The Bill Simmons Podcast - Jimmy Kimmel, Plus Red-Hot Million Dollar Picks With Peter Schrager

Episode Date: January 22, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Jimmy Kimmel to discuss Cousin Sal’s new book, ‘You Can't Lose Them All: Tales of a Degenerate Gambler and His Ridiculous Friends,’ what the end of the Trump presidency means for ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!,’ how ‘SNL’ might address the Biden administration, the greatest pranks from Jimmy's show, and more (2:20). Then Bill talks with Fox and NFL Network’s Peter Schrager about Packers-Buccaneers and Chiefs-Bills before giving out his Million-Dollar Picks for the NFL conference championship games (49:00). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, I'm going to talk to my old boss. I've had a lot of old bosses. Well, he's probably the most famous old boss I've had. Jimmy Kimmel plus million dollar picks, smoking hot, red hot. It's all next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good.

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helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit RG dash help dot com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up

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And if you like the rewatchables, it's action movie week on the rewatchables. We did First Blood on Monday and we did The Terminator on Wednesday. And then even better, Terminator 2 coming on Monday. So yeah, three of the best action movies of all time. I don't know what else I can do for you. January 2021, such a happy time, such a happy week.

I wonder what's changed. Coming up, my old boss, Jimmy Kimmel, and we're going to do million dollar picks with Peter Schrager. And I'm going to see if I can keep my hot streak going. One of the rules of a hot streak is don't talk about how you're having a hot streak, but, um, we'll see if I can keep it going. First. All right, Jimmy Kimmel is here. We're taping this. It's a little after 5.30 on Thursday.

He just taped an episode of his show, Jimmy Kimmel Live. I like getting him right after he tapes his TV show because he's a little groggy. He's punchy. He's not really concentrating on what he's saying. It's great. You know, it's actually not true. I'm a little bit, I feel like I've just gotten started when I'm done with the show.

So I'm ready to go. It's like an appetizer. I just got Cousin Sal's book sent to me too. And it was very weird to get a, to see Sal on a book, first of all. And it's a real book. You know, it's one thing to hear about it, but to hold it is an entirely different thing. I had the same experience. I got it yesterday. I started reading it. My wife came home from some little birthday thing she had.

And I just didn't even want to, I was just like, leave me alone. I read 110 pages. I knew most of the stories beforehand, but it was so fun to see him in print. And just in general, it's like hilarious. Sal wrote a book. I know it's crazy, right? This life. I mean, it's funny because we all tell stories about him all the time. And it makes perfect sense that somebody who's who you tell stories about all the time would write a book about their life.

Especially he has a million characters in his life. So to harness all of them into a book Every like six weeks We have a couple text threads that Sal's on And every six weeks He drops a gem and then I text you separately Like just a reminder Sal's the fucking funniest out of anyone

He really is every six weeks He just lays a smack down Yeah I would say he presents a gem Almost every day just every six weeks You declare him a smack down yeah i would say he late he presents a gem almost every day just every six weeks you declare him the funniest of all time every six weeks i i reminded and i'm remembered but yeah i mean this book has like your family members are in it it's funny we're promoting his book he's not even on but it's like your grandfather's in it your grandmother stories i didn't know about people in your family uh it was it was fascinating my aunt chippy

got him into gambling she really did she she put the bug in his his body and she would take him when he was a teenager to the to the bowling alley in vegas and he he would take twenty dollars you know before we go on one of these trips he was living in long island our parents would give us like i remember i was in brooklyn for three and a half weeks and my parents gave me $30 for the whole, and this wasn't, you know, the forties, but Sal would get, you know, like 20 or 40 bucks and he took that 20 bucks and he fed it into a video poker machine and Antipisata, that video poker machine,

it smoked and Sal won. And I think just kept gambling from that moment on. You know, I was thinking as I was reading the book, why do people become, why do people develop a sense of humor? Why do people become funny? Is it, it's almost like an athletic gene, right? Are you born funny or is it circumstances that make somebody's funnier? Is it both? And I'm convinced it's mostly family related, especially as you get older and you realize people in your family are funny. Yeah. And once you cross that line and you had that with like,

Sal's story in the book about when you guys all realized that aunt Chippy and uncle Frank fighting was funny versus traumatic. And once you cross that line and it's like, oh, these are characters in a TV show that doesn't exist. And then like like the ceiling comes off. So I really do think it's it's pushed by the family more than anything. I think you're totally right. I think there is some genetic something there.

But of course, that ties back to the family, too. But I just also not only that there are two people in our family we i have a very funny family almost everyone in my family is funny you know really like almost every single person in the family would be the funniest person at their office you know right but sal well my grandfather was always the funniest his name was sal too and then sal was from just a young from really since he was a little boy, was the funniest. I remember specifically he broke a window with a baseball bat and his mother, his mother was like, Sal, do you remember we watched the Cosby show? And they said, always be honest, because he was pretending he hadn't done it and always be honest

and that's always the right thing to do and he goes alright Theo did it well you have it with your son now because how old is your son now exactly he's six my son is three no three my daughter is six my son is three he's the reincarn. My daughter is six. My son is three. He's the

reincarnation of Sal. He now just and he sent I sent you a picture of him. We could all probably be arrested for. But he now just if we're upset with him, if we scold him, he just drops his pants and his penis is out and we can't help but laugh. And it just derails the whole thing like the disciplines right out the window. And we try not to laugh. We know that it's bad to laugh. We know that in the long run, it's probably not a good thing, but my wife is upset with him.

He'll just look her right in the eye and just pull out his penis. And that's really what Sal would do. I mean, in the old days, Sal was also the first person that I ever heard talk about how small his penis was. When you're a teenager, everyone's like, oh, yeah, I got it. You know, everybody's bragging about the size of their penis. Everyone's lying.

Sal would always joke about how small his was. And the first time I heard that after Sal was Howard Stern, I think. I'd never heard it before. You know, little boys, I remember I had my daughter and then waiting to find out what the second kid was going to be, a girl or a boy. And really like genuinely believing, well, if it's a second girl, that's great. I love having a daughter. It'll be great. I'll be the dad of two girls. It'll be fine. I'm so glad we had a boy. It's such a different experience. And we were texting about it the other day. One of the things that's so funny we had a boy. It's such a different experience. And we were texting about it the

other day. One of the things that's so funny about having a boy is when they hit that stage where they realize the only things that are funny in life are farting, poops, and dicks and balls. It's basically those four things. It's like, it's like the Mount Rushmore of comedy. And once they realize that it's just a rollercoaster ride from that point on. In my case, I never really got past that. I never graduated beyond that. It really just stayed right there.

Yeah. And just to live it through vicariously through them. But now you're living through it now with your son using nudity as a weapon. I had the same experience. My oldest daughter, Katie, who's 29 years old now. And then my ex-wife got pregnant a couple of years later and she kept saying it was going to

be a girl. So I figured she'd seen the sonogram or asked or something like that. And she was pretending that she hadn't. And so I became resigned to, I thought it was going to be a girl, which was fine with me. I enjoyed the, you know, I enjoyed my daughter and I was perfectly fine with it. But I do remember when Kevin, my son, was born, I was almost, I was literally had to stop myself from jumping up and down. I was so excited. Because it's like you have a buddy for life. It's just like, oh, cool. And you get to, yeah, and you get to like buy all the toys you never had.

Right. to yeah and you get to like buy all the toys you never had right you know go through all the Marvel movies again and the comics you know all of that stuff you get to do all over again the madman not that you don't with girls sometimes you do but not typically and that was yeah it's

nice to have one of each it really is or two that's the thing too yeah it's its own journey with both that is so completely different. And like our agent, who now we have to call our manager because of whatever the fuck is going on with the thing.

Our manager, James Dixon, he had all girls and sometimes when we talk about the little boy stuff, he's just left out. He doesn't know what we're talking about. Yeah, but he has his cigarettes, which in a way, those are his stuff.

True. So going back to Sal, you were trying to hire me for your show in 2001, or 2002. And one of your selling points was Sal, who I didn't know. And I'm like, I have to move with LA with my fiance and who are my friends going to be? And you were like, well, Sal's going

to be your best friend. And I'm like, why, how do I know that? And he's like, just trust me. And then you flew me out for the weekend and it was a Friday and Sal has like this piece of paper with all his bets. He's going to make on whatever, football and college that week. And he's pacing around and he's got 17 teases going. I'm like, oh, this guy is going to be my friend. I can tell. And almost 20 years later, we're still friends.

He used to, you know, he would write on little scraps of paper. And I guess to avoid being arrested was the idea because then he would tear them up into a million pieces and flush them down the toilet. It was weird. Like, I mean, living with a guy who is basically committing multiple felonies every single day. And those days are behind us now because we have online gambling, but it, you know, it's a crime. He could have gone to prison. He's probably committed more crimes Than anyone I know Well, when we were writing for your show

That first year It was this weird thing where you could bet Wherever the offshore Betting sites were There was this weird window So we would write The show wasn't on until like 9.05 And we would always have

There would be that four hour kind of dead time from like four o'clock to eight o'clock, whatever. After you had most of the stuff, you're putting it together. Yeah. KP's looking for a guest and we would go on these sites and Sal would have, you know, we would have like 19 different things. And one time one of the sites posted the wrong line. So it was like, I don't know,

Pistons were supposed to be favored by eight and they accidentally put Pistons plus eight. So we put this huge bet on the Pistons plus eight and then they switched the line to what it should be. So then we bet the other team plus eight. We were all proud of ourselves. We had all money. There's like,

it was like the impossible bet. We could never lose this bet. Then they canceled the first bet because it was the wrong line. So now we're stuck with the other bet with this huge thing on it, which of course lost. And we're so mad that we had to go to your show and we're just like, he's pacing. Yeah, that should have been in the book. That's the thing. He has so many chapters that could have been in there that didn't even make the cut. I know that's how it goes. You write and then people start going, hey, you remember the time? You're like, oh my god.

Yeah, how could I forget that? But that's, I guess, why you have the paperback, right? That kind of stuff. That's true. He can add all that after. Well, anyway, that book's coming out. You can pre-order it right now. It's out now. I mean, I have it. I don't know. But it's officially like you can, I think, buy it in a bookstore

that nobody can go to a bookstore, but it can be delivered to your house on Tuesday. You can't lose the mall. Cousin Sal, people don't know his last name, is Iacono, I-A-C-O-N-O. So there you go. So for the last four years, actually the last five years,

you had Trump as this character for your late night show. It was the character you didn't really want. Had to figure out all these different ways to mine comedy from him. And now he's gone. Now he is, now he has limped off into the sunset, but then you, you had one last really great one.

You somehow got Billy Bush to do, to do a bookend video, which you kept secret. And I got to say, I was surprised he was in it. But at the same time, it was actually a really smart move for him to be in it. But I thought it was really good. Can I tell you the story behind that? Yes, please do.

Well, we came up with that bit. And we were then looking for someone to play Billy Bush because we didn't imagine that Billy Bush would want to revisit that in his life. I mean, look, I think it was a smart thing to do but it really didn't even occur to us that billy bush would consider doing that seeing as how it was probably one of the top three most painful moments of his not just career but since he was born yeah i would say top one he somebody from his show saw the casting breakdown and which we said we're looking for a billy bush look-alike and they were like well how about billy bush we said would he really do it and when we said they said yeah he'll do it and so we sent him the material and i was like i don't

think he's gonna do this this is not you, you know, this is not really his brand necessarily. And sure enough, he did it. And it was funny. I'm glad he did it. It's a good move by him. Yeah, I know. Imagine how much that guy got punished for just standing there while Donald Trump said those things. And now Donald Trump is the president.

Oh my God. Talk about just getting the short end of the stick. That's about as bad as it gets. So Trump's gone. And now, I mean, we can talk about what it was like five years of Trump in a second, but now you move into this new world where we have basically a normal

president again, who's not, who's not going to be delivering comedy week to week. And now it's just, um, a pandemic. And, it's just a pandemic. That's fun. Not a lot of comedy right now is my point.

Yeah, but you know how it is. The news, they only have a certain amount of news and they let on what they put the biggest or most interesting or most compelling stories on. And when Donald Trump isn't there, something else will be there. I also am skeptical. I don't know, maybe I'm having some kind of weird,

like when you're released from captivity and then you can't, like when you're released from jail after 30 years, they match the DNA to somebody else and then they say, all right, you're out, go work at a restaurant. And you're like, all right, I'm not sure how I will do this exactly. I'm skeptical.

I feel like I don't feel like he's gone. I think that we're going to see less of him. Certainly, he's disappeared somewhat because of the social media ban. You know, really, I'm sure that's driving him nuts. But I don't think he's going to make it a week at Mar-a-Lago. I don't think he's going to be able to take this at all. I predict that within seven days time, he's on the phone talking to Sean Hannity for two hours. He's going to be phoning into these shows.

He can't keep he can't sit there. I've been to Mar-a-Lago, by the way. I don't know if I ever told you that. What? I had dinner at Mar-a-Lago like six years ago with Howard Stern, actually, because he lives near there. And we went there for dinner because he's like, you got to see this place. And this is not I mean, this place, you could not possibly exaggerate how comical it is. First of all, everyone there is a hundred years old. I mean, when I was there, I was like, what is Trump? Why would he want to be here? It's like his

grandparents. He's old to start with. His grandparents came to visit this place. They're all hunched over people who are eating soft food. And all over the place, there are pictures of Donald Trump. There are dozens and dozens, or at least there were when I was there. If you go to the men's room, it's just all pictures of Donald Trump and not just pictures.

Like he'll have anything he'd have. Now he's got real magazine covers. He'd have fake, like those fake magazine covers that you, you know, when you go on vacation, you know, they put you on the cover of time or something right have those hanging in on the walls there he'd have like ratings articles

about the apprentice in which they finished 12th framed and that one was hanging right on the wall of the entrance like just like things that oh gosh mean, like you never hang on the wall of your house. We're hanging on display for all to see at this club. And it was just a bunch of really old people saying nothing and kind of doing nothing. There was no music playing during dinner. It was just quiet and a terrible place. And now he lives in this terrible place. And I'm sure he's going to get

plenty of people coming up to him he's got all his sycophants surrounding him but he's going to get sick of that he's going to need some action and um and he's we have not seen the last of him i would bet any i've studied this man as much as i've studied anyone in my life i'm sad to say is i i feel like i know him very, very well, even though I don't know him very well. But I feel like he's predictable, and I don't think it's over by any stretch of the imagination.

I think it's like Mike Tyson. Like, we thought Mike Tyson was done at one point. I thought he was retired, that he's fighting somebody else, fighting Razor Reddick. Here he is 20 years later, still fighting, still doing stuff, still in the news and still around.

I wonder what bothers Trump more, losing the presidency or losing his Twitter account. That's got to drive him nuts. The Twitter thing's got to be driving him into a frenzy because if he had it, he'd be tweeting, what,

100 times a day? 200? Oh, yeah. He's got no audience i mean he's like it really is like it's crazy that he what he must i mean this is a total surprise this part we didn't expect we thought that he'd leave and he'd continue he'd be on tv all the time he'd be tweeting all the time every thought would still be. And now he has no outlet at all. Oh, poor Melania.

Well, that was one of the... I learned a lot over the last week because some stuff trickled out because I think the aides all started talking. And one of them was how they didn't sleep in the same bedroom. Did you see that thing? Yeah, that's been known for a while. I didn't know that

because they were like, the Bidens will be sleeping in the same bedroom. Yeah. Mr. Trump slept in there and Melania was over on the other side. I was like, wow. It's like the movie Dave. You think about it, it's even funnier because he likes to watch TV about himself all night and he probably can't

sleep. He's probably sick of hearing him complain about himself, about how he's presented. It does make sense, but, uh, I mean, really, what do you think? You think those two are lovey dovey? Probably not, probably not a lot of, probably not a lot of cuddling, but yeah, there was a lot of, uh, a lot of weird revelations that came out. I keep coming back to, I thought for sure he would have this whole media infrastructure ready to launch Trump TV, it's going to be called.

I thought they were secretly working on it for the last six months. Me too. And it was going to be like, press the button and we're off. And it doesn't exist. And who would have guessed that a guy who's totally unprepared for every situation would be unprepared for that? I have a theory on that, though. I don't think he was able

to do that because the minute that that leaked and it would leak of course it would have seemed like he thought he's gonna lose i know i don't think it's that's even that but yeah no i think you're it's part that's partly but also he would have made an immediate enemy of fox news and the other right-wing outlets would suddenly see him as a competitor rather than their non-stop content so I think that that probably was one of the things that yeah but he couldn't have believed he was going to win maybe he did I don't know all I know is and I don't know if I've I've told you this and I can't really go into a ton of detail but I know for a fact that he did not I know for a fact I know people presume it but I know for a fact that he did not, I know for a fact, and I know people presume it, but I know for a fact that he did not think he was going to win

the first time against Hillary Clinton. Oh yeah. I totally believe that. Yeah. And no one thought it. And in fact, they didn't even have a photographer on hand after the election results came out. And if you look, you won't find any pictures of that night because he didn't want a photographer in there taking a picture of them when they lost. And that's kind of interesting. And it makes you wonder if even this fairy tale that he's been spreading around, if even he believes it. I think it's possible that he does, but probably not likely. Are you optimistic for the next four years for the country

with all the division and the anger and all that stuff? Because you're kind of in the middle of it in the sense that you took a lot of shit from one side for a while, but also like your show appeals to 50 states and I think you're kind of the everyman in a lot of shit from one side for a while but also like your show appeals to 50 states and i think you're kind of the everyman in a lot of ways so i'm lucky because i am able to get shit from both sides all the time so it's really great for me uh it you know what i am mostly concerned about

like the next few months really i think that the vaccine needs to be more available. And it is, that's got, I think that's going to take a lot of our attention right off the bat. I don't think people are going to work together. But, you know, I also think that ultimately Americans are disinterested in politics. And I just don't know that we have the attention span to maintain this level of anger at each other. And, you know, I think we're going to probably at some point go back to hating each other's football teams. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate

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Pennzoil. Long may we drive. Available at your local Canadian tire. Enrollment required. Keep your receipts. Other conditions apply. See Pennzoil.ca slash warranty for full details. I think the weirdest thing for me has been how the concept of comedy has changed. You know, like even like I'm really curious to see what like Saturday Night Live does with Biden and Kamala. Because, you know, I think I think when it was them versus the Trump empire, I think they were a little careful about not being too mean with Biden.

But now he's the president for the next four years. Right. You could argue, you could do like a whole weekend at Bernie's for the next two years and just, you know, that that's what they would have done in the seventies and eighties. Right.

They would have turned him into a character. They would have turned him into the super old guy who doesn't know where he is. Yeah. And it wouldn't have been who he is, but that would have been the parody of the 78 year old president. I wonder how they're going to handle it. And just in general,

how people are going to handle this stuff. Can, are we going to be allowed to make fun of the Biden presidency? Yeah. I mean, you have to, but I do think it will be done in a, in a cartoonish way and the way you described.

And if you think back like to the seventies and you think about like Chevy Chase is, it wasn't even an impersonation. He just sat on president Ford. He would just fall over the podium and fall down. And it was based on really nothing at all. Like it was based on nothing. Like, as far as I know, Gerald Ford was like a pretty good athlete. Like, you know, it wasn't a clumsy man. I think maybe there was one. I think he felt, no, he felt coming out of a plane once.

That's how it started. Yeah. And then that just became like the thing. And, um, and people went with it and it's weird because it is how, you know, the,

the way your, your caricature is how a lot of people think of you. Cause people don't necessarily dig so deep when it comes to politics and when it comes to other human beings. And yeah, if everybody does the doddering old guy, that's who Joe Biden is going to be to a lot of people. The doddering old guy. And you know what? He is an old guy. He is old.

He could be 79. Yeah, the first impression that I remember them doing that I actually felt like hurt the person politically was when Carvey used to do the George Bush, the dad, not George W. Bush, when he did a thousand points of light. And he just like, it was almost too good. And I do feel like it kind of hurt Bush heading against Clinton thing

because he picked on these like three things and did it so perfectly that it kind of changed how you saw Bush when he gave speeches. You just saw like the Dana Carvey thing. I don't know if SNL has that kind of power anymore because I don't think the audience is as big. Well, it's funny, though, because it was so gentle. But yeah, it was. But also President Bush at the time, I think played it very well. And he would have Dana Carvey come to every event. True. Like we don't have that

kind of thing. And especially not when it comes to crossing party lines, you know, I mean, Alec Baldwin and Donald Trump are not doing any charity events together. No. Well, what, so what, what happens to your going forward? How many, you have two years left, so what, what happens to your going forward?

How many, you have two years left, three years, potentially more. Who knows? I have two years left. And in fact, the, um, the 23rd, which I don't know, is that Wednesday or something is our, um, we begin our 19th season of the show. That's the day the show's premiered. I thought it premiered on the 26th. Um, you might be right. Yeah, I think I'm right. One of those show. That's the day the show premiered. I thought it premiered on the 26th. You might be right.

It's one of those days. But it's the day Cousin Sal is on the show. We may be back into the past a little bit. Cousin Sal for second segment or do you go top segment? You just trump the celeb with him. No, no. Cousin Sal is the second guest.

Even cousins are subject to publicists. you go top segment. You just trump the celeb with him. No, no. Cousin Sal is a second guest. Yeah, he's even cousins get are subject to publicists. Well, he told the story in the book about when he almost got impaled by a nail when he was pillow fighting Bill Goldberg, which was a terrifying, terrifying night. Yeah, it was a terrifying night. I mean, Goldberg, though, was pretty good humored.

There were a couple of guys that were not who sal had pillow fights with who were just like yeah i'm gonna knock his head off i think lennox lewis was none too amused by sal's shenanigans as i recall and um also what the most dangerous thing sal did on the show was staff update where he would study our coworkers. And this is, this is, we, thank God the statue of limitations is, is passed because if this went on today where he would find out like who was sleeping together on staff and who hooked up once. Yeah. And then he would read through a list of these things on the show. It would cause a just volcano for weeks afterwards that I would have to like settle down.

And once everything was settled down, he'd come back on and do it again. I can't tell you how terrifying it was. First of all, it was live television. Yes. And he would go on and it would, and you didn't, it was almost like the gossip report of the show. And everyone who worked for the show was completely terrified, mortified that they were going to end up on this thing.

And then, you know, there were some skeletons because it was a, it was a show that taped from nine to 10 and then everybody would go in the green room after. So stuff happened and Sal was just absorbing everything. You know what the worst thing he did, which was also one of the best things he did but the show was live and i don't know if you remember this but we used to do something called celebrity in a box which was kind of a forerunner to the mass singer except for there was no singing we just had a big cardboard box with a little mouth hole cut out. And we put the box out

on the boulevard and the celebrity was in it. And it was basically 20 questions. You know, you had to guess who the celebrity was. And at the end of, and it was supposed to run through the whole show and the guests would play along. And, you know, it was a lot of our plan for the hour. And Sal would be out there with a microphone to hold the microphone up to the celebrity and i asked one question at the very beginning of the monologue and again this was supposed to live show supposed to take us through a whole hour of television content and sal revealed who it was immediately he goes no it's i don't remember who it was it was some like seamless starlist star. He's like, no. And then the guy like took the box off and he was confused. And he's like, okay.

It was like Lorenzo Lamas or something. And it was over. And I couldn't stop laughing because I knew Sal did it just to screw me. And now I would have to tap dance the whole rest of the show. This is a national television show. All our careers are on the line. And he's just fucking with me on it. It's kind of amazing it was live.

Looking back how poorly that should have gone. Yeah. And did frequently. But never in a way that actually caused something bad. How do you measure success nowadays when it's like the, the ratings, there's so much stuff, people watch it the next day,

or they'll just watch the clips or they're like my son who's seen probably every prank you've ever done at this point on YouTube, but does not watch the show live. So how do you even met? Cause like you were winning the 18 to 49, which 15, 16 years ago, we would have been throwing a parade on Hollywood Boulevard. But now it's like that's one piece. And then there's YouTube news and Twitter. And I don't even understand it. Well, it's funny. The old media is still focused on the Nielsen ratings, but they don't really mean anything anymore.

Because we've reached the point now where we put the show on youtube before it even airs on on television so right um you know so it's just kind of like silly to look at it like that because maybe you get like two million people watching the show at night and then i wake up in the morning and another two million people have already watched the monologue and then sometimes they go on to get eight million ten million views views. And they're from all around the world, not just the United States. And so it's a totally different thing. It's interesting because now you can just look at a number. You can count how many views you've got, which is everything else is an estimate and not necessarily accurate. I think Nielsen's methodology is really antiquated.

It's like one person equals like 12,000 viewers or something like that. So I don't know. I always measure success by just like how I feel at the end of the show. And for me, I want the show to be good from the beginning to the end. And if there's something in it that isn't good, I feel bummed out about the show afterwards. But yeah, it used to be in the old days where we were just kind of swinging wildly in the dark where, you know, we'd have like some weird home run once every two and a half weeks and we'd all be buoyed by that. But it's nicer to just have a lot of doubles.

You know, that's it's I'd rather be Tony Gwynn than Dave Kingman. You know what I'm saying? It's weird. The time slot is a hundred times less essential than it used to be. And we always joke about, cause sometimes we'll, there's this one Twitter account. That's good. Retro news that I have bookmarked where they have, uh, yeah, it's great. They'll have like TV ratings from 1976. And we'll just talk about like, Oh my God, like 18 million people watched welcome back. Connor. It's like more than the Super Bowl now. You think like Carson back then probably had, you know, nine, 10 million people watching on a Monday night. But in a weird way, your show reaches more people now because of the

digital thing where you can reach people in like, what, 150, 200 countries? Yeah, it's interesting. Every once in a while, I get to see the breakdown. And it's like, I think about half of our views on YouTube are in the United States. And then Canada is the second. But then it's really like crazy. And I have to say, it's kind of exciting when you see, because I think I was, a couple of weeks ago,

I was looking at like something, I don't know, like 60,000 people in Finland watched my monologue. And I was like, well, that's kind of great. I mean, I've never been to Finland and I wonder if like people would know who I was in Finland. Like, you know, it's just weird to think that people in Finland, but I guess that's kind of like the power of the United States that, um, you know, we maybe feel has been diminished, but at least from an entertainment standpoint, I mean, we are this hugely influential force in this country and late night television, you know, people love to talk about Johnny Carson

in those days, but you know, if you, if you add it all up, our shows between the CBS shows, NBC, and then you got, you know, the daily Show and you've got Conan and these shows. It's like there are far more people watching late night television now than there ever were back then. Yeah, it feels that way. I guess the difference would be when like when we were growing up, we were all experiencing whatever the show was either at the exact same time. Yeah. Or you missed it. You missed it.

Yeah. Yeah. Or you missed it. You missed it. Yeah. Yeah. And then when the VHS showed up, and I think we got VHSs probably right around the same time in the early 80s, the ability to like tape Letterman and watch it the next morning and stuff like that was so crucial. And the worst thing that would happen to me was if I tape it,

but we had aluminum foil for an antenna on our television. And if it got out of whack, you'd get nothing but static. And that was just the biggest disappointment. You think you're going to see something you're looking forward to and you get just static. And sometimes I just watched the static because you could kind of hear what Dave was saying. You know, it's so funny. I used to have different tapes and I think you did some of this too, where I would have like the, I had the first like three or four Letterman anniversary tapes. I have them right now.

I probably get them there. They're right in a box right there. And I'd make labels for them. Oh yeah. I did the same thing. And it was like, I can't lose these ever. Yeah. You know, it'd be like, Hey, what be like, hey, my house is on fire.

What are the five things I'm grabbing? I would have been like, all right, I'm going to grab my best basketball cards, the Letterman tapes. And I wish somebody had told me like, hey, dude, about 2015, they're all going to be on this thing called YouTube. It's fine.

Don't sweat it. They're all coming back. Don't worry about it. It is funny because I taped every one and about year six I realized that each show was almost the same as the year past because they just keep all the highlights from past years and add a couple

from that year. And it almost felt like a rerun a lot of the times. The Vince McMahon Bob Costas one is still like the greatest hour and a half. Oh, that was the elevator races. And yeah, I remember specifically Dave said to Vince McMahon, who was just a complete stooge, you know, he said,

is that a rented tux? Yes. Very, very sincerely. Everyone laughed at him. And I remember being a kid and thinking like, Oh, it must be low class to rent a tux. very sincerely. Everyone laughed at him. And I remember being a kid and thinking like, oh, it must be low class to rent a car. You know, one of the things about you is you've become friends

with I think every childhood hero you've had. Right? Is there any box you haven't checked? Letterman? You have a relationship with? I would like to have sex

with Madonna, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. I would rule that out. I wouldn't rule that out. I wouldn't. Listen, I, you know, I try not to bother these guys. The only guy, the only one who I really have like a ton of interaction with is Huey Lewis, I think.

Yeah. Well, you like actually like vacation with them and stuff. Yeah, yeah. We stay at his house and we go fishing and stuff like that. But yeah, it's pretty great. I mean, I... And Martin Short also is another guy that I have a lot of communication with. But I just get nervous, you know.

Every once in a while, I'll have some communication with Dave and I'm just terrified the whole time. And I'm afraid that I'm just terrified the whole time. I'm afraid that I'm going to say something stupid or something that will make him think less of me. Then if I hang up the phone, I'm relieved. Then there are a few friends from high school that I will call immediately

and say, I just spoke to Dave. I'm like, no. It seems like his post-TV show life has been a lot happier and probably more satisfying than what we heard about Carson post his life. Where it seemed like Carson was just in Malibu. He was like four divorces in. Yeah. And had like all kinds of lung issues and just didn't seem like it was a very happy post TV life.

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, you know, Johnny used to drink a lot and he smoked a lot, so that probably didn't help. Yeah, that's fun every once in a while, but not something you want to do on a nightly basis. Different times. Before we go, the LA sports renaissance,

I don't like it. I just want to tell you that. Dodgers, Lakers, my Clippers. They're not my Clippers. Stop it. Oh, now they're not your Clippers anymore. How are they my Boston fan? Oh my God. Do you or do you not have season tickets for the Clippers?

I do have season tickets. I like going to see live basketball. Although it certainly hasn't happened for about a year. Don't, you know what? I'm going to leave this on. I'm going to leave this to your readers to dig up your your clipper mania that you as you adopted them when you came out to los angeles please don't

don't try what are you talking about clipper mania again i will leave this to the masses to settle um i've been a very busy man i've got to try to figure out what Donald Trump is doing in his bedroom in Florida No, you expected big things for the Clippers and I always said to you, they're the Clippers it's just the Clippers you can't get around being the Clippers it's like being George Costanza it's just what it is

You told me, you warned me, and you were correct Do you have a farewell Tommy Lasorda story? Yes, I have 12 of them. Okay, here we go. Well, first of all, the greatest thing Tommy Lasorda used to say, and he'd say it over and over again, is somebody said, like, why did you play

Mike Socia instead of Steve Yeager in the World Series? Is it because he's Italian? And I didn't play him because he's Italian. I played him because I'm Italian. But you remember, you probably remember that night. Tommy was on our show. It was early in the run of the show.

The show was live. Tommy was our second guest, and I was pretty excited to have him on. And I carved out a big chunk of time for him, like 10 minutes, which is unusual for a second guest. I wanted to give Tommy the respect and time that I felt he deserved. And then we talked for a while and it went well. And then after Tommy, there was a comedian on the show who had a lot of foul and unkind things to say about President Bush. And he was so pissed off. He was just spitting mad, so angry, like the kind of anger that we've seen in press conferences and we've heard about from his former players.

After the show, they come to me and they go, and I'm sure this doesn't happen with any other host. But they, of course, came to me like, Tommy's really upset. You need to go, and I'm sure this doesn't happen with any other host, but they of course came to me like, Tommy's really upset. You need to go in there and talk to him. And I went in and Tommy yelled at me and he's like, I was in the world. I mean, he just went on and on and on about how I did not give him enough time

and how could I put that comedian on when I should have been talking to him. And he was yelling and cursing and it went on for like 15 minutes and then he took like a breath and I was like I'm so sorry Tommy I really wanted you to have a good time I feel really bad and you know hopefully we can do this again and then he start up again and the whole thing happened again it was like the slowly I turn Niagara Falls catch the point where I and this is not an exaggeration

or a joke or whatever i started i went oh these motherfuckers this is a prank and i started looking around the room for where you guys had hidden the cameras and uh and tommy's yelling and i'm looking in like the planter and like, I'm looking around the shelf trying to find the camera, which was not, they weren't that small at the time. And I found no camera and I realized that it was not a prank. He was just yelling. You were just in hell with Tommy Lasorda. I was just in a loop of hell. And after that, I thought, well,

that's it for Tommy Lasorda. I mean, he is really mad at me and he does not like me at all. Next time I saw him, he couldn't have been nicer. He was just like, he was as friend. I mean, he is really mad at me and he does not like me at all. Next time I saw him, he couldn't have been nicer. He was just like, he was as friend. I mean, it was as if it never happened. I mean, he hugged me. He, you know, I had many experiences with him after that. Um, and, uh, you know, he was, there'll never be anybody like him again. I mean, he was just funny. Every fucking bit of him was funny funny he cut guys while he was taking a shit on the toilet his pants down around his ankles and he called these guys in the locker room and told them they were going down to the minors i think maybe like he knew like that's the i mean

like if ever you want to leave i guess that's's the time. Tommy's shitting. Definitely. That's when you really want to get out of there. What do you think if somebody went on YouTube and they wanted to find the greatest prank you've ever played on the show, what would you tell them to go find? Is it the Mickey, the wax thing of you on Cousin Mickey or no? That's not even the top Mickey prank. Actually. I mean, that one was great made for TV, but I took her on a journey of psychological

torture, uh, a month ago. Oh, that was a good, yeah, that was great. Which I, which it's a long story, but she bought a house from a woman and she was so grateful to this woman. She told this woman, anytime you want to come back, if you want to have Christmas here, we'd love to have woman. She told this woman, anytime you want to come back, if you want to have Christmas here, we'd love to have you. And this is my cousin Mickey for real. She's like the nicest person in the world. And I made up a fake email address and I waited like five years and I strung her along. And yeah, that's worth looking up. It's on YouTube. It's a prank on cousin Mickey. It was last month. But by the way, that prank said as much about cousin, about you as it did about cousin Mickey,

that you took this morsel that she gave about inviting the person back to the house and you just put it in your back pocket for years. You waited like fucking Michael Myers waiting to go back to Haddonfield and then finally unleashed it, created an email address and started torturing her. The nicest person on the earth. That's what I do. And the other one, the one that is one that I've been wanting to do since I was a child. And I really, I remember, and I swear to God, I had this thought. I hope that one day I have enough money that I could do this was when we repainted aunt chippy's house went to las vegas painted her house um orange and green painted the shrubs and she just went

absolutely fucking berserk and it is it is it is one of the great in fact last night she my mom called me this morning last night aunt chippy had a dream that I turned her car over in her driveway. And probably woke up thinking it was real. She did, yeah. And so that's the kind of psychological damage that I want to be remembered for. Well, check out those Mickey Pranks, people listening. All right, so Cousin Sal's book, it's available. And when is he going to be on your show?

You can't lose them all. He's on the show next week. I think next Wednesday is the day. He's on as a guest. He's on regularly, but rarely is he sitting in the chair. And we will be back in studio next week. So I will have to deal with him in the chair. What does that mean, back in studio? Well, I've been in my house for the last... No, but I mean, when you're doing it in studio, how many people are in the studio? Well, I've been in my house for the last... No, but I mean, when you're doing it in studio, how many people are in the studio? It depends. If the guests want to come in, we make sure they get tested and then they come in. There's no audience. It's just the crew.

It's just me and the crew. Oh, all right. Well, congrats on everything. Congrats on getting through the last four years alive and intact. Yeah. Well, I fear it's not over, but we'll see, I guess. All right. Good to see you. Thanks. Well, I fear it's not over, but we'll see, I guess. All right. Good to see you. Thanks. Good to see you too. What's the feeling of fall? It's finally catching the sunrise. And not because you woke up early. No, you woke up nice and late. And you know what? The sun waited. Then you went and got what you love from Starbucks, the new pecan crunch oat latte and new baked apple croissant and enjoyed that warm apple filling and those nutty flavors with rich brown buttery notes while the sun rose just for you. That's the feeling of fall and it's only at Starbucks. This episode is brought to you by Coca-Cola Creations.

You love the taste of Coca-Cola and love the cookie crunch of Oreos. But what happens when the best drink and the best cookie in the world get together? The best becomes besties. Try the new Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Oreo Limited Edition. Besties for a limited time. Taste it while it lasts. Copyright 2024. The Coca- it lasts. Copyright 2024. The Coca-Cola Company. Copyright 2024. Mondelez International Group. All right. Million Dollar

Picks Championship Round Edition. Peter Schrager is here from Good Morning Football and Fox coverage and more importantly, the good luck charm of Million Dollar Picks. I don't know. This goes in the first sentence of your legacy now. You've come on three straight weeks. All we've done is win. Last week, we won $1.585 million. We're up now $1.5 million for the season.

In the playoffs, we are 5-0 on our big playoff bets. We're 7-3 against the spread, but all three teams that lost all won the game. So we had the team they just didn't cover. We are up $2.812 million over the last three weeks. That's unbelievable. Not bad.

It's great. And do you get the feeling that people who listen to this podcast root with you or against you? Because I get so many texts from people who listen and they're like, you guys are hitting all your bets and oh, F you guys. I'm like, I don't make any money off this thing. But do you get the feeling that the listeners to this podcast root for Bill Simmons or root against him on Million Dollar Fix? Well, what we don't want is we don't want the mushes to join us this week. So they can stay

away. If you're losing, don't stay in the way. I also, I really liked round one and I really liked round two. I think round three is, is really, really hard. And I'm not even sure I want to finish the year positive. We might go a little conservative this week. And before we talk about these games, let's go backwards. Yeah. Um, biggest surprise for you in round two, I've had five days to think about this. I think my biggest surprise was how close the Browns were to winning that game with or without Mahomes. The fact that we had that Higgins touchdown overturned. Just in general, they were really in that game and they were able to move the ball up and down the field and do some things. And I don't know how to translate that moving forward this week

to the Bills, how the Chiefs looked last week. I'd be patient with it because I felt the same way, and I felt like they were going to lose that game at the end. But then you think back, end of the first half, the Chiefs are up 19-3. Butker had missed two field goals, and Mahomes was hobbled. That third-and-one option play, it's almost like they were tempting karma, knowing why you're running the ball. So they were cruising there for a while

and if fucker makes those field goals maybe it's not a game and then if my home stays in but they had their shot at the end and i know you and cousin sal had a big debate on it we did on our show me and burleson about that rule and everyone says change that rule the touchback rule like it's the one rule everyone universally hates i say absolutely not. The entire league is just rewarding offense. They know that rule. Everyone knows that rule. And I can tell you, Belichick coaches it, McVay coaches it, that if you even try to extend, if anything less than a two-point conversion or fourth down, you even try to extend on that thing, you get penalized internally. So for Higgins to do that it either tells me

a he just got too excited and he went for it b they don't coach it as hard or c it's it's a failure from both sides like to me that's it you know the rule it's the rule and you've got to just use every bit of resistance not to outstretch that ball because time and time again it has burned teams in the twitter era, people just love getting mad about stuff and yelling that things should be changed and not offering any alternatives. It's like change the rule, change the rule, change it to what? To what? What's, is he supposed to get the ball back at the one yard line because he fumbled it out of bounds and in the end zone, there's no alternative. It has to be a touchback for the other team.

It's so stupid. Why are we arguing about this? And then I made the case. I said, you know, I did this whole thing. And then I got a text from a head coach, a defensive head coach. And he goes, well, why don't we just give the ball back to the offense every time there's an interception? Or every time there's a fumble recovery, just hand it back to the offense. Right. Every time we do this, it's like, let's get the more points and score. It's like literally the only rule that can benefit defense.

And I mean, you could say Sorensen's hit was dirty. That's fine. But it was a hell of a hit. He fumbled it. And that's what happens. That's the sport. It's been the rule forever. And you need to know the rules.

So to me, that was my thing. My big surprise, though. By the way, how about this? Don't fumble the ball into the end zone. Don't do it. Hold on. Yeah. The rule is if you fumble it out of the end zone,

the other team gets the ball. So maybe don't do that. Anyway, I'm sorry. Go ahead. My big surprise was the nightcap on Sunday. And I hate to be so negative, but I came on this podcast and last week I was like, I just don't know if the Saints have enough offensive firepower.

It's so, it's so, it's tough to do it because everyone wanted to do the sentimental goodbye to Drew Brees. They had no shot. The Saints could not win with that quarterback in the second half. And that was my surprise, just how quickly he fell off a cliff. And if we're talking Bucks Packers in a little bit, don't forget how bad Drew Brees was and how close that game was.

And if Drew Brees makes one or two plays in the fourth quarter, that game goes differently. Drew Brees, I don't think he necessarily wants to put that game in his hall of fame reel. By that same token, don't forget how close the Saints were. They're going over midfield when Cook gets stripped. You're right. And that's one of the reasons I have so much trouble with that game. If Cook just holds on to the ball there, it's probably 23-13. Yeah, and third and 11 on their own 20. Brady in a 20-20 game with 14 minutes left in the fourth quarter throws a laser back shoulder to Tyler Johnson, who's got 12 catches on the year, and he makes maybe the all-time greatest catch in Buccaneers history.

And it does it, completes it. Those things happen in a game. I'm not holding it against the Buccaneers history. And it does it, completes it. Those things happen in a game. I'm not holding it against the Buccaneers. If anything, it was great. But it's easy to see that final score and it's easy to come away from that game and be like, wow, the Buccaneers are red hot and they're rolling.

I actually felt Fournette ran the wrong way on that one running play. I felt like there's mistakes on special teams if Deontay Harris doesn't get injured. Drew Brees and that arm is what really kept that team from finding their way into the NFC Championship game. Cook being sloppy.

Taysom Hill not being there. Harris getting hurt early. Brees hit the wall and you could see it. And just the way he carried himself the last few weeks, clearly wasn't right. Then we find out after the game that Michael Thomas needs surgery on 17 different parts of his body. So that I thought the Michael Thomas thing was like the guys,

a malcontent, um, you know, this is the kind of stuff that happens when somebody is playing their selves at it. And then you find out like, Oh, he just wanted to be there for,

for Drew Brees. And not only have one injury, he had three. So then you go back and you think about it and you go, wow. So they had a completely compromised Michael Thomas. They had a quarterback who couldn't throw the

ball more than 10 yards. They had Trey Conn Smith basically as their best playmaker other than Cabrera. They had no, they're no special teams ace. And yet had a chance to go up 10, you know, midway through the second half. So that, so that, that's the hardest thing to figure out this Bucks team.

I didn't love how they played in either game, but I also think they had, they were flying on the ball. They have so many different game breakers. And when you just stack up the game breakers compared to the Packers, they have better players. I don't know if that means they're going to win, but they definitely have more blue chippers. I think the breakout player of the weekend

was Devin White in a way that I don't remember a player making a national, like, hello to everybody. So he didn't play in the wild card round because of the COVID stuff, but number 45 on the Buccaneers for two years, they have been telling me that this guy is the best linebacker in football. They're taking him fourth overall.

You know, the GM, Jason Light and I are friendly. He's calling me after he was like, when was the last time you saw a middle linebacker taking fourth overall this guy's that good like they're so excited and then he kind of was like they made moments in his rookie year he had injuries with his knee and then this year was really good but in those primetime games didn't have the game Devin White went from being like a you know a fun player for us on Twitter to talk about and for like the football fans to now being a national name

and is a wrecking ball, the kind of guy that I think is going to be the biggest X factor if they win or lose on Sunday. I researched that Packers-Bucks game a lot. I rewatched it this week. Oh, did you? I was going to ask you about it

because the Bucks killed the Packers, but then you go back, you look at it. Packers are up 10, nothing pick six, another pick where the Bucks get the ball on the two. Now it's 14, 10 and the game kind of unravels. And one of the things that it's super nerdy. I read one super nerdy football piece about it. I think it was on ESPN and they were saying how the Packers were trying to run side to side with Jones and with Dylan and the Bucks linebackers, David and, and white was just so fast. They couldn't do it. And the, the smart guy was thinking in this game, they're going to be pounding through the tackles, kind of like what the Rams did with acres. And I thought acres was able to run the ball last week.

I mean that he certainly wasn't the reason why they lost. So what else did you notice on the tape? Um, so there's a couple of really bad missed blocks by the running back. So Jamal Williams, number 30, completely whiffs on Levante David on one time. And that gets to Rogers. Rogers was under pressure the entire game. You're right. They're up 10, nothing. Rogers does a whole celebration and everyone's like, Oh my God, Rogers, he's doing the shimmy with his hips and everyone's, Oh, they're going to blow them out. The Bucks defense was relentless, and Todd Bowles just continued to send everybody and everybody,

and they really overpowered the Packers' offensive line, but also their running backs into a way that I think you're going to see a lot of different chips and different formations to try to protect Rodgers because when he has time, of course, but they were sending seven. I mean, they were sending Sean Murphy. Bunting came off on the outside at one time and got to Rodgers because when he has time, of course, but they were sending seven. I mean, they're sending Sean Murphy. Bunting came off on the outside at one time and got to Rodgers and he totally missed it.

Rewatching the game, he had Devonta Adams on a lot of deep passes. He didn't have the time to get it to him. So this game may be won or lost on whether Devin White and JPP

and those guys are breathing down his neck in two seconds or if they can't get to him in three. What about the left tackle who went out a couple of weeks ago? David Bakhtiari. Do you feel okay about the O-line without the left tackle or no?

So the guy who replaced him is a guy named Billy Turner. And this, now we're talking offensive line talk. Billy Turner has been in the league for a long time, got to Green Bay. Great dude, like big personality. And like one of these really smart guys, he's from the city of Minneapolis, came over to the Packers. and originally he was on he was playing guard then he was playing right tackle and now they're using him at left tackle and you know bakhtiar is a hundred million dollar guy i have not seen a huge drop off with turner i really haven't and it hasn't really shown up on film and it hasn't shown up with anyone talking to me about this team that wait a second they're without bakhtiar they have not missed him in a way that i think a lot of people expect that they would.

Well, we might as well just keep talking about this game. Let's do it. The Packers are favored by three. The line seems like it's inching toward three and a half, but it's not quite there yet. The money line is basically minus 120, minus 125, depending where you look. They're the number two in weighted total DVOA. 11 turnovers all season.

I looked at their wins because they, and the Packer fans, a lot of fans think I just don't like their team. I like whoever's going to win me money. I could care less who I'm betting on. You and me too. I picked the Rams on national TV last week. And let's just say, yeah, it wasn't,

it didn't go over too smoothly with some folks in green Bay, but that's how it goes. I think you thought you were getting a little more from Aaron Donald than that game though. Right. I underestimated his impact. I think with that broken rib. Yeah.

Um, well, I was looking at the Packers schedule. So their last nine wins, Houston, Jacksonville, Trubisky twice Doug Peterson

And Philly Detroit And whoever their coach Was at the time So two teams That fired their coach Right after And Houston fired their coach

And Jacksonville fired their coach Plus Trubisky twice That's six wins Carolina Game was like Pretty close Tennessee They beat

Legit That was a good game. A night game in the, in the snow. Yeah. Now Tennessee has a terrible defense and they exploited it. And then the Rams in the playoffs, a game that,

you know, it was a seven point game and golf was kind of doing the stuff. I think McVay wanted him to do. But golf certainly didn't kill them in that game. Golf exceeded expectations tenfold in that game. I think he played as well as you could imagine any quarterback with nine fingers to play. Right. And that no cup, all that game. Goff exceeded expectations tenfold in that game. I think he played as well as you could imagine any quarterback with nine fingers to play. Right.

And that no cup, all that stuff. There are three losses over that time. They got murdered by Tampa. They lost to Minnesota in a game where cook just beat him by himself. And then this is the game that I think could be the doppelganger game. If you're going against green Bay is they lose to Indy and OT by three. And Indy is kind of that way.

It's, it's kind of a poor man's version of, I think what Tampa can do if Tampa plays well, which is make some plays on D, but more importantly, the run pass combo, what we saw from playoff Lenny that last week, um, some people like Warren sharp things, Tampa is still to run heavy. But fundamentally, if Tampa plays well, that's the kind of game it'll be like the 31-28, 31-24 type game.

My point is, Green Bay is a one seed. And I think sometimes in our heads we overrate. Like, oh, they're the one seed. There were three teams that could have been the one seed until the last two weeks.

Right. And I think they probably had the easiest schedule out of the, out of the three. I don't feel like they're a traditional kick-ass awesome one seed. I'm just looking at it from a Tampa standpoint. The fact that they went to New Orleans and they won the game and they came from behind. I think that means something. I don't love the Tampa team. I think they're super sloppy,

but I wouldn't want to play him in a playoff game, especially with the Brady piece of it. And the aura that he brings to these games, I would be scared if I was a Packers fan in this game is my point. A couple of things. First of all, you're spot on about the Packers and they had the easiest strength of schedule in the entire league this year. Easiest when it was all said and done, the records against their opponents was easiest, which is something to be said. But they can only drive the car, the keys that they're given. I'm not going to hold it against them. The thing with Tampa, and I've been saying this to you all these weeks,

and it started at the bye week. It came on after they lost to the Chiefs. And then when they came out and just absolutely annihilated the Lions, and they wanted to put up 80 on the Lions to make a statement on a random NFL Network Saturday game against, you know, no coach and seven different assistants who had never picked up a clipboard, is that they've got this young team and there's like this really confident swagger.

And then you match that with the Brady factor. So their defensive backfield, which is a bunch of guys who you might not have heard of before this year and Sean Murphy bunting and Jamel Dean and, and the Carlton Davis, they call themselves the grave diggers. And they're like this like wild bunch of all young guys under the age of 25. And they are not scared of anyone or anything. And they tweet a lot and they Instagram a lot. And they've got like, it's, it's, it almost like reminds me of, I don't know, like the bad boys pistons or something where it's like,

they don't know anybody, like they're going to play this game and you're going to have to deal with it. And they take a lot of risks. They get beat. As you saw the Trey Kwan Smith play, like they were all over the place and they got caught up in coverage. They do get beat, but they're aggressive. They hit. And I can tell you, they're not, there's not going to be a fear factor of Aaron Rodgers, which I think is a huge deal. A lot of guys go into Lambeau young player. Oh my gosh, I'm covering Devante Adams. These guys, they don't

know any better. They think, and maybe they are, they think they're up to the task to stop Devante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. And I know that. I think it's beyond a lack of a fear factor. I think they're going to like be relishing this. Like, let's go get this guy. We beat this guy in October. Let's go beat him again. I'm with you. Like they have, they have playmakers all over the place, which I think you need.

And they fly like Devin White runs like a 4-4-40. And then on the other side is David and neither of these guys get any respect because for the last decade, you know, Tampa Bay is on the seventh Fox game or Tampa Bay is on the eighth CBS game and they're playing at one o'clock and they're playing against the Jaguars and no one's watching. And Levante David for eight years has been maybe the best linebacker at his position, but you would never say that other than looking at the stats and saying, well, PFF says this, and they have a lot of tackles. And Levante David for eight years has been maybe the best linebacker at his position.

But you would never say that other than looking at the stats and saying, well, PFF says this, and they have a lot of tackles. This is finally their moment for so many of these guys that have been there. And they're all kind of blossoming and flourishing together on defense. It's a cool deal. And then they've got these guys up front who are just like, so we didn't mention his name yet but let's first say sue who has history with rogers and you know that rogers does not like sue and rogers and sue have had battles but like even this past year they had a little something in that game i watched it back sue's

not not a fan of rogers by any means there's no love lost there jpp who has beaten uh aaron rogers in a playoff game in lambeau he's done that But the X factor might be that big son of a gun in the middle who has not played at all in the last two months who might be dressing. And that's Vita Bea. No, he's, he's playing. They were saying today. Yeah. It's happening.

This is a major thing. That guy's really good. All right. So he, he might come in like literally bill. I don't know. He might come in 40 pounds over his playing weight i have no idea he's one of these huge guys but he might be the best run stuffing defensive tackle in all of sports and like you just plot him in the middle if you get 20 to 30 plays i don't you

know his injury if he plays through it and he will um all expectations are he's been practicing it's a total game changer because now you can't just do the aaron jones up the middle you can't just do the aj dylan and expect him to do it like vita veil will eat you alive he's that big and he's that dominant run stopper up front and i think it's a huge x factor that might be on the injury report a lot of people aren't talking about well so we just listed two things that might be in tampa's favor one is they actually might be able to stop the run because their linebackers are fast enough. They can stuff the middle. We already know they can get pressure on Rodgers because they did it.

We saw them last week. I know Breeze, you know, that was a pretty compromised version of Breeze, but they were in him, in his face and around him that whole game. And I'm just looking,

I'm looking at this like, if I bet either way, how unhappy am I if dot, dot, dot happens. Right. And if you're watching this game and you're like, fuck, they can't block the bucks. Shit. Aaron Jones can't find any space. And then it's like, all right, it's gotta be Rogers and Adams. And it's gotta be, you know, know, somebody else getting open or whatever. I just, it makes me nervous. Here's the flip side. Yeah.

The Bucs are sloppy. Oh my gosh. So many. They're just not efficient at all. They can't help themselves. They are not like a 17 play, 80 drive team. They're like feast or famine, big plays. And they do some of the dumbest shit.

Like some of the third downs last week were absolutely idiotic. Third and one touch passes down 40 yards. You get that big run from Ronald Jones who's playing hurt. And then you get the flag because an offensive lineman held. And then you get the late hits from Jensen and Marpet. And you're like, I like the toughness. I like all that.

But like, big fella, don't come barreling into a defender on third down. And so we get a late hit, like no need for that. And then Fournette, which everyone looks at the stats and it's like, oh, playoff Lenny. He had this great game. He was so clutch. He had moments. He went the wrong way on a handoff from Brady at one point,

which could have been a colossal turnover. Like, right. And you know, they're just, there is a lot of, a lot of wiggle room with the efficiency. They don't run like a Patriots-Brady team. It's a little different. It doesn't feel like they're ever fully lockstep right there. And that's been the word on the street with the people that, you know,

by proxy can find out what Brady thinks about stuff. And I think the thing with him is like he knows how talented they are, but it's not an efficient team like the best pass teams he's been on. And it's a frustrating team to be a quarterback of, cause he just got there. They barely practiced. He's still trying to find a rhythm with all these dudes and you can feel it. It's a choppy offense. The X factor. And I'm going to go into story mode a little bit. It's just how, how, how freaking happy he is right now. And he's on a different plane of happiness. And I know Patriots fans hear this and they might cringe, but like, it's a whole different deal.

And I got a cool story this week that I didn't know until now. I guess at the Combine there was, which is February, and it's not legal to start courting free agents until March when free agency starts. But the Combine, the Buccaneers guys were all sitting together in a room and it's all the front office.

And it's Jason Light, the GM, and it's spy tech who's their pro scout and then it's got mikey greenberg who does their salary cap and they're all sitting there and they're like is there a chance we can get brady and aaron's in the room and they're like look we're hearing all sorts of stuff if there's a chance there's brady what we have to do is make sure that we surround him with everything he could possibly want and make our pitch when we're ready and they're looking at the roster and it's like evans godwin a young offensive line and they go through the defense they're like veterans who've been there with jpp and sue they've got all these young players like no state taxes warm weather and they're looking at arians and they're like

a coach who's gonna let brady do as he pleases. He's not going to bust his balls. And they kind of were like, you know, and it sounds ridiculous, but they were like, if, if we build it, he will come. And they called it operation shoeless Joe. That was what they called it. Like that is what we're going by. And their entire focus was on let's get the pitch in order. So when there was an ability to talk to him and talk to Don Yee, his agent, and kind of get into it, they laid it out there. And they were kind of like, Alex Guerrero, your guy who might have been persona non grata at points in New England, not only is he welcomed, but we're going to treat him like gold.

And it's going to be a red carpet. We're going to have the best schools for your kids, whatever you need, everything, it's all here and it's sunshine and it's happiness. And he got there and there was choppy at first, first but like if you saw his face after the interview with aaron um andrews on fox like he's got a smile ear to ear and i know he was always happy when he won in new england but like it feels like that happiness factor might be emanating around that entire team and it's kind of like now it's house money we're're not the, we're the second, second game in a row. We won on the road.

Now we're going up to Lambeau. No one really is picking us. Like that stuff is real with that team. Last week was turf. This week isn't. Yeah. I do feel like, uh,

they have a bunch of vets who understand the significance of this game in a good way. You know, Sue has Sue even played in a Super Bowl? I don't think he has. He was with the Rams when they went a couple years ago. Oh, that's right. You're right.

But he hasn't won. Hasn't won, but the fact he's been there is a cool deal for them. You know? Yeah. And then just a whole bunch of people on both sides of the ball. Some young guys who probably are too young and dumb to realize what the moment is, I think outside of Gronk, Ryan Jensen had started one game in the playoffs for the Ravens.

And then AB of course was in a playoff game in Fournette, but all summer long, it was only Gronk and that one game from Jensen from the offense, besides Brady, who had ever played in a playoff game. So they were all just like, all right, like whatever. And now they're thrown into the championship round. Well, one thing to keep in mind, and we'll get back to this when we actually do million dollar picks.

So right now in Fandle, it's taping this at 2.40 Pacific time. Tampa's plus three, but they're plus 106. If you bet $100 on it and they cover, you cover the plus 106. So the question for me is as we as we know from the playoff manifesto in the playoff manifesto there's no real rules that apply this week i think these matchups are so good these matchups are great yeah there's no there's no weird shit going on this is just four good teams do i think the underdog has a chance to win if you're taking the underdog you have to feel like they have a chance to win. If you're taking the underdog, you have to feel like they have a chance to win. I feel like they have a chance to win.

Is this a three-point game? Could either team win? Yeah. And that's what I keep coming back to. I think Tampa has a chance to win, and I'm getting three. I'm torn because, A, before the season, I said, Buccaneers-Chiefs was my

Super Bowl pick, and you kind of hold on to that with a stubbornness of, if that was my pick, I want to be right. And then we get to you and I doing this. You did the bills bucks parlay back in week 16. You talked me into it. Yeah. And it's like, we're a game away. And then there's this factor, which we haven't even talked about them yet. He is so freaking dialed in right now on the other side of the ball. Rodgers. It just might be he and Adams, and it just might be just, why would you ever bet against a guy as dialed in as he is? The gap in talent between what they saw last week in Drew Brees and what they're seeing this week in Aaron Rodgers cannot be underestimated.

Rodgers is playing so well. He and LeFleur are so dialed in. And last week, I tried to make this whole thing about Ramsey and Adams, Ramsey. And the first time they got Ramsey in man-to-man coverage was on that goal line play. They ran Adams one time in motion. They ran him another time in motion. They got Ramsey caught up. Rodgers didn't even look at him. It was like a no-look pass right from hike touchdown. They speak the same language. They don't have any hiccups. You might be kicking yourself afterwards if you're like, oh my God,, Rogers, he wasn't going to lose this game at home.

Finally in an NFC championship game with the way he's playing to pick against him would be ridiculous. He's the best player in the world right now. A lot of people like the Packers would be the other thing to be afraid of. Like Joe house likes the Packers. That's always a bad sign. Whenever Joe house likes somebody, it's a bad one. But flip side, betting against Rodgers, it's like you're betting against the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady. Granted, he's 43. Not the same sign, but it is one of those where either way you go, you're going to be

mad at yourself if it's not going the right way. We're going to talk Bill's Chiefs in a second. We'll take a break. Take back your free time with PC Express Online grocery delivery and pickup. Score in-store promos, PC Optimum points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't.

And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL is best. They're all on prime. Prime Monday Night Hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. All right, Bill's Chiefs. So the line is

Casey by three, and now it is getting close to three o'clock Pacific time. As soon as Mahomes comes back, I assume this line will go to Chiefs three and a half. Right now, it's still three. Here's the thing with Mahomes. It's not just a concussion.

Well, that's the whole thing, dude. We saw the foot thing. He wasn't the same. And I was scared betting on them against the Browns where it's like, oh shit, Mahomes is on one leg. This is bad. That's the whole thing. I'm not a neurologist, whatever it's called.

I don't do the concussion stuff, and it's really dangerous territory to start speculating on what's going on upstairs. From what I gather, I would be more concerned. He's, I think he's going to play if he goes through the protocol, which he is, and we have 48 hours or whatever, and he's going to be cleared. And let's assume he does. He didn't look like himself the entire first half. And he was, he did that weird, like crow hop, like walk to the huddle every time, that Mahomes walk where it doesn't look comfortable. And even when he was running out into the tunnel

after getting hit like that, I'm like, whoa, slow down. They're saying it's his big toe on his left foot. And even if he's cleared concussion protocol and even if he's cleared with his foot, that's going to be a nagging thing all game long. That gives me a little hesitation just going and saying, well, I'm not betting against the Chiefs. Remember he had two throws

where he had a guy wide open on the left and each one was a Cam Newton line drive off the ground. And after the second one, Romo said his foot's bothering him. That's a throw he normally makes. That's when you can't push off your foot.

That's what happens. I don't think his foot's going to be better this week. So you have banged up my homes with the screwed up left foot. Who's not going to have the same mobility coming off concussion. That makes me nervous. It really does. I don't, I don't. And on top of that, going against a Buffalo team that I really liked that I was convinced going into the playoffs, had a chance to, to win the Superbowl. And the thing with them didn't look great in round one. We talked about it.

That was a lot of weird stuff going on there. The Colts played great. There was some weird field position shit. Um, and yet they pulled it out last week. I thought Alan missed a bunch of throws in the first half. I actually thought the plays they were calling day ball must've been like, oh my God, we've called it. Yeah, they were there and he just missed them and didn't play well.

It was windy, but their defense was way better. And it was a respectable, you know, I feel like they were going to win that game regardless. They were the better team. They were the better team. But their offense was an explosive. My question for you, does this team have a kick-ass offensive

performance in them in January? Because I feel like it does. We haven't seen it. And Cleveland laid the breadcrumbs last week. They did. My home's point, the foot is one thing. Sammy Watkins hasn't played. They're hoping he's back.

Clyde Edwards-Hilaire has not played. They're hoping he's back. And Bersilaire has not played they're hoping he's back and Bershad Breeland who's their number one corner and who would be in charge of likely covering Stephon Diggs he went out with an injury too last week so you're coming in with three big question marks as for the Bills I'm spot on agreeing with you that all November and December Josh Allen was doing things that were in the same conversation as Rodgers and Mahomes. And absent a few passes that he had to Gabriel Davis along the sideline in that Colts win in that first half at the end, where it was just insane passes that Davis was converting, we have not seen that Josh Allen performance.

And we have not seen the guy that was in the MVP conversation. If he has to be that guy, which I think he will against Kansas City, can Josh Allen have an all-time performance and that offense put up 30, 40 points if they need to? That's the question. Especially after last week where Daybol, everyone was crushing him for it. I thought it took courage

and I thought it was the right game plan. They were like, this is how we're gonna win the game. We're gonna pass the ball. We can't run the ball. That's just not what we're gonna do against Baltimore is what helps us most. So 19 of the first 20 plays were passing plays. That's what they are. And guess what? Earlier this season, there was two different games where Dayball called eight straight runs. So it's not like he can't or he doesn't.

That's what it took. It's going to be an awesome game. I cannot wait for this game. And yet you're going to need to have an all-time performance from that Bills offense. We haven't seen that the first two weeks. Yeah, it's a little like the Bucks thing. They seem choppy in the same way. Although they did have a 96-yard drive in week one. I guess I'd feel better about it if they had Zach Moss

because I feel like he made them more malleable. Singletary, who I like, but he's missing that little edge of that move. The chains kind of edge. He's like that one of those shifty, whatever, but I wish they had like that pounder and they just don't have that anymore. Did you,

did you, I mean, they played in week six also, and that game is a complete outlier to both teams seasons. Yeah. That was a weird one. I would throw it out because I watched it back and it's Clyde Edwards. Hde edwards hilarious carried the ball 30 times for 161 yards and two touchdowns the leading receiver for the chiefs was demarcus robinson and the bills just alan went 14 of 28

for 120 yards and you know just terrible terrible and then i you know the bills from what they say and there's been a ton of media about it after that game they kind of had that come to jesus moment they're like we just got blown out by the titans we just got blown out by the chiefs what are we and minus the hill mary they have not lost a game since so i would throw that game out out the window i think them they're kind of a not only a different team, but Allen seems to just be in a totally different place than he was that game.

I guess the question for me is, does this Bills team have greatness in them? Because I felt like leaving the regular season, there were some real signs that this team was potentially special. Even week 17, when they're playing for nothing, it's Miami, and they're just like, fuck it, and they just beat the shit

out of Miami anyway. Their offense. Yeah. And their offense had some, some weeks this year where they just completely like they demolished Seattle. Yeah. You know, and 40 points on the Rams. So I look at the chiefs. I don't think the chiefs have a very good defense that I know.

I know we do this dance with them every year. And then when it really matters, they can get stops. But Cleveland was, that, that was a deceiving, what did they end up with? 17 points? 17 points,

but they were moving the ball and yeah, they, they had their, you thought fumble out of the end zone. Yeah. Yeah.

Um, I don't know. I just feel like you can move the ball on them and it seems like this is the, in a weird way, the easiest matchup for the Bills offense out of the three. You have Arrowhead. I just feel like you can move the ball on them. And it seems like this is the, in a weird way, the easiest matchup for the bills offense out of the three,

you have arrowhead. I get it. It's a later game. So it's going to be cold, but they're used to that. They're playing in Buffalo, but I like this matchup for them the most. Cause I thought Cleveland laid the breadcrumbs last week.

You can move the ball. You can have drives. You can complete third and fours. There's always guys open. What about the Najoku? How many fantasy teams has he let down over the last six years? He was wide open for 230 yards. He was wide open.

I know. And then the Diggs piece, who's going to cover Diggs on the Chiefs? Yeah, so Breland is the hope. And then they've got this rookie who I think, I said it, I mean, outside of Chase Young, he might have been the best defensive rookie. This LeJarius Sneed, who seems to make a big play number 38 every game. They're hoping that he can make some plays. Here's the deal with the chiefs.

It all comes down to this. Cause I'm on this show for three hours every day for five days a week, including the off season. And we talk about the same teams and it ends up being the same chiefs conversation. And now there's this narrative that they don't win by enough points. They, you know, the Bills won eight different games by 10 points or more. The Chiefs didn't win any by 10 points or more this season. The Chiefs get lucky. They find a way at the end. And at the end of the day, it's kind of like this. They are champions.

They never lose these games and they find a way and this last week they needed third and 14 Chad Henney got him 13 yards and then when everyone figured that they would call him off sides or they would punt or they do whatever Henney completes the pass and then it's what they've done all season long to Tampa to Miami to LA Chargers the week two against Herbert they beat you and then you're left thinking if I just had a chance to get the ball back, we would have won. But they don't give you that chance. If this game is close, Mahomes always finds a way. What you're betting on with Buffalo is that they can pounce on them early

and be up by 10 points and just give it no ability for this Chiefs team to do what the Chiefs always do. What do we get from Clyde in this game? I don't know. He hasn't played in many weeks. I think he's going to dress. And I don't think... Because, I mean, the Chiefs have below average running backs.

I don't know. It has to be said. 31, Darrell Williams played well last week. Okay, he's average. He's not above average. Yeah, fun. Yeah. And then you have Mahomes,

who hasn't practiced all week, coming off a concussion, which was a bad one. I mean, he was like, he basically got clocked by Ernie Shavers the way he was like staggering around. And then he's got the bum toe too. If Mahomes was healthy, I wouldn't go against the Chiefs.

But the fact that he's not and how much we've liked the Bills this whole time, I would feel like a fool if I didn't take the Bills. But you want me to take the chiefs. I do. All right. So make the case. The case is that it's the champions who have lost one game in 25 weeks with their quarterback and they're at home and they, they've got all the juice. They've got what it takes. And they know that people are taking the bills and they're riding on that and you think there's a little nobody believes in us here and nobody believes in us from a one seed that has lost one regular season game in 23 weeks uh yeah it's not like that no but i do feel like this has been the week that everyone's doing flips for the bills mafia

and we talk about this week after week it's easy to be intoxicated by the bills thing because of how fun it is and that fan base and what they've been through and just how wonderful their quarterback is and all this stuff and it's like you almost overlook what the chiefs have done over this time it's not pretty and it's not what it used to be and it might not look but at the end of the day they win these games and andy hits the right button and they figure it out and if they lose, they lose. Gosh, it took one freak loss from the Raiders and that's the only time

we've seen them lose since last year, like week seven. I don't know. The Chiefs, they find a way and they're at home. I think that's pretty good even if Mahomes comes in not 100%. It's tough. There's one other piece here That we gotta talk about Let's go

I'm just I'd like to prepare all the Bills fans I'm gonna go there History Yeah the history piece It is sitting there It definitely was sitting there With the Browns last week right

When When the fucking Chad Henney Scramble Followed by The whatever The fumble out of bounds Like The mojo kind of came out Of the woodwork And the Browns fans when the fucking Chad Henney scramble followed by the whatever, the fumble out of bounds, like the mojo kind of came out of the woodwork

and the Browns fans like, oh yeah, we're the Browns. It doesn't always happen. We've seen a lot of teams flip the narrative over there, especially in this century. But I do think this still is the Bills. And I still wonder, like it's been such an easy, nice ride.

The fact that there's so much confidence with them as an underdog on the road going against a team that's won 24 of the last 25, that part makes me nervous with the Bills plus three. They have such a great fan base. They have such a fun team. And I, you know, the word out of that Buffalo building is that like,

it's a selfless positive young team like and guys like Dion Dawkins who aren't household names are like incredible young men and then you get the Cole Beasley factor and he's cool as shit and then you've got Stefan Diggs and like they're really likable they're really likable and they're like you want to see this fan base that has been through so much have this great moment 27 years after they last won an AFC championship game getting their trips to Super Bowl so like your heart strings and you know that fan base and you love that fan base you want to see them and even the Chiefs fans who I've spoken to are like if we lose to them like at least it's them it's not the Patriots or the Steelers like

we got our moment last year like I almost feel like both fan bases are just such you know positive like groups of people that want to see success for everyone i i just at the end of the day i don't think the history of thurman thomas and his helmet and norwood come into play but like there is there is a tiny bit there is this like the chiefs are don't forget what the chiefs are it's not like they're a 10 and 6 defending champion they are a 14 and 2 defending champion. They are a 14-2 defending champion who should be 15-1 if they started their starters in Week 17.

I guess two things worry me with the Bills. One is, do they have the type of team that should be able to beat this Chiefs team? Because I do think a component of that would be you got to run the ball and control the clock. I'm not sure they can run the ball. I don't think that's his game. Yeah. I don't think that's his game. We saw them last week. They were like, we're not going to be got to run the ball and control the clock. I'm not sure they can run the ball. I don't think that's his game. Yeah.

I don't think that's his game. I think we saw them last week. They were like, we're not going to be able to run the ball. We're just calling pass plays. And so if it's going to be a back and forth, they're throwing the ball at, that's great for the chiefs. You'd think so. But the bills defense,

Tredavious white and Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, like Levi Wallace, they've got a good defense. So like they might be able to capitalize. You saw what they did to the Ravens last week. It's going to, I think last week I knew Ravens-Bills, first team to 20 wins, neither team made it to 20. This game, I think the team that holds the- First team wins to 30? No, I think it's the team that holds the other team under 35.

That's what I think it is. I think it's a crazy- What about Beasley? Because that's the other thing under 35. That's what I think it is. I think it's a crazy. What about, what about Beasley? Cause that's the other thing that worries me. Cause he was so important for them. Yeah. He was so important during the season and I think he's playing hurt. They're not talking about it,

but it's a little like the Michael Thomas thing. Yeah. And he is hurt because even in that wildcard round, he had to be physically lifted up every time he caught a ball and brought back to the huddle, but he was out there last week. He's practicing this week. Gabriel Davis didn't practice on Wednesday.

I need to check the injury report. That would give me a little bit of concern. But for the most part, the thought is that Beasley's going to go and is going to be that slot receiver. Well, here's how the Bills win. Josh Allen has a great game. I know that's like the worst analysis of all time, but if he's not at least very good, I don't think they can win.

You've got your basketball pyramid for all time. Let's go to the NFL pyramid. Where's Josh Allen in that conversation now? And then where's Josh Allen if he beats Mahomes in this game? Well, I think the goal for him would be, can these next two games vault him to the Mahomes-Rogers-Wilson level? Where he's discussed on that level. I don't think he's there yet because he's got to win a game like this. I agree. And he hasn't thrown's discussed on that level. I don't,

I don't think he's there yet. Cause he's got to win a game like this. I agree. And he hasn't thrown his team on his back and been that guy. They beat the Colts, but didn't feel like that was the Josh Allen game. And then last week it was all about Leslie Frazier's defense. Josh Allen needs to be excellent.

And if you really believe in Josh Allen and you think all the stuff that he did against the Steelers, which was amazing and against the Cardinals, which was great in a loss and against the 49ers, like was amazing, and against the Cardinals, which was great and a loss, and against the 49ers. And then, of course, the Patriots and then the Dolphins. If you think that's the version you're getting, then you should bet with the Bills and have no feeling of regret. If you think that he's still another year away from being at that level,

well, that's when you take the Chiefs. Coaching staff's a wash? Andy was McDermott's mentor for many years in Philadelphia. There might be a little of mine, you know, stuff at play there. Dable's good. Leslie Frazier's really good. Two good coach staffs. Special teams seems pretty even, except for the Bucker,

the fact that for whatever's going on with him, this dude can make it from 60, but not 32. Yeah, can't make it short. Tyler Bass is a rookie, but he hit something from like 58 earlier this season. I think that's a wash, pretty much. Yeah, all right. All right, we're going to take a break.

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Tennessee, 800-889-9789. And 1800gambler.net in West Virginia. All right, we're going to do some props quick before we do Million Dollar Picks. So important note, no KC props because we don't know what the deal is with Mahomes. So I don't really have anything for the Bills game. It's all Bills.

Kelsey won with a beauty last week. Kelsey won. We hit Kelsey and we hit Cam Akers last week. Cam Akers by a yard, I think. Yeah. The one prop that I kind of liked for the Bills game was Josh Allen rushing yards, 33 and a half. You like over or under?

I like the over because I do feel like he's going to have to use his legs in this game, especially if it's a back and forth and both teams have the ball a bunch of times. I like it. You know what I mean? Like, does he have three scrambles for 30 yards and then like that one other like QB third and four draw for five and that gets me to 35? He led them in rushing the first time they played.

I told you it was not a good effort for him, but he ran the ball well. And yeah, without Zach Moss, you're going to get more out of Josh Allen in the running game. So yeah, I would say that is 33 seems reasonable. A couple other ones. Rodgers, at least one passing touchdown in each half is minus 105.

So you'd have to throw one TD in each half. He has at least two touchdowns in his last eight playoff games. Rodgers' three passing touchdowns is plus 190. Rodgers' over-under for pass completions is 24.5. And the reason I mention this is I wonder if it's a little like the Patriots' game plan against the Seahawks, where it's just a lot of completions move the chains. Third,

three yard pass for your past 10. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Um, that's what I was doing last week against the saints and Aikman was good on it. He was like, it's hard to be patient,

but this is what they're giving you. Like just take the little screen past the four net all the way downfield. Rogers 30 plus completions with the Packers winning is plus 460. Both things have to happen. 30-plus is a lot, especially outdoors. I don't see that happening. This was my favorite touchdown prop. Robert Tunyon scores the first touchdown.

He loves Tunyon on those one-yarders, doesn't he? Godwin scores the second touchdown. Okay. So it has to be that sequence. Tanya and then Godwin. That's too funny. That's so specific. 100 to 1 odds. Are there other combinations? It has to be that combination.

I mean, shit, just do it for the fun of it. Yeah. I think I was really intrigued by that one. A picture of a guy at Fan one Like sitting in a laboratory doing algorithms And like yes that is the bat That's great And then Brady throws

An interception Minus 118 I don't see that I think if they lose one of the reasons they'll lose Is he has a bad interception Because one of the good things about what they did last week Was the reasons they'll lose is he has a bad interception because one of the good things about what they did last week was even though they were choppy and sloppy and had no rhythm,

they didn't turn the ball over. And I think he's going to go into this game. And I think both him and Rogers, I'm not turning the ball over and it might be one of those staring contests for the first turnover. Somebody is going to turn the ball over. Yeah. I'm so torn on this game, dude. I'm sorry.

I feel like I'm supposed to be lending you advice and thoughts and just chiming in. It's really hard. It's so hard. And these are such good football games. I'm almost sad that it's almost over because it's that good. I've been talking about them all week. I love these two matchups. I can't believe I'm going to probably go against the bills here. It's tough. Okay.

So you have the 27 to one prop bet already with the bucks and bills. I do, but I have that. I'm having, so I have that. That's its own thing. I'm more concerned. We're five and O and our big bets here, a million dollar picks in the playoffs. And I want to keep the momentum going.

All right, here we go. Million dollar picks for the conference right. Here we go. Million dollar picks for the conference championships. Let's go. We are up 1.5 million for the season. We're up 2.812 million for the last three weeks. We've been doing really well.

We'll see if it can go this week. First game. Packers. Minus three over the Bucs. There's some weird money line stuff with this on FanDuel, though. Get the Bucs at plus 106 if you take them plus three,

which I'm going to do for $400,000. We're going to take the Bucs. I'm going slightly against your advice. Bucs money line? No, no, no. Bucs plus three is plus 106. Okay.

So if they win 400K, I win $424,000. Here's the thinking. I think it's a three-point game. I think they have a chance to win. I think they have game breakers on both sides of the ball. And I think my margin error with that team is weirdly less than it is with the Packers, where in the Packers,

there's a scenario where they just shut down Aaron Jones. They overflow the offensive line. Rodgers has no time. He's playing from behind. And I'm like, why did I take the Packers? They can't block anybody. I just feel safer with the Bucs. I know you don't agree. I don't agree. It's not

my million dollar picks. I feel like you're saying we've been hot on this team. Brady and you have such history. And when it comes down to it, they played in week six and the Buccaneers defense destroyed that Packers offense. They've since lost Bakhtiari. You can make a very, very good case. The X factor is Rodgers being this Zen-like robot in a different stratosphere, just laughing at the competition and just cruising right by him. Strength of schedule, not really there for the Packers.

Yeah, fair. Bucks defense flying around the ball last week. I am picking them plus three while acknowledging that if Jared Cook doesn't get stripped, they might've lost to a team that couldn't throw the ball more than 10 yards. Plus three, our first pick.

I'm getting you. If they win plus three, it's fine. You will be wearing a Devin white 45 Buccaneers Jersey next week. Well, we discussed, I will get you. Cause that's the reason why they won.

Trust me. Second pick. I, I have to do it I'm going against the Bills We're taking the Chiefs Minus three I was talking to you that way

But does it feel right in your stomach When you say that I'm going to take the Chiefs minus three And here's why I don't think this is the same Bills team That I fell in love with In November and December I don't think Beasley's right

I think they really miss Zach Moss. I don't like that they were so worried about running the ball against Baltimore last week that they basically were like, we have to throw it every down. That's not a good sign. And I just think the Chiefs, it's this champion's will.

We saw it last week. There's a confidence with them. There's a serenity to them. The game breakers. I don't want to go against Kelsey. I don't want to go against Tyreek Hill. I don't want to go against possibly playing on an injured leg, Mahomes. I don't want to go against a team that's won 24 of its last 25

and is only a three-point favorite at home against the Buffalo Bills who lost four straight Super Bowls. I'm not doing that. So I'm backing off. I'm off the bandwagon. I'm sorry Buffalo Bills who lost four straight Super Bowls. I'm not doing that. So I'm backing off. I'm off the bandwagon. I'm sorry, Bills fans. You said it all. Does it feel right now that you said it?

Or do you, because it's not your final. It feels right. You said it. You're at peace. It feels right. If I was getting the Bills team with the healthy Cole Beasley and Zach Moss, I feel like they could go toe to toe.

This is too much on Josh Allen in and Zach Moss. I feel like they can go toe to toe. This is too much on Josh Allen in this game, who I really like. I didn't like the way I thought. I liked the way he played in round one. Did not like the way he played last week. And if he beats me, he beats me. All right. So the Chiefs are minus 118. We're going to put 300 K on the chiefs minus three. It's a minus one 18. So we are risking 354,000 to win 300 on the chiefs minus three, but we're also going to do a little teaser. Can I introduce you to tease?

I would love to hear it. We're doing a six and a half point tease, 120,000 to win a100,000 on the Chiefs down to plus $3.5 and over to $47,000. So we're all in on the Chiefs winning a shootout. It's a little hedge.

We have the $300,000 on the minus $3,000, but then also a little extra on the teaser there that adds up to the same money as the Bucs. And then we're going to put $10,000 on the following prop on FanDuel.

Robert Tunyon scores the first touchdown of the game and Chris Godwin scores the second touchdown of the game. It has to happen in that sequence. 100 to 1 odds. We're doing that one as well. Do you know why this bet is going to happen, Bill? Do you know where Robert Tunyon went to happen bill do you know where robert tunyon went to college where indiana state university oh there you go it's in the stars my friend this is it this is perfect the sycamores baby let's go and then we're doing one more

fan duel uh prop we're gonna put 25k on josh allen over 33 and a half yards. Rushing. Yes. Yeah. 33, three of yards rushing by bad. Uh, again,

we are up 1.5, $8, $5 million after round two and up 1.5 million for the season. Those are the million dollar picks for round three. Peter Schrager. Hey, this was tough. It's a really hard round.

There's nothing to be ashamed of. We had to scale it back. Three of the best fan base, nothing against Tampa, but three of the best fan bases in sports in the Packers, Chiefs, and of course now the Bills, and then two of the best games

you could ever ask for. This is what we do this for. I can't wait. And you're right. This was hard. We could have easily gone either way. But Bill, I am riding with you right now. We are riding together. Let's go. Well could have easily gone either way. But Bill, I am riding with you right now. We are riding together.

Let's go. Well, if I'm right on this, we're going to have a Chiefs-Bucks Super Bowl. Which means lots of highlights for the DeFord offsides penalty over the two weeks. So that'll be great. I'll enjoy that. Schrager, say hi to

Kyle and Burleson and Kay and everybody and the whole gang and we'll see you this weekend. Thank you, sir. All right, that's it for the podcast this week. Don't forget about First Blood and The Terminator on the rewatchables. We'll be back Sunday night with The Cuz. Don't forget about his new book, You Can't Lose Them All.

It comes out on Tuesday. You can preorder it right now, and it can show up in your mailbox. It'll just show up. Then you'll have it. I'm in it. We talked about it with Kimmel. Go check it out. You can't lose them all. My cousin Sal. I'll see them on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them. On the wayside, on the way so I never say I don't have feelings with them.