The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 125: Friday Rollin' With Mike Lombardi and Joe House

Episode Date: September 16, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons celebrates the triumphant return of Mike Lombardi to the pod by discussing Bill Belichick's "born to run" mentality (6:00), the Colts' double-digit deficits (12:00), the Cardinals' sloppiness (17:00), Ryan Tannehill vs. Blake Bortles (20:40), whispers about the Bills and Rex Ryan (25:00), and Tampa Bay's sleeper status (33:00), and then the two rehash the Pats' AFC championship game loss. Then, Joe House joins (37:00) to offer up his three best bets for Week 2 and discuss the decent Cowboys (44:00), Matthew Stafford's engagement level without Megatron (50:00), a healthy Jadeveon Clowney (58:00), and Matt Ryan's trade value (1:02:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Use one bill for 2016. Again, do everything on your phone. Download the free SeatGeek app or go to SeatGeek.com. Today's episode is also brought to you by Stamps.com. Stop relying on the post office. Just buy and print official U.S. postage using your own computer and printer. Sign up for Stamps.com right now. Use the promo code BS for a four-week trial plus a $110 bonus offer that includes postage and a digital scale.

Go to Stamps.com. Click on the microphone at the top of the homepage, type in BS. Do you still go to the post office, Michael Lombardi? No, actually, I have stamps on my computer. I use stamps.com. That's good. It's really good. What an organic and great plug that was.

Hold on, I've got to finish this. Don't forget about my new HBO show, Any Given Wednesday. Watch the rears on HBO and the bonus digital clips on HBO Now HBO Go and HBO On Demand we had Amy Trask Chris Carter, Joseph Gordon-Levitt this week you can watch all the re-airs on all those HBO platforms coming next Wednesday at 10pm

a very famous athlete, I'm not going to spoil it stay tuned also check out TheRinger.com for columns, features, podcasts and everything else and now, the return of Mike Lombardi. It's been four years? I think it's three. Three and a half?

Three and a half, at least. Yeah, it's a long time. One of my most popular podcast guests ever, and now a member of the Fox and Fox Sports 1 family. Their insider, Michael Lombardi, is back. It's great to see you. It's great to be here. It's really great to see you.

Like, it's genuinely great to see you. I'm so happy. It's great for me, too, because I'm in Los Angeles. I'm in your hood. It's really kind of neat. It's just really impressive. I went by Hollywood High today. That was kind of, like, interesting.

The Knights. My daughter was practicing soccer there sometimes. I think I'm going to go to a high school Hollywood High today. That was kind of like interesting. The Knights. My daughter was practicing soccer there sometimes. I'm going to go to a high school Hollywood High game. I used to, when I worked at Jimmy Kimmel's show, he was right next to Hollywood High. And when we had to write jokes, this was like before wireless laptops

and stuff. So I'd get my notepad, I'd go sit on the fire escape. And Hollywood High would be practicing football and be writing these little jokes in the fire escape. So it has be practicing football and be writing like these little jokes in the fire escape. So it has a whole sweet spot to my heart. It's Dave. There's some great celebrities that have gone there. I was big John Ritter painting on the side of the building. I was going to Google that and figure out who went there. Like, it seems like it's been a setting for so much. Like, I was like, wow, that's Hollywood high. It's interesting. So since

the last time you were on my podcast and and we should mention, you're going to come on, you're going to do hits every Friday during the NFL season. This one you're doing in person because it's the special Return of Lombardi podcast. But most of the time you'll probably be on the phone because you're doing hits, all kinds of stuff. But so you were the Browns GM for a year. The Browns, I think, have had more turmoil over the last five, six years than any organization, any sport. You're a part of that.

Right. Go to the Patriots. You become a consultant for them. The Browns, you're still getting paid by the Browns, but then the Patriots, and all of a sudden, you get a Super Bowl ring out of it. Yeah. Thank you, Malcolm Butler. That was great. Thank you, Malcolm Butler.

I still look at that play, and Yeah. Thank you, Malcolm Butler. Yeah, it was great. Thank you, Malcolm Butler. I still look at that play and I think, oh, my gosh, you know, but it's been it's been great. I mean, I went back for three years. It was fun. But this is the right time for me to turn over and start start this career again. And it's good to be back. We should mention again that you work for the New England Patriots, my favorite team. Yeah, that's that was a great to get back with Bill again and you know it was fun having been with Bill from 91

to 96 and having a relationship with him since then and then actually working with him daily was was really great it was fun it was enjoyable and Bill hasn't changed and no matter how much success the man has that's the thing you have to really admire about him it's what I call the born to run theory he doesn't mind playing born to run every single day. Oh, that's a good theory. Your first, your first theory you've dropped already. It's the born to run theory. He, he just, he'll play it every, this doesn't, he'll do the same thing over and over.

It doesn't matter. He's not Sinatra. He doesn't want to play my way or strangers in the night. I mean, Bill will play born to run every day. And I think that's what makes him so great. And he's still a great coach? Yeah, he loves it. I don't think he thinks it's work.

It's just his way of what he loves to do, and he does it really well. And even though for most coaches, the longer they do it, you think it gets easier for them, there's no corner that he cuts, and there's nothing that he leaves out. And every single part of his day is spent working. So I'm a friend of his, but I'm also a fan of his because I watched him, and nobody works harder. I feel like such a jackass for just assuming the Cardinals

were going to kill the Patriots last week. I thought once they scratched Gronk, I honestly thought, well, they're not going to throw Garoppolo to the Wolves. Cardinals at home. Cardinals are a very good team. This has the potential to be really ugly. And, the pats come out they do the pats thing they i knew her i knew that cardinals pick was in trouble the morning of when i realized they were nine and a half point underdogs which hadn't happened since super bowl 36 right

belichick loves that oh really you're gonna count us out okay that was the theme the whole week i mean and look the the problem they had during the preseason was they never were able to bond their team this whole notion that you have to go away to camp is ridiculous because you're going away to camp with 90 players 50 of them aren't going to be on the team yeah so you're bonding with who but when you can get a trip like the year we went to the super bowl we spent a week in san diego after losing the green bay that that week won the super bowl for us we bonded the team we went to the Super Bowl, we spent a week in San Diego after losing to Green Bay. That week won the Super Bowl for us. We bonded the team. We got together. This trip to Arizona bonded the team. It got them together because this is a team sport. And even though Gronk didn't play and Brady wasn't there and they didn't have Deion Lewis, which is a huge miss too, you know,

they were able to find a way to win the game and it bonded the team and it gave the team a sense of toughness, which is what he wanted to start the season and had they won or lost i think that's what he was trying to accomplish and he did and look whenever he's an underdog like this and you count him out that's when he can motivate his team every single day that message is being drilled i don't know if there's going to be any more counting out for this pats team because that was the one of the first four with brady that you thought they're gonna lose that the biggest things i learned that just shocked me was I thought James White was really overmatched last year,

and especially in that Denver game. He just wasn't ready for it. I think we threw to him 16 times. He couldn't get there. And in that Arizona game, I thought he was excellent. I really thought he made strides. When we first drafted James White, he had LaDainian Tomlinson look to him in practice

in the first couple practices without pads. then when the pads came on he didn't run with any power or advance the ball you know one thing for running backs space runs are easy you know you're out there in space you run but you got to make yards after contact that's the key back and James wasn't able to do that early in his career why he was inactive so much and then lately he's been more pass receiver than runner and I thought there's been flashes of times the redskin game he made a couple plays but there's been times the miami game the last game of the year he catches the slant he doesn't score on it but he runs it down to the one yard line there have been flashes of it i thought on sunday against arizona there was and i think this i think they'll need him to do that they need dj foster

the rookie from arizona state to give him some explosive plays too. He's a lot like James White, receiver, runner. The key for the Patriots season is simply this. They've got to get teams to respect their running game enough to where they can't just play nickel the whole game. When we walked off the field in Denver, that was the goal of the offseason we cannot play a team that just basically says to us us or say to them look we're just going to line up and dime if you want to run the ball you'll get two yards yeah we're going to line up and dime no matter what you want to do we're not doing anything that became problematic and so now mcdaniels and the offensive staff has the ability if you stay base against them they're going to spread you out if you want to go nickel they'll

run it third and 12 the garrett blunt first down we're going to spread you out. If you want to go nickel, they'll run it. Third and 12, LeGarrette Blount, first down. We're going to run it on you if you want to play nickel. Here you go. And the other thing they did in that game was they shortened the game. It was the old Tom Coughlin, Giants, Pats, Super Bowl blueprint. And I knew in the first quarter, I knew what he was doing. He's like, I'm running the ball every time with Blount, first down. Every time.

Get the clock going. I'm cutting a minute off the clock. I'm going to make this a 47-minute game instead of a 60-minute minute game and i think the one disappointment to them as you look at it the red zone defense third and 10 down the red zone they have a chance to get off the field red zone i'll drop another one on it to me the most important play in football is third down red zones yeah four-point plays really the network should get them sponsored they should call them the four-point plays really they should tell your new buddies at fox they should spot four point the four-point plays. Really, they should. Tell your new buddies at Fox. They should spot it. The Fox four-point play.

It's the four-point play. And that is the most important play. And they were bad down there. Look, the Jets lose the opening game to Cincinnati, and all you have to do is look at the four-point plays. They're 0-3 in red zone third downs. And when you lose those four-point plays, it's tragic, and that's why you lose.

And I think that's where the theme will be this week. Look got to get better in the red zone typically belichick's defense are good in the red zone they haven't been pre-season and haven't been the first game they need to improve that because there's going to be times where you're going to get in a little bit of a game where those four points swing the game you know who wasn't good at four point plays another one of your theory guys kyle wharton the master of the 2020 went from one 20 yard line to the other he was the king of them 2020 vision coward do not you know and i don't think we give enough i don't think when we cover the game we give enough importance to the third down red zone plays yeah we lump them together in third downs oh this team's five or four and twelve four for

twelve no there should be a separate category third down red zone plays are critical and that's what determines the and that's how you determine where the jets had really gave up 13 points against cincinnati they're over three in the third down they missed the field goal and they missed an extra point they beat cincinnati it's there in the stat sheet but they missed the three point they missed the four point plays they lose the game who's the new 2020 kyle orton guy in the league is it tannahill well tannahill's tannahill on the road i i would say blake bordles is the king that's a good one i think he's the king and he's also the you know he's only had three first quarter touchdown passes in his career

oh wow i mean he's the king of you guys go ahead and do what you want i mean he's the guy who leads the league of rebounds but he gets 12 rebounds off of missed free throws. That's what Blake, and everybody wants to anoint Blake Bortles as he's going to be this great guy. Until you play well early when everybody's playing good, tell me you're a good player. And three

touchdown passes in the first quarter in your career? What would happen if Blake Bortles played for Chuck Pagano? Would they just be behind by 20 in the first seven minutes of every game the greatest fantasy player ever because he would he would rally in the fourth quarter you know one one road win in his entire career kevin clark from the ringer who writes a really good pics column now on fridays he found this article that in some indie paper and i had always been wondering this, like how do the Colts,

gee, I wonder how many times they've fallen behind by 10 points. And in the 65 games in the Pagano era, they've been behind double digits in the first half 27 times. That's amazing. This is a team that has Andrew Luck on it. Right, and the clone of that team,

and I did it this week, I write a notes column to myself and you look no further than the indianapolis defensive drafts and the team they're just horrendous and then look at the new orleans saints defensive drafts they're the same team they just have different uniforms they can't play defense they have offenses that can score but they just don't have any defensive talent and And the question you have to ask yourself is, what makes anyone think the Colts were going to be better on defense this year? I couldn't understand why.

They hired Ted Montalcino. Okay, great. That's fine. I appreciate it. He's a really good coach. But he can't make them better on defense. They didn't improve the talent of their defense. I didn't understand why people had them in the Texans neck and neck.

It's not close south well because everybody has so many more good players everybody wants to romanticize about andrew luck and i love andrew luck and he's a talented player he's 16 and 15 on the road count playoffs right so let's be honest here if you're a great quarterback you go on the road and win you win games on the road and well he's never had his fault he's never had an offensive line he's never really had a decent running back as a dome and we've said this before when you're when you run a team in a dome you can only evaluate your team correctly outside the dome because the dome allures you into thinking you're better than you are yeah the crowd noise helps you play better run defense not the colts

case last week not the saints case last week but typically that's why so when you play bad at home on defense and you're a dome team you got problems and you better fix them but the colts didn't fix them they extended pagano's contract they extended grigson's contract yeah and they added no new player to their team patrick robinson frank gore's back he's celebrating his 48th birthday and you know what i think if frank gore were on the patriots he would probably be a good player i would love that he would be a good player i would totally change my opinion on him. You would totally change your opinion.

But Frank Gore's going to run behind the line. They're behind in games all the time. It's hard to run the ball when you're behind. Right. And so, but I don't know why people, like the Redskins. Okay, let's just jump to them. What makes people think the Redskins are going to be better on defense? Like, why would anybody think they were better on defense?

Nine and seven last year. They snuck into the playoffs. They played a bad Eastern team. They even lost to Dallas without Romo. I mean, what made – they signed Josh Norman. Okay, great. Josh Norman's a cover two corner. That's why Carolina didn't pay him.

He's a cover two corner. You want to pay $14 million to a guy who's going to play the flat? Everybody wants him to match up on – everybody wants him to match up on on you know everybody wants them to match up in the pittsburgh game but he can't he's not he's not impressed man to man corner all the time that's not what he does he plays cover two he plays quarters watch carolina that's what they do dave gettleman was smart he said look i'm not going to pay 12 13 14 million for a guy who's not going to just be a lock man-to-man corner. I could find guys to fit the system, and that's what he did.

Did you see anything from the Cardinals? I mean, the Pats, it's always tough against the Pats. You never know. You never want to overreact to the other team if the Pats are on their game. I thought the Cardinals looked really sloppy. And I don't know whether it was just they were arrogant coming into the game because Garoppolo, no Gronk, all that stuff, they just thought pencil it in, it's a win. Or if there was some real residue damage from that playoff last year,

I thought Palmer looked shaky. I thought he made bad throws. He had time to throw that whole game. Yeah, I think the preseason is tough because you don't get a chance to really – look at the first half of a lot of these games. There was a lot of rust in them. Typically, losing timeouts. The games there was a lot of rust in them you know typically you know losing timeouts the Carolina game was a bad start so I I watched that and you know losing Evan

Matthews hurt them a little bit because Earl Watford wasn't a very good player when he came in and I think they had to they had to try to find a way to get the ball the the Cardinals must do this they must find a way to execute their offense and run the ball without having to always rely on the deep throw they have to be more consistent in their in their game but look they they hung in there and they they were finding their way around yeah and they were converted in the red zone they did some things i i just took them a while to realize that the patriots could not cover fits they threw them 10 times and caught eight and it really was wondering why the patriots weren't going to double fits at what point were they not going to double fits?

Because, you know, they went into the game saying, we don't need to double fits. And by the first quarter, you said, you know, we better double fits. They should have double fits. But, look, defensively for the Cardinals, the question is going to be, can they rush the passer? Can they play from in front, which is what they do well. That's what they do well.

They play a nickel defense. They want to play from in front. They couldn't do it in that game. So they they had a box a different style and that's not really what they do and i think that's when you tend to look at a team and say geez they don't look they didn't look sharp they didn't look crisp well they made them play a different style they couldn't play from in front yeah and that's really what the cardinals want to do if you had to pick a team between arizona and seattle for my God, I can't believe they only went 7-9. Which one would you pick?

Well, based on Seattle's offensive line, I'd say Seattle. I think Seattle's really good, too. Seattle's really good on defense, but they're not going to get away with Sowell's left tackle. They're not going to get away with Gillum at right tackle. And the rookie first, the rookie second rounder, Efidi, they're going to have a hard time him playing guard. So that line, and now Russell Wilson's hurt.

He had a bad ankle. They were lucky to win that game. They made plays. They're a true warrior team. They made plays when it counted. The fourth down conversion was great in that last draft. The fourth down conversion was huge, but they're not going to be able to get away with that all the time because it's going to come back to them.

And can they do that? Whereas I think Arizona, once they settle down that cornerback position once they're able to get some stability in their secondary and they can play from in front i think they're pretty good was was that one of those games where maybe miami's better than we thought it's in play i mean their defense was good in that game the d line was really it might have been the seattle's offensive line but it also might have been miami's defense is good and they have a better coach. Their coach last year was terrible.

I think Miami's a challenging team, especially because their front's so good. Their depth is not great in the front. I think what you'll see in New England is a lot of hurry up, no huddle, to try to tire their defensive line out. Kind of the opposite of what they did last week. Right, exactly. I don't think we did no huddle once.

They were playing at home so they can control the pace. But Miami's got to prove that Tunsell's not a guard. Okay, Tunsell's not a guard. That really affected him in the game. He played left guard. He plays guard like a tackle, which means he turns his shoulders too much. And Seattle was running a ton of games over on that side, and it created a bunch of problems for him.

But Tannehill's got to prove he can hold on to the ball and he can make key catches. And if they get the ball to Landry, he breaks a ton of tackles. I think Miami's going to be a tough play. They're not going to be a 4-12. Miami's going to be a tough out. They'll be a tough out in New England this week. Yeah, they're getting almost a touchdown in New England, and it seems high, especially if Gronk's not going to play.

It feels like a four-point game to me. I would think it's high because they're always typically good games, and the offense is better than it was last year. Last year was a hash mark offense. So if the ball was on the right hash mark, then the passing game was coming to that hash mark. No matter what the formation was, everybody kind of knew the way the offense was. If the ball was on the middle of the field, then it became different.

But it was a hash mark passing game, and you could figure out where the ball was going to go. Forget the formation. And this year, they're much better designed and schematically for the passing game, and Tannehill's just going to have to execute, and they're going to have to protect better. They didn't protect very well.

Like I said, Tunzel really was struggling in there. I'm not a Tannehill fan. I just don't believe at all. I think it's too easy to confuse him. He's a little Bortlesh. Bortlesh is, you know, when the game's game's going slow portals doesn't play well in the first quarter he plays well in the fourth quarter when the game's over tannahill's the opposite he plays really well in the first quarter but when the game speeds up and he's got to play faster that's when

he starts to make mistakes remember they were saying dan campbell wouldn't let him audible last year yeah it was like that was it if you didn't like the defense that's it run the play anyway well they their offense was so like i said it was a hash mark passing game so it was very it was hard for him to get out of anything yeah so like it's one thing to say audible but brady can audible into anything he wants yeah whereas tannahill what's he gonna audible to when you're in a hash mark offense you're gonna audible from a run to a pass it's that's everybody knows when that's coming have you had a great meal in los angeles yet uh no but i went to al davis's favorite restaurant called mateo so i had to go back in there and feel the feel the al davisness feel the al davisness i had to do that it was there too well if you ever want

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Yeah, now you don't have to. You don't have to do that. You can stream DirecTV. On your iPad. You can get it on your phone. You can get it on your phone. You can get it on your iPad. You can get it on your laptop. Oh, wow.

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If you're a diehard NFL fan who can't get DirecTV where you live, you can still watch football games on Sunday without a satellite. You can stream games using your favorite device. I don't think you get a deal if you work for the Niners. They probably make you pay full price for that. But right now, our listeners get 10% off when using the promo code RINGER.

So go to NFLSundayTicket.tv. Use promo code R-I-N-G-E-R today. I just got to say, it was so nice to have Sunday Ticket back. There was like nine early games last week. It was hard. Just hopping around, hopping around. I settled on the – I watched a lot of the Bucs. I had Raiders Saints was a good one.

I learned some stuff from that. I was just jumping around. It was just nice. There's another team, the Falcons, who play bad defense in the Dome. I mean, there's another one that can't play defense. The Falcons stink. Yeah, they're not very good. I was going to fire some questions at you really quick before we have to call house.

Coach in the most trouble, Rex Ryan, Jeff Fisher, Mike McCoy. Fisher just got a contract extension. Are we sure he got a contract extension? That's the word. That was the word. I would suspect that. I would say rex ryan i think anytime you have a coach that went off the way rex did and with that verbal uh passionate speech that he had i think he knows he's feeling the pressure and and look there was a lot of whispers around the league last year at

the end of the season that rex was going to get fired after one it was going to be right done there were whispers i'm not saying i have it confirmed but there were whispers so when you look at it this year this team's not very good. 0-2. 0-2. Their defense looked awful last night against the Jets. No pass rush. Rex took over the team that had 54 sacks.

Last year they had 21. They had four in the opening game. I don't think they're going to pressure the quarterback. And if you can't play his scheme, if you can't pressure the quarterback, your corners just aren't good enough. Look, you cannot rush. You can't cover in the nfl i don't care if you have four pro bowl corners if you don't have a rush you know you have to be able to pressure the passer and if you can't pressure the passer which buffalo can't do you're going to give up a lot of yards passing

watkins is one of those tantalizing guys who always goes for 15 bucks too much in in fantasy and yet i'm not positive. Like, Fitz was always the guy he was compared to. Where do you see him going? What's his ceiling? When you break a bone in your foot, it's always more of a mental game than it is a physical game. Put the screw in there. It doesn't feel well.

You can tell he doesn't feel right. Yeah, that was my takeaway, too. He doesn't feel right. You're just going to have to give him some time look they don't they don't run an offense they run plays so because of the quarterback's inability to really stand back there and execute the scheme they have a good scheme the quarterback just needs loose plays to run i don't think we've seen the best of sammy watkins until he gets around a quarterback that can actually run plays and let

him fit within the system. It's a little too many loose plays in Buffalo, which is what Taylor needs to be successful. They're going to be particularly terrible. They don't look like they have the ability to turn it around. They don't look like they have the ability to turn it around. Which young QB do you like the most? Mariota, Prescott, Wentz, Goff, or handsome Jimmy, Jimmy Garoppolo? I really like Mariota. I think Mariota is really a good player and there's a lot to build around him. I think he's got a lot of talent. He can move. He can run with the football. He's got a quick mind he can make he can make some quick decisions i've been fortunate enough i watched jimmy grappolo practice for two years and took a lot of reps i thought jimmy grappolo is a really good player he has he does things really well around and in the

right scheme in the right system he can be really effective he throws the ball vertically down the field better than tom does and he can make throws all over the field. He can make a movement around. He's got a little movement. And the players like him. The players like him. I was going to say, he's got charisma. You could see the team rallied around him.

Yeah. But that wasn't surprising because when Jimmy has lunch every single day, he's eating there with all the offensive linemen. He's a true, true quarterback in terms of his leadership skills are there. He's not aloof and he's not around the team. He's involved and he's really taken to watching and observing, understanding the program and working on his skill set, even though he knew he was back up to Tom.

Is there, like he starts four games, Brady comes back. You think like Sam Bradford fetched a first round pick yeah the value you have jacoby brissett who they just drafted i mean garoppolo it's not inconceivable he could get traded week five or week six i wouldn't do it but what if some team came to them and were like hey look here's two first round picks a king's ransom for jared goff we can't we don't even see him he's in the witness protection program i mean we don't even know where he is. Well, he was third string. I thought his third string dress outfit looked good. The interesting question for me is,

is Wentz played at a small school and they got him ready to play opening day. Right. Goff played at Cal in the Pac-12. You mean he couldn't get him ready to play? I mean, really, what am I missing here? Wentz, I'm not going to take too much away from killing the browns but whence it does seem like the teammates like them they rallied

around him he made some plays it looks like you can build around he went second golf went first like if if wentz is good and golf is bad that's a double disaster right you you picked the wrong one you picked the wrong one and then if you're the browns manning it's ryan leaf peyton man totally and if you're the browns you could just had wentz and you mis-evaluated that you've been looking for a quarterback since well they liked cody kessler that was what i remember that's what they liked they like they thought cody kessler they liked rg3 too i i think they really genuinely felt and by the way i'm not against the rg3 gamble i personally wouldn't have done it, but I see it. Like he did produce.

You learn from Seattle, though. When Seattle drafted Russell Wilson, they had so many quarterbacks on the team that I thought to myself wrongly, and I learned this from watching Seattle, is that how are they going to get them all reps? Because football is a mathematical game. It's all about the reps. And yet Seattle just kept banging away at trying to find a quarterback just keep banging away get and bring more quarterbacks if something's going to emerge

they found russell wilson yeah that you can be enamored with rg3 there's nothing wrong with that try to resurrect his career great good idea but you still that can't stop you from getting another quarterback because you just don't know you put all your chips in one basket it's not going to work out for you rg3 if he doesn't hurt his knee no still now no okay he can't he can't you know he can't run there's no rhythm to his game and his accuracy is look brett farf said one time and this is a this is completely true there's three there's three kind of quarterbacks a quarterback that can throw the ball through the door a quarterback that can hit the doorknob and the great ones can throw the ball through the keyhole okay rg's struggling to get through the door right okay those guys those guys come the accuracy guys yeah they never totally make it

i also wonder like running quarterbacks now um he doesn't protect himself yeah that the guys weirdly romo is like this too romo's taking some hits where he just can't figure out how to protect himself in that split second yeah i i just think to me rg3 is that when you're sitting there and three years later you're still trying to find a system for the guy there is no system okay there is no system best chance to be 2016 sleeper tampa detroit or baltimore well baltimore is not a sleeper baltimore has so many injuries last year i think baltimore is a sleeper nobody picked them for the playoffs they're all around her with seven wins what what i think baltimore has finally done is they've taken a baseball approach to their team that if

you're if you're the gm of the red sox you want power on the right side you want to hit the wall you have joe flacco you've got to get vertical outside receivers yes to build around your team they found my receivers last year they you can't have possession receivers with flacco you got to get the ball down the field make some throws up the field and and try to win the game with your offense don't manage the game with your defense and I think that's the approach they have to take now. They won the opening game kind of playing the op, but they made plays in the passing game. I think Baltimore's a good team.

I think Tampa's a sleeper because Tampa's, Winston's a really good player. They played really good defense. They gave up, Atlanta averaged less than three yards of carry at home against the Bucs defense. That's fairly impressive. Yeah. So, and I think Winston has the charisma to kind of cat rally around the team.

The team buys into him. He was one of my big preseason kind of, I guess, picks, for lack of a better word. I just thought Jameis was going to take a leap. He has. Because there's something about him. And he's got players that can make plays down the field. True. I mean, that catch Evans makes against the Falcons down the field is incredible. Vincent Jackson really didn't, I mean, Vincent Jackson can make plays down the field. I mean, that catch Evans makes against the Falcons down the field is incredible.

Vincent Jackson really didn't – I mean, Vincent Jackson can make plays. They have the ability to be really good. And they won that game without Doug Martin running the ball effectively. So that tells me, though, there'll be a tough out for Arizona this week. I think Arizona will beat them, but there'll be a tough out. Could we have three playoff teams from the AFC West? Denver, Kansas City, and the Raiders. I think it's conceivable, yeah.

I think it's conceivable, too. Kansas City is a little bit shaky, and I like Kansas City as a team, but defensively, they can't rush the passer. They play too much of the same stuff, so they're like a big... No Houston, you could feel it last week. Yeah, I mean...

The Keenan Allen thing was such a weird monkey wrench to that game. The Chargers look great, and then it's like, oh, yeah, our best receiver's out for the year. Yeah, what happens is you get a lead, you try to hold the lead. You've got to keep trying to score. Right. You know, like you've got to say to yourself, hey, we've got to get this to 31, 38 wins the game,

and you've got to keep trying to play. You can't stop playing. I just think that Kansas City, if they can't rush, their scheme's a little bit too generic. I mean, when you get them, they're tough to play, but if you get them to have to play outside themselves, I think you can do some damage to them, especially if they don't have a rush.

And look, even if Houston comes back, who says he's going to be able to rush the passer effectively? Could you see the Giants in the Super Bowl? No. No? How come? I'm just not sold that they're good enough on defense yet. Okay. I mean, way better than it's been.

I mean, historically for the last two years, it's been bad. But they're going to have to be better than they were. But I just think, to me, Seattle's a better team. Yeah. I think Carolina's a really good team, too. Me, too. So I think the challenge is going to be

a little more difficult. Green Bay is... Not ready to... They played really good defense against Jacksonville. Now I know people say, well, it's Jacksonville. Well, Jacksonville's put

a lot of money in that team. I mean, Jacksonville's spent... And it was like 100 degrees. Right. And the game was... It was exactly how Jacksonville won the game. It came into the fourth quarter,

let the heat and humidity take over. Green Bay will. They never wilted. No. And so. With that said, they ran one of the worst fourth and one plays of the decade. Yeah.

With the game on the line. The wide receiver, whatever that play is called. It's called the wide receiver get tackled three yards behind the line. The scrimmage play. It was pretty awful. You mean the Tavon Austin runs plays? Because that's all he does. They gave him $30 million extension.

How can you give him $30 million? The guy catches every pass behind the line. He said nine touchdowns catching and seven receiving. You never walk to the stadium and you're driving to the stadium with your wife saying,

oh my God, we're playing Tavon Austin. How are we going to stop him? It's like Percy Harvin was like that too. Yeah, but Percy Harvin was an accessory. You have to shove him into the office. It's an accessory. It's like something you put your phone case into.

Is Dallas versus Washington week two a playoff game? No. If somebody goes 0-2, how is that team making the playoffs? I mean, isn't this like a loser leaves town match in wrestling? I don't think either of them are good enough to make the playoffs. I know, but if they're going 0-2, they're not making the playoffs. Either of them are. So in a weird way, it's kind of a playoff game.

Washington didn't do anything to make their team better this year. Nobody can tell me they did. I feel like such a sap. That was my one bad pick in week one. I thought they were going to beat Pittsburgh. See, I think Pittsburgh's really good. I know, you were saying that to me last week.

Pittsburgh's really good. God, their receivers. How do they keep finding receivers? They do a great job of coaching receivers. They find receivers find receivers and the quarterbacks you can see the quarterbacks into it now defensively i don't know how good they're going to be but if they get the lead like they do they're tough to play so that's your second favorite afc team yeah i think i think it's going to come down to pittsburgh and new england i think those are two really hard teams denver's got to prove that they can effectively have an offense

because they won the Super Bowl last year with no offense. I mean, let's be real honest. They won it with no offense. Can they play to that level of defense? Based on the first game, that defense wasn't the same defense as it was at the end of the season. But there were moments during the season that Denver's defense wasn't. I mean, they won three games in overtime.

That defense wasn't as dominant during the season as it ended up being in the playoffs. Maybe they're going to turn it on later. I don't know. But I think at one point they will struggle against certain teams that have great receivers, and Pittsburgh will be one of those teams. If the Pats in Denver played that AFC title game last January 20 times. Where?

In Denver? In Denver. How many times did the Pats win? I think 19 and a half. But I'm completely biased. It's at least 12. We never changed the snap count. We couldn't change the snap count.

It became problematic because the center was struggling to get the snap count. So Von Miller knew that the snap was on one. I mean, that's the whole advantage to football is the snap count. And so that became a problem. And I didn't think that was going to be a problem. I think everybody on the New England sideline was confident going into that game. Jamie Collins loses his own Daniels on that one touchdown.

They came out with a formation that was different. And then he got beat on the double move. I think everybody was confident going into that game. And look, Steve Gaskowski misses the only extra point of the season or else they would be in overtime. But a bit of his life. Quickly, let's talk about the perfect mattress that's sold directly to consumers.

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You try it for 100 days. If you're not happy, they'll pick it back up. Find out why it's the most awarded mattress of the decade. Get $50 toward any mattress purchase by going to casper.com slash BS and use code BS. Terms and conditions do apply. All right, we're going to call. Oh, we need headphones. Yeah. Headphones for Lombardi. we're going to call. Oh, we need headphones. Yeah.

Headphones for Lombardi. We're going to call House. Every week, House and I pick three games. You take those. I'll give you these. All right. We pick three games. Well, we'll get House on the line.

We can explain. One thing, though. Do we like the titans this week they're getting six points in detroit why is detroit favored by six points over the titans the titans when you look at the game they turned the ball over which killed them right and they're playing a top four defense they were in the game they were winning the game the game the score is a little more deceiving they didn't score you know they gave up all their points in the they scored in the first half minnesota didn't shut them out in the second half.

They got a dumb defensive touchdown. I think Tennessee's a team that can create some problems. They've got to be able to run the ball. We don't think Detroit's good. I think Detroit's going to struggle to play run defense all year. I think it's a tough matchup. Doesn't that feel like a three-point game?

I feel like we're getting three free points. The Titans could win it. Can Detroit handle success? That's going to be free points. I would suspect that. And the Titans could win it. And can Detroit handle success? That's going to be key. All right. Put your cans on. Hey, buddy. Joe House on the line, and Mike Lombardi is here in studio,

one of your all-time favorites. Hello, Joe. One of my all-time favorites, back from the past, a blast from the past. Welcome back, Mike Lombardi. Thank you, Joe. Reunited at last. I'm telling you. It's a BS Podcast Hall of Famer who literally climbed out of the Hall of Fame shrine,

and now he's here every Friday. Speaking of every Friday, House and I pick games. We call it the Callaway Par 3. We make three NFL picks for the upcoming Sunday slash Monday and it's presented by Callaway home of the world's greatest irons. We're keeping score all season like it's golf. 18 holes so it's 17

week season, 18 holes. We're going to make three NBA Christmas games. It'll be the 18th hole. House went one and two last week. He's one over. I went two and one last week. I'm one under. I a two stroke lead on you House who do you have first? yeah so I'm ready to

overreact great, why is that a surprise? I'm standing the good counsel and judgment of every professional in the NFL space that you're not supposed to overreact after week one. No.

I'm going to overreact with my first selection. The D.C. Grudens were so disappointing that I'm going to call them the dead skins this week. The expectations that the Washington area, and this is an annual tradition, by the way, every offseason we work ourselves into a ladder of over-exuberance and irrational exuberance for the D.C. Gruden's, and week one comes around and, oh, yeah, that's right.

It's that team. They're that team. So this week I am taking the Dallas Cowboys minus three. The main thing that was concerning to me about the Deadskins' performance was not on the offensive side of the ball, which may surprise you with all the dirt balls that Kirk Cousins threw. I am concerned about the Deadskins' defense, and especially against the run.

They were among the very worst teams against the run last season they did nothing to change my the the view that they will find that comfortable position at the bottom again this season and i think dallas showed a little bit of competence at the running game the two-headedheaded horsemen there with Alfred Morris, former dead skin, and Zeke Elliott. I'm calling him Zeke already. I think they're going to run all over the dead skins, and Dallas getting the three to me feels right.

That's my pick. House, I have good news and bad news for you. The good news is that Lombardi completely agrees with you on the defense, and the bad news is you're in trouble this weekend. I don't understand how you can give a guy a nickname who's only averaged, I think, what, three yards a carry last week, Ezekiel Elliott?

When you watch that game, if you're watching the game, if you're Jason Garrett, to me, the back that was the best back for that game was Alfred Morris. At some point, you've got to play him, and I agree. Alfred Morris has got to run the ball effectively. The Redskins' defense hasn't improved one bit, to me, from last year. And the Josh Norman thing, which is where they put all their money on, and it doesn't look like they got what they thought they bought.

Right, unless they can get the quarterback to throw the ball in three steps. Well, the national media very much enjoyed the Josh Norman, Antonio Brown confusion. The fact that Josh Norman was not lined up against Antonio. But why would you line Josh Brown up on Antonio Brown? I mean, to me, Josh Norman's not your man-to-man. I mean, I thought John was going to call down to the bench at the game and tell his brother to double. But why wouldn't you just double? Antonio Brown, if you're playing him, when I was in New England,

we made the mistake. We put Malcolm Butler on him, and Malcolm played his heart out. The guy had 143 yards. He was amazing in that game. It was the best defense ever. The guy had 143 yards in the game. It was the best defense ever. You're going to have to double Antonio Brown. The minute he gets off the bus, you have two guys

double him. You cannot single. I don't care who you are. And then you put your best corner on their other receiver, whether it's DeSean Jackson or whomever they're going to play in the game. House is there. They confessed that they made a mistake.

There was supposed to be safety help on both of those touchdowns. It just didn't happen because D'Angelo Hall. I think I could be within 10 yards of him on the 40 right now. Well, the touchdown pass, there was nine guys open. I mean, did you see the crosser? They came back and ran the same short yardage play again. They threw it to the crosser because he was so wide open the first time. Well, the good news is it's still the preseason.

You can, oh no, wait, it's week two. That's, I've done a 180. The one thing I've learned over the years is try to ride who you think is going to do well in week one, stick to your guns, but don't stick to your guns for five weeks. I thought the Redskins were going to be good. I believed in Cousins.

I thought they're going to score points. I agree with House. The defense is either the same or worse. Last year, they were the good-bad team. So if they're playing like the Browns, I'm going to like the Redskins. I'm going to like the Skins. But the Cowboys might actually be good. They might be decent at least.

They can't rush the passer. So I think Cousins should have a good game. I mean, Cousins should play well against them. Captain Checkdown. Is he the new Captain Checkdown? He's got a little Kyle Wharton in him. Yeah. All right.

Well, here's my first pick house. As we discussed right before you came on the phone, I think the Titans are half decent. I don't think they're good. I don't think they're going to make the playoffs. I don't think they're bad. I think Mari think they're going to make the playoffs. I don't think they're bad. I think Mariota's okay. They can run the ball a little.

I was impressed by how they kind of hung with Minnesota and then a couple dumb mistakes did them in, but their defense was a little better than I thought. Granted, it was against Sean Hill. For some reason, they're getting six points in Detroit. I watched that Detroit Colts game. I just think the Colts are

like a bottom six, bottom seven team. Detroit barely beat them. And I'm just not buying it. I don't like the Lions as a six point favorite really against anybody. I feel like I'm getting three free points. I think the Titans could absolutely win the game. At the worst case scenario, they get the cheap touchdown at the end for the cover. They'd be down 11. They get the touchdown with a minute left. I like getting all those points, so the Titans is my first pick, House. Yeah, I like it. I'm not touching that game, but it does feel a little early to be giving Detroit six points against anybody for them to be laying six points against anybody.

I think the only reason they're doing that, House, is I think Matthew Stafford has played extremely well in the last 12 weeks. Yeah. And he's, they're running their offense. It's the Cooter effect! Yeah, they have two backs that are interchangeable, Abdullah and Riddick. They can both be on the field, even though

they're not playing at the same time, but they can do the same, they can run the same offense when they're on the field. So I think that offense has really stepped up. The question's going to be the defense. They're playing in the dome. I think Tennessee's got to run the ball to win the game. You know, one thing I like— Mike, let me ask you a quick question.

Yeah. Is it helpful to Matthew Stafford that he is no longer tempted to throw the ball all the way down the field? I think they can run their offense. They're not—you know, oftentimes you try to, okay, we've got to get Calvin Johnson the ball, so how are we going to do it? And so instead of running your your offense you're running plays and you got to be able to run an offense and the offense has got to be effective and that means at times some of your star players have to be a little unselfish now i can't go to the extreme that i did in dallas

where des brian has one catch for eight yards you're gonna have to get him the ball that's your best player you got to find a way to get him the ball but yes there is a degree where you're trying to force the ball to a guy and it affects the other offense and i think not having calvin there it makes the team know they have to rally around to make up for his loss one of the things i noticed with detroit last week was stafford was way more engaged and kind of leader-y than i remember him in the past especially in the last drive there were a couple times a guy screwed up one time a guy didn't get out of bounds in time, and he was really bitching the guy out. Not in a negative way, but in a leader way,

like the way Brady would have done it. How many years has he been in the league? Eight, nine years? He felt a little more leader-y to me in the game, but I still think they easily could have lost, and I don't think the Colts are good, so I don't get the line. House, what's your second pick? My second pick is the Carolina Panthers.

Shout-out to the Tater Frazier against San Francisco. I love San Francisco on a short week, coming across the country, playing on that 10 a.m. body clock trope. I love that. Carolina with 10 days rest to get ready for this one. Cam, 4-1 against the spread in home openers. And I like the nice nugget from Kevin Clark. I like Kevin's article that went up today.

Last year, six games with a line above 13 in not one instance did the underdog cover. I like Carolina laying with 13 and a half. Is it 13 or is it 13 and a half? I had it at 13. Well, whichever one. I like them both. I have it at 13, so I'm giving it to you at 13. Thank you.

How many teams in the league, if they're down 10, the game's over? Sal and I talked about this on Wednesday. I think the Niners are on that list. If they're down 13 to 3, it's over. They're not winning. They know they're not winning. And if Carolina goes up 17-0, 17-3, that's it. It's going to be like a 31-3. Eagles played there last year, scored 16 against Carolina. So Carolina is familiar with the offense that the 49ers are going to run. It's a challenge. I think what Hal said about the early week, the Monday game, you can't be in a more difficult spot as a team.

You're going to have to leave Friday, shorter week of practice, getting ready for a lot of things, running the single wing with Cam Newton. You can't simulate it in practice. There's nobody on your field. Maybe Colin Kaepernick can, but it's difficult to simulate the speed of which he executes that offense and along with the ability to throw it you can't really get a good look it's a challenge for the 49ers to hang in there they played really good defense against the rams team but that's in case you do yeah

wow that was bad the uh the other good thing with the panthers 10 days rest if cam did get banged up or who knows how hurt he was in that game uh he at least had his body a little time to recover i loved what benjamin brought to the table for them i forgot how much to make a play they need punches to make a play they need more than just benjamin olsen and fun olsen and benjamin they have a complete jonathan stortz hurt which isn't surprising whether he plays or not that'll be a question mark but this is a good team this is a really good team their young corners are going to grow up that's and this week with the 49ers, Jeremy Gurley was their best receiver last week.

Torrey Smith really doesn't know where he fits into the offense. So I think this is the perfect team for Carolina to get some confidence in. And here's another factor. They lost last week. So it's not like, oh, we're feeling so great about it. Oh, let's overlook this San Francisco team. Like, no. It's an NFC team, and they have to win their own one right now house little gamesmanship on my part carolina is also my second pick i am also taking carolina minus 13 so you cannot catch up on a stroke with me on that one we are crossing each other off. Carolina and Carolina. I just think it's the right pick because

if they get the lead, that's it. They don't have to sweat it out. 17-0. Cross it off. Blank average is not bringing them back. I think they averaged over under five yards per pass attempt last week against the Rams. If you can't throw the ball down the field,

it's hard to win in the league and you're not going to run the ball on Carolina. That front's really good. It didn't have the best game against the Denver Broncos on the road. I think at home they're more difficult. Charles Johnson, Quan Short's a good player. He hasn't gotten paid, but that's the best way to have Short when he needs to keep playing well. Yeah.

And I think Vernon Butler, this rookie that they drafted in the first round, is really a talented player. They're going to play him more. The front's got to win the game. They're a tough defense to play. And also, how many interceptions did they drop in that Denver game? Three? Yeah.

Four? I mean, Denver's fortunate. There's no doubt Denver was fortunate in the game. But Denver found a way to win the game. And look, we wouldn't be having this conversation. We'd be talking about how great Carolina is if the field goal goes through. True. Hass, what's your third pick?

Well, I'm just excited. Sal and I might get our first win this week in a super contest with Carolina. Hopefully I didn't just jinx it. Oh, you went 0-5 last week? Oh, that's the mush bowl. Oh, my God. You mushed it last week, Haas. The goose egg?

Haas, you mushed it. Wow. Everybody ripped up their tickets as soon as you bet it. Mushed it. I was 4-0, and then the Deadskins decided that they didn't want me to go 5-0. Hass, what's your third pick? My third pick this week, the Kansas City Chiefs getting, I repeat, getting two and a half points at Houston. This feels too simple, which fits my wheelhouse because I am indeed too simple.

But it also feels like the better team is getting points. We watched these two teams play in Houston just a little while ago, back in January, where the stakes were much higher, and the Chiefs beat the Daylights out of Houston. It was a crushing. What magic pill did Houston take that suggests that they've earned the status of favorites. Also, Andy Reid, historically very good on the road, over 60% against the spread, and road openers, he is a 67% winner against the spread.

I like that quite a bit. Houston also does not for whatever reason play the AFC West very well. 3-8 lately, straight up and against the spread. I'm predicting 3-9. I like the Chiefs. I like this Texans team to win that division and I almost had them

as one of my picks for this. Something scares me about this game. I don't like that they got their ass kicked by Kansas City nine months ago. Lombardi, what do you think when a team has their ass kicked? First of all, let's go back. All right. So that last year, Houston team had no skill players. This year's Houston team, much better skill. Lamar Miller. Remember this, the back makes the spread more effective. When you have to defend the box with the back and you have to defend Lamar Miller in the box, it makes the spread. Vincent Fuller showed America that he's got talent and he can run. And then add the fact that the tape of the New England Patriots playing

the Kansas City Chiefs, where the Patriots moved the ball and scored a lot of points against this chief, it allows Billy O'Brien to go look and say, okay, here's how you set it up. Here's what we can do, and we've got better skill to do it with. So he's going to use that tape as a reference point. And I think he's going to attack a Chiefs defense that can't really rush the passer. Now, I'm saying all this. I'm not a Brock Osweiler fan. I think that's the one guy that you have to worry about in this game.

But I do think Houston's a much better team. I mean, I can look at Houston unlike the Deadskins and say, here's what they've done to improve their offense. Braxton Miller could be a really good inside slot receiver. They've got the running back. They've got the outside receivers. I think they're a much better team. Now, defensively, if Clowney plays to the level that he's capable of playing,

with Whitney Marcellus playing along with Watt, this is a difficult team to block. You've got three guys in your front seven that are hard to block. Somebody's getting single blocked, and it becomes problematic for Alex Smith. And Alex Smith, until he throws the ball down the field, it's going to be difficult for them to score and make those throws. But Alex Smith has surprised me above and beyond what he did to us in the playoff game last year, converting all those third downs and some of the fourth downs, some of the

throws he made. But I think Houston's a really good football team. I thought they got a lot better, too. Is it Vincent Fuller or Corey Fuller? Vincent Fuller. Vincent Fuller? I always thought it was Corey Fuller. There is a Corey Fuller.

Was he? And a Will Fuller. A Will Fuller. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. It's Will Fuller. We're both wrong. We're both wrong.

I had Corey, you had Vincent. It's Will Fuller. Because I picked him up in one of my fantasy leagues. They threw to him all the time in that game. I think they threw to him like 11 times. And he gives them what they needed on the outside. He gives them an explosive outside receiver. And then they have Braxton Miller to play inside the slot.

And they have the running back. So if you want to play a lot of nickel against them now, is their offensive line. They didn't have Dwayne Brown last week. Will they have him this week? I don't think so. But their offensive line is really good. They've got some things going for them and their defense is good i mean look you can get third down

is where the chiefs survive yeah that's how the chiefs stayed on the field against the patriots last year they were significantly the best defensive third down team to houston texans significantly the next team i think they were 28 the next team was the chiefs at 33 that's significant difference when you're talking about so they're really good on third down and the chiefs are always in third down because it's three yards three yards third down and that's where they gain the advantage plus they're playing at home i like houston house was like one of those golfers that hit this great drive but he didn't see where it landed and he felt really good about it and now he's walking towards like wait a second is that driving the sand trap?

Is there a sand trap there? I didn't realize. Oh, it's a better Texans team. You have regrets, House? I asked the question, what made Houston better? The question's been answered. I'm sticking with the Chiefs. Rough times for House.

All right. With apologies to the Texans minus two and a half, which I liked. With apologies to the Texans minus two and a half, which I liked. With apologies to the Giants minus four and a half against New Orleans, which I liked. But the late touchdown scares me in that one. With apologies to the Bengals plus three and a half. I like the extra half point. And with apologies to the Jaguars plus three in San Diego, which is very tantalizing. But I'm just not putting Blake Bortles in the

Callaway par three yet. I'm taking my dude Jameis again. Jameis getting seven in Arizona. Jameis in the Bucs. Just feels a little high. I think the line, you know, I get it. The Cards are an excellent home team. They're motivated, their own one. I wasn't that impressed by him last week I thought I thought they looked sloppy and I didn't like their their GM came out after the game and was calling out guys and then the coach was calling out guys and feels a little dissension and I also didn't like how Palmer played I thought he missed some easy throws I thought he had guys open that whole game I thought he missed them sometimes through too early. It's a team that I think could get better as the year went along.

But right now, I don't know. I don't like them. And I think Tampa's going to go in there and go, we're winning this game. I think Jameis is going to be in that locker room before the game going, we're winning this game. We're going 2-0. We're going to do it. Let's do it. Let's go, guys. And last thing, that Arizona cornerback that the Pats picked on all game?

Brandon Williams, 26. That's not getting better. No. You know who's going to pick on him all game on Sunday? Jameis Winston. They're going to throw at him all game until Arizona figures out a plan B. I think it's just too many points I'm taking. Tampa plus seven.

What do you think, Lombardi? I like Tampa's team. I think they played really good run defense on the road against Atlanta. Kyle Shanahan can run the football, and they basically neutralized the Falcons' run game, averaged under three yards a carry last week, so I think that's an effective defense. And I do think they have the skill. Even if they get behind in this game,

Tampa has that ability to keep coming back. I think Winston, because of some of the ugly wins that he had at Florida State, and there was a few of them. I know they won nationally, but they were behind in games. The Louisville game, they come back. He's good at just keep playing just keep playing and and everybody's going to go to the game thinking well okay we lost the opener we're going to win this one get things back on track i think the worst thing you can do as a general manager i think steve kime does a great job i think arizona has a lot of talent on their team the worst thing nobody wants

to hear what the gm thinks until after the season. Just stay in the background. This isn't baseball. It's football. The coach, let the coach, and nobody wants to tell the players they're not playing good. Do that by the effect of Leo on their contract. And I think that's something that needs, that's a sense of desperation. As Springsteen says, don't confuse courage with desperation. I think that's more desperate than it is courageous.

Hass? I like the seven points exactly here for Arizona. This feels like, to me, a show-me game for Tampa. Has Tampa really taken the leap? They beat the hell out of an awful Falcons team last week, and we're going to see just how awful this week against the Raiders. I think if the Falcons team last week, and we're going to see just how awful this week against the Raiders. I mean, I think if the Falcons don't show up and are not competitive against Oakland, I'm ready to write them off for the balance of the season. On the other side, Bruce Arians has a terrific record after losing home games like that, like the home opener last week. His straight-up and against the spread record is impeccable.

And so I feel like Arizona does bounce back and does cover by sort of exactly the touchdown. I'm ready to invest in the Bucs. I was really impressed with what we saw out of them. Offensively last year, Jameis, the slimmed-down Jameis, you tweeted it out, was moving, and his accuracy looks greatly improved. The Bucs have not been great on the road the last couple years, so I'm just hedging it a hair.

I'm calling it a show-me game for the Bucs, and I'm putting my confidence in Bruce. I like Arizona by the seven. I would have taken the Raiders as one of my three, but their offensive line's a mess. I'd like to see one game with them. I think they lost both tackles. They're moving dudes around.

It makes me just nervous enough. But that and the secondary, which just couldn't cover anyone on the Saints. The secondary for me with the Raiders is last week against Brandon Cooks, you have to set secondary for me with the Raiders is this last week against Brandon Cooks. You have to set up your secondary like you set up a basketball team. You've got to have a guy that can cover the power forward.

You have a guy that can cover the point guard. And the Raiders have all guys that can cover power forwards. So they can't. And those quick little slot receivers are going to give the Raiders problems from now until the end of the season. The other factor with the Raiders that bothered me is last year they only won two games in a row twice. Handling success for a young team is difficult, and especially handling an emotional win like

they had against New Orleans. Can they come back? To me, if they lose that game, Del Rio walks in the locker room and says, see, guys, I told you, we're going to have to, we've got to really, this is a hard league to win games and we're not just, we can't just go out there and play. He's got an over, over joyful team. He's got to kind of monitor them down, manage the expectations. That's a challenge. Atlanta, on the other hand, is everybody's saying what Joe's saying is, is they're not any good. So Atlanta is going to go in there and they're going to take them for

granted. And I think that becomes the problem and you've got to be able to handle that. And that's why the Raiders would scare me. To me, the Raiders this week, it's a show me week this week for the Raiders. Like, let's see what you have because you're a good team. You can be a playoff team. The only thing that's going to stop you is your complacency. Would you trade for Matt Ryan? Would I trade for Matt Ryan?

I don't see how. If you needed a QB? Oh, yeah, but Atlanta's not going to trade Matt Ryan. They don't have anybody. Well, what if Atlanta was like, this isn't going anywhere, Matt Ryan, things are going the wrong way? I think Matt Ryan's the face of the franchise. Okay.

I think they're going to change the organization before they change Matt Ryan. Okay. What do you think, House? Yeah, it would be stunning in this iteration of iteration of the nfl to see a quarterback of matt ryan's uh caliber traded the guys that get traded are guys like sam bradford yeah but i'm not i mean the last couple years the matt ryan versus sam bradford i don't think it's been a dramatic difference i don't know i i just i thought Matt Ryan was going to be one of the guys. And especially like you look at that 2012

season and something happened. I don't know whether the offensive line or no running game, like whatever, but now he looks a little more jittery to me than he used to. They were right on the brink. I mean they were there. It was a one missed Tony Gonzalez open in the back

of the end zone completion to have them right where you expected them to be. They were there. It was a one-missed Tony Gonzalez open in the back of the end zone completion to have them right where you expected them to be. All right. House, good luck in the Callaway Part 3 this week. I know. I have a nice thing. The people at Callaway watched the terrible performance by me last week.

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Free shipping. Try those suckers out. Free shipping promo code HOW. So House went 0-5 last week and completely embarrassed himself, but somehow got a free shipping code out of it. Congratulations, House. We'll talk to you next Friday. And by the way, I only went 0-5 in the Super Contest. That was with

my money, not with the good people's money. Alright. We'll see you next week, House. Bye, House. Thanks, guys. Lombardi, where can we see you on Fox Sports and Fox Sports 1? Speak for yourself. I do speak for yourself. I also do the Skip Bayless and shannon sharp

undisputed and the colin cowhert show so all three and then this sunday on the fox pregame show at 11 o'clock they didn't make you know you didn't have to wear a wig and sit between coward and whitlock right i could use i could use a wig i cover up my bald spot there's no doubt i mean you know i mean since i'm in hollywood i should go get one. That or a facelift. And then you're back on Twitter. I'm back on Twitter. M. Lombardi on Fox TV. M. Lombardi on Fox TV.

You can follow Lombardi on Twitter. Are you going to tweet during the Sunday games? I basically forced you to get back on Twitter. You forced me. Yes, you held it. Yes, I told my son sent me a text saying, you're back on Twitter. And I said, the game ain't in me no more. But the game's got to be in me.

So I couldn't pull that one off. People in LA, send Lombardi recommendations for Italian restaurants in the LA area. Because he's just, they're not to his satisfaction. I can figure out, I gain all the weight I can and then I can go get plastic surgery. Why not, right? Well, it was awesome to have you back. We look forward to having you every Friday during the season. Oh, good.

Oh, wait, I have to. I think we should have like a mush bowl. I think there should be like a. What do you want to do? I think somebody should get like when you have an 0 for 5 week, you should carry the mush trophy with you until you win. Just carry like or like a garlic necklace or something? Exactly.

I think when you go 0 for 5, I think Sal's got to carry the mushroom trophy around. Thank you to stamps.com. Lombardi quit the

post office a long time ago. Buy and print official U.S. postage using your own computer and printer. Sign up for stamps.com. Use promo code BS

for a four-week trial plus a $110 bonus offer that includes postage and digital scale. Go to stamps.com. Click on the microphone on top of the homepage, type in BS. And if you go to Callaway, again, free shipping if you use house is the code, callaway.com. Thanks to HBO Now, HBO Go, and HBO On Demand.

That's where you can watch complete episodes, bonus clips from my new talk show any given Wednesday. Thanks to TheRinger.com and The Ringer Podcast Network. Check out on The Ringer. We did a video on joel m bead and his uh two year oh no now we're gonna go another 20 minutes we did a video on his instagram highlights that we did like a documentary that joel m bead tweeted that he liked he did a tweet so we're rooting for joel m bead it'd be fun if he was good i know you're rooting for him too

you lucked out with this Ben Simmons. I think he has a chance to be special. You finally got a guy who might be special. I think the coach is great. To endure what he's endured. I couldn't do it for two years. He did. To endure three years.

Wasn't it three? Well, yeah. Three. To endure what he did without. Yeah, this would be the third year. Oh, this would be the third year, yeah. To do what he did without developing a drinking problem or a drug problem is amazing remark but the problem is they didn't trade and bead or uh i'm sorry they didn't trade uh noel or okafer in june and now

they're looking at like 30 cents on the dollar for those guys thanks for that bill well because you can't you can't play more than two big guys they also have sarich who i like so somebody's gonna be sitting on the bench and they're gonna be shopping them and i'm gonna end up my team's gonna end up getting new orleans de moelle for terry rogier thank you thank you you'll like him he's good uh thanks to the ringer.com thanks to lombardi thanks to joe house uh enjoy the weekend we'll be back next week new hbo show new podcast it was great to have you back serious great to be here

it was awesome anytime y'all wanna see me again rewind this track right here close your eyes and picture me rolling