The Bill Simmons Podcast - Here Comes Luka, a UNC-Duke Showdown, and Possible NFL Sleepers With Rob Mahoney, Jay Caspian Kang, and Warren Sharp

Episode Date: April 1, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Rob Mahoney to discuss the playoff seeding for the Western Conference, the increasingly scary Mavericks, the steady Suns, the stumbling Warriors, Clippers rumors, and more (7:26). Then Bill talks with Jay Caspian Kang of the New York Times about the upcoming Final Four showdown between Duke and UNC (31:49). Finally Bill is joined by Warren Sharp to discuss the current NFL landscape for the 2022 season, the wide-open NFC, the super-competitive AFC, big trades and free-agent signings, the top five easiest and hardest 2022 schedules, what to look for in NFL futures bets, and more (56:10). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney, Jay Caspian Kang, and Warren Sharp Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For as long as I've known the NBA, it's been a stars league. But even among the stars, there's an exclusive club. Russell, Dr. J, Jordan, Kobe. They're all part of a select group that paved the way for the NBA superstar of today. And some even shared secrets with each other along the way. From Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network, I'm Jackie McMullen, and this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets

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With the Bucks-Nets game tonight Let me tell you something It happened Oh, did it happen? What a game. Giannis versus Durant. I don't think there's anything better in any sport right now. You know, you think like football, Alan Mahomes, maybe certainly had in the playoff game, but they don't have to defend each other. There was a couple moments in the game tonight in crunch time. Nets just needed a hoop. Who's guarding Durant? Giannis. Who's doing everything? Giannis. Who hits two free throws when you think, oh, he's not going to make these. When the game's on the line and they're down one, who makes them? Giannis. Who makes the three at

the end of regulation? Who doesn't normally make threes, but made it this time? Giannis. He is the most mentally tough guy in the league other than maybe every single guy in the Suns. But it is, he's just moving up the ladder for me for favorite non-Celtics ever. I absolutely love him. He checks every box that I love about basketball players. He really does.

He goes all out. He's one of that I love about basketball players. He really does. He goes all out. He's one of the most competitive guys in the league. He's one of the most mentally tough guys in the league. He is one of the most thrilling guys in the league. He is incredibly durable for whatever reason. And then there's that moment, you know, eight seconds left, Durant hits the three free throws. The Bucks don't call a timeout. They just give it to Giannis. He goes full court. And at some point as he's crossing mid court and he's building up ahead of steam, you just know like, oh, he's getting in the basket. They're going to have to either foul him or he's going to lay up or dunk. What happens? They foul him. He makes two

free throws. But I'm trying to think in my life, how many guys in that moment could have just gone coast to coast like that? Like it's basically LeBron in the late two thousands, early 2010s. It's Dr. J when I was a kid, maybe Barkley, but I don't know if Barkley could have done it when the other team actually knew he was going to do it. Um, Jordan, a hundred percent. It's whoever is on that list, it's not a long list, but Giannis' ability to just solve what the game needs and then try to do it. He doesn't always do it. Today, he had 44-14-6

SOT turnovers, but just Middleton fouls out. I'm sorry, Middleton gets thrown out after a foul that I did not think he should have been thrown out for. And you think, oh, well, this is going to be a toe-to-toe game. Now they don't have their crunch time guy. And Giannis was like, cool, I'll be the crunch time guy. I'll at least try. And that's the thing. Man, that dude, does he ever take a game off?

Do you ever watch a Bucs game and go, Giannis isn't trying tonight? Contrast that to the Sixers game. The Sixers, you could argue, I could see them tanking the Detroit game. I even theorized about that on Twitter. Then you watch the game. Embiid had like 37 and 15. They tried. They played their dudes

hard and stunk. Doc called them out after the game. They asked about the bench. Doc's like, that was more out after the game. They asked about like, did the bench, blah, blah, blah. Doc's like, that was more James than the bench. So Doc's moving toward that realm. You can feel it where he's just like, man, if this goes south, I'm getting blamed. So I'm just going to start calling James out now.

James is, you know, when you think about like what we saw from that Bucks-Nets game today versus what we see from James, depending on the night, is he going to carry tonight? Ah, he's not really going to carry tonight. Okay, cool. He stunk in that Detroit game. And you think like they're probably going to be happy to be the fourth seed. Who knows?

Chicago could actually catch them at this point. But the way it shakes out now, we have Miami 49 and 28, Milwaukee 48 and 28, Celts 47 and 30, Sixers 46 and 30. And I think both the Celtics and Philly will be very happy to stay in that three, four spot. But that's the thing about Milwaukee. You knew they weren't going to tank to try to avoid Brooklyn because why wouldn't they? They're the champs. They're not afraid of anybody. And I guarantee Giannis isn't afraid of anybody. So they? They're the champs. They're not afraid of anybody. And I guarantee Giannis isn't afraid of anybody. So they're going for the one seed. And I'll tell you this, Giannis was 16 to one to win the MVP heading into today's game. He has now dropped to seven to one, and it might even drop lower than that before tomorrow. If the Bucks get the one

seed and Giannis is going to average, what, a 32-13-6 for the season or whatever he ends up in with, yeah, he's at 7-1 now. Jokic minus 210 favorite and Bede is plus 185 and the ship is sailing on that one. Not his fault. It's just there are better candidates. And if Giannis gets the one seed, man, that's going to be a tough choice because I think Jokic has been the most valuable player in the league, but how can you say Giannis hasn't if they're going to get the one seed? Can't wait to watch this play out over the next nine to 10 days. Russel and I are going to talk about it on Sunday in detail. Coming up on this podcast, Rob Mahoney and I are going to talk about another person who's thrown their hat in the MVP race belatedly, Luka Doncic and the resurgence Dallas Maver excited. He did all the schedule strength stuff.

He has easy schedule teams, hard schedule teams, some sleepers, some red flag teams. We're going to break all of it down. Basketball, college basketball, football, it's all coming up next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. all right rob mahoney is here from the ringer.com. We're going to talk about the 3-4-5-6 in the West, which just kind of is not getting enough PR. I feel like everybody's been so focused on the East and who's going to play Brooklyn.

The PR people working on the 3-4-5-6 in the West, they really need to reevaluate things. The Mavericks started out 12-13. Luka got hurt. He missed 10 games. They were 17-18 when he returned. And since January 1st, they were 31-11. They are the third best in the NBA over that stretch.

And they are now the three seed in the West, opening the door for the, you know, I don't want to play in the playoffs. Luca, this is it. This is happening. We're here. We are absolutely here. I mean, he, he's just getting scarier and scarier from a game planning standpoint. And it is amazing as you, as you're rattling off those sections of their season, their ability to tread water without him temporarily in the middle of the year now seems absolutely huge. Might be the difference between them getting knocked out in the first round

with a tough matchup or, as you're saying, hitting some favorable playoff matchups along the way and making a pretty deep run here. I would want to play Utah, right, if I'm them? Utah is the sixth seed. Utah blowing another 25-point lead to the Clippers. What are they doing? Utah with some Mitchells-Knicks.

Mitchell to the Knicks. Those rumors will start pretty much immediately when they're down 2-0 in the first round. Are they going to blow this up? And if you're Dallas, please let Denver and Golden State beat the crap out of each other. Let Memphis and Minnesota

go seven games. And let's just try to avoid Phoenix for as long as we possibly can. If you're in the three spot, that's, that would be the big thing for me with the three. Totally. And in Utah, it makes all the sense in the world from a matchup standpoint, because if you have Luka Doncic on your team, your first question is like, who are the guards I can bully? Who's the team out there with a lot of six foot, six one, six two, that kind of height range? And Utah relies on those guys. Like they need them on the floor.

And if you victimize Jordan Clarkson by running him in pick and rolls with Luka Doncic to the point that he can't play in a series anymore, I don't really know what the Jazz do in that circumstance. Yeah, to me that, if that ends up where we land, I would... That just feels like that's a blow-it-up situation for Utah after that. Because I think that series could go really wrong.

And you could feel it in that Clipper game the other night when the Clips came back and it was like Groundhog Day, but it was a lot of the same stuff we usually see with the Jazz when, you know, build up the lead and then they get spread out. And I just, I think the team is way too slow.

I thought that Celtics game, when the Celtics, during the Time Lord era, before he went down, they just demolished them. They seem so much more athletic than them. And that's the thing. They just don't seem athletic to me. They seem, the more you watch them compared to some of these other teams,

Utah seems gimmicky to me. Dallas is gimmicky in their own ways, but I feel like they're playoff positive gimmicks. You know what I mean? I mean, they're an interesting comparison point with Memphis, right? Because Memphis is this fast breaking, forcing turnovers, offensive rebounding kind of team. All things where it's like, are these going to translate to a playoff series consistently? You have to at least ask the question. Dallas

plays super slow. They grind out possessions. Their defense has slipped a little bit lately, but still is stout enough to last over a series. You don't really have to wonder about the translation with them. It's just, is Luka's step back going to be falling enough?

Or, you know, is Reggie Bullock going to hit enough corner threes in this game or that to swing a meaningful game? And they've shown that they can do that. You know, by net rating, by all like the big picture indicators lately, the Mavs aren't great,

but they just win these games. They just grind them out in ways that teams like Utah, unfortunately, riding a five-game losing streak against playoff-level opponents, they're just not making it happen for themselves right now. And that's my fear with the Celtics. Now,

we need to get them. Time Lord seems like he's going to come back in round two. But the two times recently, and the Celtics have looked like one of the best teams of all time in some of these games. And then you watch them play Dallas that Sunday game, or you watch them play Miami yesterday, and the team slow them down. They start trying to trap Tatum, make him get rid of the ball. And the game gets a little ugly, a little disjointed. And that's Boston's Achilles heel right Who, how are they going to match points when the game slows down like that? Dallas is like dying to do that. Honestly, Miami is too.

I don't love the Miami scores the same way I like Dallas, but same kind of thing. Let's just get to the last three minutes. Phoenix is the best, not only this year, but they're in the running for all time for, you saw it again yesterday with golden state, a game where they were dying to give to Golden State.

And they were just like, all right, you want us to take it? They take it. But with Luka, so his breakout game, he had a 41-14-7 against Toronto January 19th. Since then, he's basically 32-10-9.

He's a 48-40-73 guy percentage-wise. And with him, if he's at 40% from three, I don't really know what to do with you at that point. No. There's no answer. If you're going to make four out of every 10 threes and get to the free throw line nine times, and anytime I try to trap you,

immediately you're getting somebody to open shot, I just don't know what the answer is. And NBA players don't either. That's the reality. You can see kind of an interesting shift in the postgame commentary from the other teams the Mavericks are playing where over the last couple of years there's been a lot of, oh, he's so

impressive the way he sees the floor, these passes. There's kind of a nod of recognition from other players. And that has shifted into what are we supposed to do? You know, like there's no way to lock that down when he's both scoring and passing and facilitating in the way that he has been.

I mean, if you just look at the first couple minutes of that game against the Lakers, he was just getting layups. You know, he turned Dwight Howard around in the paint looking for the lob, and he's just getting uncontested layups. He's kicking out for wide-open threes in so many of these games. He basically just completely dissected the Cavs in the game on Wednesday night.

I don't know what the pick-your-poison answer is there, if he's just completely befuddling the guys who are supposed to be guarding him, but that's the reality of the situation you find yourself in. It makes the trap question that you raised with Tatum really interesting because Tatum is a guy you trap in part because you want to see how he tries to solve it. You don't want to deal with him as a

scorer. You just want to deal with him as a playmaker instead. There were possessions against the Cavs where Luka was just like, how far can I sling this behind the back pass to Dorian Finney Smith for a wide open three? They were on the money every. So I don't know what you're supposed to do if you want to try to trap that guy. Yeah, there's three things going on. And this is why I'm glad we're leading the podcast with this. And I want to get our guy Charks to come on at some point to do the

Luka because I think he's not only the Luka expert at the ringer, but probably in the world. There's three things I've noticed. One, his fuck around ability, which is to me the last level with these perimeter guys. And you go like Bird of Magic had it, Jordan had it. Like Luka's doing games now like where he's getting bored. So like that thing that he did with Moses Brown last night. Yeah. Just mean. Yeah, he pretends he's passing bored. So like that thing that he did with Moses Brown last night. Yeah. Where Just mean.

Yeah, he pretends he's passing it around Moses Brown, but he didn't and he gets Moses Brown to turn around and then he shoots. When you're at that level,

that's sick. And there's there's only a handful of perimeter guys ever who get that level and that's kind of where he's treading,

which has been a point number two. It's been Giannis, Jokic, and Embiid now all season. There's been some Ja. We've gotten some DeRozan. We've gotten some Tatum. And Luka showed up. He was overweight

at the start of the year and then kind of pushed aside. And I... Who knows? I might be wrong. And who knows with the guys who weren't born here, they might not care anything about this stuff. But I do think he's like a competitive MF-er. And there does seem like a little bit now of like, hey, I'm right here. I'm not, I should be in these conversations with what's going on lately. So I wonder, is that going to happen? Then the third thing, just the narrative of like the great players of all time.

And I've said this before in the pod, they make the finals before you think they're ready to make the finals, you know? And he certainly is the talent at least to be like, wow, I guess Luca is going to be in the finals. I thought this was going to happen two years from now, but you know,

who knows? Phoenix to me is the big obstacle. I know Memphis, the Memphis thing, I just don't get, but I do wonder if it's more of a regular season thing than a playoff thing. But anyway, with Luka, which one of those three points jumps out to you the most? The fuck around ability,

the I'm being left out of the conversation piece, or the sometimes this happens sooner than you think piece? Well, I think the fuck around ability, which is just a fantastic word. Thank you. I just made it up. It ties into the third point really well too because during these games, it can be easy to take for granted

that he is just kind of messing around. He is just kind of toying with Moses Brown and he still gets, I think he had 37 and 13 assists or something in that game. Just kind of playing at his own speed, taking his own pace, and that's against a Cavs team that, while shorthanded, has a lot to play for. They've run up against teams that are

missing guys, but desperate teams. And Luke is just doing his thing, slinging through pick and rolls, no problem. He can do that, And he can mess with you and still put up huge numbers and still win. And the team is structured in a way now where it really suits him incredibly well in terms of the defensive support he gets, how small they're playing now and the spacing that puts on the floor. Just incredibly dangerous stuff. And I love

the idea of him as a guy who could pop in the postseason and get to the finals earlier than expected, whether that's this season, whatever season that ends up being. Those things always, they just completely blindside you. And this, I have a hard time,

we've talked about this, I have a hard time seeing how anyone beats Phoenix, which maybe makes it perfect for that kind of blindsiding surprise, whether it's him, whether it's Ja, whoever it is, if anyone's it perfect for that kind of blindsiding surprise, whether it's him, whether it's jaw, whoever it is, if anyone's going to make that kind of leap,

you have to do it against a Titan like the suns and you have to tear down a team that's that good to get there. Yeah. I want to talk about Phoenix in a, in a second. Cause we, we were texting about that last night and I think that's its own topic. The thing with, um, the thing with Dallas,

they take two big swings. They fire Carlisle. Well, they don't fire him, but whatever you call what happened where all of a sudden he wasn't a coach anymore, they just kind of, I'm sure there were a lot of reasons for it, but they realized we just need to kind of

change our identity a little bit here. This, we took this as far as it can go with this guy. Thank you for the 2011 title. Goodbye. So he leaves whether he wanted to leave, whether they want to leave, whether both sides want to leave.

We'll never know. They're bringing kid who's had two swings at this, who I just didn't know was a head coach anymore, but whatever he learned over the last few years, he comes in and gives them this defensive identity. So that works. That huge gamble, it actually worked. And then they basically looked at this Porzingis thing

in a way that I don't think NBA teams do enough. And I think the Celtics did it with Kemba Walker too, where it's like, do we want to try to make this work for another year? Or is this a sunk cost? Do we just have to get out of this and move forward? And I think they looked at it like, I don't, I think Kidd was like, I'm not going to play Porzingis in any big moment we have in the playoffs.

He's just not going to be out there. So let's get something for him. They get these two guys back, one of whom has really helped them. But you don't see NBA teams take huge gambles like that that often anymore. I think teams are almost kind of afraid to take gambles because of how the 24-7 media coverage and just all this stuff. I think teams are scared sometimes. This team is not scared. Well, you almost need that kind of transition point where it's a different front office. It's a different coaching staff. There's like a cleaner break where you can say, oh, Christoph Sporzingas was really somebody else's decision to bring in here. The reliance on him. Let's see if we can move in this other direction that ultimately isn't that dissimilar. It's not like the shape of their team has changed dramatically. You're just kind of putting different players in for KP. And most importantly, you're just not having to bet on his

health, which is always the toughest thing with him. And the toughest thing for any team, if you're talking about one of your top two players, and you can't count on that guy to be on the floor, it's exhausting at every level of your organization. The contingencies you have to have in place to prepare

for that, it really disrupts everything you do. And so I think now you're seeing a team that not only has a better sense of how they want to play, of the defensive identity that Kidd has brought in, as you mentioned, which a defensive identity built with players who have not been traditionally considered good defensive personnel. It's a lot of guys who are offense first, who are scorers. There's some decent athletes.

Dwight Powell is not a lockdown defensive anchor. And yet with this team, he's exactly kind of what they need in terms of the mobility he's been able to provide and switching in certain situations. He's just been, again, all these pieces are falling into place in that way, in a way that's just so much more valuable than what they were getting out of Porzingis as a spacer and a scorer. Yeah, it's weird. When you watch them, you think, why don't the teams playing them,

why don't they do this? Like they have two small guards out there, hunt one of those, but they've figured out a way to cover up for whatever the deficiencies are. And I think Luka is, this is the best I've ever seen him play defense. So, you know, so they're in the mix.

They're probably headed for, I would guess, the 2-3 against Memphis, unless something crazy happens. And I just don't know what to make of this Memphis team anymore. Where, what are they, 18-2 now without Jha? That makes no sense to me. They seem like they're getting better. They are one of the deepest regular season teams

I can remember where they can just bring off 11th and 12th men who can just come into games and swing them. So that series will be awesome. That'll be the classic one incredible guy versus the whole team of guys. But Phoenix, you texted

me last night and you asked what has to happen for them not to make the finals other than an injury to one of the two guys. I don't know the answer. Rosillo and I talked about this on Sunday in detail. There's 62 and 14 there. It looks like they're going to be in that neighborhood of one of the best records. One of the best, like 15 to 17 records ever they're going to move into this neighborhood where if you get past 66

and 16 you win the title two thirds of the time and they are so deadly at the end of these games I think that's going to even get better in the playoffs because the playoffs, everything slows down and it moves into their favor. But the fact that half of their games were close

in the last five minutes and they won basically 82% of them, whatever it is, I don't see a roadmap to them losing unless somebody gets hurt. Is there any other way that you see them falling apart? Because right now in Fandle, they're still plus 115 to win the West. I don't know why they're not like minus 300.

I don't see a scenario that they lose. I'm glad we didn't structure the whole pot around this because there are not a lot of answers. And you look at the game against the Warriors as a case in point. Devin Booker made like a quarter of his shots and they just pull it out. They just pull out those kinds of games

and it's not really that big of a deal for them. The level of calm they have in those late game situations, in those potentially big game situations, that would scare the hell out of me if I were, especially one of the, you know, if you're looking at the Grizzlies, the Timberwolves,

some of these teams that just don't have the playoff experience that obviously a Chris Paul does, but now a Devin Booker does and Mikael Bridges and Cam Johnson. I mean, these guys have made big time plays all season long, all through our last year's playoff run. They would scare the hell out of me.

Just the precision they play with and the fact that they always have another adjustment to keep coming because Booker and Paul are so good in the mid range because they can always get to their shots. It's another case where I'm not sure what you're supposed to do with that. Here's the thing. The best player usually wins the playoff series. So if you're going to say,

what's the roadmap to Phoenix somehow losing if they don't have an injury? To me, it's like Luka destroys them. Just a supernova series from a guy like him. Yeah, just like Luca, they just have no answer for him, and he puts up 40 a game, and a little like LeBron against the Pistons in 07, where it's just like,

wait, is Cleveland going to beat this Pistons team? This doesn't make sense, but it was like LeBron just went to another level, and Cleveland made some threes, and all of a sudden, they were advancing. So I think they could do it. If it's Memphis versus Phoenix for me, from what I've seen, I'll do respect to Memphis, but that's a pretty big spot for a bunch of young guys to go against this team that's just a cyborg. And on a mission, in a lot of ways, like very 2014 Spurs similar

of just like on a mission. So then you go to Golden State. I don't think Golden State can beat them. You go to Denver. By getting Murray back for that series, even if I'm getting Murray back, I just don't feel like you could give Jokic's 30, 15, and 14 every night.

I don't think they can beat Phoenix four times. The only one other than Dallas is this weird Clippers situation that's emerging. Sure. They're going to have PG back for the playoffs because we saw him play the other day. Apparently they're going to have Norm Powell back. And then there's Kawhi looming over everything.

And there's a chance it could be a 1-8 where it's like, hey, here's our full Clippers team. And you have the Phoenix not ever having even played them, not knowing what to expect. So I'm going to flag that one as well. But I guess we're going to talk about Golden State a little bit

with Jake Heng in a second. But like, I guess that, I guess I'm off Golden State. I don't think this is recoverable for them. I think this season's been too weird. And the clay piece, they haven't been able to really figure out what they have there. Steph coming back right for the state. I don't think this is recoverable for them. I think this season's been too weird. And the Clay piece, they haven't been able to really figure out what they have there. Steph coming back right for the playoffs.

Draymond doesn't seem 100% to me. The bench is all over the place. And I think it's going to be too hard for them to come back in mid-April and be at the level Phoenix is at. I don't see it. I trust Steph and Draymond and Clay to lock back into some of their stuff,

but I think that crucial late-game blunder in which Otto Porter just didn't slip the screen the way he was supposed to is kind of emblematic of where they are. If you're asking the guys who have been here, throw Andre Iguodala out there. He's going to know where to be, how to move the ball.

These other guys who haven't had that much time to see what this fully operational system is supposed to look like with all of its component parts over the course of the full season. You're asking a lot of them. And, you know, Jordan Poole is going to be fine. He's going to eat like he's going to cook. He's going to put up, get buckets. He doesn't need that structure.

But these other role players do. And so if you want to roll anything more than like six deep, I think those other spots are going to hurt them. Yeah, this is why I was Milwaukee, Boston, and Phoenix, obviously, is the three that I felt the best about. Because I felt like those three teams knew exactly who they were. Boston loses Williams. You saw it in that Milwaukee-Philly game the other night. I just think Milwaukee's the safest bet.

We're taping this before the Milwaukee-Brooklyn game tonight. I think Milwaukee doesn't care what seed they are. Out of all the teams in the East, I think Boston was the same, but now I think they care. Because in round one, you don't want to play Brooklyn without Rob. That's a different series now.

I thought they would have beat Brooklyn with Rob. I don't know what's going to happen without him. Yeah, that's kind of the bummer of the Celtics situation is because previously, based on the seeding and kind of being in the middle of the East bracket and the idea of having a player like that anchoring your defense, I thought they were like the safest bet to make it out of the first round alive

because they wouldn't have to worry about a team like the Nets if they're kind of hovering around 3-4. Now, I mean, that you would have to play against a team like that potentially if you end up as the number one or two seed and you have to completely rewire your defense. I know they're going to run some of the same stuff. I know they're going to still try to play big as much as they can with Grant Williams, but it's just different. The shape of what you're giving other teams feels totally different. I think Boston's totally comfortable with that 4-5 with them playing Chicago.

I think they would probably take that at this point. That seems cozy. They were trying in those last two games, but now we're in a situation where, all right, this is where we're going to be. I don't know how hard. I would use it to try to take it easy with some of these guys.

And then the Toronto piece of it, Tim Bontemps reported that Boston and Philly have a couple unvaccinated guys. The guys on Boston, they're not unimportant guys who might have trouble playing in that Toronto series. So that part, that 3-6 against Toronto, I think is a little worrisome as well.

I can't remember more volatility heading into the last 10 days of the season. It's really like there's so many subplots in play on both things where this Brooklyn thing is just so unusual. The 3-4-5-6 in the West. The fact that we just don't know who's going to be on Denver. The 3-4-5-6 in the West. The fact that we just don't know who's going to be on Denver.

The fact that Ja, is he going to be back before the end of the playoffs? And then Phoenix is just like Terminator 2. And Philly still feels like they're figuring out who they are. And you go through, it's like, this is going to be an all-time,

I don't know what's going to happen playoffs. Well, and it's cool too, if you zoom in on the West, so many of these teams are going to have an all-time, I don't know what's going to happen playoffs. Well, and it's cool, too, to zoom in on the West. So many of these teams are going to have to play each other at the end of this regular season to figure out their standing. Golden State, they play the Jazz, they play the Lakers. I think they play the Pelicans and the Spurs,

so we're getting that seeding intrigue in there, too. And it's the same thing. Utah, Denver, all these teams are kind of playing amongst themselves in a way that if you're in the West, and if you're the Lakers or the Pelicans or the Spurs and you want to get into that playing bracket, you're really going to have to earn it. You're going to have to beat some playoff teams to get there.

What's your MVP 1-2-3 right now? Jokic, Giannis, and Bede. That's what I have. And if Milwaukee keeps fighting and gets a one seed, I might flip to Giannis. Who's your four or five right now, though? Well, I had Booker. I think Booker has to be four.

I think with this Suns season, I just have to have a Phoenix person in the top four. That's how special I think their season's been. And then five's up for grabs. Tatum, probably. But if they fall to four, I don't know, Luka, if Luka ends up at the three spot.

So, that's the thing. We don't have to decide until after game 82. Everyone calm down. Let's use all the games. Think about the Giannis game the other night. How that shifted. All of a sudden, Giannis is back in the conversation because they played Giannis for 38 minutes

and he's the best two-way guy in the league. You know? So, all right, Rob Mahoney, see you probably at least one more time,

maybe either before the playoffs or right as the playoffs are starting, but always good to have you. Thanks, Bill. This episode is brought to you by Movember.

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with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right. My old friend Jay Caspian Kang is here. You can read him in the New York Times. Once upon a time, we worked together at Grantland. He's popped in a couple of times. I usually like to get him when he's hot, when the fumes are coming off his body, when there's some sort of event that it's just like, who can I get for this?

Oh, I'll get Kang. Kang will have some takes. So Kang grew up in Chapel Hill, where you have to decide pretty early whether you grew up there or you went to college there, where do I stand? And most people are going to say, I stand with North Carolina.

And you know who else? I do not like Coach K. I stand against that man. So now we have this tournament and this incredible scenario, which had a 0.3% chance, I think, of happening. Duke, North Carolina, Final Four,

first time ever, the bloodbath. The feeling I'm getting from the North Carolina fans is that this is actually too intense. Yeah, it's just turmoil. I was watching the St. Peter's game and I was watching it with one of my friends growing up and we were in this bar in Oakland

and I was like, I hope we lose. And I've been thinking that for the entire time after we beat UCLA, which was just a miracle. I have no idea how we won that game. And then immediately, I was just like, okay, well, it would be great if St. Peter's made the Final Four and then lost to Duke. I don't want to be the team that loses to Duke because this Duke team right now seems totally unbeatable. And I don't know. I can't see how we win. And then I am worried that it's going to erase all the stuff that happened when we beat Coach K

in his final game in Cameron, which to me as a Tar Heel fan, someone who hated Coach K, I don't know, since my earliest memory, that was like the best sporting moment of my life. It was that and Linsanity. Like, one and two in some order. I was like, and I actually think the Duke game was better.

You know, I was like floating after it. So, I don't know. It's too much right now. Yeah, Tate Frazier was on here. It was basically like another title for UNC. Whatever the titles they win, he's saying like it's basically the equivalent of just add that one to that.

We ruined Coach K's final regular season game at Duke. And now, I mean, I guess the flip side would be if you beat him again and you actually ended his career, that would be even better, right? It's just way more nerve wracking. Yeah, it's almost like it would be too much. It would be too much good in the world to have happened. And then I would be worried about what happened in the future. It's like the world is not supposed to be so good that this thing can happen and then happen again. Especially since

I don't know what Tate said, but we're not very good. We're an eight seed. A week or right before we played Duke, it seemed like we weren't even going to make the tournament. And then they've gone on this run. I don't know. I just think about it as like, I don't know. I don't know if you've had one of these runs in a casino, Bill, but maybe you hit a big sports parlay or something.

You cash it out. You're walking around. And then you sort of win some more bets and you feel invincible. And then at some point, you're just like, all right, I'm shipping it all. And you put it all on one blackjack hand or something like that. That's what it feels like. And then as a dealer's dealer, you're just like, oh no, what did I do? This could go horribly. So I don't know. That's what it feels like. It's been utter turmoil. Yeah, for me, that's usually like 4.30 in the morning after like hour eight of blackjack

when I can barely see and the chips have piled up and people are vacuuming. And I'm like, all right, time to step it up a notch. Yeah, yeah. And then 45 minutes later, you're going, wait a second. Why did I just go back to my room? What was I doing? The thought in my head that goes through my head in those moments is like,

what is life-changing money? You know, like, what's life-changing money? How am I going to get life-changing money? It's like just full degenerate behavior, you know? I'm just like, no, this is nothing, you know? It's just like, let's ship it all. That's what it, yeah. We're in the life-changing money portion of all of this.

Yeah, that's the best part of a great gambling run is when you're convinced they turn the camera on and there's like the extra guy walking around and like, yeah, the pit boss is monitoring us. Meanwhile, you're winning nowhere near about the money of like somebody playing baccarat who's playing like 500K a hand or something. Right, you have like $450 and then you're convinced they're going to come talk to you.

What's the last couple of weeks and months been like for you as we've had this Coach K farewell tour and all the Coach K stuff and all the people talking about Coach K and what a great guy he is and all these different things. And then occasionally there'll be this glimmer of stuff like Bobby Knight, the book that came out, Bobby Knight, ripping him for coaching the Olympic team more than once. It's like, oh, all right, there's a morsel of something I can hold on to. But what was it like to live through all this Coach K stuff recently? Is it working? I heard your last podcast where you said that it had worked on you. And I just remember from when we worked together that you did not like Duke. And so it seems to be working. I don't. No, you know what? To me, it was more,

it's just more fun when they're around. Sometimes you have the villain. Right. That it's just more interesting if they're in the mix. So I think that's why I was rooting for them in that game. I also liked watching them as a basketball team

because as you know, college basketball is just so awkward and clumsy and weird half the time and dominated by these guards who are going to end up playing in like Latvia. And you're just like that Auburn game was just the classic example of why I can't stay in college basketball. You have this guy, you know,

Jabari, who's going to score 20,000 points in the NBA and the guards don't even pass the ball to him. So Duke actually resembles an NBA team to me and I was like, I kind of want to keep watching this, you know? But the North Carolina piece of it, I'm always like, I feel like there's some rivalries

where you have no stake at all, but you still feel like you have to pick a side. And Duke UNC is one of those. USC, UCLA is another one. Like I veered toward UCLA for years. I have no idea why. And then when we started playing basketball at USC,

you left one of your ACLs there. Oh, yeah. But I like the USC kids. So now I kind of root for USC now for really no reason at all. But I've always kind of gravitated to UNC because of the uniforms, because Jordan as a kid,

that was so much fun to watch him in Perkins and Worthy. But it seems like for the most part, Duke is still the villain. Yeah. I mean, at the beginning, you're like kids in North Carolina have a choice.

I think that's true. But if you, you know, if you like me are growing up in Chapel Hill and you're not white, you know, you don't really have a choice. I think that's true. But if you, you know, if you like me are growing up in Chapel Hill and you're not white, you know, you don't really have a choice. You can't really root for Duke, you know? And so that's part of it growing up there is that like, you always associate Duke with being sort of privileged, rich, white kids. And there's always this like stereotype that everyone who goes to Duke is from New Jersey, right? So they're seen as interlopers in some sort of way.

I don't think any of that is true anyway. And that UNC is the legacy of Charlie Scott and Dean Smith and the first coach to desegregate college basketball in the South and this public institution. And of course, now that's all more complicated because they had a Confederate statue statue my entire life on campus and then they refused to get rid of it and the university was like laundering athlete grades through the african-american studies program all this sort of stuff that makes unc look terrible in that sort of way and so i kind of get it and now like you were saying before i think like duke has cooler players right it's not like you know eric meek and Bobby Hurley

and Christian Leitner anymore. So I get it. I think it's all been more complicated. But elementally for me, you know, I still feel all that. You know, you can give me any piece of evidence that things have flipped or we're more nuanced now and I just won't believe it. I'm just like, no, you know, that's the bad team.

We're the morally good team. And yeah, that made the whole K thing, like farewell no, you know, that's it. That's the bad team. We're the morally good team. And yeah, that makes that made the whole K thing like farewell thing even more gross. You know, like there was like I felt like an actual revulsion seeing all the players lined up in that last game in Cameron wearing their like white brotherhood, you know, crest shirts. And I never thought we were going to win that game. And then we were up like nine points. I was walking around this bar and I felt like I was floating. You know, like I felt like I put my arms, like I couldn't believe it. And I don't know, seeing all their, seeing them all unhappy was, I don't know.

It was just like a wonderful experience. I can't, I think I'll remember it forever. I remember when things turned for them. Cause I don't, you know, I was in college, late eighties, night in early nineties.

And it wasn't, there wasn't really like that kind of hatred for Duke at that point. And if anything, like when they beat you on LV, I remember being in a bar where most of the people were just rooting for the upset. Right. You know,

um, and the, and the Duke Kentucky game was most of the people were just rooting for the upset. Right. You know, um, and the, and the Duke Kentucky game was one of the great sporting events I've ever seen. It seems like it as late, there became more annoying. That's something flipped right around his last season where people, all of a sudden it was like,

ah, fuck this guy. He's been in a college off, like fuck this guy. And then they brought in Cherokee parks and it was like, it'd be, it started all of a sudden, it was like, ah, fuck this guy. He's been in college. Like, fuck this guy. And then they brought in Cherokee Parks. And it was like, it all of a sudden felt like Cobra Kai. And from that moment, they had Hurley and Parks and Leighton Aaron.

And everybody kind of looked at it like they were the new Cobra Kai. And then it just flipped. And I think people felt like Coach K was a little bit of a phony. You know, he would have these dalliances with NBA jobs too. He would always do them. Duke for life. Oh yeah, like Duke, this is my mission. Yeah, Celtics.

We almost hired him. Right. I can't remember what year that was. 2004 before we got Doc Rivers. And he would always kind of, you know, he would flirt with people at the NBA bar. So I don't know. I think it turned early 90s.

But by the time we got to the 2000s, and JJ was the ultimate. That was when it peaked. They got JJ. It was like, he's out of Central Casting, which he's talked about. He has a good sense of humor about. But people are like,

all right, this is the ultimate. We got to root against this team. Yeah, JJ sort of... I don't know. I enjoy JJ's podcast, and I enjoy his commentary on the NBA and I don't have any hatred towards JJ. Like the NBA player and now the media figure. Yeah, JJ now.

I think he's quite good and I actually like him. But man, when he was playing, it was, it was horror. It was like, there was like sort of binary between him and rashad mccance who was on carolina you know and it's like they both were got two guards who shot a lot and they both wrote poetry i think at some point they exchanged poetry with one another or whatever but like you know it was like so obvious who the who the moral person was in that you know like who the right person to root for in that. And I don't know. I mean, it was it was I could I don't think I've ever screamed at like a basketball player on my television more than JJ.

Like he just absolutely hated him. And that was a really fun season because that we had that was the Gonzaga losing and Morrison crying on the court before the game was even over. Brandon Roy. There was a whole bunch of fun subplots all over the place. It was like the first season where there was no juggernaut, where it seemed like everybody was beatable in some way. Our team was amazing that year, but I don't know. I was talking to a friend of mine. I think it was similar to what Tate might've been saying, which is like, would you trade one of our championships for that Duke game? You know, just for the regular season Duke game.

Yeah. Yeah. For the Duke game, last game in Cameron, would I like trade? I think I would trade two titles for that. You know, what about for this? Would you trade all the titles just to beat Duke? And then this leads to the next question of if you knew you could beat Duke, let's say 100% chance you could beat Duke, but you'll lose in the finals versus 40% chance you beat Duke and win the finals, but 60% chance you lose to Duke. What would you pick? I'll go this way. If there's 100% chance we beat Duke and next year we go 8-20, guaranteed, and we lose no recruits

and we're in an 8 seed for three years, I would take that in a second. So you would take three straight 8-22 seasons just for beating Duke? Yeah, yeah. That's how important it is i mean like i don't know it's strange like i generally root for bad teams like once i moved to the bay area i became a kings fan you know it's just like yeah it's my personality you know but carolina is uh the one team that i root for that wins a lot and i don't know it's like fine you know like who if we're bad for a few years it's

fine like you know we were good you won titles like we won that strange title like in 2017 that we shouldn't have won with you know no but no nba players basically um and like so it's fine like it's all gravy and um you know the last thing meaningful thing that I think the team could do would be to ruin Coach K's last thing. So, yeah, three 8-20 seasons is fine. You know, I just won't watch the team or I'll just watch it sporadically. Hopefully one of those eight wins against Duke. But like, yeah, I don't know. I think that's about where I'd be willing to go.

What's the nicest thing you could say about Coach K? I don't know. I don't really have anything nice i can say like it's just like i can't stand all this like the the reason why i really started hating him was just because like all this like i'm a leader of men you know this is more about basketball like we're building a brotherhood here uh i i appreciate the student athlete at duke for like this great academic and it's all shade at Carolina. And that's why the Duke fans end up screaming stuff like, Rasheed can't read at Rasheed Wallace, all this sort of stuff that's horrible. I have nothing nice to say about him.

I mean, he's had a great career. Nobody can deny that. I think it's admirable how he sort of took the one and done thing over from everybody else and now he gets all these guys. But obviously that conflicts with the whole, you know,

I want four-year guys, you know, type of thing. Oh, he made him the biggest hypocrite in recent sports history. He would complain about this shit left and right.

Right. Now he's been doing it for a decade. Right. He like basically like excommunicated Will Avery, their point guard he left with Elton Brand.

Corey Maggette, too, because they left early and now it's his whole thing. I don't know. I wish that we had their players. I think they have five players who would be the best player on our team. Our best player is I think he started playing college basketball in like the Obama administration.

No, he's like the six foot, he's like the six foot, six foot 10 white guy. He looks like, you know, looks a lot like Larry Bird actually. And I don't know. I mean, I like respect what he can do, but at the same time, you know,

like, I don't know. There's a lot of things that I respect that I also hate. So there's nothing really nice I can time, I don't know. There's a lot of things that I respect that I also hate. There's nothing really nice I can say, I don't think. That was the answer I expected from you. Before we go, you're in the Bay. The Warriors season has gone sideways,

downhill. The wheels have come off. They are now not even a two seed. There's a chance they're probably going to be in the four or five thing. Dallas is past them. We just talked about Dallas and Rob Mahoney. They're in the four or five spot playing either Denver or Utah,

probably Denver. And we went from, oh my God, Steph, here we go. We're back. Clay's coming back. Going to be the one seed.

And then Phoenix basically took their entire everything and did a much better version of it. And now Phoenix is one of the best regular season times we've had at least this century. And Golden State is kind of struggling, floundering. And what's the mood like there? Pretty down, I think. You know, I went to the game against the Wizards here

where Steph scored 47. And, you know, the crowd was crazy. And after the game, everybody was like, okay, you know, Draymond's back. That was Draymond's first game back. And you could actually tell that Steph wanted to put on a show. He's sort of like LeBron in that way where it's just like, okay, you know, like something has happened. This is a big moment. The second Draymond came in the game because he didn't start, Steph hit like three threes in a row all off Draymond assists, I think. And it's like, you know, like he's, he felt like, okay, now they can all elevate. And then I think he got hurt the next game. And so like since then, I don't know, it's been The basketball fandom here just comes and goes with Steph, right? Even when they're not that good, as long as Steph's playing.

People are excited about the team. I don't know. I just think that they're going to have to... People are starting to wonder, was this it? Can we do it with this team? Klay doesn't... I don't know. I hope Klay gets back, but he just doesn't look the same in any sort of way. And Draymond, I don't know I hope Clay gets back but he just doesn't look the same in any sort of way

and Draymond you know I don't know like how playing that actively on defense with that body it just seems like

he's going to be hurt every year from now to the end of the end of his career so I think people are like thinking in mortality terms right

like they're just like alright maybe this is it which is I think that's why they didn't try to do any trades or anything. The Wiseman thing, I mean, he's 14 months with a torn meniscus,

seems nuts. But the fact that they had the second pick in the draft and they've got nothing from it is pretty unusual. Who knows if they'll end up getting something? But when you think like, you know, whatever, even if they had just taken lamello i'm not sure lamello is completely changing their

destiny but at least that's somebody who's playing basketball somebody's an asset somebody who allows them to do different things so just to go oh for two seasons for wiseman's just such a tough beat plus clay missed almost three seasons he basically missed two and a half full seasons. The luck thing, when you have the luck that they had and you have the salary cap spike during the one year

Kevin Durant's becoming available, and you get Steph on this cheaper contract because his feet were messed up, or his ankles were messed up, and then all of a sudden he becomes Steph and all these confluence of events that happened that made them, them Draymond falling to 37. And then it seemed like it flipped again.

And then it seemed like a flip back. It's like, Oh my God, somebody gave them this pick for D'Angelo Russell. Oh my God. Steph gets hurt during a short season when you can tank for four months and you end up with the number two pick

basically and it was like oh the the wearer's luck is back and now it's like I don't know what to think anymore yeah I mean they

I guess the things that are looking out for them are that Moody and Kaminga both look pretty good you know Moody at least looks like an NBA player

and Kaminga I don't know maybe he'll be like a five time all star or something like that I love Kaminga, I don't know, maybe he'll be like a five-time All-Star or something like that. I love Kaminga. I'm all in. Yeah, I think,

I actually think, I was saying this to somebody, Laker fans, just hear me out. Don't panic when I say this. Because I'm not comparing him to Kobe. They're not even the same guy. But Kobe, his first year,

remember when the Lakers were just like, fuck it, and they threw him out in the playoffs and he was playing in that Utah series and was all of a sudden really involved and it kind of made sense, but it backfired on them. But they were just like, this guy's special.

Let's just get him the miles. I think they're going to do that with Kamingo in the playoffs. I think they're just going to be like, fuck it. Let's play this guy. Let's get him. He's going to do that with Kamingo in the playoffs. I think they're just going to be like, fuck it. Let's play this guy. Let's get him. He's going to cost us in some ways,

but the energy and excitement of these games, he's such a great athlete. Maybe this is like our X factor. I can see them doing it. Yeah, it's like Jordan Poole, 32 points a game, and Kamingo doing this Richard Dumas type. Remember like the Richard Dumas explosion in the Phoenix? Oh, yeah.

I can see that, you know, hopefully Kaminga's career ends up, you know, not falling. Did you see Kerr drop the Giannis comparison with him like two months ago? And that was when I jolted. And he was really careful about it, but it was also kind of intentional. He was just like, look, this guy's really special. Like we have to start playing him. And it's like the same way the Bucs had to start playing Giannis. It's like, oh, Giannis.

Oh, he said it. But I think that athletically, I saw him in person. I was like shocked. Well, that's what I was going to say. I've been a few Warriors games now and he is like electric in that sort of same way. Oh my God. Your eye just follows him, right? I don't know. It's like you watch dance performance

or something. There's always one dancer that's like, you know, sort of... They might not even be the best dancer. It's not like a thing of them being the most attractive or something. They just kind of pop out. Yeah, they seem different. He's like that. Like he definitely... You can't take your eye off him when he's on the court,

which, I don't know. I think the coaches and stuff like that also notice stuff like that, obviously. I don't know. I can see it with him. So I think they got lucky with him. I mean, he was like the eighth pick or something. Yeah, seventh pick.

And what's weird is if he goes to the wrong team, I'm, he still has that talent, but I'm not positive. Like this looks the same if he's like on Orlando, you know, playing on some weird team with a bunch of young guys,

new coach, all that stuff. Yeah. I'm with you. I always look for this. This is why I'm so happy to go to games again. Like there's just some guys that jump off the court when you're there, you know,

and he was a hundred percent. One of those guys like that. You just see it immediately. Um, basically every meaningful guy has felt that way. And in some way, like even somebody like Tatum, when you see him in person as a rookie and he was like, I don't know, 19, but he was, you know, almost six, nine, just the way he moved, you're like, oh man, this guy. And I think Kaminga has it, whatever that is. All right, Kang, what are you working on? I do this twice a week newsletter for the Times and it's like 3,000 words a week.

So that's basically all I work on. Jesus. thousand words a week so that's basically all i work on jesus of uh i've had to brush back brush off my fast writing ability after many years of doing magazine stuff but i like it actually i like it a lot better honestly you were good at that i always thought we had especially in the old days we had some people that could fire it up when we needed it it's's, it's, it feels like I'm more part of the conversation, but also it's just like, you know, I don't know.

Magazine works endless and this it's done. And then you just move on the next one. It's not that bad. What's a, what's your Pachinko review? I haven't seen it yet. You haven't even watched the first three. I don't have Apple TV.

Oh my God. I don't, I don't really watch television. The only show I watch is Snowfall. I watch the Lakers. I watch the Lakers show. I like it. The winning time show? Yeah, it's fun.

It's funny how mad it's making people. I'm still confused about my own feelings on it, but I've been entertained by everyone. And I'm always frustrated by my own feelings on it, but I've been entertained by everyone. Right. And I'm always like frustrated by at least, you know, nine of the choices per episode, but I still enjoy watching it.

The Tarkanian thing was real, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. I had no idea. I didn't, I had no idea that that had actually happened. So yeah,

it's, it's the story is a little more complicated than they made it seem in the TV show, but yeah, it was good. All right, Ken, good to see you. Good to see you. All right, Warren Sharp is here from the Ringer Gambling Show.

Sharp football. First time we've seen him in a while. He goes into a cave after the football season ends and crunches numbers for two straight months. Starting to get some action though. We had free agency kind of wrapped up last week, although there's some lingering dudes left. We have some books are starting to put out the over-unders. We know the schedule. We kind of have a feel for where the draft picks are going. Let's start with free agency. I know it's not done

yet, but it seems like the two winners were Tampa and Buffalo, just in terms of Tampa, not only kept their team together, but seems like they added to a little bit. And then Buffalo just had a really good off season. That would be where I'm leaning. If I had gone to my head, if I had to pick a Superbowl matchup right now,

is there anybody else that jumped out to you or those two? I liked what the Chargers did. I think one thing that people have to realize, though, with free agency spending or just the approach to free agency is the teams that just open their pocketbooks and spend in free agency and bring in a lot of big stars,

typically that ends up backfiring. They may get a slight boost, you know, for this upcoming season, for some of them from a records perspective. The Jags can't be any worse than they were last year. They're probably going to win more games. It's mainly because they have a new coach in Doug Peterson who will do things a lot better than Urban was doing last season.

But that's not a sustained model for success. These teams end up losing more. So if you're one of the teams that your team didn't do a whole lot this off season, don't get too down on that fact. Um, but in terms of some teams that selected some good players or were able to avoid some, I guess, landmines in terms of adding too many bad players, I definitely think that the chargers are up there. Tampa getting Brady back is definitely beneficial. But look, I'm a little bit concerned still about Tampa. Here's the reason, Bill. I love the fact that this team got Brady back. And I'm sure you got some takes on Bruce Arians. But the simple fact is they tried to bring everything together and structure all these contracts

after their Super Bowl run of 2020 to bring this team back for 2021. And they weren't really looking much beyond that. And I don't think they've lost a lot of players through this process over the last calendar year. And I just think it's going to be difficult for them to replicate the success that they had of that 2020 season. That being said, they play in the NFC and the NFC is wide open. I think there's teams from the East that can come out and make runs and they're not even going to be great teams this

year. So the fact that they get to play in the NFC is definitely beneficial in terms of picking a winner and or like a Super Bowl matchup out of the AFC, there's just so many good teams right now. I don't think that there's any value actually. If you're picking one of these like top five teams to come out of the AFC, I don't think you should be betting right now. I just think it's too difficult to forecast who's going to win the AFC, who's going to go to the Super Bowl from the AFC.

I would rather wait to see what the actual schedule, the release of the particular dates and weeks that these teams are playing to try to figure out when I might time a bet like, oh, the Chargers have a brutal first three weeks. Maybe they'll drop a couple games. Then I can get them when they're a little bit lower than what they are now. Well, I guess the thing with Tampa, I kind of written them off after last season. It was like, well, they had this two-year run. Now Brady's leaving. They kind of stacked the deck for 20 and 21.

But now Brady's back. The Bruce Arians thing, which, you know, I talked about on the pod two and a half weeks ago when I was trying to, I think we did a good job on this podcast, kind of nailing the beats of the Brady, of the kind of the Brady rollercoaster. But the Bruce Arians thing was a big part of it. And I think that was affecting his decision, whether he wanted to play football again,

whether he wanted to go to San Francisco. The team did a really nice job of basically blocking him and being like, if you're playing football, you're playing football here. And that's the way it's going to go. And they clearly carved out some sort of, well, if I'm playing again, maybe can we do something about the coaching? And now we have this miraculously,

Bruce has decided to move it in the front office. Todd Bowles is in. And this is lined up now. Todd Bowles has the defense. Brady has the offense, which is, I think, what Brady wanted. I look at where Tampa is. This just seems like a miracle that the NFC played out the way it has.

We have all these quarterbacks leaving. You have the Rams, who definitely have one more year in them. But they went all in to win last year. You have Green Bay, who's just considerably worse. And I don't know, man. Wilson's gone. The Niners look like they're just going to roll the dice with Trey Lance. Jimmy G's hurt.

They can't even get an asset for him. Kyler Murray, I don't know what's going on with that. It's gotten to the point where you start looking at Minnesota and you're like, Minnesota, who knows? Cousins, resurgence. But you mentioned the AFC versus the NFC. Have you ever seen it more lopsided from a QB talent standpoint? This has to be the record. I believe it is. I have not seen it this lopsided. You know the NBA far better than I do. But when I was younger watching the NBA, it was always like the Western Conference

finals was the de facto title. And that's more or less what this sort of feels like. Although the great thing about the NFL is the playoffs are single elimination series, basically. And so in the NBA, it's always the better team in the playoffs, almost always the better team that tends to advance. In the NFL, you have upsets from time to time. I mean, look at the 2007 New England Patriots, the Giants, and what Eli Manning did there. So that's what I love about what we're going to get out of the Super Bowl. But no, I have not seen it more lopsided in my memory with one conference having so much more talent at the quarterback position. And especially when you layer in the fact that quarterbacks matter more now than they ever have before. Yeah. Right. Like

it's a passing league now and quarterbacks matter more than they ever have. And now you've got such a lopsided level of talent. It's going to be fun to see what the records are for AFC versus NFC teams this season. But is that something you is that something you try to track and try to get advantages on the first half of the season? Absolutely. I mean, we're going to be tracking everything we're looking. I mean, two years ago, we were betting overs at a ridiculous rate earlier in the season because we anticipated some of the crowd noise and lack of home field advantage would help the opposing offenses, the road offenses in those stadiums. Last year, we were betting unders really heavily because we got some crowd noise back and a variety of other

factors. We look at every single thing, and this is obviously going to be one of them. One last note on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that just gives me a little bit of pause. Their path is a little bit more difficult. We're going to talk about strength of schedule momentarily. They had the number two easiest schedule last year. That drops down to number 12 easiest this year. So it does get a little bit more difficult. Overall, the conference, though, is easier. Their division is easier. I think that's one of the reasons that Tom Brady chose to come back is because he's like, look at what's happening here with the landscape. I can just come back to the same team. Brady did it again. Yeah, he's in another sticker division. He loves it.

Right. Just pass the regular season, just get a free pass, go to the playoffs. But last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played only five games against teams that made the playoffs. They went four and one in those games. They played six games that were decided by one score. They won all six, six and O in one score games. Obviously was the best record in the NFL. One score games tend to, obviously when you have a great quarterback, you have a better leg up on your competition, but you're not going to be able to continue to hit a hundred percent win rate in these types of games. And in the games that they won the turnover margin, they were nine and oh, but when they didn't win the turnover margin, I think they were four and four. So whether they were, you know, punted and were even in turnover margin or lost it. So

this is still a team that got to where they did last year with things going right for them in that they played an easy schedule. They did well against teams when they won the turnover battle. And some of these things are going to regress this year. Well, right now I looked at FanDuel. Buffalo is the favorite at plus 650 to win the Super Bowl. Tampa is 7-1. And then it drops a little to Chiefs plus 950 and Rams 11-1, Packers 11-1. It's crazy that there is like no team right now. The draft could change some of this, but I look at the NFC and I'm like, this could be one of those years

where we get like a 50 to one team makes the Super Bowl. Like it just seems, it just seems like there could be so much variance because Tampa who, if I had to pick a team, begrudgingly I would pick them. Their quarterbacks would be 45. You know, like who knows what that one, Green Bay is just way worse.

I don't know what the hell. They just were like, fine, Rogers, we'll pay you. And you could go nine and eight every year. And then they trade Adams to the other conference, which leads me to, I haven't heard your take on this. Adams and Tyreek both go in trades for a little less than what we usually assume. Ben Solak was on this podcast talking about

usually when it's like a top five guy at a big position, that's usually two first round picks every time. It changed a little this time. Tyreek goes to Miami to play with Tua, a guy who none of us are convinced can even get him the ball. Different coaching staff, different offense, whole thing. Devontae goes to Vegas, which seems like a pretty nice spot for him,

guy that he used to play for. But just in general, what is your, what's your feeling on the strategy of going all in on top five receivers, trading assets for them, and then paying them a lot of money? Well, I don't like the last part that you said, right? Like I'm okay trading some assets for a proven player. We've seen some teams in the NFL do that. In fact, over the last five years, the last five teams to win a Superbowl, I charted this out. The vast majority, it's like 80% of their quarterbacks, starting wide receivers, starting running backs and starting tight ends were on the first contract with that team. In other words, these aren't homegrown players that they drafted really well. These are GMs that have, through a variety of ways, like I'm going back to Howie Roseman and the Eagles. He signed a lot of free agents. Nick Foles comes in, wins the Super Bowl. He was a free agent that season, you know, all the way through to Tom

Brady winning it. And, and, and two years ago and Matthew Stafford winning it last year, quarterbacks in their first years with teams. Like we have seen teams put together rosters somewhat quickly and make runs to the Super Bowl. And I am totally fine. Previously, it was like, okay, you got to build and you got to build. But I'm totally fine with these teams going more all in. I'm more leery about the move for Devontae Adams,

not because I don't think he's an excellent wide receiver, but simply because the AFC is the AFC. And I mean, like, I don't know if he's the missing piece. I know they made the postseason last year. And so they probably felt good. Like, let's just get one more piece and we can go. But a lot of things broke right for the Raiders last year to do that.

And whereas in Miami, here's the thing about the Dolphins. I'm a closet to a fan. Like I'm a sleeper to a fan here. I'm a believer in the potential upside of what Tua can do. Here's one of the reasons why. I'm stunned. Wow. Wasn't expecting this. Yeah. It's like, welcome to the world.

I'm here. I feel like we're at a rehab meeting and you just confessed something. Well, I wrote about it in my book last year, heading into last season. Yeah, then he stunk. He was not great. However, here's the thing. Okay, let's take it back. Two years ago, not last year, but the year before that, Chan Gailey is running this offense, designs this offense for Ryan Fitzpatrick, makes zero adjustments once Tua gets there. Tua Chan even says after the season, like, I'm surprised we didn't change more with the offense. I'm like, dude, you're the guy designing the offense, but whatever. He was a grandfather. He just, they convinced him,

Brian Flores or some on the staff convinced them to come back when they got Ryan Fitzpatrick. That was an unmitigated disaster. Obviously Tua was rehabbing his injury and all of that type of thing. Last season, I will tell you this for a fact. The Miami Dolphins, a week before the start of the season, didn't know who was going to be calling plays for the offense. They had co-offensive coordinators entering last season. Guy A, Guy B. Guy A wasn't sure what was going to be happening. Guy B ends up calling the plays for several weeks.

Then Guy A starts calling the plays. We didn't know the full landscape of the tumult in that locker room with regard to the play calling and whatnot. But that was absolutely a factor. This team still ends up producing a winning record last year in the AFC. I think, I don't know what Mike McDaniel Pretty easy schedule for the most part for that winning record. True, true. No doubt about it. I don't know what Mike McDaniel is necessarily going to bring to this team, but I will say this. It's odd when we talk about strength of schedule for this upcoming season. Yes, they played the sixth easiest schedule last year.

Well, this year, the Miami Dolphins, I have them pegged as playing the 11th easiest schedule. So it gets a tiny bit harder, but it's still easier than average. And they get the fortune. Last year, they played the AFC South and the NFC South. So they had to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in that NFC South. This year they play the NFC North and what will be more difficult is the AFC North. So their schedule gets more difficult, but the NFC North, like you said, Green Bay is a little worse. And I don't know that the Bears are much better. The Lions are much better. So they still get

some benefit there. I think that AFC North, you might get the Cleveland game in the first six when Deshaun's suspended and all of a sudden that's the easiest game of your schedule. True, exactly. That very well could be the case. I think that Mike McDaniel is going to bring some things to this offense that are really gonna help make Tua look better like he made,

like that offense made Jimmy G look better. The San Francisco 49ers, the last four years in each of those seasons have led the NFL in yak, yards after the catch per reception. The way that this offense is designed is just like Andy Reid's to an extent. It's make life easy on the quarterback when possible. Let's get a wide zone run game.

We've got speedsters on the outside now with Tyreek Hill. You pick your poison. If you're gonna try to double him, we'll use the Shanahan runs style, which they also improve their offensive line and they're going to have success running the football. And then two is not really even involved in the offense. If you're not going to double Tyreek or you've got Jalen Waddle out there, it's going to be a lot of underneath passes that are high completion passes for the quarterback to complete. What Jimmy G did pretty well, though, actually, though, is throw the ball over the middle.

Two is going to have to prove. And I am not a believer that two is like a top 10 quarterback. I just think that he's going to be better than what many people are expecting. You always go, oh, well, they're just getting the offense built up for Teddy Bridgewater. I think this is a great strategy by the Dolphins front office. Give him every single asset that we can possibly get him. No excuses. He's either our starting quarterback for the future, our franchise guy, or he's not.

And this season is going to determine that. So here would be my counter. I don't know. I've been watching football since I was a kid. I tend to gravitate toward the quarterbacks that when the guys are running downfield, they can throw the ball and it reaches the guy who's running downfield.

It's usually one of the things I look for. It's pretty simple. Yeah. I just haven't seen it from him. He can do that, you know, the quick stuff, the tricky stuff, which is maybe going to be their whole offense. And I don't know. I think they're going to have weeks where they score 48 points and all that stuff works and they're playing the wrong defense

and they're just demolishing it. And it's like, Oh my God, they had 230 yards after the catch. But I don't know if that's I, to me, it's like Ben Solak said this. This is a one-year test now to see what they have with this dude. And you just laid it out. They gave him all the weapons. You're either good or you're not good. They'll know one way or the other after this year.

And if they know, they know. And if he's not the guy, you move on. You have for hardest... Let's go easy to schedule first. You had, um, top five, you laid this out on sharp football, Washington, Chicago, Philly, Indianapolis, and Seattle. And the reason people listening, this is why this is important. Every year there's the cream puff schedule team that has a record. That's three wins better than it should be.

And we're all looking at each other like, wait, is this team going to be like a two seed? What's going on here? So again, Washington, Chicago, Philly, Indianapolis, Seattle. To me, the one that jumps out is Indianapolis because you could argue, I'm not a massive Matt Ryan fan, but I think he's way more reliable than Carson Wentz. I thought that was a playoff team last year. I still can't believe they didn't make the playoffs. Jim Irsay also can't believe it.

He can't stop talking about it. I think he's given seven interviews about it. Every time he has a chance to do a drive-by on Wentz, he does. And that's a team they haven't, they didn't lose a ton this year. They added a couple of good people. So I would say either they're the same or a little bit better. We don't know what will happen with the draft.

That would be the team that jumps out for me. Which one of those five jumps out for you? For me, it's Washington. And here's the reason why Washington, um, had the number one, most difficult schedule of any team in the NFL last year, the number one, most difficult. Uh, they played nine games against playoff teams. Uh, they played, you know, by, by actual schedule metrics, the most difficult. Now they play the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. They get to go up against the AFC South who we just discussed. So maybe the path is a little easy for the Colts.

Yeah. That's who Washington gets to play in their non-division games this year. Last year in non-division games, they had to go up against the NFC South, right? Where they had Matt Ryan there. They had Drew Brees there. I'm sorry, not Drew Brees. They had Tom Brady there. And then the AFC West, one of the best divisions in football, obviously. Now they go up against the NFC North post Devante Adams being in Green Bay and they get the AFC South. And they also draw in non-division, but within the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons on their schedule too, which could be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. So you've got them, you've got like the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars are all on Washington's schedule this upcoming season. Plus Giants twice.

Yeah. Plus their own division, which is, you know, last year was the worst division in the NFL. So you've got the Giants twice, you've got the Eagles twice. And, you know, I don't know what Dallas is going to be. They lost a couple of pieces this year. And I just think that they're not building this team very intelligently, especially with the amount of money that is now hitting the cap for Zeke. And they have to lose all these other options and players because they're choosing to spend Zeke instead.

But the reason that. Yeah, that's tough. It's very tough. Well, they lost Cooper. And who is that? I'm blanking. Cedric Wilson. They signed James Washington, who I don't know. I feel like he's been in the league for 100 years.

And it's another year of Dak, who ever since Mad Dog said that Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins were the same guy, I haven't been able to get it out of my head. Their stats are exactly the same. Same playoff success, same everything. So yeah, you're right. Is anybody going to be good in that division? It's probably good for Washington. Yeah. The one thing I just want to add about the strength of schedule, you know, I just did these calculations based on some of the win totals that came out. And so

back up like five years, no one was calculating strength of schedule this way. We all talked about strength of schedule based upon what the team's prior year win loss record was. And I started calculating it based on this methodology of utilizing future projected wins to measure the strength of an opponent based upon a real market that Vegas is working hard to set lines for. And then the public and sharp bettors are betting into to adjust those numbers. So we can look at in real time strength of schedule as it changes, as the market is changing and adjusting to bets that are coming in. And what is most important when we talk about strength of schedule,

smart on you for talking about the five easiest, and I'm sure we're going to go the opposite way and talk about the five hardest. And that's because what truly matters with strength of schedule is the extremes, the easier schedules and the more difficult schedules, not what's in the middle, not if you were 13 one year and you're 20 the next year, that doesn't really matter that much in the grand scheme of things. What matters is these big inflections. But last season, okay, we look at the result of last year. Eight teams, the top eight most difficult schedules

by the end of last season. At this time last year, so in beginning of April of last season, I ran my strength schedule calculation. I projected seven of those eight teams accurately in terms of these eight teams are going to have the most difficult schedule. I predicted seven of them. And so obviously. So in April, early April, you're saying these are the eight easiest schedules. Beginning of January, you're proven correct on seven of the

eight. Yeah. Eight toughest schedules, eight toughest schedules. On the easiest side of things, I was right on six of the top seven to rank inside the top 10. So it wasn't quite as perfect, but I mean, look at how much changes from a period of time to the next. So I'm mainly focusing, is this methodology generally a sound methodology to look at the toughest and the easiest schedules? And from last year, it was bang on really good. And so we'll see what happens this year. Every year is different, but those were the five easiest. And the interesting note for you is that Washington, which was number one, and Chicago, which was number two, both of those teams last year had 10 most difficult schedules. And now they've got top two easiest. Whereas you mentioned the Colts and the Seahawks and the Eagles, those are number three, four, and five,

not in that order, but three, four, and five. Those teams all had easier than average schedules last year. The Eagles, in fact, had the number five easiest schedule last year. They got the number three this year. The Colts had number 11 last year. They have number four this year. So yes, they are easier than average. They still played easy schedules last year and their results were what we just saw. Now it's a matter of did they get better? I do believe when we dig into the Colts, I like Matt Ryan for this offense. I like Matt Ryan better than I liked Carson Wentz. So I do think that there's more upside with the Colts this year than there was last year, because I think Matt Ryan is clearly, in my opinion, superior to Carson Wentz. I used to do this when I wrote my football column for ESPN. I would always try to figure out the out of nowhere team. I can't believe this team is

going to go 12 and four or 11 and five team. And then I would announce the team when I did my NFL preview. I was using my data was way, way, way more primitive than yours. I would just go through the schedule and be like, that game looks easy. That game looks easy. This is now like the evolution of that. I also think, especially with how gambling focused things have gotten over the last five, six years, it does seem like a lot of people are looking at this. And by the time we get to August, a lot of people are circling like the same kind of sleeper candidates. So in a weird way, it's become almost tougher to find the sleeper because you can't be a sleeper if everybody's targeting the same three teams. I want to talk about the NFC East though. We're going to take a quick break.

Just to put a bow on the Washington thing. The NFC East, to me, it's like there's so much division value right now because it's all like just the, the, the public thinking like, oh, well of course Dallas should be the favorite. It's like, should they Dallas on Fandle right now is minus one 15 Phillies plus three 10 Washington's plus four 50. And then it drops to the giants plus six 50 to me, Dallas, Philly, Washington, that could go any direction, right? I don't see, I don't see why one of them would be favored more than the other. What the Washington piece obviously is Wentz and, you know, just being scarred by him. Wentz does have a case though. He did have COVID in December and came

back and had his two worst games. And if I was him, I would be banging that one home, trying to win the conference of the Washington fans. Like, man, I was in a COVID fog for a month. I don't even remember that Jacksonville game. Like that's the only way I would have confidence in me if I was Washington. But, um, Philly at plus three 10 is the one,

like when you think like all the draft capital they have, you know, they were solid last year. They weren't great. They weren't great. They weren't bad. It's weird to me that they have way worse odds than Dallas. I don't know if I could bet on Wentz, but I could talk myself into a Philly bet.

Where do you have Philly? I think that the smart money is on every team but Dallas right now. And I've got to look a little bit more at which team I would want to target specifically. But I do, I mean, look, Jalen Hurts in another year with this offense, they had a brand new coaching staff last year. Keep in mind last season, the Philadelphia Eagles came out the gates at the last, in the first month of the year, the most, one of the most pass heavy offenses in the NFL, right? You were going nuts. You were losing your mind. They were throwing the ball all the time. And the problem was what defenses started doing was they went with light boxes at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Only Josh Allen and Patrick

Mahomes saw more light boxes than what Jalen Hurts was seeing. And Jalen Hurts isn't anywhere near those caliber of quarterbacks. So Philadelphia had to, must pivot towards running the football here. They have a great run blocking offensive line. That's what they did. And lo and behold, this team ends up sneaking into the playoffs, right? Like this was a playoff team last year. I think we all forget that maybe at this point in the off season, but-

I didn't forget it. I hit that Bucs bet. I loved it. I love that the Eagles were in the playoffs. The Bucs smoked them in the postseason. But I think the Eagles with a better strategy this off season, understanding what hurts is and is not, and a coaching staff that's had a year under its belt. I think that's a place that's going to get better. Even if you look at the team that you didn't mention much at, well, first let's talk about Wentz before we talk about the Giants. Carson Wentz, there was a stretch for the Indianapolis Colts where Carson Wentz was actually playing efficiently. He wasn't dynamic. He was playing efficiently. The problem with Carson Wentz though,

when he was in Indianapolis, they had a great pass blocking offensive line and they had a great run game. And they tried not to ask him to do a whole lot unless they needed him to, except for that one game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where they came out throwing the football a ton after their first drive to that game. And they did pretty well against Tom Brady's team with that great run defense. And Carson played relatively well for much of that game with a couple of mistakes thrown in. But that's where I'm getting to here is that when he goes to Washington, Washington is far more of a pass first offense and they don't have as good of an offensive line. And so Carson Wentz is going to be asked to throw the ball more in these early down situations.

And he'll determine more of the outcome of the game with his decision making and execution on these early down plays in the first half of the game. So you think it's most interceptions bet, maybe, for Wentz? Maybe, maybe. It's going to be on Scott Turner to figure out the best way to utilize him. And, you know, when I watched him, good luck indeed. When I watched him in Philadelphia, when I watched him in Indianapolis, you know, I was just on DC radio the other day telling them this. I think there's going to be points in the season where you guys

are going to see Carson Wentz performance. You're going to say, wait, this is better than what I've been hearing about. Like I thought he was going to be a total disaster. The reality is Carson Wentz is their best quarterback that they've had in several years. He's better than he's the best quarterback, for example, that Terry McLaurin has caught a pass from or will catch a pass from last season. No receiver in the NFL with at least 100 targets had more uncatchable balls thrown to him than did Terry McLaurin. The quarterback situation in D.C. has been horrendous. So Wentz will be an improvement where you're going to see the problems with Wentz is he has massive, I don't know what

goes on in his brain, but he has massive brain farts. He holds onto the ball. He thinks he's Superman and can do anything that he wants to. And he'll make dumb decisions in the pocket from time to time. And unfortunately, it's in these, generally speaking, in these really high leverage situations where you need a touchdown drive from the team. And all of a sudden he's holding the ball and takes a sack fumble. He's worse than having a bad QB because he can tantalize you into thinking he's a good QB.

And then he kicks you in the nuts when you least expect it. Like everyone who had the Colts in any money parlay in that last week against the Jags. And it's like, oh, he's that restaurant in your neighborhood that you have to go to because it's close and you got to take your kids there. And it's like C minus food. And then every once in a while you get food poisoning. But then occasionally you can have an awesome burger. You just don't know where you're going to get. You don't really have another choice.

That's, you think like Washington, I mean, they were playing Alex Smith two years ago who had, how many surgeries did he have? Like 30? And he was terrified to get hit. That was good. They played in football games. Lowest ADOT of any team. And I think that that's why Scott has more to work with here. But yeah, it's going to be a roller coaster ride for them indeed. And then when we talk about that, I'm out on them. I, the Philly thing to me is so much more intriguing when you think, I mean, they have 15, 16 and 19 in the draft. What if they just hit on all three of those guys? What if that's three starters? What if they it's one starter and then they use the other two to move up and get an impact guy on the top of it. They made the playoffs last year. I, to me, that's the best bet in that division. The one team that you haven't mentioned though, and I'm not going to disagree with you. I will say this, the impact that true rookies that aren't quarterbacks have in year one is we tend to

overrate that. Now, a guy like Micah Parsons ended up having a great season last year for Dallas and made impact on the field. And there are certain guys that stand out from time to time, but generally speaking, it's more, it's less likely that that's going to work out to provide a good year one impact. It's usually on the lines, right? Usually it's like, Oh, line D line guys are the ones that help the most. The one team you haven't mentioned though, in the NFC East is the New York giants. Are you totally out on Daniel Jones? Is that the main reason? Let's move on. So we got easiest,

Washington, Chicago, Philly, Indianapolis, and Seattle. Let's spend 30 seconds on this. That's it. 30 seconds. Chicago, bad division, new coach, rookie QB, second year.

They don't have a first round pick because they traded it to get fields. But is that a write-off to you? Or should we look at them? Or what do we do? On the fence, need to see more of what their win total comes out at. But from early numbers that I saw,

the early and smart money was betting the under from seven and a half down to seven at some spots. From early numbers that I saw, the early and smart money was betting the under, from seven and a half down to seven at some spots. And so even despite the easy schedule, people are not as high on the Chicago Bears this year. Yeah, I think that's... And they trade Mack. So then the other one in your top five easiest schedule is Seattle. Look, Russell Wilson is ineligible for the Ewing theory because he won a Super Bowl. And if you win a title, you become ineligible. On the other hand,

I didn't think he was that good the last couple of years. And, you know, this might be a transition year for them. Who knows? But I do, I do wonder if they'll have a little hop in their step to try to prove it doesn't seem like he was very popular in Seattle by the end. And that division is going to be super weird. I don't know what to make of that. So anyway, all right, we'll go to hardest schedule. Here's who you have, top five hardest schedules. And the first one got a gasp for me because there's a lot of stuff lining up

that make me nervous about this team. But here it is. From five to one, hardest schedule. Number five, Las Vegas. Number four, San Francisco. Number three, the LA Rams. Number two, sadly, the New York Jets. And then Warren Sharpe's number one hardest schedule, the Kansas City Chiefs.

It's a lot of red flags lining up with this team. A bizarre ending in the Bengals' playoff game, really from the moment at the end of the first half when they could have put that team away.

And it's just two hours of the craziest dysfunction, bad play calling, bad performance. Cincinnati doesn't even really play that well and they steal the game. Then you go to the offseason, they trade Tyreek, they lose this magical Kelsey-Tyreek

Mahomes combo. They're rebuilding now with a bunch of draft picks and as you said, on the one hand, hey, great, we have a ton of draft picks. On the other hand, who knows? Then they get Valdez, Gantling, and Juju. I don't know. Valdez, Scantling, I can't remember him doing one thing in the Niners game in the

playoffs. Juju, Steelers seem pretty happy to let him leave. And now you're telling me KC has the hardest schedule, and we know they're in the hardest division. I see some red flags, Warren Sharp. There are a number some red flags, Warren Sharp. There are a number of red flags, absolutely. On this team, the only good thing going from them from a schedule perspective is they played the sixth toughest schedule last season. Oftentimes though, we saw something that helped your team, New England Patriots,

in years where they had Tom Brady and they either were off of a Super Bowl win or a Super Bowl loss. Every year it's like, okay, you think that they do well. So they were the number one division, number one seed in their division. That means they're going to play other number one seeds. And so that's going to make their schedule difficult. But then you looked at the Patriots schedule every year and it was like one of the easier schedules in the NFL. It's like, OK, well, how fair is this? But for the Chiefs, that's not the case whatsoever. They go from playing just this move alone makes things very difficult. But they go from playing the NFC East last year to the NFC

West this year. The NFC East, the worst division in football last year, the NFC West this year. Yeah, I mean, we don't know yet what the San Francisco 49ers are going to do. And yes, Seattle doesn't have Russell Wilson. That is still a very difficult division. The NFC West is, um, they do have to play the, uh, because they finished number one, they have to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have to play the Buffalo bills. They have to play the, uh, Cincinnati Bengals who were the, a prime candidate for regression for me, at least after the Superbowl, uh, looking to fade them. I was hoping to find more markets where I could bet the nose of what they wouldn't do. The books only put, will they get to the playoffs? Will they win the division? Will they make it to the Super Bowl? Will they win the Super Bowl? They don't allow you

to bet the nose on any of those things. So I was looking to fade them more so. Even after they beefed up their offensive line? Because I actually like their offseason so far. So did that change for you? It did change a little bit now that they have addressed one of their primary weaknesses. And I saw more of what their strategy is from a play calling perspective last season. Like after the Super Bowl, a week after the Super Bowl, I was looking to potentially try to fade them. There was no markets to do that. Now, after free agency, I do think that they are a little bit better. And so that's a team that the Kansas City Chiefs have to play this season. You mentioned all of the offseason movement. What do we know that they're still going to do, though? They are

looking to pass the football. That's because Andy Reid is their coach. So that is never going to change. Losing Tyreek changes how defenses play you anytime that he's out on the field, even if he's not being targeted. So that absolutely is going to impact this offense. Now, you also have, you also have Kelsey right around the stage when tight ends start to go downhill a little bit. I mean, he's had five, six years in a row elite and the history of the tight end position and the hits that those guys take. And he's in his early thirties now. I don't know. To me, every year that he can stay at the level he's been at the last five years is surprising me at this point. Yeah, definitely. Now the benefit he has is he's not used as a blocker nearly as much as most tight ends. He's asked more to run

the types of routes that wide receivers run. But that said, I mean, as you get older and you're bigger and you have a larger frame, those joints, all the beating that they've taken, like you are going to see something. You just kind of look up the history of that position and you have like, what, four or 500 catch seasons. And that's usually where it ends, except for like, you know, even somebody like Gonzalez.

They usually have like the four to five to six year peak, but that's it. So I don't know. I'm interested to see. There was some moments last year when it looked like he was starting to fade a little bit and then he rallied again when we got close to the playoffs. But I wouldn't lock him into another like 150 target season or anything like that. Yeah, which is tough because they might need that because of no Tyreek out there, but you're right. Eventually some of these

guys end up becoming more situational players and then utilized more inside of the red zone, you know, as their quickness and speed declines as they get older. But there's a lot to have concerns about, but, and, and making that Tyreek Hill move, in my opinion, was smart not to pay him because you couldn't afford him. If you were paying Mahomes and Tyreek, who else are you going to add to your roster

that needs extra players? So I like the fact that they let him leave, but my take on that whole situation is it hurts their ability to win a Super Bowl this year. It helps their ability to win Super Bowls in the future because they're going to have the players that they can make moves with now, and they don't have to allocate so much of the cap space to him while they're paying Mahomes. However, this team is always a threat because they have Mahomes, who's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL,

and they have one of the smartest coaches in the NFL in terms of Andy Reid who understands how to design offense and the necessity to throw the football a lot. You're not as high on Reid? That Bengals game was alarming. I honestly think that's one of the biggest misfires I've seen from a team. I still can't believe

they lost it. A guy I like listening to and reading to by the name of Warren Sharp. One of the things you love to look at is opposing quarterbacks when a team, in two ways, one going forward, who are the quarterbacks they're playing? And then B, during the season, looking back, it's like, oh, that team's eight and one. Well, wait a second. They played Daniel Jones, and they played rookie QB, and they went against Carson Wentz. This is a little soft.

They haven't been playing. So anyway, here are the QBs KC is playing this year, and we don't know what the dates are going to be, but we know they have Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson twice, Davis Mills. There's an easy one Matt Ryan Justin Herbert twice Derek Carr twice

Trevor Lawrence Ryan Tannehill Matt Stafford Seattle QB TBD Trey Lance Joe Burrow Josh Allen Tom Brady

Is that every good quarterback we have Other than Aaron Rodgers? It's pretty brutal. It is pretty brutal, especially now that Drew Brees is no longer in the NFL. I'm trying to think of some of the other top guys that he, I guess Deshaun, if Deshaun comes back at the same level,

but yeah, it's basically they, they get every good QB except for Rodgers and, and Deshaun. And on top of it, they're getting a lot of guys who, you know, are, these would be games that will be on national TV. There'll be Sunday night games, Monday night. They're going

to be getting the best week after week. And I don't know, man, they're over under on, uh, in some of the stuff that's come out. It's been, what is it? 11? Oh, it's, It's 11. And I will tell you, it's moved 10 cents to the under. So it's 11. It opened at minus 35 to the under. It's now minus 45 to the under. So some of the early sharper money. Now, keep in mind, when we talk about the early sharp money, here's one thing to understand about these types of markets is that a lot of people like me and the groups that I work with, we're not firing at openers at one book to mess up our ability to get lines. We want to see what the lines are when a bunch of books have their numbers up so that we can then attack and get as much money down as possible spread out across a lot of books. So yes, the early money that whatever book is out

respects has ticked the line a little bit in the direction of the under. But I wouldn't say that like all the sharpest bettors are the ones who have been moving that number. And I hate even really seriously looking at the over-unders until after the draft, but Indy at nine and a half seemed low to me because I did feel like I just feel like that's a 10 win team that's a 10 and 7 team at least if you're telling me they're bringing last year's team back they hit a couple good draft picks and the Matt Ryan upgrade

so second hardest schedule we have the Jets the poor Jets they're over under his 5.5 right now they beefed up a lot in free agency though. And I don't know. I, that's going to come down to is Wilson good or not, but they did. They signed a lot of dudes. Um, I have Jets fans in my life who were like, we're on our way back.

Here's the roadmap. Uh, the Rams. Well, the Jets, the Jets played the AFC South last year, which was not a good division. And they played the NFC South, which obviously aside from Tampa Bay, which is not a good division this year, they're going to play the AFC North, which like you said, are they going to have to face Deshaun Watson or not? That's to be determined. And, you know, Lamar Jackson, I think a lot of people forget the Baltimore Ravens here. The Baltimore Ravens, do you know that as of December 1st last year, do you know who the number one seed was in the AFC?

It was the Ravens. The Baltimore Ravens were the number one seed as of December 1st last year. And then Lamar had an injury and the team fell off the rails and they played back of quarterbacks and they missed the playoffs altogether. But this is still a team that, you know, is a dangerous team anytime Lamar is on the field, like him or not, think that he's the best quarterback or top five in the NFL in terms of passing acumen. This is a dangerous team when Lamar is on the field.

And so they have to play the AFC North. They have obviously they're playing the AFC East, which is only getting better around them. You know, Buffalo and Miami this year and the Patriots, your Patriots. And now they're playing the NFC North instead of the NFC South. And so, yes, you lose Devontae Adams, but that is a better division this year than what the NFC South was last season. So it is going to be very difficult for the New York Jets.

And their win total has been has been bet to the under as well. Baltimore, they're over is nine and a half. It's so funny that the owner was pissed about the Deshaun contract because he knows they already were having an issue with the Lamar trying to figure out the extension for him. What's his durability? What's he going to look like four years from now? Is he going to be the same kind of running thing? I would be nervous after watching how Russell Wilson's game changed over the second half of last decade. Once he wasn't, you know, as much of a threat to just kind of scramble around and do stuff, what, how that changed who he was as a quarterback. And, you know, with the Lamar thing, um, man, that Watson

and the Rogers, and Rogers and if you're him it's like I have to get at least 150 million guaranteed like we're just starting there and really I would like in the 200s why should Deshaun Watson get more than me

I've never had 22 civil suits against me I've been a really good teammate and you know I'm a big part of this city take care of me and if they don't do that, that's going to linger over the season in a bunch of different ways.

He's got a great case to get paid. I mean, if you just look at, I know quarterback wins, some people hate them, but if you just look at the record when he's on the field versus when he's not, it's not even close. He was a unanimous MVP. I didn't get, you know, I know the team has said, and I read the article that came out. I think I forget what it was published in where they've said, we want to pay him. He just needs to come up, come to us because he was cheap on the salary cap his first four years under his rookie deal. This fifth year, which is the fifth year option that he's playing under his salary cap is now up to like, I think it's like in the $20 million mark. If they got a longer term deal worked out, they could lower his

cap hit for this season, just like the Buffalo Bills did with Josh Allen when he first signed his contract. And just like the Kansas City Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes when he first signed his contract. That's one thing we didn't mention about Mahomes. His cap hits prior to this year have been less than $10 million every year, even though he signed that what $450 million contract or whatever it was. They still bought like a year or two of cheap cap hit for him up front. That's now gone. So the Ravens could absolutely do this and still get Lamar for a couple more years of cheap cap before his cap hit starts to go up, you know, commensurate with his big contract that he's going to sign.

What I didn't understand from this article, though, is they say they want to pay him. They say that he needs to just come. But there was a sentence. They want to pay him. Well, there's a sentence in there that I completely I mean, some people in my mentions are like, yes, you hit it right. This is what it sounded like to me. And others are like, I think you're misreading this. But the quote was the kid is from Biscotti, their owner, but Ravens owner, the kid is so obsessed with winning a Superbowl that I think deep down, he doesn't think he's worthy. And I think he meant he doesn't think he's worthy of getting this big contract until he wins a Superbowl. If that's what the, the owner of the team thinks, I think that's ludicrous. Now maybe Lamar said

that he's like, I want to win a Superbowl and then I'll get paid. But like Lamar is his record on the field, his MVP season. Like he's definitely worthy right now. He doesn't need to win a Super Bowl to prove that he's worthy. They just gave, as you mentioned, a ridiculous guaranteed contract to a guy with with 22. I'll tell you this, though. I'd be really worried about these super crazy expensive contracts if I was, because I've just seen what had happened in the NBA. Some of the guys are worth it, right?

You're paying Giannis. You don't have to think about it again, but there's other ones. Like Westbrook's going to make $47.5 million next year, you know, and he's a disaster. And you go on down the line, you look at the highest contracts, and they have like a, I would say like maybe a 50 to 60% hit rate of succeeding in the NBA. There's still that 40%.

There's injuries. There's all these different things that can happen. And you get stuck with that in football. My fix on this would be, I think every team should have one contract that doesn't count against the cap. And I think that would be really fun for the agents, for the contract negotiations, all this stuff. Where it's almost like soccer.

You could just make $75 million a year. Wait, before we go, you had the Rams in San Francisco, third and fourth toughest schedules. We don't have to cover that because we know. Both of those teams did really well last year. They're in a hard division. It makes sense. Vegas was the other one. There's some regression teams from last year that I'm eyeing. We have a lot of time to go on this, but I think you hit it earlier. I think Vegas is one of them overachieved last year. Um, they, you think as some of the Gruden draft picks, a lot of them are gone already,

including somebody like Ruggs, who was the 12th pick in the draft. Then they traded more picks to get Devontae. And it's one of those teams, they have some blue chip guys, and it just doesn't seem like the rest of the roster is going to be there. New coach, maybe that'll help.

McDaniels, if he steps up. But I look at them in that division, they're over under as eight and a division. Their over-under is 8.5. That seems really high to me because somebody's going to go 8.9 or worse in that division with how stacked it is, and especially if we're all playing harder schedules. I didn't like that at all. That line really hasn't moved so far,

but 8.5 for the Raiders. Did that jump out at you? Well, it actually opened. What I'm seeing, the opener was eight over was juiced to minus 125. Now it's eight and a half, even on both sides, minus one 10 on both sides. Um, the, the Raiders, obviously a team last year, they did play a difficult schedule. In fact, I show them as having played. I want to say the, an identical difficulty of schedule last year is this year in terms of where they rank in the NFL. But last season, when we talk about what did this team do, they went three and three versus playoff teams. And so they played six of them. They were going to play eight teams

this season who made the playoffs last year. Remember all the variants they had to that? What was that? The one score in the OT? They were like, what, six and one? They went, yeah, six and one. They went seven and two overall in one score games during the regular season. That's not happening again. When they won the turnover margin, this team was five and one. And you know how disruptive that pass rush, and they got a lot of interceptions and sack fumbles and whatnot. But when they didn't win the turnover margin, even if they tied it, they were five and six. So they had a losing record when they didn't win the turnover margin. They had a great record when they won it. And that's probably going to regress a little bit as well this year.

Yes, getting Devontae Adams helps a ton. But, you know, I think that this is a team with a difficult schedule, difficult division. They now play the NFC West as well. They were a team that played the East last year, NFC East, who's going to the NFC West this season. It's just going to be a tough task. And they get to play last year. They played the Dolphins this year.

They play your Patriots out of out of division. So it is going to be a very difficult schedule for him once again. On Fando, AFC West Chiefs plus 155 Chargers plus 240 Denver plus 260 Raiders 701 Chargers plus 240, Denver plus 260, Raiders 7-1. Chargers plus 240, I actually think they should be favored in that division because you figure Staley's not going to do a dumber job coaching the team in year two. I hope he learned at least

from a couple of his mistakes. Herbert getting better, JC Jackson, they add Mack, the Rams, they know they have to compete with them in LA even though nobody cares about either team in LA. I see them coming. We have to go.

Give me one quick prediction as we head toward the draft. Anything you're looking at, any sort of monkey wrench you're focused on for the next couple weeks? A QB? Do you feel like if the Steelers got weeks? Just like a QB. Like, do you feel like, like if the Steelers got a rookie QB who could play right away, would you think of them differently?

Anything along those lines? I would not think of them differently. I will say this. The Chargers have gone under their win total for three straight years. Everybody loves betting overs on the Chargers. Oh, that's good. Three consecutive years, they've gone under their win total. I guess my early prediction, you kind of hinted at this, and I'm going to do a lot more with strength of schedule over the coming weeks.

And we're going to do some more on the Ringer Gambling Show, of course, talking about it. I think there is going to be a team that really surprises some people out of the NFC East. I know that team for you is the Philadelphia Eagles.

I mean, you didn't want to talk about the Giants. I'm not predicting that they're going to be that surprise team. But I'm not giving them time. They can go to hell. You can cut me off. Danny, Danny dimes year four. You're in. I'm not in on him. I'm in on the fact that that coaching staff last year was absolutely trash strategy. And I'm, I'm, I'm a massive dayball fan. And I think that that team, from a strategic perspective, is going to get so much more upside out of this roster and this offense in general and their ability to score points

and their ability to not punt the football back to opponents. But I will say this, year one play caller who is a head coach, it's a lot of burden on the head coach. That's a tough role to have your call with Arthur Smith last year. Saw it with Arthur Smith, Brandon Staley's run into it too. Obviously he's on the defensive side of the football, but it's just very difficult for those offensive coordinators who are then all of a sudden becoming head coaches that have to do that role. So I think it's a team that's going to give some people trouble. And what is their win total here? I think their win total is it is, it was seven and a half.

It's been bet down to seven. So maybe I'm going to let that take as low as possible. All right. So you're going to be on the Ringer Gambling Show with Ben Solak a couple of times as we head toward the draft because both of you love betting the draft props. And then check out Sharp Football Analysis. The big book's coming out when? July?

Beginning of July or end of June. Yeah. I'm already working on it deep into research. All right. Good to see you, my friend. Thanks Bill. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Warren sharp. Thanks to Jake Caspian Kang. Thanks to Rob Mahoney. Don't forget to listen to the prestige TV podcast. We have a bunch of, a bunch of good shows that are in the mix right now. I think I'm going to be doing Winning Time next week on there for the mid-season, by the way. We crashed, drop out, super pumped,

all winding down. Bridgerton we covered on there this week. And Atlanta, Rem and Van are doing that every week. Check out the Prestige TV pod. Check out the Rewatchables. Panic Room last week. We check out the Prestige TV pod. Check out the Rewatchables.

Panic Room last week. We have a Bruce Willis movie coming up on Monday night. And I will see you on this feed on Sunday. Enjoy the side. I don't have feelings within. On the wayside, never on the side.