The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Media Day BS Watch, Towns Trade Redux, Remembering Mutombo, and NFL Quarter-Mark Trends With Rob Mahoney and Anthony Dabbundo

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Rob Mahoney to reflect on the big trade from over the weekend that will send Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks and Julius Randle to the Timberwolves (01:40). Wi...th NBA training camps underway, Bill and Rob share their favorite training camp story lines and briefly discuss Dikembe Mutombo's legacy (24:46). Next, Bill is joined by Anthony Dabbundo to break down NFL story lines and trends after a quarter of the season has passed, as well as  talk playoff baseball (01:00:07). The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney and Anthony Dabbundo Producers: Jessie Lopez and Steve Ceruti Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Coming up, a little basketball, a little football, even a little baseball. Next. It's the to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way if you were wrong. You can bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch a pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs in the next drive.
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Starting point is 00:01:10 Gambling problem called 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on Prime.
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Starting point is 00:01:51 We put up the Blair Witch Project. It was me and Chris Ryan. Just crazy how successful this movie was 25 years ago. We broke all of it down and we're going to be doing five movies on Scary Month. You'll be able to watch all of them on the Ringer Movies YouTube channel. You can watch everything we do on this podcast on the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube. And by the way, speaking of the Ringer, we're launching 60 songs that explain the 2000s with Rob Harvella.
Starting point is 00:02:20 He ran out of 90 songs and he said, screw it, let's move into the 2000s. So if you like that podcast, it launches this week and we'll have a bunch of 2000 songs on there. Good luck to Rob in that podcast. That's a great podcast. All right, coming up on this podcast, I am going to be talking to the one and only Rob Mahoney. We're going to be talking about training camp storylines, the town's trade, and a little Dikembe Mutombo as well. And then Anthony Dibundo from the Ringer Gambling Show
Starting point is 00:02:51 comes on to talk about some NFL trends that he's seen. And if there's a baseball team we should jump on as a future bet for the World Series. So that's the podcast. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this on a Tuesday afternoon.
Starting point is 00:03:27 This is a guy who got ready for training camp by losing at least 25 to 30 pounds. Oh, no, that was Joel Embiid. But it is Rob Mahoney. How are you, Rob? I'm good. You know, Joel and I get confused very often. So I'll forgive the error just this once. 25 to 30 pounds.
Starting point is 00:03:37 What's the exact number for Joel? Three and a half. We'll see. He said he's still working on it. He doesn't care. We're going to talk about this when we do training camp storyline. So you covered this on your pod before I covered it on my pod, but the big towns trade, which is not official yet. And I think when it happened, everybody has their reactions. I certainly had mine. Now we've had a chance for it to sink in for a few days. Has anything changed in your head since this trade happened? I think I keep coming back to, and maybe this is my personal risk aversion talking,
Starting point is 00:04:10 and we can get into that if you want to, but I find it harder putting myself in the place of a contending team to think, wouldn't it be cool if we just dramatically reconfigure everything that we do? And I say that for both sides of this deal. I think the Wolves were in a pretty good position to contend in the West. I thought the Knicks with Mikael Bridges were sitting in a pretty favorable position in the East, at least to make another deep run. And so for both of those teams to look at their situations, and granted there are flaws there, but say, we want to shake this up dramatically. I just don't know that I would have gotten there coming into the season. Maybe at the deadline, maybe deeper in once you saw a little bit more of what you've got.
Starting point is 00:04:46 But I don't know that I was ready to make a move this big on either side. Yeah, the more distance I got from it, it just seems to me it's about flexibility, where you have a Minnesota team that just could not sustain the financial model of whatever that team was going to be, right? And they felt like we actually have it out to get two players and contend this year and have some flexibility going forward and we're not trapped to those next three
Starting point is 00:05:12 towns years where our model just goes sideways. I get it. And I probably am now leaning toward liking the trade a little bit more for them because there's a world where Randall comes in and goes, great. From the Knicks standpoint, the more I stare at it, it just seems like we need a center.
Starting point is 00:05:30 Let's push all the chips in. We're getting the best guy in the trade. And most important, and I wish I had made this point harder on Saturday, we just don't want to give Randall that extension. And we think it's gonna be a problem that we're not giving him the extension. I think, I talked about chemistry stuff on Saturday,
Starting point is 00:05:45 and I wish I'd hit the extension part harder because going into a season where he's going to have to sacrifice and then also not know what he's getting paid. And then also not know what his role is. And then also not know if he's going to finish every game. And there might be situations where he's just on the bench for the last five minutes. And be in a situation where it's him and the Nova Knicks, who everybody in the Knicks loves. I think they just sniffed it out and didn't like where that was headed.
Starting point is 00:06:13 And at least with Towns throughout this year. So it's a three-year commitment after this. It's a guy they all knew. It's a CAA guy. It's a Kentucky guy. And they're just making the bet. But there's no way they felt 100% on it, I don't think. I don't think either team can feel 100%.
Starting point is 00:06:30 But I want to focus on the Randall part of this. Because you said you can see the vision of how this could go well for Minnesota if everything works right for Randall. But everything you just said about his extension also applies to their financial situation. Either they are in bed with julius randall for the foreseeable future or he is a very short-term piece of this team and i think that's where i get caught up on the cat element is the finances were what they were and it was always going to be more likely that they would trade him at some point or trade some big financial piece at some point then keep this whole group together that just the writing was
Starting point is 00:07:04 kind of on the wall. It was just a matter of timing and who. But if all you're getting back for Cat is a first and Dante DiVincenzo, a player we all like, and maybe or maybe not the future of Julius Randle at a price point you may or may not actually like, why are we doing that?
Starting point is 00:07:22 Why are we doing that when we have a ready-made conference finals worthy team? Maybe it doesn't get all the way there this year, but certainly worthy of competing at that level. It's a great question. And I think maybe they look at it from their end and say, if this starts to slide backwards, what are our outs? And ironically, they were in the same position
Starting point is 00:07:42 that the Knicks are in now. The glass half empty version of this, what are our outs? And for Minnesota, they would have had no outs at that point, right? You probably, there's a Gobert extension that they probably would have passed on
Starting point is 00:07:54 and maybe they'll pass on it anyway. There's a, we have no chance to trade towns now. This is our one chance to get two guys plus a little more flexibility, and maybe that's gone. I also think they could probably quietly shop him around a little bit
Starting point is 00:08:11 and have at least a little bit of a sense for what these guys are worth, but it speaks to another NBA piece of this, which are these high-priced, non-alpha superstars, not maybe all NBA, but not quite. Bradley Beal, Zach Levine, but it feels like there's more of those. Because the Ingram thing, I think, was the most fascinating one to me all summer. Nobody wanted him. And I did Ringer 100, which you did too. You did the votes.
Starting point is 00:08:39 Ingram's somewhere between, you could put him as high as high 40s, you could put him low 60s, but he's one of the best, probably 60 players in the league. And he was at 36 million, I think, or 35 million for one more year. And everybody was like, pass. Yeah. And another extension debacle too. Another guy who the Pelicans
Starting point is 00:08:59 just aren't looking at that future and saying, we see how he fits with what we have and with the direction that we're going. And the problem with Brandon Ingram is I think it's hard for a lot of teams to envision exactly what that is because of the class of player he is and because of what his strengths are, which is somebody who is ultimately a lot more comfortable with the ball in his hands, but has not shown that he can elevate a team into great standing and great postseason success with that kind of responsibility. Right. And the Warriors looked at it and said, no thanks.
Starting point is 00:09:27 Yes. When they desperately wanted to make a move and pursued Laurie Markin all summer. Towns is more interesting because I think Towns is somebody, first of all, Towns is good. I mean, I had him in my top 35. I'm sure you did too. He's somewhere in the 25, 35 range. No, I think I had him like 32. He's somebody you can really talk yourself into as a shooting stretch five. Same way the Celtics talked themselves into Porzingis. But the price for Porzingis was ironically
Starting point is 00:09:55 a little similar to the Towns price. And Minnesota got more for Towns, but same thing where it's like, man, that's all they got for Towns? But super expensive guy. He's missed a bunch of games last five years. There's real questions about the self-awareness with him, which I think are going to be tested to the gills in New York City. It's interesting to hear all the different takes on that too, because I think everybody likes him,
Starting point is 00:10:19 but I think everybody has the same concerns about him in New York City. There's two types of people that seem to just fail in New York City. And one of those two types is I am not self-aware at all. And I just say things that then become dissected and ridiculed for two straight days. And maybe I shouldn't have said that. He was always a maybe I shouldn't have said that guy. And now he's going in the worst city to be a maybe I shouldn't have said that guy. And now he's going in the worst city to be in. Maybe I shouldn't have said that guy. That part of it, I think, is going to be tough. Even just kind of figuring out how he fits and finds his place in things basketball-wise will be interesting for him. Because he is a guy who, by the nature of his skill set, and this is true of any kind of stretch big, you have to pick your spots very carefully. And I thought that's where the Porzingis story panned out so successfully for Boston, is they knew exactly these are the matchups where you put him at the elbow and he goes to work. These are the situations where he's just spacing.
Starting point is 00:11:10 This is when he could get away with rolling. All that was very carefully laid out. It's a tricky thing to manage. And I think this is where the Nova-Knicks thing could potentially be more than a cute story. The Knicks have a lot that they need to incorporate now with Cat and Bridges and a reshuffled bench.
Starting point is 00:11:27 And before we forget, OG Ananobi has played like 30 games with the Knicks. Right. If some of these guys already have the baked-in familiarity of going through a postseason run together, and even Bridges,
Starting point is 00:11:37 who you're bringing in, knows how to play with Brunson and Hart, there's a continuity there of a kind, even if it's a little bit older in terms of the history. Maybe that makes all's a little bit older in terms of the history. Maybe that makes all this a little bit easier in terms of, okay, Bridges is a guy you don't necessarily have to worry about
Starting point is 00:11:52 funneling a certain kind of touch to or a certain kind of opportunity to. All of our attention coming into camp can be how do we make Carl Anthony Towns comfortable in the way that we play? And how do we maximize what he does? Because there's no question they need a creator like him. I just wonder if he can be
Starting point is 00:12:07 the kind of creator who isn't committing two and a half offensive fouls a night, who isn't taking a couple shots that he shouldn't take every so often, like killing the momentum of a Jalen Brunson run.
Starting point is 00:12:17 What was your take on Towns defensively? I'm looking up his basketball reference as we're talking. What was your take on his defensive abilities and deficiencies before Gobert showed up in Minnesota? Did not seem super tenable as a full-time five to me. But if he was going to be tenable at any point,
Starting point is 00:12:37 it would probably be with someone like OG Ananobi next to him and probably be with another wing defender like Mikael Bridges next to him. So as far as setting him up for some kind of defensive success, I think this is as close as you're going to get. And there's also the possibility when Mitchell Robinson comes back, you could play Towns at the four in the way that he played next to Gobert. That there's some momentum there and a style there
Starting point is 00:12:56 that could potentially work. And his shooting is certainly good enough. I just don't think if Towns is your five, you're going to be an elite, elite defensive team. It's more about... Even with all the other guys they have. I think it's a matter of managing it. It's like you're going to be very solid,
Starting point is 00:13:11 probably the back part of the top 10. Good defensive team. They have the rebounding. They have the versatility. They have the length. I think what's most important for them is they do match up better with the Celtics. And if that is the most important matchup in the field,
Starting point is 00:13:25 then I think Towns does a lot for you there in terms of something to leverage and also a style that I think fits that matchup a little better. Yeah, I was thinking about, I was already moving ahead to like April, May. Of course. When we start, when the playoffs really shrinks to just matchups and attacking.
Starting point is 00:13:42 And teams were already attacking Brunson, right? It's like, how can we wear him down? How can we just put him in stuff? And now they're going to be attacking him with Towns' guy. And Ananobi and Bridges and Josh Hart, as good as those guys are defensively, I kind of feel like they're not going to be involved in a lot of playoff basketball
Starting point is 00:13:59 because it's going to be all about who's Towns guarding, bring them over, set the screen on Brunson's guy, and let's just go to Town on those two guys and everybody else can kind of stay over there. And teams tried to do that to Minnesota last year with Towns to pretty solid success. At the same time, I was impressed by what he did against Jokic. Now, granted, he had Nas Reed and he had Gobert, but that was about as good as I've seen him do. So when Townsend, Minnesota was shitty, he was basically between 17 and 18 shots a game. And then the last two years as Ant kind of ascended, he was at 15 a game. And then we get to the playoffs last year and this year, that's about 14 a game. And I do wonder on the Knicks, how many shots are there for him?
Starting point is 00:14:47 Is he going to be the second option? Is it going to be Brunson is the first option and then just a hodgepodge of other guys? And are they just going to tell him, here's what we want, dude. Punish smaller guys in the post, hit some threes, play defense, move your feet. And that's what we want.
Starting point is 00:15:04 And grab 10, 11 rebounds. That's all we want. You're here. We wanted you here. We traded for you. You're here for the next three years. We're not going to trade you. You're our guy.
Starting point is 00:15:13 But we need your help here, here, and here. And just do this. Don't worry about scoring 25 points a game anymore. Those days are over. And whether he accepts that or not. I think we have reason to suspect that he will. For all of Kat's faults, he has been pretty willing to try new things. And when pushes come to shove, it has almost always been incumbent on him. He's the one moving to the fore. He is the
Starting point is 00:15:37 one spacing out to begin with. He is the one who has to take on a different kind of role. I'm not saying he's been universally successful, but look, stars are creatures of habit. And there are a lot of guys in the league who categorically will not change their substitution pattern because they're so superstitious that like, I need to come in at the eight minute mark or else my whole rhythm is off. And I give Kat a lot of credit for the fact that he's been willing to try lots of stuff for the Wolves and for a winning team. And that's absolutely what the Knicks are, a team with a proven track record, with winning habits,
Starting point is 00:16:06 with guys who are likable and high energy and you want to play well for, I think he's going to want to try to be on his best behavior with that stuff. It's funny how the Hartenstein, how that became a sliding doors for this season. Oh, it did. It made OKC the prohibitive favorite,
Starting point is 00:16:23 at least for the regular season. I don't know about the playoffs, but I think if you're betting who's going to have the best record in the league this season, right? It did. It made OKC the prohibitive favorite, like at least for the regular season. I don't know about the playoffs, but I think if you're betting who's going to have the best record in the league this season, they have to be the first team
Starting point is 00:16:30 mentioned. But then it also opens the door for the Knicks to now have to go, shit, what do we do? And you start looking into available centers and they just weren't
Starting point is 00:16:40 there. So you're occasionally a cynical guy. Occasionally. I try to fight it. You're on the Prestige TV pod a lot. You're doing anti-hero shows and weird shows and dark shows.
Starting point is 00:16:51 A lot of dark shows in the Prestige pod. Certainly. The Towns Prestige TV season three, Towns Goes to New York, I think would start out great. And then by episode three, maybe there's a couple red herrings and uh-ohs. Maybe there's a district attorney having a heart attack at the end of episode five.
Starting point is 00:17:11 Oh, definitely. It's definitely a rollercoaster ride is my point. The Carl Anthony Towns in New York City. Ultimately, I'm rooting for him the same way I would root for him on those shows. Even though he's on the Knicks, they're competing against the Celtics. But I've always kind of liked him. And I think one of the recurring themes with his career is people being frustrated by him because they want to like him. And it's like, oh, dude, why'd you say that? Come on. Why'd you foul that guy 40 feet from the basket? It's like, come on, dude. Can you stop being you? Can you just reach your potential? And I don't know if that's his destiny or not as a player.
Starting point is 00:17:45 I actually want the opposite. I want him to be him because I feel like when he steps in it and says the wrong thing and it's the, why did you say that kind of moment? It's usually because he's trying to be somebody he's not. And he's speaking with like a bluster and a bravado that doesn't always seem like it's coming that naturally to him. New York is not the easiest place to be comfortable in your own skin. I hope that he can find that peace somehow. I hope he can find whatever his corner of the city is, make it his own, stay sequestered in your neighborhood,
Starting point is 00:18:14 get to know your bodega. I think there's a version of this that can work. And like you, I really hope to see it. Yeah, Boston, New York, Philly, all the East Coast cities are similar in that authenticity always is going to win in any of those cities, right? They're always going to root for people who just really give a shit and stay true to themselves. And the guys who always seem to get in trouble over and over again in any of those cities are the people that
Starting point is 00:18:38 talk out of their ass, pretend they're something they're not, take some sort of false bravado over the actual accomplishments on the court and it's weird because Embiid is probably the only one who hasn't been victim of that because Philly just loves Embiid and sometimes he'll say stuff or do stuff and you're like I can't believe the Sixers fans are putting up
Starting point is 00:18:58 with this but they just they like the guy now you're just trying to agitate the season hasn't even started and you're just lighting little fires. Well, next segment is when we agitate. Okay. So Towns has played,
Starting point is 00:19:10 he played 16 playoff games for his entire career until last year when he also played 16 playoff games, 32 playoff games total for him. And last year he was in a really sweet spot with Minnesota where Edwards was the go-to guy. The defense was kind of the meal ticket. And basically anything he did was a bonus. Do you feel like that's the same in New York
Starting point is 00:19:31 or do you think they need more than that? I think they need a little bit more, but I also think that the overall team is set up better for him to do more and to press a little bit. The spacing is going to be a little cleaner. The fact that the rest of the team is so perimeter oriented,
Starting point is 00:19:44 I think is going to open up room for him to even just attack the offensive glass, something that Tom Thibodeau historically loves his teams doing. And so there's going to be a chance for him to exert his impact on the game in a different way. And frankly, for a cat team, I think that makes more
Starting point is 00:19:59 sense than what we had with the Wolves, where Anthony Edwards, based on the spacing that Minnesota was working with, had to do a lot of really high-level processing in order to try to get over the hump. And he's just not quite, quite there yet. And maybe he will be next time we see him in the playoffs. The Knicks are different,
Starting point is 00:20:17 because Jalen Brunson does have to do some of that, but all the spacing and stuff that we're talking about allows Josh Hart to bust out for a meaningful game, allows Isaiah allows Josh Hart to bust out for a meaningful game, allows Isaiah Hartenstein to bust out for a meaningful game. You put one of the most skilled bigs in the league in that position in CAD, I don't see why he can't have a huge impact on that offense. Yeah, it's weird.
Starting point is 00:20:37 Because I'm putting myself to CAD on and trying to figure out if I'm more or less scared of them after this trade. Yeah. And I think the answer is more because they really didn't have a center. The center thing, losing Hartenstein, never knowing when Mitchell Robinson was going to come back. The guys that were available that might be available in January, February,
Starting point is 00:20:58 it just seemed like that was going to sink them. And they were basically going to have to do the small ball, Tibbs, everybody playing 42 minutes, weird lineups, and try to sneak their way through. And now the team makes a little more sense. But man, if it doesn't work out. I know the Knicks fans don't want to hear it. They're like, well, who's making a trade?
Starting point is 00:21:16 You could have said that about Porzingis. And it's like, yeah, but Porzingis is making 30 and Towns is in the high 50s. One last thing on Minnesota and then we'll wrap this part up. As a league pass team, I think they're going to be one of the most
Starting point is 00:21:34 interesting teams in the first six weeks of the season to see how all the pieces fit together. They're going to pass better because Randall was kind of a sneaky good passer and he would get assists and create shots for other people. And Towns was never a create shots for anybody else guy. Devin Chenzo is way more fun to play with, I think, than any swing they had.
Starting point is 00:21:57 So you have that stuff. So then Dillingham coming off the bench just as this crazy kind of heat check ball running through him. I can carry the offense for 15 minutes. There's just a lot of stuff going on, and I'm really interested to see how it works. What happens to Gobert coming out of the Olympics where he was basically just shoved to the side and treated like he was Luke Cornett? Luke Cornett probably played more. But I think it's going to be a fun team to watch and I have no idea
Starting point is 00:22:26 you could tell me they're going to be awesome or you could tell me we'll be doing what's wrong with the Wolves segments three weeks in and I'm prepared for any scenario with that right? I think it's going to be pretty comfortably in between I don't think they're going to be awesome out of the gate there's just too much they need to sort through first but they're too talented to be bad
Starting point is 00:22:42 I don't think they're going to flounder by any means I actually do think the Randall thing you mentioned about his playmaking is going to be really nice for them, especially in some of the smaller groups or when he and Dante DiVincenzo, for example, are out there together. Randall is much more of a drive
Starting point is 00:22:58 and spray out kind of playmaker. And I will say this about Cat. He's not a great passer. The one thing he did well was set up Rudy. Kind of like big to big lobs. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's never really been Randall's playmaking style. And so there's going to be a bit of an adjustment there.
Starting point is 00:23:14 But I think the trade-off as far as a team that is positioning a rookie to basically be their backup point guard right now, although I guess Anthony Edwards is probably kind of the backup point guard, but Rob Dillingham is going to be an important part of this team. And if you can ease him in with the training wheels of having a playmaking four in the mix, that's going to help. I'm just having visions of Ant trying to go to work and Julius Randall spotting up on the weak side and teams going, yes, we will trust you to take that shot as many times as you would like to take it. And the Wolves are going to walk into that.
Starting point is 00:23:48 And when that guy isn't cat shooting 40% from three, there are nights where that really, really hurts. And then you have the night where McDaniels doesn't make anything. You've Gobert out there who can't make anything. So you have three of the four ant teammates have the ability to shoot. But I do like that they can throw a little more flexibility out with lineups now than you really felt it during the Dallas series. You know, like once Ant couldn't look like a reasonable facsimile of MJ anymore, all of a sudden that went sideways. So your final recommendation is thumbs up for the Knicks, thumbs tilting a little down for the T-Wolves? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:22 That's where you landed? I think that's fair. Would I have made this move if I were the Knicks? I think given the talent-Wolves? Yeah. That's where you landed? I think that's fair. Would I have made this move if I were the Knicks? I think given the talent play, you probably have to. But it does make me at least a little bit nervous.
Starting point is 00:24:31 I think you bet on Carl and you see if you can make it work. The Wolves, I don't think I would have swung this big right now. What prestige TV show do you think the Knicks are going to be this year?
Starting point is 00:24:42 What would you go with? The plotline you laid out sounded very like New York Ozark to me, which is, I think, a much darker outcome than the Knicks would like. New York Ozark. They're looking bright and sunny. I think it's going to be good vibes in New York for the most part this year. I think it's going to be super fun.
Starting point is 00:24:58 Teams that are that talented, yeah, there's a little bit of hand-wringing, but there's so many new toys to play with in an engaging and exciting way that maybe prestige isn't the right zone. Maybe it's more of like an Abbott Elementary kind of a situation. Oh, I like it. Well, I wonder, this happened to Porzingis last year when, and there were a lot of seeds planted the year before in Washington, so it wasn't too shocking, but he comes in and it's just the best version of him. As you said before, they're using him in all the right ways. They're not leaning on him too much, but they're leaning on him a lot. Whatever he's giving them, that's always the best lineup they had. And it was really cool. It was this guy who used to be the unicorn and then he was injury prone and then kind of found his spot on this
Starting point is 00:25:39 team and became this beloved Celtic. And there's a world where that happens to Towns. I'm definitely not ruling it out. It's the most fascinating transaction we had in the offseason, even though we have a million transactions. Towns and the Knicks is the best one. Are you prepared for the outcome where a playoff series is going to be determined by KP versus Towns?
Starting point is 00:26:01 And the Eastern Conference universe is going to ride on that. It really does. It feels like that it's going to be round two or round three. It's going to happen. We're going to take a break and we're going to do favorite preseason training camp storylines. And there's a crucial difference, which I'll explain after the break. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite.
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Starting point is 00:26:49 burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. This episode is brought to you by Movember.
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Starting point is 00:28:02 Just search Movember. All right, training camp storylines are different than season storylines. Season storylines is like, you know, who's going to win the MVP? Can the Celtics go back to back? Training camp storylines are twinged and fixed and tinged.
Starting point is 00:28:23 Twinged? Tinged. Tinged? Tinged. fixed and tinged, twinged, tinged, tinged, tinged. It's tinged. And twinged in a little bit of fiction, a little bit of theater, a little bit of hyperbole. Yeah. A little bit of you're at the farmer's market and people are trying to like, hey, you got to try these apples or the best apples you're ever going to eat. I saw you get them off the truck.
Starting point is 00:28:47 Those look like all the other apples. You got to try these cheese crisps. Do I? So off season, I'll just give you my favorite and then you rip off all the ones you have. My favorite is the Clippers trying to navigate this Kawhi Leonard knee thing.
Starting point is 00:29:03 We got to do it. Just glass half full. It's going good. He's basically, if you read between the lines, he's saying, my knee's never going to be the same. But I think I'm going to be able to manage it, guys. So come to the Intuit Dome. Because I'll be playing there.
Starting point is 00:29:24 Probably not. But I'll probably be playing there all year. And I'll be 40% as good as I used to be. But it'll be great. Come on down in the Intuit Dome. I just could not believe this is like year seven of this. So that jumped out to be the most. You agree?
Starting point is 00:29:38 It is also on my list. I think Clipper's bleak watch in general has to be on here. Kawhi on Media Day said he does plan to be available for opening night oh thank you he also said he never plans to miss games so he does often miss games he i i don't know that i'm like betting hard that he's going to be available or maybe he's there for opening night for very political financial reasons and then quickly recedes into some scheduled rest after that. It could be that kind of situation. I think the problem is it's not just Kawhi.
Starting point is 00:30:12 This is a team that also lost Paul George. I don't know if you caught this Media Day quote. James Harden's takeaway from watching Luka in the NBA Finals was that actually maybe he should dominate the ball more. That the offense is definitely going to involve a lot of him. Luka basically laid the blueprint that I believed in in the 2010s and that could be us. That was James Harden. How is it that Luka Doncic, whatever
Starting point is 00:30:32 your priors are and your view of the world, if you watch Luka Doncic he will in some way confirm it. I don't know what effect he has on people that makes him do this, but it really works that way. Harden, everyone else is like, this is too much of a burden for Luka. They probably need a little bit more.
Starting point is 00:30:50 He's wearing down, and Harden's like, I like this. This is great. By the way, he played with Kyrie, and then demanded a trade out of there. So maybe it's hard to replicate. Yeah, it's... You know, the guy I shared season tickets with we're excited to go to the Intuit Dome
Starting point is 00:31:09 I just this is I think year six of do you want to go tonight dot dot dot is Kawhi playing not sure let me look
Starting point is 00:31:20 that's over a half decade now with Kawhi and I just at this point, he was what in the 2011 draft, right? This is year 15. That sounds right. You're 14 or 15 for him. I can't imagine whose knees were like, yeah, I had a lot of trouble with my knees. And then in year 15 of my career, it really turned around. My knees became great. Well, I mean, the bionic technology might be there. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:31:46 Maybe. It's brutal. So, I actually think they knew Kawhi's knees were fucked, and that's why they didn't want to give Paul George all that money. Could be. I think that's, especially when you think, like, he goes to the Olympic team, they kind of gently send him packing in a couple days,
Starting point is 00:32:01 and it's like, yeah, Kawhi's decided to drop out. They fucking pushed his ass out. They were like, we need 12 guys and you're not in shape to play and we don't think you're going to be healthy. And I just don't think it's going to change. It's sad, but at the same time, he won
Starting point is 00:32:17 a title and made a ton of money and had a really interesting career and he's going to be a Hall of Famer. You look at somebody like Derrick Rose who had that knee injury at the worst possible time in his career and missed two post-seasons and was never really the same.
Starting point is 00:32:31 Kawhi is better than that. But it's still a bummer. We just never really got to see it for an extended stretch with the Clippers. It would be half of a season, three-fourths of a season.
Starting point is 00:32:42 It just never happened. Plenty of things have gone wrong for him, but the biggest possible things went right. And so it's hard to really frown on a career like that. I think where I'm stuck with the Clippers right now is Kawhi is going to be whatever sort of wildcard health-wise he's going to be. James Harden is going to be, I would suspect, more or less the player we saw last year, give or take, the usage will go up, as he has alluded to. The other part of it that worries me is some of the other chatter out of Media Day for them was Norm Powell was talking about how losing Paul George actually might be an addition by subtraction
Starting point is 00:33:17 situation because look at all these capable guys we have that step into bigger roles. I don't know that I personally would be puffing out my chest at Terrence Mann and Derek Jones taking on the mantle of your offense two players I like but I don't like like that right and there's gonna be a lot of that sort of thing for the Clippers this year yeah well what do you think their odds are to make the playoffs on FanDuel Clippers make the playoffs yes Yes. What are those odds? I don't even think they're going to be a play-in team. Well, FanDuel says plus 205
Starting point is 00:33:52 for yes, minus 250 for no. Yeah. Which is brutal. The Rockets are even odds yes. Yes. Rockets are going to be a better team than the Clippers. Golden State are even odds yes you go through
Starting point is 00:34:06 all these teams the consensus is after who's the worst team in the West Portland Portland for sure
Starting point is 00:34:14 they're in play for that second worst spot if Kawhi's not playing healthy and then on top of it which this would be the first of many times I mentioned this on a podcast
Starting point is 00:34:23 OKC has a right to swap first-round picks with them in 2025, which could be an absolute all-time, even by Clippers standards, dagger, if that ends up being a top three pick. All right, what other training camps do you have? So you talked about OKC being the prohibitive favorite regular season-wise.
Starting point is 00:34:45 I agree. I think we're all very high on the thunder. That said, how sure are we that the Grizzlies could not steal the top seed in the West? I like this. Something about the photos coming out of media day of seeing Ja and Bane and Jackson and Smart and Zach Eadie, the confidence of like,
Starting point is 00:35:04 we're going to pose all these guys together. We trust that it's going to work. It really stoked my sense of like, this team is going to kill in the regular season. And I don't even know if they're going to solve all their half court issues. I'm not even saying anything about Jaws, like a guy who can crack playoff level defenses.
Starting point is 00:35:19 I just think the West this year could be the kind of conference where you win 55 games and you get first. Right. Just because it's so deep. And the Grizzlies have done that before. I think they could do it again right now. Marcus Smart watching the Celtics win the title.
Starting point is 00:35:35 Chip on his shoulder. There you go. John Morant trying to reclaim his best under 30 American superstar title from Anthony Edwards. A lot of chips. Triple J didn't make the Olympic team. Brandon Clark coming back from injury. Zach Eadie, nobody believed in me.
Starting point is 00:35:53 I'm actually the best player of this draft. I like it. There's a lot of stuff. There's some interesting jaw quotes. I don't think jaw quotes. Oh, there always are. We talked about self-awareness with Towns earlier. I wouldn't say Ja had just a plethora of self-awareness last year with some of the interviews and quotes he did,
Starting point is 00:36:12 but this year it did seem like he really just wanted to take back his spot in the league hierarchy, and he had been a little humbled by the last two years. Now, they could be telling him what to say, but it at least passed some imaginary first test for me. We'll see how this goes. If he's on a player podcast two weeks from now saying
Starting point is 00:36:31 something crazy, we'll see. Verno, on the mismatch with Jacoby, shout out to those guys. I had a fun time listening to that. First of all, Verno said Ja was going to be first team all-NBA. And then paused. And was like, okay.
Starting point is 00:36:50 And then he unwound it and he said, I think he's going to be on one of the first two teams all-NBA. And I was like, whoa, that's aggressive. And I started thinking about it. He probably will be. If he's played 75 games and looks like Ja again, he probably will be one of the four guards. Yeah. Right?
Starting point is 00:37:06 It's Mitchell, it's Edwards, who else is in the Curry? Well, it's also positionless, too. He could wiggle his way in any number of ways. My doubt will never be positionless, Rob. Well, what position does Luka Doncic play? I'm still unclear on that. I don't know what position. What is he?
Starting point is 00:37:22 I guess wing? One thing as far as the all-NBA stuff goes, and I think as you're thinking about the guard hierarchy specifically, we just talked about Kat's impact on the Knicks. I think Jalen Brunson's numbers will come down a little bit. And his overall driving impact may not be seen in quite the way it was at the peak during, say, the postseason. Because he's going to have more help.
Starting point is 00:37:44 He's going to have a lot more going on around him in a way where it's not so definitively Jalen Brunson carrying this thing. I think that favors guys like Ja, where if he has a monster season, there's an opportunity here for him to overtake where Steph would end up in this kind of pecking order if the Warriors underwhelm again. Overtake Brunson, potentially, although I think Jalen Brunson's a better player right now. But all the narrative stuff could end up tilting in his direction, weirdly enough, even though he was the one who kind of blew up and then got hurt,
Starting point is 00:38:14 like the momentum of this larger Grizzlies run in the first place. 30-1 for MVP for Ja. It's pretty intriguing. We're not allowed to bet on it because we have votes. Yes. You have to be a top three seed, which I think both of us think Memphis could be.
Starting point is 00:38:31 Definitely. You'd have to be the best player in a really good for six straight months team, which I think he qualifies for. I was surprised those odds were where they were. I think there's a lot of amnesia for how good he was. The other one I was looking at him was the points per game title, which he was 48 to one. Who's the favorite for that? The favorite is Luca plus 165, but it's probably around, I don't know, 30, 31 range. I don't know
Starting point is 00:38:59 if Jack can get that high, but that team's going to be pretty good. I'm with you on Memphis. The odds have, the over-under for them has been shooting up. It was too low to begin with, and now it feels like everybody's looking at it the same way. Minnesota has this weird trade. The number two seed's available. What do you have for your next storyline? Which of
Starting point is 00:39:19 Orlando, Indiana, and Cleveland can hit another gear? Right, kind of the comfortable middle of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. I think we can say Celtics, Orlando, Indiana, and Cleveland can hit another gear. Right? Kind of the comfortable middle of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. I think we can say Celtics, Knicks, Sixers, maybe the Bucks with an asterisk are sort of the top of the East right now. Is the asterisk 37 years old and coming off multiple arthroscopic surgeries?
Starting point is 00:39:40 I don't know. I haven't talked to asterisk yet. We're going to come back. I think asterisk may be in the room here with us. Okay. But as far as these teams go, it's so tempting because they're all in that 47-48 win range last season to think, why couldn't the Magic get to 50? Why couldn't the Cavs jump to 50 wins next season? Is there any team in this group you feel very confident in taking whatever the next step is? Well, Sacramento is a good example of this last year where they win 48, but a lot
Starting point is 00:40:12 of things went right for that to happen. And then the league got a little better last year and all of a sudden they dropped, even though they were kind of the same team now that to make this trade. I look at Orlando as the upside team out of those because I still feel like they have a trade to make. I think there's somebody for them to go and get who can give them a little scoring and take a little bit of a load off of those other two would be where my head's at. You mentioned the guards thing. I forgot to mention this because I was thinking about Hal Burton. He's another one like, well, he'd take the throne back. I'm really interested to see what happens with Booker this season, coming off the Olympic experience and not great year by his standards and whether sometimes those guys play
Starting point is 00:40:54 with all the great guys and you come out of the Olympics and you're just better. And I wonder if a career year for him could be looming. So anyway, so you had Orlando, Indiana, and Cleveland. And Cleveland has stability, which they did not have in the same way last year. Complete stability. Orlando got a taste. Yes. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:41:11 Indiana has a year with Siakam. That's the big thing. And some continuity for the most part. They didn't do anything crazy. So which one of those three do you like the most? I find myself kind of leaning Indy. And I think it's sort of the combination. I agree with you that upside swing-wise,
Starting point is 00:41:26 Orlando is the most interesting. I think it's the combination of it could be Paolo or Franz, who really makes a big leap at some point. Yeah. God forbid if both of them do, that would put you in a completely different tier. Plus, they have a lot of other interesting young players.
Starting point is 00:41:40 There's a lot to like there and plenty of room to think they could get better. They also, offensively, could be the kind of team that falls into, it's a very different case than the Kings because that was an offense-first version of Sacramento. But as teams are getting more and more used to how the Magic play and the physicality of their defense and the limitations, I think most importantly on offense, is there a solve there? Is there more a way to run them aground? I think that's possible. I think Orlando's still going to be really good. Cleveland is probably the most
Starting point is 00:42:07 stable baseline team, but I just don't see them getting a lot better, unless you really think Evan Mobley is ready to take that step. Otherwise, it's... The coach piece could change it. That could change it, but the team is kind of what it is. Yeah. There's a little lineup flexibility and
Starting point is 00:42:22 in the defense of their core guys a lot of guys who can play multiple positions which gives you some ability to toggle things around and make a rotation that makes like a little bit more cogent sense overall but i think with indy it's the combination of the full season of siakam which is something we know like i i feel like i have a good grasp of who pascal siakam is as player, what he can do for that team, getting a training camp with him coming in, knowing he's a part of everything we'll do for you. Healthy Halliburton, who wasn't
Starting point is 00:42:52 healthy really for four months. Exactly. Healthy Tyrese Halliburton. And then you have the mix of what you don't know, which is, can Halliburton take that next step? What's next for Andrew Nembhard or Ben Shepard? Are they going to get anything meaningful out of Jair Nembhard or Ben Shepard? Are they going to get anything meaningful out of Jairus Walker?
Starting point is 00:43:06 A Ben Shepard reference. Wow. That was... Stuck that in. What am I here for? That was... If not to sneak in Ben Shepard. Sprinkled some stock
Starting point is 00:43:12 on the Ben Shepard Express. I'm buying it. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, needless to say. Well, off of what you said, I had a training camp storyline of... This is one of my favorites. Because you went traditional with that.
Starting point is 00:43:25 Like those three, let's monitor their training camp, see who's going to come out. One of my favorite early training camp storylines, Donovan Mitchell wanted to be in Cleveland all along. Of course. Come on, guys. This is where I always wanted to be. Then there was this article,
Starting point is 00:43:39 I think, in the Cleveland Point Dealer. Mitchell thought about other possibilities. It would have been a disservice not to at least consider them. But he said his mind was made up early in 2024, either January or February. And when given an opportunity to reinforce those words, he inked an extension, blah, blah, blah. So his mind was made up either in January or February when two things happened. Brooklyn was an absolute dumpster fire. That was option one one And the Knicks were becoming the most popular team in the city
Starting point is 00:44:07 With Jalen Brunson as a top seven guy And that option was out Guess who was looking awesome? The Cleveland Cavaliers I love training camp I'm going to give you another one Here's another just classic It's D'Angelo Russell
Starting point is 00:44:23 Pretending he's not going to be shopped vigorously in two months season. I missed this. What did he say? I just got used to it, he said about trade rumors. Hopefully you'll know what you're going to get from me.
Starting point is 00:44:34 This is definitely a new feel, new everything going on with destruction with JJ coming around and implementing what he's trying to do. It's changed the rhythm of things around here. My approach is just to stay steady. D'Angelo, I hope you're running. Hopefully you know what you're going to get from me
Starting point is 00:44:50 out of D'Angelo Russell's mouth. With all due respect, I do not. I do not. D'Angelo, maybe don't start looking at hoops hype around early December when trade rumor season starts because you're not going to be in the team in March. I'm sorry. Seem like a nice guy.
Starting point is 00:45:06 I appreciated Zach Levine's approach to this too on media day, which was he kind of had this like big speech about, you know, if you ever need to hear something about my take, you're going to hear it from me or my agent. We're going to be super straightforward with you. Also, whatever's in the past, I refuse to comment on it.
Starting point is 00:45:20 We're not going to mention it ever again. It never happened. Absolutely not. Do you hear me? What else do you have for training camp story, Lentz? This is where the asterisk comes back. I cannot stop worrying about the Bucs. I want to believe I am
Starting point is 00:45:37 a Giannis guy. I think any team that has him on it is destined for a very hard floor. His effort level, his play, his dominance can absolutely take you so far. The fact that he said he and Dame did not have a chance to meet up at all this summer is both extremely understandable
Starting point is 00:45:55 for a guy who played in the Olympics and also got married. I get it. It also does not make me feel any better about a team that does not seem able to have Chris Middleton to start the season, that already had a work-in-progress feel as far as the chemistry of those guys, and hasn't done anything in the offseason to change the mix in a big way.
Starting point is 00:46:16 Right. They got 7th, 8th, and 9th men, and they kind of tossed away their draft pick on a 19-year-old. Yeah, I had as a subset of that the Chris Middleton. Yeah, it's still... But it's going to be fine.
Starting point is 00:46:29 It's all going to be fine. It's October 1st, guys. Is he playing? Oh, he's not out there yet? This doesn't sound fine. And also, he's old by NBA swingman standards. He has been really hurt every year since the 2021 finals.
Starting point is 00:46:46 And I have real concerns that he's your shutdown guy against the Jason Tatums of the world. As you should be. And this is the cross that I bear as someone who thinks Chris Middleton is very good. The idea of him being injured and out of the lineup, to me, I'm like, this is a vital part of this team. And I am now
Starting point is 00:47:02 freaked out by the depth chart when he's not out there. That's not where you want to be with chris at this stage now and another training camp storyline is dame his head's right last year was the year from hell a lot of personal stuff traded out of nowhere didn't work out before the year because he was afraid he's gonna get hurt and um yannis gets hurt in the playoffs Everything that went wrong could go wrong. Coach changed. Terry Stotts. But now, had the summer.
Starting point is 00:47:29 I worked out. I'm ready. I'm here. I'm ready to reclaim my throne. I don't know if it's true, but it sounded good. I had a cousin of this, speaking of old teams,
Starting point is 00:47:41 and I agree with you on Milwaukee. And I'm probably more bullish on Milwaukee than most because I just think Giannis is going to be on just a psychotic tear this year. He's always awesome. We're going to be like, Giannis is psychotic. And I mean that in a positive way for the aggregators. Positive psychotic. Psychotically competitive, wanting to win,
Starting point is 00:47:58 being a psycho about winning. Gleefully psychotic. Gleefully competitively psychotic. Jimmy Butler didn't get an extension over the offseason, but it's fine. Yep. That's a good training camp storyline. It's fine.
Starting point is 00:48:13 Didn't need the extension. It's fine. I also have a cousin of this one, which is Jimmy Butler showed up without a perm, and actually it worked on me. I am buying serious Jimmy Butler showing up ready for business. He's not fucking around on photo day anymore. Absolutely not fucking around.
Starting point is 00:48:29 And I say this, yes, I realize I am a rube. I realize I am playing right into Jimmy's elaborate plot and probably like a big face coffee marketing scheme in some way. Like I know I'm being had. But also, Jimmy Butler taking the regular season seriously is a massive fucking deal
Starting point is 00:48:47 if it happens for the Heat. I know they can make the finals as a seventh seed, but you should not try to do that every year. You should actually try to win games and get into the middle of the East. And there's a reason I didn't even talk about them in that Orlando, Cleveland, Indiana mix. I don't entirely know that they deserve it, but also I feel myself buying back in to what they're selling. Well, and they also did the thing where they're like, we don't know what our roster is going to be in February
Starting point is 00:49:11 and we're not going to kill ourselves figuring it out now. We'll see how it goes. Yeah. Which I thought kind of the Knicks were doing and then all of a sudden they're training for Towns. But I think they looked around and they were probably intrigued by a bunch of different things.
Starting point is 00:49:22 I'm sure they kicked the tires on Markkanen. I'm sure they kicked the tires on, at least had a meeting about Zach Levine. Sure. Right? I'm sure they at least had a meeting about any guy making over $30 billion who was available, but ultimately they kept their flexibility. We'll see with Hero.
Starting point is 00:49:41 I think I don't know what the trade value, they kind of really needed him know what the trade value they kind of really needed him to be a trade value guy and they almost were able to get him in a dame deal and maybe got a little too aggressive with it but they kind of need him to be really good this year either for them or as a trade piece
Starting point is 00:49:59 and that's kind of related to the Jimmy thing too I think those are really the only guys as far as upside goes, that can get Miami over the hump of mediocrity on offense. That's a team that's really struggled to create shots. Jimmy is a guy who can get to the line consistently, one of the only players on the team that can do that. He also has the low-hanging fruit of the cuts and the fast breaks that can juice the numbers a little bit. Hero just has to be flat better than he's been. I think Bam is kind of reaching
Starting point is 00:50:28 who he can be and who he is as a player. I don't expect anything dramatically different from him. But they need something dramatically different from Tyler Hero. So you're not going to write the Bam is expanding his offense in an effort to grow the heat, but it's the same thing every year with Bam? I was just going to do like a 3,000 word
Starting point is 00:50:43 Heywood Highsmith feature but if you want to bet that we can talk about it. Keep us posted. Joel Embiid, we mentioned him earlier. He was talking about how he lost weight and he said, I still got a ways to go. I still want to lose some more. We got to do whatever it takes to make sure
Starting point is 00:50:58 that in the postseason I'm healthy. There's no agenda, no all-star, no all-NBA. I'm just going to let that sit there for a second. So Joel is basically saying the postseason is now what matters. All right. Better late than never. He's 30 years old. But maybe he gets it.
Starting point is 00:51:20 I don't know. What would you take? This is where my instinct is to say, maybe you should have cared about those things previously. Oh, yeah. You think so, doctor? Look, that's my instinct. I'm trying to grow. I'm trying to be a bigger person. I'm trying to be positive. And I think what you're supposed to do is encourage positive behaviors when they happen around you, not point out, oh, you're the guy who shows up late all the time. I'm so glad you're here, Joel Embiid. I'm so glad that you are here in this way, in this fashion. I genuinely hope that whatever body transformation you say you have had, it suits you and works well. And I hope this whole season goes brilliantly. We all would love to see Joel Embiid in an actual competitive high-level playoff series or just run start to finish.
Starting point is 00:52:08 I think that's something that we're all waiting for. So for the sake of wanting to believe in the change, I'm here. I'm here for you, Joel. I'm believing. I'm choosing to buy into this. I agree. I was on the record as I cannot take him seriously as the best guy on a team that
Starting point is 00:52:27 wins four straight playoff rounds until he shows up for a season in shape and understands that it's a nine month run. It seems like we've checked the first box. So congrats to him. We can skip over the training camp storyline of we want Brandon Ingram here in New Orleans, which I'm sure is going to be said by somebody over at some point. And there's probably, it's going to be like a hostage video. JJ coaching LeBron and his son, dot, dot, dot. This won't be weird at all. That's another storyline. No, it's going to be, it's going to be cool. It's not going to be a circus in any way, shape, or form. What is your competitive history with your son? Do you play sports together against each other? What is the dynamic between you? He started playing tennis this year. And I was like, you'll never beat me. I will have to be in a wheelchair or using a walker for you to beat me.
Starting point is 00:53:20 And he's like, I will beat you by the time I'm 18. And he also thinks when he was 10, he thought he could beat me in a fight. So I would say super competitive. In a fight? Yeah. He said UFC right now, he would tap me out in a minute. Yeah, it's competitive. Wow. So I don't know how that, with LeBron and his son, I don't know how that goes with that. But I would assume the son's just trying to take it to him at all times. That's what sons do with dads. It's the best part about being a son.
Starting point is 00:53:50 Yeah. Is lighting up your dad, throwing him under the bus, airing out- Making fun of him. Absolutely. Airing out exactly how lame he is. I think the key here is that
Starting point is 00:54:01 all of LeBron's eccentricities are out there. How much is Bronny going to tell us or tell his teammates or tell anyone within their organization about, oh, here's this crazy thing my dad did? Yeah, he put that on Instagram. I saw it. We all know about it. My son would definitely do that to me. There's no question. The whole situation is very strange. I think it will be aided only by the fact that Bronny is not in a position right now to threaten by merit to play NBA minutes. Will he play anyway? I guess we'll see. I suspect they're going to get out the let's put them on the floor together, have the moment kind of thing relatively early. Put them in the G League. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:40 So that the questions stop coming. It's going to get more awkward if Bronny is actually a part of this thing in a real way. Whether he's shoehorned into that role, whether he lights it up in the G League or succeeds so much as a pressure defender and the Lakers need exactly that, that's when it gets weird. I think they're almost helped right now
Starting point is 00:55:02 by the fact that no one is really expecting that much of Bronny. He's either two years away or two years away for being two years away. But I just don't see how he's going to play in a rotation for a team that's trying to make the playoffs. That seems inconceivable to me. He does not appear to be that for a bunch of reasons. I think honestly,
Starting point is 00:55:20 even though the defense is kind of the strength right now, I think even that needs a ton of work as it often does for rookie guards coming into the league. Any more training camp storylines? Honestly, those are the big ones for me. Anything else dangling out there? Celtics. It's all fine. Tatum's head's in the right place.
Starting point is 00:55:39 Then there's going to be some story in November about how he had to fix his shot and he couldn't remember how to shoot it anymore and Drew Hanlon fixed it. That'll happen in November. He had a hitch in his shot. How do you feel about the relative ironing out of the Zapruder footage of Jason Tatum's jumper? You saw the hitch, right? Oh, it was there. Yeah. Yeah. I was on a lot of text threads over the summer from how he shot in rookie year,
Starting point is 00:56:03 sophomore year for the celtics versus whatever that stop hitch thing he was doing the olympics and i think he got rid of it sometimes it happens it happens in tennis throwing a baseball uh golf people although all of a sudden their swing gets fucked up they don't know what happened so i think i think that's what happened we'll see if uh i honestly jaylen Brown shaving his beard was the biggest conversation piece for the Celtic fans of my life. It shook you up. Because he had really grown it out. And then all of a sudden, he went back
Starting point is 00:56:32 to 2019 Jalen. So I was surprised by that. What does that say about him, do you think? Where is he mentally that he's shaving the beard? You know what that told me? My new girlfriend doesn't like my beard and it scratches her face and she asked me to shave it. That's what it told me. That's the spirit of compromise. We can support it.
Starting point is 00:56:46 Before we go, you wrote about Mutombo for the ringer. Yeah. A really beloved, beloved, beloved on and off the court guy. And it was the case when he played. He was certainly like going to games in the 90s and the 2000s. Somebody that just stood out on the court, which is pretty rare when you have a bunch of super tall guys. There's something different about how he carried himself. His style was so unique where he was like this cross of,
Starting point is 00:57:14 I don't know, like Mark Eaton blocking shots in the 80s, but way better and way more athletic, but also had a little bit of an offensive game, and it seemed conceivable in 2001. This was the one guy that might be able to slow down Shaq at his peak, peak, peak. And then Shaq just was like, no, not even this guy's stopping me. Didn't have as many playoff moments as I probably would have liked. Yeah. But some immortal ones, like the Denver one, if you're going to have a moment, that's the one you want. I think the regret I have with his career
Starting point is 00:57:47 was switching from Denver to Atlanta. I think it's just more fun if he stays in Denver, goes to Atlanta, you know, whatever. It was just weird. I don't really have fond memories of those Atlanta teams. But what happened to him with Houston when Darryl latched onto him and he's part of that 22 20, 22 game winning streak team.
Starting point is 00:58:05 And he became one of these early advanced metrics guys where people are like, Hey, when Mutombo's in all of these good things happen, even if like he barely shoots anyway, he lasts two decades and then has just an incredible impact in the league itself. And was just beloved. What,
Starting point is 00:58:22 when you're writing about it, what were the things that jumped out to you? I mean, for one, I think the fact that he was a four-time defensive player of the year winner who was left off the NBA 75 team, I don't feel great about. And I think plus if you zoom out in like, how do we tell the story of basketball history in these modern eras? I think Dikembe Mutombo is a big part of it. I think the finger wag iconography is such a huge thing. I think the fact that he was a part of a lot of, if not highly successful, winning and very memorable teams, that kind of stuff does matter. And ultimately, I think what you're alluding to with the on-off stuff and what
Starting point is 00:58:55 those kinds of numbers capture with a player like him is he's intimidating as hell. Even when he was pushing 40, guys were afraid to challenge him because he was such a successful shot blocker, because he was going to let you know all about it afterwards. And I think that the contrast of warm and fuzzy, big laughing Dikembe Mutombo, who is just one of, I think, the foremost charitable forces that the modern NBA has seen
Starting point is 00:59:21 in terms of the work he's done around the world and in Africa specifically, contrasted with like, this guy's also like an asshole who's laughing in your face on the court. Those are the sorts of contrasts that always endear a player to me. And I think with Mutombo, there's just so much to like. And there's so many stages of his career and his life you could latch onto and say, like for you, it's not the Hawks. There's someone out there for whom they see that when they think of Mutombo, they think of him with that broad picture
Starting point is 00:59:48 of the Hawk across the front of the jersey. And I love that he can mean so many different things to so many different people. Well, there was also three other pieces with him. The voice, which everyone imitated, which was just one of the iconic sports voices. Everyone did it. Then the subset of that was the Inside the NBA guys.
Starting point is 01:00:06 They just loved him. Oh, yeah. Barkley had so much joy. They would always get so much Mutombo material. But from an unintentional comedy standpoint, in a good way, I felt like he was the pioneer of the slam dunk contest reactions. Oh, yeah. He was the first one when they would cut to,
Starting point is 01:00:24 and whatever his reaction was, He was the first one when they would cut to and, and whatever his reaction was, was always the best one. And then I felt like for the next 20 years, it was everybody doing a Mutombo reaction, but his were completely genuine. He had a million of them and it was, it really became one of the funniest parts of the slam dunk contest was him going nuts, him holding his head, him, him with his thing, him turning around and complete disbelief. And, uh, I don't know. He just, I don't, there's not many guys who had a higher approval rating than them. There's nobody who was like, fuck my tumbo. Like everybody, everybody loved that guy. And then after he retired, um, was a really important NBA guy
Starting point is 01:01:01 behind the scenes, I think really beloved and had a huge, huge, huge impact and did so much charitable stuff. Everybody really liked him. I think it says a lot that even the guys of his era who he had ostensible rivalries with or was blocking or they were trying to dunk on him. It was just like a running bit. There's the legendary clip of him bragging to Jordan that he'd never dunked on him before and Jordan getting him and finger wagging in his face and there's similar things as you said with Mutombo and Shaq with all of these greats of his era
Starting point is 01:01:31 he was like a counterpoint at some point in their careers at some point and one of the fun things writing the obit was figuring out all the players that he had blocked over the course of his career and when you play as long as he has it is like you've blocked Jordan and LeBron up until Chris Paul up until some guys who were drafted even a little later than that, who are current or will be all time great players. And he's blocked all those guys.
Starting point is 01:01:55 Yeah. I remember when I was trying to do my book, I didn't have him in the pyramid and he came close, but I just didn't have him. And it came down to the all NBA stuff and the lack of really only being on that one finals team, which he got traded into halfway during the season. With that said, they just had bad luck that year because they go against the 0-1 Lakers, who were one of the four or five
Starting point is 01:02:15 greatest playoff teams of all time. I think if they had caught the 0-2 Lakers, they might have actually been able to steal a series from them. But 0-1, nobody was beating that team. And they even got one game off them in overtime. But it's just that Kobe and Shaq together that year was just unstoppable. So that was his one chance and then it didn't happen.
Starting point is 01:02:35 And even then, like the interviews with him after the fact, seemed like he felt pretty good about how they did. You know, it's not like he's hanging his head. It's like you ran into what was kind of an unstoppable juggernaut. You stole a game. You acclimated yourself well. You can go home and be proud with what you did at the end of the day. I think Mutombo has always been one of these guys who has had very clear perspective on what matters. And what matters to him is competing and playing hard and embarrassing these guys. It's also like you got to live a full, rich life and benefit your community and the people around
Starting point is 01:03:04 you. And he's always been great about that. All right. Check out that piece that Rob wrote on TheRinger.com. And you can hear Rob on The Ringer NBA show and on the Prestige TV podcast, Breaking Down Slow Horses with Carl Anthony Towns, season five. We'll see how that goes. Good to see you, Rob. Thanks, Bill. RBC has helped millions of young Canadians turn their most likelies into most definities, making their ideas happen with scholarships, internships, and skill development, plus resources for artists and athletes. Learn more at rbc.com slash support youth. Think about something you're good at.
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Starting point is 01:04:12 Y'all afraid of ghosts? How about ghost peppers? It's the moment you've been waiting for. The ghost pepper sandwich is back at Popeyes. A buttermilk battered chicken breast served on a brioche bun with barrel cured pickles. And here's the best part. It's topped with a sauce made from ghost peppers and ancho chilies. If that doesn't send a chill of anticipation down your spine, nothing will. Get your ghost pepper sandwich today at Popeyes before it ghosts you for another year. All right, the hardest-working man in show business is here, Anthony DeBundo.
Starting point is 01:04:46 We're in the DeBundo Equinox right now. Will you explain what the DeBundo Equinox is? Yeah, I mean, the three sports I follow most closely with baseball and soccer and the NFL, all kind of converging in a two-month period of September and October where there's just way too much going on and way too much time staring at screens.
Starting point is 01:05:04 But I'm enjoying it. It's a hectic Tuesday afternoon and the baseball playoffs are here. Right. We're taping October. Yeah. We're taping this during it's two o'clock Pacific time. So baseball playoffs are happening right now. We're going to talk about them at the tail end and stare at more toward a
Starting point is 01:05:18 futures conversation. I wanted to talk football, quarter mark, storylines, trends, gambling stuff that you're staring at coming off of a pretty goofy week for although last night. So last night,
Starting point is 01:05:34 since we sound, I taped the pod. We learned that Miami is now a bottom three worst team in the league. We learned that Detroit's offense is the rumors of its demise were greatly exaggerated. Um, their defense didn't look as good as maybe we were thinking of Seattle at 38 first downs, but I just, I got to throw Miami at you before we do, uh, the trends and stuff. So people were saying how, see how important too is I thought Miami sucked before he got
Starting point is 01:06:02 injured. They shouldn't have been in Jacksonville. They had three points against Buffalo and we're getting waxed in that game before he got injured. They shouldn't have beaten Jacksonville. They had three points against Buffalo and were getting waxed in that game when he went out. And I think this would have happened to them either way this season. I don't think they're a playoff team. I don't think they were a good team.
Starting point is 01:06:14 And I think those alt-unders after week two, when it was like under seven and a half, was like plus 350 or maybe under six and a half was. But this is one of the four worst teams in the league. And I'm really mad I didn't get in on those futures. What'd you think of Miami last night? You know, I think we all kind of look back and had selective memory about what Tyler Huntley was
Starting point is 01:06:37 in Baltimore. I mean, those Baltimore teams like had elite defenses and kind of just ran the ball a bunch and he could kind of do some of the stuff Lamar did. But it wasn't like they were in shootouts or scoring a lot of points. And so I was surprised. I think he's probably better than Thompson. But I mean, let's be honest.
Starting point is 01:06:55 We're dealing with backups who are not backup level players. Like Huntley got cut at a training camp for a reason. So I think when you look at this Miami offense, it had already started to fall off before the end of last season. Yeah. And teams had started to figure them out a little bit. And there were some warning signs early.
Starting point is 01:07:12 I think they probably would have been around 10th or 12th offensively, even with Tua. But I mean, we're not going from Tua to just like average backup. We're going from Tua to unplayable quarterbacks. Defense is worse. Offensive line is already in shambles. And then
Starting point is 01:07:29 so Mike Lombardi calls Mike McDaniel the disc jockey because he's like, he says he's just playing just spinning discs with no rhyme or reason. He's just having a house party. He was so bad last night with Huntley and just whatever the hell game plan he had
Starting point is 01:07:46 against Tennessee. And you think about it in contrast to LaFleur and Green Bay with Malik Willis, where it's like, oh fuck, we got Malik Willis. He just showed up for the team three weeks ago. All right, well, let's try to figure out how we can win with this guy. And they completely changed our offense. He just did it. I don't know what Miami's offense was yesterday, but that was really, really awful. And I just don't see a path for them. I don't know what Miami's offense was yesterday, but that was really, really awful. And I don't... I just don't see a path for them. I don't see a path for their one of the seven AFC playoff teams.
Starting point is 01:08:12 Well, I mean, the big question mark is what is Tua's health situation. We have no idea. Because then he's out until at least week eight, right? Right. And by then, is it even worth... They're one in six, one in seven, two in six. Is it even worth bringing him back if they're6, 1-7, 2-6. Is it even worth bringing him back? If they're out of the race, I would say no.
Starting point is 01:08:28 Then there's the whole question about whether Tua should even play again. Obviously, that's not for us to decide, but the Dolphins are in a weird spot where their season could well be over by the time they bring back their quarterback that's had four concussions in two years. And they're pot committed to him and Waddle and Tyreek, so it's
Starting point is 01:08:43 not like they can trade anyone to trade that line. Like the Raiders are in a pretty good spot with the artist formerly known as Devante Adams where it's actually
Starting point is 01:08:53 pretty favorable for them to trade him. It's just like if you look at all the advanced metrics from the last five years you're trading for somebody who's clearly been worse
Starting point is 01:09:00 year by year. We'll see what happens. Okay. Give us your big your big trends. You this. You're like a midweek guy. You love getting in early on some bets. You've had some success in that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday range. So what are you noticing as we head toward week five? This is the first week with the bye weeks. We've got everybody. We have enough sample size for the data.
Starting point is 01:09:23 Give us four things that you care about right now. Yeah, well, your Super Bowl pick preseason was Texans-Lions, right? Yeah, I'm about to close the door on that one, I think. I wouldn't give up, but I think it's funny that the more things change, the more things stay the same for both teams. I mean, they look exactly the same as last year.
Starting point is 01:09:43 Detroit's offense figured out some red zone stuff last night, bullied a shorthanded Seattle team. Good call by you there. But their defense still looks super flawed. I mean, every competent quarterback they played last year kind of moved the ball on them. And, you know, Geno played out of his mind, right? But it's kind of the same trend.
Starting point is 01:10:03 And they're playing this aggressive man defense, and Arnold gets flagged every third play. They can't really seem to cover anybody. So are we not just going to have the same Lions conversation between now and January? That's the question to me. And then with Houston, it's the same thing, where
Starting point is 01:10:19 their offense is just hope C.J. Stroud can play hero ball and bail us out on the late downs, because right now the success rate by down, they're 27th on early downs, first and second. And there's been a huge change in how teams are playing them this year. Last year, they faced cover to the 27th highest rate in the league this year.
Starting point is 01:10:40 First and Jacksonville last week, who got torched by Buffalo playing all-man on Monday night, completely switched their defense and played all cover two. And Stroud had success moving the ball, but you look at the second half and all of a sudden they're punting every drive until the last one.
Starting point is 01:10:55 So things are weird with the Houston offense. That's the red flag for me is second half rolls around. It all of a sudden they couldn't move the ball anymore. I think until that last drive, which was the last three minutes of the game, they weren't doing jack shit. House made this point on Ringer Gambling
Starting point is 01:11:09 Show. How much of that is they thought they had Mixon as this huge power running back that was going to change the complexion of their team and now they just don't have a guy like that that might be part of it. Tank Dell, I don't think he played in the last game. Or if he did, he certainly didn't do anything, But I think he was hurt.
Starting point is 01:11:26 I feel like that team is not where they're going to be six, seven weeks from now. The Lions, though, I thought the defense... Gino shredded them. And it's either Detroit State isn't as
Starting point is 01:11:42 good as we thought, or maybe we just have to admit defeat with Geno, and he's just one of the best 10 quarterbacks of the week. How many times can he do this? And how many times can he make big plays down from behind in the fourth quarter? The guy just fucking make plays. At some point, you got to hand it to him.
Starting point is 01:11:59 No offensive line either. I mean, all you hear about is how bad the O-line is, and he's throwing it down the field. I mean, he's one of the few guys who still throws down the field, and I think that's another part of the second trend, which we'll get into, is nobody throws down the field anymore. Quarterbacks, everything's
Starting point is 01:12:13 underneath, check down, check down, check down. It's like NFL games are being played in phone booths. And Geno is finally being the guy that's like, he has three great receivers, and a good running back. But this offense is so electric to watch. It's rare you see a quarterback, Jared Goff, completes 100% of his passes and wasn't the
Starting point is 01:12:32 better quarterback in the game. Right. Well, you mentioned that downfield thing. So I think about this all the time with the Patriots having to sit through their games because we have a quarterback that can't throw the ball down the field, right? And the other team realizes that and they just move people up and they play all the bubble screens and short routes
Starting point is 01:12:50 and it becomes really hard. If you're a team that's just, you know, you don't really know where you are. Like even Miami last night. What's wrong with just chucking it downfield to Tyreek? Like, I don't know, twice a quarter. Seem to get a pass interference. I thought the Colts did that really effectively with the Steelers.
Starting point is 01:13:07 There was just a couple times where they took chances. They took a chance on the first play of the game. But I actually would think there's so much more upside to whipping the ball downfield versus like this short dink and dunk stuff. I don't really understand it. It feels like everybody's operating out of fear these days. Everybody's afraid to turn it over because that's what makes the headlines?
Starting point is 01:13:27 Right. And the offensive coordinator's afraid of doing something dumb, but you're just so much more like, everyone's infatuated with all this motion stuff too. That's another thing. And they would just much rather call a play where the receiver's sprinting and gets like a quick pass and he gets to run after the catch
Starting point is 01:13:43 versus just like whipping it downfield with them. I really liked when the Chiefs just said, fuck it, and threw it to Worthy. Just chucked it down for him. It's like, yeah, that's what you should do. The guy's fast. What's your next trend? Well, so that's the thing.
Starting point is 01:13:57 Underdogs are killing it, right? So underdogs of five and a half or more are 17, four, and one against the spread. And they're winning 11 out of 22 of one straight up. And of course, everybody's survivor pools are dead. You and Sal with their favorite teasers, they keep losing. And everybody's like, what is going on? How is this happening?
Starting point is 01:14:14 Well, 2003 is the last time that pass yards per game were this low. And that is combined with also having the highest completion rate in the history of the NFL. So it's exactly what we just talked about. That doesn't even make sense. Just everybody's like, let's go dink and dunk,
Starting point is 01:14:30 and that's the future of the league. But I don't think that's the future. It shortens the game, right? So there's longer possessions. Every possession takes a little longer because you're having these 10-play, 48-yard drives that take six minutes that end with a 52-yard field goal. And then the game gets shortened.
Starting point is 01:14:48 There's fewer possessions. So the number of drives per game is down. And so, like I said earlier, it's like playing NFL games in a phone booth. Nobody gets big plays. Nobody converts in the red zone anymore. And every game is just like between the 30s, trading field goal kicks. Occasionally, you get a touchdown. But if the scoring environment is going to play like this,
Starting point is 01:15:07 it absolutely favors the dogs to just stay close, especially when the dog is down six and they're plus six and a half. The favorite never puts the game away. It's always a salt the game away drive. They get just enough first downs. And so you're seeing all these underdogs do really well because every game, it's harder to separate. And so you're seeing all these underdogs do really well because every game is harder to separate.
Starting point is 01:15:27 And until last night with the Lions putting on a red zone clinic, even Detroit was struggling in the red zone and struggling to separate from these inferior teams. Well, and I would say there's one more piece of that. And I think about this with my man Doug Peterson, who is just putting on a clinic this season from a game management standpoint. But I think he peaked when he had the lead in the Houston game.
Starting point is 01:15:50 It's first down and goal from the four, and they just do nothing for three plays. Fourth and four goes for it. He's up three. There's only like 16 minutes left and does this QB draw play that you could have guessed if you had two seconds to think about it and they get stuff. But it seems like a lot of dumb game management this year,
Starting point is 01:16:09 more than usual. This feels like the year that the analytics and go for it and be aggressive has just parted ways with what makes sense to actually do during a game. And the whole point of, I'd rather be up six against Houston. Cool, what's going on in the fourth quarter up six, they got to score a touchdown to beat us. I just, I don't understand why everybody is so aggressive with offenses that aren't good. It's fine to be aggressive if you're the Lions.
Starting point is 01:16:36 Don't be aggressive if you're the Jaguars and you're already incompetent, you know? Yeah, I think it does come down to the red zone stuff. Like certain offenses, you're just executing better. And, you know, red zone I think it does come down to the red zone stuff. Certain offenses are just executing better and red zone stuff tends to be noisy, but this is a multiple year issue for Jacksonville in the red zone. And so they keep donating points. The thing is, you go up six, then Houston
Starting point is 01:16:56 gets more aggressive anyway. They probably still come down and win the game, but yeah, I mean, it's been a big topic of conversation here in Philly because Sirianni did take the points and then his defense got torched in that Monday night game week two. So it's kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't in some senses, but I just don't know how this changes. And I know people are joking about banning certain coverages
Starting point is 01:17:16 and all that stuff's ridiculous. I just don't know what the next iteration is, and I'm fascinated to find out how the passing game changes going forward. What if we had a rule you could only have three successful field goals during a game? I was thinking about this. That's a fun one. Like who's like, nope, we need more field goals. No, we need more.
Starting point is 01:17:37 Like, just like, that's it. You'd had your three. We don't get to see your kicker again. Now, and then it would be strategic about when to use them. And it's like, well, they got to save their last field goal for the end of the game. You can't use it here so you got to go for it.
Starting point is 01:17:49 I'm concerned about the kicking game. I mean, this is September football. Kicking is a lot easier. I mean, if kicking gets harder in November and December, then what are we going to do
Starting point is 01:17:57 for points? I mean, every game is going to end in the tens. You know, it's a scary proposition going forward. And usually,
Starting point is 01:18:03 offenses have the edge early in the season. Better weather, there's fewer injuries so that, you know, you a scary proposition going forward and usually offenses have the edge early in the season better weather uh there's fewer injuries so that you know you're not down to your backup offensive players although this year not as much but the defenses tend to gain an advantage as you go later in the season that doesn't seem like that trends well for how this league is going to look in november and december now it's trends well for baltimore and that there's certain teams that you can already tell are going to be good. January teams. Now Baltimore is the Lamar thing,
Starting point is 01:18:27 but, um, those physical bigger teams versus like, I don't know. We'll see with Washington. Washington feels like a classic. They're going to look great in September, October,
Starting point is 01:18:37 but then can you play this way when we get to, um, you had some, see, I mean, some of the stats with Washington's offense, those last two weeks, like all time crazy.
Starting point is 01:18:49 And I don't know, do you think it's sustainable? Where'd you land on it? Uh, I have, I mean, if you look up the history of cliff Kingsbury coach teams in the NFL, in the second half of the season,
Starting point is 01:18:59 it is alarming. Good example. That's the scary part for me. That's where I'm like, you know what? Let's wait. Also, let's wait. Uh, I think this week will be a good test for them. Cleveland's the scary part for me. That's where I'm like, you know what, let's wait. Also, let's wait.
Starting point is 01:19:05 I think this week will be a good test for them. Cleveland plays a much more aggressive defense. They're not as good as they were last year. And everyone's going to be on Washington. You and me in-house, we're texting about it. This is like the classic, classic everyone on Washington game.
Starting point is 01:19:18 Absolutely. But their serious success rate, just converting first down, first down, first down, first down. They're number one in the league by like three or 4% now, which is pretty wild. What's your last trend?
Starting point is 01:19:30 Chiefs' second half unders are back and better than ever. I think it's the most under-discussed betting thing. Everybody does betting content now, right? Trends this, trends that. Mahomes, when he's an underdog. Mahomes, when he's a small favorite. Andy Reid off the bye. You've heard all those trends
Starting point is 01:19:45 The Chiefs last year in the second half, they played 21 games 18 of them went under the second half spread and a lot of them weren't even close and it's not necessarily, I mean it's Steve Spagnuolo every time they need a third down stop they have a play designed to seemingly get the best result and I think there's also a little bit of an aura element where other teams kind of
Starting point is 01:20:08 just shit the bed when they get in those spots. They're like, oh shit, we got the Chiefs. Even if we score, like, oh, we got to get past Mahomes. And oh, we just ran a third goal end around and it didn't work. And now it's fourth and goal and they're bringing the house and we panic. And so all of these
Starting point is 01:20:23 things happen. And the first two games of the year, they went over. But now the last two games, they've allowed three total second half points against the Falcons and the Chargers. Last season, they allowed five or this season, they're allowing five and a half points per game in the second half. Last season, it was six and change. So it's just like, I'm just going to keep betting them every week. And this week, again, I think they'll
Starting point is 01:20:46 struggle offensively to get explosive without Rice, without Pacheco and just have to grind everybody down. It's so funny how the same trends
Starting point is 01:20:54 are the same trends and we always pretend they're not going to be the same trends. Like, oh, we're underdogs this week. They were like 11 and five.
Starting point is 01:21:02 11 and five. Something like that, right? So underdogs are, you just, if you're at a picks bowl, just pick the underdogs every week. You were like 11 and 5. 11 and 5. Something like that. So underdogs are... If you're at a picks pool, just pick the underdogs every week. You're doing great. You're probably in the top 5 of that picks pool. But yet we look at the
Starting point is 01:21:14 way and we're like, no, I can't take that dog. That would be terrible. And then you talk yourself out of this stuff. Another one is that Betts-Sal loves Steelers lose the first half win the game. I think that's already won twice in four weeks. Almost hit a third time. It almost hit a third time.
Starting point is 01:21:29 The snap hit fields in the face mask, but that'll hit at least three more times during the season. I actually really like that first half game bet. That was the only one we hit on Million Dollar Picks this week with the Lions' first half game, where you're basically, it's a parlay, but the parlay makes sense with the other part of the parlay, right? And if you're going into a game, like I went to that Lions game thinking, I think they're going to run the ball, establish some sort of dominance,
Starting point is 01:21:56 take the lead, and then maybe Geno comes back in the second half. I don't know, but I feel like that's how the game's going to go. I'd rather bet on that than Lions minus 190 or whatever it was. But are you a believer in those bets or am I a dumbass? Certain teams are certainly correlated. The Lions are usually good on the script, right? So early in the game, Johnson's got something cooked up for the first quarter. The Cowboys are interesting from the opposite perspective where they're so bad playing from behind because they're so light up front and they're so built to pass rush that maybe Dallas
Starting point is 01:22:27 is a team where first half outcome is even more correlated to the full game than most teams. Interesting. Looking ahead to week five, was there anything that jumped out to you from an oh no that the public, the sniff,
Starting point is 01:22:44 the scent of the public is just all over that one? Because my first instinct was nobody is taking Cleveland and I'm sure they're going to cover somehow. Yeah. We do paper chasers on Friday in the game. And I already told Austin Gale one of the games
Starting point is 01:22:59 I will be taking this week is Cleveland and Washington. And look, I might look stupid on Sunday when Deshaun throws another stinker up there, but the Washington commanders are the worst defense in the NFL, and they're laying three and a half. And the Browns defense isn't what it was, but it's still a good enough unit,
Starting point is 01:23:14 and they're going to give different looks than the very, very passive Cardinals and very, very passive Bengals did. I think this will be more of a challenge for Daniels than the last couple weeks have been. Super excited crowd. Meanwhile, there were some kind of shocking Deshaun stats from week four that I wasn't there was one advanced thing I read where he was the number two quarterback
Starting point is 01:23:36 in week four by a bunch of different metrics. Had Cooper dropped a touchdown on him. There was another one where he had a long touchdown but it got called back from a pretty dubious hold. But I just watch him now glass half empty. And he was probably better in that game, which I watched. I had it on one of the TVs. But I'm always assuming he's going to do something stupid at this point. But he was pretty good in that game.
Starting point is 01:24:00 The biggest concern I have is that the Browns are going to sabotage him. Other players know he stinks and they're concerned that they want to get him out so they're quite quitting on him. Alligator arms it. It didn't look as bad last week and now he gets to face the worst defense, worst secondary in the NFL. Are you a
Starting point is 01:24:18 bet on a game with two bad teams guy? Because I am not. It depends. Like Austin doing that on paper chasers. I was getting so mad. I was like, why are you going near this game? This is like, you might as well go to roulette and bet on black or red. Like there's no rhyme or reason to this.
Starting point is 01:24:32 Yeah, Dolphins Patriots. Like that will not have- That's the one this week. Pats minus one and a half Dolphins. I will not have any money or action on that game. Stay away. Just stay away. There's no upside of that.
Starting point is 01:24:41 Patriots are favored, which I don't think you expected Patriots to be laying points too often this year. Probably is going to be the last time. We haven't had, I was talking to somebody, we haven't had a quarterback as bad as Brissette since Mark Wilson, who was playing probably 10 years before you were born in the late 80s.
Starting point is 01:25:00 He was this former Raiders guy. We got him in, he started like five, six games, and he was just horrible. Brissett seems like a great guy, but he can't move and he can't throw the ball deep. He has to be the easiest guy to game plan against in the league.
Starting point is 01:25:16 Just keep sending the house. Don't worry about him throwing over the top. He'll never be able to do it. All he's going to do is throw a check down shit. That's it. I feel bad for him. I think he's in a bad spot. He had good numbers the last couple years when he came in, in much more
Starting point is 01:25:31 dynamic offenses. He's got no... Like you said, he's kind of a statue back there. Their offensive line was bad to start, and then they all got injured. The last two weeks, they have no chance. I think he got a hard shake last two weeks, it's like, they have no chance. So, I mean, I think he would have, you know, he got a hard shake out
Starting point is 01:25:48 of it, and it's difficult, but they need to get somebody more dynamic back there and maybe, I don't think it'll be this week, but maybe next week. It's the most polarizing Boston sports conversation right now, the Drake May thing. People are now in two camps, and if you think he should play,
Starting point is 01:26:04 you're basically supporting like elder abuse and name, name seven other terrible things. It's like, you're, you're going to ruin his career. It's turned into that. And I don't, I just can't,
Starting point is 01:26:15 it's really going to be hard to watch Jacoby for 10 more weeks. You know, it's not going to be hard as the baseball playoffs, which as they're happening right now, who's winning the game that, that right now is that the winning the game right now? Is that the Astros, bottom of the ninth? Okay.
Starting point is 01:26:30 They're rallying. You were telling House and I to just short the Tigers and Royals, the two fake playoff teams, and now all of a sudden we've down 1-0. They're both winning. Your big future take is the San Diego Padres plus 550 to win the National League.
Starting point is 01:26:44 Now we're taping this before the games tonight, but what is Diego Padres plus 550 to win the National League. Now we're taping this before the games tonight, but what is your Padres case? Yeah. So, I mean, me and everybody else, everybody's on the Padres bandwagon. So it does feel a little public, but I mean, since the trade deadline, AJ Preller is the general manager of the Padres and he is the most aggressive general manager in the sport. And because they're so good at scouting, they just constantly have a good farm system that people want to buy their prospects. And so they just keep selling the farm
Starting point is 01:27:10 and then replenishing the farm and then going all in. He just keeps doubling down. He's kind of on tilt at the blackjack table. And this year, I think he's actually put together the best team. Wow. It might actually work because they made the big Soto move two years ago, but their pitching was pretty bad.
Starting point is 01:27:26 And they got exposed by the Phillies in the playoffs that year. And then last year, they had a huge payroll, but there was some locker room stuff going on. It didn't quite come together. And this year, they have, since the trade deadline, the number one bullpen in terms of quality of stuff. They're top three in ERA. And they got a really friendly draw here
Starting point is 01:27:46 because of all the chaos on Monday. The Braves are pitching A.J. Smith Shauver and Bryce Elder on Tuesday night. And look, it's baseball. It's one game, three game series. They could still win. But Smith Shauver has pitched four innings in the big leagues this year. His only playoff career outing was last year in Philly. He gave up three straight homers.
Starting point is 01:28:03 He's 21 years old. and they don't have a bullpen behind him. The Braves, who would have been really tough with Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach and Max Fried, now it's like they have nobody left for this first game. The Padres got an
Starting point is 01:28:18 edge there, and then if they get to the weekend, which if the chalk holds, we could get Mets, or if the teams I'm hoping win, we could get Mets-Phillies, we could get Padres-Dod chalk holds, we could get Mets, or if the teams I'm hoping win, we could get Mets-Phillies, we could get Padres-Dodgers, and we could get Yankees-Orioles this weekend. That's a pretty awesome round
Starting point is 01:28:33 of series. But Padres-Dodgers, the Padres won the season series with the Dodgers, and the Dodgers' starting pitching has fallen apart. I mean, they every year have the same problem. Glass now is done for the year. Of course, Otani's not pitching. And they were hoping to get Kershaw right, but that doesn't look like that's happening.
Starting point is 01:28:50 So they have two guys, Yamamoto and Flaherty. And after that, it could be a couple of rookies starting at the back end of their rotation. They just don't have the depth. Padres got two of their starters back in September that looked pretty good, Darvish and Musgrove. So, well,
Starting point is 01:29:06 they also play the Dodgers all the time. Like that. Nobody's less afraid in baseball, the team that's in your division that you've been playing forever. I have Dodger fans in my life who are terrified of the Padres. They're like, they, they're like,
Starting point is 01:29:17 we're just, they're just not afraid of us anymore. The Red Sox got to this point 20 years ago in 03 and 04 with the Yankees where the Yankees had this mystique, but we were just playing them every year for a million games. And at some point, Rivera stopped being as scary as he was, probably if you weren't seeing him as much. Who do you talk baseball with as one of the only 27 and under baseball fans on the planet?
Starting point is 01:29:42 Is there some sort of Reddit board where you guys all exist? What happens? Well, if it's Phillies baseball, I talk about it on the Ph. Is there some sort of Reddit board where you guys all exist? What happens? Well, if it's Phillies baseball, I talk about it on the Philly Special with Shiel Kapadia. Shameless plug right there. Are there other young baseball fans on the East Coast?
Starting point is 01:29:55 Or is it just you? What happens? For sure. I mean, it's very regional. You know this. And so when I talk shit... But you actually know everything about all the teams.
Starting point is 01:30:04 Most people at this point baseball's turned in and you only know what's going on with your team with some exceptions yeah I mean at this point it's you know you check in with people you know like how's your team doing alright we're doing well I see you're coming up on the Phillies schedule like the Yankees are coming to town like what are we thinking of Garrett Cole
Starting point is 01:30:20 you know how's he feeling this week but you know there's still a good number of people, especially those of us who bet on sports because we're in the minutiae all summer and doing that. So I talk with those people a lot. And yeah, there's more 20-something. I'm in a 16-team
Starting point is 01:30:35 Dynasty Fantasy League that has minor league rosters. And so those people are the most hard-o baseball fans you'll ever meet, more than I am and so that league kind of keeps me going through the summer i'm in an al keeper league which same thing i know every i know all the guys in the al i just don't i couldn't tell you one nl thing that's going on how many tigers could you name oh man i mean we had joe flaherty got traded to
Starting point is 01:31:01 the dodgers we have what's his name henry malloy. We had him, we had their catcher, Jake Rogers. In 192. Yeah. It wasn't very good. I mean, that was one of the reasons we finished in last place. But yeah, the baseball, I was talking to somebody about this this week. I really think they should split season it, would be my recommendation if they brought me in. How would that work? I would just have two 75 game seasons. And if you were able to win your division or whatever, maybe it's two divisions, not three,
Starting point is 01:31:36 however it works, but some sort of stakes for the first 75 and then other stakes for the second 75. And maybe some sort of overall prize where if you were the number one, you didn't win either of those, but you were still for the second 75. And maybe some sort of overall prize where if you were the number one, you didn't win either of those, but you still had the most wins. You also made it.
Starting point is 01:31:51 But some way that is just better than this, hey, show up in mid-September and you haven't missed anything. I had people in my life who had no idea Otani was going for a 50-50. And these are people that watch their own baseball team. I know this
Starting point is 01:32:08 makes the baseball people mad, but I do... I think basketball should think about a split schedule and just do 40 games, 40 games, but something to split it up. I just think that's where everybody's attention span is. Football is the only sport that's
Starting point is 01:32:24 figured it out. The in-season tournament is a great idea. It is. And in like three or four years, it's going to be a big thing. Like I already have made plans. I'm not the biggest NBA fan, but like I have already made plans with friends.
Starting point is 01:32:35 Like we are getting tickets, Sixers, Knicks, in-season tournament in November. We are excited for it. It has just a little more juice and there's no history right now. So like nobody cares that the Lakers won it last year or whatever. But in three to four or five years, it might actually matter.
Starting point is 01:32:50 Well, the thing that... So getting Otani in the World Series, I think, would be the best possible thing that could happen. Otani versus the Yankees would then be the best of the best. Just for bringing in casual people and people that whatever... The longer Otani goes, the better it is.
Starting point is 01:33:07 Because this could be their gateway to bring some people back. But otherwise, this is the shit that happens. It just feels like, at least I say it, I've talked about this before with my son's demo. It just feels like UFC has kind of replaced baseball in some ways. It's grabbing all the young kids. And nobody under 50, but if you're under 25, it's a
Starting point is 01:33:30 pretty good battle. Yeah. I mean, certainly trying to get my friends who are maybe really diehard Eagles fans, but they'll tune in for the Phillies. Yeah, like Phillies playoff games or whatever. That's about it it's tough
Starting point is 01:33:45 but you know it's a labor of love we have to try to convince people to join our team and when the team is good like there's there's a certain buzz that the city has
Starting point is 01:33:54 that's very special no question alright well good luck on the Equinox how long does it last what is this like all the way through October roughly a month
Starting point is 01:34:02 yeah yeah college football thank god you're not into that. No, I did watch George Alabama, but that's about all you'll get from me. Premier League. So basically Sunday is like a 17-hour day for you?
Starting point is 01:34:15 Yeah. This Sunday, I've got meeting up with some friends in the morning to go to a bar to watch Tottenham play. And then we've got NFL Sunday. I have tickets to the Phillies game. That's Sunday night or afternoon. So it's going to be like 12 straight hours. Mainline, just straight energy into my veins.
Starting point is 01:34:35 I'm very excited for it. October's still the best. I remember doing a mailbag column about this. God only knows how many years ago about October versus April. I think those are my two favorite months. I still love when the first round of the basketball playoffs is
Starting point is 01:34:48 and when baseball is starting and the NFL draft. That's pretty great too. Especially if we have the right baseball teams, it's pretty good. All right, Dibundo, you can listen to him all week on Ringer Gambling Show and read his excellent column on TheRinger.com, but then
Starting point is 01:35:04 Paper Chasers with Austin Gale. What's Austin's record now? He's four and eight. We've both gone, he's gone one and two every week, and I've gone two and one every week. So we're becoming a little bit predictable. We got to mix it up. Hopefully we keep the winners coming.
Starting point is 01:35:19 I told you I was going to text him and tell him that we had to pull him off the show if he didn't go 2-1 or better this week. It was a prank, but I think he actually would have lost his mind if I sent him the text. So I decided not to. I didn't want to have him have a meltdown. But I know he takes it
Starting point is 01:35:35 very seriously. So now I'll hear it on the podcast. 4-8. He's got to win four straight just to hit 500. Well, good luck to him. He's got time. Long season.
Starting point is 01:35:47 Paper chases. Good to see you, Dibundo. Thank you. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Jesse Lopez and Steve Cerruti today. Thanks to Dibundo and thanks to Rob Mahoney.
Starting point is 01:36:00 And I will see you on this feed on Thursday. Don't forget, new rewatchables at Blair Witch Project. Don't forget YouTube channel, Ringer Movies or the Bill Simmons channel for all the YouTube videos and episodes from this podcast on Thursday. I don't have a few years
Starting point is 01:36:26 left in me on the wayside on the first I never said I don't have a few years left in me Must be 21 plus and president in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino
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