The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The East | with Zach Lowe and Joe House

Episode Date: October 14, 2026

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe and Joe House for Part 2 of their 2026-27 NBA Over/Unders pod, as they discuss the win totals for every team in the Eastern Conference. (0:00) Intro (3:24) Knicks (13:48) Celtics (21:26) 76ers (35:48) Raptors (45:06) Nets (56:05) Cavaliers (01:03:30) Pistons (01:12:10) Pacers (01:21:37) Bulls (01:28:35) Bucks (01:37:13) Magic (01:43:20) Heat (01:51:15) Hawks (01:56:19) Hornets (02:03:39) Wizards (02:19:20) Recap Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Zach Lowe and Joe House Producers: Chia Hao Tat, Eduardo Ocampo, and Chris Wohlers Download Uber Eats and order now. http://ubereats.com The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit https://fanduel.com/playwithaplan to learn more about the resources and helplines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Bill Simmons podcast brought to you by the Ringer podcast Network where we put up part one of this episode, the annual NBA over under his podcast. We did the West. Joe House was involved. Zach Lowe, he was involved as well. We took a break. Zach Lowe made chicken for his daughter. I don't know what House did.

House just disappeared for a while and came back. I don't even want to speculate. Caffeine. Oh, is that what it was? Stimulance. So we started with the West with part one, which I was way less excited about than the East. The East includes the Boston Celtics,

my favorite team, the New York Knicks, the champions of the world, Joe House's Wizards, which perennially when we do this, they're always the last team in the over-unders because they always have the worst over-under and they're stupid, whatever the division is. Southeast, flags fly forever. We're going to start with the champs, the Knicks.

Over-under is 51. and a half on Fandu. Division plus 180, conference plus 270. Title 10 to 1. One seed plus 360. Can I wait? Can I stop you for one second?

Yeah. I just want to get comfortable. It's a little, still a little warm in here. I just want to make sure that I'm ready for the, I mean, I want to settle in for the east. We're going to be here for a while.

Let me get comfortable. Just for one. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Let's keep it PG-13 here, please. Oh, my God. Okay. Wow.

I thought you were going to break out the eat a fat big dick, eat a big fat big. They haven't said it to me yet. They haven't said it to me. I'm waiting on that one. I was so excited. I thought you had a switcher. If we're going to do a tray young t-shirt jersey, that's coming. I have that too. Listen, I was on a jet blue flight on Saturday watching Seltzixers preseason.

Pretty sure I was the only one on the plane with that one dialed up. Which one? The Celtic Sixers preseason game on Saturday night. Multiple moments. where I was like, man, Paul George just looks great. He's moving so well. Hugo, four from three, baby. Yeah, thank God.

I've been trained Hugo. Then Tatum's out there with Paul George together, and I'm just like, man, look at those two, how well they're moving together. All right, the next. Let's do it. 51 and a half. Last year, there were 53 and 29 and went 16 and 3 in the playoffs.

Last three years, there are 53, 51, and 50. Before I get to the big question, the year after the life-changing title for a fan base, which doesn't happen very often. 2005 Red Sox lost the ALDS. 2017 Cubs lost the NLCS. 2017 Cavs lost in five in the finals. And should have lost in four,

but Game 4 is still one of the most suspiciously officiated games of this century. And then the 1995 Rangers lost in round two. There was a lockout. So that's recent history of life-changing titles. usually the team doesn't win again. First team champsack logo, one of three ways.

They jump a level and become scarier. That was the 91 Bulls. The title took so much out of them. They're a little more banged up the next year. I think that might be like the 2009 Celtics. Or they have the disease of more. Everyone's sacrifice for the title. Guys put their egos aside.

A selflessness permeate. the group. Everyone elevated each other. Gave up stats, gave up numbers, gave up things. And then the next year happens and everybody goes, what about me? What about my minutes? What about my shots? What about my extension? If you had to guess one of those three things for the next, what would you guess, Zekla?

I'm going D, none of the above. They're just going to be just fine. I guess the closest would be one where they go up a level, but I don't really see them going up a level. and they can't go up a level from what they did in the playoffs. But I don't think, despite all the extension stuff, I think all those guys are pros. I think they'll be fine and they'll play professionally.

And I don't see any kind of remember what scenario number two was the hangover. They get worse. A little more banged up. It took a lot out of them physically. Oh, that was. I mean, they got out of the playoffs pretty unscathed. They didn't have to play that many games. A lot of their games were blowouts.

So I'm going to go closest to A, but really D, like this team's just going to be fine. House? I totally agree. I think that, I mean, they're a tiny bit worse, and we'll talk about the rosters and so forth, but they're, this is a built for the postseason basketball team. There may yet be a move for them to fortify the front court

because I'm not sure how much they're in love with Andre Drummond, but they're fine. Is he on the fall out of love first team, All-Stars, Andre Drummond? Teams have fallen out of love with him a few times. Yeah, for sure. I think that's, I think no one, no one loves them anymore. People just are tolerated.

I'm leaning a little toward disease of more, but I want to see how the first couple months play out. Just a little bit. I think town specifically with the extension, and I heard what you said yesterday to Mahoney, Zach, about the, would you say, four years, 200, basically, 50 a year. That's, that's reportedly, I can't confirm that, but that's reportedly the offer.

That's fair. By the way, the reason they traded for towns was because he made so much money, Minnesota was freaked out by the contract, and that was why they were able to, you know, give up what they gave up for him because people thought he was too expensive. He was on our worst contracts list multiple times. Yeah, but then he came in to the Knicks situation and was worth the money. The problem is if they don't finish this before the season,

they're in a real issue here because it basically, that it carries out, and then he has the player option. And there's going to be teams that have cap space that are pretty excited. Like, I'm looking at a team like Charlotte, for example, which I think, I don't know what their caps based situation will be, but they have a lot of expiring stuff. We'll see what the Miller extension is. But there's teams like that that could make a couple moves and all of a sudden

say, yeah, we'll take Carl Anthony Towns for 55 a year for four years. I think he's going to age pretty well because of his, you know, his game. but I'm watching that one. And also, you know, everything went right in the playoffs last year. Brunson became more famous. There's just in general a bigger spotlight on this team. This team is famous now, which leads to my question, the big question. Is Jalen Brunson as crazy as this sounds?

Now the NBA signature star? No, I don't think so. I mean, not in a world where Victor Wambiamma is this 7-6 curiosity, who's the most dominant defensive force we've ever seen, and he's only 22 or 23 or whatever he is. I don't think so, but he's not, he's not far from it. And I was thinking the SNL thing, which we've talked about, how many guys realistically could have hosted SNL that are in the NBA right now,

other than LeBron and Wemby? Curry. Curry, there's three. Like, does Luca get that? I don't think he does. No. Anthony Edwards will. I don't think he's not famous enough.

I think he will. He's not famous enough yet. If the Lakers win the championship, Luka would get that. I'm just saying right now. Like, I don't think Jason Tate was famous enough. Donovan Mitchell will go on down the line. But Brunson, I just think, is massively famous now. And it would struck me like, because we were always talking about,

oh, my God, the international guys, who's going to be the American, who's going to be face of the league, all that crap. And then in a year, it got solved. Jalen Brunson is the most famous American basketball star that we have. I would say he's in the running for most popular because of how big the Knicks fan base is. He's respected, incredibly fun to watch. I think he has at least a couple good years left.

We'll see small guards how it age. But it struck me thinking big picture about this league. He's the best clutch guy in the league too. Just big picture. Like, fuck, Jalen Brunson beyond the title and all that other stuff. He's got the big piece of chicken at the dinner table now. Deserves it. Deserves it.

What were the odds of that in 2021? I'm going to say like 300 to 1. A thousand to one? The whole thing is a long shot. Jalen Brunson becoming a top seven player in the NBA, whatever you think is floor is. I mean, people want to say top five. It's hard to crack the top five.

You want to put them in there for what he just did? I can't really argue that much against you. And then hosting Saturday Night Live, like season premiere of Saturday Night Live. It's crazy. Truly, this like Derek Jeter level famous all this. sudden. We'll see how many years he could stay at this level and we'll see how many years in general for the Knicks because my whole half, half decade rule with contenders, I think this is

a three year contender run for them now. Usually means they have two left. From changes from last year, they lose Mitchell Robinson, which is not insignificant. Replaced them with Drummond, we'll see how that goes. They got Bruce Brown. I may slight under on this 51 and a half just because of the pattern that this team has had in regular seasons in the past of, eh, there's a malaise, ah, they didn't show up. Oh, they're playing well again. Oh, now they're not. And just being up and down. And I don't think they're going to really care about the regular season either. I don't think they ultimately care if they're one, two, three, or four. I think they just want all their guys healthy. They're not going to have the tanking teams

this year to beef the record up against. And I think it's somewhere between like 48, would be where I land on them. So I'm a mild and apologetic under because I still think they're the favorites in the East. What do you have, Zach? I'm right there with you. Very, very slight and unwilling under. You nailed a lot of the issues, possible championship hangover. Fine.

They deserve a championship hangover. And I also, you know, the East is really, really strong, top to bottom. They had great health last season. And in general, just like, I had a hard time with the East because there are so many good teams in the East. And you can't, as I was going over overs and unders and win totals, like I've got to, I had to pick a couple of top tier East teams to go under on because I think there's just going to be a huge scrunching of all these teams sort of close together. So, you know, just 53 wins last year. I could see 50, 49 on the low end this year. So I was a slight under.

Yeah, you have 52 games in the East House. Yeah. And you're going to have 44 of those games or 45 or whatever are going to be against teams that actually give a shit. And then there's Brooklyn and Milwaukee. I do want to point out, Knicks were incredible at home last season. 37 and 12 straight up at home, New York Knicks. Including playoffs. Yes, because they wanted to show everybody, you know, when the fans come to their stadium, right?

this is what we're going to give you the treat that you deserve. A lot of those were those comebacks, those giant Knicks comebacks that became the hallmark. And I don't know, just basic regression, I think, says that you're not going to have that. I'm an under. I like this better when it was 52 and a half. I thought one of us would go over, but. Well, they've won 53 last year.

That's the right kind of number for them. And they got 53, like, right at the end of the season. And so I like this when it was 52 and a half. And then I played a 52. That's good. but I'll go ahead and go under. I don't mind. 51's not disrespectful.

I think they win 50 or 51 games. There's a bullseye thing with them too now where every time they play anyone, it's the most important game of the month for that team. Right? You play, like they play, pick anyone. The Cavs, the Sixers, the Celtics, like, oh shit, we're playing the Knicks.

We've got to bring it tonight. So it's just a lot. And this team over the course of a regular season has just been a little too erratic, but that's fine because all that matters is the playoffs. To be clear, because we all went under, I will pick the Knicks to make the finals. So I don't want Nix fans to be like furious about it. I think they're the best team in the conference,

but I just going slight under on their regular season win total. They need their guys to be healthy come April. And we've seen them, you know, different guys have taken different months off regular season-wise before. And they have to solve this backup center thing. It's not going to be Andre Drummond as the solution. I am between them and one other team for the finals and I'm not making the decision. until Tuesday next week. Boston Celtics, over under 51.5.

Same as the Knicks. Division plus 210. Conference 5 to 1, title 14 to 1. Last year, there are 56 and 26. And I'll ask this question of how, since he's wearing the t-shirt. What if the J-Land trade turns out to be a home run for the Celtics?

Well, what if we're like, holy shit, what a smart trade in March? leading the witness just to where you want him to go. So what if? It's the words start with what if? So I don't think that the trade is going to be a home run. What is going to work out for the Celtics is the arrival of Mitchell Robinson and what impact that has specifically on one player that becomes a version of himself

that was disappointing on the offensive then, and that's Derek White. I think the additional possessions that the Celtics are going to get without really understanding. I mean, they acquired Mitchell Robinson knowing what he's capable of. But like taking those extra possessions and putting them into the Missoula combobulator and letting that sort of, you know, radiate out, it's going to be, they're going to be an incredible regular season team. The question marks I have, the skepticism I have, the reason that I wouldn't endorse the trade is because complex. playoff time, let's see what this looks like. Let's see what this team looks like.

I'm not convinced that they're better than either the Knicks or the Sixers come playoff time. I have no notes. I thought you laid it out perfectly. I will say for the regular season and watching them in the preseason, they're deep. Tatum looks great. Paul George, who they really only need 50 games from, and they have these other young guys that they can just kind of move in and out. depending in the game. They're very

kind of schedule, flexible with their lineups. They can be like, oh, tonight's a Ron Harper game. Hey, Hugo's going to play 30 tonight. Oh, we got some Sharman. And by the way, Sharman looks great.

It looks like he added like 10 pounds of muscle. So I think they're looking at, Tatum's basically replacing Brown from last year. And then this George, Hugo, Shireman, a little Ron Harper, and then more Peyton Pritchard shots. And I just think they can replace

all the J-Lan offense. So then it comes down to style stuff. And again, it's preseason. But we've all been watching preseason because it seems like people, the players and the teams actually care because the preseason is so short.

They were doing some really interesting stuff with Paul George as point forward that felt a little different than and I'm not going to bash Jaylen. I love Jalen. But it felt a little different than when Jalen was to point forward where it almost felt like

Paul George was like a giant point guard running the offense and trying to find stuff. and they just had a lot of size. And I thought it was a good use of him. The team chemistry seems great. Everybody seems really happy. And I don't think they're going to have minutes issues or anything.

I think they're going to be a really good regular season team. And I don't know what that means for the playoffs, but for regular season, I think they're going to be in the mid-50s, Zach. Who says no? Hugo Gonzalez for Kevin Durant and the Nets pick Unprotected, Bill. What else can I get? I thought the over-under was 50-a-half, by the way. It went up.

I texted you yesterday. Oh, I missed that. The two over-unders that went up or down was Minnesota went down in 46-5 and Boston went up. Another one. There's been some Boston action. I'm still taking the over. I took it at 50-and-a-half. I'll take it at 51-5.

Regular season wins machine. A little health issues with Paul George and Mitchell Robinson that make me slightly nervous. I don't think it's a no-brainer, but I'll take the over. It's interesting with Mitchell Robinson. let's say he's going to go out for six weeks. They do have Garza who, you know, played big minutes for them last year, and they won with, you know? I'm not saying regular season.

The greatest. For regular season, you can plug him in and it's not a disaster. The Mike Conley thing has been interesting. They just love him. I mean, everywhere Mike, it's unclear why Mike Connolly just doesn't run for president. Maybe he should run in 2032. Everywhere he goes, people just love him and follow him like the, the Pied Piper.

But him and Paul George, like a couple of vets, which is good. They took care of the Pritchard thing with at least an extension for one year. And, you know, you mentioned the Derek White thing before. I think part of the reason for that is teams, the whole season were basically like,

Jalen, go nuts. We're going to guard you one-on-one, and we're going to stay with the other shooters. And if you beat us, you beat us. And he, to his credit, was awesome and did it. But I don't think White had the same kind of shots that he's going to get this year. I think he's actually going to go up.

You don't agree with that? It's already happening. Like, it starts phase one is colonoscopy despair. Phase two is, I think I'm talking myself into the trade. Phase three is I've now talked myself into the trade. Yeah, that was August. Phase four, which officially began today, is prefacing a sentence with, I'm not bashing Jalen Brown.

I won't do that. But we're getting to the final phase, which is the turn to the dark side. And I think I'm made Thanksgiving, maybe. I'll never do it. I love Jalen Brown. Okay, good. Like, wait until the end of March.

Wait till this team, you know, has 59 wins, is the clear one seed in the east. And, you know, the Celtics Nation. We just went through this. Celtics Nation had a... If Philly starts bad and the Celtics are good. And this set of expectations around this Celtics team, when Tatum came back, you know, all of a sudden,

and the, you know, Hoops Commentariat was guilty of this as well. All of the talking chattering class, like, well, the Celtics with Tatum back. Let's go ahead and maybe put them in pencil to make the finals. They put the second best odds in the finals. I understand that. It was not well-founded. So we'll see. The Mitchell Robertson thing is important.

He's won over my dad. My dad for his entire life has loved people who just get rebounds. he was just raving about how giant he is and he just, you know, he knew it because we used to go against him with the Knicks. But he was just like, this guy's, so basically they turned Jalen Brown and appalled Georgia Mitchell Robinson.

But they also have full Tatum back. And they won 56 games last year in a conference where, you know, he had nine tanking teams out of the 30. So I feel like it's in 54 to 56. For me, this is, I hate to do it, but I think it's a lot. I don't think you hate to do it,

just for the record. No, I love it. I think you love to do it. I do love to do it. I think this is a lock. Missoula has proven that day-to-day week-to-week, he MacGyvers the regular season. And it's like, oh, I guess it's a Ron Harper game tonight.

And they're winning in Cleveland by eight in the fourth quarter. This is what they do. So three overs. All right. Oh, I made the lock as well. Oh, okay. For the avoidance of that. I'm just, I'm not going to lock just out of spite.

I'm not getting the Uni lock. No way. No luck. The, uh, the questions would be, Paul George, how many games? How many games? games for Mitch Robinson and then obviously Tatum. And what kind of minutes can they put on Tatum?

He looked absolutely spectacular in the preseason game I watch. But can he go back to being a 32 minutes, 72 to 75 games guy? Okay. Buckle, where's my camera? I'm going to go to my solo camera. Buckle the fuck up because we're about talking about the Philadelphia 76ers. 49.5 is the over or under. Division plus 250 conference plus 410 title.

10 to 1. Playoffs minus 550. Play in-house plus 280. Oh, thank you. You didn't stare at that one for a second? No. It seemed to be the 70. I do want to be on record.

I bet the Celtics to win the division at plus 210. Okay. Like that price. Better than 2 to 1. Their 2007 first goes to Brooklyn, but it is Top Bay protected. They were 45 and 37 last year. They have added Jalen Brown, LeBron James, Anthony Simons, LeBaron Filin, Dean,

and Contavius Caldwell Pope. They lost Paul George, Kelly Ubre, Quentin Grimes, Kelly, and Kelly Ubray, I put it second time, because apparently that was a huge loss. The big question, Zach Lowe. Yeah. How will the 76ers handle scrutiny, adversity, and anything else ending in ITY

as this season goes along? That includes unity, UNITY. Pick another ITY. Ty. Nudity? Anything with an ITY? How do they handle all the ITYs this year? Look, LeBron has seen it all.

Joel has seen it all and been the butt of it all. Jalen Brown has been a finals MVP. He's just gotten traded in the most high profile, sort of like what trade in a while. I don't think much is going to phase them. Now, you know, if they're 8 and 10 after 18 games, it's going to be a little crazy. But I also think, reflected in this line,

there's a certain expectation that, like, we're just not going to see the starting five together, all that many games. It's going to be a little clunky at first. I think for whatever reason, well, for all the reasons, people are giving this team a little bit of grace compared to a lot of past super teams. LeBron is almost 42 years old.

So I don't worry about that. I really don't. It's going to be a circus, but it's not going to be like the heat in 2010, like LeBron bumping spo on the way to the bench, is it all, the sky falling. This is a failure, blah, blah, blah. That one thing with the Embed

was laid to a practice. Mike Breen, the nicest guy alive somehow has to apologize, Stephen A. Style, for having the wrong information, which I'm not sure he had the wrong information. House, we haven't talked about this on a pod,

I don't think. What is your biggest concern with the Sixers? Other than Joe Al-M-Bee playing 35 games. They don't have. have a backup center. It's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's bona. So I think of this Sixers team as basically a team that's going to play in,

you divide the season up into thirds because it doesn't make any sense for LeBron or Mbide to be, you know, playing many more than 50 games each. I mean, and Embed, 40 seems fine to me. But I do believe that the majority of nights, we will see. Maxie and Edgecombe and Jalen Brown. And that solves, you know, a lot of what you hear people saying, is there the, how do we share the ball? How do we, you know, all those kinds of things.

And I think they'll experiment over the course of the season. So you feel like those three guys for 68 to 72 games each. Yes. You know you have that. Yep. And then at different points in time, they'll bring in LeBron and Embed for stretches. And I think they're going to be very targeted about it.

I haven't sat down with their schedule to say, this is the point where they should try. Here's the 10-game stretch where we're going to experiment. But I think that they will break the season basically up into thirds and say, you know, we have this runway, we have all this depth, we have high-level talent, we won 45 games last year, we can be in the top four if we can get to 50. The number is perfect at 49 and a half. I think 50 is a reasonable goal for this team.

And, you know, we have proof of concept that Maxi, as a facilitator and edgecombe, that works. So let's layer in Jalen Brown. Will those three guys like playing together? I kind of think they will. I think Dean Wade's super underrated what he's going to bring to the table for this team.

So basically their bench of Simons, Dean Wade, KCP, Bona by default. A little bar low. I still like Phylon. I still feel like he's going to be heard from. You know, obviously I've been following this league my whole life and we've seen situations.

this before where you have teams with a lot of famous players and accomplished players. And, you know, I think that 08 Celtics is probably the best version of how this all plays out, where you have guys who are at specific points of their career, who were all good on their own, but it reached a point where they wanted to sacrifice for the greater good. I get really nervous when you have teams where I'm not sure guys are at the right points of their career for a team like this. And that's what I've been thinking about all summer as I try to figure out how scared I am of the Sixers. You have Embed who breaks down every year, who has never really proven that he can be a guy who can play four rounds in the playoffs, who has all of his own stuff to

prove. He is not Kevin Garnett in 2008 saying, I've done everything I can. I'll give up my five to six shots. This is the last thing, my last hurdle. I think Embedd's trying to still prove I'm one of the best parts of the league. I can play all the time. He's not at that sacrifice yet. LeBron, every time he's been asked to really sacrifice, it always feels like it's begrudgingly and we always have to hear about it from a bunch of different reporters. Like, how, no, it's true. It's like, oh, man, it's just unbelievable what LeBron's doing. He's all about winning. Like, we always have to hear the dialogue in real time about it. Jalen is the one that really worries me with this because Jalen went from being the guy to now be.

being the supporting actor in a giant movie that he gets a couple scenes with Matt Damon and he gets a couple scenes with DiCaprio, but he's like basically the Alec Baldwin part. Just set some picks. We might need you some night. We're not going to go to the end of the game. Stand over there.

I don't know how he's going to handle that. Maxi, who still hasn't proven, he's a top 7, 8 guy who can carry a team and is right at the point of his career where he would love to do that. Now has to worry about all this other stuff. And then you have Edgecomen year two. who's trying to prove that he's a real guy in the league.

And I think he will be and I like him. But it just all that stuff worries me when kind of nobody's at the right point of their career for a team like this. And I can't get past it. Was that a long prelude to an emphatic under? I'm going. I'm going under. I am. I have them in the mid-40s.

I thought you were going to zag. I thought I was going to, I thought I was waiting for all that said. No. I'm going under. I think they're in the 43 to 45 range, and I don't think they're really going to care that much. Woo! Lock it up then.

43 wins. Not locking it up. That's crazy. I think the East is really good. I think they're going to have stretches where they go like three and seven and ten games, and everybody's writing about what's wrong with the Sixers. And I would not want to see them in a playoff series, period. So please don't, we're talking regular season only.

I think it's going to be up and down with swings and a lot of coverage. And I think once there's blood in the water, we've seen how the media and the blogosphere and the podcast all react to it. The moment something's unhappy, we're going to blow it up. The moment somebody has a quote somewhere, the moment somebody's official media spokesman on whatever podcast or show talks about how something's unhappy and everyone's going to blow that out. And it's just going to be, we saw this with the heat in 2011.

I think it's going to be like that. So, and then it'll get to the playoffs and it might be fine. But I think it's going to be up and down. So I am under. What are you, Zach? The fully actualized version of this team is the biggest threat to the NICS in the playoffs. No question. I don't know that we'll ever see the fully actualized version of this team because of all

the health issues. But even like the version where Embed is semi-healthy and able to be load managed through part of the playoffs, I think is still among, if not the most dangerous threat to the NICs. I just regular season, I think if I'm feeling, if I'm feeling, Willie, my goal is I don't care where I am as long as I'm in the top six. If I'm in the top six, I'm in. I don't have to exert myself in a play-in game or two to get in. I get a week off or whatever it is.

I think that's hugely important to them. I am going a little bit under 47-ish wins is fine for me. I just think 50. I think there are just too many moving parts, but I don't worry about the one ball problem. I'm not worried as much, nearly as much as you are, about the drama. And the anonymous, you know, this guy was late. This guy said this in a film session. Maybe that comes out.

Maybe it won't. It's going to happen. I mean, remember it happened when Embedd was called out in a film session for being late and he lashed out of like, I'm going to, we can't have this coming out of our locker room. Maybe they got another system. But I'm going a slight under only because also similar to the Western Conference. I have a lot of like overs in the meat of the Eastern Conference and I need to have an under

at the top. So that's the Knicks and now it's the Sixers. So where I looked at my notes, I wrote them down for 45 wins. So you had them at 47. So we're two apart. Where are you house? I have them winning 50 games. So I have them as an over.

And I don't think that they're, I like it. They end the game stuff. Like what you're describing in terms of your concerns around Jalen Brown, they are going to feed him. I think Maxie is bumping up against that top eight or 10. Remember the conversation we were having about Maxi through the first like 40 games, 50 games of the season last season. where everybody was skeptical of the Sixers,

and Maxie's like, fuck that. Don't be skeptical of anything. Now, he did lead the league in minutes. Nick Nurse does ride his horses. He does. But here's the thing. Jalen Brown will help that. Maxi doesn't have to.

Jaylen Brown wants to play. He'll play 2,700 minutes if you put them out there. And the good thing is, you know, some of the sort of concern I've seen in the run-up to the season around how will this work is, will it impair Edgecombs development? Well, I don't think him playing with Brown and Maxy's going to impair his development. And I think under the tutelage of LeBron, you know, when he's on the floor with those guys.

At the stage of his career, he's brand new to the league and he gets to play in a circus. So there's something to do that. Hey, LeBron, can I talk to you after the game? I can. I'm flying on my helicopter. 10-01. I'll talk to you to borrow. I think Edgecombe is going to develop just fine.

I think the Sixers team top four in the east. So they get home court in the first round. Not that it matters, but that's where I have them. I think the end of the game stuff is going to be an actual thing. If it beats out there, you have to give him the ball. I mean, maybe there's been times in the preseason, the one game he played where he was in the corner here and there, they'll just have to mix it up. That's basketball.

That's what happens when you get a lot of good players on your team. I think, honestly, like, a team that's trying to win the championship this year, and that's what the Sixers are doing, whether you believe in it or not, should not have Vijay Edgecombe in the role that he would have on a bad team in his second year. That's not a realistic thing. And the edgecom, the pause I had going under was, despite LeBron being 42, we know MB's going to miss games. Edgecombe Maxie Brown is a really nice four to have on a nice or night basis. This was a hard line for me.

I really just had to have a couple unders toward the top of the east. And this felt like one just to have. I wish I felt better about their backup center situation. and the 20 to 50 games, somebody else is going to have to play all the center minutes for them. It feels like there's guys out there, though. It's really not. The Bagin.

I'm just saying at some point, they can address it. We'll see. I think in the playoffs, it's a completely different conversation. Regular season only. There's one other thing I wanted to mention. I was thinking about there's this incredible LeBron subplot.

Of all the times, he plays a team where it's going to feel like a huge game, even though he's going to be 42 this season. Cleveland, Toronto against Kauai, the Celtics, his biggest rival, the Knicks, the champs, Miami, Dick Teased them, obviously not a lot of good blood there. Lakers, kind of a weird exit. Houston, KD, Golden State, Curry, Dre, and Kerr,

and then O KC in San Antonio. I just listed 10 teams that it's going to be like, whoa, LeBron against Blank. and it's just because he's been in the league so long, he just has a lot of these now, you know? The idea of LeBron in a playoff series against either Cleveland or Miami is very, very delicious.

Toronto. How about Toronto? I mean, it's Lebranto already. He's been there, done that. I would put, you think Boston's his biggest rival over Golden State? Do we face in four straight finals? Boston was his biggest East rival for the first,

I don't know, 10 years of his career. That was the mountain for him. Yeah, for sure. Then it became Golden State. Yep. Is Golden State? I compared Steph Curry to Carmelo Soprano in part one of our podcast. I don't know Golden States, anyone's rival.

House, Jack and NYC had this email for you. Uh-oh. He knew you'd like it. With LeBron ending the process and Joelle and B. looking skinny coming into the season, I was thinking of some fitting new nicknames for Joel. GLP 21 or Joe Zempick. Joe Zempec?

Joe Zempic. Yeah. Joel is that? Yeah. Yeah. I just think maybe he's pretty good. He's in shape. Okay, three unders for us.

No, it isn't. I'm sorry, two unders and an over. It's going to be a man. Toronto Raptors, over 46 and a half is the over under. Division 5 to 1 conference 9-1, title 22 to 1, playoffs minus 270. Their draft pick goes to the quippers this year. They were 46 and 36 last year, 16 and 14 in their last 30. But that was before they turned Brandon,

and Mamu into Kauai Leonard and Alan Graves. And before we even talk about the Raptors, I want to predict right now that Alan Graves is going to be Zach Lo's favorite bench player in the entire league. Oh, wow. Yeah, something. I think there's going to be... Not bench rookie, bench player.

Bench player. I think you're going to have a whole, now that your fingers work again, I think there could even be an Alan Graves post in your future. I think you're going to be completely fascinating. by him every time he's in the game. I mean, on his own team, I'm assuming Colin Murray-Boyles

at least starts the season coming off the bench. Another Zach Lowe favorite. Couldn't be more excited for that. The big question, house, is Kauai a villain? Is he disgraced? Is he totally the same? Is he better off? What is he? I hate to answer a question with the question,

but does it matter? I wrote down next. Does he care? I'm sure he does not. He for sure does not care. He does not care. Will this be fun? Will it be weird? Will it be elephant in the roomie? Or are we just all going to move on? Well, it's going to be fun for him because there's proof of concept. Toronto loves him. He is a beloved, you know, welcome.

He's not a prodigal son. Or is he? I don't know. Does Toronto love Kauai or did they appreciate Kauai? They love Kauai? Is there actual love for him? he was there for nine months. It's appreciate. It's appreciate. He won them a goddamn title. The city is so starved for, you know, the Maple Leafs haven't won in a million years.

The Raptors were an afterthought for so long. And then they, the Lowry DeRosen teams just got, you know, punched down by LeBron year after year. I think appreciate more. They love Kyle Lowry. They love Kyle Lowry. That's good point. They love Kyle Lowry. Great.

Great. Okay. I get the difference. So we all think Kauai. could care less. I'm positive of it. The next question is... I think he already forgot.

I think he's already like, what happened over the summer stuff? Do we think Kaua can still be an all-N-B-A player for the Toronto Raptors? One million percent. What would the argument against that be? All right. Injury. Just availability.

Just injury. That's all. We all agree on that. Do we like the Raptors roster that includes Murray Boyles, Scotty Barnes, who made a leap last year, R.J. Barrett in the contract year. quickly's back, Graves. Walter, I like.

Jamal Shed. Yeah. Zeklo loved his contract extension. Defensive. They have Jackson Davis and hopefully Jakub Pertil with hopefully a new back. I feel like we all like this roster. So why isn't this an automatic over?

I think questions about the level of shooting, Kauai's availability, spacing, depth. And just again... I feel like they have depth. I mean, they have Shed in Murray-Boyles is six and seven,

and Walter is eight. That's a very good top eight. You're right. Beyond that, I get a little nervous. I think grades is going to be nine, and you're going to fall in love with them in 10 games. I think battle comes in and swings the quarter. So maybe they have enough depth.

I think it was a little mucky on offense last year. Kauai should be a salve for all of that. I just think it's more. The East is really good. I'm sure the line is factoring in that Kauai plays 50 games or 55 games and what do they do when they don't have him. And, you know, 22 and 30 against 500 and above teams last year, 24 and 6 against the rest. You know, it's just I wouldn't get too ahead of my skis on them as like a regular season juggernaut. But I will take the over on this line.

Hawaii's going to play because he's not going to have to hold his availability hostage to get more payments. well, not knowing about how he was getting paid. I mean, here's the concern with Kauai. He did it last year. That was an incredible... He played a full season. Incredible season that he had last year. Yeah.

When's the last time he did it two consecutive years? That's my issue. 2011 draft. Year's 16. Yeah. This is my issue. I... He used up all of the, the Juvenation juice last season, and it was a waste.

I really wanted to zag and go Raptors. under. But man, Murray Boyles and Barnes and Coahill out there together at the end of games just sounds like a fucking nightmare. Look out. It really does. I also think Barrett is a pretty interesting trade piece for them.

If that's somebody that isn't going to maybe be their long term and maybe they've moved their money in a specific direction, they still have the ability to flip him for something. Whether they want more shooting, whether they want to roll the dice with like a

more expensive center. Who knows? So there's two things to say as I look at this number. First of all, it's Kauai Leonard replacing Brandon Ingram. It sounds great. They won 46 games last year. And Murray Boyle's year two. Why is this number of 46 and the half? Because of Kauai's availability. And the East is really good. And it just stayed right there. Because people don't know how to price it.

People don't know how to price it. Like, I'm taking the over. I'm not making it a lock. Well, here's the other thing. I flirted with Locke. I flirted with Locke and I had to talk because I think this is going to be a really good regular season team. Yeah. My Kauai sustainability concerns are more about playoff, like survival and sustainability. Playing every other day, yeah.

But I had to, I'm not locking it. I had to sort of walk myself back from like lock status. They were two and 22 against the top six teams in the West and the top three teams in the East. House and that were going crazy last year because we had the under for the Raptors and driving us crazy. Somehow they hit the over anyway. Because they beat the hell out of bad teams. They ended up with an above 500 record against the above 500 teams, but against the top upper echelon,

the top six teams in the West and the top three in the east, two and 22. They didn't have Kauai Leonard, and they had Brandon Ingram apparently playing on a partially torn Achilles tendon for a lot of that. That's the answer. That's what you have to come up with. It's an under for me.

I think they're going to win exactly 46 games again. Zach, is there any way they could turn Barrett and something else? than the Kyrie if Dallas is kind of punting on this year and doing one more four to ten year. Sure. Sure. You know, you got to sweeten it with probably a pick, two picks. I don't know how many picks and other stuff, swaps. Barrett's a really interesting player because I simultaneously think he's become underrated.

And I agree that I wouldn't be shocked if they trade him. I wouldn't be shocked if they decide they're better with him as a sixth man and Jacoby Walter starting. although I don't think that they would really have the institutional fortitude to make that move. But he was their leading score in the playoffs, I think. And he's become a pretty good. He was. He's become a pretty good three-point shooter.

His defense hasn't come along as much as they had hoped. But he's like a really good all. He does a little bit of everything. And somehow that the jack of all trades master of nothing leaves you sometimes wanting more. But sometimes I think you have to look at him and be like, I'm pretty satisfied. This guy's like 25 and 5. It's a pretty good player. I'm not just willy-nilly throwing him into trades.

Yeah, I wonder for an extension. He's probably in the 23 to 25 a year range with a lot of the other guys we mentioned in part one. But if he thinks he's getting more than that, he's not staying. For the record, I had Toronto over last year. And I never sweated it for one second. I had the under with somebody. I had a wonderful over with that.

What do you have for this year? It was in the mid-30s, under 46 and a half, because I think they're going to win 46 games again. in this year. Slead under for house. I didn't say it. I think this team's going to be kind of a nightmare when they have all their dudes together. This is one of those on the schedule where if you're whoever, you're like, oh, fuck.

I got Kauai, Murray Boyles, Barnes, and that fucking Graves guy. And I got to deal with all of this. You got a Graves jersey yet? Love Graves. You're going to love them. I'm telling you. I didn't like them in the draft, but I watched him for a half. in Summer League and I was like, this guy's amazing.

The Phil Simmons experience. He is, he does your favorite things, Zach Lowe. The rope-a-dope across half-court pass where it seems like he's running back, but he's not, and then he just jumps and takes it.

Quickest you turn on a rookie ever from I hated him in Summer League to I'm now so high on him that he's going to be your favorite player coming off the bench. I think he's going to be good. It's going to be hilarious when he's in the G-League all year. All right. Last but not least. Oh no. Last but least. Last and least. The Brooklyn Nets. I'm not even reading the odds. They were 20 and 62 last year. Last 30, they were 5 and 25. And good news. They don't have their first round pick. Houston gets to swap with them. They're over under is 24 and a half. And my big question house, could Brooklyn execute the first ever zombie tank? What's a zombie? be tank. It's how I think at least one bad team will handle not having a 2027 first rounder

where you want to be in the bottom three because you don't want your owner being like, what the fuck? Why did we end up in the four to ten and we just gave them the first pick in the draft? Why did we do that? We're going to be in that bottom three, right? The question for me, they did this when the Celtics had their picks and they just treated the pick like a sunk cost and they didn't really care what happened and it was to the, and then there was another year where they did care

and they were posting up Brooke Lopez for a month straight as my dad was going nuts. Will it be more the sunk cost version or will they do what the Pelicans did last year? We're like, we don't have our pick, let's just go for it. What would you do if you ran the Nets?

You mean the Pelicans went for it last year and still only won 26 games? They were 10 and 20 in their last 30. They were like trying to win. But what would you do if you're the NICs or the Nets? Is that you don't care? This is my favorite team.

The two ball nets. They can't wait to give out two balls. They have two balls. In fact, I might put two balls, the Nets logo with some danglers. The same Keseau's balls? That's what they're going to be. It's exactly right. It's the two balls' nets.

You think this is whoever's dribbling over half cork gets to shoot? A thousand percent. Can we bring Tyreek Evans out of retirement to play for this team? I read a summary that said that they're rebuilding. They're done with the tank phase. And now they're in the rebuilding. They've turned the corner. I'm like, look at this roster.

What fuck corner did they turn? Rebuilding, building, the building. What's the right word, Zach? Rebuilding. They're still rebuilding. I think you guys are being mean. You're being mean, okay? Yager Jolman is going to be really good, I think.

Okay. I like him and McHale Brown. I like him too. Settle down then. I like Mikhail Brown Jr. I think those guys will be an interesting backport. You'll like him for the 22 games he plays this year. Good.

Julius Randall and Michael Porter Jr. are a little. legit NBA, good, like, low-end borderline, all-star kind of players. The line is 24 and a half. It actually, listen, now look, this was a tough. The East was really tough for me because all the logic would say that because of the lottery odds being the way they are, you should look askance at like really low lines and take the over on them. And yet I looked at Brooklyn and a couple other teams.

And I was like, well, A, you're outlining the incentive correctly. They actually don't care if they're relegated. It might actually be better for their pick to be relegated. And so I don't think they care. And I think the opposite also applies is that with everyone else trying harder, there are just no easy games for a team that's not very good. And so that could apply the other way. I also think that, look, Jordy Fernandez will have him playing super hard.

He's a really good coach. All of that. on paper, this should be an over. But given everything I just said, and the fact that part of rebuilding is, I think Michael Porter Jr. is sitting there eligible for an extension. This is the other piece. Yes. Did they feel like a potential sell team? So I'm actually going under on 24 and a half, despite the logic being all the wind totals would be scrunched toward the middle. I'm a hard under. And that's one of the big reasons is I don't think Porter Jr's on this team in February. Zach, is that an ethical under?

because you were nice about it. And Simmons and I were unethical under because we were so mean. I guess it's ethical in the sense that I think if this team played balls out all year long and played their young players and their veterans and all that, they would win more than 24 and a half.

They would win 25 or more games. Okay. They still might, but I'm going under. Fine. Zach runs into people work for the Nets, like when he goes to a Nets game or a next game and tries to, you know, he's like he does not. Pleasant happy guy.

Don't send me a text, Sean Marks. That's what. And they go, why does Simmons hate us so much? What does he have against us? I don't have anything against the Nets. I just think they're stupid. I think they run the team terribly. That's what I have against the Nets, incompetence.

They do dumb shit. And by the way, if Ishbiyah hadn't thrown them the all-time lifeline of an unhappy superstar on a big contract who wanted to get the fuck out of there and was picking his team, a.k. Janice last summer and all Phoenix had to do is waded out and stayed Phoenix is like,

here's everything. Take it all. If that hadn't happened, this team would be a fucking catastrophe. By the way, they should take a Darius Aikoff in the draft. I'll say it. But it did. But it did happen. And then they even flipped the bonanza for even more with the McHale Bridges trade, which is worked out fine

for both teams. And so now it's time to turn those things. into things. And that's why the brown pick is going to be such a huge. I got a bunch of first rounders from a team that's going to win 50 to 55 games over here. The five first rounders. You just said the Knicks had a three year window and that's it. We're already in year

two of it and you're in your telling and those picks are like further out than that. The Nets fans are gone. This is like when they when you're watching those movies where they have the makeshift business in an office that everybody can clear out in 40 minutes and then the Fed show up

and nothing's gone and there's just you see the computer wires. And you're like, there was definitely an office here. That's the Nets fans. They're gone. The Nix ended the Nets. And guess who else ended them? The Liberty.

You go to Barclays for a Liberty game, and it's 100 times more than the Nets. The Nets are done. It's over. They need to move. The office you're describing was already firmly in work from home four days a week. There wasn't that much to take out of the office. But you're correct about, they really did lose an entire generation of fans.

Whatever, whatever a chance to. they had at the young generation 12 and under fans is gone. They're all Knicks fans forever. They have lost the city. It's a rap. They're not getting it back. It will never get it back. And people will go to Barclays to

see the other teams. And that's their destiny. They're basically the clippers in the 2000s. You have nothing else say house? I agree with all of that. Okay. It's a true. It's a triple under. I took under. Yeah. Okay. I will say I like a couple of the nets.

Gemman's good I enjoy clowny I think he can have a moment on a real team I have I have a small whiff of Treyori stock there's something there

I don't know what he's like 15 years old and I'd like Josh might not when he was on the Celtics I still feel like I haven't given up on him either on a bad team

there might be something I'm going to go to sleep tonight and it like two in the morning Think of me saying I like Josh might not. And I'm going to just start screaming. I enjoy clownie! I enjoy clownie!

Am I wrong? What's wrong with clowning? No, he's fine. It's just the most random player to enjoy that I could possibly imagine. I just never thought I would hear you say the words. I enjoy clowny. They lost Nick Claxton,

who I think hasn't been good in at least two years. He had a cup of coffee, but that's better. I think this is one of the worst rebuilds in recent history. I'm just in awe of how bad it is. They tanked the last two seasons and ended up with two rookies that I'm not even sure will ever make an All-Star team. The five first round picks in 2025 will be an all-timer. I think Joe Man's going to be good. I mean, maybe I'll plant my flag and scoop up.

And they fell to what, what is he, the eighth pick or something? I mean, they fell like Jordan Friedan has won too many games and so they didn't get where they wanted to go. And, you know, it's not like they picked Anthony Bennett or something with the number one pick. They had a mid-first round, mid-lottery pick, and I think he's going to be pretty good. Could they go back to New Jersey? That ship has sailed. Swamp Dragons, baby.

New Jersey's red hot right now. Netflix is moving there. Real estate's on fire. People like Jersey. Maybe they need a stadium. Would you rather have... Could they move Barclays, like when people move their houses

to a different location? Is Barclays too big to do that? Can they just move it? They have the hockey stadium. They can't play in Prudential where they play hockey? I would think about it. Just make the... Barclays the Liberty Stadium. What were we going to say, Zach? Just the, like the three picks

right after Jomon, Murray Boyles, Mollahawatch, Coward. I think you'd still, as much as my optimism exists for Jolman, I think you'd still say I want Murray Boyles and coward over him long term for sure. Oh, really? Malawaj, no. Yeah, I would much rather have coward and Murray Boyles. Okay. Well, that was a rollicking first, for us. It's all downhill from here. We're going to take a break. And then we have the Central coming up next. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by

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The Central Division is here. We're going to start with the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're over under is 40 and a half, plus 125 for the division, 9-1 for the conference, 25 to 1 for the title. They do not have their draft pick. They are plus 750 for the one seed. They were 52 and 30 last year. The big question.

Zach, if you can't win a title with James Hardin, which I think we've proven, why would you then double down on two more years of James Hardin? Back into that contract, he's going to hurt. I would just say what... How about the front end and the middle end? He was good in a preseason game this week, and people were like, James Harden still cooking.

Of course he was. It was the preseason. What's going to happen when he has to play defense in a conference finals game? We saw it four months ago. This podcast is about 48 and a half regular season. It is. It's a great point.

were my alternatives? Like I, they, the Garland trade, I was surprised that they just sort of gave up on Garland and it was obviously a huge win now move. I thought, you know, it made some sense to them. I don't know what else they could have done this summer. They tried to get LeBroni didn't come. And so what with no cap flexibility. I mean, they had to like shed a gazillion salaries to get Peyton Watson, which is a worthy gamble for that. You know what else happened? Kenny Atkinson, I don't know if you saw this. Analytically, he thought they won the summer. All right. Okay. What else were you going to say about the calves? No, I'm not, I don't trust the calves in the playoffs, to be clear.

Like I am Fox Mulder on all these Eastern Conference teams. I don't trust them. I don't trust James Hardin in a big game, not exactly a scorcher of a take in the year of our basketball gods, 2026. But I do trust them to win regular season games. I just think they're too talented in the starting five. And the first three or four guys they have coming off the bench, I have a lot of faith in. And I'm going over and I will be.

make it a lock. Wow. That is so strong. Love that strong take. Really like it. Okay. I have two questions for House. You were a big Peyton Watson fan because my question was, what if they were wrong about Peyton Watson? Because this was the all-in special. They have no capital, no assets, no cap space. If this doesn't work out with what they just built, the next move is to trade Evan Moble. Yep. because now you need to settle down juice whatever is in that white cup like fill it up i'm just saying we're out of moves if it's like shit we need to make a move we are now and evan mowbly is the

move because that's there's no moves left now i mean just got a huge extension is going to be i don't think people are lining i don't think people are lining up for that jaredown contract you're you're trading carl townson the hornets and evin mowbly around the league set a poor glass to settle down I'm just saying if it doesn't work out this year and the trade game blame game starts getting played, not a lot of options. All right. But you like Peyton Watson. I do. I think that he is exactly what this team needed.

I was glad to see, you know, they really battled. I think that the seasoning of their very tough road through the playoffs. Yeah. It's like extremely valuable. That's the floor raising effect for Mobley. I hope because they're in. entire fortunes really reside in what is Mowbly's ceiling. We kind of keep saying it every season, and he kind of does get a little bit better,

and then he goes quiet a little bit. That was my next question for you. Give us some questions. Go ahead. My next question for you was, is there any kind of leap left for Mowgli, or is this where we are? I think there's still a leap. Has he topped out as an 18 and 9 guy. He was 30% from three last year. So the three point shooting barrage has not taken.

off. Yeah. Four years, $223 million left. And they, as far as we can tell, would not talk about him for Yannis. Right? I certainly heard that. That they, that they would not. They would not. And they would not talk about him for Jalen Brown either. Seems like they wouldn't. Do you hear others? You heard otherwise? No, no, I don't, I don't, I don't remember up to my head. I would, I would damn how I'm going to get aggravated on NBA RumorNet.com. I don't think they did, but I don't remember. His name, I didn't feel like it was floating around. The Peyton Watson thing, I talked about this in my podcast.

You're really betting on that 19 games he played when Yokage wasn't there for most of them, and they had to run the entire offense to him. And I have real questions about how much ball time he's going to get on a team with Mitchell. But are you really betting on that at 22 million a year? Are you betting on that he's the lockdown defender? that you need and makes enough corner threes. He's going to have to be. But we have a three-year sample size with Denver

where he wasn't that, right? And then year four showed flashes of it. He played in year three, he played like 14 minutes a game in the playoffs for Denver. Yeah. He was basically like their 10th band. It was a mistake.

Maybe. His defense has always been legit. I don't worry about his defense at all. I just need him to make sure the shot from the corner in particular is real. I just want to raise my hand. I'm pro-Paeton Watson. I just wonder, was that, that's it.

You're all in at this point, and that's your move, and you're not 100% positive. He can be your fifth guy, glue guy guy. So Zach seems more convinced on this. Well, I mean, the guy you're really all in on that we've barely talked about is Donovan Mitchell's $76.4 million player option in 2013. I mean, that was the real all-in move. and there's almost, I love Donovan Mitchell more than almost anyone in the media.

I'm always higher on him than you guys when we do all NBA stuff. You guys us. Yeah, you guys do. There's almost no chance that that's a good contract. And there's like almost 100% chance that it ends up being a bad contract at the end. I'll never say anything bad about a Greenwich Country Day graduate. They lost Max Drewson, Dean Wade, and added Peyton Watson. It feels like a sideways.

He had a Hizonia. Yeah, baby. People like Thomas that they got in the draft. There's some Tomlin stock that's been out in the market. They like Thomas. They like Thomas. He had a big summer league too. I was a hard over for the Cavs.

I think they're in the low 50s. Look at that. They lock it up with me. Come on the Cleveland Lock Island over here. You know what else? They should be in the low 50s because they're spending about $300 million for this team. Like they end every draft pick asset they've had. They're doing exactly what they're supposed to do.

They made it. You know, you got Donovan Mitchell to a conference final. So, fucking lock it down. No, I'm just over. I'm just over. That's it over. Yeah. It's a regular over for me.

Three over is all that rigamarole and everyone's over about 48 and a half, which is not a small number. The funny thing is the market's moving in that, you know, it was 47 and a half for a while. People are like, oh, wait a minute. That's a low. I thought the division odd for them, that was going to be a big.

I made when I was in Boston last week. And it's just plus 125 is like not enough value. Kind of think it is. I wanted that to be in the plus 150 range. All right. The weirdest over under of the entire two-par podcast, the Detroit Pistons, 47 and a half.

They're plus 145 for the division, 27 to 1 for the title, plus 850 to be the one seat again. They were 60 and 22 last year. The big question, Zach, a 60-win team kept their top three. All of them are healthy, and they're over-under-dropped 12-and-a-half wins. What in the fuck just happened? That's what happens when Tobias Harris leaves in free agency.

Is that it? It's a 12-win Tobias Harris departure? I think the conference got really, really good. The playoffs left odds-makers, I guess, unconvinced that this was actually a 60-win team. and convinced that it was a little bit of a paper tiger in a tank-tastic year where they just racked up wins against crap teams. And, you know, probably, probably, maybe,

probably would have lost in the first round of the playoffs if Franz Wagner didn't get hurt in the middle of that series against Orlando. And then you throw in the Jail Endurin thing. Thing? Which part? The contentious holdout or them telling him he was their fourth best player? I don't believe, where did that come from?

Because I don't, I mean, even if you were doing that as a negotiating play, I couldn't figure out who the three better than him are. I don't think you would just, I don't picture anyone being like, hey, Jalen, just FYI, you're our fourth best player. And B, who's the third best player? It doesn't make any sense. But it made the rounds for two days. It doesn't make any sense. And so I don't believe that that really happened or I, or some like Pistons mid-level front office guy was like, you know what? I'm sick of this.

I'm going to tell you what I really think. jail in Duren. And then, you know, deeper conference, all that. The line falls to where it falls. I am worried they lost too much toughness house. I love beef stew and this team. I'm not sure what happened. Clearly, they felt like it was time to go.

But I loved having them, and I thought the combo of him and Durham was great. Tobias, I really enjoyed the Pistons the last couple of years. Tobias, they went to him all the time. He was K'd backup plan for two straight years. And got, I thought pretty good shots in the playoffs, got good shots. It's something that San Antonio will probably tap into with him. So losing him and beef stew, I didn't like that at all.

I didn't mind. I've never liked Lavert, so that's fine. John Collins, I watched on the Quippers last year, and I just don't understand it. But the analytics like them, but by eye test, didn't really match it for me. Isaiah Joe, I've always kind of liked, but I can't tell if, you know, coming at, like, is he just where he should be? It was like a heat check guy everyone's around. Then a Corey people like as a guard.

But I guess the big thing for them with the over-under to beat this is if Thompson goes up a half level offensively. That would be. They have to have it. That would be the X factor. My question, my big question, who is going to help Cade Cunningham? It's the end of the game. They run every single thing through him. Who's going to catch the ball and make a shot when he's double team?

They're worse off? I watch John Collins. It's not John Collins. I watched it last year. It's not Durham because it feels like teams unlocked how to stop him. It's not Thompson. Duncan Robinson going around screens. He wore down as the year went on last year.

I have the same concern. I'm under. I can't believe I'm under, but I'm under. I think this is like a 45-win team. John Collins from three, the last three seasons, 37, 40, 41. That's all I want. I'm not handing the ball to John Collins to be like, go do stuff. with the ball. All of these concerns are very legitimate concerns. This is a team that really

tried to get Austin Reeves and thought they had a real shot at him down to the wire, didn't get them. That was their cap space bullet. They know what they need. They still have all their picks and a bunch of tradable contracts to go out and get that player if they want to buy it. I think that's something you have to consider with this number. All of these concerns were preexisting and they won 60 games last year and seven playoff games. You can quibble with how they got there and what happens in the first round if Franz doesn't get hurt. So like none of that is new.

I'm going over because I think the floor of really good defense, tough rebounding, Cade and some more shooting around him is just good enough in the regular season to get that many wins. And I think we're over-indexing on Duren's failure in the playoffs.

Like I think he'll be closer to the guy he was in the regular season in the regular season, which is what this is about. So I have them at 45 because I think the East is so good. I was just basically subtracting four to five wins

for a bunch of different teams. And to me, this is a 50 win team last year that now I have to put it at 45, but I really worry about the scoring beyond Cade. I thought Tobias was really important for them last year. And then the year before, our guy Malik Beasley,

was also important for them. They just had these wild card scores. And unless it's Isaiah Joe and I'm missing something, I don't know who the wild card score is for this team. Best record in the league versus above 500 teams last year. Oklahoma City, 36 and 16. Spurs 35 and 15. Pistons 34 and 16.

Wow. Impressive. They kicked ass in a regular season way. You know, I think they had the best record in the NBA on back-to-backs. I think there was something like 12 and 2 on. And played well. without Cade. And this is the regular season. We're talking about the conference being deeper, no question. I'm not saying they're going to win 55 games. I'm just going over on 47 and a half. I think it's too low. Yeah. And the number, it dropped too far because the number was 49 and a half.

So I'm not sure what happened. I don't have an answer to the, we know what happened. Fair question that Zach asked, what between 49 and a half three weeks ago and 47. The third thing, I think freak people out. And he's coming back. That's reading too much into it. I think Zach's absolutely right. We don't need to overdo that. or whatever reaction we're going to have. What other reason would there be for the overrunner to go down? I don't know. Nobody got hurt.

48 is a very reasonable number for them. I'm taking the over, even though I don't have an answer to the fair question. Zach Pose, he puts it in the context of John Collins. They're not asking John Conn. Here's the ball. Go do something with it. Who is that guy? I don't have an answer.

Here's the ball guy that's not Kate Cunningham. Go do something with it? No answer. But they are good enough to win 48. I think they're hoping it's, I mean, you guys, you asked with Mobley, different phases of his career, but is there another leap there? And you just saw Jalen Brown take a very unusual, like, late mid-career leap. I don't necessarily think there's like a leap leap for Evan Mowbly.

I do expect continued like just he gets a little better at this, a little better at that. And I think part of that process for Asar Thompson. That's the answer. Is a little more on ball stuff, not like a mega leap where it's suddenly averaging 18 a game like his brother or whatever. But like enough of that when Kate is on the bench that like, That's part of this, part of the solution, not the whole solution. Counter.

Playoff teams are playing five feet off him in the playoffs. It's the, that's the playoffs. I'm not, like, this is about, I'm not expecting any sort of offensive surge from him yet. Okay. I'm not a lock. You're attempting me to do lock this up because I'm, Zach went over, I went over, you went under. I want, you know what? F it, lock it.

Oh, I love it. I love it so much. Troy basketball. It always is good to make decisions when you're irrationally upset about something. Zach, Troy, basketball. I like it. I could see it.

Listen, there's five teams who are all in this over-under range of 45 to 48, and we're going to be wrong about one of them. My biggest fear going under for them is what you laid out before, Zach, about the trade possibilities. And, you know, Mahoney threw this out last week on my pod. And I've heard a other place

too, but could this be a Kyrie team and what would that look like? Because they have a Corey to put in the trade. They have contracts to put in a trade. Like, it actually is a nice match and could Kate and Kyrie together? That's kind of interesting. Would be kind of nice. Stay with

your under. Don't start. Don't stay with your under. Own it. Eat it and I'm locking in my over. Locked it. All right. I want you to buckle up, but then also put the strap over the shoulder buckle up. The double buckle up. You're telling people to buckle up?

The roller coaster buckle up. It's a roller coaster buckle. Indiana Pacers. 44.5. There, plus 2.90 for the division. 50 to 1 for the conference, 41 for the title, minus 185 for the playoffs. To be the one seed,

I have this a bold Joe House. Yeah. 18 to 1. They were 19 and 63 last year, and we're 6 and 24 in the last 30 games. And yet, in their last 63 games, including the playoffs in 2025 with a healthy Tyrese Albert, they're 42 and 21.

They're 11 deep. They have proven identity. They have a franchise star is back. They have added Zubats. They added Kelly Ubre. They didn't lose anybody. The big question, Joe House. Why isn't this the sleeper in either conference?

Well, I think it is. And it was the very first bet that I made as soon as the win totals came out. It opened at 43.5. I took an uncomfortable amount of money and put it down on that. I'm somewhat surprised to see it only climbed by the one game to 44.5. I think everybody is, you know, trying to figure all of these teams in this class that you're describing here. If you give Indiana a giant bump, what are you going to do? with the Toronto Raptors and what are you going to do with Atlanta and what are you going to do with Detroit?

If you give Indiana this enormous leap back up into the upper 40s, maybe low 50s, how do you know, navigate that and especially if the east is as tough as we think, I don't give a fuck. This team is absolutely loaded. I think that they were very intentional with the way that they played out last year. In every respect except for the forever before. defundling decision to not protect all the way through five in terms of the pick they got for zoo other than that they're they're they're right for it the only i mean god damn if they had gotten if they had kept that pick too on top of everything god damn they couldn't protect it they couldn't

protect it well what happened happened in the bottom line is they have zoo on this team who i thought was better two years ago than it was last year before i got traded but i think he was hurt fair enough I think you desperately need somebody like that in the East. And look, they, you know, Hal Burton comes back. The league's trying to build these stars. They have his first game is against New Orleans. It's not on national TV, anything like that.

It's just on league pass. And I think it's, I think they're just adding it to the fuck you file. I think the Pacers have a giant fuck you file. I think they're mad that they didn't win the title. I think they all feel like they would have if Hal Burton hadn't gotten hurt. And I think they're being discounted this year

in every conceivable way. They're not being mentioned at all. I'll tell you this, before we get to Zach's take, I have the Knicks or the Pacers, whoever wins that series makes the finals. There you go. And I'm going to decide on Tuesday,

but I think the Pacers are really scary. And I don't care that Halbert missed all last year. I think they're going to be really good. This is an absolute unequivocal luck over 44 and a half for me. What do you have, Zach? Well, I can tell you three guys who are not going to be in the fuck you files of the Indiana Pacers and it's us because I'm also going over.

And the House explained very articulatively why I went slightly unhappy unders on the Knicks and the Celtics. I'm not the Celtics. I went over on the Celtics. The Knicks and the Sixers because I'm this whole batch of teams I'm going over. Now I'm going, I'm going to Zog a little bit because I'm not that optimistic as you guys are about Indiana's regular season win total, mostly because I've seen Tyreys Halliburton

and play a preseason game, and he looked pretty good. I do expect some ups and downs as he comes back from an Achilles injury. By the way, he had ups and downs when he was good. Remember? He would regular season. He would kind of go up and down a tiny bit.

And the year they, two years ago, when they made the finals, I believe they won 50 games. Nemhart and Neesmith were both injured for a large part of the... They were like 500 after 30 games or something, and then they hit a... So I do think they're going to be over.

I do wonder if like you guys are being a little too enthusiastic about their regular season fortunes. But yeah, if they get to the playoffs and they've found that vibe that they had, that rhythm that they had, they are extremely dangerous and nothing about what they did in the playoffs was fluky, even though it involved the greatest run of crunch time shot making, probably in the history of basketball by Tyrese Halliburton. I will go over them. I have them at, I'm looking it up, 52 wins. Yeah, I'm not surprised to hear it.

I am going to bet them at plus 290 to win the division. So that's why, you know, Cleveland to win the division at plus 125 doesn't move, move you. You have to have something on the Pacers to win the division. I'm thinking more like 47, 48. Yeah, that's fine. It is. Plus 290 for the division. I like that one as well.

You have to have a small ticket on it if your ceiling is 52. I'll say this too. other than the next starting five, I think this is easily my favorite starting five in the East. Zubat, Seacum, Needsmith, Nemhart, and Halberton. That checks all the boxes for me.

I love that starting five. It's a basketball team. That is like a Bill Simmons basketball team. It's literally why I have the Raptors at 46. I trust this team so much more than I trust the Raptors. I mean, the Raptors are, it was a nice story last season.

Two and 22 against the really good solid team in the league. I'll take Rick Carlisle in this group that made it to the NBA finals two years ago. Six are starting five with like a little bit of a word though, Bill. Well, but how many times are we going to see it over the course of a season? I know with the five guys I mentioned, I'm going to see them for six months. I like the bench too. I still like I like the Huff topping combo. I feel like I do.

I think that's that's the night like Zubots isn't playing tonight. Oh, we're going to play J. Huff. It's like, okay. Jay Huff. J.F. F sound like you, so you pop, you someone like, you pop in the oven for dinner. Anyone want that little huff topping tonight? You know what it's like?

Huffing is phenomenal. That's a Stouffer's French bed pizza in the in the freezer. I demand, can I make a small entreaty to this group? Can we please get J. Huff into the dunk contest this upcoming year? Jay Huff wants to be in the goddamn dunk contest. Wait till you see him pregame what he,

what he's capable of. This is an acrobatic as all get out seven footer. He has them all. every dunk. He does them in pregame. He goes around. He's just, you know, getting them off. He's a great three-point shooter. The Huff element on the bet. I don't want to overdo his role in terms of this team. But get Jay Huff into the dunk contest. Please. Can either of you name the winner of last year's dunk contest? No chance. No. I can't. No chance. I believe it was Kashad Johnson from the Miami.

I would be able to name the winner of the white guy slam dunk contest if they did that. Well, Jay Huff is it. Jayhuff. The odds-on favorite. And I'll say with Ubrey, who I think is a little bit of a punching bag sometimes, and he's bounced around, and, like, Golden State didn't work there. And, you know, he's had a lot of cups of coffee in a lot of places. I thought he was really good in the Celtic series.

I think he really defended Jalen well, and I thought he was impactful. Like, that guy, he's a playoff rotation guy. Maybe you don't want to play him 30 minutes a game. Obviously, T.J. is still there. As you know, Zach, I've always loved

Jarris Walker. Still waiting for him to have his moment. And I really like Shepard. Me too. I think Shepard's good. Well, I'll forever have a soft spot

in my heart for Shepard because I had great seats for Wizards Pacers games last season. And we were there early enough for shoot around and Ben Shepard rolled the ball to my kid

and let him take a shot from the sideline. Oh, Ben Shepard. Bad mother. I love that. So are you locking this down? Lock.

It's a lock. It's a lock. No lock for me. No lock for you. No lock for me. Sorry. You know what else is great about rooting for the Pacers? This is a team that was in game seven in the NBA finals

and their best player blew out as Achilles on the court. And if you can't root for that team to find redemption in some way, you don't have a soul and a heart. Interesting. You're giving me a much different version of like 2014 Spurs who were on another level as a regular season team. but like the use the ultimate heartbreak from the previous year's finals as fuel.

I like this. Yeah, I'm all in on Indiana. I think they're going to be really good. And I think, anecdotally, I think within the league, I think that's, this is the team. The other players are kind of,

kind of want to see what happens with this team. Sure. From an upside. Because Tyrese has that respect. Yeah. Chicago Bulls over under 29.5. Probably the best placed over under this entire podcast. It's perfect.

You could just debate whether they're going to win 29 or 30 for five hours straight. 10 to want to make the playoffs. Last 30 games last year, there are 7 and 23. They finished 31 and 51 overall. New coach, Tiago Splitter. They lost Anthony Simons. They added Caleb Wilson, Nick Claxton, and Norm Powell, and have one of those starting fives that on paper is kind of delightful.

Big question, Jack. What is the highest possible ceiling? of a Caleb Wilson rookie season for you. And have you watched him? Have you done any work on him yet? Oh, yeah. In your head, what is he? I mean, the highest possible ceiling is rookie of the year, for sure.

What are the stats look like? 21, 8, and 5. I think the shooting efficiency will be a little iffy. But defensively, I mean, he and Guzzellas have a chance to combine for four blocks a game as forwards, which is pretty rare. There's like a little chemistry thing going on with them already, too. I think those guys are like, let's fucking roll for the next couple years here. Let's run.

We just get to run. We're going to run. Giddy's going to push the ball up the court. Norm's going to sprint to the three point line. We're going to run the wings that they're built to, this team is built to absolutely fly, which is how they played last year and how Splitter's team played in Portland, too. It's shocking that a team that's been as completely incompetent as the Bulls. Now, they have a new front office, but the GM they had, I think, was in the running for one of the worst of the last 10 years.

years. But really smart moves across the board, right? Nick Claxton, who I don't love, but if he's going to be on a team, you'd want him on a team like this that's going to fly up and down. Powell, who maybe he could take or leave on certain teams on this team. They're probably going to be running offense for him at the end of games, which he loves. And then Caleb going to this particular city that has been dying for really anything. And I said this to House and House made a groaning noise like he does when a Porterhouse comes out. Caleb Wilson

genuinely reminds me in T-Mack. Yeah. I feel like he's taller T-Mack. At UNC, and it was just like, is he K-G? What is he? And he's all pieces of different things. And there's going to be pieces of different players.

But he reminds me in T-Mack that last Raptors year, when we started to wonder if there was a little more there. It's like, oh, maybe he's not Scotty Pippen. What is this? But he's taller than T-Mack. And I just think his stroke on the three is is so pure that I think he's going to shoot way more

threes than I expected. So anyway, I'm all in on him. Why wouldn't you shoot? Why wouldn't you do whatever the hell he wants? He's the future of the franchise. They're not going anywhere this year. But it's interesting because I remember during the draft, you would hear scouts be like, well, he's a four.

He's going to do big man stuff in the league. And then people around him kind of push back and say, no, he's going to be like a big wing who handles the ball. And it looks like he's trending already much more toward that kind of player with the size and athleticism and shoplocking and rim protection of a big man. So all the intrigue is well deserved and merited. So I went under because of how good the conference is and because I think this team will be incentivized to be a four to ten team. I don't think they have, there's 11 teams in the East that all think they can win 45. games it up.

And we have 10 playoff spots. And the Bulls are not going to be a playoff team. So at some point, they're going to have to look at each other and be like, all right, let's make sure we don't drop it in the bottom three, but we're right around this 4, 5, 6, 7 range. And then add one more piece to what they have.

I don't love their bench either. It's just a poo-poop platter of guys that other teams didn't want. Buddy Healed, who's now been on every team in the league. Zach Collins, Akoro, Jalen Smith. I'm just not a huge thing. Patrick Williams is still on the team.

So this is a pretty easy. I like Jaylon Smith as a backup five. I think he and Trey Jones are a really good six and seven off the bench. After that, it's a. I can't get excited for Trey Jones. If Leonard Miller, if this preseason thing is real, that's kind of interesting, to say the least. So I like their bench. After that, it's a giant question mark for sure.

Under for me. What do you have? Under also. And again, surprise that I'm going under on the bottom feeders in the East because, you know, again, the tanking rules are supposed to go the other way. But they also have high sell trade potential with like a Norm Powell and they're flexing kind of deal. I just think young and exciting is also often like young and bad.

Yeah. Defensively, I think they're going to be pretty bad. Shooting-wise, they're going to be iffy. So I think we're all excited to watch them. but that doesn't mean they're going to win 30 games. They're going to have four games this year where we're like, San Antonio lost in Chicago? They'll have four of those.

And then their fans will love the two guys. And Splitter, I thought Splitter did a nice job with Portland last year. So it's just the East is too good. It makes more sense for them to do exactly what Zach just observed, which is Powell and Claxton, those are valuable players for some of these teams that are missing stuff, like the Sixers for instance.

I'm not a sold on Claxton. Well, I'm just saying there are teams that are going to need a backup, you know, they're going to need good bodies at some point. And Powell, I just, I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger market for him, but he makes sense on a different team. They finished the last season, 25th in offensive rating and 22nd in defensive rating. Those numbers aren't going to really improve. They're not going to be, especially on the defensive side.

But super fun to watch. It's an under for me. I like Norm Powell, so I said that, pointing out that I like Norm Powell and I enjoyed to have him on the Quippers. I do think he's a two-name guy, where if you ask teams he's been on, like, what did you think of Norm's Norm? I was like, well, you know, Norm's Norm. Norm.

I think he's a two-nameer. I couldn't remember in your lexicon what a two-name guy was. I didn't know if you that, Norm's Norm. He's just, I didn't know if that meant you had to say his full name when referencing him or now I know what it is. Now I'm going to start thinking of two name guys in my life. How is Zach's writing thing going again? Well, you know, Zach's Zach?

He seems happy. You compared me to Porzingis yesterday in terms of my availability. My finger is availability. That was a joke. That was a joke on text. Oh, boy. Put your seatbelt on again. We've got the Milwaukee box at 25 and a half.

No, I'm going to cruise. I'm going to cruise, I'm going to park, take the seatbelt off and lay back in the, take a little nap in the seat. They are 20 to 1 to make the playoffs. They went 32 and 50 last year. None of their other odds matter. They don't have their first round pick. It's going to either New Orleans or Atlanta. Taylor Jenkins is their new coach.

They lost Bobby Portis and the entire Annanacupo family. They added Tyler Hero, Brandon Burris, Jaime Hockes, Calaisal Ware. Karas Levert for some reason. They willingly acquired Carouselbert. I still don't understand that. And Nate A meant, congrats on all those.

My big question, Zach, was not trading Janus in the summer of 2025 the single biggest mistake anyone has made this decade with the exception of the Luca trade? I'd have to go back and think, like, what would the offers have been,

then? Who else would have been? I mean, obviously, tons of people would have been engaged. Maybe, maybe even earlier than that. I mean, obviously, they waited too long and it became this just endless soap opera where we all knew how it was going to end and then it ended. And they got in. Well, don't forget about the other part.

Instead of trading him, what did they do? They stretched Dame. Oh, well, that. And added the Miles Turner contract. So it was like a, it was a double murder house. A triple. That was a triple homicide. It was a triple homicide.

We got to get Brisco Hargitay here. She's like, I met Jimmy Haslum's house. There's three bodies. Dame is the third highest paid buck this year. There you go. Dead body. So he could have been an expiring for them this year. And maybe some flexibility.

He's a body in the vacants. Do things. The only other big mistakes I had in the vicinity, and I don't think it's as bad as the two I mentioned, the Lakers-Westbrook trade, where they also had to get rid of, a Caruso and a couple of the other guys. Philadelphia not getting Haliburton for Simmons.

I'll never forgive them for that. Phoenix is KD trade, just throwing in literally everything. And then it seems to be true that Golden State could have had Caruso for Cominga in like 23. And I still can't believe they didn't do that. I remember a lot of Caruso buzz. Next question's for House. Okay. Is this the bleakest situation in the league?

You have no pick this year. You have a swap next year with Portland. In 2009, you don't have a first-round pick. Everyone on your team is a trade machine candidate, except Burris. And maybe amen. Milwaukee is all about the Brewers and the Packers right now, especially the Brewers. The Trent Turner-Lillard decisions, a full-cap catastrophe. The fact that they have to go put on a case and defend the Gary Trent, that's kind of the just reward.

That is a type of justice for the mismanagement of this franchise over the last half decade. And on top of all of this, if Janus is really good at Miami, there's going to be that too. Well, he is going to be good at Miami. He plays? Yeah, I think he's going to play. So is there a bleaker situation? No. Would you rather be a fan of every other team in the league than the Milwaukee Bucks?

The Clippers are the only rival for this. I was going to say, I can think of one that's perhaps in contention for sheer like I have to go to parties. You're like, yeah, you know, I don't know. My dad's a Clippers fan, so I became one. I know it's a lot of embarrassing. You won the title in 21. Yeah, Clippers are worse.

All right, so there may be number two. Kings? I think Kings, there's so much comedy and tragedy that it just keeps you on your toes. I feel like the Kings are closer to a turnaround. Like we're at the very, very beginning with this Bucks team. We're so far away from understanding. King's Reddit. I don't go to a lot of Reddit.

Kings Reddit, for comedy's sake, when something bad happens, is one of the funniest places on the internet. All of them are stand-up comedians at this point. It's like, what Al-Nada said in crimes of misdemeanors? Tragedy is comedy plus time. That's the entire King's Reddit. What are the Kings turning around toward? I don't know.

I don't have a good answer for that. At least you get to watch Aikoff run Pick and Roll with some bonus. That's fun. That's it. With the bucks, like at least you get Burris and at least maybe here. I love Burris. We all do. I just keep to believe what a, what a, what a, I can't say what I was going to say.

There's guys, there's guys. I can't sell you on here's a little Usabon Jang, most improved player stock. I can't sell you on Jaime Hockis Jr. who I would have voted six man of the year last year. Kolel Ware, I'm pretty, I'm pretty high on Kelle Ware. Those are all bodies. That is a, that is a return to sender. Return to sender.

Yeah. Ryan Rollins is legit good. He's good. You're returning, Cole, where to send her? I'm not a fan. He's a,

he is the great disappearing act. I saw him in person. I might even been with House. We definitely went to a heat Celtics game. Went to a heat game where I forgot he played. And then he came in with five minutes left. And he was like, and he played like 20 minutes.

We didn't even notice him. Zach, we ranked the trade machine guys for me in this team. I'll give you Turner, Hero, Hockes, and where? Rank them one to four. In terms of most value? No, for how likely they are to be traded by February. Turner, Hero, Hawkes, where one, or I'll go four, where three Turner, no, three

Hawkes, two, Turner, one, Hero. It's most likely to be traded. And Hero, this is, see, I might have to change my Pistons pick. that's the piston. Oh, okay. No, you can't. No, I'm not. I'm going to keep it.

I'm going to keep it. I'm going to honor it. But Hero is the Pistons move. It's a great move. That's a classic ad that would be perfect for them. Now I don't have to worry about K. Just having to run every single fucking play for two hours. You really have to have a sit down with Hero, though.

Like, please. Just show a tiny bit of discipline. Four minutes left in the game, you do not have to take two dribbles and shoot. Please. There's not a lot of guys who've averaged 20 a game for like five straight years. Tyler Hero's good. Yeah, he's good. And I just, the reason I would rank him number one is obviously the expiring, but also like

the buck's just being in this position of it doesn't really make any sense for us to splurge on the kind of extension that you, Tyler Hero, want. Right. And they're a four to ten team. Well, I'm an under, guys. What do you got? Under. Definitely under.

Now, I will say, can we pause for a second? Are you at all concerned that so far we are under on all the bad East teams? Because that made me pause as I did this. And I was able to justify a team by team and by going under on some of the ones at the top. But this will be interesting to see if these teams are really this bad. So I sketched out all the wins to make sure all my wins added up both ways. This is a cousin Soutrick because he's a psychopath. And I, Chicago at 26 wins, Brooklyn at 21 and Milwaukee at 21.

Okay. So that is basically a minus 55 for those three teams. So now you have to just make a... Allocate the wins. The plus 55 going the other way and you can figure out how to add it up. But there's some... The South is where there's some... In the old documentary parlance, you have to kill some babies.

The documentaries, you make a three-hour documentary and you have to cut it down in two. There's just scenes you've got to cut. And I feel that way about a couple of those south. teams. And I'm just like, oh, man, I hate doing this, but I got to. All right. So we're all under on all of those.

We're going to come back with, I think, the hardest to figure out division in the entire NBA, the whatever the hell, the south is it southeast? It is the southeast. Yes, it's the southeast division. And then we also get houses, Washington Wizard's scouting report, a tradition of the overrunners. That is next. All right.

Last division. We made it. the Orlando Magic at 43 and a half an insulting over under for them they were 45 and 37 last year and they got a new coach Sean Sweeney they're plus 250 for the division

41 for the title minus 165 for the playoffs the big question Zach Lowe yeah when will we officially figure out if Palo and Franz make sense together and is it this season Oh, it's by February, we're going to know.

Unless one of them, as seems to happen every year, game 10 of the season, there's some sort of fluke injury in there. We now have 30 more games of no data. But yeah, I think this is the year the rubber meets the road. You're seeing it with Anthony Black not having an extension yet. The team is just too expensive, has too many pieces making too much money, is going to have to make some painful decisions if this doesn't all click into place. And the over under is really very firmly suggesting it is not. going to click all into place. And yet they do have a smarter coach,

defensive specialist, but I think really, really respected. And I feel like that's going to be worth a couple wins house. I agree. Neither of us were mostly guys. So my big questions are, what if this isn't right with the new coach

and then is Franz going to make it through a season would be my two big things. I don't mind their bench. I thought Bain was actually pretty good last year. Do you feel like they regret the Bain trade, Zach? If you could do the go back in time two years. Yes.

I think you have to based on not, he's played fine. He's been Desmond Bain. It just kind of over, underestimated in the second apron and how dangerous a trade like that was for them, I think would be the regret, right? Yeah, you only have so many of those kind of bullets to throw. I'm a little more worried about their bench than you are. I mean, I like Anthony Black a lot. After that, the Silva's all right, Batazza is all right. Jace Richardson's been showing himself in the

preseason. So it's all right. It's fine. Yeah, it's fine. It's a C plus bench. House, where are you looking? Over. Okay. Yeah. I think that this team, especially Bain, I watched Bain's, Bain take nights off last year. I mean, there was, and it was some combination of something going on with that coaching staff and something going on with Palo and something going on with Bain. Like they were not all on the same page.

And it happened like quickly. It happened early in the season. And it is always with this Orlando team. Can those guys can Suggs, can they all be healthy for 50 games? Can they all of those guys be healthy so we can see for sure what this looks like? The playoff run was,

kind of, you know, okay, good. They give a shit. That's great to see. It's great to see Palo actually out there. You know, they gave everything they had to Detroit. And I do adhere to what you advanced earlier, which is they would have beat Detroit if Franz hadn't gone out. I mean, Franz was, is a secret sauce.

They paid him to be a secret sauce. I just think that the entire framework of how they approach basketball is going to be changed. I'm over indexing on Sean Sweeney, left hand up. I'm saying it right now. I think it's going to be a revelation, and I think they're going to be really good. There's no reason for them to drop out of the top 10 defensively. And they are not, they haven't been,

and I don't know how long, a top half of the league offense. With the talent they have, that doesn't make any sense. So I think Sweeney and who he brings along with him, what they install, it's going to be effective. I like this Orlando team. It's an over for me. 15-1 on Fandole for Coach of the Year, Sean Sweeney. I'd like to echo House's thoughts.

This seemed like an unhappy disjointed team last year that wasn't well-coached and kind of survived based on how much talent they had. The sub-season was weird. I don't know what happened. It was three-point shooting. I thought his playoff performance and just the heat checks over and over again when he couldn't make a shot was just bizarre. But also a sign that maybe you don't have a great coaching staff

and a good whatever in place. And I'm bullish on the talent. I really do like their starting five. I'm actually going over. I think they're in the mid-40s somewhere, and I don't think, even though the conference is tougher, I think they had the year from hell last year. So I'm a little more bullish on them, I think,

than the majority or the minority. I mean, we barely saw the starting five because of all the injuries on paper. I agree with you, like, it's an easy over. There's just too much talent here, even in the beefed-up East for this to be basically a 500 team. Given what they've done when they've been healthy-ish, they tend to win more games than this.

And so I'm going over. I'm not emphatic about it, but I'm going over. I will say this would be a team that if it's not going well, you could see an in-season pivot in some crazy direction that messes all this up. But I think there's just too much talent, new coach, over. I didn't. Somehow this isn't in my notes.

They have their pick this year or they don't? I will check now, but they're pretty picked and swapped out. I don't think they have it. Hold on. I'm looking to. They do have their picked. Yeah, they do have it. Okay.

The one thing to observe. So they could go into four to ten range if it goes bad. You remember we were doing Orlando this time last year, the three of us here in Los Angeles, California. We love them. And it was supposed to be like 50 wins for this team. Yeah. Well, absolutely nothing's changed except for the head coach and it's 43 and a half now.

I lock. I think I had them as an overlock last year, which didn't go great. It wasn't really your fault. They kept getting hurt. I'm an over two. I can't lock it because I'm not positive. Franz and Palo are both going to be on the team in February.

We'll see what happens. But I do like the coaching higher and I think this team should be good. Miami, I accidentally skipped them. They're overrunner is now 44.5. Division plus 155. Conference 11 to 1, title 30 to 1, playoffs minus 250,

playing plus 160. One seat 11 to 1 if you want to get excited about that. Last year, there were 43 and 39. They added Janus and the rest of the Antacupo family and Teddacupo family. They added Bobby Portis. They added Tim Hardaway, Jr. They added the artist formerly known as Clay Thompson,

who might be painting again. We'll see. He's got a boat. The place to park his boat. They lost Hero Powell, Hawkes, and Ware, who were like four of their best six guys. You just said, where returned to sender? Now he's one of their six best guys. On paper was one of their six best guys. The big question, if I could find it. Can he get one great year at Iiana, Zach Lo? Just one. Just give us one great year. If you can't, you're really up a creek because you made the trade suggesting you should get three or four really good years to great years out, to be honest. Yeah, of course you can.

I mean, great year. Like, he's an MVP candidate the entire year. He's 3011. He plays 68 to 70 games. Look, I don't think anyone is an MVP candidate. I think Luca is the only one that can still crack the top three. Other than that, we're talking about, like, are you in the conversation, which is code for like, could you get fourth or fifth? I think that's where Yanis could get. I don't see him leaping over Shea Yoko. So they won like 52 games and he was 13 and 11 and played 72 games and got, you know, rejuvenated the franchise, basically. You don't even think he's in that combo? Because I think he would be. I think he could get in the conversation. But I, those three guys are so good that you can make up whatever stat you want to make up for them. And they're going to

rival, whatever line you just gave out for Janus and their team might win more games, which will win more games in most cases. I got to ask, if Janus crashed the 27 finals, what would that do for his legacy? Oh, it's been a while since the L word came up. I only allowed one legacy segment in each part. How would his legacy shift, Zach? It would be a legacy changer for him. And we've seen in the finals, if you get there, you don't know what's going to happen.

It's not so predictable. So I mean, look, he hasn't had a real playoff run since the title win. And that hasn't been, that's been injuries. That's been injuries to him. It's been injuries to Chris Middleton. It's been other stuff. So, yeah, I mean, he is in need of a late career resurgence in the postseason. And I think, you know, there was no perfect spot for him in that regard, given how much you have to give up to get him.

but I'm an over on the heat. I am going to lock the over on the heat. I think this line is too low. If Yannis plays 65 to 70 games, I just think they're just better than this. If he doesn't, obviously, I will go bust on this, but I'm going over lock. I have Yonis 20th in the pyramid right now.

Wow. Kind of makes sense. It's right behind Dirknewitki. He needs to get to another finals. he's right behind Bob Pettit as well, who just passed away, sadly. I forgot to do a Bob Pettit thing on my podcast. House, where are you on the Miami Heat? It's an over.

I mean, this is out of respect for Spolstra, out of respect for the franchise, the starting five, I absolutely trust. It's going to be 43 wins out of the poo-poo platter that was the roster that we just went through last year for this. That's just Spoh. That's just this Miami team showing up with institutional smarts and continuity and planning.

For sure, they had, they reap the benefit of beating up on the bottom dwellers in the east. But I think, Janus, you want this refreshed, ready to go dominate version of Janus with this group of players, I think are very complimentary. It was an easy over for me. Here it comes. Here it comes. you want to do it. I did all my Yanis content over and over again during the interminably long

Janus trade saga, including some of the season 14 or later stuff with big guys and how Moses was the only guy ever to average 2010 and 50 plus games. How only LeBron and Mailman averaged 2010 in 7 plus playoff games. Age 32 guys.

We haven't had a 24 and 10 from an age 32 guy in 28 years. Playoffs 2010 for 12 plus games. Mailman, Hakeem, Hayes, Kareem, and LeBron, that's it. And I was under for most of the summer. But I've been really impressed by everything I'm reading and seeing. Defensively, they should be a top five team. Offensively, they have to replace the threes that they lost with Hero and Powell.

But Detroit made 11-3s a game last year and was 160 games. I'm not that worried about that. I do like the Portis part. I didn't love the clay signing, but I get why they did it. I like Fontekeo, as you know. Wiggins should be able to handle the swings. Bam Yannis is going to be clumsy,

but I think the defense will over correct for that. But I like everything I'm reading with the chemistry and stuff. And I do feel like this is going to be, the more I stare at it and look at it from afar and kind of dread the heat being good again, It just feels like they're going to get one really good Janus year here. And I don't know if it's going to be more than one,

but they're going to get a rejuvenated guy who's ready to reclaim something. And along with the coaching staff and everything else, I just, I don't see how this team's not in the high 40s, unless Janus gets hurt again. So I'm not locking it down. But the safe bet if we're doing this, which is how we should be approaching every team, is that this team should win 48 to 52 games.

So I'm over. You didn't enjoy that, did you? I didn't. He said all summer he was down on him, down on him, down on him. We didn't even mention Pellie Larson. Does he think that that guy? I thought that contract was aggressive, not as aggressive as the Yovic contract,

which was just inexplicable as it happened. But at least Polly Larson watching him last year, he was pretty good. But listen. No locks. We're all over. No, I'm the only lock. I can't do it with the hell stuff with Janus.

I'm only locking it because we need a requisite amount of locks per person. I'm a little short on locks. So I need to load up my Eastern Conference locks. I might by the end of the pod, I might change my mind on whether that's a lock or not for me. But, you know, it goes back to what you said earlier when we're talking about with Dallas, with flag and clay together. And it's like, you know what's really nice having two of the best 30 guys in the week? Every night, night after night.

I have no idea if they're going to fit together. I think the offense is going to be really clumsy, but also if a coach is going to figure it out, they have one of the four or five guys who could unlock it. But I think he's going to have a real energy to him, and I like everything I've heard from him. So three overs. This was in the running for hardest one,

the Atlanta Hawks, 43 and a half. Playing plus 135, playoffs minus 170, 40 to win the title there, 46 and 36 last year, 21 and 9 last 30. Big question. House, they feel like they're one move away. What's the move?

Does it need to be this season? Can they wait? Well, I loved the Dort and the Wiggins moves. So those were the moves, I think. I mean, this team, you have to make a decision about the last 30 games of last year. How real was that? Do you believe that that's really what this team

is capable of, is that good reflection of the ceiling for this Hawks team. They're still young. They still can put, you know, defensively is there another level to them? They finished inside the top 10 in defensive rating. That

includes a big chunk of the season that Trey Young was on the team and then not playing. And it was awkward. Yes. And they were even inside the top half of the league in offensive rating. So, where is there a ceiling coming from exactly?

Yeah, they won 46 in a league where 30% of the league tanked the last 11 weeks of the season. 43 and a half is just too low. I don't want to get too aggressive with it, but I really like what they did in the offseason. And they still have a ton of assets. They have boost to make. And I think that there's another level of Jalen Johnson. Like we're going to start having some all-NBA conversations, you know, more, more, not start. but additional all-N-B-A conversations around Jalen Johnson.

So I'm over with this Hawks team. They lost Ries-Reshay and Buddy Heald. They added Lou Dort, Kingston, Fleming's, and Aaron Wiggins. It's very good additions. So on roster, better. I love their GM, too. He's good. The Hawks are smart.

I like everything they've done. I even thought Fleming's was the right pick, even though I don't love taking a guard that high, but they had to take a swing at one of those guys. I like their bench. They're basically going to have Doorshers. Fort Wiggins, Fleming's, Jack Landell, Wilson, Eishore, Finney Smith. Like, they have some depth.

I just wonder if this is the team. Like, is this a team that could be in the cat sweepstakes if that ever happens? Is this a Trey Murphy team? Could this be a team that talked itself into Jamal Murray and said, you know, oh, we'll flip you McCollum and Daniels and we'll take Jamal's back. like those kind of trades. Zach, are you under or are you under or over? I am under.

I'm under as well, but I'm like, I couldn't, I'm like a, I'm a hair under. Under 43 and a half. Yeah, I'm under. I have them at 42 or 43 somewhere in there. I got to have some unders in the East. Me too. And this, I think this is a fair line given that they beat a bunch of bad teams toward the end of last season.

yes, I know that they won twice against the Knicks and nobody else did. I just feel like the whole conference is going to be so much better. And Dorts introduction, they have a lot of like equations to solve about their team and their style of play and what lineups don't have enough shooting and what lineups don't have enough defense and do they have enough rim protection and all that. I just feel like it's going to take them a little while to find the right mix. I trust their bench a little bit less than you do, Bill. it's young.

It's a little unproven. We like Dorton Wiggins, though. Wiggins is good. You know, Ejifor, Newell, Moeigh's injured, Kisperd always seems to fall in and out of the rotations, Landdills, whatever. Finney Smith has been moved all around the league after a bad season in Houston.

I am going a slight under on the hooks. I thought I was going over the entire off-season and even until last week. And something doesn't feel. right with this team. And I agreed with all the moves they make, and I liked all the assets they collected. So it's not a criticism of the front office.

I just, I don't understand how they're going to kind of figure out this stew of, of players and who's going to play, not play. Putting Dort on there, like, Dort's kind of have to play in crunch time. So now who am I sitting? Am I sitting Dice of Daniels,

who I gave $100 million to? Am I sitting, Alexander Walker, I don't want to do that. I'm not sitting Jaywin Johnson. So it's probably Daniels. And now does he go sideways? And then if I'm not sitting Daniels and I'm starting Daniels over Dort,

do I lose Dort? Dort's like, I'm a fucking champion. 27 years old. I'm playing for a new contract. So you have that. You have Fleming's who wants to play. I don't know. There's some minute stuff

that worry me with this team. All right. So two unders and an over for house. Wow, two left. Charlotte Hornets. there's been some action on the under. I think it was 39 and a half house. Got a 37 and a half, Charlotte.

Yep, yeah, for sure. Well, the third of their team is injured right now. That's why. And that's why. They were 29 or 11 in their last 40 games last year, plus 170 for the playoffs, plus 150 for the playing. They also have three first next year.

Their own pick, Miami, top 14 protected, Dallas top two protected. and they could easily, if they don't like the way the season is going, ease into that 4 to 10 range. The big question, is it a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets, Sack? That if I ran an NBA team, I would have played it exactly like the Hornets did the last two years,

every single move. So this is about you. I'm judging you. Is that a bad sign or a good sign for the Hornets and their fans that I completely agree with every single thing they did? So you're all in on Christian Anderson and Hannah Steinbach? I did love the Christian Anderson one, but they,

the, a Corey, I would have liked more for them. I would have taken Phylan. So I guess I didn't completely agree because I would take in Fialin. I think it's, I think it's a good sign.

Objectively, even as someone who likes Lamello Ball, they clearly decided last year was semi not that real. And what we're being offered for him for Miles Bridges is just too much. to turn down. We'll take a slight step back to take a bigger step forward down the line, see what Brandon Miller can do, see what Conniple can do. In the meantime, we have like 13 decent

rotation players. That's going to be helpful in the regular season. So no, I don't think it's a bad sign. The over-under says this is a team that's six wins worse than last year. If any of the top 10 fall, so that would make them Team 11 in the east. If any of those top 10 teams fall out for some reason. They're ready to spring in. I would have, if they had been healthy going into this season, I would have gone over and I would have talked myself into bumping Orlando or one of these other ones. But they're not going to be, it doesn't sound like they're going to have their team for like probably until early November, which puts us three weeks in. You could be like two and eight at that point.

Now I'm, now I'm already trying to climb back and I just have hard games every day. I just, I worry about it. But so they had lost Lamello, Bridges, Josh Green, trade man. They added Nas, Grayson Allen, who I thought was a really sneaky one. O'Neill. I think Steinbeck's going to play right away for them because he rebounds. Christian Anderson, we'll see. And then they got Schrooter

because of the rule that he has to be on every team in the league. And Kobe White, not in the offseason, but as the sort of that's the replacement for La Mello Ball, basically. And I think this could be a spoiler team in the second half, but I think that

now they're one, like let's say Con go down for a month or Miller on top of this first three weeks, they have no room for error with injury at all. And I think it's okay if they don't make the playoffs this year. They didn't make the playoffs last year. They did make the play in. That was the high water mark for lamello ball. And if they're in the four to ten with a chance at one more awesome draft pick on top of all the other draft picks they have, that's where you want to be. Yeah. And the nucleus is young. It's young enough. Yeah. I mean, it's the observations act just made, which is, you know, a slight step back this season because you might really have something

next season. And I think that's an easy enough thing to sell to the fan base. You don't want to rush anybody back. We're too early in this experiment. The only thing that gives me hesitation, any pause whatsoever, is it disrespectful to Charles Lee? Is it disrespectful to Charles Lee to say that this is not, this team won't win 38 games? Because Brandon, if Brandon Miller's healthy, he's another guy, another leap guy that has a whole other sort of chapter to me. I'm taking the under

on the notion that it does make more sense for them. The asset building has been very impressive. No reason to sort of stop that, bite down hard on anybody right now unless something crazy revealed itself in terms of the trade market

during the season. 37 doesn't feel that disrespectful, so I'm taking the under. the queasiness had taken the under is Charles Lee. It's like, hey, Kobe White was pretty goddamn good for the last couple of years. And now we're giving him spacing with Nas Rida's like a true spacing for. That's a powerful potential offense. Maybe they're going to miss Lamello's play, making a pull-up three-point shooting.

Defensively, we'll see if they can sustain what they did last year. And like, was the Musa Diabate thing 100% real? or now people know like, all right, this guy's a menace on the glass. Like, we really have to be ready for this guy. And is that center position between him and Kalkbrenner and whatever they do beyond that? Is that quite enough? Steinbach. I am going under on Charlotte in a stronger East this year.

Well, you knew I would do everything I possibly could to talk myself into the over, despite the injuries start the year. I kept coming back to this. And it was a stat I gave in my podcast last week. about how they made 16.2 3s a game last year, which led the league. Their top six guys that they have this year, if you include Grayson Allen, their top six guys would all average 16.2. And the thing I keep coming back to is if they're at 18 made threes a game, just for the entire season, how is that team going to go 37 and 45?

Well, someone's got to create those threes, right? I mean, that was a lot of Lamello. passing last year that they don't quite have. True. They also have to have the making. The making is important. They shut the lights out last season. They were incredible. On the other hand,

Nas changes the team's entire spacing configuration and is a maker for sure. So, yeah, I see them out. I'm going just a whiff over. You're allowed. 38 and 44, 39 and 43. I think they're the 11th team in the East. And what's interesting is down the stretch,

if, you know, it's like, oh, shit, we're probably not even going to make the plan. We're five games behind the 10 seat or whatever. They're still going to be incentivized to try to win games because they're going to be in that 4 to 10 range anyway. Who cares? So, slight over.

And then I wonder if there's a little bit of an overreaction to all the injuries where it's like, oh, you can't take that and they're injured. The price is better now. It's at a discount. This was 39 and a half all summer. Right.

And now I'm getting, and I might have gone under at the 39 and a half, but I'm going to go over now. So plus we need to disagree. Okay, here we go. It's like a half under in spirit. Right.

Yeah. It's just the injury stuff. If they have to wait 15 games or 20 games and they come out of the shoot, you know, 5 and 13 because of that. Buckle up again because we have arrived at the Washington Wizards. Joe has his favorite team. They're over under is 34 and a half. 14 and 1 for the division plus 3.3.

10 for the playoffs plus 220 for the play in. Last year, they were 3 and 27 in their last 30. It was a complete disgrace to basketball. 17 and 65 for the year. And the big question house, how many games will Trey Young and Anthony Davis play together? I have no goddamn idea. What's your bet your life number?

Zach hates some people bet their life. I don't want to bet my life. Bet your life right now. Trey Young and Anthony Davis. Bet your life. Anthony Davis sat games out because of a bank. up finger. Like, a guy who sits out because of finger injury, I don't want to bet my life on that. We should mention when Anthony Davis got voted into the NBA top 75 all time.

This is true. This is true. House was so upset. He sent me a picture of all these candy bars that were all eaten. It was the rappers of like Kit Cap bars or Thousand-Allows. It was a giant collection of the Halloween. Yeah, it was. It was mainly $100,000. Yeah, 100 grand bars. And he was like, I'm so upset about this Anthony Davis. thing. I ate all five of these candy bars. And it was just the rappers. He did do it. And now he's on your team. I was grief eating.

I was grief eating candy bars. It did upset me. Playing for a contract, kind of, Anthony Davis. Not just kind of. He really is. He's really playing for a contract. Honestly, he's playing for the player option. He's going to opt into next year, isn't he? I expect him to, but it depends on, you know, somebody steps up.

Who's giving Anthony Davis $50 million a year next year? That would be insane. I don't think it would be insane. I've nothing to add. Let's see. He's 33 years old. Let's see what happens. He's played 277 games since the 2020 finals.

Doesn't seem like a lot. 45 a year. It's not optimal. He's at 30K combined minutes, which is almost 20K less than KD. Trey Young's career stats are kind of fascinating to go through his basketball reference. It's like just averaging 25 and 10 for an entire career. There aren't a lot of guys who've done that. Yeah, it's impressive.

So you added DeBanza. You added another one of your favorites, The Adra, Aet. At $8 million or $9 million, that's a valuable asset. Go around the league and look up backup centers across the league. You added Trey Man as well. You had Carrington admit that the team didn't try last year. That was great. I told the truth.

I really enjoyed that. He told the truth. So you have Davis and Sarr together, the Twin Towers, DeVanza, George, who I like, Trey Young. Kula Bali, who is in the running for a worst offensive player who actually takes shots in the week. He's dying for an extension, dying for one. Trey Johnson? Did we like him last year at all or no?

It's impossible to make any judgment about Trey Johnson last year. You loved Riley. Yeah, I was just saying. We're going to get to Will Riley. Yes. You have the other champagne? And they're pretty good. He's getting run?

Yes. You have the artist formerly known as Chris Middleton? another veteran presence in the locker room. He chose Washington. He didn't have to come back to Washington and he chose it. What is the buzz on the city right now? Do you want to give us a little monologue? It's an amazing moment in Washington.

First of all, the hockey season started already. I guess they play 117 games in hockey now and it started in September. Up to 84. I have no idea why the hell. But they're home hockey games. And so the capitals have over the last 20 plus years been the, dominant team of interest. They sell out every single game.

They've been the most consistent good team. And so you take that version of it. The stadium is going through a renovation. They're two-thirds of the way through. They decided to keep both the Wizards and the caps in the city. Thank you to the Leonas family. They threaten to go off to Virginia. And the city and the monumental ownership group seeing eye to eye.

It's a kumbaya moment, and it's great to go downtown and have the lively atmosphere. The buzz for this Washington Wizards team is through the roof. Do you understand that everybody anticipated that A.J. DeBonson was going to be the number one overall pick, and they still got 5,000 people to go to a theater downtown for the announcement, for a draft party, just spontaneous. I wish we were playing the Titanic music right now. What? And celebrate because this is what happens when your team is fucking terrible for 10 years.

It's a basketball city, Washington, D.C., with a great history, a great lineage, tons of talent through the high school and collegiate ranks. And to have competitive basketball, it's going to be a revelation. We want to see a team that comes out and tries, and they have a bunch of kids whose heads all seem to be in. in the same place. This team was together for the, the entire team came out to Las Vegas. They played together, practiced together in Las Vegas. And then the whole team,

Trey Young and Anthony Davis, they didn't have to do this, went to Los Angeles. And the whole team practiced together in Los Angeles. It's the same page, one vision, one mission, 38 win team. I have, I have goosebumps here.

I mean, I'm, how is the most emotional moments of the history of the bottom? Who doesn't live? like to see their team try to win basketball games. I was a hard under, but now I'm wavering. Now I think they might be a 55 win team. No, no. We were, we have to temper our expectations.

But it's just so refreshing. And people in Washington really do deserve winning basketball. The total at 30, we've seen some 33 and a halfs. What we're doing from the Fandwell Sportsbook is 34.5. Obviously, I'm over. He talked himself to the train on extension about five. minutes. They were going to pay him.

They paid him a grotesque amount. They overpaid him in term and in dollars. But they needed a point guard for this thing this year to work. So it was a grotesque overpay for a point guard. They believe Travis Schlenk is in Washington. He went from Atlanta where he had. He did great. He didn't do it.

He did fine. Killed it. Did fine. Did fine. Did fine. He was in the office every day. They made it to the... Did not have any scandals.

Ask a New York fan how they feel about Trey Young. That's because of that Atlanta team that was built that way. Fuck Trey Young. Where'd that come from? They succeeded. They were not... I love this. They did succeed.

I realized this was so hard-core. That was five years ago. We all wearing fucking masks. Yeah. You're trying to make fun of Travis Slink. They built a team where New York... was motivated to say, fuck Tray Young. Okay, fine.

Great. You know, to be fair, the reason I made fun in Travis Schenk was because he was terrible and got fired. Jesus. To be fair. Travis is good. I will say that.

You like Travis? I think he's good. I think he's smart. I think some of the decisions that were made there that undid that team were not entirely his. Also, new ownership group in Atlanta. Not the same ownership. I'll revise my statement.

a lot of the moves made under the tutelage of Travis Schling were abominable. Supervision. Perview. Zach, are you under or over? I'm still recovering from... You didn't realize that was giving me this emotional. I thought he was going to start talking about the Baltimore Bullets and Gus Johnson and West Sunself and Jack Marin. You have to go that far back to find a winning basketball tradition.

Boya paranoia. I mean, I didn't know where, what else was going to come up. RIP Mike Sweeney. Stevie Blake and Maryland Some of the greats Steve Francis of Maryland I do look Trey Young is is

Is Trey on the most underrated passer in the history of the league Like people don't think of him As a passing genius Because he holds the ball And he monopolizes it And he's passing mostly to get assists Other players play like that too

For a little guy He's one of the best passers ever For a little guy All that said I simply could not look at this a whole picture, all of it, the history, the youth, the injuries and availability. It doesn't seem like Anthony Davis has been super psyched to be a Washington Wizard and not get a contract extension. I can't look at all of that in a very strong top-the-bottom Eastern

conference and say 35 wins. I'm going under. I'd see the talent. If they got 70 games out of Trey and AD or 60 combined games or 55, I could see. see and over for sure because they just had so much stability on both ends. Although I do think the Davis-Sar thing is going to need some ironing out on both ends of the floor. I just, I just can't trust these guys to win 35 games. I'm sorry. Very fair. Very fair. We did 13 going on 30 on the rewatchables a couple weeks ago. Julie and I were making jokes about Mark Ruffalo, who clearly is on autopilot for most of the movie and has a look on his face. Like, my agent told me this movie would be a good idea,

but I wish I wasn't here. Peaking in the thriller scene when they have to do a thriller dance, and you could just see him be like, I thought I was going to win an Oscar by now. Doing thriller and a Jennifer Gardner rom-com. That's how Anthony Davis has felt for about six months. No. I don't agree with that.

They're like, Anthony, do the thriller dance. He's like looking over at Rich Paul to see if he can connect. I got it. I got it. All right. I don't think this will be their team. in February, despite your objections to this. Because if it was, they would have picked up the Anthony Davis extension and given them an extra year, and they did not.

So that makes me think they're trying to keep optionality each way. And as we've discussed now 20 times in the pod, the conference is too good. And there's going to have to be a couple teams that aren't good. I only have four teams under 38 wins in the East. And that includes Charlotte that I had at 38. So I have Washington, Chicago, Brooklyn, Milwaukee all under. And I have Washington somewhere between 32 and 34 wins. I'll give you 34 just to be fun.

It is worth mentioning that Trey Young has not been a successful regular season player the last few years. And he's somebody that teams relentlessly and delightedly attack on defense, like it's their job. If you're going glass half empty, I think it's fair to ask out loud. Atlanta had a pretty nice young core. And how come Trey Young couldn't figure it out? How come Quinn Snyder and Trey Young couldn't get on the same page with a nice young core?

Why wasn't he a facilitator there? He could have been perfect for. Yeah. He should have been, should have been perfect for. Why is that going to work in Washington? There's, there's, I mean, it's been so long since there was any glass at all. The glass got poured into the blue reflecting pool years and years ago. and I just can't, I can't get to, I can't get to 35.

I have some extra news for you. I'm listening. This is a lock for me under 30. That's hurtful. Under 34 and a half? Honestly, this is starting, I think this number is a miracle. I'm going to send you something. Why is this team going to win 35 games?

Anthony Davis plays 40 games a year. They have the number one overall. They have Trey Young who Atlanta's like, please take them. number one overall draft pick in the entire league. Yeah. I watched them at BYU last year. They lost them, would they lose them?

Round one or round two? I can't even remember. This is beginning to feel like one of those things where you almost bet, like, emotionally, you almost bet against the team you're cheering for so that you win either way. You win if they win in your heart. You win money. Not that I bet. But House didn't do that.

He did the opposite. But now, having taken the under, my heart wants. House to win this because this has been such, this is a borderline of roast of Joe House and the Wizards now and my heart is now set on, I'd like him to be happy. I'd like him to claim victory here. I don't think

he will though. I'm pretty confident. You're going to play 52 games against the East and be underdogs in like 42 of them. 44 of them. The most sober assessment of this, all hyperbole and joking aside, let's get

these rotations figured out. I mean, Because who's going to create shots from the second unit. There's a whole bunch of things to be revealed. You have a bunch of young guys who are like, I'd love to take a lot of shots tonight, please. Tray Johnson is one of them. Kishon George is one of them. Yeah. Saar, Hower, Sar, and I mean, Zach asked it.

But it's a lot of pressure on the coaching staff. It's a lot of pressure. And that was one of the reasons I have a lot for this. I thought the Wizards coach was pretty terrible. It's impossible to know whether or not. he's terrible. This is the first time that we're going to see him with a mandate to go try and win basketball games. Who knows how Brian... You've been my friend since 1988, so I'm not going to dig through my texts where you told

me that you maybe weren't a fan of the coaching the last couple years with this guy? Well, he has a name. His name is Brian Keith. It is Brian Keith. Is Brian Keith the coach at a year? Coach of what year? one year from now Oh, is he the wizard coach in one year? I don't want to say. Maybe that, maybe that if Joe House wins this,

he is, if you and I win Bill, he's not, maybe. Maybe the over-under is the answer to that question. I hope I'm wrong. I feel bad about locking it. I'm sorry. I just can't believe. This was one of the over-unders,

I couldn't believe. It's like 35 wins. This is 35 wins, basically projecting that every positive thing possible could happen. You could talk to me into like 36 wins. And that's Davis playing like 70 games.

Trey Young suddenly being like, you know, a leader offensively, which he just wasn't in Atlanta forever. The hard thing is it's 10 more wins than Brooklyn. It's 10 more wins than Brooklyn. This roster is 10 wins better than the Brooklyn roster. And I have real defensive questions too. I know. I get it.

Saar and Davis should be. pretty pretty a j de bansa that is where you're going to start seeing the steals and blocks of that guy in fact you know just get ready to start betting steals and blocks de bansa those that's my player prop recommendation for the season the reason i i vacillated on this before i set it on the lock and there are going to be that four to ten range and i think there's be a lot of distance between them the 11th playoff team or they you know 10 11 so they might actually care about the last couple weeks because why not? You know?

It's like we're in the range you need to be anyway. All right. The recap. Last chance to lock something down. Nix under 51.5. All three of us agreed on that. No sign of disrespect to the Nix because we think they are one of the

handful of teams that can win the finals. Celtics over. 51.5. House and I locked it down. Zach did not, but he has the over. Philadelphia. 49 and a half. Under, under, under for me and Zach, over for House.

Toronto, 46.5. Over, over for me and Zach, under for house. Brooklyn. 24 and a half. Three unders and yet no locks. Nobody wants to lock this? It's too low. Okay.

Cleveland Cavaliers, 48.5. Three over. Zach locked it. Detroit, 47 and a half. Confusing. I went slightly under. Zach went over with a lock. House went over.

Indiana, 44.5. Sure you don't want to lock this, Zach? No. Try lock. Triple lock? No, try lock. All right. House and I are locking that one down.

Three overs, though. Chicago, 29.5, three unders. Let me, I want to intervene. Yep. I want to lock in that Chicago under. Tasty. Yeah. I'm going to get on that.

I want to make sure I have seven locks. I need an odd number of locks. now you're making me jealous that I should have locked it. It's not too late. Yeah, why are they going to win 30 games? If I have Washington winning 35 or 36 games in Chicago can't win 30, how about that? Can't have it. I'm going to stay away.

Milwaukee, 25 and a half, three unders for us. Miami, 44 and a half. Zach and I have locked this down and House is not. Orlando, 43 and a half, three overs. Atlanta, 43 and a half. Under, under for me and Zach, over for House. That seems to be the most disagreement. I'm going to double down on the disagreement.

I want to have an under lock. I'm going to lock Atlanta under 43.5. Wow. Charlotte, over for me. 37.5. You guys went under. Washington. 34 and a half.

I locked it down as an under. Zach went under. house went over. And that's what we had. Quick question. What is the highest win total in the east, do you think? I'll go 54. Wow.

I had 54. I had the Celtics at 54. I think they're going to be the one seat. I agree that it's the Celtics and I thought they were just going to win 56 again. Racking and allocating wins and all the rest of it. And what do you think the lowest win total will be? in either conference. Do you think we'll get in the teens

with anybody with these new rules? I don't... I mean, I picked Sacramento over 20 and a half, so I have nobody in the teens. I think 22, 23, something like that would be the lowest one. I think somebody gets 20 in the east.

Somebody goes 20 and 62. I could see the Clippers ending up around 20. Yeah, Tylo leaves in like December. it's like, Tyloos had enough. He's resigned. There's no place he'd rather be.

He said that. He did say at the press conference. There's no place he'd rather be. I could be Hawaii at a beachside bar, sipping a margarita. No, no, no. I want to coach Brandon, brand inning rooms partially torn Achilles.

Neiderhouser. He loves Neiderhouser. Who doesn't? He loves coaching Brooke Lopez in year 38. Well, there was no place I'd rather be than with you guys doing over-unders for, I don't know, this was five hours. Zach Lowe, pleasure as always. Great to see you.

Joe House. Yeah, we did it. Amazing. Thanks to Chris this time, plus Cahow and Eduardo and Jack Wilson back at Spotify. Zach, when's your next podcast? Thursday, we have Stan Van Gundy, and then we're going to have a little mini-lakers preview with Dan Wakey. Oh, nice.

That's great. And then your fingers are working this week, too. They are. We got league pass rankings coming out in dribs and drabs. I think we're going to do five parts, six teams a day, spread out till tip off. I can't remember the exact schedule. Great. Congrats on getting the fingers going.

Don't forget, anybody watch. Any inspiration? You feeling any? A little bit. I thought I loved your first post. I thought it was inspiring talking about writing forces you to interrogate things a little bit harder. I think with that constantly,

I feel like I'm not interrogating things enough. Like the wizard's 34 and a half over under. I feel like if my fingers are really working, I would have interrogated that a lot more violently. House, pleasure. Thank you. We'll be together. Thanks, everybody.

I'll be back Thursday on this podcast as well. See, Zach. Opt and required bonus issued as non-drawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration of max wage or amount. See terms at sportsbook.fielder.com.