The Bill Simmons Podcast - Guess the 2025 NFL Over/Under Win Totals With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: March 27, 2025

Surprise! The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to guess the win totals for every NFL team by division for the 2025-26 season, closing the show with Parent Corner! Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producers: Kyle Crichton and Chia Hao Tat Order Michelob ULTRA today, available on Doordash!  ENJOY RESPONSIBLY © 2025 ANHEUSER-BUSCH, MICHELOB ULTRA® LIGHT BEER, ST. LOUIS, MO. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I put up a Prestige TV podcast yesterday. We covered the studio, the first two episodes. People like the show. Me, Sean Fantasy, Joanna Robbins talked about that. I'm also gonna be there on Sunday night, White Lotus, episode seven. We already have that one in the bank. It's the last one we were able to tape ahead of time

because it looks like no screeners for the last episode, the 90 minute one. So we're gonna be doing that live two Sundays from now. New rewatchable is coming Monday night. We are doing, I'm in Boston right now. We are doing, I'm in Boston right now. We're doing a Good Will Hunting tonight. So you can hear that as a podcast of the live show on Monday night. And then we're sticking around all weekend. Coolidge Corner, a place that I live for a little bit, once upon a time. We're doing a little Coolidge Corner

film festival. They have a theater that's been there forever and they've actually taken care of it. And it's one of the best places to see movies in Boston. So we're showing heist movies, Boston movies all day, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I think we did nine movies total. Me and Sean and Chris are going to be there for a couple of them to talk afterwards. So if you're interested, I think there might be some tickets left. It's a the ringer.com slash events to go check that out. So this is fun. This is like an unexpected Christmas.

NFL went total over unders came out today and cousin Sal and I decided we miss guest the lines. We're just going to do it again. We're going to play guest the lines with the overrunners. We intentionally did not look at them. They came out on Fandl right before we taped this podcast. And that's what you're about to hear. But first Pearl PearlJet. All right, taping this on a Thursday, Cousin Sal is here. Normally we just play Guess the Lines during the NFL season. We haven't seen Sal since the Super Bowl.

The saddest look on his face every year, knowing that it's come to an end. And now we came up with a new idea. Thursday, I'm doing a pod. You were available. Fandel dropping NFL over under win totals. So we said last night, I'm not going to look. You're not going to look and we're going to guess the lines. We made our guesses and we go through every team and see, and see what our instincts were. What do you think?

This is a spectacular day. A new day in our calendar. Hopefully we could keep doing this. I mean, I've been sick all week. I was in Vegas. I come back from Vegas. I'm sick every time now. It's like, yeah, come back with syphilis.

I just have a cold and it doesn't help being next to nephew. Kyle fires up like 37 lung darts in 18 hours. It kills my throat. But anyway, I got some pep in my step. This is one of the fight. If they should do this, vandals should release the win total over-unders The last Thursday in March. This would be one of the five best non football sports days of the year I mean between March Madness the four sweet 16 games opening day baseball

Yeah, and preseason over under win totals. Are you kidding me? Yeah, this is great Yeah, we should have gone live. This should have been an event. It should have been like when the NFL releases the schedule, right? We should have been the one announcing the fan door over unders for each team and trying to guess what they were. Yeah. We'll work on this.

I think next year we can do an even bigger version of it. I know you go right from football just to a series of, uh, of wagering on sports. You don't really know that well. There's a basketball, like you're, you're, I'm sure you made a shit load of preseason baseball bets, March madness. You got some golf coming. There's some weird tennis stuff happening. What's the dumbest thing you've been on in the last six years? Joker in the Miami open. I have to wake up and bet soccer. And now there's like, you have to have like nine streaming services to have all the soccer capabilities

for the world to worldwide gamble on it. But yeah, that's basically it. Just nonsensical soccer in the morning. Like what country, what region of the world are we in? All of them, all of them. All the parts of the world? Yes, is Greenland a country or do they belong to us now? I don't know, I bet them all.

Is it continent? I don't know. Are they our 51st state? I haven't checked. Our cherished 51st state. Yes. Yeah. Were you able to bet on Stephen A. versus LeBron? Is there like a future bet there? Who's favored?

Stephen A. make no mistake. Stephen A. would swing at him. He would. That's the best mistake I've ever heard. Stephen A. they started first take today. Yeah. Two minute intro from the show credits of Molly. I went to Steve and A.

Yeah. Seventeen straight minutes. And it was incredible, compelling TV. He's an artist. Was it really? I was really into it. Yeah, I really enjoyed it. He's really good.

Yeah. I don't know where this goes, but I'll tell you this. If you're going to do the who has more to lose sweepstakes, I'm going to say LeBron has more to lose if this just gets worse and worse and worse. Interesting. Really? Yeah. Well, I'm not saying he has more to lose. I'm saying he's just more famous. Yeah.

For Stephen A. Like, this is great. I'll keep this going as long as you want. I don't know that LeBron's more. Stephen A. could be our next president. I don't know who's more famous. Maybe that's how Stephen A wins. He becomes the next president and he abolishes the NBA max contract.

That'll be his first thing. Okay. NFL regular season win totals. So we're gonna go by, you wanna go alphabetically or you wanna go by divisions? How do you wanna do it? Probably divisions. I mean I would really like to do 15 minutes on Jokic's No Look Pass and another 20 on whether Steph's tunnel shot went in.

But OK, if you want to get right into it, it's fine. The tunnel shot. Is that Steph's fault that it was Senate? Should he have retweeted the angle and said that didn't actually go in? He needs to apologize. I was saying that he's no longer a first ballot Hall of Famer. I mean, he now drops the two or three, but I thought my favorite thing about it

is typical NBA fashion, it took three days to review. Like, why didn't we break that second angle an hour later? We found out on Thursday. Mark Davis is still at the monitor. Yeah. Okay. Divisions, yeah, let's do divisions. We'll start with the AFCs, Buffalo Bills. They went 13 and four. We're going to tell you the only things that we know that we did work on were

what other two divisions each team is playing. Right. So the Buffalo Bills were 13 and four last year. Next year they're playing the AFC North, not awesome. NFC South, pretty good. So I'm going to say that's, it's about an average degree. Yeah, it's a wash. I think that's fair. Lem, we should also say, like, you know, we may have like some liens here,

but these aren't our official picks. You don't wanna tarnish your, what were you, 27 and five last year? Yeah, I'm never, I'm gonna go five and 27 next year. I'll never top 27 and five. No, we're just- So we're still missing like two key components. We haven't seen the draft, obviously, and we don't know the schedule. missing like two key components. We haven't seen the draft obviously,

and we don't know the schedule. We know who everybody plays. We don't know like rest advantage. We don't know like, you know, who has three road games in a row and stuff like that. Those are crucial. We know, we don't know what's happening in the draft. None of this stuff.

Just like, and we're trying to guess, what do we think FanDuel thought would be the perfect over under? Because the goal of this, when they're putting out these over unders in March, how do we get the most action both ways on the over to under? Last year Dallas, they put it a win too high. Everybody bet. Well, I'm sorry it was your team, but everybody bet the under, everybody kept that in the under and they had to move it from 10 and a half to

nine and a half, which was a really bad sign. So one of the things we're interested this year is snapshot of in March when this comes out and then how does it shift? They'll start putting action. If people are banging the over, like if people start banging the Patriots over, they'll make it a minus 140, minus 145. So you'll get a sense of like,

oh, who is America really starting to get behind? Which can either be a good thing or a bad thing. So Buffalo, I went with 11.5. So. 11 and a half wins as the over under. What'd you have? I said 12. And again, I'm looking at these for the first time.

You can't say 12. You have to do a 0.5, right? No, no, no. Half of them were regular square numbers. Oh, really? Oh, I didn't even know we were doing that. Okay. Yeah.

I wrote down the last year's they were like, uh, you were right though. Of course. So the cheating, uh, right off the top worked out 11 and a half. I knew this would be a new way for you to get bad people. You wouldn't guess the lines last year. And there's been a lot of talk about you and whether you've been cheating. This doesn't count. This doesn't count.

Like, are you using PDs? What's going on over there? So they had 13 wins last year, and it's 11 and a half. Yep. And that's to say that the division got better or you just can't make them 12? Well, we should also mention, this is crucial too,

minus 140 already. For the over. At least I'm in Boston, so I can bet it, and I could do a live bet as we're talking but Minus 140 already which makes me wonder do they bump that at some point? But I think Miami's probably a little either the same or a little worse than last year Jets Who knows the Pats are the only one that you could say they'll definitely be better Yeah, so

And we as far as we can tell Buffalo didn't get worse. So I think they're fine I think that is you know, you know what they have out of BOSA is good. They just need you know, basically They have BOSA. They're gonna get the seven BOSA games. Yeah, I mean he looks awesome. That's good I mean, he's definitely gonna miss time, but they extended Alan which is which is great I mean, we don't 11 and a half 12 is fine. So you get it. Oh I forgot to mention one variable that you have to factor in is the schedule. So we're doing this by how they finished last year.

So AFC is Buffalo's first place schedule next year. They'll have a bunch of night games, so all that stuff. Miami, eight and nine last year. AFC North, NFC South, second place schedule. And whatever this is, I might make a live under bet right now. What do you have for this one? I have nine. Nine.

Why you really went round numbers? Yeah. Yeah. How about half of mine? No, I got more, more of haves, but yeah, I might be one. I might be low here. Yeah. Yeah. They're eight, nine. I might be low. I said seven and a half I don't like the vibe of that Dolphins team at all and the answer is Eight half eight and a half. So I get it. I'm going under. Yeah, that's a guaranteed under for me. Hmm

Well that eight last one I maintain JJ talking about this or should I do it? Go ahead. You do it. You got you start. I'll jump in. I don't know, bro. Eight and a half slow. Some must must win season for McDaniel. It's a must win. It's got to win 10 games or is that keeping his job, bro? You're going to tell me Zach Wilson is going to step in there and do the job.

I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it for sure. We think he goes under. That's a discussion for a different day. All right. Eight and a half, even money both ways. So my prediction is that's going to be an underbet for a lot of people. All right. Jets are next. They were five and 12. Third place schedule next year. Justin Fields now a quarterback. Seventh pick in the draft. We'll see what they do with that. The one thing that could affect this,

if they take Shadr or Sanders with the seventh pick, and basically get nothing out of that first round pick, because they already took fields. So, I'm gonna say six and a half for these guys. What do you have? All right, I get this. I said six, and did you see it? It is five and a half. Yeah. Wow

Amazing it was nine and a half with Rodgers. It's five and a half with Justin Fields. That's a They went way too high on Rodgers, which we know but five and a half. What a slap in the effing Empire's that's too. I think that's's too low don't you new coach Aaron Glenn fields different look then then Rogers but not necessarily a worse look mm-hmm seventh pick in the draft I don't know I haven't seen like all right so what how many games will they be favored in? One in their division. Yeah, maybe the home Pats game, the home Dolphins game. Maybe none of the AFC North games, probably.

No. Couple of them in the NFC South. Carolina, if it's home against Carolina. Yeah, I think that's about fair. If it's home against New Orleans. What a mess. And then maybe one other shit team. All right. All right. This is the most exciting one.

The Patriots, four and 13. New coach, just spent money all over the place on a bunch of different positions. They have the fourth pick in the draft. Seems like about a 50-50 chance of getting a dual-carder at Travis Hunter. Drake may year two. To say the coaching staff will be better

is an understatement. And they're gonna have a fourth place schedule and they get to play the NFC South. There's a lot of things lining up for them to be the Washington. This could be 10 and a half and you're going over. I don't know. 10 and a half I'd be insulted. I think it should be 12 and a half. What do you have?

I have seven and a half. Yeah, that's what I had too. And the answer is seven and a half. All right. That's fine. That's fair. Minus one 15 already. All right. That's fine. That's fair. That's what you want to be. Minus 115 already.

All right. So we're two, you're up 211 with me right now. Yeah. Does that go up? What if they get Abdul Carter or Chonter in the draft? Does that go up? Well, you're very influential and I know you're- I'm not influential with this.

You're over the moon about Stefan Diggs. You got your way there. I'm not. That're I'm not influential with this you're over the moon about Stefan digs you got your way there that what that one I'm I'm I'll work by the end of April I'll be over the moon on the dick signing right now I'm kind of still confused although it does seem like they can get out of it after a year but the 32 year old receiver coming off ACL surgery I don't know you're not gonna be in a spot where you're going to want to lose that last game, right? Which is where you were, which when we typically go over some of these teams

over unders, you have to factor that in. And now I think, I think you could be an eight and nine team. You should be happy with eight and nine and Drake may second year. Well, the question is, could you be better than that? And that's what we said with Washington last year where they checked every box and both of us were, we both jumped on the over, but we kind of drew the line. And could they be a playoff team? You need to watch the Denver type situation, right?

I think your situation is even closer to Denver, even though it's, I know Nick was a rookie coming in, but older, whatever. Yeah. I think that's kind of what you have to do. Sneak up there. It's the recipe that works every year. And the question is whether it's the Patriots or another crappy team making the jump. It's did you improve your coach? Do you have a QB? Is your schedule easy?

If you have those three things, it becomes very realistic to go from four to 10 wins. We see it all the time. And I think they're a great candidate for this. So we will see. I mean, you already sold a nine part documentary for the 2025 Patriots. So I mean, good job by you, I guess. Did they green light that yet?

Yeah. It's just about Drake May. It's not about the Patriots. We're just with, it's like Truman Show. Remember that movie Truman Show? It's that with Drake May. We just, we follow him around. Um, all right, we're going to take a quick break and then we're going

to do the rest of the divisions. This episode is brought to you by Mickalob Ultra. We are getting close to the NBA playoffs, which means we are getting close to the NBA finals, one of my favorite sporting events, not just because it's really fun basketball at the highest possible level, but all of the historical legacy stuff. It's my favorite. You've heard me talk about on the podcast many times. Speaking of finals, Mikhailov-Ultra has given me the chance to win tickets to the NBA finals, which I hope Boston is a part of.

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detail message and data rates may apply void where prohibited. All right, come back. We're into the AFC North. There's a world where this is the best division next year, depending on what happens with Cleveland. Like if they took Sanders at second and he was good right away with the rest of the team they have, maybe, I don't know. Yeah, let's try to remember to add up, add up the over under wins to determine who is the best division. So yeah, we'll, we'll see.

This should, this could have the most. Baltimore. So the, the AFC North is playing the AFC East and the NFC North. Pretty tough. Pretty tough. So for easy games, if the bears are even mediocre to decent, there's no easy games in the NFC North and then in the AFC East, maybe the jets, maybe the dolphins, maybe the Pats, but maybe two of those three teams are like pretty frisky.

So that's a pretty tough one. Baltimore first place schedule. They're going to have Sunday night games, Monday night games. They're in the running for a Christmas game, a Thursday game. Um, you know, they're going to have another monster schedule cause they want to put Lamar on TV. I predicted 11 and a half for this. That's exactly what I said. Where are we? The answer is 11 and a half for this. That's exactly what I said. Where are we? The answer is 11 and a half. Is 11 and a half, OK, we got it, we split and one time too.

They're really that's one of those that the schedule stuff was a little easier. I would have gone 12 and a half, but I think you almost have to do the. Docket by one game, just because you know, it's probably headed for them. OK, they were 11 last year and they won 12 games. So it kind of that's a nice settling spot for them. Last year, Pittsburgh 10 and seven. Second place schedule, we talked about the AFC, San Jose North, and as far as we know, they don't have a quarterback yet.

Now they're running out of possibilities because the giant signed to the guys. Rogers is still lurking and just seems like he's milking it. There's Jackson dart possibilities I guess maybe they wanted to try to bow nix that situation I don't not a lot of other options after that unless they want to play the Mason Rudolph card and yet This is a team every year that goes over there over Do you think they factored that in with the Silver Under pick or not? You know what's weird with it?

They didn't, so yesterday Russ signs with the Giants and Fandel's like, all right, so Rogers is the only missing piece at this point, probably to the Steelers. We don't give a shit. We can't wait. Right. We can't wait. We're not gonna move at a tick

if he signs with Pittsburgh or not. I don't know. I mean, what do they have? They have Rudolph and they have Skyler Thompson. They should go for it. Go for it with those two. That'll be fun. Or trade for or trade for not Kenny Pickett, but somebody of that ilk. Yeah. Give up, I guess, six round pick. It's pretty brutal. I can't believe that I didn't figure this out.

So I guess eight and a half. That's pretty brutal. I can't believe they didn't figure this out. So I guess eight and a half. That's what it was last year. Sounds great. What'd you have? I said seven and a half. I don't like this team. What is it? Uh, you're right.

Seven and a half. Yeah. Wow. You're doing better than me. You're up, you're plus two on me right now. And, uh, there's been, there's been some juice already. That is minus one 20 as we're taping this. It is 151 Pacific East time.

Juice on the over. Yeah. Okay. Because Mike Tomlin wins nine or 10 games every single year and that's just what he does. Yeah. I don't know. This is a tough schedule.

I think everybody knows how to beat the Steelers now. Need 17 points. Go get it. Maybe even 16. Yeah. Roger's going to the Steelers is probably the most fun outcome from a content standpoint. And there's a chance that they were fans will just hate his guts by November. But we'll see how it goes. Cincinnati.

I had the hardest time with this one. I think of anyone in the AFC. They're playing the AFC, NFC North third place schedule. They re-signed their receivers. They have Burrow. We'll see what happens with Hendrickson. Middle of the first round pick. I couldn't get to the 10 range with them. I went nine and a half.

What'd you do? Oh, wow. All right. I went 10 and a half. I think they juiced this up because any fantasy player is not really paying attention to how bad their offensive line might be, wants to bet the over and the bangles,

and it was 10 and a half last year. What is it? It is 10 and a half. You're fucking killing me. What the hell? Here we go. This is your new favorite game. This is it.

This counts as four. Four weeks, I think. One thing with this one though, This is your new favorite game. This is it. This counts as four, four weeks. I think. One thing with this one though, there's already a lot of juice on the under. It's minus 130, the under 10 and a half. So I might be right in two months. I don't see 11 wins for this team. That's a lot.

That 11 wins makes them one of the four best teams in the AFC. And you would take Buffalo over them You take KC over them. You would definitely take Baltimore over them and Then then it comes down to would you take take like are they in the Texans Chargers? kind of class or Higher than that because this this that over under says they're higher than that. I'm with you I'm as right about the Bengals as I am as wrong

about the Browns, and I feel like betting them to win 11. So it's gonna be a tough schedule. They always get off to a slow start. I said they lost Alex Capa and Trent Brown, so it could be one of those years where Burrows running for his life. So I don't love them with 11 wins. Yeah, we still don't know what's happening with Hendrickson.

Cleveland, three and 14 last year, fourth place schedule, and no cap space whatsoever. Mm-hmm. Kenny Pickett maybe is the quarterback, unless they take Sanders. I love what you said. What'd you say that was the funniest trade ever? It was Pickett.

Somehow Philly got like a six round pick out of it to trade Pickett, turn Pickett. Somehow Philly got like a six round pick out of it to trade picket, turn picket it into Dorian Thompson Robinson. And we're like, we need a pick. DTR. Like, we need like a six rounder. That's gotta be it. I, uh, I went low.

I went five and a half. You know, I said five and a half too. I'm regretting this. I think it could be even lower. They're miserable. Nailed it. Five and a half. Is it?

Okay. Yep. So juice on that one're miserable. No, nailed it. Five and a half. Is it? Okay. Yep. So juice on that one too already, minus 125. So people are banging the over. If you're banging the over, there's a case for it. You have to think they're taking Sanders and that he's going to be good right away, right?

He's bowed next next year for them. And I don't know, I guess that's the case. This is a weird year with the quarterbacks. It really is. There might be actually too many quarterbacks versus teams that are going to take quarterbacks in the first round. I know I'll be wrong because everybody takes quarterbacks early, but are, are the Browns and Titans definitely taking a quarterback or the Giants like Titans

are, I think Titans, I think cam ward is pretty locked into that one. All right McShay McShay had some intel in his newsletter day that he thought there was a possibility the Giants were trying to trade up To one and basically got the word that Titans were taking word Everyone seems to think he's going first the odds reflect it right now I don't think the minus 1200 on Fandl to be the first pick. I thought I'd go for some of those. I put money on Dart and Sanders just thinking like, maybe someone does something really stupid here, but because I don't feel like we've heard a lot about why no awards getting a

little bit buzzed, but not to warrant minus 1200. I told our guy Jack at Fandl. I said I wanted them to have the Bill Simmons runs around his house with his arms up in the air, screaming euphorically, one, two, three, four, draft scenario that I want to be able to bet. Oh, that's right. Ward goes first, Cleveland takes Sanders second,

Giants take Travis Hunter third, and then we get Abdul Carter fourth, and that I'm running around my house like this. That's fun. And I want to be able, and by the way, we should be able to bet that they don't have the exact order draft things Yet because I think it's our way. They usually do it two weeks before the draft. I want it now Yeah, we're with you like fucking put it up. Let's go right Bill So I want to bet all kinds of scenarios bangs his shoulder on the fridge separates it much like Abdul Carter All right, I see South Bangs his shoulder on the fridge separates it much like Abdul Carter Alright a FC South

Now they're playing the AFC West and the NFC West this year, what are your thoughts on that? I think that's a that's fine. I think that's fine. They play themselves. So that's what's eat. That's what's good They play themselves. So that's what's good. That was a tepid endorsement. You know what I'm also looking at? So let's add that up. 33 wins for the AFC East and 35 for the AFC North. Okay.

That number is about to drop for the AFC. So Houston 10 and 7 last year and then they're playing the West and the West. I think you could argue they're worse. I don't know when Tankdell's coming back. Diggs is gone. He was gone anyway. They traded Tunsel. They got a second round pick for him. The AFC South, I'm assuming, will be a whiff better than it was last year. And they're playing a first place schedule. I wanted to go 10 and a half and I couldn't get there.

I went nine and a half. What'd you do? That's what I have. There's a nine and a half. It can't be 10. We'll see. I, I did think about the round 10. Yep.

Nine and a half. Ooh, breaking. Got it right. Yeah. Not only do we get it right. Minus one 60 on the under. So that's the biggest. Oh, breaking. You got it right. Well, not only do we get it right. Minus 160 on the under. So that's the biggest.

So the most action we've seen so far is that. Minus 160. Vegas doesn't like Houston. They're a weird team, right? Fired their offensive coordinator. Yeah. They should mow through this division. And they were in, how confident were we in CJ Stroud last year?

And then we didn't get that confidence back until like the first round of the playoffs. So it's strange. They signed a lot of one year players, Cam Robinson, Denell Hunter, Trent Brown. We'll see what happens. Indianapolis, eight and nine last year, second place schedule. Our guide to theo is a little higher on the Anthony Richardson, don't count this guy out, he was banged up last year.

This is gonna be the FU comeback year for Richardson. If that doesn't happen, Daniel Dimes is right behind him. What'd you got? I want seven and a half. I want to have a strong opinion about Jones. I'm not there yet, but I feel like, I have no reason to support him, but maybe that was as disastrous a situation

as you could come from, going to your Giants. Giants, torn ACL Giants. Yeah, and now coming to the Colts, maybe, maybe that's a good deal. Oh, sounds like you like it. I have seven and a half, what'd you have? We're on par here, seven and a half for me too. And it's seven and a half and minus one 10 both ways. Not a lot of cold sections.

All right. So you're still up plus two on me, but we've nailed the last couple. Okay. This one was a hard one. Jacksonville third place schedule West and West four and 13 last year. You know, I, I don't know what this team does. I don't understand it. You're like, they wave Christian Kirk and then just sign another receiver for the money.

And now they're paying to two fine receivers, a double salary. Basically, I'm excited about the army brown. Yeah, not a fifth pick in the draft. Could be Gentie. Could be Tyler Warren. Uh, fifth pick in the draft. Could be Gentie. Could be Tyler Warren. Everybody likes him as like an awesome tight end. They just keep throwing resources at the receiver position and never happens. But, uh, I was, I was between five and a half and six and a half for this.

New coach was the big thing for me. And I went six and a half. What'd you have? Did I go too high with seven and a half? I just feel like all these teams are the same You did not go too high seven and a half. Whoa Simmons you could quit now. You want to cash out hit the cash out button. Is there a bet back? What's that bet back thing? Fendle has? Not only is it seven and a half minus 130 so action on the Jaguars. What am I missing?

Yeah. What are we missing? I don't know. Just bad division. Bad division, bad owner though too. Like that's why you can't ever take them. Like it doesn't ever seem to work out for them. Injuries or anything.

But I thought they were about the same as the Colts. I mean, they shouldn't be that much less than the Colts. Our agent, James Babydoll-Dixon. Yeah, our agent, James baby doll, Dixon. Yeah, babe likes to wish luck from people. We wish luck to some people from time to time. Some people recently got some luck. Oh yeah. Some, yeah, there's some people in the Hollywood industry who might have,

might've been phased out of their jobs. There was luck was wished by James baby doll. Dixon. Uh, I wish a lot. I wish everyone a lot of luck going over Jacksonville minus seven and a half. I'm just telling you right now, that's insane. I don't see it at all.

You really have to believe, this is the year with Lawrence. It's now year six. I'm not saying it's not going to happen with him, but I'm not betting that scenario, right? I don't like it either, but it all ends up being like, they come up with a number of how many games they'll be favored in, right? I don't like it either, but you know, it all ends up being like, they come up with a number of how many games they'll be favored in, right? And so that's probably it. Playing that garbage division, they'll be favored in every home game

and they'll be favored against a couple NFC Westies. At least two of the home games, one of them, yeah. Okay. Tennessee, three and 14 last year, West and West, fourth place schedule. Cam Ward, we're assuming they take him first. Yeah. I don't know their offensive line situation, if it's much better than it was last year. I was trying to think, is this the safest bet to be the worst team in the league in

the AFC next year? Tennessee. Is there any team you like less? No. And I don't know why I put this at five and a half. I think I regret that because they, they could make it nice and easy and well, I don't, I don't want to sway you, but did you go low? No, I, I had so initially I penciled in five and a half.

And then after I did all the divisions for the AFC and I was like, man, who's the worst team? Like there's gonna, we see this every year. There's a four and a half, there's a three and a half, and there's none of those in the AFC that I had. So I ended up with a four and a half. So we will see. The answer is five and a half.

Wow. Okay. Nailed me again. This is my new thing. Jesus. This is my jam. Let's just keep doing this every week. Not only is it five and a half, it's up to minus one 30.

I wouldn't go over on that at all. So if you're doing that, you're expecting cam ward to get drafted and be good right away. Right. And you're going to say like rookie cam ward is significantly better than Will Levis, which it's not inconceivable. No, I'm still having nightmares of that game one bet against Caleb Williams, who was supposed to be the rookie. I bet Will Levis had a giant lead on the Bears and then Will Levis is throwing passes from his ass. Right. Staring at pick sixes. It's just my favorite with that with you is when you then get mad at Will Levis like this was his fault. Like you bet on him. Yeah.

It's like, I can't believe this Will Levis. It's like, you can't? No signs at all? He might shoot the man today. He threw the game. If we were to write down three games that players threw, quote, whatever, I know, Fandl, we're not getting in trouble.

That's the one. That felt like what it would have looked like if somebody actually, yeah, I see what you mean. Right, if you had made a movie about it, that's what it would look like. Yeah, I see. Right. If you had to have made a, make a movie about it, that's what it would look like. Well, here's the thing. We only have the jets at five and a half Cleveland at five and a half in Tennessee at five and a half so far, we have no four and a half.

So one of those three will be at four and a half by like June or July, because that's just how this goes. That's right. That's fair. So just to recap East 33 wins North 35 South 30. Okay Going to the AFC West Which might be good for all we know

Kansas City 15 and 2 last year Playing the AFC South in the NFC East. So you're talking, um, giants are going to suck. Three of those AFC South teams might suck. Houston might not be very good. Sorry. Your Dallas team might not be very good. And Washington and Philly would be the two hard games out of those eight.

But they'll have the first place schedule, they're gonna be in all the night games, but that's about as good of a, is there a better division draw than AFC South, NFC East, maybe West, NFC West, AFC South? That's pretty good. Those would be two to three out of one. One of the teams has both Souths.

I think that's in the NFC, but one of the divisions. So I went 12 and a half for this. That's what I did. And I wonder if it's even light. Tell me what it is. It's light. It's 11 and a half. That's wrong.

That's very weird. Do your spiel. Just do it. You do it every year. Well, just the bet chiefs at six to one, bet my whole. I just do all of them. Well, well, first of all, everything you say, they go through it, they had 15 frickin' wins last year.

Every year they have a first place schedule. Every year they possibly play the first Thursday night game. Every year they're gonna play on Christmas. Every year they're gonna have six prime time games. They end up with 13, 14, 15 wins. How do you make this 11 and a half? They won the division by four games last year. All right, the Chargers might be a little better.

Raiders a tiny bit better. Is Denver gonna be better? I'm all in on over 11 and a half. That is embarrassing. That's board material. Super Bowl seven to one for them. Mahomes eight to one MVP. Yeah.

At the Mahomes layaway MVP bet plan. Was that your idea or houses? I can't remember. I mean, it's, I'm not going to, it's just so it should be out there for everybody. I just do it. Just like that every year and to win three out of five times. Yeah. The KCD, like a CD, like a savings, but yeah, that's right.

You're not going to wait seven or eight years to cash in on those. Or Chiefs plus 360 to win the conference. Just do it. Just do it every year. You win three out of the four years and you're getting incredible multiples on your, on your wagers. And they had a decent off season with the free agents. They lost Tooney, but they, you know, they got Nick Bolt. They extended Bolton, Jalen Moore, Trey Smith. They franchise tag.

They're going to be fine. Um, I'm marketing that one down. I feel like that's 11 and a half. That's 11 and a half for what? Another week. Come on. Yeah. What are we doing?

Chargers 11 and six, second place schedule, AFC South, NFC East. And, uh, I don't know. They lost some guys. Now some guys weren't playing full seasons for them. Um, the wide receiver room, we'll see what they do in the draft. Running back. I don't know if there's some scope position stuff last year, easy schedule, overachieved.

Didn't the season did not end great and and yet I felt like it's gonna be ten and a half because of Harbaugh and Herbert what'd you have? Wow I had nine and a half I don't know I think that's tough. And you hit it again you're at four. Wow. Jesus. Look at this. Look at this. Nine and a half. 10 and a half. Huh? If the chiefs are 11 and a half and you thought, yeah, I don't know.

There's still the charges. Remember, right? That. So my thinking was the her, the Harbaugh year too, with he, they weren't supposed to be as good as they were last year, but they were able to on the fly add some dudes, make some, and now like one more free agency and draft. Could the arrow be pointing up? But Vegas is saying no. I don't want to screw anything up, but I know some Chargers people,

they like the tight end out of Michigan. Lovely. Oh, okay. That could be a nice little thing for them. Denver was 10 and seven last year playing a third place schedule because the chargers passed them. That's helpful. Right. And we have them AFC South, NFC East.

I went eight and a half. Where'd you go? Yeah, I'm right there with you. Eight and a half. It's got to be. It's eight and a half. Yeah. Minus 105.

So just a whiff of action on that one toward the under. And then last but not least, this one's a hard one. The Las Vegas Raiders. They get Geno Smith and they got rid of our guy Antonio Pierce. Yeah. Who I don't feel like is probably getting hired anytime soon for another head gig. Just be my guess And they replaced them with a pumpkin Jack P Carroll

right a Lot of gum chillin Max Crosby gets extended fourth place schedule Plus a FC South plus NFC East and by your theory, you think at least in the home games, they might be favored like five times. Yeah. I went five and a half. Oh, I went a little higher.

There was six and a half last year. I think they may perceive this Geno Smith thing as an upgrade even though they didn't have, they only have four ones. I said six and a half. And you nailed it exactly. And not only did you nail it, minus 130 minus one 30 now action on the Raiders. I should have seen that one.

Interesting. You're killing me. You beat me by five. So this is the, I'm firing all my scouts and my, all my helpers. And I, I've got to, I don't know why I'm just off left and right, or here's the thing. Maybe I'm not off. Maybe we'll look back in December and be like, Oh, Simmons is first instinct. Maybe we should.

Well, that's what you should do. You should, you should mark your biggest differences and say, that's going to be. So 36 wins for that division. That's the tops. That's more than the AFC North projected. 36 for the west. And by the way, God bless Pete Carroll, but he's in his mid 70s. Gino Smith, 34 years old.

I'm not sure if they offensive line, would you even go C plus on the offensive line? Bowers we like. Yeah, there was a lot of work left with that team. There's still fourth best in the division and there's still two games behind Denver, according to this. I mean, they just drew the short straw with that division is the big issue.

He was six games. All those games are going to stink. All right. One more break and then we'll do the NFC. All right. During that commercial break, I, uh, I licked my wounds. I fired two people and, uh, and trying to come back. There's only 16 teams left and you're up five. You found your calling. You found the perfect game. And you're cheating. What was his name? Duke was in your corner and he almost didn't let you out for the seventh round here. And you're like, no, no, no, don't you dare throw that towel in.

But all right, let's see what you got. He thinks it's a damn show. He thinks it's a damn fight. Philadelphia are defending Super Bowl champions. I know that kills you just to hear those words. Ugh, disgusting. And guess what? They have endless amounts of money to just,

I know they lost some starters. They didn't lose any of their best eight or nine guys. I'm with you, man. It doesn't make sense. I don't get it. I don't care. I get people, you know, I have smart people telling me, oh, just follow the money. It's like, no, I don't wanna throw this.

Just roll it over and just keep rolling it over. And the bills do eventually. Okay, cool. Creative accounting. It's what the Niners did. Yeah, I just, I know it's sour grapes, but whatever. They're paying 50 million a year for the QB, 57 million for the two receivers. And now 12 million a year for Saquon Barkley.

Somehow that's all legal under the cap. They've Jayden Carter coming. They paid Bond who's like, oh yeah, oh, oh my God, somebody's going to grab him. Nope. They kept him. Um, but I get the bottle because you have to just keep nailing the draft. You let the veterans go and you move those draft picks. You move in and it makes sense.

It's just, it's just weird. But when the salary cap goes up 30 million every year, I just can't believe any team can afford two prime time receivers and a quarterback. The receivers thing. Yeah, the Cowboys did that. I can't believe that. They would be 90 million over the cap.

Like we just want to pay three guys and we can't do it. Right, but maybe you can pay the three guys. Maybe that's the lesson. You pay Parsons, Lamb, and Dac, and everybody else could pay three guys. Why can't you pay three guys? Yeah, just draft Georgia offensive linemen and defensive tackles and in two, three years they'll all work out.

We'll be fine. We'll dominate. What was your reaction to the, whatever was going on on the social media the last 24 hours with the guy claiming that DAC might get traded to the Cleveland Browns? I know you saw it. I ignored it.

I, you know. Can't even figure out how that would work. Well, you know, it's like, you know, when we have friends telling us, you gotta bet this, you gotta bet this and depending on the friend, you're like, no, I'm gonna stay away. That's kind of how I was with this rumor mill. Like whoever was passing it along, I was like, oh, that guy has profitability.

This is dumb, but yeah, that might be tough. So the thing would be, you would take Deshawn's contract and trade DAC and just get killed for a year, but you would then be able to reset your, I don't even get, but be you would take Deshawn's contract and trade Dak and just get killed for a year, but you would then be able to reset your, I don't even get, but now you wouldn't have a quarterback? They would have to lead Jerry off. In handcuffs, a straight Jack, the guys at the White Coats would just have to take him away

at that point. He's like, I've traded Dak Prescott for Deshawn and a future second round pick, and I'm going to become a professional actor. Right. Taylor Sheridan is building a new show around me as an aging NFL owner who's lost his mind. Take three, three cheerleaders of your choice to I'm out of here. Whatever you want.

Philadelphia, 14 and three last year. Yikes. That's not true, is it? Yeah. Playing the NFC, NFC North and the AFC West. That's pretty hard. Yeah. So your easiest games are Vegas and Chicago out of those eight. Not to mention first place schedule. They're playing Thursday, the first game of the year.

Not to mention no one ever wins this division two years in a row. I'm just not allowed. I really wanted to go 12 and a half and I couldn't do it and I'm an 11 and a half. That's where I'm. It's got to be 11 and a half. And it's 11 and a half. This is the best. Even money both ways. I can't. I swear I'm not cheating. I can't I swear I'm not cheating Philly minus 165 to win the division by the way. Oh just for the record since we did the AFC ones Casey's minus 150 Texans plus 140 Baltimore minus 135 and the bills are minus so those 10 those are new to those divisions weren't up till today either. That's oh really? Yeah, that's great.

Now they just had conference and and Super Bowl. Pat's plus 650. Bengals plus 190. So it looks like the opportunity would be the AFC South. If you can talk yourself into the cults of plus two ninety. And I'm not sure I want to talk. That's where they are. Plus two ninety. I don't know.

Texans were? 160 or something? Minus, Texans are plus 140, Jags are plus 250. Plus 140 Texans? Yeah, I like the Texans. We can't bet the Souths. Come on, let's not do it. And then Chargers plus 330 and Broncos plus 490.

Raiders 12 to one if you want to get excited about that. For your division, well, let's do the overrunners first. Broncos plus 490. Raiders 12 to one if you want to get excited about that. For your division, well, let's do the overrunners first. All right, coming back. So we have Washington. 12 and five last year. I forgot they won that many games. I knew they were a playoff team, but shit.

That's an unbelievable record. The Pats got 12 and five 5 I'm gonna lose my mind There was six and a half and they won 12 games. Oh, yeah, they almost doubled it. Yep second place schedule NFC North AFC West I Battled between nine and a half and ten and a half for this and I went ten and a half All right. I upped it from nine and a half to ten. So I have ten you have ten and a half Motherfucker nine and a half to 10. So I have 10, you have 10 and a half. Motherfucker, nine and a half. Really?

Wow. Wow, no trust. Little action on the under too. Minus 120 under. Do you think they're spending? Interesting. In a dumb way here? Like, you know, like, they give Ertz and Debo.

I don't, is he gonna make a difference? Laramie Tunsel. I feel like they, Houston gave him up too easily. Maybe there's something there more than Bobby Wagner. Some, some of these signings, Ken Law, I don't know. How is this team three wins worse if Daniels is healthy? Let's say, let's say he plays the whole year. How would it, how would they not be a 10 win team?

Oh, three words because they won 12. Yeah. Yeah. Let's say he plays the whole year. How would they not be a 10-win team? The team was... Oh, three words, because they won 12. Yeah. Yeah, they won 12. And they won in the playoffs. And now, nine and a half is their over-under? That seems weird to me. I think they're anticipating the schedule

is gonna be harder, but that's kinda nuts. I wonder if they look at like point differential from last year, like was that really a 12-win year, or was it't you know? Also really good coaching staff. Yeah, nobody left. They kept everybody Mm-hmm. It's a weird one. I'm gonna mark that one down. So plus 100 over nine and a half wins for them right now The Cowboys Do you go eight nine or seven and ten last year, what did we decide you try to give me an extra win They were seven and ten I'm going to eight. I figured this is a team that won 12 games three years in a row.

They fell apart last year. This is America's team. They can't give everyone free money. I have eight. What is it? Seven and a half. Here comes the comeback, baby. I'm back down to minus five.

Wow. Seven and a half and plus 100 on the over. I like the ender. That's so embarrassing, man. That is a bad news. Why are you guys going to be good? What's the case? Is DAC being healthy? Because we were selectively aggressive during the free agent period.

We extended OSA. We got Fowler, a guy with 10.5 sacks last year. What does selectively aggressive mean? Is that even? I've never heard that phrase in my life. I'm telling you, exactly what it is. You signed Javante Williams and Miles Sanders. You get your punt, not only your punter, your punt returner, annual long snapper tied up.

You get that. We're good. Seven and a half. Wow. Might have to bring baby doll back in to wish you a lot of luck. This is a 12 year team two years ago. The 12 one team. They're not going to win the Superbowl in the 2020s, which will mean three

straight Superbowl-less decades for you. But at least you have Juan Soto. How dare you? How dare you? You have Juan Soto. I'm praising you. We're in the Metsat open day of the season today. Juan Soto is going to be the Cowboys quarterback in like three years.

You'll see. New York Giants, three and 14 last year, tough division, plus NFC North, AFC West. And they're paying Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for some reason. Why not pick one of those guys? Yeah. They got to get hard knocks back in New York. I know Joe Shane's going to lock his doors. I'm not going to let anybody in, but they have that, that quarterback room with Jamis,

Ross and Tommy DeVito. What laughs then that's before they even throw any pick sixes. What did they possibly see from Russell Wilson in the last six games of the season with the Steelers to think he's anything more than like a $5 million quarterback? I do not understand it. What is that? What's the game plan for that? And you have Jamis who's I, I would probably rather have Jamis at gunpoint wouldn't really want to eat in the room. Who'd you rather have Jamis or Russell Wilson?

Coin flip. No, I'm no reason to pay 10 million dollars. So you're paying one guy four million and the other guy like 20? Yeah, I like it. This was my favorite cowboy signing, the free agency, Russell Wilson to the giants. It was, it was the best. I mean, honestly, like you were selectively aggressive at cheering for it. Well, we're not getting 2015 Russell Wilson. He doesn't run. He's bad in the pocket.

If that offensive line was anything like it was with Daniel Jones, it's going to be a disaster for him, right? It went bad for him in Seattle near the end. He went to Denver. It went so bad that they paid him to go away and then went to the Steelers who completely quit on everybody in the last four weeks of the season. And now you have Dave Ball and Shane basically trying to save their jobs, telling us we don't want to take a rookie quarterback three because we won't be here when he starts being good. And now there's Wilson versus Russell is, uh, Wilson versus Winston's nuts. But I'm the other way.

I'm like, why even keep Dave all around? Cause you're not going to win with this team and this is going to be his last year, right? This, this Russell Wilson thing. I mean, they're a mess. They offered Darius Slate more money than they did a Saquon. What was that? Yeah, I picked four and a half for this.

I think this is going to be our first four or three. I'm going to say five. I don't even know why, but. Okay. Five and a half. You win again. Really? Yeah. Okay.

I might want to book that five and a half from people. Yeah, that's a disaster. What's the division odds? Division odds. Giants 20 to one. Is that the biggest one we've had so far? Cleveland's 23 to one. Dallas seven to one.

Washington plus two 50 Eagles minus one 65. I like, don't mind that Washington's a play. Washington's a play. Yeah. I don't mind that one at all. Okay. NFC North. So the NFC East 34 wins. AFC East 33. I don't know about that. I don't agree with that Giants number at all. In fact, I'm gonna make my first like market down prediction. I think that's four and a half by the summer. Right. I don't think that stays there. Can I tell a quick story? The being in Vegas.

So I bet the Giants have the worst record in the league last year and they were three and 14, right? But it tied with three other teams. So it's a four way split. So I go to cash this. I don't have to say what casino this is, but I go to cash it in. So I should, you know, I was about to win $1,300. So if you split it four ways, I went 300 and change. So I presented to the counter. It's a miracle.

I'm cashing a futures ticket from last year. And the guy's like, nope, this is a loser. I was like, well, how is this a loser? I pull up on my phone. There's four teams with three, with three wins. Then he brings this guy over. Couldn't have been older than 19 years old. He's got this thing that resembles a phone that he's looking into.

The Giants lose on a tiebreaker to the Browns, and he lists six tiebreaking scenarios, and they lost on the sixth tie. I was like, wait a minute, isn't this Dead Heat rules? And he was like, no, we don't do Ted, sir. This is how we do it. And you lost on the sixth tiebreaker. I'm like, all right, I don't even know

what you're looking into by the way. You could be, you know, you could be, I'm not sure what you could be. But, and I hate when they're indignant about it. Like, like TSA is like when you fly from, and they're like, you have to take your laptop out. Like, all right, well I just flew in from Fort Worth and I didn't have to.

And they're like, they're so dickish about it. But anyway, I lost because of the sixth tiebreaker. That feels like fraud. I know. It's like all this rooting I did for nothing. Kind of wish you would name the casino, but, um, that's unbelievable. Yeah. NFC North Detroit 15 and two last year. That's unbelievable. Yeah. NFC North Detroit, 15 and two last year. That's not happening again. They do play the NFC East and the AFC North. So giants, that's an easy game.

Maybe your team's easy. Steelers Brown's easy. Maybe Steelers are easy if they don't get a quarterback. Um, a lot of trouble with this. I'm going to say 11 and a half. That's what I have 11 and a half. Is it higher? It is 10 and a half. That's bad.

That's wrong. Well, I'll tell you this much. There's, there's a action on the under of all things. Wow. Minus one 40 under 10 and a half. I'm sorry. That's wrong. This team had the year from hell injury wise.

You're not going to find a worst example of like a team that was plagued with injuries and they won 15 games and now you're taking four and a half games off their total. They can get the whole defense back. I know the division's tough. They lost both coordinators. Yeah, that's not nothing. Right.

They, uh, they had a horrible end to the season. Yep. And they lose to your team. Four and a half wins. They replaced them though. They replaced them with a cornerback everybody likes. They did. Yeah. DJ Reed. And we haven't seen the draft yet. I like the over. I'm saying I like the over. Why is that four and a half different?

Minnesota's not going to win 14 games. So they'll, right? I don't even know that the division's better. So you'd bet the Lions plus 120 at over 10 and a half right now. Yeah, 11 and six. I really like that one too. I almost, that line's so suspicious. I almost feel like we don't know something. Right.

Like what do they know that we don't know? Dan Campbell bit all the kneecaps off. There's none left. Dan Campbell has been deranged all off season. Minnesota was 14 and three last year. This is so hard. And they changed their quarterback from the great Sam Darnold to JJ McCarthy, who we have not seen play NFL yet.

Tough for schedule second place. I can't, this is the biggest drop off 14 and three, but I went nine and a half for them. I don't see how it can be in the tens. I went eight and a half. I think this is an impossible one to pick. I think nine and eight would be good for them. You motherfucker.

Is it? Eight and a half. Yes. That is plus 115 right now. That's what I mean. Wow, you're really good at this. Guessing the over-unders, your final destiny. This is it.

You found the gimmick. We've been podcasting since 07. You figured it out. Unbelievable. I did it. You're going to have to pull me into NBA. I think you've clinched. I think I'd have to get all the rest ones just to tie you. That did it. You're gonna have to pull me into NBA. I think you've clinched. I think I'd have to like get all the rest ones just to tie you. That's it. What a what a beating this was. Yeah, so that is a full-fledged. We don't trust JJ McCarthy number. So that's the biggest drop-off five and a half

from 14. Yeah, five and a half drop-off and JJ McCarthy might be good. Right, right. Vikings dare I say a little nobody believes in us. There's still some Aaron Rodgers. 14-3 last year. A lot of the guys are still in this locker room. They went 14-3. Yeah. All right. Green Bay. They went 11-6 last year. Third place schedule and um I'll probably regret this but I went nine and a half. I did think about the 10 and a half. It's gotta be nine and a half. And it's nine and a half, but plus 115 on the over. So they're minus 135 on the under.

I think that's just right for them. Yeah. So division odds now Detroit plus 110, Green Bay plus 250, Bears plus 450, and Minnesota with the worst odds of anyone at plus 550. But I should have done that before we did, after we did the Bears. Right. Well, now you're going to, you can maybe lock in there. Maybe I can cheat.

Well, I had eight and a half for them anyway. They're five and 12 last year. NFC East, AFC North. They spent a lot of money in the Alliance. They're going to have a high draft pick. And with the way that a division's kind of falling back to them a little bit, it seems like an eight and a half. What'd you have? I went nine only because it was nine last year.

Right? Like, wasn't that weird? Remember we were betting them not to make the play out. Do we bet them under nine or do we bet them not to make the playoffs? I feel like they're in love with the Bears. The fans are in love with the Bears. I know they fix that offensive line.

I have nine. It is eight and a half. Okay. Plus 120 for the over on that one. Hmm. Not touching that. I don't touching. Yeah, that is a that is a stay away. Okay. Yeah. So 19 and 18. So that's 37 wins. Is that the most? That's the most for any division. Yeah. Two more. NFC South, Tampa Bay, 10 and seven. Feel good story. Playing the NFC West and the AFC East.

So potentially, I don't really love anybody in the NFC West. And we might not love three of the four teams in the AFC East. So this is a nice little scenario for the South. And then, you know, they're bringing their receivers back, bringing the team back. It felt like a nine and a half to me, Sal. Oh, really? Oh, I don't think you can make any of these teams

over eight and a half. That's what I did. And you were correct, eight and a half. This is like. This is embarrassing for you. I'm at this stage now where I'm bringing in the shortstop to pitch the night thing. He's throwing his knuckleball.

I mean, this could be just a giant Bill Simmons meme for 90 minutes. This is great. I'm gonna make the Walton Goggins finding out that his friend had sex with everyone in Thailand face. Minus 125 action for the Bucks, FYI. Can't do it.

No South. No South talk till week 12. New Orleans, oh no, not New Orleans. Atlanta is next. So they're playing a second place schedule plus the NFC West plus the AFC East. And they went eight and nine last year, full year of PENIX. I put eight and a half for these guys. Little weird off season already.

I just went eight. Okay. I don't know why you keep doing the round numbers, but I'm not going to question your process since you're beating me by 16. Seven and a half is our answer. Wow, you won that one too, motherfucker. I mean, that's just so much is up in the air with his cousins and they lose their center. I was feeling so good after my 27 and five, and now I'm in shambles. It's such a good year last year.

I lose the Super Bowl, I get killed, Casey now, but now my whole that things falling apart I can't be under should be me. I think I've dropped by five wins. This doesn't matter you you pick the winners 27 time just picking the number matters to me. I don't know what the hell to do I don't know what to do with the number. I care about dumb shit like this. So it matters New Orleans god are they gonna be terrible 5 and 12 West, AFC East, and the third place schedule. And they're in Capel. They brought back Carr with this weird, well, we're screwed anyway. How about we'll guarantee your money.

They have the ninth pick in the draft. Yeah. Brandon Cooks, Jawan Johnson, same old names. New coach, but they had like the last pick of the coaches. It was like they went to go get a dog from the kennel and every other choice was gone. And they're like, we have this one left. Any interest? I went five and a half and it might be a win too high. I went round number because I couldn't think about it too much.

Six for me. No, you hit it again. Really? I didn't. You doing this round number thing is bullshit. There's been no round numbers the whole time. Sandal has round numbers. You're, I'm just trying to do this correctly.

Can't believe you. You should try harder. This is like the most you've ever cheated. There are round numbers. I looked last year. Pick five and a half or six and a half. Sounds like I'll just take six. It's like price is right.

You're just gaming the system. I sent you all the numbers from last year. You could have noticed that there weren't halves on several of them. Well, it's six and a half this time. We haven't had a round number yet. Wait, is it six and a half or six? Yeah, it's six and a half.

You won because you picked six because you cheated. Oh, okay. Oh, I see. You won because you picked six because you cheated. Okay. Oh, I see. And then, uh, last one is Carolina. Five and 12 last year somehow. I still can't believe I didn't win my, when I was in Boston that time and I bet the adjusted under four and a half wins for them and somehow Bryce Young came in and just smoked it. They ended up with five wins.

I lost. And the other one was the adjusted under on the Pats, three and a half, and Joe Milton came in at the end. Joe Milton? Yeah, he was gonna be a cowboy. Joe Milton, the next day worst quarterback? Anyway, he came in. By the way, that was nuts.

We don't think about that enough, that Andy Dalton was totally content to bring them to another three and 14 year. Then at the car accident. He gets in that car accident. You should see if you're covered, your auto insurance covers that bet. Like, do you have to pay the deductible?

I won't try to find out at the casino you went to. Yeah. I went five and a half for the Panthers. I did too. Okay. The answer is six and a half. Jesus. No. What the hell?

What are we doing? Come on. I don't agree with that at all. Why are they better than five ones last year? Holy moly. Where do they pick up this extra two games? Divisions. Tampa plus 135, Atlanta plus 230, New Orleans plus 480,

and Carolina, action, started out in the fourth slot, but now they're plus 410. People are banging the Panthers. What am I missing? We may have to do that, but no south talk. Hey, what was your bet last year for the south? They'd have fewer than how many wins? We, one of our locks that we hit was that they would have less than 30 wins,

which they did. And then we had an NFC East first first South bet. I think just the top two teams in the NFC East almost beat the entire. So it's 29 this year. If you add the seven and a half, eight and a half, six and a half, six and a half, it's 13 and 16. 29. Hit it again. I gotta be honest. We've done 28 teams.

I think my single favorite is New Orleans under six and a half so far. Why are they gonna be good? What is good about them? What's the case? Nah. They're old, They're messy. They came out with a great start last year.

They were 2-0, scored like 100 points. And then they were the Saints. If we were to say who's going to have the worst record in the league next year, they would at least be one of the teams we batted around. Yeah, I think that's smart. NFC West. They're playing the NFC South and the AFC South. That's the best draw, right? Yeah, that's the best draw.

I thought the NFC West was probably going to's the best draw. I thought the NFC West was probably gonna suck this year, but that made me rethink it. The Rams are in the one spot with the schedule. They were 10 and seven last year. First place schedule on the one hand, but then playing the Souths kind of messed with my head a little bit. I went 10 and a half for them. Oh wow. I went nine

So, let's see. I know you don't like the round numbers nine and a half That's me minus 145 listen I think uh, I think this is going to be ultimately good for me because I think my instincts Will be like them? The correct instincts. I do. I like them because of their schedule and because I don't think

their division is going to be good. Yeah. Do you like Arizona, San Francisco or Seattle this year? No, after the super bowl, I picked my way too early team. Odds wise value wise, the Rams were 20 to one. I was like, wow, that's pretty good. They were a couple couple plays away from beating the champion Eagles.

And then they did a smart thing, signed Stafford. Awesome. I think Devonte Adams has juice left. They extend to Adams. Yeah, yeah, it's good. They're in good shape, I think. Nine and a half is a nice number too. Yeah, I mean, one of the great things about this process

is especially after the draft, when we get to the summer, I'm sure we'll flip-flop on a bunch of these instincts, but I just think the Rams best coach, they've had success staffers kind of near the end. Like this seems like a pretty good division bet type of thing for me. Seattle, they were 10 and seven last year, same South versus South, second place schedule. And I went 8 and a half for them. I said 7 and a half. I hit this one 8 and a half.

Really? Yeah. Really? You won one? I did. Really? I won one. I'm going to I'm remembering all of this for Guess the Lines this year. I did really. I won one. I'm gonna, I'm remembering all of this for guest lines this year. I don't like these moves. These could go very badly with Sam Darnold and Cooper Cupp.

I don't know. I didn't like the Cooper Cupp signing at all. There was so many bad stats about him getting open over the last five years or in 2020 he was open 90% of the time and it was down like 14. The thing with Darnold though, he was 14 and three last year. I know. So now he's an eight win quarterback. That's the only thing that makes me nervous. and it was down like 14. The thing with Darnold though, he was 14 and three last year. So now he's an eight win quarterback. That's the only thing that makes me nervous,

but I want to see if they fix their offensive line completely through the draft. We'll see. Arizona's eight and nine. Yeah, no Geno, no Metcalf. Yeah. Arizona was eight and nine last year. And if Seattle's eight and a half

with this South South thing, I think Arizona has to be eight and a half with this South South thing, I think they, I think Arizona has to be eight and a half. So that's what I picked. Maybe you'll beat me here. I said seven, seven round number bulls. It's higher. Eight and a half plus one on five. Well, at least I'm ending in a way with my fans can at least have some. I'm going to let you win these last couple.

You took out your starters. You're like Buffalo and Wichita. Well, at least I'm ending in a way with my fans can at least have some hope. I'm gonna let you win these last couple. You took out your starters. You're like Buffalo in week 17, let Joe Milton light you up. Plus 105. And then last but not least San Francisco who lost so many people. It's like a whole paragraph of all the people they lost. This is so tough.

And yet they were six and 11 last year. That was the rebuilding year, but now they're in a rebuilding year and they're going to have to pay per die, but they are playing the South and the South. Uh, I said six and a half would you have, Oh, wow. That eight and a half. Okay. Wow.

This is the biggest disparity we've had. It's gotta be my way. Right. How is this right? 10 and a half. That's too high. That's way, way in the hell. What am I missing? You know, you read enough about them.

It's like, yeah, these were good moves. These were good cuts. Debo Samuel, all these cuts, everything they did. Green law. I don't know. I don't, they can't. I thought this was like a blow it up or building here for them. Wait, so they're favored to win the division? Not the Rams?

I'm stunned by that. Yeah. San Francisco plus 155, Rams plus 180, Seahawks plus 490 Cardinals plus 500. So I have to bet this now if I was four wins off, even though we don't know what's happening in the draft, that has to be an automatic bet for me. Yeah, that's atrocious. That's not good. I'm stunned.

That's not good. We gotta go under there. Also like how do we know McCaffrey's even gonna be remotely where he was? Exactly. That's the way to go. Yeah. Well, that was very fun.

That was a good time. And they have Mac Jones, though. Did you mention that? They did sign him for two years. I forgot to mention Mac Jones. The MVP is Lamar plus 450 Allen plus 550 Burrow plus 600. So the Niners are probably like seven. Daniel's seventh best to win the Super Bowl. I hope that's not true for the conference. They have the third best odds nine to one.

What am I missing? What's happening? I think it's way more likely they have a year from hell again and Shanahan is like out of there. I missed the whole off season. I really do. I was there for the whole off season. I didn't see anything that made me think that they were gonna be awesome.

I thought they lost a shitload of people. I mean, do we feel like they hit their drafts the last couple years? Like, you know, they're trying to trade IUC as we speak and I don't even think they can do that. This is coming off an ACL. Yeah, they were riding high off the purdy, not having to pay him.

Now it's, I gotta look into that. We're missing something. Let's do a quick parent corner before we go. All right, my son Archie's home on spring break. They do quarters, so he gets home and I say, like how are your grades? And he like kinda like half asses a response and everything and immediately shifts gears

and tells me he's on season four of The Sopranos. And I was like, oh, that's great. That's better. You could have told me you're, you're, you're mafia cum laude right now. I mean, that's all I care about. That's what college should be all about, right? Spend tens of thousands of dollars a semester to catch up on classic TV shows in your dorm. And it's like reading a great novel. Yeah, it really is. I was like, oh, sorry. So you're in season four. You got like a season and a half. I was like, I want to watch the finale with you.

And he's like, I don't know. Once I get going, I really I don't know. Am I really going to be able to stop short and not watch the finale for like a month? I'm like, no, I want to watch with you. And it's like he's like, all right, I'll try. But it made me think, like, if you had to watch a finale with your kids. Who are viewing for the first time, which ones would you put up there? Sopranos.

Sopranos. Anything else bringing bad or not as much? No. Only Sopranos. Just for the reaction. Right. There was this clip going around and people watching Tommy get shot in Goodfellas. You see that? Different reactions.

Right. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And I think that would be the TV version of that. Watching people react to like, wait, what? Wait, what? You hated that. That was the maddest I've ever seen. You're non-sports related. I'm still mad that you're not mad about it.

I really do. Yeah, now I think it's great, but I know it's gonna happen I know what's happening now. You liked it right away you did but it's no I do not like it right away I didn't sensical well I guess no one hated as much as I did but I had a terrible reaction to I didn't want to be friends with anyone Who liked it? I like I like that is such a cheap way to go out But the answer is he left it open ended because he's a movie maker. He wanted to maybe make a movie.

What? That's the only answer. So he didn't die. This is how he set it up. That this is what death is like. You don't know when it's coming in. Everything goes black bullshit. So my son, like five days ago, first spring break, went to Portugal and Spain because he's in this, he plays the upright bass and he's in this jazz band.

So a bunch of the jazz people went to play in all of these places. So they, my wife drives them like in the middle of the night to the airport because they have like a six o'clock flight. And then he's flying for two days straight. I wanted to read you all of our interactions with him since he's been gone. He's been gone since Friday night and WhatsApp because they don't have messages or anything. First of all, she only hears from him once on WhatsApp then puts me on a text with them. Miss you guys too. That was one. We are in Rondo and are about to perform in four minutes, second form of communication with him.

Send us one, two pictures of, you can see of a tree in a mountain. Nice. My wife asked how is the performance? No answer. Sends a picture of the dog, misses you, nothing. Performances have been great. It's super nice out here. That was the third communication. Miss home though. T H O. Great picture. Um, need a photo of your face. My wife says nothing. Then silence again. Hey guys, super long day. We left at nine and just got back. My wife responds, that's your report. Anything else happening? Is it any fun?

Sends us back this picture. What is it? I couldn't see what, uh, it's just a picture of him and his friend with the mouth behind them and he says, it is fun. It's just a lot. Yeah. Um, and that's it. Those have been all of our interactions with them. Has it tried to call us once?

Only one picture of his face, and I have no idea if he's even alive in spade right now. I was trying to, my wife and I were talking about, I was trying to remember, was I this much of a dick when I was 17? And I think the answer is probably yes, right? We just didn't want to deal with our parents in any way, shape, or form when we were 17. Right.

We didn't have WhatsApp and anything else like that too, so it wasn't as easy, so maybe that's a little, yeah, but maybe we spoke. It's hard to believe there was one moment where he's like, you know what, I'm gonna send my parents an update. Just a long paragraph, here's the best thing I ate. Just check in, say hi to grandma for me, whatever.

Nope, nothing. I think the big news is who the hell knew that Ben Simmons played the upright base after all these years on an international level? This is great. I was an international bass player. Yeah. This is great.

How about that he went to Portugal and Spain, two countries I have been to yet. I don't know, who could figure that out? I bet on them in soccer, I have a bunch of Portuguese soccer. I didn't mean to mention Portugal and Spain in a non-soccer context. You just reminded me. Yeah. Anyway, that's Parent Corner. The other thing is we're doing this live rewatchables tonight in Boston.

And my daughter goes to college here so I left her a ticket. I'm like, you're going to come tomorrow night? She's like, I don't know. It's a, you know, it's a big night. Meaning like it's a big night where they go out. So she's 50 50. I just, I might need to have more kids is what I would do. That's what I've really ended. But you know, with those older guys, when they just like all of a sudden they have the second family and like, huh, that's weird. Maybe I just need to start again. Yeah. Nah, dude, now they'll come around.

I think you need to have, hold the rewatchables at the place where she's going out. That's what you have to figure out. Right, maybe go to the bar, maybe that's where they have to practice. She shows up by accident. Yeah, 50-50, might go, might not. Depends on what's going on tonight.

You son of a bitch, you guys are doing Goodfellas tonight? No, we're doing Goodwill Hunting tonight. Oh, Goodwill Hunting, Goodson. Yeah, Goodfellas is playing at the Low Coolidge Corner Film Festival. Oh man, that's gonna be so much fun. So much fun. Alright, Sal, congrats on absolutely kicking my ass.

Thank you. If that was a baseball game, that would've been 17 to three. What's your favorite MLB future? Mercy Rule. I went Soto over 33 and a half home runs. And what was my other one I had I have Texas Rangers to make to make the playoffs. Oh, I like it. So I like it. Yeah I'm good and I had mad dog Russo on cousin Sal's winning weekend. You can see it Friday

Sandal TV and by the way, he I went through I'll send you the clip I was like, you know, we Simmons and I do this podcast for the last 15 years, we've closed it with Good Job by You, we stole it from you, I said, can you give me a good job by you? And he's like, well first of all, you tell Bill, I watched three episodes of the Celtics documentary and it is dynamite. I mean, you got him and his father

and they're talking and Cousy and Russell, and then he went through all that, and I'm like, all right, I'll tell Russell. And then he went through all that and I'm like, alright, I'll tell him. And then he gave me a good job by you. Like I thought he was going into convulsions. Like it was great. I'll send it to you. Made my year.

Alright, check that out. That's on against all odds, right? Against all odds, cause it's all over. But you're also on the ringer gambling shit too. That's right. Alright, so there you go. How you doing on March of Madness by the way? You winning? I'm just on the Ringer Gambling show too. That's right. All right. Yeah. All right, so there you go. How are you doing on March of Madness by the way? Are you winning?

I'm doing all right. I mean, you can't, it's hard to lose when it's all chalk. I mean, it's a... Are you doing like... I know you hate it. Are you doing three favorite parlays? I get irrationally angry at how much your irrational behavior told you much. I've been following.

I'm just doing a bit. I like to... That's good, I know you are. I know you are. I was on the thread we have with JJ and Raheem in house, just, oh, my bracket, oh my God, it's busted, oh! It's dumb, but it's still guys coming to Vegas. By the way, it's not like 20 years ago.

They charge like 500 bucks to get into Caesars. You want a seat anywhere. It's 400, like ask Kyle. It's 400 or more. Oh my God. But anyway, we did all right. It's a lot of fun. Good job, B.U.

Great to see you. Thanks to Kyle and SuriD and Gehow. As always, don't forget you can watch this on the Ring of Movies YouTube channel or as a video podcast on Spotify. Sal, good job by you. Good job by you, buddy. Must be 21 plus in President-elect states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC.

Gambling problem? Call 100Gambling or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit Gambling Help Line, ma.org, or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY, or text HOPENY in New York.