The Bill Simmons Podcast - Knicks vs. Nets, Giants vs. Jets and Million-Dollar Picks With Sean Fennessey, John Jastremski and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: December 23, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by John Jastremski and Sean Fennessey to discuss the sliding Knicks, how to fix the roster, and the Nets’ quest for relevance in New York (2:12). They also discuss a sad state of affairs for New York football, whether the Giants or the Jets are in a better position for the 2022 season, and more (27:46). Then Bill talks with NFL Network’s Peter Schrager about Pro Bowl selections, the surging Colts, and MVP candidates (45:13), before making the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 16 (1:02:37). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: John Jastremski, Sean Fennessey, and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, if you missed any of our films from the Music Box series on HBO, you can get all of them on HBO Max. They're all streaming, including the latest one, Juice WRLD Into the Abyss. Check it out, HBO Max. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes

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Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel like to catch your pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across

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on Wednesday. Amanda Dobbins and I did Father of the Bride. 30th anniversary. A movie that my perspective has changed on as I ended up

having a daughter. So yeah, we talk about that. We talk about why this movie has aged so beautifully and why it is still the ultimate wedding movie.

So there you go. Check it out, The Rewatchables. We might have one next week too. I thought we were going to take next week off. Now I'm not sure. There's been rumors of Chris Ryan and I doing Limitless. Just rumors. It's been percolating.

I know Woj mentioned something in the tweet. Shams Arania, I know he alluded to it in one of his tweets, but we're not officially reporting it, but there's rumors. Limitless is definitely, our scouts are there scouting Limitless. So stay tuned next week. Who knows? Speaking of staying tuned, on FanDuel Sportsbook, we've been crushing it.

We did a same game parlay for Celts Cavs on Wednesday. It was, I think, Tatum over rebounds. Brown for at least three threes Celtics to win. It hit. We've been hitting. We cost FanDuel $1.7 million last week with underdog parlay. We're going to try to cost them more money this week. Sorry, FanDuel. This is what we do. Peter Schrager and I are going to do a million dollar picks a little bit later, trying to get the jump on Thursday's Titans game, Titans-Niners, because that's the only game

where we actually know everybody who's playing. So we want to put some money on that. That's coming later in the podcast. First, John Jastrzemski from our New York, New York podcast and Sean Fennessey, who you know very well from this podcast, from the rewatchables, from the big picture. We're going to talk about the state of New York basketball.

First, our friends from Pro Gym. All right, we're taping this. It is Thursday morning Pacific time. John Jastrzemski is here from the New York, New York podcast. Sean Fennessey is here from the Big Picture podcast. But diehard Knicks fan who's just dismayed. Usually, Fennessey, usually you're happy. There's screeners, holiday movies, Oscar season, getting

the best directors putting out the best stuff and yet you're just traumatized. The Knicks have somehow gone backwards and you're bummed out. Funny how I always get the call when things are not looking good for the Knicks to come on the BS podcast. I've noticed that. Or anything for that matter, by the way. I feel like never

positive sports news with Sean Fantasy on the BS podcast. Never. It's tough. It is true. He's like the Grim Reaper. But you did come last year when the Knicks were looking frisky and good. We did have you on there to talk about how good things were looking. As I recall, the last time I was on was when they got their clocks cleaned by Trey Young

at MSG. Maybe that's fair. That's fair. Fair enough. Look, New York between the Knicks going backwards and the Nets kind of in this amorphous, are we a real contender? Are we not? Now the Kyrie thing. JJ, I got to ask you, do people care about the Nets in New York? I asked you that last year. I'm going to ask you it again because the Knicks have been boring to watch and the Nets have been really interesting for a variety of reasons. But Rich Kleinman, KD's agent,

had a tweet after Curry lit up MSG and it was Curry, Curry, Curry. Meanwhile, Durant was in this incredible stretch and he's like, wow, why is Curry, basically all due respect to Curry, but why is he getting all this attention? KD's right down the street crushing it. And everybody was like, because he picked the fucking Nets.

Give us your take. Yeah, it's obvious when you play for that franchise, you are the little brother. And it's not even little brother where it's Jets, Giants, and it's Yankees, Mets, where there is a vocal, loud fan base that is out there, that is present, that you see, that you hear from. Yeah, think about it. Curry lights up MSG, breaks the record. What was it? Tuesday night, like a week ago, two weeks ago. It doesn't matter that the rank goes for 50. We all know he's the best player in the world. We all know he's a stud, but the idea of New York City caring day in and day out about what

the Brooklyn Nets are doing is just simply not the case. If you are a net fan, you care. But the idea that it is like pulling in the rest of New York and that they are captivated by the Nets is nonsense. Well, what's interesting is DeAndre Jordan seems like he's patient zero for a lot of the problems here, right?

Because he goes to the next one, next one, KD's a free agent or about to be a free agent. Plays there for a couple months. A lot of people have mentioned this, reported it, whatever, but the feeling is that he told them, he told KD and Kyrie and Rich Kleiman, it's kind of a shit show over here. I don't think you should. Then all of a sudden, they're going to the Nets. Now, you think, all right, it's more

professionally run now that they have Leon Rose and his cold crew. But yeah, Sean, the incompetency still remains. They had a lot of cap space last year. And if you really go through how they spent it and who they made their bets on and then how much flexibility they have right now, it's kind of a disaster. The only good thing is they have some good young players that I think the fans like. But think back to last summer, how it turned out versus what you were hoping for.

Like a 1 out of 10? It's not ideal. I'm not as down on it as I think some people are because they're basically two-year deals, all of those deals. The Fournier deal,

the Nerland's Noel deal, even D. Rose, who has been basically the heart and soul of the team for the last six months, who just got hurt. He's basically on a two-year deal. They all were originally reported as three-year deals, and they all have team options. So it's

not an outright fiasco, but the challenging thing is they have basically six young guys under the age of 24 who I'm either somewhat interested in or deeply emotionally connected to. And Tibbs is not known for playing young guys. And so we've got a lot of people in protocols. We've got a couple of injuries now on the team. I want to see Deuce McBride. I want to see Quentin

Grimes. I want to see Obi Toppin play one game for more than 30 minutes. He's never done that in his career. RJ has to obviously take another step. If those guys actually improve, I'm not really going to be too bummed out about the Fournier deal long-term. The thing is, what moves should they have made? That's the question that we have to ask ourselves. I feel like they really wanted Fred VanVleet and he was never going to leave Toronto. So you take VanVleet off the board. What should the Knicks have done this offseason? I wanted Ball. That was the guy I was beating the drum for. I wanted Ball. So I said guy I was beating the drum for. I wanted Ball. So I said that, I think, in March or April. I know he went for crazy money. Fournier's a stiff. He's

impossible to watch because if he does not hit, and listen, Simmons, you know this, if he doesn't hit threes, what good does he provide? He's an awful defender. He just looks like a fish out of water half the time. And I'm with you, Fennessey. Play the kids. I want to see the youngsters on this team playing a ton over the next few weeks. But with Rose going down for two months, this unwillingness to play Kemba Walker, which is just super weird. I mean, very, very bizarre when you think about it. When these guys get out of protocols, yeah, you should be playing a ton of your young players. I don't think the Kemba thing is super weird because I watched him for two years in Boston

and I thought he was washed when you signed him. He got crushed last year in any head-to-head matchup against a good point guard. He can't guard anybody. He doesn't have lift. He can't get to the rim. I think the Knicks fans found that out pretty quickly. JJ, I'm with you on Lonzo because I wanted the Celtics to get him too.

And who knows if the Bulls had some secret deal with him, you know, at all-star break last year, because it seemed like that went really fast where he was all of a sudden there. But I think one of the ironies of this Knicks season, you look at that, basically the Lonzo-DeRozan combo in Chicago, how successful it's been.

That's kind of the alternate universe for the Knicks. Yeah. They easily could have ended it. All they had DeRozan was basically, who's the highest bidder? And Chicago was the only one offering anything like mid-20s and up. Knicks had that money. And then Lonzo was another one. They would have had to maybe, maybe they have to give up some of the picks that they had.

Maybe even quickly needs to be in that. But there had to have been an alternate universe where that happened. Sean's nodding sadly. Well, the problem with the Kemba thing to me ultimately is they already had two guys who filled the exact role that Kemba could fill. They had two undersized guards who are score first. They have Quickly and they have Derrick Rose. So he was basically duplicative. I still think Kemba can be a useful player in a

second unit on an NBA team. The idea of him being cast as the starting point guard on the New York Knicks, which is something we wanted for 10 years in New York, it just was two years too late. We got him. It's a long time. See, I didn't look at it that way, though, Fennessey, when they brought him in, because I figured with Rose, you'd kind of have that split action. And what surprised me with the Walker thing is, look, Bill's right. He can't move on defense. He's clearly not the player he once was. But you even saw it Saturday night against the Celtics.

He can give you instant offense at times for 10 to 15 to 20 minutes if you use him properly. So this idea that he just was banished and was completely taken out of the rotation, that to me is what surprised me more than anything else because that was strange. Not the idea that he's not the player he once was, the idea that he's not playing at all. Tibbs has been talking about this,

and whenever he's asked about it, he's like, I see Kemba as a starter, and that's all he says. He doesn't explain why he has not turned him into some sort of super sub. It's a really weird obfuscation of whatever's going on there. Because I agree, Jayden. He's like a good 15 minutes a night guy. He points off the bench.

But if they had a big, rangy, Lonzo-esque guy starting, Kemba would be an interesting change of pace off the bench. But unfortunately, they already have two guys who are just like Kemba. You know what's funny about Kemba? I was thinking about this because I went to the Celtics-Sixers game the other night, and Cantor had to play a ton of minutes, right? And Cantor is one of these guys that— Well, Freedom, whatever his name is.

I'm sorry. I think it's Freedom. I texted you about that. When did that happen? Yeah, a couple weeks ago. My bad, Ennis. But he had to play a ton of minutes because all the other centers were out. He's somebody that would get DMPs from sometimes.

But when you watch him and you're relying on him for 40 minutes, he's not bad. Like he's weirdly reliable and he's been in spots. But then like last night, the Cavs were playing the Celtics and they had to play taco fall. Same reason. And it's like, yeah, he's not terrible. They're like these oddity guys. Isaiah Thomas is like this on the Lakers that if you're really depleted and you're relying on them, they might actually do well. And I think Kemba fits that category. It's like whatever your giant detriment is as a player, when COVID wipes out seven guys in the roster, all of a sudden it's like, all right, let's give this guy a whirl. And I think,

sadly, Deion Waiters, I think, has missed his calling. JJ, let's talk about the elephant in the room. And it's a big elephant and it's an expensive elephant. In fact, I'm going to tell you how expensive it is. It is 21.7 for this year, 26.1 next year, 26.2, 30.3 in the 2024-25 season and 32.4 player option 25-26 for a guy named Julius Randle who was one of the best 15 players in the league last year who now no longer makes threes and has crashed back to what he looked like in New Orleans which is a 19-10 guy

not a very good outside shooter kind of a ball stopper and I guess the question is did teams figure him out or was last year an aberration because it's one or the other I don't think he's as good as he was last year you know what I mean like it's last year was like the peak to me of what Julius Randall is going to be as an NBA player and listen the Knicks are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place because you want to make your franchise appealing. So when you have a guy who's top 15 and he's on all NBA teams and he's the most improved player, you can make the

argument it looks bad if you don't reward a guy like that. But then when you look at some of those contractual numbers over the next couple of years, That is scary, scary stuff. And I don't think we're getting a better version of Julius Randall. Maybe he's going to be a little bit better, Bill, than what he was in New Orleans. But the guy we saw last year, I'm sorry, we're not getting that over the next five years. And that's a problem for the next. That's a big, big problem. Well, they also made the key mistake, Sean. They extended him and it seemed like a fair price. You know, it wasn't like a $40 million a year or anything crazy like that, but it was an extension coming off a catastrophic playoff series. And you know, sometimes the playoffs can change the course of somebody's career. Teams can figure

out. I remember this happened to Anton Walker. He, who was an all-star was one of the best 20 guys in the league and Kmart in the Nets playoff series. They had two years in a row. And after the second time they played them in 03, Kmart just kind of ruined his career. Like he was never the same. He destroyed him and he really exposed him as like, you can't post up and you're not a really good, uh, three point shooter either up and you're not a really good three-point shooter either and you're not a good free-throw shooter. What are you? And Antoine kind of went a tailspin from that point on. I wonder with what

happened with Randall and the Hawks last year if he's just at a different spot now where something got exposed. What do you think, Sean? It's possible. I think obviously the game plan for him in that playoff series was really, really good and the Haw Hawks were really long. And so they were able to contain him throughout. And he took a lot of bad shots. And you could see his frustration in that series. I don't I don't think we should underestimate like how much he basically changed the Knicks. It felt by himself in one season. I mean, we're wearing one mellow season. The Knicks have been kind of a disaster for a decade. And he gave everybody hope, excitement.

You know, we had a genuine, you know, a genuine all-star, a genuine leader, a genuine transformational story. Not just for the team, but for him himself. You know, like I was all in. I believed it was legit. Everything I watched, it seemed like, all right,, this guy for whatever reason, he figured it out. He's still a good passer this year, which is, last year was the first time you would ever realize that he could be more of a playmaker. I think the challenge that they have is, they don't have a pure

point guard on the team, and so a lot of the playmaking falls to him. The person I would like to see do more playmaking is RJ, but the offense is still running through Randall a lot. I would be fascinated to know what kind of a player he is with more of a court general, with more of a Chris Paul type

who is essentially running an offense because he doesn't really have... That offense is very, very stagnant still despite having more shooters. So I don't know, how does he evolve as a player? He's 27. He should be right into his prime. The shooting has taken a step back this year, but the shooting has taken a step back

for every single player on the Knicks. They shot out of their minds in 2021. So I don't know. I mean, it raises the question of like, what should they do? Like who should they be pursuing somebody at the trade deadline? Should they be just keeping their powder dry

and, you know, holding out for a good draft pick? I genuinely don't know what direction they should take for them. They're in a very, very weird spot. They're in a weird, weird spot because last year was such a feel-good year. They obviously wanted to be a playoff team again this year. And I guess that's not out of the realm. I mean, you look at the East, five through like 12 is like separated by what,

like two or three games. So you've got a soft party schedule. You rattle off a couple of wins. Then you can maybe get to where you need to be. But like, they're not anywhere close to being like what you'd call elite championship contender, that sort of deal. So they need better dudes.

Like sometimes the NBA, you know this, it's about stars. It's about having dudes. They don't have enough of that. They don't, Who is the guy like you're hoping Barrett is eventually going to be a guy where you're like, all right, this is a perennial, legitimate all star player. And he hasn't had the year and he hasn't taken that leap forward this season. And I thought he was going to quite frankly, you know, they're 14 and 17.

You think like last year, Rose saved their bacon in a lot of games, right? There were games where they were down 8, down 12, and the Rose lineup would come in and they would fight back. And Rose hasn't been Rose this year and now he's hurt. And then, so you got that. You have Rando who was a 40% three-point shooter last year.

Now he's down to like low 30s. And that's cost them five points a game. So if you just say those two things, it makes sense that they're not as good as last year. Also the East is better. And then I thought RJ point is the key point to me because the Randall thing, him going backwards, I can't say I'm shocked based on what happened at Atlanta.

And I had a lot of reservations about the extension because I would rather have them play it out, have them earn whatever the big extension is. Let's see, was last year for real or not? The RJ thing, I mean, he was 17.6 last year for points, 44% field goal. This year he's 15 points a game and 40% field goal. And I'm not just talking stats. I test too. I thought he actually looked pretty confident in November. There was like a two-week stretch where it's like, oh, here he comes. And since then, it's been a cratering. And now it's like, can that guy be even the chess piece? Like, let's say you're trying to get De'Aaron Fox,

which Verno and KOC talked about on the mismatch, which has been rumored for a while. He's a Kentucky guy. Obviously, they love the Kentucky guys. You could argue Fox on a new team, you're getting a distressed asset. But I don't know how you get him if RJ's not in the deal. And if I'm the Kings,

I don't know how RJ is the centerpiece of a Fox deal. Where do you stand on him, Sean, in year three? I still believe he had a horrible, horrible November in a way that I don believe he had a horrible, horrible November in a way that I don't even really understand what happened.

He shot like 35% from the field. This is like a 6'7 wing shooting 35% from the field for an entire month. He would have plenty of nights where he would just go 2 for 13 inexplicably. In December, before he went into COVID protocols, he looked a little better.

I actually don't really want to give him up for a piece. I'd still think... I want to build with him, too. He's 21. He's 21 years old. I still think there's so much untapped potential that's there. I'm with you there, Fantasy. He's the third pick in the draft. It's always

going to haunt you, okay? You could have had John Morant. You're not saying that as much about Zion now because he's like 500 pounds. That's a story story for a different day. And that was the guy every Knicks fan wanted. But you want to have this guy who's like the homegrown guy, the third pick. There's so much likeability with the player. You almost want to see somehow, some way it's paid forward. And one note about this year, and I had a funny feeling this was going to happen. The Knicks took advantage of all these teams a year ago. The bubble, the long time in the bubble. Knicks didn't have that. Nobody was in the bubble for

that team. So they came in fresh. It's Tibbs' first year. They're taking names. They're kicking ass. They're playing 110% every single night. Well, you're coming off 82 games of that. These teams are a lot more recharged, and the East, it's a lot better. I mean, there's like two or three hideous teams in the

Eastern Conference. Detroit's hideous. Orlando's hideous. By the way, they lost to them twice at Madison Square Garden. Outside of that, everybody can play. Right. Cleveland being better wasn't great for them. The weirdest thing with RJ for me is there's a real difference with his home splits and his road splits this year.

He's bad at home. Yes. And I don't really understand that. He's the type of guy, I would think all their young guys would be way better at home. And he's the opposite. Look, the contracts, I don't care if they're two-year deals, whatever. The contracts that made no sense to me,

New Orleans going in for two years for him for like 18 million. I just don't get it. I think you can get Big Ben on the minimum. Kemba, another one. So you're paying 17.5 million just for New Orleans and Kemba this year, which to me is just nonsensical. And then you're paying $17.5 million just for New Orleans and Kemba this year, which to me is just nonsensical.

And then you're paying that next year too. Burke's for a nine and a half. I'm okay with. I think he's a rotation guy. He's good. He's good. So I'd sign off on that. And then he gave Rose $28 million guaranteed

based on how he played last year. But Rose is old and Rose has had a lot of injuries. And the odds of Rose being able to make it through another full season when they, you saw what happened to him in the playoffs when they were putting big miles on him. And then Fournier, I had a bad experience with in Boston for obvious reasons. He sucked, but he had COVID. You could talk yourself into it. Oh, maybe I get it. He's somebody, the ball can move with them. They needed another facilitator. But you've seen a lot of the warts and it might not be a big city guy. JJ, it seems like you don't like this team. You know what it is? Last year was so much fun

and it was so enjoyable day in and day out. They get off to the 501 start. I'll tell you what drove me insane. The stupid bing-bong videos. I'm so over it. Like, thank goodness they have finally, like, retired. They're playing bing-bong. They're down 25 points in Madison Square Garden. I don't want to hear it. Please, I don't want to hear it.

There is something, Bill, that's missing with the Knickerbockers. I don't know how to describe it. They're not moving the ball as well. They're not defending as well. You're trying to figure out why to get off to slow starts. What's the ideal starting lineup? It's just like a bad, bad mix

that's been like building and building and building over the last couple of weeks. And it could change. That's kind of like my saving grace. I'm holding out hope that I don't see it changing. Well, I'm trying to be positive here.

You know, you try to find positive things to look forward to. Who drops out of the top 10 in the East? You know, and Atlanta is 11th. So you need, I don't think they have more talent than Atlanta.

They don't. Atlanta's been disappointing too, though, for what it's worth. Atlanta's been really disappointing. They've also had some COVID stuff recently. Toronto at least has an identity. I know what that team is. They play hard every night. Whereas they, yeah, the Knicks don't really have the same identity. Charlotte and the Celtics, I just think

have more talent. And then the Wizards would be, I guess, the only one in that top group who could fall out. And I get the reason I bring this up, Sean, right now, the Knicks are fourth from the bottom in the East. And if you go into the West, basically they are 10th from the bottom right now. And you've done this before. You've been in that, oh, should we go for the draft pick? Whatever. I'm flipping it around the other way. I would argue that draft pick's an asset and you have some more draft picks too that you've accumulated. And Toppin's an asset. And you have some more draft picks, too, that you've accumulated. And Toppin's an asset. And I think all three of us really like Toppin. So the question for me is, should Toppin play more,

or should Toppin with that pick be the centerpiece? Like, if you get Miles Turner right now, and Toppin has to be in it, and maybe your pick protected top four has to be in it, but you get Turner, or even better, Sabonis. So I think, you know,

I think Sabonis is a lot more than Turner. That excites me. Sabonis, yes. Turner, I have serious hesitations. And I know he would help. And I know he would provide an element of defense.

He's a rim protector. He can shoot it. Sabonis, dude, I love his game, man. I love his game. I want him for the Celtics too.

I know you do. Is Toppin untouchable for you, Sean? I don't know what he is yet. I was really critical of that pick because I really wanted Tyrese Halliburton. And it was Donovan Mitchell all over again to me. Different players, but same thing. They're constantly stuck in this between 8 and 12

draft pick over the years. When they got into the top three, they got RJ. I like RJ a lot. Being in that 8 to 12 range is very challenging. A lot of times you end up with Kevin Knox's. And I don't want them to be stuck in that place again. I was completely fine with them getting knocked out in the first round. Because I was like, you know what?

Playoffs, progress, this is growth. One thing we're not talking about, though, is this was like the best defensive team in the NBA last year. And they have taken a massive step back. And I remember when they signed Fournier and Kemba, I was completely fine with it because offense is what they desperately needed in that playoff series against the Hawks. But if you take Alfred Payton, who I hated watching every night, and you take Reggie Bullock off the floor for 30 minutes a game, and you replace them with Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker and quickly and more rows, they can't defend.

And Robinson went backwards too, it seems like. He has been better in December, but he did not have a good November either. And so you're in this weird position where you're like a half all offense team and a half all defense team. So they don't have the identity like JJ is saying. Alright, JJ. Leon

and Wes call you. And they say, just give us your one move where everything's on the table for us. Give us one move we have to do. What moon and the stars for Lillard. I don't know how they would possibly make that work. So that would not be my move. You're going to call me crazy here. I think I'm going to get called crazy on this podcast, but that's okay. Zion Williamson is 500 pounds. I think Zion Williamson coming to New York, playing with his buddy Barrett, would instantly get into shape. Maybe this is a reach. Maybe I'm grasping. I need a store in New York. I need one of those guys. I'd be on the phone.

I'd say, can we get Zion maybe 65 cents on the dollar and roll the dice that we can get his ass into shape and that he can be the guy we dreamed he was going to be a couple years ago. Kyle, is the camera on? I hope the camera was on for that. So you're saying RJ Barrett, Toppin... No, I don't want to... I want to keep the two of them

together. I don't know if it's humanly possible, but remember, they have that Duke connection. Remember. So you're saying everyone's on the table except RJ for Zion. I would like to hold on to RJ. Toppin, picks, pick swaps, quickly. I'm in on it. Whatever.

I'm hoping to overwhelm the Pelicans. By the way, if the Pelicans are like, cool, let's trade Zion, that would make me even more nervous to get Zion. Be like, hey, I really want to buy your house. And the person who owns the house is like, great, can we waive the home inspection? Yeah, but they're not going to resign him in a couple of years.

They may be at the point where they say, you know what? We got to start this thing over. No. I don't. It's so weird. Everything is so over-reported right now in the NBA. And I know less about the Zion thing. I don't know how much he weighs.

I don't know what's wrong with his foot. It just keeps getting pushed back. New Orleans basically has no media there. There's like two reporters. We have no information. I don't know anything. You don't think you'd get a discount on him? You're not getting him without sending RJ away.

I think you need RJ in the deal. I think is the problem. Now, the question is, maybe you send RJ to the Pelicans to try to get Brandon Ingram back, but now you have another scoring forward. And Brandon Ingram's playing well lately, too. I would love to have Brandon Ingram in my life.

We're going to take a quick break, and then I want to talk a little football with you guys. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way.

Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. So quickly, here was the Rich Kleiman tweet. Oh, and the Nets win with eight guys and KD plays the way he did and all New York radio is talking about Steph.

And I love Steph. He's basically saying, Durant's the best player in the world or second best player in the world, depending on how you feel against him and Giannis. And he's right there. But this is like, this is why we didn't want KD to sign with the Nets.

He signed with the Nets. He's getting what he deserved. I'm sorry. Richie's got to know better. I thought he's like a New Yorker. He knows. Rich knows. Rich gets the next thing 100%.

He knows. JJ, was it your – one of you guys, maybe it was both of you guys said that the Nets might actually be a more popular national team than the New York team. It's not even close, Fantasy. You see these talk media shows, Fox, ESPN, whatever the hell they are. They love talking about the Nets. If you start shows in New York talking about the Nets. If you start shows in New York talking about the Nets

and a Net fan doesn't like to hear this, your ratings are going to stink. Your clicks are going to stink. I'm sorry. Unless it's postseason basketball, they're not moving the needle day in and day out. They're not.

Do you think they switched their stance on Kyrie because of the way COVID has shifted the last couple months, the way people are thinking about it, or because they're that desperate? I think it's COVID. I could be wrong on this. I think it's COVID. Maybe it would have

changed over the next couple weeks, but I think they're suiting up six guys, seven guys. Yeah, it's a total shitshow. So I think for them, it's like, look, if we can get another body in there and have them for road games, so be it. I've been thinking about them in the context of the LA Rams and the LA Chargers.

And how, you know, they're a team that kind of moved, but moved proximate. And how it's good. We always knew it was going to take a long time for people to get excited. But now if you look at the Rams and what McVay is doing, and you look at what Herbert is doing for the Chargers, it's kind of like these actually might be long-term

LA staple fandoms. And I wonder if KD, Harden, Kyrie, because of the way the league is set up this year and the way that Duran is playing, if they win a title, can it shift? Will the story change? There's a genuine question,

especially if the Knicks completely fall out of contention this year, and then we get set up for another 10 years of Nets dominance and Knicks ineptitude. I could see it. It's just going to take a long time. I don't see it. Me neither. I think it's like when the LA Kings won the Stanley Cup title here. You were here in time for that, right, Fantasy? Mm-hmm. the Stanley Cup title here. You were here in time for that, right, Fantasy? And it was a fun story. People jumped on the bandwagon for two weeks. There was a pretty small parade

and then that was it. But it was like, it was Lakers, Dodgers, and it's USC, UCLA, and that's what carries the day here. And you're just not breaking into that. And I think, we've talked about this before in the pod,

but these cities, they just have these entrenched teams that have generations of fans and you're never breaking into it. I wish, I really wish somebody awesome had gone to MSG because you even felt it during that Curry game, the electricity there. And we've all talked about this a million times. But I think with the Nets thing,

the other thing is Harden's just way less fun to watch. I found I was, my iCloud filled up. So I've been deleting all these pictures and videos. That's been one of my holiday things as I'm doing other things. And I had these all-star game videos on my phone from when that game was here like three years ago. And just randomly I had this Harden play where he was right in front of us. Basically, I had Westbrook on the baseline and was doing hard and stuff and just went by him.

And it was like, oh my God, he's like 25 pounds thinner and way faster. Like it's not even close. And I don't think I had fully realized like how much, I don't know whether it's age, whether it's a little extra weight, whatever it is, but he just, I know he's putting up decent stats. I know he'll have every once in a while games,

but there's just the level of speed that he was moving at three, four years ago. It's no contest. And there's always going to be a question with him when it comes to the playoffs. And listen, Durant's the go-to guy. We all know that. But Horton has come up so small in the postseason

so many different times. I look at Brooklyn and I can't stand a guy that he's impossible to root for. I think he's incredibly tough to take because if it wasn't the vaccine, it would probably be something else with Kyrie Irving. Yeah, I can't see them winning the title, though, guys, if he's not back like they need him. Like they're they're a dude short. If we're talking championship, if Kyrie's not there, I'm sorry. They're short. Yeah. And the league is, I just think, better than it used to be.

100%. The league ebbs and flows. And you think about even that 2018 Cavs team that LeBron made the finals with. And you look at the 2-12 talent on that team compared to what it would take now to get in there. And I just think Milwaukee, that team, when they get everyone back, their top nine is just really, really impressive.

And you look at the way KD and Jokic and Curry and some of the best players in the league are playing the best they've ever played. So I think the bar is high. Where the bar is not high is with New York football. There's been a lot of talk and some pieces written about the Jets and Giants. JJ on his New York, New York pod, this has been a recurring theme. It's almost like kicking a dog after a while. There's not even a ton to say, but

I think it's kind of incredible how both of these teams keep missing on whoever the franchise quarterback should be. And they've had awesome picks. The Giants got criticized for taking Barkley over Darnold. I was in the minority. I thought Barkley was the right pick because I just thought Darnold was whatever. Now you can say, oh, they should have taken Josh Allen. They were never taking Josh Allen second. Sorry, that was never happening. The Jets, the Zach Wilson thing.

And all of a sudden it was just going that way. And everybody was like, well, they're taking Zach Wilson. There are five QBs on the board. He hasn't shown any reason to think that he's going to make it. Now, who knows? He's in a terrible situation. Then the Giants, they're going to clean house, start over, and they just had a ton of picks,

and yet they're still starting over. Fantasy, I'm not going to ask you this because you have a dog in this race so i'll ask jj first jj's a dolphin spin which franchise would you least want to be out of the jets giants right now going giants giants i think it's an easy call and you mentioned the idea that they're definitely going to clean house i wouldn't be so sure because i think this owner has completely lost his way. I think there is a chance they go and hire a GM internally, or they go get one of Joe Judge's buddies to go and be the GM of the team. And you're rewarding a head coach who's double digit games under 500. He was so conservative early in the year with the way he was coaching the team.

It was embarrassing. You look at them offensively, they're a joke. They're in cap hell next season. Their cap situation, because of what Dave Gettleman has done the last few years. How is that even possible? How could you be bad and have a bad cap situation? It's impossible.

I'm well aware. Tell that to a Giant fan. And their reward is getting their medium soda Sunday with 60% of Dallas Cowboy fans. I can't believe I'm saying this because the Jets have been

out of the playoffs for a decade, but at least it's the first year of a quarterback. It's the first year of, you know, Robert Salen, what they're looking to do. And they did hit on draft picks outside of Wilson.

Vera Tucker is going to be a really good line. Elijah Moore, when he was out there, is a dynamic receiver. Carter is a talented running back. I see some glimmers with the Jets, even though the division is brutal. The Giants, you're going to bring back this head coach. You're going to bring back a quarterback, let's say, who doesn't play. And when he's out there, he's mediocre at best. What is there to feel good about with the Giants?

It's the Giants, hands down, Bill. I think the Giants have one move. Because if you're right, if they don't end up blowing it up and handing the car keys to some expensive whatever, and they're doing it more. You got to bring back Parcells as a special advisor. What about Parcells Francesa? That would be amazing. I'd be in.

If you tell the Giants to do that tomorrow, I'm in. I'm all for it. Parcells and Francesa as special advisors. But seriously, I think Parcells still has such a halo effect with the Giants fans. If they said he's just coming in as a special advisor, I think everybody would be like, alright, that sounds cool. I have no idea how old Parcells is. He might be like 130. I know

he gives interviews every once in a while. Sean, Zach Wilson through four months, how are you feeling? It's been really painful. I think it's been really painful watching Mac Jones cross the aisle. I am not out on him. I think it's been really painful watching Mac Jones cross the aisle.

I am not out on him. I think that there is still a possibility. I've been now going back and looking at rookie seasons for quarterbacks who developed really well. And he does look a little bit like some of those quarterbacks who all had those kind of like eight touchdowns, 12 interceptions in your first season kind of year. He has flashed a couple times. It's not that he hasn't flashed. It's just that what's been most frustrating with him is he's actually worst at the easiest things.

He's been worst at hitting receivers on short routes or checkdowns. Because he throws the ball 199 miles an hour? Throws it way too hard, does not have a good feel, does not seem like he's yet a good leader in any way. But JJ's right. They hit on a bunch of guys in this last draft. They also have like seven picks in the top 100 coming next year. And especially they have two first round picks,

two likely top 10 picks coming. So if Douglas hits on more picks, surrounds him with more quality. The truth is that the defense has actually been more of a disaster. The defense has been awful this year, and it's mostly because they have very, very little talent and have had a lot of injuries. It's almost impossible to know whether Salah is going to be a good coach or not. I genuinely don't know.

The funny thing is they trade Jamal Adams, and it just seems like a terrible trade for the Jets. It's like, oh my God, now we're getting more picks. We had this guy. He was one of the best 15, 20 players in the league, we thought. And all he's done has been over and over injured in Seattle. And then when he's out there, it doesn't seem like they know where to play him. It's like, is he a middle linebacker or what is he? It doesn't seem like he's a safety the same way somebody like Kyle Duggar on the Patriots is, where they're just flying around. And you end up just, you get this pick during this year

when the Seahawks are in complete shambles. And now you look at it, and they lost again the other day. They had a last minute loss. The Seahawks are the seventh worst team right now. They're five and nine. There's two four and 10 teams under them, the Giants and the Bears. So that pick's going to be like seven, eight range.

And then the Jets are bottom four again. And the Jets have a huge game for draft pick reasons against the Jags this week. 17 players and their head coach in COVID protocols against the Jags this weekend. If the Jets lose,

they have a great chance to finish with the number one overall pick and also have another top 10 pick. I actually don't know the history of the NFL draft, but there are probably not very many examples of teams having that much power in the draft. They can trade back if they want to accumulate even more picks. Douglas has won almost every deal he's made.

He just has one pretty mediocre to downright bad 2020 draft and one really promising 21 draft. So it's a, it's a, you said you needed, you said you needed defense. Take the Hutchinson, Hutchinson kid from Michigan. This draft's a... Well, and you said you needed defense. Take the Hutchinson kid from Michigan. Yeah, this draft's loaded with defense, right?

It does have the QB star power. And they have not had a legitimate pass rusher since John Abraham. Now, they thought they were going to have it with Lawson, who they signed from Cincinnati in the offseason. Hutchinson is the number one pick. Oh, my goodness. That's a double-digit sack machine for the next decade.

Would be a megastar in New York too. Right. So yeah, you're right. The Jets are in a much better spot. The Giants, they're looking at somewhere in the sixth range. I'm sure they're going to be in all the Russell Wilson rumors. If they can afford them. See, that's the problem with it.

I guess the NFL cap changes and you can finagle stuff and whatnot. Isn't it supposed to go way, way up next year too? I feel like it's supposed to go way up. Yeah, but if I'm him, why do I want to go to the Giants? Other than I want to live in New York City. The wife saying that she wants to live in New York. That's the only reason why. You know, it's a fun trade. Because football situation, it stinks.

You know, it's a fun trade, Sean. What's that? What if Zach Wilson and Russell Wilson, what if it was a Wilson for Wilson with some other stuff in it? I have been taunting Mina Kimes with this very trade. You know? What did she say?

I'll happily give you back that number eighth overall pick in Zach Wilson if you'll give us Russell Wilson. Let's go. That sounds great. I like that. I like the offensive line.

Elijah Moore. Let's be honest. Let's be honest. Makes more sense from a schematic standpoint for the Jets because of the young talent that's ascending as opposed to the Giants where it's like, hey, Barkley, the guy's not the most explosive running back on his team.

The weapons for the Giants were supposed to be phenomenal, top notch, top 10 in the league. They stink. The Jets all of a sudden would have been, ooh, that's juicy, guys. I like that. Sounds fun. Sounds fun to me. That would be, I, that'd be an amazing trade because nothing makes me happier than when a team has such a colossal fuck up and then has to make the second make up

for the fuck up trade. But then they're getting back the mistake they made. That never happens. Never happens. Oh, that pick. We never should have traded. Can we have that back as we trade our franchise quarterback

who won a Super Bowl? I would love it so much. Also, Russell Wilson instantaneously becomes the greatest quarterback in New York Jets history. Wow, we're putting him ahead of Broadway Joe? I mean, is he not? No, I can't do that. That's not fair to Broadway Joe.

I can't do it. I mean, I can't do it. He's too much of a legend right there. If my dad was listening right now, he'd be very upset. Let me tell you something. Broadway Joe's pro football reference page

is one of the most shocking things you'll see on the internet. It's right up there. I think if I'm not mistaken, it's like one more touchdown and interception. Right?

It's something crazy along those lines. I think it's more interceptions than touchdowns. I think so too. Different world though. Let's be honest. Playing quarterback

in 1970 or 1985 is totally different than playing a so too. Different world though. Let's be honest. Playing quarterback in 1970 or 1985 is totally different than playing a position now. Drastically different. I know. I love this account on Twitter. It's called like

Old Time Football and they show clips from like the 60s, 70s, and 80s. They've been on a great Billy White Shoes Johnson run lately. I really appreciate it. Shout out to that account.

But they'll show some quarterbacks just getting annihilated. Like really, like genuinely annihilated where you wonder, like, it's amazing. Roger Staubach was able to play for 10 years with the hits they take. And like Bradshaw, seeing the way he is on TV now makes way more sense because these guys are getting crushed. They're going at their knees. Yeah, but even if you look back to when your team had its first dynasty,

I saw this clip the other day. It made me sick. The walk-off Troy Brown touchdown in Miami. Oh, it was wonderful. Brady got decapitated on that play. He did. Like, dude, that would never, ever, ever stand out. Like, they'd be throwing 10 zillion flags if that happens.

I watched Man in the Arena episode four with my son, which is about the 07 season. Sean, don't watch this. Your eyes will just start gushing blood. Although they do lose in the end. They're showing the highlights of that Super Bowl and Brady's... There's at least five hits on Brady from the Giants front

four in that game. That would be penalties now. They're hitting him over and over again in the head after he throws it. You can't do any of that penalties now. They're hitting him over and over again in the head after he throws it. You can't do any of that stuff now. If anything, they've overreacted the other way. It's pretty funny. Football has really, really changed. Football and comedy, I think

there's a lot of parallels. It starts in 2009 and both of them just completely go in a different direction. Then we go back to the 2000s. You're like, oh my God, I can't believe they did that. Well, I think you notice it in some of like the rewatches you see even in like sitcoms. And even if you watch like, you know, certain dramas or whatever, some of the language that

they're using in like 2005, you can never get away with it now. Never in a million years. I was on an airplane yesterday next to my son who was, you know, when Zach Galifianakis and The Hangover, because he's watching The Hangover, when he's got the baby Carlos and he pretends to jerk off Carlos. He's like, not at the table, Carlos.

People would have like a heart attack if that happened. There's no way. But back then it was hilarious. That part is still funny. Yeah, that part is still fucking lights out funny. All right, Sean, congrats on the Jets. JJ, well, Sean, congrats on the Jets. JJ,

well, Russell, you got Russell Wilson trade rumors. You got a big game to blow against the Jags this week. You might have two top seven picks. I think this is, I think you're looking, things are looking up. I've been living in hell for 10 years. I know the New York audience doesn't like this. My football team's got a big game to play on Monday night after one at seven.

So I got a little extra pep in my stomach. Well, and we're about to cover this at Million Dollar Picks. You're going against the old Notre Dame quarterback, Ian Book. I was looking forward

to Taysom Hill against the Zero Blitz. That's just me. But we'll see. We'll see. Yeah, you got a little Ian Book, a little Dolphins. Will you be 8-7 after this?

Can you imagine if the Dolphins win the next two and they're playing your Patriots for a chance at the postseason? Kick a dream, Bill. Kick a dream. Congratulations. All right. Listen to JJ on his New York, New York pod. You can listen to Sean on the big picture and on the rewatchables every once in a while. Good to see you guys. Thanks, Bill. You got it. All right, Peter Schrager is here from Good Morning Football on the NFL Network. He's here every Thursday to do Million Dollar Picks. We're doing it early again.

It's 12.15 Pacific time. We're going to try to get this one in under the wire before Niners-Titans, just because we know who's actually playing in Niners-Titans. This is just sheer lunacy, what's happening with this. I don't know how. We have teases. We have underdog parlays we're going to do later, and we barely know anyone who's going with this. I don't know how, we have teases, we have underdog parlays we're going to do later

and we barely know anyone who's going to play. But I want to, we were just talking about the Jets and the Giants with Sean and JJ and talking about how the Jets are in this secret

kind of decent position where they're going to have these two potential top eight picks. They hit a lot of their 2021 draft picks. Who knows with Wilson, but the arrow's pointing up a tiny bit. And then we were theorizing about, could that be a Russell Wilson team?

And there's been a lot of Russell Wilson stuff going on. You know, a lot of rumors and obviously a sad last season. And it does seem like they're probably going to trade him. Where do you think, do you have any intel on where he would want to go? And what kind of team do you think makes sense for him? Do you think he's a big market guy or do you think he's a win a Superbowl guy? Because

he's already won the Superbowl. So I, to me, he seems more like a situation city guy versus a, I want to win the Superbowl guy. But what do you think? Well, when last year, when he spoke with Dan Patrick and he gave those four or his agent came out and provided those four cities. I believe it was New Orleans, Chicago, New York, and it was one other. Wasn't it like Vegas? Vegas.

And all four of those cities are not necessarily, but they are entertainment capitals of the world. And you look at those markets and you say, okay, well, they've got places where not only he can perform, but perhaps his wife can have a residency in Las Vegas, or she wants to go to New York. She can do Broadway or you go to Chicago. It's a mega city. I look at the coaches too. I think Sean Payton and Russell Wilson would be an awesome combination. That would be really fun. And for Russell, he's never had that offensive coach, that offensive guru. A lot of his stuff is so off schedule. And it's always been a pizza defensive minded coach that's going to want to run the ball. And Russell's going to do what he does and break the pocket and make it happen. But he's never had the Sean McVay. Maybe the hiring of Shane Waldron was his desire to get that. And maybe Shane hasn't been that guy up there in Seattle, but I,

I would look at the coaches and I would look at the market for him. Now, Sala was in Seattle for a time. Uh, and I know he has a great relationship with Russ as well. So who knows, maybe they can play that card, but, uh, it's going to be interesting with him because I think he now is more likely, um, a guy that makes more sense than Rogers If Rodgers seems to be happy and be enjoying the season, I don't know if Rodgers is so sure to be leaving Green Bay right now. Yeah, I don't think there's any way to predict the Rodgers thing.

But Wilson, who I think turns 33 next year, and in the old days, that's a pretty dangerous age. But he was on my podcast last year talking about how he wants to play to his mid-40s like Brady does and how much money he spends on his body and how seriously he takes it. And you could get 10 more years out of him. I have not liked what I've seen this year from him. Now, I know he's been hurt.

But even before he got hurt, something seemed off with that team the whole time. And even dating back to that dip he had after there was all that MVP conversation about him the first half of last season. He really hasn't looked like a top five QB in the league for a year. And I guess the question is, is that because the team he's on or what's happening? I think he's carrying a lot on his shoulders. And I know Seattle fans would tell you, no, now look, we were built with Legion of Boom and we had that big up front with Michael Bennett and we had Marshawn Lynch and maybe it's not a Russell Wilson.

I don't know. I think that guy still throws one of the prettiest balls in football. His teammates love him. He is a leader. And I feel like he's still got plenty of football left in him. Now, his contract is a little interesting. Pete's contract all the way through, and Pete's 70 now.

John Schneider, the GM, is 2027. So everyone's like, blow it up. It would take Jody Allen, who's the serving owner right now, it would take her to be like, I'm just going to pay out these two men for 12 years and restart, and we're going to hire new. I don't see that. Russell, they've paid him all his guaranteed stuff. He's got two more years left on the deal,

but he has a no trade clause. So he can kind of dictate and maneuver that. But I would imagine there is a long line of coaches and teams and owners that will be lining up if his services are up on the trade table. They're in a weird spot because the ownership, obviously Paul Allen dies dies jody allen takes over but not necessarily probably what she wanted to do in life and she's also overseeing the blazers as well we've seen this happen in the past where somebody who didn't really necessarily intend to be an owner is now in charge of stuff they usually tend to be pretty cautious we saw this in the pelicans with gail benson when she took over. Very tiptoe-y, they don't want to do anything crazy, whereas the new owner who comes in, the David Tepper type,

he's going to come in and he's like, I want to put my imprint on this. I want my guy. I want to make moves. I want to make noise. I want to make a splash. This is the opposite, which almost makes me wonder if this just stays dysfunctional next year and everybody's back and, you know, they don't have their first round pick from the Adams trade, but kind of nothing happens. But if I were them, I think trading Wilson's the move because they, the draft picks they've had and the trades they've made the last couple of years, they, they are now need a full rebuild. This is not something you're going to just fix. Yeah, and they're in a competitive division. I mean, those three teams aren't going anywhere anytime soon. But I look at it, though, if you're Russ, all right, trade me to New Orleans, and I could be with Sean Payton and Alvin Kamara, and that's all good, and maybe Michael Thomas comes back.

But, like, I don't know. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are pretty darn good, and Seattle is a great organization. Like, does he really want to rebuild and do this whole thing all over again? Or is he just like, let's give it one more ride. And then I'm in the final year of my contract and we'll see this year's a lost season. I think he likes being famous. I think he likes being in the mix and you're not going to be in the mix in Seattle on a five and 11 team. Yeah. Not a five and 11 team,

but do you feel like you see any less of Russell Wilson because he's in Seattle than if he was in new Orleans? I mean, or I do, I think, I think if he was the new Orleans saints quarterback and they're nine and six, and people are talking about them as a sleeper and him and Sean Payton, like you're in the mix again. So I think the danger for him, if like, if I was his buddy talking to him about it, it'd be like, you could just be irrelevant for the next three years. You're just, you're the fourth worst team in a loaded division for these other three teams

are really going for it and your team's rebuilding. Like, why the fuck would you want to stay there? Yeah. And I think Jets fans are, you know, pie in the sky.

Sure, we find out, but they just drafted a quarterback. I think the team in New York that everywhere I go on every street corner, it's a Giants fan asking me if they're getting Russell Wilson. I don't think it's the Jets. I think it would be the Giants who all indications are this might be the end of the road for the general manager.

I think the coach stays on, but ownership has been very vocal with their unhappiness with this team, but also with unhappiness of being so irrelevant. And there's a lot of jokes going on in New York market because they had a fan appreciation day and they gave out a medium Pepsi for free. And, you know, Giants fans are laughing at it. You need to show your PSL to get a medium Pepsi. And it was like, we've been to the playoffs in five years. The Russell Wilson, the Giants, that's not a Giants move.

They don't do that. They don't go crazy, make a huge splash. They're an old traditional organization built through the draft. But gosh, if Russell Wilson came to the Giants, the New York football market would be revitalized for the first time in five years. Pro Bowl stuff came out yesterday. Do you get worked up on it? Do you get worked up or no? I don't get worked up. I really enjoy it though, because I watch football every week. I watch way too much football and certain guys jump out. Right.

So when I see the final list, it all makes sense. Like the NFC receivers, it was Adams, Jefferson, Cupp, Samuel. I would have been able to predict that. That's fine. You know, you see like the, the defensive stuff where it's like the two middle line inside middle linebackers are Parsons and Wagner. I'm like, I would have predicted that those guys jump off the screen where it gets interesting to me is when they do like the tackles and guards and centers and like the long snapper, how do they decide the long summer? Whoa. Some good long snaps this year by,

uh, by Josh Harrison, Atlanta. It's really, he was really on the ball this, but for the most part, I think it's a really fun thing. And I think it's also informative

if somebody has a lot of pro bowlers. It means something. And Indy had seven. And to me, that means something. It kind of confirms, I think, the two teams, and I know you just did this on Good Morning Football,

the two teams that now have real, real, real deep sleeper buzz are San Francisco and Indianapolis. You were saying on good morning football about San Francisco, you don't trust our cornerbacks. No, they're atrocious. At some point, somebody is going to be able to throw in them. That's it. We don't have to worry about that this week against Titans, but at some point, somebody is going to be able to throw in them. What don't you trust about Indy other than Wentz or is it just Wentz? It's just Wentz. At some point, Carson Wentz has to go and has to beat Patrick Mahomes in a football game or Carson Wentz has to go and outthrow Josh Allen in a football game.

And I know that they ran all over the bills and they beat the bills earlier this season with Jonathan Taylor. But I don't know if you can win football games in January with 58 yards and like, right. I don't know. There's that. And then, yeah, they get in these shootout games and they don't necessarily win them. Like the Buccaneers were able to go blow for blow with them and win in their building. This Colts team is really fun to watch. They're really tough, but

gosh, that quarterback, there's not a long history of him making big plays and big moments. And if anything, and I'm not a Wentz hater, but there, if anything, there's a history of him shrinking in those moments. So we'll see. And I know there's a lot of Wentz supporters who will say, Hey, when he did that two years ago, it wasn't his fault. He got injured in the playoff game, but the week before he beat Dak with no receivers and I get it like it's fine. But Saturday night, did you get the feeling that if they needed Wentz to make a final drive there, he was like, no, it was Jonathan Taylor who goes 70 yards and puts them away. Dude, you're soft-toting this one. Wentz stinks.

I was dying for Wentz to throw the ball. My team's going against him, and I'm just like, please let Wentz throw the ball. This is our best chance. Please don't hand the ball off. Please get Wentz into a position where he tries to make, I just don't believe in him at all. And I think, you know, at some point,

he's going to get him. He's going to submarine their season. I don't know when it's going to happen. But they were so nervous. That was the irony of that second or 11, Taylor running for 70 yards to clinch the game. And it's like, Wentz was not throwing the ball again in that game.

It was going to be two more Taylor runs, and the Pats were going to get the ball back at like the 20 yard line. And they would have had a minute to go 50 seconds. And I think they would have. And I think the other thing with the Colts that jumped out to me is really fast defense. You're not going to be able to run to the sides of them. They're going to bring pressure, but I do think you can spread them out and throw on them. And I think the Pats were reluctant to do that in the first half. And the second half, they weren't. They ended up losing two receivers as the game went along,

which I think hurt them. But for the most part, I think you throw in the Colts. So in a weird way, I think the Colts and the Niners have the same kryptonite. I trust Garoppolo way more than I trust Wentz. I do too. I do too. And I talked about it on Good Morning Phillip. I'll tell you here, like you'll see, and we're recording this on a Thursday, and we'll see if Tannehill can exploit it. He might not be able to, but like

this number 20, Ambry Thomas is a rookie. He plays corner for the San Francisco. Dante Johnson has been a league for a long time. Not a great corner. And Josh Norman's the other one. So they have this great pass rush. They have an awesome offense and they've got really good safeties in Tartan Ward, but a smart offensive coordinator will come into this game. And I know McVay's had his ass kicked by Shanahan and all these times, but it's like, all right, let's just, let's just throw the ball at these corners and let's do it that way. Because no one, no one has struggled. Like Jamar Chase is still running for another touchdown against this guy, 20 Thomas from Michigan. Like I think that's a real problem for the Niners. And when you face Dak and you face Stafford and you face Brady and Rogers in the playoffs,

one of them is going to be able to pick on you on that way. What did you learn? Because I was on the East Coast. I didn't really see a ton of the Rams Seahawks. The Fox did that weird thing where they just showed the East Coast regional game. Yeah. I liked it. It was old school. Yeah. It was kind of old school. And I ended up watching a lot of Eagles D, but Eagles D against the practice squad. Garrett Gilbert. I needed the Eagles D to stink in fantasy and the practice squad. Garrett Gilbert. I needed the Eagles D to stink in fantasy,

and they actually did, and I was able to advance. So it was very exciting. I was able to make the final four in the West Coast League. But I didn't see a lot of the Rams game. It was weirdly close, and I tried to catch up with reading about it and stuff like that, but it just seemed like it was like a Cooper Cup game.

Yeah, win and get by. It was not pretty. And the officiating was atrocious. Again, Sean Hockley on the call. He had a non-call on fourth and sixth. If he's in the playoffs, that's one of the biggest, most egregious, terrible things that's happened. Well, what's frustrating

from just an objective fan and observer, and I hate picking on these crews because it's easy talk radio to do, but this is the same crew that called 28 flags on Thanksgiving then in the biggest play of the game you know Jones is all over DJ Dallas and they just don't call it and there's like no consistency if you're going to be a crew that calls a lot and you're the Carl Jeffers crew which calls a ton of flags and like do that and at least that's like your story but if you're then going to call flags in one game and then not another whatever so that's one thing cup can't at least that's your story. But if you're then going to call flags in one game and then not another, whatever. So that's one thing. Cup can't be stopped. That's it. Cooper, Bill,

real quick. And I know we talked about it in the beginning of the season. We're like, is he the best wide receiver? If you're going to make the Jonathan Taylor argument for MVP, and we're opening it up to non-quarterbacks, Cup has 20 more catches than Tyreek Hill, who's number two in the league. Jesus. He's got close to 300 more receiving yards than the number two in the league. And he's got three more receiving touchdowns than the number two. Like he's running away from the competition.

He's at the triple crown right now, which hasn't been done since 05. There's an argument to be made. I don't think a wide receiver is going to win MVP, but if you're going to start crowning Jonathan Taylor, I think you have to consider Cooper Cup as well. I think for a receiver running back to win, and we talked about it with Sal on Sunday, they have to be so far ahead of whoever the number two guy is. That has to make sense. Cup is like

over and over again, has just bailed the Rams out. I still feel like it's really going to, as stupid as this sounds, it's really going to come down to after week 17, we're gonna have to look at the records, look at the numbers, you know, the Colts end up 11 and six. Sure. With Wentz as their QB. And every time Taylor rushes for a hundred yards, they win.

Basically it's, it's hard to think that he's not there, but let's be honest. Rogers should probably be the MVP. We just have to get that. We have to be, get there mentally, but it felt like Brady tossed it away in that Saints game. I think so.

Brady had three Pro Bowl linemen. Starters. I know. On his offensive line. He has three Pro Bowl starters on his offensive line. He has Evans. He has Godwin. He has Gronk. He has the Fournette-Jones running back combo, which I think

is kind of sneaky good sometimes. But, you know, compared to Rodgers, it just seems like that team never has the same four skill guys. No, and Rodgers, he's missing four out of his five offensive linemen. I mean, literally, he's got third string offensive line. Rodgers is doing a ridiculous thing. Brady, you know, it's funny because his last season against Tennessee when they lost that game,

it was like, all right, you can't blame Brady. He doesn't want to throw to Jacoby Myers and, you know, kill Harry the rest of his career.

You know, whatever. It's the weapons. With no Godwin, no Evans, no Fournette, like, this next few weeks, like, let's see if Brady

is this rejuvenated Brady or it's back to what it was against, when he was with New England that final year where it was like, he's down a bunch of skill guys and he's throwing a Gronk and maybe Antonio Brown who hasn't played in months and Scotty Miller. Like, let's see how good Brady is all over again.

So he's in the same predicament he was then. They were just so healthy last year and they've been so healthy since he got to Tampa. Now it's all the shit is against them with all these injuries. Yeah, I was hanging out with my dad this week and he was delighted to see Brady's body language. So I was like, wow, you've turned on Brady. He's like, no, no, I haven't turned on Brady. But that was what he looked like in 2019 because he didn't have the same weapons and he was just super frustrated.

And it's like, oh, sorry, you don't have a pro bowl offensive line and three pro bowl receivers to throw to. Like it is part of the calculation with him. I do think like if he's going to succeed in his mid forties in a real way, he really needs weapons. He cannot do what Rogers is doing this year. I don't think. Yeah. And I thought you, you were great with Ben Affleck talking about it

when he says like, you know, he wanted to be close to his son who lives in New York. That's great. He also was entering a situation with Evans, Godwin. He knew what was going on there. He knew what was happening.

Levante, David, Devin White, like that Tampa team was built. It just needed that upgrade at quarterback and it was him. We'll see what happens this weekend's Carolina. I mean, it would be a very strange thing if Brady shows up there against this rudderless Carolina team and they can't find a way to get a win. We are going to take a break and do some million dollar picks. All right. Million dollar picks, which last week we did pretty well because we hit on the Chiefs. We won $661,000.

We hit on underdog parlay. We were only down $334,000 for the season. And this is when we usually heat up mid to late December. This is what's happening. We've hit five underdog parlays during this season. And FanDuel has boosted a couple of them too. For the year, we're five and 19 on the underdog parlays

in 15 weeks, which doesn't sound great, but it's actually really great because the odds for each one were at least like six to one or better. So we bet we've won about almost $1.2 million on those five underdog parlays and we've lost $627,000 on the 19 parlays we didn't get. You know who always wins for us whenever we bet them? The Texans always take care of this for us. Yeah, the Texans. But my question is,

maybe million dollar picks should have just been the underdog parlays. If we were betting like 200K on each of those, we'd be golden. So we're going to do that in a second. But there's another parlay. FanDuel has these same game parlays too. You got excited when the New Orleans quarterback got scratched. And Ian Book now in control. And then we have two on the other end against the Saints front seven

that we saw last week is pretty good. They can rush with four. Two is a gimmick QB, as I keep pointing out. Like he's deciding in the first second. Feels like a low scoring game. We can get a little ambitious on FanDuel with the same gamer. We can move Miami to plus three and a half.

That's minus 190. We could take the under all the Miami to plus three and a half. That's minus 190. We could take the under all the way up to 44 and a half. And if we do that, it is plus 103. So it's a straight bet. So basically, Miami would have to either win or lose by a field goal. And we can't have 45 points in that game. What are the odds Ian Book versus Tua will get to 45 points? I don't see...

I did a lot of draft coverage. I don't see Ian Book putting up a ton of points against Brian Flores' defense. Let's leave it at that. And I don't see Tua putting up a ton of points against Dennis Allen's defense. I see this game... I don't care if they're playing in paradise and the weather's great. I see this game being 12 to nine or 13 to 10. And I wouldn't be shocked if Camara has just taken snaps by the end of this thing. I don't, I'm not sure. I know a lot of

people are going to tell me, well, I watched him at Notre Dame and he did this, this, and this. I'm not sure Ian book is ready for this one, but the Dolphins defense is really good. And I think they're going to throw the kitchen sink at them. All right. So we're going to mark that one down. Niners Titans. One of the reasons we're taping early today. Yeah. I continue to love this Niners team. Let's go. I'm in. Let's do it. Ever since they boned us over, what was that? The Bengals? That 34-26 game. But I was really kind of impressed by them.

And then over and over again, last week they came up big for me in a parlay that I had. Not on here, but in real life. But I also watched a big... I watched pretty much all of that Titans-Stewards game. And I had the Titans.

I had, in real life, I had a parlay of the Titans and the Bengals. They were winning until the fourth quarter. They collapsed. It's one of those games where all of a sudden they were losing. And I was like, I've been here the whole time.

I don't understand how they're losing. I don't understand what happened. But they just have an incredible amount of trouble moving the ball. And informant was pretty good in that game. But in general, Tannehill, when you really go after him, when you really attack him, when he can't rely on the play action, you being afraid of Derrick Henry teams have figured out now they're just going at him and his, there's a lot

of advanced stats and a lot of numbers on him that, um, when you come after him, his numbers go way down. It's just the way it is. And I look at this Niners team that's really healthy right now, except for the D-back situation, but just has some banger guys. And we saw some of them make the Pro Bowl, but Samuel, Kittle, Bosa, and the way Jimmy's playing now, I think they figured out how to run the ball no matter who the running back is. And I like the minus three. I actually think this line should be like the minus three. I actually

think this line should be three and a half. I know it's a Thursday night. Thursday nights get weird, but I like, can the Niners win by a field goal? I think yes. What do you think? A couple of quick nuggets on this one. Kyle Shanahan did not leave the office. He pulled one of those. 72 hours, slept in the office this week. That's what I've been told. Did the old sleep underneath the desk deal. Cramming. I always love those week. That's what I've been told. Did the old sleep underneath the desk deal. Cramming. I always love those stories. That's an old school football guy thing.

But also AJ Brown and Julio might go tonight. I think they probably will, which is one of the reasons why I think that's only a three point deal. But yeah, in the, in the end, I just, you know,

I just can see them just punishing Tannehill. Cause they're, they're down to their third left tackle. Their entire left side of their offense with Saffold and Taylor LeJuan are out. And this is one of those deals where it's like Tannehill leads the league in interceptions and this is the 30th ranked passing offense. And to beat the Niners, you've got to throw the ball over the yard. I don't know if they necessarily can. Bill, I'm with you.

And we might regret this in about 12 hours, but last week we bet on the Thursday nighter. And I felt like I had the best weekend ever because the hay was in the barn. We were in. So I'm going to go with it. Let's go San Francisco tonight. So A.J. Brown playing.

Julio playing, but I'm not sure what that means because I think Julio is a name-only guy at this point. Foreman's been pretty good. I actually thought he was pretty impressive on Pittsburgh, but I don't think they can block. So if A.J. Brown's

playing, awesome, but I don't think they're going to be able to block the Niners. And I think the Niners can control the game. My fear would be Jimmy hasn't had

a bad Jimmy game in a while. You get the pick six early, Kevin Bayard to the house and you're playing catch-up. And the Thursday night games are weird, but I really genuinely believe in this Niners team.

I think they're good. I think they're in the mix in a real way. And you think about from a big picture standpoint, it's not like they can whiff on a game. No, they need this. No, they need it because they're 8-6. They're in the sixth spot. They have three 7-7 teams

right underneath them. And then who do they have? Texans next week, easy. But then at Rams, week 17. So, you know, could 9-8 make the playoffs? Maybe. But who knows? You get this

one. Now you got Texans in 10 days. Texans going probably for a number one pick at that point. This is the one you need. I think this is a kitchen sink for them. I don't feel the same way about the Titans because the Titans, they still have the one game up on the Colts.

It's a Thursday. I'm sure they want it, but I think it's more important than that. Yeah. It's interesting. I reported this earlier in the season when I was on Fox and I, you know, people were,

but they have Jimmy under contract next year. And like, if Jimmy keeps on playing well, like this might not be trailing at his team next season. Like they love Jimmy right now. So Jimmy's also fighting for something here and he doesn't want to necessarily be shipped off to some inadequate team. He,

he wants to be a 49ers quarterback where he took to the Superbowl a couple of years ago. So there's a lot of people playing with a lot of pride right now for that 49ers organization. It's more than just wins and losses. It's individual stuff too. We're not going giant on the Niners like we did last week with Chiefs Chargers, which turned out to be the right call. It was unbelievable. Brandon Staley helped us out a little bit. We bet on Mahomesomes We bet on the Kelsey Hill combo All three of them came through Okay, other ones we're looking at So, I hesitate to do teases

Which is why we won't go huge on this one But at the same time, I really like this tease And I think somebody would have to get There would have to be a major COVID thing So maybe we do a caveat That if there's like, we have the Cowboys, the Packers, and the Bills in this. If we lose, I don't know, Rogers, Dak, or Josh Allen,

this is a void. Because we're doing this on Thursday. I think we have the ability to void this. This is a good list. Let's give five guys out of all those. We'll do this with all the bets. It's like this is for avoidiveness. Parsons is out.

Are we out? No, I'm fine with Parsons. We can win without him. So Fandle has eight and a half point teases that are minus 110. We're going to take the Cowboys from 10 and a half to two to beat Washington. Washington, man, I heard...

I was on the plane yesterday watching these ESPN shows. They're talking about Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts looked good. It's like Washington was missing everybody. We're praising Jalen Hurts. I still haven't seen him look competent against a good defense that actually knows how to play him. I think that was a fool's gold game with Jalen Hurts.

The reckoning is coming for him in one of these games with the right kind of defense who doesn't let him scramble and makes him stay in the pocket and throw. We've seen it, and it's really dicey with him. Yeah, look, the Eagles put up 236 rushing yards, and they're 175 yards on the ground. You could compliment Jalen Hurts' operation in running that offense

and getting first downs with his feet, but you can't watch that game against the mass unit of Washington and be like, oh, Jalen Hurts was amazing throwing the ball. He had two turnovers. Washington lost four starters during the game. Washington was up in this game early.

They had to fight and crawl to get back there, and they used their run game. Anyway, that's... So we're going to bring the Cowboys down to two. Packers minus seven-half against the Browns. Doesn't seem like Myles Garrett's going to play, and even if he plays, he's got the groin injury. Now, I've been around a while, Shrakes.

The groin injury is not one of those, I'm going to play through it. Never good. There's no way to shoot it up. What are you going to like shoot his cock? Like there's, there's nothing, there's nothing you can do with a great injury.

It's just like, I am compromised. So, um, for how important he is for how disastrous their quarterback situation is, they do not, they cannot score more than 17, 18 points in a game really ever. It doesn't seem like,

and it seems like the wind has been taken out of those sales. The Raiders game felt like a death blow to them the other night. Feverish comeback. Um, there's their guy, JC Treader now has COVID or he's on the list. I don't know what to say anymore. Like he's,

he has COVID or he's on the list, whatever it is. He's on the, he's on the list with the COVID and he's a pretty talented offensive lineman. And maybe Baker plays. We're doing this on Thursday. Maybe he doesn't, but I'm with you. I think Rodgers on Christmas day, I think he's coming in and he's coming in hot. Yeah. And the Browns in Green Bay on Christmas, that's depressing. It feels like they, I just don't think they'll be able to fight their way through that one. Then the third one, Kyle,

turn the camera off. We're going against the Pats on a million dollar pick. Wow. This is reverse psychology. What is this? Bills plus two. We're going to bring the bills up to 10 and a half. I don't think the Pats are going to like beat the shit out of the bills.

Like, I'm sorry. And even if they get a big lead early, the bills, that's kind of when the bills are at their best, when they're down 20, that's finally where they play the way they're going to play. I just think that's a hard team to blow out. The bills are going to be fired up.

Biggest game of the year for them. The Pats, you know, I think scoring points for them thinking about, can they put up 30 against the Bills? 35? Like probably doubtful in shitty weather in Foxborough. It feels like a 24 to 20, 23 to 16, 23 to 21. I think it'll be tight.

I'm nervous about it. I think the Pats will win, but it feels like a one-score game to me. I feel the same way I did about the Colts game last week, which, by the way, was a one-score game until Dante Hightower

just completely overruns the one open lane and Taylor goes for 70. I like the thought of taking the Bills to 10 and a half where basically, even if they're down 17 with two minutes left, they can still get the cheap touchdown

and take it to 10, whatever. What do you think of that? Yeah, I agree. I think it's a close game. I also, I wrote for foxsports.com. I think JC Jackson versus Stephon Diggs is the matchup to watch. Like if they can,

because Cole Beasley is not going to play and Allen has been so zeroed in on Gabriel Davis and Stephon Diggs. But if you can eliminate Diggs, it really puts a stress on that same situation they had in the Monday night game where it's like, all right, now we got to run the football.

And if Singletary can't do it, then like, all right, we're in the same spot we were in regardless of how many pass attempts Mac has. Bill, I ask you, do you feel even after a loss, but the way they came back there with Mac finally having to like lead them on drives

and actually being able to do it in the second half, do you feel better about the Patriots in January after the way that game finished up? Or do you feel very skeptical that they could actually do this against some of the top quarterbacks in the league? No, that game actually weirdly made me feel better. Yeah, I think a lot of Patriots fans feel

that way. The defense showed up. They were so bad. You couldn't have played worse in the first half. And they didn't get blown out And they hung around And they fought back And I really thought they were going to win in the fourth quarter I was like, holy shit

They figured it out And I think they learned a valuable lesson You got to trust Mac You just have to The Colts were very specific about what they did They flooded the box They were not going to let us run. They were going to kind of force Belichick to go,

all right, I'm going to have to trust my rookie QB. And he didn't do it until the second half. But as soon as he spread everybody out, the Pats were moving. I mean, they got inside the 10-yard line at least five times in that game. They did. A couple, I mean, a couple, one,

to see Bolden getting big carries in like a big december game in 2021 like you know that on a sweep i know and then secondly him not wearing the right number like i feel like he changed his number and i still don't know who that is like oh it's bolden but he's supposed to be in a 38 number like yeah it's all very confusing to me still but i i just don't know if the offense is going to have enough to keep up with the Chiefs or the Chargers. I have genuine concerns after that game and they did come back, but I don't know if they had the horses. I will say they really missed Harris in that game. And I think Harris does some stuff with them because he can catch the ball out of the back

field. He's a threat, right? When Romandre is in there, they're just playing. The other team's just playing run. When Harris is out there, the field opens up in a different way, I feel like for them. And I'm not positive he's going to play this week. Kyle, are you there? Kyle? Kyle! I don't want to talk about this. I don't like what you're doing. What? It's okay.

Kyle, we're still rooting for the Pats on Sunday. We're watching it together. I don't know. No, it's fine. I'm not going to be rooting for the Pats on Sunday. We're watching it together. I don't know. No, it's fine. I'm not going to be rooting for the Bills to cover. I'm just, sometimes a million dollar picks, you got to go where the value is. And I think it's very unrealistic

to think the Patriots are going to win this game by 11 points or more, that that will be the final score. Even if they're up 14 to 17, I've watched Buffalo do this over and over again. They're really good in scramble garbage time. It's probably one of the best three teams. So anyway, all right, we're going to mark down those three. I'm sorry, Kyle. I'll make it up to you. I'll have really good beer on hand for Sunday. Kyle, do we invite KOC on Sunday? I feel like we do.

We have good luck with him. Yeah, just to balance what you're doing with this. All right, fair. Balance it out. All right. For the record, you have never in the year and a half we've done, you have never bet against the Patriots, even with the points or whatever. You've never done this. I'll do it when the value is there. And in this case, I think it would be

foolish to think that this is going to be a Pat's blowout. That's crazy. I'm going to be completely psyched if they win this game. I'll take a one- win. All right. Three straight up games. And I think we don't have to spend a ton of time on this, but Bengals minus three Ravens. I like the Bengals. We've ridden the Bengals over and over again. We watched the Bengals kill the Ravens a few weeks ago and they just cover zero blitz the living shit out of them. And it seems like that's the Ravens a few weeks ago and they just cover zero blitz, the living shit out of them. And it seems like that's the Ravens kryptonite.

I guess my question is, would I be more nervous in this game as with the Bengals minus three, if Lamar was playing on an injured angle or if it was a healthy Huntley, because I'm kind of hoping it's injured Lamar playing. And I think it's going to be. Yeah. He didn't practice on Wednesday. I don't know if they're better off.

If Lamar's out there, he's like, Coach, I'm ready to go. I don't know what they do. We agreed. You were saying first-round pick. Probably second or third, whatever it is right now, his value, but that's fine. That guy looked good.

And he went blow-to-blow with Rodgers. To be fair, I was talking first-round pick for Brett Huntley, not Tyler Huntley. Because I think I called him Brett at least once. But I'm old and people know. But yeah, Huntley, it's interesting. In my fantasy league, I'm going against... No, I'm going against the great

Tony Barbieri and his team, the STDs in the West Coast semifinals. His quarterbacks were Lamar and Tua. He had zero fab dollars left, but you can do zero dollar pickups. You just lower the pecking door I had three dollars left Did you block them all?

Tannehill free agent Huntley free agent Picked them both up So defensive Yeah Tua Tua's in his 31th now Guess what?

I'm going to wave Tannehill Right before the game today So he won't be able to get them at all But yeah And I don't know Like If Lamar plays, is that good for me in fantasy?

It might be. Like, is he going to be able to run around on a bad ankle? Probably not. Is he going to throw a couple of picks? Maybe. And the Bengals have already proven they know how to play that team. And I'll tell you, I work on Fox Sunday pregame.

And, you know, my job at 11 a.m. Eastern is to tell you who's playing or not. I've actually been able to break the news on Lamar the two times he had when he was sick and then the bone bruise last week. I'm like, he's not going. The Ravens do a really good job of keeping it in house until about 11 a.m. Eastern. So the line, if it's going to fluctuate, like you're not going to know if Lamar is going to play or not, you know, until Sunday at that point. And the opposing defense won't. But I think I think you prepare for him the same way. Huntley was really good last Sunday and he might be able to throw the ball into spaces that Lamar isn't as accurate with his arm. Uh, one good thing about this Bengals are minus one

Oh four. So it's a little less than the minus one, 10 big where we're usually used to dealing with. The Ravens are good at two things. Hoarding information like that until the tail end right before the game. And then dispersing social media videos that help their cause after their coaches fucked up two weeks in a row with advanced analytics. Oh, you didn't see this? The next day they were like,

hey, we got to put out the horrible asking his players if he should go for it. And it's like asking Huntley and Mark Andrews, should we go for it? What do you think? And they're like, yeah, let's go for it. Let he's like asking Huntley and Mark Andrews, should we go for it? What do you think? And they're like, yeah, let's go for it. Let's go for the win.

What are the guys going to say? No, let's be cowards. Let's take a toe tee. Coach, we're not going to get it. Yeah, coach. And they send this out and we're supposed to watch. I'm amazed how people react to this stuff. People watch it like, that's so great.

He asked his players. It's like, if I asked my son, hey, do you want to go out for ice cream? Guess what? He's going to be like, yeah, let's go out for ice cream. If you ask NFL players, should we go for it? Not one person is going to say, nah, wouldn't be prudent.

Let's be cowards. Let's take it to overtime. Who's saying that? Nobody. And I was on Good Morning Football. We had Torrey Smith, the old Ravens wide receiver And he was on and he's saying With all the Ravens fans watching And he's just like, you gotta love that coach trusts his players I'm like, no you don't!

Yeah, you just don't How about this? You're the coach Make the fucking decision yourself No you don't Listen, that's the kind of guy he is He's got that balls to the wall mentality And he's gonna lean on his players It's like, oh, listen, that's the kind of guy he is. He's got that balls-to-the-wall mentality, and he's going to lean on his players. It's like, okay, great.

It didn't work two weeks in a row. What are we talking about? I think Kornacki said, and I love citing Kornacki, but he does now the playoff odds, and it was like when they did not get that two-point conversion, their odds of making the playoffs went from like 88% to 50%. So it's like, I love that he loves his players, but I don't know.

And here's the other part of that play, and I can go So it's like, I love that he loves his players, but I don't know. Maybe. And here's the other part of that play. And I can go into it many times. Cause, uh, my wife's from Baltimore, her parents, they are season ticket old. Like,

you know, I hear it all day long Ravens fans. And it's like the, the one deal is that what everyone doesn't realize that there's 42 seconds left. So say you do get the two point conversion and you're up 31 to 30 Rogers can still complete two passes and beat you with a field goal anyway. So it's not like this was a walk-off situation.

So to me, it was like, all right, your defense is playing well. Take it to overtime. And then let's see what happens in overtime. And if Rodgers beats you in the final 40 seconds, he was going to do that anyway. Fine. I did not like the call. I can respect the call. I could understand where the players would like it.

But gosh, for everyone to be saying it was the right call. I come on. It was the right call. That was so obvious that the safety and the other team. Darn it over. Sprint. Yeah. Sprint toward Andrews as the ball is being snapped because he's,

it's so clearly going to Andrews on a rollout to his right, but it was the right call. Great job. Next one. We're going to do right, but it was the right call. Great job. Next one we're going to do, Raiders at home against the Broncos. Raiders are minus one. The Raiders are the Michael Myers of the NFL season. It's like, wait, I thought we blew them up.

I thought we cut their heads off. I thought we locked them in a basement and set it on fire. Why are they still here? I thought we shot them in both eyeballs. Listen, this just comes down to Drew Locke. I think he's terrible at football. I really do. I think he's terrible. And we have a rare chance to bet against him with decent odds. I also think Cam Newton's terrible, as we've discussed many times. But the odds on him have swung so far that there's no value in betting.

He's like minus 10.5, Tampa over the Panthers. But in this case, the Raiders just have to win by two points. I don't think Drew Locke is a starting NFL quarterback. That's my case. And fourth quarter, I don't know if you watched that game. Obviously, I was. He's horrible. Of course I watched it.

Fangio's clock management with the two minutes. Ian Eagle's really good at his job. Ian Eagle was being really polite. He's like, interesting clock management here. And I'm like, someone, what is he doing? Before the two-minute warning, not calling the timeout, just eating 40 seconds. There are so many...

The Fangio plus Locke equals we're winning this Raiders bet. I think so. And we had Aqib Talib on Good Morning Football and in commercial, we were raving about how good Cooper Cupp is and all that shit. And he's like,

you know who's really nasty? I'm like, who? He's like, Renfro. Renfro. Oh, yeah. And Aqib is like, Hunter, Renfro is nasty.

And I'm like, he is. And he and Carr have something. And I know Sertan is a superstar and all that. And Justin Simmons is great in the back end. But I could see them just focusing on and finding a way to win this game.

It's a bummer. He's not on the Patriots. He could have been the logical successor to Troy Brown, Edelman, Amendola. He just would have been like the perfect Welker. Last one. You can't.

So you can't comment on this because you're on the sidelines for this game. Doing the sidelines for Colts Cardinals, NFL network. I fly out Friday morning. I'll be in Arizona. And I just got off the phone with Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray and Vance Joseph. And so you're recusing yourself from this. But and you said, let's not do this one, but I'm doing it. I'm not listening to you. The Colts are plus one and a half against the Cardinals. And, uh, and I just liked the Colts and they're way too obvious.

And maybe by the time we actually do these picks, maybe I'll back off. Maybe the fact that you're doing this game is a red flag that we should stay away. I don't think Kyler Murray is the same guy. And I was looking at his stats from last year and this year and like the running stats are way different. Um, he he's

peaked in October for two years in a row. I don't think he's a hundred percent healthy physically. I don't think teams are afraid of him taking off as much cause he's just not doing as much. And then no Hopkins thing is a huge deal. And it's like, Oh cool. He might come back for the NFC title game. Well, guess what? You're not going to be in the NFC title game. Sorry, Arizona. I just think the Colts are going to be able to run on him. I know you can't comment. I can.

I can give you a ton of commentary because I just spent two hours talking on Zooms with the Cardinals guys. And I'll tell you that they all agreed that like last week sucked and it got out of hand early

and the turnover with the Amani O'Reilly. I don't know how Gus Johnson said it, but I loved it. The interception he had, it was like, all right, 17 to three. Now it's 24 to three. What are we doing? But they have a real, I mean, I'll say it like it is. I feel like it's a kind of fuck them all attitude. We don't care. We're good. We know we're good. We're 10 and four and they're coming into our building, even if they don't win at home. And even if they're coming off two straight losses, I don't know if they're at all as panic-buttoned as the rest of us are.

So maybe we know more than they do, but they certainly don't seem at all intimidated by the Indianapolis Colts. They respect the Colts' run game, but I think they think they're going to win this one. I might stay away from this because it seems too easy, and Carson Wentz is involved. Yeah. Is there an Easter egg I should do on the sidelines? I'm going to be on air. Should I do a let's go? Should I do something for a million dollar fix on the air? Just a wink,

like a Carol Burnett, tug my ear? What should I do? I think you throw in a let's go. Jeff Hornacek, wipe my brow. I mean, just second to anything. You tell me. Well, no. The listeners will know. So we have the Miami-New Orleans parlay, which mentioned earlier. And then let's take a break. We'll figure out an underdog parlay of the week, and then we'll do million dollar picks.

Okay. Underdog parlay of the week. Here are the candidates. Big pressure now. We cost FanDuel $1.7 million last Okay, underdog parlay of the week. Here are the candidates. Big pressure now. We cost FanDuel $1.7 million last week. People are into these. People are betting them. FanDuel's like, what the fuck? Why are they winning?

Is FanDuel into these? FanDuel's like, wait, this isn't as fun as we thought it was going to be? We like the Lions plus 220 against the Falcons. We did. Possibly no Jared Goff. Not sure we like it as much. So who's it going to be? David Blau?

Yeah. Our guy. No, Tim Boyle. Tim Boyle. Pretty rough. Okay. Well, so we have that. Not as excited.

But then again. I'd stay away. Golf was good last week. I'm going to stay away. Let's give golf a little bit of credit here. How many times do you have a chance to go against the Falcons when they're six-point favorites? I know. When everyone's picking them, too.

I know. This is exactly the game. And people putting them in teases. All right. We have the Vikings who are plus 148 against the Rams. Now, the Vikings, that's the spot we love them in, right? Yeah. Now, of course, is the week they win.

Right. But we like, you never want to bet, you never want to lay points with them. You want them in a situation where nobody believes in them or whatever. But, you know, Aaron Donald and everybody going against

Kirk Cousins obviously makes me really uncomfortable. Yeah. So there's that. We have Steelers Chiefs. Steelers are plus 300 against the Chiefs who probably won't have Kelsey and Hill, but then what's your information on the Chiefs?

Well, they get Chris Jones back, and they just need to get two negative tests in a row. So we're doing this on Thursday. I know, talking to guys in that organization, all these players feel fine. There's no symptoms. They all want to go. So I don't know.

I don't know how to do the COVID, but if Kelsey or Hill is out there, I'm not betting against these guys. So there's that. Then we have one of my favorites, Texans Chargers. Oh, baby. Texans plus 350. You have a Chargers team.

Eckler looks like he's not playing. Derwin James looks like he's out. In general, the Chargers love to zag anytime anyone trusts them. Right. Perfect. Texans a little frisky. Like point blank. There's to zag anytime anyone trusts them. Right. Perfect. Texans, a little frisky. Like point blank. There's some friskiness with them.

Davis Mills looked pretty confident. Now they don't have cooks. No. Who's their entire offense. Yeah. Who's their entire offense. But man, if they had cooks, I would be trying to talk you into the Texans plus 350. But with no cooks, I don't know how they move the ball.

So what do we do? I don't really like any of these. Okay. What about, it's with everyone's with COVID. We don't know who's playing and who's not. So like are dolphins still underdogs or are they now favorites because they're, because we got book. Well, maybe, maybe that's what we do for underdog parlay of the week. I think we could do our Miami-New Orleans, Miami plus three and a half under 44.5. That could be our underdog parlay of the week, but it's only minus 103. What about Jets-Jaguars?

Who's favorite in that game? Now that the line is pretty even, it's Jets plus one. So I guess technically the Jets, see, they're not even technically an underdog. They're minus one. Yeah. So that doesn't really work. You were talking jets with the, with Sean and JJ. It's like, I talked to Salah this morning and he's, he's on the COVID list. He feels okay, obviously, whatever. But he's like, dude, I got seven kids, um, in the house. I've got to be isolated. This whole thing sucks. He's just trying to get that negative test.

All the things that you don't think about when these coaches have it because they've got families and they've got to do this whole game. It's a major... I know in a lot of coaches, Sean Payton's gone and they win and it doesn't matter as far as the wins, losses. What a stress this is for some of these

organizations when you get these COVID tests. Well, the Steelers are plus 310 now. Do we trust the Lions? When in doubt, go against the Falcons? Should we just do it and say, Tim Boyle, if you're in there, go have a day? So we have, that would be, Lions are plus 220. Lions Steelers, that's plus 1212.

So bet like basically 100 to win $1,212. I'm not saying we don't do that, but you want to put in the Vikings too or somebody crazy? Who? I was going to say Vikings and Jets. Let's go four teams and put real little money in. Oh my God.

And let's just say, you know what, FanDuel? We're going out for it all this week and we're going to go four crazy ones and let's see. Well, I thought And let's just say, you know what, FanDuel, we're going out for it all this week and we're going to go four crazy ones and let's see. Well, I thought the Jets, didn't the Jets have like 17 COVID scratches? Yeah, of course. That's it. Yeah, so we're not putting them in. Oh, okay. And we can't do that anyway

because they're not an underdog. Well, I guess we could put the Vikings too. Yeah. All right. So that would be, oh my God. What do we got? Like a thousand to one? What is the... Steelers, Lions, Vikings is plus 3153. So if we bet 33K on that, it would win us 1,000. Oh my God. Jesus. Yeah, 33K would win us a million dollars, basically.

And I'm not going to kick myself if the first two hit and we don't get the third. Like, we're going in this thing with no real passionate pick on any of these. Let's just do it. Okay.

All right. That's all we'll do. And for FanDuel, maybe we'll boost... So we'll boost, like, Lion Steelers. Sure. Okay.

Or we'll ask them to do it. Who knows with COVID. All right. Million dollar picks. Week 16. Last week we won $661,000. We are $334,000 down. Right there though.

Right there. For the 2021 season. But this is when we heat up. First one. Niners minus three Thursday night. We're sneaking this in. Over the Tennessee season. But this is when we heat up. First one, Niners minus three, Thursday night. We're sneaking this in over the Tennessee Titans

who has A.J. Brown back. We get it. I think we both believe in this Niners team. Feels like a field goal game. I think they win it. I believe in the Titans being down to their third left tackle

and being without LaJuan and Saffold. And this is the Nick Bosa, Eric Armstead, let's wreck shop game. That's what I'm betting on here. Armstead, Kittle, Bosa, Samuel. Is this the most testosterone-y team in the league right now? Yeah, and you haven't even mentioned Trent Williams,

who is like the biggest alpha in the league. Yes, I'm in. And don't forget about James G. He's an alpha in his own way. He's not Jimmy anymore. He's James G. He's wizened. He's had some injuries. He's an alpha in his own way. He's not Jimmy anymore. He's James G. He's wizened. He's had some injuries.

He's had some setbacks. He's come to the precipice. Now he's James G. Niners minus three. 300K? Yeah.

Yeah. I think that's about it. All right. There we go. 300K on that. Next one. Eight and a half point tees, which gets minus 110 odds.

We're putting three teams on this. The Cowboys from 10 and a half to two points against Washington. Just win by three. We're good. Packers, minus seven and a half. Taking them down to plus one against the Browns. Not really worried about that one.

Miles Garrett hurt. Browns look like a mess. Stefanski's got to be. Do you think he's at the point where he's looking at other quarterbacks on YouTube yet or no? He had a lot of time. He's been on the COVID list for about 40 days. He's been a lot of time to browse a lot of Russell Wilson clips right now. Uh, so we got them and then we got the bills. That's right. I'm going against the pats, a million dollar picks, but the pats can still win. I can have the best of both worlds, but I think this is a close game. We're taking

the bills to plus 10 and a half. Okay. And we're putting 300 K on this. And we have here are voids. This bet is voided. If the following people don't play Dak Prescott, Aaron Rogers, Josh Allen. It's fair. If between Thursday and Sunday morning,

those guys are ruled out. I'm going to remove Dak Prescott. Wow. You think Cooper Rush can win this? Yeah. I'm going to say Aaron Rogers, Josh Allen, those guys are ruled out. I'm going to remove Dak Prescott. Wow. You think Cooper Rush can win this? Yeah. I'm going to say Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen. Either of them get COVID, we're out. This bet's voided.

Otherwise, we're putting 300K on an eight and a half point tease. Rodgers can't even be ruled out for COVID. You can't even test that man. So we're good. We're fine. You'd never know. Next one, Bengals minus three against the Ravens, a team that they crushed earlier in the season. We don't know against the Ravens, a team that they crushed

earlier in the season. We don't know who the Ravens quarterback is, frankly. We don't really care. The odds are minus 104 on this, and we're going to put 300K on this as well. Did you like Joe Burrow's nightlife comment? That was hilarious. We don't get COVID in Cincinnati. Nobody goes anywhere. There's nothing to do. Kind of a dig, but it

was like a, I don't know, half-assed compliment. I don't even know how you would describe it. It would be a dig if he held out and a I don't know half-assed compliment I don't even know how you would describe it it would be a dig if he held out and didn't want to play there or something

he likes it so that's good we're in he likes it how did you feel about Chase making the Pro Bowl by the way I was surprised by that

he's had some really he's really disappeared in some games up and down games but he made the Pro Bowl there's a lot of Pro Bowl questions we could do

we could do a whole show Bill just a whole 30 minutes on Pro Bowl snubs if you want. We can do the next one. I really, I disagreed with the Chase one. Anyway, Raiders-Broncos is our next one. We're taking that one as well. Raiders minus one.

This is a, we're betting it's Drew Locke game. There's no other way to say it. Drew Locke and Vic Fangio. And Vic Fangio. Yeah, like game management. The Locke-Fangio combo. Put 300K on that. And then last but not least, $300K on a little special FanDuel alternate line parlay that we've had some fun with.

Maybe this will be what they promote. It's called the Ian Book Book It Bet. Let's go. Miami, plus $3.5. So we moved that line, tweaked it under 44 and a half. Those two things have to happen. Minus 103. And that's what we're going to ask Spandula to mess with

with the boost for this week. Because we're going to do something so goofy with the underdog parlay that they're not even going to want to boost it. We are going to put 300k on this. And I'm going to give us a little boost. I have boost power with my bet. I'm going to boost that from minus 103 to plus 115 just for us. You know what? How about plus 120? I'm feeling generous with ourselves. Plus 120 on that. Miami plus three and a half,

under 44 and a half for the Ian Book Tua extravaganza. What do you think? Bill, if we win this, which I think it's a lock we will, I am not a lock. I will be sending you an Ian Book Saints jersey immediately after for Christmas.

And you will be rocking that next time we do Million Dollar Picks. Book it. All right. So we'll see. Maybe FanDuel, that will be the one they boost if they don't like the underdog parlay. And then just for the hell of it, just because we're feeling frisky. What do you think? 33K or just 10K on this? 33K? 10K. 10K? 10K. Yeah. Let's be wise. We don't love any of these picks. We're just kind of throwing them away. Yeah, we don't love... We loved the Lions until Goff went down. My man, Jared Goff.

One thing I love, Jared Goff in a big spot. Yeah. He's not available. Yeah. So we're going to do 10K. Lions to win. Steelers to win.

This is absurd. Lions to win over the Falcons. Steelers to win over KC. Vikings to beat the Rams. 10K at plus 3153 odds. So we'll win $315,000. Oh my gosh. When that Greg Joseph field goal goes right through the uprights and we win this one, I'm going to, I mean, that's, you know, what's happening. Let's go. Yeah. All right. So that'll be our little mini flyer of an underdog parlay. I still like to steal.

Can we do Steelers Vikings too, for the hell of it for 33? Sure. Sure. All right. So then we'll do Steelers Vikings 33 K at a plus nine 16. We're adding that one in. I have the,

I, I can't shake it. I have a weird feeling about the Steelers in this Chiefs game. Do you? I really do. I know it's absurd, but I think this Steelers team, I think they're going to make the playoffs and we're all going to look at each other and go, how the fuck did that just happen? They have this vibe to them that they're almost, I watched that whole Tennessee game and just could not understand how they were winning it, even as they were winning it. Yes. Is that a good thing? Yeah. It's good for underdog parlay. All right. So those are the million dollar picks for week 16. We stayed away

from Colts cards because Peter Schrager is going to be on the sidelines. I just felt like bad juju that you were there. I don't know. I didn't, I, you would have been rooting for it. I didn't want to put you in that position. So we, we steered clear. I used to work on inside the NFL and I always appreciated when Phil Sims and Chris Collins say, I can't bet on this one. I am actually going to be calling the game. Now I can do that too. So I cannot be a part of this. I will be a part of the broadcast instead. But unlike those two, you actually would have been rooting for whoever you would have been in a terrible position. Let's go to Peter Schrager. Oh, wait, he's high-fiving a cameraman on the sidelines

because Wentz just threw a pick. See, just hands flailing after a big pick. Yeah, so anyway, we're staying away. All right, those are the million-dollar picks. Peter Schrager, happy holidays, my friend. Great to see you as always. Merry Christmas. All right, that's it for the podcast.

Thanks to Sean and JJ. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to Kyle Creighton for producing this podcast. And as his present for another great year, I'm going to get him super drunk at Christmas Eve dinner and then tell him not to tweet because he's a drunk tweeter. That's what he does.

You know, he's a benevolent drunk tweeter, but loves nothing more than having a few pops on him and then tweeting about some song on a jukebox or something. So we'll see if we can get that going tomorrow night. Happy holidays to everybody out there. We will see you on Sunday on this podcast right after. God only knows what's going to happen on those Sunday games, but we will be here, me and the cuz.

So happy holidays. Merry Christmas. See you on Sunday night. On the wayside On the first side of the river I'm saying I don't have to ever