The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 2: Eagles/C-Words Reax, Drake Maye Fever, the RB Boom and Million Dollar Picks With Joe House and Nate Tice

Episode Date: November 15, 2024

In Part 2 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Joe House to discuss the Eagles routing the Commanders on 'Thursday Night Football' (2:25). Then, Bill talks with Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports and NFL Network to discuss Drake Maye's impressive development, the 2024 NFL draft class, and projecting QB prospects (18:58), before Nate gives his five favorite things he's enjoying this NFL season, including surprisingly good defenses, the AFC juggernaut QBs, the Arizona Cardinals, and more (44:51). Finally, Bill and House run through their favorite games from the weekend slate (1:14:30), before making the Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 11 (1:44:38). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Nate Tice and Joe House Producers: Kyle Crichton and Steve Ceruti The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Okay, this is a true story. I have a friend who once faked his own death so he could have more time to watch his favorite TV show. In my new podcast, Truthless, I'm talking to people about the lies they tell, from forging new identities to taking their love of Game of Thrones a little too far. From Spotify and the Ringer Podcast Network, I'm Brian Phillips. Listen to Truthless on Spotify

or wherever you get your podcasts. As a Fizz member, you can look forward to free data, big savings on plans, and having your unused data rollover to the following month, every month. At Fizz, you always get more for your money. Terms and conditions for our different programs and policies apply, details at fizz.ca.

We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Put up a new rewatchables on Monday night when we meet the parents. We have a sports movie coming next Monday night. Maybe I'll give some hints over the weekend on the rewatchables Twitter feeds. Stay tuned for that. Hey, if you missed part one of today's podcast,

me and Big Waz and then Van Lathan joined us. We talked basketball, we talked Knicks and Bulls, we talked about the NBA's popularity these days with why the ratings are going down and yet the interest seems to be up. And that conversation went in a whole bunch of directions as it so often does when Van gets involved. But we also talked about Mike Tyson

and the big fight coming up this weekend and four decades of having Mike Tyson in our lives. So that was part one. Part two's a little simpler. Joe House is gonna come on at the very top. We're gonna be talking about the Washington, Philadelphia Thursday night game, the biggest NFC East game involving Washington in a long, long time.

And then House goes away. I bring in Nate Tice from Yahoo. We talk about Drake May, because he's on Drake May Island with me. And then we talk about the five things he's been the most excited about over the course of the season. Really fun football combo,

then bringing house back in to do million dollar picks. And by the way, it's not sober house tonight. I'm just warning you guys now. So that is the play in for part two. First our friends from Pearl Jam. ["Pearl Jam"] All right. Taping this first part of the podcast, it is almost 830 Pacific time. Joe House is here. His favorite team, the Washington Sea Words, was seven and two, a mere five days ago. And it's now seven and four. After two losses in five days,

I listened to you on a very good show called East Coast Bias on the Ringer Gambling Show today. And you were saying it felt a little early for Washington in a game like this. So make the same case you made 12 hours ago on that show. Well, I've had a couple of drinks just to be blunt about it right from the top. So I'll be able to get half of it. Right. Is it drunk? Is it drunk house or just slightly over served?

House buzzed. House. Okay. Buzz. Okay. Buzz. Yeah. But I'll say this. This Washington team has now lost four games on the season. All of their losses are to playoff teams from last year.

None of, none of their losses came to teams that they were forecasted to beat. They have against their three toughest competitors, all one score games. So it's this whole season is a silver lining season and Washington just isn't quite good enough yet. They don't have good enough players. They have good players and kudos to the front office and the coaching staff and everybody to put out the first competitive team that we've seen here in Washington.

Now we did make the playoffs a handful of years ago with Ron Rivera with the team that finished under 500. I don't remember that. Did make the playoffs in 2015. Did we bet against Ron Rivera when he made the playoffs with the under 500 too? We must have. Oh, I mean, it's lock of the century. I hope we did.

Yeah. Yeah. I hope we did. I mean, it's lock of the century. We had to have. Yeah. But you know, uh, for two and a half, three, three and a half quarters, Washington was in this game. Washington looked fine.

We know why you didn't win because your quarterbacks hurt. Yeah. That's the other part of it. I said this on, on the show. One of my favorite bets for this evening was Jane Daniels under 43 and a half rushing yards. He can't run right now because he's hurt. He's protecting his ribs. The team's protecting him. The point isn't to win in week 11. The point is to win enough games to make it to the playoffs. I think

they need to win three more games. The schedule sets up nice. We have a nice rest. Let's go through it. Yeah. Your home Dallas, home Tennessee next to. Great. You're favored by five, five and a half against Dallas, seven against Tennessee. You got a bye week at New Orleans, home Philly, home Atlanta, at Dallas again.

You get Dallas twice when it looks like they're punting on the season. It's wonderful. Couldn't be better. You might get to 11 wins anyway. Yeah and I think in the NFC you get to Ted's great chance of getting in there and this little mini-buy can't be overrated right? They go from this Thursday night game which I hate. I hate a divisional game on a Thursday night but now they they have the rest. We're going to get Marshawn Latimer. We're going to get, you know, Jane Danos.

Hopefully those eight days are meaningful to his recovery. They're the offensive lines a little dinged up. Cliff Kingsbury doesn't think so because he thinks that we should try the short yardage rushing plays that the Eagles, there were eight short yardage rushing plays, this is, I'll just do my Kingsbury bit for 10 seconds, eight short yardage rushing plays for Washington, they amassed a total of negative one rushing yards.

Is it second half Cliffs, or do we have second half Cliffs in our lives? Are you talking second half of the season, or second half of a game, or both? All of the above. All the above, sadly. So if Cliff was a baseball pitcher, he'd be the, I don't want to see the lineup a third time guy.

I'm tapping my right arm. I'm tapping. You're bringing in the situation of lefty. Yes, exactly. Well, that was the key part of the game was when it was, what, second and one. It felt like an either or game. I was sweating out an Eagles tease and an Eagles parlay. Second and one stuff.

Third and one stuff. Let's go for it on fourth and two. Fumbled handoff. Daniels tackled three yards away from line of scrimmage. And that flipped the game. I thought, you know, and maybe I had some PTSD from last year with Jalen Hurts, but I think it was the Giants last year. I can't remember, with that game,

the Eagles murdered literally every T's on the planet when Hurts threw that last interception into like five guys and it was like, oh, I bet on the Eagles during the one game this year when Jalen Hur is just looks terrible and like he has seven injuries. It felt like that today in the first half. It felt like he doesn't look right.

What's going on here? Are they hiding an injury? His body language gets weird. You know, he starts getting a little hang doggish. You start, he's a little slow to get up after it gets knocked down. Your defense was flying around and I, I felt like maybe you could steal like a 13 to 10 type game. It was sitting there for a while and then say one Barkley took over.

And that defense, you know, God, God bless them. It's all, you know, retreads and guys that are, you haven't established themselves, uh, with, with much in the way of pedigree yet, Frankie Louvo is awesome. Bobby Wagner has pedigree. Um, yeah, yeah. Yeah.

And there's like, you know, like five or six guys who've established, but you know, you still have St. Juice out on the corner. Uh, the kid from Michigan. Now that looks like the steel of the draft. Sandra still, uh, incredible. They went at him with both AJ Brown and, and, uh, Smith and he, he, he was with the same route and he was there for both of them.

So knock on wood. It's a, it's a, it's good. This is good team in progress. How did you feel about Dan Quinn's? Arms up in the air were up by seven on a Thursday night game with a chance to blow every parlay and teaser double fist pump scream reactions like at least from From a character standpoint. He seems like he'd be a fun coach to have considering your last coach is basically Who is more dead him or Joe Biden in retrospect?

Ron Rivera or John Biden? Ron Rivera, I mean, respectfully, Ron Rivera did just beat cancer last season. Oh my, why did that have to be the retort? Respectfully. I was setting you up for a Biden joke, and now you have to get all serious on me, Jesus. We're way by it, we're way past the Biden joke.

Is there a video of Ron Rivera walking on the beach in Delaware like Biden or no, maybe maybe the two of them had to hand together. Notice, notice Biden's wife didn't put her arm out. She maybe maybe helped the old man as he's trying to navigate some sand. Jesus, there isn't, there isn't a lot of physical contact between those two. Ever since it became clear that he wasn't going to run for president again. You can't catch those two together in a single camera frame. Yeah, it's tough, tough times. We'll see how it goes. Um, okay. So big picture.

I would have said Philly was maybe my number one draft pick for the other NFC title spot against the trade. Something's missing and I don't know what it is. Now, granted, their kicker today, they scored 26 points, their kicker missed two field goals and a PAT, so really they could have been in the 30s. But I don't know what it is, but they have not won me over as the second team yet.

The problem is I don't know who the second team is. Like, we could have the Green Bay conversation, maybe we'll know more this week. Maybe this is the week San Francisco gets going. Maybe Minnesota will start looking again like they did in September go on and on. But I just don't know who the team is. I still think it's Philly and I think that they remain a work in progress themselves. You have to remember like this is, and they made a point of it on the, on the broadcast.

Alan Kirk, you know, America's favorite Thursday night couple, uh, they, um, you know, Fangio's defense takes a little while for guys to get, they have two outstanding guys in that secondary, Quinian Marshall and, and, uh, Dijine and those guys are, are, are, are clearly, you know, getting it. Jalen Carter had a dominant game tonight against the Washington offensive line that's been a revelation. So I think as they put it together.

Defensively, ultimately they won that game with, with, with their defense. Right. That's what we would say. Um, and I, I mean, I haven't seen anything out of San Francisco. It is San Francisco keeps trotting out the 30th ranked special teams, get the F out of here. What they did last week. Isn't it worse than 30th?

It was 30th before all the shenanigans last week. Well, there was a lot of... It must have dropped. There was a lot of bad special teams. I mean, Atlanta's kicker had three missed field goals. But in any event, as you go down the list on the NFC side, um, there there's, it's a lot easier to poke holes than express confidence. I,

I think on both sides of the ball, the Eagles are, are, are the second best. Yeah. It probably by default, but I don't feel good about it. Okay. It is only week 11. Remember, this is a marathon. How many NFC teams would you take over the second NFC team? I would take the Bills. Buffalo and KC, would you take both of them?

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. Probably the Ravens. I don't know. I would take the Ravens. Ravens are close. Would you rather be the Chargers or the Eagles? Oh, definitely the Eagles. No, no, Ravens are close. Ravens are the most. Would you rather be the Chargers or the Eagles?

Oh, definitely the Eagles. No, no, no, come on. We're not there yet. The Chargers just discovered that they have two receivers. Would you rather be the Steelers or the Eagles? Eagles. Those weapons on the outside. I think I'd rather be the Steelers

because the Sirianni factor, which did not rear its ugly head tonight because maybe on Thursday nights is better. But fair enough. So your teams, I'm guessing a playoff team still. Yeah. I don't see a scenario where that doesn't happen unless, unless Daniels is really hurt, but even now you're seven and three, seven and four. I'm sorry, you're seven and four.

You have a one game lead over Green Bay who's number three in the NFC North. Nobody in the NFC South's catching you. And then in the NFC West, Arizona's six and four, San Frans five and four, and the Rams, who we touted a couple weeks ago, who now are in a must win spot against my guy Drake May and the P, who we touted a couple weeks ago, who now are in a must-win spot against my guy Drake May and the Pats.

Yep. So, 10 wins feels like it gets into the playoffs, right? I agree, yeah. I think it's 10 wins in the NFC, and I like our chances. I think I'm cautiously optimistic. Has this been a good season for rehabilitating your Washington commander relationships in your life? I mean, look, I'm wearing the hat.

What kind of text threads are you on? How many different Washington text threads are you on? A half dozen, at least. And it's unbridled exuberance. Like, you know, we have a football team where everybody's, you know, in my conversations, it's around what the future might hold. And everything begins with this quarterback. We must keep this kid healthy.

Uh, but if, if we have that foundational piece, then it's been demonstrated, especially in his rookie year, in his first 11 games in his rookie year, he's showing that he belongs in the upper echelon. You get that, that you have a window. And if you have a window, you better jump through it in this modern NFL. The next segment, I'm talking to Nate

Tice about Drake May. It's the exact same situation. Yeah. We're like, wow, we now have. I even when this happened with Brady for the Pats and even Bledsoe in the 90s. But I was way younger with having my history of football knowledge and just how important

a quarterback was. You're like, oh, we'll get a quarterback. When you get older and you realize how rare it is, and then you get one of these guys, it's like the number one thing you'd want in any sport. Well, and in this iteration of the NFL, this version, because of the way the salary caps configured getting the most important player on the team at the cheapest possible price and then trying to build around it.

It's why I admired what Houston did in the off season, this most recent off season in terms of trying to add. It's got aggressive. You got to go. You got to go. The time is now if you have a quarterback like this. So I expect Washington with Adam Peters. It's like what the Wizards are gonna do with Bob Carrington. Same thing.

Very simple. Now that you have your foundational piece. He's the guy. Now you gotta, and Jordan Poole, now you have that one two punch. Oh, you had to do it. Jordan Poole had 42 points last night. Why'd you have to say do that? He had 42 points last night. Why'd you have to say do that?

He had 42 points last night. All he did, you know what that man did? Delivered a cover. You know the line was 10 and Washington lost by 9. Jesus. I think we're in the heyday of betting on It's a pool party baby, it's a pool party! We're in the heyday of betting on huge underdogs

in the NBA right now. You notice that? Like the fucking, whatchamacallit, Hawks, were 16 point underdogs and just went into Boston and beat them. I don't even, there might not even been a money line in the game. This three point variance, it's like,

it's insane to lay that many points with any team. All right, anything else in this game? Because we're gonna take a break and bring you back later for million dollar picks unless you have anything else. No, I'm pleased. This is, you know, they, they, they were competitive, good, happy. Let's move on. Let's get, let's get to 10 wins.

Okay. Um, house before we send you packing and bringing Nate Tice, I love the NBA cup. You also love the NBA cup, correct? Oh, not only do I love it. I gave out a beautiful group C C cup parlay on the Fanto sports book. It's on the socials baby. The C cup parlay. I love the cup.

You kidding me? What was the C cup parlay? The, the, the Cavaliers to win group C in the East and the Warriors to win group C in the West plus 485 baby C-cup Well, you know what makes the NBA Cup even better than the C cup parlay a ringer profit boost token on Fandol Which you could throw that house bet on right now We told Fandol we want to celebrate the NBA Cup give out some profit boost

So what do we do? We created the 30 on 30, ringer profit boost token, boost any 30 plus point score bet on the Friday NBA Cup slate, and that's any 30 plus point score that has minus 200 odds or higher, is eligible for a 30% profit boost.

Is your team playing in this on Friday? I don't know, are they? You can feel the excitement with the big cup. Yeah, your team's playing Atlanta. Oh, congrats. Do you have a 30 point score you wanna do? Yeah, that's the only team Washington has beat this year. Let's say Bilal Kulabali drops a 30 piece.

Oh my God, I can't even imagine what the odds on that would be. Kulabali 30 piece baby. Kulabali, I wonder if Fandl, do they even have the odds for that? Probably not because his career high is like 27. More wagers. Oh, look at this. Player points.

Oh, they don't have Kulabali. How dare they? How about Trey Young, Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, or Jalen Johnson? Could Jordan Poole have 30 points against the Hawks? Plus 410? He's dying to have the chance. He's dying for that opportunity.

No, we'll stick with... We liked Cleveland for this. Yeah, sure. So Cleveland has Donovan Mitchell plus 195, 30 points against the Chicago Bulls. Okay. Good. Great. Let's do that.

We'll, we'll recommend that one. There you go. Hope you liked the ringer profit boost. Again, any 30 plus score that is minus $200 or higher is eligible for the 30% profit boost. We are doing it each Friday during the NBA cup house. I'm going to send you packing for a little bit, bringing Nate Tice, bring you back on the end as Buzz House to do a million dollar pick.

See you in a second. All right, Nate Tice is here. I'm taping this in a studio I've never been in before. This is really exciting. I feel like I'm in a futuristic year or something talking NFL. You can read Nate, you can listen to Nate on Yahoo and the Yahoo Sports Network.

We were just talking before we came on about this is the weirdest part of the NFL season. Explain your theory on this. It's that little lull before Thanksgiving hits and it happens every November. And it's kind of team start getting chopped off but we don't wanna say it yet just in case You know, so like all right, we got to kind of talk about the Bengals a little bit

All right, just in case well the Jets won a game So we kind of have to talk about them still now we until we can kind of get to Thanksgiving I think everyone's a little too scared to just completely defeat them out of our discussions completely wipe them out So we have this little lol always just little just a little lull from like week nine. When we do the little mid-season awards to like week 13. And then we get to Thanksgiving and then December. And then we're like, oh yeah, yeah, here we go. Playoffs are coming up.

Here we go. Let's rock. I like that chopped off sound. I call it the cross-offs where we, we cross teams off, but cause we're still making picks and stuff. You never really know who can fully be crossed off So there's almost two forms one is Hey, do we not have to worry about these teams as playoffs anymore?

Playoff teams anymore, and then the other is what you're saying which is basically like can we just not talk about these guys anymore? Can we just wait until 2025 I feel that way about like I'm looking at the standings Vegas Yep, I'm good. Never talking about Tennessee again. Jacksonville ran on the cusp. There's such a train wreck that, you know, maybe part of it. And then Carolina would be the other one and then the Giants. So that's five. Is there anybody else you'd have?

No, those are, those are really good. That's a good set right there. Cause even like the ones that we thought maybe we're going to drop off or still, like I said, interesting, you know, like, um, I, I like a good loser leaves town match at the same state of the year, like starting in November, we can start getting those out there. You know, it's almost survivor series time, so we can do that. So I love a good loser leaves towns match. Like, okay, these two teams are playing.

Whoever loses. Yeah. You're not getting talked about for a few weeks until we start talking about draft order or a new head coach. So what do we call it happen in Germany last week? What, what was that was a two, two losers that should have left town. That was Sunday night heat or Saturday morning jack. That was the, the C shows, you know, from WWE used to have. That's what that was right there.

Well, how show I didn't just bring you on to talk football. I had selfish reasons. Cause I'm an only child. that was right there. Well, how show. I didn't just bring you on to talk football. I had selfish reasons because I'm an only child. You were, you planted your flag on Drake, May Island, about as violently and aggressively as anybody last February, March and April, which really prompted us to start texting and going back and forth a lot more because I'm like, I just, I, I like how this guy's thinking. I hope he's right.

And I think he's right, but there's not a lot of us. And then watching Drake May finally gets the job. He's got D minus offensive line is generous D minus receivers, generous D plus play calling generous. And I'm just so excited about what he's looked like. So you're, you're, you're, you don't care about the Patriots. You're an objective guy. What have you seen?

What are you excited about? It is funny when I start kind of playing flags on quarterbacks, I kind of get involved via Twitter and the beats for those teams. So I've been introduced to more Patriots reporters and bloggers than I ever even knew about going into this year. And also maybe why Belichick told them, never gave them anything because holy crap,

the day-to-day stuff that was going on during training camp with the Patriots was, it was pretty interesting. But this is me kind of raising that flag. I'm like the picture at Iwo Jima. Like the flag is just starting to get raised up there. I think you're down there. A couple of us are up there. We're all pushing it up. This is why I was excited about him. He's a walking, talking, explosive play. And I think in the NFL right now, that is what you need at quarterback. You need guys, yes, to

be smart and play the quarterback position. I mean, it's like operation and nickel and diming, getting the safe throws. I always thought may could do that better than people gave him credit for. But then you see the first completion against the bears to Austin Hooper throwing a guy open 25 yards down the field, or the week before the couple of weeks before I should say him just scrambling around when nothing was there, tucking or running against the Titans and against the jets that didn't end as well, but tucking or running and getting those opportunities. And that's what he was in college with a bad supporting cast. His second year starting,

his last year starting. So that's why I was kind of like, no matter what his situation was, I kind of thought he'd be able to still show signs because of just his explosive playability and his used to D minusness around him. But this is, you know, it's not all perfect, but there's so many just encouraging signs of the little things that they're doing, that completion that he had before the half against the Bears. When they, he hit, that was my favorite throw, probably he's made as a pro, which was just the in breaker to pop, no or no, to booty, um, bootay. And then it was right there. Clock ticking down, no timeouts. He runs up, they spiked,

they spiked the ball up, beautiful operation with one second to go. That is so encouraging because that's not only just a cool throw that anyone can watch. It's also just the little things, the awareness of that situation. Again, this is why I was so excited about them with the intangible stuff that we talked about the last time I was on the show, talking about being the little brother, being a good athlete, being competitive, you're already hearing stories about him having, you know, speaking to the team and requesting to do that. Pretty, it's pretty exciting. I'm sure Patriots fans are exciting, but I just think any good people, appreciator of good quarterback play should be

excited about Drake May because he has, there's glimpses right now, special stuff that he's doing. I've read all of those stories. There was a really, there was a whole day of media coverage about when Drake May spoke to the team last week because he didn't love the practice habits and the Wednesday practice and asked to speak in front of her,

but in there like, okay, do your thing, Drake May. And he went up and gave a, like a, they said it was like a fun speech. Um, definitely kicked the team in the butt a little bit. It was a little awkward, but everybody was like, oh, he's doing it. He's becoming a leader now. This is happening. I think he had been afraid to, you know, he's the rookie, he's young.

Yeah. Um, but I think that was one of the things that, when you read this stuff about him in college, that was pretty special about him, that he really did get it. He got like the whole, I'm the quarterback, this is my car, I'm the driver, I understand this piece of it.

And you know, you look at some of the other guys that come in, it was notable with Caleb last week, watching that Bears-Pats game and how distant he seemed, which I think was a product of they're playing like shit. The coaching situation was obviously debacle. Didn't seem like anyone was on the same page, but you know, who would I rather have? Obviously, I'm picking Drake May because he's on the Patriots, but I didn't think it was going to be this close, Nate.

Like, I didn't think, I thought Drake might not play this year. I didn't expect this. Yeah. Which I was pulling my hair out a little bit because I never thought the mental side for May was why he had to sit, which is why you usually sit a guy. Well, this guy's only been in an air raid offense. He's never had to handle this. He's never had to handle that.

He's never had to be in a huddle. All those things. And I watched May and the in-between stuff was a lot of encouraging mental aspects. I saw him changing protections. I saw him doing a lot of aspects that maybe encouraged that he could start right away. And I think the footwork stuff got overblown because footwork was like,

that's coachable. That's what drove me nuts during that whole draft process where people act like that's damning. It was, well, what if we cleans up the footwork that you guys are all worried about and he's doing these things with quote unquote bad footwork. And a lot of stuff is just people kind of talking out their ass, I think, you know, they like he, he, he bounces, you even see him now. And even the quarterback coach talked about, I'm blanking on his name right now, but he

was talking about like, Hey, you look and how he moves in the pocket. That's a good thing. Cause he's keeping his eyes downfield because he's looking to attack the defense. And sometimes when another offensive lineman's losing, it can look like he's drifting into another pressure, but he's going away from the initial pressure, which is a good thing. That's exactly what you want. Um, the speech thing too, is just that mentality. He has that perfect level of golden retriever brain that I love.

You know, Josh Allen's got that a little bit too, where it's like, it's confidence in everything, but they still have that little goofiness that's like, okay, you're not just a total robot, you know, that people can relate to this. He made the, he made the reporters clap for the defense. That was hilarious. Cause it was just, he, it's just genuine. Like he's just going out. No, it's not authentic.

I'm with you. I agree. Right. it wasn't like him going like oh this will be funny he was like hey let's do it like one person clapped and he was in phase he was like yeah okay that was fun like those little things really add up especially when you're losing everything you can do anything when you're winning everything's great when you're winning but when you're losing those little things and guys are going like oh this guy's not like a total diva or this guy is not a total just know, homeschool kid. Like some of these quarterbacks can act like this guy's just a player.

You hear other receivers talk about them. I mean, they all rave about them in between complaining about not getting the ball. They all rave about them. Like, so, uh, like that's those, again, these are just the little things when you're not in the building that you kind of look at, look for and go like, oh, okay, these are the things I would bet on. And I mean, the bet's looking really good right now. I don't feel like I'm talking out of school with this story. I sat next to Christian Gonzalez at the Celtics next game on Friday night.

So he went and apparently, uh, they were trying to get Drake May to go to the Celtics and Drake May didn't want to go because he didn't feel like he was playing well enough yet to go to a Celtic game on a Friday night when they had to leave the next day. And I was like, oh, that's so adorable, Drake May. I'm so glad you haven't lived up to your own standards yet as a QB, but I was like super excited to see that.

He's checked every box for me, everything I've wanted to see, but it's interesting. Obviously they're using him terribly. I don't understand half of the plays they run for him. One of the things I was saying to a friend of mine was, I don't understand why they just don't look at the 57 most successful Josh Allen plays that Buffalo has run for Josh Allen since 2019, and just running all of those plays and I mentioned that to you and

You said that wasn't the guy that he reminds you of and you dropped the name that I did a double-take So say the name. Oh god This is even more of a lofty praises that the high high-end Comp I have for him and this was going to the draft process was John Elway high-end comp I have for him and this was going in the draft process was John Elway. Yeah, I know. It's that big arm. Elway was, again, these are late memories. We remember the Broncos winning the Super Bowls with Mike Shanahan and him becoming more of a bootleg guy and more of an auxiliary guy to the run game. Being a Shanahan run game and he was moving on the move.

He's pretty beat up in the mid late 90s too. He'd take it. He's 38. But prime Elway was running around throwing, you know, launching balls, trying to try all these aggressive throws. And again, this is the 0.001% comparison for May, but that's the guy where I was trying to come up with some high end comp. And I was like, that's really who I think of because the looseness of the athlete being able to throw a missile, wherever he wants that competitiveness, sometimes that like, he's not a dummy. I call him a golden retriever, but Elway was a coach's kid, obviously very smart, but he was still try stuff.

You know, it's still trying like still and still push the ball. He honed it in as the years went along, you know, shoot, the Broncos drafted Tommy Maddox for a reason. Um, but they, but really it was just that kind of loose athlete, that big arm. And that's where, like, I see the ideal version of him becoming where it is a guy that throws on the move, there is more polished as it comes along. But even the stuff like the mistakes he makes right now, um, John Hollinger, Hollinger always, when he used to write the stat write-ups for ESPN, this always

kind of stuck with me that he would talk about young players and usage and turnover rate actually being a good sign down the road to star level play. Because it's those guys, they have the trust to handle the ball and two, that they're trying stuff. Like that is the kind of the counter of what's happening with Caleb Williams right now is that he's really trying to be perfect from the pocket and it's limiting his creation ability.

While May is playing just loose and fast and everything. And yeah, he'll make a mistake. He'll try a ball. I mean, the interception against the Bears was just a lapse. You know, like just in my blood. He's just gonna have two of those a game is, and we've already come to grips. That's how it's gonna go.

It's fine. Yeah, but you take the other 48 good playing teams and you just deal with those overwhelming negatives because he's figuring out even Mayo addressed this he even said he was like, yeah, I want him to try and figure this stuff out You're learning what my ceilings are. Oh, I can't do that. That's time Okay, and what's cool about May is you can tell he learns from those mistakes Like he is so cognizant. It's him talking about not going to the Celtics game. That self-awareness, I think is just really encouraging.

You want that for any athlete, but especially your franchise quarterback, you take it number three. And again, that's why it's encouraging. Yeah, and the Josh Allen thing, which makes the most sense just cause he's recent, but there's, Josh Allen's huge. Drake's big, but he's not big like Josh Allen is.

Josh Allen feels like he's winning collisions. Drake, I'm still nervous when, in certain collision situations. But we were talking about it last week. I've never had a quarterback, like we had Steve Grogan in the mid-70s, so I barely remember, but he ran for over 500 yards.

Like he was a running QB before his knees went I've never had a quarterback who makes some of the decisions that he makes during a game like he'll go back Oh, and then he'll run up the middle and he'll run up the middle like trying to get yards and trying to get like It's not just like I'm gonna run seven and slide down. He's like I'm running up the middle like I'm McCaffrey He'll run he'll go to the right and you see like, I call it the Zach Wilson, the scramble to the right, nothing's there, I'll throw it out of bounds. He does the Josh Allen thing where until the very last split second, he's still looking even 40 yards downfield. So it's just really exciting to watch him. And to me, it's like,

I'm positive he's going gonna be a franchise QB. The Elway thing is interesting though, because I still feel like Elway's the most talented QB I've ever seen. I don't think he was the best. I think Brady's won the best, because he earned it. Montana, I always had the highest from that era,

because he just felt like he was in the right hands with him. But I always thought Elway was just, Elway felt like he could just take the shittiest team and win like 10 games. And just that, just the size of those two, they're both 6'4", 225. Yeah. They're both like, and that's, thank you for saying the Allen thing. That's why I never want to throw out the Allen comp. There's some play style comparisons, but that's like comparing, you know, a two guard with a power forward, right?

You know, like it's yes, they can play a little similar. They do some wonky or wacky things. The sideline throws exactly a great example, but it's also just like a, yeah, Allen is six, five and change and a legitimate two 40 and a guy like Justin Herbert, who also gets the Drake May comparisons, Herbert's 6'6 240. Like that and 6'4 225 and 240 like that that is a significant difference. Well you know what that's like that it's like Cooper flag because they're, Cooper flag is

definitely special and they're comparing him. It's like is it KG and it's like all right there's pieces of KG but KG was 7'1. Cooper flag's like 6-9 maybe. So you can't... He comps for him? That feels weird for me. Well, they were, well, they're just talking about like him and Duncan, how, uh, these guys that just can affect the game in all these different ways that just play the game

the right way that are in the right spots. Don't care if they score, but ultimately he's, there's a size difference. The same with Alan. There's, I don't even know who you, but ultimately there's a size difference. The same with Allen. I don't even know who you'd compare Allen to in the history of the league. No. Like Cam Newton, I can throw even better. But again, you're using different disclaimers with that.

Flag was, I watched the Kentucky game. Yeah, Flag's got it. Yeah, he's got something. So if- Just the body positioning. If we're doing this, this draft again, is it still the same order? Yeah. And I would say I Jane Daniels for me.

Well, well for me, yeah, because I may want and then kill too, but I would say Jane Daniels squeezed it closer than I gave him credit for. I had that like a, I had a half tier gap with Daniels, you know, still some of the stuff I've been very impressed with and I'm eating crow on Cliff Kingsbury. Trust me. Um, and I just actually wrote about it today and just the offensive improvements, the cool stuff they're doing a lot of tempo stuff. And I think Daniels has played to what I thought maybe his ceiling would be.

There's just still some stuff I'm still wanting to see in the second half of the year, how much he doesn't, you know, really push the ball. It's very selected when he pushes the ball and he don't get me wrong. I'm talking about both sides of my mouth. He is excelling when he does it, but it's just, they haven't really faced the toughest slate of defenses that forced them to do it. They faced the Steelers who really took it to them and it's, you can see them just not be comfortable.

And we're taping this before the Eagles game. So that might be another defense tonight. That's another one. And also my, my little short list I got, I'm talking a little Eagles in that too. So, but the, uh, but this, I just, and, but the thing was, I thought Danos was a half tier below those guys. And I would say now him and Caleb are more closer for me than I would have gave him credit for.

I'm still worried about the skinniness. Um, he has done a phenomenal job of avoiding hits. He is so, so fast. I like, he is incredibly fast. But the thing is, you know, the long season, you know, you just take a couple of wrong hits, a couple of big blows, those start to stack up, you know, body blows start to stack up.

So I've still though, I think I still would have him one, two, three like that, but Daniels would be a true number three or more of a two B, two A kind of thing. Do you care about, well, obviously're going to care about a little, but the ages of the different guys. Like Daniel's is two and a half years older than May. How much of that is an advantage as you're factoring that in? Because it's got to be somewhat of an advantage, but I never know how to calculate that. Absolutely. And that's another thing why Daniel's a little bit lower. Like his two red alerts, not to say red alerts, but I guess I was about how to calculate that. Absolutely. And that's another thing why Dano's a little bit lower.

Like his two red alerts, and I would say red alerts, but I guess I was about to say red flags, but two kind of red flags there were age, skinniness, throwing over the middle, and you know, the hits that he took, he seems to be able to mitigate throwing over the middle. You can do that if you win other ways. He wins with acceleration and speed. But the thing is, again, what else are we tapping into? This is exactly how he played in college. Yeah. And it was good in college. He won the fricking Heisman. But again, this does matter because he was an

older prospect. Bo Nix is a super old prospect. Bo Nix was as old as the oldest quarterback since Brandon Whedon drafted in the first round. You know, that absolutely matters. Drake May was in true air raid offenses that had no detail and no structure. That's why I was bullish on him. Was that, okay, we haven't even tapped into what he's actually good, what he could actually become. Caleb Williams in kind of a Lincoln Riley offense, that takes adjustment to the NFL.

I just thought that he had some, and I still do, I think he's actually pretty advanced mentally, but that I thought he would actually transition a little better. But even for me, I was like, Oh, maybe I was a little ahead of myself there. But yeah, they're going to have more of a learning curve, especially than a guy that's 24, who has maybe seen 20 more games. Those reps add up. So yeah, no, absolutely age, especially at quarterback is a big thing because it's just reps that these guys have. Like Anthony Richardson is younger than all these guys. So it's, you know, that's just another aspect of evaluating these guys. We talked about this the last time.

It's so crazy that we are no better at this in 2024 than we were like 50 years ago, that we could have more and more data evidence of all these types of guys. And we still have no idea who's going to like, I don't think Caleb's going to be a bust, but if you told me he's going to be a bust, I wouldn't be like, there's no way, you know? Whereas like there's NBA guys that I would, I was like, that guy's not going to be a bust. There's no chance this guy, unless he gets hurt.

But with quarterbacks, we've just seen it too many times where the combination of maybe you weren't quite ready yet, your team's a disaster, you lost confidence, you took some hits, your eye level moved down, and it's just this chain of events that all of a sudden you're in a different spot. Even like watching Sam Darnold now in Minnesota versus the Sam Darnold I watched, although Sam Darnold hasn't been great lately. But you just think like how much damage can you put on a rookie QB in a wrong situation where you've now unraveled this to the point you can't put it back in the bottle.

Yeah. The scar tissue of it all. And I think maybe this should be a great learning example for everybody about, you know, shoot, we're still discussing Trevor Lawrence and whether he's it or not, but it's like how much situation matters for even the best quarterbacks. And then I mean, there's 11 guys on offense, 22 starters. Well, we know it matters. The question is, is it 90% of this and not 25% like situation? Yeah.

You know what I mean? I'd say it's at least half. Right. No, it is. I mean, look at Jared Goff from rookie year to Jared Goff with Sean McVey next year. Like that, it went from, this is the worst rookie quarterback I've ever seen to, wow. Oh, okay. We actually got something here to almost an MVP candidate.

And also another thing too, I want to, because Caleb got, is getting, you get a lot of backlash if you could describe as generational. Which is why that, that G word should be outlawed. It's a, it's a bet that we're making on these prospects. Some bets like, you know, Wemby, the alien, Victor, like, yeah, 90% star here, you know, 8% starter and probably a 1% bench bust. Why a guy like CJ Stroud, he was my quarterback one in that class. you know, 8% starter and probably a 1% bench bust. Why a guy like CJ Stroud,

he was my quarterback one in that class. I thought his, I look at it as star starter bench bust. You know, that's, it's a basketball one I take for it. But, but him, I thought his star was like 10%. But I thought his starter was gigantic. Like I was like, I could see this. Like almost like 65%. Yeah. I was like this I was like 65%. Yeah.

I was like this guy, that guy to me felt so safe, even though he was younger and all the, and he had questions about, you know, creativity and all those things. But I was like, man, this guy, like, I just don't see him failing. Like I just thought his, and then a guy like Richardson in the same class, it was like, I see a 20% star, maybe 25%, but I also see a 30% bust. And, and same thing, Caleb for me had a huge starter, a good chunk start, a star. And then just, I just thought he had a small bust potential.

Like it was just, again, but he still had it. All these guys have it. Even a guy like May, who I, is one of my highest graded quarterbacks I've ever had. Um, they're going to have that, but it's all for me chasing that percentage of star because that's what you need to win. Would you have for the, for the pie with, uh, Bo Nix, what was starter in the pie? His starter was like, you got to name this pie by the way. Is it like the, I don't know, like a skin pie or something?

I don't know. I stole from Candice Hoopis and a guy that now works for the nuggets actually, he's like the analytics guy there. And he, and I just always liked the terminology for it. And that's kind of what I applied. But his, the one that stuck with me, it was, uh, Zach Levine was the guy did an analytics thing on him. And he goes, Hey, I got to bring up the comparisons and like number

eight on the comparison chart was Michael Jordan. She was talking about it. He was like, there was all these boss and and then, but then the, like three of the comparisons of his like stat stuff was like, well, you got to look at the athletes and all that. And then that was the argument about Zach Levine. It was like, he might wash out of the league in two years, but he has that 20% chance or 10% chance of being a star and all star, yada yada.

So that's the player that that stuck out for me. But like a guy like Nick's, I, he was my quarterback, uh, five. And I viewed him more as a second rounder. I thought I still thought he got overdrafted. I, the argument with him, but, or maybe my argument against him was he had a ton of starts, but he still was so skittish. I thought his footwork was really bad. It's still kind of as if he, um, he takes, he just has wonky playsish. I thought his footwork was really bad.

It's still kind of as if he, um, he takes, he just has wonky plays. He's a little too safe with the football down the field. His accuracy is not great, but I still saw a starter in there. Even my write-up with him was like, I view him as I think I had like, so if I did bench starter bench to me is like a Jacoby Berset, you know, or Gardner Minshew, maybe a spot starter kind of type. I had him kind of in that tier, like where it was like, okay, there's a big chunk starter and bench like 80% and then like a 10%, maybe 15%.

So he's been better than that then? He's, I don't know. He's kind of been how he is. Okay. It's, Sean Payton's doing a lot of good work. That is pretty good last week. Yeah, you're right. He was. And Champagne's been in his bag. Like he really has.

The run game's good. The Broncos defense is sick. I think he is, he has improved from what he looked like week one, which was like, oh my God, you can't play this guy. To they chopped out play calls for him too. So they've stopped using motion so much. So again, that's good coaching. Hey, let's make sure you're on the straight and narrow. But from week two, I thought he was not going to make it after a rookie year. I thought we had a,

you know, just a Josh Rosen situation going on. Now I'm like, okay, you could be a tangible starter. So like he's reaching that kind of maybe middle tier that I thought he could reach. Josh Rosen. We're going to take a break and then we're going to do five favorites. All right. So I asked you to make a list of five things relating to the NFL season. I did not wanna know it was on the list and you can count them down from one through five or you could build suspense and go five through one.

So what is the list? I'm gonna build suspense and then, I feel like, yeah, I went with, because I'm so boring sometimes, I just went with things I'm enjoying in this NFL season. You're a positive guy. I try to be, I try to be. I keep my negativity to myself most of the time.

But yes, I want, because there's too much about how like sports are worse than they used to be and all that. And it's like, no, it's the opposite. We should enjoy what these freaks are doing every week. Yeah. And so I want things that I enjoyed, enjoy watching this season. And I'm starting with number five, and this is actually kind of a negative one. Um, this is telling the Cowboys.

I told you so that's something I've been enjoying this season going. You guys thought you can draft a two offense alignment and start them and not have a running back and not have a second pass catcher and you thought you can not have a defensive tackle that can stop the run. You thought Eric Kendricks could still play linebacker. And you thought you were contending and all in. And we told you so. And so that is something I've been enjoying

because it's just, it's as glaring as the light through Jerry World right now. All the warts that they have have just been popping. I know pimples pop, but you know, same thing. They just are just as shiny and as glossy as you can imagine. Even little things, not really a little thing. Dak Prescott gets hurt. Why aren't you playing Trey Lance?

You traded a fourth for him, just give him some run. You guys aren't winning the Super Bowl this year. Figure out what you got. Like, you know, like this is why you trade for him. The Mingo trade, Jonathan Mingo, you know, like day late and dollars short, but also on top of that Mingo, even if you look at his high weight speed stuff, he's like a gadget slot guy. You know who's best in the slot?

CD Lamb. Like why are you making that trade? Like you're making it worse. That's not actually a trade that's actually going to have a tangible effect on your team. So yeah, I guess. We liked him in the draft seven years ago. We got to get him. You know, that NFL tape doesn't matter. Hey, look at what he did at Ole Miss that last year.

I know. And guys like Maisie Smith, when he gets drafted, they're like, no, he's going to stop the run for us. It's like, he didn't do that in college. What makes you think he's going to get better at it in the NFL? They let a guy like Jonathan Hankins go. He's just a role playing nose tackle, but he was like their most significant player on the defense. And then they're just like, yeah, we don't need him actually. It was like, no, you do. You do need him on your defense.

So I guess this is kind of a negative thing, but it is something I've been enjoying pointing out. The other thing you didn't mention was the, and this never happens, but the over-under for them during this, during the summer actually moved down and went from 10 half wins to nine half wins. And cause everybody was like, this team sucks. Like, what are we doing? And you know, I can't even find nine wins in their schedule. And then there, you know, then that cowboy infrastructure moves in and said, no, no, actually, once they get CD signed and DAC signed, they stink.

So that's a good one. I think that's a good start. It is fun to say, I told you so to Dallas Cowboys. What's number four? It is. Number four is surprising defenses, improved defenses. This is a way. So this was my Eagles one, one of them, but teams like the Eagles, the Chargers,

the Broncos, the Lions, even teams like the Chaser, we had a really good defense last year or even better this year. The Bills who were expected to have a little drop off on defense. Who could have guessed that one? Yeah. And like they are just cooking and doing a great job there. So I'll start with the Eagles and this is more Vic Fangio going like, oh yeah, this is why everyone used to want to hire Vic Fangio. And they have a lot of good young players and new faces really stepping up for him.

And it's been really fun. Quinian Mitchell, their first round pick, corner from Toledo has been great. As a rookie, rookie corner is really hard. Seems like we've had good rookie corners this year, just in general. We have. And just really the last two, three years, rookies, it used to be like year two, you expect a corner to be like even baseline.

It's like a rookie in the NBA. Like even if they like average, you're like, hell yeah. Like that's good. But with Kuhnian, it's like, he's no, that's a good starter as a rookie and he takes it two guys, which is really fun. Like he can actually go against number ones. But then Cooper Dejean, who plays in the slot for them has been tremendous.

Like both of these two guys are going to be on the short list for defensive rookie of the year at the end of the year. And that was their first two picks and Dijon from the slot. It's a very important position in this defense. Um, how much they have to do in the run game, how much they have the blitz because of the soft kind of coverages they run and he has been awesome. Some huge plays on fourth down tackles, Jamar chase and space. When they played the bangles last week, he tackled CD lamb in space.

No one really does that to those two guys. And there he is as a rookie acting like it's nothing. So those two rookies, um, I mean, even other guys, Milton Williams is a guy that was a role player for them is now starting defensive lineman. He's in a contract here and he's, he's going to get paid. So like even a guy like that, Jalen Carter, a defensive tackle looks like a future all pro. He's fantastic.

And then Zach Bond, um, there was a linebacker retread that he's a former Wisconsin guy and mostly played as like an undersized pass rusher and Vic Fangio is like, ah, we're going to try you off ball. And he looks like a pro bowler. And I, it's like an inspired. So Vic Fangio is like, ah, we're going to try you off ball. And he looks like a pro bowler and I, it's like an inspired. So Vic Fangio is back. He's fully back, fully back. And maybe how we, how we hit a little magic this year, how we, how we, I was

getting a little like, okay, you know, like this, how we always nail it. And then this year it looks like he's just rejuvenated all of that. So yeah, you probably just jinx them because we're taping this before they play tonight, they're definitely giving up 45 tonight. I mean, but even like stat wise, they're seven and DVOA. Um, and then there's, so I look at a thing, um, success rate and explosive play rate and I combine them. People want me to call it sex rate, but then someone today said, let's call it suplex rate. And I was like, oh yeah, there we go. Uh, but they're,

they're second in that right now. And then like even the other defenses I mentioned, the Broncos defense is a lot of fun. Well, like out of the defenses you mentioned, I wasn't surprised by the Chargers, because their coaching situation last year combined, they had real talent, right? Yeah.

The Bills, the Bills have McDermott, they have the history at least. I didn't really understand how they were going to get all the players to pull it off, but they did. The Broncos, I don't get it all. The advanced stats for the Broncos are nuts. They're top five all over the place in all these key categories and they passed the eye test too.

I thought they did a great job against the Chiefs last week. It feels real to me. I don't get it. Yeah. They just have a lot of good, you know, like Patrick Surtan is, if he wasn't heard, he'd be up there with defense player of the year. Like we'd be talking about him. He's the best corner in the game.

He's incredible. But then like their other corner, Riley Moss is good. And it's not even just in the sense that he's, you know, the first white corner since Jason Sehorn, like he's a legitimately good player. Um, so it went from a bit to like, Oh no, no, he's just good. We don't have to make jokes anymore. But they, like, so they, those guys, they just play press, man, take it to them. Fans.

Joseph is really aggressive. He's a lot like he has some Wade Phillips to him. So it's a lot of like, okay, we're in man coverage. That guy's blocking blitz. Then they call green dogs and they are just so they just, they don't want you to breathe, but you have to really perform to beat them. Yeah. They're, they're outstanding.

I mean, they gave up 70 points in a game last year and now every metric, their top five and it's legit, it's very legit. Zach Allen has had a good year. Um, defensive lineman there, the fourth watt brother, uh, no, it's there. They're a very good unit. The char chargers too, has been very impressive. Yeah. Not surprising at all that they would be good, but I think they're even a little better than I thought. I was pretty bullish on them.

We'll see with the Bills. The Chiefs game is going to tell us a lot with the Bills because you know, there's been a couple games this year where it's like, oh, do they have a good defense? But then, you know, that might be like the good bad team on defenses. And I want to see like, can they shut down the chiefs? Cause I feel like the chiefs, you know, we're getting into it with million dollar picks later, but, uh, I just, it's chiefs has another dog. I'm just always buying every time. I'm just sorry.

Plus money, mo homes. Hell yeah. That's what you do. No. And the chiefs have, um, I'm trying to find a better term than this, but natural answers to, uh, the bills play all this cover too. Yeah. And then Mahomes now is like, okay.

You know, he's just going to nickel and dime. It might be a Juju Smith Schuster game as far as underneath throws, if he's healthy, it might be a Travis Kelsey decent game as well. Um, but the chiefs are, their offense is just so brutally efficient this year. It's just, you know, it's just, they're gonna take their five yard gains and you're gonna like it.

And that, I mean, that's, no defense has stopped it so far. So the Bills playing cover two, they're not very aggressive. It's kind of like, well, you need to be aggressive. You need to like take the fight to the Chiefs. Otherwise they're just gonna, they're fine taking these five, six yard gains and punching you in the face over and over.

Little Hopkins seven yarder. All right. What do you got for number three? Number three. And this is kind of tying, just even talking about the bills, but kind of a cop out here, cause I want to talk about a few things, AFC juggernaut quarterbacks. This is Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert. The, the big five.

And the big thing with that is Herbert's back. So back. I was worried. Unbelievably back. I was a little scared, especially since I have some dynasty shares in him that maybe got a little worried about it. But how about the vibes with Harbaugh and Herbert? Like they the buddy comedy with this is just amazing. It's genuine. And you can see Harbaugh really kind of,

did you see any of the videos from this past week? Oh, I think that should be like its own, I think NFL Network should just have like a three hour show of all the locker room speeches. I love all that stuff. I think it's such a fascinating kind of window into what the locker room is actually like. Who's the leader?

Who gives the speech at the end before they go, all right, everybody all in. Like, I just love that stuff. And how the game balls work. Like, are they giving it to the owner? Bom, bom. All right. But, you know, it's, but no, that's a very real thing. Like who speaks after the coach who, like even that Harbaugh video,

they heard the Chargers video. They're like, Hey, Herbert. He's like, Justin, just talk to us. And then Herbert kind of gave the little like two second speech, which is perfect. But again, it's like a little, you know, microcosm of like what each locker room is. No, that's such a great point. But one of the things I did with over unders this year, which I'm doing really well on this year is I just, I realized I wasn't putting enough thought into good coaches versus bad coaches. And even something like the Chargers situation where it's like, well, I don't know, they're over-unders eight and a half, but Harbaugh, and maybe it's a little too high. And I'm like, they're going from Staley to Harbaugh.

That's got to be worth five wins. It just has to. There's no way it's not. We've seen it happen over and over again. Same thing with Dan Quinn not being Ron Rivera. I don't know how many wins that's worth, but it's got to be worth a couple. Like just, just having an energy sometimes works. Like just, or just being competent. Like with Harbaugh, it's not like they're doing anything crazy. They're just competent. They don't, they don't get penalized. They don't turn the ball over. All their scheme stuff is sound. The defensive coordinator is a star, Jesse Minter.

Yeah, he's not going to be there. He's getting fired. He's gone very soon. Yeah. They get him for another year. It's a miracle. But again, sometimes it's just having a high baseline. And when you have a dude at quarterback, that's kind of enough. Like even talking about the Broncos with Bo Nicks, Bo Nicks isn't making mistakes and the rest of the team is competent. So it's like, yeah, now they might be a playoff team because they're just not idiots. Like they're above the idiot line, the Mendoza line of coaching.

Do you buy into the sideline stuff? Like do you watch the sidelines when you watch games? Because that's another thing I find myself doing more and more every year. And the Chargers, the Chargers have a really good sideline stuff, like do you watch the sidelines when you watch games? Cause that's another thing I find myself doing more and more every year. Like, and the chargers, the chargers have a really good sideline, like the reactions. Oh yeah. You know what I mean? Like somebody fights and they get, it's a third of nine and the guy fights and gets the extra half yard and you'll see like 15 chargers like jumping out in the field,

getting fired up. And I'm like, ah, that's a good sign. That's real. That, well, that's what turned me on to, I was always kind of an optimist with them, but Dan Campbell's lines was his first year with them was even they're getting their faces battered in every week. That sideline was into it. Yeah.

Shanahan's first year and with the 49ers in 2017, bad team and defense is trying to tackle everyone, everyone's going nuts about touchdown you also There's buy-in like or just being locked in like you can see sometimes when someone scores And how other players react to that because they're aware that that call was happening Like they're aware that that design was meant to do that So again, it's just reading in between the lines of like are they locked in are they not? I mean you watch you just watch the bears.

You can just tell like, oh, okay. It was like really dramatically noticeable. And on the flip side, Arizona, where you watch Arizona, you're like, whoa, this team have good chemistry. It's first time in 10 years. I was, I was, I could segue to my number two, the Cardinals. Let's hear it.

It is just, they're my number two, the Cardinals. Let's hear it. Just there. They're my number two thing for this list. The thing that I'm enjoying most is just the Cardinals in general. Every aspect of the Cardinals I enjoy watching because they are exactly what we're talking about here. Everybody's locked in every, I mean, Marvin Harrison, Jr. is fist pumping after a run for a touchdown where he has to make a block. Yeah.

So we got, that's the number, uh, number four pick overall, who's probably and juniors fist pumping after a run for a touchdown where he has to make a block. Yeah. So we got, that's the number, uh, number four pick overall, who's probably been a star since he was 15, they're doing the dirty work and celebrating someone else scoring. Yeah. And then I look over, no offense to the guy, uh, cause I really liked him. Roman Dunes day for the bears. Something happens.

He's like, all right. And which is not how Roman Dunezay was in college. Right. It just kind of speaks to what the buy-in is for each of these teams and the, or each of these players in the units. But yeah, thank you for segmenting me to the Cardinals because on the last show I was on, it's pretty optimistic about them. And this, this hopefully was what I was talking about, but offense,

like they're looking like a top five offense. Were you expecting them to be this physical? That's the thing that I was surprised by. That's what they bought into. Like they're looking like a top five offense. But were you expecting them to be this physical? That's the thing that I was surprised by. That's what they bought into. Last year, the offensive line played way above, punched way above their weight. Having James Connor kind of sets the tone too. But just they're buying with the tight ends.

You know, they had Elijah Higgins last year in Trey McBride, and then they drafted Tip Ryman in the third round. And I was like, oh, okay, I see what you guys are leaning into. Like we're not getting like finesse tight ends. We're actually getting like brawlers that can actually do stuff. And they drafting Paris Johnson, Jr. They're left tackle from last year. Um, they're all tone setter types.

So even their other receiver, uh, Michael Wilson is, he's big and will do dirty work and that's why I was pretty optimistic about him was they're doing a lot of everything was sound like conceptually and sound, but in very traditional in some senses, but just enough modernizations, you know, it's like watching screen for the first time. It's like, Oh yeah, this is a slasher movie. Oh, okay. But you're doing the meta thing.

Okay. That's cool. Like they just do a little bit of motion, a little bit of tweaks and inverting roles, they kind of their own, they do a little bit of everything in a little bit of tweaks and inverting roles. They kind of their own, they do a little bit of everything in the run game, but it's really sound. They're not running against bad boxes. Um, Kyler is playing fantastic right now. So our friend Mina, you kind of threw him into the MVP conversation.

Like she was like tipping a waiter. I was surprised. I wasn't ready to go there with Kyler cause I've seen them win games where he didn't have to do that much. But did, where do you sit on that? Do you see that? I, man, I mean, he's, he's got a better argument than most. I'll put it that way. I have those AFC, the five AFC quarterbacks that I just mentioned, basically as my top five. So I think Kyler would probably be the one, you know, next, next one in, you know, first four out, I mean, Kyler QBR is just one stat, but Kyler's second.

And the NFL right now in QBR Lamar Jackson's one, Kyler's two and Joe Burrows three, uh, you know, like he, and this is the most he's like playing real quarterback. They give him, you know, this is, this is kind of continuing my Cliff guard Kingsbury offense stuff. Was that as a high floor, but the ceiling I think is lower because of what they can get to and what they ask of their players with Kyler and Drew Petsing, their office coordinator, they said, no, you're playing quarterback. Like we're putting you under center.

You are killing plays. You were pointing out who, who has who in protection. And there's some rough stretches early in this year, even last year, even some of the quote unquote good games. Now I would say the last like three, four weeks, it's like, see it like you can see the confidence really bubbling with him. He's been under center 30%, 30% of the time this year, the first four and a half years of his career, he was under center for 125 drop backs total. His first four and a half years. He's been under center for 55 drop backs this year, the first four and a half years of his career, he was under center for 125 drop backs total in his first four and a half years.

He's been under center for 55 drop backs this year. So almost he's already, you know, almost getting a half. Yeah. So 125 in four and a half years under Cliff Kingsbury and half a year Drew Petsing, 55 just this year. That's real core. That ties into the run game that is tying into their play action games really good and like when I mentioned their little tweaks they do they're kind of modern I would say modern just understanding what to do

like a bootleg like it's just a normal bootleg that everyone runs usually you run it with zone where everybody steps the same way you remember the old Texans Gary Kupiak videos they would show what they do and it's not new but they're one of the few teams that leans into it, they pull a guard when they run a bootleg. And most teams try to avoid doing that because it can get a little dicey up front and everything, but they're well coached. They do only against the right fronts and it ties in with what their run game is because they pull so many guys. And once they pull that, it attracts the linebackers. You should watch it against the Jets. It was comical.

The Jets linebackers are sprinting with it because the good guards pulling. So again, they're confident that they can do this little tweak. But again, it sets up everything because they're going under center because they're running the ball well. They can get to that stuff

and it turns into 15 yard gashes to Marvin Harrison or to Trey McBride who Trey McBride's also playing like a top three tight end. So that also helps too. But it's just a, and then shoot, the defense is fun. Their defense is improved. I mean, they were underdogs at home against the Jets last week.

Insanely. And I thought that was one of the weirdest lines of the year. Like when House and I were doing the Lennard picks, House was like afraid of it. Cause it was like, what's going on with this line? These two teams are not the same level. No. And I know I looked at the injury report after that because I remember being like,

did I forget someone's hurt? Right. Like is Kyler out or something? But no. No one watches the Cardinals and then we get updates about Jets warmups. We watch them because we're on the West coast and there's three games in the, in the one at one 25 spot. What's your number one?

Well, and this is tying into a little bit with the Cardinals are doing and the, and other teams have kind of mentioned, but it's the run game and the running back Renaissance through this here. This is what is juiced me up about the NFL this year. The Cardinals are a part of this in their run game, but this is not only just the investment teams have made in running backs, which we've seen with Derek Henry, Saquon Barkley, even other guys that were signed

over the years. James Connor was a free agent addition for the Cardinals. We go one after another, Josh Jacobs with the Packers, but also the first rounders teams have made on the running backs have been paying dividends. Bijon Robinson, Jameer Gibbs with the Packers, but also the first rounders teams that made on the running backs have been paying dividends. Bijan Robinson, Jameer Gibbs with the Lions, all these teams with defense. You gotta throw Najee in there.

I would throw him in. I think Najee's been pretty good. Najee went from, I actually, it was funny. I actually was like, he should not be getting the ball anymore and it feels like, when I sat down on my podcast, after that he has just run harder than he ever has in his career. You just went nuts. They inspired him. Right, yeah is just run harder than he ever has in his career.

Right. Yeah. Just me, you know, football 301, check it out. But, uh, but the, the Steelers though, they're part of this too. I've been always a Arthur Smith apologist. And now with their, their offensive line, uh, Zach Frazier, their center is legitimately one of the best rookies in the NFL, like at any position. And then they have another rookie, right guard Mason McCormick, who's playing well.

Isaac Sumolo, their left guard has come back from injury. Like now you can feel that kind of that beef coming back with their run game, which has been a lot of fun along with Russell Wilson moon balls, but the Bill's run game is really good. They, they, I've been calling it spread bully because they'll spread people out or, and then they'll just run it down your throat. Um, they, and they, James Cook has, has done a lot better as being kind of more of a sound running back.

Ray Davis is really punching them people in the face and it's really just taking advantage of defenses are terrified of Josh Allen. So they're, uh, bills are just like, all right, we'll take six yards. Well, you're also seeing bad teams like Carolina last week. We're like, we suck. Let's just run Hubbard over and over and over again. Maybe this will work and it actually worked. Yeah, they're on the short list here, but, uh, Ravens, I already mentioned them.

The Eagles really realizing, oh yeah, Saquon Barkley is good. Let's just get under center and the ball. Uh, no, the Panthers is a great example. They invested in their guards and that was to help out Bryce Young and keep the pocket, the interior of the pocket clean. But then now it's paying dividends with the, you know, the Truba Hubber and then they can just pound the rock 20 times. I mean, this really, the defenses are giving you this.

So you have to invest in it. So what does this mean for the drafts? Is this a running back going to be the same kind of assets they were? Or are we going to flip this? I think it's more, it's still going to be like maybe, well, this class is of course, it's kind of a, you have Ash and Je Genety from Boise State, who I have number eight on my big board. I just did a podcast with Dan Bruegler who from the athletic, he has him at number six overall in his big board. He's incredible. I don't know if you've watched him yet, but he is

one of the most fun watches in any sports. So yeah, Ashton Genety running back from Boise State, but then there's a lot of day two backs and you, you, it's just a difference now where these guys have to play all three downs. The only one that only star running back that doesn't do pass protection is Derek Henry, but that's Derek Henry. He can get away with it because he's six five 250 and we can give them the ball 40 times. So we're kind of getting to this new thing where it's like, yeah, you need, you

can't just go, Oh, running backs don't matter in the sense that, yeah, or I'm sorry. You can say running backs don't matter. Don't take them in the first round, but you can't just ignore the position. Like Dallas state. You have to still, like Dallas state, you still have to invest. Look at the Vikings who like Sam Darnold's had a good year, you know, turning into a pumpkin a little bit right now. Defense has got a lot of headlines with Brian Flores.

They also took Aaron Jones. They signed Aaron Jones. Totally changed their run game because he's explosive and, and now they don't have to rely on another 20 yard Justin Jefferson play, okay, Aaron Jones can maybe give us a 15 yard game that we didn't have before. So you have to invest in these positions that even, it used to be kind of a throwaway, but now I think day two, it's going to turn into like, oh no, we got to take another guy.

Even if we have one, we need two, if we're going to really invest in this game. So. It's why I haven't given up on the Dolphins yet. Just because nine and eight is going to be in the seventh seed, but I, and they didn't even run the ball that well, gets the Rams. Cause the Rams front has been pretty good.

I think the Pats are going to have trouble with it this week. But I think they're going to be able to run the ball as it gets colder, which is unusual for our Miami team. Miami team, right? Yeah, they have a bunch of these. But no, that's a great case. Wait, I have a question based off your thing. Yeah. Do you have a favorite random non-star arrow pointing up,

running back as we head toward fantasy playoffs. Are you buying the guy in Denver? Big waiver. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I am. I was pretty high on him in this draft. He was one of my more favorite backs.

Non-standard. Oh man. Well, Tyrone Tracy, everyone's got him now. No, he's already happened. Yeah, he's already swooped up by everybody. God. No, are you a Braylon Allen stock buried in like your shoebox up in your attic? I do.

I do. As he's a Wisconsin guy. Yeah. I've been hearing about how young he is for about five years now. Yeah. No, he, uh, oh, Rochon Johnson made me for the bears as maybe just a flyer because I don't know, like they invest in Deandre Swift, but it's kind of like Deandre Swift's making a lot of mistakes.

So like in just other things and Rochon Johnson's a little safer. So maybe he kind of takes a few more touches there. So maybe that's one, uh, you know, kind of looking on, you know, the kind of running backs. Yeah. If you're throwing some dark throws, Ray Davis is the other one for the bills, but he's already probably been screwed by a lot of teams.

I like him a lot. To me, running backs, it's like seeing a good-looking actor or actress or just hearing a good voice and you just know immediately. I feel like with running backs, you know right away. It's like, oh, that guy's good. That's it. It's the easiest position to scout. Yeah.

It's the one where you- Like Ray Davis, you're like, oh, that guy's good. Oh yeah, he'll help the Bills. Oh, he keeps getting positive yards. This is good. Yeah. No, and in this class too, in next year's draft class, there's just a ton of day two guys. So there's kind of a rejuvenation of that position that's happening right now. Alright, Nate Tice, before we go, I'll give you 75 seconds to not panic about the Timberwolves.

Oh no. Oh, I'm panicked. They need a players only meeting. They miss Kyle Anderson. You know, they miss him so bad. My guy's slow mo. They really miss him right now because he was such a glue guy for them as far as just the second unit defense and just also auxiliary ball handler and all that. I still have faith, but I was also wanting to make the freaking semis for the in-season tournament so I can watch them here in Vegas. Can we keep the NBA Cup? Can you guys focus on the NBA Cup so I can watch you here in Vegas? But no, I am a little worried because there, there's a little bit too much of

this kind of lackadaisicalness, uh, especially on the defensive end and Rudy Gobert has kind of said, oh yeah, it's on me, but you know, that's Rudy. Um, and it doesn't help when Carl Anthony Towns is dropping 40 something, uh, in New York, even though they lost, uh, still, you know, uh, that, that, that doesn't help. But so I have a little bit more panic, even though I'm still optimistic about this team, because I just love Anthony Edwards so, so much. I said this on Tuesday night's pod,

because we did a pod after NBA Cup, and I was saying with the Timberwolves, it's early, you don't want to panic. Edwards is obviously better than he was last year, so that's a bonus. With that said, I just liked the team from March, April, May more. I thought they were so unique. I didn't really know what the ceiling was.

It was, but they were a one of one. There was nobody else like them in the league. And now I just feel like they're another team. Oh, that is, it's one of my biggest beliefs in sports is you got a zag when everyone else is zigging and going, we need swing. You know, we need all these swing guys, need all these wings. And they were like, no, we're getting three centers. And we're going to just go down your throat because you're like a, you know,

triple option team in college. Shoot. We only faced this once a year. Like, oh God, all right. How do we defend this? Oh God, they're so unique. And yeah, in a playoff time and you get the repeat matchups. But the thing is who's still the, you know,

well, other than the Thunder, the Nuggets, they had the best counter for the Nuggets. They could just keep throwing size at them. One after guy, Jokic and all the guys. I think that Dallas series really, well, it's two things. One is financially, it's just so much harder to keep anything together. And it was clearly a financial move first,

but I also think that Dallas beat them in a way that made them think like, all right, we solved Denver, but now we have Dallas and OKC to worry about for the rest of the decade. And maybe we should zag again. But I just, I don't like when you're doing something that, you know, you're being mentioned with some of the great teams in the last 35 years of the league at, and now you just seem like you're an ordinary

team defensive. I know they're not ordinary because they have Gobert and they have Edwards. McDanos is playing better. But it feels different. I'm not going to panic until 30 games. I know you're an actual fan, so you're panicking now. No, I don't. Well, for me, my NBA fandom really starts after the all-star game.

Because that's what I'm like, it's perfect. Superbowl happens. NBA all-star game. Okay. Now I can start paying attention to other things, but, uh, now they're on a lot more national TV games and so I can't avoid them. And so, yeah, I do have some doubt, but I am an optimist overall. I do trust Edwards. I do trust Finch. So you're rooting against Towns, like a scorned lover, and I am an optimist overall. I do trust Edwards. I do trust Finch. I trust him. So you rooting against Towns like a scorned lover

and he's on a new team. You're just like, I hope that guy goes two for 14 every night. I wouldn't say it's rooting against, but I would just say, you know, Knicks fans get ready for some bad fouls at the worst times and get ready for some frustrating. You're in the honeymoon phase. Get ready for some frustrating turnovers where you're like, weren't you a coach's kid?

Yeah. Uh, you know, get ready for those on top of the moments of brilliance, where you watch one of the best offensive big men you'll ever see in most skilled guys. But yeah, he's, he's a very frustrating player. I'll tell you, Carl, I've had some swear words, Carl Anthony, to Alan Spencer myself while watching him. Nate Tice. great to see you. You can read and follow Nate through the whole Yahoo Sports Network.

Great to see you. Thanks for being here on Drake May Island with me. Thanks for having me. I'll look over at your yard and let me know if you ever need sugar. All right. We're bringing House back to do million dollar picks. Before we do that, it's time for today's player bundle segment presented by our friends at State Farmhouse. Yeah.

It's tough to crown the best play in football history. No one can deny the magic when the right two players work together to pull off the unexpected. Like for me, Brady and Edelman during the comeback against the Seahawks that culminated in the Malcolm Butler game. Little Edelman Brady magic. What do you have for in Washington history? It's gotta involve John Riggins.

It's gotta involve Joe Theismann. Joe Theismann handed off to John Riggins. Super Bowl 17, 1983, the diesel, the hogs. There we go, that's the one. I remember as a kid, John Riggins, who everyone was saying was a character. And when we were kids, we didn't know what that meant,

but it could have gone in a variety of directions. But one of the reasons he was a character was he got the mohawk haircut once. Remember? Well, like years before on another team. He also told the Supreme Court justice to loosen up. He did. He also did that. Loosen up, Sandy baby. He was a true Aides character and also had a little synergy with Joe Heisman.

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Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state coverage options are selected by the customer availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility. Vary by state. All right, we're going to talk some million dollar picks. I'm still upset about what happened last week. We basically split last week. And one of the reasons we, even though I felt like we were all over the slate, and we couldn't figure out a like we were all over the slate, uh, and we

couldn't figure out a good way to bet on the lions. So we did the lions first half lions game that lost. Yeah. We really liked the dolphins and we tried to get cute. We did dolphins plus four and a half with the over 42 and a half. And of course they, they just figured out a way to not get to 40 points in that game. Uh, I don't know what the Rams are doing. So we lost those two, but we hit Eagles chargers, tees, we had

Steelers, Washington, we had cards jets. Like, I feel like I have a nice feel for the slate and I like this week. And I don't know, do you want to do Chiefs bills last or first? Let's do it first. Let's go ahead and just, you know, sort of crush this because I'm having a hard time with this game. I'm going to confess to you right off the top. It feels like a bill spot to me.

It feels like a great spot for the bills at home coming off of the last two seasons, regular season wins against the chiefs. Um, you know, it, it, it, it matters. Now look with where the bills are with only two losses, it's kind of crucial in terms of the seating for the AFC. So that would be the argument for, um, the chiefs going all out here. The chiefs are not walking in here, um, looking to concede anything to the bills, but, um, I don't know. It just feels like a bill spot to me.

As in a bill's minus two and a half, you'd want to bet that spot and bet against Patrick homes as an underdog, even though his, uh, what is he 13 one and one as an underdog career? No, under no circumstances am I betting against all right? I just wanted to make sure I thought you I didn't know if you're a buzz House or I just did heroin house because we're there's no way we're getting it's Patrick Bahamas. No no no no no chance Absolutely no chance, so I do think it's probably gonna be a close game And I was looking at a couple of spots to bump that from a plus two and a half

to either a plus three and a half or a plus four and a half. I think the Chiefs can also win. It's a course. It's no, I'm just like, I'm saying like we could just bet the money line, but the bills, it's a more important game for them for nine different reasons. That's what I think. That part worries me. I wonder if the Chiefs a month from now

when they have all their weapons back will be a slightly different thing, but I just like the football matchup for them with the type of defense the Bills have versus what the Chiefs have just been good at are these long drives, third and fours, third and sevens, just moving the chains, moving the chains, and I think you can do that against the bet and then go deep on them.

I think the fact that, uh, Baltimore looks so good against that Buffalo D that time. I don't think that's not nothing like when they went against a really good quarterback, they got kind of torched. So. Yeah. What scares me like inside the X's and the O's is how hurt Buffalo is at the receiver position. And if they try and establish the run, then you're, then you're in trouble because the Chiefs have a dominant run defense.

Can Kate don't can Kate might not play. Yep. And even if he plays this hurt, Amara Cooper's hurt. I don't know what's going to, we're taping this on a Thursday. I don't think this is the right version of the Bills team. Right. To, cause I think realistically, you need to get to 27 points to beat this Chiefs team.

It does seem like it. Make them put up points back. But anyway, there's a couple things I have with Chiefs plus three and a half or Chiefs plus four and a half tied to the Lions. Well, let me ask you this before you do it. Why aren't we just auto teasing the chiefs, taking the cheese from two and a half up to eight and a half.

I looked at that. Couldn't really find the second team that I felt awesome about. Like you suggested the dolphins. I don't trust the dolphins. I don't trust this Jackie Mike McDaniel. I don't want to put him in a tease. I'll confess. I've had some misgivings my own self. I don't want, I just, Tua,

like when Tua trying to tackle that dude on the interception and it seems like he got hit in the, I just don't want any part of that. So one of the things I was thinking was you could take the Chiefs to plus four and a half. You could do the Detroit first half game bet against the Jaguars, who they're favored by 13 and a half against Mac Jones. That's minus one or two.

You could do chiefs plus three and a half lions minus two and a half against the Jags. That's minus one 19 basically. Maybe that's by that extra half point. Lions just have to win by three. Yeah. Okay. Is that going to win in Detroit? Nope. No, sir. Is that going to win in Detroit? Nope.

No, sir. No, he is not. He's not winning. Okay. So we'll mark that down. Next one. Both of us like the Broncos are home for the Falcons and this line is under three and it's a gift from the gods. Denver's defense, first yards per play, second in sacks, third in QB hits, they're top 10 against the run and the pass. Atlanta's defense, 32nd in sacks, 31st in QB hits, 24th against the pass, 28th against third down.

Here's my point. I think Denver's D can chase Kirk a little bit, make some plays. And I think Bo Nicks is going to have time to throw and he feels like he's getting a little bit better every week. Nate Tice talked about it. It's turned into like, he's a serviceable starter. They can run the ball. I like this rookie that's going to play for them that everybody's grabbing, including in our keeper league.

I grabbed them. Um, Estine, Esstine, whatever his name is. Yeah. It seems like they're excited about him, but I think they can run the ball. I don't think the Falcons are good. How about that? Not only do I share this opinion, I think the Broncos, I'm going to be looking at some alt lines to lay. We did that last week. Well, no, I'm going to lay extra to get some juice on lay for Denver. Well, no, I'm gonna lay extra to get some juice on it for Denver, because I think they might beat the hell

out of Atlanta. It's Atlanta to Denver, the altitude, it's outdoors. So the version of the Atlanta offense that has been successful, the wins that they've collected, that's not gonna be, and I just think this Denver defense is going to be getting up the field and into Kirk Cousins and making him uncomfortable. And Bo Nix has shown us, you know, he's got a string of, uh, over 200 yard games. And, and a couple of touchdowns.

I mean, I think it's a, it's a great spot for Denver. Plus Sean Payton is not going to lose three straight games. I mean, I think it's a great spot for Denver. Plus, John Payton's not going to lose three straight games. I mean, they they lost to Baltimore. Fair enough. They lost to the Chiefs in a game they had won until the last play of the game. So the Chiefs cheated. Let's be honest. What the hell is that? Have you seen some of the videos of that? Are you allowed to put 19 guys on one side of the line

and just knock the left guard flying backwards with seven guys? I thought we outlawed that. That's the A-side team right there. That's the A-side team. So Atlanta on the road, they've had four road games so far. We two, Philly, game was over. Philly fucked it up and Atlanta scored at the end one by one.

Carolina, they killed. Tampa, barely won. The game was over, Philly fucked it up, and Atlanta scored at the end one by one. Carolina, they killed. Tampa, barely won, easily could have lost, and then New Orleans, they lost. You go look at through their wins, and it's just like, they easily could be three, they have six wins, they also easily could be like three and seven.

There's three plays away from being a three and seven team I I just don't think they're impressive. I thought that New Orleans lost was awful. I Don't think there's any difference between the these two teams in terms of You know power ranking and all the rest of it. I prefer Denver me too. I think Denver's like oh Sorry, you lost to Baltimore and Kansas City. Like I still feel like they're- In back to back weeks.

Yeah, they're the good, bad team. I'm in on Denver, so Denver minus two and a half, we'll mark that. I hesitate to bring this one up, but Colts plus three and a half against the Jets. It feels like a unique chance to bet against a downtrodden jet steam that has sucked the soul and life and spirit out of the fans, out of the city, out of the players and the team.

The Rogers thing, Tim Keown had a thing on ESPN, he had a whole story about the last four weeks of Rogers. You read that and it's like, this is bad. Rodgers saying Tim Keown had a thing on ESPN, he had a whole story about the last four weeks of Rodgers. You read that and it's like, this is bad. And it was not a lot of smoking gun stories, but it's just like, this sucks. This is gone, it couldn't have gone worse. Their season's over.

I don't think they like playing with Rodgers. They built the whole team around him and he's banged up and probably broken. And then you have the Colts who were getting points, the jets, um, they're 30th. Rushing the Colts. That's the one way to beat them is to run on them. The jets are bad at running the ball as anyone has. Brice Hall knows. Um, I just feel like the Colts can get on track, but Anthony Richards

is the start Richardson is starting. So here, here's the thing. I just feel like the Colts can get on track, but Anthony Richards, the start Richardson is starting. So here, here's the thing. And I do want to, to, to lean into the Colts, but it would be with caution. There is a bet out there that I think is a tremendous bet and it's Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. I think he might run for a hundred yards. Like I'm not, I'm not suggesting anybody wager on that, but I think that the commitment that Shane Steichen

is going to make to getting Richardson's confidence back, the thing that he is best at is moving the football with his legs. They are going to give that man the green light. And the thing that we have seen with this Jets defense again and again and again is they are not tough. That is not a tough defense. They don't like to take on big,

what we saw in terms of the Cardinals running the ball right down the Jets throat, the 50 yard play, you know, right, right at right before halftime with the Cardinals against the Jets. That's who that's the identity of this Jets defense. I love the Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. That's my favorite. One of my favorite bets of the weekend. So they're plus three and a half. What have I offered you? Colts minus two and a half parlayed with Anthony Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards is plus 366.

I mean, am I allowed to say fuck yes on this podcast? I mean, you know the answer to that. Because... What are you talking about? I love that one. The other way to do that is just do the Colts money line plus 176. That's plus 309.

Where do you think Aaron Rodgers is going to go in the Trump administration? He's going to be the ambassador Where is he going to be the ambassador? The ambassador to He's going to be the ambassador of Ask is he going to be an ambassador? The ambassador to, he's going to be the ambassador of ask a loose. So it's a drug. Come to Mexico.

Is he going to South America? Turning into my dad. I was I was going to be the ambassador of I was going to be the ambassador. Oh, they could send him to Tahiti. Where's he want to go? He's got, he's definitely going to get a job in the administration. So Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over 38 and a half is plus two Oh nine.

Let's do that. That's fun. Plus three and a half. It's a field goal game. Okay. You think that's fun? Yeah, that's a good one. Plus every time Richardson, the fun thing about that. That's fun. Plus three and a half. It's a field goal game. Okay. Don't you think that's fun? Yeah, that's a good one. Plus every time Richardson, the fun thing about that is it is fun to watch

him run. You sure you don't want to do the plus three 66 where they win by two and a half. Two in a small, you know, like we did last week, we did, we put 10 grand on some ridiculous, both the giants and somebody else to win. Oh, San Francisco. That lost. Those two teams. All right. By the way, I don't feel like the Colts are that bad. I thought Flacco, and I thought it was the right move

to start him. Flacco was terrible. Yeah. It's officially over. I don't know what happened to him in the Browns for those five, six weeks, but he's back to being the Joe Flacco we remembered and love betting against. I tried to do my Ersei impression on Monday because I'm so on our East Coast Bias podcast.

I'm 1000% positive that Ersei after Richardson tapped out and said that in that press conference, he came downstairs and, and, and get this guy, this guy, I can't have this guy. He's a winner. Yeah. He just got back. I can't have a critter running my team. Shane, you got to get this guy. And, and the T is like, okay. Okay.

You it's your, it's your team. It's your team. It wasn't the right football decision. It wasn't the right franchise decisions, but you know, they did what the owner wanted and now we're back to the football plan and Shane Steichen has the football plan. So we're doing the right thing here. Next one. I think we are in violent agreement. Chargers against the Bengals. Chargers laying minus one and a half. Bengals in a must win spot. A very popular public team.

Explosive offense, fourth passing. Burrows being a fantasy God. And yet I love the Chargers. Shay, is this our argue pick? I don't know. Here, here, but the concern is burrowed. These nuts were burrowed. These nuts. He're burrowed these nuts.

He is on a heater. He's been incredible and those weapons are unlike any weapons that the chargers have seen to this point. Yeah, but we don't even know if Higgins is playing. It's still he's got the red flag next to him. Believe me, I have him in fantasy. It's still. He's got the red flag next to him. Believe me, I have him in fantasy. It's questionable. And they can't run the ball, the Bengals.

They can't run the ball. Cannot run the ball. This is the Bengals season, because they are behind both the Chargers and the Broncos. And if they lose to either one of these teams, that's it, season's over. They can't climb take seasons not over Why I don't think it's over if they lose the game

Give me the give me the the rundown. I think nine wins is gonna get the seven seeded in the AFC Right now they have Four wins They lose this Chargers game. They have at home Pittsburgh week 13, at Dallas, at Tennessee. Those are going to be two wins. Now we're at six. Yeah.

Home Cleveland, that's seven. They get to play Denver week 17. That's eight. And then they're at Pittsburgh week 18. So it's not necessarily, they just have to split the Pittsburgh games, beat Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, Denver, and then get to nine wins. They need these teams,

they need the Chargers and the Broncos both to fall off. Yeah, but they could take care of Denver by themselves in week 17. Look, it wouldn't be great if they lost this game. I'm not saying it would be, but. The reason I like the Chargers is because very quietly, Herbert is healthy. He's throwing the ball downfield.

They have vertical weapons. And Herbert is, speaking of being in his bag, there's a physicality to him. You forget that he's a tough SOB. He's 6'6". That big boy has played hurt a lot in his career. We've seen him take shots and he's taking on the personality of Harbaugh a little bit. I like this little bit of a swagger that I'm seeing out of them.

I like the idea of the Chargers here. I want to just be cautious. That's all. They have six wins. They're playing, but this is the hardest part of their schedule home Since he home Baltimore at Atlanta at Casey so realistically they probably have to go two and two to really feel good about the playoffs, but I This is this is where I've landed. I

Think the line is two points off. I think they should be three and a half point favorites Wow What have the Bengals done to deserve anything? They're poorly coached. Their defense is awful. They have four. Their defense sucks. They have four wins against teams that if you add up all their victories. Yeah.

Nine victories. There are four wins that come against teams with nine total wins. Their defense. 31st in the red zone. Feels worse. 29th on third down. 27th on first down. Giving them up. 23rd against the pass. I just think

I think the Chargers are legit good. And then I'll throw this at you. On one sideline. Jim Harbaugh. On the other side. Zach Taylor. I just think they have the advantages. And this is gonna be a rare Chargers home game where there's not gonna be 30,000

of the other team's fans in the building because I feel like there's gonna be 30,000 Beggles fans there. I think people like this Chargers team. There's an energy around them right now. And I think Herbert's playing great. And they can run the ball. I trust their receivers. Their receivers are getting open.

Then they're down. So I think to me, this game reminds me of Arizona jets last week, where I just feel like the lines off about last week. I thought that Cardinals line was, was idiotic. And I think this line's idiotic. The Chargers also have, uh, Greg Roman, uh, in their mix who has all that experience from his time with, with Baltimore going up against this, this Bengals team, you know,

going up against this Bengals defense. Yeah. I, I, I like the, I like the Chargers. This seems like a very public bet where people look at it and they go, well, the Bengals need the game and Burroughs playing well, so they're going to get it. And I don't think that's a good reason. The Chargers are a really good football team. I don't think they're on that Chiefs, Ravens, Bills level, but I think they're a notch below and I think they'd be a really dangerous seven point

underdog in a round one playoff game. How about this? I was looking for a possible angle to tease the Bengals, but then you look at the Chargers wins, they're all by margin. All of the Chargers wins have been at least seven points. They're keeping ten says. Yeah, their defense gets better as the game goes along.

They choke the life out of you. Yeah. All right. All right, so here's the game I really wanna dive into. Raven Steelers, it's in Pittsburgh. Ravens are favored by three. Steelers are seven and two. Mike Tomlin is a home underdog.

Whole bunch of reasons to be like, ah, of course we've taken the stewards all year. I think we've taken them six times a million dollar picks. We have a bunch of futures with them. The thing that worries me house. This isn't the type of team that should succeed against Baltimore. Because Baltimore, 30 second against the pass, right? You want to throw on them. You want to do what Burrow did last week. Pittsburgh wants to win like they beat you guys in Washington last week.

Where they want to run the ball, pound the ball, control the clock. Then every once in a while throw deep down one of the sidelines. But win with defense. That's not how you beat Baltimore. You beat Baltimore by throwing the ball in them because they suck on pass defense. And you have Pittsburgh's 26th, but they're passing offense. Their defense, they're top five in a whole bunch of stuff.

First down, run, red zone, hits, turnovers. But Baltimore's offense is first in basically anything, everything. And it just feels to me like Baltimore is gonna be able to control this game and maybe they'll end up Pittsburgh going up splitting the series, but I don't like the spot for Pittsburgh. I think this is a bad matchup for them. So how do you see it?

So we just need to understand what we're walking into, right, because underdogs in this series, which other team is the underdog 10, one and one against the spread nine and three straight up in the last 12 batches. So just that each of the last five times that the Sears have been underdogs, they have won outright. Uh, and over history, these two guys, Tomlin and Harbaugh, the underdog, they faced each other 32 times. The underdog is 23, six and three against the spread.

It's just insane. Pittsburgh, the underdog, when it, when it, the, the line is three points or more, 18, two and three between these two guys. So that's what you're up against when you're walking into this. But look, here's the thing. I'm not going to make the whole handicap about one guy. It's just a big deal for Pittsburgh to not have Alex Heisman because the, what he brings to them pass rush wise.

I got it out. A pass pass rush. I got it out. Rush Collinsworth. Yeah. He brought a balance. Right. Now that balance, cause we've seen it where we've, there's been guys missing,

help it was missing for a couple games And it felt like they were back and now it's on they're not back anymore There is not a defense on earth that can slow down this Ravens team It seems so you have to believe that there's a significant advantage Which is crazy for the Steelers at in special teams. We, you know, it's a rarity to talk about Baltimore being behind anybody else in special teams, but they are highly mediocre, highly average because Justin Tucker's fallen off a little bit.

Their punter shanked a punt against the Raiders and that is how the Raiders came back in week two. Yeah. Uh, and the Steelers are doing what they do. I mean, they're third DVOA on a special team. So maybe it's a stay away. I'd like a teaser leg. Oh, come on.

To me, I would tease the Steelers up to nine and tease the Chiefs up to eight and a half and just have these classic fist fight, almost like Jake Paul and Mike Tyson, a classic heavyweight brawl, and make sure you're getting enough points on both sides of it, and then just let those, these teams do what they do, which is play close games,

and rest peacefully with your winnings. It's dumb. Yeah, I don't feel great about it. Maybe it's a stay away. Okay. It's probably a stay away because we're trying to talk ourselves into the Ravens and every single piece of data over 20 years. Right. It says, don't do it here.

And Stewards plus three at home is exactly the type of bet that I would do without blinking. Right. Right. I don't think they're going to be able to run the ball on the Ravens at all. So now we're just putting the game in Russ's hands. I guess what the thing is crappy pass defense. If you really, really, really want to bet the Ravens, make sure that Kyle Hamilton check on a daily basis.

How's Kyle Hamilton do it? You daily basis how's Kyle Hamilton doing. What are the reports? You're right, he might not play either. What are the reports about how he's feeling, how he's doing, how does he look, is he a go, is he not a go? If you have to bet the Ravens, that's the key. So you really like Brown's plus one and a half

against the Saints. I love it. It's the Jamis return game. Jamis back to New Orleans, going right to commander's palace and getting to sit down with two dozen oysters. Um, it's the Browns off the bi-week. Here's, here's the distinguishing factor. Look at the Browns injury report. I'll tell you quickly, there are no names on it. The Browns, it's the healthiest this Browns team has been all season long.

And, you know, coming into the season, there was reasonable optimism for the Browns. I think their win total was eight and a half. And so that's a team, and the strength was supposed to be in the trenches for this Browns team. Their defensive front seven, their offensive line. Well, their offensive line was basically hurt all the way up until this last, you know, two weeks. And they,

because of the way the season has gone, they traded Zazaria Smith in the last handful of weeks. But I think it's just the Saints team, they got the new coach bounce. They got rid of Dennis Allen. They won one for the clogger. It's an amazing run for the clogger. The Sunday night Bill Simmons podcast with Cousin Sal between middle coach. Yeah we've had a good run at coach sick dams. Yeah so the clogger guys win. Yeah. I think they're terrible They are terrible. Are they gonna be able to throw three bombs to Marquez Valdez? Scatling I can't even say the names

Again, I don't think so. I like I read you some really fun Cleveland offense versus New Orleans defense matchups for this game It's gonna be hilarious Cleveland's offense 30 32nd in yards per play. New Orleans defense, 32nd in yards per play. Yeah! Cleveland's offense, 28th pass. New Orleans defense, 29th pass. There we go!

Cleveland's offense, 28th with the run. New Orleans defense, 27th. And then Cleveland's offense, 32nd hits to the quarterback. So last, they've given up the most quarterback hits. New Orleans, 27th and hitting the quarterback. So this is like the worst possible offense against the worst possible defense basically. But as you said, Browns are healthier. Nick Chubb, who had a bye week last week, who was finally starting.

Maybe this is like the Nick Chubb game. Jamus going into New Orleans. I kind of like the Browns. I'm with you. Isn't that fun? Let's do it. Plus the line is so crazy. Yeah.

The Saints being favored, the cloggers favored. Look at the price. It's like even money to take the favored team and you have to lay crazy juice if you want to take the favorite team. And you have to lay crazy juice if you want to take the Browns. It's like minus 125 to get the one and a half points. Yeah, why is that? The Browns, yeah, they're minus 122 plus one.

So, this is a money line bet then. Yes. Yes. Clearly. Minus Browns minus one. Oh wait. Okay. That sounds good. All right.

I think we have, was there anything else you liked or no? That was it. That's probably my favorite bet. The Browns because it's so dumb and hilarious. I think the Rams paths line is like a point and a half too high toward the Rams. It's Rams minus foreign app, but I don't want to bet it. And I also don't know why we don't have money in the Packers Vegas,

five and a half at good Chicago, but it almost looks like a, it looks like a trap game. All right. That's good. So million dollar picks. All right. I have a handle on it. Let me ask you this. If I told you we could do chiefs plus three and a half parlayed with lines minus two and a half minus one 19 and we do chiefs plus eight and a half stewards plus nine teas. Would you want to do both of those or just pick one? Let's do both.

We don't have to do enormous amounts. All right, it's time. Million dollar picks, week 11. Last week we lost $10,000 house. I don't know how we did it. It felt like we were all over the slate. We're still up with $768,000 for the year. First bet Broncos home against the wildly overrated Falcons.

This is only a minus two and a half. We think this gets to three by Sunday, right? Broncos by three on Sunday. For sure, for sure, for sure. But we're, we're positive, uh, uh, expected. sure, for sure, for sure. But we're positive expected. We beat the closing line value here on Million Dollar Picks. Yeah, we do it on Thursday nights. We're grabbing it early.

We love the Broncos defense, not sold to the Falcons at all. They could easily be a three win team. And Sean Payton, I just, them at home. Bo Nicks showing some signs of life. They got three running backs going. Broncos minus two and a half, that's our first one. Second one is one that House liked. Colts plus three and a half against the Jets.

Just cause if we can bet against the Jets every week, we're just gonna do it until Rodgers gets shut down. That's right. Anthony Richardson's in this game. House, you had a theory about what Steichen is going to do with Richardson. I really think that they're going to put the ball in his hands and let him have the green light to, to, to run early, to run often and just like reestablish himself, reestablish the team's confidence in him.

He's a tough guy. He's going to show them that he's a tough guy. He's going to get the job done. And ambassador Rogers can't wait to go off to his exotic destination. So we that was plus two oh nine Colts plus three and a half with Richardson over thirty eight and a half rushing yards. half with Richardson over 38 and a half rushing yards. It's a great bet. Plus two and nine.

We're going to put a hundred grand on that one. Chargers minus one and a half against the Bengals. I love this bet. I think the line should be Chargers minus three and a half. The Bengals, people are just like, oh, the Bengals, they need the game. They can throw the ball. I am in on the Chargers. I think they are a really good, complete, well-coached team.

They can run it. They can throw it. They have a top five or six defense. And I think the Bengals are really one-dimensional. They make dumb turnovers. They do stupid fourth and two, and they go for it. They get stuffed. Their defense is awful.

And I think the Chargers win this game outright. So we're putting 200k on them, and the Broncos minus two and a half as well. And then we're going to put, uh, 200K in the Browns minus one Oh eight against the clogger and the New Orleans saints make the case really fast. Tough spot for the saints with the injuries that they have. The Browns are coming off a buy with the clean bill of health. Jamis Winston back to the scene of many crimes, none of which had been reported, but he gets to get back to commander palace. We love the Browns offensive line defensive front seven.

They're going to put pressure on Derek Carr. No receivers left except for MVS. Good luck to the saints. A lot of pick six misdemeanors and a lot of picks and crossing route misdemeanors and a lot of picks and crossing route misdemeanors by Jameis. Last but not least, we're gonna do something a little different, put a little more on this Chiefs game because it's Chiefs bills, Chiefs getting two and a half

and we're gonna tweak this in two different ways for 150,000 each. First, Chiefs up to plus three and a half, we're gonna buy a point and combine it with the Lions minus two and a half against the Jaguars and Mac Jones. The Lions are huge favorites in Detroit. So we're going to use that. That's minus one 19.

Then we're going to tease the Chiefs to plus eight and a half with the Steelers where we went back and forth. We have to put money on this game. Somehow we've decided this is a touchdown game one way or the other, because we are better for so long. We realized, oh, a touchdown game one way or the other because we argued about it for so long. We realized, oh, it's in Pittsburgh. Steelers are underdogs. It's a great spot for them.

Let's just tease them to plus nine and enjoy it. So we're gonna put 150,000 on both of those bets. And the case is, it's the Chiefs. Their record is what? 27 and one and one as underdogs in the homes. 127, I don't know how many times he's covered it. He's only lost once in the Bills, home of the 13 seconds game.

Bills are a little banged up. I just think the Chiefs have a better team. I think the line's insulting. I think Mahomes should be insulted. So we're putting bets on both of those. So to recap, 200K on Broncos minus two and a half, Browns minus 108 to win outright, Chargers minus two and a half, Browns minus 108 to win outright, Chargers minus

one and a half. Then we're doing the Joe House parlay, Colts plus three and a half with Richardson 38.5 rush, 100k to win plus 209 on that. And then 250k bets, Chiefs plus three and a half parlayed with the lions minus two and a half. And then the chiefs plus eight and a half Steelers plus nine as a tease. But before we go, I have to ask you this Joe house, do we do the cousin South special with Steelers? Ravens win first half Steelers win game nine to one on Fandual. How could we three times this year already?

How could we not? It's hit three times already. Criminal negligence for us to sit here with this opportunity, this marquee game, and not get in on this Cousins Sal special, it's a must have here on the Million Dollar Picks. Little 25K sprinkling? Yes, have to do it.

A dusting? Required, mandatory. 25K on the C's house dealers parlay Stealer special, what's he calling it? He got to come up with a great name for it. I mean brandy he's a he's a master of branding Special fine great CSSS There we go 25k and that is 9 to 1 on Fandol. It's hit three times already this year It would be hilarious if it hit again. Those are the million dollar picks for week 11. House, buzzed house, semi

drunk house. Thanks for staying up late with us. Thanks for not a funny house. Good luck with your C cup parlay. What'd you call it? The C cup booster? Well, you didn't get the C cup profit booster, but I'll live with the C cup parlay. I'm going to go to bed now and dream about where ambassador Rogers is going to land. Good to see you house. All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Joe house. Thanks to Nate Tice.

Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti. As always, don't forget, you can watch clips and videos from this podcast on the bill Simmons channel on YouTube. And I will be back on Sunday night with the cause we'll be going live on YouTube as well, but I'm I will be back on Sunday night with the cause. We'll be going live on YouTube as well. You can watch it as we do it if you want, or you can just wait to listen to it later that night or the next day. Enjoy the weekend.

I will see you Sunday night. It must be 21 plus in President-elect states for Kansas and affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus in President DC. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here, visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.