The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 169: Super Bowl LI Prop Bets With Cousin Sal and Mike Lombardi

Episode Date: January 31, 2017

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons brings on Cousin Sal and Mike Lombardi to discuss all things prop bets for Super Bowl LI. Topics include: high-scoring teams' historical Super Bowl record (6:00), the origin of the "Matty Ice" nickname (12:00), Gatorade colors (15:00), Belichick's kickoff deferrals (21:00), first TD scored (27:00), Desmond Trufant's injury (34:00), Matt Ryan's passing yardage (38:00), Julio Jones's breakout potential (44:00), John Lynch's hiring (49:00), Tony Romo's likely release (54:00), the MVP race (57:00), and the Gary Russell prop bet of the year (68:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's special Super Bowl props episode of the BS Podcast brought to you by our presenting sponsor, SeatGeek. It's Super Bowl week. Buying tickets are a big and complicated investment. Our friends at SeatGeek are here to help, Sal. They're committed to helping you find the best seats at the best prices, fully guaranteed, with a revolutionary grading system and a team of ticket concierge experts that are a phone call away from free advice. Download the SeatGeek app today. Get your tickets to see my beloved Patriots take on the Falcons in Houston

or check out their Super Bowl tracker on SeatGeek.com. We're also brought to you by the Ringer NFL Show. We're basically going daily this week leading into Super Bowl weekend, hosted by Robert Mays, Kevin Clark, Dana Kelly, and even new Ringer free agent addition, Michael Lombardi. You're officially a Ringer. There you go, yeah. Yeah. Thank you, Sal.ombardi. Nice. You're officially a ringer.

There you go, yeah. Yeah. Thank you, Sal. A round of applause. Sit down, everybody, please. Thank you. Subscribe on iTunes, SoundCloud, Stitcher, Google Play, wherever else. It's also going to be the home of Lombardi's football podcast

whenever we decide what that is and who's on it. But that's the Ringer NFL Show podcast, football. All right. Time for my favorite podcast of the year. Let's roll. All right. Cousin Sal is here. I am.

Mike Lombardi is here. The Ringer's Mike Lombardi. It's a pleasure to be here. Although I don't understand anything about the prop bet. Just let me get that out of the way. You're a conciliary. You're like Vito in the last 40 minutes of Godfather. This sickens me. I don't understand anything about the prop bet. Just let me get that out of the way. You're a conciliary. You're like Vito in the last 40 minutes of Godfather. This sickens me.

I don't understand. How did you not become a degenerate gambler? I know, he's Italian. He loves football. I don't understand either. I don't know. All my friends are degenerate gamblers either. You've been in this business 75 years.

You should be able to tell us how to win money. The Italian side of you, I don't understand. I'm so disappointed. It is disappointing. He just went right for more good fellas reruns and that was it well bill said should we bring lombardi in i was like yes yes make all caps exclamation point make him drive in he's on the payroll now oh that's right um this is christmas this is christmas for south is it really this really is i don't i don't know if this is the best podcast out there right now. But it is the most important.

Mark Maron, Ted Radio. They're not going to make you a million dollars this weekend. We are. We're going to do that right now. Here we go. We've had a pretty decent success rate with the Super Bowl props over the years. Now, before we dive into the props the line has stayed at three stayed at three yeah the over under has remained at 59 that's too high

highest in super bowl history just got saints colts was second at 56 and a half i think and that that went over that go over there's a lot of points there. Gut take, Lombardi. Is that line too high? 59 points. I have 34, 24. You know, I think that's about right. I think the score's going to be 34, 24 Patriots. Wow, he's given his pick already. You have a whole week to do this. Well, but I had it up. Welcome to the show, guys.

I had it up. I mean, I had it up to two numbers. You want to tell us who's going to win next year, too? It's like the alphabet. I've got to start with A to figure out what follows. Don't say you have A winning, though. So right around 59 in Lombardi's tech. I think it goes lower.

I think you're asking for trouble betting the under, right? The under is the least fun bet in football. Yeah, it's not fun. It's your rooting for things not to happen, basically. It's like the don't come line in poker. My experience is usually when two teams with high-octane offenses play, somebody's defense ends up playing better than expected, and that's what I think will happen in the game.

But you think that's going to be the New England Patriots defense? I actually do. Someone tweeted me this. I don't know if it's true, but you guys would probably remember. In the Brady Super Bowl games, the six Brady Super Bowl games in the first quarter, the score at the end of the first quarter, 3-0, 0-0, 0-0, 3-0, 9-0, 0-0. Is that possible? Well, yeah, because when you have two weeks to prepare, typically,

usually that first quarter is really about trying to figure out what everybody else is doing. So it's a little bit like the first round of a boxing match or the first two rounds. It's like you're trying to figure out how they want to play the game and then once you can do that and then once you declare how you want to play the game the style the fronts everything then everything goes and then you start to get into your rhythm because all the game players yeah i think that plays i always felt like the first quarter is just you have guys that if they're ever going to be nervous playing a football game it'll be the first 10 minutes of this game but it's not going to be brady being nervous they're ever going to be nervous playing a football game, it'll be the first 10 minutes of this game. But it's not going to be Brady being nervous.

He's not going to throw a pick. Could be Matt Ryan. It could be. Maybe. Who knows? What's the biggest college game Matt Ryan ever played in? I don't know. ACC championship.

All right. Look at you. ACC championship. He was in that BC when he threw that Hail Mary pass on BC. No, that was another guy. Wrong BC guy. So before we hit the props, Lombardi sent me this stat that's really interesting. The Falcons are one of the top five highest scoring teams ever.

Have you seen this? The Broncos got killed in the Super Bowl. The 07 Pats lost. The 83 Redskins got killed. These are other top scoring. And the 67 Raiders lost to Green Bay. And now here are the Falcons. So we have the highest scoring offenses are 0 and 4 with the Falcons as a question mark.

Heading into this, I don't know what to make of that. Well, I think a lot of it is that, you know, you look at what the offense does. You have you have more time to prepare you don't have that short week and then you can defend the things they do well and force them to play left-handed which is something that the patriots always do and the patriots will have the ability to the falcons have the same ability with the falcon to with when they play them so you know i think that's why it's always going to be a lot less scoring than most people think people think it's just going to be a lot less scoring than most people think. People think it's just going to be high octane. I don't. I think it'll be a pace of a game.

And I think the way the Patriots win or the way the Falcons win is to control the pace. It's like a basketball game. The game gets too explosive, maybe you can't win it. But if the game plays a certain style, you can win it. I think that's for both teams. Lombardi said it's going to be a lot less lower scoring than – he said 58 points, and they're going to be – Vegas expects 59. So he says way under.

58 or under. That's it. I mean, if you want to – yeah, I think that's right. Because I think there's always that – you know, you've got to put – one thing about this game, why everybody likes the over, is because there's no lead safe. Right. So you're always – even if you're up by 10 or you're up by 14, you're going to keep trying to score.

And the Patriots will keep trying to score until the clock becomes their opponent. How do you think Sal's going to control the pace of his eating during the Super Bowl? Because I've seen him in action. There are a bunch of props on that. You like to go early first quarter, but then like a pre-halftime, right,

before everybody lines up for food, you'll go back. then you'll sneak back in right for the sample early fourth quarter i think we're cooking up a pig or something we're going all out this year but they're finger foods because i'm constantly like i'll grab three mini hot dogs between each play what is it 40 seconds right when they drop the play clock i i lost weight i'm not coming this year you're not doing it not coming what happened why my're not doing it? Not coming. What happened? Why? My dad's going to be here, and he wants to watch the game at my house, and he's nervous,

and he really wants a fifth Super Bowl. He really took the flake game personally, as did everyone in New England. Yeah. And he's really focused. I haven't seen him this focused in a while. I appreciate the dad excuse, but there is no doubt in my mind that your daughter has a soccer game. No, it's actually in the morning. It's in the morning. I got plenty of time, but there is no doubt in my mind that your daughter has a soccer game. There's a soccer game? No, it's actually in the morning. It's in the morning. I've got plenty of time

to recover from the soccer game. I'm going to have you follow. The props. Let's do it. Well, should we start with the ones that you can't bet in Vegas, but are fun? Yeah, let's do Dumb and Happy first. So Luke Bryan to sing National Anthem. Two minutes, nine seconds is the over-under. He's

on YouTube at 159 the 2012 All-Star Game. Don't laugh. You have to do research here, Mike. Yeah, he does. Otherwise, you'll lose a lot of money before the game even starts. I don't know who Luke Bryan is. Was it a fast 1.59, or did it seem like he was on pace? Well, I think he kind of took his time,

but you have to think that he's going to add 15 seconds at least for the Super Bowl. He's going to flex his muscles a little bit. There's going to be a little more of a crowd he's going to add 10 15 seconds at least in the super bowl milk milk the ovation muscles a little bit there's going to be a little more of a crowd he's going to have to compete with they'll see the he's going to time it so would the jets come overhead you know so you like the over parlayed with the jessica not knowing who luke bryan is yes the fighter last time i was in houston for the super bowl beyonce sung so it was the greatest national anthem i've ever heard sung but But I thought the roof was closed. He's got a tough actor.

He's got a tough actor. Oh, right, right. We need to figure that out. You know, that was crazy about the Houston, the Pats Carolina, is not having any idea what happened with Nipplegate. Yeah. Because it was pre-Twitter, and it was like the cell phone reception was terrible. And, you know, the game ends, and we're like, oh, my God, we did it again. And then you leave, and everybody's talking about Jada Jackson's nipple.

It's like, my team just won the Super Bowl. What happened? The lady sitting next to my wife and I, we were in the end zone seats watching the game. And as soon as it happened, she's like, oh, my God, her nipple came out. Like, I don't know how she could have saw it. She'd have been a hell of a spy or an ex-scout. Great eyesight. Tremendous.

I never saw anything. I was still mesmerized by bernice's by beyonce's uh i call bernice's i always call i always this is great no i always call her bernice 1930s it's a joke in my house i always call her bernice i might have a rival for mispronunciations though simmons and i were at the uh we were at the blackout game right yes and that happened I remember everyone was worried

everyone's texting their loved ones who knew they didn't know if it was a terrorist attack or what and I was worried that I wasn't going to be able to bet the game live

in the third quarter I'm like damn it I'm going to run out of juice on my phone I don't care about the family they'll figure it out on their own

that was when I pulled off the best prank of my life and Sal was so jealous of it what was it the CEO of Twitter was in the box I don't care about the family. They'll figure it out on their own. That was when I pulled off the best prank of my life. And Sal was so jealous of it. What was it? The CEO of Twitter was in the box. And I'm looking at my phone and I go, God, what happened to Twitter? It's down. And he had the most panicked look at his phone.

He's like grabbing his phone. Of course, it's working. You were so proud of me. He was like, you had trained me for that moment for 10 solid years. God bless you. All right, more props. All right, let's do more. Will any player of Falcon or Patriots roster be seen kneeling during the national anthem

no minus 200 yes plus 150 oh i would say yes i'm all in on no you're in on no not on the no pats will be doing it we would have heard of it by now oh they would have done it i mean now to do it now you look like you're just doing it for the for the attention yeah exactly what if one of them drops their bible and it just goes to pick it up and they're accidentally kneeling? That's always a possibility. There's not a lot of Bibles on the sidelines. Really? See, I don't know.

These are the things we need to know. I'm glad he's here. I thought there were a lot. Okay, who will Donald Trump pick to win the game? He's being interviewed. This is true. Is that true? One to ten odds, he takes the Patriots.

Tate's laughing his ass off. What's so funny, Tate? He's laughing that Donald Trump's the president. He just found out. So they're interviewing Trump before the game? They do it when every president gets interviewed. He agreed. He's not a very public man. This is unbelievable.

He agreed to an interview. Just this one time. That's like a gimme putt, though. He's going to pick the Patriots, right? I guess you could lose if he doesn't pick anyone, but if he picks anyone, it'll be the No, he'll pick the Patriots. That bet shouldn't even be a bet. And plus, Trump would probably bet it. Yeah, you're right.

And we're like, what are the odds? He can really make $2,000. Cut into the deficit here. There's also five to two odds that President Trump bans brown footballs from appearing in the game. Brown footballs? Yeah, yeah. You made that up. footballs you made that up

all right um footballs uh Matty Ice over under two mentions of Matty Ice during the game can we put that that nickname to you know that you know why he's Matty Ice right I don't get that so in college he used to drink natural ice which is called Mat Ice. And they started calling him Matty Ice because Natty Ice was his beer. And now it's morphed into this whole different story that, oh, he's so cool, he's Matty Ice. It's like Joe Mathias. I would want a better nickname. He just likes bad beer. Wouldn't you want a better nickname?

Yeah, you would think so. Kenny Stabler, one of the most effeminate quarterbacks, was named the Snake. Right. Come on. Let's get a new nickname. All right. Giselle Bunchen, how many times will she be shown on the telecast? One and a half is the over-under.

If they win, I would say at least two. Afterwards, yeah. During the game, don't they show? During the game, I would say one. That's a hard one. They have it right. It's tough. Low profile.

15 to 1 odds, President Trump signs an executive order declaring Gisele his wife during halftime. Could you do it for 12 hours before it gets overturned? On odds, President Trump signs an executive order declaring Gisele his wife during halftime. Oh. Yeah. That's a good one. Could you do it for 12 hours before it gets overturned? Well, everyone's not paying attention. She's got an ACL. That's where we'll do it. Will the word lacrosse be said on TV during the live broadcast?

No question. Lock that down. Yes? Lock it down. One to three. It's minus 300. Joe Buck knows about this now, though, right? Yeah, yeah.

They almost know. I heard he did a podcast today, and he found out that was a bet, and he was laughing about it. Oh, did he? Yeah. Okay. To bet. If Hogan does something, they got to tell the back story to Hogan. Right. I heard he did a podcast today, and he found out that was a bet, and he was laughing about it. Oh, did he? Yeah. If Hogan does something, they've got to tell the back story to Hogan. Right.

But it has to be during the game. It doesn't have to be for the 12-hour pregame show. During the game, right, yeah. I have a great Hogan prop that I love for later. Yeah, there's a lot on him. All right, I'll get through these. Okay, now this is one I think Mike could help us on because he knows the inside info. If the Patriots win, will Brady, Belichick, or Kraft be seen shaking Roger Goodell's hand on TV?

All three. All three, yes. All three, yes. Really? It's the ultimate FU. Wow. Yeah. Yes is minus 180.

You shake his hand and you look him in the eye. Because the story continues if you don't. Yeah. You do it. The best way to say FU is to win. You win and you shake his hand. But they'll already have won. They could say it in all different ways. But they kill the story. The best way to say F you is to win. You win and you shake his hand. But they'll already have won. They could say it in all different ways.

But they'll kill the story. The story ends. Yeah. No, the story's going to keep going because when Kraft takes the mic, it's going to be incredible. It will? Oh, he will have a pre-prepared barb ready to go that he will screw up as he's saying it. I love it. But he will have one.

I promise you. There is a Kraft prop. Which number is bigger? Patriots first downs or the age of Robert Kraft's girlfriend? So it would be about 25 first downs for the Pats? 19 and a half. The girlfriend's older. She is?

She's late 20s. That's an easy bet. She has fake ID. I don't know if that's... I would change that bet to the over under of the first Pats touchdowns uniform number. Over under her age. First downs is a misleading stat too. I would change that bet to the over-under of the first Pat's touchdowns uniform number. Oh. It's an over-under her age. Oh, I see.

First downs is a misleading stat, too. Yeah. Because, like, if you make a lot of big plays, you only get one first down for, like, a 40-yard play. Like, they're only good if you're the Kansas City Chiefs offense, where it takes you three downs to get a first down, you know? I love that. Mike's least favorite offense is the Kansas City three downs to get a first down offense. I hate that offense so much. I like that Mike's taking this ridiculous prop seriously.

He's doing exactly what he's been amazing so far. You want me to break it down? I'm breaking it down. No, that's good. Phenomenal job by Mike. Yellow is the favorite for the Gatorade color. Plus 225. I don't remember yellow that much.

Do you have red? Sure. Red has kind of been a power color lately. I like red. A lot of dresses in red lately. My wife's been on it. She's saying it's a big power color. Power color for the Super Bowl.

Power, sexy color. That's same for Gatorade. Clear is three to one. Oh, no. Maybe you trump the yellow liquid that's sitting in everyone's mind. Did Belichick tell them enough with the Gatorade showers? I don't even think they did one after the AFC title game. No, I didn't see one.

I don't remember seeing one. They did one after the last Super Bowl. I'm sure they'll do one after the Super Bowl if they win. If they win. I remember. Didn't they do it in Arizona? I thought we did it in Arizona. I was in a frenzy.

I still wasn't sure. Do they have over under beers? Jamie Collins is going to drink there in the game with his friends? Is he watching his car being oiled and all these random people? I'm sure he's going to buy all the beer he can. He's got enough money now. Is he? Yeah. 26 million guaranteed. Really? Yeah. That was to buy all the B-R-E-K. He's got enough money now. Is he? Yeah.

$26 million guaranteed. Really? Yeah. That was the problem all along. To stay in Cleveland. He just didn't have the money. Okay. No, he didn't.

He's getting high. Now he's better. College guy's buying it for him. Lady Gaga. Yeah. Now, Edge of Glory was 8 to 1 to be her first song. Yeah. Now it's down to minus 140.

So there's a leak. Oh, that sounds like inside info. There's a leak there. So stay away from that. now it's down to minus 140. Oh, that sounds like inside info. There's a leak there. Now, in my mailbag on Friday, a Pats fan theorized that she's going to sing Telephone and put a Brady jersey on and break the telephone during the performance. Oh, that's great.

I could see her doing it. That would be fun to bet on. I would say that's probably like plus 300. Is there a prop bet that Tony Bennett's going to sing with her? No, that's a good one. That should be up there. You have inside info? No.

I was just asking. Let him dream. No, but it does say, oh, Tony Bennett. Just trying to get more Italians on the stage. That's all. Tony Bennett and Bernice will be performing a duet. That's the truth. You asked my sons.

That's what I call them all the time. You're so in my dad's corner right now. Will Bolte. my dad has not called martellus bennett the correct name for four and a half months which will be longer on sunday total running

time of luke bryan's version of the national anthem or total time we see claire dane's lip quivering in the new episode of homeland oh i thought you're the only one watching

homeland anyway i'm in i'm in oh you are i'm doing like six other things while i'm watching but i feel like it's you don't have to pay attention yeah no you do though i don't know what's going on it's a six screen experience you can have five other screens going yeah it's pretty easy it's not like it's so far below what it's been but it's easy and it's moving at a snail's pace right right right so i'm just waiting it out i know i was done when when for like the

third straight season they pretended that claire danes was just this wily sex pot that no man could resist no matter how bad it might be for their career like i'm out the great one last night was in this spoiler here was that she actually did something that caused harm to somebody else because she didn't listen to the rules how many times are we going to follow that she takes matters into her own hand yes i mean you know and, and people are surprised when she does it. Next season, she's going to get hired by Roger Goodell. All right.

I think the answer is no to all these. 76 or more points combined to break the Super Bowl record. Yes is 11 to 2. It's five and a half to one. The record is 76? 76, yeah. Who did that?

Who was 76? 76, that's a lot. There was a 55-21 there, right? Oh, that must have been the Denver-San Francisco. Right, yeah. Who did that? Who was 76? 76, that's a lot. There was a 55-21 in there, right? Wasn't that? Oh, that must have been the Denver-San Francisco. Right, okay. Yeah, the one, I think, in the Superdome. What was your Jackie Smith game?

How about the San Diego of 66? 35-31? Yeah. How about the San Diego-Denver one? 49-21 or something? Yeah, I mean, that was a blowout, too. 49-24, it must have been the Steve. Is that what it was?

Oh, no, 49-26. That's what it was the steve young super yeah uh stan humphries block punt yes it's six to one nah missed extra point yes three to one so that one's interesting because stevie g has missed i think four or five this year and i'm nervous every time he kicks him indoors although that you know the this turf is kind of a weird turf too it's not like i like – I know that George Toma came in and put the new sod in, so it's going to be hard to see. But there should be no wind or anything like that.

It should be an easy field goal, an extra point. Really? You would think. All right, now we're on to the ones you could actually bet in Vegas. Oh, you have a read. Yeah. I mean, Valentine's Day is coming up fast, so stop procrastinating. Secure your gift for your loved one right now. You have a loved one. I mean, Valentine's Day is coming up fast. Stop procrastinating. Secure your gift for your loved one right now.

You have a loved one. I do. You're a longtime wife, Melissa. I have money for her, I hope. After this, you can get her gorgeous flowers from Books. Books delivers to all 50 states, and they even offer free delivery on weekdays when you register at books.com. B-O-U-Q-S.com. Books pricing is transparent, meaning no gimmicks no hidden fees

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Offer code Bill. Back to the props. These are the big ones. That's how you spell Bill? B-O-U-Q-S. B-I-L-L. Magic Johnson used to spell B-E-W-L. B-what?

He used to call me B-U. Oh, nice. And I used to love it. And the way he said my name was like the way I've wanted somebody to say it my whole life. I just loved it. So Jacoby started calling me it. So I loved it so much. Now Jacoby still calls me Bill.

Is magic your special someone? You should buy him flowers and books. I'm going to send him some books. You should. Why not? There you go. All right. So now here's one.

Will either team score in the first six and a half minutes of the game? We went over Brady's first quarters. So six and a half minutes means the team that gets the ball first has to at least get a field goal. I guess so. Yeah. I guess at four and a half minutes you could punt or something. And then that's a fast touchdown coming back.

Seattle took a long drive to score. Look, these two teams are the two highest scoring first quarter teams. First point differential, first quarter differential in the NFL. So you'd have to believe one of them is going to score early in the first possession. Even as tight as we think they might play it,

it's tough. Lombardi believes that Belichick is going to prioritize jumping out to a lead. Does that mean he would not defer with the coin toss in the first half? The first time he didn't do it was against Pittsburgh because I think he wanted to set the pace of the game, and I think this would be another similar game. The only thing I would hesitate on that is typically Atlanta's, if you look at Matt Ryan in the two-minute,

his average per completion in two-minute is low at 5.6. And the reason for that is because where do they make most of their explosive plays, play action pass, throw the ball down the field? In two-minute, you can't run those plays. So it's more checkdowns. Even though they scored against Green Bay in the two minute drill they're not a built for two minute drill type of team the way teams play it so they don't have their plaques and passes so they only scored because green bed didn't tackle the receivers i'm waiting for somebody to do it

and my point on you tackle all the receivers the end of the third and my point on that if belichick were to defer he would know that they're not great in the two-minute. Which helps the Pats. Which helps the Pats. And I would get the ball twice with them sitting on the bench, which is a great defense. I get the ball twice at the end of the half and the start of the second half, and maybe I could make up a point differential.

This is the theory. This all started because of Peyton Manning. The best way to defend Peyton Manning was to have the ball when he couldn't do anything with it. That's why the deferring started. And I think that that would be the other alternative. You said something interesting with being physical and tackle the receivers, and that makes all the difference. Yes.

And I think it would make more of a difference if the weather were a factor. What's the spread if this game is in Giants Stadium like Manning had to go through against Seattle? Is this 5.5, 6? This is the best case for the Falcons because this is the 2009 saints blueprint right got to stay indoors the whole time never had to battle the elements and then they played in miami and they had to rain but i mean for the most part that was a out that was a great weather stadium for them this is perfect for atlanta i will say though they can run the ball right you know and if they were outdoors i'm sure they would change what they were doing.

But it's not the same. They're not as fast. Actually, they actually played better on the road this year. They're 6-2. I think they were 6-2 on the road. They lost. They were worse at home than they were on the road. Atlanta this year.

Yeah. Really? Yeah. They lost three home games this year. And they had a couple of the losses that they gave up. Mike was showing me some of the numbers. They gave up big offensive days. How many first downs did Kansas City have have like 32 or something yeah kansas city i mean and

the yardage like the teams that beat them always out gained up yard not always out gained them in cumulative effect of the yards so to beat them you have to have a good offense you guys have been talking i could tell he's trying to make you feel good about a lot of these things right i'm just looking at the numbers sal Sal. I don't hedge the numbers. My guard's up. Just the numbers. My guard's always up at the Super Bowls. All right, here's something.

I like this. Now, it's a heavy VIG. It's yes is minus 250. Will either team score in the final two minutes of the first half? Six of the last eight Super Bowls, the answer's been yes. Yep. The Pats' last four games, there's been a score in the final two minutes. Atlanta's last three, there's been a score in the final two minutes. Atlanta's last three, there's been a score in the final two minutes.

So there's a couple that I really like that play off this. Go ahead. I think the Pats have just, for the entire Belichick-Brady era, once they got going, second quarter has been a great quarter for them. I don't know why. I don't know whether it's just the way the game, flow of the game, whatever. Pats' second quarter TD is, I think, minus 300. I had that circled, too.

And then there was – I thought there was one more. Will the Pats – will Brady throw a touchdown in the second quarter? I think there's one of them. There's a couple second quarter bets. And I don't know. They're really good in second quarters. It's been a Belichick tradition. And I think the game – these good games are always decided

in the last four minutes of both halves. And I think that to enhance that bet, I would say somebody's going to score in the last four minutes, which will basically be the last two minutes. What about this? Which number will be higher, the total number of first-half points scored by the Patriots or number of Houston area strippers on Gronk's party bus?

It's a push? I don't know. I just want Gronk to behave himself. I think if we win the Super Bowl, I really think Belichick. I mean, that's just how he rolls, man. Thanks for the memories, Gronk. No. You're heading to San Diego.

Really? Yeah. That's how he rolls. He's done it for two decades. Wow. Doesn't pay for past performance. The only problem with that is he wants a new contract. Yeah. Obviously, it's hard to ask for a new contract when you've been hurt.

He's always wants a new contract. Yeah. Obviously, it's hard to ask for a new contract when you've been hurt. He's always wants a new contract. So to trade a guy that wants a new contract, that's always very difficult. Like, that's what happened with Martellus Bennett. He wanted a new contract. We took him at the Patriots saying, who cares if he wants a new contract? Football players play football.

We traded for him anyway. Then you control the trade. This is a little bit more difficult. And the other thing with Martellus Bennett, I think the most excited Patriots for this whole run are him and Deion Lewis. If you watch the Bennett interviews, the quotes, anything, this is like the greatest four months of his life. And Deion Lewis, who only had, I think, 11 yards in the AFC title game,

was sobbing in joy in front of his locker. So I think they have a chance to bring back Bennett for a discount. They can, but he's been a bit of a disappointment. He's been hurt. Yeah, I know. What was his injury? He had like a fractured. He had a bad knee, then he had the ankle.

Why would you say he's a disappointment? Well, on my day, you just played through that, Mike. Why was he a disappointment? What do you mean? Everyone said when the two of them are out there. Don't listen to everyone. Listen to us. Wait a minute.

Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Everybody says when they lose Gronk, when they lose Gronk, they fall down the tubes. They're undefeated without Gronk. But no thanks to Bennett, I don't think. Why not? He's been a defender. You're a numbers guy.

Where are his numbers? What did he do? Well, I don't think it's the pass catching as much as the run blocking. Is it? Okay. Plus the threat vertically down the field when they spread you out and he's on the field. He can catch seam routes. I mean, it becomes a problem. If you've got got matt lingo in there or you've got cam fleming

playing tight end there's no threat and he's definitely he's definitely been playing hurt so i think he won out of their respect all right how about this shortest touchdown of the game over under is one and a half yards wrote this one down you like under yes yeah the one yard touchdown is a blunt brady specialty one of them is going to get it. What do you think, Mike? So many pass interference calls these days in the end zone. I would say that's a good obvious. That was one of my favorite ones.

All right. It's only hit six of the last ten Super Bowls, the under, but I do like that a lot. Let's see. Will the Patriots score a touchdown? We touched second quarter. I like that. You know, I was thinking about that one-yard touchdown

with the first guy to score a touchdown bet, which I think the Patriots, if they scored first, are the toughest team to predict in a while because literally anyone on the roster could catch the touchdown and be like, oh, Devlin caught it. So you would think, oh, Blunt's got it. But Brady will throw it to anybody. It could be Nate Solder to play against Indianapolis. Let me just say this.

Six of the last eight Super Bowls, the first touchdown has gone to a wide receiver. I think Maroney was the running back, and then there was a recovery in the end zone. That dude. Yeah. I believe that's how it was in the last eight. I pin SB42. He's one of my blamers. Oh, really?

He was terrible. I mean, I'm sure he's a nice guy but man did he kill us never forget maroney i didn't know that barney's just gonna stay silent no no i mean i mean you basically traded maroney to the to the colts for a first round pick trent richardson was maroney 2.0 was that was the third pick overall maroney was maroney shared time with your with your guy marion barber uh-huh right minnesota and they ran a one-back set and he they both were very effective third pick overall, Maroney was. Maroney shared time with your guy, Marion Barber, in Minnesota, and they ran a one-back set, and they both were very effective. But everybody thought Maroney had more skill,

and that's why Barber goes in the fourth. He went in the first. The better player was Barber. Even though Parcells would tell you you have to knock him down twice for Barber to get four yards, but the reality was he was a good player. How many rushing yards does the Patriots need to have to win this game? It's not as important. That was one of the things that I wrote down here.

I think it's more about completions and execution, moving the chains, than it is how many actual yards they get. What they get in the fourth quarter to keep the ball away from Atlanta, that's the more important yards. So Blunt is like 59. a half for total rushing yards i think they use blunt more than lewis in this game just to guess i think because they have a bigger o-line i think the first quarter will be more lewis to spread them out force them into base formation spread them out then i think it'll be blunt to win the game because you got to tire them out

that's the one thing nobody really talks about in football games is the ability to tire the opponent out right but this is pounding the ball. I think, and I love Lewis for a lot of these over props because I think, like you said, the Patriots version of pounding the ball could be a screen to Lewis or something. But the thing is, Lewis and Blunt run the same runs. So if you're the defensive coordinator of the Falcons, if Lewis is in the game and Blunt's in the game,

the same runs are going to play. If White's in the games, you're playing draws and screens. I see. So that's what makes those two so effective is their ability to run the same way. Huh? Stay away from a total with one of those two guys because they're going to be a mix of matching. Right. But I think early it's going to be Lewis because I think they're going to need the speed on the field

to take advantage of the Falcon defense. I think they're going to run the ball a lot in this game. You do? That's my expert opinion. I do. Because they have a bigger offensive line. Largest lead, you go over under 16 and a half. You know, I saw that one on there.

I would have said under. I think because both teams can score, I think it will be until the fourth quarter or until one of the teams get control of the game. And also, you have the history of the Pats in the Super Bowl. This is the seventh one. I don't rams 14 to 3 might have been yeah the eagles i think was they were up by 10 or 13 in that game i don't ever remember them being up by more than two touchdowns in a super the other thing the patriots grew up that other bet which i love is will there be three straight

scores by either team and the patriot super bowl Super Bowl, it's hard to come by. Usually for them, it's like last two of the second quarter and then the first one of the third quarter. Can I just tell you how much Sal loves the biggest lead bet? I know, I do. It's like his version of a gambling hot fudge sundae. I go over and over, right? It gets to 14. He always goes over.

As soon as they have the – it's just he's on the edge. You just love it. Wouldn't it be nice to just – one team goes up by 17. I don't have to watch the rest of the game. That's it. I could drink beers with you and Collins. Collins? What did I say?

Jamie Collins. Jamie Collins, yeah. Jamie Collins. He's buying, yeah. He's buying. Yeah, why not? Oh, this is interesting, actually. Speaking of over under 13 and a half F-bombs unleashed by Lombardi

after realizing the bakery gave him mini cannolis instead of full-size. Lock that down. So upset by that. That would disturb me. You don't like that? Yeah, I would bet he over on that. No, Talion likes a mini cannoli. That's great.

All right, so you like Brady to run the ball, so you would maybe, or the Patriots would run the ball. Brady, 24.5 completions. You might go under there? No, I would go over that. Remember, we did this. Go over. Yeah, I would go over too. I think when they play teams like this, when they play teams that have great

offenses and not so great defenses, the execution of their offense is always really good when they play the Colts. Look at them attempts they played Andrew Luck and the Colts. That's a pretty good offense. Right. I mean, not this year, but in the past. So I think that this is similar to when they played the Colts. That's a pretty good offense. Not this year, but in the past. I think that this is similar to when they played the Colts. Really

good offense. Defense that's marginal. Brady throws a lot of completions. They're going to take the profits in the game. They're going to take the four-yard gains and keep moving the chains. We went big on that in the Seattle Super Bowl. We went over, right? We went over on completions. Remember, he started out a little rocky and then

the second half just came on. Well, they were behind behind how often are they behind in a super bowl any game i remember passing it and being super excited and like oh wait a second the super bowl is at stake i should be focused on that i would be surprised if he had less than 24 completions is that right yeah i would be shocked wow okay that's a shocker it's a first okay dion lewis i said i like all his overs yes he will score his plus 170. Receiving yards, 22 and a half. I like that. Well, 39 and a half total rushing yards seems very low.

Yeah, because he could break one. That's like two nine-yard runs. He's halfway there. I think he's getting a couple out of the backfield. But if you're the Falcons, aren't you just, you're like, that guy's not beating us out of the backfield catching the ball. But remember, the Falcons are, you know Falcons are going to place a man to man, and if he gets isolated on one of those linebackers,

whether it's Deion Jones or Campbell, then he's going to have an advantage, and they're going to throw the ball. And when they do play zone, there's an area of the zone that's really voided that they'll throw the ball to him. I mean, it'll be, like I said, it'll be a profit play. Throw the ball to Lewis in the flat, throw the ball to Lewis over there, let him gain 12, 14, and go. And they spread them out for the indicator.

And they spread it out to see if you're in man or zone. And he gets caught up in one of those matchups. And they're in man. It's going to be deadly. Playing a zone against Brady is like sharing a pizza with house. Yeah. I mean, you can do it. I've heard that before.

You can do it. It's going to work out poorly. You're going to end up with two slices. Unless you're on a diet. It's going to work out poorly. You're going to end up with two slices. Unless you're on a diet, it's going to work out poorly. Just picking the cheese off it. If you look at the numbers of Brady's when he's played against the Seattle style of defense, which is what Atlanta, it's staggering. Yeah, he's been pretty good.

And the completions. They don't have the type of team. That's the 4-3 scheme. So it's a cover three scheme that plays a lot of cover man. They don't have Richard Sherman. Nobody's talked about Desmond Trufant being out. That's because nobody really exploited it. But you go back to that Seattle game, and I'd say, again,

they were behind a lot. You were disappointed in the Patriots' offense a little up until the mid, late third quarter. Well, you know, because the offensive line couldn't block them. Yeah, that O-line was on. Until they got tired, it was the only time we could move the ball. We figured it out. Yeah.

Okay. We needed Edelman's third concussion of that game really rallied the team together. That was it? If you watch the tape, it's not the first one or the second one,

it's the third one. He comes up to me right now, Edelman, seven and a half receptions. I thought you were going to say concussions. I got scared. No, no, no. It's right there.

Depends. The thing about this Patriots team is you never know who it's going to be. Edelman is always going to get the ball. Brady trusts Edelman. He's always going to get the ball. And there's going to be a lot of – if they're in man, there will be a tough matchup for them to cover him in man.

If he's in zone, he's going to get the ball quite a bit. Seven and a half is a lot. I remember Jerry Rice at six and a half, seven for some of the Super Bowls. Julio Jones was six and a half. And I actually like the over for that for an unconventional reason. I subscribe to the Mike Lombardi theory of they're not going to let him go deep. They're fine with the seven, eight yards. If they run him over the middle on that play like what got him the touchdown,

there's going to be three guys there ready. And I think they're going to give him – he might end up – I think their goal for him, correct me if i'm wrong would be like 10 catches for 84 yards yeah that's like their dream scenario right remember in the in the in the in the eagle game where he had the most catches he had 10 catches he averaged 13 and a half yards yeah so amount of catches though doesn't matter it's the big plays you have to limit the the big plays. Hogan was 9 for 180. If Julio ends up with that, then the Pats are going to have to score 40 points to win. Then the over is implied. I think the fishiest prop on the board is Edelman minus a half a yard over Julio Jones.

Looking at that immediately, you might think Julio Jones. They're begging you to take Julio Jones there, Mike, but no. Edelman will have more yards. You like that, don't you, Sean? Yeah, I do. Yeah, I could see that. That's a good one. Now, you like Chris Hogan. I do. I had one of my favorite ones is

the longest Chris Hogan reception over under, what do you think it is, Mike? 18. 23 and a half. Wow. And it's hit four of his last six games. Once a game, Brady hits them for between 25 and 35. Right. I like that one.

If they play a lot of man-to-man, which is what they did against the Packers, which is what they did against Seattle, and they were able to get away with it in both games playing at home, Hogan will have a 23-yard game. He'll get there. He'll get there. All right. But if they play zone, maybe he won't.

A number of different Patriots have a rushing attempt. Four and a half. I go under. Yeah, that seems like a lot. Maybe the James White and the Brady one. That's it. You'd have to have a fullback. Well, the only thing would be Devlin on short yards.

I would say there's no more than those four are going to touch the ball. Although, Edelman, does he count as a receiver on a return? On a reverse, yeah. Hold on. I keep telling you to stop wasting money on an expensive takeout. Are you a takeout guy, Sal? Of course, yeah. Are you a takeout guy, Mike?

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Really? Yeah. You have a kitchen, Tate? He's 23. There's no way. Tate, do you have a dorm-style kitchen? Tate's kitchen has to look like... Are the dishes in the sink?

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Just go to blueapron.com slash BS. Blue Apron, a better way to cook. All right. There you go. All right. Oh, this is interesting. Over under two and a half Patriots, very white receivers added to Trump's cabinet in the offseason. That's way over, right?

They are looking at Chris Hogan for a big position. Excellent. All right. Matt Ryan, 320 and a half. Can you imagine either one of these teams will be the first team that have to go to the White House for this? Oh, I know. The Cubs got it under the wire, right? Just at the wire.

There could be some Patriots that might be excited to go visit the Donalds. That's true. Matt Ryan, 320 and a half. If you like him to play catch-up football, he might go over or no? I think Matt Ryan will have a lot of yards. I think he's going to have a lot of attempts. Right. That's high, though, right?

Yeah. Who do you think the number two wide receiver for receiving yards will be on the falcons after okay so i think they'll play it i think they'll double they'll double um julio high low i the guy that plays sanu has to be a physical guy and kind of reroute sanu eric row you know i think it's could be logan ryan on sanu they I think it could be Logan Ryan on Sanu. They played against each other in college. Hold on. Sanu was detained at the Houston airport. I'm sorry.

What? Yeah. I'm sorry. And then, you know, then Taylor Gabriel. I would say, you know, like I know this sounds crazy. Put Malcolm Butler on Taylor Gabriel. Put Logan Ryan on Sanu. Oh, wow.

Just take Taylor Gabriel out. And then take Taylor. And then now, because those tight ends aren't going to. I don't know what their prop bets are, those tight ends. But let them catch it. It's like the other day, Jesse James, let him catch 100 balls. You know, they're not going to beat you. How much does it affect Kyle Shanahan that he's about to get this

Niners job, but he's also preparing for the Super Bowl? Does that like 10% affect? 20? I think it's a hard thing to do. He's trying to put together a staff. He obviously hired a general manager. He interviewed them. But, you know, I'm sure what he tried to do is is put the game plan together last week

tuesday wednesday thursday get that done and then then it's just the execution of it but you know mike wanted to hire kyle shanan in cleveland i know i did i got him as the oc but you you were you thought he could have been head coach i thought it was a great coach mike loves him our friend alec loved to go head over heels in love with him yeah i think he's really i think he's really talented. I think this will be a challenge for him there because there's no quarterback. And that's what he'll be able to do is to find a young quarterback. Like he identified Kirk Cousins.

Right. And so he's going to have to find somebody. Look, he won seven games in Cleveland, Brian Hunter. Can he identify Jimmy Garofalo for the number two pick in the draft? I think he would love Jimmy Garofalo. I think he would. We'll give them 32 or 31 if they lose. And our fourth.

The Browns won't do it. It makes too much sense. Oh, the Browns should trade a 12-pick overall. Yeah, I know. It makes too much sense. 32 and Jimmy. They should trade

the 12-pick overall. Sure. They're not going to get a quarterback that's going to be Jimmy Garoppolo. Mike, what about 32 and Jimmy for number two and a fourth? Would you do that

if you're Belichick? I think he would do it. You don't need any more picks. But then what he would do is, like you said, he would then take that one and trade it all the way back down to 30. Go back, yeah. Belichick, if he had the second pick, it would be seven more trades. You're right.

We'd end up with the 29th pick again somehow. And 17 second routers. I like Devonta Freeman to score a touchdown. Seven in the last nine games. He's good. Devonta Freeman's good. Was he on your running back list, Mike? Yeah, he was.

Actually, I was in Cleveland at the time, and he was perfect for what Kyle did. In Cleveland, he fits perfectly what they did. They picked him in the fourth round. He was really perfect. How did they get him from Cleveland? Because I had left, and then I don't think they liked him as much in Cleveland. They picked Terrence West in the third round. I was gone from that draft.

Why did you leave? You should have just stayed. Because the owner told me to get my shine box. Just hang out. Who cares? All right, Julio Jones, we talked about six and a half. He seems to have four in the first quarter every game. But if Butler shuts him down, you don't want to do it.

I was trying to think, is there been a scarier receiver to go against the Pats in a huge playoff game? And the only one I could think of is somebody I wasn't scared of going into the game, but Owens in the Super Bowl. So it was like, oh, he's got a broken leg. He's going to be limping around. And Owens was a beast as that game went along. I don't know how he was doing it.

They played Marvin Harrison. The guy's in the Hall of Fame. He's really good. Reggie Wayne's been good. I mean, there's a lot of good players you play against. How about two weeks ago, Antonio Brown? But you just knew it wasn't gonna you didn't trust rothlisberger i think julio i didn't trust rothlisberger as much i think julio is terrifying yeah right when he has that when he catches us nine yarders over the middle and he's going the only thing i will

say the more that would worry me is the fact that he does come off the field a lot and there is he's prone to have that problem with his foot and his toe. Take two, three drives off. Maybe he's a step on his foot. I think this is the best hottest quarterback you've played in maybe ever, right? It seems like it. I really think – All right, let's say the Pats win by 20.

Our takeaway afterwards would be, wow, we totally overrated those Seattle Green Bay teams we should have known. Right. I think that's in play. I don't want to bring this subject up, but I think if Dallas played Atlanta, Dallas would beat Atlanta. Don't bring that up. I'm sorry. Don't bring that up.

But it's true. I think Dallas would have played them. Can you tell Sal how many carries Elliott should have had in that game? Well, I haven't had a chance to discuss it with you, but I think it's really one of the – Let's get over it. It's one of Jason Garrett's worst moments. You know, I watched three minutes of that Pro Bowl.

And by the way, thank you, Bill. I did bet the under for the NFC. 42.5 points, I bet the under. Congratulations. I couldn't look at him smirk the whole time. I couldn't do it. Just too much smirking from Jason Garrett. So do you think he should have had 35 carries, 38?

I think, like I said earlier on the podcast, it's all about the pace and how to play the style of game. I think if you watch enough basketball games and watch college games, you have to know when you play your opponent, this is how we have to play the game to win. That's what the Patriots will do. We are controlling the pace. Where Jason Garrett just played the game as if we're just going to play the game. Yeah.

Oh, you're giving us this? Oh. I mean, he spikes the ball with 40 seconds to go. Oh, that's ridiculous, yeah. You know? But, Mike, far be it for me to defend Jason Garrett. I like that. I like how this is going.

Most of our troubles. But it took us 59 minutes to catch up. How much clock do you want to kill with Zeke Elliott? I think it was fine. He could make a big play at any time. I mean, you have to put the ball in the back. Plus, they were playing. They were so unsound on defense.

Like, if you just looked at the numbers, sometimes some sides they had three guys on, sometimes they had five. I mean, they were in balance. They looked sloppy. That wasn't a good defense. You know, ever see Curley and the Three Stooges? Yes, sure. Okay.

So Curley's in the boat, all right, and Moe and Larry are with him. And there's a hole in the boat. So Curley has the bright idea to drill another hole to let the water from the first hole out. That's Dom Caper's defense right there, okay? That's what he was doing against the Cowboys. He was drilling one hole to let the water in the other hole, and you kept the boat afloat. Thank you.

Amazing. I think that was the most effective 80-year-old reference that I've ever had. It's true. I love that. We have to put it on YouTube. Do you know the Three Stooges? Yes.

Okay, there you go. They're a checkmate right there, Sal. Mike, you're going under 13.5 first half points for the Falcons. That seems low. It's ballsy to go under, but if you like the under in the game, you kind of have to like that. If you think they're going to come out tight and all that stuff, 13.5. I think the crowd's going to be weird.

One of my theories for this game, the Pats, I just don't see the fans making the trip the same way. It's the seventh time. Everybody's kind of made their mecca to a Super Bowl at this point. So they're going to have the diehards. Atlanta, they're going to have Atlanta fans, but how many Falcons fans are there? Unless you're from Atlanta.

You're not in Sacramento growing up as an Atlanta fan. And I think it's going to be a weird crowd. Like there's going to be a lot of Houston fans and a lot of oil money there. And I think there's going to be a weird vibe. And I think that would affect both teams, right? The first half is just because we've been to Superbowl is where the energy just doesn't feel right. Right.

Nothing, you know, Glendale was like that. The Pat's giant. This is an RG stadium. There should be plenty of it. I don't know. Is that. The Pats Giants. This is NRG Stadium. There should be plenty of it. I don't know. Energy. Is that what it is? All right.

Falcons, Saks. How many? I'll ask you how many you think they'll get, and then we'll go by that. I would say two. Two. So total Saks is four, and that was one of the ones I had marked. Because Mike was the one who told me Matt Ryan's been hit most times in the league, 99 times.

And this is against – he's played – they played some good teams, but they also had some garbage teams on that schedule too. 99 times seems like a lot for a team that's in the Super Bowl. Because that's the weakness of the team is their offensive line. That's a little bit – that's why I compared them to the Colts. They're better than the Colts. The Colts don't have as great of receivers, Julio. But that's who they're a lot like. And so their offensive line is the liability of the team so

you go over four like i was thinking one and a half i go under one and a half falcon sacks i just don't i don't see brady getting hit as much five combined scenes all right brady will have the one play when mcdaniels gets cute and it doesn't work and he just eats it like lock that down right and then there might be the second one where he blindsides, somebody screws up. They will not. Let me say this to you. They will not out-trick Brady. Like, if he knows a blitz is coming, like Aaron Rodgers, that won't happen to them.

That felt like a Rodgers dig. I don't blame Rodgers for that. They didn't re-point the mic. So, if you don't re-point the mic, that's going to happen. The Patriots repoint the mic. Brady at the line is just not. Brady at the offensive line, his ability to just be like, oh, you're going to do this.

I'm going to do this. It's really, it was him and Peyton Manning, and who else can even do it? Well, Rodgers could do it. He just doesn't have a lot of volume in the offense to do it. Right. Because he doesn't have a running back back there. There's a little thing.

But, no, he can do it. It's not a long list is my point. No. And it's nice. I think Romo could do it. I feel like you guys are. When he's on the Chiefs next year. You guys are.

Why is this line only three? Really, everything's pointing to the Patriots. I'm not saying that's who I'm going with. I guess six and a half. I was pretty good this season. I was three and a half points off. I would have thought it was going to be. And I don't know Lions, but I thought it was going to be a six-point line.

You did. I mean, basically they're saying these teams are even and we're going to give the Patriots an advantage because they've been there before. I think it's a three-point game probably, but I thought the Pats would get more gambling respect, I guess is my point. I think it's an think it's a three-point game probably but i thought the pats would get more gambling respect i guess is my point i thought i think it's an either team wins again but as soundly as they beat in pittsburgh i mean first of all these two teams

the average margin of victory for the patriots is 15 and they're 14 wins in the regular season right and atlanta is like 12 13 so they're really high up they're 11 so they've blown out their opponents but like i said at the start, I mean, usually one of these offenses isn't going to play very well. Hold on. New sponsor, theblacktux.com. They've been looking great for a wedding or a special event.

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He's having a great time. Are you? I'm happy. He's really happy. The John Lynch, the John Lynch hiring. He's got a lot of texts about that today. I think a lot of what the hell is going on.

You wanted that to be your job. No, no, no, I'm fine. I'm really happy. I'm happy. But no,

I think it's, it's the, I think it's the league. I think a lot of it is, you know, the guys have worked really hard to become general managers and a guy who's been an ex-player who's never really been in a draft room before. I think it's a little – it's going to be a challenging job. And I just think it's kind of interesting how it went about. But, I mean, have more power to them and see if they can handle it.

Supposedly this now opens the door for Zaragusa to get a job yeah well anyone on tv now i think it minimizes the expertise that you have in a front office when you do something like this like it's saying to you you know anybody could do that so we'll just take an ex-player from the field and bring them up we're like ozzy newsome spent three three four years with us in cleveland learning the trade yeah you know when he first came up he'd be the first to tell you he had no idea some of the stuff that was going on because a player doesn't really know that when tate's running the ringer someday we'll be like yeah tate was yeah started out producing podcasts the kid just hustled and just worked his way up. Now he's on his third wife. Everything's great. He's an angel investor.

He's an angel investor. He's a billionaire. I'm rooting for it. I'm telling you now, I am. They should have a prop for that, for how long it's going to take. All right, now we go to the cross-sport one. You like these a little, Simmons. So we have a couple big ones left.

I have my prop of the Super Bowl. I'm not going to guarantee it because i don't want to get sued if it doesn't come through sued but it's the strong it's the strongest i felt about a super bowl prop in years like i saw it i was like what and i just kept looking at it thinking there was a typo or an error what is it you want me to do now oh no well should we wait because i'll have my Gary Russell problem. Let's wait. We'll wait until the tail end. We'll wait until the end. Patriots points minus two and a half over Isaiah Thomas points. Oh, that was it.

Oh, that's it? That was my lock of the year. Oh, great. That's it. You should give me a heads up. It's two and a half points. Somebody explain that to me. Somebody explain that to me.

So the bet is if you bet on Isaiah Thomas, which I think is the bet of the year. Not the broadcaster, the Celtics. The Celtics star who's been putting up between 34 and 45 every night, basically. He's getting to and at points. So if he finishes with 38, the Pats have to score 41 to beat him.

Ah, I got it. Is he playing the same night? But the last 20 games, he's basically been 34 a game. Is he playing the same night? Yeah. Same day. So you'll know what his point total is before. You'll know what the Patriots the last like 20 games he's basically been is he playing the same night yeah it's same yeah same day during the day so you'll know what his point total is you have to do before you'll know what the patriots have to be you'll know what they have to be so if the pats end up at 34 if he scores 32 or higher you cover it right i got it so on top of it who are they playing clippers don't they play

playing the clippers no chris paul right you have like uhJ. Redick, Jamal Crawford, all that stuff. But on top of it, they might make the Carmelo trade. Two of those guards might be in that trade that weekend. I'm getting in now. We'll talk later. All right. We'll talk later. All right.

So you like the Pats there. It's out of respect to the great crunch time story that Isaiah has given us. So you have the scoop that Carmelo's going where? I think if it happens, it's going to happen next week. And where to? I mean, that means that's happened in four days. In four days now? Well, five.

Oh, yeah, you're right. This weekend. Yeah, yeah. I think he's going to end up in the Clippers. Wow. I do. And you don't know. So he can't give it up.

He has him. No, I think J.J. Redick will be involved, and I think Austin Rivers. You're going to learn what sucks about working with for Bill. He gets inside information. He has to be coy about this stuff. I don't have inside information on this. I'm just a logical human being. But he's been working the trade calculator for three days in a row.

He's been working it from every way. It's got to be Cleveland or the Clippers, because those are the two that he wants to go to, and I think it's going to be the Clippers. I think it makes sense. It won't involve the 13. It's the same be Cleveland or the Clippers, because those are the two that he wants to go to. And I think it's going to be the Clippers. I think it makes sense. It won't involve the 13. It's the same thing with Romo. We can figure out where he's going to go, because it's where he wants to play.

Well, and I can't tell you about that either. I know. The fun part of that trade is Redick. You need a third team, but a bunch of teams could use J.J. Redick. Right. So whatever asset you get for the third team from Redick goes toward the Knicks, and it makes sense. Real quick, Mike. Can the Cowboys get – I'm worried about Jerry doing the wrong thing here

and not releasing Romo, and nothing can happen until he does with these other teams. They have to, right? They can't trade him because it's such a – Do you think he'll get a second round? Do you think he'll get a second round? They could post June 1 as cap. I don't think anybody's going to give him a second round.

I don't think so. I think the problem with trading him is he's got to agree to go. Yeah. So you need him involved with the trade. Sure. And he's going to want to – and the other team's going to want to talk to him and kind of give him a medical before they make a trade. So releasing him makes more sense.

It makes sense. I just don't know if he does. I think if he went to Jerry and said, Jerry, look, I want to play. I was a good soldier. I was a good soldier. You've got – it's Dak's team. I'm not going to come in here and compete, you know,, I want to play. I was a good soldier. I was a good soldier. It's Dak's team. I'm not going to come in here and compete with Dak. He's already predetermined.

You're leaving out one crucial point, though, and this is why I think he gets waived. If you're Romo, it's better off to get waived because the new team you're going to, instead of that big salary cap figure you're bringing and hogging their cap, you're getting paid anyway. Of course. You're the new team.

You're making minimum salary, whatever it is, and they can spend that money on one or two more guys he goes to a new team he won't make minimum salary he'll get a new deal oh yeah he could get a new deal that'll be good too say again and he'll he'll double dip because jerry's bonus money will stay in his pocket so the guarantees are not going away so he could get like another five million a year or something i think i think if he went somewhere to start say say he went to Kansas City, I think they would have to pay him somewhere between $10 and $14 million with a chance with incentives. Yeah, you're not going to get him on the cheap, no.

So you still think Kansas City is logical? I know. I mean, to me, if you put him on that field against the Steelers, the Chiefs would have been going to New England to play. And then Alex Smith becomes available, which is fun. Or, you know, well, you know, you got Alex Smith. You got – I mean, look, they really wanted Nick Foles to see what he could do, and then he kind of didn't really play very well.

So I think the issue is going to be – and then Houston's the other team. I wouldn't shame New Houston. So not Denver. You're saying Denver's out. I don't think Denver has the attitude to really want to embrace him. I think Denver wants to see if Paxton Lynch can be a player. I think that's their mindset. Can't shade him to Houston.

I'm worried about – that's what I'm worried about. Can't put him in Texas. I'm worried about Jerry saying that. Get him out of Texas. First of all, I do think they can maybe – there are eight teams that need quarterbacks. There's a bunch of them. Don't you think that honors a second-rounder in there somewhere? No, because I think you're buying a guy who you're not going to have a longevity with.

A second-rounder is going to have at least four years on your team, and it should start. Especially with who the cap is now, that second rounder. Those are gold. Those are gold. I think it's like a fifth rounder. The Vikings thought that Bradford was going to be a four-year starter. They gave up one to three.

They knew when Bridgewater got hurt, they knew that he was a two-year thing. So they had to make a move. And they have a team that's really good, whether you like Bradford or not, and that's a whole other podcast. that was but we argued about that at the time because you make that trade if you think we're gonna win the super bowl with this trade and that team wasn't even a playoff team i think that trade was a disaster fell apart they had a bunch of injuries but at least now they got into the offseason when they made the trade right well then they had a couple injuries after but right but the khalil got hurt right tackle got hurt smil got hurt. And they had a couple injuries after, but it wasn't great anyway. Right, tackle got hurt. Smith got hurt. But I think to me, Houston, to me, is the best place for him.

I do, too. But that's why I think Jerry's going to be reluctant to do it. I do. All right, we have some time left. Okay, let me go through these. Here's a good one. Tiger Woods' fourth-round bogeys against Matt Ryan touchdown passes. Oh, my God.

It's like they created a bet for Joe House. We got to get House in on this. Wow, that's a nice one. He had three bogeys a couple weeks ago in the fourth round. He had two bogeys in round two in this past tournament that he didn't make the cut for. If you like Ryan with, I don't know, two touchdowns. I had an opinion on this.

Now I can't even remember what the hell it is. I don't know. It's just fun. That's a fun one. I do like that one. Now, I never an opinion on this. Now I can't even remember what the hell it is. I don't know. It's just fun. That's a fun one. I do like that one. Now, I never see a boxing one. Yeah, Klitschko. Klitschko and Anthony Joshua combine finished rounds

versus Patriots and Falcons' first half points. I'm blowing your mind here, Lombardi. I'm trying to figure out all this. The first quarter point, sorry, is minus four and a half. If you think that'll go like seven rounds. So basically, like a third round knockout. Same Saturday night. So yeah, you have to make this before Saturday, I believe.

Klitschko. Guy's like 100. That's a tough one. I just like that boxing was involved. And now we get to the big odds ones. First player to score a touchdown. Yeah. Like I said. involved and now we get to the big odds ones yeah first player to score a touchdown yeah uh like i said i'll never forget i won on the field one year with the ravens brandon stokely caught a touchdown 20 to 1 i won every bet i made for that raven superbowl was like one of the great

three hours of my life and brandon stokely the field it's so good but then they they lowered the field they lowered the safety those were the two they were like that But then they lowered the field. They lowered the safety. Those were the two. They were like, that's out of whack. The field is stupid. They started to include every single player. So the field was the equipment manager. 16 years ago, the field was like nine or ten guys and then everybody. So you get the defense. You get the third receivers on each team, every tight end.

So I think you pick your spot here. You say, hey, is it going to be a running touchdown? If so, I go Blount and I go Devonta Freeman. 8-1, 7.5-1. Brady is 20-1 to sneak it in. I kind of like the Brady. You do. The 20-1 is great.

I won the last time a quarterback had the first touchdown. It would be great. If you're subscribing to this whole day, is an FU from start to finish performance for Brady, bet on the 20-1. Really? What receiver would you pick, Mike, if you had to pick anything? Edelman.

What's Edelman? Edelman, I think, was 7-1. Did you see Edelman and Mike up on the... No. Inside the NFL? He was great. He did a great job, but at one point he goes to Chris Hogan and he's like, feels good, right? Chris Hogan's like, yeah, yeah. And he's like, just wait till the next one. It it was like adam just loves football oh he loves it and loves winning

and just doesn't shut up and he's such a he's such a great competitor and wants to get better every day he does oh my god what's wrong with him i know i know i know also took less money a great example of like another guy could assign with jacksonville and been stuck like getting you know almost paralyzed by Blake Bortles over the middle and instead stayed with the Pats. Yeah, I mean, that's like the piece Kevin did

in the ringer where Brady's salary really helps the Patriots not so much that he takes less money, it's because his number is the standard for which every guy has to kind of fall in line. Right.

So Darrell Rivas, even that one year, he's making 12. but brady was still a little bit higher than at that point but then when brady had to take less revis has to go because you can't have brady's gotta be top dog how does this work out kevin clark said that the pats have what was it like eight or nine guys between five million and eight which is against like that everybody wants high price guys or no money guys and the patriots take the other that's why the middle class that's why their depth is better.

Yeah. I hate that. I hate everything you're saying. I know you do. Let me ask you this. What would have to happen for the Patriots to win and Brady not to win MVP? Oh, I mean, Blount could absolutely win it. Edelman could win it.

Deion Branch won. I mean, if Deion Lewis does a three-peat again where he does a kickoff touchdown, a catch-a-pass, I mean, I could see that. What's Deion Lewis? So they're trying to get – I'm going to pull it up now because this is the one that keeps changing. So obviously Goodell, I don't know if he has any influence, but he doesn't want to hand that.

No. That's an extra F you, right? So why? I don't know. Like if the AFC championship game was the Super Bowl, does Hogan get the MVP? I still think Brady gets it. I think it's hard to give him. That's the best game Brady's ever played from the playoffs. This game's coming down to whether Ryan plays better or Brady plays better.

So you think it's one of those two? One of the two. For sure. Could you parlay it with Brady breaking the trophy over Goodell's head? I like that. That's 101. But I could see Julio Jones getting it before Matt Ryan, but I can't see any receiver getting it before Brady.

I just can't. Wait, let's get to these. Deion Lewis, I think, is a good wild card. Kick return possibilities. One big wheel route, 50-yard, and then if he got to 70 yards, running. Brady minus 120. So to win the game, they're minus 150. They're not giving a lot of margin to anybody else.

I feel like we've had this conversation for 10 straight years in this podcast, whether you should just bet the QB if you're betting on a team. But over and over again, the QB hasn't won. It's like, what is it, like 55%, 60% of the time? Forgot to look. Yeah, it's not as much as you would think. Who won? Von Miller won, right?

Well, that was an ugly game. You never thought. But going into that game, either Cam was going to get it or somebody on the Denver defense was going to get it. Edelman 15-1. Not bad. That's a good one. The problem with any receiver on the Patriots,

the ball has to get delivered to them, and it's going to be the guy who delivers the ball, not the guy who catches it. Well, that's what I'm saying. Like, Hogan had two touchdowns 180 yards or something last two weeks ago. And Brady would have won the MVP. Brady would have won MVP. You can't give it up.

So what was Deion Lewis? Deion Lewis was 20-1. See, I think that's the best. If you either go Brady or you go long shot, then you just hope there's a 1-20 chance Deion Lewis has. But I agree with you on Atlanta. I mean, I could see if Julio Jones has a monster game, then give it to him.

Or if Vic Beasley sacks Brady seven times. You know, Deion Lewis is on the Patriots because of one of the four people in this room. And it's not Tate. Tate? It's not Tate. It wasn't me. It wasn't me either? No.

Mike. No. You're going to have to admit it. Do you remember when I drafted him for a dollar in the fantasy? I might have gotten some inside info. Oh, really? Just that he was good at football.'s really a good player yeah it's you know what people don't realize he's the leading rusher at pit as a freshman except all records in the pit i mean the guy's a little back but he's powerful i think he's great he's a good guy too right everybody loves him great i think he

factors into this game immensely now i like you're under slightly under 46 to 50 is 6 to 1 odds. 51 to 55 is 6 to 1 odds. I think that's a nice 10-point spread in there. 46 to 55. I think it puts it under. It's right in there. That's just me. Highest scoring quarter was the second quarter, 9 to 5 odds. Oh, that's good.

I thought that was a pretty good one. I think the second quarter. What's the first quarter score? It's higher. Everything else is. That was the only one that was under 2-1. Yeah, I didn't see that. The other one we didn't talk about was Brady over two touchdowns, minus 250.

Over two and a half, minus 120. Over three touchdowns. So we'd have to throw four or more. Plus 265. But if that four touchdowns. I definitely think he'll throw three touchdowns. So three would be over 2.5 touchdowns minus 120

I thought that was pretty tasty three is minus 120 so I was looking four exactly is four to one odds five is eight to one if he really is really in FU mode well 20 to one was six touchdowns right six or more is 20 to one that's too low

how many people have thrown six Super Bowl touchdowns? Did Montana even do that? I don't know. We'll have to look at that. That's crazy. One game? Yeah, no. I don't think so.

Doug Williams? Maybe through six? Did they score that many points? I don't know. Get out of here. That would have to be 42 points. Total touchdowns by both teams was six and a half. I thought that was a good one, too.

You like the under. Six and a half touchdowns means Vegas is saying there's going to be 45 points from touchdowns over under in this game. That's an interesting bet because I think if you were in that gray zone in this game, first of all, if you send your punter on the field, either team, you're nervous. Right. Because you didn't hold serve and the other team could score. Right. So that's got to make you nervous. Right. Because you didn't hold serve and the other team could score. Right.

So that's got to make you nervous. That's A. B, if you're in that fourth and one area and you're in that 40-yard field goal range. Going. You know, the three might look like good, but also you have to be careful because you're going to give the other team a really good field position if you miss it.

And that's a turnover. And then like what happened to Green Bay. They come in there, they miss the first field goal, they get a turnover and then like what happened to green bay they come in there they missed the first field goal they get a turnover next thing you know so i think you got to be like i could see the patriots being more in four down territory in certain areas and i would think if i'm atlanta and i'm dan quinn i'm saying look we're going to be in a lot of four down areas right and you don't as much as you respect atlanta's office you don't love their red zone offense right you like i think it becomes a a little closer down because they can't make the explosive play down there.

Right. So it's got to be a lot of misdirections. And that's like the Patriots, really good red zone defense. They'll give you between the 20s. They're really good on third down red zone. And the Falcons' red zone defense is not good, right? They're horrendous. Or 28th or something.

Yeah. Mike, what happens if this Patriots team played the king of inside the 20s kyle orton in his prime oh 530 yards passing and zero points exactly or andy dalton just watch the andy dalton game it's the new king of the 20s the only other thing before my big uh gary russell pick is the i like the roulette thing where you pick exactly how many points your team scores. I like that. I saw that. I liked it. 28 is 12 to 1.

34, 12 to 1. 38, 21. What's 37? 37 is 25 to 1. Let's do a bunch of these. 37 is – I like 34. 34?

Yeah, it gives you something to look forward to. 37 is five Pats touchdowns, a field goal, and a missed Stevie G extra point. That could happen. All right, now. All right, so here's the story behind. This is the moment of the podcast. One of the first great moments in the history of the old BS report at ESPN. Sal comes in.

We do a Super Bowl prop. Gary Russell. It's Gary Russell's Pittsburgh team against Arizona. So it's February 2009. So I've had the podcast, I think, a year and a half at this so it's the february 2009 so i've had the podcast i think a year and a half at this point do the things and sal's like here's my big prop ad he sells it the whole way it's gary russell will not score a touchdown will not score a touchdown running back gary russell i was wondering who this gary this is the springsteen halftime super bowl in tampa correct yeah it's a

it's a santonio homes yeah it's a springste Bowl. Most people know it as the San Antonio Homes. I want to make sure it's right. It's the Springsteen halftime show in Tampa. Gary Russell, we're all at Jimmy's old house and there's a hundred people there.

How fast did Gary Russell run for a touchdown? He scored the first touchdown. He scored a touchdown. He scored the very first touchdown of the game and was given the ball twice. I think it was a third down carry. It was his third attempt at a touchdown from inside the five. So at this point, I have no idea how many people are listening to my podcast. Like ESPN's not telling me.

And I'd had maybe a couple people mention it and that's it. And somebody at the party, as soon as they score, remember the two people were like, oh, my God, Gary Russell, Cousin Sound. We're like, whoa, somebody heard our podcast. We were so excited. We later get a note that a couple at a different party started laughing and said something similar. Gary Russell, who's laughing at Gary Russell's story?

These two, a man and a woman, start talking about it. Both fans of the BS Report, they end up getting married. Wow. A marriage from the Gary Russell story. These two, a man and a woman, start talking about it. Both fans of the BS report. They end up getting married. Yeah. Wow. A marriage from the Gary Russell. It did. Amazing.

So it's the best one we've ever had. Hank Kronoski was his name? Well, just in addition, he ended up running off on the girl and she found him and shot him in the head.

But that's not... It gets dark. The point is they were a fan of the show. I was worried about that because I was looking at my phone wondering who Gary Russell was. I thought I missed some culture reference. Who was the Giants' big beat?

Henry Janowski. I don't lose all of these. Henry Janowski was a winner. I think I had him over like eight and a half yards. But that was your first. I think that was the first time you won with Ryan. That was the 11th Super Bowl. Yeah, right.

In Indianapolis. Who sang there? Was that Up With People? I'm trying to remember who the halftime show was there. I judge them all by the halftime show. It was Tony Bennett,

I think, did that one. Yeah, I'm watching. Last year, I had Fozzie Whitaker over 11 and a half yards. You've quietly nailed like four of the last six, something like that.

Yeah, you've been pretty good. All right, here we go. Here it is. You know, one thing on this, we've been doing the Don Julio Shot of the Week for the entire NFL season.

I've never been more excited for this one. Don Julio, the world's original handcrafted tequila with multiple unique tequilas, including Don Julio 1942. A nice one to pop right after the Super Bowl if you're a Falcons fan or a Patriots fan. It's the best luxury tequila you will ever drink. And now, the Gary Russell Prop Bet of the Year. My Gary Russell Prop Bet of the Year. Wow. Play a drum or something.

Come on, figure this out. The pride and joy of Waxahachie, Texas, birthplace of Captain Redneck, Dick Murdoch. Aldrick Robinson, over six and a half yards on his first reception. Wow. That takes a lot of guts to go down that road. First catch will be 9 yards, hauling in somewhere around the second quarter.

He has two touchdowns this year, 323 yards. Ask me how many receptions he has in the postseason, Mike. Ask how many receptions does he have in the postseason. No, zero. He has zero. Wait a minute. Robinson? Robinson, I saw him catch one on the – I thought he caught one last week.

I thought he caught one over by the boundary over off of – Off of the 405? No. No. Against the Curlies defense or the Packers. I swear I looked this up. I thought he had none in the postseason. But even better, Aldrick Robinson.

Tate's going to look it up. Aldrick Robinson. Take it. In fact, when you were going over the coverages for the receivers, i was like oh boy he's gonna blow it you didn't even mention aldrich well because he wouldn't be typically they're not a four receiver team unless julio got hurt or something i gotta be honest i didn't totally know he had a first name really i just thought his name was robinson like madonna i had no idea what it was smu walks out it's got it thank you who are we thinking of?

Not Gabriel, not Sanu. Who's that other guy they have? I thought there was somebody else made a catch in that game. That's great. Yeah. There you go. Aldrick Robinson. Aldrick Robinson.

I love it. So like nine yards, second quarter. That's it. One catch. That's going to put them over. Let me tell you something, Mike. You're betting these props with us. Bill and I, we invest a lot of money.

I happen to know what your signing bonus was at the Ringer. Bill said not to say, but $37,000 signing bonus. You could spend a little on these prop bets. I think as a welcome to the Ringer family, we should chip in and get Mike a prop bet. Okay, we'll get you a prop bet. So he understands what it's like.

We'll always remember the Lady Gaga Super Bowl when he made his first prop bet. You call it the Santonio Holmes... It's the Spring Lady Gaga Super Bowl when he made his first prop bet. You call it the Santonio Holmes. It's the Springsteen Super Bowl. The Springsteen Super Bowl. It's like the best Springsteen fan thing I think I've ever heard a Springsteen fan say. It's pretty great.

It'd be like if I called Super Bowl 36 the U2 Super Bowl. You're like, what? U2? Yeah, when the Pats beat the Rams, but U2. You know, the strangest one was I was in Detroit. Of all places, the Rolling Stones were the halftime. The Detroit-Seattle one. Yeah.

Seattle-Pittsburgh. Seattle-Pittsburgh. Seattle-Pittsburgh, right. Like, why would you put the Rolling Stones, an English band, in a town? You know, it made no sense. Where did Townsend do his one? That was, because it was a prop, Will He Break the Guitar. Was it Daltrey or Townsend?

I don't know. I can't remember that. Let me just say uh custom style sure thing i will have a super bowl win i'll have my three best props i'm up 4200 on the year and that's going up up and up and uh you do well last thursday you do well the last two rounds jimmy kimmel live uh nobody's threatening your life anymore no it's good that's good bonus jamie dornan from Fifty Shades of Grey, Tuesday night. Rob Lowe later in the week. And yeah, watch. What about, we should have had our cousin, Jimmy, should have had an Oscars prop with

a number of Trump tweets during the Oscars and Tom Brady touchdowns during the Super Bowl. That's pretty good. Would Trump two and a half tweets during the Osc, what would the odds be on how many Trump jokes in the first five minutes of the Oscar? Oh, for Jimmy? A couple. Yeah, it's going to be it's going to be tough, right?

Well, I mean, we don't know what what the world's going to look like three weeks from now. Such a long time from now. Jimmy might have might have drawn the short straw of Oscars hosting duties or maybe he's the right guy at the right time. Could be great. It's definitely a swing or miss Oscars gig though.

It could be great. It'll only be remembered by the halftime show. So, the Oscars. This has been a lot of fun. This has been great. Hold on, before we go. He only checked his phone

seven times. I was trying to look up whether Gary Russell was a pop culture reference that I didn't know. He's played sax with Springsteen. Thanks to Books. Remember, Valentine's Day is right around the corner. You're running out of time for a good gift.

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B-O-U-Q-S.com. Offer code Bill. Thanks to the blacktux.com. They'll help you create your look or choose from tons of stylists selected outfits starting at just $95. They've even outfitted one Tate Frazier, the future CEO of the Ringer. After ordering, your suit will arrive 14 days before your event. Try it on. Make sure everything fits.

If it's less than perfect, the Black Tux will send you a free replacement right away. To get started now, visit theblacktux. slash bs and experience a new way to rent again the black tux.com slash bs thanks to seat geek our presenting sponsor don't forget to use seat geek for the super bowl if you need tickets they are happy to help you and they have an awesome grading chart thanks to blue apron thanks to the ringer nfl show where we will find Lombardi middle of the week with Maze. Yes. You're going to nerd it up. A little football nerd action. Absolutely.

That's happening Wednesday. And then the Cuz will be here next week. Yes. Monday. I'll either be very happy or very sad. I get very sad. I do. Like four different points of the year I get sad. When my fantasy team is eliminated.

Yeah. When my Cowboys are eliminated. When we get down to the final four and you can't make. When Jason Garrett wins coach of the year. That I don't have to worry about. And then at the end of the year. I was sad yesterday. It was the first football Sunday without football.

If you don't watch the Pro Bowl. I can't watch the Pro Bowl. It's a lie. Thank you. Mike Lombardi. Welcome aboard to the ringer. I'm betting this prop for you. I'm putting $50 for Lombardi. I'm also chipping in $50. Good job by you, sir.

Good job by you. We'll see you next time.