The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 2: An NBA All-Star Snapshot, Washington’s Pain, Round 1 Picks, and a Belichick Story With Joe House

Episode Date: January 12, 2024

In the second part of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss NBA blowouts, showcasing more exciting teams nationally, preliminary All-Star ballots, the sad Wizards, the greatest candy bars, and more (2:00). Then, Bill makes the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL wild-card weekend (44:39). Finally, in honor of Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots parting ways, Bill shares some final thoughts on Belichick's career and reads an excerpt from his 2015 Grantland article after Super Bowl XLIX (49:06). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Joe House Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, the Ringer NBA group chat guys, Waz, Mahoney, Barrier, and special guest J. Kyle Mann, they're all headed to Indianapolis for NBA All-Star Weekend. Join them downtown February 17th for a Saturday afternoon live show at 2 p.m. before NBA All-Star Saturday night. Tickets available right now at hifiindy.com. That is h-i-f-i-indy.com.

It's the Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way, if you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch a pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs, the next drive. They have so much stuff. It's crazy. The app is safe and secure and easy to use. And when you win,

you'll get paid instantly. Plus look out for FanDuel Squares this season. Here's what you have to do. Visit fanduel.com slash BS to download America's number one sports book. The ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive

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It's on Monday. It's on prime. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. If you missed part one of this podcast, which we were not expecting to break into two parts, but then Bill Belichick, the greatest NFL coach of all time, steps down on a Thursday morning and guess what? We had to do a two-part podcast. Michael Lombardi and Peter Schrager were on part one. We talked about Belichick. We talked about all kinds of coaching stuff and did a deep, deep, deep, deep dive of the round one playoff game.

So in part two of this podcast that you're about to hear, my buddy Joe House is in town because we're filming Ringer Wiseguys for FanDuel TV on Saturday and Sunday, which is the pregame playoff gambling show that I've always wanted to watch for the last, I don't know how many years, and now we're going to be able to do it at 11 a.m. on FanDuel TV on Saturday and on Sunday.

Cannot wait for that one. And House is going to come on. We're going to talk basketball. And he'll give us his favorite pick for round one. I don't want to spoil Wiseguy's too much. Then after that, million-dollar picks for round one, my eternal quest to go undefeated for the playoffs. And then last but not least, I wanted to read something I wrote about Belichick once upon a it's a little after nine o'clock thursday night joe house is here because we're taping Ringer Wiseguys all weekend for FanDuel TV. We had a Suns-Lakers game tonight. And we thought, oh, this will be fun. We'll talk a little NBA.

What did we see in Suns-Lakers? What did we see in Celtics-Bucks? Blowouts galore. Blowouts everywhere. Really depressing. Do your thing about what you want the NBA to do. Well, I will, but I want to start off with a caution. Because the last time that you and I together, just chopping it up, talking NBA, it was about six months ago.

And I asked you a question about Bradley bradley beal and business dealings and then you caused an international incident uh that included paparazzi stalking you in your parking garage i forgot about that the grifters let's try not to do that again or if you enjoyed it we could try and do that thank god we cut out the thing that you said it might have caused a third world like a third universe there would have been it was international and domestic they were victims all over the place but editing by kyle and saruti and that we're gonna we're gonna do try and do better i guess but yes uh here is my my view of the world as it relates to the NBA now. And it fits the overall theme of the season,

which is this is a transition moment in the league. Kevin Durant is old, and LeBron James is old, and Steph Curry is old. Old stars, but old. Yes, still the most important stars. But we're transitioning. And so I want to see other teams. I don't want to see the Warriors anymore.

Like tired of the Warriors. You're done. You're done. Yeah, I don't need to see. So you needed the Warriors-Pelicans on ABC last night. It wasn't too exciting for you. Well, it delivered exactly what I expected. The Warriors can't compete with the Pelicans,

and they didn't compete with them. Well, the Warriors, Suns, and Lakers are still, I think, under 500 combined as we're heading toward the 40-game they didn't compete with them. Well, the Warriors, Suns, and Lakers are still, I think, under 500 combined as we're heading toward the 40 game mark. I'm with you. They targeted all these teams and they're like, people are going to love to see the stars and they're all going to be contenders or fringe contenders.

They should audible and flex. Yes. So the teams, we want more Oklahoma City, right? They've been the league pass MVPs. Absolutely. More Minnesota. Love Minnesota. Love to see them. Like last night, they had

Golden State New Orleans on ABC. Minnesota-Boston, which was one of the best games of the year, is just on league pass. Right. Wherever Roku, Apple, wherever you get it. Why didn't they flip those? Why didn't they use common sense and say, what's a better game?

Look, you know the NBA better than I do. So OKC, who else? You like New York at home? I love this version of the Knicks post-trade with OG because you can tell these games at Madison Square Garden, the fan base there,

they love this Knicks team and OG's perfect, seamless fit. And precious. And you've done a nice job of emphasizing how important the precious part is. Yes. They love this team and it's palpable and it's great.

And that's a brand. Let me ask you this. Well, there's one more team, but let's not forget the fourth team that needs to be on TV more. But go ahead, ask me, and then we'll come back to it. I like to see the Pacers more,

but who else? The Clippers. Oh, yeah, the Clippers. Amazing. The Clippers are now starting to get, is that the best team in the West, Buzz? They have the three best players. This could end up being

one of my biggest losses in a while. I've had a lot of wins. I've had some losses. And if the Clippers Celtics, not only would that finals break my brain and I would have my dad's season tickets and my own season tickets, I would just be able to go to every game. But just the concept of those two teams playing in the finals is fucking

nuts. Kawhi against the Celtics. They could have traded Jalen Brown and an extra pick for him, what, six years, five years ago? Harden. Boston kind of has had his number. The Clippers just in the finals. They've never

made a finals house. I'm shaking my head because... Yeah, because somebody will get hurt and Harden will choke in the playoffs. Yeah, I can't tell if this is a bit by you where you're like... They're 21-6 in their last 27 and they're just beating everybody. I get it. Look, we were at this point right about this time

last year with the Pelicans. The Pelicans were the best team in the NBA. They had the best record. Yeah, but the records were low and it was weird. It was kind of a free-for-all. My thing is if you can play 30 games and go like 24 This is, my thing is, if you can play 30 games and go like 24 and six, 23 and seven,

you're probably legit. Like, that's a pretty long stretch. This is the version of the Clippers that the Clippers imagined they might be. Now,

they didn't, a year ago, have in mind James Harden being part of this. Yeah. But they did imagine this chemistry. Last year, it ended up being a full season

of a chemistry experiment because they couldn't get healthy at the same time. They shuffled in rotation players, shuffled out rotation players. Right. Finally landed on this. They did the load management thing just to the bitter end,

to the chagrin of everybody. I mean, Steve Ballmer, pretty good business guy, bought low. Bought low on Harden. Well, listen, it better work this year. They have no picks until 2052 and they're going to pay like a hundred billion bucks in luxury tax, maybe more. I think you can afford it. And then they, you know, listen, I've lived here a while. I've been involved in the Clippers thing pretty closely, dating back to San Diego in just 40 years of whatever the hell,

45 years of whatever the hell it's been. Kawhi plays just fantastic for a month. And even during that month, disappeared for four games for some injury management, came back. He's looked awesome. He's been one of the eight best players in the league. And they give him the extension. And it's like, would you have done this two months ago? No. But now he looks good. You're like, all right, here's the extension. If this was any other team,

I'd be like, that makes sense. New stadium, big city, you have the money. Why not? But because it's the Clippers, it feels like the dot, dot, dot. Oh, that's not nice. Oh, remember they were doing so well and then they gave Kawhi the extension. That's not nice.

And then two days later, James Harden was crossing the street and a black cat walked in front of him. See, I knew it. And then there was a pile, like,

it's the Clippers. Terrible things happen to them. It's true. It's true. They had Sean Livingston, who is basically going to be discount magic johnson or at least the halliburton of the 2000s yes and plants his knee and it explodes in 90 places right they had blake griffin as he hadn't even been a rookie yet

and he and he was out for the year it's just it's 45 years of this so when they gave quite the extension i was like oh no can you wait it like a month? It could still work. You like this Clippers team. I can tell. Well, because of the flexibility and my mind's eye, when you see vintage Kawhi like that, it feels like such a precious thing, such a rare thing. We've been given this special treat. We've been given this hundred grand bar that I didn't know was still fresh. We're going to talk about that later. Top seven guys in the league this year.

I did my ringer. We did the top hundred. I gave my list. Yes. My top seven was Jokic, Giannis, Embiid, who just misses games here and there in a way. I know it's fine. Luka, four.

Yeah. Shea, five. Great. Curry, six. Okay. Tatum, seven. And then it's a drop-off, and I had Durant, Halliburton, Booker, Butler, LeBron, Bam, Davis, Kawhi, 15.

This was two weeks ago. Even if I had to do, and I mailed that list in probably 10 days ago. I might have Kawhi at eight now. Now, I don't know if you have to factor in reliability, the fact that I don't know if he's going to play 60 games to show all this stuff, but his ceiling of what he can do,

it might be higher than Duran at this point. Is there any way for them to take Paul George and Kawhi, put them in bubble wrap and then save, right, save till April. Just let those guys go, you know, send them away. Send them to Zee Wataneho. Let them go enjoy some time together on the beach and then bring them back when the games really matter.

I think James Harden with this cast, they could be a little sub 500. They're enough above 500 that they're... Yeah, but you want one of those top three seeds so you can be in LA and have Kawhi near his rehabilitation center, whatever he's doing, to have the spring that he has. Doc made a good point about this trade. And I heard this theory when they made it,

but I was just like, it's James Harden. I feel like he's on the other side of the mountain, but just that he is durable. And then if you can just get the other two to play 50% together, and then you're getting 25% and you always have two. It's a great point. But James had to, you know, be as good as he's been playing.

I got to say, he moves the ball around. This is the most fun I've ever had watching James Harden. He doesn't hog the ball. Like there's no heliocentric stuff. The ball just moves. The only thing that I'm sort of like, he was pretty great last year. Yeah, until March.

Until the All-Star game. Yeah, until March. He was left off the All-Star team. Yeah. He didn't like that. And then he let everybody know how he didn't like it. Well, we're going to talk All-Stars because I have to come up with a list.

And this is not here are my all-star picks. We're just trying to lay out what the all-star team looks like in both conferences. And the West is harder than the East. And this is, listen, very preliminary research. I haven't researched games played. There's all kinds of advanced stats I haven't looked at. This is just blink test. Let's make a list.

What do we got? So don't get mad at us. This is just House and I watching the Super Bowl. We're watching the Super Boring Laker game saying we have to come up with another topic since obviously Laker Suns isn't going to work. And starters, we came up with Jokic, AD, Kawhi,

Luka, and SGA. You feel good about that? It feels pretty unimpeachable. I don't know if Kawhi's played enough games, but I feel like somebody has to be recognized on that Clipper team because they've been so impactful. And for, I think the Clippers themselves would say Kawhi is the accelerant. He's the reason.

Yeah, and the ceiling of what he's doing. Now, Durant would have a case for that Kawhi is the accelerant. He's the reason. Yeah, and the ceiling of what he's doing. Now, Durant would have a case for that Kawhi spot, and then the other controversial thing there would be AD getting the starter spot over LeBron, but AD has been the best Laker this year. He's been the best two-way. This is the best

AD's ever played. He has really filled in a lot of blanks. I know they're below 500 team, but if he had even missed five, six games, they would be dead in the water. And I just think he's been better than LeBron this season. Okay. You agree or disagree? I'm fine with that. LeBron's 39.

It's not a knock on LeBron. Forwards, I have LeBron and Durant bolded. And then Markanen, Towns, Paul George, who's having a really good year. Another guy. It's like 24, 6, and 6. He's hosting a podcast.

He's playing defense, doing it all. And Brandon Ingram, not in bold. Centers, I have Gobert in bold. And then there's one more spot for Shengun, Chet, Sabonis, or Triple J. We'll go back to that. And then guards, I have Curry, Fox, and Edwards and Bold, which leaves out Bain, Booker, Harden, and Murray. Wow.

Now we have another week or so before I have to hand these in. Yes. So of the bolded ones, Curry, Fox, Edwards, LeBron, Durant go bare. One spot left for center between Shengun, Chet, and Sabonis, basically. Sabonis is eighth in the league in assists and first in rebounds, and he's shooting 20 points a game. I just can't totally get there with two Kings house. I understand. So to me, it's Shengun or Chet. And Shengun basically lifting a 500 Rockets team. Or Chet, OKC's the best team in the West. And Chet is like 17 and 8.

He's a 50, 40, 80 guy. And he's like third in the league in blocks. And he's been really durable. And he's been clutch at the end of these games. And it's a tough call. Who do you have? I like Shengun over chet blink test right now i think i'm with you only because um chet is properly going to win rookie of the year

he absolutely deserves it is he's been what what a revelation yeah he is exactly what oklahoma city needed they still need one more piece but he like did they know that they had this waiting this was the highest upside of what they ever could have dreamed of for year one. It's so true. It's like they needed rim protection. They needed a stretch five, basically. They needed a competitive dude who wasn't scared at the end of games, who couldn't get overpowered by other centers.

He checked every box. He mother Fs everybody. I love it. I mean, he does not physically doing that, but I mean, in terms of his attitude, it's unbelievable. Okay. East. East is a little harder

with the starters. Embiid, Giannis, and Tatum is easy, and Halliburton's easy. And that fifth spot could go to Brunson. It could go to Mitchell. It could go to Maxie. And I think we both agree it's Brunsonson I think it's Brunson there's a Mitchell Case building

that could get even better a week from now because they've won four straight, they haven't had Garland they've had a Mobley, hit 45 in the France game he might be able to grab that spot, it's close but I love what Brunson's doing in the Knicks well he is the Knicks

and you know getting them up to that moment where they made that trade, he was the one. He was the force. And he helped cover over the slow start that Randall had. So for the Knicks to be where they are right now, he's the reason, and I think he deserves the starting spot. Well, and the best center of all time,

Isaiah Hartenstein. Didn't have him as a starter. I gave Embiid the edge over Isaiah Hartenstein. Guards. I have Mitchell, Maxey, and Trae Young in bold. And then Dame and Derek White on the outside. We'll go back to that. Trae doesn't have to be in bold, but I had them in bold.

I had for forwards Randall and Jalen Brown in bold. Scottie and Butler on the perimeter. Butler doesn't play enough games. Scottie's team stinks. Centers, I have Bam and Palo in bold, and then Porzingis lingering behind them. And Kobe White, maybe one more week of him can at least get a non-bolt.

Whoa, okay. Honorable mention. The big one is, the big arguments are, does Trey deserve to be in the all-star team when he doesn't play defense and his team is dramatically underachieved, but he puts up big stats? And then who is the second Boston all-star?

I would have said Derek White up until about 10 days ago. I just love how Jalen's playing. And I think he's the third best forward in the East. I actually have him ahead of Randall. To me, it's Giannis and Tatum. And then if you said, who's the third best forward in the East for regular season? Because Jimmy Butler would be above him in a normal list. But I think Jalen's been third. And I don't think there should be three Celtics. Okay. Yeah, I just think that even I find that absurd.

So I have Jalen and I have White on the outside, and it kills me, but there's too many good guards. Any thoughts? No, I mean, I think that's right. White, who would you have Derek White jump over if he was going to make it? Well, you would go Dame, who's been pretty spotty, and has been a defensive lead.

The defensive metrics on him are horrible, and he had a little nine-game swoon there. But Dame versus White, who's been more valuable, it's at least an argument. And then White versus Trey, or Dame versus Trey, just like, hey, these guys are on winning teams. Trey, you're not on a winning team, and you don't deserve to be in the All-Star game.

But Trey's stats are massive. I mean, he's like 29 and 11. So it's wide open. Maxie, to me, is in bold and not arguable. Well, I didn't even consider him as somebody that we needed to debate. So it's Trey, Dame, and White probably

for one more spot. I don't think Barnes has enough, and Butler's not playing enough games. And then there's a Porzingis case if you want to make Porzingis over Jalen as the second Celtic. But to me, Paolo's in bold, especially thezingis over Jalen as the second Celtic. But to me, Paolo's in bold, especially the way he's gotten better as the year went on.

Paolo. Paolo. He looks bigger. He's kind of big-boying some of these games. This is, again, another very, very young guy who looks like the best possible version is kind of in our sight. We could see.

And he, you know, we'll tip our cap to Franz and tip our cap to Suggs. And the whole energy of that Magic team is tremendous. But Paolo is the big boy. So I had Suggs not in bold and behind Derek White, but just needs to be mentioned. He's my personal favorite non-All-Star MVP. Sure. There's been some great

just glue guy, awesome fun bench guys and he's been one of them. Hartenstein's been one of them. Yeah. There's been a few. There's a lot of fun guys. Nas Reid, another monster off the bench year from him. Anyway, so I think that's a snapshot, but all this stuff is in flux.

It feels like four of the starters are locked in in the East, and probably three of the starters are locked in in the West. The AD Kawhi spots, who knows? That could just be LeBron and Durant. Sure. Yep. Oh, yeah. I mean, with the way the voting's going to go.

I just don't. The LeBron thing, I know he's played a lot of games. I know his stats look like an old LeBron season. But the fact that they're 24th in offensive rating and he doesn't really play defense remotely like he did 10 years ago. I just think that has to matter. The 24th in offensive rating, that's on him. They're running the offense through him

and it's not a good offense. It's not a good offense. It's like, well, they don't have shooters. Well, then come up with another plan.

Yeah, you don't have shooters. Maybe don't run an offense that's built on people making open shots. All right, that's our check-in.

We're going to take a break. We're going to talk about the Wizards and candy bars and your favorite football pick for this weekend. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too.

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of a Mount Suckmore with the Pistons and the Spurs and the Blazers. We have never had four awful teams at the same time like this. Scoot Henderson, who I still like, and I'll buy your Scoot stock if you don't want it. Scoot Henderson was a minus 56 tonight in the 62-point loss. We have right now Portland's 10- 27. San Antonio is six and 30. Washington is

six and 31 and Detroit's three and 35. Charlotte is eight and 27, but LaMelo's coming back and they'll at least start playing better. And you for some reason- I need them to play way better. You for some reason enjoy watching this Wizards team. Do you, do you like hate yourself? Like, what are your reasons? Well, I feel like if I keep watching, something might change. And, you know, I have to tell you, I'm dismayed by this Wizards team.

And it's not just because, you know, I, at the beginning of the season, imagined a team that was going to lose most of their games, but at least compete. This iteration, they're not capable of competing. They can't play any defense whatsoever. They have one player on the entire roster.

They have two because DeLon Wright can play and he and and and he's definitely you know you if you look at the advanced metrics for him a lot of team a lot of contenders hoping that he's gonna be available yeah he'll be a great role player cool bolly also has a tremendous defensive ceiling he's not there yet gafford is the only guy who can really he's the only rim protection i I like Kispert. Kispert is, is going to get a modest extension.

He deserves it. Another guy who, uh, you know, as a, as a role guy, if he's your eighth guy. Yeah. Great.

But I could see him on a contender as an eighth or ninth guy. Sure. Yeah. Right. Um, I looked up, I was looking up four man rotations, trying to figure out the best ones. And I looked at the bottom and Kuzma was in the four worst four-man rotations in the entire league. One of them was minus 15 per 100 possessions. The next one was like minus 12.5. No matter who you put Kuzma or Poole with, the lineup's going to be bad, basically.

Well, I've been watching it. I'm here to tell you, yes, that's exactly right. So they would have been better off if they just took Chris Paul in that Phoenix trade. Much better off. They didn't take Jordan Poole. Much better off, yes. Did we like the Poole trade when they made it?

Because I can't remember if we did. I want to ask you this. Is it possible that Golden State perpetrated an all-time rope-a-dope? Did they overpay Poole deliberately because they understood that... That there were stupid

teams out there that would trade for him? Yes, because there was never a scenario under which they were going to get anything of any value for him if they didn't, on their own end, do their own part in terms of propping him up and making him seem valuable counter he was one of the biggest differences in game four five six of the finals and killed my team and got punched in the face by draymond

and has never been the same since like that's just factual. He's never been the same as a basketball player since that punch. Well, the thing I'm more interested in is the contribution he made to that Warriors team in those finals and dissecting that and trying to understand the role that he played. He was irrational confidence. How they defined the role for him.

Jordan Clarkson on Utah right now just coming in and hitting shots and getting out of there. He would define the role for him. Jordan Clarkson on Utah right now just coming in and hitting shots and getting out of there. He would heat up in 10 minutes. I'm here to tell you, I've never seen a player as talented as Jordan Poole with as low of a hoops IQ. And you know how long I've been watching basketball.

He is clueless. He can't be on the floor. They should take him out of games with six minutes left in the fourth quarter. So maybe that was the secret sauce. Just never play him in a close game. And maybe, you know, I'm not going back and looking at their lineups inside the Warriors lineups in that title year. I'm not going to go back and do that, but you know. It's pretty tough that you had all of these top 10 picks and all these years

later, you're still really bad, but you might not even be the worst team in the league. And Kula Bali is really the only one that would ever have a chance. I think of anyone on your roster to make an all-star team. And I'm not even saying that will happen. I'm just like, at least talent wise,

it's at least like you can't cross it off. I totally agree. You're right. Lots of swings and misses. Do you think you would have done a better job than any Wizards, Tommy Shepard? Ernie Grunfeld, Tommy Shepard? Yeah.

I don't know. You wouldn't have done worse. There were definitely guys that I preferred to, like, you know, the year they took Denny Avdia. Yeah. The year they took Rui. Halliburton was, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. There are guys that came after, you know, each of those years.

Well, the funny thing is you might not even get like a top four pick. It's just. Unless Lomelo gets gone. Yeah. Because you have the Blazers who lose by 28 to the Knicks and then follow that up by losing by 62 to the Thunder. They lost by 90 points in two games. That's got to be a record.

I don't even know. Does it matter? Is this upcoming draft? Who is the transcendent talent in this upcoming draft? No, I was talking about, I told Kyle Mann and Tate, and I was texting with them in KOC tonight. And I was saying, because the way they're talking about this draft, you know, because Isaiah Collier got hurt and he's out for four to six weeks.

And we're like, did he get hurt? Because it's actually a better business move to be like, I'm hurt. Like do the Rodney Ditchfield. Ooh, my arm. I think it's broken. But I was saying, this feels like the 2013 draft to me. That was the first one I did for ESPN with Jalen when it was like Anthony Bennett went first,

Old Depot was second, New Orleans Noel, Alex Lin. Wow. It's just, and you're trying to talk yourself into these guys that don't have it. And then what happens in that draft? The best guys end up being Old Depot-Buff for a couple of years. CJ McCollum was Patriot League. Yeah.

And Giannis, who is a six foot nine Greek guy playing against, you know, scrubs in Greece. This would be the three best. Yeah, this would be the year where I would be taking a flyer on an international player. Right.

Hands down. Yeah. Or an alien. Maybe one of the aliens that landed in Miami a couple weeks ago. Did you follow that story? I just saw it. Best story of the year.

Like 600 cops cars. And like weird things flashing in the sky. The aliens are coming, it feels like. Maybe they're here. Let's bring in Aaron Rodgers. Aaron, what do you see with the aliens? Aaron, no. Who do you think with the aliens? Aaron, no. Who do you think is the worst team?

It's you? No. Detroit is worse. What do you mean? Who's the worst team? Detroit? Now that they have Bogdanovich, then Cade went out. Cade and Bogdanovich is at least more professional in the last five minutes than anything you have.

Is it? Yeah, I think it is. Where's the proof? I think it is. All right. Greatest candy bars. You came over tonight. We were going to order dessert.

We were going to order pies on Postmates, but we didn't have enough time because we were recording. It's too late. And I was like, I have some candy bars. And my wife all this candy from halloween and just she overbought i don't know she was at costco i think she lost her mind she made a bad god bless her and we just have a lot of candy in our house including 100 grand bars and i was saying to you these are my single favorite candy bars and you agreed i agree. But I don't feel like that's a consensus opinion. It's kind of the Shea Gilgis Alexander of candy bars. Oh,

nobody would mention SGA on the par with Yoka, like the average person in Kansas city, just be like, Hey, who do you look in the NBA? They wouldn't be like SGA, but the a hundred gram bar, which I think most people like really love. If you pull one out, people are like, whoa, they're going to eat it, but doesn't get the reputation as the goat of candy bars, which for me it is. I wonder what is the goat of candy bars right now? What do you think the answer to that is? It kind of depends on the human, right? Yeah.

So what's your favorite candy bar? 100 gram bar. All right. That's mine too. Let's go back and forth. My second favorite is Caramello, which were kind of like giant Rolos. Yes. Wonderful.

I like Twix. I really like Twix. All right. Twix was my number four. My number three was the Big Cat, which is the giant Kit Kat bars they made. You had never had one. I never had one. I introduced it to you today.

I am. I'm behind on my candy innovation. I didn't know about the big cat. So Kit Kat, they had these small things, the ones we love. Everyone loves Kit Kats. And at some point, probably in a meeting, somebody had to come up with that idea.

And they were like, what if we just made bigger Kit Kats, thicker ones? Like almost like brick, like a brick cat. And they're like what if we just made bigger kit kats thicker ones like almost like brick like a brick cat and they're like what and then they workshopped it and it's delicious they turned out great because good job by them it's a it's a it's a full mouthful yeah you're not cheap you're not getting cheated and it's like three bricks so it's like you get three people you just get one. I had Twix for, what was your number three? The Big Cat?

Well, I mean, I just had the Big Cat, but I love the Big Cat. It's pretty amazing. Oh, you like Crackle was your number three. I do like Crackle. Explain Crackle. Well, it's a flatter, thinner, it's like a Rice Krispie chocolate kind of thing. That's pretty good. Anytime the words Rice Krispie are involved in a candy, I'm thing. That's, that's pretty good. Anytime the words rice crispy are involved in a candy. I'm in like rice crispy. Have you ever had a rice crispy treat and said to

yourself, Oh no, I don't know if I want to eat this rice crispy treat. Come on. Who are you talking to? Of course. Do you believe in putting chocolate and rice crispy treats or no? Uh, I'm fine with it. They'll sneak the M&Ms in. I'm fine. I'm fine with it. Some people will put the end, they'll sneak the M&Ms in. I'm fine with it. Like you can't ruin the essence of the Rice Krispie Treat. It's still going to come through. It's not really an answer.

We both really like Hershey bars, just the old school. Yeah, old school. What's wrong with that? What kind of a s'more guy are you? Eh. One of the things I do that really annoys my wife is homemade s'mores, like lazy s'mores.

Which is what? Which basically, like, take a graham cracker, just put a marshmallow, take a Hershey thing, and just squeeze it together and eat it raw. You raw dog it. What's that? I bet that has a name. she's like, that's not a s'more. That's some crazy sandwich. I'm like, that's fine.

To me, it's a s'more. I don't need to heat this up to feel like I'm eating a s'more. Oh, God. I don't want to go anywhere with the raw dog part of it, but man, there's a name for that. There's definitely a name for that. Raw dog s'mores. Right. And then I don't think any, either of us are that excited about Baby Ruth bars.

They're fine. I had one tonight. I do like stinkers, but stinkers, to me, peanuts and candy. If I'm doing peanuts, I'm probably leaning toward M&M's, like the M&M peanuts. Those are my absolute favorites.

I also love Reese's. I mean, I love the peanut also love Reese's. I mean, I love the peanut butter cup Reese's. The peanut butter, I don't like. It sticks to my throat. And it's very rich. Do you consider M&M's

a candy bar? No, it's not a candy bar. It's a candy. Yeah. It's not a candy bar. I mean, you could make the case.

It's just a little mini circle candy bars. You can't. Can't make that case. So it's in candy. Like who else is in the M&M's just a little mini circle candy bars. You can't, can't make that case. So it's in candy. Like who else is in the M&M's phylum? Hershey Kisses? No,

those are different. Those are like little chocolate bites. They're, they're like Skittles. They're chocolate Skittles. So who lives with M&M's? Who lives in their, who lives in their phylum?

Who are they competing against? Starburst? You need to have a handful. No, Starburst, you can't have a handful. It's handful candies, though. It's handful candies. That's like its own thing. Skittles?

M&Ms? M&Ms? Starbursts? Starbursts are not handful candies. They're all individually wrapped Starbursts are. So are Hershey Kisses. Right. They're in their

own class what about those little mini pieces rollo's rollo's belong with hershey's kisses so individually wrapped that's like its own file yeah that's its own yes its own genus so when you're in a movie theater what do you get popcorn do you get candy with it or no uh i will get um the malt balls the popcorn yeah the popcorn is sweet sweet sweet sweet i like sprite at the movie theater for some reason that's my drinking choice it feels like it goes it's like lighter it goes easier with popcorn and then i eat some of the chocolate malt balls i love fountain coke and fountain sprite and all fountain soda at at a movie theater for some some reason, it just tastes better

than if you just bought it in a bottle. It's true. I always feel like at basketball games, they always make you like take the bottles and it's never the same. No, no, no, no, no. It's like a nice fountain soda. So much better. Ben and I were at Jimmy John's last Sunday and we did on the ride home and he ordered a large fountain soda and I didn't order one. I was so jealous of it. It had like a lot of ice in it. You got like a diet, Dr. Pepper fountain soda. Um, I never get enough credit. A lot of people don't know this. I invented M&Ms in the popcorn. Nobody's ever done that before. As far as I know, I invented it. I was in Massachusetts. I was just going to say, was this something, were you doing that, uh, at Worcester? What was the movie theater in Worcester? The Adonis Theater? The Adonis. Was there popcorn with

M&Ms in that experience? I told that story on the rewatchables recently about us at the Adonis Theater. And that guy came in and said in a row, pulled his pants down. I was not there. I heard about the story when you came back. You shouldn't say you were there. It's like Roger Clemens when he got 20 strikeouts. I heard the aftertale. I did not want to be there. I did not want to witness that. But you should say years later that you were there. I was there. I saw it.

It's like, I was there at Michael Jordan's 63-point game. Yeah, no, I invented M&M's and popcorn. A lot of people don't know. Okay. Prove me wrong. Who invented it? So dumb. Early 90s.

It was like, man, this would taste delicious. What's your favorite football pick this weekend? I don't want to do the cliche thing and I'm going to go on the ringer wise guys and try and make an impassioned case. I honestly think the Miami dolphins are going to give the chiefs a good game. All right, let's hear it. Well, in the first place, if you subscribe to the idea that this weather is going to have a dramatic impact on game script, then you want to look at which of these two teams has the ability to run the ball because you're not going to be able to throw the ball. The receivers are going to be compromised. Kansas City already has the most compromised receiver core in the

NFL. They have guys that can't catch the ball when it's perfect weather. They said freezing cold weather is much better for bad hands. But the particular aspect of the matchup that if you're looking at it this way, you want the points

with this Miami thing. I'm not saying take Miami on the money line. I'm saying give me the four. It's all the way up to four and a half on Fandle right now. So'm not saying take Miami on the money line. I'm saying give me the four. It's all the way up to four and a half on Fandu right now. So why not tease it to 10 and a half? You don't love that? I don't need to get exotic. I'm doing Chiefs money line.

And I did Chiefs money line for million dollar picks, spoiler alert, with the adjusted under 51 and a half. So I think it's going to- And that's basically even up. Yeah, because I think it's going to be a low scoring game, which is why you- It has to be. There's two long drives both ways,

and 12 plays, 14 plays. So the two best running backs in the NFL by DVOA are Devin Achan and Raheem Ostert. Kansas City, 27th in DVOA in rush defense. So I did this with Schrager. I listed all the teams that ran for like 100 plus on them the last 10 weeks. It's like 8 of 10, including Vegas twice.

Including Vegas. And that's the other thing. The mystique of Arrowhead, the Chiefs are just 4-4 at home this season. It's a down year for the Chiefs. I love all those stats. I just couldn't get past Tua in freezing cold weather

with a shaky offensive line that has not traveled that well. And then a defense that's not the same. The other aspect to this, A-Chain didn't play in the game in Germany. And that was a defensive battle. That was a ground game. So your scenario here is if you like the Dolphins, you like A-Chain to rush for like 140 yards.

Right. I mean, you know. 100 yards. Right. And for him and Mostert to together get 35 carries. Between 35 and 40 carries. We're watching a lot of these games together this weekend. The first time Tua has a Tua freezing cold weather play,

I just can't wait. I might turn the camera on and videotape you. The interesting thing to me is it is indisputable that Miami has more capacity for explosive plays. Yeah. How will Mike McDaniel get Tyreek the ball so that it doesn't require Tua throwing it 25 yards down the field, right?

Or how about the part where Tua throws the ball and he just gets annihilated? We're not. Which seems to happen like four times a game. We're not doing that this game. Tua, can you not get Tyreek

annihilated every quarter? It's exactly the reason why Chase Claypool was the guy running the route on the pass that Tua threw and got intercepted because Tyreek had to come out of the game.

So Miami's really your favorite? Miami four and a half is your favorite bet? My favorite non-chalk bet. Your favorite zag? Yes. I like Green Bay getting the seven and a half. I like the Rams on the money line. I absolutely

love the Steelers. it's too many points um if this weather's going to be bad and the total's low but all those are pretty conventional picks i think a lot of smart folks are saying those picks yeah well i'm about to say a lot of them in million dollar picks in one second before we go who do you want for washington to take over the team and are you part of the 10person committee that's looking for a new coach? They didn't ask me. Why didn't they ask you? Well, I think in the first place, they probably...

I was going to make a joke about my picks this year, except for on ESPN, I finished inside the top 800 of hundreds of thousands of people. In our picks poll, you were like 50 games over 500 or something. Yes, so I'm not going to make fun. Thank you.

I went 14 and four on double downs this year. Why didn't the committee know this? They should have added you. You would have been better than Bob Myers. He's a fucking basketball guy. Why is Bob Myers on a coach committee for the NFL? Well, I mean, if Magic and Josh Harris, you know, those are NBA guys. Yeah, you already have an NBA guy in Magic.

You need Bob Myers? Adam Peters and Mike Grable would be unbelievable. God, that would be good. We have more money. How about the fact that your team's drafting right in front of me and we're fighting for the same coach as GM? This is the first time we've

ever battled in football since I've known you. I want to trade the draft pick. When we were in college, the Redskins were great and my team was dog shit. And then somehow we reversed roles when we hit the 21st century. Yeah. 25 years, my team is bad. Yeah. Now the legacy, the best 21st century Washington thing is the 2013 coaching staff with all the coaches of it. That's like they've been the only good thing that's happened with Wyatt. They just show that photo. It's like, oh, look, Sean McVay. And they go all the way to Kyle Shanahan.

We had RG3 for Rookie of the Year. You loved RG3. RG3 beat Andrew Luck. RG3 was an unbelievable talent. He was absolutely, he just couldn't, you know, sustain the NFL. Would you put him in the top four most disappointing the way it turned

out compared to what the promise was list wow i mean cweb's one well cweb i barely had any any experience with right he wasn't a native washington he wasn't like a real we didn't draft him you traded everything for him and you were excited i knew you then then. I was excited. We were very close. We had two of the bad five. Are you kidding me? You were super excited about it. Beside myself, yes. You just bought a Guglielmo jersey and you didn't care. I didn't care. I was thrilled to have Jalen, I mean,

Juwan and Chris. Are you kidding? It's unbelievable how many bad sports experiences you've had in the basketball football front since college. I don't have any answer to that. It's like three decades of just kicks to the nuts. Yes. A lot of bad,

a lot of mediocrity. I mean, the boats have never been really that good since I've known you. 78. Other than the John Wall Beal team. Yeah. 2017, Kelly will win a game seven.

Father Kelly. He did it. And then, uh, Washington. So maybe new owner owner you got rid of snyder congrats thank you hope springs eternal it's a great moment do you want i don't want a quarterback i want to trade out of the pick come on i don't want a quarterback why wouldn't you

want a quarterback i don't understand they have other areas of need i i i'd love i'd much rather build the team up and then see what you can do. I don't want to take... You tell the committee this? I don't want to take one of these kids and have them go get killed. We just watched it with Bryce Young. What's the point of that? And your guy Frank Reich.

You said he was the best coach in the NFC South in August. You you did you said it I did not say that you said that I want I have honed in on Jaden Daniels

oh my scouts are at all of his practices we're thinking about him getting excited about him is he big enough I'll take any of these guys but yeah

my concern with him is he big enough there's some wow factor stuff everyone I talk to is like oh my god when Jaden Daniels is in the combine people are going to lose their fucking minds okay Everyone I talked to is like, oh my god, when Jaden Daniels is in the combine, people are going to lose their fucking minds. It's going to run

like a 4-3 and jump like a three-story building and do all this crazy shit. I can't wait. All right. Good luck to both of us. So, House, we're watching football. You got Ringer Wise guys on Saturday and Sunday. You get to meet Raheem in person.

I can't wait. Me and Dream. Raheem, JJ, Sal, you all together. It's going to be amazing. JJ, I'm bringing my sticks, bro. I'm going to bring my sticks and we're going to play some golf, bro. I don't think we're playing golf. Not with us.

You and I are going to be hanging out with Jacko. Can't wait. House, thanks for coming on. Always a pleasure. All right, it's time. Million dollar picks, round one, NFL playoffs. We were up 2.132 million for the season. We won $207,000 last week and things are going well. Not well enough for me to think I can go 13-0 in the playoffs, which has always been a dream of

mine to go undefeated against the spread in the NFL playoffs. Now that they added the two extra games, not possible. But I would love to go five and one or four and two on the big bets in round one, all of which we covered for the most part with Peter Schrager and Michael Lombardi in part one of the BS podcast. So I'm not going to regurgitate everything we said. You can probably guess what these picks are, but here we go. 350K on the following games. Browns minus two in Houston. I think that line should be three. I think the Browns are going to beat Houston. I think Houston's lucky to be there after Indianapolis should have put them away and didn't last week. Browns minus two. Rams plus three in Detroit. I think the Rams can win this game outright. I'm happy to take the plus

three. Hopefully their special teams won't screw it up. I think they're going to move the ball all game on Detroit. Steelers plus 10 in Buffalo. I'm breaking a playoff manifesto rule, taking Mason Rudolph, but in horrendous weather with awful wind, I'm not sure the quarterback's going to be chucking it that much. Just keep handing it off, Mason Rudolph.

Steelers plus 10. I think that line is three points too high, and I'm not a buyer of the Bills being back. I don't think they're back. Uh, they should have lost to Miami last week. They could have lost to the Pats two weeks earlier. I,

the signs of them being quote unquote back, I wish they were stronger signs. So Steelers plus 10, we're going to take chiefs money line parlayed with the adjusted under 51 and a half. And that crazy Dolphins game that's going to be freezing cold. Chiefs are favored minus 4.5. I don't love the backdoor potential,

so we're just going to say the Chiefs to win. A nice, ugly, slow, methodical, each team has long drives, tries to run the ball a lot, under 51.5. Sounds great. Minus 107 for that parlay. Packers plus seven and a half is the next one. Taking that in Dallas. I just think

they're going to be able to move the ball. I think they have a chance to win the game. At some point, I would pick Dallas to win the money line, but be scared of all the people who are going to tease Dallas in this game. Never a good sign. Packers have some nobody believes in us. Packers have been playing really well the last seven, eight weeks. And I like getting the hook. Packers plus 7.5. Last but not least,

the Bucs at home. Getting a little home dog here against a just disheveled Eagles team where Jalen Hurts is hurt, but he's going to play. We think he's got an effed up finger.

A.J. Brown is hurt. Might not be playing. Their defense is, might be dead. Uncle. Brown is hurt, might not be playing. Their defense might be dead, unclear. They're in a coma at least. And I think if Mayfield is remotely healthy, he can move the ball on them. Watch out for a big Mike Evans game, which we're going to cover in a second. Bucks plus three is the last one. So to recap, 350,000 on Browns minus two, Rams plus three, Steelers plus 10, Packers plus 7.5, Bucks plus three, and then a Chiefs money slash under 51.5 adjusted parlay. Those are the big

ones. And then we're going to put 25K on four semi-long shot parlays. So Najoku, 50 plus yards, Flacco, two plus TDs and 200plus yards passing. And the Browns to win the first half and the game. That's plus 477, jumping on that. We're going to do, in the Tampa game, Evans to score a TD. Evans to have 80 yards or more receiving. Baker, one pass TD, and the Bucks to win outright. That's plus 482. And then we're going to put 25K, 10 to 1 odds. Stafford, 275 passing yards at least.

Kupp and Nakua both getting 60 plus receiving yards. And then the Rams to win the first half and the game. That's 10 to 1. And then last but not least, 10 to 1 on the Steelers adjusted to plus four and a half. Harris, 50 plus rushing yards. Warren, 40 plus rushing yards. Warren, over 18.5 receiving yards. That is 10-1. Those are four little semi-long shot parlays and then in two of those cases, long. And those are the million dollar picks for round one. Safe gambling out there. Let's take one more break and talk about Bill Belichick one last time.

This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl,

but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. After decades of shaky hands caused by debilitating tremors, Sunnybrook was the only hospital in Canada who could provide Andy with something special. Three neurosurgeons, two scientists, one movement disorders coordinator, 58 answered questions, two focused ultrasound procedures, one specially developed helmet, thousands of high intensity focused ultrasound waves,

zero incisions. And that very same day, two steady hands. From innovation to action, Sunnybrook is special. Learn more at sunnybrook.ca slash special. All right, I wanted to read you something about Bill Belichick in 2015. Going backwards though, they hired him in 2000. I am living in Charlestown. I'm on my own

writing for the Boston Sports Guy site that I had created. And I'm writing columns. I'm doing a whole bunch of stuff. Belichick comes in. They go five and 11 the first year and everybody's giving him shit. They don't like his hair. They don't like how he dresses. They don't like him in the press conferences. He looks disheveled. And the Boston sports scene was so poisonous back then that the WEI, the local radio station, they called Boston Loserville and the Fellowship of the Miserable and just like they, we had them in good since the 80s. Everybody was not only miserable with the teams,

but just assuming the worst at all times, right? So going to 2001, they give Blitz a $100 million contract. They draft Richard Seymour. Expectations still could not have been lower. The Brady Bledsoe thing happens. Bledsoe gets hurt. At that point, I am writing for ESPN.com. They had hired me that summer and I had spent five weeks before my column actually started trying to figure out what that column was going to be. How am I going to be a national sports columnist? Because at the time there was no blueprint for it. Everything was local. Everything was local newspapers. How do I do it? How do I get an audience that's not just in New England?

And I figured I'd write pop culture. I'd write about sports movies. I'd go heavy on NFL. I'd have a gambling column. I'd go heavy on NBA. And the last piece was like, I'm going to write about fandom. I'm going to write about fandom. I'm going to write about being a Boston sports fan because I feel like no matter what city you live in, you might identify with some of the ups and downs of just rooting for the teams that you love. And that's what I decided to do.

And somehow that first year, the Patriots happened and Brady happens and Belichick happens. And we ripped through all the way. All of a sudden they win the division title. They win the snow game against the Raiders. They beat Pittsburgh as huge underdogs. And then I am in New Orleans covering my first Super Bowl ever.

The first one I ever went to. I'm sitting in the end zone and Vinatieri kicks the ball right to me for the game-winning field goal, the Patriots, the black sheep team that I rooted for my whole life, that I never, ever thought anything really good would ever happen with them. Even when they made the Super Bowl in 96, as moment Desmond Howard returned the touchdown, it was like, we're going to lose. You just always assume the worst with the Pats. That's what I grew up with.

Somehow it flips in New Orleans. We win the Super Bowl. I go back to my hotel room. I write half of a column. I go out with my friends. I go to Pat O'Brien's. I might have had like four hurricanes celebrating. Go back. I'm not drunk, but I'm not sober. It's the only time in my career I ever did this. I finished my column. I mailed it in and I went to bed. And then I woke up like four hours later and I emailed my editor, Kevin Jackson. And I'm like, I'm like, can I read that column before it goes up? And he, and he goes, it's up. We put it up. People love it. It's great. Was it great? I don't know. I tried to capture what, what, uh, what happened that day is probably too long. It was probably scattered, but in, in a way I love that it exists because those were all my thoughts right after the impossible happened. And then the impossible kept happening. They went back to back in 03 and 04. They became America's villains in 07. My column's getting bigger as this happens. And now I'm in this weird zone where it's like I'm writing from the fan's perspective, but not every fan has the perspective of your team keeps winning and winning and winning,

and they're turning into Duke or the Yankees. Now I got to deal with that. Now I'm writing about that. And then in 07, Spygate happens. I have my podcast at that point. That was the first year. Sal and I are doing Guest Alliance. I'm pissed about Patriots trying to figure out how to be objective, and I can't.

And it all leads to the giant Super Bowl when two minutes left. I'm there with my dad. It's his 60th birthday. We think the Pats are about to go 19-0, the greatest FU season anyone's had. And you know what happens next. Eli Manning, Tyree.

I have to go back to my hotel room. It took forever to get out of there. I have to write about this game. It's one of the worst sports losses of my life. I have to summon some sort of words about it. I think I did an okay job. And then it just, that's the way it went. Talking about the Pats, writing about the Pats, watching Belichick ascend into the greatest football coach of all time, or at least in the running by the time I'm going to read what I wrote in 2015. Brady is in the mix for one of the best quarterbacks ever. And yet they can't get that fourth Super Bowl. And now it's been like

almost 10 years and starting to wonder like, all right, this isn't really a dynasty if you win three and four years and then you can't win again. And then also like, maybe we used up all the luck we had in those three years. Is this going to happen again? These guys need this. And then the flake gate happens. Now it's us against them. This is perfect. This is like exactly what everyone in Massachusetts always thrives on. It's us and it's them.

Everyone who loves the Pats just moved into us against them mode. It was really fun. And ends up with the Seahawks game, which at that time I am writing for Grantland, which I created in 2011. It's year four. And I have about three months left at ESPN and I don't know that yet because I had been suspended in September.

I'm still writing. I'm still doing my job. And for this game, I went to a party. I watched it at the party. Did not know I was going to write about it. Went home, did a podcast with Sal at some point, either that night or Monday. And didn't think I was going to write about it,

but it was such an incredible game and such an incredible statement of the Belichick era that I was like, I got to write something. So I did a retro diary of the game. I'm going to read you two sections from the retroary that I wrote after the Patriots beat Seattle, Super Bowl XLIX. So here we go. I'm going to pick up halfway through right after the Javon Kearse catch. If you remember, the Pats are up.

They're up four and the Seahawks are coming down and they're in Pats territory in the 38 and they chuck it downfield and somehow curse makes the craziest catch ever. This is what I wrote. Everything went numb for like three minutes. Couldn't react. Couldn't feel anything. People were yelling in disbelief all around me. I couldn't move. They showed the replay. The football bounced off curse's hands, Ryan's hands back up into the air. As Kirst fell on his back and tried to find the ball, safety Daron Harmon jumped over his head.

Naturally, the football plopped back down off Kirst's left leg and then his right leg, buying him time to tip it with his right hand. Then it fell into his hands as he remained on his back. Also, he gave birth to a nine-pound baby just because everything else wasn't unbelievable enough. It's like God decided what could be worse than the helmet catch. What if I created a catch under the exact same circumstances with the exact same stakes in the exact same building with the exact same defense out there, only this time the football hits seven body parts before it's caught? Would that clinch Tyree 2.0 status?

Should I throw in a couple more body parts or are we good with seven? And if that weren't enough, after two gut-wrenching replays sandwiched the deja vu shot of a stunned Brady looking on in disbelief, Michael smartly remembered, this was where Tyree had the helmet catch. This is the crime, end quote, as NBC rolled off the helmet catch replay. I mean, what are the odds? Seriously, would you believe a Gone Girl sequel in which Ben Affleck's character gets framed for the murder of his second wife, Amazing Emily, who turns out to be just as crazy in all the same ways as Amazing Amy? You'd never buy this in a million years, right? Well, the lap dance catch happened. The lap dance catch somehow trumped the helmet catch.

It was even more ridiculous. My God, why do we follow sports? Why do we do this to ourselves? And no, I don't know what would have happened to me if I had gone to the game. I can't even imagine. Thank God I didn't go to the game, or so I thought at the time. And as I was thinking all these things, I didn't even realize that Seattle had blown its second time out or that Belichick was standing there for three idle minutes playing out all the possible scenarios in his head. Now there's 1.06 left.

First to go, New England three. Beast mode, rambles left. He heads for the end zone. I'll admit it, I want him to score before Patrick Chung's shoestring grab to slow him down and Dante Hightower got there just in time. They bring him down at the one.

Timeout Patriots. And I'm still dead inside. This is what Hannibal Lecter felt like after murder victim number 12 when he was running out of ways to stay interested. He started telling himself things like, maybe I could eat the victims. I am dead inside.

I can't feel anything. 058, second to go, New England 1. Wait, they're not calling timeout 056 call timeout 050 call timeout 048 I'm no longer dead inside 045 what is happening alright

let's go to 032 let's shift into present day mode we know what happened now but it made no sense at the time and took me nearly 24 hours to understand. This Washington Post piece helped. A long, fascinating email from a poker player helped. Talking to two of my Patriot sources helped.

Watching the game tape over and over again definitely helped. Here's what we know. Seattle had already wasted two timeouts, so it had to pass on second or third down. If it ran Lynch on second down and didn't score, it would have had to burn the third timeout and pass on third down too. But the Seahawks were expecting Belichick to call timeout.

Only he didn't. Remember that seemingly unimportant timeout that Brady wasted that made it impossible for New England to stop the clock three times in a row? This was now a poker game. What do you do when you know you have the lousy of your hand? You bluff. I believe he hatched this plan during Seattle's second timeout. If Lynch doesn't score in first down, here's what I'm doing next. He liked having those 50-50 pass odds on second down. He wanted the game to speed up. He wanted confusion and chaos. He wanted that in-game pressure to tilt Seattle's way.

And if you've ever been at the Super Bowl for a big win or go-home drive inside the 10, it's more chaotic than you'd ever imagine. I remember being there when the 2012 Niners drove for a first and goal against the Ravens in New Orleans. Seemed like they were scoring. They failed on first down. And then suddenly, the energy in the building changed. Everything got tense. You could feel it, like being on a speedboat

that's going a little too fast. So Belichick made an emergency plan, felt that instatum energy shifting after Lynch's first down run. And then he thought to himself, one time out, one yard to go, they're passing. Either a quick slant or Wilson rolling out. We spent the whole week practicing how to defend both plays. off. One timeout, one yard to go. They're passing. Either a quick slant or Wilson rolling out.

We spent the whole week practicing how to defend both plays. We can absolutely stop this. Remember, Malcolm Butler told reporters afterward that they'd specifically practiced to defend this pass play. And remember, door A, goal line stand, Pats win or lose. Door B, timeout New England. Seahawks get to regroup, talk it over, think of their perfect play. They score on second down. Brady has to dink and dunk for 55 yards

in less than 50 seconds against the league's best secondary. One timeout, no deep threats. If they don't score, Belichick uses his last timeout. They score on third down. Now, Brady's probably doomed. He's dinking and dunking.

It's happening in less than 45 seconds with no timeouts and Gostkowski has to nail the field goal and overtime has to go the right way. Don't forget, Belichick created the defensive plan that stymied the 1990 Bills. He helped Bill Parcells drag Vinny Testaverde to a freaking AFC championship game. He went 5-11 in his first Pat season from that point on, 170-54 in the regular season. 21-8 in the playoffs, including Sunday. His most playoff wins ever. One of two head coaches to win four Super Bowls. He's coached a record six Super Bowl teams.

He's won 11 of the last 12 AFC East titles. Only coach to ever finish 16-0 in a regular season. Only active member of the 200-win club. Only seven people in the club, by the way. The only active coach with more than 170 wins, and one of four coaches who won 100 more games than they lost. The last time Belichick finished below 500, Bill Clinton was president. Part of my French, but I'm going out on a limb and saying it wasn't a fucking accident that Belichick never called Tim out. He said to himself, we have a better chance of stoning them than we do of getting that field goal.

He redirected the pressure to Seattle's side. He hoped they'd implode. Well, let's go to 0-30 in the game. There's still confusion on Seattle's side. Lynch is on the right. Wilson tells him to shift to the left, so he does. Seattle's about to run a slant pass out of a three-receiver set

against an eight-man front and three cornerbacks. In other words, it's the right defense for this specific situation, and Belichick knows it. Pete Carroll doesn't realize it. All right, so Butler picks that. I'm coming back in as me. Butler picks the playoff. I wrote about Butler, that versus the Roberts. I wrote a bunch of stuff and did some emails. And then at the end, I came back to Belichick. And so an undrafted rookie made the biggest defensive play in Super Bowl history. But how much credit does Belichick get? People bring up his savvy game plans against the 1990 Bills and 2001 Rams, or the ballsy Brady over Bledsoe decision, or 11 wins without Brady in 2008, or a Super Bowl win with Troy Brown playing Nickelback, or even the controversial fourth down call against India

that didn't work and became the call that built the Sloan Conference. They bring up Spygate, they bring up his disheveled outfits, his salty press conferences, even his bad cop, good cop relationship with the crafts. They bring up how he mastered the art of trading down in drafts and coldly dumping key players one year too soon instead of one year too late. They bring up his Rain Man-like ability to relentlessly look forward without ever dwelling on the past. On to Baltimore.

On to Indianapolis. On to Seattle. He's a coaching machine. There's a human being lurking under there, someone whom his friends swear by, but Belichick never allows the public to see it. He uses Patriots fans the same way we use him and the crafts use him. We just want to win. We don't care that America doesn't like him. We stay out of his way. Just don't quit on us. Don't retire. Don't announce out of the blue, I'm good. I'm done. See you later.

You can't even compare him to other football coaches. Who was Belichick's competition these last 15 years? Andy Reid? Tony Dungy? Bill Cowher? Tom Coughlin? Please. And yet Belichick never had that one signature moment.

We never caught it when it happened in the Seahawks game. That's how good this one was. We thought he fell asleep. We thought he froze. Repeat. We thought Bill Belichick froze. You know what really happened? Belichick trusted seven months of practice

and two weeks of scouting. And he trusted the fact that he'd already prepared a 24-year-old undrafted rookie to react perfectly, historically, remarkably, if that slant was coming. He'll never get credit because the whole thing seemed too improbable. After all, how could a coach behave that differently from every other coach in that exact same spot? The answer is not like any other coach of anyone. Seriously,

of anyone. He's the one guy who would stand there and say, you know what? I think Pete Carroll might screw this up. I'm not doing anything. even if I don't have the best hand. I'm going to let him raise the pot. Check. The rest was history. Whenever you're arguing about the greatest NFL coaches of all time, just remember the final minute of Super Bowl XLIX. The man finally gave us his version of Jordan's game winner in the 1998 finals.

And like everything else that happened with the great Bill Belichick over the years, nobody totally believed him. And that's that. That was the greatest moment of Belichick's career. He went on to win two more Super Bowls. I did not realize that was going to happen. Could have won another one against the Eagles. Still can't figure out how they dropped that one. Then Brady leaves for Tampa Bay and Belichick. Four more years and did not go as well as the first 20. But you know what? It was all house money at that point. He was an unbelievable guy to root for, to have in your life. I've never seen anything like it. When he joined the team, I think I was 29 years old, 28 years old. Now I'm in my early mid-50s.

Never thought I'd see the Patriots win one Super Bowl. They won six and could not be more grateful to the guy. So I will root for him wherever he goes. I hope he gets the seventh Super Bowl somewhere else as long as it's not at the Pat's expense. And I hope he breaks the record. And he was a huge part of my life, even though he never knew it. So good luck to you, Bill Belichick. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti. Thanks to Joe House.

Thanks again to Lombardi and Schrager for joining me on part one. Don't forget about Ringer Wise, guys, on Fandle TV Saturday and Sunday mornings, breaking down all the playoff games, last minute bets, injury stuff, crazy parlays, you name it. We're all going to have it and you can watch it on all the Ringer platforms as well. And we'll be cutting out social clips from that.

And speaking of social, go check out youtube.com slash Bill Simmons. I've been putting up some walk and talk shorts up there and having a good time with those. So if you like that stuff, you can check that out. And I will see you on Sunday night with Cousin Sal. Can't wait. On the wayside On the Bruce and Leveron Must be 21 plus in President's Black States. Fando is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC.

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