The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Hot Takes, OKC’s Red Flag, and Giannis vs. Father Time With Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House

Episode Date: March 26, 2026

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Kirk Goldsberry to talk about how vulnerable the OKC Thunder are after their loss to the Celtics before Joe House joins for some quick NBA takes (3:38). Then, they discuss whether there are enough historical signs to indicate that teams shouldn't trade for Giannis at this point in his career (59:51). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Kirk Goldsberry and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat and Eduardo Ocampo Sam’s Club | Join The Club of Yes And Learn More at https://linkedin.com/simmonsbill The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by Sam's Club. we are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a rewatchable as on Monday night. As part of CR month, we did The Nice Guys. We have LA Confidential coming next Monday. Speaking of movies, I was also on the big picture this week. They did a 1988 movie draft.

Sean Amanda, CR, myself. We drafted all the best 1988 88 movies. Great, phenomenal year. Die hard, big, midnight run. So it was kind of a bloodbath. But I had a good time. I'd have been on that one in a while.

So you can check that out. That's on Netflix as well. this podcast, if you forgot, was on Netflix. We're going to be live on Sunday on Netflix. I think after Nick's Thunder, so it'll probably be 7 o'clock PT range on Netflix. And then if you're not tired of me by that point, April 8th, Wednesday night,

San Francisco, yeah, the rewatchables. We've never been in San Francisco. We've been talking about it for a while. We're talking about could we go to Seattle? maybe San Francisco. We're going to San Francisco. I am bringing CR with me. I am bringing Van Lath and Mallory Rubin with me. And we're going to be at the ACT's Tony Rembey Theater on Wednesday, April. Tickets will go on sale Wednesday, April 1st at 10 a.m. Pacific.

All you have to do is go to the ringer.com slash events for more information. And I'll tell you what movie we're doing next week, but you will definitely enjoy it. and there's going to be, there's going to be laughs. There's going to be inappropriate stuff. I can't wait. So San Francisco, I can't believe this has never happened, but it's happening. It's the least we can do after disappointing Warriors season. So there you go.

Coming up on this podcast, Kurt Goldsbair and I are going to talk about the NBA and all the stuff that went on last night and some subplots as we had toward the end of the season. We brought in Joe House to join us for the tail end of that. And then we had this big longevity project we wanted to talk about with Janus. And this thing I asked Kirk to do research on. And the thesis is basically, are there historical signs that you should not trade for Janus? Pretty fascinating stuff.

We're not saying, we're not advocating one way or the other. It is just, hey, there's some stuff going on here that we should really seriously discuss. So that is the podcast. We're taking a break. We're going to bring in our friends from Pearl Jam and then Kirk Goldsberg. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by Sam's Club. It is that time of the year when you just got to get in your car and go somewhere. I've done that plenty of times of my life.

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slash yes and for details. All right, we are recording this. It is a little past 10 o'clock, AM, Pacific Time. You're going to do a bunch of basketball. It's a great sports weekend. Joe House is going to join us in a little bit with Kirk Goldsbury.

I want to talk about OKC, Boston, all-MBA, Detroit, Atlanta, Houston, Minnesota, a bunch of stuff we saw last night, just because I thought big picture, it got my brain turning on some stuff. OKC, Boston, there was some stuff with OKC that I thought,

you know, I don't want to say I'm concerned about a team that's potentially going to win 140 games in two years and won the title last year. There's a too many guys thing with them that I'm going to be really interested to see how it resolves. I am a big believer in the too many guys theory

in that in the playoffs especially, you can get away winning a title with seven, you really need eight. Nine is fine, but it's probably around eight. They have 11. And I thought last night, one of the reasons they seemed a little disjointed was because all their guys are back. Right.

And you have like McCain, Joe, Wallace, you have all these guys coming off the bench and you just don't need 11 guys. When you watch them, what are you looking at like when you're projecting them for May June? It's just Isaiah Joe's out, McCain's out. Like where do we land ultimately? And what's their crunch time five is the other question for me. Yeah.

The crunch time five and even their starting five is a fair question. Last night, I thought there was a really big red flag with them in a specific way as we look forward into the playoffs bill. And that was J. Dub, who is clearly their number two offensive weapon. Yeah. And they are very deep. But I think one of the reasons they didn't win last night is because J. Dub wasn't simply at the level we expect him to be at.

I think in the playoffs last year, he played 35. minutes was 21, six, and five, and had like 40 point outbursts and was the best player in the game and some playoff wins. And the defense, too. Yeah, and he was two at nine last night. Yeah. And that's just not going to get it done. So I wouldn't say he's like the fully they're pippin, but in an NBA playoffs, it's very

unforgiving in the West, you need a clear number two. And I think one of the things with too many guys thing is like, okay, we have AJ Mitchell and McCain. and that's a really nice story. But they're filling in for the shots that I would expect J. Dubb to be taking and making and putting pressure on the defense in a really different way than Shea does.

So for me, it's not just a too many guys thing. It's too many guys trying to fill in for a clear void where Jalen Williams used to be. Right. And they're looking at, can we ramp him up over the next month and get him back to where he was last year? The playoffs is a little more forgiving for them because they're basically going to be playing

probably the clippers right could be the Warriors like who knows like whatever they'll be able Phoenix would probably be the friskiest they could play but I assume Phoenix is going to be the seven seed with the Williams piece and this happened in the OKC Boston game too

which Tatum didn't play in OKC and then they both played last night I was surprised how physically, I don't want to say overwhelming, but confident Boston was with the size advantages they had. And this is two straight games now with Jalen really being able to attack Dort.

And nobody really goes at Dort like that. You know, like really like being able to bang him and have him going backwards instead of forwards. And then, you know, and then when you have Tatum too, who I thought the second quarter was his best stretch. of the of the year. And in general, his game was really good. And that was the best Tatum and Brown together game. But the wings they had and the size they had, I thought was a real problem for

OKC. And I thought the same thing you did. Well, if Jalen Williams is last year's Jaylon Williams, now that's somebody to throw on one of those guys. Right. And you can do Dorda on the other side. But it was a, it was a rare game where I thought OKC seems small. And I didn't think Chet was good, but I just felt like they felt a little undersized against the Celtics because SGA was really good. I mean, he, you know, he was magnificent. He was 10 to 12. He couldn't have been more efficient offensively. He's getting the shots he wanted or getting to the free throw line and they still lost by double figures.

So. Because there was nobody else behind him. Right. I don't want to over, but that's one of those games. And you do all the, you always do the season ticket guy thing. It's like you circle that game. Oh my God. OK, see comes to Boston once.

They're the champs. We're going to see where we're at. Tatum's back. They're finally fully healthy. that was a bigger than a normal regular season game. I think that's fair to say. And Jalen Brown, oh my God. Okay, so there were three plays, I remember,

one where he took Dort on the right baseline and just hammered it down. Then he had Caruso in the high post, and he just spun away and then hammered it on. I forget who was coming over to help on the RIMP protect there. And then he got SGA with his own medicine where he had the footwork, the push off, the up, it got him in the air, and then draws the contact. And even SGA had to smile afterwards.

But they had no answers for Jalen Brown. Like this is the best defense in the league over the last two years, Bill. And Jalen took everything they threw at him and just was the best player I thought in the game. That would be my question to you. Do you feel like Jalen Brown was the best player in that game last night?

SGA was really good. I mean, I just thought Jailen did what he's done over and over again this season is he's matched the other best player in the game. And this is why there's, I want to talk about him a little later, but this is why I think there's a really strong first team all-N-B-A case for him now.

He's just been really consistent in these games. And I thought what was interesting about last night, OKC wanted the game. They had 12 in a row. They approached it, like, we're going to kick these guys ass. They came out. They were up eight, nine, ten,

really for the first quarter of the game. They kind of went gimmicky in the first, quarter, which I thought was another kind of weird sign for them. They basically said, we're going to leave Hauser open. They're not going to be expecting this. It's like, why don't you just guard the Celtics straight up? Like, you have the best defense in the league or the second best. I think for the Celtics, the big picture encouraging thing is that they've, they've now played San Antonio and O KC and have just gone at them and really gone toe to toe with them athletically. And I think had a lot of confidence with them. I wonder the type of teams that they've

struggled with are teams that play with a ton of pace, like Minnesota on Sunday without Edwards, just going up and down. The Celtics want to play a little more deliberately, and so does OKC. So those types of teams are really good matchups. I think the Knicks will potentially fall into that. But last night, you could see the ceiling of the Celtics team, I think, if Tatum can look like Tatum. Here, that great block. But just in general, like, they're going to be able to go to toe to toe with these teams. They're a guard short, I think, is the thing. Like I kind of wish they had somebody like McCain.

They don't have a lot of leeway with going small or if White or Pritchard has a bad game. You could see. Somebody like Anthony Simons. Somebody like Anthony Simons. Well, the most interesting, I think single most interesting playoff lineup, Rinkle.

And they did it twice yesterday for a little burst. And in the second quarter, it really helped them. And they've experimented with it half of the games. is Tatum at the 5. Right. Where I think it's good for him because he doesn't have to move around it much.

He can kind of save his legs, but the rebounding is there. And I think it's so nice to have the rebounding back. But when they go a little smaller with him with shooting, and then it kind of fucks up the other team's center too because now he can take the center outside or he can go in, he can defend. And I wonder if that's going to be the key wrinkle.

I don't know how much Garza we're going to get in the playoffs maybe to put it in the matchup. Kate is going to have free throw, you know, foul, foul stuff. And I wonder if that's like the ultimate destiny of this team against certain matchups. Tatum, Brown, a shooter, white and Pritchard. And like it could be Shireman one night. It could be Hauser, it could be Hugo, whatever. But I do wonder if that's the ultimate destiny of them in huge, huge games.

They have Vucovich. Hopefully the hand gets right. And that's another huge piece of their depth in a way they can, can throw a different front court look at an opponent with a stretch five. I think that was the plan here. And we haven't really seen that as much as I'd like to heading into the playoffs. Kate has been absolutely magnificent, as is all of that depth that we've talked about so many times on your show.

But it's really cool to see Tatum. You know, my favorite Tatum play last night was he sort of had, I think, McCain isolated. I think O'KC was playing zone. And he had him isolated on the right corner. And it looked like he's going to break him down and go, attack, but instead he threw a huge skip pass. Oh, to Brown in the corner. Yeah, that was great.

It was great. And it was just, to me, it epitomized that, hey, we still have these two guys. And if you're right, and I know we'll talk about this later, where Jalen Brown's season lands on the awards list, two of the top seven, eight, nine guys in the league when they're both playing really well. That's that's something. And that was the first line in my notes after last night's game is like this, this game really reestablished the Boston Celtics as the best team at least. least in the Eastern Conference. And if you look at Fandul or anywhere you look, it's starting to be reflected in the odds to come out of the Eastern Conference. Boston is clearly the favorite now to win the East. I know you don't want to jinx anything. And then if you look at the records,

which you and I both love to do since January 1st, they have the best record in the East since then. So all signs are pointing to sort of the dream outcome of this Tatum return that we've been talking about for the whole year. It's all clicked, and I think they can win the East. Sunday night was a little scary because they look bad at that Minnesota game. But from everything I heard, the travel stuff was really like once in a decade crazy. Like they were just on a runway in Memphis for seven hours. Too bad Scott Foster wasn't there. Oh, my God. And I think, I just think it, that's why they looked like they didn't have legs on that Sunday game. And the Tatum, the offensive stuff with him and the rating that the team had the first eight games, and it just felt, it just felt clumsy.

And yesterday was the first game. I really felt like this, this feels like we're back now. Where Jaylen is still the alpha in a lot of ways, but Tatum has, they can carve out enough stretches. For OKC, like, if they don't, I agree with you, if they don't get J-dub back the way he was last year, I think they're really vulnerable against San Antonio. I think San Antonio could absolutely beat them. Watching OK, see, last night was the first,

because I'm in the camp of you got to get punched in the playoffs before you can actually win in the playoffs. You got paste your own blood. I just feel like the league has shown us that for the last 70 years. Maybe not. Maybe when you have a 7 foot 7 freak and a bunch of pit bulls around him, maybe that's not going to matter. And if J-Dub is not J-Dub, I do think San Antonio should have a lot of confidence in

that series. Yeah, they will. I'm not sure they deserve it, but it's that typical young man's confidence that I think was epitomized by Victor Wembeyanama at the press conference where he's talking about why he's the MVP and he's just talking straight trash about the thunder and how he beat. They're going to be confident. Yeah. Stefan Castle is confidence in human form. I think whether they deserve to be that confident is a different question. Well, the record for February and March would say they deserve to be that confident. I mean, they've been the best team in the league for two months now. Yeah, 22 and one in their last 23 Wembe games.

So they deserve to be confident. As much of the Spurs Homer as I am, the Thunder deserve to be the Western Conference favorites. They deserve to be the title favorites at this phase to me. But I think what's changed, Bill, since December, is that they look a lot more beatable than they did when we were talking about this, when they were 24 and 1

or whatever they were to start the season. I think they've fallen a little bit. I think the biggest questions about J-dub, the health, the Hartenstein. Some of the three-point shooting, too, because the Celtics were doing that last night. I thought Maz was great last night, but he did that little adjustment

where they basically played a pseudo zone, shaded SGA, so he didn't have the same kind of angles he had, and they were really putting pressure on the other shooters. And that's why, like, If you're not playing Isaiah Joe, and then you're just basically pulling up the bench and being like, can you make some threes for us when he's ice cold and hasn't played an hour and a half? That's why that 11 person thing is so interesting.

It works for the regular season. But when you're actually in a playoff series and you're down to one in a series and you're on the road in game four, like I want to know who my seven guys are at that point, you know? It's a great point. And I think, you know, even Dort made five a nine last night. And that was huge for the Thunder. In a world where Dort, who has come back to Earth as a three-point shooter, is one of the sort of nerdyer subplots of the Thunder season,

in a world where he's 33%, and J. Dub is at 30%. That team's a lot easier to guard. Yeah. It's a lot easier to help on SGA once we're talking about Caruso, old school Dort not making threes, some kind of limited J-dub. the defensive game plan against the thunder is a lot more confident in a world where they can't just punish you

with shooters on the edge. 12 for 37 last night and the rebounding, Celtics Rayb without rebound them too. So we'll see. Hold the J-Lint thought because I want to come back with that. But I do feel like O'KC feels more vulnerable than they did.

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So advertise on LinkedIn. Spent $250. Get a $250 credit. Just go to LinkedIn.com slash Simmons bill, terms and conditions apply. I have a couple quick takes for you.

Yes, sir. I'm going to whip at you. Hot takes. You can rank these on a scale of 1 to 10. Okay. Cade's injury was the best thing that could have happened in Detroit.

That is a 10. Okay. Because I want to see him when he's back. If he's back in 100%, I think it is good. I'm saying that assuming he comes back 100%. Okay. Then I think that's a great take. And I think like, Dennis Jenkins is cool, man. I love this kid's game. I love this to see that, that they're staying in games, if not winning games with him running the offense.

And I do think, Bill, that's a huge part of the playoffs is having that secondary force on the bench. And I think it has given them an opportunity. Duncan Robinson is making plays that I wouldn't make, they've all been sort of forced to promote their level of offense in the absence of Cade Cunningham in a way that I think will, if it all lands perfectly, make them a much more complete offensive team in the playoffs. So that's why I phrased it that way. Okay. We got to get that guy back though, man.

We got to get Cater back. I just assume he's coming back. That's why I put it that way. But what it did for Jenkins, this was a team that felt so Cade-centric. Two guys really benefited from him not being there. Duren, I think, has gone up a level. And I already had him as an all-MBA guy. Now it's like, can he make second team on my ballot?

Like, I had a third team. Did you see him shut down Luca for the last shot the other night? Oh, yeah. It was, I had somebody at the Lakers say, that's the best somebody's guarded Luca on the edge all year long. And it's a 6-11 monster. It was crazy. The case for him is very similar to the case for Jaylin for first.

team. It's the consistency and the kind of fuck you energy he brings game to game that doesn't change no matter what night you're watching the Pistons. That guy is just an absolute bad. And it's been that case from game one this year. He's intimidating. He's he's really competitive. He'll do anything that, you know, whatever it'll take to win the game, he's going to do it. I think he's really overpowered some teams over the course of the year. I thought he was, was really good last night. I mean, Detroit, Atlanta, okay, C, Boston same time.

That was about as good as it gets. But I think the Jenkins piece of this, he was cool as a bench guy. They had some guys. He was like, Jayvante Green. He seems pretty good. Jenkins seems pretty good.

He's like run the team and run crunch time plays and gotten good shots. And now I feel like in the playoffs, that's a legitimate six-man guy. That's somebody who could play with Cade in the last five minutes. I didn't feel that way three weeks ago.

So that's why I phrased the Cade thing that way. I kept thinking, man, Houston could use this guy. He's that good. Like, he could start for NBA teams. I wasn't saying that about it. He had a big mid-ranger last night. They tried to claw back in that game just didn't have it at the end. But yeah, I've been really impressed with him,

and to your earlier point, without that injury to Cade. We don't see that. He doesn't develop that. The team doesn't get that confidence with him in the fold. The two best guys that don't play as much as they could and would make me really wonder, like, from a free agency standpoint, what they're worth. Legler was on A.J. Mitchell or early. Like, could this guy just be the best guard on a real team? And I actually agree. I was even scared of him last night against the Celtics. I was like, shit, I hope they don't run more plays for A.J. Mitchell. And then Jenkins now, I think, has proven that maybe he could run a team. Like, he's doing this over and over again. Atlanta. last night who's been playing fantastic. And I thought he did a good job with them.

That leads to my next take. Atlanta is real enough to make you believe, but not real enough that you won't regret believing in them. That's not a hot take. I'm going to give it a three. I believe in them. Again, the way I look at the game, this stretch is a analytically very impressive

for a sustained amount of time now. Yeah. And then B, if you talk to people around that team, Bill, the vibes are immaculate. There are people saying stuff like, we haven't had a locker room like this in decades. I wonder what changed. I wonder what it was. I wonder what happened. We'll ask Joe House later what it could be.

But I think the key thing is they've not only had this major sort of vibe renovation, but they play so hard and so well for each other on defense. This is a great defense, potentially the best defense in the east, not named Detroit. And then Jalen Johnson's allowed to be more free, Nikiel Alexander Walker. And they love Dyson Daniels. He's a weird guy. Jock Laundale. Like, they've put something together here that I wouldn't want to see in the first round.

Where I'll go to you is Bill. By the way, we should mention 14 and 1 in their last 15 second in net rating plus 14.4. What were going to ask me? Yeah, they've moved up to the five seed, and this is what I'm going to ask you. Five, four, this Hawks team versus that Cleveland Cavaliers team at the four, who you're picking? So you think that you're assuming they can jump? Oh, yeah, right now they are. They're tied with Toronto.

They made it to the five. They have the tiebreaker. So if you want to get super nerdy, Toronto is the tiebreaker. But these are two trains going different speeds right now. And I like that Atlanta's going to land at the five if I had to guess. So if I'm Cleveland, I can't believe. we've this played out this way, where the whole time you're like,

this is great, we get to play Toronto, we're going to kill them. And now all of a sudden, this Atlanta team comes shot out of a cannon. Right. Here's why I don't totally believe in Atlanta yet. As good as they've been, and I agree with you on the chemistry,

and the team actually makes sense. Like, when you watch them, the pieces fit together, the bench I actually kind of like, me moving, getting rid of tray and moving Rich Chichet out of a real, minutes basically just change their season plus McCollum the problem so when you get in a playoff series what if you watch carefully Atlanta at the end of these games McCollum McCollum is their guy at

the end of games right a lot of CJ McCallum a lot of CJ now we like CJ yeah CJ's had a really good career I'm a fan but now I'm going to playoff series and I'm in two point games with three four minutes left and now I have C.J. McCollum versus Donovan Mitchell do I I like my chances. Now I have him against Jalen Brunson. I have him against Jalen and Jason. You know, like I just, this is the problem at the playoffs.

If this is your guy and he has to match the best guy in the other team, UFC, J. McCollum in that spot. And that's what makes me nervous about them. Last night, I think he had 11 or 12 straight points down the stretch for them. Nobody else could do anything against Detroit. And now he made the shots that won the game. But yeah, I found myself wondering the same thing. Is this really what we should expect from CJ in the playoffs is that can you get out of round one if you're having hero ball with C.J. McCollum.

Could you take him out just put, be like, look, we're taking him out, putting a bigger defender on him. As much as I love Jalen Johnson, and I don't know if he's second team or third team for me, but he's going to be on an all NBA team. Yeah. There's still an end of the game stuff with him that I think we're two years away from, right? Completely fair, dude. Yeah, he is majestic in the open. He is a beautiful basketball player, but we have yet to see, all right, dude, go get it done and crunch time against a good defender. We're in the early stages of him.

But Atlanta, this is real. The home games there are going to be raucous. They have great playoff home crowds for some reason. And I think they really like this team. So that's one. Next take, Jamal Murray is a second team NBA guy. I haven't checked in on my exact second team in a minute. I know he started Red Hot.

He has had the season we've all been waiting for him to have in the regular season. I'll throw that back to you. I don't know if that's a hot take. Do you want to make the case one way or the other? Yeah, so you would have to basically, you would have, I'm going down to my list. So you would have to, uh, if you assume SGA, Wembe, Luca, Yokhikish, and Jalen is the top five, right? And Mitchell may be in the Jalen spot, depending on how to. how we want to go. I don't know if we're going to get Cade back in time.

It's going to be five of the last 10 games, right? Yeah. I know it does sound like he's 100% close yet. But even if he does come back, Jalen might have taken his spot regardless. Like when you think Jalen's going to be 70 plus games on a team that almost has the same record, etc. There's seven guys for that second team that I have. Cade, Mitchell, Jalen Johnson, Jamal Murray. I have Duren because I still want to vote for centers. I can. I still would like to preserve some semblance of the history of the league and not just vote for the top 15 guys. And then Kauai and Ant. Kauai's at 57 games. He can only miss two more ants at 58. And I think those are the seven in some order. Kauai's going to make this really hard

if he gets to 65 because it's going to be really hard not to have him on a team on the second team. Oh, at least. Yeah, by some metrics, he's a first team all-MBA performer this year. But he's got to get to 65. And I said this to Zach the other day. It's like, this is so stupid. You know, the biggest thing we're watching for all NBA over the last week of the season isn't like the game Jaylen had last night. It's who's going to fill up the games played column and basketball reference to 65. Yeah. Well, the players did allow it. So my guess is Duren probably falls to third team unless a couple of these guys missed a minimum. But to me, I would feel great about putting him on a second team

because I think he's been the third best center in the league beyond Wembe and Yokic. I think he's the second most important reason that team's going to be the one seed. And he's been durable and consistent and really gives a shit night after night after night, which I just don't think we value enough with this stuff.

Like Jalen just showing up over and over again. Dern just showing up over and over again is a lot easier than guys that can just basically take some time off here and there and just get to like 66 games. I don't know. Yeah, the other one that I, the wild card for 13 for me is Castle. But I want to see.

You know, the best thing about this is we have as much time as possible until we don't have to decide now. Okay, next take. Houston, the body language doctor is just horrified. it's bad. This is bad. First of all, it's the most disconnected of all the playoff teams. There's reminiscent vibes of Phoenix last year in that game we saw in person.

There's a play last night where they fuck up at the end of regulation. And Schengoon has to come down and he makes this absolutely insane block to save the game on Randall. And then hits his face on the floor and his lips bleeding. And if you want, I, I, I couldn't believe it. I rewound it. I was like, oh, man, the rockets are going to run over him, right? Nope. Reed Shepherd comes over.

Kind of like gives him a nice job, buddy. Like, it's the end of the first quarter or something. Durant doesn't even acknowledge them, really. And nobody else in the Rockets comes over and Shungoon just walks back. This was like, you're a national TV. This was like one of the best places of Shangoon's career. It was insane. I thought he was going to get hurt.

And that team is just so, so not on the same. same page that it was kind of like, yeah, good, good job way to go. And then at the end of the game, when they screwed up again on the inbounds, and you could just see Schengoon standing near the basket like this, which you're, you know, kept it for an extra three seconds. I don't like the vibes. Something's really wrong with the rockets. Specifically, the offense. So like since January 1st, I'm sort of stealing Zach's point with you guys on Sunday. You know, they've ranked 22nd in the NBA in offense for half the season, Bill. Right.

But just to put that in context, there's 10 teams that aren't trying to win, you know, and there's a team like Memphis who's 9 and 30 in that time that has a more efficient offense than the team with Kevin fucking Duran on it. Like, what is going on here? How do the Memphis Grizzlies have a better offense than the Houston Rockets for essentially this second half of the season? And the vibes are off. Off is like a compliment.

The vibes are horrible. So they're 18th in their last 25 offensive rating. Yeah, it's not a small sample at this point. And it's the clogged toilet offense personified, which we had in Boston and 22. But I just can't believe how lazy the offense is. But you have Shingoon who should be impossible to guard for some bigs. You have Durant, who is impossible to guard for virtually. anybody. You have Amman Thompson, who's one of the sort of attacking, driving players. You have

Reed Shepard. There should be a top 15 offense in there. Am I right? So they don't have offensive rebound anymore with Adams gone. They don't have a point guard because Shepard just gets yanked in and out depending on how EMA is feeling that day. I think EMA, I think this has been one of the worst coaching jobs of the year. I don't see any adjustments late. The vibes are awful. I don't think he really likes the team that much. And if you want to go full conspiracy on it, they have not looked the same since the All-Star Break

and all the KD Burner stuff, whether that was true or not true, did not look the same and they don't seem connected at all. Yeah, it crossed my mind too, yeah. Every time I bring this up on a pod or when I had my calling back in the day, and it's like, this, something looks off. And then I remember doing this with the Clippers

when I go to the Quipper games. It's like, these guys don't seem like they like each other. And then they would get mad and defensive. And then years passed. It's like, yeah, we didn't really like each other. Yeah, it was really not great vibes there. It's like, yeah, we could see. It's basketball.

It's the most naked of all the sports we have. And this Houston, the vibes are off. They just are. And everyone wants to play them in the playoffs. Everybody. Nobody wants to play Minnesota. Nobody wants to play Luca and the Lakers. You want to play Houston.

And I do wonder, like, are we going to have jockeying, you know, like, if the Lakers in Denver, if you had a chance to play Houston in the sixth seed, are we going to have Denver just going all out trying to get the three seed being like, we got to try to play Houston versus like other years where we've seen teams go backwards and try to like tank the last two games. I think it's going to be the opposite. If I'm Denver, I'm like going full force for the three seed. Yeah, I think the three seat is very powerful there.

Plus you avoid OKC in round two. And again, as much as I want to be a Spurs Homer, that's a good deal. So getting to three and playing Houston at the six, right now, L.A. is strongly, I would say strongly in position to hold the three seed. But man, I would also give us something like a LeBron KD playoff series, which would be electric in the first round. But I would not feel good about Houston's offense keeping up with the smoke show that is the L.A. Lakers offense at the stage. Or Houston's chemistry. Yeah, Houston. So the easy games they have left. They have Memphis. This is Houston. They have Milwaukee. They have Utah.

They have the Golden State corpses. Memphis again. So it's not like they're going to fall back to Phoenix. Denver, on the other hand, they have Utah and Golden State as their next two. They have Utah again. San Antonio, Portland, Memphis, OKC, who might not care at that point

because they might have it locked up. And San Antonio, who might not care, because I'll have the two seed locked up. So there's a chance they could basically run the slate. Joe House is here. He has no idea what we're talking about. Hey, Joe.

How's- Hi, Kirk. We're talking about the vibes on Houston and how this is not the good ship lollipop. Did you notice it last night on the television set? Buddy, I've been noticing it for a minute now, and you and I have been trying to play close attention to this Houston team. I'll put it in this kind of context, in the first place, you will recall, as the trade deadline approached, their regular season win

total was sitting at like 53 and a half. And I said, if Houston doesn't do anything at the trade deadline, then I am hammering that under. I am taking some portion of the mortgage and putting it on the under for this Houston team. And it's largely because of something that we smelled out in the first half of the season. This was before the calendar flipped into 2026. they have fourth quarter scoring problems. And it looked like in the early season, we were wondering to ourselves in our text thread and otherwise, are they experimenting?

Is there a reason that Reed Shepard isn't on the floor in the fourth quarter of these games getting touches? Is there a reason they're running offense through Sangoon and then trying to get Durant to bail them out? Well, all of those things are still staring us right in the face, and it's a failure. At this point in the season, we have enough of a sample size.

This version of the Houston Rockets is not a serious team, not in this West the way that it's configured with the teams that are rounding into form. KG, you know this, this Lakers team especially. I mean, the West is too much. And this Houston, it's a bummer that Stephen Adams got hurt. They never came up with a replacement for the three-point shooting absence of Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green and FV who got hurt. at the beginning, you know, before the season even started.

And here we are, they are a first round exit candidate, in my humble opinion. Well, on top of it, the team most likely to all go to dinner together, or least likely. When was last time you think the team all got together and had stakes? Send us pictures if that actually happened. So, House, it sounds like you would be wagering. Fendell has this. They have those, what is it, where we can bet on when the team gets bounced in the playoffs? Oh, right. Elimination stage or something like that?

Yeah. So it basically, it sounds like you would bet on, so it would be team to advance to the Western semifinals. You would not be betting on Houston plus 160s, but that's what it sounds like. No, and that tells you something that it's, you know, the implied probability of that is not in favor of them advancing. All right. We're going to take a break and we're going to talk. I have a bunch of history stuff. Kirk and I have worked on some of it. House doesn't know anything we have coming. We're just going to throw it at him in one second. There's some incredible lineups in the NBA right now,

but it's not just the individual players that deserve the hype. Sometimes it's the unexpected player combinations. Those are the ones that truly blow you away. So we're diving into some of my favorite player combos in top rotations. Good name. A special segment brought to you by Domino's, whose best deal ever lets you combine any pizza with any topping for $9.99, pure synergy. So my favorite lineup lately in the NBA, and the Celtics did this recently against Oklahoma

City. They played Jason Tatum as the quote-unquote center, but basically the five where they had him and Jaylen out there at the same time with a shooter. It could have been Shireman. It could have been Hauser. And then White and Pritchard. And it's a little small ball, but not really, because Tatum and Brown both rebound and Tatum can protect the rim a little bit. And when you have shooting everywhere, it's just is a crazy look where you have five guys who can make threes, you can slash, and you can still somehow protect the rim. So that's my most intriguing lineup heading in the playoffs. There's some pretty tasty lineups out there in general.

But when we're talking topping combos, Domino's best ever top of the week, order any pizza with any topping for $9.99. an extra cheese pepperoni, well-done guy. That's it. I'm a simple man. Extra cheese, pepperoni. I'm good. Get Domino's best deal ever today, and you can get an extra cheese and pepperoni. Price is higher in some locations. Select this online only offer from February 23 until April 6th. Size availability varies by crust type max, seven toppings, six for New York style and pancrest. Stuffcrest extra excludes Excel and specialty pizzas. Minimum purchase required for delivery with prices, participation, delivery area, and charges may vary.

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Should we be disappointed in Alman Thompson where we are career-wise? House made a face. Why do you say 100%, Kirk? I say because I look at the numbers. I love Alman Thompson. I think he still has all-MBA potential. But the reason specifically Bill Simmons is that he is modeling like an inferior version of himself just compared to last year in the exact phase of his career.

where he's supposed to be blossoming into an all-star and an all-N-B-A talent, he's actually going the other way, according to all the advanced stuff. If you want to bring it back to specific things, he's arguably the worst shooter in the NBA right now. He has the worst jump shooting efficiency and the worst shot-making impact in the entire NBA. So he needs to become a shooter. Until then, defenses will be able to defend him very effectively.

Yeah. And I thought that was going to happen this year. And in fact, he's gotten worse. The eye test is backing that up for me. I thought they were really giving him a chance to basically be like, maybe you could be our point card. They've given up on that. And it seems like he's lost the offensive confidence house.

I think house is nodding. So it seems like he agrees. Do you want a stat? Do you want a stat on it? Yeah, give us a stat. Yeah. So 216 guys have taken, at least 200 jumpers this year.

He ranks 216th by a Harris County Mile, I would say. He is, you know, I look at that guy. For years, that's been of something I looked at. I don't want him to be there. I'm not happy about this. But to Joe House's point, it's like this dude should be an all-MBA guy in the next few years, but that's the specific thing he's got to fix. So let me ask a question because this was the representative.

reputation coming into the NBA, the open question around the Thompson twins, around both of them. Will they be able to knock down that open jumper that the NBA reveals? Their athleticism gives them that space, that room. Is it fair to be, I mean, the number is the number. 216 out of 216 is pretty compelling. But is it time? Is it fair? The circumstances under which he's being ass to kind of run this offense. He's not ready for it. And it's apparent. And he would be so well served, much better served

in a version of the offense that existed last season, in a version of the offense that had Stephen Adams in a version of the offense with AVV, FVVV. God, I'll get that right at some point. Running point is it, I mean, he's taking the shots, but he's not ready. That's the way that it feels to me.

Well, if you just switched him with his brother in Detroit, is he in a better situation? Yes. Yeah. Right. It's a good way to look at it. Next topic, quick. MVP, so it's Thursday, still morning Pacific time. Shea's down to minus 700 now.

Wembe's plus 650 and Luca's at 50 to 1. If San Antonio passes OKC and gets the one seed, is there now a Wemby case for you? Because I'm not even prepared to consider it unless they're the one seed. If they're the one seed, I'm prepared to consider it. So, House, would that change anything in your brain about the MVP and where you're landing? So I love that sort of phrasing of it. Will we consider it?

Right now, we're not considering it, but we would consider it if they achieve the one seed. I think that's exactly the right way to set it up. Two back from OKC. And it's desirable to be the one seed in this West, for sure. You don't want to mess with what the two, three is going to produce. going into the second round. But the answer to me is no still. It's still SGA to me.

That's why I feel as well. That's why, hey, guess what? We have 82 games to decide, not 70 and not 50, right? Kirk, if Wembe gets the one seed, does that change it? Yeah, I'll already take Wemby's case, just as the resident Spurs guy. Let me make the case. Do it. The most impactful player in the NBA right now is very,

Victor Webenyama. And he is right. Defense is half the game. And any team that puts Victor Wemeyama on the basketball court immediately becomes the best paint protection team in the league. It is fair to say, like, this is an 82 game award. And I think Victor's best case is since January 1st, since the Spurs have had the best record in the league. So I think, Bill, you have a strong point there. but I don't think he's that far down on offense on the ladder of most impactful offensive players and I think he is by far and away the most impactful defensive player on this planet

and that's where I arrive at the place where he is the most valuable player in the NBA right now. So they play Denver two more times. Yeah. And once on Saturday, April 4th, and then last game in the season, April 12th, which could potentially mean something for Denver. And if he kind of kicks Yokoj's ass in that April 4th game, I think there will be some momentum, but we will see.

Okay. Jalen Brown, House, I said, I think he has to be first team Omba with 10 games left. I think he's in the spot now. He has a chance to lose it if he sucks the last nine games or whatever. A couple history, Jalen things for you. Right now he's 28.6 points a game. rebounds a game, 5.2 assists the game. So he's a 28, 7 and 5

guy edging toward 29, 7 and 5. He's played 65 games. He's over 2,200 minutes. If you go in the NBA history and you try to find the 2875 club this century, 28.7 rebounds, 5 assists.

This century, it's Joker, Janice, Luca, Westbrook, Cardin, KD, and LeBron. And that's the entire list. If you go history since 1968, basically, it's MJ, Bird, Kareem, and Havlichick have done it. It's only happened 25 times since 1970, 28.5 points and above only 20 times in NBA history.

And then even if you go 27, 7 and 5 with guys playing 60 games or more, in their year 10 season or later, it's Havlicek, LeBron, Yokage, and Janus three times. I don't think he's getting enough credit for this season. And I'm not saying that as like Boston Homer guy. I'm like, because I'm watching it game to game. I'm like, this guy shows up every night and what he's doing statistically.

And now I guess the first question in his house, is there a little bit of a mid-90s steroids bump with some of these numbers? Are they all like 10 to 12% higher than maybe if you're comparing them to 20 years ago, 30 years ago, just because of the pace, some of the changes they've made? Is it just easier to be a 2875 guy? guy now. We know the answer to that because we have regular games not going into overtime where the teams are scoring 153 points or whatever. We certainly, there is plenty of evidence, I think, over the course of this season. The interesting thing to me is you have to draw a really,

really, really hard distinction between Spider-Mitchell, Cade Cunningham, and Jalen. Because you have three guys, I think we have three guys that we say are on first team no matter what. And that's Wemby, Joker, and SGA. I think Luke is on there no matter what now. I think he's grabbed the full spot. Yeah. I just think I don't see any version where he's not on first team. You agree, Kirk?

Yeah, I do. And I think he has to be on them. The core four foreigners, as I always call them. Yeah, those guys, those guys are on everything now. Yeah, this is where Kirk gets xenophobic. He's like, what the fuck? But I think he's been even harder. About LA 28, guys, that's all I'm saying.

If you go in Jalen versus Mitchell, offensively even, Jalen, the stuff he is doing defensively is just at a complete new level that's not even near where Mitchell is. He's guarded, last night he guarded SGA for a lot of the second half. He's doing that game after game.

He's choosing to guard the best guy in the other team. And then his record's going to be better, right? And they've had similar injury stuff. So I just feel like he has to have an edge. Cade's a tough for one because if they're going to be the one seed. Yeah. And depending on when he can come back in time, you know,

that's why this isn't a slam dunk yet. But when you hear like the names that Jay wins in with this season, Kirk, does it make you go, whoa, I didn't realize it was that good? I hadn't thought about it statistically because for me, it's been almost like a real primitive thing. Like, oh, Shireman and Houser and Hugo, and this team is where in the standings? For me, it's just like, oh, it's because Jalen Brown leveled up. Oh, he is a mid-range game now.

He's a leader now. So for me, that's where I was. And this is the question I would ask you guys. For me, it's almost like those core four foreigners who all happen to be in the Western Conference, right? Really the question is, who's the MVP of the Eastern Conference? And to me, it's clearly Cade or Jalen Brown. Yeah, I agree that. And I'm going to make you mad, Bill Simmons,

because I think if Cade gets to 65, which is a big if, I'm giving it to Cade just because of what they've done, where they've come from. But I'll also say I'm not mad at anybody. He says it's Jalen Brown. Come on. I think it's fair. But you think like what the overunders were before the year?

Right. And the Celts were, what, 41 and a half and Detroit was 47 and a half. So you're the Boston guy. I'm mad at you, by the way. How can we sit in October when we're trying to allocate our hard earned money? Not enough. The point that is, the correct point is Joe Missoula will not permit this. It doesn't matter who's on the goddamn team.

He has 12 players and he's rolling them out and they're going to play their ass off every goddamn night. That point wasn't made forcefully enough. I feel like. Well, I would say this, Joe. And I, because Bill won't say it, but I think, you know, Brad deserves credit. Okay. For building this sort of bones of this team now, it almost aspers like, but it's like,

oh, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaz and Patty Mills are starting tonight. Oh, they're going to win anyway. Like, that's what's happened. I didn't think about that last year. Think of the players they got rid of, right, in the offseason. It didn't give an indication, you know, that what they had in the pipeline wasn't jumping off the page. You weren't saying, oh, Kada's going to, we're going to see.

him with these upper echelon rebounding numbers and his rim protection. That wasn't the conversation we were having in October. I blame Bill Simmons. That's all. I like Ceda. I never thought he would be in the running for most improved player, even though the odds don't reflect it. But if I had said to you before the season house, here are the minutes per game for this Celtic season. Somebody gave it to me in a time machine. Keda, 25 minutes. Houser 24, Garza 15, Jordan Walsh, 17, and Shireman, 17, Hugo is going to play 15, we would have been like, wow, is that a 20-win team?

What's going on? That's your fault. I blame you. The Shireman thing is, I'll tell you, I'm all in on Shireman as a playoff guy. And you saw it last night, the bigger the game is,

he kind of rises to the occasion. It's pretty crazy. He's turning in a real asset. I would not, if I'm Samhouser, I'd be a little worried about being in Boston next year. because Simhouser makes 10. Shireman makes, you know, two. And that's, that's one where you could get a little creative, I think. And they have proof of concept. They were like, oh, Cornette, that's going to

hurt. No, it isn't. Didn't hurt at all. Not one bit. I still wish we had Cornett. It helped over here, though, Joe House. Yeah, I understand. Thank you. Right place, right time. I will say this. I've never. Except for Magic City. Spent a whole decade with Jaylen, did not think he had this level up in him. I thought we were where we were with it. And I think it's really unusual in a year 10. There was stuff going on last night. My dad went to the game.

We were talking about it. Like, Jalen had a real fuck you energy last night. And I don't think he likes SGA. And I think he was mad about the free throws the last time and he was getting the line there. A couple times when you could see him muttering under his breath and when he would get calls like muttering under his breath to SGA. And I just think in general,

he's become so much more of an alpha. We went to those 2022 finals games when Draymond was really like bitching him out. And he's a completely different guy at this point. Okay. So the Jalen case, thanks for making me feel like not a homer. The SGA, the stuff he's doing this year, where assuming he's going to be first team all and be against,

that's four straight, MVP voting will be 5 to 1.1. and one, assuming he gets it. He'll be the best guard for four straight years, and he'll have won one title and maybe two, and he'll be at 31 points a game for four years, five and six, 53% shooting. And if you go through the best guards of all time,

MJ had seven straight first teams from 87 and 93, it was 33 points a game. MVP was 21, 2,3-1-13. Three titles. Kobe from 06 to 10 was five straight first teams, 4-3-1-2-3 MVP. And then Magic from 83 to 90 was nine straight first teams. Magic Johnson just lost in history now.

And he was 27 and 12. He won three titles. I think SGA, if they win the title this year, obviously moves into this conversation. Even if he doesn't win the title, he might be at least knocking on the door that group house, you prepared to come to grips with this? He's at least like he knows where the address is now.

And he's bringing a pizza and some beers. And he's like, hey, guys, what's going on? And I can't believe it. Think about that. MJ Kobe and Magic. But what S.J is doing, he's in the vicinity now. Is that fair? Of course it's fair.

The combination of the success, the individual accolades, but really taking this team and letting it realize its full potential, it's because of him. He's the accelerant here. And the Presti acquisition, we will do that, how that was a sliding doors moment in the NBA. But it set up this guy. It let us get the full reveal with this guy.

And now that's a resume. If he gets another chip either this year or next, there's no reason they couldn't next year. It's a five-year run next year, even better. Yeah, yeah, no reason. I really respect it. The first straight and... Top 20 all time?

Top 25 all time. I have them in the high 20s now. He's in like that 20th, 27 range. Start getting those chips and that's the only thing that is missing for that resume. I think that last step for the truly great ones, like my dad went last night. And he was just like, that guy's just great. Like you just feel like every time... especially in the fourth quarter and a half court,

getting a stop against him, you feel great about it. Right? That's like the final level. You just assume he's going to score. You assume he can do what he wants. The foul-bating stuff, I know we've talked about that ad nauseum on a hundred different platforms. He's just really good at it.

Sometimes it's frustrating. I don't like it personally, but he's good at either getting the shot he wants or get into the line. And Kirk, it's fair to say he's in that, he's in that group now. At least knocking on the door of the group for real. If you're going to win the scoring title in 2026, you're going to be foul baiting.

That's the league we built. Okay, so that's my first point. My second point is sort of a humorous one. My favorite punishment for the clippers for this aspiration thing is they just have to watch SDA. It's almost like a preemptive, a preemptive punishment for, yeah, it's torture. It's like you had that dude. And dude, the thing you didn't even bring up is. is the 20-point game streak.

Now, I usually don't care about streaks like that as a stats nerd, but it really is just as a fan of the game. He hasn't had an 18-point game, a 16-point game in like two seasons. Like it's 131 games now, Bill. And it does look like Kobe, and it does look like Jordan in the mid-range, which I love is an old head. Forget the stats, forget the analytics, but he's so talented with his footwork.

I hate the foul baiting. I'll complain about it. I'm sure this playoffs, but his ability to score at all three levels as a guard is the best in class by far of his generation at the rim in the mid-range and beyond the arc. So he's just the perfect picture of what a great guard should look like in the mid-2020s. So back-to-back regular season MVP's, 13 guys have done it. Magic, Nash, Jordan. Curry are the only guards who have done it.

Now you go back to back finals MVP's all time. Jordan, Hakeem, Shaq, Kobe, LeBron, and Durant, and that's it. And we don't,

now we didn't have this, we didn't have finals MVP for Russell's career. He would have won like 10th straight, right? But that's, he's on a couple lists there that those are all the best players we've ever had in the history of the league.

So then you combine the other stuff and there you go. All right, we're taking a break and then we're going to throw this longevity. thing at U-House. This episode is brought to by Uber-Eats. It's winter and you can now get almost anything you need for the coldest months of the year delivered with Uber-Eats. What do I mean by almost?

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I called you on Tuesday, and I threw something big at you about Janus and Teddekupo. Coming off with Zach and I talked about on Sunday about how much would you give for Janus this summer and just the concept of what can you expect for what he's going to cost, right? And that was my case to Zach that he keeps getting hurt. he's getting older, he's moving closer to his mid-30s, why am I going to give up the farm? Like if I'm Miami, why am I giving up basically every asset I have to try to get this guy when I'm not sure he's going to play? He's played 13 years, 895 games, 89 playoff games.

He's over 29,000 minutes plus 3,000 playoff minutes. He's had one playoff one series in the last five years. Some of the injuries he's had house. 2021 hyper-extended knee 23 bad wrist brain 23 lower back contusion where he played hurt the whole playoffs when he landed on his back

a couple groin strains 2004 left calf strain missed playoffs this year two different calf strains and a hyper-extended knee with a bone bruise here's where I get scared and this is what I called Kirk about

and he's going to have some stuff for us there's two different lists here house that would terrify me if I'm trying to trade for Janus. List number one. Guys, year 14 of their career or later. Okay? 14th year or later.

How many guys do you think have averaged a 2010 in 50 plus games in a season? Year 14 or later. Just 20 points, 10 rebounds a game. How many times does it happen? Not a lot. 15 times. How about one guy ever?

What? Moses Malone. He had a 2012 in 1989 and a 2011 and 1988. And it's the only time it's ever happened with the year 14 or older guy. Ever. I was thinking about our era and guys like Carl Malone, he played a long time. But at some point, his 2010 automatic just fell off.

It became like a 25 and 9. So that's the other. list here, age 32 or later, so he's going to be 32 next year. How many guys have averaged a 24 and 10 who are 32 years old or older? 24 and 10. If I'm trading for Janus, I feel like it's a big decent number, like 15 guys. Same kind of answer. So if I'm trading on my assets for Janus, pretty fair to expect 24 and 10 for a couple years, right? So that seemed like if I'm trading four first round and protected picks for him

am I expecting a 24 and 10 back? You'd say yes, right? Yeah. That's a hard in the absence, like, Mikhail Bridges was four-first. Do you expect the 24-10? Did the Knicks expect the 24-10?

Yonis is a 29 and 13 guy when he plays normally. So 24-10 seems reasonable. All right. Age 32 or later, only four guys ever have done it. Kareem twice, Hakeem twice,

Karl Malone once, Elgin Baylor three times, have averaged 24 and 10 when they're 32 years older later. It has not happened in 28 years. So if I'm betting on Janus to be close to the 29 and 13 guy that he was, and I'm giving up all my assets for him, I'm banking on him bucking two pretty severe historical trends combined with him suddenly being healthy again when he has repeatedly not been healthy the last couple years. And if I'm in that war room thinking about making trades, I just would say we can't. There's too much evidence that this is dangerous to do. So, Kirk, I asked you to research this.

What did you come up with? Oh, I came up with so much. But, you know, first of all, I think somebody's going to trade for him. So I want to start with that. But no question. I would, I would be very cautious because one of the sort of high-end things here, you had one more year in this deal. as you said, he's turning 32 at the end of this calendar year. So one year more year in the deal means you're trading for him, you're giving him a three or four year extension for like 60 million a year. So we're just putting that in that. And the thesis here is that history teaches you should not get involved with paying

a 33, 34, 35 year old big man a lot of money. It's just a really bad idea. There's no shortage of examples. The analogy I have for you, Bill, as a New England guy myself. This isn't Tom Brady at 32. This is Gronk at 32, right? And it's not just the miles on the car.

I sent you a fake Carfax report on Janus onto Tocompo. This isn't the old lady who just drove the car to church. And the most staggering stat I have speaks to the wear and tear on Janus's body. This is a man who needs power. in the course of the player tracking area, he's been fouled 6,500 times. Wow. He's the only player that has been fouled more than 6,000 times. I think Hardin is close.

It's not just that he's played 14 years. It's the kind of wear and tear. And when you look for examples of dudes that buck the trends that you're talking about, Bill, you're talking about guys who have a touch, a grace, a jumper. hell, even LeBron James extended his career by doing what? Well, he's the smartest guy, you know, of the last 20 years. He just figured out all the little ways to keep going. And he became like a pretty good three-point shooter.

And now you see him hanging out beyond the arc. I don't see that for Janus. Janus is Christian Akoya. Like I said to you on the phone. Like this is a dude who is just built to collide and overpower people. So it's a little more like Shaquille O'Neill 90s. early 2000s of kind of a little more of the brute force than somebody like Durant who could just operate in the fringes and get to 27 a game when he's 37.

Yeah, so I don't know if we can do this on Netflix, but I plotted out a bunch of aging careers for the best big men. And to use a term from the rewatchables, whether we're looking at Janus, Garnett, O'Neill, Duncan, or Embed, these are guys I consider the best bigs of the modern game. They all peak at 30. They all peak at 30. It's Apex Mountain at age 30. And not only that, the second biggest feature of these curves is they go down fast.

Even my beloved Tim Duncan, the Spurs did better than anybody extending this dude's career. They needed Kauai and Manu and Tony to win once that he got past that apex. So I just don't see a bright future for Yannis. I love the player. But as a student of history and stats, there's just not a lot of reason to be. believe this guy is going to play at an MVP level or an all-MDA level going into his deep 30s. Yeah, and I think Dwight Howard's a good example of this, right? And I remember talking about this when it happened, like that he had that incredible Orlando run,

but 2011-12 range, his back was already starting to bother him. There was some signs like, also like what, it's not like he was adding anything to his game that was going to make him more special. Janice at least, like, you know, they can do the one-four offense with him and try to have him go and barrel into the basket. And maybe he could just be this incredible outlier house. Like we've had outliers. LeBron's an outlier. Tom Brady's an outlier.

I guess my question is what would be the outlier function with this other than him just being somehow healthy and not having wear and tear? Like he's not going to add a three-pointer at this point. He's never going to be a great free throw shooter. Could he reinvent himself as more of a low post guy? Or is this just going to be who he is, where he just keeps getting kind of banged up or hurt, and he's 58 to 60 games every year, and that's it. What do you think?

The answer to that question depends on where he lands and what they require of him. What the bucks have required of him over the last five years since they won the NBA championship is the version that we watched that has, as a feature, all of the injuries that you just listed, because it's a style of play that he is uniquely suited to be successful at. But they could not because of the way they were configured and some bad luck and maybe some bad decision making. Building a team around him, they couldn't afford him to play any other way.

He could only play that one way. And that was true with Dame on board. It's been true since they won the NBA championship. I don't know if that's going to necessarily be required of him at the Knicks with Miami. I don't know who the candidates are that can pull together a package that's attractive enough. It makes no sense whatsoever for any team that's like in a rebuild mode. No, it's a desperate team. In which way?

Desperate like Cleveland because Cleveland loses in the second round this upcoming season. Desperate like, you know, help me understand desperate. And then we can try and figure out what role he can play. It's Cleveland losing and realizing they've basically taken this Mitchell, Mobley, Jared, out and that whole nucleus as far as it can go. Should we just trade Mobley for Janus right now with a couple other things and try to cash in on two, three years of Janus hoping he can be here? It's the Knicks basically packaging towns and in and over together with some other stuff

and hoping that they can get two, three years at Yanis. But I think the really instructive one, because I spent a lot of time trying to figure this out and looking in history. And you think like KG, when the Celtics traded from in 0708, and the thinking with KG was, can we get five years out of this guy at this level? Same type of thing with Yannis, a lot of wear and tear already. He played a lot of games, a lot of minutes, a lot of miles. And what happened?

They won in 08 with him. He got hurt in 2009. 2010 made the finals, but he wasn't the same KG. Like he had three rebounds in game seven in 2010 finals, not the same guy. Then 2012, they lose in the conference finals. So you got five years out of them, but you really only got one awesome year out of them, right? Shaq's another one with Miami.

They trade for Shaq. I think they could have won an 05. Howson and I still feel that way, that if Wade does get hurt, maybe they actually win the title. They do win an 06, and then it goes off the cliff and he's done. And I think with Yonis,

I think you have to look at it. If you're trading all this stuff for him, history says it's probably one or two years that you're going to get, that'll be really good and that's it, which means to me it has to be a team that's close. So I look, if I'm the Warriors, I'm so happy I didn't get them. If I had to give up all my expirings and all my first round picks and,

like now I'm betting on injury stuff with him and Curry, who by the way has continually gotten hurt and probably should be still getting hurt because he's in his late 30s, like, where was that getting me? I think it's really only like a Knicks or Cleveland. I don't think San Antonio would go near him. I don't think O'KC would go near him. It's not their style. I thought Houston was a great candidate for a long time,

and I would still have Houston in the mix. But am I beating O'KC or San Antonio with him? With Van Vleet back? Bill, I actually heard there's a mystery team. I called around as part of this exercise to see who were potentially desperate places for Yonis to land. And somebody who knows stuff told me that Orlando has actually been very active in seeking out Janiceanta Tacompo services. Now, desperation sort of sets in in the NBA when after the first round of the playoffs.

So there's 16 teams that think they're in it. Two weeks later, there's eight teams that are out. That's where I think the Houston's, who else would we say, the Orlando's are going to emerge. The Knicks, Cleveland. The Knicks, Cleveland, right? That's the group I'm looking at because somebody will talk us themselves into it. And I could definitely see it being somebody like Orlando who has a player that could be appealing to send back. But unfortunately, they gave all their picks away to Memphis to get Desmond Bain.

Long story short is I do think you guys are on to something. There will be a market. There will be a team that talks themselves into it, whether they should or not. But the window is very short. Remember he's going to sign a new deal in 2007 next fall. And that's going to be start when he's 34 years old and go deep into his 30s. And I think Atlanta is in there too. However it goes with them, I still feel like they have the assets to make a move for him.

You could talk yourself and to screw it. Let's try to really go out of here in the Eastern Conference. They're not going to be desperate, but they might see it as an opportunity. And then the one I looked at, and the reason I wanted to do this, not just because like, oh, we should do a Janus trade thing. Because I think what happens in the playoffs is going to determine a lot of the desperation. So as we look at like how the last two weeks of the, how the last two weeks of the playoffs are shaking out, our regular season shaking out, who's going to potentially have a terrible playoffs? then the desperation comes in. So Charlotte, I was thinking like, man,

they have a couple really good draft picks. They really like their team. And could you just turn Miles Bridges and a bunch of picks in the Yannis and try to make a real run at this and hope that you can get two, three, four years out of them? I'll just tell you, if I was in that inner circle war room,

I would probably be the voice saying, it makes me nervous. I don't think we should do it. Yeah. Um, it, like the worst case example of this ever was the, was the Lakers with Kobe when the Chris Paul trade fell through. And they went after Dwight Howard and Steve Nash, right? Two guys with bad backs. Nash was already like headed toward a decline. And then Dwight Howard, they only had for a year and were keeping his finger, their fingers crossed that he was still Dwight Howard. And then that, you know, that really set them back. And that ended up, they, they tank for three years after that. So. Here's what I want to ask you, though, because I hit you this with Embed last year. I'm going to give you the same question with Janus. If we're picturing the career arc of Shaq in 2006, which version of Shaq is Janus on Takumbo in March of 20206?

So I think it's 0-4 Shaq. End of the Lakers era right before the heat. So if that's true, then you've got to give assets because that's a title winner right there. Here's the difference. crucial difference. Janice has been in awesome shape and gives a shit over and over again

he has cared about whatever the best version of himself physically can possibly be. Right? Shaq in 2004 and 03 and really 02 played himself in the shape during the year.

That's right. And 04 was not in shape at all. And when he went to Miami in 05, it was a, I'm coming to take my corners back kind of a Kaiser-Sose I even did the, what did I call it, the revenge scale or something like that. I did a whole page two thing about, Shaq.

And he did. For those two years, he was in shape, and he did kick ass, and he was great. Janus is who he is. Like, you're trading for the guy that he's been the last couple of years. The calf strains really make me nervous. That's right. Because it's recurring. It's not like there's been one.

It feels like this is just a thing that keeps happening to him now. And I don't know why that would get better. Um, house. I was saying that the Yanna Shaq, the difference is Shaq got into awesome shape. Yonis is already in shape. So that would be the one, the one difference. The only thing I'll say on the calf strain point, which is concerning because we now have in this, especially this year, the hyper focus on Achilles protection and the amount of running the guys are doing and how this version of the NBA, the way it's played now at a speed. And then the amount of running, it greatly exceeds anything in, in previous history.

I wonder if that is a new way to conduct some load management, especially with Janus. Like, you only kind of need one in his history, and then you can safely point to it any time that you need him to not play a handful of games. She said, well, there's a calf,

cap tension kind of situation. Right. It's in his, look, look, it's in his history. It's medical history. So,

Kirk, the other one that was rumored a bunch was Minnesota, who seemed like they were trying to, move heaven and earth to figure out how to get them, which would have involved trading half the roster to different places to get enough assets to cut. I never really understood it. Yeah. It seemed like it screwed them up a little bit afterwards because basically every guy except Dan was in a trade rumor. And I would assume this summer, maybe it's a little easier. They still don't have the picks in the same way. So my guess is it'll be the Knicks or Cleveland

unless there's like in Orlando, it's so bad. And they're just like, whoa, Palo for Janus. Let's just call it in. And especially like, who knows, there's always been rumors with, there's always been rumors like, how long will Palo stay in Orlando anyway? Who knows? Yeah, you hear all this stuff about Minnesota. I've been hearing it for years with Tim Connolly and Janus.

I don't know if it's true, but then there's the rumors that Janus had them on his preferred list that may or may not even exist. And then the other team I heard, Bill, is Portland in part because that would be ideal for Milwaukee to get back a lot of their own picks from previous deals. So I think there will be a huge marketplace for this guy. So I think there's really two questions with the honest in 2026. But the question is, should there be as big of a marketplace as you think based on the history of all this stuff? And I don't know the answer. And it all comes back to desperation, right?

And this is a marketplace where desperate GMs and desperate ownership groups tend to, to do irrational things. And the market forces are controlled by desperate people in a lot of times. So I do think somebody like Miami, New York, Charlotte would be great. But will they talk themselves into that? I think they will. And that's where I'm going to land here. I think that somebody will probably overpay for the amount of risk they'll have to absorb

to add Janice on to Ticombo to their roster. So the case for it is you say, look, we've had historical outliers over and over again. Kevin Durrana still scoring 26 a game and shooting 50, 40, 90 splits. LeBron is at age 41 still a valuable piece on a team that has a chance to make the finals potentially. Tom Brady played to his 45. Like you would have to start looking at the all-time outliers and asking if,

why couldn't he honest be like that? He's been in awesome shape his whole career. He had some bad luck with some stupid things. some of those injuries like, sorry, he fell on his back and that's why the 2023 playoffs went sideways. That's not Janice's fault. The wear and tear stuff

is all fixable stuff. It's not like he blew out his Patel attended. So if you're in one of those rooms and you start going glass half full, that's where you start talking yourself into it. And it's like, Carl Anthony Towns just sucked. He's the reason we're not in the playoffs anymore.

And you know, you start turning out your own guys and talking yourself into the glass half full case for somebody else. And that's how it go. I would just, I thought it was notable that San Antonio and O KC were like, we're good. Two teams that had more than enough to trade for him. And honestly, Houston seemed like we're good. Not the same year for us.

So the fact that three of the smartest teams in the league weren't intrigued at all, I had heard different things about whether Boston kicked the tires on it. I don't know what to believe with that. I think everybody at least nudged it a little. So there you go. Yeah, year 14 or later, House, Moses Malone, your guy on the Wizards, 20 and 10. Famous Washington Bullet, Moses Malone. House, I got a mailback question from somebody about the Wizards that I was going to throw at you that I have to find.

It was about the best five players of Wizards history. would they lose in a playoff series to every other team's best five players in the history of their franchise? It's not even close, of course. Oh, wait, way, way, way, way, way. The best five players of every other franchise in NBA history, does that include the Vancouver Grizzlies? You would beat the Grizzlies. Or maybe you wouldn't. That's like Marcus Saul, Zach Randolph, Mike Conley.

Gritten grind. So the listener was Chris Mooney and he asked if the top five all time was Wes Anseld, Elvin Hayes, Bradley Beale, Gilbert Arenas, and John Wall. The best starting five we've had. I would throw, I would have Dandridge in there instead of Bradley Beale.

Sure, that's fine. Beal, because of the length of his career, Beal, in the very operational number. But we can't have him anyway for the hypothetical fake time tournament. I don't want his chemistry. But Bobby Dandridge was a playoffs MVP in 1978. We didn't even have playoffs MVP.

So I'm looking at Big West, Elvin Hayes, Dandridge, Gilbert Arenas, and John Wall. I mean, you have to look at Charlotte. Here are the teams. Charlotte, New Orleans.

So Charlotte, can I have LJ and Alonzo morning in that? I can. You can? And then I would probably have Lamello, Khan, and Brandon Miller is my other three. Oh, no, I could get Baron Davis with that. No, you get Jamarman. Oh, I can have Glenn Rice from the mid-90s. Oh, that's a good player.

Glenn Rice was amazing. I don't know, man. We're going to do some work on this. Maybe later. You, you'd please note, I didn't hesitate. That you lose to every other franchise. You have to go to expansion teams. Teams have only been around the last.

Because remember, this Washington franchise has a, won 50 games since when the last time it's been 50 years since the last time they won 50 games because even you would say like oh Sacramento would have to be worse than those but it's like no Sacramento i got Oscar Robertson i get i get sea web i get some of the do that area yeah i might be able to put boogie cousins on that team is my center um i could have darren fox is my point card. Yeah, West Sonseld, Elvin Hayes, Dandridge, Arenas, and Walsh, that's just a weird team. I'm going to have to, as a project, I might have to go through and really try to figure out. What would the Hawks team be? Oh, the Hawks would get Bob Pettit. That's the thing. It's like,

all of these other teams have a guy who would be like somewhere in the top 30. Kurt Goldsberg, do we cover everything? Yeah, dude. How are you looking at March Madness? You got any picks? House, what are you? So we're taping this Thursday. We can't really do. the Thursday games, but the Friday games, which include our guy, A-Cuff. We were on that so early. House and I, we were aligned with that ever talking about it.

But we have on Friday, we have St. John's Duke, we have Alabama, Michigan. Oh, A-Cuff's playing tonight against Arizona. Yeah, Thursday night. Yeah, all right. I got a good note on A-Cuff that you love. First of all, I think he'd be the perfect Hawks player, thanks to Joe Dumars. So if they somehow get lucky and get that position.

Right. Yeah, be perfect, right? But after the University of Texas played Arkansas this season, Sean Miller, our head coach at Texas, just went to the postgame pressure. I was like, that's one of the best guards I've ever seen play the sport of basketball. He was just, like, awestruck by how great he is. So, yeah, what a player he is.

There's been some terrible comparisons with him. Like, Stephen A was talking about. how he's like Iverson. Like he's not like Iverson at all. Not even a little bit. Remind me of Iverson one way. Yeah. I didn't,

I don't like anybody who says Derek Rose. That's ridiculous. No, it's a little, he's damed to me. He's damed to me. Yeah, those three.

He's damed to me. Yeah. I love when they ding him on the defense. Like Dame guarded anybody for 13 years and like Kyrie regarded anybody. Like what are we talking about? Oh, his defense is a good. Okay, cool.

what point guards, Steve Nash was so good on defense. Like what do we, you're drafting him for his offense. House tonight. I don't know. Where do you stand on Burris? Love him.

I have him at minus 122 in the Fandall sportsbook for at least two three pointers. His three point shooting over the last 13 games, he only has one game in the last 13 where he's taken less than three. Over that period, he's shooting 26 for 53 from the field. This is not a setup. You did, you didn't,

tell me ahead of time that we were going to talk about this guy. But I bet on him. So I have these numbers available in this place right here. Let's go. Love him. He's going to be a good pro. This is what I worry about with our guy Aykuff tonight. Because Burris is a real big physical.

And Kirk, the secret story of the 2020s that hasn't been told is L.A. Basketball, the freaking Renaissance, just producing over and over again these awesome players. And there's even been some guys who were kind of a letdown. But they've over and over again have It feels like half the NBA is from L.A. And I don't know what happened.

I'm a New York basketball guy for life. But dude, it's hard. Maybe if Mick Cronin wants such a prick, they would say and play in UCLA. Kirk, are you excited for your 21 and 14 Texas team in a couple hours? Dude, they've overachieved in this tournament. I want to give my hats off to those guys. I'm more excited for two other things in Austin.

Our women's team is the number one seed. They should make the final four. And my editor at the ringer.com, Isaac, he's getting married this weekend in Austin, Texas. So I'd like to give him a shout out to the ringer's own, Isaac. Great job by Isaac. Yeah, but anyway, the Longhorn's got to play the Boilermakers. Great coach, Matt Painter, great three group of seniors in Purdue. As much as I'd love to pick the Longhorns, I think the Boilermakers are probably a safe bet tonight.

House, what's your relationship with Patino? Obviously, I hate him for ruining the Celtics for four years. but you've you've kind of enjoyed them over the years, I feel like. Well, anytime there's Italian food and sex under a table, you've got me for life. Like, those are two things that you... Wait, was it under the table or on the table? It doesn't matter. Does it matter?

23 seconds. Those are top 10 things on my list, my life list. So yes, Patino guy right here. But come on, when he got back to St. Johns and restoring that program and giving it that on for again, giving it that New York swagger. And that team taking his identity, that their defensive intensity, I love it. I love it so much. I'm here for all of it.

These games in D.C. are going to be outrageous. St. John's Duke and Yukon, Michigan State. How are we so lucky? I mean, I wish I could afford a ticket. Kirk, I wish you knew us in college when these teams we would attach ourselves to, like the Kenny Anderson, Georgia Tech team. Remember how much we love them? fucking fun. Oh, that was a great team.

That Georgia Tech team. We love Kenny Anderson so much. Yeah. That's still one of my biggest disappointments ever from college to pros is the Kenny Anderson not being like one of the 50 best players of all time. He had everything. Yeah. Era, man. He was so special. There was just, I still don't feel like there's anyone. I don't know if I've ever seen a point guard quite like him. It was like he had like the magic passing gene. He was lefty. He was so much fun to play with. Like he was just. The algorithm threw with me sometime in the last two weeks, that LSU Georgia Tech game with Shaq and Maudeau. Oh, my God.

Raouf against Georgia Tech with Kenny Anderson cooking and Georgia Tech pulled it out right at the end with Kenny Anderson. It was like, man, this was good mother effing basketball. This was an outstanding college basketball. We watched when you guys were on Holy Cross. Every time I dropped 290 across Worcester, I think about you boys up on that hill watching basketball together. We had some great college basketball memories back then. Like we, St. Patrick's Day at Holy Cross, which was like the biggest day of the year, was the Princeton almost upside against Georgetown, which was just like,

it just everyone packed in like a giant place watching it. And then we also, I mean, the worst memory was the Gathers. That whole thing was so awful. But that was the team we liked, we really liked watching. But then we had the Bo Kimball, the tournament run. That was amazing. And then House was graduated by the time the Duke, Kentucky game happened. But we had UNLV Duke when we were there.

It was kind of the last real heyday. And then Arkansas was incredible during that era. House and I might have been the first two people on the East Coast to really profess our love to the Fab Five. I don't know. I can't verify this with anyone else. We were so in on those guys, right? We were in on that when they all decided to play together. Yeah.

We're like, what's going on here? They're going to have all the best guys that go to Michigan. But that was that whole era we loved. And we talked about this with Jalen, but we love Jalen in college. We never gave up the stock with him. One of my favorite nights ever with the sports guy was with 2014 finals. You and Jalen were here in Austin. That was when we reunited the Fab Five.

Jacko. Ray Jackson. I was there. Yeah. Yeah, that was there. We came in eight. That was a pinch me moment. Yeah.

Yeah, that was a pinch me moment because I also love the Fab Five and never believed in my life. I would ever be spending time with Ray Jackson and Jalen in a bar. That was awesome. It's still unbelievable to me that they never actually won the title with what the embarrassment or riches they had. But that's how good college basketball was back then. All right, we lost House's camera at the tail end. Kurt Goldsbury's camera is still working.

Kurt Goldsbury. That was awesome. What a sports weekend. Sweet 16, baseball starting. NBA, like a lot of playoff jockeying, a lot of stuff going on. We get the NFL draft coming up. So great times all around. Thanks to Kirk. Thanks to Gahau and Eduardo, as always. Thanks to House and his camera that stopped working. And I'm going to be back on Sunday night on this podcast live on Netflix with Zach Lo. So we'll see you. 21 plus in president select states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in president DC, Kentucky, Wyoming. Opt-in required. Rewards are non-wadrystrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration leg requirements and

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