The Bill Simmons Podcast - Ep. 47: Friday Rollin' w/ Joe House

Episode Date: January 8, 2016

HBO's Bill Simmons brings on Joe House to discuss NFL Wild Card weekend starting with KC-Texans (5:00), Pitt-Cincy (15:00), Seattle-Vikings (30:00) and Packers-Washington (44:00). Then talking NBA with Celts (1:07:00), Suns (1:18:00), OKC future bets (1:20:00) and more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode is brought to you by SeatGeek, our presenting sponsor and favorite app for buying and selling tickets for sports and music. I used SeatGeek to buy Billy Joel tickets for my wife and daughter at MSG last night, and they had an awesome time. And Billy Joel, keep cranking, man. We love you. Go to SeatGeek.com slash BS to learn how to buy and sell on SeatGeek. Don't forget to download the free SeatGeek app and our promo code BS.

That happens to be my initials. What a coincidence. And SeatGeek will send you $20 once you've made your first purchase. Oh, and this is a good one. House, you're going to get hungry just from this read. You ready? Today's episode is also brought to you by Blue Apron. Stop ordering expensive takeout house for less than $10 per meal. Blue Apron will deliver ordering expensive takeout, House, for less than $10 per meal. Blue Apron will deliver you all the fresh ingredients you need for a delicious and healthy home-cooked meal. Hey, House. Uh-huh. Would you eat Juicy Lucy burgers with frizzled onion and butter lettuce walnut salad?

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Right now. You can get your first two meals for free by going to blueapron.com. BS. And it's time for Friday Rollin'. It's a special, special, special, special, special edition of Friday Rollin'. House, you ready? I mean, it's Friday and we're rolling. Happy New Year. Yeah, we took last week off.

I don't think anyone cared because nobody listens to podcasts during holiday week. Although people, it was like, I don't know, 80% of what we normally get. But it does seem like, I don't think people missed us that much. But they would miss us this week because it's round one. My dream in life is to go 11-0 against the spread in round one. I have no other dreams. I've won titles in all my sports. All my Boston teams have won titles.

Actually, my daughter winning a state cup in soccer, that's a dream. Going 11-0 against the spread, I think that's a dream. I don't have much left. House, you haven't gone 11-0 against the spread. I think that's a dream. I don't have much left. House, have you ever gone, you haven't gone 11-0 against the spread, right? No, I think I lost one game three years ago on one of my hot streaks. The year that Seattle beat the pants off Denver,

I lost one game that year. So, really weird outcome, and then now it's flipped because it seems like Washington is going to end up being favored against Green Bay. But for, on like Thursday, all four road teams were favored in round one, and I immediately tweeted out the Hill Street Blues, Michael Conrad, let's be careful out there, Link. Because nothing makes me more nervous than road favorites in the playoffs. It's just pretty damning. In the wildcard round, which I think started, I don't know, somewhere in the mid-'80s, late-'80s, whatever, early-'90s. When did the wildcard round start? I don't even remember.

Home dogs, 12-8 straight up, and 13-7 against the spread in the wildcard round. Now, 13-7, if you're betting a million dollars a game, you're rolling. You're in Mexico. You're living with Haral Bob or somewhere, wherever Haral Bob lives. Road dogs are road favorites. Are you scared of the road favorites this week, Cass? Against the spread, yes, I am. I mean, there's two different things going on here.

I like very much a couple of the road favorites to win the games outright. You're talking money lines. Yeah, I don't like laying points to them. I mean, there's a couple of these that I just, maybe three of them, maybe four of them, I don't like laying the points. Well, let's go one at a time. And we'll go in order of how the games are being played. The shaky special on Saturday at 1.30. 1.30 West Coast time.

So I guess 4.30 East Coast time, right? KC is at Houston. And KC was three-point favorites all week, which I loved. And now they're three-and-a-half-point favorites. And I keep waiting for everybody to jump on Houston at some point because it's Andy Reid, because it's the Chiefs, J.J. Watt at his cast-off, Houston home, all that stuff. Just kind of trickle that line to three, and maybe even ideally two and a half.

Doesn't seem to be happening. These two teams are a combined 16-2 since Halloween. Houston's defense is pretty good. Ten points or less they have allowed in six of their last nine games. The Patriots torched them. And I think that's relatively important for what we're about to talk about. They're only good QBs that they've gone against this year. Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Cam Newton.

They're in that putrid. They get to play six games against the AFC South, including one where Luck wasn't there. The case against them, other than the fact that they're Houston, no Dwayne Brown. Left tackle's out. Right tackle's hurt. Might play, might not.

I haven't seen a definitive answer on that. Center's going to play, but had a concussion. Brian Hoyer's had, what, two concussions this year? This feels like one of those picks where you take Houston and you feel like a moron about halfway through the second quarter. What scares you about taking Houston Houston other than everything I mentioned? Everything you just mentioned. I mean, with special emphasis on the moron part,

because that's exactly where I'm going to find myself in this game. I'm not willing to concede three and a half to Kansas City under any circumstances with all of the Andy Reid angles at play here. to concede three and a half to Kansas City under any circumstances with all of the Andy Reid angles at play here. Kansas City 0-10 against the spread in its last ten wild card games. Andy Reid 3-8 against the spread in the playoffs when he's playing a team that's coming off back-to-back wins. 0-5 against the spread when his team is favored.

So this is, to me, an immovable object versus unstoppable force kind of situation. A trend for the Chiefs, a trend that helps the Chiefs. The Houston Texans have held their opponents to 6-6 in 10 points over the last three games. Very impressive. But that works against them, 2-9 against the spread, as an underdog of more than two points. These are a lot of numbers, House. I'm an angles guy. I like the angles. Well, you left out the Chiefs.

How about this? The Chiefs haven't run a road playoff game since 1993, the 1993 season when they won in Houston. We had basically fresh out of college at that point. Yeah. I mean, that's almost 25 years ago. Yeah. OJ and his wife were still married in 1993. To put that in perspective.

That scares me. There's a lot of Andy Reid, Casey, just how many times have we been burned by this situation? Separately with Casey, separately with Andy Reid, and then together, it feels like the perfect storm of, oh yeah, Casey, they're so much better. I'm putting my mortgage on Casey, and then Houston somehow wins, and you're just like, I can't believe I did it again. I can't believe I trusted KC. I can't believe it. What did I do?

See, I actually think Kansas City is going to win. I'm just completely unwilling to lay three and a half. Well, I'm going to make you feel better about that. Justin Houston's back. That's good. KC seems healthy. The line's playing well. They've been playing well. They're on 10 straight.

Houston is... It's not even an are we sure they're a good team. It's are we even sure they're half decent. The Patriots killed them. And it was one of those things where if the Patriots played them 10 times, I think the Patriots would have beaten them 10 times. And one of the things they if the Patriots played them 10 times, I think the Patriots would have beaten them 10 times. And one of the things they did on defense was, you know, you just assume they're going to throw Malcolm Butler on DeAndre Hopkins and want to have him shut him down. That

matchup will decide the game. They just double teamed Hopkins. They didn't even use Butler on Hopkins. They just double teamed them. They just took Hopkins out of the game and they put Butler on Houston's second receiver. And now Houston couldn't throw the ball at all, and it was over. Why wouldn't the Chiefs do that? Why wouldn't the Chiefs do that? And the Chiefs have an excellent secondary. Excellent secondary. Double-team Hopkins, take them out.

Put Peters on Houston's second receiver, which I think is still Nate Washington. It doesn't even seem possible. So who's beating them? Alfred Blue? Brian Hoyer? What if Brian Hoyer gets hurt? You don't realize where one Brian Hoyer hit away

from Brandon Whedon coming into this game. That's another reason I can't take Houston. Wow. Think about that. You're down 10-3 in the second quarter. Hoyer takes a huge hit from Justin Houston. And all of a sudden, oh, and then Anastasio goes, and there's Brandon Whedon warming up.

Oh, my God. Get me out of this bet if I have Houston. I just can't do it. Here's what I think the move is with this game if you're betting on it. I think the move is to use the Kansas City're betting on it I think the move is to use the Houston the uh Kansas City money line which I think is like minus 180 and I think you parlay that with another game you like and then you're protected against then you're protected against the line but um we have to pick against the spread and I'm gonna take KC minus three and a half because I think if they get up seven the game's over yeah I'm taking to take KC minus 3.5, because I think if they get up 7, the game's over.

Yeah, I'm taking Houston. I just can't. The half point is the big decider. I think that I would be thinking very differently about this if it was 2.5 or 3, but that half point, I'm completely unwilling to lay it. So the playoff manifesto, which I kept writing over and over again from 1997 to 2015. It started with 10 entries and ended up with...

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Kept working on it, kept working on it. One of the rules is don't really look at the spread. Just pick who you're going to win, who you think is going to win. Don't try to get cute, because just pretend your life is on the game. And if your life's on the game,

you're going to be murdered if you have the wrong choice and just throw the line out completely who are you taking you're taking kc right i am so the only reason you're taking houston is because of that extra half point that's true that's not a good reason to put your life on the line is my point i'm not saying you're right or you're wrong i just i don't you have brian hoyer who's one hit away from Brandon Whedon. You have no playmakers other than Hopkins, who the Chiefs can take out. I just feel like you'd be really worried about your life around midway through the second quarter.

I would hate my life if it came down to the outcome of this game. Let's just be honest. So here's the case against the Chiefs. It looks too easy. Terrible postseason history. Their fans will go into, we're expecting the worst mode as soon as something goes wrong. And this just feels like a typical classic Andy Reid game, which, you know, last week with Fitzpatrick in that do or die Jets game.

And the case against the Jets was Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't had one of those games where he just rams it up your butt when you're least expecting it. The rammer. And they're driving downfield, and it's gray, and they're about to take the lead, and then boom, three interceptions in ten minutes. It's not my fault that you, and by extension Sal, didn't loop me in on the discussion of whether or not to put the Jets into anything. I had the Bills. I love the Bills.

I put them in the ESPN thing. If we had been rolling last week, I would have told you, be careful with the Jets. The rammer is out there. The rammer. He had a telephone jets the rammer is out there the ram the rammer he had a telephone pole he rammed right up there uh so yeah so that the chiefs are remind me of that but i just don't think houston's good that's really what it comes down to i don't think this is a situation you know sometimes you can talk yourself into some of these teams but like

here they their wins. They've won nine games, right? I was just going to say, who's the best team they beat in the last eight weeks? Because that's really what we're looking at. Yeah, I'm going to go through their wins for you, and you tell me if you feel good about taking that three and a half. They beat the Bucs in week three. Congratulations. They beat the Jaguars in week six.

They beat the Titans in week seven. They beat the Bengals in that weird Monday night game when everybody was too excited about the Bengals and they just crapped the bed. So that's a good win. That was a really strange game, and I'm not entirely sure what happened in that game. I remember being acutely—my feelings were hurt because I was ready to invest in Cincinnati and there were a bunch of trends against Cincinnati and I said, you know what, I'm not going with the trends. This is one where I'm just going with

what my eyes tell me. My eyes suck. Yep. Next week they beat the Jets 24-17. Those are two, that's a back-to-back, two legit wins. Not bad. They beat the Jets at home. They were getting four points that game. They beat the Saints.

They got killed by, oh, I'm sorry, they lost to the Bills, then they got killed by the Pats. Last three weeks, they beat the Colts and broken down Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst

might have even been involved in that game. They killed the Titans, who are the worst team in the league, who have the number one pick, and they killed the Titans, who are the worst team in the league, who have the number one pick. And they killed the Jaguars in a meaningless week 17 game when they basically already clinched the AFC South. So those are all of their wins.

Two good ones. Two good ones. Yeah. Yeah. Well, look, House, I'm glad we disagree this early, but God damn, I'm taking Andy Reid. I can't believe it.

You are. I can't wait to text you tomorrow. I can't. I can't take Houston. I can't take Power. Andy Reid. I can't take Hoyer. You're taking Hoyer.

I'm not talking myself. It's why I trotted out all those technical angles. There isn't anything about Houston, the football team, that I like. I just like the situation slightly better. All right. Well, it's good for the Patriots if— The best case scenario for the Patriots is if Casey wins this game and then Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh

because then the Patriots would have Cincinnati in round two. Casey would go to Denver, and I think that's a nightmare for Denver if Casey goes to Denver. Sure. At that point, you're just banking on Andy Reid. All right, second game. Pittsburgh at Cincy. Saturday night, a perennially strange game.

Usually weirdness happens on Saturday night. Most famously, I think that was the Tebow overtime touchdown, which as the years pass is bordering on becoming the most incredible play in the history of the NFL. Considering Tim Tebow threw an overtime, the new rules started that year. Tim Tebow throws an 80 yard overtime touchdown pass to win a playoff game. That happened.

That happened in our lifetime. A single moment. That's a legacy moment for a guy that 32 football teams have determined can't have a career in this league. A legacy moment. I had the Denver Moneyline. I had them against the spread. Listen, I believe in Tim Tebow. You can't tell me he's worse than some of the dudes we watched the last three to four weeks.

It's just unbelievable to me that he can't play. But Charlie Whitehurst, all these dudes, like Josh Freeman gets exhumed from his graveyard. He gets to play. Where's Tim Tebow? He must not want to play. There's something... We should be investigating this. There's something

going on there, right? Yeah, feels like it. So Pittsburgh at Cincy. Tomlin versus Marvin Lewis. Tomlin always scares me to have money on him because he does weird stuff. We've talked about this before, but he's the guy who hits on 18

in blackjack for no reason and he's just laughing and he's having mixed drinks and it's fun to be at his table, but at the same time, he's screwing up the cards and you're kind of annoyed by him. But you don't want to leave the table either

because he's fun. And then Marvin Lewis, who just can't win in the playoffs. Has no playoff wins. Zero. Another one. Another immovable object versus an unstoppable force game to me. You have A.J. McCarron going against Ben Roethlisberger. And on paper, playoff manifesto, looking at the quarterbacks, is like number one.

So basically, you take Cincinnati, you're betting against Ben Roethlisberger, and you have money on A.J. McCarron, who wasn't playing until six weeks ago, career backup, and that's your choice. Doesn't seem like a great choice. It does not seem like a great choice. And yet I'm prepared to do it. Since he has seven straight non-covers in the playoffs, they have not won a playoff game since 1990.

They have one wild card win ever. Roethlisberger, 10-5 straight up in the playoffs, 9-6 versus the spread. Great passing attack with Pittsburgh. I'm scared of all of their receivers. Antonio Brown will be the best player in the game since he's got McCarron, who has not thrown for over 200 yards yet

in any of these starts, right? Yeah, he has not topped 200 yards in any start. Running backs are fine. A.J. Green's great. Eifert's back, which is good. They're home. It's going to be cold. And normally I would say I'm just taking the better quarterback.

There's an X factor. There's two X factors, actually. One is that D'Angelo Williams is wearing a walking boot. That seems like a problem. That's a factor. A factor with a big X mark on it. Right. Their offense is basically, we have great receivers.

We're spreading them out. We're going to put one running back back there. And you have to worry about the running back because he's actually pretty good. That's the kind of offense that the Patriots have a lot of trouble shutting down. In Pittsburgh's case, you have now removed the running back who's pretty good, who's above average, who isn't as dangerous as Le'Veon Bell was, but was good, was cranking out four or five yards a pop. Now you're putting in dudes I've never heard of who aren't good.

And, you know, there's a tipping point. Like, you mean Fitzgerald, Pierre, Gary, Trudeau, Toussaint? Yeah. Those guys aren't coming back to haunt you in any capacity. And the Patriots had the same thing happen when they lost Deion Lewis. When you have really ordinary, mediocre running backs, it cripples your offense. Because now when those guys are in there, the defense isn't worried about them. When Deion Lewis was in there, he could run the ball.

He could catch the ball out of the backfield. The defense had to worry about him. And that opened up other parts of the field. But with these guys, no. So now since he's going to this game thinking, we just got to shut down their receivers and we're going to win. And Baltimore did that in week 16. They did that weird zone defense on him.

Took away all the long plays. Pittsburgh had 17 points. So can that happen again, House? I think so. I like Cincinnati's defense quite a bit. Over the course of the season, we have a very nice sample out of them. They are a markedly better defense than Pittsburgh's defense. And all the factors of the past history with Cincinnati are unnerving. And yet, I like Cincinnati.

They're the team with the better record getting points at home. It's crazy. Which just feels like in your playoff manifesto, isn't that in the top five of rules to pay attention to, things to pay attention to? Yeah, it's the quarterback would be the reason to be afraid, as well as the history. But you were afraid of Casey's history, and you're not afraid of Cincy's history, which makes you a giant hypocrite.

No, no, I am afraid of Cincy's history. I hate Cincy's history. But I have been impressed by the body of work over the course of the season. The difference between ignoring the Cincy history in this instance and sort of honoring the history of the Chiefs is the body of work for Cincinnati over the course of this season. I feel like there's a regression moment here. They're ready to flip the script. So the Chiefs, I forgot to mention, were fifth in DVOA this season. Sixth offense, sixth defense, seventh special teams.

That's really good. They're weighted DVOA, which is a really good stack because it values like how the team is doing relatively recently right what the uptick is they're second in the league behind seattle um so they're peaking at the right time yeah houston was 18th in dvoa um 32nd ranked special teams which i love bad special team going against bad special teams in the playoffs because it's like it's almost like if you have a sore on your knee and the playoffs are just it's the most likely place to just have that scab ripped off if you just don't you don't want to go into the playoffs with bad special teams, which they have. And they have the 24th offense by DVOA.

So two of the three things they do are awful. So if you're picking Houston, you're basically saying the defense is winning this game. It's going to be a 13-10 game. And Houston's winning it. They're getting turnovers. Again, I don't feel good about that. With Cincy – the reason I'm bringing this up, Cincy Pittsburgh. Cincy's second in DVOA for the season behind Seattle,

which I didn't realize. That's the body of work. Yeah. Pittsburgh was seventh. Way to DVOA. Pittsburgh was slightly better. It said Pittsburgh's D was 11th for the season in DVOA, but when I watch them,

for some reason I watch more Pittsburgh games than usual, it just seems like you could move the ball on them. You know why? Because you could move the ball on them. You could. They get turnovers. They're super opportunistic. Barnwell's great kryptonite column from this week.

Yeah, that was excellent. If they don't create a turnover, they're very susceptible. They're very vulnerable. Right. You could say that about, you know, turnovers help every defense. But my thing with Pittsburgh is you can just put 12-play ADR drives on them anytime you want unless they're getting a thing. It just seems really easy to move the ball over and over again down the field.

Baltimore was doing it, for God's sakes. So with Cincy, I don't think McCarron's bad. You know, did you watch the Cincy Denver game, which was pretty excruciating for the most part? He's pretty good. I did. I watched the entire thing. First half of that game, Denver's defense, you know, they're going all out. McCarron, I like the way he handled himself. He's not perfect, but I don't think he's a disaster. I just don't think he's going to be cowed. He's not going to be afraid of the moment, which seems to be a little bit of a characteristic that I think we could fairly

attribute to Dalton. Just not up to the moment in those playoff games. The recurrence of it started to feel like a characteristic. I like the clean slate of McCarron. Yeah. So the Steelers, they beat the Niners, beat the Rams, lost to the Ravens in OT, beat the Chargers, beat the Cards. The Cards is their best win.

Plus six favorites at home. Was that the Landry Jones game? Yeah, beat the Cards. The Cards is their best win. Plus six favorites at home. Was that the Landry Jones game? Yeah, I think it was. Roethlisberger got hurt and then Landry Jones came in. Oh, amazing. That's great. Week nine, beat the Raiders. Week 10, Browns.

Week 13, Colts. They beat the Bengals in week 14, but that was the game that Dalton broke his thumb, right? Yes. Beat the Broncos. To beat the Broncos at home, Brock Osweiler beat the Browns. It's not, I can't say that's the most inspiring slate of wins. They're good, though.

I mean, nobody would be surprised if they went on a run here and were in the Super Bowl again. I wouldn't be shocked. You just made the case against them. Because people think they're better than they are, I think. Including myself. I was like, I don't want to play the Steelers. Oh, Pat's got to avoid the Steelers. I'm terrified of those receivers.

I was like, why am I afraid of the Steelers? Because they got good receivers? Great. It's going to be zero degrees in Cincinnati. How many yards are they going to throw for? I don't know. I like Cincy. I like getting the points.

I think either team could win. I feel like you're getting three free points in this game. And I think Cincy could win. That's my rationale. I like Cincinnati under these circumstances as well. You know what I don't like? In a freezing game where the road team has no running game whatsoever. I don't like that.

Yeah, it's Pierre Fitzgerald Trudeau Toussaint. Is that his name? Now, I don't feel as confident about this one as I do about Casey, only because this is a game that Big Ben could just win by himself.

It is. You know, one thing we haven't mentioned also, it's Pittsburgh's third straight road game. And there's a bunch of angles that run against teams in that situation, too. So, worst case scenario for each team. Since he blows this game, I think Marvin Lewis is gone. Right? Wow.

Why? How many playoff games can you lose? Is he going to lose 20 before he gets fired? Like at some point you got to move on. They should be able to win this game. I don't know. They've had a pretty impressive run of success. It feels like a change for change's sake.

There's no core sickness, core infirmity with the Bengals Red Rifle's untimely injury I have one more point for you in this game go ahead it's really hard to beat

the same team twice on the road that is a rival that is a good team. I think the Patriots could go into Houston and beat them again. Nobody would be surprised by that. I'm so glad you made this point. Going into Cincy and beating them twice in the same season within five weeks of each other feels far-fetched to me. Let me give you a nice little angle from my good buddy, Big Al, BigAlMcMorney.com.

NFL teams are a perfect, let me repeat that, perfect 10-0 against the spread in the playoffs, against division rivals, if they're coming off of a point spread defeat and playing with revenge from a loss in which they gave up 28 or greater points. Pittsburgh beat the Bengals 33 to 24 weeks ago, five weeks ago. Yeah. And the Bengals just failed to cover. I'm taking Cincy. I don't feel awesome about it, but I feel good about it.

I think it's a nice little slight contrary play. I think most people like Pittsburgh. I think most people are thinking about Pittsburgh versus Denver round two already. A.J. McCarron is kind of the red herring for people in this game. And I don't—here's the thing. Was Andy Dalton great in any playoff games? Is Andy Dalton even that good? Well, this is the thing, right? I like McCarron as a fresh face here.

Yeah. All right, before we get to the— Oh, one last thing on this Saturday. This is my other prediction because I'm doing Cincy Casey. The narrative of the day is people throwing out their baggage. Cincy finally gets a win. Casey finally gets a win.

Andy Reid on the road. It's just... I like it. It's the baggage shedding day on Saturday. See, the baggage shedding doesn't even hurt my Houston pick because Kansas City can win. I just don't think they're going to cover the three and a half. All right. I want to talk about our buddies at Squarespace.

Oh, good friends of ours. They build fantastic websites for normal people. We're relatively normal people. Yeah, I'm normal to slightly under. I look at our friend Cousin Sal, who went 13-4 in his best bets on SportsCenter, who made playoff bets this week on SportsCenter, and very hard to find his picks online. If he had a Squarespace site, I'd just go to his Squarespace site

and find out who he picked. He's too lazy to do that. You're not as lazy. I'm making you do a Squarespace site. You haven't done it yet, right? I have not done one yet, no. We've talked about it off and on over the course of the season here. I'm ready to do it.

All right, you're going to do it over the weekend, and you're going to put it up on Twitter and tell people where it is. I'm going to do it. You're going to do it. You almost had a perfect weekend picking games last month. You had a chance to go 16-0 heading into the late Sunday games in week 16, which had never happened in our picks.

11-0 heading into the afternoon. And yet I can't find your picks unless I'm looking at them on Twitter or listening to them on this podcast. But I think you should build a website for your picks using Squarespace. So you're going to do that. I'm going to do it. Next Friday on this podcast, we're going to say what the URL is.

Squarespace makes it easy to build beautiful websites regardless of skill level. No coding needed. Easy to use tools. State of the art technology. You get 24-7 online support. A beautiful website for only $8 a month. It's a really nice site. You should go check it out. You even get a free domain

if you buy Squarespace for the year. So why wait? Start your trial. No credit card required. Go to squarespace.com. Use the offer code BS for 10% off your first purchase. All right, Sunday's games. Sunday's games.

Is your team first? No. Okay. We're the late game. All of America wants to see. Yeah, you like that. The Beastie Grudens. Seattle at Minnesota.

It's going to be the coldest game in the history of the NFL. Is that true? That's what they're saying. In the history of the NFL? In the history of the NFL, there's never been a colder game. Seattle minus five and a half now against Minnesota. Everyone in the world wants

this line to be three so we can take Seattle and Vegas is just like, no, we're putting it here. Putting it here, we dare you to take Minnesota. Oh, minus five isn't good enough? Or plus five? We're going to bump it up to five and a half. This game will be six by game time.

That's America. America's doing that. Yeah, America's doing it. Vegas is just like, oh, we want equal action on both sides. Five's not going to do it. What about five and a half? Nope. That's the Seattle money still coming in.

Damn it. Let's go to six. They're just dying for us to take Minnesota. They're begging us. Now it's at six points. It was six point road, or home underdog. And I still like Seattle. Oh, that's so funny.

I'm taking Minnesota. I can't do it. Begging to begging? I'm going to do it. I can't do it. I can't take a team just because of the spread. I just can't. So make your case for Minnesota.

Well, first of all, the weather thing is a factor I like. I have seen a bunch of evidence out there about the increased turnovers that occur in these cold weather games. And I think that slightly favors the team who's playing the ball control game. Now, it is kind of crazy to be talking about Seattle as a run-and-gun, wheel-and-deal offense, but that's exactly what they've been over the last five weeks. Russell Wilson has been spectacular, and they've been running a pretty traditional passing offense for the first time in Russell Wilson's career. Hey, he's pretty good at it, it looks like. But I like the Vikings with the ball control kind of offense

they have been perpetrating all year. A mistake, you know, not mistake immune, but an offense intended to minimize the mistakes. And if I'm looking at this game from the perspective of the running backs, right, I'm not looking at which quarterback is more likely to have success. I like AAP up against the, you know, just returning Marshawn. All fair points. And when it's that cold, I almost just want to gravitate toward the home team

because I feel like the road team's just bummed out just in general. But here's my counter. I have a couple counters for you. I think Seattle's one of the four best teams in the league. I love the way they're playing, and they're healthy. I like teams that are healthy going in and out. The whole defense is healthy. Yeah, they have 11 healthy guys now on defense.

Like that. Just, you know, they lost Jimmy Graham, but the left tackle's back, Okung, Okung, Okung. They're just good. You know, the counter is what happened to them in week 16 against the Rams. Aren't the Vikings similar to the Rams? Don't they have the same type of team, swarming defense, run game? But in the playoffs, like, if you're Seattle,

aren't you just taking out Peterson? Just moving Cam Chancellor up? Please, beat us Teddy Bridgewater. Go ahead. Go ahead. Take it. If we're losing in the playoffs, it's going to be because Teddy Bridgewater throws for 350 yards in minus 7 degree weather. I don't see it.

What happens if the Vikings are behind? What if they're down 7-3? They're going to run the ball and run the ball and run the ball and run the ball. Yeah, but you can stop that in the playoffs.

If it's a case of just I'm taking away what the other team does well in a football playoff game, which happens over and over again, this seems like it's the easiest thing to take away. Running backs are notoriously up and down in the playoffs.

I mean, you never win in the playoffs over and over again because you're a running back. You win because you're a quarterback. You can take out a running back. You can take out running backs in the playoffs now. Okay. I mean, Seattle, well, Seattle's, you know, the evidence to the contrary. I think it's fair to argue that Marshawn Lynch was a crucial element of last year's run.

Yeah, but they had Russell Wilson. I know. That's the difference. That's a good counter, by the way, to the argument about, you know, making this a running back against running back thing. Russell Wilson's ability to scramble is unparalleled at the moment and is the reason to feel comfortable about laying the points. I feel like it's just too many points. I would be fine if it was

two and a half or three Seattle favorites. I'm just not laying five and a half or six. Not doing it. I'm probably going to Moneyline Parlay KC and Seattle to wipe out the Lions for those games because I think both of them are going to win and they're just better. The other thing, Beastmoan's back for this game. Beastmoan's back.

And he's been, did you see how lean he is? He looks good. He's been doing some MMA training. Yeah, I've talked myself into Seattle. I really want to take Minnesota in this game. And I just don't trust Bridgewater. And every time I've kind of gotten behind them, I've watched the game and been kicking myself

because I just think they're pretty limited on the offense. And I don't trust Patterson. I mean, what are the odds of Patterson putting the ball on the ground on a special teams play in this game? I'm going to say 100%. It's a little unnerving. Yeah. So, anyway, this is my It's a little unnerving. Yeah. So, anyway, this is my gift to the Viking fans because I like Seattle.

A couple angles that support the Vikings teams playing with revenge in a loss where they gave up 28 points or more, 55 and 37 against the spread. That's a nice angle. But 5-0 as a home underdog. In this instance, the Vikings are a home underdog. I like 5-37 against the spread. That's a nice angle. But 5-0 as a home underdog. In this instance, the Vikings are a home underdog. I like 5-0. You know who else is 5-0, by the way? Russell Wilson in the playoffs as a favorite.

Go ahead. Look, it's nice. There's a lot of contrary stuff out there. And Seattle is 4-straight wildcard wins. Last 10 games, Vikings 9-1 against the spread as an underdog. Seattle is 4-straight wildcard wins. The other one I like, though, is home underdogs off back-to-back wins, 26-5 in non-division games since 1980. If they're coming in with a better record than their opponent,

that happens to be the case here between the Vikings and the Seahawks. In the playoffs, those teams are 7-1 against the spread. I just like the spread. I just like the spread. I like the 5.5. I like the 6. I think it's going to be an even game. It might be 10-7, 10-6 this game. Well, and that's where I

was leaning for a lot of the week, where it's just like it's going to be freezing cold and these teams are going to score 17 points combined and whatever. But I actually think... I don't know. I just don't want to score 17 points combined and whatever. But I actually think, I don't know. I just don't want to take Teddy Bridgewater and Minnesota's offense in this game. And the fact that Peterson's a little banged up

and he's had back issues and he missed a practice and he had a lot of miles put on him this year. He's 31 years old. It's freezing cold. The camp chancellor's just, you know he's going to come up as like the eighth guy on the line. Yeah. And you know he's going to come up as like the eighth guy on the line. Yeah. And you know they're just going to try to beat the shit out of him

for four quarters. I don't feel bad about you know, Seattle winning and kicking the Vikings ass. I just am not prepared to give the points, That's all. Here's your worst-case scenario for this game.

It's 10-0 Seattle. Bridgewater's just throwing a pick. And now they're showing Adrian Peterson gingerly walking to the locker room. Let's go down to Pam Oliver. Pam, what's going on with Adrian? His back is bothering me, and he took a hard hit from Cam Chancellor, and he is questionable to return, guys. Toby Gerhardt's going to be in there. Not Toby Gerhardt. Who's their backup now?

Whoever it is. That's your nightmare scenario, right? At that point, you're like, oh, this game's going to be a 31-3 final. And that might happen. That would be the worst case scenario. So, remember watching Cincinnati and San Diego when we were kids? Yeah.

In 1980? Yep. And it was like freezing cold. But when it was freezing cold in 1980, it was like your life was in danger. You're like in that Everest movie. They had none of the shit they have now. They had none of the clothes they have now. They had none of the fancy heaters on the sidelines.

The heaters on the sidelines heaters on the sideline they're playing coats yeah they're playing on artificial turf which back in the 70s and 80s artificial turf was basically they put the field over concrete and then just laid over this piece of turf over it it's astonishing that more guys weren't weren't hurt you know in in those moments oh i think they were i don't think anyone who played in that game was ever the same. I think all of them were ruined for life in some capacity. I think it took like five years of their playing careers. With all the concussion stuff, I'm not even making a joke about that. Well, no, seriously.

I'm saying about just like the physical abuse that their shoulders, their backs, their knees, their legs, all that stuff, just playing on a frozen concrete field for four periods, quarters. Ludicrous. And now it's like, all right, it's freezing, but I'm wearing, I have all these weird little warmer things and I have the heaters and I'm doing this and the field's frozen, but it's not frozen in a way that my life's in danger on every play.

I don't know. I was just thinking about that San Diego Cincy game would be a good documentary. Oh. Because San Diego was like the Steve Nash sons, basically, of that era. Sure. And probably should have won a Super Bowl at some point in there. Just the way they play there're so unique and so innovative. They're a critically acclaimed team, which is a fun phrase.

That's like the Suns end up just, they never won a title, but they were critically acclaimed. San Diego's like that. And they end up in the worst possible situation for the exact team that they were. They're in cold weather, the coldest weather ever. They're on the east coast They don't get to play their west coast offense

They can't throw Everybody's freezing And all of a sudden their season's over Anyway I'm not as worried about Seattle with that It's fun that you work at a place Where you're allowed to do documentaries Good point, House

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Yeah. And it was awesome. It looked great. Was it a Romo jersey? Oh, yeah. Of course. What are they, a frame of Whedon jersey for them? Of course it was a Romo jersey. They framed the Obama GQ thing that I did for me, and it looked awesome.

And I was waiting until after the holidays to do this, but they told me they would frame some stuff for me, and I'm going to send them like 20 posters. I want some stuff framed. I'd love this. Maybe they'll frame it. It's really reasonably priced. I had no idea. You know what's funny about framing stores, though?

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more efficiency. We're putting them out of business. Go Framebridge. All right. Speaking of mom and pop pops out of business, but, you know, more efficiency. We're putting them out of business. Go Framebridge. All right. Speaking of mom and pop and speaking of home, home cooking. Your team, you like that? I'm so beside myself.

Yeah, I've calmed down a little bit since two weeks ago. You don't like that as much? I was all, if we had rolled, if we had Friday rolled, you know, right before New Year, you would have heard me. There would have been songs sung. There would have been all kinds of stuff. The Eagles were so bad. It's astonishing how bad they were. And that was the live embodiment of a team quitting on its coach.

We got to watch it in all its glory on national TV. I loved it. And the fact that it featured my home team for once. I mean, the locals here, the D.C. Grudens, make it to the playoffs like once every election cycle. Yeah. So you have to savor these moments. You have to, you these moments. You have to really

enjoy it. Take a long gulp of what they're putting out there. And it just so happens that this team is so likable. Kirk Cousins is the most likable guy. The story this week about him taking in Foster Dog. He's on the podium in a starter jacket.

He's the guy that Gruden wanted from the moment that Gruden arrived here two years ago. And it's finally come to pass, and everybody's being validated and vindicated. It's such a rare moment of success for the Washington professional football team. I can't wait to play this next Friday after you lose by 14. We're just going to play it and listen to it. We'll do a director's commentary. Oh, there are so many bad trends and bad angles against Washington

in this game. You know who I'm happy for even more than Kirk Cousins? Who that? Daniel Snyder. That guy deserves it, man. How dare you? That guy deserves it. How dare you? He deserves it. It's infuriating. All he does is he's done right with the Redskins fans for years and years and years and years. And it's just to see him get rewarded like this, it really warms my heart.

I probably shouldn't say this. I'm actually going to attend the game this Sunday. Why wouldn't you say that? Well, that part I'm willing to say. There's no problem with that part. There's other parts you can't say. Here's, that part I'm willing to say. There's no problem with that part. There's other parts you can't say. Here's the part that I probably shouldn't say. I'm lucky enough to find myself in a situation where I'm probably going to be in a box.

And I emailed a couple of buddies of mine, another couple of diehards, that no matter what the outcome of sunday's game um if my path were to cross with um mr snyder's i would definitely take the occasion to help to tell him that i hate his guts i mean you know i i 20 years of my life, 15 years of my life of ineptitude, franchise dysfunction, I can barely speak. The most demoralizing, cynical kind of behavior perpetrated against a faithful fan base here. I just can't, you know. Someday I'll make a piece with it. Maybe if they rip off this, this right now is the beginning of the Kirk Cousins decade coming up here. Maybe

I'll get over all of the hurt feelings that I have for the franchise, but you know, I haven't been to a game. I hate going out there. The stadium stinks. It's hard to get to. It's hard to get out of being, you know, I've've been and there hasn't been any reason to go. So I thought when you were setting up that run into Dan Snyder thing, I thought it was going to be like a Homeland season one Brody. If he gets if he's able to get in the White House, he's going to take out the president. I'm scared for a second. I told my friends I would absolutely jab him with a hypodermic needle.

No, I'm glad you would just tell him you hate his guts, but everything you just said made me even more worried for your Washington professional football team.

Oh, I know. You just unironically said the words the Kirk Cousins decade. It's possible. I like that. The Kirk Cousins decade. Come's possible. I like that. The Kirk Cousins decade.

Come on. He's only 27. Yeah. What a decade it'll be. Him and Jake Rudin? Well, you know, we sucked our fundamentals, got our game plan. You know, the guys really did a great job. Everybody chipped in.

Everybody's doing what they're supposed to do. Just do your job. Everybody's doing their job. So, Kirk Cousins is, since you like That game, according to our friend Bill Barnwell, 23 TDs and three picks. I said that stat on Monday, but I'm saying it again. The Redskins, six straight wins as home favorites in the playoffs. Six and two all-time in the wildcard round.

It's nice. Green Bay, no playoff road wins since 2010. Lifetime, two and seven versus the NFC East in the playoffs. But throw all that away. Throw all the numbers away. Green Bay just looks like something's wrong with them.

And usually when your reasons for thinking it's going to turn around in the playoffs, you're just like, well, that's Aaron Rodgers. He's good. It reminds me a little of Pittsburgh in the year they lost to T-Bone, round one, when I think they were laying like eight or nine or ten points or whatever, but they didn't look good and Roethlisberger was banged up. And everybody was like, no, no, it's Roethlisberger.

He'll be fine, and they just assumed he would be fine. I've watched a lot of Green Bay games because it seems like they're either on at night or they're always the late game or it's like the exclusive game, and we've talked about this. Oh, I went Phil Simms. I'm sorry. Joe, we've talked about this. His guys are never open.

They're never, ever, ever open. Everybody's been talking about that for 10 weeks now. I know. The Jordy Nelson thing, when Jordy Nelson got hurt, I was like, oh, that's a tough one. They'll figure it out. It'll be fine. It's not fine. It killed their team.

And the only time they ever seem to get big plays is either he throws it to James Jones, who's open by an inch, but the pass is so perfect, you know, it's caught. Or nobody's open. Rodgers almost gets sacked. He rolls around, scrambles, buys seven more seconds, and somebody cuts off whatever their route was and finds a seam, and then they could put it that way. I don't like anything I see from them. The Hail Mary is their best play. Yeah. I mean, their best play is heaving the ball downfield

and praying for pass interference. Yeah, so they finished 10-6, and one of those wins was the Hail Mary. They lost their last two weeks of the season. Their last three wins were the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders. Not impressive. Their defense has not been the same since Sam Shields took a hike and got hurt. And I don't know.

I always try to think about what is the narrative going to be after the game, assuming I think it goes the way it's going to go. For me, this feels like they lose, and the two narratives are Redskins, Kirk Cousins, things are looking up. It's never finally the Redskins fans have blah, blah, blah. That's one narrative. And then the other narrative is Mike McCarthy, time to go. Yeah, I mean, the D.C. Grudens

really are the feel-good team at the moment, aren't they? Seems like it, which isn't a good thing. By the way, people always... I get emails sometimes from people who say they hate when I slurp, or I'm spitting in the microphone, or whatever I'm doing. I'm actually

drinking a Covita sparkling probiotic drink that is not a sponsored ad. That's not a sponsored ad? And I think the microphone picks, so I'm going to do it right now. Listen. That's the drink. That's just me being a bad host. That's just me not moving far away enough from

my microphone. So when you insult me about the weird noises during the podcast, it's not me being like some some gross person who can't stop making mouth noises i'm just being inconsiderate so if you if you're gonna if you're gonna insult me in emails about the weird noises in the background just insult me for being an inconsiderate host don't say i'm like a weird person weird noises yeah and for the price, you got to, you know. Yeah, it's a free package. People should be willing to indulge. Cost you nothing.

Cost you nothing. So Washington is favored by a point, but it's a pick-em, and then Green Bay was favored at one point, and it just seems like it's floating between one and one. Yeah. And I think it's going to end up, my prediction, we're taping this on a Friday morning West Coast time, I think it's going to end up Washington by one and a half.

Oh, that's funny. I thought it was going to end up Green Bay. I thought the money was going to slide in late for Green Bay. I think everybody, first of all, I think Washington's pretty good. I've been saying that to you for a couple weeks, and you kind of deep down knew they were pretty good, but you didn't want to commit to it. I wasn't going to jinx the over.

I had the over bet on win totals this season. And I wrote an email at the beginning of the season saying I thought they were a little bit improved and that they were going to get over the 6.5. So here are your wins. You beat the Rams. Congratulations on that one. You beat the Rams in Week 2.

You can say that for every win, by the way, but go ahead. You beat the Eagles. Congrats. You beat the Eagles. Congrats. You beat the Bucks by one. Oh, congratulations. You killed the Saints. You beat the Giants. And then the last four, you won four in a row, Bears, Bills.

But the Bills was a good win because that kind of knocked the Bills out. Eagles floundering and then the Cowboys. What was amazing, and Sal and I talked about this the other day, you were only favored three times in 16 games. Here's a characteristic about the list of teams you just read. Not one of them had a winning record. Right. But would you say the Packers are better than any of those teams?

The whole thing is, you know. It's a congratulations season. But that's what you get when you only win seven games, when you go 7-25 the two previous seasons. Right. And the answer is no. I heard the question you just asked. The Packers' most impressive wins all came in the first six games when the identity of the team, for whatever reason,

is radically different than the identity of the team, for whatever reason, is radically different than the identity of the team at the moment. We didn't do DVOA for NFC yet. Seattle was number one in DVOA, and their way to DVOA was 51.1%, which means nothing and is impossible to explain. But trust me, that's like really good. That's about as good as you're going to do heading into the playoffs. Minnesota was 11th

uh in dvo for the year and 10th overall seattle had the second offense the fourth defense and the third special teams and lockett was um it just feels like lockett's gonna be a playoff guy don't you think certain guys we just see like that guy's going to be a fucking bitch in the playoffs. Minnesota, 16th offense, 14th defense. Seattle's just better. So congratulations on taking the points there. But then Washington is 15th DVOA. Green Bay was 10th.

But Washington weighted DVOA was 12th, and Green Bay was 19th. Oh, I'm surprised. Yeah. I didn't think the stats were going to love Washington this year. Yeah, they were a top 12 team in the weighted, which is what we care about. And Green Bay was 19th. And that actually reflects what I watched.

It felt like Green Bay got worse as the year went along. And I think Rodgers knows it. He knows it. I think Rodgers partly is deep down. He'd never admit this. And I don't even think he knows this. He knows he's not winning the Super Bowl with this team. Not this year.

I don't think he's going into this going, guys, we're going to get hot. We're going to win four straight. We're definitely going to win three on the road. Sometimes you know when you have a shitty team. No, they ended week 17 with him saying, well, I'm not sure how we're going to right the ship, but we have to figure out a way. Yeah, he knows.

Put it this way. I bet he has a Sundance hotel room on hold. He's like, when Sundance... He is a player. He is a baller. Yeah, he's like, we're probably not going to still be in the playoffs at that point. Can you reserve that Sundance hotel room for me? Yeah, I think this is all the makings of one of the great random sports days of your life. Oh, please.

Culminating with you telling Snyder you hate his guts in the elevator. That could be a culmination. Or a really, really emotionally scarring, terrible day where the cousin's era falls apart. You lose. You're stuck getting out of there for three and a half hours. You're not home till 1130 and you just, you hate everything. It can't be any worse than the way that Washington lost to Seattle in 2012. I mean, that was the last great moment for RG3, the first half of that game. Never to be heard from again, Robert Griffin III. Well, I really like Washington in this game. The two games I really like are...

I like the Chiefs and I like Washington. I only like one game this week, and it's Washington. I'm going to bet on Washington. I'm going to bet on a Chiefs-Seahawks money line parlay. I like that. I don't fault any of it. I'm not going to bet on any of it because I don't love any of these games, and I don't want to double down on the heartbreak for the D.C. Grudens.

But I'm really excited to go to this game and to root for this team and to revel in a playoff moment with 80,000 of my DMV peeps. I have a wager on the Patriots to win the AFC at plus 175. Oh. Am I in on that one? You can be. It's not too late. It's not too late.

Here's my reasoning. If Cincy wins and KC wins, KC goes to Denver round two. I think KC beats Denver. And I think we beat Cincinnati. And I think everyone's sleeping on the Pats because they played possum the last couple weeks. When Edelman and Amadola are back in there with Gronk, it's a

team that scores 35 points a game. That's what they do when they have everybody back. What's the status today? Friday, January? All those guys are back. They're all practicing on Monday. The team's back. It's fine. They just wanted to get to round two. They were doing everything possible to try to not get guys injured

and to be careful. They just didn't care. They didn't care if they were the one seed or the two seed. It was a bizarre last two games of the season. Yeah, and now Manning is in there for Denver, which is incredible to me. It's incredible. It's incredible. What a panic move by Kubiak.

I can't believe he did that. I'm not sure you can call it a panic move, though. I just did. I just called it a panic move. I'm going to say it again. It was a panic move. The guy's resume of playoff experience... He's our age.

It's slightly better, though though than Osweiler. He had nine touchdowns and 17 turnovers. That was early in the season. He got healthy. He was able to rest over the last several weeks. Osweiler,

and maybe, maybe there's audible stuff going on that we don't know, but man, I just, Osweiler as a Patriot fan scared me more than Peyton Manning did. I mean, maybe his wife

got a couple shipments in the last six weeks. Oh, come on. Stop it. She's got shipments from Blue Apron. Healthy food. Those are wonderful shipments. Healthy food.

She probably loves the healthy food at Blue Apron. Yeah, chicken parm tastes really good in the Manning house lately. I'm not going to think until next week. So anyway, I think if it breaks this way where it's Casey at Denver and then Cincy at New England, then there's a chance the Pats could have Casey in round three.

I don't like plus 175. I'd like that better if it was like plus 250. Well, they're going to be favored in round two. So it's basically just a parlay of round two, round three. You can go against it. But what is your Super Bowl pick? Because I have all the matchup odds.

Oh, that's interesting. And I'll tell you what I did. The cuz and I did cards and bats plus 700. Yeah, what do I have to do to get in on that? Who do I have to talk to? You already did it. Where was my vote?

Well, you can be in it. I mean, I'm Friday rolling. All we do once a week is talk about NFL wagers and angles and things of interest, items of interest. I'd like to do that. That, honest to goodness, is my Super Bowl pick. Cards and Pats, plus 700. Yeah.

I fear Seattle on the road, because they played on the road last week, they're on the road this week, they're going to be on the road again next week. I think at some point that runs out, and I think where it runs out, it potentially is in Arizona two weeks from now. Cards and Chiefs is plus 2,500 in case you were wondering.

I know you were wondering about that one. Last thing while I have you on the phone. Please. We have to talk NBA for five minutes. Okay. People like our NBA.ba so basically to recap our playoff picks you like houston plus three and a half i like the chiefs minus three and a half we both like cincy plus three we both like washington minus one pick them plus one wherever

it ends up and you like the points in minnesota i'm taking the points as long as it goes up to seven. I mean, I'm laying the points as long as it goes up to seven. Over seven, you wouldn't do it. Wouldn't do it. So I'd like to apologize to you. Oh. I have an apology for you. Thank you.

2016 is about cleaning a slate, new beginnings, new starts, admitting your faults. I like it. I apologize for talking you out of the Kawhi Leonard MVP bet at 50-1. I feel bad about it. At 50-1. I don't think you're going to win, but there's a chance if Curry may play 62 games or something. What if he keeps getting hurt or something weird happens and then him and Draymond split the vote and all of a sudden Kawhi on the 67-win Spurs team ends up winning the MVP, I'd feel bad. I want to tell you that.

I'd feel bad. That's so nice of you. I appreciate that. I could have done it anyway, obviously. You could have done it or you couldn't have? I could have. I could have gone ahead and made that bet. Cavaliers-Thunder. Finals matchup possible. You want have gone ahead and made that bet. Cavaliers, Cavaliers Thunder.

Finals matchup possible. You want to guess the odds for that? It's got to be in the plus like 400 range, right? 500? Plus 900. Oh, my goodness. Yeah. You know I have an irrational thing thing for okc now calves warriors

is minus 110 calves spurs is plus 275 calves thunder plus 900 so i like both the spurs and the thunder i i'm gonna do both of those i'm gonna hang up the phone and make a communication issue an electronic i don't want to talk about an electronic communication. I'm going to figure out a way to enjoy those odds. Okay, see, they're definitely the third team

in the West right now as a contender. No question. Doesn't seem like they're that far away from the Spurs, though. You still have to beat Westbrook and Durant four times in a seven-game series. I would not want to have to do that. And it's going to happen in round two for somebody. It's going to happen.

Spurs, Warriors are playing OKC in round two. Seems like Billy Donovan is finally getting the hell out of the way. Yeah. Thanks for getting out of the way, Billy Donovan. You dumbass. The idea that one of those two guys has to be on the floor at all times seems like it's catching on. Here's what I like about OKC just as a future bet. I think they have a trade to make.

I think they have too many big guys and there's a two for one or something, but they're one more shooter waiting to happen. Ryan Anderson is a really interesting possibility for them. Oh my gosh. That's somebody who can play crunch time for them. Oh my gosh, are you kidding? You know, and he's sitting there and teams want him. Like Ryan Anderson is going to end up getting a nice package for New Orleans for something.

But that's somebody that could really help Oklahoma City. Your team needs a guy like that, by the way. I watched your team last night. I'm done with my team. I'm out. It's part of the process. They can't take off for the season until I've said nasty things about them and I've written them off. I'm just done.

It's too familiar. They still can't score. I hate watching their trips down the floor and the ball stopping and just missed open shots. It hurts my eyes. There's two problems. One is that they're built around the three guards and especially the defense of when they have Smart

and Bradley and Crowder out there all at the same time. Their identity is defense, but smart was hurt for a while. Now Bradley's hurt and they can't get those guys going together at the same time. So none of this is that surprising. Yeah. But what's frustrating is,

well, first of all, Isaiah Thomas is in a crunch time guy day after day after day. He's a guy who should play 25 minutes a game and you ride him when he's hot and when he's not hot, you don't play him. You're in crunch time. You know what I mean? Yeah, and this is the same problem as last year.

What's the plan B? Well, they don't. And there's a little James Harden going on with him where I don't want to call him a ball hog, but when he has the ball, he's going to do something with it. I think that's funny. Let's just start calling him Little James Harden.

Mini James. But when he has it, everybody's kind of watching him, waiting to see what he does, right? And now it's been a full year of that, and it makes the Celtics pretty predictable. And what's happening is there's certain teams that have the right kind of guy to shut him down, right? Shumpert owns Isaiah Thomas.

The taller guys who can move with him they just take him out and the celts have nobody else to create offense you know and they and he's playing too many guys which is another problem they have too many guys on the roster like they're dying to make a four for one and it's just the trade hasn't materialized yet but you can't't play 11, 12 guys a game. Nobody's getting consistent minutes. I don't feel like anybody on the team is really happy with their minutes except for Crowder. I know that I have a problem with the Celtics when I'm watching, getting frustrated by their lack of ability to score and wishing that Evan Turner would get the ball more.

Yeah, Evan Turner is the second best creator on the entire team. He's actually been pretty good this season. But I actually think Stevens should do the Spurs model of just certain guys sit every game. Almost like what my daughter has when they have fifth grade volleyball and they have too many people on the team, so everybody has to sit out two games. He should just try that with the big guys.

But the other problem is their lineup last year that was really good was when they played Crowder at the four and they went a little small ball action with the guards and all that stuff. Everybody in the league does that now. You're not taking anyone by surprise with that angle. You're just going against other teams that are doing the same thing. You're not creating an advantage with it. And the league's better.

So the Celts are in this weird no-man's land where they're too good to tank, but they missed their window to go for the two-seater or the three-seater. They just played. They had two games against the Nets. They had a Lakers game. You know, they should have gone 4-0, and they went 1-3. Oh, they still can. And we really, really, really need them

to do this, win 45 games. They still can do it. I think they can do that. Not too late. I keep waiting. Nobody will make a trade this year. You know, you look at all these teams that just seem like they should be dying to make a trade, like Phoenix. What the F are they waiting for?

Well, Houston's dying to make a trade. Houston's dying to make a trade. Is's dying to make a trade? Is Memphis just going to go down in flames with grit and grind? Nobody in the league plays that way anymore? Is that where you're doing Memphis? It looks like it. I'm interested to see. My team needs to make a trade.

Your team definitely, desperately needs to make a trade, but what's the trade? Are you willing to give up a number one pick? Are you willing to give up Otto Porter? That depends on what we get back. It just depends on what we get back. are you willing to give up a number one pick are you willing to give up Otto Porter or are you even expiring it just depends on what we get back there's a lot of unpalatable options for my team

I read a good piece somewhere maybe it was Dan Devine Dan Devine does that like a power rankings thing or something he was saying how he loves how John Wall's playing but he hates watching the Wizards and I thought that summed it up. That's how I feel, too.

Yeah. Welcome to my world. Yeah. John Wall's been, you know, he had a little rocky start. Got booed once, but... He was hurt. He was hurt. It came out after the month of November that he had either...

It was a hamstring. He had a leg problem. I don't recall it off the top of my head anymore. Are you sure you don't want to roll the dice with Dwight Howard? Oh, my God. Roll the dice with Dwight Howard? Oh my god. Roll the dice down the sewer? Yes, I'm happy to do that. Take two dice and throw them down the sewer.

Really? You don't want to roll the dice with Dwight Howard? Don't like him. Don't like his game. Don't know how he fits in. What was the last moment of extended success with Dwight Howard? What team do you point to that he's been on in the last five years and say, oh, well, that was pretty formidable.

They were out doing stuff. Would you trade Nene's expiring for Tyson Chandler? Sure, yeah, something like that. Roll the dice with Tyson Chandler and his weird contract and the fact that he looks like a corpse? Yeah, but the pick and roll with him and John Wall, that's cool. I'm into that. I'm into that kind of thing.

I think that's where you think. I think you need to use the Nene expiring and roll the dice. I've already complained about not having gotten Channing Frye in the offseason when the team knew that it was going to try and do this pace and space offense. I don't think you should save cap space for Durant this summer because the move for him will be to roll it over and sign a one-year deal and expire when Westbrook's expiring and have those guys go into 2017.

He's not going to be a free agent this summer. It's not happening. That's a fact. Zach Lowe did the definitive piece on this at the very beginning of the season. He is going to be, when he enters free agency properly at the same time as Westbrook and Ibaka, a 10-year service player at exactly the moment that the cap explodes. So he, under the current collective bargaining agreement, will be able to command 35% of the cap at that moment. He is not doing anything this upcoming summer

other than resigning with OKC and his homies. He's not going anywhere. Talking about teams that might make a trade, the Clippers are fascinating to me. First of all, I've gone to two games this year and I just dislike going to their games. You don't like it, I know. I don't like it.

I just don't like going. I don't like how Doc has infected the fans. And I say this with love. Clipper fans, you know I love what you've been through, and I think you're good fans. Don't take this the wrong way, but every referee isn't against you. This isn't a league-wide conspiracy

to just call games against the clippers like the well that there's the chicken and egg that team can't keep bitching you know it took on that identity three years ago i know and now it's infected the fans and when they had these home games it's just a tsunami of everybody thinking the world's against them and it's like yeah some of these guys are hard to call. Like Blake Griffin, you could call a foul on every play. You could call a foul on no plays. And Chris Paul's really physical.

And, you know, and DeAndre gets fouled all the time. And it's just, it's weird. I had more fun going to the Clipper games when it was like the Tim Thomas era. And it was just weird. And they had weird guys in the team. You didn't know if somebody was stoned. Like, and somebody could score 45 points or zero. just weird and they had weird guys in the team you didn't know if somebody was stoned like uh and somebody we could score 45 points or zero and it was like oh good cory mcgetty showed up tonight

and sure it was just more entertaining than whatever this is i don't know what this is but blake got hurt a little tear here now go ahead blake got hurt and they started playing better which is the fundamental problem with this team, which is when they have those three guys together, it doesn't totally seem to work. Even though I've seen all the plus minus numbers. I'm just talking about crunch time. DeAndre and Blake at crunch time just seems like teams can know how to shut it down. Tate, do you like watching the Clippers at crunch time?

No. Tate says no. Tate loves basketball I always like to ask Tate one question Where he doesn't have a mic And there's just silence And the listener doesn't know what happened Do you always give him a yes or no opportunity to

I would trade This is sacrilege And I really don't want this to end up As like a blog post or something Simmons says trade Chris Paul Because I know how the internet works. Like just settle down. I'm just talking to my buddy about basketball. I would trade Chris Paul right now if I was the Clippers.

I would trade him today. What could they get back? I don't know. I would shop it around and see if I could get a point guard who could at least start for me. And a whole bunch of assets that either I could keep for the future or maybe flip into something else. I'd want to get a shooter back. So somebody like Milwaukee?

Is that an interesting... Something. But you can't piss off Chris Paul either, right? You've got to send him to a place where he's not going to be mad at you. Why? If you're the other... If he's going to Milwaukee, he's going to be mad and if I'm the Bucs, I don't want angrys, I don't want to give up my entire team for angry Chris Paul. It's got to be the right fit.

I wonder if he and J. Kidd are boys. Maybe. I don't know. But it's year 11 for Chris Paul. Point Guard History says you're in your past prime right now, basically. You're still in your prime, but you're running on the fumes of the prime. And now he's about to morph into a guy who can still get there, but it's not going to be every night. You watch Westbrook, it's like that guy's in his prime.

Athletically, he's showing up every single night. You know what you're getting with Westbrook. Chris Paul's moving toward the stage where that's physically not possible with all the miles that he has on him. Well, I don't know any teams with assets that fit. Maybe Houston. That's the only one I can come up with. Teams with assets that fit the constraint you just put on,

which is don't make Chris Paul angry in connection with the trade. Would he be angry if he went to Houston? In the first place, would he even trade with the Clippers? I can't find the trade either. That's the problem with this. I don't disagree with the premise, by the way. I think he's at an all-time high. Well, not all-time.

That's silly. But for this phase of his career, his value is as high as it's going to get. That's what I really mean. I mean, you could do a Toronto with Kyle Lowry, but if I'm Toronto, what does that get for me? Right. No, I wouldn't do that. I don't know.

My point is I don't know what the Clippers should do, but they can't win with the team they have, and it's just going to get old and they're going to miss their window and it's going to be over. And I would not trade Blake if I was them. I would. And they've said it. The window is this year. I would shop DeAndre.

Wow. After all they just went and did. You got to, though. You got to at least see what's out there for them. Dallas have anything of interest coming back to the Clippers? The problem is the teams that make sense for Chris where he's not going to be mad are in the West. It doesn't make any sense to the Clippers? The problem is the teams that make sense for Chris, where he's not going to be mad, are in the West.

It doesn't make any sense for the Clippers to trade with somebody in the West. Here's the Clippers' destiny. Right now they're at four seed. That's where they're going to end up unless Durant or Westbrook goes down for a big stretch. And they're going to lose to Golden State in round two. That's going to happen three and a half months from now. Put it in the book now put it in the book

put it in the book they're gonna lose to Golden State in round two so do you just accept that or do you try to do something that's what that's uh

it's it's a hard one we talked about this uh five weeks ago with Chicago and D. Rose now D at the moment

when we talked about it with D. Rose he was still not able to see out of both eyes. I'd trade him right now. Who? Chris Paul or D Rose? I'd trade Derek Rose. I just did another drink that wasn't spit.

I'd trade Derek Rose to, I'd try to get Brooklyn to bite on him. He looked really good last night. Yeah. Trade him right now. Your team could not get in his way. Good. Trade. Trade him right now. Your team could not get in his way. Good. Trade. Who wants him? Chicago and LA Clippers?

D-Rose to the Clippers? The track record of guys not being at an elite level for more than three years and then coming back and rejoining that elite level is really not good in the NBA history. There's no track record. There's no track record at all. Who fits that description?

Bill Walton. And Bill Walton did it playing 18 minutes a game for the Celtics. He's a role player. Yeah, he became a role player. He wasn't elite. He was an elite role player. My fear with D. Rose is that it's a Penny Hardaway type of situation where Penny Hardaway goes from Orlando to Phoenix, gets knee surgery.

He's good. He's good for a year. His knee's hurt again. And everybody's kind of like, no, they have Penny Hardaway. He's good. He's good for a year. His knee's hurt again. And everybody's kind of like, no, they have Penny Hardaway. He's great. And he wasn't great anymore. And a couple years passed and he got hurt again. He got hurt again.

And then he got traded to the Knicks. And it was over. That would be my worst case scenario for them. What would you do if you were Phoenix? That's a rational question. You're asking me to try and apply rational thought to an irrational situation. I've been completely lost by their

game plan, their MO, their strategy since the moment that they had four draft picks two years ago. Four draft picks in a draft that people lauded as one of the best of the last 20 years. You know what I noticed with them?

You remember Dumars, I think, got bounced in the summer of 2014. Dumars was the all-time hit-or-miss GM. Every move he made was either fantastic or a complete catastrophe, and there was never a middle ground, right?

Like he'd be like, this summer we signed Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva and tied up our cap space for three years. Like just complete catastrophe. Darko Milicek over Carmelo. Yeah, that's great. But then he'd flip it around. He'd be like, yeah, we're going to take Andre Drummond. It's like one of the best picks of the decade. Yeah, exactly.

He'd Tayshaun Prince, the Rashid Wallace trade, science Chauncey Billups, the Allen Iverson trade, another catastrophe. But he was like, hit or miss, hit or miss, hit or miss. And now Phoenix has assumed that mantle. Everything Phoenix does is either terrible or fantastic. And they're on a run of terrible. What's been fantastic?

Yeah, what's been fantastic? But remember heading into that summer, they had like a million first round picks. They had cap space. They had all these young guards. Things were looking great. And they won 48 games. They won 48 games.

Hornacek, Marquise Morris. They locked down the Morris Twins to a really good contract. And then it's been 18 months now. Yeah. They went out and got another point guard and pissed off Goran Dragic. The biggest mistake. They should have kept Isaiah Thomas.

They should have kept that Lakers pick. That Lakers pick is going to rear its ugly head. So Markeith is going to go somewhere. That will be a trade. I don't know where. I would welcome him to Washington, by the way. I'm glad people are finally realizing what happened with Markeith.

This is the most cut and dry thing that's ever happened in the NBA, where it's like, oh, what happened to this guy? Why is he so bad? He signed a deal with his brother. They said, we'll give you 52 million dollars for four years you guys split it up however you want they're like great we'll take we won't even explore our market value we just want to be here we want to play together we'll sign this deal they didn't their agents didn't put a no trade clause any of that stuff and then they trade his brother

a year later and now he's got a bad contract for what his production was he's not playing with his brother anymore which is the whole reason he resigned they screwed him over he's mad about it yeah well and and and he's a millennial so it's his fault i didn't realize how late we went let's. We'll talk more hoops next week. Can't wait! So, thanks to Squarespace for making it so easy to build state-of-the-art websites without breaking a sweat, regardless of your skill level. No coding needed.

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It's, it's, uh, it's pretty great. And that one of the better things they've streamed in a while. They also have the Godfather. Uh, remember they did the Godfather thing where they,

they did it chronologically. Oh, I love that. Yeah. That starts next week. Always good stuff now on HBO now. So check that out. Thanks to seek geek,

the presenting sponsor of the BS podcast and the channel 33 podcast, which we had a bunch of podcasts that we did this week, including I did a bachelor podcast with Juliet Lipman. Oh yeah. Did my whole theory about, um, Jubilee who every year they always have just one or black or one or two black contestants on The Bachelor for some reason, and nobody ever thinks this is the worst thing ever, which it really is. At least one year have like eight. Pretty obnoxious.

But this one they have this year really has a chance to make them run. I haven't watched The Bachelor in 12 years. Well, you should watch this one, Jubilee. She's a war hero. She's beautiful. I love her name. She has a war hero. She's beautiful. I love her name. Has a chance to be... I always used to compare this to

Gonzaga making the Final Four. Just flipping the script. She goes on a run. It might be the Jubilee pick of the week. That might go on the website. Housefromdc.com So anyway, Channel 33. A whole bunch of good stuff on there. Check that out. Enjoy the weekend. Good luck with your football picks. And, uh, you can subscribe to the BS podcast on iTunes, Stitcher or SoundCloud. We are out house. Good luck with this. Yes. Good luck with the skins and try not to assault Daniel Slater.

I'm actually rooting for, for rooting for our paths not crossing. All right, good. All right, enjoy the weekend. Thanks. Ready, rolling. We about this bitch. Anytime y'all want to see me again, rewind this track right here, close your eyes, and picture me rolling.