The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 2: The Pacific and Central Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Booker, Giannis, Haliburton, and AD

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

In Part 2 of a three-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House to run through NBA win totals for the Pacific and Central Divisions. (0:46) Suns (8:42) Kings (13:54) Warriors (20:56) Lakers (27:27) Clippers (34:56) Bucks (43:09) Cavaliers (51:27) Pacers (57:39) Bulls (1:05:29) Pistons Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ryen Russillo and Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, part two of the NBA Over-Unders pod, the annual extravaganza next. This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. You can now get almost anything you need for the season delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost? Well, you can't get a snowboard delivered, but you can get a charcuterie board. A hot sauna, that's a no, but a hot soup, definitely a yes. A fur coat, sorry, nope. But a gravy boat Definitely a yes. A fur coat? Sorry. Nope. But a gravy boat?

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All right, this is part two of the annual NBA Overrunners podcast with House and Rosilla. If you missed part one, well, we're doing part two, so that means part one's already up. Let's bring in Pearl Jam one more time. All right, it's part two. We are doing the Pacific Division to start. That is the division that has both LA teams in it. But also it's the Phoenix Science who have an over under.

Is that going up house? 47 and a half right now in Fandl. I see 47 and a half. Okay. They are plus 150 for the division, which to me is a bet. You don't know nobody. They are 13 to one to be the one seed, which I think is semi enticing as like an OKC backup bet.

And in general, new coach, coach Bud is in town. I think is semi enticing as like an OKC backup bet. And in general, new coach coach, but is in town. They added Tyus Jones. They're finally going to have a point card. I like Plumlee. I like Monty Morris. We're Sillo. I love this team for the over. Yeah.

I think the 47 and a half is is is beyond tasty and beyond enticing. I think this is a low to mid fifties wind team. Bud's going to have them shooting threes. Durant Booker coming off the Olympics. I was out last year. I'm in this year. When we last saw them. Hooked by Minnesota.

I know. Everybody laughing at them. Bradley Beal. It's funny. You want to look at like some misleading numbers. Look at Bradley Beal's like overall numbers and then his splits and you know, all this stuff. Look, I'm with you. I am really impressed with what they were able to do on the margins considering

they had no options to have Tias Jones as an option. You can have Booker on the ball later if you want to do that. Grace Allen was incredible. They kept Royce O'Neal. This Ryan Dunn thing is even weirder. Yeah, he's been a preseason... Is this going to be like a Phil Pantier situation? Or do we believe this is a deep cut from early Madness baseball, Joe?

I'm really excited about it. But look, there's no way... Here's why it's an over for me. They had the worst offense in the NBA in the fourth quarter and the worst net rating of 30 NBA teams. This team had the worst net rating in the fourth quarter. It makes no sense, there's no way that happens again. I think it's an over because even through all

of their nonsense, they won 49 games last year. It's a super over for me as well. I think that the Coach bud thing is the, you know, one of the, the, the quieter developments in the West and what that does to propelling this team. I think they're like going to be in that four seed, maybe even battling for the three seed.

I have them as a two seed in the, in the, in the, in the Western conference. I do. Wow. So that means you have them over Minnesota. I think it's never Minnesota. I have them right next to each other. And you have them over Dallas?

By the way, I like Vogel. And I think he's a good coach who won a title. I just think he was the wrong coach for that team. It was terrible timing too. They threw the whole effing team together. That team was never gonna be good on defense, right? You bring in Vogel, it's like, he's gonna bring in defensive, do it.

And it's like, you know what? This team's not gonna be great on defense. You know what they in Volgo, it's like, he's going to bring in defensive. It's like, you know what? This team's not going to be great on defense. You know what they're going to be really good at? Offense. And I think Bud is just going to, you can see it. He's like, shoot some fucking threes. Get those threes up. That's it.

Yeah. You're all good shooters and Bradley Beal, you know, if he can just play 60 games, he hasn't done that in five years. I don't even know if it matters with him. I'm serious. Yeah. He's big bonus. I'm saying it's exactly. But that's what that's the that's the range between 51 and 55 wins for me if he shows up. Right. Can I read you some bud stats? I love that people love bud again. Regular season bud. With all this talent. Well, I'm going to give you some stats. Career, 801 and 484, 60.4% winning percentage. He had five 50 win seasons, two of those were 60 plus.

Here are all the coaches that have 800 plus wins, 60% winning percentage. Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, Steve Kerr, Greg Popovich, Pat Riley, Jerry Sloan, and Coach Bud. That's the entire list. It's a good coach. The Milwaukee thing got super weird, and you could go back and you could watch those games,

and you could watch that Miami game, which I think blew your brain. You did. Blew my brain out. I think you just did a solo pod for like seven hours after that last Jimmy Butler game. I think I did an emergency pod. It's like, we're still at hour seven here

on the Rossello pod. I think I did an emergency pod for that game. I think the pod accidentally turned on you were just talking to yourself and we just somehow were recording it. Really good chance. That's also true. But yeah I just think Milwaukee got weird it was time for him to go. He seems, I like everything I've read about him. Everyone's like this guy's in great shape. He was kind of a mess in Milwaukee now he's now he's like refocused, needed the year off. But this is like a mad scientist team. This is a team that would be really fun to coach

or a nightmare to coach if you're the wrong kind of coach. See, that's where I think the Vogel part of it because it came together and these guys had all the answers so they weren't going to listen to Vogel. And it's like, actually you got embarrassed by Ant, the long two guys. So I think whoever the next coach was post Vogel is probably somebody they're going to respond to a little bit because I think they thought they had

the plan last year. Right we don't need yeah we just just roll the ball out. Vogel was if it were reversed who knows. Well I mean he has Nerkids trying threes I don't know if he's gonna actually shoot them there in the season but I hope they get off to a good start I do I hope they get off to a good start because I think the Durant stuff was heading towards Weird Town possibly this summer. But Phoenix, remember you and I were doing the pot around the draft, ESPN saying they wanted to trade him

and then I had to even talk to somebody that said, you can say right now on the pot with Bill tonight, like we're not trading Durant. And I was like, I hope you're not lying to me and they weren't. Nope. Yeah. Look, as you know, I completely over-aid

Olympic basketball at all times. But I think it was good for Durian Booker. That's just the patriot in you. I think it was good for Durian Booker that we had six dudes that in fucking nut crunch time that they trusted. And I thought it was a great experience for Booker. That's my Booker position.

All the Booker shit that I take. It's a huge win for him. Booker, Tatum and everything. There's a reason why I just stand up for this guy all the time. And Tias Jones, who I think the diehard league pass people, and I include the three of us, we really like that guy. And he was really good on Memphis and then house had him. That's all you could say. Still shot 40 over 41% from three on four times a game. He, the whole philosophy of we don't need a point guard, I've just, I will never believe that for the rest of my life. I think you need point guards. The Billy Miller of NBA point guards. Who's Billy

Miller? Oh, Billy Miller. Yeah. Our Billy Miller. Baseball Billy. Yeah. It's still amazing they got him. It's amazing. It's, cause it got him. It's amazing. It's, cause it seemed like. They had no outs and then it was okay, resign and pay too much for this guy. Where was everyone else? Like. Monty Morris, I mean. That's another one.

Yeah. They did a good job. New owner syndrome. Don't like your centers. New owner syndrome is back. Ishbia. It's fucking making moves, man. I'm in on this son's team. so we're all over 47 and a half.

My guess, we have like eight, nine days left. I think that keeps going up. I bet that lands when people watch what the Suns are doing, how many threes they're taking. They're going to be really hard to play. The thing that makes me nervous is Durant. He was in the 2007 draft. House and I were watching a game last night.

Remember the show Greg Oden and the stands?, Greg Odin just likes a like an old retired player and he was in the draft with Durant So it's just once you get into year 18 year 19. I never feel awesome. But of course I think His book are like a stealth stealth stealth MVP candidate like super duper long shot. I stealth MVP candidate, like super duper long shot. I don't know, like if they're going right, it probably means Durant is cooking again. I mean he was 52, 41, 86, and 70 games last year. I mean Durant, but then to watch what happened in Minnesota, you're like, okay, this isn't working out.

After that, they're gonna do a good match. They have odds for him too, 75 to one. You don't have to sell me on Booker. Booker, 100 to one. Nah. If they're a one or a two seed, they're at least gonna be in the conversation. They're 45 to one. You don't have to sell me on Booker. Booker, 100 to one. Nah. If they're a one or a two seed, they're at least gonna be in the conversation.

I just think those are crazy values for a team that I think can be the two seed. All right, next team's Sacramento. Their overs 44 and a half, which went down. I think it was 45 and a half. Many of them got 46 and a half. They're plus 240 for the division. They're minus 170 for the playoffs.

They were 46 and 36 last year. And what they did was they turned Harrison Barnes into Demar de Rosen. And they start Sabonis and Murray and DeRozan and Fox and maybe Ellis, Monk coming off the bench. Monk, Monk, Monk, Monk. You gonna get it down this year? Monk.

You gonna try it again? Monk. Trey Lyles is there. What do you think the origin of that is? You're gonna get it down this year fuck you know try it again mock Trey louse is there. What do you think the origin of that is? I just listen. I can't control my my I have weird ones I have a weird. That's that's a weird weird one. Yeah so This team I don't know why they were 48 and 34 two years ago in 46 36 last last year, when I did my Ringer 100 voting, I had them 19, 27, 46, 90, and 97. I had five of their guys in the top hundred, including two in the top 30.

They also have some trade bait, Herders 16.8. They have Lyles with Daniel. Yeah, if you want to ruin your entire team's chemistry. Carter, well, sorry. I should have given you a warning on that. But they have moves they can make to get one more guy. And I think I'm over. I think they're a top eight team. I like their team. I think they're gonna be hard to play. I'm an over, slight over, but I think the DeRozan thing raises their floor because Harrison Barnes would also be a first team

selection of did he play tonight? And be like, you just watched him play 38 minutes ago. It felt like he was getting a little worse too. So it makes sense for San Antonio, but when I run through it, I mean, they've got kind of a key on Ellis, like, he's a guy that's been playing for 38 minutes. And he's like, I'm gonna play for the first time. And I'm like, I'm gonna play 38 minutes. It felt like he was getting a little worse too. So it makes sense for San Antonio,

but when I run through it, I mean they've got kind of a Keyon Ellis like thing where, you know, they probably really liked his defense, which also made them feel like they could move on from Davion Mitchell, who they spent a lottery pick on, who like, let's face it, he's probably a rotational guard, never gonna be a starter for anybody that's pretty good. So, you know, DeRozan three years ago, the Chicago deal,

I thought, man, we'll see how that ages out. And it aged out beautifully for them. I just like where it puts their floor. They're going to try to run you up and down. They're not going to be able to defend anybody. Like who cares about the playoff projection for them and playing bigger teams? Like we saw against New Orleans last year, where it was just like one of those moments where you go, this is an awful matchup for him. Every time they play.

I just think DeRozan, you plugging him into those Barnes minutes and Fox and the rest of everybody else is young. There's a lot on Fox last year at the end of games too. Yeah. How's that's DeRozan. Yeah. That's just kind of fine. Right. Two place to go. How's really good league pass team. I can see you falling asleep in front of the couch in the East coast for many times. I need to see- Isaac Jones. The red mamba at all times.

Maryland guy, the red mamba, Kevin Porter. So if he's gonna miss- Not a lot of people predicting a comeback here. I don't know if you wanna do an investor relations call. Want me to call one in quick? It's a tiny bit of stock, I don't know. Kevin Herder investor relations call? Bracillo, you're actually compromised here. What do you do?

All right. Here's the deal. When you're on your boat in 20 years, you've sold all your comedy CDs, you're doing pretty good. You got a boat. Do you want to look at the guy's boat next to you and you want that guy's boat to be bigger or smaller?

Because if you get out of this Herder position now, you're going to be a fucking idiot. You're want to look at the guy's boat next to you and you want that guy's boat to be bigger or smaller? Because if you get out of this herder position now, you're gonna be a fucking tender, you're gonna be running groceries and shrimp and ice to that guy's boat, okay? If you want the guy next to you running the supplies to you, asking anything else I can do for you,

that's why you're staying in this herder position right now. You wanna get out like everybody else who's gonna be in the small boat, go ahead. Fucking grab some oars. Grab some oars. Learn to row. It's why you're staying in this her position right now. You want to get out like everybody else is going to be in the small boat. Go ahead. Fucking grab some mores. Grab some mores. It's a league that loves shooting. Yeah. Maybe you get in a sailing and I'm touching emergency sailing. You want something high powered generators the whole deal. Hold. I agree. To hold. To hurt or hold. We're doing it.

We all love shooting. I love guys who can make open threes. So you're over house? I'm over because, Trey Laos. I side by side the Pelicans and this team, and I like this team better than I like the Pelicans. I have the answers that I want to what this roster's gonna look like.

And also when you're plugging in to Rosen, like you wanna talk about something I've never even worried about. Right. Like, oh, okay, cool. Like he'll just talk about something I've never even worried about. Right. Like, oh, okay, cool. Like he'll just get along with everybody and he's better than the guys you're replacing. And also plays really well against good teams.

Every time he played the Celtics, I always felt like they had so many problems with him. And the Celtics were like, you would think the perfect type of team to defend him, but he always got shots at it. Like I have them as in that six, seven, eight range for seeds, maybe even getting a six if Memphis can't totally get their shit together.

So I probably have them six, but I think in that next batch of, once you get past OKC Phoenix, Minnesota, Dallas, Denver, and you go into that Memphis, Sacramento, Houston, Gold State, New Orleans, Lakers, that group, I think I like them the most. Sure. Also, really good home court. Like it matters. Yeah.

It's a team that will probably give a shit during the NBA Cup. I'm not positive everyone's going to care, but I think they will. I like this. Look at that. All right. We're overs for all of them. We're going gonna keep moving. Golden State Warriors.

I mean, one of the toughest over-unders on the board. Do we all like what they did this off-season, considering? 43 and a half is the over, so the Fandl didn't like it as much because they won 46 games last year. I like the over. You like the over. I liked it at 42 and a half, more than

43 and a half, because I think it's perfect number for this. Let me throw this at you. On January 1st, they were 15 and 17. It was something I was tracking for them in particular. From that point on, they went 39, excuse me, they were 15 and 17 on January 1st. They went 31 and 19 the last 15. They were eighth in net rating. And that's what Draymond playing 55 games. I like the depth. I like the multiple options that they have with these different mixes and matches that you're going to do. Yeah.

Um, I would hope that Draymond, I mean, he doesn't seem super like, he's never going to be regretful, he's like defiantly not regretful about any mistakes he'd make, but I don't know that he's gonna have the same kind of season like that. And then you just kind of plug Steph in here again. So I think when you look at that run over the last 50 games, that's what they talked themselves into.

And they- It's a pretty big sample size. Yeah, so I'm going over. One of the reasons I went over, and the over is 43 and a half, is because of the depth that he just mentioned. They go 12 deep. What's interesting is in that Ringer 100 exercise,

they only had two guys for me in the, I think two guys, Draymond and Curry. Pajemski and Curry. Well, and then Pajemski maybe has a chance to play himself in there. I couldn't quite put Kaminga in there. But when you think they're starting Draymond, Kaminga, Wiggins, Pajemski, Curry, they're bringing in slow mo off the bench.

Looney. Jackson Davis. Melton. Healed. Jackson Davis. Moody. Gary Payton, the second. I think you need to think this way in the regular season or the third.

Either one. I thought it was the second. I thought this really helped the Celtics last year. Depth, giving guys nights off and then having people come in who could actually like hold the fort. The Warriors are gonna be the best example of this. They're just deep. I think you need to be deep in 2024.

House, where do you stand? I agree with the idea of the depth. The depth doesn't really blow me away. A couple of guys have been in a couple of places, haven't really blow me away. Couple guys who've been at a couple places haven't really distinguished themselves. Everybody's more that, right? Buddy Hield, Wiggins. Everybody's waiting for Buddy Hield to really be that guy

that's knocking down 6'3 the game, whatever. What happened the last two years with Buddy Hield? Yeah, why couldn't he get off the base of the field? I like him in theory so much more than the basketball. Those Sixers games, we were like, dude. And he had the one after everybody was so frustrated that he didn't seem like he wanted to shoot. Do you think Buddy Hield's agent called the Sixers games we were like dude what he had to one after everybody was so frustrated that he didn't seem like I wanted to shoot Do you think buddy? He'lls agent called the Sixers or just was like yeah, I don't even need to call

The did the token call yeah, yeah, hey, it's Bob. Hey Darrell um Check it in. I know it wasn't a great season for buddy, but You know if you want to talk about a deal but you know if you want to talk about a deal. Golden State's an under for me because I don't think Steph's gonna play 74 games. It's just that simple. I mean I love Steph. I want to see him play as much basketball as possible. I hope he plays, but they have no margin for error if he doesn't play. None. There's no backup plan. No, they're screwed.

Kaminga bet bawling out. Congratulations. I mean. My big question with this team was, did they find a younger, deeper, happier version of themselves? Because I don't think last year, last two years were not exactly like super happy. And they had a lot of guns for hire and just weird kinds of. I don't know if I pick them against anybody in the playoffs.

Right, but all we care about is regular season. and just weird kinds of. I don't know if I pick them against anybody in the playoffs. Right, but all we care about is regular season. Their record is, they don't make the playoffs two of the last four years. Yeah. The bigger question to me is, is this just a trade machine team? They couldn't get a deal that they liked this summer.

They put together a lot of assets and they're just open for business, really starting Thanksgiving. Who wants what they have? Well, they have a bunch of picks. Okay. It would be Kaminga continuing to improve. And then he's in the deal with, here's all of our picks.

Yeah. And expiring contracts. And I'm not talking Zach Levine level. Obviously they weren't interested in Ingram, but if an actual star becomes available, they try the Paul George thing, but I just don't think there was ever a fit there. And I think there was a bunch of teams that tried on Lowry that were offering real things and then it didn't happen. But, uh, it would have to be somebody like,

and can we stop with the Steph LeBron stuff that they're going to play together at some point that doesn't really make sense. It was fun. We just watched it. It was the Olympics. They're not playing together. It was cool. Steph got hoes was the Olympics. They're not playing together professionally. Yeah, we played six games. It was cool. Steph got hoes in the MVP. Maybe, maybe? Warriors playoffs, minus 102.

No. Plus 120 is the no. Playing game is plus 140, Rosilla. This team looks very playin' as a team. I hate the playin' game because it keeps getting rid of Steph. Right. It's's stupid. You know, like, oh, great.

10 playoff teams. Yeah. No. Expand the team, the playoffs to 10. So that the Warriors can get in. I'm trying to think now, if I look at it again, um, Golden State wouldn't even have been in the playoffs last year. Okay.

But so I think it was, was it 22 when I was at home and I went, cool. Now Steph's not in the playoffs. Awesome. Yeah. I think it was, was it 22 when I was at home and I went, cool. Now Steph's not in the playoffs. Awesome. Yeah. I think it was 22. That was the Lakers game. Over for me over for Rosillo under for house under 43 and a half for me. Absolutely.

And that leads us to the Los Angeles Lakers right after this break. The NBA is back and Fandl is America's number one sportsbook. And they want you to catch up on all the action because right now Fandl is giving everyone three months of NBA league pass. All you have to do to catch every tip off and buzzer beater is place any $5 bet on the NBA and then you get a pass. And you can see if Wim Benyama is going to put up a 30, 20, 10 and 10.

You can see if Luca is going to go for 75 points. You can watch my favorite team, the Boston Celtics, the defending champions of the National Basketball Association. We're talking about all the storylines on this three part overrunner podcast, but next time you get a hunch on who's going to win or how many points a player will score, you can watch your picks come to life. Live. Just visit fandule.com slash BS to get three months of NBA league pass courtesy of FanDuel.

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This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. You can now get almost anything you need for the season delivered with Uber Eats. What do I mean by almost? Well, you can't get a snowboard delivered, but you can get a charcuterie board. A hot sauna, that's a no, but a hot soup, definitely a yes. A fur coat, sorry, nope. But a gravy boat, happily yes. Baby kittens, unfortunately not, but knitted mittens,? Definitely a yes. A fur coat? Sorry. Nope. But a gravy boat? Happily, yes. Baby kittens?

Unfortunately not, but knitted mittens. That is a yes. Uber Eats can definitely get you that. So whatever you look for this season, know that you can get almost, almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Download the Uber Eats app today to order now. Alcohol in select markets. Product availability may vary by region. See app today to order now alcohol in select markets. Product availability may vary by region.

See app for details. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this. It's game day.

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With all the great beer tastes we like, 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller lights today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers of Los Angeles. 42 and a half is the over under. They're plus 440 for the division. Minus 110 for the playoffs, plus 135 for the play-in. They added JJ Reddick as a new coach. They added Dalton Connect. They lost Nwitty.

They lost Prince. It's pretty much the same team except the coach changed. That's somebody else. Who do you got? Well, Coloco. Coloco? Yeah, that Arizona kid, big guy. I liked him a couple years ago. Throwing Coloco.

So JJ wants to shoot more threes. Will this work? They were incredibly lucky last year. Um, so they're 47 and 35. They were expected 42 and 40. So they played over that. This is a super easy one for me. Incredible. Anthony Davis year back on the map.

LeBron makes it through all the way healthy. The fact that they got that from those two guys, they were they played over that. This is a super easy one for me. Incredible. Anthony Davis here back on the map. LeBron makes it through all the way healthy. The fact that they got that from those two guys and they still are just kind of an out of the pot. LeBron had his best shooting year probably ever from three. Incredible. I'm not banking on that again. So it's an under. It's easy. House. It's so effing low. 42 and a half is so goddamn low. But if one of the two guys goes down, got it. 71 for LeBron last year, 76 for Anthony Davis, 76 games for Anthony Davis last year.

L um, Redick does want Davis to be shooting more threes. Does that help? Does that keep him on the court? If Anthony Davis is shooting threes, there were eighth and three point percentage last year, but they only took 31 threes a game. Yeah. So on paper you're like, well, shoot more. But so they're playing Davis who shot, I think, 27% from three last year, Vanderbilt who can't shoot, Cameradish who can't shoot, Wood who can't shoot, and Gabe Vincent who only really had one decent three point shooting here. And then Lebron was career high. And then Russell was like, cool, can I shoot more threes?

That's where you're, so I can shoot eight? That sounds great. Could I be like Steph? I don't think it's gonna work. And I just think it's a team that doesn't make sense to me. The 33 games that Russell, Reeves, Rui, LeBron, and AD were the starting five, they went 23 and 10. that Russell Reeves, Rui LeBron and AD were the starting five, they went 23 and 10. So that's your case for this team.

And God, 42 and a half is so goddamn low. So you're going over them. The AD three point thing, I don't know if that's kind of the Royal Jelly Deal or the old Sean Marion thing with D'Antoni where D'Antoni would just be like, as soon as you catch it, let it fly. It actually just made Marion a better shooter because it was something,

it was never a bad idea for him to shoot. So I don't know if that's, I have a hard time believing it's going to be that freewheeling as the seven seconds are left, Phoenix Suns here. But Davis hasn't been able to hit it from the outside now since New Orleans. There's only one case for the over for me because I think this, I actually think this team's going to be in the mid to high thirties. I just don't think, especially with how deep the West is LeBron, his age, the fact that he's, you know, he's going to miss 25, 26 games, cause that's just

what's been happening in the last few years. Except for not last year, but Davis getting, Davis getting, he's going to be 40. I don't, I mean, did he look slow to you in the Olympics? If he plays that, well, it was six games in the Olympics. The games were 40 minutes. That's the thing, and I even fell for it during the Olympics. Like, it was a little bit of fool's gold where you had to play six Olympic games,

and those guys hadn't played basketball in 10 months, and they were just working on their bodies in shape. And then it was this brief sprint. This is an 82-game season in a really good league that's as deep as it's ever been. I think it's a lot to ask to run everything through Lebron at his age at this point. I went over on them the last two years. I don't see it this year. They barely squeaked that over last year. It was a miracle. So the only case for it, Rusilo, is that they don't have their pick. Their first round pick goes to New Orleans.

They have no incentive to be like, oh, LeBron's hurt, let's hang. I'm not even thinking about that, though. Yeah, but I'm just saying, like, they have to actually compete the whole year. There's no reason not to. It's simply you're not getting the same AD LeBron participation. That's all it is. Totally fine. I'll go under. I'm under. I thought you were going over. 42 or 40. It's such a low number. That's all it is. Totally fine. I'll go under. I'm under. I thought you were going over.

It's such a low number. It's absurd. But how do you forecast? Somebody's got to be bad in the West. 147 games again out of those two guys. If they were in the East, would they be an eight seed for you guys? Uh, yeah. I think so. Against like Atlanta, Miami? I still don't think they...

I would have Miami over them in the East. Oh God, that's disrespectful. That's very disrespectful. Alright, we'll talk that's very disrespectful Alright, we're all going under Russel is this is Zach Levine panic trade waiting to happen? 43 million this year Ron's always like them So so yes, I think it's gonna be really aggressive like the passive aggressive. It's gonna be super passive aggressive

LeBron if he's putting it together and you know, there are a few games out of wherever they are and they own their picks and people thought that was going to happen this summer. I just don't understand why you'd be, if LeBron were 30, I'd be giving into him. I'd do whatever he wants. I'd draft his kid, but I don't understand the purpose of like, let's do whatever this guy wants at 40 years old, even though he's pushed the boundaries of what we think is possible.

You know, they're going to hit a dangerous spot, the Laker fans, whatever this guy wants at 40 years old, even though he's pushed the boundaries of what we think is possible. They're gonna hit a dangerous spot, the Laker fans, because you can't really mortgage anything else. We've already seen that the ceiling of this team is what it is. The teams around them are getting better. I don't know, I don't know if it's an ESPN. I don't understand, like I'll see a clip pop out like they'd be like,

so-and-so doesn't like their championship. And I'm like, why are you guys, what? Yeah, there's- No one's even thinking about that anymore. There's a separate league with OKC in Minnesota, like their championship and I'm like, why are you guys? What? Yeah, there's no one's even thinking There's a separate league with okay see in Minnesota and Dallas and the Celtics and the Knicks like this team would have no chance No, no, yeah This is a no serious person talks about the Lakers in it like with a playoff run boy ESPN Well, it's probably leading NBA today today well ESPN

Let you know a guy no longer works for them hijacked the first game of the goddamn NBA Finals with Laker news about the head coach that never was gonna effing land there but great great job so yeah that's definitely the let our perspective be colored by ESPN's editorial decisions House is really letting them have it. Were you in the PA program in the late 90s? I was so upset. It was the NBA finals that are doing a car wash of like,

well, we're really going to put the Connecticut coach to the test to be the potential coach of the Lakers. Get the F out of here. Jesus. I just want to watch the finals. I want to watch good teams play. Well, the Lakers won't be one of them. And neither will be this next team, the Los Angeles Clippers.

Oh. Over 37 and a half. I feel like that's dropped. I think that was higher before Kawhi was like. It was 38 and a half, it was. Kawhi was like, yeah, I don't know. You ready to open tonight? I don't know.

When does it start again? October 23rd, you're saying? He was like trying to make plans with me. Just like, oh, that's this year we're doing that. Yeah. Like, wasn't there a lockout? Yeah, we're having dinner after we are. 12 to 1 for the division plus 235 to make the playoffs plus 185 for the plan. And last year there were 51 and 31. They lost Paul George, they lost Plumlee, they added Derek Jones, Chris Dunn, Nick Batum.

Whew. Can you imagine having season tickets for these guys? It looks like an incredible stadium, and I think getting to watch the West, you go to that stadium. I'm back. I'm back to why I got the tickets in the first place. It's going to be going for the other teams. But the stadium is in town.

Let's go. The stadium all by itself. I think the way it looks in the reports so far, it seems like you've already gone. My, uh, the guy I shared tickets with went yesterday and was sending me videos. I was like, that looks fucking amazing. You haven't been yet. I haven't been. Can't wait.

Are you going tomorrow night or I'm not Thursday. No Why you want to go? Into it. I'm tempted. I should go Thing tell me cuz I have to leave now to get there in time Yeah, wait the same 26 hours I've been boycotting London football so I'm Yeah, I like it. All right, here's the season ticket package other than the arena. An aging high-use James Harden,

probably my least favorite player to watch in person of all the good players. I don't know that there's a player more excited about this upcoming season. He's like, Kawhi, take your time. Limping Kawhi, a bunch of role guys, and they have no first round pick, because they, okay, so they get to swap.

They don't control the draft for the next five years? Yeah. Wow. It's brutal. It's so bad. It's brutal. But the stadium is going to be amazing. And they basically chose James Harden over Paul George, which is just, I thought the hard number was a little high and I still can't believe they didn't do a fourth year of Paul George, but I could also see them being entirely over this thing that has not worked out, even though at the time, if you're trading all of this for Paul George also guarantees you getting Kawhi

Leonard and free agency, you do it. You just do it. Like, I don't think it's, we said at the time, you gotta do it. Anyone that's going like you shouldn't have done it after the fact. Like, just think you gave all that up to then get Paul George and then to have all of this stuff happen. But the Kawhi part of it, it hasn't been right since Toronto. And it's really unfortunate because it looked like they finally executed the plan you hope to be able to do like one time.

They sent Kawhi home from the Olympic team. They were like, let's make up an excuse. You can't be in the team. You can't be in the team. You're not healthy. And then the preseason started and it's like, still not healthy. But he's gonna be ready for opening night.

And then it's like, no, he's actually not gonna be ready opening night either. Worst season tickets for 2024 or 25? Draft? Is what, we don't need to do a draft because there's only five teams. But who do you have first? Who would you want to have season tickets for the least?

This is the easiest question. Yeah, it's obviously Washington. The Wizards are winning Yama in this draft. I had them as well. Yeah. Is Brooklyn two? Well, you were just there. There's good pizza places there, right?

Really good food. So you got it. Feeny Pizza. No, I don't think Brooklyn's two. Plus, Ben Simmons. Roster? Brooklyn's two. I'm just saying, season tickets, I don't think Brooklyn's to okay Ben sir roster I'm just saying season tickets. I have to go to the stadium. I have to see this team for the next six months I'm going for the other team. They can be Portland. I think it's Charlotte. Oh, that's a great. I kind of like Charlotte Oh, we're gonna have a fun conversation. I

Wouldn't mind going to see sure you can't say season tickets and then go but there's a lot of golf in the area Like it's about the basketball saying I'm going to the game. Do I like you can't say season tickets and then go, but there's a lot of golf in the area. Like it's about the basketball. I'm not talking about that. I'm saying I'm going to the game. Do I like watching the players in the court? So Brooklyn, you want it, the pizza's so good that you're gonna watch 41 of those games? I had Brooklyn second.

Okay, we have Brooklyn second. We're on the same page. I have the Clippers third. I'd rather see Chicago than the Clippers. They're like, Josh Giddy, Kobe White. You do wanna see Kobe White. But zealous. I think Toronto needs to be mentioned.

Oh. Wow. Over Portland? He went right there. I have a lot invested emotionally in Portland. Okay. So if I were there rooting on my guys. So you'd have Toronto 4th?

It's freezing. Yeah, that's a good point. All right, Toronto 4th. Like, oh cool, quickly took 27 shots. Scotty Barnes's crunch time numbers are getting better. I love Scotty Barnes. Apologies to Jay Skeets. So, Washington, Brooklyn, Clippers, Toronto, Chicago, Portland would be our bottom six.

The point is that Clippers are in the top three. They are. But you're going for the other teams again. That could be honorable mention as well. And just personally, he might be a nice guy, James Harden. Might be a sweetheart of a guy. Might be a great friend. People love him. Good family guy.

Great rigger content. I'm sure he's a great teammate. He has. I just don't like watching him play basketball and we've been watching him now for almost two decades. And the fact that this offense is now gonna revolve around the heliocentric shit. Fourth and MVP? But he's 35 years old.

It sounds horrible. I actually am. It sounds horrible. I'm excited about it. He just made a statement where he was like, everybody said I couldn't do it, but look what Luca just did. Like as if Luca. I saw that.

Yeah. It was like somehow Luca. Got an oh no from him. And that meant because Luca made it to the NBA finals, Harden was always right. It reminded me of when part of my take brought in Skip Bayless and Skip complimented himself three times within 45 seconds.

He thought he was actually complimenting them, but it was like, you guys are the next. Well, him and Stephen A created that show. They created two guys talking to each other. It was fucking unheard of. Nobody had thought about that before. No, it was unbelievable. Under, and it's a lock for me, the Clippers 37 and a half.

I think they're gonna be awful. What do you have, House? It's an under. I'm not sure whether that's a lock, but it's an easy under. Under, under, under, what do you have? Under, there's no way I'm touching that over. That's a healthy number, you know what I mean? I mean, I understand that Vegas has already baked in

all the different variables here, but. There's a funny Ty Lue thing too, where people go, well Ty Lue, I mean, he's an amazing coach. Tai Lu is 3'12 and 2'17 as a coach. He's a coach way less than people remember. He went 0-6 for the 2019 Cavs and got fired. The 22 team went 42-40. Like, if you don't have the roster, you don't have the roster.

You can't be like, oh, Tai Lu will make them good. It's like, all right, if he makes them good. It's like art if you make some good They'll be 41 and 41 put that miracle the blue line So we're going under for all those so I had for my playoff teams okc phoenix, Minnesota Dallas Denver and Memphis slash Sacramento is the top six just for the record. So we're gonna move to the east and We're gonna do the central is the second part of record. So we're gonna move to the east, and we're gonna do the central, is the second part of this podcast. We're gonna do it right after this break.

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Brian and James conversation. I've never been prouder of the three of us. The Milwaukee Bucks are our first team in the central. They're over under 15 and a half. They're minus 105 for the division. Speaking of nepotism. They are 18 and one, best record. Plus a 50 for the one seed.

And what they did this off season house, they added seven, eight, nine guys. They added Prince and right and Trent, who I think is actually going to start for them. They're a little deeper. My take is they're too old, but I'll let you, I'll give you the four and then I'll weigh in after. What's your take on the bucks? Yeah, it's an under for me. I think they are just running it back. Uh, Gary Trent's already hurt.

Middleton, um, is hurt. There's no, we're in the, the, the, the Middleton when is he due back? You know, how effective is he going to be conversation already? And, um, you know, Dame, it all really boils down to Dame, and he was kind of there for every other game. Every other game, Dame. He's a once, you turn it into, we talked about this on the pod last year when you become like a once a week I'm really good guy

in the NBA, and they usually happen to do mid 30s. You're not talking total games, you're talking output. No, I'm just saying. Because you played 70 games. No, no, no, no, I'm saying once a week he puts up 36 and he looks really good. And then there's that other game when he's like six for 19. Yeah, that.

Yeah, he was in a better spot because he could just put up a million shots and never had any expectation. And I mean, it's cool that he wanted to go somewhere else, but Portland, it was actually safer for him as opposed to some of the limitations. Like there's still, when you talk about just pure shot making,

he's on a very short list of guys, even at this age in the NBA, where I think you feel like that fire power is what you want in the playoffs. But the age on this man is starting to get scary. And a lot of these draft picks, apparently it's not like they were drafting super high, but I don't know which ones I feel good about. Lopez, 36 season 17, Middleton, 33 season Lopez, 36, season 17. Middleton, 33, season 13. Dame, 34, season 13.

Giannis, 30, season 12. Portis, 30, season 10. Wright is 32, season 10. And Coniton's 31, season 10. I was trying to think of other old teams that did well. And my mind drifted back to that Celtics run in 2012. Basically that 2010 to 2012 wrench where the team got old. Pierce was at the tail end of being peak Pierce, but Garnett had the knee surgery, wasn't the same.

Ray Allen was moving to a different point in his career and it was just hard for them to get it done during the regular season. It was that one year they were like 25 and 25. Then they were able to flip the switch in the playoffs. 2010 they made the finals. 2012 they came close to making the finals. Feels like that's more of a buck season to me, but I think the league sees it. Like they left Giannis off on Christmas. I think because they didn't think they were one of the best 12 teams in the league. So, um.

That seems ridiculous though, because I mean, Giannis is the main, like I felt like even in the end of last year and going into the playoffs, I mean he gets hurt at the very end. He misses the entire playoffs. Lillard's hurt. He only plays four of this. You were thinking MVP for him at one point. Yeah.

I was, I still think I voted him second. Yeah, did I vote him second? I think I did. But they were 49 and 33 last year and he played the whole season. Right, I don't want to be disrespectful of him but when I went through and looked at all of this stuff, I think of the top 10 guys in their two deep there's only one guy in his 20s. Yeah so I Was thinking about If I'm building a team that I want to at least succeed during the regular season forget the playoffs I want to be able to guard point guards and I want to be able to guard swings like the Tatum types

This team can't really do either Because the Middleton has not been the same since that finals run. And he's, it just seems like his knees are, he's at a different point in his career. Now he's been a minus or a zero on defense. Really for two years. His turnover rate is up, his free throw rate is down. So he just, when you're looking for aging numbers, even if he can get it going, like on a certain night, but there'll be numbers going, okay, he's not grabbing as many rebounds, he's not getting to the free throw line as much.

It's not the same guy. Just stuff you would expect an older player to be like, I don't want to do all of these things. But defensively, the way they match up against Boston on the wings, that's why when we start talking about the rest of the East and Boston, there's some teams where I go, I don't think you have an answer for what Boston has, where there's one team in particular where at least I can understand your

approach and who you would throw at some of these dudes. an answer for what Boston has, where there's one team in particular where at least I can understand your approach and who you would throw at some of these dudes. He's played 88 games the last two years too, combined. Dame D- defender, F+, F, or an F-, what would you go with? You want to know why I had so bad is because when the sideline person starts talking about the person's bad defensive reputation and why he's actually a lot better than people realize, that's immediately enough.

I always enjoy that, yeah. He tries harder at that end than he gets credit for. No, Doc says a lot of people think that Luke Cornett's quicker. So, what if this goes badly, House? What if they're 24 and 26 after 50 games? What is he honest? I'm just, I don't think so.

You're, you're, you're trying to speak into existence. This idea of Yannis. I'm not trying to speak anything into existence. I just think that guy is crazy competitive. He's been super loyal along the way. He has. He has like tried to drag the organization I think he cares about titles man. I don't think he wants to be on a shit team that can't guard anybody

Well, he's on one. I know that's what he's on right now So we'll see. So the best case scenario would be the 2011 maps. The most important ring in the last 10 years? Yanis? As far as like the conversation around the person being fair or unfair imagine how different the conversation around Yanis. Well I guess Lebron won again in 2020 I was gonna say that 2016

helped out Lebron and Kyrie the combo. Kyrie's career is completely different if they don't win game 7 right? Yeah. We're not even I think that game 7 result almost is misleading. Yeah. For him, not LeBron.

I don't know where Giannis could go though when we talk about, well, he's gonna ask out. All right, pick a team. Is he gonna be Brooklyn, or is he gonna go to Miami? You're really the only one talking about him asking out. I don't think he's gonna ask out. I think he's a top four player in the league, and I think his situation is screwed.

He is, if it falls apart, I think it's gonna be, the old line that I've used all the time is like, it's usually not the international guys because it's not. It's the American guys that ask out. I mean, eventually there's going to be the international guys. It almost fell apart last year, just FYI. Like there was. But Finozis is not on the team.

Well, he got hurt though. Him and Gigi Jackson, they ran into each other. Yeah, but he's not's not on he's a free agent oh he's literally not on the yeah let me double check it but I'm pretty sure it did almost fall apart last year they fired the coach so if Miami just signed the NASA's telling you everybody needs to be on the NASA's alert watch the NASA's alert make sure you know social make sure he's not on my asses alert Miami sign him that would be the most Miami thing ever, wouldn't it?

Well, dude, the Lakers had the other one, and then as soon as I think Giannis signed his extension, they're like, cut him. So you're under, Rosillo? I'm under. House is under? I wanna still stay respectful of Giannis. Me too.

But by the way, we all went under on, or I went over on Jokic, but on Denver you went under. It's a same situation. I like Denver's team a lot more than Milwaukee's team. I do not. I don't like that. You like Milwaukee's one through nine better than Denver's. I don't think they're going to be able to guard

anybody who can get to the basket. Yannis is going to have to guard everybody in the other team at all times. And by the way, Lopez might just hit a different point in his career one of these years, right? He's been in the league forever. to get to the basket. Giannis is going to have to guard everybody and the other team at all times. And by the way, Lopez might just hit a different point in his career one of these years, right? He's been in the league forever. Could be this year.

Could be this year. He's on the trade block. Here's a team I'm guessing that all of us, like the Cleveland Cavaliers, they're over under 48 and a half. I think there's been some action on that. I want to say that was a little lower. They're plus 240 for the division,

which I would encourage as a bet. For people out there, they're 11 to one for a one seed, which is an interesting hedge against the Celtics. If you think weird Celtic shit's going to happen, new coach Kenny Atkinson. And more importantly, uh, they brought everyone back. So new coach, healthy Garland, Mitchell settled that situation settled. They took care of Mobley. Why isn't this a 50 plus win team house?

I have no idea. I think people are sleeping on. I don't understand, like how is this team that goes 52 and 30? The aspect of this especially that is gonna be eye opening is Kenny Atkinson. I think he's gonna be incredible with these guys. We loved him in Brooklyn and then Durant and Kyrie showed up and neither of them played

that year and somehow they got bounced anyway. No, they signed there because of the culture. Yeah. Remember? And then they bounced him. That was my favorite. It was the Joe Zye culture. They've done a really good job here with Din Whitty and Angelo Russell and developed these

guys. It's a good culture. Top Ringer 100, I had Mitchell 13 and then I had the Garland Mowby Jared Allen 45 47 51 so for top 50 for top 51 that That speaks to the 50 plus win thing and then you know they signed Allen to a really good contract extension that if Mowby If it's starting to look like maybe he could play Center Allen becomes a really fun trade piece for them, but I don't think they're gonna do it that F. Mobley, if it's starting to look like maybe he could play center, Allen becomes a really fun trade piece for them, but I don't think they're gonna do

it. To me this is a conference winner, I'm not a conference winner, a division winner. I like the plus 240, I love the over, it's a lock for me, Rossello. What do you got? Couldn't agree more. Totally aligned on this. I just think when you look at all of those guys together, I would expect it to go over. Their offense is okay, their defense has been terrific now for two seasons statistically. They shoot it okay enough. Remember they went 17 and one last year.

Garland missed 25 games. I think the injuries were kind of fluky with him. And whatever you want to say about the Mitchell overlap thing, when they get to the playoffs with those four guys, I'm no longer into it anymore. The spacing isn't good enough. The Mobley Allen thing is redundant. But that's not what we're talking about.

We're talking about, like, just Mitchell has these stretches during the season where he looks absolutely unstoppable, which is, even with his imperfections, why so many teams would have gladly taken him. They end up re-signing basically all these guys. He looks absolutely unstoppable, which is even with his imperfections, why so many teams would have gladly taken them. They ended up resigning basically all these guys. So all the specular, like it should just be a happier team. Um, I think there was doubt with Bickerstaff too, that led into some

of the problems they were having. So I'm, I'd expect them to be a 50 win team in the East, but the playoff thing is a completely different conversation. Totally agree. And the math is, is kind of crazy. All of their most important guys missed around 20 games last season. Every one of them. The four most important guys. So we were talking... And they won 48!

So I think my three favorite overs are OKC, Phoenix, and Cleveland. Just the three I feel the best about. And you know, we've hit the super boost. We've hit three years in a row. I think the Fandol super boost So there's there's an easier one. That's okc 55 plus wins Phoenix 45 plus and Cleveland 45 plus and That's like a little under two to one that would be the safe one There's one where we could do OKC 60 plus, Phoenix 45 plus, Cleveland 45 plus. That's a little over four to one. There's a Mac Daddy one, OKC 60 plus, Phoenix 50 plus, Cleveland 45 plus, plus 713. Or you could throw Cleveland 50 plus

and go get it to like 10 to one. But I'm- like I like the way it's going to be one of those 60 and pull it down just because 60 is such rarefied air. Even though I believe in I mean not Cleveland. So we can do the OKC 55, Phoenix 45, Cleveland 45 around 2 to 1 and get them to boost it. I would be OK with OKC 55, Cleveland 50, Phoenix 50. That that's the way I would be okay with okay see 55 Cleveland 50 Phoenix 50 that that's the way I would do it That's what you think I'd like both those teams at 50 well if I like all three of them, you know You can't What was Phoenix 49 and a half in our exercise? No, it's 47 and a half Yeah, so you're gonna get north of 50. Yeah, Just at 50, right? 50, 50 caches.

Yeah, but you can get super conservative and do anyway. They have Fandl has a bunch of NBA futures, profit boost token. They can do, we're going to do a page. We're going to do a super boost. So keep an eye on all that stuff because they are going to have a Bill Simmons NBA futures profit boost tied to this podcast going live Friday, October 18th. Three Futures that will be eligible for the boost. So we'll figure that out.

But it's gonna be, I think those are the three teams, right? OKC, Cleveland, Phoenix, we like those three or is there another one you would get excited about? No, because I think the payout on it. Yeah, okay. Right, I mean, look, Phoenix, even if we can all sit here saying, hey, it's gonna be over, it's gonna be better,

they're gonna understand, they're gonna point guard a new coach and all these different things, like, they get hurt all the time. Right, so 45 is safer than 50. Uh-oh. Okay. Investor conference? It's an investor relations call.

It's a double call. I'm so confused. Two names? Two stocks. Darius Garland stock. Where are we sitting? Broke his jaw last year. I made so much on it early.

You sold? I died, it was just ridiculous. The profit was staring me in the eye. So you jumped out. No, I didn't get out, but I took some profits. Took some off the table. Took some off. Took some off the table.

It's fine, smart. If you think it's at a high, but I took some profits. Took some off the table. It's fine. It's smart. If you think it's at a high, you take a little off. You thought he stunk. How dare you? Broke his jaw last year. I thought he was a mess. I thought he seemed small. I got talked into it.

He does disappear sometimes. I'd like to recommend... Can I make a recommendation on the call? He does disappear sometimes. I'd like to recommend... It's fine. I'm not telling you he's... Can I make a recommendation on the call? Yeah, yeah. I'd like to go back in and buy a little more when it's down. Oh! Yeah. Like when Spotify was down to like 75, it's like, yeah.

When Netflix dropped to 250. Was that after the Markle pod? That was a good one. I'd like to go back in and buy more Garland. I think you had a fucked up year last year. That was a good one. I'd like to go back in and buy more Garland. I think he had a fucked up year last year. You've broken jaw and then you have to play basketball. These dips aren't going to buy themselves, Bill.

All right. Let's go to Evan Mobley. How are we feeling? He got a giant contract. I loved him when Alan wasn't playing. So is that the answer? That's the reason to buy more stock because ultimately Jared Allen's probably not going to be on this team and Evan Mobley will be the. They're a fucked up team that I like. That's one reason. But what if Mobley and Allen can play together?

What if Kenny Atkinson encourages, what if Evan Mobley has been putting up a thousand threes a morning? Every morning. And we'll know in the first week if he's looking super comfortable. Go ahead guys. Ah boy. Are you serious?

Like Mobley's all of a sudden just gonna be draining threes. 23 years old. There needed to be some real tangible improvement on the ball skills with him. To round him out and being like the player we could hope that he would be. It feels like those that's not happening. But I still like what I saw in the Boston series when Alan wasn't out there. So you sold your stock? I don't have the same price target on it that we

did three years ago. My price target was too high. Those guys are incredible. You know, after the stock goes down 30% and be like, you know, it's over fired. It's a tiny bit low. You know, after the stock goes down 30%, it'd be like, you know, us over here, it's so-and-so investments that we've changed our price target. Like after you lost me 30% of my position. Are you locking down Cleveland over? Yes, it's a lock. 48 and a half.

I have it as a lock as well. Absolutely, not even close. No hesitation or reservation. Rosilla? I don't think you've locked anything yet. We'll do it at the end of that. End of part three, we'll do it. Okay.

Next team, Indiana Pacers. 47 and a half is the number. They won 47 games last year. They made the conference finals. Why wouldn't they be better? Basically brought back the same team. Including Siakam. Yeah, that's not the same team. There for the full year, but the same team we saw in the playoffs

Here's my question. We're so well Are we sure this isn't the? Everything went great for this team last year team Everything went awesome. We're not sure you do the Atlanta Hawks basically like the fluke e conference finals run Yeah, it's great Alice maybe Took some people by surprise for six weeks. Atlanta is the best example of it because Atlanta talked themselves into thinking that they were in that neighborhood. Portland had one of those against Golden State where they got destroyed by them. Dallas and 22 maybe with Golden State a little bit because it's not the same team,

but as far as having Luka, so that one's not as flukey as those other two. I understand your point. All the Knicks at the end of it, like who's left? They beat Milwaukee without Giannis. They beat the falling apart Knicks. Got swept by the South X, but the games were a little closer than a sweep. The first game, they gave game one away. They actively, it's the single thing that I hold against Halliburton more than anything else.

They blew two of those games like epic fashion. Epic. So it's... 41 games of Siakam though. Only 41 games. I thought this was the single hardest over under. Oh, so surprised. I changed my mind on it a hundred times.

I'm like the tiniest of tiny unders. I think they go 47 and 35. I couldn't get high. I couldn't get into the 48, 49, 50 range because I just think a lot of things went right for them last year. So here's why I would distinguish this team from some of those other teams that went on playoff runs and then we didn't really see them being able to hold it up. Nemhard was an effing revelation in the playoffs. And I don't think he's a flash in the pan. I think that's, that's sustainable. I think that dude can be counted on.

Um, when, when you see that level of execution, that efficiency offensively, that's not, uh, you know, an accident and then Matherin didn't play, Matherin wasn't part of that team that went on on that run and I think he's good So I think they're deep though The thing they have to do is play some goddamn defense and it's on Rick Carlisle in this offseason To figure out how they're going to play and and siakam should help with that should all they need to be is like middle of The road defensively they need to not be bottom five defensively they can still play at the pace they play at and that pace is is effing badass they asked Boston who do you fear in these playoffs are like Indiana because they play so such a unique style there are super hard matchup I'm on the over for this team. I can't really fight any of that. What do you have for Silo?

I had the under because McDermott's no longer signed. What? And I went back to the over because I got old friend James Wiseman. There he is. On the center rotation. There he is. So that's an over for me.

There he is. He's only 24. He's just scratching the surface. It's like when Darko's just scratching the surface. It's like when Darko ended up on. Orlando. You know, like, ah, Memphis is tapping into something here.

Orlando gave up a lottery pick for him. I don't feel. I think that was the Rodney Stuckey pick. I don't. I just thought this was super hard. So I'm against you guys in this one. One thing on Halliburton, I'm glad House brought them up. I was thinking, they don't do the OMBA the same way,

where we don't have to pick two guards, even though I still do it, because I like to stay a little traditional. But I was thinking about how hard the OMBA crop is gonna be this year, just on paper. Because Luca counts as a guard, SGA, Jalen Brunson, Curry, Edwards, Mitchell, Booker, Fox, Halliburton, John Morant.

And then you even go into this Kyrie, Jamal Murray, Tyrese Maxey, Hardin, Damien Lillard, Mikhail Bridges group. It might be the deepest list of A plus, A list guards that we've had. Like I can't believe, I'm looking at this list, I had Halbert as my ninth best guard heading into the season. Halbert was really good last year. Remember how good he was before the All-Star break,

which I also think is part of the conversation about the over that we're having now that I think is worth at least bringing up. 43 games pre-All-Star, 22-4-12, 49-40 shooting splits. The assist are just out of control at that point. Eight threes a game, and then he's got the groin thing, he was missing time, we didn't know when he was coming back, and the shooting went from 40 to 30% from three,

the assist went down, the points went down. You know what, fuck it, I'm changing. There was gonna be less shots because of Siakam, but I loved that House brought up the Matheran part too, because like, look, maybe Matheran's not a long-term two guard, small four, where you just pencil him in for 20. But when that guy comes in, second unit is just attack, attack, attack. And I think they still want to see if they have something to walk or the lottery

pick from Houston. Maybe that's why McDermott's done on the roster anymore. And in the GM survey too, they were like, who's the best, who runs the best offensive system? And it was overwhelming, it was Rick Harlow. I changed my mind. Over. TJ McConnell's on this team. Nemhart turned into-

They're good, something scares me about it. It feels like they're trying to, why is it so low? Halliburton at the Olympics was incredible. And all of his like Caitlin Clark stuff. Halliburton and his girlfriend are friends with Caitlin and her boyfriend, they got their whole thing. I just like, I think he's a good like. I'm going under now, what was that?

I was like, that was I want to make sure Tommy Alter still listen to the pod segue. No, I'm mentioning it because I like the glue concept of it, right? No, he was an awesome teammate. You want your leader to be a glue guy. Back to over, I didn't understand. That's all?

You don't like Caitlin Clark? They signed Wasmatt and you were back in. Alright, I'm changing my pick. You wish you were Caitlin Clark's boyfriend. You guys talk me into it. I just want to be right. I want us all to be right. Chicago Bulls. Yes, under. I hate this team. I mean, I like Giddy, kind of. Lonzo, I'm thrilled.

He's gonna be playing the first game since January 14th of 22. Or is it, wait, is it 21? I had him in the depth chart with a question mark next to him because I don't know if he's gonna play, but I hope he does. Oh, that's right. Yeah, it's going to be almost three years. Yeah. Um, they resigned Patrick Williams, I think maybe cause they heard, they heard Presti liked him. Is that true? No, I'm just, I couldn't believe that contract. I mean, he hasn't really even done anything yet.

I'm excited. This team, this is a team stuck in something that's not good. A lot of Boozelas, buds. House was talking about him yesterday. He made me go Google on my phone. I did go out of 10 to 1, rookie of the year. House Peterman, rookie of the year. Still have some Dale and Terry shares. I just think that Boozelas is going to get run. Like when you look at the rookies that are going to get minutes with this lineup, with this team, with this constitution. I think the kids are going to get some shine. They have a top 10 protected draft pick, but here's the thing that makes it hard for the

over-under. You can be among the 10 worst teams and still win 30 or 31 games. If you look at last season. I don't know if that's going to be the case this year though. Also when you're top 10, you can't really fuck around. You really have to get in the bottom eight. I guess. Okay. Bottom eight is like 28 down. Is it worth it? Cause I did the five worst win totals in the last five years and it's higher than

you think it is. For what? The eight spot? No, the worst, the five worst win totals. So who had the least amount of wins. So last year it was 14, 15 eight spot? No, the five worst win totals. So who had the least amount of wins. So last year it was 14, 15, 21, 21, 22. Two years ago, 17, 22, 22, 27, 33. 33 wins was the fifth lowest. Fifth, yeah.

Right? Okay, I think it's important to do these just as we start getting some of these up to you. I agree. Three years ago, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25. Four years ago, 17, 20, 21, 22, 22. And then it was a disaster five years ago, 15, 19, 19, 20. Some of that has to do with how top heavy the league is though.

I tried to figure out- And it feels like the league is top heavier this year than usual. When we've done this, you know, now for years, at least with me being invited into it, which I appreciate, I've had like overwhelming theories on how to handle the bad teams, and you go, okay, well, the Cooper flag is the prize, then it's gonna get really weird here at the end,

but I thought that was gonna be the same thing with Wemba Nyama, and it still felt like it took too long. Tanking doesn't feel as extreme today as it was years ago, and that's probably partly due with the playing game and flattening the odds a little bit on the lottery. 39 and 43 last year and House made the key point, top 10 protected pick owed to the Spurs. I'm taking the over because I think that they were

are gonna win 28 games. Yeah, yeah, right. I mean, sometimes with the explanation of the overs, like what's wrong with you? And you're like, no, I still think they're terrible. Yeah, they are terrible. So you're going over. Yeah. No, I'm going under. I don't. They've got a million guards. I feel like the Levine part of it. That boy. I mean, he just. Tough summer. I don't think. Did he not iron? Didn't have the investor relations call for Zach. So this team, the last nine years was three 10 and four Oh one, which is six worst. I finally was able to get stat muse to give me that after I searched it. Are you sure it's right? It seems right to check it.

Seems right. I swear to God, stat muse is just a huge joke. They're just back there and like a room just fucking with us. Like a guy just asked for the Celtics home and away record in the 60s like tell him that Steve Carlton had 40 complete games in a row it was all the wrong information it's I don't understand where this is going. How many shipping ships have the bulls won? 18! This may not be what you want, but...

And then they push the subscriber button where it's like, for statmuse subscribers, get all of this, I'm like, you're not even supposed to raise them! Andras Guajarraga was originally from... Anyway, after this year, because they're going to be bad, they're probably going to be the bottom three for the last 10 years.

But I was looking at the Rynsdorfs, because this is now year 10 of the we don't really give a shit plan. They paid the luxury tax once. They haven't won a playoff series since 2015. The Last Dance was probably their highlight of the 2020s. Just that showing on TV. Good job. They have six titles. They put those out, but their franchise has either quadrupled or quintupled in value over the last 10 years. They might be geniuses. Maybe they're playing this perfectly. Like why pay the tax if you don't care about the team? Your franchise is going up anyway. You have the illusion of hope every year with something. This year it's like, Hey, we got Josh Giddy.

We got Kobe White. This is the family that owns the White Sox. Right. Hello. Good point. Yeah. They give zero shits. Well, Levine is untradable unless the Lakers panic.

And I thought Rossello just made a key point. It's players that you would like separately, but maybe not together. Like Kobe White with Gidey with Levine. I'm not sure I'm excited about that. There's just so many guards. I don't understand. Yeah, it's a lot of- Levine was miserable.

Maybe he'll be thrilled that DeRozan's gone, not taking his late game possessions. Maybe. Maybe, maybe a little overtaste for you there. Billy Donovan's not gonna like- I was talking about it. I was like, boy, his uniform wasn't iron. You can't even get the wrinkles out for picture day.

We like Bud Zelis though. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah. Well, I mean, he was fun. He's raw. Interesting. He was a fun draw prospect to watch, but if he can't shoot it, he's toast.

Yeah. He was fun. He was raw. Interesting. He was a fun draw prospect to watch. But if he can't shoot it, he's toast. There was some interesting training camp quotes from the coaches and teammates that they seemed unusually high on him.

I know they have to say whatever about the rookies, but they were kind of like, like Donovan after the first practice was, he's gonna play for us. Oh. But he was just like, just point blank. Okay. I'm gonna solve this now.

There's gonna be no G league for this guy. He's playing for us. So we'll see. Uh, uh, it's a Josh Gideon investor relations call. I'm not here. Not interested. He's not subscribed to the call. No, I don't want to talk to the investors.

Oh, Josh Gideon. Yeah, I just, I don't know. Oh, you're going to play dumb cause you bought so much Josh Giddy stock. Yeah. We're still in there with the only two people who liked that trade last summer. We went all in on it and I liked it for both teams. I just thought I'm in on Josh Giddy still. Yeah.

I think he's a good, I think he's a good basketball player and I don't want to take the under because I was actually rooting for them to be fun to watch so that we would be right about the giddy trade but that uh that 28 and a half is too high for me so I am going under well it's 27 and a half does that change your mind is that what it is right now I thought so no it went up to 28 now are you kidding me yeah hold on a second no it's not maybe I have to get out of this. That's it? One win? So 29, I'll stay in.

29's still pretty crappy. What do you mean 29? That's what it is now? I understand. I got you. Over. And then I get rewarded for my commitment. Yeah, it's 28 and a half.

Yeah, I get it. 28 and a half, I'm gonna stick with my over. Stap Muse, what is the Chicago over under? Here's the weather in Tampa. 42. All right, so house is over. Russel and I over under. Here's the weather in Tampa. 42. All right, so house is over. Russel and I are under, last but not least, the Detroit Pistons.

They're over under, it's 25 and a half. They have a new head coach, J.B. Bickerstaff. They won 14 games last year. They added Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, and the one and only Tobias Harris, who finally is unleashed. Right system, right time. Plus 980 for the playoffs, just throwing it out there. Cunningham, after the All-Star break, 25, 5 and 8, 39% from 3.

I was going to have an investor relations call, but I think we're good. I don't think we need one of them. It got really scary when there was that ringer piece from Zach on Cade. I'm going to go, wait, he's a super inefficient high volume guy. Like I hate these players. Why do I stand? And then things got a lot better, but not great. I can't believe this team won one less game with this roster than the Wizards did.

Monty Williams, this has got to be one of the worst coaching jobs. And he sounded as if during the season, he was surprised about players on his own team. It was a robbery. Yeah. Like apparently he didn't want it. It was like Den of Thieves 2. Monty Williams goes to Detroit and just steals 80 million from them. Like think about it. We're closing games with killing a man who's not in the league. As a lottery pick. Over Ivy.

Yeah. We were talking about it when it happened. I like the over 25 and a half. I think, I think this team is going to be frisky. Yeah. Me too. They're trying with these acquisitions show that they're trying? Right? If you just go through the team. Is there a better point guard depth chart than Cade, Sasser, Ivy, Wendell Moore?

Pretty good. Solid. Maybe the best in the league? Listen, Thompson, I thought had some interesting moments last year. He's at least a rebounding defense guy. Fantequillo was so good, Utah was like we just gotta fucking get rid of this guy He's gonna fuck up our draft pick Bobby Klintman finally in the league Ron Holland Big Stu they have Fred Vinson

They hired Fred Vinson to come in and help these guys learn how to shoot Lamar Stevens gives you solid minutes Well that last year we were watching them going Who put this team together and were they drunk? Why did they just have all these big guys and guards and no shooting? And what made anyone think in 2023, this was the type of team you want to put together. Now they have shooting. They figured out at least we got to just play Ivy and Cunningham together and let them figure it out.

They have rebounding. Their center is one of the, I think four best rebounding title odds this year. And then Harris, I don't know. I'm kind of rooting for him, I don't know why. Mainly because it would enrage Brasillo

if he scored like 24 a game for Detroit in the first month. I am a happily over on this. So Brasillo, you're over. And House is over. I am. I wouldn't be mad at Tobias Harris scoring buckets. I feel like Philly didn't even appreciate him. That was tough.

For the Tobias hive, it was tough with the take charge, those, hey, he didn't take it in charge since like 2019. Remember that? Keep the game moving. I loved it. Less whistles. So out of Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Washington, I think I liked Detroit the most

out of those five. Wow. Say it again? Toronto, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, Washington, and I'll throw in Charlotte too. Chicago might be, even though I went under on it, I don't know, That was a reach. Last night when I went to bed, I didn't know what to do with this number, but it's just

the last ditch effort of the K to Ivy Wiseman. I'm just kidding. Wiseman's on the Pacers. All right. So here's what we did. Phoenix, 47 and a half. We all went over. I made it a lock.

Anyone else want to lock that down? And we're going to wait. All right. House is locking it down too. I don't have to wait. Okay lock You're locking it too. Yep. Okay Wow So we had that we had the Sacramento Kings 44 and a half we all went over on that Golden State Warriors 43 and a half. Rosselle and I went over, house went under the Lakers 42 and a half. I really want to put a lock on it, but I don't want to waste one. Uh, we all went under on that and then Clippers 37 and a half.

We all went under and I'm putting a lockdown on that too, because I don't think that team's going to be very good. And it's going to be sad. And then in the central Milwaukee, 50 and a half, we all went under. Cleveland, 48 and a half. We went over and me and House locked that one down. You want to lock that down, Rossello? I'll give you my lock list when we're through it all. I kind of like changed my mind in the course of today.

Totally fine. Indiana, 47 and a half. You guys talked me into it. We all went over. Chicago, 28 and a half. Under for me, under for Rosillo. Over for House. And then finally, Detroit.

Over 25 and a half. We all said, that sounds great. So there you go. All right. That's it for part two. Thanks again to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti for producing. Don't forget you can watch all of these episodes on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. And get ready for part three because that's coming very soon. See you in part three. I wanna see them on the wayside Never said I don't have a few years with them

On the wayside, on the front side Never said I don't have a few years with them Must be 21 plus in President-elect states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.