The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 45: NFL Wild Card Picks w/ Cousin Sal

Episode Date: January 4, 2016

HBO's Bill Simmons wraps up a wacky Week 17 & makes picks for the NFL Wildcard weekend with Cousin Sal. Topics include: AFC playoff picture, Tom Brady injury (6:00 mark), Making of a (Manning) Murderer (10:00), Jets' collapse (15:00), Super Bowl odds (21:00), Cousins vs. Rodgers (25:00), "red hot" Seahawks (32:00), 'H8teful Eight' NFL QBs (36:00), NFL in LA (39:00), coaching vacancies (42:00), Wild Card line guesses (47:00), Pats/Belichick conspiracies (58:00) and Aaron Rodgers' relaxation level (1:00:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode is brought to you by SeatGeek, our presenting sponsor and favorite app for buying and selling tickets for sports and music. I just used SeatGeek to buy Billy Joel tickets for the January 7th show at MSG. MSG, Sal. I love it. He plays there every month. Couldn't have gone better. Couldn't have been easier.

Go to SeatGeek.com slash BS to learn how to buy and sell on SeatGeek. Don't forget to download the free SeatGeek app. Enter promo code BS. You get $20 back once you've made your first purchase. Today's episode is also brought to you by NatureBox. Our friends who make delicious snacking seem smart and easy. You know who's been using NatureBox for a year or so, Sal? Who, you?

My wife. Really? Very excited that NatureBox is a sponsor of the BS Podcast. Good shape. They have over 100 snacks to choose from. Go from go healthy go indulgent they don't care they want you to snack away with their smart box guarantee if you get a snack you don't like they're all place it in your next box for free nature box comm slash BS go there and get 50% off your first box make my wife happy.

Welcome to the round one. Megapod. Here we are. I love this. This is probably my favorite pod of the year. There's so much going on. There's a lot. We got the round one lines. We have Super Bowl odds.

Yeah, yeah. All that stuff. That's Cousin Sal, fresh off his 13-4 best bet record in SportsCenter. That's good. He hit with the Chargers. That was scary, right?

Everyone laughed at me. They had the chance to win that game. I wasn't laughing. I actually think if... Like, a couple guys got hurt for them in that game, including at least one offensive lineman. They might've even lost a second one, but it just seemed like they, like he had no time.

The interception was preordained. It was going to happen. They kept batting around, but I was going crazy because the Patriots for the second straight week decided to treat a regular season game like a preseason game, costing us some valuable dollars in the process. Lots of money. It's not like we had them in teases and parlays. They just didn't care.

Peter King wrote that they went into a four-corners offense, or somebody did. I thought that was a good way to put it. It's not like they were tanking the game, but they weren't trying to win the game. Brady was four for five in the first half uh they ran the ball 21 times there was a little urgency in the third quarter for about a minute and then yeah uh but what's weird to me is if you're not trying to win how does tom brady

still get hurt absolutely like you can't you have to dis well first of all i think they were trying to win but but they did look like they were half-assing it. And there was no offensive line there. I don't have to tell you. No. I was terrified. Because Sue's out there. Sue's like having the Hanson brothers out there trying to go after your quarterback.

Yeah, you know he's going to want to step on you or something. Yeah, something's going to happen. Even the legal hits are devastating. So, yeah, keep Brady out of there if you don't want to win. But there's, I watched the game with our friend Kevin Hedgech big Patriots fan oh god there's nothing I can only imagine nothing better than watching a Patriots loss I'm with him unless it's actually better if you don't have tens of dozens of dollars on the Patriots like you said but Hench is like I can't remember what he's like oh Marcus Cannon Marcus Cannon this offensive line he's non-existent if we had

no one out there it would take longer time for the defensive tackle to get to Brady. No one. He's actually shoving people into Brady. That is true. Sue hurt Brady because the lineman shoved Sue. I think it was Cannon. He shoved him. Head start.

Yeah. They weren't tanking the game. No. But if you're not going to try to win it, just play Garoppolo. If you're going to have Brady throw five times in the first half, just play Garoppolo. Sure. I don't care. I'm happy with the two seed.

I think I said this to you two podcasts ago. Or maybe I said it to Joe House. I said it to somebody. I think they wanted the two seed. Really? I think they played the last two weeks. It's like, ah, we'll take the one seed if you give it to us. But we're pretty happy with the two seed.

I hate this talk. I really hate it. But you look at this, though. It's so stupid. How great did it work out for them? Why? They'll have to play Denver at Denver and Pittsburgh again. Is that your thing?

Are you afraid of Denver? But it's the same thing. You're saying they try to avoid Pittsburgh. That's what you're saying. I'm saying in round two, they play Cincinnati. If Cincinnati loses, they would play either Houston or Kansas City. They'd play one of those three teams at home in round two. I think they're much happier with that than Pittsburgh or the Jets.

All right, but they'll still have to. And then you'll say they go to Denver, you're saying. And you like that better than playing Pittsburgh. But maybe Denver loses in round two. Do you feel good about Denver winning round two? But it would be Pittsburgh. You're avoiding Pittsburgh against the play playing Pittsburgh. But maybe Denver loses in round two. Do you feel good about Denver winning round two? But it would be Pittsburgh. You're avoiding Pittsburgh or Kansas City. Yeah, I don't know. Denver's playing

Pittsburgh or Kansas City in round two. So you're either going to Denver or you're playing Pittsburgh, which you try to avoid anyway. At home at least. That's what it was going to be. My thing is, I don't know what they're trying to do because ultimately if we can't block, it doesn't matter who they play, they're going to lose anyway. I just't know what they're trying to do because ultimately, if we can't block, it doesn't matter who they play, they're going to lose anyway.

Yeah. I just didn't think they had any... It's not like they were like, we need the one seed. No. All right. And we'll see. But let me ask you this. We'll go over Super Bowl odds, but...

Yeah, I have those. You would be surprised right now if they didn't make the Super Bowl? Who? You. Patriots. Who? Oh, I wouldn't be surprised. I think the AFC is wide open. You do? Okay. I don't be surprised. I think the AFC is wide open.

You do? Okay. I don't ever remember a more wide open AFC. But like a month ago. Where I didn't have an opinion. A month ago, like they were plus 220 or something. I know. We would have loved it.

Like, no one's beating them. Yeah, but we're two and four in the last six. I know. Here's the thing, though. I'd still bet on us. Yeah. They didn't even use Grok the last two weeks. They threw him over the middle once in two weeks.

They had the fourth and nine play. That was it. Amendola's coming back. Edelman's coming back. You need Solder and Vollmer and every weird name. Well, Vollmer comes back. Solder's out. He's definitely out.

But did you see Steven Jackson in the first half? Yeah. He actually was, he looked like a better LeGarrette bunt. He had some pep, yeah. White's not bad as a third down back. They really missed Lewis, but, you know, I think they'll be healthy in time for round two.

You jinxed it. You made fun of my boy Romo absorbing hits, and then Brady, the next, very next, he couldn't get out of his own way. The Brady hit, it was almost like watching Willem Dafoe get shot in platoon. Like, it wasn't just sue going into him brady's body lurches his hands are lurching up i i just i was expecting thighs but my heart stopped i immediately facetimed my dad because my dad is now 68 i always want to make sure he didn't just you know have the big one you facetime your dad when william defoe was shot too

we didn't have fac fake, one's real. I understand. Well, we have a lot to get to today. Yeah. So we're going to save the lines for later. Should we do some ball odds? What's your agenda? I have a couple week 17 things I want to hit first.

Yeah, let's talk about it. Kubiak benching Manning. Said he needed a spark. Did you watch this game? Sure, yeah. So halftime comes in. Tracy Wolfson. Hey, Tracy, what did Gary Kubiak say?

She's like, she basically said Kubiak said Brock Osweiler sucked and he wasn't happy and blah, blah, blah. The announcers just let it go. This is the story of week 17. It's like, whoa. As soon as she did that report, I'm thinking, he's going to bring Manny back. It's going to happen. First drive, the running back fumbles. Yeah.

And now he brings Manny back. Like, this is somehow Brock Osweiler's fault. Right, exactly. He had two interceptions and, like, 220 yards and 14 for 22, something like. You know, Peyton would have to do a lot worse to get benched. They had five turnovers. I think one of them might have been his fault. He threw the pass too hard. They got an interception.ception one he's throwing the ball and it gets hit so he must

have been screwing up audibles so manny comes in and nance is like meg ryan in the win harry met sally deli scene like he's just like it's like a two minute long nance gasm and they're just they want it so bad they want manny to do well and. And he was three for five at one point for 36 yards, but they had scored because they just kept handing it off. And Sims is complimenting his audibles. Yeah. Great. Like nobody else in the league can audible except Peyton Manning.

They're not mentioning the HGH scandal at all. Oh, yeah. And then Nance says afterwards, I have it here. Francesa asked him on Sunday morning, would you discuss the Al Jazeera thing during the game? Nance said, no, why would we? If we talk about it, we would only continue to breathe life into a story that on all levels is a non-story.

Why add another layer to it? Interesting. So now you're going to compare this to the Deflate Gate. No, I don't think it's a non-story, though. No, you're right. It's something but i had to watch the super bowl with my team's trying to to drive for the game-winning touchdown and collinsworth is doing his i asked tom bray i said look into my eyes tom and i and i believe that i'm like so so why did we go so far with that story and then this story everybody's, don't talk about this one.

It's Peyton Manning. CBS and Journalism Integrity is a notch above NBC's, I guess. Jaworski's tweeting. Did you see the Jaworski tweet? What did he say? Manning comes in and Jaworski goes, here he comes, the sheriff. Peyton, get that tweet. I do feel.

Jaworski's cheerleading for Manning. These ESPN guys, they go after Brady for nine months and then they're just cheerleading Manning. Like left and right. Everybody. It's exciting for the game. It's good for the game when he's back. It's great. He says, the sheriff is back.

Go Peyton. See? The sheriff is back. Go Peyton. An actual quote from Rod Jaworski. Unbiased NFL guy. Is it possible? And maybe it's because I'm all into conspiracies now

with this making of a murder. Thank you for getting me to watch. I go to bed furious every night now. I know. I knock off too. Not good for the people of Wisconsin. I just hate how stupid everyone is and how villainous everybody is, but it gets me crazy.

But what is that? Is that your dad? You can talk about William Dafoe? I don't know i gotta turn my phone off i'm sorry that was a phone everyone yeah uh is it possible bray uh manning said after week 10 is like i just need a break i need a month off i'll throw two picks i'll put my foot my foot thing on yeah no one's gonna look into that i'll i'll i just need a break and give me a month off if we get the two seed they play now the Patriots now

they're like if we get the two seed so be it the Pats are running away with this I just need a month off and you know eventually

Brock Osweiler will trip all over himself and then you put me back in and it was about the best moment you could possibly do it and then he said I'm gonna murder

somebody in my bedroom there's gonna be blood everywhere but yet I'm gonna be able to magically clean up be blood everywhere but yet i'm going to be able to magically clean up all the blood but yet not use the car crusher right in my backyard that crushes cars to the point they're unidentifiable we're just going to put the rav right outside the tree the only thing that identifies me with the vehicle the key i'm going to leave that in my room

yeah you define that the eighth time you went in there This is making a murder And the murder And the murder victim Is the only person in America Who just carries a car key No house keys Right There's nothing on it Nobody else

There's just one person in America Who just happens Just have her car keys I hate this show I hate it It was Ten episodes Well I'm five in

So don't kill it Although my wife read All the Wikipedia And everything afterwards It should have been six episodes They strung it out An extra four. I heard five and six are the best, the trial.

It's a 10-hour show that should have been six, but it was solid. So anyway, Manning did some handoffs, did some audibles at the line against the Chargers. Horrendous defense, right? The Chargers had nobody left in that defense. He threw, I think, three deep passes, all of them overthrown to wide open guys. I don't think he was lights out. Am I supposed to recalibrate my thoughts on Denver as a playoff team?

No, but he had that 14-yard out down pretty good. That looked good. Had a little pop on it. And it's a throw I don't think Osweiler was making. To hit wide open 14-yard out, down pretty good. That looked good. Had a little pop on it, and it's a throw I don't think Osweiler was making. To hit wide open 14-yard passes. Kellen Moore can do that. If you had a bet down 7-6, was that when he came in, when they were down 7-6?

No, not 7-6. What were they down? They had 7, right? It was 7-6. Well, that's why you had to tell you knew the Chargers were going to lose. It was 7-6, and they had had five turnovers, and they weren't even winning.

It's like, they're not going to win. Are they going to need 11 turnovers? I still thought they might win with Osweiler in there, the Chargers. What a great Phil Rivers season. He had one of the best 4-12 seasons I've ever seen. No receivers, no running backs. He ended up second.

Was Breeze first in passing yards? What's their record combined, those two teams? I know. A lot of cheap yardage at the end. So this Broncos team, I always keep track of legit wins, legit losses, and then either-or games. I would say yesterday was an either-or game, right? Sure.

That wasn't a legit win. I feel like the Chargers could have won that one. So the Broncos with four legit wins, three legit losses, and nine either-or games, and somehow they're the one seed. I don't think that's a good omen for them. No. If you go to Super Bowl odds, the one seed should not be, what are they, 6-1? Nance and Sims, that was one of the most hilarious broadcasts I've ever listened to.

That was the funniest hour of the year. I mean, we don't know what comedies are coming, but it was just great. They were just so desperate to praise anything Manny did. They were so happy. And Manny wanted, or Nance wanted to call the Manny touchdown so bad. And it just kept these long runs and they couldn't figure out how to massage it toward. But at one point Manny had the happy feet for like eight seconds and then almost got strip sacked from behind because he held the ball too long.

They showed the replay and Nance goes, that's a great sack by Peyton Manning to take that sack right there, or whatever he said. I was like, what are you? My God. I was dying for the pick six for the Chargers win. Yeah. I wouldn't have traded a Pat Super Bowl for it, but it's close.

But this really works great for it, but it's close. But this really works great for you, doesn't it? Why? Because. Another Brady Manning game? Yeah, yeah. And it's in Denver. No one can talk about deflated balls.

It's on the road. Peyton puts together two big games, let's say, to get to the AFC championship. Or one? What is it? No, he'd have to win. Don't forget how bad he was. He had 17 interceptions the first 10 weeks. If I'm Casey or Pittsburgh,

who's the other team they might play? You want to root for a good Peyton Manning, though, don't you? Me as a football fan? Yeah, yeah, as a Patriots fan. I'm not afraid of any of these teams. If my team's healthy, we have the best team. I just don't know if my team's healthy. If they're not healthy, I think they could lose to all of them. Yeah.

What team couldn't be? I guess Houston is the only one that probably couldn't beat them. So the other big thing that happened yesterday was the Jets. Yeah. Which I personally take responsibility for because last Monday on this podcast, I talked to you about how this had all the makings of Fitzpatrick turning into Fitzpatrick at midnight, turning into a Fitzpatrick

pumpkin. I think we declared him good. Didn't we declare him good? Yeah, we said he's good. He's been doing this and then he really turned into Ryan Fitzpatrick. Three straight interceptions. Fourth quarter, yeah. Including like, it seemed I was thinking they were going to cover.

Because we had them at, like, Jets 2.5. We had a long conversation Sunday morning about 2.5 versus 3. Buy off the minus 3 or just take the 3. They're so much better, they're going to beat them. But who's Rex Ryan? This is stupid. If people like the Bills, it's only because of Rex Ryan. And he hasn't done anything.

And, yeah, then we had everything on the Jets weird Jets game I thought the one of the worst plays of the season was when they brought in EJ Manuel for that fourth and three and he hard counted and the guy jumps off sides right it's like really yeah obviously they brought him in just to do hard counts where are they gonna run a fourth and three the EJ Manuel hadn't even played and then muhammad wilkerson broke his leg and that's when i started to get worried and yet the jets are going downfield it seems like they're gonna score i'm thinking like well if they're down two right now if they score they're up five maybe they go for the two point they'll be up six yeah and we're and and then all of a sudden interception so bad it's just been that kind of year we should have known like the steel serve it up on a platter to the Jets,

and they blow it. It's just that year. We should have known. And then, meanwhile, the Pats are running the four-corners offense in Miami and have a chance to just steal the game 13-10, and then they give up the distant bastard third cousin of the Tyree catch. Guy heaves it downfield. It bounces off Logan Ryan. It's in the air, and the guy catches catch. Guy heaves it downfield. It bounces off Logan Ryan.

It's in the air, and the guy catches it. That was terrible. Was that third down? It was terrible. Yeah, I think it was like third and 12 or something. Yeah, that was bad. We devote our lives to this league and to gambling on this league. You look up in the second quarter, the pats are losing they need to

win the bangles are losing they need to win they're losing to the ravens steelers are struggling with cleveland like all these teams like the jets obviously losing like f off with these teams honestly i'm serious like these teams like the ravens only get up for the rivalry games like this is it this is where you're going to screw us? I know. The announcers were cutting into the games going, let's go to Cleveland. Guys, Travis Coons did it again. Yeah, right.

Fourth field goal of the day. It's 17-12. It's like, what are you doing, Pittsburgh? Well, that's what CBS has to look forward to. That's why they're so crazy about Manning. One more thing about Manning. The biggest thing he did was the Omaha's. Great.

I thought he stepped up the Omaha's. It's like the old Ric Flair coming in and poking you in the eyes. Not much to do there. And then San Diego's putting eight guys on the line and Manning audibles out of it. And Simms is like, oh, great audible. Nobody else would have thought to audible with eight guys on the line and three receivers spread out. You'll never forgive them. Nansen Sims, the best. I love it, though.

So, yeah, the Jets, that was out of the Jetsiest losses that they've had, Jetsiest moments in the history of the Jets. I don't know if it was a 10 out of 10. It was like an 8.5 or a 9. I think the real Jets fans had their guard up you know i don't think jets fans were going to that game going we're gonna beat buffalo and that i think they were like i i hope we beat buffalo i feel good about beating buffalo but nobody had bought in no except us we bought in at two and a half we bought in at three we bought in literally we bought in far late was that was that, for Bunny Colvin, was that week 17 loss worse than when Hamsterdam fell apart? Did you watch the wire?

What are you talking about? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, all right. Jets coach Bunny Colvin. Right, I forgot about that. Yeah. I think Hamsterdam was worse. That was really the fall of an entire part of Baltimore.

This was just a football loss. Yeah. It wasn't as bad. What else do we have well let's do what's uh what's ranked the playoff teams but first i want to do uh oh you like this one so i'm going to talk about our friends at squarespace so many friends's do it. They build fantastic websites for normal people. You're a normal person. I don't know many normal people.

Well, you're a relatively normal person. You went 13 and 4 on your best bets on SportsCenter this season. You know what would have been great? If you had a website. Really? That had the pics and the video you did and all that stuff. And Squarespace, they could do it so easily for you. It's so hard to find your great pics online.

I'm an idiot. You should have built a website for your pics and your videos. You should have used Squarespace. I'm writing this down. They make it easy to build beautiful websites regardless of skill level. And you have no skill level, I feel, for building a website. No coding needed. Easy to use tools.

State-of-the-art technology. You get 24-7 online support. Easy to use tools. State of the art technology. You get 24-7 online support. You need that. You get a beautiful website for only $8 a month. $8, 8 times 12. That's less than $100. Hold on. You can get a free domain if you buy Squarespace for the year.

You know who uses Squarespace? Michael Rapaport. Does he? Yeah, he has a website on there. Wow. He's not normal though. You said normal people. Good point. Everybody. He's relatively normal.

So start your trial. No credit card needed. Go to squarespace.com. Use the offer code BS. You like doing that? You get 10% off your first purchase. Yeah, I think for next year, your best bets were too good. They were too hard to find. So I would say just use Squarespace.

All right. Yeah. Nice and easy for you. Okay. All right. So now should we go Super Bowl odds or something? Yeah, let's do Super Bowl odds. I think they threw their hands in the air.

You know, we talk about the Vegas zone being four and a half, six point spread as the Vegas zone. You think for the odds? I think for the odds, they did the same thing because they have three teams right around nine to two. Is that what you have? I think for the odds, they did the same thing because they have three teams right around nine to two. Is that what you have? I don't know what you... Yeah.

So... Arizona, New England, Carolina. I don't ever remember not having a team that wasn't three to one or lower. Right. Usually there's always a team that's either favored,

like minus 180, minus 200, something like that, or somebody like a plus 150, plus 200. It's the Patriots. Let's not mince words. It's usually at this point the Patriots are plus 150 right now. So I ranked the playoff teams, and I want your thought. I'm going to go backwards from 12 to 1, okay?

And I'll give the Super Bowl odds too, and you tell me what you think. Coming in at number 12, the Houston Texans. They are 75 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. What do you think of that? I think that's fair I think our buddy Daniel has them at he thought it was

I think he has 70 to 1 odds he did it and they got the 4 seed and didn't even get better odds he did it like a month ago didn't even go down? no didn't go down

so wait so that they have a home game and then they'd go to Denver if they won no that's not necessary they'd go to Denver if they won. No, that's not necessary. They'd go to Denver unless the three seed lost. Right, or then they'd go to the Patriots.

Yeah, that's a long—I'm just trying to think if you took them individually each game, four to one, five to one, it might— Not inconceivable that they could win in Denver for me. No? Low-scoring game? Rush Manning. The thing that's a little bit scary about them, I mean, the Patriots certainly demolished them, but they have a guy, a receiver who can just make all kinds of plays. Like he could put up 10 catches, 220 yards, two TDs on you.

And then they have Watt and some of those other guys in the pass rush. If it's the wrong kind of game and they get the lead and they're coming after you. Well, let me ask you. I'm afraid of what? I don't want to screw up your rankings, but let's do it this way. Which quarterback down 13-3 or which team 13-3 down do you trust the least? Oh, whoever is Houston's guy.

It's Houston, right? Yeah, no question. That's why they're 12. So that's kind of how I've been ranking them. So my number 11, controversial, 35-1 odds, Green Bay. They are the all-time are-we-sure-they're-good team. I am not sure they're good. No. Were they 4-6 in their last 10 or 2-4 in their last 6?

It was going to be 3- 4-6 in their last 10. It was going to be three and it was going to be six in their last 10. It's going to be three and seven if not for the Hail Mary. Right. Yeah. Their guys are never open. Never. I'm not sure their defense is good.

They threw us off the scent when they when they beat the hell out of Minnesota that game or like, oh, OK, Green Bay is there. Here they come. No, not really. I just it's not even week to week with them anymore. It's it's carry to carry like Eddie Lacy puts his head down, not really. It's not even week to week with them anymore. It's carry to carry. Like Eddie Lacy puts his head down and gets seven, and then the next one he's, oh, he's stacked up for minus 14.

I don't know what I'm watching anymore. He's eating as he's getting tired. I have Washington ahead of them at 10. They're 38 to 1. I'm going to do a little game for you, Sal. So you're taking Washington over Green Bay this week. I haven't decided yet. I just think that if your life depends on it.

I got you. It does. QB1. 4,166 yards, 29 TDs, 7.67 yards per pass, 101.6 QB rating. I'm not saying QBR because QBR is absolutely idiotic. This is Kirk Cousins. QB 2. Oh, I'm sorry.

Okay. 38, 21 yards, 31 TDs, 6.68 yards per pass, 92.7 QB rating. Which one is Kirk Cousins and which one is Aaron Rodgers? Well, you'd have to, the one, the first one with the better numbers is Kirk Cousins. He's having a better season. Aaron Rodgers is a Rodgers. Well, you'd have to, the one, the first one with the better numbers is Kirk Cousins. He's having a better season. Yeah. And he's over 70%. Aaron Rodgers is a better quarterback.

But man, if you took out that Hail Mary. Yeah. He's under 3,700 yards for the season. He played the entire. Right. He played the entire season.

Yeah. I don't, do they make the playoffs if he doesn't complete the Hail Mary? Um. They do, right? Because nobody would have.

Yeah, they still would have made it. They would have been a six seed, though. But, yeah. I like the way Washington's playing. Sure, why not? We haven't gotten to the line yet. I sent you my guess, but I do think that that's not. Yeah.

That's a legitimate home dog. It's just hard because I don't think we and i sent you i don't know if you saw the the list of wild card matchups for the last 10 years and every year i was gung-ho about at least one team probably two and uh gung-ho home team or just anything one of the teams it was probably a home team along the way like last year i loved uh pittsburgh over baltimore the year before um who do we love that lost my favorite round one ever was i mean tebow over pittsburgh was my favorite pick ever i love pittsburgh there oh i love denver i know and we loved new orleans over seattle that one year like every year i lose a ton of money on something like that but i don't have that this year but this year we have to look forward to the second round like who do we want making the second round so we can bet

against them like you just said you wouldn't even go you don't even know houston at denver what there's no easy bets i'm saying the rest of the way i don't think i think kirk cousins on the road in round two is pretty tasty right i feel that it's similar to him as I did about Fitzpatrick, that it's going to happen. It's going to rear to go ahead at some point. Possibly go to Carolina unless Seattle won. Yeah. Hold on. With the rankings.

I know. It's going to be hard. I got Cincy at number nine, 25 to one odds. Now they're saying Dalton might play this week. Who the hell knows? I don't see how you're going to be effective with a broken thumb. I don't think they care if he plays. I think they're almost like, yeah, sit out another week.

Yeah. I don't know. He'd die.. I think they're almost like, yeah, sit out another week. Yeah. I don't know. He'd die of Adrian McCarron's hair red. Yeah. Minnesota at 8, 35-1. Did they win you over at all yesterday with anything? I think that defense is damn tough. They're going to make a miserable time for any quarterback,

but I still think Teddy Two Gloves has to complete three big passes. Yeah. Right? Teddy Two Gloves. And I don't see, I don't know. I don't know that that's going to happen. If Patterson doesn't get stripped on that long return, they win that game by two touchdowns. And we're talking about how good Minnesota is.

Right. But what if they don't get the defensive touchdown? Then it's just down to the last drive. So I think those five are in one tier. Houston, Washington, Green Bay, Cincy, Minnesota. Now you're moving into the seven teams that actually have a chance to win the Super Bowl. So we do have seven teams now. There are seven.

Really, we have three, but we have at least, because somebody from the AFC is going to make it. So what did you have for Cincy's odds, 25 to 1? Yeah. Yeah, that's a two seed, a 25 to 1. A three seed. But let's yeah that's keep going so i got denver at 7 6 to 1 i have pittsburgh at 6 there's 7 to 1 odds of kansas city at 5 24 to 1 odds and the pats at 4 plus 450 my top three are nfc teams but KC's 24-1. They're playing Houston round one.

If the three seed Cincinnati takes care of business at home against Pittsburgh, KC goes to Denver in round two. Right. Which is the all-time winnable one versus four matchup for the four seed that I can remember. Sure. If Andy Reid wasn't on the sidelines i agree yeah i know andy is on the sidelines he's gotta get he's gotta get past this game he doesn't want to play off game casey's dream scenario is is uh the three seed wins they get to go to denver right and then then Cincy somehow beats New England in round two. Sure.

And they get to play basically beating up Peyton Manning and then whoever the Cincy QB is. And Casey's all of a sudden in the Super Bowl. Right. That's not likely. Casey's worst case scenario is J.J. Watt just demolishes them. I was just going to say, yeah. Part of that dream has to be getting by Houston

after eight straight playoff losses. Has there ever been a more obvious Shakey's pizza matchup than casey houston we have our annual banquet which brad who won our fantasy league is very excited about and uh i have to bring the trophy since i won last year to shakey's probably this saturday for the early game the shakey's pizza match casey houston. I think Casey Houston for the last five years has been that early Saturday game. One of them. Hoyer! Smith!

No Macklin, maybe. This is going to be fun. Is that true? Maybe, yeah. What's wrong with him? He just says he's not up for it. I did a ton of homework. How did I know Macklin's hurt? No, he got hurt. What did he do? Oh, Jesus. Tate, he got hurt, right? I'm trying to think where. He got hurt, Macklin's hurt? No, he got hurt. What did he do? He got hurt, right?

He got hurt, but he's supposed to play. I think he's supposed to play. Well, I think all four of those teams could win. If you're just looking about what's a savvy wager, I think KC at 24-1 are the best odds. That's pretty good, double-digit. I don't see why their odds are so dramatically different

than the other teams. I think Denver at 6-1. I don't remember one seed at 6-1. Have you in a long time? They're not making the Super Bowl. I don't see that. 6-1 is pretty good. Yeah, you're right. They are one seed.

Well, if you had told me three weeks ago I could have the Pats at plus 450, I would have been excited. Well, do it. I don't feel great about it. What are we waiting for? What are we waiting for? So line. What are we waiting for? So these last three teams are all about plus 450. Is that what it is?

Yeah, 450 or worse. So they're not. Oh, the last three, Seattle. I have Seattle ranked third at plus 600. I have Carolina ranked second at plus 500 for their Super Bowl odds. And then Arizona is plus 450. So I didn't watch any of the Seattle-Arizona game because I didn't think Arizona was going to try. I thought for sure that they were like,

oh, Carolina's getting the one seed. Tampa's not beating them. Let's just, we'll go half-assed. Which seems like that's what happened. And yet everybody's like, Seattle! They throttled Arizona. So did Arizona try or not? I didn't watch the game.

I don't know what happened. Here's what's weird. So Tuesday, I have to do my ESPN thing Tuesday, very early in the week, because they're devoted to college football. So I'm driving out. I have Seattle as a pick on a teaser plus 10. I was like, that's going to be good. Arizona's going to look up at the scoreboard.

They're going to see Carolina's winning. They're not going to have any reason to play. I hear on the radio that Carroll's going to sit as starters. And then I look online. The line jumps to seven. I was like, oh, I'm taking Arizona on a teaser. Minus one. Then Carroll starts all of a sudden.

Like gangbusters, these guys come out. They're unstoppable. Russell Wilson's running around like they're going to get kicked out of playoffs for the next 10 years if they don't win. I don't know. I think he showed too much there. If anyone could have snuck up on you, maybe Seattle could have snuck up on Minnesota

or some of these playoff teams. Now they're like, oh, they're the most dangerous team again. We have to look out. I have a question, because I had to hear over and over again last night on various channels how Seattle's red hot, nobody wants to play these guys, watch out for Seattle. Maybe it was the holidays, I might have eaten too much.

So I might have imagined this. I might have hallucinated it. It might have been like the Revenant. Like I might have been in some sort of coma and just saw Indians dancing over me. I could have sworn Seattle scored 10 points against the Rams in week 16 and got their asses kicked. Did that happen or did I imagine that? Yeah, that happened. So why are they red hot?

Yeah. They lost to Case Keenum by 13 points. And the Steelers lost to the Ravens pretty handily, too. I'm positive you're not red hot if you lost in Week 16 and you scored 10 points against Case Keenum and Jeff Fisher in the Rams. That means you're not red hot. That's going to be my overall message to gamblers here who all want to take the road team or something.

Just be careful. And Carolina, who is the best team the whole season, who finally played a shit game in Week 16 and then killed Tampa in Week 17 and everybody's not like, Carolina. It's the road goes through them. The road still goes through them, in my opinion.

I'm personally the most afraid of Arizona for the Patriots. I think it's a bad matchup for them. Me too. I think Arizona's the best bet for the Super Bowl. But Cam, might be Cam's year. Yeah. No, that's a good game

if that comes down to the finals. Let's ask Tate. Who are you most afraid of? Seattle or Arizona? Arizona. You are? Yeah. Tate said he's more afraid of Arizona.

Carolina, there are some parallels with Curry and the Warriors and the whole Carolina connection. Like the Warriors, the whole year, everybody's like, eh, can't take them seriously.

You can't win with jump shots. And all of a sudden they won the title. And the Panthers, same thing. Who are their weapons? They're in a bad division. Do they have an Iguodala we could bet for MVP at 100-1? It's probably Ted Ginn Jr. Yeah, maybe. If he even plays again. A couple

last points before we get to the round one lines mvp watch yeah it's all kim unanimous right yeah because brady tailed off too much right i don't see palmer there was talk of palmer but russell wilson first six weeks of the season has to count. Josh Freeman? MVP? I don't know. Came in, might have saved Chuck Pagano's job. I was emotional.

You were, huh? Yeah. It was like a sports movie. Josh Freeman's back. You almost called me. He's only like 22 years old. Shut up. No, he's like 26.

Wilson was 25 TDs, two picks in the second half of the season. Wow. And then they lost Jimmy Graham and it somehow made them better. Jimmy Graham Wilson was 25 TDs two picks in the second half of the season wow and then they lost Jimmy Graham and it somehow

made them better Jimmy Graham and Jamal Charles two of the biggest losers of this season right they lose both of them and the team falls apart

whereas like Deion Lewis I think is a big winner he gets hurt the offense is never the same Le'Veon Bell can't be too you know

gung ho about this too oh Le'Veon Bell well DeAngelo gung-ho about this too. Oh, Le'Veon Bell. Well, D'Angelo Williams got hurt, which is an interesting Pittsburgh wrinkle. Right. QBs that played in Week 17. Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley, who was selling real estate, Kellen Moore for your

Cowboys. 437 yards. Austin Davis, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Case Keenum, and A.J. McCarron. The hateful eight. Oh. Yeah, thank you. There you go.

Thank you. Thank you. I'll be here all week. I can't believe there's only eight. The hateful eight. That has to be the worst week 17 we've ever had. Yeah. The hurtful eight.

The hurtful eight. You know, i think that is why and johnny manziel is probably done with the browns it seems and they're talking about trading him but they're talking about trading him you no one can pick him up right right and it's nice to have a backup with a name whatever it's fun he runs around but now in this day and age you see that a backup quarterback it's like having electing 12 presidents in a row that get shot. And you have to go with the vice president. Like a backup is going to play. It's,

it's, you know, couples are going to get divorced. This is what, what's going to happen. A backup is going to play. You can't have Johnny Manziel running around. I think he's done.

I like the, uh, there was a narrative who knows if it's true or not, that he just wants to play for Dallas. Yeah. And he's kind of let himself go the last week to make sure Cleveland released him. That's a great strategy, Johnny. Very professional.

You know, he signed up for a TV, did you hear about the show? No. Did I tell you about this? I guess we didn't talk about this yesterday. Because he's going to be done on Sundays now. He's not playing football. So he's taking over the pool party in Vegas at the Hard Rock on Sunday morning, Sunday afternoon.

And he's doing it with the Montreal Canadiens. It's a weird thing. I don't know why he went in business. Montreal Canadiens? Yeah, it's called Rehabs. And it's Johnny and it's the Montreal Canadiens. And Penn and Tower come by and they do tricks with the hockey sticks and pucks and everything. But yeah, that's what he's doing on Sundays now.

Rehabs. Rehabs. It's on the Captain Morgan website. Is it a reality show or is it a scripted? It's a lightly scripted reality show. That's a pretty good one. Yeah, rehabs. I like that one.

Rehabs. That's it. Check it out. Check it out. Here's another thing, though. Why doesn't Cleveland... LA doesn't want a team. Whatever.

You could say people... We don't want a team. But we should have temporary teams. Like the Browns should be like, look, we just need two years to get tan. We're going to move the team just for two years to LA. We promise we won't be good in those two years. What do we have? We don't have a quarterback, wide receiver, running back to get excited about. Cleveland, we'll be back in 2019.

We take two teams for two years. That's it. Almost like teams for hire? Yeah. Yeah, they come here. They need a break. They need to decompress. I don't.

The only L.A. team that I think should come back is the Rams because they were here already. I think the Raiders should stay in Oakland. And I like having the San Diego Chargers. They've been there forever. They're going to come to LA? Who cares? I kind of like how it is now, too. It's supposed to be big news this week, though.

For something. There's going to be an LA team because that's what the league wants. It's a Super Bowl location. It's the Chargers. Don't say anything. Yeah, it's going to be the Chargers. Don't say anything. Their stadium's a Super Bowl location It's the Chargers Don't say anything Yeah it's gonna be the Chargers Yeah don't say anything

I mean their stadium's a mess They can't stay there It doesn't seem like It just seems like That stadium's in the worst shape Of all the stadiums I think it's getting termite tented In like two weeks

What's funny though Or not funny but You really can't justify Building a football stadium unless you have two NFL teams. Because I was looking, my friend Nathan showed me a list of all the concerts that have happened in all the different stadiums. And the football stadium, like if your average football stadium, unless it's the one in New

York, has like seven concerts a year. Right. So let's say you have 10 football games and seven concerts and one soccer game. That's 18 events. There's nothing else. Like maybe a pay UFC pay-per-view or something like that. What could you even do? And these freaking billionaires tell the, tell the towns or the cities or whatever,

like, Oh, it's going to be great for you guys. It's like, how is that great? It's not enough. Like where that Dallas stadium is. How is that great for Dallas? It's in the middle of nowhere. Like when we went to Dallas that time, we were at some weird barbecue place

15 minutes away from the stadium and then you sit in traffic trying to get there. How is the San Francisco stadium good for people in San Francisco? Because it's not even in San Francisco. It's like not even in San Jose. Where the hell is that? That's way far.

How does that help the community? No, I don't think it does. And who cares? You're a Dallas fan. You live here. Yeah. I don't know. That's the whole thing.

It's really stupid. We don't need a team. We don't need a team. I wish everyone would stay in the same place. But the Rams moving back here, I don't totally have a problem with. They were here. It would make Corolla happy. Last thing. have a problem they were here it would make corolla happy uh last thing cleveland um

the owners fired three coaches three gms and two presidents in like three and a half years that's pretty good it's pretty good maybe he should have a hulu show very active should have a hulu show jimmy haslam yeah open coaching jobs right now miami cleveland philly san francisco and we also might have the saints tennessee indiana san diego and the giants i was just gonna say it hasn't been announced but we're gonna do this podcast and then like an hour like seven coaches we just sit here in silence and just just wait twitter yeah refresh pro football talk yeah and you know what i'm thinking tom coughlin i think we make fun of him and everything but i think we've been a little mean this guy 340 get whatever it was

if i were him i'd be like screw you everyone i i went to the handshake in the middle of the field i drop my drawers and just run just run out there like an old man like you see in the sauna at the the 24-hour fitness the old old man naked, just running about. Don't say a word to anyone. I keep waiting for them to fire him, and then he gets another job. I know. So GM's going to go, too. Chip Kelly, are you glad to have him out of your division?

You know, there was a time when the best coach in the NFC East got to keep his job. Now I'm not glad. I don't know. It's the devil you know. I was never afraid of what Chip Kelly had to offer. What do you think happens to him? I think he goes to San Francisco. San Francisco.

And I think he rejuvenates Colin Kaepernick. And I think that's... If I'm the NFC West, I'm afraid of that. Yeah. He'll learn from some of the stuff that happened in Philly. I like getting people in their second chance. Right, all right. Don't mind it. afraid of that yeah yeah he'll learn from some of the stuff that happened in philly you know i like getting people in their second chance right all right don't mind it but if he goes to tennessee you'd be pissed wouldn't you if he if he's mario and his guy it's like that that just worked out

too well well also it seems like reading today it seems like tennessee might be able to turn that number one pick into like a godfather yeah uh slate of picks, that team might be pretty good. I like some of the guys on that team. Bad division. Yeah. If I was a coach, though, I'd want Indianapolis. That's the job you'd want? Yeah, because you get luck.

Right. How do you feel if you're Sean Payton where it's already common knowledge that your team would trade you for a second round pick? Yeah. I'd be offended it wasn't a first. Yeah, I know. Like, it's one thing if you just don't get re-up,

but like, if you actually know your value, it's kind of a real slap in the face. I'm surprised ESPN didn't try to do that with me. Try to trade me for second round pick. Knowing that I would have been insulted that it wasn't a lottery pick. All right, we got to do... They should, by the way,

they call this Black Monday in NFL. Yeah. I would think like Anthony Anderson, he should just be at a podium all day. It should be Blackish Monday. He's at a podium and every like 45 minutes he announces a firing in the NFL.

It's great. It's just another event. Black Monday sounds like a Hulu show. We should have thought of that. I don't know what the theme is, but Black Monday. It's premiering next month. Shout out to SimpliSafe Home Security. They worked with me to put together a massive security arsenal for our listeners.

Entry sensors, motion sensors, glass break, everything you need to stop criminals from ever touching your home. It's not holiday season anymore, but you can to stop criminals from ever touching your home. It's not holiday season anymore, but you can still get $100 off the special holiday package from SimpliSafe and guarantee yourself complete protection for your home. No contracts, no commitments. And again, as your special post-holiday offer, you get $100 off my hand-picked security package. Go to SimpliSafeBill.com and save $100 on my security pick. That's SimpliS safe bill.com and save a hundred hours on my security pick that's simply safe bill.com i wish i had simply safe when i was talking to you yesterday about teasers and yeah and parlays and all this stuff because i feel like they maybe they could have saved me

maybe i need motion sensors for my own gambling right they should be able to intervene all right good lord without further ado. Oh, I had one last thing for you before we get to the picks. What is it? Our winner of best record against the spread in the 2017 regular season was? 2017? 2015. What year was this year?

Oh, wow. 2015. It was Minnesota. Minnesota Vikings. 13-3 against, wow. 2015. It was Minnesota. Minnesota Vikings. 13-3 against the spread. And they didn't cover in round one, or week one. Week one against San Francisco. Threw everyone off their scent and ripped off a 13-2 the rest of the way.

Wow. Amazing. Good for them. Where were we on that one? I don't know, but no one's taking them this week. Number two, Cincinnati Bengals. Right. 12-3-1 against the spread. No one's taking them this week. Number three, the Carolina Panthers.

No one's taking them this week either, but it's because they're not playing. 11-5-1 against the spread. And then everyone's in the middle of the pack. Here are our worst teams against the spread. Baltimore, 5-9-2. Miami, 5-11. Baltimore had some close, crazy field goal ending. Stupid.

Tennessee, 4-11-1. Yeah. And last but not least, your own Dallas Cowboys. Yeah. Covered four games this year. 4-11-1 against the spread. I believe it. Number four pick.

So there is something to be learned from this, though. Because if you... And I used to write about this on ESPN.com. Like, you go into the season and you think, I'm going to back these couple teams.

I'm going to ride these teams. And I'm going to kind of short these other teams. And if you went into the season and you said, I think Philly's going to suck. I'm not buying them. I think Indianapolis

is going to suck. I think Baltimore's going to suck. I think San Francisco's going to think Indianapolis is going to suck. I think Baltimore is going to suck. I think San Francisco is going to suck. You would have done well. And if you went into the season and you said I like Minnesota. I like Carolina. I think people are sleeping on them. You would have done well.

Now you have to go into the season knowing about nine teams that are going to do well. Carolina was 7-8-1 last year. But anyway. Can I just say one thing about Sean Lee? Yeah. Great man. Great cowboy.

Gets a $2 million escalator bonus if he plays yesterday. Right. And that seems a lot, $2 million for an escalator. I don't know how these malls are surviving, but no. So it's $2 million. Running around the pregame. Says, I don't feel it. Hamstring, it's not working.

I'm sitting out, coach. That's a good guy. Are you sure he's not getting paid under the table? He might. I mean, he might do it anyway. Does Jerry Jones have a production company that's going to buy a Sean Lee documentary for $2 million? No, they might just pay him because sometimes that's what they do.

But he's like, I can't help you here, coach. I'm sitting out. Good guy, that Sean sean lee i like that sean lee penn state all right penn state round one lines i've never been less confident around one well that but that's good that's good want to do uh you want to just go by the time of the game? Yeah, let's go by the time. Okay. So Saturday, 1.30. What channel? KC at Houston. Is this ESPN? Yeah, ESPN.

ESPN, great. I have... God, this can't be right. I have the Chiefs favored by six points. Okay. You're right, it can't be right. I said the Chiefs favored by six points Okay You're right, it can't be right I said the Chiefs by four Three and a half Chiefs favored by three and a half

Wow, Brian Hoyer That's a lot of respect for Brian Hoyer That is a lot What's the money line? Chiefs like minus 180? Probably 190 or something. Yeah, somewhere in there. We're going to feel this way about every road team.

They're just better. So what was the year, I'm going to say five years ago, TJ Yates started a road game. We have it here. With QBIAC, and they won 20 to 10. That was against Cincinnati? Against Cincinnati. Against Dalton.

This thing says they're home for those games, but yeah. Or maybe it was in Cincinnati. Matt Schaub was hurt. T.J. Yates played. Right. T.J. Yates to me is the... Brian Hoyer? The quality line for one of the worst quarterbacks that has ever started round one.

Right. I think the worst ever, I think Chris Sims started a playoff game a million years ago for tampa that was bad the worst it's been some bad ones the worst one i can think of is ryan lindley who i was 15 and 0 and with my picks and i took ryan lindley on the road against carolina last year plus five and a half he had a million chances to cover that i tried to talk you out of that. Yeah, you did. You definitely did. Didn't your team start Quincy Carter in a playoff game once? Yeah. Yeah. How'd that go? Lost to Carolina. Another one.

That didn't go very well. No. I remember betting against Quincy Carter. That was a bad team. Oof. Alright, so there's one favorite. You're up one nothing on me. KC beat Houston 27-20 in week one. Just be careful

of these. Andy Reid, man. H-Drape playoff losses? This is what he does. He sucks people in. He's sucking me in right now. I know. Andy Reid, Alex Smith, Charkandrick West. Who's the other guy?

Where? Spencer where? You can't blame Candy West for this char kendrick west justin houston missed four in a row that's big if he comes back it's a big all right saturday night yeah 8 15 this is nbc right this is your boy collinsworth pittsburgh at cincinnati they split in the regular season Pittsburgh knocked Andy Dalton out of the box and now we have AJ McCarron probably starting

and the 10 year anniversary of the Kimo von Ohlhoffen game oh right took out Carson Palmer in the first play one of the all time I'm super excited my team just scored

a touchdown oh wait my quarterback's writhing around on the ground and my season's over that wasn't good for them moments I have God i have no idea if this is right or not i have cincy by two and a half now you were way off here i hit this exactly pittsburgh by three

i thought dalton was coming back though it's pittsburgh bite the ring go bet the bangles this is what i mean they put it right where you don't want to bet pittsburgh here right i don't want to bet pittsburgh anyway i'm gonna bet mike tomlin on the road okay i know you have a why is there what's good about their defense no nothing i'm gonna i'm gonna just you like Cincy here. All right. Well, no, I'm just... They gave up 35 points to the Raiders. They gave up 39 points to the Seahawks. They gave up 27 points to Brock Osweiler. Yeah, I was just going to say,

whatever Ryan Mallett's numbers are, I know they didn't score a lot, but that should be graded on a curve. Oh, the Ravens? Yeah, they lost 20 to 17. So that's that should be that should be graded on a curve oh the ravens yeah the they lost 20 to 17 so that's like 50 20 points to ryan mallett's like i think it's a lousy defense that um when they get a couple turnovers they look like a decent defense but if they don't get any turnovers you just you just have long drives on them. Right. Sexy fantasy players.

That's why everybody likes them. Eifert's playing, right? For Cincy? I think he is. He came back last week after a concussion. Mm-hmm. I don't love the Bengals' running game. I want to like it more than I actually do. Yeah.

I thought Jeremy Hill was going to be better this year. He had better numbers than you would think. I know, he did. But it seemed like it was stacked. When you watch him, though, it's like that LeGarrette blunt. You're just like, how's this guy getting to 75 yards? The A.J. Green thing, the Steelers,

William Gay, can throw him on A.J. Green. I can't see betting Cincinnati in this. They're just going to get a minimum 20 Pittsburgh out of those players. Antonio Brown's uncoverable. What's the Cincy first round streak what is it

their own five did they win last year in the first round yeah let's see we have it here no they got killed by the colts isn't dalton he's never won a playoff game right well they've never won a playoff game with marvin lewis and dalton and they lost to san diego the year before right and they lost to houston twice is that right yikes i might have that wrong i wanted to say pittsburgh by three but i i didn't know it's too late i didn't know if the gamblers would give them that kind of respect but apparently vegas feels like people like pittsburgh they love seattle god i'm way off let's do it the year from hell for me sunday 1 1 p.m., Seattle at Minnesota. Oh,

crap. I probably went too low on this. I have Seattle by five. I put it right in the Vegas zone. You went too low. I went way low. I said Seattle by three. Six and a half. Oh, no. But it opened at three and a half, went to seven, then went to five. It's been bouncing around, 6.5.

So we just saw two weeks ago, we saw Seattle lose to a team that isn't much different than this Vikings team. Very good defense, good running back, didn't make any mistakes, and they won 23-10, the Rams. The Vikings are a better version of the Rams. That line's too high. I agree. Seattle beat them 38-7 earlier this year,

earlier this month, December. Wow. I just think, so you got KC, Pittsburgh, Seattle. Everyone's going to want to bet those. I think when Obama issues like a red alert, terror alert, this is what I'm doing. Be careful with these games. Everybody wants these road teams.

So that's three road teams favored. If you look in that thing I gave you, in the last 10, 11 years, we only had two road teams favored once. So we're calling this a Michael Conrad week? Yeah. I used to write about that. I like that. The guy in Hill Street Blues.

Yeah. A million years ago. First grade cop show. He used to come out. He used to warn the cops. Blah that. The guy in Hill Street Blues. Yeah. A million years ago. First great cop show. He used to come out. He used to warn the cops. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then he would say, let's be careful out there. I think this is a Michael Conrad week.

This is it. Be careful. Actually, 2009, I guess there were three road favorites. The late, great Michael Conrad. Is he dead? Oh, yeah. He died on Hill Street Blues. Oh, right, right, right.

He had cancer when he was on the show. Yeah. So one interesting wrinkle with that game, they're playing it at noon Minnesota time, which is 10 a.m. Seattle time. Tough for the West Coast. That's weird. Going east-ish, yeah. Yeah.

And then they're going to have to do it next week, too, if they go to Carolina. Yeah, I don't know if I like that for Seattle. I also, I don't like the fact that Seattle seems to have false confidence considering they lost to the Rams. I think the cards, I think the cards just went vanilla on them. Yeah, don't want to show anything. They knew they were getting the two seed. 36-6?

That doesn't seem reflective of anything. Right, right. Then week 15, they beat the Browns. Week 14, they beat the two seed. 36-6? That doesn't seem reflective of anything. Right. Then week 15, they beat the Browns. Week 14, they beat the Ravens. They killed the Vikings. Came back in that Steelers game, which was, you know, that game could have gone either or. You said it, but Russell Wilson's having a great second half. What does he have, two interceptions?

Yeah, they're going to have to play well. They're going to miss Thomas Lou Ross. Right, no Thomas Lou Ross. Beast mode might come back. Right, he's going to practice this week. That seems too high. I don't know. That's not a lot of respect for Minnesota.

I know it does. But this is going to be the, like, oh, I knew it week. This is the I knew it week. I hate this week. It's also the be careful. I might not bet this week. It's also the I knew it. Because if we stay off Kansas City and they win 23-13, oh, I knew it. it's also to be careful i might not bet this week it's also the i knew it because if we stay off kansas city and they win 23 13 oh i knew it same with pittsburgh and seattle

just don't let me parlay anybody this week we're not doing this stay away from this okay seattle alabama two-team money line parlay can't lose all right gosh 4 40 p.m. Sunday, Green Bay at Washington. So Barnwell and his column today, which led ESPN.com as usual, even though they never led with Barnwell or Zach ever in four years of Grantland. Cousins, since you like that game, 23 touchdowns and three picks. Wow. Wow. You do like that. You Like That game. Yeah. 23 touchdowns and three picks. Wow. Wow. You do like that.

You like that a little bit. He's the hottest quarterback right now. Is he one of the best 10 quarterbacks? Ever? Sure. No, right now. No. I don't know.

I don't know. I don't know what to say. Would you rather have him or Teddy Bridgewater? I think that's close. Would you rather have him or any Houston guy? I think That's close Would you rather have him or any Houston guy? You'd rather have Cousins Yeah, Cousins Would you rather have him or either of the Denver guys? Oh, you paused

I don't know Oh, that's it You'd rather have Cousins Yeah, I know I think so I gotta say, I didn't mind Osweiler I mean, we've seen two months of him now It's really good I didn't mind Osweiler I mean we've seen two months of him now It's really good

I didn't mind Osweiler Yeah Remember How I genuinely believed That Belichick Jedi mind tricked The Seahawks Into throwing the ball

Yeah I hate that Yeah I really do believe That that's what he did And then it was basically Confirmed in the NFL film show I think he Jedi mind tricked The Denver

Into going back to Manny Week 17 Right You think so? They threw away week 16 Week 17 film show. I think he Jedi mind tricked Denver into going back to Manny week 17. Right. They threw away week 16 week 17. They put it so that the Broncos had to get the one seed. Belichick knew that the Chargers were going to have a big first half and get all those

turnovers and then Manny was going to get back in because he was more afraid of Brock Osweiler. This one I actually don't believe. Someone wrote or tweeted that the Patriots fans when they're defending Belichick, their IQ goes down 30 points. I said that was outrageous. It's more like 50. It's 75.

It is funny, though. I promise you that the Patriots were more worried about Osweiler getting momentum and being good than broken down Manning. Manning was awful the whole season. Right, all right. But if that's what's going to beat him, what if it's the Denver defense that steps up again and you can't run the ball? Yeah, that's fine.

And then Manning's not even a factor. Well, his audibles will be something else, I'll tell you that much. Omaha. Two offsides. Green Bay, Washington. Green Bay, Washington. I mean, I'm so off with all these other games. I'm sure I'm off with this one.

I have Green Bay by three and a half. You are off with this. I was off as well. I said two and a half. The Washington Redskins are favored by one point. Wow. You proud of them? That's like a proud.

Wow. I was all spired up to bet on Cousins as an underdog. And they're favored. They won by two. I thought for sure. Vegas sets these lines toired up to bet on Cousins as an underdog. Well, he could win by one. He could win by two. I thought for sure. Vegas sets these lines to get people to bet equally. And I thought for sure they would rig it with the Green Bay because the Green Bay is a public team.

They couldn't go with four road favorites. They couldn't do it, Vegas. They were close. Washington by one. Oh, I don't like that. We were so excited to bet against Hoyer or Cousins or any of these other guys, and we can't do it now. McCarron, one of these guys is going to be terrible this week.

I'm looking through Washington's. So Washington, favored in week seven against the Bucs, didn't cover. Favored against the Cowboys Week 13 didn't cover Favorite in week 17 Against Dallas Did cover They've only been favored Three times this season

How is that possible? Is that it? Is that possible? Yeah Against the Giants at home They weren't favored? No No

The Giants were plus Were minus two and a half Week 12 Wow yeah I guess those AFC East teams They wouldn't be favored So the Sk skins were only favored three times all year and they are now favored in a round one playoff game against aaron rogers who

cannot get anyone to relax right there's no relaxing no i wouldn't listen to him this time yeah it's bizarre oh they all i would never tell anyone to stay away all weekend but this is a tough one this is a tough one did uh round two what do you want what do you want to what do you want to bet you want to bet caroline over washington that's your best bet right now so you're saying we think ahead yeah but i don't even know what to look at like i don't want to bet against Cincinnati. I guess Cincinnati at New England. I got to say, I need three, four days to really look at this.

I don't feel good about anything other than Casey winning in Houston, which means I'd be betting on Andy Reid, which means I'm not going to do that. Right. Might just sit it out. I know. I feel like three or four days is going to convince me. Just go to a spa. Convince me to do something stupid.

When do you have to have your SportsCenter picks by? Thursday night. Will your Squarespace site be ready by then? Could they do it? Are they that good? I'm going to take a sauna with Tom Coughlin first and think things over, I think. What do you have to promote for us? Let's do it.

Jimmy Kimmel Live. Tonight, we're back. Jennifer Lopez, Bachelor, Ben Higgins. Later in the week, Bill Maher, Brie Larson, Kate Blanchett, Kevin Durant, basketball player. He'll be on the show. And follow me at The Cousin Sal. SportsCenter Thursday night.

13-4 with best bets. I try to keep it going. I don't know. 13-4 is really good. How many points did you win the Chargers by? Like a point? Point and a half? No, they were getting nine.

And then when Denver needed to win, it went to like ten and a half. Wow. Yeah. Speaking of The Bachelor, on the Channel 33 podcast, Juliette Lippman is going to launch her weekly Bachelor podcast this week with a bunch of guests, all that stuff. So subscribe to that. Thanks to SimpliSafe Home Security. Remember, right now they're offering my listeners an absolutely incredible offer.

$100 off my hand-picked security package. You get complete protection for your home. Go to simplysavebill.com and save $100 on my security pick. No contracts,

no commitments. Simplysavebill.com. Thanks to Squarespace. Use offer code BS for 10% off Sal's first website. Yeah. Thanks to NatureBox.

Visit naturebox.com slash BS for 50% off your first box. Thanks to HBO. You don't need cable or satellite to watch HBO anymore. Just download the HBO Now app. Start your free one month trial today. Thanks to SeatGeek, the presenting sponsor of both the BS Podcast and Channel 33. Subscribe to both on iTunes, Stitcher, or SoundCloud.

We have more podcasts coming this week and then House and I are going to make our playoff picks on Friday I really hope I have a better feel for this good luck to you I've hated this season it's been bad all the quarterbacks got hurt, the flake gate concussions

just lingering over everything the concussion movie came and went did you see it? not that good half-assed better than star i want to be on the poster half-assed bill simmons yeah uh yeah just they didn't if you're gonna do it do it don't do the half-assed version i wouldn't be surprised if their hands were tied by the nfl themselves oh i i definitely would not be surprised by that. Yeah. I just didn't love this season.

Didn't like it? No. Did you? No, but let's make some money. Your team got annihilated? No, it was bad. You got that highest pick you've had in 25 years, though. Number four.

Let's trade it. Is this the year you get into the draft? Yeah, I think so. I like the draft. Are we going to do a special draft podcast? Maybe. There's a linebacker for Alabama, UCLA. If we trade down, we could do something with the poor notre dame guy got hurt yeah that was

bad that was like right in your wheelhouse not fun i wish you were watching that oregon tcu game oregon's up 31 nothing at half it's probably the greatest over ever over under 73 and a half it's 31 nothing the oregon kid gets hurt he gets a concussion he's out the tcu quarterback already punched the cop so he's out yeah and that'll happen and then they come back and they tie it at 31 and it goes way over just touchdown touchdown field goal field goal line goes over and uh and tcu wins that was fun i love how upset people got about the new year's eve ratings on twitter. Yeah. Yeah.

I might give up Twitter for 2016. Why? What are these up thinking about? I thought you would like that. ESPN took a big hit there. No, it's just, who cares? When you're ready to talk about ratings, oh, the ratings are down. Who cares about game ratings? The thing that sucked was that the games sucked.

The games were bad, yeah. I don't mind the idea of having games on New Year's Eve and having that kind of lingering around. I think it's super stupid from a college football standpoint. From the second half of the Clemson game on, it was all shut out. It seems like the game should have been on Saturday. They should just own Saturdays, right? Saturday, have those doubleheader, and then that would have been a whole thing. New Year's Eve weekend.

Next week, the NFL is probably going to run all their games on Saturday because Christmas is Sunday. Yeah. But ESPN is locked into this. Oh, forever. Seven of the next ten years on New Year's Eve. And paid for a certain rating that they have no chance of getting. They'll make them move that.

You think so? Oh, yeah. That's not going to last. They claim there are a lot of people watching on the app. That's always good when they start going with weird digital things that can't be proven i should be quiet oh the watch uh is pin watch whatever it's called yeah i what's funny is that people get so upset at the ncaa which is like one of the worst and most corrupt institutions we have and does everything wrong people like oh what does the ncaa think it's like these guys are terrible what are you talking about right they have no plan for anything yeah uh who do you institutions we have and does everything wrong. People are like, oh, what does the NCAA think? It's like, these guys are terrible.

What are you talking about? They have no plan for anything. Who do you like for that game, by the way? When is it? It's next. It's a week from today. Oh, so we can do the pick next week? Yeah, we'll do it next week.

All right. Cuz, good job by you. Good job by you, Billy. We'll be back later in the week with more BS reports. Play us out, Tupac. We about this bitch. Anytime y'all want to see me again, rewind this track right here. reports. Play us out, Tupac.