The Bill Simmons Podcast - NBA Panic Watch With Rob Mahoney, Plus the Scrambling QB Era and Million-Dollar Picks With Benjamin Solak and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: October 28, 2022

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Rob Mahoney to discuss the Warriors' win over the Heat, and NBA "panic teams" through the season's first two weeks (3:57). Then, Bill talks with Fox Sports and NFL Network's Peter Schrager about the Chiefs trading for WR Kadarius Toney, updated Super Bowl odds, and which NFL teams could be in real trouble (36:41), before talking with The Ringer's Benjamin Solak about the NFL's shift toward running QBs, questionable coaching, the Falcons under-utilization of TE Kyle Pitts, some Week 8 games, and more (1:02:09). Finally, Schrager comes back on to discuss the death of the three-team NFL parlay, favorite matchups for the week, and the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 8 (1:35:06). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney, Peter Schrager, and Benjamin Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Rewatchables, we put up The Edge on Monday with me and Van Lathan. Had a little breakout video, Would You Rather Be Killed by a Bear or a Shark that we put up on that one on the Twitter. And most people picked the bear. To me, it's a no-brainer. It's a shark.

I made the case for it. Anyway, if you missed it, check out my Twitter feed. We ran the clip for that. Coming up, we're going to do a little late-night basketball talk with the Ringers' Rob Mahoney, and then Benjamin Solak and Peter Schrager are on. We're talking million-dollar picks, running QBs, possible sleeper contenders that aren't the Chiefs, Bills, or Eagles.

Games we like for million-dollar picks, which took a brutal beating thanks to the Patriots. We were going to have the biggest week we ever had, and then all of a sudden it fell apart. Speaking of falling apart, we taped all the football part of the podcast. I'm taping this down. It's a little before two o'clock PT. Jamar Chase now out four to six weeks. We had a whole thing with Schrager about how the Bengals were kind of the lurking contender under the top three. And we didn't know Jamar Chase had hadn't come out yet that he hurt his hip

and he's gone four to six weeks. We also had them in million dollar picks. We had a money line parlay with the dolphins and the Bengals. That's not the window. I just took that out a million dollar picks. Classic. It's just typical for million dollar picks. Love the dolphins, Bengals parlay. And, It's just typical for million dollar picks. Love the

Dolphins-Bengals parlay. And then somebody gets hurt right after we make it. Plus, Jamar Chase, one of the most fun players in the league. He's on every fantasy team that I have. And the lesson, as always, with fantasy football, if you're in a 10 team league, there's a 90% chance you're going to be super unhappy. And if you're in a 12-team league, it's like a 92% chance. I am super unhappy right now. Not to mention two segments were not destroyed, but a little mutilated. That's one of the dangers of taping the podcast

on a Thursday. But when you listen to the Bengals part, just keep it in the back of our heads. Back of your head, we did not know that Jamar Chase was out. Hope he comes back soon. I still believe in this Bengals team. But there you go. Anyway, Rob Mahoney is here with Tiffany. This is 930 Pacific time.

Just watched a couple of late night basketball games. We had a plan A and a plan B. Plan A was if the Warriors looked like crap again against Miami, then we're going to have to have the official, all right, should we start worrying about the Warriors conversation? They showed up tonight. They look good. There's a Miami conversation I really want to have.

But from a Warriors standpoint, when you start to get worried, do you feel better? I feel a little better. And that feels weird in a game in which they still gave up 110 points, but that feels like improvement based on where we're starting. They have a lot of work to do. And it's one of those things where all of

their continuity is in their starting lineup. And so every time they veer outside it, it's guys that either weren't on the team last season or just like were not playing last season any meaningful minutes. And when they're incorporating those guys guys the defense has not been there but is that because it won't work or is it because it's October

you know yeah it seems like a work in progress but it also had the losses started amount a little bit the game before this one was a little alarming against Phoenix I'm with you I'm not ready to completely panic yet.

I do think, though, Draymond and Clay are entering a different point of their careers and how they handle it. I thought the most interesting thing about the Phoenix, the Booker-Clay stuff on Tuesday wasn't just them going at it. I think Clay was really frustrated because Booker was kicking his ass.

And I went to the Bird-Dr. J game when they got in the fight and the reason they got in the fight was because Bird was kicking his ass for three and a half quarters and talking shit Dr. J was getting madder and madder and finally he snapped and I think for Clay that felt like uh I'm moving into my different phase of my career and I'm not ready to accept it yet moment. And Draymond, same thing. Draymond moving into a different phase of his career. And the thing is, the difference between being a star and being a good player is stars have reliability and consistency. And good players, every once in a while can be good. And then other times, you don't know what you're getting. And I do wonder if they're entering that stage with them. I'm watching. I'm not officially declaring. I got in trouble a week ago with David Lillard saying I was worried about his burst. I'm not declaring this, but

it's a plot I'm watching. Are these guys moving into a different phase of their career? What do you think? Yeah. I mean, I think all the Warriors stuff, like, do you want to pencil in a summit for January where we reconvene and we figure out if all this stuff is real or not because I am with you. There are warning signs. With Clay, there are warning signs going back to last year's playoffs, going back to different stages, and he was able to answer them in different ways. You're right, though.

The Booker thing was interesting. And on the flip side of that, I thought the way Devin Booker talked about Clay Thompson was interesting. As a very venerable guy he respected a lot. But you also got the sense like Devin Booker knows exactly how good he is. And he knows that he's at a different place

in his career than Clay is. That he has moves and things to get to that Clay just doesn't have anymore. A gear that Clay doesn't have anymore. And we've seen Clay expand his bag of tricks in different ways. Like I think he's probably thrown some of the best passes of his career

in this young season so far. He's had some nice moves, but he's not Klay Thompson. He's not the 2016 go-off-against-OKC Klay Thompson anymore. But he can still be really good. And Draymond, I think, is a similar conversation. He's been as aggressive going

to the basket early in the season as we've seen in a minute. But it's still a diminished version relative to who he was at his absolute peak. And that may still be good enough to get them to the finals. It may still be good enough

to repeat as champions, but they have a lot to prove in the meantime, just as a collective. Yeah, the first two months of last season, before Draymond got hurt and he just looked like vintage,

peak, awesome Draymond, and he got hurt, never really came back. There were flashes of it. Get some good moments in the second half of the finals. This year, same thing. And you know, what happened before the season too, I think he's got to prance around and be the big bully.

But you can't prance around and be the big bully after you just had this divisive thing happen three weeks ago. So I see him easing back into it. But again, the consistency thing. this is the law of the league. This is one of the many reasons I love the league, right? Guys come up, guys come down, guys replace them. You see, like when, even when Jordan came back, when he played with the Wizards 20 years ago,

the young guys were coming at him in a different way. This wasn't like a, we revere you. Oh my God, I can't believe I'm on the court with you shit. This was like, I'm now better than you and I want to come at you. And Pierce did it. Iverson did it. McGrady did it all the way through.

And this is what happened. So I think what was weird to me about the Suns game was Klay doing like the four rings thing and all that stuff. That's the argument you make when you don't have another argument. Right. me about the Suns game was Clay doing the four rings thing and all that stuff. That's the argument you make when you don't have another argument. That's the argument you make when you're losing. When you can't say scoreboard, you

count the rings instead. That is going to be an interesting dynamic to watch with the Warriors, especially this season, but going forward too, because right now what's staving them off from being targeted in that way is Steph. Steph is still that dude. And they have a lot of young up-and-coming guys,

and we'll see how they pop over the course of the year, but Steph has been as good as anybody in the league to start this season. That's what's been even keeping them in some of these games when their defense has been a disaster. But they're going to need more. They're going to need more from James Wiseman. They're going to need more from Jordan Poole. They're going to need to figure out how to coalesce and pull all these things together if they're going to need more from James Wiseman. They're going to need more from Jordan Poole. They're going to need to figure out how to coalesce

and pull all these things together if they're going to be that good a team again. Yeah, the past performance argument doesn't fly. The league is going forward. Nobody cares what happened last year. Steph, as you pointed out, he's 33, 34, 33, 21, and 33 in the first five games with four, five, seven, four, and seven threes.

He looks better than he did last year. Regular season last year, he actually wasn't as good as I think people may remember because he picked up in the playoffs. He did. He really, and the team, I think in general, like I think the last 48 games, they were something like 26 and 22, and then they kind of rounded into shape. All right, let's talk about, so we're going to, we're going to shelve the Warriors. We'll agree to come back in January and reassess. There's some disease of more stuff. There's some don't

hold on to past performance stuff. There's some, I want to see how the young guys get incorporated. I like what I've seen from Wiseman. I like Moody. I, even though Moody hasn't really made an impact this year, but I do like him but we'll see alright teams we're worried about in no particular order so I think Miami's

gotten a free pass Miami is now two and four but it's been Nets and Sixers and especially Lakers Lakers

Lakers Lakers oh my god the Lakers are on four and they've just hogged the headlines Miami's sitting here

at two and four they're in year two of this Kyle Lowry gamble. Yeah. Where he's 28.3 million this year, 29.7 next year. They traded a Chua for him. They traded a first, hoping that he'd be Toronto Lowry.

He's not. The Duncan Robinson contract, that's got 16.9 this year, three left after that. Oladipo, they gave 8.7 and 9.4 to. He's not playing. He's hurt again. I would be concerned if I was a Miami fan for two reasons.

One, I'm not better than I was. I'm either in the same place or worse than I was last year. And the league is better. The league is deeper. The East is better. And you're only saving grace for this year as well. Lowry, whatever was going on in the last year, he's going to be in shape. I don't know if he's that guy anymore. I mean, he's been 12 points, five rebounds, three assists a game. He doesn't look like he's totally in shape defensively. I don't know. Like, I just don't think he's on that level anymore, at least from what I've seen. Could he turn around? Maybe. But if he's not going to get there, I don't see it with this team.

What do you see? Yeah. I mean, I'm an enormous Kyle Lowry fan historically. But when my note is like, oh, it's a good sign that he's actually looking to shoot again, that's where we are with him. It's an encouraging sign if he's willing to take shots. And he's been aggressive with the three particular and hunting for those like Kyle Lowry

style fouls that he's always been able to draw. Those are good signs, but you see some of the lineups they roll out there and they're so dependent on Bam in particular to create. We're going to see if he's able to do that. The signs over the last basically like 18 months to two seasons have not been super encouraging

when he's tried to be more forceful, more high volume, more like a go-to scorer. But when you're out there with Duncan Robinson and Max Struess and Lowry and Caleb Martin, that's your job. You've got to be able to do that. And so this is going to be a sink or swim year for him in that

way. They're really going to need that. Jimmy Butler is still going to be one of the banner, more bankable stars in terms of night-to-night effort and performance that they have. But the rest of the rotation, it does need some shoring up. They do have some gaps that you will either need to fill, but need to find guys in characteristic Miami Heat fashion, out of their G League system,

or just prospects they can coach up. Jovich. Jovich. This is a classic Miami Heat, throw our young guy into the fire kind of game. Nikola Jovich plays huge minutes against the Warriors, gets absolutely toasted by Draymond and Jordan Poole. And now you have that on film.

And now you have that learning experience. And maybe we'll look back in February and March and say, man, doesn't Jovic look really solid now? We'll see. I would be very concerned if I was a Heat fan because you figure, like, go date it back to 2020. They had a nice little run here

and the East is better and I don't have them in my top six in the East. And then you watch teams like, you know, watch a Memphis again tonight. Memphis has just been kind of breathtaking. They're awesome. We talk about the Heat culture or we don't talk about it,

but it's a thing. But the Memphis culture, them just picking out these dudes draft after draft. LaRavia is good. Like they did it again. Santi where everybody was like, Oh my God, that's the worst pick of all time.

Is that a joke? Are they going to stash him? That guy's playing. And then Bane, who was just incredible in that Brooklyn game. And then tonight, I thought was... Incredible again. You could have said he was the best part of the floor

again tonight against the Kings. In a game that was important for the Kings, their own three, their home, they need one. And, you know, Bane, I thought, took over the game for a stretch job, obviously his job. But Grizzlies kind of feel like the new heat culture to me I think the torch has been passed was I

having a fever dream or did Santi Aldama have a reverse dunk in this game was that a thing that happened really athletic he's quite athletic but you're right like they are a team that they create luxuries right like John Morant has a pretty good game Desmond Bain goes off. It doesn't matter.

They're missing not only Jaron Jackson Jr., two other role players. It doesn't matter. They plug in these other guys. It works just fine. They just keep creating that kind of optionality. And I thought this game was especially stark because you look over at Sacramento, and Mike Brown is trying guys who haven't even played this season so far, just trying anything to figure out a rotation that works because they have some like pretty good core players for Sacramento. They just don't have the full rotation yet. Memphis has everything, right?

Like they have, they have jaw who has been absolutely electric to start the season, looks completely unguardable. And then they have this menagerie of options of who you can, who you can throw a deer and Fox. Oh, that's Dylan Brooks's job tonight. He guarded Kevin Durant the game before. Whatever. That's just his life now.

And they have guys who have that kind of flexibility all up and down the roster. It's a great place to be, you know, if you're a franchise, to have that kind of choice. I thought they would take a small step back because the league got better and the West got better.

But they're not going to take a step back unless Ja gets hurt. I mean, basically if he stays healthy and he's just, you know, he's continues to rise in the stratosphere. But the Bane thing, I thought the fact that he went up a level again, plus they were just able to replace slow-mo and just, I don't feel like they're missing anything. They're still moving along and they have that, that dog thing, which is one of the things I like about New Orleans. They just have a bunch of like playoff dudes, like just dudes that try really hard. They're up 13 against the Kings with two

minutes left. All those guys are flying around. Like there's, there's a little bit of a, I don't know. There's a killer instinct with them that I don't think every team has. You watch a team like Philly and you're like, nobody, like literally nobody has it on the entire team. But,

they're in a nice spot because I don't know what's going to happen in the West. And I know we're five games in, but I think we all thought, oh, it's the Warriors to lose. Now,

I don't know. It was like, oh, the Clips. Well, and that's our next panic team. Yep. The Clips. Well, now that Kawhi's back, they're so deep.

How's anybody going to beat them? Well, Kawhi's already hurt. So that's our next panic team. Coming off the bench. It's weird. They lost to OKC twice in a row. They're two and three. Is it panic time? I feel like it is. It's certainly time for concern.

I think, you know, some mild concern in terms of how this is going to work. Like, I mean, if he's hurt, you have to slow play it because literally

the only thing that matters for them is, is Kawhi going to be healthy in the end? And so everything you have to do to ensure that outcome, you have to do it. But obviously,

you would hope to start in their case. Like, they have a million guys in their rotation figuring out who goes into what slots who plays off of whom all of those conversations have to get tabled until kawaii is basically a functional part of your rotation otherwise guys are they're playing 10 more minutes than they might down the line they're getting x more shots than they might down the line you're creating this very fluid circumstance that i'm sure as a bunch of veterans they kind of implicitly understand.

But it's a different thing to live through that and lose to the thunder. And then down the line, you have to give up whatever it is that you've been doing for the sake of Kawhi coming back to the rotation full time. It's such an unstable situation

that they're in for a team that's as talented as they are. Yeah, and they have... Well, it's like, well, we have a deep roster. I thought the Kawhi thing, I was excited to watch him. I didn't know,

was he going to be 95% what he was, 90% was, but I assumed we were getting him. It had been a year and a half since he'd been hurt. Yeah. And now it just, I don't know,

maybe I've been following the NBA too long, but it's just never good when the guy who's been injured a bunch of times with the same thing, and now it's like, Oh, we've had a setback again. And you're near your mid thirties basically. And I don't like it. And I haven't even been to a Clipper game yet this year for a Clipper home game. And I don't know, like, when am I going to see Kawhi? Like, would you be shocked if we don't see him till January? I'm prepared for anything. God, I hope it's better than that.

But around the setback thing, that's when you know it's an issue. If people raise the concept of like, oh, is this a setback to his injury? And everyone is very defensive that, oh, no, no, no. Definitely not a setback. Empirically not a setback.

This is just load management. We're just being careful. That always raises some red flags. Yeah, the first red flag was when he didn't start opening night. Yep. Well, work in progress. Hard to say what happens with them, but I really thought we'd see Kawhi.

Nets, I am not surprised they're 1-4. They're getting a really good KD season. Kyrie and KD combined are almost 60 points a game. Kyrie's not making threes. Doesn't seem that much fun to play with as usual, but it's had some brilliance. The supporting cast has been bad. And Simmons looks beyond rusty.

And like I did, Eddie Johnson and Justin Termini show today. And Eddie Johnson was like, look, the dude had back surgery. We got to, got to give him, cut him some slack.

That play. So he gets a steal at the end against Luka, right? Big time play. Big time play. Fast break, dribbling down. There's like 10 seconds left. Couldn't wait to get rid of the ball to somebody. Yeah. Right?

Even Ben Simmons three years ago putting his head down, trying to get to the basket, trying to get fouled. It was just him and one guy in front of him. Stops and then Durant is smart enough to know this guy's not going to go to the basket. Durant cuts down, feeds Durant, gets the layup, ties the game, goes to overtime, they lose. But he's beyond tentative. It's like watching Hawk series, Simmons. This is why I was dubious of it, because once you put somebody like that in front of 18,000 people, and you're just like, no, no, he'll get his confidence

back. I don't see it. I don't know if his confidence comes back offensively. What do you think? Well, and what you just described, like this game, that play, those moments, that was his best game this season against Dallas. And he was kind of okay. Like that's where the line is now. Like seven points. Yeah.

The things you would say about him are like, oh my god, he came up with this huge clutch steal. He had a really good offensive rebound in crunch time that like almost got them a really critical bucket. That's like what we would

say of Udonis Haslam, right? Like those are the kinds of plays that he's making is like little effort stuff, little connecting plays, not star level plays. Like that's just not

what he is right now. And certainly defensively, there are points in that game where Luka was targeting him. I was going to say, he was going after him. Yeah. That was inconceivable three years ago.

That's a guy who was one of the best perimeter defenders in the sport. And Luka is eating him for lunch. Yeah. So I'll give it the work in progress. That might be generous. Yeah, it's really generous. But offensively,

I'm not giving him the work in progress because I honestly think this is who he is. I think he is a hot potato guy now. And maybe he can rebounding and maybe they'll play him at the five. And maybe that'll get him around the rim a little bit more for some finishing. The defensive stuff, I think, is a work in progress

because maybe he just has to get comfortable. The back stuff, you never know. That takes some time. Their supporting cast is brutal. Very tough right now. Now, TJ Warren, I got my initial guys. TJ Warren's not back yet. Seth Curry's not back yet.

Joe Harris is working his way back. So those are three guys that they're going to have down the road. But I just mentioned three guys who aren't good at defense. I was about to say, that's the funny thing. The guys who are in there right now, like Edmund Sumner, David Duke Jr., they played pretty decent defense in this game against

Dallas. That's kind of who they are. That's what they can bring. And when you're talking about the full speed version of this team is even worse defensively, and the baseline that we're talking about is Brooklyn right now is the worst defensive team in the sport, basically. That's tough. Kyrie and KD combined for 76 points

in this game and they lost. That's not a formula that can be sustainable over the course of a season. You have to be able to be better than that defensively. Well, think what we haven't had with the Nets. We're only five games in. We haven't had a weird Kyrie thing yet. It's been 10 days.

Yeah. But he hasn't done anything weird yet. He will. He's going to do something weird. There's going to be a Kyrie's not playing tonight. He got upset about something and he's gone. We haven't had the Steve Nash unnamed sources say somebody's upset with Steve Nash,

like that whole two-day news cycle. I would say if you told me who's in more trouble, Steve Nash or Doc Rivers, it's probably a dead heat right now. So we haven't had that. We also haven't had the KD floating out. He's still unhappy. We haven't had that. We also haven't had the KD floating out. He's still unhappy. We haven't had the,

oh, the Nets kind of inquired with New Orleans. Could they, would they want to do Brandon Ingram and the Lakers pick for KD? That story hasn't come out yet.

There's all these checkpoints we haven't hit yet with this Nets team that we will. I think by Thanksgiving. Did I make anything out? I mean, I'm sure there's a million things you left out. Anything could happen with that

team at this point, right? I'm taking nothing off the table. Nick Claxton retires from the NBA and decides he wants to pivot into marketing. I would buy anything. Well, they're 1-4. They're tied for second worst record in the East. But you go through the East and it's like, well, they're one in four. They have the, they're tied for second worst record in the East, but you go through the

East and it's like, all right, there's no way they're better than Milwaukee. No, I don't think they're better than Boston. Like, I just think Boston's better and younger and deeper. And especially when Rob Williams comes back eventually, then you go to that second tier. You got Cleveland Cleveland Mitchell's fit in really nicely he's been great I don't know

I like the upside of that team the Knicks are gonna at least be a 500 and maybe a little higher team they're at least gonna be a tough out I don't know what to make of the Wizards being 3-1

I'll pass on comment there Toronto I have liked what I've seen yeah and I think they're gonna be a really hard team to play Jalen said Jalen and Jacoby,

they're the team, they're the guy in pickup that just picks you up full court and you just hate going against them. That's kind of what Toronto's. Chicago's a little better than I thought. And then you have the Sixers. But my point is, I think Brooklyn's going to be a playing team.

And I think the odds on that were pretty high heading into the season. Because we haven't had the Durant, eight games, 10, the Nitis yet. We haven't had the seven Kyrie things. And I don't know where Curry, I don't even know what the timetable is for Curry, who still seems like he's hurt.

Well, so you think, that's not even considering the possibility of a major trade. You think this team is a playing team. This team. Yeah, so what is the major trade? I'm just saying if Kevin Durant does have his holdout kind of moment or they just get fed up with Kyrie for whatever reason.

I don't know if any of that stuff can happen in-season or not. But just looking at this roster now, they got serious problems. They profile as a potentially elite offense and a disastrous defense. That's like a 500 team. That's like a maybe hovering around 500 team. So if they don't change that dramatically,

they're going to be in that play-in conversation. Well, it's funny that KD and Kyrie, they picked this new situation, right? And they end up with a supporting cast that doesn't really make sense for them. Ideally, you'd want to surround them with defense and role players, all kinds of stuff. I guess that's what they try to do with

Royce O'Neal. Apparently, they didn't watch the playoffs last year because Royce O'Neal was just getting torched. The Lakers, same thing. LeBron picks his decision. He makes the Davis trade, picks his team. Now they're 0-4. Westbrook had a mysterious hamstring injury

yesterday. The whole league is circling them like sharks thinking those two 27-29 picks are available and it could go a variety of ways. I still feel like Utah is the team for Westbrook because I think Utah

needs to basically chop its own foot off. It's like, wait, we're one of the people winning the marathon. I need to mutilate myself in some way so this doesn't happen. They have Clarkson, they have Conley, they have Kelly Olenek. So you want the Jordan Clarkson, I'm coming home montage back to the Lakers. Yeah, I want the Jumbotron, drop the cloth down, the whole thing. But yeah, if I'm giving up those two picks, like give me dudes that can actually help.

My thing is, it's still not going to make a real, whatever they get for Westbrook in those two picks, it's still not going to make an impact. Like if Miami said, hey, what about Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson for one of the picks in Westbrook? I don't even, would I even do that? Probably not.

So you're taking back things from other teams that I'm not sure we've been fired up about. Buddy Heald and Miles Turner are not going to put the Lakers into the Western Finals. It's ridiculous. They're too far away.

No. They're kind of out of this like concern conversation. Like Lakers are past, they're post concern. Like they are, they are off on their own island. I think we all have

a pretty good sense of what that team is and it's going to be, I guess, I guess sort your stuff out. Decide if you want to trade those picks or not. Yeah, but the thing with Westbrook, you have to trade for him soon

because you want to be able to re-flip him before the deadline if you're somebody, right? You want to have the option at least. And I bring that up because the Nets are a good example. The Nets could just say, fuck it. Alright, Kyrie for Westbrook and you're two first. We'll do it. And Duran will get mad, but they'll say, just hold the fort. We're not going to be a

top four team. Just hold the fort. Let us figure this out. We got these two assets. We'll figure out what to do with the Westbrook contract. There will be a plan B. That wouldn't shock me because it's not like the Nets are going anywhere anyway. But I think this is what the Lakers are banking on, that the longer we got closer to Thanksgiving, Christmas, there's going to be a couple of teams that hit that fuck it point.

Could it be the Sixers? But Tobias Harris doesn't make sense for them. That's another panic team that we didn't mention yet. One and four. And Tobias Harris is, I mean, the all-time afterthought. They get three points the other night. This doesn't fit in with this team at all.

That's a big contract for them to trade. They don't really have any picks left. They do have the maxi card if they wanted to. I don't think they would. No. Not for that. Nobody's going to want Tucker. But, I don't know. You go around and it's like, who's actually going to take that Westbrook deal and what would be the purpose of it?

I think that's the problem is you have the two compounding issues, which is his game is cumbersome and his contract is massively cumbersome. So it's like, who can afford to take both of those things on in a way that makes sense? That's a pretty small list of teams. It's Utah. Yeah. Utah, like maybe

Indiana if they talk themselves into that. It's Utah going, we make ourselves worse. Westbrook will never be here. We'll just go home. Don't play for us. And now we are way worse. And there we go.

We didn't mention, we didn't really talk about the Sixers. Yeah. I thought they were going to be good. Where did you stand on the Sixers? Did you think they were going to be good? You know, I still think they're going to be good.

Okay. They just like, they came out of the gate. They, they, they're playing very lazy in terms of like the transition stuff, in terms of really the defense in general. I thought it's just like been very lax. They're playing very lazy in terms of the transition stuff, in terms of really the defense

in general. I thought it's just been very lax. They have a lot to figure out in terms of the dynamics of how the team's going to work, who takes over when, how they balance the various options. But the blueprint is still good. The blueprint of triangulating a team between Embiid and Harden and Maxi,

that makes sense in a way that I think over 82 games is going to make sense. It just looks really ugly right now. And the question is, to your point about Doc, will they lose enough games where his job becomes more of an open question? Will they lose enough games

where they have to investigate trades just to resolve this issue or that? I think those things could be on the table. But overall, in terms of the talent, they have to be better than this. They caught a break with the Phillies and the Eagles. If the Phillies

were out and the Eagles were 2-4, the Doc thing would be a way bigger deal. It's sliding under the radar in Philly. Nobody cares. Two weeks from now, they're going to care. They probably have two weeks here. The great market efficiency in professional sports is having other good teams in your market who can absorb the blow

while you do whatever you need to do to get by. Especially in Philly where they're just crazy all the time. Alright, so if we said let's take the Lakers off the table because I honestly think they're completely screwed.

Also, LeBron is even capable of playing 75 games in a season at this point, much less 82. Is he capable of getting those 65? I think they're screwed. Yeah. Which team are you most worried about? I will give you Miami, the Nets, the Clippers. I'm going to stop you.

And Philly. It doesn't even matter. It's the Nets. It doesnippers, and Philly. It doesn't even matter. You can throw anyone in there you want. For me, it's the Nets. I do not trust any of the connective tissue, any of the leadership structure, any of the defense.

That's game over. When you have KD on your team, you should at least be a high-level playoff team. Most likely a contender. They are nowhere near either of those conversations. So I don't really see what they can do. It's kind of incredible. Nets, Clippers.

I think that was the same summer, right? 2019? Kawhi and Durant. I think so. Kawhi goes to the Clippers. Durant goes to the Nets. Now we're in year four of both experiments. Neither of them even made the conference finals.

No. Ton of money spent, ton of assets given away. And both of them are in a precarious spot. I guess the Clippers thing is a little more salvageable because at least you can say, hey, man, Kawhi's coming back, man. You know, he's had three surgeries. You got to like cut him some slack here. salvageable because at least you can say, hey, man, Kawhi's coming back, man. He's had three surgeries. Cut him some slack here. I don't know what you say if you're a Nets fan. What do you say to a Nets fan?

I don't know, dude. You won't have Kyrie next year? The Clippers did make one conference finals. Right? They made the 21. Did they? My memory's getting fuzzy at this point. I'm pretty sure they did. Oh, they did.

You're right. Did they? That was, yeah. They lost to Phoenix. Right. Because Utah choked in round two. Yeah. Great call. Well, the Clippers made it further. But I think, look, I still

think we should table, we should also go ahead and book the conference room for the Are the Clippers made it further. But I think, look, I still think we should table, we should also go ahead and book the conference room for the Are the Clippers in Trouble seminar back to back with the Warriors in January. We'll just fold those into each other. This sounds like a whole day. It's like a TED Talks day. It might be.

A seminar at 10 o'clock where we'll be talking about Are the Clippers in Trouble. Here's on the panel. All right, Mahoney, before we go, is there one team that the panel. All right, Mahoney. Before we go, is there one team that's delighted you? Oh, many teams. I mean, I think the Pelicans are at the top of that list for exactly

the reason we talked about. The intensity that they're playing with, even the precision they're playing with for a team that young. There's been some really good habit-forming stuff that I think has been really encouraging with them. We talked about Ja already. I think if you haven't had a chance to watch the Grizzlies yet,

they should be appointment viewing for you at this stage in the season for sure. They're probably it for me. Yeah, I would say those are the big two. I agree. The Blazers were becoming fun and then Dame got hurt. I know.

Hopefully he'll be back in good form soon. Something was going on with them. But yeah, I think those are the two breakouts. The Pelicans, I just can't believe how loaded they are and how scary they are. And I guarantee everyone in the West is like, we don't want to see those guys.

Because they have role players, they have defenders, they have three guys who can create a great shot, and Zion is just a force of nature. Well, if you want to do the transitive property with them, the Mavs just beat the Nets. A Pelicans team without Zion or Ingram just beat the Mavs. That's how good those role players are. Those guys just stepped up, had a huge game on national television.

They look really stacked. Mahoney, we can hear you on the Ringer NBA show. We can read you on theringer.com. You wrote a big piece about Minnesota this week, actually. I didn't want to put them in the panic thing yet because it's first week of school. Everybody just showed up for ninth grade. They're trying to get to know each other. But the fact that there's already hints of chemistry stuff already with them was probably one of the more predictable things of the season. We'll see how that goes.

For sure. I'm waiting too, but maybe that's the third conference room for January. We'll see where they are by then. It might be a two-day seminar. All right. Good to see you, Mahoney. Thanks, Bill. Football season's heading into November. It's the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back. If first bet doesn't win, just sign up with promo code BS. We talked a lot about the NFL on this podcast. One thing that we didn't do on Million Dollar Picks

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as non-retirable. Free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers,

host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, we're about to bring in Peter Schrager. Just a reminder, we're talking about the Bengals in this segment you're about to hear, but we did not know that Jamar Chase was out for four to six weeks with a hip injury. So that colors some of the conversation, to say the least. I didn't want to edit it because it was a good talk, but we didn't know about Chase. So obviously the ceiling is a little lower for the Bengals these days. Anyway, here's Schrager.

Peter Schrager's here as he is every Thursday from the NFL Network, from Fox, from New York, the land of good football teams. There was a trade, right? We're taping this. It is 1130 teams. There was a trade, right? We're taping this. It is 1130 PT. There was a trade today that was interesting on a lot of levels where the Chiefs got Kadarius Toney basically for a third rounder.

The Giants drafted Toney 17th after they moved backwards in the draft where they could have had Micah Parsons, which every Giant fan I know is like, wow, we had the next LT and we traded back to take this guy, Tony. Now they've decided Tony's a sunk cost. But from a Chiefs standpoint, why is this the guy they went in on with a third-round pick? Because there's some good receivers out there.

Why him? I think they look at this as a low risk, high reward. And by that, I mean financially and the pick. So it was the third and the sixth. But you look at the contract of Kadarius Toney, 2023, he's owed $1.9 million. 2024, he's owed $2.5 million. And he'll be on the option year, obviously, for 2025 if he does well. But you look at what wide receivers are making right now.

I was going through the list. Byron Pringle made $5 million last year. It's an agency. So it's like you start thinking about how these wide receivers are paid. Cedric Wilson to Miami got like a big payday and that's not even scratching the surface. Aguilar was like two for 26.

Aguilar, Christian Kirk, 72 million for four years. And Tony's a first round pick. Tony's a first-round pick. Now, why would the Giants want to give him up? He wasn't their guy. This is a whole new brass, new coach, new GM, new offensive coordinator. There's really very little holdover from the guys who drafted him. You said

sunk costs. I think everyone knows the potential, but at this point, the amount of injuries and just not being able to be relied upon a player, the Giants are like, we'll cut bait. We'll take some draft picks. We'll roll with what we got. It's a rare deal that I think makes sense from both sides. But for the Chiefs, everyone was pointing to like Odell, or maybe they go and they get Jerry Judy. Maybe they do have another swing at the bat, but at the very least, they get Kadarius Tony, who when he has the ball in his hands, is as electric as anybody in the league.

Well, he's like, we make fun of Anthony Davis. He's 100 times worse. Tony hasn't stayed on the field at any point in his life. So interesting gamble, but I like guys who can play. It reminds me, it's obviously a different situation, but Josh Gordon is another one like this. These tantalizing talents. It's like, wow, if he could just get his life together.

How many teams rolled the dice with Josh Gordon? He had different issues than Tony does, but if he can't stay on the field, he can't stay on the field. The good thing is he's young. I was looking at it with the Chiefs. There's three teams that matter right now. It's the Bills and it's the Eagles

and then it's the Chiefs and then I think it drops off. And I think the Chiefs know that now, right? They ripped through San Francisco. San Francisco was supposed to be on their level as a level two contender and they beat the shit out of them. So now they're looking at Bills and Eagles and that's it. And how are you going to beat those teams with probably with offense? It's probably going to be a high scoring game, right? You're going to need points. They showed the ability against that Niners game, but they have six touchdowns and eight

possessions, whatever it was. And the first time they had the real fireworks, but now it's like- And you saw Valdez-Scantling get going. You saw Juju on the third and six. Well, part of that is due to the defense. I don't know what the Niners would do with the defense. Niners can't take the Chiefs on third and long. That goes back to the Super Bowl with the Wasp play.

Third and 15, it's like, all right, this team haunts us on third and long. And then third and 20, they converted. Third and 11, they converted. Then third and six, they converted. And it was an avalanche. But Chiefs looked really good last week. Really good. It was impressive.

I ended up losing a little money on it because for some reason I had the Niners. But I thought that was the Chiefs team we lost with them on million dollar picks against the Colts that was the Chiefs team I thought before the season picked them to win the Super Bowl had them to win the division

that was the team I was waiting for but again it's week 7 they were 3-4 last year 3-7 game like don't worry that was the team I was waiting for. Yeah. But again, it's week seven. Like, you know, they were three and four last year through seven games. Like, don't worry. Chiefs are going to be all right.

When we look for spinning it forward to the good teams, we have the Bills in a spot against a Packers team that the season's not looking great for them if they get knocked out.

And then you have the Eagles, same situation. They get Pittsburgh. And it just feels like they're headed for a collision course unless the Chiefs can interrupt that. Is there anyone else you're looking at? Yes. We have those three. Is there a fourth team?

Are you going to say the Bengals? I am. I am. Okay. I think they're clicking right now. And it took a while. And I think you start looking at the Bengals in a rearview mirror

about what happened in the first couple of weeks. Joe Burrow was coming off an appendix, an emergency appendectomy that he had. He was in the offensive line. We're like, what the hell is this offensive line? It turns out, like we said with the Rams, they were playing against TJ Watt in one week and they were playing against Micah Parsons in another.

Those guys blow up offensive lines. Some questionable play calls by Zach Taylor, which had you frustrated against the Ravens. And then you see what they did against the Saints and they kind of got their mojo back. And then last week, that's the team that we all thought we were getting this season. That's the team that just comes out guns blazing, blown out in Atlanta team, and then doesn't look back. Jamar Chase said that the 32-yard touchdown from Burrow was the best ball he's ever seen Joe Burrow throw going back to college. They've never wavered and Burrow has so much swagger to him and so much confidence that you don't know what's real and what's not. It's authentic. He believes that he can go in and play

against any other quarterback and get the best of him. And he believes in this team. The only thing that would be holding them back would be if this offensive line can't protect him. And now they are protecting him. So I think the Bengals, I agree in the AFC, it's like Bills and Chiefs collision course. And I would be so happy to see it as an AFC championship game. I think it'd be a classic. But that was the case last year. And the Bengals kind of threw a rickle. Crashed the party. Yeah. And a lot of people were on that Bengals bandwagon last year, a lot. And that was late. And it was like media, and it was fans, and a lot of people fled in the beginning in September.

And I think that's an imprudent decision with a team like that that made the run and is still so young and had an obvious quarterback who's going through some health stuff early in the season. Bill, I'm backing on the Bengals. I think they're legit. We don't know what's going to happen. We're taping this before Baltimore and Tampa tonight. But right now, who do you think is favored in the AFC North on FanDuel between Baltimore and Cincinnati? Even before what I think could be a big win for the Ravens, I think the Ravens just get everyone's trust and confidence based on the coach and the quarterback. Ravens are minus 155, even though Lamar has not played well for the last four weeks. Bengals are plus 160 for that division. Now the Ravens have

beaten the Bengals. So I think that factors into it a little bit. Here's where I was really surprised. I'm going to read you in descending order, Super Bowl team odds on FanDuel. I like this. How many teams do you think I will get to before I mentioned the Bengals? Okay. I'm going to guess that there's probably seven teams. I just think of the power rankings in there at the back of the 10. I say seven. All right. Bills plus 270. Yep. Eagles plus 550. Okay. Which I thought was fascinating because both of them are going to be one seeds. And I don't know why the Eagles are that much higher.

Chiefs plus 650. Niners 15 to one. Niners fourth? Vikings 16 to one. Tampa Bay 16-1, Wow. Baltimore 17-1, Dallas 17-1,

Dallas, okay. Cincinnati 21-1. They are ninth right now in these rankings. And then after them, it's Rams, Chargers, Dolphins, Packers, Giants. I mean, it craters. So that Super Bowl circle

that Sal and I always talk about where it's like six, eight teams. Basically, FanDuel is giving us the nine. They're giving us nine teams, but they're putting Tampa in there. And I just don't think Tampa should be in there. So if you go Buffalo, Philly,

Kansas City, San Francisco, Minnesota, Baltimore, Dallas, Cincinnati, that feels right to me because Minnesota, they could have the NFC North wrapped up by Thanksgiving. And then the rest of the way, all those teams are good or whatever. Is there anyone I didn't mention that you could see crashing that party? So I could give you Rams, I'd give you Chargers, Dolphins, Packers, Giants, Titans, Raiders, Pats, Cardinals, Jets, anybody? Right now, for the sake

of great podcasting, I would pick a team and say, the Seahawks have it. No, I don't. I don't think, and that includes the Rams. 100 to 1, Seahawks. It's tempting. It's a pretty high odds. It's tempting. They've done us really good the last few weeks, Bill. We've been on them the last two weeks. Well, their defense looked good the last two weeks.

Yeah, they're flying around the field, and they're young, and they're fun, and Pete is re-energized. We can't do three straight weeks of Seahawks talk, but yes, I'm very into the Seahawks right now. I would say odds-wise, man, I just don't know what it is with the Niners where I keep looking at them, even though Jimmy G just looks worse every month. He looks good. That throw he had at the end of though Jimmy G just looks worse every month.

That throw he had at the end of the first half. The Joshua Williams pick. Yeah, it just seems like he's got one of those a half now. It's just pencil them in. And then Baltimore offensively, I don't think they really know who they are. Dobbins is hurt again. And then Dallas, I don't know what I'm getting with Dak. So I think I'm with you.

If you take off Buffalo, Philly, KC, And then Dallas, I don't know what I'm getting with Dak. So I think I'm with you. If you take off Buffalo, Philly, KC, and we're just talking odds, I think Cincy 21-1 is really nice. I kind of like Dallas too at that number. I think that NFC is so wide open. The fact that Dak is back and is going to get better than he did against Detroit. It is going. I mean, his first game back.

I think now is a good time to get in on Dallas if you're looking for a team other than Philly. The NFC is putrid. The Rams, I spent time with McVay last week on the bye weekend. We were talking and he was really in a good place and I was happy to see that. And he was talking up the return of Brian Allen, their center. He's been gone since week one and like,

you have no idea what this means to us, man. That's my, you know, McVay. And then, and Van Jefferson's back. And I'm nodding and I'm smiling like, I love those guys.

I'm sure they're great and they're Super Bowl champions. Van Jefferson's back is not winning me over on a Rams bet. If we're banking on Van Jefferson and Brian Allen as the reason that the Rams

are going to win the second straight Super Bowl, we're not in the best place possible. So I just can't get on the Rams as a pick that, okay, out of the bye, watch out for the Rams. I don't know if I even see that happening. Listen, we have Damian Harris and Nelson Aguilar ready to trade to them if they're interested. Damian Harris is good. If you look at the NFC, Eagles are 2-1. Vikings are second, plus 650. Dallas, plus 650.

Tampa, 7-1. I don't get it. Simpsons just goes 7-1. Rams, 10-1. Green Bay, 14-1. Then the Giants are 20-1. All the Giants are doing are just winning games week after week. I know.

They're great in the fourth quarter. The game management standpoint, It's funny how many teams are just totally willing to let the game go along as long as they don't make any mistakes. I think that's why Belichick got mad at Mac. I've been saying this the whole season. Mac keeps making dumb mistakes.

Mac had one bad throw and Belichick's like, get the fuck out of here. And he fucking benched him. Hold on. That whole situation, obviously, was a crazy thing to watch. And then to see Zappi actually fall on his face in the second half. fuck out of here and he fucking benched him hold on that that whole situation obviously was was

was a crazy thing to watch and then to see zappy actually fall on his face in the second half and he threw a bad one too that second pick he threw was he was bad i don't zappy down 10 is not where you want to be i think that was not a good second half but the giants to your point like do you know how many passes daniel jones completed in the fourth quarter on Sunday's big win against the Jaguars? Zero. Zero. He went 0 for 1 in the fourth quarter, and he was the NFC's Offensive Player of the Week because he's tough. And he gets those yards, and he plays with it himself. And I think this is a fascinating next three months because Daniel Jones is on this contract where they didn't pick up the option.

They were basically like, let's ride it out. He's a lame duck quarterback, new coach, new GM. And guess who's got the heart of a lot of Giants fans right now? The way Daniel Jones is playing is so Giants football, blue collar, smart. Don't stub your toe. Just do what you have to do and be clutch. What do you do with them? Little Haas-Dettler 1990-ish. A lot of Haas-Dettler. A lot of Haas. Well, that's one of the weirdest games of the week. Two teams that I like who have been, I think, pretty good to us, especially the Seahawks.

Seahawks are minus three over the Giants at home. And just blindly, you're like, wait, Daniel Jones in Seattle? After they've been pulling games out of their ass? Like, at some point, they're going to have the everything falls apart week. Seattle's seventh in DBOA. Seattle's third in offense in DBOA. Gino, by any calculation, you take any advanced metric you want.

He's been a top five quarterback this year. They're 45.6% on third down, which now we have enough third down data where it's like, all right, if you're 45% and up, you're a real offense. All the good offenses are where they should be. And then Seattle's kind of the outlier. Their defense has given up 22 touchdowns. On the flip side, the Giants have seven 20 plus plays this year. Everyone else has 14. They have half as many as anyone else in the league explosive plays

so I don't know what to make of this game because it's like alright I'm worried about Seattle's defense but they're going against an offense that is just bound and determined to just kind of keep the ball as long as possible and not make mistakes and then on the flip side Seattle's offense I really like it

it's really good but the Giants have had an ability to just kind of suck the life out of these offenses that we think are good. So I like the Seahawks, but I'm also willing to be talked out of it. Yeah, I almost want to stay away from that one completely because it's an open book on both these teams.

The Seahawks have so many rookies playing. There's six rookies playing. So it's like, big spot. We know these guys, they've performed well all season so far. And then the Giants thing. Do you know who the Giants leading receiver is? Catches? It's a guy named Richie James Jr. Yeah. And it's been that case

for like four weeks. 20 catches this season. That's over seven games. Go find him in your fantasy league. I guarantee he's available. He's averaging two catches per game and he's their leading receiver. They have three tight end sets. They run behind the guys. The rookies are all playing well. I know the Evan Neal injury is going to be huge for them because he was playing good down the stretch there. Well, they lost one of their tight ends too. Yeah. Bellinger is a good rookie player. You start seeing these things happen where there's injuries here and there. But then on the other end, Thibodeau didn't do anything the first few weeks and now he's a menace. He's everywhere.

It's like the other guys are stepping up. So I would stay away and that's not because I don't like either team or because I don't feel strongly that the Giants can travel or whatever it is. I just don't know yet. I don't know. The other shoe has to drop on one of these teams and I don't want to be the one holding the bag when the other team falls apart. Giants, next week

bye week. So they're 6-1. Decent chance they could be 7-1 going on the bye week. And then they have Houston and Detroit decent chance. They can be seven and one going on the bi-week. And then they have Houston and Detroit at home back to back. So one case I would have for Seattle, are the giants really going to be nine and one heading into the November 20, the November 24th Thanksgiving game. Isn't it crazy? I guess the Cowboys, the giants are gonna be 10 and one for that game. Is that crazy?

They're going to be 10 and 1. It's possible. I'm not buying it. No, I'm not buying it. No. No. No. Nope. So you say this is the loss. On the road, Seattle. Forgivable. Get out of the bye and then we you know, you take... Yeah, it's like, man, you know, tough loss in Seattle. That's a

tough place to play. Long flight back at the bye week. Wow, we're six and two. Bye week coming. We're still feeling great about where we are. That's what I'm looking at. I told this story on Russillo's pod, so I'm not trying to recycle it. Are you recycling ringer content? Jesus.

It's a quick one. I figured if I could do it on the platform as a whole, but I think you'll appreciate just a quick story of it is that when Joe Judge got fired, I was texting with him. He called me and he was like, the one thing everyone should know about this Giants team. And I'm like, here you go. He's going to bury the ownership or bury. He was like, Daniel Jones is tough as shit. And I'm like, what? What a strange takeaway. Here, you just got fired in a tumultuous week and you're a big takeaway. And I'm like, can I say that on air? He's like, please say it on air like let everyone know Daniel Jones is that it's like a tough kid and like really

really good and I'm like he didn't say the next John Elway or anything but just tough and smart and like he's everything that they hoped when they drafted him and now they've got to see where this goes because if they do win this game dude this the Yankees are done

the Mets are done like this is going to be a Giants town in New York and the Daniel Jones contract talk is going to only heat up. It's going to be Jalen Brunson and Daniel Jones ruling the city. Judge is going to go to some weird baseball team. The Nets sound like they're done out of DOA.

I'm watching last night. Nash gets thrown out of the game. He's showing emotion. They don't know what... I don't know. Katie was excited about it. Katie's gets thrown out of the game. He's showing emotion. They don't know what... I don't know. Katie was excited about it. Katie's like, that's the guy. The whole thing is weird. All right. Here's an important question. Kyle, turn the TikTok camera on. Let's go.

TikTok. It's week eight. Week eight means to me there are certain teams that maybe they looked a little frisky for a couple of weeks. Maybe there was some smoke and bear stuff, but then week eight, there's some tape, there's some dumb decisions, there's some scar tissue. Scar tissue. weeks, right around week eight is when a couple teams can just go... Yeah. Who would be your pick for that right now?

Because there's a couple teams on the precipice. Yeah. Green Bay is really dancing with the devil on this one. Ooh, Green Bay. Interesting. I had another... I'll tell you my team after, but make the keys for Green Bay. So you feel like this four-game losing streak,

and this is now, we have officially, there's a mushroom cloud and that's it. Buffalo's really good. And that place is going to be really tough to win. So let's just put that out there. And then it's not just any team. It's a quarterback who has an open microphone on Sunday, on Monday, goes on McAfee show on Tuesday, a coach who is not in a position to really bite back or come out and get in a public war of words with them. And there's a bunch of young players who are trying to gain their own confidence. And I don't know if this environment under the bright lights is the best place for a young player to kind of find and mature and develop into an NFL player year one. So this has that sprinkle of

ooh, disaster season. Remember when the Raiders went to the Super Bowl with Callahan and then the very next year? I feel like there's elements of that in this. What do you think there? Fando's great because they have the win total still for every

team. You just bet them now. There's 11 games left. What do you think they're... Fando's great because they have the win total still for every team. You just bet them now. There's 11 games left. What do you think the over-under is for the Packers right now? For wins for the season. Okay. I would say still, people are probably still bullish. I'd still say like 10 and a half.

It's eight and a half. And there's been more action on the under than the over. Wow. I don't think Green Bay is that good. But on the flip side, this is a kitchen sink week for them. And if there's any goodness in them, it would have to come out this week, right?

Double digit underdogs against Buffalo and Rogers back to the wall? He's never been a double-digit underdog. So if there's anything there, it has to come out this week. But there might not be anything there. Yeah, and if Minnesota beats Arizona, suddenly we're talking about a four-and-a-half game edge. Yeah.

Look, so that's one team. And then Indianapolis has a chance to just go away for the season. The decision this week was really interesting. and then, you know, Indianapolis has a chance to just go away for the season. If this, the decision this week was really interesting. Yeah, tell us about it. I mean, we know Matt Ryan was basically a zombie,

zombie statue, Matt Ryan, but still, he had a couple fourth quarter comebacks that killed us a million dollar picks. They've liked Ellinger since last year.

I remember there was whispers that he was going to, you know, I guess it was Wentz was hurt early on in preseason and it was like, watch out for Ellinger. He's already beaten out Jacob Eason and Eason was a higher pick. Yeah, Eason was a higher pick. So I was like, that's news. That's good morning football in August, guys. Eason versus Ellinger. Who is in for it? Ratings bonanza. But that guy has been popular in that building. And then the Matt Ryan thing, it's like, all right, let's take another whack at it. And I think Chris Ballard's a good GM. I also think Chris Ballard is one of these guys that The Athletic does a poll before the season. Who's the best GM in football? And all the writers are like,

Chris Ballard, because he gets a lot of praise, a lot of praise for a lot of things. I think there are a lot of people in this league, and I get texts from a few GMs who are like, you guys aren't talking about Chris Ballard on Good Morning Football anymore. And what happened to Frank Reich as your coach of the year? There's a lot of people who are enjoying watching Indianapolis go through this yet again after having another opportunity with the quarterback. Because truthfully, there is a small contingent of people who are Wentz people. And they think that the way that Ursae treated Wentz, the way that the Frank Reich, Wentz's guy, just did him dirty. It was like, yep, you're right. We got to move on. Okay, you're going to blame last year on Carson entirely? Okay. Post-COVID Carson. Yeah. Looks a little better this year after watching him on Washington.

Yeah. And he'll be out for it. He might not get that job back for all we know if Heineken keeps winning. But the Indianapolis thing, it's like every game, it's like you're pulling teeth to put up points. And it seems like a panicked move after going and trading for Matt Ryan so soon in the season to do this when they're still very much alive in the division. FanDuel, AFC South Odds.

Tennessee's favorite, obviously. Minus 150. Colts plus 260. Jags plus 460. Houston 37 to 1. The reason I bring this up, what do you think

Indianapolis' win total is for the season now in FanDuel? Let's see. Jonathan Taylor will return. What are they? 3-3-1? Yeah.

So what do you think their win total is for the year that you could wager on right now? Seven and a half. Oh, you nailed it. Yes. It's the unknown of the quarterback. The fact that they pulled Matt Ryan for this guy. Action on the under. Minus 130 on the under. So there's been action.

But what's hilarious about that is they're the number two favorite in the AFC South. They're over under seven and a half. We might have an eight and nine team in the AFC South. Tannehill's hurt this week. That's a game I've been looking at. We'll talk about when we do million dollar picks in a second. you know, Burks is out.

They have no skill guys. And she's like, Tennessee, how are they going to get to nine wins? But eight, nine might take the division. And then there's Jacksonville, who has the most talented team. By the advanced metrics are the best team. And yet every week they just shoot themselves in the foot. They turn the ball over, dumb fourth down calls. They can't stay out of their own way.

So I don't know who takes it. And then the NFC South is the other one. We have these two divisions where it's like, are we going to have two eight, nine division championships? We might. Right. Did you say the NFC South?

I think the NFC West could end up being a bizarre nine and eight, eight and nine team. I don't think the Seahawks are, you know, going 11 wins. I don't know what the Rams are doing and the Niners. We'll see. Everyone's just assuming the Niners will get right.

Vimy Garoppolo does not look good. Doesn't look good. Well, the Titans, they're laying two and a half in Houston this week. And Solak and I are going to talk about that in the next segment. But it's just funny that the Texans, they're over under on FanDuel.

It was three and a half wins for the year. The Titans are favored to win the AFC South they're not even three point favorites in Houston so it's like that division is a shit show we're going to take a break we're going to throw it to the Solak segment then we're going to come back we're going to talk about

the Vikings Cardinals game a couple others and then we're going to really I have a couple underdog parlays I really like we're going to do all the million dollar picks and do the whole thing. So go have a soda. Okay. Maybe have a couple strawberries and a banana, and then you come back.

When you ride transit, please be safe. Yeah, be safe. Because what you do, others will do too. Others will do it too. So don't take shortcuts across tracks. Don't do that. In fact, just don't walk on tracks at all. Not at all. Trains move quietly so you won't hear them coming.

You won't hear them coming. See, safe riding sets an example. Yeah, an example for me. Because safety is learned. It's learned. Okay, give it up. Give what up? Really?

Really, really. This message is brought to you by Metrolinx. Okay, Ben Solak is here. We are taping this earlier on Thursday, so if anything happens, forgive us. Let's talk about running quarterbacks. You wrote about the Danny Dimes revolution this week. Yeah.

There are so few good quarterbacks that teams are basically looking at this and going, why would I play Matt Ryan? Why would I play Nick Foles? Why would I play Andy Dalton? Other than New Orleans is still playing them. I just, if I throw a guy out there who can at least run around now, the defense has to worry about stuff. If I'm going against the defense, that's a little slower. Like say the Patriots. Now I have some optionality. Is this a trend or is this something bigger? This is the,

uh, this is an accident is what it is. First and foremost. Uh, I don't think teams are drafting scramblers. I think teams were comfortable with the idea of drafting more athletic players. Right.

But like when the giants drafted Daniel Jones, nobody would talk about his athleticism. He like ran like, you know, he like 80th percentile broad jump, 70th percentile vertical jump, 50th percentile 40-yard dash. He's big, he's tall, he's got long strides. And all everybody could talk about was how he

read out one to two to three. It was, oh, he's good in the pocket, right? His mechanics are beautiful, right? So firstly, we fell a little bit bass-ackwards into this, right? We were more comfortable drafting athletes, but whenever we did it, like we drafted a Lamar, we drafted a Kyler, we said, yeah, design running game, option running game,

we're going to get them involved in the running game. And scrambling isn't really getting involved in the running game. It's just adding a layer to the passing game. So what you're seeing is not so much like, oh, let's go out and draft some scramblers. It's saying, oh, shoot, scrambling might be a lot better for our quarterback

who's not an elite level thrower, right? And scrambling is great for Josh Allen. It's great forrick holmes they're two of the most efficient scramblers in the league but for guys like jalen hurts daniel jones justin fields and marcus mariota who are some of the highest scrambling quarterbacks in the league right now all of them are leading offenses that at the very least could be described as pleasantly surprisingly better than maybe we thought they'd be a lot of it is what is your coded, taught response to pressure? Like take a Carson Wentz, for example. Wentz could and should be a good scrambler,

but he has decided that when he experiences pressure, he's going to put his feet down, move in the pocket. He's going to try to buy a half second of space, try to be big and then throw the ball. Like that's how he's decided to play. So it's a play style choice. Whereas Daniel Jones, who previously was that way, has now gotten the green light from Brian Dable and from Mike Kafka to say, hey, if you see

sunlight, we don't care about the progression. Oh, where's my check down to Daniel Bellinger? No, screw that. Go, run. And that's going to be a positive play for us. It's going to keep us ahead of the sticks. So a lot of it is play style and choice, right? If you see sunlight, take it. And what this does is, to your point, you say there's no good quarterbacks, right? This raises the floor of quarterbacking. It doesn't raise the ceiling. Like, it's good for Mahomes, it's good for Allen,

but, like, scrambling is never going to be a play where, like, wow, we have a new era of, like, scramble-first quarterbacks who are revolutionizing the league. But instead, it raises the floor. It takes guys who are middle-tier to below starters, Hurts, Jones, Mariota, Fields, and makes them more viable.

And that's how you get what we really have right now, which is a very thick middle class of NFL quarterbacks. It's funny how the NFL is starting to emulate things that was working in Tecmo Bowl and Madden in like the 90s, where, you know, you just Madden, one of the one of the my favorite offenses was either like five wide or four wide with like a tight end, whatever, and send people deep and then just scramble the quarterback for seven yards. But then there was this run, I'm going to say like five, seven years ago when people were worried about quarterbacks moving around and taking hits. That became a whole thing, right? Yeah.

These linemen, the linebackers are too big. These guys are 250, 300. You don't want to have your quarterback get hit. And now it seems like coaches are okay with their quarterbacks getting hit. Like Brian Dabo, I don't know if he's trying to kill Daniel Jones or not, but that dude's taking more hits than anybody.

And I don't know, like going through it with the Pats and the Bears on Monday night, the Bears, not a good team, but it just felt like every time they would just send wide receivers deep and then fields had was basically going one on five against these slower defensive linemen. The linebackers weren't fast enough to come up and it did seem like something. Yeah, so there's there's two critical notes there. The first is send the receivers deep.

What scrambling quarterbacks do is they become their own checkdowns. I don't need to have a back, you know, chip the defensive end and then release to the flat anymore. Now either that back can be part of a play-action pass or you can release into a route right now. The chip is not, I don't need the chip. The quarterback's going to make the defensive end miss. And so now I have more receivers, more bodies,

with which to flood the deep areas of the field. I can send five guys into the concept deep. And now I'm going to stretch you out downfield, especially Allen and Mahomes. This is why they're such valuable scramblers by EPA. It's because they send dudes flying down the field. You as a defense go, okay, intermediate zones, deep zones, sink, sink, sink.

Don't let them go deep. Make them throw shallow. And then all of a sudden you got Josh Allen, all 225, 230, 235 pounds of him, running at you with a full head of steam. He had 10 yards of cushion because you had no short area defenders. Nobody was sitting in short zones. You're so worried about the deep pass.

So that's what you see in fields in Mariota. They send routes flying down the field. And then when they talk and run, there's nobody there to handle them because you flooded the deep zones. That's number one. Number two is the injury rate thing. We've seen data wise now that scrambling quarterbacks, or particularly we should say injuries to quarterbacks,

are more likely to occur in the pocket, on pits in the pocket, than they are on scrambles. There's a couple reasons for that. One is that the quarterbacks who scramble tend to be better athletes. It means they've spent more time running around. They just know how to get hit, how to avoid being hit, how to cushion themselves when they fall. Your Jared Goff just never

got hit ever. He was never running at any time at any point in his football career. So when he starts getting hit at the NFL level, he doesn't really know how to deal with that and how to handle that. So that's number one. Number two is that when you scramble, you have the ability to protect yourself. The slide is available to you and teaching quarterbacks like Josh Allen how to slide has been really important to him. Something that the Giants might need to teach Daniel Jones if they intend on doing this for a long time because Jones hates sliding. In the pocket, you don't have that option. Sure, the flag is meant to protect you, the roughing the passer call, but it's after you've been hit, right? The slide protects you from the hit.

So data-wise, if you look at Lamar, over the course of his career, his injury came being tackled behind the line of scrimmage. His injury came being sacked. It didn't come being scrambled. When he scrambles, he does a great job protecting himself. Kyler always going out of bounds. Like the scrambling quarterbacks tend to know how to avoid the hits.

And so we don't see a high injury rate on scrambles. We see on hits inside the pocket. So swinging this toward million dollar picks this weekend, the Colts said, screw it. Matt Ryan is getting the shit kicked out of him.

Can't really move anymore. He had a couple of miracle fourth quarters, but it was a lot of smoke and mirrors. It was so frustrating as a gambler. He's one of the reasons we're in the hole in million dollar picks. Yeah, they kill us. They finally said screw it. Sam Ellinger goes in and they're trying to give

themselves this optionality. Who knows if he's good? We like Washington this week. I thought Washington looked legit good last week. And there's even like, it spills on to Green Bay too, because Green Bay loses a really weird London game. They come back,

they play the next week against the Jets. They lose that. And then they lose Washington. So now it's like Green Bay is terrible. And whether they're terrible or not, I don't know. Or Green Bay is worse than we thought. Right.

But I actually think Washington played really well in that game and they have multiple guys who can make 20 plus plays. They can run the ball and their quarterback situation is better than it was three weeks ago. Their defense is pretty good. It's certainly better than I thought. So I look at that

game and I just like what is the case for Indy other than their home unless Ellinger is just way better than we thought yeah I think if you're if you're trying to make a case you probably start with Jonathan Taylor and just kind of his return to full health and coming back to the roster they've talked a little bit about the potential just

you know using him as a bell cow in the way they used him last season they were trying to avoid that this year but it's starting to feel like okay maybe we just got to go back to like Jonathan Taylor every first down all the first downs you just kind of hammer him all the way home so expect a healthy maybe we just got to go back to like Jonathan Taylor, every first down, all the first downs. You just kind of hammer them all the way home. So expect a healthy Taylor. They're going to go back to the 2021 formula.

It's going to work great, right? Maybe, I don't know. This offensive line is extremely outclassed by this Washington defensive line. When Washington wins defensively, they win because their front outclasses the opposing front. That's exactly the case.

Washington defense versus the Indianapolis offense. So yeah, maybe Ellinger can scramble. I think Ellinger's going to be better for the Colts in terms of solving that pressure problem. But in his first start, you're going to expect some issues. You're going to expect some mistakes.

I don't think it's going to be a clean transition. You think he might need to get his sea legs under him. The other thing is, right, this Washington offense under Taylor Heineke gets the same boost

we're hypothetically talking about with Ellinger. Heineke scrambles. Heineke gets out of the pocket in the way that Wentz does it. You saw that emphatically matter against the Packers. He's picking up first downs on third down with his legs. Heineke's experienced, too. He's not going to have the same rough and tumble issues.

I was surprised to see this line as wide as it is. I was thinking, okay, maybe like Colts by one, pick them. At plus three, that's too much. And so even with the juice, I like Washington plus three quite a bit this week. These are two bad DVOA teams, just FYI. Indianapolis is 31st. Washington's 28th. On FanDuel, 64% of the bets are on the money spread

and the actual spread for Washington. It makes me a little nervous, but I still like them in Undog Parlay. I continue to think Indianapolis isn't good. For some reason, I decided to tease them last week against Tennessee in real life. Ooh. To eight and a half, and they lost by nine. They were set up.

It was more of a zag against Tennessee. Tennessee's playing this week. They're two and a half point favorites against Houston. You zagging them again? Well, here's the thing with Houston, and I know you're not a Houston fan. Well, you say why you're not a Houston fan, then I'll make the case, and we can decide. Alright, so why I'm not a Houston fan

in a nut, in one graph is, Josh Jacobs had 140 yards and three rushing touchdowns. The week before that, Travis Etienne had like 13 rushes for 70 yards. The week before that, Austin Eckler, 13 carries, 60 yards, two touchdowns. The week before that, Khalil Herbert, 20 carries, 150, 70 yards, two touchdowns.

We got a lot of very talented backs. We got a lot of middle-tier talented backs, excuse me, producing quite well against a softbox Texans defense. Now we're getting Derrick Henry. I am very, very worried about that. I think the Texans might have eight possessions in this game total. I think this feels like a Titans just kind of sit on you. It's ugly.

Nobody likes it. Red zone goes to it like four total times in the course of the entire afternoon, but the Titans just control the clock. That's what I'm worried about in this one. My counter. Yeah. Tannehill's got an ankle injury now. Tannehill the last three weeks threw for 450 yards total.

Burks is out. They have no, I mean, they might have the worst wide receiver crew in the entire league now without Burks. I'm not even sure Burks was good. Tennessee won four straight. They beat Matt Ryan twice, who's no longer,

basically he's been excommunicated from the NFL. Carr, who almost won that game and probably should have, and then Wentz, who was no longer a starter they won by 2-7-4-9 Houston's first half stuff is really interesting they

just going in order after the first half 10 up 10-3 against Indy 6-6 Denver 14-13 Chicago the Chargers they were down 20 at halftime

got that back to three in the fourth quarter. 6-6 Jacksonville and 10-10 Vegas, and they were up three in the fourth quarter. They've been around all of these games. They linger. They hang. Even though the final scores have said, oh, even last week, it looked like that was a blowout. It wasn't a blowout. That game was close. So I was looking at Texans' first half plus 0.5 and then thinking about them for underdog parlay. More as like, I don't know if there's a difference between these teams.

You're right. If Henry rushes for 200 yards, it's a little different. I will say, I won't take a bet on this game until we get more injury information, but I'll be much more inclined to be on the Texan side. You brought up Tannehill.

Simmons didn't practice on Wednesday with an ankle. Center Ben Jones didn't practice. David Longs, their starting linebacker, is a great player, very under-talked-about player, didn't practice on Wednesday. Bud Dupree, questionable from Wednesday practice. They are very, very banged up. I think a lot of these guys are going to come through this week, but we've got to see.

And if you're in a position where they're missing their center, I think you're in a spot where they're missing, like their center, I think you're, you're in a spot where the running game might suffer because of it. And then the passing game point you brought up is critical, right? You're kind of, I think the Titans are going to be good. I think they're going to run the football well, and you'll be able to control this game. If they don't,

I do not think the Titans can pass their way into a game against the Texans. I think the Texans are going to be successful. They can get times on a passing script. So under for me also makes sense in this game, because if Houston, if Tennessee is running it, the clock is fast. Not a lot of points going to be successful. They can get Titans on a passing script. So under for me also makes sense in this game because if Tennessee's running it, the clock is fast. Not a lot of points going to be scored.

If they can't run it, they're not scoring, period. So 40 and a half is the line. This NFL season... Seems easy. This NFL season is making you take these unders at like 40 and 41 and it sucks and it's so low and it's tough.

But 40 and a half feels a little high for me for Texas Titans. And we'll see with Pierce. What if I offered you Pat's money line minus 134 against the Jets? Patriot's money line stresses me out because last week, Patriot's money line was just a nightmare spot for million dollar picks. I love the under.

And for America, because I think everybody had them in a teaser or parlay. Well, so who do you like if you... Who's your best straight-up bet if it's not the Patriots? The Dolphins. The Dolphins are at minus 186 to the Patriots minus 134.

This Lions team is in a little bit of free fall right now. I said all year I thought the Lions were going to lose a bunch of games, but the vibes are going to be really good. It turns out the Lions are losing a bunch of games and the vibes are really bad. The story is about comparing Dan Campbell's record to Matt Patricia's record.

How long is ownership going to have patience? There's some desperation there, but typically when we say, oh, a team's going to get desperate, they're going to start being more aggressive. The Lions already do that. The Lions already go for it on every fourth down and they're trying to score a ton of points. They don't really have any buttons to press in terms of their desperation. This Miami defense is a defensive game.

Yeah, that's true. How can it be a kitchen sink game when they play every possession? They're always a kitchen sink team. I don't really know what button they press. If you want to beat this Dolphins defense, in my opinion, you throw on it. You can run on them a little bit, but I think throwing and taking advantage of the weakness at corner,

especially with the injuries they've had as the move. Detroit's not capable of doing that, right? Jared Goff can throw it, can get completions, then he'll throw a knucklehead pick and he'll kill you. Meanwhile, defensively, Detroit's already the worst defense in the league, and then this is just their nightmare matchup. They want to play man covers. They play like a 44% clip

more than anybody else in the league, and you're facing just a speed demon wide receiver room. They have nobody who can run with Tyreek Hill, let alone Jalen Waddle. And if you get Jeffrey Okuda with safety help over one of them, you still got to deal with Amani Arnawari or AJ Parker over the other guy. Like they're not suited to play man coverage in this game. And that's all they really feel comfortable playing. No Tracy Walker.

So they don't have their safety valve. This could get total barn burner after the Dolphins offense. I love Dolphins over 27.5 points. Love Dolphins minus 3.5. Well, I have two stats for you and I'm not sure how I feel based on what you just laid out. First of all,

I'm looking for, there we go. So if you take out the fourth quarter against Baltimore, Miami scored 28 points in that weird fourth quarter when it was 90 degrees and Baltimore lost half their defense

and they had four touchdowns. Yep. The other 27 quarters, they've scored 119 points total. That's terrible. Okay. That is like basically

four points a quarter, four and a half points a quarter. Detroit has given up 24 touchdowns, which is the worst in the league. They had a bye week. They've given up the most touchdowns with which is the worst in the league. They had a bye week. They've given up the most touchdowns with a bye week in the entire league.

So this feels like it's like the, something's got to give. Either Miami's offense, if they can't score in this game, they're never going to score. Or Detroit, this is going to be one of the legendary bad defenses we've had.

Because 24 touchdowns in six games, that's ludicrous. That means they could give up like over 500 points. So I'm leaning toward you. I just, here's why I'm afraid to bet it. I am just terrified of Tua. He threw four picks in that Pittsburgh game that they dropped. And they weren't like, oh, that would have been a really nice catch.

These were like drops. Basket catch. Four drops. And if you're a Miami fan watching that where you can't even get, you needed 19 points to win the game. You couldn't even get there. And Pickett's in a position to win down the stretch and he just couldn't make a throw. But I just, I don't

I don't know about post two concussions too. Especially like some of the stuff they used to do with him where they weren't afraid of who was going to get hit. It didn't, it seemed like they were kind of coaching that game. So he wouldn't get hit that much. I agree.

He's not going to hit that much. And he's just a pocket quarterback. I don't think he's very good. No. So I, I, I absolutely agree with the concerns about Tua in that, uh,

that first game back from injury. I think that, I think there's a lot of rust off, sea legs off. Okay, I'm back comfortable playing this sport and seeing the speed of it and being okay with it. I think they're going to be more comfortable with him getting hit. The other thing is that he right now in terms of yards per attempt against

man coverage, Tua is 8th in the league at 8.33. They do a great job of moving the ball in man coverage. In terms of depth of target, he's like 21st. They do so much in terms of quick game ball out after the catch that I don't think they're going to put him too much in jeopardy such that even if they are running the don't hit our quarterback offense, balls out right now to some of the best yak threats in the league

at receiver against man coverage. They're going to be running away from guys. So I like what I have there match-wise, even if they're holding onto the football. The other thing is that McDaniel turtled in the second half, right? They had 13 points out. They came out pretty quick. It was awful.

Had to kick some field goals. And then, right, they said, we're going to run the football. We're going to try to control this game and slow things down. And we don't want our quarterback to get hit. Just get to 19 points. The game's over. Pickett's not getting two scores in the second half. Doing that against this Steelers front, Larry Ogunjobi,

Cam Hayward, bad call. Doing it against the Lions front, much better. So even if we're in a spot where the Dolphins play a little bit turtley, I think they're going to be better doing so against Detroit than they were doing so against Pittsburgh. With that said, I'm also hoping Tua doesn't throw

four would-be picks because that's where you're worried about this game is the turnover regression both for the Dolphins, who are due for some turnovers, and the Lions, who have had over 50% of their drives in the last two games they've played and did a fumble interception or turnover on down. Eventually that luck's going to break for the Lions as well.

So the safest bet for me is Dolphins over 27.5, but I also like Dolphins on the spread. Dolphins money line with Cincinnati plus 4.5. Dead even as a parlay. Plus 100. I don't mind that at all. So you like Miami over 27.5.

What are the odds on that? It's minus 112 on Fandle right now for the team total. Which I know there were some 27s floating around earlier. And it's nice if you can get that number, obviously. But below 28, I feel okay with. That's interesting. Your main concern there is a second half, slow the game down, run the football script,

which is definitely something to be privy to. But just the level of Dolphins' team speed relative to how much the Lions are trying to match up and play with you one-on-one, it just feels like an explosive game. It feels like explosive games. It feels like explosive touchdowns for the Dolphins in this one. After watching the Patriots play the Lions, it was the

dumbest coach team I've seen in a long time. I feel like on the last four pods, you said that about the Lions. I mean, a team that's played the Patriots, I'm saying. Just watching my own team play a team that's just stupid, they stood out.

We have a Mount Rushmore this year because we have, I think, Denver's got to be in there. I think Jacksonville's got to be in there. Chargers. Chargers and then Detroit. I think that's our Mount Rushmore. Miami's kind of knocking on the door, though. I thought that Pittsburgh game was pong. Let me throw

Daniel started great, started aggressive. And then kind of this quarterback carousel and two-a-back. It seems like he's kind of pulling on the reins a little bit. Well, it's funny. He's basically like Shanahan light, where the first half looks great. And then as the game goes on, he has no answers. There's no adjustments. And it seems like the offense does.

This Vikings-Cardinals game you mentioned, which Vikings are minus 3.5. Arizona has 82% of the bets on a couple sites. On FanDuel, it's like around 58. Minnesota's 18th DVOA. Zone is 29th. Minnesota's 4-0 at home. Arizona was 0-6 in the first half until the New Orleans game last week, which was 14-14 with two minutes left, and then we had

two pick sixes in a row. The Cards' last first halves before that New Orleans game, they were 1-10, and they were outscored 160-58. There's a bet you can do on FanDuel, which is plus 110,

where Minnesota to win the first half and Minnesota will win the game outright. So basically you're saying Minnesota's up three at halftime and then they just continue it and carry it. I've been staring at it for two days. And I think this Minnesota team, they're four and out home.

They're actually, they're five and one. They look terrible in that Philly game. They've looked disjointed for most of the time, but they can move the ball and I don't like this Cardinals team. The coach and quarterback

got in a screaming match. Or I guess the coach didn't scream. The quarterback screamed at the coach. I just don't like what I see and I don't know why this line isn't like Minnesota by seven. I don't get it. What do you think?

Yeah, I've been looking for a spot to fade Minnesota because I think this pass defense is just not real. I don't, like, Ed Don tells the new DC there, it's extremely simple in terms of what he calls. It's extremely obstinate in terms of what he calls, and that's a frustrating thing. I don't think Arizona's the team to take advantage of it. You're going to get your DeAndre Hopkins looks.

You're going to get your one-on-ones versus Pat Peay and they're going to be great. They did move Hopkins around more than they ever have under Cliff. We were joking about desperation with the Lions. The whole book on Cliff was like he puts a wide receiver on the left side and then he doesn't move him.

Puts a wide receiver on the right side. He stays there forever. Hopkins came back. They're putting him in the slot. They're switching sides with him. Cliff finally grew up. He figured out the NFL moves guys around. Congratulations to him. Nice. They're putting him in the slot. They're switching sides with him. Cliff finally grew up. He figured out the NFL moves guys around. Congratulations to him.

They did do some creative things. I think if the Vikings lose this game, it's a huge Hopkins game. It's a huge Kyler game. It's a great, great passing game. If Minnesota's able to keep the shackles on that at least a little bit, Arizona's running game is not good enough. They have James Conner hopefully coming back in this game, but their

offensive line is super banged up. Justin Pugh's on injured reserve. Max Garcia questionable. Ronnie Hudson questionable. Cody Ford questionable. DJ Humphrey's questionable. There's a way that the line just implodes, depending on who can and can't play,

against what's a decent Minnesota front. And then offensively, as you bring up, Minnesota should be better than they are, but they're still good. They moved the football successfully. They have to get Justin Jefferson involved downfield more. Arizona might be a good opportunity to do that just because pass rush-wise, Kirk's

going to have a lot of time, but they can also run the ball really, really well against what's a disappointing Arizona run defense. Always has been under Vance Joseph. I will say that Dalvin Cook's efficiency numbers this year are bad. I don't know what's going on with Dalvin and with the health and with the play style

and everything like that. He's had a lot of injuries. Yeah, Dalvin's been leaving a lot of meat on the bone. And so Minnesota's a very trustworthy running game along the line and in the play calling. I wish Alexander Madison were getting a few more reps. I have a hot take on this game. All right.

It's weirdly a must-win for Minnesota because the Packers are in Buffalo and are 11-point favorites. I think they're underdogs. It's like the first time Rodgers has ever been a double-digit underdog. Yep.

If Minnesota wins this and the Packers lose, which they probably will, they'll have a four-game lead on the Packers. And this isn't like baseball where you're garbage Phillies team. I'm kidding. I'm rooting for the Phillies, but like where the Phillies can be 22 and 29 and then

somehow be in the world series. Like it's a 17 game season. You fall behind four in your division, not a lot of room to come back. They've already played once Minnesota already beat green Bay. And I, I, it's weird to say this after seven weeks but man it would be hard to see this weird Packers team coming back from four down with ten games to go I don't see it

yeah what about when the when the Bears upset the Cowboys and all of a sudden you got a four and four Bears team just floating around just waiting in the wings

make the case there's not there's not too much of a case but you just took you just took their second best defensive player yes we did and Quinn wasn't necessarily playing super well I don't think Quinn was There's not too much of a case. You just took their second best defensive player.

Yes, we did. And Quinn wasn't necessarily playing super well. I don't think Quinn was emotionally locked in to the success of the Chicago Bears defense over the beginning of the season. However, Chicago came out and ran the offense against the Patriots that we have long been hoping that Luke Getzey would run. And they've kind of been doing this

circling the drain sort of a thing where every single week they seem to get a little bit closer to what they want to be on offense. Week one, they came out kind of Packers inspired, you know, maybe a little more rollouts. Okay, let's see what works.

And then so on and so forth. It's every week they get a little bit closer, I think being the right thing they want to be on offense. Now I think the Bears are a decently dangerous offense. Enough that I think nine and a half against the Cowboys is a little bit too much. Fields in and of himself, just is such a difficult thing to handle week to week. Patriots, no, right? You kind of walk in saying, okay,

this is the guy. You have to worry about the scrambles. You have to worry about the runs. And then still he's able to beat you because he's just such a good physical talent. So the Bears are volatile, but they run the football really, really well. And Justin Fields can get you some third downs with his legs. At a 10.9 and a half point spread, we've seen the Bears are volatile, but they run the football really, really well. And Justin Fields can get you some third downs with his legs. At a 10.9.5 point spread, we've seen the Bears this season. They were in it late with Minnesota. They dominated New England.

They're in it late with Washington. They tend to not get blown out, save for that Packers game in Week 2. So to me, it's too big of a line, Bears-Cowboys. Yeah, I underestimated them. And I got to be honest, I didn't look at their first six in a way like, hey, should I be more nervous about this Pats game? But they beat San Francisco in week one. You write that off

because it's terrible weather. Get killed by Green Bay. They beat Houston, but that's because Mills threw a terrible pick in the last two minutes when it was a tie game. They had the ball on his own end. Close loss to the Giants, which now seems better because the Giants have been pretty resilient all year. They're at least a pretty good team. They lose to Minnesota in a game that was pretty disjointed for Minnesota, and we kind of blame Minnesota for it, but maybe the Bears should have gotten a little more credit.

And we got to remember, the Bears are down seven in that game, two minutes left. They're driving. They're on the Minnesota side of the field, and Minnesota picks the fumble up. So there's a way that game got to overtime. Washington, they lose 12-7.

That's a Thursday night. Three red zone trips. Mooney almost catches the winning pass. He moved that a half yard, and then they beat the Pats. I'm with you. That Bears line seemed a little high. I just worry about coming off this amazing win against the

Pats and all that stuff. The Dallas thing, whatever. Like, their offense just isn't that good. And I don't think that's going to change. If they win, it's going to be their defense. And this game in particular, this would be their defense just destroying Chicago. And that would be why they won. Yeah, it's the best front in the league against the worst offensive line in the league.

But it's kind of like, well, Chicago deals with insane pressure and sacks every single game. So does it really actually matter that much? Chicago's offensive line makes every defensive front look like Dallas. They're going to be kind of used to dealing with this. It's not going to have the same effect that other teams have when Dallas comes and just starts waxing their offensive line. Panthers-Falcons

is the last one I had. Panthers 30th DVOA, Falcons 21st. Atlanta's getting a ton of action in this game. For some reason, I can't quit the Panthers and their game back. We're taping this before the Tampa-Baltimore game tonight,

but that NFC South thing is a freaking shit show. That could be eight, nine wins it. I thought the Panthers looked really good last week. They've had moments. You look at their first two weeks, they could have won. Baker absolutely murdered them. And I can't totally quit them yet. This line seems too high to me. This line feels like it should be Falcons by three or Falcons by two and a half. It's Panthers getting four and a half. And I think

they're a really interesting underdog, but you're making a face. No, no, no. I'm agreeing with you. I'm double checking my Panthers injury report to make sure I know who's where. I love this Falcons team. I've been betting on them. I lost money on them against the Bengals. The formula is still going to work I think against the Panthers. They run the ball, control

the clock. At this point, they run the ball well against everybody. But there's no reason to believe Carolina won't stay in this game given what we saw from P.J. Walker in the offense last week. They are able to run the ball well against everybody, but there's no reason to believe Carolina won't stay in this game, given what we saw from P.J. Walker in the offense last week. They are able to run the football because they've had a very healthy offensive line to this point. They haven't had a lot of changes. And FYI, P.J. Walker was good in that game. Yeah, and then Walker, right.

I was heavy on the Panthers, very heavy on the Panthers against the Rams, plus 10. They didn't let Walker throw the football. Walker, he's played in the XFL for multiple years. He's been in the NFL. He started before. We've seen him play. We know he can throw. He's a grownup.

Let him, let the, you know, let the dog off the chain. And they did. And he can, he can hit a throw down the field. So it was disappointing that, that first week game plan, it lost me a lot of money. So I was off of them for the next week.

I was like, okay, the Bucs will handle it. They're not going to run a real offense with PJ. And then they start actually playing football. So I do think this Panthers team is going to have juice in the post-rule era. I think Walker is better than, you know, a lot of backups, let alone a lot of, like, whatever he is. Third string, fourth string. I forget how the

Panthers quarterbacks were initially ordered, but wherever he was. He brings you some functional ability and, like, the Panthers always had a good receiving core option, right? They always had, like, Terrence Marshall and DJ Moore. And like they were underachieving in the passing game. Just removing Baker and removing Rule makes this team better addition by subtraction.

So I think that that four and a half is a little bit bigger of a line than I expected. My Falcons team is still tough to fade though. It's hard for me to get my heart all the way into believing this Falcons team won't do it. I'm very interested to see what they look like live. Because at this point now, with how much they ran the football

when they were trailing by 21 against the Bengals, the Falcons have become a very easy team to bet live both on player props and on the spread because we know exactly how they're going to behave in the running game. If they're winning, we know what the Falcons are going to do. They're not going to make mistakes. They're going to eat clock. If they're losing, they're going to stay there because they're not going

to throw the football and they're not going to get aggressive. I don't know if you read the announcement, but we're dedicating 50% of the profits from Million Dollar Picks this week to the Where's Kyle Pitts fund. Kyle Pitts was kidnapped in July.

He's been missing. There's a whole Netflix unsolved mystery about it. He was at practice one day. He was driving home and then nobody ever saw him again. His family's been looking for him. The team's looking for him.

Who's narrating? Who's doing the spooky voiceovers? It's Liam Schreiber. Liam Schreiber's narrating. But we are donating half of our picks. Kyle, just come home. If you're listening to this, come back. Come rejoin the Falcons. Come rejoin the real world. We miss you. We had high hopes for you. Honestly, I don't...

This dude was taken ahead of Michael Parsons, Justin Fields. This is a disaster. They're not using him. Why don't they trade him? And they drafted the first receiver off the board in the top 10 in Drake London. And both Pitts and London have looked good.

When the ball is thrown at them, they look great. It's legitimately... It's either inexcusably bad coaching, inexcusably bad front office work, or inexcusable communication between the two. Because you can't draft players in the top 10 who the coaching staff has decided, pre-knowing their names,

pre-knowing who they are, we're not going to throw the football. So it just doesn't matter. You could just Calvin Johnson reincarnate. We're going to run the ball with Tyler Algier and Caleb Huntley. It's very, very, very poor roster management. The Pitts thing specifically, if they put him on the block, every team in the league will put a first round pick on the table immediately.

And that's what tells you you have a star player. That tells you you have like a game changing, math-altering, Darren Waller-esque player. The fact that they won't use him is... Talk about Mount Rushmore bad coaching. I think Arthur Smith is generally a good and impressive coach. This is such a huge black mark on what he's done in Atlanta at this point. Pits went for the same price as

Travis Kelsey in every league I was in. I'd rather have Travis Kelsey. By the way, he's on all of my teams. Alright. Ben Solak, good luck. Eagles win this, right? I don't have Travis Kelsey by the way he's on all of my teams Ben Solak good luck Eagles win this right I don't have to worry can I throw them in a tease is there any fears at all the fear is that my dad is a Steelers fan my sister is a Steelers fan the best man

at my wedding was a Steelers fan so if they lose I'm never going to hear the freaking end of it so if there's a game not to drop if there's a stupid game not to lose, please, please, please don't let it be this one. What's more realistic? Eagles 38 to 10 or this game is tied with two minutes left in the

fourth quarter? Eagles 38 to 10. Okay. Good to see you. Thanks, Will. Alright, Schrager's back. Million dollar picks last week was going to be our big week. We were going to basically sweep the board. We had a little flyer on a 10-1 Steelers underdog parlay that lost, but we had won everything else.

All we needed was for the Pats to come through. Pats did not come through. They lost. So we only won 14K last week. That's it, Bill. I swear, I'm on the flight back from LA after those one o'clock games. We had a huge Pats bet. We had an underdog parlay. We hit with the Seahawks and the Giants.

I'm doing dancing in the aisles down. We hit our underdog parlay. 14K. I'm looking at these games and I got killed on many of these. But the worst games of the year, there's all these stats. Favorites of seven points or more against the spread this year

are now eight and 16, which according to Action Network is the least profitable start in 20 years. Games where a team has drawn at least 51% of the bets on the spread this season are 43 and 61 according to Action Network. So basically- What's this mean?

Vegas is kicking ass? Is that what it means? What this means is with the gambling boom and the public and all the information we have and more and more people gambling, thinking about gambling, all this stuff, you basically don't want to be where the public is. Okay. And if you want to go a little further, the stuff that used to work forever, the teases, the parlays.

Everyone knows them. Well, everyone's on them like everyone had the pats on monday night um but just in general the league seems like it's in a little bit of flux and i think it's because the aggressiveness on fourth down i think is a piece of it um the games are lower scoring like the unders are all out of whack and just in general like we covered in the segment we did earlier, like there's only three good teams and week to week, anybody can beat anybody. So over and over again, you're looking at, like these are games we lost. Um, we lost some of these,

a million dollar picks bears plus eight and a half over the pats. They were like plus three 60 Panthers plus 13 over the bucks. They went out right week, six Steelers plus nine and a half over the Bucs. Week five, Texans were like plus eight and a half over the Jags. We had the Giants beating the Packers in week five. The Colts losing to the or Colts beating the Chiefs in week three

which seems improbable now, which was a big loser for us. And then week one, Bears over 49ers. And there's been a couple others too, but there's been an unusual number of, oh my God, I got fucked on that game. And I don't know if this is a trend or if this is just the way the NFL is now.

Listen, you're not like Mr. Gambling, but do you think this is the way the NFL is now where we just can't count on teams anymore? It's interesting, right? This is a different kind of season where there's, you could say it's parody, but there's also this other element to it where the comebacks are wild. I read a stat that there's been like 19 games where a team has come back from 10 points or more already. So you're not even safe. There's always a comeback that's brewing.'s brewing it almost feels like you're playing nba jam and uh you know the computer has the ai on and they can come back and everything you make goes in at the end so by the way basketball is a little bit like this now too with the three point

i guess there's just more variance it feels like in basketball and football yeah i think the other part of that with the football that is interesting is that these teams do not practice in July and August like they used to. So it's almost like you're taking a dart and you're betting on projections, but also what the team did last year. And then in your brain, imagining what Allen Robinson's going to look like with the Rams. You're thinking, okay, I think, I think Tyreek Hill is going to be great for the Dolphins. There's no proof of concept. So you don't really have them as a preseason, the training camps, whatever. And then you get to the season, these guys aren't practicing as much. I've, I've heard from so many coaches that veteran day off, veteran day off, this guy's got a veteran

day off. The football sloppy. It's sloppy. You didn't have two-a-days. You don't have the same kind of hitting. You don't have the same kind of practice in the summer. You only have three preseason games. You'd be lucky if your veterans even played any of them. And then during the season, you're giving guys days off. The one team that plays preseason and hits and does it all and goes full speed is Andy Reid and the Chiefs. You know what you're getting. You saw it all preseason. You saw him hitting all these guys. Right. But the assumption that we just expected that Brady's offensive line was going to be what it was with Brady not there and just, okay, yeah.

Or Burrow, same thing with Burrow and Cicero. Yeah. So I think there's a lot greater variables because going into the season, that first month, six weeks, teams are still getting their sea legs. They're still figuring it out. It's not great football.

It is not aesthetically pleasing. You watch these games. There's bad decision-making. There's penalties. There's turnovers. There's strange officiating on some of these calls. So I don't know. The quality itself is not where it's at,

and yet ratings are as high as ever and parodies as high as ever. In the old days, I would have told you, let's tease Buffalo against green Bay down to two. Let's do an eight point tease three team or tease. Let's do bills down to two and a half against green Bay at home. Let's do Philly down to two and a half against Pittsburgh at home.

And let's do Dallas down to one and a half against Chicago at home. That sounds on paper. We'll just throw that in even odds. Great. Shock it up. There's a win. But now I look at it and I'm like,

all right, I don't want to tease anything to minus two and a half anymore because over and over again, we've seen these goofy two-point conversions and teams winning by two, winning by one.

So the number three used to be the, you wanted to get any tease under three and you're like, I'm good. All games end in three, seven, 10, 13. Now that's out the window. And then on top of it, like, yeah, I trust Buffalo, but I don't really trust anybody. Like could Rogers go in there and beat Buffalo? I don't

know. Could, could Pittsburgh who almost beat Miami last week, put together a cool game plan, shut down Hertz, get a turnover. Yeah. They beat Tampa two weeks ago. Yeah. Right. And then the Bears just went in New England and won and they have a ton of confidence. I don't trust Dallas to beat them. So I basically think the three-teamer's dead. I wrote about this in 2004. It's in my archives. Did you look it up? Let me hear it. Oh yeah. I wrote this whole, this whole thing about how I was at lunch with my girlfriend or my wife. And, uh, and I was wearing a Pat's hat and she was like,

Hey, Pat's hat. I'm from Boston. She's like teasing the Pats this weekend. The three teamers are winning every week. And it was what, what I had been writing about on the website. The three teamers won for like 11 straight weeks.

There was like five teams. It was mix and match. They won, they won, they won. And then there was that famous game when the Pats blew the 10-point lead in Miami. In Miami, right? The year they won the Super Bowl on a Monday night. And that was when everybody lost. But now that game's happening every week.

Game's every window. You get that at one o'clock, you get that at four o'clock, you get Sunday night, and then you get the Monday night. I don't fully understand it. So what's the solution? Because everyone's trying to crack the code, but it's truly a dangerous game to start to guess who's not going to

eat it this week. Every team has eaten it. This is not the year to bank on this team. So what are you? I think the solution are the underdogs. Looking at how we've been doing million-dollar picks this year, we're 2-6. We're good on the underdogs.

Underdogs, we've won four and lost 12, which is where we want to be because every underdog we've done has been plus 500 or higher. So if you just net that out, we're winning. Straight up on million-dollar picks, 14 and 10. Teaser parlay, two and six. And that is down 2.42 million for the year. It's because of the teaser parlay record, two and six.

And it's shit like the Chiefs not being able to beat Matt Ryan. It's the Steelers somehow going in with Trubisky and beating Tampa, or last week, Fields going into New England, or the Texans beating the Jags 13-6. And it's like, I'm out on teasers and parlays. I think that's it. All right. Let's shake hands right now. We're done. We're done. But I said this to Sal in our over-under pod before the year. I'm like, I'm not doing teasers this year. I'm like, I'm not doing pieces as you're about. I'm just going to do

straight up an underdog parlay. If I just listened to myself, we'd be good. Anyway, I sound like an idiot, but... No, you don't because I also,

I do this with you and we go through the games and like, I've got my friends who do all this stuff and I'll get the text like, how is Simmons going through the zero?

I'm like, I don't even know the terms you're using and like, he's betting through and I'm like, we're just trying to pick games. That's hard enough. That's hard enough right now.

All right. First game I really like. Minnesota against Arizona. Now, Minnesota, it's at minus three and a half. They're trying to sucker you in and then all of a sudden Arizona loses by three, so you lose the bet, but Minnesota wins.

Arizona has been so bad in first halves, covered it with Solak. First six weeks, lost every first half. Finally against the Saints. They win the first half because they get six sixes. So there's a bet on FanDuel. Minnesota to win the first half and Minnesota wins the game outright, plus 110.

I see it. I see it. I see it. And I know Arizona just has this long break, but Minnesota is coming off a bye. So that's kind of negated with that. Also, we've been talking about it since week one. I don't know. Maybe I'm crazy. Everyone on TV Friday morning was like, I loved it. There was fire. I didn't like Kyler Murray cursing off his coach on national TV. Yeah, you and I didn't get to talk about that. Yeah, that was bad. I didn't like that. I have this sinking suspicion that that is all going to be captured on hard knocks because they're doing the in-season hard knocks get, you're going to get a bunch of like Cliff Kingsbury looking like Jim from the office, like looking at the camera.

What am I supposed to do here? Like, I mean, Kyler's cursing him off on the sidelines and you see Cliff, he's like, I don't, I don't know what, and the reason that they had the blow up obviously is that Cliff is in Kyler's ear, he's in Kyler's ear. And Kyler's telling him effing calm down, effing calm down. Do that at the locker room.

Do that at halftime. Do it, whatever. And like, DeHop, who, of all the guys, DeHop comes back. And like, I know that he and Cliff have a good relationship. He and Hopkins have a good, he and Murray have a good relationship.

So DeHop is suddenly, DeAndre Hopkins, like the peacemaker between everything. I just don't love it. Like, I don't love it. So Minnesota, all the vibes are high. O'Connell and Cousins are going great. Their fan base is thrilled. They're under the radar just enough where they're not getting the, is this Minnesota's year talk? I think this one is Vikings and it's Vikings big.

Mention this to Solak. Minnesota's 4-0 at home, but if they win this game and the Packers lose, then it's a four-game difference. Plus Plus they already have the hammer because they beat them once. So weirdly, it's a must win for them. I could not agree more with the cards. Listen, the non-athletes sometimes overreact to things we see when we watch games, right? I always get mad about this in basketball. Two guys argue on a basketball court. I played basketball for two thirds of my life. people get mad at each other when they're playing together and you yell, but it's fine

because it's basketball. You get competitive. Like, Clay Thompson and Devin Booker on opposite ends. Yeah, and then they both showed so much respect afterwards. I loved it. They're just talking shit.

Yeah. But there's moments sometimes that I think sit on the other side of that. Like, Draymond just hauling off and punching Jordan Poole, that resides in a different area.

We've seen the effect that it had and a couple other things about it in the Warriors, like the way they started the season. The Kyler thing, watching that Cardinals team week in, week out, when it was clear there was something wrong, and then that happens on national TV. We always talk about

going out to dinner with a couple who's fighting and stuff like that. But this was, this was the couple that doesn't get along. And you're like, Oh, we're going out to dinner with those people tonight. Now they're going to get in a fight. No, no, no, they're fine. They're getting along great. And then all of a sudden, they're just screaming at each other. I don't think Kyler likes Cliff. I don't think that offense seems like to me, it's way more likely Minnesota just kicks the shit out of them in this game than Arizona wins. But I like that bet. Arizona's first half history. It's been just awful. Minnesota home. I think that's a good one. So are we down with that one?

Yeah. And I'll correct you. I think Kyler doesn't dislike Cliff. I think Kyler's just apathetic to the whole thing. So when you're yelling in my ear, I think it's just like, shut up, dude. You're bothering me. Yeah, you're bothering me. And Cliff said something in that press conference. He took the high road for the most part, but I think he let a little bit out when he was like, yeah, it's a Gen Z thing. And the second you start labeling the generations- He said that? He said Gen Z. It might be Gen Z, whatever. Oh, interesting. It's a generational thing. Wow.

You get into that, and then they won that game, and you should feel good. And then the whole story all week has been that blow up. That's not where you want to be as a team. Minnesota's just the opposite right now. Everyone's feeling good and feeling themselves. But something to watch for sure. And I would also say that Minnesota, they're one of those teams that's going to be like kind of a snowball with the good things. Like new young GM, new young coach,

obviously the wide receivers and all that stuff, but there's a lot of positive vibes. And this is a fan base that's so tortured. You always talk about your Vikings fan friend. What's his name again? Jeff Gallo. Jeff Gallo. Just tormented and you almost

feel like you don't want to believe in it yet, so they're kind of reserved, but as you start piling up wins, it's like, oh wait, I actually enjoy watching the Vikings again, and that's how I think this situation is. Also, nice spot for them. A little one o'clock game. Barely

on a TV in a sports bar. Right? No real pressure at all. Nobody really... Let's go to the Minnesota-Arizona game on Red Zone. Oh, I forgot about that game. What's going on there? Seahawks? I can't convince you on Seahawks minus three.

No. Giants find ways. I'm not betting against them. We backed off last week with them with the Jags because it's like they find ways. I don't know. I do like the Seahawks. They won. Broncos, Jags in London, I think.

Stay away. Stay away, right? Stay away. By the way, if the Broncos lose that game, who wants Bradley Chubb for 60 cents on the dollar? Who wants Jerry Judy? It could get to that point. Interesting.

And I'm telling you, the trade deadline's November 1st. If the Broncos lose, I could see some of these players not only being called on, but being shopped and just saying, all right, let's get something for this. This season's a lost season. I'm staying away from that one. Raiders, Saints, everybody loves Vegas to the point that it makes me nervous. You have New Orleans with minus 10 turnovers this year. I mean, on pace for a historically bad turnover thing. Raiders are two and four. All of them are one-score games.

Lattimore and Thomas are out. The only reason I mentioned this is I feel like this should be Raiders minus three, even though it's in New Orleans, but I can't trust Vegas, so that's a stay away for me. Niners, Rams. Niners have 70% of the bets. They're minus one and a half. Nobody likes what they're seeing from the Rams.

Hard to get excited for them. I don't even think McVay likes this team. It feels like a stay away, but I do kind of like, if it's ever going to happen for the Rams, they have to win this game. They won the NFC title game, but for the most part, the Niners have had their way with them.

It's just like a stay away to me. It seems too easy. It's not a good matchup for that offensive line. The Niners have a great defensive line, and they could just destroy whatever the Rams are putting out there in front of me. I wouldn't bet on the Rams. Yeah. I do like the Panthers plus four and a half against the Falcons.

Do you? I do. I just think those teams are even. So I want to, I'm submitting them as an underdog parlay candidate. There's not many I like this week, so I could get behind that. Dolphins, Lions.

Solak loves the Dolphins. Okay. And we're thinking Dolphins, Moneyline, potentially because he thinks... When we were talking earlier about what teams could just absolutely mushroom cloud it, I think the Lions are kind of in there, right?

I think the... Or did it already happen? Yeah, I think this is like after the blimp goes down and we're asking about it. Yeah, this is long. There's not some revitalization of this team at this point. I don't see it. So I would think, yes, Dolphins win.

And then Solak and I both loved Washington in that Colts game, at least as an underdog parlay candidate, because I like what they had with Heineke. I like how they played against the Packers last week. And I think that's what we considered. So the last one we'll discuss and then we'll do million dollar picks. Pat's Jets.

Pat's minus two and a half, minus 134 money line. The Jets offense, 32.7% on third down, 29th on first downs overall, 16, 20 plus plays. They lose on third down. 29th on first downs overall. 16, 20 plus plays. They lose Brees Hall. And Vera Tucker, who's having an all-pro season at linemen.

And Dwayne Brown's hurt. My play. Their five wins this year. Brissette. The two of backups. The Trubisky-Pickett combo. Sad. Downshott on Aaron Rodgers. Sad downshot.

And Brett Rippin. Those are their five wins. That was the best call. Charles Davis says, we knew about Let's Ride, but now we've got Let It Rip. I'm like, yes. It's like, do we really have that? I like it.

This Pats team, if it's a super athletic quarterback, I'm now nervous for the future. Lamar torched them. Justin Fields torched them. We don't have the linebacker team speed. In general, there's one type of team that I think is going to really give the Pats trouble. If you're just giving me a normal team

that's going to be a ball control, try to keep the ball, that's actually a good matchup. I want to appeal to you to all the money we lost on the Pats last week. Try to win it back with them on the Jets this week. Maybe not as much, but talk me out of it.

No, I can't. There's a psychological edge too, Bill. They have won 12 straight games against the Jets. 12 straight games. The last time the Jets beat the Patriots was 2015. The last against the Jets. 12 straight games. The last time the Jets beat the Patriots was 2015. The last time the Jets beat the Patriots in regulation in the regular season was 2010 with Mark Sanchez at quarterback and Dustin Keller being the best Jets receiver that day. He hasn't played since 2013. So you're talking about just years and years and years.

And then here's this ray of light. The Patriots come in hobbled. The Jets have this fun, carefree team. And then just as you want to get all in on the Jets, Brees Hall and Vera Tucker go down and you're like, damn. You can't jump in all the way because those guys were good. And yet, I like Michael Carter. I like the way this defense is playing. I think Sauce Gardner is excellent. And I think the Jets actually line up really good with the Patriots. The game's in New Jersey. All the Jets fans are holding their breath.

I can go either way on this one. I could absolutely see the Patriots winning. And a lot of that being just the psychological edge of Bill Belichick coming in there and being like, I own you. I like the Pats. Do you want to go? I'll go big on the Pats.

I'll go big on the Pats if you want. I'm going to choose myself. I'm going to choose to treat Monday night's game, which featured... I got Kyle a Panda Jack jersey on Fanatics. He's got a nice 13, Jones. It was supposed to come. It was supposed to come for Monday's game, which featured I got Kyle a Panda Jack jersey on Fanatics. He's got a nice 13 Jones. It was supposed to come for Monday's game. It showed up on Tuesday, kind of like the Pats.

They were supposed to show up on Monday. They didn't. You like that? That's good. I am choosing, but we have Panda Jack in the house. You got the jersey. Do you have the Anthony Jennings jersey? No, no, no. Kyle's got, he's got Judon. He has the Mac t got the jersey. Do you have the Anthony Jennings jersey? No, no, no. Kyle's got, he's got Jude on.

He has the Mac t-shirt jersey. He's got some throwbacks, but now painted Jackson House. I'm choosing to chuck a Monday night's game as the field thing got weird. The vibe with the, one of the biggest,

I talked about the other night on the pod. Sappy and Mac. Just like Belichick, like this has never worked in the history of football. Like you can't, because what happens, the fans will pick sides and Mac. Just like Belichick, this has never worked in the history of football. Because what happens, the fans will pick sides and it's just going to get weird.

Do it on a road game. Don't do it at home because now you have... I love Mac Jones. The fans are fucking booing him and chaining Zappy. That sucked. That Zappy reception by the fans when he came in. I mean, this is a conquering hero. This was crazy.

It was crazy. It was bad. It was damaging. It's almost like a bad dream. It was damaging. And it was an unforced error by Belichick that he doesn't do stuff like that. The third and long at the end of the first half with the Bears are up three, I think. And it's like, you know, you get the Judon sack

and then for Fields to just like break contain and go 30 yards on a scramble and set up another score, that was like a backbreaker. And you don't see that from the Patriots' defense. Well, the Myers fumble killed them. Killed. Because I really still feel like they were going to possibly win that game. And I think that fumble, and it was like, boom.

So I like the Pats. The Pats are minus 134 so if there's a team that you love that we can money line to get that down a little closer between the Bills the Eagles or Dallas I'm crossing up Dallas because the Bears kind of scare me but

Eagles or Bills I think the Bills handle the Packers man I think they're built differently I think Buffalo I know that the Packers, man. I think they're built differently. I think Buffalo. I know that we've done an hour podcast on how don't go with the big favorite here. But as much as Rodgers and Allen, we respect Rodgers' history. Allen came out this week and was like, I revere Aaron Rodgers.

I grew up wanting to be Aaron Rodgers. He's not taking this one lightly. I think Allen wants this one bad. Pat's Bills Moneyline plus 108. The Lawyer Malloy game. Let's go! Yeah, I like that one. We'll add that one to the mix. Alright, it's time. The

Million Dollar Picks for week eight. We have two winning weeks in a row. Last week, we barely won, but the Pats killed us. We're going back to the well, Peter Schrager. They owe us. Let'sger. They owe us. Let's go. They owe us money. The Brees Hall injury for the Jets was like

throwing a black cat in the field. Ruined the momentum. Their five wins go through the quarterbacks. The only good quarterback they beat was Rodgers. It's sad to press Rodgers. We thought about doing the Bills in a 21 to 30 point band to win plus 380 because that's how sad the Packers season has gotten.

Jets, a deceiving five and two. We both believe in the Giants. We're staying away from Giants Seahawks because we're afraid. The Giants have won our respect. They take care of business, close games, great coach. I'm not betting against the Giants or the Seahawks. Same thing.

We respect both teams. The Jets, I'm not sure they have my respect yet. And I think this is a nice spot for the Pats. Plus, embarrassing week last week. Terrible week. And I think that's my biggest thing. Can you wear that a little bit before you start doing a Patriots talk? I mean, that was as bad as it gets. You got to be better than that. One of the worst weirdest Belichick games we've ever had. And there's been good or bad ones, right? Like Jonas Gray that night when he ran over all those yards. That was like a fun one. The win game, that was a fun one. Josh Gordon caught

like a big Brady touchdown on a Thursday night. Remember that game? Yeah, yeah, yeah. They've been all over the map. That was a bad one. And I think they get past it. I think the Bears That was a bad one. And I think they get past it. I think the Bears were a weird matchup. And athletic quarterbacks, for whatever reason, the last two years with this Pats team have been a problem.

I don't think the Jets qualify for this. And I think Belichick... What's your Belichick versus the Jets thoughts? He's won 12 straight games over the Jets. He doesn't like the team. He doesn't like the franchise. Loves beating them. Loves beating them. Loves beating them. You have to go back to 2015 since they beat them. Then you got to go all the way

back to 2010 for the last time the Jets beat the Patriots in the regular season in regulation. Mark Sanchez was the quarterback. Pats minus two and a half. We're putting 500k on it. Win us some money back, Pat's.

Next bet. Minnesota, Arizona. Neither of us liked what we've seen from this Arizona team culminating in last week with a Boogie Nights type yelling match. Jack Horner, Dirk Diggory style between Kyler and Cliff.

Although Cliff didn't say anything. He just looked shell-shocked. What are my wins here as my quarterback screams at me on national TV? Do I go back at him? Do I have to be separated? What do I do? I don't know. Hard Knocks is filming this. I cannot wait.

Please, NFL Films. They're in-season Arizona Cardinals. They didn't even make a blip on the radar, but please include everything. Let us see everything. I want it all. Cardinals, 0-6 in first halves until last week's Andy Dalton pick six extravaganza. In general, I think they were two for their last 12, something like that. They are bad in first halves.

There's a bet on Fando plus 110. Minnesota to win the first half and to win the game outright. So they're leading after the first half, leading after the second half, plus 110, putting 500K on it. If you tie in the first half, is that a push or you lose? We lose the bet. Okay. You want to go a little less?

A little less on it? No, no, no. I'm good. I think Minnesota's coming off the bye, feeling good. We got the home crowd. Everyone's buzzing. The Packers stink.

We're good. Yeah. This is not a primetime Kirk Cousins start. This is a buried on the 8TV and Buffalo Wild Wings start. Yep. 500K. Minnesota to win the first half. Minnesota to win outright.

We're not messing with the Minnesota minus three and a half. And then underdog parlay. We've been heating up with the underdog parlay. We've been hot. We've been hot. Panthers to beat the Falcons with Washington. beat Indianapolis and Sam Ellinger plus 532. Texans to beat the Titans, Tannehill ankle injuries, some injuries. Jeffrey Simmons might not play.

Texans kind of a deceiving one, four on one. They've been in every game. That's plus 406. And then Carolina with the Texans is plus 4-95. We're going to do all three of those for 50K each. A little round robin. Yeah. Try to hit two. Just give us two and we're good to go.

List out what I've got to root for here. It's going to be the Texans, the Panthers, and the Commanders. Yeah. The C-words. Bengals, Miami. Minnesota to dominate Arizona and the Pats to win by minus two and a half. Hey, you know what I got to say? It's our week. Let's go. Feel good. We mixed up the batting order on the podcast. You went, Solak came in, you came back. We're doing everything we can to try to mix up. Those are, we're down,

by the way, like 2.4 million, but we're going to, I thought the bears would be the one that they, it's going to happen one of these weeks, the million dollar picks for week eight. Thank you, Peter Schrager. Thank you, Bill. Let's go. Let's go. Maybe. Let's go. Let's go. Sort of. Let's go. All right. That's it for the podcast. Let's go. Let's go. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Rob Mahoney. Thanks to Peter Schrager.

Thanks to Benjamin Solak. Don't forget Prestige TV podcast this weekend. I'm on there with Joanna Robinson. As soon as White Lotus ends, put the football game on mute and you can listen to us break down White Lotus. There you go. Rewatch was coming Monday as well. I'll be back on this feed on Sunday night. Let's go Harvard-Westlake. I feel the air Swept in On the wayside

I'm a bruised soul I never was And I don't have To ever