The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 131: 'Friday Rollin' With Mike Lombardi and Joe House

Episode Date: October 7, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons brings on front office guru Mike Lombardi to discuss the stable Vikings (5:00), the hopeless Colts (10:00), Carson Palmer reverting to his mean (13:00), the most talented underachieving teams (23:00), and course-correcting the Sixers' process (31:00). Then, Joe House jumps on the line to help make his top-3 picks for Week 5 (39:00), discuss the NBA MVP odds loopholes (49:30), and run through the over-unders and expectations in the Eastern Conference (55:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of Friday Rollin' is brought to you by SeatGeek, our presenting sponsor and the only fan-friendly app for buying and selling tickets for sports and music. There's a lot of sports this month, basketball, hockey, baseball, NFL, college football. You need SeatGeek. Drop your old ticket app, use one bill for 2016, buy tickets and enter stadiums on your phone. Download the free SeatGeek app or go to SeatGeek.com. Today's episode also brought to you by Stamps.com our old buddy

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click on the microphone at the top of their homepage. Type in BS. Don't forget about any given Wednesday. That's my HBO show. Every Wednesday night, 10 p.m., we had Michael Rapaport, Doug Baldwin, and Joel McHale this week. Really enjoyed this one. It re-airs on HBO, HBO2, HBO Go, and HBO On Demand for great reads in sports, pop culture, tech, and politics.

I hope you're checking out TheRinger.com where I unveiled my idea for the All the Right Moves remake on TV this week. You'll have to find that one. And also don't forget about The Ringer Podcast Network. Nine podcasts in all in The Ringer Podcast Network, including Ringer University, brand new college basketball, and college football with new host Chris Vernon, among others. All right. We have Lombardi in the house coming up.

Let's go oh it's back we have Tupac for like three more weeks we're gonna enjoy every second of them two house cleaning notes before we get to Lombardi before Sunday night's presidential debate John Favreau and the Keeping It 1600 guys are doing live pregame and postgame shows, not only on Facebook Live, but on Twitter. Oh, yeah. We're putting them head-to-head.

Follow us at facebook.com slash ringer or twitter.com slash ringer and you can watch those pregame and postgame shows live. The last one was a huge success. This one's going to even be better. Sunday night, before and after the presidential debate. And also on Saturday night, October 15th in Boston, Massachusetts.

My beloved Boston, Massachusetts. Jimmy Kimmel and I are doing a live show at the Schubert Theater that night. Think of it like a fancy podcast. All proceeds will benefit Harvard scholars at risk. We love that program. We love Jane Unruh. And we wanted to help raise money and awareness for that program.

There are still a few tickets available. Go to citycenter.org, C-I-T-I, center.org, or call 866-348-9738. Me and Jimmy, live show, October 15th, Saturday night. This will probably never happen again. So there we go. All right, let's call Lombardi. All right, as promised, from FS1 and Fox, you can check them out on Sundays on the Fox 11 a.m. show

and also on a bunch of FS1 shows. FS1, doing well right now. Skip Bayless has rejuvenated FS1. Mike Lombardi, how are you? I'm great, thank you. How are you, Bill? I'm doing good. I got killed last week in my picks, but I knew that was coming

because it just felt like one of those weird, we don't know what the hell is going on in the league weeks. I have a better feel for this week. I want to throw a couple teams at you and see what your reactions were. First of all, the Vikings are kind of the ultimate Lombardi team, right? They get the lead. They take care of business. They do their job.

It's a little Belichickian. What are your feelings on them? I think it's very Belichickian. I think what you see with them is the classic Parcells-type team where they don't lose. They avoid losing. And I think you have to give Norv Turner credit here for his ability to call plays. He knows he's not going to be a head coach again,

so he's not trying to interject his personality and tell everybody, oh, look how great the offense is. They punt when they have to punt. They make plays when they have to make plays. They take advantage of the situations. And I think they're playing complementary football in all three phases. They're hard to play. And the unsung thing that they do extremely well is they rush the passer

with the kind of rush that keeps the quarterback in front of the defensive line and it makes it hard for the quarterback to step up. They control quarterbacks with their pass rush as much as their coverage. And you know what's interesting about them? We should come up with a name for this team because there's one every year. There's the team where you go, yeah, if they get the lead, they're great.

But what happens if they play from behind? And every week they have the lead. And at some point they're just, they end up being 13-3 or 14-2 and you're still waiting for them to play from behind. Isn't that one, that's this year's version of that team, right? Yeah, because they don't mind punting,

and because they don't mind punting, the game never gets away from them. New Orleans minds punting. They know when they punt, they're down 7-0. Atlanta minds punting. Now, they haven't had a punt, but their defense hasn't been on the field as much. So there are certain teams that mind punting, and when you mind punting, then you become a problem team. And I think when you see what you see out of Minnesota is they'll play field position with you all day long, they'll control it, and you have to make plays on a

consistent, but you get 12 possessions in a game. Can you make three really good possessions and score 21 points, especially as good as they are in the red area? I doubt it. Broncos and Vikings, the best two defenses right now. Is there anybody else even close to those two? I think Seattle's really good on defense. You know, Seattle came back, everybody says, oh, they're playing at 10 o'clock in the morning, it's going to be a hard game. You know, that stat about going east to west, you know, when you lump in the bad teams in that stat, stat is clearly, if you're a good team, you can play at any time of the day you want to play.

You're going to play good. The 49ers, I think Bill Walsh, during the time he was in San Francisco, he had a better win percentage on the road than every other team in the NFL did at home. So if you're a good team, you can play on the road. And I think Seattle's a really good defense. I think they've played much better defense the first month of the season. Their offense shocked

me last week in their ability to move the ball against the Jets. So I think Seattle belongs in the conversation. Yeah, and I was shocked by how well Wilson moved. I mean, I picked against the Seahawks solely because I just thought Jets D-line, shaky Seahawks offensive line, Wilson can't move. And now it's like you can just get quarterbacks ready again in two days.

It doesn't matter what their injuries are. It's amazing. In the old days, he would have been out six weeks. Yeah, he would have put with a heavy brace, couldn't move around. I thought he was going to have to play the whole game and shotgun and never hand it off and throw quick pass. And he did really remarkably well against the good defense. But the Jets, the Jets season is on the line in Pittsburgh because they're a good team and they can't create turnovers and they give the ball away, which is not a recipe to be described as a good team. But that's what they do.

And they're going to lose their season if they keep playing that way, and this is the season in Pittsburgh. So it sounds like you have a top five, Broncos, Steelers. I know you still love the Steelers. The Pats, the Vikings, and the Seahawks. Would that be your top tier right now? Yeah, and I don't have the – to me, I call those the 60-minute teams. Those teams, you've got to beat them for 60 minutes.

You're going to have to play them, and they're not out of the game no matter what the score for 60 minutes. Philadelphia is not quite in that group. Philadelphia, to me, is a 55-minute team. Yeah, let's do that because we were texting about this. Let's do the different minutes. So you have five 60-minute teams. What are the Packers?

Do they have a 50-minute team? I have the Packers as a 55-minute teams. What are the Packers? Do they have a 50-minute team? I'll have the Packers as a 55-minute team. Explain what that means, though, because it's really nuanced. Let's start backwards. The 45-minute teams are the teams that can play good for three-quarters. Cleveland, they're in those games. Everybody said they're going to give the Redskins a tough game, and that's right, they going to give the Redskins a tough game, and that's right, they are.

But they can give them a tough game for three quarters. They're a 45-minute team. So I'm not a gambler, but when you look at the line, you think, oh, God, they're going to play them close because they can play 45 minutes. You've got to calculate the last 15 minutes of the game where they don't play as well. To me, Tampa's another team like that. Chicago, Detroit.

I mean, Miami has the ball 11 minutes in the first half on an average. Can you imagine that? They get the ball almost a little more than 50% in the first half. They can play probably good for three quarters. Now, it might be the last three quarters and not the first quarter, but they can't play well enough. So I have Miami, I have Jacksonville, I have Indianapolis, and I have San Francisco in that category.

And those are all cross-offs for the season, right? Have we given up on Indianapolis? I don't see them. I mean, Indianapolis, I don't see how they're going to recover from this. I mean, there's no strength you can build on. What are they going to build on? Their offensive line, their defensive line? You know, they go away to Jacksonville, they go away to London, and you can never get control of the

game. That's why they're a 45-minute team, because they never can control the game. They can steal a win here and there, but they can't control the game. Then the next category is 50 minutes, where they'll get the game into the fourth quarter, and it's going to come really close. Like, that would be San Diego. Right. Okay? New Orleans, because of their offense, can do it. Tennessee, just because they just milk the clock.

They're not good enough, Tennessee, but they play a lot of close games. Yeah. You know? Buffalo. Washington's terrible on defense, really good on offense. They can play into the fourth quarter with you. Now, you're going to have to beat them, but they could give you the game easily. Houston, Arizona, Carolina, the Jets, the Giants, and Kansas City.

To me, those are 50-minute teams. Carolina gives up 48 points to Atlanta, and I can't decide if we're going to look back and think that was the single flukiest game of the season or we're going to look back and be like that was the week we should have realized Atlanta was good and Carolina's garbage this year where do you stand on this I stand that Atlanta's a little better dressed up than New Orleans okay that's really all it is Atlanta doesn't want to punt because if Atlanta punts that defense is on the field now where

they've done a great job is their number one in the league in big plays. They have more big plays. I think they have 24 big plays, which are 20-yard passes or runs or more. But they're also 31st in the league in allowing you to have big plays. So that cycle is eventually going to catch up. That's why they're, to me, that's why they're in this category. They're like a 55-minute team because they can't really play good enough defense for the entire game. Eventually, it's because the dam's going to break.

If they turn it over, if they miss field goals, it's going to be really a problem for them. So Atlanta, to me, is last year they started out 4-0. They didn't make the playoffs. This year they started out 4-0. We're 3-1. Let's see what they do. To me, the liability is their defense. They can't make the playoffs. This year they started out 4-0. We're 3-1. Let's see what they do. To me, the liability is their defense. They can't win with their defensive line. And

they're going to play teams. They have Denver this week. They have Seattle next week that can match up to them. And I think that will be the challenge. I don't want to talk about Arizona too much because we're taping this on a Thursday in their games that night. But I did want to ask you, Carson Palmer, even before he got hurt and got the concussion, all the signs were pointing to him having, you know, one of those years like Jake DeLome had the year after the six interception game where you have the traumatic playoff game, you're coming off a career season, you're banged up. It's unlikely that this whole chain of events is going to happen again. And that's what we saw before that concussion. Are you writing him off? Where would you stand on Palmer?

I did a lot of research on Palmer this week because you've been raising the question, you saw something in him, and everybody's not sure what's wrong with Palmer, but they know something's wrong. And the answer is simply this. Palmer is reverted back to who Palmer is. Last year was the aberration. Look at the numbers. The numbers were so clear above his standard of excellence. I mean, significantly. Like a baseball player who averages 18 home runs and all of a sudden hits 45. Or the three-point shooter who shoots 30% during the season and ends up at 45. He had a career year. Palmer had a career year. That's the reality. What you're seeing in Carson Palmer is the same. Go back and listen to old podcasts, and you talked about him. We talked about him. Yeah, it's true. It's the exact same it's good. He's a good player, but he's reverting to the mean. He's not, he's not, that last year isn't the mean. It's the aversion to the mean. And so he's reverting back. And that's the problem. We're all looking at him as if he's that. And really what he is, is the list history. Like if he was a baseball player, his baseball

card, you would look at it and say, wow, 15 was an abnormal year for him. He was really good. Yeah. And unfortunately, I know we don't know what's going to happen tonight. And by the time people listen to this, they're going to know. Part of me wonders if him not playing for a week is going to be better for them in the long run because they had this team built around big plays and Palmer being a gunslinger and all this stuff. And maybe their team should be built around David Johnson and, you know, and the running game they have and just trying to move the ball and control the clock.

I don't know. I guess we'll find out tonight. I think when I was in Oakland, we had Kerry Collins. We were 1-3 after the first month of September. Kerry Collins had the highest rated quarterback, based on the NFL.com quarterback rating. He was like over 100. Typically, he was always in the 80s. And I said, if he's at this and we're one in three,

we've got to fix other areas because he's not going to keep playing at this level. And I think that's what the Cardinals have to do. And I think what the Cardinals misjudged themselves a little bit was thinking that they could build off of Carson Palmer's season, that that was who he is, when in reality that was an exception. All right, we're going to play a game. I don't have a better title for this yet, but we're going to call it Fake GM. You are a real GM, so you're the perfect person to play this with.

Let's say you're running, I don't know, one of the eight teams that has a quarterback that needs a quarterback. Let's say you're running uh i don't know who really needs maybe the bears cutler's out for the year whatever and miami calls you and says we want to dump tannahill third round pick you can have them right now and the salary cap stuff isn't that bad would you roll the dice with tannahill for a third round pick no because here's my rule as a gm playing fake gm and real gm My rule is this. I never want to trade for a player or sign a player and the next day say, you know, we really need to get a

better player. I never want to do that. I don't want to sign a guard and the next day say, you know, we really need a guard. Like, that's not the business we're in. We're in to solve the problem. Now, we have to be tactical, and I understand the whole theory of getting a little bit better at first, which Al Davis completely disagreed with violently about just incremental improvements. The reality of it is when I trade for Ryan Tannehill, I still need a quarterback. So why would I?

All right. You're the GM of the Niners. Regardless of the price. The price doesn't matter. You're the GM of the Niners. The Titans come to you and they say, Mariotta's kind of regressing and we don't have

the right team around him. I don't trust our coaching staff. I'm not saying we have buyer's remorse, but let's just say if you gave us your first this year and a second next year that could turn into a first if you guys win 10 games, we'd be interested in maybe moving him for Kaepernick and the picks.

What would you do? I'm making that deal. I think what you see with Mariota, you certainly see a slip in his production this year from last year. He actually had a better rookie season than he has a sophomore season. But the team around him, they have no receivers that can separate. It's not a conducive team for his skill set in terms of the players surrounding him. This is what I truly believe, Bill. Quarterbacks are like baseball stadiums. You have to build the team. In baseball, they

build a team around the stadium. Quarterbacks are the same way. You better build your team around a quarterback on on his on his talent skill set now that doesn't apply to a guy like ryan tannehill because if i'm building around tannehill i'm not going to be good enough anyway but if you get a elite quarterback which i think mariotto is then you build his skill set around that all right you're you're running the rams the colts come to you. Colts say, Luck's going to get killed. Like, we can't put a good team around him.

We're actually interested in talking about a trade with you about Goff, and we want just a ton of picks. But we'll do this. We're ready to do this, and you can have Andrew Luck. What's the price? Well, you know, I mean, I think that's going to be really steep when you go look at the draft choices because Luck's entering the prime of his career. So you're talking

to probably, you know, at least more than any Lawrence Welk one, two, and a three trade. Right. So it would be significant. The problem with football is it's too hard to trade. In basketball, you just have to fit the contracts under. But in football, because you have all these guaranteed bonus and all this stuff,

and it's like you just can't flip people around. I obviously don't think the Colts would make a trade. But the Rams, it would be really interesting if they used Goff as some sort of – if they thought, wow, we might actually have a chance to be a Super Bowl contender. We should use Goff, even though we just gave up all these picks for him, to try to leverage him in a better quarterback. But that quarterback doesn't exist. What would you give up for Cutler?

I wouldn't give up anything for Cutler, because if culture matters to me, bringing Cutler into my culture would really affect me. So to me, I've got to find somebody else. I think the Bears are better with Brian Hoyer. I mean, Brian Hoyer is 16 and 15 in his career as a starter, going back to his time in Cleveland, his time in Houston. Look, I don't think he's perfect, but I think he can't. You know, you're not going to win a Super Bowl with Brian Hoyer playing quarterback,

but you're certainly not going to hurt your culture of your football team and look like you have a quarterback who's disinterested in the game. I mean, you know, you're trying to build something. Like, that's my problem with Chicago. I don't know what they're trying to build. Like, I don't know where they're going. They got rid of their players, Forte, Bennett, and they kept Cutler. What are they actually trying to build?

Is there a team that's underachieved so far that when you watch the talent that the team has, you think to yourself, wow. Like, I was watching the Jags-Colts game, and the Jags, you know, they're a mess. And I don't like Bortles, and I certainly don't think they have a chance to win 10 games or anything. But, man, they had a lot of dudes on defense that were doing stuff. And that was the first time I watched them and thought to myself, there's something here.

I don't know what's here, but there's something here. Did you feel that way watching that game? I thought Jacksonville's got some players. I don't know cohesively if they play like a team. I think the other team like that is Oakland. I think Oakland defensively, I know they're 3-1, but Oakland is like really underachieved on defense. Like Oakland had no business beating Baltimore.

You look at the stat sheet, 13 penalties, horrible on third down. They've made enough plays to win the game, but you're not going to consistently beat teams. That that's why they're in that 55 minute club because yeah they're not going to consistently beat teams like that so i think jacksonville's probably a little more talented i think the jets are more talented than one and three understanding that fitzpatrick and the quarterback it just shows you how bad the geno smith and all those other quarterbacks are because they can't ever get to Geno Smith as bad as Fitzpatrick's playing. There's no player who's yelling for Geno to come on the field.

So that's got to tell you something right there. Tennessee's next five. They're at Miami. Now, I don't know what's going to happen with that game because we had this terrible hurricane coming, but they're going to play that game somewhere. Then they have three at home, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville, which they have a chance to be favored in all three of those games. And then at San Diego.

Now you could argue that all of those games not only are winnable, but if I had to pick, I might pick them in all five of those games. Is there a chance that Tennessee could do something in the AFC South? I know they have terrible receivers. Go. not only are winnable, but if I had to pick, I might pick them in all five of those games. Is there a chance that Tennessee could do something in the NFC South? I know they have terrible receivers. Go. They have a chance because they play the game. They only score 15 points a night. They're 31st in the league in how many points they can score. So how many teams can you beat?

Even when you play bad teams, if you average 15 points, you're not going to beat them. So they're always going to be in close games. They're always going to be down to that last-second field goal. Some they'll win, some they'll lose. So I don't think you could ever look at the upcoming opponents when you're the Tennessee Titans and start penciling in Ws. So that being said, I think they're solid on defense.

They play hard. DeMarco Murray, to me, looks like he's as good a back as he was with Dallas. I agree. They just have no skill around them. Yeah. And to me, the object of the game is to score points, and the Titans don't score points. All right, let's talk about the Pats.

Something weird happened last week. Everyone thought Jimmy was playing and that he didn't play, and it almost looked like they weren't ready. Or maybe they thought the defense was going to win the game or who the hell knows. But it was just a weird game, weird vibe coming out of it. Do you see just, you know, now Brady's back, do we throw that one away or should I take something from it?

Well, I think it's time now. They've got 12 games defensively to step up. I think the concern you have as a Patriot fan is defensively, where are we? We're one field goal away from being 2-2. We're sitting there saying, we're 3-1, everything's great. No, a kid missed a field goal, we could have been 2-2. We played a horrible second half against Miami. We couldn't cover the Bills receivers, whether it's Robert Woods, Walter Powell. It didn't matter. Charles Clay couldn't tackle LaShawn McCoy. You know, the defense needs to play better. Now, it'll be masked by the offense because Brady will score points, they'll get the lead, and they'll do their things. But at the time when it's going to matter against Pittsburgh or against Denver, the good teams, that defense has got to take a mother may eye step forward. And if they don't, then that's going to be the downfall of the Patriots this season if their defense doesn't play well. Right now, they're not playing near the level that they need to play to be able to be considered

a team that could go into Denver and win or go into Pittsburgh and win. Everyone always says September. It's hard to judge because there's so many young players. Everybody's just too many guys that haven't been coached enough yet. There's not enough practice time, all that stuff. Is there a team that has just a batch of young players that has really impressed you?

I think Oakland has a bunch of good young players that they've impressed me. I think they've got a lot of guys that seem like they can do it. Philadelphia's a young team. Really, when you look at Philly, they're a young team that moves around really well. I'm trying to think what other... Jacksonville

has got a lot of young players on their team. Pittsburgh's defense is fairly young, but what you don't want to be is the Colts, where you have seven guys over 30-year-old on your defense. That's what you don't want to be. And you're terrible. And be bad. Yeah, that's what you don't want to be. So, you know, people say, look, September is just kind of jockey.

I get it. But last year, I mean, besides Kansas City and Houston was 1-3, they made the playoffs. And Atlanta was 4-0 and didn't make the playoffs. Pretty much it's, you know, when you're good in September, you're probably, there's one or two teams that may not be good or may have overachieved in September, but there's a sense of, I would say there's a core of eight teams that you know in September are good

that are going to be good in November and December. Which team would you bet on to kind of come on here now that we're in October, KC or Cincinnati? I think Kansas City is always a problem. I think because they just play a style that's almost boring. You know, they are the Woody Hayes offense, even though they spread you out. There are three plays to get a first down every time. And they don't mind it.

They enjoy it. They enjoy a good 15-play drive and kick a field goal. They relish in it. I think their defense, you know, if they can get Justin Houston back, I think that will be a giant bump in their arm. I just never trust Cincinnati because I do think Dalton is the perfect example, the 2020 quarterback. I think he'll move the ball.

They haven't really run the ball effectively. I think their offensive line, and one of the reasons why Dalton has been sacked so much is because the line hasn't played nearly as well. And defensively, their corner situation is really not very good. They've kind of masked it a little bit here, but they haven't been healthy in the secondary. Until they get healthy in the secondary, that's going to be a challenge.

Who do you have as the wild cards right now? If you assume like Pats, Texans, Steelers, and Denver as the division champs, who would be your two AFC wild cards? I think Kansas City is going to wear down. I don't think Oakland can handle the volume. I think Oakland's walked out of Baltimore fortunate that they were able to do it. If Pittsburgh wins it, I think it will come down to Cincinnati and Baltimore in the north.

I think Kansas City will be the other one in the west. I don't think we'll be blessed to get two teams out of the south. So you're not buying Buffalo at all? We wrote them off after they lost two games in five days and then they won two in a row, nothing? No, I mean, look, it's a nice story. Buffalo, water will seek its level with Buffalo. They will be 7-9, 6-10 before this is all over with.

They're not going to be good enough to play. They're not going to be good enough to play. Bella is dying to get on the podcast. They're not going to be good enough to play. Your dogs. Bella's been dying to get on the podcast. Bella's been dying to get on the podcast. It's killed her that she hasn't made an appearance. But anyway, Buffalo is not going to be just good enough. I mean, Tyron Taylor, they scored 16 points against the Patriots.

The Patriots were willing to give them 30. And I said on the podcast they couldn't score 30 against Aaron. Everybody was giving me a hard time. But the way they played, I just don't see it. I think they'll have a hard time playing the Rams. Buffalo's going to be in every game. The Arizona team was, to me, the last couple games they've been fortunate. And I just don't think they're talented enough. Yeah, Buffalo scored in the first drive and then put up a whopping nine the rest of the game against a team that couldn't throw the ball at all, couldn't do anything.

Right. And then, you know, even against Arizona, they blocked a punt. I mean, they were doing some good things, but you think Buffalo's going to handle success? I think the more you talk up Buffalo, the better chance they have to fall down. True. Last question. The Rams, 3-1 without a quarterback, good defense.

Schedules really helped them. But they did beat Seattle at home. They did hold Seattle to three points. Should we be looking them at all? On the hottest day of the year in Los Angeles. The water was $40 a bottle. I don't know. I think the Rams will find a way to.

I just don't see how you're going to keep sustaining this level. You're just not going to do it. You could do it in September, but it's going to get harder in November to win like this. Trust me. It's hard to win in November and December. You're not going to win like this. And I think Arizona will correct themselves once they figure it out. And I don't think San Francisco has enough depth or talent.

But the Rams don't have any talent on offense. They're always going to keep you in the game. They're always going to keep you in the game. They're always going to keep you in the game with their offense. So you think the Rams and Bills are both going to lose when they play each other this week? It's going to be the first ever double loss? I think both teams will try to lose. I think one will come out a winner.

I think Buffalo coming off that win against New England will have a hard time maintaining their level of concentration, but that's just me. Yeah, you love the immature team coming off a big win, having a stumble the following week is one of your favorites. Yeah, absolutely. I think, and then you travel across the country and you're focused. Hey, when you think you're good, that's when it's worse.

Whereas like New England, nothing could have been better for Belichick than to lose to Buffalo at home. Right. It's the perfect opportunity for him to readjust his team and say, forget Brady coming in here. We need to tackle better. We need to block better. We need to cover better. Here's why.

That's why the theme out of New England all week was, forget about Brady coming back. This is what we're going to do. And he can get their attention. It's really difficult when you're a young team to get their attention. And that's where I think Oakland's been a little fortunate because they've kind of found ways to win some games and they're going to find ways to lose some of those games in November. I forgot, I had one more question for you. You're the master, you're the guru of finding the random four-string running

back who had like three carries in some game and he jumped out at you and then you just file it away and then much later the guy ends up being good. Is there anybody like that this year so far? I think it's the Richards kid in Oakland. I think he's really the kid from southern Mississippi. He's really a good back. They got him and they signed him as a college free agent, and I think he's a really good back.

I think Dwayne Washington, the seventh-round pick out of the University of Washington, is a really good back. He's playing because of Riddick's injury. I think he's got a chance to be a really good player. And then Kenneth Dixon, who's been hurt. Louisiana Tech's fourth-round pick for Baltimore. Baltimore has no running game. I think Kenneth Dixon will come in and really shine.

But those three guys, to me, jump off to me. I think they have really unique skills. There's a time where Dwayne Washington up in Detroit, he's not Marcus Allen, so I don't want to hear anybody pick it, but he's got a little Marcus Allen run style to him. He can run, he's slinky, catches the ball really well. It's unfortunate that Detroit's offense isn't really playing very well, but I think he's got a chance to really emerge. I wonder if he's hung like Marcus Allen. Marcus Allen, a legend. This I don't know.

This is an area I'm not an expert to. All right, you have 38 seconds to talk about Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Well, I mean, it goes back to Doug Collins. Every time we have the first pick over on the draft, the guy loses, I guess, hurting his foot. I think we won't see Simmons until next season. I mean, everybody says it's not that bad. Come on.

Basketball players, I mean, the 76ers injury report looks worse than any football team. They got Okafor still out with a meniscus from last year. I mean, like, really? What do they do? Does anybody rehab? Oh, I got a bad wrist. I can't play tonight. I mean, I would go crazy in the NBA. Like, these minor injuries? Oh, I got a bad wrist. I can't play tonight. I mean, I would go crazy in the NBA.

Like, these minor injuries, guys are out. It's, like, unbelievable. Football players, are you kidding me? So I think we'll be in the lottery again. There's no doubt we'll be in the lottery. I wonder if the process is really going to go all the way through year four where they're just going to toss away another season. They have all these big guys.

You can't play five centers. Of course they are. And everybody talks all trust the process. Yeah, the process got us five centers. How's that working out for us? Everybody says, you know, Henke's plan has been magnificent. How's that work out for us? We don't even have a team. We have a collection of players. The object is to

build a team, not collect players. And then we can't turn any of those players into assets. Well, trust the process. I've trusted the process. I've got 19 centers. I mean, who's going to play? Nobody can dribble a ball up the court. It's ridiculous.

It proves one thing, Bill. If you ever tell people what your plan is, no matter how bad it is, they'll buy into it. This is a lesson to learn for everybody. Because their plan doesn't work. Nobody's giving them a hard time. I just saw the kid from Milwaukee sign an extension. We could have drafted that kid from Milwaukee.

We could have drafted the kid that Knicks have. Nobody says that's part of the process, though. That is true. They were trying to build basically a team that could finish in the top three of the lottery every year while taking chances and big swings on prospects, and they didn't take Giannis or Porzingis.

Pretty interesting. They're talking out of both sides of their mouth. You add those two players to the 76ers team right now, now let's have a different conversation. But I trusted the process. I don't have those two guys. I do like Sarge, and I do like Embiid. And I actually think Noel on the right team could be good. And I actually like Okafor.

I don't mind the players. The problem they're in now is that they can't play all of them at the same time, and everyone else in the league knows that they have to trade at least two of those guys. And I'm not even counting Simmons because he's out. And it's like you're going to be able to steal Okafor pretty soon for $0.55 in the dollar. That's going to happen. That's how this is going he's out. And it's like, you're going to be able to steal Okafor pretty soon for 55 cents in the dollar. That's going to happen. That's how this is going to play out.

We could have drafted Porzingis. Is that his name? We could have drafted him. You could have traded down and you could have taken like Devin Booker 10 spots later or eight spots later. There's a lot of stuff you could have done. If you're interested in building a team. But see, we were interested in collecting assets.

So now we have all these assets. We have all these cars on the lot. And we're not going to be able to sell any of these cars at full value because everybody knows we're trying to sell them. Right. So I've trusted the process, and here's what I've got. Right. And that's why the process is defensible in a lot of ways. But the part that nobody factors in is what do you do when you're collecting assets when all of a sudden those assets don't make sense as a collection of assets?

Now what? Your job as an executive is to build a team. It isn't to collect assets. We're not in the hedge fund business. We're not looking to add to our portfolio. We're trying to build a championship-level team. We can turn those assets in. I mean, Jerry West will tell you it's fool's gold. That's his exact quote.

It's all fool's gold. And it's the truth. Mike Lombardi, a pleasure as always. I'm sorry about Ben Simmons. The injury resonated deep in my Simmons family. I hope the little young man Ben Simmons is doing as well as anyone. That's the most important Ben Simmons right there. He had just gotten a jersey and a t-shirt

jersey and a snapback hat, and now there's no Ben Simmons. You can blame it on me. Just blame it on me. It's my fault. All right. We'll talk to you next week. Thanks. Thanks, Bill. Bye-bye. We're going to call House

to do the Callaway Par 3. And then we're also going to do Eastern Conference NBA Over-Unders just for fun. But let's talk first about Sonos. It's the smart speaker system that streams all your favorite music to any room or every room. Control your music with one simple app on your phone or iPad or any other device. You can fill your home with pure immersive sound. Sonos brings your music together in one simple app. It's all your favorite music services. You can even play

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because it was my one-year anniversary with MeUndies. We launched this podcast a year ago. They sponsored the first one. They sent me a big box of comfortable underwear. I've been wearing them ever since. I actually have like two favorite MeUndies. They sent me a bunch,

but there's like two. I always rank the underwears like they're starters and they're starting rotation. And I wore Bum Gardener two days ago for the Any Given Wednesday taping. And it was a shutout.

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And I triple bogeyed last week. I had the plus three. I think I went 0 for 3. I'm pretty sure I went 0 for 3. Did I go 0 for 3? I did go 0 for 3. What did you go? You went 0 for 3.

I went 1 and 2. So I went, I had a birdie, a bogey, and another bogey, so I am now plus four on the season. God, this is embarrassing. What is your... So... Yeah. We're both over par. Stinkers.

It's awful. So we're going to race through the Callaway Par 3, and as a present to you guys, since we were screwing up our NFL picks, we're going to do Eastern Conference NBA over-unders. We're going to do that after this. I will say I did not like week three NFL and I did not like week four NFL. I do like week five, and I'm excited for week five. But first, tell them about the Callaway Irons house. The XR Steelhead Irons, the brand-new XR technology on the old-school

Steelhead design platform, they're awesome. The number one irons in golf. That's what Callaway delivers. These XR steelheads are beautiful, fast, and technologically superior. Okay, great. Great. All right. Callaway, part three, your first pick, go. I'm taking the New York Jets. I've seen seven and seven and a half at Pittsburgh. This is one of my old school contrarian plays. We have not been doing very well lately, so I felt like I needed to go a little old school with some of my angles. The Steelers won huge last week, as we know.

So right out of the box, the public slams the Steelers as soon as the line comes out. There's over 80% of the public on the Steelers. The Jets lost and did not cover. It's a conference game. The Steelers, 0-6, little nugget. 0-6 against the spread in games where they are

coming off of scoring 40 or more, and the team that they're up against has lost two in a row. 0-6 against the spread. My big takeaway here, Ryan Fitzpatrick cannot keep throwing games away. Nine interceptions in two games. Is he going to throw this one away too? I hope not.

There you go. Jets. Jets. So I have that at 7.5. Okay. Wonderful. Congratulations. I have the Raiders laying 3 and a half to San Diego. I think the line is too low.

I think the Chargers keep blowing these games, and it's having a real effect on them. I think the Chargers are banged up. I think the Raiders are actually more talented than they've shown in some of these games that they've had to gut out. We just had Lombardi on. He was talking about how much he liked the two running backs that are replacing Latavius Murray, who I've never been a fan of.

And I just think the Raiders are ready to bust out and win a game convincingly and pound their chest because they're 4-1 and I'm ready for a week of Derek Carr stories. I think this is the week we really start seriously talking about the Raiders. That's interesting. I like the Chargers

in that one. That's not one of my picks. The Raiders don't have a strong history of cover. I know. That's fine. They don't like being favored. You know what else they don't have a strong history of? Going west to east and winning 1 p.m. games. So I believe in the possibilities of this Raiders team.

All right, your second pick. Okay. I'm taking the Denver Broncos laying six at home against Atlanta. This is mainly a play against Atlanta. I feel like they haven't played anything like a defense that the Bronx are going to throw at them. Every team, in fact, that the Falcons have faced so far are in the bottom half of the league in sacks. I think the Broncos are going to sack the Daylights out of Matty Ice. I think he's going to be looking for and feeling pressure all over. The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks and have 41 quarterback hits

through the first four games of the season. The next closest in terms of quarterback hits, there are three teams at 27. So nobody's really even close to the Broncos in terms of quarterback hits, there are three teams at 27. So nobody's really even close to the Broncos in terms of mounting pressure. Matty Ice does not like pressure. And I also have one little nugget that I like. This is a silly one. Defending Super Bowl champions at home in game five are 5-0 against the spread if they enter that week 5, 4-0. That describes the Denver Broncos. They're my pick, minus 6 against Atlanta.

That's just absurd. I don't even know how to react to that. Man, there's a lot of games I like that were like minus 3.5 and minus 4, which always scares me off. I like the Ravens against your team, but and minus four, which always scares me off. Like I like the Ravens against your team, but it's four and the four scares me. And I know Kirk Cousins will give me a, you like that garbage ton touchdown. I'm just, I'm staying away from that for, for my second game. I have, um, I don't know where this game is being played, but the Titans are playing the Dolphins,

and they're getting three and a half points. And my rule is when I just think I'm getting a free field goal, basically I'm just taking it, and I'm taking the Titans plus three and a half because I actually just think they're better than Miami. I don't think Miami's a good football team. It's weird. I keep talking myself into this Titans team,

even though they've let me down a couple times. I think they're solid. They stay in games. It just seems like too many points, so I'm taking that. All right, your third pick. I totally agree with that Titans pick. I almost put them in this. You mentioned the Deadskins and the Ravens.

Of course I'm taking the Ravens. It's at four. I had them at three and a half. Four is fine as well. We have now incontrovertible proof that the Deadskins win games when those games are handed to them on a silver platter. They have not yet gone out and taken a game. I don't think they're going to Baltimore and taking this game.

The Browns were let me remind everyone leading the dead skins going into the fourth quarter twenty to seventeen and then turn the ball over three consecutive times yeah they're thereby ending their day they were the dead skins were out yarded by the browns in that game and the same thing was true of the giants the previous week eli handed that game to And the same thing was true of the Giants the previous week. Eli handed that game to the Deadskins. The Deadskins have not given out, have not gone and taken one. I feel like the line here is low.

I think on a power ranking basis, and we now have, it's a small sample size, but enough of an indication of how teams should be ranked that the Ravens, on a neutral field are a three and a half to four point favorite. And then as a home team should be six and a half point favorite. I feel like I'm getting some extra value out of the Ravens here. So I'm taking the Ravens minus four, let's say, against my dead skins. Okay. I really want to take the Pats minus 11 against the Browns, but I'm not going to.

I also really wanted to take the Rams minus two over the Bills, but I can't pick Case Keenum, especially after a triple bogey last week. And I really, really, really want to take the Bears plus four and a half in Indianapolis because I think Indianapolis is just flat out atrocious but I can't name three Chicago scope position guys at this point I literally can't I know Brian Hoyer's involved Jeffrey's involved Jeremy Lankford's out I don't even know who their fifth string running back is I'm just staying away from that. So I'm taking Cincinnati minus one in Dallas because I don't think Dallas is very good.

I think it's a deceiving three and one. They lost to the Giants. They beat your Deadskins on a terrible Kirk Cousins pass. Yeah, the Deadskins gifted that game to Dallas. Yes. They, the Deadskins gifted that game to Dallas. Yes. They killed the Bears, and then they squeaked it out over just an atrocious Niners team. And I don't know. I just think Cincinnati, I don't think they're a Super Bowl contender, but I think they're

a good team that does everything pretty well and can stay in the game. And I don't think they've really played a good road game yet where they can just, I don't know, I just like Cincinnati. I don't believe in Dallas. So that's it. That's my third pick. I love that pick. Thank you.

I made a big play on it in a different forum that I'm not at liberty to discuss here. Okay. I like this week, and I'm going to be teasing, three-team teasing the Pats with somebody. I just don't know. All right. So we're going to do NBA overrunners. But first, I want to talk about our friends at Squarespace, who make it easy to build beautiful websites without breaking a sweat,

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Squarespace.com. Use offer code BS and you get 10% off your first purchase. And check out, what's your Squarespace website? HouseFromDC.com? HouseFromDC.com, of course. Have you been posting any pictures? Anybody who needs a food recommendation, if you're coming to the DMV and need a food recommendation,

I've got them all up there. It's probably due for an update. I've been to a few places since I posted that, but there are probably 25 different restaurants from a whole variety, walks of life, housefromdc.com, under House Recommends. And yes, there are many pictures of delicious food items on that website. All right. What's your number one D.C. restaurant right now?

It's a place called Kinship. It's kind of a new American thing by a guy who used to cook for a restaurant called City Zen, which was in the Mandarin Hotel here in D.C. He opened up his own shop in the Shaw neighborhood. That was too long of an answer. It's too long of an answer. Okay, sorry, Kinship. Kinship's my favorite right now.

Why haven't you been on Coronizer's podcast yet? He hasn't invited me. He's a dick. He's a cranky old dick. Do you think I would say no? No. I'm going to have Uncle Tony invite you because you should be on his podcast. Come on, Uncle Tony.

Quickly, before we get to the over-unders, I'm not allowed to bet on the MVP since I have a vote, but I think I'm allowed to actually over-unders. I'm not allowed to bet on the MVP since I have a vote, but I think I'm allowed to actually talk about the odds. And everybody is on this Westbrook MVP bandwagon because he's going to shoot 32 times a game and have a usage rate of 40, and they're going to go 42 and 40.

I'm not on that bandwagon. Me either. There's a guy whose odds are too skew. Can you guess who I'm not on that bandwagon. Me either. There's a guy whose odds are skew. Can you guess who I'm thinking? I haven't spent one second looking at it, but my guess— You know what I'll do? Hold on. I'm going to read you the top 12 guys.

Do not make a sound until I'm done. LeBron, 4-1. Westbrook, 4-1. Curry, 4-1. Durant, 8-1. Kawhi, 10-1. Anthony Davis, 15-1. Harden, 20-1.

Paul George, 30-1. Carl Anthony Towns, 35-1. Kyrie, 40-1. Blake, 50-1. Carmelo, 50-1. Chris Paul, 50-1. Now it's getting ridiculous. Okay. Any of those jump out to you?

There are three that I like. Two of which I would play, one I would not play. The three that I like, James Harden, Carl Anthony Towns, and Kawhi Leonard. Okay. I wouldn't play Kawhi Leonard. Okay. Now, you and I have not talked.

I would play Kawhi because 10 to 1 isn't enough value for me. But I love. Go ahead. No, you love him. I didn't look at this. Towns. This is like the newlywed game where you and I have not discussed this, and yet we ended up with the same answer.

The James Harden odds are way out of whack. 20 to 1 is ludicrous it's just ludicrous because he had the year from hell last year we're two coaches he had ty lawson on his team he had the chemistry was way off the whole year sucked he's dating chloe kardashian throw it away year before he was the number two MVP now he's got Dan Tony he's making him the point guard which basically is anyway uh he's going to be super motivated that four seed is wide open in the west and everybody's talking about Westbrook oh Westbrook oh it's oh my god it's like Harden's gonna have better stats than Westbrook and he's gonna have better percentages and he's gonna be on a better team and 20 to 1 is insane to me because the MVP is wide open the Golden State guys you can't vote

for any of them I think LeBron this is the year he cruise controls the regular season a little bit and I don't know I just think it's sitting there 20 to 1 is outrageous to me I can't believe those are the odds yeah I agree I I would yeah I would have reversed if't believe those are the odds. Yeah, I agree. I would have reversed. If you had just given the odds and names and said match these, I would have matched Kawhi Leonard up with 20-1 and put Harden down at 10-1.

But let some hang up and make a play on James Harden. No, I'm not allowed. Oh, you're not? I am! I have a vote. Yeah, I'm going to hang up and make a play. My job is just to point out which odds are out of whack. The only other one that I saw on here is Jalen Brown is a million to one, and I wouldn't roll that out because his two dunks are incredible.

You're such a – Jalen Brown. I mean, you're so asinine. My dad – The way you work a Celtics in every single time My dad and I were talking about the Celtics yesterday And my dad goes My dad's all in on Jalen Brown

Jalen Brown All Jalen Brown had to do was four dunks And one story about how Jalen Brown Jay Crowder's taking Jalen Brown under his wing Jalen Brown goes over to Jay Crowder's house Plays with Jay Crowder's kids He plays video games with them. And my dad is like, he's a good kid.

He's a good kid. He plays video games with Jay Crowder's kids. I'm like, what? You're in on the pick now because he plays video games with Jay Crowder's kids? What are you talking about? Poor Zingas is 101. Congratulations. Boogie Cousins. Good luck to the Knicks. Boogie Cousins, 51. Good luck to the Knicks

Boogie Cousins 50 to 1 Best of luck to the Knicks this season Yeah Alright We're gonna do Eastern Conference

You and I have not talked about this Right? Yeah you didn't give me any notice I had barely done any research so when I get all the

names wrong people can tweet about it and then I own it I'm gonna get the names wrong, people can tweet about it. And then I own it. I'm going to get the names wrong. No, we're not. We're not even going that far. This is a preliminary deep dive. Oh, that's a relief.

So we're going to get to do our usual over under with the proper research and everything. We're doing the East this week. We're doing the West next week. And then we'll do it for real the following week. I just want to get these out. We're going to dabble. It's appetizers. Right now I'm passing out shrimp cocktail and cocktail sauce.

Yeah. All right. I'll just do this alphabetical. Year of Atlanta. Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta's got Dwight Howard. Atlanta has an awesome FX show that is my favorite show in a while. I love that show.

Please tell me you're watching the Donald Glover show. I haven't had a chance to watch it yet. Oh my God, House. What's happened to you? You haven't watched the Donald Glover show yet? I haven't had a chance.

That's a crime. It's in the pipeline. That's like a crime against humanity. It's in the pipeline. That's a crime against humanity. Nobody would love that show more than you. Not one person I know. Except Rembrandt.

I'm only four episodes behind, right? No, there's been six. Oh, well, I'll get caught up. Tonight would be a good night. I'm going to watch them tonight. You're the same man.

I don't have to watch any of the boring baseball. Before you died and became just a domesticated husband, you're the same guy who 15, 14 years ago when Crazy Eyes Killer was on Curb, we had like an hour long phone call afterwards just to rehash like every second of that episode. And yet you're not watching Atlanta.

I can't handle it. I'll get there. I'm so upset about it. Can you watch it this weekend? The Ryder Cup's over. Stop watching golf. I'm going to watch three episodes tonight of Atlanta. How about that? No, watch

all of them. They're all excellent. It's the best show on TV right now. I can't watch all six tonight. I have to get to sleep. I have important things tomorrow. I have a round of golf. The Nats' first playoff game is tomorrow. Westworld, too. I started watching it and got distracted and then saved it.

Well, bang out Atlanta. But I'm not a sci-fi guy and I'm not a Western guy. It was cool. It was just weird and different, and I liked a lot of the actors. All right, Atlanta is 43 and a half. My preliminary take is I kind of like the over. Yeah, that's what I was thinking, too. Because I liked them at 44 to 45 wins. I'm in

on the one last great Dwight season before the wheels come off. And not even great. Just like an 18 and 12. He's never played with a point guard before is the thing I keep coming back to in my head. Maybe Dennis Schroeder isn't it. But it just feels like the

style will be good for him. Jared Jack. Oh, Jared Jack. I agree Jared Jack, Tate says. Tate wants to point out Dwight once played with Jared Jack. No, that's who he has now. He has Jack now. Oh. He has Jack and Schroeder. Jack's the backup now.

Jared Jack's like Achilles exploded like nine months ago. He'll be fine. Right, he can't be back yet already. Oh, Tate looks like he's kind of in on Atlanta. Oh, yeah. Tate's in on Atlanta. That's my number two in the East. Oh, stop it, Tate.

Yes. Well, let's get to the actual number two in the East, the Boston Celtics. 52 is the over. At 62, I would still bet this. At 72, I would think about it. 82, I wouldn't. I would not bet over 82 that's where you draw the line

82-0 that's it no chance where you take the Celtics this team's going to be really good and they're going to have some of the best chemistry we've ever seen and Al Horford Ortiz is retiring and the mantle is being passed to Al Horford as the greatest teammate, a humanitarian,

somebody who could take the whole city under, just an awesome guy. Every room he goes into, he just makes the room better. He heals animosity. The thing that's so hard to take is, because this is just a preliminary, we're going to have to do this all over again. I'm going to have to listen to this same grotesque hyperbole all over again. I agree that 52 is the number. I like the Celtics. It would be great for them. I'm excited to see them have a guy who might be able to score the ball inside of four minutes, make some hard baskets. Horford could and should be that guy. We'll see.

But 52 is a great number. I mean, 51 and a half is great. So 52 is a winner. And we both like the Celtics. We won 48 last year. Smart is going to be better. Rogier is actually going to be an asset, it looks like, off the bench. I can't believe it. I feel like I found $20 in my jeans.

Horford, huge upgrade. And then Jalen Brown, X factor. I don't know. I like the... I think the defense is going to be slightly better, which is saying something, because the defense was really good last year. One of the few teams that gave the Warriors a real test.

And Don't Sleep on Crowder was hurt the second half of the year. I think he'll be healthy. And Don't Sleep on Crowder's kids. They're amazing at Madden. Brooklyn. The Brooklyn over-under is 21 and a half and I kept looking at it thinking it said 11 and it actually didn't it keeps saying 21 and a half I I can't imagine how this team wins 22 games just on a Brooke Lopez Jeremy Lynn pick and roll my so my preliminary would be under am I missing anything anything? Like they added nobody. They have no first-round pick. They have no hope.

What is going on? Can't you stumble into 22 wins, though, in this league? I mean, they tried to last year. I mean, you could be really bad and still win 22 games. They tried last year. They had Thad Young and Lopez ruining my number one pick. I don't know. I would think they would want to go the other way and try to trade Lopez at some point, try to get anything for him and just completely blow it up.

But what do I know? What's the tank? I mean, they don't get anything for tanking. Well, I mean, I would argue it makes no sense at all to have Brook Lopez on this team. Like literally no sense. Zero sense. Because worst case scenario, he gets hurt. Best case scenario, he wins a couple games for you, but you have to trade him.

If he has any trade value at all, I would think you would want to trade him. It's not like you're building around it three years from now. They're going to win exactly 21 games, so we're both going to take the under on that. Charlotte's 40 and a half I have no opinion Give me an opinion on that one I'd say over Are you trading for Greg Monroe? You think we will?

Yeah I think you will actually MJ likes having those old school low post guys You're saying Kid Gilchrist To the Bucks and get Monroe No I think you get Monroe for a pack of donuts And a box of donuts And a pack of Marlboro Lights Better than Roy Hibbert

What did I miss Why are they so low Why are they so low Unclear That feels incredibly low Kemba's best season was last year Kemba came off a great year but batum got paid um they turned out jefferson and roy hibbert

kid go crest is killed go crest is uh his arm still isn't coming back from injury i know that i like the over i'm mystified by why it's so low. I like the over as a gentle over. 43. Why can't they win 43? I don't have an opinion yet, but I will in two weeks. Bulls is 40, and I don't have an opinion on that one either. But that team, I'm prepared for anything. I think that's our ceiling basement team this year.

You could talk me into 50 wins. You could talk me into 20. I don't know what to expect. I'm right there with you. It's a hard one. That might be the hardest one. What is that team? What the hell is going on? How many games is

D. Wade going to play? Let's set the over-under for how many games he's going to play first. It's a team out of like 1988. It's a team that you construct when the three-point line doesn't exist. Or that nobody uses it. And yet the hoops IQ of Rondo and Butler and Wade. Even Butler's really good at basketball.

I know. And Taj Gibson. These are all guys that know where to go and what to do. Meretic. All these guys know where to go and what to do, and that part is fascinating. And also Rondo, I'm just not ready to write him off yet. I thought he had good moments.

I thought that was a crazy situation he was in last year. He was on a crazy team with a team that hated its coach. They didn't play defense. I guess the X factor would be Fred Hoiberg who left me cold last year. They still won 42 games last year with Fred Hoiberg. That would seem like a worst-case scenario for them. Yeah. Cal was mailing it in.

Noah was hurt. Chicago or New York will be in the mid-40s, and I need to spend the next two weeks figuring out which one. Cleveland's at 57. I guess it depends on what LeBron season you're predicting. If it's, you know, they know that it doesn't matter what seed they have. It doesn't matter if they have home court. None of that matters.

What matters is LeBron being healthy in May and June. And my guess would be that he's going to be on cruise control and try to turn the team over to Kyrie and Kevin Love, who by all accounts looked awesome and is healthy again, and maybe just lets those guys and basically just becomes not a supporting guy but more of a facilitator, steps back, lets those guys sell their oats. He rests. Maybe he plays 65 games. It feels like we're headed toward that season

but i think we've learned never to count out him just being a maniac and trying to win the mvp yeah we don't know we made that mistake last season we did just describe the narrative that we thought was going to be the prevailing narrative last season and we both got got cleveland wrong yeah so i need a couple more weeks to study on that one. Detroit is off the board, I think, because Reggie Jackson is hurt and nobody can tell. Detroit is the NBA hipster community, and you know who you are. Everybody likes Detroit as, like, a real sleeper. Gallagher. Oh, Gallagher.

Jason Gallagher is in here, one of our ringer dudes who's done a lot of great stuff on the video side for us. He just did a fist pump. All the young hipsters, all the young kids are in on the Pistons. They want to watch Andre Drummond miss key playoffs and key free throws in a second-round game. I don't know what to make of that team. Indiana, can you guess the Indiana over-under? I'll be interested to see if you guess this.

They won 45 last year. I'll say 46. Yeah, 45. Oh, okay. That makes sense. It's a competent team. To me, they're the dark horse for the two seed. It's a competent team with a lot of veterans.

Yeah, they just have adults. It's a competent team with a lot of veterans. Yeah, they just have adults. It's an adult team. Right. Yep. Let's see. Miami's 35 and a half. That seems high. How are they

not off the board? I guess it's confirmed that Bosh is not going to play for them this year. Bosh will not play for them this year. That's done. Yeah, that's too high.

That's too high. So you're looking at Hassan Whiteside, Winslow and Richardson, a lot of dragage. Tyler Johnson. Yep. Some $50 million Tyler Johnson coming off the bench. Goodness gracious. Yeah. Amazing.

America's the best country on the planet. A whiff of Josh McRoberts. Just a whiff. Faint whiff. What's it smell like? What kind of whiff is that? It smells like David Salary Cap space. And I can't remember who else is on this team because I haven't done them.

Wade Hallington. Oh, Wade Hallington? Oh, man. That team's going under. Yeah, we like the under. We like the under. Well, Miami had a great run. They won a couple titles. They won in 06.

They won in 12. They pulled one out of the deep recesses of their assholes in 2013. And it was a great run. And I can't believe... They stole LeBron, for Christ's sake! And Pat Riley invited Dwayne Wade over to the room that was covered

in saran wrap when Dwayne Wade came in and shot him in the back of the head. That was unbelievable. I still haven't gottenan wrap when Dwayne Wade came in and shot him in the back of the head that was unbelievable I still haven't gotten over that Dwayne come on over I'm having a barbecue all right I'll be there at 3 15 done horrible but he saw something last year in that playoff series when he couldn't when Wade couldn't beat Toronto I think Pat Riley was like I'm done I'm rebuilding I got you know what I'm done. I'm rebuilding. I got Winslow. I got Whiteside. I'm going to stink this year. I'll get a top five pick

and I'll pull another franchise guy out of my butthole and we'll be good again in two years. So that was the calculus. He couldn't gamble on Bosh coming back. And if you don't have a good feeling about Bosh coming back, then there's no point in keeping Wade.

Right. Milwaukee. A sexy pick last year. I hate Milwaukee. I get them wrong every year. They were wearing a nightgown and lingerie last year. 36 for this year. 36?

Seems low. I feel low. Seems a little low. I'm going to research them. I get them wrong every year. The Knicks are 40 and a half. That's another ceiling-basement team. And who the hell knows what to expect with this Derrick Rose thing,

which I don't even want to talk about or approach or stare at for a second. Brandon Jennings is on this team, though, and I actually think he's going to be a real asset for them. Boy, they're going to need him to be an asset because Derrick Rose is the starting point guard right now. And poor Zingas is a second-year guy. And I love second-year guys. And if they do what I think they're going to do, which is probably play Joaquin Noah 26 to 28 minutes a game,

play him a little bit with Porzingis, but then play Porzingis at the five too. I want to see them play Porzingis at the five with Carmelo at the four is the lineup I want to see for the Knicks. I can't believe it. I think I might take the over for the Knicks. I think I like the Knicks. I like their team. I feel think I might take the over for the Knicks. I think I like the Knicks. I like their team. I feel like it's been 10 years.

I like it. I like their team. Phil Jackson, man. He knows what he's doing. I'm going to take the over on the Knicks. Jesus Christ. Somebody wake Phil Jackson up from his 4 p.m. nap and tell him I like his moves. Orlando.

Oh, I guess Orlando. How many did they win last year? 35. I bet they're at 37 would be my guess. Nice. That's what they are, 37. Oh, good. Yeah.

They do have the two Congo dudes, which I like. I like the Biambo-Abaka combo, but somehow they – I don't understand how anybody in the NBA can have a shitty point guard situation. It's like impossible. It's the biggest supply-demand position we have. We have 30 starting spots for a point guard, and we have like 75 qualified point guards,

and yet Orlando, it's like the weak part of their team. Why would you spend $9 million on DJ Augustine? What did Alfred Payton show you the last couple of years to make you think he could still start? And I was a huge fan of his. Nothing. He was terrible. He can't shoot.

Can't shoot. Can't, you can't play point guard and, and throw up bricks in 2017. Maybe Ricky Rubio will get that message this year. And I don't understand how you play Gordon, Abaka, and Vucevic, and Biambo together. Gordon's playing small forward now. Yeah, Tate said they have Gordon at small forward.

Guess what? That's a mistake. I don't like that at all. Who's their coach? Who's their coach, Tate? From Indiana. Oh, Vogel. Oh, Vogel. Oh, Vogel.

I forgot they had Vogel. See, this is why this is the unprepared over-under go-through. We need to do the research. I know, the Hazonia. You know, I saw Hazonia's when Rudy Fernandez was on that Spain Olympic team. Yeah. And I was thinking, remember how excited we were about Rudy Fernandez 10 years ago? And I think that's

we were also excited about Hazonia that's what I mean I'm worried that that's Hazonia's destiny it's just like this Spanish cock tease like Rudy Fernandez

he's gonna tease us and they're thinking this is the year and it never happens I'll tell you one thing though he's gonna have a lot of sex a lot of sex

in Orlando Orlando that dude good place for the sex I'll tell you one thing, though. He's going to have a lot of sex. A lot of sex in Orlando. Orlando. That dude. Good place for the sex. Do you want to guess Toronto? Well, let me look at that. No, don't look. Just guess.

The way they went, 47-48 last year? Yeah. I'm going to say 46.5 for Toronto. Slight downtick. 50. Like, what? 5-0. 50. Like, 5-0. 50. Why are they better?

Well, they added Sabonis. They just signed. They added, oh no, Oklahoma City got Sabonis. No, they had, they got the Purtle.

They got Jakob Purtle. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Jakob Purtle. Dead silence from house. Jakob Pertl. Dead silence from house. Jakob Pertl was the guy. He was the guy Sabonis destroyed in the NCAA tournament. So they got him. Yeah, is he going to get 10 minutes?

I don't care about Pertl. They lost Bionbo. They won 56 last year. So I disrespected Toronto. I forgot how successful they were. They were great at home. They only lost nine games at home last year. So 50 is fair. This is why we were being very careful

about pointing out that we haven't researched everything yet. I didn't realize Toronto won 56 either. I think I blacked out. I think I blacked out for the last seven wins. Jesus. I forgot. They were a game away from being the number one seed in the East.

I thought, Tate, didn't they add somebody? I thought they added one summer dude. They do something? Couldn't it have just been Jakob Pertl? Well, I mean, they had the re-sign. I mean, DeRozan. They just re-signed some dudes.

Yeah, I mean, then they had Jonas. Oh, Sullinger. They got Sullinger. Oh, they got Sullinger. I mean. Yeah, nice guy. I don't know what to say about that. I think they're worse.

That looks like an early under pick. Last but not least, the Wizards. What do you think they are? Yeah, my almost bullets. We actually teased this a little bit. Right when this stuff came out, you had, I think it was like 41 and a half or 42 or something. 42 and a half. Early returns on the almost bullets.

Oh, no. Zataransky. No. Backup point guard, 6'7". You should see the dunk clips. I already love them. I like it. Where is this guy?

What team was he on in the Olympics? Or somewhere? I've seen something from this guy and i got excited like czech republic i'm gonna mess it up i don't i don't know i haven't studied anybody either but his dunk clips are awesome i saw something of him and i got excited for you that'd be nice yeah um i hope that happens the uh the the i love obviously i going to take the over for the almost bullets. I think whatever the number is, Scotty Brooks is going to be a 2-3-5 game upgrade over Randy Vietman, the chess player, Randy Vietman, the famous chess player.

And I think the real key is always is Bradley Beal going to play 50 games. Huh? You just said Scott Brooks is going to play 50 games. Huh? You just said Scott Brooks is going to be an upgrade. Just wanted to remind you. Over Randy Whitman? Did you – I mean, hello, I watched 82 games of Randy Whitman in the last three seasons. Do you think that was fun?

No. Scottie Brooks is an upgrade over Randy Whitman. Sacramento calls you. November. November. Yes. The answer is yes. No, it's an offer you weren't expecting. Okay.

They're actually interested in getting John Waugh. Okay. They want to offer you... Oh, man, they don't have a lot to offer. They want to offer you the Rudy Gay expiring contract. Willie Colley Stein. This year's number one unprotected

in their 2019 number one unprotected for John Wall. No, no, no. No? I'm going to hang up the phone. Really? No, not even close. You're hanging up. The almost bullets are going to be in the playoffs.

Yeah, I'm hanging up. That's awful. That's an awful trade proposal. Okay. You're going to keep Juan and Bill together? Yeah, that we want to see them play. It would be great to have both of them for a full season and see what they're capable of. They were one

John Wall wrist injury away from playing in the Eastern Conference Finals two years ago. That would have been something. It's exciting. They're going to get back to the playoffs this year. The best Chocolate City basketball moment of the 2016- 2017 NBA season is going to be when the Cavs

visit the White House. I'm sorry. That's it. That's going to be the pinnacle. When all those dudes come in and Obama busts J.R. Smith's balls about how he's glad he wore a shirt and he does that whole thing. It's going to be the best. What's going to be better than that? David Blatt being denied at the gate. I'm sending you Sadoransky dunk clips once a week.

Every week you're getting a new Sadoransky dunk clip from me. You could have told me Sadoransky was the new hope of the Wizards or somebody who's working with Dan Steinberg on the D.C. sports bug. I would have believed anything you said. Could be a side gig. I have to tell you today I tweeted this. I'm not sure if you saw it. NBA History put a 55-second clip of the Bullets,

that Bullets team when Rasheed Wallace was a rookie and Chris Webber was on there. It really tore the heart out of me, watching those two. It was 55 seconds of those two playing together in a scrimmage. They were going up against one another. Oh, my God. Wow. Did you get a contact high?

It hurt my heart. No, I cried. I cried. I had to clean up the tears. Thanks to Sonos, the smart speaker system that streams all your favorite music to any room or every room. Control your music with one app or fill your home with pure immersive sound. Add to your existing music services or discover something new.

Go to Sonos.com right now. Sonos, send Joe House something. He loves Sonos. Thanks to Stamps.com. Oh, I do love Sonos. Yeah. Send Joe House something. Thanks loves Sonos. Thanks to Stamps. Oh, I do love Sonos. Yeah, send Joe House something. Thanks to Stamps.com. Stop relying

on the post office. Buy and print official U.S. Postage using your own computer and printer. Sign up for Stamps.com. Use the promo code BS for a four-week trial plus a $110 bonus offer that includes postage at a digital scale. Go to Stamps.com. Click on the microphone at the top of the homepage.

Type in BS House. Don't forget your boys keeping it 1600. Live pre-game and post-game shows for Sunday's presidential debate. Doing it on Facebook and Twitter. Facebook.com. I watch every second. I love those guys. Them calling

Sean Hannity three weeks ago was the funniest thing that happened in the month of September. Well, we want this to work because if we can pull off this Facebook-Tw funniest thing that happened in the month of September. Well, we want this to work because if we can pull off this Facebook, Twitter thing every once in a while with live events, which we think we will, it'll eventually lead to you and Shaq at the Masters where you're just wearing your own green jacket. You're wearing your own green jacket in the Callaway Shaq house, only it's just covered in blue cheese. It'll be great. It'll be your destiny. I'm bringing our boy Chris Vernon along. He loves the Masters.

Yeah, don't be... When are you going on Chris Vernon's podcast? He invites me. I don't think I'm going to allow that. I'm going to block that one. I'm a pod whore. I did Chris Saliza two weeks ago. You did the Saliza. I give it up to anybody.

Saturday night, October 15th, Boston, Massachusetts. Jimmy Kimmel and I are doing a live show at the Schubert Theater. All proceeds benefit Harvard Scholars at Risk. Go to citycenter.org or call 866-348-9738 for tickets. C-I-T-I center dot org. And that's it, house. So listen, do me a favor. 9738 for tickets CITICENTER.ORG and that's it house so don't

listen do me a favor don't look at the Western Conference over-unders next week I promise not to yeah cause there were

a couple we'll do another quick drive by and then we'll get serious about the preparation yeah yeah

I'm getting serious this weekend I'm throwing myself into it I we're both gonna go most importantly 3-0 for these Callaway parts we picked. Yeah, yeah. We got that.

We have to. We got that. All right. Enjoy the weekend. Go Red Sox. Thanks, house. Thanks, Lombardi. And we'll talk to you next week.

Rewind this track right here. Close your eyes. And picture me rolling.