The Bill Simmons Podcast - KC’s Receiver Dilemma, UFC 293, ESPN In Trouble, and Million Dollar Picks With Ariel Helwani and Ben Thompson
Episode Date: September 8, 2023The Ringer's Bill Simmons shares some postgame thoughts about the Lions' season-opening win over the Chiefs (3:02) before making his Million-Dollar Picks for Week 1 (14:32). Then, Bill is joined by Ar...iel Helwani to discuss Team Canada's FIBA run, UFC 293 story lines, and a disagreement on the Buffalo Bills (24:10). Then, Bill talks with business and tech analyst Ben Thompson about Disney vs. Spectrum, what it says for the future of cable, and more (57:04). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ariel Helwani and Ben Thompson Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Coming up, football.
We're back, baby.
Oh, yeah.
Next.
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They're doing all the gambling stuff.
Sal has a new show that we premiered on Friday morning.
So we haven't premiered it yet
because I'm taping this on Thursday night.
I just went into the future.
But it's going to be on FanDuel TV,
10 a.m. ET.
And then we're going to run it as well
on Sal's feed.
It is called Cousin Sal's Winning Weekend.
Big weekend preview.
And then on FanDuel TV on Sunday,
the Ringer Wise guys, we're doing it, man.
We've talked about doing a pregame gambling show forever,
and it's finally happening.
Cousin Sal with the East Coast Bias guys,
Joe House, Raheem Palmer, John Jastrzemski.
We are live on FanDuel 11 a.m. on Sunday,
breaking down all the action, all the bets, all the last minute injuries,
parlays, props, you name it. We're doing it all. We're going for an hour on FanDuel TV,
and then we're going to extend it on some FanDuel and Ringer digital platforms as well,
probably till about 1230 range. I might even pop on there every once in a while,
but I am so excited for that show. We're not running it as a podcast. It is just
live TV on every platform we have. So there you go. Coming up on this podcast, at the top, I'm going to talk about Chiefs Lions
tonight, as well as Million Dollar Picks, week one. Can't wait to drop all of those. And then
after that, Aro Hawani comes on. He hosts the Ring Arm MMA show for us. He is the most famous
person covering UFC these days. But that's not the
only reason he came on. We wanted to talk about Team Canada and the World Cup. We wanted to talk
about UFC 293. And we wanted to talk about his beloved Buffalo Bills, who I am shorting to make
the playoffs this year. I do not think they will make the playoffs. So we argued about that and a
whole bunch more. And then Ben Thompson from the Stratechery blog, he's been on this pod many times. We were talking about this whole ESPN
charter dispute, what it means, what ESPN's direction is going to be going forward now that
this incredible business model that they had seems to be in disarray. I'm being kind,
but what's going to happen? What does this all mean? What is ESPN
going to look like? How is this going to affect the sports right deals? We dive into all of it.
This is an awesome podcast. I almost feel like we need some music to start us off.
What should we do? Pearl Jam! All right, taping this, it is 8.30 Pacific time.
Just watch the Lions beat the Chiefs in what became the Kadarius-Tony game.
So, you know, we love overreacting in week one, and especially in the opening night if things go
wrong. But I will say, I was a little worried about this Chiefs team. Cousin Sal and I even
talked about it, about the receiver room. Beyond Kelsey, what was going to happen? And I have
personal experience with this with the 2006 Patriots, which was the year before the iconic 07 offense that Brady had 50 touchdowns,
eight picks, 4,800 plus yards, Moss, Walker, everybody. The year before that year,
he only threw for 35, 29, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. And in 05, he threw for 41, 20, 28, and 15. So what happened between 05 and 06?
Well, he lost all his receivers. Everybody was gone. He ended up with Rashay Caldwell,
who was the only guy on the team who had more than 700 receiving yards. He was 61 for 760.
Ben Watson, 49 for 643.
And nobody else in that team
had more than 400 yards receiving.
And I bring this up because
they get rid of Tyreek Hill two years ago,
or a year and a half ago, it works.
They end up winning anyway.
They have Schuster.
They have Kelsey, obviously, age 32, still at his prime.
And they were able to patch together
while they're scaling all these guys,
and it was enough.
And Mahomes just basically being Steph Curry.
But sometimes in football,
you can pass the point of competency
and it can happen on the offensive line.
It can happen on the defense.
It can happen when a fly jumps in
as you're trying to talk,
which has happened right now.
The receivers were bad
and Tony symbolized everything.
He had a terrible game.
He had the pick six was his fault.
He drops the key play on the 45-yard line
when they get the ball back with two and a half minutes left.
But over and over again, Mahomes had nowhere to go.
Now you would say, well, Kelsey's coming back in 10 days.
It'll be fine.
Kelsey's 33.
Kelsey plays a position that perennially,
you have six, seven, eight, nine,
10 years of your peak. And then physically you take a lot of hits.
I know he's spread out more as wide receiver, but you know, you're basically now saying
if we don't have this 33 year old tight end who has a decent amount of miles on him and
who hyperextended his D this week, even before the season started. If he doesn't
come through, we're in trouble.
So the question is, do they
trade for a receiver? Do they just keep
their fingers crossed? Do they think that this is
all going to work out? I just remember
the 06 Pats. The reason that season
happened was because they traded
Deion Branch before the year for Seattle's number
one pick. They did it because Branch wanted
a big contract. Belichick just was at the height of his stubbornness and was like, I'm not going to do it.
And I think it cost them a Super Bowl. They ended up losing to the Colts in the AFC title game.
And the reason was because on third and three, I've talked about this before in my pod,
to basically close that Colts game out, Brady had nowhere to go. And he ends up going to Troy Brown,
who was on the last legs of his career, and he doesn't make the play. Peyton Manning gets the
ball back, wins the game. The Colts win the Super Bowl. It comes down. Your whole season can come
down to three times, either a receiver dropped it, somebody didn't get open. And when you have
this incredible toy like Mahomes, the best guy in the league, the best
guy of the last five, six years, do you want to mess around with the weapons?
And it seems like they have.
And you start thinking like the Warriors were in that spot with Steph Curry last year where
they had this team, they spent a shitload of money on it, but they were also banking on Jordan Poole and Moses Moody
and James Wiseman and Jonathan Kaminga,
and they decided to get a little cute
and tried to do the double error thing at once,
and it didn't work out,
and they ended up getting knocked out in round two by the Lakers.
The Chiefs, I don't think they necessarily got cute.
It's expensive to have Patrick Mahomes.
It's expensive to have Travis Kelsey and Chris
Jones. By the way, neither of those guys played. And this goes back to the overreaction thing for
week one. Kelsey will be back. I'm sure they'll sign Chris Jones at some point. They did okay
without him today. It's not like the Lions offense decided the game or anything.
But big picture, is their offense going to be the same?
Are they going to be able to convert
those two, three plays a game
that they need? From what you saw today,
do you trust those receivers?
I do not.
That was my big takeaway. That was the
first thing. The second thing, just I jotted down
some quick notes. They started
out the game, and Tirico
called Mahomes the face of the league.
Patrick Mahomes.
That's how he introduced him.
And I was like,
oh wait, he is the face of the league.
That's right.
And I was trying to think like,
who are the top five faces of the league?
Who's number two after Mahomes?
Because Mahomes is definitely
the face of the league.
I had Josh Allen, two.
Rodgers, three.
Burrow, four.
It starts getting really, really iffy,
like almost after the top three.
And then I guess Dak, five,
because he's the quarterback of the Cowboys.
But it's interesting.
I don't feel like there's a defensive player
who's in the conversation.
Not really a receiver at this point. Maybe Kelsey could be in there actually as a, as cause he's
pretty famous. He's got the big podcast now. Maybe he's in the top five. Uh, I wouldn't say
any running back, but, uh, it's funny how definitively face of the league he is, you know,
and you go back, like they go 12 and four, 12 and four, 14 and two,
12 and five, 14 and three,
two and one in the Super Bowls,
five final fours basically.
And I keep thinking back
to that AFC title game
when the Pats,
they beat the Chiefs in KC.
Thanks, Dee Ford.
But that was like a legitimate
passing of the torch.
When you see so seamlessly
face of the league just change hands like that. Like of the torch. When, when you see so seamlessly face of the league,
just change hands like that. Like when Jordan left in 98 in Chicago, it wasn't like, he was like,
here, Kobe, take it or whoever. Like there was nobody there. And we had this really choppy
next couple of years, tiger in 2009, same thing. Tiger goes down. It's not like, all right, Sergio Garcia here.
It's so rare to have the Brady Patriot thing ending
and all of a sudden just handing it off
to Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Belichick's just handing it off to Andy Reid.
New England is handing off their cold weather city
Titletown thing to the Chiefs.
And it just kind of seamlessly happened.
So I had that written down.
The Lions.
I did not have them in the playoffs and I had this game as a loss for them.
And Kelsey goes down earlier this week
and the line drops.
It drops from six and a half.
I think it ended at maybe four.
And I thought they were a nine and eight team. Their over under was nine and a half. I think it ended at maybe four. And I thought they were a nine and eight team.
Their over-under was nine and a half.
I wasn't a true believer.
I didn't really totally see it.
But now that this is a win,
you think like, can they get to 10 wins?
Now they just have to go nine and seven.
They still have all their home games left.
They have some easy games in the schedule.
And I'm looking at,
I never felt great about my division picks, but one of the ones that I really liked was the Packers
to win the division and the Lions to be maybe Lions, Giants, Atlanta, maybe to all be competing
for a seven seed and the Lions not getting it partly because of their schedule. Well, they just
won the toughest game in their schedule. They won it despite some very bizarre Dan Campbell coaching.
He does the fake punt six minutes into the game from zone 17,
which I thought was just insane.
And then they drove down and scored and it was like, cool.
That was still insane.
They just did some weird stuff.
Like one time they went for it inside the 50,
another time they didn't,
and they were just kind of all over the map.
But as the game went on and no Chris Jones,
they started to assert their will.
The big thing with the Lions that I thought jumped out to me
on the giant TV I was watching the game on
was every time Gibbs was in, they just seemed terrifying.
And Montgomery had a pretty good game.
He ran between the tackles, and especially in the fourth quarter came on was every time Gibbs was in, they just seemed terrified. And Montgomery had a pretty good game. Like he ran between the tackles and especially in the fourth quarter came on, but
Gibbs as a weapon was as advertised every time he was on the field. Um, I was pretty terrified.
So for the lions, like just an amazing turn of events, what happens if Kelsey doesn't hyper
extend his knee, he at least makes two of those plays, right? You
even think like first down on the 45, two and a half minutes left, Tony's wide open. Mahomes,
who wasn't as great as he was moving around, I did think he missed some throws in this game.
And part of that was because I'm not sure he totally trusted the receivers. But I do feel
like if Kelsey's in that game, the chiefs win the Tony pick six play
was unbelievable.
It felt like the chiefs were going to go up by double digits.
I had a lion's tease that I made.
I teased the lions, uh, alt line with Atlanta in real life.
And I'm thinking like, oh my God, the lions might not even cover 10 and a half.
All of a sudden they're winning.
Um, there wasn't a lot to learn on the lion side, other than that, uh, Gibbs and Sam Laporta
was another one that the second tight end they had.
And it just seems like he's ready to go.
So maybe as they go along and they play some easier teams, who knows?
I don't think they're going to be the offensive juggernaut everyone was predicting before the year.
But to start out 1-0 with what just happened there, pretty crazy.
So the Lions don't play until 10 days from now. They're home Seattle, home Atlanta at Green Bay.
And if they can get to 3-1 somehow during that stretch, then they have this Carolina at Tampa
combo week five, week six. So maybe that's a 10-win team. I still like the Packers. I'm still
in on the Packers. I still believe in the Packers. But from what I saw today from the Lions,
very lucky that Travis Kelsey didn't play. Last but not least, interesting NBC telecast.
They had 400 people, as always, in the multi-part studio show that nobody asked for. They decided to Mike Hutchinson's parents for the game.
And we got to see his mom on her phone over and over again.
And we also got to see his dad just repeatedly go,
yeah, strange move.
I have created a Google doc
and I'm just throwing in all year,
all the inexplicable decisions that different TV networks make during this NFL
season.
And I'm going to title the doc Hutchinson's parents because I don't understand
what that was.
Somebody watched the little league world series.
It got super excited about it.
All in all,
great to have football back.
I loved it.
I made some meat sauce today.
Um, did some cooking and watched
the game with my son who has been playing defense this year. So he was calling out some of the
offensive formations. It was the most impressed I've ever been with him. But anyway, really fun
to have it back. Can't wait for this weekend. Can't wait for million dollar picks. Let's get to it.
All right. Million dollar picks week one. Each week we're going to bet a million fake dollars
as far as you know on the weekend slate. We do not include Thursday games because it's not fair.
I mean, I could tell you right now I would do the lion's money line and pretend I taped this at 3.30. I'm an ethical guy. I don't do stuff like that. Week one, love the home dogs
in a week one. Love underdogs in general, especially when it's division matchups. So
kind of veering toward there and over and over again, just looking at two things. One, does that line seem off? And
two, does that line seem fishy? So I've actually, I've stayed away from a couple of games just
because I didn't understand the line. And the Seahawks Rams is probably the number one for that.
I liked the Seahawks this week. I was ready to throw them in and parlay. And it's like,
why is that line five against this crap Rams team? And a Seahawks this week. I was ready to throw them in and parlay. And it's like, why is that line five against this crap Rams team and a Seahawks team that I think is going to make the playoffs and is at home? Why are we only at five? So there's another one like that, that we're going to get to a million dollar picks. Also staying away from Pat's Eagles. That line's suspicious to me. It's kind of moved up. It stayed at four. I like this Pats team. I'm just staying away
completely. Here we go. Million dollar picks week one. Dolphins at the Chargers. Dolphins are getting
three points. And what's weird is the Chargers have no home field advantage whatsoever. So usually
you get three points for being at home. And nowadays, because home field advantage matters,
just a tiny bit less for a variety of reasons.
Maybe it's two and a half.
I think the Dolphins are better than the Chargers,
especially you're getting Tua healthy.
I don't have to worry about Tua yet, hopefully.
Plus, you know, he learned jujitsu
and he learned how to fall.
Feeling good about the Dolphins,
feeling good about Tua.
It's a team that I like to win the AFC East.
I think the odds are like plus 290. I just think they're better than the Chargers. So I'm getting the plus three.
Worst case scenario, field goal game. I'm not buying any of the Chargers hype. I don't really
fully understand it. It's the same team that completely, completely crapped the bed against
the Jaguars only like, what, nine months ago? I'm supposed to believe in them now because they have
an offensive coordinator?
I just believe in this Dolphins team.
I think it's the most talented team in the AFC East.
The only question, plus they added Vic Fangio to help the defense.
The only question I have is can Tua play 17 games?
I don't have to care about the 17 games of this.
I just care about the one game.
I think they're too explosive for them.
I love the Dolphins.
I'm going to take the Dolphins plus three.
We're also going to take the Packers who are getting a point and a half in Chicago.
And for whatever reason, the Packers and the Bears have the same over under for wins. I think
the Packers are way more talented. I am in on Jordan Love. I love the fact that he sat there
for three years and just kind of absorbed and learned everything. Their coach has won a lot
of games, whether you're a huge LaFleur fan or not. I don't know what to tell you. The Packers
have been pretty successful up until last year. And I just like the team. I think they're gonna
be able to rush the passer. I think they're gonna be able to run the ball a lot more now that Rodgers
is out of there and they can line up beyond center. And I think this is a lay of the SmackDown
game. I do not believe in the Bears. Packers plus one and a half, we're grabbing them.
We're also grabbing, and I'm a little more worried about this one
just because I don't know who's playing for the Niners yet.
They just signed Bosa.
Kittle has the red flag next to him,
which if you have Kittle in fantasy, you just expect it at this point.
But we don't know if Kittle's going to play.
But as you've heard for the last three weeks,
I'm all in on the Steelers team.
And if I'm all in on the Steelers team,
this is a game they have to win.
They're plus two, getting them as a home dog in week one.
I'm in on Kenny Pickett.
I'm in on Mike Tomlin.
I'm in on this defense.
And this is a team that I think has a real chance to make the Super Bowl.
So Steelers plus two.
Last one, Jets, Monday night.
I kind of like both of the New York teams
on Monday night,
but we're going to stay away
from the Giants-Cowboys
just because the Cowboys have owned the Giants
and the Giants have to prove to me
they can beat the Dallas.
I'm not betting on it.
I am betting on the Jets.
I do not believe in this Bills team this season.
Josh Allen, never fun to go against him,
but we're doing it.
To me, this feels like a Jets win on a Monday night.
Everybody goes nuts.
Here comes the Jets hype,
and then we'll actually find out
if it's a typical Jets team,
which I think it is.
I do not have them in the playoffs.
Jets plus two and a half.
So mark that down.
And then last but not least,
Falcons minus three and a half against Carolina. This only worries me because it's a pretty obvious pick. There's a lot of money on Carolina. On the other hand, I think the line's too low. I think
the Panthers have a chance to be the worst team in the league. Frank Reich, 0-4-1 in his last five
week ones. And I don't know if this Atlanta team's a playoff team or not,
but this is a line that feels like three weeks from now
would be Atlanta by seven or Atlanta by seven and a half.
So those five, Dolphins plus three, Packers plus one and a half,
Steelers plus two, Jets plus two and a half, Falcons minus three and a half.
We were putting 200K on all five of those.
And then instead of Underdog
Parlay this year, I have a new gimmick. If you remember in The Godfather, probably my favorite
movie of all time, or at least one of my three favorite movies of all time. My list varies from
basically week to week. We had in The Godfather, the great Luca Brazzi, who was Vito Corleone's bodyguard.
And he has that incredible scene at the wedding when he's rehearsing what he's going to say
to The Godfather.
And then he comes in and he's like, Godfather, so happy on your son's wedding day.
And he's just like stammering.
He's a mess.
But Luca Brazzi is a badass.
And Salazzo comes in and they send Luca Brasi
to try to see what's going on with Salazzo the Turk
because they think he may be a bad guy.
And Salazzo the Turk kills Luca Brasi, strangles him.
He's got the big bulging eyes.
And they don't know what happened to Luca Brasi.
All this stuff starts happening to Corleone family.
And they're like, well, when Luca comes back
and they don't know, Luca's just gone.
They don't know what happened to him. And then they get this newspaper with
Luca's bulletproof vest wrapped in a fish. The fish is in the bulletproof vest. And the message
is Sicilian. It's Luca Brazzi now sleeps with the fishes. I'm going to have the Luca Brazzi line
every week. The fishiest game of the week.
The one that just makes me go,
hmm, that doesn't make sense.
Everybody likes this one side.
All the money is going one way.
Why isn't the line higher?
Just, I just, something doesn't smell right.
We're going to call it the Luca Brasi game.
We're going to put 50K each week on this.
Let's see how we do.
This week, Arizona plus seven in Washington.
And the case for Washington is, you know,
we don't even know who the Cardinals quarterback is.
They're a mess.
They're already tanking for Caleb Williams.
And Washington, first of all,
I'm not sure Washington should be favored by seven points
over anybody in professional football.
Maybe outside the NFL, you could extend it to European leagues or whatever.
Ron Rivera, I still feel like could be the first coach fired.
Everybody's going to put Washington in a tease.
Everyone's going to put Washington in an eliminator pool.
Everyone's betting on Washington.
I ask you, when has this ever worked out in the history of mankind?
I think the Cardinals actually have a chance to win this game because I just don't trust Washington in any way, shape, or form. And I don't trust how easy this looks. The tease looks easy.
The money line parlay looks easy. The eliminator pool looks easy. It's like, oh yeah. Oh, and I
have, I teased Washington with Minnesota. That'll be a layup. There are no layups
in the NFL ever. Cards plus seven in our first Luca Brasi pick of the week for 50K. So to recap,
Dolphins plus three, Packers plus one and a half, Steelers plus two, Jets plus two and a half,
Falcons minus three and a half, 200K on all of them. And then the Luca Brasi game, cards plus
seven, putting 50K on that.
Those are the million dollar picks for week one.
And you can find all those lines on our friends
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This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back Redemption requires a Google account and currenticular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache,
you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way.
Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. So I woke up this morning and I realized Team Canada about to play the US in the World Cup,
UFC 293 this weekend, and lots of dialogue about whether the Josh Allen little mini era here is
already over. And I was like, I wonder where Ariel Helwani is. Checked in. He was in a hotel room.
He's like, I got a half hour. Let's go. What do you want to start with? Oh my gosh. First of all,
great to be back. I like how you just breezed by go. What do you want to start with? Oh, my gosh. First of all, great to be back.
I like how you just breezed by Serbia.
We're in the finals already?
This is tremendous.
Thank you for that.
I got to start with Team Canada.
I am buzzing, as they say overseas, about Team Canada.
Because, Bill, you have to understand, I'm a very patriotic person.
I love my country, my home country of Canada.
And I follow Canadian sports very, very closely. And I'm a huge basketballotic person. I love my country, my home country of Canada, and I follow Canadian sports very, very closely.
And I'm a huge basketball fan, as you know.
And as you also may know,
Canada basketball has been a bit of a joke over the years.
You know, when I was growing up,
it was Rick Fox and Bill Wennington.
That's all we had.
And Canada basketball was such a joke
that even those guys refused to play for Canada basketball.
It all changed in 2000 when Steve Nash
led the Canadian team to their last Olympic berth in Sydney.
And since then, we have been an utter failure.
And there were some close calls,
most notably 2021 against Czech Republic.
They couldn't even beat the Czech Republic
to make it to the Tokyo Games.
But now I finally felt,
I finally felt with all of this talent
and people buying in and RJ Barrett and Shaya and I thought Jamal as well. Kelly, two on a title team, right? So you start
with there. Now you have potentially them beating the USA, but then going forward, this SGA Jamal
Murray, Canadian backcourt with all this other stuff. I'm with you. I'm super patriotic. If I
like my team, I remember in 04, I turned on the 04 basketball team. I was like, I'm with you. I'm super patriotic if I like my team. I remember in 04, I turned on the 04
basketball team. I was like, I'm out betting on Argentina. I don't like the team they've put
together. But for the most part, I love just seeing the flags and that brings out a different
level of competitiveness. And this is the biggest Canadian game of all time, I think, right? It has
to be. 1,000%. They said that against France earlier in the tournament. The Spain game,
let me tell you something about the Spain game. My heart was beating so fast because
it was deja vu. We start great against France. We crush Lebanon. We then beat Latvia, who had
a solid showing without Chris Stapps. And then we stumble against Brazil. Brazil, 19 and a half
point favorites. And I was like, no, not this again. Because for us, you guys take for granted that you just make every Olympic. We don't. And
so that game against Spain on Sunday was not only a trip to the quarterfinals. Okay, great. But also
the Olympic berth, because the last thing I wanted was to go to July of next year in the early days
of free agency. And who knows who's going to want to play, who just had a long title run,
who just was playing in the playoffs till June.
And then we have to play for these last four remaining spots
a month before the Olympics
or three weeks before the Olympics.
That would have been a disaster.
And they were down 12 in the fourth quarter.
And then my guy, SGA from Mississauga.
Oh my gosh, what a freaking performance.
And by the way, can we show some love to Dylan Brooks?
Dylan, the villain. I mean, he's been unbelievable. I love, way, can we show some love to Dylan Brooks? Dylan the villain.
I mean, he's been unbelievable.
I love, I would take him on my team any day.
I would clone him 12 times
and have 12 of those guys.
I adore that guy.
I won't accept any Dylan slander.
He has been unbelievable.
They wouldn't be in the semis
without Dylan Brooks.
He's been awesome.
And what's interesting,
the Luka game that they just had
where both of them ended up getting kicked out, it was clear Dylan Brooks was like, this is the beginning of an amazing rivalry between me and Luka. And he's the only one who thinks that. But, you know, they're both in Texas now. And he's like, I'm really going to make this the rivalry the NBA fans didn't realize they wanted. And he was just following him around. He was invading his personal space. Luka complimented him after the game, which I was surprised by because he was super annoying.
This is a weird question, but who do you think is the most
true Canadian on this team?
If you had to say, this guy is so Canadian, I can't stand it.
Kelly Olenek, because he has been the one
guy who has shown up time and again
on some really bad teams.
He's creeping up to
most appearances for the Canadian men's
national team. And he just
seems like a nice guy, a salt of the earth guy.
He feels and looks
and just acts and kind of plays
very Canadian. You can see him on
the Colorado Avalanche as a defenseman
for 17 years.
A thousand percent.
With a 40-stitch cut on his forehead
that never healed right
because he stitched up
and went back in in a playoff game.
Yeah, I can see that.
A million percent.
But I will give a nod to R.J. Barrett
because R.J. Barrett's dad, Rowan Barrett,
was on that last Olympic team in 2000
with Steve Nash.
And it was was back then,
Bill, that 2000 team, there were only two NBA players on that team, Steve Nash and the great
Todd McCullough, another true Canadian, right? That was it. So look how far we have come where
we are arguably having the best plan on the court every time we're playing in SGA. And we would have
had the same with Jamal Murray as well. But RJ's dad took over as the general manager of Team Canada a few years ago. And I think RJ, being the star that he is,
being as notable as he is, every time he would play, I think that let some of the other guys
know like, hey, we should be a part of this as well. Because for some reason, the Canadian players
just didn't want to sign up. They didn't want to buy in. Could you imagine next year, Jamal Murray,
SGA, the best backcourt in the world.
You can have your Steph Currys.
You can have your this guy, LeBron.
SGA, Jamal Murray backcourt.
Maybe we get Andrew Wiggins back.
Maybe we get the great Benedict Maturin of the Indiana Pacers.
I mean, we're going to go 10, 12 deep here.
Lou Dort, shout out to Montreal's own Lou Dort.
I'm going nuts.
This seems like a dream because Canada basketball for me has always been that
thing that I've never been able to celebrate and I
could finally puff my chest out about it.
Do you ever feel like there
was a split second there where
the Knicks could have had SGA?
Yeah, absolutely. Two years ago?
I remember talking
about it on a podcast once and then all
the Oklahoma City fans went nuts and they were
like, we'd never trade that guy. He wasn't the guy that he became over the last two years and
the Knicks, cause they have the Kentucky guys and you know, they loved him and they had all
this stuff that they could have traded and OKC was going the other way. And, um, I don't know
if the Knicks could have done a godfather offer and then the window closed immediately. And now,
you know, I do feel like
they have a responsibility to try to put together like a fringe contender around him. Now, if you
feel one of the seven best players in the world, you've got to at least try to make, you know,
the conference finals. He's, I think he's had the best world cup of any player, um, any player on
any team. I mean, it's been somewhat of a coming out party for him on the worldwide stage. I think all of us who follow the NBA know exactly who he is. I was just foaming at the mouth
at that backcourt, SGA and Jamal Murray. And I get why Jamal ultimately didn't play, but I just
wanted to see them play together so badly. And I hope that in 2024, next summer, we get to see
that. I think that would be tremendous. Can I also give a brief shout out, by the way,
to their head coach, Jordy Fernandez?
This is a guy who took over the team in late June
for Nick Nurse and, you know,
has been a part of the FIBA system with Spain and whatnot,
assistant coach for the Sacramento Kings.
And his demeanor and just the way he coaches
and he makes the right moves like yesterday or Wednesday
when he went small against Slovenia.
That was brilliant.
I've really enjoyed him.
I thought he's had a great tournament as well.
And I feel like he's going to be like on that short list of like the young up and coming potential future head coaches in the NBA.
All right.
I'm going to bring you down because you're too happy.
All of a sudden, Giannis and Embiid are kind of looming over the next two years of the
Knicks here. And I started talking about Giannis at the end of June because I had some intel on it
and I did, I think, multiple podcasts where I was like, look, this is going to be year to year now
for him. He's got two years left on his deal.
And I think he's a standup guy.
And if he thinks that there's a world where he leaves,
cause he can't win a title in Milwaukee two years from now,
he he'll make the move next year.
And the Knicks I think are kind of frozen between him and the Embiid piece
where Philly is just completely falling apart on their end.
And do you feel like what,
if you, as a Knicks fan, do you want to go down this road again, where you have these,
the carnival prizes kind of lingering over that you have the claw and you're trying to grab,
but you don't know if you're going to get like, you've done this so many times,
or are you just happy with the team you have and let the chips fall where they may?
Well, the truth is who needs Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid when
you have Dante DiVincenzo. What a pickup. What a freaking pickup. I love this guy. I'm so excited.
He's incredible. Look, I think the mainstream media, I think you guys who talk about the NBA
as like a whole league and all the drama, I think you guys want that. We're good. I'm happy. The one thing I really wanted this offseason,
and who knows, there's still a month and a half or so left
before the season actually starts.
I'm curious if they explored moving Julius.
I ultimately thought they wouldn't.
I wasn't happy with him at the end of the playoff run.
His body language, his shot selection.
He was definitely hurt. I think we know now that part, his body language, his shot selection. He was definitely hurt.
I think we know now that part of his body
language was that he had
a broken bone in his ankle.
I know, but he was just such a grump out there.
He was.
It was very clear. I remember you asking me
if only one player from the
Knicks could make the All-Star team, who would it be?
Jalen or Julius? I said Jalen.
I feel like over time, that has aged
very well. He is by far the best player on the
team. As he goes, they go.
And so I'm very curious to see how
year two goes. I think it's going to be even better.
I think he has one of the best contracts
in the league. I think he's one of the best point guards in the league.
I just don't know if they can go
as far as they want to go with Julius. That being
said, the majority
of the team is intact.
Solid offseason in that regard.
But they have all their picks.
They have all their picks.
I didn't mention Mitchell.
That's the other name.
I had Garrett Bush from Cleveland last week,
and he's like,
he's out of here a year from now.
We all know it.
He's 100% out.
He's dying to be a Knick.
He's at every single Mets game.
He's always talking glowingly
about New York and the Garden.
I'll take him.
Perhaps, down the line,
it ends up being a good move that they didn't
sell the farm to get him to come
over. Who knows? I'm happy with
this team. I love Tibbs.
It's not going to be the team in a year.
What do you think it is? They'll get one of those
three guys. I guarantee it.
I guarantee it. They'll get Giannis and three guys. I guarantee it. I guarantee it.
They'll get Giannis and Peter Mitchell will be on that team a year from now.
And unfortunately,
this is what the league has become
where it's ring around the rosy.
And every year there's three
or four superstars available
and they kind of pick their spots.
Giannis is probably the most likely to stay to me
just because Milwaukee just might be really good.
I really think if he feels like he can win
where he is, he'll stay. Mitchell, I think always want to go to the Knicks. And the
Embiid thing is just like watching a slow motion car accident with just where that franchise is
going. And then he has a whole history of the Knicks. You know, if I obviously prioritize
Giannis number one, because he's 29, it just, it just feels like we're going to be talking about
the Knicks all year.
What are they going to do?
Who's available?
Oh, this guy seemed unhappy in this game.
I wonder if it's time.
And all their picks.
We've been down this road with them before,
but this time it really does feel like they're going to end up with somebody.
Okay, and here's the big difference.
They have the assets, and they're just as they are right now,
I'd say they're a solid top five, six team
in the Eastern conference. The difference over the years has been, there were like 11 or 12
and we needed the home run just to get back to relevancy. We're relevant now. It's just a matter
of, do we take that next big step? Uh, to your point, I think they do. If I had to bet on one,
it's probably Mitchell. Cause I think it's the easiest one to bring over and he wants to come over. I could see Giannis just being very
loyal to Milwaukee, seems to love his life there. And Bede, I could see him going in multiple spots,
including New York, but I'm good with Mitchell Robinson, baby. That's my guy. We want our
homegrown guys. Stop trying to break up the Knicks. We're good. We're happy. We're doing good.
Stop trying to break us up. Yes. I mean,. We're happy. We're doing good. Stop trying to break us up.
Yes.
I mean, the big thing is they changed the culture.
So it's not absurd for a star to want to go to the Knicks,
where you think where you were in the mid-2010s,
where people wouldn't even take meetings.
It wasn't even realistic for them to go.
All right, let's talk UFC.
You've gotten a lot of annoying texts from me over the summer.
My son is just in.
Like, this is his favorite sport.
We get every pay- his favorite sport. We get
every pay-per-view. We went a couple of months ago in Vegas and we have two 93s coming up this
Saturday, which will obviously be getting in my house. Um, give us, give us the biggest,
I mean, the main event is obviously the biggest storyline, but the biggest REO, I can't wait to see how Blank plays
out for 293. Well, this is all about Israel Adesanya, who's one of the biggest stars in the
sport today. I would say actively, I stress actively because Conor will always be the face
of the UFC and the biggest star, but he just hasn't been as active. He hasn't fought since
July of 2021. I would say actively, Israel is the biggest star in the sport in large part because he connects. I bet your son is a big
fan of his. I know like my nephews, my cousins, all kids under 20 love him. They love his
celebrations. They love his fighting style. They love his social media game, all that stuff.
And so he's fighting as close to home as possible. He lives in New Zealand. This is in Australia.
And he's fighting a guy named Sean Strickland.
Sean Strickland is like straight out of 1991 WWF.
I mean, he is a guy who has talked openly
about once being a neo-Nazi.
He talks about going to gas stations
and seeing people who look at him the wrong way
and wanting to club their heads with a baseball bat. You know who he is? You know who Sean Strickland is?
Sean Strickland is Remy from higher learning. So in 1993, Michael Rappaport, that's who he is.
He actually kind of looks like Michael Rappaport circa 1993. He said he, they just had a press
conference and I'm watching it and the fans are eating it up. And I'm like, wow, I can't believe
that this is what, you know, has, you know, this is
what has become of UFC press conferences.
But he is the antithesis of Israel.
And he is poking the bear.
And he is saying all kinds of crazy outlandish things.
But the bottom line is, as far as the fight is concerned, Strickland is a solid fighter.
But when it gets to these moments, these big fights, especially against strikers as good
as Israel, he tends to just go for broke and get caught. This happened to him a year and a half
ago when he fought Alex Pereira, who beat Israel in November, and then Izzy beat him in April.
And a lot of people think that he's going to just kind of go out there like a Tasmanian devil,
and then Izzy's going to counter-strike and stop him in one or two rounds. I think this could be
like an Izzy masterclass.
I think he is going to try to prove a point that there is a massive gap between him and Sean,
and he's going to come off like a huge megastar because Australia loves him as well.
And then here's the thing. This is the bridge fight, Bill, because if Izzy wins this fight
and Hamzat Shemaev wins on October 21st in Abu Dhabi. Israel versus Hamza Shamayev
could very well headline UFC 300 next spring,
and that would be one of the biggest
pay-per-views of all time.
Those two have massive fan bases.
Shamayev is a gigantic star,
especially in the Muslim world,
and he is an absolute killer beast.
He is just so tough.
He's fighting Paulo Costa on October 21st.
If both these guys win this fight,
the UFC has a gigantic potential main event
come next spring.
Where's 300 going to be, you think?
Probably T-Mobile.
I mean, they may go big, big and try to do Allegiant.
There's no chance they don't do it in Vegas.
And they have a deal with T-Mobile.
So I would be shocked.
200 was at T-Mobile.
100 was at Mandalay Bay.
T-Mobile wasn't a thing back then.
I would be shocked if 300 isn't at T-Mobile, but they haven't officially announced that yet.
So this is one of the great stretches in Vegas history, if not the greatest,
because they have the F1 race in November, which they're frantically building this track,
and it's going to be the biggest money event they've had. They have this,
I think it's called the Sphere, where U2's playing.
Shout out to James Dolan.
Yeah. One of the great music venues, I think, that's ever been built, if not the best.
They had the Super Bowl in February and then 300 in April.
That's an amazing, amazing run.
And I might be at all four of those.
I might go four for four.
Wow.
And not to mention, you have the Golden Knights as the defending Stanley Cup champs just chilling there.
You know, like they're the defending Stanley Cup champions.
Yeah, no, it is incredible that they're doing all these things.
The Aces. Isn't that the WNBA team?
The Aces, yes.
Everybody says the Aces.
So on this 293 card, top five fights, two heavyweight fights and a light heavyweight fight.
As you know, I like the bigger guys with UFC.
I like, because I always feel like
when we get to the lower classes,
you know, I don't know.
I just like watching big guys
try to beat the shit out of each other.
I'm sorry, I can't apologize.
I'm a casual UFC fan.
No, I get it.
And the co-main is then for you.
Bam Bam Taitui Vassa is one of the most
likeable, beloved characters in the UFC.
He's this gigantic former rugby player.
Yeah.
Loves to do the shooey.
People love when he does that after his wins.
He has lost two in a row, and he's going up against this guy named Alexander Volkov,
former Bellator heavyweight champion, nicknamed Drago.
Looks exactly like Ivan Drago.
Comes from Russia.
I think he's 6' seven or six foot eight.
They took a picture of the face-off this morning
and like Tuivasa's head is just barely in the frame
because they had to get all of Volkov's body in there.
But I got to tell you, man,
this is a really fascinating time in the world of MMA.
The number two organization, Bellator,
is about to be bought by the PFL, which is the number
three organization. They just got an influx of about $100 million in investment from Saudi Arabia.
Oh, I can't believe Saudi Arabia was involved.
They're finally in the world of MMA now. We've been waiting for this to happen for a long time.
Francis Ngannou is fighting Tyson Fury next month in Saudi Arabia. It's just a lot of craziness.
But as far as 293 is concerned.
You left out the UFC WWE merger is going to officially go through.
It looks like next week.
Yeah, next week.
We're going to have all the guys over there at the New York Stock Exchange.
That's surreal.
So we'll see what happens to both businesses in the aftermath of that.
But there's a stretch coming up, not to mention John Jones at Madison Square Garden.
Well, that's my son's guy.
Yeah, he wants to go.
That's his favorite.
He wants to go because John Jones is his guy.
Like he'll get in arguments, but John Jones kind of a troubled last 12 years.
No, no.
Like he just, and he does the whirl around John Jones elbow.
That's like his pretend
watch this, I'm going to do this to you, but he pulls the
elbow back, but each time you think he's about
to break your nose. Yeah, that's my idiot son.
He loves Jon Jones.
I'm a little bit surprised because he's
in his teens, right?
Yeah, but it's YouTube. Teenagers
catching up on
UFC, there's like four or five
guys that just jump out
if you watch the right montage of different moves.
Sean O'Malley, he has to love Sean O'Malley, right?
Well, how about, we didn't talk about that,
the Sean O'Malley in Boston where
you would have thought Sean O'Malley was from East Boston
or Charlestown or something.
They were booing Sterling,
and Sterling's one of the greatest guys.
Isn't he like one of the best character guys UFC's had in the last 15 years?
Even after the fight, they were booing him.
Yeah, well, he's kind of rubbed some fans the wrong way with some comments.
And he won the belt under some somewhat controversial circumstances.
So I wasn't surprised.
He's like a good guy.
Like he was a good loser.
Like he was very sportsmanlike.
They're like, boo! it was just classic boston they just they were like oh sean o'malley he must be from here
we're rooting for him you you've asked me before like who's the next superstar if he could go on a
run here now as champ like he's going to be in that conversation with izzy with john jones he
just has it all and he again he connects with that younger audience.
The UFC is so on fire right now.
And it's just like banger after banger after banger.
How about the fact that this event, 293, they sold it out in a couple of hours without any
of the top fights.
The main event wasn't even announced.
It was just the UFC is coming to Sydney.
It's probably just UFC and WWE as far as sports
entertainment is concerned that can do that. They say,
we're coming to town. Let's put the tickets
on sale. Boxing can't do that.
And Taylor Swift.
The main event could have been me versus you
and no one would have returned the tickets.
That's how hot the brand is right now.
It's crazy.
Here's why I think that's the case.
I think we're now in the two generation zone with UFC
and even like two and a half
because they have all the kids from,
I don't know, 11 to 18.
That's the new generation.
But now the dads kind of grew up with it, right?
And the dads now have the spending money
that grew up when they were kids. But then they also have the spending money that grew up when they were kids,
but then they also have the older generation
that just liked it when they're in their 30s
and the 2000 that are now in their 50s.
So really it's like three generations.
So it just feels like where we were in 2000,
where it was this oddity and people are arguing
about whether it was a human cockfight or not.
And the presentation's great.
They just do an incredible job
with the consistency of the pay-per-views. They the presentation is great. They just do an incredible job with
the consistency of the pay-per-views.
They're easy to find.
The relationship with ESPN Plus, I think,
is the best ESPN Plus relationship, right?
Amen. It's kind of saved
ESPN Plus in some ways.
So I just think they've figured
it out. And you know it's going well because
Dana had that scandal and it just kind of went
away.
They literally did it. It just went away. Nobody even cares.
No one said a thing. They're the lifeline of ESPN+. And I'm very curious because their deal is up in two years. And so I'm super curious to see what happens here because I think both
have benefited from the relationship. I think the UFC has become mainstream as a result of
the relationship with ESPN. And I think ESPN Plus has been a success because of the UFC.
There's nothing like I was talking about this with someone yesterday. There's
no one's top content is on ESPN Plus other than the UFC, right? Like the best NBA games
aren't exclusively on ESPN Plus. Their best NFL isn't on ES ESPN+. The best UFC fights are on ESPN+, exclusively.
And so that's been a brilliant move on their part
and it has worked out.
But I'm curious to see what happens in the next two years
because I suspect the UFC is going to ask for a lot of money.
And you know this better than I.
I think that's a fair suspicion.
Because the ESPN has NBA coming up,
but UFC, which never really gets covered,
is like, oh my God, NBA,
they're going to have to pay through the nose. This is a big reason why their profits might go
down. But I think the UFC thing, which they got at a really good deal a couple of years ago,
I think that's the best deal they've made in the last 10 years. And that deal is not going to be
there this time around because you're going to have streamers that are like this, like somebody
like Peacock could say like, this is, this is it. Like
if we don't get UFC, we might have to merge with somebody else or something. But like if Peacock
got UFC and WWE, which makes sense to me because they're going to be merged as in a one company.
Like to me, it's, I think you're, I think you're getting both and the, and they're going to try to
do the one plus one equals three would be my guess. So if ESPN loses UFC, that's a, you know,
on top of all the other stuff that's happened disaster.
I do think UFC loves being with ESPN because they love that,
that legitimacy Dana White has a credibility there. Yes.
They've all, they love to look at the ticker and they're, you know, the,
the logo is there and the upcoming fights, they love ESPN.com coverage.
Like they're very into that.
But Peacock, Apple, Amazon, the regular players, I can't see why they wouldn't go after,
especially when ESPN Plus bought the pay-per-views exclusively. Because when the deal first started,
they were still on DirecTV and in demand. But then midway through the first year, ESPN Plus said, we want all the pay-per-views exclusively. You can't go on any other platform.
And initially, people were thinking like,
man, did they overpay for this?
Like the rumor was that they paid the equivalent
to what 500,000 buys would be per show.
And it's ended up being a brilliant move on ESPN's part
because as you see, like everything funnels through them.
You have to subscribe to get the pay-per-views.
It's been a grand slam.
Well, especially as ratings just continue to go down all over the place, these things that are just guaranteed audiences
is the hardest thing to find. That's why WWE has become more valuable. But with UFC,
it feels like the audience is growing. It feels like they've, the one criticism or fear with UFC
was always that they wouldn't be able to regenerate stars. That's not a problem.
They just over and over again, this guy goes, this guy comes in. The women's division has been huge
for them. And you think where that was 15 years ago versus where it is now. People have real
opinions on all the different classes. And it feels like they... I don't know how many
pay-per-views they're doing a year, the real ones.
Well, 13.
Yeah.
I mean, honestly, they could probably do 20.
It's smarter that they keep it so that they're a little more special.
But they have enough fighters to do more than 12.
Yeah, but they're doing like 43 or so shows a year, which I think kind of waters down the product a little bit.
But they keep obviously
the big names for, uh, the pay-per-views. However, uh, next weekend, um, not on pay-per-view Alexa
Grasso, Valentina Shevchenko too, speaking of the, uh, the women's fighters for the flyweight title
is going to be on a regular ESPN, ESPN plus they actually got the Mexican Independence Day slot at T-Mobile before Canelo.
Canelo's fighting on September 30th against Charlo.
And so they got that slot, which is gigantic for them.
And they're doing sort of a, they're calling it Noches UFC.
And Alexa Grasso, who's from Mexico, is defending her title against Shevchenko.
So that's a huge, huge deal because that slot has always been reserved for Canelo and is
always historically a huge, huge weekend for the Mexican fight fans.
So that's another big thing that they're doing
that's coming up next week, and that's free.
I'll be interested to see how they coordinate
the WWE and UFC, the events,
and whether they try to basically own a weekend,
stagger things a certain way
where it'll be three, four-day weekends,
pick certain spots in the sports schedule
where it's like,
we just had a pretty dead August.
And it's like, do we want to try to own the second weekend of August?
This is the biggest weekend of the year for combat and WWE, stuff like that.
All right, we're running out of time.
So you have four minutes to refute my prediction
that the Buffalo Bills
will not make the playoffs this year.
You're so much better than this.
I can understand you saying they're not
as good as people think.
They shouldn't be Super Bowl favorites.
Josh Allen's window is closed. Not making the playoffs
is one of the most absurd things that I've ever heard.
It's a loaded conference.
You can't have everybody. There's only
seven seats at the dinner table, my
friend. Okay, who are
the seven teams that are ahead of them?
Off the top of your head.
I have three coming out of the
AFC North.
And then I have Miami
and I have the Pats winning a 9-8
tiebreaker against the Bills.
I know.
I know.
You had me. I was going with the
North and the Miami. Miami, I'm worried about.
I'm way more worried about Miami than New York.
I think we're going to lay the smack down on New York's
ass on Monday night. It's going to be tremendous.
But Miami
makes me nervous. I'll be honest with you.
Sometimes I come on here and
I have this very loud,
brash stance. Bill's bravado.
Yes. I don't have that.
And it's more, I'm trying to do reverse psychology.
I feel like last year we were a little too cocky.
And I almost feel like I couldn't enjoy the season because every misstep was just crushing.
It's like, oh my God, no, we're supposed to be in Glendale.
We're supposed to win the Super Bowl.
This is not the way the story is supposed to play out.
And I just think they lost steam towards the end.
A few things have happened in the off season that I don't love,
in particular, the relationship between Stephon Diggs and Josh Allen. I'm just not quite sure
what the hell is going on over there. Give us the 25 seconds on that.
I don't know. How much of it is real and how much of it is just people just have nothing to talk
about? The fact that they keep having to address it and even the way in which they do address it
makes me feel like there is something there.
And let's be honest, the end of that Bengals game
felt like something was there.
McDermott took over the defensive coaching,
you know, defensive duties.
That makes me a little bit nervous as well
because I don't know if he's the guy
that could ultimately get them over the hump.
I really miss Brian Dayball.
I think that was the guy that should have stayed
as head coach, ultimately, in retrospect.
Oh, interesting.
Yeah, that's the guy.
That's the guy that should have stayed.
He's incredible.
I love that guy.
I mean, don't you agree?
Oh, I picked the Giants to make the playoffs
really because of him.
I think he's one of the best five coaches.
I just feel like he's got to go 10.
Him and Vrabel, I'm just like, if they have a healthy team and they're pretty good, they'll get them the best five coaches. I just feel like he's got to go 10. Him and Vrabel, I'm just like,
if they have a healthy team
and they're pretty good,
they'll get them the 10 wins somehow.
Ultimately, though,
we win the AFC East.
I keep thinking about 13 seconds.
I keep wondering
if that was the time
because we would have beaten the Bengals.
We would have beaten the Rams.
I just can't stop thinking
and harping on that.
I am a pessimist.
But your take about them not making the playoffs
is absolute lunacy.
They're going to make the playoffs.
So the case is we have Josh Allen.
There's no way we'll win less than 10 games
because we have Josh Allen.
A thousand percent.
Yeah.
That's it.
But that's the only case.
No, but they have a good guy.
You don't love the team.
It's not like you have like a super talented Bill Steen.
No, we've got solid.
I mean, if Diggs is back.
No, we got Gabe Davis. The defense is solid Diggs is back, we've got Gabe Davis.
The defense is solid.
Eventually, we're getting
Von Miller back.
Come on.
Gabe Davis, four touchdowns
against the Chiefs.
No pass rush.
I actually think you're going
to lose to the Jets.
By the way, that is possible.
There's going to be a lot
of adrenaline,
a lot of excitement over that.
The Jets are not for real.
You agree with this, yes?
Oh, I totally agree.
I totally agree.
The Jets fans,
it's the most fascinating sociological experiment this year
is the Jets fans with a ton of hype.
And you have the Browns fans with some hype.
You have the Bills fans with some hype.
And the Lions fans.
And the Lions fans.
These are tortured fan bases who believe this year.
It's hilarious.
You're putting us in there with the Lions,
the Jets, and the Browns.
The Lions, Jets, and Browns are pretenders.
As tortured fan bases.
Yes, but we are contenders. We have been in
the game over the last three, four years.
We've made the AFC Championship game.
We're not those guys. Lions are just hoping to
make the playoffs.
I was more from a tortured history
standpoint. I think you guys
are all going to the same support group.
That is true.
But I do feel like we're a lot further along than those guys.
And the big difference is we have the best quarterback of that bunch.
Agreed?
I think he's one of two guys that you can say,
this guy guarantees us 10 wins.
Burrow, I'm almost there.
But I just, you know know what if he misses three games
the punishment that he takes game to game
week to week and you know
you saw it last year as soon as he got hurt
the team the destiny of the team changed
speaking of best of the bunch we have
I think the best MMA pod
the ringer MMA show
yes with our guys PT and Chuck
is Chuck did he
I know we have to go but Chuck do you feel a change in his demeanor
since the Nuggets won the title?
Is he just happier?
Does he seem peaceful?
What is it?
A thousand percent.
You nailed it, peaceful.
But also I still feel like he's on cloud 10.
Like I still feel like he's floating in the air.
He's one of the biggest Nuggets fans
and it was great that you had him on.
I still feel that joie de vivre oozing out of him. It feels like mid-June when you still speak to him. But yes, thank you for
the shout out. We'll be doing a post show after 293. We do a weekly show every Thursday and then
after every pay-per-view, post show exclusively on our Spotify feed. And yeah, it's been great
with the guys. I adore doing the show with them and long may continue. Awesome. Awesome to see you.
Enjoy UFC 293.
I'll talk to you during the season.
NFL.
Thanks, Bill.
All right.
Our guy, Ben Thompson is here.
Tortured Bucks fan.
Are you tortured again?
The title was like two years ago.
Are you back to being tortured?
I've not been on this show for a long time
because we were planning on doing a podcast
during the inevitable Buck Celtic series,
which did not materialize.
So yes, I am back to being tortured.
What's your Giannis is leaving panic meter right now
between on a scale of one to 10?
One, I mean, like there's this,
I am a Giannis fan and there is the Bucks are old
and it would be irresponsible for him to sort of blindly sign an extension I think the reality
from my perspective is he stayed in Milwaukee he won a title I would love it if he spent his
whole career there and the Bucks had a competitive team I also am not sure how I'd feel about sort of like a
Dirk Nowitzki sort of outcome where
he's just sort of on, you know, not
good enough teams in the long run.
So, I mean, I hope he does what's right for himself,
but regardless, yeah, there will
not be any hard feelings on my side and I'll
cheer for him wherever he goes.
Did they have more brothers he can sign
or like how many?
Can they start signing cousins?
Just to be clear, Thanasis is on the team
and it is ridiculous.
The other brother, Kostas,
he was cut within 24 hours.
That was just to get him onto the G League team.
So there's a lot of misinformation floating around.
The Bucks are nepotistic,
but only to one brother, not to multiple.
Or to the extent they are, it's with the G League.
So got to set the very straight.
All right.
So you wrote an awesome piece about ESPN earlier this week and what's going on with the charter deal, which I've been just watching and just kind of reading everything and listening to everything.
And there's been some good pieces and podcasts about it.
You had, I think, the most comprehensive one that basically laid out.
We're having a moment right now
where for the first time
we've seen the cable companies
kind of stare down ESPN and go,
go ahead.
We don't care.
We're good if you're not around.
And ESPN has always been able
to lord over these cable companies.
We have all these sports.
You can't have a cable bundle without us. And here's our price. And this is just it. And this
is what you'll pay. Almost like the mafia in the 1950s. Oh, it wasn't worse than that. It wasn't
worse than that. It's not just that you're going to pay our price, but you're also going to carry
ESPN2 and you're also going to carry ESPNU and ESPN2.
And you're going to carry Disney and the Disney channel.
And I remember when the first virtual MVPD came up, which is like where YouTube TV is, is the biggest one right now, where you can basically get the whole cable package, but in an app.
The first one was Sling TV.
And Sling TV launched with a very limited package
of channels, most of which didn't be mostly sports oriented. So obviously ESPN was on there,
TBS and TNT were on there. But there was one weird channel on there, which was Maker TV.
And I don't know if you remember, but Maker TV was downstream of a YouTube channel that Disney
bought. And they like made it into a cable TV channel. Like why is maker maker TV on here?
Oh, right.
Cause that was the price of getting ESPN.
So ESPN people talk about making 10 bucks per subscriber.
It's actual value is much greater because they're making what?
25 cents on maker TV.
Put that on ESPN's bank account.
Like the amount, the power they've had.
And it's gone back to the very, very beginning.
Like ESPN, the entire affiliate fee model was pioneered by ESPN.
It was pioneered over the screaming, pounding the table objections of cable operators.
But they could do it because sports got people to sign up for cable.
And it kept them on cable when satellite came along or when IPTV came along.
And the problem is they got greedy.
They took so much money out of it that it's not there's no reason to hold on to it.
And now YouTube TV, it's sitting right there.
You can keep your broadband with charter and watch the game on YouTube TV, and it's not great for them.
They would rather you have TV there because it's sticky.
It keeps you on the platform.
But ESPN's already gone over the top.
It's already available on the internet.
It's just available via YouTube TV or Hulu Live or whatever it might be.
But it destroyed Disney's leverage, and it is shocking.
You thought this happened,
it'd be play out like every other episode
that this has happened,
but media is like, actually, no.
For the first time ever, ESPN does not have leverage.
And that is, it's an earthquake.
It really is.
I remember like 2010 range
and we were trying to figure out,
this was after we 30 for 30 started taking off and we were trying to figure out this was after we
30 for 30 started taking off
and we were like
ESPN Classic was still
one of the channels
that was on there.
And me and somebody else
came up with this whole plan
to like
let's turn ESPN Classic
into like
the sports movie
classic games channel
that's fucking awesome.
People will love it.
We'll get the rights to every
we priced it out.
We figured out
what it would cost to get sports movies and we we really spent a lot. People love it. We'll get the rights to every, we priced it out. We figured out what it would cost
to get sports movies.
And we,
we really spent a lot of time on it.
And the feedback that we got back was,
we don't need to spend money on that.
It's like a ghost ship,
basically.
It doesn't cost us anything.
Right.
We,
we forced the cable companies to take it.
And it's like,
it's almost like you're at dinner.
You're like,
yeah,
throw on five desserts because the, the restaurant's comping it. Yeah it's like, it's almost like you're at dinner and you're like, yeah, throw on five
desserts because the restaurant's comping it. Yeah, we'll do some desserts and we'll take some
dessert wine. That was ESPN classic. And I just think that stuff catches up with you when you're
treating the business like that forever. And the other thing that's interesting is I can,
all right, so I don't have it on my cable, but I have ESPN plus, right? So I'm actually okay. Cause I do have cable, but I can still get ESPN. It's just like
this extra, like two steps now where I have to go to the app. Then I have to see the boxes. Then I
have to click on first take or whatever it is. I can still get it. So part of me wonders, you don't
think there's any piece of this that ESPN is trying to see during football season,
how much it will affect their business
if people don't have cable?
Well, no, but you can't get it.
Because if you want to watch
what is on the ESPN cable channel on the ESPN app.
So like, but the big date
that everyone should be paying attention to
is Monday night.
Monday night football, Jets versus Bills, both
are spectrum markets. There's nationwide interest,
particularly because Aaron Rodgers
being on the Jets. Another
person who I don't begrudge, for the record,
I blame the
Packers for that one.
Actually, for mismatching his entire career, but that's a
completely different discussion.
But that's
going to be the big question
because those are only available through the bundle.
You can't get it through the app.
If you try to get in the app,
it'll ask you to sign in
and you have to sign in with your cable carrier,
which is Spectrum,
which means it's not going to work.
But Ben Thompson,
you're not pulling this shit on me
because I'm just going to use my dad's cable signup stuff
in Boston because he's Xfinity.
And I'm going to be back in, baby.
I don't want to discuss how I get access to American TV in Taiwan.
But despite the fact that my cable service
that I was somehow watching was Spectrum,
I have figured out an alternative.
You basically have to cheat.
But yeah, it was kind of jaw-dropping
all of a sudden the ESPN.com.
And it's like, oh, all right. And then I just ended up using my dad. But you're right was kind of jaw-dropping all of a sudden the ESPN.com and I was like, oh, alright.
And then I just ended up using my dad. But you're right.
So Bill's Jets
will be the big limit test.
It's because you use your dad.
This is something the cable companies have complained about for ages.
They're like, you make it super easy to steal our streams.
And the other big thing
is everything
that makes a cable bundle valuable
has been stripped away.
Every good show has gone on to streaming.
And the problem with that is for a bundle to succeed,
you need to sort of appeal to lots of people
who are interested in lots of different things.
That's sort of the benefits.
And over time, what all these Hollywood studios did
is we can go after streaming,
we can get a multiple like Netflix,
which obviously all this looks very stupid now, but that was sort of thinking a while ago. And don't worry, we'll
still have cash flow from our cash cow because of sports. Sports will sort of keep us there.
And they failed to anticipate two things, which I think should have been clear at the time.
Number one, if you have nothing but sports, you're going to lose. Everyone doesn't care about sports.
I mean, it sounds obvious, but apparently it wasn't obvious enough. It's really sort of
accelerated. Number two is if your entire business is dependent on sports, the sports leagues will
realize that and they will do to you what you're doing to the cable companies, which is exactly
what has happened. You have these massive deals that have come along, not just the previous NBA deal, but
the NFL deals, the Big Ten was a big one sort of last year.
And so ESPN is sort of stuck in the middle, and it's not great.
It's really not a great place to be.
I mean, in this sort of value chain where whoever squeezes the most value out, usually one company tends to win. And so you have this situation where ESPN was
the winner. They would just squeeze, squeeze, squeeze, squeeze, squeeze. And the cable companies
are not winning here. Like again, it's bad for them to lose TV because it helps keep customers.
It helps to acquire customers. There's lots of benefit to having a bundle. All those are
bundled with internet, all those sorts of things. But at the end of the day,
their big business is internet.
That's where they make money
is by selling broadband.
And this is what you laid out in your piece.
Like this was the shift
that happened in the last 15 years.
That's right.
That's where all their money happens.
And so it's not that they now
have leverage over ESPN.
It's that they now have the luxury
of not caring.
And it's like, look,
you don't want to play ball.
And what Charter is asking is that Disney include the free, the ad, sorry, the ad-supported version of Disney Plus with the bundle.
So if you sign up to Spectrum, which is their cable service, you also get Disney Plus ad-supported as part of that bundle.
And they're like, what?
That's just putting back the content that you've taken away.
And I think, number one,
I think they have a point.
Number two, the problem with Disney
and with all these studios
is they want to double dip.
They want to both get all the money from cable.
Well, yeah, but they also want to get money for streaming.
And the reality is the cost of the cable bundle
has increased as outpaced inflation for years, for years and years and years because they were shielded.
Customers were shielded from the actual negotiations.
They just got mad at their cable provider for the prices going up, which poor Spectrum customer service agents, you know, they've just been dealing with shit for decades.
And now they're probably like the most of it right now.
But now that wasn't enough.
They had to also get streaming.
And Disney's like,
well, we don't want to give up
our subscribers
who signed up for Disney+.
We want them to pay us twice.
And at some point,
they have to face reality.
You're not going to end up
with customers going
from paying $100 five years ago
to paying $300 in 10 years.
There's going to be a consolidation.
And they're like, what?
The tech companies are going to save us?
Ask every other industry in the world
how well that went.
Yeah, the double, triple dip.
Because there was that one point
when they were going,
you get ESPN and Hulu and Disney
all together.
And it's for this new price of blank, right?
That sounds like a good deal. They're like, oh, I thought that was the real ESPN. No, it's for this new price of blank, right? That sounds like a good deal.
They're like,
oh, I thought that was the real ESPN.
No, it's just the fake ESPN.
Yeah.
It's like,
I'm still paying for ESPN
on my spectrum.
So I remember,
and I've talked about this
before on the pod,
but you could feel this shifting
the last two years
I was at ESPN
where for the first time
the subs started going backwards.
And I think it peaked at 100,
maybe summer of 2013.
Not just that, it peaked at 67%. I think that's the number is either revenue or profit
for Disney. Like Disney was basically the ESPN company and that's, it's not the case anymore.
Well, and they were making, I think it was like seven or 8 billion profit.
And they had what everybody who knew anything about this stuff would say,
this is the single greatest media deal anybody's ever made, where they just, people like my mom are paying $9 for ESPN,
who would literally not watch one second of ESPN. Now we're flipping. And I think the only thing
in their favor for the cable companies with, if like, this is really going to be a standoff going
forward. I think about like my mom and my dad and my wife's mom
and how much time we spend trying to fix their ability to get into apps.
Where if people over 70, like they just like, what's my Hulu?
My dad can't get into his Hulu right now.
He couldn't watch Justified, right?
There's just so much confusion and I got, and I got knocked out
and now I can't get back in.
And for those people, cable is super easy. My mom just moved to a different place and she was like,
I'm going to get cable. I'm like, just don't get cable. Just do streaming. You don't even need
cable. She's like, no, no. You don't want to be in the customer support business.
Oh, well, she was like, well, I need the internet anyway. And they offered the cable.
So I'm going to get the basic package
and I can watch CNN.
And I was like, well, you can watch CNN on,
you know, just hop on my thing.
No, I like having the channels.
So cables basically feels like it's moving
toward people 50 and up
who are too intimidated by all these apps and stuff.
And then the younger people
who know how to navigate this whole app
world, regardless, it's bad for ESPN because now there's like these two different audiences that
seem like they've split. Do you agree with that theory or what am I missing?
No, I mean, actually, there's a lot to unpack there. So number one, the old people bit is
actually a super important piece, which is they are going to be the core subscribers going forward, which is why when Bob Iger is talking about spinning out channels, it's probably going to be to like a private equity.
Remember, they bought up all those newspapers. They didn't buy up the newspapers to invest in them and make them better.
They bought them up because old people were going to subscribe until they died. And that's kind of like what's going to happen with cable, right?
There's just going to throw up.
Because they don't know how to cancel the subscription.
And it's just like, I'm used to paying for this.
And then they just keep going.
Yeah, that's number one.
Number two, but the young people issue is, to my mind, so this is a big problem for sports
in general, this ESPN issue.
Because if ESPN can't squeeze the cable companies, the sports leagues can't
squeeze ESPN.
Their ability to squeeze is downstream from that.
So that is in the short term.
That's their big issue.
Their larger issue in the long term is who are the fans of the future?
How do you actually acquire them?
When every house had cable, then the game was always on.
This has been a huge problem for RSNs.
We saw this thing happening with the Phoenix Suns, which has been sort of very interesting, where, number one, if no one has cable, how do they even start to become a fan of the team?
And the RSNs were even more extreme than ESPN in trying to squeeze money out, squeeze money out.
Well, you're talking about the Suns said, screw it.
Our games are free.
The Suns said, screw it.
Please watch them.
We don't want you to pay for this.
Yeah, no, exactly.
Which doesn't make sense economically in the short term,
but it is absolutely the right sort of move in the long run.
And the other thing is not just it being available,
it's being discoverable.
Like if you, it's a real difference in go-to-market if you're not just, you know,
use too many sort of like business terms here,
but if something people can stumble upon it
versus they have to find it and search for it.
And if they have to find it and search for it,
like you have the amount of investment it takes
to get it in their head that this is available,
that they need to go look for it.
And to your point, the whole TV ecosystem,
app ecosystem is such a mess.
Where do you even start to search, right?
Like, are you going to tell your dad about,
oh, go to this website and you put in a thing and you're going to tell you, go to this app and then
you download X, Y, Z. What's going to actually happen is the tech companies are going to solve
this. And they're going to have like the Amazon sports app. And you're going to go in that Amazon
sports app. And it's going to say, here it is. And you click a button. If you have the app installed,
it'll launch. And if you don't, it will say, download this app and subscribe. And you download this app, subscribe.
It'll be easy because it's your Amazon credentials. And guess what? Amazon is going to take their cut.
Right now, it's 30% when you sign up for apps. You say, oh, if you're in our sports app,
we're going to take 40%, whatever it is. These companies have no, they don't understand how good they had it with the cable companies.
Yes.
They fought back and forth over rates,
but the cable companies at the end of the day were just dumb pipes.
They put it all the packages together.
They did all the work to plug them all in,
to have stores of customer support,
to do all this work for them.
And they're all greedy.
And they think that in,
in like,
and it's insane.
They gave up when the best business models of all time, that's already dead. And what's going to happen is they're's insane. They gave up one of the best business models of
all time that's already dead. And what's going to happen is they're going to end up in the arms
of the tech companies. And again, that's not going to end well for them. This is exactly what tech
companies are good at. They're good at helping people find stuff. And the price of that is
all your profits. Well, 25 years ago, ESPN was the one who was good at this stuff.
The stuff George Bodenheimer did when he was president and the stuff he did with the cable
bundles, and he just locked in this price that then just became the price.
Everyone knew it was the wrong price.
It was like, no, that's our cut.
That's the deal.
Take it or leave it.
You make a great point on the Amazon app.
I don't even think people fully understand how much Apple makes from those apps.
It's not just a VIG.
This is like a 30% cut.
And every month forever.
Yeah.
I mean, I think it might go down if it's more than a year or something like that.
It varies.
I don't know.
But yeah, both Amazon and Apple and Google is getting into this game too. I think that the reason why they got the Sunday ticket
was to sort of have an anchor tenant
for their like sort of,
I don't know, they're calling it channels
or whatever it is sort of to buy
these sort of streaming services.
And yeah, it's just a natural next step.
Apple actually tried to do this in like 2015 or 2016
to have this universal interface.
It didn't work out then
because streaming was ascended.
Netflix was top of the world, right?
But what's happened today is we've gotten saturation.
And the issue that all these companies face is not customer acquisition.
It's churn prevention.
Churn is what obliterates a sort of subscription business.
And the problem here is, number one, you've made your price visible to customers when it used to be hidden in the cable bundle.
Number two, you've made it easy to cancel.
Easy to cancel is great for the customer and it's terrible for business.
And so they have this issue where, like, I think Charter actually has it right.
They're saying, Disney, bring your streaming service into the bundle.
I'm sure they're going to make the same offer everyone else.
And this is actually good.
Yes, you don't get a double dip,
but number one, that wasn't sustainable in the long run.
And number two, if your service
is part of a bunch of other services,
people aren't going to cancel.
And like that is really, really important.
And I don't know, like they just,
all these, you can understand it.
They built their bones.
They built their business on this old model.
They can't let go of it.
And they can't realize that.
Look, John Malone, who was pounding on the table 40 years ago, mad at ESPN for raising rates.
And now he's on the board of charter, like getting his final revenge.
He needs to be your partner.
Like that's actually going to be the best outcome for you.
But the best thing
doesn't always happen
in business
and it probably won't here either.
So, two mistakes
ESPN made
or ESPN slash Disney
and then one that
worked out, right?
One was
they waited too long
to really get tech
to get the ESPN app,
the Disney app,
all that stuff.
It was like about two years.
They started,
I think after they should have,
and they were outsourcing a lot of it.
And then they frantically tried to fix that,
but it was good technology,
but yeah.
Yeah.
They got,
but they got a late start.
I think in retrospect,
they might've started that whole thing sooner.
The,
um,
the good thing they did was the UFC deal because
I think that was really smart
and we talked to Ariel about that actually
before you, but just
they got a really good price on that and was able to drive
the ESPN Plus stuff.
Not getting in on gambling in time
I think was a pretty big mistake. Not
massive, not going to tilt the company,
but to watch them...
You kind of understand it though, right?
Like that's not really Disney.
Well, but they would have said that about UFC too.
And then they got into UFC, you know,
and they had a chance, I think,
to be one of the power players in it four or five years ago.
And they waited, they waited, they waited.
Then they belated, they got in
where it just seemed like they grabbed some money.
But when I look at like, it's not like they're going under. It's not like they're going to lose money next year. But I think the difference is
they were the ATM machine for Disney forever. And now I think it's down to 3 billion profits,
but then the NBA deal hasn't happened yet. UFC deal is coming in two years.
Now you're losing more subs. What is that number going to look like?
We got to ask about the NBA deal,
man.
I mean,
the NBA is in a bad spot that they did not get this deal done before this
happened.
Because again,
a bad spot for the NBA,
you mean a bad spot for the NBA?
Because you know,
the NBA,
they bring a lot of inventory to the table.
That's what they'll tell you left and right.
Right.
Like we fill up all these weeknights in the middle of winter and spring when nothing else is on and it's high value content. The finals are
pretty well watched and all the things that they will tell you about. But the issue is if you're
going sort of over the top and that's sort of the future for ESPN and in this world where the
customer is in control and you refuse to sort of bundle what's preventing your, your subscriber
from subscribing in August, watching the NFL season and unsubscribing in February. And they
don't really care about the NBA and like the NBA is out here saying we're going to like triple our
rights deal. That's not going to happen. I mean, I I'm sure they will get a deal done, but I, but
this is the worst possible time for them because, again, their whole bit about being
able to triple their rights deal or extract all this money from ESPN, it's dependent on ESPN
being able to extract that money from the cable carriers. And if the cable carriers say no,
where's the money going to come from? And you have this extra bit when ESPN does go over the top and make just the real ESPN app available, not just the sort of neutered one.
It's going to take a while to sign up customers.
That's why they want to get a partner to help them out because it just takes time to build that revenue to make up for revenue that they're losing.
And the last thing you can afford at that time is having to pay out billions and billions of dollars on a rights deal. So again, I think that the safe thing to say is number one, this will probably be
resolved, but it might not be. Number two, the NBA will probably get an increase, but it's not as
sure as it seemed literally a week ago. Right. Well, so I think that I should say, I'm sure it
will go up, but you get my point well two things
with nba yeah it's going to go up but is it going to go up two times as much and the predictions of
we're going to have twice as much money in the seller cap stuff like that i two things on the
on the nba deal that i think are interesting one is that i don't know what kind of you know
competitor warner brothers is when warn Warner Brothers is cutting money left and right.
They own Turner.
Turner's always apparently half of it.
Yeah.
Well, the reason they're even more dependent than Disney on the cash flow from their cable channels.
Totally.
They're doing the same thing.
They've double dipped.
They took all their good content off.
They put it on HBO Max. And if Charter turns around and does the same thing to TNT, that's going to go downstream
to what can TNT afford to pay the NBA?
Well, and then also if you're the NBA, and they've always wanted their stuff on cable.
That's why ESPN and Turner got the last deals.
And that's where the people are.
That's the old school credibility of just being on an old school TV network, things like that. I don't know. Does
that exist in the same way anymore? Like they were tonight we have, we're taping this before
chief's lines tonight, but it's going to be on Amazon, right? And people are going to watch it.
We, I don't know if the rating is exactly the same as it would have been on NBC, but it'll be,
you know, people will see it. And do you need that same, oh no, we have to be on cable because that's the way we've
always done it. I think Warner Brothers is going to lose that side of it. And maybe they'll get
like a token here. You've been our partner for so long. Here's this little whatever. But I think
one of those conferences for the playoffs is going on Apple or Amazon or wherever. And I think NBC slash Universal is going to be a real threat to the ESPN side of things.
And they have some of the same limitations ESPN has. But I think,
you know, I just don't think it's a slam dunk. We have either partner back.
Yeah. I mean, before last week, I would have said it's going to be the same too, for sure.
And the reason is, again, they both companies need the cash flow.
And in a cable context, the NBA does make a lot of sense.
And they have the existing franchises.
So that would have been my case.
This bit about what if the cable, what if other companies do what Charter is doing, does change the calculus a bit.
I would still sort of favor those two.
But the other thing I would add is the NFL is different.
Like the NFL, like we talk, you talk about like print,
like the internet did a print in newspapers.
We talked about, you know, buying newspapers
so you can collect money from people until they die, right?
Very morbid thought.
The exception here is the New York Times.
You can't use the New York Times to talk about newspapers
because they've actually figured out how to build
like a worldwide franchise with direct subscribers. And like, and what they've done is they've actually figured out how to build like a worldwide franchise with direct subscribers and like and what they've done is they've the new york times has basically taken
the market of every other newspaper you could be living in madison wisconsin are you going to
subscribe to the incre the crappy wisconsin state journal you describe the new york times
because the new york times there's no more geographic constraint to what you're going
to subscribe to.
And so there's a bit where the lessons you take from that aren't really applicable to
everyone else.
And I think that applies to the NFL.
The NFL is so dominant.
The NFL could go direct.
The NFL is happy to outsource all the work to these other channels.
But even then, even you go back to that first ESPN deal with the NFL, the NFL takes basically
all the money. Now, ESPN would do the NFL, the NFL takes basically all the money.
Now, ESPN would do that deal because it benefits the rest of the channel.
It gets people to sign up.
Halo.
Exactly.
It wouldn't in the promo a bit and the highlights and all those sorts of things.
There's stuff that comes with the NFL that goes with it.
The issue for the NBA is it's not clear that they're that, that they have that sort of broad-based effect.
This is where the chatter about ratings and stuff like that over the last decade,
it actually did matter. One of the challenges of the internet is once you go direct to consumer,
number one, you're exposing your price to consumers when it was hidden before.
And number two, consumers can't, it's performance based. It's are they actually watching or not?
Are they actually subscribed or not?
Cable TV has never been performance based.
It's just everyone signed up by default.
And so you have all these companies that don't even have the muscles to operate in a performance based world.
And that goes for all the content, too.
That goes for including the NBA.
I don't know how it plays out.
I'm with you.
I think ESPN is still a favorite.
I think Warner Brothers is not a favorite anymore.
I just think the money that they've been cutting back
and how panicked they seem to be about the budgets in general.
And I just...
Right, but they're cutting on streaming.
The key thing is because they still get a lot of money from the cable bundle.
And the number one reason why they make money off the cable bundle is TNT.
And it's because of the NBA.
The NBA is like the winch pin of their cash flow.
But you just laid out the case.
The cable companies know this.
Right.
So it's like you're going to pay all this money for the nba
because of the relationship you have with us so let's change the terms right no that's exactly
right like it definitely is much much more in the air than then sort of sort of it was previously
and i mean at the end of the day the cable companies do they really do want tv it is worth
pointing out right like all these new fiber build outs, you know, that are like just just Internet.
Right. And they'll come packaged like YouTube TV, though.
That's real. That's that's the real threat to cable is that you start your Internet somewhere else.
And so if you habituate people to using things like YouTube TV, yes, you win this dispute with ESPN.
But you're actually laying the groundwork for you to lose the customer in the long run.
They would rather have the bundle.
They'd rather have everything sort of wrapped together.
So there is interest on that side to make a deal.
But I think that basically bundles are good for everyone.
That's the other thing.
The NBA was like, oh, the NBA can just go direct to customers.
No, they can't.
To get the same money with the current number of customers,
the price would have to be like $50 per customer per month, which not only are you going to lose people because it's too high, but also how are you going to ever get new fans if access to your games is $50 a month?
Being on ESPN is good for the weeks.
So we have to tip over from this extraction approach to, look, we have to find actual win-win solutions here.
From day one,
ESPN versus the cable networks
versus the content providers
has been this oppositional fight.
We're fighting over who gets what.
And the only way
any of them are going to survive
is they actually start partnering
and figuring out things
that work for both of them
or else again,
the tech's just going to take everything.
Well, you talk about threat.
This is a good thing to end on.
The bigger threat,
even bigger than everything we've just talked about
is the under 25 generation.
Right, that just doesn't watch sports.
The over 50 generation
and people like my dad and my mom,
they're just used to having cable
and you're always going to have those people,
but eventually they're going to age out.
Then there's like our kind of generation where we can navigate both worlds.
And then there's my 18 year old daughter and 15 year old son who literally don't know what channel
to go to, to watch a show there. They just go to Netflix, they go to YouTube and they go to TikTok
and that's it. And that's going to be the next generation of quote-unquote cable bundle buyers,
and they're not going to care.
They're just not.
Yep.
And are they going to even watch games, right?
Are they just going to be happy watching highlights
or what flows past sort of on social media?
I watched it with my son last year.
He followed the NBA season through TikTok.
He really did.
He would sit down and watch
like maybe a half a quarter, a quarter,
but he always knew what was going on
and he would get his information
from these fucking weirdos
on TikTok and YouTube.
These guys who are just like,
top five jokes of the day,
number five, run on.
You know, it's just this,
it's like, what world is this?
Are these people going to replace me?
They just shout?
We just bought a new channel for Ringer. That was excellent.
At the end of the day, the thing with digital is everything's just bits.
That's part of the reason all this stuff can shift around and it can be duplicated
endlessly. That's the magic of the internet. And it is not so
magical if you're a content producer that is used to having scarce
control of your content.
But the real issue is that on
the internet, in this world, the
only scarce resource is time.
It's the users,
the viewers' attention. And
there's so much competition for that today.
From TikTok, from
social media, from video games,
from the fact
that we still have like five gazillion hours of TV
produced every year to all these sports, right? Like I've gotten into F1 recently when I'm
watching F1 game, I'm not watching a basketball game. Like, and this world of abundance where
the core fan base for all these American sports were people like you and I, who on a Sunday
afternoon to watch the NBA and NBC and like, you and NBC, and that was the game of the week,
and you'd sit there and watch it with your dad.
The very idea of that is nonsensical today.
And the question is, who's going to put up with watching
two-and-a-half-hour games that have 14 reviews,
and people aren't trying, the stars are sitting out?
The 10-year, 15-year year, 20 year risk is absolutely massive.
Yeah.
I don't know if this is how it's going to play out, but it does remind me of what was
happening to, as the internet was really starting to win in that 04 to 06 range.
And we had all of these legacy magazines and newspapers.
Yep.
That were like.
That's exactly what's going to happen.
They were.
And I was watching it.
I even think I might've given a couple of interviews back in the day, but watching it.
And it was like, Sports Illustrated doesn't get it.
Like the internet's going to beat Sports Illustrated.
They're like, we're Sports Illustrated.
We're fine.
And all of a sudden you're not fine.
The other thing, and I may or may not have some personal experience with this from the last few years, but if you have a bad strategy or a strategy that isn't going to totally work, but it takes a
couple of years to unwind a strategy and to audible to the strategy that might have a better chance.
And I think with some of this stuff, like you can't just all of a sudden say, oh shit,
it's time for plan B
where the cable money is not going to be there.
This is like a multi-year.
Now we got to do this
and this chess piece has to go here.
And it's not something you just flick in two minutes.
Yeah, that's one of the challenges for Disney
is Bob Iger has been talking over the last few months.
Well, yeah, ESPN is definitely going over the top.
They're like, when's it going to happen?
He's like, I'm not going to say,
but I have a date.
I have a pretty good date sort of in mind.
And it's like, that is the attitude
and approach of a company that's on top
that has control.
And the problem, the biggest sign
that ESPN is no longer on top
and doesn't have control
is what's happened this week.
Like, reality is happening to them.
They've been dictating reality for everyone in the cable ecosystem for 40 years.
And suddenly it's getting dictated to them.
And they, I think, are completely unprepared.
It's a whole new world.
Even Nathan Hubbard, our friend, was so excited that Taylor Swift just said,
yeah, screw it.
I'm just going to release this concert film
and I'm just going directly to the distributor.
Matt Bellany did a good job covering this.
With AMC.
She's like, I'm just going right to AMC.
I don't need the middleman anymore.
I'm just going to do it this way.
And he's like, whoa.
Okay.
And that's just shit like that's going to keep happening.
It feels like we're entering this wild,
wild West world that kind of like the last time we've been in a situation
like this was the late nineties.
Yeah.
When something was clear.
And then we haven't even talked about AI yet,
which is the other thing.
What we've got,
what it is,
you,
you nailed it on the head.
What we are going through is a replay of the newspaper magazine demise
where the internet comes along.
It's like, wow, we can reach so many new customers. This is great. And it's like, oh, wow,
everyone in the world can reach so many more customers. Suddenly our advantage was not based
on our August name. It was based on the fact that we had a geographic monopoly or we had access to
newsstands and immediately option available. Yes. And, and that, once that went away and you didn't
have the cost structure to sort of compete, you were carrying these huge costs, these huge legacy
newsrooms and print operations that just made it unviable is great for me. I'm a one person sort
of shop. I can like, I have low costs. The internet is a big advantage, but I'm starting
from scratch. You're not sort of coming from again. I mean, this is one of the most overused
phrase in general is that Hemingway quote, you know, how'd you go bankrupt, you know, gradually then suddenly. But it's difficult to imagine a situation where that's more appropriate than here, where this this bit about, cord cutting sharply accelerated. And the reason it accelerated
was for years, Charter and Comcast and all these cable companies, if you called up to say,
I want to drop my cable, it's too expensive, they'd give you a deal. Say, oh, you come back,
right? There's a whole joke on the internet, right? Y'all got to do my regular cancel call
to get my rate. And four or five years ago they
said you know what we're not doing it anymore if you want cable you're gonna pay full price if you
want to go you can go that was the actual warning sign that was when espn sort of started crapping
its pants because that that that was the first indicator of we're willing to let this go and
it's accelerated sharply since then.
But even then,
it was hard to imagine a world.
It's hard to imagine
what's happening right now.
We have 12%, 13% of the country
that cannot get ESPN right now.
That's mind-blowing.
But it was also sort of inevitable.
And we're here
and they're going to have to figure it out.
Fascinating stuff. You can subscribe to Ben's Stratechery newsletter, which I've been reading,
I think, at least for the last 10 years, but it's fantastic. And you have some podcasts too.
Plug the pods before we go. Yeah. Well, I just have a big podcast about this today,
Sharp Tech. It's actually a free episode.
There's some free episodes, some paid.
But yeah, I'll get into this for like a good hour,
dive into the different details.
Or yeah, go to shertechery.com.
Just search for Ben Thompson.
It's easier than spelling it.
And it'll be right on top.
And yeah, see if you like it.
And if you like it, there's some free stuff
and you can always subscribe.
I'll always be grateful.
But regardless, it's good to be back
and it's good to have spent minimal time on the bucks.
Maybe I'll be back this spring. That will be the hope.
Oh, you'll be back sooner than that. Good to see you. Uh, thanks for staying up late for us too.
Sounds good. I'll talk to you later.
All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Ben Thompson, Ariel Hawani.
Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing as well. Don't forget about Cousin Sal's winning weekend
on Fandle TV on Friday,
as well as the premiere of Ringer Wise Guys
on Sunday, 11 a.m. on Fandle TV
and all the Ringer social and digital platforms.
Very, very, very excited about that.
Good luck, fellas.
And you can hear the Ringer Gambling Show as well,
where not only is East Coast Bias there
with a look ahead to the weekend,
but also Warren Sharp and Joe House on Fridays as well for this season.
Ringer NFL Show, Ryan Rosillo.
We're all over the place.
So that's it.
Enjoy the weekend.
Go Holy Cross.
Come on, baby.
Mama needs a new pair of shoes.
And go Emerson, too.
We need to win.
See you on Sunday night with the cuts. Yes, we can. On the wayside.
I'm a person never lost.
And I don't have to be alone.
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