The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders, Part 3: The Atlantic and Southeast Divisions With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | Starring Tatum, Harden, Butler, and Trae

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

In Part 3 of a three-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House to run through NBA win totals for the Atlantic and Southeast divisions. (00:53) Celtics (10:03) 76ers (22:31) Knicks (29:19) Nets (34:58) Raptors (41:00) Heat (48:03) Hawks (55:33) Hornets (1:00:21) Magic (1:08:00) Wizards Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Ryen Russillo and Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

part three of the NBA overrunners extravaganza with Rosillo and house. How are we still going? It's next. It's the bill Simmons podcast presented by fan duel footballs in full action. Fan duels highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well. A million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into

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You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on prime all season long. Watch prime Monday night hockey, deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews McDavid Crosby, the NHL's best. They're all on prime, prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. All right. We're brought to you by the ringer podcast network. If you missed part one and part two, we did the entire Western conference plus Milwaukee's division in the East. This is going to be part three, the Atlantic, as well as whatever the hell Miami's division is called. And then we're going to give you our locks for the season of all the over-unders that we did.

Joe House here. Ryan Rosillo is here. One more time. Pearl Jib. All right, guys. Boston Celtics, 54 and a half. They're plus 165 for the NCAA, plus 380 for the title, plus 175 for the conference. They were 57 and25 last year.

This just instinctively feels like an over to me, but I don't trust myself because it's my favorite team. But I do think the holiday white thing is going to be awesome. There's a lot of ways to talk about this team. What's the number one thing you're looking at, Rosillo? Their guys play. I mean, other than Prazingis, their guys play. So that's why they feel like

a safer over for one of the highest projected teams of any number you can find. So, you know, usually somebody wins a conference like mid to high 50s. Like a 58, 59, 60 range. So, I love the depth. I love the versatility. Prazingis scares the shit out

of me. But even without him, I think they win a lot of games. House, there was this moment, the first preseason game. They put Przingis in the corner in the Al Horford spot. And Tatum had the ball, or somebody had it, and they swung around, and they threw it to him. He was open. But then somebody closed out on him. But he's 7'3", and he just shot a wide-open three over the guy.

And I was like, oh. I just think this is a nice spot for Perzingis. I have no idea if he can play healthy and they're going to post them up and they're going to use, he's going to have these incredible defensive guards. All he's going to have to do is protect the rim. I'm sure there's going to be a couple of teams that try to pound them and exploit them. What did you see from him last year that makes you think he could be the missing piece for a Boston Celtics title? His versatility. He absolutely gets it going sometimes and you can kind of tell right away if he's in his rhythm. And he surprisingly would go down and mix it up a little bit. Now, defensively, he can't be under the basket. If he's under the basket, it's a bucket.

He's a guaranteed bucket against any guy. Who was the guy who caught him last year? Vucevic? Vucevic absolutely annihilated him. Yeah, that Bulls game. I'm telling you. They just parked him down below there and let Vucevic put him in the torture chamber,

and he did it. The biggest question mark to me isn't the fit of Porzingis, because I think it'll work great. Like, you know, I'll knock on wood for it. Question mark to me isn't the fit of Porzingis because I think it'll work great. I'll knock on wood for it. He should be not in harm's way with the construction of this team and that roster. The question to me with the Celtics and the only hesitation, reservation I have,

what's the defensive identity? You lost the two stalwarts, plus Grant Williams. I know Grant Williams and Joe Maz couldn't get on the same page. They couldn't figure out the right role for Williams. But those were like tough guys, tough attitudes. They got out to the extent and to the perimeter. They had the commitment to do that. What's the defensive identity of this team?

Well, Drew's a better defender than Smart is. Yeah, and it's not even close. No argument. No argument whatsoever. And White is better than Smart i think too would you say those are the two best defensive perimeter guards in the league caruso and caruso yeah i think caruso might be better you could argue he might be better than both of them yeah but they're in the discussion yeah yeah i mean some people like look at white as just being too small and miami was looking to attack him and sometimes it looked like it was like oh wait white's just overmatched at this level when it matters but i i think you know the the most basic thing you're asking for from your

perimeter guys is like just don't screw it up by not knowing what we're doing and white is definitely smart with that like look the rob williams Williams part of it, it's a luxury, but I'm telling you, every time, every few weeks, he would land and you'd go, oh, he's hurt. No, he's not hurt. Wait, he's hurt. He's playing. I can't tell if he's hurt or not. Like, it's, I'm just telling Portland fans, like, get used to it

because it's constant. And if your team is trying to win a championship and you're banking on him being healthy all the time, it gets really frustrating. What would you compare him to for a purchase in Manhattan beach? Like a golf cart that keeps breaking down. It seems like an awesome idea to have a golf cart. I think it is a lot like the golf cart, but not because it's breaking down.

It's like, well, Hey, I don't drive drunk, but it's a golf cart. Right. So you're like, I'm not really doing anything wrong. It's just a golf cart how fast can i go probably it's the golf cart right i think their defensive identity is the drew derrick white and tatum who i think is going to play really hard this year because i think he's excited that this is his team i think he is an mvp candidate i'm not going to pick it but i think this team's going to really give a shit in the regular season. And I think there's going to be an attitude and identity with them because they have a

bunch of guys who play hard. After what happened last year, losing to Miami. Yeah. There's no reason, like, who are they to think that they can just mail it in this year and then see what happens. They should be furious about what happened. They also have a bunch of bench guys that I think are going to give a shit. Like Pritchard, who they paid, but I think Pritchard is...

I don't think it's going to happen, but you don't think Pritchard is as the six man of the year conversation with people in a circle? Like, I think I could do it. 25 minutes a game. I'm going to be a top five three-point shooter. Pritchard's an irrational confidence guy. I like Brissette.

I think Jordan Walsh is going to be a fan favorite I think their bench is going to come in and swing some home games I don't trust it on the road as much but the top six is great

Horford should not play more than 1200 minutes max I would just keep him in the garage with one of those car covers on I can't believe

what they got from him last year but you could even see then him being so good all last year. Like, I don't know if that's why he was on the teams at the end.

But that was a big win. He couldn't move in the playoffs. He couldn't move against Miami. He couldn't make any shots. If they're wrong about Joe Mazzulla,

is that the biggest mistake anyone made this summer? Because if they're wrong about him, they basically went all in and they blamed, they said it was everybody else's fault.

And if we just get this guy. Well, did they say that? No, they basically said it. I don't know. Does that mean they believe it? You know, I think they, I just don't know how you can do that job

the first year and not be making mistakes all the time. Especially with like barely any assistance. Right. That's the point. How about Jeff Van Gundy in the mix?

Well, this is a whole thing. Look at what they did assistant coach-wise. One of the bits of research I did was like, let's be honest. Yeah. But I wanted to see how they built this up because I'm genuinely curious about forecasting the Celtics team. It was this Jeff Van Gundy thing, which was funny senior advisor, but they brought in Sam Cassell.

And Charles Lee, who everybody loves. Really good, right? The first assistant under Coach Budd on the 21 winning Bucs team. And then Emile Jefferson, Tatum's guy from Duke. Phil Presley. That know doing it right it wasn't their fault but he may had the issue that he had and they get rid of smart and they get rid of grant who are the two guys that he clashed with last year so they have cleared the fucking runway for this guy. They plowed all the snow off it. They changed the plane tires

and they gave this guy a nice plane. And we're going to find out if he's a good coach or not. Because I have no idea if he is or not. I don't. And Rossello doesn't either. I will tell you that there are people that I trust that really do like him. Yeah.

But there were a few too many moments late in the season where you know i don't i don't really love being super critical of the coaches because i feel like there's all this stuff going on that we don't know about but when the coach makes it easy to second guess them with some of the stuff and you're like what the fuck's going on but i'm a big blame the player guys like they were pathetic against against Miami to close those first two games. And then in game three, you're going like, where's,

where's the pride. And then the pride actually shows. Game two is the inexcusable one to me when Butler was just punking them. And then everybody got mad at Grant Williams after, listen, they they're out of excuses. This is a seven year run now. And they have,

if not the most talented team, one of the most talented teams tatum's 26 this is right at the time of his career and of a normal nba stars career where you're supposed to peak 26 27 20 29 jalen brown got paid porzingis is in the single best basketball situation he's ever been in and uh and they have stuff to trade too they have picks that they can still move around and if they want to get slightly better they have picks that they can still move around, and if they want to get slightly better, they will. They're spending a stupendous amount of money on this team.

This team is like a Golden State Warriors-level expenditure, but it's hard not to be super pumped. I'll just tell you this. You guys know this because we've certainly all talked about it enough, but I couldn't watch that team play offense in the playoffs anymore. The team that they had, I just couldn't do it. They had to change something. I didn't know they would be as aggressive as they were, but I'm glad they were.

I think they had to be that way. You can't be like, no, no, we're good every year, because as we laid out last spring, the NBA, you can't just assume it's going to keep going. You got to get aggressive. Unfortunately, the Philadelphia 76ers can't say the same. And their over-under is 47 and a half and it's dropped two wins. And I still like the under. This is a mess. House, can they save the season? I hope they don't do this, but if this Harden thing is unfixable, is there a scenario where they just move on from Daryl to try to save it?

Because I feel like that scenario exists. How does that help them? I don't know. Like, what else do you do? You have this Embiid window. Well, if they reach the conclusion that by getting rid of Daryl, then Harden will stay and that he will be happy. And be engaged for a year.

Well, they would have to, like, dangle the extension that he will be happy and be engaged for a year well they they would have to like dangle the extension that he thought he was getting like they'd have to put that back they do that they should sell the team well i just have a hard time believing that the ownership's going daryl we should pay him he's like sorry good point right so cosmetically i guess but that would then mean you would have to pay him and i wouldn't want to pay him i would see i would go back i would have that right side drive in game seven in boston and see harden go i don't want to be here and i'd go this is this is why we're not paying him you know it's funny rossell's gonna miss harden when it's all over and harden's retired rossell's you know what it was really fun to just i'm not just complain about that i'm not because a lot of it's the way he was officiated

and i look back i regret those hours regret all the hours that i put in do you think joel and bead saying the same thing when does he say get me out of here the only thing that matters for philadelphia is just divining joeliid's intentions and trying to figure out the best possible path to keeping him. Yeah, because we can think Daryl is stubborn and I give him a lot of credit. You know, you moved off of Ben Simmons who doesn't even play for Harden. You had a chance. You know, there was a stretch last year where you're like, hey, look, they're in the conversation. If something were to go their way, I think we all agree as we've touched on earlier and be kind of gets this collective pass about not being that successful in the playoffs where other

guys with his profile would start really getting beat up on the talk shows. I mean, it's not, it doesn't mean like, Hey guys, let's remind ourselves this year to shit on and beat it more because I like them. You know what I mean?

Like I just haven't, I haven't really wanted to do that. But there's some real proof that like some of the stuff I would say about westbrook not getting out of the first round like i could apply the same way to imbied and the idea too that if you have an old traditional center initiating your offense in crunch time playoff possessions does the game even work that way anymore especially over the course of two weeks when you just get to watch every single thing 400 minutes of it or whatever it is a little late on the doubles there's still some stuff with him

where i'm like man how can you not feel some of this pressure all these different things happening so look as much as we're sifting through the mb part of this and daryl will be like my price is my price and you know all this different stuff there may be a play here where with simmons it it wasn't it wasn't dire enough where it could be dire enough that like there may be a move initiated based exactly house on what you said about like making sure mb realizes we're on his side in this more so than hanging out for every last asset it would be interesting if mb just came out and was like i'm fucking tired of this like i really want to win a title and they've got to fix this i wonder how that would be because part of it you would go yeah you but i mean direct it toward harden and be like you know

what man you opted in like we were really good last year and the east is worse like let's try to win a title together stop bitching about all this other stuff. Like we're right here. We should have beaten Boston last year. You have to play better. You opted in. Yeah. You opted in dude. You want to,

you want to, to make this money. They got rid of the coach that you wanted them to get rid of. Right. They brought in Nick Nurse who won a title for five years ago. I think that's the very same conversation you guys are sort of walking through. It could be the other way. Like him going to management and saying,

do what it takes to keep James. I like James. James made me the mother effing MVP of the league. We got very far into the positive. We got us this way though. I don't, I don't think he feels this way. I don't think he feels this way.

This is the question. This is what I'm saying. You got to divine his intentions. What did you watch game six and game seven in the Boston series? He was hurt. He's got to divine his intentions. What does he want? Did you watch Game 6 and Game 7 of the Boston Series? He was hurt. He's going to say to everybody. James Harden was or Embiid? No, Embiid. I'm saying did you see the James Harden part? But James Harden carried

them into Game 6 and Game 7. They weren't in that. There was no competition otherwise without James Harden carrying them. This is the James Harden truth. I'm trying to tell you what the other side of this might look like, but it's all up to Embiid. It's Joel Embiid's truth. I'm trying to tell you what the other side of this might look like, but it's all up to Embiid. It's Joel Embiid's call.

If he went to Maury and said, get it done with James Harden and let's go to war. I mean, Nick Nurse, I think, could figure out a way to make this work. I have a lot of respect for Nurse. Have you seen some of this stuff coming from there where it's like kind of veiled doc shots? Yeah. It's like a lot more

movement this year yeah it'd be nice to be in an offense where the ball moves around like it just like no no I'm looking forward to Harden off the ball cutting

yeah it was Doc it was Doc holding him back yeah now Harden's I mean yeah he moves like a lot

Ginobili like or the way he moves with that ball I just love when like they used to do the same shit with LeBron like oh now he's gonna to get out,

like push the tempo. Yeah, get out. He's going to run way more. Right. Like he's way more athlete. And it's like, actually, he's one of the slower paced guys because he's so good at dissecting what happens.

So you can talk about whatever you want to do. The guy's going to default back to what he's comfortable with. So that's what basketball is. Especially as you get older. Yeah. Philly owns their own first round pick this year, but they can't really trade it

because they have a protected pick to OKC in 25 and then another protected pick to Brooklyn in 27. They have their own first in 29 and 30. They don't really have a lot of avenues to improve this team. I still feel like they should have gone after Dame because, as I said, when it was happening, I just thought they had a two- or year window here with Embiid and uh I don't think I think the window might have slammed shut so you would have done Maxie and I would have I would have tried to trade

Maxie to a third team tried to get those picks and just tried to figure out some sort of package to try to get Dame with and put him with Embiid and see if I have a better chance but I think they're thinking we can turn Harden into more stuff. Keep Maxie. I just don't think they're going to be able to turn Harden into more stuff. I don't think there's a deal for him. I wonder how much the Simmons thing motivates Maury to go like, well, look, everybody, remember? Yeah.

Other GMs would have given in. Other GMs would say, hey, we just need to turn the page on this thing. He waited and waited and waited. But the difference is Harden is like one of the great saboteurs we've ever had in any sport. Like Ben Simmons just went to London and went to clubs and just like he checked out.

And just like Clutch will save me on this. He's not disappearing. Harden's like, I'm going to be here and you guys are all going to be fucking miserable. And every like three days, I'm going to do something because he knows how to do this.

But it's different though because he still is hoping for the contract. So unless he thinks that's why I just can't wait. I can't wait to see what's going to happen. Like, is he going to actually sabotage the situation to get out then while also demanding a new deal worth $180 million? He also doesn't seem to understand that the other 29 teams in the league have watched the behavior. Right. So it's like, if you have some neighbor and they had a dog and you saw the dog attack multiple neighbors, right. And the neighbor came to you and was like, do you want to adopt my dog?

Really nice looking German shepherd. I'm like, no, I just talk about Biden's dog. I mean, I know we don't talk politics a lot on this pod. Commander Biden? Yeah. Biden comes to you and is like, hey, commander needs a home. Joe, can we talk about your dog? He bit at least 11 Secret Service agents. But yeah, I mean, at some point, the behavior is the behavior.

And the other teams see this and are like, well, we trade for this guy. Well, what if he becomes unhappy in three months? No, you're right. But I don't think, i think when you're really this special and you've been this special it's something for this long and it's actually gone your way so many times people just talked themselves into it yeah and i also think like look there's there's a sense around the league too that the agents that he's working with like if you had a clutch if you had one of the one of the like the real foundational agents who then maybe like this is power this is the part of the agent game that most of us overlook or don't understand is that like when there's a

guy who's really valuable to a team that opens up doors for like the agent to have power with that team. Yeah. Okay. And, you know, everyone looked at Lamar Jackson's deal and said, oh, remember all of you that said he needed an agent? It's like, well, he still didn't really get what he wanted. He wanted to be traded. And if you want to be traded, you have to have something that your agent can like barter, meaning other clients or hey, down the road. Because as you know, and I know you hate it and we argue about it all the

time, like there are simply just transactions done where the team does the agent a favor. And it probably doesn't come back to pay them back as much as they would hope, but they still keep that line of communication open. So if you're trying to manipulate this a third time and not have the agent that maybe has the most intense client list it's an even harder thing to pull off yeah while on top of it's a really good point not being as desired as he was in the past they started 99 last year house went 45 and 19 won 54 games they were basically the team with the best record in the league for the last three-fourths of the season.

Hard to miss 24 games, Maxie missed 22, and Bede missed 16. That's a ton of wins for how many games. Yeah. So, it's dropped enough that I'm not positive it's a lock for me. It was a lock at 49 and a half

because I was like, they're not winning 50 games. That's ludicrous. But the 47 and a half in a bad conference, it's still a hard under for me. You guys are under? I just, it's a bit like my Kings, or excuse me, it's a lot like my Clippers pick

where I'm not going to be wrong on the over. Right. Knowing what could potentially happen here. Yeah. And there's what, a four to one chance Embiid gets mad in January and it's like, you know what, we've run our course here. Yeah.

But if Daryl still the GM, that doesn't mean anything. You're not just going to trade him for nothing. I just think like, Oh, Hey, we're going into it. We're not quite sure which way James Harden's leaning.

Then, then how, how do you take the over? Nick's 45 and a half. And we're going to talk about them right after this break. Get ready to start the NFL week off right. Right now, all customers can get a no sweat, same game parlay for Thursday night football.

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Must be legal drinking age. All right, the Knicks were 47 and 35 last year, and the over-under for them, for some reason, has dropped by one and a half, even though the conference got worse. They had the pretty much exact same team they had last year. They added a defense. And so, and,

uh, they signed Josh Hart and it just seems, I don't know why their record would be worse. I guess the question for me is what's the next move for this team? Because they don't have enough to win a title. They're kind of on the hold for, can they get Giannis? Can they get Mitchell? What if Embiid becomes available? So it's this two parallel passive. We're a really good four or five seed, but we're probably not

getting it at a round two. But we're also kind of asset maintaining all these dudes in case something bigger happens. That makes me a little nervous with the over-under, but Rosillo, I'm going over 45 and a half. I think this is at least a 46-win team. Yeah, it's part of the Tibbs deal where at some point last year, it felt like he was done. That definitely had a lot of momentum. For like two weeks. When you think about certain things you'll hear over the course of a season,

it looked like his days were numbered. Not even the case. Jalen Brunson was so far beyond. Like, we knew he was good. This was absurd, what he did to the Cavs in the playoffs. And, you know, you look at him and go, okay, well, who's that number two that makes them good enough to feel like they're in that first tier of the East?

They're just not. They're not. But their one through eight is pretty good. And, you know, I hate to bring him up again because I spent so much time on him, too much time on him last year, but I think the hope is that Barrett is something that's either tradable or is the defining number two,

three guy with Julius Randle. There was some nice playoff stuff with him, though, that I think we both liked. Yeah, but the shooting across the board was down dramatically. I mean, he was 40% from three two years ago. He was 31% with a 34 in between that. And, you know, look, I brought it up constantly.

I thought it was really weird, like the way they would sub him out. They were doing kind of lamello, like, yeah, sure, you're playing in the fourth quarter, buddy, but you aren't. And they would get weird on the patterns there. I just, for them to feel better about their situation, he needs to finally put it together at 23, which usually this means four seasons in, this is who he is, or that he does enough that he's actually valuable enough

for whatever that next move is. But good luck. House, they started 10 and 13. They finished 37 and 22, which is a 50-win pace. And everybody's back. Why aren't we going over with this team? I think that we are. Okay.

I love the 17 and 8 that they went with Josh Hart. I love what, you know, there's a force multiplier kind of effect with this team in terms of when Hart arrived, it delivered an identity to the team. And then this DiVincenzo addition, which is like, he feels like, yeah, great. But no, that's another Villanova guy.

And there's a whole thing going on like a whole subtext of of this this rallying like they the the town loves this team and they got to figure out what happens with Julius Randall but they have tons of flexibility in terms of um picks and and and talent to land you know they're if. If Toronto decides to be a seller, I expect the Knicks to be all in on this. They're a super over for me this year. Randall's last five years,

22, 10, and 4. One second team All-NBA, one third team All-NBA, and he only missed 33 games. There's a case he's like the most underrated guy in the league nobody's like you know i fucking love julius randall you know and i fell out of love with him in the miami series yeah i know but he was also then it turned out he was playing on a bad enough ankle that they had to have surgery for it you know so you're right because whenever

we do the all nba stuff i'm like, wait, I think I have to vote him. Right. Yeah. I have to vote him in. And then you're right. He plays all the time. I mean, look, there was that year where he was going to be eligible for a contract extension and he took the money instead of waiting it out like another year, but it was still such

a huge number that you're like, okay, it kind of makes sense. And then when he did it was like, oh, it was good that he did it because he had taken a dip down. He's just always a strange player. He's just always going to be a strange, like, wow, that guy of makes sense. And then when he did it was like, oh, it was good that he did it because he had taken a dip down. He's just always a strange player. He's just always going to be a strange, like, wow, that guy's numbers are way better than I think they are. But in a big game, am I actually afraid of Julius Randall? And the answer's probably no. You had Shamit face that you created. Yeah. Randall face is like a different kind of face. Like he's one of those guys. He'd almost be better playing with a hockey mask. So we wouldn't see he's,

he's got expressions that just make you think things are going badly or he's unhappy or, but it's just kind of his face. It's a great call. Cause Shamit face has a face that you be willing to like overlook. You're like, well, that guy can't be good.

I mean, I'm sorry. You have to win me over. Right. Because I don't trust your face. Randall face just shares too much. Cause like when it's not going right and he's in the building, like that got really weird at points last year where

it felt like the city and the crowd was turning on him. Um, and look, I know that he was hurt, but I would say that there were enough moments where he could do stuff in that Miami series. It was like, okay, so you're hurt when all the bad things are happening. Yeah. But you're healthy enough when all the good things are happening there. Maybe he grows a giant beard, like a hardened beard. They have a lot of first-round picks. They have all their own picks. Dallas is protected first, top 10. Detroit's protected first, top 18, top 13, top 11, top 9.

Those are the protections. Washington's first, Top 12 next year. I think you'll be keeping that one, House. We're keeping that one. Top 10 and 25. Top 8 and 26. And then they have Milwaukee's first. Top four protected.

So they can mobilize pretty fast with some packages and some things. It'd be funny if the Mitchell thing, well, I don't think the Cavs would do that that way. Especially knowing like with Mitchell. I mean mean Mitchell would have to force the issue so Mitchell would have to say hey with a one-on-one left I'm out of here which is a little different than if you're just going to straight up be a free agent yeah and then I don't know how many times you're going to keep reading the the Knicks are monitoring Carl Anthony Towns and this has been going on for like five years I don't even think it's true they they're run by kentucky people and i think they well yeah but that was the thing is that supposedly like all this was

going to pay off yeah and it you know they've done a really good job with with what they have to this point but landing that big guy and they could have done the mitchell trade they didn't uh i don't think they believed they had enough competition for it. So they thought they're going to maybe get their way. And look, they ended up eliminating the guy. You know, when, when going into that series last year, I was like, come on, Cleveland's going to be better than New York. And it was, it was kind of humiliating the way they beat Cleveland. I thought, you know, who I think is going to have a huge year for me. No, I didn't just want to wake up or something Brooklyn Nets 37 and a half

they are plus 152 for the playoffs I personally think they blew it not going for Dame Lillard so here's where it gets tough

because I don't like this team and they are making Ben Simmons the point forward and Spencer Dinwiddie has had some thoughts about this already he's positive about it,

but you know, he had the car keys last year and now Ben's going to have the car keys. So he's going to have to learn to adjust off the ball. Um, and we had workout videos posted again. Yeah. There's been some workout videos. They don't have their first round pick this year.

It goes to Houston. So they don't have really any incentive to be bad, but I asked, I don't think they're very good. You're talking Dean Witte, Simmons, Miles Bridges, Cam Johnston, Nick Claxton, Finney Smith's in there, O'Neal. They're fine. It's a perfectly served, Lonnie Walker's in there now. Perfectly serviceable team. I just, is it okay if I just never believe in ben simmons again yeah i was funny even my ben simmons but i'm not gonna believe in the other ben simmons because i was thinking about like clean slate program like could we just each have three guys we go we have to we have to be clean slate we can't bring up any of the shit anymore so randall would be a good one for you for clean

slate program no because when i did that deep dive on him where i just watched him yeah for an entire miami game because i was having like a hard time with that series right i'm just gonna watch him and boy did i end up not liking him after a couple of those games but yeah if i just said ben simmons clean slate program i can't bring up anything in the past i have to go in with a totally like open mind i have to i have to be like an nba writer that has a profile on him yeah where i'm like this guy gets it right around the corner right could you do it could you do it with russell westbrook i think westbrook's like you can't do it anymore harden i would not allow that content to be taken from me could you do a clean slate deal with ben Simmons starting now. I challenge you.

I don't know how he looks athletically yet. Cause the guy that played for the Sixers until the fateful Atlanta series was just athletically a specimen who I think was one of the best athletes in the league and was an awesome defensive player. And I don't, is that guy still exist? So if you're telling me that guy's back and mentally there's some stuff going on,

but at least the athlete part is back, I could talk myself into it. I just don't know. I, when somebody doesn't play for how many years was that? Two and a half?

Well, yeah, I mean, kinda. I mean, you're going spring of 2021, throw away the 22, 23, he was a zombie. So it's been-

It's literally an all time, I don't know. We, you have no way- But we might know. Deep down, we all might know. The big question is, does he like to play professional basketball? I'm really glad you asked that. The answer has been probably not for a while here. Doesn't seem like it.

No. But what if he decides that he does? He's really good at saying all the right things when basketball isn't scheduled. Like August, great quotes. Look, if it were just his health, that'd be one thing. I think he is mentally shot yeah no no coming back he's a kid though he well that determines the over-under because if if you

don't think he's going to be good for them this year i don't see how they hit the over i don't think he was still getting 35 and 47 team remember i think it was a boston game where he had a million assists in the first half and they actually took him out of the rotation to close the game because it was getting a little tighter yeah and he was starting to revert to i don't really want to make decisions here with the ball and they ended up yanking him from now if that's because of his back okay um that's what he tells us all the time and that he's back he's ready to go i think the biggest thing with brooklyn here is they built up so much equity despite the weird turnover they had with Kyrie and they were 11 12 games over 500 they make that trade they basically play like

three to four games under 500 with this group for the rest of the way but they still held on to a six seed so I think the overplay that mind trick yeah so I'm going under. Yeah, I came to the same conclusion because that one KD Kyrie stretch skewed their record and I think they're a 35-win team. Not a fan.

They kept thinking they were going to fall apart, but their record was already built in to protect against it and then everybody else around that

seating was a game or two or below 500. I really like Mikael Bridges, but if he's your number one guy and the last guy in the Jumbotron video as you're introducing the starters, the guy who's got the taco powder, he's like, blows it out, and then fireworks go off. I'm not that excited about my team.

And again, I really like Mikael Bridges. I love him. I think he's great. But to me, that's 35 wins. That's your guy. He's showing the ceiling for him is even further than what we thought it could be. It's awesome. I would put him above Jalen Brown. But if Jalen Brown was the best guy in this Brooklyn Nets team, I would think

they're going to win 34 games. So, there you go. House, you're in on the under as well? Yeah, I'm in on the under. I feel bad. I can you're in on the under as well? Yeah, I'm in on the under. I feel bad. I can't invest in Din Shitty. Wow. Well, that's some Washington bad blood stuff. That's right.

You're right about that. This would have been a fun Dame team. I like how it worked out. It's more fun to have them on Milwaukee, but it would have been fun if they just said, fuck it and went after him. Toronto, 36 and a half. They have a new coach.

New attitude. They replaced Van Vliet with Dennis Schroeder. Okay. They brought in Grady Dick. They owe a top six protected first to San Antonio.

So the question is, how good do you want to be? Does that mean they'll tank? My guess is they're probably going to try to be good. And I kind of like the team. They're 41 and 41 last year. I don't understand why it's five wins worse when really the only thing that changed was they turned Van Vliet into Schroeder.

And again, I kind of like Schroeder. I thought he was good on the Lakers last year. Their chemistry was clearly off. They clearly needed a coach change. Rosillo, it's an over for me. And I have them in the playoffs, I think. I'm going under. Okay, let's hear it.

I do think Van Vliet was that important. Although Van Vliet's a weird player where there's all these other like baked in advanced stats that tell you he's actually like terrible well the problem is they were there was like man they had such bad luck in the clutch last year it was like maybe they had bad luck because fred van vliet was deciding every game for them playing against like steph curry and nicole yokich i also think there was some like massive three point percentage number against them that was like absurd so that would speak to your over yeah call and all this but um i think van vliet was just really really steady for him and schruder i've

had about seven different relationships with i've we've never been better me and me and dennis we broke up he moved out he's back in we're doing great a lot of the young guys that i've liked on this team like i need to be better. It's kind of like a collective Evan Mobley team. Yeah. Where there's a couple dudes. Like, OG and Inobi's going into the Hall of Fame, obviously, for who we won't be traded for.

And I think we all kind of like them. But, like, some of the stuff you'd hear about, like, who he wasn't offered for, you're like, wait, is there another one that I'm not aware of? Well, you have a lot of barn stock. I do, but— And he wasn't good last year for what we thought. Yeah, I'm also willing to admit, hey, I got to see some of the stuff.

What do you go to that's really tough to defend? Not, hey, do you get 15 shots a game? Do you have something that's really tough? And I think he and Mobley, it'd be nice if we saw something this year. What do you got, House? I mentioned in part one about how I'm a petty better. And I really don't forgive easily when a team burns me. This team underperformed by such a significant amount last year.

And I'm sick of their shit, to be honest with you. Having said all that, I'm on the over because I think that they are a 37-win team with the talent. Well, the problem is that they had an identity, and it was a successful identity, and they could be a 45 or 46-win team in the East if they maintain that identity. For whatever reason, they decided, it seems, as a group,

to not continue to bang the hell out of the offensive boards to push their perimeter defense all the way out to play relentlessly they had this this collection of guys nobody that was taller than 6'10 yeah and that was the game plan and it really worked they had 45 or 46 wins they came in last year forecasted around that slightly under it. I was like, wait a minute. I love the way that this team plays. Nick nurse has them cooking.

They have a good identity. They're an inside outside kind of team. And collectively for whatever reason, they're like, ah, fuck it. This, this is too hard.

I don't want to do this anymore. And they stopped playing the kind of relentless defense that they, they, they had, you know, the previous season. They got really surly. Like Siakam was always pissed about stuff, it felt like.

And then. Would you see the Messiah quotes about we were selfish last year? And he was basically, you know, and that's what needs to change. It's like, who are you talking about? Every basketball team is run by four people. One of the best like preparation guys adjustment guys like other basketball people rave about nick nurse all the time so i kind of wanted to go over you know like they're not there's no way they're that far off from 40

wins or whatever but i just don't know why in a first year a new guy coming in like this could be the part of the demise for the Raptors where it's like, you know, they had these pieces that were left over. Lowry's gone. Van Vliet's gone. Maybe it's Siakam and these younger players that I've all kind of liked. I'll throw precious in the mix too.

Like, yeah. I mean, eventually I asked myself like, how come you still like this guy so fucking much? I think Schroeder could be good on this team. I really liked the fit and I wouldn't like him on most teams, I don't think, but even in

the world championships, like they built that whole Germany team around him and Franz and he was cooking like that. I thought in the playoff series, I thought he really bothered the Warriors. I thought he did a nice job. You're right. I thought he did a really nice job on Jamal when

they, you know, Jamal was awesome in the playoffs, but they were one of the key moments that happened in one of those Denver games was, didn't he get kicked out? He got into it with somebody. I remember he was going to state. He got kicked out of one game. You could feel the difference with the Lakers. Like he was like

a pit bull in those series. I just think he's going to, you know, he's a really smart kind of old school foreign point guard. So you're going to take him over? I'm taking over. Oh, wow. I have them in the playoffs. All right. I think they're going to be all right.

I have them over. Grady Dick, excitement level. Is there a white guy resurgence right now? Pritchard gets a contract. Grady Dick. Teams want TJ McConnell. Hero's got a chip on his shoulder. Kevin Love's back with Miami, Hayward expiring. Are white guys back? Not yet. Okay. We're going to take a break and we're going to do the Southeast. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance.

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and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. Southeast, Miami has the highest over-under, 44.5. They were 44.38 last year. I got to say, this is an inexplicable over-under to me. And I think there's a lot of disrespect to a Miami team that I know I'm Dr. Loomis in the Halloween franchise, just warning people about Michael Myers every year.

But man, this team. So they lose Struess and Vincent and they don't get Dame. And the natural instinct is to go, ah, write them off. They're done. Well, they're fucked. I think they're fine. And I think, I think Hero, I love every single quote I've read from him from the past two months. He's fucking pissed that he was in trade rumors all summer. I think he is the number one chip on the shoulder guy in the league right now. Um, for maybe not the talent of some of these other dudes, but I think this is, I think he's approaching this. Like I want to show everybody night after night that I can't believe Portland was like, nah, that's not enough. Um, Lowry's in a contract year.

Jimmy Butler is in his, you know, he's about to hit his mid-30s. And, you know, I think he likes, considers himself now as one of the best guys in the league, which he should. But Hawkeye's coming in. Duncan Robinson, who they're able to resuscitate. People like Jovich. I think Rosillo likes Jovich. They still have Bam. They still have Jimmy. They got Caleb Martin with some real sea legs under him now. I think this team's going to be pretty good. I think to me, this is like a mid to high

forties for me. And, uh, I didn't even really blink. Would you have house? Well, the, the wind total is 44 and a half and they won 44 last season but their uh uh expected wins based on point differential was was they had a negative point differential because they won all those games in the clutch so the you know but that's part of what makes them the heat is they're smarter than everybody else they have a top 10 defense every year that's why because they have a top 10 defense they have the That's why. Because they have a top 10 defense. They have the best coach in the league. I'm not so sure that a motivated hero is what this team wants or needs. I'm talking regular season only.

I understand. I'm just trying when regular season is. It's just hard for Hero to go, I can't believe all the disrespect. But it's like, they made that run without you. And he's like, yeah, but still. I'm just like, who says no? Hero for Harden. I would do it if I were Philly.

I mean, but again, who are you asking here? To me, I'm trying to get, if I'm trying to get Harden from Miami, that's Lowry for Harden. And I'll throw in something else. Good luck. No, but I'm not giving up. Lowry and Robinson? I'm just not giving up Hero for one year of James Harden from Miami, that's Lowry for Harden. And I'll throw in something else. Good luck. No, but I'm not giving up. Lowry and Robinson? I'm just not giving up here for one year of James Harden. Here's what sucks for Miami, is they spend all summer thinking this was going to happen,

but although I don't think it to the level of like, clearly when the July conversation happens at Summer League where they're not even close. And, you know, on the initial conversation. But by the way, it was late June. It wasn't even July where they think Dame is headed their way way probably starting around the draft yeah for the draft but then june 28th but there's like a couple different times in the timeline there where then they're like they met in vegas and then it was like wait you're asking for bam again because i always felt like hey don't there was a bunch of miami stuff after the fact of like oh well they weren't serious they

were asking for bam like have you ever heard about a Daryl Morey trade rumor request? Like a lot of these guys, this is how they operate. They start there. Now, if Portland had its own motivation to not want to do it, you know, we've already been over this a million times, but the backcourt situation for them, look, it's an over for me. They, they mailed it in last year and got to 44 wins. Okay. So that's the number and it's the division. And so you're like, look, Butler is older. I think Lowry's kind of close to toast. I mean, he had a couple nice playoff moments.

But, I mean, what are you really penciling in there? Because they did all this waiting. And, you know, again, I don't know at what point they realized they were probably out of it. They missed out on other options. And then, you know, Struis is gone. Vincent is gone. They can replace Struis with Robinson. Struis was nice for him.

I know he was. But I mean, I'm tapering to replace him. Sure, but there's a reason why Struis was playing over him because Duncan felt like somebody that could be targeted despite when he does have it going offensively. Like he had some really nice possessions for him last year. So look, it's an over for me, but I'm not going to beat myself over the head

saying I have to put them as a tier one East team with the other teams up there. I love the chip on the shoulder, not just with Hero, but with this whole team where it was like, they didn't get Dame, throw them in the fucking dumpster. And I think they thrive on that and they care about it.

And I'm just not writing them off. I'm not. The single biggest factor for me is bolstra yeah we just took a you know a two-month tour with that dude we just watched him do it yes right in our face for two months so yeah would you all right so say they had gotten dame that means milwaukee's the same it means b Boston's the same. Who would you pick to win the East? What do they get? So if it's Lowry and picks and they turn that into Dame? No, Hero.

Hero. I'm sorry. Hero and picks. Yeah. They do the deal that everybody in Miami. The problem is the deal wasn't perfect because they still needed a match to Dame number. And the part everybody forgets with Portland when they talk about what they got back, they wanted to get rid of Nurkic. That was part of it.

So it was Dame plus Nurkic was like 68 million. Well, it also made zero sense for Sharp, Simon, and Scoot to be closing a game with Hero. Right. But I'm just saying in a vacuum, like Miami would have had to take Nurkic back in the trade with Dame. All right. Which means they would have to do Hero and Lowry and Jovich

and all their picks. Which they could have figured out a way to do. But I'm just saying like if Miami has Dame and whatever pieces around it. I probably would have. I probably would have.

Still pick Milwaukee or Boston? Yeah. Me too. Yeah. Because I think the stuff they would have had to give up, I'm not positive that would have had to give up I'm not positive that would have cemented it

but who knows we'll still hear from Miami this year because they still have their picks they have that Lowry expiring which they can get

a whole bunch of things back I think this is a possible Harden team we'll see how it goes also I'm not ruling out Donovan Mitchell for this team interesting I think this is a possible hardened team. We'll see how it goes. Also, I'm not ruling out Donovan Mitchell for this team. Interesting. I'm just not.

I would add to that, like once they'd missed out on Dame and then it was like this list of all these players Riley couldn't get, I felt like that was getting a little unfair. It's like, well, because... Riley got LeBron and Wade in the same summer. Riley pulled off Jimmy Butler, and I'm still trying to figure. Bradley pulled off Jimmy Butler, and I'm still trying to figure out how he got Jimmy Butler, for Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside

and a couple picks. Like, how the fuck did that even happen? Mitchell for a hero and a bunch of picks. If the Mitchell thing goes sideways, I still feel like it's sitting there. The Atlanta Hawks. 41 and a half plus 220 for the division. 49 to one to be the one seed. That seems tough. Minus 200 for the playoffs. They were 41 and 41 last year and Vegas is, we're only going to spot them a half game.

House, what are your thoughts? This is one of my favorite overs of the entire upcoming season. And all of it is because of the respect that I have for Quinn Snyder. We had a conversation earlier today. Why do we think that quinn snyder chose this situation rather than waiting and seeing what other kind of opportunities came up and his wife loved atlanta well this like loved it it's literally the answer right that's the answer it makes more sense than the other answers that would be basketball related but happy wife happy life um it's like when kyle opens a bar in poughkeepsie same thing

she loved it there kyle if you do that i'm honestly gonna kill you anyway house do i over a great thing about bar ownership is that when you can finally afford one you're like i shouldn't do this i'm too old. Wait, how late are these nights? You've learned. It's a bad investment. The Z tapes are even light the last couple Sundays. Speaking of bad investment, do we believe that Quinn Snyder can make Murray and Trey Young work? So you haven't committed to an over and under yet?

I said it the opposite. It's one of my favorite overs on the entire board. And I love the idea of them, you know, potentially at those odds winning the division. Because, you know, something could go south with that Miami situation. And Atlanta is well poised to fill in there. Getting rid of John Collins was addition by subtraction. Yeah, they had too many guys and they had to fix the minutes. What do you have, Russillo?

I like the over here and I feel good about it. You know, I think they were kind of a mess again last year. Look, I've covered all my Hawks thoughts. Yeah. But I think they should be good enough

to get 42 wins in this conference. So that's kind of what it comes down to i mean hell the playoffs seem to be different because trey will have these moments where he's still going to scare you a little bit now i think we've learned that whether it was the boston series last year or new york but uh i don't know there's there's some weird numbers you go through it like trey and murray on the floor together is like only a positive like 1.6 points better than the opposition pro 100 and you're like hey that's supposed to be a bigger number with those two guys

and then the way they would try to split them up like i kept watching all the different stuff all i think is like you know hunter's gonna be a little bit better maybe a little bit more jalen johnson maybe a little more sadiq bay maybe not having colin sit in the corner and miss shots like that ended up being a salary dump man after all the years of what they could possibly get for him. Legitimate salary dump. I think Quinn and the talent level, because I have the talent on the team, that should be 42 wins for the Atlanta Hawks.

So I think this is my single favorite over of all 30. I've wagered on it. I like them for the division at plus 220 I think they're gonna be a top four seed and I just really like the spot for them because I think

the regular season Boston Milwaukee Miami or Boston Milwaukee Philly I think Boston Boston

Milwaukee Cleveland Cleveland Atlanta four wow so you'll have Atlanta over the Knicks Miami and Philly yeah I think Boston, Milwaukee, Cleveland. Cleveland. Atlanta, four. Wow. So you'll have Atlanta over the Knicks, Miami, and Philly. Yeah.

Well, it makes sense on your over-unders. I think they're this year's Sacramento, where I just think they're going to be a really good regular season team. The Quinn Snyder thing, even in the Boston series, you could feel it. Because Boston fucking killed them in the first two games. Those last three games were good games and they tested Boston and they exposed some things that I think, you know,

came back to haunt the Celtics in the next couple rounds. But getting rid of Collins, who I like, was important because they had too many guys and nobody was happy. The Capella-Kangu combo, that's a real fucking center combo.

Those guys play together. They're like 22 and 19 a game. Like they, you know, they have, I think they overwhelmed Miami in that playing game. Hunter, we'll see. Maybe it's A.J. Griffin in that wing spot. Maybe A.J. Griffin's even a better bet. I still like the Bogdanovich as the third guard

with these guys. And from Trey, this is like a... You know, he takes a lot of shit. I could see him having a huge year. I think this could be a hard team to play. We already know he can put up massive stats. But it's going to have to feel like... But can you not go...

I think the most they've ever won was 43. They had that run in the playoffs. I like this team, and the Quinn Steiner thing is the number one reason for me because I just don't think they had good coaching. I don't think Lloyd Pierce was a good coach. I don't think Nate McMillan was a good coach. I think Nate McMillan was better than Lloyd Pierce,

who was terrible. But for the most part, this team just always looked like a mess to me. Maybe, but I also know this team loved going to the media telling everybody it was the coach's fault too. That's true. So from a Trey standpoint, this feels like a fork in the road for him in a lot of ways this season.

I know he's young. I know he's got years ahead of him, but you get to the point where you start developing bad habits as a player. And if you're just a good stats, mediocre team guy, you kind of just end up that way. You know, he's been in the league since 2018. So what are you? Can you make other guys better? Is it just everything has to be built around you?

How do you measure success? I just think this team's going to rise to the occasion. I like their rebounding. I like Bay on this team too. So you think he, he figures out how to be the guy where it's not just the numbers where it's like everybody's. Yeah.

Like pick your spots. And that's where like somebody like Quinn Snyder, I think could really help him. Right. Sometimes it's not great for us. If you take 31 shots, right. I know you had 40 tonight, but you know, uh, this and this and this didn't happen. Maybe the, the, you know,

Patty mills doing some veteran stewardship. I'll tell you another thing for the chalkboard for the whiteboard for Atlanta. I wanted my big fan to a boost this year, which I've won the last two years. I wanted it to be Celtics 50 plus wins, Lakers 45 plus wins, and Atlanta 40 plus wins. And it's like the way it gets boosted would be around plus 250 when we end up doing it. And they asked if I could replace Atlanta

with OKC because they said Atlanta was not a popular team with the betting public. Put that on your whiteboard, Atlanta. They're like, put OKC in there. OKC is a little more lovable. People don't want to bet on Atlanta. That was an actual gambling take from FanDuel.

Well, it's their book, so it's their number. So you can't blame them. They just said Atlanta. People are like, eh. I feel like they know it. Tiny juice on the over. Minus 112 on the over. All right.

We're all going over on Atlanta. That's definitely going to be a lock for me. Well, now it gets interesting. Well, we have three teams left. You know what? Actually, let's do Charlotte first, and then we'll finish with Orlando and Washington. I thought you said it gets interesting.

Well, that's right. But I'm going to get Charlotte out of the way. Charlotte's over-under is 31 and a half. No Kai Jones. So Kai Jones is gone. Gone. And the over-under

did not move. Has anyone ever requested a trade and then been cut? How about 30 for 30 about the Kai Jones book night draft? The 11th and 19th picks just oh and two i like book night i knew kai jones it was limited but like his journey over the last couple months

was fascinating leave it at that the number didn't move i predict his social media presence to maybe be even a little more extensive than it's been. So starting five of this team looks fine. LaMelo, Rozier, Brandon Miller, PJ Washington, and Williams. It's like, all right, that's solid on paper. The bench, it falls off a quiff. Hayward's probably their best bench guy. This was a violent under for me. And then it's been a sexy analytics team. Pretty much everybody is saying

over for this. So the over 31 and a half, I just don't personally see it. What do you think house? I'm on the over. And I think it's because last season I I'm treating as a, as an aberration. They're 27 and 55 and LaMelo missed at least half the season. I think that they're the team, you know, a couple years ago that, what did they win? 43 wins in 2021-22 and then 38 wins. Yeah, I forgot to mention the Bridges coming back. So you could say four of the five starters from the 43-win team

from two years ago are back. But the conference was also worse two years ago. Right, because when you go, all right, LaMelo played 36, Hayward played 50. Although, what do you really pencil that in? Pencil the 50 in every year for Hayward. That's true. Bridges played zero.

You're like, wait. But if you go back to two years ago and they won 43, I thought that was one of the most impressive seasons anyone had in the league. Yeah, you were saying that at the time. You were like, this team is the all-time overachieved. This is a 25-win team. They're in all these games in the fourth quarter. That why like i just thought it was like of course jordan would be like oh borrego we gotta move on like do you realize what this guy has helped you do and you

know lamello playing 70 games means what i mean he has been statistically better than i thought he'd be he's more fun he's he's in a weird lane where he's like a rock star of a player because of the way he plays and the personality and the youth. And the social media pieces of it. The mellow ball is a problem. Hashtag problem.

But clearly, there needs to be something else to his game to round out wins or losses here. And he's, he's kind of avoided all this stuff. Like he's gotten all the good parts. Yeah.

But I think a lot of appalling playmaking at the end of games. Like appalling. I don't, I don't know. Like I imagine him being around for the full season. It's weird. Cause for me, the first time I was like,

Oh my God, it's a 30. And then I started digging into it a little bit more. I was like, am I actually going to say over for the Hornets and i'm not the miles bridges piece too where he's gonna be playing again and it's gonna every he's gonna go in every city and there's gonna be a big story in the newspaper and it's gonna be a sports radio thing and i don't know players that can go either way with how it affects people i think so that's 50 50 to me because i don't on him i don't

think anybody gives a shit about the charlotte hornets well that might be true they're not coming to town and there's a story about this this guy he hasn't played in two years and um he's going to be one of the most villainized guys in the league and how that affects him i guess we'll see just talk about it from gambling purposes i understand um i bet it hard when it was at 30 and a half it's at the book right now at 31 and a half. It's still an over for me. I think they have seven.

Why didn't you tell me? I would have talked you out of this. No, no, no. I think they have seven guys that can play. And 30 is such a low bar. For them to hit this, Brandon Miller has got to be good immediately. So, Rosillo, I defer to you. Well.

Because I think that's the way they hit it. Like, yeah, right. That's exactly. He's like legit good. Like even like a little. That's exactly... He's, like, legit good. Like, even, like, a little better than Keegan Murray last year in the Kings. And I think he's going to be really good. Well, so then maybe they hit it.

But by the way, Bridges played in 21-22. He played 80 games, and he was awesome. He was 20 points a game. Yeah, 27-4. Yeah. The season he missed was last season. He didn't miss two seasons. Yeah, he's been 35% from three first careers. He's going to make $40 million a year. All right, season he missed was last season. He didn't miss two seasons. Yeah.

He's been 35% from three. He's going to make $40 million a year. All right. So you guys are going over? I think I just switched it to over. I'm definitely over. I just did it. I'm going under.

I just can't live with myself otherwise. All right. Now it gets fun. The Orlando Magic. Steve Cerruti in the house for this. He flew cross-country just so we can talk to him about the Orlando Magic over, under of 37.5. That's not the only reason he flew cross-country.

We also wanted to see him. Wanted to feed him. Plus 900 for the division. Just mentioning that. Plus 172 for the playoffs. Last year, they were 34 and 48. And House, it's only four more wins and they hit the over.

What do you got? I'm not just saying this because Rudy's sitting here. I like the over. Okay. I like this team. All right. This is also one of these ones where their best player just was on a massive stage. Both of them.

They're two best players. Sure, sure. Yeah. One's better than the other, though. Franz. Franz is better. Sure, sure. Yeah. One's better than the other, though. Franz? Franz is better. Yeah, Franz is better. There's no argument, right?

Right now. I think Paolo's going to be awesome. He's going to be awesome. Franz is better right now. Paolo's 20 years old. Yeah, that's part of the thesis for why there's a leap still for Paolo. Yeah. And he got that time. He was on that stage. Well, we found out in the World Championships

that him as a five is the destiny of Paolo, but that's probably two, three years away with the muscle and stuff. Rossello, what do you got for this 37 and a half? Because they're still so young, I was like, wait. Can you get 38, 39 wins out of

this team? But you know what? I started thinking about it. Like if I'm that high on Palo, like the second year guys that are special, like that's kind of when it happens. And they played so many teams so tough and they still didn't really know what the rotation is. And I think they may just collectively be like, Hey, we know we drafted a lot of you guys. And again, that's sort of the Anthony black sucks, calling Anthony Markel faults, like who's getting the opportunity. I don't like the Howard pick at all,

but Franz and Paolo are that good. They just are. And so I was going to say, I was going to say under, but I'm going over. I was leaning toward under, as I told Saruti before the podcast, but I have too many unders.

And at 37 and a half, I need one more over. If they were 30 wins, I go, man, that's a pretty big leap. Like, think about all the times you were watching them late in the year. We're like, they figured something out here. You and I were talking during the year. We were saying, man, if there's one team that's better than their record, it's probably Orlando. They had big wins against good teams.

They lost some last-second games. It worries me with the guards because you have— But they might just say, screw it, and be like, we're done pretending that this is an equal opportunity position thing this many years in years i think that would be smart sugs anthony anthony black and faults and faults is in a contract here and i actually like what i saw from faults last year i think faults so rudy's the faults is good guy and he's been right about it for a long time and jonathan isaac potentially coming back. I'm going to go over only because I think those

two guys are going to play for six months and give a shit the whole time and be in games and have a couple nice big wins. It just worries me. It looks a little too obvious. I think we won. We picked the over last year, didn't we? We did.

We hit it. We hit it. We loved Orlando last year. So, this is a Palo Franz bet. I also really like Franz for most improved because I think that could... No, insulting that is a sorority.

No, I'm... Remember SGA won that year when he jumped to like 27 points a game? And he was already good, but then he had that stat jump. Right. And could Franz have a stat jump?

Like that? I don't know. You'd have to be the only guy and have the ball every time. His most improved odds, I think, the only reason I liked it was because they were pretty high. Yeah, he's 30 to 1 for most improved. I could see it. All right, Cerruti, what do you got? I mean, they started 5-20 last year.

That was mostly because... 5-20? 5-20. And that was mostly because Fultz was out, and they were like, hey, Franz and Paolo run the show, and they weren't really ready to do it. They finished 29-28. I mean, that's on pace to be the 6th seed, the 7th seed. And the conference is worse.

I think that middle area is a little bit... because that middle area is a little bit because it's that middle area is dense there's a lot of teams that are kind of the same the pacers are in there i mean their their best case scenario is like maybe brooklyn uh chicago maybe toronto two of those teams maybe just drop off and they get into the plan i mean their number is higher than toronto's number yeah the issue is they still struggle to score and they they still don't, I mean, I've been saying this since 2010, it feels like, they just don't have enough shooting, and they, I don't, maybe Jed Howard solves that.

People didn't like that pick. I don't know. I'll wait to see what it's like. The number seems right. 37.5 seems right around where they'd win, but, I mean, every play-in team last year had 40 wins. So, I think it's more likely they win 40 games than it is they win, like, 33. So, I, you know, I think it's more likely they win 40 games than this.

They win like 33. So I, I, you know, I'm a, I'm biased, but I would, I would lean over.

There's a piece of it where I just want to root for it because I know I'm going to love this team as a league pass team. It'll be a top five for me. And I don't want to be in the back of my head rooting for the under, but I believe in the Franz Palo combo, just being a bitch to play over the course of six months. Because we're going to have that mid-season tournament in December, and somebody weird is going to end up in there out of the eight.

And it's going to be a team like this that just has two young players. And I think the cool thing, too, is those guys are willing teammates. Like, they've already gotten past the stuff that maybe frustrates me with other young guys, where the only way they think they can contribute is by shooting i don't i don't feel like i'm betraying steve kurt he he was so impressed by paulo and just thought the guy's gonna be a beast i mean he probably said that publicly but i think that whole coaching staff was like, Jesus, holy mackerel. Like, what is this guy going to be?

They all think he's going to be a five. I don't know how many years down the road it is. But when you think like he can't even legally drink yet, what's he going to look like down the road? The beating people off the dribble stuff last year from him was just breathtaking. We talked about it a lot. There's going to be a physicality in him as he gets bigger and as he puts on muscle. And then the Franz piece, I don't know

how good that guy can be, but he would be on the short list of who can jump up and suddenly become an all-star. The stuff he was doing, I know it's the World Championships, but the stuff he was doing was really high level. They were running everything through him. The poise point is the thing.

And then that's what, you know, Cerruti's observation about how that team had a winning record for a sustained run. That's because Franz Wagner has the poise. They're going to rebound too. The shooting is going to be the issue.

And, you know, to me it's more likely somebody like Suggs is just all of a sudden better than he was last year. Fultz in a contract year, whatever it is. So we're all going over. We're going over. So, Rudy, you're like too afraid to go over. What could go wrong? I think the number's really right.

Okay. Well, the number's really right for our last team of the preview, the Wizards of Washington. 23 and a half. Last year, they were 35 and 47. They are 13 to one to make the playoffs house. Here's the starting five, as far as I could tell. Tyus Jones, who's just on eBay right now. Just like, does anyone want to trade for a point guard

who's been in some big games? Jordan Poole, who Kevin Garnett unironically asked could he be used like James Harden on Houston? It was an actual podcast moment.

Corey Kispert, who has some nice shooting percentages. Kyle Kuzma just got paid in Gafford. This team is awful house. Why do you think they can go over?

Because this team is not any worse than the team that the Washington franchise put on the floor last season. Talent-wise, this team, I would argue... The 35-win last year team. That's right. That team had poor Zingas scoring 23 a game. Well, and Beal.

Kuzma, they had 40 games of Beal last season. So, part of Haas' premise is Poole can replace a lot of the Beal stats. He can replace all of them. He'll certainly replace the field goal attempts. Kuzma was the guy who got the touches at the end of the game, not Porzingis. And that was proper.

Winning recipe there. He's a lot more... The problem... The reason that I love this is because 23 and a half is so low yeah so you they have three guys that are professional guys that are auditioning for their next situation tyus jones jordan pool kyle kuzma they're not motivated big three they're not motivated to go stink though they're like competent they're not motivated. The big three. They're not motivated to go stink, though. They're, like, competent. They're not incompetent. And DeLon Wright is going to be a tremendous asset for somebody.

Look at that guy's advanced metrics. Haral Babo has loved him. He gets his hands on balls, you know, better than a Kardashian. It's an amazing skill set. He's tremendous at this. Don't sleep on my guy Kulibali. Bilal Kulibali. They actually I think this new regime in

Washington hit a draft pick. This dude is crazy long, has tremendous poise. He played with Wemby all year last year. He's not afraid of nothing. He thinks he belongs on a professional basketball court. There is some quotes coming out about him from the players and coaches

that are reminiscent of the Baby Rhino stuff with Jalen Carter and the Eagles. Sure. Where the teammates are like, this guy, Jesus. Holy mackerel. They suck, dude. They suck. They do suck. Don't misunderstand.

24 wins is a W, though. 24 wins. House, you're not getting a 20. Here's the reason. You won't misunderstand. 24 wins is a W, though. 24 wins. You're not getting a 20. Here's the reason. You won't get to 20 wins. They will start tanking at the trade deadline when most of these guys are gone. They're going to go like 2 for 28. But there are 55 games between the start of the season

and the trade deadline. So if they win 20... This is the first time I've ever been worried about you as a Washington basketball fan. If they go 20 and 30 through the first 50 games, why can't they? Because they're not good. They don't have any. There's not even like a possible all-star in this team house. Well, Jordan Poole begs to differ.

And he's going to show you. What are you talking about? Jordan Poole is going to show you that he's got, he was just, they were holding back. Steve Kerr and Draymond were holding back in Golden State. I actually think Jordan Poole, now that Dinwiddie looks like he's not going to have the ball enough, Jordan Poole is going to be our number one,

his teammates hate playing with him guy. That's my prediction. I liked it. I read an article on Hoops Hype that Danilo Gallinari said he couldn't wait to play the Celtics oh revenge game with Gallo

what are you mad about yeah they did tell him that he was staying how about Johnny Davis you didn't mention him he's unmentionable how's

you missed on like five straight first round picks until Koulibaly it's a whole new thing we don't even know that that's a hit yet but You missed on like five straight first round picks until Kulibaly. It's a whole new thing. We don't even know that that's a hit yet. But I'm just at least giving it a do not know.

Kispert. I kind of like Kispert, but didn't they take him like ninth? Took him too high. Yeah. He can shoot though. Rosillo, is this 2024 stealth trade machine team? Feels like there's going to be a lot of trade machine action with this team. Yeah, but I don't know, like, what do I want?

I don't want Poole's contract, and I don't know that I want Poole in a me-against-the-world Tupac season. You know? That's the other part of it. I know, I know. And Koulibaly's going to do whatever he wants to do, so based on watching him play. I like Gafford.

Kuzma's actually been pretty good for him you know and he got paid and maybe there's something there but yeah i think a lot of teams will call about tyus jones um i think pool's on the team the whole season just for the record i think i think that contract yeah yeah he if he plays really well though and his shooting percentages are are close to what because he shoots Then keep him. Right, we keep him. And maybe he's either a cornerstone

piece as you grow or I hate to break it to you you're keeping him either way. No, his contract is going to look good in a year.

If he's a cornerstone you're keeping him. If he's not a cornerstone you're not going to be able to trade him. I think they are going to be able to trade him. The three people in your life for the next few years

are your wife, your son, and Jordan Poole. That's how it's going to play out. And maybe me. He can have Chipotle. We like Chipotle at the House household. I just don't see it. I'm going hard under. You're locking it?

Fine. Go ahead. I just think they get the pole position in the lottery with this team. possible lock possible lock fine go ahead I don't think I'd lock it they get the pole position in the lottery with this team I don't see a worse team there's too many professional players

they're over under it's four wins you're comparing it to like Hinkie Sixers experiments I think that's

what's throwing you off here they're better than the Spurs they're going to be more competitive than Portland House you're over under is four wins lower than every other team in the league you off here. They're better than the Spurs. They're going to be more competitive than Portland. House, your over-under is four wins lower

than every other team in the league. I think that's a mispricing. This is fascinating now. We've got some serious Wizards takes. Usually he's realistic with the Wizards too. I also, yeah,

I think the other thing is that Something's going on with House. They, you're wrong. There's nothing here that's core. There's nothing here that's like, hey, you know, even with Wemba Nyama, San Antonio, even last year when they were tanking, they were still running stuff offensively. They were like doing things. Yeah.

I think Detroit actually planned on being a lot better than they were last year. But then Cade goes down for the, there's not one guy in this Wizards roster where I think they're going to be like, well, we got to make sure we set the standard immediately, even though it's a really good front office. Who's your coach, Az? Untold Junior. Did you have to check? No, I knew it was,

I wanted to make sure I didn't say Bickerstaff because we had a long run with Bickerstaff. He's the other worst coach in the East. Wes Untold Junior is the worst coach in the East. And then Bick. He's the other worst coach in the East. Wes Unseld Jr. is the worst coach in the East. And then Bickerstaff is the second worst coach in the East.

All right, I'm going to recap our over-unders. And then we're going to do locks. Celtics, 54.5. We all went over. Sixers, 47.5. All went under. Knicks, 45.5. Three overs.

Nets, 37.5. All under. Toronto, 36.5., three overs. Nets, 37 and a half, all under. Toronto, 36 and a half. I went over. House went over. Rosillo under. Miami Heat, I went over. What did you do on that one?

I didn't write it down, Rosillo. Over. And you're over as well? Yes. Okay. Three overs for the Heat. Then the Atlanta Hawks, we were kind of giddy about them. Three overs.

Orlando Magic, 37.5. Three overs, but I think probably because Cerruti was here. If Cerruti wasn't, there's an alternate universe where Cerruti's not here and maybe we're arguing more about the Magic, but that's fine. I did change my mind on it. That's fine. Charlotte, 31.5. Russell and House went over.

I went under. I don't feel great about it. I don't feel and House went over. I went under. I don't feel great about it. I don't feel great about the over. Yeah. I just wish they went in the league. Washington, 23 and a half. Lock. Under for me and Rosillo.

Over for House. So there you go. All right. It's time for the locks. House, what do you have for locks out of the the 30 teams how many are we doing what's the right you can do one you can do three you can do five i'm probably doing six you're doing six my god well i did seven last year i think i went six and one i'm good at these my locks. Best there ever is, man. One of the best. Uh,

Atlanta over is a lock for me. Is that a lock for you, Russillo? Not a lock. Okay. Let's not lose our minds here. Oh, well,

it's a lock for me and it might be one of my favorites. What else, House? Um, I can't, I can't do

the, the, um, Hornets, but I really want to do it. But I'm not going to do it. Just do it, you wuss. I'm not going to do it. Do it, you coward. I love the Pacers. The Pacers is a lock for me.

Okay. They're a lock for me as well. Add me to the list. We love some Pacers basketball on this podcast. All right, Tyrese. That was my favorite one. It's a good one. It's too low.

It's too low. We're all in agreement. It's too low. How's? Who else? I am on the sun's under. That's a lock for me. Oh.

I'm not. I mean, we did it last year. Eddie makes fun of the podcast for it. It's fine. I'm going to do... I'm not going to do a lock. I really like that under, though, for them. Phoenix?

Yeah. Yeah, I think it's good. It's really good, but I'm not going to lock it because I don't feel as strongly about it as the other ones, but I really like that one. All right, what else, House? I'm only going to do four. It's the Clippers can forever fuck off lock of the year the clippers is it locked under for me okay rossillo uh denver over lock okay 52 and a half new orleans over

lock 44 and a half uh Pacers over. Yep. And I'm just staying positive here. Miami over. Okay. And then Dallas over. No unders. I don't want to be negative. Dallas over. That's amazing. Positive guy. You're up to something. How many did you just do?

You did five. I wanted to add one more. Okay. Boston over. I do believe in Bostonoston i looking down at my notes i left it off boston over i love the boston over i'm just stupefied by dallas for you rusillo so you're saying you're saying kairi's gonna have a normal season no no i've never guaranteed that i just think it's just a blind luca bet it It would be a blind Luca kind of like everything they did around it. And he comes in more motivated than ever before after last season being that disappointing.

My locks are weird. They have, I think all overs Lakers over 47 and a half Oklahoma city over 44 and a half. I'm really jealous of houses Phoenix under, but I'm not going to do it. I am going to do under for Portland at 27 and a half, because I think that team is built to not be good this year. I have the Atlanta over 41 and a half.

I have the Miami chip on their shoulder over 44 and a half us against the world. Fuck you. 45 and 37 season. I also have the Indiana over 38 and a half and I would have had the Philly, but it dropped enough that I don't feel like it's a lot. Cause if in B just plays, they were so good last year that there there's a world where they figure their

shit out. Maxi, even if hard. year that there's a world where they figure their shit out. Maxi, even if Harden's thrown around. That's a stay away to me. I really want to do Washington as an under lock. Should we just do that as a fuck you to house? Yeah, put me down. I'm down too. I did not give my Washington pick

as a lock. Me and Russell are under 23 and a half lock. Fine. The Wizards. It's fine. Every W I'm sending you. I'm going to create a Twitter X handle for it. That's it for the special three-part over-under extravaganza.

That was really fun. We kept good time. Rassil stayed engaged. He's still not coming to dinner. Kyle stayed awake. And that's it. Thank you so much to Steve Cerruti for flying out for us. Thanks to Ryan Rusillo as well.

And don't forget to listen to the Ryan Rusillo podcast. Don't forget to listen to Joe House and the Mayor of Gambling Show on Fairway Rolling. I will see you on this feed on Thursday. Must be 21 plus and president select states. I never once said I don't have to. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fanduel.com slash RG

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