The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Mount GOATmore and Best 21st-Century Teams With Zach Lowe, Plus Brady’s Brainfart and Million Dollar Picks

Episode Date: October 9, 2020

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by ESPN's Zach Lowe to talk about the Heat-Lakers NBA Finals series and the upcoming Game 5, speculate about Finals MVP, perhaps end the NBA GOAT debate once and for all, and play out an eight-seed "21st-Century NBA Championship Team" tournament. Finally, Bill shares some thoughts on the Buccaneers' loss to the Bears in which Tom Brady forgot what down it was during the final drive and gives his Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 5. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tonight on the BS Podcast, my old Grantland teammate, Zach Lowe, is coming on to talk about the 2020 NBA Finals, and we're going to play a game that will enrage a lot of basketball fans. I'm also doing million-dollar picks. That's all next. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest-rated sportsbook is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good.

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like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by TheRinger.com and The Ringer Podcast Network, where we are still cranking out all kinds of podcasts. Don't forget about the R2C2 podcast with CeCe Sabathia and Ryan Rucco. They came on late after a Yankee game this week. It's really fun hearing CeCe talk about the Yankees and getting frustrated about some of these games and some of the moments and things like that. I'm starting to get into the baseball playoffs,

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alright my old Grantland teammate, Zach Lowe, is here. We're taping this. It is 3 o'clock Eastern time, one day before Game 5 of the 2020 Finals. I wrote that footnote title column like eight years ago because I don't like asterisks for titles, but I do like footnotes. I think we have to add little footnotes. Miami, Dragic going down, Adebayo missing two games. I feel like ultimately from what we've seen

with the size of the Lakers, I think they win anyway. And in general, I don't see the giant footnote here, but I am going to always wonder what it would have been like if the healthy Miami team that we saw in round three, what that could have looked like potentially, especially with Dragic. Where did you land on that question? This is the third finals in the last six years where injuries have completely screwed up the series, right?

Like last year, Golden State's decimated by the end. First Cleveland-Golden State series love and kairi are out uh for almost the entirety in kairi's case um in the entirety in love's case i just like it's a fact of life man all you can do is if you really went back through every playoff run ever you'd find an injury of some import uh i i do i think the heat are a great story and a great team and i do wish we had it is a bummer after all this time that we haven't seen their real team. But I don't...

Like you said, it's a footnote. Everything's got a footnote, but I don't... I just think this is how it works. One thing we didn't see from the Heat in those first five games, and the thing that I thought made them so dangerous in the first three rounds, and especially against Boston,

is they could be being outplayed and then Robinson would hit four threes in a quarter or Dragic would hit two contested step back 28 footers or Tyler Harrow would either take over a quarter in the case of that one Boston playoff game the entire game why do you think that hasn't happened yet in any of these five games how did they lose that that kind of irrational confidence heat check factor do you think that hasn't happened yet in any of these five games? How did they lose that kind of irrational confidence heat check factor? Do you think it's nerves or is it something the Lakers are doing? I don't know. I mean, like Robinson, I feel like you're right.

He usually has a game and a series where he gets off, but I feel like teams have done a good job. He's had a weird playoff where I feel like teams have done a good job containing him and yet his impact is still enormous because he just runs around so hard. And it's such unpredictable ways that like if he takes four shots, he's still enormously impactful. Hero had the one random game. Right. Other than that, he's been just decent. And Dragic is obviously hurt. You know, I guess you have to credit the Lakers' perimeter defense, right? I mean, I think their guys have done

a really good job chasing Robinson and Hero both, and when you have LeBron and AD ready to switch out and whatever, like, it's hard to do. Maybe it's tomorrow night, though. Maybe we still get one. Series isn't over yet. It was my favorite quality of that team, and the most frustrating quality about them

actually having my favorite team play them in a the most frustrating quality about them actually having my favorite team play them in a playoff series where you feel like things are going great. And you look at it, you're like, how are we not up 20? Oh, cause Duncan Robinson made four threes in six minutes or, oh man, those Iguodala, those four threes out of nowhere. What the fuck happened there? And these little moments that they would have, I thought they looked nervous in game one and game two, and they didn't look like themselves. And I know they had injuries, um, in game one that threw them off. And then game two, I just think, uh, they didn't look like themselves. The thing that I was surprised by, they, they weren't winning those 50 fifties anymore. Um, they weren't, they weren't getting their hands on

balls, things like that. And even game three was a weird game. Butler was just unbelievable. I mean, that was the reason they won. Game four, they actually looked like the Heat, and yet they lost. And I don't know if I'm coming out of that game, I'm like, man, we actually did everything we wanted in that game. What is the next adjustment now?

Well, it's funny you say that, because I have a preview column coming up tomorrow. They wanted me to preview game five. And basically, that's what I wrote, is I feel like every playoff series reaches a point where the equilibrium has been reached. All the adjustments are done. You got little tweaks here and there, but all the big moves have been made. And it's just my best and your best.

And we all know what's coming. And yeah, I'm going to, you know, add like fun wrinkles on top of this and that, but like, we all know it. And I feel like game four was that point in the series. And I don't know, I think they could have some adjustments, like little adjustments here or there, but barring a return for Dragic, which like seems unlikely, I think. I don't know that there's a big swing here, but I agree with you. Game four, I thought the whole game,

the Heat are going to steal this game. I just kept feeling like they're going to steal it, they're going to steal it, and then Butler had that corner three that would have put them up late in the game, and it didn't go in, and then KCP hit a three, and that was kind of the beginning of the end. But I thought, credit to the Heat,

that I thought the whole game they were going to win. I think they thought they were going to win. That was the first time they really carried themselves like the Heat. And it was funny because Butler missed that corner three, and it was the same right corner of the court where he made that dagger three against the Celtics. And as a Celtics fan, I've just watched this whole series going, ugh, really, Hero? Now you're going to miss that one?

Really, Robinson? Like, why this round? Why not a round to go? It's so frustrating. Big missed opportunity for the Celtics. Not missed opportunity. He took it from them. But I do think they would have given the Lakers a good series. And I probably would have picked the Lakers to win that series,

but I think it would have been a good series. But it's funny. We were texting the other day about that game four that we thought the Heat might steal can you imagine like I text you I think it's the biggest gap in like post-game narrative based on the result in the in like the recent history of the finals like if the Heat win that game and it's 2-2 it's like DEFCON 1 like can LeBron blow this what does this mean for his legacy? He's not the GOAT. And now it's like, ho-hum, the Lakers took control of the series. I felt like he sensed that.

Maybe not the GOAT narrative part, but there was a moment in the third quarter where Solo and I talked about it on Tuesday night when he had that look, that real urgent look. Not scared, urgent, and was really, really holding everyone accountable. He took that long 28-footer that I felt like he had to make to swing the momentum in the game and to give his team a little confidence.

And I really liked how he played. I was thinking a lot. I went back and read some of the stuff I wrote about him in 2010 and 11. And you think about that Dallas series. I thought Cuban had an interesting quote about it. Actually, I think I read it today about how he was talking about LeBron's basketball IQ and how it's evolved and how in 2011, they were basically able to break his brain. And a couple of those games were on during the

pandemic hiatus when they're just showing old basketball games. And you can see him thinking, and it was like that in person too, where he's just like, I can't solve this. I know what they're doing. I don't have the answer. And what's been interesting the whole playoffs, but especially this series, they start out with the zone. LeBron just solves it. Then they, they game four, they figure out how to defend Davis. They're getting out on the role players. They're letting certain guys shoot that they want to shoot. And LeBron, you could see him in that second half, like, all right, here's what they're doing. I'm solving it. Um, how important do you

think 2011 was to him? Because I feel like that was the pivotal two weeks of his career. When we look at the totality of it now, well, it's also, as luck would have it, I've spent much of the pandemic and much of the last month watching old Jordan games and old LeBron games. Kind of, you know, because of The Last Dance, I had a bunch of podcasts about Jordan. And then the decision anniversary came, and I wanted to write about the Heat teams.

Yeah. And you watched that 2011 series. And I watched a couple of the games at least. I did too. The difference in spacing, like they've got Anthony and Haslam out there together here and there, like there's just no space for LeBron to do anything. Yeah. And you come away from that thinking, man,

if they hadn't moved to Bosch at center, I'm not sure like what the future of that, like how, if they had moved to Bosh at center, I'm not sure what the future of that, how many rings they get. And LeBron in that series, it's the biggest difference between him and Jordan is that Jordan has this sheen of perfection and LeBron has this huge black mark on his career. He had eight points in one of those games.

Remember that stat? It was his lowest usage rate of his career, not just playoffs, but regular season in that game four. Yeah, that's the game he had eight points. You know what Jordan's career low in an NBA Finals game is? It's got to be like 21. 22. Yeah.

It's just totally... Now, in terms of his importance to his career, yeah. I mean, look, I guess he had two choices, which is either sulk and let this get in my head forever. Right. And every time I get to a big stage, it's in my head or just move on and read, reinvent parts of my game. And he chose the latter. So I guess in that sense, it's a turning point, but historically it's still, it's, it's really weird. It's still really weird. So the year before was weird too. Yeah. Magic had that point, right?

After the 84 finals, they're calling him Tragic Johnson. And that was kind of a come to Jesus moment for him. And if you look at 85 through 90, he's basically the best player in the league, that whole stretch. Well, ironically, Dirk had that after the We Believe Warriors.

Remember Dirk went to the Australian Outback and grew a beard and contemplated life for a while. Nobody knew where he was, and then he came back stronger for it. That's what makes it fun. That might have been the worst example of it. That actually almost broke him. I mean, it took him, I would say, a couple years to come back from that, and then they had to fit the right team around him.

But yeah, Dirk, that was a four-year odyssey to get to that point. He ends up leaving the court after they win because he knows he's just going to completely break down. Doesn't want the cameras on him. But yeah, I think a lot of great players went through that. And LeBron, the 11 finals, and then the Celtics in 2012,

really just punching him and challenging his manhood and all the things that happened there. I don't think I've ever asked you about this. Maybe we have. Did you think the Celtics were going to win that series when they were up 3-2? I think you were at game six, weren't you? We had talked about that game. But did you in your soul feel like, holy shit, we're actually going to do this?

Or did you think, I'm so scared that LeBron is going to come out and do what he ended up doing? I 100% thought they were going to win. And everybody in the building did too. That was the most electric non-finals crowd I think I'd been in since the Bird era. Because people really felt like we were breaking the heat. They lose the year before.

And then in 2012, they're the favorites again. And LeBron has an MVP year. But then the Celts go up 3-2, and they just seem tougher than them. And they were really, they were talking so much shit. And that team had such a swagger. You know, it was an older team. It certainly wasn't the best Celtics team. But between the big three and Rondo, who was officially Rondo at that

point, just real, real macho swagger to them. And they felt like they broke LeBron. And then he comes out for that game and annihilates them. And you knew pretty much immediately, you knew within a half hour. I don't want to get on a LeBron tangent now, but that's what makes part of what makes his career so interesting is like and the heat so interesting is that every kind of dynastic team usually has a moment or a playoff run where they just feel like totally unbeatable like just unbeatable and the heat never had that like even the next season when they went again pacers take them to seven like that and the pacers seemed like wasn't that good they just never never, the Heat never had,

their run when they looked unbeatable was that 2012-13 season when they won 27 in a row. But then in the playoffs, they had to slog. They just never had a playoff run where it was like, oh, this is inevitable. They're going to kill everybody. I was going to say, weirdly, the streak became the legacy of that team.

Yeah. Because that streak was amazing as it was happening. They were killing teams. The spotlight was a modern spotlight, right? Social media is in play at that point. The whole basketball internet's in play, the 24 seven sports cultures in play and they're killing teams. And I went back and read what I wrote about that recently. And I'd forgotten that there was the 30th game of that streak would have been Spurs Sunday night on NBA TV and the Spurs were the second best team.

And everybody was so focused on, holy shit, Spurs heat, heat going for 30. That's going to be the biggest regular season game in 50 years. And then Chicago, really, either Luau Dang, Jimmy Butler, Noah, and LeBron. I wrote about in that game, LeBron went to a level in that game on both ends that I don't think I've ever seen before. Remember he started guarding Heinrich and he was letting Heinrich go by him

so he could block his layup from behind, which I had never seen maybe in like high school games or something. But you talked about that when you wrote that heat piece recently, how many months ago was that? I don't know. Time has lost all meaning. Yeah. So it must've been July. There's two things with that heat team that I think have gotten lost historically. One was how incredible of a two-way part of LeBron was at point. Where, you know, and I'm guilty of this too. I always mention Pippen. I mentioned Kawhi. Probably Iguodala third as greatest perimeter defenders.

But I think LeBron during that two-year stretch when he could guard Tony Parker. He could guard Paul George. He could guard Dirk DeWitzke. Like he basically could guard everybody from 6'11 to 6 feet and was an unbelievable help defender. And I kind of forget that. I got to remind myself to remember that. I watched a couple of the

2013 Finals games last week. He's everywhere. Everywhere. I mean, that's like barely even an exact... I know it's hyperbole, but it's like barely hyperbole. He is all over the place, disrupting everything. And when he really gets into Tony Parker, it's like you feel bad for Tony Parker. Like, what is it?

Can this, this is me and he's being mean to him. Right. It's a little like when Davis was guarding Butler on some of these possessions where you're like, all right, if I'm Jimmy Butler, what do I do? I'm not taking Anthony Davis up the dribble. What's my answer? How about shoot an open 20-footer? Or an open three? I mean, when did he come to

hard to Rosen where he's just like absolutely refusing to even look at the rim? I don't understand why that happened. He obviously had a mindset. It's going to shift in this game. The other thing with LeBron that year, and I went to game six because I was doing TV that year, and I remember that fourth quarter he played when they're down 3-2 in game six.

And he plays, I think I even wrote it at the time, like the greatest nine-minute stretch of basketball I think I'd ever seen anyone play. He was literally everywhere. He wouldn't let them lose. And then finally ran out of steam near the end. Nobody was helping him. Misses the big three.

And if the Spurs get the rebound, it's over. But I still feel like that streak probably took too much out of them. And I think the same thing happened with the Warriors in 2016. I know it sounds like an excuse, but when you're playing basically hardcore playoff games during the regular season, like that game after game with the bullseye and the crowd and the energy of it. And you've got to go all out. I just, that's not what the regular season is for.

And I think it really hurt both of those teams. Well, this is the flip side of the Jordan being of the, of the, what if Jordan doesn't go play baseball thing is I think Kerr has talked about this a lot. Steve Kerr, like, do they get the second three Pete? Yeah. Michael, because you see, even in the last dance, he's worn out by the end of the second one. You know what I mean? Like it just takes such a toll on you. So everyone's like, well, they could have seven and one in the finals or eight, no in the finals. And all the people on those bull teams have said, yeah, I wouldn't like draw the through line that directly.

The 95 team would not have beaten anybody because they didn't have the rebounding at that point. That was the year where they didn't have the Horace Grant. Right. Or Rodman. Yeah, it just wasn't happening. The other thing about the 2013 Heat that I think got lost is I think the narrative now,

especially with casual basketball fans or medium casual basketball fans, is that the Warriors invented small ball. And it's been really a 21st century evolution, right? You could even go back to the early 2000s and those Jim O'Brien Celtics teams. Really? Yeah, there's a crazy Baron Davis year

for the Hornets where he shoots like 800 threes. Then you have the Warriors in the mid-2000s. You have the 08 Celtics had that lineup with Posey and House and Ray Allen and Pierce when they could go small. And they're basically playing the way people play now. The Heat were the first team

in 2013, the first really good team that was like, this is who we are. When we do this, it opens up all of these things. When Bosh plays the five, LeBron has more space. When we can play Miller and Ray Allen at the same time and have Wade roam in the baseline with LeBron and Bosh, it's unstoppable.

Nobody can figure out how to defend it. And I think that's been lost, that they were kind of the first, like, truly successful small ball of the time team, right? Well, you have the Suns, right, that had Amari at center when they would put Marion at the four and Amari at the five. And people argue, well, they didn't win the championship, so you can't anoint them as the quote successful one. But, you know, the difference is when Miami had all four of Bosh, LeBron, Wade and Battier on the floor. Yeah, Battier, I forgot to mention it. Those are four elite defensive players. Even Wade, as his knees start to go, is still smart enough and can get up enough. Like when he has to at the rim, that he was a really good defender.

And like that was always like so many teams that went small with sacrifice defense to do it. And they did not sacrifice defense to do it. Do you remember we saw batty at the finals that year and he wasn't playing anymore and, and he was pissed, but he, it was basically like,

don't use this, but I'm pissed. And then he ended up, I think in game seven came up massive. Six, maybe seven. Yeah. They threes, six threes, six, maybe seven. Yeah, they took them out of the attic. But that's what happens with some of these finals runs.

And I'm sure we're going to remember this Lakers thing, assuming they win, where you're like, man, remember that Lakers team where Rondo came out of cobwebs and was suddenly making impact crunch time plays. And Caldwell Pope, who we made fun of for three years, was this essential Game 4 guy. That's what happens every year, though. They don't win Game 4 with an average KCP game.

I mean, maybe somebody else steps up, but everything else is the same. They need a really good KCP game to sneak that game out. So Game 5, quickly. Actually, let's take a break. WeCP game to sneak that game out. So game five quickly. Actually, let's take a break. We'll come back and talk game five. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache,

you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. What's the feeling of fall? It's finally catching the sunrise. And not because you woke up early. No, you woke up nice and late.

And you know what? The sun waited. Then you went and got what you love from Starbucks. The new pecan crunch oat latte and new baked apple croissant and enjoyed that warm apple filling and those nutty flavors with rich brown buttery notes while the sun rose just for you. That's the feeling of fall and it's only at Starbucks. Game five. I'm not willing to just say Miami's losing because I think that team has so much character. That is not a we will roll over team. I think, I remember, like, a good example

is the 2012 finals when OKC was toe-to-toe with Miami those first four games and really could have been up 3-1 if, like, three plays had gone differently. But by the time we got to game five, I think all of us felt it. It was like you kind of missed your shot.

And I think in this one, I don't 100% feel that way because of how tough Miami is. This is the quote-unquote heat culture that's been everyone's been beating in the ground the last few weeks. It's not a rollover team. I don't expect them to roll over.

Um, but the, the subplot for me is what does Davis have in store for this game? Because after game two, I was really recalibrating my pyramid list, trying to figure out like, is this guy in the top 40 now? Like this guy's, this is one of the most dominant two-way performances by a big man we've seen in the last 30 years in a playoff run. And then he disappears in game three completely. Game four had a really important, I thought, defensive impact,

but offensively, they unlocked him a little bit. I rewatched most of game four yesterday to write this column, and he was, like, even better on defense than I remember from watching it in real time to the point that I think because of game three people kind of ended the finals MVP debate both because Miami ones who was premature and because LeBron was so much better than AD in that game I think it we'll see what happens in game five like I think his defense on Butler was so essential to

them squeaking out game four that he still has a case. That's where I was getting to. I think he has a case too. I don't think he'll win because this is the LeBron generation. And I also, if you're the best player on a team, I feel like you should win the finals MVP unless something dramatic happened. The 07 Spurs still doesn't sit right with me, but Duncan was

the best player in the league that whole year. Parker got hot for a couple games against a terrible Cavs team, and then that's how it goes down for the rest of eternity. But I think as important as LeBron was, especially from an urgency standpoint,

some of the stuff he did in the second half, I still felt like Davis was the most important player of that game. I watched the second half too. He was just everywhere. It was like a vintage Garnett after seven cups of coffee kind of defensive performance. And he just

swallowed up everything. And I've never seen a team pass up that many layups. They had layups. They were so nervous about him. It was like watching, you know, vintage Dikembe Mutombo or something. He's only 6'11". I was surprised. You still need LeBron

to orchestrate everything, though. You know what I mean? You still need someone to get everyone in their places and run the sets. And obviously LeBron does way more than that. But, you know,

and LeBron, like, you were saying before how LeBron sensed, like, we need this game. There was a play with like six minutes left in the fourth quarter where the Lakers had a defensive breakdown and he was pissed about it. Oh, yeah. And they brought the ball up and he ran a pick and roll with whoever was Duncan Robinson's man, I think. And he split the hedge so hard, like put his head down, like threw the ball in front of him almost, and went up and powered through and end one. It was angry LeBron

kind of reserving his energy for when he... But that was a moment where he was like, this game is now at stake, and I'm pissed, and I'm fucking scoring. And it was like one of those vintage, like he revs it up back to 2012 levels for just a bit.

There was another play. Kuzma screwed up and they got a fast break lip and LeBron was furious. And I think they called a timeout or a 20 second date to stop it. And he came back down and the ball went to Kuzma in the corner and Kuzma made it. He made a three. I think it was in the fourth quarter. And it was one of those shots where it's like he missed it. I'm not sure we ever see him again. He might be in the woods like the Russian,

the Russian and the Sopranos. The combination of the defensive breakdown and the missed three, that would have been it. We never would have seen him again. But he actually came through. I do feel like he's been able to bring out better versions of some of these guys. I don't think Caldwell Pope is a good serviceable basketball

player, but he's looked like it in the finals. He's the kind of swing man that I'm not crazy about, but he's been hitting threes at a decent rate, and he plays really hard. And at some point, that's enough if you're with LeBron. I think he's been really impressive attacking off the dribble when they run him off

the arc, and he had five assists. He's been making plays. The one I did not see coming like at all and in fact i thought like maybe he's washed up is marquise morris like it i was completely wrong about marquise morris did not see this coming at all were you completely wrong at one point i was like maybe they should try jared dudley like in the first round i was like maybe jared dudley should it's like and marquise morris is like i don't know what he's turning into, but dude's making shots and he's in the right places defensively. And kudos to Rob Palenka because I did not see that one coming to fruition.

I'm looking at his stats. I agree with you. I thought he was washed. The thing is, it's hard to assess when every single three that somebody is taking is open by five feet. You know, like so in that game, it felt like Morris was having a huge impact. He was two for eight, two for seven from three. All seven threes are wide open.

But I think what I like, and I'm agreeing with you, what I liked about it is he seemed confident. And sometimes that's kind of all you need from your role guys. Like the Celtics would have that issue as they dipped into their bench, which they've spent 70, 100 first round picks on. And they would just bring these dudes in and it's like, oh, they're semi-auxiliary from the corner. This isn't going in. This has no chance whatsoever.

Meanwhile, semi-auxiliary probably shot 40 plus percent on corner threes this year. And you somehow had no faith that they were going in. None. Zero. Zilch. Wanamaker. Although I will say, I was texting my friend Hench Thursday night, or Tuesday night. I was like,

I think I'd rather have Wanamaker than Kendrick Nunn. I think I finally found a playoff backup point guard I'd least want to have over Wanamaker. Kendrick Nunn's been a disaster. I think Grant Williams has a chance to be a good role player for a long time. And I think the Celtics are high on Langford. We didn't see a lot of them this year.

I mean, I trust their guys. They're high on Langford. We'll see. They're high on Langford until he gets traded with Gordon Hayward and all three first-round picks for Buddy Heald. Then they won't be as high. That's not bad. You like that one, right? Expiring contract all three first-round picks for Buddy Heald, then they won't be as high. That's not bad. You like that one, right? Expiring contract?

Three first-round picks for Buddy Heald making $20 million is a lot. 24. Whatever it is, it's a lot. No, but if you're talking Hayward, Lankford, and one of the three picks for Buddy Heald, and Sacramento could

get out of the Hayward contract in a year and they solved the Buddy Heald Bogdanovich headache they have. It's a pretty interesting one. Did you see that story in The Athletic by Jason Jones about how Buddy Heald is not returning Luke Walton's text messages or something like that? What are we going to make of

the 25-game winning streak that Luke Walton presided over compared to the rest of his career as a coach TBD. Cause LeBron was out on him in like a minute and a half. I, I, yeah, I got it. I got it. I think I got the buddy Hill story. I don't know. We'll see. I mean, I think the Kings, they're going to try to make the playoffs next year. Like it was a weird season where they where they started out playing super slow,

even though they have the fastest point guard in the NBA. That was a little bit weird. And then Buddy came off the bench and he was mad about it, but it kind of worked. They started winning more. Next year is going to be telling for them. I think they have to pick between Buddy and Bogdanovich. But I'm still a Bagley supporter,

even though them taking him over Luca was one of the five dumbest things I can remember in a draft until Atlanta then traded the pick. But, um, remember you don't follow this stuff. And I was texting you as all this was happening. I was like, this is a generational disaster. Well, all the people I trust, all the draft picks I trust, both in the media and with teams,

we're just all Luca, Luca, Luca, Luca, like all of them are good. Like Luca is going to be, has a chance to be a generational superstar. Marvin Bagley is good. Like that was the,

so like, you know, like good, like could be good. Like, you know, he hasn't barely played in the last year and a half, but.

It's so tough. I, I mean, you know, he hasn't barely played in the last year and a half, but. It's so tough. I mean, it's, there's no way to come back from it. It's a documentary. You can make a documentary about that draft. I would love to know, like Phoenix is semi-defensible because I do think Aiton's good and they have Booker and it seemed like they had some inside Intel on Luca from coach Igor, who,

if he had loved them, I, something funky was going on there. And then the Sacramento thing, there was definitely some debauched dockage. Nobody knows your Sacramento thing. There's some backstory with that, that we don't,

I think Igor Kakashkov liked Luca Donchik. I don't think there was any, any negative Intel for him. I don't, Iuka Doncic. I don't think there was any negative intel from him. That's a tough miss. I don't think. I don't think. I don't think that pick was about Igor at all. Luka and Booker together would be magnificent.

I really would have enjoyed that. Yep. That would have been really fun. The Suns were the team of the bubble. So you got to give them, you know, let's see what they do next year. 8-0 in the bubble and almost made the playoffs. Or the play-in. Some cap space, if cap space exists,

whenever the next season starts. So you think finals MVP is still kind of open a little bit? I think it should be. I think it should be, yeah. I mean, if AD comes out, if game five's close and AD has like 35, 15, and five blocks and is the best player on the floor, I think I'd probably vote for him.

I don't have a vote, but you know, I thought he had the edge after two games. He stunk in game three. And I think they were kind of co-MVPs of game four, but LeBron's LeBron and it's going to be hard to take away. Do you feel like you must feel this as, um,

a well-known basketball voice in a wilderness of annoying everything. LeBron is a little like Beyonce, where if you say anything that's not 100% positive, people just get so upset. There's like a LeBron hive. But there's also, first of all, I'm not really familiar with how the Beyonce hive operates because that's not in my wheelhouse.

I do like Beyonce. It's fun. I'm just not really tweeting about Beyonce or talking about her very often in my regular life. But I also think it's interesting because there's also a pretty large corner of

LeBron skeptics that are still out there. Professional LeBron skeptics that are still out there. Professional LeBron skeptics. Yeah, pretty loudly. It's like their shtick. I don't know if that's about Jordan and like some loyalty to Jordan or just LeBron choked in the finals

and I just, it's unforgivable. It colors everything these people, for these people, it colors everything that happens afterwards. But LeBron, yes, that what you talked about exists, but the other side of it exists too. Or if you praise LeBron, yes, that what you talked about exists, but the other side of it exists too. Or if you praise LeBron

or you say he's the greatest or whatever, all these other people come out and you're like, whoa, this is just a lot. There's a lot of stuff coming at me. It makes people mad. Well, the last dance stuff was really fun in that respect because it was almost like watching politics. Everybody's just on their side.

They don't want to accept counter arguments. There's no discourse. It's people just yelling about what they think is right. And that's it. And the reality is, I mean, I guess it depends on what your qualification is for greatest. You know, like, is it the peak of somebody that you watched or is it the career?

Because if it's career, it's him and Kareem. And if it's peak, I still think it's Jordan. And I don't think it's an argument. So it kind of depends on what you value. I'm going to, yeah, I think it's going to be an argument. I think peak is going to be an argument. Really? Well, you know, I mean, Jordan's peak was a little bit higher, but LeBron's peak is just like this endless peak to just go like you look for the horizon and you're still seeing the peak like it's still there.

Like that has got to count for something. It's a sustained peak, but you got the advantages of the generation have to factor into it. And that's why I think like when you talk about the greatest players, I was texting you about, is there, is it almost like we should think of this generationally with whatever was going on in that era, right? Like Russell only plays 13 seasons,

but he was in college for four years and they're playing during a time when they had none of this stuff. And then Kareem misses his first four years because of UCLA, but still manages to play basically two decades, which is incredible. What is Kareem, a five-time MVP? Yeah, well, that's the thing. I was trying to figure out something

with the top three MVPs where if you go through every year, you get four points for... Actually, let's throw it to a break because this is really good. So I figured out something where if you look at the top three MVPs since 1955 and you give four points for a first place finish

and two points for a second place finish and one point for a third place finish. Okay. And you add up all the points. Kareem is the highest at 28. Jordan's at 28. LeBron's at 27. And Russell's at 26.

And those are the top four. So they're all basically tied. Yeah. And I was like, that's cool because that should be the order in some order, right? Kareem had six MVPs.

Six. Okay. A second and two thirds. And Jordan had five first. He had five MVPs, three seconds, two thirds. LeBron was four, four and three. And Russell was five, two and three. And then nobody else is really close to them.

If you extend it to top four and you make it eight points for first, four for second, four for second, two for third, one for fourth, Kareem is 62. Jordan has 56 points. LeBron also has 56 points. And Russell has 54. And those four stand out again.

I think it matters when you're, you know, as we look at this stuff, player performance matters, but it also matters like, how many years were you one of the three best guys in the league? And those four guys were the three best guys in the league way more than anybody else were. And that's it. Like, it's the case that's the most dramatic against Kobe. Kobe only has nine points total in that top three example.

Can I say something that's going to irritate you? Yeah. Maybe I do this because I'm a contrarian, but I don't think actually, I don't think really. The guy that I always kind of cape for in these discussions is Will Chamberlain. So where is Will? Will's got, I think, four MVPs. I'm looking at 21 points. Four MVPs, two second place, three third. I'm just fast. I will readPs, 2 second place, 3 third I'm just fascinated I will read any good Will Chamberlain biography I'm fascinated by him

I've read them all I think his career has become underrated because of this perception that he was soft compared to Russell and didn't care about winning as much and all this he was a loser he was a loser with a capital L I don't think that's fair everyone from his generation said it He was a loser. That's why. He was a loser with a capital L.

I don't think that's fair. Everyone from his generation said it. Is he a loser or is he just not a winner on the level that we want the greatest players of all time to be a winner? He was super selfish. I know, but he was super selfish though. And I think when you read all the accounts from other players from that era, it's kind of like startling how candid they were. Do whatever you wanted.

If you were a little Chamberlain and the guy guarding you was like a six, eight dude in flat shoes who couldn't jump. I think I would be selfish too, but then I would, I try to lead the league and assist just because I could, I don't know. And the, like what I,

you know, the Lakers era wilt is kind of complicated too, with what happened in the 69 finals and all that. But I did a whole chapter about this. The biggest case against him is in his prime, he got traded twice and both times the teams were like, Hey man, we'll just take 30 cents of the dollar. Can you take wilt? Like that LeBron never gets traded ever at any point in his prime, neither does Jordan,

neither does Russell. And I think, you know, and even Kareem, when Kareem got traded, it was because he put a gun to Milwaukee's head, right? So that's why I can't put him in there. Just that alone. He got traded twice. I just wanted to say, I just wanted to make you a little mad and say his name. Yeah. Well, I tried

to figure out the playoff MVPs. I did this in a column a while back and I've kept track of it. If you just voted for the MVP after every playoffs and Russell's still at like nine or 10, depending on how you feel about 68, Jordan six, LeBron, if you include this one, which I think we end up, we will. I have them at five because I have them as the 2015 playoffs MVP,

even though the Warriors won. I think that's more than that's fair, right? Yeah. I think, I think you could. That's fair, right? Yeah. I think you could have him. Where do you have him? I think in one of the Durant Warriors championship years, he probably would have had a case then as well, particularly like 2018.

He had like eight 40-point games in that playoffs. And just like, obviously, I was re-watching. I was re-watching game one of the 2018 finals today amazing the lineup they had on the floor around LeBron at the beginning of the fourth quarter was like Jordan Clarkson Kyle Korver

Jeff Green LeBron and Larry Nance Jr. It's like how and the game was close like how is this possible? That was the best game I've seen him play in person. Great game. Yeah, I was on the fence with that.

I gave that one to KD. I bet LeBron gets one of 17 or 18 if I really look deep into it, but maybe not. The toughest one to figure out of this decade was 14. And who was the Spurs playoff MVP? And I gave it to Duncan just of this decade was 14 and who is these Spurs playoff MVP. And I gave it to Duncan just because of what he meant. And he was like 17 and nine. But I think one of the great things about that team was that there wasn't an

MVP. They, they were kind of built a little like this Miami team, right? You didn't know who was going to be game to game series for series. And they really played really well together. There would be a five minute stretch. You would be like, man,

Boris Dia was like the key to this team. Changed the whole team. Or Bellinelli would have a quarter. Like he would have like his version of the Tyler Hero corner. So yeah, so playoff MVPs, it's basically Russell, Jordan, LeBron, Duncan and Kareem and Shaq

are the only ones that would have three. So anyway, with the generational GOAT thing, and I throw out everything before the shot clock, I don't care. But maybe, so we stop all fighting about this, maybe we should just say the Mount Rushmore is Jordan, LeBron, Russell, and Kareem, and just be done with it. Don't you have to have one? Well, I do.

The best part I've ever seen in my life was Jordan. It still hasn't changed no matter what LeBron does. But you could tell me LeBron had a better career, but I've never seen anything like Jordan. And that's why I was glad The Last Dance existed. Yeah, I enjoyed The Last Dance. It was great. Great stroll down memory lane for me. I don't know. The rules are totally different, obviously. Jordan would take way more threes now because the game has been geared to taking more threes. much easier to isolate in Jordan zero than it is now. It's just, it's like, it is, it is, we will look back.

If anything, the scrapping of the illegal defense rules has been an underplayed moment in NBA history. Like the game is completely different. And I was reading some old articles about all the commentary about that at the time from coaches, from general managers, some people were like wildly wrong about what would happen to the game. Like some of the most famous basketball people in the world were like, the stores that this is going to destroy offense scores will be in the

seventies and the eighties. Cause NBA teams will be so good at zone. And then other people are like, just obviously this is going to open up the game. It's the game is totally different because of that. Do you think Luca has a chance to be as good as those four guys? Cause I do. That's a, and I know that, I know that's a hefty thing to put on somebody, but that's a lot. You look at the checkpoints that he's hit so far. No, you're right. And it's,

it's kind of unassailable that he is on track to be as good as those guys, barring 17 different terrible things that could happen. Well, and like LeBron, he's going to play all of his career in the three point shooting, no hand checking era, unless they change the rules again, except unlike LeBron, he's coming in when it's like, oh, it's totally normal for you to shoot eight step-back threes a game. And you saw the numbers he put up in the playoffs. And he's young. If he stays healthy,

his statistics are probably going to be outrageous. The thing for him, the thing that really separated Kareem first and then Jordan and LeBron was how much time they spent on their body and how competitive they became about that. Kareem never got credit for that because Kareem was a dick to everybody and nobody wanted to give him credit for anything.

But he was doing yoga and all that stuff. People were making fun of him at the time. Like, what the fuck are you doing? Why are you doing this? Why are you watching what you eat? All these things that nobody had thought to do. And that was one of the reasons he played two decades. I think if Luca commits to his body,

I certainly think he's as talented as those guys. I know that's a crazy thing to say, but I really believe it. Like what he did at age 21 was never done in the history of the league. And yeah, you could say, Oh, there's all these rule changes that favored all that.

It's like, all right, well, I don't, the fact that he's going to become a much better three point shooter on top of all the other things he could do already, he's has a chance. Well, um, the obvious difference that we haven't talked about is all four of those guys

were elite defensive players, right? In their primes. I mean, I'm looking at Kareem is an 11 timetime all-defensive team player, and the other three, everybody knows their reputations. It feels like Luka's ceiling as a defender, and it's weird to put a ceiling on him now, is above average. I don't think he's ever going to... Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know, but it feels like above average

is a good ceiling for him defensively. That's a really good point. As a two-way guy, how special... Even, I think, Bird in the mid-80s. And Bird was never an unbelievable defensive player, but he made a couple

all-defense teams and was really dangerous. And jumping passing lanes and the way he rebounded and stuff like that. The fact that Luka rebounds the way he does is a pretty cool thing. But yeah, could he lock down somebody the way LeBron did stuff like that. The fact that Luka rebounds the way he does is a pretty cool thing. But yeah, could he lock down somebody the way LeBron did? No, which is why I think Luka has the best chance of anyone we have right now.

But I feel like those four guys are going to be levitating above everybody else for a while. Luka might, I mean, if he averages 35, 10, and 11 one year, we're going to have to reevaluate. I agree. All right, we're going to take a break. And then we and 11 one year, we're going to have to reevaluate. I agree. All right, we're going to take a break, and then we have a little gimmick we're going to do. Let's take a break to talk about Miller. As you know, the season has felt a little different this year.

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Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Wisconsin, void where prohibited. See official rules at MillerLagCantena.com for entry instructions, prizes, restrictions, et cetera. Okay. So I mailed this to you like an hour and a half before the podcast. I didn't want to do it two days or a day before because I know what a psycho you are and you wouldn't have been able to handle it. So I sprung it on you last minute and I knew what your reaction was going to be. First was immediate panic and then about 10 minutes later being like, oh, this would be fun. I'm actually, yeah, I'm glad we're doing this. It's exactly what happened. It's literally the exact sequence of events that happened.

So we're doing a little 18, 21st century championship bracket. The one seed is going to be the 2017 Warriors. The two seed is the 01 Lakers. The three seed is the 2013 Heat. The four seed is the 08 Celtics. The five seed is the 2013 Heat the four seed is the 08 Celtics the five seed is the 2020 Lakers because out of respect to the top two six seed

a team near and dear to your hearts the 2014 Spurs Zach loved them seven seed 2009 Lakers in our eight seed we're going to have a play-in game to try to boost ratings. Ratings are down.

We got to boost the ratings up. It's a playing game for the eighth seed between the 0-4 Pistons and the 2011 Mavs. The winner gets to play the 2017 Warriors. I have the 0-4 Pistons as a minus three-point favorite in the single elimination playing game. Who is your pick? Who are you taking? 0-4 Pistons or a minus three-point favorite in the single elimination playing game,

who is your pick? Who are you taking? 0-4 Pistons or 11 Mavs? They got a lot of dudes to throw at Dirk. I'm just going to point that out. Statistically, they're pretty similar. I did spend 20 minutes going through the team metrics here, just to be clear for this. But, you know,

all of the Pistons statistics are skewed negatively or skewed. They're, they were better than their big picture statistics because of how late they got sheath. I'm going to go with the 2004 Pistons. I just think that was a monstrous defensive team that really found its groove in the playoffs offensively.

I love that team. I love the 2011 Mavs. I just, I don't even, I don't want any part of that 2004 Pistons team. That is not a fun team to play against. Yeah, that would have been a bad matchup for the Mavs. Because they would have been like...

If you sculpted a Dirk defender, you would get Anthony Davis or KG or Sheed when he's locked in. That's the kind of guy you want. Motivated Sheed. Which really, those three months were the only time other than the 2000 Blazers Sheed, like when he's locked in, like that's the kind of guy you want. Motivated Sheed. Yeah. Which really those three months were the only time other than the 2000 Blazers where we saw him a hundred percent motivated and you just, you know,

one of the most frustrating players of our lifetime. But when he was at his best, it felt like he was as good as everyone else on the court. I believe Sheed never made an all NBA team. He didn't deserve it. I think there's not even one. I think there's like not even one like, Oh,

he was third team that year. Um, but I'd have to double check that. All right. So that means we have the Oh four Pistons, the team that we both enjoy. Um, a team that can't really be compared by normal numbers.

Cause that the NBA was prehistoric that year. The pace was so freaking slow. That was the year we had, what was that Pacers-Pistons game? It was 66-64. Yeah, there was some ugly ones. I think that's the Tayshaun Prince-Black game in the 60s.

They end up changing a lot of rules that summer. It's kind of amazing. It took them 70 plus years not to realize that an offensive rebound should be a 14 second shot clock. Whoever thought of that idea, thanks to that guy. That was a

huge rule change. That had so many good ramifications. It's funny you say that because I was watching one of these old games today. I don't remember which game. A Jordan game. And you really notice how big a deal an offensive rebound is late in the game. And when you get to full reset, like you're like, Oh my God,

this is like, they're really like walking it back to half court. And like, Oh, this is a huge difference. Yeah. I mean, that was like the whole Mark Jackson strategy in the late nineties.

Right. Anytime, any, anytime he could peel 20 seconds off the clock, he was doing it. Uh, first round 2017 warriors against the Oh four Pistons, unfortunate matchup for the Oh four Pistons. This is, this is not who they wanted a team that had trouble getting to a hundred points playing the best offensive team we had this century. And one of the best ones all time. I still think the 2017 Warriors

are a top three or four all-time team for me. And the Durant and Curry together in the playoffs, all the stuff they were doing. And then Clay and Draymond as supporting parts. There was never a doubt they were winning the title. It was great to watch. I have them winning this series in five. What do you have?

They were also the number two defensive team that year. They were awesome winning this series in five. What do you have? They were also the number two defensive team that year in the regular season. Plus 12.9 points per hundred possessions in the playoffs. That's the second best figure of all time to another team that's in our little bracket here. I mean, they went 16 and one in the playoffs. I'll give the Pistons a game because they're champions and they'll probably find a way to get a game. But it's going to be interesting if anybody can unseat the 2017 Warriors in this little gimmick we're doing because I find their case as the greatest team

of modern NBA history to be almost airtight. I agree. I think the two best, the three out of this century, the three best teams in terms of stretches of basketball, we saw were the Olin Lakers, the 17 Warriors and that heat 27 game win streak. And I think that those were the peaks, right? That's the weird,

the weird thing about the Spurs. They never had that year, that stretch where you're just like, Oh, that was it. That one team. It was like the, they could never calibrate the Robinson Ginobili Parker with Duncan thing where everybody was at kind of their peaks. They'd got 99 Robinson on the Oh five Spurs team. Maybe it would happen,

but anyway, I'm going to save my reaction to that for when we get to the 2014 Spurs. All right, we'll go to the two seed. Now the 2001 Lakers tumultuous year for them. A lot of feuding, even in this fake bracket. And,

and they really came together and put aside their differences. And you're still getting peak Shaq. You're getting blossoming into a super duper star Kobe. You're getting the team that completely eviscerated the Kings either in round two or round three. I can't remember where each game, either Shaq or Kobe had some crazy game culminating in Kobe, I think at 48 and the clincher doing this off the top of

my head, um, versus the 2009 Lakers, which is fun because Kobe gets to guard himself, which I think is probably a dream come true for that decades, Kobe anyway. But you have Gasol and Bynum leaning on Shaq. From a role player standpoint, you have the Ariza, older Derek Fisher versus the 01 Lakers had early Fisher,

Horry, Rick Fox. I thought that was a really good team. I think they run them over. And I think 2001 Shaq wants to stick it to 2009 Kobe in this series for some reason. I'm tempted to pick a sweep. Okay.

2001 Lakers won 15-1 in the playoffs. They are the team I hinted at before, the best net rating in postseason history. Should have gone undefeated. They lose in overtime to Iverson or they sweep the playoffs, which nobody's ever done, ever. I just think

Shaq and Kobe were so dominant that I just don't know that older Kobe and Pal plus Bynum, plus Odom, plus whoever have any answers for that team. Well, we talked footnote titles.

The 09 footnote, two big ones for this one. Oh, no. Oh, no. Here we go. It's coming. It's coming. KG goes down. I knew it. The 09 Celtics are better than the 08 Celtics. But then LeBron just getting... You know, we're just sitting there

waiting for LeBron versus Kobe. I still feel kind of cheated. That would have been amazing. And then Orlando's like, hold my beer. getting, you know, we're just sitting there waiting for LeBron versus Kobe. I still feel kind of cheated. That would have been amazing. And then Orlando's like, hold my beer. And all of a sudden, they're in the finals. Terrible matchup for those Cavs teams. Terrible matchup.

Orlando was a nightmare matchup for them. And a really good team. 2009 Lakers, by the way, 65-17. That was a really, really Really good team But I just think Shaq Rolls them In this In this fake series

Well you and I both Love Gasol And that was a really good Gasol They had him the whole year They really figured out How to use him He was perfect

For the triangle And You know Yeah but By the way Prime Shaq Is just putting everybody In the basket There's just nothing Shaq is just putting everybody in the basket. There's just nothing you can do.

Just putting everyone in the basket. I redid my pyramid and Gasol made the top 100. That sounds totally plausible. Shaq probably made the top 10. Yeah, he's still lurking. All right, next round. Heat 2013. Ironically playing the 2014 Spurs.

So the slightly inferior version of the Spurs the year before almost beat the 2013 Heat and should have. So now we have a slightly better version. Since we saw this series already, I got to take the 2014 Spurs in our first upset. This is a tough one because like you said, it's, you know,

the next season, the 2014 Spurs rolled the heat, but the heat were tired. It was a year later. They were getting old. They were ready to break. Well, LeBron was about to leave them.

The big, so the big differences you get with the 14 Spurs, you get a healthy Tony Parker. Remember, he was hurt in the 13 finals. You have Kawhi, who now has a couple years under his belt. And for the first time, we're starting to look at Kawhi as like, oh man, this guy isn't just a role player. This is going to be the transition guy for Duncan.

And then just randomly, Boris Diaw was unbelievable in 2014. I get healthier Wade in 2013, though. You do. And you get the last kind of important baddie where you play defense.

Statistically, they're incredibly similar teams. Almost the exact same regular season net rating spurs in the playoffs were much more dominant uh well a little bit more dominant than the 2013 heat 2014 spurs plus 10 points for 100 possession in the playoffs that's third best all time but weirdly 16 and 7 which is underwhelming because dallas somehow took them to seven in the first round. Heat were also 16-7 in 2013. I'm tempted to just say I pick the team with LeBron, but I love that 2014 Spurs team so much,

and they just found Nirvana. For like a month, they found Nirvana, and I'm going to go to seven. I'm going to go into seven. I'm going to go into 2014's first. Ginobili buzzer beater to win game seven. I think it's the right pick because it's basically the same series we had in

2013, except you have Kawhi is 20% better and Parker's healthy and Diaz a little bit better. So when you consider they came within one rebound of beating them in 2013, you figure those three things. Yeah, I think it was just honestly a bad matchup for Miami in a lot of ways, right?

It was a team that was playing the ball movement, small ball version of what they were doing, and a team that had, as it turned out, a generational defensive player to throw at LeBron and at least make him work. The level of playmaking up and down the roster was just outrageous. They'd have five

really good passers on the floor all at once and just ran the heat ragged. Let's reward those Spurs teams. Spurs in seven. Upset. Our first upset. I gotta say, I felt bad for the 2014 Spurs historically because everyone was expecting, OKC are the the Clippers that was Durant's MVP year we were thinking about LeBron versus Durant the Spurs missed

their chance they blew it the year before they weren't going to be able to make it back and all of a sudden they were in the finals then it was like LeBron LeBron LeBron then by the last two games it was oh my god could LeBron leave and meanwhile the Spurs beat the shit out of them LeBron, LeBron. Then by the last two games, it was, oh my God, could LeBron leave? Comes fast. Meanwhile, the Spurs beat the shit out of them in those finals. Remember? Oh, you knew. The last three games, they're up 20 in the second half of

each game. But that okays. The series for them was the Western Conference finals against Oklahoma City. Ibaka missed the first two games. Comes back. Oklahoma City ties the series at two, and it feels like, well, this is it for the Spurs. If they don't get by

this series, this may be their last chance to get one more ring in the Duncan era. And they summoned enough to win the next two games, including overtime at OKC in game six. I believe Tony Parker missed the second half of that game with an injury. That's to Corey Joseph.

Right. And that was the first coming out of that series where we're kind of looking at the Westbrook-Durant thing. Like, hmm. Hmm. Where's this going? You love the Westbrook-Durant thing. You still do.

I got a lot of mileage out of it. You loved it at the time. Our 4-5 matchup. 08 Celtics against the 2020 Lakers, who some people are saying were seated too high in this. I saw this.

I saw this. I just wanted this matchup. I saw this and I thought, Bill is courting maximum internet anger by setting this matchup up. It's a great one. So you have this 08 Celtics team. I know who you're picking.

I know who you're picking. No, I'm willing to talk it out because you have the KG, you know, not only defending Anthony Davis, but talking all kinds of shit to him the whole time. You have a Perkins, Dwight Howard, probably a fistfight in game two, and both of them are suspended for the rest of the series.

So we have to factor that in. Or somebody's elbowed and knocked unconscious. Who knows? It's a big Celtics team, right? I think one of the things, even as frustrating as the coaching was that year and some of the lineups with that 08 Celtics team was they could go small, they could go big. They were malleable.

So if the Lakers were doing their small lineup with Davis, the Celtics could respond with their small lineup with Pierce at the four and shooters and their supporting cast was better. Pierce is somebody that had a lot of success against LeBron over the years. I'm not saying he was better than him, but went toe-to-toe with him in 08 and was a young LeBron, but was better in that series.

And in 2010, I thought did some good stuff in that series too. And at least he was always able to at least slow him down and make him work because he was so strong. And then the Ray Allen piece, that's a tough one. Him running around screens with, uh, inferior dudes chasing him. I think the key battle is Rondo against playoff Rondo. Oh, wait, Rondo gets, yeah. What Rondo they might get in a fight.

Oh, wait, Rondo was a big wild card. He'd have some weirdly quiet games. Then he'd come out and put up like a triple double, like the finals clincher. He was outrageously good that year. Well, he was kind of unplayable half the time. It was feast or famine. There were games where you just like, you got to get him out of there. Play any house. Put in any house. Yeah.

Yeah. I'm going to let you pick this one because I'm biased. So you just outlined the case for the Celtics, right? Which is that like Pierce plus KG equals LeBron plus AD. Ray is better than anyone else on the Lakers, blah, blah, blah. The case would be, could AD be the best player in this series? I think that's how they win. Because I actually think the Celtics, they would have thrown dudes at LeBron. LeBron would have done what he always does in these series, I think that's how they win. Because I actually think the Celtics, they would have thrown dudes at LeBron.

LeBron would have done what he always does in these series. But what would AD have done in this series? Especially with KG whispering terrible things to him every game. Challenging his manhood. Perkins hard-fouling everybody. Perkins gets thrown out of at least two of these games. I do think the Lakers bench has been pretty good in this playoff run,

better than expected, and would do well chasing around Ray Allen. They've chased around the heat shooters pretty well. Okay, fair. Here's my thing with the 2008 Celtics. Yep. I can't pick you if the Hawks take you to seven in the first round. And then LeBron by himself, with apologies to the rest of the 2008 Cavs, takes you to seven in the second round.

I can hear the Celtics as well. All four of our wins against Atlanta were blowouts, and all three of the losses were close. How do you let the Hawks take you to set 16 and 10 in the playoffs? It's the worst playoff record of this whole group, 66 and 16 in the regular season. They almost lost more playoff games than they did regular season games. Not really. Well, they lost. Yeah. Those first two rounds are alarming to me. I have to, and then I just like, who has LeBron? So I'm actually going to

pick the 2020 Lakers in a seven-game bloodbath in this series. I hate to say it, but I think it's the right pick. Because the 08 Cavs with LeBron, a way inferior version of him, as great as he was as a

23-year-old. And no supporting cast at all. Took the 2008 Celtics to seven. So now I'm getting smart LeBron. I'm getting Anthony Davis. I'm getting a better supporting cast. Like, it actually makes sense that they would beat them. And also, like, look,

we're all imagining these ridiculous counterfactuals, but, like, the 2008 Celtics defense, the Thibodeau defense, was, like, innovative and strange and unfamiliar and like was doing crazy stuff well 2020 lebron and ad have like been playing against that basic defense for 10 years now so the surprise factor isn't there again this is all a fun exercise i'm taking i'm just taking lebron I just, that Hawks series still bugs me to this day about that team. And you have to admit it. Game seven, Cleveland, you were terrified of LeBron.

Terrified. That was the most frustrating title season of any title I've ever rooted for and enjoyed as a Boston fan. There were so many moments. I mean, you can even read that. I'm like a crazed person in some of the columns I wrote that year. I just couldn't believe the lineups we were playing. And I think they stumbled into the identity of the team

halfway through that Detroit series. And from that point on, they're really good. And that was when- They won the last two series in six. Doc was just so enamored with big ball basketball. And meanwhile, they had one of the better small ball lineups you would ever want when they had house and Ray Allen and Pierce and Posey and KG, they were kind of unbeatable.

And I have no idea what the advanced metrics were for that lineup in the playoffs, but it had to have been ridiculous. You can't let the Atlanta Hawks in 2008, I think he does seven games in advance in this fake tournament. You just, you can't happen. Well, not to mention

LeBron by himself with Delonte and Wally Serbiak and whoever else was on that fucking Sasha Pavlovich. All right. We're down to the next round.

We'll go faster. The 17 Warriors in a 1-4 matchup. Against the 2020 unless you wait, wait, we got to figure this out actually. So we had a six seed advance. Does that mean we recede or is it bracket stuff?

No receding. We're going to be like the NBA. No receding. Okay. All right. So 17 Warriors against the 20 Lakers. So we're basically getting the same matchup. Yeah, I know. I feel the same. The Warriors have an embarrassment of riches. They're actually all locked in for the entirety of the season that year

because it's their first year together with KD. KD has been, I mean, there's no answer for LeBron, but KD is like the only wing who, who can really consistently go toe to toe with him and sometimes outdo him and play off games. Well, he certainly did in that finals. He played better than him in 17. It was, it was close, but he was better. He pulls up in his face and hits the shot to win game three and kind of end

the series. Basically. I just, it's hard to pick against the word. It's boring, but that team is just absolutely ridiculous. That's how I feel. The other series is more interesting. Who do we got? I forgot. It's the 0-1 Lakers against the Cinderella story, 2014

Spurs. Not that interesting to me. Well, it's fun, though. 0-1 Lakers. 0-1 Lakers were I just, 0-1 Lakers were so, that is the greatest flip the switch team

in the history of professional sports. When they decided, when they, and specifically Shaq, decided that it was time to play, you were just,

you were just the ant on the road when the steamroller is coming for you. There's, it was just over. Shaq was the best first 44 minutes of

a game player of the last 40 years since Kareem. The problem for him was always the last four minutes when you started fouling him, he would get nervous in crunch time, all that stuff. But then they had Kobe, who was totally ready to be any closer

in any close game. I thought that team was awesome. It's such a bummer that you almost have to merge the 2000 regular season with the 2001 playoffs as the best version of those two years, but they didn't time it correctly. But when I was

doing my book trying to figure out the greatest teams 12 years ago, that was the team that really jumped out to me. Historically, this run, they basically have from some come to Jesus, Phil Jackson meeting through the last 25 games or so all the way into the playoffs. They're just annihilating everybody in the league was pretty good that season. Yeah. You look at the all NBA teams, it teams, it's C-Web at its peak. C-Web was top five all-NBA that year. They destroyed him.

Duncan, I think, got hurt that year. He got hurt in 01 or 02, one of those years. But that was kind of, you know, they didn't have Parker yet. I don't think they had Ginobili yet either. That was just kind of an older Spurs team. KG didn't have the help yet.

But the league in general, there's a lot of talent that year. That was the Iverson, Vince Carter. It's pretty loaded. And they just- You're right. They're the one Iverson game away from like true basketball immortality.

If they win that game, everybody instantly remembers them as maybe the greatest playoff team of all time. I don't think anyone's ever going to do that. If anybody, I mean, instantly remembers them as maybe the greatest playoff team of all time. I don't think anyone's ever going to do that. If, if anybody, I mean, look, there's, we didn't think a 16 would be the one and then a 16 to be the one. So maybe someday, but that's really, really hard. And if the 2017 warriors couldn't do it, cause that, that was the, you know,

they got almost all the way there, right. They were 15 and Oh, they could stay. It was right in front of them. And they lose game four, I believe. If they can't do it, I find it hard to believe anybody will do it. I think what's the reason I would say nobody can do it now is the three-point factor

and how random these games are now. There's just no rhyme or reason. You can't even computer simulate this shit. How are you going to computer simulate like the one random Warriors game where the other team hits 23 threes and goes 23 for 40 from three? Like, that's what we can't factor in.

I think it was a lot easier to do it with the 2001 Lakers. All right, so we have the 17. Thanks to our playoff teams, by the way. We have some parting gifts for you. We have the 2017 Warriors against the 2001 Lakers. I feel like that's the right matchup, don't you? Me too.

Like I didn't really actually think that hard about who was going to advance, but I feel like we've landed in the right place. Those are the two best teams of the post-Jordanaire. So we landed in the right place. Those were the two best teams of the post-Jordanaire. So we landed in the right place. It's amazing that a Heat team isn't one of them and we don't really feel

super regrettable about it. But that's what I'm saying about the Heat. It's a no-brainer that these are the two teams you end up with. Well, the problem is... LeBron's not on any of these teams. LeBron's team is not in the finals. And it feels fine.

If we were doing stretches, which would be another interesting bracket, and then you could have, like, the 2016 Warriors' first 25 games team in here, and you could have the heat streak, you could have the first two months of the 2009 Celtics. Maybe that'll be our next bracket. 2016 Warriors might have been the most fun.

Like the Curry shot in Oklahoma City is like the most fun regular season moment for everybody who's not a Thunder fan. That was like, everybody remembers where they were when that shot happened. It's more fun if they win in 16 and the Cavs went in 2017. And all the stuff that happened for LeBron happened with the 17 team. Well,

that's the thing is like the, the Durant signing. I mean, it changed so many things, but the 2017 finals, that's the best Cleveland team of, of LeBron's Cleveland career. Yeah. And they just go in there with no shot because this team was,

because of a salary cap spike was just created. And like, there's just nothing you can do. They have four all NBA players at the same time, including arguably two of the top three players in the NBA. Yeah. That Cavs team is really good. Warriors Lakers. So we're going to play it out. The case for the Lakers is

Shaq just steamrolls the Warriors and puts up 43 and 20 every game. My question is, the Warriors are taking advantage of this modern basketball world where they get an extra 17 points a game from threes. So Shaq, have your twos. We're just going to come back down and hit a three,

and we're putting you in pick and roll every time. I actually asked Steve Carter about this. I can't remember if it was on a podcast or off the record. So if it was off the record, sorry, Steve. But he was just like, we would put Shaq in pick and roll constantly. Like whoever he's guarding,

we're putting him in pick and roll and we're trying to get either Durant or Curry with Shaq 20 feet from the basket. And we're just going to keep doing that until you have to figure out something. And I think that's easier for Golden State to do than the counter,

which is we're just going to post Shaq on Draymond Green 50 times because they'll front, they'll help. And yeah, that'll get some Lakers open threes. But it's harder to just give him the ball than it is to put him, even if he's guarding Iguodala, you just put Iguodala on a pick and roll and see what happens. There's one other reason I think the Warriors win. I think Kobe, 2001

Kobe, you know, he was a little off the reservation. I think he sees this series as like, they're going to triple team Shaq. I've got to win this for us. And you would have had that alpha dog thing resurfacing where he's like, oh, these guys think they can shoot threes?

Watch this. And Kobe, because we saw that happen to him in a couple of playoff series where he would get thrown off for basically the dynamics of the series. So I actually think the Warriors win this in five, but I think Shaq has one game where he has like 57 points. I'm going to give the Lakers two games just because,

but I think five might be the right call, but I just, I'll give the Laker cause I'm going to, I'm going to magically like bestow upon them 20, 2017 levels of three point shooting volume. And so I do feel like the way they overload on Shaq, the Lakers will have a couple of games where they get really hot from three. So I'll give them a couple of games.

But I think the Warriors are the Warriors. Well, that's an interesting back to the future time machine piece. So if the Lakers are the 2001 roster, but we've now injected them with the knowledge of some of the stuff they should be doing in basketball in 2020. And one of the things would be like, yeah, have Horace shoot like eight threes. Yeah. If he's open, just put him up.

Kobe should shoot eight threes. Fisher should shoot five. You should get to 30 threes. And that's going to open things up for Shaq. That might actually, who knows? I'm still taking the Warriors. That's the best team I've seen since Zinchen. I hope that we get to see a team in our lifetimes

where you actually think about whether you would pick the 2017 Warriors or that team because that will be a special, special team. I think the guys on that team feel that way too. They should. It's a special team. Like it didn't last. It lasted three seasons

and the third one injuries derailed them completely in the end. And, you know, but that's all it was meant to last, I guess. But when they were locked in, I mean, there was just like, I've said this before. I remember a game in Denver. I think it was that year. Might have been the following year, actually. When the Nuggets like hung with them for a quarter.

Like, of course, half the crowd in Denver is Warriors fans. Long time. I'm um long time i'm sure long time warriors fans um and uh and then the second quarter they put all their best player they put the death line up in and in like what seemed like a minute they went on like a 19-0 run and the game was over and it's like you're just watching like i don't even know what you're supposed to do like there's nothing you can do do. Gary Harris is like running around trying to guard. People are like, I'm sorry,

Gary Harris. It's not going to work. Sorry, Gary. Well, that was the other thing with that team is you have a good doll. Who's still at a pretty good point of his career. And he's like the fifth guy,

you know, which that's why when you start talking about historic stuff and the eighties teams, the leagues smaller. So, you know, you have teams that have like Dennis Johnson's their fifth best guy or, you know, right. Um, by Byron Scott is the Lakers fifth, fifth most important guy on this team. And it's like, wow, he would have been like the third most important guy on a normal team.

And I think the Aguadala thing that was, you know, it, there is a fun alternate universe where KD goes to Boston in 16. And the league is just a lot more unpredictable from that point on, right? Because then you have this... It doesn't matter where he goes as long

as it's not Golden State. He doesn't have to go anywhere. As long as it's not Golden State. Because then you have this Durant-LeBron-East rivalry thing going. The West kind of opens up in this really nice way. We might be talking about James Harden differently. I don't know. This is why as much as I'm sure he won't want to hear this,

the Brooklyn stuff is big for KD because I don't think, I don't think fans are ever going to quote unquote, count those two titles as, as, as, as I don't think there'll be weighted the same for his personal legacy as he wishes them to be. I just don't think that will ever be the case. I felt it probably the fourth pot I did with them

a couple weeks after they won the title and I could see it like this kind of like what else do I have to do? I just outplayed LeBron in the finals. I don't get any credit for this. You can't take that away. He's a two-time champion. All that happened. I just I think and like remember

this guy before the achilles tear you talk about the mount rushmore we started with those four guys like he was on a pace to get into that conversation like that's how good he is as a two-way player he just if he wants but we'll see how he looks when he comes back but if he wants to you know continue along that trajectory he's going to need another ring in a different circumstance. I think that's a fair thing to say. What's your over-under for years for KD and Kyrie together? Actually, don't answer that. I don't want to get in trouble. No, I don't care. I mean, I'll say if I think you set the over, I mean, look, what has the NBA taught us in the last five years? Like, do not assume longevity for, like, hardly anything, right?

I mean, you know, I think you said, given that they just signed and they haven't played together yet, I think you said it at, like, 3.5 or 4.5, and you start 4.5, you start thinking under. I'm going under. 3.5 is a good, is a good line. I'm worried about KD post Achilles at the age he's at. He's 32 and he's,

and he's been in the league since he was 19 and he has miles on him, you know, and we haven't seen anybody with that injury come back at a level that I've really liked. Yeah. Also haven't seen a seven footer who can shoot like him very often. It's basically him and Dirk, right? And the reason that Dirk aged so well

is because he could just like, yeah, I can't really move so much anymore, but I will rain hellfire on you from all over the floor. Good point. All right. You can listen to the Low Post podcast. You can read Zach.

He's got a preview coming up of game five, and then I'm sure some other finals-related content. And we'll see you. You're going to be in the... you can read Zach he's got a preview coming up of game 5 and then I'm sure some other finals related content and we'll see you're going to be in the we're doing a book of basketball pod together

in a couple months but I'm going to come on yours after the finals yeah I forgot about that I always like those those book of basketball ones get my brain going in different directions

I know alright good seeing you thanks for coming always good to see you, buddy. At Pennzoil, we have one job. Pioneering a motor oil so advanced, you don't have to think about your motor oil. Instead, you can think about how your engine sounds, how your stomach feels as the RPMs build,

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See Pennzoil.ca slash warranty for full details. All right, I'm taping Million Dollar Picks right after that Bucks, Bears, whatever the hell that was. It's a little past 8.30 here, Pacific time. I'm watching Brady and Foles with the Super Bowl rematch from a few years ago, it was like when Sugar Ray Leonard fought Roberto Duran late, late, late in their careers

when it was like, oh, it kind of looks like these guys, but they were not the same guys. I feel bad for Brady. Brady gave me two unbelievable decades as a football fan. And now he's on this new team that commits 10 penalties a game that gets no respect from the refs. It doesn't seem like the teammates even know each other. And then to cap things off after he got the crap kicked out of him,

made it all the same kind of nervous, quick throws when he gets pressured late in the game. Should have probably been picked on the second to last drive. And it was just getting kind of beaten up a little bit. And it definitely changed the way he was playing as the game went along. And then on that last drive, forgets what down it is. And look, I'm eight years older than Brady. I will call my son by my daughter's name

and vice versa every once in a while. It happens when you get older, when you hit your mid-40s. I think we saw it with Brady tonight. Does he miss Belichick? Does he miss the Patriots? Does he miss the continuity? Does he miss the fans?

Only he knows. But switching teams this year, especially when you have no time at all to spend with anybody, it's just got to be weird for him. It's just a weird way to end your football career. I never really understood it. I never thought it was really worth it. Certainly wouldn't tell somebody who's a competitor like he is what they should do and what decisions they should make with their career. But the upside versus the downside, we'll see. We'll see what this team looks like in two months. I'll tell you one thing, though.

Regardless of the cohesion thing and Godwin coming back, Evans playing at 100%, all that stuff, it's still a Bruce Arians team, and it's still a really sloppy team that makes dumb plays. And it was the same case last year. I think Brady had some interception luck this year, uh, tonight. I felt like, uh, he could have had a couple of picks there. I thought the bears defense looked really good. And if,

if I was a bucks fan longterm, regardless of the cohesion, uh, health factor that a really good defense seems like it can give Tampa Bay problems because I don't feel like their offensive line is that good. I would say it's below average. Um, I don't think it's a disaster, but it's certainly not good. And they were just,

you know, getting a push on Brady the whole time. They even had more sacks than they got credited for. Um, cause Khalil Mack did the slam Brady down to the turf thing. They even had more sacks than they got credited for because Khalil Mack did the slam Brady down to the turf thing. It's weird. It's weird to watch him on another team. It's weird to watch him do old guy stuff.

I can't say I enjoy it that much. I didn't even bet on the game tonight. I had no stake. You know what I am going to bet on? You know what I was thinking of doing? I was thinking of betting on week five, million-dollar picks. Yeah. Fandle didn't put me in charge of their sportsbook for a day. And if they had, I feel like I would have come up with the same game parlays anyway.

But these lines we're using are all from Fandle, and they've given me the gambling gift of so many different combinations you can do with parlays. You can do player props, point totals, money lines. The best part, FanDuel will refund the first same game parlay you lose on any NFL game each week up to $10. That means you can get a different parlay risk-free every NFL week, all season long. That is like free money. So for instance, if you want to do whatever your same game parlay is, maybe it's Dak Prescott throwing for at least three touchdowns with the Dallas Moneyline, something like that. That would be a good one, actually. Knock yourself out. You'll get 10 bucks

back if you don't win your bet do it all season long I mentioned to you also that FanDuel is the only sportsbook where you can play same game parlays listen up sign up with promo code BS

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800-GAMBLER in West Virginia. 1800-GAMBLER.net. Indiana, 800-9. With a Colorado, 800-522-4700. Iowa, 800. Bets off. Okay. Million dollar picks. Here, 800. Bets off. Okay.

Million dollar picks. Here's what we're doing. First of all, the Colts. They hurt my feelings in week one. They lost a game to the Jaguars where they somehow didn't punt the whole game. I licked my wounds. I came back with them a couple times,

including last week. I still feel like they are severely undervalued. I don't know if they have the best defense in the league, but they have the defense that's playing like the best defense in the league. Third in DVOA overall. First defensively. Offense has been a little spotty. They have a pretty slow pace.

Their receivers haven't been healthy. Rivers has been okay, not great. They can run the ball. The rookie tailors are really good. And just in general, they're just a good team that can block, protect Rivers, and make a lot of things happen. The defense, they're playing Cleveland.

They're one and a half point favorites over the Browns. Cleveland, 12th DVOA, which is weird because I've seen a lot of Cleveland. They do not strike me as a top 12 team. They're plus six in turnovers, which I think explains some of their success

being three and one, which is by far first for turnover differential. They don't have Nick Chubb. And as we learned with the Carolina thing, don't overreact when running backs get hurt

on teams. I'm going to overreact a little bit because as much as I love with the Carolina thing, don't overreact when running backs get hurt on teams. I'm going to overreact a little bit because as much as I love Kareem Hunt, he's hurt too. He hurt his groin last week. He ended up leaving that game. They're claiming he's fine or that he might play and that it's playable, but I don't trust groins, especially during this part of the season

when it just seems like a lot of people are pulling this, pulling that. They had a couple backups that were fine, but here's why I bring that up. If their running game isn't lights out, that just means more Baker Mayfield doing stuff. I just don't trust him. I don't think he's been very good. We haven't seen him play a really good defense this year.

I can't believe the Colts aren't giving three. I feel like I'm getting an extra point and a half here. Cleveland's a lot, Cleveland's defense, they've allowed 107 first downs, which is third to last in the league. And for the Colts who haven't really had an awesome offensive game yet, this is the kind of defense you'd want to play. I just think they're better and I'm getting a free point and a half.

So I'm taking the Colts. Browns, I don't see you going to 4-1. So that's one game we're taking. Carolina is favored by 1.5 over Atlanta. Carolina burned me two weeks ago. I smartly stayed away last week because after I watched what they did in Arizona, it was kind of like, what's going on with this team? They're 19th in DVO, Atlanta's 27th.

Atlanta's, people can't believe they haven't fired their coach yet. They've allowed 101 first downs. They're banged up on defense. I've given up on them as the 9-7 team that scores a lot of points and isn't quite a playoff team, but is fun and frisky and all that. This is more a bet on Carolina. I really like Matt Ruhle. I've been really impressed by the Panthers.

I read all morning about a bunch of this stuff because week five is when you can really start applying what you learned from the first four weeks. And the Matt Ruhle thing is a real thing. He came in, every year we see one new coach come in and bring like a new culture to a team. It's happened here. I like all his quotes like two weeks ago after they lost McCaffrey when he was just like,

hey, Mike Davis is really good. He's a downhill back. This guy, don't count us out just because we have Mike Davis. He was right. I like the way they're using Bridgewater. They haven't made a bunch of big plays yet compared to kind of what you would expect from a team that's been moving the ball

the way they've been able to move the ball. But I think this is a classic, just well-coached grinder, plays all 60 minutes, doesn't beat themselves kind of team against a Falcons team that cannot play 60 minutes and always beats itself. So I like that they're getting a point and a half. I honestly think they should be favored in this game.

It's not like it matters that it's in Atlanta. So that's our second one. We're looking at Carolina plus one and a half. The third one, I can't believe I'm doing this because I wrote them off three weeks ago. The Vikings are plus seven in Seattle. And if you look back at Minnesota's first four games, it actually makes sense why it started out so badly.

Who'd they lose to week one, week two? They got killed by Green Bay. And none of us realized yet it was the Rodgers revival season. And then they lose to Indy, who might be one of the three or four best teams in the league, at least playing like that right now. Week three, they lose to Tennessee by a point in a game they easily could have won. They were leading the fourth quarter. And then last week, they beat Houston. Minnesota,

not as bad as maybe we were feeling they were after week two. Then throw in the Dalvin Cook thing, who looked like the best running back in the league. Honestly, when you're watching the games on all the TVs, every time he gets the ball,

it's like, Jesus. They lucked out with Jefferson, the rookie receiver, being able to actually contribute and do some stuff. They're playing Seattle this week. Seattle, 25th in defensive DVOA. They've allowed 109 first downs in four games. They don't have Jamal Adams. They don't have a pass rush.

Secondary is not that good either. And if there's ever a game for Minnesota to put up like 40 points, this is the game. Now, I hate betting against Russell Wilson, but I feel like this line should be like Seattle by four or four and a half max. Seattle beat Atlanta. Congratulations. They beat the Patriots in a game that if Cam Newton gets in on that last play, it's a loss. They beat Dallas. Congratulations. And they beat Miami. So,

you know, we're treating Seattle like it's this contender and it's really out of respect for Russ, but the defense isn't there yet. And their running backs aren't there. Carson's hurt. We don't know if he's playing this week or not. His backup's Carlos Hyde. He's hurt. And in general, like their running

game last week, Wilson, if you look at their running all season, Wilson's like the best running back on the team, at least the healthiest. So you throw in that this is, you know, Vikings don't want to go one and four, obviously. You're just building.

It's almost a must-win game for them. And I like the fact that Cousins doesn't have to worry about a pass rush or a secondary and can actually, you know, Kirk Cousins on the right game can look pretty good. I think the Vikings can win this game. I love getting plus seven with them. So we're doing them. Now, so those are the three I like the most.

Colts minus one and a half. Carolina plus one and a half. Vikings plus seven. I'm going to go lighter on these next three games. First one is Chargers plus eight and a half against New Orleans. This is a Monday night game that might move to Indianapolis.

Chargers beat Cincy. Then they lose close games to Kansas City, Carolina, Tampa. Their next five games are Jets, Miami, Jacksonville, Vegas, and Denver. If they can somehow either pull off an upset or keep it close and get some momentum to those next five games, they're kind of a dark horse to make the playoffs because Herbert's good. He's just flat out good.

It sucks that Tyrod Taylor lost his job because he got stabbed by the doctor, basically. But Herbert's good, and you have to play him. You just have to. We talked about him on Sunday's pod. He's legit and he's exciting. Between that and the fact

that I think their defense has been pretty frisky, even though it's a little banged up. I don't know. I see them hanging around in this game. The biggest thing for me, the Saints, 26 defensive DVOA. Opponents are 49% on third down

against them. And seven for eight on fourth down. Their defense just hasn't played that well. So with that eight and a half, even if Drew Brees does the whole thing where he completes 100 short passes and you're like,

how the fuck is this working? It could still be a situation where the Chargers are down 14 with three minutes left, and Herbert gets them the garbage time TD. I just think it's too many points. I think the line should be seven. I'm getting three point and a half. Mark that one down.

Second one, Jags plus five against Houston. This is a weird one. This is Houston basically getting a bump because they fired their coach, which would make sense if they didn't fire their coach and replace him with Romeo Cornell. I can't believe we have another chance to bet against Romeo Cornell, 28 and 55 for his career. Last time we saw him, he was the head coach of the 2-14 2012 Chiefs. I remember I got a lot of good jokes that year about that team on Grantland. More importantly, he's 73. I wasn't a huge fan of Romeo as a head coach when he was in his mid-50s, much less his 60s. Now he's 73. He's older than

my dad. So Bill O'Brien, as bad of a GM as he was and as many dumb things as he did, the guy made four playoffs. I really refuse to believe that he was a disaster as a head coach with the playoff record he has. I don't think he was a great head coach,

but I don't think he was a bad head coach. Romeo Cornell has a proven track record of not being a good head coach. So probably going, I don't think he was a bad head coach. Romeo Cornell has proven track record of not being a good head coach. So probably going, I don't love the Jags. But if you look at Houston, they played four games. They have 72 first downs total, 72. To put that in perspective, the Jaguars have 94 first downs, 45% on third down. I don't know why Houston's favored by five. I got to be honest. I don't think Houston's any better or worse than Jacksonville, Cincinnati, all the teams in that kind of bracket.

And it just seems like we're bumping them for no real reason. So I feel like we're getting two free points in that game. And then the third one I wanted to sprinkle a little bit lightly on was Dolphins plus nine at San Francisco. I guess Garoppolo's probably playing. Mullens proved last week he's unplayable. But San Francisco, they beat both New York teams, and they lost to Arizona, and they lost to Philly.

I am not sure they have earned the right to be favored by nine points over anyone that's not the Jets or the Giants. Miami's also not bad offensively. They're 47% on third downs. They can at least move the ball. They can get garbage time stuff. What's killed them is their defense.

They've allowed 16 big plays in four games. And big plays count as 15 plus yard runs or 25 plus yard passes. They've allowed 16 of those. All right. Well, who's making big plays on San Francisco? If Mostert's not playing, it's really just Kittle. So I don't know.

Could the Dolphins keep it close? I think they could. Are the Niners that good? I'm not it close I think they could are the Niners that good I'm not sure here's the thing with the Niners and this is what really intrigues me about this game and liking betting against them their next seven games Rams Patriots Seattle

Green Bay New Orleans bye week Rams Buffalo and we've seen this with the schedule over and over again. The team that has a gauntlet coming up and the one seemingly easy game right before the gauntlet and they go, that's the game they let up on. That was the Chiefs against the Chargers and we too, because they knew they had a huge game the next week against Baltimore. I could see them at least being like, whoa, we'll get this one. And then we have that gauntlet coming. Well, maybe not. Maybe you won't get this one.

I'm intrigued by the Dolphins plus nine. More importantly, oh, there's one more that I'm not going to bet, but I just wanted to mention it. Cincinnati, Baltimore. Since he's getting 12 and a half points against Baltimore, my man Joe Burrow has never not covered against the spread this year. I wanted to do it, especially because I think he could get the garbage time team. Here's why I'm staying away.

Since week seven last year, Baltimore has 12-1. 10 of those 12 wins were by 14-plus points. So basically, they're the king of beating the hell out of bad to mediocre teams. So I'm staying away. But I do want to mention to my man, Joe Burrow, I think you have the garbage time TD in you. All right, long shot parlay of the week before we get to what I'm doing gambling-wise. So this is a rarity. I hit the long shot parlay last week. I've hit two of four. Last week we hit on the Eagles and Browns. They were plus 944. I put 30K on that one, almost

300K. I haven't had a week other than week one where I had almost too many candidates for the long shot parlay of the week. We had the Jags plus 200 against Houston. We have the Vikings plus 260 against Seattle. We have the Dolphins plus 340 against San Francisco. Chargers plus 290 against New Orleans. And then the Giants are plus 310 at Dallas who has no left tackle or right tackle,

no linebackers, and hasn't proven they can beat anybody by three points. I'm going to cross the Giants off only because I watched them last week and their offense, the nine-point performance when they just were turning chicken salad into shit over and over again. Garrett is awful. He's been awful forever.

They're just frustrating. So I just don't want to be frustrated by them because I do think they have the potential of they're winning the game in the fourth quarter and then somehow Dallas wins at the end or whatever and you lose your money line bet. But I do think that game's going to be close and I do think people are going to be dumb enough to put Dallas in a tease like they're a good team. So this long shot parlay thing, I am going to put $20,000 on the following six bets. Ready? Vikings, Chargers, Parley, both have to win. Plus 1344. Vikings, Jags.

Plus 995. My favorite one, Vikings, Dolphins. Plus 1484. Jags, Chargers, plus 1070. Jags, Dolphins, plus 1220. Dolphins, Chargers plus 1070, Jags Dolphins plus 1220, and Dolphins Chargers plus 1660. I am putting 20K on all of those. And if you hit one,

you win all the money back and then some. And if you hit two, it will be wonderful. So I just need two of Jags, Vikings, Dolphins, and Chargers to win in some sort of combination. And if three of those four win, even better. All right, so here's what we're doing. And for million-dollar picks, by the way, for the season,

I made $223,000 last week. I'm down $534,000 for the season. That was with some bad luck. I honestly feel like I'm doing pretty well with these picks, but I definitely have not had great luck. Anyway, putting 300K, Colts minus one and a half over Cleveland. Another 300K, Carolina plus one and a half against Atlanta. Another 300K Vikings plus seven over Seattle. And then sprinkling 100K each on Chargers plus eight and a half in New Orleans, Jags plus five in Houston, Dolphins plus nine in San Francisco. And then the long shot parlay of the week. We're getting ambitious. 20K each on Vikes Chargers plus $13.44. Vikes Jags plus $9.95.

Vikes Dolphins plus $14.84. Jags Chargers plus $10.70. Jags Dolphins plus $12.20. Dolphins Chargers plus $16.16. Sorry, Giants. You couldn't make the cut. Those are the million-dollar picks for Week 5. So I will see you on Sunday night.

Me and Sal. Football. Who knows? Maybe NBA Finals Game 6. I doubt it. Seems like it's going to end tomorrow night. Lakers in 5 winning their 12th NBA title. The Los, Lakers in five, winning their 12th NBA title, the Los Angeles Lakers. They have won 11 NBA titles. This will be their 12th. Congratulations to them in advance.

Don't forget to check out the rewatchables on Monday. We have a really good podcast, so get ready for that one. And then the BS pod coming back. Listen to your podcast on Spotify. And I will see you on Sunday night. I feel it's working On the wayside I'm a bruised son I never was And I don't have To ever