The Bill Simmons Podcast - Guess the Lines Week 1 With Cousin Sal | The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ep. 409)

Episode Date: September 4, 2018

In their 13th season of Guess the Lines, HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal continue the age-old tradition of guessing the NFL lines before each weekend's slate of games. You'll get the classics: MVP odds, first coach fired, marquee games, watchables, barely watchables, "poopfecta," and more. Buckle up. Here comes Week 1! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the Bill Simmons podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network, brought to you by our presenting sponsor, ZipRecruiter. Their technology and tools make hiring more efficient and more effective. It's the smartest way to hire. It is the Bill Belichick of hiring. He's gone 12 and four again this year, by the way. Their powerful technology scans thousands of resumes to find people with the right experience for your job, learns what kind of candidates you like,

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You name it. It's super easy. Download the SeatGeek app or go right to SeatGeek.com. Use promo code BS. $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase. By the way, if you're listening to this on a Tuesday before 5 p.m. East Coast time, we were doing a live Winspool draft on the Ringer Twitter feed, on the Facebook, and on YouTube.

You might remember I wrote about this on Grantland. In 2012, a wins pool that every team is assigned three picks. So if you have the first pick, you have the 20th and 26th. If you have the second pick, you have the 16th and 29th, whatever. It's an algorithm that actually makes it even for everybody. And we're doing with some of your ringer favorites, Kevin Clark, Robert Mays, Michael Peters. We have a whole slew of people that are going to be there. We're doing it live. I'm hosting, I'm picking a team and we're going to do the order and then we're going to do it. And the best part of these is two teams always get left out because you only pick 30 teams and two do not

make the cut. And I can't wait to see who doesn't make it this year. I'm guessing the Buffalo Bills will probably be the number one not make the cut team, but check it out. It's going to be really fun. We're going to make fun of each other. That is five o'clock East coast time on Tuesday. And if you missed it, you can go backwards and watch it belatedly on our ringer Twitter feed or on Facebook or on YouTube. Don't forget to check out TheRinger.com all week. Last round of NFL coverage before the big game on Thursday. Philly, Atlanta, kicking it off.

Robert Mays is doing his usual very, very elaborate four-part preview. And that is happening right now on TheRinger.com. He breaks it down into four groups of eight. So check that out. Coming up, the 13th season of Guess the Lines with our old friend, the cousin, Cousin Sal. But first, Pearl Jam. All right, before we get to the cuz, wanted to remind everyone,

the new Rewatchables podcast went up on Labor Day, taken with me and Shea Serrano. Sal, this movie doesn't mean that much to you because you don't have any daughters. You don't know what it would be like to be scared that your daughter got kidnapped. Just sons. You'd probably, I don't know, you'd make a deal with the negotiators maybe. You could cut down to two sons, right? You know, I'm thinking of getting unsnipped and having daughters just so I could be a

part of all the fun with the Watchables. You could have ended the take of rewatchables. Well, this is it. You're on the phone this year. You're not in person. You are co-hosting the new FS1 show that starts next week. Lock it in. What is the date?

It's September 10th, right? It's Monday. It's after the first Sunday games. And yeah, they already have odds on who will be kicked off first. Me, Rachel Bonetta, Clay Travis, or Todd Furman. So I'm the favorite. Wow, you're 2-1. Well, I'm so controversial.

You know how that is. Rachel Bonetta, plus 250. Clay Travis, plus 275. Todd Furman, plus 275. I think those Clay Travis odds are juicy. Who knows what that dude will say? He could knock himself off any show. Hey, before we get to the week one lines, we had a big trade this weekend.

You and I did the over-unders for AFC and NFC last week. And both of us were having trouble finding the prototypical sleeper team. And I promised the audience on my pod and then on yours, because we did part one, part two on our pods. I promised the audience by Tuesday, I would have a sleeper. I would have the team that you don't really expect. And I think I have one for each conference now. Where do you stand on this whole sleeper thing? How are you looking? Don't say the Bears. Are you going to say the Bears because of this trade?

I'm thinking about it. I'm thinking about it. Oh, come on. I'm thinking about it. Did they change quarterbacks? It's a really easy schedule. And by the way, the quarterback, listen, I'm not that excited about Trubisky. I'm really not. They are going to do the RPO with him, which has saved that excited about Trubisky. I'm really not.

They are going to do the RPO with him, which has saved and salvaged a lot of careers. Their schedule is just, I just went through it. I was like, wow, this is just cream puff after cream puff. They play most of the bad teams in the league. And I think their defense is going to be awesome. And they're a cold weather team. And I'm starting to look at them.

But the other one is, I'm looking at Cincinnati too. Yeah, there you go. That's more like it. We already have money in them to win the AFC North. And I think those are the two teams that I'm going to rally behind. Who do you have? You have Cincinnati and who? Cincinnati we have, plus 325 to make the playoffs,

which I don't remember them being that high. Certainly not in the Marvin Lewis era, right? Yeah. And, you know, the NFC is tougher because, you know, you could say the Bears. I like the Redskins a little bit, but to get a wild card spot there, you're going to have to have 10 or maybe 11 wins, right? So that's a further jump. A nine-win Bengals team could probably get the sixth seed for the AFC.

Yeah. You know, I looked, I really wanted to get to five teams that hadn't made the playoffs last year because it's always like five or six. Right. And I could, I could really only get to three. I had the, I had the Bengals. I had the Bears, and then who's the third one? The Chargers? Yeah, the Chargers. And in the NFC, I just had a lot of trouble bumping teams because you go through and it's Phillies loaded. They have one of the best rosters in the league. You can talk Super Bowl hangover or whatever, but they're freaking loaded. And then you have Minnesota and they're loaded too. And you have new Orleans, which didn't lose a lot. And it would be, it's a hard press to imagine them not making it. And then I think the Rams are going to be the best team in football.

So those are four right there. And then you and I both like Carolina, that's five. So all of a sudden there's only six spots. I don't know what to do. I like the Falcons too, to maybe make a jump here. But, but the other thing to contend with is you have the Packers back. They didn't make it last year and they're going to definitely contend with

Rodgers this year. So already that's a slot down in the NFC. Yeah, it does seem like the NFC has more good teams. I think we can safely say that. I think the AFC, unless Houston or Jacksonville, who I liked

a lot more last week until I really was looking at their skill guys the last few days. I just couldn't get excited about them moving the ball. You don't like it? No? I don't know what they're doing

in 39. You don't like Bortles to Keelan Cole or D.D. Westbrook? You don't like any of that? I was listening to our D'Andrecy football podcast last week and Heifetz was raving

about Keelan Cole. Last four weeks, 475 yards and I started talking myself into Keelan Cole and then I'm thinking like, oh my God, what am I doing?

These Jags aren't going to make the playoffs with these receivers. So I think I'm out. It feels like 9-7 for them and a lot of tough losses where they can't move the ball that much. It just seems like it would be an easy team to stop. I'm with you. I mean, I have trouble with them. We'll get to it already. They're at the Giants and that should be in.

We should count that as a win because they're just more talented on defense and they should run that game. But I'm not close to taking it. So I don't know. I don't know if I would go with that. But you know what? This is our 13th year. We can say whatever we want. I know. 13 years. We have a

bar mitzvah. Oh yeah, you're right. Maybe next week we'll have a bar mitzvah for Guest Alliance. Oh, that's great. We tell this story every year, but this started with you and your friend Darren, who is now the parlay kid and part of the degenerate trifecta on Against All Odds. But you would call him and guess the lines.

And then you and I started doing it when I got the job at Jimmy Kimmel's new show. And we would be in our office guessing the lines every week. Then I left the show and you started calling me on Sunday nights. And my wife would say, all of a sudden I'd be gone for 40 minutes playing guess the lines with you. And she'd be like, what just happened? I thought we were watching the Sopranos. I'm like, hold on, hold on. I got three more lines to guess. And then, and then finally this became a podcast in 07. Yeah. It's, we used to,

and now it's legalized and like we used to hide in closets to do this. And now we can, we can show our faces. It's a great, it's a great time we survived we survived jeff fisher era we survived the flake gate wow we survived goodell the goodell outlast uh i guess the lines did you see that should be a prop somewhere peter k moved this column to embassy sports and yeah had this he did a twitter poll last week about goodell with his with his was shocked to find out Goodell had a 21% approval rating or something. Yeah, right. I'm pretty sure that's not the greatest sample size is a Twitter audience on Roger Goodell, but it was still kind of alarmingly bad how bad the numbers were. And I'd love to know.

It's too bad we don't have the same polling we have for like Trump and stuff like that. Well, it's similar to Trump, I think, because it's like it doesn't really matter what the public says. It's the Republicans. You know, the Congress has to turn on Trump. The owners have to turn on Goodell. And it doesn't seem like either is happening, right? Yeah. This would have been so much easier if they just let him buy the bills, Trump.

Yeah, I know. They could have just tortured each other instead of the entire country. I think even season tickets would have done it. Here's who I have for playoff teams. This is not final. I'm going to post on Instagram on Thursday morning my 12 playoff teams.

I know everyone is waiting with bated breath because, you know, God forbid you can wait 36 more hours for my picks. Here's who I have. I have division champs, New England, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City. I have wild cards, Pittsburgh, and the Chargers. NFC, I have division champs, Philly. Wait for it, Wait for it.

Chicago, Carolina, and the Rams going 14-2. And New Orleans and Minnesota is the wild cards. So there you go, Sal. That's good. I won't break it down like that. I have the Vikings and Steelers in the Super Bowl this year, and you can get 35-1 on that right now on Bovada. I like that.

I would take them plus 750. I'd take Atlanta 12-1 to win the NFC. I would take Casey at 14-1 and Pitt at 5-1 to win the AFC. That's it. I have Rams-Chiefs right now as my tentative Super Bowl. Ooh, that's fun too. Yeah. Andy.

That'd be a lot of fun. Would that be the least amount of experience for quarterback duo? I'm in on Mahomes. I'm all in. I don't know why I'm so confident in Mahomes. It basically comes down to one week 17 start and a couple good preseason throws, but I'm like all the way in. I believe in the guy.

I like the Chiefs. I like the fact that they actually tried to get younger. I like Eric Berry coming back. I like their skill, guys. And I think Mahomes is going to be, weirdly, an upgrade over Alex Smith, who I think is pretty good. I just like the vibe on that team. And I think too many people are on the Chargers bandwagon.

Let's talk about what happened on Saturday. What happened on Saturday? Big Khalil Mack trade. Oh, yeah. Unexpected. Right. The Raiders, who have now justified it after the fact, as we didn't really want to have two super expensive guys on our team.

We didn't want a paid car. And Khalil Mack, like $48 million for the two of them, basically, a year. That all sounds great. But it led to them trading Khalil Mack, like $48 million for the two of them, basically a year. That all sounds great. But it led to them trading Khalil Mack to the Bears. And they got two first-rounders back, but then threw in their second-rounder a year from now, which could be like the 35th pick in the draft. Yeah, that got hidden in there somewhere.

Yeah, so they get the 2020 Bears first-rounder. But let's say that the Bears are the ninth best team in the league. That's the 23rd or 24th pick. And then they would give up. So they basically move up 11 spots. Congratulations. I hated the trade. I just feel like there's eight or nine guys you don't trade, period, under any circumstances.

He was one of them. And what's kind of hidden under this is they basically chose David Carr. I'm sorry, Derek Carr. There it is. I'm off the board, but I got the Carr brothers mixed up. Over on there was 19 and a half minutes. Yeah, I did it. Congratulations to me.

They picked Derek Carr over Khalil Mack. Is Derek Carr like one of the best, I don't know, 12 quarterbacks in the league? Yeah. Would you put him in your top 12? No, not right now. I think Derek Carr's even bummed out that they took Derek Carr over.

You look at all these Twitter reactions, you look at just the general feel. I don't know if this was Gruden's second or third year and he did this. It might be something different, but I kind of feel like he's lost the team already. The tweets after the trade, just the whole attitude. His own partner, Sean McDonough, went on record saying, I don't know what he's doing.

I don't know if he knows what he's doing. They cut Martavis Bryant. They gave up a third rounder to Pittsburgh for Martavis Bryant. He's cut. It's just like Wild West football. I don't know if he makes it. Does he make it to Vegas? It's like swingers.

This is more exciting to see if Gruden actually makes it to Vegas than Favreau and Vaughn. I think he makes it to Vegas, but I think it turns out about as well as it did for Fredo. That's nice. And then he's quickly out living in Lake Tahoe somewhere. We talked about it last week.

I think I even had a quote like, I'm going all in on like nine things this season. One of them is John Gruden's going to be a complete disaster. I had no idea he was going to trade Khalil Mack. I think it's actually worse that they're justifying it as we can't afford to $25 million players because Derek Carr is not a $25 million player. And you just picked somebody who's not

one of the, I would say 10 best quarterbacks in the league over one of the only three defensive players that matters. And somebody who's 27 who, I don't know, I was looking at Ray Lewis's stats. And, you know, Ray Lewis won a Super Bowl with the Ravens in 2000, which Khalil Mack has not done. But Ray Lewis was 27 in, I think, the 2002 season, which is Khalil Mack's age right now. Imagine the Ravens trading Ray Lewis in 2002,

who then goes to play another 12 years, basically, wins another Super Bowl in 13, teaches us about deer antler spray, was the best defensive player in the league, or at least in the top three for at least six, seven years there. And it's just in retrospect, you'd be like, oh my God, I can't believe they traded Ray Lewis. And I think that's what we're going to say about this Khalil Mack trade. I think it's a complete catastrophe. And you agree. Yeah, definitely. He's going to play with a chip on his shoulder, but you're forgetting the big story here.

But really, the big story of Saturday is that, and we're not going to get a lot of chances to do this, so let's congratulate ourselves on winning a bet, basically. As soon as it came out, we were surprised to see that Bovada and all of these sportsbooks, they had it on the board. The under for Raiders wins, which we liked anyway, was 8 and minus 130. And then we jumped on it, and then like three hours later,

it was 7.5 and minus 150 was the under. So congratulations to us. We really did it. Well, we did that, it was seven and a half and minus 150 was the under. So congratulations to us. We really did it. Well, we did that. And then we had the, we did a, it's so funny. On the pod last week, I was yelling at you that you were going to talk me into a parlay, a make the playoffs parlay with three teams. And I was going to look at it and go, oh my God.

Yeah, you're right. There's no way this loses. And then we're going to do it. I didn't even have to offer it up. And I was like, F you. We're not doing that. You can go to hell. You're not talking me into that. And then I was the one that sent it to you. Yep, that's right.

I know you're psyched here already. Oh, we're not done with that, by the way. There's going to be a lot more not make the playoff parlays for us. So we did we did the Rams minus 325 to make the playoff parlays for us. So we did we did the Rams minus 325 to make the playoffs.

The Patriots minus 1100 to make the playoffs. So basically if Brady gets hurt, we're screwed. I don't know. And then the Raiders not to make the playoffs which was minus 200 on Saturday right after this Khalil Mack trade.

If the Raiders make the playoffs, what's the most disgusting thing I could eat on the podcast and videotape it? What is it? I'm trying to think. What is it, Kyle? Kyle, what's the most disgusting thing I could eat? Probably cousin Kyle Sandal. Yeah.

Nephew Kyle Sandal. I was going to say like Dipspit, but yeah, I think probably Sandler. Dipspit's not a food though. Yeah, it could be. You know what? I've always swore that I would never eat testicles. What? The brains.

You know, like those people, cow testicles are a delicacy. I got a meat guy. I'll eat testicles on a podcast. And they can be human testicles, cow testicles. I'll eat some pair of testicles on a podcast and they can be human testicles, cow testicles. I'll eat. So I'll eat some pair of testicles on this podcast. If the Raiders make the playoffs,

it will never happen. You will eat Roger Goodell's testicles. If the Raiders make the playoffs, I could probably only one. They're so huge. It probably looks like two meals. So we did. All right.

This is good. The other bets we did. Did we jump on the Bears? No, we stayed away from the Bears over. I'm looking at it. We did Division champ bets Tennessee plus 325 KC plus 265

Carolina plus 275 Bears plus 800, Bengals plus 750. Those are division bets. And just so for people listening at home, Sal and I do value plays and we hope that we can go two for five, three for five, four for five.

We don't think we're going to go five for five on those. One for five. I shoot for one for five. You have higher aspirations. You shoot for O for minus one for six. Right. But if we hit Tennessee plus 325, KC plus 265, Carolina plus 275, even if we hit one of those, we cover our bet.

And if we hit two, great. And we think we can hit two of those. I am a little worried. The Thomas Davis missing the first four games has me worried. Now Khalil's out at their left tackle, who they claim Nicker in place. There are little tiny signs with Carolina that these first four games might be tough, but I believe in Kim. They're going to have to win that division right at the tail end.

There aren't two of their last three against New Orleans or something. Yeah, New Orleans week 15 and week 17. Yeah, they need to hang around. They need to be eight and five going in the last three against New Orleans or something. Yeah, New Orleans like week 15 and week 17. Yeah, they need to hang around. They need to be 8-5 going on the last three weeks. And Cam Newton, once again, nobody believes in you. Nope. Nobody believes in you, Cam. 40-1 to win the MVP. Jimmy G

had better odds than you. Pat Mahomes had better odds than you. Nobody believes in you, Cam. Put that big fat chip on your shoulder. You like him to win MVP. He's over under for touchdown passes. What do you think it is? Oh, geez.

Maybe 28? 21 and a half. Oh, wow. We got to jump on that. I also like, I'm just going to be throwing props at you for this next hour. McCaffrey over eight rushing receiving return touchdowns. Minus 125. I love that one too.

So we have our draft tonight. Oh, yeah. Actually, hold on. Let's take a break and we'll come back on this. Let's talk about Full Sail University. They combine hands-on learning, immersive projects, and faculty with real-world experience to prepare students for life in the media industry for the Dan Patrick School of Sportscast. And they brought some of sports media's best to be part of the program, including my good friend, Gus Ramsey, who's

heading up the program, as well as sportscasting pros like Sage Steele, Jay Harris, Kevin Ngandem, and many more. I am thrilled to be part of the advisory board. I actually went there two weeks ago, spoke to a couple of classes, checked out the campus. It was way more elaborate and awesome than I expected, actually. The virtual reality side of it was incredible. Students will learn sports casting there inside and out on camera, behind the camera, podcasting, radio, interviewing, everything in between. At Full Sail University's Dan Patrick School of Sportscasting, you can earn a bachelor's degree in about half the time, as short as 20 months, and you can choose to earn your degree online or on Full Sail's campus in Orlando, Florida, which is very close to the WWE Performance Center. And NXT is on the Full Sail campus. My son and I went,

and he's been doing NXT entrances ever since to learn more about Full Sail Universities, Dan Patrick School of Sportscasting. Go to fullsail.edu slash Bill Simmons. That's my name. All right, we're back. So we have a draft tonight. Somebody's getting kicked out. Don't know who it is.

I'm definitely one of the favorites. I have not been kicked out of this league yet. Dan Meshack's picking. I would say Brad is 2-1 and you're 7-2 and then some people that nobody knows are right in the middle there too. Craig Powell's got to be in the mix. He's the only one who hasn't been kicked out.

So it feels like every year there's one or two guys who just go for $20 too high and it's ridiculous. I would say Christian McCaffrey is the odds on favorite tonight to go for like 57 bucks or something. And we're all going to look at each other to stupefied like what Christian McCaffrey,

why are you guys one up each other for this? He's getting so much buzz with how many touches he gets, how good he looks. He's a, he's going to have the ball all the time. I, I feel the overreaction coming. Well, I mean, how the hell do I do?

I wanted to draft Christian McCaffrey. Of course you did. Now I'm hogtied. I don't know how to react to this. I'm like, no, no, he stinks. He's not going to put anything up. Anything more than an $11 bid is silly. I'm going to stick with that.

I'll give you one just because I like you and it's our bar mitzvah together. Yeah. You should check out Jarek McKinnon on the Niners. I think he's going to be huge here. Poor Jarek. But he went early second round in a lot of snake drafts that went last week and before that.

By the way, I feel bad for him. I feel bad that he's hurt. But it did make my decision-making process for the playoff teams in the NFC a little bit easier because I was leaning against them anyway. But their running backs are just bad. Like, they're already trying to talk themselves into Alfred Morris. You had Alfred Morris for a couple years. How'd that go for you?

No, he was serviceable. Serviceable. He's fine. Change of pace. You throw him in there. But, you know No, he was serviceable. Serviceable. He's fine. Change of pace. You throw him in there. But, you know, he's not going to. Although, like, Matthew Berry and them, they like him better than Breda to have a heavy load. Anything more than 15 carries, I guess he's done well as yards per carry or higher than if he's just a spot running back.

But I think you're going to have trouble with this Jimmy G thing anyway. Like, it's fun to love him like you do, but at some point if the Niners got as good as everyone hopes they do, you're going to get jealous. It's going to be bad for you as a Patriots fan. I will always root for Jimmy G. I just don't think this is going to be the year. I think this will be the set.

I think next year will be the year for them. I don't think it's this year. Yeah. I do. I do like the division there, though. I will say that. And it does seem like. In terms of being able to rack up wins?

It's just, you know, they're, they're. It's NFC West and AFC West play each other. So they have the Raiders and and they have the Broncos. Last week I was talking about how they were sleepery, and Dovin did more research. I don't think they're sleepery. It's not happening. Can I give you a prop that I am absolutely madly in love with

that you're not going to want anything to do with, but that there's no way it's going to lose. We're talking about divisions. The lowest division leader win total. Win total for the division leader, over 8.5. So there will be no division leader with 8 and 8 or worse. And it's minus 250. It's hefty. It's a hefty vig

for sure. But which division are you worried about if you have the over? I feel like you single-handedly have proven over the years, you have the ability to force something improbable to happen. And in this case, it's an eight and eight division champ. And if you bet this, I feel like it will happen. Not only that, people will hear this, this will sway the line to minus 400, and I'll jump on it then, and then the Eagles will go 8-8 to win the NFC East, right?

Which is the division? Is it the NFC East? Is it... No. I would say AFC North or AFC South. AFC North. Which is, you know, if all those teams were pretty good, not great, they all just split all their games with each other. And just it was like three teams on 8-8 and one went 7-9.

I can see it. AFC South would be, I think, the runaway pick for that though, right? I'm convincing you on this. I think we could hedge too. I haven't figured out how, but I think there would be a way to hedge. So we bet minus 250. And as long as every division champ is nine and seven or higher, we win.

That's right, my friend. What if they go, what if they go eight, seven and one? No, it's eight and a half. Eight and a half wins.

I know that that would be scary. So eight, seven and so eight, seven and one has happened a couple of times. Yeah. Seven, eight and one has happened too. I. Yeah, 7-8-1 has happened, too. I think, didn't Carolina win at 7-8-1? Could we parlay it with something else or no? Yeah, we'll do whatever we want.

13 years. It's our bar mitzvah. We should have Josh Rosen preside over our bar mitzvah. Did you have a bar mitzvah? You didn't. Did you? No, I didn't. I didn't do anything.

My father's Italian Catholic. My mother's Jewish. And I, yeah, they just left me out. They said, do whatever you want. That was it. So what's the track record when the Italians marry Jewish people? How does that work out usually? I mean,

in your case, badly. In your case, badly, but that's a unique combination for a marriage. Yeah. I think OJ was Jewish

and Nicole was Italian. I don't know. I don't know. I'll have to look back at that. I'm not sure. What other season props do you have? I have a bunch. I mean, if we go game by game, I'll be able to throw them back. What other season props do you have?

I have a bunch. I mean, if we go game by game, I'll be able to throw them back. What do you think of this? Team with most wins, 13.5. The under is minus 130. That seems high for most wins, but most losses I could see over 13.5, and that's minus 200. I've checked out the standings for the last couple years.

It is surprising how many 13-3, 14 and two type seasons there are. That it doesn't feel, you always feel like it's going to be around 10 and six, 11 and five, maybe 12 and four. But I think the Rams are going to be the team this year. Do you think they can get 14? I think they can get to 14. You know,

it's funny. We did a little ringer fantasy draft the other day. And like Goff was the 19th fantasy pick, right? Or QB picked. He wasn't anybody anyone would start. He went later. And it's just like nobody takes Goff seriously. And then all the Rams skill position guys go, you know, Gurley went first.

But then those three receivers went pretty early. And it's just, I don't understand how the Rams aren't going to score a lot of points combined with this crazy defense they have. It feels like they're set up for a lot of like 40 to 10 type games. And we saw from McVay last year, like he puts the gas, he presses the gas pedal. He's going. And Aaron Donald, that's the nail in the coffin, possibly for the rest of the NFC.

Him signing with the, you know, you have Wade Phillips backing up. That's going to be the best defense. The offense, yeah, you're right. There's not going to be a lot asked of the offense. Put up 40 points anyway by accident. You know, and this is the case for the Bears too. If you can get by with decent or better at quarterback on the rookie scale, I'm not the first person to make this point,

but I do think it's just incredibly important. If you're not paying a freaking boatload for your QB and you can put that money elsewhere, it's the biggest advantage you have right now. The Rams still have Goff on that rookie contract. Philly still has Wentz. Chicago has Trubisky, you know, and I think those are three massive advantages for them versus, you know, paying Cam Newton or Matt Ryan or freaking Joe Flacco. So anyway, I, I, I just

think the Rams have the most talent in the, uh, in the league and I like their coach the most. I actually think, you know, removing Belichick, I would say who would be your top three coaches? I would say McVay, Peterson. Who's the third? Mike Zimmer? I mean, you don't want to say Andy Reid. You want to throw him in there?

I mean, I was looking at coach of the year odds. And who do you like? You didn't like Anthony Lynn. I did. But if he wins. I didn't like him last year. If he steals that division from the Chiefs, not bad, right? They just seemed sloppy last year.

I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt going from year one to year two. But, man, that team did not seem well coached last year, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt going from year one to year two, but man, that team did not seem well coached last year in my opinion. I think he's 21-1 and Shanahan was 16-1. Is Hugh Jackson the same as betting

that Mars will invade Earth? Well, here's what I would do. Lynn is 16-1 and Shanahan is 16-1. For first coach fired, let's really do this because I think it's either Hugh or Dirk Cutter. And one's plus 350 and the other's plus 450. And I'd be very, very surprised if it was anyone other than those two, right?

It's got to be one of those two. I think Jason Garrett's in the mix. And I've really, really enjoyed the last two weeks as people keep pushing the, you know who's not going to be bad? The Cowboys. No, right. It actually is setting it up for the Garrett firing because it's not like there are low expectations.

People are actually starting to wonder if, oh, well, you know, Philly started out really weird for them this year, Super Bowl hangover. Maybe Dallas comes in. Yeah. I'm not saying that. I wonder if he gets yet another pass for another year because this team is banged up on the offensive line and they don't have a lot of help, many threats in the wide receiver position.

But that would be a great extra FU to me if we bet Hugh and Cutter for first coach fired and it's actually Jason Garrett after all this time. Hugh arguably should have been fired at some point during the hard knock season. Yeah, right. But, by the way, they have the insider trading subplot for... I love it. Only the Browns. It could only happen to the Browns.

Michael Kendricks was gone. Insider trading. So, all right, dial schedule quickly. At Carolina, home for the Giants on Sunday night NBC. I can't remember, when you play the Giants, they win in Dallas and then you win in New York, or how does that work? We've done better lately.

We've won, I think, our last two home games against them. At Seattle, week three. There's a slight tiny chance you're 0-2 going in that game. Yeah. At Seattle, Detroit, at Houston, Jacksonville is a tough stretch after our first two. And then you have at Washington, week seven. Bye week. Home, Tennessee, and then a gauntlet of at Philly, at Atlanta, week 10, week 11,

followed by the Thanksgiving game home against the Skins. Redskins, yeah, five primetime games. They'll lose three of those. Yeah, I don't think. Well, let me walk you through this scenario. Can I walk you through this scenario? You're 0-2. You blow the Seattle game.

You're 0-3. And then home Detroit week four, fire Garrett signs, boo, all that stuff, and the writing's on the wall. I could see it is my point. I could see it too, but here's the thing with the Cowboys, and I know I'm going to give everyone a little bit of an inside thing here because I'm not going to say I've partied with the Cowboys, but I traveled with them for a day or two.

They throw them back from top to bottom in the organization, and I think there's a lot of stories that are being held under wraps. And I wonder if Jason Garrett bore witness to something horrible, and that's why they're keeping him around. Isn't that an unbelievable theory? There you go. He has his job. What else could you go. He has his job. What else could it be?

He has his job for life. That's it. He's already plus five and a half years. Oh, man. If my buddy Jaybug's listening, I hope he's enjoying this whole thing. Because he was once in a had a job for life scenario that we still joke about. 20 plus years later. Oh, really?

Yeah. Hey. He should coach the Cowboys. I wouldn't mind. He was the one with, he was the one who saw something he shouldn't have seen. Hey, first coach fired.

Is there any other sleepers? Let me see. I don't know. I was so zoned in on those two. I like when people get mad that we do the first coach. You're talking about a guy getting fired. Yeah. It's going to happen, right?

Anyway. Coaches get fired. It happens. And it's okay to talk about it. Hey, let's take another break. And then we can do, let's just go into the week one lines. And then we can hit a couple of the other props.

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Fanduel.com slash BS. You and I are going to go in there. We're doing it. It's free. New users get a $20 bonus when they make their first deposit on FanDuel but you and I are doing this we are diving in to the Survivor Contest

come beat me and you who do you think does better you or me who lasts longer you like this stuff more although it shouldn't be too much different from just regular fantasy I think I would need a few weeks to catch up. No, this is,

all you have to do is pick one team. Yeah, no, I understand. I understand. Is it for the year or just every week? Every week, one team. It's a Survivor contest. Yeah. Speaking of Survivor, check it out. Fanduo.com slash BS. Speaking of Survivor, I've been watching

Naked and Afraid on the Discovery Channel. You familiar with this show? Yeah, I have seen it a couple of times. It doesn't seem, seems to be pointless, but I love it. It's flat out incredible. They just drop these people

in the middle of nowhere with all of these horrible things that could happen to them. And then they film them. And I'm just kind of speechless. I don't know why, I don't know how somebody hasn't died yet. Anyway, I recommend it as a Hulu watch.

Yeah, what's the contract like for these producers and cameramen and audio guys? Like, hey, if this guy's dying, if he's going into cardiac arrest or seems like he's suffering a heat stroke, you back the F off. Right.

You don't touch him. You don't give him, don't even give him one Cheeto. I don't understand because Survivor, you're playing for a million dollars. Right. Much cushier conditions. Every three days, Jeff Probst is there with like prime rib. And in this show, people are like, I saw this guy hang an alligator. He created this noose and he hung an alligator

and then they ate the alligator. And he's probably making like a per diem. I don't understand this show or how it's on television. We're going to be saying the same thing about you when you're eating ox testicles after the Raiders make the playoffs. I'm going to eat Roger Goodell's testicles if the Raiders make the playoffs.

You heard it here. All right. Thursday night. It's a good one. Good start. You heard it here. All right. Thursday night. It's a good one. Good start. Philly at home playing the Atlanta Falcons. They're getting the rings.

You might remember last year first down and goal for the Falcons in Philly and they got Sarkeesianed. They blew it. Philly ends up winning the Super

Bowl. Now they're back. They will definitely be running that series. What do you have? I said minus four. What did you have? I said five and a half. Well, the actual line is minus two, and this is one

of the two fishiest lines, in my opinion, of the week. Minus two! Super Bowl champs at home. I gotta say, I'm stunned. I'm stunned. Yeah. So, does Vegas not like the Eagles? What's going on here? Well, how much

could you drop it? It didn't drop that much. I mean, it was only like three when Carson Wentz was supposed to be quarterback. It dropped to two. I don't think it should have dropped at all. Nick Foles is the hottest quarterback in football right now, isn't he? If you throw out the preseason and just go by week 18 on, why should that be a difference? A, and B, aside from the Patriots blowing it last year,

the home team dominates these Thursday night games, openers. I don't know if Nick Foles is technically still hot. That was like eight months ago. You think so? Yeah, at some point you cool off a little bit. All right, it's still low. It's still low. But they're begging you to take the Eagles.

Do you see like a 22-21 final? I'm stunned. I'm surprised. I'm hurt. I don't like being three and a half points off with my first pick. The best thing that could happen here is

the Eagles find out that they're not even three-point favorites. First of all, somebody would have to explain how lines work. Second of all, somebody would have to explain how insulting this is. They are banged up. And maybe people feel like there's going to be some sort of false hangover.

I guess I just don't love this Atlanta team, especially outdoors, not in a dome, not on track. I don't get it. I'm confused. I like them. In fact, I like Ryan over 25.5 touchdown passes. I like him 22-1 to win MVP, but I'm just looking at season wins.

Atlanta's supposed to have 9 and a half. Philly is supposed to have 10 and a half. That's a win more plus their home, and they don't even get the obligatory minus 3. Very strange. Here's the other thing. If Philly blew this

game, and that's one of their eight home games, this year they have seven road games plus the London game. They still have at-Rams. I mean, if they blew this, there is a roadmap for them not to go 10-6. Man, they have some easy games, though. At-Tampa, home for Indy. I think three of their last four are on the road. I know it's Dallas, the Rams, and the Skins are road games in December.

Bizarre. I'm speechless. Would not have guessed that. I thought five and a half was going to be a tiny bit high, but it seemed like it was going to be in the Vegas zone. So this is a stay away, right? I think it's a stay away. I don't know.

I'm going to be Googling nobody believes in us for the next two days to see if the Eagles found out they've been disrespected like this. We won the Super Bowl. They still don't believe in us. Let's see if that gets going. Sunday marquee game. There's some good ones this week. I actually was excited about the schedule.

Sunday marquee, Minnesota at home for Jimmy G in the San Francisco 49ers. I'm excited for this one because it's Jimmy G's first full season. Kirk Cousins, how does that go? Vikings marquee team, nice outdoor arena. I think we're going to learn a lot about both teams this game. I think the Vikings, depending on where this line is, is very, very teasable. And I'm going to say Vikings minus seven. I said minus six and it's minus six and a half. So we both get it. We tie that one. And it is a very teasable line, as you said. Can we just say right now we're teasing them with somebody? Yes. Let's say that now. All right.

I'm going to say something else. Yeah. I did... I like these younger quarterbacks over interceptions. So Garoppolo's over 12 and a half. I think like Darnold's 13 and a half or something. And Mahomes is 13 and a half. Two of those three teams can make the playoffs, but those guys will still have like 15

16 interceptions right Aren't they good for one a game Just as part of the learning curve Didn't Jimmy have one a game During his Niners run last year I think he did Wait a second What were Darnold's interceptions

Let me see Mahomes was 13.5 Darnold's interceptions? Let me see. Mahomes was 13 and a half. Darnold is 13 and a half. God, that's ludicrous. Wasn't the rap on him that he throws the ball for grabs too much? That was his USC rap. All right. He threw one up in the preseason.

Now, the problem with that is if he throws six in two weeks, you're not going to see him for a while. So you might not win that bet. Oh, true. He could get benched. Didn't think of that. Yeah, probably a statement. So we like the Vikings in a tease. Vikings six and a half. All right, the Poopfecta. God, I love

the Poopfecta. I really missed it. Are we there already? That was it? Yeah, we're there. We did Thursday night. We did Sunday marquee. All right. I have four games for the poopfecta, a whopping four, usually not that many to start the year. These are four games to refresh your memory.

By the way, we didn't say the premise of guess the lines. We, we could try to guess the line and whoever's closer wins and we keep score. And I think I've beaten you probably nine of the 13 years. Would you say maybe 10? I would say that's accurate. Yeah.

How do you feel? We never play for anything. The first year was supposed to be, I think we were sponsored by Subway and you were going to hit me with a Subway. You were going to beat me with a Subway sandwich. And then you, you won and you got scared because you thought I'd retaliate.

I thought you might retaliate. What are you talking about? If I beat you with a Subway sub, I would take it easy because I'm a nice guy. If it was reversed, you would get the biggest, most disgusting meatball sub and beat the hell out of me for like 10 minutes. I'd be covered in tomato and cheese. I'm not getting into any war with you where you get to beat me up somehow. I'm just saying you've come a long way.

Now you're devouring Commissioner Testicle. So you need to reevaluate this game. The Poopfecta, these are the worst games of the week. These are the games that even on League Pass, if you have a setup with four TVs at home, these games are not cracking the four. You might only know they're happening every once in a while. If something crazy happens to one of them, it gets on the red zone. The first one, Titans at Miami. Miami looks like they're just going to be awful. I haven't read

anything encouraging about Miami this year. I'm not excited about them at all. And I like the Titans and I think they're a potential division champ. I have the Titans minus three in Miami. What do you have? I couldn't wrap my head around this one. I made it a pick. I can't stand Miami this year. I like them in years past.

This is probably the year they do well. I had a pick. It's Titans minus one and a half, so we split that, right? You said three. I said pick. It's right in the middle there. Why would the Titans lose that game?

If they can't win that game, then... I don't know. Warm weather to warm weather. I did see a prop that I like. I think Deion Lewis and any time a Patriot goes somewhere else, I like him under five and a half, rushing, receiving, return touchdowns.

Oh, you're shorting Deion Lewis. That hurts my feelings. He's a Super Bowl champion. It'll make you feel better. Like, oh yeah, he played for a real team and did well. This is why he can't

make it work in Tennessee. I don't like that we've only done three games so far and I want to bet on all three. I think I might have a gaming problem. Here's one I don't want to bet on. Baltimore is at home to play the Buffalo Bills. Now, this is a rare...

Not only do you want to bet on this one, but you didn't even list it in our games. You skipped it altogether. No, I didn't even want to talk about it or mention it. The only way this game is interesting is if something horrible happens. Like we have another Nathan Peterman five interception thing or who knows. But I think they jacked it up.

For some reason, people like the Ravens a little bit this year, which I don't totally understand. But I have Ravens seven and a half. What do you have? I had Ravens six and a half and the line is seven. So we tie that one as well. We have a lot of ties. Jesus.

This has, you know, if you're doing the knockout pool, the ball, the ballsy one would be to use the Ravens for week one. We always talk about this week. One is the week when basically week one and week two, or when you have the most value,

if you want to go all in on this team's going to be horrific or this team's going to be better than people think, whatever, it's best to go all in on this stuff. I don't like the Ravens, so I wouldn't personally do this, but if you like the Ravens, you don't like the bills. This is actually a good knockout pool pick. I think these teams probably over the last decade, there are two of the three teams that have screwed me. I can't win this game for whoever I take it.

I might as well take my paycheck and put it in a paper shredder. You have four paychecks. You can do that. What's that? You have like four paychecks now. You can do that. You just do one of the paychecks. But the bills, it seems like they've given up. It seems like they gave up this time last year. They made a bunch of trades that led you to believe they were rebuilding. $53 million plus in dead money. They already got beat by the Browns with the Corey Coleman deal.

They already lost a seventh rounder. They had to cut Corey Coleman. I don't know. But then the Ravens, it's the same way. What would you do for this one? Lamar Jackson over under a half a start. Oh, I'd go over. Minus 150.

Not bad, right? Well, because the odds Flacco could get hurt. Who the hell knows? Yeah, they can get hurt. The problem is they'll need week 17 almost definitely if they're looking to make the playoffs. So it's not like they'll get a sympathy start. It didn't seem like the Bills wanted to make the playoffs last year and kind of stumbled into it.

But yeah, this is the year maybe they throw away. Arizona is home for the Washington Redskins. I had more problems trying to figure out this line than any of the 16 lines. Because I think Arizona stinks. I have no feel for Washington at all other than I think they upgraded a QB. Washington is

a, I'm not going to say sneaky, but a little bit under the radar possible wild card pick. And then if the Eagles are as crappy as Vegas seems to think they are maybe, who knows, they could win the division. I picked Arizona minus one and a half.

I do not feel good about it. What'd you have? I think you had, did you have Arizona one half or Washington one half? I had cards minus one and a half. Oh, okay. All right.

I had Washington minus two. You get it anyway. It's a pick them Vegas through their hands in the air. They couldn't figure it out either. Weird game. Very strange. I'm higher on the, on Washington than couldn't figure it out either. Weird game. Very strange. I'm higher on Washington than most people, but it is a strange game.

We always go back around week five, week six. We look back at week one and we get mad that we didn't realize certain things. It feels like this one could be one of them. We're like, wow, the Redskins were a pick-em in Arizona. Arizona's awful. They're going to go 1-15. And you just get mad at yourself.

East Coast going West usually matters, but when it's the first game of the year, maybe not as much of a factor, I don't think. Probably not as much. Josh Rosen, how many starts? Oh, I would say five, six, seven. Yeah, it's a good number. Six and a half is the over-under.

There you go. Right there. five, six, seven. Yeah. It's a good number. Six and a half is the over under. Ah, there you go. Well, once their season's done though, they'll, he'll be playing. Sure. Yeah. Yeah.

I'm talking about this year. No, I know, but when they're like one and seven or two and eight, he's coming in. Yeah. Should we cross them off? We usually cross teams off.

We wait the first time. We're not allowed to cross anyone off yet. We got to wait. Okay, we'll wait. Last poop factor game. This actually could have been in the barely watchable section. I was torn on it. I'll let you decide. Should this be in the poop factor or the barely watchables?

Broncos, Seahawks. I think it's barely watchable. Okay, so let's launch the... I think it's barely... It has 6-3 final potential, but I am interested in a few things with this. Alright, let's move it to the barely watchables. Denver, home,

Seattle. I think this is a classic minus three. I actually didn't think a lot about this. This seems like two even teams. One of them might be better than we think. One of them might be worse than we think. Both of them, who the hell knows? And we'll know after this game.

I should have thought it through more. You're right. Your analysis was right on. It is minus three. I said minus two. But yeah, Denver minus three at home. People like the Denver running back. People like Chris Carson. Doug Baldwin's a little banged up. Earl Thomas, that situation

has not been resolved yet. Denver, tough place to play. Russell Wilson would be the best player in the field. No Paxton Lynch. You don't have to worry about him. See, that's the thing. I was reading, this is what soured me on Denver as a possible sleeper. When they waive Paxton Lynch. You don't have to worry about him. See, that's the thing. I was reading, this is what soured me on Denver as a possible sleeper. When they waived Paxton Lynch,

somebody wrote the piece about Elway's last two drafts, 16 and 17. Not this 18 draft, but 16 and 17. It's a catastrophe. They basically, they just got nothing. They got no young talent out of those two drafts really. And I always feel like that is the death knell in the NFL. If you're not, if you don't nail a couple

drafts in a row and it goes the other way and you actually like botch two drafts in a row, pretty hard to come back from. I think I agree. I think the best team, the best thing to happen to Denver is that the Raiders hired John Gruden. It's taken away, it's taken everything away, all the attention away from what's going to be a ho-hum season. And the rest of the division is getting better.

Chargers, Chiefs, I don't know. I think we both like them double digits. So it could be a tough year for Denver. You know, it's so rare. This John Gruden thing, it's really a gift from the gods. It doesn't happen often. I remember when the Raiders hired Archel.

He hadn't coached in a long time. The internet hadn't really rounded into what it was yet. People just forgot how bad Archel was. The Raiders brought him back. For my column, I don't even think I had the podcast yet at this point. For my column, it was just a godsend. I'm going against the Raiders brought him back. And for my column, I don't even think I had the podcast yet at this point.

For my column, it was just a godsend. It was like, I'm going against the Raiders every week. Archel is a bad coach. This is a gift. And it was. I'm excited. It was great. I'm excited for this.

I think Gruden- It's a win-win. I get to watch you eat testicles if they win. I think Gruden is a gift from the gods. I think he is going to, I think that locker room is going to be toxic. I think he's going to throw everyone under the bus and he will spend this first year being,

leaking stuff and, oh, we wouldn't have had to trade Khalil Mack if they hadn't overpaid Derek Carr. It's all going down. It's all happening. Right. And it'll be interesting to see how ESPN handles it, whether they go kook gloves on it

because he's a former ESPN person or whether they actually write about it and talk about it accurately. Hey, let's take one more break. Hey, if you love to score amazing deals at incredible hotels, you'll love Hotel Tonight. They partner with hotels to help them sell their unsold rooms, helping you find sweet deals at cool, top-rated hotels.

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This arguably could have been a poop-fecta game, but Sal and I both like the Bengals this year. Colts home for the Bengals. Sal, I had the Colts favored by one and a half in this, and I hope I'm right. What did you have? I got this exactly. And I like the Bengals. We like the Beng got this exactly. I like, and I like the

bang. We like the Bengals this year. I said Colts by three and it is three, which even though I picked three, I think it's, it's a little high. If the Bengals are going to make the playoffs this year, they have to win this game. I hate to use must win for week one, but this is, they're going to go 10 and six, 11 and five beat the Colts. The Colts aren't good. Take care of business in this game. I've come around on the Bengals in this respect with the Dalton Lewis thing. And oh my God, the last four straight times in the playoffs and all that. This is really sad. I'm almost embarrassed to say it.

At least they've won stuff. At least they've succeeded. At least they've been involved in big games over the years with the nucleus they have for the most part and have come through a few times. It's not as far-fetched as like talking yourself into Mitch Trubisky making the playoffs. Like Dalton and Lewis have had seasons where they've gone 10 and six, 11 and five, whatever. Their defensive front seven has a chance

to be really, really good, especially when Burfik comes back. But there's a chance their D-line is just going to be like a beast, like one of the three best D-lines in the league, and they can get by with just enough on the other side to compete. Maybe Joe Mixon's going to be really good. Yeah. There's some pieces here, and this is the kind of game,

if it's lined up for them, that they should take care of business. And I know you agree. You like this Bengals team too. I do, and I'm with you. And if anyone needs to get off to a good start, it's them. Because weren't they shut out at home twice to start the season last year? I know the Ravens shut them out in Cincinnati week one last year.

But yeah, and they had lots of injuries. We discussed this on the Over-Unders pod. Boyd, Ross, A.J. Green, they get to play together. Could be interesting. The other thing that I noticed, their backup quarterback is Jeff Briscoe. So, yeah, don't get hurt, Andy Dalton. There's nothing good happening there. I honestly don't know who that is.

Jeff Briscoe? I don't know who it is. I don't think he's getting a Nike endorsement anytime soon. Jesus. Yeah, we need the bank. I honestly don't know who that is. Jeff Briscoe? I don't know who it is. I don't think he's getting a Nike endorsement anytime soon. I think last year, their fan base was just so agitated and frustrated by just watching this team kind of stay together

but never actually do anything. There was a real negativity last year. And now it's like they've given up. It's like one of those marriages where the couple, they think they're going to get divorced and what the, the husband moves out and they, and then they just kind of end up back together and they just look at each other and they're like, we're in our mid fifties. What are we going to do? Start dating again? Like, fuck it.

Let's stay together. And I think that's what the bank. Are you okay? You need a, no, I know. I said, I said mid fifties. I said mid fifties. I said mid-50s. I'm in my 40s. I'm sorry.

All right, I got nervous there. I think Bengals fans are just in that fuck it stage where they're just like, all right, whatever. 13, 15, it doesn't matter. Yeah, when they play the Steelers, are we throwing that in the barely watchable category only because of the violence? No, that's exceedingly watchable. I love when the Bengals play the Steelers.

No, I know, but it's also barely watchable. We'll have to figure that out. It's morally not watchable. Yeah. Saints-Bucks. This arguably could have been a poop-fecta game if the Bucs are as bad as we think they're going to be, but who knows? No Jameis. New Orleans at home.

New Orleans with a lot of indoor games this year, as usual. I think they have 11. I thought about double digits for this. I am looking at them in a three-teamer. I have the Saints 9.5. You got it exactly. It's 9. half. I said nine. What's this line of

Jameis' quarterback? Seven? Twelve and a half? Is Jameis out there? Yeah, I don't know. Can they just not make it double digits, division games? Right off the bat, it probably should be higher than this. They're just dying for us to throw

them in a tease. I'm going to, I'm breaking it out. Michael Conrad, Hill street blues, 35, 38, 39 years ago.

This is a, let's be careful game. This is it. Yeah. It just looks too easy. It looks too easy to throw the saints in a three teamer. And these NFC South games are super weird. And I could just see having a lot of money in the Saints,

which I know both you and I will talk ourselves into it. And then it'll be like, let's go to New Orleans where Ryan Fitzpatrick has it going. And we just have it. And we're like, what the hell's going on? We do a wind spool. You're doing one with the ring. I'm not going to be able to make that one,

but then we do it separately. Yeah. And the way it works is 30 teams are taken at the end of the day. Two teams are left out. I think Tampa's one of them. We should bet on the two that are going to be left out. I think it's Tampa and it's Arizona.

I think it's going to be Buffalo. I'd say Buffalo and Arizona would be the two that get left out. Really? Not Tampa anywhere. All right. We are doing that on The Ringer. We mentioned earlier on The Ringer, the Twitter feed, Facebook, and YouTube, 5 p.m. Tuesday. You can watch. You can't be there because you have other obligations, but you can watch it on one of those things.

That's tonight, right? Yeah. Yeah. And then somehow I have to figure out how to organize the other pool before Thursday. Hey, more barely watchables. Jags at the Giants. This has one of those, the under looks so glaringly obvious that I'm convinced this is going to be like in the 50s for points. It just looks like a classic nine to six.

Eli has four, like it's an interception battle, fumbles, and somehow the Jags will win 38-30. I have the Jags minus one and a half against the Giants in Giants Day. I gave them a full three, and they are favored by a field goal, so I get that one. This is such a thank God it's in New York in early September. Because if they go to MetLife in November, Giants could win like 27-13 or something. But I feel better about the Jaguars this week.

You would think, see, I'm really, I'm kind of, you could argue the Giants could be in the watchables category. I'm excited to see Barkley and Beckham together. I miss, I know Coughlin's, now he's Jaguars front half. I miss him on the sidelines in this game. Like the late, late winter, big, big red face. That's the one I like. I want to see that. It's not going to happen anymore.

Here we go. It could be a fun game. I'm excited to see how that one plays out. I don't know why I like this week one slate more than the usual week one slates, but there's a lot of ones where I'm like, oh, Jags-Giants. All right. Let's see how good Barkley is in this

game. Good defense. Panthers home. Cowboys in Carolina. Dallas on the road to start. There's been a lot of Dak Prescott. Should I break out lecture guy? Oh yeah. Let's see the lecture guy.

Where is he? People forget how good Dak Prescott was as a rookie. People just forget. Yeah. That's my new, my new character this year. Sports talking head lecture guy. Yeah. People forget.

People are going to isolate our takes and now yours because this is your character and throw it right back in our face. Put together some kind of YouTube video. Talking head guy. Do a lecture guy. Well, we're not supposed to be doing lecture guy. I was coming back from Florida with my son. We were on a 7 a.m. East Coast flight.

Land at like 9, get an Uber. Uber takes an extra 10 minutes to get there. And right as we're about to pull in, one of those TMZ-type cameras comes up. And they're asking me about LeBron and the Lakers. Yeah. They're asking about LeBron and the Lakers. And what do you think?

When do they make the finals? I'm in a freaking coma. I'm trying, my son's trying to get in the car. And then they ask how many titles LeBron won in the Lakers with the Lakers. What are, what are my possible answers there?

That's perfect. If I say like two, then everyone back home is like, oh, that fucking Simmons. He goes to LA. He's now the way he thinks LeBron's going to win the title. And then if I say zero,

now I'm a TMZ clip, but I hate the Lakers, so obviously I had to hold up the zero with my fingers. Yeah, hold up the zero. The visual cue was key there, followed by the slamming of the door with the same hand, which is very

like, almost as if you planned it on the runway as you had landed. Well, unfortunately, as soon as I did it, I'm like, fuck, that's going to be on TMZ. Damn it. Why didn't I just say, I don't know? Or, like, the way to do it is just to never answer anything. Right, yeah. The bonus was my son was super excited. Oh, yeah.

Yeah, he was really excited for his first TMZ sports thing. But yeah, there's a classic example of, I'm sure that'll get thrown in my face. I think you should have just had your son from the top of the hood of the car bounce an elbow on the TMZ photographer's head, and then they know not to screw with you anymore. He was doing NXT entrances yesterday

for like two hours with no shirt on, playing all these dudes Pete Dunne and all these guys I barely even know and he's imitating them and we're like wow school's starting Wednesday and you should be reading anything

anyway I have Carolina minus five at home against the Cowboys. Classic Vegas zone. What do you have? You're going to hate this. I have minus four, and it's minus three.

Carolina's only a field goal favorite over the Cowboys. All right. I like it. The public likes Dallas this year. No, this is good because I don't think they're going to be good. This shapes up well for me. All right. All right. All right.

The Watchables. What a motley crew of entertaining and weird games this is. The Cleveland Browns cracking the Watchables for the first time in how many years? Five? Yeah, I don't expect it'll happen. Don't get too used to it, right? This is it. Steelers at Cleveland.

Wow. I'm actually kind of excited to watch this. I have Steelers minus four and a half favored over Cleveland. Yeah, you're going to get it. I went six and a half. It was five and a half. It's down to four. So you're closer here.

The whole thing is Le'Veon Bell, if he's playing or not. It's looking like as the hours draw on and on, looks like he's not playing, right? Yeah, or he's going to wait until like three hours before. I don't know. He could do that? I guess he could do it. I was watching Bad News Bears and Breaking Train the other day.

Kelly Leak showed up right before the game. Maybe that's what Le'Veon Bell saw. They let him play? Yeah, they let him play. Yeah, but he brought beers for everyone, so it's different. I don't think... We've seen these Steelers-Cleveland games. What was it, last year or two years ago?

Cleveland was up like 20 to nothing. Remember that in the second quarter? It's like, dude, Johnson's ripped off another touchdown. I think it was a couple years ago, Cleveland was up like 20 to nothing. Remember that in the second quarter? It's like, dude, Johnson's ripped off another touchdown. I think it was a couple years ago. Last year, this was the first game of the year, Pittsburgh or Cleveland. I know because Pittsburgh was my best bet. They were favored by nine and a half,

and they won by three. It was the Browns' closest game of the year. And out of the week one games, only two games were decided by fewer than six points. That's something to keep in mind. I don't know what you do with it, but yeah, it's shrinking more and more in the Browns' favor.

With Bell being out, how much can you help the Browns overall? And they have all these top five picks. They have two, it looks like, at least decent quarterbacks. I'm not betting the Browns I like Jarvis Landry on their five and a half touchdowns all that said

bless him I like I like the fact that we're going to maybe look back at this four weeks from now and not be able to believe that the Browns were only four-point underdogs against a playoff team. We should

mark that. What was the other one you said? Arizona Washington, the one, the head scratcher from a month later. Yeah, Arizona Washington and Colts-Bengals are the three. Yeah. The Bengals-Colts game, that could look really ridiculous in a couple weeks.

Next one. Next watchable. This arguably could have been the marquee game. Which game are you more excited for, Vikings-Niners or Chargers-Chiefs? I think Chargers-Chiefs. Yeah, I think I blew it. This should have been the marquee game. Well, we're going to see it again, though, so I could see why.

We're not going to see Vikings-Niners. True. This is in LA I'm going to say 15,000 KC Chiefs fans there Maybe 16 Something like that They had a lot last year I think it's a classic Chargers minus 3

What do you have? I had 4 and it's 3.5 So we split that one Who's winning right now? Just out of curiosity. Let me think. There's two left. How many games left?

Four left. So there's four left. You are, we're tied right now. Okay, great. We're tied. So for our Chiefs bet, the Chiefs winning this game big game immediately puts us in the driver's seat right

we'll see what's the over on the before either of us says San Diego instead of LA Chargers one and a half podcast we won't count me saying that right now but halfway through next week's podcast I have me calling Derek Carr David Carr minus nine and a half over me saying the San Diego chargers for the

entire season. All right. That'll definitely happen. Pat's home for the Texans who, other than the bizarre Jacoby Brissett game, the Texans have done a pretty good job against the Pats over the years. I guess they're in new England every year, right? Yeah.

Every single year. You can't count the playoffs, but it's scheduled as a regular season game. Some guys missing on the Pats. I'm not sure who the number two receiver on the team is right now. Nephew Kyle, do we know? I got no clue. Not one clue. I really don't. They picked up two dudes from

other people's practice squads who are apparently going to suit up for this game, which seemed uncharacteristic. The Patriots? Yeah, for the Belichick guy. They have two guys who they just picked up. It's not Dorsett? Who's their second receiver? Isn't that it?

It might be. Oh, come on. It might be Cordero Patterson. I don't know. Yeah. It's going to be a lot of Gronk. I'm worried about this game. I have Pats by seven, and they're dying to be teased.

Dying. Begging for it. Yeah. I had seven also, and it's six. I agree with you. I don't think I'd lose another opener, home opener. So what do we like? We like them and Minnesota? No, I'm not betting on the Pats.

I want to watch them. I want to watch them one game. Let me run a few Pats props by you. I'll let you guess the number. Gronk starts. Oh, last year we made this a lock and we were right. Wasn't it like 14 last year?

I think so, yeah. I'm going to say 12 and a half. Yeah, it's 13 and a half. Because they'll sit him out. They'll sit him out. If they clinch the AFC East, they'll sit him out of the last two games. He won't even start. Yeah, he'll sit in the middle of the air for no reason.

Which Patriot will lead the team in rushing? Burkhead minus 145, Sonny Michel plus 155, Jeremy Hill 5-1, James White 5-1. They have Gillis Lee. Even though he's 25-1, I don't recommend you betting Gillis Lee

because he was cut, and I think he's a New Orleans Saint now. Is Burkhead really going to lead this team in rushing? They liked Burkhead last year, and he got hurt, and it kind of knocked them backwards, but I actually do think there's going to be a lot of Rex Burkhead this year. Hmm. All right. I don't know if that's a good thing.

I'm worried about this game. I'm not teasing the Pats. The Texans, there's like three or four teams and I don't, I'm not necessarily, I didn't pick them to make the playoffs, but there's three or four teams out there that you could kind of see the path where they would be like, oh,

the Texans, wow, they're 11-5. And, you know, because just they have some blue chippers. They have a really good quarterback, potentially. They have some studs on the D. They have probably the best receiver in the league. Not sure about, there's no dominant team in their division. There's a case to be made.

You like that more than I do, right? I do, and I especially, I like Hopkins' most receiving yards, plus 950. They could get 1,200 there. I mean, Watson's going to throw bombs this year, not just a fuller, right? Yeah. Plus 950 for most receiving yards?

Jump on that. I got to say, I love watching Deshaun Watson. I just kind of need to see it. I don't like the injury he had. He's not a necessarily huge guy. I think there's a... If you had to say, bet your life, how many starts has he had this year?

Let's say 13 and a half is the over-under. Would you go over-under? Oh, that's good. So Watson starts versus Gronk starts. If you had that even odds. Oh, shit. I don't think either of them get to 14. You pass on it.

I think I'm just excited about them. I'm excited about them. I'm excited about the Chargers being good. I'm excited about everyone in the AFC, but the Patriots being good. So obviously those will all fall flat. It'll be nice when Edelman comes back. We'll know what we have with this Pats team. But until then, I'm a little concerned.

Sunday night. Suddenly the best game of the week, I think. I am really, like, genuinely excited for this. Yeah. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Lambeau to host Khalil Mack and the Chicago Bears. Wow. That's a great game.

I'm pumped. It's still, no matter what, it's still Mitch Trubitsky going to Lambeau That's a great game. I'm pumped. It's still, no matter what, it's still Mitch Trubisky going to Lambeau and trying to win, right? Yeah, which is why I was going to say, I think, I don't know. The thing is, if you think the Bears are going to make the playoffs,

then you have to believe in them in this game. But man, the Packers are dying to be teased. I have the Packers seven and a half over Chicago. Yeah, I had six and a half. It was seven. It went up to seven and a half. After the signing, after the Khalil Mack signing, it actually went up to seven and a half, which is

weird. Is this our second teased game or you're all in on the Bears? You don't want to do that. I want to root for the Bears. We have money on them. I'm excited for them. At this point, the Raiders will have gotten trounced by, oh, no, they wouldn't have played yet. No, Monday. The Raiders played Monday night.

Yeah, I want to root for the Bears. I don't know who our teaser team is, Sal. You didn't want Minnesota. You said Baltimore. I'm not putting money on Flacco, oh, you want Minnesota. You don't like- I like Minnesota. Not Baltimore? I'm not putting money on Flacco. Yeah, I hate it. Now that the hour's passed, I can't stand any of these.

I think if you go through your text from like 2015 or 2016, there's a text in there where I basically say, if I bet on Joe Flacco and a tease again, you have permission to bludgeon me in the head. Show this to the cops. I think I did send you that text. You can kill me and I exonerate you.

You cannot go to jail. Please shoot me. Alright, good. I like it. See, you should have taken the Subway sandwich beating. It would have been a lot less painful. Do we do a seven point tease with the Saints and the Vikes? Could do that. Bring the Saints down to two and a half?

Yeah, could do that. Yeah, that's what- We could do a lot. You're up one going into the Monday games. Oh, let's take a dramatic break and then we'll finish. All right. Let's talk about Wink. Wink with a C.

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You get $20 off your first shipment. That is T-R-Y-W-I-N-C.com slash BS for $20 off trywink.com slash BS. Monday night, a shockingly exciting 7 p.m. East Coast Monday night game. Xavier Sam is heading to Detroit to play the Lions. Dare I say, this is probably the most excitement we've had for what's usually a crappy game or a disjointed game. It's always a weird time, weird

stuff going on. If the Jets are going to be sleepery at all, I think they have to win this game. I have the Jets as 6.5 point underdogs in Detroit. What do you have? Damn. You got it. I said 5. I thought it was Vegas zone. It is

6.5. They're not trusting Darnold on the road and maybe with good reason. I wouldn't put this in a teaser, though. This would be exciting if the Jets pull the upset. Well, one of the things I'm excited to do this year is bet against Matt Patricia. And that's one of many reasons why I wouldn't put this in a tease. But especially now if the Bears are going to be good too,

you have three good teams in that division and then the Lions who have flustered us over and over again over the years. Who's calling this game? I always like the ESPN early Monday game. Is it like nephew Kyle doing this? Who do they have now? I don't even know. I don't know.

Kyle, can you look that up? Who's, who's calling this? Just do it, Kyle. Just, just do it.

You want Kyle to actually do it? Yeah. Yeah. Just let them do it. Who's who's calling the Monday night, 7 PM lions jets game. Kyle. Sean McDonough.

Sean McDonough. Is that right? No, no. Can't be Sean McDonough. He's out as play-by-play announcer. Oh. I got to teach Kyle how to Google. Hold on.

Hold on. Give me eight minutes here. I'm only saying he's out. Hold on. Jesus. You would have thought I would have asked him to explain blockchain. Jason Witten? No, he's doing the second game.

Oh, wait, no. He's doing the good game. Oh, wait, no. He's doing the good game. Yeah. Kyle's going to tell us in week two podcast. He'll tell us. I'll just put this in my notes. Try to buy Halloween and get it to us. Kyle, are you single?

How did Labor Day weekend happen? Oh, man. Don't we have another game to get to? No. No, people ask me now. People are emailing. People are asking me, dude. Are you single? No. D ask me now. People are emailing me. People are asking me, dude. Are you single?

No. Dating? Yeah. Back together? We were spotted in public yesterday. Oh my God, you're like Pete Davidson and Ariana Grande. Well, we don't know who's announcing this game and Kyle certainly can't tell us, but Lions-Jets.

What was the worst? Was it Berman? Was that our low point for this game as much as we love the worst? Was it Berman? Was that our low point for this game as much as we love Berman? Yeah, Berman used to do this a little bit. He'll be back a little bit, right? Yeah. Wasn't there a year it was like Berman and somebody random who hadn't done the game and just people got so mad? Then Mike and Mike did it.

Last year, the year they had the ESPN Deportes guy on the sideline. What happened with the way they thought he was having like a seizure? Oh, yeah. Last year, right year they had the ESPN Deportes guy on the sideline. What happened with the way they thought he was having a seizure? Oh, yeah. He froze. Yeah, that was awesome. Something weird always happens in this game. Have him back. Have him back.

Have that guy back. He's worked on himself. All right, so you won. You're up two, and this is the last one. This is a great one. I love this game. Rams Raiders. Oh, yeah.

I have Rams minus 10. They can't make this line high enough. Oh, my God. Really? You can't win this week being off six and a half points. I hit it exactly. It's four and a half. Rams by four and a half. Ten. hit it exactly. It's four and a half. Rams by four and a half.

Ten. Wait a second. Where's the game? Oh, it's in Oakland. Oh, I thought it was in L.A. Oh, all right. My bad. Oh, all right.

I deserve to lose that anyway. Of course I can't win still. You still win by one. You win four to three with four. No. What was it? I got to say, if I had known it was an Oakwood,

I still would have said Rams by like six and a half. Right. So here's what we do. So yeah, we, we, we money line parlay the Vikings and the Rams. All right.

That will take us above plus 100, right? That'll take us like plus 120, plus 125, plus 130 range. Yep, right in there. Take care of business on the Vikings game. And then we just get to hold that money line parlay all the way until Monday night. And then we win because the Rams are going to beat the Raiders. And then when the Raiders win,

people jump in our Twitter mentions and call us terrible things for the next 24 hours. Either way we win. Either we're insulted and humiliated or we just win money. Either way, it's great. You know what this is? We were just dealt two threes against the six in blackjack. And we're splitting the threes. Yeah, we're putting more money on the table.

And then we're dealt another three, and we're splitting that one, and then we're dealt another three. So we have the Raiders under wins. We have the Raiders to not make the playoffs. We have the Raiders to lose Monday night. It's great. I'm so excited. I'm shorting all things Gruden this year

Let me tell you about this guy This guy's not going to win games Alright It's time for Parent Corner America's favorite segment is back You go first I'll go first Mine's half parent related

And half just weird story to me So Saturday night I'm at home. My son's got a fantasy draft. He asked all his friends to be in it. And he's got nine slots filled and he's got one more. And the draft is like at eight o'clock. I was like, what are you going to do

about this last slot? He's like, I don't know. At four o'clock, he's like, I don't know. I'm like, what are you talking about? This would drive me crazy. You need to be on the phone. You need to be pushing this. Get it going.

Get this last. He's like, I will. You know, barely speak. 6 o'clock, it's still not full. I was like, I'm not doing this because I'm in three leagues, but why don't you ask my friend Harry? Harry gets along with the kids. Well, Harry from Against All Odds.

They'll want to do it. Sure enough, Harry's ready. He's not doing anything on a Saturday night. What could he be doing? So Harry is going to jump in. So my son goes upstairs to do his draft, and there's a knock at the door. Pretty loud knock. And I open it up, and it's like 10 high school kids, bigger than my son.

And it's kind of around 9 o'clock at night. It's a little menacing to have a group of guys half and bigger than you at the door. And I was like, hey, guys, can I help you? And they're like, yeah. I was like, this is going to sound weird, but we know you're a football fan, and we need one more person for our fantasy league.

And it's drafting like in an hour. Would you want to join with us? What? I was like, oh, Jesus, thank God you're not robbing me. But on the other hand, you somehow know me and that I live here. And no, I'm not doing this. Get the hell away from me kind of thing. No, I let them off easy, but I was like, this is so,

this is the sports nerd version of Christmas caroling in 2018. So, yeah, I don't know. So beware. Beware of knocking the door. It could be kids asking you to join a fantasy draft. That's unbelievable. I couldn't. I had to go through it in my head a bunch of times

because the coincidence and organizing other fantasy drafts, it was so strange to me. But no one, as far as I could tell, put them up to it. My parent corner corner my daughter's now 13 everybody warned me that for the next 7 to 10 years my

wife and daughter would like genuinely detest each other and I was like there's no way my daughter like you've heard her on the podcast she's such a sweetheart there's no way my daughter, like you've heard her on the podcast. She's such a sweetheart. There's no way. I don't see it. Um, everybody was right. It's, it's just, I don't know what it is, but the, the mom daughter thing, you're going to miss out. You had three sons,

one of whom's going to be living with Ken and Harrison in Arizona. It's just, it's, it starts just, it starts out with an eye roll. An eye roll coming from my daughter, just flies one out, little dagger over something minor, followed by my wife overreacting to the eye roll, followed by my daughter then overreacting to the overreaction to the eye roll. Nice. And daughter then overreacting to the overreaction to the eye roll.

Nice. And then it just goes back and forth. And Ben and I just sit there and it's like, we're just kind of there as they go at it for five to six minutes. We had the soccer tournament this week and we're at the hotel. We're having lunch on a Saturday. Beautiful day. It's between games.

They won the first game. Everybody's in a good mood. And within 10 minutes, my wife got up and left, literally left half of her food and thing. She's like, I can't take it anymore. I don't like the person you've become. And just gets up and leaves. My daughter's now crying. And my son and I are just looking at each other like, Hey, so you're excited for the little league season? And it's like all minor stuff. And

I don't know. I've just never been in this situation before. It's going to get worse when when boys get involved. She comes out with the cameras right on the heels of I don't like the person you've become. And asking what she meant by that. Oh no.

Yeah, and what it comes down to is she doesn't like that my daughter straightens her hair with the hair iron and then leaves the hair iron and the, what are they? The curling iron. Then leaves the curling iron

on in the bathroom and my wife actually touched her hand and hurt her hand because my daughter's sloppy and it's just like... Do they share a curling iron? I mean, it seems like

this could be solved for like $14 or something. It really does. But then you talk to the other moms and it's just like do they share a curling iron? I mean it seems like this could be sold for like $14 or something. It really does but then you talk to the other moms and it's just like World War III with 13 year old girls

and their moms. It's just across the board it's not just my family and it really feels like this should be a podcast where like survivors

you have survivors of terrible events it's just survivors of people from families with 13 year old girls and their wives yeah it's like Real Housewives but it focuses more on the mother daughter relationship yeah like I could tell

the story about when you know some story that led to somebody storming off and then I get to hear maybe it's like rehab where people go to like Alcoholics Anonymous I just me and Ben go to these things where people just tell stories and then we all feel better about our situations.

It's like, oh, it just happened to everybody. So yeah, I don't know what the next few years of my life are like, but. Well, I have Dr. Drew's number if you guys want to talk it out. My, my wife, my wife also yelled at my daughter recently that she dresses like a Russian. It was one of her insults. If you want to wear that, that's fine. You look like a Russian, which I guess is insulting. I don't do Russians dress the right way.

I guess so. I mean, it depends. If it's Vladimir Putin, yeah, or one of the weightlifters, yeah, you don't want to be compared to that. Nephew Kyle, you've been caught in the crossfire a couple of times. I'm pretty held in high regards on both sides. And I like to keep it that way. You're like, Nephew Kyle's like the favorite member of the Simmons family now. Yeah. He does it just right. Anyway, send us emails at themailbagattheringer.com if you have any advice how to deal with a 13 year

old daughter and a mom. And I feel like I really lucked out with my daughter too. So if it's happening with my daughter, it's happening everywhere. Because I see some of the Instagram that's going on now, some of the Instagram games, some of these pictures kids her age are posting. I'm like, I actually feel like I lucked out so far, but we'll see.

Anyway, check it out. You did well. The mailbag at thering we'll see. Anyway, check it out. You did well. Themailbagattheringer.com. Sal, plug some stuff. Oh, yeah. Well, Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight. Rami Malek, Jennifer Love Hewitt. The Lemon Twigs are on.

Against All Odds, Wednesday, tomorrow. The Generate trifecta will have their NFL prop bets, their best bets. Oh, check out Lock It In, Fox Sports 1. Next Monday debuts 4.30 to 5.30 Eastern Time. Mets live. I'll have that job for like two weeks before they come to their senses. And our fantasy football draft tonight. Simmons, 7-2

odds to get kicked out. Brad, 2-1 favorite. I hate that damage checks in the power seat. I think I'm going to get... You could blame Michael Crabtree because I was in the finals against him and Crabtree decided to chuck his helmet into the crowd in the first quarter and that was it.

Part of me hopes I get voted out. It would be like a relief. I hope you don't because you'll never come back. You're a big baby about these things. You'll never return. Why am I a big baby? I don't like the person you'll never come back. You're a big baby about these things. You'll never return. Why am I a big baby? I don't like the person you've become, Sal.

Guys, I found the Monday Night Commentators. Oh, so Kyle found the Monday Night Commentators. Wow. Just under the wire. Jesus. Brian Grease. Brian Greasey. And Beth Mowens. Yeah.

And who? Beth Mowens. Beth Mowens. Oh, yeah. Play by play that's right they do that of course

yeah okay and then you have Against All Odds you're you're gonna do Wednesdays this year

yes Wednesday nights okay and we're gonna get to hear from the trifecta and props all that stuff yeah good stuff ahead

alright the cuz good job by you good job by you boy alright that's it. Don't forget to check out Against All Odds. Don't forget about ZipRecruiter, our presenting sponsor. Go to ziprecruiter.com slash BS to find out how to hire successfully. Don't forget about the Ringers

Winspool draft happening today, Tuesday, 5 p.m. ET. Check out our Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, all that stuff. You know where to go. Can't wait to see who doesn't get picked. Thanks to FanDuel. If you're not a fantasy expert, FanDuel, clearly the place to play. This season, they're running a free $250,000 survivor contest. The biggest free survivor contest ever. Pick one team to win each week.

Can't reuse that team rest of the season. Locks before week one. Don't miss your chance to sign up right now to get into that free contest. Go to fanduel.com slash BS. New Year's is getting a $20 bonus when they make their first deposit on FanDuel. Come play with me. FanDuel.com slash BS. Don't forget to go to theringer.com. Back with two more podcasts this week. Until then. I feel the air twisting on the wayside I'm a person never

I don't have to ever