The Bill Simmons Podcast - Guess the Lines Week 1 With Cousin Sal (Ep. 255)

Episode Date: September 5, 2017

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to continue the age-old tradition of guessing the NFL lines before each weekend's slate of games. Topics include: NFL futures (6:00), Philip R...ivers's number of touchdown passes (16:00), MVP odds (21:00), odds for first coach fired (27:00), Pats-Chiefs (35:00), Packers-Seahawks (40:00), Andrew Luck's over-under games played (47:00), Steelers-Browns (51:00), Bengals-Ravens (57:00), Cowboys-Giants (1:05:00), Saints-Vikings (1:12:00), and the top-tier teams heading into Week 1 (1:16:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 Oh, man. Year 11. Today's episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast and the Ringer Podcast Network brought to you by SeatGeek, our presenting sponsor, the easiest way to shop for tickets. Thanks to their revolutionary grading system. Football fans, for $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase on NFL tickets, use promo code BSNFL.
Starting point is 00:00:21 So are you going to use that? I'm going to use it all. I'm excited. All right. You're just buying everything. Download the SeatGeek app or I'm going to use it all. I'm excited. All right. You're just buying everything. Download the SeatGeek app or go right to SeatGeek.com. We are also brought to you by Origins. That's a brand new podcast from our old friend Jim Miller.
Starting point is 00:00:35 He wrote the best-selling CA oral history and co-wrote the ESPN and SNL oral histories that are essential library material. He's also done some great podcasts on this podcast. In Origins, Jim will be exploring beginnings in the world of film, TV, music, and sports with firsthand stories of the stars who made it happen. Chapter one, a five-episode journey into the origins of Curb Your Enthusiasm, featuring Larry David and the crew,
Starting point is 00:00:58 launches September 6th. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your pods. Speaking of subscriptions, against all odds, America's Hottest Gambling Podcast. Is that right? I had no idea. I don't know. That's what I'm calling it. Okay.
Starting point is 00:01:13 That's your podcast. Yeah. The trifecta has taken off. The degenerate trifecta. Yeah. I've actually gotten friends who are even more degenerate than you together to talk gambling. They really are degenerates, too. It's one of those things where I don't even know if the name really captures it enough.
Starting point is 00:01:31 My friend Harry was watching Vijay Singh. He had him to win some senior tour. He was watching all weekend long. Vijay Singh? Couldn't be bothered. Wow. I mean, that's a degenerate. So, Sal, basically you used four months there as the preseason for this gambling pod, knowing football was coming.
Starting point is 00:01:48 And now football's here. I knew eventually it would get here. You're taping on Wednesdays. It's going up Thursdays. Yeah. We're doing Guest Alliance every Monday. Right. We might have a couple crossover pods.
Starting point is 00:02:00 So if you like to this NBA thing, you're going to want to tackle those odds. Yeah. When the NBA comes around midweek, I'm probably going to have to do some NBA. We're going to move guest lines to Sal's pod. So be ready for that. Don't forget to go to the ringer.com. We have a ton of NFL preview stuff up. And my column comes back on Friday.
Starting point is 00:02:16 No. Yeah. I'm back, man. My fingers. I was able to reach it. You have someone ghostwriting that thing? I should. That's actually would have probably been a better idea.
Starting point is 00:02:26 That's coming back Friday morning. I'm going to write them on Thursdays. I'm going to hand them in Thursday nights. And they're going to be up Friday morning. Good. I'm going to stick to that. So year 11, guess the lines. Can't believe it.
Starting point is 00:02:38 First, the rock and roll. Hall of Famers, Pearl Jam. All right. Wow. Wow. Let's take a lap. What a day for us. Not only year 11 of Guest Alliance, but we have our fantasy draft tonight.
Starting point is 00:03:09 Oh, yeah. And somebody's getting voted out. Every year I hope it's me. It's never me. Maybe it'll be me this year. Every year you send an email and be like, what do I have to do to get voted out? Who do I need to insult? And it's like, it's worked for you because everyone's like, well, that's all right. He wants to be voted out.
Starting point is 00:03:24 And so we're not going to let him have it. But this year, the people in charge of making that decision did not respond, which makes me think you could be on the way out. There's only four people who haven't been voted out. Right. You're one of them. Yeah. Well, I make the league more fun.
Starting point is 00:03:38 I just want to remind everybody. Back paddling. Brad, who is now now there's so much tension in our draft between Brad and Paul who voted out Brad twice yeah that Brad now
Starting point is 00:03:50 removes Paul from every email he sends to the group and he he says removing Paul and then writes this thing which I
Starting point is 00:03:58 I decided should be a Netflix series called Removing Paul where Brad kills Paul and he has to dispose his body somewhere right he's gonna remove him from the earth Removing Paul where Brad kills Paul and he has to dispose his body somewhere. He's going to remove him from the earth. Removing Paul.
Starting point is 00:04:08 And then the sequel will be Removing Tate. So this was a really weird preseason. Yeah. Why are we even doing this? Are we spinning our wheels when your freaking team is minus 6,000 to make the playoffs? Minus 6,000 to make the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:04:24 That's insane. I blame myself because I did the two-hour podcast with Hench about the 25 greatest Patriots victories. Look, it's been a whole century of the Pats. There's been all these games. We put them all on a podcast. Edelman got hurt like a week later. Right, right. I do blame myself for that. Well, before you blame yourself, there are Vegas insiders that say even if Brady went
Starting point is 00:04:45 down, it's hard for me to believe, but if Brady went down, the Patriots would be favored still to win the Super Bowl. To win the Super Bowl? I thought you were going to say the division. No, no, no. The whole thing. I feel sad because for years and years and years, we were able to get the AFC East at a decent price for them.
Starting point is 00:05:01 And this year, Vegas was like enough. Yeah. They just made like $2,500 to win $100 or whatever that is. Weird preseason though. There was an incredible amount of turnover. It seems like the turnover has gotten worse and worse every year.
Starting point is 00:05:15 And then this year it's like, I'm at my daughter's soccer tournament all weekend. I didn't even know about TJ Ward's on the Bucs. Sammy Coates is on the Browns. All these things are happening. And it's just constant. And it's really hard to figure out who's on what team. It feels like every year it's just a reset button.
Starting point is 00:05:33 The quarterbacks are the same. A couple of the famous skill guys and defenders are the same. And other than that, it's like completely new teams, each team. I think it has something to do with they eliminated the 75-man cut or whatever that was. It goes right from 100 to 53, which kills hard knocks, by the way. It's not good because you want that extra week in there of guys
Starting point is 00:05:54 moaning, walking in with their heads down and everything. But I think it's inspired more trades because teams can't figure out what they exactly need to do and where their weaknesses are. But yeah, a lot of action. Trades are fun. Like the Pats traded Jacoby Brissett for Philip Dorsett.
Starting point is 00:06:10 Yeah. The speedy wide receiver who is yet another failed Ryan Grigson pick. So it's one of those trades that's like, did we win this trade? Did we lose it? Is Brissett good? I have no idea. Why don't we just assume you win? Let's assume everyone you picked up from the Bills,
Starting point is 00:06:25 although they were free agents, but you have Gilmore and you have Gillislee as a running back. Like, those guys will be great. Everyone's going to be great. You're going to be fine. Well, this guy does get banged up. But I was hoping, I thought they picked him up as a kick returner, but apparently not.
Starting point is 00:06:40 Whatever. 10 to 1 that you're undefeated. Come on. Their schedule's too hard. And you can actually pick when they lose first. December 17th at Pittsburgh is 15-1. That might not be terrible. Wow.
Starting point is 00:06:53 Do you want to do some futures first and then do guest lines for week one? We have a slightly tinkered with structure for this year. Whatever you want to do. Yeah, you put everything in categories here. This is interesting. So a couple futures I wanted to talk about here. One is that anyone but the Patriots win the Super Bowl is minus 475. Less than 500 win 100.
Starting point is 00:07:16 Yeah, I get every other team. I get 31 teams for minus 475. That seems kind of crazy. You get the Browns. You get the Jaguars. I get the Jets. Wow. It's incredible.
Starting point is 00:07:26 It's incredible until you know they're going to make the playoffs for sure. And they'll be almost definitely in the conference championship. I get the Seahawks. I get the Steelers. I get the Packers. Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks. I get whoever the mystery awesome team is this year. Do it.
Starting point is 00:07:41 Put a lot of money on it. I'm definitely not doing that. Highest win total, 13 and a half wins. So basically, if you bet somebody's going 14 and 2, even odds. I think the Pats are going to go either 14 and 2 or 13 and 3. I think 13 and 3 is more realistic. I actually think the odds are a little off on that. And you hate that that last game could mean nothing.
Starting point is 00:08:03 That's the thing. You never know if they're going to sit anybody. And they might already have three losses by them. I like the other are a little off on that. And you hate that that last game could mean nothing. That's the thing. You never know if they're going to sit anybody. And they might already have three losses by then. I like the other side of that. Will a team have two losses, two wins? Wasn't that one? So that's, yeah, highest loss total, 13 and a half losses. Over, right?
Starting point is 00:08:16 Is minus 155. So you're betting like, it's another weird thing about this season. These teams that are kind of tanking NBA style. Yeah. But the tanking doesn't totally make sense. Like the Browns waived Joe Hayden. Right. How is that good for them?
Starting point is 00:08:33 Regardless of... Isn't it good to have good players on your football team? Whatever your goal for the team is. Why do you just want to be so bad you're going to get your ass kicked? Same thing with the Jets. They got rid of all their leaders. I don't understand that. I get the Sheldon Richardson trade, right? You just want to be so bad you're going to get your ass kicked. Same thing with the Jets. They got rid of all their leaders. Like Forte is stuck in that backfield. Like I get the Sheldon Richardson trade, right?
Starting point is 00:08:50 He's not coming back. They're getting a second round pick for him. Just waving Joe Hayden. And then he goes to the Steelers, the team that has kicked your ass every single year since like 1872. And you open with in week one. Yeah. What's the point of that? Can you get a fifth rounder for that guy? I think they're like, we're the Browns.
Starting point is 00:09:06 We get it. But I like that. I like that over. So basically betting, if somebody's going 2-14, 1-15, or 0-16, you bet 1-55 to win 100. Isn't there always a team that's 0-10 or 1-11 and they have to win whatever? You could go against it. You're right. Lowest win total by a division winner, 8.5 wins is minus 250.
Starting point is 00:09:30 Wow. So basically, you're betting that everyone wins at least nine or goes, I guess 8, 7, and 1 would be under two. This is just AFC South, right? Is there any other team that could? Patriots, Steelers, we would say. AFC South, Raiders or Chiefs, whoever you like. It's basically AFC South.
Starting point is 00:09:49 It's the AFC South. Will the AFC South winner be 9-7? That's why I like the bet. I think the Texans are going to be good. Over? Yeah. So basically, I get them, but I also get the possibility that Marietta's good and good stuff happens and the Titans go 10-6.
Starting point is 00:10:03 Here's what I'll say. I'm with you in that division. I like the Texans. I don't know how much emotion is going to play in it now with this hurricane and everything. It's terrible. But if luck is out for a considerable amount of time, Mariotta is the best quarterback in that division by a freaking mile.
Starting point is 00:10:18 By a mile, right? So that's hard. I like Watson, though. I think he's going to be good. Will they figure out to put him in early? Will Andy Reid figure out to put Mahomes in early? Is it going to be too late for these teams? That's another issue, I think.
Starting point is 00:10:32 What was the – Houston plays the Jags in week one, and we're getting Tom Savage versus Blake Bortles, and that's not even one of the two worst quarterback matchups of the week. Right, I know. Because if Tyrod Taylor doesn't play, the Bills are starting some guy. I feel like I'm in maybe the 98th or 99th percentile of NFL fans. I don't think so. There was some guy in the ticker that they were like,
Starting point is 00:10:58 Bills might start. I was like, I don't know who that is. Nathan Peterman, right? Nathan Peterman. I have no idea who that was. It's like, Jay Peterman started for the Bills? They signed Joe Webb, too, right, as a backup. Tate is shaking his head.
Starting point is 00:11:11 Can I say something nice about Tate? We gave Tate a mic this year so he can chime in once in a while. And then never again will I say anything, guys. Tate does this podcast, if you want to promote podcasts, does it with Lombardi. GM Street with Lombardi. GM Street. Excellent.
Starting point is 00:11:23 It's terrific. And it was always my favorite column, no offense, on the Grantland when Lombardi would go over his blue chippers and red chippers. Now he's turned it into a podcast with young Tate. It was really good. Blue chippers, offense, defense, and coaches. Lombardi is a guru. He knows everything, right?
Starting point is 00:11:41 Lombardi mentions the chief special teams coach. Tate corrects his pronunciation of the name. He's unbelievable. He's a football junkie like you never knew. The podcast is great. It's a really good podcast. You should stop listening to this now and go to that. The Blue Chippers was great.
Starting point is 00:12:00 Oh, I know. And Tate's like surprised. He's listing like defensive tackles. And Tate's like, wow, I thought so-and-so would be going there. I know. It's crazy. And I don't know. And like they get along in the pod because they wouldn't hang out in real life. I feel like they would eat. I think Lombardi
Starting point is 00:12:14 would eat with anybody. Lombardi wouldn't spit clam juice in his face if he saw them in a restaurant. Oh, it's Philadelphia. Lombardi got Philadelphia riled up. He did? One of the videos he did for us on Grantland. We should mention you're going to be doing pics on video pics. I'll be doing're going to be doing picks on video picks. I'll be doing my best picks. We'll figure that out.
Starting point is 00:12:28 But Lombardi had this very, very unflattering Doug Peterson take in one of the videos. I saw that. He wasn't going to last long, and he's maybe as unqualified to coach a team as anyone here can remember. And the Philly people got riled up and somebody asked Peterson about it. Really? Yeah, and he was saying,
Starting point is 00:12:47 listen, I'm only worried about the organization hiring me. It's like, this could be a thing. Oh, good. If they start out slow. Do you want to do... But the thing with Lombardi is he genuinely believes it. It's not like he's like, I'm going to throw this out here. He's really like, I can't believe this guy's a head coach.
Starting point is 00:13:02 Yeah, he's not like us. But yeah, he gets mad. Should we do the head coaches first to get fired? Yeah, I have that coming up. All right. I had a couple more quickie futures. Go ahead. Brady passing TDs is 35 and a half.
Starting point is 00:13:14 He's always right around there. Yeah. It seems a little high because I think they are going to run the ball a lot more this year. You do? I do. I think their running backs are good this year. This Burkhead, I think, is going to be something. He'll probably catch nine touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:13:29 35.5 seems high. Rivers passing TDs is 31.5. That seems low. What was it last year? I'm trying to think. He threw at least 28, 29 last year. He had no offensive line. He lost Keenan Allen. I thought that was a good one. Jordan Howard touchdowns was 8.5. You love this guy. thought that was a good one. Jordan Howard touchdowns was eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:13:45 You love this guy. Jordan Howard was spectacular last year. Tate, Jordan Howard, eight and a half touchdowns. He can't get to nine touchdowns? Why not? We know who's not going to throw a touchdown pass. It's Mike Lennon. Right.
Starting point is 00:13:57 Or do you believe in Trubisky? I do. And Mitchell, not Mitch. Okay. I feel bad for Tate because he comes from North Carolina. The greatest athlete of all time came from there, and he wasn't around for it, was he? Are you talking about Lawrence Taylor?
Starting point is 00:14:12 Yeah, I'm talking about Lawrence Taylor. And then like that – He has to tout Mitch Trubisky and freaking all these – And all the younger people – Yeah. The younger people both miss Jordan and also don't understand it. Yeah, right. Because like Nick Wright, who I actually like, who has this new show with Chris Carter and FS1 that I watched this week,
Starting point is 00:14:29 and he was on my Twitter feed with this video, and it's like, come up with an argument that MJ is better than LeBron that does not involve MJ has six rings. And I'm like, but that is the argument. He has six rings. And Bill Russell has 11. Yeah, that is the argument he has six rings and Bill Russell has 11 like yeah that's the argument
Starting point is 00:14:48 yeah but yeah why is steak better than salami and don't say because it's true Mike Evans
Starting point is 00:14:57 receiving TDs was eight and a half and yet here he is going sixth, seventh or eighth in every fantasy draft I've seen this year I love that guy.
Starting point is 00:15:05 I was watching our friend Damoshek on some NFL Network draft. It was like nine guys and one girl. And they're all making picks. And Adam Rank? Yeah. Just berating Damoshek at one point. Oh, was he? Yeah, I felt bad.
Starting point is 00:15:21 I felt I was going to intervene. Damoshek is an expert. I think he's made the playoffs in our league like one in the last six years or something. He thought I was going to intervene. Damoshek is an expert. I think he's made the playoffs in our league like one in the last six years. He's an expert. He's labeled an expert. He's an expert. He's going to love this. I think he has one playoff win since 2009. But yeah, so Mike Evans
Starting point is 00:15:35 went like seventh in that. His receiving today is eight and a half. Yeah. If he's going to be a top seven fantasy guy, is that going to catch ten touchdowns? The only thing I think with the receivers, it's weird with touchdowns. Like Julio Jones had six touchdowns last year. T.Y. Hilton led the league in receiving yards, also had six. So it gets weird sometimes. You've walked me off it.
Starting point is 00:15:53 Brandon Cooks was seven and a half, and I'm going to walk off that too. This, I think, is the lock of the year. And I might only be reverse jinxing this a little bit. Will Grant play in all 16 games? I saw that. I have that written down. Yes, plus 400. No, minus 500. Grant's not playing in all 16 games.
Starting point is 00:16:10 There's no way. It's such a win. It's such a win. He'll have some sort of staff infection on some part of his body for one week. Right. What would their record have to be for him to play week 17? Eight and seven? He sits that game no matter what.
Starting point is 00:16:26 No, it's minus 550. Yeah, just load it on there. Should we just put that? That's the Floyd Mayweather bet of the football season. Minus 550? Yeah. 16 games? Mm-hmm. You know what?
Starting point is 00:16:36 Let's talk about DirecTV really quickly. For over 20 years, DirecTV has been the exclusive home of NFL Sunday Ticket, the only way to get every live game every Sunday. When did you get DirecTV, Sal? What year? Oh, God. I'm grandfathered in. I don't want to say this.
Starting point is 00:16:50 I have the East Coast feed and everything. I got it in 1967. Wow, really? No, that was very early on. That was 2000. 2000? So I was probably 02, I think. Good news, NFL fans.
Starting point is 00:17:02 DirecTV expanded the service. If you live in an apartment or an enrolled college student, now you can get NFL Sunday Ticket without a satellite. To see if you're eligible, go online to NFLSundayTicket.tv. Stream every NFL Sunday Ticket game this season to follow your favorite team. Use promo code Billsimmons at checkout to save 15%. Wow. 15%. That's a good
Starting point is 00:17:26 deal. Once again, that's NFLSundayTicket.TV promo code Bill Simmons. I think it's worth every penny. Sure. It's the only reason I have DirecTV is for football. Me too. There's no other reason. I love football. Yeah. Can't get it
Starting point is 00:17:41 for any reason. Is it hurting ratings though is the is the uh no the eight that it's they've made it so easy what do they call it no but what do they call the the red the red zone oh that i would get rid of i think they should get rid of really i do i think it hurt i think it's so good though i don't think people like us they're there changing diapers and they're looking over their shoulder. They want the Red Zone channel. But wouldn't it, if you're a sponsor for football games, if somebody's just watching the Red Zone the whole time, there are no ads. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:18:15 They got to figure out a way to do the ads, I would guess. We're going to help them figure it out. Yeah. All right. We're going to end up editing all this. MVP odds. Brady was 4-1. Rodgers, 5-1.
Starting point is 00:18:24 Carr, 10-1. Rodgers 5-1. Carr 10-1. Wilson 10-1. Winston and Matt Ryan 15-1. Ben and your dude, Dak, 20-1. Dak, mildly intriguing at 20-1. Did Matt Ryan win it last year? Matt Ryan won last year, right? And 15-1.
Starting point is 00:18:40 He did, but Matt Ryan, I don't know if you heard, he lost the Super Bowl. He had a 25-point lead. He was plus 9,000 last year before the season, too. Really? 90-1, and now even as a winner, 15-1. Your 30-1s are Cam, Breeze, Le'Veon Bell, Marietta, and Rivers. I don't really like the prices for any of these,
Starting point is 00:19:00 but I think I would look at Wilson at 10-1. Schedule, great shape. Team's going to be really good. I don't even think he's going to win. It just 10-1 seemed a little high, but is there anyone you like? I don't know about Wilson. I still don't think they fixed their offensive line. I know you love them. Their defense, they probably won't be able to run or pass on him for sure,
Starting point is 00:19:22 but for him to get MVP, what were the two after Brady? What would you say? Rodgers is 5-1. Carr is 10-1. Feels like Carr. I almost think Carr should have won last year. All you have to do is see their first playoff game performance in the last three weeks. But maybe Carr is up there.
Starting point is 00:19:39 I like those odds. I don't think the Raiders are going to make the playoffs. Really? Yeah. Wow. That's one of my things I'm sticking to this year. It is the fishiest underline right there. I think it's like nine and a half.
Starting point is 00:19:49 They won so many close games last year. Yeah. From a talent standpoint, the team doesn't have as much talent as it did last year, I don't think. Really? I'm not sold on Marshawn Lynch for five months. I think that's going to be a waste of time. I think he's going to retire. Tate Lombardi says blue chippers, red chippers all over the place for the Raiders, right?
Starting point is 00:20:06 Yeah, a lot of red chippers. That's a good sign for them. Really tough division. I haven't fully committed yet. I'm going to decide in the Friday comp. But I'm leaning toward every year there's two teams that everybody's like, oh, they're in. And nobody even thinks or has a conversation about them. And it feels like the Raiders are just in that now.
Starting point is 00:20:24 That's them. I'm not positive they should be in that. Well it feels like the Raiders are just in that now. That's them. I'm not positive they should be in that. Well, look at the schedules. I like the Chiefs. I like the Chargers. Raiders have a tough schedule. Look at the Chiefs' schedule, though. Look at their first six.
Starting point is 00:20:32 Chiefs have a really tough schedule. It's really weird. I don't even recognize some of those teams. They're so good. That's the case for Houston. Houston, Watt's obviously back, which is unbelievable for them. Watson's the big X factor. Their D-backs are worse.
Starting point is 00:20:47 But then if you look at their schedule, they really only play three good quarterbacks the whole year. It's a bunch of like, you know, whatever's. And then Luck maybe could be the fourth if he's healthy. But I don't know if the cornerbacks will come back to bite them to the playoffs. I think the Houston's going to be good. It's a weird thing. That should have been a one-score game with the Patriots, that Houston playoff game.
Starting point is 00:21:06 They took it to us. Somehow the Patriots covered that game. It was like 18 or 19. But you get anyone other than the Heist, Osweiler in there, and that's a good game. The Heist, back in Denver. Offensive Rookie of the Year, McCaffrey 5-1, Cook 5-1, Hunt 6-1, Fournette 6-1.
Starting point is 00:21:24 That's about as good of a foursome as we've had. I didn't even mention Watson or Fizer. It's very solid, yeah. Really solid running back. I'm going to be interested to see what happens in our draft tonight with the rookies. I went with Cook. Yeah, I think they go around those guys you said, Fournette. Fournette will fetch the most money.
Starting point is 00:21:39 I think Cook's the best bet, right? I like Cook at 5-1. I think he handles the lowest. Highest upside. Yeah, and I think he makes the Vikings really good. Coach of the year. Let's pass that. Next coach fired.
Starting point is 00:21:53 Let's do it. Next coach fired. Bulls 5-1. Pagano and Caldwell 12-1. Gase, Fox, Lewis 12-1. Pagano's not 12. He's 12? I thought I saw 6 for Pagano. Did I write that down right? Yeah, I think Pagano and Caldwell are 6-1. Pagano's not 12. He's 12? I thought I saw six for Pagano.
Starting point is 00:22:05 Did I write that down right? Yeah, I think Pagano and Caldwell are 6-1. Gase, Fox, Lewis, 12. Yeah, all right. I wrote that down. Peyton, 20-1. McAdoo, O'Brien, Quinn, Hugh Jackson, Gruden, and Zimmer, 25-1. Malarkey, 25-1.
Starting point is 00:22:19 Peterson, 30-1. I have a wild card here. You might not like this. Belichick, 500 to 1. 500 to 1? What would have to happen? He'd have to just cheat like he normally does, but he gets exposed early. Like an affair with an employee or something?
Starting point is 00:22:34 Yeah, he goes after Kraft's girlfriend. Something like that. 500 to 1, good odds. 500 to 1? I mean, if you play life 500 times, she does one dumb thing. There you go. I still like Malarkey as a dark horse. So if the Titans suck or they start out slow or something goes wrong,
Starting point is 00:22:56 he'll get blamed immediately. One thing we learned is if a coach signs an extension, it doesn't mean shit. Like Fisher got canned, what, six days after his extension? So don't shy away because of that. Any other futures you like? Well, AFC minus one to win the Super Bowl. AFC minus one. Minus one.
Starting point is 00:23:18 That line, we always stare at it. We never do anything. And then we're always mad we didn't grab the extra three points. But I think AFC will clearly be minus three by the time the Super Bowl happens. And who would have to be in there for them not to be favored? So Patriots are favored. Steelers. Steelers are favored.
Starting point is 00:23:33 And then as they get, like, pick-em-ish. Yeah. Right in there. Patriots. But we both think the Steelers are going to be good. Yeah, I think one of those two will make it. I like that. We did our wins pool that we do every year.
Starting point is 00:23:45 Yeah. Over the weekend. I had third, 13, and 30. You had what? I had seven, 17, and 21 or 24 or something. My buddy Jaybug had first pick, took the Pats, obviously. I was going to take the Steelers at three. I thought Daniel, who was picking second, was going to take the Seahawks second.
Starting point is 00:24:05 Obviously, that's who you should take. He took the Cowboys. I don't know about the Seahawks. That's not laughable. Jeff Chow sends me a text. He's like, if you take the Cowboys second in the wind pool, you should be kicked out of the league. Really? Jeff Chow's mad. Have that, Daniel.
Starting point is 00:24:23 So I got Seattle at three and I got the Bucs at 13. Just so people know, you end up with three teams each. And there are two teams that weren't drafted. Right. Browns and Jets. Is that right? The Browns and Jets, which were the odds-on favorites before we did anything. Right.
Starting point is 00:24:40 I'm going to read. I don't even remember who I have now. I know I have Carolina. I know I have Miami. And then I can't who I have now. I know I have Carolina. I know I have Miami. And then I can't remember the third team. But you love Tampa Bay. You had Tampa Bay second, right? So team, if you want to do this wins pool, you still have two days to do it.
Starting point is 00:24:56 You can grab nine friends. First pick. Team one gets first pick 20th, 26th. Team two gets two 16 and 29. Team three gets three 13 and 30. Four 2 gets 2, 16, and 29. Team 3 gets 3, 13, and 30. 4, 18, and 25. 5, 15, and 27. 6, 19, and 22.
Starting point is 00:25:11 7, 11, and 28. 8, 17, and 21. 9, 14, and 23. And then the last team gets 10, 12, and 24. So I ended up 3, 13, and 30. And what's funny is it gets really slim pickings near the end. And we get to like 24. I'm like, I hope the 49ers are there at 30. And then they
Starting point is 00:25:30 fell to 30. They're terrible. I mean, I'm excited. I got the forward. Are they going to win five games? Yeah, I think so. But you want to get to about 29-30 wins. It was interesting seeing... Yeah, if you get like 12, 10, and 5, you're in it. The most surprising... So House had 9-14 and 23 to Texans,, 10, and 5, you're in it. The most surprised. So, House had 9, 14, and 23.
Starting point is 00:25:46 He took Texans, Cards, and Ravens. I thought the Ravens going to 23. I was shocked by that. I was thinking about them at 13. You like them higher. They had like seven guys out for the year already. Right? Tate's giving me a nod.
Starting point is 00:25:59 Yeah, a lot of injuries. And Flacco. You never know. Their D is still good, and they still have the home field, though. Very good. Yeah. It's funny. They start with the Bengals, and we'll get to it. And thenacco. You never know. Dude, D is still good, and they still have the home field, though. Very good. Yeah. It's funny. They start with the Bengals, and we'll get to it,
Starting point is 00:26:08 and then they end with the Bengals. I'm like, that's those team seasons right there. Right. One of those two. Because we don't think three AFC West teams are going to make the playoffs, right? I haven't. I have the two AFC Wild Cards being 500. Oh, you think it's going to be one of those?
Starting point is 00:26:26 Yeah, I think it's one of those. I think one pretty bad AFC team is going to get in. I really like the Chargers this year. You do? I do. I think they had the year from hell last year. There's some positive signs for them. I like the stuff they've done,
Starting point is 00:26:39 and I think that home field is going to be an advantage for them. You know, I feel bad because guys like Dan Fouts, it's a criminal that they're playing in such a small, and they're going to have to deal with that. It is going to be an advantage for them. You know, I feel bad because guys like Dan Fouts, like it's a criminal that they're playing in such a small, and they're going to have to deal with that. It's going to be awesome. I like it too. I think any time you get a small stadium and you can get in and out, just do it.
Starting point is 00:26:54 As long as the money's fine with these owners, keep that going forever. But the Chargers are the team every year. It's like, oh, they lost so many games by four points. They were like two and eight in games that are decided by four points. And they're like, so the next year they'll be better. No, it's always the same thing. They always lose those close games. So maybe changing coaches in stadiums will help.
Starting point is 00:27:15 Maybe it'll help. I think the stadium thing is going to help them. That stadium is cool, and I think it might make us rethink what we want in a football stadium when we see it in action. I think so, too. I don't think we'll go to one game. You don't. Right?
Starting point is 00:27:31 I think there's a lot of people like us saying, yeah, that's a cool idea. We'll go if our team's there. Yeah, I guess so. I guess so. Do you think this is the year that college football becomes more fun than pro football? No. College football is amazing. Even I got into college football this weekend.
Starting point is 00:27:45 Oh, the night games have been great. Chosen Rosen? Yeah, that was amazing. That was awesome? Yeah, we're going to have Rosen, Darnold talk all year long. It's going to be fun. Alabama looks like unstoppable, though. Yeah, and then Florida State's defense looked great.
Starting point is 00:27:57 Francois is out, but they really could hang for a while. What was the big gambling shocker for college football this week? Well, the biggest upset of all time occurred this week. Oh, we should talk about that. The college hoops. Is this a big against all odds topic, though? No, no, it's fine. We'll do it now.
Starting point is 00:28:13 Cam Newton's brother led Howard University to win over 45-point favorite UNLV, who was supposed to be good this year, UNLV. Good, fine, their quarterback. You know where my head immediately went when I heard this. What happened? Fix? Yeah. Really? It's like UNLV, who was supposed to be good this year, UNLV. Good, fine, their quarterback. You know where my head immediately went when I heard this. What happened? Fix? Yeah. Really?
Starting point is 00:28:28 It's like UNLV, biggest shot in the river. I'm like, oh, man. Oh, somebody got to the kids. That's it. Taking every UNLV game off the board. A 45-point underdog winning is just absolutely the craziest thing I've heard in like 10 years. It's bizarre. And Baylor lost to Liberty, right?
Starting point is 00:28:43 Yeah. I didn't see that. That was like a 33-point, right? Was it Liberty, right? Yeah. I didn't say that. That was like a 33 point, right? Was it even on TV? No, I don't think so. I couldn't catch that. Let's take a quick break to talk about Gillette. Did you know the tip of a Gillette razor blade is measured on an atomic scale?
Starting point is 00:28:58 Oh. Yeah. You're in the edge of your seat now. Meaning the blade edges are thinner than a single brain cell. That precision is the work of many brain cells. Hundreds of members of Gillette's research and development team have spent over 4,700 years combined working to make your shave closer and more comfortable. How often do you shave? Every day.
Starting point is 00:29:20 Not on weekends. Every day? Every day. Really? What about you? Never, right? I've had a beard for like the last two months because I hate shaving so much. But Gillette may talk me back into it.
Starting point is 00:29:27 You're the right guy reading this. Yeah. That's longer than the Egyptian pyramids have been around. 47 years. Over 1,000 craftsmen and women in Boston are busy making your blades. Another team. Putting your blades through more than 60 extremely strict and precise quality checks. The hardworking people of Gillette never stop working to make your blades better.
Starting point is 00:29:49 Now that includes the price tag. You can get Gillette blades at their lowest prices in years. Gillette blades is tough to say. Gillette blades. A lot of L's in there. See for yourself at GilletteOnDemand.com. Gillette, the best a man can get. That's a great tag for this. One of the five best ever. Yeah. The best a man can get. And there's a jingle to itondemand.com. Gillette, the best a man can get. That's a great tag for this.
Starting point is 00:30:06 One of the five best ever. Yeah. The best a man can get. And there's a jingle to it, too. Yeah. Pricing applies to slick products and is at the sole discretion of the retailer. Are you ready to guess, Lawrence?
Starting point is 00:30:17 I'm ready. I was... The best a man can get. Gillette! I'm sitting in the bubble bath with KD for our 11th interview of the summer, and he's shaving me with a Gillette. We're counting down
Starting point is 00:30:30 the Yacht Rock classics. KD's got a lot to say, man. KD and Yacht Rock. If you just toggle between KD and Yacht Rock, you're right. I was so delighted and pleased to be your Yacht Rock captain this weekend. You did a nice job. Jimmy, I think, was genuinely jealous. If he hosted job. Jimmy, I think, was genuinely jealous.
Starting point is 00:30:45 He hosted the Oscars. I think he was going to choose the Oscars again or Yacht Rock. Every song he was commenting on. He was sending some running diary on text. I said I wanted to do four hours, and Jimmy said there weren't four hours of Yacht Rock songs. I think he's right about that, because I was at his house, actually, probably an hour after that whole text exchange
Starting point is 00:31:05 after you counted them down. Yeah. And we started hearing repeats about 25 minutes. Yeah. There's probably about 48. Yeah. Rock songs. That's generous.
Starting point is 00:31:13 Yeah. All right. Guess the lines. Week one, Thursday night, the Patriots are playing home against the chiefs of Kansas city. I selected a line of minus 7.5 for this. Would you have, Sal?
Starting point is 00:31:26 I went low. I said 7, and it's 9. It's a steady 9. 9. They do not want us to tease this. They don't. NFL just went right off the bat. Six-point teasers.
Starting point is 00:31:37 They do not want us to bring this down to 2.5. God forbid the NFL give us a freebie on Thursday. Alex Smith, who seemed like he was going to lose his job, not going to lose his job. In place for week one. Who manages the game better than him? I think this line's too high. The Chiefs play the Patriots well.
Starting point is 00:31:54 I would not bet on the Chiefs, but it just, nine seems high. But is this a spot that the Pats screw up in? I don't think it is. Nine is high, but in terms of losing the game. I don't see it at all. No, I don't think they'll lose the game. I don't think it... Nine's high, but in terms of losing the game, I don't see it at all. No, I don't think they'll lose the game. I don't see it at all. But just nine seems high, week one. All right.
Starting point is 00:32:11 Remember last year? I don't think there was a line higher than six, remember? If I was smart, I would have brought the data on this, but I feel like the home team just kills in these games, in the first Thursday game. They usually do. Yeah. It's usually like 80, 85%. But you need a seven-point teaser to make this one work.
Starting point is 00:32:28 Well, basically they want us to do a three-team ten-point teaser, which we have sworn that we wouldn't do. And we're probably going to end up doing one in week one. Yeah, I think so. Because we have the Steelers in Cleveland. And Howard University. They're dying to be thrown in there. And then we'll just find the third team.
Starting point is 00:32:44 We're good to go. We'll find it. Now, we're breaking it down. And so that was Thursday night. Now there's a Sunday marquee game, Seattle-Green Bay. This is the best game of Sunday. You agree? Oh, sure.
Starting point is 00:32:55 Yeah. This is Joe Buck will be there. Troy Aikman. Yep. My dad and I may or may not have – my dad was in town. We may or may not have watched Super Bowl 51 yesterday. It was odd. I know you did.
Starting point is 00:33:10 You may or may not. You were tweeting about the score and everything. I might have watched it intently. Yeah. My dad's getting mad at certain plays. It was really funny. But we scored. It's 28-18.
Starting point is 00:33:22 There's like six minutes left. Going for the two point. And Troy Eggman goes, this is like six minutes left. Going for the two-point. And Troy Eggman goes, this is a big two-point right here for the Patriots. It was the best. It was his best master of the odd. He was totally right. Okay. All right.
Starting point is 00:33:34 Back off. He was right. It was a big one. But the Falcons went backwards twice. 28-18. They had the ball on our 40 twice out of their last four drives and just went backwards 20 yards and then had the fumble on the other one.
Starting point is 00:33:50 It's an incredible collapse. You sure you like Shanahan? You sure you like your Niners pick in the Winspool? I think that was part Dan Quinn, though. I think because they showed the sideline and Dan Quinn's like, we got to keep attacking. Impossible game to lose. I don't know how they lost it.
Starting point is 00:34:06 We were just watching it in disbelief that the Patriots won the game. What did you say? 28-18? Still 7-1 odds. I remember looking at my phone. Just even before the two point. Then Jones makes the catch on the sidelines and the game should be over. That was right after that. The two points were easier than any
Starting point is 00:34:21 I've ever seen. Converting both two points at the end. I think I figured out when Brady got concussed, if he did get concussed. What? On the last drive, when they're like near the goal line, he gets hit, he gets rid of the ball, but the offensive lineman elbows him in the back of the head. And I think somehow
Starting point is 00:34:38 it made him play better being buzzed. Of course it did. But his head gets nailed. I think that's what Gisele was talking about. Only Gisele knows. Sunday marquee, I have Green Bay at home, minus three over the Seahawks of Seattle. I thought that was a little low. There was a time when anyone went to Lambeau.
Starting point is 00:34:54 It was four or more or six or more. I said four, but you're right on. It's three. It's only three. Surprisingly. Could this be one of your picks? I think this is a huge, huge game. Both teams end up 12-4.
Starting point is 00:35:11 Green Bay wins this one. Seattle's going to Lambeau in January. It's as big a game as you can get early in the season. It's surprising that this is just an afternoon game. You could argue this is one of the four best games of the entire year. It's certainly better than Cowboys-Giants. Who are the geniuses to put Dallas Giants on a Sunday night? I don't know how they thought of that. That was on the first
Starting point is 00:35:32 Sunday night. I think what they think is that when it's Cowboys and Giants, that's going to get the highest rating every single time. It's built in. Alright, so now we have, you called it the Poopfecta. Yeah, let's rip through this. Three games. Terrible. Jets at Bills. I had Bills by six. Okay. We don't know who the quarterback is for the Bills. You're killing me already. I
Starting point is 00:35:53 said Bills by four. It's seven and a half. And I think it was nine when they knew, when they thought Ty Taylor was playing. I think Nick Peterman's going to be great. That is your younger brother? Rob Peterman? I'll say this. The Jets. Who's the Jets quarterback? McCown? It's McCown.
Starting point is 00:36:10 And they're going to get, I guess they're going to get, by the looks of this line, they're going to get double digits all year long. Well. I don't know. In the ZFL, which you've been a member of for a while. Right. Gus, my buddy Gus, his buddy John Oaks, he used to call it a John Oaks game. When a team was favored by seven or more
Starting point is 00:36:27 that had no business being favored by seven or more over anybody, I would say the Bills qualify. I still have no idea why they traded Ronald Darby. Ronald Darby's just a good cornerback. He's 24. What do you need to pick down in the future? Why don't you just keep Ronald Darby? This is what I mean.
Starting point is 00:36:42 He doesn't totally fit in our defense? What? He's like the eighth best cornerback in the league. Have you't you just keep Ronald Darby? This is what I mean. He doesn't totally fit in our defense. What? He's like the eighth best cornerback in the league. Have you ever seen two teams in a division basically announce that they're tanking? They're stockpiling draft. Stockpiling draft picks means you're going to suck this year. The Bills traded Watkins.
Starting point is 00:36:55 They traded Reggie Ragland. This team is done. What are they doing? Can we go under with all these teams? This is a loser and winner leaves town match. Oh, yeah. Right? Watkins is one of those guys.
Starting point is 00:37:08 I just judge it by when I watched the Pats-Bills games, and it seemed like he was open all the time. Right. And the passers would just sail over his head, or they'd bounce to him. And it was hard not to watch him and just think, like, I wonder what it's going to be like if he has a good quarterback. If he could ever put it together. Now he goes to the Rams.
Starting point is 00:37:23 He still doesn't. He still doesn't have one. But I understood that trade, at least, because it's like, they like if he has a good quarterback. If he could ever put it together. Now he goes to the Rams. He still doesn't. He still doesn't have one. But I understood that trade at least because it's like they probably don't think they can keep him. He might get hurt again. You're getting a second. But the Ronald Darby makes no sense. I don't understand why you give away a young asset. You're rebuilding.
Starting point is 00:37:37 He's a young asset. We want a younger asset. If you're Ty Taylor and you knew that they were going to go get rid of Watkins, get rid of everybody, would you rather be on the Jaguars this year? Wouldn't you try to test it? Yeah. Yeah. I think they screwed them. I understand.
Starting point is 00:37:52 All right. That's a bad game. Cards at Lions. I had the Lions by three. We both screwed this up. I had the Lions by three also. Cards by one and a half. Wow.
Starting point is 00:38:04 And then I looked at the over-unders. It kind of makes sense, I guess. Cards are one and a half. Wow. And then I looked at the over-unders. It kind of makes sense, I guess. Cards are eight and a half, and Lions are seven and a half. What am I missing with the cards? How is Carson Palmer not worse this year than he was last year? I think they're going to be all right. I think they're actually going to be okay. I thought they would compete for the division before Seattle made all these moves.
Starting point is 00:38:21 But now with Sheldon Richards in there, there's going to be two games where Carson Palmer is just two steps and he's on his back. Yeah. That's going to be it. So that's not a good thing? No, no. Now it's bad. But I do think he beats up on some of those other division teams.
Starting point is 00:38:34 You think Vegas is just like Detroit? It's not happening again. No. You're not winning all these ludicrous games again. You're going 4-12. So who's our team? Like last year, the Lions were our team, our full of shit team. We were like, I don't care.
Starting point is 00:38:45 I'm betting against them every week. Who's the team that screws us each week? Who is it this year? Is it Tennessee? Because I feel like we're already like against Tennessee and they're going to have some juice. Yeah, Tennessee is a possibility. What about the Vikings? I kind of like the Vikings.
Starting point is 00:39:01 I kind of like the Vikings. Shut Tate's mic off. It's a bad experiment. I think the Bengals are another one that could get me in trouble. I don't believe in them at all. I can't believe they just brought everyone back. I'm with you. Mays did his preview.
Starting point is 00:39:14 The Mays' previews were good this year. He broke it down in parts. And for the Bengals, he's just like, he's listing all these other teams. It's like, you know, their defense isn't that good, but their offense is. Everybody's got one good thing, one bad thing. The Bengals, it's like nothing's really bad. It's just nothing's that good either. They're kind of nowhere.
Starting point is 00:39:32 They're B-minus across the board. And I could see being frustrated by them. Yeah, I'm willing to lose a lot of money on them with you. Whatever you want to do. I feel like the Rams could be kind of a wildcard weirdo team. Yeah, well, that's our next game. Colts at Rams. I feel like the Rams could be kind of a wild card weirdo team. Yeah. Well, that's our next game. Colts at Rams.
Starting point is 00:39:47 So I have the Rams by five at home over the Colts, and that's probably too low. This jumped all over the place. Back in June when they thought Luck was playing, the Colts were favored by three. Rams are favored by three and a half. I said two, so we split that, right? You said five, I said two. Three and a half's the number. Look at this Rams schedule.
Starting point is 00:40:10 I know it. Their home first two games for Indy and Washington, then they go to San Francisco on a Thursday. They could be legit out of nowhere 3-0 while we're all wondering what the hell's going on. I have three W's right by their first three. Look at that. At Dallas is a loss.
Starting point is 00:40:25 Home for Seattle, that's a loss. At Jacksonville, home for Zona. They could be four and three, and then who knows? Just sign already, Aaron Donald. Wade Phillips has taken over that defense. He could do nice things. Are we going to have a meal with Wade Phillips? A meal?
Starting point is 00:40:41 Yeah. Why? Wade Phillips is here. Oh, really? You want to? Wouldn't it be fun to have a meal with? Definitely. You could talk about how he frustrated you as a coach when you've come to grips with it.
Starting point is 00:40:50 Let's put the invitation out there. I want to have a meal with Wade Phillips. We're going to have a meal with you, Wade. We'll get some barbecue. I love it. I didn't even think of that. Yeah. All right.
Starting point is 00:40:59 Now we go with road favorites. I think the Colts are going to be flat out atrocious this year. Regardless of whether luck comes back or not, I think they're going to be stuck. I'm with you, brother. Same way. They blew Dick Grigson, who ran their team from 12 to 16 in his 2012 draft was good. Then you look at 13,
Starting point is 00:41:16 14, 15, there's nobody left. It was basically like they just punted on three straight drafts. Pagano over on their Halloween. Pagano. Well, he's like the fall guy now, right? If they go to him and say, we want to throw this year away. I don't think.
Starting point is 00:41:33 What do you think over under for. Should we do Cousin Sal's special edition of Cousin Sal's Make Believe Casino? Oh, yeah. Let's do it. Present it back to your intro. I don't have it handy. Rattle it off. Okay. All right.
Starting point is 00:41:43 You know, once in a while, we'll get together and we'll come up with fake props having to do with sports or pop culture. And Captain Morgan's Riverboat Casino, Make Believe Riverboat Casino, has opened up their doors to us. And we're going to get on board. You did it. We ad-libbed it. Kind of. Do we have yacht rock on the Captain Morgan's Make Believe Casino or no? 24 hours a day, you're counting down the same three songs.
Starting point is 00:42:06 We're drinking responsibly and listening to the same nine songs over and over again. Urge to drink responsibly. Captain Morgan's Make-Believe Casino, week one. Andrew Luck, over, under games he plays this year. I'm going to say eight and a half. Do you go over, under? Wow. I'm going to say under.
Starting point is 00:42:21 I think I go under, too. I saw reports that he might start week five, but I also saw stuff that he's not ready until week 12. What do you go? He said he was going to be back, try to be back by week two. He goes over. He's a liar. No, no, no, no. I'm going under.
Starting point is 00:42:34 You're going under. I'm a liar. Well, Andrew. Oh, wow. Andrew Lux in the studio right now. How do you respond to being called a liar? My shoulders responded to the treatment, and I would love to be back for week two. I have a lot of faith in our guys, though.
Starting point is 00:42:50 A lot of faith. There you go, Andrew, the giant luck weighing in on his prognosis. So we're both going under for eight and a half. Yeah, I think so. And the Captain Morgan's Bank Leave Casino. There you go. Come on, Dan Sanborn. This is great content.
Starting point is 00:43:04 Drink responsibly already. Yeah. All right. All right. Pittsburgh you go. Come on, Dan Sanborn. This is great content. Drink responsibly already. Yeah. All right. All right. Pittsburgh and Cleveland. This is a road favorite section. We have four road favorites that I thought were going to be road favorites, and you said there's more than four or less than four.
Starting point is 00:43:15 No, there's more than four. No, there's fewer. You'll see. Okay. Go ahead. So I had Steelers minus nine and a half at the Browns. Yeah. Okay. So I went low on this. You'll see. Okay, go ahead. So I had Steelers minus 9.5 at the Browns. Yeah, okay. So I went low on this.
Starting point is 00:43:28 You're crushing me again. I said 7.5, and it's 9. So you get that one. This game scares me for some reason, and I can't figure out why. Really? I think there's very obvious three-team teaser potential. There's been weird Steelers-Brown games in the past where I remember either last year or the year before,
Starting point is 00:43:47 the Steelers were heavy favorites and the Browns weren't. Remember, they went up to like a 20-0 lead. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Crowell was going nuts, and then the Steelers rallied back and somehow covered. But there's always weirdness with these two teams. They always finish the season against each other. Yeah, be careful with this game. All right.
Starting point is 00:43:58 Well, I don't know. I don't know. You think Cleveland has won in 17 in season openers. That's pretty rough to overcome. The thing with these Cleveland stats is you could tell me You think Cleveland is 1-17 in season openers? That's pretty rough to overcome. The thing with these Cleveland stats is you could tell me any terrible Cleveland stat. I made that up. No, they are.
Starting point is 00:44:12 They are 1-17. I swear. I saw a stat that Cleveland, for the last four years, has started three quarterbacks in each of the last four years. Yeah, right. And this could be the fifth straight year they started at least three quarterbacks. Yeah, this one won't hurt anyone's feelings. Everyone gets to play. Here's the difference with them.
Starting point is 00:44:24 This is a real prop. 14 and a half games started over under. Really? Fifth straight year, they started at least three quarterbacks. Yeah, this one won't hurt anyone's feelings. Everyone gets to play. Here's the difference with them. This is a real prop. 14 and a half games started over under. Really? What do you think? Is he that fragile? Is he as fragile as everyone's saying? We know he's starting this one.
Starting point is 00:44:39 I'd go under. Wow. I like the fact that the Browns finally have just an absolute kick-ass guy, Myles Garrett. Oh, yeah. That's fun. I don't know how they didn't screw that up. For all the high picks they've had, and they've had good players, Joe Thomas. They've never had the guy who's just you're listing the best eight, nine,
Starting point is 00:45:01 whatever guys in the league, and he's definitely one. And he might just be awesome right away. And that might be, what if he has three sacks? What if he nails Roethlisberger? Yeah, that's true. He's the first time they've had at least a little bit of an X factor. They may have had a kick-ass guy in Terrell Pryor when he has 12 touchdowns this year.
Starting point is 00:45:19 We're going to look back like, oh, they used to have that guy. A lot of fantasy love for Terrell Pryor. Yeah, a lot of it. As somebody who rode with him on fantasy teams from really day one, he's a little frustrating. Oh, yeah, I'm sure. I think as a number one Kirk Cousins, do you like this guy? He was on the Browns.
Starting point is 00:45:36 He was on the Browns. Falcons at the Bears. I had Falcons four and a half for this one. I'm going to assume you won here because I'm getting my ass kicked. Let me find it. Chicago. Atlanta, Chicago. I had plus six. No, I win this. It's plus seven. Falcons
Starting point is 00:45:53 on grass? Yeah, that's weird. Glennon starting. Mm-hmm. What do you think, Tate? How long? How long before? I think four weeks. Are we back in the make-believe casino? Oh, my God. Who would have been another Tate Colada? We can't get off this thing. tate how long how long before i think four weeks are we back in the make-believe casino four weeks okay yeah you said that a couple weeks ago you said the match up thing remember match up through all those pick sixes all in a row and it just like got in his head he's right there that's great this one scares me too who's those pick sixes all in a row and it just got in his head? He's right there. That's great.
Starting point is 00:46:25 This one scares me, too. Who's not putting the Falcons in a tease? Right. That's good. So you don't want Falcons picked in New England. Be afraid of the Falcons. You're from hell. Well, don't take two road games on a teaser.
Starting point is 00:46:37 That's for sure. We don't recommend that. Raiders at the Titans. I had the Raiders by two and a half in Tennessee. Here's the screwy one. I had Oakland by two. This is not a road favorite. Tennessee's favorite by two. So you get this.
Starting point is 00:46:52 I get it. And this is why we're going to lose so much money on Tennessee this year. Lines like this. But Vegas's job is to put the line in the middle and try to get an equal amount of action. For whatever reason, America has decided Tennessee is going to be good this year. So they move the line up to try to attract the same.
Starting point is 00:47:11 I think we're on the right side of this. You do? Yeah, I do. I think Houston's the best team in that division. And I think Tennessee is going to hurt people's feelings. I'm trying to think. Do they have the same? Is it over-under wins the same for these two teams?
Starting point is 00:47:23 Yeah, it was. They are. Oakland is 9.5 and Tennessee is also 9.5? That can't be. Yeah, Tennessee's 9.5. Last row team, Panthers minus. Wait, hold on. Anything on Romo Nance for that game?
Starting point is 00:47:36 Is that the one? That's a good first game, right? Raiders-Titans is Romo's first game? I think that's the best CBS game, right? Which one would you take? I was going to make you call Romo at the end of this podcast, see if he answered. Would he answer? It's like 50-50, I would say.
Starting point is 00:47:52 He'll text back. Yeah, he would text back for sure. Yeah, that's the best game. That's the best AFC CBS game. Is that an early game or a late game? I think that's an early game, actually. It is early, yep. And then the last road favorite, Panthers at the 49ers.
Starting point is 00:48:09 I had the Panthers by three and a half. And that's probably too low. I had, this is a late afternoon game, I had four and a half. It's six. So you think either Carolina or Atlanta gets tripped up this week as a road favorite? I think the 49ers are going to be better than people think. Do you think either Carolina or Atlanta gets tripped up this week as a road favorite? I think the 49ers are going to be better than people think. Because as we learn every year, especially when you have this much turnover,
Starting point is 00:48:39 having a good coach is way more important than I think people give it credit for. And I don't know, him and Hoyer. I mean, Hoyer, Garcon, Marquise Goodwin I wouldn't bet on them I'll give you $1,000 and an hour If you can name their starting tight end And I'll even let you try to look it up Is it Vernon Davis? Do you know this, Tate?
Starting point is 00:48:57 I do, unfortunately Who? George Kittle Wow! That's Mays Lutz, that dude Yeah, it was a fifth rounder, right? Yeah, fifth rounder. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:49:06 It's going to be good. I said to Tate before we started taping this, because Tate's a Panthers fan. Yeah. The Panthers, you almost can't bet on them. Are they going to win the division? Are they going to make the playoffs? Because everything depends on whether Luke Kuechly can stay out there for four months. Yeah, that's true.
Starting point is 00:49:21 If he gets hurt, they're done. They're a seven win team without him. And they might be an 11 win team with him. You just don't know. And who knows? I don't know. A linebacker who's going to be leading with his head. I don't see how he finishes the season.
Starting point is 00:49:34 Are we too racist saying it's all on Keekly and McCaffrey's shoulders here? But I feel like McCaffrey's a perfect player for Cam, right? Like you don't have to go deep to Kelvin Benjamin. You don't have to worry if he's trying to catch a ball or not. He seemed like he got the seven-yard flare pattern right there, probably most downs. I agree with you, but Cam being healthy is going to be the big thing for them, whether they can protect him.
Starting point is 00:49:59 I think McCaffrey's going to be an amazing toy to watch. I'm really excited for the rookies this year. I like all four of those rookie running backs, including the one that I just found out about two days ago. The Chiefs. Kareem. It's like Kareem Abdul-Han. What?
Starting point is 00:50:14 There's some other good ones. Zay Jones is like the feature receiver now in Buffalo. There's good rookies all over the place. Good year to buy football cards. Donta Foreman, right? Could start in Houston, right? Let's do, actually, Sunday Watchables. Cincinnati at Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:50:31 They end the season and begin the season with each other. We think these next four games are watchable. Yes. I had the Bengals minus three and a half at home. I had the same. Against the Ravens. I had the same, three and a half, home. I had the same. Against the Ravens. I had the same. Three and a half, and it's three.
Starting point is 00:50:47 It should be. It always feels like these are three-point games. And I'm with you. Yeah. Why did we say three and a half? It's weird to say week one that you feel like somebody sees it as on the line, but whoever wins this home-and-home matchup with these two teams is going to maybe be a playoff team.
Starting point is 00:51:01 Good luck grabbing the wild card if you lose this game. It's going to be tough. This feels like one of those games where there's two lead changes in the last 10 minutes. Let's go back to Baltimore. Right. Where Mike Wallace is. You know, it's one of those. Red zone.
Starting point is 00:51:16 Washington at home against the Eagles. I had Washington by three. We both tanked this. I had Washington by four. Philly by one and a half. Wow. And then you look at the over-unders. Eight and a half for Philly wins totals.
Starting point is 00:51:33 And a total in Washington, seven and a half. I don't know. I'm not buying it. I'm not in love with all these free agent moves for Philly. Does this ever work out, really? A lot of turnover. Wentz, the last 10, 11 games, just was not good. I don't see it.
Starting point is 00:51:50 I really don't. I don't see it. I don't think they're well coached. I think the quarterback remains to be seen, whether he's a franchise guy or not. I don't see it. I'm a little higher on Washington than maybe I should be. Washington will be able to, you know, they still have Crowder. Pryor, you would think, would be able to do some of the stretch the field stuff.
Starting point is 00:52:09 Cousins is still a guy who threw for 4,000 yards in two straight seasons. Yep. Jordan Reed, top two, three. Hopefully healthy. Tight end in the league. Yeah. And Vernon Davis behind him. Vernon Davis.
Starting point is 00:52:21 There you go. Yeah. Vernon Davis. There he is. Yeah. As long as they don't have, like, 22-year-olds retiring, they should be okay. Sal, I have a prediction. Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:52:30 I think this is the line that moves. Based on our thing? No, on Sunday morning, I think all of a sudden the Washington professional football team is favored by two and a half. Oh, okay. I think this line moves three points over the weekend. All right, good. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:44 Let's grab it now. Jacksonville and Houston? Shea's coming on this week, by the way. We're going to talk about Houston and what we can do on the ringer side to help out with this whole thing, because God damn. But it looks like the game's staying in Houston.
Starting point is 00:53:02 I had Houston by six. You nailed it. I said six and a half, but that would be a little higher. It is minus six. Are we confident enough to put that in a teaser? No, not at all. No? You know my rule.
Starting point is 00:53:14 I don't put shaky quarterbacks in teasers. I'm not putting Tom Savage in a teaser. You're not going to make me. You're going against a really shaky quarterback, though, Blake Bortles. Here's the counterargument to that. How many more weeks do we have to bet against Blake Bortles? Oh, right. Remember that when Schaub lost it?
Starting point is 00:53:35 Mm-hmm. That September and October of that year, and he just fell off a cliff. Mm-hmm. And we started looking at each other like, oh, man, we only have two weeks left before they realize. Stallone was like this, too. I think Bortles could be like that. You know, Houston's plus 180 to make the playoffs. Yeah, I don't understand any of the Houston.
Starting point is 00:53:53 I went through their schedule, and honestly, I only found three quarterbacks that could torch them. Really? And four of luck. Yeah, it was like Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, and Brady. And you go through the rest of them, and it's just a lot of middle-of-the-road guys or bad guys. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:07 All right. Last one, Dolphins-Bucks. We don't know where or if this game's going to be played. Well, it'll definitely be played. It's just we don't know. Well, it could be week 11, right? Oh, you think they'll actually move and give them a bye week? They considered canceling it, but they could move it to London.
Starting point is 00:54:25 Miami has to play in London anyway. Let me get rid of this London shit early. We'll go home and we'll play there. Miami, if they're in a neutral site, I'm not sure if it's that much of a different home field advantage for them than being in Miami. But I had Miami by two and a half. Who knows?
Starting point is 00:54:42 I had Miami by three and a half. Tampa Bay by two and a half is a favorite. They're one of the public teams this year. That's the third time we've done this. And you love them, too. You picked them in the wins. I do. I think Tampa's, if we made our list of eight teams that can win the Super Bowl, I think they're on the list.
Starting point is 00:55:00 Really? I do. I think they remind me of Atlanta last year. There's a lot of stuff lined up for them. I think everyone has a hard knocks hard on for them. That's what I'm going to call it. If they weren't on hard knocks, I think I would have had the same. I just like the team.
Starting point is 00:55:13 And when they added T.J. Ward, I was like, wow, now this is getting serious because he's going to be just headhunting everyone in the NFC South because he's a badass. Because their offense is there. Their defense is good. They have Wright and Howard at tight end. They have Deshaun Jackson. They have Evans and Winston.
Starting point is 00:55:28 Evans is going to be unleashed. Could Doug Martin take? Could he come back and have a big year? Yeah, he's back. I don't know. But that's like the easiest position. If they need to find a running back in week six, they can go find one. Lombardi and I were texting back and forth about who the best defenses were,
Starting point is 00:55:42 trying to figure it out. Let me guess, Patriots. No, they were not in one of the eight teams mentioned. But it was basically Seahawks, Giants, and Ravens. And then there was a slight drop off to like the next four. And he thought the Bucs could potentially could be like in that 6, 7, 8 range for defenses. The Steelers are better this year defensively.
Starting point is 00:56:03 That's true. They're in really good shape. Minnesota's got to be up there. Minnesota was in there. I forget who the – there's one other one that was a good one. Don't count the Rams. The Broncos, of course. Rams, like in the 8-9 range potentially.
Starting point is 00:56:17 They could get there. All right. Yeah, man. The Bucs – I think the Bucs, would you agree that they have the highest upside of all those next-tier teams? Yeah, I would say, aside from the Titans who we're going to hate all year. Yeah. Hold on.
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Starting point is 00:57:34 You have a lot of slashes. You have a stroke over there? I need some water. Sunday night. Here we go. Here we go. They did it again. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:44 My son has a flag football game at 5 p.m. Isn't that great? They know they're effing with me at this point, right? 5 p.m.? I'm the asshole parent. It's going to be watching something other than Don't ever feel bad about that.
Starting point is 00:57:59 I went to four soccer games in two days on Saturday and Sunday. There was two different games where parents yelling at the refs, parents yelling at each other. It's really getting heated. Do you get involved in that? These 12-year-old girls, I more enjoy it. I just kind of sit back. Yeah, you almost can't.
Starting point is 00:58:17 Yeah, I probably can't. But these 12-year-old girls are getting chippy. There's elbows. We had a girl who had a bloody nose. Really? It's really chippy. My daughter, after the game, after one of these games, we were walking by the team. She was trying to search out the girl she was still mad at.
Starting point is 00:58:31 I'm like, what's going on? You have to set a line on these games. Make it fun. Oh, man. We lost to – we played two of the best teams in Southern California and lost one goal each. And one of them was last fight. We're getting close. All right.
Starting point is 00:58:44 We're coming up. We could be a hard knock next year, we're getting close. All right. It's cut. We're coming up. We're, we, we can be a hard doc. You're getting close to having to go to a tournament six days a week. But I have, she has,
Starting point is 00:58:55 she has games Saturday and Sunday this week. And of course the Sundays, I like 1120, which is like the all time you go, you get back the one o'clock. So I might, I actually might not go. I don't want to miss it. Start listing all the events. And then you, you present a book to Zoe when she turns 18. I just want, you get back at 1 o'clock. So I actually might not go. I don't want to miss week one. You should start listing all the events,
Starting point is 00:59:05 and then you present a book to Zoe when she turns 18. It's like, I just want you to know. I love going to games, but this is what I missed. I missed the three of the Patriots Super Bowl. It is kind of like more exciting than having your team in the Super Bowl. It is. When it's your own DNA. I hate to say it.
Starting point is 00:59:21 Yeah, it is. Cowboys minus four over the Giants is what I came up with. I had four also and they're keeping it at three and a half as of this morning. Without making this too complicated or providing any commentary on it because I don't really feel like even getting into it.
Starting point is 00:59:38 How do you want this Elliott thing to play out just as a pure football, what's best for the team just to get the suspension over with or have them come back and then have it hang over? to play out just as a pure football, what's best for the team, just to get the suspension over with or have them come back and then have it hang over? Do you just want to get it over with? Zero games. No, no.
Starting point is 00:59:54 I felt shitty when I heard that the Players Association was backing him. I was like, let's just kind of – and as a Cowboys fan, obviously we were better off with him in the backfield. I don't even want to take chances with the best offensive line and McFadden and Morris. I would love to see him play, but he's, he's got it. He's got us at four, six games. He's got to, right.
Starting point is 01:00:17 It's tough for the players association though, because their job is to protect the players and to protect the process. And this is exactly what happened to deflate gate where the commissioner just says i've decided this and you can't challenge it because i'm the commissioner so that's it's gonna have the same outcome that the flake gate did yeah it's already been established so just let it go who the who the hell knows exactly what happened obviously something bad happened and i mean i i feel like they have evidence because there's no charges right like so i think yeah you have evidence because there's no charges, right? So I think you have to think there's something we're missing here.
Starting point is 01:00:50 Yeah, who knows? Either way, I just wish he were a better guy. He's not a great guy. Yeah. Monday night, New Orleans at Minnesota. This is the Adrian Peterson Bowl. Vikings versus Saints. That's another way to say it.
Starting point is 01:01:07 Vikings versus Saints. I feel like there's history with this matchup. Like a fun history. Like there's been fun games. I have no evidence whatsoever. I just saw the matchup. I was like, that'll be a fun game. I have no idea why I even felt that way.
Starting point is 01:01:19 Well, no. Wasn't that the Brett Favre playoff game? I think they've had a lot of fun games. Yeah, that was a great game. But Adrian Peterson, who may, that was a great game. But Adrian Peterson, who may not even factor in this game, that will be the storyline. How is a running back going to get revenge?
Starting point is 01:01:34 What, is he going to hit the hole harder? If it's a quarterback, it's one thing, but a running back... You're going to get seven touches. Go! I had the Vikings by three and a half. With that said, I have my eye on the Saints team. There's a friskiness about them that I – they finally beefed up their defense, which was probably a good idea, but – You nailed it. You nailed it.
Starting point is 01:01:53 I said four. It's three and a half. Killing me this week. Somebody from the NFC South, I think the Bucs are in. I'm all in on the Bucs. I put my chips on the Bucs table. You think someone's going to be really bad? No, I think somebody else is going to
Starting point is 01:02:06 be good in that division, and the Panthers would be my first choice. That's who I am. If Keekly gets hurt, my Falcons would be second choice, but Saints right behind them as a third choice. There's going to be two 10-win teams in this division. Tate, the Panthers won 15 games not 10 years ago, right?
Starting point is 01:02:21 Two years ago. Yeah, a lot of people forget. They might get it back. I mean, Josh Norman, maybe that took a year to figure out. Plus Gettleman's gone. There was a lot of bad ego and a lot of stuff in there. Could you see Bucs 11 wins, Panthers 11 wins, Saints 10 wins, and Falcons 8-8? Let me look at my cards. I mean, this is the division.
Starting point is 01:02:42 It's going to be something like that. So every team is expected to go over 500, according to Vegas. Which usually when people think that's going to happen, that's actually usually what happens. Yeah, it's right around there. Maybe a team of seven and eight going into last season. But I had the Saints at seven wins. I think that they struggle, and they have the same struggles they always do.
Starting point is 01:03:01 Okay. I don't know. Adrian Peterson Bowl. This is the game, by the way, everyone gets pissed off at because it starts at 4-10 West Coast time. Right. Actually, this starts at 4-10 so the West Coasters are like, I'm not out of work
Starting point is 01:03:14 yet. What are you doing? And then the next one starts at San Diego-Denver. Which we loved. Yeah, that's great for us. It's the best. We're going to miss Boomer, though. Boomer used to be he used to call one of these games, right? I'm well aware. Now it's the best we're gonna miss boomer though boomer used to be he used to call one of these games right i'm well aware now it's like now they teach they fired everyone they only have one on-air personality he has to fly he has like eight minutes to fly from uh minneapolis to denver no better example of him grinding than that.
Starting point is 01:03:45 Who do you have, Denver? I have a – this is in Denver, we should say. We should also mention that Phil Rivers has a history of going into Denver and wreaking havoc, and all the Broncos fans are afraid of Phil Rivers. We should also mention Trevor Simeon is still the quarterback of the Broncos. Wait a minute. They have a very capable backup now. The heist is there.
Starting point is 01:04:06 Brock Osweiler. It's the three-headed crap monster. And then they had to waive TJ Ward. The defense definitely isn't going to be as good this year. They lost guys from last year's defense that were good. Right. And I like this Chargers team. I have been eyeing this game all week.
Starting point is 01:04:23 I have Broncos by five, and I like the Chargers. Number 21 against the Rush, Denver. As good as their defense is. Last year, they were 21 against the Rush. You had five. I had five. It's three and a half. So the two Monday night games are three and a half.
Starting point is 01:04:35 And you killed me like, I don't know. It's nothing personal. Nine to three to four. No, I'm taking it personally. Nothing personal, buddy. I'm taking it personally this week. Nine, three, four. Son of a bitch.
Starting point is 01:04:44 Week one power poll really quick. This is my top five. Go ahead. Pat Seahawks, Steelers, Cowboys, Packers. Pat Seahawks. Steelers, Cowboys, Packers. What do you think? You're in tune with Vegas, except they have Green Bay tied with Pittsburgh above Dallas.
Starting point is 01:05:05 Yeah, I put Carolina fifth. except they have Green Bay tied with Pittsburgh above Dallas. Here's my tier. Yeah, that's got to be. I put Carolina fifth. Wow, okay. I'm not kissing your ass, Tate. Carolina. My second tier. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:14 Raiders, Bucks, Texans, Chiefs, Falcons slash Panthers. One of those two. Good. I think that's your top ten this year. And then I think your wild cards from the third tier, in my opinion. The Tennessee fans are going to hate us. Chargers. I agree with you on the Vikings.
Starting point is 01:05:38 I might put them second tier. If the running back's really, really good, Cook. Yeah. If he just lights out awesome. It doesn't matter how home Bradford is. Yeah. If he's just lights out awesome. It doesn't matter how home Bradford is. Yeah. Yeah. Because their D will be good.
Starting point is 01:05:49 They have the home field. I'm with you. They have some crappy teams they're playing. All that stuff. I like it. Tell me about your podcast this year. Against all odds, we will go over all 32 team over-unders. Look at Tate.
Starting point is 01:06:00 He's already exhausted. Having to hear Harry's thoughts. But yeah, we're going to go over all 32. Maybe it's exhausted having to hear Harry's thoughts. But yeah, we're going to go overall 32. Maybe it's an hour. Maybe it's two. And maybe we'll throw some arena teams in there as well. I went to Hawaii last week.
Starting point is 01:06:14 Yeah. It's three hours behind LA. And on Sunday, the Red Sox game came on at like 7.32 or something in the morning. I was still having coffee. I was thinking like, this is where I want to end up. Right. Football coming on Sundays at 7 o'clock in the morning. Right.
Starting point is 01:06:36 Watch the sunrise. The coffee's on. It's, you know, everyone, we, you and I are from the East Coast. Yeah. And we just lived there and you get used to it. You don't know any better. Yeah. You know, you're like, oh yeah, we had another blizzard. there and you get used to it. You don't know any better. You're like, oh, yeah, we had another blizzard. My car got towed. And you just don't know any better.
Starting point is 01:06:50 And you go to Hawaii and it's like sports is coming out at 7 in the morning. It's beautiful. It is nice. I can totally see why Chris Berman is just like, I'm out. He's just in Hawaii. The one bad thing, good friend of mine, Neil Everett, lived in Hawaii. And he said, and he's not saying he's talking about himself, but he's like, when you're screaming at the TV at 7 in the morning, you can't hide that you have a gambling problem. Well, since when did we ever want to hide it?
Starting point is 01:07:17 Yeah, I know. No, I don't want to hide it. I don't want to hide it. And just great fish, nice, healthy fish. Good for you. What a great place that is. You can live there. I think I want to end up there.
Starting point is 01:07:25 I think the ringer might be moving there. But the sports coming on that early was really a game changer. That's really early. Hitch is sending me angry texts about the Red Sox at 8 in the morning. That's really early. Hitch has lost his mind with the Red Sox. You can ask him about it tonight. Has he?
Starting point is 01:07:40 Okay. Yeah. We have Xander Bogarts, who's hitting 200 since the All-Star break and who's left 5,000 people on base and clearly has a broken wrist. There's some weird splint on it that they won't talk about. And Hentz just
Starting point is 01:07:55 texted me when Xander Bogarts is walking to the batter's back. Oh, here we go! Think strikeout whiffing or looking? What do you think? He takes it personally. And Mookie Betts has completely lost all of his ability to hit the ball here we go. Think strikeout whiffing or looking? What do you think? Like just he's personally, he really does. And Mookie Betts has completely lost all of his ability to hit the ball for some reason. But this is nice.
Starting point is 01:08:11 You can go into the season like the Indians and Astros are so freaking good. Like your expectations are a little lower now, right? It's starting to feel like 2011 a little bit. Yeah. Like there's collapse potential now, which worries me. But we were on a thread yesterday with Mally Rubin, the mother of dragons, about trying
Starting point is 01:08:28 to figure out. An American League team. Yeah, because I don't think any of these American League teams are lights out. I have. Everyone's like, oh, the Astros now, Verlander. I have all their pitchers on my fantasy team. None of them have been pitching well. Right.
Starting point is 01:08:40 And it does feel like something weird is going to happen in the AL. The Yankees, I think, were plus 750. And you look at their bullpen and some of their bats. What was Cleveland? They can't lose. But Cleveland's peaking right now, which is almost a problem. You don't want to be peaking now. Look at the Dodgers.
Starting point is 01:08:58 They picked three weeks early. Yeah. And right after I had Roberts on, we're talking about, do you think about the wins record? And they haven't really won anything since. They're real jinx. They're real jinx. I think baseball is you get hot for four weeks and that's who wins the World Series.
Starting point is 01:09:13 Yeah. Well, conversely, you can have a shitty weekend and they're done. Right. I don't like it. No. But for AL purposes, interesting. All right. Let's make a teaser bet.
Starting point is 01:09:24 Well. Our teaser bets are presented by Callaway this year. I don't know why. I haven't told them yet. Oh, are they really? Oh, good. No, no, I haven't even asked them yet. But just grabbing the sponsor of the hat.
Starting point is 01:09:36 Callaway, you're our teaser thing. I'm going to make my golf comeback this fall. Oh, man. I don't think we do a teaser. I don't like these n man. I don't think we do it, T. I don't like these nines. I don't like these nines. We could do a seven-pointer and pay extra VIG. Can I throw this one at you?
Starting point is 01:09:52 Pittsburgh, New England. Yeah, go ahead. Pats down to basically even. They just would have to win. Steelers would just have to win in Cleveland. Right. Chargers getting 13 and a half in Denver. You have to wait until Monday.
Starting point is 01:10:05 We'd be sweating it out at midnight on Monday night. Doesn't that sound delicious? That's not bad. It's pretty good, right? That's not bad. I like that one. Is there another one? You wouldn't take Seattle. Plus 13. Almost the same number. I don't like the 10-point
Starting point is 01:10:22 tease with two good teams. Half the time in those, oh, this is going to be a war, somebody beats the hell out of the other one. I feel like we whiffed on the three road favorites. The road favorites? You don't like Oakland plus 12 over Tennessee? Come on, we have to lose some money on Tennessee. We've been promising the listeners.
Starting point is 01:10:39 I'm scared of Oakland. I think Oakland's had too much smoke blowing up their butts. Wow. Makes me nervous Let's tell the listeners about the big division bet we made What did we do? Steelers, Seahawks, and Patriots Minus 115
Starting point is 01:10:55 Patriots were minus 3000 The Steelers were like Minus 240 And the Seahawks were like minus 360 We teamed them up together All three of them have to win minus 115. Me, you, and House. That was our big bet this year. So if you want to know what to stay away from.
Starting point is 01:11:11 Tate, who screws us? Pat, Steelers, or Seahawks? Probably the Seahawks, right? So the Cardinals would have to pass them? Yeah. That's not happening. I don't know if that's happening. The Seahawks, I think a lot of people are already back on them just because
Starting point is 01:11:25 they control the media narrative themselves. Oh, I love when Tate does this. I don't like that. I don't like when they tell me how good they are. Tate, he's really coming into his own. Good for you, Tate. Conspiracy Bill has really panned off on him. So we did that, and
Starting point is 01:11:41 then I also took those three and teamed them with the Texans, who were plus 120 to win the division? Yes. No, it's got to be more. Or plus 240 or whatever they were. No, plus 120 to win the division. Get out of here.
Starting point is 01:11:56 Whatever it was. And that was like almost three to one, putting all those teams together, right? Two and a half to one? Yeah. No, that was more. Yeah? That was more. That was almost three or four.
Starting point is 01:12:05 Oh. That makes me super happy. Yeah, the Texans are plus 180 to win the division. Oh, yeah. 180 was to win the division. Yeah. But we're not done. There's so many to make the playoffs, we'll not make the playoffs, we'll throw the Jets
Starting point is 01:12:18 in there. We're going to keep going at it. I had... We're going to talk this week for sure. No, I had... Look at you. You got six or seven pages printed out there. The Vikings were plus 150
Starting point is 01:12:31 to make the playoffs. I like that. I kind of like that one. The Bucs plus 300 to win the division. Yeah, you love the Bucs. See, it worries me that you don't like them. Hard knocks, hard on. No, it shouldn't worry you. The hard knocks should have scared you away because you watch Jameis make all these dumb
Starting point is 01:12:47 passes in practice and Dirk Cutter comes up to him and he's like, Jameis, stop. Don't do that. That's stupid. He's like, I'm sorry, coach. He's like, no. No sorry is necessary. Just don't do it. I know. I wanted to see him stealing crab legs, not getting on the third string, like patting him on the ass, telling him how great he is. Chargers
Starting point is 01:13:04 were plus 190 to make the playoffs and plus 380 to win the division. I wanted to make the playoffs to be higher, but I think people were betting on them. So almost 2-1 to make the playoffs? Yeah. But they're over-unders, like 7.5 or something? Yeah, they're over-unders 7.5.
Starting point is 01:13:17 Wow. And their make-the-playoff odds were barely better than the Broncos, who were over-unders 8.5. That's why I'm telling you, the sixth seed will be a 500 team. Can I bet that? I don't know if you can bet that. You'll have to ask your friends at Sportsbook. Dallas is nine and a half over under.
Starting point is 01:13:35 You like that? I think it's right there. I think 10. You think it comes down to last week? Last week at Philly? Yeah. I think Philly will be garbage by then. Which NFC East team are you the most afraid of?
Starting point is 01:13:48 The Giants. It just hurts my heart when they're good. Their D is going to be good. Defense is solid. I had Perkins on my fantasy team last year, and he would run into the line and fall down. And now everybody's like, sleeper! Did it get better from last year? I thought it sucked last year.
Starting point is 01:14:03 It should still be bad. But maybe Brandon Marshall makes a little bit of a tiny difference there, like better than Victor Cruz, who didn't play last year. Victor Cruz is out of the league already. No, where is he? He got cut by the Bears. Oh, the Bears cut him. He's out of the league.
Starting point is 01:14:18 Oh, my God. They got Wayne Gallman, too. The Giants, the Clemson running back that won the national championship. He's really good. He's like second string now. All right. Maybe he'll be better than Paul Perkins. Tate just puts us to shame.
Starting point is 01:14:30 Tomorrow we have the Korean kicker on the Chargers is coming on the BS podcast. Yeah, from South Korea. Is he really? He is now a hero. This has a possibility for Linsania 2.0. Donny Kwok, who's one of our best ringer people, he wrote about him today and made the salient point that if anyone has a fantasy draft and you have a Korean guy or girl in your draft, this guy's going to be like, if it's an auction, there could be an auction
Starting point is 01:14:59 for this. Because we saw this happen with Jeremy Lin, too. Third round pick. I'm so excited. I told David Chang that I had him come on. David Chang sent me questions. This is going to be the most fun subplot of the year. Yeah, it'll be good. And this guy,
Starting point is 01:15:11 he showed up to America in the sixth grade. Had no idea what football was. He's like, holding the football? What the hell is this? I don't know. This is easily the most fun subplot. He's in LA. I'm going to hire him for the ringer. A lot of weird things going on in California.
Starting point is 01:15:26 Blind snappers and South Korean kickers. Yeah, he's coming on, too. He is? Yeah, we're having him on this week, too. That was amazing. Did you see the clip? Crazy, yeah. Amazing.
Starting point is 01:15:36 He's going to want to play every week now, though. They got to bring him out. Yeah. I support it. Anything you want to plug? No, I should probably keep quiet now. I don't know. No, Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight, Steve Harvey.
Starting point is 01:15:48 Steve Hurricane Harvey. Steve Harvey. Bill SkarsgÄrd and Anderson East. Steve Harvey? Steve Harvey's on. Uh-oh. And like I said, the degenerate trifecta and I will go through the over-under win totals for every team on Wednesday, Twitter, at The Cousin Sal.
Starting point is 01:16:06 And don't forget the best bet video. Oh, yeah. My best bet video will come out either Thursday night or Friday. Yeah, Thursday night or Friday morning. Yes. The best bet. I'm really excited for this. Yeah, let's see.
Starting point is 01:16:16 What's the over-under for your record this year? Best bets for the season. 12-5 you take right now. Oh, God, yeah. I would say you go 12-5, you'd be like, sign me up. Definitely. Yeah, I'll go 10 and a half and over. Are you going to try to chase it if you don't start out well and do like two best bets in
Starting point is 01:16:34 a week? Yes. Chasing, yes. Don't do the Berman thing, though, where it's like the week 17, this is worth nine picks. Right, right, right, right. I'm going to stay away from a lot of the Berman things. Yeah.
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Starting point is 01:17:08 on WordPress.org since 2005. And now our listeners save 50% when you sign up at bluehost.com slash bluehost.com slash Bill Simmons. Thanks to Gillette. Sal shaves every day. I shave my neck every three days. But a Gillette razor blade edge is thinner than a single brain cell. shaves every day. Yeah. I shave my neck every three days.
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Starting point is 01:17:41 can get. Pricing applies to select products and is at the sole discretion of the retailer. Don't forget about the Ringer NFL show. Kevin Clark and Robert Mays every Tuesday, every Friday during the season and this week as well. Tate and Lombardi, GM Street, moving up to twice a week. Don't get in their way, man. Those guys are on fire. It's a good pod.
Starting point is 01:18:01 It's crisp, too. It's like a crisp 30 minutes. They just zoom through it. Lombardi talks about a couple mafia movies, something he ate, bangs out some football knowledge. That one's good. Against All Odds with Cousin Sal.
Starting point is 01:18:12 House of Carbs. We did a big thing on sports bars for House of Carbs, and I think we're running either next week or the week after. Oh, nice. Lee House and Craig Gaines, the ringer's copy chief, about what makes the perfect sports bar.
Starting point is 01:18:27 Really? One of the best 45 minutes in the history of podcast. I'm just throwing that out there. Uh, thanks to Tate. Thanks to everybody out there coming back tomorrow, the BS pod Wednesday and Friday this week. Until then.
Starting point is 01:18:50 I don't have a feeling for them. On the wayside, on the wayside, and I want to say, I don't have a feeling for them.

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