The Bill Simmons Podcast - Mobley Fever, LaMelo Advice, Brady’s MVP Run, and Pats-Chargers With J. Kyle Mann and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: October 29, 2021

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by J. Kyle Mann to discuss some early NBA observations and overreactions including "the Cavaliers are for real," rookie Jalen Suggs's struggles, LaMelo Ball's recklessness, the depth of the NBA talent pool, and more (1:55). Bill talks with NFL Network's Peter Schrager about MVP odds and why they are eyeing Tom Brady and Derrick Henry, and then they make their Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 8 (51:15). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Peter Schrager and J. Kyle Mann Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Ringer Podcast Network humming on all cylinders right now. Coming up, going to talk to Kyle Mann about some NBA stuff and then Peter Schrager, Million Dollar Picks, Tom Brady's MVP candidacy,

and a whole bunch more. But first, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, J. Kyle Maness here from The Ringer. He does incredible videos for us. He pops on our podcast from time to time, and he's here to talk NBA. Biggest overreaction through nine days. Now, we're taping this. It is Thursday afternoon,

Pacific time. So the Thursday games have not happened yet. I'm going to give you my biggest overreaction first. I believe in the Cavaliers. I said this on Tuesday with Justin Termini.

Then I watched him against the Clippers last night and I'm like, sometimes you're just kind of ready to be a 500 team. I think they're a 500 team at least because, uh, Mobley seems like he's in year three, even though he's five games in, he really looks like it's like, Oh,

it's his third year. It's like how KG and his third Timberwolves here. It's like, Oh, he gets it. Um, and then I just like their team. I like their guys. I think they're malleable. They can go big. They can go small. They can protect the rim and they play hard and they seem locked in. So that is my number one overreaction. The Cavs are three and just a different team because Mobley, he makes their existing pieces make sense. He's sort of, I was talking with somebody about this, that he has a way of being sort of like a defensive floor raiser in the same way that if you get a LeBron or you get a Luka

or you get somebody that can really create their own offense and pass the ball, or a Jokic, they can make all your existing players better. Mobley, you know, I hated the Sexton Garland thing. I wasn't on board with that. When they were talking about drafting him, I was just like, what are you guys thinking? But if you get a Mobley out there,

Mobley is such an umbrella for their defense back behind everything, and he is so disruptive inside the arc of the three-point line that you can play lineups like... They don't heavily have to have Okoro out there as much. I mean, Okoro's a luxury to have

as a young player, but... You know, you can play Markin and some out there. You can just... He allows you to have some more lineup flexibility offensively. Like, I 100% agree. The Cavs are interesting. They're an interesting team now. some more lineup flexibility offensively. Like I, I 100% agree. The Cavs are interesting.

They're an interesting team now. Yeah. Lineup flexibility and, and flexibility with guys who kind of suck on defense, as you pointed out that he can cover up. He reminds me the most of Kevin Garnett of any guy that's coming to the league mentality, personality,

all that stuff. I'm not saying that I'm just saying the way he moves, how fluid he is, how easy it is for him to be in the right spots all that stuff. I'm not saying that. I'm just saying the way he moves, how fluid he is, how easy it is for him to be in the right spots all the time. He just looks like one of those guys. There's certain guys that come into the league and physically they just make sense where you just go, oh, for that guy to get hurt, he's going to have to land on a cameraman or something. Even just watching him run down the floor, he's just fluid. It's easy.

And everything comes so naturally to him. The stuff he's doing defensively, Davis came into the league, I think that was nine years ago at this point. He came into the league. He was on a terrible team. You're saying all the names. These are all the names.

Yeah, yeah. But this is the stratosphere Davis came in He could get there I don't think he's as He was back then As consistent as this guy is This guy

I've watched a lot of the Cavs These first five games This guy is always in the right spots And this is why we liked him In college so much This is why Charks and I I can't remember

Where did you stand? You had somebody over him Right? For number one I had Cade number one Kade is in this funny position now where and what a nice this is a great rookie class because we're in this position now where it's just like they're legitimate arguments like Scotty Barnes has been incredible I mean Suggs not so much we can talk about that but I mean Mobley I was high on him um I mean very high on him Charks I'll give him a lot of credit he was early on he used the word, very high on him. Charks, I'll give him a lot of credit. He was early on.

He used the word special pretty much immediately. And I had some kind of questions about him. I was like, what is he offensively? That's the beauty of this is that he has time to figure the offensive stuff out because he's a good finisher. He has some similarities to Davis. Obviously, I watched a lot of Davisis being a kentucky guy i mean davis early on was kind of had that baby deer thing going on where around the basket he was physically compromised a lot he's always kind of shooting leaning back and things like

that like guys can get in his space but he has great touch and just really great balance and he's clever defensively like did you did you you see the first half of that Clippers game? Yeah, I watched the whole game. I had four TVs going, but I had it on. It's just really easy for him. And that's why when I bring the KG thing up, people, I think, remember Boston KG

because Minnesota KG wasn't on that much. We had less games back then. I think less people had league pass. When KG was at his absolute apex, he just wasn't on TV that much. And we didn't have the same infrastructure. And by the time he got to Boston, I don't think athletically he was the same as he was early 2000s KG when he was just, he just fixed every issue your team had on that side. That's what the mobile thing reminds me of. You talked about the offense too, like KG's second year in Minnesota,

so he was the same age as Mobley at this point. He was 20. And he was 17 and eight offensively. 50% field goal. Didn't shoot any threes. 3.5 free throw attempts. So by the time we got into the mid 2000s, that's up to like almost seven.

And I think that's where Mobley's going to net out. I think he's going to be like a 15 and eight guy offensively, but what's really, really, really fun about him on the offensive side. I think KG has had this too from the get-go is he's a really smart, like creator. Like, have you noticed some of the passes he makes like from the high post or like little handoff passes or even his entry passes? Like he'll, he'll be there a couple of times already this season. He's been on like near the three point line and love's been posting up and he'll throw love like a really nice entry pass. So that part's been a pleasant surprise for me.

Cause I couldn't get a feel for that. Watching all the footage of him at USC, the defense was so obvious at USC that he was special, but the, the offensive ingenuity, I'm delighted by. Yeah, in college, it was a little tricky to gauge. And this happens with guys where you kind of had to read between the lines. Like the spacing wasn't terrific at USC. Sometimes you'll have these bigs that play with guards

who have no clue who they are, basically. And it just can be really inefficient and ugly. But he's a great high post passer, like you were saying. I really think that there's a lot of upside with that. He kind of has a similar high release point like Garnett does, and I'm sure he's not going to take those 18-footers, but he has range out to three.

I don't have a problem with him shooting threes at all. Me neither. It was just amazing to me that he totally disrupted for a few minutes. I mean, a lot of the game, honestly, a multi-round playoff team last night. I mean, that was the team. I mean, they're missing Kawhi, but those were dudes out there.

And like, Paul George got to the rim a couple times, and you could just see him. He got all the way to the square, and he was just like, what the hell is this? Like, he was just, he's like a more coordinated kind of version of Bomba or something. And it's like, uh, and I think what we're seeing, the reason these guys are so valuable, like they automatically like add a win total. Like they just changed the quality of your team.

If this guy is like already a playoff, maybe I don't want to commit to that, but he's like, no, I'm committed to it. No, I think he's a playoff guy already. He's a near playoff anchor, or he's already there. And I just think that he's going to cause a lot of problems. And I think we saw it in the last two finals that the moment Giannis goes to the five, the Bucs become this just unstoppable machine.

The Lakers, when they moved Davis to the five. And the commonality there, I think, that Mobley fits this template is that you got to have sort of that balance. All three of those guys have that balance and the length Davis to the five. And the commonality there, I think that Mobley fits this template is that like, you got to have sort of that balance. All three of those guys have that balance and the link so that they can switch pick and rolls or, you know, switch actions, but they also can drop so that like, you know, it's harder for Chris Paul or Devin Booker to get those easy mid range shots, like, because he can do both and still bother them and be effective. It's not a one or the other kind of thing.

The reason I thought he should go first, and I'm going to take a victory lap because I think if we do the draft over again, he should go first and he should just go first going forward unless it gets hurt. I think it's just so hard to find somebody like this. There's great guards every year in the draft and it's the deepest position we have in the league.

And if you can't draft one, you can possibly trade for one or you could possibly sign one as a free agent. Like they're available. And for me, the thing with Cade, which I kept asking every time I talked to people smarter than me about the draft stuff, it's like, does he have a chance

to make multiple NBA teams? Does he have a chance to be one of the top 10 players in the league? With Mobley, this is somebody every team is dying to have because not only can you go bigger with him, which they do with Jared Allen, but he can also be your small ball five and you don't lose anything. And we saw with Aiton last year for the first couple rounds, when you have a big who has the ability to be able to swallow up anybody if he gets switched

onto a guard and also protect the rim. That is like the hardest thing you can find in the league. And Aiton finally got exposed by Giannis, who just went to another level athletically in the finals. But for the most part, that's why I would max out Aiton right now. Three guys in the league can do that. So the fact that they already have one right away, they have some good veterans. Rubio's an above-average veteran to have. So is Love. Love actually looks engaged. Marking it'll come in and he'll actually have a four-minute stretch where he'll make some baskets. And then they have that Sexton Garland wildcard thing. I like that team. I got to say, I think I like that team more than the Boston team right now

after watching this terrible Boston team for five games that the guys just don't even seem like they've met each other. I was going to ask you which one you would pick between those two. I mean, I think it's absolutely true that like, and then you just open up a whole world of possibilities. Like we're early on in it. Like you think about those two small, like scoring minded guards and like Sexton and I've had my issues with Sexton in the past. Me too. He just makes a lot more sense when you balance him against that type of a player. Mobley is really special. You know what I was thinking?

Dame, they looked okay yesterday, but I think if they had lost to the Grizzlies yesterday, the Dame trade stuff would have started up. The Dame situations where if he goes to the Knicks, they have to give up all these people to get him. If he goes to Philly,

there's really no roadmap for that to happen. You go through the league, it's just hard to find the right trade. Just fundamentally, it won't happen. But if I'm Dame and it's like, wow, I could just attach myself to Mobley. This is why it's both an overreaction, but at the same time, I really

believe it. Like, I really feel like this guy has KG potential. Like I'm, I don't take that. I don't say that lightly. It's not a hot take. I watched KG. I was there the whole time. Um, I think this guy has a potential. I don't know if he has the fuck you mentality KG had, but I haven't seen him take a playoff in any game I've watched with the Cavs. He's in the right spots all the time. His teammates are galvanized by what he's doing on both ends. Like they really,

you can tell his teammates think he's special. And I think it's a really important thing. We've seen good wing guys come in. We have really not seen something like this since when Davis came in, right? Who was the last impact four slash five who could come in right away and was ready? That's going to give you something on both ends.

I mean, it's a very short list. I was looking up some of the, I actually got the tip on this from Charks. It's a list of people you get into. Sometimes you get into these comps that I almost feel like I have to do the rosary. I'm not even Catholic, but before I start to bring them up, you're just like, is this, am I being outrageous? It's in that stratosphere of defensive player of the year territory.

And what's crazy is I think there are two guys in this draft that have a potential to be first team all defense. Scotty Barnes has been incredible. Yeah. So it's going to be hard for him to win the player of the year probably because Mobley is just going to be in such a good position to do it.

I know we're going wild here. I mean, it's early, but he was blocking dunks at the apex. And another thing I would say too, this is the thing that people underrate. You know, the mentality, like you said, was correct about like, you know, Garnett's motor, mental motor is really big, physical motor, mental motor. Mobley has something that a lot of those guys have too, and that he's, he's defensively ambidextrous.

We talk a lot about like passers being ambidextrous. You watch him. He can block with either hand. He can deflect balls. He also has really accurate hands. Like you see him dig on balls and he's so skinny that he can avoid fouling. Like he's not just like wildly swatting. And that was something that like Jaron Jackson Jr.

was a guy that I think we kind of thought was going to be this. It hasn't kind of come along because he's so foul prone. Mobley has a different sort of coordination on that level.ly. He's special. Davis's first year, he was 13.5-8. Duncan, we can't compare because Duncan was a finished product when he came in the league. He had four years in college. But if you're just talking about the guys that are coming in after one year in college who are bigs, he's as advanced as anybody we've seen. I'm actually kind of stunned by how advanced he is. Dare we say the word Hakeem?

Would it be blasphemous? Am I going to get struck by lightning if I bring that name up? Yeah, but even Hakeem was in college for a few years though. And yeah, they're different players. I don't think... Defensively, I just mean strictly. So Hakeem is a great example of somebody who, as the years pass, things just kind of get lost. He was an absolute athletic freak the first couple of years when he came in. There's this sequence you can watch in the clinching Celtics game when they beat Houston to win the finals in

86. There's a sequence when Hakeem just takes over the game in the second quarter for like three minutes. I think he strips Walton three straight times. He just, it's all of a sudden it looks like he came from another planet and, you know, Mo, I don't know if Mo is like that. He,

again, he reminds me more of the KG, but this is the kind of territory we're talking about. It is completely improbable for a tall guy to come into the league with one year of college under his belt and be as good defensively and as an all-around player as this guy is already. As I said at the top, it feels like he's in year three already. And that's why we spent 15 minutes on it. What's your biggest overreaction after nine days or so? If I have to think

of another one, yeah, that's a big one for me. I mean, the Suggs thing is troubling. I know we're kind of on the rookie thing here just from talking to some people. And he had a bad training camp too, right? It's not like this was just the games. This has been

pretty from the get-go that there is concerns yeah you you want to take it slow i mean it's kind of it's early and it's probably kind of mounting up on him this is probably the first time in his in literally he's been a dominant athlete a lot of these guys are but i mean he was he was always physically dominant in a way uh where i think that his like change of change of pace and like his kind of his his ability to sort of go between his gears and we see this with rookie point guards a ton you know but he he's looked a little like physically he's looked small i don't want to say he looks tiny it's just like he has been playing in a way like he's been acting surprised by the length and the speed of the nba which surprised me a little

bit um yeah i was gonna say he looks small in like a kind of a half second late. Yeah. Which could be he's in his head, you know, a little bit there too. I mean, I'm not out on him. He's a sharp kid and he's a great athlete and I think it'll come along. But I kind of expected him to sort of impose

his personality on this Magic team pretty quickly. But he's been kind of a question mark so far. Well, you know, it's been surprising. Cole Anthony has been alpha doggy in some of these games. I don't know how much magic you've watched, but he seems like the driving force of that team on both ends, too.

Like, he's one of those guys he takes to charge, and he's lying on the ground doing, like, the Braveheart double fist pump. So maybe Suggs didn't expect that either. I think Cole Anthony looked at it like, well, this is my team. And you're like,s didn't expect that either that I think Cole Anthony looked at it like, well, this is my team. And you're like, all right, settle down Cole Anthony. But the way he's played the first five games, he's carried himself that way. I look, I think of this as, and this happens sometimes with the draft, which was like, Mobley goes in the perfect spot.

He's got Alan next to him. He's got Kevin Love. He's got Mark and Ann. So there there's a buffer if he doesn't play well in any given game. Not that we've had it yet. Guys who can score. It's just the right team for him. Barnes goes to the right team, right? It's a Toronto team that doesn't necessarily care

what they're doing. They want him to be the point guard. They have perimeter guys that can play off him. So the ball's in his hands and he's playing with that infectious enthusiasm. Then defensively, he can guard any perimeter player you have. Perfect for him.

If he goes to Orlando, maybe not the same. If Suggs goes to Toronto, better situation. Better veteran team to kind of go into. He has the ball more. So I just think the way it worked out

for Barnes was great. Because on that Orlando team which is so bizarre how many centers do they have seven something like that it's like yeah it's like a an airline at this point they have so much wingspan on that team but I think that it was a we talked about this going up to the draft that it was a tough situation for Orlando because they were just kind of squeezed into making this decision and over and over again like historically I don't know when we're going to learn, but it's like whenever you make like the consensus decision, I don't know.

It's like, just take the best player, man. Maybe they thought that I'm sure they thought Suggs was the guy, but they were just kind of in a fit situation that didn't really work. Who do you think they wanted to take? Uh, I mean, I think they wanted Suggs at their spot. I mean, I'm sure they would have taken the guys. I'm okay with it too. I think he was, I don't think he was the wrong pick.

I will say I've been surprised by how much I've enjoyed Giddy. Oh, baby. Yeah, Giddy's your type of dude, for sure. We've seen the Giddy types have tantalized the NBA community, and a lot of times they don't work out. You know, it's like that kind Yeah. That kind of Chase Budinger, Rudy Fernandez, that these just great athletes

that it just, everything seems so fluid and natural. Good passer. Seems fun to play with. Neither of those guys have the feel. Yeah, I think he has

a different feel than those guys did. I'm with you. Oh, Tyler Parker, I was texting him. He is just like beside himself with joy. Like if you think about

like the way the draft went for them. Okay, guys for anybody that know just he's uh pardon the pun giddy but like if you watch somebody he's just a really advanced passer like even even further along than i thought koc was giving him was was a little higher on him than i was i was my cynicism about his shooting now these things i think he'll run into this eventually. Like, he's not like a negative, like, do not shoot the ball type of guy. But he's just not really a movement shooter yet. Like, it's coming along. But, man, he is a gifted playmaker. And him and Shea next to each other are just funky.

Like, they're just a funky guard. In a good way. Yeah, and in a way that's great. Yeah. They have three players I like. And you could throw away the rest of the team, including Poco, who last night played seven minutes because they knew people were going to actually watch

a Lakers-Thunder game. So they nudged him out. But Dort, SGA, and Giddey is fine. And I know they're going to throw away this season, too, but I hope they don't waste too many SGA years. But I like Giddy. I think he's alright. Do you like the Raptors?

There's going to be nights when they score like 68 points. I like their team, man. I just go down their roster. I'm like, I like that guy. I like that guy. I like that guy. They play hard. They all seem kind of bought in. I mean, they just, they all seem kind of bought in, and like you were saying,

Barnes just fits their personality really well. It's just, it's a scrap, it's a team that I, like, wouldn't want to play late in the year, because I just feel like they're going to put it together and be, they just don't stop. They're going to be like the Knicks were last year, if they even get in, because it's so competitive, but, like, they'll take a bite out of you. They're that type of team.

I was just going to make that point. That's a team and I didn't even think end of the year. I think that's a team when they're on your schedule. If you're the other team, you're just like, ah, fuck these guys. These guys are a pain in the ass to play. They're just hard to play. They're switching on everything. They have great athletes.

Everybody's super aggro. And even somebody like Van Vliet. Van Vliet's fucking annoying to play. You know, it's like you switch on him, your big's on him. He's 27 feet from the basket. And you're like, oh, this is great. And then all of a sudden he's making a 27-footer. I can't

stand going against Van Vliet. He's so frustrating. I'm with you. Alright, we're going to take a break. We're going to come back and talk about the Ball Brothers. Oh, baby. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

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And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, the Ball Brothers. This was a lot more

fun of a topic before Lamello just shit the bed in his last game. I'm going to come out of the gate with this point. Lamello, his first step is actually incredible.

And if he goes, he went through the last game they played, he had zero free throws. They won. For him not to have six free throws in a game is just such an abomination to me because like, so they go against the Celtics Monday night. Charlotte is a big lead. And Lomelo decides he's in New Zealand and just starts shooting 30-footers. He made one, which was like the worst thing that could happen to him.

Now all of a sudden he's just shooting 30-footers. And I'm watching and going, this is great. Please keep shooting those. Because every time you go to the basket, you get whatever you want. You can get a layup at the basket. You can get fouled. Or you can kick out to a wide open three-point shooter.

So please, keep firing up these 30 footers. So he's this frustrating combo of like, just incredibly talented. One of my biggest misses I've had in the draft in the last 20 years, like just completely missed it. But yet I'm also frustrated by almost like by the game, who, who his identity is in the game. Cause there's certain games where like, Oh, he gets it. This is unbelievable.

I can't believe the words didn't take them. And then there's other games where you go, I understand why the words didn't take them. So I thought there was two days ago. I thought maybe he makes all NBA this year. Then you watch the game the other day, we have seven points, no free throw attempts.

Like, Oh, he's definitely not making the NBA. What are, uh, give us, give us your lamello takes. You,

you mentioned something that I looked up specifically, like the foul drawing is kind of, it's kind of appalling. Like before that, that Orlando game, 55 players were averaging 15 or more field goal attempts per game. Lamello was tied for third fewest free throws among those guys. I'd imagine that number went down. So like it got even worse. For this season, he's 1.4. So he shot seven free throws in five games, which if you watch him, it's like, dude, nobody can stay in front of you.

What are you doing? He gets a little, I have a term that I made up and this seems like something you might approve of or disapprove of, but guys like him that sort of, he plays like this kind of like above the fray style Jamal Murray was like this until he shifted and started playing more physical I call them tuxedo scorers like guys that like like to keep their suit clean when they play like they don't really want to get in he doesn't play like that like get in and sort of get his nose dirty like so and that's a big thing for him if you watch him playing going to the basket i mean he's insanely creative like he

does these weird statue of liberty floaters over bigs where i'm just like what the hell like and he can make them uh but a lot of times he he plays sort of like if you watch non-physical drivers going to the rim he gets his direction changed pretty easily. He also doesn't fight back. He's a guy who just kind of is going to work around. He just kind of has a slight frame. The thing you said about the big thing for him is his start-stop ability is crazy. Once he gets somebody on the hook, he is so good at shifting his weight with his dribble and like so creative that he can get in the rim.

But the problem is that like he's played his entire life. The talent was there and recognizable. But the problem is that he's played his entire life with like no repercussions for his decisions. So for him. Well, now he's in Charlotte where he's the golden boy. So he's not. There's no repercussions either. He can have a game like he had the other night.

They're just so happy he's on the team. They're not going to give him shit. But Borrego sits him. Borrego sat him in the fourth quarter of that game because did you get to see much of the fourth quarter of that game? Yeah. So he comes down in transition, and they're trying to fight back.

They're playing okay. Orlando's playing all right. They're trying to fight back, and he just shoots like a transition. It was like a two-on-one, and he shot like a transition 28-footer. And Miles Bridges literally threw his hands in the air. It was just like, what the hell are you doing? And that's the problem with him.

It's just like he has all the courage. He has that fearlessness that you want. But his calibration of time and situation, it's a work in progress. I mean, yeah, so it's just coming along. Well, I think part of the time and situation, it's a work in progress. I mean, and yeah, so it's just coming along. Well, I think part of the problem with him, he got benched in that game, but it wasn't a big deal and he's not a big enough star for it to be a big deal, but he's already getting all these wins from TikTok and Instagram and Twitter because he'll have a couple of plays during the game. And it's like, all right, he, he won Twitter again.

And then he's putting up stats and at least a few of these things. And he's looked great at times. So it's almost like he's, he's got enough of a win, but it's like, I actually think the guy has a chance to be a legitimately great offensive player. And he's tapping into from what I've seen and I watched the whole Celtic game

I saw I don't know how how the Orlando game was on with other games but it was on my TVs but I I just I feel like he almost needs like a life advisor for like hey dude here here's what's at stake for you like you nobody can stay in front of you. You're the best passer probably in the league other than Jokic, right? Probably. Just in terms of creativity. You have 30-foot range.

Other teams, their scouting report says just let him fucking chuck it from 30. Don't let him start going to the basket. And you have these dudes on your team like Miles Bridges who want to run with you. You have the right kind of team. Such a frustrating. I feel like it's sitting there. You could see the recipe.

He bought all the ingredients at the store. It's on the counter. And now he's just kind of staring at the ingredients. And I don't think he knows what to make. It's a thing where there was a point in that Celtics game where he was kind of embarrassing them a little bit with how easily he was navigating their defense and creating. And you could tell Marcus Smart eventually was just like,

all right, enough. But it's like every really skilled player like that, if they're humiliating a team, it's like a lot of different stars have gone through this Steph went through this when the Spurs were just like body checking him off of every screen away from the ball you know LeBron went through this it just kind of goes on and on and on that's kind of what teams start to try to do with you I think that he's gonna have to figure out how to play even Trey had to navigate some of this now trey trey's actually kind of similar

to lamello and that fearlessness that creativity but dude lamello through i texted you about this like lamello through he was driving left and he was on the left side of the lane he went in the air like he was going to shoot it and threw a behind his head left-handed skip pass to the other side of the floor and it was on the money and he has you and i've talked about this before too that like he has this ability you always and when i was listening to you and bob talk about like celtics players and things like this i mean like that was great by the way people should listen to that and he has this ability to make it seem like he's seeing things before they happen because he will take a picture of the floor right before he catches the ball.

And he has such good touch and passing vocabulary that he can just do things that just seem like wizardly. Like it's he's he's a surreal talent. But I was saying he also kind of has like some J.R. in his game where he's just like, oh, what's the score? What's the time? What where am I? What is this? And just fearlessness. So, I mean, I hope it comes together.

Yeah. Bill Fitch used to call Larry Bird Kodak because he used to have this whole take that he would do about he's, he takes pictures of the court before everybody else realizes what's going on and sees everybody and then makes whatever decision he's going to make. LaBelle definitely has a little of that. I, I do wonder,

you know, he hurt his wrist last year and I think it was on a drive, right? Didn't he get knocked down? I don't remember. He avoided contact. We know that. But he got hurt and he missed a bunch of time. And I wonder if he's kind of easing back into the physicality. You mentioned how he has a frail frame, which I agree with. He's going to be 15 pounds heavier probably three years from now. He'll put on weight. He'll look bigger and stronger. I do like how he bounces against guys sometimes. And I think Ja has the same quality. Ja just, he'll go into bigger dudes. He'll take

the contact and then he'll kind of decide what to do. And I have seen LaMelo do that. And I think that's a really rare skill too, because, you know, some guys, they bounce off you and then they're flying and that's it. LaMelo sometimes seems like he likes it. And then other times I feel like he doesn't want the contact at all. I bet on Charlotte for the over. Um, they were one of my locks when we're still in house and I did the pick,

I think it was like 37 and you know, it's like, Hey, is Hayward going to play play how many games am i getting from him when they have hayward team's pretty good and i think that's why the east is so confusing this year and that's why i'm worried about the celtics honestly because even if tatum was probably the best guy out of like the five or six guys in that pack it might not matter like it might just be a really deep conference that has a bunch of teams that are a little bit above 500.

They don't come down to injuries and dumb losses, you know? And I think Charlotte is at least in that mix. I think they're in there with a team like the Knicks and the Celtics and a whole bunch of those teams. I don't really see a lot of separation anymore until you get to the Orlando and Detroit, which were clearly just way below everybody else. Other than that, I don't know. Even like the Wizards. The Wizards aren't bad. You watch the Wizards, they have a lot of professional basketball players. They can rebound. They can shoot. They play hard. They seem like they like each other. Like, they kicked the shit out of the Celtics last night.

So, yeah. So, I don't know how it plays out for Charlotte, but they have a chance to make the playoffs, I think. I think I would take it a step further. I just think the league is just... I'm not kidding. I had this same thought last night that, like, you go down and you just look at the teams,

and the talent pool in the league is just deeper than it's ever been and i think that like the bath like the temperature the water level has kind of i don't know what the right metaphor is but like it's the standard stasis of like what is an nba player has kept coming up and i think that like we iterate every year and like what the level of player that comes into the league is a little higher each year. And I think that if you look historically, you can kind of see that. As we go and as more people play basketball, I just think that we have such an incredible crop of young players coming in. I think it's just going to continue to the point where the worst teams

aren't going to be as bad anymore. Maybe the distance between 30 to 1 is still going to be there, but I think that what teams are capable of and the individuals on every team, because you're right. You go down through there, and it's like even Orlando that's not really the best team. They have some guys that are on a night. It's just not as pitiful as it was when I was

growing up in the 90s. There were some teams where it was just like... Or the mid-2000s was the worst. I remember there was one trade value year I couldn't even get to 40. I think I had to cheat and put guys that I didn't even want to put from 35 to 40. I think there's a couple reasons for it. I think one, guys are able to play longer now.

So the talent pool is automatically a little swollen because of the guys in their mid-30s or later. And people like LeBron and Carmelo, who 15 years ago would have been out of the league by now, or LeBron would have been at a different point of his career. Carmelo would have been gone. You just see Kyle Lowry, Chris Paul. These are guys that just shouldn't still be at the level they are, but the way the aging process works now. So you have that pool. We don't have the drug stuff anymore like we had in the 80s where the drugs wiped out a bunch of people we don't have the

in the 90s you had the rookie scale we didn't have it yet and a bunch of guys got paid too much too soon and some of them just didn't make it you know in ways that they should have and I've written about that the Kenny Anderson types and just injuries

yeah I mean like players injuries so injury recovery is better now, right? So guys can come back from things maybe they couldn't come back from. Things can get identified faster. So now that pool is better of just who's healthy. And then I think the specialty stuff really extends the player pool because you have people who are just shooters and you have people who are just rim runners. you know like it's so that's like an extra 20 jobs too this is the first time i've ever felt like they could have 32

teams i think they could do it i think they could add seattle and vegas and i don't think the league would suffer yeah or louisville i don't i don't think the league would suffer though i really think they have enough talent now i think another yeah i i agree with you and i think that another thing too is just that uh the spread of and like the availability of information. I don't know if I've talked to you about this with you about this before, but just like the availability of information in basketball players that like I think that the coverage and the fans following the league are smarter than ever like the the the availability of information is super super high and if you're a young player like when I was growing up playing you know I played I played my entire life I think I started like five years old but like the for me to get video of basketball it was so much harder to find and like I had a conversation with one of my nephews or my nephew about this. And he was asking me about a certain player and I pulled it up on YouTube and showed him

like game footage. So it's like that kind of stuff. And then you have like trainer culture and things like that. I just think I think that's probably why is that players can learn from all this information they have and get good. I just I just feel like the problem is that you kind of have homogenized players. We have a lot of guys that are really similar. It's nice when we can get the quirky guys in there, like the Jokic's and the Giddy's and things like that.

Yeah, but they're all from other countries. I mean, it's not an accident. I would say most of the truly interesting players we have weren't raised in America. And there's something to that. Like I'm talking about the people that stand out in some way that just seem different than other players. I do think there's a homogenization with the American players, even down to the shooting strokes. Like I think of when I was growing up, everybody had a different shot. You know, it was like, you know, you had guys flinging it from the side. You had the crazy Jamal Wilkes shot. Um, you had people, even birdshot, even though birdshot ended correctly, but he would take it from the side and kind of fling it and, um, it worked for him. But, um, now it just seems like, you know, everybody comes in shooting threes and there's a lot of similarity between players. And, you know, like you watch like a Jalen green, I've seen variations of Jalen green in how many different ways now in the last 30 years. Right. It's like

in that MJ tree of explosive athlete guards. That's why Edwards is kind of interesting to me when I watch him. I thought that Milwaukee game was fun last night. And a great and no holiday. I think they took Milwaukee a little by surprise. But Edwards was a guy who was a football player almost his whole life and kind of came into basketball late. So some of the stuff he does doesn't feel like AAU engine spit out thing. How much Edwards have you watched this year

uh i mean i've watched from my like rookie project i did on him i watched as much as i physically could i mean i've seen and i watched that game last night i mean edwards is a guy i think you hit it it's it's this multi-sport thing i mean you could write a book about this i'm sure people have i'd like to do a video about it someday. But this impact that multiple sports has on your cognition of the game is very much a thing. I mean, and Kobe Bryant has talked about this, that that was big for him. Because in the 80s, 90s, 2000s, the game was very like,

beat your man. And I feel like today we get into these situations where it's like a pick and roll heavy game. Now we're picking roles with like three guys in them. So you're just but soccer is good for that. But Edwards was Hakeem. Hakeem was like played soccer. It was like 14. Yeah.

Spatial sense. Embiid. I've made that argument a bunch that I think Embiid, his touch is because he was a volleyball player growing up. He has incredible touch if you just watch him. And it defies explanation that he could, his starting point, if you go watch what he was at like 15, 16 years old to now, I mean, it seriously is insane. In like three or four years, he went from, I haven't touched a basketball to maybe the number one pick in the draft. But yeah, soccer. But Edwards is kind of like he he's he played in a

system where it was like i'm i'm just beating one person he's not he doesn't have like a wide scope and you're kind of seeing him start to figure that stuff out you know i kind of compared him to wade a little bit where it's like the more like active he gets and the more he's sort of like thinking the game consistently he's just a terror man he's a terror of an athlete, and the sky's the limit with his skill set, honestly. It's funny, and he's going to screw up a lot of drafts going forward, right? Because that was a polarizing number one pick. The skills were there.

The upside was there. And we've seen that pick over and over again not work. And you see this, dude, the best way I could describe him is it reminds me of the Timberwolves are a high school team and they convinced the quarterback on the football team to play,

but he hasn't really practiced with them. But he's such a good athlete. He's so superior athletically to just about everybody in the court that he can kind of just by feel dominate. And it's like, man, imagine if this guy played basketball at the time. That's kind of how I feel watching Edwards sometimes. Cause I do feel like, I don't know what he's going to look like in three years,

but athletically it's all there. And whether he gets certain basketball stuff, I don't know. Could he be a guy that could actually play in four straight playoff rounds? Will there be a feel for the game piece of it that I just think you need? Like you even saw Giannis last year as that series went along, just mentally, there was this extra piece that you could see him figuring out. Could he, Edwards do that? I don't know, but man, athletically, we're talking to him, we're talking to Lomelo. And then on the flip side, you watch Harden, who's overweight again and doesn't get the lunch calls anymore. And the teams are just playing really aggressively on him. And he doesn't have the first step anymore. And you can see it. And it's like, where does his career go going forward? I'm watching all

these other guys on my TVs. I'm watching all these great athletes and Harden, to me, doesn't look like he has his athletic ability in the same way anymore. Does that come back? Anyway, with Edwards, that athleticism is just fucking staggering.

It really is. And we saw it last year, too. It's not like this is a new thing. Yeah, he's off the charts. I mean, he's tested higher. I have a friend that works at an athletic testing company. He was saying,

it's like, it's like Zion and Edwards and then everybody else. There's like a chasm between them and the field in terms of, and you know, hopefully, well, I don't even want to put that in the air, but you know,

his body holding up and things, it hasn't been an issue, but, uh, he's, he's, he's a freak, man.

I don't know. It's like, isn't it like the cousin of big dick energy with Pete Davidson and with that whole term, the BD, it's like big isn't it like the cousin of big dick energy with Pete Davidson and with that whole term, the BDE? It's like big athlete energy is its own thing. These guys who are just such great athletes, they actually manage to carry themselves like that. When they're in a professional basketball league, they still carry themselves like if there's any sort of decathlon, anything, I'm winning. Like, I really think he feels that way.

Oh, yeah. I mean, I'm sure that Edwards probably could have walked on the field for like university of Georgia last or a couple of years ago and played for them. Like he's that. And I mean, imagine being him. I mean, I would feel that way too. If I was him, like I have, I have never encountered a moment in my life where my physicality and my athleticism isn't the answer to the, like, I'm just to any questions. Of course he thinks that. And then also just a world-class swear. I don't know if you've seen any. Oh my God.

I saw the clip yesterday, but Giannis, he said, foot two, two, eight motherfucker. Um, the,

uh, like he's one of those guys, the twins could just bring him in like, Hey, we brought an Anthony Edwards for batting practice. And I could see him hitting like a 470 foot bomb. Like they there's, he's a little Bo Jackson. I don't mean to sound like a maniac,

but I really do think athletically, he kind of carries himself that way where it's like, yeah, we threw him on the mound and Anthony was thrown 91, but we had to kind of teach him how to hold the ball. You know, like I, that's who he is. And from an athlete standpoint, Giannis is still the, the,

the best athlete in the league, in my opinion. But if you're talking about who's coming up, you know, right underneath, it's the old LeBron title. There was like five, six years where LeBron athletically was just,

it was just unlike anything. Um, and then he had the brand to match. Yeah. Yeah. Like even like you go to 2012 LeBron and some of the stuff he was doing those last two rounds.

Edwards athletically, wow. I got to say, I think it was the right pick. I wouldn't have said that. I don't know if him and D'Angelo Russell make sense together, but you can kind of see why they were getting frisky

about Simmons trades and things like that, because if they can keep towns and Edwards together and add a third piece, and maybe it's Dame, if the Portland thing falls apart, who knows, but, um,

it hurt them that they didn't get that golden state pick. That was. I wanted them to get at least. Yeah. I was kind of like when they were having a good year, I know they were kind of trying to build the foundation and things like that and thinking they're going to keep D'Angelo and stuff, but I was just like,

you kind of want to get up there. It's a good enough draft. It's kind of worth, hey, maybe just let Anthony run, pick and roll for the rest of the season and just whatever happens happens and let's just go. I was watching them last night. It was cool to see Carl. Carl's been knocked a lot. Even I know we did our top 25 players, and we had a lot of disagreement.

We were like, does Carl belong there? I was like, yes, he belongs. He's the best shooting center ever. But he's still kind of deferring a little bit. I know you kind of want D'Angelo Russell to run wild and things like that. I'm not trying to turn this into a Wolves discussion, but the Wolves have something for the first time in a while.

Chris Finch is a legit good coach. They have a coach there. Yeah, Rossello was high on them when we did the over-under pod, mainly just because he just liked a lot of their players, which is over and over again a theme of this season

where you look at these rosters like, I like that guy. Kind of like that guy too. Oh, that guy. The Kings, who I've watched a lot of and I bet on a couple of times this year, is another one where they just have guys I like. It's weird. Fox. I just think Fox in the last four or five minutes of a game, I don't really like any of the shots

he takes. He's one of those, the stats end up where they need to be. So it looks like he's really good. But if you actually watch them them last five minutes of the game, when it slows down a little, I just don't like his shots. And I still feel like eventually that's going to have to become a Hal Burton situation, but he hasn't looked good in year two, in my opinion at all. I I've been disappointed by, uh, his year two. Yeah. He's kind of come back to regressed a bit but i mean i've always had sort of an up and down relationship with fox and this is sort of a a sort of a tense dynamic i've had with other kentucky fans that like fox was always a guy just he never like fit my basketball sensibilities you know it's just he kind of anytime there's like a heavy transition like speed kills kind of point

guard and the shooting is suspect. I've said this on this pod before. I'm picky, but I like my initiator to be able to shoot the ball. I just think it's really, really important in today's game and the consistency,

the shot selection. Yeah, I mean, Fox is shooting 16.7% from three this year on six attempts. Yeah, so not the best. Yeah, that's not great. And then, you know,

and then they, to miss on that Bagley pick in a loaded draft is really hard. That takes you a couple years to recover from when you had the second pick in a draft that after that pick, Luka Doncic and Trey Young were drafted. It's a hard one. You only have so many chances to get all NBA guys. And if you just completely torpedo one of those chances, pretty rough.

So, uh, action pack first, any, any last thing you're looking at for relief, any last subplot for you? I, I guess just quickly,

I was going to say, I guess we should mention the bulls since we talked about one half of the ball brothers. Uh, I mean, the bulls are an interesting team. Dan Devine wrote a really good story on, on the ringer about they, they have a stretch coming up. They've kind of

kicked around some teams. The schedule was pretty forgiving at the beginning, but they made some good moves. I mean, now they have a team where they can put lineups out there. I think their lineup of Lonzo, DeRozan, Levine, Vucevic, and Pat Williams is one of the best defensive points allowed per possession in the league. So it's a good switchable. We were talking about flexibility.

They have it now. I think they have questions in terms of their back line because Vucevic can have stretches where he just moves like a reanimated corpse. But he's playing. Offensivelyly he fits what they're doing. They're an interesting team to watch. I just think that, like, on the subject of Lonzo, it's been interesting to see him. This is the first time, I think, since he's been at UCLA

that he's been on, like, a well-constructed roster that's balanced. I don't think they should lean too heavily on him as a point guard, but I think that he is a good connective piece, but there have to be pieces there for him to connect, to work between, and he hasn't had that in the past. The Bulls are an interesting team to watch and hopefully check back in on them and see how they do in this

upcoming stretch. Yeah, by the time people hear this, they will have played the Knicks and that'll be a nice little test for them. A little nationally televised game. I continue to wish the Celtics had ended up with Lonzo. That was what I was hoping for this summer. It seems like that Bulls thing was a done deal forever. I will never understand what happened to him and the Pelicans

and why they would have wanted to move away from him, especially for what they got. It's just, you know, to crack the top three most nonsensical things David Griffin did running the Pelicans so far, that's in the top three. But I never, I just never understood it. That's exactly, and plus him and Zion

by all accounts liked each other. Zion went to bat for him. So I don't get it. And I feel like, like you said, he's in a good situation. You look back at his last few years. This is something I would always look at if I was a GM. What are the situations this guy's been in? Lonzo was in horrible basketball situations his entire career, you know? And that's just what it was. He never played for the right coach. He never had the

right roster around him. He never had the right theme for whatever the season was. And so I'm rooting for him. I like, he seems like he would be fun to play with, which as you know, is how I judge most of this stuff.

Not as fun as my guy, Evan Mobley. Do we need a nickname for Evan Mobley or no? It's tough. We can't do initials with him. Mobs?

I, I don't know. Mobius? Well, far be it from me. I'm sure we could put that out there. You might already have one. You might already have one.

Twitter people, work on that one. Evan Mobley needs a nickname. All right, Kyle. Good seeing you. Can't wait for your next video. And I look forward to you and Sharks chopping it up on Ringer NBA at some point soon.

Sure. Yeah, thanks for having me, man. What does possible sound like for your business? Yeah, thanks for having me, man. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend that powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express.

Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, he joins us every Thursday, Peter Schrager from Good Morning Football on the NFL Network and Fox. You can see him this weekend on Fox. We were doing really well this season. Last week, week seven, we lost $5,000.

And we did it. It was self-inflicted. We got a little cocky. We did a five-team tease on FanDuel. The Chiefs were one of the five teams. Even though we're getting 14 points with the Chiefs, it just didn't matter. And we lost on that.

We lost on them to score over 30 points. They obviously did not do that either. And they just demolished us. We are still up 1.565 million for the year. That's not where I'm starting though. There's two teams that we like this week for million dollar picks that have storylines that kind of tie into why we like them for million dollar picks. I'm going to start with Tom Brady, Who is plus 500 on FanDuel right now for MVP. Here are his stats. 2,275 yards leads the league.

Mm-hmm. 21 touchdowns, three picks. Has not played the Saints yet, a team that kind of haunted him, at least during the regular season last year. But, they're basically,

they've scored, the Bucs have scored 31, 48, 24, 17, 45, 28, 38. They don't really play anybody after this. Their only tough game left is Buffalo. And if you're just

looking big picture Brady age four is he 44 or 45? He's so old I don't even know how old he is. 44?

Yeah. 44. Could they get a one seed? Yeah. Could they go 14 Could they get a one seed? Yeah. Could they go 14-3 with a one seed? Sure. Could he throw for 50 TDs? It's in play when you look at the schedule they have left. So with 5,000

yards, 50 TDs, the one seed in the NFC, Mahomes is out. Kyler Murray could get hurt any week. Mahomes 5-1. Wait, what am I not seeing, Schrags? Where does Brady stack up in the Kyler Murray could get hurt any week. Mahomes five to one. Wait, what am I not seeing, Shrakes? Where does Brady stack up in the leaders? Because I find it fascinating.

He's not number one. I figure Derrick Henry and Kyler Murray and then Brady. Is he not third? Well, part of what happens when they do these future odds, especially, they're kind of trapped with what the initial odds are. It's very hard to move people backwards, you know, and like you saw it with my homes, my homes ended up moving

backwards because, you know, he was, I think he peaked at four to one. He's dropped way down now. He's 50 to one. He's actually kind of an intriguing dark horse. Oh, you're so good. We start this off with, we're angry at the chiefs within a minute minute, we're like, should we go Mahomes? Mahomes, 50-1, baby. Josh Allen's 3-1. Prescott's plus 450. Kyler's plus 450. Brady is plus 550. So he's better

than 500. It's plus 550. And then it goes Stafford, Rogers, Herbert. All of those are 10-1 on. Derrick Henry's 23-1. You mentioned him. Really? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, you like Derek Henry a little bit. I gotta tell you,

I did a whole perspective thing on it or retrospective if you want about Derek Henry and where he stands up in the context of history. And I went through the record books and I did a whole piece on good morning football about it. It's, it's wild what he's doing in this day and age. And he's about to be a rushing champion for three straight years, rushing touchdowns champion three straight years.

He has over 300 yards more than number two rusher in the league right now. And he's got 70 more carries than number two rusher in the league right now. He's leaking touchdowns by nearly twice as many as everybody else. And if that team continues to win, they feed him the rock all game long. Even a game where they're winning 27-3 on the Chiefs, he had 30 carries. Right. Do you see that stat?

He's on pace for 500 touches. Yeah. We're not throwing it out. We talked about this. I talked about it on multiple pods last week. We did that whole thing about the 10-year Russian champions and how he's just going to own that for the next couple of years. And Sal and I were talking about what a unicorn he was on Sunday night,

how it's very rare in football where you have somebody who's unlike anybody else at their position, right? And he's just completely unlike anyone else. So 500 touches to me sounds completely insane, but maybe we take it off the table with Derrick Henry. Maybe you just feel like, all right, maybe he's the one who could do it. If you're comparing him in eras, the only other guy to have as big a numbers comparably to the people in his era, it's nuts, Bill. It's Jim Brown. It's the only other guy who was that much,

because even Emmett had Barry. Dickerson was there with those guys in the late 80s. OJ Simpson had contemporaries. Jim Brown was by far- And murders. OJ had some murders too. Sure. Sure. In honor of Norm MacDonald and his passing, I'll just leave it out there. But I was going to say, Jim Brown was that much better than the number two guys and the number three guys of his generation. But Derrick Henry has such a gap over the competition. And we talked about it last week. You you want to say like, oh, McCaffrey and Kamara and Barkley and Chubb,

but it's like it's Henry and then the rest. And Jonathan Taylor's two and rushing. And it's by a large margin. So if he goes for 2000, two straight years, he's the first player to do that. And even if he does it in 17 games, 16 games, whatever, if they have a number one seed, maybe we pivot from Brady and we go with the bigger odds and say,

Derek Henry is a locomotive. Let's get on that train. Going through the schedule. They're at Indy this week, a game we're staying away from a million dollar picks. I just think it's a stay away. They're at the Rams the week after home, the Orleans home,

Houston at new England, home Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, home, San Francisco, home Houston at New England, home Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, home San Francisco, home Miami at Houston. There's a path to like 11 wins for a team that I'm not even sure is good because the hardest stretch of their season was Buffalo, Kansas City week six, week seven. They won both games. Beat them both. Yeah.

Within six days. And I like that they're playing the Rams and I like that they're playing the Colts. So it's not like, hey, did you guys realize Derek Henry's he's going to be in some big games on a lot of people watching. And that's really the key of it. I don't have an MVP vote. Did you ever have an MVP vote? I have it for NBA. Yeah. So I'm not allowed to bet on NBA. Yeah. So like, I don't have the vote or anything, but it's one of those deals where it's like, it is as simple as when you do it in primetime and there's narratives and all that stuff,

it peaks like, you have to do it in front of eyeballs. It can't be on an irrelevant team that's losing. It has to be for a winning team in big spots. And I think the last three weeks, Derrick Henry has been amazing and it's only getting better. I am actually really intrigued by that. I didn't think it would be that big a disparity

between Josh Allen and Kyler and then to him because the last one to do it was Adrian Peterson in 2013. I have it. So yeah, Peterson's 2012. Yeah. Sean Alexander 05 year, which we've all agreed never to talk about again. LT did it in, uh, I, my apologies to Lawrence Taylor, the Danny and Tomlinson LDT did it in 2006. There's Jamal Lewis won like one of them in the Oh three, but not, it just, it was Oh three was all over the place. And then you have to go back to Marshall Falk in 2000. So it's pretty where it's very, for the running back to win today's game where it's all passing and it's all quarterbacks. And this one team, because we had Tiki Barber on a good morning football and he made a great point.

It was like, they were down 14 points to the Seahawks and their strategy was keep feeding the ball to Henry. Like it wasn't like, let's start throwing the ball and let's do, you know, no, it's, that's their offense. And you keep on giving it to him and teams do stack the box. He still gets the yards. Kansas city actually fared very well against him, but it was, it was over before it even got to the point where he needed to go nuts. So they took their foot off the pedal a little bit and he still put up big numbers. It seems like he won two games. He won two games by himself. He won the Seattle game by himself and he won the, game by himself yeah I'm gonna make the case for Brady okay

these are all about narratives right yep we know it's a lot harder for the running back to win the MVP the I think it gets sexier a word I rarely like to use with sports only really use it for MVP choices

but I think you like feisty you like sexy like appealing enticing I think the Brady thing gets sexier MVP choice. What do you like? You like feisty? You like sneaky? Sexy, like appealing, enticing. I think the Brady thing gets sexier if they go on a winning streak. Okay.

And the question is, with the way that their schedule is set up now, and the fact that they've been a little banged up the last couple weeks. I mean, their secondary still is in good shape.

It looks like Levante David's coming back. They lost Gronk. They lost Antonio Brown. They've still won four straight. They beat New Orleans. That's five. Washington, New York, that's seven coming off the bye.

Then they're at Indy, at Atlanta, eight, nine. Conceivably, they could have a nine-game winning streak heading into week 13 against Buffalo. And that could end up being the regular season game of the year. Buffalo, Tampa, nine-game winning streak, two MVP candidates, Brady going for 5,000 yards, 50 TDs. Also, as we've discussed in the past, the 5,050 thing, there's an extra game this year.

It's like a Jedi mind trick. Those numbers, you just see them and you go, wow, 5,000, but it's a tiny bit easier. It's not easier, but it's one 17th easier. Yeah. So that would be the case. So my point is. Is there voter fatigue, you think?

Manning won it five times. When was the last time Brady won? It's been. A couple years ago. He beat out Todd Gurley, I think in 2018. Yeah. When it was Gurley's big touchdown season. Well, do you think he gets credit for convincing either guys to stay

or guys to come? Is that part of an MVP for you? Brown and Gronk are there because of him. Godwin probably stayed because of him. You're right. Barrett came back because he wanted to win another. These guys didn't take the easy money and go anywhere else for big money. Also, he's the offensive coordinator.

Bruce Arians admitted, two weeks ago, like, yeah, I don't even go to the offensive meetings. And this is Bruce Arians is allegedly the, you know, this offensive guru, the quarterback Brady's just like, I'll take it. Thanks. It's going to be me and Byron Lefkowitz. We've got this Bruce, you go over there, have a couple of cocktails. Oh no, there's no doubt that Brady's been amazing. It's about the voters and what they're going to say. And if Derrick Henry has one of these 2000 yard seasons, is it like, ah, we know what Brady does. We got to give respect to Henry. Josh Allen could still go 16 and one. Like there's a lot of guys obviously, but if it's to come down to Brady being as good as he was in 07, and honestly,

he looks better right now, I think than he did in 07. I'm not kidding. I think he looks so amazing right now. It's it's nuts how good he looks. And, you know, Romo and Nance are getting these CBS games with Brady, which is kind of a rarity. And it's been like dolphins blow out. Then you get last week and it's like the Bears. Here come the worthy Bears and this great defense blow out. They're blowing.

They're smoking teams. And Brady's as good as it gets. I well, it was funny watching him with the Mannings on Monday night who are his peers, right? Eli came into the league five years after him. Manning came into the league a year before and he's on there and he's wearing a hat.

He looks like he's 28 and he's with these two retired NFL quarterbacks who have been... Peyton's been out of the game for six years. Eli's been out for a couple. And Brady looks like he popped out of a freaking time machine to join them for a quarter.

And I, you could almost see in Peyton, there's like this look of like, Jesus, I used to be neck and neck with this guy. This guy's still playing and killing me legacy wise. Yeah, no,

it's nuts. And it's like, Case Keenum wins that game last week. i i was laughing i'm like case keenum geez i feel like he's it's been everywhere he started for six different teams he's that then i saw chase daniels the backup in the chargers i'm like chase daniel still in the league case keenum is like 14 years younger than tom br. Right. And he's like a wily veteran at this point. And you're like, oh, wow.

Case Keenum. Well, bringing this full circle. The Saints Bucks, which is one of the teams we're targeting or one of the games we're targeting. I was trying to make the case in my head for the Saints plus five and a half. And it was like, oh, you know, think what they did to the Packers. They had real success against Brady last year. For whatever reason, these NFC South games are always wonky.

You're getting points. Saints are at home. Biggest game of their season. I just can't get there with their passing attack. I've seen a lot of Saints. I think that Winston was, what, 3.3 yards a pass in Seattle. Now, we lost in that Seattle game.

We almost hit this unbelievable all three underdog parlays last week. And it came down to Seattle's kicker botching two easy field goals in the rain. So, yeah, I get it. It was rain. I don't think their receivers are even average. I have Callaway on two fantasy teams. He's kind of a mass murderer. They just don't have good receivers.

And it's like any good team, just make sure Kamara doesn't beat you coming out of the backfield. And they're really not going to be able to throw the ball. And at some point, we haven't really seen the Saints have to play from behind either.

What are they like when they're down 10? You saw with the Bucks and the Bears last week, and we had the Bears, bad pick. Once they were up 10, it was like you can't run on them. They know you can't run on them. They're going to blitz the shit out of you. They're going to get pressure up the middle and all of a sudden now you're down

17, you're chucking the ball under triple coverage. I actually think they're going to kill the Saints this weekend. Really? I do. I could see the case the other way but I don't think the Saints can match them score-wise. I think the Bucs now with these guys back, it's 30 plus a game from here on out. I don't see a scenario where it's not 30 plus a game. What are your thoughts? My thoughts are,

I watched that game as if it was the Super Bowl on Monday night and I was rooting against Jameis and he was doing everything in his power with those receivers to keep us alive. I mean, the Seahawks had the late hit by Marquise Blair, on third and nine, which was inexplicable. Then they had a 350-pound defensive lineman, Al Woods, go off sides on a field goal, which not only gave the Saints four more downs, and not only gave them the first down, but it took off more time off the clock. And then Gino Smith and then the two field goals and the Seahawks still almost won. So like the Saints offense, it was all Camara. It was everything they had going. And I feel like they Buccaneers, they can isolate Jameis Winston, a guy that they know very well,

and they're not going to be able to keep up and score enough with them. And the Saints, nobody runs on the Bucs, right? No one runs on the Bucs. No one will. And I just think the Saints defense is really good. So I feel like this might not be an out of control blow. I like the Bucs, but I'm not sure. Can I give you a counter to the Saints defense?

Yeah, yeah. Who put up points on them? What quarterback threw for 402 yards against the Saints this season? Was it like Taylor Heineke? Who was it? Your guy Dimes. Is that right? That's right.

But that game was 21-10 with seven minutes left, and the Giants all of a sudden start pouring it on. It was one of those weird anomalies. Kedarious Tony. Or, I don't know. I'm in on this Bucs team. I think they know they're good now. What I saw from that Bears game,

which we both watched intently because we had the Bears plus 12 and a half. They stepped on their neck and put them away the way a really good team does. And I think they're the class of the NFC right now. I don't like what I'm seeing from the Rams in terms of letting teams hang around. They let teams hang around.

I don't think their defense is as good as we thought it was going to be. But the real thing is they can't run the ball. So when they have, even when they have leads, it's hard for them to kind of

keep the lead, protect the league. Whereas like somebody like Brady, all right, third and eight, I'm going to get 22 here. Like he's just, you just basically

can't ever stop them. And when they're up 17, they're even more dangerous. And that's why I feel like if Jameis is behind, that's where we want to be. Jameis down 10. Agreed. Lock it in. Here's a good story I got last week. And I, I broke the news on, uh, the Fox pregame show on Sunday, but there's more to it. Uh, their defensive backs coach, Kevin Ross had COVID couldn't coach. And Sherman like walks into Todd Bowles's office and they're like, all right, Sherman's in their training. He's like, I want to,

I want to help coach this week. I'll help coach this week. So they're like, all right, you can help coach. Then he gets into practice and Richard Sherman is like fully coaching the defensive backs. They get to the game. They showed him he's got the headset on now he's coaching the defensive backs. So that, that stuff right there. And I know this, people might be rolling their eyes about, Hey, all right, whatever. He's a bit, but like, that doesn't happen when you're in a team that's kind of not going to, that's Richard Sherman being like, holy shit. I appreciate these guys taking a chance on me after what happened this summer. Holy shit.

I have something more to give than just playing and I'm not coming back on the field anytime soon, but how can I help this team? And they they're all in that's how they are down there it's there's no selfish players in there and like antonio brown used to be a diva and he's not that way uh some of these wide receivers that you'd think can get big money and get big like like godwin not that way evans not that way brady's throws his 600th touchdown. It's almost like the team did it, like the whole reaction. And I say all that because it's like, there won't be a complacency. They've not gotten bored. And there's not this like, what do you call it? The Pat Riley thing, the disease of me that you always mention. That is not the case. Not as long as they've got all

these veterans and Brady leading the charge. I'm with you. And to be fair, we're looking at them as the money line minus 255, which we're going to talk about. The bucks are minus five and a half and minus 255. There's a small piece as a longtime Brady watcher. There's a small piece of him when it's like this team owns you. This team got you last year. Oh, look out.

That team has figured out Brady. He has a tendency over the years. That's usually when he's like hyper-focused. Like, oh, really? This team has me? And that will, they'll turn it up. I remember Miami in 07, which the clips were just online about. That was Moss' two craziest touchdowns, two of like his three craziest touchdowns of the year. But that was one of those where it's like, oh, Miami over the years, they've gotten Brady a few times. And they just, it was 59-0.

They just completely beat the shit out of him. On the Manning cast, they asked him, he's like the early 2000s Dolphins, but Dave Wanstead coaching, they gave him fits. He gave him credit and said that. Did they not check that box though, going in there in the playoffs and winning in the divisional round? Or you feel like that's? No, they did. It's just, he had that thing.

Whenever he had a good team, he would pour it out in Miami. Him on turf, indoors, that team on turf, I think the Bucs, there's always like the Mike Evans, oh, why is he rolling around in the first quarter? There's that. I get it. But Darren, we're going to talk about a team we're thinking about parlaying with them after this break. How can you be sure your child is making the right decision when choosing a university?

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at yorku.ca slash write the future. Okay, so the big thing we try to figure out for week seven of the Million Dollar Picks is how do we make money on the Bengals who are minus 10 and a half at the Jets? They're minus 500. And normally I would look at this and go, got to figure out a three team tease, some sort of parlay bet, whatever. The Bengals coming off an awesome win. The Jets are starting Mike White, who did a great job riding White Lotus this year. But unfortunately, White Lotus, he did a great job. No writer's room for White Lotus. Just cranked out himself. Oh yeah.

Talented guy. Not sure he's the quarterback I want against the Cincinnati team. It's a perfect storm of, I think the Jets now realize our destiny is we're now one of the three worst teams in the league. The Zach Wilson,

he's going to be out for four weeks. They cannot run the ball at all. Defensively. They've had some losses. I don't know if Mosley is mostly coming back this week. He wasn't there last week. And then he said it about 14 times in the first quarter. The Patriots keep running up the gut.

Well, we know there is no Mosley. Right. So maybe they throw this game away. So we, we are targeting the Bengals this week, but give me a empty your Bengals notebook. What do you got for us?

So I speak with Zach a lot and I think he's the most anonymous head coach maybe in the NFL. If he was to walk into an airport, I don't think anyone's stopping him for a photo. And yet his whole thing is like, we're not surprised at this. Like this isn't a shock to anyone here because of what they built.

It's a very young offense. So it's Burrow, it's Chase, it's T Higgins, it's Mixon, those are young guys. And Pariah, they have a good backup running back. Like they always have somebody in there who could do stuff. And they're a really explosive young offense. That's going to put points,

but the defense, there's no first or second year players on that defense. And it's a lot of like discarded players from other places. So Chidobe Awuzie was with the Cowboys and now it's like, all right, my second chance here. It's Mike Hilton. It's Vaughn Bell.

And then you go down to Trey Hendrickson. And it's like this great mix of veteran guys who have been through games and have won games on good teams trying to build something. And then young players who were excellent in college and have played in big games at that level, all with a very mild mannered coach and an offensive coordinator in Brian Callahan, who's Bill's son, who I think is going to get head coaching interviews this year because he's unleashing things in these players that, you know, right out of the gates, they're able to do. Jamar Chase, that's not by accident. That's obviously him as a talent, but it's also the coaching to get him going, get him going like he has been in year one. I would describe their defense as fast and hungry. That's a good way to put it. Look at their seven games. They gave up 24 to Minnesota in OT. As we always say, like week one, you're not really sure yet.

20 to Chicago, 10 to Pittsburgh, 21 to Jacksonville. I think one of those TDs was late. 25 to Green Bay in OT, 11 to Detroit, but then 17 against Baltimore. It seems like a defense that Arrow's pointing up.

Wouldn't you say? I think defense is really good and really smart and disciplined. And last week's game, it was big on the national stage, I think, that they did that to the Ravens

and they got their respect. It was also really big in that locker room because they've been talking and preaching that and it's like, Holy shit. We just punched them in the mouth who have beaten us five straight times and run all over us. But it's like, no, no, we just were bullies to them in their building.

And it's not one of these where I think they're going to take the foot off the pedal. It's like, okay, we're not going anywhere. We're ready to go. The last piece of it is Burrow who has been fantastic and has been so confident since he got in the league. And so I guess the alpha in that room, like I remember the draft, it was over Zoom. So it was tough for these teams to interview the players. And there was no question he wasn't going number one, but another team got to do a Zoom with him. And I spoke to a coach afterwards who met with Burrow, met with Tua, met with Herbert. And he's like, Tua's got a great story and he's going to be fine. And Herbert has these physical gifts,

but Burrow is that Pied Piper where Burrow says, I want to go down a dark alley. And you know, it's not the right thing to do, but you're like, if Joe Burrow's doing it, let's go. I want to be a part of that. Oh, it's like Trent Dilford's car keys test. If you had the five QBs, it was the draft in 2010. If you had the five rookie QBs, you'd throw the car keys to Mark Sanchez. Is that what he said? Yeah. And it was like, that's both funny that Mark

Sanchez was the answer, but Mark Sanchez was two AFC title games. But anyway, that always makes me think of that. So they would throw the keys to Burrow. But that's the thing. And it's like, all right, so then he tears up his knee. And all offseason, he's still running shit. And he's still the guy. And then gets on the field and they're like, this guy is the man.

Like, they all think he's the man. And the coaches think he's the man. And we make excuses and we say, well, you know, you don't have to be a big vocal. Like, Eli was great and he wasn't this screamer. And Flacco was kind of this calm demeanor and nick falls was in a in your face guy at the end of the day sometimes it is nice to have a big asshole as your quarterback who's just like follow me let's go i'm not going to be the nicest guy in the room but we're going to go win and he sounds like dan fouts have you ever seen the uh

oh the old mfc video of dan fouts i the MFC! He's got the hat on. The thing with Burrow, that makes me like him even more, because he was obviously amazing at LSU, and I've loved everything I've seen from him in the Bengals. Even last year, he was getting the shit kicked out of him, because I couldn't block for him. You think, like, alright, why did he transfer?

Oh, because Urban Meyer Urban Meyer evaluated that Dwayne Haskins was better. Well, what have we learned from Urban Meyer the last four or five years? He might have just been a complete jackass who was good at recruiting and that's it. Like, what a mess. And I think that was probably the best thing that ever happened at Borough too, right? It's like, these guys don't want me.

I know I belong here. Ends up at another school and say, I'm all in. And we should be all in with the Bengals this week. This week. And I feel like, you know, a lot of people are gonna say, you guys are Johnny come lately. Where were you in week three? I think it's fair to adjust and adapt and be like, we had him in underdog parlay. We were there. Yeah, we won. But it's like, you know, I think there's this resistance from a lot of these fan bases when they have these like breakout years. And it's like, no, no, no, no. It's okay to adapt. CBS

last week, they had the national game in the one o'clock hour. 17% of the country got Bengals-Ravens when the Bengals were 5-1 and the Ravens were 5-whatever they were. That'll change.

Now it's okay. We're getting to know this team. It's going to be a little slow for everyone else to get on it. And it's okay to get on it. I really enjoy watching them play. I really think they're good. And I don't think they're going anywhere with that guy at quarterback. He's just too much of a straight, straight shooter. And he's too much of a leader. It's not, they're not going to fade away. Jets this week, Cleveland at home next week. Jets are in a bad place. Chance they could be seven and two, the Bengals heading into the bye.

And then it gets tougher and we'll find out. But I think, look, we have every year, we have the first half teams that you ride. And then there's always one team in the second half that maybe might not be for real. You know, it could be Arizona this year, who knows. But after the buy,

they have at Las Vegas, home Pittsburgh, home chargers, home San Fran at Denver, and then home Baltimore, home Casey at Cleveland. Now, if Casey just never gets their shit together,

if the chargers continue to kind of be arrow pointing down, maybe that schedule is not as hard as we thought. But if you had to pick AFC North, Bengals, Ravens, Browns, who would you take in that division? Because I think I would take the Bengals. After last week, I would take the Bengals. I'm going to give you the odds. I'm going to give you the odds.

Who do you think is favored? Ravens. Ravens minus 120. Browns plus 250. Bengals plus 330. Really? Yeah. Not a lot of believers out there.

They're still waiting. I thought they destroyed Baltimore last week in their building. And the confidence they have off of that is going to be incredible. You would think. All right. So we're looking at them. Do we break the mold and talk about that bet? That sounds like a very interesting one.

A division bet? A division bet and we can put a couple of flyers. Yeah. Brady plus 550 and Bengals plus 330. So Bengals, we could maneuver this line if we wanted. We could move it to minus nine and a half and bet it straight up with a little big. Or, and that would be, let me find out what that would cost us.

Oh, so they have the alternate spreads on FanDuel, right? I don't know if you're aware of that. I don't know. The alternate spread, we could do minus eight and a half, minus 140, minus nine and a half, minus 130. I think they run away with this one.

I don't know much about Mike White, the quarterback for the Jets. I don't think the Jets know much more than he's been with them a couple of years bouncing around. Western Kentucky, fifth round pick from the Cowboys. We agree the Bengals are winning.

So what do we do? We have a three-team money parlay we could do. Okay. The Bucs, just to win. The Bengals, just to win. And the Chiefs, just to beat the Giants. Chiefs make me nervous. They cost us a lot of money last week.

And that's plus 104. We could also do Bucks, Bills, Bengals. Bills against Miami. Bills are minus 850 against Miami. Put those three together, it's minus 111. So basically we could bet a million and $110,000 to win a million on those three. If we want it, do we go four or we could get super ambitious and trouble bill and just say,

fuck it. The Bengals are beating the jets. Let's just bet the money line minus 500. Let's risk. We made all this profit during the season. We're up 1.565 million. Let's bet 3 million bucks on the Bengals

to win 600K. Just that. All we have to do is they just have to win by one point. This feels like uncut gems right now. My heart's out of my chest.

It's not even my brain. So we'll come back to that. We'll figure that out when we do the million dollar picks. But no way the Dolphins beat the Bills, right? There's a way, but I don't see it in Buffalo. I don't.

Not after a bye. I don't see it, no. Something slightly scares me just because it's like the Dolphins whole season. They're desperate. And Tua playing for his job. Yeah.

And then Chiefs Giants, like, I don't know. I don't know what to make of this. I don't want to throw the Chiefs in a tease at this point in my life. They don't deserve our love. Yeah.

Some straight up games. Pats, Chargers. It's going to be a home game for the Pats. There's going to be 50,000 Boston fans there. The Chargers, 17th at DVOA. Their wins are Washington, KC, Vegas, and Cleveland.

They have the 32nd run DVOA. I think the Pats can really run the ball on them. They can. Mike Williams is not 100% somebody that I think would have given the Pats a lot of trouble. I think the Pats, after following Belichick for 21 years, they're going to double Keenan Allen. They're going to make sure Eckward doesn't beat them coming out of the backfield. And Jared Cook beat us.

Take their chances with everybody else. The biggest thing is Josh McDaniels finally emerged from his coma last week. It was nice to see. He woke up. It was a little like

when Adrian came out of her coma in Rocky II and was like, I want you to do one thing for me. Win. Well, what are we waiting for? Josh McDaniels is like, oh shit, I can do some fun stuff with this team and broke out of his shell. Out of the gates too. That first Kendrick Bourne, like, here we go. And I think you mentioned it to Sal. I think there's a lot of symbolism and a lot of importance and significance in Belichick and Mac on the sidelines, down the stretch, smiling, laughing, hugging.

Because those first few weeks, it was like, son, it was not pleasant to watch. And it looked like, all right, Mac is earning a little bit of that Belichick attaboy stuff, which does not come easy. Do you think the Patriots, how inspired will they be by nephew Kyle being there in person on Sunday, do you think? Have we alerted TMZ or Demois or any of these sites that do the celebrity sightings? Kyle, try to cut yourself off after 10 drinks.

Get your camera on. Can't wait. So Warren Sharpe threw something interesting at me, an idea, and you can listen to Warren on the Ringer Gambling Show. He was saying if the Pats, if this game's going to be close, they're four and a half point. This game's right in the Vegas zone. Vegas is like, we don't know either.

Plus four and a half. That's the classic. We just have no idea. If you like the Pats, why not take them plus three in the first half? Interesting. Because if they're going to cover or stay in the game or possibly win the first half will set the tone.

If they're down 10 in the second half and Max got a third now I'm nervous. Bosa's heating up. And it's like instead of taking the plus four and a half why not just take the plus three for the first half? Interesting.

What are your thoughts on that? I like that a lot. Which one do you like more? I think the plus three and a half, the first half is a good call. Plus three, not plus three and a half. I would love the three and a half. I would love that little. I think that extra point and a half in the second half, though.

Sure do. All right. Well, we can come back to that. We are taking, we agree, the Pats. I do. All right. Well, we can come back to that. We are taking, we agree the pats. I like the pats and I like that. I, they won 45 to nothing in that building last week and last year. And it's not like they're coming in there like, Ooh, a trip to LA. Like this is a business trip. They know what's up. Plus one 94. We'll be talking about them again in underdog parlay. I, the reason I love this game for them is I just like the matchup.

I think they're really going to be able to run the ball, control the ball. The play action Mack was just so crisp last week. It really got me so pumped. They started using the tight ends quite a bit more. Yep. And Janu, I'm unclear if he's playing this week, but the Hunter Henry

piece. Hunter Henry's been good. Yeah. Alright, so we'll come back to that. And the Chargers, the Eckler thing is what scares me. Mm-hmm. Eckler coming out of the backfield has been the type of guy that's haunted this Patriots team

for like 10 years. Give me some names. Give me some guys that I'm giving you nightmares. Oh, just name anyone. Like Kamara a couple weeks ago. Yep. Just like the wheel routes

and little delayed screens, all that stuff. Like, just like the wheel routes and little and delayed screens, all that stuff. Like they just have trouble. And the high tower thing is something to watch. He didn't play last week against the jets. They didn't miss him at all. I think he's looked old and slow this year. Yeah.

I haven't heard his name mentioned many times on the broadcast and you don't hear anyone around the league being like, wow, high towers doing it, but the young guys are playing well. But the young guys are. And Judon, Judon's been fantastic. He just doesn't look the same. But the young guys are. And Judon, Judon's been fantastic.

He's, Hightower's led the league in grunts from Kyle this year. Where, Hightower is like two steps behind somebody in a pass play and Kyle just going,

ugh. Anyway, that part worries me. Okay, so we mentioned Bucks minus five and a half. Just three more games really quick.

Talk me out of Seahawks minus three over the Jags. The kitchen sink game was Sunday night against the Steelers. They lost it. The kitchen sink game was Monday night against the Saints. They lost it. You think after that loss Monday night, I'm going to go and say, yeah, they're going to wrap. Jaguars have nothing to lose.

They're going to come out and play loose. I don't know. Seahawks have been putrid the last two weeks. I can't get behind that. Seattle's 10th in DVOA somehow. Okay. Jaguars 32nd in run DVOA. They lost Chark for the year.

Yep. Seattle beat Indy. OT lost to Tennessee. Killed by Minnesota and beat San Francisco to start the year. Wilson gets hurt in the Rams game, which they almost won anyway. Sure. OT lost to the Pittsburgh. Yep.

And that Saints game is fucking monsoon. I think we throw it out. Okay, so what's the argument that somebody's going to turn it around? I think to me, I was watching that game Monday night. I'm like, well, that's done. Like this team's done. Counter.

Okay. Urban Meyer. How many more chances do we have to bet against this guy? They got a win before the bye. They won in London. They came back and beat the Dolphins. Like, I don't know.

It's... Maybe that was their one win. All right. So you're vetoing that one. Are you exercising your veto? I'm going to use my veto. You're using your veto. Yeah, I think the Jaguars hang with them.

How do you feel about... In Seattle. I just think this is House's favorite game of the week, and House has been kind of hot. He'll be talking about it on Friday. See, he likes the Seahawks. It's just like, if I told you this line, if we were in August,

and we're like week eight, but in week eight, Seahawks-Jags, what do you think the line is? We would have said 10 and a half? I've watched every snap of the Seahawks the last two weeks.

They're one of the worst teams in football. They're pretty bad. Yeah, they're pretty bad. All right. Lions-Eagles. Lions plus three and a half over the Eagles.

Phillies 21st and DVOA Detroit's 27th. If right. Lions, Eagles, Lions plus three and a half over the Eagles. Philly's 21st at DVOA, Detroit's 27th. If you take out week one, which they did on football outsiders, go to football outsiders.com. I'm a subscriber. Good site. If you take out week one,

Philly's 25th in DVOA. Okay. These are basically, these two teams are basically even. Lions lost Baltimore by two, mini by two, Rams by nine. If they don't win this week, there by two Rams by nine. Um,

if they don't win this week, there are four best chances left home, Chicago at Denver, at Atlanta, at Seattle. They're close. You have a, you have a good feel for that lions team.

Like they're not going. Oh, and 17. Are they, I can't see it. No. And I thought they played again. Moral victories.

Don't mean anything. And they lost by almost 10 points, but like they played their asses off last week in a tough spot, and I thought golf played well. That interception is going to happen. It's what it is. I think I go down these rosters, and I don't think the Eagles roster is all that much better than Detroit's roster right now. Well, and Sanders is out. Yeah.

Sanders is out. They've had other injuries. Their quarterback has not looked outstanding. I know fantasy-wise, I'm on a show, and Kay Adams is out. They've had other injuries. Their quarterback has not looked outstanding. I know fantasy-wise, I'm on a show and Kay Adams is great. She does the fantasy football and she's talking about Hurts' numbers. She's having this amazing fantasy season. Is there ever a discrepancy of actual quarterback play and then fantasy numbers and Jalen Hurts? Because you watch these games, it's like anytime he needs to complete a big pass, it's not happening. And they're down big early. I don't

know. Sirianni gave a quote this week about the flower. Did you see this whole thing? He was comparing his team to a flower and there's got to be seeds and roots and fertilizer. And I'm wondering, week eight, you start talking about flowers and seeds and roots and water. And I don't know where that team's going right now. Is he our deer in the headlights leader through eight weeks on the sidelines? Or is it Arthur Smith? Who would you go with? Nick and Arthur both are really good offensive minds.

It's just how they verbalize and show themselves. Sirianni's got four highlighters in his visor and stuff. What is going on? For the Iverson jersey early on in the season or theverson jersey early on in the season, or the beat Dallas thing early on in the season. I love the effort. I love it all. I don't

know if that team's good enough and if that team is responding right now to what all that is. And something major happened. As you know, I have one of the only houses on Minshew Island. Do you think the trade of Minshew shattered the confidence of everyone because they knew that Minshew was the guy and they're like of Minshew shattered the confidence of everyone?

Because they knew that Minshew was the guy and they're like, how we, why are we not starting our backup? They trade Flacco to the Jets. Somehow get a six round pick for Flacco. The same price that Minshew costs. The road is now clear for my guy Minshew. Do you think he plays this week? He's one away now.

He wasn't suiting up for some of these games. No. So it was like, you couldn't even say, and I think the reason is because they were like, well, we don't want him

kind of breathing on Hurts' neck. But now it's like, all right, he's right there. He's the backup. Yeah. And so I think if the Lions beat the Eagles,

I think we see Minshew next week. Okay, but not this week. You don't think he goes in mid-game? I think we could. That's what worries me about Lions plus three and a half. Like, what if they're up 14-3 at halftime and it's like Minshew comes in.

And Minshew, once he comes in and he's firing balls around, I think the Eagles have good receivers. I enjoy their skill guys. I would like to see somebody who just flung it around with that team for a half. Has there ever been a player like Minshew with you in the NFL? Like an irrational love for a half. Has there ever been a player like Minshew with you in the NFL?

Like an irrational love for a guy that has been in the league, but like, that's not on your team. It's not, you just, this guy's going to be good and he's going to have this great career. And we're going to have to all be like, wow,

Simmons was back in his, I don't even think he's back in him when he was third string in Philly. Yeah. I don't even think it's a great career. I just think he can be confident. You know, it's like, I was like, kind of like Case Keenum.

Yeah. But he never did it. And then he went to Minnesota that one year and all of a sudden they figured out how to use it. Now he looked terrible in that Browns game 10 days ago or a week ago, whenever that was. But I just think Minshew can fling it around. Yeah.

Hypothetical, because you were pushing for the Patriots to go get him. Would you rather have Mack or Minshew? It's hypothetical. Obviously, long-term, Mack. What are you talking about? Mack. Mack. I'm all in on Mack. The question for me is Mack,

if Parsons had fallen to 15... Can I give you one more hypothetical? Because San Francisco is on fire right now, but what the hell is going on with their team? The whole market is. They traded up

and took Lance and gave up two future first round picks. What would the Niners, what would they be right now if they had Mack instead of Lance? It's brutal. It's the biggest what if

of the season, right? If they just took Mack, they kept the picks. They kept next year's first round pick and the biggest what if of the season, right? If they just took Mack, they kept the picks. They would have had him at 12, kept next year's first round pick and the following year's first round pick. Now they have Lance Garoppolo who looks like a shell of himself,

completely incapable of doing much. It was reported this week they had to trade for Garoppolo. The Pats were going to give up a second. So if they took Mack at 12, traded a second for, you know, got a second for Garoppolo and then

kept the two extra firsts that have two firsts and a second and a better quarterback. Tough. Is it too soon though? Like, is that one where it's like, let's give it a couple of years before we even weigh in? Because I think it's too, I don't think it's too soon because I think that team has really good players and was kind of built to be successful this year and next year. And now they can't be.

I think you're spot on. I think the expectation was we're winning. We've got a Super Bowl team from two years ago. If we're healthy, we're going back. Jimmy will get us there, and if he can't, we got this great backup, and neither guy can get on the field and do it. Listen, Sal and I had played the Shanahan game on Sunday.

I know you were hurt. Wade Michaels or Walt Michaels, I heard. Yeah, 31 and 39 through 70 games. He called Shanahan a ringer employee because he came on the podcast. That's funny. Last one, Vikes plus one and a half against the Cowboys.

This is probably a stay away. I think he can make the case for either team. Both of them, really good offenses. I think the one thing that worries me is they did a good job. Solak and Sharp talking about this, about Minnesota great at blitzing. It's why their

defenses succeeded against some of the teams they played this year. Dak, incredible against the blitz. I'm leaning toward Dallas in this game, but I also, as I've said to you many times this season, I kind of like the Vikings. I think it's just a stay away. I would say stay away. Mike Zimmer and Mike McCarthy have coached against each other a million times. Uh, I Dallas is great. And I know Cowboys fans

will say, how could you still not believe it's not, not believing it's Minnesota has been in every single game. They've won their last two games and we've had a thrill ride with Greg Joseph, their kicker. I would not like to ever have money on that guy ever again, either way, good or bad. So I'd say let's stay away from that one. All right. We're going to come back. We're going to talk about underdog parlays, including the FanDuel boost that is in play now.

FanDuel teaming up with us now. They love the underdog parlays. Incredible. We'll come back right after this. that is in play now. FanDuel teaming up with us now. They love the underdog parlays. Incredible. We'll come back right after this. All right, underdog parlays. We almost went three for three last week where all three bets would have won. One of them won for us,

but we came very close and had a lot of fun doing it. Pats are plus 194 against the Chargers. So I want to include that. We discussed. I like that bears plus one 62 against the 49ers. I feel like it's a stay away. I'm just mentioning. No, yeah. I'm going to stay away from Chicago. I don't know what the deal is with the coach. Who's calling the plays. Who's playing what the quarterback's mental stages right now after last week, I I'd stay away that the visual of Justin Fields just bummed out on

the bench really, really was a downer last week. Yeah, and we have, me and Sal and House have Nagy as first coach fired, which is somehow still available because Gruden resigned. And this feels like if they lost this game, there would be a coaching change. I'm going to stay away. I just want to monitor it.

Saints plus 198 against the Bucs. We're staying away from that. Steelers plus 162 against the Browns. They're plus three and a half. Look, they could easily beat the Browns. We have to throw that. I'm not even going to do like football side. Look, we don't know what we're getting with this.

They were trick or treat. Ironically, this game's on Halloween. Roethlisberger can throw five picks. I wouldn't be shocked. Miles Garrett could. What about the other quarterback? Yeah. Case? I think Baker's going to try. Either waylisberger can throw five picks. I wouldn't be shocked. Miles Garrett could. What about the other quarterback? Yeah. Case?

I think Baker's going to try. Either way, it's going to be bad. The Odell thing's a mess. Chubbs might play hurt. In Cleveland is the only thing that makes me a little, but whatever. It's fine. Steelers have owned that place before.

I like the Steelers against the run. No? Yeah. Their defense. We talked about it the last few weeks. They're going to. No? Yeah. Their defense. We talked about it the last few weeks. They're still good. They're going to be in every game. Their defense is good.

I would rather bet the plus 162 than the plus three and a half. I think that's just, oh, just better value. So we'll throw them in and then the Lions plus 162 against the Eagles. Yeah, why not? Let's do it.

So we can either do mix and match with the three like we did last week, or just do the Pats with the Steelers, which is plus 670, and the Pats with the Lions, which is plus 670. Unless you want to also do Steelers-Lions. What are you thinking?

Let's do all three. We have to avenge last week. I know it's asking a lot to go for three upsets, but if Jason Myers, and that name should not be on the tip of my tongue, but five days later, I'm still losing sleep on the way the Seahawks lost that game, cost us a huge underdog parlay.

We have to get back in the saddle. We got to do all three. Let's do a combination of all three. Okay. Pat's Lions is plus 670. Pat Steelers was plus 670, but on FanDuel, they're going to boost this for us. The underdog parlay of the week, they're going to boost it. It's going to be at least eight to one. Okay. I'm going to give us eight to one. It might even be a tad higher if you go on FanDuel.

Pat Steelers, both to win. Eight to one odds. How do you not do that? Do they call it the Bill Simmons They call it the ringers underdog parlay of the week Yes! We made it! We made it! Good times! And then Steelers-Lions plus 586 So we're going to look at those three

Alright, before we do the million dollar picks What's your appetite for Going big on Bengals minus 500? What do you want to do? What do you think? Do you want to really go for it? Why don't you just say this is the one time all year, but we're just going all in. This is maybe like a psychological thing about who I am as a part. I'm asking if we bet and we lose, we're in a hole and I'm, it's going to be a miserable, we're chasing our tail the rest of the year, right? So the answer would be Bucks, Bills, Bengals minus 111. I think I feel the best about. I do. And I don't want the listeners or you to think I'm any less of a man. I just can't

stomach the thought of last second Jets field goal and all of a sudden we're down $3 million. What do you think about Bengals betting them straight up, teasing it down a little bit to minus 9.5, putting minus 130 odds on that? At what cost? I'm saying just like 260 to win 200K on the Bengals. I think they can win by 10 points, yes. Okay. All right. So we'll add that.

And did you want to, did you want to do Pat's first half or Pat's for the game with the plus four and a half? I would rather do Pat's for the game. Let's go for the game. I think that's more fun.

I respect Sharpe's analysis. It's probably the smarter play, but we're having fun here. Yeah. Okay. All right, Kyle, turn the camera on. Million dollar picks. Week eight, we're up 1.565 million for the season, licking our wounds after the Chiefs treated us rudely last week. Rudely. Chiefs and Seahawks, they might as well

never, they might not look at me again. I'm disgusted with both teams. Chiefs cost us almost $600,000 by just not showing up. And then the Seahawks kicker, Jason Myers, kisser and kicker. We know your name, Jason. Jason kissed away about $600,000 of underdog parlay money that we would have won last week, too. So that hurt. He's kind of the reverse Greg Bishop. Greg Butler?

What's his name? Greg Joseph. Greg Joseph. Vikings kicker, yes. The Minnesota kicker. Greg Bishop, I believe, the reverse Greg Bishop. Greg Butler. What's his name? Greg Joseph. Vikings kicker. The Minnesota kicker. Greg Bishop, I believe, is a sports writer. Great point. Sorry, Greg.

Million dollar picks for week eight. Eight. We're putting $777,000 to win $700,000. Minus 111 odds. Bucks will beat the Saints. Bills will beat the Dolphins. The Bengals will beat the Jets. All three teams just have to win.

That's it. Just got no major upsets and we're good. And we're back on the high life again. We've had trouble with the $200,000 bet. So I'm going to up it a tiny bit. We're going to do, we're going to bet more. We're going to bet more. 200 or do you want to bet less? I think less would be the guidance I would give, but again, I'm conservative. You live on the wild side.

You're kind of Rabbi Schrager sometimes with this stuff. We're going to do, we're going to do, We're going to do... We'll keep it at 200. Maybe we can turn around. 200K on the Pats plus 4.5 against the Chargers. They absolutely have a chance to win. I think they can win. I think they could be 4-4 after this game

and I would be feeling good. We're also going to do 260,000 to win 200 minus 130 outs. The Bengals brought down a minus $9.5 to beat the Jets. They beat the Jets by $10,000. We win. Love it. All right. Underdog parlay. We're doing the same formula

as last week. $333,000 parlays. First one. Pats-Lyons. Both have to win. Pats are at Los Angeles against the Chargers with $50,000 Boston fans. The Lions putting themselves on the map. First win of the year.

Let's go. Against the Eagles. At home in Detroit. Come on. In what could be the last Eagles game before it's Minshew Mania in Philly. Plus 670. We're grabbing that.

We are also grabbing the Steelers-Lyons. Steelers have to win in Cleveland. Lions in Philly, plus 586. And then, a special little FanDuel boost for this one. Pat Steelers is plus 670. They're going to boost it.

We're going to give ourselves 8-1 odds on this. The boost, when they finally finalize it on Thursday night, might even be a tad higher than that, but it'll at least be 8-1. We this. The boost when they finally finalize it on Thursday night might even be a tad higher than that, but it will at least be 8-1. We'll give ourselves plus 800. So those are our three parlays.

And those are the million-dollar picks. What do you feel the best about out of those? I love our Bengals 9.5. I think that is a home run. And Bill, I feel like this week, after I look at it all, and it's been... I don't think we're losing any of these.

I feel tremendous about this week. We haven't swept it yet. We had our great run week 17 in the playoffs. We're sweeping bets left, right? We haven't had a sweep yet. I'm feeling it this week. The Million Dollar Picks for week eight. Peter Schrager, pleasure as always.

You're the man. Let's go. All right, thanks to Kyle Mann. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Thanks to nephew Kyle, Kyle Creighton, for producing this podcast. If you see him on Sunday at the Pats Chargers game, hug him, buy him drinks, do whatever you need to do. He's a national treasure.

I will see you on Sunday on this feed, breaking down week eight, Halloween, my favorite day of the year. See you then.