The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The East With Ryen Russillo and Joe House

Episode Date: October 13, 2021

In Part 1 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House for the annual NBA Over/Unders pod. They run through win totals for each team in the Eastern Confe...rence. Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ryen Russillo and Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:02:39 Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. The BS Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can play the over-under game against us. More details on that later in this podcast. We're also brought to you by The Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find Fairway Rowland with Joe House. You can find the Ryan Rosillo Podcast,
Starting point is 00:02:59 and you can find the Rewatchables, which I'm on as well. I did Cobra this week with Kyle Brandt. Coming up, it's the annual Over Under Extravaganza. Rosillo, House, myself. This is part one. What do you want to do, West or East, guys? Let's do the East.
Starting point is 00:03:16 The East is better. All right, we're starting with the East. The East is better than the West. Wow, unexpected. I was going to say West, and now I'm ashamed. Part one, the East. Coming up next, first pro jam. All right. We are taping this.
Starting point is 00:03:52 It is almost 2.30 Pacific time on Tuesday. So if anything happens with Kyrie Irving or Ben Simmons over the next seven, eight hours, don't blame us. We are going to try to not talk about them as much as we possibly can. But as we go through over-unders every year, we pick our over-unders. FanDuel has the totals. We go over, we go under. Every year I kill you guys. We may as well start there. It's been a shellacking every year. Kill? He's dead wrong about this.
Starting point is 00:04:17 It's been a murder. I thought it was pretty close between you and I last year. Now, I remember it as a complete domination. I think you had one more win. We both had really good records. I think you had one more than I did. I remember it as a complete domination. So I can remember it. We both had really good records. I think you had one more than I did. I remember it as 10. This is, this is what a CEO does. He's got CEO memory. No, this is what people do is they, if they're in charge and they have a good year, they let you know. And then when they don't, it was a fluke and it's never mentioned. That's right. One year I was 1911. I'm jinxing myself because I actually- Oh, were you? Tell us more about it.
Starting point is 00:04:45 I had a lot of trouble trying to figure out this year. Usually I like to go top heavy. And then with the lower class, I'll usually go under. Aggressive tops? Yeah. This year, I'm thinking more the middle class could be a little inefficient. But we'll start with Brooklyn. So Brooklyn, over under 56.5.
Starting point is 00:05:09 Minus 195 to win the division. It feels disrespectful. You're jumping right over Atlanta. The alphabet begins with A. Oh, you're doing it by the totals. Yeah. I'm doing it by division this year. So we get a little more context of how things are lumped together.
Starting point is 00:05:22 All right. They're minus 195. The Brooklyn Nets to win their division. Plus 105, the Brooklyn Nets, to win their division. Plus 105 for the conference, plus 210 to win the title. When we do the overrunners, I'm going to ask you guys a question as a little table setter before we actually make our picks. This year at Rosillo, the question was, are they better off just telling Kyrie to go away?
Starting point is 00:05:42 And now we've seen today, they're basically telling Kyrie to go away until he gets vaccinated. Is this a better outcome for them? Is it just better to have this soap opera wiped away for them? Uh, I like the tactic without knowing what the conclusion is, but I thought that it was really telling. Cause we kind of just sat here and be like, I guess they're going to let him do this.
Starting point is 00:06:02 And it felt like, Hey, if you're not all in, this is how we're going to handle this right now. So I don't know if that motivates Kyrie to get, to get the outcome that they want, you know what I'm saying? But I still think they're so good. Like seriously, if they had two of the three guys,
Starting point is 00:06:14 they probably won the title last year. How's, what do you think? Totally agree with all of this. And I think it's a net positive because it just takes all of the energy that you have to expend dealing with something that doesn't help you on the basketball court off the table. I also think that they didn't have
Starting point is 00:06:34 Patty Mills last year. And Patty Mills, he's not an all-star, but he's clutch. You can throw him in big games and he's a little bit of a security blanket. And also, if you know Kyrie's not coming back, you're going to get a buyout guy in February. Now, I don't know what Kyrie's endgame with this.
Starting point is 00:06:50 So we're starting with Kyrie, though. No, no. I think that's why it's so hard with the over-under because we're taking out one of their three major stars and now they have no injury room. 57 and 25 in this world where we're resting guys constantly. And we talked about this. I can't remember one of the podcasts I did a few months ago talking about do the over-unders. Oh, when you and I, we got the initial numbers. Are the over-unders just like two, three wins lower now because of all the resting? Because in the old days you would say net 60 win team, 60 and 22.
Starting point is 00:07:20 That's just how it goes. That's if you're one of the best three teams, you're winning 60. Now it's like, I don't know. Maybe 57 is the new 60. What do you think, Cass? I agree with this. And are we getting to our selections on the number? We're doing it right now. I like a tiny over. I mean, I just think 57 is a good number.
Starting point is 00:07:38 When Harden played last year, they had an incredible record. I think they won it close to a 70% clip. And that gets you to the over. Obviously, they have injury risk and rest risk. But we saw from that playoff run a very compelling case that even one of those guys is enough to make them competitive with the team that can win the whole NBA. So I'm fine with like a tiny over.
Starting point is 00:08:07 Okay. So just to jump in though. All right. Think about this. Last year, they played eight games together and they still won at a 67% clip. And remember how bad the defense was? Remember they had those games against Cleveland and you're going like, oh, this is a problem. And it was like, none of it mattered.
Starting point is 00:08:25 Like all of the data that we got from them to the regular season didn't mean anything. And then when it felt like they were all going to be ready to go, I can't get over that Bucks net series and how close it was and how we felt to Milwaukee going up into like game four or game five. And you're like, Durant still almost pulled this thing off with no Kyrie. And so I like the rest of the team. You're absolutely right, Bill, about the numbers coming in. Because when you look at the totals, you're like, where are the highest totals?
Starting point is 00:08:51 Yeah, the Bucs, spoiler alert, the Bucs were like 55 around there. And it's like, how is that not a 60-win team? Your whole 30-team approach on the over-unders is exactly like, I kept looking at those top numbers going, maybe the rest thing burns you, but I feel aggressive with the top teams. So even with all of these concerns, I don't know what numbers mean. I don't know what...
Starting point is 00:09:11 They still finished 22nd in defense last year and they were one game out of the one seed. So I'm over the 56 and a half. We should mention they added Patty Mills. They played Griffin a whole season. Millsap's here. LaMarcus Aldridge. Millsap's free. Yeah. He played Griffin a whole season. Millsaps here. LaMarcus Aldridge. Millsaps free.
Starting point is 00:09:26 Yeah. He just went there. Right. There's, you watch college way more than I do. House used to watch college. Then he just kind of got old. This Cam Thomas,
Starting point is 00:09:39 is he actually going to play for them? Or is this like the preseason foreplay? Basically where we get excited about preseason um foreplay basically where we get excited about preseason guys and then it's like oh remember we got excited about cam for five minutes if he does the one thing that he did in college and that's just shoot um he's going to be wide open all the time a rational confidence guy absolutely seven minutes a half yeah yeah so whatever whatever you think of confidence it's him now he doesn't like to do a lot of the other things but he can do those things i even like sharp just i mean i always think about brown in Yeah, yeah. So whatever you think of confidence, it's him. Now, he doesn't like to do a lot of the other things,
Starting point is 00:10:05 but he can do those things. I even like Sharp. I mean, I always think about Brown in this role where even if there were other teams that were interested, it's like whatever you saw with the Nets is not the guy you're going to get because he's playing 6'5 center and all these cuts are wide open
Starting point is 00:10:19 because you have to worry about all these other guys, including Joe Harris. I am on the fence now between over and under. Because I thought of one other thing. What if they trade Kyrie and get somebody good for him? Like, what if they traded him to San Antonio and got, I don't know, Murray back and two contracts? How fantastic would it be if they traded him back to Cleveland for Sexton? Isn't Sexton on the block?
Starting point is 00:10:40 I don't know if I would do that if I was Cleveland. Yeah, I know. How do you trade for Kyrie if you're anybody right now? That's right. Well, you do it if you're the Spurs and you have a roster that, you know, you don't have an A-lister on the team and you really have no roadmap. I meant realistic ones because these Spurs trades that we've heard, I still need to know who the Spurs are giving any team in any deal.
Starting point is 00:10:59 Right. But I'm saying if you're the Mets, could you get Murray in two contracts for Kyrie and you call it a day and you don't have to deal with him anymore? I don't think you do that. Send him to Texas? He could play every game there? It's too early. But the crazy thing is, I think it's kind of like the Simmons thing with Philadelphia. If Ben hadn't come back, I still think that team was winning a ton of regular season games.
Starting point is 00:11:15 And I think Brooklyn can still win a lot of regular season games, even with the Kyrie thing being probably the worst it'll be. We'll see. I'm going to go a whiff under. Only because Durant put a lot of miles on himself last year. 33 years old. The Harden thing, who knows? He's older too. There's a lot of moving pieces.
Starting point is 00:11:36 I think the East is better and I think they're going to be right around that number. So I'm going to go a smidge under. I don't feel great about it. Next team, Philly. Over under 51.5. Plus 260 to win the division. 9-1 to win the conference.
Starting point is 00:11:50 House, plus 440 for the play-in game. You could bet on Philly to be 7-8-9 or 10 seed, plus 440 on FanDuel. I thought that was fun. I don't like that. Here's my question. I'll give this to you, House, before we do the over-under. Have we ever spent
Starting point is 00:12:05 more time talking about a less impactful player than Ben Simmons? I'll give you some of the other nominees. There had to be a star. Boogie Cousins, Kevin Love, Derek Coleman, Stefan Marbury, Pete Maravich, Walt Bellamy. Those were the six I came up with. Yeah. You can throw Kenny Anderson in there, but I feel like I was having more Kenny Anderson conversations than normal people. I was so in, I had so much Kenny Anderson stock. That Zahn Tabak sweetener. Yeah. Well, we didn't know we were getting somebody who was having some issues, but yeah, Georgia Tech Kenny. I felt like that was a lot of our conversations in college house was just... Anyway, Ben Simmons, does he deserve all
Starting point is 00:12:50 the attention we're giving him? Well, sure. Yes, of course he does. Okay. Yeah. I mean, he's still impactful. Although out of all those names, I feel like we did spend a lot of time talking about Stephon Marbury. It might've been just us on the phone because the internet didn't exist then, really. Yeah, it wasn't in the same way. Couldn't get on the internet and talk about him. But I do feel like we talked a lot about Stephon Marbury. I think Marbury is still the winner, Rusillo, because he was like, slam magazine covers.
Starting point is 00:13:16 Him and KG, they were the new stock, then Malone. Then he's like, no, no, I'm out. Send me to the Nets. Nothing happens there. Flip for kid. Has that one year with Amari. And it was like they beat the Spurs in that overtime game. It's like, oh, here we go.
Starting point is 00:13:30 No, that didn't happen. Goes to the Knicks. Here we go. Savior. No. Buy out Celtics. Buy out Celtics. Oh, here we go. They got Marbury? Missing piece. No. China? But it just feels like, I think Marbury
Starting point is 00:13:44 is the winner, but I think it's a good conversation. Of all the names you rattled through there, I mean, I have my own Boogie Cousins thing where I've just like, you guys keep talking about him all the time. Like, I don't think you watch him, but it's not to this level.
Starting point is 00:13:57 Marbury is the only one. It's a perfect example. The difference is, there was a family dynamic with Marbury in the New York story that isn't there for Ben Simmons where you have the clutch and LeBron attachment to it you know what I mean where you're like okay is clutch gonna be able to pull off something here unprecedented getting him out of a place with four years left on a contract and and the answer was no the answer was wait how much
Starting point is 00:14:21 money am I losing that's right um yeah I think Maravich is underrated for this topic. We're not the historians that you are. I didn't have Maravich in my top 75. Spoiler alert. I'm probably the only one. Wow. It's like, look, I judge people by, were they good for teams that succeeded in one playoff games?
Starting point is 00:14:39 And he has an absolutely horrific playoff record. He only played for nine years. He had no memorable moments, but was just this really fun, amazing player. But it's like at some point, does winning matter or it doesn't? It doesn't.
Starting point is 00:14:53 When you go 30 and 52 every year and over and over again, your team sucks. That should matter at some point. Yeah. I mean, absolutely. So there you go. That's why I have Maravich one,
Starting point is 00:15:03 uh, over under for Philly. I am just a hard under on this because, uh, too much, absolutely. Yeah, so there you go. That's why I have Maravich one. Over-under for Philly. I am just a hard under on this because too much weirdness. Plus, I don't trust Embiid for six straight months, as great as he is. I have him as one of my nine most important guys, 10, 11. But do I get 60 games from him? Do I get 62?
Starting point is 00:15:21 The Simmons thing is too bizarre for me, and I cannot see this team going 52 and 30. So I'm going under with them too, Hass. What do you have? I'm going to take a tiny over just because I'm a glass half full guy. I prefer to think about what Daryl Morey is going to be able to pull off in terms of this thing. Ultimately, I think we're probably a full two months away, but they demonstrated last year they have the ambition to be one of those top four teams in the nba and they have the talent right now to be in that conversation if the simmons thing gets resolved in any way that feels like a tread water
Starting point is 00:15:57 even for them then the over is the number they were the number one seed in the east and i you know they have a formula for, for winning basketball. The only thing that holds them back when we get to the playoffs will be Doc Rivers, but that's a conversation for the playoffs. Well, no, Ben Simmons,
Starting point is 00:16:12 I'm not anticipating will be on the team come playoff time in 2022. The only thing that held me back was, um, Seth Curry's wife is a huge part of our ring of reality TV show. Now, Callie Curry, great job by her. So I did another,
Starting point is 00:16:24 this is not against the Curry family. When we get to the Warriors, there's going to be a lot of Curry love for the Curry family. So, Russella, what do you have? Under or over? I still think they're going to win a lot of games throughout the Ben Simmons thing. But it is, like House said, it's two different conversations. How do you feel about them in the
Starting point is 00:16:40 regular season? Well, last year they won seed. They won it at 680 clip. 52 and 34 is a 634 clip so you know even these guys you know which we've talked about for years now and i thought it was kind of funny too when they were like hey they flew out the funny thing is the sixers at the very top were just not afraid about this confrontation they were welcoming it like all right go ahead do whatever you want to do darryl darryl had all of hong kong and china and that whole thing he had that whole thing where the entire internet came after him for six months.
Starting point is 00:17:08 The owner certainly doesn't care. Doc Rivers isn't going to care. The owner, from what I heard, was almost looking forward to it. He was like, okay, really? You want to do this? Josh Harris or Rubin? Which one? I'm not going to name names. Oh, okay. Well, I mean, I know Josh Harris is up for the fucking fight. He's the founder
Starting point is 00:17:24 of Apollo. Yeah, Doc Rivers is going to care. And the Philly fan base certainly isn't well i mean i know josh harris is up for the fucking fight he's the founder of apollo yeah and the philly fan base certainly isn't going to be like oh my god what are we doing with simmons in a weird way i admire everybody though throughout it like i admire that we felt like the first time that a gm just went nah i'm not doing it and the ownership was absolutely like yeah we don't care like all right fine and then i think there was a a story where Ben Simmons thought he was going to get that second installment before. And then it was like, oh, you're not getting that one either.
Starting point is 00:17:49 And you're like, oh, shit. Now that just cost me eight million bucks. Yeah, oof. So wait, maybe this isn't the greatest idea. He's like, wait, that's like eight private jets.
Starting point is 00:17:56 But it's just another lesson in like how much the noise doesn't matter. You know, it's the great thing of the many great things about Belichick. But it's just like, I'm not going to worry
Starting point is 00:18:04 about all that stuff. And people are like, oh, you can never bring him back. You can never bring him back. He can never be there. And Dary. But it's just like, I'm not going to worry about all that stuff. And people are like, oh, you can never bring him back. You can never bring him back. He can never be there. And Daryl's like, all right, I don't want to trade him for nothing. And he's going to come back. We're going to figure it out. And then on the other side with Clutch, you're like, oh, you guys got work.
Starting point is 00:18:14 It's like, no, we try to get our guy out with four years left. And they didn't budge. And another GM probably would have. And those guys didn't budge. But when they talked about trying to make it work, what i thought was hilarious was the solution was to play together less as we've all been banging our heads against the wall it just doesn't work at the close of those four to six minute stretches of the playoffs yeah we've seen it so many times you know i know what the plus minus is i know what all those things are but those are the times you evaluate everything and it was like doc emphasized
Starting point is 00:18:42 to playing them together less you'll be well, that'll fix all your problems. The fundamental problem we will accept and we will make sure the minutes are a lot of that way, except we have to win some of these. None of that stuff matters to the regular season. I have a slight, slight under, even though I still think
Starting point is 00:18:59 this team could end up as a one seed. So I was the only over. Yeah, I'm going two unders, one over. I disagree. I think Clutch handled this horribly. They cost a guy a million dollars and people think less of them. I think that's a loss.
Starting point is 00:19:12 I think it's all temporary. I think it's incredibly temporary stuff. It's bad headlines. Some of the stuff that got leaked about he doesn't feel like it can ever work with Embiid again. He was in the wrong mental state. They did. They were exactly right. They had no leverage. They tried to manufacture it. They were with Embiid again. He was in the wrong mental state. They went for it.
Starting point is 00:19:25 They did. They were exactly right. They had no leverage. They tried to manufacture it. They were never going to have leverage. It was poorly handled. I'll be interested to see where he goes. It's like somebody who gets arrested on a plane and they go, hey, the meds and the little scotch.
Starting point is 00:19:36 That's it? I don't know what happened. Is that right? They're like, actually, no one- I didn't realize those little bottles packed so much punch. But then they're like, we never served you. And you're like, ah, I gave it a shot.
Starting point is 00:19:46 Well, House is right, though. These things do have a way of just being completely fine a month later. I don't know if this will happen here, because from a Philly fan standpoint, I think it's going to be, I'm not going to say impossible, because nothing's impossible, but close to impossible for him to win that fan base back. I don't even know what his month of stellar play would have to look like
Starting point is 00:20:08 for the Philly fans to be like, you know what? We were wrong. We're actually backing on you. But remember, everybody's selfish. And if he's good and it lets Philly fans think all of a sudden, we have, wait, maybe we got something. I mean, Philly fans have been lying to themselves about this combo for half a decade.
Starting point is 00:20:26 It's true. So if he comes out and tears it up and they split the minutes and he looks good, I mean, he's going to be in great shape. But you know what's going to happen if he has one good game? Trade him. This is it. There's 20 trades. Ben Simmons, triple-double.
Starting point is 00:20:38 We got to get rid of him. There's things that worry me about this team. One of which was even downgrading from Dwight Howard to Andre German. Did you see Andre German in the preseason? Is he now 370 pounds? He looks like Andre the Giant in the late eighties. Like you watch him walk around. He's can't move anymore.
Starting point is 00:20:58 It's funny to me that you call that a downgrade. Yeah. But I thought Dwight Howard had like valuable regular season minutes for them. He was at least protection during the 20 games Joel's not going to play. Now it's like they're going to have this weird Andre Drummond thing. He can't shoot free throws either. Putting him, who's somehow a worse free throw shooter than Dwight Howard, with Ben
Starting point is 00:21:15 Simmons, who can't shoot free throws at all. I don't know. I think the East is better. I think this is an under for me. The Boston Celtics, over under 45 and a half. Plus 850 for the division. A little sneaky with this Kyrie thing. It's like now they're
Starting point is 00:21:29 one KD injury away from maybe. Plus 140 for the playing game house. I know you're going to make like 20 playing bets. 51 for the title. My question for you,
Starting point is 00:21:40 Russillo, are Tatum and Brown the best under 25 combo in the league? I did all the research. So here are the three other nominees because some people are 25 and up. Aiton and Booker are both under 25. Zion and Ingram. And Luca, and you can have anyone else on the maps. Those are your three points. But Tatum and Brown, it was more of a slam dunk for them to be the answer than I realized
Starting point is 00:22:05 yeah because I still think there's some stuff where as much as we fell in love with Aiton there's still going to be a little bit of Aiton inconsistency I think we all kind of romanticize about what the ceiling for Tatum and Brown can be because they keep improving all the time but the real ceiling is going to be what can they be
Starting point is 00:22:21 forget the numbers like can you guys start winning some of these games and show that toughness? So, yeah, I don't think it's a terrible selection of the two. It's just that Doncic is just another level than every guy that you named. House? That's true.
Starting point is 00:22:33 Who would you rather have? I just gave you those four pairings. One of the choices can be Luka and Jalen Brunson, if you want. No, it's Tatum and Brown to me as well. Although, I'm rooting for the Cleveland, I mean, the Phoenix guys to close the gap a little bit. The Aiden thing's a little unfair because
Starting point is 00:22:49 he just was made to look bad by Giannis who was having an out-of-body experience and going to a completely other level. Yeah, he had no backup center. No back. No one to help at all. He had to be careful of foul trouble. Because of the Sarich injury. Yeah. Dario Sarich. Yeah, who knew? Crucial. I don't know that that was going to be... It was a body. He was six fouls. Because of the Sarich injury. Yeah. Dario Sarich. Yeah, who knew? Crucial.
Starting point is 00:23:06 I don't know that that was going to be, it was a body. He was six fouls. But that's it. It was a body. They didn't have another body. That poor guy's been out of position since he came to the league. I don't know what his position is,
Starting point is 00:23:16 but it's just. Well, the Celts, they add Schroeder, which was a steal. I didn't love the offseason until Schroeder happened. Schroeder's a steal. I liked it,
Starting point is 00:23:24 because I thought it was smart. No, Schroeder for a steal. I liked it because I thought it was smart. Schroeder for $6 million. I know. He was the third best player in the Lakers last year. The Lakers fans have tainted everyone on Schroeder. I'm not saying I was the most giant fan. I don't think the fans tainted. I think he tainted himself.
Starting point is 00:23:35 I think the league not stepping up at any point, him having to take a one-year deal, wasn't just Lakers fans. I agree. Do we know for sure he turned down the $84 million or whatever? Because I'm not convinced that ever happened. I don't think it was ever offered to him. Then he needs to say something about it.
Starting point is 00:23:49 He said something. He said that was never offered that contract. I don't know why people keep saying that. He did? Oh, I missed that. Yeah, he said it. We all missed it then. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:58 I didn't miss it because my new guy, Dennis Schroeder. Schroeder. Schroeder. My dad is just... He's calling him Dennis. He's out. It's like I'm not even... He's calling him Dennis or the German guy. Schroeder. Schroeder. My dad is just, he's calling him Dennis. He's out. It's like I'm not even, he's calling him Dennis
Starting point is 00:24:06 or the German guy. He's out. But yeah, so they have him, second year Pritchard, Al Horford. They turned Kemba's, you know,
Starting point is 00:24:15 semi-corpse into Al Horford who at least, you know. Congratulations. Al Horford looked okay on OKC last year. Like he'll definitely be able to play.
Starting point is 00:24:23 They have a lot banking on Time Lord. They gave him a very tradable contract. We still have not seen him play two good weeks in a row. Yeah, that's fair. Nobody leads the league more in blocks that send them into a camera guy and they sprain something or hurt. Marcus is back.
Starting point is 00:24:40 Wancho, they're a little excited about. I've always liked Wancho. He's in an Adam Sandler movie. It might be the year of Wancho. And this 45.5. Now, don't call me Homer because last year I went under. I didn't like the look of last year's team. I actually liked the 40. I think they're going to be good. The new coach, Bollinger heard good things and they feel like a 47, 48 to me. So I'm going over and I might even, could be a possible lock for me. What do you got, House? They're not a lock for me. This one's a real tough one for me.
Starting point is 00:25:10 I like them at 45 or 46. I have so far gone over with my first two, so I'm just going to say 45. 45 and 37. That makes me feel even better about the Celtics season. This is the best thing that happened since the Schroeder contract. do you have Rizzo
Starting point is 00:25:25 I went into it thinking under because I immediately can name a handful of teams that I like better in the east yeah but I still think this team is pretty good yeah and if you go one through six one through seven if Williams is healthy you've got something here and you've got some
Starting point is 00:25:42 adaptability whether you can go Horford big, you can actually play him. Al Horford always should have been a power forward. He played center almost his entire career. I think smart getting the contract helps. I mean, he's going to have his moments,
Starting point is 00:25:55 you know, I think that the market for him in the trade market was more limited than I think people would ever realize. And so it was like, you know what? Do the extension. It's, he's still a good player. You know what I mean?
Starting point is 00:26:07 I know you and I probably feel like we're perceived as guys when we're down on smart, which is fine. It's a way better situation this year because they have multiple ball handlers now. Yeah. You want him off the ball versus being Oscar Robertson, basically. I think Neesmith actually showed some signs of a pulse at the end of last year. So when you add it all all up you go hey there's a version of this but it
Starting point is 00:26:28 really comes down to one thing that we talked about last year they were a soft fucking team yep and so what you hope is with a new coach who's saying the right things that you get through to these guys and some stuff because it was funny i was talking to some other people like going back and looking at clips of some of the stuff they did as a team. And you're like, what the hell is wrong with you guys? Like there needs to be some kind of edge.
Starting point is 00:26:53 And if they don't have it, then I'm going to be really freaked out because that'll kind of be, or maybe the personality of this team is just that, you know, who's going to give it to them as the coach by all accounts. I think he's like a tough dude. I think Schroeder will help. Cause he's a dick.
Starting point is 00:27:06 And I mean that in a positive way. They needed an agitator that wasn't smart. But Tatum and Brown kind of have to like... One of those guys has to be a little tougher. I need a little more edge. I think Neesmith might be tough too. What do you got, House? Because he's landscaped growing up. And Grant Williams, now that he's running the Players Association with CJ McCollum.
Starting point is 00:27:22 I think that's just the leadership from that. House, what do you have? You have a defensive anchor. You really, really, really, really need Robert Williams to play 60 games. Yeah, it's a high-ceiling team because of him, because of Neesmith. There's a scenario where
Starting point is 00:27:37 a bunch of things... Tristan won't be out there anymore. That's a good thing, right? I don't think people understand. We talked about it in this pod a couple times, how bad Kemba was last year.? Oh, no, I'm with you. I don't think people understand. We talked about it. We talked about it in this pod a couple of times, how bad Kemba was last year. And it's like, I'm not shitting on the guy.
Starting point is 00:27:51 He was just bad. And even if he had nights where he got 24. He gave up 38. He would get torched. The Grant Williams number that I saw, he's fouling seven times per 100 possessions or something like that. Yeah, I'm hoping we don't see a lot of Grant. It's too bad.
Starting point is 00:28:05 Also, Cantor's back. My dad's favorite Celtic of the last 10 years. Just loves those low post guys. My dad, when he sees Shangoon, he's going to lose his mind. It's like, oh my God, Shangoon backdowns. What is happening? My dad is just, he's the last person who believes in low post, drop steps and jump hooks.
Starting point is 00:28:23 I want Alperin and Cantor to open up a big man camp where they only work on post moves and there's no other end of the court for defensive rotations. Yeah, it's fine. Half court. Like, we need to work on our footwork. So, Russell, you went over or under? I went over. Okay, great. Beantown. That's a possible
Starting point is 00:28:40 lock for me. All right, we're three in the books. We're going to take a break. Come back with the next. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. New York Knicks, over under 41 and a half, plus 105 for the playing game.
Starting point is 00:29:29 79 or 10. You're basically getting even money. They have Kemba, who we just talked about, who I'm not a huge fan of. Great guy. Loved him to death. I just felt like he was playing on one leg. They signed Fournier, who came to the Celtics, immediately got COVID and pretty much sucked for them. I don't, I don't know how much of that was his fault, but then was good in the Olympics. Some people are back on him. They re-signed,
Starting point is 00:29:53 uh, Alec Burks, uh, Rose, Toppin, maybe, Randall, lockdown.
Starting point is 00:30:01 There's a Mitchell Robinson, New Orleans, Noel combo for them. But none of that is my question, Russillo. Here's my question. Is this team honestly trying to win in 2022 or are they just laying the breadcrumbs for a Dame
Starting point is 00:30:16 or Carl Anthony Towns trade? What do you think their purpose of this season was? Okay, they've been linked to right the Kentucky-Louisville group with the way they've staffed that we've brought this up before i really get really mad when i brought up the booker thing last year but you know look it looks like phoenix in a great spot you don't have to worry about it anymore but it's always going to be the donovan mitchell stuff it's always going to be the carl anthony
Starting point is 00:30:35 towns and it's always going to be happening um but in the meantime that doesn't seem to be what they're doing at all like they signed they they throw out a ton of contracts, again, short-term contracts. They have good depth. So for me to say, hey, they're just doing this all because they're going to get this free agent. You know how many teams do stuff where they're planning out two, three years ahead of time? What's the win rate on that? Is it 10%? But maybe the new free agent is the guy who has three or four years left on his deal that you're banking on being unhappy. Seems to be the new free agent because it doesn't seem like there's any actual free agents anymore. It hasn't happened yet, but you're right.
Starting point is 00:31:11 It happened with Hardin. The free agency, well, he only had a year plus with the option. Right, but still he was available under a contract. But you are making a bigger point that's going around now. And that is when guys started doing the short deals with LeBron, kind of being the first guy to go, hey, let's go short. Let's get the opt-outs year to year. That was LeBron just basically keeping Cleveland. He felt like if I have you worried every single year, you have to give in. And it's like, I don't know if you needed to do that, but that was their approach. Now the thinking is everybody's just maxing out and now I'll just get mad.
Starting point is 00:31:43 So yeah, planning for free agency and hoarding cap space was never that great of a plan before. It was totally overrated by all of us, the outside. Now it's like the worst plan. I'm zagging. I think it was a good plan
Starting point is 00:31:56 more than people remember. For who? It worked for the Celtics. They ended up getting Horford and Hayward back to back years. Hayward just got hurt. It worked for the Clippers. They ended up with Kawhi and the Paul George thing.
Starting point is 00:32:08 What about all the other teams that do it? It worked for the Lakers. They got LeBron. Yeah, there's 30 teams that didn't work for it. I'm just saying there are examples of where it worked. I didn't say it was zero. I'm just saying. The Miami Heat, Heat culture.
Starting point is 00:32:19 Heat culture, but I mean, they were sitting there going, we got Giannis, we're going to get Giannis. The things people seem to remember, like the Knicks getting Amari Stoudemire or the Bulls ending up with Boozer. I'm talking about if you're a team, other than like the handful of four or five, going, I'm just going to wait.
Starting point is 00:32:34 It just seems like this next generation of players is going, no, no, no, I'm going to take every single dollar. I'm not going to do short deals. So the move is assets, shorter deals, which is kind of what the Knicks did. House, you think they're laying the breadcrumbs for a trade or you think they actually think they can win the title with this team? Both.
Starting point is 00:32:50 I think they're doing both things. And by the way, the answer to your proposition, the teams you rattled off as examples of success, think about those markets and those teams, desirable markets and desirable teams. I mean, Boston has its issues market-wise but uh in terms of the franchise you know anthony davis was not impressed by kawaii wasn't paul george wasn't yeah well other than those three guys and probably seven more yeah uh-huh so the next but i think the knicks are doing both i think they're they're very well positioned
Starting point is 00:33:25 congratulations to New York Knicks fans I think they're incredibly well positioned for Dame if Dame becomes available which I don't think he will versus the Sixers
Starting point is 00:33:34 where if you're in Portland I'm like do I really want Ben Simmons that's that's going to be our press I think Portland would want Ben Simmons but I mean the one
Starting point is 00:33:41 over the Knicks package if I could get RJ and I could get Toppin and I could get some picks I'm taking that over Ben Simmons, but I mean the one over the next package, if I could get, uh, RJ and I could get top in and I could get some picks. I'm taking that over Ben Simmons. RJ really improved from three. I like RJ. If he's on the table, that's getting my attention. He's like 21 years old. I think he really gives a shit. I think that's a guy who was like, what am I not good at? I'm going to try to get better at it versus Ben Simmons. Who's bad at the same things every year. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:34:06 So wait, you're saying in a vacuum, you'd rather have RJ Barrett than Ben Simmons? No, I'm saying I would rather have a trade led by an RJ Barrett package. If I get Barrett and Toppin and some picks. There's just not enough there for Dame right now. There's just not enough for Dame. If he's available.
Starting point is 00:34:20 I think Portland's going to be pretty good, as we're going to cover in part two. House, 41 and a5 for the over. It's probably the toughest over on this entire board. They feel like they're going to... I think it's impossible for them to win 41.5, but if any team could, it's them. They could
Starting point is 00:34:35 finish 41.5 and 38.5. For the first team in history to do that, it feels like the Knicks. I have a slight over for them because of Tibbs. Yeah, that's all. I think they have depth,
Starting point is 00:34:49 which depth is going to be important, especially this year because who the fuck knows what's going to happen. But they feel like they're in that 43 to 44 win range. What do you have? Totally agree with that. I mean, there is going to be regression. I don't think they're not going to win
Starting point is 00:34:59 the same number of games as last year. I don't think they're going to be the four seed again this upcoming year, but they are going to be the four seed again this upcoming year. But they are going to play hard and in the regular season. Get great crowds. That matters. Think about the enthusiasm for the Knicks and MSG. That's right.
Starting point is 00:35:15 Competitive team. They improved in the offseason. Yeah, I like they're over. I don't understand why it came out so low. Because Vegas is smart. Because I, in preparation for this, I like they're over. I don't understand why it came out so low. Because Vegas is smart. Because I, in preparation for this, was like, I can't wait to see the Knicks number, and I'm taking the under, I'm taking the under, I'm taking the under.
Starting point is 00:35:33 And the number came in, and you were like, yeah, they're on it. Because remember last year, they were the overachieving team. That's right. It was this amazing story. What were they on, like a 48-win pace last year or something like that? They won. If you prorated it? They were at a 569
Starting point is 00:35:45 clip. They were 41 and 31. So they were 10 over in a short season. So that's like basically 48 and 34, 49 and 33 in a real season. That's a real record. Totally. And yet they go into that Atlanta series and I remember you and I Bill doing it and I go, you know, I don't know. Because there were just series that jumped out at you. There was one the more you dug
Starting point is 00:36:02 into it, I go, hey, you know what's kind of funny with all the Milwaukee angst about the Heat? This series shouldn't even be close. Like what Miami's doing offensively or more importantly, not doing, they're like,
Starting point is 00:36:11 I don't know. And when you started doing like guy for guy, even though Randall's regular season numbers against Atlanta were absurd, you're just like, there's no way Atlanta's
Starting point is 00:36:18 losing this series. None. And so, in a weird way with that success, I still wasn't that high on him, even though I respected it. So I thought the number,
Starting point is 00:36:27 I thought they'd put it up at like 47 or whatever, based on that win total and an improving roster. And they're basically saying 500. So I'm over now. Yeah, I'm over. Cause this team's deep and there's one number, every Knicks preview read,
Starting point is 00:36:40 it's always the same number. Their opponent shot 33.7% from three lowest in the league. And they'll basically, the argument is it's not always 33.7% from three lowest in the league. And they'll basically, the argument is it's not always defense. There's some randomness in that, but that number was trumpeted out there throughout half halfway mark of the season being like, this has to correct at some point.
Starting point is 00:36:55 It actually didn't. So yeah, it's a scary number, but they're deep and they're basically saying 500. So I'll, I'll go over. Fournier is going to be weirdly helpful to them. They didn't have any perimeter
Starting point is 00:37:05 guy who could have the ball and you could run a play for them. And especially like even the last three minutes of a game where... Burks a little bit can get it going. He's a little heat checky, but not... Fournier can create a shot for himself. You might not always like the shot, but
Starting point is 00:37:21 I really like Bullock. I thought he was good for them. But if it's a question of like what Fournier brings to the table for them, I thought that was important. And Fournier and Kemba are an improvement over Alfred Payton and Bullock. Well, that's true. That's true. The thing with Kemba, and I think he's not going to succeed for them, but quickly we'll get more minutes anyway. It's a good risk Kemba will have like his two week stretches where his knee's feeling good and he scores for them
Starting point is 00:37:48 and people get excited he's an unbelievable teammate he also if he takes the training part of it a little bit more seriously than he did pre-bubble and everything I know there's debates about it a little more seriously he didn't take it seriously at all yeah so that might be a little bit of a kick in the ass a wake up call too
Starting point is 00:38:04 and be like look I probably didn't give this the best effort the first time through and this thing's lingered the whole time. The ceiling thing for them is Robinson who just had two bad luck injuries last year. And if he can actually play real minutes and get to like 65 games
Starting point is 00:38:20 combined with... And they still have Kevin Knox. And Knox. We'll see with him. I like Toppin. I like the way he rose to the occasion in those playoff games. I thought he didn't seem scared to me. I just think it's a bad situation
Starting point is 00:38:33 because him and Randall play the same position. Are we giving out locks yet? Or are we waiting? We're waiting. Okay. Toronto. So we're all over for the Knicks.
Starting point is 00:38:40 Congrats to the Knicks. Toronto. I thought this was a tough one. Over under 36 and a half. Impossible. Playing game. Wow. Playing game plus 110.
Starting point is 00:38:50 No, not that number. The number is impossible. I don't know what Toronto's doing. Toronto's impossible to me. No, no. That's all I'm saying. Okay.
Starting point is 00:38:56 Much smarter response. Thank you. So for the listeners, they got Dragic in the laboratory. It's not nothing. You nailed that pronunciation. Dragic? Thank you. Did you work on not nothing. You nailed that pronunciation. Dragic?
Starting point is 00:39:05 Thank you. Did you work on that? We're one for one. I went to pronunciation camp. I've been working on it. I don't know. So they have a Van Vliet-Dragic thing. Vazelika.
Starting point is 00:39:14 Say that. There's a weird defense lineup. Zach wrote about it in his league pass rankings today where they can go Ananobi, Siakam, Scotty Barnes, Boucher, and Precious, and just be like, here's just five crazy athletes, and Scotty Barnes, I guess, will play point guard, but we're just going to switch on everything and chase down everything,
Starting point is 00:39:35 and we're kind of a nightmare. Wait, did he have OG in that? Yeah. Okay, yeah, yeah. I love OG. And I've never seen— Well, Zach predicted a breakout year for him for the fifth year in a row. He's on pace.
Starting point is 00:39:46 I tweeted, it's the official start of the season when Zach says, Zanonobi, it's the year. The great thing about Zach Collins is he just calls himself out mid-sentence like four or five times. He's mad at himself.
Starting point is 00:39:59 Yeah, he's like, I get it. This is stupid. Here we go. I love his faith in OG because I love that guy. I want two OG Ananobis on my team everywhere. And I've never seen
Starting point is 00:40:08 Boucher miss a three ever. Whenever I watch him, he doesn't miss a single shot. So here's my question for you, House. Toronto. Stealth tank team or kind of secret defensive nightmare that actually might be good and tough to play?
Starting point is 00:40:24 You have to pick one what do you pick I don't know I think they're I'm going in the direction of them having a sneaky successful season because I trust Masai and Nick Nurse and last season was such
Starting point is 00:40:40 a weird like there's it's unprecedented right they're not playing in your own city. You can't come up with an analog to that. Exactly right. So, I'm going to do Glass Half Full with Toronto.
Starting point is 00:40:56 Even though the Siakam thing remains a conundrum. What's the deal with that? Labrum. I was looking it up this morning. I don't like Labrum. The most recent thing I said was a medium-sized chunk of the season.
Starting point is 00:41:09 Well, I don't know what that means. Yeah. And look, he was miserable. Right. And you know, if you guys are going to be players... What's a medium-sized chunk of the season mean? I can't.
Starting point is 00:41:17 I'm fascinated to find out. Is that like 30 games? That's what it felt like. Why did it get to 30? That might swing my pick. I was going to go over for them. The front court is not, um,
Starting point is 00:41:27 well, yeah. Who's re who's rebounding for this team would be my other question. Precious. And precious is one of those guys I think we all like, but when they actually needed him last year, it was pretty rough. He seemed pretty far away to me.
Starting point is 00:41:41 I liked his intensity, but I just think it's so weird to have home be somewhere. That's not home, but... I just think it's so weird to have home be somewhere that's not home at all. I just think it's too weird to try and draw any conclusions from last season. I think it's going to be hard for them to score on many nights. I think Barnes is probably a year away from being...
Starting point is 00:42:01 I don't see him being an impactful rookie. I think he could have moments, but I don't see the... That's not really his game think he could have moments, but I don't see like the, that's not really his game. It's not like they're gonna be clearing out for Scottie Barnes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I think it's,
Starting point is 00:42:10 that's gonna be offensively, wouldn't you agree, a work in progress for a year or so. Yeah, because the thing with Scottie Barnes, like if you stick him in the corner, and Nick Nurse is too smart for this, and that's why I'm actually glad Barnes is in Toronto. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:22 Because when you watched him, the joy of his game was all the other stuff he could do. He legit can guard every position. And he's an incredible passer, and he's just smart as hell. But if you stick him in the corner, then everybody's going to be like, wait a minute, we took this guy how high?
Starting point is 00:42:37 Yeah. I imagine because Van Vliet's been good at sharing with Lowry, and depending on what the Siakam situation is long term because even if he has some frustrations with Siakam which I think are legitimate because he seemed to be pretty pouty for a long time here and you're like hey man you're pretty good like nice nice proving everybody wrong but like
Starting point is 00:42:56 you guys want a title up there like how pissed can you be at this situation you know Nick Nurse everybody sits there and raves about him on the air and the stuff off the air that you hear about him so I'm Barnes is not going to be like hey here we go like he's carrying us offensively but you got to let him run some of the offense through him and I think Van Vliet's a willing guy uh because the way he's been kind of brought up in the whole thing by the way the
Starting point is 00:43:20 Lowry thing worked out I mean if you get Drag Dragic, and he's not prime Dragic. You didn't have to pay Lowry 30 plus million to not win a title with him. Is Dragic still asking for a buyout? So that's the thing. If you're saying under, you're saying Siakam doesn't come back until mid-December.
Starting point is 00:43:37 Dragic is either traded to Dallas in January or he just gets bought out. And they look at the situation and go, we could be a bottom four. He's team. Get one more lottery pick. We're good to go. The over situation would be,
Starting point is 00:43:49 we're going to be a beast defensively. Dragic and Van Vliet together. It'd be a bitch to play. I don't, not excited to play that. And maybe they luck out with Boucher, make a trade for a big man. I don't like their size at all.
Starting point is 00:44:02 And there's some Kim Birch, all the Kim Birch hive. This is the year. We're going to find out once and for all some Kim Birch. All the Kim Birch hives. This is the year where you're going to find out once and for all with Kim Birch. When I look at depth charts, I see Kim Birch. I'm always like,
Starting point is 00:44:11 all right, but never as the starter. Yeah, when he's in the bold, when he's in the bolded lineup, you're like, uh-oh. I don't like Kim Birch this month. So, I'm going to go slight under.
Starting point is 00:44:24 I think it's more likely they tank than that they're good. But I don't feel good about it at all. I would not bet on it. What do you got, House? I'm joining you. I'll do the tiniest under ever. 36 wins. Priscilla? I've had such a hard time with this. And you're right. The beginning of House
Starting point is 00:44:39 when you said impossible. I mean, they were middle of everything statistically in a bunch of stuff last year. East is better. Record was atrocious. But they also got smashed with COVID. They had those stretches where nobody was playing. If Siakam were good to go,
Starting point is 00:44:55 and I go, hey, Dragic, Van Vliet, OG, Siakam, Kem Birch, I'm over. I'm Nick Nurse factor alone. You know what? I might just zag here. Go. Go, Sam. I think it's a great zag.
Starting point is 00:45:07 Somebody had to zag. Give me 37 wins with the Rapine. One of the three of us had to zag. All right. We're switching divisions to whatever the division Miami is called. Miami, over under 48 and a half. Division is minus 105. Conference plus 950.
Starting point is 00:45:21 Title 25 to 1. They are plus 230 for the playing game house. It's like one Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler injury away from seven seed potential. To have P.J. Tucker on their team, which I'm really excited about, I think he could average 0.0 points a game this year. It's very possible.
Starting point is 00:45:38 While everybody talks about his box ass. You've been talking about P.J. Tucker. Why do you hate P.J. Tucker? I don't. It's just you're playing four and five. And I think it's fine if you have Giannis on your team. But in this situation, I'm not as excited about it. Do you want to guess what his points per 100 possessions was?
Starting point is 00:45:53 What was it? So that's 100 possessions. Yeah. 6.7. Wow. It was the worst of anyone in the league that qualified. And I guess it was a significant jump up from the second worst. So I have strong thoughts on this over-under,
Starting point is 00:46:10 but I'm going to ask you this, Rosillo. That's my one question. What's their next move if this mix of guys doesn't totally work? Because I do think there's a world in which the mix of all these dudes isn't quite right. I think they're really painfully weak on the wing. I wonder about defensively. It's just a lot to put on Jimmy Butler night after night.
Starting point is 00:46:36 And you'd be like, well, they have P.J. Tucker. It's like, all right, we have P.J. Tucker. Now I'm playing four and five. Markeith Morris, all right. Has Markeith Morris ever knocked your socks off? You're going down the line, and this is a wings league in a lot of ways in certain matchups. And I just feel like they can get torched on that. And now they have some shooting, they have some scoring Lowry and a new team. Lowry is going to be what? 36, 37. It's been
Starting point is 00:46:59 in the league a long time. And, and, you know, he's had some injuries. I worry about that. So my question is, what is the next move? If, if you don't like how this looks two months in, what do you do? Well, I think the next move just happened. I think it is the three-year extension for 85 million for Lowry. I mean, he got his money. So you think this is their team and we're good to go. This is what we're doing. Yeah. When, when people were afraid to trade for Lowry during the trade deadline and I had heard he's asking for two for 50. It's like,
Starting point is 00:47:27 he got more. Yeah. And he's going to be, as you said, uh, 35, he's 35 now. Butler's 32.
Starting point is 00:47:36 He did a four year, 186 million extension. And I, I think the small move is Bam staying. So there's your three max guys for the next three year window. So hero is the wild card. That's, that's the only thing I can come up with when you ask him the small move, because Bam's staying, so there's your three max guys for the next three-year window. So Hero is the wild card? So that's the only thing I can come up with when you're asking the question, is Hero, from two years ago to now,
Starting point is 00:47:53 I just hear about him through Jack Harlow stuff. Massive step back in that second year. There's a lot of Hero hype right now. Okay, that's cool, and I'm far from it. The NBA's leading preseason scorer heading into the weekend. So, okay. That's cool. And I'm far from- The NBA's leading preseason score heading into the weekend. Okay. That's great to know. There's a lot of, he's the youngest player in their roster still.
Starting point is 00:48:12 You don't realize how young Tyler Hero is. That's when like David Brent's like, you ever heard of the little outfit from Texas? We open for him. You're like, okay. Look, I'm not anti-tyler hero at all i'm just saying if if if you're asking me hey what's the next move it's giving up on the younger guys around this core that's going to be old that i don't know what the pivot is from here like what's lowry who's defied odds for a bunch of different reasons yeah and he's really good, but what's he going to be like in two more years? And by the way, it's not like he cares about his body,
Starting point is 00:48:48 which is the thing I think you admire about him, but he hasn't been necessarily pacing himself. And he's had some dings. Yeah, I don't think he's... He's a car that, if you were saying, how many miles does his car have? Yeah. They probably turned the odometer back with him.
Starting point is 00:49:03 It's like, yeah, it's only 52,000 miles. He said, nah, it's 152. Come on. Yeah. They probably turned the odometer back with him. It's like, yeah, it's only 52,000 miles. He said, nah, it's 152. Come on. Yeah. You definitely flipped the odometer. Why was this in a body shop in Reno for a month? House. Kyler Lowry said a couple days ago,
Starting point is 00:49:14 Tyler is the one guy that has been extremely impressive. He's been playing his butt off. He's the one guy that's been truly impressive to me. I think he's the next move if this doesn't work. That's fine. Because I think he has real trade value. He does. And they can patch him with things,
Starting point is 00:49:28 but... Of course. No, if he's good again, I just, the preseason thing for me doesn't mean anything. I thought he was bad last season. He was.
Starting point is 00:49:35 And so were they. They were inconsistent. So you like this core or you think there's one more move? I like this core and I think there could be one more move. I mean,
Starting point is 00:49:42 it's a little bit of a wait and see. Do you think there's another big move for them, I think there could be one more move. I mean, it's a little bit of a wait and see. Do you think there's another big move for them? I think... So I look at it this way. I like knowing what teams' crunch times are. And with this team, it's clearly going to be
Starting point is 00:49:55 Lowry, Robinson, Butler. I think they have to play Tucker in crunch time and bam. And if you play Hero instead of PJ, I think you're in real trouble defensively. You're at, you're asking Lowry and Butler to basically guard the best perimeter guys in the other team.
Starting point is 00:50:13 And I don't, Butler's, you know, he's been in the league a while. I'm not saying he can't do it for like one game or one quarter, but if you're talking about the grind of a season, that starts adding up. They didn't play him a lot, though, in the beginning of his career, but he was old coming in. He was old coming in.
Starting point is 00:50:30 And then you throw in a couple of Tibbs years and those are like two. So maybe it all evens out. I don't think they're going to win their division. He was awesome last year, though. He was. He was awesome. So I think he would have to be even more awesome to hit this 48 and a half as the overhouse. I'm taking the over.
Starting point is 00:50:45 You're taking the over. I'm going hard under on this one. I like them. I think they're right. You know, they're somewhere in between 47 and 52. Interesting. Since LeBron left, Spolstra teams four to the four and two versus the over under. Four out of the last six seasons.
Starting point is 00:51:04 Wow. That's bringing stats in. What's wrong with that? No, it's really good. I didn't know we were doing that. Now I feel inadequate. The institutional stability of Miami. And the reason that we hear all these nice things about Tyler Hero is because those vets understand how important he is to their success.
Starting point is 00:51:22 And that's why they're building him up. They want that rational confidence to return. I like that mix that they have. And I think they're pretty deep. So I'm taking a tiny over. I'm going under because I don't think they care about the regular season that much. And I think they're going to rest guys.
Starting point is 00:51:38 And I think their priority is going to be, we want Lowry and Butler 100% heading into the season. And that's going to mean not putting miles on Butler during the season, guarding Durant one night and Jason Tatum the next night for 40 minutes. Like, I think they're going to be really careful. So I like their playoff upside more than their regular season upside, Rosillo. Okay.
Starting point is 00:51:58 Before I answer, I'll kick it back to you guys. What about an Oladipo return at some point? I think it's a good thing so that fucks with the over under and i have no idea when he comes back and neither do you no way to guess no i heard he yeah you heard he looks great that's not the guy they need for the team they have though i just think any version of oladipo that's like healthy again, you just give them the ball.
Starting point is 00:52:27 I hope we get to see that guy again that was with the Pacers a couple years ago. He was incredible. Totally agree. I was going to do under lock for them, but now you're right. If Oladipo comes back two months in, now I'm scared.
Starting point is 00:52:41 I like this team better than last year. There's a number here where they had heartless bradley that's avery bradley precious kz akpala andre iguodala they played almost 1400 minutes okay that's not gonna happen again right this year but i think the one of the big things that you said bill what's the point what's the point of grinding it this regular season when you've got Lowry and you've got Butler at those age?
Starting point is 00:53:09 I don't know that they're going to have to win. Why do they need to win 50? Just make sure you're like a 5 or 6. It's a hesitant under because I like the team a lot. I do too. I like their playoff upside way more. Them for the conference plus 950,
Starting point is 00:53:23 I wouldn't bet it, but I think it's a nice number. I think they could absolutely for the conference plus 950 i think is a night i wouldn't bet it but i think it's a nice number i think they could absolutely win the conference yeah you know that's one injury to somebody on the nets and the bucks have you know the the mileage from everything last year and then nobody else steps up so 25 to 1 for the title seems a little less far-fetched i also like the playing number of plus. You can see a world where they're just a seven seed, where they don't care. That's a better payout than some of these other playing odds that you've thrown out there.
Starting point is 00:53:50 It's a good one. And I think when I was saying under, I was like, you know, anytime you say under, it feels like you don't like the team. I really like what they could be. But I... 48 and a half was the over. So they'd have to go 49 and 33.
Starting point is 00:54:05 That's a good record in the East. The other thing, though, that's made me second guess every version of the answer is that Jimmy Butler and Lowry could also be like, fuck that. Yeah. We're playing. They could. Yep. So it's a tough one.
Starting point is 00:54:20 I went under. That's why I like the over. Can we do a percentage game? Blame pie? Percentage chance. Lowry and Butler actually decide they don't really like each other that much and they're annoyed by each other
Starting point is 00:54:30 and there's a little alpha issue with them. 78, 78. 78? Oh, no. I was going to say like 8%. You go higher. They might actually, they might be so alpha
Starting point is 00:54:40 that it's just they know what they're signing up for. They're boys. I like, yeah, they're pals. It's going to work. I'll go 18%. Atlanta Hawks. 47 and a half is our over for them.
Starting point is 00:54:54 Plus 125 for the division. Very tasty. 21-1 for the conference. Playing game plus 155. I think Trey would have to get hurt for that to happen. Hunter's back. I guess Cam Reddish is back. You look at the depth chart and you think of like all the flexibility they have. And this goes back to, I wish I had made this point with the, in the Boston part, Boston had no flexibility last year. They had no ability to go small ball, big ball. They just kind of had the team they had.
Starting point is 00:55:20 And now this year they have all of this flexibility depending on who they're playing. I would argue Atlanta has, um, some of the most fun flexibility in the league they can go super small they can throw multiple wings at you um if the reddish thing was real at all from the playoffs that's such a monkey wrench for them people forget i mean some people not most people how good hunter was before he went down in the playoffs and the Gallinari X factor. And then Trey could, if Trey's even better, spoiler alert, I'm going over for this. But my question for you, House, who is Atlanta's rival going to be? Because your default would be the Knicks.
Starting point is 00:56:00 I feel like there could be a really nice Atlanta, Miami thing. Yeah. You beat me to it. You answered it. Hasn't fermented yet. Yep. But with the Lowry Butler, Tyler Hero, Trey going in there,
Starting point is 00:56:13 I mean, they don't really have the great crowd for Trey to fuck with in the same way, but that Atlanta, Miami thing, I started getting excited about it. That could be one of the league's best rivalries this year. So you're in on that house? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:56:24 I mean, anytime you can get a Southeast house? Yeah. I mean, anytime you can get a Southeast Conference banner flying and then flying, Washington has one of those. We have one of those. You don't think those courtside Miami fans are like,
Starting point is 00:56:35 your boat loan terms suck. They're leaving the game with six minutes to go yelling insults at Trey Young. One of the top three things I'm looking forward to in this entire NBA season is the first time that Trey does the Hesi, launches himself backwards and doesn't get the call. And Russillo grabs that clip and posts it on Twitter. Because Russillo is going to be so happy. He's going to be watching
Starting point is 00:57:01 those Hawks. Yeah, he's going to be watching those Hawks games like a little league parent when their son's up. Just like the camera. He's got a camera. To give you the headline, Hawks over. Maybe even a lock from me. The fact that their number is 47 and a half and the Heat's 48 and a half, I think they have that backwards.
Starting point is 00:57:16 Now, to the point that you were getting there, I'm just going to do a little bit of a victory lap here because there were some in the media that suggested that I was out of line with my hatred of the jump backwards into a trail defender especially around a screen and i was told that it was basketball and that it would just be something that you would adapt to and that there would be a counter for the counter and you're like no it fucking sucks to watch it does and everybody loses their minds and hardened hunting fouls and even steph who did it way more
Starting point is 00:57:44 last year i think than he'd ever done it before yeah because he's like i gotta figure out what it is why anybody would defend any of that shit and want to watch it as part of the product is beyond me but there appears to be some lanes in nba media coverage where it's like no it's cool you're you're a dick it seems like people that never played basketball like if, easy, D1. No, I'm just saying. I don't know what it is. It's fucking weird. It's fucking weird that anybody would watch the Trae Young thing.
Starting point is 00:58:11 If you played basketball at any level, if somebody did that, you'd just be like, what just happened? Steve Nash has a clip in the first week or two when it happens, and Nash is beside himself, who doesn't get upset, and he's still not mad. He's just looking at the ref being like, what are you doing? He's like, that's not basketball. That's not basketball.
Starting point is 00:58:29 And so we shouldn't want any of these things. We shouldn't want the counter should be making it all legal. Now, as that rant is over, I transition to the other one. Do you remember about 15 years ago when the league was at that? That's it. No more complaining. We're calling texts all the time. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:43 All right. You're worried the lurch comes back. It lasted a couple weeks. No more complaining. We're calling texts all the time. Yeah. All right. Oh, you're worried the lurch comes back. It lasted a couple weeks. Oh, no. And then the league was like, we can't just keep calling texts. They're just yelling at us even more now for giving them a technical about something that wasn't that big of a deal. I'm worried. I'm worried.
Starting point is 00:58:58 I got to see it play out for a year to think that this, no one should want any of this crap in the game. No one should want it. We'll see what happens. I'm such a different... Priscilla predicting the lurch could come back. No, but we got the Priscilla rule for this upcoming season. The Priscilla rule. Did they name it after you?
Starting point is 00:59:16 I thought you were the leader. He was. Nobody got madder about it than I did. Ironically, it's going to be called the Trae Young rule. Even though it should be called the James Harden rule. Zach and I talked about this on his pod the other day. No, I don's going to be called the Trae Young role, even though it should be called the James Harden role. Zach and I talked about this on his pod the other day. No, I don't care. I want the backing. I want the
Starting point is 00:59:30 goldfinger ejector seat button Trae Young play into the trail defender. That one, I want that one named after me. Because here's the other thing about Trae Young and why this is such a hard... I really feel like that's the Chris Paul, though. Trae Young just perfected it chris paul is the first paul did it though when he was bringing the ball up which is actually even worse in a way that anybody would
Starting point is 00:59:51 fall for it because like the chris paul one i'd always go how do you call it a second time in a game how do you call it a second time when he veers into traffic behind him trey was doing it around a screen where i mean if you're like they showed, I remember watching the one guy that was ripping me a little bit and it showed like a guy getting sideways with Trey Young. Yeah. Like around it. And you're like, what the hell? What is that?
Starting point is 01:00:14 Like, nobody wants to be doing that. So we'll see if it takes. I hope it takes. But I think the biggest Atlanta headline for me is that Trey Young is a motherfucker and he's not scared of anyone. And that's what I love the most about him in the playoffs. And it's so funny how we've over because they lost all the time. They didn't play defense. No, no. It's so funny that we're both so firmly in his corner. Like he really won us over. He won us over and it's not us flipping. And he won us over. You cocksuckers know that an atlanta radio station um let's pull clips of of this
Starting point is 01:00:47 podcast from last year where we expressed great skepticism at the pieces that they didn't they fire their coach weren't they like way under 500 i know that's right whatever i mean i but it was i had to go on and and try and justify you went on to of course i have oh i go on and try and justify it. You went on to talk about it? Oh, I go on anywhere. I'm a media whore. They're deep. I'm a radio whore. They're good. And Trey being the villain,
Starting point is 01:01:13 but then also being the least afraid in the Sixers series. These are all real things that happen. And, you know, look, I've been over a million times. Hawks 44-1 for best record in the NBA? I'm not that fired up. 44-1? No? Great payout. I'll put it up. A flyer? I mean, I've been over a million times. Hawks 44-1 for best record in the NBA. I'm not that fired up. 44-1? No? Great payout. Flyer? I mean, I got $50 for that. $10 FanDuel?
Starting point is 01:01:32 Who do you have for Atlanta's big rival? Miami? Boston? Us? You and me? Philly? No, we're on the team now. They're stuck with us. Every one of those. Every big market. Every great fan base. The Knicks will be the most fun. It'll be an event when he goes and plays there and it'll feel like a thing. The Knicks are not as good as
Starting point is 01:01:47 they are. They're just not as good as... Which is fantastic. What about Russia? But think about him in Philly. Think about him in Boston. It's going to be awesome. Boston's like the stealth fun rival because the Schroeder-Trey Young
Starting point is 01:02:03 could have kind of a moment together. That's going to be good. I like this, Hoxton. Wait, Grayson Allen's on the B fun rival because the Schroeder, Trae Young, I think could have kind of a moment together. That's going to be good. I like this Hawks thing. Wait, Grayson Allen's on the Bucs, right? Yes, he is. Oh. Hawks, Bucs. Pretty good.
Starting point is 01:02:13 Sneaky. Bogdanovich. Pretty good. I'm just going to list Hawks before we move on. You could have... So we're all going over and I think this is a lock for me.
Starting point is 01:02:22 Will they play a tribute video to Bogdanovich when he plays in Milwaukee? These are just... I will remember you. Guys on the Hawks. Trae Young. Bogdanovich.
Starting point is 01:02:31 Hunter. Collins. Capella. Where, Taylor? Kevin Herter. Gallinari. Cam Reddish. Lou Williams.
Starting point is 01:02:41 Solomon Hill. DeLon Wright. I know. It's fucking loaded. A Congo comes back in. It's really impressive. And then a Congo is what? January, February?
Starting point is 01:02:50 I feel like everyone that I read. You know who they have? Jalen Johnson. Your guy, Jorgie Dang. The guy you wanted instead of Jan Mahimny. Oh, my God. Just a fork in the road of House of Slate. All right, we're all going over for the Hawks.
Starting point is 01:03:04 Spoiler alert. I'm also going over for the Charlotte Hornets, who's over under 37.5 for Division 13-1. Playing game is plus 105. House, why do I irrationally love this team? Well, we loved them last year as well. We loved them all the way back to when? Was it the bubble? When did we love them?
Starting point is 01:03:23 We bet on them, and they delivered for us. Yeah, we did some stuff two years ago. There was a moment last year with Lomelo and Malik Monk and Hayward was healthy and they were just, I just like watching them on League Pass. Yeah. 37.5 seems super low to me. I mean, Hayward would have to stay healthy.
Starting point is 01:03:41 Super low is an exaggeration. Super low to me. I just think they're a 500 team. I feel like I'm getting three extra wins. How many times have they been terrible I mean, Hayward would have to stay healthy. Super low is an exaggeration. Super low to me. I just think they're a 500 team. I feel like I'm getting three extra wins. How many times have they been terrible and you turn on league pass and it's like, hey, they're in it again. Borrego's so good, man.
Starting point is 01:03:53 I don't know if they're more of a game. I feel like they do more, hey, let's do this specific to the matchup. Not necessarily, hey, who is it? If you're not any good, what's the approach of, no, we just do what we do's like if you're not any good yeah what's the approach of now we just do what we do it's like well you don't you're not that good at that right and they're never going to be as talented as those top teams unless you know all of a sudden
Starting point is 01:04:13 all these guys pop and and gordon stays healthy but i think night in and night out they they feel like they change what they want to do based on the opponent and that's why i always love how competitive they are and all that stuff. But between Hayward's injury and all that stuff, 37.5 still feels high, despite the fact with that small group, they still fight defensively all the time. So, played a lot of zone, I think, too.
Starting point is 01:04:35 House, I think LaMelo's better. Year 2 is always a nice year for somebody who's going to be a star. If you're going to be special, Year 2's usually... Year 2's a nice one. Hayward Healthy. Mason Plumlee, upgrade over what they had last year where it was like a Cody Zeller,
Starting point is 01:04:50 Bismack Biambo. I'm not saying Mason Plumlee is like an all-star, but he's competent. Kelly Oubre is competent as a wing guy. I just can't believe we're still talking. Ischmidt is competent
Starting point is 01:04:59 as a backup point guard. Bismack. Was Monk expendable? Well, he just kept getting hurt. And then I think that once they took Booknight, it was a wrap. And do we feel like Booknight can help them at all? Because that's the X factor.
Starting point is 01:05:14 Scoring right now? Yes. Yeah. So I think this, to me, I would be surprised that they didn't win 38 games. And this is a borderline lock for me. What do you have, Hass?
Starting point is 01:05:23 I'm fine with a slight over. This is a Hayward health bet. I mean, I, it all boils down. It's certainly been a bad bet for five. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:05:29 that's why I'm going under. But it's, if you told me he was playing all year, fine, but what do you expect from Wes Windu this year? We're still
Starting point is 01:05:39 because he's on this team. No, I expect just functionality. Okay. Kai Jones, any thoughts? You're one of Kai Jones. Awesome highlights. because he's on this team. No, I expect just functionality. Okay. Kai Jones, any thoughts? You're one of Kai Jones? Awesome highlights.
Starting point is 01:05:51 There are... This is a League Pass Twitter team where they will have, between Miles Bridges, Kai Jones, and LaMelo, they could dominate Twitter. I do feel like this could be... There'll be a couple LaMelo, Kai Jones alley-oops that you'll want to buy an NFT of. The Cowboys were America's team.
Starting point is 01:06:08 This will be like social media's team. The mid-Atlantic social America's team. That's true. Washington Wizards. Wow. 34 and a half. Great number. Playing game plus 140.
Starting point is 01:06:25 They added Spencer Dinwiddie they added Kyle Kuzma they added Aaron Holiday who I really like they added Caldwell Pope
Starting point is 01:06:32 who serviceable dude they added Harrell who we've seen in playoff games you have a full year of Daniel Gafford
Starting point is 01:06:39 Beal is still on this team you drafted Corey Kispert I just listed like nine, and I didn't mention the corpse of Bertans, who maybe is zombie Bertans. Who knows with them?
Starting point is 01:06:50 But I just listed a bunch of people who are real NBA players, and you have a guy who could score 30 points a game. 34 and a half feels low, House. Nearly every time I came on your podcast over the last two years when we talked about Washington, my gimmick was that
Starting point is 01:07:07 they were a team with one and three quarters NBA players. And, and, and now I really feel like they have five or six. This is the most talent that Bradley Beal will have played with since the playoff team in 2016, 2017. So chew on that for a minute, but's uh um you know because of of the what happened to john wall uh he basically stopped playing starting in 2018 he played 41 games and then that was really the end of his washington career um but that that the the thing that was frustrating as a washington fan with westbrook last year. He was hurt for half of the season, and he wasn't hurt, and they were interesting,
Starting point is 01:07:49 and they were interesting because he was out collecting triple-doubles because he got healthy halfway through the season, whatever his quad or whatever his injury was, but they had a talent deficit. Thomas Bryant is back. Thomas Bryant can play. I didn't even mention him. He's an athletic big that can run the floor. December, right Thomas Bryant is back. Thomas Bryant can play.
Starting point is 01:08:06 He's an athletic big that can run the floor. The house is bullish. I'm an over, and I'm going to bet them to make the playoffs. I'm definitely betting them to make the play-in game. I didn't even ask my big question. Also, I'll ask it to Rossello. Is Beal on this team in March?
Starting point is 01:08:22 Yeah, I think he is. I think he is, too. I do, too. Every indication we've got on the Beal thing has been that those of us on the outside don't understand that he's way more content. I've talked about this now for months. I keep repeating it over and over again. But there's also, beginning October 17th, a window where they can do a four-year extension
Starting point is 01:08:39 that pays him $181,000 or he could wait after the season and he does a five-year deal worth 242. What do we name it when they sign the deal knowing they're probably... Who invented that? Signing the extension? Is that the Mellow? Mellow, by all accounts, was really kicking the tires and going somewhere else.
Starting point is 01:09:01 And then what I had heard then, it was like, I'll just take the fifth year and I'll worry about it later. And that's exactly what happened. Let's call it the mellow. I think I've already, I think we've already decided it was the mellow and I just forgot
Starting point is 01:09:09 because I'm old. I don't know that you and I did, but I like that because I like naming stuff. I like mellow. We name it after him. The mellow. It's like Larry Bird,
Starting point is 01:09:15 Larry Bird rule, the mellow. The Allen Houston rule. I think Beal's on this team. This goes back to what I said at the top of the pod. I think the middle class is friskier this year, which made me want to down I said at the top of the pod I think the middle class is friskier this
Starting point is 01:09:26 year which made me want to downgrade some of the higher end uh overs and go under on this this isn't over to me we're so what do you have I just don't know I mean when I look at the depth chart it's like wow there's actually five guys right and Gafford helped them defensively Thomas Bryant isn't going to help him defensively but he's going to help him offensively so you know you can mix and match a little bit with it. You know, I realize how talented Dinwiddie is, but I, you know, Dinwiddie has a little of that D'Angelo Russell in him
Starting point is 01:09:51 where he's going to kind of do his own thing. And the crazy thing about Beal for all the money that he's going to get, he, in a weird way, became like crazy overrated. If Beal's the second best player on a team, I don't think that's enough. You know, it obviously depends on who the one is, but I've always thought like if Beal's the second best player on a team, I don't think that's enough. It obviously depends on who the one is, but
Starting point is 01:10:07 I've always thought if Beal actually eventually does get traded, which may be after an extension, but again, who knows, would you get him and then the city's like, oh my God, we got Beal. And then would you two months later go, eh, he's pretty good. I don't want to share 330 house
Starting point is 01:10:23 techs from the last few years. I mean, you speak to this. Be careful. No, he's pretty good. I don't want to share 330 house techs from the last few years. I mean, you speak to this. So be careful. No, he's a beta. He's a great second banana. The answer to your question about how psyched you would be will be who's your third best player. Because that really sets the ceiling or the floor for that team.
Starting point is 01:10:41 You need somebody who's better than Beal to be the one. Beal just is not an alpha. He's just not. Do you think he and Wiggins ran into each other somewhere and they were like, man, people just don't get it? I'm going to defend Bradley Beal. I went to that Game 7 Wizards-Celtics game, a.k.a. the Kelly Olenek game.
Starting point is 01:10:59 Beal was really impressive in that game. I thought he was completely 100% not scared. The guy who hurt you in that game. I thought he was completely 100% not scared. And the guy who hurt you in that game, other than Olenek getting hot, was just John Wall. They just weren't guarding him from... Well, because he ran out of gas.
Starting point is 01:11:12 He was leaving him seven feet open. He had no legs. I still can't believe the Wizards lost that series. Oof, that was a tough one. We're still over under. I like Beal. I just think he gets talked about in a neighborhood that he does not.
Starting point is 01:11:23 It's because we have nothing to do all day with basketball. We talk about Ben Simmons and Bradley Beal and Dame Lillard. It's the under, not because of a Beal trade, which is, I think, what other people would do. Unbelievable zags from Russillo today. You should have worn a t-shirt that just said zag. This is good. Let's get that. The ringers still doing t-shirts.
Starting point is 01:11:40 Zags, all lowercase. And then just a period, in a sense. I want a zag. I want a Russillo zag shirt. Over for me, all lowercase. And then I'm like, just a period, in a sense. I want a Zags shirt. Zags, I want a Zags shirt. Over for me, over for Hassan. Why rooting for Tiger Woods is complicated. I want the under. Can I go?
Starting point is 01:11:53 I need to change my Charlotte pick because I cannot have every team in the Southeast Conference over. Is he allowed to change picks after we made the picks? I mean, we already had the video. This isn't a draft. I think it's official. All right. You suck. It was a borderline for me anyway. I kind of want to change my Nets pick, so I'm going to allow it. We're going to take a break. We're going to take a break and then we're going to do the Orlando Magic in one second. How can you be sure your child is making the right decision when choosing a university?
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Starting point is 01:13:21 Over under 21 and a half. I have no other odds for you because you'd be an idiot to bet any of them. My question for you, Rossello, what the hell is going on with this roster? I'm just going to read you the depth chart. The guards, Markel Fultz, Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, Jalen Suggs, and Michael Carter Williams.
Starting point is 01:13:41 Kind of like it. The wings, Terrence Ross. Chumo Keke. Franz Wagner. Keke. Was that my first really bad pronunciation of the day? There was a Reggie Bullock in there. Bullock? I said Bullock.
Starting point is 01:13:58 Who? Reggie Bullock. We're getting there. Yeah. Chumo Keke. Keke? Keke. Chumo Keke. Garyke? Kiki. Chumo Kiki. Gary Harris is on this team? The undersized defensive stud shooting guard who can't shoot? Yeah, he's part of the Aaron Gordon trade. And then they have four centers for some reason.
Starting point is 01:14:14 They have Wendell Carter. They have Mo Bamba. Robin Lopez. There's more. Extension Mo Bamba? Extension Mo Bamba. Did not get the extension, but a lot of people are surprised. This, to me, cries of an under.
Starting point is 01:14:28 This team looks terrible. Even the Jalen Suggs has been on winners his whole life thing doesn't scare me. Jalen, get used to losing. Trevor Lawrence had been on winners his whole life. Guess what? You're only as good as your teammates. I'm going under.
Starting point is 01:14:42 But, Rosillo, what's going on here? What's the plan? Just assets? After they look, they hit the reset button finally. I think a lot of people felt like, whatever, they had incredibly bad luck with the injury stuff. Jonathan Isaac on top
Starting point is 01:14:58 of it all. I think it's just throwing a bunch of pieces at this, hoping that Jalen Suggs proves himself in a short amount of time. And Wendell Carter Jr. is still a very talented player. He just needs to have some sort of... I like him too. But, you know, you can only be passive for so long before now we just move on from you.
Starting point is 01:15:14 And Wendell Carter's like staring at the line right now. Where it's like, if you can't figure out a way to be productive down here with all the opportunities, then it's never going to happen. Mo Bamba's also staring at the line, but he's staring backwards because he's already past the line. Although somebody I talked to recently said,
Starting point is 01:15:29 do not rule out the Mo Bamba, I want an extension season. I personally have a hard time believing we're going to see an entirely new version of him, but we'll see. I'm really worried about KFC because he has the Mo Bamba thing. And then the Killian Hayes thing.
Starting point is 01:15:47 Well, he wasn't wrong about most talent. No, I'm just, I'm just worried. I know KFC, like he likes to go a hundred for a hundred with the draft guide. And you know,
Starting point is 01:15:57 I think he might miss one of those two. I think one of the, I think the overrunners one and a half house, anything you like about this Orlando team? Will you spend five seconds watching them on League Pass this year? Only if they're playing the Wizards. Yeah, that's how I felt. I want to watch Suggs a little bit.
Starting point is 01:16:14 Give them a test drive. League Pass test drive. Yeah, I agree. I want to watch Suggs on Tuesday. Cole Anthony is like, look, this is my team. I've got this. I did a little research to see if I could come up with a prop for them to have one of the worst five records over the last 50 years. That's what I was interested in.
Starting point is 01:16:35 Oh, interesting. So like less than 12 wins? Yeah, right. In the neighborhood of 14 to 8. I think that's where you have to go. Really? I don't think they're that bad. They're not.
Starting point is 01:16:45 I just think it's too hard to suck that much. I think that's, that's where you have to go. Really? I don't think they're, they're not, they're not. I just think it's too hard to suck that much. I couldn't get there. That's how I spent my time looking at Orlando though. So I'm going to put under down for house and we're still low under 21 and 61 wins the bet. All right. I have to win 22. It's 21 and a half.
Starting point is 01:17:02 Yeah. 21 and a half. But I'm saying 21 and 61 is a winner. Oh, wins the under for us. Yeah. Yeah. Right. 21 and a half. 21 and a half. But I'm saying 21 and 61 is a winner. Wins the under for us. Yeah. 21 and 61. Lock it down. What scenario are they winning 22 games? That's not happening. But this is where it's hard because you never know. All you need is five nights where you catch the other team on the right night
Starting point is 01:17:18 and Markell's getting it going. Wendell looks all right. Terrence Ross is like, I'm looking for money here. I think Terrence Ross is traded in December. Right. Well, okay. He's one of the first guys traded.
Starting point is 01:17:31 But I'm going to run some numbers for you here. Yeah. Because I went back and looked at it because I go, how often do teams actually lose 60-plus games? How many teams actually can't get to 20 wins? Because that's kind of what you're saying here. You're like, all right. It's rarer than you think.
Starting point is 01:17:48 So the last full season is 2019. You had three teams under 20 wins. 2018, zero. 2017, zero. 2016, Philadelphia won 10 games. The Lakers won 17. 2015, it was three teams. 2014, it was two teams.
Starting point is 01:18:03 2013, it was zero. So, you know, we've had... Well, can I flip this around? Aren't they the most... Them and OKC would be the most likely picks to win 20 or under. Yeah. I mean, we'll get to Houston too at some point.
Starting point is 01:18:18 Part two. But... And I can't wait to talk Thunder actually, but... Me neither. They're not good. They're not good. They're not good. It's just like the first time you think of Orlando, you're like, oh, Under, whatever.
Starting point is 01:18:31 Oh, 22 wins, no way, no way. I wish we had Zag music that we could play for Basilo as he starts thinking about the Zag. I'm just trying to, you know, all perspectives here. Kyle's producing. Kyle has Zag music. Let's come up with it. What would Zag music sound like?
Starting point is 01:18:44 I don't know. Is it a sound or is it actual music? The Zag, Zag, Z Kyle has Zag Music. Let's come up with it. What would Zag Music sound like? I don't know. Is it a sound or is it actual music? It's like breaking glass, maybe. I don't know. Whatever. Give me the over. Fuck it. You know what? There's a good trend line for you. When you get down to these numbers, nine out of the last twelve
Starting point is 01:19:00 at this super sub culture. I spit on your mic. So excited for this. I love this number. They go over. Say that again. I messed it up.
Starting point is 01:19:13 Of the last 12 basement unders, the team has exceeded that basement number. Nine times. Nine out of those 12. Nine out of 12? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:19:27 You're still not coherent. I'm still not sure what you said, but it sounded good. I don't know what's going on. I think I'll stay at some coffee soon. No, I... Want some coffee? I would like coffee. Starbucks?
Starting point is 01:19:36 I always like coffee. We're going to the Milwaukee Bucks. Over-under is 55 and a half. Minus 750 to win the division. It's about as... That's like some 2017 warrior shit. Plus 360 for the conference, 821 for the title. I don't want to step on.
Starting point is 01:19:52 I did, I did 10 minutes on this on Zach's pod last week. I should have saved it for this, but I love Zach about why won't, why won't the Bucks be better this year? Why can't they actually go up a notch? Because Giannis went up a notch those last two rounds. And I really believe as a guy who loves NBA history, sometimes this happens with guys who are the best 25 guys of all time.
Starting point is 01:20:17 They have that moment and they're never the same after that for the better. They're just up a level. I thought he figured shit out. You and I talked about it on this podcast multiple times. We saw things from him in that last two rounds that was just advanced from where he was. There was a fearlessness of not being afraid of being fouled. And I'm getting to the rim. The rim is my friend. I'm getting there. They can't stop me. I'm getting to the rim. I'm getting the rim. No matter how I can get there, I'll get there from the right side, clear out for me. I will get there
Starting point is 01:20:48 in alley-oops. I will get follow-up dunks. I'm going to be around the rim as much as I can. And I think this continues. I think they're going to be really good. I think Middleton's going to be better. Holiday, I don't really feel like they lost anybody. 55 and a half is the over, and I'm actually going to go over on this one it's going to be one of my only high overs because I think they're going to be really good I think it's a 60 win team I love what you said about Giannis
Starting point is 01:21:12 but I also loved reading some of the preview stuff I sent a note to Zach just how tenuous this whole Milwaukee offense thing was in the playoffs because you're like oh here it is again like look at this it's not going to work it's not going to work and It's not going to work. And then it worked.
Starting point is 01:21:27 And Giannis' mentality has a lot to do with that. Drew looking comfortable almost too late, you know, because he and Middleton were starting to have some of those creep-in games. Like, hey, this is why we don't talk about you like we talk about those other guys. You know, you're showing it to us again. And then some of the Brook Lopez defensive stuff where you just,
Starting point is 01:21:46 that's what I love about the playoffs is you'll have this game and you're like, oh, maybe they figured something out and then it can just look totally different two or three games later. And Lopez had moments against Atlanta where you're like, I don't know.
Starting point is 01:21:55 And it all comes together. Portisry signs on a good number. He has an opt-out after the year. That was the one none of us expected. He had early bird and I think this allows him to do bird. So he has the opt-out after this, but you're still right. For off that title run, had early bird, and I think this allows him to do bird. So he has the opt-out after this. But you're still right.
Starting point is 01:22:06 For off that title run, less than $5 million, I think, is what he's getting in the first year. Something like that. That was great. What a win for them. Here's the other part of it. And we haven't spent a lot of time talking about Ben Simmons, so it's good.
Starting point is 01:22:18 And I'm not going to bog us down here. But when people look at Ben Simmons and say, hey, just do what Giannis does, that's like telling Frank Bruno to watch Mike Tysonyson film and going now just be more like him or more current reference uh anthony joshua yeah right exactly just do and it's it's insulting to the yannis approach it's insulting to his mentality i understand the the comp of body type and um high level skills versus some of the flaws they have. But you're like, you don't get to just be him.
Starting point is 01:22:50 And Giannis, in the biggest moment, was like, fuck this. It's on. And that's why I love the guys so much. I'm with you. I actually think, and DiVincenzo being a part of it, whenever that, I don't know what the latest is on him. And also Holiday being there for a full year. The fact that Budenholzer is not going to have
Starting point is 01:23:04 the Am I Fired thing hanging over him if they fail in-house. I think the Giannis thing is really interesting how people just seem to feel like the next year to win last year was a fluke and Davis got hurt and there's 90 excuses for it. And they kind of missed the Giannis piece of it. And the fact that I think he's now historically great and I think it continues.
Starting point is 01:23:27 He's only 26. Everybody's anxious to hand the league over to Luca, including myself. I've had multiple things about is this the next guy and all that stuff.
Starting point is 01:23:36 And next four years, would you rather have Giannis or Luca if you're trying to win titles? I'd rather have Giannis. Oh, I'd much rather have Giannis. But I think I would have said Luka. You would have said Luka
Starting point is 01:23:47 for the last two plus years. In round two in the playoffs, even before the end of that net series, I would have been like, oh, Luka, Luka. But Giannis, from what I saw from him last year, I think he's the guy I'd want.
Starting point is 01:23:56 I think he's the best player in the league. And I'd still rather have Durant. Interesting. Over Giannis. Which is fine. Yep. Because I was guilty of it too. You know, going back two years, Giannis which is fine yep because I was guilty of it too you know going back two years Giannis going into the playoff season you know coming out of the bubble you're like hey this
Starting point is 01:24:12 guy's probably the best in the world and then Kawhi's had moments hell Kawhi had moments in the first round against the Clippers you go why would I ever think anybody's actually better than this guy like look what Kawhi's doing again and he did it um and then at the end of the bubble you're like oh why the hell did I doubt LeBron? We did the exact same thing when the Nets are up in that series. And you're like, Durant's doing this kind of by himself right now. This is why we like Durant more than Giannis.
Starting point is 01:24:34 Isn't it a 1A, 1B thing though? I'm going to take shooting every fucking time. I think I'm taking the overpowering thing. Really? Yeah, I thought what he did to Aiton in the finals when he wasn't even 100% and he was just like,
Starting point is 01:24:50 I'm just getting in the rim. You can't stop me. Aiton was fucking good. Aiton was awesome in the playoffs. I was like, who's stopping this fucking dude? Embiid? And even Embiid, I feel like Embiid is like side to side.
Starting point is 01:25:02 He's a little lumbery. I feel like Giannis can get, I think he would solve that too, House. It's an incredible and an incredibly fun conversation to keep having. It's great. I love Rosillo with this.
Starting point is 01:25:14 I guess I'd take KD because he has better taste in wine. That would be the only reason why. KD knows his wine. That would be why I would choose KD. You know what's funny? On the Zach thing, when we were talking about this,
Starting point is 01:25:24 Giannis, KD, and I think it's 1A, 1B, and I don't think there's a wrong choice, but I think people feel like LeBron is still on that level. And I said that. I was like, LeBron's his 19th year. Like, he's... Yeah, but we've got to see him not look good. I mean, LeBron had a weird number creep up where it was like
Starting point is 01:25:39 this is the first time in his career a third of his shots were from three. Yeah. Like, over a third or whatever it was. I just don't think he can be as overpowering night to night as those guys are at this point. I still feel like he's one of the eight best players. I don't think that's an insult. What, LeBron being the eighth? I don't think he can be the two-way guy Giannis is, and I don't think he's the offensive player. He's not the two-way guy.
Starting point is 01:25:59 The defensive numbers are pretty good, but I mean, he coasts, which is always smart. But I think it's fine that he's not in the territory. He's fucking 36 years old. It is fine. I agree. The LeBron fans are nuts. I don't know. I still think you have to put LeBron in whatever that first group is. So you'd say 1C? Because I have it 1A, 1B, and if you want to put
Starting point is 01:26:16 LeBron, 3, great, but I wouldn't put him like 1C with those guys. I don't know, man. He was still awesome last year. I know eventually it's not going to look good, but I'm not going to try to get in front of that one. I'm not going to try to predict. You're going to wait to see it. I'm going to wait. Yeah. I'll, I'll gladly. Like a Tom Brady Bucks thing. I'd rather be wrong giving him the benefit of the doubt. So whatever the playoff closing group would be like, Hey, I want that guy having the ball. LeBron's still right up there with anybody else.
Starting point is 01:26:40 I don't think there's any shame in saying you're maybe three to five percent not as good as the best scoring forward of all time and the best, most dominant post guys in Shaq. You don't even have to think about it.
Starting point is 01:26:53 Like, the last four minutes of a playoff game, you would go, give me Giannis Durant-LeBron. You don't even have to think about it. No, I do think about it. I think the Giannis Durant part.
Starting point is 01:27:02 I'd have to see the LeBron thing. I thought we saw it. We just saw it. Davis got hurt in that series last year and that team was done. LeBron was okay and then his ankle kind of hurt. Well, Giannis had a fucking fucked up knee. I don't know who was more hurt than the other guys.
Starting point is 01:27:18 I know, but I'm just saying we made excuses for LeBron, but then Giannis was able to play hurt. He's also a lot younger when you do those weird hyperextension things. That goes to my point. LeBron, but then Giannis was able to play her. He's also a lot younger when you do those weird hyperextension things. That goes to my point. LeBron's year 19. Okay, but now we're talking health and projecting health. I'm talking about when healthy. Durability for 100 games,
Starting point is 01:27:34 consistency, the ability to do it on both ends, to weather the storm for 20 playoff games. I can't win on the both ends. To carry a team that if I'm missing my best supporting guy, I can do this. Like what Durant did in game five, game seven of the,
Starting point is 01:27:48 I don't think LeBron can do that anymore. If he does like, that'd be amazing. Well, if he does, it would be because they only played 60 games in the regular season, which might be the right strategy for them. Did you see his minutes now?
Starting point is 01:27:59 He's over 60,000. He's over 60 combined, which it's him and Kareem now. And I think, I can't remember if Carl Malone's over 60 combined, which it's him and Kareem now. So impressive. I can't remember if Karl Malone's over that, but he's going to be right where Kareem was at the end of this season if he plays a full year. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:28:13 I feel the same way about Brady. Brady is incredible. I wouldn't say he's one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now. I'd say he's on the level below, but if he wasn't on a team that had a ton of weapons and whatever, you wouldn't say he was the best quarterback in the league. Yeah, but what I would say is I don't think I'm putting him in the second group.
Starting point is 01:28:34 Right, so you'd say 1C for LeBron. Yeah, I just, whenever we're talking about the top five and top ten, for me it's who are the six guys maybe in the league that still, at least let's say this way for a season change who you are as a franchise and i'm not talking like makes you better but actually gives you a shot and for 20 years here lebron's like pretty much hey we get a chance of getting the nba finals well can i have him third yeah you can have him third i don't like you saying eighth no i said top eight i didn't say top eight i know but i didn't you know sometimes like there have been a couple flirtations with him going back two years ago where people were
Starting point is 01:29:09 trying to put him like fifth or sixth and you know every time every time you do that with lebron you almost every time you end up being wrong and again i get science i get that he's eventually going to be there but like 60 000 minutes for him is not 60 000 minutes for kareem yeah it's not it's 40 years of separation unbelievable yoga for him yeah all right so i minutes for Kareem. Yeah, it's not. It's 40 years of separation. Unbelievable yoga for him. Yeah. All right, so I have over for the Bucs. What do you have, Huss? There's dead silence because...
Starting point is 01:29:34 What do you have, Ursula? Over. Ursula's over. I'll do over also then. No. Huss just won't sag at all. Well, the problem is, if there's ever a season for Milwaukee
Starting point is 01:29:44 to take their foot off the pedal during the regular season, it would be this season. Because that's not how they play. That's not how they play in the regular season. I think if I'm them, I can get the one seed. With this Kyrie thing opens the door for me to really get this one seed and I can have a game seven against Brooklyn in Milwaukee. And Giannis wants to play.
Starting point is 01:30:04 That's the other thing too. Like when you start handicapping the personalities of the stars, I don't think Giannis wants to be like, Hey, cool. I'm going to take 15 games off so I can show everybody. I've said this, not getting wet,
Starting point is 01:30:16 but all of us are working on wood. There's a LeBron side to him where he can have these things that just feel like they would be catastrophic injuries for other players. That thing that happened to him in the playoffs. How did that fucking not end his playoffs? Was there six guys in the history of the week who were just like, I'm good? Two days later? I'll say
Starting point is 01:30:36 there are times where people hyper extend and you scare the shit out of yourself and you just land right in that it's like, hey, actually your leg isn't going to be amputated. Yeah, it just looks worse than it is. I just think he's a pretty safe health risk. He is.
Starting point is 01:30:52 Much like how LeBron in Miami. Knock on wood again. LeBron in those Miami years, there was like, what would have to happen for this guy to have like a real injury? I mean, he got a groin injury, what, in 17, 18, and we're like, that's weird. Yeah, what's going on with him? Indiana Pacers, 42 and a half.
Starting point is 01:31:08 Division 10 to 1. So that's an incredible zag bet if you're like, I'm shorting Giannis. Playing game, plus 125 in Tyson. My question for House. Another Turner-Cebona season? We're doing this again? Why are we doing this again? Because Rick Carlisle will make a big difference because he'll be able to
Starting point is 01:31:31 figure it out. Uh, he'll convince Miles Turner to do something different. I'd like Turner last year. I would have tried to trade for him. You could have had him. We could add him the year before, but I didn't like him as much that year.
Starting point is 01:31:43 No, his rim protection numbers are incredible. He can stretch the floors. Just a lot of the other stuff. I think the Turner actually, as you mentioned him the year before, but I didn't like him as much that year. No, his rim protection numbers are incredible. He can stretch the floors, just a lot of the other stuff. I think the Turner, actually, as you mentioned, the Celtics, since I get on the Miles Turner market, it's like the Marcus Smart market, where you go, okay, let's kick the tires. They're going to be like, oh, wait, those are the offers? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:31:59 All right, then we're keeping them. And that's why they're doing it again. Feels like I look at this team, and especially with the Carlisle piece, they over under at 42 and a half. And it, it makes me nervous because I don't know if this is still the team in December, January,
Starting point is 01:32:17 did they decide what they're doing with the Levert Brogdon extensions? Cause if they extended, it makes it harder to trade those guys. Right. Well, Levert's got a broken bone in his back. Probably not going to extend him. Well, they probably, because you feel like you gave up an asset
Starting point is 01:32:32 and you're like, all right, well, what do we have to show for giving up Oladipo? TJ Warren missed all of last season, basically. Brogdon missed 16 games. Remember, Brogdon was up there historically with teams that I talked to. Michael Porter Jr. is the worst medicals of anyone in the last 10 plus years in the pre-draft process. Sabonis missed 10 games. Turner missed 25 games.
Starting point is 01:32:52 I don't know that you asked me, but you can tell where I'm going. Rick Carlisle, 43 wins. Give me that over. Wow. I'm right there along with it. What? That's going to be a lock for me. I love this pacers
Starting point is 01:33:05 team i like them last year i lost money on them last year i think and do no nate but you're that alone might be worth eight apparently all he did is piss everybody off immediately so carlisle comes in remember those dallas teams carlisle used to have where you go how the hell is that team a seven seed? Yeah. So you think that's happening here? Yeah, I do. Big time.
Starting point is 01:33:33 Even though LaVert has a problem. My cock's working overtime. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Good thing. Show your marriage. Show your dick works. Oh, it's working.
Starting point is 01:33:45 Overtime. And yet wouldn't come on that apart. Shows you're married. Shows your dick works. Oh, it's working. Over time. And yet, wouldn't come on that a part had rewatchables. Who, Alec? You. Oh. Yeah. Whatever. It's a story for another time.
Starting point is 01:33:53 You just weren't interested. People are asking, where's your show? Are you married? Yeah, yeah. It's working. I'm going under. I'm zagging.
Starting point is 01:34:01 I think this is a really weird team. I don't really understand the mix of guys and I don't really understand the mix of guys. And I don't like that. As I'm looking at the depth chart, there's the O button or the O letter next to Levert Warren. And Gogo Bidzace.
Starting point is 01:34:17 Oh, no. Definitely not. No chance. No, I didn't. The Warren thing, as you know, I don't like feet. The Levert thing, it just seems like he's got a black cloud over him.
Starting point is 01:34:28 Then they got rid of your Aaron Holiday guy, which is hilarious because in the Wizards section, you were like, I like him. And I was like, because I like him too.
Starting point is 01:34:35 I've always liked him. I thought Zach made a great point in his league pass thing. The Sabonis. Do you want to get Zach for this next year? No, I just thought I was jealous of it.
Starting point is 01:34:43 He did the whole show with Zach. I was just jealous of the point. He pointed about the Sabonis-McDermott combo. How well those guys played together. And it was one of those things I would watch, but it never registered that I just liked the two-way game with those two. And now that's gone. He's in San Antonio.
Starting point is 01:35:01 And don't forget, Chris Duarte may win fucking MVP. He's working overtime. I'm going under. I'm zagging. All right. Chicago Bulls over under 43 and a half. A lot of people buying into this team. Division 10 to one playing game plus 105, which might be the lock of the year.
Starting point is 01:35:18 Is this 2021's best example of how a fantasy basketball team doesn't work the same way as an actual basketball team. To me, this looks like a fantasy basketball team. It's not a roster that makes sense to me as an actual roster that's supposed to win games. I don't disagree one bit. I do admire them going out,
Starting point is 01:35:41 being ambitious, trying to become relevant again. And the demonstration of good faith to Zach Levine, does he really deserve a demonstration of good faith? I don't know, but they did it. The thing is, who plays defense on this basketball team? Who plays defense on this team? Name one person who plays defense on this basketball team.
Starting point is 01:36:04 I didn't really like the DeRozan trade that much when they did it. And as the months have passed, I actually kind of hate it. Oh. Like, I really do. I don't mind Thad Young. I thought he was really kind of good for them last year.
Starting point is 01:36:17 I don't know how Levine and DeRozan worked together. I don't like the money they paid for DeRozan. I think that could really come back to haunt them. And it just felt like a splashy move versus a smart move. And now you look at them, like, what's the crunch time? Well, you figure Patrick Williams, it's better for them, for him to be out there at crunch time. It doesn't look like he's going to be because it's going to be Lonzo, Zach Levine, DeRozan, Vucevic. You know those four guys are out there. And then it's like, alright, maybe it's Patrick Williams. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:36:50 Who else is in there? But I just think that that young thing, just having him, I just rather would have had him than DeRozan. I'm babbling. I hate the DeRozan transaction. Okay, good. I'm glad I'm not on an island. The NBA slowly crept into the NFL world.
Starting point is 01:37:05 It's not nearly as bad as the NFL is, but I used to just rant and rave about it on the radio show. Like, every NFL contract is a lie in the first 24 hours, and then you slowly learn about them. Donovan is going to have extension. He's one of the greatest ever. Like, hey, we called you fat. Here's $70 million.
Starting point is 01:37:18 Actually, it's a million bucks. Okay. DeRozan, his numbers came in. I'm like, three years, $82 million. Okay. I'm like, let me wait until it's fake. Like, what's the third year? Because the Chris Paul one was a great example.
Starting point is 01:37:28 The fourth year is an option. The third year has like partial guarantees in it. Yeah. So like the Chris Paul one came in, you're like, four years, what the fuck? DeRozan's three years, 82 million. Like, I've gone through it. I don't think there's anything other than-
Starting point is 01:37:41 I've asked who they were competing against and like, apparently it was the Lakers. And that's, I guess, because then you're like, wait, and you gave up a top 10 first in 2025? And here's the point with DeRozan. Even if you're the biggest DeRozan fan, and I've always kind of respected his offense because a guy can make buckets.
Starting point is 01:37:58 He can. His passing got a little bit better with San Antonio. I've always been rooting for him because he became underrated because the advanced stats people hated him so much. The advanced stats him so much yeah right it was basically like not having somebody on the floor or something but i think at some point you have to go hey why do i want to give him 82 million and if you heard it was the lakers fine and it just takes one team to be competing against and all that deal but once the westbrook deal went through then then what was what was the rest of
Starting point is 01:38:23 the option there like were they just going to package up what was left to package? Would you agree it felt a little panicky to try to prove to Zach Levine we're serious about spending money this year? Yeah, and also it does feel a little bit like, hey, here's the window to go ahead and spend the money, so who's like a C-plus guy that we can spend it on? But I think they also want to get Levine off the ball, but that's what I thought they were doing with Lonzo, who apparently this front office has wanted Lonzo
Starting point is 01:38:50 for like two years. Lonzo to Chicago has been rumored now forever, and then it finally happened. I like that one. I like Lonzo. I did not like DeRozan. I like Lonzo because I think Lonzo's a really easy guy to play with.
Starting point is 01:39:00 Yeah. Great. Yeah. Totally agree. The Vucevic piece, they get a whole year with him. I just don't. Great. Yeah. Totally agree. Um, the Vucevic piece, they get a whole year with him. I just don't see it. I'm going under.
Starting point is 01:39:10 I respect what they're doing under. Like I respect what they're trying to do, except for the DeRozan money, but whatever. This was a borderline lock for me, but now that I'm getting an extra win to play with, uh, it might be,
Starting point is 01:39:23 uh, it might be a lock. What do you have? 43 and 39 is probably a 7 seed in the East. And it's still a loser. 6-7 seed and still a loser. So I think that's the right number. I like the under because I think that they're going to be either play in or the 6 seed.
Starting point is 01:39:41 And they're going to be able to score. I mean, Boston's looking at like a 6 seed a five or six seed maybe i mean at that 45 number 45 and a half brooklyn milwaukee philly atlanta miami boston and so you're right counter start my cock's working overtime. Counter would be Miami throws away the regular season and Philly is a mess. Why would Miami throw away the regular season?
Starting point is 01:40:11 No, just like they're just trying to arrest everybody. Just basically... I mean, some of these things are obviously going to happen. Right. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:40:17 I feel like Boston versus Atlanta for the three seed is in play. Do you? But I'm a homer. No. I just like the youth. I think you need depth and I think both teams
Starting point is 01:40:29 can steal like five, six games. I got to see it from that group. I got to see an edge that I didn't see all last year. I like Philly ahead of both of them. Cleveland. 27 and a half is our over-under for this team.
Starting point is 01:40:43 They have a lot of guys I like. This is, I can already tell, it's going to be my league, my shitty league pass team. I'll definitely watch some of them. I love Mobley. Everything we've seen from Mobley, summer league, training camp,
Starting point is 01:40:56 exhibition games, eye test. It's just like, wow, this guy moves defensively at a fucking crazy level for somebody who's 19, 20 years old. Like he's just clearly an awesome player. I don't know what they do with Kevin Love. I don't know what they do with my guy Markenden.
Starting point is 01:41:13 I don't feel like this is necessarily the home for him. How about that? You want to talk about forgotten transactions? Oh my God. I mean, at least Schroeder ended up on a place where people will see him. I don't know how they figured out the Garland-Sexton thing. I don't know where Rubio fits in all this.
Starting point is 01:41:27 But I'll start here with this question for you, Russo. How would we remember Kevin Love if Draymond doesn't punch LeBron in the balls in 2016 and the Cavs never win a title? What would be the Kevin Love legacy for you? You seem to already want to answer this one. I don't think it's that different. I really don't think it's that different.
Starting point is 01:41:48 I don't think anybody's sitting there getting into Kevin Love arguments anymore. I wrote like an entire 5,000 word Grantland column about Kevin Love's trade value once, like seven years ago. What was his highest ranking in your trade value?
Starting point is 01:42:02 He was trading for the first... That's a great question. He was like in the top seven or eight at one value? He was trading for the first... That's a great question. He was in the top seven or eight at one point. He was trading for the first pick in the draft in the Wiggins. They kept asking for stuff. The Kevin Love market, it's two years, $60 million left at this point.
Starting point is 01:42:16 I still think he could bring something to a decent team. I don't know how much of the $30 million Cleveland wants to bring back. Can I remind you, the Warriors were in a heated two camps about- The Klay Thompson stuff? Did we trade Klay Thompson and Draymond for Kevin Love? This is a thing.
Starting point is 01:42:30 They have a faction of their team that was like, let's do this. Call it in. We're going. Oh, no. It was David Lee and Klay Thompson. Yeah. I don't think Draymond was in it.
Starting point is 01:42:40 Yeah, yeah, yeah. It was David Lee. You're right. How will you remember Kevin Love, House? Other than being disappointed he was never a bullet. He would have been a perfect wizard. He was just a serviceable all-star. Serviceable.
Starting point is 01:42:54 He had a good career. Unique rebounder. I love the outlet pass guy. I'll remember as the outlet pass guy. I think he was first team All-NBA. He was? I think he was. Look it up. There's one. I'm going to look that up. Here's how I'm going to
Starting point is 01:43:08 remember him, though. Keep talking about Kevin Love. I'm going to remember him as the Spite signing. Dan Gilbert gave him $120 million because he was mad LeBron left. And good to Kevin Love. Nobody made more money off of that than Kevin Love.
Starting point is 01:43:23 When the extension happened, I was like, well, that was quick. And unnecessary. Kevin Love, second team on NBA in 2012. Durant and LeBron were the first team forwards for the record. Wow, that's a poor selection. 2014, also second team on NBA. Durant and LeBron were the two forwards that year as well so he's two second team ombas with durant lebron basically in their early peak for durant the money weren't
Starting point is 01:43:53 an issue marcus smart for kevin love right now somebody's gonna talk themselves into him okay but is it a terrible conversation to have with yourself? I don't... I would like to see him... It won't be Marcus Smart, but... I'd like to see him... If you're Philly and you start thinking about the sex and love combo and really starting to think about it seriously at some point. I'd love to see him away with all the stuff behind him and in the shot with a team where he's not asked to do everything, but it's just hard when you're trading with somebody like that
Starting point is 01:44:23 to be a role at $30 million even next year. The problem is when is the last time he tried hard to play professional basketball? Any level. The Olympics. When's the last time he tried hard? The Olympics was a rough one for him. I don't know what happened there.
Starting point is 01:44:40 He asked to be on the team and he showed up out of shape. He might have been hurt, but it was rough. Is he asked to be on the team, and he showed up out of shape. But he might have been hurt, but it was rough. He didn't look like— Is he motivated to play competitive basketball? I mean, I need a Players' Tribune piece out of him. Am I motivated to play professional basketball? I hope to see that in the first two months out of Kevin Love.
Starting point is 01:44:59 He's a prolific Players' Tribune writer. He was such a good rebounder. I hated that— The rebounding numbers were— I think the Cavs thing was just such a bad thing for him. I know he won the title, but all it did was make him like the stretch four. And it was like,
Starting point is 01:45:11 it's so the opposite of what I wanted from that dude. I thought around the basket, he was so cagey and just so tough to play game after game. I just really liked this game. The stretch for white Mario Chalmers. Cause I just remember him getting yelled at all the time. Yeah, and it's like if they lost in 16, he gets traded.
Starting point is 01:45:30 No question. But, it's too bad how it worked out. I really like this team. Do you like them? I do. I like this Cavs team. I'm going to go slight over. I think they're actually going to be pretty good defensively. I'm disappointed because we did a pod six weeks ago ago and the numbers
Starting point is 01:45:46 were out and we were looking at them. They were pretty fresh and they were at 25 and a half. Yeah. Absolutely love the calves at 25 and a half. I still like them. And now they're at 27 and a half. 28 and 54. Feels good. And I'm feeling a tiny bit. I was, I arrived this week expecting to be, they were going to be one of my locks. I was planning for it, and I started doing some of the work. I don't know where Collin Sexton is going to be. They're not going to just play sex land all season. This could be a Ben Simmons spot.
Starting point is 01:46:16 Rossell is definitely zagging. He's going under. I can feel it. Yeah, the number's a good one, though, because at 22-50 last last year 306 winning percentage so you know they're they're basically projecting a little bump up from that um and even if kevin love is gone i mean sexton for the concerns the concerns are about the extension like all right are we just going to pay the guy who's a really good scorer a max extension they're not going to do it yeah we don't want to do that but he still put up really good numbers. I think Garland had some
Starting point is 01:46:45 moments last year. I like Jared Allen a lot. I'm with you on Mobley. But they were pretty bad defensively last year. I think they were 25th. And is a rookie center going to come in
Starting point is 01:46:58 and fix all that stuff? And again, that's not a full season in Jared Allen numbers too, but I'm going to go under. I think that number's a little high. I like the Okoro, Mobley, Jared Allen being able to basically control a bunch of different things defensively.
Starting point is 01:47:13 Who's scoring? What do you mean? Is he going to have Sexton, Garland bomb away while those three guys watch? Yeah, I think so. Or Markkinen. I think Mobley can actually, I think he'll be able to score a little bit.
Starting point is 01:47:23 Markkinen shot it well last year. You know where I stand on marketing. I own one of the only houses left on a marketing island. Last team. Did I already say I'm going over? Yeah, we're both going over. You understand that JB Bricker staff coach teams have never gone over.
Starting point is 01:47:40 That's fine. How many samples do we have there? Not very many. Let's quickly do the Pistons and then we'll call part one a wrap Detroit Pistons I have an hour on the Pistons over under 23 and a half
Starting point is 01:47:50 um some players I like I wish they had taken uh Halliburton over Killian Hayes but I like all the Cade Cunningham stuff I've read
Starting point is 01:47:59 really does seem like a larger than life team leader wants to be there all that stuff we'll see what happens with Bay. We'll see if Grant's still on the team. They got my guy Kelly O,
Starting point is 01:48:10 who I was kind of secretly hoping the Celtics would get, bring him back. They feel a couple guys short. You think? Yeah. That's one of my expert opinions. You could use a few guys. I am going under 23.5.
Starting point is 01:48:25 What do you got yourself? Under. They went 22 and 52 last year. That's a 278 winning clip. 25 wins for them is 305. They're atrocious offensively. Maybe Cade. I would think if you're
Starting point is 01:48:38 the number one pick and you're going to be something special, there's a bump there a little bit. But I'm kind of going with the, you know, the theory that I had was those'm kind of going with the, you know, the, the theory that I had was those teams at the bottom in the East.
Starting point is 01:48:49 I just think they're really bad. Detroit and Orlando. Yeah. Like I'm with it, you know, so I was just going to, and even Cleveland, I thought 27 for them was,
Starting point is 01:48:57 was kind of high. So go ahead. House. I have the fan dual sports book open right this second. And the Detroit Pistons are showing at 25 and a half. It went up two wins? I don't know what happened. I did all the research this weekend.
Starting point is 01:49:11 I'm telling you, I opened it up while we're doing this. 25 and a half. Did it change during this podcast today? Jesus. I'm telling you, I'm showing you this FanDuel Sportsbook. They're the second youngest roster in the NBA. They're not incented to do anything other than let these young guys find their games. It's super funny.
Starting point is 01:49:30 Jeremy Grant, Olenek, and Corey Joseph. Like, meh, meh. No, that's an under for me. Under 25 and a half and under 24 and a half. They moved Mboya out, too. In case that factors in. All right. So, there's three 2019 first rounders
Starting point is 01:49:46 that are out of the league now. Because the Spurs waived their guy from that draft too. It's weird. You usually don't see like three misses like that. We're doing the locks and then we're wrapping up part one.
Starting point is 01:50:00 So it's time. You can have up to four locks. You don't have to use four. You can do three Brooklyn Nets 56 and a half I went under you guys went over
Starting point is 01:50:09 just yell out when one's a lock for you Philly 51 and a half me and Rossello went under house went over Celtics 45 and a half
Starting point is 01:50:20 I went over Rossello went over house went under. I'm doing it. You would. Lock it down. 45 and a half over. Lock.
Starting point is 01:50:36 Knicks, 41 and a half. Over, over, over from all three of us. That's a house lock. I love the Knicks at 42 wins this year. Rossello, no locks yet for you. Toronto. Yeah, I lost track of what they were. I think I got a lot of West Coast.
Starting point is 01:50:49 Toronto, 36 and a half. I have under. Russollo is over. House has under. Miami, 48 and a half. I have under. Russollo is under. House has over.
Starting point is 01:50:59 Atlanta Hawks, 47 and a half. I have over. I'm making that a lock. I have over. I'm making that a lock. I have over. I'm making that a lock. Lock it up. Wow.
Starting point is 01:51:08 Triple lock. Triple lock. Kiss of death. That's another one. We should have some music for triple lock. Charlotte Hornets. Nate McMillan fired in February. You know, they didn't really, they just didn't respond. Charlotte Hornets, 37 and a half.
Starting point is 01:51:20 Do it. I'm not ready to do it. He wants to do it. Over. He does. He did two weeks ago. I'm not going to do it. You guys to do it. Over. He does. He did two weeks ago. I'm not going to do it. You guys have two unders.
Starting point is 01:51:27 Wizards, I'm over. Rosillo under. House over. Orlando, 21 and a half. I have an under. I'm going to go lock.
Starting point is 01:51:37 Rosillo's over. House under. Lock. Under. I'm allowed to go up to four locks. I only have three. I'll lock that up. Yeah,
Starting point is 01:51:44 I like that lock. Milwaukee Bucks, over under 55 and a half. We all have over Indiana Pacers. I'm under Rosillo's over houses over. You have a lock and that's a lock for me. I like this Indiana team. Chicago bulls, 43 and a half. We're all under Cleveland Cavaliers, 27 and a half. I'm over. House is over. Rusillo, under. Pistons, 25 and a half. We're all under.
Starting point is 01:52:11 So I guess my question is, do I want to use my third lock for Bulls under or Hornets over? Hornets. You've been on this for weeks. Yeah, I'm going to text about it. You are.
Starting point is 01:52:23 It's more fun to read Hornetsornis, I'm with you. 37 and a half. So there you go. All right. Part one was produced by Kyle Creighton, our guy. The Ness. Part two will be coming as well. Keep a lookout for it.
Starting point is 01:52:34 We'll be doing the rest. See you then. I don't have.

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