The Bill Simmons Podcast - Haunting NFL Mistakes, Week 2 Panic Meter, and Million-Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager and Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: September 16, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by NFL Network's Peter Schrager to discuss classic mistakes NFL teams make (1:37), and where teams rank on the post-Week 1 panic scale—including the Patriots, Ravens, Dolphins, Cowboys, Cardinals, Eagles, Broncos, Packers, and more (41:28)—before kicking around some bets for Million-Dollar picks (29:30). Then, Bill talks with The Ringer's Benjamin Solak about some upcoming Week 2 matchups, including Ravens-Dolphins, Patriots-Steelers, Packers-Bears, Bengals-Cowboys, Broncos-Texans, Panthers-Giants, Browns-Jets, and more (55:09). Finally, Bill reveals the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 2 (1:24:29). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and Ben Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air?

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beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lights today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Put up a new Rewatchables on Monday night. We did singles, 30th anniversary. So that was exciting.

We have a good one coming up for Monday. Here's my only hint. Ryan Rosillo and Brian Koppelman are the two co-hosts with me for Monday's rewatchables. That's all I got for it. You'll have to put two and two together. Coming up in this pod, we are going to talk football with Peter Schrager

and Ben Solak, like always. And we're going to try to do a little bit better with Million Dollar Picks. I love week two. I love the slate. We have a lot to discuss. I cannot wait. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. Peter Schrager's here from NFL Network and Fox, and we're going to talk about mistakes. There were some mistakes made on this podcast with the picks, although I honestly don't feel that bad about my picks last week.

Jaguars, Carolina, they look great. The Pats, throwing the Pats in the parlay, I guess, was the bad one. But just, I was thinking about mistakes because one of the themes as we head into week two is teams that made mistakes and how much they regret them. So I have a couple examples for you and we could talk about them one by one. First one, Justin Jefferson, who looked like the best player in the league, non-quarterback last week. And you think like he went 22nd in that 2020 draft. Ruggs went 12th to Vegas, Judy 15th to Denver, Lamb 17th to Dallas,

all defensible at the time. The one that wasn't defensible at the time was Jalen Rieger, 21st to Philly. They've already traded him. He goes 22nd. Jordan Love, 26th to the Packers. When you think back to that draft, I don't remember anybody saying this guy has a chance to be the best skill position player in the league. What did we all miss? You know what's funny? I go back to my notes from the combine and that was that year and it was all those players and CeeDee Lamb put on a show because he had a catch along the sideline where he kind of did a tippy toe and a one-hander and it set everyone ablaze. Like this is the dude. And even he went after Ruggs and after Judy. But the Jefferson note was this. He had the greatest college season you could ever imagine with Burrow throwing him passes. He had all these stats, but it was almost like a one-year wonder deal. And they're like, yeah, but he's going to run a four, six, four, seven 40 comes out there, runs a four, three 40. And it kind of left a lot of scouts confused because he was faster at the combine that maybe he revealed on film when Rager was taken. If you remember the Vikings brass at the

time, Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer, the video afterwards, they're doing like fist pumps, like, oh my God. But around the league, it wasn't this amazing shock. Like it wasn't like, oh my God, they took Rager over Justin Jefferson. If anything, it was all right. You know, Rager's the guy who's going to take the top off. He's your deep threat. He was going to go first round also. And Justin Jefferson went right after him. When I watched the NFL films, mic'd up coverage this week of Matt LaFleur in front of Aaron Rogers coming up to Justin Jefferson and being like, dude, you were unstoppable. When Aaron watched the NFL films mic'd up coverage this week of Matt LaFleur in front of Aaron Rodgers coming up to Justin Jefferson and being like, dude, you were unstoppable. When Aaron Rodgers takes Justin Jefferson and brings him in and is like, you were the best player in the field today. It is

unanimous. This guy is that dude. And I don't think anybody at that time saw him as that type of talent. That said, you look at it now in hindsight, it's 2020 and you can say, come on, Howie Roseman, how do you take Jalen Rager over the guy who was so good at LSU? I think it's a defensible mistake, but it's a mistake. I go back to the 84 draft Patriots had the 16th pick and traded out of the spot to the Niners who took a guy named Jerry Rice. And I don't know if Jefferson has a chance to be Jerry. Hold on. The hyperbole police is here.

Oh no, they're coming to get me. Here we go, Jerry Rice. I don't know if he has a chance to be Jerry Rice, but he is certainly on pace. And I was like, I thought what he did on Sunday was jaw dropping. It's magnificent. They had no chance of covering him. He wasn't just open.

He was just, he was just coming across your TV with nobody there. And I really felt like he could get 2000 yards. Burkhart's call on the, on the, I think the big touchdown was, how is he so open? Like that was Kevin Burkhart's call. And that was what everyone was saying. And it's, I go positions, right? So it's like, you can kick the bears for taking Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson. You could kick the Arizona Cardinals for taking Andy Isabella, a pick before DK Metcalf. This one, in hindsight, of course, and Howie Roseman will live with this Rager one, but like

Justin Jefferson has become such an unstoppable player. I don't think anybody had that being the scouting report. Ironically, that's our Monday night game, or one of them, Minnesota going to Philly. And I just feel like this Jefferson thing is going to be lingering over the whole game. I like Minnesota. We'll get to that later.

Second type of mistake. The casual fan mistake. I think this is the Russell Wilson trade, possibly. I don't know for sure. Think about what they gave up for him. First and 22. First and 23. Second and 22. Second and 23.

They traded a 22 fourth for a fifth. They gave up Shelby Harris, who was good in that Monday night game. No offense, true luck. And then they gave Russell Wilson the five-year $161 million guaranteed deal. The new ownership, there's a little new owner syndrome in there, but this was the classic. This guy was so great in the mid-2010s. He was off the last couple of years. Well, we can excuse it all these different ways. Monday night, he looked like the same guy he looked like the last couple

of years. He's not the same athlete. There was a couple of times when I felt like he could have run around. He just didn't. He missed some throws. The one play to Judy where he underthrew him to the point that it was an easy touchdown and it turned into like a hard one. I just wasn't impressed and I thought it was pretty telling. I know it's been discussed for five days, but, or four days, but his coach was like, it's fourth and five.

You just gave this guy 161 million guaranteed and you're trying a 64 yard field goal and you're actually like setting it up to kick a 64. What are the odds that, what did you think the odds were that that was going? I would have put it at like 50%. Very little. What are the odds that, what did you think the odds were that that was going? I would have put it at like 50%.

Very little. I think the stat I read was like two out of 42 times has a kicker made a 64 yarder or more in the last 10 years. And then fourth and five, exactly. It's like 45%. So the odds itself, even if you're just looking at it in a vacuum,

made no sense. I've spoken to Broncos people and it's like, if that, and this sounds crazy, if it was an eight yard gain from Javante on third down and it wasn't a nine yard gain. And if it was to the 47 and not the 46, they would have gone for it. But Brandon McManus told them on the sideline, I'm not blaming McManus. He's like, get it to the 46 and the left hash. I can hit that. I will hit that 46. Of course he's going to say that.

He wants the rock but the other thing is this bill like uh they iced him and he was way off when they iced you and you get that free kick yeah does the coaching staff not think like all right that was that was no good let no they were like trot them back out there let them try it again it was abominable by hackett the two the two moment it's funny because day ball was the other way with the Giants, where he was just like, we're fucking going for it. He was like, fuck it, we're on the road, let's go. And then you have Arthur Smith, who's on like the 42 in New Orleans, up two.

Chance to put away fourth and one. You're going nowhere anyway. You're not a playoff team. This is a game that you ram that first down. New Orleans' front line wasn't even good in that game. No, Cordero-Peterson was running wild. Yeah, and instead they punt it and it backfires and they lose.

And then this one, you got your new QB, you just gave him all that money. Do you believe in him or not? And it's the scenario. If you're playing against Detroit in week 13, fine. You're in Seattle. Imagine that locker room. You come back and you convert that because Russell got it.

Or if you don't, you hold your head up high and you say, all right, well, I was putting the ball in Russ's hands. You have no questions to answer. No one's going to question you. The truth of the matter is, Bill, they fumbled twice on the one yard line. They had 12 penalties. They scored six points despite being in the red zone four times. There's a lot of reasons they lost that game. I mean, they put up over 400 yards. I don't think Russ looked terrible, but I hear you on your point of like everyone's response being like, wow, they just got Russell Wilson thinking this is 2016 Russell Wilson. It reminds, I was trying, I'm trying to like, as you're talking,

I'm racking my brain. There's been a few of the, I'm making like Albert Pujols getting the giant deal from like the angels. Right. Yeah. I was thinking NBA. It's almost like those NBA trades where you get the NBA star. Who's like 32. Right. Like a get the NBA star who's like 32.

Right, like a little older. It's like, he's still a star, but it's like, hey, is he? Like, I'm trading Chris Webber for Mitch Richmond. Yes, but what version of Mitch Richmond am I getting, right? That's a good example. Yeah, Mitch Richmond. I would be really concerned if I was a Broncos fan. Really?

I would because- I feel like you washed that game away. That was week one in a weird environment with crazy shit happening. And you say, okay, week two, we're going to use- I get it. But I wanted, if Russ was still that guy, that's like a Kaiser Soze, I'm burning down the house game. And he just didn't look like that. To me, he looked exactly like he looked last year. Maybe it'll flip. I don't know, but I'm worried. Anyway, all the stuff they gave up and the guaranteed contract, and I'm not positive he's a sure thing. So there's a little new owner syndrome.

So that's two mistakes. Third one, the home run swing mistake. We don't have to litigate the Lance trade again, but they gave up the 13th pick in 21, first in 22 and 23, and a third in 22 for a guy that I have no idea if he's good. I mean, I'm going to give him benefit of the doubt for how bad the weather was and all that stuff. But at the same time, maybe,

I mean, the other guy, maybe right. The other guy did at the end. I don't think either guy was that great in the game, but the, the, I don't know.

I, all of this, there's so many red flags. The fact that they kept Jimmy G, the fact that, okay, what's the bigger mistake though? What's the bigger mistake? The trade itself, which is whatever, or the doubling down and without him winning the job,

saying he's our guy no matter what, even though Jimmy just took you to the end. Because we've been down that road. I mean, this is like Heath Shuler's the pick by the Redskins and no matter what, they're starting him, even though Gus Farratt outplayed him every single time. And the opposite of this would be like Brady getting the rock from Belichick and being like, I don't care about where you were drafted

and what we're paying Bledsoe. You give the ball to the guy and the Niners just gifted Trey. Look, Trey might be the better quarterback. It's still very early. But for him to get it out of the gates and it to be a no-brainer, even though Jimmy's still under contract at the time for $25 million and just took him to the NFC Championship game, was a wild decision. That might be the mistake.

Maybe you let Trey win that job or you go to Trey. But to say in February, Trey Lance is our guy, it's RG3 and Cousins. Or the opposite being Russell Wilson and Matt Flynn. Russell Wilson won that job and was a third round pick and Pete had the confidence to say, gosh,

I got to give it to the best man. Trey Lance has kind of given this job and I'm curious to see how this plays out. Which never works in football. It doesn't. It's just that the team knows.

Yeah. Rossello and Van and I were texting about Bryce Young the other day during that game that Alabama pulled out of their asses. Well, I was like, he reminds me of all the things I don't like about Kyler. And Rossello, during the game, was saying, the guy's got incredible poise. That's his best quality. He's just completely comfortable at all times. And then at the end of the game, he started doing that stuff. He's awesome.

It's like, oh, I see it. He is awesome. I haven't seen the poise. Lance has been thrown out now a few times. And again, pouring rain. I'm going to give him a little bit of benefit of the doubt. I don't see the poise with him. He looks like somebody who just...

It reminds me a lot of Trubisky actually with those Bears when he'd only had like the 17 college starts. And he just, it looks like everything's too fast for him. And I think this week, their big favorites this week,

it's allegedly a nice spot. And, you know, they're playing Seattle coming off an awesome win. This is like the classic letdown game, short week. It's all the makings. And if he looks the same kind of just the no poise thing again,

I think there's a real concern. You'd have to have it. I watched that entire game back yesterday, and they're up 10-0 when Debo fumbles that ball, and then it just goes complete. But they're up 10-0, and that's the thing. What I always thought was, give this kid a little bit of a lead. Right, and it's over.

And it's not, though. That scares me, and I know. I'm going to be with you on this one. That's of a lead. Right. And it's over. And it's not though. Like that scares me. And I know I'm going to be with you on this one. That's an asterisk game. It was in pouring rain. But do you think like he's an incredible athlete? Because I think in my head, I thought he was going to be this

like Michael Vick level runner. And I don't think he is. Haven't seen it yet. You know, and Kyle is a better athlete than him. Yeah. Kyler was an all world athlete. You know, Kyler was the best baseball player. Alan's seen it yet. You know, and Kyle's the guy. Like, Kyler's a better athlete than him. Yeah, Kyler was an all-world athlete. You know, Kyler was the best baseball player, NFL player in the country.

Allen's a better athlete. Yeah. I would say there's multiple quarterbacks who are just clearly better athletes than him. So we'll see. That and the 201, which you couldn't fault them for where they took them. They've clearly looked for replacements,

which I think is a bad sign for him, right? They kicked the tires super hard on Brady. They kicked the tires super hard on Watson. I don't think they're totally comfortable with them. This is going to sound like sour grapes because they pretty much kicked the Pat's ass last week, but I said this on Sunday. I thought if Tua played better, that was like a 40 to 10 type of game. And he just didn't. New England had no business being on the same field as the Dolphins that day. And they only lost 20 to 7. They were hanging around.

I'm like, how are they putting up more points? Tua did not look great. And I got a lot of tweets and people around, because I'm good morning football. I'm sort of critical to it as anyone can be. And it's the same sensitive thing with the Tua. Like, see what that pass to Waddle. That pass to Waddle was a good play.

It was fourth and seven. It was a great touchdown. He was wide open in the middle of the field. I don't know what to tell you. Any quarterback who couldn't make that pass shouldn't be in the week.

Yeah. And I'm curious to see how it goes with the Ravens defense and Lamar being able to go blow for blow this week with him because I didn't come away thinking Tua was out. And like McDaniel

in the postgame locker room was like, where's Tua? Everyone know Tua. And everyone's like, yeah. And I'm like, I don't know. I don't know. So them taking Tua over Herbert is going to be one that will sting forever. But that's the NFL draft. That's what happened. Well, it's the home run swing mistake, which was my third type of mistake. That's Trey Lance, the trade. That's Tua coming off this really bad injury and just being like, well, if he's back, it's like we got the number one pick. And then the Herbert piece. But at the time, it was a little like the Jefferson thing.

The fourth type of mistake is the sunk cost mistake. And this is one that I think is pretty indefensible. And it's the Kyler contract. And then on top of it, trading the 23rd pick for Marquise Brown and the 100th pick. And just, you know, maybe this isn't working, but you go, it's like the couple that they don't know whether they should break up or not. Yeah, let's have a kid and we'll get three dogs too. And maybe if we had more people in our life, it'll make it better. Kyler's contract guaranteed five years, 189.5 million.

And they had to trade the first rounder just to get this receiver that he was allegedly comfortable with. They were one of the three worst teams in week one. We're going to find a lot about them in week two. I just, if I'm a Cardinals fan, I don't know what I'm looking for this next half decade we built around this guy that

seemed disinterested again in the second half of that game just seemed like he didn't really want to be there and this is the leader

of our team and we've seen this over and over again it's a team that's died two years in a row and this year it looks like they're dead out of the gate

that's the scary part I would be really nervous about them. That's the scary part. And I'm trying to go through my brain. That move, you do that. And I'm not saying to Carl, but a lot of teams do this. You do that to almost, it's almost like self-affirmation for the organization that we got it right. We got it right and we're doubling down. We got it right because the organization, instead of it being buyer beware, it's like, no, no, no. We're going to double down. We love our guy. We drafted him. Tell me if I'm wrong. I'm trying to think of an NBA or baseball. Tell me if I'm wrong.

Probably 2018, 2019, the Sixers giving Ben Simmons that max deal. At no point had he proven, I'm the alpha, I'm the leader, but they're like five-year extension, whatever it was, 180 million. We're doubling down. This is part of the process and we're not wavering. That's our guy. And at no point did Ben Simmons show that because they didn't want to go all in and then say, well, we're backing off. At least in his case, he had at least been a borderline all NBA and he was great defensively. Zion's another one where it's a little like the Kyra contract,

but at least Zion had this moment where showed signs where he was just seemed like he was like one of the most destructive offensive players

think and Kyler's had moments like there's no question, especially the first half of the season. But now you're all in on him. You're all in and

you have you've missed a couple first rounders. It looks like the Simmons Collins picks, I'm not sure. I just don't see a lot of talent with them. And we'll see with Seattle if that was a fluke last week or what. But Arizona would be my pick to be the fourth team in that division. Look, you said it to start this.

They finished the season limping every single season in the last few years. And they came out of the gates and did not look like they had any fire. They did not look like they had any juice. J.J. Watts already injured. Hopefully he comes back. Rondell Moore injured. That was the worst defense we watched last week, right? I don't even think it was close.

Oh, dude. I mean, Mahomes was just methodical. It wasn't like he was... You know what's scary? It wasn't like 29-yard passes downfield.omes was just methodical. It wasn't like he was, it wasn't like 29 yard passes downfield. It was just methodical killing them. They scored 47 points and it felt like they took the dogs off

and they called the dogs off in the fourth quarter. 33 first downs? How about that? Nine different receivers catching passes. Mahomes, five touchdown passes. Not even like, it was that big of a blowout. This thing with Kyler will be interesting.

It's like you buy a car for a lot of money and you like the car and then... Well, in this case, you're buying like a Maybach. Yeah, you're buying a Maybach. And then it's off. The lease is off. A souped up Maybach. And you're like, fuck it.

Let me sign a bigger lease. You know, like that's what it was. Yeah, that Maybach that I got the 2018. It's actually really in demand. It's worth more than I paid. We'll see, right? I don't know. They play the Raiders this week,

and it's in Vegas. Raiders coming off a loss. I think Devante could have a field day. Raiders coming off a loss where they left. I thought Carr left a lot of throws on the table in that game. If he plays better, I think they win the game. I was surprised by how competitive they were and how much he kind of killed them.

Staley had a decision late there that almost got the Raiders right back in. It was crazy. I'll say this, the Cutler thing. I watched his post-game press conference stuff. I've kind of been monitoring. I will say this. He had a different sort of attitude this week than I expected he would after losing by 30 points,

whatever they did. I'm not throwing the towel in on the Cardinals just yet. Okay. I have a fifth mistake, but we're going to take a break. Football season is underway, so now is the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back. If your first bet doesn't win, just sign up with promo code BS. We're about to

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Okay, the fifth mistake is the most important for the discussion we're going to have. It was the Deshaun Watson trade, aka, you could either call it the karma mistake or the unnecessary mistake. They trade first and 22, 23, and 24, third and 23, fourth and 22. Give them a five-year deal, 230 million guaranteed, so they have no outs. You and I both noticed the same thing last week in that Carolina Browns game. The Browns are actually good. They're really good. The Browns have a really good team.

So you can look at this two ways. You could go, hey, if you add Deshaun Watson to this, like remove all the baggage and all the philosophical stuff and anything else you want to put. Ethical. Ethical. Just take the football player

and add him to what we watched last week. That's a team that might be in the AFC title game. On the other hand, you didn't need to do it at all. And if you just traded like a third for GBG and kept all your other picks and kept adding to this roster they have, that also might've been a team that made the AFC title game. That was, I think, my biggest surprise in week one was how athletic and fast and, I don't know, kind of badass the Browns looked. You felt the same. Yeah, I texted you this during Sunday's games. The Browns look fucking awesome.

And it's not the quarterback. The quarterback is whatever. They looked so dominant in the trenches. And they have just these young guys that are coming out of nowhere that I'm like, all right, who's 97 Perry and Winfrey flying all over the field? Why does Greg Newsome look like he's going to be an all pro corner second year guy? Jeremiah Owusu Karamoa, the second year guy to Notre Dame flying all over the field. And they're one of those teams. And an NFL coach put it to me this way, because I was asking, did we all just mistaken the Browns and write them off because of Brissette? He's like,

they get off the bus and they scare the shit out of you based on how big and how physical they are. Garrett comes off the bus. Then he's followed by this. He's followed by another beast. Their offensive line is so good. They're loaded. They got better on special teams. They got two good cornerbacks. Two great corners. And oh yeah, after Garrett walks in on defense, you've got Chubb and Hunt that just pound you. That's a style of football that the quarterback position is almost negligible. Like you could put Brissette in there. You could put Baker in there. It was in week one. It was negligible. I mean, that was like the- But like you could put Case Keenum on that team and they'll win a game. Like they'll win games

with all those types of guys. So the Watson trade, I don't know if it was a mistake giving up all these draft picks and paying him all that money because the team is built to win with really just a competent quarterback, hand the ball off, get the ball to your good players and let defense win games for you. It's a Jimmy G team. It would have been the perfect one. Their defense last week against a Panthers team who looked good in the second half, who had two receivers that were getting open, who had McCaffrey.

They held them to 54 rushing loud, 261 total yards. I had the Panthers in that game, so I watched a lot of that game. And the Panthers finally unlocked it. They just hit a couple deep throws. Hit the Robbie deep one, yeah. And then Brissette, for once, actually made a couple plays.

But in general, the feeling I had the whole game was, God damn, I didn't realize the Browns were going to be this good. Yeah. And this kicker is a different kind of, I mean, this kid out of LSU, Cade York, it's a 58-yarder. And it's like, all right, that's another weapon. And he's good. And he's one of those deals that, yeah, he's worth a 58-yarder. And it's like, all right, that's another weapon. And he's good. And he's one of those deals that like, yeah, he's worth a fourth round pick.

Yeah. So they have basically everything except the QB. And again, Brissette was not good in that game. He didn't kill them, but he did make some throws on that last drive. They needed him to get like 45 yards there in two minutes. He made some plays. I go back to what I was sort of saying on your podcast last week, and I kind of clarified it on Good Morning Football a little bit. I think we all ethically did not want to talk about the Browns much. And I think on the field, we all assume that the quarterback was such a downgrade from Deshaun Watson to Jacoby Brissett or from Baker to Jacoby Brissett that they wouldn't be able to compete. That's vastly underrating how important the other parts of the game are.

And oh yeah, by the way, Kevin Stefanski, coach of the year, really good communicator, got those guys ready to play. They play the Jets at home. They're unveiling. Joe Thomas is going into like, this is going to be one of those environments. And I think Browns fans, as Cleveland fans often are, spent the entire summer being told that their team was the fourth best team in the division and that they're, you know, they're all in the wrong morally for rooting for this team right now. So there's a bunch of different things working right here where I could

see the Browns. Yeah. There's a little us against them. There's a little, nobody believes in us or nobody likes us. There's a little, wait a second, just cause we don't have Baker Mayfield. We're not good anymore. Like, did you watch Baker Mayfield? There's a piece of that. I'm mad I missed it. I feel like this was all sitting there and could have seen it. They're playing the Jets this week. The Jets defense.

So either the Jets defense was really good last week or we should be really concerned about the Ravens offense. The fact that they don't have really any running backs right now. They were missing their left tackle. They only had 13 first downs, which I think is a good sign for the Jets. Yeah. They're missing their backup left tackle too. And Lamar had a few big ones and those are pop plays to Duvernay a couple of times he hit them. But overall, I don't know if that was the blueprint for a Greg Roman defense. I know the Jets lost it on paper. You're like, Jets didn't even compete. No, like their defense, it was a lot of three and outs and a lot of like the Jets stopping

the Ravens on third down and Lamar. 13, 13 first downs is like a paltry amount. Yeah. And then on offense, the Jets were two for 14 on third down. To me, I, one of the bets I'm looking at for million-dollar picks is Browns tees down with the under. The under is 40.5. Bring that up to 46.5. Browns just have to win.

The game goes 47. I don't see a world where there's 47 points in that game. With Flacco, in Brissette, the Browns are going to pound the ball. It just feels like one of those games that it's over at 345 on the East Coast. It's one of those two-hour, 45-minute games where you're like, what happened? Is that game over already? Yeah. The red zone is in the third quarter on one game and Jets-Browns is over already. Yeah. One of those. I could see that. I could see it being a low-scoring game and the Browns just handling the Jets by- Browns are a teaser candidate for me.

Whatever it is. Yeah. There's a couple teaser candidates because you have the Bengals minus 7.5 against Dallas. What'd you make of Salah's thing? Do you see Salah's headlines all over New York this week where Salah came out and said he's taking receipts and all the people mocking him? What was your take? He's

won four games as a head coach. I think he's been a disaster since he showed up and that team does not seem well coached to me. I would be quiet if I were him. I also didn't understand the Arthur Smith thing. Yep. When coming out super aggro, it's like,

dude, you're the guy who punted on fourth and one on 42. Can we keep receipt to that? Yeah. The thing is, you know, the players will run through a wall for Salah. And that's like where the rub is. Like he did that for the players, obviously. That was his take. And like Jim Fossil did that with the Giants a few years back and they were

ready to go on a run to the Superbowl. It works, but you know, New York media, that's all they needed. And they've been sinking their teeth into him. Nah. Well,

speaking of that, let's do a little panic meter. We'll just rip through this really quick. Scores from one to 10 Baltimore offense. I'm at probably a 4 because we know Dobbins will come back. I didn't realize Dobbins tore his hamstring too when he tore all

his ligaments. He practiced today and it's being treated like a big deal. Gosh, that's a serious series. It feels like he's not back to week 6. He's been gone 14 months. Ronnie Stanley's out. Bateman and Duvernay. Duvernay, I think, is going to be your classic.

Speed guy. Everyone picks him up. Go. Everyone picks him up week one fantasy, and then he's starting to get waived by week four, week five. I'm at probably a four out of 10 with their offense. Where are you? Yeah, I'm about a panic meter.

I'm about a little bit higher. I'm more of a five or a six because I think the Greg Roman offense has been employed for a long time. And the thought was, all right, but that was last year when they were struggling down the stretch. That wasn't with Lamar. Then it didn't have any pop to it. Week one against the Jets. I'd say I'm more of a five or a six just because of who they have to play against in the AFC. I don't know if that offense is going to be able to keep up with the Bills and the Chiefs long term. Trey Lance, I'm at an eight.

I want to see him in nice weather. It could be a three next week. I'm not as concerned. I'm going to say six. I'm going to say six because of the weather and because he didn't have Kittle. He's not going to have Kittle this week. It might be Kittle didn't practice today. I know.

I know. I just, I wouldn't. That game last week, I take a lot less credence in than anything. I don't, I'm not panicking just yet. What about the whole preseason and the fact that they ended up bringing back the quarterback who they had hiding in a closet for a month and a half. I hear you. Tua, I'm an eight and a half.

Yeah, I'm not. I'm with you. I'm seven or eight. And we might be proving the fools. I can just tell you how I felt having the Pats

and Underdog Parlay plus the Pats are my team. And every time Tua was back to pass with some time, I thought he was going to throw us a pick.

Kyle and I were watching that game going, throw it to us, Tua, throw it to us. We just had complete confidence that he... And he tried. He tried to throw a cut.

We dropped a couple. Yeah. Um, I just don't see it. And I think Mike Daniel, McDaniel is going to get the best of him. If that's the best, like all off season,

we heard that too. He was throwing this amazing, like I didn't see it week one. I'll be curious to see it against a good Ravens defense. So yeah, I'm with you. I'll tell you this. It is freaking frightening to go against Tyreek and Waddle.

How good are they? I didn't like that at all. And if they can figure out how to harness Tua at all or maximize whatever he's good at. Maximize. Maximize. Which I guess is just two-step drops, quick throws. That's what he's good at.

That's there. That's there, though. And McDaniel can coach that. Yeah. Yeah. The Pats, I'm at a five. Oh, I'm at a 10. That was...

Tell me why. That was... That offense was a neat... I'm at a five. Oh, I'm at a 10. That was... Tell me why. That was... That offense was a neat... I think they knew it. We knew going in that there was going to be... That offense was atrocious, Bill. I was a 10 on Sunday.

Now I'm a five. Talk me out of a 10. Now Mac has back spasms and Mac is missing practice because of non-COVID. I don't know. I thought the defense was very good and I thought they moved the ball

that opening drive, but at no point does it feel like that team can go up and down with a team offensively. It was really bad. Well, I thought we were going to go 7-10 this year, so maybe that's why I'm at a 5. Okay. Actually, the defensive line,

there were some really good pressure numbers. I was starting to silver linings. They looked great. They had a 43% pressure rate. I was like, whoa! The Amazon next-gen stats say? Yeah. They ran the ball.

They had a couple good drives. They really lucked out with playing Pittsburgh this week with no TJ Watt, who was a one-man wrecking machine in week one. And limping Najee. And limping Najee, who either way, if Najee plays and he's hurt,

that's good for us. If he doesn't play, that's good for us if he doesn't play that's good for us didn't you feel though like and I know that there's been a lot made in the media about Kendrick Bourne only having I think

two targets and only getting thrown two ones it's very strange didn't it feel like it was a great talent disparity the Patriots offense

to the rest of the Dolphins offense and defense like didn't it feel like there was three units that were really belonging on that field and there was the Patriots offense I the rest of the Dolphins offense and defense? Didn't it feel like there was three units that were really belonging on that field and then there was the Patriots offense? I just think Tyreek was so clearly

better than anyone else in the game. And one of the things McDaniel did was he was just like, hey, you know what I should do? Get Tyreek the ball. Go one yard. I'll throw you a little nothing and go. Here's a little quick reverse. Here's this. Here's that. Go deep this time. And, you know, man, he's a nightmare.

Dallas, I'm a 10. I was probably an 8 heading into the season. I actually think they have a chance to be a top five worst team this year. Yeah. If Dak's out for a while. The part with the Dak, him getting hurt was like, they looked terrible before he got hurt. They couldn't move the ball at all.

And he looked awful. Awful. I, you know, you have so much money into Dak and Zeke and Ty and Tyrone Smith. Now you got two of those, three of those guys out. And so it's like,

all right, Zeke, you make 16 million a year, whatever you make, like, can you care us? And it's not even a question. It's not even like,

there's not even a thought that, okay, well, they've got Ezekiel Elliott. They could just rely on him. Like that's not anyone with reality. Like looking at this, it's like, that's not going to win the games for them. So again, talent on offense,

offensive line atrocious. They are so invested on this steal on the offensive line. He had three penalties in one drive. It was bad before Dak got hurt. The Dak getting hurt was almost a scapegoat. And I don't think they're going to potentially make a leap once he gets back. So I'm with you. I say eight or nine.

Arizona, I'm probably higher on the panic bender than you. I'm nine and a half. No, I've got serious concerns. I picked them to go to the playoffs and I watched them on Sunday and I don't see how

they're going to win a lot of games this season either. So you're an eight? I'm probably a seven or an eight. It could be a long season. I love how you won't commit to a number. You're like, I'm in the seven, eight range. I'm putting you seven or an eight. It could be a long season. I love how you won't commit to a number. You're like, ah, I'm in the seven, eight range.

I'm putting you down for an eight. Yeah, eight. How about the Eagles defense? I listened to, we have this great Philly pod now with Gilles Capati and Solak and they're just like dissecting the Eagles defense.

You know, like, it's unbelievable. Like, it's the mortgage market on some financial podcast. Oh, it's such a niche thing, right? But I've got a friend, Larry, who's unbelievable. It's the mortgage market on some financial podcast. Oh, it's such a niche thing, right? But I've got a friend, Larry, who's diehard Eagles, and they win. And I expect his usual fly Eagles fly emoji or whatever the hell he's going to send me. And instead he's like, I'm wallowing in three drinks over here. I'm like, why? He's like, this revamped defense sucks. Jonathan Gannon, our defensive coordinator sucks. We're old as shit.

Everyone's old. Why are we getting older? I'm like, I look at it. I'm like, our defensive coordinator, sucks. We're old as shit. Everyone's old. Why are we getting older? I look at it. I'm like, you guys were up, I think, 38 to 14. They had a couple touchdowns at the end. You still won. I wouldn't stress yet, but Eagles fans seem like this is the end of the world based on the way the defense played. They couldn't stop the run and they couldn't

get pressure, which I think were two things Eagles fans were counting on. I'm at a seven and a half for them. Where are you? Eagles defense only. I'm at a five. Minnesota Monday night. Now we have primetime Kirk on the one hand, but on the other hand, we have this Minnesota offense that looks like a juggernaut.

It's a fun game. Yeah, it could be a good one. Denver, I'm at a three. I'm with you. I want to see another week. I'm not ready to panic yet. A little panicky about Wilson, but in general, they put up yards. Judy looked amazing. At some point, they're just going to have to accept

that Javante Williams should play all the time. We've been talking about this since last year. You and me, two years. Just put your best guy in the field. He's the best guy on your team. He had nine yards

every time he touched it. The first half, it was like, oh, let's go hand up to Javante. He's carrying three guys on him. They dump it to him. He just gets 10 yards. I'm with you. Not at all panicked about the Bron half. It was like, oh, let's go hand up to Gervonta. He's carrying three guys on him. They dump it to him. He just gets 10 yards. I'm with you. Not at all panicked about the Broncos.

Actually love the way Hackett handled it Tuesday. Salivating media. We've seen a million coaches come out and be like, we trust our numbers. We trust our process. He's like, you know what? In hindsight, I would have done it differently. But okay, let's move on. Like I said, 12 penalties, two fumbles on the one-yard line.

Crazy shit happened in that game. I think you wipe it off. You clean the board. Russell, week two against Houston, go to work. Well, maybe he had fumbles on the goal line because Melvin Gordon had one of them. How many times has he fumbled inside the five-yard line? A lot of Melvin Gordon in that game. Green Bay wide receivers, where are you in the panic meter for them?

Panic meter five, Green Bay wide receivers. Where are you in the panic meter for them? Panic meter five, Green Bay offensive line eight. All I heard about was Bakhtiari and Jenkins and how beefed up they didn't make it to week one. Bakhtiari's... And you know, it's interesting, Minnesota didn't really torch them either with all the injuries they had.

So I wonder if that's, if there's a week where that comes, where that line just gets demolished. Yeah. I felt like Rodgers was doing a little happy feet at some point. And every time he would escape, Z'Darrius Smith was in his face. I'm a little concerned about things that aren't receiver. I feel like they'll figure the receiver out. Watson was open. We know he dropped it, whatever. But I look at that offensive line without those two studs, and then I look at no Nathaniel Hackett and no Luke Getze.

That's an offensive coordinator. That's a quarterback's coach. And if you ever watched Rodgers on the sidelines the last two seasons, his MVP years, he was in both those guys' ears and he was talking with them. Tom Clements, Adam Stenevich, they might be the right mix,

but it didn't look like Rodgers was at exact ease behind that offensive line when he was on the sidelines. AFC South having a team finishing over.500. What's your panic meter? I'm at a 9. I think we're going to get an 8-9 or a 7-10 or a 7-9-1 AFC South champ. That's where we're heading. Not a good division.

Not fun to watch. One team gave up a 13-point lead. The other team gave up a 20-6 lead. Disgusting football from all those teams, including the Colts, who I was like, well, the Colts had it. Stephon Gilmore and Yannick Ngakwe, and I'm watching Rex Burkhead slice them up. What was your take on Lovey's decision to just punt it away? It was rough. I was thinking about the first half for them. They're just like the young team. They're like the rabbit team. They can do okay for a little while, but it's not going to be three hours. Remember the Patriots game with them last year? Same thing. They were up early and then Mack just kind of chip, chip, chip.

I felt like Lovey was just trying to hold on and felt like he could steal it. But I got to be honest, we didn't watch a ton of Colts-Texans on Sunday. It wasn't in the quad box. We went into OT and Kyle's like, that game's in OT. We were like, what? So I had to catch up on it after.

But I was surprised Pierce didn't play more. Anyway, I just don't see a roadmap to a nine-win team in that division. The one that I was the most enchanted by was Jacksonville. Yeah. Because I felt like Jacksonville

gave away that Washington game. They dropped touchdowns. Wentz, this is what he does, he just hit two great throws. Yep. And Dotson caught him. And next week,

he could throw seven picks. Like, you know, it's just the way it goes with them. But I thought Jacks, I thought they hung around. They look good. I thought they gave away the game. And I do think there's upside with them. Eddie N, as the game went along,

he started, I felt like, really started to assert himself. Yeah, James Robinson looked good too. Defense isn't great. No, I was going to say they had two rookies. Trayvon Walker, the first overall pick. Walker was good. Flying all over. And there's a lot of criticism.

And now listen, Trent Balke is one of these guys that will always take the sheer athlete over the college performer. And they took Trayvon Walker over Aiden Hutchinson, who was a Heisman runner-up. And people rolled their eyes. They're like, that's just Balke trying to flex on the rest of the league that he knows better. Walker looked amazing he looks like an absolute freak out there and then Devin Lloyd

out of Utah the linebacker had 11 tackles like Jags very good young talent and they didn't win that's what happens with young teams on the road

they're not going to win those games they're going to find a way to lose but Christian Kirk six catches 117 yards they look pretty good

Lawrence looked pretty good yeah they look pretty good thought there was pro tips. We'll come back. We'll talk about some of the games. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

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over 1400 lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit mx.ca slash businessplatinum. All right. We have to figure out an underdog parlay. I thought last week we went 0 for 2 on the parlays and the Seahawks, which was Solak's favorite pick last week, they hit, but the Jags let us down on that end. We had Pats Raiders, which Pats, we were wrong,

but Raiders, I do feel like they could have won that game. There's a couple I like this week. We mentioned the Dolphins. They're plus three and a half against Baltimore, plus 160 to win the game. I just thought they were fast. I thought defensively how blitz crazy they were. There was a couple of plays where it just,

you know, some of those times with the defense, they have fast defenses or blitzing, and you're just like, you know, some of those times with the defense, they have fast defenses or blitzing and you're just like, I don't know how to, how, I don't know what the answer is to stop this. Mack was just getting crushed. Lamar, that's something that's given him issues over the, over the past, especially if you don't have a running game to keep them honest. It comes down to, do you want to bet on Tua in Baltimore against the Baltimore defense? But I think that, hey, look. The plus 160 is kind of tasty. They beat

him on a Thursday night last year, and it was hot as shit in Miami. It was different conditions, and the Dolphins just ran the Ravens off the field, like 20-12, but it really felt like it was 40-12. You mentioned that pass rush. Jalen Phillips is going to be one of the elite

pass rushers in the sport. He was a first round pick last year. And they've got these young Christian Wilkins all over the place, but the guy, I love stories. All right, quickly, indulge me for one minute. This guy, Cater Covey, did you hear about him at all? He's the guy who had the forced fumble at the end. Undrafted, right? Undrafted, was born in the Ivory Coast. his family wins the lottery when he's nine years old and with the money they emigrate to the united states okay from the ivory coast learns football goes to texas a&m commerce where he has a career it doesn't go drafted whatever shows up to dolphins camp is like the best player they have a bunch of injuries finds himself on the field week one and was basically their player of their game and And they have an already defensive back that's loaded. I love those stories. And this Dolphins

defense has layers of them. There are so many good players and they're so young and they come in waves. I am with you. Let's take the Dolphins over the Ravens. I'm with you. Warren Sharp was on the Dolphins big time this year. And he's more bullish on Tua than I was, but that I was NM, but he was, he was, he liked the team and he thought they were going to make a step up and he thought there was a spot. I looked at them long and hard for that last playoff spot and ended up going with Denver. I put them in. I couldn't do it because of Tua, but the Tua thing might not matter with how good this team is for them to get to 10 or 11 wins. And to your point, McDaniel will realize what Tua can do and can't do. And he's a coach where

he's going to put that quarterback in the best position to succeed. He's not going to ask Tua to throw it 59 times. Well, what happened to the running game last week? That's the big question. Non-existent. But was that because the Pats? I think so. Because their D-line? It might be. Yeah. And they got to figure it out. Mostert and Edmonds both were getting touches, but we'll see who the guy is. And if it's not, if they go with the Niners thing where it's just everyone touches the ball,

that's what it is. I think it's a nice spot for them because that Ravens team, when you think about their offense, the Jets defense just can't be that good. And we know they're going to have trouble running the ball this week too. We know they're going to blitz Lamar.

Dolphins, let's go. I think that's a piece. So then on the other side, And we know they're going to have trouble running the ball this week too. We know they're going to blitz Lamar. Let's go. I think that's a piece. So then on the other side, we could go with the Jags. They are plus three and a half against Indy. At home? At home. They're plus 160 for the money line.

Jags last week. Now you could say this is a case for the Jags or a case for us not to put them in a parlay. 13 penalties, four for 15 on third down, two drop touchdowns. Wow. That won't happen again. And they still almost won. You clean that up. I don't know what I was supposed to see from the Colts last week that made me think that's a playoff team or close. Especially like now you go into overtime with the Texans and it's like, all right, at this point, you guys should take care of business here, right? And they couldn't even take care of business then. How much do you put into the thing that the Jaguars have been the Colts' Achilles heel for the last couple of years? That last year they beat...

It's a concern. Does that make you think that the Colts don't sleep through this game? That the Colts have a message? Or is it like, Matt Ryan wasn't on this team last year. Most of these guys don't give a shit. It's on to next year. The way the Jaguars win this game is that the Colts show up like they did against the Texans last week. And they think it's going to be a cakewalk.

And then they get punched in the mouth and they've got to come all the way back. Well, I have two more possibilities for it. We'll hold on the Jags. All right. I'm not sure on the Jags. They might be a straight up pick where you just take the plus three and a half. I'm just going to throw it out there. I'm glad you're sitting down. The Atlanta Falcons, plus 410. Talk about it. Talk, hey, I'm not laughing at all. Couple things here.

Now, I like them more with the plus 10 and a half because I don't think the Rams are going to be, they can't run the ball. When you have a lead that high, I need to be able to run the ball and get first downs to put away that last quarter when you're up 17. And I don't think they can run the ball and get first downs to put away that last quarter when you're up 17. And I don't think they can run the ball at all.

Not sold on their offensive line at all. Atlanta lost that New Orleans game because they fucking gave it away. But their offense was pretty lively in that game. And that was without Kyle Pitts. That was with Kyle Pitts doing nothing. The plus 10.5 is more intriguing to me because I do feel like they're going to be able to score. And that was without Kyle Pitts. That was with Kyle Pitts doing nothing. if you do the plus 410 and then you grab the Dolphins plus 160, that is a 12-1 underdog parlay.

Atlanta, Miami. So that's one option. I don't know if I could see Stafford and McVay losing their first two home games of the season. Going 0-2 seems unrealistic. At home, yeah. I do like the 10-and-a-half. So here's what I think we should do.

If Miami's one of them. You like Minnesota on Monday night, right? I do. Plus 112. We're cheating a little bit. But if you do Miami and Minnesota together, we're at plus 451. And I think that's a move.

I want to get a win. I want to get a W on the board. I actually think Minnesota should be favored in that game. It's not an overreaction thing. I just think they're good. And from what we saw from Philly, with the fact that they didn't really seem like they had a pass rush,

they didn't really seem like they could stop the run, Minnesota to me is just a much better version of a Detroit team that was able to put a lot of points on them. And I don't know. I just like it. I'm fine with that. I'm fine with that. It's one of those deals where it's cousins in prime time on the road, which is always worrisome.

And then it's also, do the Eagles come out at home with A.J. Brown coming off what he does? Does he just feast on that Vikings team also, which is a possibility. But I'm cool taking the Vikings there. Hey, I think the listeners, we don't get a great... We obviously, you get with Sal on Sunday, we hear Monday morning, but what'd you make of the Monday night football?

I felt like it was amazing to have Monday night football back and feel like it actually... I thought they were great, Buck and Aikman. I thought it was almost too good to be true. Right? And I don't work, hey,

we don't work for ESPN. We don't work for ESPN. No, they were so good. I'm an objective guy. It was like, and then I flip over to Peyton and Eli and I'm like,

all right, different cup of tea, but also great. Like, it felt like Monday Night Football was back. Yeah, I just watched Buck and Aikman. What else do you need?

Those are, that's the best announcing crew we have right now. They were great. They were. They were. Only other one for underdog parlay is Carolina.

Carolina is plus one and a half on Sunday. So you can technically shoehorn them in. They are playing I'm blanking the Giants. And you think the Giants are down 13-0. Barkley was superhuman. They flipped itants. And you think the Giants were down 13-0.

Barkley was superhuman. They flipped it around. And now there's like a little Giants buzz. But we also, on the flip side, it's been a Giants party for a week, which is never a great sign. And if Bullock makes a field goal that he usually makes, then none of this exists. That happens. Saquon looks so good and all that stuff. And as a New York resident,

watching New York be happy about a football team for the first time in six years, I'm not going to weigh in on this one. But if you were to take Carolina, I wouldn't say you're crazy. Yeah, the question for me is underdog parlayers straight up for them. Because it's plus one and a half. You could just grab that too.

You could also put Carolina at T's. To bring it full circle from what we talked about before, I thought Carolina and Cleveland were good in that game. Carolina was really good. Sometimes that week one, we overreact one way or the other. It's like, oh, that team, they looked that good because this other team was bad. But then the rare case is like, both these teams are just good. And then four weeks later, we realize it. I think Carolina might be good. I think so too. And I thought they played

really well in the second half, even though Cleveland was in the lead, like Carolina didn't stop. And then they started getting things going on offense. And again, you talk about a field goal kick. Bullock misses the 47 yarder, which by the way, that late game management by the Titans was inexcusable. They get the big game to the kid, the rookie out of UCLA Phillips. And then they immediately go back two yards, take a knee, call a timeout. And it's like, we're settling for 47 yards.

When they had a timeout, they could have gone and done. It was awful. Time and timeout. And it's like, we're settling for 47 yards when they had a timeout, they could have gone and done. It was awful time and time again. So on the flip side, Carolina is winning that game. And Kate York hits a 60 yarder that, you know, it's like miraculous. And he's running.

Yeah. What were the odds of Brown's kicker was going to nail the 59 yarders? I was like, that was, I'm watching that. I have Carolina and I'm like, this is great. No way.

A Cleveland kicker is going to be, and he makes it. So do you like Miami and Carolina plus 440 or Minnesota and Miami plus 451? I like Minnesota more. Okay. We'll lock that down. Any thoughts on Buck Saints before we go? Because a lot of people pouring dirt on Brady with this New Orleans owns Brady thing. And it's making me a little suspicious. Yeah. Sean Payton's not there right now. They win that game, but I always thought Sean Payton and the Saints had this attitude and this persona and this swagger about them when they played Brady. Let's see if Dennis Allen and the Saints are the same thing as Sean Payton with what he's

coming in with. I'm not going to just assume that what the Saints did the past two years, they're going to be able to do again. Where was that swagger persona against Atlanta when they basically did jack shit that game? I don't think that Saints defense is here this year. To me, there's some value with that because people are just bringing in the history of the last

few years. No more Peyton. Not sure about the D. All these people just be like, oh yeah, Brady never wins there. It's like, what team has owned Brady? Even when they talk about how the Dolphins, oh, they own Brady. It's always one and one. Patriots beat Miami 75% of the time when he was in New England. It was fun. My question, I told you about Julio. I know it's week one. I said last podcast, Mike, they're raving about him. He was taking an

end around on one play. Like, I don't know. Am I crazy to think Julio might be back? Quote unquote. I thought Julio was one of my shocking things a week one because he looked fast and athletic. He looked like Julio. He looked great. And by the way, he's going against like the third D-back

on the other team, which is another thing. I thought Fournette looked good too. They, you know, the offensive line, it's a shit show, but with Brady, it almost doesn't matter.

He just, you know, he decides what he's going to do where it's, where I think the thing I was thinking about with them was like the over and the under stuff where just not having Gronk around, like from the 20 in, I think they really missed that. Yeah. That was like his guy inside of the 20. And then. So now you're just looking at Evans making one of these crazy catches.

I had this note that it didn't make it into Fox's Sunday show, but Brady, when he was gone for those 11 days, and everyone thinks he was sitting with Giselle and they were looking at each other longingly. Alex Guerrero flew with Brady to Bahamas and was working out with him every single day. He missed only four practices. It's not like Brady was either in this deep meditative state where football wasn't on his mind or that Brady was vegging out or Brady was partying.

Brady was still working out and then he got back and didn't miss a step. So I think that was overblown too. I think Brady's going to be just fine this year. Yeah, people were acting like it was, it was like Clooney and the descendants, like just sat in Hawaii somewhere. No,

I guarantee it was working out every day. Still one of the weirdest off seasons of any superstar in any sport, but we'll see. All right. Peter Schrager. Great to see you as always. Say hi to the good morning football crew. It's been fun to watch you guys.

Say hi to the Fox crew. What's the Fox game this week? What's the main event game? What's the national game? Don't know. So guys, watch that game. Yeah, watch that game. He doesn't know what it is, but it's going to be awesome.

It's probably Bucks Saints. All right. Good to see you, Schrager. You're the man, dude. Thank you. Life and death were two very realistic coexisting possibilities in my life. I didn't even think I'd make it to like my 16th birthday, to be honest. I grew up being scared of who I was.

Any one of us at any time can be affected by mental health and addictions. Just taking that first step makes a big difference. It's the hardest step. But CAMH was there from the beginning. Everyone deserves better mental health care. To hear more stories of recovery, visit CAMH.ca. When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe.

Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly so you won't hear them coming. You won't hear them coming.

See, safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really? Really, really.

Ugh. This message is brought to you by Metrolinks. All right, digital superstar Ben Solak is here. He premiered his new YouTube show, The Playlist, which you can find on The Ringer's YouTube channel. A little 10-minute, a little snapshot. You were, you're a little bullish on Trey Lance. You're buying people's Trey Lance stock, it seems like.

You can have mine. I didn't have any, but if I did, I would give it to you for free. The dude has attempted 1,500 passes in his lifetime. We've got to give him a day. We've got to let him get more needs to go. Trigger and I, we talked about it.

Give him a line that can play. That Niners line is going to be a problem this year, man. If Lance doesn't develop, I promise you, the interior pressure is going to be a big part of, man. If Lance doesn't develop, I promise you, the interior pressure is going to be a big part of the reason why. Well, it's basically Trent Williams and four dudes from the street, right? Yeah, it's Trent Williams, Aaron Banks, Daniel Brunskill, the right guard's name, I don't know.

And then Mike Mvenje. Right guard came out of nowhere, man. Bedford or something like that. When you don't know someone's name, that's how I know they're anonymous. Because that's pretty hard to stump you. I feel bad, but like that always for me

is like a red flag. Like if I'm like, oh, I've never heard of this cat. Then I'm like, I don't know if he's going to be good. This scares me. That was the Cowboys receiver they played,

Dennis Houston against the Bucs on Sunday night. I was like, who we got out here, fellas? What's this? What's happening? I'm staying away from Niners Seahawks.

I think that Trey is the most interesting subplot of a game that I will not have action on this week because I want to see some poise. I just want to see stuff that makes me feel like he's going to be remotely confident. As you said, not a lot of reps for him yet. Can we go to Bengals?

Oh, let's go to Ravens-Dolphins because Schrager and I spent a lot of time talking about it, how the Ravens offense, how dicey they looked last week. Neither of us were that impressed with Tua. We like the Dolphins in that underdog spot. It's a good time to catch

the Ravens when they can't run the ball yet. But what do you see in general from that game? Yeah, so there's reason to pause on both sides of the ball. I think that for the Ravens, you really wanted them to come schematically with something new. They kind of got rid of Marquise Brown and like, oh, we're going to change what we are on offense.

We're going to keep Greg Roman because he's decided he's going to develop. And then they were largely the same as they've always been. They were under center a lot more and ran some under center play action, but they continue to just be like a vertical stretch team. Lamar led the league in average air yards per attempt. So how far downfield are you throwing the football? Lamar, head and shoulders above everybody else, 12 air yards per attempt.

Well, without Marquise Brown, with like Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay and Rashad Bateman, Isaiah Likely, that's not really a winning passing game model. And with no J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards, yeah, the running game was insufficient. They get a Dolphins team, though, that dominated them last year,

embarrassed them on national primetime television last year. Ton of blitz looks. They had no answer. Lamar's been asked about this. The coaching staff's been asked about this. And they have communicated that they believe that they have schematic answers. They're going to be okay if they get those blitz looks again.

I'm not sold that they've schematically changed everything to be able to deal with cover zero but what i do know about cover zero blitzes right seven dudes on the line all of them are coming man coverage behind is that it's very volatile the game that the dolphins played against the ravens was one of the best defensive performances they've had because sometimes you run that blitz xavier xavian howard just kind of like stumbles and all of a sudden it's not a pass breakup it's a 70 yard catch and run touchdown right it's a very feast or famine style of defense I think that with as talented of a quarterback as Lamar is even though the passing game didn't change that I wanted to the potential for a couple explosives against blitz and the return of JK Dobbins has

me feeling good offensively the Dolphins offense to me is made up. It's not real. I don't. Week one, they're clearly trying to figure it out with Chua, but I'm not feeling great about what I saw from Chua in week one. I feel really bad when I saw that offensive line in week one. I don't buy the Dolphins offense. Is it possible that Pat's defensive line is really good?

It's better than I think we thought it would be. The fact that they are starting, not starting, but rotating Jelani Tavai in is disgusting. I didn't even realize Jelani Tavai was still in the league. Who's 48 with the hair? And I was like, there's no way Patricia got Tavai on this team. But he did. They had good reps.

But this Dolphins offensive line isn't solid outside of Teron Armstead. There's liabilities at both guard positions. Hunt didn't play well. I think center is still weak. Connor Williams moving to that position. And critically, a good quarterback, a quarterback that has good response to pressure that's comfortable,

will make a bad offensive line look better. He'll solve problems for you. Tua looks so uncomfortable. And it's a shame because even in his first season when he wasn't yet that guy and they were still uncomfortable it's and it's a shame because even like in his first season when he wasn't yet that guy and they were still figuring out he's coming back from the hip he still had like better pressure response it's kind of like the seeing ghost things i call it like the david carr effect you just get hit so much that you just the second you see a flash of color you see matt judon's red sleeves come around the corner even if you're okay you just start to

freak out you start to panic use your butt clenches you're just not comfy in the idea of being under pressure that is not a good condition to have facing this Ravens defense because the Ravens are going to give you pressure looks they're going to send some sometimes they're not going to send some other times they're going to spin safeties around and they have a better line than the Ravens than the Patriots excuse me I do think the Patriots line was good but Justin Matabuke, Odafe Owe, Justin Houston, this is a solid line, and they're going to win their one-on-ones. So unless you're really rolling two out constantly and getting the ball out of his hands

on his first read on these rollouts, I don't know how this offense moves the ball in the passing game and running game-wise, they were abysmal. So the Dolphins offense is still very much a work in progress. Sounds like you like the under in this game. I like the under for the Dolphins total. There's a chance that the Ravens offense remains. I like the under for the Dolphins total. There's a chance that the Ravens offense remains laborious. A lot of the Ravens scoring drivers were the result of one explosive play. And then kind of cashing in on that, they weren't really

able to move the balls methodically as we're used to seeing the Ravens do it. Again, the potential for J.K. Dobbins back helps that a ton, but we don't really know that at this time. So Dolphins team total is at 20 and a half. To me, I see the under. I don't think you're going to get the fumbles and the turnovers that you got from the Patriots defense. I don't think you're going to get those short fields. And critically, we don't know what the Dolphins offense is in the red zone. They didn't score in the red.

They got in the red zone one time. Then they backed up out of the red zone, take the field goal. There are two touchdowns where a fumble return and then an explosive throw to Jalen Waddle. We don't this running game doesn't work right now. They can't go under center and run it, which is the whole point of a Shanahan running game. They don't have the offensive line or the tight end blockers to get that done.

We don't know what this offensive will look like in short yardage. We don't know what they're going to do when they get inside the 10. They don't have a ball winner. Mike Gasicki on a fade route? I'm worried about their ability to cash in with seven points. So under 20.5 to the Dolphins for me smells good.

Okay. What is your favorite game this week? Favorite to bet? Yeah. I'm pretty big on the under for Pat Steelers. These two offenses were really embarrassing in week one. In terms of yards per play, which is just like a general catch-all metric

for how well you move the football. Patriots are 22nd, five yards per play. Steelers are 29th, 4.4. In terms of points per drive, Patriots were 29th, less than a point per drive. Steelers were 26th at 1.14 points per drive, which is nuts because they had 14 drives in that game. And they were only able to put 23 points on the board

with all the turnovers the Bengals are giving them. The Steelers also... Well, it was a five-quarter game and they had 13 first downs. It's pretty rough. It's unbelievable, right? The other thing about the Steelers and taking unders on the Steelers is this Matt Canada offense, when it's what it wants

to be, it uses the entire play clock. And pace of play is really important when we bet totals. With all the motion that Matt Canada does, send Deontay Johnson across the formation. Bring him back. Najee Harris into the backfield, out of the backfield. You end up using 30 plus seconds of every single down.

That shortens the game, right? It's fewer plays per game. That leans towards the under. Najee Harris, a full participant in practice today, I think it's good news for the under. So I think they're more likely to be on a running script with Najee Harris in there. And Najee's not an explosive runner.

He's not a rip off a 70 yard touchdown runner. He's a ground andand-pound guy. I don't see either of these offenses being a 20-24-point offense. I think this total should be below 40. What if I gave you Pat's money line with the under alternate line

50.5 at plus 107? I'm pretty confident you're getting the under. Pat's money line. I mean, like this game to me is somebody rips off a big screen. Somebody gets a fumble in their own 30.

And like, that's the difference. Like a special teams play, which like maybe that does lean towards the Pats. The Pats actually still do have solid special teams so that everything is discombobulated around them. I don't want to bet a side on this game because I think it's a two to three play besides the game sort of situation. And in those ugly games

especially, like the Steelers tend, as we saw in week one, to hang around and somehow get an extra point block and force it over time and stick around. So I like the total. I wouldn't touch the spread in this game of the 39.5-foot pole. Under 50.5 is minus 440, which could be

added to a couple other tasty ones. Absolutely, yeah. The Packers against the Bears. How are you feeling about the Packers against the Bears? Just to win. Just to get a W. No, I very much think the Packers are in a bounce-back spot. The size of the spread freaks me out just because I think we're going to have

a very run-heavy team in the Bears, which is going to shorten the game. Yeah. And then figuring out exactly what the Packers are going to be on offense right now is really, really fun. And by fun, I mean hard.

Uh, I don't know, like in terms of like discourse right now, whenever Aaron Rogers gets asked about the offense, he talks about getting the wide receivers more involved. And whenever Matt LaFleur talks about the offense, he talks about getting the running backs more involved. And I feel like they're going to need to come to an agreement there

to figure out what this is going to be. But I like to see what the adjustments are before I start feeling like I can figure out this Packers offense. I lost more money trying to figure out the Packers backfield touches last year than any other props average. I was always wrong on Dylan. I was always wrong on Jones. I was always wrong on Jones. Yeah, I tried to get an Aaron Jones receiving prop up in week one and they just didn't use

him as a pass catcher for the whole second half. So I need I'm in a position with the Packers offense. I want to see it and start to figure it out. But I do think it's such a more a more more talented team and they're in a bounce back spot that I feel good on the money line spread to me is a little rich for the Packers. Minus 330 for the Bengals against the suddenly hopeless Cowboys. Yeah.

You could do under $50.50 for Steelers-Pats. Packers, minus $4.50. I'm at minus $1.05 with those three. It feels good. The Bengals, you're taking the spread of the money line. Money line. Okay, yeah. I'm comfortable with that.

The Bengals are the other team for me, where I'm like, yeah, I think they win. But also, I do want to see what we look like here in week two. So we got absolutely punched in the mouth by a vicious defensive line. Michael Parsons coming to town. I like that they're 0-1. I like that they shot

themselves in the foot a million ways. I like that they should have won and they didn't. And I don't know. I thought their defense was actually pretty good in that game. You look at the stats for Pittsburgh. We went over. They barely did anything.

Now, part of that's Trubisky. I know Harris got hurt, but I thought they looked good. Yeah, I do think this Dallas offense is going to be abysmal, too. That's another game where I usually am more of a spread better than a totals better, but that's another game in which I did look at the total for a long time uh bangles cowboys under right now it's at what why is it not listed oh there we are uh under 42 and a half to me is one that you should be okay taking can i sell you on another oh and one team that

embarrassed themselves that should cover in week two please Please, I might have it on my list. What is it? Denver Broncos. Okay. It was embarrassing. And the immediate issue of general newness, new quarterback, new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator, the only team in the league with newness

at all four positions was very evident in week one when all they had to do was just manage the situation, manage the goal line touches, manage the clock, and they couldn't, and they lost to the Seahawks. That concern is still there. However, Denver at home early in the season is something you should be really comfortable with because the mile-high advantage matters the most in September.

Since 2000, weeks one and two, Denver at home is 14 7 and 4 against the spread they're minus 10 and a half right now against the texans it was nine and a half earlier i took it there you're obviously through 10 which is an important number but not as important as like seven or three so you don't want to get too too wrapped up into that the texans were exciting it was cool they hung around with the colts they play too high yeah that usually beats the russell wilson, but we saw from this Russ offense that they are going to be

pass heavy underneath. They're going to throw it back. They're going to throw it at tight ends. They're going to work under these zones, which will work against this Tampa 2 defense from Lovie, and then critically, they can run the daggone ball, and the Texans will let you run the ball on them until the Cowles come home. The Colts game should have been

so easily won by just sticking the ball in Jonathan Taylor's gut for 30 carries, but they, they were trying to do other stuff and they ran into issues. The Broncos are going to pick up five, six yards of carry in this game. And I think just be able to control it for four quarters, that plus the mile high advantage to me,

good bounce back spot. I like the Broncos against the spread. Are they going to unleash my guy Javante this game or no? Was Javante not unleashed in the previous game? He had like a bunch of third down touches. I just want him. Can he have a 30 carry game? Can he have a 30 touch game?

Is that going to happen in my lifetime? Not for as long as Melvin Gordon's on that team. Oh my God. They love Gordon as their short yardage back. They think that he is their responsible veteran who doesn't bounce balls. And he kind of keeps the carries and keeps the offense on script.

And they like that. He'll fumble in the one-yard line. Yeah. For Javante, it's the catches. I think he's really, really good after the catch. And I think that Russ is going to continue to use him in that regard. We don't need to cover Vikes-Eagles because you and Shil Kapadia did it for an hour and seven minutes on the Ringers-Philly special.

Both of you picked Minnesota, which aligns with what I was thinking with that game, too. I think Minnesota's a better Detroit. The Saints-Bucks, we talked about it a little with Schrager, where it's like, oh, the Saints own Brady. Well, he's only been on the Bucks for two years. The Saints defense, from what we saw in week one, does not look remotely the same

of what we had in our heads of a typical Saints defense. They didn't really get any pressure at all against Atlanta. And the Bucs, it's still under three and it's just staring at me. Bucs minus two and a half. It's just, it put on some lingerie. It's doing a little dance for me. It's just trying to get me to take me upstairs. And why should I not go upstairs with Bucs minus two and a half? I like Bucs minus two and a half. I would take it. I hear the concerns and

the one-to-one of the Falcons offense in week one and the Bucs offense in week two isn't as easy as it seems, right? Like on the Friday show, my co-host Steven Ruiz made the great point where it's like, yeah, the Saints run defense was bad against like a college Russian game, right? Like Marcus Mariota, two dudes in the backfield, my co-host Stephen Ruiz made the great point where it's like, yeah, the Saints run defense was bad against like a college rushing game, right? Like Marcus Mariota, two dudes in the backfield, triple option nonsense against just like a traditional downhill rushing attack.

We've seen the Saints run defense be so, so, so good. But the personnel loss for the Saints absolutely unequivocally matters, right? Like the best thing about this team was that they could just sit and man up anybody on any given Sunday. I got him. Let's go. And so when they would play Tampa, nobody can man up Tampa. Nobody can man up Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski until they ran into the

Saints. But that was with Chauncey Garner Johnson. That was with Malcolm Jenkins. That was with guys who are no longer in the secondary. And yes, Gronk is gone. Yes, Chris Godwin is gone. But Brady is the king man matchup hunter. He will find the guy on the field who shouldn't be on the field and he'll hit him and he'll hit him and

he'll hit him. And if that's Bradley Roby, or if that's, you know, kind of this late career version of Tyron Matthew, he's still going to be able to find his advantages with what freaking Julio Jones. Like there's still weapons in Tampa Bay. I don't think the Saints have the horses that they used to on defense to run this the way they did when they were beating Tom. So I do think a two and a half is likable. Does it absolutely freak me out too that it's sitting right under three? Yeah, it feels like a trap, but

I like it. Well, because there's a lot of just history legacy buzz with this matchup. We were looking at the start of this buck season where it was at Dallas, at New Orleans, then Green Bay, Kansas City. It's like, man, you're lucky to get two and two out of that. Now I feel like they're going to beat New Orleans.

From what we've seen with Green Bay, Kansas City, maybe split those and then you're off. They have an at Pittsburgh game that's not nearly as scary. I think at Carolina and at Cleveland are a little scarier. At Arizona, no. I would say, gun to my head, I probably would take Bucks to be the one seed right now. Green Bay, second choice. Who would you take if you had to pick?

I know we're one weekend. Tampa. I think that, like I said, I'm willing to get right back on the Packers horse. I've usually been Packers above Tampa. I very much am in a position where it's like, okay, I know this can work. Please show it to me for a couple of weeks,

right? Like they, they, the discombobulation on that offense feels unnecessary. And then defensively, it's just stupid stuff. Like if you're, if you're gonna,

if you're gonna run that game plan against Justin Jefferson for four quarters, how am I supposed to trust you in the playoffs, man? Like it's knucklehead stuff. So with the Packers, it's so easy to feel them as a better team, as a tier above the rest of the NFC. But they're stuffed to clean up, and I want to see it cleaned up.

I wanted to put the Browns in a tease this week. You were a little nervous about their offense, but what did you like and not like about them in week one? I didn't like the fact that they generated no explosives in the passing game. You go back and you look through how they got their scores against Carolina. They obviously had to kick a ton of field goals. Kate York, MVP, they were kicking long field goals because they were able to inch the ball down the field in the running game. And then when they scored touchdowns, it was on the back of they had a defensive pass interference at the two yard

line off of an interception. They had multiple 20 plusyard runs from Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on their touchdown drive, right? Yeah. Their two most explosive passing games, which were of 20 and 19 yards, both screens, right? Like, the way the Kevin Stefanski offense is supposed to work is run, run, run, run, run, shot, run, run, shot, run, run, run, shot, right? It's just, we are going to pound, pound, pound, pound, pound, and then eventually we're going to get over the top of you.

Brissette, Donovan Peoples-Jonesones anthony schwartz and marty cooper that grouping there could not find a way to get downfield on a rather aggressive defense that gives you those opportunities the space was there they couldn't connect and brissette wouldn't trigger now you get a jets defense that number one is better against the run the jets have a nice front and they have a good run stopping linebacking core. Number two has better man coverage guys than we thought, man. In terms of rookie debuts, it doesn't get written about because he's a corner. Sauce Gardner. Holy

smokes. Tough day. Mark Andrews and Rashad Bateman played some really, really good football. I think this Jets defense is going to be enough to keep this within one possession. I think ugly game. Again, I think a low scoring game. I think we two is going to be all unders, which is not fun at all. But six and a half to me like

if you're giving me the opposing quarterback, that's Jacoby Brissett's caliber and I get almost a touchdown to me. I don't even need to hear much else about the game. That's way too much teaser though Browns to even I'm thinking about it. I thought so. Here's my take. I haven't told you this. Okay. I think I think the Browns to even? I'm thinking about it. I thought, so here's my take.

I haven't told you this. Okay. I think the Browns-Panthers, I think both of those teams are good. And sometimes that happens in week one where it's like, oh, wait, when you think back to that Browns-Panthers game five weeks ago,

those teams were actually better than we thought. I think the Panthers might be good. Is this Jacoby Brissett Browns are good? No. I think he's the weak link. But I think everything else I saw I really liked. I thought their defense looked excellent.

And they can still Chubb looked as good as ever. Hunt coming off. I thought Peoples-Jones was open a lot. I think he had 11 targets in that game. He only caught six. But he was, I think, more impactful than I was expecting.

And I don't know. I like Carolina. I like that they fought back. That game was done. And they actually fought back, made some plays, and they came down to a 59-yard field goal. They should have won. Yeah.

I appreciate Carolina's defensive scheme and some of their personnel i appreciate the browns offensive scheme in their personnel both teams feel deficient for me on the other sides of the ball like i think the panthers offense can be good with their weapons but the line really freaks me out i think the browns defense like wants to schematically be like a cool team match quarters and like you know run the brand staley stuff but outside of corner back i don't think they have the guys in the back seven. You need to have a good Mike Linebacker.

You need to have good safeties. I'm not sure they have that. It leaves gaps for me in those teams. I think the Browns, if Deshaun Watson comes back and is of the caliber of player that he had been pre-sitting out for a season, pre-suspension,

then the Browns are a playoff team. I don't think that they're going to be good enough with Jacoby to hang around. The Panthers are the interesting one because it's Matt Wolfe fighting for his job plus Baker Mayfield fighting for his future as a starting quarterback. You get a win or two under your belt. You get this Phil Snow defense working like it was last year before

JC Horn got hurt. Yeah, you're plucky. I think you're plucky. I will reserve judgment on good and we'll check back on that later. They have the Giants. They're plus one and a half this week and I think that's going to be one of the million dollar picks. Buying high on the Giants on the going against the Giants train when they have

a lot of success. One thing I was thinking about because the Fando has these alternate lines. I really thought the Chiefs were going to blow out the Cardinals last week. I realized after the fact, I should have just bet the Chiefs minus 19 and a half or some crazy thing with Big Juice. If you had to pick a blowout this week, what would you pick?

Rams-Falcons? So you don't even think the Falcons, anything they showed on offense, you don't think that's sustainable for this week? I generally like the Falcons. And the Falcons anything they showed on offense you don't think that's sustainable for this week I generally like the Falcons and like the Falcons and the Seahawks are the two teams that come into the season I was like I'm probably going to take them as underdogs for the first few weeks and feel good about it I have the Seahawks

against the Niners like I like that that matchup Falcons do not match up well against the Rams the Rams have the athleticism on defense to handle the way that the the Falcons play on offense right like obviously not a big Kyle Pitts game but the Rams do have the guy to handle the way that the uh the falcons play on offense right like obviously not a big kyle pitts game but the the uh rams do have the guy to handle kyle pitts if they need to in jail rams he was able to move into the slot for them this you know super variegated running game

well they put tons of defensive backs on the field so they're going to be able to send guys flying at that on the other side of the ball the falcons blitz like crazy right dnp is just dial up pressure dial up pressure the book on on this Matt Stafford Rams era is get pressure with four and sit in zone. That's how they lost to the Niners and the Titans last year. That's how they lost to the Bills last week. DMPs does not have the self-control to put himself in that game plan.

DMPs hates playing games like that. DMPs wants to send pressure. And I think when they send pressure, they're going to get burned. And you also get the extra week of preparation. You kind of get the wash off the Bills game. Iams falcons is a big one okay um give me give us your soul act same gamer yeah so props are slow coming out which is extremely rude because i had a great time on props last week and i feel like i'm being targeted personally we're taping this early

thursday afternoon so sometimes they get sometimes they're a little late. Yep. I saw from the Broncos, a offense that's going to be methodical. It's going to be dink and dunk. It's going to take its underneath throws. And I think they're going to possess the ball a lot against the Texans. Because I think that Houston's really, really, really going to struggle

to move the ball on a Denver defense that generally was pretty good against the Seahawks. So I like getting overs on the Broncos over 28 and a half team points, minus 10 and a half on the spread. As I've communicated, I think it's a big game for the Broncos, but you can also get in there. Russell Wilson passing attempts. You can get over 33 and a half 35 and a half and that can bring a juice up over like 500. So it's not as fat as any of our earlier ones, but I lost two of those parlays because their touchdown legs didn't come home. So I got to wait on some touchdown ones. make sure I have a better feel for red zone touches. Well, we should mention last week you had, you almost hit that. It was nine to one. We needed the Lance touchdown and they were inside the five a couple of times. I was like, we're getting this, we're getting this. And it just didn't happen. But I thought that was a really good nine to one parlay because he hit the, he hit the over, you hit the under in the first half or first quarter,

you nailed it. Yeah, I had, I missed AJ. I missedJ. Brown one on the touchdown, and then the Eagles alternate spread didn't come through, but we were sitting on that one for a while. Christian Kirk, I missed on a touchdown, and then I had a Falcons one that was like 25 to 1 that I missed on Kyle Pitts receiving yards. That one, that'll sit. What happened to him? What happened to our guy Kyle last week? So they just didn't, like,

it's not like they, saying they didn't, they ended up not meeting him is incorrect. Like, they did end up meeting him. They lost the game. It would have made their passing game better however such a huge part of the way that running game was working was let's condense everyone and then leave one receiver out here and then we'll just take our opportunity with that one-on-one receiver and like you can let that receiver be kyle pitts but you drafted drake london to go be that guys they put out there i think that if they continue to run into like these second half obstacles on offense,

you'll start to see Brian Edwards on the field less and more Kyle Pitts flexed out wise. They realized that they need that additional guy in the passing game.

So for your same gamer, you're thinking Denver over 20 and a half points. Yeah. Denver to cover minus nine and a half. It's the minus nine and

a half down. Yeah. So nine and a half, which getting the 10 is nice. And then Russell Wilson over 35 passing attempts. I think you're going to see this team play all four quarters and be eight to nine to 10 to 11 to 12 play drives

as they go through. They need reps badly. And Russ is going to be throwing short against this team. So that's going to be around like plus 450 range by the time people hear this. Maybe FanDuel, maybe they'll give that a little boost for us. And Vikings plus 112 we have in the underdog parlay. I still like the Panthers.

And the only other one I had, there's a nine-point teaser I was looking at. Bills, nine and a half. Packers, nine and a half. Bengals, seven and a half. Or some different third spot. Maybe it's the Broncos there. Yeah. Um,

just trying to figure out a way to work the bills into something. Cause the bills might go 20, you know, be skipping out to bet on them. Playoff teams get right. Plus also bills parlay shove as many of these own one teams in there as you can get. So who would you put bills Packers Broncos or bills Packers Bengals for that?

You, you'd go Broncos. If I was building it, I would go Broncos. Bills, Packers, Bengals for that? You'd go Broncos. If I was building it, I would go Broncos. But at the same time, like when you're, if you're buying nine points, then I don't think putting the Bengals in there

is a bad idea at all because I think that it would be legitimately stunning if Cooper Rush wins a football game in the year of our Lord 2022. The nine points. So you can do the seven pointer. That's plus 120 on FanDuel.

The nine pointers minus 115. And it's like at that point. No, no, it's just like at that point, I might as well take the nine. It's not even it's barely any of a difference. So I think I'm looking at that one too. If you had to pick one massive upset this week, what would it be?

I can see the Seahawks beating the Niners. I uh the jaguars at plus four and a half is it plus three and a half right now that one's not super massive um but i think that's possible i also think uh actually now scrolling back as i look you asked me what the big blowout is and i said the uh the rams i still stand by that i wouldn't be surprised if the raiders take the cardinals to the woodshed for four quarters man that cardinals team looks horrible and i know they play the chiefs, but holy smokes, man. They're nothing right now on offense.

And like just random plays scrambled together, trying to run all through Marquise Brown. Second round pick Trey McBride at tight end. Healthy scratch. They can't even get the dude on the field. Healthy scratch? I didn't even notice that. Yeah, the Cardinals are a wicked mess.

And so I do think that you can see an upset from the Seahawks against the Niners, but looking through it now, I forgot about a good blowout opportunity there for the Raiders. Raiders minus 19.5 plus 420? That feels fun, doesn't it? Plus 420 feels real fun. The plus 21.5 is plus 520? They love to really entice you to go 22 and up. How worried are you about your offenses that can't run though?

Because if the Raiders go to sit on the ball, baby, that's three and outs every single drive. Oof. Yeah, that's the thing. The Cardinals do seem like one of those teams. They fall behind by 30 and then they claw back making it temporary. I'm with you. I thought that was one of the three worst teams I watched in week one.

And also didn't seem like they really totally wanted to be there either. Yeah. They left Isaiah Simmons on Travis Kelsey for pretty much the whole game. And now they get Darren Waller. And if they decide to do that again, I don't know what Darren Waller's going to open up at,

but I'm going to take it. You can watch the playlist, Ben Solak's new YouTube show on the Ringer YouTube channel. You can listen to him on the Ringer's Philly Special with Shiel. Do people like, what are the Eagles fans? Did you win over the mean-spirited,

hardcore Eagles community yet? What do they think? I think they're feeling good because we talked a lot about Jordan Davis pre the Lions game, and that's all Eagles are talking about right now is the fact that Davis wasn't on the field too much. I do think that they're mad at me

because I still don't like Marcus Epps because there's nothing the Eagles fans love more than a bad sixth round safety who makes one play a game. See that? And then Friday, Ringer NFL show.

You're on there Monday too, but Friday with Ruiz and Heifetz. So good to see you as always. Appreciate it, Bill. All right. Million dollar picks week two. always. Appreciate it, Bill. All right. Million dollar picks week two. I lost $703,000 last week. It wasn't my fault.

I'm going to win it back. I love week two. Nine point teaser. We're going to start there. Bills, minus nine and a half to take care of business against Tennessee. Packers, minus nine and a half

coming off a loss against that weird Bears team. Are they really going to lose to the Bears there? Rogers owns the Bears. Broncos, minus nine and a half. They are playing Houston, who played five periods last week,

who ran out of gas in the third quarter. Broncos lost a tough one. They're going to get it back. We can tease all of those teams down to a half point. All three of them have to win. We're putting 300K on that minus 115. We are betting three straight up picks. The Bucks,

minus two and a half, 200K on them against the Saints. I'm not buying this whole Saints own Tom Brady. You know who owns Tom Brady? Nobody. We don't even know if he's married anymore. Nobody owns Tom Brady. We're taking them. Jags plus three and a half. They're at Indy. You watched last week. Indy couldn't even beat Houston. Houston was dead by the fourth quarter. They ended up being a tie. They waved their kicker. They're a mess. Jags plus three and a half. We're grabbing them. I thought they should have won last week. I like that Jags team, not just for this game, but potentially win the division. Panthers plus one and a half. They owe me. They had the game last week. They ended up losing on a 59 yard field goal

by a Cleveland kicker, which is like heresy. They're playing the Giants. Everybody's fired up about the Giants. The Panthers are somehow getting points plus one and a half against the Giants. This game is in New Jersey. I don't care. I believe in Carolina.

We're taking them. So 200K on the Bucks minus two and a half. Jags plus three and a half. Panthers plus one and a half. Our underdog parlay of the week. Hopefully FanDuel will boost this for us. We're taking Minnesota plus one and a half Monday night in Philly. I know Kirk Cousins' prime time record. I'm not afraid. You like that, Kirk Cousins? I am not afraid. I don't like that Philly defense at all. We're grabbing Minnesota for the money line, and we're taking Miami, who looked really good

against the Pats last week, except there are some offensive issues, but the defense was fast. Tyreek looked great, and there was enough team speed with that that you're going against Baltimore with left tackle out. Dobbins might play. Who knows? They can't run the ball. Only 13 first downs last week. I

like Minnesota-Miami both to win win plus 451. We're putting 75K on that. We're also putting 75K on the Las Vegas Raiders, who I thought looked pretty good last week in a Chargers loss. They let a couple of plays go, but the framework was there. I have them on Fando. You can bet in a range for a point win. Vegas to beat the terrible Cardinals between 11 and 20 points is plus 380. I cannot resist. I'm putting 50K in that. And then last but not least, a bad weather, four team, crazy parlay here.

The Pats going back to the well with them against this Pittsburgh team that lost TJ Watt, Najee Harris. He might play, he might not. Trubisky, 13 first downs last week. Pats, minus 2.5 against Pittsburgh. Cleveland, alternate line, minus 2.5

against the Jets. The Jets, I don't know if you saw them on offense last week, but Joe Flacco threw the ball like 130 times. Pats, under 48.5, alternate line. Jets, I don't know if you saw them on offense last week, but Joe Flacco threw the ball like 130 times. Pats under 48 and a half, alternate line. Jets under 44 and a half, alternate line. I don't think there's points in this game. I actually think these are four pretty inept offenses that at least the Pats and Cleveland can run the ball.

I just don't, none of this will be explosive. Low scoring. So those four together, Pats minus two and a half, Cleveland minus two and a half, Pats minus two and a half, Cleveland minus two and a half, Pats under 48 and a half, Jets under 45 and a half. That is 75K. We are putting at plus 373 for the lousy, boring game, 14 parlay. So there you go. Those are the million dollar picks for week two. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Schrager and Solak. Thanks to

Kyle Creighton for producing. Thanks to Steve Cerruti and Dylan Burke as well. I will see you on Sunday night. I don't have.