The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 1: The Bryson Coaster, Plus NBA Over/Unders With Joe House

Episode Date: August 30, 2021

In Part 1 of a two-part Sunday-night podcast The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss the drama on the course at the BMW Championship between Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay..., and the excitement it brought to Bill and House (2:15), before discussing a few NBA win-totals bets that they have been eyeing (16:20). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Fantasy football is back, and you don't want your team to suck. My favorite fantasy football punishment I've ever heard is the last place guy had to spend 24 hours in a waffle house, and every waffle he ate was one hour off of his count. I want numbers. How many did he end up eating? 12 waffles in 12 hours. I'm Danny Heifetz. I'm Danny Kelly. And I'm Craig Horlbeck.
Starting point is 00:00:20 We host the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a waffle house, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a Waffle House, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sportsbook is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the
Starting point is 00:00:49 Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch your pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs, the next drive, they have so much stuff, it's crazy. The app is safe and secure and easy to use. And when you win, you'll get paid instantly. Plus, look out for FanDuel Squares this season. Here's what you have to do.
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Starting point is 00:02:41 Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by Fando Sportsbook as well as The Ringer and The Ringer Podcast Network where we finished the Gene and Roger narrative podcast last week. It was about Siskel and Ebert. It was excellent. It ran on the Big Picture Movie Podcast. And if you want to listen to all eight episodes,
Starting point is 00:02:58 you can go search for Gene and Roger on Spotify. The playlist will come up with all eight episodes so you can check it out there. You should listen to your podcast on Spotify anyway. It's a better experience. Sean Fennessey is back on The Big Picture if you missed that. New rewatchables coming on Monday night. The 20th anniversary of a movie called Hardball with Keanu Reeves is coming up, which has a very, very interesting legacy. And Van Lathan and I are going to break that down for you on Monday night.
Starting point is 00:03:27 So you can check that out. We have a bunch of Ringer Podcast Network announcements that we're going to be making this week. Looking forward to that. Coming up, this is part one of a two-part podcast. Joe House and I are going to talk about a little golf, a little Bryson versus Kent Lane, the whole Bryson era,
Starting point is 00:03:42 as well as we're going to do some NBA over-unders for you because the first wave of odds came out. So we're going to check that out. And then part two, which is coming up a little bit later tonight on Sunday night, Warren Sharp joins us. Me and House and Sharp
Starting point is 00:03:56 are going to do NBA sleepers and grenades. The teams that we thought are great bets to either overachieve or underachieve. But really, we're just going to talk football. So this was so long. We had to split this into two parts.
Starting point is 00:04:08 Part one is coming up with house. It's all next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right, Joe House is here. Sharp's coming up in a little bit. We don't have Drunk House tonight. We have Buzz and Giddy Joe House. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:04:41 We're going to do a little golf and we're going to do a little basketball and then we're going to dive into the football with sharp. The reason we're doing a little golf is because golf owned the weekend today. And unbelievable, whatever the F the BMW event is called with the cars on the tees, which I love. BMW championship. I was why I was toggling between that the Red Sox were going, um, I was watching some preseason football and there was this Bryson can't lay moment on the 14th where Bryson got pissy at can't lay. Cause he thought he was moving on one of his shots. So he said something and then
Starting point is 00:05:20 it was on. And then we had one of the greatest back and forth, non-major things I've ever seen in my life. It went on forever. It was six playoff holes. Bryson choked, I don't know, five times. And then Cantlay finally, uh, won it house best non-major thing that's happened in golf in the last couple of years. When was the last time we had something like this? Oh, that's a great question. Uh, Best non-major. So we've had some decent moments over the 20 months after the restart.
Starting point is 00:05:52 I'm trying to think, you know, there's been a lot of guys that have come out of nowhere. A lot of old guys winning on tour. But in terms of, and there have been playoffs. Like, we've been on this incredible, unprecedented run of tournaments ending in playoffs over the last 10 weeks, 15 weeks on the PGA Tour. But nothing where the stakes were this high and the players were this good.
Starting point is 00:06:18 We haven't had a playoff of players of this stature, two guys inside the top 10, uh, in the world ranking two guys, um, that are definitely going to be on the Ryder cup. They're going to be teammates. Well, and, and then the level and the level of pissiness that was involved. I, I did a rare tweet. I said, I, after white Lotus, I hadn't seen this much passive aggressive jousting. And now this was like a white Lotus episode. It was great. I loved it. Bryson was doing Bryson was storming off the tee, right? As Kent lay was finishing his drives. And at one point it looked like he walked right over his mark on one of the playoff holes. They choose all kinds of shit that doesn't happen in golf. I loved that house. There was gamesmanship for sure. And some of it I think has to do with Bryson's own desperation because
Starting point is 00:07:07 he has not been good, uh, in, in this situation this season, really since, um, the U S open when he shot 44 on the back nine, he had a chance to win the U S open. He was in the leader tied for the lead. And, um, you know, there's been a whole series of tournaments this season where he's been in that position and shot not, not great scores. I mean, he just, uh, has, has, uh, spit the bit a little bit like, look at this at the U S open. He shot a 44 at, um, in Memphis, uh, Verno's hometown. He had a chance to win. He shot a 41. That was like three weeks ago at the PGA championship. He shot a 40, the masters and the players.
Starting point is 00:07:50 He shot 38. All these are all in the back nine on Sunday. So there's, there's, you can see it on his face too. That's the thing. You know, today he did not choke though.
Starting point is 00:08:03 I wouldn't say I, I, the only shot that was, was the chip on 17, the chip on 17. What was not what a professional does a professional golfer does the putt. So wait to recap for people listening who missed it three holes after the little incident on 14, can't lay hits the par hits in the water, and he's down a stroke. Bryson is basically in the rough next to the green. It's a chip and a putt, and the tournament's over. That's a fact. He scuffs the chip. It goes, what, six feet?
Starting point is 00:08:36 Yeah, he chunks it. It's a chunky. It's a 35-foot chip that goes six feet. He made it onto the green, but it's not what you expect out of a professional and certainly not out of somebody that is intending to go win a golf tournament. But he also gacked every single makeable putt he had. I mean, he just didn't make any of them. And he kept pushing them left. He had a bunch of opportunities to win the golf tournament. Now, if you are thinking of, of being generous with Bryson, a lot of his putts hit the hole. It wasn't an issue. You sound like you're talking about your own son, making excuses for him after some sort of youth sports event. It wasn't Bryson.
Starting point is 00:09:16 His putts hit the hole. I mean, they didn't go in, but they didn't, they didn't go in because there was a pace problem. And can't lay to be fair to Bryson had an all-time putting performance in the history of the strokes gained putting metric which they started tracking in 2004 great that was the single best performance in the history of the PGA tour he gained almost 15 strokes against the field by way of putting that's, that's literally unprecedented and, and, you know, big balls on Cantley. That's all you could say. Big balls. He loved it. He was passive aggressively tested by Bryson and then it went back and forth and, and he pulled it off. So big picture with Bryson, because this is now what a two year
Starting point is 00:10:01 odyssey with this guy where he has become the most compelling character in golf, really at the same time that Tiger did his exit stage left for a variety of reasons. Yeah. Um, Bryson to me, and then look, I'm sure somebody else has made this analogy, but to cross sports, he reminds me of like Shaq in the early two thousands or something, this overpowering center went, but yet I'm in the last four minutes of the game and I kind of can't go to him. And it's just, you're watching it and you're going, how is this guy not destroying everybody? But there are all these other nuances to the game where in Shaq's case, he actually needed help, right? He got the help because he, you know, Colby would step up or
Starting point is 00:10:39 somebody who could make a three stuff like that with Bryson. It's just you. And you had the situation that we had in the playoff hole today where it's the par five 18 that I think they part four or part four that I think they played four out of the six playoff holes and he's bombing these drives. Right. He's like, fuck it. I'm using my driver.
Starting point is 00:10:58 This is the one thing I'm good at. He's bombing these drives. And even like his approaches weren't bad, but then anything around the green, it's the equivalent of like Shaq being fouled in the last four minutes. Like it's just this hole that in golf, I'm not, you know, look, he's in the mix all the time.
Starting point is 00:11:15 I'm not saying he's, well, he's never, like he's clearly the most talented everything, but all the little stuff that makes golf great. But it's at some point, it feels like this could sink him psychologically. Oh, well, I mean, we literally talk about Bryson DeChambeau and his psychology on every
Starting point is 00:11:34 fairway roll. You do. It's a topic. Literally, because it is so fascinating. He is so unprecedented. There is an innovation, an unmatched innovation that he has attempted over the last 20 plus months to reinvent, um, his, you know, an approach to the game by conquering it with, with length. And, you know, the, the big question along the way was, okay,
Starting point is 00:12:01 the length is one thing, but there's also a finesse element. He had the finesse element when he won the U S open at wing foot. I mean, you know, he was able to hit short wedges out of diabolical rough and then, and then make putts, but the ongoing, you know, constant kind of, of scrutiny is on his mental fortitude. And now I went through the numbers there and all of those significant tournaments over the last six months where he has not been up to it. And there's a bunch of, of like just background collateral damage. That's out there.
Starting point is 00:12:36 A lot of self-inflicted wounds. He changed his caddy. He had the COVID that kept him out of the Olympics. He talked about, he had a take on getting vaccinated. That seems sort of out of step with the majority of thinking around this, for a guy that's supposed to be science-based. So a lot of just, you know, his, he's trying to, to do the thing with Brooks Koepka, uhka and has been on the receiving end of that. So, you know, it's a fascinating study.
Starting point is 00:13:10 He really is the most compelling guy. But, you know, it would be nice to get the W's along with it. If he had won today and validated what we've been sort of looking at in terms of quality of play. If he had, you know, clinched today and took back the narrative around being sort of a choker on the back nines of these things. Sort of. You know, it'd be a different story. He has another opportunity next week
Starting point is 00:13:36 at the Tour Championship, though. You add it all up, and this is the best thing that's happened to golf in the last two years. Other than Mickelson winning the major, but that's a one weekend event that comes and goes as great as it was. As fun as it was.
Starting point is 00:13:49 People move on the next day. To actually build, if you think about this almost like professional wrestling, they've been able to build this Brock Lesnar type, seemingly invincible character that you can still kind of get. That't lay the, the,
Starting point is 00:14:07 that one par four that 18 that they're playing over and over again and him being, what was he? 30 yards, 40 yards behind him. And yet just trying to figure out how to outwit and outplay him anyway. And I just love it. I can't remember. I've been watching golf my whole life. I can't remember another golfer whose physical gifts seem so intimidating and yet it still felt like you could get them when it really mattered, right?
Starting point is 00:14:32 That's the thing, right? There is a guy out there who had the physical gifts that put him so far above everybody else we felt like we'd never seen it before and that was Tiger Woods. Yeah, but you couldn't get Tiger. That's what made him the GOAT. That's right.
Starting point is 00:14:47 He had all the gifts and he crushed you. I guess the last going back, like Greg Norman, I felt like athletically, and I don't know if the stats back this up, but just like in the moment watching golf from basically late eighties through the mid nineties, it just felt like he was the most talented one. Like if you, if you're just taking a talent test, he had the most, but then he's another one, you know,
Starting point is 00:15:09 he was super, that's why there's, there's a 30 for 30 being made about it right now. You know, he's very gettable Greg Norman. Yeah. You could, you could get them on the,
Starting point is 00:15:17 but anyway, the Bryson thing I think is great for golf and who knows if we'll ever see Tiger again. And at the age he's hitting pretty soon, it's probably not happening for him anymore. But the golf is really positioned nicely with these guys. Congratulations to the PGA tour for getting the event in the moment that they, that,
Starting point is 00:15:34 you know, this, this contrived playoff thing that they've come up with where, you know, they put $15 million on the line because the guys don't win enough money through the 45 events that they play and try're trying to create but look they they they deliberately put it into this august time window because it's quiet on the sports calendar and by god we're 15 years in with this thing they grabbed the sunday afternoon they were the dominant thing on television and across the whole
Starting point is 00:16:01 sporting community here in these united states of America. Everybody's tweeting it. Everybody's talking it. So congrats to the tour. Yeah, we had some good baseball today. There's preseason football. There was Little League World Series and I was not expecting golf. Jake Paul was happening at some point.
Starting point is 00:16:18 Today we're taping this late Sunday afternoon. Greatest BMW commercial I think I've ever watched. That's my takeaway from today. This golf tournament. Think about that. You didn't, you text us, BMW should give these guys both a million dollar bonus.
Starting point is 00:16:33 They should. I mean, they got six extra playoff holes of people just saying BMW, BMW, BMW. I thought putting the car on the tee was the smartest thing I've ever seen. I think they should have had
Starting point is 00:16:44 like BMW golf carts. As you know, I am the all-time BMW guy. So that was why I was watching the tournament. Because I was like, I have to support my BMW guys. A Beamer loyalist. You are that if nothing else. All right. We're going to do some basketball over-unders really quickly.
Starting point is 00:17:00 And then we're going to bring Sharp. So FanDuel. I was going, look, we love FanDuel. Those are our people. We know everybody behind the scenes. And they were basically like, yeah, we haven't put out our overrunners yet because it's all football, football, football. We'll get to it. And I was just like, all right, guys, it hurts my feelings. I have to cheat on you. I have to go online and I have to get dirty. I have to go see a hooker to get my dirty odds. The post-free agency numbers, you know, once like most of the free agency dust has settled, it seems like, have been out for three weeks.
Starting point is 00:17:35 I've been checking some sites. There's some bets I've wanted to make. FanDuel said they're coming. And we'll let you know on this podcast when they're out. They like to get them out there when, you know, the podcast when they're out. They like to get them out there when the football's calmed down a tiny bit. We're going to still
Starting point is 00:17:51 bat some around though because the initial ones are out. Some biggest, some of the casinos have the stuff. Yeah, we have thoughts. Yeah, we have some thoughts. So, first of all, actually, let's take a break and then we'll give you our thoughts. football. So if you like zooming out and zooming in on football and all the stuff around it, make sure you follow Ringer FC on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:18:27 How's that, Rye? I reckon I'll do. Yeah, man. Okay, so these are the over-unders that we found online. They're right around. Some sites and some of the casinos might be
Starting point is 00:18:45 off by a half when, but these are generally the ones, the shocking thing to me, the nets are 55, 55 and a half in that range. They have the best odds. Milwaukee, 54 and a half Lakers, 52 and a half Philly, 51 and a half. What, what jumped out first as I looked at this was they seem to think this league is going to have a lot of parity this year. Cause even if you go back and you look at the last full 82 game seasons, there's always teams that win 60 games. You might have to, you'll have somewhere between four to six winning at
Starting point is 00:19:16 least like 53. So I looked at these odds and then you look at the bottom half where the lowest was OKC at 22 and a half. Orlando is 23 and a half. Detroit's 25 and a half. They seem to feel like it's one of these leagues now where everybody's going to be between like 25 and 55 games. I'm not sure I feel that way house. I think we're going to have some good teams. Yes, it's the way they set the number. And I understand at this juncture, right?
Starting point is 00:19:42 It's still August. We're 51 days away from the first NBA game. I counted on the calendar that I think they gave some room for some of these numbers to get driven by by public sentiment, which kind of makes sense to me. Like we usually have numbers in the 56, 57, 58 range right yes uh and and these these numbers look like just um markers right like trial balloons they're just floating them out there to see what kind of reactions because some of these have moved like the knicks have already moved to full games and we'll talk about the knicks at some point but maybe that's why fando's playing it smart maybe they're waiting until everybody's getting
Starting point is 00:20:26 their little test stuff out and then they're going to get it right. Yeah, the Knicks moved two games up or down? Up. Well, they opened at 40 and a half, I saw on some books, and now they're at 42 and a half
Starting point is 00:20:36 on what we're looking at right now. Well, that's dumb. All right. Which is still fine. Let's go through some of the teams we're not going to talk about. Brooklyn. Look, Godspeed if you want to bet on the Brooklyn over-under. You're betting on Kyrie
Starting point is 00:20:48 could disappear for two weeks. You're betting on a bunch of injury possibility. I definitely wouldn't bet the under because if that team stays healthy, they could win 65 games, but I just don't trust it. It's not fun to root for them. That's stay away. Milwaukee's 54 and a half. I like that one because the continuity, but at the same time, like they won the title. I think their goal was just going to be to get to the finals again.
Starting point is 00:21:13 And I don't see them like chasing like a 60 wins. Why are you making a face? You like that one a little more than me. I like it a little more just because of how serious they have taken the regular season in years past. And I do think that the East is improved. because of how serious they have taken the regular season in years past. And, uh, I do think that the East is improved. So the idea that they're a tiny bit down is reasonable to me.
Starting point is 00:21:33 Um, but I think, you know, they lost PJ Tucker. Do you really, is that a loss? I don't know, but it's certainly not a loss offensively.
Starting point is 00:21:40 They picked up George Hill, Grayson. They're going to miss his zero points again. And at some point, Dante DiVincenzo, who apparently is a very important guy, will be back on this team. And I think they can like,
Starting point is 00:21:50 just cruise along to like 57 wins. Because 55 wins, that's 55 and what, 27? Great math house. You did it. That's a lot of losses. You pulled it off, buddy. 27 is a lot of losses.
Starting point is 00:22:03 You know what I mean? So I looked at, the last full season we had was the 2019 season. The Bucks were 60-22. Toronto was 58-24. Golden State was 57-25. So those are three teams that are higher than every over-under we had.
Starting point is 00:22:20 But if you go back to the 2016-17 season, when your beloved Wizards were a four seed. Yeah. Congrats, 49-33. But the East was won by the Celtics at 53-29. LeBron, his last year with the Cavs, they were 51-31. Toronto's 51-31. Washington was 49-33. On the other side, Gold State won 67.
Starting point is 00:22:46 San Antonio won 61. My point is, we have seen conferences when there's parity on one of the conferences where the winds come down. I still feel like Brooklyn or Milwaukee, if they wanted to, could be 60 plus pretty easily, if they wanted to. I'm glad you just made that point and reemphasized it because that's the other thing. Every year, we just continue to creep more and more towards the regular season becoming less and less compelling, less and less relevant. Teams looking for opportunities to rest. Well, do you think that's why the winds are down? Because of the resting epidemic? Tiny bit. Tiny bit, for sure. Yes, yes mean we you know we've seen it there we have proof of concept that that teams will rest guys in an unpredictable way at least unpredictable to us and you know rest is important and you know the league now really emphasizes the playoffs so
Starting point is 00:23:39 teams are willing to sacrifice regular season positioning for the playoffs and you also have the play-in tournament. So it's not like, oh my God, if we're a nine seed, we're actually out. Like you can kind of linger around like your sad ass Wizards team did last year. They were wonderful. So just stay away more. I think stay away for now. I don't want to step on the seven hour podcast.
Starting point is 00:24:01 We're doing the Priscilla probably on like October 15th. Why don't we talk about what you like? Yeah, I'm going to point out a couple. I know what I like. Well, just going down in descending order. The Utah 51 and a half jumped out at me a little bit.
Starting point is 00:24:14 I think it's a stay away, but that seemed high because I think the West and the league in general will be better this year. And I don't think they improved. I think both Utah and Phoenix are two of my absolute favorites on the board. At 51 and a half at what we're looking at.
Starting point is 00:24:28 Unders or overs? Overs. Because both of those teams, Utah was 52 and 20 last year. Yeah. And Phoenix had 51 wins. So we basically like giving them an additional 10 games to play with to hit the over. And I like the formula of both of those teams. Both of those teams have essentially kind of reloaded, prepared themselves to run it back.
Starting point is 00:24:54 And I think the West is down. I think both Denver and the Clippers, look at their numbers. The injuries to Jamal Murray and to Kawhi Leonard means to me that the West is, is gettable. So those guys that, wait, hold on. Let me give those numbers. Go ahead. Denver's 47 and a half. The Clippers are 44 and a half. I'm not touching either one of those, right? Because I have no idea when Jamal Murray's coming back. I have no idea whether Kawhi Leonard's coming back, but those numbers reflect the softness in the West. And so the opportunity is there for teams like Utah and Phoenix with
Starting point is 00:25:33 proven newfound success formulas that work. The personnel is there for them to just go right back out, you know, throw the ball on the court and go get 52 wins. I like that for both of them. I don't like the wear and tear on Phoenix last season, and I'm not convinced we'll get Chris Paul ever as healthy as he was last year. But you, you have additional games to sort of spread it out, right? You can get the rest and still get, you know, to that 52 win, uh, threshold. That's all. That's my thesis. That's all. Here's what matters in the West because we're going to see way more resting.
Starting point is 00:26:08 But you still want to be one of the top four seeds. You still want home court in round one. So the Lakers are the top right now in the West. They're 52 and a half. They'll be in the top four
Starting point is 00:26:17 unless they have another injury epidemic. And then you figure Utah with the infrastructure will be somewhere between like 48, 52 wins. I'm less bullish on Phoenix than you only because I do think there was real wear and tear on them from the playoffs last year. But then you have the, you mentioned Denver and the Clippers as teams that dropped because of injury.
Starting point is 00:26:36 But you have Golden State coming back. Now they're saying Clay's probably not gonna be ready till Christmas. And they're gonna have a lot of young guys. So initially I was like, oh, I'm going to love the Golden State over, but 49 and 33 would have to beat it. I don't love it. I think that's a stay away.
Starting point is 00:26:53 They're working on a lot of young guys at the beginning of the year. And then Clay's basically playing two thirds of the season. Then you have Draymond torching Steve Kerr and Bob Myers. That's a bad start. You don't like that? That's a stay away too. The first West one. So you said you a stay away too. The first West one.
Starting point is 00:27:05 So you said you liked Utah and Phoenix. The first West one I really like is Dallas. Dallas is 47 and a half. And this is a whole package thing to me. I'm not allowed to bet
Starting point is 00:27:14 on the MVP because I have an MVP vote. Luca has the best MVP odds. He's the only one lower than five to one. I think he's plus 440. Porzingis is healthy. We think. They improved 440. Porzingis is healthy. We think,
Starting point is 00:27:26 um, they improved the team. Did that with, uh, I feel like they did. I think they added better shooters. And I think the Carlisle thing was getting weird. I think that whole situation with the front office,
Starting point is 00:27:39 all that stuff. Um, I just feel like now it's like it's Lucas team. We gave him an extension. Um, I just feel like now it's like, it's Lucas team. We gave him an extension. Uh, we, we're going to have a drama free year basically, but this is really a Luca bet. If he's great, we talk about this every year we do over unders, if he's great and he's going to be healthy the whole year, then that should be worth 50 wins. The question for me is, is it like where Giannis got to three, four years ago, where it's like, if we have this guy on our team and we're healthy, it's a rule we win 50 games because we have this guy.
Starting point is 00:28:10 So I'm feeling impatient and I'm going to just acknowledge up front that it's ridiculous to be impatient about Luca because he's what, 24 now? Yeah, this is year 2018 draft. This is year four. Year two was interrupted. And yet last year they had all the shit. This is year four. Year two was interrupted. And yet last year, they had all the shit. They had COVID stuff. They had a bunch of injuries started the season. Remember, they were like, what, 8-15 at one point?
Starting point is 00:28:33 And then they were like a 55-win team from that point on. Yeah, but they needed to be to get into the playoff position that they had. And they lost in the first round of the playoffs again. And he showed up out of shape because he wasn't prepared. but you can't blame him on that though because they didn't know the season was going to start that fast it is what it is he had the lowest mvp odds last season as well and was not really relevant to the conversation i mean there was a little murmur um in the second half because they went on the terror that they went on. But Dallas needs to show me. That, to me, is a stay away.
Starting point is 00:29:08 I understand the point you're making. If, indeed, you believe that he is going to win the MVP this year, then that number is an achievable number. I just need to see it out of them. They've got to do something. One time, Dallas. Do something. I think they'll be better. And I think they were basically a 50-win team
Starting point is 00:29:24 the last two thirds of the season last year. Okay. That's my case. Denver, uh, Atlanta, 46 and a half.
Starting point is 00:29:33 That one seemed that Atlanta and Boston at 46 and a half. Both of those seemed high to me. Now I know Atlanta is another team that, what were they? 30 and 11 down the stretch or whatever. And yes, you know, but not having a Kwongu he's, he's out for, uh-11 down the stretch or whatever? Yes. But not having a Kwongu,
Starting point is 00:29:45 he's out for most of the season, it looks like. And then they got a couple guys playing for new contracts, potentially. But Hunter's coming back. I mean, remember, that tear that they went on was mostly without Hunter, and they were entirely without Hunter for the playoffs. I mean, did he play two games, even? So if we think Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Philly
Starting point is 00:30:07 are the top three in the East, barring some sort of weird Simmons trade, I mean, Philly's over under is 51 and a half. That's a stay away because we have no idea where Simmons is going. That's right. And we have no idea how many games Embiid's going to play.
Starting point is 00:30:20 The four seed, Vegas is saying, Miami at 48 and a half is the best bet to be a four seed versus Atlanta at 46 and a half. Your point earlier is the point. The East is just better. The East, which usually had six, seven shit teams, now has 12 good teams or 12 decent teams, I should say.
Starting point is 00:30:39 Or 12 teams that at least night to night are going to stick up for themselves and play pretty well. And I like the Miami 48 and a half a little more than the Atlanta 46 and a half. I don't really like either though. I wouldn't at this point, I wouldn't bet on either. The 40 and a half seems high to me for Miami. Well, I mean, it depends on, it depends on whether you believe what kind of upgrade are you, are you going to build in with, with Lowry? And a big part of that is your view of that Lowry, Jimmy Butler chemistry. How much do you invest in that intangible?
Starting point is 00:31:13 I would just rather bet on them to win the division or win the East than I would for the over because the wins, it's going to be minus 110, minus 115, even whatever it is. I'm not really getting odds. And for them to go 49 and 33 would mean that Lowry stayed healthy the whole year. And a couple of their other bench bets came through and stuff like that. I think the East is going to be good. The 46 and a half for the Celtics seems too high to me too. I agree with that number being too high for the Celtics.
Starting point is 00:31:46 I don't think that the Celtics got better in the offseason. If you told me we're going to go 46 and 36 next year, I would take it right now. I've been all of the moves that the Celtics have made in the offseason with Brad Stevens as the GM have led to some very funny text exchanges amongst our group where I've had the rare opportunity to refer to him as Brad Stevens Grunfeld because I didn't I didn't appreciate that at all I'm just telling you a lot of these moves these feel very familiar to me oh Josh Richardson was good three years ago right we saw him be good in Miami so he'll come here and be good won't he Al Horford's 35 years old and contributed to us
Starting point is 00:32:25 a few years ago in the playoffs. We can rekindle that, right? Now, Schroeder, you got three. Schroeder was a steal. That's fine. As long as he's not a dick in the locker room.
Starting point is 00:32:38 Best of luck. Every move they made was a move to have a tradable contract. I'm not making an excuse. I'm not, I'm not trying to spin it. Like they're trying to construct this roster where if somebody becomes available, they can make a move and they have a bunch of tradable contracts. Robert Williams at 12 million a year, Marcus Smart at 17, Horford's contract. You can buy out next year. You go on and
Starting point is 00:33:02 on. They're waiting to trade with your guy. With your guy, Tommy Shepard, the above the rim star, Tommy Shepard. It ain't happening. As soon as Brad goes on the market. As soon as Brad goes on eBay, we got our bid ready with a lot of picks. That's a miscalculation about what the ultimate goal
Starting point is 00:33:20 here in Washington is. Let's, let's, let's. Wait, let's blow through. Yeah. Give me your single favorite. Don't go through all of them. My absolute single favorite. Wait, let's, let's, let's blow through. Yeah. Give me your single favorite. Don't go through all of them. My absolute single favorite. No, we're not going through all of them.
Starting point is 00:33:28 Thank you. This is perfect. We got to save it for Vassillo. We're going seven hours on like October 14th. So I don't want to step on it too much. The Indiana Pacers over 42 and a half is by far my favorite number on this board. Loved it. If we have FanDuel, Suze FanDuel, well, I don't want to say this.
Starting point is 00:33:44 I'll just leave it at that. I'm enthusiastic. I'm not going to say anything about what my goals are, my intentions, what I think should happen in the marketplace. I just would like to observe that I think the NL Pacers are well positioned to have a good season in
Starting point is 00:33:59 2021. That's all I'm going to say. Can they go 43-39? Yes. I believe so. That's all I'll say. Pretty crazy that they go 43-39? Yes. I believe so. That's all I'll say. Pretty crazy that they had the same over-under as the Bulls, who are really a serious threat to give up 160 points in a game.
Starting point is 00:34:16 That's a team. Any scorers marking that Bulls game being like, I might be able to get 70 in this one. You had the homie Jason Goff on Friday. Just brilliant. The cocaine 80s are had the homie Jason Goff on Friday. Just brilliant. The cocaine 80s are back, baby. I know. Jason Goff nailed it.
Starting point is 00:34:29 Yeah, he killed it with that Bulls. They ain't playing no defense. It's going to be terrific. I can't wait to watch this Bulls team. I love Pacers 42 and a half. I'm glad you agreed on that one. Minnesota 33 and a half. There's going to be Three or four shit teams
Starting point is 00:34:46 Just by rule in the west I don't know how Minnesota's Better yeah I don't like their team I don't think it's well constructed And I just Feel like that was one that jumped out as Too high to me but my favorite one House is the
Starting point is 00:35:01 Orlando Magic at 23 and a half under You're gonna you're gonna Play that under like That to me is the Orlando magic at 23 and a half under you're going to, you're going to play that under like that to me is the most logical, easiest under that I've seen in a couple of years. What, how is that team going to be good? They have a bunch of dudes coming off knee surgery, a bunch of forwards who all play the same position and a backcourt of, I like Suggs,
Starting point is 00:35:25 but it's like this weird, super young backcourt of Suggs and Anthony and RJ Hampton. They have a new coach who's never coached before, who if he was a good coach, I feel like Dallas would have hired him. Jamal Mosley. Dallas was like, cool,
Starting point is 00:35:39 let him go. I didn't see. And, and they have an obvious incentive to play for a number one pick. Like Detroit doesn't have to tank, right? They got Cade. Houston might end up tanking inadvertently. I like that under.
Starting point is 00:35:54 26 and a half. I like the Houston under too. As long as John Wall's on Houston, I like that under. But Houston, at least, they already got their prize. Orlando hasn't gotten their prize yet. Sucks it's like a semi-prize,
Starting point is 00:36:05 but they have a chance to be the number one pick. Yeah. I like where you're going with this one. Cause OKC is a stay away because they, you know, they have SGA and door and they'll have guys that actually try. I have another one on here. I don't want to talk about it.
Starting point is 00:36:17 Cause I'm, I'm very nervous now after we talked about Indiana, that we're going to wake up later this week and the numbers are going to be in places that we're just give it to us. week and the numbers are going to be in places that we're uncomfortable with. I really like Cleveland. I really like what Cleveland did. I like them adding Markin in.
Starting point is 00:36:34 I believe in Jared Allen. I think Mobley was my favorite pick in the draft. Sexland is going to be wonderful. I think that team is all of a sudden a must draft. Sexland is going to be wonderful. Like I think that team is, is all of a sudden, um, uh, a, uh, a must watch on the, uh, NBA TV.
Starting point is 00:36:51 We agree. All right. So your favorite, your single favorite over under tentatively before Fando post the odds is Pacers 42 and a half. My single favorite is Orlando under 23 and a half. Sorry, Kevin Clark. All right. That's it for part one of the podcast. Remember, part two is coming up in a little bit. It's me and Warren Sharpe and Joe House talking NFL sleepers and grenades for the 2021 season.
Starting point is 00:37:14 You're not going to want to miss this one. This gets very lively in a bunch of different spots. I will see you there for part two. This podcast was produced by Kyle Creighton, who loves part two because we talked about Mac Jones. We'll see you next time.

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