The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 1: The West | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

Episode Date: October 13, 2026

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe and Joe House for Part 1 of their 2026-27 NBA Over/Unders pod, as they discuss the win totals for every team in the Western Conference. (0:00) Intro (1:07) New NBA season excitement (9:06) Spurs (20:56) Rockets (29:08) Mavericks (39:06) Grizzlies (46:51) Pelicans (59:41) Thunder (01:07:36) Timberwolves (01:17:09) Nuggets (01:26:49) Trail Blazers (01:33:43) Jazz (01:41:00) Lakers (01:49:25) Warriors (01:56:15) Suns (02:04:20) Clippers (02:08:24) Kings (02:12:21) Recap Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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where you can find the Zach Lowe show with Zach Lowe, who's remote today as well as Joe House, who you can find on Ringar Wise guys as well as Fairway Rowland. And House and I have been doing over-unders. I don't even remember the first time. My podcast started ESPN in 2007. And I think we started to do an NBA over-underers at least that decade. And we've been doing it ever since.

And we're about to do the West first and then the East. Wanted to mention new rewatchables went up yesterday. We did Friday the 13th. Zach has never seen it because it has like horror movies. Stop it. Stop it. I have seen it. And I look forward to the rewatchables about it.

It's been a while, though. Not a Jason movie. I don't know what Jason does in that movie, but I know it involves kids at a campsite somewhere. Yep, it sure does. And we should also mention, speaking of kids in a campsite, Zach Lois writing again. He's got content for kids on a campsite.

Look at that. The fingers work. It's back. He's showing us. The low post newsletter, blog, filings. What do you want to call it? It's a newsletter. And do I regret it already?

Maybe a little bit, but it's too late now. We're going. We're going to give it a shot. The League Pass rankings are coming up in five parts in the next week or so. So we're off and running. baby, let's go. I love that you're going to take it easy on yourself but then just decide to do the opposite.

Well, we're going to spam it early and then we're going to settle into the season. But spam it early, get people, give people a little taste and then off and running. Okay. Well, usually Zach would have come here, but he couldn't come here this week. He had family obligations.

But thanks to modern technology, look at this. We're here. We're in HD. House and I are here. The only thing. Zach's on a TV. He missed some stew. We had stew this week.

I don't want to hear about the, look, We had some stew. My wife is away, so we're just ordering in. Here we go. I had nothing as good as the homemade stew that you had. So we're doing the West first. The East is more fun.

We're going to save that for a second. The East includes a lot of drama, too many playoff teams and House's Wizards, along with my Celtics and the NBA champion next. The West, which we'll get into in a second, is part of a bigger theme I want to talk about really quickly. It's something House mentioned earlier about this next. title and what this means for the season itself. So I wrote back, like going back to 84, 84 finals, Celtics Lakers, and then that next season,

there was just a lot of energy around it, right? Jordan was in the league, Magic versus Bird, the Sixers were still around. It's just like, where are we going? Where are we going? 1991, MJ wins the title, beats Magic. And then that next year, same thing. How far? Where's this Jordan thing going?

What do we have in store? The Pistons are there. The Nixons are there. 2000 finals, Shaq Kobe, they win. Is this going to be a dynasty? Are they going to control the decade? What does Tim Duncan have to say about all this? And it just felt like there was energy going into that year.

2010 finals. Kobe's won back to back. LeBron has gone to Miami. We have a potential lockout coming. We have all of these young stars that are coming into the league. We're just excited heading into 10-11. And then I think this season qualifies, as well, the 26 finals where we have Jalen Brunson, you know, becoming a guy.

We have the Knicks getting the monkey off their back. And then we have a league where it feels like, I don't know, 15 teams feel like they have a chance to make the finals. So do you feel the energy, Zach Lowe? I haven't been this excited for a season in quite a while. I have already blown past my personal record of longest time watching preseason basketball. I'm diving in. I'm dabbling. I'm flipping between games depending on what team is playing like a.

semi-real lineup. I can't wait for opening night at Madison Square Garden against the Sixers. It's going to be absolutely bonkers. Is it going to be the most expensive regular season game? I don't know ever. I mean, what even compares to this? It's going to be insane. Yeah, we have, and we have the Luca gets his own team. We have the spurs, potentially as villains. We have OKC trying to get back on the horse. We have Yockech trying to protect this incredible era he had. We have Durant. trying to basically get shit together for his last year. We have the Philly situation.

We have Janice in Miami, Tatum with his own team. You could just keep going and going. House, what's your favorite thing, a big picture about this season before we get into the West? It's definitely already the drama around the Knicks and the capacity for that team to defend its title. I mean, I know we're about to sit here and spend 11 and a half hours going through the regular season going over.

over every single team. But I'm ready for the playoffs already. I want to start. I'd like to fast forward. There's a small part of me that I just want to see Boston and Philadelphia and this New York Knicks team. I want to see Oklahoma City. I want to see what becomes of Minnesota.

And I want to see them all in the high leverage playoff context. But the rich tapestry of the regular season awaits us. And to the point that Zach, made. The anticipations at an all time high, all time in my experience. Like, there was no offseason. The influx of talent by way of that draft class and the way that the Summer League went. And Zach just said it, these preseason games are nuts. People are dying to get into the preseason games. There's great crowds for these preseason games. It's been phenomenal. Jaylon Brunson's on Saturday Night Live. I mean, the cultural icon that is Jalen Brunson and

this next team propelling us right in. I mean, let's go. Lamello Ball has made the Timberwolves from Moody to Happy. Woody to Giddy, I think. We traded Moody to Giddy. They only traded two guys. And I'm guessing Nas Reid wasn't the Moody one. Ooh.

Okay. We're going to start with the Southwest. We should mention with the over-unders, there's an incredible, incredible, incredible variable this year that we have no idea how to calculate. and it is the new tanking rules. We're basically the bottom three teams will have two ping pong balls instead of three.

Four through ten will have three. And then after that, I don't even know what the rules are after that. But we will not have tanking in the same way we did. We had tanking for 30% of last season. We had nine teams that did not care by mid-February. And this year, I'm not sure how this plays out, Zach Lowe. Did you factor that into your overrunners?

I think if you had asked me the same question new ass house like what are you most excited about the season other than the obvious headline teams that the players that have changed teams like yonis i think people are even underestimating what is c-change this is going to be in the nb a nb a like no one is going to be trying to lose on purpose no one is going to be sitting guys for random games in february in march in fact it's the opposite the bad teams the worst teams have an incentive to try to beat up on each other to get out of the bottom three and then you have all these other complications we're going to talk about eventually when we get to these teams of like, well, what if a team doesn't control its first round

pick? Does that sort of reverse the incentives a little bit because they don't care where it falls or they don't want it to be the number one pick? Because you also can't get the number one pick two years in a row and you want to be able to get it when it's your turn to actually use your pick. And what if you're 11th and you have no chance in the playoffs, are we going to see a high-end tank, which we've never seen before? Like if you're Golden State, you have you're 30 and 40 with 12 games left. And it's like, ah, are we doing anything? Probably not.

Hey, Steph, how about some golf? Can we send you to New Zealand? I don't think you have to ask Steph twice. Southwest, San Antonio, we're kicking off with them. They made the finals last year. Not sure if you guys saw. They are 60 and a half is the over-under for them. They won 62 games last year.

They went from 22 to 34 to 62. last 30 games last year they're 26 and 4 house they are for the conference plus 145 for the title plus 270 one seed plus 140 my big question for you Zach Lowe

yeah would the spurs have been better off just not making the finals last year in what sense like too much too soon we're ahead of our skis was it productive for them to go through that whole experience that seem to rip some scabs and raise some questions that Maybe it wouldn't have been there if they just had a feel good, lost in seven in OKC.

Absolutely not. They made the finals. They lost. They felt pain. They felt like right away what it's like to be on the biggest stage. Victor Webbenyama somehow became a villain like overnight. My daughter, my 11-year-old daughter referred to him just yesterday over dinners. We were talking about the NBA as the jerkasaurus.

That's her new nickname for him. So she's all in on when me is the villain. How does he come up with that house? You need the... Jerkosaurus. You need the mind. And like, look, Wembe's ready. And so if Wembe's ready and the young guards looked pretty ready other than Steph

Castle's turnoveritis in the middle of the playoffs, particularly against Minnesota, I think no harm, no foul. Like, what's the hold up? Let's go. I think I agree with that, but where do you stand house? I definitely agree with that. I mean, part of the narrative of last season's playoffs was a lot of us old heads saying, yes, this is San Antonio Spurs.

story is cool and yes, they look absolutely loaded, but let's see them in some high leverage situations. And that Minnesota series kind of gave us that indication like, okay, welcome to the playoffs. They ran their way right through Portland, no problem. But welcome to the playoffs with this cast of characters. And they were up to the challenge. I mean, the games that San Antonio lost were,

were Wembe missing the games, half the game because of the foul, you know, the... You don't forget about two, historic choke jobs. Don't forget about all the Harper Fox stuff that came out of that series. Don't forget about Kelden Johnson

by the end of the playoffs basically being unplayable. I do think there are more questions that came out of the finals. You're talking about the seasoning of the Spurs though. Yeah. And that I think, you know, net net,

that's all extremely positive for the development of that core. I don't think the Kelton Johnson thing was positive. I don't know what, I didn't feel like he was playable in the finals. And I think the Fox thing,

is a big referendum of where he's going to be. And it's probably the thing to watch. How do they, I talked last week on my pod, you have two, Zach, about if Harper is just, if this becomes a 1999 Kobe situation with Harper, but they basically can't keep him off the floor, what does that lead with the decisions they make at the end of these games? Do they just play three guards at the end of the games?

Is it three guards with Tobias Harris? So we haven't mentioned yet. Or do they just bench foxed at the end of the games and just brace for him being unhappy? I mean, more options with talented players seems like a good problem to have. I don't know how well the three-guard lineup will really fit Mitch Johnson did not want to play it much last season. Right. I think he'll probably just have to play it more of this season to get Harper on the court more.

Tobias Harris is not a bit player to me. I mean, that's the antidote to Kelton Johnson being unplayable as you put it in the finals. It's like a way better version of that exact player. More talent on hand. Harrison Barnes is still here as the safety net. Like everyone's back and they added Tobias Harris. who was like a 20 point of game score for a hot minute for the Pistons in the playoffs. So I think they're ready. I think last year was good for them.

I see no downside. Yeah, I agree with that. And Cornhead Unplayable, too, is the other thing we learned. Yeah, but you're just describing a particular matchup in the finals. Like, it's not linear. We're not going from the finals to game one of the regular season, trying to win the finals again. What were they're trying to do is build a team that survives this 82 game schedule and is ready for next season's postseason.

And that will include experimentation. It'll include versions of these players that weren't available. Fox was hurt. Fox was hurt the whole playoffs and in the finals. And his effectiveness was definitely diminished. But if he's in combinations of players, they can experiment. They're good enough to experiment and still kick ass all season long. And I think that's what we'll see.

Like I'm not prepared to bite down hard on anything that we saw from the OKC matchup or the Knicks matchup and say, well, this is the challenge that's in front of the spurs. No, I think that it's organic. And they will experiment. They learn some lessons. And that's why the seasoning was so important. The biggest challenge for them is going to be what they faced in the finals, the last five minutes of games and closing games.

Who's going to have the ball? Who's going to create good shots? And how are they going to finish stuff? And my guess is that's Harper. And honestly, it might have been Harper last year and they just didn't really want to rip the bandit off and just do it.

And that's my question. What do you do when you're in the same situation you were in the finals last year against a really experienced team that knows what they're doing? And you have a team that just hasn't enough reps with it yet. LeBron or Tobias Harris? You want to talk that out for 20 seconds? Should they have made a run at LeBron?

Would he have even been interested? If you're going to upgrade with a veteran, why not go for LeBron? would that have been bad for him? Would Wembe have not? Did you do any reporting on that, Zach? Not really, because it would never struck me as a real possibility that LeBron was going to consider it.

And I'm not, you know, I mean, look, like, LeBron's better than Tobias Harris. I mean, he's an answer to the question that you're posing about who has the ball and crunch time as your lead decision maker. You know, are the Spurs the right team on their trajectory, given their age to sort of upend everything for a year, two years to take like a detour into LeBron? world. I don't know that they would really have been that, that interested in doing it, but I don't really know. I heard they were not interested in even exploring it. That wouldn't surprise me if it were true. I'm fine with the Tobias Harris ad. And all of these

things are wonderful problems to have. Is it worth noting that Deeran Fox was the clutch player of the year like three years ago? He was supposed to be the answer to this question. We were letting the beam back then. And I think he will be part of the answer. Like I think we're letting an an injury riddled and below average playoff run highlighted by one absolutely horrific decision at the end of game four when he went for the layup and he didn't have to. This is still a guy made the All-Star team last year. He's not like a scrub that is on the way out of the league. Yeah.

So that's the glass half full case is Dierrin Fox with a chip on a shoulder. That's the glass. That's the glass. There's a lot. Deer and Fox with a chip on a shoulder, Harper a year older, Castle a year older. And then Wemby now having tasted his own blood. and going on a mission.

Well, I don't know. Whenby on a mission, what does that look like? That, to me is the answer. I don't know. What does it look like? He seems feisty already this year. He's like not. He was feisty in the playoffs.

He's good. He seems pissed off about everything, which I like. I think that's the reason that there was never a serious consideration of LeBron. They have their own circus. They have their Wembe Circus. They're very comfortable with their Wembe Circus. They do a great job managing the Wembe Circus. They go around stadium to stadium.

And everybody wants to come see the phenomenon that is Wembe and by extension, this Spurs team. And they can live inside that skin. And Tobias Harris fits in. By the way, we have a lot of circuses this year. We sure do. There's a Philly circus comes to town. We have the OKC. We have the Luca circus.

We have Janice in Miami. There's a lot of circuses. All right, 60 and a half. Instinctively, I wanted to just say, oh, that's an over. And then you just start factoring how deep the league is and that there are no easy wins. Where did you go in this, Zach? Oh, I get to lead off. Thank you. It's a big number.

They won 62 last year in a league that, as you mentioned, was super watered down. I do think they benefit a little bit from the West being a shallower conference than the East. I mean, your schedule doesn't tilt to your conference as much as people think. It's still 52 and 30. But that matters on the fringes a little bit. And I just think, like, I just think they're significantly better them and Oklahoma City than the next tier of teams below them in the West and forget about the next teams below that. So I, despite, you know, the new tanking rules and that wins are going to be harder to come

by across the board, they were 35 and 15 against above 500 teams last year. That's a number that I look at a lot for this purposes. Like how real was your season or how much were you just beating up on the dregs? I think they're hungry. They're deep. They have arguably the best player in the league. I went over despite the fact that it's a huge number in a deep, deep league overall and a good conference, I went over.

I am going to predict Haas's answer. Go ahead. I'm a slight over. He's going to do this. Go ahead, House. I'm not doing that, and I might not do it the entire 11-and-half hours. I'm just a 0.5 whiff of an over. They're over, and there are wins to consume in the West,

because there are teams that won mid-40s, you know, low-40s, mid-40s in the West that I don't think are anywhere near that this upcoming season. So I think that they will hoover up some of those wins. And I just think that the experience of making it to the finals for this group, and especially what it meant in terms of the development of the depth for that team, they're loaded. And I have no problem at all going over. I'm a slight over.

I always worry about the Wembe injury potential just because he's super tall. Yeah. And you just never know. Totally reasonable. Can I just state for the record? 146 and 64 were his three games played seasons. That's fair. That's fair.

I mean, I just want to point out that you made fun of House for going slide over and you just led with not deadpaned, like I'm going slide over. Slide over. I think they're in the 61 to 62. Okay. That's a win. One seed plus 140. I actually think they will not be the one seed.

But the number I kept looking back at their last 30 games last year, 26 and 4. And even if you're throwing in some tanking teams, that's still, 22 and you know 22 and 7 22 and 8 yeah and they're going to be

all year older and better and I like the Billy Donovan add too I thought that was good they really they lost Kelly Olinick they added Tobias Harris

that's all they did those two things and we didn't even mention we didn't mention Carter Bryant who I think I'm just intrigued by him as a little

little toy for them But that's an example of the point I was trying to make about the depth. He got genuine playoff minutes, real highest leverage possible minutes. And that's really good for where he is in his career. Terris Reed Jr. also getting like every single rebound in the preseason. I'm putting it in my back pocket. It's like if I need a third center for whatever reason, like this guy looks like he's ready to stop up some minutes.

I think the bigger point we'll get to when we talk about OCCC is there's two teams that are just way more talented than all the other teams. and to not go over with either of them, I think is pretty foolish. All right, so we are all over for that one. Next one. No locks, by the way. Nobody wants to lock that down?

I'm not locking at 60 and a half. Yeah, I'm setting tight for a minute. The Houston Rockets. They're over under is 48.5. Spent some action on that, Zacklow. It's been little bumps. It's been going up. Five to one for the division,

14, 1 for the conference, 27 to 1 for the title. Last year, there were 52 and 30. they are bringing back Fred Van Vleet. They added Marcus Smart. They added Bruce Thornton. And most important, they added bearded Reed Shepherd. Bearded Reed Shepherd.

He just looks like he's the young dad in a horror movie that moved into the house and then starts going into the attic and there's evil spirits up there. He's just kind of a more dangerous vibe. I like it. Yeah. I think he might have needed facial hair more than just about any player in the league. Very excited for him. my big question

I'll start with you on this one house okay could any star flip his career legacy more than Durant if he carried the rockets to the finals this season wow I'll give you some other possible

legacy flipping stars go ahead Nicola Yokic winning a second title joel and beat making a pass round two Jason Tatum carrying a Boston team to the one seat and back to the finals

Janice rehabilitating and rejuvenating Miami and dragging them to the finals LeBron in Philly throwing the Sixers on his back or the one thing that will never happen but I have to mention anyway, James Hardin finally figuring out in year 28

and carrying the caps to a finals What would be the biggest legacy flip out of all those guys for you? To me it's Embed even though Because you've given up on his legacy. Well, and he's never been to a conference finals. Like that there's no legacy. He is, he will, you know, until he actually makes it to an NBA finals, it'll be promise unfulfilled with that guy.

Okay. And a league MVP to never make a conference finals or a finals. What's your answer, Zach? Well, I'll throw out some other names for you. He didn't mention Luca. What if the Lakers are way better than expected and he actually gets his first MVP after being like among the preseason favorites for five or six years? And I'm just going to say like, I'm just going to say it.

What if the Raptors make the finals again with Kauai Leonard? What if Kauai just has Toronto and then eight years later, another Toronto, and all in between is planting trees and Boingold Wireless and all this stuff? Does he become like an honorary parliamentarian in Ontario by that point? So those are, those are. We just have to start a podcast talking about his legacy. Just every episode is the new legacy chapter. I am, I just want to say, I am encouraged and heartened that I looked at my timer. we got over 20 minutes before the L word was dropped on this podcast.

I haven't in other spots too. There's going to be more legacy talk later. And I was happy that it was about Kevin Durant because I do think it's a weird thing to say about a top 12 all-time player who's a two-time finals MVP. But he does feel like we've talked to Adelziu about it. He is a superstar in need of the right Coda to his career. And I think this team, I don't know that anybody out of those. West could make the finals other than the top two unless there's a major injury.

But this team has a chance to at least be a very feel-good sort of CODA this year for him. Yeah, we have three punchers chance if a bunch of things go right West teams that I think could make it. And this is one of them. Durant, since the 2018 finals, how many playoff games do you think he's played house? Since what year finals? Since he went down in the, I'm sorry, in the 2019 finals. So he played with Brooklyn and played a bunch of games.

a playoff Phoenix and Houston last year. Yeah. You're asking how many playoff games has he played in? I'll give you the answer, 32. Okay. I would have guessed in the 20s.

He's had two playoff series wins in the 2020s. He has 17 straight years of 25 points a game. Yeah. 17. Yes. All timer. He has played over 50,000 minutes combined, regular season playoffs,

which makes him one of 23 guys ever. And if he has a pretty normal, normal season. He would be in the top 12 for that. And Zach is right. There's no CODA for everything that's happening here. This is just kind of drifting along. I will say, this team got rid of Finney Smith, Acogee, and Jeff Green, and added healthy Fred Van Bleet, Marcus Smart, Bruce Thornton, and bearded Reed Shepard. I'm going to say it again. They're just going to be better. The vibes are going to be better. They have actual guards. They can run an offense. They're not going to have a burner scandal. The return of Stephen Adams. You have to mention Stephen Adams. You have to mention Stephen

And healthy Stephen Adams. Should have mentioned that as well. For as long as he's healthy, a healthy Stephen Adams is crucial to the scene. Hey, Zach. Yeah. They have some draft pick shit that they can fuck around with here. That's another variable that you got to consider with all these teams.

Who's got the assets to make a win now trade or who wants to be a seller and who would be motivated either way. They can do whatever they want. I would like, as we do at our house, to institute a everyone hands their phones over at the door when we come to the practice facility policy. for the Rockets, but... Put them in a little cubby or something? How many phones?

Does KD have to turn in? All of them? Does he get patted down? He has an iPhone. He has a Google Pixel. So they have a Brooklyn swap pick that could be super tasty, right? That could end up being

the number one pick in the draft for all we know. They also have an unprotected Phoenix pick. Phoenix will get to them, but they'll, you know, they're going to be somewhere between 35 and 45 wins. But they have capital. They have a couple. expirings and things to do.

They have Shepard, who I think would have interest, Blee's son and expiring, so they could make some moves. I factored that into my over of 48.5. I think, to me, this is a pretty easy over. I'd be really surprised that this team didn't get into the 49 to 53 range. Yeah, I can't come up with the scenario. I'm actually just confused by this number. They won 52 games last season.

They're regular season merchants. I mean, EMA, even with, with the enormously confusing effort to replace the point guard position last year after FV got hurt in the summer. And not getting to Sunmu or Kobe Wade, anything. All those guys were available. And the super weird end of game stuff where it was like they were playing hot potato. I never understood it.

I never understood why KD wasn't just the guy closing games out. Even with that, they won 52 games because the roster is mother effing good and it got better. So it's an over for me. And I'll go ahead and just say it out loud. It's a lock. It's an overlock. This number was like 47 and a half until people started jumping into the market. I am locking it down too, Zeklo.

The only case against it is the offense with Fred Van Vleet back and a healthier roster and all that is still amounting to like, all right, there's eight on the shot clock. Can Alper and Shengun like snow plow to the rim and throw something up and we can rebound it? but I would like to make it universal. This is an official lock over for me. No doubt about it, 48 and a half is too low. The Rockets are going to win a lot of games. And the other thing,

we mentioned earlier, but the West just isn't good enough. Right. And there's really only five teams I like in the West. So I just feel like if you look at the history of the league and the standings and basketball reference, anytime we have like a top heavy conference, it's usually going to be in the high 40s.

I will add the addendum to my only case against it being the offense looking that way. is if it does look like that, I think there's like, is there some Mimeo dooka noise 20 games into the season? What does that do? What does that do? Is it a hot seat noise or crock pot noise? I care remember which is worse.

The crock pot is better, right? For the coach, it's simmering for a longer. Cering. It's simmering for a little bit. I think hot seat noise, but I don't think that's going to happen. I think they're going to be an elite defensive team and elite rebounding team and a good enough offensive team. So that's also lock it up.

Kevin Durant's on this team. His teams never have coaching issues. Dallas Mavericks. They're over under, it's 33 and a half. They are plus 250 for the playoffs, plus 135 for the playing house. Their 2007 draft pick goes to Charlotte

unless it falls into the top two, which is conceivable because they could be in the four to ten range, win the lottery or finish second, and get to keep the pick. They have new coach named Dusty May. we'll go into college stuff in a second. They were 26 and 56 last year.

There were 7 and 23 in their last 30. The big question, Zach Lowe. What if Cooper Flagg becomes the greatest start of the year at 19-year-old NBA player we've ever had for just that season? Yeah, this was one of the toughest lines for me. And Mahoney and I were talking about this team yesterday. And we said, like, Kyrie's back.

He looks very good. in the pre, is one preseason game that I've seen him play. One would assume there'll be some rust coming off in ACL. Maybe they'll, they'll give him days off now and then. But still, if they have two. It's been 18 months, though. Or maybe even 19 months. Yeah.

So he might be 100%. If they, if they have two of the top 25 players in the league, is that not grounds for an over all on its own? And is it just everything after that is just over-complicating a discussion? Because I do think Cooper Flag is going to be that. this season. He keeps growing, I guess he'll shoot better. He's just an awesome, awesome basketball player. The context of this roster is a little better for him with Kyrie around to take some of the ball handling load to be an elite elite elite, elite off ball shooter when Flag has the ball.

The rest of it's a little mucky. I'd feel really, really good if like I knew anything about Derek Lively's prognosis at all. And I don't. But that the case for the over is just, is it just as simple as two of the top 25 guys play on one team? That's generally like a 500 And even beyond that, if you look at the 24 Mabbs blueprint that made the finals, two elite offensive players, some fun role players, and just kind of in games every night and then able to take stuff in the last five minutes, it feels like a playing team in the house. It feels like an easy two-for-one or three-for-one trade partner because you look at all the stuff they have.

Like, you know, Morris Johnson's going to be, I think, good right away for them. They still have PJ Washington. They still have Najee Marshall. They got Aldama. They rolled the dice with Risha Shea. They have Max Christie. They have a lot of wings. They do.

They have two centers. And if Kai replays 70 games, you know, I find it hard to believe they're not going to win 34. But it comes back to Flag because he was 23, 7, and 5 last year. And if you just talk about best guys heading into a 19-year-old season, it's basically Luca and LeBron and Wembe are the three that put up, like pretty crazy stats when they were teenagers for at least half the year. So if he's 27, 7 and 7 this year, basically LeBron season, which I think is possible.

You said 27 points a game? He's 23 last year. My goodness. Yeah, but I mean, that was end of season, 50 piece. He's going to have the ball a bunch. All right, let's give him 25, 7 and 7. Okay, that makes me feel better. And I don't know why they would necessarily tank because there's no tanking in the same way.

And if anything, they want to be in the 4 to 10 range. So why wouldn't this being over? I was super relieved to hear Zach say that this number gave him a hard time because this is exactly the way I changed my pick five times. I think that Dusty May doesn't want to show up and they didn't hire Dusty May to come in and lose games, right? They're going to try and win. And there's too many, they're too deep. There's too many professional basketball players. Now the-

Well, not only too deep, but they have a guy who's going to really give a shit. every night in Cooper Flag. Yeah. He's at the stage. He just wants to prove that he's really good at basketball night after night. And isn't the version of Kyrie that's in Kyrie's own best interest, the version that is helping set up Cooper to be the best version of Cooper,

the guy that is a tremendous facilitator, a leader, right? Well, you mentioned this on the pod yesterday with Mahoney. This team could barely get into an offense. For the first two months of the season, they were using flag almost to just like take all your lumps now it'll all pay off for you down the road and now they have like a real guy who will be able to dribble the ball up and get into sets and all kinds of things and this i got to say i'm kind of excited to watch them too i want to see flag and kairri together uh i want to mention the college coach curse though uh oh yeah last really good

successful i came in right away and was good at coaching was brad stevens And that was 2013, where he just came in. It was like, oh, this guy has it. Donovan came in and took over and experienced O'KC team. That was 2015. And Quinn Snyder came in in 2014 and did okay. But we've also had John Kyle Perry. We had Rick Petino.

We had Tim Floyd. We had your guy, Leonard Hamilton, who I think was the worst Wizards coach of your lifetime of mine since I've known you. It's not on him. Lon Kruger, Mike Montgomery. we had Mike Dunlap going from Loyola Merriman to the Bobcats. Fred Hoyberg, the immortal Fred. And we had John Beeline, who was our last college to pro coach in 2019.

This has not happened for seven years. And there's a reason for it because this league's really good and it's really deep and there's a lot of talent. And it's always good to have, like you'd much, much rather have like a Sean Sweeney, who's been in the war, who's gone against all these dudes who has a reservoir of other people. and, you know, to just come in blind to this, Zach, what are, what are you hearing on this? I think, you know, the buzz on Dusty Mae is all good. There is a learning curve, no question about it. They drafted one of his players in Marez Johnson Jr.

It's not my biggest concern. I think a coach is a coach as a coach. I mean, you're going back way, way back with some of those names that that failed transitioning to the NBA. It has been a while since John Beeline. Remember the story about John Beeline calling his, naming his plays after animals and the, and the players laughing at Texas? Zebra, zebra, Candibar.

I don't worry about the dust. The band bear. I worry about Derek lively, and I worry about the, a lot of the supporting cast, you mentioned I like a lot. A lot of them play more or less the same position. And the shooting is iffy.

And just like, we like the top two guys a lot. The drop off to the third best guy on the team is like pretty severe. And so that's the downside of all the depth is like, who's the third guy? I think this is actually a really, really tough line. I was a little bit surprised how much I struggled with it. So where did you go?

I'm going to, I think, Zag from you guys and go under by this teeniest, teeniest, teeniest of hairs. I don't feel good about it. I wouldn't bet it 33 and a half. It feels, it feels low to go under. I think you actually nailed the tanking incentive. I think they actually are incentivized not to tank to try to get their pick into the best possible position to be the one or two pick and keep it. but I think I just have to hedge against some possibility of a Kyrie sell high trade to a contender at some point in the season.

I don't know if that will happen. I don't think there's any plans to do it currently. It just feels like something that's going to be potentially in the ether. So I got a hedge against that. I'll take the under. What do you think Patrick Dumont wants to do? But as he's assessed this and analyzed it? One of the more awkward-looking owners to ever just populate the NBA, sit-in-court side,

I was proud of him for giving an interview, I think to the athletic this week in which he just did not embarrass himself. I thought that was a step in the right direction. It's always good when somebody running a team, you're psyched that they didn't embarrass themselves. But I don't feel great about this pick. I couldn't be higher on Cooper Flagg.

I like a lot of the fringe moves they made in the offseason. I still am going to take the under. I don't feel good about it, though. House. Don't change your pick. Don't be a coward. I already wrote it down. It's an over.

I'm going to play. I'm not going to say, This, this, this, this, it's so close, but 34 wins is attainable. I am a slight over because I think Kyrie is incentivized to have a really good season. He has a player option next year for 42. But if he plays well this season, that could end up being high 40s, maybe even low 50s for two years. And he hasn't played basketball in a year and a half. I like the stuff I've heard about him.

It seems like his head's in a good spot. And I think it's going to be really fun to watch him in flag. But the big thing to me, this is a bet on flag. I just think this guy has a chance to be really special. And the history of the league is if somebody's really special, even at a young age, they're going to start dragging into some wins. And that's the difference between 30 and 35. I have them in the mid-30s.

The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by Fandul. We are spending this two-part extravaganza trying to figure out what we actually believe with this NBA season, who's winning the title, who's the best MVP pick, which teams are going over, which teams are going under? which predictions are we going to pretend we never made by February. Fandole has a reward stack built exactly for all of these questions and thoughts. You get a stack of rewards to use on NBA futures.

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or visit CCPpG.org slash chat in Connecticut. A team everyone's too high on the Memphis Grizzlies. Over 30 and a half. Playoffs plus 420. Playing plus 200. They do not. Oh, they have their own pick plus the second best first of Utah, Minnesota, and Cleveland. They were 25 57 last year, but they were 7 and 33 in the last 40. And the big question, Joe House, because Zach and I've already talked about this team on our podcast, is everyone too high in this team?

Is the bandwagon too filled? All the basketball pod people, all the nerds, this has just become a sexy, sexy, sexy lottery team, basically. What do you think? So the market reflects the sentiment that you're sharing. This was in the 28 and a half range. It went up two wins, Zach. It's all the way up to 30 and a half.

And I think we've reached peak market on this team because I look at this roster. I know what they're going to do, which is they have a roster that is going to play hard as hell. And they are going to try and win all of their home games because they, Memphis and Utah, you know, very quietly under the radar because they were tanking the last couple years. Tremendous home court advantages. The fans in those two cities are really, you know, passionate and do it. The team does respond to it. You're just taunting Russell Westbrook right now. I just don't know if I can get there.

Even with all of the proper enthusiasm for Boozer, how is this team going to score? And is Zach Ety going to finally play 65 games? So he's the swing guy. Yeah. If you plays 20 games, this isn't under. If you play 65 games, I think it's it over. Right. West playoff locks for me,

Zach, OKC, San Antonio, Denver, Minnesota, and Houston. And then we'll have a Pacific team, TBD. And there's this next group here, where we're going to have two playoff teams from this group. It's going to be, let's say the Lakers are the Pacific team. Phoenix, Dallas, Portland, Golden State, Memphis, and Utah. We will have two playoff teams out of that group. My guess is Memphis is going to play hard and be free.

for a while before they decide what to do. But I think the dudes they have on this team are all going to give a shit. Even like I talked, I went on in group chat two weeks ago. I was talking like, they just kind of ended up with Jeremy Grant. And you go, oh man, Jeremy Grant, bad contract. It's like, he averaged 19 in game last year. He's a real player. They turned Caldwell Pope and a Jeremy Grant.

That's an upgrade. They added Camboozer who's going to be 19 and 10 every night. You can run offense to him. You can go to him in crunch time. They added Isaiah Stewart for basically. basically nothing. They're going to have size, toughness. I don't love the point guards, obviously, because they really don't necessarily have a starting point card. They have tied Jerome and Pippin. But there's a toughness and a grint grind old school,

throwback feel that I just, I got seduced by. So for me, it's an over 30 and a half. What do you have, Zach? I would, I'd like to apologize for, I think, contributing to the start of the Memphis Grizzlies hype train, if not actually starting it, like two months ago by saying when it was 28 and a half, I would just absolutely hammer the over. I think this team is going to be. You're zagging on your Zig? I'm jogging, I think.

Your dog. You're like 18 deep. They had to wave guys like farewell DeAngelo Russell to just get the roster in order. They're going to be super annoying to play against. E.D. is a complete game changer when he plays. I don't know when he'll play. I couldn't be higher on Camboozer. as like an immediate win now, high impact rookie.

He was the guy I knew you were going to love heading into the, heading in the drive. He's a total Zach low guy. And then I watched their first couple of preseason games, including a win over the Hawks. And I was like, ooh, there really is just like a lot of Ty Jerome happening. And when there's a lot of Ty Jerome happening, it's a lot of like floater, floater on the way down, leaning floater, tilting floater. And they go in at a crazy rate, at least until the playoffs, because Ty Jerome is really good. But you nailed the shot creation issue from the perimeter that I think they're going to run into. And just like, is there a top 50 player in the NBA on the team?

I think boozer and Edy, like one of them being available all the time, it could be, could be a facsimile of that. But you know what? Sometimes you got to own your own words. I just feel like they're going to be deep and annoying and have a good home court advantage. And they're going to make up for a lot of these deficits in different ways. I like YSelo as a coach. Fuck it. Over.

30 and a half over. Fuck it. What do I have to lose? Nothing. Zach Lowe over. Bill Simmons over, Joe House? I'm not going against Verno. I can't do it. Verno and Memphis deserve a team. What kind of analysis is that? Well, you, I'm not going against Verno is your analysis? I offered my opinion at the top. I mentioned the home court advantage.

I mentioned the depth and that they, I think, identity-wise, are a team that I solo wants. This is like the version of, you know, roster construction. And you guys mentioned some of the crucial additions. I like the Quentin Post edition just as a 10th man. Right. And if Lopez gives them anything. And they have prepared pretty, as well as you could possibly prepare for like, all right, Eadie is probably going to miss 30 games and play 22 minutes a game when he plays.

Let's stock up on big guys. Boozer can play some five for them. I think we are a little over our skis, but I will still, take the over. And I do think it's worth asking. What does it over mean for Chris Vernon's legacy? If we're going to talk about legacy talk, I mean, what's Verno's legacy to this point? What are his 25 job ranchers? He's on Ypresi right now mean for his legacy. Listen, if we had the old tanking rolls, this would be an under for me. Just point blank. Sure. I think the new tanking rolls and the fact that being in the four to 10 is desirable and where you want to be means all these teams are going to give a shit for a month and a half longer than they would have. So it's an over. I have a bonus. question for you. Top five

2017 is most likely to be in a massive brawl this season. Here are my rankings. Number one, Memphis. Why? Number two, Phoenix. Oh, interesting. Dylan Brooks, just by himself, thanks to number two.

And bridges alongside of them? Number three, Detroit. Yep, still, Ron Holland. Ron Holland is still there. And he's upset that he's not in the top two. Number four, Orlando. Kind of get dickish in games. They'll get a little feisty.

I don't think they want that smoke, though. They're a little dickish. And then number five, Houston, just because Stephen Adams is back. Draymond Green would like a word here at some point. Just over overlooked again, Dramon Green. Has Draymond been in a bench clearing brawl? I mean, if we're bench clearing, no. Or like a five on five, like whatever happened in Charlotte, Detroit last year.

Is he been in his version of that? I feel like no. I guess not. He usually kind of escalates it, but it never actually happens. Yeah, he escalates to the point where he gets kicked out, and so there isn't any actual risk to him getting punched right in the face. Yeah. Memphis, though.

I mean, Edy Boozer, Grant, Coward, and Jerome, that's just my kind of league pass team. Right. I get it. Isaiah Stewart, Wells, Spencer, who was really good last year, Pippin, Post, Gigi Jackson. I like this team. It's a fun league pass team.

over. All three of us over. Great. All right. Last but not least. And last but least, the New Orleans Pelicans, 28 and a half is the overender. They are plus 650 for the playoffs, plus 310 for the plan. Two thousand, twenty seven draft pick kind of interesting. They can keep their pick or they can just switch it from Milwaukee's pick, which I would recommend right now. And then Atlanta somehow ends up with the worst of those two. They have a new coach, Jamal Mosley, who for some reason got snapped up right away after a very strange

Orlando season. They were 26 and 56 last year. Notable in their last 40 with nothing to play for it because they never picked. They went 17 and 23. Which could give us a little foreshadowing of where the league is going with the non-tanking stuff.

They're going to start Missy, Zion, Murphy, Herb Jones, and Dejante Murray. they're going to bring Queen Bay, Matherin, and Fears off the bench and the artist formerly known as Jordan Poole. My big question for you, Zach Lowe. Will Zion hold this team hostage for the entire 2020s? Is this just going to be like a kidnapping show on Apple TV,

but with a basketball player and a franchise? I mean, that would imply that he has the power and stature at this point in his career to hold any team hostage other than by being, as you put it, in the Zion zone, where he's too good to trade or too risky for a team. Too good to trade from New Orleans perspective, too risky to trade for another team. It's the Bermuda triangle of NBA.

It's the Zion zone. We can't give you. And nobody's offering anything for you. What do we do? He only has one more non-guaranteed year, partially guaranteed year left on his contract. So it can't last that long. And I do think, I don't know.

I literally have no idea what's going to happen with Zion. If he's just by inertia, going to be on the Pelicans on like a $30 million. a year deal after this one expired. I've absolutely no idea what's going to happen to him. I tried to find like what pseudo contender actually makes sense. This guy is a mid-season trade acquisition for us? Or is it not a pseudo contender?

Is it like a middle of nowhere, going nowhere, middle of the road team that's just like, screw it. Well, I have absolutely no idea. Yeah. Oh, wow. I theorized two weeks ago that he would be the greatest six man of all time for the 2027 playoffs. You just get him.

You have for eight minutes a half. Just come in. We're going to run our entire. our offense through and fuck the other team up and then you're going to sit. The incredible thing with him last season, in addition to him playing 62 games last season, which is fairly incredible. How infrequently he shoots from the mid-range in three. The numbers are astonishing.

All he does is he's a 60% shooter because he just goes to the rim and goes to the rim and gets to the paint and goes to the rim. That feels pretty goddamn valuable in the modern NBA. iteration of the NBA. If you thought you could get 60 games from him, I think there's a bunch of teams that would be interested. And the price should be right. It's decent, like 40 million that's movable.

You do have to send out real stuff just because of salary alone, in most cases anyway. If you're a contender, if you're a good team, you're probably going to have to send out good players to get him. And part of the first half of this season will be like, Do we have any faith that his durability last year was a real thing? Or was it a mirage? I do not.

This is our, I don't know if you guys want to celebrate in any way, but it's our 25th New Orleans Hornets season. Year 25. The Hornets, Pelicans? When they started as the New Orleans Hornets when they moved there. Got it. Can we take a Spotify ringer road trip to New Orleans for like a good two-game home stand? It's up point.

Tickets are available. Go to Harris. just eat some food. Paris is one of my favorite places on the earth. What is the case against doing this? For me, for me in the Northeast for House on the East Coast, let's go somewhere warm in December for a couple games. I'll gather.

What's the case against it? Sounds wonderful. A crab ball down in the northern. Would you like to guess how many playoff series wins they've had since they became the New Orleans Hornets in the 0-2-03 season? I will go with two. I agree. It's under five.

It's two. Yeah. Yeah. I know which one. they are. So that, two. My big fear with this team, other than the new tanking rules. You're a big fee.

You have one big fear? And the organization and the medical staff and the ownership. Other than that. Their franchise guy, I have no idea if he's going to play 60 games. This is just everybody on this team is in the trade machine at all times. And that's always a weird vibe for, like, I guess fears would not be in the trade machine, maybe. And queen.

And those are their two keepers. and then I'm prepared for anything else with any other guy to have. And also DeAndre Jordan, who's just, I think he signed a seven-year deal in the offseason. Because Joe Dumas misunderstood the rules and then claimed afterwards that he didn't. So, and I have this email from Alex in Florida, who wants to know why we assume the NBA anti-tanking rules will solve tanking because teams will want to be in that 4 to 10 zone. and New Orleans is one of the teams I wonder,

are we going to have like a log jam of teams that want to be four to ten? That's seven spots, but we might have 11 teams jockeying to be in those seven spots once we get to March. Anyway, lottery level teams, if we go Sacramento, Dallas, New Orleans, Clippers, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Chicago,

that's seven. There's three other teams that might just say, oh, we had a couple injuries, fuck it. Right? Like Charlotte's an example. For example, Charlotte's already had a couple hamstring calf things. They could start out slow. Maybe they have one more injury in December.

And, you know, they're 28 and 40 with 14 games to go. And they might just say, fuck it. So just trying to factor that in with a team like New Orleans that does seem so poorly run to begin with. I don't know what to do. Zach, what do you have for this? I will add to that that, again, I think it's if a team has a real chance to play in. It would be pretty unusual for them not to at least try. And the new tanking rules also

give Adam Silver even more latitude or make it clear that like he's going to bring the hammer down on suspicious crap. Like, oh, you took this guy out in the third quarter after he was healthy. This is a 28 and a half. When I first saw this weeks and weeks ago, I thought, well, that's going to be an over. They just have too much talent on this team. The wing combination of Herb Jones and Trey Murphy, that's a legit starting two, three, three, four, whatever on a good team. I am going to go under because I just think there are too many questions about who's going to be on the team long term. Too many guys who are just defined by the need to have the basketball at all times and don't really know how to function without it. And I mentioned the stat that I like to look at.

You know, they played much better with DeJante Murray when he came back briefly last year. I think they had a plus one and a half net rating, which for a 26 win team is a real thing. Then I went back and looked like, let's see who they played when John DeMur was available. And it was mostly Crapola. And to that point, this team was, let me find them, 9 and 45 against 500 or over teams last year, and 17 and 11 against below 500 teams. I am going to, despite the fact that there's a lot of raw talent here more than should be for a 29 win team, I'm going to go under.

It's an under for me as well. two observations. If there's any franchise in the entire NBA who unintentionally fucks up and find themselves in the relegation zone, this was a lead candidate.

Like they don't have to try to tank. They don't have to do anything nefarious. They just have to be who they are. Oopsy, we're one of the three words. There were new rules this year? Yeah. The Jamal Mosley hiring is so curious. He, I think, would be

an appropriate hire for culture setter, except for what culture are you trying to set with this group of guys? Five of these guys make sense, more sense on teams other than this team. It's an under for me as well

because this team breaks one of my many rules. If at least four of the guys in your nine-man rotation would openly welcome a trade, that makes me nervous. Like if you truth serum, I don't know, Tray Murphy, Herb Jones, DeJante Murray, and maybe even Zion, and probably Ben Matherin,

who just signed there and is already like, I hope they trade me. I just feel like this is not a long-term home for a lot of these guys. I also have the 2007 can't stay out of their own way team rankings. Wow, you really can't prepare a lot of different rankings here. Yeah. Sacramento won. I know you're feuding with Sacramento, Zach, but they're unfortunately, they're one. I have New Orleans, too, and I have Milwaukee three.

And I think that has to be the top three. And if you're going to say there's a couple of teams lurking, I would have Brooklyn and I would have Golden State. Sure. But you're just naming bad teams. That's all you're doing. Not naming bad teams as much as teams that, they just can't stay out of their own way.

Like Golden State just couldn't resist another bite of the Porzingis apple. Can't figure out how to do it. Another 20 million for Porzingis to the point where they had to have a story come out this week about it actually wasn't about Porzingis as much as the trade exception number for the contract. Really? That's why you signed Porzingis because it's a $20 million trade asset? That was your plan?

It's amazing. It's amazing that all it took was a coaching change and more importantly a managerial change. And the Dallas Mavericks who traded Luca Donchage in the dead of night are just out of this category. In Nigeria, Mike Schmns comes in, they're out of this category. They are the ultimate got in their own way. they ran into a wall that they constructed on their own and just ran head first into it. Because the league gave them the first fucking overall pick with Cooper flying.

Now you make Zach uncomfortable. I mean, let's not. No, I'm not uncomfortable. Jesus. I mean, let's not sugarcoat it. For Christ's sakes. Well, we're all under on the Pelicans. And that brings us to the end of whatever that division is called.

Can I interject as we get to the end? I just want to note, I'm keeping score here. I might have to start jogging more. Five teams in. we only have one disagreement and it's me going under on the Mavericks. I think I'm going to have to start zogging it up. I would say that that I thought

was the easiest division of the six for being. I think it's going to get harder and you're about to find out right after this break. So the NBA is so close to being back. Fando has you covered all season long. I want to walk you through

how I would potentially use the Fando MBA Futures reward stack. All right. So there's five profit boost tokens. you have the advanced two X playoff round. I would use the Pacers probably for that to make the final eight, because I think the odds are pretty good on that. You could also just use San Antonio or OKC to make the conference finals.

Regular season wins. You can pick any regular season wins bet you want. I would probably lean toward OKC just getting into 62 and 20. running range and you're good with that. Make miss playoffs, you can pick a make miss playoff bets. I like the Pacers for that one too. Division winners, pick any team to win their division. It's got to be the Lakers.

They have the easiest path for the Pacific Division if Luca gets healthy. And then last but not least, pick any finals win bet. So for something like this, keep it simple. Take O KC or San Antonio, whoever you think is going to win. Or take last year's champs, the Knicks. Put them all together and knock yourself out. We have an amazing MBA season. Had Fando, as you covered right now, all season long.

Listen to all of our future picks and get in on the action yourself before the PBT pack expires. End of the day, Sunday, October 18th. This episode is brought to by IG Private Wealth. Here's the thing. Real wealth is not just numbers on a page. It's living life on your terms. Running the business.

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Limited time offer, see website for details. We're back and we're on a terrible pace. My fault. I had, who did I have Dan Quinn organized at the rundown? What are you talking about? We're at a great pace. We started this whole goddamn show with how much America is dying for NBA basketball and where you're sitting right here.

Giving them basketball. Two of the greats and one big dummy giving America basketball. All right. Well, that was the most interesting division of the three. We're going to the Northwest, Oklahoma City. 61.5 is the over. For the one seed there, minus 110 house. A bet that I have in bold because I do think they will be the one seed.

They were 64 and 18 last year, plus 130 conference, plus 240 for the title. They lost Ludoort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins. And they added Adamara. A daimara? A day, Mara? A die? I'm going to screw that up all season. I look forward to that.

A die, Mara. I'm just going to call Mara or the tall guy. And Bennett starts. And, all right, the big question. Was last year just a crazy lightning in a bottle aberration lost to the spurs? Or is there a Wembee kryptonite issue with this team? Zach Lowe. I think somewhere in between.

I mean, Wembe is going to be kryptonite for pretty much. every offense in the NBA. One thing that would help defang that kryptonite would be to have all your secondary ball handlers healthy, and they did not have AJ Mitchell or J. Lynn Williams healthy for that series. So a little bit of both. I think, look, I think they played 12 times last year, and it was eight four spurs. That's a real thing at that point.

There's no question about it. It's the best rivalry in the NBA. It's going to be even more interesting this season, particularly, I don't think they played until mid-December, which is like, why? Why? Why do I have to wait so long? I can't wait to see Chet Holmgren's response to seeing Wembe in his face again. I think it's going to be awesome. But I think it's a little bit of both.

But I would be a little more optimistic than just saying straight up, Wembe is the kryptonite and that's the end of the story. I agree with Zach Lowe and I would even go further. I think last year was just a crazy aberration. They didn't have their second best player as one of the best 15 guys in the league, healthy really for most of the season. House, they were 72 and 18 heading into the San Francisco. Antonio series.

They're over under 61.5. I don't see how they lose 20 games or more this season, even with the new tanking rolls. I just can't get there. We have Rocky 3 Chet. Spent in the gym with Duke. He put on two pounds.

He put on two pounds. He put on two pounds. They have Hartstein back. They have Mara. They have a healthy J-dub. And I'm not that worried about the kryptonite thing. I went back over kryptonite. teams in history, like the Magic Lakers at the 86 Rockets,

and then we're very fortunate when that team completely fell apart. Shack Kobe Lakers sort of had Duncan Spurs. There were a couple years there where Duncan could really take them toe to toe. Bird Celtics had the Pistons who they beat in 87, lost 88. Yokech Nuggets recently with Minnesota, I think was a kryptonite team. That's a good one. Duncan Spurs had that one Zibo Grizzlies era that just was, Zibo and Gassol were just a terrible match.

for them for a couple years in a row. So this does happen. You didn't do MJ Pistons? I mean, they literally had the Jordan rules. I know, but he ended up kicking their ass and breaking up the team. It took a while. They beat his ass. It's a good one. I mean, they just were a way better team.

Yes. So I think OKCe is going to be fine. I think they're the favorite. And I'm pretty bullish on them. How about you, House? It's an over. It's a lock. I have no hesitation or reservation around it. The aberration that you're describing is also, to me, just regular old NBA variants.

Guys get hurt. It is this, you know, modern world of the NBA. And I do wonder to one of the big theme observations Zach made at the top of the show, if all of the teams are playing hard and all of the, nobody's really incented to tank, where are we going to find the rest for these guys? because there have been now these studies backing up the notion that the players are running more, that the running is more intense, that the, so we've been, yeah, we've been talking about this for a couple years. We better be finding ways for these guys to get some rest, to go ahead and load manage,

if we want the best versions of these teams to be available in the playoffs. Well, that's why they need Mara starts. Sorber, we're going to have to see this here. Topich, Zach's guy. Great. Let's see them all. And then Jared McCain, who just fell into their laps last year, which was huge. Mitchell will be healthy.

I just think they have a lot of options, looks, lineups. They can give guys nights off. How intrigued on a scale of 1 to 10 were you with the Mara highlights in the preseason Zach? I didn't think he's missed a shy. I watched a couple of their games and I was like, oh, my God. I mean, look, it's preseason, right? But he's had multiple block on one end, dunk on the other end sequences that are like,

okay, this guy's like, he's going to be something. He posted up a couple of switches and like easy, pzy hooks. Like he's going to be able to play minutes for them. He's at least not a bust. I think we could just tell from the preseason, this guy will be something. And I don't know if he's going to be somebody who can play in the fourth

quarter of a Spurs game four in San Antonio, but he's not nothing. Well, they shouldn't, if they're healthy, they will not need him to play a second again. in San Antonio in a playoff series, unless he's so good that he has earned that time. The case for the under is it's a huge number again. There's not going to be anyone tanking.

Are they going to try to be careful with their best players and rest them more? Well, I mean, in J-Dub's case, even if they rest and they'll still end up playing more than he did last year. And I think for both them and the Spurs, you have to think, like, how much does either team care about getting the number one seed and having game seven at home?

The Spurs already beat Oklahoma City on the road in Game 7. I don't know the answer to that. But I just say, and obviously they lost three key depth pieces and one of them being a starter in Lou Dort. I'm not really worried about that. I think a full season of McCain is huge for them in that regard. I think Mitchell and McCain off the bench, I mean, they are going to go on like 20 to four runs against these opposing second units who are like, what's happening? These guys are like All-Stars playing against us. I am going over on 61.5.

I just think they're too good. So you're locking this? Yeah, I locked it. I couldn't lock it only because I don't know what 62 wins means in this new NBA where 25 to 28 teams are actually going to care most of the season. I didn't know how to factor. If we were the old tanking rolls, to me, this would be a 69 to 71 range team. I just don't know what they're making them.

I'm less fearful because I just think they'll kick everybody's ass. Like there aren't any rosters that I'm wearing. worried about when I go through it. As you know, I love nothing more than going through preseason features, interviews, and comments from star players and interpreting them and making too much of them. I have like some of the SGA stuff about how much last year hurt and looking at the championship ring and, you know, does seem like he's pissed off. That basically they had a chance to go back to back.

they didn't. The Knicks supplanted them as, you know, the team. San Antonio supplanted them as the sexy team in the West everyone wants to talk about. And I think he wants to get his, take his corners back. It's a little Marlowe season, season five-ish. They also must know on some level that and this is nothing to take away anything they accomplished. But the Halliburton injury in game seven of that series is inevitably changes the way we all remember that series. And, And I think they know if we want to win, we want to win over everybody's best shot. And we kind of didn't get to do that. Minnesota, a lot of buzz on them.

And yet they're over under. It keeps going the wrong way house. It's down to 46 and a half. They are 27.1 for the title, minus 550 for the playoffs. 30 to 1 will be the one seed. He did not have their first round pick. It goes to either Utah or Memphis. 49 and 33 last year.

They were 17 and 13 in their last 30 games. my big question to you. In May, you're either going to be right or wrong about Lamello. And I don't have a question. It's just a comment. It's now you really have to pick sides on this one. This is not, you can't,

I'm not just saying you, I'm saying everybody. This has now turned into the most fun, I'm on this side or I'm in this side with the trade, with what Lamella is going to do with Minnesota, the whole thing. So where are you? I've never been a Lamello guy. I don't think he's a serious basketball player.

I think he is incredibly talented. I understand the flair with which he plays. I know why he's so appealing to a couple of generations of basketball fans younger than me. I just want none of it. I'm not interested in any aspect of it. There have been a lot of smart people who've made the observations around the offensive engine he was for that Charlotte team last year, but he still commits turnovers, you know, inside of some of the advanced analytics at a rate that's not really

sustainable. But at the end of the day, there is no evidence that he's a winning basketball player. And so that's my verdict. And as a result, Minnesota's an under for me. Year seven for him, he's played 2100 minutes once in a season. He's never played in an actual playoff game. And yet, Zach Lowe, he's never played with anyone like Anthony. Adverts. You have. You have. I would push back on the no evidence that he's a winning player just because Charlotte has

always been way, way better when he's on the floor and not in a fake way where like, oh, the bench sucks and the starters suck less in a real way where like they're awesome on offense in particular and really crappy without him. I'm going over. And I, this line is too low at 46.5. The two guards and Lamelo together offensively, Rudy is a top 10 defense all by himself. The floor seems pretty high if they're healthy.

The bench, worrisome and inexperienced, but, you know, there's some upside there. And I don't know how much of you guys have caught in the preseason. One of my real actual, like, I'm taking this away in a real way and putting it in my pocket for the regular season, I think Jaded McDaniels is going to level up as a player, particularly on offense. I agree. I just, I think 46.5 is too low, so I will take the over. And we have another disagreement, finally.

I was a slight over until I read this quote from Chris Finch on the mellow ball. He's always in a great mood, always comes in smiling. He and Anthony have a shared quality. They're really hard to stay mad at. They do some things that want to make you get mad.

They have a reflective joy. We referred to ourselves as a moody team in the last couple years at times and they've probably got in our way. We've traded moodiness for giddiness. I'm an over. Oh, joy. I actually think they're,

I think this number is two to three wins too low. They're going to shoot a ton of threes. There's going to be nights when it looks awful. There's going to be nights when it seems like they could have beaten any team in NBA history. There's going to be a real flare and happiness and joy to them as a regular season team. I have no idea what happens in the playoffs and I don't have high hopes. But I agree with what Zach said about McDaniels. I.O. Shannon, Berringer, if they can actually get something at him.

The only thing I don't... Berengue. Berengue. Berengue, sorry, I call him Berenger, like Tom Berringer. The only thing I didn't like is Cominga. And I know why they did it. The price was the price. I just don't think he's a winning basketball player.

I don't like where he fits in with this. I don't think he's going to have the ball enough, and I don't see how the comming a piece of this works. Just to be clear, you think 40% of their starting lineup are losing basketball players and you're taking you over. I don't think Lamello's a losing basketball player. Okay. I just want to be clear.

Joe House said that. Joe House right over here said that. I feel like the record kind of supports it. It's like he pulled Charlotte to great, okay. My issue with Lamello is this. It's a durability thing. I talked about this when they made the trade.

I don't trust that he can play 2,300 and 2,400 minutes, which I think if you're going to trade all this stuff they traded and you're going to rely on him the way they're going to rely on him, I need to know you're playing 70 to 73 games and you're play 30 minutes a game. and Charlotte very smartly last year

pulled his minutes back and put him at 28. Yeah. And we're basically treating him like they're on a cross-country drive. I'm losing my voice. They're on a cross-country drive just going 60 miles an hour

on the highway in the middle lane with him. When I think he wants to go on the left lane and I think he wants to floor it and he's going to do that with Minnesota. He does want to floor it. The good people of Minnesota, look, look, you. They should have an alert for when he gets behind the wheel of the car.

Literally he's going to float. And I think his car takes up multiple lanes at the same time. So you can tell him when it's Lamello. But here's the thing. They have insurance for him if he misses 10 games. They do. And that's why that made me comfortable with the over of 46 and a half. I thought about locking it down, but I just want to see how this looks.

And by the way, I get why they did the trade. I just didn't like it. I thought last year I would have gotten rid of random. I would have kept Naz Reid. I thought last year they were injured. They were injured. They were a team that made two straight conference finals, and I thought had a foundation of something.

And I would have bet on McDaniels getting better. Yeah. I just would have gotten rid of Randall would have been my move. How many locks are we required to post? You can do as many as you want. I'm not ready to live this one. Oh, I would love to be on the other side of it, of the Zach Locke.

So they got rid of Randall, Nasreed, and Mike Conley, and they added Lamello and Comingo. Good. And hopefully a McDaniels level up because of Randall and they had a giddiness and happiness. I love him. House, do you want to do a challenge lock? You lock the under, I locked you over? Well, it's just a bet between the two of us.

Let's not lock. I don't want to lock anything with this. You and I can have our own separate gentleman's Minnesota waiver. We'll come up with a fun name for it. I don't understand. Why did you turn down his lock challenge? Because I'm not locking in under for this team. The ceiling is high.

What if it works? I'm not locking it. I mean, watch are precious. This team probably had no chance of beating San Antonio and OKC healthy in the playoffs the next couple of years. And at least they have changed the variance with the freeze. I don't know why we're so certain of that. If Anthony Edwards was healthy, if Anthony Edwards was healthy, like what he does in terms of overcoming some of the shortfalls that we saw out of Randall,

the Randall-Naz combo was a genuine front line that could compete with. Banks of bodies. With San Antonio, they won 49 games last season, and they got rid of those two big bodies and replaced them with, you know, clowny McFarty pants, you know, who should be in an Uber at all times.

And, and, and, and, and, and Cominga. Cloudy McFarty Pants. And Cominga. I mean, good luck. That's all. Good luck. They had to, so you won't lock and under on a team.

No, but you know, Clowny McFarty Pants? You nicknamed Clowny McFarty Pants? I don't like his game. But I mean, what if he goes off? What if Anthony Edwards unleashes him? Unlocks him. It's possible.

If we can get a Bill Simmons colonoscopy T-shirt made, can we get a Clowny McFarty Pants? With a picture of Lamello? Sure. I bet it would work. Zach, do you think if they hadn't floated Randall's name in the trade deadline so egregiously and spun him into the funk that he went to after that, that this was salvageable for them,

or do you think they were dying to get off him regardless? I think they were ready to just move on to your point to it, to a different vision of like, we need to do something that's our unique thing to have any chance, and maybe this will be it. Well, they built a team to beat Denver, and they did,

but it didn't need to make the finals. I'm willing to acknowledge that Anthony Edwards could unleash him, and he might start playing the first moment of his basketball career, some serious basketball. I'll acknowledge it. It's possible. I do think this will lead that, team will lead the league not only this year, but all time historically. In most times,

a guy makes a three, staggers away from the three point line with a prance, has a teammate come over, and then they double prance and stick their tongues out at each other. I think this is going to be the league leader of all time. I'd say it happening three times a game. But particularly if Lamello and Bones Highland are on the floor at the same time, they have the most audacious and and they are committed to them three-point celebrations. You mean the rejuvenated Bones Island? Yeah. I'm ready for the Bones.

He was good last year. Their bench is kind of fun. If they can get anything from Tom Berringer, I think this would be good. Todd Benzinger. All right. All right. Two overs and an under for house.

Denver Nuggets. Not even fun to talk about because you know, Zach and I are both going over. They're over as 48 and a half. They were 54 and 28 last year. got the shirt. Last four years house, 54, 50, 57, and 53

for wins. In Vegas is saying those times are over. 9-1 for the division, 13-1 for the conference, 27-1 for the playoffs. Their first rounder goes to OKC and it is top five protected. Zach Lowe, the big question. Is there a

22 Warriors run lurking in the ether for these guys? The 2022 Warriors run was amazing and magical. And one of the things it required was a kind of injury forced gap year for Denver and the Clippers, who on paper were going to be way better than, not way better, better than those Warriors teams. So if there's no gap year for Oklahoma City in San Antonio, I think the answer is unfortunately, no, despite the fact that Yokic is Yokic. Sadly, that's my answer as well, House.

There's no moves they can make now. They have no more moves. They're right up against the second apron. Yeah. And they did acquire that 31 unprotected Cleveland pick, which I think they will try to do something with. It's just like what what salary are they attaching to that pick that has any positive value for another team to get them back. We have something even better than that. We have this argument.

Can I walk you through the 2022 Warrior scenario just so we have it? Three seed. They get okay seed in round two. a team that I think they've looked pretty comfortable against over the years. And it played Wembe well, too, on the flip side. Minnesota somehow upsets San Antonio or Houston. Somehow San Antonio loses him round two. So they only have to play one of OKC versus for San Antonio.

And then they're able to get in there. And the big thing would be that Yokic, who was not healthy last year, who got hurt, and who missed like 16 games. And when he came back was not moving the same way he normally does. He's just healthy. Last year, 65 games. He's had six straight top two MVP finishes. It is year 12 for him, basically.

And they lost Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway, Bruce Brown. They added to Mardowers and Tyos Jones. Marvin Bagley, who I thought was a sneaky one. He's serviceable. I mean, he was good in Washington. Yeah, I think that's... He's serviceable. I'd rather see him out there than Zieg Najee.

And they added Brazil from the draft. And then they rejuvenated Kim Whitmore Island. they put electricity electricity and island Whitmore Island The most interesting piece was De Rosen A guy, Zach's probably written too many If you had to regret one player You've probably written too many words on over the years

Is it DeRosen or is it somebody else? He basically spanned your entire writing career Tobias Harris maybe Maybe Tobias, okay Could be up there He's first team all I spent too many words on you He's definitely first team There's no question

He's unanimous first team Does the Dorozan thing change anything for you? No. I do think Alpha Dialo is worth of mention, too, given how his defense has looked in the preseason. But I think, you know, De Rosen's fine. It'll be interesting to see how they use him. I just, you know, he's additive as a ball handler.

I just don't know how that meshes with Jamal Murray and how they stagger all the minutes together. Defensively is obviously a liability. And he just sort of compounds a they don't shoot enough three's problem that is played Denver, although less sold last year. But so I, Howard Beck picked him as a sneaky six-man-of-the-year candidate. Mine word. I fell out of my chair.

I don't see it. Is he drinking? The Rosen thing brings up something that's just, we have so many good players now. The league is so deep that we've entered this new era where guys like DeMarta Rosen can just play 18 minutes a game and be a legitimate old school six-man. Because that's how much talent we have. I am not going against Yokage. No.

I just think he's 50 wins every year, much like Tim Duncan back in the day, unless something egregious happens. I do wonder, though, is there a Jamal Murray move with this team during this season? Because they have the Yokage extension coming. There's trade partners for something like that

all over the league, including the Dallas Mavericks that we talked about earlier, where you could, Kare's at 39, Jamal's at 50. And if you're Dallas and Kare's like, I kind of want to be on one more

good team. Now you flip that, you double down on Jamal Murray. Toronto is the other one I was looking at for this. Where, you know, the problem is they don't necessarily have the point guard to give back, but it is Jamal Murray, Canada.

But I just, I wonder if they'd proactively if they feel like they're not going to actually win the title, make a move during this season to try to prepare themselves for the Yokoage contract would be my fear with the over. But I am going over. Anything under 50 is an automatic over for me with them. I agree with that.

And I'm having a hard time divorcing my skepticism. I don't know. My dismay is probably overstating it. Choosing Christian Brown over Peyton Watson and not having that perspective in mind when you're sitting down thinking about, okay, we got an amazing scene. season out of Christian Brown. What does the next three years look like? And going through that decision making and fucking yourself so hard with Christian

Brown and making it so that there's no possible way because you don't want to spend the money to keep Watson. And I think Peyton Watson's going to be incredible with Cleveland. I think it's an amazing situation for him. And I think that losing him is a material diminution of this ceiling of this Denver Nuggets team. Having said all that, it's an over for me over 48 and a half. that's not. But that's the problem I have.

Like the front office, what we've gone through in terms of the coach swap stuff and the rivalry between, you know, between Booth and and Michael Malone that, that,

you know, sabotaged that season. Like, what are we doing? You have an all-time great with the Joker. And you are fucking it up year after year after year.

Still, it's an over. But, you know, I don't like it. I don't like it. That's all. Zach,

do you feel better about the Brown contract? after some of the contracts we saw this summer where there's this range of guys 20 to 25 million a year now. Like Pods just got 22 a year from the Warriors, right? That does seem like the range. Congrats.

If you're a number four or number five starter and you're young and you can play minutes, that does seem like where we've landed with the range. Peyton Watson's 22 a year. I.O. got in the low 20s. And I wonder, like, is the Brown contract that bad? He was hurt last year. Well, all of those guys were better than,

Christian Brown last year. So it requires a bounce back year. We don't really know what Christian Brown looks like, not catching touchdown passes from Yokic for half of his points, but be that as a man, I think he's a good player. It's a negative contract right now, but it's easily rehabilitative. All right, are you sitting down? You are sitting down. I can see you. I'm going under on 48.5 for the Nuggets. And no one loves Yokch more than I do. I have a lot of respect for the starting five that they've assembled. I'm going under because as I went through all my Western Conference picks, you can't, you've got to go under on some good teams.

It just, for the math to work, it just has to work. And the counter to Yokic being healthy, potentially healthier than it was last year is, I hate the bench. I have no faith in Aaron Gordon being healthy for a large portion of the sea. I don't know what the cap on games of him is. and I don't know who backs him up now that I have any faith in. I worry that we just got the best Jamal Murray year and the healthiest Jamal Murray year that we're ever going to have.

And I have to go under somewhere. I don't feel great going under 48 and a half on a Denver team that's been a 50 win machine with Yokic. I just really don't like the back end of this roster and I worry about injuries and some minor aggression at the top other than Yokic. So I got to go on. I'm going under. And I actually feel not terrible about it.

I just feel sad. Well, it's the required. If you go over on Minnesota the way that you did. And you're going to see other teams I go, you're going to see other teams I go over on that I feel pretty confident. I can't go over on everyone. It makes sense. I'm not arguing with you.

The only were one round last year. So they haven't played basketball since April, which makes me feel good with Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. And the Joker, honestly. I like the bench a little more than Zach. I also think they can add to the bench, especially in February, which we saw last year where there were a bunch of guys available late. And I just can't go under with Joker if he's healthy and motivated, which it seems like he is.

But I feel sad. I feel deceived. I feel betrayed. Take it easy. That's strong. Portland Trailblazers. By the way, that thing you said about how you had to go over on certain teams, I actually like added up all the wins and losses that I thought everyone was going to have

and all the overunders and actually felt pretty good about going over on them because there's a lot of teams I don't like. That means we're going to disagree on some teams coming up. Oh yeah. So let's go. Portland Trailblazers is 41 and a half. Last year there are 42 and 40. Playoffs minus 185 playing plus 105.

80 to 1 for the title. They have new coach, Mike of Noree, who is being paid by the month. Last 30 games last year, 18 and 12. the big question because they lost Jeremy Grant and Matthias Tybal. They added John Morant, Jeremy Sohan, Vic Kretche and a healthy Dame Lillard. And they have four point guards and two centers and a bunch of, I don't know what else.

Sharp is hurt. But my big question house, did they get too fucking weird with this team? Did they just go full weirdo in a way that just was too weird. It's very weird. I don't, especially with the ownership change and the uncertainty around how long they may remain in Portland, it's a very weird roster.

I wrote down on my notes. It's like when we go out to dinner and you get really excited by different things on the menu and we order too many things. And you're like, oh, they have an iceberg wedge. There's French onion soup? Good. Wait, they have oysters? Good.

Oh, there's a seafood tower? Great. Wait, you have a porterhouse bone-in special? This is where it goes sideways. And you just start ordering stuff. The porterhouse and the pasta. And then the entree comes and it's like, oh, I, oh shit, we have one more course coming and then you just regret it.

It was a course too many. I wonder if Portland was like that, Zach, where they were like, oh, yeah, we could get Dame Lillard? And we could get John Moran? My wife refers to me as a panic order based really on one meal that we had in New York before a show. We're halfway through the meal. I was like, I just think I'm going to be hungry. Can we get an order of edamamead dumplings to just get us to say?

By the time the edamomah dumplings came, I was like, this was kind of a mistake. I don't know who the edamame dumplings are in this case. not John Morant. Now, John Morant is the, let's get the lobster for the table. Yes, the lobster for the table. Oh, wait, they didn't take it out of the show. We all have to use the crunchies. Oh, my God, it's all over me.

You guys don't have bibs? I've lobster all over me. What's happening? Losser for the table is magnificent, by the way. Have either of you guys, if either of you guys been approached to be the play-by-play announcer for the Blazers this year? No, I'm available. Oh, can I do it remotely?

Well, they have a cheap owner of four point guards and a new coach on a one-year deal. They have a Scoot Henderson situation that I do think he would have had trade value and interest around the league. And now they've just buried him to the point that somebody like Memphis could probably just steal him. You know, some team that could be like,

I have some point guard minute, Brooklyn. Why didn't they do that in the first place? Why didn't they get Scoot as part of the John Morant? I don't know why they did. Arrangement. Free scoot Henderson is my thing. Did you want to do a Stephen A apology to El Chippo? No, no, I'm not going to do it.

I know you, we had a whole conversation around last night, Bill Simmons and I, that situation in Portland and the direction that that whole thing must be headed. I was testing out a zag about El Chippo. And I'm not going anywhere. Maybe he has some good ideas. And I was like, do this. I'm not doing it. I'm not ready yet.

I don't have the full policy. Maybe he has some good ideas. is a phrase that has let a lot of people down a lot of roads that have become regrettable. Good observation. Maybe you should apologize for even thinking about doing a Zag and El Chippo. I'd like to talk to the Trailblazer fans right now. A fan base I deeply respect. You could have just done it, House.

I'm not going to do it. Klingin, Avdia, Kamara, Dame, and Morant, who they're apparently starting together. I would say everybody who knows anything about basketball if you ask them, hey, would it make sense to start Dame Lord and John Morant together? The answer would be, no, don't do that. But they're doing it. They're bringing Drew Holiday off the bench, who seems like he'd be perfect, starting with John Morant, time lord's coming off the bench,

Sohan, who I don't know how many times teams have to try him out and take him for a test drive. This is an under for me. I don't understand this team. And anytime I'm just completely confused by a roster, I have to go under 41.5. It means that they would have to have a winning record. And I don't see it how so under for me. I crossed out my answer to this one three different times.

Because it's a roster with a lot of talent, like guys that shot creators, shot makers, the flash flood version of Denny going, you know, to the middle. crashing the middle and getting to the rim and either getting fouled or finishing. What a revelation that was. Well, how many times is he going to be able to do that with this roster construction? I have no fucking idea.

So what does it mean to Deniavda Vizhya's development and his impact on the team? I have no clue. I am playing them under, but I could easily see them winning 44 games or so. I could easily see it. It wouldn't shock me. I have one more comment on this team, but let's get Zach's pick first. I think Denny's going to have a great year again taking some easier threes

and still being a pretty high volume driver, a ball handler, et cetera. But we'll not have the ball as much as he did last year. He won't and he shouldn't. I mean, he had the ball all the time last year. He was, it was a little too much. I think there's real talent here.

I like some of the pieces. I have the same fit issues everybody else has. No one is tanking. And again, a stat that if I'm having any little trouble deciding 16 and 33 against winning teams last year, There we go. 26 and 7 against the sub 500 teams.

I am going a slight under underblazers. I also have real questions about what do we get out of Dame at this point of his career coming off that injury when I didn't really like where the arrow was pointed to begin with. And then him playing with John Morant, just ridiculous anyway. But then where John Moran is now in his career where it was all athleticism and all getting in the basket. And as he gets a little older and has had some wear and tear and injuries, what's playing and B because he still can't shoot. So I don't know.

I don't like the, and then you have a coach on a one year contract and you have El Cipo. Three unders for us. Last one's going to be a good, lively combo. The Utah Jazz.

They're over under is 37 and a half, which made me go, whoa. I didn't think it was going to be that high. Playoffs plus 110, playing plus 100. Last year, they were 22 and 60, but in the last 40,

they were 8.32, as they threw away the second half this season, the point that Adam Silver, for one of the few times in his commissioner tenure, I actually got mad and cleaned house and did some shit. A lot of people like this team, Zach Lowe. My big question, can I offer everyone around to settle down juice? You can offer it to me.

I don't have to take it. I'm going to turn you. You can buy me a drink at the bar and I'm going to say, no, thank you. I don't like to look at that guy. I don't like what he's about and I'm returning the drink. 20 ounce settle down juice. you're not taking it. That's too much.

I don't even want a 12-ounce settle down to you, so I'll have a beer instead. Or I guess I'll have a 2.5% beer because we're talking about the jazz, but I'll take my beer. Thank you. They lost Walker Kessler, who played five games last year. They added Darren Peterson.

They're starting Triple J, Markinen, Ace Bailey, Peterson, and George. Nirkage is out for at least a month. Benches C-plus. Where are you looking, Zach? I'm going over on the jazz. I have a lot of faith in Will Hardy.

I think just has a chance to be a very dynamic offensive team. Obviously, there are concerns about rebounding, particularly without Nurkich. Maybe they'll start, they started Jackson Hazeless, and I think they're still deciding who the fifth starter on the team is going to be wing defense, obviously going to be a little bit of an issue. But I think I like the fit of marketing and Triple J together. I think Keonti George is a real guy. I like Darren Peterson.

I think Will Hardy is a great coach. They're hungry to win. They have good spacing. They're creative. They're going to be hard to play against. Their bench to me is just, just good enough that I can go over on 37.5. House? Yeah, so the market, I think this opened 35 and a half.

Went up two, I think. Yeah. So all the way up to 37 and a half now, because as folks, as the season's, you know, coming into view, we have some proof of concept with what a dynamic score there in Peterson is. And wow, could he be complimentary, you know, adding to this team that already, you know, has some shot makers, some guys that can create some shots, guys that you would trust with the ball. And it feels like Ace Bailey was a little under the radar last season. He's a big guy.

This is a big lineup they can run out there. I like Ace Bailey a lot. I think he's got a chance to be, and he's in the perfect role now as he doesn't have to do too much offensively. He's really embraced like trying to get better defensively moving off the ball. I really like him. There's some rim protection stuff with him that I did not expect last year. I mean, Washington was dying to get him in the draft that they selected Trey Johnson. They just couldn't, you know, figure out a way to Ropa Dope Utah.

and Utah was not to be roper doped, even with Ace, you know, pretending that he wasn't going to be happy there. I have to take the over with this team because of my respect for Hardy and how many professional basketball players are on this team. And because I think when we get to this Pacific division,

the number of unders that are appearing there and all of the wins that are available, I have Utah threatening the play in. I think they're going to be a legit, you know, team to bump up into that sort of tense space. I'm going to zag and go under just because we've,

I don't have enough where I've zagged against you guys. I have them right around this number. The rebounding and defense stuff is a real concern for me. I agree with what Zach said about Will Hardy. I'm excited to see him with a real team. Offensively, I like some of the stuff they have. I also think they have a bunch of guys

that probably would want to have the ball. And I don't know how the Peterson-George thing is going to work out. Peterson is the anointed guard. Holy shit. There's some Kobe in here. There's a bunch of different pieces of great players that. I think you need some settled down juice.

I'm just saying if you watch a two minute, two minute, here's what Darren Peterson did last night, montage. You're like, Jesus. Are you saying he's a problem? Darren Peterson is a problem. But George was a problem last year. I mean, he averaged 23 a game and had the ball all the time for them.

And I thought it was pretty good at the end of games. I don't like the rebounding defense piece at all. And I don't know when Nurkage comes back. I don't know how this team's going to get rebounds. Jaron Jackson is career average. I have it written down. 5.6 rebounds a game. And not just that.

He only plays like 28, 29 minutes a game. And he gets into foul trouble all the time. Honestly, I would listen to a 45 minute podcast segment of you and Barclay just complaining about power forwards and centers who don't get rebounds. It's one of your favorite things that you guys share. It's two a quarter. You can't resist it.

And I would listen to just you guys going through all of NBA history and Barclay being like, I played against that guy. He stinks and just going off on bad. When you and I pick up basketball at USC, I was getting two rebounds a quarter. It's not hard. Just go put your ass into somebody and get a rebound.

I worry about the rebounding and I worry about them, defending unless House is right about Ace Bailey. And he's somebody that could actually become a two-way guy right away this year. My fear for this team, I also have some Peterson fears too, because I still think the Kansas season was really weird. It just was. He played, he wasn't playing, he was hurt, he wasn't hurting.

I don't trust that. My thing with this team, and I don't like their schedule first 20 games either, my thing with this team, I think the advanced stats are going to be really good. It's going to be a little like Charlotte last year, where we're like, whoa, look at Utah's offense. Holy shit. And I think they're going to be in the vicinity of a lot of games, but I don't think they're going to be a 500 team.

It's a slight under. I think there's somewhere between 35 and 37 for me. So under for me, over for Zach, over for House. Yeah. I do want to point out, it is funny. Zach probably knows off the top of his head. Maybe you know as well. Who was Utah's leading rebounder last season?

Was it marketing? It was not. Who was it? Kyle Philpowski at just over seven rebounds of the game. He's legit. Pretty good. Kyle Philpowski. I'll tell you, you could make a very good FEMA High Luke was a problem video too. Just, just FYI on that.

My dad couldn't stand him. When he played for the Celtics, my dad himself said, they brought that Zvi guy in again. What does he do? He shoots. That's what he does. I will say, I feel the worst about this pick out of my first 10 picks, because I can see this being over.

The Willhardy thing worries me and the crowd worries. me. I don't feel great about the under, but we got to disagree on something. All right, we're going to take a break. Come back with the very, very decrepit Pacific after this. The Pacific Division, our third and last division in the West, and easily the worst one. The Lakers have the best odds. They're overrunner is 45 and a half for the division. They're minus 180. Conference 21, title 40 to 1. Their 2007 draft pick goes to Memphis, but it is top four protected. Last year, there are 53. and 29. They lost

LeBron James, Rue Hachamora, Marcus Smart, DeAndre Aiton. They had a Walker, Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collins Sexton. And Mamu, a Zach Lowe favorite. My big question for you, Zach, can these snow time Lakers get Luca

an MVP? It's possible, but I feel like we've been having the same discussion about, oh, this is the year that all the stars align for Luca to win MVP, and he, I don't when I say he hasn't played enough games I don't mean he hasn't qualified for the 65 game rule I mean he's sees like around 68 a lot and then his team just doesn't finish high enough in the standings

so it's just look when you got to go through wemby and yokech and sGA the answer is always going to probably be no snow time or no snow time bando wemby plus 200 sGA plus 400 luka plus 500 joker six to one yannis 10 to one tatum 16 to one house no i'm not a lot of bet on this award. Yeah, it's a waste of money at the outset of the season to bet on MVP from a gambling perspective. As the season develops, maybe, but I'm done. I'm not betting on Luca anymore. I've done it each of the last three years. You've donated to the Luke MVP fund. Had enough. What does an MVP season look like for him? I wrote down probably 49 plus wins, 35 a game, 35, 9 and 9, and some game winners.

And yeah, I think he has to play 70 plus games, right? Now, if he goes James Harden in 2019 range where he's like 36, 37 a game, the conversation shifts, I think. You don't seem excited about that second. No, I just, I mean, we'll see. I think the team is more interesting than how many points Luca is going to average, whether it's 33 or 35 or 37 or 31, it's going to be a shit ton of points and he's going to put up amazing stats.

Starting five of Quentin Grimes and four white guys, four white starters house. We're heading back to the 50s. It's a throwback, a true throwback. And the big move was Kessler, who I talked about it on my pod last week or two weeks ago. They gave up a shitload of stuff for him. For a guy that I don't think was probably in the top, Ringer 100 hasn't come out. out for this year. I don't think he was probably in the top 60.

Played five games last year. They could have patched together center in different ways. They decided they wanted to go all in on somebody Luca was excited about. And he both has to play a lot of games. He has to be incredibly impactful. And even if that happens, I'm still not sure what destiny of this team is. So there's another variable. The team just got sold.

Rob Polinka is not on the crockpot. He's on the, I don't even think he's on a hot seat. I think he's in the exit row. Oh. And I don't know when that's going to happen, but I don't think he will be involved with this team by the end of the season, if not sooner. Wow.

JJ seems okay. And I thought JJ did a good job last year. But there's a little bit of, it's Lucas team now. Now they'll change the front office. They're going to cruise to this division. And I don't know what success is for this team, Zach,

other than being in the high 40s and building a future around Luca. I don't think this team has aspirations that they're going to win three playoff rounds, right? I wouldn't say that to Lucas' face or JJ Reddick's face, but it's hard.

I mean, that's making the finals out of the West, and that seems like a hill too high for them to climb. And I mean, I think the bigger problem is it's not the money for Kessler, it's the picks that combined with the it is this team now just boxed in asset-wise with the only out looming if they want to change their team trading Austin Reeves, which is going to be, you know, if they ever do it, would be

trading an extremely talented player to try to get another extremely talented player back or reset the timetable, which Luca is not going to want. But look, I mean, the season you just described, high 40 wins, top four seed, win a playoff round, lose to the Oklahoma City or San Antonio, It's not what Luca wants to hear. It's not what Lakers fans want to hear. It's nothing wrong with that. When do we think, when do we get the first interview from somebody talking about how last year with the LeBron situation just wasn't fun and it's nice to have this fresh start

or there's going to be something that's going to piss off somebody and we'll get a little back and forth? Does that happen? Is that happen for Christmas? They better have a pretty goddamn good winning record if it ever does happen. So if they're like 17 and 9? when it can happen. Yeah, maybe.

Where are you, House? I don't know. I'm not sure. Well, the time has arrived. Well, you have to pick. It's 45 and a half. Auger. You want me to go?

Yeah, you go. Over lock. Yeah. Okay. Lock. I am an over only because I think healthy Luca for 70 games with an entire offense being geared around him feels like 46 and 36 minimum to me. I have to go over as well.

And their conferences or their divisions. I'm shocked that you're in over. Yeah, I just, Luca's too good. Okay. I think he's going to be really invested. Not that he is in every year, but especially in this year.

This is now his team. Everyone's coming to see him. Everyone's going to be wearing Luca jerseys. And I just think he's going to, if he's ever going to have a career year, this is the year. Zach, what is, uh, did you make a pick yet?

I did. I took the over. Okay. They can't play defense. There's nobody on the floor. You know, they have one rim protector. You know, Utah tried that with Rudy Gobert. It didn't work. Yeah. It worked okay.

They won like 60 games one year. Yeah, yeah. But when he was the sole... You're talking about it didn't work for winning the finals. Make it the finals. And him as the only sort of defensive stopper. What's a Lakers game look like? Is it like a 129?

to 122. Is that what I mean? What's what? I mean, how many games do they win last year? Who was playing defense for them at a high level last year? That's the problem. And that's why one of the reasons I went over because I had the under for them last year and I was rooting against them and I don't like the Lakers.

And you get in these games with them where they're down six with four minutes left, but they have Luca. And he just starts tilting the last four minutes of these games and getting good, doing all the stuff he does. and I think they're going to be close to a lot of the teams and he'll be the he'll swing there are 500 team and he'll swing six games right I think Kessler's a legit really good defender and JJ Redick has shown the ability

to like scheme around his team's limitations and oh and like win the kind of marginal things that you can almost kind of control as a coach like they walk into every game bill you can conspiracy theory bill if you want with like a plus five free throw advantage every single game. They, Luca teams are generally like low- conspiracy bill. You could just have Bill for that one.

Lucas teams are generally low turnover teams. So I could see them like seventh in offense, 17th in defense, sixth in offense, 15th in defense. I just think 45 and a half is too low. They were kind to me last year. I was the only one to pick the over last year. So I'm going to go overlock. And the division stinking, I think helps them as well.

It does help. I agree with that. That's more than anything. That's really the case here. I mean, I'm going to lay, this is a rare instance where the price is minus 180 to win the division. I'm going to lay it. Yeah, I don't, I guess we could talk as we go through the rest of these teams. I don't know who the challengers.

Golden State over under is 36 and a half. I have them in the number two spot because the over under was 39 and a half when I did my layout. And it has now dropped three wins. And they are now plus 410 for the division. They're plus 110 for the play in plus 105 for the play and plus 110 for the playoffs. last year 37 and 45 big question for you house does it matter that step curry

will never win another title with the warriors what kind of question is that does it matter does it matter no it doesn't matter his legacy when we're talking about step curry in 30 years will it matter at all I'm going to say no

0% no no doesn't matter at all it's an amazing legacy he's a one of one he it's the greatest shooter I've ever seen he's I'm tiring with the Warriors. And that's just, it's very Dirk Nowitzky, mid-2010s, Mabbs-ish.

This is my team. I don't want to play anywhere else. I already won. I'm good. He's got a great life. Zach, did you watch the Sopranos? I did not watch the whole series. No, I got in and then I got out, and then I got interrupted, and it was too late.

It's on my list of like, I just have to sit down and do this. All right. Only House will get this joke then. I think he's in the Carmelo's Carmelas Soprano arc. Oh. of, he went great. Things are going. The Sopranos are kicking ass, winning titles.

We have the dip. Yeah. Like in the show, season five, Tony moves out. She asks for a divorce. She's going to get a divorce. She tries to meet with different lawyers. Yep. No lawyer will take her case.

Because Tony's compatible. She hooks up with the teacher for a couple episodes. Flirts with the priest. Eventually gets sucked back in. And then by the last season, she's just like, this is my family and I'm married to this guy and that's it. And I guess we're going to, I guess we're going to the diner tonight. We're in the Carmelo.

I'm just, I'm married him for life until he gets shot, basically. And I think Steph at some point over the last couple years, it was like, this is it. This is my team. I'm just married to this. And this is just how it's going to play out. And I don't really care. Is Joe Lake up, Tony? I think Draymond Green is Tony.

Oh, I like that better. And I think Joe Lakeup is probably Johnny Sack. And I don't know. Yeah, see that, now you're getting. This is good. But it's dirt cover. It's a little messy in Miami, too, where it's like, I've done everything I can do. And now it's like, I'll come.

I'm in the MLS. Come see me. I'll make some threes every once in a while. I'll be on in big TV days. I just don't think he cares. The big question for me, roster-wise, is if Yaxil is impactful this year, can that shift the over under at all? Like if he's, he's 24 years old,

it's conceivable he could come in and just be an impact guy. So now you have Draymond and Yaxel and pods, Curry. We have no idea what we're getting for Porzengis. They basically have no rebounder, shoplocker, anybody other than Horford.

Guy Santos? Hey, it's a wing guy. I like Guy. Yeah. Um, he's decent bench guys. Butler's coming back midseason. I just think it's going to be too much damage

in the first couple months here without Butler, not knowing where you're, getting for Porzengis, no Moses Moody, trying to figure out what this team is, that it's going to be too hard. I am shockingly going under, guys. Shocking. What's shocking about it? It's 36 and a half.

Like, I just would have been a blind over for me, basically until this year with these guys. What do you have, Zach? Yeah, go ahead, Zach. I'm an under as well. I think you outlined it pretty well. Worth noting, Steph Curry is 38 and missed half of last season with runners' knee.

And they just have absolutely no fallback plan until Jimmy Butler comes back and who knows how good he'll look for the first month or two and he's back if Curry misses games and Curry will miss games. And I also think, as we alluded to earlier, they could very well find themselves in a position where they are in the sweet spot of the new lottery system and that's the absolute best place for them to be in terms of their long term future. So I will go under. With a star player who would have complete buy-in on, yeah, we're not doing it at the end.

Anyway, the other problem is there's really good centers in the league now. And you could get to, you could kind of patch together the aging Draymond and Al Horford. And but they kind of needed Porzingis or somebody like that. And it just, I mean, we don't, Porzingis, this is the great unknown. They tried. Yeah, we have no idea what's going to have. I just, I'm penciling in a zero. Zero.

Yeah. Just for my, right. My projections and I'll be happy if I'm wrong. Yeah. That's right. And they misplayed this badly. It's a super under. The misplay.

the thing that they can't overcome is fucking up two incredibly high draft picks. There's just no recovering from Wiseman and Coominga with the team that they are in the way that they tried to... Or turning them into any sort of asset

either way with any of those guys. Yeah. So it's an under. It's a big under for me. I am glad George's Nyang is on this team. I've always liked him. I think he'll fit in.

I think he'll be a popular warrior. The crazy question, that almost could have been the big question is, has the Valks, have they supplanted the warrior as the team of Golden State. I don't know if you're following the VALCS.

I'm following the WNBA and the day there was breaking news. I didn't read it about where the actual finals games are going to be in Atlanta while we were doing this podcast. The team building of the Valks is an all-timer. So Lakers still gets to victory lap this year. It's like, yeah, we won four titles with Warriors

and then I moved my attention to WMBA. He's not that kind of owner to take a public victory lap like that. That's not him. Three unders for us. Yeah. Listen, Kerr signed a new deal. Curry signed a new deal.

J. Mon's got one left. I think this is a, this is a four to ten team. Are we going to use that as an official phrase? A four to ten? Oh, sure. In the lottery system? Yeah, four to ten team. And I think they get.

And I think they're 55 games in and they're like, we can try and we will try because we're a proud veteran team. That's still where we're going to end up. And I think the key for them is not to tank, but just don't go the other way. be like, let's trade two of our picks for this marginal guy who might help us make the play-in tournament. Well, one of the things that I had in my notes as I was trying to figure out the records, you could be a four to ten team, but also maybe be a playing team in the West.

Because there's a chance. There's like seven bad West teams and only three bad East teams. And a lot of the wins are in the East. And you could be in the like 36 to 38 range with a chance to kind of straddle. We had it last year. We had it last year. Yeah, they were 37. They were the 10th, and they were 37 wins.

Phoenix Suns over under 38.5. Plus 310 for the division, minus 1-10 for the playoffs. Their 2027 draft pick is going to Houston. They were 45 and 37 last year, but they were 14 and 16 in their last 30. My big question house, they have this team. The Duke kid's going to be the center. The kid you liked in the draft. Miles Bridges, Brooks, Green Booker, Gillespie, Kinnard,

also Goodwin Dunn Fleming Heismith they don't have any good picks until 2034 this is your team Phoenix

this is where you landed the clippers just had the biggest suspension in the history of the league and have more first pick assets than Phoenix does but this is how you where you landed

so for the off season got rid of Graysonown and Roy Sanil added Miles Bridges Luke Carnard and Pat Spencer this is what happened happens when you fuck up, right when the team, you know, is under new ownership and go all in

on a player like Kevin Durant for in a situation that made no sense. And even worse, Bradley Bill. And Bradley, well, the Bradley Beal, all they did was, you know, take on this salary. Took on all these dumb swaps. Yeah. So they're paying the price for that. I had to make a decision in looking at this. Yeah.

Between which roster I preferred. Between this and who. Phoenix and Portland. Oh. This was because this is. you know, this is where they're going to fall in terms of, you know, seven, eight, nine. And I think I prefer this Phoenix roster with Ott and with, you know,

the fact that because of what you just described, I think I'm going to play hard. And I like the character. I love how they, you know, discovered Gillespie. I loved how they discovered, discovered, you know, Goodwin. Dylan Brooks, I think is exactly the right place. I love what you did in terms of having them very highly ranked for fight potential. Yeah.

Dylan Brooks and Miles Bridges together. It's pretty tough. It's a tough guys. The big question mark is green. Can they can, is there any iteration of green that, that is, you know, can smell of offensive efficiency? Can we, can we get there with him at all? So I have a bigger question mark. Go ahead.

The center position on this team. Well, sure. When has Mark Williams come back? Torn labor. I think it's a long time. I agree. So you're basically rolling the dice with Malayuch. Close.

Close. Malayuj. Malawak. Malawak. Hey, I got it. You're rolling the dice with Maloof. The Maloof's are back. You're rolling the dice with the Duke kid.

But man, from what I saw from him last year, he seemed far away. Yeah, I agree. Like far away. This was like felt Wiseman Golden State-ish far away. I think Igadaro will start. Oh, so? At center. Oh, so.

Good luck with that. Sneaky contract extension candidate right now, by the way, keeping eye of that. But I think he'll start. I like him in the draft. One of my favorites. I'm going under on the Suns. I do think this is a really,

this is like a perfect line. Like I think the Suns are an exactly average basketball team on both ends of the floor. I have no idea. if this is going to hit under or over. I just think they got a lot of mileage last year out of just outworking everyone. And I think you get a little bit less mileage out of that

this season with no one tanking. Now they were not super healthy last year. Jell and Green missed a bunch of time, Booker miss games. I could go either way on this. I just think it's kind of just meh all around. And you add in Mark Williams already being injured, just slight under 38 and a half.

It's so funny you said that because my initial big question was, My big question. Blah? But I thought that was too mean. It's a blah team. They were a super fun team last year. The fans really liked them. And I just, they won it.

When 45, you said, I don't think they can get back to that this year. But they're good and solid and super competitive. The last 30 is really telling them to me that they only were 14 and 16 down in the stretch. They caught people by surprise in that first two months. And I thought they won a couple games. They shouldn't have won. And I thought they kind of came back to where they should be. What was their record against winning teams?

Do you have that in front of you, Zach? Yeah, 21 and 30. So that's not horrendous. Yeah, but there was a couple like, 24 and 7 against. End of the game wins that they had. No, I, yeah, you're right. So my thing with this, and one of the reasons I went under, because I think they'll be between 35 and 38.

And I think that's okay with if you're them, because after we get the top five, and let's say the Lakers went 45, 46, 7, 8, 9, 10, I think might all be under 40. Portland, Phoenix, Dallas, all these teams. I think they're all going to be clustered in that 35 to 39 range. And I don't think there's going to be an outlier. I think that's just where those teams are. Who's your favorite son when you do the Zach Lowe All-Stars?

Just like favorite guy to watch? No, I called it the Bill Simmons All-Stars when I had my call him. You called it the Marcus All-Stars, your favorite? I'll disqualify Booker just because he's too good. Yeah. I would say, coming for this is Rashir Fleming. I just haven't seen enough yet, but he is a freak and can do some stuff. I'll go Colin Gillespie. And I actually think there's an interesting conversation should he start over Jailing Green.

But he's just got a lot of moxie, man. He talks a lot of shit. He's snarling at people. I like him. If I were the sons, I would start, I would start Gillespie and make Green my sixth man and just be like, you're going to come in and run the offense. We may well get there. 10 minutes again.

Well, that honestly, they could probably sell that to Green. Why don't you go win sixth man in the year? Make your mark, Jalen Green. Show us that you can do it. I think his response would be. But I'm one of the 12 best players in the league. Why would I do that? Do you realize how good I am?

I'm Jalen Green. Can we talk about quickly the Luke Conard sucking in another fan base into the hope of Luke Conard and how that whole arc's going to be? I'm actually going the opposite way. I really hope you turn the corner last year. And I'm surprised the Lakers didn't bring him back because he's been searching for his confidence and searching for a home that shows confidence in him. And I thought, particularly

given how he played at the beginning of the Houston series, and he was like, what, he had 30 in a game in that series. Kind of died as the playoffs went along, though. I thought he had found a home. I think he's going to be completely fine as a seventh, eighth guy in Phoenix. And he's a solid player. Is he one of the top 37? I thought he found a home guys of the last 25 years, Zach? I mean I have I haven't conceived of what the criteria is for that list but sure

it always seems like Luke Kinnard found a home for about 20 minutes and then he's out another team this does make a lot of sense for him though they are sneaky good like I feel going under and them at only 38 wins it's disrespectful to Dylan Brooks everywhere Dylan Brooks goes

they're winners Dylan Brooks is a winner I don't know why the Lakers Anyway, right? No, they're not over for me. I think they're going to win the low 40s because I think they're better than Portland. I don't know why they signed Colin Sexton

didn't let Luke Conard go if the Lakers. I didn't get that one. I also get suspicious. I feel the same way. I forgot to say this with the Kessler trade. When Utah, who is clearly building like this whole foundation

that he seemed to be a part of, and then all the, a sudden the Lakers made some offer in Utah's like, okay, done, call it in. That would make me nervous if I was the Lakers. Why are they so anxious to put this guy in a trade? I guess because the package was so great. Speaking of packages that are great, the Los Angeles Clippers over under 27 and a half. They do not have their first round pick in 2027 because it is swapped with OKC or Cleveland.

So technically they will have a pick. They're plus 850 for the playoffs. Plus 370 for the play in. Last year, they were 42 and 40. Zach, my big question is, Yikes! Yikes! Why?

They lost Kauai Leonard, John Collins, and Nick Baton. They added Brandon Ingram on one leg, Keith Wagner, Ruehachamara, Max Struce on one leg, and Grady Dick. Starting five for the first Clippers game. Who do they announce last? Is it going to be Wogler or Darius Garland?

Who's going to get the spot in the Jumbotron, the last guy who does the clap hands and screams? Careful talking about Jumbotrons and the Clippers. Yeah, too soon. Not bad. They're starting Brooke Lopez, who's RHS. They're going to start Derek Jones. It gets hurt. It's seemingly every year and sometimes two to three times a year.

They do have my guy, Niederhouser. They have your guy, Bradley Beale. I don't think we have talked about this long. This is a hard under for me. I don't see how this team gets to 25 wins, much less 28. 27 and a half is very low. Tailu is a very good wins scrounging manufacturing coach. They are going to have the chip on our shoulder, try hard, outwork everyone,

try to restore some dignity to the operation. And yet, Brandon Ingram's already hurt. Max Drews is already hurt. I'm going under 27 and a half. In a league where everyone's trying, I just think I don't, even Jordan Miller is hurt. Like just guys are already hurt

all over the place I'm going under. And by the way, if you finish in the bottom three and you're up your pick, who cares? If anything, it's a little sticking. Yeah,

you've heard someone else. Yeah, you've heard somebody else. Under, under house? Under lock. It's a lot for me. Yes.

I mean, I got, the Clippers were one of my favorite teams last season. on this note of Ty Lou, I still don't understand why they came out of, at the beginning of the season last year, and we're so terrible over the first 30 games.

Still have no good explanation for why that team that threatened 50 wins. The previous season is competitive. I mean, there was a big scandal brewing. What did that have to do with playing basketball on the basketball court? The vibes were got weird. There were 6 and 21 at one point.

Not only were they 6 and 21. The, the very first game of their season was in Utah and they got blown out by like 30 and it was one of the all-time single game, opening game alarming like, whoa, something is not right here.

Like it would, they just look completely. We should keep that in mind for this year. They're opening five, the starting five for that team was, you know, it was, it was zoo,

it was Kauai, it was James Hardin. Like, what the fuck? I mean, it was alarming. And it is, something to put in your back pocket when we watch opening

opening night that Wednesday with all the games. If there's a team that has that kind of feel, like it's somewhat meaningful. We didn't mention how bad the home field advantage is going to be for them, home court advantage. Streetlights over spotlights, maybe. It's going to be. Are you going to go, find out?

I will go to a couple games. I will say I do feel bad for the people that work for the quippers and they didn't deserve this or ask for this. And, you know, they're in a good situation seemingly with a new arena and a contending team. And now all of a sudden they've been thrown into this, basically only because of a couple people. Under. I don't know if I'm locking that one yet. I'm going to wait until the end.

Last team, Sacramento Kings. They lost to Barr Rosen and Devin Carter, who is now going to be a star for the Celtics. They added Darius Acuff and my son, Ben Simmons. Division. If you want to look at those odds, 125 to 1. I don't want to look at them. 125 to 1, Zach. Title, 1,000 to 1.

Playoffs, 40 to 1. Last year, they were 22 and 60, and they kept Doug Christie. Their starting lineup is Sabonis, Murray, Hunter, Levine, and Akoff, Levine in a contract year. Raynod is already hurt. Maxim Renaud.

Monk is still there. Ben Simmons is allegedly feeling as good as he's had in some time. Achua is here. over 20 and a half, I don't even have a big question other than are the Kings talking to you, Zach? Yeah, we're all good. We're all good with the Kings.

You didn't mention Nee Clifford, who of all the guys, I'm actually probably the most excited to see what they have in him. They didn't seem as excited last year when they weren't playing him enough for some reason. Well, that's true. I like him as well,

but he just didn't get enough time. I'll just get it over with, I'm going over. on the Kings after calling them the Hindenburg. I was all excited to go over on them and have you guys react. Both of you guys do it.

It's fine. I'm going on. Oh, man. I thought it was going to be the only over. I am not doing that. It's just, it reached a point where it's just too low for a team that has

some actual, like, good basketball players and every organizational incentive to try to avoid the bottom three in the standings. It's just too low of the line. I'm going over. They, with these new rules and the fact that they have their own pick,

I don't understand how they wouldn't try to be the fourth best team, worst team in the league. You can't be in the bottom three. You're going to try. This will be fun the last two weeks as they're scrapping to get to the four spot in the lottery. I'm going to bring up their schedule and see if they have any of the games in the last two weeks against like the Bulls or the Nets or some of these other teams that are going to be down there. 21 and 61.

sounds fine. And I was encouraged by the A Cuff, Subona stuff in the preseason. I watched some Kings. I do think he's going to have the ball all the time. Season finale, I know the Clippers don't control their pick, but Kings at Clippers last day of the season, Bill, you got to go to that one. Wow. And guess who won't care about that game, the Clippers, because they don't have their pick. House, where are you? You dicks. Do it. You can't change your pick. I'm under. Yeah. I'm fine with it. I have no problem with him. Teenage wins. I mean, I believe in Doug Christie when it comes to this under.

I think he can get it done for me. Why did they bring him back, Zach? Inertia. The most powerful force in... We look around the league, all the young guys. Look at Sean Sweeney in Orlando. Look at Jordan Ott in Phoenix. We finally get to see Will Hardy.

Zach, do you want to do a Stephen A apology? Did you do Vivek in the Kings? No, I don't. I have nothing to apologize for it. But I do wonder, I do wonder also like how many, I don't, I've lost track of how many coaches they're still paying any amount of offset to. It may, it may not be any. I mean, Mike Brown's being paid in the handsomely by the Knicks. They may be done with all the, all the exclusion.

Had they broken the record for most executives who worked for them and then never got a comparable job like that ever again? Like Vladivac ran the team and is now, I don't even know what he's doing. he's in like Serbia hosting like the six to ten all sports show there or something I don't know where he went he'll be sitting next to Vivek it over under five and a half games this year all right to recap san antonio 60 and a half we all went over no locks Houston 48 and a half we all went over a try lock triple fave Dallas 33 and a half I went over house went over, Zach went under. Memphis, 30 and a half, we all went over.

New Orleans, 28 and a half, we all went under. OKC. You know what? I'm going to lock that one. House and I over lock. Zach just and over. Minnesota, over for me and Zach, under for House. That is 46.5.

Denver, 48 and a half. House and I went over. Zach, in one of the most shocking betrayals in the history of this podcast, under on Yokic. Portland, 41 and a half. We all went under. Utah, 37. I already regret this one.

I went under. You guys went over. Lakers. Over, over, over, 45 and a half. Zach locked it down. Golden State under 36.5. I'm locking this. You're locking Golden State?

Yeah. Under for me. Under for both of you. Phoenix. Under, under for me and Zach over for house. Clippers. Three, Under his house locks that one down.

That is under 27 and a half. And last but not least, the Kings, 20 and a half over, over for me and Zach, under for house, but a regretful under. I could see the pain in his face after hearing Zach and I lay out the case. What fan base is going to be the maddest, Zach? At us collectively?

Or individually. It could be one of us, could be all three of us. I think the Warriors fans are generally just really cranky right now. they'll be cranky at anyone who took the under and cranky at anyone being optimistic to take the over. They seem pretty cranky. I think Phoenix will get cranky.

I think they're just cranky in general. Portland has bigger fish to fry with El Chippo to be cranky at us. Yeah, they can't be mad. Yeah, plus we're going to Portland for a podcast. I should have taken the over just for that. I can't do it. I can't do it with a jogging backward. All right.

That is it for part one. Part two is going to go up. We'll probably put it up whenever it's ready because that's what's going to happen. Don't forget to check out Zach's The Low Post. It's out. He's writing again. The fingers are working after a two-year break. You can hear a house.

I'm ringer wise guys tomorrow. Friday. Friday? Okay. And we'll be back for part two as soon as it's done. Thanks, guys. Oh, and thanks to Ghala, Eduardo, and Chris and everybody as well. Must be 21 plus on president's select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino

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