The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 122: Week 1 NFL Lines With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: September 8, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons returns with Cousin Sal to dish out the best bets for Week 1 of the 2016 NFL season. The duo discuss Jameis Winston's breakout in Year 2, the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds, Aaron Rodgers's return to form (19:00), the Browns with Robert Griffin III (31:00), Matt Ryan's elite status (37:00), Russell Wilson's MVP potential (41:00), Captain Gronkowski (51:00), Garoppolo's Pats (56:00), and the need for two Monday Night Football games (1:01:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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You need it for Monday Night Football. Start watching for seven days free at Sling.com slash Bill Simmons. Get Sling TV on your favorite device. Restrictions apply. And since we're here, my new HBO show, Any Given Wednesday, returned this week with a football show. You like football, Sal. Yeah, I'm taking it in this year. Yeah, football.

You should try it. It's a really good sport. We had Malcolm Gladwell, DeMora Smith, and Jay Glazer. Watch the re-airs on HBO. Watch the bonus digital clips on HBO Now, HBO Go, and HBO On Demand. New episode next Wednesday, 10 p.m. And if you love football, check out TheRinger.com for some fantastic NFL preview content. I was really psyched with how good the preview content was this week.

Robert Mays, Kevin Clark, Danny Kelly, a host of others. They're also doing The Ringer NFL show as a podcast. Kevin Clark wrote a really fascinating piece today about how the 2011 CBA has made the league too young. Because of the salary cap, it's just better to have young guys. And all these veterans are losing their job two years early. And then you have these guys who don't know what the F they're doing. They're getting thrown in. They're now the starting left guard, the nickelback and the coaches don't know how to coach them

and they're not allowed to coach them for three months during the offseason and it's just raw everyone's raw I think you're a little raw you haven't even introduced me yet because we haven't played my music yet let's do it, Cousin Sal, week one, we're off.

Yeah. Clear enough for you. All right. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Season 10. Wow. Season 10.

My daughter's now 11 1⁄2. Your son is now 11 1⁄2 because they're almost exactly the same age. We have five kids between us. Yeah. We each own a house. We'll have six. You'll have another one. I might.

Really? Just might. Wow, I was kidding. Not with my wife. I was thinking of somebody else. I see. Okay. All right.

So every year we guess the lines on Monday. We would guess the lines. Oh, what are the lines going to be this week? But now we're doing it on Wednesday late afternoon. We're going to run it on Thursday morning. I'm a little off my game. I don't know. It's like a time zone thing.

It's like West Coast flying to East Coast. I'm not used to guessing the lines. I was off too. I think they're screwing around with a few of these games already. Already the fix is in. You think the casinos are off? What's going on? I think, you know, the men they don't like to talk about who run these games and pay people off. They're, yeah.

The gambling public? They're at it. Yeah. Well, let's just go through it. First of all, since we did our podcast last week, I've changed my mind on a couple things. You have? What? And as you know, I like to gamble in September based on what I think is going to happen.

I like to stick to my guns. Right. I like to back a few teams, either four against them and ride them, not get dissuaded by one week, stuff like that. What a wild plan. I've never heard anything like that. I know. Well, most people just go week by week. I'm not going to get thrown off because you sucked in week one.

I mean, I still believe. I think I like Tampa Bay. Oh. Yeah. It's like a wild card team. Do you? Yeah. You know why?

You screwed up the coach. You thought Lovie Smith was still the coach. I know. Well, once I found out he wasn't the coach, that made me like them more. That was the one thing I missed somehow. I wasn't going to tell you until week eight or so. No, you knew? Why didn't you let me say it?

I was looking at my cards or something, but yeah, it's Dirk Cutter. Dirk Cutter. Yeah. Dirk Cutter. That's a good football name. Yeah, it's a really good name. He could take them to a wild card.

So, you know, I like following storylines. When I pick who's going to make wild card, I like big picture picture stuff which is totally the wrong way to do it I admit I like slimmed down Jameis oh really? I like year two Jameis I like Jameis just with a swagger

and big receivers and he's in a shitty division just doing Jameis things that makes sense to me as an angle and I've swung back and forth on the Raiders, who were initially the bandwagon sleeper team. Then there was a backlash to the bandwagon. I'm going the other way.

I just think they're going to be good. You like them? I'm not scared by the backlash. I think they have a lot of good football players. The NFC, I think the sixth spot could be nine and seven. I don't think, I mean, after maybe, you know, Panthers, Packers, whoever you like between Seattle, Arizona,

I think there's a drop-off after that. Would it be weird if I turned the lights off? I feel like it's too bright in here. Coming on to me? This is weird. What's going on? Let's turn them off. All right.

That's better. I have these in my office. But we don't have to sit on the same couch now. What are you doing? Yeah. Can I pour you a glass of wine? So that's another thing I was thinking. I have these in my office but we don't have to sit on the same couch now what are you doing yeah can I pour you a glass of wine so that's another thing I was thinking

Oakland huh okay I think the NFC is going to be better than the AFC oh you do yeah I think those top teams

might be but I think like the top eight or nine in the NFC if you stack them against the top eight or nine in the AFC

I just like the top eight or nine in the NFC more remember you stack them against the top eight or nine in the AFC, I just like the top eight or nine in the NFC more. Remember we've had those years where we look at it and anytime the two conferences play, sometimes it leans one way. Maybe this is the NFC's year. Really? I had trouble coming up with six playoff teams in the NFC. Well, which two divisions did you give two playoff teams?

AFC North? So I think AFC North guaranteed two playoff teams. Right. And everyone has Pittsburgh penciled in, which I get. But I had Glazer on my show this week. Glazer really liked the Ravens as a sleeper. Now, the definition of a sleeper is nobody's talking about them. They're sleeping.

The Ravens are a good sleeper. I couldn't totally talk myself into it, but it made me think like they had the year from hell last year they had you know a couple good draft picks couple good signings they got better receivers for flacco he loves to throw the long ball yeah um nobody's talking about him good coach hey i i considered it i couldn't talk about it it's got to be pittsburgh cincinnati yeah they signed older free agents. It's weird when they cut their number one running back. Four sets, all of a sudden gone.

Everyone fell in love with him. I don't know if that ever works out. You don't think that bodes well? I don't know. Their last four games are like New England at Pittsburgh and at Cincinnati are three of the last four. It could be all right. And I think two come out of the AFC West.

Right. And I think I'm going with KC and Oakland. KC's my Super Bowl winning team. Oh, okay. I think that's the way to go. 23-1. 23-1. So you're betting on Andy Reid?

Yeah. Do you want to set the money on fire right now? Or what do you want to do with it? Let's get it out on fire. Yeah, no, I think we spoke about this last week they they get that those years where they're eight and one nine and one and they just can't finish the job well especially if denver's not good which right is conceivable because they definitely got worse on defense there's no question i was talking to mays today because i called mays because he did a really

good job with the preview and i was proud proud of him. So I called him. And he was saying, we were talking about neither of us like Denver. And the Pythagorean formula, which is a good indicator of whether a team overachieved or underachieved. Their Pythagorean formula last year was 9.7 wins. So they overachieved by like two wins. The defense is worse. They lost a couple guys. Yeah.

The quarterback situation. Everyone's like, well, they didn't have a quarterback last year. At least Manning could go up to the line and do Omaha and Audible and kind of be like, oh, they're going to run. I'm going to call a pass play. Even if it takes me seven seconds to throw the pass, at least it's the right play. Now they're asking this dude that I have people in my life who love college football and nobody had heard of Trevor Simeon.

Who is this guy? And this is the guy they're banking on. I don't know. You could talk me into like 6 and 10 with this team. I think they're getting too cute. And that's not to say that Mark Sanchez was going to save the franchise, but they're really going about it a weird way. Simeon and Paxton Lynch, and that's what we're going with.

We don't care what anyone says. We're that good on defense. It's like, oh, boy, that worked last year. I don't see it happening again. Now, since the last time we did a pod, Bradford got traded to Minnesota. Right. One of my least favorites. I'm sure he's a nice person.

I have nothing against him as a human being. No, terrible, terrible jerk. He's cost me a lot of money over the years. And then it swung the other way once i started gambling against him so i'm probably even now with sam bradford yeah i don't think he's the answer you had me i don't see you had me thinking you had me well actually the trade hadn't happened yet but you you were okay with sean hill leading that team i mean you, we're not coaching. We're not in practice every day watching Sean Hill run drills and stuff like that.

But the statistical argument was irrefutable. Like, Sean Hill had better stats and a better win-loss record than Sam Bradford. And I've also watched Sam Bradford. I just don't like him. I think he's like Captain Checkdown. I'm not a fan. I just wonder if that's the kind of team and

i hate when people say can manage a quarterback and manage a team and do well and i think that's one of those teams that all you have to do is manage and it'll be fine that front seven so strong but whereas like arizona maze and i were talking because i don't have arizona i'm taking two chances with the playoff teams arizona and, I just have them out. I did research, though. Last decade, remember every year six or seven teams who made the playoffs got bounced the next year. Yeah. Now it's four. If you look, year after year, seven or eight teams who made the playoffs the year before come back the next year and make it again.

There were only two surprises, the Texans and the Redskins. And that was because big injuries in the division. Right. So I'm looking at the Cardinals, and the difference between the Cardinals and the Vikings, Mays pointed out, is that if Palmer gets hurt, or if Palmer breaks down, or if Palmer sucks, or if he has residue, whatever, from last season,

they're screwed. Because their whole offense revolves around him being able to spread the ball around and do his stuff. Whereas Minnesota, they kind of survived with Bridgewater. That's all fine. I get it. But everyone's leaving out the part that it's a bad omen for your season when your quarterback's knee basically explodes 10 days before the season. I don't like the omen. Yeah.

And I had them as a regressing team possibly anyway. I wasn't in love with that team. Minnesota, you saying? Yeah. Yeah. I thought they overachieved last year. I like Zimmer, though. I like Zimmer, too.

There's always a coach that rises. Look what he did with this garbage team. Yeah. Garbage team with Adrian Peterson. You're going to have to score points, though. Yeah. Yeah. Plus, Peterson's 32. How long does that keep going? It could be last year's Bron Peterson. You're going to have to score points, though. Yeah. Plus, Peterson's 32.

How long does that keep going? It could be last year's Broncos. I don't know. So who do you have as your two NFC wildcards? Well, I had the Cowboys, but now it's going to be Seattle and Minnesota still with 10 wins. I revealed my Super Bowl pick on my HBO show which has not aired yet so you haven't seen it

you want to whisper it to me? I'm not going to tell you because by the time people hear this they've already heard the show I have the Patriots in the AFC what? yeah I know I know

unorthodox wow talk about a sleeper waiting for them in the NFC the New York football giants oh god the trilogy is going to happen, Sal. It's going to happen. It's destined.

Another Super Bowl no one could root for. Oh, stop it. No one could root for you. Everyone would root for Tom Brady to get his revenge and get the trophy from Goodell. That would be fun to see. Yeah. But then I think he would have to drop it and break his foot. I don't know what we'd be happy with.

So who did you have KC playing? KC against Green Bay. Super Bowl I rematch. Why is everybody penciling Green Bay into the Super Bowl? I don't know. What am I missing? Clay Matthews is healthy, and Aaron Rodgers is healthy, and Jordy Nelson. You know, I think they're okay.

I think they'll do enough. I think that's a team that wins 10 by accident. Isn't Mike McCarthy making one Super Bowl? Isn't that enough? Isn't that enough for Mike McCarthy? His next stop is going to be like Arizona State? Yeah. Come on.

I don't know. Why? What do you think? They win nine games? No. I mean, the good thing for them is it looks like they're in pretty good shape in that division. Right. Chicago and Detroit are cross-offs.

Right. Philly's a cross-off. I told you my parlay.-offs. Philly's a cross-off. I told you my parlay. New Orleans is a cross-off. With the no playoff. Who was it? I thought we did it. Am I in on that?

We didn't do it yet. Oh, we'll do it after we finish the podcast. And the Niners. Lions, Browns, 49ers. To not make the playoffs. Genius. Those three teams don't win 10 games combined. Can we throw the Eagles in there?

Yeah, we could. The Eagles are trading guys they picked in the second round last year for like fifth round picks and just giving guys these teams

like the Browns are doing that too. They're just giving these guys away for 40 cents a dollar. Eagles traded with the Patriots I think just that alone

you cross them off the list. Yeah, that's a bad idea. Never works out. Thursday night that's a bad idea. It never works out. Thursday night. Let's go to week one. All right, week one. And how we're going to do this is we're going to talk about, we're going to say what we guessed the lines were and then what the line was.

But we have an extra wrinkle, courtesy of our friend Dan Sanborn. What did Dan Sanborn say? The Thursday night pick sponsored by Don Julio. Really? The Don Julio Thursday night shot of the week. We haven't come up with a name yet. Finally, Dan Sanborn comes through for us. I know.

Well, I mean, you know, he's, where did he place in character of the year? He was up there. Was he like top 10? Well, he revealed he has sex four to six times a week with his wife. I don't know if Don Julio knows about that. Did he reveal that on a podcast or are we revealing that now? No, I think everyone should know by now. That was the Don Julio shot of the week a couple weeks ago.

Yeah, so the Don Julio Thursday night shot of the week. Panthers at Broncos. I had the Panthers favored by two and a half, would you say? I also had two and a half, so we're going to tie right off the bat, the first one. And it's three. Panthers are favored on the road against the Super Bowl champs. I don't know if you know this, these two

teams played in the Super Bowl. What? Yeah, this is a rematch. Are we going to watch with Tony Kornheiser and Jeffrey Ross? That would be something. We should get together every year when they play. I still feel like if they played that game 10 times, I think Cam has seven good games out of the 10. Yeah.

And then, or no, maybe three good games out of the 10, four decent ones, and then three where it plays out like it played out that, where it's just bad play, bad play, uh-oh, oh no oh no things are melting that and it just snowballed it's just unbelievable he shouldn't have been that bad in that game right both defenses were great and Peyton Manning he really just got got in his own head and said this first drive just has to be big for me and then you know the butterflies will be all over the place and we're going to win this game. I just have to drive us down the field. And that's all he really did, right? That's so sad.

It was a game managing. He barely even managed it. Right. I mean, he was on the Tesla autopilot and a couple of times almost rear-ended somebody anyway, but somehow got back to his house. Yeah, Jeff Torborg managed it, I think. Well, so for the Don Julio Thursday night shot. What do we do? We have to actually make a pick for this game.

Oh, we do? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I'm just adding that wrinkle. I'm playing it by ear. That's fine. I like the Panthers.

Me too. I think Trevor Simeon ends up being terrible in this game. And Bronco fans go, oh, yeah, we have a seventh round pick as our QB. This probably might not go that well. Right. Me too. And then seeds of doubt and all that stuff. I don't think Carolina's 15-1, but I think they're a solid team this year.

They have revenge. The only thing I would say about this, the home team almost always wins this Thursday night game, right? That's the only thing I worry about. But the Panthers pull it out, I say. Is Al Michaels doing this game? I believe so. He's your friend. Is it NBC or CBS?

It's NBC, isn't it? I don't remember. Tate, help us out. Come on, Tate. We're going to ask for a lot of help early on here. It's on NBC. That's what I thought, yeah. No Tariqo.

No Tariqo, yeah, Al Michaels. Right. And then Tariqo and all of them were claiming, oh, no, no, we never said he was. It was like, get the hell out of here. Crazy, huh? What are you talking about? All I know is Al Michaels is just going to do well out of this.

Of course. He always does. He'll make dollars. The Sunday game. The Monday game. He'll make some dollars. The Monday crews are interesting. We'll get to that.

The Monday. Oh. Yeah. Yeah. That's always fun. All right. Sunday. Sunday.

All right. All right. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay are on a bye. What? No,. That's always fun. All right. Sunday. Sunday. All right. Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay are on a bye. What? No, no, no, no. Not yet. Okay. Buffalo at Baltimore. Buffalo at Baltimore.

So. I don't know why, but I had the Bills favored in this game, which was pretty stupid. I had the Bills by one, and I don't know why I did that. I should have guessed the Ravens by three. I guessed. I did hit this exactly. What is it? Ravens by three.

Yeah, well, I don't know what I was doing. I didn't realize that the Bills, their defense, like Darius is out for the first couple games, and they're missing dudes. A lot of defenders. The more I looked at it, the Bills might suck this year. It made me reevaluate the ricks ryan first coach fired i think this is this is gonna it could be but this is gonna be the most the most overhyped game of the week as far as results go like if the ravens win right look out

they're going to the playoffs bills win they're gonna be untouchable they even play the patriots before brady comes back like this is like the kan Kanye Bowl I think it's gonna be very overhyped the Kanye Bowl most exaggerated claim on the team's future success I think that's funny I was thinking the Raiders Saints would be the overhyped oh really that's right because if the Raiders wouldn't be like look there they go shoot out this is what and then if the Saints wouldn't be like oh the Saints Drew Brees that's interesting Drew Brees you see that contract Drew B's took it's pretty hefty right it was it was not only hefty

but it was I already won my Super Bowl ring just pay me now is that what it is that's not a contract you take when you want to win one more Super Bowl before you retire

that's a contract you take when you've already won the Super Bowl and you're good wow and you're just like yeah did he say that in the press conference

it's weird he's like guys I won in 2009 yeah 2010 2000 probably right February 2010 whatever the hell it was yeah say that in the press conference? It's weird. He's like, guys, I won in 2009. 2010? February 2010? Whatever the hell it was. Yeah. Cross off the Saints for the rest of the decade. Alright. Green Bay at Jacksonville. Green Bay at Jacksonville.

I had the Packers by four. What'd you have? I also had Packers by four. It was five in the beginning of the week. It's five and a half now. There's some Jaguars buzz, and then there's some backlash to the Jaguars buzz, and then a lot of people pointing out that Blake Bortles

is actually Blake Garbage Time Bortles, and a lot of the stats came when they were down 20 and throwing every down, all that stuff. They did add a lot of dudes, and I do like Jalen Ramsey. Yeah, they loaded up that defense they're very young defense um i do not trust blake bortles i've never believed in blake bortles i'm not taking blake bortles against aaron rogers i don't care how many points this is i'm still gonna take the packers i was uh yeah i'm gonna think about this one for a while but in the beginning of the week

i was reading about how hot it's gonna be be. Oh, the Packers players are not, they're not going to adjust to how hot it is, swamp-like conditions in Jacksonville. And then I'm like, wait a minute. Everyone practiced all summer. It's miserable heat anywhere in the country all summer long. I'm not buying into this. I'm sure they've been uncomfortable

all summer playing outdoors. You've had to spend time in the summer in Milwaukee with your lovely wife. That's where her family's from. Right. It's not freezing cold in wisconsin in august no so everyone shut up with that narrative they should be fine yeah uh yeah i i i have to say i want to see rogers kind of come back it's fun when rogers throws for 400 yards and right because 25 for 28 and it's clear that the nelson thing all of us underestimated it

everyone's like oh randall cobble just step in it's like no actually he's a slot receiver he won't step in yeah and i think it's a little bit of a knock on rogers who before last year it was like he makes every receiver better you know it's like well yeah no actually nelson's pretty good yeah you still need somebody who has some sort of separation at some point. I'm okay with either team winning this game. Really? Yeah. Either team? Yeah, in fact, I mean, there's no way that happens, right?

I don't know. There are new rules. All right, San Diego at Kansas City. My Super Bowl winner, 23-1. Against our first coach to get fired nominee, Mike McCoy, plus 500. I did a glazer bag. I fired all these questions at him. And the first coach fired, I prefaced it.

We ended up taking it out because we needed it for time. But I prefaced it with, like, I know media members hate this question because the guy has a family and blah, blah, blah. But who is going to be the first coach fired? And he immediately went into a minute long, I hate this question, these guys have a family. And it's like, look, somebody's going to get fired. Why can't we wager on this? Sure, why not?

I have nothing against Mike Bucoy's family. I just happen to think he's going to be the first coach who's going to be unemployed. And you know what? None of these guys' families like them anyway. They're home 45 minutes a week. So don't worry about the family too much. They're home and then they immediately want to get back to their family.

Or back to football and get away from their families. So don't worry about it too much. What did you have for this, San Diego, Kansas City? I had eight and a half and it feels like a tease. I went lower. I said six and a half and it is seven right now. The one thing we should point out to America, watch out for San Diego on the road road you just got to flip them san diego on the road is actually like that's

when they're free and happy when they're home that's when either 20 000 seats are are empty or there's 35 000 cowboy fans or 40 000 bears fans and they're bummed out and it's sad and i don't know i i'm for whatever reason I'm more afraid of them in road games. I agree. For some reason, that team plays like they want to move to L.A. Actually, let's talk this through so we don't do it this weekend. So I talk you into a tease with the Chiefs and somebody else. Okay.

They're up 20-0 at halftime. You're all fired up about your Super Bowl bet. It's great. I'm almost ready to cross it off. Turn the game. Four TVs. It's off the TVs. And then at about 12.50 our time, it's like, let's go to KC where Phillip Rivers is bringing

the Chargers back. And he's doing garbage Phil Rivers things. Travis Benjamin, what a signing this is. Watch this. Phil Rivers, it bounces off a helmet and goes right into the hands of Antonio Gates. And then we win by three. Oh, no.

What would the tees be? Oh, one, half, whatever. Well, it goes into OT, and it's a tie. Whatever happens where we lose. We have a better kicker. We have a better kicker. We'll be all right. So we need a second team on the teaser.

You don't like Green Bay, right? No, hold this thought. Sal, our wives love wine. Yeah, they do. They love whining about our faults, and they love wine. I wrote that ahead of time. I'm not good enough to add to that. I think we need to sign them

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They're like, don't even meet me at the house. Where are you coming from? I'll come to you. Forget about the free shipping. Right at the light. Yeah. All right, back to the games. Oakland and New Orleans.

This is the one you learn a lot. There's a lot to learn. I had the Saints by three and a half because I think the gambling public still respects the Saints, and I don't get it. You won this one. I said Saints by four. Yeah. And it's Saints by only one. Raiders bandwagon.

Raiders bandwagon. Maybe Vegas is being a little generous to Oakland because they want them to move there. Do we ever think that? Oh, wow. It's like a Jedi mind check? Yeah, come on. Look, we favor you every game almost. Oakland plays the NFC South and the AFC South.

And they play San Diego twice. Yeah. There's your case right there for 10 wins. Right. Those 12 games I just listed could be 10-2. They had a weird thing with 1 o'clock games or something. Yeah, you said that last week. 5, 1 o'clock, 1 p.m. games. But most of them are against crap teams. Yeah. So, they might

be okay. Three of the first four on the road, if they get by that stretch, they'll be alright. I have another prediction. I think Khalil Mack replaces J.J. Watt as the new guy that people just gush about. Yeah. Let's bet that. On the shows? I think it was like plus 550 or something. Oh, Khalil Mack! Oh my God! I'm actually glad ESPN

mixed it up with their Sunday show. I always liked Randy Moss. Yeah. I mean, that was not. Oh, my God. I'm actually glad ESPN mixed it up with their Sunday show. I always liked Randy Moss. Yeah. I mean, that was not by design, right? They kind of lucked into that. Which one? They got Randy Moss. Well, they brought Keyshawn back.

I can't even keep track of who they did. I don't think Dilfer was on there last year. Oh, he wasn't? Keyshawn's out. Yeah. I really like Chris Carter, but I don't know. Change is good sometimes. And that show, I thought it lost its luster. Although, do you even watch the Sunday shows? No, I don't know. Change is good sometimes, and that show I thought it lost its luster.

Although, do you even watch the Sunday shows? No, I don't think I do. I'm driving to where we watch the games, but yeah, I don't know. I feel like the ESPN show is the only show I'd watch because it's on so early. That's true. Come in. By 9 o'clock, I'm in full fantasy gambling research mode.

Checking stuff out. All right. Chicago and Houston. Texans by 7.5 over Chicago. Checking stuff out. And everything. All right, keep going. Chicago and Houston. Texans by seven and a half over Chicago. You win this one. I went way low. I said three and a half, and it's six. And I don't like it.

I don't know. So we're in this wins pool. Oh, yeah. That's really fun. That I think we've talked about in the pod, where there's 10 teams. You should post the numbers. I'm going to post it on Facebook tonight actually.

10 teams and you get assigned by whatever your order is you get you have to pick in these three spots. So I had 10, 12, and 24 were my three teams. Three spots I got to pick in. And you were like 7, 11, and 26.

7, 11, and 28. So. 7, 11, and 28. So I'm 10. I know you're 11. And then I'm 12. You really think you pulled one over on me here. Go ahead. No. I really want to take Houston 10.

And you had said on the podcast we did last week that you didn't like Houston. You liked Indianapolis. I'm like, this is great. I'm going to take Houston 12, so I won't take Houston. Wow. And then I'm picking between the Giants and Vikings, and I spent, I don't know, 20 solid minutes trying to figure out if you like the Giants or the Vikings.

It's one of those drafts that goes anywhere from an hour to six days. Right, just on email. Yeah. And it's just total wins. You pick the three teams, add the wins up at the end of the year, and you got to get to around 30. Oh, you think that high? Yeah, I on email. And it's just total wins. You pick the three teams, add the wins up at the end of the year, and you got to get to around 30. Oh, you think that high? Yeah, I think 30.

Oh, I thought it was like 28, 7. So I think the Giants, I left you with the Vikings because I just wasn't going to let Sam Bradford ruin my wins poll. I just couldn't do it mentally. So I think if I get 10 from the Giants. You have Houston too? I get 11 from Houston. I get 9 from Tampa.

I get to 30. I'm not saying it'll happen, but that's what I need. Who are your three? I don't know I get 11 from Houston. I get 9 from Tampa. I get to 30. That's not going to happen, but that's what I need. Who are your three? I don't know about your 11 from Houston. I had Kansas City, the Super Bowl champions. So you need 13 from them. I probably should get 13 from them. Minnesota.

You need 10 or 11. And then, boy, when you get down to the 28 team, it's rough. I had, who did I even have? Philly? Yeah, I think you took Philly. Or the Rams? No, Daniel took the Rams. I was surprised

the Titans went to 30. I almost took them at 24. Before, yeah. I took the Bucs. I like the Bucs as we discussed. Yeah. I don't know about this.

This seems high, this line. There's some Derrick Henry buzz now. Are you worried about our Ezekiel Elliott rookie of the year bet at all? No, no. A lot of Derrick Henry buzz. How many touches worried about our Ezekiel Elliott Rookie of the Year bet at all? No, no. A lot of Derrick Henry buzz.

How many touches are you going to get? I don't know. DeMarco Murray pulls a hamstring like that. That guy gets hurt half the time anyway. Houston's first six, we should just mention. Home for Chicago, home for KC, at New England against Garoppolo. And that's on a Thursday. Home for Tennessee, at Minnesota, and then's on a Thursday. Home for Tennessee at Minnesota,

and then home Sunday night against Indianapolis. They play a first-place schedule. They paid their quarterback $72 million for four years. He's taken 620 snaps. I don't think this works out. You watched him, though, right? Sure. Did you feel like he was competent?

I did, but I went in waves with him, as did his team you know like didn't i think he didn't finish it off when he should have i like him i like him i'm in on all right yeah more mill was a good signing by the way uh glazer trained jadavian clowny he did because he has all these guys that he trains at his mma gym he said the guy's gonna be a beast wow now who knows if it'll happen but he's just adamant he's like this guy's phenomenal shape this guy's ready to be something he's gonna get a lot of unsportsmanlike conduct

yeah he's ready to put Sue as like the dick stomper Cleveland at Philly so this is interesting because Cleveland has both first-round picks. So, they literally can't lose. And Philly, they could have back-to-back first-round picks.

They could have the first and second picks in the draft. That's going to happen. The Niners are going to have their say. Right. And maybe, who else? If you're Cleveland, do you want the first two picks? Because it's so much pressure there. Just so much pressure.

You know you're going to screw it up. Didn't we really create the Cleveland Browns to have the first ever scenario where the same team has the first and second picks and somehow whiffs on both? Maybe so. It feels like their destiny. Right. Yeah, let them do it already. That'd be funny. cleveland really doesn't

care about this season i mean they've been it seems like it's going to be bob griffin and then just them throwing shit against the fan i mean they took d podesto a baseball guy in there who's into numbers and rebuilding teams and it's weird to say that they're gonna have a rebuilding year but here it comes i had the eagles by six i said. I guess that Vegas was psyched out by the Browns. What did I have? I thought you had four. All right. I have four.

Whatever I said to you. Yeah. It's better if you have four. I had four also. It's three and a half. Okay. So we tied that one. I had the Eagles by four.

Yeah. In a way, this is the most interesting game on the slate. They give Carson Wentz the ball. In what way? He's favored. He's the only first game quarterback that's favored this week. Yeah. And he hasn't really played in the preseason, right?

No, I just think he did something to his ribs. I think one of these teams is on his way to three wins. Neither are going to make the playoffs. The other's on their way to two. Yeah, the other's on the one and a half. This will decide who goes three and 13 or two and 14. I'm interested in this, though. I don't know why.

I feel bad. I have so many Philly fans. I don't know why. I feel bad. I have so many Philly fans in my life. Yeah, get rid of them. Now it's like, do you even get together? There's six Philly fans in the Ringer Any Given Wednesday universe. Do they even get together and be like, hey, guys, where are you watching the Eagles game? Like, who would do that?

Right. They may have the best defense in the NFC East. I don't know if that's not saying a whole lot, but that could carry them for a few games. So you're predicting some friskiness. Maybe. Okay. Minnesota, Tennessee. Oh, man.

So I had the Titans getting one and a half at home. So we split this. I had them getting two and a half, and it's two right now. Do you like the Titans in this game? A little bit. We're going to have two home dogs win at least, right? It probably makes sense to take all underdogs this week,

although there are many low spreads, but do you feel between Jacksonville over Green Bay or Tennessee over Minnesota, if you go money line, I think you're going to win one of those. It's not going to be a great money line. It's not a ton, but I do think there's an upset in there somewhere. you think bradford has the dick t's performance to reel in

the vikings fans before he that's the phrase for you huh dictate that's second time i said that and the lights are low yeah the way to the can i pour you some more club w Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Oh, my team. This is your team. The year of Jameis. Tampa's first five. At Atlanta. At Arizona.

Home for the Rams. Home for Denver. At Carolina. If they can get through this two and three, I think they get the wild card. They have to go at least two and three. I have Tampa getting six. Yeah, I had Tampa getting five, and it's only Atlanta minus three. Yeah.

The fix is in that game. I don't know. Or Atlanta's terrible. Well, I don't trust it. Matt Ryan traditionally kills Tampa Bay in these games. Here's the part where I would ask you, are we sure Matt Ryan's good? I'm actually sure.

I don't need to ask. You're sure he's not good? I'm sure he's not good. No, I know. He used to be good. I don't know what happened. He's not good anymore. He beats up his team.

Julio Jones beats up the Bucs. He's a little banged up, but I don't know why it's three. I would stay away. This is my first stay away. Tate, you in on Jameis? I'm in. Tate's in. You love it. Tate's in. Tate and I are in on Jameis? I'm in. Tate's in. You love it.

Tate's in. Tate and I are in on Jameis. He's thinner than the crab legs he used to steal. I don't know. I think he needs to bulk up a little. All right. That was a good one. Cincinnati.

Thank you. Cincinnati at the Jets. So this feels a little playoff-y to me, this one. Yeah? I'm excited for this one. I had the Bengals laying two and a half at the Jets. Good job by you. It's exactly two and a half.

I had Jets minus two. I was way off on this. Way off. I don't think Buffalo's going to be good, and I don't think Miami's going to be good. And I was like, ah ah maybe the Jets can go like 9-7 and then I realized they went 10-6 last year which I totally

forgot and they almost made the playoffs they blew it, they were in the driver's seat it was so uninteresting even as it was happening that I just forgot the whole thing well we went over their first six and it doesn't get worse, Cincy at Buffalo at KC, Seattle at Pittsburgh at Arizona it doesn't get worse since he at buffalo at kc seattle at pittsburgh at arizona that doesn't get worse than that that's tough and the fitzpatrick thing yeah

anytime your facial hair gets too crazy when you're an athlete it's usually a sign of it's important of bad things to come exactly it's one thing to have the facial hair but then when it really except when you're really going for it. Except when your Red Sox did that with the burnt helmets and nobody shaved for seven and a half years. It worked for them. Which time? I don't know. Oh, the playoff beards in 13. Yeah, right.

Yeah. It doesn't usually work. You know what? I'm with you. Not only do I, you completely changed my mind. I'm in on the Jets. I think they go 12 and four. Are you in on?

I still have my beards Red Sox t-shirt. I'll say this. I think Brandon Marshall's the best TV analyst out there. He's unbelievable. He's excellent. You don't watch Inside the NFL. I do. I'm taping it this year.

JB is back. JB's back. He's back. What happened to the other guy? They brought him on in a very awkward beginning to the segment, Adam Shine. They're like, don't think Adam Shine's out. In fact, Adam, come in here. And they're like, you're going to be doing other stuff behind the scenes, right?

He's like, yeah, yeah, I'll be around. Like, oh, boy. That's a great deal of fun. But Brandon Marshall, you should have him on. You have that show. Unfortunately, my show is HBO, and his show is Showtime, which is an obstacle. What's it called? Every Other Wednesday?

Every Other Wednesday. You should have him on Every Other Wednesday. I should have him on Every Other Wednesday. I've not yet seen it. I've heard good things. It's okay. Try to get Brandon Marshall on. You know what's interesting is there's a whole slew of great TV color guys coming.

Like in basketball, I think there's going to be a bunch of them that are on their way. Yeah, I think Dwayne Wade could be really good. I don't know when he's going to actually do it, but Kobe could be good. They should have a draft for that. For the next gray color guy. Yeah, like the network's draft, this Ford. Well, what's Peyton Manning doing? I mean, what a dick.

What do you want him to do? He can't do anything right. Is he calling you now? No, this is my annual. This call from my wife during the podcast is presented by Don Julio. She's waiting for her wine. Now, what... Peyton Manning, really? He's not gonna

be on a TV studio show or announce games? He has to do it right away. The fuck, Peyton Manning? He can't take a year off. Take a year off from what? He's just home? What's he doing? You just want to make fun of him. I don't want to make fun of him. I thought he was gonna be really good. He did the Rob Lowe roast, for God's sakes.

He can't sit in a booth with, like, freaking, I don't know, anybody? He's got the DirecTV commercials. Can't be with Kevin Burkhart announcing some Niners-Cardinals game? All right, yeah. Peyton, stop being such a dick. Come on, Peyton Manning. Jesus. Come on, step it up.

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All right. Let's keep going. Late afternoon games now. Miami at Seattle. We're in the late afternoon now. We made it. So what was the one o'clock game? Of course, there's a full slate, and they're only giving us three late afternoon games.

Typical. So what was the best game? Cincy Jets? Best game? I like Cleveland-Philly, but yeah, Cincy Jets. That's terrible. You're a masochist. Cincy Jets? Best game? I like Cleveland-Philly, but... That's terrible. You're a masochist. Cincy Jets is the best. Okay.

All right. Late afternoon. Three games. This is not a great game. This is the suicide pool darling. Which one? Miami at Seattle. Oh, this is it.

Yeah. Yeah, this is the one. Elimination pool. How many different names do we have now to be politically correct about the suicide pool? Oh, yeah, I shouldn't call it suicide pool, right? I don't care if you call it suicide pool. That's what I call it. But elimination pool and like a... Knockout.

Knockout. Then there's a confidence pool. Right. There's a lot of pools. I need to work on all these stupid names. I have the Seahawks and my MVP pick Russell Wilson laying 8.5 to the Miami Dolphins

I went a little higher I said 9 and it's 10.5 that rules them out for the tease I want to do with KC you think so? you don't think they just went by a touchdown? you're fine? I don't know if I trust the Seahawks yet

we don't do the tease we always go 7-1 or 7.5-1 fine. I don't know if I trust the Seahawks yet. We don't do the tees. We always go seven to one or seven and a half to one and a half. We don't do 10 to four. The four makes me nervous because that's when the Ryan Tannehill garbage time TD at the end. Yeah. Do you think there's a chance that Marshawn Lynch will be a Patriot in like four weeks? Oh, that could be. Like a 10% chance?

15%? How hasn't that happened yet? We signed Bishop Sankey for our practice squad. I would say we're almost desperate. He could be the quarterback. You have to grapple a little craft to that this week. Well, we have Jacoby, the other Jacoby. Oh, you do, right?

Not Dave Jacoby, but Jacoby, whatever, Jacoby Brissett. Is that his name? I just call him Jacoby. NC State, look at... Tate Lively at Tate. Tate lit up right there. Yeah, I don't know about. One of my Pats predictions is I think Garoppolo does better than people expect for these first four games.

In between week four and week five, Belichick ships him out for a second for the Bradford deal to somebody. Because this is interesting because the next game's Giants at my beloved Dallas Cowboys, and I was going to make you a side bet. Dak against Garoppolo. Who has better stats? We could use any quarterback measurement you want. I don't care. You're going to be mad at me.

I've done kind of a 180 on Dak. Oh, you like him. You didn't like him last week. So on my HBO show this week, Glazer did this whole gushing monologue about Dak and how tough it is to be the guy in Dallas. You're the Dallas QB. It's an extra responsibility. Some guys can't handle it.

He said it was like being the Yankees shortstop, different famous jobs. And he's like, this kid's got it. He's got something about him. And he could see it. And the other guys on the team feel that way and I'm like, so I went home, did some DAC research.

I like the quotes. It reminded me a little of my old man crests, Russell, Hustle, and Bustle in 2012. That's what I thought. Everyone talking about what a leader he is

and he's unflappable. A lot of unflappables thrown around with Dak Prescott. Very poised. Poised. Nice to see if the offensive line breaks down, which shouldn't happen much. He's not at a loss.

A few doesn't seem like a rookie. Right. A few of those. So I don't know. Maybe reconsider. What's the cutoff for Romo coming back? Five and three? Six and two?

I think five and three is still Romo's job. Romo should do TV will you stop no he should do TV he is he's gonna be on your TV throwing touchdown passes I would rather he was on my show I just think his body

is telling him something how many times can he get hurt he had to have his collarbone shaved let me say he's gonna be on TV for 25 years yeah he'll do that

when he does that but mentally he's not even close to retiring. He has a compressed, fractured vertebrae. These guys are tough. They'll be fine. What'd you have for this line? Giants or Dallas? I had the Giants by three at Dallas.

I had two and a half, and it's one and a half, so I get it. It's a tough one. I said to Mays today as we were talking that for whatever reason in September

with the NFC East there's a game either week one or week two that completely locks down the playoff picture for some reason

and we get to week 16 week 17 it's like ah remember in week two when they that was it

you think this is it I wonder if this could be the game like you're up the whole game and something stupid happens or i'm just giants are up or eli mismanages another two minute drill but it it does feel like these september nfc east games they come back i mean more right they they rear their ugly head yeah they last they linger a lot of ugly heads on that giant team. I hate losing to them, but I'm just glad it's not a night game. Eli's the last

Manny now. I don't know about that. You think? Yeah, the last NFL Manny. This is it. There'll be one. Spreading his wings. That's what Peyton's doing. You hate the Giants. You're not rational about them. No, I can't. What scares you about the Giants? Well, they did a lot this year. They did a lot.

They signed some free agents. They signed some dudes. Yeah, I don't like that. Everyone likes their receiver, Shepard. Shepard could be good. They like Shepard. I think he's 40-1 for Rookie of the Year. A lot of Shepard buzz. Take a flyer on him. Victor Cruz is probably back.

I was like the last person who realized that Reuben Randall wasn't good. You were the last one? He's one of those guys he had such a great name, I just assumed he was good. I didn't realize he was terrible. He got back. Reuben Randall, how could he be back? What a great name. He got by on his name. So they replaced Randall with Shepard, and

Shepard does stuff. Yeah. They got Vernon, a defensive end from Miami. Jenkins, a cornerback from the Rams. They lost Amokumura and Ayers. But 6-10. I think they get to 10 wins, unfortunately. Do you think JPP, the fact that he's about to win a $120 million lawsuit against ESPN is going to hurt his desire for football?

Is he really? Is that what it is? This lawsuit he's filing, it has a chance to do pretty well. That's more than you're going to get from them, I think. I think my statute of limitations passed. I might have one more month.

I would lose a finger for $120 million. Would you? I would definitely lose a digit. I don't think there's any question. I could just type with one hand yeah what a deal yeah thanks espn uh detroit indian apple detroit it's the first year neither of us yeah we could either whatever yeah whatever yeah what could go wrong let's do it it. Detroit and Indianapolis. I have the Colts favored by seven.

I forgot. This is one of my hot takes. I think the Colts are going to suck. Well, so does Vegas because I had six and it's three and a half. Yeah. Detroit is, you know, I went by win. Detroit's not good either. I cheated a little. I'm going to do the lines by win expectancy.

Like, what is Detroit? Aren't they like five and a half or something? Mays had them higher than I expected in his preview because they have some good players on both sides of the ball, but I had just mentally crossed them off. Oh, they're over under seven. Wow. Yeah.

Is that right? Bears, you know what would be fun if they had combined over-unders for shitty teams? Like Bears-Lions combined. If I gave you 13, would you go under or over? 13's a good number. I think eight and five. I think I'd go under. You'd go under?

Slightly. I would stay away. Just because I think the NFC is good. This is another fixed game. Don't love the Colts here. The Colts. So one thing that people always forget when they're doing picks and stuff for this first month is you've got to look at the suspensions and the injuries.

Sure. And the Colts got annihilated for September. So I'd watch out for that. I think they lost four of their better starters. Right. And the tight end is banged up too. Yeah. I would put a red flag, be careful on this one. Also, I hate to say it because I loved watching him play. One of my favorites, but I think Calvin Johnson,

possible Ewing Theory candidate. Oh, really? What the fuck did they ever win with Calvin Johnson? Did they ever win a playoff game with him? He had one of his worst years, Stafford, last year with Calvin Johnson. And then they got Jim Bob Cooter, who every talking head just goes crazy. Yeah. Jim Bob Cooter.

And Cooter's in there now. It's like, it's a way to be funny without just by saying somebody's name. But the guy did make a big dramatic impact on Stafford. He did, right? I'm tired of Stafford. I'm tired of Matt Ryan. I'm tired of Andy Dalton. I'm tired of that whole class of QBs and us arguing whether they're a lead or not.

Right. I'm just done. I'm done with the conversation. Matt Stafford's been in football now. This is like ninth year? Yeah. I think the jury came in with a verdict. No running back.

Can throw it, loft it up whenever he wanted. How much did Theo Reddick go for in our league? Oh, did he go? I don't even know if he went. He cut 80 passes last year. Yeah, I know. There's some good guys in the way of the Warriors. He'll be, yeah.

You know what I learned? You know, LaFell, your boy Brandon LaFell. I know. He's the second receiver for the Bengals. No one took him. I should have done more research. Yeah. I thought just because I had Tate, I thought I'd be fine. Tate's just like, get him, get him.

Tate thought we had $500. Tate was mesmerized by the surrounding. I have my man Zeke Elliott. Is he Zeke? Ezekiel? What do I call him? You can call him Zeke. E-Z?

E-Z, yeah. He's going to stay out of trouble, right? I don't know about that. Because I have him and Gronk as my best guys. Oh, that's fun. Over, under for off-field incidents between those two. It's like one and a half. Yeah.

The Pats named Gronk a captain. They did? Yeah. Captain Morgan? They vote for the captains. Yeah, he's one of the four captains. Wow. Imagine looking at Gronk for leadership.

Wow, that's interesting. Gronk, thanks for those words of wisdom you gave me last week. It's going to be some cruise. You told me that a blowjob before the night of the game is a good thing. Did he say that? No, he didn't. I'm just trying to think of what Gronk would say as a captain. I see, yeah.

Do a shot before practice today. Is he a captain because he's been on the most cruises out of anybody? Is he literally a captain? He's the only one who might take it seriously by wearing a ship captain hat to the coin toss. He's the best. It's just Goodell's going to suspend him for something, right? They have to find something. I got to say, when people get pissy about boston about all the titles that

the boston teams have won they should really be pissy about all the great characters we've had right manier amir is big poppy grock we've had some just some absolute weirdos who were great pedro for sure pedro poppy is like it's really starting to hit me. I haven't felt this way. What, him leaving? Yeah. It's like when... I remember when Rufus started to get old, and I started to think my second golden in just big picture terms of like,

oh, fuck. Rufus is 10. I don't know how many ball tosses we have left. He just dropped dead overnight. The Poppy thing, it's like, it's going to be the same thing. It's four weeks

plus playoffs. Yeah, there's that thing overnight part of it. But, you know, like, Rodriguez almost threw a no-hitter on Sunday.

Right. And my dad was here. You had a tough week. The one run loss, the A's loss, Oh, it was terrible. I scored that 27-5 and barely won the series.

But, so my dad and my stepmom were here. And we're all going to go out for this late brunch. one run loss the A's I was terrible I scored them 27 to 5 and barely won the series but so my dad and my stepmom were here and we're all gonna go out for this late brunch and we're through four innings and Rodriguez doesn't have a hit yet and I'm like

I'm not leaving yeah so now my wife and my stepmom are mad at me and they're like well it's the fourth inning how do you know he's gonna throw

no hitter I'm like trust me the A's are terrible and he's only at like 50 pitches like we're staying and my dad's like oh I don's only at like 50 pitches. Like, we're staying. And my dad's like, oh,

I don't know. Meanwhile, he totally wants to stay. Like, he totally sold it on the river. So anyway, Rodriguez gets to the eighth inning, line drive,

bounces off his foot. He catches it, throws, throws the guy out, instant replay, they reverse it. And they cut, they come out of commercial

and Ortiz is just sitting next to him and Rodriguez is bummed out and Ortiz is just like doing the big brother Rodriguez is bummed out and Ortiz is just like doing the big brother thing and that's when it hit me I was like fuck you got sad no more big brothers it's just like he was like the greatest guy to have in the dugout did the Mets ever have a guy like that in the dugout no not in the dugout not in the stands like he's the greatest teammate I mean Hanley Ramirez is redeemable now this guy was like everyone in the dodgers like this guy's the biggest cancer ever it's like you might as well just sign leukemia like that's

and then he goes there and now he's this happy-go-lucky first baseman and ortiz is like molded him in a i mean gary carter was a great guy for the mets but uh took shit for it right so but otherwise he was and they always said that Hernandez was the leader. And meanwhile, in the 10th inning of game six. He was in the clubhouse. He was in the clubhouse having a cigarette in the toilet. And they were like, hey, we're coming back. He's like, what?

I think he made the second out. I want to know. They'll never show this. I want to know how many guys are in the clubhouse now at any given Wednesday, any given time. There must be a bunch. Now with texting, you can't text in the dugout. So these guys must any given time like there must be a bunch texting like you can't text in the dugout so these guys must be right like they must be on the phone

well they're probably dming girls in the stands yeah right i was another guy who was in the dugout in game six was kevin mitchell oh yeah because they because he was like undressed and came back out and apparently wasn't wearing a cup and his boys were just flapping around which i have yet to look for when i watch game six because i never watch game six because it was one of the three worst moments of my life it's so good horrible just watch the end that's still my number one worst sports moment yeah that's sad that it's my best and your worst what was your is it your worst yeah it's my number more than the giants uh it's my worst ever really it's never never ever been a worst moment.

Because when you're 16, you care the most. Yeah, I guess so. I think from like 16 to 25, that's when it's like life or death. I cried three years in a row. Danny White lost the NFC Championship. Was it 79, 80, 81? You cried during Blood Diamond for Romo that time. It's my favorite South story.

Blood Diamond is the worst sporting event I've ever seen. Romo botched a fumble, then you cried at Blood Diamond five hours later. I hope Romo appreciates that even more than me naming my kid Romo. I think of it every time Blood Diamond's on cable for some reason. I always get an image of you

and your wife being confused. Very sad. You cried when Big Papi was hugging the pitcher. What do I care? Listen, I literally did. I almost cried. All right. New England, you're going to cry again when the Patriots go to Arizona this week.

I have cards by three and a half, and I like the Pets. You went low. You're going to love them at six. I went six and a half at six. Six? I'm going to convince you to do a teaser with the Cardinals. Chiefs, cards, tease? You love the Patriots.

I think I urge everybody to not write off Garoppolo. You're setting yourself up for great disappointment. Garoppolo throws nice 11 and 12-yard throws. Likes those tight ends. He could be good. So there's two scenarios here. I mean, Arizona would have been favored if Brady played, right? They still would have been favored by two or three.

That's an interesting one. I don't know. How much is Brady worth to this game? Don't you think it would have been? I think it would have been Arizona by one or pick them. So 5.5 or six? Sounds about right. It goes one of two ways, right?

And I have no idea what the outcome is. One would be Garoppolo, like the Cardinals just blow them out and everybody goes, oh my God, can the Patriots, will they win a game before Brady comes back and we go that whole way? Or, they win. And everybody's like, whoa! Garoppolo! Holy! And then it goes that way. But it feels like

it has to be one of those two ways. I think it goes the first way. Either way, it's a hot take. Everybody's just going nuts. This is one of the games that Belichick could pass Brady in everybody's eyes of putting him on the pedestal there, right? You think Belichick tries extra hard in this game

if a coach is actually able to try hard? There's a Boston element. People connected to the team, fans, the media members, people have always felt like that means a lot to Belichick. In 08, he went 11-5 with Castle. That drives me crazy. It's incredible. You watched Castle last year.

He can barely function. And Belichick should have made the play. I mean, how many teams go 11-5 and don't make the playoffs? You could gather up all the evidence in the world. All you need to know that the Patriots cheat is that Belich teams go 11-5 and don't make the playoffs? I think, you know, you could gather up all the evidence in the world. All you need to know that the Patriots cheat is that Belichick went 11-5 when Matt Cassel. Come on. That's all you ever need to know. Hey, wait.

Before we get to the Monday Night Games, you and I both got sucked into daily and weekly fantasy. Oh, we did. A little bit, yeah. DraftKings having a free week one fantasy contest. I repeat, it's free. They're offering a hundred thousand dollars in total prizes up for grabs and remember draftkings.com the destination for one week fantasy football no season-long commitments like the stupid fantasy league we're in where i'm

gonna be like two and seven i'm gonna quit and stop but i won't change my kicker and then you'll get mad at me like i like i have some moral obligation to keep changing my players. Yeah, not in DraftKings.com. You just get, you draft a fake team of real players, be their fake GM, follow that fake team live. You might win real money.

Do a contest with friends or beginners. Do a 50-50 contest. Or be like me and do a single entry league. I like those. Those are good. I did really well on a single entry league. What is that, the top 50%? I have a big DraftKings buffer. Yeah.

No, I did, it was like a top 20, but I like 800 bucks and i have all this money to to lose on on my stupid picks i made so i made a team for week one uh i won't tell you my qb or my d but i have your man elliot spencer ware antonio brown kamar aiken stefan diggs gary barnage that sounds terrible. Yeah. That's what I mean by throwing money away, because I'm not really that good at Daily Fantasy, but I want to be better at it.

Wait a minute, I don't understand that. Who's your quarterback? Well, I have a good quarterback and a good defense. Okay. They don't have a lot of money for these. Wow. Go to DraftKings.com. Use the code SIMMONS to play for free in week one's $100,000 fantasy contest.

Again, it's free. DraftKings.com. Code Simmons. Eligibility restrictions may apply. See the website for details. Monday night. I like it. Two games Monday night.

And you and I have both made this case. There should be two games every Monday night. At least. And there should be a... Two Tuesday, two Wednesday. And there should be a 9.30 a.m. game every week. Yes. We like that one, too. I like the Monday games a 9.30 a.m. game every week. Yes. We like that one, too.

I like the London games. 9.30 Pacific, yeah. 9.30, no, 9.30 Eastern. Yeah. Yes. Yeah. I like the London games. We're going to get a couple of those.

I like those. I like when weird, wonky stuff happens. So what do we got? Pittsburgh at Washington. Pittsburgh at Washington. You're going to get this one. You think I'm going to nail this one? I have the answer right here.

I said Washington minus two. I said the Skins were getting a point and a half at home. They're getting three and a half, actually. I'm going to wager on them. On Washington. I like Washington in this. What was their over-under? Their over-under was like eight.

So nobody knows what to do with the NFC East. The Redskins was seven and a half. Yeah. And Pittsburgh's was like 10 or something crazy, right? The case for Pittsburgh, which Robert Mays made to me as we were arguing about it, they had kind of the year from hell last year and they were still good. And Roethlisberger was banged up and they missed. How long did they have Le'Veon Bell was out for? Like almost half the year from hell last year and they were still good right and rothlisberger was banged up and they missed how long did they have levy on bell was out for like almost half the year right

and now it's three games yeah and they lost offensive line dudes and they're and the thinking is they're gonna be better shaped this year which means team would be better i don't i don't love pittsburgh i don't know how i know rothlisberger was banged up in the playoff game but they should have beaten den in that. They had the ball, they're over midfield, like they're driving for the winning drive. Tucson fumbles.

Yeah. And that wasn't one of the five luckiest things that happened at Denver. Oh my God, I will never get over that Denver Super Bowl. Lots of money we lost on that one. But yeah, I think,

you know, Washington plays the first place schedule now. I think we won money in that. We took the points. On the Pittsburgh-Denver? We took the points. I think we won money in that. We took the points. On the Pittsburgh Denver? We took the points. I think we did a lot of things. We had Moneyline, too, but I think we still did well.

I don't like that Pittsburgh picked up Zach Mettenberger. It seems passive-aggressive that they have a Roethlisberger and a Mettenberger. Oh, they did that? Yeah, they just want to drive everybody crazy. So that's enough reason to pick the Roethlisberger. Yeah. All right. And then the second game.

Yeah. The Rams from L.A., I'm seeing, at San Francisco. Yeah. 10-20 start East Coast time. Unbelievable. And it'll probably start at like 10-40. 10-20 football fans in New Bedford, Connecticut, Bill, after a long day at work. They have to stay up and see if Greg Zerlein kicked their fantasy team to a win.

That's crazy. It's 1040 at night. I'm wondering if Kaepernick's going to deal with that. Two in the morning. Are you kidding me? Oh, my God. What a terrible game. Yeah.

It just dawned on me like a week ago that Case Keenum is the starting quarterback for the Rams. Yeah, this is bad. I kept trying to be like, oh, the Rams will be fun. And then it's like, oh, they're going to be awful. It's a really bad quarterback game. There's some interesting girly stats, too, about how he broke off

some big runs last year, but 80% of his runs or something were two and a half yards and under. Because they can't throw the ball. So if he doesn't break through that first thing, he just goes down. I think the Rams might not be good because they can't throw the ball. So if he doesn't break through that first thing, he just goes down. I think the Rams might not be good.

I don't like them either. We discussed your first year in L.A. You're not productive. And then there's that part, too. But I mean, like, really not good. Yeah. Because initially I was thinking 8-8, 7-9. Their over-under is high.

But they might be like 3-13. They don't need – that over-under does not need to be that high. It's 7-1⁄2. I think they win like five or six games. Which, can, is there a way to bet on which Jenner slash Kardashian crosses the Rams line first?

With Todd Gurley? Oh, I don't even know. Any of them. I mean, it could be Gurley. It could be Jared Goff. That's good.

Could be Tavon Austin. Who knows? I mean, some of these guys might be married. It's not going to be Jared Goff. The Kardashians know already. He's 11. I had Rams

giving one. And you had what? A pick? No, I had I can't even see anymore. I had to pick them. Rams are giving two and a half. What? One of the home teams, one of the dogs covers this Monday night normally.

San Francisco lost some dudes. I would be more excited for them as a home dog, but they lost their two best defensive players from last year. Yeah. One guy's out for the year, the other guy's out for a month. If you're on the East Coast, I would never say skip a game, but Case Keenum, Blaine Gabbert, and Chris Berman doing play-by-play, you could skip this one.

Is Chris Berman doing play-by-play? Yeah, this is his Monday game. Are you serious? Berman, Steve Young, and Lindsey Sarniak. Wow. Well, social media will be interesting that night. Definitely. I'm going the other way. I love when Berman interesting that night. Definitely. I'm going the other way.

I love when Berman does sporting events. Yeah. He's good at it. You won't last past first quarter. You're going mute. No, you are. It's not a bad idea for them to offer a second announcing team. Yeah.

Would be my suggestion. Really, pick a name. It would probably be a safer option are they going to do that thing where they have these games on five different channels for those these two yeah you know how they do that sometimes with the college balls yeah yeah i think so they better do something it's not a good team wow that's it hold on turn the lights off. Yeah, it's very dark all of a sudden. Yeah. Wow.

All right. Yeah. I'm trying to think what else we have. That's it. That's it. We've gone over an hour, right? Week one. Week one, 10. We did it.

What time is it, Tate? Hour five. Hour five. Great. Let me plug a couple things, bro. Plug some things. You have some things to plug. Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight.

This is Thursday. Tom Hanks and Kaleo. Am I saying that right, kids? I don't know. Wait. Tom Hanks is going to be on Jimmy Kimmel Live on Thursday? You've. Tom Hanks and Kaleo. Am I saying that right, kids? I don't know. Wait, Tom Hanks is going to be on Jimmy Kimmel Live on Thursday? You've heard of him. The Tom Hanks? That's the guy.

Has he been on before? He has, right? Sully Sullenberg? Sure, he's been on. Yeah. He's been on. Explain the Sully movie to me. I think it was...

We know what happens, right? He lands the plane in the water. Yeah, but he took a lot of shit for landing the plane in the water. And I think that's the bulk of it. He could have made it back to the airport. Yeah. And he landed in the water? Yeah.

So he wastes a lot of money. He's a hero in everyone's eyes. Everyone he saved, except for... But then he was exonerated. Yeah, sure. All right. He's fine. I'm going to skip that movie.

We had an idea where Sully plays Hanks in a movie called Hanks. And he's Forrest Gump and he's everybody, you know. I just, if I ever had Hanks on my show, I would just go all cast away. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just go scene by scene until he got really freaked out. Right. He lost like 50 pounds or something?

He did. I'm sorry, I ruined your book. No, I don't care about that. No, go. He lost like 50 pounds or something? Pulled a James Winston. I'm sorry, I ruined your book. No, I don't care about that. No, go. But listen, I'm at the Cousin Sal on Twitter, but this is the important thing. Cousin Sal, sure thing. That's my Facebook page.

You're going to see my week one picks on Friday, sponsored by Dollar Shave Club and Facebook. It's going to be huge. Why did you save that for the end of the show? We should have mentioned that sooner. I don't know. When do I say that? So where can we find this? I don't know. No, Facebook. It's going to be huge. Why did you save that for the end of the show? We should have mentioned that sooner. I don't know. When did I say that? So where can we find this? I don't know. No, Facebook. On Facebook. Cousinsal's Sure Thing. That's it. So we search

what? Cousinsal's Sure Thing and this will pop up. We did a little cheating and now Facebook has helped us out and anyone who lists football, gambling or fantasy football is automatically going to get my bit thrust into their feed. So last year you were on ESPN. Yeah.

You gave your picks. You did so well that some random dude at Business Insider wrote about it every week. For Yahoo, yeah. Or Yahoo. Somebody wrote about your picks every week, which is the professional highlight of your life, basically. Definitely, definitely.

Having a gambling run that was being reported on as real news there was actually a website that or you could bet what my record was going to be every week that was pretty good that was the highlight of your life yeah nothing about it so now you've taken this act from espn the worldwide leader to facebook the most powerful media institution in the world. I miss Neil and Stan, but at 79% of my best bets over two years, I had to go and do it somewhere. This is exciting. Facebook has helped me out. Good luck, buddy.

Thanks. Well, thank you to DraftKings.com. It's the destination for one-week fantasy football. Go to DraftKings.com. Use code SIMMONS to play in week one's free $100,000 fantasy football contest. You can do that this weekend. Again, DraftKings.com, Code Simmons, eligibility restrictions may apply. See website for details.

Definitely go to Facebook.com. Yeah. Put in Sal, football, gambling, shave, picks, winners, sure thing. I'm going to give fantasy. Oh, you can win $1,000 a week. I have prop bet challenges. There's so much going on. Great news. I'm going to give fantasy. Oh, you can win $1,000 a week. I have prop bet challenges. There's so much going on. Great news.

I'm very excited for you. Thanks to HBO Now, HBO Go, and HBO On Demand. That's where you can watch complete episodes and bonus clips from my new talk show, Any Given Wednesday. Thanks to TheRinger.com and The Ringer Podcast Network. Thanks to Cousin Sal. We will be back on Friday with one more BS podcast. This is great. We're back. Year 10. We are back. Good with one more BS podcast. This is great. We're back.

Year 10. We are back. Good job by you, Billy. Good job by you. Anytime y'all want to see me again, rewind this track right here. Close your eyes. Pitching me rolling.