The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 1: AFC/NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: September 6, 2021

Football is back! In Part 1 of a two-part Sunday podcast, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to run through expected win totals of every NFL team and make their over/under picks. Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Fantasy football is back, and you don't want your team to suck. My favorite fantasy football punishment I've ever heard is the last place guy had to spend 24 hours in a waffle house, and every waffle he ate was one hour off of his count. I want numbers. How many did he end up eating? 12 waffles in 12 hours. I'm Danny Heifetz. I'm Danny Kelly.

And I'm Craig Horlbeck. We host the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a waffle house, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a waffle house, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us.

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subscribe to that, follow it for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We also launched the Ringer Mame Show, Errol Hawane, Chuck Benenhall, Pizza Carol. There was a UFC event last week. They came on Green Room. They talked about it. Then after the card, they did another Green Room that we turned right into a podcast. So reaction pods for basically the best, I don't know, 22 UFC events of the year. There's another one coming up this week too.

So follow that as well. And keep your eye out for our new Chicago podcast that we're launching with Jason Goff. I will give you the details as soon as you can follow it on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts, but it's going to be called The Full Go with Jason Goff three times a week, Chicago podcast. Coming up, a special two-part extravaganza. The Cuz is back. It's our 15th year. Not only are you going to do Guess the Lines, you have to wait until part two for that, but in part one, we're going to talk

about our favorite future bets. We're going to guess all the over-unders for win totals really fast. Let's do a little speed round and break down everything else you need to about the football season. This is part one. Two-part extravaganza with Cousin Sal. First, our friends from ProJet. All right, we did it. We made it to our 15th year of Guest Alliance. Cousin Sal is here. You can see him.

He has the Extra Points Network. He's on a bunch of podcasts. What else? him. He has the Extra Points Network. He's on a bunch of podcasts. What else? Just give us all the plugs right away. Who cares? Extra Points Podcast Network, extrapoints.com, Fox Bet Live. We're doing some shows, but not every day. I don't even know how to explain that, but it's great to be back for year 15. And we were going over before the show, the things that were older then. Yeah, that Guest Alliance is older then. Even though, to be fair, you had come up with this concept. You did it with Darren?

Yeah, with Darren. The Parley Kid. The Parley Kid, yes, yes. And then when we started working together at Jimmy Kimmel's show in 2002, we started doing Guest Alliance. I don't even think the show had launched yet. You pulled me in. Then we started doing it on the phone after I left.

And I always thought this could, this should be a radio show. It turned out to be a podcast. And here we are 50. Yeah. And we've made a lot of money guessing the lines and getting that advantage on everybody else. Knowing, guessing the lines ahead.

Oh no, we haven't. No, we've lost tons of money. We've lost a ton. Yeah. Wait, so what are we older than? What is Guest Alliance older than? Well, we're older than Breaking Bad, right? Because that came out, when did that come out?

Oh, eight? Yep. Looking at that. Sons of Anarchy, Clone Wars, Real Housewives of New York City, The Vibrating Razor. I think Siri Cruz, we're older than. I mean, we're 15. We're going to get our period any day now. We're older than Kevin Durant's NBA career.

Yes. We're older than any moment that you remember from Steph Curry because he had the two Davidson in 2008 and 2009. Nobody really knew who he was before then. And then he became Steph Curry. Yeah, those are some good ones. Yeah, I think we inspired Kevin Durant's career, I think. The Sopranos, Kyle was telling us the Sopranos ended a month before us or something.

Yeah, like two, three months before, and then it took you that long to recover to actually be able to do a pipe. You're still upset. I'm still upset. I actually thought that's what Guest the Lines was, just discussing the Sopranos ending for 15 years. Maddest you've been since I've known you. Still hasn't gotten better. I made the mistake of telling you I thought it had aged well and you got mad. Now everybody loves the Sopranos ending.

Like I'm the only one. By the way, I don't want to, I know we have a lot of football to discuss, but you're going to be jealous and mad. But I saw the Sopranos movie this weekend. Oh, wow.

Is that some sort of Jimmy thing? Yeah, he has David Chase on Tuesday or Wednesday. Jerk. I never get that call anymore. No, no. Just French. I'm like 10 levels below getting that. I don't water the planet enough with Jimmy, and now I just don't get those calls.

See? That's what happens. You're going to love it. You're going to love it. So when we started Guess the Lines in 07, the Patriots get Randy Moss that year and Welker. They blow out the Jets in

week one. We do Guess the Lines and then the next day all hell breaks loose and Spygate happens. I think that happened on like, basically by the time our pod was up, the Patriots had become villains and that became a running theme that whole year, leading to the Super Bowl, the Tyots had become villains and that became a running theme that whole year. Yeah.

Leading to the Super Bowl, the Tyreek catch, they lose. And then we've done, I mean, we used to have to call in. We'd be, yeah,

I'd be at the Super Bowl calling in from some shitty hotel connection. Right. We did some in person. We went to, it was Super Bowl in Dallas one year, I think we did

Guest Alliance in person. We did in Vegas. We did a preseason thing in Vegas. Yeah, I mean, to be fair, that's when Spygate started, but they've been cheating for many years before that. That's just when they got busted. Well, they would be cheating again this year as they go 12-5. I thought we could, actually, let's go big picture first.

Okay. I feel fantastic about the Patriots, and we'll get to that later. How do you feel about the Cowboys? How are you feeling? I'm feeling great. Zach Martin now out with COVID and already they have more guys out with COVID than they did all of last year. So freaking great. Now we're going to get, I think we're going to do a rapid fire over under, and I believe in this team beyond week one. But yeah, not a great start right off the bat. Did hard knocks make you feel better or worse?

No, I cringe with the hard knocks. You never want your team on hard knocks, right? Like if it was going to focus on Jerry for an hour, that's fine. But now Jerry's only like in the credits. He's on for like 40 seconds talking about Whataburger. And otherwise it's Dak and, oh man, I don't know. Who knows if he's going to come back and all this other stuff and guys eating yams in an empty cafeteria and losing a Connect Four. It's like, all right. And Mike McCarthy is a stumbling idiot. But let's just get on the field and play it ready, right? He's no Dave Campo.

Dave Campo is still the Nate Deer for Hard Knocks coaches. We have had some winners. I saw probably half of the season. Hard Knocks, I'm kind of bored by. I did see the C.D. Lamb is going to be the next Jerry Rice montage. It was exciting. They had something they weaseled, shoehorned in this Jerry Jones section about kind of the legacy of Jerry Jones,

like conveniently omitting that. I don't even think you've made the conference championship game since the mid-90s, right? 95. If you want to say that's mid-90s, that's fine. But 1995. It's like, you know, the excellence, the continuity, they're doing this whole thing.

But he agrees to it. He's the only one who likes this shit, this hard-knock shit. Like anyone else would run from it. Jerry loves it, but that's why it's weird that he's not really in it that much. When we worked at Jimmy's show the first year, somebody followed, a documentary crew followed the show around for the first few months.

Nobody loved it more than you. You were the most excited to watch it. There was our friend Hanch through the executive producer, our friend Daniel under the bus in the documentary. I've never seen you more excited. You had the tongue in the side of your cheek for an hour straight. It was excellent. But as a host, Jimmy refuses to watch it. It's just so miserable. Comment after comment. A lot of ghosts in there. Yeah, you're right.

We shouldn't go back. They're filming a documentary about us hurriedly launching a late night show. I wouldn't want to watch it either if I was Jimmy because it takes nine months to launch those things and we were doing it in like four weeks.

We're going to do some some over under stuff. We're going to try to do we're going to speed round it. We're just going to go on the record. We're going to try to go as fast as possible. We'll start with your team, Dallas.

Over, under, nine and a half. I'm going under. This is stupid. You're going under. Interesting. Okay, so you're going way under. I'm going 11 wins even though they lose to Tampa Bay. I say 11 and six because you're not seeing the rest of this division. I just, I'm drinking the Kool-Aid. I am.

I like Dan Quinn. I like defense a little better. I like Micah Parsons addition. It can't be worse than it was last year. And the best unit in the whole division is the Cowboys offense, not the Washington defense. No, you're going to say, I know you're going to go Washington over, but no, it's the Cowboys offense.

And they're going to be one of those sling it out teams. Like, all right, you want to beat us scored 43 and that'll be that. So I think they get 10 or 11 wins. I'm going over. I have a question. Yeah.

Didn't you bet on the Cowboys to have the best record in the NFL last year? Oh, yeah. Yeah. No, I lose this every year. There's a bunch of built-in... You know, it's like union raises. I have to actually bet some of these because it's just required. But yeah.

But no, I do like them better. Who else is better? I have you 0-2 coming out of the gate. You're at Tampa week one, and then you're at the Chargers, who I think are going to be good in week two. All Cowboys fans. Then you go Eagles, Panthers, Giants, at-pats. If you're 3-3 coming out of that, I think it's a miracle.

Oh, all right. Well, I had 4-1, I think, going into that Pats game. No miracles here. I'm going under. We're just going to win. You feel like it's either a 9-8 or an 8-9 team. Plus, what do we know with Prescott?

Like, how many... He had the Gordon Hayward injury. Everybody's like, he's going to be fine. I watched Gordon Hayward. It took him two years to come back. Yeah.

I don't know. Wow. Well, what's the timing on that? Is that three minutes before you mentioned basketball? Oh, no. You are a Celtics... Don't be a dick.

Oh, you mentioned Kevin Durant already. Okay. All right. Speaking of dicks, let's do Giants over-under is seven. Oh, you mentioned Kevin Durant already. Okay. Speaking of dicks, let's do Giants over under seven. I think we both go under on this. They're going to be bad. They can't block.

I think Daniel Jones is bad, and they're just going to be bad. I think they're going to be one of the five worst teams. People forget they've lost 10 or more in four straight seasons. They're 2-14 against the Eagles and Cowboys the last four seasons. They can't block, like you said. PFF has them ranked.

Their offensive line ranked dead last. I can't take a team over that's ranked dead last, and Saquon Barkley runs as hard as he does. He runs himself into an injury every time, and I just don't trust Danny Dimes. That's an under for me. That's 5-12, I think. A horrible offensive line

with Daniel Jones is just under, I don't need to see anyone else on the team. Philly is over under six and a half. I'm also going under on this. I, it feels right around where it's going to be. It feels like seven and 10, six and 11.

I got to say that guy I'm worried about is Minshew. Yeah. I would have liked the Cowboys to grab that. Like that was a, I feel like the, the Phillies cock blockedblocked all these teams. Remember, first of all, they took Hurts out in Week 17 so that the Giants couldn't make the playoffs,

and then the trade with Dallas to give it to Devonta Smith so that the Giants couldn't get him, and now this move so that the Cowboys don't get Minshew. They really are good at playing defense, except for when they actually have to play defense. Here's why I go under. $33.8 million in dead cap money. When you're in the 30 million range, you win like 28% of your games or something. So, and I don't believe in Jalen Hurts just yet. I hate their schedule.

The first seven weeks to add Atlanta home, San Fran at Dallas home chiefs at Panthers home bucks at Rams. And two of those are night games. And if they're even two and five coming out of that, they'd probably take it. Washington over under, this is who I have one in the division. I have over, it's eight and a half. I think they at least get to nine,

somewhere nine or 10, but I think this is the team in the division. Really? I mean, I guess people shouldn't just listen to me because I have the Cowboys over and I have everyone on there, but I do have Washington at seven wins. I mean, you think Fitzpatrick, but he's good for a month.

You don't know if it's the first month or the last month. But, you know, they were five and one with Alex Smith and two and eight with every other quarterback. So he. But the quarterbacks were so bad, though. I mean, to just even have a semi-competent QB has to be worth like three wins for them. Plus Gibson. Gibson, we're doing, I mean, you and I

are in two fantasy drafts in the next two days. Gibson's going to be, what, one of the top eight running backs that goes? Well, I think House protected him, right?

Well, one of ours. And the other one, he's wide open. And then McLaurin. They're not going to be impotent offensively like they were last year where it just felt bad

for Gibson. They got Rivera. I don't know. I like it barely, but I'm going over. So you're over or under on that? I went under. I still think seven, but I could be wildly off on this whole NFC East. I'm not going to keep track of these

because someone on the internet will and they'll send you the, in your Twitter replies, they'll send some graph of our picks. Only if they're bad. No, they'll do it and we'll send some graph of our picks. And I look forward to it. Only if they're bad. No, they'll do it. And we'll,

we'll give them a shout out and next podcast NFC North Chicago. They're over under a seven and a half. This to me is, is a lock. And I actually have money in this one. I don't see any scenario where they go eight, nine or better. I don't think they can block.

I like fields. I actually feel bad for fields, but I don't think they can block. I like fields. I actually feel bad for fields, but I don't like their skill, guys. I don't like the fact that they can't block for a rookie QB. In their division, they have a couple tough... They have to play the AFC North and the NFC West, which is brutal, plus Green Bay

twice, and I don't see a path for them to get to eight wins. Do you? Interesting. I have them exactly at eight. That's what I have them, eight and nine, because I think that someone has to be not decent, but just below average there. And I don't trust Nagy. He was like 12 and four and then 16 and 16

the last two years. And if you play any fantasy, Montgomery had a resurgence in the second half of the year. And I don't know, Justin Fields, I think they'll figure it out. I don't think Dalton will kill them the first five games and then you'll put Justin Fields in and just two wins against the Lions,

a couple wins here. I have them at eight and nine. I'm not excited about it though. I have Nagy as first coach fired as well, which I got in at seven to one. There's a stretch here. If they're two and three after the first five, which is realistic because they're at Rams, at Browns,

at Raiders, then they have home against Bengals Lions. But then they go home Packers at Bucks, home Niners, at Steelers on a Monday night bye week. And if they're like 2-7 heading into that bye week, I think he's out. He probably should have been out anyway. I think he's got the shortest leash

out of everyone, right? Like Kingsbury, I guess. Your guy, maybe. If you guys saw him coming out of the game. I just said we'd never fire anyone. I mean, look what it takes to fire a Cowboys coach. But the Bengals coach. Jason Garrett. It's a hostage situation.

Good Lord. All right. Detroit, the over-under is five. I have the under. I also have them for worst record in the league at four to one, which we'll get to later when we do million dollar picks. I assume you have the under as well for this. You don't see a path for six.

I have them winning three games. I mean, it's interesting. They have a lunatic coach every year. This Dan Campbell replacing Patricia. So that's going to be exciting. But look, they haven't won a playoff game since 1991. You got Anthony Lynn as the offensive coordinator. If anything spells rebuilding year, it's this.

And that offensive line is not good. And Stafford helped himself. I wasn't in the Stafford, you know, coming to Rams is a great move until I read up. I did a lot of research this summer. I'm like, this is going to work out for the Rams and it's not going to work out for the Lions. I remember when they made the trade, you and I like, oh, they probably won't even start golf. Well, guess what? It looks like they're starting golf. So it really spells rebuilding year to me. And I have them right at three wins. I mean, golf had 55 giveaways in the last three years and that's when he had an

offensive line. And it looks like now who knows with Sewell, their guy, they took seventh in the last three years. And that's when he had an offensive line. And it looks like now who knows with Sewell, their guy, they took seventh in the first round. Yeah. Who was supposed to be the stud tackle. And then he just looked awful in the preseason. And there was stuff about, is this guy bust? And I was like, wow, if they didn't hit on that guy, this could be like a full fledged disaster. Schrager was on here and he was saying like, you know, Campbell's such such a such like a maniac that it'll be hard for them to be that bad and it's like

I actually think that makes it worse if he's a maniac it's like if you have a terrible team and you have a maniac coach that actually seems like that's

the worst possible thing I'd rather have like a half dead coach yeah exactly and Schrager thought and a lot of us thought like Salah would go there right he just didn't

interview well or something like that was going to be their coach they could have played it a little straighter than that went to the Jets alright so Green Bay is 10 and a half and I don't like this either I think this feels high so I somehow I'm going under

on every team in this division and I'm just going to hope to go 3-1 here's the problem with Green Bay. Their offensive line's kind of a mess coming out of the gate. They've had an injury. They lost somebody. And you go read the stories about them, and it's like if they could just get everything ready for six weeks

until I forget the name of the guy that's coming back. Well, Bakhtari is the guy. Bakhtari. I mean, they lost him last year, right? Yeah. It just seems like Rogers figures out how to avoid trouble, even with the worst offensive line.

So you're going over for this? I'm going under only because it looks suspicious to me. It's like 10 and a half. They won 13 last year. They're 11 and one against the North the last two years. It's seven pro bowlers are tied for first.

They have them all back 14 to two at home. Like having no fans last year didn't seem to matter why that this seems like a joke. Like, I don't know why. And yet I only see them going 10 and seven. Cause I think they're going to be the team to beat in that division. And like you said, AFC North NFC West plus new Orleans plus at new Orleans, plus at Kansas city and plus Washington is a tough enough schedule to keep them honest. So I have them 10 and 7, but still winning the division. Yeah, and honestly, they could be 10 and 6 and throw away the last week because I think this is the worst division.

I even like Dallas as the number two team in your terrible division. I like them more than the other three teams in this division. So I think 10 and seven is realistic for green Bay. I really was trying hard to figure out a way to have Minnesota win this division. And let's get to them now. They're over under his eight and a half. I looked at it. I flipped it around. I held it up. I had, I had the sun shining through it. I just couldn't get there. The COVID they seem like they have the worst COVID potential of anyone in the league for just week

after week, guys getting scratched of 25 guys getting COVID in one week, all this stuff. And it just seems like it's going to hang over them this whole season. Yeah. I am going, well, I think I had them over because they're, you said they're eight and a half, but I am over too. I'm sorry. I have them over

and have eight now. Yeah. So I have them at nine. So not enough to 8.5, but it's a hefty thing. I am over, too. I'm sorry. I'm over an F8 now. Yeah, so I have them at 9. So not enough to win the division. But man, there's such a caveat with it. I don't know what this... All these guys, first of all, player props under individuals is the way to go, as we know anyway. They suck at taking the over. And then there's injuries left and right. And now this isn't even political.

The COVID protocols being what they are, like cousins may have to sit a game or two. And Kellen Mond also not vaccinated. He may have to sit a game or two. So I don't know what they're doing. Their coaches doing press conferences. Zimmer's is practically crying. Like,

please get back, please do it. So to me, this is like the, you know, this is the fantasy team you want, right? They had the first team ever to have 4,000 yard passer,

1500 yard rusher, and a 1,400-yard receiver in Justin Jefferson. But otherwise, I don't know. That defense, I know they have guys coming back, but I see this as a 9-and-8 team. I don't like their injury prospects at all, like you said. And it's a real factor this year. It absolutely is. Yeah, I think my least favorite schedule of all the teams.

Like, since the week one, then they go at Cardinals, home Seattle, home Cleveland. Just three in a row. They have your team in a night game in week eight, followed by at Ravens, at Chargers, home Packers, at Niners. They get an easy Lions game. Then they go Steelers Thursday night, at Bears Monday night, Rams at Packers. They get an easy Lions game. Then they go Steelers Thursday night at Bears Monday night, Rams at Packers. And then they finished with Bears. It's just like,

there's no other than the two Lions games. They have no breaks and they tab AFC North NFC West. And then the combo of if the Panthers are good, it's like, it's basically like every team they play is going to be good except for Bengals and Lions. So yeah, I, I have them atals and Lions. Yeah.

I have them at 9 and 8. That's where I'm exactly right. 8 and 9 feels low because of the talent they have. NFC South, we'll try to go quicker. Atlanta is 7 and a half. I actually like the over. Oh, man. I don't know why. I know this is one of your kryptonite teams.

Well, I have them over too. I mean, I have them like 11 or 12 wins. I'm a freaking idiot. Like the Arthur Smith first year coach. I have them make the playoffs too. I think, I mean, they're four and 12 last year. Why do I love them so much? Like they lose Julio Jones.

I'm banking on this Kyle Pitts kid. I really am. The kid is going to be good, Bill. The kid from Atlanta. I love Francesca. The kid from Atlanta. It's Kyle Pitts. And he's going to be good. And their biggest Atlanta. I love Francesco. The kid from Atlanta. It's Kyle Pitts. And it's going to be good.

And their biggest problem is red zone woes. And I think he solves that. I think he's just a monster. He's going to get open. They got Mike Davis. I think we'll do a decent job. You know, 1,000 yards on the ground plus eight touchdowns last year. I think their offense will be good. And they're going to surprise some teams. And I have them going way over the seven and a half. I like them as well.

One of the playoff bets I liked was them at two to one because with the seven teams, I think the second, there's two playoff teams from this division. I'm pretty confident. So I think this is the second team. You know, the Ringer fantasy show, Craig was talking

about how he was hearing somebody talk about Mike Davis. Like nobody loves Mike Davis, but everybody agrees he's in a good situation. And the guy was like, this guy, Mike Davis, is such a good situation. So Craig said he should be called Mike the Situation, like Jersey Shore. And I kind of like it. I think if Mike the Situation becomes a gimmick for him, I would like Mike Davis even more. Mike, the situation 1300 yards this year. Yes. The new Mike, the situation who's slightly more tan than the other, the real, the original has gigantic thighs. Did you remember that from last year, the training camper? So yeah, he's, I always liked Mike Davis. He's Jim tan laundry. Sign him up. Caroline over under seven and a half. I was slight under for me, but, uh, only because of

Darnold. I just think he's not good. It was a change of scenery. Sam Darnold. It's like, you can change all the scenery you want. You're still Sam Darnold. And I don't know why they didn't keep Bridgewater. I didn't think he was that bad for them.

Yeah, I have them. So you have them at seven. I mean, that's what I am. Six and 11, seven and 10. All right.

Yeah, that's what I have. Yeah. One in five against the NFC South. Darnold, say what you will, but he has the worst completion percentage out of anyone in the last three seasons

with over like 20 starts or something. But the checkdowns to McCaffrey could help a lot. They really can. And if that's a formidable offense, it could be decent enough to get seven wins. I just think like people compare it to Tannehill, like change of scenery. I just feel like it's a different situation.

Tannehill had Adam Gase, who is just the QB destroyer. And, and I know Darnold had some Adam Gase as well. Tannehill succeeded at least a little bit. Like there were games against the Patriots where I was like, oh shit, Tannehill is kind of frisky. He's moving around. He's doing stuff. I never felt like he was awful. Darnold to me, I just, I never really saw it. I never got it. I never understood it. I don't think the Jets fans really saw it either. They weren't upset when he left. The Taneo thing is a little more realistic to me.

The defense went from 31st to 18th. One thing I'll say about Darnold is he's still 23. How many years are we going to hear about all these drafted quarterbacks are older than Sam Darnold? I feel like three years from now it's like, yeah, still older than Sam Darnold. I sam donald like what how did this happen so it's like rafael devers is like that he's younger than right all these dudes like he's younger than jared duran

who's their big rookie he's like a young guy jared duran and devers has been the league for five years uh new orleans is nine i have over for them francesca talked me into it. It comes down to this for me. Drew Brees, as we laid out many times in this podcast, I just thought he was a liability for them last year. And if Jameis, I know he's going to have a couple dumb throws, but I also think he's going to have a couple good throws.

And I just think he opens up their offense. And then the Taysom thing and Sean Payton, I just can't see them going under 500. It seems unrealistic to me. I got them right at eight and nine. First of all, this is a tough stretch. I mean, this is tough emotionally for New Orleans, right? Coming into the season, like they're going to be playing on the road and on the road for who knows, like for a month now. That's tough. This, I don't know, this Michael Thomas thing is ridiculous. Out and definitely

chooses to get the surgery last month or something. They cloned him, though. It's like Barbra Streisand's dog. He's the new Michael Thomas. It's preseason. It's fine. I just think there's a lot asking of Alvin Kamara here. I think Winston's the right

move. I don't care about the interceptions. He didn't have a really good offensive line in Tampa, so just give me the guy, 5,000 yards, whatever he had. Um, but I think it's only good enough for eight wins, eight and nine. I said there there'll be somewhere between eight and 10. I like the nine because it's basically if they hit nine, you're good. It's a push. Uh, we're gonna take a break and talk about Tampa. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance.

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and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. Tampa Bay over under 11 and a half. Yeah. We'll be talking about them later when we do some Super Bowl futures that I'm going to throw All right, Tampa Bay, over under 11.5. Yeah, I have a weapon. We'll be talking about them later when we do some Super Bowl futures that I'm going to throw at you. But I hate picking the team that won the year before to win again. But if you look at everything with this team,

they brought back everyone, which seemed inconceivable in January, February. It's like, oh, they'll definitely lose Godwin. Somehow they bring all their receivers back. Somehow they made their defensive line better with try on. Try on is like,

people are saying he's the defensive rookie of the year possibility, all that stuff. I just think they're going to be absolutely loaded. And now you have like, they actually got to practice together all year. They had Brady there the whole year. Brady seems locked in. Brady,

the back to back thing for him to be able to do that yet again at another stage in his life. And I don't think their schedule is that hard. I think they're going to be at least 12 and five. So I'm going over. I know everyone's going to hate this reasoning, but I think this is a fixed line for every reason you said, like 11 and a half. All right. They lost five games last year, right? So they were 11 and five. I'm going to make the case that everyone's gunning for them, but it really doesn't make sense that they shouldn't win 12 or 13 games in that division.

And you know, uh, what did we say? 22 starters back plus Antonio Brown. So deep. That's the thing. It's like, they have no holes.

Nobody can find holes other than the fact that their quarterback's 44. But if I can look at that guy and he's like Benjamin Button, it doesn't make sense. But that's it, right? Is it that what you're banking on? You're banking on the, all right, here I go now, the NBA center who is 37 years old and racks up great numbers, and he's going to turn 38, and then it's all going to go down seven points a game, right? Like that's the only thing you're banking on if you take the under. And I feel like that's what I'm doing here.

Taking them to go 11-6. So you're going under? 11-6, slightly under. So you overthought this. Come on, Sam. I know I did. This is... Well, you got to get better.

You have to get better at this stuff. You stare at these lines for six months and then you over... You're going against this is the most talented team in the league by far. Let me ask you, did you go every win? Did you say, okay, Atlanta wins this game? I did. I actually did.

I did a lot of prep. It all added up. That's what I did. I'm trying to think who I gave Atlanta Tampa Bay losses to. The only thing that sucks with Tampa. Yeah. They,

all of the good teams that they play, they have the bad luck. It's on the road. Cause they're at Rams week three. They're at paths week, week four. They're, uh,

at, uh, at the Colts. I guess they have the bills home. So maybe that's not a hundred. They're at Washington. If you like them so much and think they're going to win 10. I just think I,

to me, they're 14-3, 13-4. They're somewhere in there. I think they comfortably get the over. Well, if they run the division, yeah, if they run the division, that's a different story. Yeah, go ahead. NFC West, this is easy to me.

I'm going under Arizona and over for the other three. So Arizona, the over-under is eight. I just think they have the misfortune of being in the wrong division this year. Well, this is probably three of the best seven teams in the league in their division. So they're kind of screwed. I'm with you on ours.

Yeah, we can go through this quick, even though it is the best division should require the most time. But I think they're seven and 10. I think Kingsbury's in trouble. I believe that, you know, Murray was banged up a little last year towards the end, but I don't think it matters against these monsters

whose over-under win total is all 10 or 10.5. And I like the Rams. I really do. I like them winning 13 games. I love Stafford. I love, you know, you look at it,

he's the only time he had a top 10 defense. The Lions went 11-5. Like, he's going to be great for this team. He's not going to screw up as much as they're used to. McVay is, I mean, he's going to be great for this team. He's not going to screw up as much as they're used to. McVay is... I mean, he's got

to be in love with it. He had to be pulling his hair out with Jared Goff. Now he's got a real quarterback. Granted, they had injuries to the running back. Handmakers are figuring out to get Sonny Michel. You can patch running backs together. Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, Aaron Donald.

They're built to win this year. They gave away all these draft picks to compete for the Super Bowl this year or next year. The reason I'm rushing through NFC West is I just feel like we talked about it too much in the pod. I think the Rams are a Super Bowl team, potentially. That's over under 10.5.

I'm good there. So you got Seattle and the Niners having 11 or more? I got San Francisco 10.5. I'm willing to debate Seattle you got Seattle and the Niners having 11 or more? I got San Francisco 10 and a half. I'm willing to debate Seattle because I think that's my least favorite out of the three. And the Seattle, the over-under is 10. I guess the reason I like the over for this is

I don't see them going nine and eight. So if it's 10 and it's a push, I'm good. If they get 11 and six, great. But I don't see the nine and eight with Russell Wilson. That seems inconceivable to me. They have too many good players. Yeah, I actually do have a nine and eight. I have them under, I have the 49ers under at 10 and I have three teams from the West making the playoffs and I have, uh, and the other team is, I guess, Atlanta and Tampa Bay from that. The 10 is not as intimidating with the 17 game schedule, right? Yeah. It's 10

and seven. That's not a great record. I'm not like telling my grandkids that I went 10 and seven. Yeah, that's true. So for them to go 10 and seven, I don't love to have a stretch in their schedule. They're at Colts, home Titans to start. And then they go at bikes at 49ers, home Rams on a Thursday at Steelers on a Sunday, home Saints on a Monday. I don't like that five-gamer there, but that could also be we could be coming into that Sunday night, week six Steelers game, and the whole Russell Wilson MVP could be starting at that point. I don't even know who we're talking about.

You got to factor that into the schedule. Yeah, Al Michaels and Chris doing the... Al, I just don't understand it. I don't understand how this guy has zero MVPs. I don't understand it. I don't understand how this guy has zero MVPs. I don't understand it. I don't understand it. Yeah, that's the thing. He is MVP up until week nine in everyone's book, right?

And then he's MVP as long as you don't go through the actual seasons where you thought it should win the MVP. All right, AFC. We'll do these fast. Buffalo over under 11. Buffalo is going to come up a lot in this podcast. I have over...

If they don't go 12-5, I'm going to assume Josh Allen got hurt. That's where I stand on Buffalo. I think their offense... I think they're ready. The fact that they kept Dayball, who just should have been hired for one of the 19 open head coaching jobs, and they have this completely overqualified offensive coordinator who is ready to be

head coach and a ton of weapons. I don't love their running backs, but it's fine. Same thing with the Rams. But, you know, offense is better than their defense. I don't think their schedule is that tough. I think the AFC East team's actually lucked out. They got to play the AFC South, NFC South this year. So I'm over.

Where are you? I think I have a push. I think it's right at 11, right? So I think I have a push. And again, like, this is a weird thing the the division champ and people picking to win the Super Bowl last year they won 13 games there's an extra game and they're over under is just 11 I think it has to do with the fact that they ran the table they were six and oh in the division but I don't see Josh Allen getting worse um I that defense did go down a little the scoring defense

went from second to like 16th overall. So what do you think? If you think they're three and three in the division, then you go under. If you think they're five and one or six and oh again, I think you go over. And I'm going right on the push there. 11 wins.

I think there are four and two-ish in that division. That's lame. That's like a Joe House move. I have another push in there too. I know. I'm sorry. Miami's nine and a half. I'm going under just because I like the P House move. I have another portion here too. I know. I'm sorry. Miami's nine and a half. I'm going under just because I like the Pats more.

You don't mind? Yeah. I don't love the Tua thing. The fact that the Deshaun Watson trade rumors started and they didn't come flying out being like, no, no, no. We're not trading this guy. That was weird, I thought.

I thought so too. That's where somebody's got to step forward and be like i don't know where this is coming from two has been a fucking delight in the preseason he's our guy we're not trading him any rumor about this is false we have a quarterback nobody did it why didn't they do it someone should have stepped up now the flip side of that is who do we have oh we talked about brady quinn and he's like players just know that a lot of this most of this is bullshit now there's no accountability in journalism and so if they hear it like just ignore it there might have been that talk with the coaches like look you're hearing stuff just ignore it it's not true blah blah but they didn't no one you're right someone should

have had a press conference somewhere and denied it but i'm with you i like them uh only winning eight games going eight nine they have like two offensive coordinators. I don't know how that works. Remember, they lost some bad games. They lost 56-26 to Buffalo when they could have made the playoffs in Week 17, and I just don't think... I mean, Tua's passer

rating was under 100 the last six games of the season, so maybe it's the injury, maybe it's not, but I think that division is better and good enough to keep them under 500. I don't like that they go at-pats, home-bills, at-Raiders, first three. And then they have

the stupid London game in week six right after a Buccaneers game. The start of their schedule is pretty rough. I just feel like with the Tua thing, I need to see it. Yeah, sure. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong wrong but until he shows me that he can be even above average but i do think it's weird like if there was a story out that i was dumping nephew kyle for jim cunningham and it's like jim cunningham he might be available

blah blah blah and that was out there i would come out and be like, I'm not trading nephew Kyle. That's my guy. Where did this come from? Right. That's interesting. This is stupid. Yeah. This came from the Betty Ford Clinic.

Good job. Kyle, I got your back, buddy. Kyle's not going anywhere. Speaking of Kyle, the Pats, the dumbest over under the year, over under nine. Did it go up to nine and a half or not? It's nine and a half.

Nine and a half. Minus 140. It was nine for a while. I bet it at nine. Now it's nine and a half. Nine and a half minus 140. It was nine for a while. I bet it at nine. Now it's nine and a half. I still love it. I'm going over the Pats are going 11 and six. So, all right.

But you did the, yeah, it's nine and a half. The over is actually even now it's now. And I went over too, but now I can't stand you. You Patriots fans, you Red Sox, like everything is so doom and gloom or it's the greatest in the world. And now this Mac Jones, I mean, did you see Alabama play this week? Like they had a quarterback that didn't take a snap before this week. And they, they trucked Miami. Like they put up like 60 points almost like this is Alabama's offense.

This is not a guy you wanted in the, in March. You didn't care if you got Mac Jones and now I did, he does some checkoffs to some tight ends and preseason and you love him. Come on, but just relax a little. Let's see them play. I'm going to do the opposite of relaxing. I have the over. Jets over under six. That's it? That's all we're talking about?

The Patriots? They're coming up later. I have some million dollar pick futures for them. Jets over under six. I had to look at this like three times. Yeah. Are the Jets going seven and 10? No. And are any circumstances? No. You're going to hate me, but I have them right on six, six and 11, six of the first team, seven teams they played. Didn't make the playoffs. I think, uh, I think Zach Wilson

is going to fit nicely in that offense. They're not going to embarrass themselves. They had nine losses by double digits. They didn't score 30 once last year. They have a ways to go. I have them at 6-11. I have them starting at 0-3 at Panthers, homepats at Broncos. There's an 0-3 start. Now they would have to go 6-8 the rest of the way.

That Panthers game, because my team plays on a Thursday, I think I'm most excited for that game, Panthers-Jets. I really, I mean, we'll get to guess the lines, obviously, but it's what has to happen for Adam Gase not to look like an asshole. Like, just both teams have to suck forever. I don't know. That's a good point. It's the Gase ball.

Yeah. AFC North, Baltimore over under is 10 and a half still. I have a hard under on this. Yeah, I have nine. So nine wins. So that's under. Is Baltimore 10 and a half or 11? Let me see.

They're 11. Oh, it's 11? I have them at 10 and a half. 11 even. So you like the under even more. I thought it dropped after the Dobbins thing. But I guess it went back up. It might have have I absolutely hate

their schedule talked about it a little last week in the pod but it is a gauntlet they're playing the AFC West and the NFC North I think the AFC West

would be the number one division I wouldn't want this year other than the NFC West what do you mean you wouldn't want you wouldn't want to play against them

yeah because I have to go Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos and even Vegas I'm not like that's not like an easy 14 you know right and that's who they play the opening week right there at vegas that's going to be interesting to see who what kind of fans they get in vegas right is it going to be every bachelor parties you know uh annual trip like it's like no no let's go see our team play there or are they going to have the rabid Black Hole fans? We obviously didn't see it last year, but I kind of think that they're going to have

a home field advantage. I have the Ravens on their same thing. I think this Dobbins thing hurts. Their first round pick, Bateman is banged up. I don't even know what kind of wide receiver you could give Lamar Jackson to make that a nice situation. Also, I don't know how many times he's gotten COVID. Again, not political, but he's going to sit.

He's going to warm up next to somebody who catches it. And the protocols in place are going to say, no, you're out for 10 days. The COVID thing's a real thing. And when it's the team's best player, it's alarming. And if you're telling me I have to get to 11 plus wins to win my bet, no thanks. Because odds are Lamar is going to miss multiple games. Cincinnati six and a half is the number under, I think they're going to be bad.

I actually look at the Zach Taylor first coach fired. Yeah. I don't, I, the borough coming out that knee injury feels like it happened a week ago. And they're like, yeah, his knee,

he's still gaining his confidence back. I don't like this team. And then, um, yeah, his knee, he's still gaining his confidence back. I don't like this team. And then their stretch down the stretch last seven weeks, home Steelers, home Chargers,

home Niners, at Broncos, home Ravens, home Chiefs, at Browns. So they have five home games down the stretch, but they're all against

good teams if the Steelers are good. Yeah. And then that first part of the season where they have more of the road games, and that's going to be when Burrow's starting to feel, I just don't see it.

What do you have? I have them at seven wins. I guess I have them over, barely over. You're like sagging left and right. Yeah, I know what you're doing. You got to do it. You're sagging. I usually lose these.

But, you know, they scored, what, 21 points a game with Burrow, 16 points a game without. Made a huge difference. Remember how excited we were about Joe Burrow? They spent over $100 million on defense. Hendrickson got some cornerbacks in there. I think they're going to play some cold weather games and win 7-10. Win the games that no one cares about down the stretch.

That's one of my least favorite coaches. I'm sure he's a nice guy. You don't like him? Yeah. I have him, Nagy, Gase is gone. I just think there's some coaches that you watch

and you're like, wow, what's wrong with that team? That team seems off. Why'd they do that? He's a why'd they do that coach to me. I don't get it.

They swore by this guy. I know. But maybe he just should be an awesome offensive coordinator. Yeah. Cleveland, over under 10 and a half. I have the over.

I love the over. I like them to win the division too, which we'll get to when we do future bets. Yeah, I under 10.5. I have the over. I love the over. I'd like them to win the division too, which we'll get to when we do future bets. Yeah, I do too. Young secondary, but 11 wins. I mean, all the pieces are there. Bells and whistles. And really, Baker doesn't even have to be a top.

Could Baker be the 25th best quarterback in the league and then still win this division? I really feel that that's the case with them. I mean, he's already in there. He's got a team that averages 149 yards rushing. He's got a good defense. They had Clowney and Malik Jackson, seven new starters. Obviously, Miles Garrett's in there.

11-6 for this team. We learned last year with the Brady four-game playoff experience. If your team's really good, you just basically have to make a couple good plays and make sure you don't throw like four picks in half and you'll be fine. Baker can do some stuff. I still don't trust him.

We saw it last year in the playoffs in the we absolutely need a touchdown in this drive situation. He didn't get it. Remember? It was like the three and out. It was like their whole season was online. He didn't get it. Remember? It was like the three and out. It was like their whole season was online. I don't totally trust him, but I also don't trust him to fuck it up either.

Pittsburgh, eight and a half. This to me is the AFC version of your team. A lot of weapons. I'm not really sold on anything else. They have a couple studs on defense like you do. Well, they have a great defense. They have a very good defense like we did. Not as good as it was last year, though. They have a couple studs on defense like you do. Well, they have a great defense. They have a very good defense like we did. Not as good as it was last year, though.

They lost some guys. They lost Dupree. Well, last year they had a bunch of injuries. On offense, they lost some offensive linemen, but no, I think they're going to be all right. TJ Watt led in sacks and Minka Fitzpatrick was great to give up for a first-round pick.

I think they'll be all right. Honestly, this sounds lame, but I'm going with Tomlin to keep the streak alive, to not go under 500. I have them right at nine and eight. How do they not go nine and eight? What's that? How do they not go nine and eight? Yeah, exactly. I mean, they're going to tweak the Ben thing to make sure, you know,

that they can kind of keep them going for four straight months. But he has so many weapons. They almost made the playoffs with Rudolph and Duck Hodges, right? They'll be 9-8. You don't want to go too crazy about the preseason, but Big Ben looked nifty in the pocket. He looked like things that he couldn't do week 14 on. So that's promising.

I don't think they win 12, 13 games. I certainly don't think they start off 11, no. But 9-8 for them. The running back think they win 12, 13 games. I certainly don't think they start off 11, no. But 9 and 8 for them. The running back, by all accounts, is spectacular. And I thought their running backs last year were

exceptionally mediocre and they couldn't block from them either, at least this year. All right. You're going to be bidding on Najee Harris. 100%.

100%. One thing with Pittsburgh, high variance team. Like, if you told me they're going to go 14-3, I wouldn't be stunned. If you told me they're going to go 8-9,

I wouldn't be stunned. Right? Right. But not 5-12. But not the other way. Right? I'd be stunned if they won. That would have to be

a Roethlisberger's career is basically over by week seven situation. Like Peyton Manning the last year in Denver, if the team wasn't good around him. cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days and the ability to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide redefine possible with business platinum that's the powerful backing of american express terms and conditions apply visit amex.ca business

platinum how can you be sure your child is making the right decision when choosing a university? The smart approach is to look at the facts, like the fact that York U graduates have a 90% employer satisfaction rate. That's because across its three GTA campuses, York U's programs are strategically designed to prepare students for a meaningful career and long-term success. Join us in creating positive change at yorku.ca slash write the future. AFC South Houston. We don't need to belabor over-unders four. I'm just going under. I just feel like Detroit and Houston,

maybe the Jets will be lobbying for that number one pick. I have them right at three or four wins. I don't know how. I mean, they're not going to be favored in any... I don't want to ruin the guest of the lines, but you're replacing Watson, who had 4,800 yards and 33 touchdowns and was sacked 155 times in three years.

You have to replace that. They're not going to be able to do that. And everyone who follows this shit religiously was saying how he was incredible last year, even though they were like, what, 4-12 12 and they were like, Sean Watson was fantastic. So now you're putting Tyrod Taylor in there in the Deshaun Watson and the team's that much better. I don't like it. Indianapolis is eight and a half. I have the under for them too. See, okay. So you talk about a fixed line, right? Like why isn't everyone taking the Titans at minus 140?

What are they to win the division? Let's see. What are they to win the division? They get some defensive parts in there. They're basically even odds, right? Minus 110 for the division, Tennessee. Explain that to me. Because they won the division last year.

They bulk up the defense. They sign Julio Jones, who everybody loves. The Colts still don't know what's going on with this quarterback. You can't believe when Carson Wentz, and it's still a coin flip to win the division. I'm going the other way. I'm going Colts at nine. Well, the Colts are going to go nine. I know.

They're going to go nine and eight. And I think the Titans are going to go nine and eight. So Titans go under nine and a half. And the Colts are the number. Exactly. And then I don't know what the tiebreaker is. I have the Colts winning the tiebreaker at nine and eight. Well, tell me what you think the Colts record is going to be after these five games. I know it's tough. I know it's really home Seattle, home Rams at Tennessee

at Dolphins at Ravens Monday night. Right. So that's why you think they can get two and three out of that. I don't know, but after they're by their new're New England, Arizona, Vegas, and Jacksonville. So I think that's where they make it up a little bit. But I know what you're saying. That's a bad, if they're going to quit on the team, that would be them. But good defense. I like the good defense.

I think that division has a chance to have the, what was the NFC East winner last year? Seven and nine? Yes. Yeah. I think this is our like seven and 10, eight and nine division champ potentially. I'm going under for them. Jacksonville. I think this is our 7-10, 8-9 division champ potentially. I'm going under for them.

Jacksonville. I will say this about the South. The Colts could face five rookie quarterbacks. That's pretty big. That's interesting. They're a little less

than a third of your schedules all rookies. Not bad. Now, if you have Carson Wentz, you're not that much ahead of the game. Forgot to mention with this division, they play the AFC East and the NFC West, which is tough.

The Jets is the only easy game out of those eight teams you're playing against. Tennessee has Kansas City at Pittsburgh and New Orleans are their extra games. Oof. Jacksonville over under six and a half. So I liked them about a month ago. I have a bet. I bet on them to win the division 8-1. I took a flyer on it just because this division is so bad.

And then you actually read the stuff and you watch them in the preseason and you're going, oh, this team sucks. Yeah. Then Eddie N gets hurt. It's over under six and a half. I'm going under. I'm going under too. I think it's five and 12.

They're a year away. This would be like the rebuilding year. Just make sure Lawrence doesn't get hurt. Well, it's interesting you say that. I mean, if you gave me decent odds on Urban Meyer under a year and a half, I could see him walking away. I don't think I would get fired. But I just see the Tebow thing was nonsensical.

Obviously, getting at the end, you have to have your buddy, Trevor Lawrence's buddy there as a third down back. Okay, now he's hurt. And now the COVID statement he made, he must be like, I think he feels like he has too many bosses. He had a sound bite from Hard Knocks and he's just like, hey, how's it going, coach?

He's like, kind of like sighed. It's over already before it even started. Yeah, I think 5 and 12. Remember, they were one and 15. They go five and 12. That's a pretty good time. Yeah, that's America. Yeah.

Yeah, I think that's a good call. What was Spurrier? Was one year with Washington? Yeah. He was done. Saban was like three. Screw this. I'm not the boss

in any aspect there. Tennessee over-unders nine. I hate it, but I'm going over just because I don't... I think they win the division and I don't feel good about saying 8-9 I guess the thing with this team

the defense was horrible last year it's a little better this year they added that Caleb Farley who a lot of players passed on I worry about the Henry the amount of miles they put on Henry the last couple years is alarming there's really not a lot of.

It's unprecedented. I think it's 681 carries. Like if you look at his over under, so he had over 2000 yards. I think he's expected that 1500 yards. We'll go on to props. This isn't one of my favorites, but you'll never see a disparity of 500 yards from a player who's not coming back from an injury. Right.

So I think that factors into their over under. Why should they be nine, 11 and five last year. And there's no Deshaun Watson. So I'm going against the grain and saying a push. They go nine and eight. Now he is superhuman, but we've seen over the years,

these running backs that have that kind of workload and it just is over overnight. It's like the priest home syndrome. It's like, yeah, what happened? And then it's at A overnight. It's like the priest home syndrome. It's like, yeah, what happened? And then it's it. AFC West Denver over under your nemesis is eight and a half.

I love it. I'm going over. I like this Denver team. I really do. I like the Broncos over. I can't do it. I can't. I know,

you know, I, every year I take Atlanta and Denver and now it's like, you know what? I could only take one. I took Atlanta. I can't mix Quaaludes and vodka know what? I could only take one. I took Atlanta. I can't mix Quaaludes and vodka. So that's it.

I'm just sticking with Atlanta and I'm going Denver under. I know they got some secondary help through free agency. But I think it looks like he's a defensive rookie of the year candidate. Yeah, I just want. Yeah, for sure. Looking good. But I don't. What do you think happened?

Do you think they really relied on getting Rogers? Like, don't you think they would have you think they really relied on getting Rogers? Like, don't you think they would have traded down to get one of these quarterbacks? So they were okay with this Bridgewater. I think they think they're getting Rogers a year from now. It'd be my guess. I also think they love certain.

I think they thought he was a franchise cornerback. You know what Denver reminds me of with you? What's that? And this has actually happened. So this is from experience with us in Vegas, blackjack table, you get demolished, you leave. I refuse to leave because I'm a psycho table turns. We're all winning. It's great. We've got this dealer. It's a big party. You wander back. We're like, come sit down. It's it's it's, but we're on a run. You're like, no,

no, no. And you just kind of sadly watch as we win for another hour. Right. That's going to be the Broncos with you this year. That's it. Interesting. Okay. You're going to be just standing five feet away,

kind of pacing back and forth as I'm hitting blackjacks with Teddy Bridgewater. You've put me in that very uncomfortable position as a friend many times where I'm off, I'm out and like, I have to decide, like, all right, I'm going to leave back. Am I, am I a dick as a friend if I don't sit back with him or am I going to lose my kid's tuition here? Like, and then, whereas I'm off, I'm out, and I have to decide. I have to leave back. Am I a dick as a friend if I don't sit back with him,

or am I going to lose my kid's tuition here? Whereas I'm just standing waiting for you to lose, rooting for you to lose the last three hands. Son of a bitch. He doubled down, and he won, and he kept winning. It's like how you bullied me to be in the fantasy draft again. How dare you? Kansas City over under 12 and a half.

I got to say, I got to go under. That's a lot of wins. 12 and a half I gotta say I gotta go under that's a lot of wins 12 and a half they have to go 13 and 4 their schedules not easy they start out Browns at Ravens Chargers they get to play the Bills they're on night they have a bunch of night games they have a Raiders

on a Monday night they got their divisions tough I don't know yeah 5 prime time plus the AFC North plus at Tennessee, Green Bay, and Buffalo. But again, this is one of those weird things where they were 14-2 last year and kind of coasted, right? They didn't cover any of those games down the stretch. Kind of did just what they needed to do to win. 14-2, and their over-under is 12-1⁄2, and there's an extra game.

But you're right. Everyone's gunning for them. I see 12-5, which should be-under is 12-1⁄2, and there's an extra game. But you're right. Everyone's gunning for them. I see 12-5, which should be plenty enough to win the division, but I still like them under. Plus, they have the Broncos week 18. Warren Sharp pointed this out because he liked the Broncos over, too. And it's like that week 18 is against the Chiefs. That'll be a tough game.

Well, it actually might not be. That might be the game where the Chiefs rest everyone on the team. So the Chiefs could be 12-4 going into that last game. Well, it actually might not be. That might be the game where the Chiefs rest everyone on the team. So the Chiefs could be 12-4 going into that last game. They've got the division wrapped up, and then nobody plays, and they could finish 12-5. Well, that's the thing. I mean, we had it last year, but there's only one bye now. So maybe

that week 17, I forgot to even look at it. Or week 18, as it is now, you do start. You put your starters in there because you have less of a lock on the conference maybe the bills are also 12 i don't know yeah i like it under vegas six and a half i went under just because their schedule was terrifying me and uh and somebody's got to be bad in this division but i think every year we have that frisky 6-10 team, 5-11 team,

that couple breaks, it could have been much better. It feels like it's them this year. I could see them at 6-11, 5-12, but they led 10 games in the fourth quarter and only won two of them. They have that kind of vibe to me. I'll tell you what. The Raiders are a playoff team. Wow!

Las Vegas Raiders. I have three playoff teams from each west division the NFC and the AFC the Raiders make the case let's hear it this is it well first of all Gruden needs to turn it around right he's 19 and 29 they gave him 40 million dollars they started off six and three right there was something weird with them and they lose the one score games I think they're on the other end of the one score games. They went two and five down the stretch. They only had one winning record in 18 years. Yeah, they have a tough schedule. They had Drake, they had John Brown, they had Snead. I know people don't like Leatherwood, but they scored at least 30 points in eight games. And their defense,

Gus Bradley, I think they're good. I really think five of their six defensive, uh, were, uh, their, uh, draft picks were defensive players. I like them. This is great. They're going, they're winning nine games. So I have the chargers in your Raiders spot. I have them winning nine also. I think they make the playoffs.

I think that I have the chargers at 11. So basically the same logic. So we both think there's going to be a good team coming out of this division. That's not Kansas city. I think the Chargers are going to be excellent. They check a lot of my boxes. The really good rookie now in his second year. I always feel like that second year leap is sitting there.

I like their draft. The new coach, how many wins is Staley going to be worth? Staley was fucking awesome on the Rams. Like that was the guy. I couldn't wait to see him as a head coach. There's a lot of pressure. He is the favorite. How is he the favorite to win coach of the year?

There's not a lot of pressure. I know. There's a lot of buzz. He's not paying attention to the odds probably. I don't think he knows. I have him nine and eight. I know. Everyone's darling. You're going to compete with the Chiefs. I think it's legit. I think it's like Browns and Bills last year where sometimes

it's like, look, this team's going to be good. We can try to zag the other way, but this team has a lot of talent and they're going to be good. And they have a really good quarterback. Good coach, good quarterback. I'm in. Do they have a good holder? Because their kicker sucks every year. They have a new kicker. So you see they have a new guy. No, but do they have a new holder? Because

that's a guy that's bad. I think that's a whole thing. You see they have a new guy. No, but do they have a new holder? Because that's the guy that's bad. I think that's the guy that really screws them, the holder on the team. Yeah, I would just say that they're a 9 and 18. Look, you look at the schedule and you give everyone's wins and losses and you go Kansas City home for the Raiders. Like, all right, that's going to be a win. Like, Chargers home for the Raiders.

Like, oh, I could see them winning that and blowing it. I just don't like the one score game. You're scarred emotionally from the years of weird Chargers shit. They've lost 31 games by one score in the last five years. What about the fact that they have no home field advantage whatsoever? That's not good either. You look up

and there's everyone else's jersey in the crowd. We'll go to a Chargers game this year. I think we will. Week two, Cowboys. Oh, you're going to that one? I think so, yeah. Yep. Well, that'll be great. That'll be good for the pod.

That's a night game, right? I think we're going to have to do that from the street or something. It's not a night. The Vegas one's a night one. Oh, right. The Vegas one. Okay. Yeah.

So we got through them all? Did we do? We got through them all. So what's your single favorite over under? Raiders? Well, I mean, if you go by my lunatic, it's the Raiders and the Falcons both over, I like. Mine is the Pats.

Which we'll get to in part two. So, we're going to go to a part two. Do we have to do a part two? You talk about the Patriots. We're going to do a quick million dollar picks. Futures, our favorite futures are mine and you chip in a couple. Then guess the lines.

You're 15 and then a little parent corner and you chip in a couple. All right. Then guess the lines. You're 15. And then a little parent corner and we're good to go. Part one was produced by Kyle Crane. We'll see you in part two. It will be up right after this one. I don't have a few years with him on the wayside on the front side

never I don't have a few years