The Bill Simmons Podcast - Harden Trade 2.0, Brady’s Big Chance, and NFL Playoff Picks With Peter Schrager
Episode Date: January 15, 2021The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares some more thoughts one day removed from the James Harden trade (2:00) before talking with Fox and NFL Network's Peter Schrager about all four upcoming NFL divisional-r...ound playoff games (26:00). Then Bill shares his Million-Dollar Picks for the divisional round (1:17:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Coming up, I have some more thoughts on the James Harden trade.
We're going to do million dollar picks with Peter Schrager and break down all the round
two playoff games.
That is next.
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We're also brought to you by TheRinger.com and The Ringer Podcast Network,
where we had a lot of reactions to the James Harden trade yesterday.
We mobilized.
We love mobilizing when things happen.
Ryan, we're still at a podcast.
I was on it with Jackie McMullen.
The Ringer NBA show had a live reaction podcast.
We had multiple pieces about how it affected the
rockets and the nets and uh the pacers and uh you can check all of it out on the ringer.com
coming up i'm going to talk about the hardened trade and then peter schrager
we're doing million dollar picks first pro tip All right, I wanted to hit the hardened trade just a little bit more.
I talked about it on Marcel's podcast yesterday after it broke.
Just as many quick reactions
as we possibly could have. That trade,
I don't want to say it came out of nowhere because we knew
Harden was going to get traded, but it really seemed
like the Lakers game
and his effort in that game and how
he looked and the vibe on the bench, it just
sped everything up. It was a two-horse race.
It was Brooklyn and Philly.
And I spent most of the day
on Wednesday assuming that Philly was Brooklyn and Philly. And I spent most of the day on Wednesday, assuming that Philly was
going to get them. And it just seemed like they had the one Trump card, which is Ben Simmons.
It seems like they were engaged in trade talks. And with the Kyrie piece of everything about not
knowing when he was going to come back and the fact that it didn't seem like Karis LeVert and
Jared Allen and a bunch of picks was going to be enough to get James Harden.
It just seemed like a matter of time.
All right, Philly's going to get him.
Is Maxie going to be in the deal?
Is it just going to be Tybo and Harden and a bunch of picks?
Like, what's it going to be?
And then the Brooklyn thing just came out of nowhere.
And, you know, the first thought I had thinking about it the last 24 hours and chewing on it is it really is potentially an incredible missed opportunity for Philly that they didn't get him.
And I'm not faulting them for not getting him because I think what happened is they're going to go as far as they're going to go.
They're not going to pay $0.150 on the dollar.
They have a really good team, and they have Embiid, who's totally engaged and looking like an MVP candidate and a bunch of good assets, and they have a chance to make the dollar. They have a really good team and they have Embiid who's totally engaged and looking like an MVP candidate
and a bunch of good assets
and they have a chance
to make the finals.
So you're not going to make
a panic trade
if you don't have to.
I think Brooklyn was
in a different situation.
They were in full panic trade mode
because it's year two
of the Durant experiment.
Year one got thrown out
because he got hurt.
And this was the first full year we were supposed to see Durant and Kyrie together.
We only got to see it for two weeks.
Now the Kyrie status and when he comes back and all that stuff, all that's up in the air.
And I really think this was driven by a fear that they were going to lose a second year with KD here.
That if they couldn't figure out how to navigate this Kyrie situation,
whether he came back or not,
whether he was going to be erratic all season,
however it was going to play out,
they would just miss another window with Durant,
who has been in the league since 2007.
And as we found out with him in the 2019 playoffs, you never know.
And from what I heard,
Brooklyn just got super aggressive to the point that, you know, the amount of picks that they put
into this trade and the risk that they were willing to take with a team, you know, in 2025,
26, 27 with some of those swaps and those picks is about as crazy of a risk as you can take
when you don't know if you're guaranteed to be a finals team. I think when the Lakers did it
with Anthony Davis, and I thought they overpaid too much even with that. And I said so at the
time, and I still feel like they gave up an incredible amount considering they weren't
bidding against anybody else. He wanted to go to the Lakers. He had the same agent as LeBron James.
And the Lakers was going to be the team.
And New Orleans basically extracted as many assets as they possibly could.
But when they got Davis, guess what?
They had LeBron and Anthony Davis.
And they were one of the three best teams.
And that was a lock.
I don't know if I feel that way about this Nets team, you know,
because for some of the stuff we talked about yesterday with Rusillo, but having three scorers
who are used to all having the ball a ton, we've never really seen that work before.
We've seen variations, you know, we've seen Bird, McHale, Parrish, three stars that complement each
other. We've seen Pierce, Ray Allen, KG, where KG took a lot less shots.
Ray Allen sacrificed a lot.
All those guys sacrificed something.
You have Golden State with Durant
and Klay Thompson and Curry.
Klay sacrificed some shots.
Curry was coming out back-to-back MVPs.
He sacrificed a little bit.
And Durant, who could average 35 points a game
if he wanted, he sacrificed a little.
I think the whole concept of sacrifice becomes harder when it's three guys who love having the
ball. And even Durant, some of the stuff he said when he was leaving the Warriors about
that, you know, one of the things he excelled at was getting thrown the ball on the block
and doing stuff with it. Well, Kyrie loves having the ball 25 feet from the hoop,
having a pick set for him, creating, doing his thing.
And Harden excelled the most in an offense
where it was just four guys completely spread out watching him.
So you have these three guys that are going to have to figure out
how do we all succeed when only one of us can have the ball?
And for the other two who don't have the ball,
what are they doing off the ball to make it work?
I think it's not a problem for Durant.
He's shown that he's been able to do it over and over again over the years.
Harden has not had to play that way in literally seven or eight years.
And Kyrie is probably a safer bet to be able to pull it off again
than maybe you'd think just because he did it in Cleveland.
He was able to kind of lie there and waiting during games.
And then when they needed him to take over for four minutes, he could.
My point is it's a huge risk, I think, because I don't know necessarily if this is a championship team.
We've just never seen it.
It always makes me nervous when somebody's trying something
that has never fully succeeded in this form.
Even if you add the usage rates up of the three guys,
it gets to like 90%.
The highest you can get is 100%.
So the reason I bring all that stuff up about Brooklyn
in the context of Philly is
I think if Philly had figured out how to flip Simmons and whatever else for Harden
and they got Harden reengaged with the way Embiid's playing
with some of the shooters they have,
I think they would have been the favorites in the East.
I really would have been surprised if Harden and Embiid,
as long as those two guys could stay healthy, I would have been
surprised if they didn't make the finals. Because the way Embiid's playing this year, he's really
motivated. And he's the guy we've wanted him to be for the last three years. I think Harden,
it could have been reignited. And the combo of those two dudes, I think would have been
potentially terrifying. I'm not terrified yet with this Brooklyn thing. And I think a lot of it has to do with Kyrie's status for the rest of the year. What are we getting out of him?
What kind of reliability are we getting? Now you could argue, could it just be Durant
and Harden and a bunch of role players? Could that be enough? Yeah, it might be. There's no
standout team in the East. Like you look at their team now, Durant, Kyrie Harden, Joe Harris,
Deandre Jordan got benched.
Landry Shaman,
who hasn't played that well,
TLC,
Brown,
Jeff Green,
and whatever two bio guys they ended up getting.
Yeah,
that could be enough.
It was certainly,
you wouldn't have guessed that it was enough for Miami last year.
I look at that Indiana team and from a talent standpoint,
I really liked the Indiana team,
especially when TJ Warren comes back.
I thought they were a stealth contender anyway,
and it had a chance to be the 2021 version of the Miami heat last year in
the bubble.
But the Sabonis Brogdon combo has been great though.
When Warren comes back,
having Levert in a,
as a more stable version of what they wanted from old Depot,
somebody who's not in a contract here, the holidays McDermott Miles Turner who's been really
good this year summer Sumner's been good and uh and McConnell that's to me that's a that's a really
good playoff team um and I'm almost as excited to see them as I was to to see this weird Brooklyn experiment.
So anyway, there's a lot of moving pieces with this stuff in terms of I want to sit in front of a television
and just see how this looks.
With Indiana, it's a lot easier to envision
because LaVert just goes in.
Houston's going to be a mess.
And I think that was another piece of the trade
that maybe worked against Philly
as we talked about the missed opportunity
for Philly here, Philly's going to be good. You're getting Philly picks and pick swaps,
and you have the combination of Embiid, who's a superstar entering his prime, a bunch of other
solid assets. And you have Darrell, who, when he was in Houston, always figured out how to compete
no matter who was on his team. So if you're just looking at it from Houston's perspective,
what has a better chance to crater and bottom out?
It's got to be Brooklyn.
And I'm sure that's one of the reasons the picks were so appealing to them.
Harden only under contract for another two years,
and Durant could get out of there after year four, all that stuff.
I'm sure that was hard to compete against.
I think the key with Houston, two things,
why I think they're actually blowing it up.
No Jared Allen.
They didn't keep him.
Now, they would have had to pay him after the year,
but they just decided they'd rather have a pretty crummy pick over keeping him,
and then they wanted Oladipo in a walk year versus three years of the vert.
All of that points to a team that looks like they're going to really try to gut themselves
and start over, which will put them in the same position as Oklahoma City.
So again, none of this is Philly's fault.
I do think they try to get too cute.
I think there were moments during this, the last three, four weeks, especially when Harden,
I'm sorry, especially when Kyrie and Durant looked really good coming out of the gate
that maybe that's when Philly could have jumped on this.
But it's a bummer because I think Harden on Philly would have been really something.
So Harden's Houston legacy quickly.
He was there eight seasons plus the really crummy three weeks he had this time.
2018 MVP.
He had six top five MVP finishes.
Three second place MVPs, one third place.
He was six first team all-NBAs.
He was the highest non-MJ or Wilt scorer ever for one season.
He led the league in scoring and assists separately.
He reinvented the threes and free throws thing
and basically started a revolution with that.
Became the prototype for this is, if you do these two things at a high level, you're going to be really
successful and maybe you don't need anything else. He was in one of the most famous what if trades
ever in 2012, which is a trade that I think is one of the three or four greatest what ifs in
the history of the league. He perfected the step back three and the Euro step, two things that were kind of
lingering around, but he was the one that really popularized it. And I think the effect he's had
on younger players with, with those moves, um, you know, it's going to speak for itself over the next
20, 25 years, whether you hate it or not. Um, incredible durability. If you look at all the
guys starting with the 2012-13 season,
he led the league in points, minutes, free throw attempts,
free throws, and win shares just for that whole time,
mainly because he was really durable.
He got market corrected by Steph and the Warriors
in a lot of different ways, right?
If they don't get to rant in 2016,
he's in the finals at least one of those years.
And just in general, they were always kind of the slightly inferior version of the Warriors
during that whole stretch, even before Durant got there.
And then I think you go down with that run he had, and you look at that team in general,
that team was really close.
There's no shame in that.
And that's why I defended Daryl, you know, because it's no shame in having the third best team for
a few NBA seasons in a row and a team that came really close a couple of times to win
it all.
I think they'll end up that that Harden Rockets era will go in a group with like the 80s Milwaukee
Bucks, the 90s Blazers, the early 2000 Sacramento Kings, the mid 2000s Suns.
Those teams that they were almost there. They're really memorable. I remember Chris Connolly, you like to use the word critically acclaimed,
the critically acclaimed team.
In this case, the critics kind of hated watching the Rockets,
but what they were able to do short of winning a championship was they,
they were really influential. So all of that's great.
Now, we talked when we did the Book of Basketball podcast
on Harden last year, me and Zach Lowe,
we talked about how his playoff resume
was basically the elephant in the room.
He had a basic no-show in the 2012 finals.
He was really bad in that series,
and people have always thought
that was one of the reasons
he got traded.
Since 2013, he was 3-8
in Houston's elimination games.
Stats were not great.
He got knocked out of the playoffs at home
in three straight postseasons.
The 2015 Clipper Series,
that Game 6, the famous
Josh Smith-Corey Brewer comeback game,
Harden was on the bench the whole time. He was five for 20 in a, in a, in a elimination game and was sitting on the
bench with a towel on his head. 2017 against San Antonio game six, two for 11, 10 points.
And people were wondering, does this guy have a concussion? 2018 against Golden State, those last two losses, he was six for 25 from three, 22 for 51 field goals,
14 turnovers in two games that could have sent them to the title.
And then in the 2019 game six, which is the Steph Curry game,
as we came to know it, where they don't have Durant
and Curry just goes into Houston and they clinch the finals again.
And he's just unbelievable in the second half of that game. Harden had 35 points, 11 for 25. So that was probably the best one.
Then last year with the Lakers, they win the first game and they're just awful the rest of
the series and they have no fight. And you could see them giving up as it went along.
This stuff's always going to be mentioned with Harden. It just is. It's going to be mentioned
the same way that with George Gerben on the Spurs,
it was always going to be mentioned how with Julius Irving on the Sixers, if they didn't win
that title in 83, it always would have been thrown in his face that on the Sixers, he never came
through in the postseason when it mattered. What's interesting, and I made this point on
the Rosillo pot, I'm going to make it again. Going to the Nets kind of removes his fatal flaw, right?
You know, on that book of basketball podcasts I did,
Zach compared him to Carl Malone,
which I was really jealous of,
because it's like, this guy's the Carl Malone of guards.
Year after year, incredible resume,
first team all-NBAs, an MVP,
clearly one of the best five, six players in the league,
but in the playoffs, you don't trust him.
You don't know what you're going to get.
And the playoff performance doesn't seem to match the regular season
performance for whatever reason.
I think with Malone and Harden, there was a similarity why that was the case
where, you know, the more you played this Rockets team in a series,
if you played them seven times in two weeks,
you kind of got used to what they were doing.
And versus like if you're catching them in your third game in four
nights um and all of a sudden they're throwing this weird offense at you and it's just a little
weirder this is the same thing with Malone and Stockton where they would run that methodical
pick and roll and uh you know the half court offense slow it down if you saw it for one game
you know it's a little different than when you're just seeing it every day over the course of two
weeks now he goes to Brooklyn where he can just be good every day over the course of two weeks. Now he goes to
Brooklyn where he can just be good in the first 44 minutes of the game. Last four minutes, he can
just, they can put him in the corner and he could, he could basically be in one corner and Joe Harris
could be in the other corner. Kyrie, who's one of the secret great closers we've had at the guard
position ever. And then Durant, who's the best scoring forward of all time.
Maybe Harden ends up being the third option of this team.
As crazy as that sounds,
this guy's one of the best offensive players of all time.
But if I'm in a playoff series and I'm playing Miami or I'm playing Boston
or I'm playing Indiana,
it's the last three minutes of a game.
I'm picking him third
to be the person I want to run the offense through.
I want to go through Durant and I want to go through Durant,
and I want to go through Kyrie if he's feeling it.
And then with Harden, he almost becomes a luxury.
And the ironic thing is maybe that's perfect for him.
Maybe that's the way he's going to have to win the title.
So that was another thing I thought of.
Then it's like with the Nets, just fundamentally is this a team that can beat the lakers and i thought about this
a lot i think the lakers are prohibitive favorites that they can stay healthy if you are going to
beat them you almost have to be a little kooky right you almost have to be the way the 2018
rockets were with the warriors where they're playing this
style that is so discombobulating that it almost allowed them to beat a team that they weren't
better than. The 2018 Warriors had more talent. Didn't matter. They came damn close. And if they
had hit enough threes in one of those last two games, they would have won. Maybe that's what
happens here. Maybe the way to beat the Lakers
would be a really weird team like this one,
where you have these three incredible offensive players,
Harris as a lights-out three-point shooter,
and you're just kind of bombarding them
four to seven times.
The prototype, I guess, would be the 2017 Cavs.
I think this team has a higher ceiling
for them offensively.
But Durant's in the LeBron role.
Kyrie is Kyrie.
Harden as the Kevin Love.
And then Joe Harris.
You're going to lose a lot on defense.
And I think the defensive piece of this is what would worry me the most
if I was a Nets fan.
Because Durant's already logging a ton of minutes,
and he's going to have to be their crucial defender.
He's going to have to guard the best guy on the other team every game,
whether it's Jimmy Butler.
He might have to guard Sabonis, Jason Tatum,
clearly LeBron if there's ever a series with that.
So unless they address that with some move that I don't see,
that's a big burden on Durant coming off a torn Achilles
and all the stuff that's happened't see. That's a big burden on Durant coming off a torn Achilles and all this stuff that's happened to him.
So on the one hand, I don't think they're a guaranteed contender,
which would have made me so nervous to give up all those picks.
And by guaranteed contender, I mean put them in the finals.
They're playing the Lakers.
I don't feel that way.
On the other hand, them at their best is the East's best chance
to beat the Lakers this year. So that's why I was
so, it's such a fascinating trade. The, the, the heart and peace about him throwing away these
first couple of weeks of the season, that's just going to go on his resume. It's just, it's,
it has to be mentioned and people are very forgiving with this stuff and they forget.
They certainly forgot with Vince Carter in 2004 when he basically decided to stop playing hard for Toronto
until they traded him.
That stuff fades away over time,
but it's not a great way
if you're one of the best 35, 40 players of all time.
It's just not a great thing to have on your resume.
Last thing I had, I was just thinking about,
had Durant gone to Boston in 2016
and I caught him on different podcasts
saying at one point he did really think about it.
Then it was never going to happen.
He just would have stayed in OKC, whatever.
I think if he goes to Boston in 2016,
it's kind of incredible how much the league changes
because first of all,
I think the Warriors probably make a run at Al Horford
or they just keep Harrison Barnes.
Either way, they're weaker.
The Celtics could have potentially ended up with KD
and then Kyrie a year later
and you would have had the KD-Kyrie combo anyway.
I think the Cavs,
it would have been neck and neck with them in the Warriors
because the 2017 Cavs were better than the 2016 Cavs.
I really believe that.
So you could argue they could have gone back to back.
Hayward probably stays in Utah and maybe they don't get Donovan Mitchell. So there's a whole bunch of what ifs that come
out of that. Maybe the Rockets steal a title. If the rant's not in Houston, maybe they steal that
2018 title has certainly been a great time to catch the calves and whoever, um, does Katie ever
get hurt? Who knows the Katie on Boston with then Tatum and Brown showing up
just would have been,
there would have been anything like it.
Three forwards that are interchangeable
at defense like that.
You could argue that those four plus years from 2069
just would have been a lot more fun
than it turned out,
where 2017 and 18,
the finals were basically foregone conclusions.
And I guess 2019 was really fun.
I take that back.
2019 was great.
Does Toronto roll the dice with Kawhi?
If the record doesn't go there,
I don't know.
And then what does Brooklyn like look like?
Does Brooklyn,
are they even in the mix?
If,
if Katie doesn't go to the Warriors and
there's, whether he goes to Boston, whether he stays in OKC for a year, who knows? It's just a
whole bunch of what ifs coming out of that summer, especially when you talk about the cap pumping
and, and then everything that unfolds. And now we end up with the incredible situation where Durant, Harden, and Westbrook, they're all together.
They're all kids in OKC.
They make the finals.
They trade Harden.
And we go, what if, what if, what if for the next few years?
Amazingly, Westbrook ends up with Harden.
It goes terribly after a year.
And now Harden's with Durant.
And then it seems like the natural conclusion would just be to flip Kyrie for Westbrook.
They would never do that, but they would, there might be an outside shot of all three
of these guys in the same team.
Stranger things have happened, but we always wondered what would have been like with Harden
and Durant and Russ, the Harden that we have now versus the six man Ginobili 2.0 type guy
who was an OKC.
And I guess now we're going to find out.
So fascinating basketball trade.
I mean, every time we think we've had
the most fascinating basketball trade,
we have another one.
And it's clear that teams just do not value picks anymore,
that they realize that there's eight to 10
difference-making players every year. And if you can get one of's eight to 10 difference-making players every year.
And if you can get one of those eight to 10 guys in a 30-team league,
you do whatever you can.
We will see if the Davis thing with the Lakers,
the fact that it worked out for them,
whether that was an aberration or whether this is the plan that everybody
should have.
Anyway, fascinating trade.
Cannot wait to watch Harden and Durant together on the same team. This has been quite a basketball season.
All right, coming up, we're going to talk to Peter Schrager and do Million Dollar Picks.
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slash warranty for full details. All right, Peter Schrager is here. You know him from Good Morning
Football and from some of the Fox stuff.
You also know him as the good luck charm of Million Dollar Picks.
Every time he comes on, I win money.
Last week, I promised I was going to do well last week.
We made $147,000.
We're only down $85,000 for the season now.
And I like this week too.
Before we get to this week though, biggest surprise for you for
last week, the way Pittsburgh started. I mean, you had it, you said that you thought Cleveland
was going to win. I don't think you had it in that fashion. Pittsburgh, um, one of the all time
worst performances I've ever seen from a team coming out of the gates. Uh, Ben Roethlisberger
looked a hundred years old and the fact that they were down 28-0 before the game even started,
after watching five games of football
and being upset by the Bengals two weeks ago in similar fashion,
I have no idea how they couldn't be motivated and ready to play that game.
I guess, I don't know what a team's record is
when the game starts with the center snapping the ball
seven feet over the quarterback's head,
followed by the quarterback just kind of uneasily circling the ball over, just following it. And I've never seen a worse play. That was
a worse omen to start a game. And yet you go back and you think like, if they don't punt on fourth
and one and they get that they're down, it's a one score game. And I felt like they had so much
momentum and the Browns were gassed. And, know, as we think about the, the Browns this week and the lesson of round two is always don't overreact around. Hold your horses.
Don't overreact.
Speaker 3 Steeler's fired their offensive coordinator. They didn't pick up his contract.
So he's gone. But you're right. It's, you know, you go into the fourth quarter, it's
a situation where you're like, all right, we're rolling. It could be a one score game
and it's fourth and one in the Browns' territory.
And then Tomlin rolls out the punter.
And Vrabel did it earlier in the day.
And you're like, all the analytics and all this,
and then they still,
and Vrabel's actually good with the analytics.
Historically, he does it well,
and he's got a guy there.
And even then, fourth and two with Derrick Henry behind him,
they're like, no, we'll punt.
And then you don't win.
That's just not how it works. Yeah, So as I look, as I look toward round two
and trying to get the picks that we picked, we picked the winner of every single game last week,
but we only had four or two gets to spread. No, I mean, during that segment, we had all six winners.
Yeah. My, my rule with the playoffs is always don't pick the underdog unless you think they
actually have a chance to win. So the two underdogs, we're going to take over the Rams and the Browns.
We argued about the Browns Steelers, whatever.
I still feel the same way about round two.
Do not take an underdog unless you really think they can beat them.
So if you're taking the Browns plus 10 against the Chiefs, it can't be a thing where you're like, I like the points.
It's so many.
You really have to like talk yourself
into a Brown scenario.
So we'll get to that game.
I wanted to go over the playoff manifesto
with you though.
Yes.
Some of the rules,
because there's some good rules in place.
Rule number one of the playoff manifesto
is beware of the looked a little too good
the previous round team.
Now, I think the Browns do qualify,
even though if you really think hard about that game,
they were scrambling the last two and a half quarters.
The Ravens, to me, are the team this week
that people are fired up about.
That Bills line has dropped to Bills minus two and a half.
The Bills were a team we were all sending
to the Super Bowl a week ago.
And the Ravens, the consensus thought here is they're
back.
Lamar's back.
They got it.
They got this different Ravens.
And yet they only scored 20 points last week against Tennessee.
Why are the Ravens back?
Why are we saying this?
20 points.
And, and, you know, you want to go, they were down 10, nothing in this game.
And Lamar threw yet another terrible pick in that one early.
And if it wasn't for the defense being a way to completely suffocate Derrick Henry,
they might not be able to get out of that 10-0 hole.
You know, the Ravens have all the hype right now, and we'll get to the game.
But you're right.
Manifesto-wise, out of the four teams that won last week in advance,
for sure the Ravens are the one that everyone is suddenly jumping on.
It's weird.
Look, Lamar's lovable.
I think people like Lamar.
He's really exciting.
And it's a classic.
I watched the whole game.
That game was a lot closer than I think people realized.
The Tannehill pick at the end,
even though I didn't feel like he was going to come through,
the guy, what did he trip?
He fell down, whatever that happened.
Corey Davis is out with an injury.
Who's their number two?
So, Kalief Raymond, number 14, goes in for the Titans.
They've been throwing to A.J. Brown all game.
Raymond slips.
Peters is there, intercepts it, and that's how the game ends.
Are you buying the whole, why isn't Wink Martindale getting a little more of a little more shine here in the head
coaching search? What else does he have to do? Big advocate of it. I know it's like a thing right
now, but, um, look, I I'm not paid by any of these agents. I don't deal with them. I have no dog in
this fight. The guy's 57 year old and he has a mullet and we're seeing position coaches from
the Patriots. We're seeing Kellen Moore.
We're seeing Jason Garrett.
Like these guys are all getting interviews.
Wink Martindale's phone did not ring the last two weeks for an interview.
Not one interview.
And I know on very good sourcing that he interviewed with the Giants last year
and came very close to getting the Giants job because he blew them away in the interview.
But those players, like I got texts from a few of those players after I said
something on our show about Wink and how they shut down Derrick Henry.
And Arthur Smith has an interview with every single team this week,
the Titans offensive coordinator, yet Wink's defense completely silenced them.
Those players, it's kind of the same deal that you see with Brian Flores
or some of these other defensive coaches where those defensive players will run through a wall for him.
So I think there's act that actually might play a role in this week too.
Like,
I think those players might be motivated by the fact that their guy 57 years
old and,
and been great for the last several years with them has not gotten a single
interview to be a head coach.
It's a little Mike Zimmery,
right?
When Mike Zimmer forever and ever couldn't get a head coaching job,
then got it and was good the first year with Minnesota.
Ron Rivera too.
If you remember, Ron Rivera interviewed like nine times
and could not get a job and then finally got one
and was a coach of the year twice.
All right.
Well, that's one rule.
Another rule is the don't talk yourself into a nobody believes in us team
unless you got a really good reason.
I would say the Rams are probably the nobody believes in this team this year
because of the whole quarterback situation, which we'll get to.
The Browns technically could talk themselves into a big picture.
Nobody believes in this thing because they were counted out last week.
They came through, and now they're playing the Chiefs.
They're 10-point underdogs, and I guess they could do it,
but nobody believes in the Browns cause they're the Browns.
Yeah.
And they're playing the chiefs, you know?
And they're playing the chief.
So I don't, I don't feel like that qualifies this week.
Uh, when in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and
experts and would definitely go against the single worst gambler, you know, now it's only
Thursday and kudos to me for basically being even for the season, picking all the games
on Thursday during the COVID season.
I think it's one of the greatest achievements of my career.
But it seems like the Bucs might be that pick,
but it's too early.
It feels like there's a lot of people.
First of all, that line hasn't moved.
Most of the money is on
the bucks. It seems like right now it's like a 60 40 split, but then even more of that's on the
bucks. And it seems like that's the one people are pointing to. If they could only take one
underdog this week, it would be the Ravens or bucks, but the bucks because of the saints,
because of breeze with the 11 broken ribs that he recovered from just in general, they didn't
look great against the bears last week. The bears are kind of weirdly in that game. And I feel like by Sunday, the bucks will be this pick.
What do you think? I agree with you. I think the bucks are hot. Obviously we've been talking about
that for weeks, but also the elements, this is indoors. There's no fans. Brady has no excuse
here. This isn't him, you know, 43 years old walking into Lambeau in frigid temperatures
and it's like, all right, this is lined
and they've lost twice to him.
So the old adage says it's very hard
to beat a team three times in one season.
I think the money might go very heavily
towards the Bucs.
All right, well, we'll get to the case
of the Saints in a second.
So we had to tweak.
Oh, rule number 11 is don't ever talk yourself
into a terrible QB ever for any
reason. Came through last week
with Trubisky in a beautiful way.
Did not come through with Washington because Alex Smith
didn't play. And I actually would have been
scared enough of Heineke that I don't know
how
eagerly I would have taken Bucks minus
eight and a half because like you
I watched that one game when he played.
It was like, ah, this guy can actually do a couple things.
It was more like, I really thought if Alex Smith was playing,
the Bucs were winning by a hundred.
Absolutely.
I think the Washington realized that.
Yeah, they were like, oh yeah, we actually can't play this guy.
Rule number 13.
I have to tweak this a little bit.
We take Andy Reid out.
Had to add a relationship twist.
This is important.
Bloodlines.
Before you wager on a team, make sure Marty Schottenheimer,
Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, North Turner, Dan Quinn, John Fox,
Jason Garrett, anyone named Mike, anyone described as Andy Reid's people,
anyone with the last name Maura,
or anyone related to any of these people is not involved.
Well, we had Schottenheimer last week and then Turner.
So the bloodlines were 0-2 last week, right?
Yeah, Schottenheimer got fired after the game.
So Schottenheimer's son, Brian Schottenheimer,
was the OC in Seattle.
And then Scott Turner, North Turner's son,
was the one trying to figure it out with Heineke.
They covered, but they lost.
Yeah.
And then don't try to be a hero.
Just try to win money, which is another one. All right. One more thing for you. So double digit wins in round two. In the old days, there would always be at least two blowouts. And then it got a little wonky there for a couple of years. Last four years, 2016, two of the four double digit wins. 2017, one.
2018, we had two.
Last year, we had three.
Wow.
So we know we're going to have a double digit win out of these four.
It seems like the Chiefs-Browns is just the easiest possible pick for this.
Our friend Connor Schell, who huge Chiefs fan,
he thinks the line of this game should be 20. He's like,
mark it down chiefs by 20 plus the chiefs. We'll get to them in a second and we'll get to this matchup in a second. But is that, is that the overwhelming favorite for this? Or do you feel
like there's some Rams Packers, but the blowout potential, I think it's gotta be the chiefs.
They're home at Arrowhead after a week
off with no one talking about them and watching Aaron Rodgers get the MVP parade. And then the
last point, like they were down 24, nothing last year to the Texans and they won 51, 31. They won
by 20. Like they're just so punishing. Even if you get a little lead, they find a way. So I think
the, the Chiefs with the experience and all that, they are your overwhelming favorite to have the big blowout win.
Okay.
And Connor also said the Browns had their Super Bowl last week,
which I don't even know what that means.
He's not wrong.
Sometimes the team can win the one game and, you know,
they're getting the congratulatory calls for two days,
huge celebration in the locker room, and then it's like, oh, shit,
here's Tyreek Hill and Oh shit. Here's Tyree
Cohen and Travis Kelsey. All right, let's go. You're talking about chiefs fans. They're oddly
like confident. Every fan I know is like such a doomsday fan. I grew up in New Jersey and everyone
in New York. And obviously you in Massachusetts, the chiefs fans are like optimistic and positive
and like always just very proud and confident on their team since they won the Super Bowl.
Must be nice.
Must be nice.
All right, round two.
First game is Packers-Rams.
Let's go.
Man, this looks bad for the Rams. And I really, I came out of round one being like,
I am excited to maybe ride this Rams train
because maybe they're, I said to Sal on Sunday night,
their defense is better than anyone else does anything in the NFC. That would be the case. Well, Aaron Donald is hurt. He got
hurt during that game. He's got some sort of rib there. They're super secretive about it,
but all I know is he came out of a playoff game and we didn't really see him again.
And anyone who thought he was a, the Terminator, uh, a robot, a robot cyborg assassin, it turns out he's human.
It turns out he has bones and tissue like us.
I don't think he'll be 100%.
The question is, will he be like 80%?
Will he be 70%?
What are you hearing in Aaron Donald?
I think he's going to be just fine.
From what I'm hearing, rest him all week.
McVay calls him the Terminator, as you alluded to. He really does. I didn't even know that.
He calls him the Terminator. He says the Terminator will be out there. So they're
assuming he's going to be able to go full strength and they're not going to be pulling
him from the lineup. But what they liked was last week when he came out, their defense got even
better. It was like Morgan Fox started playing unbelievable.
Leonard Floyd was everywhere and they were getting production from those guys that were filling in.
So Donald is, and Roger said it this week. And I thought it was kind of interesting to hear it
from a guy who himself is a first ballot hall of famer, but he was like, Aaron Donald was a first
ballot hall of famer already. If he never plays another game, I'm like, that is such high praise
for a guy who's still in his twenties, but he is, he might be the best defensive tackle we've ever seen this
play the sport. Honestly, he's that good and that destructible to an offensive line. Um,
but he should be fine and ready to go. He is on the short list for me. I've been watching football
since the mid seventies and LT is always going to be the best defensive player I ever saw.
It's like a Jordan thing. It's like, all right, you're going to have to top LT,
and it's going to be a road game for you
because LT, for me, is a home game.
I just think he's the best.
But there's that next group of guys.
I just think Aaron Donald's on it, whatever that short list is.
And I think Reggie White had a few years there
where he was just completely out of control.
But there seems to be a guy
every five years. Aaron Donald's the guy now,
but he's on the short list. And however many people
on that list is really up to the person.
So he's hurt. You're saying
he might be fine. Cooper Cup also hurt.
What's new with him?
I think he'll be alright.
So you're doing two think he'll be alright.
Okay. I don't like that two of their
like six most essential guys are hurt.
Having practiced.
Yeah.
Goff, we got to talk this one out.
Yeah, let's do it.
So Aikman in the first quarter of that game basically tips off that McVay was
just that Wolford was a better option for them at this point in the season.
Now, Goff, broken thumb, no broken thumb.
It seemed like Aikman was trying cause these it's always,
I always try to read between the lines when the announcers are recounting
their conversations with the coach.
We talked to Sean McVay.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And they're trying to paraphrase it to some degree.
They're trying to gain the intelligence from it,
but not say Sean McVay told us he's done with golf.
It's more like, you know, and I think if you watch the rant, Troy, I'm doing Troy right
now.
If you watch the Rams the last half of the season, I just think golf didn't play well.
And I think McVay lost confidence in golf.
So he's pretending like he didn't just talk to Sean McVay for 45 minutes and then does
the whole excited.
And I think they really like what they have with Wolford.
I think he opens up their offense and blah, blah, blah.
So I was listening like, wow, golf's done.
He's never playing another game.
And then Wolford gets nailed by Jamal Adams.
All of a sudden golf comes in with his broken thumb.
But to me, the fact that McVay gave up on golf, whether he's ever going to say that
publicly or not, is a really telling point for this game because Goff still has a broken thumb with the pins in it.
And it's going to be cold.
They're playing in Green Bay.
It's 35 degrees.
That game last week, they're up 6-3.
They get a pick-six touchdown.
Now they're up 10.
Awesome play.
Yeah.
Now they're up 10.
Now all they have to do is run the ball
and occasionally play action,
and he just has to like send passes to
wide open guys. I, if they fall behind by seven, I think it's over would be my case.
All right. So talk, so talk me out of being terrified of Jared Goff and Lambeau with a
broken thumb. Before we get to golf, we'll get there. The McVay LaFleur thing is really interesting.
Okay. So in 2010, these guys meet each other.
They're both low-level assistants with the Redskins,
and it's a Mike Shanahan coach team,
and McVeigh's like a 25-year-old kid living in a townhouse,
and across the street is LeFleur and his wife Bree,
and McVeigh literally was the third wheel,
like would go over there and would sleep on their couch
and would have dinner with them, and any time they went out to Bennigan's or Chili's, they would bring
McVeigh around. He was a little younger, like whatever. They do other separate ways. They do
their things. McVeigh then gets the head coaching job a few years later with the Rams and he poaches
LaFleur to be his offensive coordinator. So now LaFleur reports to McVeigh.
Yeah. And it's just a really interesting dynamic. And last year at something called
the owners meetings, which is basically every owner, every head coach, every GM
goes to some sunny resort in Florida or Arizona. Um, McVay asked me if I wanted to go out to lunch
with him in LaFleur. I'm like, yeah, obviously. And then the fourth guy at the table was Jason
Wallers. Who's the Packers, um, PR guy We're sitting there and it was Daniel Jones's pro day.
And it's on the big screen TV at the hotel, the Biltmore down in Arizona.
And to hear these guys talk football, and I can't talk for shit with these guys at football.
That's not my forte. I would never say I'm the all 22 guy. They're breaking down Daniel Jones's
pro day at Duke. And it's like listening to another language, but they spoke it together. And if you watch what
they do, it's a lot of the same stuff. And it's a lot of the same formations, pre-snap and all
the stuff. One guy has Aaron Rodgers. The other guy has Jared Goff. Yet McVay and LaFleur, like
McVay knows the LaFleur offense and LaFleur knows whatever Sean's running on offense right now,
but who knows what that offense is?
I would just say all the stuff that's working for Green Bay, McVay knows it,
and he knows that Brandon Staley, his defensive coordinator, is going to sit and study it.
So what might have been working lights out for the Packers for the entire season,
it's not new to Sean McVay, and it's not new to their defensive coordinator.
If anything, I think that might give them the advantage.
And last year when LaFleur had to play Shanahan two times in the regular season
and in the playoffs, you saw their offense.
It got completely shut down and Shanahan and the 49ers were able to dominate the Packers.
It would be an argument saying Rogers isgers is amazing, he's the X Factor,
but all the funky stuff that they've been doing,
McVay's a step ahead anyway.
Yeah, see, this is where I'd want to go super nerdy
for a second with the football stuff.
Like, I wonder what it is specifically,
because it's almost like a cheat code, right?
You develop a cheat code, and if you're playing this team
that doesn't understand your cheat code...
Well, I'll give you one little aspect of it,
which I think we might see. And it's, it's stuff that, um, the football defensive coordinator
types always talk about. You've got Devante Adams who by, by far is the best wide receiver in
football. And that comes from NFL defensive coordinator. I think over digs right now,
this guy, what he can do um from anywhere
outside slot everything and i had a coach not either one of these guys tell me you know you
guys on your good morning football show you talk about the andre hopkins and dk metcalf and the
and davante adams in the same conversation that's beyond insulting to davante adams that's how much
better he is than those guys yeah so what you'd think is you would put Ramsey on him and say, okay, let's isolate the two of them. And then let's let Marquez Valdez
Scantling beat us. What you might see from the Brandon Staley defense, which is what the Rams
have done a lot this year is you put Ramsey on Valdez Scantling. Oh, this is a Belichick trick.
You just completely take out the number two receiver. Yeah. And then you double team Adams with Darius Williams and Troy Hill.
And then you say, okay, pick your poison.
You're not going to.
And that might be what you see.
So whereas other teams have tried to, like, line up their number one with Devante Adams, you won't win.
But they've got a defense in place that I think they can do it.
And in the chess match deal, LeFleur knows McVay might do that.
So then how does he adjust to do it off of that?
So I love the mind games.
I love the relationships.
But I don't know if Adams goes nuts
against this Rams defense.
I don't know if he would against another defense.
But this one particular with Ramsey and Darius Williams
and them kind of knowing the offense,
I don't know.
Well, they have the Aaron Jones piece too.
Although Cameron Henry looked good last week.
But Jones is, I just think he can be electric.
He can take over quarters, stuff like that.
So the entire argument you made about why that could be bad
for the Packers offense, I would argue it's even worse
for the Rams offense because they're running an offense
that the other team knows, but they're running it with Jared Goff and injured Cooper cup. And, uh, I don't know. I,
I, this, my buddy Gus always had a, how many points are they going to score roll with some
of these games? And it's like, can the Rams get to 14 points for that? It's hard. And that would
worry me though. Weather team, warm weather team and cold weather.
On paper, it looks terrible.
Here's what I would say.
They had it.
And you mentioned it, I think, with Cousin Sal.
But they had a whole offense.
And Aikman said on the broadcast, whole offense set for Walford.
Like crazy gimmicks and run option.
And then he gets his neck, you know, whatever, shattered.
He's out.
That offense, I wonder if we start seeing something.
And then once golf came in, it was like, we got to run the most vanilla stuff and just get through this game. Now you got a full week and I don't know if it's been announced anywhere else. And
I have no problem telling you here on this podcast, you're not going to see Walford on he's
too early. They announced it. He's out. Yeah. So he's out. And the backup's going to be Blake
Bortles. So if you're betting on the Rams, you're betting on a Goff-Bortles combo.
And the emergency quarterback is Hecker.
So that's what you're looking at.
But I would say McVay's got a deep playbook,
and you might see Robert Woods throw on the ball.
You might see reverses.
You might see Cam Akers throw on the ball.
You might see Wildcat.
There's a chance you see a crazy offense from the Rams because McVay knows going in, we're not going to win with Jared throwing 35 times.
There's also a chance. There's also a chance. I would never forgive myself for the rest of my
life. If I bet on Jared Goff and it's 30 degrees outside in Lambeau and he's got pins in his thumb,
but that sounds like the worst idea of all time. Would you have said the same thing last week if we told you straight up before Walford was injured,
Jared Goff in Seattle against Russell Wilson,
would you say the same thing?
I would not have said the same thing
because I felt like the Rams defense
could actually win the game
because I didn't believe in Seattle's offense.
I really liked the matchup for them
and we'd seen it already.
In this case, Rodgers, Adams, Jones, those are three elite
offensive players, you know? And I also think if they can just get a lead, like if I'm, if I have
the Rams and I'm down 10, I might as well turn the game off. You know, it has to play out like
it did last week, which means you need a whole turn over Rogers. You need like a Rogers fall
apart game,
special teams,
mistakes from the Packers.
I would say,
I don't see that with Rogers this year.
I think he's locked in.
I don't think he's going to have a fuck up game.
Back to Yari.
Who's their star left tackle is out in this one.
They played one game without him.
They put Billy Turner,
Turner at left tackle and they were fine against the bears.
Um,
you're just hoping for a defensive freak show.
That's what it is.
And that somehow the Rams win this game 16-13,
and they do it on a field goal in the last seconds in Lambeau.
And a rusty Rodgers.
And a rusty Rodgers.
The Rams front line, really.
And then the announcers go, man, Rodgers just looks uncomfortable.
He just doesn't look like himself.
I just think he's had too good of a season to have a shit show of a game against Jared Goff.
I don't want to bet on that.
So they're only six and a half.
I know.
Which, by the way, means you can tease them.
He had a bad game against the Giants the year they went 15-1,
the Hakeem-Nicks-Hilmeri game.
So it's happened.
It's happened.
And then they lost to Kaepernick one year, but Rodgers didn't play bad.
It was freezing.
I was at that game in the wild card round.
So he's lost two playoff games in Lambeau.
So it's not this crazy thought.
And then you throw in that there's no fans and it's 4 o'clock.
It's not night.
I don't know.
You can make an argument that the Rams have a shot here,
but you would be within reason to say that just Aaron Rogers losing the Jared golf is just
not going to happen this year. Losing the Jared golf with pins in his thumb. Yeah. So last year
they beat the Seahawks at home in round two, they kind of outlasted them. And then the 49ers was
when it fell apart. Uh, I'm going to mark down the Rams for this.
I just can't
in good conscience, but I have a couple
fun wrinkles of that. We're going to take a break and talk about the other
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Okay.
Second Saturday game.
Bill's Ravens. Awesome, second Saturday game. Bills-Ravens.
Awesome game.
Awesome, right? How good is this?
It's just a fantastic game.
One of the better Saturday night games I think we've had.
Like, so good.
And, like, two cool fan bases that are, like,
not the same old teams.
Like, I love this.
This is good.
Usually this was Patriots against, like, the Texans. 45 to 10. Exactly right. So, a love this. This is good. Usually this was Patriots against like the Texans, 45 to 10.
Exactly right.
So a couple of things.
We mentioned how the Ravens scored 20 points against Tennessee's terrible defense and everybody
had a jerk off fest about it.
Round one was and everything goes wrong for the Bills game.
The Colts were lights out.
The only mistakes they made were like game management decisions.
Rivers,
Rivers was perfect.
The whole game,
which is incredible.
The receivers didn't have dumb drops.
They had 450 yards at offense.
The bills didn't play that well.
And Josh Allen did some young Elway plays and they kind of pulled it out. My first question
is if we believe in the bills, which I think we both do, and we really did last week, I don't
think they're capable of playing two blog games in a row. I think they got their blog game out of
the way. So if you're telling me they're going to play another blog game, then that means this,
the last 10 weeks were a lie because if they're a
really good team, they're not going to suck two weeks in a row. And they kind of sucked last week.
They did. And Alan had a near terrible mistake. That fumble that, Oh gosh,
Darrell Williams, number 75, didn't get any pub this week, but he might've saved the bill season.
He's the big offensive tackle who chased the ball down and fell on it somehow. Cause that ball would
have been Colts down three fourth quarter at the
bills 40.
And who knows what would have happened?
Um,
Alan,
I thought was unbelievable at the end of the first half with those passes
to Gabriel Davis.
And I thought Beasley was gutsy,
all that stuff.
Um,
what if that is the bills though?
Like the,
the Ravens are going to bleed the clock and dominate the ball if they can.
If it comes out and it's Ravens finally get a good start in one of these playoff games
and get a lead and just run the ball with Dobbins and Edwards and Lamar and behind Pat
Ricard, it could be that game that we were talking about last week for the Bills where
you look up with the two-minute warning and it's 7-3 Bills.
And you're like, wait, where'd the first half go and in the second half it might just
be one of those grind it out wait for a defensive play and that one really gives the Ravens the
advantage I've I consider that point um here's the thing I'm not sold that Baltimore can score
a lot of points against any playoff caliber type team.
Now, Buffalo's defense did not look good last week, but the blueprint of it that, you know, control the ball, cut the clock down.
So you're going to be in that 20 to 25 point range against Buffalo. Right.
I think you need more points than that. I think you need big plays, explosiveness.
Just looking at Baltimore this year,
they played Pittsburgh.
That was that weird COVID game, but they only scored 14.
I think Trace McSorley was at quarterback, yeah.
The Indy game in week nine, they scored 24,
but seven was, I think, a pick six.
Yeah, it was Chuck Clark jumping over Phillip Rivers.
Pittsburgh in week eight,
they put up 24.
KC in week three,
they put up 20.
I kind of think that's who they are.
They're low 20s.
They're fine with that.
If it's a playoff game, right.
I just think Buffalo is high 20s to low 30s,
regardless of who they're playing.
I know Baltimore's defense
looked good last week, but I also
thought Tennessee's offense looked bad.
And that missing Corey Davis
was a big deal, and they just, they stacked the line
on Henry, he never broke one. Tannehill
wasn't that good. Like, I'm not
ready to anoint the Ravens' defense
as like, oh, they're ready, here we go.
And the fact that this line fell to
two and a half, I think
it should be three or three and a half.
So all the Bills have to do is win by a field goal,
and I win this.
Like, I like the Bills.
They haven't lost since that Hail Mary game.
So even if they won last week, let's not forget they won.
You know, like, they did win that game.
They're red hot.
I don't know if you guys hit on it on Monday,
but, like, Beasley was so, so tough.
Yeah, he was. And I talked to the guys in Buffalo, but Beasley was so, so tough. Yeah, he was.
And I talked to the guys in Buffalo.
Cole Beasley, he couldn't walk last week.
He gets out there, he goes seven for 70 or something,
and every time he catches a ball, you've got two players picking him up
and dragging him back to the line of scrimmage because he can't walk.
Gabriel Davis was great.
And here's the thing with Josh Allen.
He's from California, but he played his college ball in
laramie wyoming where the average temperature after november is 20 degrees and there's some
horrible weather and he's a six foot six brick shithouse who can just throw the ball through a
wall so the weather stuff it actually gives them the advantage lamar huge advantage i don't know
if lamar if it's cold and windy and we're in a shootout,
if Lamar is going to be able to hit a receiver 60 yards downfield.
I don't know about that.
I don't think the Ravens want to get into that game.
It's looking like 32 degrees with a little flurry stuff going.
Yeah, which is what they play in Baltimore.
It's not like it's zero degrees.
But Lamar, if you want to get into that, has never played in a snow game, which whatever, I know that stuff is usually proved
wrong. Um, truth of the matter is we've been high on the bills all season long. We've been saying
they've been rolling. We've been saying it feels different. It would feel pretty disingenuous to
jump off the bills train right now. I would argue it's an incredible opportunity because
the Ravens are a little overvalued
and I think the Bills are a little undervalued.
The only reason you could argue
for the two and a half is the
Zach Moss piece. I think that
was crucial. It's going to put a lot of pressure
on Singletary and they don't, in my opinion,
they don't have another running back.
I don't know if Singletary
is a 25 touches yeah in a cold
playoff game guy but we're gonna find out but the the piece that they have they just get rid of the
running backs have alan with everything spread out wide let's have him do young elway stuff
i get get half tackled and flick it to dawson knox like that other guys can't do the other
running back is probably gonna be tj yeldon who who is in the NFL still and is going to get some carries for them.
They signed Devante Freeman.
Saw that.
But I don't know if in three days he can get up to speed to go.
Look, they've been really good.
They've been really good at home.
The fans, I don't think, played too much of a role last week.
I don't know if they do it this week.
There's only going to be 7,000 in there.
Under the lights, I don't think Josh Allen's scared of any of that stuff anymore.
Me neither.
I think the Bills are the play unless this is just one of those miracle Ravens teams.
The Bills have to be furious they're not playing the Steelers.
They got to be so mad.
They got to be like, what the fuck?
How do we end up with this potentially frisky Ravens thing?
All right, we're going to mark down the Bills minus two and a half.
Chiefs minus 10. Browns is the first Sunday game. We end up with this potentially frisky Ravens thing. All right. We're going to mark down the bills. Minus two and a half chiefs.
Minus 10 Browns is the first Sunday game.
Clyde Edwards.
Hilaire is back.
Cleveland's old line is banged up.
It's unclear how many guys are not playing,
but it looks like Conklin might be out,
which is a semi big deal.
He's a tackle.
He was great.
Great.
Last week in the big career hunt touchdown,
he was the one pummeling Hunt into the end zone,
and he's obviously a good player.
So the case for the Browns,
you're catching Cleveland after they won the Super Bowl.
The Connor Shells Super Bowl.
You're catching Casey after they've done kind of a Milton Berle,
the Milton Berle,
just pulling out enough to win routine for those last seven,
eight weeks there,
they were on autopilot and a couple of different ways.
I,
I don't think they were like going like,
man,
we got to go all out.
And yet they won 23 or 24 games heading into week 17 when they Chad
handed the,
the chargers game.
They lost.
The only loss was that dumb Raiders game and they lost that Raiders game.
The Raiders scored 40 points.
Yeah.
So the question for me,
if the,
if the Browns are going to hang in this game and if the Browns are going to
win this game,
they're going to literally have to outscore the chiefs.
I mean,
that goes without saying,
but like outscore them in a 40 to 32 kind of Vegas recipe game.
KCSD was 31st against the run.
So you can make the case.
Cleveland comes out, pound the ball, alternate the running backs.
They come out with a field goal.
Bad Chiefs drive.
Browns get the ball back.
All of a sudden, it's 10-0.
Chubb breaks a 40-yarder.
And now Baker's playing ahead like he was in that Pittsburgh game.
And I think they're pretty good when they play ahead.
Not that most teams aren't.
Even then, though, and Kyle Brandt and I were talking about this on the show today.
Let's say you spot them a 28-0 lead in the first half.
Are you taking the Browns to win that game?
Even up 28-0?
The live betting would be like Chiefs minus 130.
Right?
Down 28-0.
We saw this.
Here's the other thing with the Chiefs,
and I think you'll appreciate,
because this is the analogy I'm trying to make of it.
NBA, when Jordan was doing what he was doing,
we would always convince ourselves,
if Stockton can hit David Benoit in the corner,
like the Jets, and then you do the Suns,
and well, here's Phoenix, and Danny Ainge is now there,
and you start convincing yourself that, like,
what if the Chiefs are just the Bulls,
and what if the Chiefs are just the Patriots from the early 2000s,
where you try convincing yourself, well, if this happens,
like, I've seen someone, someone made up a stat
that I don't even know existed until this Chiefs season.
They were like, Patrick Mahomes leads the league in near interceptions.
Like, that's not a stat.
Like, the Elias Sports Bureau is not making that stat.
That is a fake stat.
Like, that is not a real stat.
Like, dropped interceptions.
I'm like, that's what you're arguing with?
I just feel like the Chiefs, they kind of leaning into this.
Like, Mitchell Schwartz had a really good tweet in Week 17.
He's like, I love how everyone's giving Aaron Rodgers the
MVP because of his week 17 performance when our guy didn't even have to play in week 17 because
he was so good. There's something to it where it's like, we know everyone wants to live in an
Aaron Rodgers world. We know everyone wants to get on the Lamar and Josh Allen trains. Like
we're still the mother effing chiefs. Like we can still do this. And I think they might blow
the doors off the Browns.
That was going to be my last point.
This feels like a little bit of a fuck you game.
Yeah.
Where they bring all the toys out of the garage.
Yep.
It was like, oh, we have an M80.
I could see a big Kelsey game.
I just feel like anytime they want to,
they can move the ball down the field.
When Kelsey and Tyreek are out there together, they can always get 11 yards.
Always.
And isn't it?
And I've, you know, I watched them every game this season.
I don't have an example of third and six where my homes doesn't have that seven yard scamper
out of bounds.
He always finds a way.
So even if it is this weird shootout or they're down, like I just don't have any empirical
data over the last two years of my homes, not being able to finish. They're down 10 points with seven minutes
left in the super bowl on third and 15. And he finds a way like it's just what he does. And until
he doesn't I'll roll with him. And I love the Brown story. I think they're great. I think it's
cool. Kareem hunt going up against Kansas city is a cool little subplot here. I don't see it. I just don't. Not an arrowhead.
I don't love the minus 10, and I'm not going to have a huge bet on it straight up.
But I'm not drawing dead with Browns plus 10 when I know they're not going to win the game.
So that would be the third one.
I think the fact that it's the early game is weirdly good for the Chiefs.
I don't know why.
I could just see them coming out and kicking butt.
The last game is Bucs-Saints.
The Saints beat the Bucs twice.
Week one we throw out, that was COVID.
The other one they kicked their ass.
Yeah.
Badly.
Since then, Antonio Brown now fully acclimated.
And awesome.
Left guard Ali Marpin is back.
Apparently that's a big thing.
He didn't play the first time.
Joe Haig was playing instead.
Not the same as Ali Marpet.
Devin White, who did play in the second Saints game,
but then has been missing, but now he's back.
They didn't have him last week.
He can chase Camara.
There's some good Brady.
ESPN had a good blog about what's different about the Bucs
since this game. And one of them was like Brady's
Just getting rid of the ball faster. He was like first nine weeks two point four three seconds in the pocket for each throw now
Since we ten it's two point two three
Teams are starting to blitz the shit out of them
nineteen point one percent blitzes per drop back weeks one through nine now
36.3 percent weeks 10 through the wild card,
but his passer rating went up 96 to 127.8.
I watched Brady for 20 years.
I don't know if you know this about me.
I'm a Patriots fan.
I've heard, yeah.
Blitzing Brady is just never a good idea.
He's always going to figure out which guy is coming
and all that stuff.
The way to beat him is the Giants recipe
of just push the four guys, make them uncomfortable, and then send a lot of guys back.
And when Brady doesn't have it, he does that little thing where he throws it into the ground.
Yeah, he gets rid of it.
And he gets rid of it.
He's smart.
He's like, I'm not going to try to be a hero.
And it's the ultimate frustration for a defense.
It does feel like he's figured out how to click with Antonio Brown.
And I think the Godwin thing, you know, Godwin had some drops on week one,
which probably cost the cover.
To me,
that's one of the reasons
there feels like there's an opportunity with the
Bucs because that was a dumb
Washington game where they win by
eight. They really should have won by like 30.
And Brady looked really good.
He looked really good for weeks
though. He looked awesome last
week. And I know people might have woken up and saw the
score, didn't stay up for the ending.
It was a one-score game. I mean,
Washington kept it there, but Brady wasn't his fault.
Brady was awesome last week. And then on the
flip side, the Saints last week
where Mims drops the touchdown.
Yeah. They won
an awesome play with Mitch.
And then it's still 7-3 forever
yeah
and then finally
yeah
and the Bears finally
fall apart
but the Bears suck
and
I thought their defense
was really doing stuff
I like this Bucs team
my fear with the Bucs is
from an efficiency
well-oiled machine thing
which was a Brady staple in a couple of the Patriots years
where he was like, wow, we might have 40 completions today.
We might have 32 first downs.
They're choppy, right?
There's this guy would drop this play.
Brady misses this guy.
It was third and two and Cam Brady went off his hand.
Someone went on the inside route,
should have been outside Brady shaking his head.
Yeah, a lot of Brady staring at the dude.
And they can't, but they get big plays.
They get these 35-yard, 40-yard,
like they, it's like a home run team.
And I think that's what you need to be against the Saints.
Yeah.
Look, they're all coming back.
Like, I can't stress enough
how important Devin White is out there.
So last week, Roquan Smith was huge not
having him for the Bears. So Camara was able to get frisky, whatever. Devin White runs a 4-5-40,
was an absolute standout. And then he and Levante David, the hope is the two of them can handle.
And if you went back and watched that first game, and I did the Saints-Bucks, which was terrible
for the Bucks, two was terrible for the bucks.
Two really bad special teams plays like a weird squib kick.
That was a mistake.
And then Brady looked off and I just,
and then the next one,
it was just embarrassing.
And that was the Nadir of the season. It was like,
what are we going to be here?
Like we can't lose on,
on,
you know,
for the national audience and primetime at home to the saints like this.
I feel like there's such a better team now.
And the vibe out of Tampa and like Bruce Arians is, the national audience in primetime at home to the saints like this. I feel like there's such a better team now. And, um,
the vibe out of Tampa and like Bruce Arians is, is,
is a cool dude. And he, his whole thing is like,
we're super bowl or bust baby. Like,
it's not this like one game at a time thing.
It's like, we've got a mission here and we know we're an all-star team.
And we know we've been patched together here,
but we are out to win a super bowl. Um, Antonio Brown, when gets another, you know, quarter million dollars, if to win a super bowl um antonio brown when gets another you know quarter million
dollars if they win the super bowl there's all sorts of incentives for all these short-term
contracts that they built in and with brady it's like it's kind of playing with house money right
now like i feel like he if he if they lost in the divisional round all right like first year maybe
next year he comes back and we see what happens for the saints. If it's not
now, it's not happening. Like, I feel like that might be weighing in on this. And I don't know.
I just, everyone that is a part of the Buccaneers, the way they're talking about Brady is the same
stuff you'd hear about new England, where it's like, this guy is just the man, right? Like 20
year old kid wants to follow on black guys, white guys, women on staff.
Everyone's like, he is just emanates cool.
And there's a confidence and it's like, they will not be intimidated going into that game
this Sunday night.
The only thing you left out is just breeze coming up the 11 broken ribs and the ball,
the ball is just in the air.
It's, it's on location every time, but it's in the air for a while.
He can't really move around anymore.
They're always trying to do gimmicks with taste some Hill coming in and
stuff like that.
And,
uh,
it just feels like the saints team is being held together by band-aids
and Saran wrap a little bit.
Yeah.
And Latavius Murray,
yeah,
Thursday Latavius Murray still isn't practiced.
Taste some Hill still isn't practiced.
Uh,
Michael Thomas, uh, you know, he played last week, but is he fully Michael Thomas?
You could pick apart this team.
The truth of the matter is Marshawn Lattimore has owned Mike Evans
over the course of his career.
So let's say that's a wash right there,
and then you've got to rely on the other guys.
The other one is this.
We've had a blast with this C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
He's changed his name three times.
I'm not trying to insult the guy,
but he is the Patrick Beverly of the NFL,
just is a complete agitator.
If he can get inside of Antonio Brown's head,
if he can cause Mike Evans to pop off.
You know he's going to go after Antonio Brown.
This is everything you can imagine. This is Isaiah
whispering. I mean, this is everything
as far as agitators go.
It's Claude Lemieux on a football team.
This is my fear with
the blueprint for me for getting
fucked on this Bucs pick
would be one of those games.
Antonio Brown gets kicked out.
The punt returner drops it.
First quarter.
The Bucs run some Bruce Arians testosterone play,
and it ends up it's a flea flicker that gets picked.
That they fuck the game up more than the Saints win the game is my fear.
But here's my question for you.
It's possible.
You've watched football season.
Are the Saints going to beat the B three times in a four month span?
They're that much better than the bucks.
Cause I,
I think that sounds ridiculous.
I'd be,
I know,
but it's in new Orleans.
I get it.
And their defense is really good.
I personally,
you and I,
I'm taking the bucks.
I think I just can't see them losing three times,
but I wouldn't be shocked.
Obviously, if the Saints are like, we're on a mission, the whole thing with the Saints,
you know, I said it last week, it's like, this is it. Like, this is the core. And they've been
through so much together with the Minneapolis miracle and the Nicole Coleman. And then the
Bucs, it's like, what are we really invested in here? Like, yeah, we'd like to win, but it's not
like we've been through the wars together. I feel like one team is like playing for, you know, a decade's worth of grief.
While the other team is an all-star team.
That's the argument for the saints that this is a bigger deal than just, you know, we're
playing the Buccaneers in a game.
Well, what about inside, inside Brady turf, Brady?
I like Brady.
Like I love Brady.
They had, uh, this year that the sand I'm throwing the Saints game away in week one played in Vegas week seven.
Forty five points.
Atlanta week 1531 and Detroit week 1647.
But in general, Brady was always good indoors.
Yeah, I always all the Pats fans were like, cool, we're indoors.
Brady loves being indoors.
Yeah, including Super Bowls, right?
Except for the ones in Glendale.
Yeah, yeah.
Or Minnesota.
So there was another team.
One of the guys who works for the team texted me last week before Washington, Tampa,
and said, something no one's talking about.
Brady's 43 years old.
He's in great shape, all this stuff.
Look at him in primetime this year.
He's been terrible in primetime, especially outdoors.
Oh, because of the sleep thing?
Yeah.
Yeah, because of his whole deal with his sleep regimen.
And the game starts at 9 o'clock.
This game starts at 6.30, but it is indoors.
And then the fact that they won last week outdoors with an 8pm start
I don't think
it's such a problem
but if you look at it
there is something to it
I don't know
the Alex Guerrero
TB12 method
but Brady has been
significantly worse
at night
than he has been
during the early afternoon
it's because he goes
to bed at like 9
yeah
and he's like
on a schedule
but some games
are played at 9
we're going to take a break
and come back
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I'm going to throw some fun bets at you that we're not necessarily doing
before we get to million-dollar picks,
just so you can...
Lowest scoring team.
Rams are plus 260.
Highest scoring team.
Bills are plus 550.
Packers plus 550.
Okay.
I like...
Do you want my two cents on this?
No, if I'm just throwing stuff out
If anything delights you
Just raise your hand
Where are the Chiefs with the highest scoring team?
Well, they're the favorites
They're like plus 240
Yeah
Neither one of those
I'm jumping on
The Rams are too obvious
And I feel like
There's going to be some weird shit in that game
Well, Chiefs plus 240 is
Obviously I was circling that one.
How about this?
Will any round two game
go to overtime
plus 210?
So basically you're getting
the Buffalo game, which feels
very over. It feels a little over time.
I think Bucks Saints feels a little over time.
You could also
do any of the last seven playoff games go to overtime plus 160, which I think is a Saints feels a little over timey You could also Do any of the last seven playoff games
Go to overtime plus 160
Which I think is a better deal
Because you get next week's games in the Super Bowl
It's seven of them
Let's do that one
I can put one down for
Goff
Passing yards
Over under 219.5
That seems high Under Half passing yards over under 219.5.
Under.
That seems high.
Under.
They're going to win this game with Cam Akers running the ball.
That's how they're going to win this game.
They're not going to ask Goff to throw that many yards.
Under.
That seems like an under.
This is a same game parlay on Fandle.
Rodgers 2 plus pass TDs.
Packers win.
That's minus 184 combined.
There's something to what you said about Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon being the game breakers in this one.
It's the number one defense in the league,
and if it's not Ramsey, this other kid, Darius Williams, is awesome.
I don't see them throwing the ball over the yard.
Yeah, I thought that ad seemed too high.
This one's interesting.
Lamar, 100-plus rush yards.
Ravens win, 4-1.
So you could argue if the Ravens are going to win,
Lamar's going to have to have a game like he had last week.
Yeah.
So Lamar ran for 136 last week.
One of them was the 45-yard touchdown.
The other was the game-sealing 35er.
So you're basically saying you need two big runs from Lamar.
I would say you need one.
And by the way, I don't think they can win the game
if he doesn't have a 40-yard run, right?
You're right.
Yeah.
I actually, okay, 4-1.
I'm in.
I like it.
I don't love it.
I don't think the Ravens can win.
I just thought those odds were good.
This one I really liked.
Kelsey.
100-plus receiving yards. Chiefs win. I just thought those odds were good. This one I really liked. Kelsey. 100 plus receiving yards. Chiefs win.
Plus 196.
Almost 2-1 odds.
So basically you need the one Kelsey
38 yarder over the middle
and then 6-10 yarders
and you're there.
They played the Browns either last
year or two years ago and Kelsey went nuts. Had one of the
coolest touchdown catches you'll ever see. I, I liked the Kelsey one. I, do you,
do you know about the Texas tech Oklahoma game from 2016? Do you know about that?
No. Tell me my homes played Mayfield in a college game and their history is incredible. So
when my homes went on a recruiting trip to Texas Tech in 2013, his host was Mayfield.
Mayfield was the redshirt quarterback for Kingsbury at Texas Tech.
They play video games.
They go out for a steak dinner.
And after this steak dinner and video games with Mayfield, Mahomes is like, I'm coming
to Texas Tech.
Commits.
Mayfield has a falling out with the program.
He got injured.
He leaves.
He transfers to Oklahoma.
They play three years later in Texas Tech.
And everyone at Texas Tech is wearing T-shirts that says traitor with Mayfield's face on it.
Baker goes on to throw seven touchdown passes in the game.
Mahomes throws for 740 yards.
And the final score is 66 to 59.
And Mahomes attempts 88 passes in the game. It's
one of the greatest college football games for an offensive. It's just fun. These two, though,
I just feel like there's a chance that these two get in a little tit for tat action. And
Mahomes went up against them a couple of years when they played Browns Chiefs and went
absolutely bonkers. I feel like it's pretty personal between them. I think Mahomes went up against him a couple years when they played Browns Chiefs and went absolutely bonkers.
I feel like it's pretty personal between them.
I think Mahomes might go scorched earth in this game.
That's a good nugget.
I think Mayfield could also go,
you want to burn your tits off after you bet on him in this game
because you forgot that he's Baker Mayfield
and he's hit or miss every NFL game.
All right.
I'm going to feel these bets out.
That's what the lesson is.
Big on the homes this week.
I'm going to do a test run here
before we lock these in.
Okay.
So we know we like Bills minus two and a half.
Okay.
There's two ways.
I want to put the Packers and Chiefs together.
There's two ways to go here.
You do Chiefs,ers Moneyline Tees.
I'm sorry, Moneyline Parlay.
So they just have to win.
Chiefs Packers.
Just both to win is minus 172.
The one seeds.
So you bet.
You're basically betting 860,000 to win 500,000.
Yep.
And the Chiefs aren't losing to the Browns.
So it would basically be Jared Goff beating the Packers.
That would be that one. Or you could do a Packers Chiefs six and losing to the Browns. So it would basically be Jared Goff beating the Packers. That would be that one.
Or you could do a Packers-Chiefs 6.5-point tease, which is minus 120.
You take the Packers to even.
You take the Chiefs to 3.5.
And you open the door to get screwed on some last-second garbage garbage time touchdown, whatever.
Out of those two, which one do you like?
The latter.
You like the tees?
Do you like Chiefs minus four
or Chiefs to minus
three and a half? Minus four.
I feel that confident.
I feel like Andy's going to empty the bag
and they've just been sitting and waiting
and they're going to come out guns blazing.
And I know Browns fans are listening like,
who is this? Why am I so anti-Browns?
I'm not. I just feel like this is
pro-Chiefs. I actually don't...
Is there a way you can get the
Packers under involved
there? I don't think the Packers light it up on
Saturday. I really don't.
I just... I've wisely
stayed away. No,
I've wisely stayed away
from them forever.
And we saw why last week
with Ram Seahawks
that a game that went over
by seven and a half points
and you like,
like people will be studying
that a hundred years from now.
Okay.
Bucks,
two possibilities
for the Bucks
could go,
could T,
so you could take the Bucks and make them plus three and a half
and it'd be minus one 25. Okay. Um, you do a Packers money line with the bucks
plus three and a half is plus one 38 could do bucks plus three and a half minus 125, just that straight up. Or just bet the Bucs plus three.
Which one sounded the tastiest to you?
I would hate for you to be out of this thing by Saturday
if there was some freak deal with the Rams and the Packers.
I would go strictly Bucs.
And I think the last one you said, just three.
Just three, not even buying the half point you said, just three, just three, not even, not even buying the
half point. No, I would do just three. Well, the other move is if you think the bucks are going to
actually win the game. Yes, I do. That is plus one 42 on Fandle. Can you pair those together?
Bucks.
Oh, the pair together.
That's interesting.
Kyle, it wasn't.
Kyle's like, you don't even have to edit this, Kyle,
because I'm going to hear my excitement in real time.
Bucks plus 142.
Packers minus 320 is plus 218.
Is it worth it it that's pretty good
well I would say
if I could get the Bucks plus 3.5
at the plus 138
I think that's a safer bet
because then I'm covered
if I think it's close
and then we let
Goff passing yards under
we'll put a little on that
I think so
can you get Cam Akers total yards in this game?
Cam Akers total yards.
Let me find out.
I feel like it's going to be the whole offense, receiving, running.
They've got to rely on him.
Wow.
Look at this.
Cam Akers rushing and receiving yards combined, 94 and a half.
I like it.
Is the over.
I like it.
The rule is never bet overs in the playoffs because everyone bets the overs,
and they know that, so they fuck you on it.
But do we think Cam Akers can get to 95 rushing and receiving combined?
Yes.
Okay.
All right.
Would you rather do that one or Jared Goff?
Cam Akers.
Okay.
Because the Jared Goff,
they could be down 20. He's throwing it every
down. There you go. You get your deep
past a Van Jefferson and we're screwed.
Okay. All right. Million
dollar picks. Round two with good luck
charm Peter Schrager. Last week we
won $847,000.
We're only down $85,000 for the season.
Our first bet.
Going big on the Buffalo Bills.
We believe in the Bills.
Minus two and a half over the Ravens, $550,000 to win $500,000.
Next bet, we're teasing the Packers down to a half point against the Rams.
All they have to do is win by a point, teasing them down with the Chiefs,
making them Chiefs minus four,
putting 550 to win 500K.
And that, if the Chiefs,
they win by four, that bet,
I think that side pushes and it gets weird,
but you don't lose.
Next one.
We're just going to go,
just going to do it.
550 to win.
Oh, it's actually less than that because it's minus $1.04.
So $5.20 to win $500.
Bucks minus three.
I'm not going to buy the half point.
I believe in you, Tom Brady.
It's the most vanilla, standard.
It's so fun.
Let's go.
And then just so we have money on the straight up in every game,
we'll put 50K on Chiefs minus 10, 50K on Packers minus 6.5,
and then we'll put another 50K, Cam Akers over 94.5 yards,
and then we'll put 25K on Travis Kelsey,
100 plus receiving yards,
and the Chiefs win.
That's plus 196.
And then just for shits and giggles,
25K and the Chiefs to be our highest scoring team
at plus 240.
I feel good about that group in Peter Schrager.
Oh my God.
I feel great about it.
I can't wait.
Let's play.
Let's go.
You don't like that I went against the Rams.
Something about the Rams scares you.
No, you can tell.
You can tell.
I can't pick against them.
I just feel like, yes, I am friendly with the coach and all that,
and that's whatever.
But I just genuinely feel like this is one of those bizarre games early on
Saturday, and the Rams could pull out some crazy shit.
So maybe I lose 35-0 nothing and I'm proven wrong, but I wouldn't have been all in on
the Packers six and a half and all that stuff. All noted. Um, I'm going to hop on the Jared
Goff with pins in his thumb in Lambeau and 30 degree weather horse, and I'm going to ride it
like secretariat Peter Schrager. thanks for coming on, as always.
You're the best, dude. Thank you.
That's it for the BS Podcast.
I'll see you again on Sunday night with Cousin Sal right after the fourth playoff football game.
If you want to get a head start on the rewatchables,
got First Blood coming on Monday.
Sly Stallone, one of the greatest action movies ever made.
Yeah, that's coming.
So you can watch that.
Enjoy the weekend.
Stay safe.
We will see you Sunday night. Yes, we can. On the wayside.
I'm a person never lost.
I don't have to ever.