The Bill Simmons Podcast - Guessing 2018-19 NBA Over/Unders With Joe House: The Ninth Annual Edition | The Bill Simmons Podcast (Ep. 427)

Episode Date: October 11, 2018

HBO and The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House for a preseason tradition, the ninth annual guessing of the NBA over/unders. They hit all 30 teams in one podcast, so buckle up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network brought to you as always by our friends at ZipRecruiter. You know what's not smart? Not listening to House and I on NBA over under win totals. We had an off year for us last year and it still was not a losing year. This year will be a winning year. We feel very good about this year. You know what else isn't smart? Job sites that overwhelm you with tons of the wrong resumes. Luckily, there's a smart way at ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. They find people with the right skills for your job. Actively invite them to apply.

My listeners can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. They are the best. They're rated number one. ZipRecruiter, the smartest way to hire. Meanwhile, we're brought to you by TheRinger.com and The Ringer Podcast Network and Ringer Preview Palooza because that's happening. Oh yeah, on Tuesday.

This is one of the best things we have ever done at this company and even like ranks up there with some of the Grantland stuff too. Very ambitious all day affair on Tuesday. Videos, podcasts, live watch on YouTube, the whole thing. More details to come on Monday as I will prepare you to ruin your day on Tuesday if you love basketball.

Speaking of ruining your day, I called Jacko for the Ringer MLB show to talk about the Red Sox Yankees and the Yankees demise. He was surprisingly level-headed. Normally we would have put it on this podcast, but we were just stacked. We had Rosillo and Kevin O'Connor and I tried to figure out the NBA MVP. We talked to John C.

Riley. He was great. We just didn't have room for Jacko. We moved our routine over to the ringer MLB show. So if you want to hear us talk about that, great. I might actually hop on there with my dad potentially to talk about a Red Sox Astros. It's great. It's a baseball feed.

We put a baseball podcast. Why not use it? So that's been fun. And then ringer NBA show. We've been previewing the league for the past couple of weeks. Kevin O'Connor, Chris Vernon finally kind of named their podcast, that seems like, The Mismatch.

Good times there. One Shining Podcast, they mailed Tate 60 boxes of Cheez-Its. And cookies. And cookies. Kyle got a tattoo. Titus is coming to LA. There's a world tour,

four cities in the Midwest coming up next month. So they're having a breakout. Good job by them. And then last but not least on the podcast housekeeping front, House and I are also going on Against All Odds with Cousin Sal. And we're going to run that. I think we're going to put that up Monday, but we're doing NBA futures on that. So that's MVP, Rookie of the Year, who's going to win the title, finals matchup bets, all that's the scoring title. All that stuff is going to be on Against All Odds with Cousin Sal. So if you like that stuff, I would hop over there, subscribe, or keep an eye out. I don't know when that's coming up, Probably Friday, maybe Monday. We're taping it today. Right now, House and I, it's time.

I don't know. This is like the eighth year, the ninth year. I can't even remember how many years we've been doing this. NBA over, under, win totals. Answering important questions like, who the hell is Lloyd Pierce and what team does he coach? We're going to find all that out right now. But first, Pearl Jam.

Hello, my friends. What a great show we have on the House of... Oh, no, wrong podcast. Joe House is here, though. Do you like my Joe House impersonation? That was your House impersonation? I tried. I half-assed it. I half-assed it.

I half-assed it like how Jimmy Butler half-assed this week when now he's all about winning. And yet the three teams he requested trades to were the Clippers, Nets, and Knicks. I'm pretty sure those teams don't win consistently. The Clippers did for like three years. But if you're all about winning, why not ask for trades to teams that win, like the Rockets? Doesn't that make sense, Joe? Look, I'm very excited to be here today

doing the podcast that we're about to do because it gave me the opportunity to tell you, to remind you, you effing need me. You can't win without me. Should I do that in Jimmy Walker, in Jimmy Butler voice? Should I try it in Jimmy Butler voice? Am I more Talons or Wiggins? Am I the talented guy who doesn't give a shit

or the guy who's not an alpha dog? Oh, wait, I'm neither. I don't know what Jimmy Butler's talking about. I don't know what he's won. He's been on this podcast twice. I liked him. But he's carrying himself like he's Kobe Bryant in like 2010. It's like, make that third round.

He didn't say I'm a winner. He said to them, you can't win without me. He said to them, I know you need me. He's right. They do need them. They can't win without him.

Yeah. But at least as long as Tibbs is the coach, he's unhappy playing with these two guys that allegedly don't care about winning and are soft or whatever narrative he's crafting. But then he was upset that they didn't trade him to Miami. I just want to remind people who's on Miami. Hassan Whiteside. Deion Waiters.

Are these guys that are like winners? What's going on here, house? How can you be? I got to get out of here. These guys don't care about winning. I want to play with the sound white side. That's my guy. He's just going to be unhappy anywhere he goes.

I think the Miami thing is all Pat Riley. I give any time anybody says anything about Miami. I assume this Bengali has been weaving his magic and has cast his spell. I have a feeling with no inside information, I still

feel in my bones that the Rockets are going to... I think Miami. I thought it was going to be Miami. I thought they had the best assets for a trade other than the Clippers. The Clippers didn't want to put Gilgis Alexander out there. Gilgis, Gilgis. I'll get that wrong for the next five years.

They didn't want to put Shea on the table, which is fine. It's their prerogative. Miami had the best assets to make a trade. It almost happened. It fell through for whatever reason. And now, because of the way the NBA works with these dudes that start texting each other, if Chris Paul and James Harden get into this, hey man, hey man, let's get you here. We can make this happen. Go blow up your Minnesota situation. And then all of a sudden,

Daryl swoops in, Eric Gordon, some picks. Maybe they send Brandon Knight's contract, which is two years left for Dang's contract, which has three years left. They just kind of basically make it easy for Minnesota to get 50 cents on the dollar, and then they hope that Chris Paul and Harden can corral Jim Butler. Does that feel logical to you? Well, it makes sense with one exception tibbs appears to be a stubborn mother effer yeah he is an old school by the book he's a he's straight out of central casting for hoosiers he could go if they remade hoosiers he would be my number one recommendation for coach.

Well, he was single. He's single like Norman Dale. I mean, I just don't see him yielding. Somebody would have to intervene and tell him. But by the way, I agree with you, and I think he's right. Because guess who's getting fired after this season if none of this stuff works out? Tom Thibodeau.

That's happening. So he's better off kind of doing this game of chicken with Jimmy Butler, and either his value goes up in December, January, February when people start becoming unhappy with their teams, or Jimmy Butler just stays. Either way, it's a better situation for him in his do-or-die year as coach than 50 cents on the dollar in a trade, I think. Well, the truly interesting intrigue there is whether or not he gets fired ahead of time because the owner just says, I'm not going to abide this.

I want to get whatever I can for Jimmy Butler. I don't want this guy. I mean, there could be an owner overrule, right? Yeah, and the owner has been a train wreck for 25 years. The Butler-Towns Wigan situation sounds like a train wreck. Butler has now been unhappy three different times in the past three years. It's in Minnesota, which is kind of funny in itself because the people there probably just care about the Vikings. And nobody wants to make a trade with a week left in the season. Nobody wants to shake things up.

There's not the right assets out there. Can we all agree it's much more fun if he just stays? That's how I want this to play out. I want the season to start with Jimmy Butler in open contempt of Townsend Wiggins and they're all playing on League Pass. That's what I want. Sign me up for that.

Every limb of mine is up in the air right now. I have both hands up. I have my legs up. Everything I can stick in the air is up right now for that proposition. I also love, personally, this is one of my just favorite things as a human being with weird picadillos. I love the people who carry themselves like

there's something way better than they are. And this is really a rare moment where we have a celebrity that's not very self-aware who is doing this. I'm all about winning. But meanwhile, like part of winning is being a good teammate and being a leader and not just blowing things up the first chance you get, which is what he's done three times now. I have just such a guy in my life here, and I don't want to say any bad things about him because I'm going to say very, many, very good things about him, but that's, you just described John Wall to a T. Yeah. Part of leadership is being a leader and being good teammate and not causing drama and but to be fair like where would somebody like jimmy butler or john wall have uh had the opportunity to develop that that experience they wouldn't

right wouldn't at all he doesn't have the experience he doesn't know like the best player in his team the first couple years uh he was in chicago was was derrick rose who's you know they're not exactly making sports movies about all the great speeches derrick rose cave over his career like he's just it's a lead by example thing in a lot of ways too and i'm not sure butler's maybe seen the best examples um i also think he's a really proud guy he's really stubborn. He works his ass off. Like the key thing he said in that Rachel Nichols interview yesterday was,

I'm not the most talented guy in this team. Towns is more talented. Wiggins has everything you'd want from a player, but I work the hardest and that shouldn't be the case. It's like, all right, technically you're right, but Wiggins is 22 and Towns is 22 or 23, however old they are. It's like, they're not finished products yet.

You actually could really help these guys. You could be their leader. The way to lead is not by just berating them and making them feel like shit and make them hate you. You're not Kobe Bryant. That's an extension of his head coach who has all of the traits and attributes that you just described,

which is grinding guys down, coaching with an iron fist you know by by all appearances and by reputation the thing that i i'm interested in we were together in las vegas uh we had a podcast where that included some uh forecasting on how the league might change over the next couple years. I really feel like the idea of the individual teams being run more like businesses, where the leadership comes from an institutional culture kind of thing, because we still have wide disparity, a huge discrepancy between individual franchises and how they conduct themselves. The Spurs, who I'm going to, I'll tell you right now, look very hard at their over,

notwithstanding the injury to DeJounte. It's institutional. It's a leadership by inside from a culture that they instill. And how the other teams in the league can't figure that out is just beyond me. There's not a lot of teams with the good infrastructure. But I also think this is the generation, the 20-somethings. I say this endearingly because a lot of them work for us. Uh-oh, you're about to crap on the millennials, aren't you?

No, these aren't millennials. This is like the sub-millennials. Oh. It's a little bit, what about me? What am I getting? Where should I go? I'm not happy. I'll go here. And it's from a sports standpoint, it doesn't seem like anybody ever

stays happy. Everybody's always thinking about, ah, there's gotta be a better situation. I look at Butler. Butler's playing with Towns, who if we did the trade value list right now, would be in the top 11. He's playing with Wiggins, who was really disappointing last year, obviously, but still has potential. I wouldn't rule Wiggins out yet. And they have some good role players. It's not a bad situation.

Butler's making it seem like he's on the Titanic. And if you just go through the league, there's real buzz now that durant might leave golden state and he's time for his next journey like this is coming from every circle of the nba now it's not just like this is not just gossip this is like this is very very reminiscent to last year with lebron's leaving cleveland it's just starting to feel like this is his last year there. To me, it's crazy. Why would he leave? He has a chance to potentially win four titles or three titles in three years, but they would be four and five. They would be on the short list of the greatest runs we've ever

had in the league. Russell Celtics, the Warriors winning four and five, the Bulls winning six and eight, and whatever the Mikens Lakers did in the 50s. Like now we're talking about real history and you would leave that? That seems weirder to me than joining the Warriors in the first place. Am I crazy? No, and there's only a couple destinations

that make sense. It does seem like with this generation of athlete, and we're not talking about sub-20-somethings anymore. Now you're... Because we morphed into a player that's wanting to define a legacy. The only place he can go... Is the Knicks.

...is the Knicks. It has to be the Knicks. It has to be the Knicks. And by the way, it's actually a pretty good narrative for him. And I get it. I understand it. Because if you're, you know, obviously I've gotten to know him a little bit, not that well.

But if you're starting to feel like I can't win and we can keep winning titles, I'm always going to take shit from people. And if you care about that, which I think he does, the way to flip that is to go to the next. Like, all right, man, you wanted me to take a challenge? Here we go. This is the black sheep of the league. This team was the first NBA team we had, and they've won two titles. This team has not been relevant this entire century.

This is the Mecca. This is the biggest city in America. I'm going to come here. I'm going to bring you a title that'd be pretty ballsy i don't think he should do it i don't think he should do it well i'll tell you right now i'm rooting for it i'm rooting for it because i like the nba when the knicks are relevant i love msg when msg is bumping me too i mean we've had you know just these little teasers with madison square garden getting fired up for individual players who've gone on individual runs.

The Linsanity was such a great moment, but that's like the last extended great run at MSG in the last five years or so. It would be more fun. The league's more fun if the Knicks are good. And there is a world in which next year they have R.J. Barrett, Kevin Durant, Kevin Knox, and Porzingis, and that's their nucleus. It's actually not unrealistic. Don't they have the money for one more free agent? They would have to frame Tim Hardaway for a murder or something.

I don't know. You can't rule it out. All right, we've digressed enough. We're going to take a very quick break, and you and I are going to bang out our favorite podcast of the year, NBA Over-Unders. I'm super excited. I brought you here to win, Joe House. Are you about winning?

Are you about winning these Over-Unders? Because I'm only about winning right now, Joe House. I'm only about winning, Joe House. I don't want any soft-ass players around here. I'm here to win. I show up. You need me. I play. You need me. I lifted these Over-Unders. I'm only about winning, Joe House. I don't want any soft-ass players around here. I'm here to win. I show up. You need me. I play.

You need me. I lifted these over-unders. I'm here to win. Quick break to talk about Hotel Tonight. Here's a little insider travel secret from our friends at Hotel Tonight. Tons of empty rooms out there still available, still waiting to be booked at hotels. Hotel Tonight has partnered with these incredible, awesome hotels to help them sell their unsold rooms, which means you get great deals. Forget scrolling through those never-ending lists

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I love Hotel Tonight. It starts growing amazing deals at incredible hotels. Go to hoteltonight.com or download the app right now. All right, we're back. Over-unders, we're going to do the East first. We're going to try to do this in one podcast. It might end up being a long one, but what do you want from us? The Eastern Conference, the Celtics. So basically what happens is Vegas sets an over-under for the wins for the year. You can either bet over or under. House and I like to do this. What we're going to do is we're going to pick over-unders for each team. We're going to have between five and seven best bets, overs or unders that we love.

And in some cases, like with the Celtics here, there's been enough action on one side or the other that they skew the line. So the Celtics, the over-under is 59 wins, but the money on it is minus 130. So it's not an even bet. If you bet the over, you're risking $1,300 to win 1,000, if that makes sense. So when I say something like minus 130, minus 125, that means there's been action on the over.

So here are the Celtics. 59 wins over under. They won 55 last year. They're minus 140 to win the division. Minus 120 to win the conference. And I think you and I are aligned on this one as a best bet. They won 55 last year. They're getting a healthy Kyrie.

Hayward's back. Whether he can be even 80% of the guy he was two years ago, we're going to find out. He's the big X factor on this team. Tatum, year two. Jalen Brown, year three. Marcus Smart and Rozier off the bench. Rozier in a little bit of a contract, semi-contract year.

Marcus Morris coming off the bench. They actually have a real bench. They have the best coach in the league or maybe top three at worst. I would have them as the best. Cleveland is out of the division. Kawhi Leonard is back in the division, but LeBron is out of Cleveland. I cannot see a roadmap where this team doesn't win at least 63 games. I was shocked that this number was under 60. I'm removing all my Celtic fandom. I actually think this has a chance to be a really great regular season team.

Whether this will translate to the playoffs, I don't know. But the depth that they have, the scoring options they have, the ability, the lineups that they can go big or small, they can put three-point shooters out there, they can put multiple guards out there. Whatever you want, they can do it. They have the ability to have Kyrie rest for a night, third game in four nights. Kyrie take tonight off. We'll just play Terry Rozier 40 minutes,

who by the way, played was the starting guard of a team that almost been the finals last year. Just a lot of options and they're in a bad conference house. I'm making it a lock. I'm going over with our first one. I don't know how to avoid this i mean uh i don't mean to come on here in the in the in the usual ass kissing lackey kind of uh mode i mean you did give me two podcasts we've had a lot of great meals together you pay every time we're together um i just can't come up with an argument against the celtics i absolutely love the over i can't believe the number wasn't like 62 i don't get it and and just to give people you know something to really think about 59 is four more games than they won last year yeah

and they have they're they're the only weakness on the team was their offense. They were a middle-of-the-road offense. And the two guys coming back are outstanding across the board in every kind of offensive category that you want. The thing that is so compelling to me, the Celtics, 59-14 over the last two seasons against teams under 500. They don't lose to bad teams. There are a bunch of bad teams in the East. The 60 wins feels delightful. I am banging the over. I am joining you in a lock. It reminds me, and I, you know, the Warriors in 15,

I think from a talent standpoint, they're actually pretty close to that team. You know, the difference is Curry is going to end up being one of the best 20 players ever, 25, whatever it is. I don't think anyone in the Celtics roster has the ceiling that Curry has as an all-timer. But that year when the Warriors, the first year when Curry joined the team and they kind of took off and they really kind of found themselves

and they kind of relished kicking ass night after night, the Celtics team hasn't done that yet, and they haven't had that. The depth that they have, the fact that their bench is going to be really tough and be able to come in and actually swing games. Like they're going to have, they have, I would say the,

one of the top three starting fives in the league. And then you bring in the frigging Marcus's who are just these insane guys with a lot of intensity. All right. We've established. They're going to be really good. They're going to be effing great. The bummer for me is there's not a bet.

Who's going to finish with the league's best regular season record for somehow there's a million freaking nba props and that's not a bet i don't understand it because i think part of what's going to motivate this them this year is trying to get home court because that's their one chance against the warriors in the finals they have to get the home court and you the warriors will take nights off they'll do what they always do they'll talk about oh man this is such a grind it's so tough um and you know maybe they settle in the low 60s somewhere last year they're only 58 it it's been proven you have the power let's call up our pals in vegas and get get one of the books to to give up that prop the problem is going to be that's not they're not going to do it for even money. It's going to cost.

You have to pay to get that. Well, if you look at the over-under for win totals, the Celtics do not have the highest over-under. I know. Golden State does. Golden State does. Golden State is 63. So I think they would be the prohibitive favorite for home court advantage.

But I think the Celtics have a real chance to get it. Let's move on. We already talked about Celtics too much. Toronto's at 55 and a half. They're plus 250 to win the Boston's division, plus 400 for the conference. Last year, they won 59 games. They flipped to Rosen and to Kawhi Leonard. They have Oju Nabi, who I name I'll never be able to say. Healthy this year,

two years off knee surgery. They're expecting good things from him. And a new coach. They got rid of our boy Dwayne Casey. I think out of all the teams in the East, there's two teams that I think have a chance to get to 60 and it's Boston and Toronto. I would not bet on this. I still don't know if we're getting 82 from Kawhi. I'm going to go with a very half-assed, tentative, squeamish over pick, but it's too much in the air with Kawhi for him playing nine games last year. What do you have? I have the over as well. Good track record in Toronto. There is a culture of winning in Toronto.

They've won more than 55 games in two of the past three seasons. They've hit the over on this win total thing each of the past seven straight years. And I really like the core that they have. They demonstrated such a deep bench and such an ability to weave guys in kind of seamlessly. This experiment this season will be a chemistry experiment. How does Kawhi fit in? There's no reason that he cannot come in and immediately kick ass. Well, and he also has the Toronto fans. They have really good fans.

I like the Toronto fans, unless LeBron is in there just sucking their souls out. I'm with you. The TDOT's great unless LeBron's there. Then the TDOT gets very Blair Witch, just looks in the corner, turns around, and gets super scared. But Kawhi, knowing that he's in a contract year i think it's going to be a love fest for that dude this year and i actually think he'll like it i think this is the

most attention he's ever going to get oh i i already told you the the biggest factor for me the one of the great intrigues of this season is the drake effect on kawaii oh yeah we're going to find out whether or not kawaii likes to to rap because Drake is going to invite him to the studio. We're going to see so much Drake and Kawhi spending time together, sipping Ciroc or whatever. This is Drake's biggest challenge. He's been the most dominant musical artist of the last decade, but this is a much bigger challenge.

That's exactly right. I'm ready to unleash my imitation of Kawhi laughing. Go ahead. No? It was worse than that. That was too kind. I'll keep working on it. It was one of the weirdest sounds a human being has made. Slide over for Toronto.

We both think they have a chance. Kawhi plus 950 at MVP. That was Rosillo's favorite pick. There's a world in which he comes in, kicks ass, and they go 62 and 20. I don't see a world where they're in the low 50s or even the high 40s unless he gets injured. And that's possible, which is why we don't bet this. We're in agreement. It's an over.

We're both in agreement that it's an over. And we're both in agreement that it's not anything to lean into too heavily. And we haven't talked about this next one. We're still in the Atlantic Division. Philly, 54 wins is the over. Division is plus 400. I would not bet this one either. I think it's a stay away.

I'm going under on this. There's some stuff that, there's some red flags with Philly. I think people are treating them like they're a contender. Meanwhile, they won five playoff games. We haven't seen Embiid play, for them to go 55 and 27, 58 and 24 or whatever, they're going to need 21, 2200 minutes from Embiid this year.

They're going to need him to play 70 plus games. They're going to need him to play 32, 33, 34 minutes a game. I'm not saying he can't. We just haven't seen it yet. And this is year five for him. So that's a red flag. They lost Bellinelli and Iliosova. Their bench isn't as good. They're relying on Fultz in a way that makes me nervous. Their attitude is let's throw them in. We think we might have something here. I actually would bring them off the bench and ease them in as a sixth man. I don't like the spacing with Fultz

and Simmons and Embiid all at the same time. And I think there's going to be some hiccups, expectations, Embiid and Simmons as they both get more and more attention. Just some tiny red flags, nothing major other than Embiid's health, but enough to make me think low 50s, high 40s for them. What do you have? That seems right to me. Until somebody can tell us how many games and beads gonna play the sixers last year were 40 and 22 when mb played more than 10 minutes in a game yeah that

translates into a 52 win pace wow that makes sense to me that's 62 games that he plays in that's 52 wins that's under yeah by the way I'm surprised to hear that I would have guessed when he played that they would be on a pace that would be higher than this 44 54 win over under so even when he played they were under that pace man I'm starting to think this might be a lock I got to think about it more I'm not I'm not calling a lock because every one of the the points you observe could go in the other direction. Embiid could play 2,100 minutes this season. He could, of any player that's prepared to make a leap,

he could make a leap. I'm going to look at his odds. I haven't yet for MVP. I have them for you right now. And by the way, I think this is a better bet than they're ever under. He's 15-1 to win the MVP, and there this is a better bet than they're ever under. He's 15 to one to win the MVP. And there's a world in which he plays 2,500 minutes. He plays 77 games. He puts up some early Orlando Shaq season. Like he, he has like 28 and 12 and Philly wins 58 games.

And he's the MVP. It's conceivable. I don't think it'll happen, but that's conceivable. 15 to one. I like that. That's the way that I would bet this. You know, I, I, this is this number 54 is a stay away to me.

So where you go under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

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under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under,

under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, under, Isova and Bellinelli with Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala. I'm not calling that an upgrade. Next one's Brooklyn. 32 wins. Let's brush over this one because I have no effing clue what's going on with them. They have some players that are like, Sean Marks is doing a great job. Sean Marks

has really rebuilt Brooklyn. Let's give them hope again. Why won't you trade Karis LeVert for Jimmy Butler? Is that really on the table? Can you do that? Well, here's the thing. Can I trade everyone on my team for Jimmy Butler and just have Jimmy Butler and free

agents, but cap space. This is the first time since 2013. Yes. 2013 Bill Simmons. Yes. That the Brooklyn Nets are going to enter the off season with their own pick with their own first round pick. That's either their pick or they don't have to pick swap it,

which is how they lost the Tatum pick. Yeah, they have their own pick, so we're aligned. I'm going under because it makes sense for them to be not good this year. If they're ever going to tank, this is their incentive to tank. The funny thing is Kenny Atkinson has them playing hard, and none of these guys, Jared Allen, D'Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie, they're not going to like, they're not rollovers. So this was interesting. I was looking at the make playoffs bets,

Cleveland out of the playoffs. There's a spot open for the eighth seed. And the candidates are like Charlotte who will get to Detroit, maybe even Cleveland without LeBron, little tiny junior Ewing theory moment, or somebody has to be the eight seed. We can't enter the playoffs with seven teams. Brooklyn's playoff odds, Brooklyn to make the playoffs is only plus 285. That tells me Vegas thinks there's a world in which they actually make a run for it and try to be an eight seat.

I think that would be ludicrous. That's just a terrible move. Just bottom out for one more year, have your cap space, go nuts. So let's go slight under on this, but I don't feel good about it. Sure.

Agreed. Next one is the Knicks. I have no feel for this one either. 29 and a half over is the number. Plus 115 if you go over. That means everyone's banging the under on this. They are plus 650 to make the playoffs. I would guess we won't see Porzingis if he's not ready until January, February, and they decide they want to tank.

Very excited to watch Kevin Knox this year. I got to say, I was shocked by how high this over was, and it kind of threw me off. I would have assumed it was 25, 26. They're basically saying the Knicks might go 30 and 52. Fizdale, I don't know. No, they're not. What are you confused by?

They won 29 games last season. zinger is out until february and maybe the whole year games against the raptors the celtics and the sixers that's their division yeah it's not gonna be terrible and they should be terrible that's what makes sense what about fizzdale you're not worried about him trying to win games who's he gonna win with tim hardaway jr right we're gonna see a ton of mitchell robinson and kevin knox which makes all the sense in the world their very best move is to lose as many games as possible to add one more enticing chip to the pot uh by way of the draft and then try and lure a free agent or two in. I mean, I'm so all over.

Go ahead. No, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to interrupt you. The funny thing is, I agree with you. I think the Knicks fans will be up for it because now the Durant carrot is being dangled and that's all they're focused on. So if you're ever going to tank, this is the perfect year.

Between Kevin Knox, who we all think is going to be good, I'm excited to watch him. Between him and the Durant possibility, this is the perfect year for them to tank. Tank away. Who cares? Tank away. That's right. Here's my thought. Instead of buying out Joakim

Noah or whatever stare down is going on right now, I'd bring him back and play him. Oh, you're out of shape and you have bad knees? You're playing 40 minutes tonight. Let's run this dude in the ground. He could help us tank. Washed up Joe Kim Noah is their biggest asset this year. That dude should be out there. Guess who else should be out there all the time? Frankie Nitalikina, who is by all accounts, one of the worst offensive point guards we've had. Maybe not Quinn Buckner bad, but kind of one maybe Lindsey Hunter level. I would have him out there.

I would be running pick and rolls with Frankie, Frankie Nicotine and Joe Kim Noah. That's my go to play. Bring him out. These these names that you're saying in this rationale, I don't I had this written down in bright red under. It's all caps. It's an all caps under so terrible lock that's a that's a joe house lock all right i can't i don't know if that's a lock for me yet but i'm going under as well all right central division this is going to be a lock for me this is going to be a pull my pants down and just pee in the air. I'm so excited. Luck.

It's like my eight year old kid. This is, uh, we're at Tom's bachelor party in succession right now. And I'm just so excited. I'm just so excited because, because I met a girl and blah, blah, blah.

It was hot. It was hot. Don't eat the soup. I'm so, I was feeling so hot right now, Joe House. Just hot. Milwaukee's over-under is 48 wins. They won 45 last year with Forrest Gump as their coach.

They traded for Eric Bledsoe midway through the season. They fired Jason Kidd. They brought in Forrest Gump. They had Jabari Parker playing on one leg, who was just furious the whole time that Giannis had stolen the franchise from him. They played with a really slow pace, which Kevin O'Connor broke down perfectly

in his piece about Giannis and how he might make the leap. Everything, everything, everything is pointing to the Bucs making a leap this year. Everything is pointing to a possible MVP season for Giannis, which is why he's my favorite bet at 5-1. Last year, he was 27-10-5. If they increase the pace, all of a sudden,

that might start to look like 30-12-6, which is MVP numbers. They added Brooke Lopez that I really liked. I don't know why the Lakers didn't sign him. Ilya Sova, at least you know he can be a rotation guy and be semi-reliable. And I got to be honest, I think this team could land in the mid-50s. Coach Bud is a real coach.

That guy won 60 games with the Hawks. That is not a joke. Not a lot of coaches have won 60. I am making this a simply safe lock. Wow. My house is locked because I have simply safe. Yeah, they didn't even know they were in this podcast. Simply safe.

How about that? We should have the simply safe lock of the condo. It's a simply safe with two I's lock. Two I's as in win with two I's. Win over 48. What do you have? I don't have anything to say i'm joining you i'm joining the lock i think that milwaukee is loaded for bear one interesting thing to me i think you can still get them around 20 to 1 what are they to uh to win the oh 15 to 1 to win the conference that's kind of interesting to me well even more interesting than that bucks no that they're less than 15 to 1 to win the conference but bucks warriors

a bucks warriors finals right now is 12 to 1 bucks lakers what do you think the odds are for that a thousand to one no all right you. I hate doing this with you sometimes. I mean, it's ridiculous. Bucks-Lakers, it's not going to be the finals. It's 140 to 1. It's not going to be the finals. 140 to 1. It might as well be 1,000 to 1.

Giannis versus LeBron. Completely unrealistic to you. Completely unrealistic. I can't overstate how unrealistic that is. We're going to get to LeBron in the second half of this podcast. And I just really hope he's taking notes. I really hope he has heard. I'm going to save it,

but I really hope he's listening to the narrative of he's thrown away this year. Nah, he's in the West. It's over. Who said that? People are saying, people are saying it.

I got a lock Milwaukee lock 48 wins lock over next one and you and you're in for a lock too i am i joined you on that lock i have three locks already we talked about six teams and i have three locks this is like what it's like when we used to go to strip joints 20 years ago you would just immediately get your locks out and then you'd just be ready to go home. In Indiana. I know all my money was gone. Indiana, 48 wins. People are very excited about Tyreek Evans for some reason.

Oh, no. That is the opener. Did you watch any last night? I watched the second game. I didn't see a lot of the first game. I think our own Mark Titus is the esteemed expert on whether or not a player is fat. So I'd like to get his input on this. Oh, that's great. I wish we could call him. Who is it? Who's the player? Tyreek Evans. Oh, he looked fat?

He looked fat to me. I me i like the way you look will you text titus and see if if tell him we made him the fat expert and we want to know if tyreek's fat if he thinks tyreek evans is fat all right we'll get a live update from titus on this i you know there's some there's some positive stats for him, like his scoring efficiency, the fact that his three-point shooting is actually pretty, not even sneaky good. It's been openly good. And watching that Indiana team, how broken they were last year and how easy it was to just take out Oladipo, putting three guys on him,

and there was no plan B. I get all the reasons. Him and McDermott, I don't think that's enough of an upgrade. I think the East got better. I don't feel like they're better unless this whole Miles Turner, I'm in great shape. I'm ready to be the sidekick for Oladipo. That's the X factor. That's why I don't feel that strongly about it either way. 48 actually feels like the right number. I'm going to go just a shade under, under just a hair but i don't feel strongly about it they're also plus 130 to win the division i should mention as well we finally have a

disagreement okay great i'm taking the over i think they're going to be 550 win teams in the the east this year as a direct result of there being five exorcable x x rook oh god excreble execrable it's like having trump trying to trying to pronounce anonymous um five horrendous teams in the east right okay this year so i think they're gonna be be five 51 teams. I have Indiana in there at 50 wins. I think they're surprisingly deep. I like the Kyle O'Quinn signing. I think I like that one too. I like that. I did that as well.

And you know, I, you have to just have an opinion on miles Turner. And I think that, um, the commitment to getting himself healthy in the way that he did, I'll, I'll go ahead and be a glass half full kind of guy about him making a small leap because he regressed last year.

Let's be honest. That team won, you know, however many, 48 games last season. Yeah. And he was not like a huge part of it. It wasn't because he made a giant leap. It was all Victor Oladipo. He was pretty up and down. I liked him for 50 games.

I guess my question with him, I'm still not 100% sure what he does. You've heard me say this on pods many times. What I mean by that, obviously he does stuff. He's out there. He's getting points and rebounds. What's his elite skill?

What is his one thing? What is his one thing? What's the one thing that makes him special? On paper, he looks great. But then you watch that Cleveland series and you can't really post him up. He's not this amazing above-the-rim-all-the-time athlete. He's not an amazing rebounder he's not an incredible defender he's just kind of solid so i so even if he's in the greatest shape of his life i still i i guess i need to see what that means because i'm not sure that's going to help him uh

demand to be double teamed in the low post you know we got an got an update. Well, I'm not going crazy on my selection. It's a small over for me. A small over. I like them around 50. All right. Way more important than this. I have a small under. Way more important.

Mark Titus has an update. Is Tyreek Evans fat? I say no. I think he's just got a fat face and his beard does him no favors. Wow. Okay. Great.

Real-time analysis from Mark Titus. You can hear him on the One Shining podcast. Next one up, Detroit. New coach, Tame Van Gundy, by the way. Great. Real-time analysis from Mark Titus. You can hear him on the One Shining podcast. Next one up, Detroit. New coach, Stan Van Gundy, by the way. The best trade of the year was Stan Van Gundy going from Detroit to ESPN. I like him on ESPN. I enjoyed having him on yesterday. Great trade, ESPN. Great trade. He's sensational on TV. They didn't even have to take a bad contract. Yeah, he's good. That was a great what if for me. It was almost me, him, Magic Johnson and Michael Wilbon that first year I was on countdown. And then David Stern stepped in and basically blocked the hire.

This happened. People think like, I mentioned this on a pod five times. I don't know what these sports blogs do. Like what, what makes good content? Like go research this. This 100% happened. He was signed. He had a deal. Stan Van Gundy's talked about this. And Stern was like, I don't want two Van Gundys and just squashed it. He ended it. And Jalen ended up getting added to the show like nine days before our first show. And I remember sending John Wildhack, who was the quote unquote person in charge of content at ESPN at the time. I'll use the quotes very small. But I was like, man, are we going to have like a rehearsal?

Is like with me, Jalen Wilbaugh, Magic, are we going to rehearse? And he emailed back, it's not how you start, it's how you finish. And I was thinking like, I don't know that much about TV, but I'm pretty sure it's how you start. Pretty sure first impressions matter on television. Maybe a rehearsal will help. Anyway, John Wildhack is now an athletic director. So that's my ESPN story of the day.

Detroit, 38 and a half wins over under. What do you think? They caught a buzz. Vegas drove this up. It started much lower than this. And for some reason, it's all the way up. They had 39 wins last season. Yeah.

I think they're right there sort of talent-wise. Not a whole ton changed. Their expected win total last year based on their point differential was 41. And they ended up at 39 so both of those numbers are above 38 and a half I'm gonna go slight over I think they're the eighth playoff team in the east it's just hard to to point to anything on that team to get excited about you mean Reggie Jackson Reggie Bullock Stanley Johnson Blake Griffin Andre Drummond does it get you excited do you feel like Blake Griffin's roast battle drove up their odds because he was so impressive battling Jeff

Ross? That was an incredible roast, by the way. All props to Blake Griffin. It may be his singular best. He has a career after basketball. And honestly, it might have been his most impressive performance of the season. Yeah, at least three years. I'm going to go under. I don't feel good about it. I'm not betting on it. Okay. I'm not convinced Blake Griffin

can play 82 games anymore. And once you remove him from that hypothetical depth chart, it's a really mediocre team. You mean a 500 team? I think it's worse than mediocre. I also really don't see how Drummond and Blake Griffin make sense together on the same basketball team in 2019.

It's certainly not where the league is heading. I don't think they do. This is why Stan McGunny is on television right now. Yeah, that's true. It's a great point. But having said all that, they only have to win the same number of games as last year. And LeBron James doesn't play in their conference anymore. Make playoffs for them is minus 175, which I was very surprised by.

Yeah. That means Vegas thinks they are the eighth seed. I disagree. I'm going to give you my eighth seed a little bit later. Next one is Cleveland. Cleveland won 50 games last year. Their over-under is 31, minus 125, which means we've had a lot of action on the over.

They are plus 450 to make the playoffs. I got to say, like if you at gunpoint, Detroit or Cleveland, I actually would probably pick Cleveland because of the infrastructure. I have not been, Colin Sexton,

I've watched him a couple of times in the preseason. He seems like you're away to me and I know they're going to have to play him. That's the main reason I was thinking about the under on this, but I'm not going to go under. I actually think they're in the mid-30s,

and this number seems to load me. They have a lot of guys. They have a lot of veterans who know how to play basketball. Kevin Love, who is now going to get a lot of crunch time, obviously. I think he's a really good offensive player. I actually thought one of their mistakes the last couple years was not giving him more crunch time opportunities. Tristan Thompson, J.R., Korver,

all these guys we watched in the finals, these are all professionals at least. I don't know. For whatever reason, I'm leaning over. What do you think, Hess? No, with good reason. The reason you just mentioned, that's a good reason to lean over. I'm leaning over. What do you think, Hess? With good reason. The reason you just mentioned. That's a good reason to lean over.

I'm taking the over as well. I think it's just when you have that many guys that have been professional basketball players that have been to the finals consecutive years, the way that Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, and Kyle Korver have, those guys just know how to win basketball games. They're not going to be cowed by any situation if they're healthy. George Hill is a nice professional

basketball player. He doesn't excite you. He was afraid to win a game and he cost us an interesting NBA finals last year with that missed free throw. But for the purposes of getting to 32 wins, that's a competent basketball team.

So there's a baseline of competence. It was plus 360 for them to make the playoffs. Here's what changed my mind on them a little bit. They had the Celtics-Cavs game preseason. I watched it because I love the Celtics team more than just about anything. And the Cavs had, like like a little swagger to them. I was surprised. It led to the J.R. Smith-Marcus Smart altercation,

which was replayed endlessly on social. But it made me think like, I think this is kind of a proud Cavs team, right? They made the finals four straight years. Everyone has completely written them off. And meanwhile, you know, they have a bunch of dudes on the team who are expensive for a reason. At some point, somebody thought they were competent. Kevin Love, I still feel like is like the 27th best player in the league.

He's in the top 30. He's probably closer to the bottom of the top 30. But it's weird to me that they are eight wins lower than Detroit because I'm not sure there's a difference from a talent standpoint. At least we know with Cleveland, they have some pride and some chemistry. So I'm going over on that. It's not a lock for me though. Last one. Yeah, I'm with you. Last one is the Bulls, 29 F wins, plus 450 to make the playoffs for them. Minus 125 for the over, which means people are banging the over. Wow.

I think this team is going to be a defensive shit show. That's my expert opinion. It's a proven fact. Yeah. I'm not really going out on a limb, but if somebody scores 70 this year, this would be my number one candidate to be the other team in the game that where somebody scored 70.

I would lock that. I would like Chicago as a minus 300 favorite for who is going to give up a 70 point game to an NBA player. I would say Chicago is the minus 300 favorite. They were in the bottom five last year in both offense and defense. Other than that, not bad. Yeah.

The division that we just went through kind of a murderer's row. Yeah. If both Indiana and Milwaukee are around that 50 game win and Detroit is around 40, we think Cleveland's going to be mid 30s as well I don't know if I'd use the word murderers row I just think you know Milwaukee and Indiana I'm just saying I wouldn't use murderers row okay Cleveland and the traitor in that division come on that's a good point all right fair enough fair enough there's a little bit of an overstatement ah you're excited you're exuberant well I just think that that uh they're the right move for them is to lose it

doesn't make any sense for them to go win they need to get one more great asset to to to join they have a real nice young core i said bad things last year about uh Finnish Bargani. Is it a real nice core? Is it a real nice core? They could have a young, a decent, nice core because I think Wendell Carter Jr. is going to be good. I think Markkinen could be good. If you add one more piece, one of these Duke kids to those

two guys, now you have a nice young core. I'm out on Levine. I'm out on Dunn. You can't be out on Levine because they just on Dunn I'm rooting for Jabari they just paid Levine they paid him like 20 million a year Jabari's making 20 they're paying Levine and Jabari like 40 million combined

why are they doing that? why are they doing that? why are you doing that Chicago? I love Wendell Carter Jr. and I think he will be I think he's going to start I think he's going to start. I think he's going to be heard of, heard from. I love this draft.

I think it's going to be a really memorable draft 15 years from now. And he's one of my favorite guys in it. And he's also a grown-ass man already, which is amazing. He's just a big dude. He did a little ringer thing with us. But one of those guys who's big already but you still know he's going to add 25 pounds of muscle over the next couple years

I just like that guy I think he's a home run pick for them but they're I just don't like the team they put together and I think the East is better than people realize so I'm going under I wouldn't bet on it I only have two locks so far for Chicago.

Oh, coming up, we're going to talk about your favorite team, the Wizards of Washington. But first, hey, we have a sponsor. You'll be excited for this one, House. I want to talk about the Action Network, which is run by my old friend, Chad Millman. So they have a free app. I had no idea. Yeah.

Chad Millman's been on this pod, not this pod, but the other pod. Well, not only do I love Chad, I subscribe to the Action Network. So do I. Out of my own money. If I'd known that this was a thing, I wouldn't have paid for it. I would have got it for free. Yeah. Chad, comp us.

What are you doing? So the Action Network has a free app. You sign up, you can put your bets and they can track the bets. They also have really good win probability. For NBA, it's good. It's kind of good to have everything tracked. Like on the BS podcast, I went one in three last week.

I'm 500 for the season. I don't know the exact number because I don't track it. I should have put them all on the Action Network. Download the free app. You can follow my picks every week. I'm putting them in this week. I did actionnetwork.com slash bill. We should put in there. What? These over-under selections. We should put those. I have three NFL picks this week. I think I have Jacksonville minus three at Dallas. I think Dallas stinks. I think the Clapper is going to get fired and I don't think their offense can score 20 points against Jacksonville and Bortles will not be at that bad two weeks ago. So I like that one.

I like the bears minus three in Miami. I'm all in on this bears team against bad or mediocre offenses. I think their defenses can win single-handedly. And then I have a parlay that's just about – I'm sorry, I have the Bears in a parlay with the Rams. That's just about even odds. The Bears are minus 200. The Rams are like minus 380 in Denver. But if you add them together, it's perfect.

And then the third one I have straight up, Cincinnati minus two at home against pittsburgh what do you think of those picks joe house um i like uh three of the four i'm not gonna tell you which one i don't like because i still have to make my picks who are you gonna make the picks for this is the podcast oh this is the pics podcast, it's just like... I'm not prepared for NFL yet. You don't have to be prepared. I'm just asking what picks you liked. Oh, I really liked the Bengals this week at home. Me too.

Do you like my Bears, Rams, Tees, or Parlay? Bears have to win in Miami. Rams have to win in Denver. That's it. Nothing else. No points. Nothing. Home Dogs went 4-0 last week which means you want

the regression that's natural to come home dogs this season are 15 and 7 yeah I have both those stats off they're always 15 and 7 after five weeks I think that's right so they they oh and they tend to end up just a little above 500 so a regression is coming. Yeah. That would be my concern is Miami at home as a frisky home dog potentially against the Bears because Trubisky, never trust Trubisky. I don't trust Trubisky.

It's a Bears defense bet. That's it. So listen, go to actionnetwork.com slash bill. You can get all these odds. They have a really good Friday column that I like too

about with all the odds and percentages and stuff in there. So there we go. All right. Back to the NBA bets. We're going to the Southeast. We're on a strike. How long have we gone, Kyle? Like 50 minutes? We are at 59 minutes. Oh man. This is going to be like a two and a half hour pod. All right. Listen, got to give the people what they want sometimes. Washington. I'd like to order some food. we'll get it up we'll be fine

45.5 wins for your wizards Dwight Howard strong preseason he's already seen two back specialists and I think he's getting wheeled around in one of those things like the little bicycle wheelchair things so he'll be fine John Wall

is he fat? is he kind of fat? is he a little fat?'s john wall's deal all right go ahead uh i just wanted to share this this factoid speaking on the action network yeah matt moore did a lot of hard work i'm going to give a shout out to matt more of the action network since we're pimping them i've enjoyed his uh comprehensive overview of of win totals this season, he shares this factoid. Teams that Dwight Howard has been on have hit the under in seven of the past eight seasons.

The one season that his team went over was the 2015-2016 Houston Rockets. And the reason that they hit the over is because Dwight only played in half the games. He played in 41 games. That's my pathway to get to the over for my Washington almost bullets. The Weezards. I like 46 wins for them.

Okay. I like that. It's a, it's a, you have no info at all. It's just, I just like it. Cause Dwight Howard and regression. That's your, that's your no info at all. It's just how I just like it because Dwight Howard and regression. That's your logic?

No, not regression. They won 43 games last year with John Wall missing half the games. No, I'm saying that Dwight Howard is the Dwight Bolivirus. This is actually the year he won't be the Dwight Bolivirus. Is that your case? No, I'm saying he could be the Dwight Bolivirus, but he can't infect the team if he's not playing

and it's possible he won't be playing because he already has a butt injury the most Dwight Howard in Washington almost bullets injury ever

Dwight Howard has an injured buttocks 45 and a half this was one of the toughest ones for me yeah I still think Bradley Beal can get a little bit better.

With good reason. I still kind of like your team. Felt like they underachieved last year. They did. And the division's not good. Just not. You get Orlando and Atlanta in your division. And Charlotte.

Well, I kind of like Charlotte. I think they stink, but that's good what most hurts my feelings is that you read matt moore's over under piece and didn't come up with your own ideas in your own work so you have to live with that talking about i just shared a nugget i have nuggets all over the place you want to read other people's runners i'd like to come up with my own ideas um i do have my own ideas i was prepared to pick the almost bullets on the over anyways i'm not doing any glass half empty bs with my own team they haven't played a single game yet john wall this is the season this is really a career defining season for him he's either going to show

up and be awesome and not be uh an underminer or a sabotager. He's going to somehow through, I don't know what kind of osmosis, maybe he can go to business meetings with Ted Leonsis and see what a leader looks like. But this is it. He either has to show up and lead this team and make Dwight Howard and his other teammates better or not and leave be traded. He must be traded if he's not going to come in. And, and, and if they start off slow,

I think this trading wheel start turning. He needs to leave. This is a nice window into your psyche because I've known you for 30 years now. And there were a couple of girls you just stayed with too long. And we would go, we'd have drinks, we'd talk about it. And then like another six months would pass. And now you're married,

but now John Wall has become that girlfriend you're staying with too long. You should move. You should break up mentally with John Wall is my advice. You just heard me say so. I'm ready. I'm there. I finally talked myself into it. I'm ready. I'm there. I finally talked myself into it. I'm going under.

There are other teams in the East I like more. It feels like a 44 and 38 or 45 and 37. 46 feels ambitious for the team to have. Next one is Miami. This is tough. Miami's 42 and a half. We have no idea if they're going to trade for... If they're going to get

Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and crap. No, protected pick no idea if they're going to trade for, if they're going to get Jimmy Butler for Josh Richardson and crap. No, protected pick. Like, obviously, that's going to be worth five or six wins. I can't believe there's this much debate

about Josh Richardson. If I'm running Miami and Minnesota's like, look, here's what we want. We want Josh Richardson. We want top five protected pick and bam out of Bayo. I'd be like, okay, done.

Let's call it in the league. Really? I get Jimmy Butler. I don't have to give up anyone who's going to make an all-star team. Okay, good. Let's call it in. I can't believe that Riley hasn't gotten this done yet.

Just pay. Just go get Jimmy Butler. I don't care if he's crazy. I think this is Tibbs. I don't think it's Riley. So you think Tibbs is just stringing him along but doesn't actually want to trade for him? Yes, that's exactly what I think. A thousand percent. Because Miami doesn't have that really creme de la creme first round pick to offer that makes it just too know, just too good an offer to not take from Minnesota. Well, I like the over there for the division plus 180 Washington's minus 160 for the division. I think they're an intriguing division pick too. If you've just banking on that, this Butler thing is a catastrophe and he ends up going there.

I just like some of the guys on the team. I don't care if Waiters Island is on fire right now and there's pestilence and just people throwing up all over the island and things are going badly. I just like some of the guys. I just find it hard to believe Spolster is going to go under 500, which is basically what this bet is saying. Spolster has no track record of having bad seasons. Here are the competing factors.

Miami, they've only won 41 games or less three times in the past 15 years. So this is a place with a culture of winning. We talked about institutional winning, culture of winning, institutional leadership. Miami has it. They don't need their individual players to be leaders because the franchise provides the leadership that the guys need. The only thing that I think can come up with, and I'm going to go over with you, I'm going to join you on the over because I think 43 wins is eminently reasonable.

The one thing that can sabotage this is hassan whiteside because they can't just bench him and not have him play because he's dissatisfied and play you know for with 14 guys they can't so here's my counter that i think i think miami is poised for some sort of trade and obviously they felt the same way if they're trying to get Jimmy Butler the last two weeks. It's a roster that is somewhere like a smidge over 500, but I think there's a lot of different ways they can improve it. And they're just smart and they always strike when there's a chance to add somebody who's really good. They have different types of pieces that are good in a trade. Like Drogage is somebody you can put in a trade to upgrade to a slightly better point guard. They have Justice Winslow, who I think is entering his restricted

free agency year. He's tradable. Bam's tradable. Josh Richardson, people like. 10 million seems like a really- He's tradable. He's tradable. 10 million seems like a really fair price for me for him. They have their pick. They can kind of move around. They don't have their pick in 2020, but Olenek's contract is not awful. The only contract they have that's untradable is Waiters.

Yeah, he's helpful. And the thing is, the salary cap's $100 million, and there's only 30 good players in the league. At some point, Kelly Olenek for $10 million is actually not the worst thing in the world so i i like the over i think they can make their team better yeah you just talked me and i'm not um going to suggest that either one of us make a lock on this but you know what i did i got out my highlighter pen yeah i'm using a yellow highlighter pen for all of these ones that where i I'm going to bet my own, uh, harder in cash. This is one because I a thousand percent subscribe to the idea that they're going to make a trade over the course

of the season. There's some sort of, they have three for one, they have three for one, four for two potential. And the key thing to remember with them, they can't make this team better with they're not in the 2019 free agent game because they've already spent all their money. So they're in the same situation Houston is in with Butler. If you can figure out how to get Butler, it's really your only chance to be in that kind of free agent possible all-star game.

And I think they're going to eventually strike for one of these guys. All right, So Charlotte, Charlotte's 35 and a half minus one 25. So there's been some action on it. Plus one 30 to make the playoffs 15 to one to win the division. They have a new coach, James Borrego. Got rid of Steve Clifford. Starting five,

Kemba, Batum, Kid Gilchrist, the ageless Marvin Williams, the already bald Cody Zeller. Coming off the bench, Jeremy Lamb, Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, Frank Kaminsky, Bismack Biambo

I even like Dwayne Bacon a little bit and then the not ageless Tony Parker because I think he's I can't do it I like this team I watched them in a preseason game Miles Bridges

has a little like steal of the, out of the top 10 of all the guys after the top 10 potential. You know how I feel about Monk. I just think he had the year from hell last year. I am still a believer. Kemba in a contract year, potential to either flip him or do something. Their big guys are all serviceable. None of them are bad. Biambo has his holes and he's completely overpaid, but he's not awful on the right team. We've seen him succeed in certain situations. We've seen Cody Zeller succeed.

Kaminsky's not a train wreck. I like Nick Batum. He's one of those zigzag guys. He's like one of those quarterbacks. You never know what to expect year to year. I like the fact that they changed their coach. I like the fact that the All-Star game is coming there in February. And I like the fact that somebody in the East is going to come out of nowhere.

We saw it last year with Indiana. It happens every effing year. There's one team like, whoa, wow, they're 22 and 12. That's crazy. I think it's going to belotte i'm going over and i'm going lock 35 and a half how about that joe house wow yeah yeah well i'm about winning are you about winning your house because i like to win you you effing need me you need me uh all i have to do for you to win your bet is to do what they did the previous two seasons, which is win 36 games, which is why the over here costs 125. Great.

I'm paying it. Here's the thing. They have guys. If you go through their whole rotation, they have a guy. Kemba is at least somebody who can create his own shot for them in crunch time. They have a bunch of guys who know who they are. You know, they even kid Gilchrist who I'm still not, I'm not cutting him out yet. I still feel like he's going to have a moment because he's so good defensively and he's a good, and he's a good kid. He's not that old.

He's still only like 24, 25. I just, I like the talent on this team. It's, it's not God that there's nobody who's overrated. There's nobody who got paid, who doesn't give a shit. Even somebody like Biambo who's overpaid. Like, I think he's a good teammate. I just think he was in a bad situation in Orlando. He's on a weird team with no point guard. I like this team. Well, I have a nugget for you yeah uh two nuggets they're the expected win total last season based on their point differential they should have won 42 games they only won 36 but here's the nugget in the last two seasons they've been in 15 games decided by three points or fewer let me ask you a question yeah 15 games decided by three points or fewer how many of those games do you think the charlotte hornets have won over the past i vaguely remember or fewer. Let me ask you a question. Yeah. 15 games decided by three points or fewer.

How many of those games do you think the Charlotte Hornets have won over the past? I vaguely remember this stat. It's like two and 13, something like that. Actually one in 14. Yeah. Very good. Yeah. Yeah.

So you with me? Did I talk you into it? I'm not joining you on the lock. I am joining you on the over because as we observed at the very beginning, all I have to do is win the exact same number of games as last year and you win. I'm going to tell you another secret, Joe House. I'm betting their division at 15-1.

I think it's a good bet. I think anyone can win this division. Not Orlando and Atlanta, but the other three. 15-1. 15-1 is stupid. I do like to make playoffs at plus 130. I'm not joining you on 15-1. Well, don't. It's disrespectful to my team. Lose money.

Orlando is 31 wins, 35 to one to win the division, plus 425 to make the playoffs. The good news, there's good news. They actually have, they made two solid draft picks in a row. Oh, that's funny. solid draft picks in a row. That's all. That's funny. Let me ask you a question. Do you know how long ago it was?

Listen to this team that they had. Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, and, you know, the jury's still out on Alfred Payton, but he was on this team. They couldn't be patient with that team. That team was, that was who they had two years ago. Well, we loved Oladipo and they ruined him and did everything you could possibly do wrong with,

with him and suck the life out of them. And then traded them for one year, Serge Ibaka morons. I like this team. I still think they're going to suck. Agree. Agree. I like,

I like Bamba. I like Agree. I like, I like Bamba. I like Jonathan Isaac. I like Aaron Gordon. There's no earthly scenario where you can play those three guys together. They have the worst point guards in basketball. To me, it's like inexcusable to have bad point guards in 2018. There's a million point guards.

Like Atlanta was trying to trade Dennis Schroeder. And where the fuck was Orlando in that? So 31 to me, I think the East, again, is a little better than people think. And this is almost a lock for me. I need to think about it a little more. But definitely, definitely, definitely under for me. Yeah, I'm joining you on the under. I don't know.

They'll need a shot of lightning from the sky. Poor Kevin Clark. They need something. No, I don't feel bad for him. They need some kind of extraterrestrial event to come visit them and create the opportunity for them to change the narrative there. But they're just a 30-win team staring me in the face. So I'm joining you on the under. I'm not giving them as a lock.

I feel 25 and 57. My next one is a lock. The Atlanta Hawks, 23 and a half wins is the over. It's even, so there's been a little action on the under. If you think they can make the playoffs, you can win $1,800 on a $100 bet. So my advice would be not to do that. Here's the case. Other than the fact that they're going to be actively and aggressively

and intentionally terrible. They don't have a coach who's trying to F up their draft position like they did last year with Coach Bud, who won a no part of a tanking situation. Everyone's on the same page now in this organization. And here's what they want. They want Trey Young to play a lot of minutes and they want to lose games and they want to make the lottery again

and get a top five pick and hope that Dallas does the same. And now they have Trey Young and two top seven picks or whatever it is. That's what they want. The agenda is very clear. 23 and a half. All they have to do is clear 23 and a half all they have to do is go

23 and 59 or worse and I'm in and I also think they can lock down the number one pick or the ping pong balls we take about 20 and 62 I don't think anyone in the west is going to get to 62 losses

this is a lock for me, Joe house. I am lacking. I am joining Lena under. I've been sitting patiently to, to, to join you here with an unbridled enthusiasm and exuberance. Yeah.

The interesting bet to me is what's Trey Young's rookie of the year odds. Oh, well, we'll do that one on the Cousins South pod. We'll talk about it. Oh, against all odds. We're going to talk about rookie of the year. That's where the value is to me. Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah. We're going to talk Trey Young on South pod.

Woo! So, yeah, under. Let's keep going. We have too many teams left. Keep going. We have to get to the West. It's only been four hours newsflash everybody atlanta's gonna suck they're gonna be really bad bet the under so i have for my locks atlanta under 23 and a half in the east uh milwaukee 48 wins over and boston 59 wins over you had those three but you also had one more what was your fourth one Toronto uh the Knicks

oh the Knicks you have the Knicks under 29 and a half yeah and you're hoping for a Joaquin Noah slash Frank Nitali Nitalikinka doesn't seem like too much to ask for yeah you're hoping for a little pick and roll action with them. Quick break to talk about our friends at Proper Cloth. Finding a dress shirt that fits is nearly impossible. Something is always off, be it the collar

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Gift code Simmons. Western Conference. We're going to the Southwest Division first. Houston, 56 and a half wins. They went 65 last year. This is a slap in the face. This is a big bottle of water just being thrown in the face of Daryl Morey,

who I think has hit the over pretty much every year this decade, except for maybe one year. Every year, now he's in the classic nobody believes in us situation. There's some real Jimmy Butler trade potential. And yet it kind of seems like the right win total for me. 56 and a half seems fair.

And I don't know what to do. I'm going to follow your lead on this one, Joe House. It's a slight over to me. Just because you're talking about an eight great an eight game uh uh decline which seems like the right number for the direction they went um defensively the the losses of ariza and mabamute and i just i don't know enough i'll have to find daryl in a quiet moment when i can uh pick his brain and understand sort of the cap dynamics and the contract stuff but um defensively he was so great on the perimeter last year and they they made the decision that they couldn't afford to keep him um the the real

loss to me for the rockets and the reason that that um 57 feels like the right number the real loss to me for the Rockets and the reason that, that, um, 57 feels like the right number. The real loss is, is, uh, how do you say Jeff Bezelic? Bezelic? Sure. The defensive coordinator retired.

Yeah. And you know, that, that's, that's the, the loss of those two human beings plus the guy that they, they entrusted with. They were pretty damn good defensive efficiency-wise last season.

They were really able to compensate for what Harden, because Harden's a 50-50 guy. Only half of the times down the court is he going to actually play any defense. But they were able to compensate for that. The reason to go under 56.5 would be a distrust and mistrust of Chris Paul's health. That would be the reason to go under, but I like them for a slight over. I like them for the over as well. And as you were talking, I remembered how good Paul and Harden were together in the regular season when they were just both out there. And the infrastructure,

you were talking about the Spurs infrastructure, and we're about to get to them. I actually think Houston is more of an infrastructure right now just because they have a specific style. They know what they're doing. They're really good at it. Harden is still a top five guy in his prime. And I would just be surprised if they

I don't think they'll win 65. I think they're going to drop off. But to me, it feels like a drop off to 58 and 24 type range. You know, it's tough to lose 10 wins in a season. That's just a lot. All right, San Antonio. It was 45 and a half wins just a few short days ago. And then Murray went down.

And it dropped two and a half wins to 43, which is easily by far, no question about it, the lowest number. We've been doing this over under pod for, I don't know, nine years, 10 years. We were doing this shit when people were terrified of gambling. Kudos to us. 43 wins for the Spurs. Did you see the NBA? You can go on NBA.com and play an over-under game. Yeah.

We should be getting royalties and all this shit. Yeah, give us royalties. So, what do you have, House? You still like the over, don't you? So, the thing is, the over still has them outside of the playoffs and i think as much as it hurts my feelings to say this i think they're going to miss the playoffs but they won 47 games last year with kawaii only playing nine and you know how how big a drop-off between Murray, what you lost by Murray's – the gains he made last season and Derek White who showed a little bit of signs, a couple signs, still have all those veterans with pride. This is Pau Gasol's last stand.

This is Rudy Gay's last stand. They want to prove. DeMar DeRozan is going to try and burn the Western Conference down out of anger for being separated from his best friend and from being separated from the TDOT and really losing all that studio time with Drake. And Bellinelli is interesting, right? They're veterans, and they have a culture of winning. I'm going to take a slight over for them. I don't like their team. I understand. I think you need point guards in today's NBA, is one of my expert opinions.

I'm going out on a limb. Their point guards now are actually even worse than Orlando. There's just a lot of Patty Mills and Derek White There's just a lot of Patty Mills, Derek White. It's a lot of Patty Mills and Derek White. I'm sure they're going to get creative, but DeRozan and Aldridge as my two best guys scares me from just a kind of attitude standpoint. Those are two guys who wear their hearts on their sleeves and have kind of

emotional ups and downs in a bunch of different ways. And then you got Rudy Gay and Gasol's kind of, he's a little weird. And I think the vibe on this team's going to be strange. It's not, it's, the team they put together, these personalities, does not make a lot of sense to me. It's like an enigmatic kind of quiet team trying to read people. What are they thinking?

Yeah. But since when has personality on the Spurs mattered? Well, I just think that, you know, Ginobili and Parker, these respected vets who carried themselves with a lot of swagger and fire and kind of policed the ship. And when Kawhi's acting like an ass, who were the two guys who spoke out against him,

Ginobili and Parker? Those guys are now gone. I don't know who the leader of this team is. I think it's a lot to ask from Popovich at this point. He seems like he's on the finish line a little bit here. And I gotta be honest, I'd be more surprised if they were better than I thought

and won 50 games than where I think this season might go is they might just be bad. They might like miss the playoffs and get like the seventh pick in the draft. I think that's more realistic than them winning 50 games. So I'm going slate, slate, slate, slate under in a really tough conference.

So you're saying that's 42 wins. Yeah, like they make the playoffs five days ago was minus 200 to make it. It's got to drop now. I think they go 43 and 39, 42 and 40. I like other teams in the division a little bit more. I really do. What was the line? Wasn't it 43?

It was 43. So I think they either push or go right under. Okay. Push or right under is what you're taking. And I'm just going to take 44 out of respect. That's it. It's a respect 44. I like eight or nine teams more than their team is where I've landed.

And I really wonder about DeRozan this year. And he's been really open about,Rozan this year, you know, and he's been really open about, not to get too serious for a second, but you know, that he's battled depression and all this stuff. And I really worry about this trade and how it might affect him just as somebody that I like him. I don't know what to expect from him this year. I think he was really, really, really traumatized by that trade in a way that I can't remember in a while. He was really like, can you remember an athlete getting traded like that who took it harder? No. He loved Toronto and Toronto loved him. I feel like he's devastated.

Now he's in this San Antonio situation. I don't know if his heart's going to be in the right place. There was one athlete who comes to mind who got stabbed right in the back with giant knives and and uh his name is isaiah thomas well but he was hurt he deserved better yeah i just he deserved better i'm i'm watching this san antonio thing i the vibe on that team is weird and guys who have either been traded or thought they're gonna get traded or guys who, are you sure you like me? Or people on the end of their careers. And it's just weird.

Weird team. New Orleans, 45 and a half. This is another one. This could wild swings here. I could see them winning 50 games. I could see Davis being traded in February. I can't get past the fact that three of their four best guys are guys that I don't think you can play in crunch time together.

Miritich, Anthony Davis, and Julius Randle. I like all of those guys. I don't see a world in where they're playing in the last five minutes of a game. Imagine they're playing the Celtics who guards Jason Tatum. Holiday's been great.

I am going over purely as an Anthony Davis pick. That's it. That's interesting. I just think he's so good that let's say there are 500 team. I think he's worth five more wins just cause he's that good. And that gets them the 47 and 35 holiday has been great. I think they're going to really miss Rhonda. There's no question,

but I just can't see Davis being on a shit team. He's too good. He's too talented. So the, the over under you to win the over you, they have to win 46 games. They won 48 last season i personally think the downgrade from rondo and boogie because we recall boogie set the league on fire through the

first two months last season he was a legit mbp candidate i mean it was not preposterous to talk about what he was doing night in night out and he really instilled in them you know that there was a very interesting experiment of davis and boogie together and he came out so hot so on fire that i really uh it you know it was a the boogie reclamation project was fully underway and we were all on board for it and and then he tore his damn Achilles. I'm going to take the under because that's just three games for less than what they won last year. I'm with you on Anthony Davis, and he did just have, I think, back-to-back seasons where he played 70 games or more.

Yeah, I'm tired of hearing the fragile thing. He got rid of that last year. Here's another way to look at it. Our eight playoff teams last year were Houston, Golden State, Portland, Oklahoma, Utah, New Orleans, San Antonio, Minnesota. I think Denver's going to make the playoffs and I think the Lakers are going to make the playoffs this year. So we have to create two spots. And the question is, which two teams do you feel the best about falling out of the top eight? And for me, it's San Antonio, Minnesota. And I have them way ahead of picking against Anthony Davis,

and I have them ahead of Portland, who people are weirdly down on this year. So if New Orleans is going to make the playoffs, in my mind, that means 46, 47, 48 wins, somewhere in there. So I feel good about that. So we're split on that. I think they can still make the playoffs of 45 wins in the West, but maybe I'm wrong about that. Well, it's good that we disagree sometimes on these. And last year we disagreed, and I think you did better than I did on the disagreements. I don't remember that. Did we get the stats ever?

Somebody, some weird reader sent me the stats. You did slightly better than me. I didn't really want to talk about it because you did better than me and it hurt my feelings. Dallas. You kicked my ass the two previous years. So yeah, thank you reader. Whoever sent that in. Dallas, 35 wins.

I really want to go over on this. I like the guys on this team. You know, I love Donchage Dennis Smith year two will be interesting. I'm still not a hundred percent sold on him, but it'll be fun. I like the fact that they're going to play him off the ball and play multiple point guards and do all this. Dirk's last year,

Deandre Jordan's in there. There were signs of deterioration with him last year. I'm not a hundred percent sold on that. Most importantly, Haralab's in there. There were signs of deterioration with him last year. I'm not 100% sold on that. Most importantly, Haralabob's there. This is it. And I am going over. Our friend Haralabob, Haralabob Valgaris, longtime gambler. He's been on this podcast multiple times.

Got a job running analytics for the Mavericks. I think that's worth seven wins. I'm going over for Dallas 35, and I'm making it a lock. I got you, Haral Bob. You taught me how to win. This is the H-Bob lock. You beat me to the punch.

You stole the enthusiasm. I love it so much. I'm right there with you. The H-Bob lock is in effect. H-Bob! I think it slightly undersells what that dude brings to the table, calling him a gambler. It's true that he's a gambler.

Thinker. And it's true that he made millions of dollars gambling on basketball. But what he really is is a savant, an analytics savant. He had basketball advanced analytics that he was running off his own platform 10 years ago, 15 years ago, as a simple way to try and create an advantage for himself. This man, I never, ever, ever betting against that dude. This is an over H-Bob lock. I also think Dallas is interesting.

31 wins last year. You're only asking him to win five more games. And I think Donchich is going to be super fun to watch. I love this over, and it's an H-Bob lock. They added Donchich is going to be super fun to watch. I love this, this over and it's an H Bob lock. They added Donchich and they added Deandre. Their centers were a mess last year. What I love about Donchich, I love a lot of things about him,

but he's going to be able to play a whole bunch of different positions for them. He doesn't necessarily need the ball to succeed. And Rick Carlisle, lot to love. I think make playoffs for them is plus 600. Just throwing that out there. That's where it might, might be worth a fly I think make playoffs for them is plus 600. Just throwing that out there.

Might be worth a flyer. They're not going to make the playoffs. H-Bob flyer plus 600. Congratulations, Rob. We're going to miss you on the pod. I'm going to miss texting you about gambling and NBA stuff. You're not allowed to text about anything. I sent him one text that was on the line. It's like, I can't talk about this stuff anymore.

It's like being friends with somebody who's in the mafia, who's now just running an ice cream shop. We respect it. We're rooting for you. Good luck. Unbelievable. Memphis, 34 wins. I'm going under.

The over is minus 130. So there's actually been some action. I get it. Jaron Jackson's going to be really good. No question. Gasol and Conley, maybe they're healthy. Chandler Parsons, rumors he might be healthy. I get it. I see it.

I just... I think it goes the other way. I think this is... If Gasol and Conley are healthy, trade them. Get their asses out of there. Wait, what are you doing, Memphis? You're not winning anything. This should be, if those guys aren't healthy, they're going to suck.

And if they are healthy, trade their asses and get some picks. This is another team with a beloved friend of the pod, John Hollinger. We love Hollinger. Or at least I do. I like him. No, he's a nice guy I think he's mad at me though you would think that he would

of all people just based on all of the the persuasive writing he'd done before taking this job for Memphis be prepared to pull the plug on veterans when you can get value so it must be the case that they just have not had trade offers

that have knocked their socks off. Well, those guys, they make crazy money. But that goes back to my Miami thing. This is how Miami makes the next step is they roll the dice with one of these, with a Gasol type or whatever. Conley is a point guard

that should be available to every team in the league. Unfortunately, he makes $30 million a year. I'm going under because I think the conference is too tough and there's going to be three shitty teams in this conference. It's the law of averages. It happens every year. And even if shitty means you went 29 and 53 or 30, 52, whatever,

we still need a bottom. Who are the teams on the bottom in this division? The candidates are Dallas, Memphis, Portland, Minnesota, the Clippers, Phoenix, and Sacramento. Now you could say Phoenix and Sacramento. I actually like Phoenix's roster more than Minnesota, more than Memphis's roster. There's going to be three bad teams.

I think Memphis is one of the three bad ones. I'm not going to lock the over. All right, great. Let's disagree. Yeah, we disagree. Just suck up to Chris Vernon some more um Northwest

Northwest Utah 49 and a half I'm getting my red pen you I mean this is this is one of my favorite bets

that are available out here no take the lead I just can't believe Utah 49 and a half minus 135 to bet the over. A lot of buzz on the over. Yeah.

It could be minus 235 and I would bet the over. There's no price I'm not willing to pay for the over 49.5 for Utah. I think they're so good. I think they're the third best team in the entire Western Conference. They had 48 wins last year.

They had the point differential, though, of a 53-win team. And I think the sky is the limit. This is the season that Donovan Mitchell starts to get mentioned. He's going to be a top-five MVP candidate this season because Utah is going to win 53 or 54, 55 games. If they could go bear healthy for an entire season and Ricky is out there dealing the way that he's been dealing.

I, I, this team is so good. There's so good defensively. Uh, you, it, it,

I watched them alive. I went and saw the almost bullets play Utah. They just could not figure out how to get open shots against utah if they're very well coached they're very disciplined tons of talent this is a joe house l-o-c-k lock great case i'm going slight slight slight over not a lock and I do think there's red flag signs. Like what? I think Mitchell wants to be a superstar. I don't necessarily know if that's the best thing for him. Now, if you think Mitchell is year two Dwayne Wade, that's great for them. If the concern is he becomes the,

I got this guy. Don't you guys realize who I am? I'm Donovan Mitchell. That worries me a little. Go Bears health worries me a little. Rubio always finds a way to get injured. They didn't really add anybody. The West got better from a top heavy standpoint. And I also am always a little dubious of the teams. Every year, there's one team that really played well the last eight, nine weeks of the season and put up some crazy record. And we're like, whoa, what about that team? And then I just think that every year there's a team that does that. And I don't necessarily know if it translates to them being a contender the next year.

Remember Miami did it two years ago. Sometimes teams just peak at the right time and take advantage of injuries to other teams, the schedule, people being tired, whatever. They kicked Oklahoma City's ass in the playoffs. I get it. I get it. I see all of it.

They kicked their ass. I see all of it. I'm just pointing out little tiny red flags. That's why I'm not doing a lock, but I'm with you. I'm going over. Okay. You're on the over. That's a lock over for me.

Speaking of locks, my bookie is a place that takes wagers from people and you can oh potentially bet on uh on things if you're interested if you're like the kind of things kind of guy who likes to bet a little and win a lot they give you a chance to create a big parlay pick three teams to win if you hit all three you'll turn 100 into 600 there's's so much to bet on. Playoff baseball. What about 18 parlays? Wait till you hear me on this pod with Cousin Sal today. They have hockey, they have baseball, whatever you want. I recommend these guys.

I trust them. They've been in business for years. They got great online reviews. Their mobile site is easy to use. You can even check to see if they have some of these NBA bets we're talking about or some of the football bets, whatever you want. If you're on the sidelines, now's the time to get in the game. MyBookie will still match your first deposit dollar for dollar, but now you've got to join because they'll be pulling that offer soon. Log into MyBookie right now.

Double your money. Use promo code Bill Simmons, and they'll match your first deposit 100%. That is promo code Bill Simmons. Oklahoma City is also in this division. Over under 48.5. Make the playoffs, minus 1,000. Division plus 185. Utah's plus 175 to win this division. Roberson, Roberson.

Roberson, Roberson is out for the year, or at least out for a couple more months, but it does not look good. They added Dennis Schroeder. They have Paul George back. They have our friend Steven Adams, who's always hungry. Only person who's hungrier than Joe House.

There's pieces here. They got rid of Carmelo. That might help. And yet, 48 and a half just seems like the perfect over-under for them. I don't know what to do. Talk me into one way or the other. I'm taking the under.

I think that this leg issue with Russell Westbrook that surfaced recently that's going to have him missing some games at the beginning of the season is going to turn into something more of a lingering deal. This looks to me like it's going to be Paul George's team to carry them wherever they're going to go this season. I don't like that. I don't like a Paul George-Dennis Schroeder team. You know what that is?

That's a team in the East that wins like, you know, that's like a Charlotte kind of team. That's like a 38-39 win team that's, you know, fighting for the last playoff spot. I am disappointed that roberson's hurt and i'm disappointed what about roberson he's hurt too robertson's hurt as well well that doesn't roberson and roberson are hurt roberson roberson and westbrook because you know i want to see this vision that Oklahoma City purports to have.

I'll never get over their – I have said it many times. I understand them pushing Russell Westbrook to win the MVP two years ago. Yeah. And they went all in as a franchise to produce that result. And then the MVP of the league for a team that didn't win 50 games, so an aberration over the last 30 years, went and won one playoff game. And they, to their great credit, imagined a team, pulled together a team with free agents that they had no business dragging in there.

The Paul George acquisition was absolutely terrific, and it was definitely worth it for them to try with Melo. And that should have been something that worked better than it did. That cost us money. We lost money on that. We lost money on the MVP thing. Oh, we lost money on their, yeah. We lost money on their overrun. We bet that over, then carmelo is was bad so you i i'm with you on the leg thing it's weird that he gets this procedure done every year now it seems like and doesn't seem like like uh it's like oh he'll be fine it's like all right at some point he plays so hard and he's putting a lot of miles on himself year after year that i do worry long

term what's that going to look like? It's almost like a running back, where you look up and one year, Jamal Charles is getting signed by Jacksonville to the practice squad. You're like, oh, Jamal Charles, that guy was awesome four years ago. I got to tell you, speaking of MVP's house, you know who the Ringer MVP is? Who's that? You don't know who the MVP of the Ringer is? I mean, there's candidates.

Who is it? It's Liz Kelly. She just brought me cream of cauliflower soup. She really is the Ringer MVP. I'm having cream of cauliflower soup as I talk to you. I know you're hungry, so I just wanted to plant that in your brain because I want to beat you in the over-unders. I want your brain not to work as well.

I didn't eat anything. Yeah. Well, that's your fault. I want to beat you in the over-unders. I want your brain not to work as well. I didn't eat anything. Well, that's your fault. You're a dumbass. I have Oklahoma City. I have the under. I do not think it's a lock. It feels right around the right thing. The division is Utah,

Oklahoma City, Denver, Portland, Minnesota. Then they also have to deal with the teams in the other two divisions. And I just think it's going to be really hard to get to 50 wins. You really have to have a good team this year to be in the 50s. So slight under for me. I'm intrigued by the Schroeder thing, though. I'm a fan of his.

I think he's good. I think he's got a little moxie. And they always talk about how he's difficult to coach. He seems like a pain in the ass. Well, he's on a little moxie and they always talk about how he's difficult to coach i seems like a pain in the ass well he's on a shitty team he wanted i don't know i i want to see him on this team um i guess i i'm interested in seeing him on this team he's pretty underwhelming in atlanta i mean i saw a ton of him because washington saw atlanta in the first round of playoffs and yeah and he he was not up to the moment. I just think he could be the Reggie Jackson type for them who in a playoff series, he could win one game. Okay.

He had half for one quarter. That's not bad. Are you down with my conspiracy theory that Adam Silver told the Lakers to stay away from Paul George? No. Conspiracy Bill feels really strongly about this. Why? He went on Jalen and Jacoby's show last week

and talked about this. And what did he say? He said Adam Silver called the Lakers and called Paul George and said, Paul George won't be signing with the Lakers. You're not allowed to approach him for a deal. And if you do, there's going to be some major tampering stuff

and you'll all be fine. So it was the old David Stern two-step. He called it David Stern. He David Stern a deal. And if you do, there's going to be some major tampering stuff and you'll all be fine. So it was the old David Stern two-step. He pulled a David Stern. He David Sterned them. And in late June, Paul George was like, I'm going to go re-sign with OKC. It looks great. I'm going to stay here.

That's what Conspiracy Bill thinks. I don't think that Conspiracy Bill does. Denver, 47 and a half. This is a team Danny Chow. The always hungry Danny Chow is a fan of. Plus 400 to win the division. 47 and a half for the over under. Paul Millsap back.

Jamal Murray a year older. They basically kept their team together, which was a good thing. People like this team a little bit. Another year of the Joker. I'm going slight over.

I don't see how they're not two wins better. They won 47 last year. I think they won 46 last year. In fact, I know they won 46 last year because on the very last game of the season, I had, with the Cousin Sal, we together made an appearance on against all odds and gave out an eight team make the playoffs parlay and you know who effed it for me Denver the Denver Nuggets losing that game to Minnesota the last game of the season they lose games to bad teams Ten losses last year to teams that finished under 500. But Millsap missed 44 games last year.

Millsap had a bad... If you go and look at Millsap's stats, he had the worst year he's had in 10 years. He only played 38 games. Even when he played, he was 15-6. 46% shooting. He was just hurt all year. And I just think he's going to be good this year.

So they went from, you have Paul Millsap on your team, but you really don't. You have the shell of Paul Millsap. They're adding Paul Millsap. He's going to be good this year. And now you're adding Jamal Murray, who I think we both think has a chance to be not special all the time, but have special moments like what he had last year on TNT, that game he got hot on Thursday night. I think he's a guy who has a little bit of special in him. And the Joker's great. I like this team. I like this team more than OKC's team. Oh, me too. And I think they're going to win more games than OKC. The two things that I'm

intrigued by, I think that they improved getting rid're going to win more games than OKC. The two things that I'm intrigued by, I think that they improved getting rid of Moutier as the backup point guard. Yeah. He was a huge addition by subtraction. Yeah. And they replaced him with the little guy. So I'm praying that the little guy is healthy.

That's the other thing. We get through it for the little guy. If the little guy comes on and his hips are in good health and he's kind of in instant offense mode. That makes that second unit so formidable. And I'll tell you who I'm really intrigued by for this team, Michael Porter Jr. I think that there's a real potential for him to step in and be an eye-opener. Now, he's not going to get tons of time.

So he's not a rookie of the year candidate. But there's a redemption story there with him, and it's a good situation for him to comfortably be kind of groomed and come on and show us something. I like Denver. I think they're deep. I think they're smart. I think that they can easily win 52 games.

Michael Porter Jr. also gives somebody to ride to rehab with Isaiah Thomas. Two of them can go together. That's unfair. When they're getting like two hours of injury stuff. You're right, that was mean. I apologize.

I love Isaiah Thomas. It does worry me that those, well, at least with Isaiah, the upside of that for what they paid is the all-time no-brainer. If they get anything out of him, that's great. If they get like kind of six-man level Isaiah coming off the bench and changing games,

that becomes one of the most interesting teams we have. So I like the over. I agree. Plus they still have that advantage of marijuana being legal in Colorado and these guys, the opposing team guys go in and they just go to the head shops and they fucking get stoned out of their minds. That's an advantage. Yeah. Not that they're not getting stoned out of their minds anyway.

It's just easier in Denver. Speaking of getting stoned out of your minds, the Portland Trailblazers, they're over under. They won 49 games last year, brought back the exact same team and they're over under drop seven wins. I cannot remember a team being more damaged by a playoff ass kicking just in the perception of what they are and what's going to happen than this Trailblazers team.

It's like they fucking suck now. It's over. And meanwhile, they won 49 games and they just lost in the playoffs. What's changed, Joe House? Nothing. I don't understand it. 49 games and they just lost in the playoffs. What's changed, Joe House? Nothing. I don't understand it. I get the impression that Vegas is projecting some kind of undercurrent of instability.

Vegas must believe that the narrative that immediately followed the ass-whooping that the pelicans put on this team that is that cj and and and dame can't play together that there is something to that and in fact one of those two dudes is going to go over the course of the season i don't think so i don't know why they would do it it doesn't seem like they can get proper value out of it. I'm going over. I just like taking the over for the good people of Portland. And they're the only show in town other than the soccer team, which is really good. Isn't the soccer team in Portland really good? Yeah, sure. I'm going slight over.

Over 42. 43 is all I'm asked to come up with. It's almost like Vegas made the over-under low because they know that in February, the Contavious Caldwell Pope and Lonzo Ball for Damian Lillard trade is coming. It's almost like they're doing that. That's right.

It's almost like that's on their radar already. This fake trade that I seemingly made up that has not been discussed at all. Uh-oh. Yeah. I'm not. Just saying. Okay. So what's that mean?

What are you doing? Not doing anything. Just pointing out. You have to make a pick. It's almost like they know he's going to the Lakers in a couple months. It's almost like that. This is such

good stuff. It's almost like that. It would be like if he was going to the Lakers. Why didn't you tell me this ahead of time? I'm just saying, if Damian Lillard's going to be a Laker in February, you'd probably make Portland's over or under total 42 would be my damn it would be my dick why would you let me rant and rave like that and then with this obvious

insider knowledge i don't have insider knowledge i i'm you'd love to do that i talk in a hypothetical all the time talking hypotheticals in fact watch this yeah I have my highlighter pen. I'm just highlighting Portland because now I'm going to bet the under. They get a highlight for the ones I'm going to bet my real money on. Hypothetically. I am going under as well. I thought they overachieved last year. I think there's a chance for a major trade that will probably not reflect great on their roster. And I think the West is better.

And we need two teams to get bounced out of the playoffs. At least. Now, you could say three if you think the Clippers can kind of sneak in there. I don't think the Clippers can sneak in there, but we'll have our time to talk about it. I'm going to go under. Next one, under or over.

I'm joining you on the under. Minnesota. 41 wins. This seems crazy to me. I actually like. All right, let's say they get 60 cents on the dollar from Minnesota. Last time I checked, Towns is still on this team. He's really good.

They have good players. We need to see from Towns what impact, what was the Jimmy Butler effect. And I texted, I watched a late season Minnesota-Washington game last year, and I was stunned by how impact-less. There are a lot of guys that are impactful carl carl anthony towns was impact less and he ended up with a double double like nice stats 24 and 12 or 13 or

something like that he couldn't have had less to do with the outcome of the basketball game he was just running up and down the floor yeah and i i just was so befuddled by it. Well, I think Chibi Butler is too. Yeah, you know, there's this great legacy of NBA stars going back to the 60s with like Walt Bellamy where they get their stats, but if you actually watch the entire game

or you were there, you're like, how does that guy have 24 points? I was here the whole time. What just happened? Towns is the captain of that team. I still think he has, I'm not, I don't think he's like this generation's Elvin Hayes or Spencer Haywood or Sidney Wicks or some of these other guys.

I think he's better than that. But it is weird to see him in person, how he, you forget he's on the court for like five minutes. Didn't you have that feeling? Like you're, I'm like, oh, Towns is out there. Was he out there the whole time? I didn't realize. And I think that's part of why Jimmy Butler is so crazy.

He should have numbers like Anthony Davis. He should have 40-20 games. You know what I mean? He should have two or three 40-20 games a season. He ain't Anthony Davis. That's how much talent he has. I have the over for a bunch of reasons. I think Butler is staying there for at least the next couple months

because they can't trade that dude. Tibbs is in a, I'm getting fired anyway here. There's no way he tanks. They're going to be balls to the wall the whole time. They do have some talent. If this doesn't light a fire under Wiggins, I don't know what would, other than actually lighting him, lighting a fire on his ass would be the only other move,

other than Jimmy Butler just calling him out and making him just seem like he doesn't give a shit. I saw Jalen on Countdown. He was saying how there's got to be a fight in the next practice. It's got to that level. People are just questioning your manhood and what you care about in life. Well, they canceled today's practice, which I love. They're 41 wins. There still is a chance. Like what,

let's say they get Eric Gordon. Now you had Eric Gordon that team with Butler and Wiggins and Jeff Teague and some of their bench dudes. I don't know. I, I like their team more than Portland and wait, how do they get Eric Gordon? What are you talking about? I'm saying if they traded Butler to Houston. Oh, you said Butler that you repeated Butler being on that roster.

Oh, I screwed up. I meant Towns, Wiggins, Eric Gordon. You know, they got Taj. The bench is pretty rough, actually, now that I'm looking at it. Isn't Jeff Teague still the starting point guard for that team? God, I might have to redo this. Derek Rose is on this team. I like it.

I'm joining you on the over because I think the scenario you outlined at the beginning is right, which is they're going to be stubborn as F. And, you know, there's no – I don't think it makes sense for Butler to not go out and play. I think he should go out and play. Right. The upside is they keep Butler and they actually do well and it becomes this kind of weird marriage. We've seen this before. Like, San Antonio traded Sean Elliott for Robert Horry and the deal got voided and they kept Sean Elliott. And that's about as bad of a situation as you can have a team.

And they ended up winning the title with Sean Elliott. We've seen really weird roster situations kind of play itself out naturally. And I think it could happen here. I like the over. I don't see them having a losing record. All right. The Pacific. Golden State, 63 wins.

I don't want to litigate this for an hour, and we're already almost at the two-hour mark. I don't know. Why didn't they win 63 games last year? What the fuck's the difference? Now it's another year of them talking about what a grind it is and how tired they are. Yeah, how about this?

Not counting Cleveland. yeah how about this not with not counting cleveland they've played uh 30 more games and 8 000 more minutes than any other team in the nba over the last three years so right that's it let's not relitigate it let's let's not litigate it at all i'm taking the under it's really hard to win 64 and above doesn't happen often They have old guys in this team who now know Livingston, Iguodala, guys that are key guys if you're really trying to win 64 games, who they just want to be healthy in April, May, and June. They're not going to play those guys that much. They're going to throw all these random dudes. The one guy, I said this in July, nobody believed me. They stole Jarebko from Utah.

I don't know why Utah didn't keep Jarebko. Jarebko. They call him Jonas. He's going to be good for them. Jonas is going to- He's a classic. He's a perfect warrior. Jonas is going to be good for them. I may or may not have exchanged texts with somebody who coaches the Warriors who was raving about Jonas. Well, you know, he fills the hole that David West left behind. And, you know, great job by David West getting his ring. Way to go, D-West. That was money. I'm happy he did it. He contributed to that team. Jerob Coe is perfect to slide into that role. By the way, there's this new trend that I keep hearing with basketball insiders where they, they credit the team. They,

they they're passing on the information, but it's always super positive. So it'd be like, you know, talk to a guy at the Warriors. He, he thinks Quinn cook can make the all NBA team. It's all,

it's all this like infomercial information. It'd be like, if somebody was, I'm not saying there, that was a joke, obviously, but it's stuff like that. Like talk to a guy at Sixers. Like they think Markel Fultz could be all defense. And it's like, yeah, of course they're telling you that.

They work for the team. What are they going to be like? Markel Fultz is a fucking clown show. It's never happening. Like, of course they're going to build these guys up. It's my new favorite trend from an information standpoint. I talked to a guy at The Ringer. He said, Nephew Kyle's really doing great.

Wait a minute. Nephew Kyle really is doing great. I know. But I'm saying like if, you know, you're not going to hear like, talk to a guy at the Raiders. Nephi Kyle's a fucking train wreck. Every time we call Joe House, he has to ask for the number. He has no idea.

Untrue though. That's not a man. Oh man. Not Nephi Kyle's man. Shutting it down. Nephi Kyle has three phone numbers to remember. For some reason, we won't write them on a piece of paper. I have them now. I have Jack O's and both of House's numbers.

Well, Nephi Kyle is doing great, just for the record. Nice house. But I talked to a guy at Golden State. He said they love Jarebko. They think he's great. All right. That's enough. Enough?

All right. We're both under. Lakers. Under. Lakers. You're hungry now. You're officially hungry. Lakers, 48 and a half.

I'm making this a lock. Here's my case. LeBron James is on this team. I like the young guys. This team has a higher percentage of guys that I like than almost any other team, with the exception of Caldwell Pope. Trade his ass as soon as you can. I like LeBron on a young team.

We talked about this on the MVP podcast with KOC and Russillo. I just think there's going to be a lot of energy at those Laker games. I think they're going to be very tough to beat. I think LeBron has heard all the, oh, maybe he's throwing away this year, all that crap. I like him and Lonzo. I think Ingram's really good. I like Josh Hart. Rondo, as you pointed out earlier, was essential for New Orleans last year and could be essential for this team. I like their roster. I wish they had signed Brooke Lopez instead of JaVale

as the one, as the major glaring move. The other ones are expirings, whatever. Like those guys are going to be packaged into a trade. But I hope you're sitting down, House. I think this is the three seed. I think this is the three seed. I have them as my three seed. Yeah. I'm not.

I think that's crazy talk. I think they are 55 and 27, 56. I'm not saying, I swear to God, I swear on my kids. I'm not saying this as a reverse jinx in the Lakers. I really genuinely,

I just want to get that out. Cause people like, Oh, I don't trust him. He's a dick. Hate you so much. No, they love me. Exactly what you're up to. No, I just want to get that out. Cause people are like, oh, I don't trust Simmons. He's a dick. People of LA hate you so much. No, they love me. They know exactly what you're up to.

No, I'm not. I just swore on my kids. I swore on my kids. I swear on nephew Kyle and my kids. This is not a reverse jinx. I think the Lakers are going to win the three seed. I think they're going to win 55 or 56 games. And I think they're going to be one of the stories of the first,

I don't know two months of the season it's like wow the Lakers are good I know who saw this coming I fucking see it coming the Lakers are gonna be good period well I will say this I'm joining you in the lock because I too think the Lakers are gonna be good this track record of LeBron James winning at least 50 games every season that he plays you know I think that's a pretty good track record uh he's won at least 50 games every season that he plays you know I think that's a pretty good track record uh he's won at least 50 games every season since 2007 2008 I just looked at the calendar that's 10 years ago uh you know not counting the stupid lockout year um I am so dumb that I watched the entirety of last night's preseason game. I watched like two thirds of it. I really enjoyed it.

I drew conclusions that are completely ridiculous. I love this Lakers team. I think they're good. I think Ingram... By the way, what's the dude's name who's doing the video work for you? It's a new innovation of NBA

content from the ringer. It's effing delicious. The leap. Who's doing the leap? Bunch of our people. We have great people. I don't want to give one person credit because then somebody else will be mad. No,

there's like one guy who had this thing from dime drop. Well, who's that guy? Well, the guy, the guy running that is Kyle man, but our whole team makes it with them. But yeah,

Kyle man, it's good stuff. Um, well, I like Ingram. I'll tell you another thing. I really like Lonzo. And I keep saying this. I'll buy all your Lonzo stock. If your Lonzo stock's for sale, send

it my way. I'll buy it. I think him and LeBron are going to be good together. I like the Laker team. We're aligned. But you don't agree on a three seed. You have Utah as your three seed. Yeah, I have Utah as a three seed. You're absolutely right about that.

Well, it sounds like a side bet. What do you want to bet? Ooh, this is good. Yeah. Let's side bet the shit out of this. A meal of our choice. How about your first major domo meal? Yeah, that's right.

Well, that'll have already happened, but your second major domo meal. Well, I'll find another restaurant in la i mean i'm gonna tell you about last week domo did i tell you about last week no what happened last week oh you were in new york yeah we went to major domo sam the original major domo restaurant in new york and chang they had this giant duck and we took it down like it was like like when five people are tackling gronkowski and he won't go down and it's just finally the pile gets him that was we were the pile and the duck was gronkowski and he did go down it was great you weren't there i've had the duck at

sambar it was awesome uh but it was many years ago it was not chef david tang wasn't there and i know chang has terrific support so i i think we had great duck in fact we had it together uh but it was so good imagine i can only imagine last week's duck three teams left la clippers 37 half wins i'm going over and that's why i think they oh you're going under. Go ahead. You go first. Extremely under. Why? You asked for the teams that... For the third team in the West that's going to be terrible. It needs to be the LA Clippers. It just doesn't make one lick of sense.

The only thing that has them doing anything at all is the fact that Doc Rivers is still the coach and Doc is not a tank kind of kind of coach they have neither the talent nor the incentive to be good they should stink they this is the time to bottom out steve ballmer is a businessman as a businessman he needs to look in the mirror understand what he has in front of him and get rid of assets and prepare for the reinvention of the business well steve ballmer is the same guy who, by just making a shitload of mistakes, created Apple basically for Apple.

Microsoft still doing pretty good. I know what you did there. I'm going over. I don't think they're capable of tanking between Ballmer and Doc. I don't think either of them have any interest in it. And I actually like some of the players in their team. And I think I could see them.

Like one. 39-41 player you like. I like Tobias Harris. I like Patrick Beverly. Tobias Harris is likable. Patrick Beverly is likable on a different team. Tobias. I like what I've read about the rookie.

Tobias is likable on a different team. I like what I've read. I don't even. The a more of a different team. I like what I've read. I don't even. The Shea Gilgis Alexander. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. The Kentucky kid. I think, here's the other thing. Here's the other reason I like the over.

I think they have a chance. If they want to. By the way, hopefully Gallinari's healthy this year. And if he's healthy, I like him. I like T. Dosage. They got Mabamute for a little defense. They got Avery Bradley. This team can actually D up.

They can put out Beverly, Avery Bradley, Mabamute, Tobias Harris, and Harrell. Harrell's my favorite guy on this team. I like the guy. I'm going over on the Clippers. You went over. And then we make a trade. All right. Well. I'm going over on the Clippers. You went over. And then I make a trade. All right. Well, you're going to be wrong.

Well, that's it. That would be the thing that would screw me on the under. That's a perfectly fine complementary set of players surrounding a super-duper star who wants to come to L.A. But they play defense, though. Sure. Yeah, like I say, complementary. So if Durant goes to the clippers next year do you

think more or less of him that that i i think that that's perfect that would be a very steve balmer kind of play that would be a smart businessman preparing his team to get to to you know and seizing it seasoning it yeah? Anyway. I know what you mean. To accept a wonderful superstar. Like David Chang, preparing a wonderful array of lettuce wraps and other kinds of accoutrement to go with a beautiful lacquered duck that you dropped down for you mother effers last week when I couldn't come to dinner. I loved it.

Phoenix, 29 and a half. The case against them, they have no point guard, and they just fired their GM nine days before the season, which was actually kind of hilarious. Like it was so weird. Have the guy do the draft, their free agency, and then fire them. Like what kind of jackass is in charge of anything that would do that?

The case for them is Aiton has really impressed people in the preseason. I still feel like Donchik should have gone number one, but I saw the case for Aiton. Aiton looks like a man's man out there already. has really impressed people in the preseason. I still feel like Donchik should have gone number one, but I saw the case for Aiton. Aiton looks like a man's man out there already, and he is the oldest-looking 21-year-old we've had in a while in the NBA. Josh Jackson, possible step up.

Devin Booker, little scoring. Trevor Ariza, not a great year last year, but some veteran leadership. There are pieces, and there is a crunch time that I enjoy with this team. And I don't think they're going to tank. I think part of this is they actually might be fun and a little bit frisky. Their fans have been waiting to watch a good team for a while. And there's upside with Aiton.

There's a chance. I like everything except for the fact that their point guard is named Eli Okobo. I don't know who that is, House. I've watched basketball a lot. Eli Okobo? Sure. He's from France.

He's 20 years old. He was their 31st pick in the second round and on the ESPN depth chart he's their number one point guard right now which I'm sure isn't true here's my question just play Devin Booker a point guard what's the big deal just use him like Curry have him bring the ball up and then run off some screens it's not rocket science let me ask you this when's Devin Booker gonna be back playing basketball that I don't know. Why was he out on a scooter? I know whatever fake-ass thing they came up with. Yeah, that wasn't good.

To explain, I don't like that. He just got all his money. They just said they entrusted the franchise to him. They said, okay, young fella. You got it. You did your thing. You've put us on the map earlier than we anticipated being on the map with these enormous scoring outbursts.

We respect that. Thank you for doing it. Here's your reward. And what he did was go out and be irresponsible behind their backs and cheat on them. I'm taking the under. I don't like franchises that have players like that. Hopeful to play in season opener. Hopeful. Hopeful to play in the season opener.

Yeah. Okay. Well, I hope that works out for him. I want to know what the injury was. I want to see his hand. I want to see whether or not he's wearing a brace on his hand. I'm taking the under because it also makes sense for them. They still need one more piece to me.

Yeah. I'm going to, by the way, preview. Well, I'll save it for AAO. I have a point of view on Aiton when it comes to rookie of the year. You know, you swayed me the other way. You're right. If Booker was guns blazing, 100% healthy coming into this season, because they'd have to start out pretty well for them not to realize it's a good idea to tank. If he's not healthy and they start out 2-8, 2-10, at some point the path will become pretty clear.

So I'll join you. I'm going to go under for them, and I'm also going to go under for Sacramento, our next team. 26 wins. That's just easy. I'm going under also. That's easy. There's nothing to talk about.

I'm sorry, Sacramento. Yeah, sorry. That's easy. There's nothing to talk about. I'm sorry, Sacramento. Yeah, sorry. It's your Sacramento. Now, here's the catch for them. They don't have their pick. Do not have a first-round pick. Who has it? Philly gets it if it's top one.

The Boston Celtics get it if it's two or later. So there's that. That's a shame. They need to go into the market and get another pick. But their only trade assets are Marvin Bagley and Darren Fox. And they need both those guys. Right. And I think they're actually...

So we've seen this scenario with Brooklyn where they play so hard, they actually get the over, even though you don't know what the F they're doing and in April they win like 6 of 7 and they feel good about themselves I'm still going under just because it's Sacramento but yeah they won 27 last year and they had the point

differential of a 20 win team and their over under is 26 so it's either going to be spot on 26 or 25 we're both taking the under. We have an agreement at the end of this assessment. So we're going over for H-Bob and Dallas, 35 wins. We're going over Lakers, 48.5 wins.

Those are the only locks we like in the West. And I think that's fair. I think it's fair to play it safe because the West had so much flux, I think it would be stupid to get brazen. We're not about being brazen. We're about winning money. Oh yeah, and you like the Utah locks. So you had seven locks, I had five. I'm not

forcing two more locks. If you want to have seven, so be it. I know what my five are. Joe House, this was a pleasure. This was fun as locks. If you want to have seven, so be it. I know what my five are. Joe House, this was a pleasure. This was fun as always. I look forward to talking to you in two hours on Cousin Sal's NBA Futures pod. I'm going to go eat for two hours before that podcast.

I'm eating the entirety of the break between these podcasts. Good. All right. Talk to you soon. All right. Thanks to House. Thanks to ZipRecruiter. Don't forget to go to ZipRecruiter.com slash BS. Thanks to the Rer podcast network. Remember lots of good stuff coming on the ringer these next few days, as we head toward preview Palooza all day on Tuesday,

I got a chance to see one of the videos, which is almost an hour long. It's definitely the longest one we've done. It's really good. I thought, I thought the team did a great job. Very excited about all this stuff. Very excited for the NBA season. Back Sunday

night with the Cubs. Until then. I feel the air sweating on the wayside I'm a person never once said I don't have to be on the wayside