The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 2: Guess the Lines Week 1 and Best NFL Futures. Plus, Parent Corner With Cousin Sal.

Episode Date: September 6, 2021

In Part 2 of a two-part Sunday podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal for their 15th season of Guess the Lines! First they make some NFL futures picks (1:05), before they guess the... lines for NFL Week 1 (18:54), followed by the return of Parent Corner (50:45). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Fantasy football is back, and you don't want your team to suck. My favorite fantasy football punishment I've ever heard is the last place guy had to spend 24 hours in a waffle house, and every waffle he ate was one hour off of his count. I want numbers. How many did he end up eating? 12 waffles in 12 hours. I'm Danny Heifetz. I'm Danny Kelly.
Starting point is 00:00:19 And I'm Craig Horlbeck. We host the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a waffle house, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on the Ringer Podcast Network. To avoid eating 12 waffles in a waffle house, follow the Ringer Fantasy Football Show on Spotify. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too. Miller Lite keeps it simple for us.
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Starting point is 00:01:28 some Miller Lights today? Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet at all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks, and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch your pass, same game parlays,
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Starting point is 00:02:52 going to guest alliance. We're going to do favorite NFL futures. We're going to do some million dollar picks, preseason version, and a whole bunch more. That's all next. First, our friends from Pearl Jam. All right. Part two of the Guess the Lines extravaganza. Cousin Sal is here. We're going to do some million-dollar pick features. We're going to guess the lines. We're going to do parent corner.
Starting point is 00:03:32 It's really fun to be back. It's good to see you. I feel like I don't see you enough. We lived like 15 minutes too far away from each other that it's actually a pain in the ass to see each other. Now I see you tonight. We have two fantasy drafts in a row. We're back. Well, we are back.
Starting point is 00:03:43 I suggested the second fantasy. We haven't seen each other in two years. Some of these guys are like, let's just do it over Zoom. I was like, alright, there we go. We have no restaurant. What do you mean? We had a restaurant and they were going to open the door and everything. So let's do it.
Starting point is 00:03:59 We still have two days. We can pull it off. You can't make anyone happy. No one's happy with this. I'm ready. If you want to do a restaurant, I'm ready to do it. Really? All right. Yeah. It's up to you. We can give each other COVID. It'll be awesome. All right. Before we do Guest Alliance, we're doing
Starting point is 00:04:16 million-dollar picks this year on the pod. I'm going to do million-dollar picks futures. If you hate any of these, I want you to veto veto them i'm just going to give them to you i have could i just first say this million dollar pitley like this is even a thing and this is not even an i i love that fandle embrace it but it's like ah oh you give out oscars i'm gonna call it the million dollar academy awards like whatever you assign the ridiculous amount that
Starting point is 00:04:42 no one's ever gonna win to these picks. People are going to win it. They're going to win it this year with us. All right. Okay. Let's do it. All right. So I have six 100K bets. Wow. I have six 50K bets.
Starting point is 00:04:55 That adds up to 900K. And then I'm going to let you add 100K. And we're going to keep tracking at the end of the year what this will actually factor in or whatever my total is. 100,000 on the Pats plus $126,000 to make the playoffs. Yeah. I like that.
Starting point is 00:05:11 I don't understand. I just don't understand it. The defense is 100 times better. The quarterback is going to be way better. The receivers are better. They actually have real tight ends. The only thing I'm worried about is the Stephon Gilmore thing. You know, I said Belichick,
Starting point is 00:05:28 eye of the tiger, after Brady goes and he leaves and he wins the Super Bowl, Belichick's in the fucking gym like Rocky III. He's doing the pull-ups. He got back to his roots. We're going 11-6 at least. We are making the playoffs. I think the
Starting point is 00:05:43 thing you have going for you most, I'm not falling for the Mac Jones thing. He might be great. He really might be, but I'm not getting to... First of all, let me just remind you of this before you go nuts. Rookie quarterbacks to start week one. Joe Burrow, team went 4-11-1.
Starting point is 00:05:58 Kylo Murray, 2019, team went 5-10-1. Sam Donald, 2018, 4-12. Kaiser Sosa. What was his first day? I don't even remember. 0 and 16. Kaiser Sosa. 2017, 0 and 16. Now, the difference is you have Belichick, and they spent $288 million in the off season. You know the old man has some tricks up his hoodless sleeve, whatever it is, is hoodies. I'll take that. I think that's a good bet. I think it's even better than over nine and a half
Starting point is 00:06:29 wins because I think you can make the playoffs at nine and eight. I really do. Everyone's like, oh, the AFC is infinitely better than the NFC. I still think there's a spot to make the playoffs at nine and eight, and that's why taking the plus money is smart. I'll go with you. Thank you. Yes. I've heard your rookie QB argument. I've heard that list of all the guys who don't
Starting point is 00:06:49 like it. Yeah. Well, what is, is here's the difference. Yeah. This guy is stepping into a really good race car and we have a history in the 21st century. We have seen quarterbacks as rookies step into awesome situations and deliver. It happened with Roethlisberger and the Steelers, 2005, whatever year that was. Happened with my guy, Russell Hustle and Bustle in the Seahawks, his first year. It kind of happened with your guy, Dak, after Romo got hurt and he stepped in and he did well because the team was good. I think if the guy is good and the guy is ready and he's a little advanced, but he's also stepping into a really good machine.
Starting point is 00:07:29 If rookie Joe Burrow last year was playing quarterback on this Patriots team, they would have had a really good year and he would have had a really good year. So their offensive line is top five. He has a running back crew that they're really going to be able to run the ball. And everything is going to feed into play action, misdirection, all this stuff. Every time they actually rely on him. I just think he's in an awesome situation. If he's even a B-, it's going to feel like a B+.
Starting point is 00:07:56 He's never going to be running for his life. Their defense is really good. They're going to be able to hold leads. And I love the plus 126. I'm going to put another 100K. Pat And I love the plus 126. I'm putting another hundred K. Pat's over 10 and a half wins. Plus 185. Let's go.
Starting point is 00:08:10 Oh, an adjusted line. Adjusted line. Plus 185 on FanDuel. This is great. Grabbing that too. I mean, there hasn't been a year where you don't like them over.
Starting point is 00:08:19 You don't like the Celtics. No, that's not true. I've been pessimistic about the Pats in certain years. Then you get mad at me. It's like, Oh, look at you. You're bitching about it. You just get mad at me either way. Either way, I'm getting mad. But Mac Jones, I just want to know what you're basing it on with Mac Jones. Because if you're basing it on the preseason, that's foolish. If you're basing it on his Alabama career, well, like I said, you saw what Alabama did to Miami the other day.
Starting point is 00:08:41 And you saw what Tua done. I'm sure everyone loved Tua over Trevor Lawrence. Now we're having our doubts about Tua. It might just be a system quarterback kind of thing. But the best thing I've heard about Matt Jones, I am jealous. And that he goes through his progressions faster than anybody, faster than any of the rookie quarterbacks. And that's kind of the name of the game with these guys. So damn it, you're back. I'm basing it on following this basically since they drafted him and reading every stupid Boston Herald, damn it, you're back. I'm basing it on following this, basically since they drafted him, and reading every stupid Boston Herald, MassLive, Boston Globe
Starting point is 00:09:10 piece, and all the quotes from the teammates, and all the stuff that happened on the Instagram. He's passed every checkpoint. It really reminded me of Wilson nine years ago. I was telling Mina and Danny this on Thursday, where it's like, at some point, you kind of know when you have a guy who's good.
Starting point is 00:09:26 And it really does seem like we have a good guy here. So those are my first two. His teammates like him. That's a rare thing. You'll never hear a teammate come out and say, they're like, what do I want? Well, if I hit these two bets, if the Pats go 11 and six, I'm risking 200 to win $311,000.
Starting point is 00:09:42 So I'm in on that. Next one, Chargers plus 126 to make the playoffs. I'm putting 100K on that. I like the Chargers. Yes. For all the reasons we mentioned. I like that. Browns plus 155 to win the AFC North.
Starting point is 00:09:54 I have them winning the North. I have 100K on that. I think they're the best team in that division. I like it. I like their coach. They got a taste of it last year. I think they're back. Smart. I have two division parlays for you Tampa
Starting point is 00:10:10 and Washington both to win their divisions plus 325 on FanDuel that's a loser I mean if the Cowboys weren't in Washington's division I could see maybe that being a challenge you wouldn't like that one Bills Bucks both over 11.5 wins I knew you wouldn't like that one. Okay, go ahead. You wouldn't like that one.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Bills, Bucks, both over 11 and a half wins, plus 230. Putting 100K on that. They both have to go 12 and five. I mean, that's going to be a week 18 thing. Really, I have them both, I think, at 11 wins. Great, I'll go against it. I'll hedge it. Yeah, all right.
Starting point is 00:10:43 Yeah, so it's fine. All right, so those are my 100K. How many of these you have? Jesus Christ. I have six 50K bets and then you have 100. All right. 50K. These are more flyers. Bills plus 470 for the one seed. 50K on that. Pretty good. Basically, like if Mahomes misses three weeks,
Starting point is 00:11:00 I win. Sure. Detroit 4-1 worst record grabbing that. Mahomes 4-1 for MVP. You, me, and House ran worst record, grabbing that. Mahomes, four to one for MVP. You, me, and House, we're going to text about this. I'm like, this is stupid. This will be plus 150 after three weeks. I'm just grabbing the odds. Well, my thing with this is you bet it every year for the next three years and it's going to win once. You'll win once. If I were an investor, I would say, yes, this is smart. Probably same idea with the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at five or six to one. Bet it every year for the next three years.
Starting point is 00:11:27 It's going to pay dividends. And it really seems like they nailed the offensive line. It seemed flimsy heading into the training camp, but then you read all the stories and it's like they found five guys they like and the guys have chemistry and it seems like they have an offensive line. I'm a little bit worried about the receiver death. So four to one for Mahomes. I like Allen was like 11-1 you can see him 13-1 some places but
Starting point is 00:11:49 I think the Mahomes is just safer 50k on the Rams and the Browns both to win their divisions at plus 650 wow that's high I'm not going to talk you out of that I like both of them 14-1 Stafford most passing yards.
Starting point is 00:12:07 I have another one. I don't think that's bad. I don't know what their attack is going to be. Can I make the case? Yeah, let's hear it. I don't think their running backs are very good. And I think McVay is going to be so excited to have a QB. And I really think deep down McVay doesn't like Goff.
Starting point is 00:12:26 And it drives him crazy that people don't realize how limited golf was. Lots of set records. Yeah. And he's like this guy who finally is on the highway with an awesome car. And he's just like, I'm going 130. I'm driving to Vegas. I'm going to see how fast I can go. I think that Stafford then, not to mention their running backs aren't really that good. So they're going to have to throw the ball. The only thing I see is that they'll have good field position backs aren't really that good. Right. So they're going to have to throw the ball. The only thing I see is that they'll have good field position because that defense is so good. So that might work against them. I have another one that I don't think that's bad odds,
Starting point is 00:12:52 but I have another offering for that when we get to mine for that category. Yeah. This is my last one. 50 K it's a parlay on Fando plus eight 50. Herbert to throw for 5,000 yards. Keenan Allen to have 10 plus touchdowns. Saw this. So the 5,000 yards, like Jesus,
Starting point is 00:13:10 that's a lot of yards, but there's an extra game. So it's really like he would be throwing for 4,700 yards normally and then get 300 in the extra game. Plus 850 just seemed high. I'm grabbing it, 50K. That is good value.
Starting point is 00:13:23 I don't think he gets the 5,000, but it's fake money, right? Who the hell cares't think he gets the 5,000, but it's fake money, right? Who the hell cares? It's fake money. All right. So that's what I got. So I have 100K on Pats plus 185 over 10 and a half. Pats plus 126 for the playoffs. Chargers plus 126 for the playoffs. Bills Bucks plus 230 over 11 and a half wins. Browns plus 155 to win the division. Tampa and Washington both win the divisions, plus 325. And then 50K on. Bills, plus 470 for a one seed.
Starting point is 00:13:49 Detroit, 4-1 worst record. Rams, Browns, both to win the division, plus 650. Mahomes, 4-1 MVP. Stafford, 14-1 most passing. Herbert, 5K passing yards out on 10-plus TDs. That's plus 850. What do you got for me? I'm giving you 100K.
Starting point is 00:14:05 I would only try to talk you out of the Washington one. And honestly, if it's not Washington, it's Dallas. If it's not Dallas, it's Washington. I really don't see any way the Giants or Philadelphia wins. With the cap implications and the offensive line for the Giants, it's really bad. The cap for the Phillies. But I just want to make a case for Washington's defense
Starting point is 00:14:21 being slightly overrated. Last year, they went against Dalton twice. They went against Hurts twice. Hurts gave up the game. They took him out in Week 17. They went against Danny Dimes twice. They went against Mullins. They went against some lousy quarterbacks last year,
Starting point is 00:14:36 and I don't think they have that advantage. It's a fair one. I have $100,000. Your quarterback, his leg was in seven places like nine months ago. I have four I want to run by. You tell me which one you pick. How about that? Or we could do two.
Starting point is 00:14:48 You have 100K to play with. I like this one on Fandle, this parlay, this special parlay thing they give you out. I like those things. I love this. Like if my wife said to me, it's me and the kids or it's this parlay, I was like, I'm sorry. I'm infatuated with this parlay and I just think it's going to be better for me in the long run. I'm sorry. I'm going to have to send you to
Starting point is 00:15:08 the Marriott or I'm going to have to go. Texans and Lions, both under four and a half wins, plus 250. Plus 250! I saw this one. I had this. This was an honorable mention for me. I don't think, I mean this, I'm looking at these teams and are they favored
Starting point is 00:15:23 in four combined games? I get it. You don't have to be favored to win games. It's going to happen. So Texans-Lions plus 250. Both under four and a half wins. How? One's going to have two, and one's going to have three.
Starting point is 00:15:41 My only fear with this is this seems like a bet Joe House would do. And then the Texans would beat the Jaguars in week one and House would be panicking and then hedging against it. And he'd win the bet anyway, but lose so much money hedging. I don't even care if the Texans beat the Jaguars week one, because that's one of the few that they can win and it's home and that's it. But I really liked, all right, let me give you another one. I like that one. Josh Allen under 475 and a half rushing yards, minus 112. This guy went from 59% to 69% accuracy from year three to four or two to three. Is that what it was?
Starting point is 00:16:14 We've never seen anything like it. I don't know that there's another quarterback. And if Danny Dimes did that, we'd be like, holy shit, from year two to three. If Danny Dimes went from 20 fumbles to 11, we'd be like, oh my God, what happened? No, but I think it's a foregone conclusion. People thought, oh, Josh Allen was always good. No, he wasn't that good in year two, one and two. He went up. And guess what happens when you have more accuracy, you're more confident in your passing. Your rushing yards go down. They just go down anyway. These guys stop rushing after a
Starting point is 00:16:43 certain amount of time, right? So he had 5'10". He had 6'31". Then he had 5'10 in 2019. He had 4'21 in 2020. I think he's in the 300s. I think he's in the high 300s. I think they line three wide. What'd they get?
Starting point is 00:16:57 Emmanuel Sanders. They got a nice little receiving cord there, and he's not going to use his legs that much. That's obviously even odds are minus 112. I'd recommend that. You already have one of these. I like Matt Ryan passing yards, 13 to one. He's at 10, 10 or more years with 4,000 passing yards. He's been around 45, 46, 47 some years. Yeah. He could get there 13 to one people freaked out. Julio Jones isn't there. Gage could be just as good putting up numbers. You know how much I like Kyle Pitts. I said it on the last podcast.
Starting point is 00:17:28 I think he can get a lot of passing yards. A lot of garbage time if you believe Atlanta is going to be bad. Obviously, this is a category you don't have to have a great team to win. Garbage time actually helps. Maybe you do Ryan and Stafford. The other thing is neither of those guys can run
Starting point is 00:17:43 at all. Any contribution they have is passing. Do the Mad Exacta, Ryan and Stafford. I like that 13-1. The other one I'll say is that NFC West is so hard to figure out. They have these bands. They have, what's it called? The Fandle Wind Bands. So you get a little range from, if you want to go Seattle from nine to 11 games, that's good odds. I like San Francisco 9 to 11 wins, somewhere in there, plus 150. I think the division is too good for them to have 12 or more. I think they're too good and the schedule's too weak otherwise for them to have fewer than 9 wins. I'd be very surprised if they weren't right in that range.
Starting point is 00:18:21 9 to 11 plus 150. So you have Texans, Lions on the 4.5. You have Josh Allen on the rushing yards. Matt Ryan passing yards to lead the category or San Francisco to have 9 to 11 wins plus 150. You pick two, whatever you want to do. Those are all winners. I really like
Starting point is 00:18:37 those, Sal. I might have to dip into my fake wallet and pull out some more fake money here. Get a loan. Get a loan from FanDuel. Yeah. I'm going to do an extra 50K on Texas Lions
Starting point is 00:18:49 plus 250. Easy winner. Oh, God. I'm going to do... Man, that Sam Fran bet. It's a great one. Do it. I'm going to put 100K
Starting point is 00:18:59 on that one. Nice. Sam Fran, 9 to 11 wins plus 150. That's a great bet. Good for you, Belly! Good job by you, Sal! that's a great bet good for you good job by you Sal that's a winner
Starting point is 00:19:07 and then I'm going to stay away from I'm going to root for Stafford over Rhett Moran we'll go head to head on that one you have that
Starting point is 00:19:15 Ryan I'll have Stafford I like my math better this is great million dollar picks future so after week 18 we'll see how we did I think those are some winners though that really good San Fran bet yeah So after week 18, we'll see how we did.
Starting point is 00:19:26 I think those are some winners, though. That really good Sam Fran bet. Yeah. Great job, buddy. Go through some of those bands. Some of those win bands are easy. Before we go to a break, I have a challenge for FanDuel. You know, because they listen to the pod from time to time.
Starting point is 00:19:41 They do? Sometimes we can suggest props. I have a prop that I think FanDuel should do. You and I both like the West in both divisions, right? Right. There's some sort of total playoff teams from the two West divisions
Starting point is 00:19:53 should be a bet. So what would the over-under be? Four? Well, it's stupid because I have six, but okay, obviously... You and I both have six, right? So what...
Starting point is 00:20:03 All right, so what odds would FanDuel give us if we think six playoff teams will come out of the two West? That's good. That's good both have six, right? So what, all right. So what odds would Fando give us? If we think six playoff teams will come out of the two. That's good. That's good. So what is that? Like three to one, we'd have to get three to one.
Starting point is 00:20:12 At three to one. I think you're right. When you say four is the over under, you can't go four and a half. Can't go three and a half. I think it's four. And then maybe odds higher for the, uh,
Starting point is 00:20:20 over there minus one 40 or something, but I like six. I mean, it can't be more than six, right? All right. So when I do the, uh, minus 140 or something. But I like six. I mean, it can't be more than six, right? All right. So when I do my Tuesday podcast, I will have an answer from FanDuel.
Starting point is 00:20:31 Maybe they should put the Bill and Sal. That should be a Bill and Sal prop. I like it. We should be able to set that. Bill and Sal's great adventure. Six West playoff teams. I think that should be four to one. I think it should be plus 400.
Starting point is 00:20:45 Right? Yeah, it might be more. Maybe higher. Maybe it's like 6-1. You're kicking a lot of teams out there if you do that. You're kicking either the Baltimore or Pittsburgh out. You're kicking Miami out. Maybe it's more than 4. It's like a 16 parlay. Challenge to Fandle. When we come
Starting point is 00:21:02 back, guess the lines. This episode is brought to you by Movember. Challenge to Fandle. When we come back, guess the lines. you'll do great things too. You won't win the Superbowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right, it's time. Guess the lines. Every year, Sal and I guess the lines. The winner is just... It used to be we used to threaten to hit each other with a sub. That never happened. Now, it's just bragging rights. I've won the last couple of years. Do you remember the last year you've won? No, I don't think I win. People accuse me of cheating. I haven't won in a decade. What are you talking about? How could I cheat? I know I see these lines ahead of time. I still can't get it right. Yeah. I don't, I don't,
Starting point is 00:22:07 I've not won week one in a long time either. So, so every, every week on guess the lines, you've never heard this before. Sal and I try to guess what the line is for the game. Whoever comes closer wins. It's really that simple. That's it. I avoided the week one lines until last week when I finally, when I saw that the Rams and the Niners were both playing shitty teams and I wanted to do a tease.
Starting point is 00:22:32 And I was like, all right, I got to see the line. So I sent you my guesses like five days ago. Did you change any? I mean, you could change.
Starting point is 00:22:39 I don't know that a lot's happened in that time. I thought about changing the Bucks-Cowboys to half point because you lost your best offensive lineman. Seemed reasonable, but I'm happy to ride it out.
Starting point is 00:22:51 Can I change to a half point leeway with that one? Yeah, sure. I would move that to 7.5. Okay, so you had it at 7. You're going 7.5. This is Thursday night. I had it at 6. And already you're cheating. It's 7.5. So you had it at seven. You're going seven and a half. This is Thursday night. I had it at six and already
Starting point is 00:23:07 you're cheating. It's seven and a half. One nothing Simmons. I would have went either way. Yep. I don't like that. You talk about your teaser. That's not a bad start. Mark that down. That is our first teaser candidate. It's not bad. It's so nice to have the Thursday teaser
Starting point is 00:23:23 that you then get to bring to the Sunday games. This little present. I'm going to put this over here and three days later I get to unwrap it. They were already going to lose that battle in the trenches, I think. This makes it much worse. The 22 starters returning.
Starting point is 00:23:40 Dak hasn't seen any playing time. I think it looks this could be a 17 point win for Tampa. I'm not going to join you in that teaser, but I definitely see why you're doing it. I don't like the Bucks D line against your offensive line. That is missing. One of your best guys makes me again.
Starting point is 00:23:59 And Dak. Yeah, whatever they could say. No, no, he's fine. It's just, all right,
Starting point is 00:24:03 we'll see. I love how fast Zeke is. Like, I think you just need the hard knocks music accompanying him uh running through the holes and i think that's uh that's all he really needs to get going but yeah they're they're in trouble for this first game but i like them afterwards why does zeke gronk like from from the gecko gronk became like this character and everybody talked about how dopey he was, right? Zeke in Hard Knocks made Gronk look like Gronk had just done like a hundred whippets and then was just being filmed on camera.
Starting point is 00:24:35 What is going on with that guy? What would Zeke be like in an interview? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think he also- He's giggly. He's like a sixth grade girl. What happened to that guy? And it makes,
Starting point is 00:24:46 because we know a little bit of the Hollywood magic. So when he's wrapping a present for Dak Prescott and Dak Prescott then shows up at the door while he's wrapping at it, like it's a Three's Company episode,
Starting point is 00:24:55 like, oh, whoa, whoa, what did I do here? And Zeke's just laughing at everything. I don't know what kind of, what he's putting in his soup, but yeah, it might be, it might be CO2 cartridges.
Starting point is 00:25:05 You should have got him, got him for, for the Fox bet live show. He just could have been in a square just laughing at everyone's jokes for an hour. It could be the new Furman. Yeah. Yeah. And I think you're right about a teaser there at seven and a half seems right now that I, I look at it. It is one of those where you, you load up, by... By the way, all the bad gamblers will be loading up
Starting point is 00:25:26 on teases with that, so you should mention. Just be careful. Yeah, but be careful but the Super Bowl champ wins this Thursday night game almost all the time, right? Yeah. It's just one of those things where C.D. Lamb has a 75 yard touchdown five minutes in. Gotcha. And you're going, what did I do?
Starting point is 00:25:41 What did I do? I really think this Bucks... You can't sleep on Brady switches teams during a pandemic. Basically has to figure out during the season how to mesh with these guys. Now, if you read the stories or see the interviews, he has so much confidence with this team. It just seems like they're going to be a machine.
Starting point is 00:26:01 Yeah, right. It's like he's been with them for years. And he got rid of COVID a week after the Super Bowl. It's like,'s been with them for years. And he got rid of COVID like a week after the Super Bowl. It's like a guy can't do anything wrong. Our Sunday marquee game. The Chiefs are home against the Browns. Little rematch. I think this is the best game of all the Sunday games.
Starting point is 00:26:17 I had this is in the teaser zone as well, but I will not be teasing them. I had the Chiefs laying six points to the Cleveland Browns. I actually got this exactly. I swear I did. Six and a half is the number. Kansas City. And I think they should start Chad Henney. I think they should scare the shit out of Cleveland. Like, oh no, what is this? Then he can walk back. My God, it's Chad Henney. I think I like an upset here. I think I'm picking it. So I was looking at a underdog, long underdog money line bets.
Starting point is 00:26:51 The Browns, let's mark them down. Yeah. There you have Vegas against the Ravens on Monday night. I think they have to be marked down. Right. And then the other one I like is the Steelers as a possible money line underdog. So let's go to that game. I have four in the watchables.
Starting point is 00:27:10 Four really good games. Why do we have so many good games? They really did it. They did it for college football and they did it for pro. Like they're getting it together. I don't know. Maybe they see that this is going to be a three-week season. Like, well, let's just get all the games on.
Starting point is 00:27:21 Let's just load it up. I had the Bills laying six to the steelers and i i think the steelers are another one that i could you know they could put up 38 points in buffalo who knows you're gonna get this i was stupid it's six and a half uh i went i went four and a half i don't know why but yeah you're right this is i'm looking at the you know what i i i so you you avoided you say you avoided these lines. I don't really believe you, but I saw the lines came out in March and I avoided them until the over-under win totals came out. I'm like, all right, so most of these are based on over-under win totals. So it was a little bit of a cheat, although it didn't help me in this one.
Starting point is 00:27:59 Six and a half. You like this as a teaser game or a stay away? No, I like this as an underdog game. I don't think the Chiefs or the Bills should be thrown in teases because the Browns and the Steelers, there's too much scary potential. I don't like teasing when the other team can score points. It makes me nervous. Next one, Pat's home against the Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:28:24 I guess three and a half I have seen the line I know it's three now but I guess three and a half I think it went down to two and a half I don't know where all these Patriot fan money's going but should we check this? I think it's two and a half you get it I said four
Starting point is 00:28:40 I think it should be four I thought there was going to be a lot of noise and a lot of support for New England Can I predict that You know how we all overreact to everything In the first week I'm going to predict that this is the most overreacted game Either Tua sucks
Starting point is 00:28:56 Or Mac Jones sucks Or Tua is back Or Mac Jones is going to Canton I think this is going to be the biggest Overreaction People are going to lose their mind one way or the other. And they'll change it again in week two. But this is the one.
Starting point is 00:29:11 So I think the overreaction is going to be, I didn't realize that Pat's front seven and their running backs were this good. Oh, really? Yeah. Because I think our front seven is really good. Like this Barmore they got in the second round, he was just destroying people all summer.
Starting point is 00:29:26 And, you know, they got Hightower back. Uche's in his second year, and he's going to be able to rush back. Just all the way across, they have size, they have depth, they have pass rushers, they have guys who can cover anyone on the backfield. The Gilmore is the only piece that is worrisome. He's going to be gone for six games.
Starting point is 00:29:42 We don't have, like have a number one corner. This could be like, could Waddle go nuts in this game? Maybe. Waddle looks pretty terrifying. I'm not worried about this game. I feel like I should be more worried. I feel like Kyle and I are just going to be rolling around on each other
Starting point is 00:29:59 on the couch. High-fiving. It's going to be great. I think you are too. I hate to say it going to be great. I think you are, too. I hate to say it. I hate it. I think you're back. I really do. It sucks. Thanks, man. Thanks, Seth. Next we want... This game's really good, too. Seahawks at Colts.
Starting point is 00:30:15 Yeah. We get to see year 10 of the Russ MVP campaign that we can get all fired up about, Mr. September. Right. I don't know what's going on
Starting point is 00:30:28 with the Colts quarterback situation. Are we getting Wentz? We're not getting Wentz? Are we getting Wentz? I thought we were getting Wentz. I think we are. So to me, that is the most captivating
Starting point is 00:30:38 new scenery guy because there's a chance he could just be flat out awful immediately. He'll be like, oh, this guy sucks. Why did we think change scenery was going to help him? I think this is
Starting point is 00:30:50 18 of 23 wins for Seattle. I think this spans three years. We're decided by one score. That's phenomenal. I think this falls right in the same spot. Colts either blow it late or do something. Did you pick this? I had no,
Starting point is 00:31:06 no, it's by three. We both had plus three. So, um, it's plus two and a half plus two and a half for the Seattle's favorite. Seattle's favorite by two and a half. Yep.
Starting point is 00:31:14 All right. Last one. This is a good game to Packers saints. This is going to be in, uh, Jacksonville. I'm really on my game this year. You're impressed.
Starting point is 00:31:22 I know I am impressed. I even knew that this game wasn't in New Orleans. Up until like an hour ago. I didn't know this was in Jacksonville. I looked it up. Yeah. But I think you picked the line wrong because of it.
Starting point is 00:31:33 No, I actually, I figured when I sent you the lines, I figured they weren't playing in New Orleans because of freaking Ida. Yeah. I have Packers two and a half
Starting point is 00:31:42 over the Saints. Well, I had four and a half and it's four. No, you get that one. I get it, but I just... This is an underreported storyline here. They purposely picked Jacksonville because it's a tougher place to get to
Starting point is 00:31:57 for Green Bay fans. And then they find out like, no, no, no, there's a pocket of Packer fans, thousands of them right there in central florida so this is going to be interesting aside from the whole team being demoralized about the horrible list that's going on in new orleans but um this is interesting play you know like sean payton a cat and mouse game going on it's it's a fucking bummer but i feel like we've done this is 15th year of guess the lines yeah it feels like every year there's some sort of hurricane game with one of these teams.
Starting point is 00:32:28 And it's just weird to talk about. I mean, and it's the same conversation every year. Like, oh yeah, this city got ravaged by this hurricane. Now they got to go to Jacksonville to play a game. I have no idea what the effect is going to be on their team. Could go any way. To me, from a gambling standpoint, it's a complete stay away. But the Packers are a little banged up on their line.
Starting point is 00:32:46 Yeah. I mean, this is a good time to catch them if you're thinking about an upset. You just never know with the emotion, right? This could shoot to the top of the list of all storylines if New Orleans wins this and Jameis Winston's the savior and I did it for the city and everything. Barely watchables.
Starting point is 00:33:02 I have four. Falcons-E Eagles from an entertainment standpoint probably should be in the watchables it's just two teams that probably aren't making the playoffs so that we both like the Falcons this is in Atlanta I have the Falcons laying four points to the Eagles probably a little low
Starting point is 00:33:18 it's high actually and but it's not as high as what I said I said four and a half I have no confidence in this Eagles team. Meaning there. People at FanDuel are like, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on. This is the Falcons. It's three and a half. So you were closer with minus four. This is going to be an embarrassment of all embarrassments.
Starting point is 00:33:35 If I have Atlanta to win 11 games or whatever I have it at and they lose to the cruddy Eagles, Jalen Hurts throws for 300 yards and runs for three touchdowns. That'll be bad. Yeah.dy Eagles. Jalen Hurts throws for 300 yards and runs for three touchdowns. That would be best. Yeah. I have a Jalen Hurts. So let's say Fandle makes you their odds guy.
Starting point is 00:33:51 Mm-hmm. And somebody calls in and says, we got to make odds for Minshew will be the starting quarterback by week seven. What week? Yeah. Week seven.
Starting point is 00:34:02 What would you put the odds for Minshew week seven Eagles starting quarterback? Because I think this hurts thing. I liked watching him last year, and he certainly can run the shit out of the ball. I have no idea if he's going to be a good starting quarterback. You can tell me he's in four games.
Starting point is 00:34:17 They're like, we got to get this guy out of here. We just don't know. Whereas Minshew has produced. I'll say that's a favorite for Minshew. I think that's minus 160. By the way, they should have a bunch of these. I don't understand why over-under starts for Justin Fields. I want to see all.
Starting point is 00:34:33 Don't you want to see all these trade lengths? Oh, yeah. What would you say for that? 13 and a half? Yeah, probably around there. For Fields. I think the fans get crazy for Fields. I would say for Lance, I think that would be like two and a half for me.
Starting point is 00:34:44 Is that right? I think Jimmy G. Yeah, I think that would be like two and a half for me. Is that right? So Jimmy G just goes. I think Jimmy G. Yeah, I think that's a Super Bowl team possibly. They're not going to mess around with Ricky QB, right? He's in a really good spot. Yep. They'll work him in, but they're not going to mess around.
Starting point is 00:34:56 They have too many good players. I want to see all of these. I really do. Yeah. All right. Fandle, reach out for us. We're right here for God's sakes. I like the Falcons in that game.
Starting point is 00:35:03 Next one is Titans Cardinals. This is in Tennessee. I guess I almost put this in the watchables because it is fun to watch the Titans because they're offensive players and there's fantasy implications every game with them.
Starting point is 00:35:19 I'm interested with Kyler. I ended up keeping him. What would you have done? In our Fantasy Keeper League, I had him at 18 last year. We had to add $5 to keep. I'm interested with Kyler. I ended up keeping him. What would you have done? We, in our fantasy keeper league, I had him at 18 last year. We had to add $5 to keep. So he was 23. Oof. Which was high.
Starting point is 00:35:33 But then other, you know, you kept Josh Allen. You had Josh Allen for a dollar last year. So you have him for six this year. That's better. Somebody else kept Stafford. Somebody else kept Tannehill.
Starting point is 00:35:44 Like there weren't a lot of quarterbacks, and Murray and Mahomes were basically the best two guys. And I actually think Murray's going to have better stats this year than he did last year because he was hurt for the second half of the year last year. Yeah, if you don't want to bid $40 on Rodgers or Mahomes and you don't want to get in a bidding war for Murray when you had him at 23, that's not bad.
Starting point is 00:36:05 I just wanted to lock it down. I didn't want to worry about some sort of bidding war for Murray, who's the last guy before it dips down to the Joe Burrow, Mac Jones level. Do you think Russell Wilson goes for that much? I can't remember what he went for last year. That's about the same, right? I know, but have you ever loved having Russell Wilson in December in fantasy? But if you look at their numbers, it's going to end up being about the same. No, I get it. I get it. Well, I locked him down. I'm interested to see what he does this year, though. I don't think that team's going to be great, but I think he has a chance to be awesome. I have Titans by four over Arizona. I went high. Again, disrespecting the Titans,
Starting point is 00:36:42 Vandal and all the books out there. I said six and it's only three. Field goal at home. I know it's not like December. It's not freezing. People don't like that defense. Yeah. You know what they're going to remember? They're going to remember the Titans.
Starting point is 00:36:57 What was that line for that movie? I think that's it. I think you got it right. But I mean, if you're going to get, if you're thinking Derrick Henry will eventually break down, you sort of have to like him in the first few games, don't you? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:09 I like the Titans in this game. I don't think the Cardinals are going to be very good. But it seems too easy. And like you, I'm suspicious. I know. I'm like, what's going on here? We've been burned too many times. It's 15 years.
Starting point is 00:37:22 I was thinking, I actually had an idea for this that I think we should incorporate in a Guest Alliance. I think this is, remember in Goodfellas, the... Whatever you say, of course, I remember. I don't know if you've ever seen it.
Starting point is 00:37:33 Yeah. Jimmy has some dresses for Henry's wife. It's like, no, no, no, it's a little further. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's over there. It's over there. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:42 I think this is the... I think this is the Jimmy has some dresses game for this week. Say, it's Titan Street. No, no yeah i think this is the i think this is the jimmy has some dresses game for this week say titan three no no no no it's over there it's to the right titan three i have to go see my mother jimmy so anyway i think we should have that game every week though right this is the jimmy dresses game and i'm i'm staying away it looks so obvious to me I'm I love that I love thanks thanks I was excited this next game Chargers at Washington was a bummer for me because these were two of the teams I wanted to bet on in week one and they're playing
Starting point is 00:38:17 against each other which I hate it's gonna happen yeah you're gonna have fantasy players you're gonna root yeah I'm so ready to do the Chargers. I have the Chargers favorite. I have Chargers by one, and I actually might bet them two. You hit it exactly. I thought it was two. I thought the Chargers. I mean, the over-unders are. What is the Chargers over?
Starting point is 00:38:37 I get it's home field and everything. I don't know. It just seemed like the Chargers over-under. I got too crazy with the over-unders and trying to set these lines, and it didn't work out really. So you like the Chargers too? Yeah, I like the Chargers, unless something stupid happens.
Starting point is 00:38:53 I hate that. If it's 9-7 going into the fourth quarter, I know I have a loser. Who's worse to bet against than Fitzpatrick? Yeah. I mean, to honor against. You have him, and it's fucking terrifying. Right.
Starting point is 00:39:04 You bet against him, and it's like you've bet against them one of the three games of the year when he throws for 380 with four touchdowns, and you're like, what the fuck is happening? I'm getting killed by Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's another great, I'd love to know his over-under starts, right? So where does this line end? Does this end at like one and a half?
Starting point is 00:39:22 No, it doesn't get to three, right? So what is it right now? It's, what did we say? One. You got it right at one. I'm trying to figure out how the Chargers field goal, how they win, but the field goal kicker screws you anyway. Can you win by a half?
Starting point is 00:39:34 It ends at one and a half. I don't know by the rules. There are new rules this year. Chargers minus one and a half, and the guy misses four field goals. There's a dry, and they end up winning by one. Right. Last barely watchables.
Starting point is 00:39:46 Broncos Giants. Your nemesis, the Broncos, your blackjack table. You just want to sit back down on. Right. I have Broncos by two
Starting point is 00:39:54 and a half at the Giants, by the way, not in Denver. I whiffed on this. Boy, you're going to freaking beat me again. I had as a pick them because I had trouble
Starting point is 00:40:03 just thinking about it. I think Teddy two gloves is a better quarterback. I don't know. I probably should have laid points. Yes, I should have because it's three. Denver is a three-point favorite in the Meadowlands. We did the over-unders, and I was saying how I love Denver's over.
Starting point is 00:40:18 Their skill position, guys, might be really good this year. Sutton's back. I love Judy. I just didn't think he had a quarterback last year. I liked Hamler. I thought Hamler was good down the stretch. Right.
Starting point is 00:40:28 This Javante Williams, they took him the second round. There's a big jerk circle on him, like how good he might be. They have like three running backs, yeah. And Noah Fant, I liked last year too.
Starting point is 00:40:37 So, Bridgewater's even like a B-minus. I actually think they'll move the ball this year, unlike last year. Fant's a little banged up, but yeah, I mean,
Starting point is 00:40:43 you looked at the guy, like, you know, Drew Locke had awful, I don't even, what was his percentage? He was one of the worst in the league. Yeah, he was just not fun to watch. I'm surprised. It's probably the better move, but I'm still surprised that they went with
Starting point is 00:40:56 Teddy Tugelhoff. Fanny Pack Fangio would be the reason for Paz. Right. Yeah. All right. We're going to take a break. We got seven games left and then we're going to do Paracord.
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Starting point is 00:41:26 to reach further with access to over 1400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express. Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. All right, we're back. We got four teams in the poopfecta category this year. Vikings, Bengals, you could have talked me into barely watchables, but I really do think there's a chance they're going to be terrible. And then with the Vikings, who the hell knows? They might have 11 COVID guys on Saturday. I had games in Cincinnati.
Starting point is 00:42:03 I had the Vikings by two and a half. Yeah. I had two and it's three and a half. I like the Bengals. You got to talk me out of the Bengals plus nine and a half in the teaser. I mean, I really like that. Oh, can you please don't tease the Bengals. Come on.
Starting point is 00:42:18 It's the Vikings. You love all the flash. Why do you want to put bad teams in a tease? You know not to do that. Not a bad team. 7-1 team. What's the final line? It's 3.5.
Starting point is 00:42:30 That's what I mean. I can get 9.5 on a tease. Almost 10 points. Well, why wouldn't you just do a 7-point tease? I'm doing it. You're right. That's what I'm doing. Of course I'm doing that.
Starting point is 00:42:40 I have no idea why you like the Bengals. I'm so confused by this. They're going to win. Joe Burrow is back. Comeback player of the year. Did you pick that why you like the Bengals. I'm so confused by this. They're going to win. Joe Burrow is back. Comeback player of the year. Did you pick that comeback player of the year? Do you have one? Joe Burrow is so not back. I was just reading articles about how he's still gaining confidence in his knee.
Starting point is 00:42:55 He's smoking cigars. He's good. Don't you worry about a damn thing. Next poop factor. This game could get ugly. 49ers-Lions. This Niners team I think is going to be... Oh, well, let's pick the spread first. I had the 49ers by
Starting point is 00:43:11 five. Is that too low? All right, I get this. I said six. Finally, it's seven and a half. You have to do a little work. A little more than a point and a half on a tee. One thing with this game, and I think to remember with the Niners in general, their running backs are going to be really good. I loved
Starting point is 00:43:27 Mostert last year and then he got hurt. Everybody likes Trey Sermon. They always seem to have like five running backs and the next guy comes in, they're awesome. They're going to be able to do this Trey Lance bullshit. They have Debo Samuel coming on the reverses. So if this team is up,
Starting point is 00:43:43 I don't know, 17-7 in the second half, I just feel like now it's like, here's your 18-play drive. We're putting you away. And then on the flip side, the Lions, Jared Goff, and I think probably the worst receivers, at least in the NFC, right? They have to be in the running for worst receivers,
Starting point is 00:43:59 period. Right. Does the Lion receiver get drafted in our draft for more than than a dollar? No, unless Galladay gets traded back. Yeah, I don't know. Even look at DeAndre Swift. Oh man, I don't want that guy. He comes up early in any snake draft. They might score seven touchdowns this year, the whole team. I'm with you. I love that running game. I like 49ers. The thing with the 49ers, which camp are you in? Are you like, Shanahan might not be a winner. He's only won one in four years, right? Or are you in the camp like, they had upwards
Starting point is 00:44:30 of $80 million of cap space on the IR at any point last year. Of course, Bosa and Kittle and all these guys coming back and Jimmy G, it's going to make a difference. I think this is one of the easy Ws. You can hear it in the
Starting point is 00:44:45 McVeigh Shanahan podcast. They're clearly like the next generation, like the leaders of that generation and monitor each other. And they're like good friends, but they're also kind of frenemies in some way. And it does feel like this is the season where they're going to go mano a mano and
Starting point is 00:45:01 not in just the two games, but they're potentially the two of the three best teams in the uh nfc are those that'll be fun get it going uh fyi mark this fucking down for a tease for sure 49ers lions so we have bucks cowboys sorry 49ers lions um and this game could be ugly early next one panthers jets i love this this might be my what. Next one, Panthers-Jets. I love this. This might be my, what did I say? The baseball. This is my favorite,
Starting point is 00:45:29 and what else did I say was my, yeah, this is my favorite on Sunday. I love it. Panthers, I have five and a half over the Jets. You get it. I'm not betting on this. I said four and a half. No, let's just watch and enjoy.
Starting point is 00:45:43 It's five. It's right there in the Vegas zone. Even Vegas is like, stay away on this. I said four and a half. No, let's just watch and enjoy. It's five. It's right there in the Vegas zone. Even Vegas is like, stay away from this. I want Donald to be good. I want him to be good. I don't know why. Here's what I want to see with the Jets. They do have garbage time potential with Wilson.
Starting point is 00:46:00 That dude can fling it. The receivers are decent, but they do seem like a team that could be down 23 to nothing, and then it's like, let's go to the Carolina where it's 23 to 14. Zach Wilson's heating up. So I just would stay away from this. I didn't give it to you on my futures picks, but I do like Zach Wilson.
Starting point is 00:46:22 He's not spoken about at all for offensive rookie of the year. In fact, his number went down. It was like six to one. Now it's seven to one because Mac Jones stepped up there. Trey Lawrence's favorite Mac Jones plus 450. Zach Wilson, for the reasons you mentioned, he could just get so much garbage time that he ends up with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and a high amount of yardage, right? So that could be enough for a guy who's playing every week to win the offensive rookie of the year. I saw that.
Starting point is 00:46:50 And I, I took a long look at him for most interceptions too. Oh yeah. Fitzpatrick has that lockdown is the favorite at six to one. The history of Fitzpatrick is just like, if this guy plays a whole season, he's throwing at least 18 interceptions. But wait a minute. Hold on. Isn't
Starting point is 00:47:07 Jared Goff up there? He's got to be up there for that. Fitzpatrick had the best odds. He did. Yeah. And then we have our guy Jameis is back too. 30 for 30. Right, right, right. Yeah. We have him as well. So the interception thing, we probably should have, maybe after
Starting point is 00:47:24 we finish Guest Alliance, we'll do that really quick. Fitzpatrick 6-1. Okay. Yeah, Goff is right behind him, plus 650. Give us all the, who else? Fitzpatrick 6-1. Goff plus 650. Darnold 850.
Starting point is 00:47:35 Big Ben 850. Wentz 10. Two at 10. Wentz at 10 is intriguing. Hurts and Wilson 12. Jameis 16. Jameis and Trevor Lawrencets and Wilson 12 Jameis 16 Jameis and Trevor Lawrence 16 Jameis 16
Starting point is 00:47:48 The guy threw 30 interceptions We got to jump on something like that 16? Yeah there's a couple of these I don't want to root against Jameis though I still kind of enjoy I enjoy watching Jameis He could have a good year
Starting point is 00:48:00 And still lead in interceptions Our last poopfecta game is Basically the bathrooms They blew up year and still leading interceptions. Our last poopfecta game is basically the bathrooms. They blew up and their sewage is overflowing everywhere with this one. Texans, Jaguars. This actually might be the worst matchup you could have
Starting point is 00:48:15 that doesn't involve the Lions in 2021. Right. I have the Texans favored by one and I kind of like the Texans. Why did you do that? You're going to like them even more that they're getting two and a half points. I mean, I had them plus three. So the Jaguars are favored?
Starting point is 00:48:30 Jags are favored on the road. That's. Can I, we've not, we've never done this before. I don't think in 15 years, but we have our playoff cross offs, right?
Starting point is 00:48:39 And we try to get rid of one every week. Can we cross the Texans off before the, we can't do that. Nope. Are we going to haveans off before the season ends? We can't do that? Nope. We have more weeks now. We need the weeks. They didn't add teams? We're not going to have egg on our face here. I think losers crossed off.
Starting point is 00:48:56 Yeah, that's not bad. Sunday night. I got to be honest. I want a little more from the Sunday night game than Rams Bears. And Chris and Al talking about how great the LA stadium is for an hour. And then Justin Fields just getting the shit kicked out of him as the bear fans have a heart attack.
Starting point is 00:49:17 When's he getting shit kicked out on the sideline? Well, he'll be ending the second half of this. Really? Come on. A lot of bears fans there, you think? Yeah. Yeah, I think so.
Starting point is 00:49:29 So Dalton has two three and outs in a row. Boo. You just hear the boos somewhere in there. We'll see Fields in this game. Well, doesn't Fields be like, I'll skip the Rams game. I'm good. I don't want to go up against Aaron. Fields is like, I was near somebody on COVID.
Starting point is 00:49:44 I think I have to miss this one. Yeah. Well, I have the Rams game. I'm good. I don't want to go up against Aaron. It's just like, yeah, I was near somebody on COVID. I think I have to miss this one. Yeah. Well, I have the Rams by eight. I hit this exactly. I said seven. Is there any way I can catch up? I have six, including the ties you have. I have six, seven, eight, nine.
Starting point is 00:49:59 No, you have ten. I lost again. Lost again by a lot. Well, so this is a teaser game, don't you think? Yeah, so here's my recommendation. This is, I think, what I'm going to do on Thursday unless the lines move too much for Million Dollar Picks. The seven-point teaser with the, you have the Bucs,
Starting point is 00:50:19 you have the Rams, you have the Niners. You could bring all of them down to basically a half point. They just have to win by a point. You win. Plus 140 or plus 150, whatever. I think that's the move. It's not bad. You just get through the Bucks game
Starting point is 00:50:35 and then you know you have the better odds for the other two. Doing those teasers like that, it's like who's going to screw me? It would probably be your team would be my pick. It's not going to be the Bears. I hope so. The Bears aren't beating the Rams. I just, you know, there are two schools of thoughts.
Starting point is 00:50:50 Take advantage of these lines while they're weak, then they're soft early on. Or the other school of thought is who the hell you think you are. We haven't seen any of these teams play. You think you're going to pick three games, right? But I'm with the former. I like that. Well, we know we love betting week one and week two
Starting point is 00:51:10 because this is when, like I look at that Broncos-Giants game, Broncos-Giants three. In three weeks, that might be Broncos-Giants by six. Sure. You know, once people actually watch the Giants, they're like, wow, this team sucks. Yeah, I loved it. Same thing with that Niners-Lions line. I think Yeah. Same thing with that Niners-Lions
Starting point is 00:51:26 line. I think by like week 14, that Niners-Lions line is like Niners by 12 at Detroit. Something like that. So we're getting extra points. I feel the same way with the Rams-Bears. The Bears can't block. They're not going to be able to block the Bears or the Lambs. Wasn't this the game when we had the guy
Starting point is 00:51:42 who won the contest? Not the contest, but the donation thing? Yeah, we did Rams-Bears. Wasn't that the game when we had the guy who won the contest? Not the contest, but the donation thing? Yeah, we did Rams-Bears. Wasn't that the Sunday night? Yeah. Monday night's pretty good. Ravens at Raiders. And for the first time, they don't have two games, right?
Starting point is 00:51:57 First time in a long time. There used to be two Monday night games. Yeah, how'd you feel about that? Well, I think they just think they don't have the crew anymore. Our first crew has been, I love Steve Libby, but the first crew has been laughable. I don't know. Maybe no one stepped up to do the voice of the game.
Starting point is 00:52:15 Is it possible? We were right here. They just could have asked. Come to us. One game though, Monday. Would you have done Maria Taylor and Rachel Nichols and that's in the second game or no? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:24 You could have gotten good ratings. Rachel,ols? That's in the second game or no? Yeah. You could have gotten good ratings. Rachel, I'll be Maria. Ravens, Raiders. I have the Ravens by one and a half. And I know that's too low. I should have gone higher. It is too low.
Starting point is 00:52:35 I said three and it's four and a half. Jesus. And that is not enough for me to win. Bill Simmons, 10-7. Here we go. Sal, I think we're aligned on this. At least Raiders week one. The Raiders money line. Yeah, let's do it.
Starting point is 00:52:48 What's the money line? Like plus 185, plus 190, something like that? Let me find it. Let me find it. It's pretty tasty. Yeah, I mean, we'll be down a lot of money by the time the Monday night game rolls around, but where are we?
Starting point is 00:53:01 So upset specials. Plus 180. Yeah. Upset specials. That's one. I think you like the Bengals. I'm not as high on that one. I think the Saints are intriguing.
Starting point is 00:53:14 And then one of those Brown Steelers against the Chiefs or Bills. Something. There will at least be a scare in one of those games. Whether you want to bet against the Chiefs and Bills in week one. I like the Browns. I know games. Whether you want to bet against the Chiefs and Bills in week one. I like the Browns. I know I don't want to bet against the Chiefs either, but I do like the Browns. I think the Chiefs come out slow.
Starting point is 00:53:33 Yeah, offensive line is fixed and all that, but Cleveland gets their revenge. 27-24. At least they go into that game knowing we hung with these guys. Yeah, right. Are they fully back? at least they go into that game knowing we hung with these guys yeah right i mean where are they fully back or that is there's no chance they go back to the old browns right whether it's like
Starting point is 00:53:51 four and 13 i don't think so they actually have a legit coach coach one coach of the year yeah they have good skill guys they have the the double-barreled running back thing which will be a nightmare again right Right. Well, Sal, I have some news for you. Let's do it. Today's Parent Corner is brought to you by Nissan. Wow.
Starting point is 00:54:12 The all-new 2022 Nissan Pathfinders Intelligent 4x4 will get you back outdoors to kayaking or mountain biking or in Sal's case, driving his kids around to travel baseball and weird football games.
Starting point is 00:54:26 Yeah. You could also embrace family journeys and exploration. Two things the Iacono family is big on. Return to rugged in the all new 2022 Nissan Pathfinder. Learn more at nissanusa.com. We've been doing Parent Corner for a long time. We have. I don't, at least like seven or eight years.
Starting point is 00:54:48 And now it's getting weird. You still have a young one. The young ones are way funnier. My kids are now at the age where I actually feel like they would kill me in my sleep if I told someone the Parent Corner thing. They're at the age where they need a Nissan. Both of our kids, I know our oldest are two months apart, right?
Starting point is 00:55:04 Getting licenses. Well, your son now, it's ridiculous. I saw him at your 50th birthday party. We took a picture. I should put up the picture of me and Archie. Your son is like, he's like 6'3 and a half. No, he's 6'2. 6'3? 6'2,
Starting point is 00:55:19 190 or something. Yeah. Well, yeah. I was looking up at him. Handsome, strapping guy playing a little football this year. 190 or something. Yeah. Were you? Maybe. I was looking up at him. Yeah. Handsome, strapping guy playing a little football this year. He loves it. He made a tackle. He loves football.
Starting point is 00:55:32 Loves the football so much. It's great. So does my son. I mean, you're right. Like, you got, I don't know why, but you were into the watching the kids' sports, even though we have kids the same age. Like, I think your daughter got involved in competitive, ultra competitive sports before my son did. And so you're like, there's nothing bad. I'm like,
Starting point is 00:55:52 why are you missing Sunday games? And now you realize like, holy shit, Friday night, football under the lights, watching your kid. There's just nothing at all better. I love it. Did you try to figure out how to bet on it or no? What's the South Bay football gambling scene? I'm actually too nervous. I'm actually too nervous to bet on it. Well, I've seen you nervous with action. All right, parent corner, go ahead. You have the floor. All right. Well, what do you want to hear? Do you want to hear about my oldest failing his driving test leading to the biggest argument in the family history? You want to hear about- Well, my oldest failed her driving test as well. Oh, good. What's in the family history you want to hear about my oldest failed her driving test oh you did oh good in the water i don't know what was the argument wait a minute did yours not care like mine did like mine just like all right i'll just take it again it's like shit what the
Starting point is 00:56:34 what now i still have to wake up at seven in the morning and drive you to film lessons for whatever for your football like this sucks on a saturday i don't want to i don't want to do this like i'll take it again when of course, DMV is backed up and he now can't do it again until October, even though he was eligible a week later. He really blew this. Oh, yeah. Oh, this is a disaster. Critical error, it was called, in changing lanes, whatever he did changing lanes. How did your daughter fail? Wait, so why did it lead to a fight? You were just completely
Starting point is 00:57:04 outraged and furious at him or was your wife mad? Wait, so why did it lead to a fight? You were just completely outraged and furious at him? I think it wasn't even me. Who was madder? No, it was my wife. She was mad because it wasn't even, it was just how nonplussed he was about it. He's like, all right, I'll just do it. And we're looking at each other like,
Starting point is 00:57:16 we're sick of picking you up at midnight and your friend's 20 minutes away. Like, how is this okay? I don't know. But I don't know. Yeah, he thinks you're the Uber. He just thinks you're like a car service. Did you have the same kind of thing?
Starting point is 00:57:30 I don't know. My daughter didn't take her test seriously and failed. She actually came on this podcast and we talked about it. She's very embarrassed about it. She came the week of the driving test. Saturday night she goes to a party brings her purse
Starting point is 00:57:48 her purse has the driver's permit in it leaves the purse at the front somebody takes the purse oh no she's like a whole thing she's crying in the car my purse is gone
Starting point is 00:58:03 she made it seem like she was going to this party that had like, I don't know, 15 people in it. It turns out there was like 100. And so this led to a whole life lesson thing of like, because my daughter is this nice, trusting person. Right. And it's like, hey, you can't like, this isn't like Pollyanna world. Like you leave your purse in a house and there's 100 plus people at the thing. Somebody's just going to take the purse, cancel their credit cards. My wife is furious because the test is in four days.
Starting point is 00:58:34 So now they have to go to DMV on a Tuesday to try to get the new permit. They get the new permit. They go to do the test on Wednesday. The person at the DMV on Tuesday forgot to sign the permit. They go to do the test on Wednesday. The person at the DMV on Tuesday forgot to sign the permit. They're driving home. My wife is the maddest she's ever been at my daughter, all time. Honestly, I was worried she was just going to steer the car into a divider just to take out Zoe's side of the car. It is ironic how angry they are while they're driving and they're angry about those telling the real thing. They're calling us. They're texting us. They're like,
Starting point is 00:59:02 wait, you're driving 45 miles an hour. So they had to drive to Redondo on a Thursday. Long story short, my daughter got the license and it's life altering. She just goes. She's gone. Of course. Of course. It's the best. Don't drink or it's over. We never see her anymore. She's just like, I'm going here and she's gone. Don't tell me. I still have to wait
Starting point is 00:59:20 that if he passes. But that, I don't even know. Do we want to, I mean that could be my parent corner, but I did have a- No, I think we can do a double parent corner. Okay. By the way,
Starting point is 00:59:30 the key with the driver's test thing is you just have to really humiliate them. Yeah. It's got to be just constant jokes where you have to like raise their competitiveness about it. Yeah, you're right. You're right.
Starting point is 00:59:39 You got to coach them up a little. Yeah. Speaking of coaching them up, you know, my middle son, Jack, is a tremendous troll, much like me. Like that one. I know,
Starting point is 00:59:47 I know that's my kid. Like the size doesn't really matter. He roots for the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was like the Dodgers. I'm like, I like, I bite my tongue. I don't say anything,
Starting point is 00:59:55 but this new infatuation is the Arizona Rattlers. Do you even know what that is? So in a rattler, I honestly don't know what that is. It's the arena team. and they're in arizona and he all of a sudden he's like he got some money on the like amazon gift card and the hats are coming in and the arizona and you can't even watch these games except for on youtube and he's watching them and they're in the playoffs and they're obviously playing arizona and my friend
Starting point is 01:00:20 harry you know harry he lives in arizona and Jack's like, I want to go to one of these games, one of these playoff games. I'm like, we're not going. It's too hot. I have too much shit to do. I can't give up a Saturday or Sunday whenever they play. He wants to go to a Rattlers game during the 110 degree heat? That's it. He wants to go. And he's now
Starting point is 01:00:39 side texting and having a conversation with Harry. And Harry's like, like look i'll fly in southwest and i'll take them and like harry came here and watched the kids a few weeks ago he was coughing up a storm they were sick for weeks afterwards and we all thought they had covid they took a covid test like every 11 minutes and like thankfully they didn't have it but they were sicker than any kid who had covid around the neighborhood like it was i was like harry i'm not letting them fly with you so like jack is very upset by this. The Rattlers, as we're recording, I'm looking, the Rattlers are
Starting point is 01:01:11 in the final. They won 57-55. Jack just yelled out, let out a scream. They beat the Duke City Gladiators. Rattlers, 57. Duke City Gladiators, 55. Sorry, Jack, you're not going to the finals in Arizona. My wife forbids it. It does not happen. You could have made up all those team names in that entire story, and I would have no idea. You know, maybe he's making it up, too. I don't even know.
Starting point is 01:01:36 The Arizona Rattlers. Yeah, this could be a joke on me. Jesus. What do the hats look like? Are they nice? No, they're not that nice. Like they're orange and they're not nice at all. My son, who grew nine inches during the pandemic.
Starting point is 01:01:56 Wow. Five foot nine. And as fancies himself now as like he's out and about and, um, decides comes back. He's on a skateboard. He's always gone. He's like, just out.
Starting point is 01:02:11 He's like basically like what we were like in the seventies and eighties where you're, you know, basically nobody does this anymore except my kids. Like I'm just out, I'm going out. I'm going to do this and do that. Right.
Starting point is 01:02:21 Has been going to this downtown where these kids from a school I won't name, um, end up going after school and he's been skating around because his goal was to just try to quote unquote, meet some people in the neighborhood, but maybe meet whoever and somehow made friends with all these different people. now has it seems like somebody he's at least hanging out with but he's 13 he's gonna kill you I was terrified to talk to
Starting point is 01:02:55 any girl when I was 13 weren't you or am I crazy like what is going on yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah how does he have confidence with girls already I don't get it so we don't know what's going on. And he's just, it's like, he's like 19. I don't know what happened. I know he was born in 2007 because I was there.
Starting point is 01:03:14 We'll bring him on. Let's find out what the hell happened. I don't get it. He might've been involved in a love triangle this summer. There might've been, Zoe might've had to get involved. So somebody getting angry. I just don't know what's in store for me. He's only going into the eighth grade.
Starting point is 01:03:31 So I think we have to send him to an all-boys school. Oh, really? Yeah. I don't think he can go to a co-ed school. You can do what you want, but he won't go to that, right?
Starting point is 01:03:43 I don't know. Well, he wants to play football. So there's an all-boys school that has football. That might solve some of the problems. Girls are going to be lining up. Yeah, that'll be good. We don't even know how to monitor it because we don't have any other friends
Starting point is 01:03:55 who are in a situation where we're like, so what do you guys do? Everybody's like, wait, he's not even in eighth grade yet, right? And it's like, why does he have to have a social life? I don't know. I liked when he was just playing video games with a broken foot, but now he's like, wait, isn't he? He's not even in eighth grade yet. Right. And he's like, why does he have to have a social life? I don't know. I liked when he was just playing video games with broken foot, but now he's out. I was just going to say our tons are very different, almost the same age. And yet, um, my, my son's sole goal is to make it to our Arizona Rattlers playoff game. Yeah. What happened to that stage with my son? Why isn't my son like becoming a fan of the reader? He's out on a skateboard trying
Starting point is 01:04:25 to meet 10th graders. I don't get it. There will be more to come on Parent Corner. I feel like I might get in trouble with some of it, but this is a segment. We've had this segment. We talk about our kids. We've got to do it. You may have to have another kid.
Starting point is 01:04:42 The other two are too dangerous now for you to be spinning these yarns. We have to figure it. You may have to have another kid. The other two are too dangerous now for you to be spinning these yarns. We have to figure out who is the MVP of Parent Corner this year, because I think Ben's going to have a really strong year, but also young Harrison. How old is Harrison now? Seven. He's good too. Yeah. He turns eight in December. Yeah. Yeah. That's a great Parent Corner age. Ben was up to a lot of stuff. He's got a lot of good ones. He smashed his iPad. We're not sure if on purpose or not with the golf club the other day, which was up to a lot of stuff. He's got a lot of good ones. He smashed his iPad. We're not sure if on purpose or not with the golf club the other day, which was going to be my backup story, but
Starting point is 01:05:10 we'll save that for another time. Today's Parent Corner is brought to you by Nissan. However you get back outdoors, whatever rugged terrain you take on, the Nissan Pathfinder can handle it. Return to rugged in the all-new 2022 Nissan Pathfinder. Learn more at NissanUSA.com. Available intelligent 4x4.
Starting point is 01:05:28 Cannot prevent collisions or provide enhanced traction in all conditions. Always monitor traffic and weather conditions. All right. So you can hear Sal on the Extra Points pod. He's still doing Against All Odds with our friends. Yes. The Parlay Kid and Harry and Brother Bri. points pod he's still doing against all odds with our friends yes we go to the kid and harry and brother brother bry we break down all the divisions afce much like we did with simmons
Starting point is 01:05:51 just now but it's uh hours and hours long go check it out extra points.com these give guys give out losing picks every single day but they're free so uh gobble them up right there and uh yeah fox bet live kind of on this week. And I think I'm on The Herd on Tuesday. The Herd. I've ran into Coward. He said he had a very nice time with you. That Ben Simmons.
Starting point is 01:06:14 Ben Simmons knows so much about wrestling. He chewed my ear off about all the acrobatics and what's going on. He loved it. So Ben sat next to him and was just telling Coward for three hours what was happening. Coward, it was like an alien had dropped into the arena who just had no concept of anything. So Ben would be like,
Starting point is 01:06:35 yeah, so when they go out, that guy's going to go through the announcer's table and then it would happen. And Coward thought he was like, you know, like he could see the future. He didn't understand how Ben knew all the things that were going to happen, but he doesn't understand wrestling.
Starting point is 01:06:49 So it's like, this is what, do you care about CM Punk coming back or no? I think it's fun, but I wish you give our pal. And I know you had Michael Maui on Stephen Amell. CM Punk was on, uh,
Starting point is 01:06:59 uh, heels on stars that work. I don't know. He's Ricky Rabies. You had, so I had O'Malley and you had Stephen Amell. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, we're,
Starting point is 01:07:07 but apparently Heels is getting renewed. So we did our job. I love it. It's a great show. I can't wait to watch tonight. Oh, it's so good. Tonight.
Starting point is 01:07:13 Yep. Check it out. I'm re-watching Succession as well. I'm getting ready. You are? Oh, yeah. I gotta say. Is that up in October?
Starting point is 01:07:21 Is that up next month? Yeah, it's coming. Season one is way, the first four episodes are way better than I thought they were because watching it
Starting point is 01:07:28 in the moment there's so many new characters remember people were like oh that really got going in episode five that show was good episode one it was just
Starting point is 01:07:38 now you know the characters and you watch the rewatch was great such a good show really alright excited for it a lot of good shows
Starting point is 01:07:44 coming back Billions is coming back we got it. A lot of good shows coming back. Billions is coming back. We got, what's the other one that's coming back this fall? It's the third one. Is it, what do you call it? You can't remember.
Starting point is 01:07:55 What, the Upside Down? What's it called there? Stranger Things? Upside Down? Stranger Things. Yeah, I don't know.
Starting point is 01:08:00 Did you watch, did your family watch Outer Banks or no? No. It's good? Oh, I'm surprised. Outer Banks, yeah. It was like kind of the OC crossed with Fast and Furious and Mallory Rubin's words.
Starting point is 01:08:10 All right. Let me look that up. We'll be back. Good job by you. Next week. Good job by you. All right. Thanks to Cousin Sal.
Starting point is 01:08:18 Thanks to Kyle Creighton who produced this podcast. Thanks to everybody for the support for Guess the Lines for these last 15 years. Can't believe it. A decade and the support for Guess the Lines for these last 15 years. Can't believe it. A decade and a half with Guess the Lines. So we will be back on Tuesday in this space with another podcast. And then the rewatchables. We're not going to sleep on Labor Day. We have a rewatchables. It's the first TV show we've ever done. Miami Vice, Calderon's Return, the greatest two-parter, I think, in network TV history, but also an 80s movie that should count as an 80s movie even if it was on TV.
Starting point is 01:08:50 You still have time to watch it. It's available on Amazon or NBC's app, I think. So if you want to watch the Miami Vice pilot and then Calderon's Return, you have three hours to kill. There's no football. This is our last weekend with football. Why not? Knock yourself out.
Starting point is 01:09:04 That is, that's going to be an awesome pod. We taped it on Friday and it's one of my favorite ones. So there you go. See you on Tuesday and this week. I want to see them on the way. So I don't have a few years with him on the wayside
Starting point is 01:09:29 on the first I never said I don't have a few years

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