The Bill Simmons Podcast - Favorite NFL Future Bets, the Heat’s Weird Offseason, and Underrated NBA Summer Storylines With Warren Sharp, Joe House, and Justin Termine

Episode Date: August 29, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Warren Sharp to discuss the Patriots' grim outlook for the 2022-23 NFL season, AFC playoff predictions, the case for and against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, the reloaded Bengals, and more (2:22), before Joe House joins in and they discuss their favorite NFL future bets (28:02). Finally, Bill is joined by Justin Termine of SiriusXM to discuss a couple of NBA topics including: the Heat's lackluster offseason, managing expectations for the Nets, the wildcard 76ers, the Suns perhaps missing their title window, and more (1:20:53). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Warren Sharp, Joe House, and Justin Termine Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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That's the only hint I'm giving you. Hey, my friend Zane Lowe convinced me to go on TikTok. I had already had a TikTok account, but I wasn't doing anything. But I started firing up some clips and a couple of weird takes. And if you want to check it out, my account is 33BS33. So TikTok, kind of fun. I don't really totally understand it, but I do like that you basically have 20 to 25 seconds to win somebody's attention over the take. And if you don't do it in the first two seconds, it's done. I'm messing around. I might mess around during football season. There might be some nephew Kyle having a heart attack as the Patriots fall behind by 14 in the first quarter of the season. Might put a couple of those clips

on there. But anyway, you can check that out on Instagram. I'm on Instagram. You know the Instagram, you know my Twitter, but TikTok, 33BS33. Coming up on this podcast. Warren Sharp from the ringer gambling show is going to pop on and talk about his 10 favorite NFL future bets. Joe has joins us midway through and, and I throw out a couple as well. So that was really fun. And then we needed a little MBA. This will probably be the last Sunday for a while that we talk about MBA.

So I brought Justin Termini, our friend from the, uh, radio show with Eddie Johnson that he does on the SiriusXM channel. Really good show every afternoon. So he came on and we talked about

kind of the underrated storylines of the season that got overshadowed by Kevin Durant. So that is all next. First, our friends from Pearl Chip. All right. Our friend Warren Sharp is here. You know him from Sharp Football.

You know him from the Ringer Gambling Show. He's not been on this podcast since the spring. He has already made most of his future bets. We're going to have his Friday Ringer Gambling Show podcast partner, Joe House, join us a little bit later, and we're going to just make fun of House's bets because I guarantee most of them are bad. I should also mention before we get going that Nephew Kyle, you might want to start drinking now

because there's going to be some Patriots thoughts that you're not going to be happy with. He's not going to like this. He's already been after me on Twitter a little bit about some of my Mac Jones takes. Well, let's start with the Patriots. They've had an alarming preseason. Like absolutely alarming.

There has been, and it's not just how bad they've looked in the preseason games. It's the day-to-day practices and the Patriots have great beat writers. They have, you know, Tom Curran, Andrew Callahan, and Mike Reese, and all these dudes are really good. And all of them every day after practice are like the Pat's offense look terrible again. And they have decided to throw away the offensive coordinator position for reasons that I don't understand. They've looked super disjointed. They're secondary. They're relying on a fourth-round rookie and Jalen Mills as their cornerbacks.

They've kind of thrown away the linebacker position for the most part. And they're in a conference that, in my opinion, I think the AFC is just better than the NFC. I think we actually have a lopsided league. I don't see a path for them to make the playoffs sharp. What do you see? That's one of my top 10 futures. You asked me, come on, bring your top 10 futures with you. I think the Patriots are going to struggle to make the postseason. And I thought that ever since I started writing my book. This isn't something that just came to me with what I saw in the preseason.

But I'm glad that you are being pretty objective about this situation because the Patriots in camp, there were all these rumors and issues and concerns with all those well-known beat writers who you just named. And as the preseason has unfolded, and as we've seen the games, like this stuff hasn't gotten cleaned up. This stuff hasn't gotten better. The stuff that those beat writers who are covering this team every single day were worried about and saying, yes, I know it's early August, or I know it's late July, but this offense has been being installed for months now. We should be much further along than we are right now. And those things were still concerns. I watched on Friday night against the Raiders. It was an absolute shit show. I mean, they couldn't have gone worse. Anyway, go ahead.

Well, I was just saying, part of the reason why I've gotten to this point, beyond just what I see with my eyeballs and what I read from the media, two of which are very important when you're trying to calculate futures, is we saw what Bill Belichick did after Tom Brady won that Super Bowl. Bill Belichick went ham in free agency

like he's never done before. And every single one of those players that he signed, now their salary cap hit is over double what it was last season. So we're talking about Johnnie Smith and Nelson Aguilar and Kendrick Bourne, guys that weren't integral last season are now double the cost this season. And salary cap's important because it limits what you can do elsewhere on the field. And obviously- Well, wait, you got to mention they've spent the most money on wide receivers and tight ends of anyone in the league.

I think it's $72 million on the cap this year, which is crazy because they don't have a number one target. No. I mean, if you look at that receiving core and you say, this receiving core is costing us, including tight ends, over $70 million on the cap, you would not believe the two things could be correlated whatsoever. Because of that spending, they lost JC Jackson in part because of that spending. Shaq Mason is with the Bucks. They traded him, but he was one of the better. He was a fourth overall graded out guard out of 88 guards. He was the second best right guard by Pro Football Focus

last season. Ted Karras is now with the Bengals out of 88 guards. He graded out seventh best in pass blocking last season. We're talking about two top 10 guards are now no longer on the team. And I know they have a plan of who they're going to play in their place, but expecting top 10 performance out of those players is very unlikely. Obviously, you already talked about their linebacker position. You know, Kyle Van Noy, Grady is the number one coverage linebacker per PFF last season. He is now gone. He's with the Chargers as well. Then you look at who is on this wide receiving core. Who is Mac Jones throwing the football to? And, you know, they go out and they get Devante Parker. Devante Parker, I've said this before.

It's not like this might not be the first time you guys are hearing it, but he is the least likely guy to gain separation in the NFL. So you say, okay, that's fine. That's just who he is. Yes, you're right. He's just a jump ball guy. Yes, you're right. That's not how Mac Jones throws the football.

Look at his receivers in Alabama. Look at who he's used to throwing the football to. Look at what he did last season. He throws to open players more than the league average last season. And he did it a ton in college because of all the receivers that they had down there at Alabama. And these guys were able to get open. Now you're expecting him to throw the ball into tight windows with precision. Like I like Mac Jones, but that's just really not the guy type of guy that he's excelled at throwing to throughout

his career thus far. And that is why guys like Tua and even Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jacoby Brissett, they all led the league in tight window throws with the Dolphins because of how often they were trying to target their number one receiver down there in Devontae Parker. Now you also factor in that this team, yes, I was impressed. I was shocked that they were able to go only one season in sort of a soft rebuild and then get back to double digit wins. But three of they won three of 10 games versus teams that had a winning record. One of those games last season was against Buffalo in a hurricane. One of those games last season was against the Tennessee Titans, who was without almost

everyone like A.J. Brown didn't play. Derrick Henry didn't play. Julio Jones didn't play. And they had a really good win against the L.A. Chargers last season. Now I show them playing the eighth toughest strength of schedule this year after playing the eighth easiest strength of schedule last season. They have terrible rest situation as well. And I just I just think it's going to be tough. And as you mentioned, the AFC is stacked. That's why I agree. Patriots to miss the playoffs is one of my favorite top 10 futures of the season. So on FanDuel right now, they're plus 160 to make the playoffs and minus 198 to miss it.

And you also have, there's some bets. Like if you really want to short the Pats, like you could say if they go 6-11 or worse, that's plus 280 on FanDuel. If they go 7-10 or worse, that's plus 160. And their under for the season is 8.5. If you're going to make a case for them, their schedule the first part of the year is actually pretty favorable. From week five to week eight, they're home Detroit, at Cleveland with no Deshaun, home Chicago, and at the Jets. And then they have Indianapolis home week nine, bye week, and then week 11, the Jets again. So you can make a case if they can somehow, first four weeks, it's at Miami, at Pittsburgh,

Baltimore, at Green Bay. If they can somehow get two and two out of that, then they have this nice soft schedule coming up. But to me, it's like the preseason and practice every day has to matter at least a little bit. And I just, I worry, I don't know. I'm really starting to worry about Belichick between the drafts that he's had the last couple of years, between the weird free agent spree that he went on last year. And then this offensive coordinator thing, like people, high school teams don't do this.

High school teams have offensive coordinators. I don't want to sound like I'm super panicky, but man, I'm just not seeing anything this summer that I'm like, all right, feeling good about that. Ooh. Okay.

It's, it's just been a lot of hits. All right. So one thing, one thing I mentioned, we're going to, you're going to give us your top 10. So there was one. Do you agree that the AFC is just stronger have potentially more problems this year than they did last year or the year before that. And thus there are some holes amongst those top teams, but in general conference versus conference, yes, the AFC is stronger top to bottom for sure. Cause I've been trying to figure out my playoff teams. And as you know, every year there's between five and seven playoff teams get bounced the next year, right? So if you're going to say from last year,

let's say Tennessee, Vegas, Arizona, and the Patriots, and Pittsburgh, let's throw out, there's five that are realistic. You bounce them, right? So in the AFC, Buffalo Cincy, Indy, KC as the division winners, and then Baltimore and the Chargers, maybe some mix of those six.

For you, who's that seventh AFC team? If I'm going to give you those six, Buffalo, Cincy, Indy, Casey, Baltimore and the Chargers. Do you have Vegas? Do you have Denver? Do you have Pittsburgh? Somebody at Miami? Who do you have? You gave me Cincy or did you not give me

Cincy? I have Cincy in there already in the six. Okay. So you could have Miamicy in there already in the six. Okay. So you could have Miami, you could have Vegas, Denver. I go Miami. I go Miami and Denver is close, but I lean Miami. That's one of my top 10 is Miami to win over eight and a half games this year. Oh, wow. So Miami to win the division plus 450.

Yeah, I don't love that quite as much, but I do love Miami to make the playoffs and or to just exceed eight and a half wins because winning nine games, in my opinion, does not guarantee a playoff berth in the AFC. Miami to make the playoffs plus 142. All right. So make the case for Tua because I don't see it. Yeah, I know. This is actually probably one of the things, if you said, I'm trying to look for a silver lining in the Patriots and what they could do. I guess the number one place that the Patriots fans would point is just that they don't really believe in the Jets and they don't really believe in Tua and the Dolphins. But I am on the other side of the fence with regard to Tua and what I think that the Dolphins are going to do this season. And so let's go ahead and state that case. The case for me starts and ends with what Tua has had to deal with thus far in his career. So rapid fire, he comes,

is rehabbing this catastrophic hip injury in the COVID off season. He can't get into the facility. The offense is being designed for Ryan Fitzpatrick by a retired grandfather who then is convinced to come back to the NFL to call plays for Ryan Fitzpatrick. They stick him in there and it's Ryan Fitzpatrick's offense. Tua is not even taking any number one QB snaps in the offseason. Midway through the season, they just go to Tua. And Chan Gailey's like, this is a massive mistake. I don't know why we're going to Tua here. This offense is designed for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Forget also, for a second, Bill, right-handed versus left-handed quarterback. I mean,

they don't change enough for a left-handed quarterback. We're seeing a team then that goes out. Brian Flores obviously doesn't even like Tua. They're pulling Tua out in late game situations. Why do they say they're doing that? They say they're doing that because he doesn't know the full playbook. Well, if he doesn't know the full playbook, why is he even playing in the games in the first place? Again, like why was he even being thrust into these situations? Then you go to next year, which is last season. He's finally taking first team reps all camp. He has a healthy off season for the first time, but he has no clue who his offensive coordinator is going to be. Even two weeks into the season, they change up their play calling duties midway through the season. He suffers rib fractures at the beginning of week two. He misses most of that game and the

next three games in which the Dolphins go 0-4 while he's out. He comes back and then he fractures the middle finger on his throwing hand in week eight. I mean, then you look at who he throws the ball to and what he's playing with. His wide receivers have the worst separation in the NFL. His pass catchers rank second worst in yards after the catch. His O-line ranks as one of the worst in the NFL in protection. His running backs rank number 30 in efficiency. What are we to expect a quarterback is going to do in this situation? If Mac Jones is in that situation and Mac Jones doesn't look perfect, you would obviously say like, well, look at all this stuff that's going on around him. He doesn't have a coordinator. He is playing injured. He was playing in an offense designed by a grandfather who had no clue what he was doing. Like all of these things are built in excuses for any other quarterback.

But people already just for whatever reason, don't think Tua can cut it. Don't like Tua. Oh, he can't throw it deep enough in this situation. So I'm not going to like him. I think a lot of people have very preconceived notions of what Tua is not based on what they have seen these first two years and the way that Brian Flores treated him in Miami. And I just don't know that that's fair. Now, what can we expect from Mike McDaniel this year?

I don't know. That's to be determined. But what I do know is this team understood what they didn't have before and went on a mission to address it this season. They got better along the offensive line. They finally will have a run game that Tua can rely on somewhat because they have better backs. They have a much better scheme and a better O-line, obviously.

They finally went out and got receivers that can get separation, which means Tua no longer has to lead the NFL in tight window throws. He's going to be able to throw the ball to guys that are open. And then these guys are able to gain yards after the catch, which is something Jimmy G led the NFL over the last three years in yards per pass attempt. But he's not throwing the ball down the field. Nobody would say, oh yeah, out of 50 different quarterbacks, which one do you think led the NFL in yards per attempt? Nobody is going to say Jimmy G. It entirely came because of the yards after the catch that that offense was designed to gain. And thus, I believe that

we're going to see the same type of upside to an extent for Tua with easier yards after the catch, raising and inflating his numbers across the board. I don't know how easy it's going to be to transition into this offense. I don't know if it's going to look perfect week one. They play the Patriots week one. And I will tell you, Bill, that line was Miami minus three. It got bet down to New England plus two and a half. So money came in on the Patriots at plus three. But after what we just saw with the Dolphins ending their preseason and the Patriots ending their preseason, this line just this morning, Sunday morning, was slammed back to New England plus three. The Miami money came in. They didn't like what New England was doing this preseason, and they liked what the Dolphins were doing. I just think that the Dolphins have enough

with an improved Tua that they're going to win at least nine games this year. Compelling case. They got much faster with their receivers. Armstead, if he can stay healthy, they spent a lot of money on him, but they needed the anchor. I can't shake what I watched the last couple of years with Tua. It didn't feel like he could move around and he didn't seem that accurate. And they seemed like they were really scared to put him in situations to air it out. Everything was so carefully managed with him. And I've just watched it over the years where teams seem to be afraid of their own quarterback. They call games a certain way and it seemed like they were afraid to let him do too much. So if they're going to leave him.

Isn't that exactly how you're describing the situation? Isn't that exactly the way that Kyle Shanahan deals with Jimmy G? Like they're scared to put too much on his shoulders and to get him through. They don't have a lot of confidence in him throwing the ball down the field. So you're saying he's lefty Jimmy G is your, is your taker. He's a little bit more mobile than Jimmy G. Jimmy G won a lot of games. Yeah. Jimmy G has managed that offense extremely well. We've seen Kyle Shanahan splits with and without Jimmy G behind center there. It's been night and day. Jimmy G knows what to do.

I do worry that Tua is not going to have the quick processing decision making and the ability to get the ball over the middle of the field as well as Jimmy G was able to do. But you know what I love? Schrager and I did this on Thursday. I think there's like eight or nine. You have to take a stance one way or the other. You have to plant your flag on one side or the other NFL questions. And two is one of the best ones. There's no middle ground either. I'm in and here are the reasons he's finally healthy. They finally have the, you go through the whole list or you can just go, I don't think he has it. He's, he's shown nothing that he has it the last two years and I don't see it. I am in the, I don't see it camp, but I wouldn't be completely

shocked if that hip injury was, you know, it took him two full years to recover. I just think he's not mobile enough to me. So if you're not mobile, you better be throwing BBs. And I just haven't seen it from him. Give me your third future bet. Let's go quicker. Give me a quickie one. Okay. A quickie one. We hit two AFCs, Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs. I think it's now minus 146. I just looked this morning. So injury luck. No way it could be that bad. Secondary's back. They're not going to have the same sack margin as last season. They're not going to be 31st and third down conversion rate in the first half. They're going to be better. They're not going to suddenly shift

everything onto Lamar Jackson's plate, which is what they had to do last year. The nerds are carrying the torches with this Baltimore case. The regression thing, which are they, what progression, what's the opposite of regression? The reverse regression? Well, you can have positive or negative regression. Positive regression. Yeah. It couldn't have gone worse last year. Harbaugh trusts the

process. What's Harbaugh, what do they have? Like the third most wins in the last nine years? Something like that? I did the homework on this. It was... Sounds right. Yeah, something like that. They're one of like five teams that have averaged at least 10 wins a game in the last nine years. And... You know, they were 50-50-1 before Lamar started for them though. I mean, they were on the verge of firing John Harbaugh. Yeah. Oh no, they had 83 wins the last nine years. So the thing that worries me is something that we can't figure out. How much does the fact that Lamar's contract was not settled,

how much is that going to affect this team? Combined with the fact that I would put their receivers, receiver tight end, I guess Andrews is their best one. People like Bateman, but the receiver tight end combos they have, I would say bottom seven, bottom eight in the league, bottom five. Receiver alone, bottom five. Receiver tight end In the league, bottom five receiver, receiver alone, bottom five receiver tight end. Maybe it's bottom 10. But I will tell you this. The breakout of likely is going to be massive. I'm about to do some research on the benefit of a true number two tight end for this

offense. They haven't had that for several years. The last time they had it was 2019 when obviously the Mar was lighting the world on fire. If likely can actually play really well as that second tight end, that is going to be massive for them. And you're way more pro Lamar. I mean, Lamar's a little polarizing. I think most people are in to some degree. I guess I don't, I guess he's burned me in playoff games. So let me ask you this. He still has to win my trust there. With regard, with regard to this season, pretend you're not a Baltimore fan, which you're not, and pretend you are thinking about betting on the Ravens this season. Do you want to have your quarterback just receive a massive bag and be the highest paid quarterback in the NFL with all this

guaranteed money? Or do you want him to be on a deal where this is like the last season and he's trying to prove himself in order to earn that money. The proving worries me a little because, I mean, I would say I did my top 10 defenses. We did some ringer pods on this best offenses, best defenses. They have a top five defense, whether you want to put them number three, number four, number five, they're somewhere in the three to five range. So for me, it's like, how can they succeed and take advantage of the stuff Lamar is good at without relying on him too much? Where it's almost like if they unleash him too much,

he might undermine, which what they should really be is like a running ball control, let the defense, great special teams. That's kind of the recipe for them this year. So I kind of don't want him to be proving why he should have a $240 million contract. Does that sound weird? It doesn't sound weird, but they had to do that last year, right? Last year they had no running back. So they shifted from the second most run heavy offense the prior two years to the seventh most pass heavy offense.

And Lamar Jackson had him in the number one seed in the AFC, despite a terrible O-line, despite terrible wide receivers. The thing about the defense is important because you mentioned you think they're definitely a top five defense. This year, I predict that the Ravens will play the second easiest schedule of offenses and the second easiest schedule of opposing quarterbacks. And that makes a massive difference on how good or bad your defense ends up looking. If you're playing bad quarterbacks, And that makes a massive difference on how good or bad your defense ends up looking. If you're playing bad quarterbacks, you have a chance to really shine defensively. I mean, last year, this team was playing Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr. And yeah, I know a lot of people don't like him, but Kirk Cousins,

they don't have to play any of those guys this year. And the list of quarterbacks that they're playing this year, yes, there are a couple of Josh Allen. There's a couple of games. Obviously, they play two games each year against Joe Burrow. They play Tom Brady this year. But the list of quarterbacks that they're going to play this year that have massive question marks around them is pretty phenomenal. So yeah, they could be easily three. Yeah, they could have a three and0 start. I like Cincy more. And I think Cincy's had a lot of continuity. And I don't see the Super Bowl hanging over with them. I actually feel like they shouldn't have done as well as they did last year. And this should have been the year.

But a couple things happened. All of a sudden, they're in the Super Bowl and came, you know, within a drive of potentially stealing the Super Bowl. I like that team. Burrow, two years now since the surgery. The chase mixing combo, that's about as good as you're doing with a running back wide receiver combo in the league this year.

And Burrow's the top five, top six, whatever. I just like them. I think it's weird that they're over under as nine and a half for wins. It's like people are now pricing in the Super Bowl hangover. And to me, it's like that feels a little gimm more importantly, and who they added to that team. I was like, yeah, this is a much harder schedule, but they got better where they needed to, which is along that line, Joe Burrow taking a record number of hits and still delivering last season and hanging in there. If he is healthy this season, which is what this team really comes down to. And the O-line's better. And he's on a rookie contract.

They're able to spend the money elsewhere. Like there's a lot of breadcrumbs here for them to be an 11 and six, 12 and five type team. Yeah, I can't disagree. I wasn't, they're not a team I've bet against or bet on at all this off season. I also think that their defense is quietly underrated. I study defense a lot and especially adjustments that get made.

And in the second half of games down the stretch, Lou Amarillo made some massive defensive changes and tweaks with the way that they were playing and really caught a lot of teams off guard. May not have that same advantage heading into this season, but I like guys that think outside the box a little bit. And I think they've got enough pieces there to be able to be a, still a very good defense. I have them in the top 10, somewhere in like the eight to 10 range in a, in the Denver, Denver Buffalo group. There's somewhere, somewhere in there because of what you said, like

over and over again, they were able to get stops when they really, really needed them in the playoffs and they haven't really lost anybody. Um, I like Cincy. Uh, right, we're going to take a break and come back and do some more futures. Kick off week one with FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Join today to get started with $150 in free bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. Sign up with promo code BS to get in on the action and you can turn game day into payday all season long. We're about to talk about the Philadelphia Eagles and some of their future bets. You get a little frisky, pull a $5 on the Eagles. 16 to one would be the one seed in the NFC.

Then you'll get more free bets after that. Play your way bet on more than just the final score. Wager on everything from touchdowns to total yards to catches. You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with the same game parlay. Don't fumble your chance to get $150 in free bets. Win or lose with promo code BS. Make every moment more.

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Tennessee red line is 800-889-9789. And in West Virginia, 1800gamber.net. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up

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So now this is too late because this was the bet a month ago, but now it feels like it's shifted to that bet. You know what's hilarious? This was one of my strongest bets two, three months ago. It was. We were on text with House, I remember. Yeah, the line has moved 20 cents. I still think Dallas under 10.5 at minus 145 has value. I still think the Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East at plus 155 has value. Think of it this way. A plus 190 intimates a 35% chance that you're going to win the division. Plus 155 is 39% chance likely. I mean, this is more than a 4% move to me. Everything that's happened this off season with regard to the Dallas Cowboys. I didn't like them even when they had Tyron Smith in there. But after I dug into what this team was losing when they lost Tyron Smith, it is massive.

Bill, the difference between their rushing efficiency on early downs in the first three quarters of games, which is what I always tend to focus on because that's more predictive than fourth quarters or third down. So I strip those out. I look at early downs in the first three quarters. Over the last three years, when Smith is on the field, these running backs rank number one in EPA per rushing attempt. When he is not on the field, they've ranked number 31 in EPA per rushing attempt. I mean, we're moving from almost the best to the worst rushing offense in the NFL on

these predictive early downs in the first three quarters when Smith is there versus when he is not. The impact that he brings to the passing game as well. When he's on the field, they rank number nine in first down passing efficiency. When he's not on the field, they rank number 30. Dak is worse when he's blitzed without Smith. Dak is worse versus main coverage without Smith. There there are so many different things that you can factor in. When they used Connor McGovern out on the field last year, when he had to fill in, this team shifted from plus 0.21 EPA per attempt

when Connor was off the field to minus 0.03 EPA per attempt when Connor was on the field. Now this guy's going to have to start for the Dallas Cowboys. And the rest of their line isn't great. We still haven't even talked about all the other things about their relying on Zeke, about their wide receivers going down, about the wide receiver core not being as strong to begin with, and about all those defensive turnovers that are highly unlikely to be repeated this upcoming season. I just think that this team is going to struggle compared to their

current expectations. And if they won 11 to 12 games against this schedule with this current roster and that coaching staff, I just would be shocked. So I like them under. FanDuel, there's been a ton of action on the under. It's 10 and a half still, which I think is crazy. It's minus one 45. I'll go further. You made the case and you've been, you've been on this all summer. I think when Smith went down, the Eagles should have become the favorites because Dallas was a little top heavy anyway. I still have real, I really like CD lamb. I think he's excellent, but people are acting like are acting like now that Cooper's gone,

that he's just going to come in and be Chaser Jefferson. He's certainly being treated that way in fantasy. He's a top 15 fantasy guy. I really like him. We still haven't seen it. We haven't seen it from a durability standpoint, all that stuff. The rushing, whatever happened to Zeke last year, I know he was injured, but now you laid out the case. Their offensive line is going to be now convincingly below average. I didn't love what I saw from Dak last year either. We always talk about this, but Dak versus Kirk Cousins, I still

don't really see a difference. And I think Philly's better. Look at Philly, Bill. Look at Philly when this team last season, okay? Obviously, we know Jalen Hurts has played a little bit of 2020 and then all of 2021. In 2021, his top three wide receivers, a true rookie in Devonta Smith, a tight end, and a sixth rounder in year two named Quez Watkins. Those were his top three

receivers in 2021. In 2020, this is based upon targets. In 2020, the top three targets, Greg Ward was number one, an undrafted former college quarterback. Number two was a 30-year-old Zach Ertz. And number three was Travis Ful.J. Brown is going to command out on the field with how defenses now have to play a true number one receiver, it's going to open up even more for the run game in the past game for the Eagles. We know that this coaching staff was very, felt really good about changing up their scheme and went from the most pass heavy, third most pass heavy team in the NFL the first six weeks to one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL down the stretch. And if they're nimble on their toes and can pivot and change things up to what the strength of the team is at that time, I think that coaching is going to be good enough.

The roster is going to be good enough. And now you have a real number one there that's going to help the quarterback even more and open things up further in the run game. I just think that this is a two-horse race. I know it's going to make House sad that we're not including the commanders in this, but this division to me is a two-horse race. And I agree. I think the Philadelphia Eagles do deserve to be favored over what Dallas Cowboys have become. And so 39% chance to win the division. I think it should be higher than that. Joe House has joined us. He didn't want to be left out. And I'm glad he joined us at this specific time because you made some Philly bets, mostly on Sharpe's behest a couple months ago. And House, I just said how I think they should be favored

in the division now. And I agree with Sharpe. Even if you're getting them somewhere plus 145, plus 150, whatever, I still like it because I think they should be like minus 120, minus 130. What'd you get them at, House? Oh, plus odds across the board. Again, because we bet them so early, anticipating some regression out of the Cowboys and then the direction that the Cowboys have proceeded throughout this preseason between the continued lack of competency at the top and the injuries. But I just want- Yeah, we didn't even, Sharp, we didn't even mention

McCarthy. He's actually more likely to be first coach fired than to make the playoffs. Oh, yeah. That's one of House's bets. One of my favorite bets. Yeah. So Philly is plus 155. I didn't even tell you about this house. I did this whole crazy elite player ranking thing that I tried to come up with some sort of scoring system to just see which teams had the best players. I was shocked by how high Philly ranked from an above average talent thing.

They have, I don't know, 10 to 12 guys that you would either call elite or right on the level below elite, especially both lines. And the question for me is Hurts. Hurts' stats weren't terrible last year. He was terrible in the playoff game. And I think that left a little bit of a skunky smell for all of us. But House, I'm going to read you some bets. And you tell me if you get excited about any of these? These are Philly bets, by the way. Philly to be the number one

seed in the NFC. 16 to 1. No? I mean... Sharp, who would you... Gone to your head, who's your number one seed in the NFC right now? Is it Green Bay as like the chalk pick?

To me, I would probably go Green Bay, but this is the exact conference where I'm betting, where I bet a bunch of long shots. And actually, as soon as I saw Tyron Smith go down at like 1230 AM and 1 AM, I was working with my guys on the West Coast and we were jamming up. We were buying in all the Eagles to win the NFC East at plus 170. And we're also betting all of these futures like you just mentioned, Eagles to be the number one seed in the NFC, Eagles to win the NFC just because their path has now gotten easier. The Eagles have had success against House's commanders. The Eagles have had success against the Giants. The one team in the NFC East that the Eagles have struggled against consistently has been the Dallas Cowboys.

And if this Dallas Cowboys version is markedly worse than what it's been in the past and this Eagles version is better and they can finally get over that hill and split or maybe sweep the Dallas Cowboys this season, it's going to go a long way to their ability to get a better playoff seed and have an easier road in the NFC playoff. Well, we see this all the time, right? Tennessee was the number one seed in the AFC last year. And all of us were like, how did that happen? I look at like on FanDuel, Tampa's three to one.

I haven't liked anything I've seen from Tampa. Like Brady just disappeared for 10 days. He's 45 years old. Their offensive line is a mess. Like, I don't know when Godwin's going to be a hundred percent. That team makes me nervous. Dallas is second with odds with five to one, which is just complete insanity. Packers are five to one Rams plus six 50 Schrager. And I covered the case that there might be a little hangover stuff with them. Niners 9-1. That's like, you better really believe in Trey Lance if you like that one, but I don't mind those odds. Arizona 13-1, get them out. Minnesota 15-1, mildly intriguing if there's some Packers regression. And then Phillies 16-1, Saints 21-1. House, you like out of all those, which one do you like? Well, now that you went through it in that way, I really love that Eagles odds.

I didn't realize some of those teams that were ahead of them. This isn't something that I'd looked at or bet on in a futures perspective. But yeah, that Eagles price now, when you say it that way, is a great price. I'm on San Francisco. I like San Francisco this year. I'm not against it. You understand exactly what you're walking yourself into with Trey Lance. is a great price. I'm on San Francisco. I like San Francisco this year. I mean, I'm not against it. You understand exactly what you're walking yourself into with Trey Lance.

It's, it's, uh, you know, it's a risk proposition, but if you believe in Shanahan and you believe in, um, you know, their talent on both sides of the ball,

I'd be interested in hearing how your elite business position ranking fares when they, when you apply it to San Francisco. I think they have enough talent on both sides. And I really believe in Shanahan's ability to maximize. See, I go back to my RG3 days. I saw what Kyle Shanahan did with RG3, a quarterback that can be mobile. And we're not going to be doing run pass options in San Francisco, I don't think. But I do love the idea that Trey Lance

might be running with the football, and it just creates such a confusion element for the defense. That's why San Francisco, I like sort of the best out of those contenders. Sharp made the case a little bit earlier before he came on about how good Shanahan was with Jimmy G, being very careful about how he managed him. And that's the case for the Niners, right? Go ahead,

Sharp. Yeah. I mean, remember RG3 house week one of the 2012 season, I think it was. They were large dogs in New Orleans, in the dome week one of the season, and they put up 40 points. And Washington Redskins at that time won the game outright. And it was like, whoa, here's this new quarterback. We're not sure what we're going to get this kid out of Baylor. And all of a sudden he looked tremendous. And I'm not necessarily saying that Trey Lance is going to do that. Trey Lance opens up a lot of different doors though for Kyle Shanahan with how he calls his offense that Jimmy G couldn't do. And there are things that are going to be limiting by with Trey Lance that Jimmy G could do better that he's not going to be able to do as well with Trey Lance. But there are so many other things that this offense can now do that are

going to make defenses have to study even harder, in my opinion, for how to stop this offense now. I think their defense is tremendous. And they are a team that I was waiting to try to figure out how they're going to look in the preseason, how Trey Lance was going to look in the preseason and what was going to happen here. But certainly they're a team that I was looking to back in the NFC as one of those teams that weren't in the top three, but I think do have a good shot of potentially putting together a very nice season. Can we go back to the Philly for a second?

Here's their schedule. First 10 weeks. At Detroit, week one. Minnesota. At Washington. Jacksonville. At Arizona. No Hopkins. Dallas home, Pittsburgh home, at Houston, home Washington, at Indianapolis week 11. That might be the easiest first 11 games anyone in the league has. They don't have, if you go through those first 11, they don't,

their hardest game is probably at Indianapolis in week 11. And we don't even know what Indianapolis is going to be like. Then it gets a little harder down the stretch. But I think that number one seed bet, that 16 to one, I'm with you, Sharp. If I'm doing futures, I'm done with the futures unless I, you know, I'm parlaying division things or something like that. I want like real odds with the futures. 16 to one for Philly feels like a, feels like a diesel one. I had a couple of Superbowl bets for you guys too, by the way. Oh,

Philly over 10 and a half wins, which is a little bit of an alternate prop on FanDuel plus 140. House. I'm joining that one. KC, Philly, Superbowl. What do you think the odds are?

Ooh, uh, 25 to one. How about 95 to one? Super Bowl, what do you think the odds are? Ooh. 25-1? How about 95-1? What? This is on FanDuel. Casey to beat Philadelphia in the Super Bowl is 140-1. Mahomes

versus Jalen Hurts. So if you're going to bet the 95-1, you might as well bet Casey because they'll be like six-point favorites. The Cincy to play Philly in the Super Bowl. Sharp, what do you think those odds are? A Bengals-Eagles Super Bowl. Oh, well, 115. 180 to one.

Chargers-Philly, 130 to one. Buffalo-Philly, 70 to one. Buffalo Philly, 70 to one. I don't know, man. That's a lot of market disrespect for Philly, it seems. But the thing is, all right, let's talk this out. You're betting on Jalen Hurts, which I think makes all of us nervous. But if they get the one seed,

I feel like the one seed has to be the piece of this. Because the one seed now, I don't have to play in round one. I have a home game round two, home game round three, cold weather. I just need to win two games and I make it. I'm home for both of them. And I'm going against who is the scariest NFC team? There is none.

Unless, Sharp, where do you stand on Green Bay? Because that's the upside team here. Because the defense, two really good running backs. Then the wide receivers are the hmm car. But they've had the success the last couple years. And there's the case for Green Bay is just like bet on the pedigree. The defense is going to be there. Probably a bad division unless Minnesota shows us something.

And just that's the safe pick. So where do you stand? There's no value in the futures market for me on the Packers, but are they likely to win? Like you asked me who I think will win the NFC if I just had to pick a team. I went with the Green Bay Packers. Pedigree is a large part of it. Coach just won 13 games in a row for three straight years since he came to the NFL, though he does have his flaws, still obviously very capable. And Aaron Rodgers is still actually playing pretty good football right now. So making good decisions, helping out his receivers. So I still think that

they are the team to beat in the NFC. But the Eagles, to your point earlier, the Eagles get to play Green Bay at home in Philly. The Eagles get to host a week 17 game against the Saints. That's a dome team playing in Philly. They get to go. They go on the road against some teams that they should be able to beat. And then if Dallas does not have Tyron Smith back for that week 16 game, which, you know, Jerry came out. Initial reports were, well, he might be back in December.

Well, then Jerry came out and said something like, we think he'll be back by the time we would play the San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs again, which is like mid-January. So he might not even be playing in mid-December when they're going to face the Philadelphia Eagles, when Dallas is playing the Eagles. I also bet Philly to have the best record in the NFL at 25 to 1 because of this easy schedule that they play. And because I think the AFC, there's going to be some cannibalism going on in that conference within those teams. And it's going to be hard for one of those teams to emerge with 14, 15 wins. And thus the Eagles might be able to get it done. Well, and then the other thing with the Eagles, I always like teams that crush the draft,

where you get just like, if you can get one or two extra rookies, and in the Eagles case, A.J. Brown, I'm counting as a draft pick, right? Because they traded draft capital for him. And then the defensive lineman they took, by all accounts, seems, Jordan Davis seems like he's going to be one of the top five players from that draft.

And they just completely lucked out that he fell to them where he did. So even just getting two guys that are elite guys, potentially, that they didn't have last year, it didn't seem like they really lost anybody substantial. And then you get another year of Jalen Hurts, another year of Sirianni, the Ringers launching a Philly sports podcast right before the season. I don't know if that, does that help them house or does right before the season i don't know if that does that help them house or does it hurt them i don't know i i i feel like i don't want to jinx it so i don't know i like philly house what is out of care at sharps got a couple futures lists to give us but what is your your favorite bet of the summer the one that you kept texting about

was philly to win the division right so? So what's your second favorite bet? I have the Saints. And it's the Saints win total, the Saints to win the division. And it's just the value, getting close to 4-1 odds for them to win the division when I was able to play it. It was plus odds to get them on their over when I played it. It's not plus odds any longer on their over. But I think there's reasonable continuity. It's not like you say, oh my God, Dennis Allen,

he's going to blow us away. It's an incredible change of coach. But what it is is continuity. And I think that it's essentially if they all believed in what Sean Payton instilled and they're able to run that through, we don't have an answer to Kamara. And if Kamara's available and able to play, I like the weapons.

Michael Thomas is going to play football for the first time in two years. That defense was stout and they own Tampa. So, you know, it doesn't, because of the injuries that Tampa has already experienced, it doesn't take too much more in terms of additional misfortune to befall Tampa for the Saints to be in a good position. So I like the Saints a lot. Where do you stand, Sharp?

Well, I will say the Sharps did bet the Saints plus three and a half in week two against Tampa already. So that they have lines open for week two and they, it was three and a half. The game is in New Orleans. They bet Tampa plus three and a half. It's down to three at pretty much most every spot. Now we have saints to make the playoffs is plus one 18, which I was shocked given how weak the NFC is that they were plus odds. I was surprised by that, but it doesn't seem like you were. No, this has definitely been a buy-on team from the sharper betting groups all off season. So house is in some good company there. You look around the division and this is where you start and end like a lot of these conversations. If one team's going to be better, the other is going to be worse.

Like when we were talking about the 49ers, the 49ers have owned the Rams. The 49ers have done okay against the Cardinals, but the 49ers have not been able to get by the Seahawks. Well, all of a sudden now you take Russ away from Seattle. That's going to help the 49ers a ton. The Saints have owned the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

So if the Panthers aren't quite as good and, and if the Falcons are worse, then like, this is going to be benefited beneficial for the Saints. If they can stay as consistently good against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for them to have some success, they do have a very difficult schedule in my opinion, with some of these non-conference games and non-division games that they're

going to play. And I don't love the fact that Trevor Penning just injured his toe and, and is going to be out for a little while. That just happened in the last preseason game. But I think that this is a team that is justifiable to be a buy-on team. How's DC parallels between Dennis Allen taking over for Sean Payton and Chris Connolly taking over Grantland? No, I feel like I shouldn't say anything. Yeah. Sharp. Dennis Allen is the guy. Dennis Allen to me is a guy I've seen him without his hat on. I have no idea who that guy is.

I recognize him right away every time he wears his hat on the sidelines. But if that guy takes off his hat, I have no clue who that guy is. I couldn't pick him out of a lineup. But Sharp, you were doing pretty heavy in the football scene when he was the Raiders coach. He was abysmal. Yeah. I mean, he was like truly terrible. I don't know what's changed. Like some people are just supposed to be defensive coordinators. And we have no clue what Pete Carmichael is going to do when he has to be the man and make adjustments. He was good in the limited times and opportunities that he had when Sean Payton missed a game or hurt himself or things of that nature.

But doing this for 17 games this season is going to be interesting to see how much Sean Payton was actually driving that ship as opposed to what Pete Carmichael learned from him and then can take over from the passenger seat. Let's take a break and I'm going to give you my favorite division long shot bet. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers,

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Give what up? Really? Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right, coming back, we're talking about the Saints. We've mentioned the Bucs a little bit. The Carolina Panthers, a team that's just been dismissed. But if you actually look at the roster, they have some good players, right?

They have like seven, eight legitimately good players, pretty easy schedule. The questions are Baker, A. Well, Baker made round two of the playoffs two years ago. It's not like he's a complete schmuck. That division, they're 15 to one to win the NFC South. So you're like, all right, what would have to happen for a 15 to one to hit as a thing?

Well, you'd need the Tampa thing would just have to go crazy. Conceivable. The Saints thing, you got Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston as your coach QB combo. Just on paper, if I'm just levitating above that, it's like, all right, Dennis Allen, Jameis Winston as your coach QB combo. Just on paper, if I'm just levitating above that, it's like, all right, Dennis Allen, Jameis Winston. That's a 500 team.

So is that sharp? Is there any path for the Panthers to sneak out like a 10 and seven? McCaffrey stays healthy, 17 weeks in. Baker, chip on his shoulder, better than people think. Matt Rule is going to get fired unless this team makes the playoffs. They have some good players. They had a good draft. Is there any path at all?

Well, there's always, in my opinion, this team is not bad enough where it's inconceivable that something like that couldn't happen. And so the price that you're setting means that there's low odds for you to have to get there. They draw the Cleveland Browns at the right time, week one, right? That's great for them to get that. And as you mentioned, these other teams in their division are problematic, but they're going to have to fare reasonably well enough in some of these very difficult road games. They're playing- Well, wait, hold on.

Can we do their first five and then you do the road games? First five, Jacoby Brissett in Cleveland. Week one. Week two, at the Giants. Week three, home New Orleans. Week four, home Arizona, no Hopkins. Week five, San Francisco at home. Conceivably, it's not crazy to think

that's a four and one. And then some momentum and then we see it every year. There's always the one team that's like, whoa, Panthers, five and oh, who saw this coming? If we're just trying to. There's always the one team that's like, whoa, Panthers, 5-0. Who saw this coming? If we're just trying to figure out who saw this coming team,

I think they're one of the safest bets. Their over-under is only 6.5. Anyway, go into when their schedule gets harder. Yeah, well, it's just all these road games exactly occurring after you get past week five. They have to go to the Rams and take on the Rams. They have to go to Cincinnati to take on the the Rams. They have to go to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. They have to go to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. And then late in the season,

they're going to the Bucks to take on the Bucks. I mean, these are four teams that five teams that should be able to amount good playoff runs this season, if not go deep into the playoffs. So yeah, you can still have a really good season if you lose all five of those games. And I love that stretch after their bye where it's Seattle, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. I mean, three teams that are not supposed to have winning records this season. But I just think that overall, it's going to be a challenge. But hey, if you like backing underdogs and you like backing things that aren't likely to happen often, but if they do, you'll feel really good about what you won and being able to say, look, nobody else was on this team except for me. That's a team that you could get behind. This team started three and oh last season. And it was like, okay, you know, I was trying to say, Matt Rule, let's go coach the year.

And of course, like everything caught up with them when we realized that was against three horrible teams with horrible quarterbacks. And now they're actually playing some difficult teams. I don't have much confidence in Ben McAdoo to call plays for Baker. Baker is an upgrade over Sam Darnold. I mean, that is quite obvious, quite clear. But I just don't know that I love Matt Rule and Ben McAdoo, that combination. House, if I gave you Carolina at 15 to win their division or Jacksonville plus 750 in the AFC South, which one makes your nipples harder? Much, much, much, much prefer Carolina. And to the point that Sharp just made, they came out, I had a Carolina over last year and I

don't remember what that number was. It was a pretty modest number. Um, they started off, their defense was very good. Their defense was like top five across the board and all the metrics that their defense is still good, still top half of the league front seven and, and secondary. But, um, their secondary, especially with shutting teams down. Now, the reason is because we, we came to understand and appreciate they were playing bad quarterbacks to start the season. But, you know, there isn't. I agree with the idea that they have talent. They just have to stay healthy.

They got walloped in the secondary last year at exactly the wrong time. And they went on a losing streak. And that was it for everything. Sharp, give us another future bet. Okay. This is the last one for teams. And then I got like four different player bets. I like the Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs. You mentioned, could this team, could Minnesota take a step forward? I do believe that they will

take a step forward. Addition by subtraction, getting rid of their prior head coach, Mike Zimmer, moving towards the modern day football era where we're going to be passing the ball more on early downs, which helps our quarterback. You look at the numbers in the splits, Kirk Cousins in the second half of games, Kirk Cousins when he's trailing. The numbers are great, but yet they weren't doing that early on. And it was kind of like, are they comfortable? Do they not want to get him involved? Why are they not passing the football early? Why are they sticking with the run? This team was the number four most run-heavy team on early downs in the first three quarters of games.

And it was because this team just simply wanted to keep their defense rested and healthy. That's not the way that you actually win games. Here's a crazy statistic on Kirk Cousins for all the haters out there. Over the last two years, out of 61 quarterbacks, he is the only one to rank top 10 in yards per attempt, EPA, and accuracy. The only one.

Kirk! The only one. My guy! I think this defense, the other thing, the two factors here are the style of the offense is going to be different. Kirk is obviously, in my opinion, capable of doing enough. I know big games, whatever you want to say your thing. Okay, fine, whatever. Kirk Cousins is capable enough, in my opinion, of taking this team to the postseason in a weaker NFC. And then

secondly, it's their defense. The defense is going to have an easier schedule. Last year, they played the number two toughest schedule of offenses and the number three toughest schedule of quarterbacks. This year, I think they're going to face the number 21 schedule of overall offenses and passing offenses. It's the fourth biggest shift in terms of ease of schedule. And also the other thing I think people forget about this Minnesota Vikings team, maybe it factors into week one too, we'll see, their home field advantage. This team has the best ATS in the NFL, thanks to their home field advantage since 2014, when they built that stadium and moved into there. And we did not see that at all in 2020 because there were no crowds. And last season, the NFC

teams played an extra road game instead of a home game. So we saw it slightly less. This season, they get an extra home game in that stadium, crowds at full capacity. I think that, coupled with the coaching staff, coupled with the easy schedule of offenses for their defense to face, will make the Minnesota Vikings a team that can get to the postseason. We bet it at plus odds, but it's still at minus 105, and I think that's still a good bet. I like to make the playoffs. They play the AFC East and the NFC East this year. It's funny. They play home green Bay week one at Philly week two on a Monday night. They could be Owen two coming out of those two games. And I still kind of like them to make the playoffs. And they, and every year there's the own two team that turns it around house.

Kirk cousins. You like that? You like that? I'm all over Minnesota as well. I have their over. I have them to win the division. I think that Kevin O'Connell is going to be transcendent. And it's very weird to say that a whole season could depend on week one. I get how stupid that is. I really think that they intend to come out and beat the crap out of Green Bay in week one. I lay the smackdown game.

I really do think that, I mean, I'm already on that game. I played it. It's in teasers. I got the money line. I've got Minnesota. Sharp told you not to do teasers. He's told me for two years. Minnesota was a great number there. You go from plus two or plus two and a half

through the three, through the seven. It's a great number. You go from plus two or plus two and a half through the three, through the seven. It's a long teaser. It is a strategic teaser for week one. It's a good leg in my opinion. I can't fault him. Here's another thing from Minnesota. Before you got on house, I did the AFC playoff teams I thought would make it

and there's one spot open. In the NFC, I have Philly, I have Minnesota and Green Bay. spot open. In the NFC, I have Philly, I have Minnesota and Green Bay. I have whoever wins the NFC South and I have San Francisco on the ramps. That's six. I think Minnesota, I would have them ranked five or six

out of the six I feel best about. I have no idea who the seventh NFC team is. That's why I was like, could it be Carolina? I don't like Arizona at all. I don't like the Giants or Washington. Chicago's going to be a mess. We'll talk about them for worst record in a second. New Orleans, maybe?

New Orleans a nine and eight? I guess that's who, at gunpoint, I guess I would take New Orleans. Who do you have as the seventh playoff team? Sharp, if you have two NFC North teams, two NFC West teams, is it Dallas at 9-8 or 8-9? Could we get an 8-9 NFC playoff team?

I think Dallas, as much as I dislike them this season, could still slip in there, could still win nine games. They go under 10.5 uh, and make some noise. Uh, they, they still are a sound enough football team that I don't think that they're going to fall to like, uh, depths where they're not going to be in playoff contention late. I can't argue with the saints being tossed around in there. The Cardinals are still a decent team. I have sold them big time. They were like one of my strongest under bets

this off season months ago. The line has shifted too much to even discuss right now as a value. And of course, did you mention the 49ers? That was a team that was in there for you. Okay. There's some, I really wanted to talk myself into Seattle as an out of nowhere team,

but me and Kimes and Danny Kelly just throw their bodies in front of it. They said, no, it's not happening. They're among my favorite worst NFL record bets, Seattle. Let's talk about that quick before Sharp does the player props. I have Bears plus 750 for worst record. I think just for the value of the odds, I think they're going to be terrible. Their offense, I don't know how they're going to, I think they're going to be the team where

just anytime they play a good defense, you just have to go, how are they going to score more than 10 points? I don't see it. They have, other than Mooney, and I don't even love Mooney, but you would say they probably have the worst receivers in the league, or if they don't, they're in the top three. Running backs, mediocre. No offensive line.

New coaching staff, again. I just don't see a path for them to do better than like four and 13. So I have them as like the best value. Who do you have for worst record, Sharp? I did not bet this market, but I certainly think the Seahawks are a team in prime contention for that. I think the Seahawks, the Bears and the Falcons are interesting. Seattle is in a different category to me because Seattle needs to reset massively with everything that they're doing and they should be incentivized to lose games. The Bears are a

team that will struggle due to talent, but they already have their quarterback and they need to be trying to put him in positions to win and have success with every ounce of their being to not give him a horrible experience in his second year as a starter. I think Arthur Smith has a lot to prove in year two coaching the Falcons. And I think Desmond Ritter could show some sneaky upside if he does get inserted in there for Marcus Mariota. There are a lot of teams in the league that are going to struggle. I think the Jets are still going to have some problems. I think the Texans are going to be a little bit more feisty than people think, but they do have some limitations. Well, wait, hold on. You talked about Seattle.

So on FanDuel, Houston's plus 350 for worst record. Atlanta's 4-1. Seattle is plus 750. The Bears have been bet down as plus 750. They started at 10-1. If Seattle gets Jimmy G, which Mike Lombardi on his podcast this week was saying he feels like they are the overwhelming favorite

because everybody knows the Niners have to cut Jimmy G. And Lombardi laid out a case on his podcast that they're waiting until the last possible second because they have to play Seattle in week two. And the longer they wait, if they feel like Seattle is the team he's going to go to, they just want to make it as late as possible so he has as little prep time as possible for that week two game.

If Seattle got Jimmy G as their QB, would that cross them off for you as the worst record team sharp? It would, because I do think he's a, he's a definite upgrade over what they have right now. Here's my only question though. I get it. It, what I'm going to propose makes absolutely no sense financially, but the 49ers are already under the cap right now. Why, why do they have to cut Jimmy G? Because that's built. Because if you're going to turn the team over to Trey Lance, you got to turn the team over to Trey Lance.

You can't have the old guy. The Pats went through this with Mac and Cam Newton last year. If you know, Trey is the guy you got to get the other guy out because he's going to have his supporters in the room. What if Trey, the first game, he goes nine for 30, you know, and then it's like, oh, let's go to Jimmy G's right there. And then, yeah, I don't feel like you can open that. Do you agree with that house?

No, I'm with sharp. I actually think that they should sit on them. They're, they're under the cap and it's an insurance policy. What we know in the NFL is starting quarterbacks get hurt by week eight. half the league has their backup quarterbacks playing meaningful games. So, you know, they have among the very best backup quarterbacks. I have Gardner Minshew as the number one backup quarterback in the entire NFL. And in our hearts. Yeah. Obviously.

But Jimmy G has an insurance policy there. That team wants to go to the Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl. And having two the guy and Jimmy's done a good job of sitting back. The one thing though, that's been weird that I could see as a reason to move on from him is like, Jimmy's been quite distant and not around and not like they've been keeping him out of the room, supposedly like they've been, cause they, they know that they're probably gonna get rid of him. I think he's gone. And I think he, he goes to Seattle or Pittsburgh and it doesn't seem like Pittsburgh's that interested. I'm in on Bears plus 750. The only thing that worries me a little bit

is it looks like they did well with their draft on defense. They got three guys in the draft that I think look like they're going to start for them. And like one of them was a fifth round pick and it just looks like they have a little momentum there. But offensively I think they're abysmal. Sharp, give us your favorite player props. Let's hear them. Okay. And then I'm going to give you one

in house. Do you have a favorite player prop? Of course it involves Carson Wentz. Okay. There you go. What do you got? All right. I got, I got four. The first one is Trevor Lawrence to throw less than 14 and a half interceptions. You can get that at minus one 10 I've seen out there. Um, this is just Doug Peterson in Philly, which is five seasons spanning the Carson Wentz era. His teams went over 14 and a half interceptions only one time in those five years, his teams in total. Lawrence is shifting from facing the NFL's number seven schedule of past defenses to the number 31 schedule of past defenses. And I think this team's going to be in slightly better

game script situation. So he's not going to have to force the ball as much. They also probably are going to have a higher pass rate on first down, which means that a higher percentage of his passes are going to be thrown when the defense is expecting run. Hopefully they'll try to stay out of third downs. He's got Etienne as a little outlet On third downs and stuff like that I saw his 30 plus touchdowns Oh yeah, 17 picks 30 plus touchdowns for him Is plus 390 on Fandle I was checking that out

30's a lot I mean, only like 8 guys got the 30 last year But I don't know Could they unleash Lawrence? I'm in I'm in on his rookie cards I'm in on the Lawrence comeback year And I think we're going to look back

At that Urban Meyer season As like a documentary year and I think we're going to look back at that Urban Meyer season as like a documentary honestly I think that's going to be like a 30 for 30 or the Netflix Untold what was that Manti Teo that's that series Untold I can see like the Urban Meyer Jacksonville Untold there's got to be there's got to be

there's too much good content that could come out of it for there not to be a documentary on that House you like that under for Lawrence Interceptions? I'm sold. I do. I do. Yeah, that's a good one. Okay. What do you got next, Sheriff? You ready for number two?

Yeah. Number two is Najee Harris rushing yards under 1150 minus 115. Solak likes this too. Solak likes it? Okay, then things have been good. Yeah, because no offensive line, right? Yeah, no offensive line. And here's the thing. Najee Harris ranked 43 out of 43 running backs in yards before contact per rush last season. And that's because the offensive line can't do anything. And the scary part about it was they faced seven plus man boxes, which is heavy boxes,

loaded boxes, only 53% of the time. The league average is 73% of the time. They face it at the third lowest rate, yet as a team, they ranked third worst in yards before contact per rush. Those things should not be lining up like that. If you're not going to face very heavy boxes, you should be able to get more yards before contact because there's not as many defenders there for your O-line to block. But the Steelers couldn't block even light boxes at the third lowest rate, third highest rate of light boxes. How are they going to do this year when they're passing the ball less with a worse quarterback and defenses are now trying to play the run instead of the short pass? I just think it's problematic. He was healthy last season.

He played great. They relied on him to do all the carries. I think they're going to split it up a little bit more this season. And I think they're going to probably not have as much efficiency and going to go up against many more heavy boxes this year than last year. And injury factor too. You like that one, House? Yep. I do.

Of course. You know, in general, I mean, we know this this every year but just betting under on player props is usually the road home because they're always skewed because everybody likes going over and I would love to see an experiment House maybe you're the one who should do it

just somebody betting 25 player unders I feel like you would go like 15 and 10 nobody wants to do it it's like anti-American and just be like I am rooting for failure

but I'm willing to do it can I borrow like anti-American and just be like, I am rooting for failure, but I'm willing to do it. Can I borrow some money? All right. We'll talk after. What's your next player prop, Sharp? Okay. The next one is another under. I do have one over,

but this one's another under, and this is Brees Hall rushing yards under 830 and a half. Look, it's been bent down, but it's been at 830 for like three weeks now. And I do not like what I see out of Brees Hall. He's averaging minus 0.37 EPA per rushing attempt. He gained in the preseason 2.1 yards per carry. He's getting hit behind the line of scrimmage far too often. He takes too long to get going. And I think large part of like the high expectations for Hall was that the thought

that they drafted him what like 35th overall something like that 36th overall he was going to come in and be like the de facto number one guy for this team but that's not even the case they've got multiple backs there that Brees Hall is not going to be the starter. And I just think it's going to be very difficult for him to get close to 830 rushing yards. I think on Fando at one point, he might've been number two in offensive rookie of the year odds. And now he's dropped.

He's fifth. I'm so impressed with Pierce on Houston. And I watched the preseason that first drive, but I've also been following, I've been a psycho with preparation this year. He just has it. You can tell from the stories and stuff like the coach that he just gave him the starting job in the first week. He's like, this guy's going to be our starting running back. All the stories from camper, like this guy's incredible. He's 16 to one for rookie of the year house. That's fine. I'm in it it i have already spent money i watched

george pickens play one quarter of football and immediately jumped into that market he's 9 to 1 yeah that jumped he is what a beautiful athlete holy cow knocked my socks off so i had to get in on a little george pickens but goddamn pittsburgh every fucking time this is 20 years of them just pulling out uh wide receivers at the second. Well, they don't have Kevin Colbert anymore. I don't get it. So that may not happen in the future. But yeah, they are.

Kevin Colbert was just so good at identifying receivers. Nobody's ever been better at a random skill than Pittsburgh grabbing receivers. What's your fourth prop, Sharp? My fourth prop, real quick, though. You said you've been a psycho with your preparation. I want to know, how did consuming my 564-page book go for you on your iPad, not printed? Did you get through it in electronic format? Way better on the iPad. House and I are old and we don't read books anymore. I read on my electronic devices. To me, the book, the schedule rest stuff is the most important stuff. That has actually really changed the way that I prepare for the season.

I factored that in now. I have a separate graphic. I'll, I'll get, I'll get this over to you. I did every single team and every single week and what the rest edge that is that week. So you can use it as a cheat sheet. Yeah, you've converted me on that. That rest edge thing is, is just like unassailably effective year after year. There's no question.

All right. Here's one thing I was going to do though, because I want the listeners of your pod to be able to get a chance to look at the book, but there's no way they're going to be able to get through that thing in as much time because the season starts really soon. So I was going to give it to them for just $1. That way they're not wasting their money. Wow. So how was going to give it to them for just $1. That way they're not wasting their money. Wow. How nice is that? What a treat. If you go to the website, if you go to sharp football analysis and enter code, let's say

bill, I haven't done it yet, but I'll make it. Do code BS. Okay. The code will be BS. Just type in BS and you get it for a dollar. That way you don't feel bad that you got it so close to the season and you wasted $30 or whatever. Yeah, skim it. Take a couple of bathtubs with it. Bring in the tub. Just put your reading glasses on and zoom through it like House does.

You sure you can't make the code Mac Jones sucks? You sure you can't do that? That's not going to be the code. Yeah, House, you missed. You missed. We shorted the pats at the top. Oh, wow.

I wasn't afraid to do it. Bill was very objective about it, too. Bill was very objective. The house knows. I am objective on my teams when it's warranted. And in this case, the Patriots are not going to be good this year, unfortunately. Kyle is just going to...

I know it's killing him, but there's just not a huge case. Hopefully, they'll be fun to watch. He's going to be heaping the stuff on me if the Patriots end up being good. I'm definitely not going to stop hearing it from him. I would love for them to surprise us. What's your fourth prop, Sheriff?

Let me go to the last one. The 10th of 10, the fourth player prop. And this is an over. So we get a little bit of optimism. Cortland Sutton receiving yards over 900 and a half. I looked at this. And here's my logic on this. I bet this as soon as they lost

Tim Patrick. And when I look at Drew Locke and Drew Locke out of 33 quarterbacks the last two years, he ranked 33rd in accuracy, 33rd in completion rate, 32 in success rate, 30 in EPA, basically like bottom five in every other statistical category. So I'm not going to share the rest of them. We know that Russell Wilson tailed off some in his career. However, before he hurt his finger, I don't think people realize he was the number one quarterback

in the NFL in yards per attempt last year before he hurt his finger, the mallet finger in his throwing hand. Number one in EPA per attempt, number one in completion rate, number one in passer rating, number three most touchdown passes. OK, now you look at

what has Russell Wilson's receivers done in Seattle. The last two years, his top two receivers cleared this with ease. Metcalf and Lockett, both seasons, the last two years, no less than 967 yards. Most of the time, it was over 1,000 yards. Three of those four times, they went over 1,000 yards. And one of those was a 16-game season, And one of those was a 16 game season. And one of those was when Russ was hurt for several of the games. Now he's going to an offense that is going to be throwing the ball more. They're not going to be hamstrung by Pete Carroll. And, you know, I mentioned Drew Locke and how terrible he has been, and that's the

quarterback for Cortland Sutton, but Drew Cortland Sutton, look at the other quarterbacks that Cortland Sutton has caught passes from in his NFL career. How some of you bet on those quarterbacks and we weren't ever happy ever. 83 targets from Case Keenum, 78 targets from Teddy Bridgewater, 61 from Drew Locke, 59 from Joe Flacco and 25 from Brandon Allen. Yeah. I mean, we were there for most of them. Cortland Sutton has had terrible quarterbacks. Russell Wilson is capable of delivering his number one wide receiver over 900 receiving yards. You obviously have the concern about injury anytime you bet an over, but I think this one is far too low in my opinion.

I think the guy goes for a dime. I think he's over a thousand receiving yards. I have a follow-up to this because this is one of my favorite player props. Eight plus touchdowns for him, plus 200. This is on Fandle. Ten plus touchdowns, plus 470. And if you want to really get ambitious, House, 12 touchdowns or more, 10 to 1.

And if you look at the Metcalf-Lockett results with Wilson, they've always been in that 8 to 12 range. And now that Tim Patrick's out, I could see Sutton being like, I think a lot of people are on him, but it's not inconceivable to me that he could have 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. It's the deep stuff to me. It's a lot of the deep stuff. And keep in mind, Russ had so much chemistry with Tyler Lockett in Seattle, and then they inserted DK Metcalf. Russ has no chemistry with any of these receivers, but what I have heard is that he's really gravitated towards Cortland Sutton more so than Jerry Judy. I'm not saying Jerry Judy can't

have a good season this year, but the style of routes and the style of player that Cortland Sutton is definitely meshes better with the way that Russ plays the game than does Jerry Judy. So what was your favorite player prop before we go? Well, I have to, as usual, thank the great state of South Carolina. They have provided me with inspiration.

You know, I refuse after the Washington football team changed their name to this filthy C word, God bless care of the South Carolina. They come along. They're changing the name of their mascot. And the lead contender is the Cock Commanders. Now, I'm willing to call my Washington football team the Professional Cock Commanders.

And I have here the perfect quarterback for the professional cock commanders and that is Carson Wentz now his number on field right now is 3,450 yards you can get that price it's minus 112 if you divide 3450 by 17 that's 203 yards a game you need Carson Wentz to throw 203 yards a game. You need Carson Wentz to throw 203 yards a game. Now look, on the serious aspect of this, I think Washington has a formidable run pass situation on offense. I think Brian Robinson is going to be a revelation, and especially

the impact that will translate to Antonio Gibson catching footballs out of the backfield and in the slot. Curtis Samuel apparently has a healthy hamstring. I really believe in Scott Turner with options. And Jahan Dotson should be a little bit of a revelation, take some pressure off of Terry McLaurin.

Can Carson Wentz throw for 203 yards a game? I believe so. The offensive line above average. I thought you were going to go under. You're going over on Carson Wentz. 3,400? 3,450.

It's glass half ball time of the year. The professional cock commanders are still an option to win the NFC East as we sit here

at the end of August. Bill Simmons over on Carson Wentz at 3,450 yards at minus 112. You do this every year. That's right. yards at minus 112. You do this every year. That's right.

Yes, I do. You do this every year. First of all, I like them more for worst record at 35 to one than the NFC is. Second, I think you stumbled into the best possible nickname for them, the Washington C-words. Can we just call them that this season? Is that legal? That's fine.

That's fine. I'm going to call them the C-words. I'm not calling them commanders. The C-words and the professional cock commanders. Those would be the two options. Sharp, can you 20 seconds critique that Wentz over and then we'll go? This offensive line is significantly worse than some of the offensive lines he's played behind before. I don't hate the fact that you have optimism for your team,

but I actually would like to see what ends up happening with Sam Howell as their starting quarterback, quite frankly. So, you know, for that reason, I can't fade it, but I'm not certainly not back. Well, the fastest pathway to Sam Howell was me wagering all across the board on Carson Wentz. So that's, if we want to see Sam Howell, let's bet heavy on Carson Wentz. So that's, if we want to tease him out, let's bet heavy on Carson Wentz. 3,563 yards for Carson Wentz last year on the Colts. So you're right. 200 yards a game.

You're basically, if you're betting that over, you're just betting that he plays the whole season. But I don't think any of us are convinced. All right. This was so much fun. And we didn't even talk about how much I love KC Sharp.

I like KC for the division plus 155. I like KC for number one seed at plus 650. I like KC for best regular season record at nine to one. I also like Philly at 25 to one for that. And I like them in the Super Bowl. I'm in on KC, but we can talk about that another time. We can hear you guys during the football season on Fridays on the Ringer Gambling Show. House, stay out of trouble. Sharp, great to see you. Thanks for doing that promo with your book. Go to sharpfootballanalysis.com, put in BS as a code, and you can get the book for $1. Thanks, Sharp. Thanks, House. What does possible sound like for your business? It's the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express.

Terms and conditions apply. Visit mx.ca slash business platinum. All right. This might be the last time we talk about MBA in a Sunday podcast for a while. I had to bring in my guy, Justin Termini. You can hear him with Eddie Johnson, America's favorite odd couple on the serious NBA show in the afternoons.

It's been a fairly boring summer, but there's some takes left. You've been known to have some takes from time to time. There's a couple takes. I asked you if you had anything good. You had a couple that just delighted me. So you start. Biggest underrated summer NBA take that people aren't talking about enough. We talked about KD.

We talked about where Donovan Mitchell is going. What is the sneaky under the radar one you're surprised has gotten more attention? Yeah. Now, first of all, I host a show five days a week, and I don't hit the air one time, Bill, where I'm not ticked off about something. So even if it's like a slow summer, I can get annoyed at something. Now, we've spent a lot of time on this old school, new school media. I don't even know if that's underrated because I think a lot of people are talking about it. I might have to go in the direction of a team like you're a Celtic fan, like Danny Ainge gets ripped all the time for like, oh, well, I almost made a deal, but I didn't quite complete it.

Is there a team that gets linked to more stars than the Miami Heat and don't end up getting said star? I mean, it seems like every single name that's thrown out there, Pat Riley is linked to. Pat Riley doesn't end up getting, but we don't get that same type of conversation of him targeting a guy and not following through and being able to get him. And let's be honest, the Lakers, and we've seen it with LeBron going there, we've seen it with Pat Riley benefiting from in the past, but nobody has an easier job of putting together an NBA team than Jeannie Buss and Rob Palenka. The Clippers now, since they've got competent ownership,

and Pat Riley, where not only does Pat Riley get the benefit of the lifestyle like you do out in LA, you have no income tax. And you know from making a lot of money living in Los Angeles, you pay a hefty income tax. You don't have to deal with that when you go to Miami, so you get all the perks of living in L.A. plus no income tax. And what has their offseason been? I mean, it should be the easiest job in sports to run the Miami Heat.

And Pat Riley is competent and Heelsburg, and they do a good job down there. But they've had a horrid offseason. Well, and then you could go back a year ago, the Lowry thing. I don't think year one of the Lowry experiment did not work. He wasn't in shape. They basically came out after the season

and did that coded Miami Heat language about we want to see our players in awesome shape heading into this next season. But I would say year one of that didn't work. And then the Duncan Robinson for Jesus, 90 million. And he's pretty much untradeable. You're right. So here's why I think they get thrown into stuff. Because there's been a couple of times where they have pulled the rabbit out of the hat. Like the Jimmy Butler just saying, I'm going to Miami. And then having that actually work out for them combined with, they pulled off Dragage

like what, seven years ago? And then Lowry a year ago. So I think people feel like they're in the mix, but those might've just been isolated situations. Well, I laugh as well at them saying like, oh, well, Bam out of bio hasn't been thrown into any deal. And I understand you couldn't make it work because of the Simmons thing, where they could be on the same roster. But if they could get rid, Bam out of bio hasn't been thrown into any deal. And I understand you couldn't make it work because of the Simmons thing

where they could be on the same roster. But if they could get rid of Bam out of bio, they would. Because you think about Pat Riley's history. Think about how he's won all his championships, either as a coach, an executive, as a player. As a player, he's on that 72 team, right? 1972 team. It's Wilt, it's Jerry West.

Okay, so you got two of the top, what, 10 to 12 players in the history of the sport on that team. Then you go to what he won as a coach. It's Kareem and it's Magic Johnson. Okay, then you go as to what he did as an executive. He's only won, and I won't even throw Dwayne Wade into the mix, but we can still say that it's just been Shaq and it's been LeBron James because Wade's probably around 35, 40 if you're ranking historical players. But all those other guys have been top 10, 12, 15 players. So he doesn't have any of those on his roster right now. So clearly he's interested in Kevin Durant.

Right. And there you look at last year that the Butler thing was interesting too. That was a lot of people that I know, people that I respect are like, he absolutely should have taken that three. I'm just telling you as a Celtic fan, if he's going to the basket, I think he either scores or gets fouled. They have

all the momentum at that point. And I was actually relieved when I saw him pulling up. I didn't think it was going to the basket, I think he either scores or gets fouled. They have all the momentum at that point. And I was actually relieved when I saw him pulling up. I didn't think it was going to go in. I just didn't. I don't think he's a very good three-point shooter. I felt like those... I was psyched that he wasn't just driving it out Horford. But I wonder, like,

you think they made the finals in 2020. They had that moment. They almost pulled off one of the most incredible comebacks ever last year in that game. They're down, what, was it 14? I don't remember. I blocked that out of my mind.

And it's the same roster as last year. I guess the one thing is they've convinced Oladipo to come back. Oladipo's now 30. He really hasn't been Oladipo for four years. I thought offensively he was a liability for them. Defensively, he was great. Offensively in the playoffs, a liability. And that's basically their big move,

crossing your fingers and hoping Oladipo goes up a level. Yeah, not only that. So first of all, Kyle Lowry is now, what, 36? So he's another, and he looked unplayable

towards the tail end of that. So, you know, that's serious. He was unplayable. He wasn't even playing basketball. He was flopping around. And then you look at P.J. Tucker's not coming back. He was a big part

of what they were doing. So, all right, we'll get Ty Hero back healthy. But I thought they were one of the historically worst one seats that we saw last year. I thought the road that they had to get to the conference finals was putrid. I mean, Atlanta was not good, and Atlanta was banged up in the first round. They get Philadelphia. There's no Embiid. Then they get to the Celtics, who really should have won that series of five games, and they got stretched to seven. But I thought the road that they had even to get to the conference finals was very smoke and mirrors.

And now to bring back a team which I think is older and worse, I don't put them in that same level as the upper echelon in the Eastern Conference. I think they're somewhere around four or five with no shot of reaching an NBA finals. Yeah, I did a pod a couple days ago and I had them third and I just kind of didn't think about it. But when you texted me, I really started thinking about it. And I think the Celtics and Bucs have to be considered above everyone else in the East now.

I don't think Miami can be considered because the Celtics got better. We'll see what happens with Gallinara. I know it turns out it wasn't an ACL, so that's a relief. But the Celtics, all the experience they got, adding Brogdon, just their younger guys getting a year older. There's no way.

It's them and the Bucs, and then it's a little drop. And then Philly, I think, is the wildcard team. Because we don't know what we're getting from Harden. We don't know if he's closer to three years ago Harden than maybe we're expecting. The day the news that Durant broke, that he was staying, Eddie and I got into

a massive fight because he thinks that Boston and Philadelphia are on equal footing. So he thinks Brooklyn's the best team in the Eastern Conference. Then he goes with Milwaukee number two. Brooklyn? Yeah, Brooklyn. He thinks they're number one. Now, I think they're a top three. I have them three with Durant coming back as long as they take the regular season seriously, which is a big question mark. But if they take the regular season seriously, I'll give them a top three nod.

Then I think it's those three teams. And then I think there's a drop off before we get to Philadelphia. He thinks they're on the same level of Boston. I don't. Now I could see that happening if Harden's the Harden that we saw two years ago when he first got to Brooklyn, or if he's the James Harden of Houston. But if we don't get there, and it's hard to turn back the clock. Once you lose that step, you get out of shape, it's hard to get back to what you were. If he does that, okay, I'll put Philadelphia on that tier. But unless he proves he can stay healthy and he's committed, I don't have Philadelphia there. Yeah, I'm trying to think other times in NBA history when somebody has tailed off as a superstar and then recaptured it three years

later. I don't really have one. I feel like this is a good combo to try to figure out the legacy of that. I don't really have one. The Philly thing, I thought Melton was a good add. I actually like that they kept Tybal.

I think because of the vaccination stuff and the fact that he sucked in the playoffs, it seemed like he was out there for anybody to grab. And I thought it would have been a mistake to trade him because I still value defense. We see it every year. Like that guy defensively can be on a Final Four roster. So I thought that was smart they didn't trade him.

They still have, you know, Harris's contract is a little more tradable than it was last year, but we'll see. Well, let me ask you on that because I think they were drafted almost back-to-back, but Ainge got a lot of crap for taking Grant Williams' passing on Thibel. Yeah, including for me. When you're watching that Milwaukee series, you're like,

all right, well, maybe I'd rather have Grant Williams than Thibel. He's a Celtic fan. Would you rather have Thibel or would you rather have Grant Williams? I'd rather have Grant Williams because of how he the Celtic fan. Would you rather have Thibel or would you rather have Grant Williams? I'd rather have Grant Williams because of how he matches up with Milwaukee. But with that said, Grant Williams was bad the last two rounds. So I

want to know what happened to him those last two rounds. Was it just all the miles they put on him or whatever you mentioned? So Eddie thinks I mean, listen, this is going to be the first time either of us thinks Eddie is an insane person. Because he is. He's legitimately insane.

He thinks Brooklyn is the best team in the East. That's an actual Eddie Johnson opinion? Yeah, it is. And see, the issue with this, and I'm glad we have this on audio now, because now at the end of the season, he might try and deny it. Right. He does do that. And that'll turn into a massive debacle where, like I said, there's major news breaking. And instead of Eddie

and I breaking down the major news, we're fighting over the fact that he said something that he says he didn't say. But yes, as of right now, and Eddie's known to change his mind, he has Brooklyn as the number one seed. And I can't do that just based off not knowing if they're going to treat the regular season seriously, not knowing the health of Kyrie Irving. I think he's

averaged 55 games since he's entered the league. So if he's not going to be out there on the floor, and that's the other thing when you get into the small skill thing, well, guess what? A skill is actually staying on the floor. I'm really confused by the perception of Kyrie Irving versus how it compares to the facts. Because the facts are, for the last five years,

he has not been an impact guy in the playoffs at all. The last time he was truly an impact guy in the playoffs was the 2017 playoffs, which he was awesome. Then he has not been able to stay in the floor, even dating back to Duke. I mean, really like the 15, 16, 17 range, and he got hurt in the 15 playoffs, but 16 and 17, I guess, are the only two times we've seen him healthy, durable, and productive on a good team. We haven't seen it in five years that nobody seems to care about this. He's 30 years old now. He is who he is. Wait, so you're telling me the only time we've seen Kyrie Irving productive has been when he's played arguably the greatest player of all time?

Think about it. He's been like, oh, he's the number two on a championship team. But it's not like you're the number one. And no insult to say like a Dwayne Wade or a Dirk who were the number one on championship teams. No insult to those guys. But he wasn't the number two to one of those guys. He was the number two to arguably the greatest player of all time. Since then, he's done nothing in the postseason. And like, I know that Tatum made some comments about Superstar and he's going back and forth

with Taylor Rooks during that Bleacher Report interview. And they're debating whether Damian Lillard is one. Lillard to me is the better player and part of its leadership, part of its durability and the other stuff I'll take my chances even if Kyrie is slightly more skilled and it's not about one-on-one. Of course, like Kyrie, it's about five-on-five. I've had this discussion in the past before when it comes to like Magic Johnson and Larry Bird and like even Allen. Allen Iverson might be able to beat Magic or Bird one-on-one. Kobe Bryant probably beats Magic or Bird one-on-one, but who's the better NBA player? It's Magic and Bird because

they make their teammates better. They fit into a team concept. Kyrie Irving doesn't do that. So, you know, Bill, if I could also as well point this out, remember that final play where Kyrie's dribbling right before Tatum finishes the layup uh at the end of game one Kyrie stops exactly so uh not only the defensive play but go back on offense because Eddie did bring up a good point on the hero ball play yeah yeah yeah it's the hero ball play so many people and I thought this initially as well, many people are like, well, Kyrie, you know, the crowd shouldn't get on his case in game two, right? Because Kyrie like torched him in game one, he scored a bunch of points, I forget the number. But Eddie brought a good point the next day. He's

like, no, the crowd actually won. Because on that final offensive possession for Brooklyn, Kyrie is like, I'm going to show them. And he blocked everybody else out around him. He dribbles till there's about in circles until there's about three seconds left in the shot clock, kicks it out to Durant, who's draped by Tatum. Tatum can't get the shot off. So it was actually, one, the crowd getting in his head, and two, just a horrible display of dribbling because he felt he could do it all himself at the expense of his team. You look at his last, so since the 2017 finals, he's played in 22 playoff games

over the next five seasons. And he's 22, five and five are his stats, right? People seem to think he's a superstar. Look, he made the biggest, one of the biggest shots in the history of the finals in 2016 in a game that was a rock fight. Nobody was making anything.

And then he makes this three. He's great. 2017, that Cavs team was incredible offensively, but it was five years ago. It was 2017. People are judging him now based on like the Twitter clips and the YouTube clips and some of the highlights versus what he was, which was they got swept. He was healthy. He played, he had no injuries. He was a hundred percent healthy. He is not to me. It's like when you're talking about, all right, top threes and you just go through and the Brooklyn top three is KD 34, who is still one of the best five tape players in the league. But then you have Kyrie who just has not proven he's a reliable regular season guy or the same kind of elite, elite player performer.

And then Simmons who doesn't want to play basketball and who hasn't played since May of 2021, which by my calculations is 16 months ago. And we don't know if he's playing now. He still has a back issue. And that's your big three? I mean, think of the juxtaposition. Itosition it's durant who i think we both agree probably loves basketball as much as anybody that's ever played and then it's two guys i'm not sure who wants to play less is it kairi or is it is it ben simmonson and that's the point about like wanting to play when all of a sudden did kairi become the guy that's like going to be the torchbearer for kobe bryant because what's the big like if you're going to be like, what if I think of Kobe Bryant,

even as a Celtic fan, like the one thing I respected about him and the reason I loved him is because he loved to play basketball. Like it was his sole focus and he played through anything, whether it was an injury, whether it was an incident in Colorado. And Kyrie is kind of- How about his Achilles? He blew out his Achilles and shot the free throws. Exactly.

And Kyrie's the complete opposite. And this is supposed to be the torchbearer for him where he does everything he can to avoid playing basketball. It's insane. Yeah. Kobe needs to somehow send a message from the afterlife that he needs somebody else to carry the torch for him. You have Devin Booker, Tatum. Yeah, Devin Booker's a perfect one.

Both those guys love to play. Devin Booker's a perfect one. The Nets right now have the third best odds on FanDuel to win the title, which I just, I honestly don't understand it because think of all the variables. You have the best part of the team

openly tried to get the coach and GM fired, whether that was some sort of tactical move to get traded, I don't know, but that was the thing that happened that he requested the dismissal of his coach and GM.

See that. You have Kyrie, who is basically a 50 to 60 game a year player. And then the playoffs is pretty one-sided and not a defensive force at all. You have Simmons.

I have no idea what to expect from him. We have no idea how he's going to respond to pressure. You have Curry coming off ankle surgery. You have Joe Harris coming off an entire missed season. And then a bunch of young guys who are improving, and the media microscope of just every move, quote, everything is going to be dissected. And somebody like Kyrie if I was like, if you could tell me this is actually going to be great or this is going to be an absolute disaster,

I would go absolute disaster. You didn't even mention what their center position is like as well. I mean, I think they need to shore that up. I mean, what is it right now? It's Nick Claxton, who's good. But I mean, you look at the other centers on these competing teams,

the other bigs, Giannis and Robert Williams, pretty good at Warford. What are they going to do in that spot? And Kyrie, let's see. I mean, now he understands maybe that nobody around the league wants him, that he's playing for a contract.

And if we do get a focus, Kyrie, I do love talent, but the question is the focus. So one more thing for you is just a lot of Donovan Mitchell attention. Yeah. And I think you and I

are a little bit aligned on this where I get it. I get it for the Knicks. There's a credibility that comes with them. He's performed in big playoff games. At least when you're in a toe-to-toe

against some of the other best offensive players in the league. It's a little like Damian Lillard. It's a nice guy to have on your side when you're playing Denver and Jamal Murray

has hit 10 threes in the first three quarters. And at least you have your guy that you hit 10 threes in the first three quarters. And at least you have your guy that you can kind of get in the gunfight with. At the same time, the price for him, first of all, I don't know who the Knicks are competing against. Even Cleveland, I think, kind of kicked the tires just to make it seem like they were interested because they wanted to make sure the Knicks didn't steal them. I have no idea who else they're competing against. And when you look at the other offers and it's like,

all right, Miami's got Tyler Harrow, the Duncan Robinson contract, nobody wants, and they can come up to two picks and they're spread out. That is not, you don't get Mitchell for that, but yet I don't think the Knicks should be giving up all of their picks for

him either. It's somewhere in between. Yeah. Plus is Danny going to give, is Danny Ange going to give somebody to Pat Riley, right? That Riley wants. I think that relationship is pretty interesting. Yeah. That's in between. Yeah. Plus, is Danny going to give somebody to Pat Riley, right? That Riley wants. I think that relationship is pretty interesting. Right. Yeah. That's not happening. Yeah. And then you get nervous like, all right, if Pat Riley does a trade with Danny Ainge, maybe Pat Riley is going to win that trade.

If I'm like saying, all right, Danny Ainge already picked on Minnesota, right? And Minnesota might be the worst run organization over the last 20, 30 years. Now he's going to go, Danny Ainge is one of the best executives we've ever seen, never loses a deal. Run through the Danny Ainge deals. He never loses. Then he deals with Minnesota, who's a horrible organization. Granted, Tim Conley is a good executive. He came over from Denver.

And now he's going to deal with New York, who's made bad decision after bad decision. Here's the reason why I'm like you, what you said at the outset, is I can see it from New York's perspective. It's because as low as I view Mitchell as like a superstar and a number one option, he can't be a number one. He could be a number two or a number three. But have they even had a guy outside of Carmelo as good as Donovan Mitchell the last 20 years? I mean, it's Carmelo. It's maybe Amare Stoudemire for one year. Maybe it's Julius Randle for one year. So they really haven't had a player like him in 20 plus years.

I'm trying to think. I guess like early 2000s Sprewell, but even he wasn't as good as Mitchell. Yeah, look, I think the best thing to have is time because if you're Utah, you are now all in on this. We want to be the team in the West other than San Antonio that's tanking the hell out of the season. The closer we get to opening day, you don't want Mitchell there to

start the season. You're kind of in bed with your roster. They could audible, they have some good veterans and maybe go, all right, well, we couldn't trade them. So, but it's, it just feels like there's been an unspoken agreement on both sides. I got to say, I was pretty intrigued by Cleveland getting involved. And I know having Colin Sexton involved in the trade is really hard because he's a restricted free agent. But I was trying to figure out how would that work? How many picks could they get thrown in? And then trying to figure out the Garland-Mitchell backcourt, I think, with you have all these

big guys that could have protected them on defense. And then these two scores, the yin and yang of that. I think I was intrigued by that Brunson and Mitchell with no center help protecting them. I'm not as excited. No. And then you got, uh, you know, Brunson who's trying to get away from Luca cause Lucas got the ball too much. And now you're just going to join another guy in Donovan Mitchell's the same type of player, but he's not nearly as good. I'm not sure even how Brunson would feel about that. Yeah, Brunson, it's like a family decision, at least partially for him, right? It's like he grew up with World Wide West

and his dad's a coach and all that. And it's like, well, family trumps everything. I love my family. As people who have listened to this podcast know, my daughter's been on 30 times. My dad's been on the entire time I've had my podcast. Even my mom came on once. That wouldn't be my determining factor for what my best basketball decision is.

If I were him, the more I thought about it all summer, it's like, man, you left Luka Doncic to go to a Knicks team that other than one playoff round in 2013 has not been relevant since Y2K basically. And they didn't even give you the max. They gave you $100 million and you did it because it was... But man, I just wonder if two years from now he's going to be looking at that one going, oh, why did I do that?

Yeah, and we don't even know if he was allowing Dallas to match that or if North Cuban might have. But yeah, I mean, you're like, that's a good point. You're leaving an all-time great who's just started to hit like his apex. You're leaving a team that went to the conference finals this past year, right? Despite even not having Tim Hardaway Jr. who you're going to add back into the mix as well. And to me, personally, I think he left one of the better owners in the sport where Cuban,

when push comes to shove, Cuban's going to go out there. I know they haven't had success recruiting guys, but I think kids beloved around the league. I think Luka plays a brand that you're going to want to play with, and Cuban's going to spend and gives these guys everything they want. So yeah a checkered history. I guess like Carlos Boozer, maybe it turned out the best because he left early LeBron, went to Utah. That team with him and Williams, those teams won playoff series there for a few years. So you can't really kill them on that. But for the most part, I want to stay with the franchise guy. All right, before we go,

your guy, Eddie. He was hashtag we good the whole playoffs last year. Hashtag we good, we good, we good. And then Dallas upsets them in one of the strangest game sevens in the history of the league. Like really, it's in the top, top tier of what the F happened for game sevens. There's been some COVID stuff that's come out since. That clearly

impacted them in some way. We'll never know. But we have never seen a team just come out and take a dump like that at home in a game seven. And it really paves the way for the Warriors. It makes their next round easier and all this stuff. Looks like Aiton's going to leave. All of a sudden, Aiton's coming

back. They match the offer. Oh, we're going to match it all along. There's no question. Oh, okayiton's coming back. They match the offer. Oh, we're going to match it all along. There's no question. Oh, okay. Now they're back. And there seems like there's some Suns optimism again. What is Eddie saying? So now it's hashtag,

it's hashtag, we still good. We still, it's hashtag, we still good. We still good. So that's what you're going to see for the upcoming season.

We had Monty Williams on the show a couple of days ago. And we asked him about the relationship with Aiton and asked him about the Durant trade rumors and whether like because I think Jalen Brown. I mean, listen, maybe Brad Stevens has to sit down with him. Maybe Monty Williams has to sit down with Mikhail Bridges and with Aiton. He says he doesn't because they were never legitimate rumors. And he said he hadn't yet. But I think there's a little bit of like almost a Super Bowl hangover that they're gonna have to deal with because two years in a row i mean they

go deep into the they go to the finals they come up short then they come back next year take the regular season seriously win 64 games and now they've got to get like recharged for the regular season again i'm not sure that they're gonna have a great regular season and monty even told this bill he said and you and i like love when teams are chasing the record wins, right? I happen to think the cutoff is 67 and the championship to be an all-time great. I think I heard you say 66. Yeah, 66, 67 range, I think, is where you need to be.

So I love when teams do that. That's why load management just ticks me off. But Monty said, hey, maybe last year we should have won 59 games instead of 64 just to make sure my guys were a little bit healthier heading into the postseason, particularly Chris Paul. I think we're going to see a lot of that with Paul this year. Well, they have a couple of problems.

One is there's a blueprint now with old Chris Paul. And we can say he's past his prime Chris Paul because he is. He's in his late 30s now. And New Orleans exposed something in that series that just kind of helped that team unravel, it felt like. They just pressured him the whole time. They made him work. And the fact that he was giving up the ball

over dribbling up the court against Alvarado, he just wouldn't have done that 10 years ago. So he should be at a different stage of his career. He's in the 2005 draft. There's barely anyone left from any draft in 03, 04, or 05. So you have that. There's the Cam Johnson. They got to figure that piece out because Cam Johnson, they're going to have to pay in a year. So it's a little bit of a last hurrah with this. And we haven't seen Sarver really spend like that. But I'm looking at the Fando odds for the West. Gold State's plus 320.

The Clippers are plus 340. So they're basically almost the co-favorites. And then it goes Phoenix plus 450. And then it drops. For some reason, the Lakers are 9-1. As I've said, I will happily book all Lakers to win the West bets. Just email me. I'll take them.

But you go into that Dallas 12-1, Minnesota 15-1, New Orleans 26-1. Phoenix plus 450. I got to say, it does not seem like great odds. I feel like they missed their window is where I'm leaning. They had this two-year window. It's closed.

The Clippers are now going to take their spot, I feel like. Where do you stand on that? Yeah. I love continuity. That's one of the reasons I think the teams from the 80s would beat the great Durant teams in Golden State. Style of play is a little bit different, but those guys knew where each other was going to be on the floor. Today, we don't see teams sticking around enough. These teams stuck around. I mean, they've made two deep runs.

This would be their third one, but I also think that there's something to like adding that fresh blood where you get a guy and like, oh, you've already won a championship. Well, we've added like, I don't know, James Worthy, let's get a championship for him. Okay, we've added Malcolm Brogdon. Yeah, we've added Malcolm for you guys, although Celtics don't have a championship yet. Right. I get to motivate them. But like, I always think you need to add maybe a guy or two like that. They didn't do that. And I don't know what you said about Denver, but Denver's healthy too.

And if they looked that good last year with their second and third best player out, and now their defense has improved a little bit with some of the deals they made, I think you've got to throw them into the mix too. I like them as well. And the Porter thing, each team's got their X factor, right?

For the Suns, it's what's left in Chris Paul's tank at this point. Where is he at his career? Because if he's deteriorating every year, I think we're just going to look at two years ago as that window. And a series that came down to maybe four plays against the Bucs, right? Four plays, they had to make two of them. They didn't make any of them.

I still think I'd take Dallas seriously, with Hardaway's coming back. Luka at some point is going to wreak havoc. I don't know what year that's going to be. So they're in there for me. And then Golden State, I think is pretty focused on there's some immortality at stake for them. And then the Clippers thing, this is year four for them where nothing has really gone right. And now they have this absolutely loaded roster and they probably have, I would say, the biggest eye of the tiger factor. We're just like, can we be good once?

Yeah, because we talked about Kyrie at the beginning, right? Like how he's not really held accountable for the lack of success. And Kawhi's got two championships as the lead dog at the second stop there at the very least in Toronto. But like, all right, so he's been there for three years. He wasn't really even a part of that team that made it to the conference finals where he got hurt and didn't end up playing. But they haven't done anything yet. They're a little bit to me like Tatum and Brown on steroids. So I think you should have success with them.

Plus they're arguably one of the deepest teams. I think at least in the last 20 years, we used to have Hall of Famers coming off the bench for the Celtics, the Lakers and the Gatys. We don't have that anymore. But this is as deep as a team as I can remember in a while. Yeah, I think they're going to be good too. It's weird when your biggest concern is you have too many guys. That's usually a good problem. But I do wonder, with all the guys they have in that roster, how's everybody going to be? They basically have 11 guys that can play and guys who are pretty willful veteran dudes who are used to getting how they want. Interesting.

All right, before we go, the new media versus old media. Where's Eddie? Eddie's not old media. He's not new media. He's like his own media, right? Oh, no. Eddie is old media. So we're allowing Eddie in old media? Oh, we are. Eddie doesn't want to be a part of new media. I didn't know if he had a third,

like when Ross Perot ran for president as a third party. Is Eddie on a third party? Well, he's allowed to go back and forth, I guess, just depending on like the opinion. But he is like old media. And I'm not sure if like Kendrick Perkins has come out and said he's old or new, but Eddie is like nominated him for old media. So Perk is old media as well. Eddie, Eddie, every like you want to get Eddie like fired up. All you have to do is throw Draymond's name out there and Draymond will go nuts. Eddie will go nuts. Now, he gets me riled up too.

And part of it's like the hypocrisy. I just lay out hypocritical. First of all, you got him, his teammates, his coach, his, I guess, now wife are telling everybody in Boston that they're not allowed to swear. Meanwhile, he's in Memphis flipping everybody off just a couple of weeks prior, okay? Then he goes to a parade where, all right, there's a lot of kids sleeping at 10 o'clock at night when they're like screaming, bleep you, Draymond in Boston during the NBA finals. Everybody is skipping school in Golden State watching that parade. He's swearing like crazy there. Then he goes on Comedy Central. He's swearing like crazy again there. Then he goes after Kendrick Perkins with a racial slur. And a week

later, he's saying that an ESPN anchor is not allowed to call Kevin Durant emotional. So what's worse, calling somebody emotional, calling somebody a racial slur like he did to Kendrick Perkins? Then he's saying like, oh, all I do is break down X's and O's. You got to learn how to like talk the game. Okay. So that's what his accusation with the old media is. Yet like his turning point for the NBA finals was, well, I pulled down, you know, Jalen Brown shorts. And then he said like, oh, that didn't upset me. So that was the turning point. It wasn't X's and O's. It wasn't an adjustment. The guy who only breaks down X's and O's and teaches the game says the turning point was emotional. Then he's going like, you can't compare errors. I think

it's stupid to compare errors with a tweet. Two minutes later, he then goes, oh, but we beat the Jazz of 1998 by 40 points and the Bulls by 20 points. Then a week later, he's got Kyle Kuzma's podcast and they're breaking down like point guards of today and how the point guards of the past couldn't keep up with him. So Draymond says it's stupid and dumb to compare eras. And to me, I think he's compared eras more than anybody in sports media so far. That was an impressive rant. Was it fair? Listen, here's the thing with the eras. Each era is different. And the job as you're comparing players from the eras is to compare their impact in the era. Right? 100%.

So like Isaiah Thomas, who is absolutely incredible and is still, to me, probably the best pure point guard I've ever seen. His era was a little different and it was way more physical. And it was way harder physical and it was way harder for a little guy that we had all, we didn't have any of the hand-checking rules back then and little guys got punished. And what he did in the eighties,

there's no way to take stats and then twist it so that we can then, you know, put some sort of thing and be like, no, these are what his stats would look like. It's just different. So you just have to say like, all right, this guy was the best player on two title teams during the era of thing and be like, no, these are what his stats would look like. It's just different. So you just have to say like, all right, this guy was the best player on two title teams

during the era of Bird and Magic and MJ, and they won two title teams. That has to be in the first sentence of when you talk about the greatest players and when he's in there. Bill, it's why we had that conversation, I think, and me, you, and Eddie are all on the same page on this. We did this out at the NBA Finals when we saw you. This all NBA

stuff where they're talking about eliminating it, I hate it because the fun part of this is like, okay, well, how many all-NBA first teams did Chris Paul make? Well, now we can go back and we can see how many did Isaiah make? How many did Bob Cousy make? Because that's the only way we can compare them. All right, well, Bob Cousy made 10 first-team all-NBAs as a guard. That tells you he was one of the top two guards for 10 years during his career. Hal Greer's another one. Hal Greer had a bunch of all NBAs

where it's like, this is why he was probably, him and Sam Jones behind Jerry West as the best two guards for an entire decade. And here are the all NBA teams that tell us that. Exactly. That's how you compare guys. Not to like, who's faster from baseline to baseline, who's got better handles. No, it's how did you compete against your peers? And the gap between like, say, Bob Cousy, who's taken a lot of heat this offseason, is far greater to the next point guard of his era than it is between like, say, Steph Curry and the next greatest of his era, which I guess would be Chris Paul. When Kuzi retired, he was the most important player of the first 20 years of the league. It wasn't

debatable. He was the first entertaining player the league ever had. You can't judge that by field goal percentage because nobody... They just fired it up. It was like hockey. They were just throwing shots up. I think the center thing is stupid to me because ultimately,

who'd you think was better in Beter or Jokic? They both played center. Don't give me the positionless basketball at that. Giannis was probably a center, but he did play enough forward. Where it got confusing for me is the swing guys, like somebody like Jalen, who I think was probably a guard, but we don't think of him as a guard. But if you looked at the Celtics lineup where they had one guard, Jalen and Tatum and a forward and Horford.

So that's where maybe there should be some sort of swing position that they could add or you should have a little more malleability. But the center and the guards, Chris Paul's a guard.

You know, that's the only thing. I haven't figured out how to solve that one yet. Yeah, 100%. I'm with you. But listen, you want to create

a separate thing where you rank the top 15 players, add that to the media ballot. I'm fine with that, but just don't. Oh, an addendum. Yeah, that's good. top 15 players. Those are ranked. They're computed together. Then in the offseason, it's like an official list that each year can be put on the official awards ballots. And everybody, so that way, 30 years from now, we can go back and go like, all right, these are the two best guards. These are the second two best guards, blah, blah, blah. But now, all right, here's how we rank the top 15 players. I wish we had playoff MVP over what

they did with that Eastern Conference, Western Conference MVP. Who cares? Who cares who were the semifinals MVPs? I don't know why they did that. I would have done playoff MVP and I would have done playoff all NBA teams with like 10 games minimum or 12 games minimum, whatever. Because then it's like Wiggins, if you're probably doing that, Wiggins is probably a second team playoff All-NBA for his performance and how he got better in the defense. And your goal is to do a snapshot of what happened in the season so that 30 years from now, they can look at it and you kind of captured it correctly. That was the biggest thing with my book. I'm going through the late 50s. I don't have a lot of ammo to look at. And those All-NBA teams were super

important. So I wish we captured that better now. Yeah. And the other thing, though, is like some of the stuff, the way it's voted on in the back of my mind, like I have, and you did it in your book, it's like, all right, certain awards you don't recognize. I'm not recognizing the 2015 Finals MVP. For me, that's Steph Curry. You already had

one. Then you go back to 1997 with Jordan and Carl Malone. I'm not really recognizing that for Carl Malone. Same thing with 1975. And that's the reason we talk with all these players like Draymond in the new media. Oh, the players should vote. Okay, well, ask Rick Barry who should vote. But in 1975, because Rick's

not popular with the players because his job is to compete against them, not be buddies with them. He finishes fourth behind Bob McAdoo. I think it was Kareem. Yeah, Kareem. Dave think it was Kareem Hayes and Kave Cowans or Kareem. And he's fourth. Well, he probably should have won the award.

And if he didn't win the award, he was no worse than second. But the player's going to handle the responsibility. There was some bad racial stuff, too, with that award. And the players voting in the late 50s, early 60s, where you basically had two blacks on every team. And there's some Russell ones where that are just appalling. Yeah. The players voting, look, if you're going to say the media has agendas, I would argue the media is being held more accountable in 2022 than ever before. You think about some of the shit that happened, like Pedro, somebody, would they leave him off the MVP ballot that one year

when he had that iconic night season? And some writers are like, I'm not voting for pitchers. That stuff never happens anymore. And for the most part, you look at the all-NBA teams and the MVP voting,

it's pretty chalk. Everybody's afraid to make a mistake now. But I think that's also an issue. So I like that, but I also don't like the fact that I have to be intimidated in voting a certain way. And I'm not going to, for example, I didn't have LeBron on my all NBA team this year. I didn't have him on one of my three all NBA teams. The combination of not playing enough games and then also not winning. All right. So why should

it be on all NBA team? Guy like Jalen Brown, I think I snuck him into my third team all NBA. I might've been one of four people to vote for him. I'm sorry. His numbers might be a little worse, but he played more games, and he might have sacrificed some of those numbers so the team could actually win, and he played defense. But people, oh, well, on social media, they'll say, these are the idiots that didn't vote for LeBron,

or these are the idiots that didn't vote for this guy or that guy. I don't like the pressure in that regard. Yeah, I'm with you. I think I ended up voting for LeBron for third team only. And I didn't feel great about it. And I really agonized over it because I didn't feel like he played enough games.

But I just didn't feel like anybody took the spot. I had Siakam on third team all NBA too. I didn't feel great about that either. I think I have second team Siakam. Yeah. Because I punished the not... If you don't... So you can not win maybe, and I'll give you a because I punish the not if you don't like so you can not

win maybe and I'll give you a break. You cannot play in enough games and maybe I'll cut you a little slack for the all NBA teams for the MVP that's different. I won't vote for it if you don't play enough but I'm not going to give you both. One or the other. You don't win, fine, but you got to play in a lot of games or vice versa. It can't be both. All right. Well,

I got to come on your show and make fun of Eddie soon at some point. Maybe it's September, I got to come on your show and make fun of Eddie soon at some point, maybe in September after I get through this football preparation stuff, but I'm ready to start lobbing some grenades. Yeah. Mid late September. I'm coming on. That sounds good. Anybody's welcomed as well to call up and rip that. He says a lot of dumb stuff. All right. Justin Termini. Good to see you. Thanks for coming on. Yeah, you're welcome, Bill. Appreciate you having me on, but not as, not as much dumb stuff as Draymond. I will see you. Thanks for coming on. You're welcome, Bill. Appreciate you having me on, but not as much dumb stuff as Draymond. I will

say that. Thanks for having me. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Termini. Thanks to Sharp. Thanks to House. Thanks to Cowcrate for producing. Thanks to Dylan Berkey and Steve Cerruti as always. Don't forget, new rewatchables coming Monday night. Sylvester Stallone is involved.

And then I will have a new podcast on Tuesday and another newone is involved. And then I will have a new podcast on Tuesday and another new podcast on Thursday. And I am appearing on the Big Picture, Sean Fennessey's podcast this week as well to do a special Hall of Fame for an actor that I love very much. So there you go.

That is my agenda for this week. We'll see you on Tuesday on This Week. On the wayside, I'm a person never lost And I don't have to ever forget