The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 1: The Annual NFC Over/Unders With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: September 3, 2023

In Part 1 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal to run through the expected win totals of every NFC team and make their over/under picks. NFC East (3:40) NFC Nort...h (22:07) NFC South (31:01) NFC West (44:28) Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Coming up, a two-part staggered Sunday podcast. The NFC over-unders are next. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey.
Starting point is 00:00:21 And it's on Prime. All season long, watch Prime Monday Night Hockey deliver unreal plays, the biggest goals, can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL's best. They're all on Prime. Prime Monday Night Hockey. It's on Monday. It's on Prime. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste.
Starting point is 00:00:55 Picture this. It's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that. Or when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just
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Starting point is 00:01:41 Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network and TheRinger.com where you can find just a ton of fantasy football content including the Ringer Fantasy Football Show. You heard those guys on my podcast on Tuesday talking about our favorites. It was the My Guys second annual fantasy draft.
Starting point is 00:02:01 They're doing sleepers and last minute takes on their podcast as well we also have the ringer fantasy football guide which you can find on the ringer.com lots of uh predictive stuff on ringer nfl show uh shiel and solak were banging out their division winners and playoff teams solak went about as chalk as i've ever seen in my life for the afc i was really disappointed he's young he doesn't know any better. We also have the Ringer Gambling Show where the East Coast Bias guys
Starting point is 00:02:28 have been covering a lot of that stuff. Sharp and House come back on Friday to preview week one. And we have Against All Odds as we announced on Thursday
Starting point is 00:02:37 coming back to the Ringer Podcast Network. And Sal is going to be creating a weekend, a preview show called Cousin Sal's Weekend Winners that launches this Friday on FanDuel TV. And then you can hear him and Tate on, it's going to be Tuesday mornings running as a pod
Starting point is 00:02:56 and on FanDuel TV as well. So stay tuned for that. Speaking of FanDuel, we have a boost that we talked about, I think in part two, San Francisco, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, all to make the playoffs, which was minus 118. Our friends at FanDuel have boosted that to plus 130. And you can find it Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday on the app. So if you want to jump on that, we would recommend it.
Starting point is 00:03:21 We think those are all playoff teams, especially San Francisco and Philly filling the NFC, which is weaker, which we're about to discuss. So you can check that out. I think there's a three-day window to jump on that. You can find a bunch of great boosts and parlays as well and futures. And we helped out. I think there's going to be some ringer specific futures that we put up there as well. So there you go. I'm not going to talk about team USA on this podcast. I'm not going to panic because they lost the Lithuania. Tough day for the Austin Reeves hive though, because they were punishing him. Lithuania beats the USA team and they were punishing him down low. They had to take Reeves out. So Reeves went from like, it was a big three with Davis and LeBron to, Oh-oh, you can post this guy up? I'll be interested to see what happens the rest of the tournament.
Starting point is 00:04:07 But little, you know, USA didn't need the game. So they were playing a bunch of players. I think when we get to the actual knockout round, which starts on Tuesday, you'll see the rotation shorten. And I'm not too concerned, but it is just amazing to watch these other countries. We've been saying this for 15 years,
Starting point is 00:04:25 but to say the other countries have caught up is an understatement. Canada is just legitimately good. And then you watch teams like Lithuania and Latvia. Everybody's got a couple of NBA players and they all know how to play together. So I think this next week of the World Cup, starting Tuesday,
Starting point is 00:04:43 is going to be really awesome basketball. And unfortunately for me, it's on early in the morning. Too bad. All right. It is time. The NFC overrunners with cousin Sal. First,
Starting point is 00:04:54 our friends from ProJump. All right, Sal, we're coming out of the gate with your favorite division. The division that has tormented you, brought you great delight. It could have brought you a little more joy, I think, over the years than it did, maybe. A little more. Decent amount of joy, but maybe a little more over the years.
Starting point is 00:05:31 Yeah, yeah. Philadelphia is the favorite. Their over-under is 11 and a half, plus 104. So there's been a little action on the under. They are minus 115 to win the division, plus 330 for the conference, and plus 800 for the Super Bowl. Plus 330
Starting point is 00:05:45 for the number one seed. And if you think they can go 14-3, that's plus 420. Who thinks that? Well, they went 14-3 last year. They're absolutely loaded.
Starting point is 00:05:55 I did my player rankings and, you know, they had 13 guys plus an above-average coach. I said this on a previous pod. I think Kurtz is my favorite MVP pick.
Starting point is 00:06:07 He's either 12 to one or 11 to one, wherever you get it. If you look at his stats last year where they didn't play a bunch of fourth quarters, he missed two games and he was still almost like a 3,800, 800 guy. He's their rushing guy in the goal line. He's basically Josh Allen with less PR.
Starting point is 00:06:21 He's the guy that gets pushed. He gets pushed in. He has the best offensive line in the league and up there with best weapons. Running back's probably the weakest spot of the team, but even then, that's the easiest spot to fill. I don't want to go backwards because we did the AFC already, but yes, Hurts is a good pick,
Starting point is 00:06:37 but I still say just keep betting Mahomes every year. Just take him every year. Just do it. We talk about that all the time. You get 6-1, 6-1 on the Chiefs, 6 one MVP, my homes. And you know, instead of a, uh, what is it? Annuity? What is that fun that people have that we don't squander all their money gambling? Let's just do that. It's definitely not called the annuity for this. Um, what are the homes MVP odds right now? I thought it was six, right? Yeah. Yeah. And then by like week
Starting point is 00:07:02 two, all of a sudden it's like plus 130. Yeah, right. You know that's going down. It immediately changes. But Hurts is a good number two, I think. Oh, Mahomes is on, yeah, Fandle right now at six to one. Allen's seven to one. Burrow's seven to one. Herbert's nine to one. And Hurts is 12 to one as we're taping this earlier before the season.
Starting point is 00:07:20 But I don't know why he doesn't see mods as anybody else. What is the case against this team other than schedule and Super Bowl hangover? All right, there's a few. First of all, if they went under, we're looking at they're under 11.5. If they went under, 11.6 is very good for a team that lost in the Super Bowl. Super Bowl loser hangover is a real thing. Almost always lets down.
Starting point is 00:07:44 Didn't happen in Cincinnati last year Okay, alright Kyle, take that out But it was one of the few times Where it actually didn't happen That's what I didn't mention But no back-to-back winners in the NFC 19 years, they lose both coordinators
Starting point is 00:08:00 And their stats-wise It's almost impossible to duplicate what they did, even defensively what they did 70 sacks last year. And the next best was 55 and they lose a couple of those guys. Right. I know it's all about Jalen hurts. And this time last year, we were probably debating whether or not he's the right fit for Philly.
Starting point is 00:08:20 Right. Or did you have them going far? we talked about that was the big question mark with them last year was what are we getting with Jalen Hurts? What are we getting with this coach? Those were the two things and both of them turned out really well. I think the Jalen Carter piece, you know, as you know, I love the preseason stuff with the hype and when the teammates start talking about guys and Darius Slay had this like paragraph long rave about Jalen Carter. He was calling him baby Rhino.
Starting point is 00:08:48 He was like, this guy's absolutely a problem. But he just did it in a way where you're like, oh, this guy must be really good. Because this is like a monologue about how amazing this guy is. And they basically got the number one pick in the draft who fell to nine because there was an incident in classic NFL fashion and he just kept dropping. And then in classic NFL fashion, you get to a point where it's like, all right,
Starting point is 00:09:11 this is too far. Somebody's got to take them. So they end up with them. And it's a huge X factor. I don't feel like this is a normal Super Bowl hangover team where you're just basically adding the best guy in the draft. Then if Nolan Smith's good too. Yeah. Well, they lost seven starters. Let's not forget that. That is tough. Like I said, both coordinators. But this Philly Bulldogs thing they're doing is really nuts. So now it's Deontay Swift, Carter, Nolan Smith, Jordan Davis,
Starting point is 00:09:37 N'Kobe Dean, right? It's really. And is that the secret? Like why even hire scouts? Like quarterback's another thing. Take the kid from French Hill. Go take your students from Alabama. Yeah, just take interior linemen and interior defensive players
Starting point is 00:09:50 who have started for two years for the Alabamas, for the Georgias, and you really probably can't go wrong. So they're doing that right. That GM is a genius. But I still think 11-6 is a good measure for a team, you know, with so much going on in a division with three playoff teams and tough first-place schedule, right? Minnesota at Tampa Bay, not that great.
Starting point is 00:10:11 And at Kansas City, third toughest schedule in the league. I think their offense is going to be incredible. They do have the best offensive line. They do probably have the best 1-2 receiver punch unless you wanted to throw the Cincy guys at me. But Smith and Brown probably have the championship belt for that. Goddard's the best all-around tight end. Hurts is no worse than the fifth QB in the league.
Starting point is 00:10:35 So you could say, all right, they don't have the same offensive coordinator. Maybe that's going to hurt them. But I just think they're so loaded on offense. And could the recipe be what happened last year where they just get these leads? The best thing they have so loaded on offense. And could the recipe be what happened last year where they just get these leads? The best thing they have is the pass rush. So now they're up 14 in the fourth quarter. Those guys are just like, you know,
Starting point is 00:10:52 killing whoever and they're finishing the game. I can't argue. I can't say they got lucky last year. They blew everybody out. They were a tour de force. So you have them at 13? So I have them at 12 and five and I'd be willing to consider 13,
Starting point is 00:11:05 which 13 plus wins on Fandles plus two 10, but I think 12 and five with the schedule, they're catching new England really nicely in that week one where new England's offensive line. I still don't even know who's starting. Yeah. It gets a little dicey at the end. They,
Starting point is 00:11:20 the, one of the interesting things that this ties in with the giants over under two, they play the giants week 16 and then week 18. Week 18, right. And they might have everything wrapped up because it's either them, Dallas, or San Francisco. We agree those are the three teams, right? I don't see anybody else unless the Packers just catch this crazy schedule wind
Starting point is 00:11:37 and all of a sudden they're 10-1 or something. Those are the three favorites. But I think those are the three. And there's a chance Philly, you know, if anything happens to the other two, that Philly just has this locked up down the stretch, which would help the Giants. I just don't see any world where they're worse than 12
Starting point is 00:11:54 and 5. Unless somebody gets hurt. I think somebody has to get hurt. But their over-under is 11. I know. I just think they're a 12-win team. They have too much talent. And I'll say this with your team. Your team, the over-under is 9.5, and it stayed that way, and it's got a huge minus sign on it now. It's like minus 165.
Starting point is 00:12:11 That's stupid. I don't know why your over-under is not 10.5. Thank you. Okay. Yeah. So let's move to your team, and we can compare and contrast. Well, first of all, real quick, because I will throw an Eagles prop at you, which is good on Fandle.
Starting point is 00:12:23 Jalen Carter or Nolan Smith, defensive rookie of the year, plus 550. That's pretty good. Two bites of the apple there. That's pretty good. Or the cheesesteak, however you want to do it. But my team, yeah, nine and a half. It won't move.
Starting point is 00:12:35 What'd you say? It was minus 162. Is the over? They must. I think when there's so much money on it, they almost become afraid to move it because then you can just try to middle it and get it at 10. I've seen a couple of them
Starting point is 00:12:45 move it. I thought the Ravens moved the actual number. They should move it. I think that's too low. Your defense is going to be awesome. The fact that you added Gilmore, I thought was one of the most under-the-radar things. He was awesome last year. He was like 2019 Pats Gilmore last year. Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:13:01 Gilmore, they pick up cooks. I mean, they're probably going to have the best set of corners with Diggs, Gilmore, this guy Bland in the slot, but Kellen Moore out, that's what worries me a little. Mike McCarthy announcing he's calling the plays. They're going to run a lot more. Yeah, that's where it's at. Are we going to run to the left? He's giving
Starting point is 00:13:17 way too much information. We're going to run to the left more. Yeah, exactly. Everybody know you're lined up on the wrong side defense. Listen, we were damn good. Yeah. Everybody know you're lined up on the wrong side defense. Listen, we were damn good last year. I know. It's comical once we get to the playoffs. 12 wins. We knock out Brady.
Starting point is 00:13:31 We forced him to retire. The guy was never going to retire if we hadn't beaten him in the playoff game. And they lost to an excellent 49er squad. So, okay. Talking about them as a regular season team is different than talking about what's going to happen in mid-January. But I do like them over 9.5. Well, you also, you're the best defensive player in the league. I think Parsons has the belt now.
Starting point is 00:13:52 Unless you want to give it to Chris Jones, because Lombardi has the whole thing. He thought Chris Jones was the best guy last year. Really? It was either him or Parsons. Donald, who I think everybody thought was the best guy with that team. They're so young, 13 and a half sacks. They lock up digs for $97 million.
Starting point is 00:14:10 He has 17 interceptions in the first three years. They have some real ballers on defense. Parsons' defensive player of the year is like plus 450. I don't know why he just wouldn't be in the mix every year. Yeah. Because he just destroys games. I mean, we're never seeing LT again, but- But things could open up for him too. It's a semi-LT-ish impact. Yeah. Because he just destroys games. I mean, we're never seeing LT again, but things could open up for him too. It's a semi-LT-ish
Starting point is 00:14:28 impact. Right. And you just have a shitload of talent. Schedule, you're playing AFC East, NFC West. So you have two easy NFC West games and then who knows, maybe someone will stink in the AFC East, but to me, 11 and 6 minimum.
Starting point is 00:14:44 And you're going to have games where the defense just wins the game and you don't even have to do anything. It has nothing to do with the playoffs. It's like what we said about the Bills. You can be a really good regular season team. It might not mean anything. But I don't see how you're not one of the best three teams. I would have loved to have zagged against it, especially with McCarthy.
Starting point is 00:15:01 Give me the car keys. It's McCarthy time. I don't trust Dak, as you know. I thought Dak was not good last year. Do you not think he's a top eight quarterback? Like, you wouldn't put him in your top eight? No. Really?
Starting point is 00:15:12 No. Oh, man. Look at his numbers. Like, last year was just a weird year. I'll tell you where I had him. So, I have Mahomes. I might throw this water in your face. So, yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:24 Mahomes. Then I have eight-pointers, Allen, Herbert, Hertz, Burrow. Six-pointers, Rodgers, Lamar, and Lawrence. So is that, that's eight. I don't know what these are. Prescott, nine. Yeah. Oh, you have nine.
Starting point is 00:15:37 Okay. That's better than most. And then I have like Cousins, Watson, Jones, Geno, Stafford right after him. Listen, he said he wasn't going to have 10 interceptions. He called it out. He called the number. And so far, he's right. He only had like eight interceptions in preseason and practices.
Starting point is 00:15:53 So good for him. Now, a PF focus had him second in standard accuracy. It's so weird how people view Dak Prescott, but I think he's going to be the guy. I'm glad we haven't mentioned Trey Lance. People are losing their minds over Trey Lance, a guy who's going to be inconsequential for this roster. I don't understand.
Starting point is 00:16:10 Who were you competing against with the fourth-round pick for Trey Lance? Who were the other teams lining up? What do you mean? Why did you have to give up anything for him? I thought the Niners were going to have to trade a pick to get rid of him because he had this guaranteed money. It's like picking up a piano. No, you're not going to get money for this piano.
Starting point is 00:16:27 I got to take it out of your house. Right. And I have to pay the movers to take the piano. Right, right. No, no. Actually, I'm going to also need a fourth round pick with the piano. He's a piano man. I'm doing you a favor.
Starting point is 00:16:36 Right. If you had to add, we talked about this on Against All Odds, how many over-under touchdown runs for Lance, though? He might be the push E, which the Eagles make famous. Oh, you think they're going to use him in packages like Malik Cunningham? Because I don't think maybe just like at the one-yard line. Yeah, yeah. Your practice squad hero.
Starting point is 00:16:54 But yeah, I don't know. I could see them using him in that regard. But again, I thought Cooper Rush was solid. We know he can win. He went 4-1 last year. It was ridiculous. These two teams are really good. I think with Dallas,
Starting point is 00:17:09 there is a sneaky at the Giants week one game. Sure. Followed by the Jets week two in Dallas. Yeah, New York back to back. 0-2, you're not even on your radar for that?
Starting point is 00:17:25 No, sure it is. Yeah, those are tough teams. But we do have the Giants number for sure. I'll throw this at you. Cowboys' highest scoring team is 16-1. I think we're only a few points off that measure. And like I said, Dak missed four games there, five games. I was excited for your number one seed bet, but I didn't like the odds.
Starting point is 00:17:43 It was plus 600. Was it? Six? Yeah, I thought maybe if it was like 9-, but I didn't like the odds. It was plus 600. What was it? Six? Yeah. I thought maybe if it was like nine to one, I thought that would be tasty. Playoffs minus 225 seems pretty fair. Yeah. Super Bowl 13 to one, but you can't.
Starting point is 00:17:57 Dallas Super Bowl odds are always screwed up. Well, because you're like Red Sox fans. People just bet it. I'm good. We can talk regular season. I can't get them postseason just yet. Do you want to power rank your top five most disappointing Dallas
Starting point is 00:18:09 seasons before we move on? No. Of course not. You don't want to do that off the top of your head? Why do I have to do that? What was the number one most disappointing Dallas season? Romo botching the snap? No. When they lost to the Giants and they were 13-3 that year and Eli and giants one, went to the Superbowl and beat your team.
Starting point is 00:18:28 It's probably, it's probably the same year as yours, right? You ain't that year. What about the year when Dak didn't get up to the line in time to run the last play? It was fun. What team,
Starting point is 00:18:37 who are you playing in that year? The Niners. And then the Niners last year was when, uh, Zekio Elliott snapped the ball and, uh, and got annihilated.
Starting point is 00:18:47 Got annihilated and sent to the Cowboy. I want to make fun of Jerry Jones more, but they've drafted really well. They've made a lot
Starting point is 00:18:53 of smart moves. Like, it's hard to You look at some of these other teams like the Cardinals who don't have anyone left on their team and some other
Starting point is 00:18:59 even the 49ers, bad drafts, you know. Like, they traded up to get Parsons. He didn't fall to their lap. They made moves and they went and they got him. It's impressive. All right, so here's where it's going to get a little wonky.
Starting point is 00:19:12 I also have the Giants in double figures going 10-7 and making the playoffs. They're over under 7.5. They are plus 172 to make the playoffs, a bet I've already made. They're three to one to win 10 plus games. And here's the case. I'm not scared off that they're in the Dallas Philly division. All right. So they go one and three against those teams. The Giants are good. They're nine, seven, one last year. They were slapping things together. It was supposed to
Starting point is 00:19:44 be this rebuilding year and Dayball did such a good job rejuvenating everybody that by the end of the year, they actually had something. They win a playoff game. I thought Thibodeau came on. I liked the draft that they had. The Darren Waller thing's a real thing. Like, I think they're going to unleash that guy.
Starting point is 00:20:00 I try not to get too sucked in by the preseason hype, but that guy was awesome three years ago. He was supposed to have a huge comeback year last year. There's something weird with his salary. Guess how many missed tackles he forced last year, Aaron Waller? Not a lot. Just guess.
Starting point is 00:20:17 Guess zero. You'll be right. You want to be right? Guess zero. Not one. I don't know. I think the little weirdness with this team, the Barkley offseason fiasco is not great. I liked them this time last year. I don't know. I think the little weirdness with this team, the Barkley off season fiasco is not great. I liked them this time last year. I don't know if I picked them to make the playoffs. I liked them over.
Starting point is 00:20:32 I think there's seven and 10. The day ball thing is we're going to look back at that. Like he won coach of the year at nine, seven and one. Yeah. I don't know if we're going to see that again. And they were one, four and one in division game. So if you think they're going to improve on that, I can see why
Starting point is 00:20:46 you might go over 7.5. It's just such a suspicious... It's the most suspicious line, I think, over under out there. 7.5. Well, there's some terrible rest stuff with them. They have a hard schedule. I get all the reasons. They're doing AFC East, NFC West. One of
Starting point is 00:21:02 the things I like for the over, they play Philly in week 18. 16 and 18. You said, oh yeah, right. But that has all the makings of Philly doesn't play anybody. Even for the over-under, which is 7.5, let's say they're 7-9 heading into that last week
Starting point is 00:21:17 and Philly arrests everybody. That could get them to eat. But does anyone sit anyone in week 18 now that it's almost always something to play for now? Now that there's only one bye. Like even the Chiefs played all their guys against the Raiders last year. Yeah, no, it happened last year. I like their pass rush.
Starting point is 00:21:34 I like their style. And really, I love their coach. And I thought he was one of the best coaches I saw last year. And I just find it hard to believe they're going to go 7-10. All right. I think they're... He replaced Joe Judge. Especially in this crap conference.
Starting point is 00:21:45 He replaced Judge. Yeah. That was your new coach guy last year. Yeah. Washington, I have under 6.5. Oh, House is not going to be happy. Plus 100. Same thing.
Starting point is 00:21:56 They finished 8-8-1 last year. They're plus 3-10 to make the playoffs. There's some weird Washington buzz that I don't fully understand because I think a lot of people watch that game when they beat Philly. I think Ron Rivera is one of the five worst coaches in the league.
Starting point is 00:22:13 And we'll get to another coach that I can't believe people don't realize later. I think people are looking at an even more recent game. I hear a lot of people talk about that preseason game against the Ravens where they
Starting point is 00:22:25 broke the streak as this is it. This is the moment Washington turns it around. The dumbest thing ever. Yeah. You're trying. You're playing your first stringers in a preseason game. This is nuts. By the way, they gave up five first downs in the first six plays that defense. But yeah, I'm not there either. I'm going under. First of all, great. Daniel Snyder's out. That stench is gone. You got Josh Harris, the new owner, no more sewage in the stadium, but it's still Sam Howell and Eric B enemy trying to pick up an offense
Starting point is 00:22:52 that hasn't been top 20 in six years. I just don't see a lot of explosive playmakers on either side of the ball, including chase young, who they didn't grant that fifth year option. Right. If chase young was good, why didn't they grant the option? There was already like that weird Rivera B year option. Right. If Chase Young was good, why didn't they grant the option?
Starting point is 00:23:07 There was already like that weird Rivera Biennium thing. Right. That the season I even started it. I was looking at him for first coach fired. Yeah. They're at Denver, at Philly, at Atlanta, at the Giants, at New England, at Seattle, at Dallas and at the Jets. So none of those games are easy. They also have Buffalo, Philly, San Francisco and Dallas at home.
Starting point is 00:23:22 Yeah. There's six teams with six games with teams with 12 or more wins. I don't see any roadmap for them to be good. I have them down for six and 11. They're over under six and a half. So there you go. We're going to take a break. Come back with the NFC North.
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Starting point is 00:24:33 giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. All right, Sal. Speaking of things I don't understand, the Detroit hype train, they're over under 9.5.
Starting point is 00:24:55 They finished 9.8 last year. Finished season strong. They're garbage on defense last year. They seem like they're going to be garbage again on defense, but with a much harder schedule. They open things off at Kansas City. They also play at Green Bay, at Baltimore, at the Chargers, at New Orleans, at Chicago, at Minnesota, at Dallas.
Starting point is 00:25:14 I don't like overhyped teams that just are riding something that didn't really mean anything to begin with. I think there's a better team in this division, and I just don't see it. just are riding something that didn't really mean anything to begin with. Yeah. I think there's a better team in this division, and I just don't see it. I don't see the Lions thing at all. I don't understand it. I think it's weird.
Starting point is 00:25:36 People seem to forget that they're also the Lions. That has to be factored in. That has to be factored in. Three games. What fan base has disappointed their fans over the years more consistently than the Lions? Right. And they actually have real hope and expectations this year. I think their offense is going to be good.
Starting point is 00:25:48 I get it. Yeah. Sure. They're basically like the NFC Chargers, right? But I'm not going to take them seriously. Yeah. And we talked about it in the other pod, like the recency bias.
Starting point is 00:26:00 Everybody remembers that week 18 game against the Packers on Sunday night. A Packers team that we all think was bad, but they won that. And it's like, you would have thought they made it two games into the playoffs. They didn't. Yeah, there's a lot of buzz. I mean, imagine having them at 10 wins automatically. I'm going under nine and a half. There's not a ton of room for improvement. They were five and one in the division last year. Right. So what are they, they're going to run the table to get that number better. And you're right against an improved schedule, their defense. I know Hutchinson had nine and a half sacks. There are six round pick. Houston had eight sacks,
Starting point is 00:26:33 but other than that, it's kind of a mess. They're not going to be able to cover anybody. No. So they're playing Kansas city in week one. They're probably going to give up like 38 points in that game. Yeah. Oh, they'd be lucky.
Starting point is 00:26:43 Yeah. That, that'd be, that it's going to be, it's going to be tough. They added Gardner Johnson, the safety from Philly who got banged up a little and the cornerback from Pitt.
Starting point is 00:26:50 But yeah, they have a ways to go and I think people fell in love with Dan Campbell. The other Campbell, you know, they may have reached on the draft picks too.
Starting point is 00:27:00 Well, they took a running back 12th. Yeah. Jamal Williams had what, 17 touchdowns? Right. They didn't need a running back. Weird use of resources. They really didn't need a linebacker.
Starting point is 00:27:07 People do like Gibbs, but that's not how I would have used it. I didn't understand it. I don't understand what happened to Minnesota last year. They finished 13-4. Are we doing Minnesota now? Yeah, Minnesota's next. They lost to the Giants, and everybody has them penciled in for a massive regression. Their over-under is 8.5.
Starting point is 00:27:27 So their over-under is 4.5 less than the amount of wins they had last year. That's dumb. And I'm going under on that. Really? Yeah. So what are you, the 6 or 7, 8? I'm at 7 and 10. I mean.
Starting point is 00:27:39 You're going over? You said it. It's 8.5. Now, the big number that jumps out at everyone, they were 11 and 0 in one score games right can't they be 7 and 4
Starting point is 00:27:48 in one score games and win 9 games this year like why is that so hard I just don't see the talent no talent just other than Jefferson and Darasaw
Starting point is 00:27:57 like I don't know Jefferson Addison Hunter Dynamite he's gonna be good I think Madison
Starting point is 00:28:03 is as could be as good as Cook. If you look at his games when Cook wasn't, when they weren't split in time, Madison put up good numbers. Z'Darrius Smith leaving is not ideal, but they bring Brian Flores in at DC. I think they're going to be good. They brought the premier cornerback in, Murphy,
Starting point is 00:28:18 from Arizona. I love it. I think they win 11 games. They win this division. That signing of Danell Hunter makes me think, like, all right, they're serious about this team. Why? Everybody's sleeping on them. They're going to go 11-6.
Starting point is 00:28:32 That team was a hot garbage 13-4 team that's going to be worse this year, and I have them at 7-10. Is there something to say about a team that could win one-score games? Like, does Cousins get any credit for being able to? No. I watched some of those games.
Starting point is 00:28:46 They were infuriating. All right. They were some of the dumbest losses for the other team I could ever remember. I know. I didn't like them either, but that,
Starting point is 00:28:53 four and a half game regression. So I have Green Bay as my 11 and six team. Wow. They're over under seven and a half, plus 350 for the division, 20 to one for the conference,
Starting point is 00:29:04 10 plus wins wins plus 250. 11-plus wins plus 440, if you think I'm right on FanDuel. Why do you like Jordan Love so much? Nobody liked him two years ago. I think he's fine. I just thought Rodgers was pretty mediocre last year. There's major Ewing theory potentially, even though Rodgers won a Super Bowl in Green Bay,
Starting point is 00:29:22 but it was so long ago, people barely remember. I just like the team. I think they're loaded with dudes on both ends that were picked in high rounds in the draft. I thought, you know, what were they finished last year? They were 8-9? It felt like it was 5-12, but it was 8-9
Starting point is 00:29:40 and they were kind of in some of those 9 losses too. The Rogers thing was just bizarre. It was hung over the team like a black plague and the schedule is just ridiculously easy. I mean, they're coming out of the gate at Chicago, at Atlanta
Starting point is 00:29:56 and then home for New Orleans, Detroit, at Vegas, at Denver, home Minnesota, home Rams. They're so young, man. They're so young. They might be like six and one after the first eight. Oh, come on. Their draft picks have to contribute immediately. Van Ness, Musgrave.
Starting point is 00:30:09 Wait, have you read about the tight end, Musgrave? Yeah, Musgrave. Everyone's going nuts about him. I know, but did they do him any favors, Jordan Love? Like, they're four pass catchers that, number one, like have one-year experience at most, two of them. Right? Dobbs and Watson are the only ones.
Starting point is 00:30:22 Well, you like Watson, right? I thought Watson was good last year. I think if you look at his numbers, I think Rodgers made him what he was. He hit that fly pattern and he was gone. But if you're looking at like 70 receptions out of that guy, it didn't even happen in college for that guy.
Starting point is 00:30:35 Really good running backs. Good offensive line. First to six opponents, no playoffs. So that's good. I would say a borderline elite pass rush probably a notch below the Philly Dallas but next level
Starting point is 00:30:48 defense wasn't great Barry that defensive coordinator is out if he doesn't put it together this year I don't know I do have him over I know I'm talking
Starting point is 00:30:55 I'm down on him I have him at 8-9 but even that's over I have for tough games for them at Atlanta at Denver at Pittsburgh
Starting point is 00:31:02 at Detroit at the Giants at Minnesota and home KC. Those are going to be the ones that maybe they won't be favored in most of them or whatever, but for the most part, they're going to be favored in a lot of these games. The last four aren't bad.
Starting point is 00:31:16 Tampa Bay, Carolina, Minnesota, Chicago. Yeah, I like it. I just like the vibe. I like everything I've read. All right. And I think getting the Rodgers thing behind them was good. I'm in on the Packers. Well, everybody we talked about in the other pod, everyone's rooting for that getting the Rodgers thing behind them was good. I'm in on the Packers. Well, everybody,
Starting point is 00:31:25 we talked about in the other pod, everyone's rooting for that result, right? Yeah. Packers would be good. Bears over under 7.5, which seems ridiculously high.
Starting point is 00:31:34 I don't understand that at all. They were 3-14 last year. So just beating the over-under would be a five-win gain. Mm-hmm. DJ Moore is good, but come on. People seem to like
Starting point is 00:31:42 their draft great. I am still no idea if Justin Fields is a competent but come on. People seem to like their draft great. I am still no idea if Justin Fields is a competent quarterback or not. Why? Because he threw six times last year? Yeah, there's just amazing stats. Lombardi and I talked about it, about they were behind in all these games,
Starting point is 00:31:57 and yet, you know, they threw like, it was in the top three lowest pass attempts for any team that won less than six games. It was like a 1960s team. I know. It was really crazy. So something they didn't like. I hate their schedule to begin the year.
Starting point is 00:32:09 They got Green Bay at Kansas City, at Washington. They're playing at the Chargers at New Orleans. It's like a weirdly harder NFC North schedule than the other teams, which I don't understand. They do have Arizona near the end of the year. But I just don't think they have any talent. He threw 318 times.
Starting point is 00:32:30 Brady threw over 700 times. 318 when they were behind over and over again. I'm with you. I don't know that DJ Moore makes a difference for a team that doesn't want to throw. It's almost like they were like, we're going to trade him, so we don't want to show anybody what he could do with his arm.
Starting point is 00:32:46 So don't pass under any circumstances. That defense was so bad. To be clear. I'm not ruling him out. Like Trubisky. I was out, you know, like there's been quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:32:56 Like that guy doesn't have an amount. Right. Marcus Mariota. I think fields, maybe he'll be good, but we just didn't see any evidence that he can play four quarters of football and mix passes and running. I just don't see it.
Starting point is 00:33:11 It's just odd because 177 rushing yards, the game was second best, and it was largely due to him. But if you can't throw and get the ball down the field, what good is it? And defensively, they generated the fewest sacks. They had like 20. The average was like 40 and a half. So this is one of our big disagreements. Green Bay versus Minnesota.
Starting point is 00:33:31 Yeah. You have Minnesota. I have Green Bay. I love Minnesota. We'll see who's right. Let's take a break. All right, coming back. We're doing the NFC South.
Starting point is 00:33:43 Sal was looking at FanDuel and noticed that they have odds for a team to score in all 17 games of touchdown. Oh, that wasn't for public consumption. My God, I can't believe. So betrayed right now. You think San Francisco could score a touchdown in every game? Yeah, they did it last year. What are the odds?
Starting point is 00:33:59 It's even odds. I love that. Love it, love it, love it. They have it for every team. Like the Bills are minus 200, you know. They have it for every team. The bills are minus 200. What was your best Women's World Cup bet? My best bet was not waking up for most of it. I lost so much before they even qualifying rounds. Disgusting. All right. The NFC South. New Orleans is the favorite. Plus 130. Their over-under is nine and a half. 17-1 for the conference, minus 188 for the playoffs. I instinctively, in June and July
Starting point is 00:34:29 and for most of August, was out on New Orleans because I thought Derek Carr looked kind of semi-shot last year. And I was just, New Orleans is old, the cap, blah, blah, blah. And then I was like, I'm going to go Atlanta or Carolina.
Starting point is 00:34:41 And that's where I'm heading. And then Carolina quickly became appalled. We'll talk about them in a second. Right. And I just couldn't get there with Atlanta with Ritter because I watched all those games. And I know Atlanta is like the sexy pick. The football nerds are in and whatever.
Starting point is 00:34:58 And look at this. And they've been married so bad. Is Ritter going to be better than Derek Carr? No. The worst version of Derek Carr, Ritter's not going to be better than Derek Carr? No. The worst version of Derek Carr, Ritter's not going to be better than. What are the odds that Derek Carr just, maybe he's just better this year.
Starting point is 00:35:13 Maybe he needed to get out of Las Vegas. Maybe he wasn't vibing with McDaniels. He's young enough that I could see him going to New Orleans. He's playing a ton of games indoors. They have the easy schedule in the league. He's got good receivers. Kamara's coming back for week four. I talked myself into them.
Starting point is 00:35:30 Their schedule is so easy, it's like staggering. Yeah. And that was it. I think they go 10-7. I think they hit the over. I have it even better at 11-6. And I think you and I approach it the same way. You look for the best quarterback-coach combination,
Starting point is 00:35:43 and you're not going to find it in the NFC South. You're not going to find it. Dennis Allen. Right. Okay. So even taking the Saints, I'm going to admit that, right? It's kind of a joke. He's 15 and 38, but I still think Carr is capable. I think they surrounded him with some nice pieces. Honestly, if you're being honest,
Starting point is 00:36:00 I'm not talking about Bryce Young four years from now. If you want one quarterback on any team in the NFC South, you would take Derek Carr, right? So they gave him the $60 million. You don't need Michael Thomas to be your main guy. He could be the third option. Well, that's the thing.
Starting point is 00:36:14 If Olave becomes kind of semi-special, which I think he showed a lot of signs of last year, that's the other thing for them. Yeah. Juwan Johnson's nice at tight end. That Shahid guy they like. Joe Woods is a defensive coordinator. They signed our guy Jamal Williams. Yeah. Jamal Williams's nice at tight end. That Shahid guy they like. Joe Woods is a defensive coordinator. They signed our guy Jamal Williams.
Starting point is 00:36:27 Yeah, Jamal Williams, goal linebacker. So I think they're going to be pretty good, and they have really good secondary with Lattimore and Matthew. One of the few teams we just talked about that have a good defense. So I'll go defense and quarterback. Not sure about the coach. Gets me to the Saints winning division. Also, they have a good offensive
Starting point is 00:36:48 line. It's not top five, but it's probably top eight. Carr last year did not have a good offensive line. They only had one good lineman. Cold weather games early, I'm looking at that. Only three prime time. Under the radar team, they're going to do good. I write down the hard
Starting point is 00:37:03 games for each team that seem hard. For them, I only had at Green Bay, at New England, at know, under the radar team, they're going to do good. I write down the hard games for each team that seem hard. And for them, I only had at Green Bay, at New England, at Atlanta, and at the Rams and at Tampa and the Rams of Tampa aren't even good. Yeah. So I, you just can't get there. And any, you know, they played Detroit at home. They played Tennessee at home. The schedule, they're playing all the bad teams in the league and I don't see how they
Starting point is 00:37:23 won't go to Tennessee. This might be an adjusted this could be an adjusted win thing for us, right? Well, I saw the 11 plus wins is plus 210, which I thought was pretty enticing. You know, the one seed is 17
Starting point is 00:37:38 to 1. That seems a little outrageous, but they probably have to go 13 to 4. I'm not ready to do that, but Carr was good two years ago. I don't know what happened on last year. He looked like a shot boxer. Right. And he just looked like he didn't want to get hit anymore.
Starting point is 00:37:51 He'll lose a game that he shouldn't. Yeah, people freak out. But I'm two in on Carr. I have over 22.5 touchdown passes. Yeah. I have a minus 165. Fandel has, by division, you could bet who's going to be the top passer by the division.
Starting point is 00:38:05 Carr to have the most passing yards in the NFC South. I like that. Atlanta is next. This was the single hardest team for me. And I changed my mind, I would say, 130 times. The over-under is 8.5. You want to think about it a little more? I might.
Starting point is 00:38:21 Plus 210 for the division. Last year, they were 7-10. They took Bijan Robinson with the eighth pick, which was just bizarre, but then also kind of awesome. But it was the best spot on their team because they had Tyler RG or they had Cordell Patterson.
Starting point is 00:38:38 1,700 yards between those guys. So I wasn't looking at that team going, you know what they need? A running back, but he's going to be really fun to watch. they took Bates from Cincinnati they added all these starters whatever house is excited about it um I can't get there with Ritter and if I'm wrong I'm wrong but from what I saw and I bet on two of the games and I just I just didn't see it I don't know what he's good at yeah so I can't get there. So I have them.
Starting point is 00:39:06 I actually have them slightly over at nine and eight because the schedule is so easy. Really? After that? All that? I had five hard games at Detroit, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, at Chicago, and at New Orleans. That's it for hard games. And at Chicago, it might not even be a hard game. But their home games are ludicrous. Green Bay is their hardest home game.
Starting point is 00:39:23 You know, they have zero rest advantage. They don't have a rest advantage in any game. Well, because that kind home game. You know, they have zero rest advantage. They don't have a rest advantage in any game. That kind of matters. You know why? Because they play every Sunday. They're just Sunday in the afternoon every game. They have one London game in week four, but
Starting point is 00:39:37 other than that, it's just one o'clock or four o'clock every week for the rest of the season. And the Bears and Jets on the road in December is not ideal, I think. Yeah, this is the one that jumped out at me. Monday's come out in April. Yeah. I saw Atlanta eight and a half.
Starting point is 00:39:52 I was like, oh, my God. How? Why? Why? Yeah, that seemed too high. I know they were gamers last year for a while. But, yeah, I'm with you. I don't think Robinson, I think you draft the running back that early
Starting point is 00:40:04 if you're one piece away from making it to the Super Bowl and they're not. And like we said, they had Patterson and Algier were good. I think they screwed up. They had a lot of cap space. They could have gone after Lamar Jackson and I think they're going to regret not doing so. This is the most hyped non-playoff team in the NFC. Yeah. Maybe next to the Lions. I don't feel 100% on it. I'll say that. Like, if they went 10-7 and Ritter turned out to be a little better than we saw last year, I'm not going to be shocked. Right. Yeah, well, these South Divisions suck. I just think New Orleans is a safer bet.
Starting point is 00:40:36 But I don't feel good about any of this. I certainly wouldn't bet on it. I will bet on the next thing, though. I think Carolina's going to suck. And once we decided we were doing this Sunday show for FanDuel TV, then I'm super excited about this live pregame gambling show with you and Raheem and House and JJ. We all ended up on this text thread. Right. And I was in Boston with my daughter and I was listening to their podcast.
Starting point is 00:41:02 It was like a parent corner, but you're Joe House's parent. It's a Joe House parent corner. And House was saying, he mentioned a couple of times that Frank Reich was a good coach, and now that Frank Reich is there. And we just, it turned into this four-hour text fight because there is zero evidence that Frank Reich is a good coach. Zero. And including, and then House, who does a podcast this week, and now he's like,
Starting point is 00:41:25 you know who could have the worst record in the league? Carolina. And just basically pees all over my Carolina stuff. Frank Reich, 0-4-1 in opening weeks. Oh, man. What did he say? I forgot. Bet-take stealer, Joe House. Bet-take stealer.
Starting point is 00:41:41 But he went from Frank Reich was the best coach in the... Anyway, I'm mad at House. House and I are in a fight. I'm going to deprive him of spare ribs. So just go under. But Frank Reich is a bad coach. There's no evidence that he's a good coach. He was bad in Indianapolis.
Starting point is 00:41:55 They had a different quarterback every year that he brought. The team was underprepared. He was so bad that his owner fired him and hired a guy from TV thinking they'd be better off. And then he goes to Carolina like quarterback whisperer, Frank Gregg. He's a quarterback whisperer? This Nick Foles thing, Nick Foles winning the Super Bowl
Starting point is 00:42:12 because the Patriots had Matt Patricia, who's one of the worst coaches of all time in any sport. And Nick Foles looks good. And then it becomes Frank Gregg, quarterback whisperer. All he did was run quarterbacks into the ground in Indianapolis over and over again. Phil Rivers did the best, and he ended up retiring. Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Jacoby Brissett.
Starting point is 00:42:33 Pick a quarterback. They all look terrible. Their offensive line was just getting annihilated in the preseason. I feel bad for Bryce Young because I like Bryce Young, and I like this Carolina team last year. I think they're going to stink. Wow. So three or four wins?
Starting point is 00:42:49 Put them in the bottom there? I have them at four and 13. Interesting. I had them at seven, but you might have convinced me now to put it at zero. I don't know. And as bad as Reich has been, and you brought that up, but this GM Tepper, this GM is on the hot seat. He's five seasons, five quarterbacks,
Starting point is 00:43:06 plus hired Matt Rule. So it's got to work out eventually for this, but how could it? New head coach, new OC, new DC, new quarterback isn't usually a good formula. Yeah, I'm going under here. They were up 21-0 against Tampa. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:22 And they kind of stumbled into a recipe. We were betting on them a bunch of times second half of the year. This power run game. Not asking Darnold to do too much. Their defense is actually pretty good. I had six chippers on the team. Brown, Burns, Thompson,
Starting point is 00:43:38 Luvo, Horn, and Chin. Their defense is going to keep them in games, which is why maybe they get a little higher. I just think they're going to have the worst offense in the league. They have the worst skill position guys in the league. But they had Thielen, Sanders, I don't know. Thielen's done. Those guys are done. They have no run game. And Bryce Young, rookie
Starting point is 00:43:53 QB, just running for his life. And they got the defensive, like J.C. Horn and Dante Jackson both missed 10 games over the last two years. But it's interesting. They blow that Tampa game, and they should have won. Wilks gets fired. Tampa limps into the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:44:11 Your team destroys them. Brady retires. But they should have beaten Tampa, and then Wilks probably stays. I don't know what they do with the Bryce Young pick. Maybe they trade it. Well, should our overall, before we even get to Tampa, advice for people betting the NFC South be to just sit back for a little bit? I feel like we changed our minds three times.
Starting point is 00:44:30 Don't do it. And the best quarterback in football barely won it and ended up winning it. I do like New Orleans, though. Yeah. So are you in on New Orleans? Yeah, I don't mind that. New Orleans is the one to division. Even odds.
Starting point is 00:44:41 But it's an infuriating division. It really is. Yeah, this is definitely like, don't throw anyone from this division in a tease because God only knows. No. Tampa, they're over under six and a half.
Starting point is 00:44:55 I got slight under. I have them like five and 12, six and 11. I have them six. Yeah, there's not a ton to like about them. Worst quarterback situation in the league, right? Yeah. Kyle Trask, Baker Mayfield. And Baker. Yeah. It's his 14th. I can't say I'm a huge to like about him. Worst quarterback situation in the league, right? Yeah. Kyle Trask, Baker Mayfield.
Starting point is 00:45:05 And Baker. Yeah. It's his fourth team. I can't say I'm a huge Todd Bowles fan. He's definitely right up there. First coach fired. Fourth team since last June for Baker. That's almost impossible.
Starting point is 00:45:16 And I just don't know what kind of identity. I told you, like, Brady threw, like, 733 passes last year. Yeah. And they had 1,300 rushing yards. So I don't know. This could be it for bowls. Still big names, which is weird, right? It's Evans.
Starting point is 00:45:30 It's Godwin. People get excited for that. Devin White, Shaq Barrett, Levante David. Worfs. Yeah. And I don't think it, but I don't think it adds up. I really don't. I have them six.
Starting point is 00:45:38 Yeah. I'm wondering if it goes the other way where maybe they become a seller around week five, week six. Yeah. And try to get into the. They did what the Rams did, right? They mortg mortgage the future for a super bowl and uh they got it their schedule they they week 11 to 15 they're at san francisco at indianapolis at atlanta and at green bay so they actually have six road games out of eight going from week eight to week 15,
Starting point is 00:46:08 starting with at Buffalo on a Thursday in week eight. I just think they're going to get it. Yeah, that's what's killer because they play a first-place schedule and they're projected to come in fourth. Their extra games are Philly, at San Francisco, and at Buffalo. It doesn't get worse than that. So before we leave the NFC South, what's the highest possible record Atlanta would get and the lowest possible record?
Starting point is 00:46:26 Because I really am intrigued by them. Like I could see them be, if Ritter could just out of nowhere be like what Kenny Pickett was doing in the last four games last year. Because they are talented. And they can block and they do have weapons. And I like their coach.
Starting point is 00:46:41 I'm so against them. I have the minus 120 to not make the playoffs. Yeah, I'm with you. But could you see them going 6-11? Yeah, that's what I have. Could you see them going 11-6?
Starting point is 00:46:53 I don't know. But this division, like I said, don't be surprised and try not to watch it unless they play your favorite team. Something worries me about them.
Starting point is 00:47:02 All right, we're going to take a break. Last division coming up NFC West. All right, we're going to take a break. Last division coming up, NFC West. All right, the San Francisco 49ers, over under 10 and a half, mainly because of some schedule stuff
Starting point is 00:47:16 and some rest stuff. It's just like you look at it, there's five night games for them. They're playing on two Thursdays and two Mondays. They're playing on two Thursdays and two Mondays. They're all over the place. We have to be very careful with this because people take shots at us because we've wavered with Chanahan.
Starting point is 00:47:33 Remember we used to go over his record when he was hovering right around 500? Who? What people? People on the internet? People on X. Very, very. On X? Not ecstasy.
Starting point is 00:47:42 My X replies? Probably ecstasy. I didn't realize. Yeah, a lot of X replies. Got to check the X replies. But I have no idea. I'm going to come out and say, and I have no idea how Shanahan or Lynch are going to be remembered.
Starting point is 00:47:53 Didn't we pick them to win the Super Bowl and have money on them and we're rooting for them two years ago? Maybe. That's what I'm doing this year. Because they're very freaking successful. They're one of the best teams of the 2020s, right? Oh, wait. So you're in on San Francisco. I am. I'm going way over. Shit, I'm doing this year because they're very freaking successful. They're one of the best teams of the 2020s. Oh, wait. So you're in on San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:48:06 I am. I'm going way over. I'm in too. I just read that they were going to win the Super Bowl on our pre-roll or mid-roll. Right? Yeah. They're winning. They're winning it.
Starting point is 00:48:15 I have them as 13 and four. Yeah. And I think they're going to have the best record in the league. Right there with you. The only thing that makes me nervous is quarterback. But we both like Purdy last year I thought Purdy was pretty good they are so loaded my scoring system they were the highest team with players
Starting point is 00:48:32 they had five on offense they have seven on defense not to mention Shanahan they just have guys loaded everywhere the only case against them would be Purdy just completely shits the bed
Starting point is 00:48:48 like completely yeah how long is it going to take before the Mr. Irrelevant with the UCL injury throws three interceptions everyone's like I told you so 30 for 30 is coming yeah exactly so that's a little scary when Sam Darnold is lurking
Starting point is 00:49:04 well there seems like there's some legitimate like Shanahan kind of digs Sam Darnold. Like, don't be surprised. Yeah. Some Sam Darnold buzz. I'm good with Sam Darnold. He's such a maniac. I'll never forgive Sam Darnold for that 21-0 Carolina Tampa when we had the Carolina division money and we had all bet and we had to hedge. We could have hedged at halftime.
Starting point is 00:49:24 It's like, ah, Sam Darnold can't blow this. I'll never forgive him. You won't? No. We got to figure that out. We got to sort that out. The only other thing I can think of for them would be just the injuries because of like the lack of rest.
Starting point is 00:49:35 Like they have, they're getting crushed on the rest part, which is always a bad sign. Debo, McCaffrey, not exactly like Cal Ripken. Right. 20 fewer rest days and defense is what usually slows down first but I just think it's so damn loaded that defense and that's why I don't really care who's the quarterback but I mean
Starting point is 00:49:54 think about what this team has done like three years ago Jimmy G's up 10 the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl they lose two years ago great NFC championship game Cooper Cup goes nuts otherwise they make it back. Last year, they had seven quarterbacks injured in one game. They couldn't beat the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:50:10 Right. We'll never even know what could have happened. Yeah. So, you know, McCaffrey turned them around, gave them a boost. But I honestly think they could even survive without him and get to double digits in this division. Can I make a gambling suggestion? No, I don't think so.
Starting point is 00:50:22 If you like them for Super Bowl, I would wait a week because I think they might actually lose that Pittsburgh game week one. And wait, maybe bump that to like, maybe it bumps to, oh, 0-1, Purdy, two picks. And then bet them when it's like 12-1, 13-1, heading into week two against the Rams.
Starting point is 00:50:39 Because you know they'll kill the Rams. They play the Giants at home on a Thursday week three and then Arizona week four. There'll be three and one coming out of those four. And then they got your team week five at Cleveland at Minnesota.
Starting point is 00:50:52 It's just an automatic four games against Arizona and the Rams. Right. But it really. Yeah. So if you say those are an automatic four,
Starting point is 00:50:59 they just got to go nine and four in the other 13. Yeah. And they're absolutely loaded and their schedules, I got to say, not as hard as i thought it was going to be well you talked about the 22 rest disadvantaged days but uh yeah
Starting point is 00:51:10 other than that they should beat up on a lot of these teams and have a good record going in and they will score every game even odds they uh they just have too much talent and i know football we talk about it every year when we do Guest Alliance about that circle of seven, eight teams that can win every year and you get to the January and then it becomes about four and you need a couple breaks and they just never got the break when they needed it. But it's sitting there
Starting point is 00:51:36 and I really like Purdy. The nerd community is a little down on Purdy and they're like, there was a couple drop picks with him last year, but I don't know. I liked his poise. I liked his presence. He was phenomenal. I don't think they need like an amazing quarterback
Starting point is 00:51:49 for the amount of weapons they have. Just they need somebody to just. That's what's so strange about this team. They don't need a great quarterback. They really don't need a great running back, even though McCaffrey did good things, but they won without him. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:00 Two years, I mentioned before. He's a maniac. He took a kicker in the third round after not having two firsts, a first or a second. Nuts. You like Seattle over eight and a half? One of the most suspicious over-unders
Starting point is 00:52:13 in this whole thing. Yeah, it is suspicious. But I hate the dealer's hand so much that I'm going to stay with my bad hand too. Not that Seattle's bad. Over eight and a half. Again, I think they win four games against the bottom. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:27 And look, they're big winners getting rid of Russ, right? And then they beat him in the first game of the season and they kept going from there. And I know you don't like to see it, but Pete Carroll, dynamite coach. I like to see it. I like Pete Carroll. That's right.
Starting point is 00:52:39 You won that Super Bowl. We're a ringer podcast. Right. I keep thinking of him. We beat him in a Super Bowl. I love Pete Carroll. I thought he left the podcast. Yeah. If they go 4-0 against those two teams in the West
Starting point is 00:52:48 and then they go 5-4 against everybody else that's 9-8 and they cover. Weird stuff with the defense. They gave up the third most rush yards. I don't love their defense. They gave up a lot of big plays like nine touchdowns with 20 yards or more, but I think Geno keeps it going and you can't say enough about Bobby Wagner
Starting point is 00:53:04 when he's getting that guy back. We talked about him on the Fantasy Pod we did on Tuesday. That Walker, I thought was really good last year before he got hurt. Metcalf-Lockett, JSN, the rookie. That's what I've chosen to call him.
Starting point is 00:53:20 I'm going acronym. Hyphen names I always screw up. The other rookie, yeah, Sharman. And then Witherspoon. Good'm going acronym. Hyphen name's I always screw up. The other rookie, yeah, Sharman. And then Witherspoon. Good defense. Good backup for Kenneth Walker. And then they pick Witherspoon. There's two awesome cornerbacks. And over and over again,
Starting point is 00:53:36 those high first round cornerbacks come in and they're usually really good. They're usually impactful right away like Sauce was. I don't know if they'll be as good as Sauce, but yeah, that seems, in that division. That's a good team. It's almost,
Starting point is 00:53:50 what were their odds to make the playoffs? Is it even for them to make the playoffs in the NFC? Yeah. It's going to be hard for them not to. Rams, six and a half. I struggled with this one a little. They were five and 12 last year.
Starting point is 00:54:04 Because I was thinking, would McVay tank because we, we lost money in that game last year when he just decided to win on like a Thursday night with Baker Mayfield. Yeah. And it, it just sends chills down my spine thinking about it. One of the worst gambling losses the last couple of years, my guess is he's not going to tank early, but then you look at their schedule and it's at Seattle, San Francisco,
Starting point is 00:54:28 at Cincinnati, at Indianapolis, home Philly. And they could be on five after those first five or one and four. And then maybe by the time they get to this at Dallas, at Green Bay stretch in eight, nine, maybe they start going, what are we doing yeah let's let's start packing it maybe they shut stafford down maybe cooper cups got some sort of hamstring i'm going under i don't like betting against teams because of injuries with guys like i said are healthy right now but i'm betting against two i'm betting against stafford he's a 35 year old with a spine injury yeah i think they're winking at i'm like hey you did good for us kid yeah thanks for the super ball yeah take it easy.
Starting point is 00:55:05 Don't hurt yourself. Enjoy your wife. Keep her off social media, and you're going to be just fine. But I love the under in a big way. McVay's the only thing. I think great odds, 10-1 odds for the Rams to have the worst record. I really do. And I like them to have fewer wins somehow than this Arizona team.
Starting point is 00:55:24 They told McVay that the over-under, we do and i like them that fewer wins somehow than this arizona team we're gonna this they told mcveigh that the over under they actually told them his over on their wins was six and a half and he said oh man that was his reaction oh man and i think it was like not like that's crazy we're definitely beating no i think it's like oh man how do we get to six and a half uh that's often what do they have like 30 undrafted? Yeah, with 26 undrafted free agents. Their draft is a mess. 36 is the earliest they've picked since 2016. So you're going to see Stetson Bennett.
Starting point is 00:55:53 You're going to see Brett Rippon in there, I think. And this Rams team is rough. Donald should have retired. They play almost all, they play all really above average teams on the road, except for Indy. They play at Seattle, at Cincinnati, at Dallas, at Green Bay, at Baltimore, at the Giants, at San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:56:10 Then they have home San Francisco, home Pittsburgh. That's one in nine, just for those 10. I think you're betting the Jersey if you're betting the Rams at all, honestly. Also, what are their home games going to be like? Right, that's another one. So they'll have all the Philly fans will be there in week five.
Starting point is 00:56:30 All the Pittsburgh fans will be there week seven. That'll be the worst place on earth. All the Seattle fans will fly in for week 11. Well, now it's getting like there's more 49ers fans there. Not that they would lose that. All right, last but not least, except in this case, there's a huge least. It's they would lose that. Alright, last but not least,
Starting point is 00:56:46 except in this case, there's a huge least. It's the Arizona Cardinals. Their over-under is 4.5 and it seems high. I'm going under. I've actually bet this. I bet the under. I don't see any scenario that they go 5-12. Why is this even odds at 4.5? Because I think people are worried Kyler Murray
Starting point is 00:57:02 is going to come back and get the ball rolling on them. I want to be the only one in the country to go over. I don't even see the wins on their schedule, how they could go over, but I was outraged when they cut Colt McCoy, and then I looked at his last three games. No touchdowns, one interception
Starting point is 00:57:17 for all three games. I was like, oh, what do I care about Colt McCoy? It doesn't really matter at this point. I know teams don't tank, but that isaiah simmons was really something else like that was a good player they got a seventh round pick you thought he was good i'd seem like they didn't know what to do with them i don't know i could never i'm going by the numbers maybe they're misleading but the pff good uh but just how many tackles he's just a makes a ton of tackles. But anyway, maybe Kyler does come back. I have them winning five games. So I did my player rankings.
Starting point is 00:57:48 Yeah. As I've mentioned nine times, they were by far the lowest. I had them at three points. I only had them with two guys who ranked Buda Baker and Humphries, the tackle who came back. Right. Other than that, it doesn't seem like they have any above average, close to elite players in their entire roster. So, and I don't know what they do with Kyler Murray
Starting point is 00:58:06 down the stretch. Alright, so to recap, division odds. You're going Dallas plus 175 NFC East or you're going Philly? Yeah, it's more than that. Oh, no, it's plus 175. Yeah, I have them both at 11 wins, so I might as well take the plus number. I'm going my team.
Starting point is 00:58:23 I'm going to take Philly, but Dallas is a better bet. And I wouldn't bet that because I think that's a toss-up between those two. NFC North, you love Minnesota plus 260. I love Green Bay plus 350. We'll see. It's going to be fun. Going head-to-head.
Starting point is 00:58:36 NFC South, we both like New Orleans plus 130. Definitely gave Atlanta a long look at plus 210, but couldn't talk ourselves into it. And then last but not least, San Fran, we love minus one 65. Yeah. They gave ourselves a break with the two West division winners.
Starting point is 00:58:58 So they have exact orders on FanDuel. And there is a 49 or Seahawks Rams Cardinals in that order. It's plus 250. Or you can get frisky and go 49ers Seahawks Cardinals Rams.
Starting point is 00:59:16 That's plus 550. That's the one I have written down. I don't think those odds are good enough. No? My favorite of all of these, which is one you won't agree with because you don't think the Packers are going to win the division. Oh, you'll get good odds on that.
Starting point is 00:59:29 Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears is 17-1. Should be 50-1. Don't get snarky with me. I don't know. Boy, everybody hated Jordan Love, but now it's like because Rodgers is gone, he's going to win 10, 11, 12 games. AFC South.
Starting point is 00:59:48 Good luck. Would you put Colts third or Titans third? We are Texans. We have third, right? Good luck to you, Ben, of trying to figure out the South from one through four. I had Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucks, eight to one. No, I'm saying AFC South.
Starting point is 01:00:04 Oh, AFC. We're back to AFC? Well, I was just looking at the odds.thers, Bucks, 8-1. No, I'm saying AFC South. Oh, AFC. We're back to AFC? Well, I was just looking at the odds. Oh, yeah. Here it is. Titans, Jaguars, Texans, Colts, which I think is the order we like. We like that. That's 12-1.
Starting point is 01:00:18 Yeah. Let's do that. That's pretty good. Yeah, just bet everything. I mean, that's like the most responsible thing you could do at this point. I would say don't bet the AFC North
Starting point is 01:00:27 and definitely stay away from the NFC South. Although if the NFC South, I guess you could throw in Carolina and fourth place and try to hit it. I think that's the division you could wait on.
Starting point is 01:00:36 Yeah. Wait until after the season. All right, that's it, Sal. We've run through the NFC. We ran through the AFC yesterday and now we're going to run through the season. We can see you on FanDuel on Fridays.
Starting point is 01:00:49 What's the show called? Cousin Sal's Winning Weekend? That's what we settled on. Got it. 55 titles later, we got it. And then Sundays, Wise Guys, 11 to 12 on FanDuel TV. E.T., you, Joe House, Raheem Palmer, John Jastrzemski. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:01:02 We're going to be doing all of our bets. We're going to be putting it on all platforms. We'll probably run until 1230 that night. Very excited for Wise Guys. Wow. I might invite myself on as the first guest of Wise Guys. Are you going to? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:01:13 And then I figured I'd come on for two seconds and then I'd get shot in the back of the head like Joe Pesci. Oh, no. Yeah. I'd fake it though. I wouldn't really get shot. I'd be right there for you, buddy. Slamming the payphone down repeatedly.
Starting point is 01:01:23 No. I can't wait for that. It's great to have you back. Good job on you, buddy. Slamming the payphone down. I can't wait for that. It's great to have you back. Good job on you, buddy. Good job on you. All right. That is it for the NFC Over-Unders and part one of our staggered two-part Sunday extravaganza. Remember, we have part two is going to be Guest Alliance
Starting point is 01:01:41 and some leftover futures is going up midnight ET. And you can hear Sal and I on FanDuel TV and watch us. You can see our beautiful faces on Monday morning and Tuesday morning at 10 a.m. doing the AFC and NFC over under pods. Don't forget about that FanDuel boost as well. Plus 130 on the app. Niners, Chiefs, Eagles, all to make the playoffs. And I will see you later tonight for part two. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti for producing as always. And we will see you late night. I don't have a few years with him on the wayside
Starting point is 01:02:31 I'm a bruised son I don't have a few years with him on the wayside Must be 21 plus in president select states.
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