The Bill Simmons Podcast - No More Warriors, Lamar vs. Belichick, DC’s Baseball Title, and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Mallory Rubin | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode Date: November 1, 2019

HBO and The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss some NBA thoughts on the Warriors, Nets, Kings, Suns, Rockets, the 76ers-Timberwolves melee, and more (5:35), before giving out some NFL Million Dollar Picks and discussing the Washington Nationals’ World Series win (31:05). Then, Bill sits down with Mallory Rubin for Mallory’s Most Intriguing, in which she shares her top five story lines of the week, including potential Josh Gordon landing spots, Vikings-Chiefs, the Patriots’ toughest opponent so far this season in the Ravens, and more (1:01:25). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by State Farm. Just like football, life can be unpredictable. That's why State Farm agents are there to help. With over 19,000 agents, a local State Farm agent could be just around the block, whether you talk in person, by phone, or through the app. State Farm is there. Go with the one with coverage and agents you can count on. State Farm, talk to an agent today.

Meanwhile, it's that time of year when the days are starting to get a bit shorter and it starts getting dark much earlier. Hey, Google, when does daylight savings time end? Daylight saving time began on Sunday, March 10th, 2019 at 2 a.m. and ends on Sunday, November 3rd, 2019 at 2 a.m. Wow, isn't technology amazing? Remember to turn those clocks back this Sunday.

The Google Assistant is ready to help you get more done with just your voice in the car at home, everywhere you take your phone. A little help, hands-free, just say, hey, Google, to get started. We're also brought to you by TheRinger.com, where we publish an astonishing amount of pieces today. I'm taping this on Halloween on Thursday, but man, we have a bunch of baseball playoff stuff, basketball, Apple TV, you name it, it's all there. You can go check it out over there

as well as the Ringer Podcast Network and all the great stuff that we have there. Coming up, Joe House. We're going to talk basketball. We're going to talk Nats. We're going to do Million Dollar Picks. And then Mallory Rubin's back to do her, Mallory's most intriguing first. Our friends from Pearl Jam.

All right. Joe House is coming up in one second. Wanted to tell you about the Book of Basketball 2.0 podcast because we announced it yesterday. We announced it on TheRinger.com and Twitter and Instagram. I even dusted off Facebook. We've been working on this for a while, and I'm super excited about it. It was the project I had alluded to in a couple of times on my podcast. You can subscribe right now on Apple, on Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

We are launching a bunch of episodes on Tuesday, actually, a little bit of a binge mode model for the first episode. Not even a binge mode model, just a binge model. I had been thinking about my book, which I wrote 10 years ago, 2009, and how I wanted to update it and redo it because so many things that happened in basketball over the last 10 years, not just guys, pyramid rankings changing and stuff like that, but the decision, the heart and trade player empowerment, Curry's Warriors run Donald Sterling, all the things that happened just in the last 10 years, it's a completely different sport. And the thing I kept gravitating back to is my whole book was about the

premise of the secret. And now over the course of this past decade with players jumping teams every year, basketball's in flux in a lot of ways and I realized I probably was never going to write another book, but what I could do is reinvent it as a pod and take advantage of some different styles. We're going to have pyramid podcasts. We're going to have rewatchables podcasts for about, for games,

um, podcasts concentrating on certain themes. And then, uh, and then some audio essays too, that I'm actually excited about. So this is going to, it's going to feel a little different than this podcast.

Um, probably going to do 30 over the next 15 weeks. I'm not positive of the exact schedule yet, but there's a real plan in place. We've taped like 16 and I'm super excited about it. I really want you guys to listen to it. So if you like this podcast, I'm going to say there's a 100% chance

you're going to like Book of Basketball 2.0. And I'm excited to see how long it keeps going. One of the reasons I want to do it is because looking at what was going on with the rewatchables feed where people would find out about it and listen to one of their favorite movies or whatever, and then go backwards. And they would go in this library. And now we have like 90 rewatchables movies at this point, 91, I think. And they're evergreen. And you could listen to the podcast Chris Ryan and I did about Heat seven years ago.

And it's basically the same experience. I think with this podcast, which not complaining about it, it's just the reality of what this podcast is. A lot of the stuff we do is reacting to things in the moment. And I think from the possibility of creating something that could be listened to, not just now, but a year from now, two years from now, five years from now was the most appealing thing for me. Cause I really do think, you know, it's, it is like a book and unlike a book where I finished my book, I did

a paperback and then that's it. And then the book just ends up in bookstores and libraries or whatever. But ultimately you can't really keep working on it. I think with a podcast, it's a living, breathing thing. And, and I'm excited about that. I want that. I want this to be something that goes on for a while. So it's launching on Tuesday. I would urge you to subscribe on Apple, on Spotify and Google, wherever you're at your pods. And, uh, and I look forward to, to getting these out there. We spent a lot of time in those. Nephew Kyle's been working hard. Working hard. You look tired.

Feel tired. Thank you. All right. Speaking of that, he's going to have to edit this part as well. So let's bring House in. All right. Joe House is on the line. We're not going to start with the Nats.

We're saving them for last. We are talking about the Warriors first, then million dollar picks. Then we're going to talk about the Nats. That's going to be the entree. I want to talk about the Warriors first. This is the end of the legacy here. This was really a seven year run going back to the 2012-13 season. And you could feel it fading away this year. Thought maybe they'd be able to sneak into the playoffs. Who knows? And now it's over. Now people are talking about them getting the number one pick. I'm going to start here, House. People have already gravitated into the whole, this is actually good for them. It's good, bad news. It's bad for Curry, but this is actually, this will allow them now to tank. I am personally of the opinion, it's never good to lose anybody for a

season. And he's probably going to be out three months. I don't know how many prime Steph Curry years he has left. I was excited for one. I mean, great for them that they're going to potentially get a top five pick, but I hate losing guys. I don't think this is a good thing. I don't think there are any silver linings to this. What was your reaction? I have a different of um feeling and i'll have to confess i haven't given this a whole ton of thought i've been a little preoccupied i know save it save it i i'm not saying anything all i'm i'm exhausted i'm a little delirious i'm not uh 100 in my right mind i'm definitely not in my right basketball mind, but I will say this.

If you think about the season that the Warriors and their best and most important player were looking at coming into the 2019-2020 season, and we as a group, me, you, and Ryan Rosillo, uh, anticipated an extremely high usage year for Steph Curry. Yeah. We were thinking 30 points a game. Yeah. And, and like potential MVP candidacy kind of thing. Um, there, there is, you know, if you're at the 50,000 foot level, is that the best thing for Steph Curry? Is that the best thing for the Warriors at this sort of transition moment that they're confronted with and by? Because it was apparent even back when we had our over under podcast that Clay Thompson is not likely to come back. In fact, that news was announced like the day before the season started. Right. And the war, the Warriors over under disappeared from, from all of the gambling sites.

But so if that's what you're looking at as a season, does 30 points out of Steph Curry to get them to 44 wins and a seven seed potentially or an eight seed. Is that a good use of a Steph Curry year at this stage of his career? Cause he's over the age of 30 now. And so there aren't a lot of prime years left. That's like, do you want to use them up that way? Whatever he has left of the tank, do you want to use it up on a 44, 45 win season? See, I'm going the other way. I feel like you have only so many peak years and even Roussel and I did a podcast about Curry that

that's going to launch on the book of basketball pod when we launch it on Tuesday about his whole career. They were even subtle, subtle, subtle signs of attrition the last two years. And we're talking about somebody going from an A plus, plus, plus, But I think you could make a case statistically and even I test that he was at the peak of his powers probably three years ago. And then his crest, his apex was about a five-year run. And it was either going to end this year, next year, before he moves into that, you know, still you're, you're still an all NBA guy. Maybe you're not a top six guy in the league kind of guy. And now he just loses one of those seasons. And I think, you know, when you think about where he is historically right now, I think he's third

and made threes and he's almost in the 50-40-90 club, stuff like that. You kind of need these prime seasons just for the resume, and I think that's the bummer. Now, if you're looking at it just competitively, it's obviously better to go—we've learned this over and over again—it's better to go 20 and 62 than it is to go 42 and 40. And that's the cruel reality of the NBA. Yeah. But let that 20 and 62 come without high mileage on, on your best player. I mean, I will remind you it was just June.

We watched him and this is, this is a, is a nice compliment to your observation about him being on the other side of his crest. You know, he still could determine the outcome of games all by himself. But what he couldn't do is do that back-to-back because it just was too much physically for him.

So every other game in that finals, the Warriors had the opportunity to win because he put them on his back and he single-handedly took them to a victory or two or made them like competitive in games that they otherwise had no, no legit shot at being competitive in. But like, that's a big ask for an 82 game season this season with Klay Thompson entirely out of the mix and asking for him. I know, but

on the other side though, it kind of would have been fun to watch him just be the lone ranger for a year. I was, I was weirdly looking, looking forward to it. Once, once they figured out the rotation, I think it would have taken 20 games now. And they were, you know, obviously experimenting on the fly. I mean, you know, the, the right way to use Draymond, um, was still in flux and Draymond's frustration through these first handful of games. That was enjoyable. Um, I I'm not, I won't call it silver lining, but like I will harken back and maybe other folks have already done this with you. The 1995 San Antonio Spurs, I guess it was. It's 96. When David Robinson. Yeah, 96. Right.

Yeah. David Robinson became unavailable for a year. And, you know, they had great success with some ping pong balls. And Tim Duncan arrived. And next thing you know, the two-headed monster of David Robinson and Tim Duncan basically set them up for a 25-year run, the run that they're still in the midst of. It's not incredible. I mean, I know that Lakeham thinks that they are light years ahead

in Golden State. It's not out of the realm that they hit a little bit of lottery luck and arrive with a team that has Clay Thompson and Steph Curry and Draymond green and a rookie yet to be named. And who knows what D'Angelo Russell turns into over the course of this season. He's going to use another asset. Maybe he's on the team.

He's going to, he's going to turn into a Timberwolf. You know, I'm glad you brought up Robinson because this is a good example of what I was talking about with Curry. I think it's just really hard to miss years when you're at the peak of your powers. Because Robinson, before he got hurt, the three full seasons he played before, 94, 95, 96, he averaged 28 a game, 11 rebounds a game, and was shooting 52%. I mean, he was one of the best seven guys in the

league. Then he only plays six games in the 96, 97 season. And then after that next three years was when his body started to break down and we, and he just moved to a different stage of his career. Next three years, he was 19 a game and 10 rebounds. It was 80% as good, but wasn't the same. That goes back to my point. I don't like losing guys in their prime for whatever reason. And I do think they could have accomplished a lot of the tanking that I think might've ended up happening anyway, without having Curry break his hand.

We have no idea how bad this break is. We don't know how it's going to affect his shooting going forward. Like, yeah, I'm concerned about it. Those are important points. Yeah. Those are important points.

We did. How severe is the injury? When we're still, and I did the pot, I don't want to step on it, but you know, we, we did a little bit about just his career numbers right now. And you know, he's third all time in threes already. He has, he has 2,500 threes already. Reggie Miller second with 2,560 and Ray Allen's first with 2,973. He's over 16,000 points. He has a chance to get to 25,000 points and 4,000 made

threes, which- Do you think Michael Jordan will let him into the Hall of Fame at that point? I think he might. He's made 470 playoff threes. Like he's, he was starting to become interesting from a historical standpoint. He already was, obviously he's a back-to-back MVP, three titles, all that stuff. But, um, but I think every year you lose ends up coming back to haunt you later. And whether he's out three months, four months, it'll get dicey. Do you want to bring them back? If your team's seven and 40 or whatever? I think what's been stunning about how bad the Warriors have been is they've been down

by 30, I think, in three of these games already. They're not just losing. They're getting their asses kicked immediately. And they really might be the worst team in the league. We thought your team, the Wizards, was going to be the worst team in the league. The Wizards are fun. They're a fun league pass team. They went toe-to-toe with the Rockets last night. You were watching. I was flicking back and forth with that in the Nationals and the Celtic game. Actually, I was watching all three at the same time.

I'm not going to lie. But the Wizards are fun. And I think the worst team in the league belt is up for grabs. I think the Warriors are about to take it. Well, I thought it was going to be Cleveland or Charlotte. I didn't think that the Wizards were going to be the worst because I think that they're, I bet the under on them on, what was it, 27? So

like 26 games. They're going to win 28 or 29. I'm going to lose that bet because they have a group of young super hustling. This is all by reputation. I haven't watched, like I say, 30 seconds of them. Early returns from my

WizHead pals, my almost bullet homies in Washington, they love this team. They love the hustle. They love the youth. They love Roy. They love Hachimura already and Admiral Schofield and all this energy. I've somehow seen more Wizards than you have

for understandable reasons which we'll get to. Hachimura is good. I think there was bus stuff getting thrown around with him after the draft and athletically and that was a head scratcher, all that stuff. That guy is a classic knows-where-to-go-what-to-do guy. Bryant has carried over what he showed last year. Bradley Beal is a top 20, top 22 guy.

The shocker to me though, last night, Isaiah Thomas. He's, there's signs, there's real signs of life here. Like he, like, like legit, yeah, like legit juvenation. I think he had a 17 and 10 last night

but he looks way more explosive than he did the last two years so anyway congratulations on that I actually think I've now watched

everybody in the league for at least a half and I think this Warriors team might be the worst team though it's basically Draymond

it's Russell who's all offense and is not a good defensive player. And then they're already banged up with their big guys and then it's just a bunch of forgettable dudes. It's really bad. And this is a team that they will

assess this and if they feel like there's just no hope whatsoever and if Curry's going to be not back for two and a half months, they're going to tank it. The other team that's looked terrible is the Kings. And I honestly have no explanation for that. They look like they've already quit on Luke Walton. He just got there.

It's his fifth game, and they look like they've quit on him. So that one's weird. And then the Cavs, love looks like love again. I, I find it hard to believe they're going to be the worst team in the league. They actually have a couple of professional basketball players. So it is in play for the words, this,

the 97 Spurs thing, I think is, is a good call. And, you know, we've seen this a couple of times, the Celtics, I'm going to say the

89 Celtics, which snuck into the playoffs, but bird had missed that whole season. And, uh, and they were able to kind of rally and not, not have it kill them. The 99 bulls, I think were a different example of Jordan leaves, Pippen leaves, Phil Jackson leaves. And they were horrible. It was also the lockout season. So this can go a variety of ways. But I think this would be the bad way, this Warriors thing. And what's crazy is they have an incredible amount of media there. Because you have this seven-year run, and a place like The Athletic has four Warriors writers.

Guess who doesn't we want to read about the Warriors anyone this team this team is now they went from being the most famous team really we've had in any sport the last six years

to a team now that is completely irrelevant and it's going to be terrible so just how fast it's switched is crazy well maybe that's the that's the Oakland putting a little curse is going to be terrible. So just how fast it's switched is crazy. Well, maybe that's the Oakland putting a little curse on them. Like, you know,

a going away present from Oakland as they move into this, you know, gleaming spaceship of a stadium that everybody loves. But, you know, there's a little bit of a class war vibe to the whole thing. Maybe the city of Oakland put the stink eye on him for the season.

Well, you say that jokingly, but you know who you're talking to here. You're talking to one of the all-time karma evil eye. I'm half Italian. I totally believe in shit like this. And it is crazy. They ditch Oakland right as they're on the last legs of the Oakland thing. Durant goes down. Klay Thompson blows out his ACL.

Curry now breaks his hand in the new building. They just, after all three of those guys have had nothing really major happen to them in their careers. And then all three of them go down in the span of what? 14 Warriors games? Like, that's kind of insane yeah I look I think there's a nice takeaway here don't fuck with Oakland yeah

well the rate maybe the Raiders should have learned that before they go to Vegas they should get insurance on all their players we know this is but you just this has always been my theory with New Orleans basketball as you know.

I think they need to have an exorcism or something. With New Orleans? Yeah, there's bad juju with the New Orleans basketball. Something's off. I don't know. There's some weird shit going on there. All right. The other basketball thing that I wanted to mention is that I'm very happy with my Celtics team right now. And I don't know if you noticed this,

but they had a nice little comeback win on Wednesday night and came back. It was a great chemistry crowd into it. Really liked the style of play. Everybody just really giving it their all. And at the same time, the Nets are just going down in flames to Indiana. And then Kenny Atkinson has a quote after where he basically says,

our offense had no movement. We've kind of lost our identity offensively. I'm just like a pig and shit. I can't lie house. I really am. I'm really enjoying this. Well, I have to tell you, uh, we, there probably is an opportunity to take a look at October the 30th, 2019. I mean, a lot of things happened on the sports calendar across a whole variety of sports. We've just gone 16 minutes of basketball talk, the NBA, early in the season, and have not breathed word of a fistfight between Joel Embiid and Carl Anthony Towns. I mean, some big boys with some big level beef, and it's gone on and on. The social media stuff has been terrific. My man Embiid is throwing out the P word like it's cheap.

You know, Towns, I feel like uh carl anthony towns and i i am uh not one to slap myself too hard on the back but but i did in the over under podcasts uh uh basically call him out call out the t wolves i took a vicious under i called the under a lock and boy are they sticking it right in my face it's the best carl Carl Anthony towns we've seen in his entire career. And, and he's, he's so ready to, to, uh, show a new version of himself that he's out there picking fights with Joel Embiid, the best center in basketball. It was, it really had the makings of a brawl, like an old school seventies, but then they kind of just collapsed onto each other,

but we didn't have that one extra second where they're just throwing haymakers. The shocking thing to me was Ben Simmons. I kind of tried to choke towns out. They can say, they can say whatever they want about the whole peacemaker thing, but he was on top of towns with other people on top of him. So Towns has no chance of getting out of it. And he was choking them out.

Like Towns tapped. Everybody on social media is like, ha ha, that's so funny. That's so hilarious that Towns tapped out. It's like, yeah, he tapped out because he was getting choked to death by Ben Simmons. Like, I'm pretty sure this is illegal. This is a league that they'll suspend somebody a game. Cause you know, they,

they didn't like totally like their flagrant foul. And this was like a choke out. I was kind of shocked by that one. What'd you think of that? I mean, you're absolutely right. That's what the replay that I saw showed. He had him in the crook of it in that elbow spot,

right underneath the, the, the, the windpipe i mean it looked like a choke out to me and he had all his leverage his whole body was on top of him yeah it was it was not it was not a peacemaker effort i think i actually thought the timberwolves were right to get upset i thought uh and beads thing about i was raised by lions you can i i'm not afraid of cats or whatever he said. It was all time. I loved his

reaction right after the fight. He was immediately enjoying it. It was like he was in professional wrestling. I don't think we've had a basketball player that is wired more like a WWE wrestler than Embiid. He really is. He is the right time for this moment

in the NBA. He showed a lot of it last season he is he is uh enormously thoughtful he's creative and he just has a real sense for the for the moment he's ready to be uh the league villain he wants that that that villain role um well the thing i i also enjoyed is he goes down the tunnel. Did you see Carl Anthony Towns' parents going at him? Yeah, that's... That was incredible. So rich. I think this could...

Towns might get... This might get dark for Towns now. Why? This reminds me of... I don't know, like a TV show where somebody has a traumatic incident and they go kind of dark. You know, like in ER

when Anthony Edwards got beat up in the bathroom and all of a sudden his character is walking around with a gun. Remember that? Yeah, I do, of course. Or Dylan McKay was another one. It was concerning. Him getting his head bonked in the bathroom while he's taking a leak

has been an irrational fear of mine basically since I saw that scene. I never thought about that ever being a risk and yeah and anytime i'm in a public bathroom you kind of like once every 20 times i'm like is somebody gonna bonk me from the back you know i'm gonna smash my head yeah that's towns now towns is going dark he's gonna grow some crazy facial hair he going to have a little edge to him. Maybe he needed this. Is he still going to score 30 points and get 15 rebounds? Well, you know,

it's super early in the season, which means we're hearing from the Suns fans about how great they are. Talk to me at the 20-game mark. I'm not acknowledging it. Minnesota's 3-1. We get to hear about how Towns, he's finally making the leap, all that stuff.

But all I can do is judge stuff like what players jumped up a level and stuff like that. Like Siakam has gone up a level. That is something that will be there the whole season. Whatever happened to him over the summer, whatever lessons he

learned from Kawhi, the playoff reps, he's gone up a level. When you see it, you watch the Celtics. Hayward is just much better than he was last year. And their offense is much better than it was last year. Everybody's trying to drive to the rim constantly and the chemistry is much better. So I think stuff like that, like when I look at a team like Phoenix, at least, at least they look competent now, you know, they have a real point guard. Baines has been surprisingly good and useful for them.

And they just kind of feel more like a basketball team. I'm not ruling out them being way better than we thought, but, but the, the ones that the Siakam has been the one that's jumped out to me the most as just, and I guess Donchik too, a little bit, even though he wasn't good the other night, but just, But the Siakam has been the one that's jumped out to me the most. And I guess Doncic too a little bit, even though he wasn't good the other night.

But just looking for guys that go up a level. The other thing that really jumped out to me is how bad Houston's defense is. We were talking about the offense and usage rate and how are they going to share the ball and all that. Nobody seemed to have the, wait a second, both of those guys are pretty lousy on defense. And now they're going to be two of the five guys in the court at all times. This might be a problem.

Is there any, is there maybe, or maybe it's not a problem. What's wrong with who gives a shit defense? If you have a reasonable confidence that you're going to score more points than the team you're playing against every single night. If you feel pretty confident that you could score more than who points than the team you're playing against every single night. If you feel pretty confident that you could score more, then who gives a shit about the defense? It's a real throwback strategy.

I love it. Yeah. Well, you're going to be loving it all year because they're going to reenact the 1984 Nuggets, it looks like. We had Philly. I'm here for it. We had the Philly over.

That's looking good. 4-0. They're plus 11. We had the Golden State and over. That's looking good. 4-0. They're plus 11. We had the Golden State and Indiana Unders also looking good. I think we can cash in the Golden State Under at this point. We have Golden State and Indy to miss the playoffs. 32-1.

Could be one of the great bets we've ever made. Indy's 1-3. I can't figure out who the eighth playoff team in the East is as a problem because I think it's Philly, Toronto, Miami, Celtics,

Milwaukee. I think Atlanta and Orlando will probably actually get in there. And then that eighth, eighth spot is between Cleveland, Charlotte, Detroit, Indiana, Washington,

Brooklyn, Nick, Chicago. And that makes me think Indiana can get in unless Detroit can help us. Detroit is kind of, I mean, Brooklyn might be able to write the ship, but boy,

the, the, the, uh, you, the Kyrie, what Kyrie Irving does to franchises. I, the Kenny Atkinson,

the thing he said it yesterday, he talked to, it's already happening. Like there's already, it's all stuff that I thought was going to be happening in February. And it's happening in October. We're going to take a break and then we're doing a million dollar picks

and talking about the Nets. Hold on. All right, let's talk about FanDuel. We're going to do a Steelers Colts on million dollar picks in a second. Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are facing off. FanDuel Sportsbook in partnership with Valley Forge is giving you the chance to get an even bigger win

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Minimum $5 Moneyline wager. Max $200 bonus. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or in Indiana, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. All right, House. I'm just throwing these at you because I know you did no homework because your team just won the World Series. We did pretty good last week, by the way.

We broke even, unfortunately, but our big bet won, but then I lost all the other little bets. We lost 35K last week. We're down 505K for the season. Now, there was one week where we got scared, and I only bet 400K that week, so I have an extra

600 to apply to any week I want. And it might be this week, Cass. All right. We have the Colts minus one at Pittsburgh. Can we ride the Colts again? Can we ride them during Ewing Theory 2019, fresh off the Nationals winning a World Series without Bryce Harper. Do we just climb on the Colts for yet another week, like Willie Shoemaker and his twin, Don Shoemaker, and just ride the Colts in week nine? We've made so much money from them this year. Do we do it again?

I can't come up with a reason not to. And to be honest with you, I prefer the Colts on the road to the Colts at home. Yeah, I do as well. I am not a Mason Rudolph guy. I actually thought they could have lost that Miami game. Um, I think he's shaky and I think the Colts can get to him. I think the Colts got away with playing a bad game last week and winning.

And you look at the DVOA stuff with them. Cause we're now at the point with DVOA where we have enough sample size. And you can kind of tell who are the outliers, stuff like that. Indy right now is only 16th in DVOA. They're ninth offensively and 25th defensively, which I think feels about right. And they're 20 of the special teams.

Pittsburgh is 23rd offensively, 9th defensively, 23rd special teams. But here's why I mentioned that. I think the advanced metrics are throwing people off the Colts. And we're getting free points. They should be favored by three in this game. The advanced metrics say it's actually a pretty close game then you throw in three maybe three and a half points for Pittsburgh at home stuff like that

what the Colts have shown over and over again every single week is the ability to in the fourth quarter if the game is close they take the game and they take it down and they win it and they've done that basically every week the only game they lost recently was that one

they were down 14 and they still crawled back and almost beat. I can't remember who they were playing. But when it's close... It was the Raiders. It was the Raiders. So when it's close, when it's a one score game, I just feel like they've

proven over and over again that they can take it down. And I think they're healthier than they were. And I just am not a Pittsburgh believer. I just don't think you should have that much trouble with Miami at home on a Monday night. I'm sorry. They have not shown to me that they're even a 500 team. So I feel like I'm getting three free points.

As somebody who has not thought about football for four days. Does that sound half decent to you? Yeah, sure. I mean, again, we haven't encountered yet a reason for us to not continue to ride the Colts until demonstrated otherwise. Right. They've earned the respect. They've earned the benefit of the doubt. The Steelers have three wins this year.

They beat Cincinnati. Congratulations. They beat the Chargers. Congratulations. And they had a come from behind win against the Dolphins on Monday night. Again, congratulations. So we're going with the Colts.

Second one. The Raiders are minus two at home against the Lions and there's some interesting stuff going on with this Raiders team according to DVOA they've played the third hardest schedule

in the league which I think kind of bears out where they beat Denver lost to KC, lost to Minnesota. They beat Indy in Indy, which we just mentioned. They beat Chicago in London by a week. They lose to Green Bay in a game that they were in that game and then kind of screwed it up. But I felt like that game was closer than 42-24.

And then last week against Houston, they had that game. They really did. I actually am not sure how they lost that game. Kyle and I were watching that game, and I don't know how they lost it. And then Watson makes the play where he gets cleated in the face and somehow makes the game winner. So three and four, the worst team they've played all year is Denver. And they're in this little run now where they're home for Detroit.

They're home for the Chargers, who might be falling apart completely. Then they're home for Cincy. And then they're at the Jets. I feel like all four of those games are winnable for them. It's conceivable that this team could be 7-4. I like what they're doing offensively. I think their problem defensively is they can't rush the passer. And then you look at the Lions.

The Lions had a chance to, you know, legitimately be a playoff team and just botched it. And now they're 3-3-1 in a tough conference. But their three wins are they beat the Giants. They won in Philadelphia and they beat the chargers by three. Um,

I feel like the Raiders can take care of business against the lions. What are your thoughts on that? Yeah, I like that a lot. The, um, most surprising, a top three surprising thing for me in this 2019 NFL season is the,

uh, rehabilitation and redemption of Derek Carr. Yet. Um, we made a lot of fun of John Gruden and he certainly deserves a lot of the, uh, uh, the,

the comic relief we've directed at him, but coming up with, and, and this is part of probably why it works. He's basically has an early 80s West Coast offense that he's recreated for Derek Carr. And they're crazy efficient because he throws the ball four yards down the field.

And they're able to keep teams honest because of how good Jacobs is. And he's right there for potential offensive rookie of the year with good reason. I mean, he is the real deal. So I got to give a little credit to Johnny G. And I just like the idea of the Raiders finally back home after five weeks on the road. Yeah. Going on a little run.

It starts with this week. I'm with you on this one. Yeah. I almost feel like this is like not just this week if we're going to ride them. I'm with you. I owe John Gruden an apology. I think he's been really good this year. I think he's completely rehabilitated Carr.

Carr has probably been the third best quarterback in the AFC, as amazing as that sounds. Can you believe that? Just because he's not out there costing them games. He's a game manager. He's like the ultimate game manager all of a sudden. Kyle, would you rather have Derek Carr or Tom Brady? Tom Brady, Tom Brady, Tom Brady.

Okay. Don't do that again. He's been in top five. All right, so I think Watson and Lamar Jackson are a bit better than him. Brady is just legacy-wise better than him. And Mahomes was better than him, but got hurt. So he's in kind of the four spot until Mahomes comes back.

But I don't know. Did you say Aaron Rodgers? I'm talking AFC. Oh, okay. And then Gruden, I think some of their plays are pretty good. I can't believe I'm backing on Gruden after

15 years. So the thing with them is their defense stinks. But I had a lot of that Lions-Giants game on last week. The Lions have no running backs. Like when I say, can you name the Lions running backs? I'll just give you their last names.

Carson, Johnson, Perkins, McKissick. That's who they had going last week when they had 25 carries for 59 yards against the New York Giants. Every one of them, their first name is Bill. Yeah. Bill McKissick. Bill. So Ra, their first name is Bill. Yeah. Bill McKissick. Bill.

So Raiders, not a great defense, but I'm not sure it can matter as long as they can just keep Stafford from throwing for 400 yards. Next one I want to mention, I don't know if I want to do anything with this. It's Jacksonville plus one against Houston in London. I actually like the way Jacksonville played last week. And I think, you know, they're playing the Jets, obviously. But I think Minshew has a little something-something. In their defense the last couple weeks,

they've been going against Cincinnati and the Jets, obviously. But the week before they went against the Saints, they only gave up 13 points. They seem like they're hitting their stride a little bit. I just, Houston, Watt's out now. Houston's kind of past the point here where they have too many injuries. Then on top of that, you're flying to London.

At the London game, one of the two teams always sucks, right? One team just didn't even get on the plane and they're just playing in the game as zombies. And, uh, in Jacksonville goes there every year and has like a feel for what it's like there. Um,

so talk me out of this. Cause I don't really totally want to take Jacksonville. I'm not going to talk you out of it. The, the, the reason to be concerned the reason for caution is just one man his name is Deshaun and uh you know he he has been the one man savior for this Houston team every single win they have this season all of their competitive

play boils down to him now it is true JJ Watt was having a pretty damn good season. He was being double-teamed more than any other lineman, I think, in all of football. And so with that double-team not on the table any longer, plus the Jaguars, I think, have demonstrated that they have a pretty excellent defense. Plus, for whatever reason, how are the Jaguars the London team? How did that happen?

Was that by design? Yeah, the owner has some London ties. He played it smart. Listen to this on the Jags. DVOA, 11th offense, 14th defense, 10th special teams. They're 11th overall. Houston's 13th. I honestly think Deshaun,

the fear of just going against Deshaun swung this line like six points. I mean, that sounds right. I feel like Jacksonville should be favored by three in this game. You know that I like gravitating toward points. I just want to mention quickly, your boys, the Redskins,

they've scored 36 points total in the last five games. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been 17 or under in four of their last seven. Their offense looked horrible. Washington's 29th in DVOA. Buffalo's 25th in DVOA. Buffalo seems like just a complete fraud. I thought they were going to win last week against the Eagles. They had the lead, and they were just awful. It was one of those things, by the third quarter, you're going, God, what was I thinking? This team's

terrible. They're 5-2. They played the worst schedule in the league, and they're laying 10. It feels like the Skins can keep this close. I don't know if I want to bet on it, but I'm not sure there's a difference between those two teams.

I can't speak rationally about the dumb dead skins. I will say they did cover last week. I think their defense isn't awful. Yeah, I agree. The defense isn't awful. That's the compliment I'm willing to give. The defense isn't awful. A season with compliment I'm willing to give. The defense isn't awful. A season with the Washington Redskins.

Last one. The Patriots are minus three in Baltimore. We haven't bet a lot on the Pats this year. In fact, I don't think we've bet on them more than once. I'll give you the case for the Pats. Not sure if Baltimore isn't the good-bad team. I know they had the win in Seattle. We were impressed.

Classy win. Classy win. Great win. Good job by them. They've played two really good teams because Seattle had a lot of trouble putting away Atlanta last week Seattle might just not be that good they lost to

that's my view they lost to Kansas City and Cleveland in back-to-back weeks they gave up 40 points to Freddy Soup Kitchens it took them overtime to beat Pittsburgh and whoever the fuck their quarterback was what was that guy's name?

Duck Duck Codges they beat Cincy by they beat Cincy by 6 Cincy's like trying to go 0-16

yeah they barely beat them and then they had an impressive Seattle win my thing with them is this Belichick 20 years of the guy at this point he loves nothing more than a team that an impressive Seattle win. My thing with them is this. Belichick, I've had 20 years with the guy at this point. He loves nothing more

than a team that says, we're doing this. And Baltimore is a team that goes, we're doing this. And Belichick is a coach that says, no, actually,

you're not going to do that. You're going to have to do something else. We're going to take this away. And I wonder, can Baltimore do that. You're going to have to do something else. We're going to take this away. And I wonder, can Baltimore do that? If they can only do this, does that make sense?

I do. I, I, it does make sense. I understand exactly what you're saying. And the answer to that proposition could be Lamar. Lamar might be a pivot guy. This is,

this is the, uh, you know, some of the analysis after the Jets game where the the the relentless confusion that the Patriots are able to muster because of Belichick's, you know, acute understanding of what a young quarterback might be thinking in terms of the defensive fronts that he's observing that will be the challenge for Lamar will Lamar be seeing ghosts now he has the physical ability to perhaps run away from those ghosts so that's really what we're talking about that the problem I have with the Pats the reason to tap the brakes with the Pats, is that offensive line. Isaiah Wynn still out.

Shaq Mason might be gone again. Not a great offensive line. Mohamed Sanu. And is he immediately 1A in terms of receiver talent to Julian Edelman? You need a little bit of a threat, another sort of possession receiver that might be able to stretch things a bit. I mean, I don't think Mohamed Sanu

is not stretching the field any longer. Excuse me. It's Mohamed Sanu Sr. Calm by his name. The man has earned the right to put Sr. on his jersey. I left out one other team. The Giants are playing home

on Monday night against Dallas and the line is seven. I think the Giants are awful. I think their defense is awful. I think Danny Dimes is getting the shit kicked out of them. And I think Dallas is a team that just beats, you know, they've already had their game

where they fell asleep against a shitty New York team. Is that, they're going to really honestly lose to both New York teams? So parlay that with basically anybody and it's plus 147. If you do the Dallas money line with whatever. So you do Dallas money line plus Pats minus three. Both have to win.

It's plus 147. What do you think of that? That's pretty good. I like that. I like getting that kind of return on the investment. All right. So let's do this. We're going big on our Colts.

We're going to go 700K on the Colts this week. Minus one at Pittsburgh. Yeah. Yeah. You know why? Out of respect. That's why. I love it.

I love it. It's a respect and it's a thank you for a wonderful two months. I love Jacoby Brissett as much as I love a Patriot. Kyle and I are already emotionally coming to grips with Jacoby going against the Pats in the AFC title game, how we're going to feel about it. Kyle's already going through the gamut of emotions when we play Jimmy G in the Super Bowl. You know, those three quarterbacks are like 20 and two altogether. Yeah. We love all those guys. Those are our guys when we beat Jacoby in the AFC title game long

hug for that guy really appreciate and respect how he's carried the Patriots tradition over in Indianapolis 700k on Indy and then I am going to do 250k each. Pats minus three with Dallas Moneyline plus 147.

And then Raiders minus two with Dallas Moneyline plus 147. So if we win both of those, we win almost like about $745K. And then the Colts will be $700K, and we could be at almost $1.5 million for this week. Yeah, I like it when we prepare a menu that just has three blockbuster items on it. Like, why are we fucking around with the tapas?

Why are we having all these plates? It's all entrees this week. Yeah. We're having meat. we're having meat this week also are we really gonna lose a million dollar pickster in the same week your team won the world series your team won the fucking world series i mean i don't know what to do with myself i really don't i'm so exhausted you you know i don't i hate to do the old guy radio thing but like you understand it's been at one in the morning or later every night for seven of the past eight nights do you know like at our at our advanced age Bill Simmons how that how that feels tense but tense not just like half asleep on the couch like no life experience nervous

well this is the thing it's the reason that it's past 1 a.m it's not that the games go that late although the games go to mother effing late like seriously baseball yeah would you like kids to to to participate in your product um it's it's the point you're making, which is even if the game ends at midnight, I'm so wired, there's no way I'm going to sleep. I have to watch at least two sports centers to calm the F down. I have to watch Neil Everett just to get myself, you know, back to equilibrium.

But, you know, the... I think you have some people to thank. We'll start with Bryce Harper for leaving and activating the Ewing theory. The best Ewing theory in a while. It's always nice when the Ewing theory comes back hard and strong. I think you should thank A.J. Hinch

for not having Cole up at all and then just abruptly realizing Granke needed to come out. And I just assumed it was going to be Granke for five or six innings and then Cole the rest of the way. And that was it.

And you were going to have to go through those two guys to win the World Series. Cole doesn't pitch. Never see him. No sign of Cole. So I'm in the bullpen a couple of times. Yeah. He warmed him up twice.

He wanted him for a clean inning. He didn't want to have him come in in the middle of an inning. Why? Insane. Why don't you explain that to me? How about this? Tell me why. You're a Washington Nationals fan. Who did you not want to come in for Granke? Give me a name. What was your list?

Who was your number one pitcher you didn't want to see? It's a one-name list. It's Cole. It's Gary Cole. I don't want to see Gary Cole. He's a murderer. He's an ex-murderer. Unbelievable. I couldn't believe,

I just couldn't believe it. I didn't think Howie Kendrick was going to hit a homer, but especially after the Dodger game, he was one of those, I think every World Series team needs like a Howie Kendrick type guy where there's no rhyme or reason to it,

but when he's up, you feel weirdly confident. And you had to feel weirdly confident when he was up in that spot, right? You know, the answer is a 10,000% yes. And I felt even better that he hadn't done anything earlier in the game. There were some at-bats that were leverage-y kind of at-bats where he could have, you know, gotten a rally going or continued a rally, and he didn't do it. So he felt very, very, very due. The thing that I love, there are myriad things that I love about this Washington Nationals team,

but I especially love that it's the oldest team in baseball and the adage of getting some old old wizened vets, guys in their mid thirties, guys like Ryan Zimmerman, guys like Howie Kendrick, uh, as Drupal Cabrera still, you know, on whatever number team the nets are, those guys matter. Adam Eaton, isn't a young guy having the old guys around. That's helpful. Those guys have been through some stuff. They can respond to that level of pressure, and they create a safe space for the kids, for Robles and Soto,

to just go out there and play like they don't give a fuck, and they absolutely played that way throughout the entire playoffs. It set the table for them to, and this is Tom Boswell, they pulled off the greatest postseason upset run in the history of baseball. And the evidence is manifest. You go start with Milwaukee, they win an elimination game there, they win game five against the Dodgers. And then, you know, the Cardinals weren't competitive, but this game seven against Houston, all the elimination games that the Nats faced and all of the comebacks that they had

were the seventh inning or later, a kind of maturity, an institutional maturity, a confidence bred by a group of guys who were all acted like they'd been there before. It was just like such a remarkable thing to see. I couldn't believe it. It's the best kind of baseball team. The, the, the bad-ass team that transcends the stats. And when you're down two of three, two, four, two, whatever, in the last three innings, you feel like you can come back.

I like those teams the most. The 2013 Red Sox was like that. If you go and look at the stats that they had in the playoffs, it makes no sense. You're like, how the fuck did this team win the World Series? And your team was like that too. Never had a team like that in my entire life.

The only analogy to this, I mean, the C the only analogy to, to this, I mean, the, the, the caps winning the Stanley cup was awesome. And they were just an undeniable force through those, the Stanley cup playoffs. But this Nats team with the characters and the identity,

they hearken back to the Redskins of the eighties. Yeah. Skins of the eighties. Those are Redskins. I'll call them by skins of the 80s those are redskins i'll call them by their proper name 1983 john riggins 1987 mark rippin like those teams are uh 87 was no 90 was ripping 91 was 91 87 was was doug williams Um, that like those teams had character, they had a camaraderie. You had the hogs from that era, Joe Theismann in, in, in 83, like those, those teams were all teams, um, that, that had not just, uh, you know, the, the, the talent, but they showed

something about themselves that made them lovable to the city. And that we, we we we this the city of washington loves these washington nationals yeah i wouldn't be surprised if 150 200 000 people it depends on the weather come out for the parade on saturday to show like that the baby shark thing steven strasburg getting hugged and rocked howie Kendrick and Adam Eaton getting in the dugout whenever one of them hits a home run and doing the race car thing you know a bunch of goofballs you had this with that Boston team from

2004 what were they what was their their stick what was the cowboy thing the idiot right yeah the idiot it's kind of what you need you also had you had the Strasburg thing I mean he's

was 5 was he 5-0 in the playoffs he was right he went 5-0 in the playoffs yes that was unprecedented that was unbelievable

and you think like Verlander I feel like it does kind of matter that Verlander's 0-6 the 0-6 stat for him it's like well it doesn't

wins and losses don't matter it's like well they matter a little because you know you know who wasn't losing in the world series strasburg he that dude was not losing uh yeah so rank the uh rank the nats right now who who are the biggest winners is it strasburg one no rendon's one because they're going to have to, they better go get the Brinks truck and it better have, but have 500 million in it. I mean, whatever the Manny Machado deal was,

he's, he's 20% more valuable than Manny Machado. I would say, I mean, maybe that's a little irrational right now. I'm not sure. I don't know if the stat heads would agree, but I,

I give him 400 million. Who cares what, what he wants? Give him every dollar. He's deserved it. Who's cooler than that guy? They showed on screen last night his at-bats from the seventh inning on in the most recent games, and it was so unbelievable. It's most like, is that right?

Is that correct? Are those the right stats? It was like double RBI, walk, you know, home run. Like a string of the most impactful plays at the most impactful moments. So Rendon's won. Well, hold on. I got a Rendon thing quick. Because you know I want to bring my Boston teams into this.

It was very Big Papi-esque. It really was. It was. Absolutely. It was eerily similar to what Papi was like in 04, where he just, like, when he came up in a big spot, he just felt like something great was going to happen. And then Soto, same thing.

Like, you know, when you think about his age and stuff, I felt like he was... I always thought he was going to come through. It was always, like, surprising when he didn't, know um well i'm glad you you mentioned poppy it was one of the great joys of watching these playoffs was after the games when soto and rendon uh played well poppy clearly took so much enjoyment in this washington team it felt like he was rooting for washington i just felt like he he was on my side the whole way through. Whatever affinity that might come

from the style of play or just the sheer chutzpah, all of the... What's the Spanish word for balls? Why am I... I haven't had enough coffee. I'm still drunk. Cajones. Papi loves cajones.

That's what the Nets had in spades we also left out the karma of the idiot Astros assistant GM Mallory's here hello

the karma of the idiot Astros GM and that whole thing that happened and I gotta say I believe in this stuff I really felt like

I was like I think the Astros are way better but the whole karma thing of this I do feel like it's gonna be a factor, you hate the Red Sox and Boston teams. Did this Nats team remind you of those big poppy Red Sox, kind of that weird thing that starts happening with teams like this? See, I'm just Boston center.

I guess I can see why you're making that comparison. You know, I hate DC sports teams. I know you do. Just on their own merits as a Baltimore fan, though I did find myself rooting for the Nats as this was unfolding. I really did. Yeah, I really did. I wanted them to win.

Is it because you love house? It's because I love house. That's the primary reason. The secondary reason is that my dad told me that my grandfather, who we lost a couple years ago, always loved Max Scherzer and rooted for him because he mistakenly thought he was Jewish, which I thought was hysterical and I had never known before. It was just so charming that it made my heart fill with joy every time Scherzer pitched, and I already love Scherzer. And then, as you just alluded to,

the Astros are an incredible baseball team, but the stories around that team, all of the stuff with Brandon Taubman, the assistant GM, and everything that happened there and has happened around that team the last couple years, it's just pretty hard to get behind them. We are going to take a quick break and then I have one question, then how she can go. Hold on. Hey, according to the FBI, burglary happens an average of once every 23 seconds in the US and yet one in five homes has home security. Maybe because most companies really don't make it easy. That's why SimpliSafe is my top choice. Hands down. They protect every door, window, and room with 24-7 professional monitoring for just $15 a month.

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if someone tries to get in, get your free HD security camera now at SimpliSafe.com slash BS. SimpliSafe with two I's. SimpliSafe.com slash BS. So, Mal. Yeah. House had his first World Series Game 7 last night. Okay. Congrats.

He ordered $120 of Chinese food. Was that for yourself, house? Oh my goodness. Well, it was, it was, I will say it this way. I ordered everything that I know that I would eat. And then it was available to my, to my family as well, which is really just my wife and my mother-in-law who's visiting with us. But I knew that they would just peck at a couple of things. So the, the, the, the correct answer, the true answer is yes. That was all for me.

And then were you eating during the game? Yes. Before, after, like, well, just eating constantly? Okay. Yes. So this is the greatest night of your life. This sounds like it might have been a top three night of your life. Well, I got married.

Yes, that was a top three night. It was top ten. You became a father. My son was born. Yeah. The day my son was born, that's top three. And then, you know. The Nationals' birth of championship. That's it. I mean then, you know. The Nationals' birth of championship. That's it.

I mean, there's only one first. So it's up there for sure. I give it a high mark. Can I do your top three? I think House Seats three is number one. Nats Camp seven is two. Sunbeam born three. I'll give the marriage four.

I'm trying to think what else. What about when you and I saw Sliver together in 1993? Is that top 10? That's top 10. House came to visit me in Brookline and we went to see Sliver with Sharon Stone, which was like an erotic thriller. But that was back then.

You just went to see whatever movie. Formative moment in your friendship. We were like, is this going to be weird? We're like, no, not at all. We just made jokes the whole time. Yeah. I mean, that was a different era. That was, I probably shouldn't say this, but like there was Sunday night mass at Holy Cross.

And then there was a group of us who had Sunday night porn at Holy Cross. Maybe that needs to get cut. Maybe it doesn't. Hold on. I have a few follow-up questions. Sunday night porn. I have a few follow-up questions. Sunday night porn. I have a few follow-up questions. We had Sunday night porn.

You remember this? Wow. I'm trying to remember. It did get RA kicked off campus. He got fired. What about Monday through Saturday? 15 men in a room. Were you abstaining Monday through Saturday?

No, but there was only one night of the week where everybody would come together into a single place to enjoy this. When you say everybody would come together. No, not literally come together. It was more male bonding. It was male bonding. We did it in an Irish Catholic campus

with 30 degree winds. You got to make the time go by. House, what's next for you? Now it's Daniel Snyder selling the Redskins. Is that your new number one sports dream? Wow. Well, here's the thing. I didn't dare to dream that this Washington Nationals team could win the World Series.

Daniel Snyder somehow losing control of the Deadskins. That's my next dare to dream. I'm there. We can figure this out when we're all together next week in Los Angeles though, right? Yeah, you're coming next week. House, congratulations. We'll see you next week. Mallory has an

extra long 24 second hug for you. I can't wait. Can't wait to see you. Enjoy the parade. I promise not to think about Sunday night porn during the hug. House. House. House. Don't forget.

Don't forget to buy as much World Series memorabilia as possible. Oh, I'm on it. I have every website open right now. A lot of them are sold out already. DC's going nuts for it. I'm getting everything. You got it. Thanks, buddy. Dress your son A lot of them are sold out already. DC's going nuts for it. I'm getting everything. You got it. Thanks, buddy. Dress your son like he's a mannequin in an online store. Just cover him

in Natscare. We're doing that for the parade. We're going to do it. All right. Thanks, guys. Bye, us. Bye. All right. Mallory missed last week because she was traveling back east. Indeed. I forget who I had in your place. Oh, I had David Chang. Wonderful. Frustrated Redskins fan. Tough, tough Frustrated Redskins fan.

Tough, tough day for the Redskins today. So you're going to do your most intriguing and let's just get it out of the way. There's a Lamar Jackson Harry Potter clip on YouTube that felt like it was made for you.

He's talking about the books. Well, he isn't talking about the books. That's part of the movies. So he dressed up as Harry Potter for Halloween. Incredible moment in my life. Are's part of the movies. So he dressed up as Harry Potter for Halloween. Incredible moment in my life. Are there photos of that?

If you watch one of the clips that the Ravens Twitter feed put out, there is a shot of Lamar dressed up in his Gryffindor finest in there. And it's very special. So I had a whole slew of emotional responses to this, dare I say, spiritual responses to this. You know, on the one hand, one of the four most important things that's ever happened to me. Lamar or Harry Potter? Or both? Or the combination? Them coming together. Lamar,

my favorite player. Harry Potter, my favorite story of all time. And hearing Lamar talk about Harry Potter was a real gift, a real gift to me. Then as you get a little deeper into the video, a reporter says, are you a Harry Potter fan? And he says, well, I wouldn't say that. So then that part hurts a little bit. It's still very charming. It's very sweet. He basically goes on to reveal that he falls asleep when he watches the movies because they're a little long. And I found myself thinking, could he get through binge mode if he thinks those movies are long? Probably not.

But I got to introduce it to him. I got to try. Maybe if he embraces the books, the source material, he'll fall in love with the story the way that so many of us have, Bill. It's a great moment. Well, you couldn't get me. So now Lamar is really next on the list.

Who says I couldn't get you? First of all, haven't given up on you and I never will. Ben Simmons got into it. Second of all, your son, your darling boy is now a Harry Potter fan. And that's the real way I've infiltrated your life. Right there. It's true. He has listened to the binge mode.

He loves Dobby. Yeah. And he loves Hagrid. This is his greatest day of the year. We're taping this on Halloween. He was almost born on Halloween. Your favorite day of the year. We're taping this on Halloween. He was almost born on Halloween. Your favorite day of the year too, right? Oh, absolutely.

We used to go to the Myers house over by Sunset there. He would dress up, put the mask on. What are you dressing up as tonight? I'm dressing up as a guy who's going to be handing out 1,500 pieces of candy tonight as my neighborhood descends on our house. Mallory's most intriguing. What do you got? Want to go back? Want to go five to one or one to five?

Let's go five to one and build up to what we both know is number one, which is Raven's Pats. Okay, let's do it. Number five. It's going to be our last chance for a while. I mean, maybe we'll get some award season talking. Maybe we'll get some free agency talking, but last chance for a while probably to talk about baseball.

World Series ended last night. Washington Nationals are world champions. I watched a lot of the World Series. I was really proud of myself. I watched a lot of baseball playoffs. The whole series or game seven?

No, I watched a lot of the World Series. I really, I enjoyed the Nats team and because of House, I was really rooting for him, but I actually really enjoyed a lot of the Nats

and I didn't want the Astros to win after the thing. Yeah. Not to sound like overwoke dude, but I was just like, fuck that franchise. So it gave me a villain. I think a lot of people felt that way. So what's the future for the Nats? That's what I thought would be kind of fun to talk about today. Well, Rendon's going to make a ton of money, right? Well, he's, you know, he, I mean, those two teams with Rendon and Rendon and Strasburg, if he chooses to opt out, which I assume he will,

given the finances of the next few years of his deal. And then, obviously, Garrett Cole on the Astros. The crown jewels of this free agency class were all playing in this World Series, as Ben Lindbergh wrote about for the Ringer heading into the World Series. And then, you know, today we had a piece from Michael Bauman about what the future of this Nats team is and how, on the one hand, it seems, you know, they have all of these great young stars. You look at, obviously, Soto, chief among them, Robles, even a guy like Adam Eaton. Scherzer's still signed.

Corbin has the big deal, et cetera, et cetera. But then if you look at Rendon may be leaving, Strasburg may be leaving. The fact that it was one of the oldest teams in the league this year. Was this actually the end of the window instead of the beginning of it? Kind of interesting to think about. And they've been able to sustain a remarkable degree of success, you know, finishing first or second in the division since 2012, consistently competitive and in it.

The franchise still has this reputation as kind of being a joke because of how they played for the first few years after relocating from Montreal, but they've been consistently competitive and the learners have really been, and this is a piece that Zach Cram wrote for us today, really been emblematic of how to spend not only forcefully, but sustainably. You know, it's not always just about making the splash. Again, of course, one of the false narratives that's set in around the team is, well, they let Harper go,

but then they reallocated that money. They spent elsewhere. It wasn't just a save. They tried to pay him too. He didn't take it. Well, they gave him a pretty hefty offer at one point. 300 mil, but a lot of it was in the deferred money, which has worked for them in other deals.

300 mil for that guy? He wasn't even a proven commodity, I don't feel like. Bryce Harper wasn't a proven commodity? I don't feel like he was a proven commodity. MVP Bryce Harper? You hate Mike Trout. No, but it's just like he wasn't, he was coming off like not the greatest year.

There's no greater insult from you than you saying he wasn't as good as Mike Trout, who you consistently shit on. I said he wasn't as consistently reliable as Mike Trout. Do you feel like he was? No, of course not. No. I don't think he was a sure thing for $300 million.

It seemed like a lot of money. Well, I think it's all about what the finances of the game are at a given moment in time. And that's, of course, the comp for what Anthony Rendon might be getting. It's the Harper deal. It's the Machado deal. It's the Arenado deal. Yeah, but it goes deeper than that because what House

just talked about on the pod, which you heard the tail end, but like this Nats team is like the most popular team they've had in D.C. in 30 years. Can they make that mistake again? And Rendon is like the big poppy. Like they can't lose him. He made himself an extra hundred million probably.

It would be... He's not walking away from that. Well, he'll... It would be unusual's not walking away from that well he'll it would be unusual he'll walk to wherever the best deal is and I say that with nothing but respect

for that decision the question is will they be able to be the team that's offering it to him I think that they've shown I would hope so I would hope so too can't they jack tickets up next year

they're going to anyway it's it'll ride the popularity of the team well so much of the money in baseball comes from the rev sharing. I mean, the Nationals and Orioles obviously have a very complicated and specific rev share arrangement. But the regional sports networks, the money coming in from that.

Every team in baseball can spend. You know this better than anyone. This is one of the things about the Red Sox right now, right? If they choose not to spend, if they choose to get rid of Mookie or maybe J.D. Martinez or do any number of other cost-saving moves, it's strictly because they want to, not because they have to. And we've seen this with the big spenders in baseball in recent years. These teams can go over the tax. They choose not to. Do you want to be on my five-hour, I can't believe they fucked up this Mookie Betts thing podcast? Oh, yeah. You want to be booked? What hour do you want to be in when I'm like the most awake and angry or like hour four

or five when I'm tired and throwing bombs? I want you when you're on the backswing. Okay. You've punched your way through the fatigue. And you've like all restraints off. Yeah. Reckless. That's what's going to happen.

That's when I want to come in. That's when I want to come in. When you're managing the podcast the same way that the Red Sox are managing the roster. Oh my God. We'll save that for another time. The Rendon, I think he stays. I think so too. I hope so. I think Strasburg

is going to be really interesting. Really interesting. He's definitely opting out. He's definitely getting a lot of money from somebody. But it doesn't seem like the Yankees have been pretty clear that they're not going to spend a ton of money on a starter. And it seems like the fucking Angels yet again. Yeah. The Angels one more time.

The franchise that just cannot seem to entice anybody to think they're interesting ever. Well, Garrett Cole is an interesting one with any West Coast team because he's a West Coast guy. And I think there's a real belief that he maybe wants to be on the West Coast. That said, the team other than the Yankees that he's been most heavily linked to is the Phillies. You know, the Phillies are not afraid to spend.

They need another frontline pitcher. They could go after not only Cole, but they could go after Strasburg too. Well, I want Cole to leave the Astros. I think that really... I think that what we saw last night indicates that that's pretty much a lock. That really helps the American League. He wore a Boris Corp hat after the game and said that he was no longer an employee of the team and would speak as a representative of himself.

I don't get the vibe that he's going to resign there. Let's do 40 seconds on this because I already gave my take to House. I was stunned that their entire game plan wasn't cranky for five, six, however, whatever innings. And then Cole comes in and he pitches the rest. Nonsense. What was the baseball nerd community on that one? Just complete disbelief? Yeah. Yes, I think so. And not only in a vacuum just assessing the decisions within game seven and how the series was unfolding but but through the aj hinch lens and in particular because he is a really forward-thinking advanced analytically inclined manager who usually makes the right decision he usually makes the decision that leads to the piece like this is what other

managers should be modeling their behavior not not their behavior, but their game tactics off of. And, you know, Bauman wrote a piece on this for us last night, right after the game, you could find your way into rationalizing the Granke Harris thing. You could. Just because it was fast.

Because Granke went from, he's in the inning to all of a sudden, whether he asked out or Hinch saw something he didn't like. Yeah, I mean, the thing is, I personally don't feel that it was a defensible decision. I just... I don't either. I don't know how the baseball community

felt about it. You know, Greinke's sitting around 80 pitches there and had looked basically unhittable until giving up one run and a walk. It seemed panicky. It's just, I don't get it. And also Harris had pitched a lot.

Well, that's the other thing. I didn't like that part of it. If the logic for pulling Granke is like a third time through the order exposure argument or a fatigue argument, then both of those things apply to Harris too. So I didn't get that at all. But not going to Cole is just indefensible to me. He's been the best pitcher in baseball. Is he going to be famously indefensible?

I think there's a chance. Yeah. Especially because Hinch said that he was planning to use him if they were winning. This is one of the things. I just can't believe they didn't go Granke Cole. I just assumed that was... Once they're up 2-0, I was watching going,

the Nats always come back. But man, this one is like... Yeah, they have no path to a comeback. This is like brutal. It was setting up perfectly for the Astros. Perfectly to be able to use their absolute best player. And the best, again, the best pitcher in baseball this season. And it didn't happen.

Like, there's no game eight. Did you get Zach Britton flashbacks to the one-game You know, I don't know what you're waiting for. Did you get Zach Britton flashbacks to the one game playoff? I'm still not ready to talk about that. That's when Buckshaw Walter lost me forever, as you know. I'll never be able to talk about that. I hope Buck knows. Let's take a quick break.

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Offer code BS. Number four. Yeah. Kind of a bad NFL slate. Sometimes these NFL slates end up being fun, the ones that you don't expect, like that don't have a lot of high-profile matchups, but there weren't a ton that jumped out to me this week.

So of the five, only three of our items this week are football, but here's one of them. Vikings at Chiefs. Two teams that at this moment in the season, those dog days in the middle of the NFL season, are at this fascinating point where their trajectories are going in completely opposite directions. They happen to be meeting in the middle of that.

And I like moments like that where you can look at where a path is going and when it crosses somebody else heading in the opposite direction. So on the one side, Minnesota, the first couple weeks of the season, the Vikings were one of the primary punching bags, looking like they were heading for a lost season, like the Cousins contract was going to be held up as one of the all-time debacles in football history.

Yeah. He's just named NFC Offensive Player of the Month and has somehow turned himself into a stealth MVP candidate in his last few games. He was wide receiver trade demand fodder a month ago. And now he's, oh, if they weren't in the Packers division, they'd be in the running for potentially a top seed in the playoffs. It's been shocking to watch him hit guys 40 yards down the field in stride like he's Kurt Warner in 1999.

The accuracy. It just flipped. The completion percentage, the confidence that he's throwing with. And when you now go back and reassess things like Thielen's comment, but that's another thing heading into this game

is it sounds like Thielen's hamstring is healthy, so get the whole offense out there. Thielen's saying basically earlier in the season, well, we just got to be able to throw the ball at some point. How much of it was that Cousins wasn't playing well and how much of it was that the offense just was not, was not, not just not clicking, but was not operating,

was not functioning. And now that it is, we can see what all of these players are capable of doing together. On the other side, you have the Chiefs who looked, other than the Patriots, like the best team, you have the Chiefs who looked, other than the Patriots, like the best team in football for the first few weeks of the season

and have now lost three of their last four. Obviously, Pat Mahomes is injured, had the ankle injuries earlier in the year, dislocated kneecap now. I look at it not from the Chiefs

are in trouble perspective, but kind of the opposite. The Chiefs are in a shitty division and they're fine. And it's just about whether they have the patience not to panic and rush Mahomes back and really ruin everything. We don't even have six playoff teams. They're fine.

I loved when you and Sal did the, can you find six playoff teams? They're fine. They're completely fine. Minnesota's the one that can't fuck around every week. Exactly. It might take 11 wins in the NFC. Totally. It's conceivable.

But do Andy Reid and the Chiefs have that clarity? Because even last week, heading into the Packers game, the best example of a just like concede defeat and be smart and patient here heading into it scenario that you could imagine, there were still all these reports until the final minute, basically, that Mahomes might play.

This week, he's practicing. Now, he's a limited participant, but he's practicing. Why? Who is this for? Who is this for? What is this for? Just sit him and let him get completely healthy. You're going to win the division

and make the playoffs. Bring him back healthy at full strength, not as a hobbled mess because you rushed him. Like, I don't want to go full Durant comp here, but it feels like it's,

there's a risk if things go a certain way that it could have that kind of potential. And I just really hope that they're wise here. It's a good point. And I also I still like their team. I feel like they could beat Minnesota with that more. Well, I mean, if anybody... They have so many

skill guys. Like Byron Pringle didn't even play last week and he that dude would be playing for the Patriots. I like their receivers. Anybody in an Andy Reid offense can produce. Anybody. I mean, Matt Moore looks completely serviceable. There's no reason that he can't continue to.

Kevin Clark on that Ringer NFL show a few weeks ago, this was before the Mahomes kneecap dislocation. This was when he was dealing with the ankle. Kevin, before the kneecap set, just sit him. Let him heal. And then subsequent to that, Mahomes got badly hurt. So this has been building this kind of conversation. But...

Andy seems like he's not really holding the steering wheel that well this season. It's a general sense of watching their games. I'm not watching that team this year going, you know, because sometimes, regardless of what he does in the playoffs in the regular season, he'll have the one shitty game every year.

For the most part, that's a team that's usually a little ahead of everybody else. I'm not seeing that this year from them. Even the Baltimore game, I felt like he could have beaten them. Oh, I mean, yeah. The Ravens. Tarbaugh definitely

outcoached him in that game. That was the Ravens are the analytical team we've been waiting for a game, you know? The thing, the charitable read here with Reed and the Mahomes situation would be it's in essence a version of gamesmanship where you want to keep the defense guessing every week that he actually has no intention of

playing Mahomes and knows he needs to wait for him to be healthy, but he just wants to have the Vikings to force them to prepare for two different quarterback scenarios, which, okay, fine. But hopefully that's what it is. I fully support that. What's number three? Number three.

Where will... I'm a little nervous to see how Kyle responds to this. I'm sorry in advance. Take a deep breath. Where will Josh Gordon land now that he's no longer a patriot? Reportedly, officially today, released on waivers. He had been on IR, the knee. Where's he going to go?

Where's he going to land? He feels Cowboys-ish. Cowboys are interesting. I would throw out... Eagles? Eagles. Because I don't like the Eagles receivers at all. Seahawks?

Oh, I think Metcalf's good. Kyle was on him from day one. Metcalf, I love. Metcalf, I love. A defensive end playing wide receiver who only runs go routes is basically my favorite thing in the world. He's a handful. He really is a problem. He's a handful. He really is a problem.

He's a monster. And around the end zone, I think he's, you know, I didn't think they were going to be able to push Baldwin, but I would vote the Eagles for Josh. The problem with Josh is that and this is what I was worried about last year. We grew to love him. But we said this last year. He tantalizes you.

It's almost better not to have him than to have him. Because when you have him, it's like, oh man, this guy. And then your mind starts racing to the best possible scenario of it. And the bottom line is he just cannot stay consistent. He's got a lot of time issues and getting to meetings. And he's just not a professional time issues and getting to meetings and he's just not a professional. I, unfortunately, I'm really rooting for him. I think a lot of people are. He, Schefter had a quote from him today or he said he quote, he's hoping to land

in a good supportive situation, you know, given all of his, all of his addiction issues over the years. I don't think it's just addiction issues, though. I think he's just not professional. I think he just doesn't show up for meetings. Well, I think that those things are linked in that he's had a lot of struggles in his life and hopefully he can end up with a team that is willing to give him a chance and that has the kind of culture

where he is nurtured and supported. He was in that team. He was in that situation, though. I think at some point, if you just can't follow the basic rules I think he was in that team. He was in that situation, though. I think at some point, if you just can't follow the basic rules of being on a 53-man football team, which he obviously couldn't in New England because they really needed him

and they let him go anyway, it's just not going to happen. They needed him, but also then you get to the point, that's what feels kind of gross about this, is that you get to the point where it's, oh, the Belichick, well, we can't carry 10 receivers,

you know, trading for Sanu. Yeah, but they traded for Sanu because of Gordon. Harry's coming off IR, right? He's healing.

Who knows? We're relying on him. I mean, it's a high draft pick. They're going to want to get him on the field. I think when you have a football team,

everybody's going to be on the same page. And it's, there's always been that military aspect to football, right? Where it's like, we're all aligned. The rules are the same for everybody, all that stuff. And when somebody can't fall in line like that,

somebody like Belichick looks at that and goes, got to cut the cord. It's just not healthy for our culture to have this one person that we are constantly having to chase. I understand institutionally in the NFL why that is somewhere between difficult and impossible. I get that. I just think that Josh Gordon is such an incomparable talent that I'm still not ready to give up on the dream of seeing him seeing him put it all together one more time i just think it would be a really wonderful story i'm rooting for him

and i hope he lands somewhere where he gets one more chance maybe maybe though maybe the niners would be another team you know they've obviously acquired a couple pass catchers but i still think that i still think that they could be they could be a pairing there's some Oakland grumblings I'm not sure how I feel about that I hope that doesn't happen I think Philly Eagles Seahawks are

Philly's his best chance yeah because I think he'd actually play for them I think they need somebody like him and the one thing with him I'm not 100% sure he's healthy because I thought he hurt his knee a few weeks ago

Kyle any last words for Flash? I hope an ex-pat throws you touchdown passes many more. He'd love Flash. There's a little twinkle in Kyle's eye right now. He's going to be okay.

A little glint. I think the thing with him is you can get a nice three-week stint out of him. I don't think you can get three months out of him. You might be right.

Who's number two? Number two. Go on pop culture here for a second. Thrones? His Dark Materials. Oh. It's time. At long last, we've arrived at one of the most important moments in my life, which is the arrival of the His Dark Materials television adaptation. I'll make this quick, but the show premieres on Monday night, November 4th, which I think is actually really interesting from an HBO scheduling perspective, stretching into Monday nights.

They did that with The Deuce too. And now we're in this moment where, and Casey Blades has said His Dark Materials, even though it's fantasy, is not the next Game of Thrones. It's not an attempt to replace Thrones nothing can replace Thrones fine

we have Watchmen on Sunday nights and we're going to have his dark material on Mondays that's a fun fantastical Sunday Monday this is what HBO programming is at this section time

a moment in time window his dark materials for anyone who is not aware is a fantasy trilogy from Philip Pullman. One of my all-time favorite stories, like top five all-time, just truly remarkable books. Golden Compass, called The Northern Lights Overseas, it's the first book. That's what the first season of this show is. The Subtle Knife is the second book. Amber Spyglass is the third.

There are a few novellas, and now there's a second trilogy in the works, The Book of Dust, currently being written. Book two just dropped this month. There was an attempt at adapting it. A famously failed adaptation in the era of IP. There's nothing more valuable in culture than a franchise you can keep building on. A YA story you can turn into a movie or a show. And so the Golden Compass movie, the Daniel Craig, Nicole Kidman movie in 07, Failing, was a real outlier. I forgot about that. Yeah.

So that's what this is. That was a real outlier. And so I'm fascinated from that perspective, too. Can they get it right the second time around? They have a lot of star power behind it. Lin-Manuel Miranda is in it. James McAvoy is in it. Is that a good behind it. Lin-Manuel Miranda is in it. James McAvoy is in it.

Is that a good thing? That Lin-Manuel Miranda is in it? Well, it's, that's a matter of personal taste, I guess. Lin-Manuel Miranda. Are we sure he's good? Your girl, I find him delightful.

He's great. Hamilton was awesome. Point me to something else. Maybe I'll be able to point you to this on Monday. We'll see. Your girl, Ruth Wilson, aka Allison from The Affair, she plays the villain in this?

Miss Coulter? I spent three years with her already. Get ready to spend three more, bud. It's... I don't want to say too much and spoil anything. This is not a good sell job. Listen. Lin-Manuel Miranda and Ruth Wilson. It's not really about them, though.

Anybody else in it? It's not really about the adults. It's about the kids. The protagonist is a 12-year-old girl named Lyra. And I'm hesitant to say too much because I don't want to spoil anything. This sounds terrible. No, it's wonderful.

I just got rid of a 12-year-old girl who's now 14. I don't want to have another 12-year-old girl. It's wonderful. It's about, it's a coming of age story. It's about awakenings. No, I'm going through this in real life. It's one of those brilliant things where a fantasy story can unlock something about your own life because you say, okay, this is my experience,

my world, but just you change it by a matter of degree. And Philip Pullman does this quite literally because it is not our world. It's taking place when it starts in Oxford. But you start to notice things are different. And one of the main differences is that people have, every person has something called a demon. It's spelled like Damon, but it's demon. It is an animal that is the manifestation of your soul. And when you're young, it's constantly changing. If you're in a bad mood, it takes a new form. And then it sets basically at the moment of your coming of age,

your sexual awakening, among other things. Oh. There's the themes in it your demon would remain unfixed for all of time there's a substance mysterious substance called dust there are questions of consciousness it is it has been uh attacked as an anti-religious story i would contend that that is a a redu misunderstanding and that it is not anti-religion. It is anti-institutional control and conformity and that it is, in fact, quite a spiritual story. It's about love and connection. All right, whatever. I'm not watching it. Next. What's number one? Oh, my God.

Ruth Wilson and Lin-Manuel Miranda. The books are great. All right, I'll watch one. I'll watch one as my wife. This sounds like my wife will love the show. I'll sit next to her on the couch and look at my phone the whole time. And then I'll tell you what I think after.

I should just be clear. I don't know if the show is good. I'm saying I hope it is because the books are so important to me and to so many people. They're really beautiful. Would you rather the show be awful so you could stop watching it?

No. Or mediocre? Oh, no. The worst case scenario is mediocre, right? No, because if it's mediocre, they're already filming the second season. I need it to go long enough that I can see Will Perry, my favorite character in the story,

and he comes in in the second season, the second book. He's the bearer of the subtle knife. Not sure if you remember, but a few weeks ago on this podcast, I brought up the subtle knife when talking about Pat Mahomes. I remember that. I didn't know what you're talking about. Well, I think the guy who runs HBO says this show's good and he doesn't lie. It's such a special story.

It's such a special story. Speaking of special stories, Raven's Pats. I've already made the Pats a million dollar pick. Pats minus three. Okay. I think Belichick picks Lamar, picks all the tapes, looks at it, figures it out, figures what out, throws some things at him.

What's he throw at him? Lamar's a young guy. He's a young, talented, awesome QB that I love having on my fantasy teams. This is a big stage and there's going to be

some curveballs throwing at him in this game and I'll be interested to see how he handles them. Here are the quarterbacks the Patriots have played this year. Oh, I love this stat. Ben Roethlisberger.

Like, it's their fault. It's not their fault. It's also not Lamar Jackson's fault. Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Colt McCoy, Danny Dimes, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield. Isn't that great? Colt McCoy was on a Madden cover, wasn't he? Ruined at least three of those guys.

I will say this because I read a lot of Patriots defense pieces this week. A lot of people wrote them including who wrote it at the ringer? Somebody wrote something about it at the ringer. We've had a few Patriots defense pieces here. We've had pieces on their fantasy defense

being the top scorer. Yeah, but listen. We've had pieces on their actual defense. I've read all of them. Here's what people are missing. Because I've seen all these variations and some people picking it apart, other people trying to explain it

in seven different ways. Their secondary is fucking awesome. That's why their defense is good. Right. They're good on the other parts of the ball and it's nice to have Collins back. I get it. They're athletic.

But their secondary is awesome. They have the best secondary. And I think in the NFL these days, if you can just put six defensive backs on the field at all times, or five, or four, whatever it takes, and all those guys are good, it's the biggest advantage you can have. I will say I'm nervous. You know, I don't want to front too much. I am excited about the game. I'm excited to see how Lamar and the team rise to this test and this challenge. It's, of course, daunting and scary. I think that what you just cited about the secondary, you know, the way that the Patriots defense has generated takeaways turnovers is particularly notable and the combination of

the play in the secondary and the ability to generate a pass rush can disrupt a lot now marquise brown is practicing i think whether hollywood is healthy enough to go and be effective in this game is a huge huge question i don't think your receivers are good enough. That's why I raised his health. I think it's a huge mismatch. Having just the sheer number of bodies and options to not have to rely fully on the tight ends is going to be really important.

But here's how you win. You pound the ball. You control it. You run the ball right at us and then defensively our offensive line is not very good and that's how you win the game is with defense and then keep the ball on offense and then on defense you have to attack Brady

we're very much on the same page I just don't know if you can do it Marcus Peters is on the team now Marlon Humphrey playing well. Jimmy Smith, crucially, practicing. Get the defensive backfield healthy. Give yourself the flexibility to attack on defense.

You have to attack Brady. To mess up Brady's timing. Essential. Then, on offense, if Lamar Jackson can't have a successful day throwing the ball in this game, the thing about Lamar Jackson is that that might not matter

because he can run. He's the best runner in football right now. And if- But that's going to be the thing the Pats take away though. If they can, if he can, but he, there's not a way so far to take that away.

It's, you can, he can take away Ingram. He can take away Gus Edwards. Bill Belichick, are you listening to this, Matt, or are you just challenging? No, no, no. I have in my notes... Did you hear that, Kyle? I have in my notes, how will Belichick scheme for Lamar? Belichick always has a way to figure it out.

I have that in my notes. He's not going to let Lamar run. He'll give them anything else. He's not giving him that. The offense, the key to the offense is that you have the option. And so I'm excited to see. It's a huge test. Here's what I'll say. Here's what I'll say.

On the one hand, I don't like how many people seem to be picking the Ravens. I don't want that. I want to just fly slightly under the radar. God, how many times have we been here, Kyle? Yet another night game. People don't think we can win this is the best here's what I'll say thanks America here's what I'll say I think that

and I don't want to jinx things because again I'm nervous I'm hesitant to say this out loud and have it come back to bite me in the ass I think it's a bit of a narrative proof game for the Ravens and I feel good about that here's what I mean. If they lose, and if Lamar Jackson has a bad game,

and if Belichick does stop his ability to run and does shut down the pass, and they can't move the ball on offense, and Brady shreds them, then guess what? It's Tom Brady and it's the Patriots. That's what everyone expected, right? Well, it turns out they were great. Much like when they didn't have the best game against the Chiefs.

It was they're not quite ready, but nobody's giving up on them. It'll just be that again, except to a further degree because it's the Patriots and Brady and Belichick. I don't really see an outcome here, barring something astonishingly disappointing where everybody writes off the Ravens after the scheme. However, if coming off a bye and the win on the road against the Seahawks before the bye

with players healing, an injection of health into the roster. Don't forget the Harbaugh-Belichick history. Harbaugh-Belichick. Lamar coming off his Hogwarts-y in Halloween. If everything's going right, he's feeling the magic and they win, then you start to get this is a team of the season kind of stuff going on. Oh, I love that you're walking down this road.

I can't believe I'm allowing myself to do it. I'm like De Niro in Goodfellas. Yeah, keep going. A little bit further to the right. No, no, it's right there. I'm so all in already. I'm starting to worry about myself. I'm starting to worry about my safety and my health and happiness. Can I tell you how you're actually going to win this game?

Pass rush. Lamar doesn't make mistakes. And your special teams is better than our special teams this year, which is atypical for the Pets. Definitely feels like a game. Our special teams is not good. And we have rookie punter who has been good so far,

but this is the biggest game he's punted in so far. And then another new field goal kicker. I don't trust Gunner at all. Do you trust Gunner? No. He dropped it once. That was enough. Yeah, I still don't trust him. And the Ravens, I think, have the number one special teams in DVOA plus Tucker.

It feels like a game where if they win, you're going to actually see as many Justin Tucker highlights as anything else at the end of it. I feel really good having Justin Tucker heading into this game. Really good. And you have to, for that first hour of Brady, when his passes are sailing all over the place, you got to take advantage of one of those.

Got to get a pick early. Got to. You'll lose by 10, but it'll be noble. Mallory, as always, a pleasure to have you on. And don't forget, Binge Mode Star Wars.

How many episodes are we up to? Six? It's in motion. Episode six drops tomorrow, Friday morning, or overnight, heading into tomorrow. And we're cranking from there.

Come back Monday. Listen to theing from there. Come back Monday. Listen to the mailbag tomorrow. Come back Monday for Revenge of the Sith. There's no stopping now. Happy Halloween. Happy Halloween. Thanks to House of Mallory. Thanks to State Farm. Thanks to SimpliSafe. Don't forget,

they protect every door and window and room with 24-7 professional monitoring for just $15 a month, no contract, hidden fees, or fine print. Just for my listeners, SimpliSafe has a huge deal going on right now. SimpliSafe.com slash BS. You get a free HD security camera when you order. That's a $100 value. We'll make sure that you take advantage of their video verification technology. Get your free HD security camera right now. SimpliSafe with two I's, simplisafe.com slash BS. Don't forget to subscribe to the new Book of Basketball 2.0 podcast. And then Sunday night, me and the cuz coming on right after the Pats Ravens game. Hopefully we are coherent.

Can't wait for that one. Enjoy Halloween. Enjoy the weekend.