The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 1: NFL Draft Trade Predictions, QB Bust Tendencies, and New England’s Big Moment With Benjamin Solak

Episode Date: April 24, 2024

In Part 1 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Benjamin Solak to discuss possible NFL draft trade candidates, including the Patriots, Cardinals, Chargers, Broncos, Titans, and more. They also get into reasons why QBs fail, draft pick speculation, and more! Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Benjamin Solak Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, a special two-parter. This is part one, the NFL draft next. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this.

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It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller L Lights today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey.

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They're all on Prime. Prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on Prime. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did Hardcore. It was the last episode of Rock Bottom Month. Controversial Month. Controversial movie. Amazing movie. Kind of a super funny movie. Also a super depressing movie. And Sean Fennessey and

Chris Ryan and I, we broke all of it down. You can watch it eventually on youtube.com slash Bill Simmons as well. Very, very entertaining podcast. Also had a good time on that YouTube channel. Me and Rosillo, we went live on Sunday night. We might do that a couple more times as basketball playoffs keep going and going and going here. Speaking of the basketball playoffs,

I'm doing some boosts on FanDuel during the playoffs. I'm on a hot streak, can't lie. We've, knock on wood, but we've been doing pretty well. And I'm going to have one either Wednesday or Thursday. Stay tuned. We're going to boost something, something from the Wednesday or Thursday game. So there you go. Okay. So part two of this podcast is coming later tonight. It's me and Kevin O'Connor reacting off the Tuesday night games and also talking about the incredible, incredible, incredible Monday night doubleheader that we had as well. Part one, Ben Solak from the Ringer. I hope you're reading the Ringer's excellent NFL draft guide or listening to the excellent Ringer NFL draft show, which is live in Detroit this week. But Ben and I, we talked about

trade up teams, trade-down teams, what to look for to go wrong with a quarterback. Are there specific rules of that? And who he likes with the quarterbacks and a whole, whole bunch of stuff. Really good combo. We're going to bring in our friends who just had a new album come out.

That's right. Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this on Tuesday morning where the 2024 NFL Draft has just thrown my life into an absolute tizzy, Ben Solak. You're working for the Ringer. You're writing mock draft stuff for us. You're part of the Ringer NFL Draft Show and the Philly Special with Sheil.

Where does this rank on craziest drafts that you've covered since you've started doing this? Oh, man. I mean, like, I don't think it's 21, where we had, you know, we were expecting quarterbacks 1, 2, 3. We thought five quarterbacks would go top 15. There's Trevor and Zach Wilson and Trey Lance with a 9 is going to do it at 3.

I don't think it's that, but it's just a level below that. And if we get a Vikings trade up to 4 in the next 30 minutes, if we get a, hey, the Giants moved up to three, right? In two hours, then like, yeah, it'll start to reach that level. The one thing we're missing right now is the sell the farm trade. And once we get the sell the farm trade, all of our chips in the middle for some team, Vikings, Broncos, Giants, whoever it is, then I think it'll reach that level. So yeah, this is a fun one. Well, I'm nervous because we're not running this pod for another 12 hours. And God help us.

That's very dangerous this time of year. Yeah. Yeah. I did a little thing. I did a YouTube short yesterday because I was walking around so frustrated by the Pats, the information that Jonathan Kraft might be running the draft. But I was thinking there's three types of teams. I'll just do what I did in the short.

Three types of teams that either do the trade up or trade down. And the first one is like where the Chargers are at right now, where it's just Harbaugh took over. He's going to be there for half a decade. It's a marathon, not a sprint. You got the fifth pick. They have 37, 69, 105, 110. Maybe you could move back a few spots, still get your left tackle or your receiver and just try to build something for Herbert. So that's kind of where you want to be if you're rooting for a team

where it's like, all right, this guy, this is a marathon, not a sprint. The second type of team is the Minnesota type of situation, which is like there's some urgency, but it's kind of a fun urgency, right? You want to get a quarterback. We have some good players.

We weren't bad last year. We can move up, but it's not out of desperation. And then there's the third type of team where the guys who are running it might not be there in a year. The coach might not be there in a year. To me, that's a team like the Giants where it's like, we got to do something. Just getting receivers isn't enough.

Where are we going to be? What if Danny Dimes is bad? We're all getting fired. And those are the most dangerous teams around the trade as we head to the draft. I don't know where the Patriots rank out of those three. I don't know if they're desperate. I don't know if this is a marathon

not a sprint. I just can't figure it out. You don't care about the Patriots. You're just watching this from afar. What do you think their strategy is? Yeah, and it's funny because in March, I would have told you I don't think they were like a marathon, not a sprint team. They were like a 10K, not a sprint team.

They probably didn't have the five years to mess around, but they had like, okay, it seems like all right, John Mayo has been the guy they wanted for a while. Like they have a 5K, right? They have a couple of years. They got a little bit of time. And then, right, you start to get the whole hey, we didn't give Elliot Wolfe them title and the owner might be running the draft room and once you hear that you're like oh my god well we are not supposed to have hierarchy this

way it the the patriots under belichick were a long time a an exception that proved the rule but in general like a healthy organization has a gm that runs the draft room and has a head coach that runs the day-to-day and has an owner to whom those people report. And like that, that, that structure is a good structure. It works when it's healthy.

There's, there's a little bit of a dynamic equilibrium, but it works right now. The Patriots, they haven't been in that structure in ages. And it, I thought maybe they were stepping into that structure and increasingly it's looking like they're not.

And this team needs to learn how to just have a head coach, just head coach things. And a GM who does GM things, and an owner who does owner things. You need that trio of kind of competing, but still towards the Super Bowl interest. You kind of need that dynamic equilibrium. And so with New England, they are, without question, the hardest team to peg this year

in terms of what they are going to do and why they are going to do it. So maybe there's a fourth type of team, which is the, that team's a mess. We don't know what the F they're going to do. They just might be in their own category. And I don't even know if anyone's in that category. I wanted to talk about move up teams and move down teams

because I do feel like we're going to have some traits. So we'll go move down teams first. We just talked about the Pats. They have three and 34 and 68 and 103. The Minnesota package is just being dangled all over the place. It's almost like you get a free order of chicken wings and two slices of pizza if you take their offer. Minnesota has 11 and 23. They clearly want to get a QB. They're not going to get whoever they want at number 11. What is the fair price for you for them to trade up to number three or number four?

Like whether they're like Drake Mayer, whether they're like McCarthy, Arizona's at four. So they have 11 and 23. It's got to be more than that. I think their 25 first has to be involved because I'm moving back. I'm not getting three picks. I'm getting two because I'm moving back eight spots. So that's one of the picks. So basically I'm just getting number 23 and your first next year to move back eight spots. I want more than that. So what's more, what's fair to you? Yeah. So when the Niners

moved up for Trey Lance, they moved up from 12 to three and they sent this year's first, next year's first, the following year's first, as well as a future third, right? So three ones plus a three. That was 12 to three. This year, it's 11 to three. It's not that big. Yeah, but the Niners executed that trade well before draft week, and there wasn't as much competition,

right? They got ahead of the market. They secured through overall, and everybody knew what one was going to be and knew that a quarterback was going to go at two. We obviously, we know what one's going to be. We know a quarterback was going to go at two. We obviously, we know what one's going to be. We know a quarterback is going to go at two, but this year started talking about three and four. There's a lot more buyers, Minnesota, right? You have the Broncos at 12 who are willing to do something crazy. The Raiders at 13, they're willing to do something crazy. The Giants at six present a huge obstacle for the Vikings because you got to get up to three, four, or five. You

have to get into that range. You can't wait. Oh, maybe he falls to seven. The Giants might stay there and take a guy. So to me, if I'm Monty Osipor, I'm the GM of the Cardinals, and Quessie, the GM of the Vikings, calls me asking for four overall, I say three first and a three. I want the Niners deal. And I'm probably putting the screws to you a little bit more. And I think that's why we haven't had a trade done yet. Because there is a lot of leverage in the hands of the Cardinals at four, the Chargers at five, excuse me, and even the Patriots at three if they want to get involved. They have a ton of leverage over the Vikings right now. And every day that this inches towards the draft, every day that we get closer, it makes me more scared for Minnesota. Why hasn't a deal gotten done yet? Who else is competing with them? I'm asking for three first

and a third. I'm asking for the Trey Lance deal. So don't you think part of the reason the deal hasn't been done yet is because people can't get a handle on who Washington's going to take? I feel like there's probably some pocket deals, but it all hinges on where Washington goes. And there's been so much confusion. Like we're taping this again, Tuesday morning. Jaden Daniels is down minus 390

to be the second pick on FanDuel. But that dropped to like minus 125 at one point over the weekend. It's been a rollercoaster ride. And believe me, Ben Solak, I've been watching the rollercoaster every moment. There was a moment where it seemed like Drake May was going to be the second pick.

You feel like Drake May is going to be the second pick. I think that he's got a better chance than the market currently projects. I think right now, if you put Watergun to my head and maybe put my life on a guy, I think I'd probably have taken Jaden. That's my guess. And I put Watergun to my head and maybe put my life on a guy, I think I probably am taking Jaden. That's my guess. And I put Drake May in my mock draft on Monday.

I wrote it on Sunday. We're talking on Tuesday. I talked to a couple people on Monday that made me believe it was a little bit more Jaden, right? So that's kind of how this process is going. But what I do think is that with the amount of emphatic belief that we've gotten from national reporters, oh, every team thinks the commanders are taking Jaden at two. If that information

were getting into the market, if sharp bettors had Jaden at two to the commanders, this line wouldn't be minus 390. It'd be minus 3,900. Like this line would be flying. We saw that last year, right? One dude says,

hey, like Will Levis is going two to the Texans and the money just starts to come in and come in and come in, right? And so the fact that this market's only moved a little bit and not too much indicates to me that nobody in the betting space has a degree of confidence

as to who's going to the commanders. That's not to say Jaden Daniels isn't going. See, usually once a guy's locked in, sharp bettors sniff it out within 24 hours. Usually sharp bettors have a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy and they get the information. And so to me, this is still open. The fact that the strongest endorsement of Jaden Daniels

we've gotten to this point is just, oh, the other teams think he's going to? That does not clear the bar for me as, okay, I definitely believe this is happening. I'm still suspicious. In the next segment, we're going to talk about quarterbacks really quick and just about what you want if you're spending a top three pick on a quarterback.

It is interesting to me, though. It's not like they've been trying to win Jaden Daniels over. I thought how they handled bringing all the quarterbacks in last week was pretty strange. If they felt like Jaden Daniels was the guy, why wasn't it a little more red carpet-y? I just thought that was weird. You mentioned the Trey Lance trade. The other doppelganger for the type of trade to move up would be what

Chicago did last year with Carolina where Chicago moves back from 1 to 9. They get a 1 and a 2 this year, which turned out to be the number one pick, and they got DJ Moore. And that feels like less than the

Trey Lance trade, but people also didn't like last year's draft as much. It feels like less that feels like less than the trade Lance trade but people also didn't like last year's draft as much it feels like I would say people probably like the Daniels May combo it feels like a whiff more than last year's quarterbacks you think that's fair yeah absolutely I definitely think so and yeah the other thing about that

trade that is challenging is the DJ more of it all because what exactly is DJ more worth like whenever you trade a mid second rounder, high second rounder, somewhere in there. And that's what I would have told you at the time. I would have been like, I guess like he's kind of a proxy for another one, but I really kind of think of him as more of like an early two.

And then he had a better season for Chicago than I thought he would. Okay, maybe my estimation of DJ Moore was lower than it should have been. You see the deals that get signed by more wide receivers and you go, oh, maybe getting a guy who already signed his deal and his signing bonus already belongs to the Panthers. Maybe that's part of it. The DJ Moore of it all is a little bit of a moving target. Whenever players get involved in draft day trades,

man, it's hard to riddle out. What do you think Iuke's worth? Do you think the Patriots could get Iuke for the 34th pick? Because San Francisco, I think they have 31. So you could say for them, they would have 31 and 34. Obviously, take a receiver with one of those.

You'd save the money that you're not paying Iuke because you're already paying Debo, you're already paying Kittle, you're already paying McCaffrey. But it feels like he's worth maybe 10 spots higher than that. Because I think Iuke's really good. To me, he should be in the 20 to 22 range if I'm trading a pick for him. But maybe the Pats could get him for that. Because I think Iuk's really good. To me, he should be in the 20-22 range if I'm trading a pick for him. But maybe the Pats could get him for that. I don't

know. I don't think you're moving them off Iuk for 34. Even if you could say, oh, he's only worth 34. The way that John Lynch is playing this and talking about this, he's presenting that the 49ers are extremely reticent to move Iuk, that they expect to get a deal done with Iuk. So whether that's gamesmanship or reality, it's going to take a lot, I think, to move the Niners off expect to get a deal done with Iuke. So whether that's gamesmanship or reality,

it's going to take a lot, I think, to move the Niners off of Iuke. You go and you look at the A.J. Brown trade, the Eagles sent 18 straight for A.J. Brown and then signed him to a big deal immediately following. When the Ravens sent Marquise Brown to the Cardinals, they sent Brown and a third to get the 23rd overall

pick, right? So you're kind of looking at, alright, the deals have typically involved, right, that late teens, early 20 pick. Obviously, Baltimore sent a decent pick as well with Marquise Brown. So yeah, I'm thinking Iyuk is like 23 straight up, right? 24 straight up.

And then if you're doing 34, you've got to include probably more on top of that to get the 49ers done. But I don't think the 49ers want the optics of, we traded Brandon Iyuk for two seconds. I think they would want to see a pick that's got like a two in front of it. They want to pick in 49ers done. But I don't think the 49ers want the optics of we trade a brand new for two seconds. I think they would want

to see a pick that's got like a two in front of it. They want to pick in the first round. Red. So that could be I'm looking. That'd be an interesting

Packers trade. I'm not sure they're traded with them. Yeah, there's not really a fit for that. More trade down teams. So Arizona for you mentioned they have four,

27, 35, 66, 71, and 90, just out of the top 90 picks. And if they went backwards and also got 11 and 23 and Minnesota stuff, if that was the Minnesota trade, man, that would be good. Or maybe the Giants move up two spots and throw them something else for their troubles and they still get the receiver they want. I guess the question for me is, is the difference in Marvin Harrison and the other two top receivers that significant that it's not worth McCarthy going in that four spot? Because McCarthy on FanDuel, he's plus 400 right now. And I just feel like he's going to go four. And I don't know how it's going to happen,

but somebody is going to move into that spot because even if you say whether this is, what do you think, 11 players, 12 players drop off, right? 10 players, 11. It's somewhere between 10 and 12 depending on who you like. Once you have the four quarterbacks, you have the three receivers, you have Brock Bowers, then it depends on how many top

tackles you have and how you feel about the defensive players. I'd probably put it like, yeah, about 11 because I like all 11. Yeah, somewhere 11, then you know somebody will take some defensive player five spots higher than he should go so then maybe that pushed it 13 so if you're arizona you could move back six seven spots and still feel like oh we're still getting a blue chipper plus we're getting more picks we're trying to rebuild our team i just don't people seem like i know everybody loves harrison but i don't... People seem... I know everybody loves Harrison, but I don't think people feel like

he's going to be one of the best three receivers in the NFL at any point in his career. I haven't heard that. Have you? Yeah, I don't think people talk about him like that. I think the main reason why people don't talk about him

like that is because Malik Nabors is so good and because Rome is so good. And so if you say, man, all three of these guys are great. Oh, and also I think Marv can be a top five guy. Then you're kind of implying, Hey, Malik and Rome might be top five guys. And that point you're just, you're too high on, on the top three receivers, right?

There's just too much gas. This is a really, really, really, really good top three wide receiver group. In any given draft, Malik neighbors is the first receiver off the board. Roma Dunes is the first receiver off the board. Like if you took, if you look back at that 22 class that had like Drake London and Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams, I would have had Roman Dunes, Malik neighbors,

Marvin Harrison, all of them as the first receiver graded in that group. Like this top three is a truly like elite of the lead. You said the word blue chipper. It is a blue chip group. This is, this is the cream of the crop. That's why for the Cardinals are very interesting.

Cause I agree. The Cardinals should look at a tradeback, but I wouldn't want to move back too far. Because right now, who's the third best player on the Cardinals? They have a lot of C-tier level talent, average level talent. They've done a good job scraping

it together, finding guys in the margins, day three picks, and free agents from other teams. In terms of impact guys, guys who might be one of the best at their position. Like Kyler's like fringe top 10 quarterback. They have Paris Johnson, who's a growing young tackle, right?

He's great as a rookie on the right side. And they have Buda Baker, who's been a good safety for them. Other than that, they don't have like dudes who dominate, dudes who decide on Sunday, I'm winning this ball game and then do. And they moved off the Will Anderson pick last year,

go and get Paris Johnson, accumulate some picks. That was good business, but at some point you have to stop sending the buck into the future and you have to stay and draft some impact players. The Cardinals roster doesn't need picks 38 and picks 76 and picks 54. The Cardinals roster needs pick 6, then you pick 4. That's the sort of

player they need right now. They need a blue chip guy, a field-tilting, high-gravity individual. And so if they move all the way back from four to 11 or four to 12 or make that big leap, I'll be curious to see if they stay or if they try to hop back up into the top 10 like they did last year

with the Paris Johnson deal because this team needs blue chippers. They need that elite player. Well, you're speaking my blue chip language. You know, I love the blue chippers. That's what I do all summer is try to figure out blue chippers and pink chippers.

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Arizona and the Giants flipping picks. The Giants have 6 and 47 and 70. Is 6 and 47 and maybe like a third rounder next year enough to jump two spots? And if you're Arizona, I'm still getting a receiver. Plus now I'm getting 47. Yeah, so when the Jets traded up from six to three

to go get Sam Darnold, this was in the 2018 NFL draft, they sent six to this year's second rounders and then a future second rounder. So the price to move up from six to three was three second rounders total. So when you start talking about six to four, and again, I'm talking about a high desire draft pass.

I'm talking about, hey, I'm draft pass. I'm talking about, Hey, I'm on the phone with the giants, but I'm telling you, I've got Minnesota area codes on this line. I've got Denver area codes on that line. Everybody wants to see Vegas. It's getting super aggressive. Yeah.

Uh, I'd like to get multiple. Okay. We'll start with, with, with, you know, we're looking at three twos of that previous framework.

I'm going to try to get twos in a one, right? I'm going to try to get multiple picks off you at least a one, at least a two, and then probably a third pick as well. I think you can jack the price up. I think there's a lot of leverage right now if you're that trade-back team.

But hold on, though. That's where it gets scary if you're a Giants fan. Because if you're running the Giants, you're like, hey, man, if McCarthy doesn't hit, we're all out of here anyway. So, yeah. Maybe we'll trade next year's first and sixth to move up to four. And that's always the thing.

As the GM of the Vikings, Quessie, expects to be the guy picking with his first round pick next year. He's probably going to keep his job. The same is true of George Payton with the Broncos. George Payton kind of isn't running that draft room with Sean Payton, but still. Even after the Russell Wilson trade,

he's still going to keep his job. But if Sean Payton wants that job next year, and I think Sean's kind of the guy who's more running the draft room, he's going to be there to make that pick. Raiders at 13. They just hired Tom Telesco. He's going to be there to make that pick. If you're Joe Shane with the Giants at six, you're a little bit less confident that you're going to be the guy there making

that pick next year. And so once you start to feel that heat as a GM, start spending next year's picks. Because either it's your problem to figure out next year, or it's somebody else's problem to figure out next year because you don't have the job anymore. And so I do think, right, the Giants, if I were the Giants right now and I felt like I could move the Patriots off of three for like, you know, a huge upcharge of 125%, 130% of what it should be, I still might do it just to get control of the draft, just to be in charge and not have to worry

about making the draft day trades. And that's why I say, every day that a trade doesn't get done, I feel more worried for the Vikings. Because I'm just like, man, you guys, you have the two first job picks this year. You've been very clear for two months. You want to trade up.

You feel like you've been in pole position this whole time. So why hasn't the bell rung? Why haven't you crossed the finish line? What are we waiting for here? And so I'm worried for the Vikings for that reason. I do think the Giants have a good reason to get aggressive trying to move up and be the team that gets their quarterback.

Well, I wonder if you're the Pats at three, could you get the Giants, the six pick, their first next year, and also get like 47 or a third first? I wonder what the price is just to move three spots to get into that top three territory. Because the other piece of this is there's been a lot of Vegas Daniels buzz.

You know, just anecdotally, people are like, Vegas loves Daniels. Daniels would be amazing. Daniels doesn't really go to Washington. Yeah, Antonio Pierce, who's the head coach of the Raiders now, was at Arizona State when they recruited Jaden Daniels. So he recruited Jaden back in the day when he was a boy.

Yeah. Right. So Vegas has 13, 44, 77, 112, and then they're first for the next couple of years. And it's like, what's their godfather offer? The problem with them at 13 is now you're moving out of that top 11, that top 12, and it gets a little dicey if you're three or four. It's like, I'm going back to 13. Am I even going to get one blue chipper? What am I getting out of this? So it's almost like Vegas has to do two deals.

The other thing is, so New England could rig it. So they get, let's say Minnesota's like, all right, 25 and 26 first, 11 and 23 to move up to three. And the Pat's like, we got to do that. Yeah, sure. So they make that trade, and then they use all that capital to try to move back to get to four if they like McCarthy as much or more than May.

Is it feel the other way? That's the other way this could go where the Pats trade back and then they trade 80% of what they got to move back to four, keep the extra 20% and they got McCarthy anyway. That's my fear is that they like McCarthy more than May and they're going to try to get super smart the same way we would if we were just having dinner. What if we move back? Almost like fantasy baseball. We'll move back. Then we'll

move back up. It's not easy to do. You got to have the second half done when you do the first half. That's typically what you'd like to be the case. We talked about that Trey Lance deal. We got to remember, when the Dolphins moved back, they moved back from 3-12,

and then they immediately moved back up from 12. I think they went to 6-8, and they went and got Jaylen Waddell. They had the second half tied up before they pulled the trigger on the first half. Then you go and you look at the Cardinals last year, when they moved back off of Will Anderson and then moved forward from Parrish Johnson, they did that on draft night.

And so that's where you get that, right? That super cut, that four and a half minute highlight reel of Monty Austin for it. Got six phones. Jonathan Gannon's watching him like, oh, this is crazy. Which we're a little bit hype-beasting Monty Austin for it too much.

We're just like calling people. But in general, like it is higher stakes when you've got to do it on draft night when the bullets are live. And so good on Monty to pull that off. It is challenging to do. You kind of want to have the second half in place. You mentioned pocket deals earlier.

I can't imagine how many pocket deals there are right now. Conditional on what happens at two and what happens at three. And you feel good about a, hey, like Arizona told us, you know, if it's Jane at two as we expect and it's May at three as we expect,

like three first, we'll move up to four. It's JJ McCarthy. He's a Viking. Great. Like you feel good if you can say that in the room, but a lot happens between now and then, and you can't fully believe

it until you see it. So yeah, the Bullets are going to fly on draft night in the top 10. If we get a chalky first hour of the NFL draft where the trades that happen are the ones we expect and the players go where we go, I'll be flabbergasted. There are too many dark horses. There's too many trade-back teams. There's too many trade-off

teams. Something's going to break. It's going to be a weird night. Well, especially if the Raiders tell the Pats, hey, if Dane falls to three, this is on the table right now. Our first, and we'll give next year's first, and first after that.

Let's take a break. I want to talk about a couple more move down teams, and then I want to throw a giant quarterback there at you. The road to the NBA finals starts now, my friends. New customers on FanDuel can go on their own playoff run with 150 bucks. Just place any $5 bet, and you'll get $150 in bonus bets,

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who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists, one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures, one specially developed helmet, All right, move down teams. Arizona at four, we mentioned. Chargers at five. They have 537, 69, 105, and 110. They're kind of like, can we just get somebody good?

I don't even think it really matters. They need receivers. They need a tackle. Could they go back from five to nine? Like if Chicago says to themselves, man, we're, we're locked and loaded now let's go up and get one of the three best receivers.

We don't feel like we're, we're all three of them might be gone by the time it gets to nine. We'll just move up to five with the chargers, give them some other stuff and try to lock down the second best receiver in the group. I'd feel the same way for Tennessee at seven. They have seven 38, one Oh six.

And everybody has them just taken like Joe alt or some left tackle. They could move back to spots with Chicago, pick up some stuff, let Chicago take the third receiver. Um, would you consider Atlanta at number eight, a move down team or a stay put team? They have eight 43,

74, 79 and one Oh nine. And if they take 843, 74, 79, and 109. And if they take another receiver, they should probably take the team away. They just can't. You can't take another receiver. You can't. You shouldn't be allowed.

But anyone else in there, like, what do they do? That's another team I just can't figure out. Yeah, Terry Fontenot, this will be his fourth draft as the GM of the Falcons. In the first three, he's made all top 10 picks,

picked at 4, 8, and 8, and he's picked a tight end, a wide receiver, and a running back. That, plus the contracts they put into the offensive line, and then the Kirk Cousins deal, this offense is supposed to be very good, according to the numbers, according to the money spent and the picks spent, which high expectations in Atlanta,

who, by the way, have not won a playoff game, made the playoffs in the last eight seasons. So to me, I expect this to be defense because of the amount of resources that have been put into the offense. Accordingly, I think they're a tradeback team because there isn't really a player, a defensive player in this class. We're like, oh, yeah, for sure. Bonafide top 10 pick. Go ahead and send it. You take Byron Murphy here, the defensive tackle out of Texas.

I don't think I think I browse will raise. I don't think anybody will be like offended or flabbergasted. You take the top edge, whether that's Dallas turnout of Alabama or UCLA, the lot to again, I think people will be surprised. I don't think people would be shocked. We have to remember the latest that the first defensive player has ever

come off the board in the NFL draft 2021 JC Horn eighth overall pick and that's what the Falcons are picking right now. And I'm telling you one through seven is offense. If a defensive player goes one through seven, I will be astonished. So if the Falcons move out of this pick, because someone's trying to get in front of the Bears at nine,

to go get a wide receiver, get in front of the Jets at 10, to go get a wide receiver, go get a tackle, then this would be the latest the first defensive player has ever come off the board. But if you're the Falcons, and you like two or three defensive guys, it's a reasonable expectation that you can move

from eight to 13, right? Move from eight to 15. And one of those guys will still be available for you. So I very much expect the Falcons to be at least looking at the tradebacks

because there's a chance that the guy they take at eight, they can just get at 14 anyway. You've been known to gamble on a couple of things time to time in your day. Yeah, you've placed one or two wagers.

On Fandle right now, the Cardinals are plus 180 to trade their pick, and the Chargers are plus 280 to trade their pick. And I'm trying to figure out why you wouldn't just make both of those bets. And you're going to at least get one and possibly two. But basically, 100 to win 180 on the Cardinals or 100 to win 280 on the Chargers.

So you could lose 200 potentially, or you win 80 or you win 180. I don't think there's any scenario where both of those teams keep their picks. I don't see it. Yeah, I agree. I think that would be very surprising. I also am surprised that the Chargers

are considered less likely to trade their pick than the Cardinals. The Cardinals have done a really clear job in terms of getting the message out to the media. Like, hey, if we have to stay at four and take Marvin Harrison, we will be throwing a party.

We will be popping confetti in here. We are thrilled about that. Which, again, some of that is gamesmanship. That's what you want the Vikings and the Raiders are ready to believe. But I also do believe

there's veracity to that. I do. Because like I said, I think they need blue chippers. The Chargers at five. The Chargers have just a desolate roster with a horrible

cap situation. This team is in such desperate need. And remember like, oh, Jim Harbaugh's running the team, Michigan, whatever. Joe Ortiz is the GM. They're coming from Baltimore. Baltimore knows about a trade back now. Ortiz will understand what is valuable in the draft is having a lot of swings at the plate, especially when you're at a stage like the Chargers are where they just have

so many snaps to give young players and they just need development from everybody. There are, the Chargers have two players who are veterans, who are on veteran deals signed beyond 2025. It's Justin Herbert, all right, they have three.

It's Justin Herbert, Derwin James, and Will Disley. That's the team in 26. The team in 26 is Herbert throwing to Disley and Derwin James covering guys. Right, yeah. So they just need dudes. They need guys who are cheap under contract for future years.

They have like, you know, a couple of rookie receivers and truly two of the low two. They have some guys who are under contract, but it's nobody who you're thrilled about. So they need the bodies. I think the Chargers are as likely, if not a little bit more likely to trade the pick than the Cardinals would. So I agree with taking both. I think between the two, the Chargers at plus 280 is the one that I'm most interested in buying. Is it insane to say maybe it makes sense to buy J.J. McCarthy plus 400 as the fourth pick,

but also J.J. McCarthy plus 450 as the fifth pick? And just say J.J. McCarthy is going fourth or fifth in this draft because he's going to have the most value. And we've seen this happen too many times. And there's no way he's falling past five. So the J.J. McCarthy over under is under five and a half at minus 148. And so basically what you're looking at, because

you said it's plus 400 and plus 450. Technically right. Then yeah, I think doing the math quickly. You're betting that he's not going three. You're betting that he's two or three, right? That's what you're assuming that he's coming in under but you're not exposing yourself to two or three, which means you're really confident in McCarthy that he's coming in under, but you're not exposing yourself to two or three,

which means you're really confident in McCarthy or excuse me, you're confident in Daniels and May kind of being those picks. I would say if you're somebody who owns a Jason McCarthy to go two overall ticket at a really long price,

which I mean, I think a lot of people got over the course of the last couple of months. I know I have it. Then I'd be really inclined to, yeah, take a little bit of four, take a little bit of five instead of taking the under five and a half because you're just protected on two. But at the

same time, right now, figuring out the first four quarterbacks for me, it's so challenging and I'm exposed to it six different ways to Sunday. I don't want to wrap myself in so many bets with so much juice that I'm just losing money

no matter what happens. You start circling the drain a little bit. If you are trying to predict exact outcomes, that's where you go to the top three picks, exact order of the top five picks, exact order. And that's where you sprinkle your long shot stuff and you see if you get lucky there. One other trade down team, Denver at 12. They have 12.

They have 76. They have 121. That's it for picks. Yeah. You would do better consulting a Ouija board to figure out what the Broncos are doing at 12. But the thing is, if they're going to take Penix or Nix, if they really want to just get a quarterback out of this,

especially if they decide they like Bo Nix and everybody's been talking and writing about how he's like an ideal Sean Payton type of quarterback. Could he be, Lombardi was saying, could he be Andy Dalton? It's like, all right, Andy Dalton played in some playoff games. That's not a bad outcome.

But you don't need to take them at 12. And could they potentially trade back into the 20s, get them there, pick up some more picks? I just feel like that's a trade down team. Trade up teams, again, Chicago at nine, I think, is a team that has to move up. If they decide we want one of these receivers, I think they have to move up at least a couple spots. Minnesota at 11, we mentioned 11, 23, 108, 129, their picks.

Vegas, we mentioned. The only other team I had as a possible trade up team. What about the Green Bay Packers? Oh, yeah? What about them picking 25, 41, 58, 88, 91 and dangling one of the receivers they already have with some of those picks with 25 and trying to get in that top 10 to get an absolute blue chipper, right? Could Jaden Reed in the 25th pick and 41 and 58 to move

to like six so you can end up with neighbors? Does that make any sense to you or you think Green Bay just takes picks? I think whenever you have the bird in the hand, which Jaden Reed is not Malik neighbors, but you know he can do something. You've seen him play. That's always the scary part of it, right? Is that we do this and neighbors just

misses, right? Neighbors just pops as Achilles on day one of training camp. Like it's not just that we traded picks, that we traded a player that we could have done something with, right?

So the bird in the hand thing always takes a little bit of the wind out of the sails whenever teams want to execute these trades. Because we don't usually see trades like that. In the NBA,

we see trades like that. In the NFL, we don't. Where it's like, here's a player who's worth this. Here's some picks. We're going to move up and we're going to grab this. I guess DJ Moore was the only time that's happened yeah and I think the the the argument I would make for why that happens is GM stability which I think in

the NBA you probably feel like you have a better chance of holding onto the job for a longer period of time or at least selling an owner on a longer time frame of like hey I'm gonna do this over the course of several years than you do in the NFL where I think think GMs turn over a little bit quicker. But that's just my assumption. I don't know for sure if GMs actually have that substantially longer of a lifespan in the NBA. But I'm inclined to think the Packers wouldn't want to go as big of a deal up front

of the top three, as opposed to looking around in the early teens, mid-teens, or wherever Brian Thomas ends up going, and saying, okay, are we able to go and get him and be aggressive there? Gudkunst, who's the GM of the Packers, is an aggressive trade-up guy.

He moves around in the first round. They moved up for Jair Alexander. They moved back, then they moved up for Jair. They moved up for Christian Watson. They moved up for Jordan Love. They have historically moved up for their guys early in the draft. If a Packers measurable dude is falling, the Packers only draft big guys.

The Green Bay Beat has the Packers draft board nailed every single year because they have such clear measurables that they look for. So if an Amarius Mims is falling, if a Graham Barton is falling, these are the sort of players that the Packers are going to be targeting. Terry and Arnold fits their needs and their athletic thresholds. Then yeah, Packers trading up is never a big surprise for me. Packers and Eagles are the two teams in the 20s who are always willing to trade up in the first round.

The funniest would be if the Packers took Penix at 25 and people were just like, no, not again! Why? Are you expecting Penix to be around one guy? Are you buying it? I'm very suspicious of it. I just don't think enough teams need quarterbacks.

First five picks of day two, I think those last two guys go because the over-under is four and a half, right? Yeah. I was heavily juiced to the under early. It is now losing some of that juice because Penix is over-under. It's been placed at 32 and a half with juice

to the under. Right now, let's see what FanDuel has Penix at. Panix is at FanDuel over under 32.5. The under is minus 270. FanDuel is telling you there's like a 78, 82% chance that Michael Panix is going in the first round. Not for me. That's crazy to me because of the surgical

stuff. We had this in basketball 20 years ago with Brandon Roy when his knees were bad and ended up going 7th. Maybe 6 maybe sixth or seventh, somewhere in there. And people were like, look, it's going to be a great pick short term, but long term, this guy won't be able to play basketball. And that's what happened. He had like a five-year career and he was awesome.

He left it. The Pennix stuff, he's already had so much stuff happen to him. You're almost like, it's like when you draft running backs and you're like, we just want to get four years out of this guy and move on everything after like four years with him feels like it would be a bonus for me because of how bad his knees are i don't know it would just make me nervous it feels like the 30s would be a better spot for him here's here's always my here's my philosophy on first round quarterbacks if a guy's going to go in the first round the league figures it out by January.

By January, we were getting Jane Daniels there as a JJ McCarthy. That was happening. Penix was on a team that played in the national championship game. Penix has been around in college football for six seasons. He has been known. The idea that in April of 2024, the league was like, hey, first round, Michael Penix?

I just don't buy it. Like, they would have already known, it would have already been established, he would have been up here since day one. And so for me,

like anytime it's a late breaking round one quarterback, I'm very suspicious of it. And so to me, this feels like a Henton Hooker. I'm glad we're aligned. Yeah.

The other thing, the red herring with him was the 4.6 speed at the combine because it's like, well, this guy didn't run in college. So what do I care

if he runs a 4.6? He rips off a 4.56 at the pro day. People are like, oh, he's an elite athlete. I'm like, dude, I watched him play. He doesn't run in college. So what do I care if he runs a 4.6? He riffs off a 4.56 at the pro day. People are like, oh, he's an elite athlete. I'm like, dude, I watched him play. He doesn't run. I don't know where this was. I don't see it with him.

Granted, I'm not a Mr. Quarterback judger, but there's some red flags with that. The body type, but then also the fact that he can't really move around. That one makes me nervous. Bo Nix, I could see him coming in and being poor men's Andy Dalton. But ultimately, I think we have four first-round quarterbacks. McCarthy, somebody had a tweet about him.

About 10th grade, 13-1, won the state championship. 11th grade, 13-1, lost the state championship. 12th grade, 8-0, won the national championship. Didn't start, 13 and one lost the state championship. 12th grade, eight and oh, won the national championship. Didn't start as a freshman at Michigan, 12 and one at the starters, sophomore, 15 and I was a junior, won the national championship. JJ McCarthy is a winner. He just wins football games. That's the narrative. You're a skeptical NFL analyst draft guy. Do you believe in narratives? Do you believe some people are just winners?

Yes, but I think it has a lot less impact. It matters a lot less than we like for it to, right? It's a little bit like momentum, where it's like, oh no, I'm positive momentum is real. I can feel it. It's in my lived experience of things. It is happening. Now, does the effect that it has on the outcome reflect

or is it proportional to its realness, its proximity to me, how much I feel it? Probably not, right? I think the fact that McCarthy has won so many games gives him a disposition towards playing football, especially down in the fourth quarter, divisional game, Monday Night Football game, primetime game, seven-point game.

He's made mistakes. There becomes a little bit of, Monday night football game, primetime game, seven point game. He's made mistakes. There becomes a little bit of a sense of ordination or preordination, right? Like, well, listen, I just win ballgames. Like, don't worry about it, right? There becomes an unbelievable, just a towering level of confidence that is good for a quarterback to have. You want your quarterback to feel immortal. You want your quarterback to feel like bullets would bounce off of him in those moments.

It's going to give him the confidence to make the plays you'd like for him to make. And so I do think that that like benefits McCarthy to have had that experience versus if you look at like okay, some of the experience that like a Drake may have this year at UNC where like that offensive line was terrible. He gets he's getting at David card a little bit where he's he's like, all right, like at any time

I might be getting demolished by a 300 pounder off my blind side off a second and a half into the play. Like our, our past experience kind of predicts our future experience and everything that we do. And certainly in playing quarterback now, McCarthy's a winner. He's always been a winner.

Yeah. I mean, if he goes, let's say he goes, forgive me, Bill to the Patriots at three with their roster. He ain't going to be a winner next year. Very much like that.

We don't have a left tackle or a decent receiver. So I don't know how many games he's winning. And so, and so, Oh, like McCarthy is a winner, but like, you know what? Probably impacts winning more. How good is a left tackle or a decent receiver, so I don't know how many games he's winning. And so, oh, McCarthy is a winner, but you know what probably impacts winning more? How good is your left tackle? That's still the thing that impacts winning more than kind of the mystique and the persona around the guy.

The funniest thing that could happen from a holy shit standpoint with this NFL draft is if the Chargers traded Herbert over the next 48 hours. Let's say the Chargers just traded Herbert to Washington for the number two pick and

got all the picks. Washington has so many picks. Holy shit, they did it. Then his endgame would be to end up with McCarthy and a bunch of picks and to sell on Herbert. I know you're laughing, but... No, I'm laughing because I agree.

The minute that Harbaugh went to owners meetings and said, Jason McCarthy is the best quarterback in the Spots. It did raise my attention. If I were Ryan Poles, I would have called Joe Ortiz that second. I would have been like, one for Herbert. Right. It's JJ McCarthy for Herbert, straight up. I would have been like one for Herbert. Right. It's JJ McCarthy for Herbert straight up. Right.

Because I'm giving you one. You go pick the guy. One for Herbert right now. And I guess you probably don't call Ortiz because Ortiz is the voice of reason. But maybe you call Jim if you've got Jim's number. Absolutely. I would do it. And then if I were, again, like no joke, 100% serious.

I'm Ryan Poles. The clock starts pick one overall. I got 10 minutes on the clock. I'm talking to my guys. I'm hanging out. We're so excited to pick Caleb. And then right before I send the pick in, I just go to a dark corner

where no one will see me and I call the Chargers. I say, are you sure? McCarthy for Herbert right now. And then they say no. And then I pick Caleb Williams and I feel amazing. And I make sure I don't tell anybody

that I did that. But absolutely, I'm calling that bluff. There's no cost and there's huge benefit. Oh, 100%. Well, let's talk this out. So Chargers trade Herbert for the number one pick. Then they have a second deal with Washington

where they move back one spot. And Washington has... Oh, Washington gets Caleb? Yeah, Washington gets Caleb. And Washington has a shitload of picks, right? They have... Two, 36, 40, yeah. 40, 67, 78, 100.

They have their first next year. It's like, hey, man, you want Caleb? Now you move back to two. This is some draft day nonsense. Oh, my God. I mean, this would be the most fun. It's like, oh, you really do think J.J. McCarthy is going to be a great quarterback.

You just fucking traded Justin Herbert. Holy shit. And I know, and I'm positive, and I'm certain, and I'm guaranteed that and I'm certain, and I'm guaranteed that Harbaugh's just talking because it's free and he's just saying it because it's not going to matter to him

and he has Herbert and who cares? He can say whatever he wants. He's going out for his guys. But for the slightest sliver of the possibility that he's crazy enough to do it, you make the call

and then you make the call again. Well, as we've discussed many times, can't remember a lot of great Justin Herbert moments so far. What are you trading? No, I know he's good. But it's like, you know, it would be funny. This would be, I think, out of all the things that could happen on draft day other than Chicago not taking Caleb Williams

and taking another quarterback, this would be the most jaw-dropping, shocking thing. Yeah, it does feel like a, you know, five years from now when Herbert has like, you know, bounced to two different teams and, you know, McCarthy's.

He's Jay Cutler. Yeah, McCarthy won an AFC championship game or whatever. There's going to be some sort of story written like a Harbaugh's biography where someone's going to have a story

about how he almost got so close to pulling the trigger and trading for McCarthy over Herbert and Ortiz in 11. So it does make the sort of thing that we learned about in 2032. So looking forward to that. I love those when the guys three, four years later, like I told my owner

and it's like, is there any evidence? Is there video of you telling him this? It's crazy how good I am at drafting once I know which players are good. I'm 100% hit rate once I know who's good or not. It's unbelievable how much I knew. I try to tell people. Alright, one more break

and then I have one more thing to do with you. Alright, so I've been saving this for you for two months. I did some real recon on this because my team has a top three pick and I've been really thinking about quarterbacks and what works and what doesn't work.

And a lot of people have done work on this. Russillo updates his thing every year. It's a 50-50. It's probably even 45% now that you're going to hit on your top pick. I used to feel like it was 50-50. I actually feel like the odds are probably worse. Look, situation is 80 percent of this, where you could take somebody who may have been really good, and he's just in the wrong spot, and one thing leads

to another, and you just watch a guy's confidence get shattered. I'll never know if Mac Jones is going to be a good quarterback. He's sloppy at the ball. He wasn't a good athlete. But there was a scenario with a different team, with a real offensive coordinator, with a QB coach, with a certain type of system where maybe he could have been Brock Purdy in the Niners. I don't know.

There's other guys that just aren't going to happen. So I'm leaving situation out of this. I'm going to give you the nine reasons why I think a quarterback will fail. Oh. Is this if he has one of the nine, he's done? He can survive it. Okay, okay.

But when he fails, it's usually at least one of these things, maybe more, maybe two, maybe three. First one, not a leader, unpopular. The Bo Callahan theory. Who came to his birthday party? Nobody. I feel like this kind of nailed Carson Wentz a little bit.

Yeah, he lost the room. You saw that with the Eagles, right? Kind of lost the room. It happens. It's a thing that happens. Right, and it's that plus, which I imagine is also on your list, right? Kind of lost the room. It happens. It's a thing that happens. Right. And it's that plus, which I imagine is also on your list, which is injury, right?

He got hurt. And so that plus losing the room is just you lose your juice, you lose your momentum. Yeah. So there's one. There's some Caleb Williams stuff that I think a lot of people

have alluded to and talked about it. Just like, hey, the quarterback's supposed to be the coolest, most charismatic guy on your team. Can he be a leader? Can he be the coolest guy? Can he be the coolest guy? Can he be the calming force? Or is he just a little bit enigmatic? Can you be an enigmatic, awesome quarterback?

There's some dialogue about it. Next one. Too sloppy. Sloppiness, I feel like, is the number one thing we overlook with quarterbacks. This was the Sam Darnold thing, right? You go back in college and look at Sam Darnold, just super sloppy and not just interceptions,

but fumbles, not, you know, not being able to basically protect the ball. Darnold had 27 college games. He had 14 fumbles and 20 interceptions in the 27 college games. And there was like a lot of people were writing about this when it happened.

There were some stats from 2007 to 2017. QBs with eight fumbles or more in their final college season. The list was RG3, Jamarcus Russell, Ponder, Jake Locker, Blake Bortles, and Blaine Gabbert. That's not a good list. I don't want to be on

that list. That's your final year. You had eight fumbles. Caleb had eight fumbles last year. He did 33 over three years. That makes me a whiff nervous. The interception rate, it's a little tougher to figure out because sometimes guys are in offenses where it's like,

hey man, just take chances. Huck it downfield. I think the combo of those, would you agree? Like if you're sloppy in college, you're probably going to be sloppy as a pro because these guys are faster. They're coming at you all. The coaches are better. Sloppiness, I feel like carries. Absolutely, yeah.

My line is always quarterbacks don't change their stripes. So your play style is your play style. You can get a lot better or a lot worse within your play style. Like a lot of different play styles can be elite and a lot of different play styles can be really bad, but you are what you are. You're a high turnover player. You're probably going to stay a high turnover player.

If you're a high sack player, probably gonna say a high sack player. You're a high throwaway player, check down player. You're probably gonna say a high throwaway check down player. Tiger doesn't change the stripes. Next one. You're just too short.

Yes. Agreed. And we can, we can fake this in a bunch of ways, but when you're too short, you're too short. Yes, agreed. And we can fake this in a bunch of ways, but when you're too short, you're too short, and you have to be fucking fast, or you have to have just incredible poise the way Russ did. Yeah. Because Russ was probably too short,

but Russ, for years, was a magician with the way he was able to move around in the pocket and buy himself time. So you can be short if you can buy time. And the deep ball made it worth it too, right? Because when you're short, oftentimes you're losing the intermediate area of the field. It becomes really hard to throw too.

So you lose some of those explosives that are created in the intermediate level of the field. Russ could pay you back on that with really, really good deep accuracy. And even like early Breeze, people always forget with Breeze, early Breeze, young Breeze was hucking that thing. Like he was shooting down the field.

And then Breeze also had preternatural vision and sense and feel, right? And that's where late stage Breeze was hucking that thing. He was shooting down the field. And then Breeze also had preternatural vision and sense and feel. And that's where late-stage Breeze, when he couldn't throw it down the field as much, was just hitting windows the moment they opened, crystalline, perfect clarity between two linemen, just a gorgeous understanding of feel and space, maestro-level stuff.

And so that, right, if you're going to be short, you better have some truly unique traits. And that's where like your Baker struggles, your Bryce Young struggles, and Kyler starts to become your pivot point, starts to become your inflection point. It's like, okay, when he's healthy, Kyler's got it sometimes, and he can get around it. When Kyler's not healthy,

and he can't move as much, then you start to see the limits of the size. It's a tough one, because I still don't know where I stand on Bryce Young, but I know that he could not throw the ball over the middle of the field. And I don't know if that ever changed. So now it's gotta be, you gotta be moving around and you gotta be hitting deep balls.

Otherwise you're not making it. Next one, not athletic enough. This is Mac Jones. Mac Jones is just not athletic enough. There's a world where you could have created a system that works, but ultimately, he just seemed like an inferior athlete in every football game he was in

to the guys he was playing against. And at some point, defense has figured that out. Yeah, that's the one that Jared Goff somehow survived. Goff endured. Goff is the last great just statue drafted first overall.

We'll never see another one. He's the last of a dying breed. He just sits back there and hopes the pockets is cleaned up. And he's, by this point, he's crossed the Rubicon.

He's good enough now that he gets away with it. Early on, it was a great Sean McVay helping him. But Gossow is the guy to me where athletically, I watch him now

and I go back and watch him at Cal and I'm like, how is this dude possibly surviving the NFL? But he's got it. That's the one he survived. Yeah. Bledsoe had a little of that too,

where he was just six foot six. And anytime he was running, limbs were just going everywhere. And eventually it came and got him. The guy thing, the little bit of the situation with him, right? Where he goes with,

he goes to McVay graduate school and then goes to this lion situation where it's like, Hey man man anything you give us is a bonus and then they actually he gets a good offensive coordinator that he gets weapons they build around him and everything is kind of additive positive and somehow it worked out but i think there's nine other scenarios where he's out of the league already right yeah and and it's always with with him and with with cousins the thing that always stands out to me is they just they started for long enough in these systems

that eventually they got good. Like, experience is so helpful. Once you start 70, 75, 80 games, you just round out your game, you know where your bread is buttered, you know what you can get away with, what you can't, and they can actually start giving you more. Like, Goff in the playoffs last year

was playing big boy, grown-up, 101 quarterbacking and doing it well. Like, that was for real stuff. Goff wasn't capable of that the last time he made a playoff run with the Rams, and that's why they moved off of him. But eventually, experience accumulates and you start to really sharpen and hone what you're about.

Goff, it was fun to take the mickey out of Goff in the late 2010s, but now we kind of got to give him his due a little bit. Yeah, I agree. Next one is too raw. That's Trubisky and Lance. Just too raw. Didn't play enough games at quarterback and came into the league

and things were too fast and no matter what their athletic traits were, didn't have enough experience. They were the guys playing the video game that you just jump them from the rookie

to the all Madden level and they just couldn't handle it. So is it starting experience for you? That's kind of the solution because people will talk about rawness as like a train. I don't know if it's starting games in college or just like just not enough time

playing the position or what it is. Right. Because the name that immediately came to my mind was Anthony Richardson, right? Who obviously only started the one season of Florida last year. And we talked a lot about his rawness coming out. But for me, it was always like,

all right, he's not raw. He's just inexperienced. Like, you can see him. Like, to me, raw is always like, they don't know how to process. They don't know what they're supposed to be looking at. They get back, they're deer in headlights. They're confused.

They're disoriented. They haven't started to, like, ingrain the instincts, right? The subconscious decisions that a quarterback needs to make at lightning speed. Richardson was always, for me, inexperienced, not raw. He was always like, okay, I can see him making the choices. It's just he doesn't have enough time yet to really get the plane off the ground.

I think you saw in his four starts with the Colts how that inexperience, but not raw. He would make some mistakes, but he would also have some high caliber plays. Raw is always a tough thing to categorize. It's basically what I'm getting at. Where would you put Zach Wilson on that? Yeah, so Wilson, I would not,

I would not describe Wilson as raw. What I would describe Wilson as is coddled. And that's one that I'm kind of interested to see where you come out with the rest of your numbers.

I'm always very cautious of quarterbacks who are playing at a lower level, who are playing with other NFLers, and we're just kind of playing on easy mode, right? Just running the other NFLers, and we're just kind of playing

on easy mode, right? Just running the game on normal mode, and they didn't have to deal with some of the challenges that you're going to see in the NFL. Thinking about Zach Wilson as being one of those guys, thinking about Carson Wentz having that a little bit as well at North Dakota State. Just when these guys have really sweet environments in

which to develop. I mean, Tua a little bit, but obviously he's at Alabama, but still, when they're just playing with all these top 10 picks, all these top 20 picks, sometimes it becomes hard to see the cracks in the facade because they're just protected. They're insulated by the guys around them.

Whereas Josh Allen, nobody believed in him. Had to go to JUCO. Still only got a couple scholarships. I've just got to win people over. What else could I do? Yeah. Three more.

Oh, four more. Two erratic, two inaccurate. Yeah. Which is also Zach Wilson. Just like fundamentally just can't consistently throw the ball to the guys on his team. And that's a skill that I don't, other than Josh Allen

and maybe one or two other examples over the last 25 years, usually it doesn't get better from college to the pros. It's Trey Lance too. Those guys just missed too many players. It's like, whoa, you're spraying it around. Weak arm, Josh Rosen.

It's just like, eh, your arm's not strong enough. Steve Walsh, who predates you, you weren't even born yet, but Steve Walsh was Dallas draft. I can't remember if Dallas, you weren't even born yet, but Steve Walsh was Dallas draft. I can't remember if Dallas drafted for him or traded for him, but he was one of those guys

was Steve Walsh, winner, game manager. And then he just got to the pros and you could time his throws of the sundial. But weak arm, I think killed Josh Rosen.

Also, who was not athletic enough. Yeah. Kenny Pickett, I put up there with weak arm as well, where Pickett just doesn't access enough of the field to scare me. And he can bear, he throws a nine ball and it's short every time.

I'm just like, alright, I can stop this guy. Not worried about it. Two more. Two one-dimensional. I think this is the Justin Fields problem that a couple teams exposed last year, like the Browns in that one Justin Fields game, where they were like, oh, you can only do this, so we're going to make you do

this instead, and there was no plan B. We'll oh, you can only do this. So we're going to make you do this instead. And there was no plan B. We'll see if he can shed that one. You were a bigger Justin Fields fan than others. But to me, it's like, oh, he succeeds in this one type of game. But can he succeed in multiple types of games? I am

not. That's the thing is like I agree with you. And the one dimensionality makes it impossible for the Bears to keep him for a year overtaking Caleb Williams. But whenever it came to, hey, Sam Howell's going for a third,

Kenny Pickett's going for a fourth. It was like, all right, like Justin Fields might be one dimensional, but that one dimension is pretty good. Yeah.

4-4-2-40. Yeah. Right. We like that. 4-4-2-30 a quarterback. That is a rare thing to have. And so the thing about Fields that interests me for

the second stage of his career as a QB 2, as a spot QB 1, is just his dimension. If Gardner Minshew's one dimension is like, I'm accurate, and Justin Fields' one dimension is like, I can outrun everyone on defense. I'm a little bit more interested in the Justin Fields dimension. Last one you mentioned,

coddled, uncoachable, not a hard worker. That's basically the Jamarcus Russell, the famous story about they gave him the DVD with the plays and they put something in it. Whatever that story was, we never thought. Those are some guys too

where they're just like, they just don't want to put the time in. So if we're going backwards and we're not counting wrong situation and we're not counting injury, not a leader in popular, too sloppy, too short, not athletic enough,

too raw, too erratic and accurate, weak arm, too one-dimensional, uncoachable slash coddled slash not a hard worker. And then you look at all the guys we're staring at right now.

And we already talked about Caleb. If I give you those nine things, what worries you with Jaden Daniels? Yeah, I would say one dimensional, right? Because he is really like a one read and scramble guy. Like he does not want to sit there, go through his reads and kind of get to a check down. Like I would say the dimensionality of it worries me.

The, we didn't really say like late breakout, kind of talked about a little bit being too coddled, but just he kind of had a Kenny Pickett career arc where he started for four seasons, never really moved the needle as an NFL guy. And then all of a sudden his fifth season when he was older and the environment around him had two top 10, top 20 picks, I should say, a wide receiver. His left tackle might be the first dude off the board next year. Like he's had NFLers across the field.

He all of a sudden looks really, really good. And so environment and kind of the coddled nature that he got there, I think that red flags for me. And then he's not too short he's a little bit slight and I think that body armor a little bit slight he's allegedly

weighed 210 which to me means he's 205 yes he is extremely slight it's funny when you go and you try to find athletic comps for him in terms of his height weight

right he's one of the best comps for him is Tom Brady because he's like 6'4 205 which is also Brady's size of the combine it's just very funny that Jaden and's like 6'4", 205, which is also Brady's size at the combine. It's just very funny that Jaden and Brady

could not possibly be more different in terms of how they play the position. So, yes, I think those are your red flags for Daniels. For May... Well, but just because we haven't talked about him on this pod, the age piece, I guess that's another way a QB can fail.

I don't know how to figure out how to put that in, but trying to compare somebody like May, who's 21, and Daniels, who's a year and a half older, who spent half a decade in college, and as you mentioned, in his fifth year, ended up in the best possible situation. I don't know how to evaluate that. Because a year ago, you wouldn't have put him in the top three.

Right. And I said, I was talking out the side of my mouth. I said, Jared Goff gets all this experience. He's good now. You say, okay, Ben, Jaden Daniels got all this experience. Isn't it true that he could improve and develop? The answer is yes. The same is true of Bo Nix, who absolutely got better at Oregon than he was at Auburn over

his five years. Michael Penix at Washington got better than he did over his time in college as well. I want to draft the quarterback before he develops. I don't want to draft the final product. I don't want, okay, this is what Jaden Daniels' final product is. It's scrambling all over the place. It's tucking and running.

It's not going through his reads. It's not throwing in the middle of the field. I agree that he's gotten better, and it's okay to get better over time and get all these reps less opportunity. But if this is closer to your ceiling than Drake May is or JJ McCarthy is, I'd rather go that direction because I believe in my coaching staff. I believe in my ability to foster development in quarterbacks. Of course, I need to actually have that.

I need to have that present in my building. And some teams don't have the wide receivers, the offensive line, and the coaching staff necessary to do so. Well, and then you think like Drake May. All right, let's say he stays another year in college. And then in his fifth year, goes to a team like LSU had, would he have been really good? I'm going to say yes.

And this is also Justin Herbert theorem as well a little bit because remember Justin Herbert went back to school because he was a giant geek who cared about getting his degree, right? He was a two-year-old. But for the league, it was like, oh no, he went back as a senior and then he played better that year

than he did as a junior, in my opinion. I liked him more coming off a senior year than he did as a junior, in my opinion. I liked him more coming off a senior year than he did off his junior year. The league had already decided, oh, he's too old and why did he go back? He should have dominated and he didn't win the Heisman. There's always the narrative arcs can get convoluted at this thing.

I also like that Drake May stayed at North Carolina when he easily could have left because you knew the team wasn't going to be as good. He could have just jumped to some other program, tried to win the Heisman, tried to have an awesome season, positioned himself

as the number one pick. And I don't even think he even considered it. He's like, I'm North Carolina. My dad went here. Yeah. My brother went here.

This is where I'm staying. And if we're not as good this year, so be it. These are my guys. Which I think matters. Yeah. And my number one takeaway from charting this year, where I watched

all the games from the senior seasons, was just how bad UNC's supporting cast was. I think people know the name Tess Walker because he had his dispute with the NCAA, and he's certainly an NFL receiver. He's a middle-round guy, and I think he might be the only NFLer on that team. The tight end might be a late-round guy

when the day comes. Beyond that, this offensive, like this offensive line was really, for a college line, like dramatically below average. And they didn't have schematic solutions to help them in protection.

Like May was thrown on the Superman cape every Saturday. And his OC had left from the year before, right? Yes. Phil Longo left, was replaced.

I can't remember the name of the new OC. But so they're right. They had a massive switch overall. They lost talent. And May's just like dying back there to beat Georgia Tech. Like it was not a good situation for him.

So would you say for him, too erratic and inaccurate would be the way that he fails? Yes. I think too erratic and inaccurate, like I think that a proxy for kind of too erratic, a little bit too sloppy,

I think is maybe a better one for May. Sloppy. Oh yeah, too sloppy is even better, yeah. Yeah, it's because May is so aggressive, right? May... Well, you called him a big-game hunter, which I loved. He's just always going to take the 50-yarder over the 20-yarder.

May loves to just be like, what if I won the game on one play? And he'll do that first quarter, eight minutes left, second and three. And you're like, dude, there's a lot of game left. You gotta chill out. He, there's nothing made loves more than identifying a blitz and saying, okay,

well my hot reads over there. But really like, if I wait for a second and the post gets up, like he, he just loves opportunity. If you're going to let a little bit more space develop for him, he's going to try to try to try to kill you for it. And so he is very aggressive.

I think he's like, I don't think he's in the red with aggression where you're just like, okay, this guy is reckless. He's never going to fix this. Jameis Winston is going to have 30 touchdowns, 30 picks. We're not going to be able to field an offense here. I think he's more in the yellow where it's like, okay, we can get away with this, but we probably need to calibrate you back. But I think the sloppiness

is more the red flag than the erraticness because a lot of his accuracy issues are a product of the fact that he's attempting 28-yard throws into the sideline into a tight window. Yes, this wasn't the most accurate pass, but also it's because only the most

precise pass could have possibly been caught in this context. If he was just throwing bone-necked checkdowns the whole game, he'd look really accurate. Well, he'll get used to that in the Patriots next year. Receivers that aren't open, trying to squeeze things in. Just before we go, JJ McCarthy, what would you say if you failed? Out of those nine things I gave you, what would be the reason?

Oh, I kind of like JJ. Jesus. I do. I think if you were making me commit my franchise to a guy, and I had to pick between JJ and Jaden, honestly, the closer we get, the more I feel like I'm like, man, I think I would do JJ. I think if you were making me commit my franchise to a guy and I had to pick between JJ and Jaden, honestly, like the closer we get, the more I feel like I'm like, man,

I think I would do JJ. I think I would. Um, I think McCarthy, I think the rawness is there. Uh, I do think that, that you just have so little data.

You have a small sample size for what he was in college, especially like in the context of big people say like, Oh, like if you look at his numbers on third down, they were good. And like, Oh, when he was trading in fourth quarter,

they were good. Yes. But he never entered a game under the conditions that caleb and drake entered it where they were like or even jayden where it's like hey like if i'm not the best player on the field for four quarters we're going to lose like mccarthy never had just the size of the weight on his back that these other quarterbacks did even when they were against ohio state a key game it's still just like hey like i know the way our team works and I get to defray some of the responsibility to other players right

so it's just I still think that that sensation is very real so to me like the rawness is there for JJ I thought honestly he was going to be a little bit more slight talking about the the Jane Daniels issue he came into the combine quite heavy I don't know how real that number is have a little bit of size concerns a little bit of arm talent concerns as well I think that

McCarthy has a fine arm but if you watch him try to throw outside of the numbers you really see he has to put like both cheeks into every single throw and there's big accuracy drains accordingly and so he really feels to me like a brock purdy type of player where it's just like hey like you know give him the super friends and he'll get the offense off the ground but like once you know you kind of make him having to try to you know carry extra of the load like he's gonna start making mistakes for you. He'll black out and throw it right at a linebacker sometimes. He won't be able to hit a guy open

against the sideline sometimes. He's just a little bit limited. It's not a high-ceiling guy, but I do like a J.J. McCarthy. And he's young. I like that he's young. Yep. I want the Patriots to draft Drake May. He checks the most boxes for me. I love the fact that he's going to be,

he'll probably end up being 240, 245 pounds. There's some Josh, anytime somebody's being described as, there's some Josh Allen and some Justin Herbert there, I'm in. I like all the leadership stuff. And I've said this before, but I love that he was like the little brother,

just getting the crap kicked out of him by the bigger brothers, all of whom were good athletes. Tough kid, loyal. Like there's just, I get it. None of this by the bigger brothers, all from good athletes. Tough kid, loyal. There's just... I get it. None of this is a sure thing, but to me, it's like he's an 80-20 bet that he

makes it. Yeah. My expectation is that if it goes one Caleb, two Jaden, my bet would be on Drake. Drake may be the third overall pick. That's my expectation for how the Patriots would behave in that context. What are you rooting for if Drake is two? I mean,

I have to talk myself into Jaden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy really quickly, right? I guess the case for Jaden Daniels is could he be one of the best 10 players at his position? Yes, he could. And it's like ceiling-wise, he could.

I don't know if J.J. McCarthy will ever be one of the 10 best players. With J.J. McCarthy, it's more like, can he be Brock Purdy? Yeah. Is a different question. I think May and Daniels. Some people think May, no way he could be a top 10 guy at his position. I disagree. Yeah, I think May can be.

I also think Daniels can be. Daniels is tricky because I'm a huge quarterback mobility guy. I've been talking about it for years. It's so great. One of my big things is that quarterback mobility, when you have a guy who can really run, he's not just high ceiling, he's also high floor because the running, the scrambling, it takes away sacks, right? It takes away throwaways.

It gets you to second and six instead of second and 17 and second and 10. That's the value. But Daniels takes a lot of sacks. He makes bad decisions under pressure. He freaks out in clean pockets. He doesn't give you the typical high floor-ness that a lot of these mobile quarterbacks do.

May, as a counterpoint, like May is a good mover and May does a lot to eliminate sacks and to get positive scrambles. Like he has it the right way. Jaden is just so high. Yeah, Jaden is just so high variance with some of it. And so Jaden is really, truly, I don't like to

say this because I think it gets used way too often. I didn't say this of Anthony Richardson at the time and I didn't say this of Josh Allen at the time and I was wrong on Allen. But when people say, oh, he's high ceiling, low floor, I oftentimes think that's too big of an oversimplification. With Jaden, man, he is really high ceiling. He's really low floor. There's no two ways around it. He has

a roll of the dice and hold your breath. Well, I already have Chris Tapp's Porzingis in my life. He has a roll of the dice and hold your breath. Well, I already have Chris Tapps Porzingis in my life, so to have my quarterback also be a hold your breath guy. Some of those hits he took in the LSU was, especially in the Alabama game,

just that one alone, he took back three monster hits. If they take Jaden at three, you go to YouTube.com, you type in Jaden Daniels versus Florida 2023. You watch that, you don't watch anything else

and that's the greatest player I've ever seen you're fine well if they took whatever May or Daniels at 3 they get a receiver

or a tackle at 35 and then they just throw darts to fill the other positions I think their defense is going to be good I'm actually kind of excited to see

I agree do you ever do you have receivers you like top of round 2 not really I didn't go good. I'm actually kind of excited to see. I agree. Do you ever give receivers you like top of round two? Not really. I didn't go that far. I'm just really focused on the quarterback. All the eggs are in this basket, understandably so.

Well, you don't understand the Pats' history with drafting receivers in the late first round, second round, third round has been so grim. I just think there's no rhyme or reason to it at this point. I love the Troy Brown, St. Brown types. I just think there's like no rhyme or reason to it at this point. I just, I love the Troy Brown, St. Brown types. I just feel like those guys

always hit when they come in. These like 5'9", 5'10", chip on their shoulder guys who catch everything. And I don't understand why over and over again

these teams are like the 6'3 guys so fast. Look how fast that guy is. And those are the guys that go over the St. Brown dudes. While you're hanging out watching round three, super bored because, you know, how fast that guy is. And those are the guys that go over the St. Brown dudes. While you're hanging out watching round three, super bored

because, you know, Patriots are big for 20 picks. Malik Washington out of Virginia. If you're like a 5'9 kid with a chip on his shoulder who catches everything under the sun,

Malik Washington is exactly what the doctor ordered. Fun player. So you're doing a live show in Detroit and then a little post-draft,

post-first round show? Yeah. So Wednesday, we're live in Detroit. So if you're in Detroit and then a little post-draft, post-first round show? Yeah, so Wednesday we're live in Detroit. So if you're in Detroit and you want something to do Wednesday night, come check us out at St. Andrews Hall, Ringer NFL Draft Show. It's going to be a blast. But then after that, right,

yeah, we got pods coming out after Thursday, day one. We got Danny Kelly's draft grades will be up on the draft guide. We'll have stories off of the quarterbacks where they land, top five, top ten. Ringer NFL YouTube channel, all the good, John. It's going to be a fun week they land top five, top 10 ringer, NFL, YouTube channel, all the good John.

It's going to be a, it's gonna be a fun week. Ben Solak. Great to see you. Thanks Bill. All right. That's it for part one of the podcast. Thanks to Ben Solak.

Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as well. Don't forget part two of this podcast is coming a little bit later tonight. Um, probably within 75 to 90 minutes after the last game ends. So stay tuned for that. I will see you in part two. I don't have feelings within. On the wayside, I'm a person never lost. I don't have feelings within.

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