The Bill Simmons Podcast - Jimmy G’s Last Stand, Stafford’s Swoon, and Round 1 Million-Dollar Picks with Ben Solak and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: January 13, 2022

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ben Solak to discuss the biggest storylines from Round 1 of the NFL playoffs, including how Rams-Cardinals will affect the perception of the Matt Stafford trade, Patriots-Bills Part 3, and more (1:44). Plus: Was Jimmy G the 49ers' savior all along? Then Bill talks to NFL Network’s Peter Schrager about every Round 1 playoff game (53:43) before making the Million-Dollar Picks (1:50:55). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ben Solak and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, we have a new food podcast. It's actually on the old House of Carbs feed. It is now called a Ringer Food. Food News with Juliet Limon and Dave Jacoby. That show is on there. And House of Carbs is back. Ringer Food, check it out on Spotify or wherever you listen to your podcasts.

This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Light keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer,

that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year.

I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch a pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate,

offensive TDs in the next drive. They have so much stuff, it's crazy. The app is safe and secure and easy to use. And when you win, you'll get paid instantly. Plus, look out for FanDuel Squares this season. Here's what you have to do. Visit fanduel.com slash BS to download America's number one sportsbook.

The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. And listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100-800-GAMBLER

or visit rg-help.com. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you love TV, we're breaking down euphoria every Sunday night, Nora Princiati and Joanna Robinson. And then on Monday, I'm gonna be on there talking about the season finale of Yellow Jacket. So stay tuned for that. New rewatchable is coming on Monday as well.

It's a sports movie. That's the only hint I'm giving you. Sports movie. I'll give you one more hint. I mean, the Winter Olympics are coming up. I wonder what sort of sports movie time we can do with that. So that's happening. Don't forget Ringer Food,

which used to be the House of Carbs feed, and now we revamped it into Ringer Foods. House of Carbs is still going to be on there plus Food News with Dave Jacoby and Juliet Libman and a whole bunch of other stuff as well. The House of Carbs put up a special football podcast related to

the best dishes from each of the seven NFC teams. Natalie Rubin and Craig Horlbeck were on that as well. Good stuff. Coming up on this podcast, football, football and more football from TheRinger.com. Ben Solak, we're going to talk about the biggest

storylines of round one. And then Peter Schrager and I are going to do some million dollar picks. So there you go. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this. It's a little after 10 a.m. Pacific time. The Terminator, Ben Solak, is here from The Ringer. You can hear him on The Ringer Gambling Show. You can hear him on the Ringer NFL Show as well.

Do you like seven playoff teams? The Eagles made it. So, yep, as the seventh, I'll take that. In general, it is a mess, and I don't think it was necessary. But I get the cash grab, and it's more playoff football, so I'm not going to complain. That's how I feel as well and then you see the Steelers

with the carcass of the Steelers in there and you're like, ah, so... It led to the Sunday night game which, you know, if there's no seven seed at stake, we don't have the drama

we had in that game. And that's the thing is it's like the AFC parody, like all the craziness in that conference this year was fun until the Raiders

and the Steelers made the playoffs. They were like, oh wait, this isn't as fun as I thought it was going to be. That's what a wider playoff field does for you. It means you've got teams that are still bunched and super late in season, which was always the plan. So, kudos to the NFL for the execution. I wish it was 3-3 Saturday or Sunday.

I don't like the Monday as much, but it's just the classic NFL overthinking it. I'm not going to complain. We have six playoff games to talk about. I want to throw the 10 most fun storylines from round one at you. I'm going to talk picks later with Schrager. These are start, but we can weave in the games with these things.

Just things I jotted down that I think make round one. I think it's a really fun round one. I like all the games. We don't have like the one game that has the terrible quarterback other than Roethlisberger, who you know is, but even that one's kind of fun because it's his last game. Steelers, Tomlin, the Chiefs have been just flimsy enough at certain points that it just doesn't seem like a slam dunk.

With that said, I'm taking the Chiefs. Most fun storyline to me. What if Jimmy G was San Francisco's savior all along? That's my number one thing on my list. Top thing on my list is, can Jimmy G save it? Can he just turn this whole thing around?

It's hilarious. He's in this situation. He's kind of the previous guy. He's the old boyfriend trying to talk yourself into new candidates and he's just kind of hanging around. It seemed like we were kicking

dirt on him. Especially for me, that Thursday night game against Tennessee when he just basically gave away the game and it's like, alright, they've blown it. They might not even make the playoffs. They're down 17-0 in the Rams game. And it's like, all right, they've blown it. They might not even make the playoffs. They're down 17-0 in the Rams game. And he just had this resilience to him. He's been to a Super Bowl.

There's a world in which San Francisco, Dallas, the winner of this game, could actually represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. And we could be looking at this four or five weeks from now going, oh my God, San Francisco made the Super Bowl with GBG. Yet they traded all these picks for Trey Lance. What if he was their savior all along? Is this possible?

It is because Jimmy is who he's always been when he's been in this offense and he's been healthy. I was looking this up with, I got a piece coming out, talking about Jimmy, whatever, from 2017 to 2020, right?

So Jimmy's whole entire career in San Francisco up to this season. In terms of like EPA per dropback, right? So your catch-all metric for are you playing well. He's the third best quarterback over that stretch. It goes Brady, Breeze, or it goes Mahomes, Breeze, him. And then it's like Brady and Lamar and Russ and like everybody else we've viewed as elite. We've talked about his MVP and Jimmy's just there in the middle of it. When he's in

this offense, it works so well. This season, he's fifth in dropback success rate, sixth in the EK per dropback. He is exactly what he's always been. Extremely good at executing the offense. The issue was always health. It was always, can he stay on the field? Can he be available? And he's got hurt twice this year. Both times he's

been able to come back and both times he's fended off Trey Lance from holding on to the starting job. And so this is like, this is what he is. When he is healthy and running the offense, the offense is really, really stinking good. So healthy Jimmy is potential Niners playoff run. I absolutely believe that, especially because the only other time they made a run with Jimmy was when they had the elite defensive line and the high quality Robert Saleh defense. And D'Amico Ryan's this year. They kept the same defensive line coach. That defensive line is nuts good. And in the secondary, they are making as much

chicken salad out of no corn as you possibly can. Very impressive job. So this looks like the Niners team that did it, that made the push. And if Jimmy stays healthy, why not, man? Well, and they're the most obvious game in week one. There's a ton of money on it. Fandle just told me 65% of the bets

are on San Francisco. All over the place, it's the underdog that people have gravitated to. I knew we were in trouble on Coward. I saw on Tuesday on my Twitter feed, Coward was already grabbing San Francisco plus three. He just tweeted though today. He said, too many people

are on it now. I'm lost. I'm getting off the train. He said, this is the mush and I don't want a part of it. Well, and that's a big thing in the playoff gambling manifesto, which I've been working on

for the last 20 years of my life. One of the biggest rules, which I'm going to find as soon as I can figure out how to scroll on an iPad. One of the biggest rules, rule number five, beware of the

everybody believes in us team which the Niners have become now I'm going to flip it a tiny bit maybe we believe in them for a reason because

if I'm the Packers what team do I not want to play absolutely I have round two round three that's all I have to worry about I'm at home both games who's the team

I don't want to play I don't want to play whatever 2022's version is of those Eli Giants teams, which is basically this Niners team. Run the ball, good defense, couple playmakers. And I think the Niners could win in any building. And I think they might be the only team I would say that about because I'm not a believer in the Packers defense like some other people. Where do you stand on that, by the way? I very much appreciate the improvements that they made.

I remember talking with you about that Packers Cardinals game and saying like this, this Packers defense needs to get tested. They've gotten so much better across the course of the regular season, but they absolutely are a some of the parts sort of a defense, right? They are a defense that because they all coalesce together, it works. And that's a scary defense because all of a sudden you get Mark They are a defense that because they all coalesce together, it works. And that's a scary defense because all of a sudden you get Mark Andrews

up against Darnell Savage, who's supposed to be a good one of their top players in that Ravens game. And they just start hammering one matchup. And it's a reminder that there are pieces in this defense

that if you can get one-on-ones, you can just hit it, hit it, hit it. They're exploitable. Absolutely, the Packers don't want to see the Niners. Remember that that NSC championship game on the Niners run where the Niners just poured it

on them in a running game, right? The worst thing you can do against Rogers and make them sit. And that's what the Niners did. They've done it against Stafford. They did it against Tannehill in that game. They lost it, obviously,

but they can take those opening drives and just demolish the clock. And all of a sudden you're playing from way behind on a much shorter clock than you expected. No team is better than that against the Niners. So what's your answer to elite quarterbacks? Well, either have an elite defense, which I don't think there's a single elite defense in this field, or

be able to just hold on to the football. And the Niners do that better than anybody. And they have Debo and Kittle, two premier playmakers. They have a couple other receivers who will make plays. Last week, it could have been Iyuk, one leak.

Last week, it was somebody else. The Mitchell piece of this is fascinating to me because I had him on a couple fantasy teams and he had an injury-plagued season. He ended up playing, I think, 11 of the 17. But if you actually look at his stats, and plus, I test back this up too,

he would break plays. He had 29 runs of 10 plus this year. And that's in two thirds of a season basically. There's a world where he's a first tier running back that we just don't consider just from that offense and his ability to basically run 45 degrees and make plays. He seems like he's relatively healthy too. I think they're expecting him to play.

And if you have him on top of the other two and Jimmy with a little confidence, I think they're going to be able to move the ball on Dallas. Yeah. They're really good this season running off tackle. Usually we're used to the Niners being really good at running between the tackles, right? They stretch you out, get you going horizontal,

and then they cut it up field. Mitchell's eyes aren't the best. He's not necessarily super well built for that. And the Niners get a ton of bare front, stuff that just dumbs up at that middle, get a lot of bodies from the tackles. So now they're just running all those pitches, and they're just getting to the boundary on you, and they're saying, Mitchell, find

sunlight and shoot, right? Because he's got gas. I mean, when he decides to go, he goes. And that ability of Kyle Shanahan to just say, oh, I'll just fundamentally change my running game, get Debo involved a little bit. They don't run wide zone the way they're used to, the way we're used to seeing a Shanahan offense do. They don't do that anymore.

They pitch all change-ups now. The fact that that still works as well as it does is absolutely obnoxious. Nobody else gets to do that but Kyle Shanahan and the way they run the football there. That brings me to the second storyline. Cause let's just stay on the, I'm not doing this in order.

Let's just stay on the Dallas thing. What's the Dallas panic move if they lose this game? Oh, because Dallas is always like big reaction moves, right? They're in the draft. They'll take the receiver. Even if they already have a receiver

in the first round. They'll fire their coach or fire a coordinator, bring somebody in. They'll do something because they do have like seven or eight blue chippers, which is usually a recipe to succeed.

And if you can't win at home, they're three-point favorites. They're barely getting any respect. And you can't get by the San Francisco team, but you have all this talent. What do you do? Do they flip coaches? Do they make a run at Harbaugh? I haven't been impressed with McCarthy, but what do you think it would be if they lost?

It's got to be McCarthy. That's what I think. Nobody else makes sense. You can't run from Dak. We need a fall guy. It can't be Dak. They just paid him. Quinn and Moore are both interviewing for head coach jobs. I don't know if you want to, you can't fire either one of those guys. Do you try to keep one of them in house?

Like, do you make the Calum Moore McCarthy switch? Because my, like, doing prep for that game, the big thing that I keep coming back to is like, all right, how did the Cowboys make the playoffs? Or how did the Cowboys make the Super Bowl? Excuse me. How did they go far? It's like, all right, keep doing what you're doing on offense. Keep doing what you're doing on offense. Keep doing what you're doing on defense

and just pray that at no point do timeouts or challenges become important. And that's such a scary thing to be like, all right, keep the new places where they are, do what you're doing and just hope the head coach doesn't get involved. But that's kind of what you're looking at in terms of their blueprint.

McCarthy feels like the biggest talent drain. He feels like the biggest point at which there could be an improvement, especially if it allows you to keep DQ in the building or keep Taylor Moore in the building because both those guys, like I said, are interviewing. So yeah, I would guess the panic move is McCarthy, but that's such a good way of framing it because it's really ripe for a Dallas panic move. They have everything correct. They just need a little bit more positive variance. They were going to be the one seed. They're the four seed. If they lose in round one, absolutely something ridiculous is happening.

And you didn't mention the one other thing that really worries me about taking them, because I'm really desperately trying to talk myself into Dallas minus three. I'm going to do the picks later in the pod, and I can't get there for a couple reasons. The kicker, you just know they're playing with three less points in this game than they should or four it could be three it could be it might be

seven but it would be between three and seven that they just lose in this game because of their kicker. Green Bay's got the same problem this year too. Crosby's been 100% so you have that plus you have the coach and you know he's going to screw up at least once in this game somehow

so if the Niners to me it like, as long as Jimmy G doesn't, like he had two picks in the Rams game, right? And that almost cost them. And you could argue they actually should have lost that game. It comes down to Debo somehow getting a 55-yard play when he's one guy in the building that you know shouldn't get the ball, he somehow gets it anyway. But he had the two picks.

If he doesn't have the two picks in this game, I think the Niners will win because of the points that they're going to get from the coach and the kicker on Dallas. I just don't trust that infrastructure. Yeah. No, I said it on the gambling show, right? Over, under, 1.5 picks for Jimmy. Over, they probably

lose. Under, we're chilling. We're going to be all right. That could be a good FanDuel same-game parlay, actually. If you like the Niners, go under on the Grapple Interceptions. Well, third fun storyline is tied into these other two. If you had to

say right now, I'll give you Green Bay on one side, I'll give you the winner of this game on the other side, who do you have to make the Super Bowl? Who would you go with? Still Green Bay. Yeah, I think Green Bay is comfortably the best team in the field. I do think it's a, you know, some of our parts, right?

It's greater than the whole sort of a defense. I think that applies. With that said, Jair Alexander's coming back. Darius Smith is practicing. Whitney Merciless might make it off IR. Like, we're getting folks in Green Bay, which is insane because they have the best regular season record. They're such a consistent team. They haven't really played a straight

bad game since week one. Their losses are a tight game against Minnesota, the Jordan Love game against Kansas City. They have not played a bad game in a while. The defense showed some cracks at the end of the season, giving up big points,

giving up scores, giving up long drives. That's absolutely there. But on the other side is Aaron Rodgers. On the other side is Devontae Adams. I don't think we appropriately acknowledge that there's no way to stop Rodgers and Adams. And it's because we use that phrase a lot. We say, oh, there's no way to stop myomes. There's nothing you can do about this. There's no recourse. With Adams and Rodgers, they move Adams all across the formation. He runs every route in each of their concepts. They put him in motion. And then that's all pre-snap. Post-snap, he and Rodgers just change things. They just read the same stuff and react in the same way. That level of chemistry is unmatched right now in the NFL. So there's

no way you just stop that. You don't take it away. One of them has to be off the field for the offense to not be working on all cylinders. And so, to me, the Packers remain extremely high floor. They remain a team that I would rely on. Absolutely, Niners have ways to beat them. Absolutely, Jack and that

offense have ways to beat them. But the Packers to me are just, they're too high floor. They're too solid in what they do well that I would go against them in any way. Their best case scenario would be Dallas winning this game because then they basically, they're going to play, I don't think Philly's going to be Tampa.

They're going to play, at that point the winner of Arizona and the Rams. And I like that match upup either way for Green Bay. I do not trust either one of those teams. If you can get one, great. Yeah. I hate that game too. Okay.

Next one. This will be a quick one and then we'll go to a break. The curse of Bo Jackson with the Bengals Raiders game. I didn't know this was a thing. I read a couple things about it. The Bengals injured Bo Jackson in 1991, and they have not won a playoff game since. Oh, I did not know this either.

The Bengals have not won a playoff game in 30 years. They injured one of the most fun football players of my lifetime. Not intentionally, but they pulled him down from behind and his hip broke, and that was it. And there's now a curse of Bo Jackson buzz I think the real curse of the Bengals is that they're cheap

and there was a story I read over the weekend about how they had no scouts at the Raiders-Chargers game which I thought was incredible because

there was a really good chance they they don't have scouts to send the reason they have no scouts is because they just got none in the building to deploy in any way, in any capacity. That has to factor into that Raiders game, right? And then you have, I don't know,

it's, when you have that kind of incompetence over the course of three decades, at some point, you have to look within. We have this in the NBA, too. At some point, you got to look at the owners. And there's other football teams, even the Giants, even the last six years. Like. At some point, you got to look at the owners. And there's other football teams, the Giants even the last six years. At some point, the owner is going to overpower everything.

And it does feel like that's happened a little bit with the Bengals. But there's weird history with this Bengals-Raiders game. It's just a weird game in general. You have the Raiders who basically won their Super Bowl on Sunday night. Five and a half days later, they have to play in cold weather in Cincinnati.

I don't trust Cincinnati. That matchup, though, with you have the fantastic pass rush against a really flimsy offensive line, it really scares me to take the Bengals and then be on the wrong side of that matchup when we've seen playoff games

single-handedly decided by that matchup. Yeah, the Bengals' pass protection was suspect, and then they lost Riley Reif. And since they've lost Riley Reif, it's been abysmal. And obviously, this Raiders' defense, when it works, it works with the defensive front.

They are feast and famine, Gus Bradley. Either we're going to dominate with four or we're going to lose. They're the lowest blitz rate team in the league. And I think 31st is double up on them or something. It's absurd how little they send pressure. So that's your defining matchup. What gives me pause there is just if there's a team that's built to just three-step and chuck,

just burrow, drops back, finds a one-on-one and sends it, it's Cincinnati. You put Dee Higgins on one side, Mark Chase on the other. You find where Casey Hayward isn't, and you say, all right, go, run. We're going to play some backyard football. And Max Crosby can't get there fast enough, right? If you're just quick throw and then throw in that nine ball. And that's what they boil down to against the Chiefs.

That's what they boil down to often when their backs are against the wall. Just find a vertical and take it. And it works. They get a lot of defensive pass interferences, right? They get a lot of positive regression. They got really, really good ball winners and that's kind of how they live with it. And I don't love that model, but

it can work against the Raiders. It's worked for a long time and I very much agree with the whole Bengals being cheap thing is annoying, but that's kind of why I want them to win because they were a little bit actual spenders this year. They went and got DJ Reader. They went and got Trey Henderson.

They brought in more than three free agents. Let's reward that with a playoff win. Maybe get this family moving a little bit and we'll get an actual competitive team here over the course of the next few years. Mixon had a lot of success against the Raiders in week 11, I think. It was like 30 for 128. Part of me wants to throw that game out because it was right as the Gruden stuff

was kind of hitting its fever pitch. Bengals were off the bye week too. Yeah, and it was a three-point game with like 12 minutes left. But Mixon was really good that game. And, you know, the T. Higgins chase part when you bet against the Bengals, because T. Higgins, I think Chase is like 16 for 25 yards or more,

20 yards or more, and Higgins was 10. And Higgins over and over again, that matchup scared me with the Pats because I think they could have taken out one. But then that other one that's just jumping up for stuff. I'm having a lot of trouble with that game because I do like the Raiders with Waller back. And Renfro has just gone to seven other levels. Jacobs look the best.

We've seen them last week in a while. I mean, they, the, the chargers knew they were running. I mean, the charges suck on Rendy, but Jacobs, I thought was shifty doing stuff, knocking people over. And then they really seem to like Carr. Uh, and in general, it's just kind of a fun then they really seem to like Carr. And in general, it's just kind of a fun story. I've never respected Carr. I've never been a huge fan. I've never underbent on him, but he's

cost me so much money this year. I'm like, hey, he has my begrudging respect. Derek Carr's future is so interesting. It's another thing that I have in terms of looking at my prep. Next year, he's on $19.7 million, which is absurdly cheap

for a franchise quarterback not on a rookie deal. That's like a fifth-year option number. It's all non-guaranteed, and he's not extended beyond it. So basically, in 2022, having Derek Carr on your team is one of the biggest competitive advantages of any individual contract,

any individual roster. Which is nuts because it's Derek Carr. But it legitimately is because of the value he brings at cost. Is the Raiders' next head coach coming in to win right away? Or is he not? Because if he is or if he isn't, it kind of dictates where you are with Derek Carr. There's no way he's playing on that contract for the Raiders next year. It's either he's on that contract somewhere else

or he's extended. Because there's no way if his agent's worth is salt, he plays on that money that hits free agency. That would be absurd. So Carr's winning these last four games, making it to the playoffs, winning a playoff game, that's like multi-million dollars worth of ramifications for him after his 30s.

It's a very big deal. Well, tied into that is the future of Pit Boss Rich and the future of Derek Carr, I think, is a fun storyline from that Raiders game. Because there's a world where they lose by 20 and you're like, oh, that was fun. And then Pit Boss Rich is gone and Derek Carr's in some trade or whatever.

I do think there's a Seahawks possibility with him. If they wanted to get into the Russell Wilson, if that becomes a thing where you could do Carr and your pick or Carr and multiple picks, something like that. And if you're the Seahawks, you're not unhappy getting Carr back, plus you could flip him. So who knows? I like the Saints for him a lot.

Saints make a ton of sense. Defense is ready right now. Get a receiver, get Derek Carr on that contract. That's money the Saints can actually take. The Saints have no room. Yeah. That makes sense to me. Let's take a break.

More storylines in a second. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular

cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. Here's another storyline. This is a great one. This might be my favorite one other than the Jimmy G. What if the Stafford trade is just remembered as an epic disaster? It's in play. They could lose to the Cards in round one, and that could become one of the worst NFL trades. Not Herschel Walker level, before your time. I know that one.

But that's the most famous bad trade, but there's been some other ones. But I think Jamal Adams is in the running for a worst trade of the last 10 years because two first round picks and can't stay in the field. The Stafford thing could be an epic disaster, especially because now the Rams fans would say, well, we were able to dump Goff's contract.

But it's unclear if you've even upgraded that much from Goff to Stafford. Stafford has eight turnovers the last four weeks and looks kind of shellacked, would be the word I use. He looks like he's had a long... He's like he's had like a long, he's like, like he's had a bender. He looks like a cop. Yeah. He's beleaguered. He looks like a cop in a buddy cop movie who really tied one on last night,

but now he has to solve the case. And he's just, I hated what I saw from him in that game. By the way, you shouldn't be that thrown off by the fact that your home fans were rooting for the other team. And it like, oh my God. Let's go to a silent count. It's like, all right, it's fucking football. That's what happens. But this Stafford into LA and replacement of Goff fundamentally changed what the Rams wanted to do on offense. All of a sudden, you're just living in Goff instead of under center. You're living in drop back instead of

play action. You're changing the core of what it is you're doing. What we would have described as the McVay offense during the Goff era was gone. They grafted some of it back in and they experimented and kind of moved some sliders around how much we want to go under center, yada, yada, yada. But in general, they changed how the offense looks.

So I'm very willing to say that this year was an experimentation year. It was a figure it out year. Let's make sure that 2022 is a really, really, really solid, right? We lost Robert Williams, you brought in Odell Beckham Jr., whatever. With that said, the proof of the pudding's in the eating. Like, this Goff-Stafford deal gets so much coverage

from so many different perspectives, and you got the nerds writing stuff, and you got, you know, film heads talking about how Stafford's arm is incredible, look at this throw he makes, whatever. If you can't win playoff games, then it doesn't count, right? You brought him in

to get beyond where you were with golf. And where you were with golf was a perennial playoff team. So if all you are with Stafford is, we make the playoffs. Sometimes we win a game. Trade didn't work. Trade wasn't worth it. The buck stops with playoff wins. So absolutely, yes, if they lose to the Cardinals, there's a flare of concern because the plan was to bring this guy in to push ourselves over the top and it didn't work. I'm very comfortable giving them a second year. I very much expect them to be better in their second year, win or lose this playoff game. But you do start to look at that panic button and say, man, is there just something about this top heavy roster

construction that no matter who our quarterback is, fundamentally won't work? We find that out over the next couple of years, but you do start to mull that question over in your mind. Well, I do think we gloss over the fact they lost Woods and Akers. And by we, I mean even me. You lose two of your three best skill guys. Now they're able to bring Beckham in,

who's been solid for them. But you lose two of those guys. Maybe you're not meant to make a pass around one anyway. Like you need luck with this stuff. If you're just losing dudes, I think acres, we had Sonya Michelle in the pats for four years or three years, whatever it was like, he's like a C minus. He's like a D plus he's okay. Runner. He's not going to fumble. You can't throw it to him at all. The other team knows when he's in there, there's going to be no screen passes his way. You don't have to worry about wheel routes, any of that stuff.

And he had 21 rushes in that Niners game. Because McVay over and over again was trying to establish, and you and Sharp talked about this on Wednesday's pod. At this point, it doesn't seem like McVay has even come to grips with what happened to the arc of this season

and what this team should do, which I guess is chuck it. But then you have a quarterback who's throwing it away all the time. I think the card, I don't like the cards at all, but I think that line should be three. I think you're getting a point and a half free with the cards. I don't get it. Very much. The two teams I trust the least in this playoff field are AFC or NFC

in terms of knowing what I'm going to get for them on a weekly basis are the Rams and the Cardinals. It's very nice that they play in the first round because then I don't have to worry about one of them moving forward. But for figuring out that game, it's alright. Where do the really knucklehead Stafford plays come? And when do the Cardinals

inexplicable defensive busts come? How many of them are there? In what leverage situations do they occur? And that's something you can't really prognosticate or figure out. So it's a very difficult game to handicap. Wait, I would throw in one more thing with that. Is Kyler going to do what it takes to win the game is a weird Cardinal subplot

where sometimes he just doesn't want to run. And it's like, ah, fine, I'll run for 13 and save this drive. When he's actually like, you can see it sometimes with him. When he's got that eye of the tiger to him and he's just like, alright, I'm going Michael Vick and Lambeau on you guys today.

They're kind of unstoppable. I would say the longer the season gets for Kyler, the less he likes running the football. There's a big conversation about quarterback bills and height and how slight a guy is and a lot of that is old football head bump gifts,

but in general, the later the season gets for Kyler, the less he likes running around and ducking under guys and making that pile on dives. And that's just kind of the nature of, of, of, of hits accumulating across the course of NFL season.

Yeah. I wouldn't want him in the, in the Buffalo game. Cause you get hit in that game, you're really feeling that. Let's talk about that game because that's one of my other fun storylines. So when you were a young child,

way back when, you're probably in elementary school or nursery school even, there's a team, the 2001 Patriots, that emerged from nowhere like a phoenix rising from the ashes. Drew Bledsoe gets hurt. Young whippersnapper,

by the way, Tom Brady comes in. Turn the season around. We somehow win the division. Have a home game against the Raiders. Snow game. Bad weather.

Last game. I'm familiar with it. Last game in the old stadium. Terrible weather. Weird. Wonky. End up pulling it out Last game in the old stadium. Terrible weather. Weird. Wonky. End up pulling it out. Brady has this great moment

and it becomes the snow game for the Pats fans. Everyone else calls it the tuck roll game. We call it the snow game. 20 years later, another first year QB. Terrible weather.

It's going to be two degrees. It's going to be freezing in Buffalo. And I don't know if the Pats beat the Raiders in 2002 with a normal weather game. I do think they needed some sort of element because the Raiders were great that year, and they ended up making the Super Bowl the next year.

I feel the same way about this Buffalo game. I think Buffalo's probably better than the Pats. I think the Pats have had multiple times to prove to us that they're a good team. And they're an okay team. But they can't get stops. I covered this on Sunday's

Pot of a Sal. Over and over again, these moments, these drives. It's like one stop and we got this. One pick and we got... And they just can't get it. And as you and Sharp

talked about on Wednesday, like, when Jones has to move the ball and make plays, it's just, it's tough. Like they're not an explosive team. They don't get big plays. But now it's two degrees.

It's freezing cold. Josh Allen's passes are going to feel like rocks. Special teams throw it out. Nobody's going to be able to make a field goal for more than 45 yards. The punts are going to go 30 yards. Every hit hurts. The game goes on.

It gets colder and colder and rougher and rougher. I do think they have a chance because of the weather. Is that just me talking myself into this because I'm a Pats fan? No, I think that with every degree that the temperature drops between now and kickoff,

in the forecast, whatever, that gives the Patriots another fighting shot. Gives them another chance. I have no interest in calling a Sean McDermott coach Bill's team soft, because they aren't. But they aren't an inherently big or physical team. When they go to run the football,

they're behind their five offensive linemen, they're getting a ball to Devin Singletary, who's not really like a hitter, and they're just trying to work in space. They're trying to find room. They're going to get Josh Allen running it a little bit, and certainly Allen's a really big guy. He're just trying to work in space. They're trying to find room. They're going to get Josh Allen running it a little bit. Certainly, Allen's a really big guy. He's not fun to tackle, but quarterbacks don't finish runs. You know what I mean? You don't really see that.

Sure, it'd be cool to watch Josh Allen try to punish your safety and everything, but he's not going to be coached to do that because he's the quarterback. We're not going to be risking him like that. This is not a team that is a physical punishing team on the offensive side of the ball. Defense side of the ball, they're a pretty small defensive line. They're a tough defensive line

and they're quick and they penetrate. And Tremaine Edmonds is a big guy and Avalon is very physical. But in general, it's just not a physical ball team going up against the Patriots, who are just huge, just slobber knockers of a team right now. And that's why Bill Belichick built him that way is because if you're going to zig, Bill's going to zag. If you're going to go light, you're going to go

spread. It's going to be all this nickel personnel and it's going to be all these spread to pass zig, Bill's going to zag. If you're going to go light and you're going to go spread, it's going to be all this nickel personnel and it's going to be all these spread to pass teams. Bill's going to put fullbacks and linebackers on the field and he's going to hit you in the teeth. He's going to test the mettle of your team. And when it gets colder, that matters more. When it gets freezing, when it gets sub-zero, that matters more. Those hits accumulate quicker.

It becomes less and less fun to get back out on the football field third quarter, fourth quarter. So if the Patriots can keep this thing close, they get two huge advantages. They get, one, Mack doesn't have to throw them back into the game, which is just not where they want to be as a team. Two, they continue to get possessions. They

continue to put physical plays on the field. If this is close, you can continue to run it, and you can continue to accumulate hits through the second quarter, through the third quarter, and then hopefully in the fourth quarter, Buffalo's going to want to play football anymore. And that's where you're going to have to win this game. The best thing as a Pats fan when I think about this game is Allen

was absolutely incredible the second time they played. It was one of the best quarterback performances we've had, and we have stats that can prove it, right? He was 300-plus, ran for 50 yards. Steve Young was the career leader with a game like that. And he did it like seven times or eight times. I think Allen's second. It's tougher to do that in zero degrees, especially you're the QB. Every hit hurts. And when you can't, when you can't feel your toes, because apparently that's the thing.

Yeah. So that's a big revolution from you that he has poor circulation. I will say this about the Pats. And I don't love, I wouldn't call their offense explosive, but they do have everybody together finally for a game, which has been a while, right? Aguilar had a concussion. Stevenson had a concussion earlier. Harris was hurt earlier.

The Henry John who's smithing, I don't know how many games they've played together, but it's probably been half the season. So now everybody's back. And whatever the potential of this weird offense is, that always seems to take a while to get going. And weirdly, it always seems like when they spread the field for Mack,

he actually makes good decisions. But for some reason, his first quarters have been bad all year. I like this weather for them. I think this is the gut. It's weird, but it's like, yeah, we have a two-degree weather offense, but I kind of feel like they do. They can pound multiple running backs.

And if this is like a 16-13, 14-10, 20 to 19 type game. I think that really suits them. I wouldn't have wanted to play the Bucks or the Bills in a dome or 50 degree weather or whatever, but I think this is better for them. Anyway, I predicted this on Sunday. I was going to talk myself into the Pats and I think I've done it.

Listen, I'm talking myself into the Eagles as we live and breathe, all right? That's what you do when your team's playing a wildcard weekend. So you start positive they're going to lose and by kickoff, you're positive they're going to lose and by kickoff you're positive they're going to win I have more cold weather stuff later I heard you and Sharp talking about this

Sharp had some good stats about 20 degrees and under for playoffs and it was like 10 and 7 with the overs and things like that I fundamentally think there's a huge difference between 20 degrees and 0 degrees and we've seen that it's just different it's a different vibe

the crowd's dead, crowd's done, and it just unfolds in a different way. And that's my old playoff guy experience. All right. So next storyline. This could be our last Ben game and it will be. Oh, yes. I would not only think so, I would certainly hope so. By the way, it should have been the case a year ago. I don't want to talk about him because he's done. It could be our last Brady game.

I haven't heard people talk about this, but it's not inconceivable to me that the Eagles beat the Bucs. Now, they're eight and a half point underdogs. They have a couple advantages and the Bucs aren't healthy. And a lot of people have talked about it for the last couple weeks. I didn't love the way they

looked in that Jets game. I thought it was alarming for a bunch of different reasons, but no Godwin, no Antonio Brown. The defense, guys are coming back. I don't think we're going to see Levante David. I just don't believe it. And people are like, oh, they've got everybody back.

First of all, the guys are coming back from injuries. They're not going to be a hundred percent. I don't love the coach. And if I'm the Eagles, this would have been the team I wanted to play. It's like we beat Brady before. We have that in the back of our heads. We can just try to win the trenches and make this the ugly kind of old school 20 to 17 type of game that Brady has lost in the past. That's what I would be holding on to if I was Ben Solak, Eagles fan. What are you holding on to? Right.

No, I'm holding on to like when we were talking Niners Packers, right? We were talking about, hey, the Niners might be able to just like sit on the ball, right? Like run that clock. That's what the Eagles can potentially do against the Bucs. Because defensively, the Eagles have no recourse for Tom Brady, right? Run that clock. That's what the Eagles can potentially do against the Bucs because defensively, the Eagles have no recourse for Tom Brady, right? This is a rush-for- play-zone team. Tom Brady

could beat them with his eyes closed. I really don't care who his receiver is. This is just a simple defense, plays a lot of zone, and it dares you to throw underneath quickly. I mean, Leonard Fournette's going to have like 11 targets, right? It's just the sort of game where Brady just dices you up. But if you can keep him on the sideline,

now we have a conversation. And the Bucs' run defense is not what it has been, right? Yes, the players are the same. Vita Bay has been there all season. They're getting Jason Pierre-Paul back. Levante David is a huge one. He's the most important player for the Bucs. He's worth like one and a half points on the spread.

No joke. Because Kevin Minter, his backup is really bad. And Devin White only works when Levante's next to him, kind of helping him out and kind of coloring in the lines for him. Because Devin White is a cannon, but somebody's got to point him. And without Levante on the field, no one really points him.

He's critical to that defense. Especially if Levante's not there, you can run it on this defense. Teams have run it with success. Quarterback run has been tough for Todd Bowles across the course of his career. You can get that done. It's just you have to score seven and you have to have long drives because the Eagles defense

has beat up on a lot of paper tigers over the last five, six weeks. The Eagles have not beaten a team with a winning record. Their defense has not had a good game against any team in the top half of the league in passing BV away, passing paper play. It is a we-stop-the-bad-offenses defense. Against a good offense that has no pitches

because they've got no talent in the back seven. So you've got to score seven. You've got to be able to keep Brady on the sideline. So if we can keep this thing close, I'll be hooting and hollering at halftime. I'm not sure that they can sustain that for four quarters, but that's got to be the model going in. Weird weather game, supposedly.

Yeah, cold, rainy, ugly. A little windy. Yeah, absolutely. Going to be a who wants it sort of a game. And yeah, you do wonder about the Bucs' Super Bowl hangover a little bit, kind of underestimating an Eagles team that they really beat up on early in the year. It could get weird.

It could get dicey. A little bit of a year from hell aspect to them. Injuries, dumb stuff. The Godwin thing was just a backbreaker. Also, we have some history with the minus eight and a half line over the years in these games

with the dog. It a half line over the years in these games with the dog. It's like just frisky enough that they can't push the line to 10. A lot of people end up teasing, which might include me this weekend with the Bucs. You can bring them under a field goal. You feel great about that.

Then all of a sudden, the Eagles have a 17-play drive. And you're like, oh my God. And Jalen Hurts is running around. So that's one gambling rule is stay away from the one pick play drive. Right. And you're like, oh my God. And Jalen Hurts is running around. But, so that's one gambling rule is stay away from the one pick that would screw over the,

or gravitate to the one pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts. I think a lot of people are going to have the bucks and a tease. Whoever they tease them with, it'll be whatever.

Another rule is don't ever talk yourself into a terrible QB ever for any reason. There have been games and halves when Jalen Hurts has looked positively terrible. Yep.

There's been other games when he's looked really good. And I think he is more all over the map than any quarterback I watched this year. I had them against the Giants that game, the first game, when the Giants just kept them in the pocket and he looked like he couldn't have even played in the SEC. Then you see other games where it's like,

oh, I get it. This RPO and oh, he's moving around. He's so dangerous. Who is Jalen Hurts to you? Or do we just game to game, it's going to change? Yeah, he's a polar developing quarterback. He knows where his bread is buttered. Eagles know where his bread is buttered.

Defense is know where his bread is buttered. And it's a matter is buttered. Defense knows where his bread is buttered. And it's a matter of how often can the offense get him in those spots, how well can the defense take away those spots, right? The Eagles don't throw in the middle of the field. They are the lowest team in the league in terms of routes breaking into the intermediate hole, in terms of targets to the intermediate hole. They don't do it, right?

So there's an area of the field that they are not comfortable with Jalen Hurts throwing to because of his processing, because of his height, because of his arm talent, and the combination of those three. So we are going to cut the field in half. We're going to run outbreakers. We're going to try to get outside the hashes, outside of the numbers. Right? So if you run zone, we're going to flood those zones.

Three receivers, four receivers, we're going to half the field. Hurts is going to roll out, sprint out. He's going to find space. If you can play us in man, which the Eagles have like no receivers. So yes, you should be able to. If you can play us in man, which the Eagles have no receivers, so yes, you should be able to. If you can play us in man, then all right. You go ahead and take those routes away. But all those players are going to be with their backs

to Jalen Hurts, and he's going to scramble. And no player in the league converts more runs to first downs than Jalen Hurts. Talking about Kyler Murray finishing runs. Jalen Hurts always knows where that marker is. And is always willing right at the right time, right at the right moment with explosiveness, with physicality,

whatever it is to go and get that mark. So the Eagles have this ability to say, whatever you throw at us, we have very basic ideas that we can just hammer and we can hopefully get that done. That Giants game you referred to, Giants played zone, but they were able to flood zones. They were able to take away all these crossing concepts, take away Goddard, and all of a sudden you got seven pairs of eyes on Jalen Hurts. He's got no recourse for that. He cannot move zone defenders. He can't throw against them, and he can't run against them.

So can Tampa do that against him? No, because I don't think that linebacking core, especially without Levanta, is a good linebacking core in zone. I mean, every time a good coordinator gets Devin White on his docket, hammer it, hammer it, hammer it, because he doesn't know what he's doing.

And it's been a couple years of him not knowing what he's doing in those contexts. So you can find the weak points in that chain for Tampa. That is the good news for Philly. The bad news is that that's middle of the field. That's hook zone. That is the good news for Philly. The bad news is that that's middle of the field. That's hook zone. That's intermediate hole. If you want to target those linebackers, that's middle of the field.

So, are we playing Jalen Hurts with water wings in the playoffs or not? We got to take the kid gloves off and tell him, you got to process. You got to throw layered throws. Zach Wilson, that game, was the best game Zach Wilson had throwing intermediate middle. That important area in that chain of offense. It was the best game he's had all year hitting those throws.

So we got to take the water wings off for Jalen Hurts and say, welcome to the playoffs. Go make an NFL throw. And if he can and continue to develop that arrow in his quiver, that's a starting NFL quarterback. But right now it's missing. And this is a game which would be really, really valuable for the Eagles to have it.

We don't see my guy Minshew in this game, do we? No, I don't believe so. But I appreciate the continued faith. The story of him going into Sirianni's office and just demanding the starting job while the Eagles were on a win streak with Jalen Hurts is tremendous content. Absolutely.

Put that guy in Pittsburgh. My last storyline, it's not even that fun, but just Mahomes, who just doesn't get discussed anymore. Put that guy in Pittsburgh. My last storyline, it's not even that fun, but just Mahomes, who just doesn't get discussed anymore. And I think a lot of people are weirdly disappointed in him, including myself, because there was a Curry feel to him in the past where the joy that he had was so much fun to watch on a football field. He just seemed like he was enjoying playing football as much as we were enjoying watching.

And I haven't seen that same kind of sparkle this year with him for whatever reason. Now, I think they're going to make the AFC, I think they're going to be the AFC representative. I feel more strongly about that than I do NFC picks. If he does that, if he just gets to the AFC, wins the, uh,

gets to the AFC title game, that's four years in a row. Gets the Superbowl. That's three Superbowls in a row. He's not 27 yet. There's a resume building here that is kind of sneaking. Cause it's been Rogers and Brady and all of these different pieces. And,

um, I don't know. I look at him and I think there's a world where five weeks from now, it's a Mahomes fest for a week. Us talking about, oh my God, this guy. I do think that's in play with him. Where that be, oh, this was the story all along and we didn't see it. Am I making sense or no?

No, I agree. My experience of Mahomes this year, because that absence of joy, that comparison to Curry is a really fun one, is that the way we understood Brady and his dominance for two decades fooled us. It tricked us into our expectations for Mahomes.

Brady was a robot. Brady, what you say, it fucked Brady. Sun's up in the east, down in the west. Brady's dominating. You know what I mean? It was the consistency. It was the reliability. It was the surgicalness of the way

he played that led us to believe Mahomes is never going to hiccup because that's what the crown quarterback does. That's what the elite of the elite does. He just doesn't hiccup. Mahomes hiccup. There was that stretch in the middle of the season where this offense was bad. It was not good.

The defense was carrying this team and it, it, it, it hit us weird. It was dissonant to us because we thought he'd be like Brady. However, then the, the Mahomes,

uh, you know, era, if we get like, you know, two decades of dominance, you know, hypothetically,

let's say we do, it will have more ups and downs. It will be more of a rollercoaster because he inherently plays a high-variance style of football. When you're out here just screwing around in the backyard, you're going to catch gold streaks. There's no way to avoid it. However, it's the peaks that are what will define

him. And if we want to talk about a peak, coming out from what was objectively a difficult season, what was a tough season for you offensively, a season which took a step back, and beating the AFC field three games in a row, making the Super Bowl again, this time with that healthy offensive line and potentially winning it,

that's a demonstration of what the peak can be. That's a demonstration of what Mahomes can threaten across the course of his entire career. That, hey, we figured out the Chiefs. We did. We found a good defensive formula to face them. It still exists. If that just doesn't matter because Mahomes has a good four weeks, nothing matters.

Nothing is real. Everybody pack your bags and go home because this is never going away. So that potential peak, if we get a Mahomes Super Bowl berth or a Super Bowl win, that'll be absolutely the defining characteristic of now the Mahomes era as opposed to that Brady era where it was just Eddie steady, constant dominance. Yeah, if he loses one of these next two games, it becomes a fun little stretch, but there's no era.

You know, it's like how the Warner Rams where it was like three years with those guys and then it was kind of, we just kind of moved on to the next thing. That's not going to happen

with Mahomes because he's so young. But I do think he does have a chance to establish an era. And, you know, I watched that whole Denver game because I had the Chiefs

in a parlay and I was sweating it out. And as it turns out, the Colts then kicked me right in the nuts the next day. Was stunned by McKinnon as the running back, how effective he was and how important he became in that game and how he was adding this dimension to their offense

that could catch green passes, could also get stuff through the middle. And every year they have an X-factor in the playoffs that emerges. Usually it's like a receiver. One year it was a running back. I wonder if he's the X-factor this year. What do you see from him? Yeah. So

firstly, he's wearing number one. And he's always had a great build. And so whenever I see him, I'm always like, who's this young dude? See one of the cool, young, rookie, undrafted creations, whatever. It's always Jerick frickin' McKinnon. That pisses me off. But with the Chiefs entering the playoffs, when you don't know something about their offense,

it feels like it's an advantage for Andy. They're getting Darryl Williams back. They expect to get him back. Clyde Iverson-Hilaire is also a possible back for the wildcard round. And then they have Jerick McKinnon. They also have the young Thor. There's four backs in Kansas City's backfield. You don't really know what the distribution

is. You don't know what to prep for. And they all bring a decent variety of skill sets. Edwards-Hilaire can run and catch. McKinnon can run and catch. Williams can run. He can catch. He can block, too. That's annoying. Because what it does is it opens up the script, right? It opens up the gadgets.

It opens up the, oh, all of a sudden they walked out and they have two of these guys on the field and we didn't even know one of them was going to be healthy for this game. And now we kind of don't know where we are. So whenever you get Reed into the playoffs, like I know PFF talks about this a lot, Reed's scheme usually to start the year is really like variable. It's really interesting. It's really unique.

And then throughout the regular season, it just becomes a little bit more steady, a little bit more predictable, a little bit more regular. And then they hit the playoffs, and all of a sudden, stuff just gets weird. Reed always holds his pitches until January. When you don't know what to expect from this backfield...

I think he's doing that with McKinnon. I actually think McKinnon's going to play a lot in the playoffs. I think he's been saving it. It feels very difficult to understand what the running game's going to be, think McKinnon's going to play a lot in the playoffs. It feels very difficult to understand what the running game's going to be, what the back distribution is going to be. And that's just another headache when you come to, as a defense coordinator, prepare for this defense or prepare for the offense. I love them big against the Steelers

and I'm going to try to figure out the right way to do that in million dollar picks because I just, the Steelers get them getting to 20 points is a miracle in general and especially in this game in Arrowhead. I have the,

I have first half money, first half spreads for the Chiefs is what I have because that's where you're relying on the script. First quarter, first half.

Yeah. Nobody's better at scripting. Any, any other fun storylines we missed before we go? What else do you have? Right. I had all the,

the quarterback dominoes, right? Aaron Rodgers, first course of the playoffs, what happens to him impacts what happens to Jimmy G and impacts what happens to Kirk have? Right. I had all the quarterback dominoes, right? Aaron Rodgers, cross the course of the playoffs, what happens to him, impacts what happens to Jimmy G and impacts what happens to Kirk Cousins. I have Jalen Hurts on that list as well

because I don't think the Eagles should be discounted from potentially moving and trying to get a veteran quarterback. Oh, that's a good one. Yeah. Could this be the last Jalen Hurts-Eagles game if like he sucks,

do they just have to move on? I don't know if they have to move on, but I will say that the Eagles view quarterback different than most teams in the league, where they'll make any acquisition at any time. And so if there's a line on Russ to Philly, yeah, they'll take that line and run it for what it's worth. Even if it's a good game, bad game.

Yeah, exactly. And so I can't remember so many quarterback relocation dominoes being like in the playoffs. Usually those are like teams that barely missed the playoffs. They died in the regular season this year. They're like all of them are in the playoffs, safer for Minnesota, sad for Minnesota. The other thing that really interests me is we saw the fourth down grades go way up, right?

Fourth one, fourth and one go rate, fourth and two go rate, fourth and three go rate are all at single season records. Two point conversion attempt rate, 11%, all at single season records. That's fun in the regular season, but we've all seen what happens to coaches. Take the points. Yeah, we've all seen what happens to coaches

who do that in the regular season. It doesn't work and they get lit up. That was regular season lit up. That was regular season criticism. When we get to playoff time, that's that money meat mouth right there. That's where you as a coach really have to believe in your convictions. If you're going for a fourth and two on your own 46. And I love the analytics. And I think you should go for that fourth year of the 46th but it feels different in a playoff atmosphere, man. It feels real different when it's win or go home.

So I'm very curious to see if there is a drop-off, if there's a dearth in this analytic-oriented decision-making process on these money downs when we get to playoff times. I'm curious if Coach's turtle

a little bit, if the buttholes get clenched a little bit, can't go through with it all the way. Cold weather changes that too, I think. Because most of the games we have, I think at least three are going to be in legitimate, either super cold, not great weather, whatever.

Who's your favorite underdog before we go? If you had to go money line underdog on anybody. I think it's still the Niners, which I know, right? It's getting hammered by the public and that's always worrisome. But when I look at the matchup for a Cowboys run defense,

that's bottom 10 in the league in EPA for play. They play tons of man coverage, which means when you're chasing those crossers, you're chasing that motion, right? If you're a false step behind on Debo, ain't catching Debo.

You know what I mean? You get to play zone against all that and you can make those tackles and limit that yak. This is a crossing, horizontal, yak-oriented offense. When you're just chasing that all over the field, the explosive play is just waiting. So the Niners are in a situation to be exactly what they want to be on offense.

Run, run, run, run, run, crosser. Run, run, run, run, run, crosser. And that's really scary. Because if the Cowboys don't get picks, defense doesn't really hold up against the Niners. So again, it's how much trust you put in Jimmy to protect the football. If you put enough into it, Niners' money line makes a lot of sense.

All right. If you want to read Ben, you can go to TheRinger.com. If you want to hear his round one picks, you can listen to our Friday Ringer NFL show, and then you can hear him and Sharp on Wednesday on the Ringer gambling show. Good to see you. Good luck with the Eagles

and just the state of psychology of Philly fans in general between the Eagles and Ben Simmons. I think it's been a rough winter. I would trade a Eagles playoff loss for a Ben Simmons trade in a heartbeat. I am willing to pay the price. All right. Good to see you.

Sweet. Appreciate it, Bill. All right. Good to see you. Sweet. Appreciate it, Bill. All right. Peter Schrager is here from Good Morning Football and from Fox. We got killed last week. Don't want to talk about it.

We're moving on. Moving on. We lost some money. We are down $336,000 for the season. But playoffs is when we shine. That's been our history. I've spent more time

over the last two days. I'm COVID free. I actually, I feel bad for Wentz because I was definitely off last week. Is there a chance with Wentz, maybe the COVID, he was in a little bit of a fog? Because I know I was in a fog last week. Could that explain losing to the Jaguars? Wentz should double down on that theory. That was the COVID. It was the COVID. I love that you would make that analogy. On our show, we were talking about how Mike Tomlin said he fell asleep during the second half of Raiders Chargers. And I was like, imagine you're the coach and you fall asleep. And then Kyle Brandt interrupts me and is like, I fell asleep during the Minneapolis

miracle. And I'm like, it's kind of not the same thing, dude. He's the coach of this playoff team. Yeah. We talked about fun storylines with Zolak, with Solak. And one of them, we just want, let's talk about Jimmy G cause I know you have some inside info on that. The question we asked in the last segment was what if he was their savior all along and what did the Niners do if

they go on a run with Jimmy G here? What does that mean? Big picture there, the consensus darling of if there's a Cinderella sleeper team that everybody has, it seems to be the Niners. What happens if that plays out that way? What do they do? There's still so much love in that building from the front office to the coaching staff that for the most part, with the exceptions of maybe Salah not being there and Michael Flohr not being there, it's all the same guys who were there on the Super Bowl run. And when Jimmy led them in New Orleans and hit Kittle for the big pass at the end of the 2019 season and then went into Seattle and they beat the Seahawks to clinch the NFC West. There's a lot of love for Jimmy in that building. So when this trade was made, everyone I spoke with at the 49ers was like,

don't take it for granted that Trey Lance is going to play year one. And I was like, well, you just traded all those first round picks and Jimmy wasn't even available last year. And for the second year at a three, he was injured. And it was like, when Jimmy's healthy, Jimmy can play quarterback in this league. And I'm like, yeah, but you know, when is Jimmy going to have to, the drive he had Sunday night in LA down 24, 17 with everything up against them to tie that game. There's a lot of people in that building who are beating their chest and being like, yep, that's the Jimmy that we've always known is there. If he just gets healthy and is just available to do it. He was tough.

It's a guy Bill Belichick believed in. I think a lot of people have. And the only thing with Jimmy has been availability. It's never been about leadership. It's never been about likability. It's only been about availability. So the way his contract is written and everyone has him going to be the next Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Miami Dolphins quarterback. If they're willing to eat two years of the rookie contract of Trey Lance, like the Packers are doing, the contract is not saddling them in any crazy way to pay Jimmy less than market value for one more year next year.

And I don't know if it's a, it only, that only happens if he goes on this crazy run. I'll just tell you that when they drafted Trey Lance, a lot of people in that building went out of their way to tell me, I don't think Lance is the guy year one. This isn't Justin Fields and this isn't Mac Jones. Like Jimmy can still be our quarterback. And oh yeah, by the way, he might be our quarterback for year two too. Well, it's the most fun game to talk about. We have Dallas' first DVOA, San Francisco's sixth. Both of them, between the two of them,

there's like 15 blue chippers in this game. So cool. I pose to Solak, could you make a case the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl? I think either of these teams would be the big threat for Green Bay. Both of these teams can absolutely beat Green Bay. I think San Francisco is better equipped to go into Lambeau

and beat Green Bay. Here's the catch. Everyone loves San Francisco this week. Yes, right. Fando told me there's 65% of the bets on San Francisco right now. They've been everybody's sleeper Francisco this week. That's right. And Fando told me there's 65% of the bets on San Francisco right now. They've been everybody's sleeper pick all week. They're coming off a big win.

There's some red flags here. In the playoff, in the playoff manifesto, rule number five, beware that everybody believes in this team. And then conversely, rule number 13, before you wager on a team that's a bunch of coach possibilities, including anyone named Mike.

I think Mike McCarthy, even though he's won a Super Bowl, has to be on that list. I'm so scared to bet on Mike McCarthy and Greg Zerline. Is this an overthink? Is it just don't worry about what the rest of America is doing

if they're trying to mush the Niners and just go with your gut? Or is there some nobody believes in us potential with Dallas here where they're the favorites at home and nobody's picking them? Cowboys have not had that signature win this season. And when we did this whole thing with Arizona going into Dallas, Arizona found a way. And on Thanksgiving, don't forget, Bill, we put a lot of eggs in the Cowboys basket and we blame Sean Hockley. And we said the penalties were a mess. Derek Carr and Deshaun Jackson sliced and diced the Dan Quinn defense that day. And there were a lot of pass interference calls

made. There were also a lot of deep passes made. It's hard for me to rally around Dallas and say, A, it's a hard place to win in the playoffs because whether it was the Giants, you know, going in there a bunch of years back with Eli and finding a way to win in that game, or it was as easy as Aaron Rodgers a couple of years ago when they were the number one seed and he finds Jared Cook on the sidelines.

Like, Cowboys are not invincible in that building by any means. They haven't been this season and they haven't been very good against the 10-win teams this year. So the Cowboys have gotten fat on wins over the Falcons and wins over the NFC East. And I'm not saying that you can only play the teams you play, but gosh, did San Francisco look ready to go beat some ass on Sunday?

And I don't know where that version of the Cowboys lies, where I'm saying, yeah, but the Cowboys looked really good in week X, and that's why I'm taking them. I don't think it's crazy at all to be having all the heat on San Francisco right now who looks to be getting healthier with Trent Williams back in the lineup. That's the expectation. That's the best tackle in the sport.

That's huge. Yeah, you would think this was the team Dallas didn't want, especially because the one team that has the offensive line that can potentially block their guys, right? Yeah. Three game breakers. I'm including Mitchell because I think he's scary when he's out there. And then Jimmy coming off like one of the best weeks of his professional career.

I'm leaning toward the Niners. We're going to do million-dollar picks in a second. I want to give you some stats. Okay. Wildcard weekend. Road teams last four years. And this ties into the Niners game. Road teams last four years. 14-4 straight up.

No. 15-3 against the spread. Really? Yeah. Last year, you forget. We rode all the road teams last year when we had our big run last year. I think five of them won outright on the road. Home favorites. seven plus since 2005, 13-2, 11-5 against the spread. Just keep that in mind for the Chiefs.

Usually in round one when there's a big favorite, you kind of want to gravitate toward the big favorite. The first- time coaches number, and we have a couple of them in this wildcard weekend, eight and one straight up the last three years. So the whole thing about,

oh, you need coaching experience. Not really. Can you guess who the one coach was who lost? No, I can't think offhand. Who was it? The immortal Matt Nagy. Okay.

Yeah. He was our one outlier. That was a double doink. Cody Parkey. I remember it well. Yeah. And then this is from BetLabs. This is alarming.

BetLabs. It's part of Action Network. Since 2002, quarterbacks in their first playoff start, 50 game sample size, 17 and 33 straight up, 16, 33 and one against the spread. We have five first playoff start guys. Mack, Hertz, Burrow, Kyler, Carr.

Now two of them are playing each other. So somebody's got to win. But out of all those stats, the road team's won. I can't even really fully come up with an explanation for it. We've always talked about our home field advantage seems to be dying really for the last 10, 12 years. It's colder, harder for fans to make noise. People are better with silent counts and the technology is better.

But 14-4 straight up seems absurd. That's like arbitrage as far as like, that's a piece of news I would not have ever thought. And I think most bettors probably aren't thinking or knowing that stat. That is an amazing number, 14 and four. Well, I bring it up because right now, unless you're able to throw your body in front of it, I think I like five of the six roads teams with the points.

Really? Okay, let's talk. Yeah. So we can start Raiders Bengals. Yeah. The Raiders, a team that has wounded my wallet and wounded million-dollar picks like nobody else this season. They have hurt our feelings and ripped our guts out

over and over and over again to the point that I might just say uncle and take them in round one. It's one of the many reasons I like them. Now the line's four and a half. I just, a lot of people like the Raiders as a lavender dog. The line's four and a half. I just think the line's too high. I agree. I think this is a three-point line. It feels like a field goal game to me. And I feel like I'm getting a point out. Now, we were talking about it this week and you raised the key salient point. Well, do your Sunday night thing.

Yeah. I mean, look, this is... Sunday night, they play the Chargers. They're up 15 points. Chargers come all the way back. They take not only 60 minutes to finish this game, 70 minutes, including all those fourth downs, a 19-pass drive by Herbert to break their heart,

send them to overtime. The game ends. They somehow win. It's one in the morning on the East Coast. There's confetti involved, and it's like, that was on Sunday night. They're now playing Saturday, six days later, and it's, I don't know how much.

Five and a half days later. Five and a half days. Cold weather, you're in Cincinnati, staying at the Cincinnati Hilton, 20 degrees outside. Carpeting in the hotel is just not the same. I'm looking at this thing, and it's an early Saturday game.

Cincinnati's fans have not been at a home playoff game since I think the Antonio Brown-Vontaze-Berfic game. They're going to be nuts. They're so into this team. Was Sunday the Raiders Super Bowl? And that's going to be insulting to all the Raiders players and everything. But you know what I mean, where it's like, that was an awesome ride. Passaccia carried off like a king.

And Derek Carr, you finally got to the playoffs. All right, take a deep breath. That was a cool year. That's my only fear. Or do they have it in them again to say, no, no, that was just the start. We got to go on this run and we got to keep this going. And I think a lot of that's psychological and a lot of that is just physical. We are exhausted. I mean, Max Crosby put on such a show on Sunday, just the dominating Storm Norton. But every 19 passing plays on that final drive of regulation, that not only-

Crammed into like, what, 15 minutes of real time? Real time, three minutes on the clock. And he's going and doing the pass rush 19 different times. All those guys, I know, I spoke with some of the Raiders coaches on Monday morning and they're just like, they loved it. They were so happy, but they were like, we are so exhausted right now. So exhausted. So you go to the gambling manifesto. Rule number one is beware of the looked a little too good the previous round team. We didn't have a previous round, but we kind of did because that was a playoff game. Did they look good though? I don't know. They were up 15 and they gave a lead away. The thing is two ridiculous pass

interferences. And then over and over again, the Chargers were completing fourth and tens against them. I've never seen anything like it. A fourth and 21. It was amazing. And you could argue like the Chargers, they have first down. It's, what are they?

First down from like the 18 or 19. And then they kind of fucked up that drive and they had to settle for the field goal. But there was a moment in that game where I would have bet anything the Chargers were going to win. It seemed like they were running in for a touchdown. The Raiders had been on the field for so long.

So you have that one. You have the beware of the everybody believes in us rule, which is rule number five. You have rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win, which I think they do. Rule number seven,

beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. I think the Raiders are, it's weird to say this, but they're a dome team. They're in fucking Las Vegas. So you got to have that. And then rule number 12,

beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend's victory like it just won the Super Bowl. It's right there. It's right there. It's right there. It's right there. That's an issue.

On the flip side, neither of these teams are very good. No. DVOA, Cincy's 17 and Vegas is 21. So they're not even the top half of the league, statistically. There's some alarming

Cincy pass block stats. You have, they have that win rate, the group win rate stat, which I kind of like. They're tied for 30th. So really, you could say they were 31st.

They had 49% win rate, their offensive line. Then they're, the Cincy pass rush, 36% win rate, 25th in the NFL. They're 24th and past DVOA. And then you go like the Raiders. We saw their D-line last week.

Awesome. They come and get it. They're losing one guy. Phylon is out. And he was really good inside. That's a tough one. But Ngakwe and Crosby could absolutely abuse Isaiah Prince and Jonah Williams this weekend. That's true. And those guys, Ngakwe played with the Ravens for a year and was in Jacksonville. And then you, of course, have Crosby, who's maybe my favorite player in the NFL and also

went to Eastern Michigan. So don't tell me that cold weather is going to affect his game. That guy's coming. His fourth quarter was one of the greatest fourth quarters I've seen from a defensive player in a long time. They say, they said he had like eight pressures in the fourth quarter. It's insane. And he won some penalties. He won defensive player of the week and they were selling a Storm Norton NFT

the next day online. I don't even know what those are, but like they were selling it. And the joke was like, nah, come on. You can't, that's not, that's not real because of what Crosby had just done to Storm Norton, the offensive lineman. My fear with the Bengals,

I hate taking the team where you could actually see the road map of their offensive line just getting demolished. And then on the flip side, them not really being able to pressure Carr that much. And now that Waller's back and Solak and Sharp did a good job of breaking this down

on the podcast yesterday on the Game Week show. Like, Waller was nine targets, two catches, but he had Derwin James on him, which is the worst possible

guy to cover. The Bengals don't have Derwin James. They were double teaming him too. Yeah. They were double teaming Waller. They tried to take him out and they did. But now you have Waller

and Renfro and you have Jacobs who's playing well and I actually think the Raiders are a little like the Pats because now that Ruggs is gone, they're not going to make

like the big giant plays. But they can move the ball down the field and they do have guys over and over again on third down that seem like they can make plays. So I'm not that worried about them on the road. The penalties worry me. They were near the top. They have a tendency of having bad penalties

at the first time. On the flip side, 4-0 in overtime, 2-1 in last second games. So the skeptics would say, that's garbage. The next year, they could have been 1-6 and they're not in the playoffs.

But there was a resilience with them that we felt firsthand because we watched them kick us in the nuts three different times a million dollar picks. Time and time again. Thanksgiving,

they crushed us. And then the game against Denver, they found a way. They find a way. And he finds a way. Time and time again. Thanksgiving, they crushed us and then the game against Denver, they found a way. They find a way and he finds a way. They find a way. Carr's good, man. So, to me,

it's like Solak laid out a good case for they're going to rush for, they'll have people in the zone, but that's actually good for the Bengals

because Burrow gets rid of the ball quick. They have two receivers who can make plays. Then you flip around the Raiders. They always seem to get weird pass interference help and these things. But on the other hand,

sometimes you're just that team. Sometimes shit just goes your way. You have the seasons. Brady's first Pats team was like that. The whole year, things just kind of went our way and all the way through the tuck roll, which that was just the kind of season it was where the Rams Super Bowl, J.R. Redman gets tackled. And if they say he's in

bounds, that drive dies, but they say he got out of bounds. Clock stops. Sometimes you just have it. So I wonder, can the Raiders win? The answer is yes. I'm taking the points in this because I think either way, when in doubt, take the points. I think they could in this because I think either way, when in doubt, take the points. I think they could absolutely win. I think they can hang tough. There's cheap touchdown potential at the end. And I think they can win the trenches.

So grabbing the four and a half, I think is the move. Any last things you want to talk me out of? The piece here about the Bengals would be psychologically, they took all last week off. Chase might have suited up, but for the most part, Burrow didn't play. He didn't even make the trip, the whole thing. They've been preparing for this game.

They get this draw where here come the Raiders. Is there a piece of you that's like, wow, Joe Burrow is an absolute killer, and this is the future of the league, and this is his Patrick Mahomes run, and all this? Or is the other side of it. It's a cool story. And, you know, next year, there'll be the hot team in the AFC. This doesn't feel necessarily like this is their year.

Maybe next year is. And meanwhile, the Raiders are still playing with desperation. Basaccia probably still coaching for his job. A lot of these players, the coaching staff, if Basaccia loses his job, they're probably all being blown out

because that's just how this works. New coaches hire new staffs. And a lot of these players, they might've been Gruden guys. And whoever comes in next might not be a Gruden guy. Is there a feeling of desperation and this has to be our year? This is it for the Raiders. Whereas the Bengals, nice season. Here we did. We got to play. Good, cool to win a division crown. We're the new kids on the block. And that was nice. That was another possible gambling manifesto rule that I'm penciling in. It's not in pen, but don't go against pit boss rich. Maybe that's just a rule. Maybe just don't bet against a guy who literally looks like a Vegas pit boss. If he loses the game, he has to immediately walk into one of those casinos, hand in an application, and then go figure things out

from there as a pit boss. And I don't think he wants to be a pit boss. Cincy's last few. They get killed by the Chargers. I would love to see Rich be a pit boss. If that's his fallback, if this doesn't work out. He's from Yonkers, New York. I love that. He's from Yonkers.

Rich is our guy. That's one of the reasons I want to bet on him. He's our guy.kers. Like, the rich is our guy. I do. That's why, one of the reasons I want to bet on him. He's our guy. San Francisco lost OT. This is Cincy. Week 15, barely beat Denver. Week 16, they kill Baltimore. Week 17, really impressive winning

against Kansas City. And then last week, didn't matter to them. So the case of taking them is they found out who they were in that KC game. The case against taking them is that was just a really good matchup for them with how KC was and KC's missed a couple guys.

And they just had trouble covering their receivers. And the Raiders just went through this with Herbert and a team that had good receivers. And for the most part, was able to hang on. It took a series of fourth and tens just to take it to OT. They had four different fourth down conversions on that final drive and they had 19 plays and they were all passes. It was the craziest drive ever. All right. So we're going to pencil in the Raiders. There's a couple of fun side bets with them.

Raiders plus 188 to win with the under of 48 and a half is plus 383. So the case would be, this isn't like a necessarily explosive team. Even last week, they got to 29 points. But what happened? Like one was two of the dumbest pass interference calls ever. But that's the thing. Carr is like watching the... He's the dad playing golf

who hits the drive into the woods and it bounces out right in the fairway. He's been that guy all year. I don't want to go against that. You could also do alternate line on FanDuel with the under. You could take it to 53.5. Raiders plus 188.

And that, as a parlay, is plus 282. 53.5 is a lot of points. That's like, even 27, 24, 28, 24, whatever, that doesn't get us to 53 and a half. So I'm marking those down

just to think about. Next game. Saturday night. Bill's Patriots. We'll talk about it. We're going to take a break and we're going to talk about it. Okay, Bill's Patriots.

We have the number two DVOA team against the number four DVOA team. We have two teams that have played twice already. We have Buffalo, the favorite, who's played the easiest schedule in the league. We have a Pats team that has not proven

they can win a normal game against a really good team. The question, Peter Schrager, is this a normal game? I'm going to say it's not. Solak and I talked about the cold weather stuff before you came on, and we were talking about the difference between when it's cold and when it's fucking freezing cold. So these are the coldest playoff games

of the last 40 years. I was at one of them. I was at Viking Seahawks a couple years ago. Oh, so you know. You can't move. Yeah. Final score, 10-9. So anyway, going back 40 years.

Now, Warren Sharpe gets mad at this because he says, you can't compare football from before 2008 to anything now. And it's like, all right, fine. I'll do respect to Warren Sharp. I disagree. 1981, Raiders 14,

Browns 12. 1982, Bengals 27, Chargers You have a Raiders-Browns point? Yeah, Brian Seip, that was Red Rifle 88. That was that 14-12. Crazy game. 82, Bengals 27, Chargers 7. This one hurt because I like that Chargers team.

AFC Championship. Yeah. The week after Kellen Winslow gets carried off, they go into that frigid Cincinnati and they throw about four interceptions. 96. Colts 17, Chiefs 7. 2004. Pat 17, Titans 14. Hold that because I want to talk about that in a second.

I remember that. 2008, your Giants, 23-20 over the Packers and Lambeau and OT. Corey Webster picks them off and then bring out Lawrence Tynes. I know it. That's the only time we've gone over 35 points with any of these games. And then finally, 2016, Seahawks 10, Vikings 9, remembered as the Blair Walsh game. Blair Walsh.

The recurring theme and Pat's Titans is a really fun one. Obviously I lived that one. That was my team. It was the scariest game of that whole season. Saturday night game. Which is funny because we beat the Panthers in a game that they tied with two minutes left. The Titans to me

was still scarier. There's some good. You can go find Berman. You can go on YouTube and you can watch the five minute Berman doing the recap of this game and calling Christian Fourier, Christian euphoria. Um, they have the whole thing. There's points early and then the game dies. It's like 14, seven early in the second quarter. It's so fucking cold. The crowd's dead. And I remember there was a point in that game where I started to get really worried because there's no noise. Everyone is so bundled up. And you must have seen this when you went to the 2016 game. Everyone's wearing thick jackets. They're wearing mittens.

They're wearing the hats with the cover over their face. So it's like playing a game in this sound vacuum. So you have that. It's also fucking freezing. And once you're out there two hours, even if you're the sideline reporter. You're numb. You're dying. So now you have Josh Allen throwing 110 mile an hour passes

on third and three. And maybe you're not catching those when it's 10 o'clock at night and it's minus one and there's a wind chill. And I just think this is going to be a low-scoring, ugly game because that's the history of this. Pat's Titans came down to his fourth and three with like five minutes left. And we're

on like their 40. And Belichick went for it. I don't even know this play. Go on. I love this. And it was like, why aren't we punting? Just pin him down. And it's like, oh my God, we're going for it on fourth and three. Brady gets it. Yeah.

Sets up this Vinatere. I think it was a 46 yarder. In my mind, I know this is crazy. I think it's the greatest kick he ever made. He knocks him. The football's a rock. You can see when he kicks it, it actually just starts descending.

Like it's like a dead bird that just got shot and barely makes it over. We go up three. They come back down. They get a big play to Bennett to keep the drive line. McNair and Bennett. Oh, were they good? Drew Bennett was killing us.

Drew Bennett, 83. So good. Fourth down and long. Chucks it down to Bennett. Bennett jumps up, somehow pushes off, gets open, hits his hands and falls off. And if it's not zero degrees, he catches it. My point is, I think it's really hard to score he catches it. My point is it's, I think

it's really hard to score and move the ball and just play well when it gets this cold. So your take, my take is I agree a hundred percent that it will be a low scoring game. I don't think this is 41, nothing. I certainly don't think this is a shootout by any means. My take is that Buffalo is as equipped for this as New England is. And Josh Allen might be far more equipped for this than McCorkle Jones. That's my take. I think it's a fair take. It's one of those games.

If you take the Pats and they're down 10, nothing in the first half, you're almost right. You're almost, you're done, which they've been in that scenario a bunch of times against the Colts, against the Cowboys, and they can't come back. Now, on the flip side,

Josh has this amazing game the second time they play. One of the best games in a while. Can you have a game like that when the weather is like this? Do you want to take those hits? Do you want to rush the ball 12 times when it's zero degrees outside

and the field is an ice skating rink, basically, with the surface and every hit just hurts. Do you want him running the ball like that? I don't think you do. You're not with me? You're not playing for anything but today though. That's the way I see it. McDermott's not thinking about, well, if Josh gets hurt this game, what are we going to do next? I think this is their Super Bowl in a lot of ways in that the Patriots have owned this division, Belichick has owned McDermott, and in this building, the three-pass attempt game. And I would point to, and look, I say it because it's Buffalo's running game, and I know we roll our eyes, but the last few weeks, Devin Singletary has got it going on. And I know it's not something you're scared of. You don't lose sleep of it.

Devin Singletary is not going to go in and rush for 200 yards, but their running game has improved since the second half of that Buccaneers game. And that's been the untold story that all of a sudden they found the run game and Dable has been adaptable and said, we need a run game to win these games. I don't think they're the same team that was playing at home on Monday night in week 13. I think they've changed. For the Pats, Barmore probably not playing. Probably not. Looks hurt.

Which is a huge loss for the Pats. It's not like their defensive line was dominating people. Anyway, it was good. And he was their best young guy on the D-line. The Duggar is questionable. And Duggar is a huge guy for the Pats. He's been awesome. He was awesome this season.

And the combo of him with McCourty and Phillips gives them so much flexibility and so many different looks they can have. He's their most physical guy. You could put Jackson on digs and let those guys deal with the rest. But without Duggar, everyone needs to kind of shade around

and say, okay, well, what about this? What about Gabriel Davis? What about this? And it's a whole different deal. You mentioned McCorkle Jones. Yeah. and it's a whole different deal. You mentioned McCorkle Jones. We haven't seen him do it yet. A situation like this, I don't think they can win unless he has a good game

because they're just going to stack the line. It's going to be a Mac Jones come and beat us game. The plus side for him is he has everybody back. Yeah. He has Aguilar that you at least have to worry about that he's going to run a straight line faster than the guy who's covering him. You have Bourne. You have

you have little Nikhil Harry. I'm kidding. You have the two tight ends including his security black and Henry. And you have both running backs. So they're kind of built for a game like this. We just haven't actually seen them play the game that we wanted to see from them.

I haven't seen it yet. It's a different game than the first Buffalo in Buffalo. That one was all wind. And it was like, that's the, but this is just going to be really, really cold. And I have to think Josh Allen now, I know they practice in a bubble and the whole thing. Like I have to assume he's more equipped for this living there for three years during January is doing playoff games at home last

year against the Ravens where they found a way. Like I feel like Josh Allen's walking into this thing with a championship belt and Mac Jones, great stuff in college in those games and great stuff throughout the early part of the season. He's not exactly walking into this game looking like the best version of himself. And I don't think the elements do him any favors. So the only gambling manifesto rule for this one is basically all quarterback related. Just keep looking at the quarterbacks. What's the deal with the quarterbacks? Rule number 11,

don't talk yourself into a terrible quarterback ever in front of you. Mac's not terrible. Rule number 15, don't try to be a hero. Just try to win money. Rule number 16, take one last look

at the quarterbacks. And then, if you're betting on an underdog, you better think they can win Matt going into Buffalo in zero degree weather as much as I think it helps the Pats

with a chance to win the game I just haven't seen him a year from now sure but over and over again this team, the Dallas game the Saints game Tampa game the game last week, the second Buffalo game.

Over and over again, they haven't been able to get the stop when they needed it. And Mack has had trouble playing four good quarters. He's played four good quarters against bad teams, but against good teams, it's either a slow start or it's one. I think it's a lot to ask. And I feel like if I'm not a Pats fan, there's no way I'm taking them to this game. No, if you're not a Pats fan, you're not even in this conversation, but you are a Pats fan. And with that, that only becomes a little bias

and that's fine. But it also becomes a lot of history of trusting in Belichick that maybe the non-Pats fan doesn't believe in. That's the X factor. Does Belichick have the ultimate game plan where he can protect Mac and he can go into the Buffalo where quite frankly, Sean McDermott's won a lot of games, hasn't won a lot of big games against Bill Belichick. And it's like, is that the X factor where Belichick has this master plan? And this is why he's the greatest coach to ever coach the game. And if it is, this has got to be his masterpiece. Well, we're not taking the Bills, some million dollar picks, just so you know. But we're also not putting a lot on the Pats because- Are you putting something on the Pats?

Are we putting something on the Pats? Just a smidge. We're betting on every game. We bet on every game last year. I know. We have to do it. We better bet on the games. But listen, if we took Bills minus four

and the Pats came out with the double-barreled running thing and they're up 10-0, I'd be so mad. I can't risk it. I respect that. Eagles-Bucks. Eagles are eight-and-a-half-point underdogs to the Bucks. This is not the same Bucks team as a year ago.

No, it's not. They've had a lot more drama. The weather's going to be weird. We don't think Levante Davis is going to be back. Probably not, right? Well, Levante had this injury they missed and they activated him, so there's excitement. He practiced on... I mean, it would be one of the really impressive deals

if David could play in this game. And right now, just knowing that injury, I would be surprised if he suits up on Sunday. And if he plays, he's 50%, 60%. Secondary, not awesome. Not awesome. You know, it's bad when you lose Richard Sherman and it's like, oh no, we've lost Richard Sherman.

It matters. And then you have this weird Eagles team that might be able to run the ball and be able to at least block them. Who knows on defense, they're going to rush Brady. We talked about it with Solak. I don't like taking underdogs unless I think they have a chance to win. It's not inconceivable to

me that the Eagles could run the ball down Tampa's throats and get a couple weird Brady plays and all of a sudden people are tweeting about, oh my God, Brady and the Eagles, here we go again. And that's real. I just don't trust Jalen Hurts and really don't want to bet on him. What are your thoughts? Tampa does not have the same firepower without Godwin. They don't have the same firepower

without Antonio Brown. They are getting Fournette back. And here's the bottom line. Philly has won a lot of football games over the last two months. They have not won any games against winning record teams, except for I think one at the time where that team was a winning record. Philly hasn't beaten anybody, but you can't control who you play. One o'clock game, Brady's four and one, a game's being played at one o'clock. It's going to be raining. I think you'll probably see a lot of Philly Eagle fans there. It's a nice trip to take on a Sunday in January and Eagles fans travel well. I don't see them losing. I don't see Tampa losing to the Eagles. I just don't, not this time around. And I think Brady's one of these rare deals where it's like, what can motivate him at this point?

There's got to be, you have to go to the 90th thing on the list. And maybe the fact that the Eagles beat him in a Super Bowl might be eye-rolling to us at home. I think it does matter to him, and he doesn't want that narrative forever either. What about this could be his last season as a narrative? It's possible. I don't believe it. I don't think it.

What if this is like a Bill Russell 1969 situation where he's only three people in his life. No one knows. This is it. It's like him and three people in his life no one knows is it it's like him and him and gotham and his wife and kevin brady those are the only three people that know his team the inner circle alex guerrero knows that's it um we're we're teasing the bucks i'm just telling you now yeah it's one of the few things i feel good about this line stayed at eight and a half which is a miracle we can tease them down to minus two and a half

and we can use that six points with somebody else. You're into the inside baseball stuff about sports media. When they, I like treated the scheduling of these games, like the NCAA tournament, I find it so cool to see who's paired and where they put this team. What'd you think of putting

the defending Super Bowl champions and Tom Brady at one o'clock on Sunday when there's five other slots they could have filled them in? Was that disrespect to the Eagles or is that disrespect to Brady or is that just Fox has to get a game and the window, you're not going to put a West Coast team at one. What'd you make of Brady and the Bucks being placed at 1pm Eastern on Sunday? Well, it came down to 49ers Cowboys had to be the second game because that's the biggest audience. And the irony of this stuff is the biggest audience is always the late afternoon.

So you always want to put the best game there. So then it comes down to Bucs-Eagles in primetime versus Mahomes versus the Steelers. And I actually think they made the right call because even if the Chiefs are blowing out the Steelers, that's fun to watch. Ben's last game,

Tomlin on the sidelines. Big fan base. Steelers. Two big fan bases. Bucks-Eagles could just suck. And now you have this game where it's like Brady's up 27 to nothing against Philly.

You know. I do worry about the Chief touchdown potential too with this. It happened last time. That's when they played on that Thursday night. Brady was up 28 to 7

and I think the final score was 28-22 because they just chipped away, but it was never really a game. I remember. Well, we did this last year, and it worked for us. Don't pick an underdog

unless you actually think they can win. I do not think Philly can win. Then we have, beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight in water every day, get 10 hours of sleep, master every conceivable pliability exercise, have lots of sex with the supermodel, don't drink alcohol, don't eat inflammatory foods, don't smoke or do drugs, become faster in the late thirties and basically behave like an alien.

So we're not going to bet against that. Yeah. And then, um, and then the quarterback stuff. Rule number 14, before every playoff game, rate the coaches and quarterbacks from one to 10, add up their scores, make sure you're okay

backing a team with said score. The Hurts-Seriani combo is probably less than 10. Hurts is like a three out of 10 as a starting playoff quarterback. Seriani is like a five or a six, maybe. And then,

I just don't want to bet against Tom Brady against Jalen Hurts. At home, in the playoffs. Yeah. Yeah. So we'll put a little on the Bucs minus eight and a half, even though I think it's too high,

but really we're going to have the Bucs in a teaser. All right. So we have that one. Next one. By the way, rule number 11 in that was don't ever talk yourself into a terrible QB ever for any reason. I don't think Jalen Hurts is terrible, but in the right game, he can look terrible. If they're down, if they're down early, it's he's pushing and to be seen at time and time

and time again with Hurts this season that he's not going to lead you back with his arm. It's going to be his legs. But Bill, I go back to that Giants Eagles game. We watched every snap. Oh my God. That was not the greatest resume tape for us as bettors for Jalen Hurts in a big spot. I'm going to skip ahead to the Sunday night game because it's tied to the Bucs game for us. Chiefs minus 12 and a half against the Steelers. Seems like a high line, but as we talked about, the high line favorites in round one have been more successful than you think. KC, 7th DVOA, 24th on defense, but then you have this Pittsburgh team

that's 25th DVOA offense. It's going to be 27 degrees or lower. Cold. Pitt's defense, 27th versus the rush, 8th versus the pass in DVOA. But we talked about

Solak and I talked about McKinnon and how they have all this running back flexibility with all these guys back. And it looks like Hill's going to play. I just think Pittsburgh should not be in the playoffs. And it goes back to the seven seed thing. If we have six seeds, not seven, we don't even have to worry about Pittsburgh in the playoffs. If Chargers Raiders is a tie, we don't have Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Everything seemed to be this farewell tour, and now all of a sudden they're weirdly in the playoffs. I don't think they have any chance to win.

I'm not taking Ben in normal weather, much less cold weather. And I think he's the worst quarterback out of the 12 we have this weekend, by far. So we're taking the Chiefs. Anything you want to talk me out of? Absolutely not. I think Hill's back. I think Kelsey, although he limped off at the end of the first half, the expectation is he will be back. And although Williams 31 could be down,

I think Clyde Edwards Hilaire is the overall better running back and he will be back. Casey at night, Arrowhead, this used to be a house of horrors at home, but since Mahomes is there, they don't lose these playoff games at home, except I think only one was to the Patriots in his first big run in that AFC championship game. Ever since, Mahomes has been money in these home playoff games. I don't think there's much of a chance for Big Ben, even as good as Najee and TJ Watt have been. How do you feel about teasing the Chiefs down to six and a half, so they basically have to win by a touchdown? Yeah, I feel good about that.

I think a touchdown is not a crazy thing to say that that's a pretty doable thing, just rolling out of bed in the morning when they go up against that Steelers team. Yeah, I was trying to think, what are the scenarios that you'd feel terrible about that? If it's a super ugly TJ Watts all over the place.

TJ Watts dominates. Mahomes throws a dumb pick. I just think that I think they're going to be able to run the ball on them. And I just think they're way, way, way better. And don't overthink it. The Chiefs are way better than the Steelers.

They're home. They're not going to fuck around. It's the playoffs. Like, yeah, I'm fine laying the touchdown. The only way that they get in trouble is if like, and Najee Harris led the league in touches as a rookie. He did not fumble the ball once. is that Najee Harris literally goes for 250 and it's just sucking. Cause if you remember a couple of years ago, the Colts, um, and the Texans in back-to-back

weeks, there was Colts and the Titans back-to-back weeks, beat the chiefs. And everyone was like, what's wrong with the chiefs a couple of years ago. And it was because their running games just sucked the life out of the ball. And they just ran the ball for 200 yards, and Mahomes didn't get on the field. That's the only way to beat the Chiefs. And I don't know if the Steelers have the offensive line to dictate in the line of scrimmage, in the trenches. I just don't.

Ben just can't. If he's going to throw six passes in a row, two of them are going to be uncatchable. They could even Chiefs stack the line, play action. Kyle today on our show said that Ben has to throw three great passes

for them to have a chance. Three. I don't think it's crazy to say that. I don't know if he can throw three great passes. What about play action where he rolls out and guys wide open and just grounds it to him? We saw it last year with Phil Rivers where we went against him in a tease and same thing. It's like, sometimes these QBs pass the point of no return. He passed it two years ago. All right. Two more

games. We're gonna take one more break. All right. The big one, Cowboys Niners. I mean, I, I, I almost feel like we could do four hours on this game I am so so into this game so the history of these teams they play in the NFC

title game in 70 and 71 Dallas wins then they play in 72 81 was one of the great playoff games of my childhood

iconic put Montana on the map flip the NFC in all kinds of ways and set the tone for what would happen that decade. Then they played 92, 93, 94 during the Madden Summer All-Hay Day. It's so good. I mean, I wasn't alive for the catch where I was watching as a fan, but you go 92 with Jimmy and the Triplets versus Steve Young, who's finally under center and it's in candlestick and the Cowboys win like awesome game. And then the next year in Dallas,

Cowboys win. And then San Francisco flips it, flip it. And who knows if it's a pass interference on Dion on Michael Irvin, maybe it's a different game, but Troy got fell behind 21. Nothing. I can go deep with these games because they are Bill. like you said, they are my childhood. This is where I fell in love with football. Those three football games right there. And this is why it was the second game and not the third game because that's the best spot. The second Sunday afternoon spot is the best playoff spot

and this game had to be in that spot and brings back so many fun memories. The uniforms will be great. It's in Dallas. Everything about it. I'm going to ignore all the mushing people out there. And I'm just going to stick with my gut and how much I like this Niners team. And they've hurt us a couple times.

They have. They hurt us against Tennessee on a Thursday. That was crushing. I just believe in their team. And with Dallas, it comes back to something Solak and I talked about, McCarthy and the kicker. I think you have to just factor that in. That's like Dallas is already seven points down because of those two guys.

So San Francisco has a 7-0 lead right now. It's Thursday. And Robbie Gold showed his value on Sunday when their punter goes down and he's booting 50-yard beauties. And it's like, use check has got to be the holder. Okay, the Niners are so reliable when there's injuries. They always have the next man up. My only, there's a lot of things.

Let's hear it. Micah Parsons could be the Debo stopper. And that's how good Micah Parsons is. And Debo does his thing. And yeah, Von Miller and Aaron Donald are out there, but has there ever been like a spy to just watch him in the line of scrimmage and behind the line, like Micah can chase him down.

So I think they need a Herculean effort from Micah Parsons if they have a chance to even stop this running attack. And he might be able to deliver that. I talked to Francesco today randomly and we were talking about this game, and he had the same instinct, like, oh my God, everybody's in the Niners. It's such a red flag.

But he was saying, he was like, Michael Parsons, he might be the best defensive player in 20 years that's coming to the league. It's like, wow, that's, Francesa's seen a lot of football over the years, and if he thought Parsons was that good. Better than J.J. Watt, better than Vaughn Miller, better than Aaron Donald in their primes. Like, that's what you're saying. And I don't think it's a he thought Parsons was that good. Better than JJ Watt, better than Vaughn Miller,

better than Aaron Donald in their primes. Like that's what you're saying. And I don't think it's a crazy statement. He's that good. The roadmap to Dallas, this weirdly becomes the nobody believed in us game, even though they're favored. Dak's been really good the last four games,

at least statistically. I test still doesn't seem a hundred percent to me. I don't think he looks exactly the same. The schedule is also a little bit easier, obviously, but last four games, 13 touchdowns, zero picks,

but five, five of those were last week. I get it. Just, I'm pointing out the statistical resume. I really value the last 10 games of the season. And the Niners were seven and two in their last nine. And Dallas was six and four in the last 10 games of the season. And the Niners were 7-2 in their last nine and Dallas was 6-4 in their last 10.

So you almost throw the records out. All the evidence from the last three months is that the Niners actually probably have a better football team. Dallas has a lot of blue chippers. It's scary to go against them for all reasons. But what about the playoff history? The fact that a lot of losses and a lot of tough ones really since the mid-90s. Some playoff manifesto rules. Rule number five, beware of

the everybody believes in us team we mentioned. And then the rule number 13, McCarthy has to be on there. I just don't want to take Dallas because I'm trying to zag against everybody else. I don't think that's a good enough reason. Now we saw last week with Raiders Chargers, you were pointing out all the reasons to be afraid of the Raiders and you were right on all of those things. Fundamentally, I feel like the coach cost them that game. And that was the part I didn't factor in. I was like, I shouldn't have trusted Brandon Staley in that game. In that showdown, Rich Passaccia, we love the pit boss. He's not, this isn't Belichick.

This isn't some numbers quant. So it wasn't like it was this great disparity. Say what you want about Shanahan's overall record. And we've done that time and time again. And you and Cousin Salah brought up Walt Michaels and whoever else. Kyle Shanahan, he doesn't waver and he knows every scenario. And that guy, at the very least, you know, can coach and can look at the thing.

And like McCarthy's got the Super Bowl ring. Kyle doesn't. But if you're going head to head in just a big spot, that's where you got to make a decision. Who do you trust more? I trust the coaching, the blue chippers,

and the infrastructure of that Niners team. And I'll tell you this, it could be Packers-Niners a week from now if it plays out the way it does. I also think, we've seen this sometimes, and we've seen this even when we've done million-dollar picks on Thursdays. There's that first wave,

and then things shift on Friday, Saturday, and people start zagging the other way. That's happened a bunch of times, and I think it might happen with this. That's happened a bunch of times. And I think it might happen with this. Coward's on there on a Tuesday talking about how much he loves Niners plus three. By Friday, he's like, no, I'm actually going to zag the other way. There's too many people on it. And weirdly, that opens opportunities. So I'm just going to go. I think we go Niners plus three. We can talk about some of the Moneyline stuff with them in a second.

I find their running game, and I'm sure you could talk more in depth with Solak or some of the X's and O's expert, but I find their running game a pleasure to watch. And the guy who does it all is this guy, Mike McDaniel, who is interviewing for the Dolphins head coaching job next week. And he's a Yale guy. And he looks at the running game like a game of chess. And the way they build it off that Shanahan thing, you're going to see Debo in the backfield and you're going to see things you've never seen before. And it's every week they find a way to get the Elijah Mitchell runs and to get the use check runs and the occasional end around to someone else. I just think that this team, they are playing really good football

right now and they're doing it in such an unorthodox fashion that Dan Quinn better be ready for his old offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan, and what he's bringing. Because I think the Niners are coming. I think the winner of this game wins the NFC. Wow. I say that in the most talking head way possible. Clip it out. Put it on a website.

Bill, you saying that just had me go, wow. I really do. I think the winner will beat Green Bay at some point. But I think I believe in Green Bay less than others because I just don't believe in their defense. Now, can Jair Alexander get back in time at full speed? Could that change it? Sure. But I think you can have long drives on them.

And this running attack, the Niners won. It beat LeFleur in the regular season on a Sunday night. Then in the NFC Championship game, Mostert went nuts. Then this year when they played, remember Aaron Rodgers pulled two amazing passes out of his ass in the last second

of that Sunday night game and it was an amazing Rodgers performance. But Shanahan versus LeFleur, Shanahan's run game, it does do something to that team. Rams-Cardinals. Rams are favored by four at home. They've lost two safeties

and had to sign Eric Weddle, who I think is older than the coach. They now have two guys on the team who's older than Sean McVay. Arizona,

third hardest schedule in the league, four and six their last 10. One of the most penalized teams in the league. On the flip side, Stafford, eight turnovers

last four games. No Hopkins for Arizona. You go back and forth. Rams were 50 VOA. Arizona's 10th. Can make a case for either side. Really, this is the stay the fuck away game. It's stay away.

It's stay away in so many ways. I don't even know how to pick gambling rules for this. I just like when in doubt takes the points. Arizona is eight and one on the road. So that's like, okay, what do I do with that? Stafford's never won a playoff game, like what do I do with that? Um, Stafford's never won a playoff game. So what do I do with that? Uh, they're, they're without Deandre Hopkins, but they might have JJ watt. What do I do with that? And then you mentioned the safety situation. Now look, we're saying we're doing this on a Thursday. I don't know

if Weddle dresses on Monday night, honestly, I think they, they lost Fuller. Who's like their defensive captain back there and calls all the plays and all that stuff. And I think a lot of this was Weddle knows the defense he's going to come in and he's going to help coach these guys up this week. He might play, but at the very least them signing Weddle shouldn't be looked at as like, what a great savvy move. It does wreak a little bit. It's a panic move. Yeah. I'm with you. They've lost. We talked about losing Woods and Akers. Akers is now back, but he's not, it's not like they're going to like be able to really truly count on him.

Um, I just don't like the ceiling of this Rams team. I thought that Niners game was alarming where everything goes right for the first quarter and two thirds of the second quarter. And it's just perfect. It's 17, nothing. This is great. They've killed the Niners.

And the narrative, you go to sleep at night, they're gone out of the playoffs, and we never have to hear about them not being able to beat the Niners again. Great win. Let's start high-fiving. But no, they screwed up the end of the first half. Niners get the ball. All of a sudden, it's 17-10. And over and over again, they just couldn't put them away. It's like, well, all right. So why didn't, why weren't they able to put them away? You mentioned earlier, top heavy roster, bunch of, bunch of blue chippers, including Von Miller, who I didn't, you know, it's not like they're calling his name left and right in this telecast, but holes all over the place, right? Offensive line, not that great. Can't really run the ball at all. Sony was like 20 for 41 in that game or something. They can't protect leads. So even if they come out and they beat the cards and they're up 10, I still don't trust them to be able to hold on to a lead in the second half

where you have Kyler who can run around and do the schoolyard thing. And even the cheap touchdown potential of the cards I like, but I like the cards. I think they could win. I think they could cheap touchdown it. I don't want to lay the points in this game. I don't love it. It's not like we're going to be putting major bucks on it, but this is a when in doubt, take the points. What do you think?

I think there's going to be a lot of offense. So which offense do you like more? I like the Rams offense more. I say that with a question mark, knowing that both Connor and Edmonds are healthy for the first time ever all season. Yeah, don't you think the Cards can run the ball? They can.

I feel like they could. Connor had 18 touchdowns this year. He missed a lot of time. Connor was awesome and he's healthy. So the reason he was every week, it was Schefter saying, there's a chance he could play and then he didn't dress

and he killed your fantasy team was because they were building towards the playoffs. So Connor hasn't had any workload since before the Indianapolis game. That was because they wanted to save his foot. They wanted to make sure his heel was okay for this game. So I don't, and I guess part of it also is, I think both coaches really want to win this game. And I don't know who to pick between the two as far as X's and O's go. I think that the offenses are going to show up. So if you can bet the over in this game and take yourself out of to pick between the two as far as X's and O's go, I think that the offenses are going to show up. So if you can bet the over in this game

and take yourself out of the pick and the winner, I think that's a safe play. I think there's going to be a lot of points scored and both defenses are hurting right now. Well, we have some money line stuff we can do with the Cardinals too, which is exciting. We could parlay the Raiders and Cardinals to win.

It's plus 654. An underdog parlay, if you will. An underdog parlay, if you will. So we have that. A couple other ones. Just some fun bets before we do the picks. We have Bucks minus two and a half with the Bucks over in that game of 41 and a half,

an alternate line parlay is minus 103, basically even money. So you could say, can that game get to 42 points with the bucks winning by three? There's one. If you want to say Pats win because the weather's going to be cold and this is Belichick time, Pats plus 172 with the under of 44 is plus 350. If you want to get super aggressive with the over-under, you can take it down to 37.5 on FanDuel. It's two to one. Pats plus 172, you put those two together,

plus 618. That's the greatest Belichick performance of all time, silencing that defense and getting just enough offense from back in the running backs. It's the Belichick cold weather parlay, right? This is it. This is the Titans in 2017. 16-14.

19-13. 12-10. We might be doing that one. Highest scoring game. Pittsburgh, Kansas City, plus 500. Highest scoring game of the six. Cold weather. You got to ask a lot of points out of Ben.

That's asking a lot. Some cheap touchdowns at the end. Ben scrambling. Chase Claypool. Philly, Tampa, plus 350. Lowest scoring game. Pats, Bills, plus 200. Cards, Rams, plus 350. Lowest scoring game. Pats-Bills plus 200. Cards-Rams plus 600?

But you like the offense. I love the offense in that game. Lowest scoring team. Bills, 8-1. We said we're going to do a little small something. I didn't think we were going to go all in on the Patriots.

I'm not saying we're betting any of these. I'm just giving you bets that jumped out to me. Lowest scoring team, Rams, 20 to 1. Wow. To score the least amount of points this weekend. 20 to 1 seems kind of high. The Bills 1 is interesting, though, because if it's super cold and that becomes a 12-10 game and that's your argument,

then the question could be, is anybody else dipping below that? You would look at Pittsburgh, maybe Philly. Last one. 49ers are plus 140 to win the game outright. So the question is, do you take the plus three or do you grab the money line? On Fando, a lot of people are betting the money line. The cards are plus 162, Pats are plus 172, and the Raiders are plus 188. Those would be our money line picks. Any of those jump out to you? Yeah, I think the Niners straight up is very enticing. Okay, the Niners plus 140. Do you like Raiders cards plus 654? I don't. Which one scares you out of those two?

They both scare me, and I don't think Which one scares you out of those? They both scare me, and I don't think both of those are going to happen this week. So we're going to have no underdog parlay this week unless we do a goofy Pat's line, which I think we should. Okay, let's do that one.

You want to do the Belichick cold weather? The plus 172? I'm going to ask Fando if they'll boost this for us. Okay, so what do you want to call it? Do you want to call it the Drew Bennett parlay? Because that's what it would take. It would take a drop like Drew Bennett's at the end of the game.

And it's such a deep cut reference that maybe seven Patriots fans would appreciate it. I think the Drew Bennett, Belichick. I think it's too deep cut. All right. The Belichick coaching masterpiece. How about the Vinatieri Memorial? Okay. Whatever they want to call it. It's already special. Pats plus 172. Under 37 and a half. Plus 618. So maybe we'll boost that to plus 750. All right.

When we come back, the million dollar picks. Come on. For round one. All right, it's time. The million-dollar picks for round one of the NFL playoffs. Me and Peter Schrager last year, we cleaned up. We won $4.653 million in four weeks.

We picked the winner of every game. We went 10-3 against the spread. I think we went 10-0 in our big bets. We only have one big bet for round one. This is a weird round. We like a lot of the road teams, which makes us nervous. There's a lot of first-time quarterbacks. There's a lot of everybody-believes-in-us teams. We're going to be careful. There's one teaser that we like. It involves the Tampa Bay Bucs taking them from minus eight and a half to minus two and a half. And the Kansas City Chiefs taking them from minus 12 and a half

to minus six and a half. Let's recap this really quickly. Tom Brady against Jalen Hurts, Bucs home, Bucs almost everybody back. They might not have David back, but basically this is a bet against the Eagles going into Tampa and beating Tom Brady, the seven time champ. This might not have David back, but basically this is a bet against the Eagles going into Tampa and beating Tom Brady, the seven-time champ. This is not how it ends for him, Peter Schrager. This can't be how it ends. We didn't think that it was going to end that way for him as a Patriot against Tennessee on the wild card. It can't end

with him, the Bucs, this year and go into another offseason of questions. Why did you have to bring that up? I'm sorry, because you're here. Brady doesn't lose at one o'clock this season. And I think Brady and that Eagles logo, as corny as you might think at home, this might sound,

I think that means something to him. He doesn't want to lose to the Eagles again. And it seems like he could move the ball up and down on them all day. We're going to just hope they win by three. So that's part of the tease. The other piece, the Chiefs down 2-6.5 against the Steelers. By far the worst team in the playoffs. The Chiefs rounding into shape.

They have all these running backs. And this one feels like, out of anything, has a chance to be a blowout. You agree? Yeah. And they got any, you know, whatever it was, they got it out of their system last week. They found a way to win against Denver. And now it's like, okay, we got that out of our system. We are a team that goes to the AFC championship game

three years in a row, and we have won it the last two years. It doesn't end with Ben Roethlisberger in our building. They win by more than seven. We're putting $500,000 in that case, Bill. We're betting six playoff games, all six of them straight up, just so we're on the record.

We did this last year, 100K on each. Raiders, plus four and a half, to hang with the Bengals and possibly beat them. Pit Boss Rich, you've cost us so much money this year, we're not going against you anymore. We like the matchup of the Raiders defensive line against the Bengals offensive line. We're aware that last week there was confetti

and a whole bunch of red flags in the Raiders game and that they were only playing five and a half days later. We're aware of all of these things. I just feel like the Bengals are a year away. I think they've had their run. The Chiefs game will be the highlight of their season. And even if they pull this one out, I think it's going to be tough.

Raiders plus four and a half, 100K on that. Pats plus four against the Bills. I don't feel great about this. We don't feel great about it. Neither one of us do, but we're not letting you bet against the Patriots in a big game. I can't bet against the Patriots in a big game. I don't feel great about this. Right, we don't feel great about it. Neither one of us do, but we're not letting you bet against the Patriots in a big game.

I can't bet against the Patriots in a big game. I'm sorry. I'm just not going to do it. I will say, as we laid out earlier in the podcast, this is going to be

a freezing cold game and there is mountains of evidence that freezing cold means weird, ugly, disjointed, low-scoring game where nobody can really

do anything, where the elements even it out, and it comes down to a couple plays near the end. Hopefully my guy Mac cannot self-destruct in the first half. But plus four, Belichick infrastructure, cold weather. We saw them go in with the 40-mile-an-hour winds two months ago and pull one out there. Pats plus four.

I don't love this either, but we're going to take the Bucs minus eight and a half against the Eagles under the playoff manifesto rule of don't take an underdog unless you think they can win. I do not think the Eagles

can win this game. So we're just going to suck it up and hope the Bucs pull away. 49ers plus three over the Cowboys. Also violating a very important manifesto rule, which is beware of the everybody believes ino rule, which is, beware of the everybody believes in us team,

which is the 49ers. A lot of people are on this game. We're hoping it zags the other way and some people are going to counter it over the next couple of days. There's a pendulum. Everyone was in on the Niners early and then there becomes the clever thinkers. Well, actually, the Cowboys,

they are home. They've got all these stars. No, no. Stay with what you felt from the beginning. Nothing has changed since the beginning. I'm going Niners with you. And I think the winner. Nothing has changed since the beginning. I'm going Niners with you. And I think the winner of this game wins the NFC. I like the Niners.

I do not trust the Cowboys kicker or their coach. And I feel much better taking the Niners. 49ers plus three. Chiefs minus 12 and a half against the Steelers. We have another 100K on that on top of the tees we have. And then finally, last but not least, Cards plus three and a half against the Rams. This is a classic stay away game. Don't bet a lot of money in this game. Don't try to chase on Monday because you lost. This fan duel has just opened up in New York.

I live in New York. Friends that I haven't heard from in 15 years are texting me. So who do you like this weekend? This is crazy. This fan duel being alive in New York right now is like a whole other world that has entered my life. And I'll tell you this, I'm not giving out any advice on anything. This one, I wouldn't touch in a million years. There's way too many variables about both these teams right now. And none of them are like, hey, this is a good inclination that this team's going to do it. But you got to make a pick, Bill. Who do you like? These are our two wonk teams. So we're going to win in doubt going to, when in doubt, take the points.

We're going to take the cards plus three and a half. I will say there's some real signs with the Rams that I do not like. I don't like that they can't run the ball. I don't like that they can't really get stops

when they need it, which we saw again last minute of the Niners games. And just in general, they seem flimsy to me. The cards also seem incredibly flimsy. And when in doubt,

take the points. Cardinals, eight and1 on the road. And the Rams signing Eric Weddle was celebrated. And what a cool story. Yeah, it's a disaster. Jordan Fuller going down is a big deal for the Rams. And we also think the cards can run on the Rams. Connor Edmonds combo.

All right, so we're doing all those. And then we have some fun parlays for you. This first one is the Bill Belichick, Drew Bennett, Adam Vinatieri, cold weather playoff history parlay. So if we think the Pats are going to win partly because of the elements, because it's so freezing cold, everything evens out, the crowd's dead.

Everyone's covered up. They're wearing gloves. They got the ski masks over their heads and it's just quiet and it's just the ground's hard and Josh Allen's taking a couple hits

and it's just like an ugly field goals field position game but we're taking the Pats on that Pats plus 172 and we're gonna do an alternate line

of the under down to 37.5 which is plus 200 on FanDuel combo that plus 618. The scenario would be Pats win 16-13, 12-10, 13-10, 17-10, 10-9. It's the only conceivable way the Patriots win this game is in this fashion. They're not winning

31-28 and they're certainly not winning on Mac Jones. This is going to be a time of possession game where Josh Allen touched the ball for only two drives in the second half. And it's because of what they did on offense with the ground game. A little Ramondre Harris. Yeah. If we combine the two, it's Ramondre and it's Harris. And I'll say if it was up to me, we might not be picking the Patriots, but I will say this, if we're going that route, you might as well bring in the under as well. You were on the sidelines for Seahawks-Vikings, which was absolutely freezing cold in 2016. And you know firsthand,

the first quarter you can do it. Yeah. By the time we get to the fourth quarter, especially in the night game, your soul starts leaving your body. It's so cold. It's so cold. Keep that in mind.

So we're going to put just a little flyer on the Pats, plus 618, plus 172 in the under 37 and a half. Next one, a Chiefs, same game parlay that we forgot to mention when we were doing the setup a million dollar picks before. This is a fun one. So we're betting on a Chiefs blowout and the over-under for that on FanDuel, 20 and a half, you get better odds because the over-under in real life is 12 and a half. Juicing those odds, going Chiefs 20 and a half. So they have to win by 21. Travis Kelsey, anytime touchdown score. Pat Mahomes over 280 and a half yards, plus 600 on FanDuel. Which one do we boost? Do you want to boost the Pat's one or you want to boost this one?

This one. All right, let's boost this one. So it's plus 600. We'll boost it to plus 750 for this and maybe FanDuel will join us. It's respect the Chiefs. Like, respect what they do. Respect Chiefs.

Chiefs blow out. Mahomes, 281 yards. Kelsey scores. If they win by 21, you win all of them, six to one outs. Next one is, you like the cards over.

You think this could be a shootout. So we're going to just a little flyer on cards. We're doing the over. It's a crazy one over under 54 and a half. There needs to be 55 points in this game. And the cards win plus 506. I think there's huge points in this game. I have questions about both defenses,

especially on the back end with what LA has going on and also what Arizona has going on. I think there's plenty of points in this game. I have questions about both defenses, especially on the back end with what LA has going on and also what Arizona has going on. I think there's plenty of points in this one. And if the Cardinals are going to win, they've got to outscore the Rams. And if we're going Cardinals, which again, I'm not so all in on, I do think it's going to be a shootout.

We're taking a flyer. Plus 5.06. And then last one, we're taking a flyer on Raiders to win in a cold weather situation. Taking the under all the way to 53 and a half. The parlay of that is plus 282. So we'll put 33K on that as well.

So we have four 33K parlays. If we hit one, they pay for the other ones. Hey, the Max Crosby game. If we hit two, we're rolling. Yeah, the Max Crosby game. Cold weather, Raiders win 2014. 21 to 20. 21-13.

Yeah. A couple touchdowns. Some first downs. So there we go. What's your favorite of all of those? I feel really good about the 49ers. I'm sorry, Cousin Sal and the Cowboys fans. I do.

I'm sorry. Should we put a little more on the 49ers? You want to do the 49ers money line? Keep picturing Kyle Shanahan versus Mike McCarthy in the lab right now. I don't know. You know what? We're putting an extra 100K in the Niners. Niners plus 140. We're doing it. Everybody believes in this team. We're going to be believing right there with you. That's our last one. Niners, 100K, plus 140. Those are the million-dollar picks

for round one of the playoffs. You can watch Peter Schrager. Are you going to be on Fox this weekend? I will. I'll be out in LA before the Buccaneers-Eagles game. We have a show on Fox, Fox NFL kickoff.

I will be out there for that. And then good morning football as well. And I will see you in this space next week. Let's go, Bill. Let's get back space next week. Let's go, Bill. Let's get back on this thing. Let's go. Let's go.

That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Ben and Peter. Thanks to Kyle Crane for producing this podcast. Thanks to Dylan Berkey and Steve Cerruti. And I will see you on this feed on Sunday after five of the six NFL games. Be careful out there. On the wayside, I'm a bruised soul, I never lost it. I don't have to ever forget.