The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 135: NBA Over/Under With Joe House and Week 7 NFL With Mike Lombardi

Episode Date: October 20, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons brings on football aficionado Mike Lombardi to discuss Green Bay's talent pool problem (6:00), the not-so-bad Bills (14:00), Carson Palmer's struggles (19:00), the Jags' potential statement win (22:00), and the revamped 76ers (26:00). Then, Joe House joins for the annual NBA preseason tradition of picking over/unders (30:00). Topics include: Howard vs. Horford on the Hawks (34:00), the Celtics' improved spacing (39:00), LeBron's MVP mission (46:00), PG-13 and the sneaky-good Pacers (51:05), Delly on the Bucks (57:00), MSG and Brandon Jennings (1:00:00), John Wall vs. Brad Beal (1:04:00), the Nuggets’ League Pass potential (1:07:00), the Warriors' 16 potential losses (1:09:00), Thibs and the T-Wolves’ turnaround (1:20:00), the Jazz's crunch-time problem (1:24:00), and the many chips on Russell Westbrook's shoulders (1:28:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Go to Stamps.com. Click on the microphone at the top of the homepage, type in BS. Don't forget about any given Wednesday. This week's show had Bob Costas, Al Michaels, and Vince Staples. It was so lively and entertaining. We ran a nine-minute digital clip with Bob and Al. We also talked about the

San Diego Stadium. Unfortunately, we went against the debate. That was a problem. Fortunately, they're rerunning it all weekend. It's also on HBO Go and HBO on debate. Check that out. Don't forget to check out TheRinger.com, our ongoing and mammoth NBA preview. Lots of rumors that I have an NBA column coming next week.

Lots of rumors. Sources say. Don't forget about all of our other podcast feeds on The Ringer Network as well as Keeping It 1600's live show next week, which we'll be running exclusively on Stitcher for 24 hours. Is that right, Joe? And then we will run as an actual podcast.

Excited about that. I'm really excited for this pod. It's a tradition. NBA Over-Unders coming up after Mike Lombardi. Let's go. All right. As always, every Friday, we are joined by Mike Lombardi from FS1 and Fox, our old friend. It's actually Thursday.

We're taping this before the Thursday night game. And we're going to put this up before the Thursday night game. So, Mike Lombardi, what's wrong with Aaron Rodgers? Oh, you want to get me started on this? We don't have to. We don't have to. I had to throw it out as an obligation because that's the topic this week. But do you have a 30-second theory?

Well, I think the talent around him has really gone downhill. I mean, Randall Cobb, I'll use your line here, Bill. Randall Cobb, do we still think he's good? He averaged 14 yards a catch in his heyday. The last two seasons, he's down to 10. They have no tight end. We're going to play a running back that you and I don't know. I mean, America's Most

Wanted's going to have to look him up to find out if he's still on a roster, so we don't know who he is. Niall Davis? No, Niall Davis, he's going to dress. I mean, Starks is hurt, and so is, and they just put Lacey on IR. Ugh.

And then, Jordy Nelson's not Jordy Nelson. But it's always going to be Rodgers' fault. And I think what happens is because they rely so much on their draft picks, they refuse to diversify their portfolio. They don't ever look outside of the draft. They'll sign free agents if you cut them, Julius Peppers, Jared Cook. But for them to sign a free agent and go them, Julius Peppers, Jared Cook.

But for them to sign a free agent and go towards the compensatory pool, they won't do that. So it's always going to be on the draft, and I think that shows its effect right now. They haven't picked outside the 20s. In the last five years, all their draft choices have been in the 20s. So their talent level is down. If you own the Packers or if I own the Packers,

and they lose this Bears game tonight, or it's another terrible game, I would fire Mike McCarthy. I would say I've seen enough. I don't know what you would do, but I know that the Packers won't do that because they're owned by like 3 million people, and they don't have that one voice. So what happens? What happens if they lose tonight? If I were Mark Murphy, I would say to, look, we got to give ourselves the best chance. And the best chance to win isn't just putting all our eggs in one basket. I call it the Jed Clampett

theory. You know, Jed went out there and he shot and he found all this oil. But to become a billionaire, that one shot's never going to make it for you. We've got to find a way to diversify our portfolio. We've got to find a way to sign some free agents, give up some compensatory picks, maybe make some trades. This was the first trade they made, I think, in the last five years. What people don't realize is they had Marshawn Lynch. He wanted to go to Green Bay. He was going to go, and the Packers refused to trade for him. Now, you put Marshawn Lynch on those teams, and perhaps Seattle doesn't win the Super Bowl, and Green Bay does. You just worked for the Browns and the Patriots. If you wanted somebody from Green Bay, or you wanted to talk deal with them or whatever, who did you call?

You'd call Ted. Now, they really have a really good pro personnel department. Elliot Wolfe, Ron Wolfe's son's very good. I mean, they're really good at personnel. They have fine free agents. I mean, this is, to me, this is, that's why I wouldn't fire anybody, because they're good at their jobs. They just need to diversify. Right. You can't buy all one sort of stocks. You've got to diversify. If you just go into the drug stock business business and they go down, you go down. And so you're always dependent upon one thing.

And I would say to Ted is, look, Ron Wolfe was here before you. Reggie White was a free agent. When Aaron Rodgers had Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Michael Finley, Jordy Nelson, when he had those kind of talent around him, we were really good and hard to stop. But we can't get that all the time, picking in the 20s. I have a counter theory to your theory, which I loved. And by the way, I'm still waiting for some enterprising listener to put all of your theories on one blog post, the Fred Flintstone running back, the Fred Palermo menu, the Jed Clampett theory. But the problem is nobody knows who Jed Clampett is.

No, I got it. It's Beverly Hillbillies. They'll bring that show back at some point. They'll bring every show back. But here's my counter. Because the Patriots, my beloved Patriots, also did this with Tom Brady. I think sometimes when you have an awesome quarterback, you decide, all right, well, we're good. He can make steak out of shit salad. Give me a phrase for that. Yeah, chicken shit out of chicken salad. Yeah, chicken shit out of chicken salad.

Yeah, chicken salad out of chicken shit. God, we are so dumb. But that's the attitude because you're like, oh, we don't have to spend on that. We're fine. Brady will make Rashe Caldwell work. And then you go into the AFC title game and Rashe Caldwell, you're counting on him in the biggest game of the season. It feels like Green Bay is at that point with the Rodgers supporting cast

where they were just like, we'll put all our efforts in these other parts of the thing and they haven't really helped him out. Randall Cobb's not a number one receiver. He's not a number two. He's the Scotty Williams of football. Remember when the 76ers

signed Scotty Williams from the Bulls and they thought they were going to double his stats because he played 10 minutes and he had eight points and five rebounds. they thought they were going to double his stats because he played 10 minutes and he had like 8 points and 5 rebounds, so they thought they were going to get 16 and 10. That's what happens. You expand the role. And the other factor here to me, there's a little bit of truth to what you said there,

is you tend to pretend the quarterback's going to carry it over. But what happens in Green Bay, because this is not McCarthy's fault, this is kind of a cause and effect. Because they rely so much on the draft, McCarthy can't have an expansive playbook. Right. Because the young players don't learn it that quick. So he's got to keep his scheme way lower so they learn it, which then hinders Aaron Rodgers. Because you can imagine Aaron Rodgers, he's learned this offense so far.

It's boring to him. It'd be like going to history class in the seventh grade 10 years in a row perhaps somebody has done that i don't know but that would be a little boring you know and what you just mentioned there is one of the biggest reasons why the product's been so lousy i was stuck i was thinking you know i was stuck i was texting you i was stuck on that virgin america flight watching the entire texans colts game. And Collinsworth's getting all fired up the last couple drives because Brock's heating up. I'm like, he's not heating up.

The Colts' defense is decomposing. It was just terrible football. It's the Colts' defense. Everybody's like, well, Brock played better against the Colts. Right. I mean, anybody plays better against the Colts' defense. That was, to me, that was an indictment of Brock Osweiler. That wasn't a support of Brock. There's no way you could put that tape on

and say, okay, here's why we gave him $18 million. Like I text you, it's the Lufthansa heist. It really was. I mean, there were less people involved in Brock Osweiler than were in the Lufthansa heist. And it didn't have Ray Liotta celebrating in the shower afterwards.

Exactly. Or they didn't go to some diner to talk about it. I actually, Denver is one of the games I really like this week because I think Brock threw everyone off his scent because he had a couple good drives at the end against a tired Colts defense that had just basically stopped tackling and covering. And that's not going to work against Denver in Denver. I'm sorry.

It's not. No, it's not. And I think these tackles for Houston aren not going to work against Denver in Denver. I'm sorry. It's not. No, it's not. And I think these tackles for Houston aren't going to block the Denver edges. And I think Brock takes so long. He checks the runners at first and second before he delivers the ball. And it's so hard. He doesn't do anything with any fast twitch to him. He's slow.

Right. And when you're slow against a Denver defense, that's a problem. It takes him a while to heat up, which is a problem when you're a quarterback and a pitcher. In basketball, you could go two for ten in the first half and catch fire. In baseball, you're out of the game.

And in football, you have three picks and two fumbles and you've ruined the game for your team already. Hey, it's time. Every week I ask you, it's time to play a game of do you believe in them yet? First off, the Falcons. Do you believe in the Falcons yet? You've been resistant.

I was a little impressed with what they did. The comeback I thought was really good. Look, I think the last play of the game, we could always talk about that. The last play of the game is difficult. But I think Atlanta showed enough toughness beyond the road that I'm a believer in them. I think the South is horrendous.

I think the Saints' defense, which is remarkable, could be on par to be as bad as it was in 2012. When they had 12 games in 2012 of over 400 yards, they allowed. And they're on par to do that here. The only game they've given up less than 20 points, they lost to the Giants this year. So I see no competition. I think Atlanta's got some confidence.

This is going to be a big test. San Diego's a great 55-minute team now. I mean, they're really good and they'll throw the ball on them and they'll move the ball. I kid Jacksonville a lot. And Jacksonville has played defense in the first five weeks as good as anybody, except for the Charger game.

The Chargers got eight yards per pass attempt. 8.8, I think, was the number in the first passing game, in the first game. No team has come close to that playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And Jacksonville's defense is similar to what Atlanta does. So the Chargers, I think, are a little bit more of a threat here in this game. And I think Atlanta will find out if they can handle success. We know the Raiders couldn't handle success. That was kind of like a given.

I think Vegas admitted they messed that lineup when they readjusted it on Sunday morning or whatever they did. But to me, this game here, can the Chargers? I think the Chargers are good. They move the ball. Rivers throws it really well. For some reason, they get down the field. Benjamin's a problem.

I think this will be a harder game for the Falcons, but I'm back on the Falcons. I see the Falcons. I see where we're going here. So you'd like to apologize to the city of Atlanta? I would like to apologize to all the Falcons fans, yes. I was thinking about your 55-minute theory. I think Trump is the first 55-minute debate guy. He can hang in for 55 minutes, and then the wheels come off,

and he gives up an 80-yard touchdown. Are we sure he's 55? I mean, really, he's a zero-minute guy, but he can't make it through the debate without one thing happening. Do you believe, yet, in a team that I have ranked number nine right now? I can't believe it, but it's true. The Buffalo Bills. Do you believe't believe it, but it's true. The Buffalo Bills. Do you believe at all?

I think it's remarkable. They are only one of three teams in the National Football League that have more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns. The Cowboys and Atlanta has the same. They have exactly the same number. But they're remarkable in what they do. They really are. I mean, their runs, they're the number one team in 10-yard runs by a lot.

I think they have 31 10-yard runs. They're the best 20-yard run team in the league by a lot. And so I think LeSean McCoy's having an MVP-type season. I mean, let's be real honest. He is. And I was dismissive of their offense not being able to score 30 more points against their, but the reality of it is they're scoring points because they're making big plays with their running game, And I was dismissive of their offense not being able to score 30 more points against their, but the reality of it is they're scoring points because they're making big plays with

their running game, something that I don't think they could do. And then Taylor's made throws up the field. You look at their schedule, I think their schedule's favorable. Again, this is a test here. And if you look at the numbers, Tannehill against Rex Ryan is not good. So this is a game that they should go into Miami and they should handle. But look at Shady McCoy's numbers when he plays in Miami. South Beach has an effect on Shady.

Just go through the South Beach, just go through his numbers there, and he hasn't really been an effective player when he goes down there. So this is a game that, on paper, no question they should win. But I think the reality here is I think Atlanta's got a little confidence. Shady's 27 carries for 128 yards against Miami in his career. In 2015, last year, he had 11 carries for 16 yards against the same, well, not the same, I think they're missing some parts of their defense. But I think Buffalo is a legitimate team.

And I'm saying because McCoy, to me, is really a strong MVP candidate. So Rex made the move of the year so far when he fired the OC after two games. And when you watch them now, they do have an identity. They're old school. We're going to run the ball. And on defense, we're going to take a bunch of chances. We'll throw the ball downfield a couple times. We have a quarterback who can do stuff with his legs.

It's scary. If they had Watkins, this would probably, in my mind, be a top three team in the AFC, which says more about how bad the AFC is. But you look at Pittsburgh, and Ben, they're saying four to six weeks. The guy's superhuman. He'll probably be back in two weeks. But, you know, they're going to take a hit. On the other hand, that division's terrible.

Should they take their time with Ben to come back? Well, you know, look, I think Baltimore's been one of the teams I can't figure out. I mean, Baltimore leads the league with the Raiders in penalties. Can you believe that? Everybody thinks Baltimore's a real disciplined team. They lead the league in penalties. They can't get anything going in their run game. They're the worst team in terms of rushing attempts in the first half.

I don't buy Baltimore. I don't know. So I think with Pittsburgh's looking at Cincinnati's self-destruct, we know Cleveland's got the first pick in the draft. I mean, Cleveland, I think football outsiders has them as the number one team. There's like a 45% chance to get the first pick, and the Jets in the draft. I mean, Cleveland, I think Football Outsiders has them as the number one team that has like a 45% chance to get the first pick, and the Jets are like 20. There's like never, other than the great

76ers, there's been no team that's been a lock to have the first pick like the Browns are. So I don't know why the Pittsburgh rush them back. They could go into Foxborough and they could easily, not easily, but they could beat the Patriots. That would be the one team I think the Patriots would fear playing at home.

So if you're not going to get home field advantage, you better have a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. I just want to say, for the record, I'm very scared of this Steelers game. I don't like that the Patriots are favored by 7.5. I don't like it at all. And you and I, we watch this Patriots team closely, as does my dad, and I know we nitpick sometimes. That was a very winnable game for the Bengals that they left on the table,

and they were outcoached. Lewis actually outcoached himself. There were a lot of ways they could have kept moving the ball that whole game. They took a terrible fourth and two punt at midfield, a terrible inside the two where they left, you know, seven points on the table. I thought they played as well as the Patriots in that game, except for like one or two things.

And they easily could have won. Yeah. They let the game get away from them. They really, they were right there. And I mean, they moved the ball. I mean, he was 10 for 11 at one point. It was like effortlessly. He was throwing the ball down the field.

He made the blunder on the safety, but no, I'm with you. you i think this is this is the apollo 13 game here where you know in that scene in apollo 13 where they all talk about hey we got to turn this into that yeah mike tomlin's pretty good at turning this into that right you know and so i think he's going to run a lot of bubble screens i think they're going to try to run the ball which people have run the ball on the patriots i think they're going to throw it down the field, see if they can make a couple plays, and they're going to try to get this game into the fourth quarter and give themselves a chance to win it. And now if they get behind early in the game, that goes out the window. But I think if they can reduce the game, milk the play clock, try to get as many third down, run the ball effectively, use their skill

players, use their speed on offense, because the Patriots lack speed on defense. And I think that's the challenge, and I think you have to utilize your talents in that area. I think it's one of those, and I know this, I doubt if New England's mentioned the word Ben Roethlisberger missing the game in their building the entire week, because I'm sure the Patriots realize this is kind of a game to where they need to get themselves focused on stopping the stealer offense. Don't worry about who's playing quarterback.

It's a team that on paper presents the most problems for this defense. You know, the thing that stunned me, especially like that Cincinnati game, you know, the Pats have so much trouble defending running backs coming out of the backfield on passes. And they also have trouble tackling those D'Angelo Williams, Lamar Miller type of running backs, those little got low to the ground guys. And Pittsburgh can basically do both of those things at the same time. I think they're going to have trouble tackling Williams. I think Bell is just a worst-case scenario in a bunch of different ways. Then you've got to worry about Antonio Brown.

Belichick usually, he's done it both ways. What happened last time? Butler basically covered Brown all over the field and Brown had a huge game and Butler was right there. He had 150 yards. He covered him as good as he could. Don't double Brown. There's no way they won't. They'll double him this time.

You've got to play Sammy Coach down the field and Eli and the kid, the slot receiver, is a good player. So, I mean, they've got enough weapons that they can do it. And they bounce around. They put two tight ends out there, Jesse James, and then they go Grimble comes in there. I mean, they've got a lot of things that they can do.

They just can't let the game get away from their defense. To me, this is the other issue. There was a zone defense, and Ryan Shazier's out. And when your mic's out or your inside backer's out, your zone defense isn't as good because you can't run as well. So that's a little bit deceiving, and I think the Patriots' approach will be, we're going to control the ball in this game. We're going to control the ball. We're not going to get negative plays.

We're going to limit the amount of time they can have the ball, and we're going to see if they can match us point for point. I think I wouldn't be shocked if Belichick went for it on fourth and short earlier in the game, midfield, because feeling like, look, if we get this game in the 20s, we'll win it. This game's in the teens. That favors Pittsburgh. Yeah, Patriots offense was this game.

The good news is I think Brady's like 75-1 against the Steelers in his career or something like that. Do you believe in Arizona yet? I thought Arizona's offensive line played much better the other night. I don't believe in Carson Palmer. I think he's reverted to what he was. I think the Cardinals won't be able to beat Seattle. I think it'll be interesting when they play Atlanta, how they handle Atlanta,

especially the way Atlanta moves the ball offensively. I'm not sold that they're a Super Bowl-caliber type team, but I think they're a good playoff team. Do you know the Jets are last in DVOA? They're even worse than Cleveland? You know what's amazing about the Jets is they actually are the second team to Cleveland to get the first pick in the draft. Now, they're like 20%, but that's remarkable.

And when you look at the Jets on tape, I look at the quarterback QBR and I watch Dalton play against Brady and I understand that the QBR had Dalton rated higher than Brady in that game. I didn't see that. And then they had Mariota rated higher than Brady for the week. I didn't see that either. And then to me, any stat that has Blaine Gabbert as your 14th-ranked quarterback over all the league, you should throw that out.

Yeah, throw it out. Come up with a new stat. You should throw that out. Yeah, throw it out. Come up with a new stat. You should throw that out. I mean, we need to start this thing over. If Gabbert's the 14th-best quarterback ahead of Russell Wilson overall, something's wrong with your stats. And so, you know, so I think that when you look at the Jets, I mean, they're defensive line, they rush,

but they don't have a great edge pressure guy. They can rush the passer. Williams leads their team with five sacks, but they can't cover. And they're probably not winning another game this year, potentially. They don't have any explosiveness on offense. We talked about this on the podcast earlier. Once they lost either Decker or Marshall, it was going to be trouble for them. Can they trade Fitzpatrick, or they'll waive him and somebody will pick him up?

No, that's a basketball thing. I mean, if they trade him, somebody's taking the salary and why would you want to take the salary? Everybody would say, look, the Jets... I mean, he was a free agent for 800 days. I mean, nobody wanted him. It wasn't like, who were they competing against to give him the $12 million? Well, we have to move on

because we're doing... Today's the magical day when we do NBA over-unders with House. But the good news for you is you get to do two minutes on the Philadelphia 76ers over-under of 25. 25 wins. That's what Vegas says. It's under. I mean, they can't shoot. They had a scrimmage the other day.

I tweeted to Bob Cooney, the beat writer for the 76ers. Which team, did any of them get to 10, either side? Can you imagine an inter-squad Simmons watching the 76ers play? The rim must be just painfully, you could hear a rattle all the way over. If you don't have a point guard, you don't shoot. How do you win in the NBA? Would you trade Jaleel Okafor for Ricky Rubio? I don't know Rubio that well to say that, but I would trade Okafor for a Rubio? I don't know Rubio that well to say that,

but I would trade Okafor for a point guard, yeah. I would trade him for somebody who could get the offense going. I mean, it's a team that's so poorly constructed. We've got all these big guys. If we play in a 6-11 league and over, I think we'd win that. Well, at least the Eagles have crashed to earth, too. Poor Philly. There was some excitement in Philly for like two weeks

with Carson Wentz and Ben Simmons, and then it just came crashing to a, too. Poor Philly. There was some excitement in Philly for like two weeks with Carson Wentz and Ben Simmons, and then it just came crashing to a thud. I think it'll come back this week. I mean, look, here's the thing. Philly's defense didn't play as well the last two weeks. People, I don't think it's Carson Wentz is like all of a sudden he's become a bad player. I mean, he throws the ball effectively. You know, I just think the Redskins' offense is really underrated.

People don't realize how good, and what they don't understand about the Redskins' offense is Callahan's ability to coach the running game, their offensive line coach. They attacked the Eagles really well the other night. They ran the ball to the left. They understood how they lined up their defensive front, and they knew their run fits well, and they did a great job. And in spite of Kirk Cousins kind of messing things up, the Redskins' offense is pretty

good. But I think the Eagles this week, I think this is a tough matchup for Minnesota. This is the first time Minnesota's been on the road. They have two new tackles on the road. T.J. Cummings and Jeremiah, I think it's Sifri's, is the right tackle. They're not very good, and I think the Eagles' strength is in their defensive line. I think the Eagles will put a lot of pressure on Bradford this week. I think it's a tough game for Minnesota to go on the road

and try to win the way they're winning. Last one, Raiders-Jags. It's kind of a I don't believe in either of you, even though you're both talented, Super Bowl. And I think the Raiders are favored by one. One of these teams is going to come out of this game and feel a tiny bit playoff-y. Who do you think it is?

Well, I think the Raiders think they're going to go down there and just easily win the game, which is not the case because, as I said earlier in the podcast, Jacksonville's defense is playing really well. I mean, Jacksonville, and the Raiders have trouble in their offensive line, especially at right tackle, whether it's Austin Robbins or Watson. Whomever's playing there gives them a lot of trouble.

So that's an issue. The problem with me is Jacksonville wants to run the ball. They can't run the ball. They've only had seven plays over ten yards running the ball. They can't run the ball. And they're putting a burden on Blake Bortles to win the games. And he's not going to be able to make it. Now, he came back in the fourth quarter against the Bears.

If the Bears would have kicked field goals the whole time, which they did, credit the Jacksonville defense. But this is one of those games that the Raiders think they're probably so much better than Jacksonville, and they're going to have to find out that they're not. And I think it will be a struggle. I thought Carr threw the ball really poorly in bad weather. I was concerned about a bad weather game. He has to go to Kansas City in the winter in a bad weather game.

The way he threw the ball in the rain was concerning to me. I think this is a game Jacksonville's got to feel like this is their statement game. They've won two in a row. They've played really good defense four of the five games they've played. This is a game they've got to prove that they can rush the pass, prove they can play good defense, and win another nail-biter 17-14 because that's what it's going to look like. I feel the same way about the Titans-Colts game. They've got to prove that they can rush the pass to prove they can play good defense and win another nail-biter 17-14 because that's what it's going to look like. I feel the same way about the Titans-Colts game. Titans are home.

Colts stink. Take care of business. It's kind of a weird statement game. It's like, you know, they're not going to win the Super Bowl, but at least are you a semi-legitimate team that can think about going 9-7 when they're in the AFC South? Let's see it. To me, the Titans defensive front's got to dominate the game,

put pressure on Andrew Luck, and I think their offensive line, they've got to run the ball and just reduce this game and wear down the Colts. Because if you get this game into the fourth quarter and the Colts run defense, you're going to make some big plays. You just can't let this game get away from you. Tennessee has to play one way. They've got to play in a close game. If it gets extended and they have to play it despite the QBR on Mariota, it's a problem with their close game. If it gets extended and they have to play despite the QBR on Mariota,

it's a problem with their passing game. How much did you enjoy Belichick trashing Microsoft Surface? You think he cares about any of it? It's so good. He doesn't care. It's that line in The Wire, it ain't your turn to give a fuck.

He don't give a shit. He just don't care. He don't care. You know, he didn't look. And, you know, that problem has been going on when I was there. It wouldn't work. He couldn't see the headsets went down. It's it's there's something wrong there. There's something wrong. Yeah. Well, he took care of business. Mike Lombardi, a pleasure. We look for we will treat the Sixers with kid gloves in the over under podcast. We'll see you on FS1 and on Fox 11 o'clock on Sunday this weekend. Talk to you next week.

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Start a free trial. And now, the one and only Joe House. All right. On the line, the one and only Joseph House. And we're going to zip through our Callaway par 3 picks for the NFL this week because we have to do NBA over-unders. It's our version of the podcast Christmas. House, tell the fellas and the ladies

really, really quickly about the Callaway Irons. I'd like to talk instead, if you don't mind, about the Callaway TruViz white and pink. Morgan Pressel specially made, limited edition. Go online, pick up these balls. These are the ChromeSoft

balls with the TruViz design. The money, Callaway's made a big donation to the Morgan Pressel Foundation, and these balls are super cool, pink and white. Go ahead and get on it. It's all in support of Morgan Pressel Foundation's fight against breast cancer. Promo code HOUSE gets you free shipping. Get yourself some of the TruViz. Sounds good. Thank you, House.

I'm going to do my three picks, and then you're going to do your three picks. Cool? That works for me, and I'll have a question for you when it's my turn. You go first, though. Okay. I'm taking the Titans, which I think is two and a half at home

against Indianapolis, who I watched every play of last week on an airplane and came away so lustily unimpressed by them. And I also kind of like the Titans. I feel like they're getting their mojo. Somebody spent $37 on Marcus Mariota in my fantasy league this week, which I was excited about. So that's one. My number two is the Ravens at the Jets.

I think the Jets are awful, and all the advanced metrics confirm. They have the 30th offense and the 30th defense by DVOA. The Ravens are fine. They hang around. They're not quite the good-bad team. They're like the pretty good-bad team. And then you do too, and I'll figure out my third one because I didn't mark it down. Well, let me ask my question first.

I feel like I am kind of mandated by fan law to continue going against my dead skins. Do you have a point? Do you have a thought on that? Well, we should mention you've been such an atrocity on the Callaway Part 3 that Jeff Newbarth from Callaway actually sent an email and he was like halfoking about how it was actually embarrassing to them how bad you were. I'm plus eight right now overall through six weeks of the season.

That's amazing. It's pretty great. So here's the thing. Just go against House. House doesn't have it this year. Just go against him, and then we'll make it up to you with our great NBA over-under bets. So give us two. Yeah.

Going against me would have you now 12-6 through six weeks. So that's pretty good. Six and 12 otherwise. My three, so if I take Detroit against Washington, Washington 1-4 straight up and against the spread the last five games on the road against the NFC North. That's a little nugget for you. They also still have not gone out and kicked anybody's ass to dead skins.

They continue to accept gifts. Now, I didn't expect a gift this week from Carson Wentz and the Eagles. They didn't seem to be that kind of team, but they gave one. A lot of mistakes, a lot of penalties. Maybe that's the identity of this Philly team. We were perhaps slightly, and maybe you and Lombardi already covered this,

slightly persuaded by some early season glamour. House, the people on NBA over-unders. Go faster. So I'm taking Detroit over the Deskens. Detroit minus

one and a half over the Deskens. I'm going to next select the Minnesota Vikings, not Timberwolves. I almost said Timberwolves. Minnesota Vikings minus two and a half at Philly for all the reasons I just described. I don't think Philly might be a bag of tricks.

Also, Mike Zimmer, unbelievable against the spread. 76%, 29-9 as head coach of the Vikings. 84% against everyone outside of his division. Philly is outside of Minnesota's division. I like the Vikings. I'm taking the Vikings. That was my the Vikings. I'm taking the Vikings. They're two for you. That was my third pick.

I'm taking the Vikings as well. I'm just picking their defense and the high comedy of a Sam Bradford revenge game. That's enough for me. I like it. What's your third pick? So I have Deadskins, Vikings. My third is going to be the Denver Broncos, minus seven and a half uh hosting houston i have in the same way that you have indie um uh recency bias i have i have houston recency bias the perfect stinker boy do they stink uh houston um not only

that that terrible performance that we uh were subjected to at the beginning of last week uh or end of last week also two and seven against7 against the spread on Monday nights, Houston. Terrible record on Monday nights for whatever reason. I like Denver. I said this to Lombardi. Brock threw everyone off the scent by looking good down the stretch against that awful Colts team. Good luck doing it against Denver's defense in Denver.

All right, it's time. It's time. Here we go. Is there music? No. There's a sigh of relief from the listeners who didn't want to hear our terrible football picks because we've let them down all year and we're ready for the overrunners. We're doing the Eastern Conference first. We're doing an alphabetical order.

Every year, House and I go over the overrunners. We make a pick, and then we make locks, and then afterwards we go afterwards. Now, I have no idea if we can do this in 50 minutes or if we're just going to have to do the Eastern Conference and then tack on the Western Conference to the Sal podcast on Monday. So we'll see how this goes. I would like to keep this fast. I would like a brisk pace. I'd like to play D'Antoni offense. First one, Atlanta Hawks, 43 and a half they lost al horford and jeff teague they added jared jack who blew out his achilles like a week ago and the one and only dwight howard those were their big moves uh what do you like i like the over a slight over for atlanta this year um What do you think? I like the under.

I don't. Oh. Yeah. My thought on Atlanta, just quickly, I don't think they're as good as they were last year. I think Howard, for what their offense was last year, which was basically Millsap and Horford, their ability to shoot threes and space the floor, and it's a little bit Spurs light. I think it's hard to do that with Howard. I don't totally trust Schroeder

running the thing by himself, even though I like him. I think it was nice for him that he had the Teague security blanket every once in a while. Korver's in his mid-30s now. I don't know how many years he has left. And I think there are some teams in the East that are better. I just see them going backwards. Okay.

I only like them as a slight over, and that is down four games from last year's win total. I like them at 44. We have one right out of the box with a disagreeance, which is great. It's great. I had my two that I had falling. Well, we might as well do it now. I'll just

jump ahead to Charlotte, because Charlotte did well last year, too, and I see them falling backwards, too. Their over-under is low. It's 40-and-a-half. They lost Jeremy Linnell, Jefferson, Courtney Lee. They basically added Marco Bellinelli, Roy Hibbert. Kid Gilchrist is back.

And I think they'll be around that. They feel like 40-and-42, 39-and- 43 to me. What do you think? I agree with that. Why did we skip a bunch of teams? Did we skip the Celtics and the Nets? I thought we were doing this alphabetical. I know. I jumped ahead. I had two teams

in the East that I thought were going to fall back, so I just wanted to get rid of them. I wiped them off the slate. So you like the under two for them? I do. I like them at 40 and 42 this season. I think that there was this idea that Al Jefferson was an addition by subtraction kind of thing. Yeah.

And they went on a little bit of a run. But I wasn't really impressed by Batum. This is going to be a weird thing, a theme I repeat. He didn't look good in the Olympics. And I'm holding that slightly against him this season. After getting all that money, maybe he was taking it easy

in the run-up to this season, but it was just kind of a flat performance. And I expected big things out of that French team altogether, and they were kind of flat to me. They French-kissed you. I... Kind of. I don't know if French-kiss is a good thing. And they were kind of flat to me. They French kissed you.

Kind of. I don't know. A French kiss is a good thing, isn't it? You can tell America you wagered on the French a couple times. So, Batum, the other problem with him is he got paid. That's what I just said. It makes me nervous when guys get paid. And he got paid a lot.

And the other problem for them is that he got paid more than their best player kemba walker who came up a year ago and got a contract but i think he makes like five or six million a year less than batum which i'm keeping my eye on this year as a subplot because your own wizards have that with beal and john wall and there's chicago jimmy butler's making seven million less than dwayne Wade. People don't never factor that in, but when you're the best player on a team and you're not making as much as somebody else on the team, it's annoying, especially if things go wrong. Brooklyn, oh, Boston Celtics. 52.5, I have this as my first lock.

They added Al Horford, the second best free agent, who's an adult, who knows how to play defense and rebound and shoot threes and be a good leader and chemistry guy. I didn't expect Jalen Brown was going to play, but he's going to. And I had no idea Terry Rozier was actually going to be a valuable sub off the bench, but he is. So they basically added three guys. They lost Evan Turner.

It's a team built for the regular season. It's a team that has the fourth best odds to win the title in Las Vegas right now, which is insane to me, 20-1. 52-1, not only seems achievable, but I think they're going to be in the mid-to-high 50s. It's just a team that's built to play four and five nights. They have a lot of depth. They can survive injuries, and I think they're going to be good.

That's it. This one has caused me great consternation and confusion because the 53 just feels so strong for them. Now, I greatly appreciate the addition

of the three players that you just mentioned, especially Al Orford. The thing that continues to worry me about this team is scoring at the end. We're inside of four minutes. Who's going to get the ball and convert? Because that was the big issue the last couple years. You can't put the ball in Isaiah's hands and ask him to, you know, in a close game, get those crucial buckets.

So is Horford going to do that for you? Is that going to be the guy? No, but he's going to make it easier to space the floor for Isaiah. I mean, the spacing is the big difference this year. They used to have to play Olenek sometimes to do the spacing to give Isaiah more room to do stuff. And once Jay Crowder hurt his ankle, he couldn't shoot threes anymore. He could sag off him.

And the defenses could actually sag into the lane on Isaiah and send double teams at him, which is something Atlanta kept doing. Now they have, if Crowder is healthy, which it seems like he is, and now you have Horford in that Olenek spot, but his ability to play defense too, they're going to be able to have shooters at the end of these games. And I think that's the difference. And Marcus Smart, hey, listen, I'm only judging from the Instagram videos, but he completely

changed his shot. And if he can be a decent three-point shooter with Bradley, like they're going to have spacing. So I'm optimistic. You can tell. You can tell I'm optimistic. I'm not joining you on the lock. It's going to be a tentative over for me, but I'm going to go ahead and go with the over can we skip over Brooklyn

which Ben Dietrich wrote on the ringer today about how they're basically a real life expansion team even though they're not their over-under is 21.5 they added Jeremy Lin, they lost Thad Young they added a couple other dudes nobody that important

people who either haven't done anything yet or are pretty close to being washed up. They have a new coach. I don't care. They're the worst team in the league. They have nothing to play for because they don't – or nothing to tank for because the Celtics have the first-round pick. I don't even think it matters. I just don't see how they get to 22 wins.

Under, under. We're in agreement on that. It's a borderline lock, but I don't want to totally go there. Would you go there in a lock or no? Not me, no. Okay. Just because the non-tanking thing worries me. It's March, and normally teams are shutting it down, and they're going all out to win some game in Memphis.

Chicago, I had the toughest one of anything. 40 and a half is the over-under. They basically cleaned house. They got rid of Noah. They got rid of Rose. And they got rid of Gasol. They added the Robin Lopez, Rondo. Valentine was their big rookie pick.

And then MCW, I don't think is going to play for them. They have no shooting at all. They have a very high IQ team. They have pieces that I like separately but not together. They have Wade in a revenge year. They have Rondo. I guess he's still trying to get revenge two years later. I have no idea what to make of this team.

I went under, but I think they go like 40 and 42. I don't feel good about it. So Doug McDermott is mad at you for saying they have no shooting in the first place. He's the only one. I kind of like the Chicago team, and I can't really explain it. The main

thrust of why I think they're better this year than last year is their problem last year really came down to a kind of a coaching issue, I would say. He's the same coach. Well, but here's the difference. I think Rondo and Wade are coaches on the floor. And I think that the two of those two guys together coming and creating a semblance of

order, a semblance of professional basketball order for that team and for Jimmy Butler to kind of slide back into a natural... Jimmy Butler has never struck me as a natural alpha dog. He's got alpha dog game, but he doesn't... He's never struck me as a guy that wants to assert himself that way.

So I like very much the cover that Rondo and Wade provide for him, and I actually think they could win like 44, 45 kind of games. I'm taking the over on the Chicago Bulls. I went through that whole thought process that you went through. You know what it came down to me? There were just other teams in the East that I liked more. And I think the West is going to be better than the East. So when I sketched out the records, I tried to skew higher for the West than the East.

And I figured, as we discussed two weeks ago, I thought everybody in the East, you'd have your top four. And then you'd have basically five through 12 would be within seven, eight wins of each other. And, you know, there's Wade injury issues, possibly. There's Wade, Butler, Rondo, chemistry stuff, especially if they don't like the coach and they start undermining him. My life depended on it. I think I would go under.

Cleveland, we both, we don't even need to discuss this one. I think we both like the over 57. I'm actually going to go this far. I'm go under Cleveland. We both, we don't even need to discuss this one. I think we both like the over 57. I'm actually going to go this far. I'm going lock. I think, I think, Oh wow. Yeah.

I think Cleveland, I love all the stuff I've read about Kevin love. That's been the biggest thing that's changed my mind. I didn't realize like how skinny he was. I mean, I realized it, but I didn't realize that he was unintentionally skinny last year because he couldn't work out last summer.

And I think the big wrinkles this year are going to be Kyrie now knows that he belongs as a top 13, 14 guy. You have the rejuvenated love who's in shape, who's a little more physical, who's going to be bouncing bodies, put on a little weight, put on a little muscle. And then you have LeBron with, you know, the Golden State, the super team, the motivation from the summer at Durant. And they've also been playing together. And, you know, they've been playing with Ty Lue since Cleveland hired him

in February. And the team really took off from them. I think they were on like a 62 win pace or something from when Ty Lue took over. So 57 seems easy to me. Also bad conference and all they have to do is lock up the one seed in the East. They're not going to get the one seed overall. Golden State's going to have

more wins with them but it's going to take I don't know somewhere between 59 and 62 to lock that up and I would not rule out LeBron going for one more MVP either. So you add all those things together. I like that. I'm going to join you in the lock.

57 seems like a cruise control total for this team. I like all the points you made about the familiarity. We haven't even really seen some of the role player guys who asserted themselves in the playoffs. I think the benefit of them, a guy like Channing Frye, playing a full season with this team,

we're going to see some guys, you're going to look up and see them having 26, 27-point games, like, whoa, look at that. And it's a system that's built for these role-players to kind of shine, and there's a lot of interchangeable parts. So we're in agreement. How about that? Lock on Cleveland. I know.

I know. I mean, over. You know, this is LeBron, probably his last chance to win the MVP, I think, because this is his 14th season. Now we'd be getting to like 50,000 minutes after this at that point, and I don't know if it's going to happen with the weapons they have right now and how bad the East is, how disheveled the East is, I should say. This would be the year.

So Detroit was another one I had trouble with. Their over-under is 44.5. They didn't really add or lose anybody a major consequence unless you like Boban. And Ishmith, who I think has almost been on every team in the league. Reggie Jackson's out for a couple months. The hipster internet loved Detroit as like the East sleeper, as the sleeper for the second seed, all that stuff.

I just don't see it. And if anything, 44.5 seems just a whisper too high. I see them in the 42 to 43 win range I'm going under. I saw what the hipster internet liked to say about Detroit and hadn't had a chance to circle back after Jackson's injury. Are they still as high on Detroit after the Jackson injury? Pretty much. It seems like he's going to be back.

Maybe they're not as high. I don't know. I'm picking them exactly at 44. Six weeks. I like them under. Tate says six weeks. Because I think they're going to win exactly 44, and that's going to be enough for them to get the seven or eight seed again in the East.

And that's, I think, where they belong. Here's the team that I see stealing their spot. With an over-under of 45.5, the very adult Pacers of Indiana. They added... Oh, look, heavy breathe when I said Indiana. I'm getting my papers. Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young. I was with my dad this weekend, and he was saying just how much he'd like Thaddeus Young

because he just killed us in those Brooklyn games when we wanted Brooklyn to lose every game. And there were these certain games where Thaddeus Young was just really good. I think that guy, on a good team, people are going to appreciate him. And I like Al Jefferson in a reduced 20 to 25 minutes role. They lost George Hill, they lost Solomon Hill, and they lost Jan Mahimny. They got rid of Vogel, brought in Nate McMillan as the coach. To me, this feels like the dark horse two- or three-seed. I have them four.

I have them winning at least 47 games. And I think there's a chance they could flip with Toronto for the three-seed. I like this Pacers team. What do you think? We are in lockstep on this Pacers team. I hate when that happens, but I just used the word lock. They won 45 games last year. They're only a half game better with the talent that they added. You said it. They are an adult professional basketball team. I think Nate McMillan is going to be fine plodding in behind Vogel here.

I don't think that they're going to have a big adoption period in terms of system or anything like that. It's just eight or nine or ten guys who know how to play basketball all together. I love them for like 52 games. I mean, I have a crazy number in mind for the Pacers this year, and they're going to be threatening

exactly what you just described. I think I have them up there in that 2-3 range as well in the East. So, I mean. And we didn't even mention Paul George. Oh, yeah, we're locking that one in. We have three locks so far, Celtics, Cavs, and Pacers. We didn't mention Paul George. I didn't lock the the celtics

you you're the only lock on the stuff well you you're wrong you're just the wrong person paul george also played in the olympics which we like we like the guys coming off the olympic experience and you know he's another guy he's somewhere between like the ninth and the 14th best player in the league and he's going to be motivated this is a good team it's again an adult basketball team now i know we're going to disagree on this next one miami over under 35 what do you have like way under okay dramatically under extraordinarily under all right hold on the hot take limos here it's dropping me off here we go i'm going over i kind of like this miami team i've done a 180 yeah i like them all right so here's who they lost last year

they lost duane wade who was 20 points a game who looked good certain nights. Other nights was terrible. Who stopped playing defense three years ago. Who was a little bit, I'm not saying ball hog, but had a high usage rate. And I think it affected Dragic a lot of last season. I personally, when I watch Miami, I like seeing the ball in Dragic's hand. All right, so he's out. That opens the door for Richardson to come in

and play more minutes. He's a 3 and D guy. More athletic. Your defense is better. They lost Dang. Pro's out. That opens the door for Richardson to come in and play more minutes. He's a 3 and D guy. More athletic. Your defense is better. They lost Dang. Pro's pro. Great chemistry guy. I don't know.

It's not like he's irreplaceable. Now you just give Justice Winslow his minutes. He's fine. And they lost Bosh, which makes me sad. But they lost Bosh midway through the season last year. You know, they added Derek Williams, who I think had some pretty good moments for the Knicks last year. I actually kind of like Derek Williams and that Miami team. Wayne Ellington, fine.

He's the 10th man. And Deion Waiters. A very motivated Deion Waiters. Oh, congrats. They have Hassan Whiteside. They gave him a big-ass contract. He's one of the better rebounding shot block centers in the leagues, in the top four.

And there's a lot of nobody believes in us with this young Miami team. It's a fun team. I kind of like their team. I think 35 is too low. I'm going over. So each of these last couple years, we've had a nobody-believes-in-us team sort of come out of nowhere and look on paper to be a

poo-poo platter. Well, both of the teams I was thinking of, I was thinking of Portland last year, because I greatly underrated and underestimated C.J. McCollum. Charlotte had been hovering though. The other team that I really was shocked by was Phoenix a couple seasons ago, who jumped all the way up to that. They missed the playoffs with 47 wins or whatever it was. And there's going to be a team like that. I just can't get there. I can't get there with this Miami team. It doesn't make any sense for them to keep Dragic all season long. Their best two players are Whiteside and Winslow.

No, Whiteside and Dragic. That's not a bad combo. I don't know. I have them as a six seed right now. I can't believe I'm saying that. I don't think they're anywhere near the playoffs. I don't think they're within 10 yards of it. Listen, there's going to be a wacky team that ends up in the Eastern playoffs. It's going to happen. So if you're picking wacky, you've got to go with Orlando,

or you've got to go with Milwaukee, or you've got to go with Miami. Milwaukee's not even that wacky because some people are picking them. I just think it's a good wacky team to pick. Now, on the flip side on the flip side they could decide to just start tanking in january but i have a yeah i don't know i have a feeling i don't know i i like the richardson winslow combo i believe in that combo i think they're gonna be pretty good i think this team's gonna be good defensive defensively. I think they're going to be a pain in the ass to play. Okay. Again, it's not a lock.

I'm taking a swing. I'm also going over on Milwaukee. And the principle for all this stuff, the over-under for them is 36. I just think all these teams are going to be between, like, 37 and 43 wins in the East. I think it's going to be one giant crumpled pack of mediocrity. The big one that they added that I liked was Toledovic, who I've always liked. I wanted the Celtics to get him.

They also added Delevadova. They didn't really lose anybody except for Chris Middleton, who served for a while. But they're over under 36. What do you think? I like a slight over. I get Milwaukee wrong every single year. I'm ready to be wrong once again, but I think they are better than 36 wins.

I'm disheartened by the Middleton injury because I felt like they were a team that could come together. They're incredible defensively. I loved the trouble that they gave Golden State last year. They were the first team to beat Golden State last season. It was awesome watching that. It was a scheduled game, but I love the energy. I love how long they are, and that's why I'm slightly bummed by the Middleton out.

I think Dele brings a kind of toughness to them, and he's going to be channeling some J-Kid out there on the floor. I think Dele's kind of an underrated signing for Milwaukee. So I think they could be in the low 40s as a win. You have to pay money to take the under. They were the other team. I like that. Yeah, they were the other team I was thinking for the goofy team that's like the 6 seed or the 5 seed.

It's going to be somebody. I'm 5 seed. It's going to be somebody. I'm telling you. It's going to be one of these weirdo teams. I'm not arguing it. I like Milwaukee. It just really, to me, comes down to Middleton. How quickly can he get back? Yeah, now you might be talking me into dumping Miami.

Nah, I'm going to stick to my guns. Oh, wait, can't skip the Knicks. can't skip the knicks we we didn't mention get the knicks we didn't mention that greek freaks playing point guard it's one of like the seven most fun league pass subplots this season whether he can actually pull that off or not the knicks have not had a point guard in a long time and now they have one and his name is brandon jennings just kidding it's also derrick rose they have both of them but they're over under his 40 and a half there's already been buzz about noah's not totally healthy and that signing might be not a disaster because everyone has so much money but it might be a might be a tiny disaster they lost the flalo they lost robin lopez this hernia and gomez that

they picked people seem to like i have no idea what happens with this team, but if they're not 41-41, I don't know anything. So I'm going slight tad hair over. I'm going to go in the exact opposite direction of you and go slight tad, slightest ever under because I think they're exactly a 40-win team. And that's 1,000% based on the injury history of D. Rose and Joe Noah. Now, the D. Rose trial may have unintentionally provided D. Rose with a very smooth pathway. Maybe he will be working himself into team shape, game shape

during the course of the early part of the season, and maybe that will prolong his season this year. Maybe we'll get more games out of him this way. When you started that sentence, I was more afraid than I've been in the last 12 months during a podcast, so I'm really glad you landed the airplane on that one. Listen, they have Porzingis and Carmelo. If Porzingis makes the leap up that a lot of year two guys make,

they're going to be in games. Like, it's a 500 team. You know what? I'm coming back around. I watched the Almost Bullets and the Knicks played a surprisingly feisty preseason game. And then the thing that it was last week or the week before, what I was really taken by, MSG loves this Knicks team.

Yeah. MSG was so into it. You know who they especially love? They love Brandon Jennings. Yes, they do. The New York crowd already is all in on, I want to go over. I don't want to go under on the Knicks. I'm going slight over. We're both on the over for the Knicks.

And one thing, don't sleep on Hornacek. Hornacek. Hornacek. Hornacek. Well, he was responsible for that. I always do that with the C.E.K.s. You know, out of nowhere, out of the blue, Phoenix team. And then they fucked him, and they got all those point guards,

and the Morris brothers, and it became a chemistry quagmire, and then they blamed him, and they got all those point guards and the Morris brothers, and it became a chemistry quagmire, and then they blamed him and they fired him. I think he's a pretty good coach. I went to games when, you know, Clipper games, when I just was like, wow, that guy's a good coach. I'm impressed. I think between the new coach, you know, you throw out in crunch time, you have Jennings, and you have Carmelo and Porzingis and Courtney Lee and Hernan Gomez. Like, whatever.

Play Porzingis at the five. Like, that's going to be a tough offensive team. And if they get anything from Rose, look out. And again, I'm frightened. I'm frightened of myself just bringing up Derrick Rose. I don't even want to mention Derrick Rose this year. Orlando Magic over under 37. They're also in the quagmire

I actually went under for them they lost Oladipo, lost Jennings they added Biambo and Abaka and the artist formerly known as Jeff Green and they have Frank Vogel and I'm just cold this team leaves me cold

I'm doing a tiny overplay on this Orlando team. I like, and this is really a vote of confidence in Coach Vogel. I like, I think they have to figure out what the hell to do with Biambo and Serge, but it's kind of a good problem to have.

It is? If it was 1987, it would be a good problem. It's, unfortunately, 2016. Well, you know, Serge was percentage-wise one of the top three-point shooters for OKC last year. Yeah. And I don't see why he wouldn't want to keep that going this season. And I think Vogel can use him that way.

Because he got to shoot wide-open threes because he had Kevin Durant and Russ Westbrook on his team? Who's getting him the threes this year? Is he shooting those with a hand in his face? I'm not buying it. Yeah, but he's a big guy. It's not a huge over. It's a slight over for Orlando for me.

That team needs to make a trade is what they need to do. They remind me of Philly a little bit. They have too many guys clogged in the wrong spots. I like them at 38, that's all. I'd like to apologize. Three games better than last season. I'd like to apologize to Mike Mendelsohn for telling him to buy Alfred Payton rookie cards two years ago. Hopefully he kept them and maybe he'll pan out.

What does Kevin Clark think about Orlando this year? He's in full snark mode. Very, very snarky. So you're taking the under and I'm taking the over? Yes. Philadelphia, the over-under is 25, which I kept looking at thinking that my eyesight was going because I just fixed my eyesight.

I actually have good eyesight again. It's 25. I can't figure it out. Ben Simmons is probably, you know, they're claiming he's back in three months. But if this team has a chance to tank again, you know they're going to do it. I love what I've seen from Embiid. We have no idea if he can play more than 20 minutes a game and how he's going to even get the ball.

Can't shoot. Sarge, I like. They have guys I like. I like. Sergio Rodriguez was pretty good in the Olympics. Like, maybe he'll help. Pretty good. I just don't understand how they get to 26 wins.

I'm going under. Me too. And I don't think they want to get to 26 wins. Right. They're not intended to do. Yeah. This is. The process has led to the Ben Simmons broken foot, followed by one more tank job to get

the full four years in. And then they can go for it. So I think they go under. Toronto is over under 50. They lost Biambo. They lost Luis Scola. They added Jaron Seliger. That's about it.

50 seems right around where I see them this year. I went just a hair over, like a whisker. I'm doing the same thing. I don't want to talk about it. I just don't want to take on the T-dot. Yeah, yeah. An incredible, incredible 56. I was one of the ones when I'm going through the prep earlier today.

56 wins for the TDOT last year. They're not going to be seven games worse, you know, this coming year. 51 seems fair. The conference itself, I think, collectively is a little bit better. I think that would be the only difference. A little bit like what happened last year in the West, where somebody's got to lose a couple wins because these other teams are going to have more

wins. The other thing is, are you worried about DeRozan getting paid? Yeah, and Lowry making $12 million, and DeRozan's making $25 million. I mean, Lowry's going to get paid in a year, but one of these teams is going to get screwed up by that.

And I think we've arrived at the team it's going to be. Oh, it's the Washington Wizards. No, how dare you? 42 and a half. Oh, no. Under. Feud. Feuding.

I won't stand for it. Feuding. There's no feud. Those guys love each other. No, they don't. They definitely don't and and bradley biel is is going to make 50 million more dollars over the next few years playing basketball than john wall and they're no there's no way john wall doesn't think about this every time he looks at

bradley biel i know he does i'm positive they're gonna make wall's gonna make all that money back in in a very short two years he's gonna have a have a contract that dwarfs what Bradley Beal is on because the cap keeps going up, and Wall's going to make the All-Star team two more years. You're asking this Washington team to win two more games to get to the over. That's a Scotty Brooks-led. Nene is gone. A lot of dead weight off of this team.

I like the over quite a bit for this Washington team. I like them really around 44 wins. And, in fact, this, in the way that you made Boston a lock, this is one of my locks. I like the over so much I'm calling it a lock for the Washington professional basketball franchise. You should have made it a Callaway par-3 lock since it's going to lose. House, before we do Western Conference over-unders, let's talk about Blue Apron.

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Oh, I love that one. Thai green curry chicken and squash with Yuchoi, jasmine rice, and cashews. Yuchoi? I don't know what that is. I'm not familiar with Yuchoi. Roasted pork steam buns with black garlic mayonnaise and spicy cabbage slaw. You need that.

How about this? Yeah. I've taken a run with the Blue Apron. I love the Blue Apron. Oh, there you go. Sending us ingredients in exactly the right quantity

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A better way to cook. And now, as promised, the Western Conference over-unders. All right, let's go to the Western Conference. I think we can bang this out. I think this can be a 90-minute podcast. Dallas is 40. They basically turned Chandler Parsons into Harrison Barnes. They, on the down low, lost Ray Felton,

who I thought was pretty good for them last year. Turned him into Seth Curry. And they upgraded from Zaza to the one and only Andrew Bogut, who I think is going to be very motivated this year. And they paid Dirk. Just out of respect, I'm going over. Just out of pure respect and appreciation. I feel the exact same way.

I'm not prepared to downgrade them. I'm not going to say that they're going to lose less games. That performance last year that Carlisle and Dirk cobbled together and getting to the playoffs was just masterful. I want to reward them with an over-selection, and that's what I'm going to do. Great. I have them in the mix for that last week when there's all these teams going for the 6th, 7th, and 8th seed, and they'll be in there.

Denver is 37. I do not think they're a playoff team. I do think they're going to be a little bit better than people realize, and I think they have some major league pass potential where they have just a bunch of fun guys in the team, and you'll be watching like a Denver-Minnesota game, and at the third quarter, Towns will have 30 points and 17 rebounds. And Moody A will be hot, and Moody will have 38 points or whatever.

And I think people are going to just repeatedly go, oh, Denver, pretty, fairly entertaining. With that said, I see them at 38, so maybe a hair over. I'm going slightly, tad over. Yeah, I'm taking the over as well. I'm impressed by the collection of talent. I like Jokic. 25 he dropped on our U.S. squad. Yeah, he looked good.

Yeah, he did look good. The thing always with them, can they stay healthy? I mean, we had Wilson Chandler miss an entire season last year because of hip surgery. But, you know, coming off the bench with Will Barton and Nurkic, that's a pretty good bench team. I mean, you know, they have a lot of guys that can play. The big question is Moutier. What kind of leap can he make from last season? Because he really was not good last season.

But I think they're around a 41 team. I like the over. I like that they're a little feisty too. Some of those non-Americans they have have a little edge to them. A little something something. Nerkic. Nerkic will get in that edge. Nerkic will kill a guy.

He'll kill somebody right now. Just ask him. They also have Gallinari who's an expiring contract, who I think is going to be a really, really, really under-the-radar sneaky trade piece in February. A nice asset for somebody. Yeah, I mean, that's somebody for the Celtics. I like Jarebko. God bless the Swedish Larry Bird, but if you could turn him into Gallinari, I'm doing that.

Golden State, 66.5. We discussed this when we did our preliminary appetizer drive-through of the over-unders. It just seems too low. Somebody has to beat this team 16 times. Seems like a lot. I think the safe bet's over. I have them comfortably in the 69 range. All jokes aside, 69 and 13 my big fear after seeing the the video

of durant and draymond at the travis scott show which vince staples and i watched in his dressing room on tuesday and vince was like oh yeah katie's gonna enjoy the bay uh that worried me a little bit draymond maybe taking KD under his wing and KD almost like being the boy in the plastic bubble who got out of the bubble and it's like look they're trees oh look at this and all of a sudden he's going to concerts

five nights a week that's really my only fear other than injuries but any team could have injuries I am going over over I am going over as well. I like them at the round. I know why you took the magical 69.

I think they're fine at 68 and 14. That's an over as well. And the preseason has been so confirmatory. I mean, I understand how stupid it is to talk about the eye test, but holy shit do my eyes enjoy watching them get together and play basketball. It's so smooth. It hasn't looked like KD has even broken a sweat. He just fits in to me seamlessly, and the interchangeable parts,

and Zaza looks like a great addition already. I just, you know, we don't need to overdo it. I like McCaw. McCaw's jumped out at me and I never watched preseason, but I've been sucked into their preseasons and they would have been raving about McCaw. And I know people have written about him online. I'm not breaking new ground. I just like him. I think he's going to be able to play for them and just watching them. And you see Duran on that team and it's like they took Barnes and it's,

it's like the Westworld. They put him in the Westworld warehouse and they reprogrammed him and made him taller and gave him just completely better basketball skills and then they pulled him naked out of the Westworld warehouse again and put him back on the court. It was just way better. That's Duran.

Oh my goodness. Over Houston, 44. We made the case passionately a couple weeks ago for James Harden's MVP candidacy, and it dropped to 8-1. So congratulations to us. They added Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon from the 2015 champion New Orleans Pelicans. Oh, wait, that team was terrible.

They also added Nene, who you hate his guts. I was thinking Locke two weeks ago, but as I kept staring at those names and thinking of just all the stink they have on them from all the losses from the last couple years, I got a little scared. So I'm not going to make it a Locke. But you are taking the over. I'm taking the over. I think they go 45 and 37.

I'm taking the over as well. One the over. I think they go 45 and 37. I'm taking the over as well. One name you didn't mention as an addition, they added James Harden. Welcome back to the Rockets, James Harden. After the season, the mail-in season last year and the incredible dysfunction, I didn't get a chance to listen to all of it, but I heard enough of Chris Vernon's excellent sit-down with Darryl Morey this week on the Ringer NBA podcast. Nice. And, you know, I think this team has a synergy and energy that was so complete.

They just did not like playing together last year. Yeah. And they had an identity crisis, and I don't think this team is going to have that. And Coach D is the perfect facilitator for these guys on a chuck and run. I love them at the over. I understand we're not going to make them a lock, but we're in agreement that that's an over. I love them offensively.

I think we make the mistake sometimes with basketball to just look at them as fantasy teams. And unfortunately, the other side of the court is you have to actually stop the other team from scoring. And that's when I look at this Rockets team. The defense really scares me, especially if Beverly is banged up for this whole season. But man, it's like you got Harden out there. You got Ryan Anderson, who couldn't guard me.

Eric Gordon, who's going to be hurt almost immediately. Nene, you watched him play defense. How was that for you? No, I didn't watch him play any defense. Let's correct that. He didn't play any defense. The thing is, if you're going to have a game where you put up a team that's just going to try and outscore everybody,

I like what Houston's put together. Yeah, they're a nice old-school Western Conference team. try and outscore everybody. I like what Houston's put together. Yeah. They're a nice, old-school Western Conference team, and I think they win 45 or 46 games. I'm going over it. It's not quite a lock for me because of the defensive concerns because they might just be an absolute dumpster fire defensively, and that might erase all the fun offensive stuff.

The Clippers are 54, and it seems low. dumpster fire defensively and that might erase all the fun offensive stuff the clippers clippers are 54 and it seems low find it hard to believe this team's not going to go 55 and 27 they're bringing everybody back i actually you know the ray felton edition i like i like the thought of ray felton and austin rivers don't laugh coming off the bench as a backcourt. I think they're a little deeper than they were. They still have the issue of they just can never find that. Now it's Wesley Johnson and Luke Mababute, all these dudes. They've just never found the right fifth wheel for this team.

But, man, a lot of talent. And it's weird. I actually think they're undervalued right now. I think people are just – Vegas obviously doesn't think they're undervalued. They have the 20-to-1 odds. They're a top-five team, according to Vegas. Can I take them at exactly 54? Is that not permitted?

You can. It's ballsy. That's what I want to do. You're taking me over. I'm taking them at exactly 54. All right. Push. I like bringing them back. You know what's funny? I think Cole Aldrich'm taking them at exactly 54. All right, push. I like bringing in Bass, too.

You know what's funny? I think Cole Aldridge leaving hurts them a little bit. It does. You're 100% right. Spates will add a little flavor to the Warriors games because I think he's a little bitter about how it went out, and he claimed he didn't say those quotes in that ESPN.com thing. But I think those Warriors Clips games are going to have just a phenomenal edge to them.

And there's real dislike and disdain all the way around. And it gets worse every year. And just disdain for Doc Rivers, I think, in general, who I think is quietly becoming somebody that around the league people complain about a lot. I'll let you go first on this one. I want to make a quick observation. In the Western Conference so far, we have not picked a single under. Oh, I'm aware. Don't worry.

You've gone over on every team. All right, we're to the Lakers. You're letting me go first. I'm taking a slight under, but I'm really going to enjoy watching this Lakers team. I liked that game last night. Did you watch any of that? I saw some of it, yeah.

Oh, you did get to see some of it. Good. I mean, the show was on, I know, so I don't want to confess that I didn't catch all of your show because I was watching seven different other things. I can't wait to catch up on it and get, get it in its entirety. Listen, as long as people watch the show, if they want to watch the baby Lakers and watch my show after, that's fine. I'm not going to take that personally.

I am now at the point with Brandon Ingram that as much as I've enjoyed Jalen Brown and I like Jalen Brown, I'm pro Jalen Brown. The Brandon Ingram thing has the potential to really hurt. That guy might have a chance to be special. And I have a little surprise for you. I'm going over

on the... I'm going over on the Baby Lakers. Listen, I mapped this out. I have more unders than overs in the Western Conference. Just for some reason, I have six overs in a row. I like the Baby Lakers. I like Russell. I think Luke Walton's going to be good. I think the crowd is going to come out of its Scientology Kobe Hayes and be like, oh, wow.

Young basketball players having fun and not just standing around and watching somebody go one on four. Joe Fuentes right now is looking at me and laughing because deep down he's drinking the Kobe Kool-Aid. But he knows deep down the baby Lakers are going to be more fun to watch. All the Laker fans deep down know it. They just don't want to admit it yet. And I like the baby Lakers. I think they're going to go like 28-54. I'm taking them at 25, which is the under,

which is still an enormous improvement over last year, and I think they could be a league pass team, right? Oh, 1,000%. I like watching. I mean, D'Angelo I think they could be a league pass team, right? Oh, a thousand percent. I mean, D'Angelo Russell is going to be a monster. I liked watching D'Angelo Russell last year when he was like a pariah. When Kobe got hurt, D'Angelo Russell had a four or five week stretch where it was like, wow, this guy. Remember, we thought he was going to be just a complete bust

after a month and a half. He looked terrible. Then something, you know, he got his sea legs. I think he was... I mean, Byron Scott actively undermined him. So I didn't attribute any of that early season poor performance to D. I would say his poor social media skills undermined him, too. That was an issue.

Memphis, I have a hardy and hellacious under there are there over under is 44 and i just don't think chandler parsons is going to be able to get through a season anymore i don't trust the gasol the foot thing i think the west in general is just better i think the league is better zebo in a contract year making 10 million when conley's making $26. Tony Allen. It feels like a team that's just been together for a little bit too long. I'm happy to be wrong. Shout-out to Memphis. Shout-out to Chris Vernon.

If I'm wrong, I'll admit it. I'll nod and tip my hat. But somebody's got to fall out of the West, and I think this is the team. So it's the grit and grind. I hate going against the grit and grind. They have that same core, Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Zeebo, Chandler Parsons coming back. Every year.

43 seems like the right number. They won 42 last year, and 43 is right there, and that's still under. Every year the league grows away from grit and grind just a little bit. I really like Dave Yeager. I don't know if Fizdale's good or not. I know he got a lot of great hires on Twitter. A lot of great hires for Fizdale. Great hire.

Great hire. Great hire. Great hire for Memphis for Fizdale. Great hire. Great hire. Great hire. Great hire for Memphis, for Fizdale. Great hire. I'll be honest. I have Minnesota taking their spot. Minnesota, the over is 42.5. I'm going over. I have it as

a lock. I would go over if it was 44. I like the Chris Dunn addition. I like the fact that they have a trade chip in Rubio that they're not going to trade because they're going to realize it's nice to have two point guards the way the league is going where you have all these different teams that can play two or three guards at the same time. Actually, not a bad thing to have Ricky Rubio and Chris Dunn and Wiggins because you play a team like Boston,

and Boston throws out Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas, and Avery Bradley. Like, okay, great. Here's Rubio, Chris Dunn, and Wiggins. I just like the team, and I love Tibbs. I feel the same way about Tibbs that I felt about Steve Kerr two years ago. I don't think people understand what kind of impact he's going to have. The guy is wired to win. We are

in violent agreement. This is going to be a lock for both of us. I love this Minnesota team. I think they're perfectly positioned for the current iteration of the NBA. The way the league is a way to be successful in the league. They have all of the pieces iteration of the NBA, the way the league is, you know, a way to be successful in the league. They have all of the pieces, with the exception of Ricky Rubio,

who, as you just observed, is a very good trade candidate, and I don't believe that he'll be on the team by the end of the year. You're probably right. 46-win team, 46 I like for the Minnesota T-Wolves, a lock for Joe House and Bill Simmons. The other thing with them, they added two guys that I've always liked, and you mentioned one of them, Aldridge,

was good for the Clippers last year. He was a very effective backup center. They also added Jordan Hill, who is going to go down in history as the guy that the Knicks ended up with instead of Steph Curry, and rightly so, because that's how every Knicks fan looks at him and just sees Steph Curry sailing away on a parachute.

But Jordan Hill is sometimes, he's effective. I like Jordan Hill. He's a good guy to have come off the bench. They basically added three bench pieces and didn't lose anything. They lost KG, who was done. And then you have Towns

in year two just ready to spread his wings. And I like Wiggins, too. I think Tibbs is going to have a dramatic effect on Wiggins. And Dunn is hungry. I think Dunn's going to be better more quickly than people realize. So, over. Emphatically. New Orleans I have as under.

36 and a half. I was surprised that it was that high. Didn't expect it. They lost Anderson and Gordon. They added Buddy Heald. And then they added a bunch of kind of flyers. Solomon Hill, Terrence Jones, Etuan Moore, Lance Stevenson. I just don't see it. And that's before we get into the whole Anthony Davis injury history thing and whether he can even stay on the

court for 70 games. There has to be bad teams in the West. Everybody can't be a good team. Somebody's got to be a punching bag. There's going to be four or five punching bags and this feels like one of them. I'm going under. So the problem for me is Tyreek injured

not back until maybe Christmas time. Is that the deal? I wasn't even thinking about him anymore. I wrote him off. Yeah, I sent him packing. A new holiday. You know, we're obviously rooting. Well, we want, you know, to root for the best.

It's a malignant, I mean, not malignant, benign tumor for his wife. And that will work out, right? Because, you know, he's a good guy and deserved it to work out. But the in and out, the too many moving parts and moving pieces and that injury history that you pointed out with John Schumann, who put that up on Anthony Davis. My boy's shoe. Yeah, your boy's shoe.

I just can't get over that. And they should be better. They should have 37 wins. I just don't see it. So we're both on the under for the New Orleans Pelicans. I played pickup with Shue a few times when I was completely washed up. At the very end, when I was in my 2015 Kobe season. Nice little Darren Williams type physical point guard game.

I can see it. He's built that way. Yeah, just good. Like just kind of bounces off you and gets to his spots. Enjoy them. Shout out to Shu. Oklahoma City. Actually, let's save Oklahoma City for the last one because I think that's going to be the most controversial.

Phoenix. Right. Phoenix over under 29. I just under. I just think this is one of our tanking candidates this year, and they should. They added Bender and they added Chris. They have Devin Booker. They've got to figure out the Devin Booker, Bledsoe, Brandon Knight situation.

They've got to turn the team over to Booker. I don't like the pieces together, but I like the pieces, and this will be the transition year when they figure it out. And they're in a tough conference, and they're going to get their asses kicked. Yeah, 28 wins seems fine. That's still five games better than last season. And there isn't anything about what they did in the offseason that suggests they're going to make a huge leap.

And they're not built to make a huge leap. It doesn't make sense for them to make a leap. They should do what you just described, which is turn the team over, go ahead and get prepared for the next draft pick. I'm not sure I'm in on Earl Watson. Do you have a point of view on Earl Watson?

Out? Under it is! Yeah, and we didn't even mention they lost Toledovic, who actually gave them some shooting. I think they're the worst team in the West. If I had to pick a team that's going to bring up the rear, I would have Phoenix. I have them at 23 wins.

No offense, Phoenix. No offense to any of these teams, except the Lakers. I don't have them worse than the Lakers. I think the Lakers are the worst in the West. You know what's really funny is when people realize in February that I was just completely reverse jinxing Miami. Portland.

Portland, 45 and a half. I have a knee-jerk reaction. Anytime you say Portland, the answer has to be over. Who wants to take on the soccer mob? I'm going under. I'll take them on again.

Bring your bullets. Bring your bow and arrows. 46 is all that's required, and that's just two games better than last season. And I think that's fine. I have them. I have a top five. I have a top four. I have them. I have a top five.

I have a top four. I have Golden State, Clips, San Antonio, and then OKC in Houston. And then after that, I have Utah, Minnesota, Portland, and Dallas in a scramble for those six, seven, eight spots. And I think they all have around the same record. I just have Portland, Pennsylvania in 43 or 44 wins. think their hair short I do like under over all right so you're going over I like uh yeah I like Evan Turner on this team I do think he's gonna miss Brad Stevens I think Azili I think from everything I've heard his knees are shot and I'm not going to expect much from him. Yeah, I mean, we'll see. At least he got paid a little bit.

I thought he was breaking down physically last year, but we'll see. Under, Sacramento, 32.5. Discuss. You're taking the under? Yes, sir. I'm taking the over. This is two pieces to it. I think Coach Jaeger is capable of delivering at least the same record as last year.

The obvious problem with this team is who is playing point guard. We still don't have an answer to that. But it's worse than that. It's worse than that. It's not just the point guard where people always get trapped by positions too much what you need is somebody who when the ball goes over midcourt somebody who's going to create a decision who's going to say all right i'm going to do this or i'm going to drive into the lane and kick it out or i'm going to get to the basket

or i'm going to set this guy up or oh boogie hasn't had a shot in a while it's it's a centrifugal force and that's what they don't have. And the way the league is built right now, especially how guard-dependent it is, to just throw away that position is insane. It's flat-out insane. And that's before we get to the part where you've got to make Boogie happy. Not only did they lose Rondo, but they also lost Seth Curry,

who was a guy who had kind of come on near the end. I actually like Seth Curry. And then also Bellinelli, who is somebody that if you watch them, is somebody that in the last five minutes of a game could get the ball and do some stuff. It's a team that doesn't make sense to me the way they're presently constructed, but we've been saying that about Sacramento for five years. The Ty Lawson thing, that guy's done.

That's a waste. It's just a wasted, to go down that road and waste the coaching time on him doesn't make sense to me. And people have to be bad. Boogie's going to probably push out for a trade in January, February, if he's not happy. So I'm going under. Yeah, I think that they have a bunch of professional basketball players on the team

just through the sheer passage of time now adding on adding in matt barnes and aaron aflalo and ty lawson those guys have anthony tolliver uh garrett temple even those guys all have played they're all guys have been in the league uh and i just think ty? Ty Lawson? What do you mean? Did you just use the word professional and Ty Lawson in the same sentence? You just did that? He's been in the league. This is, you know, I think 33 is a good number. I'm taking the over for that. Dumbass.

I'm going to go Locke. Locke in the under. You're going Locke, okay. Needed to do a Locke. He's due for a Locke. I'm done. Spurs. Spurs 57. Wow, they lost. Needed to do a lock. He's due for a lock. I'm done. Spurs. Spurs 57.

Wow, they lost Diao, Tim A, David West, Kevin Martin, and Boban. And they added basically Powell and Deontay Murray, who probably won't even play. I still think they won 67 games last year. The overrunner's 57. Out of respect, I'm going over. Just out of respect. Me too. Out of respect.

They have a terrific streak of overs over the last handful of years. There's only been one season where they haven't hit the over. I don't remember what it's been each year, but I'm taking over out of respect as well. Okay. Utah. The lock? Nah.

Okay. I don't like the LaMarcus Aldridge whispering that's going on right now. Because it was going on last year too, and it's still going, and it makes me nervous. Utah. All right. Under 47. That's what I have.

I see the case. I get it. They added D.L. They added George Hill. I see the case. I get it. They added D.L. They added George Hill. They added Joe Johnson. I get it. I get the whole thing. The issue for me is there's just five other teams in the West that I like a little bit more.

So I have them, you know, 43 to 45 wins somewhere in there. I don't see them climbing over 47. Safe bet under. And I don't like the fact that they don't have a – I'm still not sold on who their crunch time guy is. I still don't understand where they go in the last three minutes. Is it George Hill? Is that what I'm signing up for?

He makes open threes. I have been critical of George Hill before. I didn't think that his addition to this team was going to be so earth-shattering. They had their point differential last season had them at an implied 46 wins. If I'm looking at the correlated Gaussian winning percentage correctly, I'm not sure if I am. And so they went through pretty heavy injury outside of— I get it. I get the whole case.

I'm not too impressed with George Hill. He's fine. He's like a tweener. He's a starter. Not really, but he's better than a backup. Dia was basically buried last year by the Spurs. I don't think they shed—they had a great run with him, but I don't think they were shedding major tears letting him go.

And Joe Johnson got bought out by Brooklyn. And then everybody kind of looked at each other. And Miami signed him. He had some moments. He played pretty well for them. I don't think he's like the difference. He's not the guy that takes you to 48 and 34. I just think it seems a tad too high.

I'm going to go under also. I like him at 46. We're in agreement on under. Alright, last one. OKC, 45. They added Victor Oladipo, Sabonis' son, Ilyasova.

They lost Serge Ibaka, Dion Waiters, and either the second or third best player in the league, Kevin Durant. That's a problem. It could be a problem. What do you have? I don't know what to think about them.

I'm utterly confounded by them. I think they're going to win more than 45 games. I'm going to select the over for them, but I need to watch them play. I need to figure out what the hell they're going to do. I respect Billy Donovan quite a bit. He really turned around my opinion of him as the season went along and as the team kind of came together right at playoff time. They lost one too many games in the fourth quarter of the second half of the season.

In fact, they really cost me on a wonderful parlay I had of Golden State and Oklahoma City. God, they were poised to win that thing. But I kind of love the nobody believes in us angle to this team. And I think Donovan is the right guy to guide them. And I love the idea of Westbrook with a chip on his shoulder. So I'm going to take the over. Well, Westbrook always has a chip on his shoulder. I'm tired of hearing the narrative.

He's got two chips. I said that on my show yesterday at events. There's no other gear for Westbrook. He's already in fifth gear. You can't go to sixth gear. There is no sixth gear. I'm going over because I still think this is a pretty good basketball team. I was worried about the shooting, and I'm still worried about the shooting,

but I think they're going to be able to play Adams and Cantor together a lot, and I think they're going to be really good on the offensive boards. I like the Oladipo, Westbrook, Roberson, the perimeter defense. They're going to have issues stopping the 6'8 guys, but most teams have issues stopping that. They have some trade flexibility. Westbro's i don't know he'll be somewhere between the second and fifth best player in the league this year and an unquestionable mvp candidate and they're never gonna let up they're always gonna play hard which is another thing you gotta look at with the regular season like This team's not going to be like, ah, we're not trying

tonight. Westbrook's not wired that way. So 45 seemed a little low, and I like the over. Yeah, the thing especially that you just said that resonates, and the guy that I think is going to have the biggest impact on is Oladipo. I think that the way that they're poised to play, and

Westbrook in particular, the impact he's going to have on Oladipo. Oladipo is already an extremely above-average defender. They might be, you know, we're worried about all the wingspan that they lost with Ibaka and KD gone, but they still have a quickness. They still have rim protectors, and they have a quickness with Oladipo and Westbrook out front. So I'm not prepared to call it a lock,

but I'm really interested in watching this team this year. I think that they have an identity, and they're tough. And they're going to play hard and give a shit, and he's going to be a man possessed. Initially I was thinking, oh, you know, they went 15 and 12 when Durant broke his foot that time and Westbrook was just a one-man show. Well, 15 and 12 is 45 and 36

if you multiply it by three. It puts them over that over-under. So I think they're going to get there. Let's make it a lock. Do you want to make it a lock? All right. I needed a seventh lock, so I'm happy to do it. Yeah, we need an odd number of locks okay so let's recap because i have all my locks and i don't know if i have uh my locks are

the celtics 52 and a half over the cleveland cavaliers 57 over we were in agreement on that indiana pacers 45 and a half over you're also in agreement on that. Indiana Pacers, 45.5. Over. You're also in agreement on that. Yeah. You have the Wizards, 42.5. I do. Over.

I have them under. Do we both have Golden State over 66.5? We do, right? We do. Were we going to call it a lock? I'm calling it a lock. Okay, I'll call it a lock i'm calling a lock okay i'll call it a lock um and then we have i have the under for the pelicans 36 and a half as a lock you want to join me in there yeah oh the pelicans yeah i mean it's 36 and a half

uh i'll join you in that. Tate wanted you to know that Tim Frazier is going to be their starting point guard to start this season. Oklahoma City over lock 45. We both have that. I have Sacramento 32 and a half under

as a lock, so you need one more lock. I miss Timberwolves. Oh, we have the Timberwolves. Oh, crap. That's too many. How many locks? We had Timberwolves 42.5, both over. I want out on the Pelicans lock. I don't want that. I just want that to be a regular

under. I'm rooting for Anthony Davis. Alright, I'm going to get out on that one, too. So we'll go Kings under, Thunder over, T-Wolves over. That's you. I'm on the over for the Kings. I'm not on the under for the Kings.

Yeah, me. You need one more, though. One more lock? Yeah, you veered away with me on the Wizards, but you still need one more. My one more is San Antonio. Okay. The over for San Antonio. Great.

All right. I'll put these on my Facebook page. And by the way, we're going to be doing, every Friday we're going to do, or Thursday, whenever we tape these, the end of the week, we're going to be doing the Callaway Par 3, and then we're going to dive over into some NBA.

So if you have NBA questions for us, I was thinking it would be fun to put a little mailbag at the end that we could do for Lombardi and house. So if you have questions for us, go to the iTunes account that we have for the BS podcast and you can put where you put the reviews, just put questions there. Cause that's the easiest way for all of us to see it.

And, uh, and we will answer those questions on this podcast next week. House. It was magical. It was magical. We did it. That next week. House, it was magical. We got through it. That's spectacular. Joe's upset that the pod is probably like

100 minutes long, which isn't great, but it's once a year. What can we do? We banged it out. It's over. It's over under Christmas. We did it. Alright, House, thanks to stamps.com. Stop relying on the post office. Buy and print. Officially US posted. Use your own computer and printer. Sign up for stamps.com. Stop relying on the post office. Buy and print official U.S. postage using your own computer and printer. Sign up for stamps.com.

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Apply online. Get a decision in minutes at cabbage.com slash business. And get a $50 gift card when you qualify. That is cabbage with a K. Don't forget about any given Wednesday of this week's show at Bob Costas, Al Michaels, and Vince Staples. Catch the Rears this week on HBO and HBO Go. Don't forget about TheRinger.com, a mammoth NBA preview going on sources say i might write a column next week don't forget about all the other yeah sources say don't forget about all the other podcasts in the ringer network

and don't forget about what's the name of your golf podcast called house how dare you i'm setting you up and uh you are you were setting me up. There's going to be some content where Jeff Shackelford and I are going to be at the Links at Petco Park. Nine-hole conversion of the San Diego Padres baseball stadium. We'll be shooting with Callaway, and some Ringer folks are going to be down, I believe. So keep on the lookout. Online. We'll post it.

Links at Petco Park in three weeks. Excellent. All right, House. We will talk to you next week. Anytime y'all want to see me again, rewind this track right here, close your eyes, and picture me rolling.