The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West With Zach Lowe and Joe House

Episode Date: October 15, 2025

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach and Joe House for Part 1 of the annual Over/Unders pod, as they run through the win totals for every team in the Western Conference! Thunder (00:00) Nuggets (00:00) Timberwolves (00:00) Trail Blazers (00:00) Jazz (00:00) Rockets (00:00) Spurs (00:00) Mavericks (00:00) Grizzlies (00:00) Pelicans (00:00) Clippers (00:00) Lakers (00:00) Warriors (00:00) Kings (00:00) Suns (00:00) Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House Producers: Chris Wohlers, Ronak Nair, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chia Hao Tat The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit⁠⁠ www.rg-help.com⁠⁠ to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Fandall has them. Any place where you bet, but we love Fandle. Win totals for the season for each team. And we go over or we go under and we talk about every team. And we have some laughs. We have some fun, and it's about to happen. We're going to take a break. Pearl Jam, and then the West Over Under's is next. This is the Bill Simmons podcast presented by Fandul. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. Fandle is the place to do it.

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slash chat in Connecticut. All right, the time is here, NBA over unders. Joe House is here. We first did this on the BS report on ESPN in 2010. Wow. Yeah. 15 years. Yeah.

Somebody on YouTube has all the old BS report podcast. 2010 so that would make it I'm bad at math 15 this is our 50 if we're inclusive it's 16 so it's our 16 this is why we have Zach Lowe Zach Lois here never has been on the over under's pod in fact you and Joe House have never done a podcast is that true we're doing it amazing yeah yeah I have one one goal I told Zach already I want him to say something bad about somebody that's my goal for this podcast to get Zach Lowe to say something bad about something I don't know Zach looks tan rested I don't know But yeah, I'm ready to roll. I'm excited.

Dare I say, one of the most fun over under seasons we've ever had. There's so much flux. There's so many teams you could make a case for either way, just being either way better than people think or way worse. And yet, we're going to start with the West. This is part one. And we're going to start with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who won the title last year, Zach,

and are somehow not that exciting to talk about. I just think they're going to be awesome again. And I don't really have a lot of thundercakes. Like, why wouldn't they be awesome again? What would be the case against it? Well, they're going to be awesome. There's no question about that. They have some injuries, Jalen Williams.

How quickly is he going to be ready to start the season? Good Jalen Williams. Topich had some kind of surgery. Kenrich Williams. It wasn't some kind of surgery. I don't want to get to the testicular. I don't want to get into the details. Did you research the testicular topich surgery?

I did not. I felt like it was okay. I did not either. I just saw the timetable. But there's no question they're going to be awesome. They're the favorites to win the touch. The question is 62 and a half. It's a pretty giant number. 62 and a half wins, house, minus 340 for the division, plus 130 for the conference, and plus 210 for the title.

Minus 210 for the one seed on Fandoah, if you're interested in that one. House, only 11 teams, I think in the last 30 years or something, have been over 60 wins for an over under. and I think it's 8 and 3 where it's been under. Most recently was the Warriors of 2019. We were dumbfounded by this last night. Over under, 67 and a half for them. That was the year Durant got hurt. But did you think this was too high?

It's just a tad too high. And it's just because of the math aspect of it. It's what you just described. We know what history tells us about teams that come in having won the title. Every team in the league circles that game. I'm like, hey, Oklahoma City's in town. Let's give a good effort here. Let's see how we match up against the champs.

And so I don't feel like it's disrespectful to say that they win 61 or 62 games. It's still an awesome season. They're still an awesome team. They should be the one C. They should win the conference. But I am not going to bite down too hard on this one. They would have to go six wins worse to go under because they were 68 and 14. last year.

They had a plus 12.7. Or plus 12.7 net last year. So best did the history of the NBA. I don't know why that would be considerably worse. I just don't see how they're not a mid-60s team unless there's some sort of major injury. But we could say that about any good team. Their expected wins last year were 69, according to cleaning the glass. So you have to like do the thing where it's like, how many did you win?

Were you lucky? Were you unlucky? They're like flat out basically a 70 win team. We'll be talking about that during the last year. the Detroit section in part two. Wow, just flashing all the way ahead to... Wow, just, you know, 46 wins, but was it?

Is this the part where I say what I think is going to happen? Like, you have the cadence for this over-under thing. You know, you're going under, it sounds like. Let me set you up. Okay. In 2002, they won 24. In 2022, they won 40. In 2024, 57, and in 2025, 68. So if you

do the math, they're going to win 77 games at show by those. So there was 77 and 5 is how it's going to go. I'm going over. What are you doing? I'm going aggressively over. Oh, aggressively over. I didn't even know that was an option.

I just thought we were doing overs. Aggressively over. I just think they're so good and so deep, and their defense is so much better than everybody else's, that they just, like, how many games are they going to be underdogs in the entire year? Like on the road against Denver? Well, the other thing is they can sit dudes and it doesn't matter. It's like, oh, we'll just put this guy in instead.

It'll be fine. And they seem like the kind of team. But first of all, they won 68 with Chet missing half the season, Hartstein missing almost half the season. Maybe they suffered some other injuries this year. I just think they walk into every game with the defense. It's like we can play a shitty offensive game and still win. And the floor is so high.

And they do strike me as a team that is going to like what you said. Like, oh, you're going to give us your best shot. Come at us. young. We're not this old, creaky champion. Actually, we kind of like being the hunted. We like kicking the shit out of everybody on defense. We want history. Like, I think it's, I think 70 wins is in play if they're healthy. So the case for this house would be the 1992 Bulls, who went 67 and 50 in the year after they won the title. We're young like this team, had guys that were still ascending, had Pippin going up a level, which you can make the case, maybe Jalen

Williams or Chet or both this year. Chet, big time. And I'm with you. I actually think, I think they have a chance to be better. And the reason I mention this is you can bet on this house if you think the OKC Thunder can win 70 games. What do you think the odds are in Fandle? Probably not great.

You know what I mean? Like probably three to one, something like that. I was going to go longer than that. How about plus 680? Oh, wow. Not that you have my attention. I was going to like those. I was going to say, I was going to offer.

12 to 1 or something like that. Could they win 70 games? Yeah. Has not happened a lot. I think the plus 680, I thought was high. Out of all the bets that we've talked about so far, that's the one that's got my attention. Oddwise. So are you over or under?

I'm over now. Wow, just like that. No, he just had to be talked into it. Because 63 is still over. And that's five a person last year. I was stunned by how little I thought about a number this big. It was like over. what do I feel

bad if they win 61 games I still feel good 60 games are still awesome I'm going over yeah 63 one other thing with these guys some assets to trade if they wanted to get frisky right they have uh all the draft picks which aren't quite as good as they felt like they were three years ago they're still alright they have like some

some philly stuff they have some utah stuff that's protected they have some swap stuff with the clippers in houston they have some Denver picks that I'm not too excited about because they have Yokage. They have a 2028 swap with Dallas that was way more exciting before Dallas with 1.8% odds won the Cooper flag lottery. Let's not talk about that. But they have stuff they can just be like, here's four first.

We want to upgrade this spot and do it. I wanted to do one question for each team beyond just the over-under. Is SGA the most untradable guy in the league for you right now? How many people would you put over him? We're doing trade value rankings because I had him three when I did my list. in January. I had yokeage ahead of him and I had Wembe. SGA is going to be 20.

He's 27 years old. He is MVP finals MVP. He's 31, 6, and 5 the last three seasons. And I wrote down he's like independent movie Kobe basically. He's Kobe, but it's a lower budget with the director who did for scale and got a bunch of actors and they made it for $2 million and took it right to Cann. Yeah. He's not a blockbuster.

Like, he even Shea did this GQ interview, like cover story and had quotes it in. And it's like, whoa, Shay being interviewed. Like, he's just like, we don't know anything about him. And I think he likes it that way. No, I mean, look, I'm, it's tempting to say Shea, Wembe, and Yokic are completely untradable. And yet we are eight months removed from Luka Dantzich getting traded like inexplicably to the Lakers. But I think the, I think it's just Wembe. Like, if you're going to rank them all, I think Wembe has to be the number one most untradable.

Would you put him over Yokic house? Wow, that's great. I think he's so young. Yokage versus Shea is a really good argument now because Yokic is now in his 30s, right? So you're getting basically three extra apex years from Shay. Although maybe with the way Yokic moves, he could just play until he's 55.

It's possible. His body looks like he's going to be able to withstand it. I still have Joker and Wembe over him. Wembe won Joker, too. I think Wembe's one now, especially after the preseason game we watch. It was like, I think maybe is now our number one. Okay, we're all over for OKC.

Next one, ironically, the Denver Nuggets. They're over under is 53 and a half. They are plus 470 for the conference, plus 750 for the title, 6 to 1 to be our one seed. And unlike OKC, which basically returned the same team, they dumped Porter and Sarich and Russell Westbrook. Good joke on the internets this week about Russell Westbrook might change his name

and Tedocumpo to see if he can get signed by a team. Mean, funny. It really checked all my boxes. It's mean to everybody. It's mean to everybody. Everybody's insulted.

Multiple people get insulted with that joke. They added Cam Johnson, huge fan. Bruce Brown, who really peaked with those guys and then was a drift for a couple years. Now back,

Jonas Valenschunis, who is a weird agent situation over the summer. I'm unclear if he wanted to put at Denver or not, but he's there. And then Tim, Hardaway, Jr., plus Holmes is coming back.

This is the deepest bench they've ever had. Zach, this is the best Nuggets team. I think Yokic has ever had. Is that fair to say? It's in play. It could be the best regular season team they've ever had, for sure. What would be another one for you? But you're the one, the title would be, you know, with Bruce Brown and KCP and other guys

who Jeff Green was still like a viable player. Yeah, so they went seven deep that year? Probably a little deeper than that. I'm probably a little deeper than that. Yeah, this is on, this is on par or better than that as a regular season team. I just, I'm, we'll see how the young guys develop. Like, I've always liked Strother, but it's never really happened. I like Peyton Watson.

Can you make enough threes? If, like, some of the bench young guys hit, like, Pickett is interesting. It's sort of like an Andre Miller clone, but not nearly as good, but like the big, bulky point guard guy. Interesting, like, it's interesting to watch somebody try to walk across. traffic interesting or interesting one of these young guys is going to pop a little bit

at some point how much is Bruce Brown like how much of the Bruce Brown slump was just like I miss I just am long in for Yokic I miss Yokic I made a mistake

or I didn't make a mistake I got paid but but yeah it's on the table this is the deepest and best regular season Nuggets team what I like about this team house they can bring in dudes

that aren't as good as their starters but can replicate a lot of stuff that those guys Like when Balanchunas comes in, you can kind of run offense through him for five minutes. You had him in Washington. Bruce Brown comes in. He can kind of pretend to be Aaron Gordon for a couple of minutes. Hardaway can come in.

He can kind of pretend to be Cam Johnson for a couple of minutes. The issue I had within the last couple years is the guys they were bringing in the bench. It's almost like an NFL team where it's like, here's Lamar Jackson's backup, a guy who's a completely different quarterback than him. And it's like, why don't you just have a running quarterback? Anyway, what do you think of the Nuggets? I absolutely adore them. I'm so happy for the Joker to have this cast at this moment after what we all saw the last couple years,

them being quality-wise as good as any team in the league, them being able to stand up in a series to any team in the league, and then they just get to that threshold moment, and they just didn't have the depth. They didn't have the depth against Minnesota. And still almost won. That's right. Yes, this is the thing.

So I absolutely, this, we've been clamoring for this for how long now, years, right? You know who else was clamoring for it? Mike Effing Malone, who gets to watch it on television this season. Yeah. Because him and Calvin Booth couldn't get on the same page, right, Zach? Yeah, so they cleared out the cloud of dysfunction, those hanging over the organization. David Adelman is the new coach. Everyone seems to like him.

He's doing creative stuff in the preseason. They're playing zone. They're playing the centers together. Some people are calling him Dave. Is that on the table? Dave. See, he's like, he's David Adelman, but now they're so comfortable with them, but there's a couple days. He's Dave to me.

He's doing the opposite of-David-Adam. Malone, who went from Mike Malone to Michael Malone. He's going long to shore. It's a culture shift. Dave Adelman. It's all across the board for Denver. Maybe like one or two Davies. You can't go Davey.

Davey, quick question, Davey on the zone defense you're in the third quarter. Were you on a side in the cloud of dysfunction or were you just? I was on the side of like, I can't believe you to. I can't believe it got this bad. The team is good. They won a title. How does it get this bad? Why did it get this bad?

Valenciudis is interesting because he's become a journeyman now. He's been all over the Western Conference and a little bit in Washington, Toronto, obviously. And I just think like when Yokic would go out of games, they would have just no identity. It was like if Jamal Murray doesn't make crazy step back 20 footers, we're just not going to score. You were holding on for your life for five minutes. is at least like, I can dump it to him in the post and kill time and feel like I'm not just desperately grasping at straws to score points. I was blown away by the short stint that he enjoyed in Washington. I loved him. Well, I got lucky enough to sit low enough at a couple games in

Washington. Tickets were available. And you could hear him talking. And the leadership role that he played with those kids, that dude just knows how to play effing basketball. He gets to the right spot. He knows where everybody's supposed to be. He tells him, go, go, move, whatever. And he is a big boy. That's a big boy right there. Well, also, like, what fun situation has he been in? He was on that weird

New Orleans team. He was on Washington. He was in Sacramento. Like, this is, like, the perfect team for him. Just come in. We'll run everything through you for six minutes a half. And then if Yokic gets in foul trouble, we actually have an option of a professional basketball. Can I just state some, some

dings to the day? I'm excited for skeptics, Zach on the 53 and a half. No, you have the 53 and a half is a little high for Zach. The Aaron Gordon leg stuff seems to come and go. Looks good in the preseason. Cam Johnson's missed a lot of games over the last couple of years. Yeah, I wouldn't say he's

Cal Ripkin Jr. I think their rebounding will take a little bit of a hit without MPJ. That was like one of the things he did consistently pretty well for them. Jamal Murray, all the camp reports are very exciting. He's in better condition and mentality than you always starts slow, right?

That's one of the reasons the nuggets tend to not blow away their win total over under. So those are like the dings, I think. Like do these bench veterans whose names sound good? Like Bruce Brown, he did stuff for Denver. Tim Hardaway Jr. Do they actually help the team or is their name recognition alowing their value? And just like win totals from the last, you know, X Denver seasons, 46, 47, 48, 53, 57, 50. they just don't have a track record

as like a blow away regular season team playoffs different story absolutely terrifying with the best player on the planet and a team that makes sense regular season they're not like blowing you away the 57 would be the doppelganger

I think for this season for me the last year the Murray thing was so weird those first six weeks house I have a question for you because you've shared season tickets with people before I have and when you share season tickets with people with people, you do a draft

where you send your list and like, here's my 20 and then you do like somebody gets first pick and you get it. If I was doing this with my season tickets, Denver would be my first pick. Oh, wow. I would want to see them over every other team in the league. Would they be your first pick? No, because I need

to see Wemby. I haven't seen Wemby yet in person. I need to see Wemby. So that would have been my second pick. Yeah. What would be your first pick? Look, fortunately for you, you can go to MSGC any game you want, but would Denver? Or the Barclay Center just You just, you're not even considering that. I just thought they had WMBA games.

They have an NBA team? Wow. What's it called? Poor Jordy. It has the worst team name in the NBA, the Nets. I thought that was where the Liberty played. In any case. And they have pizza.

I think, I think Wembe is now ascended to like, I got to see this guy again and again. But to your point, Yokic, like, you know, I go to Toronto every year for the holidays where my wife's parents live. The Raptors have a murder's row schedule right after Christmas, including Denver at Toronto, unlike New Year's Eve. And I've told my wife and my family, like, A, we're staying through New Year's Eve, so I'm going to that game,

and B, we're going to all go to the game together because you need to watch this dude play in person and just ravage the poor Raptors. So it's still a hot ticket. Can I make the Joker case? Go ahead. You're doing this draft in September. Yokoj is playing probably 90s.

37% certainty when he's in your town. I got a story. Wemby, I have no idea. We're a knock on wood. Joker plays. Joker's out there

and you know you're going to see him and especially if it's a bigger city, he shows up. Unlike, say, a Joel Embed in Denver. If you're doing the season ticket draft, you live in Denver, Embed goes 30th because he hasn't played in Denver in a decade.

I would have Joker first, Wemby, second. Can I tell you a heartbreaker for me? So I got laid off from ESPN last year. What did that happen? Zach Lowe? You still work there. Organized my wife.

Big mistake on my wife's part. It was like when I got home from L.A., she was like, you know what, Zach? Carp launch. Take whatever trips you want to clear your head. And she said it in front of a dad friend of mine. Yeah. So the planning began like, oh, carte blanche. Seven dads from Connecticut descend on the deep south for a week, starting in New Orleans,

built around Nuggets, Pelicans. Yeah. Because I'm like, I'm telling you guys, this is like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy. We had great seats. Like, this is a religious experience to watch this guy in person. Here was the Nuggets starting lineup that night. Dario Sarich, Michael Porter Jr., Peyton Watson, Jamal Murray, Christian Brown. Hunter Tyson got in the game.

Yokic, Yokich's wife gave birth. Oh. That seat has to be like a crazy event like that. Heartbreaker. You didn't do anything wrong. Heartbreaker. Found out on the. flied down,

news broke. I didn't know how to them. It's like, now you guys are like Peyton Watson's kind of funny. Like Mike Block a shot,

you know, luckily they played the Lakers the next night and LeBron hit a game winning jumper. That was a good game. Yeah. First,

legacy shift, new segment on the overrunners pot. Can't talk about legacies. Is there a star player with a bigger legacy shift brewing on a pot on the stove than Yokage this year? Because if they win the title,

and he wins MVP again. I think he's indisputably one of the best 10 players ever. I think that has to be the outcome. Because at that point, his 20-20s, I'm including, let's say he first team this year, MVP, just hypothetical. His 2020s, just this decade, four first team, two second, four MVP's, two second-place finishes,

and probably should have won one of those two. And then he would be basically a triple-double for the entire decade plus 29, 13, and 8 in 80 playoff games, whatever it's going to end up being. I just don't see how he's not on a top 10 list after that. He has to be.

I think the more interesting question is like, if they never get a second title, is he still, like his statistics are so, an individual honors are so crazy. And like no one who has watched the Nuggets for the last the years they haven't won the title

can make a case that it's Yokic's fault, like, at all. He shows up in every... It comes to Jerry West situation. Like, I had West in the top ten when I did my book. He only won one title. I didn't hold that against them because they were in there every year. But if he gets the second one, the names he's next to, like next to immediately. Not next

to like, well, three more years is next to immediately are like the holy pantheon of NBA players. He has to be with bird of magic at that point. Yeah. He's next to them. And then we can start talking about top four. You're all in agreement and, you know, it's why the fist pumps, the hazzas,

as this offseason occurred, and we saw this team finally giving the assets, creating the multiplicity in terms of they're built to withstand a little bit of time off for Gordon. They're built to withstand a little time off for Murray. They're built to, even if Joker wants a little break, I'm okay with JV getting some starter minutes there over the course of this long regular season. The answer is, hell yes. I do wonder, I do want to have this legacy shift conversation.

I have a guy in mind. We save it for when we get to that team. If you want to hit your legacy shift button, just pound it. Pound it. Okay. Well, I'm sitting on mine for now. I had one other thing on Yokage because I thought of this when I was doing the research. And it's not 100% fair because it's a decades thing.

So somebody could peak starting in the middle of a decade and then to like the first two years of the next decade. So you can't say whatever. The 60s were owned by Russell. The 70s were owned by Kareem. Like, those were indisputable. 80s were Bird of Magic together. 90s were Jordan. 2000s were Duncan and Kobe together.

The 2010s were LeBron and Curry together. The 20s are just Joker right now. I don't think we have 26, 27, 28, 29. So we have four years. Where do you stand on what is decade in for the 20s? Does it have to be the 30 season or the 29 season? That's where it gets super confusing for me. I have not put a lot of thought until when I end.

It's really, it's your call. But who would you even have in the running for the 2020s other than Joker? If we're like, what were the 2020s who owned that decade? It's Joker right now convincingly. Kauai, just for being in the news all the time. But I mean, in the 2020s, they haven't. No, I'm just kidding. Shea, maybe.

Oh, I just got your aspiration joke five seconds later. By the way, we're in the aspiration dome. Janus. Yeah, but they just gave to say, John is the only other one. Janice, who hasn't made the I understand. I've got five years to play with.

We do. Yeah. 25, 26, 27, 28. Well, so the guy who can take it over the rest of the decade is Shea. Sure. A couple more titles with the resume. He's the only one, I think that's in the... You're just dismissing Jason Tatum.

You've already got him coming back in, you know, February, Celtics, you know. I mean, that's maybe another candidate, Jason Tatum. I'm over for the Nuggets at 15. 53 and a half house. I am super over. This is a lock. Put it in my book right now. House lock, Denver, over for all the reasons.

I'm not going to announce my locks until at the end of the pot. But you can do whatever you want. You can hit the legacy button whenever you want. Nuggets over is a lock for me. Are you over, Zach? This is one of the ones I struggle with the most. There's like three that I went back and forth on. I'm going under on 53 and a half.

based on their history is sort of a regular season good but not great team and I can't go over on everyone in the West right like I've got to have some unders and so I'm going slightly under like 51 and 31

52 and 30 prepared to be very wrong I'm just gonna I just gotta go under on someone I'm going under on them playoff different story I'm not I don't want any part of these dudes in a playoff series I think they would be the number two seed in the West

and I'll go for there. But I'm going under. I would like to go on the record and say, because the season's about to start, that I think it's OKC, Denver, and then we drop. That's the finals. I think those are the two best teams. Western Conference final is OKC. Look, who knows what changes, right? Injures and everything.

Of course, of course. And if you're just talking about a ceiling of a team that could potentially join that nightclub, maybe Cleveland, just from a talent standpoint and the fact that they won 64 last year, but I don't feel as certain at that. Honestly, I mentioned this. on my pie yesterday. Like, one of the fascinating,

like I rarely start thinking about seatings until we're 60 games into the season. Everyone in the West has to be rooting for some scenario where Denver falls to four and has to play Oklahoma City in the second round where you don't have to go through both of them

because they're so clearly to me in a tier hovering above everybody else. Would you see that GM survey? They said, which I thought was really interesting, but they had the home court advantage question in Denver and OK. Okay, see, we're basically, like, had 95% of the votes or 90% of the votes or something. I was like, yeah, that's fair.

But that's a good point because that's another incentive for Denver to get that, too. Yeah. Be motivated to win 55. I'm still staying under. It's fine. I got to be under on somebody. Can't hold that against you. Emails from Denver.

Message board, things from Denver. Tweet replies from Denver. Fuck you, Zach. Did Denver fans? He went under you, motherfucker. I was so early on Yokic that, yeah, I have a lifetime of five. Yeah, that's fair. With the Denver fans.

Nuggets Capital. Minnesota's over, 49 and a half, one of the toughest ones. They were 49 and 33 last year. They are 10 to 1 to win the division and the conference, 17 to 1 for the title. And they have the seventh best finals odds. Zach, why don't the sports books respect this team? What is Minnesota missing? What did they do to antagonize?

Okay, we're going to go this way. All right. 49 wins last year, you said, like, that's not a lot of ways. wins that's under their current number, lost a critical bench player and Alexander Walker have to replace him mostly with young guys. When does the Mike Conley thing

just fall apart completely to the point that they have to start Devinchenzo? That would be my number one. And there's a trickle-down effect there. That would be the case for the line being this low. Counter-house? Well, the crazy thing is they got to 49 after they started off really slow last year.

They were an under-500 team through the first 25 games. I would say unhappy. I mean, there were multiple podcasts for multiple weeks about what's going on in Minnesota. Was this, is this Randall fit like a disaster?

Right. What's happening? Those were the conversations. I mean, they made a pretty traumatic trade right before the season. It was. It was traumatic.

And it took a little bit for the chemistry experiment to work. But then we saw it work a little bit. And I think the version of what we saw in the Western Conference finals, the second consecutive Western Conference finals, that's who this team is. And there's still another level for Anthony Edwards.

There's still another level for that dude. So I am in the same place as Zach is sort of puzzled by the number being flat. And I'm not sure what informs that. I think it's anticipating the market being out on Minnesota, not because this number hasn't moved. It's been a hard 49 and a half. I mean, them having worse finals odds than the Lakers is pure lunacy. And I just don't understand it. They were top five net last year.

They have a top 10 player. They still have a top five defense. And one thing that I used last year that helped me a little bit, I leaned out at more this year is the records and the numbers for the last 30 games of the season. And Minnesota was 20 and 10 in the last 30 games. There's plus 7.3 with basically the team they have. And the only piece that's an X factor is Alexander Walker

who's getting those minutes other than Conley. But they have young guys that they can. can throw in those Alexander Walker minutes and maybe get lucky. Plus, they'll have a full defense inzo year. And Conley's like Horford. Like, I'm just not ruling him out anymore until we see that he's just completely washed up.

I'm over. I just think, I think you make a case this is like the fourth or fifth best team in the league. So at that point, you have to be 50 wins and over. So I am an over, yet again, three overs in a row for me. Dillingham, Shannon. I like Jalen Clark.

I think they can eat up to Alexander Walker minutes well enough with Ant ascending. Randall feeling more comfortable. Gobert, just as a great floor for your defense. Okay, the other case against is they got 82 games out of McDaniels last year, 82 Alexander Walker, 80, 99,

Edwards, 72, Gobert, 69, Randall, though it felt like he missed more time. They were very healthy last year. But, expected wins last year, 54. They shot the bed in close games. Yep. For two months, remember, they were really bad. I am going aggressively, enthusiastically over.

All right. I understand. I think this is a 15-minute team. Yeah. And I understand why Zach wouldn't want to do Denver because it puts, it would put him in the position that you and I are NBS, which is another over, over, over, over. We show up at the over-under podcast, 2025, and we're banging West overs.

But you know what? Denver's numbers, four numbers higher than Minnesota. But if we think these are three, of the five best teams in the league, it makes more sense. It's just coincidentally they're on the same division. We didn't mention Julius Randall living happily in his

post-marijuana life. No more marijuana for him. He felt like it made him distant. It slowed him down. His brain's clear. He's feeling great. Do you think that message reverberated around the NBA community and there are going to be imitators?

There was a great Durant quote where Durant was like, Yeah, I respect it, but me personally, I really like the plant. He called it the plant. I did not see that. I do want to hear from Zach. This will factor in.

We'll get to Toronto eventually. What's the Toronto situation with the plant? That's going to factor in it crucially for me. Are you asking me because you think I plan on vacations around around? I just think you're generally aware as a person that spends time in Canada every year. Is it a marijuana city? I'm unaware, but Canada generally is. Toronto is a

It's a fun place. There's a player I'm thinking of that I'm worried about. House, don't get us canceled. Come on. Just a player I'm worried about. That's all. House, are you over or under?

Over. All right, three years. Well, we spent a lot of time in those three teams. So we're going to take our first break and come back with the two crappy teams in the vision. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandul. The NBA season is coming.

Fandul is the place to let you play your game. Everything. Everything. Everything they have to get you ready for this season. We'll be talking about a lot on the podcast for not just today, but the rest of the week and next week. Cool bets, season leaders, player specials, win totals, exact team outcomes, playoff parlays. You can go nuts, even better. You can parlay your favorite bets together for an even bigger payout.

Take a flyer in the MVP race, crown your champion in October, parlay or playoff dark horses. We're going to be doing our season future boost. We're trying to figure this out there in the over or under pods. Fando is going to have it. I'll talk about it on my Thursday podcast. We'd like to put three teams together with win totals, 40 plus wins, 45 plus wins, 50 plus wins. Put them together. And we're on a win streak. We lost last year because the stupid sons, but we're going to win this year. So get ready for our boost announced

on Thursdays pod. Visit fandal.com slash BS today. And you could start planning your futures bets now. Fandle, play your game. I don't feel like we mentioned Anthony Edwards enough in the last segment, but it's fine. We have a whole year of podcast for him. We're going to go the Portland Trailblazers. The next team and whatever this Division is called Northwest. The State Farm Northwest Division. Presented by Kia. They're over under is 34.5 and they're plus

4.10 to make the playoffs. Plus 200 for the playing house. If you want to get frisky. They added Drew Holiday. They traded Anthony Simons for him. They lost DeAndre Aten. They didn't lose them. They basically they brought him to the airport like a suitcase and just left

the suitcase. They evicted him. Yeah. And they added Yang Hansen. who already feels like that was like one of the smartest marketing moves of the decade. People love him. He's selling jerseys, hats, everything. The kids love him. And he might be good.

My kid insisted on watching every summer league game with Young Hanson. The kids love I'm telling you. The kids love Young Hanson. They can see his enthusiasm out there. Yeah. He is really fun. I have no idea if it's going to translate to NBA games, but I do enjoy him. The one thing with this over under, and I was leaning more toward over,

but scoot tore his hamstring and is out. They're like one to two months. I feel like that's one of those injuries where you're not right for a while even when you come back. And Zach, that shaded me toward the under here. Okay. 36 wins last year,

so they went over this number. Expected wins, 33, fattened up at the end of the season, 23 and 18 in the last 41, which you could read either way. They found something, of, you know, the morassive. You know what they found.

House's old friend, Denny Avdia. He was fired. He was unbelievable. He was like one of the best 20 players in the league in the stretch. He's, and I think that was totally real. Like, I think that dude is a legit, like, very good player. Shaden maybe goes up a level. Grant only played 47 games last year.

Maybe 46 too many. Yeah. We both had the same joke. I'm sure you're hoping this is the year time Lord plays 80 games. He's still on the Blazers Not betting on that one I am going under on this Which surprised me

Because I felt like a Kind of a jolt of optimism About how the Blazers finished the season I'm like super intrigued by their young guys I just don't like their depth I think their offense is going to be putrid Like there's just no shooting I don't know if the centers are really ready

For this level of offensive responsibility And Klingin and Young And the West is just really really good I think Portland's going to be solid. Their defense is going to be really good. Like Kamara, Obdia, Klingin, like a rock solid defensive team. I just think they're not going to score enough to go over this number. So I'm going slight under.

This is literally the script. They can't score. And I don't want the Portland soccer bombs to get mad at me. I love this Portland team. I root for them because Denny. I root for Denny. It broke my heart when they shipped them out of Washington. I understood why I get the timeline that Washington is on.

He's too good for the Washington timeline. Yeah. And I'm glad for him to be in the situation that he's in, but I think that they are going to have a hard time scoring the basketball. And so I am doing the underplay for the Portland. I was surprised. I was over in my head all off-season. And I think here's the title that they're going to win,

because I think we all think they're going under, and I think they will. They might have a chance to be 2006's hipster NBA team. Oh, that's a good idea. Defense, there's going to be some really, good defense. Say camera. We have to say camera's name multiple times. Yeah. Damani Kamara. I said it.

Kamara. I like when you called him camera, though. I'm going to keep up. Because you had the first malpractism of the pod. You're the first mispronunciation. One of a dozen. Kamara, who I think was really the thinking man's, like that really, really, really

nerdy epicenter of basketball on the internet where people are like, look at these fucking numbers when this guy's plays. Look at the numbers of guys that he guards and how much he helped. I think I voted for him, second team defensive all defense. I didn't have a ballot, but I would have. He had a first team.

He made it. Scoot. I still have all my scoot stock feeling great about it. And then Yang Hanson, I think this will be a really fun league pass team. But there, you made the key point house. Like, no scoop for two months. We're not even positive if he's going to be like, I don't know, an efficient offensive player. But I thought, you know, Simons, Simons is intriguing.

The Celtics are like... Oh, boy. Zach, no, I was going to do this. The Celtics are like, whoa, Simons. Like, this guy's like a really gifted offensive player. Like, you can run offense for him in the last four minutes of the game. And he did that a lot for the Blazers last year. He did.

And they just pull that out. And guess what? I love Drew Holiday, but that's not Drew Holiday. And I don't have a lot of faith that he's going to get to 60, 65 games for the Blazers. They're already down one guard and scoot. It should be noted. Like, I think their incentives are all like we're trying to win this year. We're die hard trying to get into play in, chase of whatever, like,

as win as much as we can get. The heart's in the right place. However, they do a lottery protected pick to the Bulls. So, like, if things are not going great, 55 games into the C. You always have to factor those in. You always have to factor it. I don't think they care. I don't think it's going to guide their thinking.

It's just if we get to a point where we have to start thinking about them. I didn't love the Drew Holiday season last year, and I said that as somebody who loves Drew Holiday. And I thought it was alarming that he couldn't guard anyone on the Knicks because I thought a year ago he's somebody who could have guarded all of the Knicks. And in that Knicks playoff series, I was really surprised that he wasn't at that same level. I mentioned this because they're paying Drew Holiday, Jeremy Grant, and Dame Lillard, who's not going to play this year,

it combines $77 million and wait that then goes to $82 million guaranteed the year later oh wait 88 million in year three of that for those three guys and how they would be like 37 at that point

it's really bad cap management I'm just going to say it like when we have the second apron and stuff that's just a lot of money to pay for those guys I don't agree with it well Grant was the desperation trying to keep dame you know we promised you this deal kind of thing. It was the Miles Turner.

I really want to stay married. Here's a ring. Here's a new ring. I gave you a new carrot. Please don't divorce me. The Drew trade was a little ahead of their skis for me. That was like a very win now. We need an adult in the room. We need leadership. Which is like all that stuff is valuable, but it's not as valuable as a $37 million player option three seasons from now.

That's just... It was a miracle trade for the Celtics. I get Listen, I get why they did it. It's good to have adults around. It really is. That's fundamentally, like, they just felt you can just be too young, and it's nice to have a couple people. Like, even I was talking to,

I was talking to our friend Callie Curry because Seth went to Golden State, and it's like, well, what's different about Golden State than Charlotte? I don't think she'd mind me saying this. And she's like, well, they have, like, people his age on Golden State. Curry, Al Horford,

Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, like these are older players. There's something to have a couple old guys around. So I get it why Portland's like, hey,

we need a couple more experienced guys. Drew is like a beloved locker room guy. I get it. I mean, that's like I wouldn't have done it, but I get it.

What's the difference between Maui and Galveston? Like, what kind of question is that? Are we three unders? Three unders? Unders, under Utah Jazz,

over under 19 and a half. they were 17 and 65 last year. They lost John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, and Colin Sexton. Didn't really get anything back for any of those guys. They have Kyle Anderson. They have my comeback player of the year,

pick Yusuf Nurkich. That's not true. George Nying and they added Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton. And most importantly, Zach, we'll keep mentioning this with the picks. They owe a top eight

first protected to OKC, which means to be safe. You want to be in the bottom five to feel really good about not having a hand-knit pickover. I don't know where to start with this team. I get, we'll start here. How does Will Hardy explain his job to his wife? When he's home at night, what does he say?

This is year four for Will Hardy being like, hey, if it's cool, we want to go 18 and 64 again. I think you say there are only 30 of these. my they keep extending my contract into perpetuity do you like the home we live in school system seems pretty good like we're living we're like the five-star hotels on vacation all summer where where we go yeah i think it's a good situation i think he's like look like look around the league at the coaches if he became available he would i mean you know instantly by any of the top teams in the league if a top team needed to make make a move like none of this uh is going to

to besmirch his character. San Antonio? Interesting, interesting name. This is why Utah. I mean, they've literally, I've lost count of how many contract extensions Will Hardy has got. Like, I assume his deal runs for like 17 more years. They know, but that's what you do.

Like, if you believe in a coach and the coach is going through a rebuild, you give him these kind of years. So it's not the classic thing where as soon as the team gets good, oh, we're hiring the veteran coach. He's over qualified for this team. And that's been the case for all four years. Plus it worked out incredible for Brett Brown. So what I'm saying.

Don't want that you treat. That was a joke. I know, but that's what I'm saying. This is what the extensions signal to make. You just made the case that Brett Brown's friends were making in the 2010s. No, this is great. Someday it's going to be awesome and he's never coached again. But they never gave him like extensions on top of extensions on top of extensions.

Like the jazz are doing with. Why do you think they did? He gave him the GM job. That's true. Took Markov Fultz over Jason Tatum. That wasn't him. Wasn't him? Who was it?

I think that was no one of the. Oh, here's my next what's in it for you at this point. What's in it for Lori Marketing House at this point? Why does he want to be in this team? $175 million. Great contract. Yeah, a lot of dollars. Well, they gave him the extension.

You're being the team this year and then we'll talk about it after. Nice comfortable situation. Not being asked to do too much. That's the only, that's the over argument is that the number is extremely low. And they have an all-star borderline, all-star level player who played 47 games last year and a good starting center who played 58. If they get 75 games out of those two, can they go over this number? Because the bigger issue beyond that is I think all these other veterans are going to go to contenders.

I think a guy like George Nyang could help a contender. I think they're all gone. The biggest issue is like, who in the hell is dribbling the ball for this team that I trust to manage productive NBA possessions? And I have the answer is like at this point, and it's not a bad thing because they're all so young, I don't trust anybody. And so, like, Lowry Markinen is not, like, a first option ball handler type of star. I just don't know that combined with the possibility of them trading Markinen, I'm going under, which is shocking considering 19 and a half is like an embarrassing little number. It's a super low number.

The thing that makes me nervous about it is that Ace Bailey might be a bad ass motherfucker. And it might make those people so excited that they come out and they try and win game. They do like what Brooklyn did last year, which is. is they come out and wins some games early on in the season and, you know, look really good. Hold on. I'm on with my realtor. I told him we'd be calling.

Because apparently Ace Bailey Island, there's condos. There's no island. How is there an island? It's a giant island. It's like a peninsula. Top five pick of the draft. It's a huge island. He was a top three that slid.

There's beachfront property available on Ace Bailey Island. I'm in. Are you in? I assume we're all in. Yeah, we're all in, obviously. It's overcrowded. It's overcrowded. No, he's telling me it's not overcrowded.

But, like, he said that all the stuff in the off-stays that made people nervous, right? Yeah, okay. All right, we're in. He's going to be very exciting. I'm high on him. He's going to have crazy highlights. I just don't think it's going to be, like,

efficient against adult NBA teams. That's all. Counter. He looked like a more filled out 19-year-old Kevin Durant in all the highlights I've seen so far. I would take it a little easy. I just said, look, you can't see my boner right now. Zach Lowe sending you some settle down juice right now.

He's pushing it right to your direction. I assume you're going like way over. No, I'm going under. I am going under as well, but I just want to make the case that Ace Bailey is the argument for the over because, I mean, like that enthusiasm. I actually thought he was going to be a bust after, like some of the advanced stats with him as a college player combined with how erratic some of the, non-basketball stuff seemed, and then him

going to Utah and not seeming like he wanted to go there. And I was like, oh, man. But I understand why Danny did it, because it's like you have to go highest ceiling. This guy's the highest ceiling. You got to do it. But then all the stuff I've read, all the stuff I've heard, and then watching him how comfortable he seems physically in these games already when he's

like a baby. He's a professional basketball player. He has more like thickness and size than I was expecting. And then the shot, I don't I don't know if he would be fun to play with. He might just be like his own solo act, but I think it's going to be really easy for him to score.

And it may be right away, which to me makes me think that maybe you move faster on marketing, like trying to make the trade. Because it's like you can put ace in, like let's get him the ball. Let's get him shots. And I just want to say for the Utah fans, me saying who's dribbling the ball.

I watched your team. I saw what Isaiah Collier did. Like solid. Kianti George has flashes. I'm just saying like this is the NBA. It's hard to run offense and their efficiency numbers were bad. If you have property on Ace Bailey Island, which is, by the way, ridiculous. It's like a continent.

Can I get like a little condo on Philipowski Fjord? I like that guy. He's pretty good. I like them, too. I like sensible. I like some of the guys in this team. They're going to be terrible this year. They...

I'm going to watch them, by the way. So our only disagreement in this entire division is Denver. I'm under and you're over. That's it. Otherwise, we're unanimous. We're all under on this. Yes, we're all under. Can I give you three?

marketing teams really quick? Sure. Detroit's been the sexy one. Could this be our last gasp gold state move? They already tried to get them. I'm not sure how that one works now with Butler and the door

salary-wise. Kaminga, they can't patch the salaries together or no. They have picks to trade. I mean, Kaminga's got a base year compensation thing. Moody. Buddy healed. All their picks. Is Kamingo on the right timeline for Utah?

I don't, that I don't know. Would I want to jeopardize the Ace Bailey continent with Kamika? I'm not sure. Should Houston have gone after marketing over KD? We're going to have. That's a fascinating question. That's a good one. I was thinking about that the other day.

Would Utah have taken Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks, and the number 10 for marketing? But probably like another first. You'd have to throw in like more stuff, right? Maybe a Brooklyn pick? Yeah, you'd have to throw in more stuff And the contract is like The contract is right now After he played 47 games last year

Not entirely his fault The Jazz were faking injuries And all that stuff Yep The contract is kind of an eye Of the beholder contract Like you can find executives Around the other people are like

I don't know if I want to pay Larry Markin in $54 million in four years I did I sent house the Death Trarts The starters bench for each team Utah's bench Ace Bailey

William, Sensible, Clayton, Merkich, and Philipsky. Are they going to play him and marketing together? Let's go.

What are we waiting for? All right. We're moving to the Southwest Division, which is led by the Houston Rockets over under 52 and a half minus 220 to win the division,

which surprised me. 17 to 1 for the title, 10 to 1 for the conference. They were 52 and 30 last year. They added Kevin Durant, you might have heard of them. Clint Capella for some reason. Finney Smith, they lost Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green.

They lost Landale, who I like. They lost Whitmore to House's Wizards. Let's go, Whitmore. And sadly, they lost Fred Van Bleet. And I think that's the question with this over under is I'm old school. I still believe point guards kind of matter. And this seems like a high number in a really good conference for a team that I have no idea who's going to be handling the ball for them against pressure and crunch time situations. who's going to be making sure people get the ball properly.

I talked about this with Goldsbury last week. Like there's some stagnation, toilet bowl offense potential with this team. 52 seemed high, Zach. What do you think? The Van Vleet injury is a killer. Amman Thompson, Reed Shepard, you know, they'll get their turns. We'll see how that goes. I think game to game, their floor is really high

because their defense is going to be so good. Their rebounding is going to be so good, and they're going to play super hard every single night. I'm worried about Ysen missing games because he misses games every year. Van Vleet's already out. Finney Smith has had health issues in the offseason. Durant generally checks in at like 60 games.

Durant was in the 2007 draft. Yeah. Were you married yet, has? No. How many wives ago was that? That's not funny. I've only been married to one wife, but I took my time. That's why I wasn't married in 2007.

I thought it was kind of funny. 52 and a half is a big number. I'm surprised it didn't move a little bit more with Van Vleet's injury. Me too. And I am going under on the Rockets. Oh, I wanted to be the first one to say under on the Rockets. I'll be the second one to say under on the Rockets. That's the case.

I think they're going to be like 50 and 30, 49 and 33, 43, 48 and 34, but I'm going under. That's a big number. Just tell me who they're going to acquire for the FVV spot. they need to they need a body that's the wild card they could make any kind of trade they want make your case for your team with this in this spot well i do think that cj mccallin would be kind of uh an incredible replacement for for fv i think it's like an 85 cents on the dollar kind of thing i'd shout out my guy ben standing who threw that at me he's like why wouldn't hughston grab cj i was like oh you know what that's a goddamn good point the other thing

the reason to be concerned about this number is because uh their their coach is is Just a monster. And you would worry looking at this team coming in with the FV injury and say the chemistry piece of this is going to be funky. Are they going to be like Minnesota, a 500 team for a little while until they figure it out? Not with EMA. I think they're going to come in prepared. Are you sending out Bamblet in this McCollum trade?

Just cold-hearted? Yeah. Thanks for your service. Cold-hearted. Enjoy your reading. Houses just ice cold when it comes to trades. Ask them about Isaiah Thomas. Yeah.

That's fair. I mean, this is the NBA. It's one to ten scale with the 10 being trading Isaiah Thomas when he had a hurt hip. That was just fucking brutal. I didn't feel good about that. Houston wants to win the title. They acquired Kevin Durant. How many more years is Kevin Durant going to be effective?

So the case for the over 52, if you're going to make it, Thompson would have to go make the leap that everyone's been making a leap. But I'm saying like a leap leap. Like, reliable 18 to 22 points. We'd have to be like, holy shit, this guy's turned in a, I think, a pretty amazing two-way player. But the other thing is defense is good with the over-unders. I was like, if you're reliable defense night tonight over 82 games, it's usually a decent indicator with the overs. And I think Schengun goes up a notch this year, too.

Eurobasket? You wouldn't do it. What, I wouldn't watch it? You weren't watching the Eurobasket pay-per-views. You were just highlight. I don't need another streaming service, but I think Schengun is still has untapped stuff. House didn't watch it.

He just went on NBA Reddit a couple times and watched highlights. Good enough. That's it. That was all you had. Good enough. Uh-oh. Legacy makeover.

Oh, my. Uh-oh. I'll be worried. We're doing it, aren't we? We're doing it. We're just going to dive right in and do the thing. If they make the finals this year with, without Van Vliet and Durant's the centerpiece of this,

super happy, it's it's a this is like the last thing that could shift anything for him I think because I think people have decided one way or another on him if you you're for the camp like I think you and I are in

in house where it's like we actually think this guy's better than people realize this career was better in 17 and 18 on Golden State he actually was fucking unbelievable that 14 MVP season

all the scoring stuff I think he's the best pure scoring forward of all time the LeBron fans we'll debate that because he'll be like well lebron has the most points i'm just saying like just from getting two points i think he's the surest bet we've ever had at the forward position and yet there's all the other stuff that we don't need to go into and all the baggage and how unhappy the phoenix thing was how unhappy the brooklyn thing became 2016 okayc up three one in

that series blowing it um 2014 not being able to get over the hump there's a lot of ways you can ding him but if he takes houston to the finals as their best guy, that's like an unbelievable new wrinkle to this. Look, we could do three hours. We could. We probably will at some point. Reconstructing Kevin Durant's career or going through the alternate realities of Kevin Durant's career after that 2016 season, including one where maybe he goes and saves

the Wizards. I would say he's had the most sliding doors of any NBA point of this century, even if you start with the Seattle thing. Just him, them net moving and just having that nucleus. He's probably still there now. in the Seattle Supersonics. And I think he and his people were caught off guard by, and I don't think they should have been,

but just like the perception that the Warriors championships count is like half championships. Like he's just never going to get the credit that a two-time finals MVP should for those two seasons because the deck was stacked. Yeah. And he's been searching for Brooklyn, Phoenix, and like, you know, it just hasn't worked.

And he's part of the reason it hasn't worked. Like he's been awesome, but he's like the mood of those teams has not been very happy. Anything ad house? No, I agree. He turned down your team like seven different times.

You didn't even take the calls. Didn't take the calls. Zach knows. I didn't have to say it. Yeah. I mean, you can understand why. Franchise in Washington finally has a good front of us.

Have you decided on KD or could he do anything with the rest of his career that would change anything in your head? I feel like there's two more years. It's this year and next. and let's see what happens. I'm excited just to have him have all the Jalen Green possessions from last year,

just in my head with the Rockets, just give him all of the Jalen Green dribbling the ball up for 15 seconds and doing some sort of Jalen Green play. That'll be fun. Are you reigniting your feud with Jalen Green? Is that what's happening right now? No, I'm just excited to see Kevin Durank.

Are you going under? What's your call? I'm a hard under. No, I'm just under. I think there's somewhere in the 48 to 51 range for me. But I think them going 53 and 29 or higher without Van Vuit seems insane to me. In this conference, if they're in the east, more of an argument. Zach, I asked Goldsbury this last week, West teams you'd want to be the next five years.

O.K.C. in San Antonio or one, two, in some order, correct? Yeah, I mean, without thinking about it, it's hard to beat. It's hard to be with that. Those two were the top two house. You agree? OKC San Antonio. You'd want to be, you want to have those rosters and those assets over anybody else. Okay.

Does Houston have a case for the third spot? This is a great question. I gave you Houston, Denver, Dallas, Minnesota. Minnesota is the one that I think is the closest for me. I think Anthony Edwards is going to be that motherfucker. Blink test, as you like to say, I think it has to be. Because of the picks. The picks and Amen Thompson.

Like, just give me all the Amman Thompson stock. And the trade flexibility. Yeah. Yeah. I think we all agree. All right, San Antonio, 43 and a half is the over and under. There was some action on this. This was 44.5.

Last week, it dropped. Plus 450 for the division. Hold that thought. 35 to 1 for the conference. 65 to 1 for the title. Minus 166 for the playoffs. They went 34 games last year, even though women. B did not play after the All-Star break.

They added Luke Cornett and Kelly Olinick. They added Dylan Harper, the second pick in the draft. They added Carter Bryant. And they lost CP3 Mamu, who I know you love. Branham. They have new coach Mitch Johnson. Fox is out to start the season. So the case here would be, are these guys 10 wins better than last season?

What do you think, House? Are they 10 wins better? Just right out of the box? No. I don't think so. It's asking a lot with the injury uncertainty and I don't feel like we're completely in the clear with injury uncertainty with this team. Like the way they're building, Wembe looks unbelievable. So is that a Wembe injury certainty? It's just across the board. You're just nervous for him just perennel. Yes. I'm going to be until we get 70 games from him. Give me a nice, nice, easy, reliable 70. And then, you know, then we're just perennel. Yes. I'm going to be until we get 70 games from him. Give me. Give me a nice, nice, nice, nice, easy, reliable 70. And then, you know, then we're that we can build from there, after what happened. So, and the Fox thing is a bummer also. Ten wins is just a bridge too far for me.

And I think the West, this is a function of how competitive the West is. I only have, like, one team dropping out of the top 10, one team moving into the top 10. The spurs ain't it. So it's an under for me. Zach Lowe? Over. Over. 43 and a half over.

I don't even, like, I just think one medium is incredible. and he's going to be, I mean, what's the, at worst, the six or seven best player in the NBA this year, top 10 defense all by himself. The Fox thing makes me nervous. The Fox injury was my only pause. The only reason I even thought about this. You can say, well, do they have enough shooting around one,

but I'm a fair question. How do Fox Harper Castle, three ball handlers who are shaky three-point shooters? How does that all fit? Sohan is another non-shooter. I think the Cornette thing is a massively underrated upgrade for their team. Olinic can help their team. team. I just, but to me it comes down to

I just thinks this dude is so goddamn good and their supporting cast is good enough that I can get to 44, 45 wins. I'm over. Best Big Men, year three. Duncan won the title in year two. Kareem also won the title in year two. Hakeem lost the finals in year two. So these are all things that happen in the first three years

of someone's career. Dave Cowan's year three, MVP, 68 wins, Eastern Conference finals. Shaq year three, 57 wins made the finals. David Robinson year three was his famous fantasy season house, 23 and 12 with 6.8 stocks, blocks and steels combined. Moses, 49 wins Eastern Conference finals. The only two, Yao had 51 wins. The only two year three guys out of the great centers, Ewing and Dwight, where nothing happened. We had him on a TV last night as we watched football. And I just think it's indisputable that he looks way better than he did as a rookie, that he moves better, all the shit that he's doing with, he's a tiny bit heavier.

He's a tiny bit. He doesn't look like a baby deer running around in the woods that's falling over half the time. Like he doesn't, he's just moving fluidly. And there's some stuff he's added. Like he has this crazy two-hand shack dunk now where he thrust his chest and groin and to the guy's face, basically. Rusting groins. Yeah. It's been a, there's been a lot of innuendos, you know. No, no, no.

He's French. What do you expect? Yeah. The three point shot looks more fluid. I'm with you. I think he, I think he might be actually awesome. Like, he's 12 to 1 the MVP.

I think it's like a real life. He's actually awesome. He is awesome. He's awesome. He's fucking awesome. I'm saying like MVP conversation, 12 to 1. Yeah. He's in the MVP conversation.

I said this last week on my pot. It's like, people are, keep saying like, well, if things go right, he could get. in the fringe of No, he's in, he's going to be in the MVP conversation. He's one of the best six players in the league. So to me, it's an automatic over.

But we didn't mention one thing. You skipped over it because you mentioned Cornett and Olinic, and I think that's going to be really important, that they actually have competent big guys that can play with him, that can come in when he's missing a game, whatever. I was thinking of a nickname for them house.

Cornet and Olinick? I can offer you white castles, cracker barrels, or the mayonnaise man. I like the mayonnaise man or just the mayo man. You're so sad that Cornett's not on the Celtics. I love Cornett. Are you over it?

Are you like... Well, not only, I mean, my dad has really been inconsolable, but he was also like a great locker room, like really beloved personality guys, too. He would just make gestures on the court after random events. Just a great teammate. Even the teammates were like, I don't know where, like, what that signifies. But that's another thing, the spurs. I think there's, I think the chemistry is going to be awesome.

I agree. But we didn't mention one thing. And I think it's really important. And I don't think it's been mentioned enough. And I think people just assumed he wasn't going to be impactful this year, myself included. But watching some of the preseason. This is the only preseason team that I've actually watched multiple times, plus reading the stuff about the team and the quotes from people. I think Harper is going to be good right away.

I think he's going to be actually impactful. And when you watch him and he's, you know, he's a kid. He was a freshman in college last year. there's a comfort and an ease with how he plays that you just see immediately. He really knows where to go. He's got, he's patient already. He's big. He's not like this, you know, 19 year old guard coming in.

He was like, oh, man, when he grows into his body, like, he has the fucking body already. He's lefty. And I think there's something really special there potentially with him. And granted, I've only watched him a little bit. But to me, that is the X factor. I'm already counting in Wembe. It's the Harper piece. That's fine.

And I'll just, I'm, I'm content with waiting to see it. I want to say out loud, I know that Wemby played over 70 games his rookie year and then 46 last year. I don't need people saying, hey, you played 70. Well, I want to see it post this kind of injury. He had a major medical issue. Yeah. He's gigantic.

That's what this is about. And I'll reserve judgment on Dylan Harper, which feels fair. I also, I think there's a castle. Everybody forgot about me and I've worked really hard on my game. I'm really good too I don't think we forgot about I mean one rookie of the year It's just like not that

It wasn't it wasn't overwhelming You talk about this team You talk about Wemby You talk about Dylan Harper You talk about all the bench ads And nobody's like Oh they also have Castle Who's the best rookie last year

I think this is like a great Landing spot for Dylan Harper Everyone is fixated on like Fox And how does he fit timetables When Fox is back You can play Dylan Harper 15 minutes a game You don't have to force feed him anything

You don't have to overdo it you can you can stagger the minute so that fox is out he's in and wemby's in at the same time because you're going to stagger and like make his life a little i think it's a great spot for him and i just want to say did you guys see the highlight of carter bryant chase down block attempt where he's like it's in the flow of the game and he jumps and he's his hand is above the square they were measuring it yeah i saw that like if this guy can give them anything on offense he is such a freak and such an elite defender already

like I'm tempering my excitement over that's fine I'm gonna lose you guys are gonna win this this one and I'm not just a hard over I'm a fully erect over I want you to know the market moved like they were 44 and a half and people thought that was too rich so that that's settled at 43 and a half

and I'm just you know I'm gonna just temper my enthusiasm there's a couple there's one Fando bet I want to to mention they're three to one to win 50 games and i think i think of all the teams that we're not thinking of as 50 win teams this is the team that has the ceiling for me because like you just mentioned carter bryant they have multiple athletes at these wing spots i always think about it like if if you're just on another team and you're looking at the schedule like oh who where are we going

this week on our road trip and you saint atoneo is one of the teams you're like fuck this is a And they got they got stuff to trade. They got anything they need to trade. They have stuff to trade, which was the last piece of this house. They have all their own first. Yeah. They have first swap with Atlanta this year, which might not matter. They have Atlanta's unprotected next year.

They got some Boston, Dallas stuff. They have a swap with Sacramento in 31. Anything you got with Sacramento is always a golden ship. And they have some contract stuff to, you know, like they can put like Barnes with Keldon Johnson. if you want Vasell, we'll talk about it. They could pretty quickly add up

to like a 40 to 45. Like this could be a marketing team. They're on the list. They're on my marketing list. That's a good one. This could be an out of nowhere Jalen Brown team. I mean, who knows? You can't even pencil in a better fit

than marketing in Wenbenyama. It's just if you have marketing in Wenbenyama Fox, you are now loaded with like $3.50 million plus salaries. Harper was the one that flipped it for me, though. You just, you know. Sometimes you know what this shit. That guy belongs on a basketball court with good players.

I think there's something with him and Wemby that they, I mean, them get it. They didn't expect when they traded for Fox, they didn't know they were getting the second pick, right? I don't think they trade for Fox if they know they're getting the second pick. I think they probably saved the assets, even though that was a pretty fair trade for them. All right, next team. Wow, if you thought our boners weren't in full swing, the Dallas Mavericks over 40 and a half, they are plus 850 for the division

they are plus 108 for the playoffs which might be my single favorite bet on the board not to tip my hand their third 943 last year they lost Spencer dinwiddie and they added D'Angelo Russell they don't have Kyrie for probably two thirds of the season they added Cooper flag who has a chance

Zach to be the most impactful American rookie since Anthony Davis and I think that's in play and I think it's going to happen okay over under just flat out you're asking me where do you want to start

this was the one that I struggled with the most I mentioned to you after I left last night before the commanders blew that game sorry come on I thought we were new pod friends here that I was going to go revisit just make sure Adam locked in this was the team that I was struggling the most with

because it's a 40 and a half it's like right obviously right in the middle flag is going to be awesome they're a weird team like that trends super big you know I mean they're just openly not starting a guard

yeah last night they're like what if yeah what would it look like if we just don't even start DeAngelo Russell and we don't have Kyrie Irving and we don't really have another

what did they do flag Washington Gafford Davis and it was a gigantic line yeah everybody was like six seven and up and Clay is still here and got you know

it's a strange team I am going under I'm 40 and a half I'm stunned I'm stunned. You know what? You're not allowed on Cooper Flag Island. No.

Not everything can be an island. You're not allowed on the Cooper Five continent. An island is designed to be something with a limited population in a small territory. It's fair. All right, here is my case for this. These are Anthony Davis's games played. This is exactly the right animal. This is from 2020 on.

62, 36, 40, 56, 56, 56, 76, 76, 76, 56, 56. 51, 42, if it's 55 games or 50 games, they're going under. Like, they just, with Kyrie missing two-thirds of the season, nothing about flag, love flag, love their centers, love the PJ Washington deal, love some of their depth teaches, shout out Najee Marshall, like Max Christie, blah, blah, if they just don't get enough games out of Kyrie coming off a massive injury and AD who, I just read the game logs, I, I, 41 wins in the West is a bridge just a teeny bit too far for me. Wow.

Boy, when you're talking about your concerns about Anthony Davis's durability, that's just right in the house, wheelhouse. I think he was the first person ever to express concerns in America. Fully healthy, and I don't know if you can count on Kyrie. They're more a next year team than this year team because of Kyrie. Kyrie changes their team, obviously. Fully healthy, they're a scary motherfucking team at the playoffs. I'm just talking about getting through 82 games and winning more than half your games.

it's a it's if i have to get plus there's a sneaky like if this season is not going great and we do have injuries this is the one of the only years we control our first round pick in the next half decade so i'm going i'm just enough is pulling me to under well we know that they'll gladly tank down the stretch i mean we have recent memory to look at for that uh exercise they that's how they got derrick lively um man this one is is is indeed the most difficult really probably across the whole because of the Davis thing

yeah I mean we Anthony like if I told you AD was playing 65 games so you would go over you wouldn't even think about it not even think twice he has played 65 games once since 2017-18 so what are you doing house over because 40

and a half this team with the size and the wings and the versatility you're asking asking for a 500 team to get to the over. And I think Cooper flag with 45 Anthony Davis games is enough for the over. I also think here's the thing that I really regret. Karma, the basketball gods, should be on the side of an under, should be this team sucking ass, this upcoming season as the, because I mean.

But then they're in the lottery again with another chance. And with that chance, they get the 14 pick. That's the karma that the basketball gods should reward. Counter. Great trade. They traded Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg. Fuck me. I don't know. Maybe Nico knew what he was doing.

You see the vision. He saw the vision. You see it. He had the vision. This total dropping from 41 and a half to 40 and a half put it right into my kisser. And it's a 41-win team. So I'll take the over. I mentioned earlier the teams that the people look at the schedule and they're like,

fuck, we're playing that team. I think Dallas is another example. This is just a long, scary team that's going to try really hard. Flag tries as hard as any really we've come in the week. I love Flag so much. It hurts me to go under for that reason. I just think they're going to have an intensity that's going to cover up some of, like, okay, Davis isn't playing for four weeks.

They're actually probably fine if he doesn't play for a couple weeks. They actually have big men depth. It's like, all right, fine. I guess we'll just play Gafford and Lively with Cooper Flagg at PowerFord. We'll be okay. I think Lively is being slept on as like a potential leap guy. I just the strangeness plus the injury risk plus the West just being loaded. I'm going like slight, slight under.

It's very, it's very fair case. Who's going to shoot threes on this team and knock them down? Clay. Clay. Clay. Well, that's that, right. Delo, don't forget about first three months. of the season deal? This is what he does. I'm okay with forgetting about him.

You going over? I'm going hard over. Yeah, he loves the over. I think this team's going to be good. I already bet on this. Is Anthony Davis the 21st century's most frustrating superstar? Would you pick someone else? Granted, he's won a title. Just in basketball or in other sports? Nobody's more frustrating than Joel Embed.

Oh, good, good counter. You know what? That just, okay. Yeah, I was going to nominate Hardin. But he's one multiple. won a MVP rather. Fair. He's made it to a conference final at least. You know, we

talked about Dylan Harper, we talk Yeah, Ben Simmons is up there too. He made an all NBA team. No, Gilbert Arena's just got hurt. He's not frustrating. He was as good as Kobe for like a year and a half. Now, maybe for three months.

Flagg and Harper, I just wanted to say this, this draft is night and day from last year. where last year some of the guys like Reed Shepard was the third pick and just was like a G league player

we don't know if he's good or not this year's draft Flagg has a chance to be like a transformative star I think Carper is really special Edgecombe is going to be winning Twitter and NBA Reddit and Instagram

Ace Bailey we are fascinated by House's dude Trey Johnson Yeah he's going to be good God damn we got the six fucking pick come on he's going to be an excellent and score. He's going to be great.

But then all these other, like, wings, these athletic wings that some of these teams have? I don't know. I think this drafts awesome. Did you intentionally skip over Bill Simmons, 2028 Olympian, Concanipple? Just just left him. Is he above this discussion?

I'm trying. I talk to my lawyers and they said, only talk about Condor and the Charlotte part because it's getting weird. So I'm just trying to obey that. But he's another one, though. He's going to play 35 minutes a game. I think the kid in Toronto is going to be sick. This is like has a really.

has a chance to be in all time we'll look back six years from around like oh my god and we've had a couple of those drafts over the years but I think this one would be a really good one Memphis 39 and a half dropped was 40 and a half went to

39 a half they've had some injuries they traded Desmond Bain they lost Cole Anthony they lost Luke Kinnard they lost Huff I know you're a Huff guy I like Huff. Zach's already running out of steam we got like 20 teams left I'm going great.

I'm not enthusiastic about Jay Huff mentions. Ty Jerome. They added him. Yeah. KCP. Yep. Landau.

Cedric Howard. Bernez guy. They're plus 154 for the playoffs. Plus 100 for the plan, which might be the bed of the year. And they have some injuries coming out of the gate and John Moran's already hurt.

Should be okay at some point. the first couple weeks, and, uh, yeah. Not just some injuries. Like, it's not great when all your centers are hurt, except for Joglando. Like, Edie's out for a while. And it's one of those where it's like, no, it should be back in December. It's like, Willie, he's. Brandon Clark had like another thing, another surgery.

Yeah. Triple J's out for a bit. Um, yeah, it's not, it's not great. The number is, like, this is on, on the surface, a disrespectful number to a team that has won, like, 48 to 50 whatever games in the last few years. And they just seemed to win, they just seemed to punch above their weight in the regular season until, of course, they fell apart last year, could not beat any good teams down the stretch, plummeted down the standings, et cetera, et cetera. I think this is a really good number by Vegas. That's off to Vegas because, like, 39 and a half are like, oh, that's, like, they can't even, they can be under 500 and go over this number.

I think that's appropriate, given their injury situation. This was a very tough one. This was another one of my very toughest, toughest picks. Has. Totally agree with Zach. I'm going to play over because this team goes so goddamn hard at home. They play their asses off for that Memphis crowd. They have a chip on their shoulder perpetually.

I think, say his name properly, Thomas Ayasalo. Tuamos Isolo. See that? Tuomis. Tuomis. It's tricky. Isolo. Isolo. I think coach Isolo.

See, they lost a defensive identity. That was part of what contributed to them sucking ass down the stretch. They couldn't stop anybody. Their games, they're overs in the last, like, 45 games, money in the bank. I love playing Memphis overs down the stretch last year. I do think that, you know, if they can weather the storm with these injuries and have any injury luck whatsoever, when Triple J, and Chris Vernon made this case, he makes it every single time we give them a microphone.

When Triple J and John Morant play together, they win basketball games. And so what's our over and under for a number of games that those two guys play, That sets the, that sets the, that's a big question. That sets the total number. So we're asking for them to win half their games. I think they're going to win half their games. I'm going, what would that number be over under on how many games both Morant and Jaron and Jaron Jackson Jr. play 55 and a half?

I mean, I would be like a hundred and five. No, but I'm saying together, they both play in the same game. There's 82 games and how many of those 82 to those guys play? You think it's in the 40s? See, I think it's the worst. I think 60 is in play. So I think this is why I'm taking the slight over here.

But you guys can't, you made the whole Anthony Davis case and then now now these two are going to be. I just said the over and a half. I thought it was low. You're going lower than me. Okay.

I just don't trust the health with those guys. We're doing overunders with in the overunders. It's an overunder pod. The Eighty thing I thought was really bad. Yeah. Because I feel like that's a half the year. And look, Bain was really good.

last year. He's the top 40 to 50 player in the league, wherever you have them on your list. And they traded him for a bunch of, you know, a bunch of future stuff. KCP, I don't know what happened in Orlando last year where, like, literally no one could shoot, including the guy that they got to shoot. KCP is like

a solid fifth starter. Like, I feel good about his fit on the team. I like Scotty Pippen Jr. and tie Jerome off the bench. That's like a good, stabilizing benchback court. I'm going over with House here. I think the number just got too low. I'm going over. Okay.

I went, I'm only going under because I felt like St. Antonio, Dallas, and Memphis, you can't do all three overs. And I already did my overs on St. Antonio and Dallas. I went under on Dallas. I don't trust, I don't trust the hell stuff. I thought, though, the last 25, 30 games of last year were so bad, maybe more of an indication of who they are. Well, they fired the coach. I get it. There's also some, like, if this becomes the year from hell.

25 games into the season. What do you do about that of the Grizzlies? And they gave... There's some year from hell potential with starting off with this many injuries. I mean, I could argue you already have the year from hell with all the injuries they've had.

It was two years ago. Yeah. That's true. I didn't... The Jaron Jackson extension was pricey. I know they had to do it, but... He's sick. He's a sick ball player where he plays. I love him.

Can he give me seven rebounds a game? That's not his... His game. Yeah. Well, who's going to rebound for this team this year? Whenever are those big guys. My boy, John Concher. Yeah, I couldn't get there.

Santi. I look forward to them starting out this season well, and then Verna sending me long, angry Texab. They do. I went deep enough into the Memphis weeds that I looked at their first 15 games. It's a pretty soft first 15 games, which is another reason I went over.

I was like, they should be able to survive this being like 7 and 8 after this amount of time. We're going to take a break, And then we're going to talk about the most entertaining team in this conference from a conversation standpoint. The New Orleans Pelicans. Oh, my God. Halloween is on Disney Plus. So you can feel a little fear.

What's this? Or a little more fear. I see dad be more. Or a lot of fear. Mom. Or you can get completely terrified. Choose wisely With Halloween on Disney Plus

As you could tell from this over under's pod I love betting NBA futures One of my favorite things Gives you a little steak not just in your team But you can pick five, six, seven other teams Just kind of monitor their progress Over the six months season I like doing finals winners

I like doing pairings for the finals. I'm not allowed to bet on any of the awards because I have a vote. But the playoff stuff is really fun. Playing is kind of a fun one. Season leaders, you can bet on stuff like, well, Wembe, have a quadruple double this year. You can bet on that on Fando. You can parlay stuff together. I love betting on Steph Curry for most threes every season because he usually wins if he plays enough games. Anyway, we're going to be talking about a bunch of these during the Overrunner podcast. And then on Thursday night's podcast, we're going to be announcing our big super boost for the upcoming season.

That will be Friday, 1014 on Fandall. Be ready. New Orleans Pelicans, over 30 and a half. They have the first round pick. It's just gone. They lost it in a crypto scandal. Where did it go? They lost it.

They invested in aspiration and lost their first round pick. What's the bushy head guy who's in jail? Sam Friedman. Yeah. He took it. He took it. They invested in a movie student. They went bankrupt.

It's just gone. We were trying to buy trees. They wanted some trees. No matter what happens with this team, they won't be able to draft to play up their success, which makes them an enticing over for 30 and a half because we've seen this every year. There's two teams that they're not going to tank. Why would we tank?

We have nothing to tank for it. Let's play hard. Let's try to win. They added Jordan Poole, House's guy, who was actually like sneaky good last year. Kavon Looney, veteran, Sadiq Bay's back. They drafted Derek Queen, who's already hurt, Jeremiah Fierrez, who won't play until about 2030.

They lost McCollum, Olinick, and Bruce Brown. Wow, that was a, that was a very pointed shot. He's 18. He's playing now. He's going to play now. Okay. We'll see. The question, Zach, is,

could they be this year's 2025 Hawks? A team that's over. 25. Last year's hawks, this year's hawks? Last year's hawks. Last year's 24-25 hawks. What happened with them? Why are they interesting? They didn't have their first-round pick and they just gave a shit and tried. And even when Jalen Johnson got hurt, they were like, we're still going to try. We're not going to be resting anybody. We're still going to be going for it. And the addendum to that, did skinny Zion suck you in at all? No. No. I mean, it's better than the alternative, but I'm not sitting here like, oh, I saw some photos. Pencil and 70s. I'm going to pencil in, if I'm an optimist, I'm going to pencil in 56 Zion games. Like, that's like, I'm not hoping for anything better than that. We should have done a games played draft.

Save it. Where, you have a podcast that work. No, we could do that later. I can't wait for Philly. You guys do it. Well, Herb Jones played 20 last year. Murray played 31. He's going to miss at least a big chunk of the season.

And Murphy got hurt right before the season. Ingram played 18. Yeah, it was, no, Skinny Zion did not suck me into like, oh, everything's great now. They figured everything out. But your question is the interesting one. I talk to people around the league, you would think the trade and all the flak they took for it would incentivize them to win, win, win, win, win at all costs.

And Willie Green may be coaching for his job. Win, win, win, at all costs. We have to save ourselves from embarrassment. as a front office, save our job as a coaching staff. But also, the counter is the front office is massively incentivized to show right away that Queen in particular is good, that Queen in Fears is good.

Do they put their thumb on the scale with the coaches? Like, you've got to give these guys major rotation roles because we've got to show they're good because the more they play, rookies tend to not help you win games. So I think those, it's a fascinating show. Wow. So this is another situation and where the front office and the coaching staff

maybe not on the same page. Well, maybe the front offices knew they didn't hire their coaching staff. Great point, you know. Great point. I mean, Willie making it through last year was kind of a miracle. I certainly didn't agree with it.

They won 49 games the year before that. I get it. So Queens hurt to start the year. Yes. If they're like a frisky eight and nine when he comes back or whatever the timetable is for his return, does he get gifted 25 minutes a game because he's Derek Queen and we made this massive swing for him,

Does Willie Green have the leeway to be like, hey, man, sorry, we're kind of rolling. We'll spot you six, seven minutes at the end of the first half and see what goes from there, you know? House, let me give you the rotation. Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, Pool. Looney's going to start over, Missy. Okay. Which I like. Adult in the room.

Set screens, get rebounds, make the right reads. I like it. So Looney, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, and Pool. It's a professional basketball team. Sure is. And the guy's on the bench. Missy, Alvarado, Hawkins, who I just continue to like,

I would have been trying to trade for him the last two years. Queen when he comes back, Murray when he comes back, fears. I mean, they have... Did you say Bay? I like Bay. And Bay, if he's... I haven't seen him yet, is he. He's playing okay in the preseason.

Like, that's a lot of basketball players' house. I agree. I'll just come out. I'm on over on this team. I think the way the incentives run, and, you know, Willie Green, 49 games two years ago and 42 games the year before that.

And that's with all of the Zion, you know, how many games is he playing situation? They have a lot of dudes and they have the capacity to be a pretty intense defensive team. And you're only asking them to win 31 games. 31 and 51 over. And you're like this. Right. I have a confession. I have two confessions for you guys.

I kind of like the Jordan Poole trade the more I looked at it. For Washington? For both teams. I love it for Washington. I still find it inexplicable for the Pelicans. I'm going to try to explain it. Are they ever signing a free agent ever in a million years?

Okay. Continue. Pool has this year and then next year. Yeah. Pool, I think for the team they have, is probably a better fit than expiring C.J. McCollum, who they're not going to trade for future pieces anyway because they already lost their first round pick.

And then Poole's then expiring a year from now. I thought Poole was really competent last year. And House and I talked about him a bunch of times where it was like, this guy's like a good offensive player. He could help a team down the stretch. He can help a team that needs a boost scoring-wise. You just really have to tell that dude, here's the role. Don't let him think that he's in charge of anything.

That there's no big three. He's not on T-shirts. With Zion. Don't roll, say, oh, we're rolling the ball out, Jordan. Go ahead and do your thing. No, no, no, no. They also got, they also got Bay in that trade, who I, right, who we all liked for a while.

And then I was hoping he was going to be able to play for Washington. I have another confession for you guys. There's a couple Pelicans starting fives I really like. How about Center Zion with Murphy, Jones, Hawkins, and Pool? I want to see that for five minutes. The opposing offense is also dying to see that for you. I just want to see it. I didn't say I was going to win with that.

I decided to be entertaining. And then Missy, Murphy, Jones, Hawkins, and point forward Zion, no guards. When they do the point forward Zion thing, that'll be fun. That's what makes me a little nervous is not, we know Zion's health is always going to be an issue. They really need, like, more point Zion than they've ever needed before with any team. Because you just said, I don't want Jordan Poole in charge of the whole machine for too long. No. McCollum gone, Murray gone for at least part of the season.

Alvarado is a good backup. Fears is a rookie. Like, they're going to need not only his eye on to play, but to run more of the offense than he's ever run before. Sounds great. I like when he does that. Well, does his body like when he does that? Like, everything takes the toll, right?

He's taking things seriously now. You're going to, you're going playoffs. I am going over 30. I think they win between 31 and 35 games. Me too, me too. So you win the bet. I win the bet. We are all over.

The number is too low. Too much talent for this to be 30 and a half. One Pelicans point quickly. remember when they had this war chest of picks and we were like wow the pelicans all these picks no war chest the war chest is empty they have their own first in 2832

they have that 26 first is going to Atlanta and then they have a bucks or New Orleans first the worst goes to Atlanta they get to keep the best one in 27 The thing I have to remind myself all the time from that queen trade that they traded the best of those two picks to Atlanta is Milwaukee still gets the other one. Like New Orleans just gets nothing.

Like Milwaukee gets the lesser of their own and the Pelican's picks. Like it's the most dumbfounding decision. Atlanta might get into the lottery with two bites at the apple, like if the season goes badly for Milwaukee. Or Atlanta might have a major trade piece with that pick. All right, we're going to the Pacific. Ooh, yeah. Where the L.A. Quippers were the second highest favorites in this division. And then LeBron had some back issues.

And the odds flipped. And the quippers jumped two spots or two wins to 49.5. They're up to 49.5. They're up to 49 and a half. Ooh, nilly. They are plus 130 for the division. Now they're the favorites. They are 16 to 1 for the title.

minus 600 for the playoffs. Last year, they were 1532. They lost Powell, Coffee, and Eubanks, and added John Collins, Bradley Beale, Brooke Lopez, and Chris Paul. They also added a pretty annoying off-season scandal that still has not been resolved. Zach, how hilarious would it be

if the Clippers won the 2026 title? I'm going to give you some of the things that would happen from that. I mean, I... The Kauai Trade will have worked out, James Hardin would get off the hump. Chris Paul would get a ring. Bradley Bill would be a cult hero.

And Steve Balmer would go from embattled Clippers owner, Steve Balmer, to an absolutely crazed guy holding the trophy and screaming like a fucking maniac. Those are all things. On top of all the other things, like the Clippers have never made the finals before. Anyway, I think it would be hilarious.

It's a double legacy button. It's two. Which is legacy buttons everywhere. It's Legacy buttons. It's Hardin's legacy. Chris Paul? It's Kauai's legacy. It's Chris Paul getting the chip. Kauai titles on three teams? Kauai's legacy is really going to be incredible.

Like two-time finals MVP and just all the injury, mistime, mystery, controversy. Arguably should have been the finals MVP for OKC last year. Wow. I would have voted for him. I didn't get a vote. It's so rude. Imagine that? seven SGA votes and a vote for Kauai Lennard.

Did he play about Paul George doesn't even get any votes? I guess he could have. Anyway, 49 and a half for the deepest kind of veteran-ishy team in the league seemed low to me. And I'm just a,

I have to go over on this. I do that knowing that Kauai Lennard's on this team. What do you have, Zach? I mentioned how I went I wonder on the Nuggets because I can't go over on everybody in the West. Yeah. I like all these teams, love their depth, Harden, love him, hate him, look forward to his game seven shit burgers, whatever.

The dude is a regular season wins machine who plays all the time, which is the best possible insurance for whatever happens with Kauai. Like I can at least, I know I hand him the offense. They have depth. I was going to go over 48 and a half. If I'm going over 48 and a half, I should go over 49 and a half. I'm over. I'm over.

The age really makes me nervous. You seem really excited about it. Like Bogdanovich is already a little banged up. CPs, ancient, you know, like. It is one of those on paper

versus the actual. Because if you go through, it's like, well, Chris Paul's over 40. Brooke Lopez kind of looked like, you know, on the last legs

of being a productive rotation guy last year. Zoo, Zoo plays every game and plays a ton of minutes. You mean my third team all NBA? Yeah. Pick last year, The zoo? Perfect spot for the world. Deserved it, too.

I also think they actually have a little bit of a home court advantage now, which is the opposite of where they've been forever. There's, like, good energy at these games. They have a little bit of us, us against the world energy. Oh, especially now. I mean, the league's trying to bring down the clippers. What do you have, House? This team won 51 games in 20, 23, 24, 50 games last year, and a total under 50, sign me

the fuck up. I will take the over. Thank you, sir. We all went over on the Clippers at 49.5. That's not a small number, 49.5. In the West, this is with Ty Lou with this group, these are professional basketball players. Who's the chump on this team? Yeah, that one thing, like the Collins piece I really like because I always felt like when Kauai wasn't in there, they always just felt like Batum was the only kind of tall wing with size that they, that they had.

He shot 40% from three last year, didn't he? Yeah, in Utah, basically to trade Collins because he was too good for them. He's become the most underrated player in the NBA. I think John Collins is good. I think he's going to be good for the clippers. Good for the clippers. I don't think he's going to start or come off the bench. They've been a little cagey about that.

It seems like he's going to come off the bench. They'll start Derek Jones Jr. Because they want someone to guard the best wings on the other team and not have that someone be Kauai, which I get. But he needs to play a lot. John Collins, I think he checks a lot of boxes for them. He's wildly underrated. I have young, at least or young in his prime,

at least on this team, he's like a baby. I had the OKC, Denver, drop, Clippers, and then I would add Houston. I would add a 3A, 3B, 3C with Houston Clippers, Minnesota. And I think Houston can't be in there anymore because of the Bambute thing. So I would say Minnesota Clippers 3A3B for me. I'm stunned. In the top four. Over on the Clippers.

I'm stunned. They have so much talent. It's a big number and they're so old. They were really good in the playoffs. Also, I got to hit the legacy button for Brad Biel. This is a chance for Brad Boll. They were really good in the playoffs. I know that the way

the matchup wise I like the way that they matched up I understand the outcome I thought they played Denver great they did they were in game seven I know I know you get no flowers

but they should have won in six yes well they didn't you get no flowers for me for that when you embarrass yourself in game seven hot take

I thought they were third best team in the league last year I really did and yet would you ever trust them in a game seven no I wouldn't trust them

but I think they can win we all make money that way we wait till them to get to game seven then we make Look, I took the over. So I'm stunned. No one went just aggressively like too old scandal under boom.

No, I thought there was like a bus sitting there for you to just like make fun of the clippers for 10 minutes. With the way they care about the environment through aspiration. That's it. All the trees. All the trees have been planted thanks to the clippers. Think about that. You love the wall. Do like the wall.

The wall's good. The wall's good. We went over on the clippers, all three of us. Remember when he about that? Balmer flew the wall, the core, the inner circle of the wall, to Denver for games. It's a sad flight home. Yeah. No, I think, look, a lot would have to go wrong for this to go under.

I don't think that much has to go wrong. But I'm saying, like, you'd have a 30-game Kauai season. Okay. You would have to have Chris Paul and Lopez are just washed. You would have to have Beal being 10 games in, like, I signed here because I thought I'd be a bigger part of everything that's happening. And it's, I guess I'll have to get used to my new role. waiting for you to say something that's, like, wildly implausible.

All right. You said over. Zubots would have to not be as durable. I don't know. Zubox getting hurt fucks this up. That's for sure. Undoubtedly, without... I just think they have defense.

That pick and roll with Hardin was fucking awesome. The thing they didn't totally have last year that I think they have this year is, like, different kinds of lineups depending on who they're playing. But I felt like, I just thought they played OKC so well. well last year. It was the one team that I felt like, it was like boxing, could go toe to toe with OKC and really move around the ring with them. All right, the Lakers dropped from 49.5 to 47 and a half. They added DeAndre and Jake Loravia and whatever version of Marcus Smart, this is going to be. They lost Finney Smith. They lost Goodwin, who got kind of liked.

They're plus 220 for the division, 16 and 1 for the title, which is ludicrous. and I guess the question for me when LeBron comes back can you actually be a contender when you have to hide your three best guys on defense that's the part I can't wrap my head around with this team there's three best guys are all people you would attack if you're the other team on defense at this point LeBron can have those moments when he looks like Miami

LeBron for two seconds but for the most part he was pretty dialed in for like a two-month stretch He's going to be a year older, and now he has some sort of herniated disc, whatever, makes me nervous. I'll just spoil my pick right now. I'm under for this. I think I have them in like the 44 to 46 range. Shocker.

The shocker. The Lakers, the whole world. Exactly. Because I can't believe that Bill Simmons is not enthusiasm. How dare both of you? We came to your house. I went way over on them two years ago, and I think they might have, we crushed on it. The challenge for me, Zach Lowe, is there used to be a rule.

We used to have a rule that you just can't go under 46 or 47 games when one of the games five best players are on a team, right? So we're right on the cuspier with the 46 and a half. I thought the same thing. 45 and a half? I'm sorry, 47 and a half. It's 47 and a half. So Luca, skinny Luca, Luca with an agenda, this team is Luca's team.

This is his season to make his mark the true welcome to Los Angeles because they went out so feebly in the playoffs. And that wasn't, that's, Luca can, you know, wipe that dirt off his shoulders. This team is his team. It's going to succeed or fail with him. I am taking the under because I don't have a defensive identity for this team. I can't come up with the defense for this team. Yeah. I go through the the personnel.

I don't know. Nobody jumps off the page. And also, I can't over-emphasize the respect for the LeBron. I don't think sciatica is not like, oh, it's this thing that gets fixed. Here's the fix for sciatica. No, no, no, no, no. Not when you're 41 years old. This is going to be a persistent problem all season long.

If you want to do over-under for games played for LeBron James, and I'll set it. I'll set it at 30 and a half. Wow. I'll set it at 30 and a half for LeBron James. Well, here's the thing. The important thing is for him to play in the playoffs. So got to get there. In the West, you've got to get there.

You can't have these conversations in the West for one of these teams. Like, well, we get to the playoffs. That doesn't exist in the West. That's Luca's role. Playing and exists. Yeah, Luca by himself is 42 wins. He better, he better be. What do you think the most regular season wins,

a Luca Mavericks team ever got was? It was low 50s, right? Yeah, but they had a couple under 40. What was the year? They made the finals 50 wins. But they had the one year when they got lively. That was the tank year. So they went 38 and 44.

And how many of those games did he miss, though? I don't think he missed as many as. Didn't they like he was playing most of that time. All right. Well, Lakers fans, I'll be on the island by myself. I'm going over 47 and a half. The line dropped to a point where I felt comfortable doing it. I trust Luca, I trust Reeves.

I think they have better depth this year. I think LeBron will play more than what you just said, but who the hell knows? I've never had sciatica before. It sounds awful. 50 wins last year. Expected wins 45. Won a lot of clutch games,

got some opponent's shooting luck from three. They also had some crazy schedule stuff where they, it felt like over and over again they were playing some team where their best guy wasn't playing or two guys were missing. So yeah, I didn't feel like. like they were 50. Well, and to lean into your

your Lakers exceptionalism thing. They will lead the league in free throw rate every year and never get called for any foul. So I feel like I'm starting every game ahead 5-0. They certainly have the right head coach

for that. Great point. I'm going over 40s. I don't feel, like, this feels like optimistic. I don't think, like, I wouldn't go 50 on this team, but I can see 49 or 48,

so I'm going to go barely, barely over. So part of my case for, if there was like real urgency see with this season with them. I might feel differently about it. But this feels like such a transition season in so many ways. That's the smart money is on the under because they have a little bit to trade now,

but they have more to trade later and they have the cap room thing looming. Like that's, and they've been very clear like 27. Let me. Yeah, we got that. Yes. Hour and a half in. We finally broke Zach. Let me ask.

He's got real regret about a pick. I'm sticking with it. I'm not letting what's going on with the owner. ownership group, like in the sense of direction. Oh, my God. Bill Simmons has his hand up. This is part of my thing. I think this is a really tumultuous year for them.

You have the ownership group where a lot of stuff has not come out yet about what's going out with the kids. And I can't wait to see who does that. You talk about the bus kids. The bus kids, the sale, like, there's a lot of acrimony all over the place. I feel very comfortable saying that. Second. It was a four to two vote among the siblings.

That means two said no. Second, you have LeBron who did all the stuff. last summer. I know. We got him. His head is in his hands. With like, we'll be monitoring this. We'll see if they want to be competitive.

And meanwhile, he has nowhere to go. And he's never been in a situation before. He's been on somebody else's team. And now House made the point. I had sciatica. I had all kinds of backshed in 03 and 04. I was working for Jimmy Kimmel's show. We would have the writers meetings.

And I would just lie in the floor because I couldn't sit in a chair. Like, when it goes down to your knees and your feet, it's a whole other, it does not just heal. in two weeks. That's it. And I don't care how much technology you have. It's like every hit he takes, he's going to feel it. And on top of it, he doesn't have a contract next year.

So you have that. You have Ruiz isn't expiring. You've Gabe Benson is expiring. Max State isn't expiring. I don't feel like they're going to use future assets to try to upgrade. I think they want to just get to 27 and see what's going on with Janus. See what's going on with whoever the other stars are. They took care the most important part, which was the Luka extension.

They did that thing. That was the important thing. Just go nuts this year. Score 33, 34, 35 a game. Do your thing. A year from now, we're going to go all in. They gave JJ. How about the suspicious JJ extension?

Guy was hired a year ago as the head coach. You got an extension. Why did you get an extension? Because they're telling them, like, we don't care if we're a contender this year. Did a good job. I don't think they care if they're a contender this year. You don't think Connect was the steal of the 2024 draft anymore? I think most of the guys they have can't play defense.

And I would include Marcus Smart, who I think can guard bigger guys, but has no chance against point guards anymore. Vanderbilt's going to have to guard everybody in the other team. And we didn't even mention DeAndre Aten. This is the most fired up you've gotten the entire podcast. I just think they have so many variables. Like, DeAndre Aten, two teams with DeAndre Aten have said, please take them.

Like, you can have them. It's he's like a couch that people are just trying to get rid of. So I see on paper, he's already been a suitcase and a couch Yeah, I've just gone through furniture. I just don't think they care about this year. Are they over 500? I think they're... Luca, they have to be between 42 and 45.

I think they're in above 500. I'm not being disrespectful. I'm taking the over. You guys are not talking me out of it. I came in here with my convictions. That a boy. That a boy. I think 48 and 34 is really hard.

Especially if I don't know how many games LeBron's playing. That's it. 47 and 35 because the... So I'm a under. I set my... I'm in under, but I do think there's possible year from no potential.

Nobody believes in you. Nobody believes in the 20, 25, 26 Lakers. Luca, nobody believes in Fit Luca. There's got to be talking about one way or the other. Fit Luca. Fit Luca.

Well, here's the other thing I was thinking about this too. What's like the best case scenario for their season? Like 50 wins? 49 and 33. There's a best case scenario where they can win 52, 53 games.

I mean, you're talking best case. Best case means LeBron's healthier than we expect they get lucky and close. That would be fine. I'm already for it. I'd like to watch LeBron play. I want to be clear. I thought like there could only be one at 47.5 and a half

and you had to go over with one and under and the other. And our next team, the Golden State Warriors, 47.5 is the same number. We just transitioned right to the Warriors. What's wrong with that? They're in the same division. I'm fired up now because you guys are just the East Coast bias. You have to go outside.

It's fine. Bias. Golden State 47. I don't think you could take over for Golden State and the Lakers. Why? You have to pick one. You know who has two thumbs? You know who has two thumbs and took under for the Denver Nuggets for this exact reason?

This guy right here. So you don't get to tell me what I can do on your own podcast. That's fair. Fair enough. Fair enough. God damn. Plus 220 for the division, Gold State. 27-1 for the title. Same odds as the Atlanta Hawks. Minus 420 for the playoffs. plus 130 for the playing house

now I'm fired up plus one 30 for the play they lost Looney they added Al Horford the most beloved Celtic teammate probably in the history

of the franchise and they added Seth Curry they have a veteran good karma good personality professional team

and Jonathan Kaminga tell me who Jonathan Kaminga is on this team in whenever they decide to trade them. Who is it going to be?

Because Jonathan Comingo, they're not entering the playoffs in April of 2026 with Jonathan Cimicca. I had that as one of my questions. Where is he playing in February because it won't be a gold state? I earnestly asked that question because it will help me determine.

I have a big question mark. I don't know what to do with this team. I went through all, I went through all the fake Caminga trades last week. And I don't remember what they all were off to the top of my head. head, but it was actually kind of hard to find one that was realistic. Is marketing not realistic?

Marketing's realistic for me. It would have to be coming and everything else. Remember, he's got that weird base year compensation thing where his salary counts differently for the Warriors than it does for the team that gets him, which is tricky. Doesn't that help with marketing? Because marketing is expensive, isn't it? I feel like it never helps. Well, so right now they would be starting, I would guess, Dremond.

with Kaminga, Butler, Pazemski, and Curry, Horford, Healed, Moody, Jackson Davis, GP2, and Post off the bench. But they have contracts they can put together, they have all their picks, and...

Except one, which they owe you guys. Frisky. Yeah, let's go. Right. That's the Jordan pool. But they can trade a piece of that pick. Is the best case scenario of a 2026 Warriors season,

top six in the West, just being one of the six teams? Yeah, for sure. Yes. Remember, 48 wins was the number to make the play-in in the West last year. And this team, to me, looks like a 48-ish win-win team. Now, you know, the number moved. The market responded to the Lakers injury, to the LeBron's injury.

The Lakers have been docked and the Warriors the beneficiary. Nobody believes in the Los Angeles Lakers is it for me. My hands up. I like it. I don't, yeah, it's good. here's another case for Golden State if you're going to go over they were just really good

the last 30 games of the season they're 22 and 8 they were 8.8 plus net rating they had probably the second best defense in the league for that stretch this is all with Butler and I just think

when you're that good for that long and you're bringing everybody back and you could be reasonably healthy the question and the issue with the overrunners with a team like this is just you got old guys I'm counting on Butler, Curry, and Draymond to play minutes.

They had to go 22 and 8 down the stretch to make the effing play in. They weren't going to make it. Urgency. Yeah. But their team changed in exactly the kinds of ways you would hope it would change by adding Jimmy Butler. Like their turnover rate went way down. Their free throw away went way up.

They're forcing turnovers on defense went way up. It was like they just injected all this stuff they didn't have that came in one guy who can play their cut in. screen and move style of play without any tutorial just walk in and execute also you go from having curry to now curry where there's less attention on him so you're getting a better curry on top of all these other things and also just like we talked about with denver like when curry goes to the bench we actually have like a reliable thing we could this was one of the easiest over's on the board for me i'll press my lock button for the first time oh wow wow this is a lock over

this is amazing yeah so i worry about their playoff like like getting through 82 games plus a grind of a couple playoffs series because they're so old. But I just think the IQ and talent on this team is way over 47. The chemistry is going to be awesome. And I do.

My eyes pop. My eyes pop when all the projection systems like Pelton, Hollinger, are like spitting out huge numbers for this team. If they're all in agreement, I'm like, okay, the Vegas is missing something. Horford, too. Because part of the problem with them,

just the way the league has changed, with just being able to put shooters around Steph to give him more space, right? And you're just flipping Looney for Horford is so massive for him. If Horford has anything left, we can just park him at the top in that post roll.

They were playing post a bunch who I don't even think, I'll do respect to him as not somebody you really want to rely on for 25 minutes a game. But now you have Horford, who then can play defense too. I think they're going to be really good defensively.

And I just like the team. I have a question for you, guys and then well let me ask we have made a pick yet so you want to do that first i know because i have a question i'd like to ask the question first how many games do you think that draymond step and jimmy butler will play together there's 82 games how many of those 82 games will those three guys be how is it also fair to say this will be our last happy jimmy butler season before he'll then be have a year left and then so this next summer will be when he starts up with with the, I don't know what's happened

with my contract. Would you say that to his face? Huh? I probably would actually. I mean, you would like it if you did. Yeah, it's like, hey, Jimmy, can you be happy for a year? Maybe. So, my question is how many? Because that, that is important to,

I think. Or is it not? But doesn't matter. I would say, 60 plus for me. No, I don't think so. I think it's more than that. I was going to say 45 or 50. That all three of them play together? about the 55 maybe. Are you talking about injury or they're going to like staggered?

Both injury and like they're just I'm going higher. Like they're all project to be like 65 game players. So you just start doing the math of how much of those overlap. So if you have two of those three guys for good stretches of the season, we're saying that it doesn't matter.

I feel good. So I feel good like. On the one side with Curry, Kerr has been I don't, Steph looked a little gamey tonight. I'm resting him in Phoenix tomorrow. Like he'll just, he'll always do that. Yes.

On the other side, they really hated being in the play-in last year and just all the miles you have to put on yourselves in games like that. I don't think they want any part of it. I think they want to be in the top six, which makes me... The question for me, though, Zach,

they'd have to jump. OK, C, not happening. Denver, not happening. Minnesota, probably not happening. The Quippers, I'm going to say not happening. Houston, Lakers, San Antonio. So they have to jump two of those to be in the top six, basically. I mean, that's where it gets hard.

They're going to have to be in the 49 range. For me, it's easier. They're not jumping. They don't have to jump San Antonio. They are ahead of San Antonio last year and coming into this year. We just made the case earlier that Wembe's, yeah, has a chance to be like. You guys made that case, not me. But this is why I said when Van Vleet got injured.

Yeah. Like, it's not hard to come seventh in the West. Like, not a lot has to go wrong for your team, for your. to suddenly be in the playing tournament. And Houston fans, like, I'm not saying they will. I think they're going to be a little better than that. But, like, you can't pencil any of these teams below Oklahoma City and Denver into the third seed, like, just like, no-brainer.

If you win 47 games, you're in the play-in. You're looking that you're, like, fighting to make the play-in. I am going to take me over. I want to be on the record with this team. I think they're going to win 48 games. You just fucking copycated us. That was bullshit. We talked it through.

Ridiculous. I like their, you should have come in with the pick. I like Melton. I was cheating. What's cheating? What are you talking about? You guys couldn't talk me out of the Lakers over. I look forward to being wrong on that one, but I'm taking it.

Sticking with it. You mentioned the Houston play-in possibilities? Yeah, what are the odds? Plus 3.30 on Fendell. Kind of intriguing. Before the season starts. Because there's going to be a playing team in the West that we do not think was going to be in the play in. One of these older L-A-L-A Golden State teams is going to just run into a pile of bad injury luck and just like something is going to go wrong for one of these teams.

It's literally the Lakers. Lakers plus 155. Nobody believes in the Lakers. Two more. Contractually, we have to do these last two teams. Contractually, I'm just getting fired up now. The Sacramento Kings, they're over under, is 35 and a half. They are plus 360 for the playoffs.

They, two to one for the play in. They lost La Ravia and Valchunis. They added Schrooter. They added the artist formerly known as Darius Arich and Drew Eubanks. And they lost Keegan Murray for at least the first 10 to 12 games of this season. And they also had some weird off-season stuff with Vavec's daughter being kind of peripherally involved in this Chance Comanche story, which was pretty crazy. In general, I mean, just saying that Kings had a weird anything is kind of, I don't know if I needed to say that. Do they get enough credit for being reprehensibly incompetence act?

oh yeah okay you think they're enough yeah I just want to make sure yeah no there's they're about to get more so we can we can keep going one playoff series appearance since 06 they haven't won a playoff series since 2004 they made the finals ever and they just seem to keep popping up

whenever weird shit happens with the the NBA I feel bad for the Kings fans because we got a taste of how cool it was once upon a time two years ago it feels like 20 would light the beam and then they just decided to reassemble the 2003 Chicago Bulls

was a bonus and that's where we are now. I would like to congratulate Vegas again. I don't know how to do this. I don't know, I'm not a gambling guy. The team in the last three years has won 48, 46, and 40 games. And Vegas is like, yeah, how about 35 and a half? How about you eat that crappy number of Sacramento Kings?

And I could not be more aggressively under even on that low number give me all the kings understock i hate this team i hate this roster i hate de kegan murray's already injured i hate the vibes i hate everything i think this is going to be a year from hell for the kings i'm taking under under under you didn't even mention coach doug christie under could not be like it's a low number and i just could not be more like this this is the year from hell who's playing defense on this team well why are damar de rosen and zach levin on the same team any more ever like i i i hate everything about then a shrewder i don't hate shrewd i don't hate everything i there are parts i don't mind i hate the construction of the team i hate the i just

hate it i'm going under house are there so we'll say utah is there another west team you like less than the kings no no no no this this team it is the epitome of shit alchemy taking gold and spinning it into a giant pile of shit this team had tirie's Halliburton on it. This team had Deeran Fox on it. This team had a beam. I liked lighting the effing beam. That was an amazing

season. I enjoyed that season. I'm sorry. I got a lot. I'm sorry. What happened? No, I'm just like, who's the backup power for it on this team? Doug McDermott. Look at the depth on this team. Nick Clifford's guy step in and play like 30 minutes a game. Like Sarich is going to play. Why? What

is that? Hey, you didn't play at all for the Nuggets. We'll take you. Also, they try to trade Malik Monk. Munk. Lik Munk. I did, it has. Our first one of the season. My first one.

Lik Munk. We haven't even got to many of the Yugoslavian players. They tried to trade him all summer. I kind of like him. There's still time to do it. This team stinks. They try to trade Carter for Kaminga. The whole thing stinks like the garbage bags on the sidewalk that have been out two days too long.

It just stinks. I could not be more happy to take an under on a lot. low number on a team that has been around 500 or over for three straight years. I wrote, here are some of my notes. This is the single dumbest NBA roster. They have no salary cap space.

They have no young studs. They have no under 25 player. You were like, this guy. They have no chance. There's no point for the team. There's no five man. There's no five man rotation. You can put together with the players they have

that could win two games in a playoff series. If they played off, 48 minutes without a bench. I like Keanu Ellis. They messed that one up too. This is just, I hate it. I mean, thank God for these guys that Joe Dumars came back to New Orleans and was able to do his thing because this is the height of ineptness.

And some of the East teams have gotten more competent. Some of the ones that we've had from an in anept standpoint, like Charlotte, Detroit, you know, the Wizards. They were like some really dumb, stupid. And now we just have the nets. and we have the Nets and the Kings and the Pelicans as our big three.

I'm a hard under as well house and I assume you are too. Yes, yes, yes. Three unders. I think this is the Hindenburg of NBA teams this year. Also, like, might be the number one fan base really mad at the team

by like December. Trying to think of a fan base that would be mad at the team. Chicago's hard to beat. Oh, yeah. Wow. Wait till we get to the team. them.

No, but Chicago's, like, just trapped in a loveless marriage. Like, if you're a Chicago Bulls fan, you've no hope every year. Zach, I think you, this was on your podcast, maybe with Nikajesh yesterday. This is a team whose head coach went from Sacramento to a team that I think is going to be in the NBA finals. Didn't take a break. I think that was on your pod. I think I heard that on your pod.

I don't even remember. But, yeah. my brow went from this this goddamn garbage dump to becoming the head coach of a team that will be my pick

for the NBA finals also why did they trade Deeran Fox why did they have to do it when they did it what was the point of that he asked for me he asked okay we'll talk about it after the season de Aaron that's what the max money was for let's try to make it through this year

we'll talk this summer instead they made this crappy trade that nobody liked. Well, just when you think you can't get worse, here's the Phoenix Suns. Over under 31 and a half. It's a low number. New coach, Jordan, not. Yeah, like him.

They lost Kevin Durant and Bradley Beale, among other players. They lost half their team. They added Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green. They have centers now, Mark Williams and Malioch. Malawatch. Malawatch. They say it right.

Malawatch. They have to swap 2006 first with Washington, but might not have to, because Washington's also going to be bad. Plus 680 for the playoffs, plus 200 for the plan. And they're paying Devin Booker.

My math might be off, but I think he makes $143 million this year. Somewhere in there. 133, 143. Their starting lineup is, looks like Mark Williams, Royce O'Neill, Dylan Brooks,

Devin Booker, and Jalen Green. How many minutes a league pass are you going to watch at this team? But over under 50? Oh, a lot. Why? This team intrigues me. Why? Because I think that they have something to prove.

I'm actually interested in this team. I think that this is a curious experiment. You know, Ishpia and... Like how S&M is an experiment? Well, that... Like making a snuff film as an experiment? No, no, no. We don't go that dark.

I'm not that mean. I'm not that. Anyway. Yeah. No, I actually think that this team with Booker is incented to try. Like, it was so dead there last year. The breathing the new life into the thing, I'm actually kind of intrigued. Counter.

They could just suck and keep either their pick or why. Washington's pick and I have a top five pick. They don't have to do anything. That's going to happen, right? Probably might happen. They're probably the third worst team in the West, second or third. I don't think, I don't think they keep, I think that their pick swap is so complicated. I think Memphis has left them in pick swap rights in this like morass of picks.

I'm not sure how their pick swap works. They might, they don't control their own pick. I did so much research for this pod. It's impossible. it's a giant paragraph right here but I just remember talking to people about how Memphis is like almost more or less guaranteed a lottery pick

between Washington's pick and Phoenix's pick in any case I don't care either way I'm going under anyway it doesn't matter to me I do think there's I'm kind of with you where like there's some they got a lot of and I mean this in a good way

like a lot of tweener forwards on the team that I'm interested in sort of like Brooks and O'Neill and Fleming, the kid they just drafted to Nigadoro and done. They trend a little big, which is interesting because they can be switchy and whatever. It's the ball handling behind Booker

that makes me really, really nervous if he misses any amount of time. It's Point Jalen Green or it's like calling in Colin Gillespie for like super duper emergency, 25 minute a game duty that makes me very nervous. The youth of the centers makes me very nervous. Mark Williams missing half of every season

makes me nervous. Mike Williams being frantically traded by his team, even though he's 23 years old. There's some Dylan Brooks, like, flip you for a future pick potential to, which I think he's like a sneaky and interesting trade candidate. Me too. I think I'm with you that there's stuff to, like, not hate here, and the number is very low, but I'm still going under because in this conference, I just have too many questions about the roster.

So I think you're right, Zach, on that, son's, it's super complicated. but it looks like Charlotte's involved, Memphis is involved. They did a use of NERCITS trade where they kind of dumped some sort of protection with something with 26. Were you going over either way? No, I wasn't going over. No, I'm going to correct.

You're going over? I am going over. Yeah, I am. I am. Because 32 and 50 is a terrible record. And, you know, they're still in that lottery. It's absolutely absurd. It's fine.

They won 33 games last year, or 36 games last year. sure, with a roster where they hated, everybody hated each other and the coach. I mean, Coach Bud Light. Can we talk about Jalen Green and Devin Booker sharing a back court together? I think it'll be fine. Fine in what context?

Ask Jordanot. This is a little bit of a... Jordanaut's going to be a good coach. I agree. But this is the place where coaches go to die. And like, you know, I mean, all that has been retread coaches. This is a new young, you know, know we we terrible pick look literally i love it i actually love it monny williams made his mark

with this he went on to the the the ignominy that he deserve but monny williams you know this there's a playbook for ignominy that's a word you mean ignominy say it however you want how about the correct way pull it up on google on the google machine so you're going over for It's just 32 wins. That's a shit team with a shit record. I think they are either the second or worst third, second or third worst West team.

Lock it down. I mean, that's kind of fine. I love that you're going to. I love that you're going over. I am going over. Because there's more talent here than people think. I agree. I just don't think it's enough to go over.

This guy who came from the MVP season in Europe or like he played really good. Yeah, Hayes Davis. Another guy. So Phoenix made the 2021 final. And then they went 64 and 18 in 2022. Yep. Heading into that playoffs.

They were a 64 win team. And Luca broke them. Luca broke them. KD trade, Bealt Trade. They lost all their picks and swaps, plus bridges, Cam Johnson. They lost Aiton. They went from 45, 49, 37 wins. They paid the highest luxury tax for three years.

The Aiton thing, like the NERCIT, they also traded Kamara in that trade. God, right. It's like a sneaky disaster, like trade within a trade. It's one of the great, terrible three-year runs in the history of the league by a front-office ownership, which would be, that would be a fun podcast for a rainy day. Just how many, all-time worst anti-heaters by a team. Just a three-year shit fest. How many different kings stretches could we put?

It'd be tough. You'd have to pick eras. They couldn't overlap the errors. You couldn't take 2012 to 14 if 14 is. 16 was in there. All right, we're going to go backwards and go through all of our picks. Okay. And you guys tell me what the locks are. Oklahoma City, 62 and a half, we all went over.

Lock. I'm locking a 62 and a half over. I'm locking it. It's one of my, how many locks do am I required to lock? You can do, you can honestly do as many as you want, up to 10. I want a minimum number. I don't want that many luck. I am also locking that down.

Yes. Double lock for okay. I'm not locking it. I like the over. You guys talk me into it. Denver Nuggets, 53 and a half. House and I went over. Zach went under. I am a lock on Denver over 53 and a half. Okay. Very exciting. Minnesota Timberwolves, all three of us are over at 49 and a half. Lock it. Okay. I'm joining Zach. I need more locks. I'm joining Zach on the lock for the Minnesota Timberwolves. I'm going to stay away. Portland, 33. four and a half under under under for all three of us yeah Utah 19 and a half under under under

for all three of us I can't believe we all went under on 19 and a half that's congratulations to the utah jose Houston Rockets 52 and a half three unders for us it's borderline lock it oh you're locking it locking it lock in the under wow I want to lock it but I really want to root for the Rockets to be good because I think when he one more really good basketball team. But that seems way too high. I'm going to stay away. San Antonio, 43 and a half.

Over for me, over for Zach, under for house. I'm locking this down. 43 and a half over for me. I'm not joining you. Dallas Mavericks, 40 and a half. Over for me, under for Zach. Over for house. It's a lock for me.

You said that. You looked right into my eyes. but I'm locking it. Memphis, 39 and a half. Under for me, under for Zach, over for house. I thought I went over on Memphis. I went over on Memphis. I'll switch you to over.

I didn't even remember where you going under. Under. New Orleans, 30 and a half. Three overs. Obviously, a franchise you can trust to that level. What can go wrong? Clippers. Three overs.

Unbelievable. someone should just go under on principle Lakers under 47 and a half for me and for Joe House over for Zach Loe. You hear that Lakers fans? Lakers Right into the camera

He says it right into the camera Golden State Warriors 47 and half three overs Locked I already locked it I pre-locked it. Yeah you did lock it pre-locked it I'm not going to lock it because of the old guys

but I am going to lock this next one. Sacramento, 35 and a half. It is 3 o'clock. That's the legacy button. Are you locking that one, too? No, no, no, no. I'm not locking. You're not locking it?

No, I mean, they're so weird. It's a disaster, but I have like four different locks. I have a combination lock. I have a bike lock, I have a chain lock, tire lock, every possible lock. Vagina lock for Doug Christie. That's right. Yeah. Yeah, she, I forgot.

about that story. Phoenix, 31 and a half. Under for me. Under for Zach, over for house. Lock it up. I only have two locks, so I'd like to lock the clippers as well.

We're applying a lock. Wow. Retroactive lock for the covers. It's not retroactive. We're talking about it now. I have Denver, Minnesota, and the clippers as lockovers.

You know what? Since we're going backwards on locks, I'm going to lock in Denver over 53 and a half. Yeah. as well with my guy Nicole Yokic my favorite non-seltic

are you on Yolkich Island I'm Yokic continent that's it for part one of the NBA overrunners part two will be the east it's going up about 12 15 hours after you listen or watch to this one which you can hopefully watch

on Spotify or wherever we get your pods thanks to Chris thanks to Eduardo thanks to Ronick as well and we will see you for part two. Must be 21 plus in President's Select States for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming.

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