The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The Midwest and Southwest Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Jokic, Ja, SGA, and Luka

Episode Date: October 17, 2023

In Part 1 of a three-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House to run through NBA win totals for the Midwest and Southwest divisions. (01:02) Nuggets (10:24) Timberwolves (19:31) Thunder (28:32) Jazz (34:31) Trail Blazers (38:47) Grizzlies (51:40) Mavericks (59:50) Pelicans (1:06:29) Rockets (1:12:52) Spurs Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ryen Russillo and Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, part one of the three-part annual NBA Overs extravaganza with Brasilo and House. Can't wait. Next. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me. I can't go a day without sports. I really can't.

And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on Prime. All season long, watch Prime Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL's best. They're all on prime prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of

Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers

and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller Time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller Time.

Must be legal drinking age. We're brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find the Ringer Gambling Show with Joe House, as well as Fairway Rowland. Yeah. Ryan Rosillo's podcast named after him. It's called the Ryan Rosillo Podcast. Hey guys, excited to be here. We're going to do a three-part podcast. This is part one. We are doing two divisions per pop. We do the over-unders every year for the NBA. We are doing two divisions per pop. We do the over-unders every year for the NBA. We have a lot of fun doing it. We did really well last year.

We're not going to do as well this year. This year is really hard. This is part one. We did the Northwest and the Southwest and the Western Conference. Here we go. Pearl Jam. All right, Rossello, the Denver Nuggets, over under 52 and a half.

They won the NBA title last year. They are plus 550 to win the title. They won 53 games last year and the over under is right, right there. I'll start here. Is this the most realistic mini dynasty we've had since the 2017 Warriors range where you could totally see a team winning like three and four years, maybe 2015 Warriors, somewhere in that Warriors range. You've been on this for a while now,

just because I think when you saw him, what, live twice in that Lakers series, did you go to two of those games? I went to a bunch of them, yeah. You just came back. You were like glowing about him. Yeah. And I was like,

they haven't even won the whole thing yet. Yeah. Like, I think this is the best team. Look, that answer I don this is the best team. Look, that answer I don't have for you. But, if you look at how they finished last year,

they were 46-19. They went 7-10 the rest of the way. They weren't challenged by anybody in the West. I think there's just going to be, it's likely there's a little bit more of a challenge to them.

Maybe they won't care about seeding like no one does, but I think this is one of those repeats where I actually like the over. Me too, House. What do you think?

They only have to win the same number of games that they won last year to get the over. So it doesn't feel like a big stretch. You're coming in that hot? Well, how about this? I thought there might be

a little bit of foreplay to this. We're going right on Denver. We're going right to the... Normally, we would have started with the Pacific, right? Because that's the most interesting division. We do them in part two. But I do feel like Denver's gotten overlooked where they lost Bruce Brown.

Cool. They're going to replace him with Christian Brown. He's going to get most of the minutes. They like a bunch of these rookies. They're probably going to hit on one of them. They're going to have trades that they can make in December, January, February if they feel like they're missing something hey we haven't even got jamal murray's not gonna be coming back from anything right he's gonna be coming back from looking

one of the best guards in the west and if you go those first few weeks i remember watching those games being like oh man yeah you could see it just wasn't there yet the rest so all you have to have them is be challenged which we'd expect with the depth of the west and murray to just be the same guy all the way through and like look i like bruce brown too but this is yokich is he's he's curry in that when you put somebody with him that guy's ceiling is that much higher and all you have to do is look at aaron gordon so i i feel like you know if you're the gm of the nuggets there's a bunch of players you might not like where you'd be like, well, I like him now because of who we have here.

Yeah, you'd check out like, can we throw in Reggie Jackson for two months, see if he's got anything left. If he doesn't, we'll flip him. Right, 100%. There'll be all those guys. There'll be waiters available. Yeah.

A lot of Strother buzz. Is Dan recovered from whatever he's recovering from? Is Ricky Davis still playing? The two-man thing with Joker and Murray, I actually think they have the championship belt. And I don't think it's debatable because they won the title. But I think what those two guys do together is still the most special thing in the league.

Now, Giannis and Dame might challenge that. Everybody got excited. We're taping this on a Monday. There's a preseason game yesterday. Giannis was like orgasmic after. He's like, I've never had space on a basketball court before. I've never played with anybody who's been double teamed before.

It's just like shots galore being fired at people he went inside with, but not really. I'm not going to get excited about a preseason game. So does that mean Giannis isn't going to barrel his head down into three defenders now? I feel like that's still going to happen. But yeah, Jokic, Murray, Giannis, Dame,

Booker, KD. And then there's probably like, who would you have fourth in the two man championship rankings? Would you have Butler and Bam? Would you have Tatum and Brown? Would you have Anthony Davis and Austin Reeves? I knew it. I knew you were doing that. I knew you were going to do that. Curry and whoever, who would you have fourth? I had Butler and Bam actually. You see what I did there? I knew you were going to do that. Curry and whoever. Who would you have fourth? I had Butler and Bam, actually. Ahead of Tatum and Brown? Yeah. Yeah. Two finals in four years.

Okay. And Bam's better than Jalen. Yeah, I would rather have Bam than Jalen. But it's just funny. It almost feels like you're not allowed to say you'd rather have Tatum than Jimmy Butler, even though I think we still think Tatum's just a little bit better than Butler.

Yeah, and I think he's a better MVP candidate. There's a higher ceiling for him at this point. Butler's going to be in his mid-30s pretty soon, maybe even this year. The Steph part feels dismissive to not include him in it. But, like, whenever I hear teams or anyone talking about, like, the top two, right? Yeah.

Because it's really been about, like, who are the top two, Who are the top two? Where now we have like a couple options with Phoenix or Milwaukee with the third guy. We're like, oh, we could be back on this. But whenever we do the top two, I feel like we prioritize who the second guy is way more than who the first guy is.

The second banana guy. Yeah. So with Steph, you're like, are we really going to leave him out of the four no matter who that second guy is? It's tough because I don't even know who the second guy is. I guess you would say Klay, but you could also say Wiggins if he gets his

shit together this year. And you could also say Draymond, who might have been the best defensive player in the league last year. Yeah, but it just... To say him as a two... Yeah, well, that's why he's lower. Then there's like some Foxy bonus, Moby Mitchell. There's a Kawhi PG upside piece,

but we haven't really seen it in four years. I can't wait to get to that. Yeah. So I, you know, I still think it's Jokic Murray. And I thought what Murray did in the playoffs last year, cannot be swept under the rug.

I believe that's who he is. I don't think he got hot. I think that's who he is as a player. And I think this team's going to have a little edge to it this year because they won the title. And then it's like, okay, who's going to win? Is it going to be the Lakers? It'd be going think this team's going to have a little edge to it this year because they won the title. And then it's like, okay, who's going to win? Is it going to be the Lakers?

Is it going to be Golden State? Is it going to be Milwaukee? Is it going to be Boston? And they're just not mentioned. They might not care, but I think they care a tiny bit. I think Mike Malone cares. I think he rides that stuff.

The only edge that I anticipate is when they play the Lakers. Otherwise, you know, the temperament of the Joker is such, like the team goes how how his yeah he just leaves he's an emotional yeah but I mean does anybody think maybe he's doing a little bit too much how little he cares about you think he cares more I think he cares more than this whatever he's presented I think there's a level of caring a little higher than maybe what he

presents now I'm not saying like it not saying it's a complete act. Some of the back and forth of them in the Lakers is hilarious. I forget who had it or whatever. It was like, ooh, the Lakers had conversations this offseason about Denver. Yeah. They're like, whoa. They did? Does Denver know this?

So, you know, it's all so new because Denver was, usually you were right for kind of writing them off. Yeah. You know, you're like, how, how good is this team? And I know, you know, we talk about the defense and the, and the road stuff. It was funny. Like I looked through the, the top six seeds last year in the West, only two teams had a winning record on the road. Five of the top six in the East had a winning record on the road, which is usually an indicator. So if you're asking me if it's a dynasty, it's too soon for me, but if you're asking me if this was just phase one of like the second phase of domination, you know, I know we're spending a lot of time on them, but they deserve it. That's

why when I looked at 52, I was like, God, I love that. I love that number. Because it had been 54, 55 and a half. You're like, I don't know if I can go that high with it. Don't you think House, he's a guaranteed 50 if he's going to like 72 games yokage that's it there you go it's like the old tin Duncan corollary yes sorry pencilman for 50 plus I think that Christian Brown replacing all the stuff Bruce Brown did last year is probably the variable but I also think he can do it I'm a believer what do you think of the rookies I know you were into that draft but KOC is all excited about the rookies and their young player potential they have. Yeah. I feel like they just were like, we're going to role player this, you know, but everyone is a better role player with Jokic. Yeah. Your life is just going to be easier. So,

I mean, look, we're still sitting here. They want a title and we're wondering like who their one through four is because Michael Porter Jr. is still probably disappointing. Yeah. But not as your fourth best guy. No, I mean, he's really expensive, and we know it's a medical risk, but he hasn't really delivered the way you think he could, not because of pre-draft stuff. There are flashes with him where I think he's one of the 10 best shot makers in the NBA. I'm serious.

The stuff he can do, getting a shot off and making it off the dribble with his size and everything, you're like, when he gets it rolling. Now, a lot of it with him is ever just kind of putting it all together it was a slow start where there were very few glimpses i think malone was you know there were years ago where they were hurt at the perimeter and he still wouldn't play the guy yeah so it's been a slow going for him but there's still like some hope that wait a minute what if he what if he's just putting it together on a night-to-night basis, doing more of the stuff that he's supposed to be doing on top of the shot making, where their profile is even higher? I wonder, we had the big three stuff for a while,

and then we moved into a big two thing kind of last spring. I wonder if big four is going to become the new thing. I hope so. The Celtics have a nice, strong big four, and then plus the Porzingis piece, but denver's big four i think best four since like 92 you think not since what was the one with al abdanabi yeah that one uh but yeah the four-man stuff and that's where like the milwaukee case falls apart a little bit because i don't you know their fourth is middleton we'll talk about them later but i just don't know what i'm getting from middleton at this point in his career. He was already sitting out games and practices and stuff.

I like Denver's four, and I think they'll be able to figure out the pieces around. So that's an easy over for me. Over for you, House? Over. Over. Okay. Well, that was easy.

Now it gets tough. Let's go to Minnesota. 44 and a half. They are one of 17 West teams with a 44 and a half over under. They're plus 550 for the division, which is basically a Jokic will get hurt bet. Minus 144 for the playoffs, plus 102 for no playoffs. They finished 42 and 40 last year.

And I guess the over comes down to this question. House, can Edwards become a second team all NBA guy? That's the only question? For them to be, that's the biggest question for me. Okay. So we're talking, he's swimming in the ocean with Curry, SGA, Booker, Murray, Lillard, Mitchell Mitchell and then you get into that Fox

Brunson group but do you think he can be an All-NBA guy this year? I do I do as well I believe it because of

what we just saw from him on the world stage and what we've learned over the years about guys who get into that

situation that opportunity and thrive and what it does in terms of boosting their overall, their own confidence, their primacy. Practice habits. Like everything. Everything that you learn.

All the coach quotes about how much they loved him. That's it, yes. What do you have, Rosillo? All NBA possible for him? Hey, look, I love him, and I think everything's possible for him. I mean, he's one of the few guys like that early on. Once you started seeing him play,

you'd be like, you know, she's shooting you a text or whoever, and's one of the few guys like that early on. Once you started seeing him play, he'd be like, you know, she's shooting you a text or whoever and be like, are you watching this guy? And then it felt like his personality was like the right kind of personality to bet on. And then everybody loved him. I was hearing Finch the other day

talk about him and he's like that. You know, it's funny because I used to always dismiss it with you whenever you would talk about playing for Team USA. I'm like, why do you think this is that big of a deal? I won you over on my Team USA theory?

Yeah, because I think- With everyone but Brandon Ingram? He was like, what's the dual citizenship story in France? Like, what do I need to do for that? Is there paperwork? So I started, look, it took a long time for me, but I've started to buy into it a little bit. Yeah, I like it.

That just being around the other guys. And the coaches and the culture. Right, right. The practice habits. Yeah. I like it. That just being around the other guys. And the coaches and the culture. Right, right. The practice habits. Yeah. So I'm in now, but I don't know how in I am

on the rest of the guys. Like, I just, it's a tough number. You know, it's three more wins than last year. There's no reason why he shouldn't take it

to another level to be able to do that. But like, how many games is Towns going to miss? How many games is he going to be cleared and then not want to come back? You know, how many?

Wow. Shots. No, I'm just serious. Like I don't, you know, we've been able to get one guy away from him. We need to get the second guy. That's phase two of the Timberwolves operation here. What do you think of Towns house?

He was under the microscope this summer because it didn't seem like anybody wanted to trade for him, including Portland, including the Knicks. The trade market for him with the contract that he has was not robust. It's literally a glass half full, glass half empty approach to him. Do you say that he will regard this upcoming season as the opportunity to remind everybody of who he is,

his ability to play with Gobert. There was some friction. The Dr. Dre 2001 range? Yeah, right. I got to show everybody. I still got it. Don't forget about Cat. Right.

That was well executed for a guy that's been 50. I tried my best. Don't forget about it. Priscilla was impressed. I was trying. I thought it was funny that you asked. It's like you forgot and then you didn't.

Yeah. No, I forgot about it. I forgot about it. Because I was trying to do it. You got the dramatic pause in there. It was good. Continue. Edwards, to me, isn't the fulcrum player.

It's Kat. Kat's the difference for this team. Their fortunes depend on how many games does he play and does this combination with Gobert work. I think Gobert is ready to be the role guy that makes the most sense. So this is really up to Chris Finch and Carl Anthony Towns. And I'm not going to say which way I'm leaning on the total until you give me permission, but I really like this Minnesota team.

I think there are like eight or nine good guys on this team. Towns only played 29 games last year. The year before, he played 74 and averaged 25 and 10, basically, and shot 53, 41, 82 percentages. So if you're just like crunching numbers in a computer, you're like, is this one of the 12 best guys in the league without ever watching a basketball game? And then you watch them and it feels different. But there's something I think about with every single team and every single, like, and I don't want to be this negative,

but like, what's your shithead vibe factor on any team? And like, when we get to Memphis a little bit later on, a lot of guys I really like, but last couple of years, like you guys say and do stuff that's just like, like DeAndre Ayton, when he got introduced to Portland, and he's like, hey, I'm here to dominate. That's my name, Dominate. And we're like, who are you working with? Like, who? You know what?

Like, that sounds really good. But are you trying to. Dominate? So you didn't like Dominate? Not for him. I didn't because i've watched him play and so it's like wait so is everybody else's fault so towns has some of that stuff when he does these interviews he just shouldn't give interviews at all yeah it's like

the leo dicaprio just i i referenced it too many times but when ben simmons did that sit down with jj that hour-long thing i go i don't need to know anything more about him. I go, I'm good. And so I have certain players now. I'm that way with Jada Pinkett at this point. I'm good. I'm good, Jada. Yeah. There's just interviews where you go, oh.

Unhappy marriage. I get it. Yeah. You need Tupac. So I really like a lot of the guys on this team. I like Kyle Anderson. Like Mike Conley. McDaniels punched a wall right at the end of their on this team. I like Kyle Anderson. I like Mike Conley. McDaniels punched a wall right at the end of their season last year.

Still like them. Still like them. Really like Nas Reed. Kind of enjoys Shake Milton. I just think they have too much talent. Listen, this was the most overrated five-game loss in recent NBA history. But they did impress me against Denver in that playoff series. Yeah.

They really did. I don't know why. I can't get it out of my head. Did you ever feel like Denver was remotely threatened by them? I just thought they gave them good games. I thought they were competitive. More meaningful for Minnesota than for Denver, right? In your casting of this.

Yeah. I think they had two big guys to throw. For growth purposes. Where the league's heading, where the league's gotten a little bit bigger, like they have some size and some, you know, they haven't proven that they can play Gobert and Towns together

and be a team that wins 60% of its games. But for me, it's an over because of Edwards. And I think he has a chance to, I just think I've seen this before. I've followed this league enough times and I've seen the arc and he's hit all the checkpoints of the arc. We've seen just every single stretch of it.

And I just think he's going to have a huge year. And if he has a huge year, that's a 45 win team because they have defense and rebounding. They have Mike Conley, which they haven't really had before, assuming he has one year left. So for me, it's an overhouse. Are you under or over?

I'm over. I'm not ready to do lock, but as we go through this and start thinking about locks, they're on my list. And you're under, Priscilla? Yeah, I am. And I don't like it

because it's just not a reflection on Edwards. It's a reflection on... I think even if Edwards gets it rolling, it's going to bother Towns. Right. I think that's the problem is that it clearly should be Edwards' team all the time. And you don't think Towns is going to be sitting around going, how do I make Anthony Edwards better? No. How can I be his wingman? Because he's another guy who doesn't think he's done anything wrong with his approach to playing the game.

Well, so that leads me to my final question before we move on from Minnesota. If I had to give you an over-under of 10 more months for Townsend-Gobert together, this experiment, 10 more months that would take us into trade stuff next July. Oh, nine months. Let's say nine months. Over-under nine months, those guys will still be teammates. Would you go over or under that?

I'd probably still say over because I think it's the reluctance to trade in the league. And I don't think Go Bears. I would also say over because I think it's going to work this year. I would go over as well. I think it's going to be rocky.

It's going to be weird. Yeah, but if they're winning high 40s, then what are you doing? Yeah. I think all the rocky and weird was last year. I think they got that.

I mean, this is why, it's Ryan's point, is like, Towns has to grow up. If he's a grown up, then their ceiling is a high ceiling.

So you have them playoffs or no playoffs? I have them playoffs, but I just have them under that number. Because their no playoffs is plus 102. Their playing is plus 140. So them not being one of the top six. I know it gets weird when

you go through the West, you start feeling like you're running out of playoff spots, but I mean, just because I have it in the under, I don't think they're like dramatically under. I think it's a really good number. Okay. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research.

And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Movember. of high-intensity focused ultrasound waves, zero incisions. And that very same day, two steady hands. From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special. Learn more at sunnybrook.ca slash special. Next team, my beloved Oklahoma City Thunder,

who I already went all in on last week on my podcast. They're over under, it's 44 and a half. They're six to one for the division, 85 to one for the title. They were 40 and 42 last year. And I am over on them. I am over to the point that the big FanDuel boost this year, which we hit last year.

And I, they're going to, I think put it up on the site on Wednesday, maybe Thursday, but it's going to be Celtics 50 plus wins, Lakers 45 plus wins, and Oklahoma City 40 plus wins. They're going to boost that to like plus 250. I have Oklahoma City as either the fourth or the fifth best team in the West, and I accept all counter arguments.

They're too young. They're a year away. They're not going to go for it yet. I just think there's too much talent. I think the Chet thing is being slept on is how important're not going to go for it yet i just think there's too much talent i think the chet thing is being slept on is how important that's going to be for what they were last year and what they need this year i think this team is competitive as fuck built for the regular season just to be good week after week after week i'm not saying they're going to make the second round or

even make the conference finals i just think as a regular season team this is a team that's going to be in the mid 40s and maybe even a little bit higher they have just think as a regular season team, this is a team that's going to be in the mid-40s and maybe even a little bit higher. They have a top guy. They have a guy, Shea was first team in the NBA last year. Giddy continues to get better. Jalen Williams, the last two months of the season, I don't know how many times we texted about him or so,

but really looks like he might have a chance to be somewhat special. And then you talk about the Chet piece of it, and I just think they're going to be a bitch to play. I really like them. They're deep. I haven't heard your thoughts, Rousselano. Okay, C, where do you stand?

I feel like everybody likes them so much that I want to zag a little bit. I feel like Shea is just be given a first-class ticket to superstardom when normally it's like... The 31 a game, did it impress you? Of course it did, but... The 11 free throws a game

well playing with that a center i'm not going to admit that i i always love that he just basically can go right underneath the rim and then like he's so herky-jerky it just works every single time so it's not as gross as some of the other guys with the way they they get all their free throws. I guess I just... Like, are we sure he is, like, unimpeachable top 10 player in the NBA already? I feel like he is because I watched him over and over again last season go toe-to-toe with the best players in the league, and it felt like a 50-50 type of crunch time with him

against the best players in the league. So you'd rather have Shea, Gildress, Alexander than Devin Booker? I don't think I would actually. But I think for if you're talking regular season, I think Shea's credentials have been more impressive. We watched him last year

basically drag that team to the playoffs and it was like the youngest team in the league. They didn't have a center and they still went 40 and 42. I have no idea how they did it. It was more impressive than anything Booker did before Chris Paul got there. You're right. No, Booker didn't have much. I think I did the Ringer 100 rankings

and you were texting me about Booker versus Tatum, which I know I'll probably talk to at some point. I think I undervalued Booker maybe by two, three spots because I'm with you as a big game guy. And I think there's going to be a real burn in his saddle this year with this son's team. But I was, maybe I'm overrating what SGA did last year,

but I was just so knocked. I just couldn't believe how good he was last year. What do you think house? Where do you stand? The it's a math problem because of the combination of how much improved. I think the West is, we're not going to have gold state and the Lakers, you know,

hovering around the play in line this upcoming season. And they got better by 16 wins last year. So it's like that climb, it's a tall climb to go from, you know, a 16-win improvement to another five-win improvement. Well, hold on on that climb, because I did this on my pod, but I just want to read these stats again really quick. My theory on them was that if a team, if a young team, if the assets are special enough,

they will jump. Like they're going to head into the 50s sooner than you think, because we saw it happen with OKC in 09, they won 23 games. They went to 50 in 2010. They went to 55 in 2011. And went to 55 in 2011 and they were in the finals in 2012. But with that team, everybody was like, well, Westbrook's not a point guard.

That's I know KD is good, but I don't see it. And then all of a sudden it was, they were doing it. Golden state was in a similar spot, 2012. They won 23, 2013 jumped to 47. It's like, well, that was weird. Well, weird season. What does that mean? 2014, 151 and 2015, they went 67. And then you go back to the 99 Mavs. They were 19 and 31 in the lockout year, 40 wins in 2000, 53, they jumped to an 01 and then 57 and 02. And that was with Dirk and Nash. So the question for me is, are the OKC assets special enough to potentially be in that conversation? And honestly, that comes down

to where you feel on Chet. If you feel like Chet can be an impactful guy this year, they have four guys that I think for under 23 guys, Shay's a little older, but Giddy, Chet, Jalen Williams, and SGA, I think that's a pretty special nucleus, Rosillo.

You seem like you're a tiny bit lower on it. No, but I'm going to go over. Oh. Wow. You prepared me for a Zag. I don't even know what that's called. That was like a pre-Zag. That was like an un-Zag?

I was going to go under, but I knew that the only reason I was really doing it was because it was like, wait a minute. Every time you watched them last year, they were better prepared than most teams. Yeah. They have a bunch of different ways they can attack you. They didn't have really any frontline guy. And here they were fighting for the back end of the playoffs in the West.

They played small ball. Unbelievable. And they were really well coached. Right. And even though Chet isn't like the traditional five man that's going to be running around all the time, he just adds another level of resistance that you weren't going to have with the what's a really a power forward in jalen williams right um and then the other jalen williams everybody loves and it looks like you know this guy could be somebody who maybe makes a couple all-star teams which you know is is you

add that to the giddy part i guess i'm like as great as Shea's numbers were and the way everybody talks about him, it's like, do they really have enough of a second guy to be like a 45, 47 win team? It's a good case. Who's the second guy? It's really the argument. That's exactly it. I'm under.

Under? I think they're a 44 win team. House, you fucking traitor. But they also, like, I think they've burned me like three years in a row where I've gone like, oh, that team's going to suck. And then you're watching them and you're going, oh, they're super prepared. They play really hard. They're not going to suck.

Because Dagnall is two years ago. Two years ago when they had 24 wins. But I think we got, like, going into that year, that roster, I'm like, oh, they're going to go under. They're going to try to get the pick. And then last year's number was a lot lower than the 40. I think they're going to be a hard team to play when they're home too. Like they,

I think they were last year. They're bringing off Trey, Trey, man, case on Wallace, the other Jalen Williams, Dort might be coming off the bench, but they're going to have these teams.

They can throw out as like a second unit, like with real defense, with real energy, with some shooting. I really liked this team. And you were talking about your instinct was to zag because so many people like them. This is how I got into trouble with NFL this year with the lions and with the Jaguars. I was like, oh man, everyone likes the lions. I, I, I'm going to. I'm going to zag and do Green Bay. And then you watch two Lions games and you're like, holy shit. How did I go against the Lions?

No, you're right. You're right. Because I don't think there's a higher neutral approval rating of any NBA team than OKC right now. Yeah. Of all the stuff you read and go through it. I'm like, man, everybody just likes them. So that's why. But like, I don't know.

Well, there's one other piece. They can get five more wins. We didn't talk about all the picks. I'll just do it quickly, but they have two top four protected from Houston in 24-26.

They have Clippers unprotected in 24-26. What a disaster. They have another swap. It's like going back and thinking that you gave up those picks.

Oh my God. They have a swap with the Clips in 25. They have a Philly top six in 26. Like they might not have Embiid at that point. The top 14 from Miami, two top fives from Denver, and they have all their own picks.

So, you know, if somebody, let's say, I actually think Toronto is going to be better than most, but let's say Siakam becomes available. Or let's say they just decide we need one more big guy. KOC threw out Robert Williams last week. It was like, Robert Williams sounds great for this team. Let's just add him for 20 minutes a game. I think it's gonna be really easy

for them to add one more guy and it'll probably be a big guy. But I like where they are. I'm in on this team. To me, the question would be, why not us? Copyright Curt Schilling, almost 20 year anniversary. Why not us? Good time for a Schilling reference.

Everybody likes that guy. He's red hot right now. All right. So, House over. Super high up. Rosillo over. I'm sorry. House under.

Rosillo over. Simmons over. Okay. It doesn't get any easier with the Utah Jazz. Over under 35 and a half. They went 37 and 45 last year. To make the playoffs, they're plus 420. To make the playing game, they're plus 250.

Is this the single best asset team for you, other than OKC, from a players' picks, just things standpoint, Rosillo? Just things. I like Oklahoma City's players better. I have OKC one. I think Utah might be in the running for two. They own six of their next seven firsts.

They have three mini firsts and a swap. They have a Lakers first in 27. They have two Cleveland firsts and a Cleveland swap. So they have all these different things they can do. And it also looks like they nailed the draft. I hate overacting in preseason. I hate it. I try not to watch too much of it.

But this Keontae George, like really seems like he might actually be special right away. Like, I don't know how they're going to keep him off the court. Have you watched him, Priscilla? Yeah. I mean, he was, like there's certain games in college. If you watch the Kansas game,

you're like, how did this guy not go top five? Right. He has some of that in him. But then there's, you watch some of the other the Kansas game, you're like, how did this guy not go top five? Right. He has some of that in him. But then there's watch some of the other stuff he does. You're like, okay, this is why he hung around for a little while. But, you know, you'd at least rather see a guy. I think he's playing at fog where he was incredible. And you're like, you're playing there in that environment that young.

Yeah. There's no issues whatsoever. But, you know, like any of these kind of score first guys that put up big numbers in high school and you're like, are you just defaulting to all this shit that worked in high school

all the time? Look, one of my other favorite guys is Taylor Hendricks. Yeah. Even though I know, I know I can see the bad side of this.

Yeah. Where it's like, yeah, he actually just wasn't that good or into it. But he was so smart, he's that big and he could actually shoot. But the George call,

if they decide they have to play him a lot at point guard in the nba this early that's what has me leaning under and they got off to that great start last year i think that's the other part house so this is the problem with them because you have to make a choice about whether you think they want to be competitive or not because will hardy is another stud coach like we're all we're talking about are these teams with these incredible coaches. Well, and to that problem,

they owe their 24 first to OKC, and it's top 10 protected. So they're in that, you know, let's say they're 25 and 26 with 31 games to go, and it's like, what do we want to do? Do you want to, like, make a run and we still fall short of the play-in, and then we give the 11th pick to OKC?

Is that worth it? Yeah, look, they were 10-3. Yeah, this is the point. Yeah. Remember? Because I think we all had them under. We did. Because I forecasted what they were doing last year.

We thought they had a specific intention. And it wasn't that. We were dead wrong. And what also gives me pause is there are credible reports that they went hard after Dame. A team going after Dame at this stage of where he is in his career. And, you know, that's not a team that is looking to reduce their competitive, you know, level.

So I don't know. When Markkinen played last last year they were a 500 team they won 49 of the games and mark and then played yeah there's the two pass this is one of the hardest overs because i could see them being sellers in january february like olenek is a perfect january february guy it makes like 12 million a year could totally see like the celtics miami there's a bunch of teams you could just see him on collins is flippable and uh i bet i i keep looking at their team and i but how do you trade for collins and then go under right although i just think john collins is kind of this mystery guy

all the time do you know he's only 26 oh yeah no he's like the youngest guy it's unbelievable tatum thinks he's old. It's like Taylor Horton Tucker is 22. That was the other one where I was like, wait, what? I feel like he's been in the league for 10 years. Here's the case for them

going over house. We've watched Danny do this before with the Celtics in the mid-2010s. It was like, rebuild. Here we go. They're collecting a lot of assets. And then all of a sudden, he'll zag.

Like, he did that Isaiah Thomas trade. What year was that? 2014? Yeah, they were supposed to be rebuilding and they were just actually competitive. All of a sudden they were a playoff team. Yeah. And it was like, wait a second,

what are we doing? And then a year later, they're in round two in the East Finals. And he's like how I try to be when I play fantasy football, where I'm just like, I don't ever, or fantasy baseball too, I'm never going for it or not going for it. I'm always like, what's the right trade? But I'm just

trying to have fun. And Danny Ainge is the real life GM of that. Like this could be a situation where Toronto is like, eh, we don't know if we want Siakam anymore. And Danny's like, what do you want for him? And all of a sudden he's trading for Siakam. And the owner's like, wait, I thought we weren't going for it this year. And Danny's like, yeah, Siakam, he's good. We just got, we'll figure it out. So 36 doesn't seem like a lot. I think I'm a, or it's 35 and a half. I think I'm an over.

I think I'm an over also. And this is my fourth straight over, which believe me, I have just a shitload of unders coming. But I think I'm an over for them. I think they're somewhere in the mid-high 30s. The problem is the rest of the West, I'm like, whose wins am I taking from? Yeah. Yes.

They're also a very good home team. That's why I went under on OKC, by the way. Okay. That math problem that Ryan just described. You over or under? I'm under. I don't like doing that to Will Hardy, but... I like their talent.

I really like their coach. And even if they decide to pack it in near the end, that still might be enough to keep that top 10 pick. But... And Agbaje, we didn't even mention him. They doubled down on Jordan Clarkson. They gave him more money. Kessler just played in Team USA. Didn't play that much, but I think he was one of the surprise guys. Chris Dunn on Jordan Clarkson. They gave him more money. Kessler just played in Team USA.

Didn't play that much, but I think he was one of the surprise guys. Chris Dunn back in the fold. Chris Dunn is back. This could be the year. All right. Well, last one I'm going under just because I can't do five unders in the same division, but it's the Portland Trailblazers. 27 and a half is the over-under.

And as much as I love this team as a league pass team, and I do like a lot of the assets, the West is too good and something's got to give. And this team will be a seller, I think, December, January with Brogdon and with Robert Williams. Keeping those guys would be nuts. Maybe even Jeremy Grant, who they just signed to an extension.

But I think this team will aggressively try to get more picks as we head to December, January. And that 27 and a half is just a lot when every night you're playing a good team. So it's an under for me, Russillo. What do you got? I have an under as well. I mean, even if they don't trade those guys,

when you have a young backcourt that's also going to be bad defensively, they would have to be at a really high level offensively immediately. Like, I think Aiton's going to put up better numbers than we've seen from him in years. It's the mold Joe Barry Carroll, like 22 and 12. I just think Aiton's going to be like a little less deferential

to this group than he would be to Chris Paul while he was still there, you know, Durant, Booker. Like, it's just a little tougher to be like, hey, can I have the ball more? And this group, he can do it. I can't wait. I mean, even the scoop preseason stuff, there's moments where I just get so aroused. Sorry. Yeah. I'll just say it. The pick and roll stuff with him is pretty, pretty special. His gear to finish. Like when you were kind of like, wait, is he think he's going to finish right now? And kind of like wait is he think he's gonna finish right now yeah and

that's like one of my favorite thing with small players be like wait this guy's gonna be able to finish because we'll see other like super athletic smaller players be like oh guess what you're gonna play in the league a long time but you're never ever once gonna be able to finish the rim you just you don't have that finishing package so um i'm with you i can't wait to watch i think eight has better numbers they're not going to trade all these guys. You know, I don't think that would happen, but I think it's a numbers game

in the West, so I'm under 27 and a half. They'll flip Brogdon and I think they'll flip Robert Williams. Okay. They might want Robert Williams, though.

Like, if he stays healthy, which is a massive if, almost an unlikely if, if he stays healthy to put next to Aiton defensively. Although, I don't know. Like, Robert Williams sometimes...

That's pretty weird. Yeah, but there's also, and this is to your point, there seems to be like a lot of big defensive guys that have these insane metrics that I'll watch and like go, is that guy actually that good on defense

or is he being asked to do, it's the Brooke Lopez thing. We talked about this before. It's either the Brooke Lopez or it's the guy who plays nine minutes and he's an awesome nine minutes. He's going full speed, but you can't translate it to 40. Yeah, because when you looked at the Brook Lopez stuff,

it was like, look what he does now on contests at the rim. And I was like, okay, well, let me look at it from this way. He never has to move. And he's got one of the best perimeter defenders ever in Drew and in Giannis, who's just kind of horrifying to be around. We'll see what his stats are this year with Dame Lillard trying to stop, you know, Trey Young. Good luck. Yeah, so I've

come to the point where I like I'm even more, like with more access to numbers, I'm even more confused. Because there's just some numbers out there with some of these big guys that tell you that they're point differential and, you know, even the Jaron, some of the Jaron Jackson numbers are absurd. And you're like, so what, okay, but what does that mean?

Like, you're not going to score on him or he's only. Then he gets like five rebounds in three team USA games. We knew that was coming. Yeah. Yeah. I'm still mad about it. There's a Chauncey Billups piece to this too,

house. It's an under. I mean. Oh, hey, take it easy. I'm a guy. I don't like that.

It's an under. Love Chauncey the player. Yeah. I'm not sure. This is a really weird team where you have a bunch of guys who are like, hey man, I could probably use five more shots a game. Jeremy Grant,

like, hey man, clear out. Because he had that in Detroit. I didn't resign here to stand in the corner. Simons is like, Dame's finally gone. Sharp is like, this is my year. Sharp's like, I'm the best guy in the team. Clear out for me. And then Ayton's like, I should be averaging 25 and 12. So I don't know. You got Chris Murray's and be like, I'm the best guy in the team. Clear up for me. And then Aiton's like, I should be averaging 25 and 12. So I don't know.

You got Chris Murray's and be like, my brother ain't shit. Kevin Knox, like finally. Yeah. And then poor Ty Ball, who's just going to have to guard everybody. Yeah, it's a weird team. It's an under for me. So three unders. Sorry, Portland.

We'll take a break and we'll hit the Southwest. Metro links and cross links are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Y'all afraid of ghosts? How about ghost peppers? It's the moment you've been waiting for.

The ghost pepper sandwich is back at Popeye's. A buttermilk battered chicken breast served on a brioche bun with barrel cured pickles. And here's the best part. It's topped with a sauce made from ghost peppers and on show chilies. If that doesn't send a chill of anticipation down your spine, nothing will. Get your ghost pepper sandwich today at Popeye's before it ghosts you for another year. All right, we're moving to the Southwest. This pod's about to go on tilt. There are some weird teams in this division.

We'll start with the Memphis Grizzlies. 45 and a half is the over-under for them. They went 51 and 31 last year. They've been one of the most consistent, reliable regular season teams we have. Really, the only big thing they did was they brought in Marcus Smart. There's a Derrick Rose thing that people are excited about that I'm not even going to acknowledge because he hasn't been a rotation NBA guy in two years. Their depth is a little weaker and they don't have Ja for 25 games, which seems relevant

for the over-under. 45.5 seems too high for me because there's a Marcus Smart guys, I got this until Ja comes back that I just watched Marcus Smart for 10 years. Guess what? He doesn't have it. I'll

hold my thought. What are your quick thoughts on the Grizzlies I want to like them more but it was weird a couple years ago in that Golden State series where Ja started hinting at like wait a minute what's up with you remember he was like that's a code break and it's like nobody even touched

you and then it was like they talked all this shit but then when they would lose they couldn't do anything and then that carried over to the dylan brooks thing it can't all be dylan brooks fault no no but he's gone so you know whatever uh and they weren't healthy like they were very very unhealthy like if that team were healthy and there wasn't all the job bullshit i don't know if they lose that series of l Lakers. Last couple years without Ja, 21-22, they went 20-5. They went 11-10 without him last year. I think the defensive numbers, it's more than a small sample.

They're kind of better defensively without him. And I think they're all – I'm going over here. Despite some personality stuff with the team where i'd like it just to mature i also think the 25 game suspension looking is really excessive but that doesn't seem to be a popular opinion wow um it's a lot it feels like there was some sort of breach with the league and if there's more to it that i don't know i think there's more to it and we're just never gonna find out but if it's it seems like a lot but again in the moment, it's really hard to be the guy. I'd be like,

hey, this is really stupid. He shouldn't be doing this. I think 25 games is an insane number. But they have a good track record without him. And I still like this team when they're healthy. I think they've done a really good job with the depth of talent here. So I'm going over,

despite... I just want to see... I want to see this team, post-Brooks, jaw coming back. I just want to see this team post-Brooks, jaw coming back. I just want to see them be like the young, fun team. Okay, now be the grown-up team that beats other teams. What do you got, House?

Over. I like Memphis. Okay. I like the depth. This is one of our big disagreements so far. The point that Russillo made about their defensive numbers and their competitiveness defensively, especially at the beginning of the season during the suspension. This is when they're going to go out and catch some bodies.

We didn't get a real good feel for what the... He's laughing. No, we're in agreement. The Luke Kennard bit can't be understated. They haven't had a shooter like that. Which part that he's bounced around the league? Well, I mean, it's just a situation. This could be the best possible situation.

And Steven Adams returning to health means that Triple J gets to go back to the position that he should play, which is power forward. He's not comfortable playing center, which is why he only averages five rebounds. They were in the third-string center last year. I like Memphis. They also kick ass at home. You cannot understate how competitive they are in their own building. I think they lost five games last year at home.

Starting lineup is Smart and Bain. Looks like Zaire Williams, Triple J and Steven Adams. Off the bench. Kennard, unless he starts. David Roddy. Can't say I was impressed by him last year. The body. Lofton.

Tillman. Santi Aldama. Conchar. Derrick Rose. Aldama complains a lot, but he's a legit rotation guy. In the fourth quarter, by the way. I don't like the depth compared to where

they had it a couple years ago I don't I don't now this is where Berno's gonna come in like oh Jesus Christ Simmons

we win 50 games every fucking year what the fuck B minus he doesn't really he doesn't F-bomb that often he only F-bombs when we're on the phone or whatever. He doesn't often. You voted for

Marcus Smart two years ago, Defense Player of the Year! Hey, y'all say what you want, but Jon Conchar. I just think the 25, if you told me Ja was playing the entire season, I would go over. But if you're telling me they're going to go 46 and 36 when they're probably around a 50-win team,

do I think Ja being gone for one-third of the season is worth five less wins? I do. I think they're somewhere between 43 and 45. And that's where I have them. I have a question for you, Russillo, about the... Would you bet if I gave you minus 130 smart revenge comeback year plus 115 people realizing

in December the Celtics probably sold high on them where would you put your money well you already know the answer the sell high I mean the funniest thing ever of all the stuff that we get blamed for is like oh now you don't like smart because you get traded it's like have you not listened to us you just told on yourself yeah like this has not been the marcus smart fan pod no and i love marcus smart i did not love him last year i thought he looked like a tight end that was in his last legs of being a starter two years ago is the best basketball he's ever played but he was not that good three years ago Three years ago was, I thought, brutal. And when they talk about the defense with him, he got lit up by, I can't even count how many guards lit him up last year.

Everybody would get a boner because he would stand up against a power forward and be like, look at him. He can switch on anybody. He wasn't that good defensively last year. Now, maybe he was physically beaten up. Maybe he'll be awesome this year. Maybe he was climbing the mountain like Rocky Balboa

to have a fuck you year. Very possible. I told Verno, I thought that was possible. But I also think the Celtics, I think, feel like they sold high. So we'll see.

I wonder with him, you know, there was something going on between him and Joe Maz. There was. All season from game one. There was. I wonder if...

There was a leadership thing with him that I think they felt like he had a little bit of a hold over with him that I think they felt like he had a little bit of a hold over the team that maybe wasn't great

and I think they wanted the young guys to expand if we see him in Taylor Jenkins you know out there

I could see him being like it's Marcus time for a little bit here are my ideas yeah so that scares me on the total

and no Tyus Jones who's like I don't know if I've had a favorite backup love Tyus Jones he was, who's like, I don't know if I've had a favorite backup. Love Tyus Jones. He was really important for them. Right.

He's a guy. I don't know that I've ever liked a guy that comes off the bench as much as him in recent memory. I mean, granted, it's not like I voted him six man or anything like that. I don't think I did. Can we talk through the first 25 games of crunch time for them?

Where it's smart, Stephen Adams, who- No, it's just, this is what it is. Foul him, he's a bad free-thrusher. It's Desmond Bain after what number game going, hey. It's Desmond Bain just night after night being ridden and Canar spotting the... But over and over again, it's going to be like the Celtics where the ball's going to find smart with a minute left

and he's going to decide whether to win or lose. And I think that's 50-50, maybe a little worse. You might be pulling me back to the underside, but I'm not doing it. I know I'm going to watch this and go, oh, I can't believe I, or it's going to go the other way and go, oh my God, this team's really good.

I'm such an idiot. Because they were unhealthy on top of everything else they were going through. That was a really unhealthy team. But Adams is unhealthy all the time. I mean, he's 29 years old. He's played 2,000 NBA games. Even Zyre, who I didn't love.

Yeah. Like in the draft, he only played like 30 games for him last year. So I think... That's it for me. And Triple J's had some sort of injury, I think at least in three years, right? Yeah.

And played Team USA. Get hot. It's a lot of Desmond Bain. It's a lot of Marcus Smart. Just quickly, where do you have Ja in the can you please get your shit together rankings? Is he one?

I think he might be one for me, but you can make a strong case for Zion. Just ahead of Sandoval? I'd put a little reality TV in there for me. Yeah. I think I'm rooting for Ja way more than Sandoval. How about Zion? I think I'm rooting for Ja more than Zion, even though I like Zion more as a player,

because I think with Zion, it's like we can get a weird self-inflicted debate here or who's done the more egregious thing. But like some of the Ja stuff feels like a cry for help. Zion is just like, I don't give a fuck. Yeah, when the GM comes out during the summer and basically says, really proud of Zion.

He's handling himself like a professional all summer. It's like, cool. The guy's going to be his fifth NBA season. I'm psyched that he's been a professional. Yeah.

It just seems like it's a real problem as we'll get to when we'll talk about that. Zion's problems could be fixed with him just deciding, hey, I don't want to go down this path. You know what I mean? You don't think the same is true of Ja? Well, it's a different conversation

where you can win the debate against me by saying, well, Ja clearly is the guy that you'd be less likely to root for because he's doing this other stuff. Which, again, depends on what you believe. I agree with Rousseau. There's some cry for help stuff with Ja. Where it's like he already knew he was on a yellow card.

Ja at least knew like, hey, stay in shape and want to play basketball okay where zion you know the stuff i've heard from the three different you know for like they've tried everything with him they tried alvin gentry who was like i'm not gonna hold his hand he tried stan who you know has forgotten more about hoops than most people have but that didn't work and then it's like all right you're gonna bring in willie who i think is a terrific head coach. And now your guy Borrego's in there too. He's going to babysit him. Well, like,

I just don't want the 30 for 30 on Zion when he's 35. Well, we've certainly filmed the first 45 minutes of it. I could be totally wrong, but I've already convinced myself that like this was a lot of weird shit for Ja very quickly

but then again sometimes when I look at the tweets we've seen people bounce back from that though yeah but you know what I'm gonna actually I'm gonna challenge

there's been a few tweets from Ja where I'm like oh wait maybe you don't get it yeah like the stuff where maybe three times a week

for the therapy yeah the Zion piece of they were talking I saw on Twitter there was a there was a jumping clip

of him like in a layup line where he did a dunk and I saw it on Twitter or TikTok or my son sent it somebody sent it to me it was like

uh oh Zion's been putting in work and he just did like a dunk and I'm like that's not even close to what he looked like at Duke like athletically

he's not there anymore I don't think you're right i watched a duke duke science i completely did it's like a fucking one of one it's crazy how that happens like i was watching the steph harden game where steph had 33 in the second half after duran had gotten hurt. And even watching like those guys move around four years ago, it can almost be alarming. And watching the Duke-Zion stuff, you're like, oh, that guy's gone. Like he's gone forever.

Remember what happened to Blake Griffin in like 2012 Clippers, early Lob City Blake Griffin. And then by the time we got to 16 after he'd had a couple surgeries, he just wasn't the same explosive jumper anymore. No, Rasheed Wallace had a quote about this we're like i forget somebody came in because rashid used to just be violent at the rim like in the beginning and he was huge but he had massive pop and he had said something like you got you got those dunks for like four or five years right and i don't care who you are like you're just not going to have that same

exploit and i'm thinking like what can i be saying that at 26 27 but for a lot of guys he's kind of right and unfortunately we've been done we've been denied the zion it's never coming back i don't think dude i he closed out on a guy in the corner and blocked a three-point shot that was like the greatest basketball highlight moment of your life until the 19 things Wemby's going to do this year. Yeah, I don't know. Like, look, you just get bigger

as you get older and all that kind of stuff. Yeah. He's not in the air anymore. All right, we got to keep going. So we're going, I'm under, you guys are both over

on Memphis. Surprising. Okay. Dallas. We can spend one minute on this or we can spend 30. The over-under is 43.5. They're plus 185 for our division,

which is an interesting short of Memphis, if you want to get excited. They're somehow 25 to win the title. I'm happy to book those bets. Minus 192 for the playoffs. I don't know where to start. Where should we start, Rusillo? Okay, well, I mean, if you want to trump it all with they have kairi as their number two guy good luck with the over it's a hard argument to

counter but you know 43 and a half i think it's the lowest you're going to get with luca at the stage of his career i think luca finally is going to be a little pissed off about everything, feeling like he still was doing it the right way, even though he needed to kind of step up his game. He could make an excuse that his way was always working because they made it to the Western Conference Finals two years ago, which was still sort of weird with the fact that they beat Phoenix.

I'm still not quite over that one. But at 43 and a half, knowing they won 38 games last year, still were sort of tanking at the very end to protect the pick. And they won 15 two years ago. And I think Josh Green is going to be good. I think Grant gives them something stable.

You know, they also brought in Seth Curry. Something stable, like the sound of conversation? Well, he's just not Christian Wood. A voice talking? They don't have the Christian Wood option anymore. Because once you have to get christian wood on your team to understand like oh wait well we've had five years at luca how many guys have been like well we got to get rid of that guy well he doesn't fit here does anyone fit with luca oh it's definitely getting to like the dangerous i just feel like we've been so hard on James Harden

and it's just like, who does fit with Luka? No, it's. Seth Curry kind of fits with him because we've seen it and they brought Seth Curry back. So I was excited for that. I love seeing the hope for Dante Exum that like he's been so nasty recently. Shout out to Danny Chow.

Danny, he's on Exum Island by himself with Justin Rice. Give me the over, which, you know, I wouldn't want to do with Kyrie, but I just think it's a low number for what a great Luka year he is. Can you put that in pencil until I'm done with my Dallas part? Because I might bring you back. Okay. What do you have, House?

I also prefer the over. Okay. Because of the esteem that I heap on Luka. Okay. Kyrie has not had a normal NBA season since 2017. No, it's true. What were we doing in 2017, Russillo? What were we doing around April 2017?

Were you with Van Pelt at that point? No. You have your own show? No, I think Canel just got laid off and I was in Manhattan beach looking for a house and they were like, you're not being laid off. Can you please come back? Okay.

That was actually exactly. How about you? What was going on in 2017 for you? I feel like I was trying to, in April, I probably was trying to figure out who could pay for me to go to the masters. That seems like what I would, that's every year. Yeah. All right.

2017 for us, I think it was like year two of the ringer. I just, he's played 290 games in the last six years. Is that low? Yeah. He's played 22 playoff games since the 2017 finals. And every year he figures out a reason to be unhappy about something or to go sideways on something. And I just can't get out of my head that he's going to try to force himself to the Lakers in January, February. They have all these assets that are ready. They're ready to trade. They did that

Russell contract specifically to trade it. And if anything about the situation is unhappy and he thinks he has another place to go. We've seen what he does and I just don't trust it. And I don't really think he even necessarily wanted to resign with Dallas. I just think he did. Now he's probably going to, somebody will cut this clip and put it on his Twitter timeline and then he'll tweet at it with like some weird emoji. That'd be pretty cool though. I'm just saying this is a six year track record of when was the last time you had a normal NBA season? Six years. This is, would be year seven. So I'm, I'm going under. I just don't trust them. If you're, if you're the second best player on the

team and your name's Kyrie and, um, I don't really love the rest of the team. They're, they're relying on two rookies. Like, Lively's going to play. Like, the Duke fans weren't even happy about Lively. This was a year ago. It was in college. Prosper, they're going to need to play. Josh Green, who had some moments, but was buried by the end of last year.

And then Grant was getting DMPs on Boston. So on paper, I get it. It's like, oh, I got this. But I don't really trust any of those guys. I don't trust Jaden Hardy. Seth is probably the most reliable third guy on the team. I like Grant. I like Josh Green way more than

Jaden Hardy. But they buried him last year. Remember that Josh Green fell out of the rotation by the end of the year. I like Josh Green too. Powell, how many at-bats can he get? I like him as a backup in this spot, but to Lively being the starter... It's crazy.

God, everybody likes Lively more after he left Duke. I feel like that's like one of those NFL college football disconnects where one group can't believe the way the other group is talking about a player. And in this case, I didn't love Lively's draft stuff at all. There's times you didn't even know

he was right next to the rim. Right. It's one clip I have of him. Also, rookie centers. Oh, I'm sorry. No, I don't don't look i just feel like luca coming in a little pissed off knowing how disappointing last year was like luca is good enough to get you to 45 wins so that's my view as well and and to your point everything that you laid out about kairi misbehaving this upcoming season could be true and and they can still win games. It's better for him to play well and try and force what he wants.

I just think that's been, I think, top three most dysfunctional NBA organization for the last 10 years. Like, not the last five, for the last 10. They've had the most weird shit and just hard stuff to figure out, the most kind of zags and trades, and they lucked into the Luka trade, but I just don't see any cohesiveness with anything about them, and I don't trust Kyrie.

So if I'm wrong on this, so be it, but I just couldn't risk kicking myself. I'd be like, God damn it. I got sucked in. It's just such a low bar. I'm not doing it. 44 wins. But here's the thing.

I'm with you normally. I'm Luka's so good, it's a guaranteed 45 thing. I'm with you normally. I'm Lucas so good. It's a guaranteed 45 wins. But the league is awesome. There's so many great players now. I don't know if you can just write that. To me, it's Jokic and Giannis

are the only two now that you can say that's 50 wins behind. We've seen Curry miss the playoffs. We saw Luca miss the playoffs last year. So I'm out. All right. So I'm under.

You guys are both over. We've had some good disagreements this year. When are we on the clock with Luka for you, Rosillo? What if they start out 24 and 26? Yeah. Look, I think the Harden thing that you brought up is interesting because it was kind of like in the beginning, you're like, oh my God, this is amazing.

You know, look at the numbers. And those two series that he had against the Clippers are like all-time things. You don't have to look at the numbers. You're just watching the games. You're like, this guy is on another level. The battle he was having with Kawhi there. But when somebody needs the ball this much, you do wonder, like I always wonder, with the high usage rate guy at the top.

And it's worked for other teams. But a lot of times you're like, okay, the best option is him having the ball and making the decision every single possession but is that actually the best option once you get into the playoffs and it really comes down to like what that person wants where you know it's just not my favorite despite how impressive he can be and how great the numbers are so i don't see a lot of evidence of those two being able to play together either and not so defensively i just have a lot of questions about this team five and eleven that didn't like 5-11? No.

That didn't grab your attention? I like when Kyrie tells the other guy how smart he is. When he's like, hey, if you were smarter you would have understood that I was doing this. Well,

we've officially arrived at the single hardest team for the over-under. Should we take one more break, Kyle, or no? Let's take one more break. It's time. The hardest of the 30 teams, the New Orleans Pelicans.

There's a giant ceiling for this team. There's a massive floor with this team. The over-under is 44 and a half plus 210 for this division if you think they can beat Memphis and Dallas 42 to one for the title, they're minus 132 for the playoffs, which to me is stunning to me that they have minus odds for the playoffs. They've already had some injury stuff. Trey Murphy had a meniscus thing. He's out for at least the first two months of the season. We've seen with meniscuses, they're always take a little bit longer than people say. Nance has some stuff going on.

Alvarado's had some stuff going on and that was basically, you know, their depth. Naji. Ingram's coming off a really, really, really weird Team USA experience where they basically scratched him for the last two games

and the deal, yeah, he's got a virus. We haven't seen Ingram and Zion play enough together to even really know what that is. It's a team where I like a lot of the assets, but it's like, remember that

show, The Offer? I was like, I like a lot of the people on the show, and I really like The Godfather, but the show's not totally working for me. That's the Pelicans to me. That guy was so good as Robert Evans. He was great. Matthew Good?

Yeah, Matthew Good. He's killing it. Yeah, I ended up reading the biography after that show. I wanted to know more about him. I was like, how can anybody become that interesting house? Anyway, give me the over. Fuck it. Wow.

Dang. The thing is, I knew that was going to happen. Yeah. It's great. We're due. I knew that was going to happen. Yeah. It's great. We're due. We're due. We're due. We're due for one season of Zion.

I believe in it. He is the, this is the broke back. I can't quit you. I can't quit you, Zion. I can't quit you. You just can't quit him. When he was point forward for that 25 games, it was the most exhilarated I've ever seen

Russilla by a professional. I was losing my mind because mind because like he didn't even know what he was doing and then i would see him learning like oh this is what they're doing to me defensively and then he'd figure this out and he's a good passer on these drives i was like okay i'm in because yes at one point last year i thought this was the most talented one through nine one through ten in the entire nba and if you're giving me just any chance of good luck, right? Because we haven't had a lot of it down there. Give me the chance of good luck over 44 and a half. I'm going to lock it in.

Oh, okay. I know we're not doing that yet. We're not doing that yet. But okay, what do you have, Wes? That's the only one. You know this about me. I am nothing if not a petty gambler, which is to say, if i invest in you yeah go super

hard and you start to they had the top record in the west this is the italian in house it really is and the whole thing completely collapses falls apart and i lose all that money i'm sorry those under under motherfuckers. Under. Under. It's not, I'm not, you know, there's too much bullshit going on all the time. You went through just a small bit of the injury stuff, but I'm not gambling on Brandon Ingram and Zion. Not doing it.

So, F-T-M. So, their last six seasons was 33 wins, 30, 31, 36, 42 last five seasons. New Orleans has had two playoff series wins in 20 years. They've had one low one 50 win season. They've won two lotteries. They have more lottery wins than 50 win seasons. And then if you tie in the history of the New Orleans Jazz, it's just something about basketball in this city has not worked. And even when it seems like it should be working, like last year, it's this 20-game window,

and we're going, holy shit, are they going to be the one seed? I remember we might have even done a podcast right around then, Rosillo. They were 23 and 12. Yeah. We were like, man, look at all these teams juggling. Like that one seed race, the first few months of the season in the West was awesome. And we love them at this time last year.

We went through the whole thing. We threw so many flowers at their feet. I think I had Zion traded two years ago. Well, here's the big question, and this determines you over under. If it's just an in or out, are you in on Zion or out on Zion at this point? Out. I think I'm out too, but you're still in. You can't quit him.

I'm just thinking like one year he has to be healthy. So that's my play. There's not a lot of science behind it. Why? Why does that have to be? I would because I like the rest of the roster that much and i dude i think we did this two years ago because the last year we did the preview we were here two years ago we did it at your house yeah so that was like the very first and i've

been wrong with these in the past but like bringing up the idea of flirting and bringing the sales people down and bringing your marketing team in and going, look, let's get something for him that salvages it because we've tried everything with it and it doesn't work. And there's always something weird about like the college football coach who wins at a major program that guarantees you like two more good jobs. Yeah. Or like the guy that dates somebody really hot at a restaurant and then he gets dumped. And then like, there's somebody else who's sort of attractive is like, well, I guess I'll give him a shot. Yeah.

So like you want to be rewarded on the first transaction here. And I still think there's a Zion price that would make it enticing, but you'd have to get everybody on board. Cause he's, he's still their star. They have all their firsts. They have their choice between 24 or 25 Lakers first. They can do pick swaps with Milwaukee in 24 and 26. And they have the Bucs 27 first.

So if they're in the mix, the thing that scares me about going under with them is if they're in the mix at all and guys start becoming available and teams become disappointed or whatever, like they could move fast. I just don't trust it. And I would rather

bet on the past history versus the hope that Zion can turn it around. I see. The thing is, I think if everybody else is right, they could still win 45 games. Yeah. I see them right around that 44.5. I could see them winning 45, 44, 43.

It's going to be somewhere in there. Everybody's upset about the Team USA, but think how good he was towards the end last year. But is he one of those guys that he's good when he has the ball all the time, but the moment he's got to fit in

with a bigger... I was alarmed by how much he didn't fit in with Team USA. Like, alarmed. Maybe he thought it was a scrimmage. Yeah. Next one, Houston. So we have Houston and San Antonio left.

We can go a little bit fast on this, but Houston's tough because they're over under 31 and a half. They're plus 980 to make the playoffs. They were 22 and 60 last year. They had Fred VanVleet. They had Dylan Brooks. They had Thompson,

who everybody likes. They somehow had Cam Whitmore, but it doesn't seem like he's going to play that much this year. They add Rosillo's favorite, favorite guy, Jeff Green. And Shangoon is now 6'11", which nobody has investigated. I'm still trying to figure out what happened with that. A lot of assets. How so there are enough basketballs for this team?

The only one that matters is in the hands of their head coach. And your forecast for this season is a forecast of what kind of impact can E-May have. He got two of his guys. He clearly influenced

the acquisition of FVV and Dylan Brooks. He had a say in it. Over James Harden. Word. He squashed that James Harden shit. Word. He sure did. exposition of fvv and dylan brooks he had a say in it over he made it happen james harden word he squashed that james harden shit word he sure did nobody believed me on that i was saying that for months he squashed that then he tried to kind of bring it take it back a little bit he was like no it was just like we love him but it was an organization yeah it's like now you squashed it so we're talking about a 10 win improvement over last season seems like a lot but the you

know there's been some it's a it's an entirely different character of team but it might be and it might be a year take a year to get to the type we watched EMA up close for a year there and that dude is like

he holds everyone super accountable doesn't put up with bullshit, he hates bad shots, you have to play defense, he doesn't want anyone bitching, all that stuff. He will yank your ass from the court if you do one thing he doesn't like. And there's a bunch of guys on this team that are going to get yanked

off the court. And it didn't work for the first, you know, the Celtics were 500 or under 500. What were they? Until they went on the run they were under it was under yeah they were like what under 24 and 25 it's one of my favorite things about ema is the guy people come back to the bench and he's like what the fuck are you doing and i can't wait to see him do it to this team i mean granted last year's team would have had a much harder time with this when you think about jalen green and then Kevin Porter Jr. So I don't think Van Vliet and Dylan Brooks add 10 wins to your team.

This is an E-May bet. That's the argument for me. It's too many wins because I think my fear with this team is they'll head to the place that they're going to get to, but I think the first 40 games are going to be tough. And there's also multiple teams on this team. Cause there's a couple versions of five guys that I like. There's a talent level here where you go,

okay, Jalen, we still have hope for Jabari. I liked more towards the end of the year when he would initiate, he was initiating more of his own stuff, but it was just like, you could just tell what Jabari, like it kind of sucked for him. he's got this backcourt that thinks they have to have the ball in their hands every single time. And look, Zach Lowe even did this thing on Jalen Green.

But it felt a bit like the message of, can you please be this guy that Zach Lowe is hitting at in some of these? Because there's some numbers that are really good that are baked in there, and then there's some horrifying ones where it's like after pick and roll, this is the number of times that it led to an assist there because you can just see he, it was a take turns team. Yeah. And it feels like with Van Vliet,

because he's so good on and off the ball, that they were like, hey, this will sort of force our guys. Yeah. But this isn't about, Jalen Green can score 30 a game if he wants to. I mean, they can let, but that's not what this is. It's about him figuring

out how to play with some other really talented guys because there's like five or six young dudes on this team that I actually like. But usually this kind of team

doesn't like. I love their draft. I love Whitmore. I think he could be. What's your favorite asset on this team, Hast? It's Jabari for me. It's Jabari for me as well.

Well, because of the growth that he showed us at the end of last season. I might have Shang-Goon second. Yeah, I would. The fact that he grew was just astounding to me. He's probably the most fun. I mean, look, Jalen Green has some possessions where you're like, I mean, it's funny because- I think I'd have him third.

I think I was back home and they were playing Bostonoston yeah and i was like yeah i know he puts up some numbers but he's like a little shit and jalen green looked like fucking jordan in his second year i mean he was absurd so i hope it works out for him but i mean that's kind of the thing like if you're a rockets fan you need to see some of, it's not just a numbers thing with him, because a lot of guys just have bigger numbers. Well, don't you feel like we kind of have to know after this season in some way with him? It's year three.

This is a team that's going to, it's a little more professional. Jabari definitely took a step up. You could see it in Summer League. Because then the team, if it doesn't change, then you know the team is like, hey, I think we're going to kind of like pivot how we initiate some of our offense stuff. And then you're like, wait,

so I'm not the chosen one anymore? Is there anything funnier than veteran leader Dylan Brooks? Other than... Well, the China jokes are just, you know, apparently like people wanted him. Do you go under house? Oh. I hate it. Do you go under house? Oh. I hate it.

Because 31 is under, so I'm going to do under. Okay. This is a pretty easy under for me. I really wanted to do over. The West is too good. 32 wins is a lot. It is too good. You know.

But we talked about a bunch of teams with good coaches, and this team has a really good coach. And then there's some teams we've talked about so far where it's going to be right. I'm telling you, it's going to be rocky. They're not going to be psyched about it in the beginning. He is going to be really hard on them. Okay. Okay.

I like that. This is going to be the movie where the substitute superintendent comes in and is just super mean to everyone in the school for the first half of the movie. First practice, no ball. Last team, San Antonio. Just as an aside, I went to one travel team and my dad was like, what did you guys do? He's like, oh, we didn't, they didn't let us use a ball. He's like, you're not on this team anymore. He always thought that was like the worst thing just because first practice should just be let's scrimmage. I want to see how you guys were asking. That'd

be the best way to tell who sucks and who doesn't it's always a good let's have no ball and see what your closeouts are like in the corner for an hour San Antonio

28 and a half last year 22 and 60 they added a guy by the name of Victor Remedyama do it do it well so for them to hit this over he isn't you're not gonna are you Yama. Do it. Do it.

Well, so for them to hit this over. He isn't. You're not going to, are you? For them to hit this over, he's got to play 70 games. Right? The all-time we don't have to do anything team. I don't see how he plays 70 games. That's the problem. If you gave me 70 games of him,

I could talk myself into like 29 and 41 in those 70 games because he's so good. But I just don't think, I don't think they see the season this way. I think that's why they didn't go after Austin Reeves. I think that's why they did some, we'll take your bad contract trades. And I think this was a throwaway season for them. Even though everyone says the draft's not that good this next draft, right, Rasal? Yeah, these next two are supposedly. I mean, you know, there's a couple Ignite guys. There's a guy from Perth.

You know, there's not. But, you know, this shit changes really quick. Like, I always think it's funny when front offices are like, oh, the draft in 19 months sucks. And it's like, we're all going to be in Chicago and you're going to be telling me how great it is one through six. There's always somebody that pops up. Yeah. I mean, it's 18-year-olds too.

Like, hey, guess what? Some get better. One of the things I don't like about this over-under is you have to hit 29. I can't see any scenario where they win like 35. So now you're giving me this like five win window house, but then you give me all the upside of under the 28 and a half where if they, you know, Wemby gets hurt for two weeks and they, all of a sudden they go

on a losing streak or they just yank them or they rest them, whatever they have to do. It's a regretful under to me, but I did stare at it for a while, especially because Vassell didn't really play last year. I think he played 30, 35 games. So getting him for a full year with Wemby, I don't know. It seems like you're not.

It's an easy under for me. This is, I think they're going to have. It makes you sad though. I feel sadness in your face. No, no, they're building. They're like, if you look at the talent of San Antonio

and put it side by side to Houston, Houston was a much bigger challenge for me. I think that Houston situation, I hate going under on Houston. San Antonio's building, and it doesn't make sense for them to rush this kid. They're not going to. They're smart. They'll take their time.

They'll get the right players. They'll learn about what kind of NBA player he's going to be. Right, how to use them. Yeah, yeah. So they're not in a hurry. He's going to be the most viral NBA player we've had since we've had this whole infrastructure. I think that's the only thing that's guaranteed.

We thought it might happen with Zion, and Zion had some injuries and some stuff, and it didn't happen with him. But just from the little stuff we've seen in the preseason, there's never been anything like this. My son is the most excited about him as he's been about any basketball player since he got on social media

and I just think he's going to be a thing over and over again and a really fun wrinkle it's one of those if he's on TV I'm probably going to watch it's like a fourth quarter and it's kind of close

I want to see what happens here so you're under Rosillo? I am they're just not very deep either. Like this isn't, despite some of the picks, some of the later picks I haven't loved, and I just don't see why they'd be playing him. You know, I just am always going to be scared

of the big guys that don't move like big guys, and that's the beauty of him as a player. But I mean, I think it'd be weirder if he didn't get hurt one of his first three or four years. Yeah. There's the injury potential with him. Knock on wood,

but it is under. All right, here we go. Here's what we had. Denver. All of us were over 52 and a half. Minnesota. Minnesota.

Me and house were over 45 and a half. Ursula was under Oklahoma city. I'm over. Ursula is over 45 and a half. Rosillo was under. Oklahoma City, I'm over. Rosillo's over 45 and a half as well. House, under. You'll regret that one, House. Utah, 35 and a half. I went over.

Rosillo went under. House went over. Portland, 27 and a half. All of us under. Memphis, 45 and a half. I went under. You guys both went over. We had a lot of disagreements for these first 10. Yeah, fuck you. Dallas, 43 and a half I went under you guys both went over we had a lot of disagreements for these first 10

yeah fuck you Dallas 43 and a half I went under you guys went over you'll regret that New Orleans 44 and a half

me under house under Priscilla over Houston 31 and a half we're all under and San Antonio 28 and a half

we're all under that is it for part one Cerruti what was your favorite over under probably Priscilla's San Antonio 28 and a half. We're all under. That is it for part one. Cerruti, what was your favorite over under? Probably Rochella's blind love of the Pelicans. But you knew it was coming. Yeah, of course. I mean, come on. I'm with you.

I want it to be right. I just don't think about it. So, sorry, dude. All right. This was produced by Steve Cerruti, Kyle Creighton. Stay tuned for part two and part three. We will be doing the other 20 teams. Thanks for listening. On the wayside, I'm a person never lost.

I don't have to be. Must be 21 plus in president select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. You can call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-800-9WITH-IT in Indiana. 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana.

mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. 1-800-GAMBLER.NET in West Virginia or 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York.