The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 13: NFL + NBA Over/Under w/ Joe House (East)

Episode Date: October 24, 2015

HBO's Bill Simmons makes Week 7 NFL best bets, and breaks down the Vegas Over/Unders for wins with the NBA's Eastern Conference teams along with his buddy Joe House. Includes four gambling locks free of charge! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by RealtyShares. Here's a much less frustrating way to diversify your risk than listening to me in-house make football bets. Just invest in real estate at RealtyShares.com. Browse professionally vetted investments in just a few minutes and invest as little as $1,000 per transaction. Register at no cost at RealtyShares.com slash BS and join the thousands of investors who have already registered with

over $10 million already in return to investors to date. That's RealtyShares.com slash BS. The Bill Simmons podcast is also brought to you by HBO because they were nice enough to give me my own television show that launches next spring. Thank you, HBO. This Saturday night at 930 on HBO, undefeated Terrence Crawford defends his super lightweight title against Joe House. It's Joe House's first professional fight. No, it's actually De'Arigene. Crawford is undefeated. He's fun to watch and

people are starting to wonder, is he going to be the next Floyd Mayweather? Check him out Saturday, 9.30 on HBO. And with that, I think this is the 12th podcast. Still no entrance music. America's national nightmare continues. God, we need music. But at least we have Joe House and we're very excited for this podcast. Every year we do over-unders for the NBA win totals. House and I take this very seriously. We do research. We try to one-up each other. We have locks.

People listen to our bets. Last year we did okay. The year before we did amazing. And I'm really excited for this. But as usual on Fridays, we're going to do NFL picks as well. And I just wanted to mention, you can get these podcasts at BillSimmonspodcast.com. Thank you to iTunes for all the love they've given. You can get them on iTunes, get them on SoundCloud. We're working out something with Stitcher. I like Stitcher. I think that's a good app. I think we're going to get something done with that. So hopefully we're going to add that soon. And without further ado, the man, the myth,

the legend, Joseph House, how are you? It's a holy day. It's a blessed day. It's a day for a free-flowing conversation that may occasionally touch on mature subjects. Yeah, where we might say words like fuck every once in a while. I probably won't. I'll say a couple. I'll say a couple for us. You carry the F-bomb load for us. All right, so here's the deal. We are doing NFL picks for week seven quickly, and then we're going to do the Eastern Conference NBA over-under win totals. That is part one.

Part two, we're going to do the Western Conference. We're going to tape it today on a Friday, so hopefully nobody gets hurt. And we're going to run that on Tuesday because the NBA season starts next week, and we've got to get this up. So Eastern Conference today, Western Conference part two. Right now, week seven. Oh, wait a second. I have the wrong file open.

Well, there's not that many games this week. It's a slate of 13 because there was one last night. I have the right file. So I'm having a good year picking games. You know what's really helped me is being able to do the picks on Sunday instead of Friday.

And I always used to bitch about the Friday picks because I had my column due. Now I get the two extra days and it's really helped me. I'm 51-37-4 in the season. Hit the Seahawks last night. Dude, who'd you have last night?

Seahawks. Yeah. Desperate defense against Kaepernick. That's all I needed. I didn't even care what the line was. Sunday best bets on Instagram, 11-5-2. We did best bets on Friday. I encourage you to check Twitter and Instagram

if you're actually listening to our picks because we, you know, like last week, the Washington professional football team, we both picked them on Friday. And then it became clear that they were seriously banged up heading into the Sunday game. And I actually switched my pick. I didn't care. I didn't care what I told the podcast listeners. That was a good switch by you. I saw that and had the same sentiment.

You know, the crazy thing about that, the D.C. Grudens, they have won five out of their six games at halftime. Too bad those games can't be over at halftime. It's too bad things like halftime adjustments matter. Let's go over. Here are the games we're not picking. Every week we pick five bets. I think we're either slightly over 500 or 500.

I think we're over 500, though. We're not picking Skins minus three and a half at home over Tampa. I'm going to take the Skins. I don't feel good about it. You have the Skins, I bet, right? I do. Falcons minus six at Tennessee. I'm probably taking Atlanta.

I think Wisenhunt is right now the reigning worst coach in the league. I don't feel good about that one either. How about you? I'm probably taking Atlanta because Marietta still may not play. Chiefs are giving... What's the line now for that Chiefs game? Three and a half? Is that right? That can't be right. It was off the board from what I was looking at. Yeah, alright. Whatever that line is.

We don't know about Big Ben playing. I'm taking the Steelers and I'm still excited that I was the last person to find out that Landry Jones is white. I had no idea. Cardinals, Ravens, that line is seven and a half, and the Ravens are just getting three points of respect that they don't deserve every week, and I'm going to keep banging whoever they're playing until that changes. Cardinals, I like them, but I didn't like them enough to pick it. Yeah.

You have that same? I do. All right. I'm not going to make an argument like them enough to pick it. Yeah. You have that same? I do. All right. I'm not going to make an argument on behalf of the Ravens. No, they're done. Put a fork in them. All right, here are our picks. You have Buffalo and Jacksonville in London.

The Bills are favored by four points. Who do you have in this as one of your best bets? I'm going back to London. Yeah. Notwithstanding the bad taste left in my mouth. The mistake previously was picking against the better team. This time, I'm not going to make that mistake taking Buffalo. Okay. I like Buffalo as well, but I don't, I eat no Sammy Watkins and backup quarterback. I don't feel good about it. I didn't want to join you on that one.

And I'm not joining you on this next one. Minnesota giving two points in Detroit. Teddy Bridgewater laying points on the road makes me nervous, but obviously you're not nervous. Who'd you have? I have been very hesitant and reserved with respect to this Minnesota team all season long. I'm finally ready to go ahead and jump in on them. On a power ranking

basis, at least one of the metrics have Minnesota as like a four or five point better team. I just, this is another game where line under three points, I just want to take the better team. Yeah. And Minnesota is my selection on that basis. I respect it. I'm not taking Teddy Bridgewater on the road. Sorry, Teddy. All right, this is mine. Rams laying six and a half to Josh McCown and the Browns. Josh McCown threw for a lot of yards on Baltimore, and everybody decided that Josh McCown was maybe a late bloomer or something.

He's been on 10 teams in 12 years. Congratulations for throwing for 500 yards against the terrible Ravens, but you're going into the Lions's den against a really good Rams defense that didn't play last week. And if you're trailing by 10 in the second half, there's going to be turnovers. And I think the Rams defense covers the spread by itself with Gurley finishing them off.

Rams minus 6.5 over the Browns. That's funny. I like the Browns, and I'm willing to be wrong here. I'm not against it. I liked the way they played against Denver last week. I was really impressed. I think six and a half is just too many. I still like the Rams to win, but I respect the Browns.

That's why I stayed away. Okay. Dolphins, the rejuvenated Dolphins, the Joe Philbin-less Dolphins, laying four and a half at home against Houston. I think Houston's one of the four worst teams in the league. You and I are in lockstep agreement on that. Yeah, and the Dolphins are mediocre to decent now that they actually might have a coaching staff and some purpose.

Decent defense. Cameron Wakes back. He had a big week last week. Lamar Miller, they give him the ball no more, figuring out how to use drivervis Landry. Just feels like another blowout for them, followed by everybody going, oh my god, the Dolphins are 3-3. What happened?

I like the Dolphins. I think that line's two points too low. Yeah, I'm not. This is not one of my selections either, but I'm also taking the Dolphins. I do not have this one, but you do. Indianapolis laying 4.5 points to the Saints. So I like Indy. There's a nice trend here. They're 17-3 against the spread after a straight-up loss.

I like that trend line. And on a power ranking basis, they're five to six points better than New Orleans. And I also think that New Orleans is one of the four worst teams in the NFL this year. So I like Indy giving the points. I thought Indianapolis played pretty well in that New Orleans, in the Patriots game last Sunday for about two and a half quarters, and the fake punt murdered them. Just murdered their souls.

They showed the identity that everybody was investing in at the beginning of the season with Indy as kind of a sleeper pick for great things this year, maybe making the Super Bowl. That two and a half quarters that we watched was the thing that everybody's been looking for. And that's another reason why. If they're going to really start playing like that and Luck is back and he's fully healthy and he looked very good against the Pats, then I really like Indy in this spot. I think you got way too excited about Indy just there.

I think you need to settle down. Throw a big glass of water on yourself. I just don't think the Patriots played that well, but I thought the Colts played well. The Pats, to me, it just seems like they wanted to get out of there doing as little as possible and winning. And even like it was like they knew they were going to get the ball in the second half and score.

They knew they were going to take a lead, and then they just completely threw away the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball three times and punted. Like, they just wanted to get out of there without anyone seeing anything, which I thought was a weird way to handle it. I would agree. Anytime that there's a minute left in the game and the other team is within a touchdown and is kicking an onside kick,

I mean, you know, the game is still in doubt. Yeah. a touchdown and is kicking an onside kick. I mean, you know, the game is still in doubt. Yeah. The Pats took their foot off the pedal and put the game in doubt as a result. I did not like that. They hurt my feelings, and we'll get to them soon enough. That's what they did against Pittsburgh in Week 1, too. If you're a gambler, you just hate that. But the Pats, it's just Milton Berle just pulling out enough cock to win every week.

Just pulling out enough. I win every week just pulling out enough I'll give a little more foreskin here okay this is mine Raiders getting four and a half in San Diego I thought this was the weirdest line of the week San Diego has

the opposite of a home field advantage you might have 30,000 Raider fans in this game I think San Diego shot their wide last week in Green Bay the opposite of a home field advantage. You might have 30,000 Raider fans in this game. I think San Diego shot their wide last week in Green Bay. Great effort, fell a little bit short. And I don't think the Raiders are that bad. I think these teams are even. At the very least, it's a three-point game.

I actually think the Raiders can win, so I'm taking the Raiders plus four and a half. I'm going to take the Raiders too, but that's not one of my lock picks. San Diego, two consecutive weeks, have played well enough to win and just come up short. They're not that bad offensively. Their defense is a whole other deal. They can't run the ball, though. All right, next one.

We've got to go quicker than this. It's my fault. I'm doing a bad job as the host. You have the Pats and the Jets. The line is eight. It's in New England. Who do you have in this? I have the Jets. I'm all over the Jets. I'm all in and the Jets. The line is eight. It's in New England. Who do you have in this? I have the Jets.

I'm all over the Jets. I'm all in on the Jets. Eight is just too many under these circumstances. Well, I can't believe I'm saying this, but I agree with you. I did not make that one of my best bets because I would never do that to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and the kids who are dying from drinking Coca-Cola every day. There's a little stat. The Jets are 5-0 against the spread when New England is undefeated.

In the circumstances under which the two teams have faced each other, Pat's 0-5 against the spread. All right, I'll give you a little stat. We have no offensive linemen left. That's a stat. The Pats don't cover spreads over seven points when they're down to their 17th string offensive linemen. I didn't look that up.

I'm just guessing. And against a defense that's going to blitz 93% of the time. Yeah, and I don't know if Marcus Cannon's playing or not, but I think the Pats are banged up. They're slowly heading toward that injury point of no return for a 16-0 season. They're losing too many guys. Here's why I didn't pick it.

I think the line's a little bit too high. But Fitzpatrick, by himself, could give the Pats a cover in this game he could just throw three terrible passes you know and all of a sudden the Pats are up 30 to 10 you feel like an idiot because he took the Jets but I I don't the Pats offensive line situation is worrisome because it wasn't great to begin with they lose Nate Solder Cannon gets hurt guys are moving around and uh it's a concern I really think it's one of the reasons they threw away the fourth quarter of that Colts game. I don't think they wanted Brady to take a big hit

when they had a lead. So they're just like, screw it. We're going to run the ball and get out of here. The Jets are good, by the way. They've out-gamed every team they've played so far. They're pretty good. They haven't played anybody good yet, have they? The best one was against Indy in week one. They hammered

Indy, though. Or was that week two? FYI, Indy's not good. What are you talking about? They played the Browns, the Colts, the Eagles they lost to, the Dolphins, and the Washington professional football team. Show me something, something, Jets.

Here's the game. This is the time for them to do it, right? Yeah. All right, so I have the Panthers laying three and a half to the Eagles. I think the Eagles suck. I don't care what's happened. I don't care that they beat up on the Saints. I don't care that Eli threw them some picks and they won 27-7.

When I watch Eagles games, I never feel like it's a well-coached, efficient, good football team. I just feel like it's, I doncoached, efficient, good football team. I just feel like it's, I don't know, they seem disjointed. I don't trust Bradford at all. I especially don't trust Bradford in Carolina. Are you kidding me? And I only have to lay three and a half points?

And Cam Newton's the MVP right now. Well, I like the Eagles getting that extra half point. Good. Let's go head-to-head. For sure. I like the Eagles front seven. I think their defense isto-head. For sure. I like the Eagles' front seven. I think their defense is good, trending towards very good. I don't disagree. Their offense fits everything you just described.

Disjointed, only effective in spurts. You know what this feels like to me, Hass? The goose egg game. Like the Eagles literally scoring no points. Like they lose 16 to nothing. That's fine. I'm taking them. Okay.

Let's go ahead, Ed. We agree on one game. The Giants are giving three and a half points at home to the Cowboys of Dallas and Matt Castle. Who do you have in this? Dallas. Oh. I like the, the rested underdog angle.

Interesting. I did not expect that. And I like the angle that they've lost three straight, straight up and against the spread. Wow. And you think their defense and the whole thing

I'm laying the points with the Giants Eli has been doing this for 15 years 20 years 25 years I don't remember

how long he's been in the league where he just looks terrible and everybody writes him off and wonders what they're ever thinking with Eli Manning

and then he has an awesome game the next week and that's the only reason I'm taking them I'm taking them. Yeah, I'm not writing off Eli or the Giants. The Giants hurt my feelings last week also.

I thought they were one of the top, you know, 10, 11 teams. That's a good way to put it. Yeah, they hurt my feelings too. They were feelings hurt by their performance last week. It was a slew of broken feelings. It was. Okay, let's recap quickly. You have Buffalo minus four. You have Minnesota minus two.

You have Indy minus four and a half. You have the Jets plus eight. And you have the Giants. I'm sorry, the Dallas Cowboys plus three and a half. I have the Giants minus three and a half in that game. I have the Rams minus six and a half. Dolphins minus four and a half. Chargers plus four and a half.5. Dolphins minus 4.5. Chargers plus 4.5.

Panthers minus 3.5. And let's get to NBA. You know what, though? I think we run an ad. Yeah, let's do it. Yeah, let's pay tribute to one of our friends. Oh, one of my favorites. House, I keep telling you about SeatGeek.

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So here's what we do. We have the over-unders that are issued by Las Vegas and the casinos and the gambling industry. And they look at every team and they say, Hmm, this team is going to win blank wins, either bet over or under that number. And their goal is to put the number in a place where House and I have to agonize over whether we're going over or under. So, for instance, we're going to go at Eastern Conference and we're going to go by divisions

this year. Tate Frazier, our producer, he did a lot of research for us and he separated everybody by divisions. So Toronto is our first one. Their over is 46. So if we go over, that means we think they're going to go 47 and 35 or better. If we go under, that means we think they're going to go 45 and 37 or worse. And here's what happened with Toronto this year. They added Damari Carroll. They spent some money on him. They lost Amir Johnson and Lou Williams.

And they added a bunch of like Luis Scola, Corey Joseph, Bismack Biambo, Anthony Benet types. The big news with them though, Kyle Lowry lost some weight. He's fast. He's fast quicker than ever. Kyle Lowry, He's motivated. He scored 40 points

in a preseason game. He's a maniac. First of all, do you want to congratulate him for getting in shape when he's a professional athlete who may take figures a year, or do you want me to do it? You have it. You take it. I actually was pretty impressed with his performance last year. He didn't look pudgy

to me. He got worn down in the playoffs, and I was fine with that because it was against my team. But did he look fat to you last season? He really wore down last year, and it did look like he was physically breaking down a little bit. Here's the thing. Fat point guards don't last. I'm not saying he was fat, but, you know, it's like the Sherm Douglas,

John Bagley, like those guys are not playing when they're 38 years old. They seem to have a quick show of life. So get in shape, and he got in shape. Like the Sherm Douglas, John Bagley. Those guys are not playing when they're 38 years old. Ray Felton? Yeah, Ray Felton. They have a quick shelf life. So get in shape. And he got in shape. Congratulations to him for being in shape when that's his only job. DeMar DeRozan contract year.

Jonas got a four-year, $64 million extension, which I think is pretty tradable for them. They never totally figured out how to use him. The Jonas versus Amir Johnson, it seemed like they were never totally comfortable playing both of them at the same time. Now my guess is they're going to go a little more small ball. So maybe like their crunch time is Lowry, DeRozan, Jonas, Damari Carroll, maybe Patrick Patterson is the stretch four and that's who they're going to roll with? What do you think?

Yep. Yeah, that's exactly the lineup I expect. You know, that's the crunch time lineup. All right, so what do you have? I like them winning 47 games this year. So you have over. They won 49 last year. Right, yeah.

So I'm just taking the over on this. I think the Lou Williams departure is going to be a little bit of an issue for them. But improving on defense is the right frame of mind. And they won 49 last year with the Rosen missing 22 games. Yeah. They have the benefit of a still putrid East. So I like the over here. I don't love it, but I like it. Yeah.

It feels weird to go under because then you have to point to at least two other teams in this division that are going to win more than you think. And we know one of them, but we, you know, then you're basically saying the Knicks are going to win 40 games or something. And I don't feel good about saying that. I, uh, I'm intrigued by this team. something. And I don't feel good about saying that. I'm intrigued by this team.

Here's what I don't like about them. You know, Amir Johnson's one of those guys, and this is why he's going to be awesome in the Celtics. He's one of those, he doesn't need the ball. He's going to do all the dirty work stuff. He's going to set picks. He's going to guard the other team's best low post guy. Doesn't care about minutes.

Great chemistry guy. You pull that out and now you have this team where just go down the line, right? Lowry's the guy. DeRozan's in a contract year. Jonas wants the ball a little bit more. Carroll just signed this big free agent contract, wants to prove he's the guy. Just worries me that they don't have the guy who does the little things. And maybe that'll be Carroll because that's what he did in Atlanta. But from a front court standpoint, you know, who's guarding like the best low post guy on the other team? Right now it's Luis Scola, Jonas, Patrick Patterson. I don't feel good about that.

They have a power forward problem. Yeah. But you can trade for that too as the season goes along. So it'd be hard. I'd be surprised if they won less than 46. All right, let's go to my favorite team, the Boston Celtics, and the dumbest over-under of the year, 43-1⁄2. Go ahead and make the case.

Well, they were 20-10 down the stretch last year. They were an above-500 team as soon as they got Isaiah Thomas. Their biggest issue was they had bad big guys. They brought in David Lee and Amir Johnson. They're going to be better offensively.

The David Lee, Isaiah Thomas pick and roll is actually a professional basketball play. It's pretty impressive. Like watching the preseason, it's a crunch time play that you could run

and get baskets and open shots from. And they have a lot of depth that I think that's their biggest advantage is they have too many good, too many decent to good role players. And they're going to have 11 to 12 guys. And for, for the course of a season, when guys get hurt, guys get dinged up, they're just going to be able to keep throwing guys in. I also think Marcus Smart's going to have a big jump this year because I obviously watch the Celtics. He sprained his ankle pretty early on in the season last year badly. Came back, hurt it again. He's never like 100% healthy. He's a rookie, doing dumb rookie things.

I just think he's going to be a lot better. And I don't know. I like the team. I like the chemistry. I just think he's going to be a lot better. And I don't know. I like the team. I like the chemistry. I like the coach. This team's built for a regular season, like 47 to 48 win type of season. I really feel that.

I wanted to be skeptical. That last point you just made is the point that I was going to make. They're a team that needs to play hard through the entire balance of the regular season. They're not going to be taking games off. Yeah. Right, exactly. They have to and they will.

They're now trying to shape themselves into – they want to find an identity. They have all these guards. And it is an improvement to have David Lee and Amir Johnson in the fold on the big side. But they still have to sort out what their identity is with all these guards and who's going to be most efficient playing with one another. And I think that means they're going to be playing hard each and every game. And I respect Brad Stevens, president-elect Brad Stevens, so much that I think they are going to be like a 46, 47, 48 win team. He dropped out of the race a day after Joe Biden. It didn't get enough as much attention.

Joe Biden, plus 1500 we had him at. Come on, Joe. Here's another sneaky thing about this Celtics team. They have a bunch of good defenders now, right? Avery Bradley is a good defensive player. Marcus Smart is an excellent possible Tony Allen level someday defensive player. Amir Johnson...

Amir Johnson is a very good defensive player. Jay Crowder is an excellent perimeter guy who, you know, he's a little Draymond Green on defense. He really is. My point is, if somebody gets hot on the other team,

they have a guy to throw at that person. You know? If there's some swing man's hot, oh, put Jay Crowder, go get him. Some guard is lighting it up, hey, Marcus, go cover this guy. Or Avery. Like, they have guys to throw at hot guys, and I think that helps during the season. They were middle of the pack defensively, 12th out of 30 defensive rating.

But what I really, really, really like, and this is the thing that makes me overcome the skepticism, I want to roll out some skepticism to throw some water on your home or fire. Very fair. I can't do it. The Amir Johnson rim protector role was the crucial hole defensively, I felt like, for this team. And I think he's going to make a difference. An adult to guard the low post.

Last year you had Sollinger, you had Olenek, you had Zeller. These aren't guys that are going to shut down Tim Duncan. Amir Johnson's at least going to make Tim Duncan think about what he's doing in the low post and whoever, whatever else low post. I'm going to throw another name at you. You know I'm not prone to hyperbole with rookies. Okay? So I want you to take a seat and really take a deep breath here.

All right. And I didn't like their draft. I will admit I did not like the draft. I really wanted Justice Winslow. I was devastated. I was mad at MJ for being an idiot as usual and not just trading the number nine pick for

four first rounders. This guy, RJ Hunter, that they picked at like 28, shooting guard, and everyone's like, oh, he's a three-point shooter. This guy's good. I'm telling you. This guy's a real NBA player. He's like a half step ahead of the action.

Really smart. Just knows what to do and where to go. And I think he's going to play. I think he's a real two guard. I like him. Who is he going to get minutes ahead of? This is the problem. I actually think he's going to take minutes from Avery Bradley and Evan Turner.

Wow. Okay. I think he's a real two guard. They don't have a two guard with size. And he's, you watch, you watch one Celtic game. This is my lock. Even over, I have the Celtics as a lock over 43 and a half. This is an even bigger lock. You texting me within the first 20 games to tell me that you like RJ Hunter.

Now I should mention, I called him CJ Hunter in a text to my dad a week ago. So this is how new this is for me. I've heard enough. I think he's going to have a hard time cracking the rotation. It's already like a 12-man rotation. You watch. So you,

are we doing individual locks? Go ahead. Yeah, that's my individual lock. My first one, 43.5 over Celtics, done. I'm in. Terry Rozier was in the Louisville sex scandal. We just have to mention that.

He was. He was in it. What does that mean exactly? I don't know. I think it's good karma for the Celts. We haven't had a scandal in a while. Yeah, good karma because of the Patino angle. It's sweet justice for Patino.

Here's my quick take on Patino. If he didn't know, he should get fired. And if he did know, he should resign. Either way, he should be out. How do you have a hooker? How are you presiding over a program that has a hooker scandal? Either way, you should go. Can't survive that one. Seems like a tough one

to get over. If there was a Grantland hooker scandal when I was running Grantland and my man Danny Chow was secretly running hookers in and out of the Grantland offices with potential interns and I didn't know about it,

I would resign. That's my fault. I should have known about it, I would resign. It's like, that's my fault. I should have known Danny Chow was doing this. The thing is, Danny Chow wouldn't do that because he loves food too much. He would be too obsessed with food over finding the hookers. True. Alright, let's go to the Knicks. Let's go to the Knicks.

Porzingis is going to start, apparently. I read that news. Their over is 30? Their over is 30. Their coach is Derek Fisher. Well, no, their over is 31. Well, yeah, they have to go 31 and 51 and beat the over. Here's everyone they added.

Chris Porzingis. Aaron Aflalo, who sucked last year. Robin Lopez, who got destroyed in the playoffs. Kyle O'Quinn, who I really like. Kevin Serafin, who you watched in Washington for a while and did not like. And I really like. Derek Williams, who is in the last stage of when a high lottery pick kind of loses it in the NBA. He now has like this frosted cornrow hairdo.

Anytime the hairdo gets super wonky, you know the guy's on his way to China. And Sasha the Machine Vujicic. Also, first round, pick Jerry and Grant, the Knicks like. Everybody they lost did not matter because none of them were good. So last year they were the worst team in the league offensively. This year they have Carmelo coming back. Their crunch time five is Calderon, Aflalo, Robin Lopez, Carmelo, and Porzingis with Langston Galloway, Derek Williams,

Kyle O'Quinn, and a bunch of dudes. You're breathing into the phone like we're having phone sex. Watch how you're breathing. I'm holding the phone with my arm while I get my research. I have hot points to make here. You don't have to heavy breathe in the sex. Watch the heavy breathing. I'm holding the phone with my arm while I get my research. I have hot points to make here. You don't have to heavy breathe in the thing. You're not going to believe this. I'm going over.

I'm going over 30. Whoa! Yeah, and here's why. Wow. Carmelo Anthony is still one of the best 10 players in basketball, and he's motivated, and he's going to be awesome for at least the first two months because either he's going to try to get them into the playoffs or he's going to be showcasing himself for a trade and i just think either way they're going to be a little better than people think for a couple months and then there'll be some fork in the road moment but the east sucks

like why they can't go 32 and 50 They don't even have their first round pick. What incentive do they have to suck? They have no pick. They have no incentive to suck, but they do suck. And they will suck. They're going to start this rookie who looks like he's 7'4 and weighs 193 pounds. Hey, settle down. I like Porzingis.

He looks like he has actual basketball talent. I have no qualms with his you know, he looks like he understands the game, at least in Summer League. He just got pushed around by everybody. No, no, no. What I'm doing is recognizing the positive, but

who is he going to stop? The only blocks he's going to get is when he puts his arms straight up and somebody throws the ball into his hands. Now, his wingspan is 11 feet, 14 inches. I mean, it's astounding. So he will get blocks, but he can't guard anybody straight up. And they were already the 28th worst team in the league.

Can I interject? I think he's a slightly better defender than you're giving him credit for. I saw him in Summer League when I was unemployed. I watched him defend Okafor on the Sixers. And he's actually stronger than I thought. It wasn't like a Sean Bradley

Tishcavilli situation where he was just getting bulldozed in the low post. Like he actually... Well, we must have watched different games because I watched Jaleel Lokofor push him all over the court. I might not have seen that game. I'll also remind you that the rules in Summer League

indulge 10 fouls. These are all fair points. I don't know. I liked him. He reminded me of like if young Rick Smits could shoot threes. That's how I felt about Porzingis. Like he had kind of the Smiths pre-broken foot body and he moved

much better than I expected, but his three-point stroke is really good. He's interesting. I got excited when he was on the floor. I enjoyed watching him. With that said, Hazonia is going to haunt the Knicks fans to the point that it's going to reach

Stevie Nicks, Lindsey Buckingham levels. I just feel like you love him. I love his own. Yeah. I'd love his own. Yeah. God, the Knicks fans are going to be bummed out when they watch his own.

Yeah. That guy's going to light up the internet, man. He's going to do a lot of, some of the dunks on the YouTubes already are, are ferocious. I'm pretty sure I rather would have Hazonia and some random free agent who could rebound than Porzingis and all that money they spent on Aaron Aflalo.

Well, I did my best with all the skepticism. I think they're going to win 31 or 32 games also, so I'm taking the over. Oh, why were you surprised that I did the over? I thought that you would be perpetrating a narrative where Melo on the trade block is going to be gone before they can get to enough wins to actually matter. And I actually think he's going to get traded this year. I do too. But he'll get traded for a bunch of guys that will make them better.

Well, that's the interesting thing. The team that I think he's going to by hook or by crook, I haven't yet sat down with a trade machine to make this work. I think he's going to the Miami Heat. It's what I think. And there are title odds for the Miami Heat on this little basis that make me hungry. And you know how I get when I'm hungry. So you're saying like, see, I don't need the trade machine because I'm a savant.

You're saying like Lowell Dang, Luau Dang, Luau Dang. I've never been able to say it right. Everyone makes fun of me for it. I don't care. Make fun of me all you want. Luol Deng. Josh McRoberts contract. Justice Winslow.

Yes, exactly. This is the deal. But that's it. They don't have any first round picks. That's really all they could offer. Well, Winslow is the first round pick. He was worth six first round picks to the Celtics or whatever they offered. Exactly.

And he is right now, as we sit here, better than the guy that the Knicks took. Yeah. God, they're going to regret that one too. I feel bad for the Knicks fans. I still like Porzingis, but it's just going to be clear within about 30 games that they yet again— I'm going to be sending you clips. I can't wait of him getting pushed around. I think Carmelo goes to

Chicago, but what do I know? Oh, interesting. Chicago has the right pieces for 3-1 or 4-1. Hey, Tate, do you like Porzingis? Yeah. Tate nodded excitingly. I just asked him if he wanted a lap dance. What's Tate's scene of Porzingis? I don't know. Tate's from like excitingly Like I just asked him if he wanted a lap dance

What's Tate seen in poor Zingas? I don't know Tate's from Carolina man That's fine He's from the tobacco state He grew up watching Carolina and Duke And Lin Bias Tate's got creds for sure Tate sucked up to you

Vicariously because he knew I'd tell you About how much he loved Lin Bias in the mid 80's The clips and stuff. I know. We're boys. We're boys for life. All right, Brooklyn. Over 28. This is a tough one because this is probably the worst team in the league,

but yet they don't have their first-round pick this year. Trade swap with the Celtics next year where they get the worst of that pick, and then the Celtics have their 2018 pick. They have no incentive to tank at all, and yet they might not have a choice because their team is so atrocious. First of all, Philadelphia is furious at you right now. Yeah, you're right. Calling Brooklyn the worst team in the league.

Come on. All right, well, let me throw this team at you. Jared Jack. Jared Jack's going to be the playmaker slash creator. I'm enjoying that already. That's an issue. Bogdanovich, who I kind of like. I'm not going to down him.

Me too. I kind of like him. Brooke Lopez, look good last 20 games, gets hurt pretty much every year. It's basically like the Eagles saying that this is the year for Sam Bradford. That's what this is the year for Brooke Lopez makes me feel like. Joe Johnson, contract year, going backwards. Everyone who's ever watched Joe Johnson lost the will to watch Joe Johnson years and years ago. Thad Young, they gave four years $50 million to, which I thought was an interesting move.

Fair deal. Okay. Sounds good. I don't have any problem with that. And then their bench is basically Bargnani, Rondé Hollis Jefferson, who they drafted. He got in a draft day trade. And Shane Larkin. First of all, a hearty congratulations to Billy King for assembling that murderous roster.

I have under 28, and I'm making it a lock because that team is awful. They are awful. They are, you know, a fun fact that I came to observe while I was doing a little research on the Nets. Are you aware that your boy Prokhorov has paid $130 million in luxury tax since he arrived? So essentially, he paid all the other owners whatever he paid for the Nets franchise. And then he's like, hey, guys, how about another $130 million on top of that? He's amazing.

I mean, talk about splash the pot. I love him. He's splash the pot. Lord have mercy. The advanced metrics are very, very unkind to Jared Jack. There are some that suggest he's the worst point guard in the league. The worst starting point guard in the league. I'm getting my boy Haralbas Valgares on next week,

and I'm just going to specifically point him toward Jared Jack and let him rant for 40. I think it's his least favorite player in the league. Just everything. He does everything that you don't want. If you're looking at basketball from a new wave standpoint, let me ask you this. What would it take for you to watch a random Brooklyn Nets game that didn't involve your team or like Kevin Durant trying to score 70 points or some sort of out of the box and like Clay Thompson's going for 12 threes.

What would it take for you to just be like flicking channels? Oh, here are the nets. I'm just going to sit down and with the nets for an hour. There's only one thing. And that is, uh, Andrea Bargnani on the court. Oh, if he, if he's on the court, I'll watch for, for, for sort of car wreck purposes. God, this team is the only, is the only reason that I court that I'll watch for sort of car wreck purposes. God, this team's got to— Barg is the only reason that I stop at all.

I'm not interested in anybody else. I feel bad for Thad Young because I like his game, and I think that he's still playing hard, and I think that he earned that contract. Maybe that's somebody— But that's the only one. Yeah, that's somebody you might be able to trade for a pick at some point if somebody needs

something. He's roughly at the level of Jeff Green last year, who at the Celtics we get a first-round pick for. But you're taking the under. That's 27 wins. That's... I just think they're terrible. How does that team win 30 games? What am I missing?

I'm going to take the over. The reason is because they only have to win 29. And Philadelphia and Orlando both play in the East still. Good. You enjoy that over. You're the same man who took Joe Philbin in London. So I feel even better. Can I just tell you, I really want you to think about this all weekend.

I'm so excited that the Celtics have their next three years of picks. I think if I did a fantasy draft of all the things in my life that I'm the most excited about, I think that might be number one. Even more than the fact that my son is good at hockey all of a sudden. Yeah, your daughter's travel soccer team is terrific too. My daughter almost had a quadruple-double in the basketball game on Monday. I'm more excited about the three first-round picks than anything else going on in my life.

This is unbelievable. It's an unprecedented windfall of good fortune. We have three first-round picks in a row from the team you would want three first round picks from if you just did a draft of 30 teams. This is the team you would pick. It's amazing. I'm fine with it.

I still think they're going to get 29 wins. Although I got to say, my son being good at hockey might actually make me happier. I saw the clip. He looked awesome. My son is a mass hole who somehow grew up in LA, but really would have been better suited for, for Massachusetts with,

he loves hockey and he loves swearing and, uh, and loves not having a lot of clothes on and it just would have been perfect. I feel bad that I, I have him growing up here. All right. So you, I have under 28,

you have over 28. You're going to lose that one. I'm telling you right now, Sixers. Let's go quickly with the Sixers. I'm so tired of talking about them. Their over is 21 and a half. They traded Michael Carter Williams for this pick that they might not ever get in the way they wanted to get it, right?

It was the Lakers pick, right? Yeah. Did they get it? This would be the year they got it. They didn't get it last year because the Lakers got into the lottery. It was protected, exactly. Yeah, so now there's all these weird protections on it. Okafor I like.

Me too. I think he's a 2010 possibility on a team that wins 15 games. I thought they stole Stauskas from the Kings. I like that trade, too. But you know what's the problem? They spent the third pick on the back on Joel Embiid, and we haven't seen him yet. And we're not going to see him this year. We're not going to see him this year.

And there's just a variety of reports that make me nervous about him, including stuff like, yeah, the Sixers think maybe he didn't wear his walking boot enough I read that same story yeah his weight is up yeah they think he's partying too much like it's none of it's good it makes me sad because I watched him in a gym like six weeks before that draft right before he got hurt he hurt his back and back or his foot or whatever he hurt, and the guy was a beast, and I would have bet my life that he was going to become like a nine-time All-Star. It's too bad.

We're both taking the under. Yeah. New Orleans and Okafor is interesting. That's honestly the reason that I would stop and watch. I would watch them more than I would watch the net. Here's why I'm taking the under because at some point as I was doing the research, I muttered to myself, well, a lot here depends on if Isaiah Cannon and Kendall Marshall can,

can create some offense for these guys. And then I was like, Oh, I'm going to go under. Well, the under is still three games better than last year. We win the under if they win 21 games. I'm fine with that. Does Hinkie, if they go like 18 and 64 again? I mean, how long can the Sixer fans be okay with this? They still only have two professional basketball players,

two NBA-level talent guys. Sarich is another year away now? He's going to take his time. I'm sorry. He can't really come up. I guess Covington is now NBA-grade as a role player also. Sure. Great. All right, Central Division.

This isn't a lot, but they're an under. Central Division. The Cavs are lot, but they're an under. Central Division. The Cavs are 57 and a half. Tough number. They added Mo Williams, basically. I'm not counting Richard Jefferson. Mo Williams. Doesn't count.

Mo Williams will probably win them a couple games in the first two months when some of these guys are injured. They have Shumpert's out for three months. J.R. Smith is starting. Mozgov's back. Tristan Thompson just came back. His agent saved some face after repeatedly rejecting

a five-year $80 million offer that was already obscene. Somehow got them to go up by $2 million. Congratulations on that. Your guy missed the entire training camp so you get another $2 million. Verjao's back, which could probably be for about 10 games, but still.

For at least 15 games, absolutely. Della Dova is back. Congratulations. Kevin Love is back. So here's my quick Kevin Love speech. It scares me a little bit when guys in the NBA have bad shoulder injuries. Just having played basketball for my whole life and just how many times your arm gets yanked, your shoulder gets yanked, whatever.

It's just, I'm not saying he's not coming back. It just worries me. Perkins started hurting his shoulders when he was in the Celtics and it ruined his career. And I feel the same way about Durant with the broken feet. We just pencil these guys back in like they're going to be exactly the same as they were, and those are significant injuries. You break your foot, three foot surgeries, that's a real injury.

I kind of want to see it for 25 games. I kind of want to see Kevin Love playing with his surgically repaired shoulder. Am I too crazy? Feet and shoulder are two different things. I kind of want to see it for 25 games. I kind of want to see Kevin Love playing with his surgically repaired shoulder, you know? Am I too crazy? Feet and shoulder are two different things. I would not lump foot injuries in with shoulder injuries, and especially for the kind of player that Love is. It really was a freak accident that he was close enough to the basket to get tangled up going for a rebound,

notwithstanding his prolific rebounding numbers. I think he's going to be fine. I like he's 27. So, you know, I haven't done any research into any of the reports describing his road back and how his shoulder has been performing and all that kind of thing. But I'm not concerned about Love's shoulder injury. I'm a tiny bit concerned. I think he goes back 100%. I'm always concerned about Love's shoulder injury. I'm a tiny bit concerned. I think he goes back 100%. I'm always concerned.

Okay. I went under because of the injuries, because LeBron is now in year 13. Yeah. 4-0-5-0-6. Yeah, year 13. Here's the thing. What is it going to take to get the one seed in the East? Like 52 wins?

How about this? They don't need the one seed. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. But, like, why would they have to put the foot in the pedal? They could get the one seed and go 52-30. I don't see any reason for them to go balls out and try to win 60 games. The only question for us is whether or not to make this an under lock.

I'm not betting against LeBron. You're not going to do that? I don't feel good about that. I mean, you just described it. They have no reason. The only thing for them, the only goal, the regular season serves one purpose for them, and that is to be healthy entering the playoffs. It's for them to get a few reps.

They have 82 opportunities to get a few reps with a few different lineups. Honest to God, if LeBron plays, they need to be perpetrating a full-on Spurs-style rest schedule for LeBron. I hope he only plays 65 games this year because I want him to be in perfect health entering the playoffs. So I think they can win 55 games just messing around with the talent they have and the nucleus that's coming back. But, you know, the only reason for them to do anything

is a slight kind of playoff positioning. And I guess the only team in the East, other than the Miami Heat with Carmelo Anthony, for them to avoid would be the Chicago Bulls. But even then, I think we're kind of past the point where the Bulls represent such a formidable threat. So I like them in the under category. You gave a lock to the Celtics over.

I'm giving a lock to the Cavs under. I just talked myself into it. I might join you, but I'm going to think about it some more. But here's an interesting stat for you, Joe House. Miami went 54-28 in LeBron's last season, right? Yeah. Cleveland went 53-29 last year. They did.

LeBron missed 13 games. So those are two straight years where he was in the low to mid-50s with LeBron playing like LeBron. I don't know. I think he gets the regular season now. He's just trying to get through the regular season. He understands that the two playoff months are what matter and are going to take a huge physical toll to get through the regular season. He understands that the two playoff months are what matter and are going to

take a huge physical toll on him and the whole thing. And he has a ton of cruise control games, especially the first couple months. Lock, lock, lock, lock. Come on. When does Kyrie come back? When does Kyrie come back, Tate? Tate was just picking his nose.

Could be weeks. TBD, could be weeks TBD could be weeks alright I'll join you I'm in yeah alright lock Bulls

that's not a knock on the Cavs by the way Cavs still I believe in them we're gonna have the same conversation when we get to the Spurs regular season playoffs

are two different events and teams approach them differently I still if the Cavs didn't make the finals I would be stunned. Stunned.

Again, 52-30 probably wins the East, so just remember that. Bulls over 50. New coach, Fred Hoiberg. They added Bobby Portis, who actually I liked in the preseason. He seemed like a good rebounder. I'm going to look at some odds for him as Rookie of the Year. Don't think that I'm not. He's got that Marquise Daniels

kind of the eyes that you just don't know what he's up to at all times. Remember Marquise Daniels? Mysterious. Shady eyes. It's got an edge to him. It's got an edge to him. I like it. They lost Thibodeau. They lost Nazi Muhammad. Bye, Nazi.

Take care. Doesn't feel like a loss. Derrick Rose didn't really have a great offseason. He fractured his orbital bone. Yeah, he fractured his orbital bone. He said some really crazy, stupid stuff about his next contract that seemed kind of threatening and not appreciative of the fact that he'd been paid a ton of money to not really do that much the last couple years.

Was involved in an off-season sexual assault. Yeah, unfortunate. Story that's ongoing and did not, you know, whatever the facts are, did not serve him well, I don't think. Jimmy Butler and him had a little tension. Then they didn't. Then they kind of did. I think that's all overblown.

All right. Well, we are at a point like whose team is it, though? That's not overblown. That's an Well, we are at a point like whose team is it, though? That's not overblown. That's an NBA storyline that's been there for 100 years. So Noah, free agent after this year, might be breaking down physically. Coming off the bench. Not starting. Pals back.

Doug McDermott. Meritage. Taj Gibson, who's probably going to be more unhappy than he was last year, Mike Dunleavy, back surgery, he's out for a couple months. I just don't like the team, and I think Thibodeau got them to overachieve year after year after year. The over-unders 50 feels like a 46 and 36 to me. What do you think?

I like them closer to 50 50 i like them either right on 50 or at 49 but i'm not going to talk myself into 51 or 52 they're they're they're in a fragile place right now yeah and we don't have any sense whatsoever of what the difference between tibbs and hoiberg is going to look like but you know um on, on the run-up to this season, it just feels like it's a transition kind of deal for them. And really the whole offense comes down to Aaron Brooks, ultimately. That's, you know, because... Because you're just saying Rose is going to get hurt?

Yeah, I am saying that. It is now beyond a question. He can't play the sustained minutes. We know that he can't play at star level, let alone superstar level. He will win them a couple games. They have redundancies at positions that I don't like. I'm not sure Gasol and Noah should play together. I'm not sure Miritich and McDermott should play together.

You know? Well, you're asking Fred Hoiberger in his first stint as an NBA head coach to figure that out. Yeah. I mean, congratulations for figuring out Royce White for a year, but this is much harder. And I don't know. I don't feel good about this Bulls team.

I don't feel good about anything that I'm looking at. Now, the catch could be Butler could just go up another level and become one of the best 15 players in the league, or they trade for Carmelo in mid-December. Butler did it for 30 games. We have to see Butler do it for 60 games. 65 games. He just couldn't do it. I'm going under also. Not a lock, but under. The Milwaukee Bucks

have gotten a lot of bandwagon buzz. Their over-under is ridiculous. It's 44 and a half. Well, it's only ridiculous in the sense that we're immediately putting them in the same kind of conversation as Toronto and Washington. They did win 41 games last year,

so you're only asking them to win four more games this year than last year to get the over. Too much buzz. It always makes me nervous when teams that haven't done anything yet are getting blown. We just saw this with the Colts. The Colts were a Super Bowl contender. They hadn't done anything yet are getting blown. We just saw this with the Colts. The Colts were a Super Bowl contender. They hadn't done anything.

The Dolphins were going to win the AFCs. They hadn't done anything. I hate handing things to teams that haven't proven or earned anything yet. This is a 500 team. To me, the over-under should be 41. And if they go over that, congratulations. That's very disrespectful to Greg Monroe. You don't think Greg Monroe is going to make any kind of a difference for this team?

When we get Jabari Parker, it's like they have two guys. I don't know. He stinks defensively. Two signings. Doesn't it matter that Greg Monroe stinks defensively? Doesn't it matter that they have no rim protection at all? Doesn't it matter that they don't have outside shooting? I'm just being devil's advocate because I want the Bucs to be good. I like the Bucs.

I'm excited for Giannis. Well, they were incredible defensively last year. They were on the perimeter. They were good defensively. But, you know, they're long. I get the case. They're long. The shooting worries me.

I worry about Jabari coming right off an ACI. Everybody's just penciling back in Jabari. Oh, Jabari's back. That's a two-year injury. It's always been a two-year injury. They can ease him in. They have a little bit of depth. I do like John Henson.

And I think what's going to be interesting to me, because they spent all this money on Monroe. And FYI, hold on. Let's have a podcast about some of our favorite Greg Monroe playoff games. And it's over. And it's over. And it's over. Thanks for coming to the Greg Monroe Top 20 Playoff Game Classic.

So, I don't know. I worry about the expectations. I worry about the shooting. I worry about what happens if they're better off with Henson playing and Monroe sitting and he's unhappy. Well, you and I are going to. Prove it to me. We're going to be on the other side of this.

I'm taking the over. Last year I took a hate under because they were my team two years ago, and I was ready for them to go do all kinds of great things two years ago, and they stunk. And then I, just out of spite, went against them last year. And now I've come back around. I'm on them. I like them at 45 games, and I'm taking the over. I think you jumped the gun on me.

What? I'm taking the over. I just went all devil's advocate. My point is I think the over-under is too high, but I think they're a 45-win team. Great. Not a lock? I think in the West they're a 35-win team. I like them around 500 in the West.

Eh, 35 wins. No, definitely not a lock, but 45 and 37 feels right. Just because they have depth. It comes down to this. Are they four wins better than they were last year? Yeah, I think so. We both agree on that point. Plus, they pick up some of those wins that we think some of these mediocre. Cleveland, Chicago wins that are out there

I would not make it a lock, I think it's too high I have concerns about this team and it makes me nervous that everybody is blowing them but 45 wins seems I just have them down 45-37 so it's too close to the overrunner but whatever Indiana, the over is 42

this team transformed itself I think as much as anybody did this year. They basically decided to throw away big ball and they went back to small ball. Or not back to small ball, but they want to play Paul George at the four. They brought Monte Ellis in. Their centers now are going to be Jordan Hill and Miles Turner, basically. They lost David West. They lost Hibbert.

They lost Scola. Those were this era of the Eastern Conference when they were trying to beat Miami by just being bigger and tougher than them and they almost did and they had a nice little three-year run there until George broke his leg so oh and Jan Mahimny is also going to be involved at center they're relying on a variety of things that make me nervous but frank vogel's a good coach paul george is going to be good again they went they won 38 games last year is paul george and a small ball style and getting rid of roy hibbert worth five wins like yeah probably the east is worse it is me. This is a house over.

This is out of respect, primarily for Vogel, but also I can put myself back in that place where Paul George was ruling the world. It wasn't that long ago. Was it 18 months ago? Less than that. He was so good. He was right there in top three or four player in the league that category and i you know i'm hopeful i'm optimistic that he returns resumes that form and so i like a slight over for the pacers here okay i like a slight over we're on a bad pace so let's go to the pistonsons. 34 and a half over. They basically turned Greg Monroe into Irian Ilusova, and they're going to be a little smaller.

They unclogged the lane. Marcus Morris is involved now. Stanley Johnson, people like a lot as a rookie. Steve Van Gundy turned down four first-round picks from Boston for him. Just thought I'd mention that. Andre German, a free agent a year from now. He'll test it. I just thought I'd mention that. Andre Drummond, a free agent a year from now. He'll test it.

I think he's restricted. He's the guy now. The over-under is 34 and a half. Brandon Jennings, not positive when he's going to come back from the Achilles, but it should be when he's going to look like Brandon Jennings again, but he's kind of an X factor.

Feels like a mid-30s kind of team. The over was 34.5. A slight shade of the over. What do you think? The exact same point of view. I think this is the first kind of iteration of a team that fits the SVGI. This is a Stan Van Gundy. You know, the Reggie Jackson, Andre Drummond, uh, pick and roll.

It's kind of the, the poor man, um, Jameer Nelson, Dwight Howard from, from the SVG days. So you're saying this is an oh nine magic type of template. That's it. That's it. It'll, it'll, it's over on the perimeter of the way Turka, Turka glue was. Um, so I, I like them. No PDs. Well, who knows? or the way turkaglue was. With the PEDs or no? No PEDs? Well, who knows?

It's always a possibility. It wasn't his fault. He didn't realize what he was taking. He was just in the room at the wrong time. Yeah. So are we both doing slide over? I have a slide over. Over 34 and a half.

Yeah, we're both taking a slide over on that one. All right. Let's, before we get to the Southeast Division, a new sponsor. House. If you need legal help, you shouldn't have to choose some random lawyer who charges expensive hourly rates.

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This is, first of all, your team's in this conference. Yeah, I have some things to say. Yeah, this is a wild card conference. It's just like throwing a chainsaw in a hot tub. Atlanta. There are three very good teams in it. Yeah. Atlanta is 49 and a half over.

They lost to Mara Carroll. They have Seth Filosha back from a broken leg, suing the NYPD as he should. They added Tiago Splitter, which I really liked. That dude's been there. That's a guy that gives them a little extra wrinkle. They can play him and Horford together maybe. It gives them a backup. I just like that move. and Horford together maybe. It gives them a backup.

I just like that move. It was a gaping hole in the playoffs. They filled a gaping hole, a gaping deficiency that they found themselves with come playoff time. I like it. And with all that said, I'm going under 49.5. Wow. Wow. It's so disrespectful to Buds.

Yeah, it is. I really love the over here. 49 and a half. Wow. Wow. It's so disrespectful to buds. Yeah, it is. I, I, um, really love the over here. Why are they 11 games worse than last year? I don't know. So you, you,

you, you have them at what? 49 and, uh, 48 and 34, 48 and 34. I just feel like they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they just feel like they they the core identity that got them to 60 wins they don't have they're a team that needs to play hard during the regular season and will play hard

during the regular season because of the style that makes them successful all that ball movement stuff you can't just you know they don't have individual players that need to take games off or need to take minutes, have reduced minutes. I mean, it's important for Horford to stay healthy all season long, but I think they're going to come out and play their system, and nobody could stop it until playoff time. And if that's their system, that's a system that looks successful enough to me to be 54-55 wins. I worry about Perimeter D. I think Carroll was really, really, really, really important for them.

I worry about Teague versus Schrader, Dennis Schrader, who I think is ready to get more minutes, and how do you accommodate that? Teague's coming off a great year. Korver's older than you think he is. And I thought really started to wear down in the playoffs.

How old is he? Huh? How old is he? I think he's like, Tate, find this out. What is he, like 34, 35? That's what I would have guessed. He's 34. That's old.

That's old for a white shooting guard who relies on, you know, that one-fourth of a step to get open and to get looks and all that stuff. Millsap got paid. I worry about that, too. I don't like when guys get paid. I mean, that's not enough for me. I like Sepulosha and Bazemore filling that Carroll spot. And I just believe in the system.

I believe in Buds. That's all. It's fine. I'm not, I'm not, I'm not making it a lock. I just feel like they, I think they were a 53 win team last year that just won 60 because of their conference. And because they were playing well and because they had a style that people just hadn't totally figured out yet. And then what happened in the playoffs, I think teams are going to look at that. There's some tricks that the Cavs did.

I forget what the Bucs did. Somebody played them this series before. It was Washington. Washington. They should have beaten them. Washington should have beaten them. I don't know. Wall got hurt.

They had a lot of things go right for them last year until the cops decided to break Seth Filosz's leg. But, I don't know. It just doesn't feel like, is this team really going to win 115 wins in two years? I just don't see it.

So, I'm going under. I respectfully disagree. I just have them at 50. 50 to 51 wins me the hard green cash, the hard-earned green cash. Okay, good. Make it a lock. Double down on it. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Absolutely not.

Miami Heat. I haven't. Here's the other thing. Miami's better this year. 45 and a half. Last year they went 37 they have a full year of Dragic

Dwayne Wade signed a one year 20 million dollar deal Whiteside's back he missed the whole second half of the season or most of it uh

Chris Bosh is back he missed the whole second half of the season Dang's back they added Justice Winslow who god damn he's in a perfect situation

you couldn't pick a better team oh great I go to Miami I get to learn from Justice Winslow, who, God damn, he's in a perfect situation. You couldn't pick a better team. Oh, great, I go to Miami. I get to learn from a bunch of veterans. I don't have a ton of pressure. I can come off the bench and go against the other team's second team. I can grow up my own pace. I can be a defensive stopper.

There's no better team he could have gone to. They added Gerald Green, who, as long as Zach Lowe pointed this out, as long as they don't play him and stoudemire for big stretches at the same time could actually help as a as an irrational confidence guy and mick roberts is back and mick roberts was good two years ago in charlotte and could do stuff and he's a good passer and he knows where to go and what to do and i like the team 45 45.5 is the over, under. Even though Zach made one point in his piece about Dragic's style versus the way some of these other guys play in Miami. It got me thinking, is this a team that's a better fantasy team than a real team?

I don't think that. I don't think that either I don't think that either. I love Miami this year. I absolutely adore them. I think Dragic and Bosh are going to make sweet pick and pop music love together. Yeah. Well, here's the other thing. Pick and pop love?

Yeah. When Wade disappears, you know he's going to. He's going to miss 10 games or he won't be able to play back to back, whatever. They're actually stocked this year. All right. Hey, Gerald Green, go shoot. Hey, Winslow, you're going to play 35 minutes tonight. They have options if Wade's not there. They don't have to lean on him like they did last year. And Bosh is one of the best 20 players in the league and he missed last year. There's no way they're not eight wins better. Something really weird would have to happen.

I like them so much. They're absolutely positively a lock to me. And you already heard my case for them going out and getting Mellow into this mix. I'm making them a lock as well. Nice. I think they got 46 and 36 minimum. The Wizards, 45 and a half. Inexplicable. Last year they were 46 and 36.

They lost Pierce. They gained Jared Dudley. He doesn't come back for a couple weeks. They added Gary Neal. But more importantly, Otto Porter might actually be good and might have actually learned some stuff from Paul Pierce and might actually be an X factor for this team. Not to mention all the Bradley Beal playoff progress,

which made everyone so happy. John Wall is somewhere between a star and a superstar. And the conference got a little bit worse. To me, this is the team out of all the teams in the 40s that could make a little bit of a leap into the 50s, possibly. I like the over. 45 and a half. I'm making it a lock, Joe House. Wow.

Well, I love this Wizards team this year as well. I'm going to just call them the Wizards. I'm fine with it this year. I really hate seeing Pepe go. The leadership that he brought, and I've said it many, many times over, was just incalculable. You told me, and then he delivered in the playoff run, that he really delivered for them was incomparable. I like to think that they're going to build on all of the progress that they made with Pierce

as kind of the helm of that playoff ship and the confidence that Wall and Beal acquired. But you mentioned it most importantly, Otto Porter. Paul Pierce may have saved his career. It's still the case that Beal and Wall are super young. Brad Beal is 22 years old right now. That's amazing. Need him to play close to 70 games for them to make this work. Nene's in a contract year.

We've seen Nene in a contract year before. Now we're on the downside of Nene's career, let there be no doubt. But when Nene's motivated and they have enough depth now to hopefully put him in the right spot. Tom Haberstroh called Randy Whitman enigmatic, and I have to agree, enigmatic Randy Whitman. If the minutes are right for these guys, we have the rotations pretty well set. Alan Anderson is here also.

There's a lot of good role guys. Gary Neal, Dudley, Anderson, those are professionals. And they're all complimentary. Yeah, even Gary Neal. Those are guys that have actually done stuff in important NBA games at a moment or two. Washington's already a top five defensive team in the league. And the real improvement, the big, you know, earth-shattering, groundbreaking

improvement is they all are saying they're going to take less mid-range twos. The worst shot in basketball, they're going to take less of them this year. I'm right along with you. Let's lock down the Washington Wizards. So they won 46, Miami won 37, and Atlanta won 60. That's 142 wins between those three, I think. I hope I added that right. So if you recalibrate just those three teams,

and Miami's up now to 48, they've gained nine wins. Washington goes from 46 to like 51 range. That's another five. Right there, Atlanta loses seven, eight wins. I know. And they still hit the over. Yeah, somebody's going to email me and say. That's why it took the over.

No, but somebody's going to email and say, oh, you're mad. That's stupid. The cause and effect, whatever. I'm just saying like the calibration of when I try to figure out the records. I just moved some of Atlanta's wins to Washington and Miami. And then I moved a couple more of Atlanta's wins to Boston. And, you know, that's how... Did you give any of Atlanta's wins to the Knicks?

No, maybe one. Okay. I don't know. It's like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. There's only so many wins in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta took a lot of them last year for a lot of reasons that had nothing to do with how good they were. And I'm just recalibrating that.

And 60 wins is hard to diminish. Listen, you're never talking me out of my Atlanta under after what happened with the Jets-Dolphins game. The Orlando Magic. Sure. Their over is 33. Last year 25 and 57.

They've added the rookie of the year Mario Hazonia. They lost Moe Harkless to Portland. I like Moe Harkless but more importantly they lost Jacques Vaughn

who I thought was the worst coach in the league. They replaced him with with Michael Chiklis. Portland. I like Mohawkos. But more importantly, they lost Jacques Vaughn, who I thought was the worst coach in the league. They replaced him with Michael Chiklis. I think it's worth they got Alfred Payton second year, Oladipo third year, Vucevic, Tobias Harris got paid, Aaron Gordon in his second

year is like an off-the-bench guy, CJ Watson, Channing Frye, Evan Fournier. They have Shabazz Napier on this team. And then has Zonya. I don't know. It just feels like kind of what the Bucs were last year, right? This up-and-coming team that we're like, Oh, my God.

Zorlano, they might make the playoffs. Holy mackerel. And I could see them winning like 38, 39. I'm going over. This one is giving me a lot of trouble. All I can think about when I watch, when I think about Orlando is how poorly they shoot from outside.

They're middle of the pack from three-point percentage and middle of the pack field goal percentage, 14 out of 30. And the 14 out of 30 on field goal percentage is all Vucevic, who is one of four players to average nearly a 20-10 last year. The backcourt, Payton and Oladipo have to shoot better. They have to shoot better for this team to win 38 or 39 or 40 games. Yeah, but why wouldn't you say the same about Milwaukee? Milwaukee's a slightly more accomplished.

You know, O.J. Mayo comes off the bench for them. I think they have another decent three-point shooter on that team. I like that you just stammered for 10 seconds. Well, because I don't have their roster in front of me, but I don't think that they have the same kind of offensive, sluggish kind of problems as Orlando on the perimeter. Okay. Well, I disagree. You know what? I might change my mind with Milwaukee.

I feel like we should just – we needed more conflict in this podcast and a couple more teams that we disagreed on. I like that we disagree on Atlanta. I think I'm going to go under with Milwaukee. I think I'm going to say they're going to go 43-39. I'm going to give some of their wins to Orlando. I'm giving Orlando two of Milwaukee's wins. Going under for Milwaukee.

You're taking the over on Orlando and the under on. Now, the thing that goes against my under is Scott's golf effect. I mean, he immediately comes in and helps teams win 10 more games than they did the previous year. He's been doing it over and over and over. Well, last year, like they basically had,

you know, the equipment managers, the head coach. It's like Bob, the equipment manager is coaching the team this year. They actually have a coach. He's going to be like, Hey,

I have some ideas. Hey, here's some plays. Hey, I have a halftime adjustment for you. I think it's going to matter next and last team. One of my locks. ideas. Hey, here's some plays. Hey, I have a halftime adjustment for you. I think it's going to matter. Next and last team.

One of my locks. The Hornets of Charlotte. They gave Michael Kidd-Grochrest $52 million for four years. Tours right labrum. Probably out for the whole year. They added Nick Batum, which I really liked. They added Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky, and Tyler Hansborough.

Hey, white people of Charlotte, come on down. We have white guys. Their starting lineup. Cody Zeller. Just about ready to give up on him. What do you think? Very close. We're right there on that.

Very close. About to pack his suitcase. Batum, who was just an atrocity last year and hopefully would change the scenery up. Al Jefferson lost 20 pounds from not eating chicken anymore. Kemba Walker. And their starting two guard house, Jeremy Lamb. That's a problem. That is a prob-lum.

Never seen anything out of Jeremy Lamb that makes me think he belongs in the NBA. Their bench is Kaminsky, Marvin Williams, Jeremy Lamb, and 17 white guys. They're over under, inexplicably, for reasons I can't fathom, is 32 and a half. And I actually thought it was a typo. I thought it was 22.5 and that Tate typed it wrong. And I looked it up, and no, it actually was 32.5. Lock. Under. There's no way this team wins 33 wins.

No way. There's a 0% chance. No way. None. Zero. That's how many. That's how much. Now, look, MKG missed 30 games last year.

Jefferson missed 20 games last year. Cody Zeller missed 20 games last year, and they won 33. So you're saying you don't believe in what Batum, Kaminsky. I need more white guys. If there are three more white guys, I might go over. But right now, they didn't add enough white guys. Like if you, like if there are three more white guys that might go over, but right now they didn't add enough white guys, unfortunately. So I'm going under.

Yeah, I will, uh, under, under, under, under. By the way,

you talk about outside shooting. You're worried about Orlando's outside shooting. Where do you see this rock show that's going to happen? They were 30th in the league. They were 30th in the league last year. They should call their arena the quarry from all the rocks that are going to be thrown around. Come down to the quarry and see the Hornets. We got white guys.

All right. I'm on it. 31. It feels disrespectful to Steve Clifford, who just two years ago had them beat. You know, they were the buzz team. They were the up and comers. Yeah, but he was terrible last year. Well, did you hear all those games? 30, 20, 20 out of the three of their most important players. Jeremy Lamb is their starting two guard.

I am taking the under. That is enough. And now, here are your Charlotte Hornets. At guard, Kimball Walker. At guard, one of the guys who ruined the Harden trade

and made it one of the worst trades of all time. It's Jeremy Lim. Here he is. Wow. Oh, and Al Jefferson. I'm going to call Kaminsky and Lin.

Al Jefferson lost 20 pounds. Al Jefferson stopped eating chicken Come on down What a terrible team And I hate them for not trading against Justice Winslow Which is part of my animosity This is a spite pick It's a total spite pick I'm spiting the hell out of them with my lock

I'm taking the under with you Alright, let's recap our Eastern Conference picks So we have I'm taking the under with you. All right, let's recap our Eastern Conference picks. So we have the Toronto Raptors over 46. We both agree on that. Yeah. And hopefully Kyle Lowry won't get hurt. We had the Boston Celtics over 43.5.

I had that as a lock. Do you have that as a lock? I feel like I should join you. We should be in lockstep on all locks. So I'll get in on that with you. All right. The Knicks, I have over 30. You have?

What do you have over? I have the Knicks. We agree on over. Just be good at 31. Right. 31 and 51. Let's go Knicks. Brooklyn Nets under 28.

I'm going to throw a lockdown on that. I don't remember if I did or not, but. Brooklyn Nets under 28. I'm going to throw a lock down on that. I don't remember if I did or not, but, God, that team stinks. I'm not joining you on that lock. Okay. But you have the under. Philly. Actually, I have the over. I have the over for Brooklyn.

I have them at 29 wins. We're going to lose that one. I don't think I had Brooklyn as a lock. I have too much at stake with them. I'm going to remove my lock. Philly, I have under 21 and a half for Philly, and you have? Under as well. Not a lock, but both under.

Cleveland, we both have under 57 and a half. Out of respect for the king, we decided not to make that a lock. Oh, I talked you into a lock on that under. Oh, out of respect for the king, we did make that a lock. Oh, I talked you into a lock on that under. Oh, out of respect for the King, we did make that a lock. Out of respect for the King, you should play 62 games. Out of respect for the King, it's a two-month season, LeBron. Just try to get through the regular season. That's it.

Under 50 for the Bulls. We both have that. We are in agreement. We're going to disagree on the Bucs. You have over 44 and a half. I have under 44 and a half. It's a fact. Indianapolis, we have over 42 apiece.

Detroit, we have over 34 and a half apiece. Atlanta, I have under 49 and a half and you have over. And it was a big disagreement that caused some tension in our friendship. Miami Heat. We'll try and sort it out. Over 45 and a half each. Lock. Lock. Double lock.

Lock, lock, lock. The Wizards. Over 45 and a half. Lock, lock. Lock, lock, lock. My two favorites are the Celtics and the Wizards. How about that? Our two favorite teams.

Orlando, over 33. I have over. You have... Under. Under. Okay, we can screen that. And then Charlotte, I have over. You have under. I did under. And then Charlotte, I have a lock, 32 and a half under. Although I do have the over for 32 and a half white guys in the Charlotte roster this season. So I took that, but I took under for wins. We're both taking the under.

And that's it. I'm going to remove my lock from Brooklyn. I have too much at stake. Yeah, I already erased it. House, do you realize that the Celtics could have one of the top three picks in the draft from Brooklyn and also have a pick between 8, 9, and 10 from Dallas if Dallas falls apart? All I know is if Ben Simmons going to Boston becomes a reality,

I feel like we should fly out there with, you know, we should get somebody who makes ice as a sponsor to come out and ice you down if Ben Simmons, you know, going to Boston becomes a thing. All right, we went long

as we thought we would. And that means we're going to have to tape the Western Conference on Monday or Tuesday. I am available all day monday yeah there is no time i can't do it tuesday i'm available all the way up until we'll do it on monday we'll tape it on monday uh joe house a pleasure as always um but before we go don't forget my podcast listeners can use promo code BS for the SeatGeek app and get a $20 rebate off your first SeatGeek purchase. You count as a podcast listener. I swear, you count as a podcast listener. You listen to this right now. So you should do this.

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promo code BS. And don't forget about the fight on HBO, 9.30pm Saturday night the next Floyd Mayweather maybe who knows check that out

thanks to everybody enjoy the weekend thanks to Joe House thanks to Tate for doing all the research awesome Tate and we'll be back on Monday

with more until then