The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Over/Unders: The West! With Ryen Russillo and Joe House | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode Date: October 18, 2019

HBO and The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo and Joe House for the annual NBA over/unders podcast. They make their picks for win totals in the Western Conference for the 2019-20 season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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by the Ryan Rosillo podcast where... Ryan Rosillo show or podcast? What did we decide? Podcast. Yeah, podcast. I'm just worried. Do you think DC is going to have

championship fatigue after the Mystics? And the Caps. Exactly. Because I saw some people from DC calling it Titletown and City of Champions. Oh, no.

Caps Mystics? Oh, no. City of Champions. I like it. Just keep us posted. You're a guy Caps Mystics? Oh, no. City of Champions. I like it. Just keep us posted. You're a guy. Your feet are on the ground there. The Ryan Rosillo Podcast,

Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Mondays is with Chris Long. Wednesdays is Weird Wednesdays. Yeah, we went weird. Malaysian Economic Con this past Wednesday. Great. And then Friday is going to be a combination of some sort of sport.

Football, basketball, maybe some baseball. Probably not a ton of baseball. We have our hot stove countdown, though. Some Kershaw psychology. And then Joe House, you can listen to House of Carbs. Fairway Rowland is on hiatus along with the golf season, but he's coming back strong. Coming up, part one, NBA over-unders, the West.

First, Pearl Jam. All right. Joe House is on the line from DC. We have been doing NBA over-unders this entire decade. I think this dates back to maybe even before Grantland. I can't remember an October where we didn't do this. I know there were Octobers when we didn't do this. And then Ryan Rossella, we invited as a special guest. Part two of this podcast will be the Eastern Conference

and you can hear that on the Ryan Rosillo podcast, not this one. So if you like this gimmick, which I know you do, and if you want to hear part two, go to the Rosillo podcast and there's where part two will be. House, how are you feeling? Are you studied?

Are you ready? I'm all over this. I'm ready. I mean, I had to divide my brain into a few different compartments. You know, we have a World Series awaiting us here in Washington, D.C., so I've got my baseball brain on, my NFL gambling brain. I turned that off last week because we did terribly.

But here we are. It's basketball time. Time to turn on the basketball brain. I have an over-under before we get started here for you guys. What do you think the over-under will be on the number of times that I call nephew Kyle a c*** on this podcast today? What's that over-under? Come on. This is a harsh show.

The guy came from a Halloween party last night. He's hungover. Now he's got to write down every edit. I was going to forward this to some of my friend's kids. I can't do it. We're bleeping it. That's a mistake. Rosillo, you're not a huge gambling guy. I used to be really

into it. The over-under thing though, isn't it funny how you look at these numbers and you're like, man, that's close. That's right where it should be. Like House just said, people are like tweeting about preseason and everything. You go like, I have an entire,

I'm trying to keep track of like 60, 70 college football teams on top of all the NFL stuff. So once I just dove into it and you'll sit there and be like, okay, I think this team could, and then the Vegas number comes out and you're like,

I can't figure out what to do. I can't figure out what to do. They're like within a half a game of what I thought it would be. And there's just so many tough numbers in here, but there's going to be a theme. and i know we're going to go through this whole thing but it's not just about hey is this team good or is this team bad i actually think

these become more harder or more difficult to predict because of not knowing kind of what what's the plan going to be for some of these teams especially in the west like the load management all that stuff right or is this team like a team that has some BS going on? Or is this a team that's going to show up and kind of do one of those max versions of themselves like those Atlanta Hawks teams a couple years ago? Yeah. Where there was no nonsense with the team. They may not have been special, but you knew they were going to play hard every single night. House, we're doing the West first.

In my opinion, the West has 11 teams that could make the playoffs. And I am including Sacramento as one of the 11, even though I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but I think you could make a case. To come up with eight, we have to knock some teams out. So if you're just looking at last year's eight playoff teams, who are you knocking out? If give me two teams that you think, all right, I need to make room for these other teams. I like I'm knocking out these two. Who are the two in your head right now before we start?

Isn't the low hanging fruit, fruit, Oklahoma city and San Antonio. Aren't those the most logical step backwards teams? Well, we can have the conversation now and then get to their over-under later, but some would argue Golden State should be in this conversation as well. What is your feeling on that, Russillo? Because I don't think we see Clay this year.

I don't either. I don't know if that's based on people you've talked to, but I know the conversations I've had leading up to all of this. The Golden State plan, if we're doing this right now, let's just do it.

The Golden State plan, as far as I understand, is, hey, we're just going to start the season. Okay Golden State plan, if we're doing this right now, let's just do it. The Golden State plan, as far as I understand, is, hey, we're just going to start the season, okay? See what it looks like. It's not going to be riding Stefan to the ground. D'Angelo Russell's going

to get a ton of shots. Draymond's going to start getting shots like he got a couple years ago. And then, you know, after 30, 40 games, see what you have. But I don't think, Clay,

I agree with you. I don't think this team wants to rush him back based on everything they just went through perception-wise with the Durant thing. And they may look at the end of the year,

towards the end of the year, and say, hey, you know, we're closer to the 4-5 in this because of the way things shook out and some other teams at the top of the West taking time off. And maybe there's an injury in the first round that makes us think maybe Klay should come back. But I don't think they're trading Russell.

It's a new building, so they're not tanking. So I've heard total extremes on Golden State that they have a chance to still come out of the West, which I'm not sure I believe, or that they're not tanking. So I've heard total extremes on Golden State that they have a chance to still come out of the West, which I'm not sure I believe, or that they're going to shut it down. I think they're just going to do the boring thing, the patient thing, and just roll it out

and see what the team looks like. We did this with Porzingis last year. Torn ACL. Oh, he could be back, you know, November, December, and he ended up missing a year and a half for some reason because Adrian Peterson and Julian Edelman came back in like basically eight, nine months stupid. And Wes Welker came back. And I think football is a little different though, because it's grass, it's cleats, all this stuff, the pounding and basketball clay's injury happened in mid June.

They're saying like, if you talk to anybody with the Warriors, realistically, we're targeting early April. Early April is the end of the season. So you're going to rush him back. He's going to have this giant knee brace on. And you're going to be playing in the playoffs, basically? It doesn't really make any sense. In the playoffs as a seventh seed.

So you're round one. It's like, hey, Clay, hurry back. We're about to get our asses kicked by the Clippers. I don't think it's worth it. And I also think they have all their tickets paid for. This is, you know, after five straight years of just being in the spotlight, tornado championship, just eight, nine month seasons year after year. This is kind of a break year for them in some ways. House, do you see urgency to bring Clay

back? Cause I do not. No, I don't see any urgency at all but we need uh the input of a medical doctor here because we we the three of us us dummies can't properly assess the true nature of clay's acl tear um without you know input of, of somebody that actually knows how severe it was, what the impact on the other, uh, ligaments around that ACL were like, every ACL is not the same and every athlete's not the same. I mean, if he can in the ordinary course, come back in April and they're around a seven seed and he's, um, just in sort of a regular patient way ready to play basketball, then he should come back and play and

they have every bit of chance of being you know, they can make it to the West Coast Finals no problem. Well, I think there are problems and we can either we can start with the Warriors right now with their over-under or we can wait till we get to that division. Here's the thing. We can start with the Warriors right now if they're over under or we can wait till we get to that division. Here's the thing.

We do have recent basketball history of ACL tears. I'll just read you some of the guys that have had them. Christophe Porzingis missed a year and a half. By the way, when I was doing the Mavs stuff last night, I'm like, wait a minute. That's right. He hasn't played in two years. This was in the beginning of 2018 when he blew

out his ACL. And he had 20 great games. Under! Under! Under! Under for Dallas. I got scared there. Jabari Parker was never really the same after the second one. You saw him as less of an athlete? He definitely couldn't go sideways.

Zach Levine came back, but it really took, how long did it take for him? It was at least a year. But I don't feel like he really started to look, you know, like he did last season for a while. There's been some other ones. Jared Jack, Brandon Knight, it happened. I just, I think people are kind of underrating how difficult this injury is. And also, like, mentally, how he's going to feel about coming back and then you mentioned a really key point the warriors medical staff they don't want to rush him back they just

we're in this whole shit storm with the rant last year they're gonna be like ah we feel good about clay we're not positive let's send him out there they're not doing that you had every former nba player that has a job in the media basically going on TV saying the Warriors are like selfish and Bob Myers fake cried. Yeah. You know, so you really think that this whatever whatever all the extremes have been, because that's what's really interesting about the Warriors preseason breakdown of this whole thing is just the extremes of it. When I hear like I I've always enjoyed this team. I love this team. But when I hear somebody say, hey, don't sleep on them, they come out of the West.

I was like, that doesn't really make any sense. And it's like, well, they should just tank and they're going to trade D'Angelo Russell. Well, first they don't want to trade D'Angelo Russell. The way it's been explained to me is okay. Look at D'Angelo Russell. Look how, how much he improved this past year. Look at how young he is. He's still not even 25. He's just over 20 million a year, 23 or something like that. Um, how many guys are we going to get that are that young that are that productive at that price tag? Who are we trading that piece for? And compliments

Steph in a weird way because he's got a funky one-on-one game, doesn't necessarily need a ton of the offense to run through him, all that stuff. Let's do Golden State now because I think where we land on this will free up some wins potentially for other teams.

Their over-under is astonishing to me. It's 48 and a half. They're six to one to win division, seven to one to win the conference, 10 to one to win the title, plus 400 not to make the playoffs. And here's the case for them not making the playoffs. It starts with Klay never coming back. And then you go, all right, who'd they lose defensively? They went 57 games last year. They lost Clay, who was their best perimeter defender. They lost Durant, who is an elite, can switch with anybody, guard both positions when he wants to be. And Iguodala, who, you know, had moved into a different phase of his career, but for 25 minutes a game is an elite defender who knows where to go

and what to do. Here's who they've replaced them with. D'Angelo Russell, subpar. Alphonso McKinney is going to be playing more. Alec Burks, Jordan Poole. I think this team's going to be atrocious defensively, like flat out atrocious because they will not be able to guard any perimeter guy. Basically, they're not going to be able to shut down anybody. And they were already slipping defensively last year when they had all their guys. And some of that is just, Hey,

we know we're really good. We know what we need to do. You're right about Russell. And I just want to clear that up. His average annual salary is like closer to 30 million, um, on that new deal. All their bigs are hurt.

Yeah. Okay. Uh, and one of the worst tweets that we saw from the preseason, which is one of our favorite games is just, you think like a little too early, one preseason, I don't even forget who said it, I'm not even going to say who did it, but it was like, pretty obvious this Warriors bench is suffering.

We're like, no shit. Yeah. No shit. It's terrible. Like, guys are hurt. We just watched it. They had to trade Iguodala and all these other pieces to free up, and I understand, like, when you go big game hunting

as a front office in the NBA, you go, all right, we'll worry about depth later. I mean, that's what all these GMs do. And that's what Golden State did. So they weren't going to worry about their depth, but they certainly don't have it. And even though I'm thrilled they were able to keep a guy like Looney around, I mean, they went with Willie Cauley-Stein. They went Marquise Chris.

I mean, they're worried about dudes even being healthy at the center spot. Marquise Chris, like a historically bad defender defender too. House, 48 and a half seems high. What do you think? It seems high. Just a nice, easy 46 win season. They make the playoffs as like a seven seed. That's the right number. They can't, you know, the conundrum that they're in with Steph and Draymond is both of those guys usage wise, you know playing

kind of outsized roles you know they had that that that KD luxury suite that they all got to live in for a little while open up such a opportunity for them style wise that it doesn't make sense for them to put undue pressure on Steph and Draymond at this stage of where their legacy stands. So I think the under is the right number here. I think there is a scenario. First of all, I think I forget who the team we said house last year. We said one of the teams was going to be setting records for people putting up 60 against them. I think this Golden State team, there's going to be some career highs against them with guards that like the Dame Lillard types.

Devin Booker. Yeah, those kind of guys because they don't have the shutdown person. I also think, I think this is a really worn down franchise. You're talking five straight years, starting with the first season when they won. And even the year before that, they made it to the second round where it's just been year after year. They're just in the grind, in the grind. I don't see them with the eye of the tiger at least the first couple months.

So I'm leaning toward, I got to be honest, I'm leaning toward them not making the playoffs. I think they're a 500 team. But when you start trying to project, okay, who are your eight teams? So we'll go through it. I think there's six locks in the West,

at least what we would think to be locks. Golden State's not one of those. So if they're not one of those, you have to go under 48 and a half. But what I'm not, can I make a prediction here? What I'm not looking forward to, which will happen, is about a, let's give it 20 games. And I think you're right about like how motivated can you be when you've lived the life the last five years?

How are you mentally going to be, the coaching staff and Steph and these guys going, okay, we know we don't even have all of our weapons right now. What's that team going to come out like? Is Steph really a superstar? Conversations on TV and radio shows. That's going to happen. Because it's like, wait a minute, Steph's a top five player.

Shouldn't he be carrying this team? Should he be carrying the team to a top four? My guess is offensively he will have his best season since 2016. I don't know if that. I still don't know if he's going to have that efficiency. Yeah, I don't know. But I don't know if that can carry all the holes that this team is going to have. So it sounds like we're all going under and I want to file away the,

to me, the plus 400 for them not to make the playoffs is too, those odds are too good. I think there's a really good chance this team doesn't make the playoffs. As you said, six teams are locks

and then we start going Portland, New Orleans, Dallas, Golden State, San Antonio. A couple of those are going to fall out. It's going to happen. Try to figure out

who's falling out because it's those six and you said you have 11 that you can argue the next five and Golden State's part of that group of five I know we're going to get to all this stuff but it's just really hard it's hard to sift through all that do you think House you think there's

a little bit to this season of this team has kicked everybody's asses really since 2015 a little sticking it to them teams coming through This team has kicked everybody's asses really since 2015. A little sticking it to them. Teams coming through. Teams like, oh man, this is a chance to get some back. This team that's killed us for half a decade.

Yeah, and I especially think that's true for teams that they only play. Like the Eastern teams will be motivated because Golden State's been coming out here East and kicking everybody's ass for all these years. Embarrassing teams. So teams will, you know, it's still the case that they will pack the house. You know, everybody will still love to come see Steph. He continues to be a mega draw. So in front of that packed house, you know, even like upstart teams like, like Memphis,

you know, Memphis is, is, is taking lumps against golden state. They're going to be up for that, that game when golden state, I think that's a problem. I think that's got to factor in.

And, uh, I think we're all going under. All right. We're gonna take a break. Talk about Duncan, the go-to place for a delicious on the go breakfast, which I've eaten, house.

Burrito Bowl. Oh, yeah. Oh, I've heard about this. Yeah, they have two new burrito bowls packed with savory, fiesta-worthy flavors. The Chorizo Burrito Bowl, which I loved, is loaded with eggs, chorizo, cheese, onion, poblano peppers, red quinoa, brown rice,

topped with a smoky tomato sauce. And it was really good. They also have the fire-roasted veggie burrito bowl. Eggs, cauliflower, cheese, onion, bell peppers, corn, black beans, brown rice, chipotle sauce. They go great with a freshly brewed cup of original blend or bold dark roast. Tiny bit, but, you know, if you're a veggie person, you know, when I meet in the morning, it's great.

I like both of them. I thought they're delicious. Which one, if you had to pick, which one would you want to eat right now, House? Honestly, this may shock you. I prefer the veggie one. I have turned into a veggie in the morning kind of fella. I'm there too.

On the go food, for on the go food. Like if I'm going to sit down and it's gonna be a hour and a half breakfast and i know i can go to bed afterwards i'll let some meat come in but duncan i'm on the fly i'm duncan wide it's my duncan bowl it's my duncan dark i'm out the door i'm sitting down and then we're gonna jump into our heavy podcasting day let me have the veggie one i agree wholeheartedly whether you're heading to work, to school, or your kid's school, or wherever, Dunkin' has two tasty new ways to spice up your morning. Dig into the new burrito bowls from Dunkin'. A fiesta of flavor in a bowl. All right, let's finish the rest of the Pacific division. We'll go with the leader. The Clippers,

the over-under is 53. If you bet the over right now, it's plus 115. So it seems like people are trending more toward that going under. For the division, they're minus 180. Paul George looks like he's out, I would say, first 10 to 12 games minimum. I always think teams lie about this. Like, oh, he's going to miss the first 10 games.

It turns out to be 20. Feels like they're a trade away still. I still think this is where Iguodala ends up. They have Moe Harkless is expiring. I do think Rod McGruder is going to be good for them. He's somebody I've always liked. And you know what? You don't stop reminding us.

Yeah, I really like that guy. They have 10 guys I like. Beverly, Shamit, Kawhi, George, Lou Williams, Harkless. Jermichael Green, I kind of liked last year, Harrell, obviously, and then Magruder. I guess they have nine guys. I'm not a Zubach guy. 53, what do you think, Priscilla?

So back to my whole, like, which teams have nonsense and bullshit going on versus which of the teams that know exactly who they are. Like a Utah, I think, knows, hey, this is exactly, we're going for this thing. I tried to go under on this. It's only five more wins than that team last year yeah you got to go over even if they do rest George even if there is load management here with Kawhi this team is going to be really good defensively and you know one of the things that I was constantly trying to do when I was looking at

overs here and you know whatever totals in general is don't get mad at Zubac because he was so bad in the playoffs yeah and that's one of the tricky things with this is separating playoff versions of these teams you like versus the stability of what they'll be in the regular season Montrez is going to play five anyway so if they don't like their matchup with Zubac in a regular season game then Montrezl will play, and the fact they were able to keep him, the Shamit thing, who's turned into like he's almost perfect for a Paul George Kawhi accessory player.

Made the SI cover. I know. Turned down the World Championships. He's like, I'm good. I'm going to be a key player in the playoffs. House, what do you have, over or under? I have over, especially with the plus odds. I mean, they have all of the foundational stuff.

Depth, stability, institutional stability, a good owner. Doc is a good coach for a team like this. They're motivated. They want to own LA. They want to stamp out the Lakers. I don't know what the ceiling is because the contra argument to that is Paul George, bring him back slowly.

You want him healthy. The season matters in April, not in November. And you're going to load manage Kawhi, even though they're saying they're not going to do that. They absolutely are going to do that. But Rosillo's point is the right one. They won 48 games last year.

You're asking me, will they win six more games? The answer is yes, they will win six more games. I love 54. Oh, wow. See, I think if you just add Kawhi to this team, I would have still probably gone over. And the Paul George thing is like, oh, he might miss 15 games. It's like, all right, well, they'll have him for the other 67.

I think this team's going to be really good. I have them in the high 50s, and I think they're in play for the one seed. I'll give you my pick for the one seed later, but I have them like 57 and 25. I think there's going to be energy at the home games, too, which

they have not totally had. It's been a situation a little like the Chargers where, you know, they play the Warriors at home and there's 10,000 Warriors fans there. I think, I do think people like Kawhi. I think people have bought into this,

you know, this Clipper thing at least a little bit. And I think they'll have energy at home games. Balmer, Duck Rivers. They're kind of, if you think they're going to win the title, it has to start during the regular season, in my opinion. If it starts during the regular season,

you can't lose more than 25 games. So I'm going over. Four teams last year in the West, between 53 and 57 wins. So Golden State, 57. Denver, 54. Portland, 53. Houston, 53. Even even with load management even with

the George delay on this we know the depth we know the rotation far better than we know what the Lakers is going to be and they're going to be one of the three top destinations for that vet buyout or one or two of them so I and also Toronto was 58 and24 last year, and I think that's important because how many games did Kawhi miss? 20? 21, was it? 17-4, 17-5 they went without him, something like that? Weaker conference, obviously. Yeah. But, you know. And by the way, the Kawhi stuff, like as much as we always try to figure out or we thought we knew who he was, he was the happy superstar, right?

The submissive guy, the guy in San Antonio that bought in the perfect spur. And I was like, no, wait, actually actually he's going armageddon here yeah he wants out his kaiser soza yeah we can we can debate the injury stuff and you know then toronto it's like no no he likes it here he likes it here and it's pretty clear he was never gonna stay no matter what right i don't think there was any conclusion to that rapper but we both heard that though it was like yeah he hates the cold doesn't want to stay. But then we started tracking, we're like, wait a minute, his kid registered for what?

That sounds like, that's an expensive private school outside of Ontario. It turned out it wasn't his kid, it was a crisis actor. House. So, no, but. Are we going under? I just think it's important though, House, to like, what do you expect out of Kawhi? Because other athletes may go,

hey, I want to ring with San Antonio. I was the mercenary with Toronto. I want to ring. Now I finally got to LA. I don't think he is a guy that plays the game, taking his foot off the pedal. Well, the other thing is- Unless he doesn't play.

If he wins a title with the Clippers and becomes the first guy of all time to go in three different cities and win a title and the first guy ever to do back-to-back I won titles in different cities is the best guy. Now you're talking about one of the 12 best guys of all time. So that's in play two for him. I don't know if he cares, but... House, we're all going over?

Yeah, it's unanimous. They only have to win 54 games off this number. 54 feels like chump change for this team. I don't think the next team will be unanimous. The Los Angeles Lakers. The over is 50. Odds are even, which means people are actually banging the under. They are plus

250 for the division, plus 375 for the conference, 6-1 to win the title. Plus 425 not to make the playoffs, minus 600 to make the playoffs. So it's funny. There's a lot of Laker fans online and on Twitter. Russillo and I

have really enjoyed all of them talking themselves into Dwight Howard. Couple alley-oops from LeBron. It's like, Dwight! He looks like 2015 Dwight!

It's like, yeah, please believe in Dwight. Please. I beg you. I heard one where it was like, he went 8 for 10 from the free throw line last night and then the other guy was like shot 70 percent yeah free throw line he played nine games seven games last year so listening to local and i love the local radio

out here and it's completely changed my perspective on how passionate the LA feel. Like, no one should ever knock any LA fans. Oh, yeah. This city's awesome when it comes to that. But, but, listening to every Laker person talk themselves into Dwight Howard has been just fucking awesome.

Magical. House, you're really missing it. I will say, I try not to get carried away from the preseason. Carson Edwards hit eight threes in a quarter. I didn't blink. I was like, that's great. I'm happy for him. They didn't get too carried away from the preseason. Carson Edwards hit eight threes in a quarter. I didn't blink.

I was like, that's great. I'm happy for him. They didn't get too carried away and talk myself in it. You didn't send one tweet about that? No, I preseason, I don't get bent out of shape. There was a couple clips last night, House, of LeBron and Davis running high screens where it was like, oh shit.

And that was the first time I started to think over because the play was unstoppable. And I realized LeBron's entire career, he has never played with somebody like this. You would think like, oh, Bosh was like this. No, he actually wasn't like this. Oh, in Cleveland, he had Kevin Love. Well, Kevin Love wasn't like this,

where high screen, sets the pick, rolls a little bit. LeBron does some fancy pass around the guy's hip. And all of a sudden Davis is just going to the rim like Montrezl Harrell, only he's 10 times more talented than Montrezl Harrell. I did get a little scared house. What are your, what are your thoughts on the 50 and on the partnership? So I watched that game last night as well, deliberately in preparation for this podcast because I'm a podcast professional, Bill Simmons. I had the same reaction as you.

I had a little bit of a holy shit kind of reaction. Yeah. That team looks like LeBron is not effing around. He's not. This is the most rest he's had in, what, 15 years? At least 12 years, right? The most rest, the most postseason rest. He looks physically good.

He looks physically lean. He was out there doing all of his LeBron pointing, all the discussions with the refs, all his you know his bug eyes were working overtime to quit the quick walking when he does like the quick prance he had that going for a for a preseason game i i think that they're they're loaded the only thing that would have would dissuade me from the over here is concern about Davis's health. Are they going to be asking too much of AD? Are they going to be too hyped, this combo?

And are we going to get a couple of those niggling Anthony Davis injuries where he misses six games here and five games there? And then you're asking a lot of guys like Contavious Caldwell Pope and all the Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee action anybody could possibly take. Is Danny Green still alive? That's the reason to be concerned about the under. But I'm taking the over. I'm just on the over.

That LeBron-Anthony Davis combination is fearsome to me. If you take Dwight Howard was like a 20 and 15 in Orlando, you put that guy here, it's a pretty good team. He looks lighter, Bill. He looks lighter. He's a 20-15 guy, Ryan. Maybe he hasn't shown it the last couple years. Look at those rebounding numbers.

You don't just roll out of bed and get those kinds of boards. You made a key point with LeBron that also has to address what he was last year, which was not anything that House mentioned in that preseason game last night. It was a mail-in last year from him. He was not invested. He was a ghost ship passing through the season and we could all see it. And now you see him this year and it's like, oh, he's locked in. And we haven't seen this version of him really since the first two Cleveland seasons where he's like, I'm all in. I really want to win this year. Are you guys seriously, like,

that's what you're taking out of one preseason game? Do you guys not understand what just happened? I'm taking it from the whole month of everything I've seen, watched, read. I think, I think he's really, really, really, really invested in this season. Three, really. Yeah, it's the last

data point, Rossella. The eye test was last night. If you're aggregating data points, I've done nine. I've researched the analytics. I've looked at advanced metrics. I know Anthony Davis' defensive impact and all that kind of stuff. I wanted the eye test. Last night was the eye test.

I'm sold. I wanted the I give a shit eye test, and I think he's passed that. And Davis seems like he's also delighted because he even had this quote in the thing. Granted, it's a preseason game. He's like, I only scored X amount of points and we still won. It was really nice. He's never been in a situation where he's just been on a kick-ass team. He's never played with a guy like LeBron. I just think the two of them together get to 51 wins as long as neither of them gets hurt. But that's why I wouldn't bet on this. Cause I don't trust LeBron to stay

healthy. I don't trust David to stay healthy. I'm going over, but I wouldn't make it a lock. Okay. Davis, let's start there on the health thing. Because yeah, it is kind of concerning, but if it hadn't been the debacle trade thing, he probably would be coming off of three almost full seasons. He played 75 games, 75 games. Last year he played 56.

Are you zagging on me right now? This feels like a zag. No, but I'm zagging on the Anthony Davis never plays a full season thing because, look, that was the introduction of his career to us, but I'm zagging on the Anthony Davis never plays a full season thing because, look, that was the introduction of his career to us. But he would be basically three straight complete seasons here. I mean, not 82 because nobody really does that anymore. If it weren't for the disastrous stuff that happened in Orleans and trying to get a trade and trying to get out of there and then getting shut down.

So I just think that that's important. Plus you go from the Pelicans medical staff to LeBron's medical staff. And the Pelicans medical staff historically has, has been considered one of the worst. Right. I mean, if you go through it, you're like this team was never healthy and they didn't put enough resources and all of this stuff. So Davis actually, I think recent history healthier than he gets credit for.

If this team is the one seed and coming, I'd be surprised if they were one seed, I wouldn't be surprised if they were coming out of the West at all. But what I worry about is what happens when Vogel really wants to coach these guys. LeBron consistently has problems with that guy that's in that position of authority. And then his,

his buddy Rondo, who, you know, can shut it down with the best of them. I worry about this team going south if everything isn't going according to plan. The Davis thing, like Lakers fans are realizing, like you thought you knew him and now you're seeing it. Even in preseason games, you're going, oh my God, this is why everybody made such a big deal about this. But as far as LeBron, yeah, he's probably more rested.

You would think just the science of it. He's more rested because it's been this long since he's had this kind of layoff but i also think the one thing we haven't touched on here is in the aftermath of his poorly worded poorly executed response to daryl morey in this china soap opera that i thought he was going to show up to staples center and be a super locked in preseason LeBron to try to get everybody off of his case. I like that. So that's what I thought.

That was a double zag from you. We're all going over. None of us would bet on it. I've had... No, I'm going under. Are you really? Yeah. I wouldn't bet on it though.

You're going under? Yeah. This is our first disagreement. All right. House and I are going under. Priscilla going over. I'm going under, but I still think... I mean, House and I are going over. You're going under. Yeah, but it's not because I don't think

they're... I just... There's more questions about this group despite how amazing the top two guys are and how the rest of it's going to fit. And, you know, look, if Dwight gets back to Orlando Dwight 10 years ago, then, you know, plan the parade. I mean, Dwight,

it's 8 for ten. I do want to offer up Rosillo. They have the 29th strength of schedule to start the season. Wow, research. House, way to go. Hold on. That's a shout-out, Matt Moore, at the Action Network.

I mean, I ride that homie. Hey, guys, I'm teaming up with FanDuel to give the listeners out there a chance to play fantasy football against me, Cousin Sal, the Trifecta, and neither of you. The best part, the winner gets to fly out to Puerto Rico to be our official correspondent for FanDuel's World Fantasy Football Championship Live Finals. Get an all-expense paid trip to enjoy four days worth of WFFC events in Puerto Rico, including an exclusive beach afterparty with a live performance by Ludacris. Go to fanduel.com slash ringer to enter and draft your week seven fantasy team

before the games kick off on Sunday. I have been getting my ass kicked in daily the last couple weeks. And I'm going to rally back this week with a lot of the Colts. Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton. I like them against the Texans this week. So I know I'm going that way.

Anyway, playing against Misa, the trifecta of the Ringer Listener League on Fando. It doesn't matter if you missed last week. You can still take on the top prize. Go to Fando.com slash Ringer to enter now. All right, we're behind schedule, so we got to rip through these last two Pacific teams.

We have Phoenix at 29.5 is the over- under for them. They are 250 to one to win the division. If you're looking at that, Rosillo, they are plus 1200 to make the playoffs. The big addition was Ricky Rubio,

which was a weird fit, but at least he is somebody who has played the point guard position before. And then we have a Devin Booker who did not have time for the world championships last year because you're so out have Devin Booker who did not have time for the World Championships last year because You're so out on Devin Booker Every time his name is brought up your tone changes

He wanted to stay focused on this 27 and 55 Sun season he's about to have They do have Dario Saric which I enjoy They're starting five house

Rubio, Booker your boy Oubre Saric and DeAndre Ayton Are you going under under over under house i'm gonna say over yes oh my god love it i honestly think it's a pretty professional team i know that's insane but i i you know uh i i just think there there's like gotta be a time when they start to show this is the worst case i've ever heard grass popping up no no i'm just saying that like that

just the basic regression idea they have eight nba players right ty? Tyler Johnson was a nice addition. Sure. Mikael Bridges could play. Oubre and Saric, those guys are starters on an NBA team. I mean, I'm going to say over, slightly over. 30 wins for the Phoenix Suns. House sucking up to the Suns blog. Why?

Is he a big guest on the Suns blog? No, the Suns blog. They're Is he a big guest on the Suns blog? No, the Suns blog. They're one of those NBA blogs that they get really upset anytime somebody says anything bad about the Suns. They must be upset about everything then. Yeah, they don't like me. Is that the Valley of the Sun one or something like that? Something like that. It's always like a cool name.

All the local blogs that are basically like out of control, homers, they always have the greatest titles. Yeah. They should title stuff. I am not as high on this team. And I think the Sarver stench is insurmountable. And it'll take a while to wipe that off like a bad cologne.

What do you think, Rosillo? You're such an ancillary guy. Like you just, the mystic stuff going on in the air. Well, I just think this conference is awesome. It is. You can't just give me, they're a little bit better. They're going to win 32 games. Somebody has to be a loser in this conference. There's 11

possible playoff teams, which means there has to be some bad teams too. They only have to win 30. Yeah, I don't see it. The other thing is once you start getting toward March, April and it's like, oh man, we have a chance for another top five, especially the way they changed the tanking rules, where you can be the seventh worst team and get the first pick.

I don't know. I don't see this team pressing the gas pedal. When I started looking at the depth charts, I went, you know what? I didn't throw up this time. Yeah. Okay. So that it's Rubio booker ubre who i don't know if people realize it's like ubre's gonna play a long time in this league

yeah like he's he's figured it out i like him and as a ninth man sarich who you go back and wait a minute what do they do again they traded the sixth pick to move back okay for sarich because they're sick of just another lottery pick but then they took cameron johnson who no one thought would go that high it was like yeah 10 so that was that was just the like the grades the next day sons f but when but when you when you take all that stuff away from from a late June night. Yeah. And you go, Aiton's pretty good. Hey? Saric, Oubre, Booker,

Rubio, Ty Jerome. I don't understand how Saric and Aiton make sense together. I like both of them individually, but I don't think I like them together. I don't want another big,

though, at four, who doesn't want to stretch the floor. Like, I don't know in the NBA, that's kind of the Pacers thing where you go, can you play a power forward and a center together that don't always stretch the floor, even, I don't know in the NBA, that's kind of the Pacers thing where you go, can you play a power forward

and a center together that don't always stretch the floor, even though Sabonis does a little bit. So I think I'd rather have a four that stretches. I'm, you're right. The best argument against this is somebody has to be bad,

but give me the Suns over 29 and a half. Okay, all right. House going over. They can be, they can be the worst team in the West and win 30 games. Good luck with that prediction. I have the under.

I'm just saying, it's possible. 29 and a half, House and Rosillo going over. Then we got the Sacramento Kings. Little action on them. Over under 38, minus 125, which means people are banging it. They are plus 225 to make the playoffs, which I was a little surprised by. Why were you surprised by that?

Because they're the kings. They haven't made the playoffs since 2006. It seemed ambitious. Yeah, but doesn't it seem right, though, with the way they competed most of the year last year? Sure. I thought the Celtics had their pick, and I was watching and monitoring most of those games. And they had a lot of, I don't want to say luck, but outcomes that were 50-50 outcomes

seemed to swing their way in these games, like buzzer beaters from 30 feet and people blowing leads late against them. So it was a frustrating season to root against them. The Buddy Heald thing's a problem. He gave a pretty passionate press conference last night, basically saying if they don't give me a new contract by Monday, I would

want to be traded. I don't know why they wouldn't give him a good contract by the way, because I think when you look at his numbers, where the league is going, that's like exactly the kind of guy you would have. I would be like, what do you want? $25 million a year? Done. Fox healed Harrison Barnes.

Bagley, who... Who's your guy. And in the World Championships, apparently, was great until he decided not to play anymore. Dwayne Dedman, who's been a nerd guy for a while. The nerds have loved him forever. And then Bogdanovich off the bench,

who was one of the World Championship guys with Corey Joseph, with Ariza, with Balika. Is that how you say it? I like him too. Nemanja? Nemanja Balika?

No. I thought there was a softer C in there. Jalika? No, no, no. Balisha. Balisha? No, that doesn't make any sense. Balisha?

I'm off season pronunciations right now. And Rashawn Holmes, who I've liked forever, who at some point is going to have a moment. But yeah, they're deep this year. I just, somebody's got to be 11th. I'm going slightly over, but I don't have them making the playoffs. I think they're in the 39 to 40 range, and that's about it.

I do think they have an identity, which is important. They're built around their backcourt, like shooting threes. Bagley can go off at any time and then the other thing is before Bagley got hurt last year they were like having a moment like it would actually seem like they might sneak into the playoffs so I think the over is a safe bet I'm going over house what do you think I'm also going over uh on a very simple proposition they won 39 39 games last year, and I don't think they're worse this year. I think they're like a 39 or 40 win team. And, you know, they have a pretty professional compliment here. I totally agree with the idea that they have an identity,

and you're not asking for them to do a lot to hit the over. So it's kind of an easy over for me. Russillo? They were 30 and 26. I think that's the high watermark. We kept just wondering like when is this going to stop? And right around then Bagley got hurt. Yeah.

And that's when it turned around. I love the five. I love that Bogdanovich is coming off the bench. We can sit here and say like I don't really like their bigs. I mean Dedman, I remember the first time I watched him before the draft, which was only a couple years ago, which is weird because he's 30. He was like really old when he was coming out. Yeah.

And then he started stretching the floor a little bit more and more. And you're like, this guy's like a serviceable, almost modern big, except that he just he looked 100 when he was coming out. But he's 30 now, so who cares? So there's a lot of teams you're going to go through and be like, I don't really like their bigs. I don't really like their bigs. But do you have shooters and do you have a chance for somebody to be really special? And that's who De'Aaron Fox is. I like that

they have adults on this team too. They did a good job of this. Barnes is a really respected teammate and locker room guy. And Ariza, I think, is basically washed up as a nine-man rotation guy. He's probably at the tail end, but he's an adult and he's been on a lot of good teams.

And to have two of those guys, I think it's important. And Corey Joseph was, you know, in this burst system the last couple of years too. I think ultimately their destiny is whether Bagley can play the five and whether at crunch time,

you have Fox healed Barnes Bagley, but then you have Bogdanovich as the fifth and they sacrifice a little bit with rim protection and, know that's just so know how on defense think about that like the one thing i loved about toronto throughout this entire run and yeah they got lucky at the end of the injuries but they had every guy out there could get you a bucket that's hard to do that's that's really hard to do to go like yeah do we have five guys yeah the best version of the kings is a closing group that you just mentioned that's

five guys that can make a shot. So the thing, the, one of the reasons I like the over with them, and I don't think this will happen to just as I just wanted to clear that before I say it, I do think their ceilings high. Like there's a world where if they went 48 and 34, which I don't think will happen, but if they did it, I wouldn't be like be like oh my god that's the craziest thing that's ever happened I think they could be

really really really good offensively it would need you need some injuries you need like Golden State would really have to tank which is going to happen

by the way like two of these teams that we think are maybe eight or nine top west they're going to have major injuries this team's going to be healthy

but if Fox has that year one to year two like the progression where you go now it's year three now it's okay you're going to have major injuries. This team's going to be healthy. But if Fox has that year one to year two, like the progression where you go... Now it's year three. Now it's, okay, you're going to be like a star in this. Like, could you be could Fox be an all-NBA guy this year? Like, yeah, maybe. I had him on the fringe last year when I was trying to find who

my sixth guard was going to be. House, we're all in on the over? Yeah, I'm doing the over. Is Rosillo doing the over? Yeah. I am. I feel like I'm being really nice so far. No, we're going to get mean in a second. If you did all the math,

we feel we're over heavy right now, but that's all right. All right, let's go out. We're going to switch divisions to whatever the hell the division is called that has Dallas and Houston in it.

The Metro East. Yeah, Houston. Houston's over under is 54. They're minus 350 to win the division. They're 8-1 to win the title. And 15-1 if you want to say they will not make the playoffs. Gerald Green looks like he's out for the year. Westbrook Harden.

Eric Gordon. P.J. Tucker. Quinn Capella. Then it gets a little dicey. There's a little Austin Rivers. Cephalosha, Nene. There's some Gary Clark. They feel like they're a guy or two short. I'm not sure it's going to matter in the regular season.

It never matters with them. I mean, who's better? Which organization, based on the way they play, who's better than the Rockets of just grabbing somebody you think is toast and plugging them in there and being like, stand here and be productive. And it's going to work. And they're a team. Could not agree more.

Totally agree with this. That's a team this has gone over pretty much every year and burned us any time we went against them. It's an over for me. Harden and D'Antoni together. 55 wins, 65 wins, 53 wins. I think Russell Westbrook is a marked upgrade. A significant

upgrade over Chris Paul. I think he's going to be terrific for this team. I think that they are going to be threatening to win the West. They're going to be the one seed and threatening to win the West. I'm going to give you the zag because I've heard it multiple

places. Too much turmoil this year. Starts out, D'Antoni doesn't get the extension. Their owner is promoting a book called Shut Up and Listen.

Daryl Morey in China becomes the biggest story of this decade. You know, he screwed up. He didn't put fuck in the title of the book. Shut the fuck up and listen? I was at a bookstore

the other day. Oh, there's a fuck book that's been in... Well, no, but I mean, it it's every book now with an asterisk lewis and fucking clark well rossillo as a writer yeah yes how how important is the f-bomb to you when do you like to use it you gotta space them out man yeah you gotta space them out i don't like it in the title feels a bit much. But that's the thing. Why so strong?

It's a marketing thing now. So everybody's just coming out with stuff. Like Obama's got a new one coming out. You wouldn't fucking believe this. Your book should be called The Art of the Fucking Zag. You're selling me. Just all zags. You're trying to just every chapter.

Every chapter's a zag. Right. Like here's what you don't get. That's great about Russia. So I have over for the rockets. I didn't finish the turmoil case because there's also, there's some Russell Westbrook card in who's going to be happy. Why do we think this is,

why do we think the guys are the two highest usage rates of all time are basically going to be able to coexist? I'm going the other way on that. And I've talked about this before in a pod, so I'll make it quick. I think he brings chaos and intensity and unpredictability and excitement and athleticism that they did not have last year. He,

he gives them the ability down three with a minute left, the crowd's kind of dead. He grabs a rebound, goes full court, bounces off somebody, layup, makes it, runs over, jumps on the scorer's table, does the whole thing. They didn't have anybody like that last year. It was the most methodical, boring team to watch I've ever seen in my life that

succeeded. And now it's like he's throwing a chainsaw in a hot tub. And the chainsaw's just going off and splashing everywhere. And I think they kind of needed that. And now it's like he's throwing a chainsaw in a hot tub. And the chainsaw is just going off and splashing everywhere. And I think they kind of needed that. And by the way, if you're taking 85 to 90 shots in an NBA game, you can coexist, especially if you stagger

their minutes. Both of these guys can take 24 shots a game and not really bite off each other's shot thing. I think regular season, it's fine. Playoffs is going to be a problem. Regular season, I think it's fine. Over. Completely agree with the last two points. There's a complete

gap between my belief in them as a regular season team and then the playoffs because they have two of the biggest flame-out faces of franchise playoff guys that we've had in modern history. Westbrook is a complete flame-out. Don't trust him. Loses tough guy.

Pound the chest. L and Harden. The fact that game six, once Durant went down and they were at home and let Steph do what he did to them in the second, not that they'd let him, but Steph did that to him. Yeah.

And then Harden just has that, like, I'm tired face at the end of the whole deal. And now all these people write about, the Rockets are really tired. I don't trust either of those guys, but I'm going over in the regular season for what you just pointed out. We were wrong. And I don't mean like viciously wrong, but

collectively, oh, the Chris Paul, James Harden, like, how are you going to figure out? How are you going to figure out? The way they staggered the minutes with those two guys during the regular season tells me all I need to know that this is going to work. They're going to win a million games. All the pieces around them are plug and play. Capella's good. Gordon's good. Tucker's good.

Their five are really good here. I'm not worried about their lack of depth. The turmoil stuff, I don't know. I don't know that it gets to players as much as we think that it does,

especially somebody as single-minded as Westbrook and somebody sometimes as oblivious as Harden. Well, but sometimes turmoil is good for a regular season basketball team. They should be pissed off at the world. Yeah.

They should be looking at the— It's us against them. And the great thing about the West in general is that it's still uncertain. Like, I can think the Clippers are the best team. I can think the Lakers' best version of themselves is even better than that. I can love Utah's stability, all these different— Houston, Harden, Westbrook just got bounced because George eventually was like, you know what, actually, I don't want to play here.

I just didn't want to admit it to anybody. Sorry about that barbecue you threw for me a year ago. My bad. I actually was super uncomfortable. Yeah, that was weird. I didn't know what to say to anybody, so I signed a three-year deal. I don't like pork belly, I forgot to tell you.

And so Westbrook's bounced because that thing falls apart. He's had these playoff exits. Harden has become somebody that, like, nobody wants to vote for anymore, MVP, because you just feel like, that's cool. You guys space it out. You run this system. He hits a ton of threes. It's boring as death and none of us want to watch him. Those two

guys collectively should be the most motivated players in the entire league. I also think this is a really good team for Westbrook. He's never played on a team like this. He's never played on a team with shooting and spacing and the ability to play off the ball. It's like, well, Westbrook can't play off the ball. He's never played on a team like this. He's never played on a team with shooting and spacing and the ability to play off the ball. It's like, well, Westbrook can't play off the ball. We've never seen evidence

that he could. He just stops, though. That's my problem. But on the other hand, he might be able to play off the ball on this team because if he makes cuts and stuff as people are shading hard and he'll actually get it. He's never played with anybody like him since all those guys left. That's a great point on that part of it. Because if you're just waiting, waiting, and then as soon as the help comes off to you or whatever now it's like oh he couldn't play off

the ball with dennis schroeder like yeah i'm no kidding house you're going on uh over yeah over i think wasolo's point is exactly the right one all the oxygen the preseason oxygen in the west has been uh devoted to the two la teams and And then the buzzy vibes of Utah and Ken Denver run it back. And Houston, maybe a teeny tiny bit of nobody believes in us kind of vibe. Yeah, I like Houston a lot here. People count us out.

Nobody's talking about us. That's right. They said we couldn't play together. We're still fucking here. They're going to make sure. That's the name of my book. That'll be the team DVD. Hold on. We have a lot of teams left to go fucking here. They're going to make sure. That's the name of my book. That'll be the team DVD. Hold on.

We have a lot of teams left to go through here. Dallas, over under is 40 and a half. I was shocked by how quickly that I just was like, over. I think this is a possible playoff team. Luka's getting some MVP sleeper buzz. I think he was like 20 to 1, something like that. Did you see the GM survey that after Giannis, it was Anthony Davis or Luka as the second player

you'd want to build your franchise around? I agree. You don't agree with that? Just seems a little quick. You want to see his body fat get down to 25%? You could see him in a Halloween photo with Jim Cunningham and Nephew Kyle. Smoking a Marlboro Red.

You know, if you're European, smoking isn't even bad for you. Right. Bounces right off you. God, that guy's chain smokes. Filters are better. So they added some guys that I like. They have guys on this team that I actually like. DeLon Wright, Seth Curry,

who, the three-point stats on him the last couple years are kind of shocking. Like, he's almost historically great. He's like a 45% three-point shooter. Remember when Vivek signs and brings him in, you're like, this owner is just like,

maybe the brother will hit some shots. Yeah. You know, it became a punchline. Yeah. And he's legitimately going to be a rotation guy

the rest of his life. He's a top seven three-point shooter in the league. So they have him. I like Jalen Brunson. Hardaway Jr., if he's your eighth guy.

You love the Mavs. House, what's going on with this guy? Does he have a condo in Dallas that we don't know about? I just think Porzingis hasn't played for so long that people forget he is a fucking unicorn. He's 7'3". He can protect the rim.

And he hits threes. And he's going to average 20 or 25 points a game. You know why we forget? Because he hasn't played fucking basketball in 20 months. Yeah. You're counting on a guy with a horrendous uh injury record as as the uh engine that drives your over i'm a i'm a huge under here here here's

my question to you okay tell me who their third best player is? Hardaway? Seth Curry. Okay. If Seth Curry is your third best player, how many wins are you getting? This is, for me, a Luka Doncic pick. I think he is a future MVP. I honestly do. I think he's a future MVP. And I think if you look at the history of great guys, second year, those teams go 500 or better. Yeah, I'm not down there. Going through it and watching his shooting fall off a little bit at the end of the year. But when you're still talking about somebody who's this young

and is 33% from three by the time it was all said and done, that's still good. I'm not looking at it like, oh, you know what? It is 33% from three by the time it was all said and done. You know, that's still good. Like, I'm not looking at it like, oh, you know what? He got hot early and he was a mess late and whatever. Sounds like you're going under. I am going under because of Porzingis. Okay.

And I like Porzingis. I'm just going under because I'm not sure that he's healthy enough. Powell's going to be your center, who I like in limited minutes. I mean, he's only played like 20 minutes a game. I like Kleber, too. Maxie? I do. I think in limited minutes. I mean, he's only played like 20 minutes a game. I like Kleber too. Maxie? I do. I think he's solid. I wish the Celtics had him. I wish we had him over the Time Lord and all the other guys that are going to be playing at center.

This would be like a 47... Go ahead. No, I just asked about Boban when you mentioned him. This is like a 47 win team in the East. They're just going to get slaughtered in the West, is my feeling. I think 40.5 is a really smart number from Vegas. I just, on this one, I'd go under.

It's not anti-Donchich. It's not even anti-Persingas. It is a lack of depth, and it is. I'm not just going to pencil in Persingas for 75 games until I see it again. That's fair. Right. New Orleans, over-unders 39 and a half. Deepest team in the NBA.

12-1 to win the division. 70-1 win the conference. Plus 260 to win the playoffs. To get in, right? You mean? Just to make the playoffs plus 260. I got to say, I think this is my favorite one we've done so far for the over. I think this team's going to be good right away.

Drew Holiday is a top 20 guy to me. I love Lonzo. I've been in on Lonzo forever. I think he's going to have a chip on his shoulder. I think Zion is going to be a top 20 guy this year. I don't want to overreact to preseason, but after watching him for a couple of days, it's like, it's like, oh, cool. this year. I don't want to overreact to preseason, but after watching for a couple days... It's real.

It's a problem. Go ahead. Overreact. It's like, oh, cool. This guy now has shooters and an offense that has him... has designed to have him

going toward the basket with a little bit of space. He's unstoppable. He's unstoppable. He abused Ed Davis in that preseason game. Ed Davis. Okay?

And no, but I mean, Ed Davis is a grown man who's around and rotates. Like whenever anybody looked at Zion, if you think he's going to be a bus because he might get hurt, then we can't argue. Okay. Yeah. I'm worried about how big he is. He's going to fall on an ankle.

I can't predict that. I can't tell you you're going to be wrong if he's going to roll an ankle or he's going to be too big for his body and all that stuff. That's fine. But if you're watching him and you're trying to tell you his basketball skills alert you to that he's it's not going to work out then you're just an idiot i can't talk to you i can't talk to you about basketball and when people were saying against he's going up against college kids you're like you realize he's bigger than most of the men in the league and you're going to see him embarrass grown men

with his first step with his second Also, he's playing with great guards which is so important with this. He doesn't actually have to play point guard like he did at Duke sometimes. You're like, he's initiating the entire set. He's a great athlete who actually has guys who will get him the ball. I really, really like Alexander Walker and I'm so mad the Celtics didn't take him

instead of Romeo. I'm mad they didn't take Thibault. I'm mad they... I think Alexander Walker's going to play. They have J.J. Redick on this team? This guy's been in the playoffs since 2006? Etuan Moore's still on the team. The way their bench rotation, some of the guys that'll be coming off that are guards. How about Okafer?

Is he like a rotation guy or am I nuts? No, Jaleel. He's a 10th man. I just think they're deep. I'm kidding about And then Brandon Ingram, I think, is the wild card for them. I don't know what to make of him. He's in that same Jalen Brown, Buddy Heald contract class. The Laker fans were really bullish on him

and talking about how much potential he had. I never totally understood what position he was. What I like about this team, where you can play Zion and Favors together and Ingram at small forward, or you could just play... Honestly, you could play Zion as a small ball five, and it's not the craziest thing anyone's done.

But I do think there's some flexibility with him. I go back to the guards, though, and Zion. Zion's ceiling. And Lonzo and Drew Holiday, I just love that backcourt. It's honestly like a top five favorite backcourt to watch for me where Lonzo is a point guard, but surprisingly doesn't have the ball a ton. And Drew Holiday is not a point guard, but it also has the ball more than a two guard.

And I just like how they're going to mix together. And defensively, this team's going to be really good. So I'm over, and this is a lock for me. If this team doesn't win 40 games, that means Zion got hurt. That's it. You beat me to it. This is a lock for me as well. I'm joining this lock.

We haven't even talked about it. I honestly think that the combination of Alvin Gentry and Basilic, Jeff Basilic, is like a really great coaching combo for this group of guys. They have a very, very nice mix of youth and established guys. This is a lock for me as well. Over. So they're 12-1 to win this division, which you're basically saying they would have to get to the high 40s

and something weird would have to happen with Houston. Those odds are pretty good. I wouldn't bet them, but there's a world in which the Houston thing goes south and Harden's ass could be traded in December. Who the hell knows? No, lifelong friends. They've been lifelong friends. They wanted to play together.

Are you a favors guy, Rosillo? I was. I've never really seen it the last couple of years. I was in college. Yeah. I was in the draft. And I'm thinking, man, what a terrible thing to give up in this Darren Williams trade. Oof he's gonna come back right and it just never really happened it never really

clicked and he's probably better now than i give him credit for based on the disappointment of what i thought he could be because he just was so explosive and big and he had a little little like a well-rounded game It wasn't just some big four that was athletic. I thought there would be more depth to his game, and it never really happened in Utah. But, having said that, if he's your fifth scoring option with the starters, that's great. But I do

want to see Zion at the five sometimes. I don't know if Lonzo, when you say he has a chip on his shoulder, he should based on everything that he has had to deal with. But do you think he's wired that way? Do you say he has a chip on his shoulder, he should based on everything that he has had to deal with. But do you think he's wired that way? Like, do you think he actually will go into this going, all right, now I want to prove everybody wrong? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I just don't know that he's never shown anything like that. I think it's more a chip about what happened to Big Bauer brand, but I think it's, I think he has lots of chips.

No, I think he has a lot of chips. Let's take a break. Hey, before we get to the LA teams, let's take a break. The Google Assistant is ready to help you get more done with just your voice in the car at home. Everywhere you take your phone when you're driving. You want to listen to a Ringer podcast hands-free. Here's what you say. Just say, hey, Google, play the latest episode of the Dave Chang podcast.

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Just say, Hey Google, to get started. All right. Coming back. We all went over on new Orleans. We'll come back to that in the lock discussion. The last team,

I guess we got to, we got, we got to move faster. We are on a slow pace here. Memphis, 27. Let's go quick on this. The case for over would be John Morant, Jaron Jackson. Something special is happening here. They have some

adults on the team. Valanchunas, Kyle Anderson. I've always liked Tyus Jones. Been kind of waiting to see what happened with him. Getting Dylan Brooks back. They got Jay Crowder, which I just realized like a week ago. I was like, oh, Jay Crowder. He's still a professional player.

It's weird. I'm going over. I think they're high 20s. 27 seems realistic to me, but 28, 29 range, because I think Ja Morant is really fun to play with. And I think he's going to steal some games for them just from the unselfishness and the athleticism.

This Ja and Jackson pairing is kind of what you thought you had in Minnesota a couple years ago where you go, hey, this is the whole point of this. You get two generational talents, and you get them within a year of each other, and now we have Wiggins and we have Towns, and we start spacing the rest of this thing out, and now we're going, hey, do those guys suck? Now, we don't say that about Towns. We definitely say it about Wiggins and we have Towns. We start spacing the rest of this thing out and now we're going, hey, do those guys suck? Now, we don't say that about Towns. We definitely say it about Wiggins now.

And so on paper right now, you have these two pieces. Like, what if this turns out to be special? If they truly are special, it's over. But they played a million guys for an NBA record last year on this roster. All the different guys, new coach, whole thing. I'll just go under now because I'm just not going to bank on a first and second year guy. Hass?

I'm going to say over mainly because I'm jealous of this team. I wish this was the team that I was rooting for here in Washington. I love all of these young guys. I think it's going to be very dynamic watching Jaron and Ja figured out. Dylan Brooks made 503 pointers last night. I forgot what a great stroke he has. I think they're going to play their asses

off. And look, they have Tyler Parker as the coach there in Memphis. He's a pretty good basketball mind, Tyler Parker. Tyler Parker from the ringer? Yeah, Tyler Parker. Have you seen Taylor Jenkins? Oh, he looks like Tyler Parker. He's a dead ringer for Tyler Parker. Have you seen Taylor Jenkins? Oh, he looks like Tyler Parker. He's a dead ringer for Tyler Parker.

Have you seen him? He looks just like him. All right, over for me and house under for Rosillo. And then San Antonio is the last one. Dave, I can't remember how many times we've argued about whether we've given them

the proper enough respect in these over-unders house. This year, the over-under for them is 45 and a half. They somehow won 48 last year. I can't. You go back and look at the fact they won 48. I don't understand it.

And I think they're worse this year. How? With DeJounte back, are they worse? Well, DeRozan and Aldridge are a year older. Yeah, but they were terrific. Aldridge just put together two really good years. Two years ago, he was awesome. I really liked... DeRozan really liked, I like Bertans.

Miss Bertans. No Bertans, you're dropping them under. That's the Simmons downgrade. No, I just, it's the same team as last year and the conference is better. So that, to me, that makes them worse. I can't wait for the Spurs blog. Bill Simmons says Spurs.

Great pop up at Tate's. He's staring at me right now. Spurs. Spurs downgraded Simmons says Spurs. Great pop if it takes you. He's staring at me right now. Spurs. Spurs downgraded because of Bertans from Bill Simmons. I think they go 44-38, 45-37.

46-36 and up seems ambitious to me. I think the conference is too good. They're plus 225 not to make the playoffs, by the way. So you like them more than me.

And I'm still going under. We agree. You just made me feel bad. I just... I don't know why they're worse with DeJounte back because DeJounte was somebody I was probably looking forward to. The situation is worse. I feel like you rounded up the DeRozan Aldridge like they're super old and they aren't.

I'm just going to go ahead. I want this timestamp. This will be the dumbest thing I say on either one of the pods for the West or the East on mine. But not having the Spurs in the playoffs feels like the stupidest thing I could do, and I'm probably going to do it. So I'm going to go under, even though

it's Derek White proving something in the playoffs. You could say it's inconsistent, but thinking of what you thought of him versus what you think of him at the end of this playoff run, and now he has DeJounte there. Lonnie Walker missed some time. I wasn't a huge fan of his out, but that means, you know,

I'm just going to be wrong because it's the Spurs. Everything I just said is wrong and stupid, so go the other way. I like Dallas' roster more than San Antonio's roster. Because of one guy, though. Oh, my God. Huh? No, because of two

guys. That's ludicrous. Well, I just don't, I just don't think, I think the way they play is just not the way to play anymore. And they've kind of held on to this old style and I just don't think it's going to work. And they were bad defensively. They were 30 seconds from bouncing

the 54 win Denver Nuggets out of the effing first round of the playoffs. That had more to do with Denver than San Antonio, I felt like. That was a classic young team actually getting punched in a playoff series and trying to figure it out. I think the combination of... Basically, they're a team that's trying to do things

in a way that nobody else is doing them anymore. They don't care about defense that much. They don't care about threes that much. I wouldn't say they don't care. They just weren't good on that much they don't care about threes that much and I wouldn't say they don't care they just weren't good on defense they were 20th in points per possession well but I mean

the guys that they've put on the roster are not they didn't address it you think Deontay Murray is going to make their defense like remarkably better I just can't believe

I'm looking at them and you know whatever opinion you have of a pop of itch, it's a really hard guy to doubt. I mean, this guy figures it out every single year and I'm arguing for him while I'm picking against them.

So I don't know what the hell, maybe I should just sit there. I'm doing the over. They've gone over 11 times in the past 14 years. And the thing about them is they're a regular season machine. They beat the shit out of teams they should beat. They've won 80% of

their games against sub 500 teams over the past 10 years. 80%. They don't lose to bad teams. I'm taking the over. Well, all good things end. That's where I am with this first.

It's the end of a two-decade run. I don't think this is Belichick and Brady. I think those days are over. I just think the style of basketball they play. Derek White? Just looking at their perimeter guys, it's like DeMar Carroll and Rudy Gay.

It's brutal. I've not a fan. I felt like Rudy gay. Those are like 11th men. Rudy gay. It's part two though, has been more impressive and more extended than I think anybody would have ever thought.

So do we all think Houston for this division as we, that's what Vegas thinks we should think. Yeah. Okay. I love what they're going to be in the regular season. All right. Let's we'll take, we'll take a break. Then we'll go what they're going to be in the regular season. All right. Let's, we'll take,

we'll take a break then we'll go to the last division. Let's take a break to talk about SimpliSafe. According to the FBI, burglary happens an average of once every 23 seconds in the US,

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This is the peak topography division. Now I feel like the Spurs fans are going to come after me because God forbid. Go look at my archives. I've written more nice things about the Spurs than probably anybody other than Zach Lowe. This is the most insecure you've been on the pod. I just say, I don't think they're going to be that good.

Sorry. Sorry, Spurs fans. I don't see it. And I think that the Rosen thing is all what's Aldridge. You see a free agent this year. I think he is right. Yeah.

I'll double check it. I actually think it's more likely that they're a trade team than a 47-win team, but what do I know? Denver Nuggets over under is 53. There's been some action. Minus 130 for them. And then you go to the Utah Jazz. They're over under is 53.5,

and the division for them is plus 110. We'll start with Utah because they are ranked a little bit higher. Mike Conley, they added. Boyan Bogdanovich, they added. They kept Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. Emmanuel Moutier is on this team?

He's cheap, and I'm not a Moutier guy, but the way it was explained to me was... Heat check guy? Third guard. Heat check guy. Why don't you relax, guys? Yeah.

Ed Davis. Joe Engels. Jingle juice. How about some of that jingle juice, Matt? And your hero, Jeff Green. Everyone sends me every Jeff Green highlight on the internet. Is this like his ninth team? Eighth team?

Ninth team? I get like seven DMs on a Saturday. Is this like a 19? 18? 19? It's, I get I'll get like 7 DMs on a Saturday night and be like, man. Jeff Green your guy. Some girls must have gotten hammered. And then it's all Jeff Green content. We'll start here. I'm going over. I think this team's going to be really good

and I love the Mike Conley narrative and him chasing a title. I'm in. I'm all in. And I think Bogdanovich, the last two years, had really turned into a dangerous guy. He sucked in the Celtics playoff series, unfortunately.

But he was the only scoring option. So that was brutal to even watch. And then it's also a team that knows what it is. It's really good defensively. Defense, when you could just fall back on that over the course of an 82-game season is really nice. They have some possible February buyout trade potential

to add one more guy. And Mitchell playing off the ball more with Conley, and all the stuff Conley's going to do, I just love Conley, and I'm excited to see what he does with this team. I'm going over. What do you have, Ursula? Over. I love him as well What do you have, Rusillo? Over. I love him as well for all the stuff you just said, but back to what's going to happen with the Lakers.

Is there any chance for a bad version of this soap opera? There could be. Even so with the Clippers, Houston, I'm not sure about Denver. I think Utah shows up, and it's not 2008 Celtics where it's Pierce individual failure, Ray Allen individual failure, Ray Allen individual failure, same thing with Kevin Garnett, but it feels a little bit like Celtics light 10 years

later, 11 years later, because Conley's getting his brains beaten in Memphis for the majority of his career. Mitchell gets that, oh my gosh, look how much fun this new young rookie that all these teams didn't understand. And then you win this playoff series against Oklahoma City. And then we start to see you with no scoring help. You kind of force the issue. So that almost looked like Westbrook light towards the end of the Mitchell run in this Rocket series. And then it comes back in the World Championships

and it's like new Dwayne Wade and then they finish seventh. Right. Gobert, criminally overlooked statistically. Some of the stats I don't always love, but when you really dig into what the Gobert stuff is, you just go, oh my God, this guy really is that important. And Bogdanovich is a third score in their depth with Ingles and O'Neal. And they have a lot of wings that they can throw at other wings defensively. I think it's a no bullshit team. Quinn's a good coach. and it's a smart front office. So it has all of this, all of this stuff in place that I think avoids the turmoil. That is a possibility, not a guarantee, but a possibility for other teams in the West and a home court advantage, which I think them in Denver, Denver last year, 34 and seven at home, Utah 29 and 12 at home. The altitude, I think, does matter. House.

And the scene in Salt Lake. House. We didn't like Utah last year as a playoff team to bet on because in the last five minutes, it was basically just Donovan Mitchell and then Joe Engels as the second option. I like Joe Engels, but if it's a playoff game, I'm not sure. No, but that's it. My number two option. Now it's Conley. You can run screens with him.

And Bogdanovich is somebody that can create his own shot. It's a little like that Toronto model you mentioned earlier where you can have four guys on the floor with Gobert who can all create their shot. House, what do you think? I like the over so much I'm calling it a lock. I love them at 54 wins. First of all, the over for Utah.

They are always entering the season slightly underrated. Seven, they've gone over seven of the past. Ten, you guys have made the point about the home court advantage. They have 13 home games where they are catching a team coming on a back-to-back, on the backside of a back-to-back. Research. I love that. House.

The defense is spectacular. You know, every year they're in the top 10 defensively. The thing that has always been the holdback with the Jazz is offensive dynamism. We've got that in the form of all these guys we just mentioned. I think this is a team that can push up towards that 60 win mark. I love the over and it is a lock for me. Okay. So let's go right to Denver then, because the big question for me as I looked at this was, do I have to choose between those teams?

Do I have to choose between Denver and Utah or can I like them both and my answer is that I like them both I like this Denver team too they won 54 last year they're over under 53 this year I don't know how they're not better I just hope we name the title of this conference we'll just call it the Bill Simmons overs podcast

no I did this I went over 8 under 7 I did I was careful went over eight, under seven. You did? Okay, Matt. I did. I was careful. So part of my thinking is, I think there's either seven or eight 50-plus win teams every year in the league.

And I just think this year, most of them are going to be in the West. I only have two 50-win teams in the East. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, good luck trying to find that third and fourth 50-win team. It's not going to happen.

Right. So the West is just going to be a situation where we're going to have five teams that are going to have like 53 and up wins. With Denver, I think there's a case that they could be the one seed, and I'm going to make it right now. Playoff chops last year, really important, especially for Jamal Murray, who I think by the end of the playoffs, I felt differently about. Now, you could say the same thing happened with Tatum

and Jalen Brown a year earlier, and then it didn't translate to the regular season. I just like the team. I like the ad of Jeremy Grant. I thought they needed a better version of what Will Barton was doing for them. I think he's somebody that could play crunch time for them. I like the weird Monte

Morris can come off the bench and get hot every once in a while. The Porter Jr. thing is the next factor. Beasley has another come-off-the-bench guy. And I think they're well-coached, and I think Jokic is an absolute lock him down as a top-four MVP candidate. What do you think?

House, I'll let you go first. I'm going to take the under. I think that they are terrific And I think 52 wins Is you know that puts them Right there In that 50 win The teams at 50 in the west

They're there There's no question about it I saw this is again shout outs to Matt Moore Action Network. Djokic just played the most basketball in his entire basketball life because he went straight from the NBA playoffs into supporting his Serbian henchmen in the world. Sounds derogatory.

He did look like he ran out of a little steam last year at different points in time. I think you're asking a lot to get to 54, 55 wins out of this team. It's a lot of pressure on guys like Bobo. I don't love what I saw out of Paul Millsap at the end of last year. Bobo's not playing. Yeah, Bobo was not part of my breakdown. Yeah, i haven't

no no i'm just saying as the season progresses you have to go all the way down to the end of the bench to um you know build up what i think is going to be you know milsap you can't get uh he's 34 years old now i this is again 52 wins is not it's not it's not a bad team um i'm just taking a a tiny under for the Nuggets. That's all. All right. What do you have, Rosillo? I'm going under as well.

Okay. And they may end up being the one seed. But when people talk about them winning the West, I'm always a little surprised. Yes, they went 34-7 at home, but that also means they were under 500 on the road. And if you're a really great team. Yeah.

If you're a great team, 2021, right? 2021, yeah. They're, they should be better than that. And we can go off the playoff experience. I would argue they overachieved though last year.

It was a little 96-pats-ish. It was the year before the year. Because the number two, because Murray didn't feel like the consistent two until the playoffs. No. And even during the playoffs

didn't feel like a consistent number two. No, not at all. I mean, the beginning of that San Antonio series, you go, well, what's,

what's going on here? Late game. Like, what are they doing? And then can you run it through? Can the things you do with Jokic late game, but this is one of those things. Stop talking about what my playoff concerns are with them and look at them

as a regular season team. It's the exact same team. So maybe that's good. Sometimes I'm sitting there being like, the Jeremy Grant thing is a big deal. That guy is really good. It's the exact same team, so maybe that's good. Sometimes I'm sitting there It's not the exact same team. The Jeremy Grant thing is a big deal. That guy is really good.

It's still the same guard rotation. It's still Malik Beasley. But young guards who are going to be a year older, though. Yeah, and Beasley took a huge jump after the first two years of not even playing

to hitting 40% of his threes last year and scoring in double digits. Sometimes I wonder, hey, do you like Beasley too much? And then you go back and look at the numbers and go, you know,

this guy now has proven himself to be a rotation player in this league as opposed to somebody that's an afterthought. The Michael Porter Jr. thing, I don't know what that means.

Bowl Bowl, if he does play. Michael Porter Jr. is a fun wrinkle to this, though. It is, because then it could change everything. But it's hard for me to go, yeah, the kid I saw in high school three years ago,

pencil him in for impacting what could be the one seed in the West. With the herniated discs. Yeah. I'll give you one more case for this for the over. This is the most logical mega trade team. And I'm not saying like mega trade. They have Millsap's contract. They have Millsap's contract.

They have Gary Harris. You know, until Beal signed with Washington today, and I don't know if that makes him more likely to get traded or less likely to get traded, but this was the logical Bradley Beal team this whole time because they give Harris back. You put Porter Jr. in there. You put four draft picks in there, and all of a sudden you have a Bradley Beal trade.

Yeah, I mean, everybody's trading their draft picks now, which is, I mean, Oklahoma City has 15 waiting for them. Washington's going to just be like, we need four first-rounders to talk about this. I think Washington looks at, which is, I mean, Oklahoma City has 15 waiting for them. Washington's going to just be like, we need four first-rounders to talk about this. I think Washington looks at, you know, the old red Auerbach rule was a year isn't that long of a time. Yeah. And they go, let's just see what it looks like when they come back

with Walsh. What kind of lottery pick they get. I think the Beal contract. Oh my God. No, I'm serious. Do you want them to trade Beal or not? Or should we save that for part two? Of course I want them to trade Beal. We'll get there when we talk about Washington. Yes, I want them to trade Beal. Save that for part two. Of course I do. I think there's now, Beal or not? Or should we save that for part two? Of course I want them to trade Beal. We'll get there when we talk about Washington. Yes, I want them to trade Beal. Save that for part two. Of course I do. Now, Beal would be the highest

upside, but there's other guys. There's ways for them to improve this team. And I think that's important to think about with the over-unders is the roster we're looking at now might not be the roster in February. And this is, to me, a prime candidate of either a buyout guy or actually a trade. And if they have a chance, a prime candidate of either a buyout guy or actually a trade.

And if they have a chance, let's say Sacramento says, shit, we got to do something about this Buddy Heald thing. Like, he's going to tank our season. Oh, you'll give us Gary Harris and a number one pick for Buddy Heald? And then we don't have to pay Buddy Heald $25 million a year? Okay. And now Buddy Heald's on this team with Jamal Murray. I'm just saying,

I think there's possibilities like that with them. Even as is. I'm not going to be surprised if they end up with the one seed. I'm not going to be surprised if they're the over. I would be,

which has nothing to do with this. If they won the West in the playoffs, that would surprise me. Okay. All right. So I am going over 53, which unfortunately puts me in common with America since the line is minus 130 and you guys are going under. Let's go. Here's another one that

the blog's going to come after us if we don't say things they like. The Portland Trailblazers. Over under. This is one if I was guessing what the over unders would be if I called house, I would have been like three wins off. The over-under for them is 46 and a half, which seems really high when you factor in the following things. Might not have Nurkic for most of the year. They think he can come back, but I just, that injury, I'm going to say if we see him by March, that's great.

Hassan Whiteside in this place, who has been one of the most untradeable guys in the league for two, three years. Their wings, they're basically relying on Rodney Hood, Kent Bazemore, and Anthony Simons, and Mario Hazonia to be their perimeter defenders. And I don't trust any of those dudes, even Rodney Hood, who was in that ringer thing.

And then, you know, they have Lillard and McCollum and hoping for the Zach Collins thing but I think there's a lot of evidence that this team could go sideways I'm not a white side guy at all I really I do I did not like that pickup for them I know why it made sense I'm going under 46 and a half throwing the conference. It's a borderline lock for me. What do you think, Rosillo? I can't stand Whiteside. I haven't been able to stand him for a really long time. I mean, he's one of those everybody's out to get me type of dudes.

And it's like, no, it's on you, man. I mean, it's you. Spolster's not sitting you because Spolster's an idiot. But I do understand why Portland did it. It was basically explained to me of all the moving pieces they needed to shake this thing up and give themselves some insurance for nurkic which means unfortunately and i'm afraid that this is happening is as skilled as zach collins is his footwork as a postman and his just the fakes where he positions himself i mean this is advanced advanced kevin mckale type shit out of zach collins the problem is he gets his ass kicked every time he's out there.

Defensively. Yeah, but he gets pushed around too. Like you watch him around the glass, even if he's just either end of the floor trying to get boards, he gets pushed around a little too much. So I worry, and maybe they just go, hey, of all these moving things, we'll take in the white side thing because it's stuff going out.

But what they did in moving some of the stuff out is they got rid of their forward depth. Amino and Harkless, who I don't think any of us were totally happy with. At least they've been in big games. But now you're going, are you going to play Whiteside with Collins?

No. I can't imagine that. So then is it Bazemore? Is it Hood? Is it Hazonia? I mean, how are you chasing around other forwards? So I worry about them a little defensively. And also their backcourt defensively has never been like a home run either. I like both of those guys a lot.

There's no part of me. I was looking at some of these top 100, top 50 stuff. Like CJ McCollum being behind Trey Young in a top 50 list is fucking stupid. Is that on a list? Yeah. Like that guy shouldn't be allowed to do lists anymore. Like I found, I just going through and all the prep, all the different lists and some of the numbers are just so.

Someone put Trey Young over CJ McCollum? Yeah. I mean, some of the stuff is nuts. Oh my God. So this is a pro, like I am pro Portland front office. I love Stotts. I love the backcourt. I hope Collins and I know he's young, but it was a little alarming. I'm not as pro Portland front office. I love Stotts. I love the backcourt. I hope Collins. And I know he's young, but it was

a little alarming. I'm not as pro Portland front office. I think they do a nice job of buttering everybody up. You think so? You think Olshay's just, he's just smooth with everybody? I think they threw Miami one of the all-time bones. Hey, we'll take Hassan Whiteside from you. Miami's like, really? The Evan Turner contract is a better anti-front office argument. If you want to. That contract's terrible. It was awful. Right. But they got rid of it.

So here's the catch house. They can flip this Whiteside contract for Kevin Love pretty quickly and throw in another asset. And, you know, everyone says how Anthony Simons is such an asset. He's untradeable. But that's also Portland telling you that? You know, it's like if I had Anthony Simons at their hand, I'd be like, man, that that's also Portland telling you that, you know, it's like, if I had Anthony Simons at the ring, I was like, man, that guy's amazing. I would never trade him. And at some point you'd be suspicious. You'd be like, why do you keep telling me how untradeable Anthony

Simons is? Well, you weren't letting him do any podcasts. He wasn't working. Um, I do think there's Kevin Love potential. Obviously he's from the Pacific Northwest. House, if they got Kevin Love, would that change your opinion on the over? Sure. This is the right number for them, that 46.5. I'm taking the under. I don't mean this to be disrespectful. I just think that some of these West teams that have gotten better

are going to hoover up some wins. Portland's going to drop out of the 50-win category by a handful of games. I do think that they're going to miss the rotation guys that we were talking about in Harkless and Aminu. And I mean, Nurkic is the guy that stirs the drink and when, you know, it's just a lot of waiting around for him to come back.

I just 46 is my number, but love coming into the mix does change the equation so we'll i'll lose my under if love joins the scene is everyone just doing the love thing because of geography or is everybody just repeating the same stuff or do you actually think based on people you've talked to that that's something that portland wants to do well i just think they check all the boxes right they have the big expiring contract to send back they're a playoff team which is if he was going to get traded i would assume he send back. They're a playoff team, which is if he was going to get traded, I would assume he would want to go to a playoff team. And he's somebody that actually makes sense on their team.

I mean, he doesn't make sense. He certainly doesn't make them better defensively. No, but he can still shoot it. Him and Collins playing together, I like the fit. The four-year $120 million extension kicks in now for Love. I don't know what their options are with him. The way it's been described is that they think in beeline system

playing a full season, like Cleveland looks at Love as an asset. So it's not you're helping us out and taking the contract off our hands. It's you need to pay us for this awesome stretch four who hits threes and rebounds. We'll be back in October spin after this Dwight Howard,

we think he can be a 2010 guy again. If they run him more post touches. Do the Simon saying, do you have any opinion? I told you before that he is there. The one of the wildcard guys this season. I, what was the,

what was the quote I had on the podcast this spring? What? That I talked to somebody in Portland and it was that if the draft had Anthony Simons in, I forget how high was the pick because it made the rounds

everywhere. Who knows? I do like... Do you think I'm being lied to so I go on your podcast and it increases trade value? I don't know. I do think they float stuff to people who have microphones.

Yeah, but they wouldn't do that to me, Bill. I do like Kent Bazemore, and he was an awesome ringer employee, and we miss him. And I think on this team, so the case for the team is Bazemore is actually better than the guys they lost last year. And then... Whiteside buys in for a year.

They just figure it out and he actually becomes the Whiteside from four years ago. I think that guy's long gone. But what do I know? But the other thing too is that Whiteside can put up great stats and it still doesn't like, there's some empty stat stretches for Whiteside where you go, Oh my God,

look at these numbers. And then Spolster's like, all right, let's get them off the floor. Close, close game last three minutes. He was like, that tells you more about any rebounding number.

He is definitely one of those. We'll drive you to the airport to make sure you get on the plane guys when they traded him. It's like, Hey, can we, can we take you to the Miami airport? No, I got a car. Well, no, we got your car. We just want to make sure you get on the plane, guys, when they traded him. It's like, hey, can we take you to the Miami airport? No, I got a car.

Well, no, we got your car. We just want to make sure. Can we handle your suitcases? Oklahoma City. We're all going under in Portland, by the way. Oklahoma City, their over-under is 32. Their roster is kind of shockingly competent. When I looked at the death chart, I was like,

I kind of shockingly competent. Like when I looked at the death chart, I was like, I kind of like this team. I think there's some really incredible, I repeat, incredible Ewing theory potential. House, right now, your Washington Nationals are riding the Ewing theory like it's secretariat.

The over-under for OKC is 32. They won nothing with Russell Westbrook. Nothing. Is there any Ewing theory of potential at all here? No. Okay. But that doesn't mean they can't win 33 games,

and I'm taking the over for Oklahoma City. I mean, the problem with Oklahoma City is tell me the team at Christmas time. Tell me the team in February. I have no idea what this roster is going to look like. But as I look at it right this second, that's a 33 win team in the West. Sure. Sure. That's a 30 win team.

Chris Paul, who is in really good shape because I think he's expecting to get traded. We have Shea Gilgis-Alexander. Roberson Roberson is back. Gallinari, 20 points a game last year. And in a contract here. And I thought Gallinari was really good last year. He sucked in the playoffs, unfortunately. Then Steven Adams.

It's a professional basketball team. I'm going slightly over. I think they're in the 33 to 35 range. I wonder if Westbrook's like, hey, can I go back now? Because there's a guy like Danilo who can stretch the floor a little bit. I don't want to call Danilo the Euro KD. But when I looked at the roster, you're right. You're like, I think Steven Adams is going to be better.

Danilo healthy. But watching more Clippers games, you're like, this dude can score. I mean, there's a reason why there was an excitement about him for a little while. He's just kind of off the grid. And Shea Gilgis-Alexander, for Thunder fans that have not watched him closely, once you see it, it is incredibly impressive. Just watching him move around the floor. He's really, really possibly special.

For George, I always wish I knew everything. I mean, we can't, but know what the Clippers would have done and what the Thunder would have done. What do they tell their own staff separately? This is as far as we're willing to go. Is there any version of that trade where the Clippers didn't have to give up Shea Gildress Alexander? You can say, well, wait a minute. You don't know for Paul George you have to do this.

Yeah, but they did all these picks. And Paul George is telling you, I want out. Sometimes that price is way off. And the Thunder were able to get him in this. And maybe I'm building up Gildress Alexander too much. But that's an awesome backcourt and Paul for all the knocks on him wait a second though the double point guard

thing that always worries me because Chris is a guy likes having the ball in his hand if I were OKC I would want Shea to have the ball I don't want him playing as an off the ball guard I'd want him to have the ball now I think he could do it,

but I think ultimately... I don't want him... Yeah, I don't want him... Ultimately, this needs to be his team. Yeah, I don't want Shea watching and then them staggering the minutes where they're always in together. I think, if anything,

we learn that Paul Harden thing when you stagger it. It's just... It's very doable. Like, more teams should do that during the regular season. It's something the Sixers are going to do. They did it last year, and we'll do that when we talk about the East.

Who's the team that never did it? Oh, Scotty Brooks when he had Durant and Russ. Because they said they never wanted to split up. Yeah, that was smart. That was those two guys, and then Brooks was like, right, you want to argue with Westbrook? Fine. House. Coach of the Wizards, by the way. House.

Chris Paul is always in the playoffs and his teams are always successful. Why wouldn't this team be successful other than a staggering lack of roster talent? A Gallinari injury and or they start off slow and since they're sort of straddling the line about what direction they want to go with the franchise, they just go ahead and start trading assets early in the season.

But like 33 wins is so low. I can't talk myself into going under it. When I said staggering lack of raw talent, I meant the depth. Because I really genuinely like the top five, but then you go into Diallo, Terrence Ferguson. I've never totally gotten that one. Ferguson had moments, though, last year. He's really from a no way to a, oh, there might be something here.

At least I'd raise him up a tier from no way to there might be something here. But I think he's had some moments, guy. If we had the all-star team of those guys, he'd be like, you're signing Yabasele. He's watching a blowout in Miami once. He had a couple moments. Those guys never end up making it. That's fine.

That's fine. But it's not. There's some guys you watch, you go, what the hell is going on here? RJ Hunter. It's always the, you play them sporadic minutes their first year, and then there's always that bump the second year to prove that you can't play, and then they'll never play. There's so many players that flame out that their biggest career opportunity was that second season where the team was basically like we're not sure and i know people are listening

to this being like under under under chris paul he's going to be traded he's going to be traded when he got traded in that westbrook deal and everybody said he's never going to suit up i was consistently telling everybody yes you are he's he's going to play for the Thunder this year. He's going to play the entire season for them because nobody's trading for him. He's 38.5 this year. He's 41.5 next year. And in 21-22, he

has a player option that I can go ahead and report now that he's going to pick up at 44.1 million. Breaking. No one is immovable. I don't believe that. Any contract can be moved. Well, they would have to pony up some of the firsts. But for somebody to go, oh, he's just, well, you know, this deal was done.

He's never going to play for Oklahoma City. You know, here we are. We're ready to go. I don't think Miami, I think Miami is going to be good, and they don't need to do a panic trade to buy into Chris Paul. They're going to see what Dragic is, too. Well, and also, I think if they going to be good and they don't need to do a panic trade to buy into what Dragic is too. So, well,

and also I think if they make a trade, I think Lowry is a much smarter bet for them. I do want to see Butler and Paul play together. It would be fun, but I think Minnesota would be the other team. But as we go through these conferences, we haven't even gotten to Minnesota yet. Why would Minnesota do that?

They're not going to make the playoffs anyway. Why would you want to pay Chris Paul 44 million a year? Unless towns was like, do this or I'm leaving. Now, if he does that, that changes the equation. So we're all going over? Yes. Okay. Last one.

Minnesota, ironically. Their over-under is 35.5. So it's actually higher than OKC. My apologies for not doing them before this. I was surprised the over-under was that high a half. So it's actually higher than OKC. My apologies for not doing them before this. I was surprised the over-under was that high. I look at the team. Teague and Wiggins, one of my least favorite backcourts. I'm kind of just tired of watching both of those guys play basketball.

According to this website, the starting small forward is Jake Lehman this year. But I would assume it's going to be Jared Culver, especially because they moved up. And then Covington and Towns. Unless Towns does an Anthony Davis from two years ago to start the first couple of months of the season, I don't see how this isn't like a 32 and 50 or worse team. I'm going under yet again.

Priscilla? So if you look at the guys going out, Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones, who set the record for assist turnover ratio last year. I mentioned him earlier. I've always liked that guy. Tolliver, Tosh. Take that for data.

Well, dang, Jared Bayless. Jake Lehman, Shabazz Napier. So, you could wonder if LeBron would try to trade for him at some point Jordan Bell, Noah Vonley, Trevion Graham I don't know what Culver's going to be was that a G League team or was that their roster you didn't clarify

Culver is better with the ball which is a weird spot for him as a rookie who's going to be playing off of these guys. Wiggins at 24, he was so good two years ago. At least we thought he was so good. It felt like this guy's 24 a game, 36% from three. Last year was the worst season of his career.

Yeah. So you're like, how is this happening? Why were we at one point on basketballreference.com calling Andrew Wiggins Maple Jordan? That didn't happen, did it? Yes, no. Go to basketballreference.com, my favorite game ever, and find nicknames for people you've never seen ever used.

Eric Bledsoe, Mini LeBron. Yeah, that's where I found the Deion Waiters one where his nickname is kobe eric but says nickname was mini lebron i've never heard it but it is on his basketball reference.com so maple jordan is there for wiggins anyway basically i'm just doing this whole thing towns numbers are incredible we already know that we know how special he is but wiggins is such a no from me that even though i wanted to say over because I actually like the size that they have. Yeah.

For their starting five and maybe kind of zag when everybody's just so off the T-wolves. When Wiggins says finally, like now that we have some some leadership and a change in direction, all these things like now it's time to go get my all star thing. You're like, no, no, no, no. It shouldn't have anything to do with any of those things. They've taken care of you. They've given you every shot you've ever wanted. And you check out of games. It has nothing to do with anybody else.

He's the all-time, you're at the game, and he does something and you're like, oh, I forgot he was out there. Absolutely. It's like he's been out there for a half hour. You had no idea. House, what are your thoughts i'm going way under on this team i'm going so far under this is a lock for me and this is just

the classic joe house petty bet a petty wager because last year i bet with my own hard-earned greenback american dollars on them getting to 40 wins, I think. And they took off. So they're a competitive team throughout the season. I liked a little bit of the Ewing theory potential with Jimmy Butler. Because the drama with Butler was stirring as the season started last year. I thought getting rid of him might have an addition by subtraction effect. I'm going to go right at the big guy, and I know all the T-Wolves stans are going to come at me again. Here's what I'd like to see out of Carl Anthony Towns.

I know he's an incredible offensive player and at his age and everything. Please send me the sizzle reel of him playing defense in the fourth quarter. If you think that you can find 60 seconds worth of Carl Anthony Towns playing defense in close games in the fourth quarter, I'll give you all the money that I lost last year on them getting to 40 effing wins. I hate the T-Wolves. They stink. The only redeemable aspect of them is I really do like Ryan Saunders,

and I'm rooting for him, and I want him to succeed. But F the T-Wolves, house under lock. Let's take a break, and we'll recap this and also do million-dollar picks for the NFL. Let's talk about Luminary, a podcast subscription service with some of the best content around. I am excited about Luminary. It's subscription service with some of the best content around. I am excited about Luminary.

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After that, it's only $7.99 per month. Luminary.link slash Simmons. Cancel anytime. Terms do apply. Okay, we're going through. Rosillo, you can do either three or four locks. You have seven locks total, Eastern Conference, Western Conference. You can use either three or four during this podcast. I'm going to read all the over and unders that we picked,

and you guys can tell me which ones are lock. Dallas Mavericks, 40 and a half. I went over. House and Rosillo went under. No locks so far. Houston, over 54. All of us are over on this one. Memphis, under 27 for Rosillo, over 27 for me and house.

The New Orleans Pelicans, 39 and a half. All of us went over. I am using my lock, one of my locks on this one. New Orleans, over 39 and a half lock. Are you guys using yours? I too would like to use a lock on the Pelicans. House? And I will, let's make it unanimous. Great.

It's a triple lock. It's a triple lock. And then San Antonio, 45 and a half. Russel and I went under. House went over. I don't want nothing to do with doing any kind of lock on this number with the Spurs. Yeah. Especially

the under. Great. Oh, we didn't say. So for the division, we think Houston minus 350 would be the pick. Okay. Oh, and then next division. Denver, 53 wins. I went over. You guys went

under. Minnesota, 35 and a half under across the board. You guys went under. Minnesota, 35 and a half. Under across the board. House has a lock. F-U lock. Oklahoma City Thunder, all of us went over at 32. Yeah, put me down for a lock on that. Over?

Yeah. Wow. Lock it in. Okay. Portland Trailblazers, 46 and a half. We all went under. People are going to freak about that one because they're going to go Western Conference. But just to reiterate, I always think it's important to remember this.

Just because you get to the Western Conference Finals, much like the Jets and back-to-back AFC title games, sometimes you get to visit those neighborhoods. It doesn't mean you live there. Wow. You just got a grunt from Kyle. He really liked that.

He liked how you put that one. He's going to say that to a cocktail waitress this weekend. Maybe tonight. Utah Jazz, 53 and a half. All of us went over.

I'm applying a lock to that one. Ooh, another lock used went over. I'm applying a lock to that one. Ooh, another lock used. Okay. My third lock. Your third lock. Okay, Haas. Golden State Warriors. 48 and a half. Lock under. All of us went

under. I am going lock under as well. It's just a gentle under for me. Soft, caressing under. I am going lock under as well. It's just a gentle under for me. Soft caressing under? Yes. It's okay. Kyle, use that line. 48 and a half. Clippers.

53. We all went over. I want to use a lock on that over as well. Yeah? Okay. I just don't understand. How are they not... Although, you know, it's very easy. I could argue any side of any of this stuff now, but do they worry about free agency

with Kawhi and Paul George already? Two years from now. So they have to do whatever those guys want. Because I have thought about a column. If you still wrote, Bill, you could take this idea from not a writer like you I know maybe I'll write it yeah you should read it the year is 2028

players can play when they want to and you know Patrick Beverly led the league in games played with 30 we don't have teams anymore yeah right guys just travel to pick up games. Is the name of the book

I'll play whenever the fuck I want to? That's right. Laker. I might use my over on the Clippers. I haven't decided yet. I'm hedging there too. I'm on the same standby as you on that one. You've already used three. Lakers over under

50. House and I went over. Rosillo went under. Phoenix, over, under, 29 and a half. I went under.

You guys went over. Sacramento, over 38. All of us went over. All right. So, how many did you use? I think I used four there.

You did? So I need a third one. I have under for Golden State. I just don't want to have to use them on the East. That's why I'm going to join the over. I'm going to put a lock on the Clippers because that's my fourth in the West. I want Clippers, OKC, Golden State. I'm doing the Clippers as well.

That's going to be my third lock. That Lakers number 50, though, just as you guys said it again, you're going, are they really not going to get to 50 wins? They might be the best team. They really might be the best team, but I just...

They're going to get to do whatever they want to do. I can't do it because it's weird. You laid out all the Davis stuff and I still don't totally trust him. I'm just using three. I'm going to save mine for part two on the Rosillo podcast.

Quickly, million-dollar picks. Here's what we're looking at. We lost $155,000 last week, down $390,000 for this season, but we're winning it all back because the Colts are playing again. Colts minus one against Houston, their home. I don't understand why this line is in three. I'm personally insulted on behalf of the Ewing Theory, Colts fans, Jacoby Brissett. I think they're better.

I think they're going to win. We're putting $500,000 on this house. You good with that? Yeah, it's the Colts at home. They had two weeks to prepare for this because they're coming off the bye week. Darius Leonard's healthy again. This is Frank Reich against Bill O'Brien. Yes, I like

the Colts to win this game. Minus one. Any thoughts, Rossello, quickly? You can abstain. Real quick. Everybody hates Bill O'Brien, huh? Everybody just thinks he sucks. He's a bumbling fool. We didn't say that. I don't know. The way the house just did that. It's like Frank Reich versus Bill O'Brien, huh? Everybody just thinks he sucks. He's a bumbling fool. I don't. We didn't say that.

I don't know. The way the house just did that. It's like Frank Reich versus Bill O'Brien. I mean, you just made it. He does suck. Oh, hey, there we go. That's all I want to hear. Okay.

Yeah. All right. And then. What's the case? Give me the Bill O'Brien case. Yeah. Give us the Bill O'Brien case. Go back and look at all the quarterbacks he's had and remain competitive with.

He's going to kill Deshaun Watson. Deshaun Watson has been untouched. He's going to be single-handedly responsible for that murder. The last couple weeks, even the price they gave him for Tunsil, the last couple weeks, he's been untouched. Deshaun Watson. Let me just tell you right now. Coming up next, who's untouched?

I'll tell you. A guy in Houston. The other one we're doing, the Patriots are minus 10 against the Jets on Monday night. The Niners are minus nine and a half against, I'm blanking, who are they playing, House? The Deadskins, Daddy. Yeah, I set you up for that.

10.3 team teasing those two with five teams. We're going to spread these out and try to go four and one. So moving the Pats down even, moving the Niners to plus one and a half, putting 100K minus 120 odds on. The Eagles plus three, moving them to plus 13.

They're at Dallas Sunday night. That's a three-point game. I don't know who wins, but that's a close game. Nobody's blowing out anybody in that game. Raiders, plus five and a half in Green Bay. I'm bringing them all the way up to 15 and a half.

No Devontae Adams again. I actually think they could win that game. Lions, plus one and a half. They're playing home against Minnesota. The Lions should have won last week. They got kind of robbed I'm bringing them to 11.5

the Saints are 3.5 in Chicago bringing them to 13.5 and the Bills minus 16.5 at home against Miami dropping them down to 6.5 putting $100,000 on each and there's a catch after these go through

whatever the profit is on those five, I'm then putting it on Jets plus 10 and I'm going to try to middle it. I'm going to try to middle the profits because I think that Pats game, I think the Pats win, but I don't think they win by more than 10. So that's what we're doing.

It sounds so good. Thank you. On Thursday. Yeah, on Thursday. Sounds great. Isn't it? Oh, they're like, yeah. Thank you. On Thursday. Yeah, on Thursday. Sounds great. Isn't it? They're like, yeah. Of course.

The Boston Herald at college going through it all, being like, yeah, right? That's a no-brainer. What do you think, Sully? So, House, which one of those third teams in the three-teamer worries you the most? Man, it's so many points. I'll just say

the Bills, I guess. I mean, I can't really make the case. Fitz Magic did lead the Dolphins to 14 points and almost a full comeback against the Deadskins. That's the best case I can come up with. The Bills, you know, scoring challenge, that's

it. But we have double digits on all these other guys with the 10-point keys. I was just thinking their defense would win the game by seven by themselves. Yeah, I know. That's the only one, though, that I can come up with. I can't mount the case. You're not going to get

me to argue that the Saints are going to lose by 14. I could knock the Bills out and just do Eagles, Raiders, Lions, Saints. It's up to you. I feel pretty comfortable that the Bills are going to win by a touchdown. Can the Bills beat the Dolphins

by a touchdown, Rosillo? Their defense is that good. Now, it's not New England, and I actually think San Francisco's defense is better than New England's. I know what the stats say, but I know it in my eyes. That's like your 10th zag in the podcast. I don't even think that's a zag. I do want to give.

Jesus. This is not part of the million dollar pitch. Kyle Shanahan is going to score 90 points against the Deadskins. He's going to vindicate his father's legacy in Washington against Daniel Snyder by pulling down the pants of Daniel Snyder and Bruce Allen and making them rub their tiny wieners against each other. And then he's going to climb to the top of FedEx stadium and rain down a poop on the whole thing.

Or I don't know where that game is. Or do you think that Bill, um, well, I don't know why Bill Belichick would be there, but... Callahan? No. Do you think that Bill Callahan, who had the... I remember the first time I thought I might be smart in sports was when I go,

why does everybody say if you run it 25 or more times, your winning percentage goes up? When it's probably because you're running the ball out. Yeah. That was one of the first things you're killing the clock i don't even know if i was 20 and i'd read something and you just go all these guys on these shows keep saying well you know shows if you run it 20 or more times your win percentage goes to 67 you're like that doesn't there's something wrong with that because then you would just have to run it all the time and i remember we had a researcher at ESPN that would put all these notes together and every fucking note would be like

22 and four since 2005 when they run it this many times. Lombardi does rushes and completions together. Well, that's smart. I think it's like 45. That means you had the ball. Like Seattle is a good rushes and completions team. So Callahan recently said,

we're going to run the football. History tells you. And you immediately are like immediately like oh my god it's 2019 so I'm wondering if Shanahan does put it on the Redskins will there be a moment where Dan Snyder looks at him walks down to the field they see each other from across like notebook style across the field they do embrace And then Snyder on the spot says, what does it take to get you back home? And Dan Snyder says, I was misinformed. LeBron said I was misinformed with my information. I don't know. I was trying to pull LeBron in this somehow.

Yeah, that was amazing. I watched it happen. How is he going to pull this off? We have made fun of LeBron this whole podcast. We've not brought up. Let's do that on your podcast okay alright so Colts

minus one 500k Pats Niners three team tees 100k a piece with Eagles plus three Raiders plus five and a half Lions plus one and a half

Saints plus three and a half Bills minus 16.5 whatever I make from those five whatever profit and then putting that profit on Jets plus 10 and trying to pull off the rarely seen but glorious middle. Are you serious, Scott?

Part two of this podcast, the East, over-unders, me, Rosillo House. You have to subscribe to the Ryan Rosillo Podcast on the Ringer Podcast Network. And that's how you will get it. You will not get it on this podcast. I don't know why you wouldn't want to listen to it. We will see you there for part two. All right. Thanks to ZipCruiter. Don't forget to go to zipcruiter.com slash BS. Thanks to SimpliSafe. When it comes to home security, SimpliSafe, the best choice, hands down. They protect every door, window, and room, 24-7 professional monitoring, $15 a month, no

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SimpliSafe with two I's. See you on part two. The Ryan Rosillo podcast. Go there now. On the wayside I'm a bruised son Never lost it I don't have To ever forget