The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 133: 'Friday Rollin' With Mike Lombardi and Joe House

Episode Date: October 13, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons brings on noted Falcons nonbeliever Mike Lombardi to discuss the Bengals' lack of physicality (10:00), the Cowboys' two-down offensive dominance (16:30), Ben McAdoo's mismanagement (23:00), and Buffalo's limited talent level (30:30). Then, Joe House joins to give his top NFL picks for Week 6 (35:30) and offer up a primer on the NBA over-unders in the Western Conference (50:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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All right. Mike Lombardi, Joe House, coming up. Let's do it. Yeah. Clear enough for you. All right. Yeah. All right. On the line from FS1 and Fox.

You can see them this Sunday on the 11 p.m. I'm sorry, the 11 a.m. Fox NFL Sunday show. Mike Lombardi, how are you? Great. You'd never see me on the 11 p.m. show. I'd be out like a light. You'd be asleep. It would just be you with a napkin on you. We are taping this on a Thursday,

so we don't know what happened tonight in the Broncos-Chargers game, but we can guess that if the Chargers don't win, I don't think it's going to be good for Mike McCoy, right? I would suspect so. I mean, look, the Chargers are the best 55-minute team in football. I mean, they are really good. They can throw the ball down the field, they lose receivers. I think Travis Benjamin is one of the best unknown receivers in terms of, you know, what he gets behind the defense all the time. He can take a five-yard out and turn it into a 50-yard play, but they can't close out games.

Now, maybe with Bosa playing a full game, they can perhaps play better. I thought Bosa was good last week. I think Melvin Ingram is one of the best unknown defensive rushers in the league, but they can't finish games or secondaries atrocious. So the Patriots, Brady came back. They unleashed a two-tight end offense last week, which was a dream come true for me with Bennett on one side and Gronk on the other a lot of the time.

And it looks effectively unstoppable. I don't know how long these guys can stay healthy. I think when Deion Lewis comes back, that's going to even add another thing to it. But how do you think defenses are going to attack this offense? Well, I think the way they handle it is unique. First of all, if you try to play your sub-defense against it, they've got to be able to run the ball, which they've proven they could. And then when you want to say, I'm going to double Gronk,

and I don't know if you do this in Madden or not, but what McDaniels does is he takes the tight ends and puts them outside, and he puts the two receivers inside. So if you want to double Gronk, it's really almost impossible because then you're going to run your linebacker and your safety out there. The box becomes very light. If you want to play zone and you just want to run your linebacker and your safety out there. The box becomes very light. If you want to play zone and you just want to put your corner out there, then you're giving it to Brady.

He knows what he's in. He knows where he's throwing the ball. So by that formation, it becomes very difficult. That's why the best offenses, whether it's in basketball or football, don't have to substitute and can run a multitude of offense. When the Bulls had Pippen, he played power forward, he played point guard, he played three. Jordan moved around. You kept trying to substitute the match to him. It couldn't happen. This is what happened when they had Hernandez and they had

Gronk. Now they have Bennett and they have Gronk. It becomes very difficult. And if you can run the ball like they didn't do against Cleveland, but typically they had been doing in the season, it becomes more than enough for any defense to handle. And Hernandez couldn't block like Bennett does. I don't know how you really stop it, especially maybe James White is a lot better this year, but I've never seen him run the football like he did in that Browns game. He really looked great. But I think part of it had to do with the fact that they were so worried about the people that the Pats had on the field.

It made it a lot easier. Don't you think when, as this evolves and as this goes, I do feel like they didn't want to show that much to the Browns in the Browns game with the games they have coming up. But don't you think they're going to go no huddle with those two tight ends on the field? And how do you sub? Like, what do you do if you're the defense? You're just going to be on your heels the whole time. If they get the Bengals locked into what they want, then they'll go. It all depends on what you get them locked into.

If you have them in nickel and you want to lock them in the nickel, then you're just going to play tempo. If you have them in base and you want to go with it, see what I think they're going to end up doing is they'll end up going to a 13 personnel game they'll put derby in or they'll put scrugs in they'll use they have four tight ends on their team so they'll bring another tight end in and now do you want to play base to that you want to play nickel to that and then they're going to make gronk a wide receiver ideally what i think would be if i was played madden with them i would put i wouldn't have a running back on the field i would put the the three tight ends, one receiver, and I'd make Edelman in the backfield.

Oh, wow. And then you would create all sorts of problems with it because you couldn't really match it. And Edelman could run enough like they did with Hernandez when he was in the backfield. So there's so many ways you can go. And that is why tight ends are like knights in the chessboard, because they're so versatile in what they can do, and they can attack from so many different places, that when you have really good knight play in chess, you're a dominant chess player.

When you have really good tight ends in football, you can be a dominant offense. And I think that's what it is. And I think when you're talking about James White, he's like that Fred Flintstone. You know when Fred Flintstone used to get in a car and he had to run his feet like five times before the car would get going? Well, that's James White. I mean, James White needs a clear path to get going. He's a Fred Flintstone runner. And so he can't really go. And so when he gets a clear path, wow, James White looks like a good player. But when he has to kind of stop it, he's not. And that's what happens. But when Deion comes back,

that's going to open up a whole new world. Deion is checkmate for all of them. Because if you want to play nickel, Deion will six people, it's beep, beep, it's roadrunner. Everybody misses and he goes for five yards. And if not, he can catch the ball in the backfield. And then you could take Edelman and put him in the backfield and put Deion out and see everything that the Patriots do,

it's to get to the adjustments of the defense. That's what the essence of their offense is. What is their offense? We want you to adjust your defense. And once we know what your adjustments are, we have you in checkmate. The Bengals last week, I was dead wrong. I thought they were going to beat the Cowboys. I couldn't have been more wrong. Obviously, a make-or-break week for them, but we see this happen sometimes with playoff teams, and we just write them in for the next year. Is this team just done? What's going on?

Well, they can't protect. Dalton's the classic 20-20. They're bad now. This is a game where two bads are going to meet, and who's going to win? The Patriots are horrible in red zone defense, and the Bengals are horrible in red zone offense. So something's going to give here. But I think without having Marvin Jones,

I think he was the guy that really hurt him the most. I mean, you could see what he's doing in Detroit. He's a big play receiver, making plays down the field. They don't have that element of their offense. And then they can't really run the ball. I think their offensive line play has been poor this year. They've given up 17 sacks. Dalton's gotten hit too much.

They can't run the ball. Jeremy Hill might be out this week. Bernard's a nice change of pace runner. He's not Fred Flintstone runner, but he's a really good runner in terms of he can make you miss right away. And I think that when you see this happen, I think that their offense just has too many areas. And then the most critical component of what they can't do is, if you make them what the Cowboys did on Sunday, if you make them check the ball down and throw the ball in front, they can't put together

eight really good plays. They're horrible on third down. And if they have one negative play in the drive, if it's a holding call or a false start, and they're in second and 15, they can't overcome it. And that's how they've gotten beat. Pittsburgh's done it to them. Dallas copied the Pittsburgh game plan and did it exactly to them. And I think that's what New England's going to do. New England's going to say, hey, you want check downs? You got them.

We're not giving up. You know, A.J. Green, the minute he walks on the Foxborough property, he has two guards around him. He's never going to make a play, and we're going to go from there. That's basically what they did to Houston. Go ahead, put together your 15 play drives. Be our guest. That's right.

Well, Houston, they knew that if you played cover two to Houston, Houston was going to run the ball no matter what you did. That's why on third and six, you showed cover two shell, they're going to run the ball. If you play single high safety, they're going to try to throw the ball out to the numbers. And when you can reduce the offense by what you do on defense, then the defense has the advantage, just like we talked about with New England's offense. When you force them to do everything on defense, they can't do anything.

Just quickly, Cincy's offensive line was really good last year. What happened? You know, it seems like they have a lot of missing pieces going. They're not playing with great continuity, and they're not playing with the same level of, I would say, physicality that they have. Now, you know, it's funny. Pittsburgh's talking about how physical their practice were. Yeah. They've been, and Ben's complaining, but it's really benefited their team.

They're one of the best tackling teams in football. On defense, they break tackles on offense. I think that has something to do with them. But what happens with Cincinnati is when you're a good team, you think, well, if we just keep everybody healthy, we'll be okay. And then you don't practice enough football. Their pad level's too high on offense. They can't knock anybody off the ball.

And I think it's really been a problem for them. And I think that has showed up against defenses that I wouldn't say are the best defenses in football. Do you believe in the Falcons yet? You know, I think offensively I definitely believe in the Falcons. But defensively, I'm not going to be sold on the fact that they had a play. They played against a backup right tackle and a rookie quarterback that looked like a rookie. I'm not going to be on that. I think they're going to have to prove to me that they can play toe-to-toe

with a really good team like Seattle. Now, this is a challenge on the road. I mean, do they expect them to win? No, but I think we'll learn really more about their defense this week on the road in Seattle. If they play competitive, win, lose, or draw, if they play competitive against Seattle's offense, not that I think they're great, but I think Seattle with a week off rested,

then I'd say, okay, look, Atlanta's the team to beat. I think they're not going to be like they were last year and fall apart. But when I look at them on defense, I see they're playing some rookies. I think there's some liabilities within their scheme in terms of things you can get on them. I'm not sold on Vic Beasley just because he got sacked

against the backup right tackle last week, so he's going to have to prove it to me against good players. I would say I'm cautiously optimistic. But what they're doing offensively I think is outstanding. I think it's one of the best things in the league. They're throwing it down the field, they're making plays, and they're forcing you to have to defend the whole field.

Boy, the Italians are stubborn. I'm half Italian, so somehow I'm 100% stubborn, but only half Italian. But you're not going to buy the Falcons. You're just, it's not, you're just not, you're not going to get talked into them. Not yet, no. I think they're going to have to prove, I mean, look, I'm not buying the Raiders either. I think the Raiders are the Tennessee,

the college team Tennessee. I think they're the Tennessee of the NFL. You can't keep going with this dynamic that the Raiders have and win. You can't do it. You lead the league in penalties. You have more unforced errors than any team in the league. You give up way too many big plays, and somehow, someway, you stumble onto some wins.

And I'm just going to tell you, it's like when I was a fat kid in New Jersey, when Larry Bird was hot in the first half, I was happy. When he was cold in the first half, I was mad, because eventually the numbers are going to seek to where they are, and so those numbers are going to come back on what happens with their defense. I mean, the Raiders cannot sustain this dynamic. They can't. They turn the ball over.

They make mistakes on unforced errors. They can't do it. And they also can't protect leads. They can't do it. And they also can't protect leads. They can't protect leads. I think this week against a good, well-coached team, the Woody Hayes offense of three

plays to get your first down, I think there's no question that this is the kind of game that the Raiders don't win because there's just not enough attention to detail on how they play. So, my favorite things that I've seen this season, Vikings defense, Falcons offense, Cowboys run game, Raiders offense. I mean, they could add 50 points last week if their receivers could stay in bounds.

The Seahawks defense, I think, has been way better than I thought. And the Pats offense. What else would you put? Potential for the Pats offense. Yeah, well, you could see it in that first half. I think they eased the... They took the foot off the gas pedal when they realized they had the game won. But I think in that

second quarter, I think there was a point where they could have gone for 60 if they wanted it. But what else would you put on that list of just the things that have jumped out at you in a really good way? Well, you know, I think Dallas is... Everybody's talking about how good Dallas is on, Dallas is the best team on third down, but they're also the best CFL team in the

league. So they get first downs and two downs. Yeah. Think about that, Bill. They have a rookie quarterback and they get, they're the best third down team and they're the best CFL team. That's hard to do. Yeah.

Like that's really hard to do. And I think their game plans and the way they attack their opponent, especially without Dez Bryant. I mean, they don't have Dez Bryant in the game. And I think Pittsburgh's sneaky defensive team that's getting better each week the way they play defense. They're really good in the red zone. They improve in that area.

And I think they're kind of sneaky good. And I think they're fun to watch. I think Pittsburgh's a fun-to-watch team because if Pittsburgh doesn't have a letdown like they did in Philadelphia, I think Pittsburgh has the complete team to be challenging everyone. And somehow they've found more receivers. Sammy Coates, Eli Rogers will come back. I'm sure he'll be good for them. They grow them in Pittsburgh, practically.

It used to be when Carolina had a bunch of receivers down there, and teams would take their receivers off there and they would take them somewhere else and they wouldn't be as good. It's just somehow the way they coach them. I think Richard Mann does a great job in Pittsburgh on coaching them. I think Kevin Colbert does a tremendous job of picking them and they're patient with them and they develop them. And I think the one thing they do,

like you don't see coach running routes that coach can't run. That's the thing that drives me crazy about receivers is certain receivers can run certain routes. They can't run them all. And so, like, don't let a three-point shooter drive to the rim. Let them shoot threes. And so if you've got coats, let them run vertical. This is what's happened to the Jets' offense. We talked about this in another podcast.

They have no depth at receiver. so now they lose Decker, and they don't have anybody to replace the Decker role, and they have nowhere else to pick it up. And it becomes a problem. If Belichick was the coach of Dallas, and Romo told him a week from now, I'm ready to come back, what would Belichick do? Probably see if there's trade availability.

Well, we know they can't trade him because it actually makes more sense for them just to pay him to be their backup than it would to trade him or release him. Yeah, I mean, they're not going to get anything for a guy who hasn't proven he's healthy. I mean, Sal would be the only person that would give up two number ones for Roma. He would do it right now. He would run on another tier. Yeah, he would do it today. But contractually, though, it would cost them almost as much to just keep them as it would.

But they would get away from the future years and all that, and that would certainly help them. I mean, right now he's one of their highest-paid players on the cap, and they're not getting anything out of him. And at some point you've got to ask yourself the question. I think if he came back, I really think if Bill were, I mean,

they'd lose $11 million. They'd have to designate him a post cap one, a post cap one salary cap. And he's on the cap right now for $20 million. They're two best players. Romo and Des Bryant aren't even playing. That's 30 million of this year's cap they're eating up. It's amazingly similar. Actually, $33 million of their cap.

It's amazingly similar to the 0-1 Pats. It really is. The 0-1 Pats, they just gave them Bledsoe a giant contract, and they had Terry Glenn. Right. And next year, their cap numbers are, they add up to, there's 24 cap number for Romo and 17 for Dez. So, you know, do the math.

I mean, at some point you're going to have to. Now, Romo, I think if Romo thought he was going to get traded or something was going to happen, he would probably say to himself, look, you know, I'd rather go do television. But to me, the question you asked me, what would Belichick do, I think he'd keep playing. No, I wouldn't. I'd scratch think.

I know he would keep playing Prescott because he wouldn't be sure that durability was still in play for Tony Romo. He would be concerned about Romo going out there and getting hurt again. Right. He would not be all chips in the center of the table because the guy has played four games in the last two years nobody has any evidence including Sal that he could stay healthy yeah I think the best case for this and Dallas is best out in the whole scenario is to just say it's too risky to bring him back derail the momentum they have and then Romo gets hurt again and you can do the whole thing where you go you know we Tony's ready to play and he's ready in an emergency to play but we're not gonna think about starting him again until he's 100 healthy

and then you just never define what 100 healthy is you're like oh he's 98 healthy yeah you're not ready yet and just you drag not that jason garrett will do this but he should go to the press conference and say look you know until tony at practice, we're going to have to beat him up a little bit in practice and hit him. I mean, let's be honest. You're not just going to put him out there with live bullets and say, go ahead, Tony, have a nice day. I think there's got to be a plan for it. And I think that's the way the question should be asked for Jerry, not who's going to be the starter. Sometimes we ask the wrong question.

We make it easy for people to give us a vague answer. Like, be specific and say, Jerry, what's the plan for Tony? How are you going to practice him when he comes back? And now he's got to answer, being the head coach, general manager, and king of all the Cowboys situations, he's got to answer the question directly. The sloppiest coaching performances that we've seen this season, the Giants, the Rams. I'm on a Giant, Tam.

Wait, hold on, hold on. I'm setting you up for it. Giants, Rams, Texans? I think Bill O'Brien's been particularly awful in some of these games. The Lions? The Dolphins? Not totally Adam Gase's fault, but it is what it is. And I would throw the Bengals in there just for the talent they have. I think the Giants has been the most shocking

to me. Okay, go. Well, I think that McAdoo is, I think he's in a situation where everybody thought he was going to be good on offense, but you can't do what he's doing and looking at the Fred Palermo menu there and think he's going to be able to see the game. Wait, we've got to do that.

Hold on, it's been four years since the Fred Palermo, but you've got to explain that one. It's one of my favorites. So you go to any restaurant in the world that has, like, okay, you go to Cheesecake Factory, and I'm sure they cook a lot of things on Cheesecake Factory menu really well. Yeah. This is my Uncle Fred's theory. But it's potluck whether you're going to get a good meal. But if you go to the French Laundry, they have six things on there.

You're getting a great meal, no matter what you order. And so when you run an offense, you've got to know what you're going to run. The Giants are 26th in the NFL in rushes and completions. Now, you know what that means? The dog got fired up. Now, you know what rushes and completions are, Bella? Rushes and completions are you add the rushing attempts and the completions together. You have to be over 52 to be a good team.

Yeah. Okay? Right. All right. That's for a personnel guy. Now, you have to understand, when you're in an NFL team, when you're running an NFL team or you're running an NBA team, you're a veterinarian. The patient doesn't talk to you.

So you have to use indicators to tell you what's your execution like. What are you doing well? What's not well? Rushes and completions are the first thing. It's like taking the blood pressure of a patient. You go to rushes and completions, you see the Giants are in the bottom half of the league in rushes and completions. Their execution is horrible. Why is your execution horrible? Because you're cooking too many things. You have too much stuff on the stove. You can't cook anything good. Meanwhile, your defense can't execute either. It has too much on its menu. It's bad. The Giants are bad on offense and rushes and completions. They're bad on defense. You talked about Adam

Gase. I think Adam Gase is learning how to be a head coach. I think he's going to be a year away from ever doing it. Why? His team's last in rushes and completions on offense. His team is second to last on defense. Their execution is horrible. When you ask me the question, why are his football not as good now as it's been over the years, I would say we have too many inexperienced guys who are head coaches.

It's affecting the product because they don't know how to set up the game plan or how to set up a team like Belichick does, like Pete Carroll does, like Mike Zimmer does, how to set up a team to prepare for the fight. Remember, a football team is like a boxer. You've got to prepare with sparring rounds before you go execute and play. If you don't do that, you have low rushes and completions. You have poor rushes and completions against you. And to me, I think that's what we're seeing.

And McAdoo, forget him not challenging the play on Sunday. Forget him calling a timeout. Forget him being stubborn in the press conference. Forget that Eli Manning's playing horrible. Forget that Odell Beckham's been out of control. All those things, when he watches his team, his team's not running effectively. Yeah. I loved you got mad at him on Twitter because the camera kept cutting to him

and he's looking down at his Cheesecake Factory menu trying to figure out, Eli, run 102.5 slash B38-4. And it's just like, hey, here's what I did. Just tell Odell Beckham to get open. Watch the game, Ben. Yeah. Do you realize what he did? Now, NBC did a horrible job of covering it, okay?

They did a bad job. I don't know how you felt about it, but they never showed you the replay. For example, it's second and 13. he throws the check down to Starks. Starks doesn't catch the ball. We think he does, but he doesn't really. It goes into a pileup. McAdoo says, well, it was a tough scramble.

We just didn't get it. No, Ben. No. No. If you would have been awarded the ball, it would have been the best thing that ever happened to you. You know why? McCarthy would have challenged it. It would have been awarded the ball, it would have been the best thing that ever happened to you. You know why? McCarthy would have challenged it.

It would have been a turnover. He wouldn't have had to challenge it. But McCarthy would have challenged it, and then McCarthy would have gotten the ball back. And you know what would have happened? The ball would have been an incomplete pass, and you would have kept that timeout in your pocket. But no, you had to see. Bill, it's what you call false duality. False dualities are this.

You think you have a decision between A and B, when really the decision is between A, B, and C. And these inexperienced head coaches can't see the C. They can't figure out. If McAdoo throws his challenge flag at that play, he accomplishes exactly what he set out to do by calling the timeout. However, he would have been able to get the ball back

to call the timeout, keep his timeout, and have the ball make it third and 13 and give his team a chance to win. But the sad part of this whole story is, he does no idea what he did wrong. You can't learn to win until you figure out how you lost. Why doesn't, you know, in basketball you see this.

The young coaches get like the veteran guy who's been there, who's coached a few teams. He's like kind of the lead senior assistant. Football teams don't seem like they really do that. Like couldn't Tom Coughlin, obviously it wouldn't be McAdoo to help, but couldn't Tom Coughlin mentor somebody like wouldn't be McAdoo to help, but couldn't Tom Coughlin mentor somebody like Dirk Cutter in Tampa or Adam Gase and just kind of be the senior figure in their lives? Or is that too wacky? You would think that's what you'd want, but what happens is because this is the entertainment business and everybody's scared if somebody's

taking your job, you know, you make sure you hire the least possible way, and that's what happens. I mean, McAdoo here, he's doing a job as a coordinator. It's the Peter principle. He's doing the job as a coordinator, so we're going to make him the head coach, and what happens now? The offense is horrible, and we're getting, I mean, really, after five games,

if you're John Mara and you're Jerry Reese, have you really improved over Tom Coughlin? No. The whole thing worked out really you really improved over Tom Coughlin? No. The whole thing worked out really sadly. I miss Tom Coughlin. I miss his face turning bright red during night games. I miss his weird management of the two-minute drill.

I mean, I think people, you know, he didn't do a good job the last couple years, let's be honest. But he's certainly more competent than at least seven of the coaches that we're watching right now. Well, I mean, Mike Shanahan, I see him on that commercial doing tickets, and I'm thinking, how is he not on the sideline? I know he hasn't – Washington, he went to the playoffs with RG3. Not many people have gone to the playoffs with RG3 since. You know, and I think there's some issues but experience

matters and I think that's what we learn from Bruce Arians and that's what we learn from Mike Zimmer Quickly, shockingly bad things that have jumped out to you so far like the Jets, the fact that the Jets don't have a pass rush with all the guys they have or the Giants offense Ryan Tannehill

Ryan Tannehill's unbelievable he's due to make $20 million he's on the cap for $20 million next year. Or the Colts offensive line. Anything else you'd put on this list of just you're watching and going, oh, my God, I can't believe this. Well, I think New Orleans, thinking that they could ever be good in defense. I think San Francisco not really addressing the quarterback problem.

I know they're going to play Kaepernick now, but if you're there in the offseason and you're saying to yourself, we need a quarterback, where is it? Where's it coming from? I think that's a real issue. When I look at Miami and Tannehill, I know he defended Tannehill. That's another mistake. He goes to his press conference and says

he's my starter forever. So the other 45 guys say to themselves, well, we can play like crap, and we'll start too. I mean, the one who looks good is Bika Grimes. She's the one who said he couldn't lead, and he's up in Tampa now. I mean, she looks like a prophet in this whole thing. Oh, Brent Grimes' wife. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

She looks like the prophet. But I would say that those are the surprising things. I think the other factor is if you know who you are like Dallas does and Philadelphia does and Minnesota does, then you can play to your strengths and you become much better. By my PowerPoll calculations, I have the Bills as the 10th best team. I know this aches your heart, but I don't see any other way around it. Do you believe in the Bills at all yet?

I don't. I know they've played well the last three weeks, and their defense has given up under 20 points the last three weeks, and I think it's good. I think when they play the Patriots the next time, look, they got San Francisco. I don't know what to expect out of Kaepernick in this game, so I don't really have an idea. But I mean, I think it's a nice story. I don't think it's a sustainable story in Buffalo. I really just don't. I think they's a nice story. I don't think it's a sustainable story in Buffalo. I really just don't. I think they lack some players. They lack talent on defense.

But Darius coming back was good for them. Right, and I think Alexander's been a sensational player for them. I mean, he's really done a nice, he's played better than Mario Williams. Oh, he's in Miami, by the way, and they couldn't wait to pay him down there. Yeah. So, you know, I think it's a – but I think at the end of the day, if you don't have a real true passing game, which they don't in Buffalo, it's a big play thing. McCoy's great making people miss tackles.

It's a lot of loose plays, and if you don't let them play their style, I don't think they can beat you. I'm going to recalibrate your thinking just a tiny bit, even though you know more about football than me. I think it's hard for you to accept mentally the fact that this limited Buffalo team that can basically just run the ball and do a little stuff defensively. And the coaching is erratic and they get a lot of penalties. But the league is so bad right now that that might be enough to make the playoffs. They're just good enough at two or three things.

Maybe that's all you need to be the 11th best team in the league. Yeah, I had that revelation this week when I was reading and doing research for the preparation, and you kept saying Tennessee on your podcast is going to win the South. And I'm thinking, how can they win the South? They're one of the worst teams I've seen on offense throwing the ball. And it dawned on me, you know what, they're going to win the South. I mean, maybe they're going to win the South. i think that's probably right i've come to that i mean

it's taken a while i may have to go to betty ford to really grasp it but i i get it i understand it well we used to have tiers right and you'd have your top five which we actually have still and then you'd have like your next five that were kind of lurking, lingering, couldn't write them off as Super Bowl teams yet. And then under that would be maybe four or five other teams that could easily go 10-6. And now we just don't have that last group, and it's just a bunch of crappy 7-9, 8-8 L.A. Rams type of teams, and there's 20 of them.

I mean, I just was doing research on the Rams. I mean, they average under 10 yards of completion Rams. I mean, they give up, they average under 10 yards of completion, and they average like 3-1 a rush. How do you beat anybody with that offense? How do you do that? And yet they have their 3-2. How are the Titans? I think a lot of it goes back to what I was talking about earlier

about the jobs we're giving head coaches. There's not all, there's, look, becoming a head coach in the NFL is a harder job to get to the United States Center. There's only 32, there's, look, become a head coach in the NFL is a harder job to get the United States Senator. There's only 32 of those. Yeah. And yet there's not 32 qualified guys to be head coaches. That's the problem. I mean, the Titans are favored by seven points this weekend, which tells you all you need to know about 2016 NFL. Mike Lombardi,

a pleasure as always. We'll see you on Sunday on the Fox 11 a.m. NFL show and we'll hear you next week on the BS podcast. Thanks, Bill. All right. Thank you. Before we call house, if you've ever seen anything we did in my office for Facebook Live, you probably noticed how nice my posters look. Well, our friends at FrameBridge framed everything in there. They're the best.

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Do your thing, FrameBridge. Frame those things. Again, framebridge.com. Promo code BS. And since we're here, let's talk about a perfect mattress that's sold directly to consumers. Let's talk about an award-winning sleep surface

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and we keep score like it's golf. And House is somehow, what are you now, plus seven? You're plus seven. Plus seven, but look, I just came off the golf course. I'm here at the lovely Westwood Country Club in Vienna, Virginia, coming to you live, getting ready to go do a golf Calcutta. I'm changing the luck. 4-11 so far this season.

That is atrocious. But I'm ready to change things up. Here's my rule with this stuff. You either want to be really good or really bad. Because if we're really bad, then people can just pick against us. So I feel like this is a win for us, the fact that both of us are not doing that well. I think I'm plus two or plus four. I can't even remember.

I would tell folks, please, I implore you, go against me. If you would like to win, go against the picture you're about to hear. Well, we're taping this on a Thursday, and I think we're going to put it up on a Thursday. So it's a little Thursday night rolling. But we're going to make the Thursday night game as part of the thing because I think I'm going to pick it too. But why don't you tell them about the Callaway Irons first?

You know what I'm going to tell them about is the Callaway Chrome Soft Golf Ball this week. It's still the case that you can go on CallawayGolf.com and order anything that you like. And if you enter the promo code HOUSE, they will ship whatever you've ordered for free to you. That's for free. That's like me walking in your house and giving you money, which I probably should do in view of my terrible pick so far this season. Go online and order yourself a couple dozen of Chrome Soft, the ball that changed the ball, and get them sent to your house for free.

Just enter in-house. Great. Now give the people a winner. Just enter in-house. Great. Now give the people a winner. Thursday night, Broncos minus three over the home team, the San Diego Chargers. Four and 11 I've been so far this season, but curiously enough, five and O on Thursday night. In our picks poll, you are five and O on Thursday night, so we'll give you that. Five and O on Thursday night.

Bill Simmons has confirmed it. I have a Thursday night play. I am taking the Denver Broncos minus the three at San Diego. All season long, the reason I think I'm 5-0 is because I have not thought about these games one bit. I've just said, looking at it, completely ignoring the line, which of these two teams is better? And then picking the better team. Tonight, I think Denver's the better team. There is also a wonderful angle.

Denver, for some reason, 8-1 straight up and against the spread on Thursday night. It's an incredible on the road lately in their division. 15-0 straight up in their division the last 15 games on the road. Who knows why? Wow. I'm now staying away from the Thursday night. I was leaning towards San Diego, but then I realized the more likely outcome

is Mike McCoy getting canned. My first pick, and we're going to go quick because we're going to do NBA over-unders. We have to do the West this week. We did the East last week. We're going to do the West this week, and it's a preliminary. It's an appetizer. You don't know the over- East last week. We're going to do the West this week. And it's a preliminary. It's an appetizer.

You don't know the over-unders yet. We're just going to sample them. We're going to dip chicken nuggets and blue cheese and barbecue sauce and just feel it out. Chicken tender in a cheesesteak nacho. I did that last week at the Nats game. Go Nats, by the way. Game five tonight.

I know. Good luck with that. I have the Ravens against the Giants in Giants Stadium. The Ravens are getting three and a half points. I actually think the Ravens are both not a good team, and they're also not bad. They're in that nice little zone where they're competent. They hang around in the games.

They're not good. I have no illusions of them winning the Super Bowl, but it's a professional football team. And I watched last week fairly carefully. They should have beaten your Washington Native Americans. They gifted the Deadskins that game. They gifted it because Mosley did the interception. I don't blame him for reaching out, but if he does that, they probably win the game.

It's out of bounds at the one. And Perriman caught the game-winning touchdown, and his right foot was out of bounds. I don't know how Washington won that game. And then the Ravens went and fired their offensive coordinator, which I always like. I feel like it's a little spark for the team. Because watching that Ravens offense, it didn't seem right.

So I don't know. And I also think the Giants are just not good. I don't think they're well coached. I have some serious concerns. I love having any underdog in Giants Stadium because they're so spotty there. And I just like the spot for the Ravens. Do your second pick. I am speaking of the Deadskins.

I feel like I owe it to the DMV to go against the Deadskins every week now while I'm on this stink streak. We have to ride the stink streak going against the Deadskins. Philadelphia minus two and a half. Eagles defense has been extremely impressive this year. I said the defense, not Mr. Wentz, who has been wonderful, but the defense has held all four of the opponents the Eagles have faced to season-low yards thus far this season.

And the Deadskins have continued, as we just observed, their streak of accepting gifts. They win when the other team gives them a wonderful gift. Failed fake field goal from Baltimore last week. The Deadskins with a punt return for a touchdown. I'm taking Philly minus two and a half. They're here in Washington. Washington has not been strong at home over the last five years or 10 years or however long Daniel Snyder has been responsible for this awful franchise. So

I'm taking the Philadelphia Eagles minus the two and a half. I like, well, I have it at three for the record. Oh, okay. Sure. I'll take it at three as well. You always somehow seem to give yourself an extra half point, miraculously, on all these mistakes that you make. It's really made a big difference, hasn't it? Yeah, it really has. Maybe God doesn't like when you do that. You know, I watched the Eagles last

week come back against the Lions, win the game, and then Ryan Matthews fumbled, and then they lost the game. And it was one of those games where they were down the whole time and nothing was going right and they still rallied back and almost won. They might be pretty good. My second team, I can't believe I'm doing this. I'm taking the Rams of Los Angeles,

one of the worst coach teams in the league, with one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. They're in Detroit. They're getting three and a half points. I think the Lions are just awful. I just think they're a terrible football team. I can't believe the Eagles didn't beat them. I think the Rams defense can win this by themselves.

At the very least, I find it hard to believe that the Lions can beat any team with a good defense by more than three points. If they do, God bless them. I'm taking the Rams. I have a small quibble. I like the Rams in this matchup as well. The reason I did not make a play on them is because the line that I saw had dropped all the way to three, and in some quarters, all the way down

to two and a half. So I laid off of it. If it's three and a half, speaking of people giving themselves the extra half point, I like the Rams as well. I'm in agreement with you, but that's themselves the extra half point, I like the Rams as well. I'm in agreement with you, but that's not my third pick. What's your third pick? I do like the Rams, though.

My third pick, and I gave a Twitter teaser on this last night, there is an incredible Andy Reid angle that I am jumping all over. The Chiefs are now apparently a pick-em at Oakland. But Kansas City has a great, and in particular Andy Reid, a great record coming off a bye week. 18-3 straight up, 15-6 against the spread

over their last 10 games. In this matchup, Kansas City against Oakland, when Kansas City is coming in off a loss, they are 9-1 against the spread. That's a house nugget. And they got killed in week four. They had a week to think about it.

I have the line as Chiefs plus two. I looked at all the lines right before we did the thing. Wonderful. Chiefs plus two. Daddy loves that. So there's also another wonderful angle. Oakland is a terrible play as a favorite for whatever reason historically. And you also have – well, I was going to say you also have the young team

handling success. That always goes – The thing I like, right in your wheelhouse, this is a Bill Simmons special. If we went to the Bill Simmons power rankings right now, Oakland only has one single solid win. All the rest of their wins are 50-50 games, according to the Bill Simmons power ranking. Yeah, I feel

like they had the San Diego game won and then they gave up the touchdown. All of a sudden, San Diego's driving for the game-winning field goal. It was like a 55-45 game, but you're right. Every time they've had to pull it out of their butt, it's always close. And Lombardi was on before you, and he was pointing out how the Chiefs,

this feels like the game where they just put together their 15-play tribes, and the Raiders get dumb penalties. I like this Raiders team. I still believe in them. But I think they need the bucket of water thrown at them a little bit. Yeah. And I think this is it. A little saltpeter.

And I have a little extra treat. Let's put a little saltpeter in there. I have a little extra treat for you. I'm joining you on the Chiefs. Let me hear it. Yeah, that's my third pick. Oh, how about it? I didn't even know that Lombardi was going to pick,

but I like being on the same side as Lombardi. I don't know if he picked. Yeah, well, I guess he basically did pick them. All right, we're going to do NBA over-unders for the West. But before we do that, House, one time I saw you eat how many chicken wings at the Grand Round that time? It was in the 60 range. It was either just south of 60 or just north of 60. It was all-you-can-eat chicken wings night at the Grand Rann in Worcester, Massachusetts.

I told you that, and you said, let's go there. I'm going to keep eating chicken wings until something terrible happens to me. And that's exactly what you did. Only it wasn't something terrible that happened to you. It was something terrible that happened to the bathroom in our dorm. But at the time, we didn't have Buffalo Wild Wings in our life. And now we have a place that specializes in great wings, a place that specializes in knowing that fans prefer the taste of glory

on game day, the kind of glory that comes with 21 signature sauces and seasonings to choose from. I have to interrupt you. Hold on. Let me do it. Get through it. But I'm sitting Hold on. Let me do it. Did you? Get through it. But I'm sitting here speechless.

Please get through it. Or a great lineup of cold and refreshing beers on tap. You like cold and refreshing beers. Or a collection of wall-to-wall flat screens so big it makes your head spin. We cover all these details here at Buffalo Wild Wings. I don't even work there. I just lump myself into it because this is making me hungry. So they add up to the kind of game day experience fans can appreciate. They do it because they appreciate fans.

Win or lose, if you're a fan, you're still going to win having the best game day atmosphere. There is Buffalo Wild Wings, Wings, Beers, Sports. They do it for you because you're a football fan. Okay, now you can talk. I can't believe that Buffalo Wild Wings is a sponsor on this podcast. Is it my birthday today? What happened? You held out on me. I had no idea I was going to hear anything about the Buffalo Wild Wings. I can't wait to go sample some Buffalo Wild Wings. I mean, I'm going to take pictures. I'm going to social media. I love Buffalo Wild Wings.

Here they are, good friends. Taste of glory. I remember when they launched, and I don't remember when that was or when they became known. I remember you telling me about it, and you were telling me about it. I can't even describe the joy in your voice that there was just some place out there that actually made chicken wings and buffalo and all that stuff that was just in that genre. Because when we were in college there were no genres.

It was just restaurants that served a lot of stuff. I mean, you had like Papa Gino's and pizza places and things like that, but there was no place that was like, we're owning the chicken wing space. Yeah, wing expertise. Wing experts. I'm so fired up.

So is the ground round, that's still your record? 60? 60 plus? Yeah, because I didn't have any reason to really try and mess with that once I hit that level. I mean, I'm sure by now that's chump change. I mean, Danny Chow could probably eat 120. I wonder if you could eat more than that now. Maybe we should just go to a Buffalo Wild Wings and figure that out.

That sounds like a great idea. Let's do that. Let's do that. You need to redeem yourself from that gross tacos thing we did. All right. The West over-unders. Here we go. You have not looked at these.

You promised me you wouldn't. Deliberately. I have not looked. Alphabetical order. The Dallas Mavericks. I'll have you guess each one. I'll just say the name you guess The Dallas Mavericks. I'll have you guess each one. I'll just say the name you guess. Dallas Mavericks.

And I have in front of me a list of their records from last year. So I'm going to basically go off of what I've heard has happened in the offseason, what I know has transpired, and then what their record was last year. I want you to go fast. I'm going to say Dallas. Okay, 39. Okay, it's 40. Go faster.

This is our appetizer edition of the over-unders. We're blowing out the real one. We'll do either next week or the week after. Dallas is 40. Can Buffalo Wild Wings sponsor that, too? Oh, my God. I might eat some wings while we're doing it. I don't think you could eat as we did this.

So Dallas, what's interesting, and I didn't really realize this as we're doing the east last week but the west is just deeper than the east is and you have basically 11 teams in the west that have a chance to do well and win 45 games i'm not saying it'll happen whereas in the east you just go down the line and it's like that southeast division in the in the east the team that your wizard the division that your wizards are in you might have down the line and it's like that Southeast division in the East, the division that your Wizards are in, you might have like a 40-42 champion in the Southeast. Yeah, I agree. It feels like the West has 8 to 11 teams that can win between 38 and 46 games.

Yeah, and more than that in some cases. Right, right. No, that's a different thing. Once you get past the more than that in some cases. But yeah, I mean. Well, right, right. No, that's a different thing. Once you get past the Golden State Clippers, Spurs, Houston, and you go into that next class of Utah, Oklahoma City, Portland, Dallas, Minnesota, Denver, Memphis, those are all teams that it wouldn't shock me if they went 45 and 37. None of those.

Even Minnesota and even Denver. I'm telling you, I wouldn't be blown if they went 45 and 37. None of those. Even Minnesota. And even Denver. I'm telling you, I wouldn't be blown away if that happened. You put Houston in that top tier and left Portland out. I did. You're going to make those people mad again. They're always mad at you. Oh, shit. I didn't think of that.

Don't come after me, Portland. I'm not ready. I'm in on Portland this year because I like the Evan Turner signing. I think he's going to be good for them. Golden State, we both know the over-under for this already. It's 66 and a half. I'm going to save my thoughts for when we do the over-under podcast. Yeah, we expressed skepticism right when they announced it.

We were both incredulous, but I have to confess my feelings may be changing. This is why I wanted to save it. I have the same confessions and desires. It comes down to this. To lose that bet, the Warriors have to lose 16 times. So you just have to walk yourself through a scenario where 16 times over six months somebody beats them. When you start thinking about it that way, it seems less realistic.

Houston, 44. Daddy got burned on the Rockets last year. Daddy might want to put more money on the Rockets with my burned hands. Yeah, this is a double down. This is get all the money back in one fell swoop. We single-handedly drove the James Harden MVP odds to like 8-1.

I'd like to take credit for that because I had not seen that case made anywhere in a big, splashy way. Is that true? Yeah, it's like 8-1. 8-1 now? It dropped. It's 10-1 and 8-1. I got it at 20, Daddy. I wasn't allowed.

I wasn't allowed to wager on it. Oh, yeah, you're not allowed. Now I'm back in on the LeBron MVP thing. I've talked myself into that angle. I'm going to hedge that. I'm MVP thing. I've talked myself into that angle. I'm going to hedge that. I'm doing that. I'm hedging with that. I think we have to Jedi mind trick LeBron

and try to win the MVP. I might write a column next week for The Ringer just saying how LeBron will never win another MVP and then just repeatedly put it in his Twitter replies until he reads it. MJ won five MVPs. MJ won five MVPs. Kareem won five MVPs. MJ won five MVPs. Kareem won five MVPs.

Russell won five MVPs. Hey, LeBron, you only got four. You're not quite good enough. Get in LeBron's ass. Not quite as good as those guys, LeBron. Gotta get that fifth one. Or you're just not gonna matter. The legacy of your legacy will be four MVPs, not five.

Not gonna matter. Not gonna matter. It's absurd. It's so absurd. I love it. No, if I was on one of those talking head daily shows, I would be doing a big spiel about LeBron James can't coast now if you're chasing the ghost of Michael Jordan.

A fifth MVP is a good place to start, my friend. I'd be doing that. Well, all jokes aside, there is a sentiment where he deserves, for what he did last season, the MVP for this season. Could you see that happening? Yeah, except Curry was unanimous on it. If he plays 70 games or so and Cleveland rips off 60 wins, don't you think that that might be the narrative?

Are you going to feel... I don't know what the... I can't figure out narratives anymore. Are you going to feel a sense of happiness at all for Nene when he actually looks pretty good on this Rockets team? You enjoyed Nene. No. No, no? No, I'm not.

Because Nene mailed in the last two seasons. He showed up for 50 games. He barely practiced. He could have made a difference. He really... Almost Bullets finished at 41 and 41 last season, and he could have made a difference in getting them back to the playoffs, and he didn't.

I was always amazed when he made. No thanks for you, Nene. No thanks for Nene. I was always amazed when he mailed in the 2012 Olympics. I think when players mail in the Olympics, that's a special breed of I don't give a shit. Rarified mail in. Alright, Clippers are 54. Seems

very fair. I need some time to chew on that one. I think there's a case to be made for them as the two seed, which I'm not going to make today. Sure. The Lakers. I don't love them as the two seed, but I said there's a case to be made. I'm not necessarily

on board with it. Lakers are 25 and a half. Ooh. The D'Angelo Russell cat is out of the Snapchat bag. I think people are honing in on him as a big secondary league guy. He was in a

Byron Scott bag. Byron Scott had them all bagged up. He had to put them in a big body bag. And then he didn't help his cause with the whole Nick Young thing. Is Nick Young and Iggy Azalea back together or are they permanently broken up? I think it's over.

Oh, that's too bad. I like Iggy. She's probably too good for Nick Young. Probably. You know, ESPN hired Byron Scott. I like Iggy. She's probably too good for Nick Young. Probably. You know, ESPN hired Byron Scott. I love when ESPN fires coaches who just literally set back coaching like 10 years and said stuff like they don't believe in three-pointers. He was on the record last year saying, in my day we didn't care about the three-point line and that's the way it should be now, or whatever the hell he said.

That was ludicrous. All these three-pointers are crazy. You can't win with three-pointers. All the stuff he said, that was insane. And now he's going to be on television analyzing basketball. I thought that was very exciting for all of us. I can't wait to see him get in arguments with Zach Lowe. My guess is Zach's such a nice guy, he won't, you know.

They're not going to have them sitting in the same. I hope they do. I really hope. If there's a God, Zach Lowe and Byron Scott will be on the jump together. Would be my dream. My word. Be great.

Byron Scott. Look, three-pointers are overrated. We like the Lakers. Although Byron Scott could do the whole case of three-pointers. The Warriors didn't win the title that's what I was saying he could do that I'm excited for actually great hire this man great hire

I'm excited for Byron Scott it'll be good anytime you get somebody who really put together two of the worst back to back coaching performances of all time all time the Cleveland Cavs job he did, and then the Lakers job he just did. I can't even...

The damage can't be calculated. He almost ruined D'Angelo Russell's career, and D'Angelo Russell might be a five-time All-Star. Anyway. There's still time, fortunately. It's tough to blame Byron Scott for that Kobe. That last season was the season of, you know, it was a megalomaniac season,

and Byron Scott was the perfect accomplice. Nice guy. Magic Johnson, always spoke highly of him. Terrible coach. Really, really, really bad. Memphis, 44. Just my gut feeling is, like, if Parsons' knee isn't coming back, that seems like a logical under.

Gasol's foot. They have a lot of injury questions. 44 seems a little. New coach. We've been saying this about Memphis every year. Yeah. Stay away. Too many injury questions.

Miami. Oh, no. We did Miami. Milwaukee. No, we did Milwaukee. Minnesota. They're in that conference. What do you think of Minnesota's?

What do you think it is? Just out of curiosity. They won 29 last year. I bet it's 40. I bet the Tibbs bounce and K-A-T, how he showed out last year, my guess is 40 for Minnesota. 42 and a half. So you have to bet 43? Yeah.

I'm not doing that. That's too many. I like them. There might be two all-stars in this team. Not playing point guard, which is my issue. Townsend, well, what about Chris Dunn? What if this is Chris Dunn's team by, like, December? What about him?

Who knows? I don't know. What's his body of work we'll see right my fear with minnesota is that they're this year's milwaukee milwaukee got sunk by high expectations for a very young team the difference is that tibbs and towns that is a combo where you have a coach who's already a top five or top six coach and your best player actually gives a shit and works hard and cares about all the right things and stays on the court. Like, when you have that as your foundation,

it's pretty hard to go under 500. So they'll be in the mix. Formidable. Formidable combo. New Orleans, on the other hand. Yeesh. 36 and a half. Take the over.

Tate likes the over? They love it Hey Tate How many Tell me how many games Anthony Davis is gonna play This season The over under is

Is 42 They put a list Of all his injuries That I retweeted All the injuries he's had Over like the last four years And It was alarming

Just the Just alarming How many little Aches and injuries And bumps And broken bones and all that stuff. Jesus. Well, the problem is a lot of that stuff, it seemed like half that list would be things that other guys might play through. He might be one of those guys who can't play through stuff, that experiences pain in the way that has him missing games. Because that was a missed game list.

It wasn't just the injuries. It was games missed due to injury. Right. Let's save Davis, because that's a whole other topic. My guess is he did have one of the best under-25 statistical seasons of all time two years ago. It has to be mentioned. I love him.

I want him to succeed. Me too. The league is better when he's playing. Me too. All we're doing when he's playing. Me too. All we're doing right now is figuring out what is a logical way to go on over-unders, and it just makes me nervous. Memphis and New Orleans, when you have all these injuries, injuries make me nervous.

Oklahoma City has risen to 45. How many did they win that season? They only won 43 that season that Durant was out, right? 43 or was it 44? I think they played like 27 games without him and went 15 and 12 down the stretch when Westbrook was doing

his 2006 Kobe impersonation. Yeah, whatever record that team ended up with, that's the record that I think this team's going to end up with. I need a little bit more time to marinate on it because there's things to talk yourself into with Oklahoma City. The Stash brothers playing together, Oladipo. There's a case to be made.

I don't know where the shooting is going to come from. I don't know where the perimeter defense is going to come from. You don't know where the shooting is going to come from? Who guards? Aren't his initials Russell Westbrook? I'm in the shooting that's going to go in. And who guards Paul George on this team? Who guards Kevin Durant?

Who guards... I'm trying to think who else. Who guards those 6'6 to 6'8 guys that a lot of teams have who can score and play inside out I think they're really going to miss Durant's defense and obviously we're going to miss

Abaka's defense but those are they lost their two of their three best defensive players they're essentially giving away they gave up 18 feet of wingspan defense and you're putting a lot on onerson, Roberson, Roberson, Roberson.

You're putting it on both of them. Both of them. Rob and Robe. He did not have a good regular season and blossomed a little bit in the playoffs, which we have seen happen before, where a guy gives you the tantalizing rises to the occasion in the playoffs and then you don't see it again sometimes and now he's in a position where every night he's gonna have to guard the best guy on the other team so there's some red flags uh phoenix it looks like 29 okay let's just

move on anyone talk about 29 is the number? Okay. A lot of young guys. A lot of trade possibilities. Could see them going in on a whole bunch of directions. Trading more people. Trading for a veteran.

Rudy Gay. Boogie Cousins. LaMarcus Aldridge. Or it could go the other way. I don't know. Where they're trying to get rid of Bledsoe I do think they need to trade Bledsoe or Brandon Knight because if on them I would just want everything to revolve around Devin Booker

and that would be our destiny as a team and let's just figure out how to get to that goal if I lived in Phoenix I would be mad at the franchise well they have assets they had something special three years ago If I lived in Phoenix, I would be mad at the franchise. Well, they have assets. They had something special three years ago. They have assets, so they have stuff to work with.

I like some of the pieces they have. The problem is it's a little like Philly where the pieces don't fit yet. And unlike in Philly, at least the pieces play different positions. Portland is 45 and a half. Feels right on the money Feels perfect Always worries me a little bit When guys get paid

The first year after guys get paid I'm not worried about it Scares me a little bit I love the spirit Buy a new house Got new people in your life Your uncle wants to open a car wash You get a lot of that stuff going on.

Takes your eye off the prize. Makes me worried. Sacramento, 32 and a half. That seems just ludicrous. Why? Well, ludicrous in which direction? They have no point guard in the team that is competent. Oh, okay, okay.

You feel like that's too high. Yeah, well, you know, when you guard in the team that is competent. Oh, okay, okay. You feel like that's too high. Yeah, well, when you're in the West, and night after night you're playing good teams, you're playing two-thirds of your schedule against good teams, you're going to have the stronger teams, and you're going to have weaker teams. There's a bell curve. At some point, somebody's got to be on the wrong end of the bell curve,

and there's not enough teams in the West that are low bell curve teams. The win-loss records have to give it out. They have a wonderful spot at the wrong end of the bell curve. They win 33 games every year. That's what they're going to win again this year. Yeah. I don't know which way I feel yet, but it seems like low 30s seems like the right move for them. The Spurs are 57.

They won 69 last year. Duncan retired. They replaced him with Pau Gasol, who's just better at basketball at this point. God bless Tim Duncan. But, you know, he was playing 60 games a year and 15 minutes a game last year. And it was over. Gasol will at least do that. They have another year with Aldridge under the fold.

It's more Kawhi's team now. I'm not exactly sure why this dropped 12 wins. I had them at 67 wins last year. Oh, 67. 67 and 15? Yeah, you're right. So they dropped 10 wins. Yeah, I'm going to lean over because I think they're the second best team in the West,

and I don't even think it's close. I guess the catch would be if Golden State has an eight-game lead on them with a month to go, they're just packing it. The last one is Utah, which is 47. Oh, so is that down a hair? It's down a hair when everybody realized how fucking ridiculous it would be that Utah was going to have it over under 49.

Everybody looked at each other and goes, wait a second, what are we doing here? My Twitter feed has a lot of warnings from Utah fans. Don't you dare. Don't you dare undersell what this Utah team is bringing to the table. It's a great case to be made. They won 41. I was going to say they won 41 and 41 last year and had a shitload of injuries.

And they've added some better ones. No, they went 40 and 42. They had the last game of the season. If they had won it, they would have made it into the playoffs. And they did not win it I watched that game 40-42 my bad I watched them lose a lot of

what seemed to be winnable games in the last four minutes and I couldn't tell if it was the coaching or the lack of the go-to guy or the lack of a competent point guard they brought in George Hill who I like I'm not sure he's somebody that's going to add six wins to your total. Exum is back.

Gobert's a year older. They got some vets. I don't know. Zach really likes him. I like Joe Johnson. Joe Johnson actually looked pretty good last night. I like that pickup. Okay. I don't have a feeling on this one.

47 just seems high but it makes sense if you think about the ads and then the last one is we forgot to do Philadelphia last week it's just like us Philadelphia is 25 feels right that's it?

that's all you got for 25 for Philadelphia? what feels right about it? I think it feels wrong. If Ben Simmons had not gotten hurt, I would have liked the over. I would have pounded the over. It would have been a nice overplay. Just because I feel like there's some karma that they deserve. But apparently not the basketball gods took one look at that karma meal and turned it into poop. So 25 is right on the number for Philly.

That seems about right. What was your favorite of those? Preliminary, what was your favorite of those over-unders, just having heard them for the first time? What am I? I'm going to, gonna i mean i can't put this we we've had a whole week of people using profane terms to describe things in their lives so i'm not going to be too profane but i really like houston i'm going to do i'm going to do something very special with houston i like golden need to be profane about it. I've almost 100% talked myself into that Golden State being the lock of the decade.

Wow, the decade! Nah, I didn't say I fully talked myself into it, but who's beaten them 16 times? That's a lot of times. Yeah, yeah. I tried last year to parlay Oklahoma City and Golden State, and then Oklahoma City in the second half of the season decided to give away several games in the second half of the fourth quarter. They had many winnable games. They should have won 60 games last year, so I was very mad at Oklahoma City,

which colored my feelings in the playoffs. I'm going to parlay Houston and Golden State. I feel like that's another. Let's get Houston. Houston owes us after last season. I'll find out. Houston really burned us last year, and it's tough to think about going back. What about Denver? Did we do Denver?

Oh, we didn't do Denver. We didn't do Denver? I like that Denver team. Me too. What's the number? 37. Seems low. A lot of athletes on that team.

I like Jokic. Like some of the shooters. Moody A second season. How many other? Can they get Miro Tich? It would be nice to have a lot of Tiches on that team. Jamal Murray's on that team. Will Barton.

Underrated six man of the year potential. Yeah, 37. Wilson Chandler didn't play a minute last year. What's terrible about the West versus the East is that in the East, Denver could potentially be like a four or five seed.

They get to 42 wins in the East. In the West, they might not get to 35. It's brutal. It's cyclical. I don't mind that. Thanks so much to Harvard Scholars at Risk. On Saturday night, October 15th, Boston, Massachusetts, Jimmy Kimo and I doing a live show at the Schubert Theater. All proceeds will benefit Scholars at Risk.

Still a few tickets available. Go to citycenter.org or call 866-348-9738. If you're a student, tickets only $24, and you can buy two per student. Come on, Boston colleges and Worcester, Massachusetts colleges. Don't forget about any given Wednesday. We're off this week. We return next week with six straight weeks of shows. Don't forget to check out TheRinger.com and our ongoing Mammoth NBA preview.

Don't forget about our other eight podcast feeds and the Ringer Network, including the new Ringer University and Keeping It 1600, their last pregame postgame debate show coming next week. See you in Boston this weekend. Thanks, house. Eat some wings for me. Buffalo Wild Wings. Oh, my God.

Anytime y'all want to see me again, rewind this track right here. Close your eyes. Pitching me rolling.