The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 1: Warriors-Lakers, Philly-Brooklyn, Milwaukee’s Burden, and the DOA Celtics With Ryen Russillo

Episode Date: May 17, 2021

In Part 1 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Ryen Russillo to discuss the Warriors’ win over the Grizzlies, the play-in tournament, and the anticipated Lakers vs. Warrio...rs matchup. They also discuss the 76ers' path to the Eastern Conference finals, the hopeless Celtics, Hawks vs. Knicks, the Heat-Bucks rematch, MVP thoughts, and more. Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Ryen Russillo Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, we did something special for the last day of the NBA season. It's a two-part BS podcast with me and Rossella. This is part one. Part two will be landing in a few hours. Stay tuned for that one as well. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Miller Lite keeps it simple for us. Undebatable quality, great taste. Picture this, it's game day. All the gang's here. You're tailgating outside the stadium. It's a great time for beer. Or how about when you're standing at the grill and the smell of sizzling burgers is in the air? Moments like that are when you want a light beer that tastes like beer, that's delicious. You don't want to load up on those heavier beers and then you only have two of them. Then you feel tired. Your stomach feels full. Miller Lite, it's your friend. It just accompanies whatever else you're doing. You're super happy with it. Opening an ice cold Miller Lite can signal the beginning of Miller time. Miller Lite is the light beer with all the great beer tastes we like. 90 calories per 355 mil can. So why not grab some Miller Lites today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by
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Starting point is 00:02:15 and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. We're also brought to you by the ringer.com as well as the ringer podcast network we're on the rewatchables which we're dropping some point on monday probably monday night one of the five biggest movies we've ever done i'm gonna tell you what it is now good fellas
Starting point is 00:02:38 yeah we did good fellas we did it in person we'd been waiting for the end of the pandemic to be vaccinated, to go back in the studio and look at each other. Me, Chris Ryan, Sean Fantasy, we did it. Good fellas. It is available, I think, on HBO Max if you want to watch it tomorrow. There's no basketball. What else are you going to do? Coming up, part one of our last day of the NBA season extravaganza. Me, Ryan Rossello. Part two coming much, much later tonight. It's all happening. So good, we had to split it into two parts.
Starting point is 00:03:15 Here it is. First, Pearl Chip. All right, part one of the special two-part BS for Solo extravaganza here on Sunday. Last day of the season, the playing game added a level of weight, of gravity, of entertainment, and Rosillo is a playing detractor. I think it's time for you to apologize to America, Rosillo. You love the playing game now. You've come all the way around. My position is very simple on this. I did not say that I would not enjoy the games.
Starting point is 00:04:04 It's that there will be a time when there is a seven seed and you will look at their record versus the other teams that they're in the scenario with and you're like why do they have to play another game to be in the playoffs however I think another thing that everybody has to admit here you're so all caught up in all the different scenarios and like oh there's a hey Memphis and Golden State would matter under the old system Washington Charlotte would matter under the old system so all, Charlotte would matter under the old system. So all of these games that we've created this idea, the sense of urgency,
Starting point is 00:04:30 you could argue a couple of the games that have already happened today would have meant more in the older system. So I don't really... Is that true? Well, if Memphis is out, they're out. Like, they're out. So I don't really get
Starting point is 00:04:45 why all of a sudden like, oh my god, this Memphis Golden State game, this has so much on the line now with this new system. You're like, actually, it has less. Because now Memphis is still in it.
Starting point is 00:05:02 Here's where I'm going to throw three of the greatest words in the English language at you. Yeah, but still. I really had a good time today. I like that we have more playing games. Golden State Lakers is set for Wednesday. And I couldn't be more excited about that. And I just like the fact that we have basically five straight days of playoff games
Starting point is 00:05:26 before we even get to the actual playoffs. I'm enjoying it. I'm having a good time. I'm not going to let, I'm going to let, I'm not going to let you to track me out of the good state of mind I'm in right now. I've just watched two straight games that felt like playoff games. That's not even the playoffs yet. But what would, what would Memphis and Golden State felt like under the old system? Like what would have happened? That's, that's what i think is weird about how and i and i always sound like the dick in these scenarios it's like oh then you go well wait a minute you do realize that in another system the older one that these games would have been just as important so i don't why is it different now because it's labeled different and again i'm not going to sit there on a playoff game
Starting point is 00:06:01 on a tuesday night if it's a great game and say, well, I don't enjoy this. I knew I would enjoy it. I just think there'll be a time when there's a seven seed that has an absurd record. And I'm thinking like, why did we just play 82 games if they have to do this again? That's my only point. I do think the fact that it was a shorter season probably kept the records a little bit closer. And I think like we would have had an exciting end of the season playing game or no playing game just because we had 72 games this year and not 82 games and a lot of injuries and a lot of weirdness and a lot of people clogged together. That doesn't usually happen. I don't really remember a lot of last day of the season situations where we had to play playoff games,
Starting point is 00:06:39 basically. And actually we have more than that. If you were taping this right now, it is 315 Pacific time. Um, we would have more than that if we felt confident that certain teams weren't just going to throw the games tonight. So I guess this is the counter to the whole plan thing. We're, we're worried that the Clippers are going to basically try to out tank. Okay. See who's been tanking anyway. We don't know what's going to happen there. It's going to be a double tank off. And then it looks like the Clippers just want to be the four seed so we have that the whole thing we're going to talk about that in part two right why are the
Starting point is 00:07:12 Clippers do you respect or like teams that are like so determined to avoid people in the playoffs I feel like that's like slightly a bad sign for a team's confidence about itself I just think everybody's trying to figure out how to like this Lakers thing is,
Starting point is 00:07:29 is weird. You know, you and I, I don't even know that we've argued about it. I think I've actually come more around to your side of thinking on this point is that if the Lakers, you know, they put together a nice little run here and Anthony Davis and that Phoenix
Starting point is 00:07:41 game, we were doing one of those pods and the game's going on while we were taping it. And he just put on an absolute show. And you're like, oh, man, that's that's why the Lakers are a bad matchup for Phoenix. And, you know, Phoenix in their game against San Antonio, like they didn't play Chris Paul. So you have that part of it. And look, the Clippers, I think there was some debate about like, well, what are they going to try to do?
Starting point is 00:07:58 Are they going to care? Well, it's very clear they don't want the Lakers on their side. They don't want the Lakers on their side of it. And that's why they're going ahead and doing what they're doing and sitting everybody and losing one of the other games before we get to the release of the Western conference part of it. So I get your point. Wait, can I counter,
Starting point is 00:08:11 can I give a really good counter? So they do the Kawhi Paul George thing two summers ago and they do this whole puff their chest out. It's on baby LA versus LA. We're here to take it. We're building our own basketball arena. We're going to take basketball in LA from the Lakers. And then they have a chance to end up on their side in the playoff rack. And they're like, cool, we're going to tank the last couple of games of the year here.
Starting point is 00:08:34 We don't want to be on their side. So what is it? Do you want to go head to head against the Lakers or you don't? Because you're running the other way for them in this playoff thing. And it's embarrassing. There are plenty of great things that look good on a billboard and a t-shirt, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's what you want. But I mean, if you were, if you were running the Clippers, would you be mad about this right now? Would you be saying, no, no, no, no, we're doing this. We want to show everybody, are you strategic and saying, Hey, if the Lakers are back in hole, let's get on the other side of the Western bracket. Well, if I was covering the Clippers and I ran into Steve Ballmer, I'd be like, Hey, what about all that big game you talked about, about challenging the Lakers? back in hole. Let's get on the other side of the Western bracket. Well, if I was covering the Clippers and I ran into Steve Ballmer,
Starting point is 00:09:05 I'd be like, hey, what about all that big game you talked about, about challenging the Lakers? Why are you running away from them in a playoff bracket? I don't see the Lakers running away from you. Would he care more about you, though, as a guy covering the Clippers or the chances for his organization to get out of the West?
Starting point is 00:09:19 Well, why talk so much shit and then not back it up? I think it's embarrassing. So should they sign big players and not be excited about it and not saying they're taking over LA and then, and then run the other direction as soon as they have a chance to play the playoffs, have a billboard that says we're probably still,
Starting point is 00:09:35 you know, a second class citizen in this city. So if we duck the Lakers, don't take it personally. T-shirt. I would just rather be a higher seed in a playoff really in any scenario. I just think it's more valuable to be a higher seed. I don't want to risk it, especially this year when weird shit's going on. And I don't want to lose my spot. If I
Starting point is 00:09:55 have a chance to be a three seed, I'm getting the three seed. That's it. If I have a chance to play Phoenix around two. Awesome. If the Lakers end up playing me in the three,6, fine. Let's go. Let's do this. We've been circling each other for two years. I don't like it. Can we talk about Golden State Warriors? Yeah. Is this the Eastern Conference pod? No, no, because Golden State Warriors just happened and then we'll go back and we'll do the East and we'll do the other one. I was told it'd be Don't Have. Well, you just watched Golden State Warriors. No, I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:10:25 I'm with you. I'm just missing you. Sorry. Curry finishes with 46. And it's weird to say this about somebody who scored 46 in a basketball game, but he eked it out. It was a blood, sweat, and tears 46. He took 36 shots.
Starting point is 00:10:42 He took 22 threes. I'm sure he's taken more threes in a game. I just can't personally remember a game where he jacked up 22 threes and all of them. He said after the game that he felt like he could have shot better. I don't know. I thought Memphis defended him pretty well. And in general, it put a big spotlight on some of the things that are both wrong against this Golden State, wrong with this gold state team,
Starting point is 00:11:06 but also right. And so lovable and just, I'm so in on the Curry Draymond thing. I'm so in on the way they play, how unique it is. And I felt like even when they blew the lead and it was, I think it was 97, 95 at one point Memphis.
Starting point is 00:11:20 And I just felt like there, where's it going to put, they have a switch. They can do this. They can turn this on. They did. It helped that Brooks fouled out. But what the Warriors are doing,
Starting point is 00:11:32 if you think about it in a playoff series, it makes less sense, right? If a team can see this seven times over the course of two weeks, I feel like it'll be a little bit easier. But in a one-game playoff, as we head toward the Lakers here, and they just have to play them once, they just have to do this.
Starting point is 00:11:49 Curry has to have like two hot stretches during the game. Everybody else has to rebound. They have to hope Davis doesn't destroy them. Is it realistic to you that they could beat the Lakers in a playing game? No, not with their front line. I mean, it's Kavon Looney and then it's go small.
Starting point is 00:12:03 And then if you go small, you're going to lose every rebound. So I don't really see it. And I think what you're going to do is you're going to keep two with Steph as soon as he crosses half court. I mean, he's had two other games this month where he shot 21 threes against Oklahoma City, 20 threes against New Orleans when he just decided about, I don't know, two months ago where it's on me.
Starting point is 00:12:23 I don't know if there's another game where he has 22 or more at some point in his career. I guess I wouldn't be shocked. But the volume has cranked. He had one other game in February where he took 23s. He actually shot it horrible in that Miami overtime game where he actually came back. Because he's had some of those games where it's like,
Starting point is 00:12:38 oh, the run is over, the run is over. And then he had the third quarter with 20 points again. And you're like, no, the run is back. The run is back. And you're right, third quarter with 20 points again. And you're like, no, the run is back. The run is back. And you're right because Brooks fouls out at 91 a piece. And Memphis then took the lead a few possessions later. And it felt like Golden State kind of turned themselves off in this game where they were just up again. It was clear with John Morant, they have no respect for him. So that's one of those weird things with Memphis and jaw where if you think of them long-term
Starting point is 00:13:06 and projecting them as a playoff team, that's a real problem for you offensively in today's game where you can just make sure you sag off the guy with the ball in his hands the entire game. I mean, it's a little Westbrook-y in some playoff games where you're like, I love a lot of the stuff that you're capable of, but that's a major flaw. And you saw Golden State go with that.
Starting point is 00:13:23 They get up 20. I thought they were kind of coasting there a little bit. Then the big thing with Steph was what's Kerr going to do with the urgency of this game? Even though in the moment the game means something, it's still clear that some of the other teams today aren't going to look at it the same
Starting point is 00:13:38 way. Steph always comes back at that six minute mark of the fourth quarter. Plays the third and they bring him back really late. He brought him back in at nine plus minutes. That's's when you kind of knew like, hey, this is all going to be on you. So in a one game spot, I don't, I would never doubt Curry. I mean, he's probably had more doubt going into the season than ever before. And then he wins a scoring title. The team is in the playoffs and this is actually a great accomplishment. We consider the rest of the team there, but there's just not enough secondary scoring.
Starting point is 00:14:06 There just isn't. For a playoff game, like a series, you're not talking upsetting somebody in the first round, are you? No, I was thinking playing game because I think if they could beat the Lakers, I do think they could beat the Suns in a series. I don't know if I'd bet on it, but I do think they could hang with them and potentially beat
Starting point is 00:14:22 them. I do not think Utah would be a taller task, even though they showed the blueprint for how to do it with some of the stuff they did against them last week. I just think Utah... Part of the problem that's so frustrating... Right, but no Mitchell, no Conley in that game, right? Right.
Starting point is 00:14:39 Okay. But I'm saying the stuff they're doing with Gobert, I think will mirror some of the stuff they'll try to do in a playoff series. I think what's frustrating... You're right about that. They'll do the other stuff that the other great guards do late and try to figure it out if they're close. But there's just certain results the last couple of weeks that I go,
Starting point is 00:14:54 all right, I know what happened, but... No, I'm just talking about the play. I think what's frustrating about playing Utah in a playoff series is they have all these dudes who can just carry a half hour game and there's no way to plan for it or prepare for it, right? Like you could just have the random Bogdanovich game three where he has like 42. You know you're going to have at least one Clarkson game.
Starting point is 00:15:15 You know Mitchell's going to have the one crazy game. You know Angles is going to have the one game where he's got like the 17, 12, and 15, something like that. I just think the longer a series goes on, that team has a lot of options against a team that really, you know, I mean, JTA went out for a little while today, and it felt like the Warriors world was caving in. It was like, oh, no, we don't have JTA.
Starting point is 00:15:38 What are we going to do? You're right about Utah. And what I always really liked about them was that when they were rolling offensively, it's like they can find different ways. Like if you're sitting there and you're that team you're going we have a bunch of different guys that can attack and to even be fair Gobert you know there are moments going back to that first round loss against the Nuggets which could have gone either way in the playoffs last time around where Gobert had moments where it didn't look like Denver knew
Starting point is 00:16:00 what to do with him you know you're like he'll he'll have a game where I think we've been over this enough with him where you go, okay, is he the right matchup for this game? They can be the same people out there game four and then he's dominating. I would expect that they would attack him, but it's a really good point on the Jazz is that
Starting point is 00:16:17 their balance is what gets you excited, but they can also get really unbalanced at times with Mitchell offensively. And then those Clarkson minutes where he, he comes in now. I mean, his thing is funny because he's not the quickest.
Starting point is 00:16:31 The shooting is better. He was so ISO heavy as a player, but now he just gets to the rim and stops and then finishes against people. Like whatever he's doing with his angles or how he takes off, he's incredible at just finishing, not even just fluid drives, just being at the rim and getting it up. Yeah, he almost looks like a rich man's Lou Williams
Starting point is 00:16:52 when Lou Williams, back when Lou Williams mattered a little bit more than I think he does now. Here's the case for the Warriors in a playing game. Did you see Valanchunas' stat line after this game? He had a 29 and 16. He was 12 for 15 from the field. And it didn't matter. The Warriors still beat them handily.
Starting point is 00:17:11 So let's just give Davis 29 and 16. Okay. Easy. Done. Yeah, let's just pencil a bit for that. I still feel like the Warriors can hang with them, even if you're penciling that in. Now, I don't know what we're getting from LeBron.
Starting point is 00:17:26 I don't know how healthy he is. I have no feel at all for what he can do. But if they do the bully ball thing and LeBron's feeling it, they could just completely overpower them. At the same time, I just don't feel like that Lakers team has played together enough
Starting point is 00:17:40 that it's just in a one game and there'll be urgency, but not like crazy urgency. Cause I don't really think the Lakers care where they land. Whereas like for golden state, I think it's a really big deal for them to get to seven. I know that they think they can beat the sons because they've hung with them this year. They've gone toe to toe with them. And I think they could do in a playoff series, Utah. They're not beating. I don't think. All right. We should still keep open the possibility, because this one's releasing earlier,
Starting point is 00:18:06 that the Lakers could get to the sixth seed here, and Portland could end up in the seventh. But that depends on obviously the Lakers beating New Orleans, which should be no problem, but then Denver and Portland, and for a few different reasons, it looks like Denver
Starting point is 00:18:21 may end up... I don't know what's going to happen with Denver. I don't know what's going to happen with Denver. I don't know what's going to happen with Denver. I mean, the line on this one is massive, right? So that's the clue on this one is the line is Portland by eight and a half. Right. So everybody thinks Portland gets this one. So that's your seven, eight.
Starting point is 00:18:36 And I know that's why we're doing all this stuff on it. Memphis shot what? Like six to 25 from three. I know the Lakers can be a little streaky. That's more expected for Memphis. I don't know that I expect that. I mean, it could I know the Lakers can be a little streaky. That's more expected for Memphis. I don't know that I expect that. I mean, it could happen with the Lakers, but I would think they'd do better than that from outside.
Starting point is 00:18:50 What do you expect? Like, first of all, I have no idea how many people will be at that game. I just hope I'm one of them because I am going to try to probably go on Wednesday night. I want to see that one. But there's a lot of Warriors DNA here in LA. There will be some Warriors fans at that game.
Starting point is 00:19:07 And I think there will be a real energy. If, if you can get more than like 4,000, 5,000 people into, into that for a real game with famous people in it, there's going to be energy in the building. Even if there's going to be a lot of empty seats, I'm excited. There should be some kind of like prices, right? Screening to people on the outside where they're like, no, no, no, you're good. Just keep going down that tunnel. Like, no're good. Just keep going down that tunnel. Like, no, no, just keep going down the tunnel.
Starting point is 00:19:27 They just exit you out like on the other side of the place. If you had Golden State gear on. Right. It's like, no, no, it's a little further. Yeah, no, no, no, no. Pick out something. I'm open to the idea in one game that anything can kind of happen here. But what I don't want to do is because the Lakers have looked letharhargic even though they've won a bunch in a row here in the last week and
Starting point is 00:19:48 they have everybody back that yeah like i get your point i get your argument for it but i mean eventually i have to look at who's playing in a game right i have to look at the collection of guys and when you start getting the third and fourth guy for golden state against a healthy slate a healthy Lakers team. I understand. But there's also another version of this where it's not like it's their first year together and they haven't done anything. The fact that they're coming off of winning a title, that's what annoys me about some
Starting point is 00:20:16 of these teams. Some of these teams that have never done anything and have a few good players are like, man, wait, just wait, and we'll get there and we'll flip the switch. I'm like, I'm not going to give you the flip the switch benefit of the doubt if you've never done anything collectively as a group so at least the lakers have that part of it down so i give you a point but can i give you one other thing yeah it's just this is unbelievable like you are trying so hard to sell listen that's i'm just i don't have to sell it okay everyone's going to watch this game. But I just think Golden State has to be taken seriously in a single gamer. Because of Curry.
Starting point is 00:20:49 But here's another point. You got me. Yeah, I'm not disagreeing with that part of it. I think you're just trying to talk yourself into the Lakers losing this game is what it sounds like. You're not selling me on watching it. I think you're trying to sell the Lakers can lose this. It's my least favorite team against my favorite team that's's not Boston. Um, Wiggins revenge game. Want to walk through this? Yeah, actually I do. Cause this, this stumps me a bit. Wiggins revenge game,
Starting point is 00:21:16 2014. All right. Now I know where you're going. LeBron Lee Jenkins. I'm coming home. Pretty funny article to read in retrospect. Cause he makes it seem like he's retiring Cleveland. He ends up staying four years. Um, but he, he lists a couple of the people I'm so excited to play with this person and that person. And does it put,
Starting point is 00:21:36 uh, Wiggins in there? It's like, well, that's interesting. Cause they drafted Andrew Wiggins. He was, he was,
Starting point is 00:21:43 was he the first pick or the second pick? I can't remember. He was the first pick, Jabari. First pick in the draft. Would have thought maybe he would end up in your SI piece. Did not end up in the piece, and they ended up flipping him right away for Kevin Love. Wiggins has carried this like a grudge for seven years.
Starting point is 00:21:58 He's finally ready to unleash it against LeBron. I'm excited for the Wiggins revenge game. Okay. Oh, you're telling me he doesn't have it in him? Haven't you watched his whole career? I mean, I couldn't wait for you to stop. Who plays with more passion than Andrew Wiggins? I think you could rob Wiggins' house
Starting point is 00:22:14 and he would know it was you and he would still drop your kid off after school. There's nothing about Wiggins' mentality. LeBron, it's an honor to play with you. Play against you. Although nothing is as bad as when Boston goes to make out with Kyrie after he smokes him again in a regular season game. I'm actually looking forward to that if that happens.
Starting point is 00:22:33 But yeah, I don't think there's anything that's ever... I've never seen anything from Wiggins in seven years that would tell me he is motivated by maybe anything. Well, once again, I'm going to come back at you with this. Yeah, but still. Is Curry the number three lock for MVP right now? motivated by maybe anything. Well, once again, I'm going to come back at you with this. Yeah, but still. Is Curry the number three lock for MVP right now? Because for me, he is.
Starting point is 00:22:51 I think he has to be third. Yeah, I think he's going to be third. Because I don't think Randall's going to carry enough of the vote. You know, Randall, this is really weird. In the largest market in the United States, they feel like this non-Power 5 college football team with this amazing Heisman candidate that we know when the final votes are tallied, it's just Randall's not going to have enough.
Starting point is 00:23:12 So what do you think? You think it's Embiid's second, or you think it's Paul's second? I think Embiid's going to be second. I'll tell you this. I don't know if Chris is going to be on my ballot. Well, what are you doing? Top, you do five, right? You vote five. You vote five and there's seven guys who have a case.
Starting point is 00:23:30 So I, it has to be Jokic and bead one, two. It just has to be you. That has to be your top two. And if you don't have that, you didn't watch the season. I think Curry has to be three. Cause I think they were what? 37 and 26 when he played. And you saw the team today.
Starting point is 00:23:48 Talk about valuable. If he doesn't have a good game, they're losing against anybody good. I think Chris, that team's better. They're deeper. They could survive a not great game from him. So anyway, I had him third. Once it gets to Giannis, Dame, Randall, and Chris Paul, a not great game from him. So anyway, I had him third. I don't... Once it gets to Giannis, Dame, Randall,
Starting point is 00:24:08 and Chris Paul, I don't know if they're necessarily right answers if you have two spots for those four guys. Yeah, but this is where I think the storytelling comes in. And this is where Paul is going to be
Starting point is 00:24:18 at least in the top five on a lot of ballots is that it's going to be this kind of lifetime achievement vote for him because i swear to god every single suns broadcast and i'm not talking the home broadcast any game that's broadcast now with phoenix it's not just their television right i'm talking like the away team too they put together that graphic now showing how much chris paul improves a team from the year
Starting point is 00:24:41 before he got there to you and it means five a row. And it's a monumental improvement almost everywhere he goes. And we all know the playoff story. I'm not going to run through that again. I just see it all the time. So I feel like he has more story momentum than the top two slash three candidates. He's right there, I think, with Steph as far as the story part of it, which isn't always accurate. But I'm just telling you, you know, the vote.
Starting point is 00:25:04 That's how it seems to go. Well, so if Portland gets, let's say Portland locks in here at six, it's pretty hard to leave Dame out of the top five. They're going to, let's say they finished 42 and 30 with all the injuries they've had. McCollum is what? Six weeks.
Starting point is 00:25:22 Nurkic has been a shell of himself. Um, he kind of kept them it seemed like at one point that season was completely unraveling and they unlocked it and came back and it's just like if you switch Chris Paul and Dame what are my MVP things is just switch the guys like who would have a bigger impact on which
Starting point is 00:25:37 team if you switch Chris Paul and Dame Lillard is Phoenix worse yeah I think they are. You think they're worse? Okay. I just think Chris Paul does a million little things that you have to either understand what you're watching. I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:25:52 I just think there's a couple of players that are a little bit more complicated than the box score. And I'm not saying Dame is this volume score loser type guy because he's not. I mean, I love Dame too, like everybody else. But there are plenty of nights where Paul doesn't even look to get his offense going until it's like eight minutes to go in the tight game in the fourth quarter. And then you see him, he had eight makes in a row the other night in a game
Starting point is 00:26:13 where you look at halftime, you're like, he's taken three shots. What the hell's going on here? So I think Paul just has to be, he just has to be, it's not labeled or consumed. He just, you have to look at him differently than some of the other raw numbers that we see. I have Curry third, and I think I'm going to have Giannis fourth. And then that fifth spot, I'm probably going to decide tonight at like two in the morning. I think you're going to go Randall. I think you want to vote Randall. I think you just want to be able to say I gave him a vote, which I'm not even saying is the wrong thing.
Starting point is 00:26:44 It's tough because they're playing in the East. I think the East is just worse. And whatever the Knicks are going to end up, what are they going to be, 41 and 31, whatever it is? Yeah, the 41-31. That record in the East versus Portland going 42 and 30 in the West. Now, Portland probably has a little more talent than the Phoenix. Like Phoenix is going to be one of only two teams at 150 plus.
Starting point is 00:27:13 And then all the impact Chris had on that. It's really hard. And that's the thing. It's like people can't get mad when you talk about this sometimes with the snub thing. It's like sometimes you just have seven guys for five spots and you got to figure it out. And I don't know if there's a right answer. You know, Chris's stats, he's like 16 and nine.
Starting point is 00:27:35 His shooting splits are good, as good, you know, typical Chris Paul year. But Dame is like, you know, 29 a game and is a guy that kind of held that Portland team together where it seemed like there were a couple times this season where they were just going under and he held them together. So it's really hard for me to say Chris Paul is more valuable or Dame is more valuable, but I got to put somebody down. Can I throw one thing at you here? Just the argument for Steph, that offensive plus minus number that Steph basically leads the league in every single year, and it's absurd. It's just basically an indicator of how much better you are with the team. Steph is going to lead the NBA this year at just over seven a game. Number two is LeBron at 4.63.
Starting point is 00:28:20 Durant's third at just about four. James Harden's fourth at four. Giannis' fifth at just under four. Dame is there at just about four. James Harden's fourth at four. Giannis is fifth at just under four. Dame is there at just under four. Mitchell, and then it gets a little weird. Jordan Poole is eighth because he played so many minutes with Steph. Then it's Lonzo, and then Jokic rounds out. Only the other guys that are three or above.
Starting point is 00:28:41 Everyone else that's really good in the league from 11 all the way down is below three, and Steph is at seven. In the 15-16 season, he was at 12. And look, we can argue what all these numbers mean or don't mean. We can go in circles and all this stuff, but some of these metrics on the extreme side
Starting point is 00:28:58 tell you the real story here, and it's that every time Steph steps onto the floor with his team, it's just a completely different impact of almost any other player in the league. And on top of it, Clay gets hurt before the season and Wiseman, who they think they're going to get something from. And midway through the season, they realize he's a project and this season should have gone sideways and it did not. I have a couple more things in this. We're gonna take a quick break. This episode is brought to you by Movember.
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Starting point is 00:29:53 And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. Curry finishes this season over 32 points a game, 32, six and six, and almost a 50, 40, 90. He shoots too many threes to get to the 50. So he's basically 48, 42, 92 and made 343s. And if we had the extra 10 games, I think he would have joined the 400 club again, which is he's the only one that's done it. Dame, just to put some of the numbers for the people who haven't looked at this, Dame this year was 29, four and eight. And then Randall, as you said, was 24, 10 and six. And Chris was 16, five and nine. But the, as you said, the intangible piece with Chris and how he just makes everybody he plays with better is one of the reasons,
Starting point is 00:30:51 like when we do the most valuable player thing, that's got to come up. And I, it's really weird. I don't remember the last day of the season where I didn't know what I was going to do. The only things I know for sure is that I have Jokic and Bede, Curry. I think Curry has to be three. And then four or five, we can argue until the cows come home about
Starting point is 00:31:10 those four guys. Giannis, not as good of a season as his last two. And he's still 29, 11, and five. And he's still a ridiculous two-way player. He's pretty durable. And the team was good. That team is going to be 47-25. So, tough one. Okay. What's audible to Wizards Hornets and the Wizards who came through?
Starting point is 00:31:38 We did an over-under podcast before the year. You did well. You did really well this year. I did well. Although we all lost on the Warriors because the Warriors, it was on the half. I think it was 38 and a half was the over. We all went under and they went over by half. So I went 19 and 11. I went five and two on my locks. One of my locks was the Wizards. And the Wizards started out, what were they, 3-15 at one point? Something awful. They finished at 34-38.
Starting point is 00:32:08 And you knew the game today was going to be like every single close Wizards game that they have where somebody's going to have a lead, somebody's going to come back, it's going to be tight the last two minutes,
Starting point is 00:32:19 there's going to be some inexplicable offensive decisions, you're going to scratch your head a couple times, and then one team is going to win some inexplicable offensive decisions. You're going to scratch your head a couple times, and then one team is going to win and be relieved, and the other team is going to not believe that they blew the game, which is how this played out. The big takeaway, though, for me anyway,
Starting point is 00:32:37 is Charlotte's just not good. It's just not a good team. Without Hayward, I don't, you know. Do you see the numbers without Hayward? Well, I know what they are. I mean, which ones are you asking me about? Well, when he doesn't play this year, they're 9-19 without him, basically.
Starting point is 00:32:54 Yeah, that's not surprising. Brutal. 6-14 their last 20. And they tried to do the small ball thing today to take Scott Brooks by surprise, which is not, by the way, hard to take Scott Brooks by surprise. But it did, by the way, hard to take Scott Brooks by surprise. But it did, and it worked, and they took a big lead,
Starting point is 00:33:09 and they kind of ran out of gas, and Beal got going a little bit late. The Gafford foul trouble helped Charlotte kind of put some stuff together there, and then it didn't really matter. But yeah, no Hayward. I mean, remember, he was a borderline all-star conversation there for a while. The Hornets also had this ridiculous run where they were winning all these close games, where they had these numbers that showed you in the fourth quarter for a long time during the regular season.
Starting point is 00:33:33 You're like, wait, they're that much better than all these other teams during it? But the Wizards now, if you go April 1st and out, Denver's got the best record in the NBA from April 1st to now, 18-6. And this is missing some of the games. It'll be later Sunday night. Phoenix, 18-7. Atlanta, 17-7 of the games. It'll be later Sunday night. Phoenix, 18-7. Atlanta, 17-7, which I know we're going to get to. Dallas is 17-8, which you brought up last week.
Starting point is 00:33:51 The Knicks are 17-7. And the Wizards are 17-9 to close the season. Except one of the weird things is if you compare that to all the other good record teams, their net rating is behind all that. Only Atlanta is just ahead of them there's some of these teams that have put together a nice run for a month and a half but they're not necessarily crushing in any of the other teams so maybe that can be a little misleading about losing or winning
Starting point is 00:34:12 close games which isn't really you know there's a couple teams that i think can bank on certain players but a lot of times it's kind of random and the wizards have won a lot of games despite playing so many close overall over the course of you know, from April 1st on. Yeah, they have a couple guys you trust in a game like this, right? Like Robin Lopez. So I really liked when they signed him. He was somebody I wish the Celtics had gotten, but he was really good today.
Starting point is 00:34:36 Can I ask you a question about him? Well, if you catch him on the wrong night, you think he's like there's a third Lopez brother. Like Robin and Brooke had this third guy. He was like barely coordinated. him on the wrong night you think he's like there's a third lopez brother like robin and brooke had this third guy like a plumley he was like barely but today he was borderline dominant there's some of these families you're like wait there's another one like the gronks just kept happening you're like there's one you're like there's another yeah they're like there's a guy at kansas state that's a gronk uh Let me ask you this about Lopez. His basketball career, if he were a skateboarder,
Starting point is 00:35:08 professional skateboarder, he would be a guy that'd be like 720s, like whatever, like try just Ollie. His game has gone older. You know what I mean? As he got older, though, the way he plays, these looping hooks just feed away from the basket. He's playing like a 1950s guy. So his game actually
Starting point is 00:35:29 as time has passed and the game has gotten better and he's evolved, he's decided to zag. The ultimate basketball zag. His approach to the way he plays is like getting older and older. I like it. Count on him. Ishmith, I texted you in-house in that first half and I was like,
Starting point is 00:35:46 this is going to be an ish Smith game. And it was like, there's something trustworthy about him and big games. I can't explain. You like those two shots he made when he dribbled into a long two contested. And then the runner across the lane where no one else touched the basketball.
Starting point is 00:35:59 I don't think. No, I didn't. I didn't like the shots, but they went in, which is a classic Smith thing. Like he's fucking confident in himself. And when you get in these playoff games
Starting point is 00:36:08 and you can see it, you can see the throat, even in a playing game or playing, trying to get into a playing game, the throat started to get a little tight. He's texting Carson Edwards today being like, keep gunning, young king. Yeah, keep believing in yourself, brother. And then Bertans, who has been
Starting point is 00:36:23 really up and down, to say the least, this year, but it's still scary when he's open. You know, so they can kind of throw together some combination of six guys with Gafford that look like a confident playoff team. Westbrook is incredibly confident, as we've discussed many times.
Starting point is 00:36:39 He was not good today. He did an interesting thing, though, in the last three minutes. It was like he had a hypnosis therapy session where it was like, Russell, you will not lose this game for your team. You will not lose this game for your team. It was like, what about Bob? They just kept repeating it to himself. And he
Starting point is 00:36:55 deferred big time in the last two minutes. He didn't have that crazy... I mean, he froze out Beal inexplicably when Beal was hot, but at least Westbrook was the one taking terrible shots. So maybe there's progress with Russ. Finally, there was,
Starting point is 00:37:08 I was obviously tracking it as I always do with him. I was, I was watching his health defense, but then I thought like, okay, a lot of Charlotte's problems on defense start with Lamella. Like he's the guy that you want to go find, but Westbrook doesn't do that.
Starting point is 00:37:20 He doesn't like go, Hey, let's figure out a way to get somebody matched up with the guy that we want to attack. It doesn't really that he doesn't like go hey let's figure out a way to get somebody matched up with the guy that we want to attack it doesn't really happen um he also got hit on a loose rebound where he went down late i don't know if that i don't know if that fogged him up a little bit because i was kind of waiting because he had one aborted drive in a bad pass and then he had another one where he kicked it out to ruey and ruey just didn't have enough time to work off a three-point
Starting point is 00:37:41 line so there wasn't really that big moment so he didn't make nearly as big of a mistake as i made last week when i have to come clean on this one and that when i was talking about westbrook throughout his career in the postseason and i said he wasn't a big part of the finals team that was just wrong i should have rephrased it and said it was interesting that that team back then in some of those crunch time moments in the playoffs would run the offense through harden because westbrook's numbers i went back i was like i don't know why i said it that way because he had like 40 in one of those finals games. So that was a bad, bad,
Starting point is 00:38:06 far worse than anything he did today. Yeah. Well, they're gonna be tough out. Those two guys really like playing with each other. There's a lot of respect. You are playing games, not in the actual playoffs and the playing games.
Starting point is 00:38:22 They're going to be a hard team to play. How resigned are you to like, what, what's going to happen to Boston? Can we do this now? Yeah, I'm just going to, I might turn my mic off.
Starting point is 00:38:32 Stop taping. No, no, this is quick because people think this is a bit and it's really not. Um, I had actually would rather they lost to the wizards so they could play in the 1-8 game. I think they could compete with Philly. I don't think they'd beat Philly,
Starting point is 00:38:49 but I think there would be a respectable performance. If I have to watch the Celtics team after this piece of shit season they had with all the dumb shit that happened, get their asses kicked by Brooklyn, and then hug Kyrie after every game after he's just lighting them up, I'm,
Starting point is 00:39:09 I'm honestly not going to watch the last Celtics team where I was like, I'm out. I'm not even going to watch these games was the Oh four that John Carroll season when that whole team was like, had packed for Cancun after game two. I'm not going to watch them like dap up Kyrie after these playoff games. This is one of the softest Celtics teams ever. It's a perfect fodder to just get the shit kicked out of them by Brooklyn. And it's going to suck. And I'm not going to like it. And then they're going to be showing the graphic about, well, you remember once upon a time,
Starting point is 00:39:36 they were saying Boston got the better of Brooklyn when they got all those draft picks. Well, look at this now. They're about to get swept. It's going to fucking suck. And I just have better things to do and i'm not and i i i just have better things to do i'm not gonna torture myself with it would you rather watch a 1-8 sweeping by philadelphia than a game seven loss to brooklyn
Starting point is 00:39:58 no game seven loss would be great that means we beat them a couple times yeah but that's gonna you're gonna talk yourself into it a little bit. Brooklyn's going to kill Boston. They're going to kill them. It's going to be a demolition. By the way, why do you think they could compete with Philadelphia? Because I think Philly is an easier team to potentially hang with than this Brooklyn team with those three guys.
Starting point is 00:40:24 And Kyrie, who is, every time he plays plays Boston plays like his life depends on the game. If he had played like that in the 2019 playoffs, we would have won the title. I just don't want to see it. I don't, I couldn't stand that Boston team either. Cause everybody always says like, you guys be like,
Starting point is 00:40:39 Oh, you're just mad. He left. I'm like, if you'd watched him every night, you couldn't wait until he left. I was mad that he left before the final playoff series. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:40:47 I just feel like Philly is a more manageable team to play. I think they would have a lot of issues, but I do think, you know, and Beatle get his 30 and 15. You just got to live it. But, you know, it's not like they're the deepest team and you could do, Stevens can do some stuff and try to. Yeah, but it's not Brett Brown anymore. It's not Brett they're the deepest team and you could do stevens can do some stuff and chat
Starting point is 00:41:06 him yeah but it's not brett brown anymore it's not brett brown waiting until game four to realize so it's not it's not they're gonna get smoked by both of those teams and you're probably right i think they have a better chance to hang against philly it's it's 100 the kairi hug fest after the losses because the first time they did the first time they did it it was like oh okay but that's the thing that everybody has to understand like kairi i think you and i are in agreement here especially because i think we're a little bit more plugged in than the let kairi be himself guy tweeting that four times this season um that you know there's some stuff with him professionally that you just you'd want somebody to do a better job okay like i'm trying to be nice
Starting point is 00:41:50 about it but it's just like hey you know if you're gonna bail it'd be great if you told us um and if you bail again like we're just supposed to keep respecting it i know you know religiously he's he's at a different level and all that kind of stuff all right fine but guys in the league love them guys really like them i mean the reason blake ended up there and i would i would text with somebody i was like why you know obvious beyond the obvious best chance maybe to win a championship for blake but it's like blake loves kairi like those guys just vibe together they're and i was like oh wow all right cool and so when you watch kairi kick boston's ass like those games the first time they were all over him and it was a big media moment you're yo, you guys thought there was ill will.
Starting point is 00:42:26 Look how much these guys love him. Like, yeah, they love him. But it also speaks to how like embarrassing it is. Like the second time it happened. And then the third time it happened. And you're like, so what are you guys going to do? An entire series of Kyrie dribbling through every single one of you. And then you guys can't wait to tell him how awesome you think he is when you're competing against him. So that was tough.
Starting point is 00:42:42 That would be tough for anyone that is a fan of their team to see somebody else smoke them and then see the entire team. And again, it kind of speaks to a lack of toughness that we've seen from Boston all season long. Well, and then the one time he didn't play well against him, he left the court, didn't do the dapping everybody thing. That's Sunday game when he wasn't, when he didn't play well, he just, he just walked off at that point.
Starting point is 00:43:02 He usually does. He does the dap up thing when it's, it's always after he's't play well. He just walked off at that point. He usually does the dap up thing when it's... It's always after he's played really well. It seems like that's when he's willing to have 40 handshakes. I'm already working up some animosity for this series, but they have no chance. And to be honest, Philly's probably the only team that can hang with that team
Starting point is 00:43:22 if those three guys are all going to be healthy. And I think we're all in denial if we don't think that. As much as I enjoy Miami, with their wings, with playing Ariza and Iguodala 50 minutes a game now, they're not going to beat Brooklyn. It's not happening. I don't see how...
Starting point is 00:43:40 I mean, even Harden back out of shape, Bill, in some of those games, it didn't even matter. It doesn't matter with him. His shooting, we'll see. We all know the Harden playoff thing on the free throws can be something that happens, but it feels like it's almost if Harden gets 11 or 12 free throws in game three, then maybe the next group is like, hey,
Starting point is 00:43:59 let's tighten up a little bit. We let him get a couple. I mean, he just doesn't get the same calls that he gets in the regular season. It's something I'm going to be looking for with Trey Young as well to see if a crew goes in. He got us a bunch of times the other game, so let's see what happens, even though the crews change, obviously.
Starting point is 00:44:15 But I think for you to say Philly has the best chance, that's fine. Do you think there's this wide gap between Milwaukee's chances and Philly's chances against Brooklyn? No. Because I don't either. No. I just think that becomes a best player in the series series.
Starting point is 00:44:29 And I trust Embiid's ability to be the best player in a Brooklyn series slightly more than Giannis. That's where I'm going mentally. We've seen enough with Giannis that if you want to try to force him to kind of make decisions with the basketball further
Starting point is 00:44:46 away from the hoop than he wants to, there's just a different level of intensity locking in and playing him back to back in all these games, knowing, hey, these are our rules. This is what we want to do, where if you catch him on a random Tuesday, you got in late the night before. Maybe you go, you know what I mean? There's all sorts of things that can happen over the regular season where you're not as locked in, but the playoff matchup part of it, I think it gets easier to kind of stop guys that are a little bit more limited from what their regular season offensive repertoire is. Brooklyn has not established that they could handle Joel Embiid for two
Starting point is 00:45:17 weeks. Now that doesn't mean they can't beat them, but it just seems like that's a really fun series for him. If he's going to be going basically against Deandre Jordan and he's going to go off, he's absolutely going to go off and Blake Griffin. But here, here's the other thing I like with Philly in that series,
Starting point is 00:45:33 Simmons and Tybalt, you could argue those are the two best wing defenders in the league. You could argue that they're one, two Simmons is definitely one. You could argue Tybalt's too. And that gives them two guys to throw on Kyrie and Harden. And then
Starting point is 00:45:50 the Durant thing, you just have to put Harris on him and he's going to probably get smoked, but at least you have Embiid protecting the rim a little bit. But they have guys... I'm not going to say they're going to shut down Kyrie and Harden, but it's not going to be a layup line. Those two guys will make them work. And Tybal is a fucking pain in the ass.
Starting point is 00:46:10 KOC did a great video on him last week or two weeks ago. Um, one of those guys, and I assume it's going to be Tybal will be assigned to Kyrie and he's just going to bug them, pester them, follow them around and annoy the hell out of them and try to get in his head. And I don't, I just think it's very possible to get in Kyrie's head. That's my expert opinion. The Harden thing is Simmons and Simmons is the best possible guy you could put on James Harden. Again, James Harden is awesome. He's going to get his offense no matter who he's playing. But if you're going to pick the perfect guy to guard Harden, you would say taller guy, great athlete,
Starting point is 00:46:47 somebody who falls them around, who really takes the challenge personally. So they have options on both ends. And then it becomes, this is why Brooklyn's such a potentially great team is it's like, well, cool. You don't have anyone guard Durant.
Starting point is 00:47:00 He's, he's going to torture you guys now. So they're always going to have options, but I just like the way Philly matches up with them. I love that they're big. I know it sounds really simple, but all the guys that we're talking about have size, have real size. Tobias doesn't move the way Simmons does,
Starting point is 00:47:16 and the decision for Doc is going to be the Seth Curry minutes. Do I want the spacing? Knowing that I think we all have seen this enough with Simmons offensively, it's a completely different challenge for him in those closing moments with that team when he's out there, because then you can kind of gang up on some other guys because you can just ignore him. I mean, he's never going to hit, like I made a joke on my podcast last week, but I'm never going to click on an article again that talks about Ben Simmons working on his outside shot. I was breaking news. I'm reporting this right now. It's never happening. It's never
Starting point is 00:47:43 happening. Like he's never going to decide always like, hey, you know what? Now I'm reporting this right now. It's never happening. It's never happening. Like, he's never going to decide to always, like, hey, you know what? Now I'm comfortable doing this. He doesn't even want to take him, right? So we've been over all that stuff. So will it be Seth Curry with spacing or will it be, let's forsake spacing here
Starting point is 00:47:56 to continue to have more switchable size with these guys defensively? And I'm sure Doc's going to try both things at different times, but we may not know until the end. But I'm picking Philadelphia to win the East. Interesting. So you agree that they match up the best with Brooklyn?
Starting point is 00:48:12 Yeah. Well, I just think they're good, Bill. I think they're good. I think we're incredibly dismissive now of defensive stats. Maybe that's the right way to be. But some of these splits for Philly, looking at later chunks of the season, Philly's just better than everybody else.
Starting point is 00:48:28 And it's like, eh, whatever. And Brooklyn, I get it. It's horrifying. It's horrifying to think that when those three guys are together, what they're capable of offensively. But I think the other part of it is that Embiid, hey, what do we always do when Embiid is at the end of the game and he's losing the playoffs?
Starting point is 00:48:43 We look at him, his hands are on his shorts, he's sweating, and he looks out of shape. I think he's going to look like that all the time. I think when they win playoff games, I think that's just the way he's going to look. And even though you're going to want to make Embiid make decisions on how he has to figure out, do I stay up on these high screens or do I drop, which is pretty much what everybody has to worry about as a big and the way the game is played today. There's not really going to be any guy though, that he has to bang with for 40 plus minutes. Like there's something to be said of just having to run around with this other Neanderthal, just hanging on you and boxing you out and elbowing the shit out of
Starting point is 00:49:18 you. Like, is that going to be Blake for 38 minutes? You know, is it going to be Nick Claxton? Is it going to be Deandre Jordan? I think that part of it for Embiid, as much as the switching part is always a challenge for the big guys against the perimeter stuff, there's another part of it
Starting point is 00:49:32 where it's almost going to feel like it's a rest for him in some of these playoff games because the physical part of it, he's going to be so dominant against whatever combination they want to put out there against him.
Starting point is 00:49:40 He kind of stole my thunder. Oh. And I'm going to explain why right after the break. You can tease it better than that. You kind of stole my thunder, but first, why diarrhea might be a sign of something worse.
Starting point is 00:49:58 All right. So here's what I wrote down before we did the podcast. Philly, what a miracle exclamation point avoids Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Miami until the East finals with the way this worked out. Cause Miami is in that three,
Starting point is 00:50:15 six bracket plus two 60 to win East on FanDuel. I think those odds are crazy. I think if I had to bet my life on one team in the East, for all the reasons you just mentioned, plus this one, Brooklyn has to play Milwaukee in round two, right? And if it's not Milwaukee, it's Miami. You have these three guys, Herb, it's like, well, the three guys are healthy, and I agree.
Starting point is 00:50:39 They're fucking terrifying. But it just seems like they've had the year from hell trying to keep these three guys together, right? It's been one thing after another just keeping these three guys off the court. So we have to bet on that happening. Also have to bet on Brett Griffin staying healthy for three straight playoff series. The guy's had eight surgeries.
Starting point is 00:50:58 They're really relying on him. He's playing 30 minutes a game. It's gotten to the point that if he got hurt, I think they'd be in a lot of trouble. He's important to them. He was this weird luxury name that didn't make it. They were like, I get it. And then you're watching going, all right, they better get Blake back in, which is great.
Starting point is 00:51:13 I'm psyched for him, but he's important. I'm going to go further. Other than Durant, I think he's their best defensive player. He's at everybody. And Durant's not there yet. And Durant isn't there from a health standpoint, but I think just his instincts on what to do and where to go and all that stuff.
Starting point is 00:51:30 Yeah. Um, but, and, and the two times Harden gets it in the post defensively and the announcers tell us how amazing he is as a post defender. Well, and also you talk about a team that I think is a little fragile from a
Starting point is 00:51:41 personality standpoint, rookie coach, a lot of new pieces, a lot of guys who haven't been in big pressure situations like this. And then you have Philly. Okay. Wait a minute. Wait,
Starting point is 00:51:52 but wait a minute. I mean, Kyrie hit the all timer. The rant. I'm talking about the other guys. I'm talking about like the, you know, Joe Harris,
Starting point is 00:52:00 those types of guys. They UVA, UVA Duke. The first time I watched Joe Harris, it was like, this guy can do, I type of guys. UVA Duke, the first time I watched Joe Harris, I was like, this guy can do... I was having Italian outside of my place in West Hartford. I was sitting at this overpriced Italian place, sitting at the bar watching Joe Harris.
Starting point is 00:52:14 I was like, this guy can do some things. Sorry. The role players, this is different stakes. Philly has some guys that have at least gotten a taste of it over the last few years, then Doc Rivers. But they're going to have home court. And more importantly, I just know they're going to be in the Easter Finals. They're not losing in round one.
Starting point is 00:52:31 They're not losing in round two. Round one, they're getting the most unbelievable gift of all time. They get to either play Boston or Washington. And then round two, they're going to play Atlanta and Knicks. They're going to beat those teams unless Atlanta shoots the lights out and goes completely bonkers, which isn't inconceivable. But I just think it's lined up better for them. And I like the fact, I think this is great.
Starting point is 00:52:54 I've talked about this many times in my pod over the years. I like the fact that people have penciled Brooklyn in. I think from a motivational standpoint, you and I both followed Doc for a long time. This is Doc 101 right now. This is... They're going to think they were the eighth seed on Monday. Oh, he's going to be like, one seed? People don't even think we should be here. He's going to do that all
Starting point is 00:53:16 day. Brooklyn, Brooklyn, Brooklyn. He's going to pray on this. What was that interview with Trump where the guy kept turning the paper upside down? He's going to be hitting it to be like, they have his eighth. Right. So I just think that team's going to be really, really, really, really motivated. And I don't know, man.
Starting point is 00:53:35 Embiid is fucking terrifying. When Embiid really wants it, he still has the highest ceiling of anybody we've seen this year of any player. And I'm voting for Jokic for MVP. And I think he's had a way better MVP season than I think he's even gotten credit for it. But Embiid had a couple games this year where you're just like it was like Shaq 2000.
Starting point is 00:53:53 You're just going, holy shit. What do you do against this guy? Did you know that when Jokic wins this, he's the only other second rounder to win the MVP? Who was the first one? I can't remember.
Starting point is 00:54:10 Willis Reed. But Willis Reed was in a draft. Oh yeah, it was like a 12-player draft. He was the 10th pick. Yeah. Yeah, so if you go on FanDuel right now, Brooklyn is basically even odds to win the East, plus 105.
Starting point is 00:54:26 Philly is plus 260. Milwaukee is plus 350. Miami is 12 to 1. Atlanta is 30 to 1. I'm just telling you people out there, you have the ability to bet on this if you're in one of the FanDuel states. Plus 260. Philly is going to be in the Eastern Finals. Unless
Starting point is 00:54:42 Embiid gets hurt. Who knows? If he doesn't, they're going to be in the Eastern Finals. But you can just go against that when you get into the finals. You can hedge it. Easy. And then Philly to win the title is 8-1, which for some reason,
Starting point is 00:54:58 and that's on FanDuel, Brooklyn's 2-1 basically. Lakers are 5-1. Clippers are 6-1. Jazz 6-1. Jazz six to one. Milwaukee eight to one. Philly eight to one. So they don't have the finals matchup bets,
Starting point is 00:55:10 but I think Lakers-Philly is a great finals bet. That would be my finals matchup bet, which would probably be something if the Lakers to win the West are plus 240 and the Sixers are plus 260. That's going to be at least five to one, maybe even higher. I like that as a bet.
Starting point is 00:55:27 You had a point there though about Embiid. And none of this was surprising. Okay. I always thought that whoever starts off their career, not playing and then playing in 30 games. And we're like three years in and you play 30 games. You're like, okay, even when he's great, how long is he going to stay healthy?
Starting point is 00:55:43 And even though there've been some blips for the most part, he's been far healthier than I would have thought any of us would be. Being honest about it, like, all right, is he going to hold up? We constantly hear, oh, he doesn't eat right. He's out of shape. He doesn't take it. All these different things. When he's right, when he's having those five-minute stretches of a game, it's up there with anybody else. It really is. Like the Zion stuff is fun and exciting. I mean, Anthony Davis had a play and it's, this is really interesting, but I was watching Anthony Davis. He grabbed a rebound, dribbled end to end, inside out, dribble, turn down the screen,
Starting point is 00:56:18 finishes the layup. And it was one of those moments where you're like, who the hell, who does that? And Embiid might be able to, I don't know. He would have made it look as good as Davis and it may have been a little flukier. And I couldn't, and then a guy who was advanced scouting, cause they had a matchup against Anthony Davis later, sent me this video was like, did you see this? And I go, I can't believe you just sent me this because this, this moment by itself was one of those things where I just kind of said something out loud in my living room when no one else is around.
Starting point is 00:56:44 But Embiid will have those stretches where you go, when this guy is right, and I know we do with this a lot because the top of the league is so deep and it's so impressive, but Embiid is capable of having moments where you're like, I don't know that there's anybody better than him, which I don't think is hyperbole. I don't think it's completely out of control to think. If Embiid went on a run and they won a title, the carryover of what we would think of, there would never be a top five list without Embiid
Starting point is 00:57:11 if he puts together a real playoff run. There's a lot of chip on the shoulder stuff with this Philly team, including the Embiid not winning the MVP I think is a piece. Doc Rivers, all the stuff that's happened to him since 2008, all the playoff losses,
Starting point is 00:57:28 can't get it done with the big one. You got Daryl Morey there. Just got fired. I mean, look, Doc just got fired with a team that was like catered. You never thought he was going to lose that gig. Well, and then Daryl, not that Daryl's playing in the games, but another one who got to the cusp a bunch of times, who built
Starting point is 00:57:43 the third best team, basically, uh, of the second half of the decade, got nothing to show for it other than a couple devastating losses. So it's there too, but I just love that they have home court. I think I gotta be honest. I think home court is going to matter as we get into these further rounds. I think even having 10,000 fans there is going to be a real thing. And again, with Brooklyn, can't emphasize this strongly enough. We've seen this over and over again with teams that get thrown together. That first year can be iffy dicey. It didn't happen with the Lakers last year, but the Lakers have LeBron,
Starting point is 00:58:19 who's the second best player of all time and had a lot of his people and a lot of his DNA in that team. And you also had the Rondo piece there. And it was a weirdly veteran team that didn't feel like a team that was thrown together. That wasn't tough enough, all that stuff. This, this Nets team, everything is new. Even the coach, coach has never been in the playoffs before. And I think he, I think he's a great job. I might actually vote him third for coach of the year, Nash. Who are you voting first? I think I'm going to do Monty.
Starting point is 00:58:49 Monty one. Tibbs two. And Nash three. No Quinn, huh? No, there's four people for three spots. But Brooklyn went 47-24. None of those guys played. They had a massive trade.
Starting point is 00:59:05 Kyrie left twice. They lost Jared Allen. They lost LaVert. They had LaMarcus Aldridge. He disappeared after five games because he had to retire. They're relying on Blake. They're bringing in Claxton. No, the number of lineups.
Starting point is 00:59:20 The number of lineups. I mean, that's kind of a credit, too, to Harden. Much like the year where Harden was taking a million shots there and putting up those absurd numbers over six weeks, that was out of necessity, and Houston still won games. And so for all the guys that I can get frustrated with because it's like, cool, this guy put up a huge stat line again, and they lost.
Starting point is 00:59:38 Like, why am I supposed to be thinking that this guy's the next coming? And I think some of the Harden conversation probably went a little too far when he was on that run but Harden was a steadying force but I think in those real gut check moments for a team that's new see this is where the Philly says I'm saying
Starting point is 00:59:56 this out loud though because I know I know what's going to happen right it's like is Durant all the way the alpha has he done enough for you to go like okay bail us out, figure this out? And I'd like to think that he is. Is Kyrie that? If Durant's healthy, he is,
Starting point is 01:00:11 but we haven't seen him play a month straight. Right. And that's a real thing that I think people are just skipping over as they think about the playoffs. It's like, do you trust Durant to play four straight playoff rounds from what we've seen?
Starting point is 01:00:22 Do you trust it? I think the best question is, do you trust the entire cast to be there for four straight playoffsoff rounds from what we've seen? Do you trust it? I think the best question is, do you trust the entire cast to be there for four straight playoff rounds without any issues? Yeah. And Harden's usually...
Starting point is 01:00:32 Four straight playoff rounds. Harden's usually always healthy. This was pretty unprecedented for him. You know, Kyrie's... But he's also an older player who has got a lot of miles on him. Yeah, I don't know. I think he could play without ACLs
Starting point is 01:00:44 and still get... Like, I'm serious. Like that's watching him back this week. And he wasn't even looking to shoot all that much. And I forget which game it was because that's my new favorite thing. You turn it on one of the games on one of the second or third TVs. And then you're like, have I been thinking the team in gray is the Spurs the whole time? And the Spurs are actually not in gray.
Starting point is 01:01:03 And the other team, like, have you noticed that with some of the uniform combinations lately? Yeah, I hate it. I just go, what's the goal now at the end? Hey, we want you to not know who you're rooting for the first two minutes when you change the channel. For all of this stuff, I just think to be consistent with it, though.
Starting point is 01:01:21 I've already gone ahead and picked Philadelphia. Do I love it? Love it? No, because I'm scared of Brooklyn. But some of the same doubts you can apply to Brooklyn, you could also do the same thing with Philadelphia. Being like, hey, why would I benefit of the doubt, trust, toughness, key moments Simmons and Embiid when
Starting point is 01:01:38 they don't exactly have the playoff resume the guys on Brooklyn do, even though it's a new version of it. And can they play Simmons and Tybalt together in crunch time and go three on five offensively? It's going to be really interesting to watch. I would want that if I were Brooklyn.
Starting point is 01:01:53 Cool. Good. Awesome. You guys can switch and you're along and stuff. We don't have to guard two of your guys. It was like when Oklahoma City used to play Perkins and Roberson to close. And you would just go, well, no shit. This is really tough for Russ and Kevin.
Starting point is 01:02:11 Because there's two guys we don't have to defend. Well, my guess is they'll stagger Simmons and Tybo as much as they can. But I think Tybo will play probably like fifth or sixth most minutes. They have the green thing that they do. I'm being sure to see... Maxie has flashes. Yeah, yeah. Where you go,
Starting point is 01:02:33 is this guy... Are we going to hear from this guy in the playoffs? Like in... He's not... I don't think he's... Where it's like the Maxie game, game three,
Starting point is 01:02:39 it's like, holy shit, Ty... Maxie won this game for them? Yeah, I don't think he's going to be scared. He will not be scared. That's the only guarantee I have. I'm a fan. Let me ask you this. Who would be the most fun team
Starting point is 01:02:51 to knock Brooklyn out? What team would fire you? Because there's a Miami Jimmy Buckets Pat Riley Spolstra case that's kind of fun. It's like, oh, you got your little Brooklyn Big 3 thing? How about a little heat culture
Starting point is 01:03:07 for you? Milwaukee would be fun because of the Giannis thing, the fact that their fans kind of hit rock bottom last year. Drew Holiday finally being in a real series. P.J. Tucker piece. What about
Starting point is 01:03:23 a Subway Eastern Conference Finals? Knicks-Brooklyn? Yeah, you're right. That would be the most fun. But I don't feel like the Knicks would have any chance in that series. Just make sure we get to the Knicks. They have to actually hurt the other players.
Starting point is 01:03:35 Just let me know when we get there. We're doing it right now. We're going to take one more break and then we're going to do... Let's hit the other two series quick. All right, so quickly. Playing game, Indy Charlotte. We both think Indy's going to win that one, right?
Starting point is 01:03:54 Yeah. Yeah, I don't, I mean. Do you know what the line is? Want to guess? I'll say Pacers minus three and a half. Pacers by one and a half. No. Pacers started six and a half. Pacers by one and a half. Pacers started six and two, finished 28 and 36.
Starting point is 01:04:12 Charlotte is nine and 19 without Hayward, six and 14 their last 20. So this is quite a battle. I guess the two things with Indiana worth mentioning, other than the fact that they had a revolt against their coach, seemingly like yesterday, and he survived it. mentioning other than the fact that they had a revolt against their coach, like seemingly like yesterday. And, uh, and he survived it.
Starting point is 01:04:27 Karis Leverts last 20, 24, five and five. How many shots? I mean, probably a lot. So bonus in may 23, 14 and 11.
Starting point is 01:04:38 He's been like on fire lights out for, uh, since he came back. So he's great. Remember we're going to do our top 30 players yeah yeah i mean that's why caris that's why i still think there's like a long-term deal with the pacers where i go i like a lot of the pieces but to have tj brogdon and caris laver all have like that's gonna be they'll have to make it one of those guys are gonna be there
Starting point is 01:04:59 first of all because there's just no i i don't think Karras is a really talented guy that, you know, we've been over it, but I still think that they were better when Brogdon was making the decision with Sabonis. And it'd be nice if LaVert scores off of that, but I don't think he's ever going to do that. And then you add in the Warren factor where he was putting in numbers that were just absurd for him. So yeah, you look, I mean, the Pacers should win that because Charlotte is a guard team that's pretty dependent on Rozier and Graham and Lomelo going to hit ridiculous shots. Although
Starting point is 01:05:33 Lomelo, his start-stop is so good. The way he can, at that size, dribble to a stop and then pick it back up again. But another thing he's getting away with because he's young is he is hammering the shit out of bigs that come over to contest him at the rim with his off arm.
Starting point is 01:05:51 He's like slapping their arms away. He's got some veteran shit to him already, but for whatever reason, he's getting away with it. Whenever I think about him now against Lonzo, Lonzo was fundamentally probably a better player, but then again, he's shooting. so I'm probably thinking about the Lonzo now Lonzo's a good shooter you get some really good numbers there but
Starting point is 01:06:10 Lomelo has the attitude and personality on the court that we all wanted Lonzo to have that I don't think he's clearly is not going to have this far in does that make sense to you like Lomelo there's no doubt at all and that was a turn off when I watched him in Australia but now I'm like oh this is exactly where he kind of
Starting point is 01:06:26 needs to be where Lonzo even though he can hit shots he makes great passes I think he's a really good defender team defender there's just moments where he's completely disappearing and LaMelo's not going to be like that as he gets older there's never going to be a moment where you're like oh is LaMelo out there and that's who Lonzo's become at times
Starting point is 01:06:41 can I can I spin this in ESPN afternoon show language? LaMelo's very alpha-y sometimes. And I just don't think Lonzo is alpha-y at all. He's more in that Wiggins camp. Okay, but can you be an alpha if you're a tight end for the Jags? That's coming up next. You know what I love love i love the same thing
Starting point is 01:07:06 about lamell i love how he takes to the basket and how physical and it's not just like him pulling out like he likes like jumping into dudes and uh he's hammering guys with his off arm i really enjoy watching him i don't think he's healthy either there was a couple times during the game today 81 where he was just like playing with his wrist and like twisting it. Like he was like, I got to put my ligament back. Bertans knocked the shit
Starting point is 01:07:31 out of him on a drive today. 88%? Here are my predictions. What's 88%? LaMelo Alpha? I was asking for you. No, I was asking for your LaMelo
Starting point is 01:07:42 product. Oh, his wrist? No, I just wanted, what did you see from him if he's not 100? I was asking for your LaMelo. His wrist? No, I just wanted, what did you see from him if he's not 100? I always like your numbers. I think his wrist is like 74%. He keeps touching it.
Starting point is 01:07:54 It's unhealthy. That sounds right. Thanks. 74 feels right. Thank you. I think Indy wins and I think Washington beats the Celtics. I won't bet on it.
Starting point is 01:08:07 Cause I don't bet against my team when in games that actually matter. It doesn't feel right. I think it violates karma rules, but I just think Washington will have two, three best players in the game. They'll play probably harder. They'll probably be up 10 in the first quarter. Cause the Celtics will roll over like they always do.
Starting point is 01:08:23 And I don't think the Celtics team knows who they are. I don't think they know who their best players are. I think deep down they might not be unhappy if the season ended. It's not like an overt thing. It's just one of those things. Sometimes it's not your season.
Starting point is 01:08:39 When you have a chance to parachute out of the plane and just jump into the trees, you take it. I really think this team will I really think this team will roll over when it has a chance to roll over. It's one of those teams. You had to watch them all year to understand where you're coming from.
Starting point is 01:08:54 And I don't know why anyone, are they more talented than those other teams in this playoff scenario? No question. They fell behind by 20 14 times this year. They fell behind by 10. I think 40 of the 72 games was the final number. It's just, I mean, how many times can you watch it?
Starting point is 01:09:11 You go through it and you're like, okay, what was the sign? And you're like, okay, this Cavs game is a must win down huge. The Cavs who don't want to win. All right, let's go play Chicago. OKC was the rock. I was going to go. I was going to go in reverse and get there, but when OKC's won one game in two months and it's against you.
Starting point is 01:09:31 Intentionally trying to lose. Yeah, like they don't want to play anyone. They sent Al Horford home. They didn't even want him near the team. Right. Shea Gildress Alexander is like the youngest dude ever to be DNP'd. Right.
Starting point is 01:09:44 Shea's like, can I keep playing? I'm only 22. I'm trying to get DNP. And she's like, she's like, can I keep playing? I'm only 22. I'm trying to get better. They're like, no, cool.
Starting point is 01:09:49 Go home. Stay away. Do you think we'll have, there'll be a podcast 20 years from now where the guys are going over these historic numbers and they start arguing like about where player ranks on all time stats are. But then the guy will be like, yeah,
Starting point is 01:10:02 but he DNP'd six of his last eight seasons at 25% of the season. You have to factor that in. And it's like a real thing that's understood. His team didn't want to play him. They didn't care. So I think Washington beats the Celtics. I don't think it'll, I don't think it'll be an easy win for the wizards. I think it'll, I think there'll be up 10, there'll be up 13. The Celts will make a late run. Westbrook will throw the ball away. All of a sudden, the Celts will be down 2 with the ball with 10 seconds left, and Tatum
Starting point is 01:10:29 will take a step back 3 and miss it. And that'll be it. And they'll go to the 9-10 game against Indiana. And guess what? I don't think they're beating Indiana either. I think the Celtics go home. I really do. I think they lose both games. You think they're going to lose 2? I do. I think they lose both games. I think they're going to lose two? I do. I think they lose both games.
Starting point is 01:10:46 I think they're going to lose the Washington too. I'm not even saying this as a reverse jinx. I don't think they're going to win either game. I don't know how anybody could watch the Wizards the last month and a half or watch the Celtics the last month and a half and be like, oh, the Celtics figured it out. Again, no Jalen. Kemba's been better.
Starting point is 01:11:00 Kemba and Tatum having a game. And then the Robert Williams part of it. And he's been, it's been better. I mean, look, if they won and they end up in the two seven, I'm not going to be shocked either, but there's no, I will be shocked. I'll be shocked if you're shocked. You're going to be shocked if they're, if they beat Washington, I think this shocked is too much.
Starting point is 01:11:18 That's too much. I'm going to be shocked. I've watched them all year. They roll over anytime they have a chance to roll over. They roll over. They know it. How many team meetings could this team have? Do you think they should do something where they start all backups to send a message?
Starting point is 01:11:32 First two minutes, like do a Duke senior night thing where Carson Edwards and Waters go out. And then, I don't know. I'm not kidding. I say this unironically. I actually was talking to a friend of mine about the Celtics saying that I really genuinely felt like they should play taco because at least when taco was out there, the other team would get thrown off for a few minutes. And there's such good energy from having taco. The other Celtics try harder because they love taco. So just fucking play him.
Starting point is 01:12:01 Nothing else has worked. We've tried 130 lineups. Just play taco. Put them out there. Let've tried 130 lineups. Just play taco. Put him out there. Let him run around and hold his hands up. At least it's something. This is like my Tatum taking 27 shots a game and everybody else standing around and Marcus being like clear out, clear out. I've added some offense to my game.
Starting point is 01:12:19 It's like, no, you have it. So this is this is like my Chuck Knobloch advice that I gave him. What was that? I just said hey man look have you have you ever thought of just putting a glove on your right hand and then throwing the first lefty like 50 100 times and then when you put the glove back on your normal hand and throw righty it's just going to feel better and he was like i don't want to fucking talk to you. I was like, okay. When taco comes in,
Starting point is 01:12:47 I remember that story. It's a good one. When taco comes in, you could see the other team for three minutes going like, what do we do? What is this? This is weird. He,
Starting point is 01:12:57 he changes the game for three minutes. Then when they add like the six minute mark, people figure it out. But I I'm serious. I would play taco. I would try anything. Um, all right. Quickly on playoffs. So Philly beats whoever.
Starting point is 01:13:10 Brooklyn's going to beat either team. But Brooklyn-Washington is way more fun. Because at least Washington, Beal and Westbrook will think, we belong with these guys. Anyone could win this series. Finally, we get to play against our peers. And they'll treat that like it's the finals.
Starting point is 01:13:26 And we also have the Westbrook KD thing, which I think would be really fun. Right? Those guys go in a playoff series. I'm also looking forward to Westbrook being 1-10 from 3. And then blocking Durant's shot in a close game. It's like they're down 3-0 and they win game 4. And Westbrook celebrates like Does the prance? Yeah, like Westbrook celebrates
Starting point is 01:13:45 like he just stormed Normandy. Two more series, Atlanta-Knicks. So this one's weird because I do like this Atlanta team, but it doesn't look like Hunter is going to be Hunter, at least in round one. He's played two games.
Starting point is 01:14:01 He's played two games. Didn't look like himself. And honestly, because they've been so much better now, too. I mean, Atlanta's behind Denver April 1st on. Denver has 18 wins. Atlanta and the Knicks, by the way, both had 17 wins. So you can't dismiss the Knicks part of it, which I know we're going to get to.
Starting point is 01:14:15 But they have depth now where the Hunter minutes, I think it's going to be an experiment in the playoffs. Because look, he was their second best player this season until he got hurt. And then in that absence, these other guys have stepped up. So it's going to be kind of, it's a good problem to have, but it's definitely a challenge.
Starting point is 01:14:34 I like Atlanta as a stealth. I know we both thought Philly was going to come out of the East, but I do think, is there a world where Atlanta beats Philly in a playoff series? Sure. I wouldn't be like stunned. I wouldn't be stunned by anything in these playoffs other than the Lakers not making it out of round one. But here's the case for the Knicks.
Starting point is 01:14:55 So they're 14-4 in their last 18. Rose, during that stretch, is basically 18 a game, shooting 55% from the field. They played Atlanta three times this year. They won all three Randall in those three games, 37, 12, and seven. This is the team he's succeeded against the most. And it makes sense. I actually watched the entire next Atlanta game that went in overtime the last time they played. And Atlanta does not have anybody to guard him. It's a, just a bad matchup for, for them.
Starting point is 01:15:29 And he was getting any shot he wanted. He was really comfortable. You know, I go back and forth with the season series thing, but I do think there's something to learn from it sometimes. And in this case, Randall does really well against Atlanta. Like just let's start there.
Starting point is 01:15:46 Atlanta, the way they shoot threes isn't as great as it seems like it is when you're watching them sometimes when they go in. They're basically 37% from three. Bogdanovich has been lights out, but Trey hasn't shot as well as you thought. No hunter hurts them or compromise hunter, whatever. And as much as I think like I'm penciling in Atlanta, the Randall Tibbs, Rose, MSG, the however many home games there, you know, they're going to at least have a possible game seven. Do you think Atlanta is ready to actually win a giant game in
Starting point is 01:16:21 New York? Even if it's like a half full fans when the other team has a really good guy that they can't guard? The simple part of that, I think, well, no, because I haven't ever seen it before. I mean, this is a team that even coming off a disastrous last year, record wise, like you look back at last year, like, man, they were even worse than maybe you would think. But because it was the Trey Young story and making the all-star team and all that kind of stuff, it was like, oh, wait, this is great because Trey's really good. But man, that team's terrible. And then it looked like it was another carryover.
Starting point is 01:16:48 They're going to be terrible defensively and all these different things. But they get Nate in. Bogdanovich comes back right as Nate comes back or takes over from Lloyd. And as I mentioned, that record part of it. So the easy answer is to say no. And I know when you and I have been like, hey, man, I just think Atlanta's better than New York.
Starting point is 01:17:07 And then you're like, okay, but New York's beaten them three times. But some of these matchup things, I don't know what to do with because usually it's the first thing I look at. I'll be like, hey, let me make sure I'm not making a mistake by looking at the two teams separate of each other
Starting point is 01:17:18 and ignoring what it actually looked like when they played each other. But Hunter played in only one of those games. McDonavich played in two. Danilo played each other. But Hunter played in only one of those games. McDonavich played in two. Danilo played in one. So that part of it is weird. You're right. They don't have anything to do with Randall.
Starting point is 01:17:31 Those Randall numbers are absurd. So this series comes... And by the way, those numbers will happen again in the playoffs. He'll average like 35 a game in this series. And shout out to RJ Barrett, who at 20 years old went from, oh no, is this a disaster? Disaster strong. But when you get your chance on a bad team as a rookie, you're still going to put up
Starting point is 01:17:49 some decent numbers. His numbers are much better now. I mean, he's at 17 a game. He rebounds it pretty well. The assists aren't really going to be there. But the fact that he's at 40% shooting from three and he'll have moments where it's not great, but there's other moments where you're like, they really actually look like they're going to hit on this guy.
Starting point is 01:18:06 And I know they know exactly who they are. They have a toughness to them. That's great. This series is going to be Tibbs trying to turn Trey into something else. And it's going to be, we are going to attack the shit out of him. And we are also going to defend him in ways that we're going to frustrate him. So I think there's going to be a big jump from the regular season stuff that
Starting point is 01:18:30 Trey faces to a Tibbs coach team, but I don't even know that like personnel wise, this isn't even a debate. I like Atlanta's personnel better, but the Randall numbers and Tibbs against Trey is really what's going to decide this.
Starting point is 01:18:47 And the physicality. Like, do they beat the shit out of Atlanta this whole series? How far can they go with the way the game is officiated now? And you can be, we gotta be physical, gotta be physical, but sometimes you can be too physical.
Starting point is 01:19:01 It could swing the game. And then Tibbs, he likes to do this thing where he likes, it's a little Belichickian. Take the thing the other team likes to do and try to twist it to make it so that you're putting them, that guy in a position where either you're playing to his hero side, like they did with Kobe in 2010,
Starting point is 01:19:20 or you're just trying to take him out. In Atlanta's case. It's actually better for the Knicks. If Trey has taken a ton of shots and kind of ball hogging it, right. You don't want the other guys to get, I don't, I'm worried about everybody else. If Trey wants to shoot 30 times in a game, go, go be it. They, I feel like Atlanta is at their best when he's distributing and he has like 24 points and 15 assists and 12 shots. So I wonder like,
Starting point is 01:19:47 are they going to appeal to Trey and try to get him to hear about it? Hey, here's what worries me about the Knicks. I just feel like they're a player short. I don't trust. I, you know, the fact that Taj Gibson plays crunch time and I know tips is comfortable with
Starting point is 01:20:03 them and he knows right place. But man, that would be one of the worst crunch time guys I know tips is comfortable with them and he knows right place. But man, that would be one of the worst crunch time guys to make a round two in a while. He's been washed up for three years and I know he's like, it's better and savvy, all that stuff. But man,
Starting point is 01:20:15 do you see Taj Gibson in a round two? It seems no, that's the part, right? Like whatever happened in the regular season. Like here's another example, Milwaukee, Miami. All right. Yeah. They played each other the 25th and 29th of december and
Starting point is 01:20:29 then they just played this weekend jimmy butler's played in zero of those games so i don't i didn't even i don't it doesn't even matter it doesn't even matter so is the next 30 thing against atlanta a real sign maybe but i can't get past when i start counting who four five six seven eight are i don't think anybody would want the knicks group over atlanta's group i mean would anyone would a knicks fan i mean i look i get it this next story is incredible um there's something to be said of it but i mean i also think there's reality kicks in a little bit going you end up playing some guys that i don't know and then i think the trerey Young free throw thing is part of it too. Like his month to months can get weird where he can go on some stretches
Starting point is 01:21:08 where it looks like he's getting a lot of calls and then he's not. I mean, he's still thinking finished third, maybe your fourth and free throw attempts per game. It wasn't as absurd as it was at the very beginning of the year. He's officiated like a 10 year all-star who's going to the hall of fame. But I don't know if that'll happen. Like in the nineties, if you had a game where you got a bunch of calls, there'd be a correction on it.
Starting point is 01:21:27 I don't even think it's the 90s. I think it was happening still within the last decade. There's so many young officials that I don't think the young official, when they get taken, that they'll remember that. By the way, with Trey, Trey will be on the way
Starting point is 01:21:43 to getting a call and he's already pre complaining about not getting it as the whistle comes in. So one, one thing with this, the three point shooting, the Knicks shot 39% from three this year, which is bizarre, but you look at the stats and it, and it adds up and Rose has actually been making them lately. Um, they're posing-point percentage is 34, which is really good. And that was something, by the way,
Starting point is 01:22:10 that it looked like it was random and it would correct and it would get worse because it was like contested and uncontested threes. They had a really low opponent's three-point percentage against. You're like, well, whatever, that'll even out. And sometimes it just doesn't. Yeah. So more physical team.
Starting point is 01:22:27 They have one awesome player. I think they have a better coach. They have home court. And I guess my, here's the thing with Atlanta. Are you changing your mind here? Are you going? No,
Starting point is 01:22:37 no, no. I think this is, I think this is going to be a long series. And I think Atlanta has to win in six because if this goes to seven and we go to New York, that's a really hard game to win for like a young team that's never played in a game like that, you
Starting point is 01:22:54 know, and they have more talent. I get it. Yeah. But a young team against another group that is new this year as well. True. It's not like we're playing Allen Houston, Charles Oakley and these guys. Right. But Barrett's not like we're playing Allen Houston, Charles Oakley,
Starting point is 01:23:05 and these guys. Right. But Barrett's Barrett and quickly, I would say are really the only ones where it's like, you just start going through and you're like, who do I trust? Randall's been around a while. He's been in the league,
Starting point is 01:23:16 you know, eight years at this point, Rose has been around forever. And tips has been in a lot of these. And I don't know that, that Nick's crowd, I think that'll be a thing in a of these. And I don't know that, that Knicks crowd, I think that'll be a thing in a game seven. And I also wonder if,
Starting point is 01:23:29 um, the whistles will be friendly because it's the Dix and nothing good has happened for them in 20 years. I've refused to pick. I thought the Hawks were going to walk over them in this series and the Randall thing and the home court freaks me out. And I'm, I'm not even making a pick.
Starting point is 01:23:43 I think it's a long series. Um, Milwaukee, Miami. I do have a pick. I think Milwaukee beats them. I think Miami is going to, um, entice a lot of people cause they beat them last year because of how well Butler's playing. But Milwaukee is just better. The, the drew having him having him to throw at Hero. Hero's been hot lately. And then on top of it, like the P.J. Tucker piece who they had on Hero the other
Starting point is 01:24:14 day when they were messing around in that game recently, which didn't really have big stakes for Miami. But one of the things I like with Milwaukee in this series, that they're malleable, right? They could play Tucker in a shooter with,
Starting point is 01:24:29 I'm saying with Giannis, Drew, and Middleton. They could play Tucker in a shooter. They could play Lopez and Tucker and go bigger. Or they could play Lopez in a shooter. But they can kind of go with whatever. And I just think those Ariza-Iguodala minutes are going to sink Miami. It's too many minutes with those guys.
Starting point is 01:24:45 I think both of them at this point, they're just kind of at a different stage of their career. And they're relying on them for, you know, 45, 50 minutes a game. I don't like it for Miami. Miami's won 11 of 15. But when you look at their April 1st on splits,
Starting point is 01:25:03 they're really good on offense. They're actually bad on defense. Like it's just how they compare to the rest of the league during that stretch is a lot lower than I thought. And let me just make sure and double check it again. And that I don't know. You're right. Those are the right numbers.
Starting point is 01:25:16 Yeah. I mean, they're 24th in the league. I mean, they're down there. We're San Antonio, Minnesota, Cleveland,
Starting point is 01:25:20 Orlando. And honestly, they're not that far off, like all those bad teams. And sometimes you can say like, Hey, we're 24th, but then the drop down to not that far off. All those bad teams, and sometimes you can say, hey, we're 24th, but then the drop down to 25th is significant. It's not. But the amount of...
Starting point is 01:25:32 Let me put it this way. Everybody's going to be on Miami on this one. Everyone. And if Milwaukee were to lose to them in the first round, they may have to relegate the Bucs. It would be the... It'll be humiliating, and it'll be unfair is what I'm saying,
Starting point is 01:25:52 but the humiliation factor for Bucs as a franchise... I mean, fans are going to want to hear this, but if they were to lose to them again this time in the first round, it's going to be... Just prepare yourself for it because it's going to be... Just prepare yourself for it. If you go through all the 16
Starting point is 01:26:08 playoff teams, Milwaukee losing in round one is the most devastating scenario to any of the 16. Brooklyn can do the whole, look, we never had our guys. Next year, we'll be ready. Philly could do...
Starting point is 01:26:24 Give me this you think brooklyn losing to the wizards could still be better than milwaukee the realistic ones we're crossing off philly and brooklyn they're not losing but i so out of the other ones okay any realistic any possible because it is a possibility if miami were to beat them we can't sit here and go i never saw never saw that coming. But no, they could. They did it last year, and Milwaukee could just show up. Exactly. Picking Milwaukee is not writing off Miami in this case.
Starting point is 01:26:52 But the... And imagine, like, this is a national perspective. Can you imagine the local perspective on that? Like, coming in after a weekend elimination, you're doing a talk show in Milwaukee on Monday, and you're like, okay, you know, Giannis won't be allowed to be on any top five lists.
Starting point is 01:27:10 If Utah lost to the eighth seed, they would, they would hit a similar inflection point where it'd be like, all right, what are we doing? What's going on with this team? You just won the one seed. It mattered. Not at all. And what are you going to do now? And I think with Milwaukee, the scary thing for them is they really don't have any outs other than trading Middleton. Who's way better than he gets credit for. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:27:34 When I really lock into watching Middleton, I go, he's terrific. He's terrific. Milwaukee's going to beat Miami. And I have no idea who's going to win Atlanta next. All right. We're wrapping up part one. Part two. So here's the thing.
Starting point is 01:27:48 It is 4.30 on Pacific time now. Wrapping up. We're going to come back at some point tonight after these West games. And we'll do a shorter pod for part two, just breaking down the West based on what the seeds are. And then we'll do all NBA too, because I'm going to make my final picks.
Starting point is 01:28:05 And then we can, can you think for the next four hours who I should do for the four spot and the five spot and MVP? You already said Chris Paul for four. And then who for five? Randall? I don't know.
Starting point is 01:28:18 Then it seems ridiculous to leave Giannis off. You're right. I mean, sometimes there's just not enough spots for worthy candidates, but it doesn't mean it's personal. Because whoever it is. What about Westbrook? What about Westbrook? Historic year? 88% of an
Starting point is 01:28:32 MVP season. I just have a problem with Giannis winning two straight, having 94% as good of a season in year three. He's not even top five. He's not even top five. I think I'd go Steph, Giannis, Paul. of a season in year three. And he's like, he's out. He's not even top five. He's not even top five. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:28:48 I think I can go Steph, Giannis, Paul. Steph, Paul, Giannis. Okay. All right. We'll see you in a few hours. All right. That's it for part one of the two-part Sunday Night BS podcast. Get ready for part two.
Starting point is 01:29:00 We'll be taping it as soon as we know what the Western Conference matchups are. It'll be a little shorter than this one was, but we will break down all the West matchups and also I will give my
Starting point is 01:29:10 All-NBA picks as well. So, should be up, I don't know, midnight PT, something like that. Two-parter.
Starting point is 01:29:18 Don't forget about the Goodfellas rewatchables as well. That is coming on Monday. So, there you go. See you for part two in a few hours. On the wayside On the first of our lives
Starting point is 01:29:45 I don't have to ever forget

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