The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 148: Friday Rollin' With Mike Lombardi, Joe House, Robert Mays, and Danny Kelly

Episode Date: December 2, 2016

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons brings on FS1's Mike Lombardi to somberly discuss Gronk's season-ending injury and where the Patriots go from here (6:00). Joe House hops on the line to talk Tiger's return (20:00) and give out the best three bets for Week 13 (27:00). Then Ringer NFL writers Robert Mays and Danny Kelly join to discuss NFL futures and the best-case scenario for playoff matchups (41:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the BS Podcast is brought to you by SeatGeek. That's our presenting sponsor and the only fan-friendly app for buying and selling tickets for sports and music. Drop your old ticket app. Use one built for 2017 and beyond. You can even do everything on your phone. Download the free SeatGeek app or go to SeatGeek.com. Today's episode also brought to you by Stamps.com.

You got to avoid the post office during the holidays. Why not buy and print official u.s postage with your own computer and printer go to stamps.com click on the microphone at the top of the home page type in bs you get a four-week trial plus a 110 bonus offer that includes postage and a digital scale stamps.com promo code bs we're also brought to you by TheRinger.com. I had a big piece on The Ringer this week with Malcolm Gladwell about the future of football. We put that up on Thursday. Check it out if you haven't read it.

It's a 34-minute read according to Medium. I broke the record for The Ringer. I was really excited about that. Although I probably had the highest odds to break the record for longest read on The Ringer. Anyway, check that out, theringer.com. We have a big football show today. We have Mike Lombardi. We have Joe House doing the Callaway Part 3.

And then we have Robert Mays and Danny Kelly from The Ringer talking football futures. Let's do it. Here we go, Joe. All right, from Fox and FS1, our old friend Mike Lombardi. A sad week for the Patriots. Gronk is hurt yet again. There was an article on ESPN.com today that listed all the injuries he's had since 2010.

And it was like 1,200 words long. And I was depressed. How many? He's had three back surgeries. Now he has a blown out ACL that, that was repaired. He broke his forearm twice. He had a really bad high ankle sprain.

At what point do I just start thinking that we, we are done with the prime of Rob Gronkowski? Well, I mean, his durability question marks are obviously going to stand out. Look, he's hard to officiate, he's hard to play against, and he's hard to do a contract for because as great as he is, his numbers are off the charts, but the durability plays into a factor here. And so all those things translate into how do you pay him the amount of money

that he always thinks he's worth, which he is worth. You know, he's one of the best players in the league. He's what I call a Tuesday player, which is every Tuesday, a defensive coordinator of the opponent playing the Patriots is worried about Gronk. Tuesday players go to the Hall of Fame. Tuesday players make you adjust your defense. Now, what I'd like you to do is throw away all those stats you have that Tate gave you about the Patriots without Gronk, because they're not realistic any longer. The Patriots have another tight end, Martellus Bennett. All those stats

are reflective of when they didn't have a tight end, when they had no one else. Then that's when the offense becomes really difficult to move the ball effectively. I think they'll move the ball, they just don't have their Tuesday player, and they're going to have to. They're used to, as all those injuries have cited,

they're used to playing without him, but this is the first time they've ever had a tight end who can play in a game, who can do all the things that Gronk can do. Maybe not as well as Gronk, not to the level of Gronk, but he can at least let them run their offense. Gronk is special. Gronk was the game changer. It's the equivalent of the Niners in the 80s without Jerry Rice or the 2000 Vikings without Randy Moss.

I mean, that's how I feel about it. We can cover it up all we want. I agree, Bennett is the best backup tight end they've ever had. I also think they showed in the Jets game that when they put White and Lewis in the backfield together with the three wide receiver shotgun, that's going to be really effective, and I'm sure we're going to see a ton of it.

But Gronk was the guy that everybody planned for every week. And forget about this season for a second because I don't think this defense was good enough to win the Super Bowl. I think they could have, but I just don't think it was a very good bet. I'm just sad as a football fan. I loved watching Gronk.

I don't think there was anything more exciting than him getting split out against a linebacker or him around the end zone or him just going across the middle and guys bouncing off him. And it always felt like there was a shelf life with this because, as you said, he was officiated differently, guys diving at his knees.

He just seemed to take more big hits and weird falls and stupid injuries. And it was almost like the guy was jinxed to some degree. And, you know, you think like he had 68 touchdowns. He's 99th all time. And yet you look at his career stats and he really only played three full seasons. I don't know. I'm just sad.

Is it okay to be sad about this? Yeah, you know, it is. And I mean, look, I'm not trying to make it all better and take a spoonful of Martellus Bennett and the pain is going to go away. It's not. I think most effectively the red area is going to be the place where the missing Gronk is certainly the one you can't duplicate. But look, when you're in the NFL and you've dealt with a player, and look, Gronk's history goes back to the University of Arizona, his injury history. You've got to get used to, they're used to him not being there.

I mean, it's hard to say, it's hard to deal with, but they have to find another way. The other factor that I think people are missing, and I think it was on display in full force at the Jet game, was the offensive line. I think Shaq Mason, their right guard, is having a Pro Bowl-style year. Their offensive line is playing way better this year than they have in the last three or four years. And they can run the football. Even at the end of games, when you know they're going to run it,

they're able to run the ball. I think that's something that'll help them. Now, losing Gronk, you're never going to replace him. That's impossible. But you have to other guys have to step up 5% better than what they've been playing. And if you can do that, then there's a chance you can get to the conference championship game and maybe

go to Super Bowl. You're no lock either way because, as you said, the defense has been a liability all season. Can you believe that? I mean, how many plays did Gronk and Bennett end up playing together this season? I bet it was less than half of a football game. We never really got to see it. Right.

He comes in, you know, the offseason, he missed the offseason training Gronk did with an injury. He missed the training camp with a hamstring. I mean, he's just not able to stay durable. And when he's great, when he's healthy and going, he's amazing. But there's been so often that he hasn't been. Can I defend one thing about Gronk, though? He has had some of the flukiest injuries I've ever seen with a Boston athlete. The only one I can compare it to is Cam Neely on the Bruins, where Cam Neely's career was completely derailed by a couple of just stupid hits,

both by Alf Samuelsson, ironically. But Gronk, the broken forearm, that could happen to anybody. TJ Ward diving at his knees when he's not looking, that takes out any player in the league. And that Jets thing yesterday, or Sunday, was just a really, really nasty, unorthodox fall that I can't – you know, he was selling all out to try to make a great play and he got hurt. I don't know if I would call him injury prone.

And I look at – I mean, you're a little bit older than me, but you're as big of a football fan. I think there's guys over the course of the league, these great players, that we just, you leave it going, man, I wish we had seen more of that guy. I think Gale Sayers was like that. Bo Jackson was obviously like that. Terrell Davis. And my fear is that Gronk is now on that list and that that's where we're headed with this. I mean, when you talk Boston athlete, to me, Bill Walton comes to mind

when you're talking about Gronk. That's another one. I mean, that's who I think, you know, because when you see the talent and you see what he does and he makes everybody else better on the field, you say, gosh, I wish we had him. But, look, I love Gronk, and I'm not here to sell that everything's going to be fine in Patriot land because Gronk's not there. I'm not.

I'm just, as an executive, you have to learn to move on. And, unfortunately, with Gronk, you've been forced to move on because his injury history. It's the reason he's drafted in the second round. It's the reason he's, you know, it's just never been able to stay 100% healthy. And, you know, and getting Bennett was to try to use less of Gronk. Extending everything the Patriots have done has tried to preserve the health of Gronk, flex him out, utilize him more as a wide receiver than in line, try to keep away from the traffic.

And yet he missed the four games to start the season. He missed the game with the rib, and now he's missed it with the back. So even when they try to keep him out of the clutter, he still ends up getting injured. So you have to move on. I'll tell you one thing. I think there's a couple of football players that jump out in my life. Taylor is the best pass rusher I've ever seen.

Gronk's the best tight end I've ever seen. Randy Moss is the best deep threat I've ever seen. It's a very short list when you're just talking about these. So-and-so is clearly the best I've seen. And that's going to end up being his legacy. I think he is easily the best tight end of all time. If you're talking about his ceiling, he's the best. You just named Tuesday players.

Those are the guys. When you get ready to play Lawrence Taylor, you're sitting there saying, you know what? We've got to block him. How do we block them? When you get ready to play the Gronk, you're asking yourself, how do we take them away from the game? What do we do if they do this? What do we do? You spend all of Tuesday trying to figure out what to do.

Now you spend all of Tuesday trying to solve the Patriots' offensive problems. And you live with the matchups. And like anything, if you take away a great player in basketball, it makes the other players have to step up and play. And I think that's where the challenge is going to be. The key here, and I'll say this again, their offensive line has to play to the level they've been playing for the first 11 weeks. If they do that and they continue to improve, I think they can make some strides. And the other problem for this team, which is a subtle one, but the Pats fans who watch this team day in and day out realize it like edelman's not the same this year he's been fine he's missing a level of explosiveness that he used to have

and the real problem with this offense now is they're not going to get deep plays unless malcolm mitchell can continue to evolve and that that, you know, I think he has 16 catches total, but he's somebody in that last game I felt like Brady was kind of looking to him for the first time. And he's somebody that they've never really had before. I hate to put the whole season on Malcolm Mitchell, but I do think he has to step up. And he's improving.

He has Brady's confidence. Brady only trusts certain players, and he trusts Malcolm Mitchell. When he throws the ball to you on third and down, and he throws a back shoulder like he did against the Jets, he trusts you. And that's critical. Now, Brady's got to get healthy. Brady wasn't healthy the whole Jet game. I mean, it was clear he was just grinding it out.

I mean, he overselled a lot of throws. But with Mitchell, and if you can put Hogan in the slot, which is really Hogan's a very good slot receiver, plus the Deion Lewis and the James White, they have some players. Look, it's not going to be pretty. It's not going to be perfect. They're going to go against some teams that can slow them down. But they have enough weapons to score into the high 20s.

That's what they need. Now, where it's going to show up? Red zone. Red zone is when you always were worried about Gronk. You've got to double him, keep him outside they flex him away. What they always did with Gronk was keep him away from the 3x1. So they put three receivers to one side, put Gronk to the other.

Now you had to tilt the defense to Gronk. Now you don't have to do that anymore and that'll become problematic. Can I ask you a question that's probably going to hurt my feelings? Yeah. I watched that Broncos-Chief game on Sunday night, and I felt like the physicality of the game, the speed of the game, and the hitting and everything was maybe at a higher level than this Patriots defense can go. What did you think? Oh, look, I don't think they – I think they'll rise to the challenge, hopefully.

But I thought they played better the last two weeks. But I think that Denver game was really a playoff atmosphere game. And if you're going to win in the playoffs, you're going to have to play like that. So I don't know if they're there yet, but they're going to have to play like that. That was – that's what the playoffs are about. It's toe-to-toe, punch-for-punch, can you handle it, and you've got to have enough to be able to handle the fourth quarter. What we're going to find out after Thanksgiving is conditioning matters. Conditioning of your football team really

matters. Pad level of your football team matters. And the good teams are well-conditioned and they matter. The Jets last week in the fourth quarter, they were dead. They had no conditioning. They were tired. And that's what it cost them the game. And I think this is where you have to find your conditioning and you've got to find your inner mental toughness. And I think the Patriots have a ways to go, no doubt, but it certainly could be there. Hey, is there a team that you feel like is coming on? A playoff team? Look, I think the Baltimore-Pittsburgh dynamic is going to go there. Look, Raider fans are all over me, and I said this on my podcast, but I think this is really important.

There's been no team in the last 15, there's been one team in the last 15 years that has reached a conference championship game with a bottom four defense. And that was the 2011 New England Patriots, which beat Tim Tebow in a divisional game and then beat the Ravens in the conference championship game because Lee Evans dropped the pass and Billy Cunningham missed the field. Yeah, we share the last second. Okay, so my point here is there's no history behind it. There's also no history behind teams going undefeated on the road.

There's been three teams in the last 25 years that have gone undefeated on the road. I think the Raiders have a really good team, but I think there's some liabilities with their defense that far extends past the Patriots' defense. And I think when you watch them, I think that becomes problematic. I think Pittsburgh and Baltimore are different in the sense Baltimore's defense is good, their offense stinks, Pittsburgh's offense is good, their defense stinks, but they're battle-tested. They know how to play. The wild card's the Chiefs. If the Chiefs go into Atlanta this week and they can win that game, which will be a hard game for them, coming off a five-quarter game against Denver,

both Denver gets Jacksonville, Kansas City gets Atlanta. And so we saw when Carolina and when we saw when Arizona and Seattle played five-quarters, both teams didn't play well the next week. So you've got to be careful, and I think what happens is that Atlanta is rested, ready to go. I think Kansas City, if they can win that game, then they're going to be a really hard team to beat in the playoffs, and I think that's the challenge that's going to be right there. Baltimore's defense gets Doomerville back,

and then they're getting Jimmy Smith back too within the next two weeks, right? And that defense was already good. I'm worried that they come into New England. They love playing New England. The games are always close. The Pats, I'm looking at the big picture here. If they lose the Baltimore game, which is possible, and they play in Denver, which they've had a lot of trouble,

that Week 17 game against Miami, even though they have a two-game lead right now, that game might actually mean something. I think the Baltimore-Miami game is a playoff game this weekend. Now, Miami has done an incredible job of turning their team around. They've gone from minus seven in the turnover takeaway to plus eight, and they've run the ball more. They've taken Tannehill out of the game. They're winning because it's less Tannehill, not because Tannehill's playing better.

And I think that their defense is the number one team on third down defense, so they're playing better there. So that game's going to, somebody's going to lose that game. The Patriots have lost two home games already, which is unheard of. Okay? I just don't know if they're going to lose another home game. I think they're going to get that fixed. And I think the one

thing when you lose Gronk, I think you rally the forces around and you become more about the team, and I think this is what you're going to see. Well And I think the one thing when you lose Gronk, I think you rally the forces around and you become more about the team, and I think this is what you're going to see. Well, I think Brandon Bolden and Danny Woodhead need to really step up for the Pats this week. Poor Jeff Fisher. Brandon and Danny.

I mean, oh my God. And they're probably going to give him an extension. They probably will. And look, people say, well, Goff's playing better. Look, Goff, give the Rams a little credit here. He's thrown 63 passes in his NFL career. 55 of them have been under shotgun. So at least they've put him in a situation.

But he's far from being a proven product. I mean, look, this game in New England is going to be a challenge because you can throw the ball in this Ram defense. This Ram defense is all about their front. If you block them, I think what we saw New Orleans do to them is pretty obvious. You can pass the ball effectively on them, and that's what's be a good challenge for the Patriots. Their offensive line matching up against this front, and can their receivers, which I think are getting better with Mitchell and Hogan and all the guys there. I agree with you on Edelman,

but he's starting to play better. I think that's where they have to win the game. Last question. Did Tampa Bay win you over in all these last two weeks? I went back and watched them again. I think you could make a highlight reel of Jameis Winston's interceptions that are dropped. I think they make a lot of mistakes, but their defense plays hard. I think their defensive front's playing better. Spence, McCoy, I think they're tough to block.

I think they're playing effectively. They're playing complementary. Their field goal kicker isn't killing them. I think if they had Justin Tucker, they probably would have had two more wins on their team. So I'm one over in the fact that they're playing better. I think the win in Kansas City was a great win because they didn't dominate in the red zone.

They had chances in the red zone, and they didn't put the game away. And then the Seattle game, I didn't see that one coming. Their defense played really well. I think their defense is playing much better. So I'm starting to buy into Tampa Bay. I think this week will be an interesting challenge for them. Are you worried that the Sam Bradford for our number one pick trade is going to trump the Trent Richardson for our number one pick trade

as the best one-sided deal of this decade? Because I think we're now in range. No, I think that Sam Bradford will eventually. If they could, look, two things have to happen in range. No, I think that Sam Bradford will eventually. If they could look, two things have to happen in Minnesota. Either they have to get a better offensive line or they're going to have to ask the defense to count to five Mississippi. Because that's the only chance

he has. Okay? And I think he's going to play in the league. When we traded Trent Richardson, there was no doubt for me that he wasn't going to be an NFL back after two years because he just wasn't fast enough. He just didn't have enough burst or enough explosiveness. Yeah. Okay. All right. So you're still ahead in the game. Mike Lombardi, you have to run. So we'll talk to you next week. I'm sad about Gronk. You didn't make me feel better, just for the

record. I feel exactly how I did 20 minutes ago. All right. Thanks, Bill. Bye, Mike. I'll talk to you soon. Bye-bye. Quick break to talk about FrameBridge. If you've ever seen anything we've done in my office for Facebook Live, you probably noticed how nice my posters looked. Our friends at FrameBridge framed everything in there. FrameBridge's experts custom frame your items in days,

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That is harrys.com code BS. All right. It's time for Joe House. Alright, every week Joe House and I do the Callaway Par 3. We make three picks. Yet last week we went 1-2 against the spread because even though I made the case for five solid minutes that the Washington Native

Americans were going to do a backdoor cover against Dallas, we still somehow ended up taking Dallas and losing that. We should have gone 2-1. And actually, the Vikings lost by half point. So I feel like we have a pretty good feel. Robert May is from the Ringers here. Hey, guys.

Danny Kelly is going to join us after House leaves. House, how are you? I'm outstanding. There's a guy out on a golf course right now. I don't know if you heard his name. I mean, I'm a little bit chagrined by our picks last week, but you know that Washington pick was one of my reverse jinx. I hate you.

You're not allowed to do Washington anymore. I just hate you. We're not doing Washington, probably par three. But not on the card. But look, everything's great because the Tiger is on the prowl. So life is good. Very quickly, let's talk about this because I watched like about seven holes yesterday. Maze, your whole life, how old are you, Maze?

I'm 29. Tiger's been part of your life basically your whole life, right? 96, 97. So I was probably 10 the first time he won a major. I mean, yeah, I don't know my existence without him being in it. Old guy Tiger was pretty disarming yesterday. He didn't have the same swivel in his hips, anything. Well, he's mature.

He's a maturing guy. I want to ask Maze, is that the first time you ever got a boner? It's definitely one of the first five. I'm not sure if I can say it's the first one. Okay, sure. I'll accept that. Yeah, no, I mean, he's definitely he's not the physical

beast Tiger Woods anymore, but I do feel like there was enough there, at least in what I saw, that we just want that one Saturday when he's at the Masters and he's two up on Saturday on the eighth hole. That's all I want. Or even two back. Just in it. I just want him to be around.

One weekend. Just one. Just give me one more time. U.S. Open, any of those things. He gave us a nice taste yesterday. He was four under through eight holes, tied atop the leaderboard. There was a lot of excitement on the Twitter.

But mainly, the important thing for this weekend is that he comes out on the other side of it healthy. And, you know, knock on wood, so far, the way his swing has looked, it's a little bit longer. There's been a lot of deep analysis. He's getting through his right side a little bit more efficiently. I don't know about all that stuff.

But we just want him, this is a perfect tune-up experience, limited field. Of course, he's very comfortable on, guys are going to score like crazy on it all weekend long. And, you know, the nicest thing about yesterday was he talked about how quickly he was in the flow of the round. He said by the second hole, he had that feel, and that hasn't been the case in any of his previous comebacks. So that's really all that we're after. Baby steps here. I would rank the comebacks I want the most.

Grok, number one, since that ruined my whole week. Tiger, two. And then, I don't even know who's three. Who would be three? Is there an NBA comeback I would want? George Foreman. George Foreman again. How's quickly, before we do Callaway Part 3,

do you care about Russell Westbrook's triple-double quest? Of course. What do you mean do I care about it? Of course I do. I care way more than I thought I would. Why are we calling it a quest, by the way? It's not a quest. He's just playing his ass off and helping his team win

games. And it just so happens that they need a triple-double out of him to be competitive. I'm not calling it a quest. I don't think he can get 10 rebounds a game for 82. I don't think it's realistic. That's going to be the hardest part. I just think the rebounds...

LeBron has never had 10 rebounds. LeBron is the most superhuman NBA player we've ever had. He's never had 10 rebounds a game. I feel like Russell Westbrook has that tinge of crazy to the point where he might be able to do it, though. LeBron wouldn't play with that reckless abandon over an 82-game stretch because there are bigger goals in mind. I think Quest is probably the right word with Russell Westbrook. I think you're being a little kind to Russell Westbrook here at house. But that's the thing is I don't know if physically you can play like this for 82 games.

That's the key. Jordan was the only one who did it, and even Jordan would pick his spots a little bit. But Jordan, the best he ever did was like 38-8. But he was also guarding the other team's best guy on defense. Russell Westbrook defensive, maybe not the same. Well, that's why he can play that turn everywhere else. He's definitely doing some great. I watched very quickly on Russell. I watched him have a bad game this week.

They hosted the Wizards down there in OKC, and he shot terribly from the field, but he still willed them to a victory. He made his first three of the game with, like, you know, three minutes left in the fourth quarter. But I will say he gets a bunch of sneaky rebounds because his IQ, his intuition, coupled with he has, like, a little bit of a Rodman kind of rebound intuition.

He was getting to the ball before the guys had him boxed out. Guys had better position, but he was getting to the ball ahead of them because he was anticipating where it was going to go. So that's just the last thing that maybe might help him

on that rebounding count. I watched a little of that game. Your team's terrible, House. Why didn't you trade John Wall? What are you waiting for? I'm not indulging any of this. What good is he doing to the team? Just trade him. You're still bitter about it. You're still bitter about Native Americans last week. You're coming indulging any of this. What good does he do on their team? Just trade him.

You're still bitter about Native Americans last week. You're coming back to house with this. It's not fair. You should trade John Wall. What good does he do? Just be the worst team in the league. You have a chance. You can be the worst team in the league.

All right, let's do our picks. Let's do our picks because we have some other stuff to get to. All right, you go first. We make three picks against the spread every week. You can go first. Okay, I'm liking the Atlanta Falcons this week. They are favored, I believe, by four and a half. I've seen four also.

Kansas City has not covered in consecutive games all season this year. They covered last week, so they're not going to cover this week. Recent history shows they have a really hard time post-Denver when they go on the road and play a team coming off a win. 0-7 straight up, 1-6 against the spread. That Sunday night game was a brawl. I loved it. What a great football game.

I think Kansas City, they have a Thursday night against Oakland coming up next. So this game in the middle here, I think they might get run out the joint. I'm taking the Falcons minus a four and a half. I got it. Falcons minus five. You think there's a chance the Chiefs take it easy this week because they got that Thursday game, Mace? They need this game. Think about what Miami's doing and what's going on in the division.

I don't think you can take it easy for a single week. If they lose another one, I think they're going to be in trouble. I don't love this pick house, but I haven't loved really any of your picks. And the record has backed up my fear of your picks. My favorite game this week is the Carolina Panthers in Seattle getting seven points against a team that they have played over and over again. Danny Kelly, we're going to talk about it when he comes on. They have played this team a lot, and they play them well, and they like playing them.

And Carolina is the best bad team in football. They do the most stuff of any team that's not going to make the playoffs. Oh, Tate just jarred up. Sorry, Tate. But they can do stuff. They're not going to get blown out. Oh, Tate just jarred up. Sorry, Tate. But they can do stuff. They're not going to get blown out. I thought Seattle got their ass kicked by Tampa. I was shocked by that.

They could not do anything. And I really think they miss having that kind of back that can come out of the backfield and do some stuff. They really only had it for a couple weeks with Procise, who was terrifying, and then all of a sudden was out. And I don't know. I think it's hard for them to move the ball. I think it's hard for them to block.

And I think Carolina can either win this game or cover by three. And I think we're going to look back and wonder how the hell Carolina didn't make the playoffs. Wait a minute. I thought we were going in on Carolina together this week. Oh, let's do – yeah, week. Oh, let's do... Okay, let's say, yeah, alright. That's our together pick. You're right.

You're right. My bad. As usual. I mean, I get properly criticized for my crappy picks, but we do this every single week. We compare notes ahead. We say, these are the teams we like together, and then you get on and try and own it yourself. I want in on this one. I like the Panthers

too. We're going in together on this one. The line's seven from what I just saw. You said something about three. It's seven. I said I think it's a three-point game, and I think either team can win. All right, that'll be our joint pick. I'm with you.

Carolina, only two of their seven losses by seven points or more this year. I mean, they're in every game. You just made the point. Seattle just two and three against the spread at home this season. And Carolina can win on the road. Great. That's a great pick.

They did it last year. That's it. So third pick, I was going to go with Tampa plus three and a half at San Diego, and I've decided not to. I just keep staring at the Washington Native Americans getting plus two and a half in Arizona. Reduce yourself again. I think Arizona sucks. Yeah.

I've watched them very carefully the last couple weeks just for maybe some financial reasons. Defense pretty good, but then falls apart in the second half. Offense, just nobody's on the same page with anybody. Carson Palmer looks bummed out. Their receivers aren't explosive. It's hard for them to move the ball. They're the master of the drive is just starting to take shape. And then miscommunication, first down pass, followed by the second down holding.

And all of a sudden, it's second and 22. And David Johnson gets stuffed on the screen pass. Now it's third and 24. Mays, you're with me. It's amazing how much different it feels watching them this year. Because last year, when you would see him kind of take a seven-step drop, really set up to let it rip, there was a fear for the other team. Now, as soon as he starts doing that, it's like, oh, this isn't going to end well.

It's so incredible how much of a different feeling it is this year. He's playing falling backwards. Yeah. And he has no confidence and i think that's one of the sloppiest teams you know you think about like the bad teams are always sloppy browns all those teams but the cardinals are like the sloppiest team that actually has some talent drops too just so much yeah i mean and it's palmer's not playing well but everyone else isn't playing well either michael floyd's not doing what we thought

he was gonna do john Brown has been very good. There are ten reasons why they're bad, but I never thought I could get to this point. And Washington, I think Washington is a good team. I thought you could have won on Thanksgiving if your kicker came through. You can move the ball. You can throw the ball. You can do stuff. You can run it.

You got ten days rest. I think you win this game. We had the analysis for that Washington-Dallas game down pat. I mean, we just tried to reverse jinx it into an actual Redskins win. But they were right there. You know, they just, at the

crucial moment of getting a stop against Dallas, they couldn't get a stop. And it never really felt like Washington was going to steal that game. I have a dumb guy question for Mays. Going into the game against Atlanta last week, Arizona Never really felt like Washington was going to steal that game. I have a dumb guy question for Mays. What's up, Mays? Going into the game against Atlanta last week, Arizona allegedly had the number one defense.

How can that be? This is a dumb guy eye test kind of question. I've watched a lot of Arizona this year. Their defense doesn't impress me. Why would they have the number one defense? I think their defense is pretty good. Yardage, I'll never give that any credence when they say number one defense. That's by total yards, which I don't think that matters.

Arizona's defense is different than it's been in recent years. Their pass rush is better. Chandler Jones has been good for them. Marcus Golden has been. They've never really had guys on the edge that could change the game. So when you add that to Patrick Peterson and Tony Jefferson playing well in the back end, I just think they have good players everywhere. I don't think they're the best defense in the league

but I do think they're pretty good and also like that's what makes me nervous against my team that's why I think it's a really good measuring stick for you guys because I haven't seen Cousins light up a good defense in the last few weeks if he does it again against Arizona that's what I'm really going to start believing the advanced metrics are screwed up this year the football outsider guys have done a good job of talking about this. Like they have that DVOA model, which is just out of whack. But the reason it's out of whack is everybody is so close together that if you look at the rankings, they don't actually tell you that the number two defense this year does not equal the number two defense in 2010.

And so I think when you look at a team like Arizona, it's like, oh, their defense is bad. It's not. Atlanta shredded them. Like every other team, even if they have good players and they have really good strengths, there are weaknesses. The fact that Marcus Cooper plays a lot for them, there just isn't a spotless unit anywhere. Even Denver isn't like that this year. Is Danny's mic on? Danny, hop in on this.

Hold on. Danny's going to get his mic. I want to know if Danny likes five defenses. Because Danny's the kind of guy at three in the morning he's watching weird YouTube clips trying to figure shit out. But I think I like the Denver. I like KC with all their guys back I think is a good defense.

Minnesota played really well last night. Minnesota's D looked pretty good. I still believe in them when they're healthy. Seattle's D looked good. Seattle, you always have to. Yeah. I mean, they're definitely in the conversation. Do we officially like the Baltimore defense?

Yeah, I do. Or do we just feel like they're doing well against? I officially like the Baltimore defense. Do you like any of their defenses? That Baltimore defense let me down against Dallas. I thought Baltimore was going to win that game outright. Jimmy Smith's back, though. When he's back and you get Dumerville, I think they can reach another level.

I really do. This is Danny Kelly from The Ringer. House, meet Danny Kelly. Hey, Danny. House just said, hey, Danny. All right, I'm here. Danny, do you like any other defenses other than ones we just mentioned uh i wasn't really listening i was trying to get the mic set up sorry i like i

like philly i'm not as big on philly as you are i don't like i mean they're corn the fact that leotis mckellivan is a principal part of it is worrisome but i really like the front seven so i believe i i think the wentz has sucked the life out of the entire Eagles team. That's fair. Everybody got so fired up for Wentz for that first month, and now between the fact that he can't control where his passes are going and he has a terrible receiver-running back combo, the defense is like, oh, man, we are fucked.

It's never a good feeling when you have the former first-round pick that's a healthy scratch. It's like, oh, Nelson Aguilar's just not playing today. That situation's weird. Yeah. Well, he was really, truly terrible, though. Yeah. He was, like, actively hurting the team.

House, where did you get Jamison Crowder? They drafted him. He was a rare, good draft pick by the Deadskins. I like that guy. I think he's good. I like dead skin. I like that guy. I think he's good. I like your team. I like the talent. They have the best receiving core by far.

Yeah. It's ridiculous. How are they not getting, laying points in Arizona? I don't get it. All right, so those are our three. We're taking Arizona, plus two and a half. We are taking Carolina, plus seven in Seattle. And then you are laying five points against the Chiefs,

which I don't agree with, but whatever. I don't agree with anything you do. You did a shack house this week, right? No, no, it's coming up. We're going to do one post-Tiger. We're going to record it Tuesday, and I think we're also going to include some of our end-of-the-year awards. There might be two shack houses yet to come out.

We're going to do a quick hit on the Tiger thing. We'll push that out right away, like Tuesday, and then we might have an end-of-the-year, some awards to give out to guys over the season. I know for sure I have an award in mind. I want to give out my favorite allocation of capital, my best bet for the 2016 golf season. I'm very excited to share the results of that one. Hey, speaking of

sharing, can you share some information about Callaway? Yeah, I would love to. It is, as you know, the holiday season. Callaway has their holiday gift guide. You can look online. They did a Facebook Live yesterday hosted by the inimitable

Amanda Baleonis. Give the gift of forgiveness with the Big Bertha Fusion, Callaway's most forgiving driver, or let a loved one unwrap explosive distance with a brand new set of Steelhead

irons. Callaway, the number one irons in golf. Get to some. Promo code house. Ship them to your house, your own house, for free. Promo code house. Free shipping. House.

You got to figure out how to do those in less than 20 seconds. That was like a Paul Thomas Anderson movie. You gave me 20 seconds. That was my limit. Now I'm down to 15. Oh, house. The Boogie Nights House is for sale. I meant to tell you this on the podcast.

How much time have you spent looking at the online? How much do we have to get together? Let's get a consortium. It's a little pricey. It's $1.5 million. Oh, that's like 20 of us can go in on that. It's in Covina California

Which is about 40 minutes from LA toward Ontario It's going in a direction Like kind of near Commerce Casino The closest Kind of bigger city That it's near is Chino Which is where the kid from the OC

Was from when all the rich kids made fun of him To give you an idea of where the Boogie Nights house is. I googled all the prices of Covina houses that were over a million dollars and there was only 11. It was one of the most expensive ones. It's 1.35 acres. I'm not even looking at anything right now. The amount of research you've done is startling.

It looks exactly the same. They have not altered it. It looks like Jack Horner's house. I'm going to send you the link and you're going to get freaked out. They have not changed the interior at all. I mean, I don't even, there might be the bullet hole from Little Bill in the wall. I'm not sure. But it looks exactly the same.

Like literally, it's possible to buy the Boogie Nights house and have Jack Horner parties there and it's a it's i just want to get in that pool one time do a flip like reed rothschild yes so yeah i'm just laying that out there i'm going to send you the links but uh america you can you can look at the boogie night's house it is incredible it's amazing joe house thank you thanks guys later bud alright we're gonna bring in Maize and Kelly but first

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They did not do that on Friday because we taped the whole NFL thing yesterday, which you'll be able to find on YouTube, and we also ran as a podcast. Danny, this is your virgin appearance. I know. It's crazy. We're going to talk about futures because this is a great time to talk about futures. I'm in. We're heading into week 13.

Perennially, a really good time to get some decent odds on things. Like this. Will the Browns go winless in 2016? Here are the odds. Yes, plus 160. No, minus 125. I'm sorry, minus 225. You have to bet on that just for the fun of doing it.

I'm going to give you their games. Home against Cincy at Buffalo. Home against San Diego at Pittsburgh. That's not an easy stretch. Not an easy stretch. Cincinnati's the worst team they play for the rest of the season. Yeah. So yes is plus 160.

So basically, if they get through so basically if they don't if they get through this week i don't think they win no but since he's not very good i mean since he's they're not very good relatively but they're a lot better than the browns yeah i mean they have a lot of injuries though so i mean they're like with no aj green it could absolutely happen and just the enjoyment of being able to root for a winless season, I feel like that's what makes the odds worth it. Divisions. The Lions minus 180, Packers plus 220, Vikings plus 750.

So basically it's Lions versus the Packers. Yeah. Are we riding in the Lions? Because I think they're going to lose to the Saints this week. I'm not. We were talking about this on our show that we recorded yesterday. I think it could absolutely come down to that Week 17 game between Green Bay and Detroit. All they have to do is be one game back.

But if the Packers win, then what happens with the tiebreakers? Green Bay won both their head-to-heads. Oh, yeah, Green Bay won the first one. What do you think, Danny? I think the Lions, but I'm i'm feeling i mean anybody in that division is just so unbalanced like the lions are good on offense terrible on defense maybe one of the worst defenses in the nfl but then you saw what the packers did the last couple weeks not this last week but 30 points plus four weeks in a row 40 points plus two weeks in a row i mean that

defense is hurting. And I don't know if beating the Eagles necessarily tells us a whole lot because the Wentz thing is, I don't know, it doesn't tell us a whole lot. I agree. I just think that if I'm going to make a bet on one of those teams, I'm going to feel safe as putting it on Green Bay. Maybe that's five years of what's happened previously informing my decision, but it feels safer to me. Or they just caught the perfect Monday night opponent,

a team that could not run the ball at all. When that's how you beat Green Bay, one of the reasons, you just run the ball down their throats, they're not going to stop you. And Philly had Smallwood and Sproles, all these dudes. They have no receivers either. The main problem with the Packers, other than the run defenses, they're playing their third and fourth corners right now. Secondary is equally bad and hurt.

Who do the Packers play this week against Houston? They'll beat Houston, I bet. God, that could be an ugly game. Lamar Miller could run it down their throats. I feel better about their run defense than you do. I think right now where you take advantage of Green Bay is their corners just aren't very good. And Brock Osweiler isn't going to be that guy. No.

That's the problem. Yeah, they might have lucked out. Similar to what happened last week. Is it cold in Green Bay yet? Like, is it getting really cold yet? I haven't been in the Midwest in like two weeks. I have no idea. It's got to be starting.

Can you see? I mean, Brock Osweiler's played in Denver, but I mean, it's not going to help him. This could be the Brock Osweiler farewell start. Yeah. Like, if he sucks this week, and they still have a chance to win the division, obviously. They're still winning the division. It's ridiculous. But I mean, if they lose, it'll be like tied or whatever.

They'd have to go with Tom Savage. It's a snow game on Sunday. There we go. It's that time of year. Brock's going to be like stumbling around like a new baby deer. NFC South, Falcons 4-1 favorites. Bucks at plus 350. Saints at 15-1. Panthers

100-1. Now if the Falcons lose to the Chiefs and the Bucs beat San Diego. They're a game back, right? No, they'd be tied in the loss column. Oh, that's right. Five, yeah. If the Saints win and both of those teams lose, the Saints would be a game back and tied with Tampa.

And then Carolina basically has to win out. Carolina's hoping for a 9-7 four-way tie. But even then, I think they'd be screwed. I don't think Carolina has a shot. The Saints are interesting to me. We talked about this a little bit. They're so dangerous. And if they did get in, I think they'd have a puncher's chance in any game.

They're like Washington. Yeah. Saints or Washington has a 5 or 6 seed, you'd be like, oh, shit. Right. I've got to score 30 points to beat these guys. Right, exactly. Tampa's schedule is brutal. That, to me, would be the biggest drawback for picking them.

They have so many tough games down the stretch, it's hard to imagine them winning even three of those. Who's your favorite out of those teams? I like the Falcons. Yeah. I think the Falcons are solid. Their defense is, I mean, it's like the same as the lions their defense is terrible but their offense does enough where like you said you're gonna have to score a lot of points to beat them i also really

like the saints i think the saints defense has picked up a lot lately and with what they do with breeze i mean that gives them a chance every week so there's something to be said about beating the shit out of a couple teams i totally agree you know the saints have done it what it's something to be said about beating the shit out of a couple teams. I totally agree. You know? The Saints have done it, what? It's hard to blow out teams in the NFL. They have, yeah, two blowout wins in their last four weeks. One was against the Niners. But the Rams, not an easy team to score 49 on. They embarrassed them.

They moved the ball at will. It was really impressive. I wonder how many points have the Rams given up this year? They've got to be pretty good in the points per game column, I think. Just that defense is good enough to keep the game close. Even when they haven't been playing well, outside of that whatever weird one debacle happened in San Francisco, they haven't gotten blown out.

Even when they've been uninspiring, they've been solid. It's like 10-6 every game. Last week was really weird to watch. Who do you have, Steelers minus 220 or Ravens plus 180? I'm on the Steelers wagon now. I am too. I think that what we saw against Indy is an indication of what we may see for the rest of the season. Roethlisberger's back healthy.

They finally have Bell, him, and Antonio Brown together. I think that they're the most dangerous lurking wildcard team in the AFC. We were talking about the Saints and Washington. So you don't like the Giants' chances this weekend? I mean, I like the Giants some, but yeah, I like the Steelers. So it's a very disrespectful six-point spread for the Giants. Giants are the worst 8-3 team of all time. I just, it's so hard to get excited about them.

Where is it? It's in Pittsburgh. Huh. Yeah. All right. NF year. I'm so excited about that. Where is it? It's in Pittsburgh. Huh. Yeah. All right. NFC... Oh, let's do AFC South. God, what a mess.

Texans are the favorites in the AFC South. They're minus 120 favorites. How close is Tennessee? Tennessee's plus 200. Colts plus 350. Tennessee has... They are Are they not playing this week?

Oh yeah they're off How did they get a bye this late? Crazy bye The Colts are home I'm sorry Monday night Colts At the Jets It's an unwatchable game

Congratulations for that one And then Houston's at Green Bay As we discussed So I think the Colts Lux playing in that game Congratulations for that one. And then Houston's at Green Bay, as we discussed. So I think the Colts, Luck's playing in that game. That's one of those Luck is the best player in the field game. Right. If they don't beat the Jets, that's a problem.

I still, for whatever reason, have talked myself into Tennessee 20 times and still am. But the Colts need to beat the Jets. Tennessee has hurt my feelings multiple times. Every time you want to believe them, they let you down. Yeah. So who'd you pick? I like the Titans. Yeah. They're balanced.

They just waived Parrish Cox, who started like four games for them. He had a terrible game. God, he's been really bad. Yeah. I like the waving the guy who's a starter to send a message. Like, what kind of message? The defense is like, yeah, we know we suck. You didn't have to wave parish cost it's crazy but at gunpoint i think i would

bet on andrew luck that i don't disagree with you i taking the best quarterback is usually a good move right i just like what tennessee's doing and i know that they've burned me the last couple times i've said that but their offense is making big plays i like the players they have in the front seven they just do the most stuff well out of anyone in that division right now. The Titans are Dallas light. They run the ball really well. They've got an efficient quarterback. They've got players up front, though.

The Jarrell Casey, Derek Morgan, Brian Arakpo combination. Their defense is better, yeah. Dallas doesn't have a single guy that even scratches that. Right. So most likely we have three 6-6 teams on Monday because the Titans aren't playing and if the Colts win and the Texans lose. Lovely. Colts last four, home for Houston, at Minnesota, at Oakland, home for Jacksonville.

Not easy. No. We're going to see an 8-8 team is going to be your division champ in this somehow. Hosting a game. The Titans are at Kansas City. On a scale of one to ten, how excited are you to bet against Brock Osweiler in a walk-out round? I mean, it's always been a dream come true.

There's been some really good quarterbacks to bet on in round one over the years, though. I mean, we can't lose. That would actually be a fun piece. Who are the worst playoffs quarterbacks? Of the most fun quarterbacks to bet against? I would probably say that one of those Cardinals guys is number one, right? Who started for them a couple years ago against Cardinals? Like Skelton?

No, it was worse than that. It was John Skelton. I mean, I would say that's probably number one. I don't know how you beat that. Oh, TJ Yates. Oh, yeah. TJ Yates covered, though. Yeah, he won.

Yeah, he won that game. AJ McCarron. No, the... Yeah, from last year. I have to go far back, but for some reason I remember this very vividly and happily. Quincy Carter. It's like 2003. Started a playoff game and was getting less than double figures in points.

And it was beautiful. And I thank God every day for it. People under... They don't really give enough credit to how bad Kyle Orton was in 2005. He was absolutely unwatchable when the Bears won 11-5. This is a piece. We should do this piece. Let's do it. The worst round-run quarterbacks to bet against.

And Will Brock Osweiler would be worse than all of them. AFC West, Raiders even. Chiefs plus 150. Broncos plus 550. Chiefs are not favored Broncos plus 550. Chiefs are not favored this week in Atlanta. They're getting five points. They're probably going to lose. That's too many. I want to see

Atlanta do it against a really good defense. They played well against Arizona last week. I was surprised by that line. Kansas City, their defense is for real. Five points is a lot. I think Vegas factors in if you played five quarters. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

That would make sense. I think there's – That's a good point. I just think that's brutal. What was the other time that happened? The Seattle – The Seattle-Arizona this year, yeah. When they tied after –

Yeah, it was like 6-6 or whatever. That Seattle-Arizona game was brutal in a way that Kansas City-Dunbar was the same way. I mean, it's two really physical teams. There were like 20 people on the injured report for Arizona after that game. Yeah, Arizona was probably not the same after that game. I can't imagine what they're feeling like. Which one would you take out of those AFC West teams? I think I still like the Raiders.

Okay. I do too. Sticking with the Raiders. Both of those other teams, I feel like, are probably going to make the playoffs, but it's hard to pick against Oakland Division. I would take the Chiefs if their schedule wasn't as hideous as it is. They basically have to win in Atlanta this week to have any chance, and I think after last week, rough one.

All right, MVP. Matt Ryan plus 400. Tom Brady plus 400, who I think he's almost across. Matt Ryan is a co-favorite right now. Zeke Elliott plus 500. Dak Prescott plus 600. I was going to say. Derek Carr 8-1. Matt Stafford 10-1.

Wilson 15-1. Rodgers, for some reason, 25-1. Kirk Cousins lingering at 25-1. That would be amazing. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers at the same MVP. This is where we are. And then it gets wonky after that. I've already made my case, too.

I think Dak's the MVP because I think you have to measure him against all the backup quarterbacks. And if every team lost their starter and the backup came in, could the backup hold the fort? Not only did he hold the fort, he was better than the starter. It's unprecedented. It would be the equivalent of if Garoppolo was undefeated with the Patriots right now. It's unprecedented. I don't understand why we have all these qualifiers.

I don't think you can give it to them. I do agree this is like the Dallas season. Last night was kind of an indication of that. It's just a Thursday night game where they didn't play great. It's the sort of game you lose and they didn't. But I think in that kind of, if this is Dallas' season and we're throwing them hardware, I think they give it to Zeke. That would be my guess. I don't think they should, but I think that could absolutely happen.

I mean, I think Zeke's going to get it. But I think you can definitely make the argument for Dak. It's funny because we don't even talk about I don't really think about him as the backup. It's kind of interesting because he started the whole season, but he's played so well, you're not even really like, wow, this backup is great. It's kind of just like, he's just great. This has been a passion of mine for a while. What a most valuable means.

Because I think almost every time people just go with best player. On the best team. Fundamentally, what does most viable mean? It means if you remove that person from the team and you replace them with somebody else, what would happen? So if Dallas had Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar and all these dudes instead of Zeke Elliott, they'd still be like six and four. You know, maybe he'd lose three games, but I still think they would be an above-average team. If you replace Dak Prescott and you put some of the shitty backup quarterbacks we've seen from around the league in that spot, it's a 2-9 team or a 3-8 team.

We saw it last year with Castle. They couldn't function. But that's how quarterback is. That's why the MVP for the most part. That's why the quarterback always wins MVP, though. Because he's inherently the most valuable. If we're going by that definition, though, it's Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson is the most valuable player in the league. If you replace Russell Wilson with the league average quarterback, that's a bottom five offense.

I agree with that. What if you replace Matt Ryan with Brock Osweiler? I mean, that's a problem. That's the thing, though. Going from Matt Ryan to Brock Osweiler isn't going from a really good quarterback to an average one. It's going from a really good quarterback to the worst one. So who's the most average quarterback? If you put Tannehill on the Dolphins.

Oh, Tannehill. So Tannehill's the most average quarterback. If you put Tannehill on the Falcons, the Falcons are still really good on offense. They're either 5-6 or 6-5. They're worse, but I still think they're a top eight offense with Ryan Tannehill as a quarterback. So if you put Ryan Tannehill and the Seahawks, what's their record? That's a good question. It's hard because the defense is going to carry them to wins, but in terms of their offense...

They're 4-7? Oh, man. 3-8? No, they're better than that. More like 4-7. They're the number one scoring defense in the league again. They're better than that, but their offense is definitely in the bottom six or eight. Are they going into New England and winning?

Are they going – No. Are they going to beat the Eagles or the Bills? All right, so let's go league average backup. Who's a league average backup? Scott Tolzien? No. I think he's worse than league average.

Landry Jones? That might work. Landry Jones, the most average backup quarterback. tolzine no i think he's not leah landry jones that might work lindsey jones the most average backup quarterback that's he is the cowboys quarterback for the first 10 games of the season what's our record two and eight yeah we kind of saw that last year yeah they're two and eight dax mvp you just don't want to admit it but that's again we're talking about last year they had matt castle and kellen moellen Moore and Brandon Whedon. That's not league average. That's bottom of the barrel. That's the worst quarterback play imaginable.

Matt Castle got a big contract, though. Is that an indicator of what a guy can play? Matt Castle has been horrid. Matt Castle from his last year in KC has been literally unwatchable. When he was playing at Minnesota those first four games, people forget how terrible he was. He broke his leg, and that's why Teddy ended up playing. But before he did that, that game he played against New England that season, I can't remember a worse game from a quarterback.

Maybe Geno against the Bills that one game. I don't know if I'm going to argue for Dak being the MVP, but when you look at the amount of times he's made big third down throws, think about the amount of drives would have died without him at quarterback he's the type of quarterback that's really good for them because he can extend plays with his legs in a weird way it's kind of stuff that romo did a couple years ago third and six you just trust they're gonna get it because he's so good at extending stuff making plays out of the pocket he just has an improvisational element to him that makes him really useful in those two other factors you guys didn't mention yet.

Doesn't turn the ball over. Yep. Which is my favorite quality for any quarterback. He's on like two record streaks without an interception. Yeah, he just doesn't, he hasn't fucked up a game yet. He hasn't even really fucked up a drive. And also like dealing with Dez is not easy. Yeah.

And he has Dez's respect. Yeah. And maybe there's seven quarterbacks in the league that Dez just doesn't act like an a-hole in the sidelines twice a season and screws stuff up and chemistry issues and Dez is in on Dak. He doesn't throw interceptions in part because of the build of their offense. That's the style they play. They're going to lean on the run.

He's made some big third and thirteens though. He's thrown balls in traffic that are in the right spots. Even yesterday when it was third and seven when they settled for the field goal. We were all watching together last night when they went up 17-9. He had Williams in the corner, and he threw it away that either Williams had to make an awesome catch or it was going out of bounds. That's a play where Ryan Tannehill throws it to the defensive back. Right.

He also had that play real late when they were trying to put the game away, and he slid half a foot too early or whatever. I mean, I don't know. He should have gotten first down there, but plays like that where he extends it with his legs too. He picks the spots with that. That's the biggest part of it. He reminds me of Russell Wilson like two years ago. Not Russell Wilson year one because he ran the ball a lot,

but just understanding when to run, not using it as a crutch but using it as a weapon i think he's very very similar to russell wilson even though their bodies are different the one thing he doesn't have that wilson has that nobody else has is that the go to the right spin do this spin back that's the left romo rogers those are the two other guys it's just unbelievable it's unstoppable and he creates two extra first downs a game with that play. And him and Roethlisberger, Rogers still not quite as much as he used to. But those guys, it's so depressing when you're on the other side. And it's, oh, we had him. Roethlisberger is the king of that.

Demoralizing. Yeah. So demoralizing. We'll see how good Dak is mobility- wise when he's not playing behind that offensive line because like there's no more disparate situation than Russell Wilson's current offensive line and Dak Prescott's I think like five years ago I wrote that Roethlisberger should be a stat where it's like you should have been sacked but you weren't you got it first down

you know like carry two guys like tugging on your jersey Wilson would lead the league by far this year the Houdini plays no question yeah or this year. The Houdini players. Oh, no question. Or call it the Houdini or something. We've got to talk about Super Bowl matchups. So I have the odds for these. First of all, they took the odds off.

Why'd they do that? All right, sorry. All right, we'll go Super Bowl odds then. First of of all who do you think is going to win the superbowl and i'll tell you the ads it's hard for me to pick against seattle still i know they played terribly last week i just think they're the best team top to bottom offense defense when they're healthy i still think seattle's the best team yeah plus 650 i'm i'm still sticking with the cowboys man like to me they they are the team just like gut feeling that has been the hardest to be in the nfl right now i mean their record shows that too but like just you have to be perfect to beat them but

seattle can be that that's why i believe in seattle because if there's a defense in the league that is spotless at every level and just all over the place it's the seahaw Seattle because if there's a defense in the league that is spotless at every level and just all over the place, it's the Seahawks. And if there's a unit that can give them trouble, I still think it's Seattle. I like that you're trying to convince me. I know. I can't believe I'm in this division. Danny's playing hard to get with it. No, no, I don't think it is.

I genuinely am not feeling quite as confident as you. I think they're good. Yeah, I watched a lot of that Tampa game last week. I thought they had an incredible amount of trouble moving the ball. That's an outlier, though. I don't know if it was an outlier. Black up center, back up right tackle. I mean, when your offensive line is bad and then you start replacing players,

that's what happens. I feel like if they can get healthy, they're going to be a lot of trouble for somebody. Who's their 25-yard play guy now? I mean, it's Jimmy Graham. It's basically Jimmy Graham. Yeah. Doug Baldwin's still around.

But Wilson makes anybody that guy. Kirst can give that to you. Lockett can give that to you. They can make plays down the field if he has time. If they get Lockett going, that would make me feel a lot better. We're also about two weeks in from Russell Wilson being healthy. We haven't seen him healthy for most of the season. If he's healthy,

there's no way you can count them out, even on offense. I think Dallas is going to have home field. They have to go into Dallas and beat them. Dallas, although... That game, man. That would be sweet if that happened. I think Dallas reminds me of the Cubs and the Indians in baseball

where when they have the lead, they can just close it, which is why last night was so surprising. It just seemed like they were going to close it third down. We were laughing. They had the ball. They're up eight. Oh, this is over. They're going to get a first down.

But then Prescott screwed up his slide. All of a sudden the Vikings have the ball back. But just think, if they're up four at home with seven minutes left, they have the ball, I don't think the other team's getting it back. Minnesota, watching those fronts play against each other yesterday was fascinating. You got so offensive line nerdy about some of this. I made you rewind like a simple Tyron Smith pass set.

That Minnesota team went toe-to-toe with the Cowboys offensive line. And when you look at seattle with bennett clark averill the guys they have up front they have the sort of horses to also go toe-to-toe with dallas and i think that's why it's going to be a good match i think if there is a team that can beat dallas it is seattle can physically are we sure they can hold up for 20 games yeah because they're well they could get the two seed i guess but i think they'll that's a team that needs to not play in week 18 right yeah i think they will get the two seed and i mean i'm kind of anticipating an nfc championship game between the cowboys and the seahawks

you know maybe that i mean obviously that's just hope but like i can't see it's hard to see another situation i agree washington's offense is really good atlanta has a ton just hope, but I can't see – it's hard to see another situation. I agree. Washington's offense is really good. Atlanta has a ton of firepower, but I don't think either of them are in the same class. Can you imagine Sunday championship weekend, Seattle at Dallas and Oakland at New England? Yes, I can because it's all I want in the world. That would be fun, man. That is a great Final Four.

That Oakland-New England game is going to get a ton of points. Oakland-New England, they have the history of the tuck rule and the rough in the passer penalty in 76 and the uniforms. That would be unbelievable. I'd be fired up for that. For all the talk early in the season about how ugly the games were and ratings and everything else, the teams that are still going to be there at the end are really fun. I mean, there's a really good crop at the top of it all that is just enjoyable to watch. I can't remember who I was talking about this with, but if you take just 12 playoff teams,

I think we were talking about it, maybe 10 are really fun to watch. Yeah. Remember when we were saying how there weren't fun NFL teams? But obviously now the NFL just takes 10 weeks to get going. Because the really bad offenses are too bad. The teams with really good defenses

and bad offenses the offenses are aren't the level of company you need to make the playoffs like baltimore yeah for the most part it's the bad defense and good offense teams that have been winning even the giants who are always like dissatisfying and they just leave you kind of joyless and dry this year they're kind of fun because they're they they're just unpredictable wacky every once in a while odell would just have the 77-yard run touchdown. I can't. They just make me glaze over. I don't know what it is.

JPP did have to pick six with one hand. Their defense has got some playmakers on it now, which is fun. Yeah. Danny, let me ask you this. Giants at Seattle. Could that be a round two? I guess I couldn't. Yeah, that could. If the the giants won the four or five

oh would that send them to seattle yeah or if they won the three six giant seattle odell that would be a fun one odell is getting punts odell is back for every punt how frightened are you i'd kick it out of bounds probably they will right is there i like it i mean you might as well at that point because he's the only guy on your team that can make a play like that on offense or special team so it's hard for me to imagine the giants winning cold weather games with those running backs yeah that would be that would be my biggest other than the fact that defensively they have three good guys and eight shaky ones do you think the running game i don't

see it yeah because you think that offense functions real well? It's hard for me to imagine. Against a zone team in the rain. Exactly. Because the Seahawks mostly play zone. I mean, they do other stuff, but it's not like – I feel like Odell's not going to house one against Seattle just because they're playing with their eyes.

He's not going to take that slant 60 yards because there's just too many bodies in the way. Don't the Seahawks go into that game saying we're knocking out Odell Beckham if he comes over the middle. Please run the slant over the middle. What's the last time Seattle gave up a big passing play that was

not a jump ball to Mike Evans? A play with just broken coverage that somebody totally fucked up. Well, the fact that I can't really think of one. I mean, I'm sure there are a few. Yeah, but nothing comes to mind. But, like, they don't do that egregiously. It's funny because, like, when Richard Sherman gets beat, like, bad, which has happened, like, five times in his career or whatever, like, people talk about it forever. But, like, the Seahawks, just that's the main tenet of Pete Carroll's defense.

Like the Mike Evans play last week where he had the hand on it. Julio scored a pretty long touchdown that was kind of a broken coverage. But you have to pick them out. It's not as if they happen every three weeks. I was shocked by Mike Evans kind of took it to Sherman a couple times in that game. He's good. I'm as good of an athlete as you, and I'm catching the ball every once in a while. That's a really good matchup.

It was. I mean, like Sherman, he's actually, I think, better against small guys these days. Because some of the, like Dez and I'm trying to think of who else have had really good matches. Like Brandon Marshall beat him a couple times. You know, I mean, those are the hardest matchups for him. Mike Evans, if I did a year end awards right now, Mike Evans would be my most improved. Even though statistically statistically probably is relatively similar to last year.

He had three touchdowns last year, and he's got ten this year. He was dropping passes last year all the time in big moments, and he hasn't dropped them anymore. He's kind of become Fitzgerald-y. He makes big plays in traffic. He's ridiculous. I was wrong about a lot of stuff

coming into the season. I was very right about that. He was the one guy I was like trumpeting it for the year. He's going to be huge, and he has been. Well, you were wrong about the lap dance you gave DeAndre Hopkins for the entire 2016. Whoa, whoa, whoa. DeAndre, let's – Come on now. DeAndre Hopkins is still a very good football player.

It was like one of those three-song lap dances, too. It wasn't even one lap dance. I feel so bad for him. Having to toil away with Brock Osweiler is the worst fate. Fitz made it work with John Skelton and all the Ryan Lindley, all these dudes. I had to go back to the ATM with DeAndre Hopkins.

It was not a lot of responsibility there. I've been proud of him that he hasn't completely snapped though. I would have gone crazy at this point. It's crazy that he did so much better last year with the four guys that they had. I just never thought it could be like this. Every kind of conversation about it was, look at what he did with those guys.

Even if Oswald was bad, there's still a consistency there. I just never imagined he could be this terrible. All right. Do we have any long shot? We're going to go in a second. Do we have any long shot Super Bowl sleepers? Because here's the list. Chiefs 18-1. Giants 22-1 1 broncos 28 to 1 lions 30 to 1 dolphins 35 to 1 packers 35 to 1

baltimore 40 to 1 denver's 28 to 1 that's a good bet redskins 50 to 1 i i would go with denver denver new york denver 28 to. That seems like too much for me. Their defense is still really good. People seem to think they're not going to make the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I mean, they're on the verge, yeah. But if they get in, I still think they have enough guys over there to be really scary. I think Denver's really good. They have the most sacks in the NFL right now.

They're going to beat New England in two weeks, and it's going to make me sad. That defense is still really good. Yeah, it's 28-1 when you're a team with Von Miller and all those other guys. I think that's pretty good value. I agree.

I think that's the best odds right now because, you know, the AFC is a three-point favorite against the NFC in the Super Bowl, which I think is interesting.

Huh. That usually means Vegas thinks... I don't agree with that at all. I think two best teams are in the NFC.

I'm looking at it right now. Oh, that line dropped to minus one and a half, I think, because of Gronk. Oh, that makes sense. AFC minus one and a half. But do you think New England's favorite against Dallas or Seattle in the Super Bowl? Just telling you what Vegas says. Don't get mad at him, man. Don't get mad at me, Maze.

So we can listen to you guys on the Ring or NFL show every Friday. Yep. And then you're with Kevin Clark on Mondays. Kevin Clark on Mondays. And we can read you this month, next month. It's kind of your wheelhouse, Mace. We're getting down the stretch here. Five weeks left.

This is the time. I'm glad you've stayed focused after the Cubs World Series championship. I showed up at 8 a.m. the next day and recorded a video. I was on it. You flew in. Incredible. All right. Thank you, fellas.

Thanks, bud. Thank you. Thanks to Thanks, bud. Thank you. Thanks to TheRinger.com. Remember, huge back and forth. I did with Gladwell about the future of football. We wrote it. It went up on TheRinger.com on Thursday. Check that out.

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