The Bill Simmons Podcast - Five NBA Trade Ideas, a Sleeper NFL Playoff Team, Eagles-Packers, and Week 10 Picks With Joe House

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss five of his favorite NBA trade ideas right now (1:58). Then, they talk about the NFL playoff picture before making their Ringer 107 picks for the week (41:44). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Where football fantasy gets real. Shakey’s, the People’s Pizza Parlor. https://www.shakeys.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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so your business can stay unfazed. Learn more at SAP.com. The Bill Simmons podcast, brought to by the Ringer podcast Network, where I have a new rewatch was coming for you on Monday. It was me and Sean Fennacy and Van Lathen. And we did Snake Eyes, the Brian DePalma movie with Nick Cage that is just a time capsule of what it was like movies in the late 90s, just the kind of chances they took and also movies that were less than 100 minutes.

So great times all around. We cut out a piece of that podcast that we ended. up running on this podcast on Tuesday, if you missed it. Coming up today, so House is going to come on, as always on Thursdays to do NFL picks, but Picasso had to go into the art studio and do some trade machine work. There's a lot of unhappy teams. I don't know what's going on with John Morant. Even though it is November 6th, it's feeling very trade-wiffy.

So we're going to make up some fake trades. Well, I made up some fake trades. I'm going to throw them at house. And then we're going to talk about the NFL slate, Ringer 107, complicated week. It's all next. We're taking a break, then Pearl Joe. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm.

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All right, we're recording mid-afternoon East Coast time. I'm on the East Coast. Went to the Celtics game yesterday. Joe House is here. We're talking NFL a little bit later. A lot of stuff. This is a good House Simmons pod because it's just NBA NFL, just a vortex. I went to the Celtic game last night.

I saw your terrible Wizards team. Not that the Celtics were much better. And, you know, the trade machine Picasso has... Definitely bought Azizel and bought some paint and bought some brushes once the John Morant news happened. But going to that Celtic game yesterday, the wheels started turning. I don't really know what the point of this Celtic season is. I don't mean to be a dick. It's fine.

Jalen Brown's good. Derek White's good. Simons is okay. Pritchard is okay. Kate has been fun. He's a double-double guy. You won money on that yesterday. But it's probably a below 500 team.

And the question is, what's the point? And if Tatum is going to be out, maybe, maybe with this legendary draft class, maybe you start audibly. And that got me thinking about trades house. And here's the problem. Really hard to make trades this year. The new CBA, first apron, second apron, big contracts, teams that just like, we can't take more money.

It's actually against the rules for us to add even $1. Is this good because I was arguing with Bobby Marks about this tranchev. And Bobby Marks, like, the league is, he said this on his pin. The league's in better shape. This is all good. We have, like, a better balance now. I feel like a lot of teams are stuck with who they are. What do you see?

Well, you have to define good. What goal are you seeking to achieve with the parity that is the world? that we live in right now. I mean, if you're Adam Silver, what's your goal? Or like, what do you think their goal was? You think it was just parody across the board and no high payrolls, and that's it. Yes, yes.

Parody above all else. Not that dissimilar from the NFL where a team like Washington can be really bad for a number of years, lucky into something in a lottery, in a draft, get a franchise change, quarterback and then make it to the NFC championship game or a team like

New England, which has been bad for four or five years, gets a great addition in a draft and all of a sudden New England, not just a playoff threat, but potentially, you know, it's okay for the good people in New England to dream. Let me hear it. If you get your quarterback, you can still spend money around him and you can still push money forward into the future and pay for shit. You can do what Casey has done. Like, Casey was trying to trade for Breece Hall at the trade deadline. How do they have money to do anything?

I look at some of these basketball teams. And the Knicks and Cleveland are the two best teams in the East. They also can't make any sort of trade that would improve whatever situation they have now, which maybe that's a good thing. I don't know. They made the trades. I mean, the Knicks made, you know, four trades, five trades. Like franchise altering.

McHale Bridges, a cat, you know, acquiring Brunson, stealing Brunson away from the Mavericks, convincing Brunson to take an undermarket deal. That's how you build up nucleus that's competitive. Most teams have not done that. And also the way they sprung these rules where instead of saying, these are going to start three years from now,

they just kind of jumpstarted it. And I just look around, and it's not just that I see teams that are probably upset about where they are kind of stuck with their roster or whatever, but I also don't see a lot of options for fixing it. And that's what I don't remember before. What needs fixing? Like you don't like the way that the West lines up competitively with Houston, Denver,

Oklahoma City. They can still get that point guard. They have an asset in the form of Frayman Bleeds contract sitting right there for a team that has guards, you know. The problem is the guards are either really expensive or not quite expensive enough. That's a complaint about a guy getting hurt, which happens in the NBA and the NFL and everywhere else. But one of the things I was looking at is like the Lakers really just can't trade LeBron. He is no trade clause anyway.

But even if they decided, you know what, we're having a better time without you, you don't really want to be here anymore because it's Lucas team now. Let's figure this out. There's nowhere for him to go. Like he can't go to the Knicks. He can't go to Cleveland because of the rules. And then I look at some of the other guys that are already available. Like Morant, I'm assuming, Trey, you've been on this Hawks thing. You love the Tuesday game when they look great without Trey Young.

And it was like a little, hey, look at us. Look how long and happy. And you were in on that. It wasn't me. It's just, you know, I wish that we had gambled on the over-under of when the first stories about, hey, we kind of have a chemistry here without Trey Young. Oh, it's so interesting. We still love Trey, but it's interesting that we could also play without him. You knew that story was coming. I mean, the first one hit immediately after that Orlando game. I loved it so

much. So you seem like you like these new rules more than I do. I wish there was some sort of hybrid version of both of them. Like I look at, for instance, your team has C.J. McCollum and Chris Middleton, who I got to watch in person last night. In Middleton, whatever life he's leading this year is just the ideal life. He's making like $33 million. He kind of jogs around, takes a couple threes, pat some dudes on the back. And I guess they're just going to buy him out in February, but they can't really trade him.

They can't trade McCollum. McCallum's a guy that, you know, is still a good offensive player. He's going to be on the team and get bought out in February because nobody's going to trade for him. And I don't know if that's, I don't know if that's a good CBA. if you have situations like that. Yeah, don't, don't fill in the blanks. I like a version of the NBA where trades are possible.

I mean, we've been living you and I. Nobody better than you, but I've enjoyed it along the way as well. 25, 30 years of imagining trades to improve teams along the way, along, you know, on the fly. And quite a bit of the way that I've enjoyed the NBA over the years is getting through the first month of the season. okay now that we have that under our belts let's really sort of start seeing

what kind of moves can be made what kind of stuff is out there how can teams get better who's expendable now it's two weeks in now it's two weeks in it's like eight teams that would immediately make a trade if they could but that if you can't make the trade then that's not a good version of the NBA

in my humble opinion the trades are an elemental part because you know this this version of the NBA as has been talked about sort of ad nauseum over the last 12 months, people don't watch the NBA, like, I'm watching the games and then I'm going to talk about the games afterwards. Everybody's already in some conversation where the games are secondary to the ongoing narrative of the league. The games give some color for us to talk about.

Like, how about the Chicago effing bulls? How about Josh effing giddy? That's great stuff. but it's not crucial that I sit and watch the Bulls from the beginning of the game to the end of the game I don't have to watch the game at all so like baseball my team needs a left hand

a reliever let's just go get one and then you go get one right football you even though the cap seems pretty prohibitive it seems like teams can always kind of figure out

how to add somebody if they really want somebody right the Colts really wanted a cornerback ah fuck it let's go get one basketball has lost a little bit of that and yet I did find five trades that I really liked. I did not send these to you.

I knew you did. I knew it. I knew it. Well, two of them have John Morant. Great. And the first one's pretty chalk. I think this one's probably floated around, but it's Miami and Memphis. You sent Jada Miami. You put KCP in the deal. Memphis takes back Hero and Rozier and you just call it a day. And Memphis basically turns. John and Tahiro and Rozier's expiring. Miami has to take on an extra year at KCP.

They get Jah. They roll the dice that Jah can be turned into a superstar again. I thought the Durant stuff on court that got captured by video last night when he was going back and forth with Jaws' dad. And he's like, your guy doesn't even want to be here past the weekend. And when the players are talking like that, that tells me this is a wrap. And there's really not a lot of spots for Jahn. and I also don't really know what his trade value is at this point

with all the issues he's had in the lack of durability. Like, if you told me that two years ago, it's like, well, Miami's got to throw in three first and two swaps. It's like, I don't think they have to throw in anything. I think just getting a hero for job might be enough if you're Memphis, right? It has to be that way. I mean, what reasonable expectation does Memphis already hit its draft pick lottery with the Bain trade.

and what they what that creates for them I don't really blame Bain to be honest with you that's just asking if you saw his stats the man's out on an island it's not good

it's not good it's a rough one anyway go ahead well I like this so the the reason that Morant is you know a damaged goods proposition is because

what situation is going to work for him where he will come and play grown-up. Like, he won't be a grown-up in Memphis. Memphis is a situation that I think, you know, it's run by adults. I've always respected the acumen of the front office. I've respected what they put in charge of coaching. And so he couldn't make it work there.

Okay. So what are the situations where it might work? You can cross off literally two-thirds, maybe three-quarters of the league. Just cross it off. Like, there is not a world, you know, anywhere near the universe, the Milky Way we live in, where he could come to a place like Washington, and that would be a successful kind of situation. I mean, that is so.

I think it's actually illegal in the cap for you guys to trade for anyone who's had some sort of gun incident in the past. I don't think we've served the 50-year sentence yet. No, I'm just being honest. Still feels too soon. I think it's just a fact. It still feels too, 25 years ago. When you talk about situations, it's not just like, oh, this team, he doesn't make sense in this market because this team's not that good.

He'll run a mock. It's also this team is doing really well. They would want to risk it just in case this goes sideways. And then the third group is teams that probably would take a chance on them, but they can't figure out how to make the trade. Like, I think the quippers are a really good example of that. Yeah. So I would trust the clippers.

I guess the clippers like, oh, James Hardin and something else for John Morant. right conceivably but there's no way that trade happens and why would memphis do that so there's really Miami is very good Miami's very good yeah because of the he's definitely like the ceiling of him as higher than hero you get out of having to pay hero when his extension's coming up and then you hope like hey if we can get jazz head straight we have him and bam those are two of the best 25 30 guys in the league and Miami also has like an institutional thing like you know they'll get a Alonzo morning. They'll get Udana's Haslam. They'll get all the old heads with the, with the Miami lineage to come get in this, this kid's head to talk to the camp and be like, this ain't it. There's a way for you to make another $500 million. If you would like to make another $500 million over the course of your career, let's figure it out together. As a team, you're now part of heat culture. And there's a, there's a pathway to this. But you got to get right. There's one other team for him.

I didn't make this one of my five trades, but just I was thinking, if you're just talking about a bad team, there's a Brooklyn case. Oh. I think this draft that's coming up is so good. I don't think Brooklyn's going to do anything that will jeopardize them getting a top three pick

because you have the Kansas kid might be the best guard prospects since Vince Carter or even go back to Kobe. Like that's potentially how good he is, Peterson. And then DeBanza. And then Boozer's son, the power forward. Awesome. Cam Booser.

Awesome. Those three are all franchise guys. And if I'm Brooklyn, I'm doing nothing. I could get Jow over the summer if I have to. Sure. But that was the only team because I was thinking like, man, just make him like the King of Barclays. He's obviously one of the coolest guys in the league, right? He's got the shoe and he's the whole.

There's like street cred with him that Brooklyn just doesn't have. Brooklyn's like invisible. They couldn't be more irrelevant. They're the third most popular team in New York. And at least if you have John, now I can put somebody in the side of the building. Now it would be the same case for Tray Young, by the way. But yeah, Brooklyn's doing nothing because of this draft. Next trade.

I do like that Miami trade. I'm kind of, as somebody who hates the heat, if that trade happened, I'm like, fuck. They're going to fix John Moran. God, yes, they could. The only other John Moran trade is in this team is in this next trade. and it's a three-teamor. And of course, Trey Young has to be in it as well.

Memphis gets Trey Young. Okay. Toronto gets John Morant. Okay. Atlanta gets quickly. Murray Boyles, the number one pick they took. Yeah, Toronto liked them. And protected, like, 29 first.

Not like an unprotected, but like some sort of other asset. and Memphis basically turns Maranta into Trey and Trey goes in there the Memphis fans will love him immediately and and maybe everybody's happy

So we can't have Morant to Atlanta and Trey to Memphis because Morant in Atlanta feels like a disaster you agree with that? A disaster maybe off the court, and I think on the court, if I'm trading Tray Young and I'm not investing in him, it's because I really like these long guys that I want to build my team around Johnson

and Risa Shea and Daniels. Like, this is, I want this to be my team. I don't want to bring in another point guard who's going to have the ball all the time. Yeah. But you turn John of some depth, quickly is the six guy off the bench. Murray Boyle's another long guy. And that's just kind of how you spend the 50 million a year on Tray Young that you would have had to spend. You know, What's Atlanta get? That's what they would get. They would get quickly in Murray Boyles. Oh, I see.

Okay. And what Memphis gets is Trey, and what Toronto gets is Jha. And that's it. And maybe Memphis has to throw in a tiny bit extra because I don't know if, do you think Trey and Jaha have equal trade value? I would say Trey is like a whiff higher, right? At this point? Well, the problem is the contract.

It was expiring. Yeah, you're right. So maybe they're even. I think they're pretty close to even. I like that idea for Toronto because they're just, like, kind of, they're a team of, they're like a movie of where there's no star for the poster. We the North. Yes, a guy they can rally around, a guy that, that, you know, it's easy to say,

oh, his situation, he was cheated out of, out of his potential down there in Memphis. We're going to rally behind him. I do like the coach in Toronto. I think he's, he's very good. organizationally you know they move past Maasai which seems like the right move

they have to have some structure for Jha to succeed seem like a town that he could work in I kind of like it I kind of like it I kind of like it

if I'm Toronto I don't do it though why I want to see what I have with this team a little bit longer I think they're mildly intriguing. Like, did you see any of the game on Tuesday when they just house the bucks? Yes. They've had some moments this season, and they're a 500 team,

but they've had some moments where I'm like, huh. I get it. Yeah, I kind of understand, and maybe there's a better trade for them in December, January. But that's a lot of wattage, you know what I mean? Like that kind of a guy that's on the precipice of a super duper stuff. kind of thing. He was going to have a whole shoe line.

He was going to have all of it. How are you getting out in Toronto? And Bernos seems like he doesn't even have the answer to this either. Why is John Moran unhappy this year? Like, shouldn't he be trying to prove himself to Memphis?

There's some kind of communication issue that wasn't resolved when they fired Taylor Jenkins. It just didn't get fixed. It's been two years of this. It feels like it's been going on for a long time. third trade

this goes back to what I was saying with the Celtics at the top I hate saying this and this has been floating around for six weeks and I've resisted I actually think they should probably trade Derek White and I love Derek White like he's an awesome Celtic

I don't want to trade Derek White but this team is like just good enough that they're going to screw up their pick, they have all of the, all of the reasons to just kind of just be one of the five worst teams in the league. Like they're really close. They can't rebound. Keda is like incredibly important.

If he's not in the game, they completely fall apart. They have like a small lineup. They play with Josh Minot. That's kind of fun. Who's been a revelation as like, you know, a dirt cheap guy at the bench, although now he's starting. And they just kind of live and die by threes. But he's, you know, he's going to be 32 later in the season.

And, you know, by the time Tatum comes back, I just, it's the one where I'm like, why wouldn't they, if somebody was willing to really go after him, how do you not think about it? Because you're not only getting assets, but you're making the team worse, which is kind of where you maybe want to be. Like, they're playing like Luca Garza and, you know, Shireman. They're playing guys who are just not NBA rotation guys, I don't think. And a lot. And Jalen's been really good.

Like, Jalen, you know, the question was, could he be a true? number one. Like, he really can. But, you know, could they. Can you explain to me something with him? The hair thing. I don't. Why is he painting on the hairline?

I think to get attention. I was so upset that Washington wore jersey, wore the, the striped jerseys because we couldn't see the painted on hairline. I know. I don't. That he wiped. Well, here's my Derek White trade. And it's a trade that has been floated around for two months.

Okay. But I think the trade's a little different than maybe it was two months ago. He goes to Houston. He goes with Tullman's expiring. And the Celtics get Van Vleet. And they get Tari Yason, who's been awesome this season. And they get Phoenix's 2027 first. And look, if Houston doesn't want to do that, then there's no trade.

But I think that's the price. That's a stiff price. If they could turn Derek White and the Yen and that Phoenix pick, and you're the Celtics, you kind of have to do that. I don't know how you say no to that. Well, that's a triple double, triple double win for Boston. Are you kidding me? That 2027 Phoenix pick and Tar Easton?

I respectfully, so now, respectfully, get the fuck out of here. That's outrageous. All right, but if you're Houston. And that pick? Right. But that's my price up on Boston. So what do you do if you're Houston? Something that costs a lot less than that.

So you say no way. Yes. Yes. No way. Houston's close to win. the title this year. Yeah. Tar Yisen's an important part of that.

Like he gives... You got to give up something and get something. I understand that. But that, that, that pick is crazy valuable, the 27 sons pick. And Tari Isan is very valuable to him. And the FVV contract is, you know, a movable part for somebody. Yeah, it goes this year and then next year. So you, so would you do YSIN and a lesser pick than the Phoenix pick?

I don't know. Because now I'm not doing it from Boston. I'm only trading Derek White if you've blown me away. I get that part. That part resonates. I understand it. But where Houston is right now

and the way that they're playing. Houston looks scary. Easton's like playing awesome. So the Rockets fans are listening this and be like, fuck you, we're not trading Tyre Easton. And I don't blame you.

I'm with you. I'm with you Houston fans. I'm just saying that's the price for Derek White. And if they can't get something like that, I'm keeping them. okay that's fine good luck you're going to keep them and the most important thing and then we have the eighth pick in a three-player draft

right up next trade oh you're going to love this because your team's involved oh boy here we go Philadelphia gets Chris Middleton and C.J. McCollum okay fine Washington gets two and a half years of Paul George Eric Gordon

and Jared McCain Okay So you take Paul George for the next almost three years He becomes your Chris Middleton this year But just for three years

And you get McCain out of it That's the tax It's worth it It's worth it I would do that You would do this Yes Yes

I think I think McCain is extraordinary What we The problem that you have with McCain is now, you know, two consecutive years with these, with this injury stuff. Is this a persistent, is this a trait or is it or is it above?

Bad luck. Yes, exactly. You have to make that determination. But talent wise, for a young player of his caliber, there's nobody on Washington as good as Jared McCain and there's nobody coming down the pike to Washington that's as good as Jared McCain. Now, I am, I'm sitting here enjoying Mr. Saar. You know, you got to see him last night.

He's got some skill. There's some skill there. Here's my scouting report. Really, really promising stretch five. Like kind of a dead eye three point shooter. Yeah. I thought it was going in every time he took it. He's got size.

I wouldn't say he's a great rebounder, but he's not bad. I didn't really see him be able to pull. put the ball on the floor at all and really do anything. So I basically he's, I think he becomes a better shooting Miles Turner would be my guest for him down the road, right? That was my takeaway watching him for two and a half hours last night. It's like, this looks like Miles Turner and Sir Jabaka had a baby, basically. Just have to remember he's 20.

Right. Like we're getting a lot of evidence that there is NBA skill there. No, he's the opposite of a bust. You should feel good about Sarr. I do. I do feel good about him. I have really no idea what's going on with the guards. Neither do they.

Like, Bob Carrington seems like he'll be in the league for a little while, but he's not a starting point guard. Nope. I don't know why they would ever in a million years play him and Trey Johnson together. That was really confusing. Trey Johnson, I texted you. his nickname should be drive-through. Everybody was just going by him.

Like it was just going in, get a cheeseburger, keep going. But he's somebody that we know who he is. He's going to be like a score. But on that team, everybody wants the ball. And it's just, it's a bad fit for him. Yeah. Yeah, God forbid somebody like BJ Edge, Comer, Ace Bailey. You just, yeah, you just missed it.

Well, Sarr looked like that. Sarr thing worked out. Right? Yeah. I think if we redraft that draft, he's, they probably take them again. So do you think Philly would do that? Because I guess it depends on how good you think

McCain is and how desperate you are to get rid of the Paul George contract. They might be like, we're fine with the Paul George contract. We'll just pay it. Yeah, I mean, the calculus for Philly is can we have this team going forward with both MBE and Paul George and the success of the team

kind of depends on both those guys mining their manners for a little? a little while. Maybe not even play. Because really, both of them should shut the fuck up. Like, neither one of them should talk about anything having to do with, you know, career. And they have no contribution to make to this iteration of the Sixers other than to

play the role player thing that Embed is playing. I mean, his inefficiency right now costs them the game against Cleveland. they have him perfectly set up to play in this role where it should be about 25 minutes he gets shot but he took 21 shots he took six fucking three pointers

he was one for six from three point land and they let the Cleveland Cavaliers come back from from 20 some points down that's bullshit that's not who they shouldn't it shouldn't be permissible they have a hard strategy thing to solve because in Joel Embed we signed him to this

giant extension. He's a 22 to 26 minute player a night who should be able to come in off the bench and give you 16 to 20 because of the skill that he has. Well, he's basically late 2000s, Andrew Bynum. Sure. Big guy that comes off the bench. He can carry the offense for six minutes. Yeah. Yeah. But maybe in crunch time you don't want him out there because he's so slow. So you have that role filled. What's the Paul George role? Do you start him? You have to start them. The thing with the Sixers, and all of their fans would say this, is they just want to watch VJ and Maxi,

and they want to see the team go up and down. And they know what the team's identity is. I agree. These two guys that are in the way of that identity. I don't think Paul George can play that way anymore. Me either. So if you're them, it's like, eh, maybe we're selling high in McCain. He wasn't even a lottery pick.

He was my favorite pick in the draft. Yeah, you know him from Southern California, right? Yeah, I loved him in high school. I think he's, you know, I think he's a real dude, but he played really well for a couple weeks to start the season got hurt. So, you know, maybe you're selling high on that and it's a way to get out of the Paul George saying, I don't know. I think Philly would ultimately probably say no to that, but I think your team, that's the kind of trade they should be thinking. Totally agree with you. We'll take your terrible contract.

We have these two expirings. You can get out of jail with what you have and give us an asset to do this. I didn't hesitate. I said, yes, please. for the record. My fifth trade is my favorite one, and I'm going to give it to you. Let's go.

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I'm choosing my starting five so far this season the players that have impressed me knocked my socks off the most to date I thought we could do this together Giddy has to be number one number one put them up there

I'm so proud I was like so few of us like that like the Giddy Caruso trade for Chicago I just always like tremendous win win An amazing win-win.

One of the better trades. Yeah, it was almost like that Kauai-Jur-Chill trade. I think if you go back, anybody wants to go back and listen to the podcast of Bill Simmons and people from the ring are talking about that trade. I think everybody was very like, hey, this is a good trade. Yeah. All right, so Giddy won. I got to say, I really like Sarr.

I think I would put him in my starting five. I think if you have a 20-year-old. But you don't have to do that, but you don't have to do that because I'm sitting here. There's been some other guys. 20-year-old seven-foot one guy who can make six threes in a game. Like, that's not nothing. That's not nothing. I agree. It's hard to say when like a team that doesn't win any basketball games. It's really hard to get a match. He's not playing with a point card. By the way, you're, my favorite guy on the Wizz is Kispert. Like, I should be on a winning team at some point in his life. Tremendous. It's just a winning player.

Tremendous trade after. It's a shame to waste him on that team. Very underrated golfer. He's a He's excellent. He thinks he's the second best golfer in the NBA behind Seth Curry. Wow. Tar He does. Tar Easton's my third guy. Tari, is he really a revelation?

He's established himself. Shooting 55% from three, I would say yes. He's going to shoot threes like that. I get that point, but all I'm saying is like he's already in a certain class. Well, they're asking me,

they said there was no criteria. I'm looking at the Fandrel rules here. Let me, I think I've been awesome. How about, How about, well, I'll let you finish because I, maybe you already have a guy. Maybe you already have this guy. Who?

The Jake La Ravia guy, you don't think for the Lakers? The Snowtime Lakers? Yes. Yes. Part of the mayonnaise, boys? There you go. Now we're talking. Protein Cup.

That's good. And I'll do Cedric Howard as my fifth one because I really like that guy. Love him. No matter how you play, Fando's giving you the power to choose your reward on your game. this NBA season, make your choice now. My fifth trade, my favorite one. You mentioned the Bulls earlier, and I intentionally held you off. They've been really fun to watch, and it dates back to last year. We talked about it when we did the over-unders. The over-under was like 32-5. We didn't understand it because they were so good down the stretch. They didn't really lose

anybody, and we figured Buzellis would be better. What's interesting is all of it, they're six-and-one, and Giddy's been basically a triple-double this season. They're shooting the lights out. out. They have actually defense on the swing spots now. Jones has come in as a backup point guard. And the guy that hasn't played yet is Kobe White, who is in the final year of a $12 million deal. You know who needs a point guard house? Well, there's a few teams, but I would say Minnesota is leading the way. Oh, wow. Yes, they do need a point card.

Chicago has a big-ass trade exception that can make some fun. with their trades in a good way. It's one of the few teams that with these modern rules, they can get pretty creative. They can take Kobe White. They can add somebody to him. They could take somebody back who makes more money than him. They have a lot of flexibility.

If you send him to Minnesota, a team that desperately needs a point guard, and you take back DeFenzo and Rob Dillingham, and call it a day. I think I would do that if I was both teams What's in it for Chicago? Deep percent of another swingman shooter

He can get the Kevin Herder minutes Or maybe share the Kevin Herder minutes or whatever And then you're rolling the dice with Dillingham Hoping that down the road he's more of an asset Maybe you can get more from Kobe White, I don't know But he's in an expiring deal making 12 I mean, is Kobe White going to play better than Tray Jones? I mean, the way Tray Jones has been playing, I don't know.

Kobe White's a good player, though. I mean, he's the average 1920 a game. Over 29 minutes. Trey Jones is, you know, isn't he $0.85 on the dollar, Kobe White? Well, because the other, the other way to go is you could talk to Houston about see if they're interested in a rich guy Reed, try to do a little Reed Shepard, some other contract, send them back Kobe Jones. Kobe White.

Kobe White. Not Trey Jones. Trey Jones and Kobe White. Well, you said Jones, I screwed up. Because it's Trey. Kobe Jones was a really good soccer player in the mid-90s. Houston's another thing, but I think Kobe Jones is a live trade asset right now. You said it again.

Kobe White. And I think Kobe White's a live trade asset right now. And Kobe White. I think Kobe White's live on the trade machine. I do like this a lot. Kobe White underrated and this Bulls team getting better. The only question I have is like, is DeVincenzo, like, how's he fit with what this Bulls team is trying to do? Maybe that's not enough.

I had a lot of trouble with Minnesota because they don't really have any picks. You can do swap stuff with them. I was just trying to figure out a way to get them there because if I'm Chicago, I'm now in a car keys situation. Like, I've struck oil with Josh Giddy. This is not a sample size. This guy is dominating games. He's getting, like, even like a crunch time, he's getting where he wants in the court and creating what shot he wants.

Like, you've got something really special happening here. And I don't want Kobe White coming out. I'm not going to pay him next year. I'd rather put my chips into the Giddy basket. And I would try to trade him. Well, I mean, especially like Buzellis is everything you hoped he could be. We were talking about that in the over-unders. We were hoping it was sitting there for him.

47% from the field, over 42% from three? Yeah. Over 80% free throw. Oh, he's a professional basketball player in the NBA. Well, the thing with them when you watch them, and I've really enjoyed watching them all year, is multiple guys who can beat somebody off the dribble and kick out or go to the basket.

And they're just really hard to defend because you're always kind of going backwards. And Kobe White fits into that. So they might decide we're just better off keeping him. But I think when you have a $12 million point guard and expiring contract in a league where nobody can make a trade, that's a really good asset. Maybe DeFincenzo and Dillingham's not enough.

I guess Dillingham, he was the eighth pick in the draft. And Minnesota gave up an unprotected 2032 first for him. So I would assume he's an asset. He's only 20. And it's the one asset they really have at this point. So whether that's a fair trade or not, I don't know. But the Kobe Way thing, I'm really watching and see what they do. We've never seen Chicago spend money.

They've been happy to go 40 and 42 every year and not pay the luxury tax. Then they've been for 15 years. But they have a chance to, you know. It's really fun. They also, if they wanted, they could take Kobe and a couple of their bigger contracts and go after an expensive guy. Well, who's like an expensive guy that we think is going to be? Like a guy in the 40s, 50 million range, like a real, a guy. I'm not going to say a Jalen Brown, but like a Jailen Brown, not actually Jailen Brown.

Not Jailen Brown. Not actually Jailen Brown. Unless Bezellis was in offer. Nobody wants to mess with Sabonis, right? Sabonis isn't. Subonis for Chicago? No, I think they would improve the wings if they did anything. Okay.

That Patrick Williams, Akoro, those kind of guys. But fun team to watch. All right, that's it for the trade machine. We're moving to NBA. Any other basketball before we go? Any other basketball takes you want to get off? No.

You believe in this Lakers thing yet? How can you not? I mean, I'm super proud of myself. I stared at it for so long last night. The only basketball take for me to get off is I've started playing Money Line parlays. I stayed away from last night. The slate didn't line up for it.

But the game I stared at long and hard was that Lakers San Antonio game because I really wanted to bet the Lakers. and I'm glad that I stayed away from it. But, you know, I understand, but it's like that would have been too nerve-wracking. Just, you know, that late at night. I don't need that. San Antonio is in a rough spot without point guards here.

You know, they don't have Fox yet, and they lost Harper. And I just, they feel like they're a ballhand, were short. I thought I watched a lot of that Phoenix game. You're right about this. Phoenix did work some stuff against them. And all of a sudden, they seemed very stagnant. to me. And they just need those guys back.

I'm monitoring San Antonio because when they get all these guys back, I think they're going to go rocket ship. Okay. All right, football. I sent you, we are right in the, as we try to figure out, ringer 107 picks, we're right in the exact part of the season when everybody thinks they know who the playoff teams are going to be. and yet somebody comes out of nowhere and somebody has a swoon.

And sometimes it's one team in each conference where it happens. So I mail-do all the candidates. And I think there's three teams that you could say have a chance to make a leap. And I'll just use the Fandole playoff odds to show that this would be significant. Houston is three and five plus 520 to make the playoffs. And I think they fit all the criteria for a possible leave team. Minnesota is 4 and 4. They were 3 and 4.

They won last week. If you're under 500, week 7 or later, you fit this criteria. So they're 4 and 4 now. They're plus 430 for the playoffs. And the Arizona is 3 and 5 plus 980. So I'm just going to give you those three teams to start. Houston, Minnesota, Arizona. I'm going to tell you one of those three teams will be in the playoffs.

Which of those three would you pick? the team that I think is the best of those three teams is Arizona. I think you're right. I couldn't believe the plus 980. I thought that, that seemed really high to me. They haven't lost five games so far this season, but none of them by more than four points. I mean, that, yeah, I have them with the adjusted record. I have them as three and one with four either or games.

Mm-hmm. and all their losses and games have been close and it seems like they're happy with their quarterback situation than they were. I mean, to put it mildly, the problem with Arizona, the reason that the price, you know, it's just a gauntlet.

They are on the road at Seattle. They're home against San Francisco. Now, Jacksonville, I'm sure we'll get to today, home against Jacksonville doesn't worry me, but on the road at Tampa, home against the Rams. they have two easy games at Cincinnati home Jacksonville and at Cincinnati I don't even know how easy of a game that is because Burrow might be back it's week 17

Duro's not coming back what's the point of playing Joe Burrow on that terrible football team at Seattle at Tampa at Houston at Sincey at Rams left and they're three and five so they basically they'd have to go seven and two tough I think you know if I you would say Cincinnati is to me is a win they have Atlanta at home that's a win. Atlanta's what a team. They're at Houston, I think, just because of the injuries. Houston and Arizona are very similar.

And I think it's like you have them properly organized in the same class. This concussion situation with C.J. Stroud this weekend against Jacksonville, it just couldn't come into a worse time. And they, the Houston Texans, were poised to do the thing that we picked them last week to do. Oh, we had that. I mean, you know. That's stupid. It was a cheap shot.

Like, I don't, you know. Yeah. He didn't hit him in the head, but he hit him as he slid down and he got concussed from hitting his head off the turf. I feel like not enough has been made of the fact that that that's a cheap shot and it knocked the quarterback out. And that probably clinches for Houston their inability to make the playoffs this season because they were kicking Denver's ass in that game. So I have, out of those three, I have Houston as the team that I would pick, even though I think Arizona is the best of the three. Because Houston's three and five, I have them at three, three, and two either-or games so far.

They're plus 520 to make the playoffs. But if you look at the schedule, first of all, they'd have to win the Jacksonville game this week, which is home, which is going to come up in Ringer 107 because I have hard thoughts on that game. At Tennessee, so they could be five and five in ten days, right? a little more doable at that point. It could be. Home Buffalo, at Indy, at KC, home Arizona, home Las Vegas,

at the Chargers, home Indy, and that game might be nothing to Indy. Indy might be locked into a one or a two seed. The problem is they'll be five and five. I like the idea of where you're going. But then Buffalo, Indy, Kansas City, Arizona,

those are the next four. That's how you define what, Yeah, at an absolute bare minimum, must go two and two. The question for me is, can nine and eight make the playoffs in the AFC? Because you have four teams, four teams, I have five teams that I think are going to be in the playoffs. New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and KC. And I know Casey's the eight team, but I just think those five teams are going to be in. I'd be shocked.

Like really genuinely shocked, right? Would you have any of those out? No. New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and. Casey. They're all in. So there's two spots left. And we know one of those spots goes to the NFC North. And then the other goes to the wild card. See, in Pittsburgh at 5 and 3, again, two spots left for these four teams. Pittsburgh 5 and 3, they're minus 115 to make the playoff some fan dual. It seems like the right price. Baltimore, 3 and 5, they're minus 170. Chargers

6 and 3, they're minus 192. And Jacksonville's 5 and 3, they're minus 158. So the odds are off. there's actually value in playing all of those to not make the playoffs, right? Because only two of them are going to make it. So you're probably going to win that either way. I would have the Chargers out. I think the Joe Out thing finished them. I agree with this.

I just think they can't block. Cannot. On top of some of the other shit that's happened to them. I really don't, I think Herbert is just going to get back. They're so vulnerable to pressure. They have a Philly home game. Pittsburgh this week at KC. They have at Denver last week of the season.

I just feels like 9 and 8 to me. I think they can go 3 and 5. That would be one of my nose. And then Jacksonville, I just think, is fraudulent. No, they're out. They're out. They're out. No, no.

So the two teams that I have in, you didn't ask, are. Oh, no, AFC. Yeah, Baltimore and Denver. Yeah. I have Baltimore and Denver. I had Denver in already. You said AFC West when you ran through the teams because you had the chiefs in And then you said another spot for the AFC West.

So I had New England, Buffalo, Indy, Denver, and KC. I had those five. Okay, okay, okay. So two left. I see. Oh, okay, now I got it. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston, pick two. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chargers, Jacksonville, Houston.

I have Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I think that's right. And Houston would have to take one of their spots. I think is how this plays out. This is how stupid I am. Yeah. We'll get to it and then ringer 107. Okay.

I really like Pittsburgh in L.A. this week. Oh, unfortunately, I did too. I had it mark him. Damn it. It makes a ton of sense. You know what killed Houston? That game last week. It did.

They'd be four and four right now. I think they'd be fine. With a game in hand against Denver, which is an important thing. Going six and, so there's three and five that have to go seven and two down the stretch to get to 10 wins. I can't get there with Houston. I can't get there. All right. So the only reason I bring all this up is I think it informs how we should be thinking about Ringer 107.

Because this is a fork in the road for the playoffs in a lot of ways. And the NFC, where we have four teams that I think are in, Philly, Green Bay, Tampa, and Seattle, there's three spots left. And yet the Rams are minus 750 to make the playoffs at 6 and 2. Detroit is minus 4.30 to make the playoffs of 5 and 3. And San Francisco is minus 385 to make the playoffs at 6 and 3. This is all in Fandul.

So Fando is basically saying the other four spots, four to one odds against these teams making it basically, which is they're prohibitive favorites. So Chicago is plus 185, they're 5 and 3. Carolina's 5 and 4, they're plus 2.35 with a pretty easy schedule. And then Minnesota 4 and 4 in Arizona, 3 and 5.

There's a mild bear's case house. I actually was surprised they were plus 185. I thought that should have been a little closer to even because they got the Giants this week, they could be six and three at Minnesota, Pittsburgh, at Philly, at Green Bay, Cleveland home, Green Bay home, at San Francisco, home, Detroit. And I think they can get to at least nine wins. But would you go chalk or would you have an outlier?

Detroit, Rams, San Francisco last three spots. Would you go chalk? Yeah. You would. You would go chalk. The parlay that we talked about, and we've been sort of pursuing over the last couple of weeks still feels right to me. I just, even though Chicago, I want to give them credit because they keep surprising with

changing the script of things that they can't do and then they start doing it successfully. I think they're the best rush team on offense, the best running team on offense. over the last maybe at least three weeks, maybe month the combination of the Andre Swift and the guy that you picked up in free agency last week for his dominant

170. Monagau? Monagai? Yeah, not a guy. Not a guy, not a guy. Yes. Well, so Detroit, Rams, Detroit,

San Francisco, all to make the playoffs right now is minus 112. Basically, even odds, those are the three. And if I had to pick a party crasher, I think I would pick Chicago just because they've had the turnover luck all year. And it's weird, but with turnover luck, it seems to change season to season and not during the season.

Once you're kind of in that turnover, good shit's happening, it feels like it just keeps going. No anecdotal evidence. I mean, no hardcore evidence, more anecdotal. But sometimes every, it feels like there's a horseshoe up the ass team in each. conference every year. And this year it's Pittsburgh and Chicago. The team and I, it just feels like a run that keeps going.

The team I'd like to fade based on all the vulnerability we saw out of them last week is Detroit because that offensive line has revealed something to us. They just, they've had a lot of injuries. Yeah. The injuries in the secondary.

But they still have three, three games against the worst teams in the NFC East, which are all of the NFC East teams except for the Eagles. They get to play Washington. this week now eight and a half is a ridiculous number preposterous uh under no circumstances i tell anybody to lay eight and a half with the detroit lions on the road outdoors against washington they might end up covering it daniels was playing that lines four three and a half right

exactly and and the difference between marriota and and daniels is not five points um this year's version of didn't sure yes i'm here to tell you um But Detroit also still gets the Giants. They still get Dallas. And so otherwise, because their schedule ends with two division games on the road against Minnesota and on the road against the Bears. If they're duking it out with the Bears, that Bears' last game of the season might be for that playoff spot.

So what are the odds for the Bears to make? plus 185 well and then Carolina we should mention quickly they're five and four I have them at two and two with five either or games that's not bad but they're playing New Orleans this week they're going to be six and four at Atlanta next week they could be seven and four at San Francisco who knows who's left on that team play the Rams by week at New Orleans

Tampa Seattle and then at Tampa last week of the season but tampo of at least quenched whatever they needed. There's a pretty easy case for nine wins for them. And then all that would need is one upset after that. And all of a sudden they're 10 and 7 in the playoffs. I haven't been eight and eight going through the schedule the way you just did. Going into week 17. All of a sudden they beat the Rams in Carolina.

And you're like, oh, my God. My issue with looking at the playoff picture this year is there's no, I can't believe this. Like when we get to January and we're like, I can't fucking believe this team's in the playoffs. And that team is there every year. And I don't know who that team is this year. But it's going to be a team.

It's going to be the Bears. It's going to be the Panthers. Right? What's the Carolina odds to make the playoffs? Plus 235. So a tiny bit on the Bears at plus 185 and a tiny bit on Carolina at plus 235 to offset the plus 3407 team parlay for the NFC picture. but I bet two weeks ago.

That's what it was, plus 340? Plus 340. Oh, when I sent it to you. And then it dropped because Washington went out and put up a stinker against the Chiefs. Washington at that point was still within the running. San Francisco is the weak link in that threesome. Yes, they are. With the manning injuries they've had and they still have an ad Zona, they still have an at Indy.

They got the Rams this week where they're getting four. and a half points in that game. They have Seattle last week of the season. They're at Cleveland one week. I could easily see them losing five more games. I was telling you and Sal and Hancho, I had made some San Francisco bets before the year. I bet the under 10 and a half. And when I went to, when I was in Boston, you can look at Fando and they offer you, though, do you want to buy this out now? Cash out. Yeah, you can cash this out if you're not happy. So they offered me like 85% of the Niners underbet, right? Maybe it's mid-90%.

They're like, you can have all this now or do you want to ride it out? And I was like, oh, that's interesting. So Fandall doesn't think the Niners are winning 11 games because they really want me to cash this bet out for 90%. Not a good sign. All right. We're going to take one more break and do some picks. This episode is brought to you by SAP. You know that feeling when running a business gets too demanding, the pressure to make

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Everything in this world is trying to kill you. You are prey until you become the predator. Experience it in IMAX and 3D. We might not be alone in this hunt. Predator Badlands in Theaters Friday. Get tickets now. All right, Ringer 101.107. We're one game under 500. and bad luck last week with Houston.

I just felt like we've been banging out three and twos, four and ones for a while, the Houston one, what can you do? Stay ways this week. I'd like to stay away from Panthers minus five and a half against the Saints if that's possible. I don't want to lay that many points with the Panthers.

Say less. Say less. Don't have to argue about that one. Browns minus two and a half against the Jets who just traded two of their best guys on defense and look like a classic Ewing theory situation. And I don't want to take Dylan Gabriel on the road. No. Jack kids might not be playing.

Weather, all kinds of stuff. Weather. I just, I don't want any part of that. I don't want that in a ring of one or something. That's up. Lions at Washington lane eight and a half. I thought about the lions at a parlay situation.

But first of all, they screwed us last week. No. Second of all, we're not taking Washington. They've lost by 22, 21, and 20. 24, the last three weeks. And it seems like if they fall behind by 10, the game's over. And their defense is 30th yards per play, 29th pass. I have no idea what's going to happen in this game.

I don't really want to have money on it. You agree? I'm not going to make a case that we should bet on Washington. I'm just saying the number is crazy. It's way overinflated. It's not a good number. It's our flash sale line of the week. Yes, it is.

It's do you like Washington at 5.5? here's eight and a half right now 12 hour lightning deal by now Washington can get pressure they don't have no edge pressure but they can get pressure up the middle um well it's also that this is the season if they lose this game there's seasons over in their home and i do think they're going to lose this game but eight and a half is preposter so anything over a touchdown is ridiculous house remember when was awesome and they went to the it was last year title game yeah it was amazing it's great feels like it was about eight years ago. It was just last year.

I think Seahog's Cardinals is a stayaway for me. It's Seahawks' home minus six and a half. And I know there's some cases for the cards playing them. You've mentioned them earlier. They've been, every game's been close, et cetera, et cetera. Seattle's advanced metric stuff is pretty nuts. And I kind of want to see somebody beat them before I go against them. I also don't want to lay seven in a must-win game.

for Arizona. I don't know what that number is based on. If Kyler Murray was playing, then I could see this number making sense. Yeah. Because Mike McDonald would absolutely have something cooked up for Kyler. But the six and a half is not a good number. I think Arizona is much better than that.

And Seattle is super getable at home. On the flip side, you could say that number is not high enough because Seattle's first in DVOA in the whole league. Aaron Schott said they had the fourth best DVOA through eight games since 1978. So they're not just really good. They're fucking killing teams. Their D is second against a run. Second year per play.

Third for quarterback hits. Their passing offense is obviously awesome. Here's my fear with this one. I think they're getting, especially post-Shaheed trade, a little too much, too much buzz. I agree. I mean, I think six a half is a bet. This feels like a classic. Oh, and in Arizona, Arizona's up to nothing.

I don't want any part of this game. Next one is Bears home against the Giants. They're laying four and a half. And my eyes keep drifting to it. And I keep trying to talk myself into it, but it feels too square. It's in the Vegas zone for a reason. I mean, the Giants run defense is awful.

I love that Bears running back last week. I think he can run all over these guys. But yeah, you look at the turnover. overlooked the bears have had and some of the other signs. And it's like, I just, it's a stay away from me. I wish the sign was like one and a half. Then they'd be fine. Then it would be worth betting on.

Yeah, no chance. I won't let us bet on the bears under this, that number. Do we want to go near Packers Eagles? I have a strong conviction on one side of that game. Oh, well, let's hear it. The Packers are favored by two and a half at Green Bay. What is your strong conviction? I really think this is an opportunity for the Eagles to re-assert themselves at the top of the NFC class.

I think the Eagles are super live to go get the one seed in the NFC. It is there for the taking in view of the trades that they've made. They have told us that that is their desire. They have been very good against Green Bay historically. and the argument in favor of Green Bay is will they show up or won't they? Every other game they've played the good teams in the league very well Green Bay has, but it is inexcusable to have the loss that they had last week against Carolina and their receiver room, the only guy that I can look at and know confidently

is healthy coming into this game is Dobbs. Who wears the kazoo helmet? Yes, he does. Yes, he does. I think that it is yet to be written how impactful the absence of Kraft is on that offense. Manthy Golden, maybe not playing at all.

Who knows? Craft especially, though, is the thing to me. Yeah, Kraft. We talked about that. Shail and I talked about that Tuesday. He looked like, she'll thought he was the best head in the league. Right.

Yes, the different things that Green Bay could do, they can't really run the ball, they don't really run the ball, I think it's a great situation to get into the Eagles. Can I interest you and maybe a little slight bump up and some sort of teaser-parallis situation with the Eagles to get them over four? I'll listen. I think you're right on the Eagles.

My one fear is Green Bay, Green Bay doesn't turn the ball over, and they're great on third down. They're second and third down, second and turnover. So when they have the ball, they have it for a while. Eagles are 26th on third down, 22nd in causing turnovers, right? And my fear is you take the Eagles and the Packers just have these long, boring, seven-minute drives. And then the Philly gets a ball back and they go three and out, and the Packers have the ball for eight minutes again. And this was playing that in my head.

DVOA, Green Bay, 7th, and Philly's 11th. I'm with you on, I like the Eagle Spot because I agree with you on Kraft. I think that was a bigger issue than maybe the lines are giving credit for. Do you have an opinion on Chargers Steelers? Because that was in the maybe camp for me. I think that it is basically a West Coast home game for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think that the place is going to be packed with Steelers fans. And I thought that the adjustment that they made on defense,

and the way that they played the Colts was amazing. Now, yes, they generated six turnovers. Are they going to generate six turnovers against the Chargers? It feels unlikely. But they showed an ability to adapt. And they took away from the Colts, what the Colts like to do. And we've been sitting here waiting for this Pittsburgh defense to reveal itself. to us all season long.

They worked into high cover. They just showed a lot of flexibility that they, for whatever reason, been unwilling to show us earlier. And I think that this. Did they play some Robert Bernays? I think they did. Did the steak sauce splits? They think they had that one.

There was some simulated pressure, some simulated. Some simulated. Worcestershire pressure. Oh, interesting. Yeah. Did they do any ex-robber? There was probably some ex-robber Tabasco. Well, the stats say Pittsburgh's defense fucking sucks.

Yeah, they do. They give up, this year they've given up 278.3 passing yards per game. We watched it. Per game. Yep. Watch it all season long. They're 32nd in the league against the pass. And there's second in turnovers, which makes no sense.

Here's a concerning stat. The Cleveland Browns have 134 first downs. Would you say that's a good offense? Doesn't feel like it. The Steelers have 139. The five more. They basically have the same number of first downs as the Cleveland Browns. It makes me nervous.

They're also 30th in the run. I don't know. This is still a maybe to me. Let's go to, the parley section of this where I have the Bills Dolphins minus nine and a half and I would love to put the Bills money line

with a pick and adjust the line just a little bit where we have the Bills first run third pass or third yards per play Miami's 30th against the run 28 yards per play Miami Stinks by the way

in case you haven't noticed Buffalo's defense second against the pass all these good men matchup stuff. Plus, like, every week we've had a new MVP, and this feels like it's the Josh Allen. Hey, actually, I'm the MVP week where he just like kills the dolphins. Well, he is favored right now. After that. No, I know. But nobody's like, each week somebody's had a, is he the MVP? But we haven't had the Josh Allen. Is he the MVP week yet? Maybe it's this week. I would love to put them in with something. And I was thinking that something

could be the Ravens in Minnesota, unless you want. want to do the Eagles. Let me hear the, the, I love the Ravens this week, so you're not going to have to sell me. Ravens, the, the, this line drifted a little high. This line went to Ravens minus four and a half in Minnesota. But it's an absolute must one for Baltimore and they're completely healthy. And could Minnesota really beat the? Detroit, Baltimore, and back-to-back weeks?

Nope. That's what I keep thinking. Nope. So I was thinking, like for instance, we could take the Ravens line to two and a half, throw it with the Bill's money line and that gets us in the minus 120. Fine. We could also take the Eagles line up to four and a half, put that with the Bill's Money Line, same bet.

I think we should do one of those two. I'd rather put, because one of those. two bets, I feel like we need as a standalone bet. So which one do you... Well, we can figure that out. Yeah. Well, let's, we'll go through the rest of these. Just talk me out of the Falcons Colts. Falcons plus six and a half.

I'm dying to bet the Colts. I'm dying to bet the Colts. It's in Indy. I'm sorry, it's not in Indy. It's in Berlin. It's in Berlin. It's in Germany. Yeah, it's in Berlin. Which franchise of those two do I think is going to be better prepared. Like the fucking

Falcons can't figure out how to travel to San Francisco and be competitive. They can travel internationally and have their shit together enough to put up, you know, a modicum of resistance against this Colts team

that's dying after getting its pants pulled down and, you know, and on that stays with Pittsburgh to show everybody. Awards concussed and Gardner are supposedly cleared, but Gardner is going to go from the Jets to the Colts and then fly to Germany

and that's his first game and he's going to be good. I'm a little dubious. Better than their alternative. Better than the alternative, that's for sure. I thought the Falcons were pretty good last week. They were. I thought they played a good game against the past. They did. They did play a great.

I don't think they're bad. They're not good. This does violate our Europe rule, which is why I had to put an asterisk next to. I would probably lean Falcons, but I think we have to stay away. Okay. Fucking A, I like the Niners.

I wish I didn't. Niners are plus four and a half at home against the Rams. You're supposed to grab all those points with the Niners. That's what we're supposed to do. They played in week five. It was an overtime game. San Francisco won 26, 23. The Rams won every aspect of that game.

The Rams beat the crap out of the Niners in that game until, you know, there was a fumble at the goal line. Niners are home. there's all kinds of weird Rams kick or shit going on. So I feel like there's a free three points in this game. It's Niners plus four and a half, but it's really Niners plus seven and a half because somebody in the Rams is missing a kick.

Interesting. There's a lot of like the McShay versus Shanahan stuff, I think has been overblown because the Rams did beat them twice last year. But it's a nice fun, long rivalry. And I don't know. know. How good do you think the Rams are? Because the advanced metrics say they're better than what I feel like I'm watching with my eyes. Their defense is getable. Their secondary is super getable. It's just that they've been able to put pressure on teams and they've been

able to... Third and sack fourth and hits. Yeah, there you go. So that that is how they've addressed the fact that their secondary is crazy vulnerable. I think it's too many points. I have it marked down. Okay. Next one, Bucks Pats. Bucks minus two and a half in Tampa against the Pats. Listen,

we're under 500 and it's week 10, and I have no problem going against my team for one week. I'll still root for them. Okay. I think this line's too low. I just think this is a horrible matchup for the Pats. I don't like it at all because it's not going to, the Pats are great stopping the run.

It's not going to really matter. I don't even think Bucky Irving's going to play. I think Tampa is going to throw the ball and move the ball and do the stuff they do with Baker and the Pats Atlanta was going

up and down the field on them throwing the ball last week and it really you know I think they have problems covering tight ends they have problems

covering in running backs there's receiver issues with the Pats whereas I booty the moment he left the game that they were kind of never the same they lost like their

deep threat when they lost him and Diggs is playing half the game if you look at the snaps like Matt Collins played 60% and the snaps last week and Kyle Williams

played 50%. And also like Romandres hurt they're not really running the ball and I just think they're due for a shit game. They haven't been down

by 10 points to anybody since week one. This, I don't like the spot. Great. I think this... We're in lockstep. Yeah, I was worried that I was going to have

to talk to you into this. I absolutely love Tampa. I feel bad because I didn't want to go anti-pats, but we have... It's not anti-pats. This is number 107.

We have to do we get it. Yeah. We're in, locks up to Tampa as a play this week. At that number. Plus, if the Pat's win, I'm happy to sacrifice to the winner 107 pick. Fuck them.

Texans, Jaguars. I can't believe we're going back to the world, but I like the Texans again. I just can't with Davis Mills. I just can't do it. I just can't. Well, I might have to be one of my picks. It could be your pick.

I just, you know, I watched it. We were in a perfect situation with the Denver game. Like, I'm aware. The Jaguars let there be no doubt. I mean, Trevor Lawrence, his completion percentage over expectation, he is in the company of players like Cam, what's the, Cam Ward, and Dylan. Oh, I have his EPA, he's 46. Yes.

Fields is 37th. Two is 43rd. Kurt Cousins is 52nd. So he's barely better than Kurt Cousins, who was. dead? You want to play Houston here? I just don't think Jacksonville against that defense is doing jack shit.

So let me make the Davis Mills case for him. He's 5.19 and 1 as a starter. Oh, wait, that didn't help me. That's your opener. Now, I got to make a different case. Came in cold last Sunday. They didn't know he's going to play.

This whole week. They made a plan for him this week. Last week they didn't make a plan for him. It's like, hey, we're playing Jacksonville. Jacksonville, 27th against the pass. 31st sacks this year. Pretty good against the run. First and penalties.

That's another Jacksonville thing. They fucking have 10 penalties a game. Davis, here's the plan. You're going to do this. You're going to do this. We got Nico back. Third and five, we have this pet play for you. Well, look at how.

They had the whole week to plan them. How starved Jacksonville is in the receiver. room. They don't have Thomas or Hunter. To think that Jacoby Meyer is going to be the, they had to go in that direction. Yeah, like I watched the Raiders game last week and I don't remember him doing anything.

I remember Brock Bowers doing stuff. Sure. By the way, I forgot to mention during the indie thing. I was so mad I missed this on Tuesday. A couple people mentioned it to me. New Owner Syndrome with the sauce gardener trade. It was a basketball trade. Very good.

Very good. The daughters took over the team. Everybody loves the daughters. This was like, ah, we got a sauce gardener, let's go get him. Right. It was like a new owner. It was a classic new owner trade. It really was.

Two first gardener for sauce gardener. We got to do this. Houston's defense is top six everywhere. Yeah. I just feel like the defense wins the game. Mills makes two throws. Okay. They're going to be able to run the ball.

Yeah. It's minus, is it still minus one and a half? It's minus one and a half. Wait, the Texans are underdogs in this game. Did it flip again? It's flip. I'm telling you. Yeah, their Texans are underdogs.

They were favored four hours ago. Well, for Ringer 107 purposes, what are they? They're plus 1.5. So they're underdogs. There you go. Yeah, they're underdogs. That's what we want. Okay.

All right, we're going to take a break and then House and I are going to come back and figure out the Ringer 107 once in for all. All right, today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by Fandall. We have five picks that we like that we figured out over the long commercial break. You'll have no idea how long it was.

This is House's pick. I'm going to pass. House gets a pick every week. House, you pick the Bucks minus two and a half over the Patriots. What was your case? The case is the case that you made for out to New England. It's a tough spot.

It's bucks. it's Tampa coming off of a buy restored health and a lot of skill position even with Bucky Irvin's still missing upper class for New England New England's been impressive but this is a real heavyweight

that needs to win games to finish out the season so I like Tampa at home yeah the Pats can come out of this and still be only three losses in with only a couple games left in this season that are hard and in two Jets games as well

yeah it's a tough spot I'd be, put this way, I'd be very surprised if the Pat's won this game with some of the injuries on offense with the way they blocked the last couple weeks, 17 sacks and three weeks with the way they've been covering tight ends and running backs, this is a tough spot for them. Next pick, we're going to do a little parlay, Ravens down to minus two and a half in Minnesota. So Ravens have to win by three in a must-win game. And if you believe the Ravens are still a Super Bowl contender, there's no way they can't

win this game against J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. And we're going to put that with the Bill's money line against the Miami Dolphins. And that is exactly minus 120. House, we barely made it. If it had been one inch, another way, we lose that parley. So anyway, that's minus 120. Ravens minus two out, Bill's money line. And I could see both of those where both teams win by like two touchdowns. Me too. I feel like we're going to be smooth sailing with that parlay. Next one is another Joe House favorite. It's the Eagles plus two and a half in Green Bay. And I agree.

The craft injury, the uncertainty in the wide receiver room. The Eagles kind of needing to play a good game. All of their stats are like, eh. It's the pass rush for the Eagles that I think we're going to see for the first time. Remember how dominant they were down the stretch and through the playoffs? We have the return of Nolan Smith. We have the addition. We have the Janlon Phillips trade.

Now we've got some dudes. And look, this is the vulnerability of Green Bay. They have the training wheels on Jordan Love because that they that offensive line isn't quite 28th in run block win rate the Packers. So they don't

intimidate you with establishing the run Green Bay and they can't set up play action because teams aren't taking the run serious. So Monday that game too for this. Yeah. Yeah, this is a nice Eagles we've now reclaimed our territory spot.

I like it. So Eagles plus two and a half. That's our third pick. The Niners, this is my pick. I just think it's too many points. And I can only name four guys in their defense at this point. But Niners plus four and a half at home against the Rams. You're getting an extra three points from the missed field goal that the Rams are going to have during this game.

So it's a flash sale. It's really, you're getting it at nine or seven and a half. I just think these games are going to be close. With all these NFC West games, I just feel like that's how it's going to go all season. They're all going to come down to the wire. Maybe Seattle can elevate above these teams. You know, if the Niners, it's a little bit of a,

I hate the word must win, but it's, it's a, you don't want to go six and four, lose. Yeah, but they stole their split with the Rams. They stole that split with, by winning in week five the way they did. Yeah. I just don't want to be six and four with half my team in the hospital. Fair enough.

And then if you're the Rams, it's a little bit of a must-win because you don't want to lose every tiebreaker to the Niners potentially. But I don't know. It feels like there's some voodoo against the Niners. Fando asking me to cash out of my Niners under 10 and a half made me suspicious. We'll see if they can fight the voodoo off the same. week.

Texans plus one and a half at home against the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence favored in Houston against one of the three best defenses in the league. What are we doing? No, no, no. Here's my impression of Trevor in the third quarter. With that the beautiful locks. Here's my impression of Trevor in the fourth quarter. eyes in the back of the head eyes hands covering the eyes hands covering that back the head

demico ryan's owes us too a little bit he owes us a little bit the the 14 second drive with the minute 14 left on your own 10 yard line he owes us so anyway we're taking the texans plus one and a half so to recap bucks minus two and a half ravens minus two and a half with bill's money line parley minus 120 eagle plus two and a half, Niners plus four and a half. Texans plus one and a half. I like that we have a couple home dogs this week too.

Yeah, me. I feel the same way. Some home cooking. And I can't believe we went against my team. But that was the Ringer 107. And it was presented by a Fandle. Did you like the sauce gardener trade? I did.

I understand the- You're always a mark for trading multiple firsts for a good player. You've always loved that. Because he's a good player. Like, you don't have to wonder. He's a first round pick that is like How many of those first round picks that they traded Are going to be as good as Soss Gardner?

Tell me the answer to that And then we can assess this. But look, this Colts team Recognizes the window And recognizes they have it. It's the part of their team that is You know, the most vulnerable because of injury And, you know, the talent that they had there.

I have absolutely no issue whatsoever with them going for it. it's kind of like when you went got Marshawn Lattermare last year it was I was one of your favorite commanders that's not true and good luck to him and the rest of his

I don't think he's going to have much of a football career after this but to the rest of whatever happens to him in life good luck to him can we talk about the guillotine league really fast go ahead

before we go ahead are you still alive in the guillotine league you took all of my good players I had, this is the beauty of the guillotine. I had a great team. I mean, I had an amazing team. I just hit a week.

I had Bejohn Robinson going up against the dolphins, and he produced four fantasy points. I had Caleb Williams in a good situation. Oh, yeah, I can't remember. You took all my guys. I had Bucky Irving. So there's two strategies. One is in the guillotine league for people that don't know,

you start out with 17 teams, 16 teams, however many teams you want to have. lowest team every week gets voted out. So we were, we started going to share and just gets cut. Well, it's just cut. You're just cruelly. That's it. And your players become available and people can bid on them.

And there's two ways that can go. One is you have a thousand bucks to spend bidding more for the guys like when Bijan Robinson becomes available or you try to get cagey and see how long you can last with the team you picked. Pick around the edges, but kind of wait until there's less. teams. And I chose the latter strategy and almost lost twice. Like, I probably should have lost. I don't really think I should be alive, but I looked out. I had a couple of words, like barely made it. You, you beat me on Monday night football with Isaiah Pacheco running for 48 years or whatever.

That's how I got cut. And we both had terrible weeks and I barely edged you out. But I had the most money this week. And somebody's team got cut. And all of a sudden it was Josh Allen was available and James Cook and Jamar Chase and Jalen Waddle, all these dudes. And I had the most money. I had like $630.000. Jeff Chow had $500. And then nobody else had more than like $180. Yeah. And so I was like planning it out. And I actually outwitted Jeff Chow who runs business for the ringer in Spotify studios. I'd outwitted him. Just flat out. I bid $251 for Josh Allen and 2-51 for James Cook, thinking Jeff would go for one, beat him on both of those, and then got your bar chase too.

And now I'm in the driver's seat. And I just stuck it to Jeff Chow. It was great. I'm sure. Mr. Business. Yeah. Who's the business guy now?

I don't, I don't, I'm not privy. Once you get cut, you can't go back and look. And honestly, I don't know why I would. But what did he bid? What Chow bid on those guys? I don't know. You know what he bid? Not enough.

So here's my team. Josh Allen, Jemir Gibbs, James Cook, Emeka, Buka, Quentin Johnston, George Kittles, Sam LaPorta, and D.K. Metcalf. It's a pretty good team. That's a pretty good one. It's pretty good. And this is what happens. If you can somehow survive and then go all in and like week nine, week 10. But now that everyone knows that strategy, I don't know what the counter strategy is to that.

I guess it would just be drafting. Don't get, don't have guys get hurt. That's, you know. Well, that's the thing. The other guillotine league I was in, we had Lamar, and he got hurt in week four. And it was like, I'm done. That's right. Yeah, you're done.

You got to get a little healthy. But you liked it, though. I loved it. Are you kidding me? I did a good job drafting. I was very proud of myself. You just catch a dry week and you're done. You just go home.

I'd rather be done versus, like, have the carcass of my mediocre fantasy team drag on for 14 weeks. You know what I mean? I'm in a league where my team. team is one in eight. I did an auto draft and the rankings that it was CBS. I'll call them out. I mean, it was an abomination.

They should be embarrassed claiming that they have fantasy experts. All I did was hit auto draft and went to like the 10th overall pick in a non-PPR league. They gave me Lamar Jackson. Like what? I need a fucking running back at the 10th pick.

Whoever the best running. Well, couldn't you have said that? in your settings? This is the point of auto draft. Right. You're the fucking expert. I'm not telling you the strategy. Maybe AI will be used for some good.

So stupid. So it's fine. But I do diligently set a lineup every week because I have integrity and it's for the integrity of the league. I mean, I made six trades in the or acquisitions this past week. But yes. Did you just praise yourself for making moves in a fantasy league?

Just maintaining the integrity. of the league not just walking away from my hot trash auto draft CBS bot go fuck yourself hot garbage

scenario hey one other thing before we go it looks like it looks like the Sunday ringer pregame show is going to be available

on all the Fandul Rsns let's go how about that so if you have one of those Fandle RSNs where

you have you know like you see golic and golic ads or you have that like that's usually one of them we're going to be on those and we're going to be on them with the ringer gambling show as well so a little extra little extra market share a great way to spend your sunday morning all we do is give out big fat winners it's 11 a.m. this week though we're starting early 11 a it's a two hour show now 11 a.m. Why can't we start at 10? All the way to kick off fine yeah start at 930 I'm here we're doing the we're doing the games we're trying to give out winners there's a good chance

I'll be sitting in some airport watching it because my flight's been delayed for 19 hours you might have to host guest the lines with Salon just come down to D.C.

You could have a great time. I might, that might have to do that actually. Come see Cornheiser. We'll have a great time together. Cornhazer. He's never leaving. Leaving what?

He just signed again. Why would we? It's a great life. He's been telling us he was going to retire for 10 years. He plays golf and he does the show. It's a great life.

I really admire it. Do you have any farewell thoughts for ESPN bet? Oh, is it gone? It's gone. They're wrapping up. They tried. They tried. Best of luck.

Too late to the party. A little bit late. Yeah, they, they, it's a wrap. Okay. Anything else before we go? Nothing. Okay. Some great golf in Europe.

Great golf in Europe? Well, it's actually, it's the, DP World Tour that is playing in their race to the whatever cup. I think they're in the Middle East. They are in the Middle East. They're playing somewhere in Dubai. But all the best guys are playing. The entire Ryder Cup team for Europe is playing.

Ah, the team you won money out. And Tyrol Hat. Yeah, it was your team. Those are your guys. Yeah. All right, House. Good times. So my favorite NBA trade that I came up with was which one?

What was the last one? Well, honestly, Kobe Jones, Kobe Wade. No, I like John Morant to Miami better. That should. So that was the chalk one. Makes a lot of sense. It's a winner. For content.

All right. See, House. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to House and Gahau and Eduardo as well. I am going to hopefully have a podcast on Sunday. I'm flying back on Sunday. to the West Coast, is this going to be a good idea

with what's going on with airports right now? We're about to find out. So if you see me Sunday night, I'll be happy, you'll be happy. Everyone will be happy. Have a great weekend.

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