The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 2: Guess the Lines Week 1, Plus Favorite NFL Futures With Cousin Sal

Episode Date: September 4, 2023

In Part 2 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Cousin Sal for their 17th year of Guess the Lines (1:37) before they run through some of their favorite NFL futures bets (49:28). Host: Bill Simmons Guest: Cousin Sal Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, Guess the Lines, year 17. That's next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good.

I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's going to be good. And then trying to back what you think in those first few weeks and then zag the other way. If you were wrong, you could bet on new and fun markets on FanDuel, like to catch your pass, same game parlays, highest scoring game across the Sunday slate, offensive TDs, the next drive. They have so much stuff.

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This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey, and it's on

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and fantasy football content and some great podcasts, including the Ringer Fantasy Football Show, Ryan Rosillo, the Ringer NFL Show, the Ringer Gambling Show. We are covering football every which way. You can read a bunch of great pieces on the website as well.

And we did AFC and NFC Overrunners on this podcast with Sal. Both of those shows are running on FanDuel TV on Monday morning, 10 a.m., Tuesday morning, same thing. You can actually watch us as we are just making magic with this podcast. Speaking of podcasts, Strike Force 5, the five late night hosts, Jimmy, Jimmy, Seth,

Steven, John, they put up a second episode over the weekend, and I think they're going to be doing either two week or three week, depending on schedules. Going forward, a special limited run, all proceeds going to their staffs, and we love to have in this. Go check that out if If you, if you, uh, have not listened to any of those episodes yet coming up on this podcast. Oh yeah. It's time. Guess the lines week one first project. All right, Sal. Before we came on, we tried to do some math.

We've been doing this since 2007. It took us about 40 seconds to realize that's 17 years. This is our 17th year. Guess the lines, baby. I didn't even know we concluded that it was 17. I thought we just decided it doesn't matter. Let's move on. But yeah, 17.

We learned the truth at 17. Here we go. My son wasn't even born yet. Two of your kids weren't even born yet. We had two little toddlers, and now we're back. Heading toward 20. Hopefully, we can make it. So we did AFC and NFC already.

We're going to do Guess the Lines right now, and then we're going to do some futures at the end. Guess the Lines for the people who have never listened to this, and if you haven't, how dare you. Every Sunday night, Sal and I try to guess the betting lines for the upcoming football slate. Now, you look at these lines way ahead of time. I tried my hardest to avoid them and actually did. I avoided them. I sent you some guesses a week and a half ago. I still avoided them and then sent you

last night and then looked at them. And there were a couple of doozies that I was like, oh my God, I already had like two. Oh my God's in the slate. Well, we've had some controversial weeks and they're up ahead and behind us, but this week one is certainly right up there because it's very hard to avoid the line. You gave guesses and then you gave more guesses this morning. So I'm, I'd be surprised if I won. I'm always surprised if I win,

but yeah, we're doing this. We're actually recording this during the NBA draft. So I don't even know how, how this is going to turn out. The biggest variables are the two guys who may or may not play. We're taping this on Sunday afternoon, but you have Chris Jones for the Chiefs. They're playing Thursday night, the big Super Bowl champ spot against the Lions.

And then Bosa on the Niners. We don't know about him either. And they have a much tougher game. They're at Pittsburghburgh a team that uh if you heard the afc pod i'm a huge fan of so i i assume my guess is bosa plays i don't know about chris jones and it really it seems kind of ominous the closer we get right yeah he said he hopes to be at the wednesday prac that's all anyone ever says, right? They hope this. We hope the writer's strike ends. We hope that.

But I don't know. I don't even know how to gauge it because it really, it's like, how much adrenaline do you have before you're like, screw it, I'm getting out there. I don't care. We'll let the contract take care of itself, right? Or do the thing where you just skip the first game, and then there's 10 days until week two, and you don't want your team to lose,

but maybe you're hoping the defense doesn't look that awesome in week one and you become more valuable. He was the most destructive defensive player last year in the AFC, at least. It was between him and Parsons in the conversation and his team won the title. It felt like he took the championship belt

from Aaron Donald just because of that Rams season. But you take him out of there and then you look at the Lions, who at least we know they're going to have a good offense. Just remove him. And that makes that Thursday night game. Chiefs-Lions. Neither of us love the Lions

as a little too much hype. Not sure about their defense, but I don't mind this spot if there's no Chris Jones. So what do we do? How do we figure this out? Well, I'm going Chris Jones is playing.

I think that's how it is. I have to be, I think I'm going to be positive for the iffy players and whether or not they suit up. Right. And I just, so my,

and my line reflects that I have minus seven for this game for the Chiefs at home defending their title, defending their turf. You have minus seven for this game for the Chiefs at home, defending their title, defending their turf. And I went six, which makes the Chiefs almost immediately the most obvious tease of all time, which scares me as well. And we've seen this. This Thursday night game is all over the map with where it goes.

Think about last year, the year before. It's always weird. It's always discombobulated. It's always sloppy. I don't love laying points in general. Chiefs have all this wide receiver stuff, but where are you leaning? Well, the league does this on purpose, right? For idiots like me and you, mostly me.

They put a game like this on that makes you think. The line, by the way, is six and a half. So we split the first game. And maybe we just stop now. I'm happy splitting the year and splitting the week. But no, it's six and a half. So I swore off teasers for Lent or whatever years ago. And now I'm immediately thinking of a teaser.

Like, why couldn't they put it Jets Bills where it's almost the pick them or whatever? Like, of course, it's six and a half. Now I have to find a dance partner for the Chief thinking of a teaser. Like, why couldn't they put it Jets-Bills where it's almost the pick-em or whatever? Like, of course it's six and a half. Now I have to find a dance partner for the Chiefs on a teaser. So I don't know. Again, I think plus seven and a half looks juicy for Detroit. But again, six and a half, I'm looking at Kansas City winning and defending their title in game one. Well, I sent you a possible teaser for a same game parlay where we need the

four legs. And it was right. It was like a lions going to plus 11 and a half adjusted Kelsey scoring anytime Gibbs, the rookie and the lions getting 39 and a half over rushing yards. And then like a super low total points. And that was like three to one. And I, I like the adjusted line with the lions in this, I think is where I'm kind of leaning. All right. Well, are we getting that out now or does that come out at the end? Well,

we'll decide midweek. Yeah. We'll decide. Oh, I see. But I, I don't know. That was the one I was leaning toward.

Did you like, is there one you like more than that? Yeah, I like that. I think I said, I'd switch it to lions over 23 and a half points versus plus. What'd you have? Like 11.5 or something? Oh, Lions 11.5 alternate line, yeah. Yeah, you had the alternate line. I hate the possibility of a late touchdown for the Chiefs, but the road teams have done better this game.

Oh, that would never happen to us, Sal. Why would there be a Chief touchdown at the end that would screw us? That's never happened to us once. Because the Chiefs never cover. They didn't cover it all last year. And now, of course, they're going to cover when we have double digits coming our way. But yeah, like I was going to say, the road team, I think the Chiefs kind of put an end to that streak of home teams just dominating this Thursday game, this first Thursday game, right? They went into Foxborough and beat your Patriots. And since then, the road teams have been game. Bills obviously crushed the Rams last year. Yeah, there's a weird

energy with those first games because it's emotional because it's the teams come back. I've been to, I think at least two of them. And it kind of crests early and then all of a sudden it's a football game and it's sloppy and it's not the advantage you would think it is. And in general, home field doesn't seem to matter as much. We have all this evidence that we've stared at year after year about just gravitate toward

underdogs the first couple of weeks. Just do it. Don't try to outsmart what has been year after year, the system, the system, the system. Grab the points, grab the points, grab the points. I might talk myself into the Lions with this game by Thursday. If there's no Chris Jones, if not maybe a stay away or, or some sort of a chiefs tease or whatever, but I'm excited to see this. I want to see if the, is the lions defense going to be a disaster, decent, a tiny bit better than we thought. What is it? And then how do they use Gibbs is the end of that. I mean, Gibbs is, we have a bunch of fantasy drafts this week. I know you have one in a tiny bit better than we thought what is it and then how do they use Gibbs is the other thing I mean Gibbs is we have a bunch of fantasy drafts this week I know you have one in a little bit Gibbs is being drafted like he's like a top eight running back so um I have no we've never

even seen him so he's the big x factor for me yeah I know and I'm trying to think like I feel like Najee Harris was the same way a few years ago. Everybody has his touchdown total was high. His yardage total was high. I was like, wow, he hasn't even played yet. I know he's a first-round pick, but let's calm down with the running backs. They get paid $7 an hour for a reason. And I feel like the Lions had a big advantage at running back anyway last year. So similar to what the Falcons did, maybe they didn't need to draft Gibbs, but also he could be exciting and break some

for big yardage gains. Well, I don't like the Lions this season and it would be dumb to take the money line with them. So who knows? We'll know as we get closer with Chris Jodes. Sunday marquee. I have Eagles Pats as the Sunday marquee. I think, you know, it's the it's the late game, the 125 game here on the West Coast. The Eagles defending Super Bowl runner-ups. Pats, Belichick, it's in New England. It's certainly the most interesting, I have no idea what's going to happen game.

I mean, there's a world where the Eagles just destroy the Pats, and the Pats can't block, and they're pass rush. But I have the Eagles as real favorites in this, which perennially has not been great if you're betting against the Patriots. I had the Eagles minus three and a half in New England. What did you have? I have that exact number, and that's what it is. It's three and a half, so we're 0-0-2 right now.

And I thought I was going a little low for the sake of, all right, there's going to be Pat's money on there. This should be higher. I still think it should be higher. I don't know if it'll get higher, but this is like the only week you could really just go by, typically go by the over-under wind projections, right? In making a line. So the Eagles is 11 and a half and the Patriots is seven and a half.

That's a big, big, big margin there. I realize the Patriots are home. I think they're honoring Brady, right? Right. Like all weekend or something. But I feel like someone knows something to make this lower than, you know, the NFC champs giving more than a team that's not supposed to even get to 500. Yeah.

And I'm not sure how much home field advantage even means with the Patriots. It certainly hasn't meant an incredible amount the last few years. I want to see what happens with the offensive line. Like I know Cole Stranges was practicing again on Wenu, the other guard. I think I'm going to go out on a limb and say they need both guards.

They were making these trades, trading six round picks and players for extra offensive line depth. I think that really scared off a lot of Pats fans, including me, because I was thinking they could win the division. But I think it'd be hypocritical to say that if you're worried about the Jets offensive line, you can't be worried about this Pats offensive line. There's going to be some, they're going to be doing some weird stuff in this game.

It feels like they're going to be doing a lot of RPOs and just try to keep that Eagles defense on the field, test them, run on them, and try to have these long drives. But I know we're going to talk about this later with the futures. I just think the Eagles have the best offense in the league. And we're going to find out right away if this Pat's defense, how real it is. I am on the nine out of 10, I believe in this Pat's defense. Other people are less low, but they can cover. They're way faster. On the flip side, running quarterbacks have murdered them season after season for the last four.

So I would not bet this game. It's a stay away to me. What about the emotion of the Brady thing? Those are the intangibles, right? You're not going to find any data. Warren Sharpe's not going to dig that up. But I really feel like whenever the giants retire LTS number or somebody else,

I feel like anytime the Cowboys try to do something like this, it's like that the players don't get up for the game or it just affects them in an odd way, you know? Uh, and it's not even like Brady's dead or anything, but do you, do you feel like that could be part of like the,

that could take the focus away from beating the Eagles? It does change the energy a little bit. I think the thing that worries me is just if Mac's not that good. And then there's Brady right there, the greatest quarterback of all time. And then Mac starts out. He's got to come in. Can they get him a jersey by halftime?

Yeah. It's just like a weird vibe. So, you know, Mac had a great summer and preseason. Like there's no question. Come in. Can they get him in Jersey by halftime? Yeah, it's just like a weird vibe. So, you know, Mac had a great summer and preseason. Like, there's no question. As bad and rocky and scary as the last preseason was, I think this time around,

it's been a lot better. So they feel good about them. I think their receivers are better than people realize, but it's going to come down to can they block that Eagles front four? I think this is an awful first week matchup

for them, and I kind of factored it into what I was thinking of them. I'd be surprised if they won this game, but you're right. Brady, Belichick, Belichick wins. Brady hugging him at the end. Brady, him, and Mac Jones. There is some stuff. It's nice. It's going to be emotional.

I think, and they already said, they're giving him this expensive spy camera and like a cell phone replica of the one he tossed in the trash when he was being investigated by the league. So like they're showering him with all these gifts.

That's not funny at all. You know what? The first year we did Guess the Lines, I think that was like the third, the second week. We did one Guess the Lines

and then heading into week two, Spy Gate had already happened and we were already yelling at each other about it. That's right. I'm glad we came to an understanding. That's going to be a great game. In the old days, I would say what an unbelievable Buck Aikman game, but those guys

aren't on Fox anymore. Right. I have three watchables, and then you can tell me if a fourth one is a watchable or not. The first one, 49ers-Steelers, which I think was the other

possible marquee game. This is in Pittsburgh. There's been some pretty pitch count stuff during the preseason that's a concern. There's been some rumors about McCaffrey's

leg. And if you're reading between the lines, because I was reading everything because I was really thinking about a Niners number one seed, a Niners 13 plus wins. Some of the McCaffrey stuff scares me a little bit. They're like, no, no, there's going to be a lot of Mitchell this year. And it's a marathon, not a sprint. Just things you don't say if you're like, McCaffrey's in the greatest shape of his life. There's no Bosa. And I love the Steelers. And the Steelers are one of the few teams

that still have a home field advantage, right? Sure. Yeah, for sure. But I love the 49ers more than I think most people. And I get it with McCaffrey and all these guys that are due for an injury. And you got Mr. Irrelevant with a UCL injury. It wouldn't make sense that they would be too big a favorite,

but I would give it the full three. I'd pick San Francisco minus three here. I mean, I think this defense should be at least three whenever they play a bottom third quarterback. I'm sorry. I know you have high hopes for the Steelers, but Kenny Pickett right now is the bottom third quarterback. And that said, when the Steelers win this game,

this is going to screw up months of research for me. This is going to be like, oh, I don't know crap. Okay, that's fine. Steelers won 24-10. Terrific. But I went three. You went two and a half, right? Yeah, and initially I was three,

and then I didn't realize that Bosa might not play. So I moved it to two and a half just because I don't see how it can be three if we don't know if Bosa's playing or not. So two and a half is the right. Maybe it's set up. Is it two and a half? It is two and a half. Yeah.

It is two and a half. So where do you think it ends up? Well, I think, again, it's this Bosa thing. We're sitting on the same thing as the Chiefs, right? But I think these big defenders are worth a half half a point at least for the public right I don't know what once the Sharps get in there uh it might be a different story but I could see it ticking towards three if you get a commitment from Bosa early in the week I can't wait to see the Sharps on this game because I think this is going to be one of the lively sharp games one way or the other

either they're going to go hard on Steelers or the other way and just hard on the Niners and it goes three and a half. I can't wait to watch this game. This is going to be an awesome game. And by the way, Brock Purdy, who you and I were driving the bandwagon for last year, this is a tough spot coming off that elbow injury and his season-abrupt landing last year.

You're throwing him in. That Pittsburgh defense is going to, I think, going to pressure a lot of quarterbacks this year, but just in general, it's pretty feisty in Pittsburgh with a lot of sound outdoors. We're going to learn a lot about him too. I can't wait for that game. Second one. It could be, just real quick. It could be very low scoring. You know, Tomlin has this team ready for these games, right? The Steelers upset Cincinnati. I'm pretty sure it was in Cincinnati last year, game one. So they'll be up against.

Second one I have, and this is just ridiculous that this is in the watchables. Normally we have it for competitiveness and are these two teams playoff teams? I have Jags at Indianapolis as an absolute watchable because of the Jags offense and the Richardson thing. You know, we've seen in baseball, these guys that are just coming in like Eli De La Cruz and, you know, these new guys come in and you're like, oh, new guy, this is really fun.

And I don't know what to expect from Richardson. I also, we're going to talk later when we do the futures. Like, I'm down on the Colts and I kind of want to watch them and see how bad is this going to be for them? Because they don't have a lot of talent and Richardson just might be super raw. So this feels like it could be the overaction game one way or the other. The Jaguars, it's like a 38 to three shellacking. And we're like, oh my God, Jaguars, here they come.

Or the Richardson like plays really well. And it turns into like a Colorado TCU thing yesterday. We're like, oh my God, Jaguars, here they come. Or the Richardson plays really well, and it turns into a Colorado TCU thing yesterday. We're like, oh, my God, Richardson, okay, he's here. So I had the Jags minus four. I have no idea. I don't know if I'm close, but I want to see this game. You're pretty close.

I was closer. I said four and a half, and it is exactly four and a half. And I don't even love the Jaguars this year, and I'm not fun, so I'm going to pick against probably all the rookie quarterbacks in week one. I just, I don't know. It just would make sense

that it would take at least a half a game for them to catch up, right? Against the division champion. So I don't mind that as a teaser game either. I just think this whole, you know, we talked about in the AFC previews, I think this is the cursed franchise, we talked about in the AFC previews, I think this is the cursed franchise, right?

With the gambling scandal and with the Jonathan Taylor and the owner and everything else. So, it's just a matter of time before we see sewage

running down the sideline there, much like it happened in Washington. So, would you go curse of Andrew Luck here? Are we here yet? It's been five years. Do you want to bring him in?

Oh, should we bring him in? Andrew the Giant? I forgot about that. I think he's here. He's on Riverside waiting to talk to us. Wow. He is? Okay.

Okay, let's bring him in right now. Young man who hung things up early and much to the detriment of his team. I don't know if he'll be watching his former squad take on the Jaguars at RCA Dome or wherever the hell they play in Indianapolis. Andrew, the Giant, Locke. It's great to be here, guys. I don't believe in curses. I just feel like the players change every year, and they're doing their best.

And I think Anthony Richardson is really great. I dusted it off. That was Andrew the Giant Luck, everybody. You're good. You're good. Is there going to be an HBO doc on Andrew the Giant Luck about how he would take giant craps on the team plane and everything? Just much like Andre?

I'm going to pitch it when we get off the Zoom. Indy under five and a half wins, plus 200. Love it. Love it. How did they get to six wins? I like them lowest scoring team. I like them as one of the three or four that could be the odds aren't great, but for a few wins.

But yeah, I think they have a tragic season here. Last watchable is Chargers-Dolphins. Just a great game. And it's in LA, which means we'll probably have, what do you think, 60% Miami fans? 55%? Yeah, I think you start the number at 60 at any team that's been around for more than 30 years, 40 years, right?

Yeah, that's fair. We get a healthy team. We get a Chargers team that's getting a ton of hype with the new offensive coordinator. And people, the football nerds are really kind of in on this Chargers team,

mostly because of Herbert. And I don't totally see it, but we're going to find out. I, because they don't have a home field advantage. I just went Chargers minus three. What'd you have? Yeah,

I had three also. I felt this was the easiest line to guess of the week. Both teams sit at nine and a half wins for, you know, over under, you know, what you would think. So then you would think that you give the home team the full three-point advantage, but you don't.

Anyway, we screwed up the easiest guess of the week. It's two and a half. So they docked them a half point because half of the fans at this game are going to be rooting for the Dolphins and wearing two jerseys and the Marino jerseys. Okay. All right, let's take a break, and then we'll rip through the rest of the lines. Snap in action this NFL season with FanDuel, America's number one sports book. Right now,

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Bengals at Cleveland is the first one. Would you put this in the watchables? Did I make a mistake? I probably should have, right? Yeah, I like this one. Yeah, I like this one a lot. I mean, the Brownies are my team. Got to do big things for me to look smart this year.

Here's where I've landed on the Bengals. I know we're doing futures later. I think it's a slow start. People get scared, and I think they rally back like they did last year. And they might be my Super Bowl pick. Just spoiler alert for later. I have the Bengals by one and a half in Cleveland, and it's going to be right around there.

All right. It is right around there. I had two, and it's two and a half. So I get that one. Yeah, I was just looking at the difference. Again, I'm really hyped to this differential and win. So Cincinnati's 11 and a half. Cleveland's nine and a half.

But I do think this is going to be the sucker bet of the weekend. I agree with you. Bengals, slow start. Slow start last year. They lost the first two. Browns weren't even great. And they beat them. That was on Halloween.

They beat them by almost 20. So I think this potential for over-exaggeration of the week won game. However you would say that. I have that marked down as well. This has all the makings of the complete overreaction game. Bengals look Burrows barely practiced. Bengals look sloppy. Browns defense

looks awesome. Deshaun does enough. They have a really good game plan. They take the lead early. They're able to run the ball with Chubb and just kind of protect the lead and they win by like 10 and people are like, Oh my God, the Browns. Here we go. And I just think Bengals offensive line is and they win by like 10 and people are like, oh my God, the Browns, here we go. And I just think... I think this is offensive line is...

Yeah, Bengals' whole line is bad again. Like, oh my God, you know, Garrett and Z'Darrius Smith put them down six, seven times. Yeah, it could be all that. Yeah, that's a tough spot. Clearly, the Steelers or the Browns are going to win this week, possibly both.

If you gave me the over-under for which one of those, would you go 2-1 or 0? I think the over-under is 1. And I would go over, not under, if I had to pick a side on that. Next one, Saints-Titans. Unfortunately for me, Saints-Titans. Two teams I kind of like this year. I hate when you have the two teams playing in week one.

They kind of like it year. And I hate when you have the two teams playing in week one. They kind of like, it's in New Orleans. I think the Titans are, I probably screwed up this line because I think I'm a little higher on the Titans than others. I had the Saints by three and a half. And I think the Titans are,

are very, very sleepy. I'm just going to say that. Yeah. I landed on three and it is, it is three right now. I like both these teams too. Picked them both to win the division. In fact, if you

parlay those two together, you get plus 843 on Fandle. I think three is fair and I couldn't get off of it until we see something out of each team. We'll see. Derek Carr and Tannehill, I think one of the reasons the prices have been a little off, like the Titans line, the Titans to win the division right now is plus 310 and the Saints are plus 130. Tannehill's 35. People are like, Tannehill, what happens if he's not good? And then Carr didn't play well last year and ended up getting benched

and got sent packing. So I guess I don't feel like this is going to be an overreaction one way or the other because I think we're going to know in week one with those quarterbacks. If one of them looks like dog shit, to me, I'm like, oh,

maybe I was wrong. Next one, Falcons, Panthers. I am completely out on the Panthers. I don't know where you are, but I'm 100% out. We talked about that last week. This is in Atlanta, and this looks like another overreaction possibility where the Falcons' offense looks great, and they just lay the smack down,

and the Panthers look like a mess, and people start wondering, are they going to score 250 points this season? I have the Falcons by five and a half. Yeah, I went high too. I said four and a half and it's only, let me recheck this, but it's only three and a half. Yeah. It's still three and a half on Fandle. That's too low. I don't get it really. Right right so if you go against rookie quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks on the road especially right they've struggled for betters as the early season

like I think I saw one in 14 against the spread in the first three games or one something crazy something or in the last like a four and 13 sorry 23 percent in the first three games so why would I take a chance on a rookie quarterback I know Desmond Ritter's not like, 23% in the first three games. So why would I take a chance

on a rookie quarterback? I know Desmond Ritter, it's not like he's been in the league for seven or eight years, so I'll lighten it up. Is that the difference? I think that's it. People are going to unblur their eyes and see that this line should be a little higher, and I'm not even high on the Falcons

this year. Me neither. I think it's a fear of Desmond Ritter bet. The over under in this game is 40. And that seems high to me too, because I still don't understand how Carolina is going to score this year. Nobody's been able to explain it to me with the rookie QB and probably the, you know, top two or three worst skill guys in the league. And Atlanta is going to be a ball control running thing. I guess the case would be Carolina's defense is a good defense. I mean, they have a lot of blue chip red trip guys in that D.

So maybe they keep them close. I doubt it. Broncos Raiders is our next one. I have this as a fairly watchable, not a poopfecta because I think the, uh, the Wilson piece of this, right? Don't you want to just see it for four quarters? Where are we with this guy? Tap to see hustle and bustle.

Exactly right. Are you scrambling out to both sides? Are you using your legs? Are you beating pass rushers? Are you creating extra time for yourself? Where are we ultimately going? And I think we're probably going to know what that went to. The Broncos are a little banged up. I don't like this Raiders team at all. I had the

Broncos by four in Denver. We both nailed it. It is four. Yeah. I feel like the coach gets almost a point here, right? I feel like Sean Payton's getting almost a full point. I think normally it would be like, all right, week one, we saw what Denver did last year. Hustle and bustle was high kneeing it on the airplanes and everybody's laughing at them. The Raiders actually beat them twice last year. So why this has to stay on three until Jimmy G or whoever gives us reason not to, but it's a full four. Is that the one? I think it's the biggest coach move on the board right now. Yeah. So we've talked forever about coach over replacement. I think I, I think once upon a time I did it, I named it when I was writing after Raheem Morris and it was like, uh, wins, wins above Raheem Morris and called it like

warm or worm, something like that. It was like 10, 12 years ago, but this has been one of the safest, you know, kind of predictive things to do. And last year it hit with day ball and it hit with Doug Peterson. And we, I was just desperately trying to find the team this year. And you're just trying to talk yourself into this Broncos team. Like we talked about in the AFC pod and I just can't get there. And I get, I get all the reasons hack it to Sean Payton should be worth five wins. But if Wilson is just continuing to go south, and a lot of people are on this new coach thing now too, so maybe that's a good reason to zag against it. Or maybe it's Houston. Houston could be the one where they go from three wins to seven

or eight, and that's kind of the new coach bump. But I don't see the new coach thing this year, Sal. Yeah, well, it's interesting because usually the hard knocks tax, as we will, like, oh, boy, everybody's in love with the hard knocks team. So they're over under the juice. It's going to be pounded up, bet the over for whatever hard knocks team. But I feel like the hard knocks bias actually worked in Denver's favor as we got to meet Nate Hackett. Right? Yeah. Once we saw how actually bad he was, it's going to go up the other way, affect the team that he left even more. Yeah. Even though I think we saw enough from last year, but no, now there's tape of him being stupid. And I don't know what these little, these grab ass games he's playing

with all these players. So I think it is going to make a difference. I actually think Sean Payton, I like him for coach of the year and all that stuff because he has a chance to bring this team from garbage to nine wins or so. That might be the one division you can make the

wild card in or win nine games and not have to win to get that honor. They both won it without getting the division either. I just think I just don't see it. I don without getting the division either. I just think... I just don't see it. I don't see the Wilson thing. I don't think as good of a coach as Peyton is,

I don't think he can work the magic. And by the way, if... And I love the new coach thing. I feel like I was one of the first to really get super overexcited about this. If he pulls it off with this Denver team, then that's just it. You got to pencil it in.

Like one of the things I try to do with the playoff teams this year is it's just half go out, half new ones come in. And that's just the rule. And you just got to, even if it doesn't feel right, I was making fun of Ben Zolak for this

on our Ringer NFL show. He had all seven AFC teams coming back. I'm like, that's just never happening. And he's like, well, maybe there'll be a new trend where they we just run it back without the playoff teams I was like all right at least that's an argument but we just year after year we see this where you just got to remove half the playoff teams you just have to because they never come back um so that would be another case for Denver yeah we talked about this on the AFC preview, but I bet part of Sean Payton

hopes that Russ tanks and tanks early so he could put Jared Stidham in there. And then he just looks like a real hero bringing that team from rags to riches, right? If Jared Stidham, who they paid pretty well for a backup, two years, $10 million. So, you know,

I don't think he's just a shiny piece on the sideline. They could put him right in, I think, if things go south. I think one thing with the new coach theory with them is has a new coach where we've had all the things in place for the new coach bump ever had to deal with a situation where his team traded two first round picks,

some other picks, and a whole bunch of other stuff for one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. That's a pretty, pretty crazy variable. And injuries, as you mentioned. Last one, Packers-Bears.

This is in Chicago. I like the Packers a hundred times more than you. I love this spot for the Packers. There's a Fando bet, and I know we're doing the Packers. There's, there's a Fando bet. I know we're doing the futures later, but there's a bet on Fando. Green Bay will have more wins than Chicago for the year.

So plus one 22. I have that one highlighted asterisk. I prick blood out of my finger and put the blood on the back. That's how much I love that bet. Green Bay will have more wins than Chicago this year. I have for this game. I think the, that's a nice number, by the way.

Sorry. That's a nice number considering they're both seven and a half, right? For over-under wins. Totally. They're getting a plus for that. Yeah. And the team, I know it's largely due to Aaron Rodgers, but Bears haven't beaten them since 2018. So yeah, that's a fun one. I think the ownership carries over

through quarterbacks. I think it's like when you buy a house and you, if there's spirits in the house or anything else, you just get the spirits. Packers, I have favorites. Ayahuasca spirits, yeah. I have Packers minus two and a half in Chicago. Yeah, you went a little high.

I went high too. Well, I went the wrong way. I had Packers one and a half and it's Bears minus one. My goodness. Really? Oh, my God. Yeah. Okay.

Wow. Well, if you like the plus 122 or whatever you said it was, I think that's the way to go. Take the Packers in this game. But either way, I think this is the strongest candidate for biggest overreaction game of the week. No matter what happens, this is going to be. Yeah.

Wow. I just don't agree with that line at all. I'll be interested if the Sharps come flying in on Saturday and Sunday in the Packers. Okay. Poop Fecta. We have four games. And sadly, there's a bunch of Poop Fecta teams this year. I think the Poop Fecta is going to be a little little little

virgining this year. First one. Yeah. Ravens Texans in Baltimore. Who knows? This line is going to be way too high and I'm not betting it. I'm not putting the Ravens in a tease. Just saying that coming out of the gate. I have Ravens by nine and I think that might be too low.

I had nine and a half and it's ten. I swear I did. I believe you. Again, rookie quarterback on the road. A ton of points early on, but I think, I look back, seven games were decided by nine or more points week one. That said, Ravens at home, five

and three, five and four, five and three the last three years. I don't know. Maybe it is a little high. And a pretty, you know, pretty iffy defense, especially with Humphrey out and a bunch of new people in there and they lost some guys.

I don't know. I'm looking, I'm, I kept the Fando app open. And as we guess each one, I'm going down and looking the Texans are plus, they're plus 10 and plus three 70 for the money line. And to me, this is a possible, you know, fuck it bet.

Yeah. I think it's like the value of CJ Stroud on the road at plus 370 is better than the value of like Bryce Young on the road at Atlanta. Right. So yeah, that might be something to look at. I just think that line's too high. I think that line should be like seven. Vikings are home for the Bucs.

Do you like this Vikings team? You picked them to win the division. I don't think either of us like this Bucs team. Have they announced who the quarterback's going to be the Bucs? Did they say? It's going to be Mayfield, right? I thought it was Baker.

Yeah. Yeah. And I love this Minnesota. I absolutely adore how everyone abandoned them this year. I get it that they were 11-0 in one-score games, but to go from 13 wins to nine wins, which is what would put them over, I think this is a terrific teaser game

if you guys are into those things. And yeah, like you said, Baker 0-6 on the road last year, 11-32 on the road his last 43. So, nice spot for the Vikings. And yeah, we haven't guessed the line yet. I have the Vikings by 6.5 and I'm going to

actually have to physically restrain myself from not putting them in a tease. I'm going to restrain myself by my gambling straight jacket on this Mayfield thing, that one Thursday night game when he absolutely screwed us to smithereens in every orifice on that Thursday night game when they had that crazy comeback, which was so stupid because the game should have been over. And if that doesn't happen, we're all like, wow, Baker

Mayfield is never going to be a starting quarterback again. Put him in the broadcast booth. This guy's destined for bigger and better things. Like just let's get it going. Forget this quarterback thing. But since they won that game, now he's starting for Tampa. And I think this is one of the great gambling opportunities. These first couple of weeks, they already lost Jensen for the year. Not even sure what their offensive line is going to look like. Mike Evans gave them a week one contract deadline or that's it. They're not going to negotiate anymore. And I like the Vikes in this spot too, but I really don't want to throw them in a tease. I don't want to have Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Connell in a tease. No. I'm not going to restrain myself. I'm going to have them in a dozen teasers. Nine of them will probably have lost because I'll have them with some Saturday college game that, you know, tennis,

US Open or some nonsense. But yeah, I think you have to treat Baker as a rookie quarterback. Like if I don't like the rookie quarterbacks on the road, I certainly don't like Baker on the road. And yeah, so I said I went high though. I said seven and a half that ended up being high. What'd you say? seven and a half. That ended up being high.

What'd you say? Six and a half? Yeah. It's six. It's only six. So they are trying to really end for sure. Yeah, you got that one. I'm going to make one dumb small prediction each week on Guest Lines.

And Kyle can cut them together at the end of the year. Prediction for week one. Mike Evans ends up on the Jets by week six. In week one? Oh, by week six. By week six. I have no idea if these predictions, I'm just throwing these out there.

They're pulling them out of my ass predictions. It just feels like a Jetsy move, right? We're all in. We just need one more guy. Mike Evans. Evans and Wilson. Now we're done. we just need one more guy like evans evans and wilson now now we're done and they give up like i feel like they have 13 receivers don't they including rapper in the practice squad or whatever i didn't say these were good predictions i'm just throwing out one weird prediction each week i want to go like four for 18 in the predictions. Okay. Next one. This is the poop fact that he is poop fact.

The game. I can remember Washington hosting the awful Arizona Cardinals who, um, I, it'd be hard to believe they're not going to be the worst team in the league. After you saw that Jonathan Gannon clip, everyone's excited about Washington.

This is all the makings of the overreaction game for Washington, right? Where they went like 35 to three. Oh my God, Washington got rid of Snyder. Here we go. 12 wins. And then this is the highlight of the year. I have Washington favored by four and a half and that's probably too low.

I love that Gannon clip because it's like, do you have a fire in your belly? Who here has a fire in a belly? Josh Dobbs, do you have a fire in your belly? Like, no, we're supposed to win four and a half games and nobody thinks I should be the quarterback. Why would I have a fire in my belly? You know, you kill me here. I had three and a half.

I don't know why I'm higher on Arizona or lower on Washington than you are, but it's seven. This is a gigantic number and certainly the biggest favorite Washington is going to be all year. So you get this one. So who screws up that

Minnesota-Washington tease that everybody's going to do? Well, you know, also it's Sam Howell against Josh Dobbs, right? Sam Howell, terrific, but he beat up on third string defenses in preseason. Should they lay more than four points in a National Football

League game right now? I'm going to say National Football League instead of NFL. It makes me sound smarter. But I don't know. This looks like a John Oaks memorial. This team should never be favored by seven points or more

over anyone in the league kind of game. I'm going to be staying away. I already have enough cards, future money. The last one is also awful. Seattle versus the Rams. At least the Rams have just about all their guys. Although it said there's some weird I already have enough cards future money the last one is also awful Seattle versus the Rams at least the Rams have just about all their guys although it said there's some weird Cooper Cup stuff now

with hurt the same hamstring twice it's day to day but you know you just waiting for him to go on IR for four weeks it's screwed up all the fantasy drafts they were not deep to begin with and then you have the Seahawks team that I think you and I like a little more than most people. I even have, I bet on them in June or July to win

the division. I have in Seattle Seahawks favored by six. Yeah, you're going to get this. It was five and a half. I went higher. I thought it was seven. Um, you know, I'm very low on this Rams team. I, you know, and like you said, Cooper Cup, whenever you see a specialist in a different state for a hamstring injury, that's strange, isn't it? He has to go to Minnesota for a hamstring injury. I feel like the blue chippers on this Rams team are going to fall like dominoes, unfortunately. Starting with Cup, then Stafford, and Aaron Donald's going to be like, why didn't I retire when I could have? And you're going to be left with what's his name?

Stetson Bennett from Georgia. But they did play Seattle close last year. That's the only thing I'll say. They lost by four, and they lost by three last year to a much better team. And McVay has some kitchen sink in him. You just made me think of something, though. Is there any form of life

where somebody tells you that they have to see a specialist where that's a good thing? If you're like, oh, how's your youngest daughter doing? Well, we had to go see a specialist last week. I'd be like, oh, that doesn't sound good. Cooper Cups Hamstrings. Just the word specialist usually means something good is not happening. So I'm with you. Well, I think there's very few examples. I remember my friend came into, I don't know how he did it, but he came into $250 million and he saw a money market specialist.

And that was good. I think that was one of the few very top. I don't know. I don't want to give up. Yeah, those specialists work pretty good. Sunday night, your team. Your guys in New York. Well, New

Jersey. The Giants don't play in New York, but what a great Sunday night game this is going to be. Cowboys at Giants. You guys are going to be favored. You're starting to get some Super Bowl pick buzz, which I know you don't like. I know you don't like it.

There's been a lot of like, you know who I like this year the most? Dallas. But I do like them to be favored in this game. I have Cowboys by two and a half. What'd you have? I had three, and it's all the way up to three and a half. While I poo-poo all the Super

Bowl talk, I'm also not nervous about this game. We've just handled this team so easily over the last six years. We've won 11 out of 12. I say we because I lead the team in prayer. And by the way, I was the one who whispered, how about them Cowboys in Jimmy Johnson's ear before he took credit for it. So it's we.

But if you like plus three or lower for the Giants, I don't get why. Like you must really love Darren Waller or something. So it makes sense that it's three and a half, and it could maybe even go to four by the time everyone's done losing on Sunday. Well, the Giants have the better coach, and they have the better quarterback. And I think that's why there's bits of action on that front. What happened? I don't know.

I don't think. Try to think if Daniel Jones is better than Trey Lance. Let me try to add up. Who's had more playoff wins, Dak Prescott or Daniel Jones? Oh, look at you.

You're coming right at me. How many? Has he had more? Does he have one? Well, Daniel Jones had one last year. How many does Dak have in his career?

You have two or one? He's got a bunch. He's got seven or eight. A bunch? Seven, eight, somewhere. No, no. No, we don't have a bunch, but what? He's got a bunch. He's got a seven or eight. A bunch? Seven, eight, somewhere. No, we don't have a bunch, but what? Tampa Bay got to the second round that year. Yeah, no, it's close. It's close.

He's not better. You know he's not better. You're not drafting him. You're not drafting him. You take Daniel Jones on your team on fantasy or regular team. I don't want Dak either. Led the league in interceptions last year. I have a prediction for this game.

I think this line climbs, and I think it climbs, and I think it climbs. Especially if people chasing their money because they had the Vikings in Washington in a tease on Sunday and they have to win that back. And I think this line gets to like Cowboys

by five, five and a half. And I just think nobody's going to take the Giants. People are down on the Giants in general and I'm not. I think they are a solid football team who will be in the playoffs this year. And as you know, I hate the Giants like passionately. So you're saying wait for the line to get to five and a half and then jump on the Giants? Are you telling all these people who lost money all day Sunday?

Yeah, your salvation lies in New York and Daniel Jones and this defense that doesn't create sacks or anything against one of the best offenses in the league? I'm not saying that. I'm saying if you like the Giants, I would wait. I would wait because I think you're going to get a better price and a better money line price. And if that line goes to five and a half,

I could see myself talking myself into a Giants-Jets six-point tease and bringing the Giants up to like 11 or 11 and a half and bringing the Jets to like seven and a half, eight. That's our Monday night game. Let me ask you this. As a friend and bringing the Jets to 7 and a half, 8. That's our Monday night game. Let me ask you this. As a friend and everything else, who do you... We record right

after this game, right? Obviously. Cowboys-Giants. Do you want the Cowboys to lose this game for the sake of the podcast, for the sake of your bets and everything else? You do, don't you? No, because I... Yes, you do because I like the Cowboys over this year, and I think we both took it.

So I have the Giants over in the Cowboys. I don't know. I haven't decided yet. I want to see how many people jump on the Cowboys bandwagon this week because you know it's going to be plentiful. Monday night, Bill's Jets, our last one. What's the score right now? Guess the lines.

Who's winning I think I got you I didn't want to say 34, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 to 11 to 8 sorry pal I take group 1

tough one you know how this goes Monday night Bills at Jets Bills team as as I said on the AFC over under pod

I'm not a huge fan of this Bills team not also a said on the AFC over-under pod, I'm not a huge fan of this Bills team. Not also a huge fan of this Jets team. But if they lose this game, what a terrible start to the season after all the hype. I have the Bills favored, and I had it Bills by one and a half, which might be too low.

Yeah, it is low. I had two, and it's too low. It's actually two and a half but this number moved it was almost about it was like even on FanDome almost positive and moved and I don't know what for what reason it was like a couple days after Von Miller's injury was reported and yet it moved the other way I don't I don't understand why the line would move if anything we talked about the hard knocks tax that would be you be every reason to give it to the Jets, but no.

I'll tell you this. I like the Jets in this game, and one of the reasons is they're going to have weeks when they're going to have trouble blocking and whatever, but I just don't think the Bills are that defense. They're not that physical. I don't think they're going to make them pay that much for not having an awesome

offensive line, and the J jets are going to have time. And I can, I could just see the jets, this being a nice win for them. And then everybody overreacting to it. So, all right, you beat me week one.

Congratulations. That's it. Cue the subway footlong. You're going to get it. You're going to get it to the mid section. Very excited to take a break and we're going to rip through some futures. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express.

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with professionalism and compassion. We are your local Dignity Memorial provider. Find us at dignityemorial.ca. So FanDuel boosted our Chiefs, Niners, Eagles playoff bet to plus 130. Who are you the most afraid of out of those three? This bet's going to be available through Monday and I think most of Tuesday. If you had to pick one team to blow that parlay boost,

we hit the one last year. I hit the NBA one. We're on a little streak. Who are you the most afraid of? First of all, I like it. I think plus 130 is a great number. Everybody should kiss everyone at FanDuel's feet.

But Chiefs are good. That's a lock. 49ers. I mean a lock. 49ers. I mean, Chiefs 49ers is my Superbowl. So I don't have a problem with those two and the Eagles, but I don't know. And NFC,

I think they're under their win total, but they still make the playoffs. That's the one I would worry about, but I wouldn't worry. You don't have to worry for more than three weeks, probably before they continue their dominance. Right. Who do you worry about?

Yeah. I like having the Niners and the Eagles in there because neither of us love the NFC. And those are probably two of the only three teams we trust or come close to trusting. And then KC, Mahomes has to get hurt. Otherwise, they're making the playoffs. So there you go.

Okay, we're going to rip through some futures really quick. What's your MVP pick this year? What do you think for best bet, not pick? Did you say Hurts? I don't mind that for MVP if you're going to go value. Value, you look at week 15, week 16, what are the odds going to be for these

guys? Week 16, Hurts will be 3-1 or something like that. I still say Chiefs Super Bowl, Mahomes MVP, six to one odds. Just keep pounding that until these guys retire, until Mahomes is out of the league, right? It's going to pay off every three or four years. What do you get? IRAs, CDs? This is the, I call it the KCD. One to the multi-generational player. So keep pounding Mah homes at six to one and the chiefs. And there'll be plenty of hedge opportunity. Well,

isn't the best parallel, the tennis where, you know, like for years and years, it's like, just don't overthink Wimbledon. Just bet Djokovic. Just do it.

Right. Don't talk yourself into this guy or that guy. Cause guess what? He's probably going to win. And same thing with Mahomes. I'm with you. I love, as you know, Sal and I, we like to look at the futures based on the odds. Not just the pick, but just where we see the value.

And Hurts 12-1, for him to be lower than Allen and Burrow and Mahomes doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Because this is another bet I love. The Eagles have the most points this year is nine to one. And that offense, I just think they have the most weapons. They have the best offensive line. And I think they're going to have a couple 50 to 10, 47 to 14 type of blowout games. And I think they're going to have the most points. So I like Hurts 12 to one. I like Eagles nine to one. Did you have a most points pick or did you not figure that one out?

I did very, very biased pick, but my Cowboys at 10 to one for most points, most points last year was won by the Chiefs, right? They had 496. The Eagles at 477, the Cowboys 467 and five games, even though we won four of them were quarterbacked by Cooper Rush. So they're right in that mix at 10 to one. So I think there's nice value there. And Philly had the same thing where they didn't play.

They didn't really have the jets on him. The support quarters and it hurts missed a couple of games. I thought I'm just throwing this out. Offensive player of the year, Josh Allen was 30 to one. And I just thought that seemed out of whack because there's a world where that Bill's team maybe isn't that good. So he can't win MVP because they go 10 and seven or nine and eight,

but he has like this incredible offensive season. And people are like, whoa, man, if it wasn't for Josh Allen, they would have been six and 11. So 30 to one just seemed out of whack to me. Same for,

um, comeback player of the year, which I think everybody just assumes Hamlin's going to win. But, um, two, it was 20-1, and if Tua just plays, you know, 16, 17 games, doesn't get hurt, throws for 38 TDs,

and Miami's team is really good, and they're like a one seed or a two seed or a three seed, I think he would win it. So I was surprised 21 was that high. Yeah, it is. I can't get off the Hamlin pick though, because I think there's a special place in hell that people are going to go

if they don't vote for him. I know there's going to be a lot of time removed between the terrible hit and everything else between that and the end of the season, but I don't see anyone else getting it, but you do have to go by who gets votes, right? Yeah. So you're Josh Allen though. Your pick isn't bad because unlike MVP, where no running backs or receivers gets votes, right? Yeah. So your Josh Allen, though, your pick isn't bad

because unlike MVP, where no running backs or receivers get votes, it's all quarterbacks. Quarterbacks do get votes for offensive player of the year. You'll see it, right? You'll see Rodgers.

You've seen Mahomes did it in the past. So that's not a terrible pick. And speaking of guys who get votes, Nick Bosa, I would take him now at 12 to 1 because even if he sits out a week, I still think this is good. And if he guys who get votes, Nick Bosa, I would take him now at 12 to one, because

even if he sits out a week, I still think this is good. And if he announces he's playing, this will probably go lower for defensive player of the year. He had 237 votes over Micah Parsons who had 101. So you really have to look at who these guys, and it's the same guys voting every year. Nick Bosa, 12 to one, that's for the incumbent. He won it last year. They give it back-to-back for these guys. Watt won it back-to-back. Donald won it back-to-back a couple of years. So he has 34 sacks in two years. And I think he's going to play this week. And I think he's a really good value at 12-1 for that award. Yeah. It's not like the NBA MVP where somebody could just go on TV and start this whole narrative that completely changes the race in five seconds.

Right. I, I, I had Parsons plus four 50 written down for that one. I just think he's the best defensive player in the NFC at least. And, um, your team's going to be really good.

I don't know what's going to happen with Chris Jones. I don't know when Bosa is coming back, but Parsons still feels like he might have another half level to go up. And maybe this is the year where he's so good. Everybody's like, wow, are him and Mahomes the two best players in the league? Like, do we start talking about that? So plus 450, I like, uh, the coaches, there's two coach of the year odds that I love. Tom runs 18 to one on FanDuel and Vrabel is a 30 to one. And those are two teams that I like. Tomlin's 18-1 on FanDuel, and Vrabel is 30-1. And those are two teams that I like. And if Tennessee wins the

division and goes 10-7, 11-6, Vrabel's in there. And same for Tomlin, Pittsburgh. People love Tomlin. I think he's probably... It's him and Andy Reid. Who are the most hands-down beloved coaches? It's him and Andy Reid, I think, right?

Mike McCarthy. Yeah. Todd Bowles. like just hands down beloved coaches. It's him and Andy Reid, I think, right? Mike McCarthy. Highest approval rating. Stop it. Yeah. Todd Bowles. No, yeah, yeah. It's those two. It's those two. And if the Steelers are good,

I think there's going to be a lot of Mike Tomlin. Wow. Should we start talking about this guy as like one of the best coaches in a long, long time and stuff like that? So 18-1, I thought, was pretty tasty. Who'd you have for offensive rookie? Well, you know, I went B. John Robinson

under eight and a half touchdowns because I feel like there's, boy, there's a lot of assumptions built into that number. And by the way, he could have a lot of, he could have like 1,700 yards and not have nine, 10 touchdowns, right? Unless he's going to just rip off 60 yarders at a two game or something. So I went under there, but I'm going to be boring and pick him to win

that award anyway. I like Stroud at 10 to one. I like Stroud a lot more than a lot of people do, but I would take those two. I had this as a stay away category. I like Gibbs, but I didn't like the nine to one. I wish Gibbs was like 12 to one. It goes back to the Gibbs overvalued thing. Defensive rookie, I love Carter for plus 550. Like, the way people are talking about him,

it just seems like he's going to be immediately an impact guy for the Eagles. And, when you get the name Baby Rhino in August, I'm in. So, plus 550.

Couldn't really, you know, sometimes a cornerback can sneak in there for this, but that would be a pretty big leap for Gonzalez or Witherspoon. I'm pretty sure Fandle had Carter or Nolan Smith to win rookie of the year. They did. They do, right? I think it was 5-1.

I'd just rather have Carter. The least amount of points, I narrowed it down to Arizona 5-1 or Carolina 8-1. Would you have anyone else in that conversation? I had the Colts at 10-1. It could just be an abject disaster. The defenses aren't spectacular in that division, so that might be the problem, uh, with this one,

but, uh, I don't want to count them out of anything. Um, futility wise. So what, if you had to bet on one of those, what would you do?

I like the Carolina. I'd say to win. Okay. I'll go to Colts, but I like Rams worst record 10 to one. I feel like we're seeing it already with, uh, Cooper cup,

like I said, and they're going to be a shell of themselves. And, um, and then you're just like, oh, why am I just... I'm betting on the jersey here and the fact that they won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago,

but this is a garbage team. So it is very strange what's happened to that division where it's so top-heavy. The two bottom teams could win a combined seven games. Yeah, there's no value for Arizona. They're plus 250 for worst record. Carolina, 20-1, I thought was pretty interesting and Vegas 13-1 if you're looking for more

long shots one but I'm with you I think the Rams 10-1 if the cup thing starts out and then Stafford whatever happens it could be one of those where they just say screw it they got Caleb Williams in their backyard and maybe they just say they're smart enough and secure enough

and they're a coach. They won a Super Bowl a couple years ago. Maybe that's the team that goes, wait a second, what are we doing? I just find it hard to believe McVay would tank. By the way, there's some alt win totals. There's that I love doing on FanDuel and Raheem is a big fan of.

Raheem always talks about how there's some of the best value there, but Arizona under five and a half wins was minus 270. And unfortunately they don't let you to parlay a lot of those, but, but the, my, I'm just trying to think of a scenario where Arizona goes six and 11, and that might be the rare future where it's okay laying the juice.

Right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's not bad. I think we discussed that cause I'm not in love with the four and a half, but I don't think they're going to get to six, right? Six and 11 would be six.

They'd have to sweep the Rams and then they'd have to, I'm saying, I'm looking at their schedule. It doesn't, they don't have a lot of wins on that schedule. They'd have to sweep the Rams and upset somebody else and they'd have to be trying their hardest

all year. There's some exact bets that I liked. Arizona to go 3-14 plus 440. Pittsburgh to go exactly 11-6, 7-1.

Green Bay to go 10-7, exactly 7-1. Buffalo to go 9-8 is plus 700. And Carolina to go 4-13 was plus nine 50. So I enjoyed those.

What, uh, wait, any futures that you loved? Yeah. With that, the exact ones, I think focus on the North,

the AFC North, where a lot of those teams are locked into, all right, they're going to win eight or nine or Ravens are going to win nine or 10 or, you know, the Bengals are going to win 10 or 11, like lock in. I think that like plus five 550 for all of those numbers.

And then if you get lucky, you could hit on a couple of those. Hit on two of them. That's smart. Yeah. We talked about this on the AFC preview. Titans, Jags, Texans, Colts in that order. FanDuel has the exact orders for all these. 12 to 1, that pays.

I love that one. There's also another division one. I like Pittsburgh to win that pays. I love that one. There's also another division one that I like Pittsburgh to win that division. You don't, but Pittsburgh, Cincy, Cleveland, Baltimore, and that order was 25 to one. And then Packers, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago is another one I liked that was 16 to one. But we both liked the San Francisco, Seattle, Rams cards.

If you want to have the Rams ahead of the cards, that's plus 240, not great value, but I feel like you can hedge that with the Rams and the cards, right? If you just think it's going to be nine or Seahawks, and maybe just hope it's Rams third, but then if it gets a little shaky down the stretch, you could hedge it one way or the other way.

Do you have any other ones of those? I didn't have too many because I feel like we butted heads on some of these. But yeah, you're right. That NFC West one, that's really one of the few that you only have to decide who's going to come in third or fourth because first or second seems pretty set.

I'm looking at some of these others. What else did I have? They have, FanDuel does a great thing where they divide it by division. So you could have, I think this is a good one. I know that I'm not doing anyone any favors with the VIG at minus 165, but Derek Carr to have the most regular season passing yards in the NFC South. Right. I, we could see a change in quarterback for any of those other three positions at

the point, right? We, we, all right. Bryce Young, exciting. Is he going to, is his game going to lend itself to a big passing yardage season? Baker could be in and out of there. And then who am I missing? Desmond Ritter? I love Carr there at minus 165. I liked it too.

I hate the negative odds with the future prop. But I thought the same thing. That one jumped out at me. So my favorite one of those, I love those division by division leader things. Ramondre, my guy, is plus 170 to be the highest

AFC rushing guy this year. And last year he was at 1040 and he only started seven games because they had Harris there bring him in. And then he kind of took over the job as the game went along, as the season went along. I just think he's an awesome player.

He's really good. He's one of the best players on the team. And then you compare like Brees Hall and Dalvin Cook and the Jets, who the hell knows. Miami situation, that's already in flux. Maybe Mostert and then James Cook and Buffalo, but Buffalo always uses like a ton of different running backs. I couldn't believe he was plus 170.

I thought that was one of the best bets on the board. That's excellent considering every one of those other teams you mentioned was vying for Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor the last two weeks, right? Like, oh, how good would the Dolphins be with Jonathan Taylor? Like, oh, yeah, the Jets need Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, well, that's why one 70 for Stevenson's good. He needs to get more than he got like 14 carries a game is the only problem. And Belichick doesn't like anyone to shine in that running back slot. Right. Yeah. And they're going to have Zeke, but I just, he started to become a

third down guy for them a little bit as the season went along. I just think he's going to have the ball a lot. I also thought another one that jumped out at me and Ben and Sheil mentioned this on the Friday pod they did on Ringer NFL was the Garrett Wilson most receiving yards was 20 to one, which you figure like he had a really good year last year

with terrible quarterbacks. And now he's got it. Worst case scenario, a solid quarterback. He's clearly the number one guy. And is there a world, you know, where he has like 1700 yards receiving or something like that? I thought the 21 was high. Were you surprised by that?

Yeah, it should be. You're right. And I think there's a lot of good receivers on there that could potentially break this record. Fandle has this, sorry to move over of good receivers on there that could potentially break this record. Fandel has this. Sorry to move over yours, but any player breaks most receiving yards this year, the record, at plus 430, and that's Calvin Johnson has it at 1964. We saw Jefferson at 1,800.

I mean, really, you're a game away. Yeah, half a game away from doing this, so plus 430 is nice. The other receiver I liked was Diggs. I think this is all noise about how he and Josh Allen, they don't speak and everything. I see him having a big year. 12-1 for most touchdowns. He was third last year with 11.

He had 10 the year before. Most touchdowns, you can win it with 11 or 12 or 13, right? Most years. So 12-1, I thought, is good for Diggs. Yeah, there's one. Hurts' most rushing TDs was plus 750, which I liked

because, you know, around the goal line, they do that push play and all that stuff. Garrett Wilson last year, how many receiving yards do you think he had last year? He played every game,

17 games. If you had to guess, it was Zach Wilson, Mike White, and that scramble guy as his quarterbacks. Joe Flacco, I guess, was in there too.

8.85? No, what was it? More than that? He had 1,103 receiving yards last year as a rookie. Wow. Is Rodgers worth an extra 30 a game? See, one pass a game that he completes?

20-1, I think, was way too high. Here's another one that I liked. This is so stupid, but Geno Smith, most NFC West passing yards is plus 110. So Tim versus Purdy. There's people watching this Niners team who's like, it's going to be Darnold. Darnold's

going to end up being the guy. He's going to steal the job from Purdy. And in general, it's going to be Darnold. Darnold's going to end up being the guy. He's going to steal the job from Purdy. And in general, it's a pretty run-heavy team. And Gino aired it out last year, and he's got the best receivers in the NFC. So, plus 110, I was shocked that he wasn't...

I just wrote that down. That's a great one, considering the uncertainty of the quarterbacks in that division. That's excellent, plus money. The last one I had was Allen, 35 plus TDs passing, plus 144. And he's been at that number over the last three years. This will be four straight years, which is not a lot of people have done that. But 35, that's two a lot of people have done that. But 35,

that's two a game with a 17 game schedule. I was surprised that was plus. I like that. And I think he's going to run less. Let's save his body. The last last one I had was just the Giants to win more games than the Jets plus 205.

That's just a classic New York fans. We're better than you guys. You guys have been our little black sheep brother in the football scene forever. We're not afraid of you. Watch this.

We're going to go 10 and 7 and you're going to go 8 and 9 and we're going to be the ones that make the playoffs. I like those odds though. The plus 205, I thought. I thought that's a fun bet too just to kind of pick

between the two New York teams. You're probably looking good after the first six weeks. We saw that jet schedule, right? And there's a real chance it could be two and four. And then you'll be, you'll be looking nice there. The only other one I had,

boy, people really down on Derrick Henry and Titans in general. But after years and years, it'd be like, this guy's a unicorn. You can't compare them to anyone else. And now it's like, oh no,

he's shot. He's done. He's had too many carries. Like why? He's still the unicorn. His yards per carry, I think went up last year from 21. He had 1530 rushing last year. There's a prop on there. Will he have 1675 plus rushing yards? That's plus 870. 1675. He had 1530 last year. Why not? Yeah, the only case for that is if they play the rookie a lot more than people think, that would be the only reason that went down. Last but not least is the four division bets I like, just for the odds.

Pittsburgh plus 470, Tennessee plus 310, Green Bay plus 350, and New Orleans plus 130. I think two of those hit. Me personally, I just think two of them make it. So I don't know. What's your favorite division bet? Mine is the Browns plus 380, and I think it's going to be down to 3-1 after their week one win. So jump on that now. Don't think about the past.

Plus 380 is the winner. Do you like the Dallas to be the number one seed bet? I have San Francisco, but yeah, I probably should based on the fact that they won 12 games the last two years, right? So they should be in that range anyway. So what's the number on that? I don't even know if I looked at it. All of a sudden, I can't find it. It was a little higher. I think it was in the plus like 500 range because their over-under still isn't as good as I think either of us think it should be, right? Their over-under is still nine and a half, but it's minus 162. So heavy action on that. But,

um, I don't know. It's just, if, if the San Francisco QB situation gets weird, if Philly's defense really does take a step back, which people think, and maybe Dallas just hops in and Dak has this big comeback year and, you know,

everybody just gets all fired up. I'll tell you what we talked about it. They have FanDuel. If you look under the season specials for every team, for every team, they'll have to score at least one touchdown. Boy, that Cowboys offense, my favorite was the Niners at even odds. I don't even care who their quarterback is. Their defense is going to lead to great field position. They're going to score a touchdown a game and they did last year. Cowboys is plus 135 to score one or more touchdowns. And we know

if they have a capable backup, that's one thing you have to consider. Why wouldn't you take that at plus 135? Because Mike McCarthy's their coach. He's going to go for field goals. One of the Dallas ones that jumped out at me was Pollard to get 10 plus rushing touchdowns.

Do you have like a fourth and goal back or you don't really have that guy? It's going to be a lot of power this year. So unless he gets hurt, who's getting in the back? Exactly. Mr. Scrambler. Well, that's what they say. They might bring Trey Lanson for that push play.

Right. So don't be surprised if he I would put his over on the touchdowns at two and a half for them to push, shove him in for him to be the shovey for that Eagles play. But otherwise that's, I think you're getting two to one odds right on that for Pollard. I think that's pretty good. 10 or more touchdowns. Pretty good. And then last but not least.

So your Superbowl matchup is Kansas City versus who'd you have? 49ers. I'm taking the Super Bowl exacto there with the 49ers over the Chiefs at 42-1. You could do it the other way at 37-1. But, boy, if I have 42-1, I might actually hedge. I might actually do it if I got that far. So Chiefs, 49ers, just as a matchup is 21-1.

That's good. Don't you think you should have your final four and just do mix-and-match parlays with those four? 49ers and Chiefs should be in the conference championship games. I should be looking at 42-1 still in mid-January with those teams. And if you want to say Cincinnati or take another team, I think just do round-robin parlays with three or four teams there. Yeah.

I have since he Casey Philly and Sam Fran as my final four. And I think since he just somehow figures out a way to get there. All right. Well, I'm not rooting for your Eagles pick. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I can't,

I, you know, I can't get there with McCarthy. I just can't. I'm sorry. I just can't. Loaded Dallas. Oh, I'm with you I can't. You know I can't get there with McCarthy. I just can't. I'm sorry. I just can't. Loaded Dallas. Oh, I'm with you.

I just can't. McCarthy.com. All right. Cousin Sal, what's your schedule this week for us? Wow. So much. So much to plug. Against All Odds is back on the Ringer Podcast Network Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday's episode is going to focus on college. I have a million bets out there. Coach Prime under two and a half conference wins. is going to focus on college. I have a million bets out there. Coach Prime under two and a half conference wins. Probably going to lose right now. By the way, I know you got back in on college. Gus and Coach Prime games is basically crack injected straight into

the veins, right? That was the most fun I've had watching a college football game and I can't remember. It was just so random because it was like, I'm going to put this on. Maybe they could stay with TCU for a couple quarters. And it was like, oh my God, this team's like watching a pro team. The quarterback was incredible. The son was

incredible. He's got the kid that plays both ways Hunter. His Heisman odds went down from 400 to 1 to like 100 to 1. The Pac-12 screwed up. That's a whole other conversation, but it's very exciting. Well, also from a father-son standpoint, De'Anne is the best cornerback I've ever seen.

I mean, wouldn't you have him number one in the all-time cornerbacks you've ever watched in your life? I think he's first for me. And for him to have this QB, who's clearly going to be like a real NFL quarterback, I just wasn't expecting that. I was like, oh my God, this is way up there in the rankings.

That was really fun. I had a great time. What else do you have? And then Cousin Sal's winning weekend, Friday morning on Fandle. Go over all the big NFL games. I interviewed Billy Walters. We're going to show a piece of that.

And then Sunday, Ringer Wise guys, pregame show. It's me. It's John Jastrzemski. It's Joe House. It's Raheem Palmer. We'll have an extensive weather report. We're going to pick the game straight up, no spread.

And then Leslie Visser is going to do a coming-of-age interview with Matt Schaub. No! None of that! None of that! Jane Kennedy. Gambling, gambling, gambling. Point spreads, props, line movements, ball busting all the things you ever wanted

ringer wise guys Sunday so that's going to run from 11 to 12 on Sunday and then we're going to keep it going on the other platforms

it'd be funny if we just audibled and it was just interviews with quarterbacks and coaches and then just a lot of like you guys laughing at each other's jokes

and not mentioning gambling at all alright Sal as always great to see you. Good job on you. Good job on you, buddy. All right. That's it for this special two-part extravaganza.

Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti for producing. Don't forget, we're on FanDuel TV on Monday morning and Tuesday morning. If you want to watch us head-to-head against first take. I don't know. I like our chances. I'm going to be back on this podcast on Tuesday. More football stuff and maybe some other stuff as well. So stay tuned for that. Team USA,

their game is going to be Tuesday too. So who knows? Maybe we'll be reacting to that as well. Thanks again to FanDuel. Don't forget about that special boost we put up, which is available through Tuesday. Eagles, Chiefs, Niners all make the playoffs plus 130. We are on a hot streak with these future boosts. Hit the NFL last year, hit the NBA last year. So hopefully we'll hit this as well. I will see you on Tuesday. I don't have

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