The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The Pacific and Central Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Booker, Curry, LeBron, and Giannis

Episode Date: October 17, 2023

In Part 2 of a three-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House to run through NBA win totals for the Pacific and Central divisions. (00:42) Suns (13:24) Lakers (22:20) Warriors (30:38) Kings (36:23) Clippers (41:54) Bucks (50:08) Cavaliers (56:21) Bulls (59:30) Pacers (1:03:08) Pistons Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ryen Russillo and Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. If you missed part one of the Big Over-Unders podcast with Priscilla and House, it is already up. This is part two. We're doing the Pacific in the Western Conference and the Central in the Eastern Conference. Here we go. Pearl Jam, one more time. Alright, we did the first two divisions in the West, and we saved the Mac Daddy one. An impossible over-under division for last with the Pacific,

where Phoenix has the highest over-under, 52 and a half. They're plus 130 to win the division. They're plus 550 for the title. They're plus 230 for the one seed. They were 45 and 37 last year before we're going to do under over or house. How many more KD years are we getting? Like the real bad-ass KD years. He's 35 years old, 986 regular season games, 166 playoff games. He's played 43,000 minutes. Got hurt in 2019. Missed all of 2020.

Missed 37 games in 21. 27 games in 22. Missed 35 last year. And now he's 35 years old. He was in the 2007 draft. Elite KD over under a year and a half. Under? What do you mean by years?

Because what we're really talking about is can he be healthy in the playoffs? That to me is the only question that matters. I don't care whether he plays 40 games in the regular season. You want him to be healthy and able to score in the playoffs, which obviously is going to impact my assessment of the Phoenix Suns. Well, it sounds like maybe you don't like the 52 and a half as much. What are your thoughts, Rosillo?

Yeah, it's all about Durant. I'm going to take the under. And I like him. You know, I feel like the weird thing is Phoenix has been kind of forgotten already. Maybe because we didn't know how Beal fit in. But then when you looked at the price for Beal, you're like, why wouldn't you just do it?

The eight and stuff. You know, I just think it was a frustrating fit. But when you look at the assets coming back for him, you're like. You mean dominating? Dominating. Because I think Nurkic sucks. Me too. You want real estate on my island?

Is that a unique island? It's not a small island. I'm taking shit from the Phoenix area. I'm just surprised that people. Our guy Eddie Jones is like mad at me. Do they watch him? He doesn't play. Also, he doesn't play.

Gets hurt every year. What's Phoenix going to be mad about? They haven't seen him play. His passing and screening is so much better. It's like, he doesn't play. His passing and screening is a bench. There was a time where I actually thought he brought something to the table.

And he's a pretty talented guy. But I mean, he doesn't play enough. And I think when he's played defensively, he's been more exposed as his career has gone on. Well, he's going to be exposed this year. Well, I mean, even if I understand them moving on from Aiton, which makes me question between the Aiton stuff and Kai Jones, like, is the Bahamas the basketball pipeline we thought it was?

We're going to have to reevaluate. So that's something we can table for later in the season. But I still think they're going to be really good. And if they're healthy, I think they're really, like this isn't a write them off thing. I just don't know how you bank on, I mean, even Booker gets dinged up a little bit now and then. And I love the guy.

And Beal's not afraid to miss a few games. Yeah, I feel about Beal's durability. 90 games in two years? Yeah. 90 out of 160? Yeah, there's durability questions I have with this team. I do like if they're just going to play Duran at the five in certain games where they need him

and play Gordon as a starter. I think defensively, I have real questions about this team. And if your answer is, well, they're just going to outscore anybody. The defense doesn't matter. That's fine. But I really don't trust KD playing more than like 60 games. We just haven't seen it.

If he did it, it would be the first time it happened, you know, since the late 2010s. And I really feel like they're going to need him to be a mid fifties win team. They're going to need his defense. They're going to need him to be a mid-50s win team. They're going to need his defense. They're going to need rebounding from him. They're going to need his point forward stuff. And he's going to have a really big burden. I think him and Booker, there's no point guard on this team. Bradley Beal's not a point guard.

You already saw that house. He's fine. He's fine. He can break the ball up. They're going to run the offense through Durant and Booker. But then on the other side, Durant, they're going to need Durant to get 10 rebounds a game. They're going to need Durant to be able to guard.

Who's guarding Jason Tatum on this team? I honestly don't understand. Who's guarding Luka on this team? Booker's guarding Luka. Booker guts everybody other than Luka. Who's chasing Steph Curry around screens on this team? I guess you use one of the bench guys, but I listen,

there's, it's your thing. You've been saying this forever. There's regular season teams. And then what, where are you in the playoffs? And to me, this is a classic.

I don't care about the regular season with this team. I don't think they care about it. They want to be where they are in the playoffs. And 53 is a lot of wins. Like you, that is a lot of wins. You need like eight, 10,

12 game winning streaks to get to 53 and they're competing against teams like even a team like the Celtics. Tatum is durable as shit. He doesn't miss games.

Ooh, a little teaser. A little teaser for the over. Those guys don't miss games. If you're going to say Porzingis is not durable, I'm with you. It's two completely different things.

I really like Phoenix. Like I'm in on it. I think there's a version of this with Vogel where it's not Monte Williams figuring out your rotation while you're losing in the second round of the Denver Nuggets. And you're like, hey, man, do you have any idea what your sub-pattern is here?

It's the second round. You mean Monte Williams, the highest-paid coach in the league? I can't believe it. Moving on. Plus 550 for the title? Intrigued at all? Yeah, I believe it. Moving on. Plus 550 for the title? Intrigued at all? Yeah. Like, I like it.

I like it. But I, there's also, this is, like, I've come to the conclusion, I think, the last two years, like, I'm probably as pro-Booker as anybody. Like, I just go, there's a motherfucker in him. Yeah. That's beyond some of the other guys that I hear that are supposedly ranked higher than him in the nba rank stuff that we see and a lot of the nba rank stuff is very similar and yeah the the one is like i'd rather have booker than tatum i'd rather have booker than shea gildress alexander and i think there have been some moments here in the playoffs when

he is like fuck this i'm going for it that i don't see in other guys that are considered better than him um and look i mean reasonable people can disagree about it. So because of that part and hoping that Durant like, Hey man, this might be your last real shot at this to get that ring that it would mean a lot. He can pretend it's not going to mean, but like a ring post golden state for him.

Yeah. Would mean a lot. That's why he wanted to get traded Phoenix. Yeah. But I'll, I'll be honest. Like I, even though the raw numbers are there and he and Booker went crazy

in two of those games, there's some stuff with the way Durant was playing where it was like, dude, you're just getting yourself into these impossible shots. And a few go in, but I hope this isn't what you plan

on doing here offensively the whole time. And I don't think Vogel will let that happen. Well, that was why I said last year at some point how I thought if you just flipped, if you gave them Beal

for that series against Denver, you just put, if you gave them Beal for that series against Denver, you just put him in the Landry Shammott spot for five, six games or however long the series was. I still think Denver beats them. I do. I don't think Beal would have swung it because they couldn't stop Denver. Beal wasn't changing that. So from a defensive standpoint, the team they have built, I still think Denver is going to be able to do whatever they want offensively against them. Maybe they won't see them

in the playoffs. Who knows? But I just think this will be who, like, Jokic against this team? It's going to be fucking an island.

Well, everybody wants to tell you like, Nurkic gets up for it. It's like five years ago. Okay. Yeah. And he also had a major

leg injury too that people gloss over. House, if I told you Booker was 22 to one to win the title, I'm sorry to win the MVP. If you did that bet with the over, that makes sense to me because if they go over this 52 and a half, that tells me Booker had a spectacular season that he became like one of the guys in the league, which I still think I'm with Russillo as a playoff guy. I love him, but he hasn't the guys in the league, which I still think I'm with Russillo as a playoff guy.

I love him, but he hasn't been that in the regular season. There's really no point. We spent. He flirted with it though. Didn't we have a top five vote for him? Yeah. Two years ago. Yeah, we did.

But he was never like, could Booker win the MVP? I don't. Well, there was one year where I think there was 12 different guys that were winning it. Each Sunday. It was just ridiculous. And he was at least guys that were winning it. Each Sunday it was somebody new. It was just ridiculous. And he was at least in that mix.

But go ahead, Cal. All we were saying is, you know, we just spent eight minutes talking about Phoenix and the entirety of the conversation is about their playoff fortunes and how they compete, you know, how they're going to line up against Denver. This is not a team that's built for regular season success. It doesn't make any sense. So it's an under. It's an easy under.

It might be one of my locks when we get to it. Is their great offense going to be better than everyone else's anything? Because you could say last year, why did Denver win the title? Well, the Jokic-Murray thing was the best thing anybody had, but they also got stops. Each playoff

game, they were able to summon some sort of stop. They were never out of games. Nobody ever blew them out. Even that one Minnesota game, they're down by 10-12 near the end. They sort of stop. They were never out of games. Nobody ever blew them out. Even that one Minnesota game, they're down by 10-12 near the end. They clawed back. They were just always hanging around because they were so efficient. So if that's the case for Phoenix, that their offense is going to be so good, especially with Beal,

that they're just going to always be hanging around these games and they could always rip off 10. I just don't think they're in the class of Denverver i don't see it um it's an under for me what is it for you rassela under okay um one last phoenix question really quick if you got ishbia put like eight tequila shots on him and some truth serum and you're like dude like you know, looking back,

maybe, maybe shot your wild pretty faster in the Durant trade. Maybe you could have waited, kept bridges, maybe got Dame for like 60% where he gave up for Durant. You know, bridges and Dame. Maybe that would have been a better path. What do you think? What do you think he would say after eight tequila shots and truth serum? They should have bought the Cardinals.

I think he wouldn't waver one bit. You have to recall the circumstances under which he took over the ownership. The previous one was disgraced exit. He had to rebuild the brand in Phoenix. The Phoenix area loathed Sarver at the end of it. And what you need as the new guy coming in is the bright flash. It's Kevin effing Durant.

Like, Dave's nice. It's Kevin effing Durant. So that's the answer. So you think he would? What do you think, Marcelo? I think that... You don't think he'd be like, you think, Marcelo? I think that... You don't think he'd be like, maybe I did get a little excited there.

Well, the thing that was crazy about the trade is that he kind of wasn't bidding against anybody. Because remember, Durant had the audacity on top of everything else to be like, and I want out and I don't want there to be any sort of competition for my services. It's such a good point. He was bidding against the Sarver legacy.

Yeah. He's bidding against— I think it's really hard, especially when you're an owner. I mean, any owner would be like, hey, we get Durant. Think about the teams that we're trying to jockey for. Boston was trying to jockey for it before the season. Toronto, although people tell you Toronto actually doesn't want to do anything. They just want to draft, and then—

Messiah's like, we won the title. And then besides like we won the title, I'm good when the title is like, I'm actually not going to trade any of these guys and then I'll let them leave in free agency. Uh, I think a tequilas would get you a little closer to the truth. And it's like, man, I kind of did give up a lot.

Man. Therefore, I got super excited. He was just sitting there, but I also like, you know, if you're owning a team and it's like, you want Durant, you have durant tonight listen game three and game four in that denver series it

seemed like the best trade possible watching those two guys together you don't like that question house which question the question about durant okay do you think that question the tequila do you think the tequila question is better or worse than when Sean Hayes and Smartless asked Bill why he didn't play professional sports and covered it instead? Come on. I did enjoy that. Sean Hayes is a good guy. Come on. No straight votes for Sean Hayes.

Well, I should have. Maybe he's right. Maybe I should have just been a professional athlete. If you had answered that seriously and said, you know, looking back. I should have played in the NBA. I didn't quite understand what it took. The fact that nobody said a sound and you answered it straight. Yeah.

That if I could have had a camera on me in my car, listening to that question, because it was just sort of out of nowhere. Like, how come you didn't play professionally? And you said, I should have made was just sort of out of nowhere. Like, how come you didn't play professionally? No, the move is, I should have made up some sort of thing like,

well, I was, you know, I was one of the best male gymnasts in Massachusetts until I was age nine. And then,

it was just, you know, my body was bent up. Because I was waiting for everybody to then pile on. Right. And it was,

it was so absurd. Might have been edited. No one said anything. Los Angeles Lakers, 46 and a half. Why didn't you play for the Lakers? They're close. I should have. 46 and a half plus

370 for the division. A wager I may have already made. Plus 750 for the conference. 13-1 for the title. Plus 850 for the one seed 13-1 for the title. Plus 850 for the one seed. They were 43-39 last year and that was after they started what, 1-10?

And had the most dysfunctional October or November possible? It just kills me. You like them. You think they're good and you like them. I really like them. Is this the most you've liked them?

I really like the team. I like what they did. I like like them. This is the most you've liked them. I really like the team. I like what they did. I like the assets. The team makes sense to me. I think they can survive LeBron disappearing for 15 games, and they'd be okay. I think they have a lot of trade assets. House, they have the Russell contract,

Max Christie, and Hood Schifino. They have two firsts. Yeah, they're first. They kept that first. Castleton. That was the thing. Super frisky in December, January. And I just think this team's going to be really good.

I thought they were good last year. I thought they were the second best team in the league by the end of the season. And if you're going to tell me, LeBron James, this is year 21, and this is now too unrealistic, I think it's actually pretty realistic that he can be still a top 30 guy in the league and they use him as a DH anyway. I thought they relied on him too much

last year in the playoffs, but to me, it's like- I don't think they had a choice. I would have done more Reeves. I really felt like Reeves was cooking it. Maybe this year Reeves gets more, but I'm way over. What are you, Rosillo?

I'm over. I like this team a lot. And I'm honestly pretty blown away. Like when you think about the job a front office can do to figure this out on the fly, you know, and then always like, you better hope you don't get what you want. Because think how different it would be without the depth and having Kyrie.

And it's like, cool, you got Kyrie. And neither pick. They would have lost both picks. Yeah. So it really comes down to this. Like if Anthony Davis is going to play like playoff Anthony Davis, where I couldn't, I mean, I had like, it was a PSA. I watched him in that Memphis regular season game.

Yeah. And I went, I'm out. I can't do it anymore. Every time he falls down, I think he's done. It's going to happen with Zion in like January. Maybe. But then as soon as I did it. The I'm out i can't do it anymore every time he falls down i think he's done it's gonna happen with zion in like january maybe but then as soon as i did it right but as soon as i did it like it's almost like he had to keep falling down and build up the scar tissue to it and it was like so then when he fell down again people weren't joking like seven to ten days yeah like they would do at a scores table every time he fell down so uh if if Anthony Davis is is close to being right and he was real

right in the playoffs like that's the whole point that's the reason why you freak out about this guy when a real conversation was happening is like would you just be better off trading him and the problem is is like if you want to trade him that means that he's been hurt so much that you need to figure out something else that means his mark so like the best version of this a lot of times is the patience and And I like him. I like the team. I like the depth. I mean, look,

I'm not going to like D'Angelo Russell. Everybody knows that, but. I don't think he's on the team in February. Well, that contract reeks of like. Yeah, I think they made an agreement. I think they wink winked it with them and like, hey, we're going to pay you extra

and you might not be on the team February. House, Anthony Davis turns 31 in March. He's made four all NBA teams, none since 2020. He's never four all NBA teams, none since 2020. He's never even been top two in the MVP. And yet he is considered to be one of the league's best players. Is that justified? Absolutely. Positively. Yes. Okay. What he did in delivering that team to the playoffs last year and, and putting them in a position to get swept by Denver. But those were by far the most competitive games of the entire NBA finals.

So the entire NBA playoffs with the Lakers and Nuggets. Those were the best games. They were the most competitive games. And there's a physicality they still have that they had last year that is going to be a real problem for a lot of these teams. Like when they play Phoenix, if they're against Phoenix in a playoff series, that's going to be a fascinating matchup where one hand a lot of these teams. Like when they play Phoenix, that's going to be if they're against Phoenix in a playoff series, that's going to be a fascinating matchup where on the one hand, a lot of offense. On the other

hand, the Lakers are just going to be able to overpower them. I think they bullied the NFL. Yeah, they did it to the Warriors. I mean, the Warriors had a real crisis. Worst possible matchup for the Warriors. Yeah. Because you just knew like anytime, anything with any momentum, even with LeBron towards the hoop, it was a good look. And if Davis wasn't scoring a ton

he was cleaning everything up he was changing it was you know it was kind of nice to see a big guy you know the davis that we all fell in love with the reason why you know this guy was that yeah was that hey he's the big guy even though there's still some numbers with him we were like how come you don't shoot it the way you used to shoot it or whatever but uh well they lucked out they got the reeves deal done for just the craziest possible contract he had an awesome team usa you know there's a genoble i think kind of ceiling for him as uh a really really crafty creative offensive guard who's not afraid of the moment who seems like he gets better whatever stage it's in, who's feisty. Really, really, really special playoff player

for where he came from, where he wasn't even drafted. I don't know. Rui Hachimura? I don't know. They paid him. Do you trust it? All the feedback in the summer and the preseason was pretty good.

You have to trust it. This is the thing. All of these guys that they've acquired, they're going to be different players because of this situation with LeBron, with Anthony Davis.

Like, you know, I was as skeptical as anybody of Hachimura. I said, you know, good luck. But the situation was so radically different for him. It was a revelation and he flourished. Like, he earned the money that they gave him. And he gave them, he kept that bully ball different for him. It was a revelation. And he flourished.

He earned the money that they gave him. And he gave them, he kept that bully ball thing for them. Vincent's like perfect. It was so funny when they signed him. I was like, as somebody who hates the Lakers, I was like, oh, God damn it.

Really? They got that guy too? I think Rui is a little overrated because of the playoff games. Sure. He's still under 30%. I don't trust him yet. You know, he's physically so much bigger at times you're like god damn is he big you know and

then he'll hit a couple turnarounds yeah and you know he went off a couple of memphis games but for the most part like you look at the numbers you're like how much did you have to pay this guy again so i mean there's a reason why you know with LA it's going to be easier for him there's not as much of a burden he's not a lottery pick he's in Washington

but the fact that Washington could only get a second rounder for him I think speaks to like a lot of the people turn the page on him and there's only a

couple team places for him to go it's a deep team I have no idea if Christian Wood's going to play one meaningful minute for them well no he'll play

he'll play he'll come in if he's with the second unit and he's going to make a bunch of shots it was a good risk for them yeah absolutely LeB, he'll play. He'll play. He'll come in if he's with the second unit and he's going to make a bunch of shots and people are going to look at his numbers.

It was a good risk for them. Yeah, absolutely. LeBron's one of the greatest basketball players of all time and you want to throw different people next to him that, you know, could go either way.

Right, and I'll get to LeBron in a private moment after two months and be like, don't fucking play this guy with me anymore. Right, and LeBron will be like, get that guy out of here

and they'll get him out or he'll be like, I like this guy and I'll take, well, no. That won't happen. I don't want to, whenever you sub him they'll get him out. Or he'll be like, I like this guy. And I'll take, well, now, um, that won't happen. I'll go. I don't want to,

whenever you sub him in, take me out. LeBron sees him at the table and just starts walking to the bench. LeBron house, 1,703 games, playoffs, regular season combined 66,000 minutes, getting close to that.

Awesome. It's not realistic anymore. So I'm not going to do the thing. It's become like Brady those last couple years where you're like, you know what? I'm out.

I'm out trying to figure out if this is the year when all of a sudden this isn't going to happen anymore. It's just, is he going to play 25 years? Maybe. Well, because it doesn't matter.

Like, anybody going, well, he's going to slow down. Like, what do you want? You want your own TV show for that one? Like, great. But, uh... He can still go to the basket right

he's impossible to defend a referee he can get in the paint and do things he's he can coast and get 30 still as a basketball player he can solve any issue but he doesn't have to like he almost figures out okay i'm gonna go hard on the second sub in in the first half. I'm going to try these six minutes. The third quarter when they put that sub in, that's when I'm going to put my gear in. I love the over. This is going to be one of my locks. I also really like the one seed bet for them plus 850

because I think this team has a chance to be in the mid-50s. I just like the value of it. I'll just tell you that I'll reveal in the part three whether I pick Celtics versus Lakers or Celtics Nuggets as my finals. But those are the three teams for me and Milwaukee probably four. I really like what they did.

Palenka, you know, that dude almost got fired. 19, Magic completely threw him under the bus that one summer. LeBron was basically, you know, trying to force them to do all this stuff last year and give away every asset they had. And he kind of held the course. He made some really good trades.

All right, Golden State. So we're all over on the Lakers? House, you're over? Over, definitely over. Over. Absolutely over. All right. Golden State, 47 and a half plus 390 for the division

last year 44 and 38 no playoffs for them plus 300 if you want to say this goes badly Rosillo you're guys in this team now yeah

year 19 yep you'll be shocked to know that after it seemed like a part gamble on Chris Paul and a part, we got to get Jordan pool out of here and we're getting an expiring contract

for him. And let's just move on trade that he's been in the building and everybody's been like, Oh wow. Chris Paul's pretty good. It's going to help us. Wow. This is going to be fun.

Um, I was not shocked to hear that. Nope. But I definitely think longterm like closing minutes, knowing that Chris Paul is not, he does not play this way, but I also think he term like closing minutes knowing that chris paul is not he does not play this way but i also think he's smart enough to go okay well you got to figure it out but if you think of him starting or closing then it's like well which three guys like how are you closing with those like i think there's a real a four thing really worries me yeah because he

doesn't rebound so now you're you're it's not like you have a rim cleaning center anyway and now you're going to have Clay who doesn't rebound. So what are you going to do? Steph, CP, Clay, Draymond,

Wiggins? Like, you know, and Looney is so good now that you almost think he deserves to close. I think Looney's out. I think,

and you have to tell Wiggins you got to rebound, dude. We're going small. We're, we're emphasizing creativity and Wiggins, you have to, it's. We're going small. We're emphasizing creativity. And Wiggins, you have to. It's like in the finals. Like he rebounded in the playoffs in 2022.

So he's going to have to do that against good teams. As much as I like my guy on a team that I've had a lot of fun with, I just don't think they're going to prioritize the regular season at all. So I go under. I totally agree with Rosillo here. Okay. I am a big fat over. Oh, wow.

Inside Intel? Nope. They won 44 games last year and they were a fucking reality TV show. Their season started with Draymond punching Jordan Poole in the face and then a team employee thinking that.

So you're thinking you're removed. You're removed. I think last year was a season from hell in every respect. Makes me think Kerr is. Year removed. I think last year was a season from hell in every respect. Makes me think Kerr is telling you that. No. They were 44-38 last year. I need four more wins.

Well, Chris Paul is going to be better for them than Jordan Poole. I also think, God damn, I can't believe I'm saying this. I'm kind of in on year three Kaminga. I'm kind of in. I've been, listen, been studying listen been studying a quarter a quarter and uh looks like those discovery properties where you're like yeah i'm looking at a place in portugal like cominga island like yeah i just got this no road electric cominga island take it a look i'm gonna fly down there to check it out moodyody, a year older. I'll tell you

this. Always liked Dario Saric on a really smart, fun team. I thought that was a sneaky one. Clay in a contract year? They've gotten to 48 wins once in the last four seasons. It was the year that they went to the finals and won. Yes. That's what happened, but they were

17th in defense last year. This is a last hurrah for this team in the sense of I don't I don't know if Clay's gonna be on this team next year

and Bob Myers and that ESPN did that countdown yesterday and Woj was talking about how they're not negotiating the extension and Bob Myers

said something really interesting he's basically like this is one of the reasons I didn't want that job anymore because you build relationships with these people. And then at some point you have to make tough decisions. If you read between the lines, you're like, wow, are you saying you don't think

Clay's going to be in the Warriors next year? Because that was how I interpreted it. I just, I think they're all in on this season. 48 and 34 seems reasonable to me. And I think there's a coming a wild card piece that I like. And I'm in on this team so you're under riscilla yeah i'm under i think they're going to pace themselves and you're right like last year was a weird disaster they couldn't win on the road for like a team that you're like hey when they're good they're still pretty good on certain nights if they hadn't had the lakers

right um the the road stuff the defensive stuff on the road like you wait are they actually going to be that bad so i get your overlook with it but i don't think they're going to care i think they are they with the lakers are probably going to care the least or maybe even phoenix i don't know i just think some of these these groups i don't think anybody cares about seeding anymore. I just don't. It's an under for me as well. The thing I'm more concerned about is the injury risk. A bunch of these guys haven't played full seasons in a while.

So the Curry piece of this, which we haven't really talked about, this is the most fun LeBron legacy buster team because Curry would get his fifth. Chris Paul would finally get a title. And then Steve Kerr, I think I have this right. This would be his 10th title if they won. 10 rings for him, which puts him in like this. It's like basically him and Phil Jackson. Well, does red have 10 red had uh he has red had nine okay but then he got the gm ones i'm just saying player coach titles player coach okay so not gm so i'm just gonna say this about curry

that was a pretty embarrassing season for them last year and then they get their ass kicked by lebron and whether no those guys are never going to admit it, but those guys are in a little, you know, these are the two defining players of this generation for better and worse. I just don't see him being like, oh, yeah, well, we don't care about the Royals. I actually think they do care about kind of reclaiming some turf here. And that's part of my case. I hope you're right.

I just, I think it's about the playoffs for them. You know, like one, Clay or Steph or Chris Paul,

one of these guys is probably going down with something at some point. 44 and 38. How many games did Wiggins miss? I forgot to mention that part. He missed,

what, half the season? 37 games. Yeah. And I'd like Kamingo's up. I'm in on this. They just got to play defense if you tell me that they're committed to playing defense if they're not going to be a league

average defense then i i might subscribe to your thing but i don't think they're going to do that do you see them getting ambitious with the trade if they're if they feel close january february that was another thing i was thinking with the over like would they trade cominga or moody they have a bunch of picks. They could get... Trading for Wiseman, maybe? Bring him back? Bring Wiseman back. Unfortunately, I don't blame them for trying to see if they had anything

with any of these guys, but now what do you think? Now it's Shittergate. Especially when you have all these other teams. Like, fuck it. Take them. Take all my picks. Take all my swaps. Take every young guy i have but who's who's the player that i hate doing this on the fly because it's just i just say siakam now for every fake trade mr siakam's a good one except toronto just be like no don't want to trade him

uh i don't know who fits that profile because that's the part of the chris paul thing where it's like a get off pools money i don't think they want to just do an expiring you know it's a lot like the the d'angelo russell thing where that saved the salary slot knowing they were losing durant for nothing right and that flips into wiggins and then the pick later on and all that stuff so i don't know if the chris paul part of it's like hey the pool deal was way too much we actually get to reset the deck here a bit once chris paul expires or if they go you know what this didn't really fit basketball wise well i think that was part of the trade right if it gets to january february and they're like eh he's right yeah do you think

the clay extension turns into a little bit of a soap opera like bob myers was saying on the show last night he's like this guy's to have a statue outside the chase center. So you just have to, when you're negotiating extension with somebody, you just have to factor in that part. This guy is eternal for the warriors. You can't fuck around with this. But if Clay's like,

I want another three years at 40 million a piece. Like, I just don't think they're going to do it. I don't know. That one's tough. Let's take a break. They shouldn't. They shouldn't.

Right. Let's take a break. We'll go to Sacramento. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day, all the gangs here, you're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell

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is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. All right. I know I've said this a couple of times already, but the single toughest team for me was the Sacramento Kings.

I have flip-flopped on this 130 times. Their over-under is 44 and a half. They won 48 games last year and everybody's back. They added Vysankov. They traded for Chris Duarte. Keegan Murray's a year older. The team's a year later and playing with Mike Brown and playing together. And all indications seems they're not going to drop five wins,

but the West is so good. They've been an under for some people. Minus 230 for the playoffs. Plus 180 for the no playoffs. I landed on overhouse, but I flip-flopped on this 10 times. And it's probably going to come down in the final two games. I just think that conference is better. Not, not breaking any ground with that, but we do this thing sometimes with the conferences where we talk about last

year. It was like, well, they won all these games last year. And you know, Phoenix was a mess. Most of the season, the Lakers started off super slow. The Warriors, you go through. Conference was a mess. This year, it's not going to be as much of a mess. So that would be the case. They're five wins less. I'm going to take them over as well.

Because I think they're going to win 45 games. Yeah, they're going to be right there. And I am not going to not light the beam. That's the thing. I can't not light the beam this upcoming season. They earned it. They are horrendous defensively, and they are not going to improve. Their roster isn't built for it.

But I still love the offense, and they have to have continued good injury luck. Injury luck was great last year. Yes, a lot of guys miss. That's a key element of it. Russillo? I know how you keep pointing to the West eventually became an absolute mess, but we can't just project best-case scenario

for the 12 teams that we all think are good. But clearly Vegas, when they're putting these numbers out, I was just dying laughing going, there's eight teams here within a game or two of each other, and it's all right around this 45-46 number. I know they don't play defense. I know they had great health luck, but they're still young enough.

I think they're going to be a motivated team throughout the year. I think Mike Brown did a really good job of kind of changing up what they would look like to even close games, which is hard for a guy who's kind of doing it for the first time. And even if it feels like Sabonis is a bit exposed now,

like he kind of had a playoff moment where you're like, wait, what's this? Now, granted, his hand was like actually broken. His hand was fucked up. Everybody's like, that's just falling off when people talk like that'm glad that i'm glad you brought it up but you brought it up too right so i just i think they're too young and it's too new for them to kind of coast yeah so give me the over and they have a great home crowd that's going to be treating every single home game like it's murray will be better yeah they got duarte which i really liked i like the over i don't i really did worry that they just got passed by a few teams because i i agree with

what you said like every year there's weird random stuff with conferences but when you think like phoenix and the lakers are just going to be so much harder to play you just take those two and then the bottom of the conference is better too because they've just houston san antonio utah like all those teams added talent so could you could we uh go down a very quick sub-tangent yeah i um like them for the in-season tournament we haven't really talked about that yet okay they're in a pod the other teams in their pod i was getting you excited about this yeah yeah yeah well now i'm looking it up and the point that you guys just made about how important that that home court situation is there they are going to try in the regular season that was their identity last year that's not going to diminish

if they're healthy and they're trying i like them 171. I like them in this in-season tournament. The in-season, they kind of stacked it where it's probably going to be most of the best teams. There might be one outlier, but you might get like an Orlando or somebody weird in there. But for the most part, it would be like seven of the eight best teams or six of the eight best teams. And who knows?

But yeah, the odds on FanDuel for them, they're all like plus 950 or higher for any in-season team. What's interesting about what you said about the overrunners, Rosillo, when they came out, they made the West too high and they made the play out. They had too many kind of yes playoff odds

and it was just kind of, and there was all these opportunities. Sacramento is one of the teams that I think that one dropped by a game. I think Golden State dropped by a game. I think Golden State dropped by a game. Minnesota dropped. Memphis dropped. Like, Philly was at 49 and a half.

Now it's at 47 and a half. So they kind of made them too high and then dropped when they realized, oh, shit, there's too many good teams. But this feels like mid-40s to me. All right, we all went over it. Did you crunch Vysenkov tape over the summer or no? No. Bearded first-team all tape over the summer or no? No. Bearded first team

all-star for you or second team all-beard? I was just waiting for George to play Mizzou first. Okay. Then we're on it.

You seen him? I don't know what his game is. He's like this tall kind of crafty fills the lane. He's just like a classic.

You can see that he was the EuroLeague MVP. I don't know was a euro league mvp i don't know if it's going to translate i don't know i i wasn't able to figure it out clippers well i'd be happy to get somebody good because recently i feel like these vets that come over the euro guys compasso i hated him within minutes yeah like who's this there's this mishich on the oklahoma city yeah but these guys are better these guys are better than some of these dudes that have come over. Fontenacchio.

I'm like, what? I actually just went to Illinois. Clippers, 45 and a half. They're minus 230 to make the playoffs, plus 196 not to, which is one of my favorite bets. No thanks. I have one rule. I'm not going to be wrong on the over with them.

No way. I'll be wrong on the under. I will not be wrong on the over with them. No way. I'll be wrong on the under. I will not be wrong on the over. Couldn't agree more. I mean, we're going to just jump right to it. Fuck these guys. They don't care, so I don't care. And Ty Lue.

That's all I thought. It's like the most definitive of the 30 teams. I go, I don't care if I'm wrong, but I care if I'm wrong that I had hope. Very fair. They have probably the worst centers in the league. They have Russell Westbrook in a prominent position. And it's a team built around two guys who don't play that much. The Kawhi numbers are jarring.

I like Plumlee against Jokic. Okay. I mean, I'm not saying. Just know, crunch the Plumlee tape. Heic. Okay. I mean, I'm not saying. Just know, crunch the Plumlee tape. He gets into it. He's excited. Last six years, Kawhi missed 73, 22, 15, 20, 82, and 30. Those are his missed game stats.

Paul George, last four years, 24, 18, 51, and 26 missed games. It's a bit like, remember the Kyrie thing where he was barely playing? He played like once every 10 games. Everybody in a bit like, remember the Kyrie thing where he was barely playing? Like, he played like once every 10 games. Right. Everybody in the business was like freaking out going,

how can he do this? It's like, actually, because he doesn't play all that often, imagine being this fresh all the time. Yeah.

Then Kawhi steps up in that Phoenix series before he gets hurt again and you're like, oh my God, is he going to do this again? Yeah. Is Phoenix going to lose

because Kawhi's like going nuts? Right. And then it becomes this compliment that you can go that long without playing i should it should be the other way around like no shit you look so fresh like i could have taken house on my morning power walk today and you could have done 90 minutes and be like look at house fucking walking around la tomorrow you would have been like in a hospital bed but, you would have been in a hospital bed. But today, you could have done it. I am a hard under on this team, and it's a possible lock. I think the 45 and a half is ridiculous. And people are talking about George and Kawhi like it's 2020, and it's just not. And if they get there, great.

But I'm not going to bet on that or pick it. A GM in the GM survey still picked them to win the West. Some people cannot quit this team. Also their depth is like pretty overrated like Covington and Morris and Remember last year at the beginning of the year

it's like oh this is the most talented team in the league. And you're like what? There's a below average player at this point. I like Norman Powell

a lot. Me too. I like Kenyon Martin Jr. He's going to look at it in the Sixers. Batum you know it's still happening I guess.

Bones Highland. Like if we went out for drinks with Balmer and Balmer's like, oh man, like I can have Harden. It's basically Powell and my unprotected.

I wouldn't trade Powell straight up for James Harden. Yeah. Just so you know. Right. So we would be at the bar and be like, wait, Powell

and an unprotected first? And they also want Terrence Mann. I'm like, I'm going to tell them and be like, wait, Powell and an unprotected first? And they also want Terrence Mann? I'm like, I'm going to tell them to fuck off. They have no other suitors. That's ridiculous. Also, have you watched James Harden in the last 12 playoffs? I don't understand because it keeps feeling like it's going to get done. I mean, I don't know if you agree with me or not.

Well, because they have the new stadium next year. They don't want to be irrelevant. But I love this. I love this new stadium thing. It's true. Hey, does this make any sense? Is there anything that makes sense here? Does it make sense to invest in him? Does it make sense like as a playoff guy? Like, but we're moving into a new stadium. Well, what does it mean if I'm moving into a new house? It's like, you can't run ads and say, we have our unprotected picks in 27, 28, and 29. Clippers basketball. Come get it. You can't.

It's like, look at James Harden, 2018 MVP. Kawhi Leonard, 2019 finals MVP. It's the wrong way of doing business though. I know, but these guys are. Just because you're moving into a new arena. It's like, hey, if two guys aren't playing, this guy shits down his leg. We literally just had this conversation about Phoenix, though. That's why Ishbia went out and did what he did for Durant.

These guys have not proven they can play for nine months. Yeah, that's a joke. They just can't. It's a hard-on-under for me. Whatever you think of the Phoenix transactions, it's nothing like potentially like, hey, if you wanted to grab Harden four years ago, I get it. I get it.en four years ago, I get it.

I get it. Not for me, but I get it. If they didn't have Westbrook, I would be like, all right, I kind of see it. You do? No, no, no. I wouldn't do it either way, but they also have Westbrook. What's the point of putting Harden and Westbrook on a team together? That's insane.

Comedy. And I'm here for it. So comedy-wise, content-wise, podcast-wise, it's phenomenal. I recommend it. I meant to ask you if you thought the Lakers

would say fuck it and trade for Harden in February. If it was like Russell and a contract and nothing else. Like, just like... That's not crazy.

It's not crazy, right? That's not crazy. Because I was trying to think, is there any other Harden team? And that's like, that would be an interesting Lakers swing. Anyway. By the way, I don't think it's crazy

because I just think the Stars are really terrible GMs. And they'd be like, yeah. So they'd say, hey, LeBron, what do you think of Harden? I love him. Right. He's one of my best friends. Like bucket getter.

I was talking to my sister, Asia Wilson, about her um we're gonna take a break and then we're gonna do the central division which is fun for about two teams and then gets grim when your celebration of life is prepaid in advance, it becomes a gift from you to your family later, because no one should have to plan for a loss while they're experiencing one. Paying in advance protects your loved ones and gives you the peace of mind you deserve. Let us help you plan every detail with professionalism and compassion. We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at dignityignityMemorial.ca.

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Limited time offer, conditions apply. Visit rbc.com slash Avion. The central, the biggest argument is the Milwaukee Bucks. Their over is 53 and a half. They're plus 380 to win the title. They're plus 175 for the conference, plus 165 for the one seed, minus 360 for the division.

They added Dame Lillard. We don't need to rehash that. We did a lot of podcast content on all of our podcasts about it. I don't think this team is deep enough to be a mid-50s win team. And I say that because as I'm looking at their depth chart and I see guys like Conadon, Malik Beasley, one of the Anacumpo

brothers, the kid who's the rookie they drafted, the number 38, the defensive was Andre Jackson. Who the Yukon kid? Yeah. Yeah. Middleton's there obviously, but, um, I have no idea what he's come, what he's thinking from a health standpoint. Jay Crowder. I just think their perimeter defense is going to be bad, and I think it's going to cost them if you're just thinking of them in the context of can this team win like 56 games. So, House, for me, it's an under. I think the under is a little too high. I don't know they have Giannis on their team.

Yeah, I agree. And it doesn't really reflect on how I think about their ultimate fortunes. They're not deep and the right thing for them to do. They're clearly good enough to go win 50 games. Do they care enough to go win 55? Does it make sense? Are they going to have health sufficient to go win 55? Right.

Brooke Lopez is 35 years old. Edelton hasn't really been healthy in a couple years now. It's not disrespectful to me to say that they're going to win 53 games and that's under. I think it's really hard for a team that's going to be pretty strange defensively

where they have real strengths in some spots. They have one of the two best players in the world. And then they have... This is a team that signed campaign and was super excited about it like we got campaign cool um i just don't see mid 50s for them what do you have riscilla i'm gonna go over just because look you had four teams over 50 wins last year in the east yep uh they clearly have the best chance to be the one or two seed besides boston and you know over the course of the conference bet yeah well i like this there's there's all this

uncertainty in the west but like even with the bottom of the east when i was looking at the over-unders i'm like you know like orlando is a good example i know we're gonna get to it but you're going like i really want to give them almost 40 wins right i'm like can i find 40 wins for this team are they ready are they there yet sorry so sorry you know i started kind of looking at like detroit in there and then chicago like i started this became a overplay for me because a bunch of ones where if it was like flip a coin it was an under totally reasonable sucking up wins from the Chicago's and the Toronto's. The Philly number's high. I can't believe it came out at 49.5.

That was nuts. It still seems high. Well, new coach, Adrian Griffin. They got rid of Coach Bud. One of my favorite players of all time. I know. For the record. The defense, we'll see.

I think it's going to be pretty rough, especially the Dame piece of it when people haven't watched him have to play real defense in four years I like that he said his defense is actually a little overlooked

I mean just one time overlooked if you're trying to get 60 one time I'd like a guy to go I'm not good I can do better yeah I can do better

I'm not good over there I need help like I looked and then I had to put on my glasses what's overlooked mean overlooked I may have the wording wrong but it was just basically like I don't get enough not good over there. I need help. Like I looked and then I had to put on my glasses. What's overlooked mean? Overlooked like how bad it was last year? I may have the wording wrong,

but it was just basically like I don't get enough credit for like some of the stuff I do do. And we're like, well, you don't. I've never heard you. You do. You're an incredible offensive player. House,

will this be Giannis' greatest year? 29 years old. Last five years, 29, 12, and 6. 56% field goal. But now he's playing with somebody who at least offensively is going to bring out a little extra for him. Defensively,

he's not going to have Drew. He's probably going to take a bigger defensive burden, but offensively, he'll be allowed to actually take a bigger defensive burden. I remember that stuff with bud too. It's like, why wouldn't you just throw this fucking freak, Jimmy Butler in a couple

possessions just just to see what happens like no no no no yeah we can't disrupt what we do it's only game 90 we gotta save them save them for the last look i'm not even saying it guaranteed like it was gonna work chances are it'd be pretty shitty having the ball, putting it on the floor and being like, I got to go around this guy. So I don't know. What's give me your highest Giannis season. That's not crazy stat wise. So last five years, average 29, 12 and six last year, he was 31 and 12. Like, is it crazy to think he's like a 33, 13 and seven this year?

Shooting like 57%? None of that matters to me. I don't think he cares. I don't think he needs to take 22 shots a game. I'm just trying to figure out how impactful he's going to be compared to the last five years we watched. Like, what is the Dame, bringing in the Dame agent to this, what does this do for him statistically?

I think Dame's going to have so many secondary break threes that are wide open because I think that's one of the best many secondary break threes that are wide open. Cause I think that's one of the best parts of Giannis's game is getting going. And if he can't break through the wall, not trying to be political and kicks it out to Dame, like, you know,

think of the other guys that have been taking those shots or missing some of them. I also think the biggest thing is like, you kind of can see in your head, Middleton getting into his offense. You can kind of see what Drew was or wasn't. Like, as much as I'm excited about Drew on the Celtics, like, if he was the guy taking the second most shots in a playoff game,

then that may not be what you want by design. The fact that it's Lillard now, you can just envision him getting into all of this stuff. I just think it raises their profile so much offensively. So I don't, I don't have like, I don't think it's, Hey,

now Giannis goes for 35. He could have his best season and still be lower in some of the traditional numbers. So what if he goes 29, but the assists go up by two assists and he gets four blocks a game or five blocks a game. Like there's other areas. Five blocks a game would be like historically great.

Let's give him three. Okay. Three. So what if it's like 27 and 15? Yeah. Yeah. other areas. Five bucks a game would be like historically great. Let's give him three. Okay, three. I was like, five's a lot. So what if it's like 27 and 15? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

With like three bucks a game. I mean, I'm trying to work out the cognitive dissonance between this team winning 53 games, but him having, because I really love him

for the MVP odds this season. I've almost voted him MVP each of the last two years. I think he's the best kind of high favorite odd, 6-1, and I like Booker for kind of the long shot.

Look, as great as Jokic is, I feel like a bit of the belt conversation is a little dismissive to Giannis. Jokic doesn't, well, now that's fair, but Jokic wants no part of any of these conversations. Okay, but that's like, for what we do, and I know it can be like the recency bias of all this stuff, obviously, right?

But we're two rings removed from Giannis. I still think like this idea that there's no way like Giannis can recapture the belt. I think that's a mistake. Who's saying that? Yeah. I mean, Jokic has the belt right now. It's pretty definitive,

but I think Giannis could grab it back this year. So belt availability is how many guys? Two? I just think it's those two, honestly. I don't think Tatum is ready yet to be in that combo, and I don't really see anybody else. Tatum has to push himself into it. We saw it for a bit the beginning of last season.

And I think Embiidid giving up on that one. Not him, but just like... Not under these circumstances. The playoff performance now, it's not just a cold streak. This is kind of who you are. This is what the stats are and what the performance is

year after year after year in the playoffs. This is kind of who you are. Look, I've brought it up a couple times, but I feel like Embiid in a weird way because people like him so much that he hasn't caught nearly as much shit as other guys. Well, there's always been somebody else to blame, too.

It's like Ben Simmons, James Harden. Fievel. The coaches of the two Eastern Conference favorites are Joe Mazzola and Adrian Griffin. Just wanted to mention that. It's a wildcard for this year. Cleveland Cavaliers, 50 and a half.

And it seems jarring. It's like, man, that's high. Well, they won 51 last year. Well, the conference probably got a little worse. I don't even have a pick yet. I wrote under right now, but I might change my mind because I haven't decided. I haven't decided yet. I wrote under right now, but I might change my mind

because I haven't decided. I haven't decided yet. I want to talk it out with you guys. Strews, they added. Niang. Niang, the winningest player of the 2020s. Most wins. They added Mobley's brother.

I don't know if that's a good sign or a bad sign. He's actually all right. I liked him in college. There's some Imani Bates. I can't believe how bad he was at the combine. And then everybody loved him after. Yeah. There's some Imani Bates building.

Um, I guess my first question is, Hey, Evan Mobley, it's time. Let's see something. What do you got? So you're off the Duncan profile?

I have a lot of stock. Let's go. Your grandkids are coming over being like, Bill, we need to diversify this. It's like more AI, less Evan Mobley, more AI, artificial intelligence is where's that? I know that Netscape was huge there for a little while, buddy.

Everyone else is buying crypto. I was buying Evan Mobley. Can you, can you make a 25 footer? He, he needs to develop something else that is a go-to offensively and it still at times feels a little are you just the center and that's where you where you should be playing yeah did you get exposed in a two center thing where you were trying to zag against somebody else look those

four guys they're on off stuff with garland with mobley with alan and mitchell was like one of the best groupings you'd have. They were second point differential in the East. And yet, you're right. When I saw the 50 and a half, despite winning 51 games last year, I just was like, I can't. I don't think I can. They started at 8-1 last year, House. 43-30 the rest of the way.

So the case would be Garland and Mobley are young. I think we both really like those guys as assets. those guys miss time though too um could those guys make a little leap what do you have house um they had the expected wins based on their point differential was 55 which just feels insane for a portion of the season. They led, you know, in point differential and that, you know, everybody, the smart folks I'll point to that as a real good indicator. And there's a defensive backbone with them that, um, you know, I just don't want to overreact cause they Mitchell had a bad Knicks series and Mobley was disappointing. Yeah. This is, that's the point.

The Mitchell thing I think is easier to get over, but this really has more to do with the playoffs than the regular season. After that Knicks series, I started thinking, wait, is the problem here that you have two people that don't need to defend? We talked about that a bunch. The Mitchell-Garland combo,

do those two guys ultimately make sense if you're trying to win multiple playoff rounds? What else were you going to say, House? Just that they're built for a regular season success and i think that they will come in with a with an idea motivated to like get that bad next taste out of their mouth and get on with it this is another team that i'll be looking at for that in-season tournament kind of thing those odds because i just think they're kind of built for that that that defense um you know they showed us in the regular season, that's like a regular season kind of defense, so that's fine.

And they have a couple moves that they can make. I really like the Strew signing, not what they paid for, but just for what he's going to bring to them because he's been in a lot of big games. He's a guy who can take over a quarter and just make like four threes out of nowhere. The big question for me is, Mitchell not staying there

long-term is probably the worst kept secret in the league. And if it's not the worst kept, it's in the top three. So what point does that, does that put pressure on this season? And at what point did the Cavs kind of admit that that's how this is probably playing out? And does that change if they start out slow this year, the first, you know how this is probably playing out. And does that change if they start out slow this year, the first, you know how this goes, especially with the information guys, Monday morning, you wake up. One of the information guys has a story to try to set the tone for the week that, that then they can talk on all the TV shows about it. It's like, this is going to be Donovan Mitchell's last year in Cleveland. And then all of a sudden it's like, whoa, okay. Everyone does the podcast. We have all the TV shows about it. And it's like the 48

hour cycle. And I just feel like that's going to happen at some point with this team. And the biggest mistake you could be making is thinking you're like, okay, see what Durant, because for Durant, even if you were holding out, hope that you could keep them, which I'd still say you probably felt more positive about it back then than you would for Mitchell this year. Yeah. Right. You're like,

okay, if you're running the calves, like, can we let the asset walk for nothing? No, we gave up for it. Right. Or if we're doing that,

like, are we preventing ourselves from a really deep Eastern conference run? And it sits here today. Like maybe it all comes together. Maybe Mobley has more offense. Maybe they figure out how to stagger the two centers. Because maybe the two center thing is why their point differential, all the regular season stats are so good with them. But when it comes to

the playoffs, maybe it was just the Knicks part of it. But I know I kept thinking about that pairing going. This might be the problem that you have two guys that don't have to be defended. So he's got two years left, then player option. But his number's really low right now. It's 32.6, 34.8 next year.

And it's going to be one of those things where he's going to sign an extension. It's going to be for a massive number because he has the OMBA stuff. And if that's not in motion in any way, then we're going to be on the clock with this. So who knows how it's going to go? But that's the one thing that worries me. I'm going to go over because clock with this. So who knows how it's going to go, but that's the one thing that

worries me. I'm going to go over because of the conference. I'm in over as well. Okay. I just think there's going to be one dopey over team. And I actually have the second one too that we'll get to in part three of the pod. Chicago Bulls 37 and a half. No

Lonzo this year. They are plus 172 to make the playoffs. I think you can make a case they have the worst point guards in the league. Zach Levine seemed like he was pretty available for most of the summer, but then he wasn't because the Bulls, there was no way they were trading him

because they wanted a ton for him, but yet he was in a million stories. The Rosens got an extension coming up. They took care of Vooch. House, since 2016, 42 wins, 41, 27, 22, 22, 31, 46, 41. Not where you want to be in the middle. You root for a team that's been in the middle for two-thirds of your life. Yeah, with the worst record year over year than that run.

But they're in no man's land. They have a whole bunch of great trade assets. two thirds of your life. Yeah. With the worst record year over year than, than that run. Um, but they're in no man's land. They have a whole bunch of great trade assets. They didn't do it last year. Will this be the year? 40 and 42 last year. Yeah. They held the fort for reasons that remain unclear.

They're a little bit over the luxury tax right now, which is always a red flag for them because they've never paid it. And DeRozan is a stealth sneaky trade candidate this year expiring contract there's i think he's somebody that could fit in with a lot of different teams and uh i this isn't under to me i just don't think i there's just a couple other teams i like more in the east so i'm going to under 37 and a half house you, you're under? I'm under. What are you, Rusillo? Definitely under. Okay. 40, what do we got here?

40 and 46. And remember, two years ago was that weird, hot, hot start. Yeah. And then you were like. And 500 for like the last three months. The rest of the way. Yeah. And then there was more of a carryover.

I just think they have a lot of pieces here that could be trade targets. So I would go under. They had, sometimes this happens with the NBA draft or they had prime spots in the draft the kobe white draft and then the patrick williams draft and they probably took the right players but it was just kind of the wrong spots in the draft they're like one late here and too late on they just never never hit that next piece so levine will be an interesting one to see if there's a market. Right, and Orlando had two of their picks too. Well, and that's the other thing.

They did the Vooch trade, and one of them was the Franz Wagner pick, and the other one was the Anthony Black pick. Yeah. Yeah. Rough trade. All right. Not a lot to say about the Bulls. Sorry, guys.

We didn't bring a lot of Bulls takes. Not a team I plan on watching a ton of on League Pass. Russo and I always talk about League Pass conservation. The first two months especially, you're trying to learn as much as you can. I'm not going to learn anything from the Bulls. I know what they do. It's like Levine, DeRozan, Vooch.

I get it. It was a fun first half of the season two years ago, man. Yeah. That was, that was fun. Like the place was rocking, you know,

Saturday night game in Chicago. And then it was like, are they really this good? It was like, no, they're not. They're definitely going to beat Boston the first time they play Boston, because it's just a team of guys who kill Boston.

Vooch kills Porzingis. There's like, I'm just promising you Chicago wins that first game. Pacers, 38 and a half. Had an iPad accident, so I had to go backwards. Last year, 35 and 47. Playoffs, plus 126.

Is this the kind of frisky 42 and 40 Eastern Conference team that we grew up with as kids? You're goddamn right it is. That is exactly who this team is. You've personally rooted for seven teams like this. I rooted for this team last year. Fitting this kind of description. Halliburton played 56 games.

So you're telling me I need four more wins with a full season at Halliburton played 56 games. So you're telling me I need four more wins with a full season at Halliburton? It's an over. They were 28-28 with them. They were 22-18 to start the season.

Yeah, they were a frisky, weird team. They were frisky. They had like a five seed next to them and guys were like, man. And just when I was like, I like this team anyway.

I'm excited to see what Nembhard does and all this stuff. They go and they get Bruce Brown, who I've loved forever, who they overpaid him, but it's fine. It was a short deal. And then Toppin, who is just by rule has to haunt the Knicks fans at least five times next year.

But this is a weird roster. We like Matherin. He gets to the line. What did he have, like six free throws a game last year or something like that? He's like this hybrid offensive player who just gets to the rim. Now, I would say it's a little alarming that ESPN's depth chart only has four starters,

so I don't know if there's a rule change. Get IT on that. And you like Walker more than I do. I guess we'll see with Walker. I thought they took him a little high, but for what they need, they needed a banger stretch forward. I get how it could work because he's a big guy that can initiate a little bit more offense.

I don't know how much they're ever going to let him put it on the floor and create on his own, but Matherin is a real matchup problem for him. So I just look at the Halliburton numbers and go, odds are at his age, he's playing more than 56 games, getting me to 70 games. He's an all-NBA possibility guy. That's going to be four more wins. He's a top 25 guy in the league.

He's a world stage guy. We just went through this with Anthony Edwards. The other guy that impressed the shit out of everybody was Halliburton. Yeah. With good reason. This is a pretty easy over for me. There's something weird with their draft too. Um, Oh no,

they own all their picks. Okay. Um, yeah, easy over. And I think there's always one team when the conference is a little goofy like this, there's always one team that kind of jumps in and gets it. And this will be an interesting moment for Hal Burton because I think he was somebody then team USA experience, I think, won over a lot of people too. And I thought was one of the best guys they had. I thought him and Reeves, like those guys jumped off the TV in those games.

What's the best buddy heel trade for you, Rasul? LeBron. Cerruti wants him in Orlando. For who? Suggs? I don't know Cerruti's like Cerruti said if we get a shooter look out

it's the exact words coming out of the elevator it's coming in hot for the pod today but it does seem like the Buddy Hield situation's weird but I think they just want to play Matherin and want to see what they have with him and Halliburton together but they'll get one extra piece for him and want to see what they have with him and Halliburton together. But you know, they'll get one extra piece for him and McConnell,

the sons were going after him basically all summer. But I think they, if they want to roll the dice with numb, hard and try to trade McConnell, I think they would get something from it. I would love McConnell as a backup on my team. Yeah. I wouldn't want him.

I think a lot of people would. Yeah. Yeah. He and Tyus Jones love those guys. All right. So we're all in on Indiana over Detroit over under this is our

last team in the division their over under is 27 and a half this is just a weird team this is a top three weird holy mackerel what's going on here

with the the Cade Cunningham Jaden Ivey combo they have four centers Isaiah Stewart Bag, Jalen Dern, and Wiseman. They have the other Thompson twin. They have Monty Morris, who all of us really like. They have the artist formerly known as Joe Harris. They have Killian Hayes.

They re-signed Alec Burks and Kevin Bogdanovich. He actually had like a big Killian Hayes like I was like, whoa. Look at this. Like one last push. One final push. Like no, we had seven guys behind that river and they're coming for you. And I was

proud of Kevin for that one because I was like, shit, he's still trying. I think Hayes is like, isn't he still only like 22? I don't like 22 I don't care yeah you don't care well they paid a ton for Monte Williams

who coached his son's team that the last two years like rolled over in the biggest possible spots I just didn't understand that at all I guess the question for me

is no it's just simple like if you're sitting and you're an owner and you're like hey do we want to make Monte Williams the highest paid guy

to ever do it you'd probably be like I have a counter I think that's a no yeah good for him great guy everybody likes him this comes down to kade is kade a franchise player i believe he will be and i'm going over oh yeah i don't know why i just i needed i needed one of these teams down there in the 20s i needed needed to go over. Okay. See, I have other teams in that territory going over. So I think 27 wins, which is a 10-win improvement, is fine. And I'm fine with the under. This team was 17 and 65 last year.

So this over would be 10 wins higher. Now, Cade didn't play most of last year. And they also were totally happy to tank. They got killed by the lottery. Killed because they had 17 wins. Oof. Yeah. So we're totally happy to tank. They got killed by the lottery. Killed. Because they had 17 wins. Oof. Yeah.

They go in thinking Wemby. I think they left with the fifth pick. Do they need Wemby though with all their centers? I have a Thompson question for you. Sure. Is it possible they're just going to be

fucking like awesome? Like what are the, if you had to like rank the odds, like awesome, really good,, if you had to like, rank the odds, like, awesome, really good, better than you think, eh,

or oh no, which one would you go with? Man, they're so gifted physically and they're huge. There's been a lot of buzz about them, House. Right.

Both of them. And both of them are pretty good passers and Amen's shot may be broken. So that's the thing I think that holds it back. I'd say better than your thoughts, the best one there. But the way they get talked about, there's a lot of smart guys that seem to go,

hey, dude, they're going to be ridiculous. And I'm like, oh. Because it was hard for me to come to that conclusion with the stuff that I watched them play in last year. I'm going to change my pick. I went over for Detroit. All in. Yeah, I'm over on Detroit.

Oh, my God. See, this is why I win every year, because you guys get seduced by a team with four centers. Well, they were motivated. They really did try. They tried to get into the Wembley Stakes. And they have too many professional players on their team. There's one player all of us hold out hope for,

and it's a different player. It's Marvin Bagley III for Bill. It's Wiseman for me. I think I gave up for Marvin. And it's Jonte Porter for us. No, I like beef stew. Give me beef stew. I love Isaiah Stewart.

I was hoping the Celtics would get him. I'm looking at this roster. It's not, you know, if Cade is anything. The only reason I remember the beef stew thing is it was one of those many days where I was frustrated with Hoops hype, where I was on the seventh link to a big stew food drive that he was having.

And I was like, can we get to a fucking rumor here? It was like the sixth link in a row that he's coming out with some canned stew. You just need to buy Hoopsipe. Just take it over. Be like, there's a new sheriff in town.

We're back to rumors. I don't care that Oskar Krelenschkiewicz has been waived in Istanbul. The Celtics have high hopes for winning Gabriel. That should not be the top story

in Hoopside. I'm going under and I think you guys missed a crucial point with the Pistons. There's not a lot of bad teams. And at some point, we get to, there's like four teams

who just look at each other and go, oh, wow, we could get the first pick in the draft. Let's just start fucking with this team and shutting some guys down.

I also think Bogdanovich is a legitimate trade candidate. For sure. Especially if Thompson turns into anything initially. So I'm going under. All right, so to recap, for the Pacific, Suns 52 and a half, we all went under. Lakers 46 and a half, we all went over. Lakers, 46 and a half. We all went over.

Golden State, 47 and a half. I went over. You guys went under. We were zagging against each other a lot in this one. Sacramento, 44 and a half. All over. I was surprised by that. 45 and a half for the Clippers.

All under. Milwaukee, 53 and a half. House and I went under. Rosillo went over. Cavs, 50 and a half. Ros And I went under Rosillo went over calves 50 and a half Rosillo under house and I over bulls 37 and a half under, under, under Pacers 38 and a half over,

over, over. And then the Pistons 27, half I went under you guys went over. And that is part two of the pod. Part three will be the most fun one because all of our teams are involved, including House's Wizards. House texted me that he couldn't believe

the over-under was only 23 and a half and he already bet the over and I can't wait to talk about it. Part three produced by Steve Cerruti and Kyle Creighton and we'll see you for part three. I don't have feelings with him. On the wayside, I'm a bruised soul, I never want to say it. I don't have feelings with him. Must be 21 plus in president select states. I don't have to be. You can call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona.

Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-800-9WITHIT in Indiana. 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana. mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. 1-800-GAMBLER.NET in West Virginia, or 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts, or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York.