The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 2: In-Season Tournament Kudos, GSW in Trouble, NFL MVP Weirdness, and Million-Dollar Thanksgiving Picks With Rob Mahoney, Steven Ruiz, and Danny Kelly

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

In Part 2 of a two-part podcast, The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Rob Mahoney to discuss the success of the inaugural NBA in-season tournament and check in on some aging NBA superstars, including LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry (1:42). Then, Bill talks with Danny Kelly and Steven Ruiz about the lackluster NFL MVP race (50:58) before Bill and Danny run through NFL Week 12 games and make the Million-Dollar Picks (1:21:23). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Rob Mahoney, Steven Ruiz, and Danny Kelly Producer: Kyle Crichton The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming, please checkout theringer.com/RG to find out more or listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Coming up, part two of our special two-part holiday extravaganza on the BS Pod. Football, basketball, oh yeah, next. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. Football is in full action. FanDuel's highest rated sports book is the best place to bet it all. We've been doing pretty well on million dollar picks this year. I love the first month of the season because you have to go into the season thinking, I think Pittsburgh's going to be good. I think the Chargers are going to be good. I think Seattle's

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Visit fanduel.com slash BS to download America's number one sportsbook. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite.

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Your game time tastes like Miller time. Must be legal drinking age. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. Put up a new Rewatchables on Monday night. We did Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Also put up a part one of this podcast a little bit earlier today on Tuesday. We had Kevin O'Connor on to talk about

Jalen Brown and the Celtics. We had Derek Thompson on to talk about the OpenAI saga. There's no other way to put it and how crazy that's been and what it means for not only the future of open AI, but the future in general. And then last but not least, Austin Gale came on, did a little NFL nerd out with us. So that was part one. Part two,

taping this first part late on Tuesday night because Rob Mahoney and I are going to react to the in-season tournament and everything that happened today and try to figure out, are the old superstars that we have in a little bit of trouble here, or are we feeling good about them? And after that, Stephen Ruiz and Danny Kelly came on to talk about the NFL MVP, which is one of the worst races we've ever had. Why can't a non-QB win? We're going to break it down. And then Danny and I did million dollar picks. We're not scared that it's Tuesday and there's games Thursday, Friday, and Sunday and God only knows what could happen.

We made the picks anyway. We're feeling confident. We were 4-0 last week. Fun part two coming up. First, our friendsoney is here. We're taping this part of the podcast. It is 9 o'clock Pacific time. The Lakers did us a solid, Rob.

They blew out the Jazz. We're going to wait until the end of that. I'm going to start here. We wanted to react off tonight's games and I'm glad we did. I officially like

the in-season tournament. I think I'm in. I don't know whether this is, you know, they just poured Kool-Aid down my throat or I'm just following the herd or they're playing

a Jedi mind trick on me. But tonight was the night where I actually was legitimately invested in who won the Indiana-Atlanta game, which also happened to be an incredible game. And I actually looked at the schedule before we popped on and was like, oh, Boston-Orlando Friday in the in-season.

That's a big one. And we've hit this point now where the players care, so I care. That's where I've landed. And the best part isn't even here yet, right? The single elimination actual tournament part of the tournament hasn't even arrived. So there's a lot of inertia in sports in general, a lot of stodgy old men in dusty rooms complaining about things not changing because of the way they've always been.

So I am pro experimentation. Trying new things is cool. LeBron caring about these games is cool. Michael Imperioli is cool. I'm down for every element we've gotten of this so far. And again, the best is yet to come in terms of what these games are going to actually look like when elimination is on the line. You know what I realized, especially watching the games today? these guys have been competing their whole lives. And even though this is a pretty dubious prize, it's basically like, hey, everybody wins $500,000.

You're going to hold this cup that will probably be called like the Amazon Cup next year, whatever it is. It's still winning something. These guys are all still competitive. They're on a plane every night. They're playing cards. They're playing video games. They've been competing their whole lives.

And this is just another thing. I didn't think it fell into place in my head until I heard Halliburton talking about it. And he was just like, I've never won anything. He had this whole monologue about it. He's like, I care about this. I want to make the tournament. Totally. I want to make Vegas. I want to try to win this thing. I've never won anything before. And I was like, oh, okay. So when you're just talking about a year one of something, and there's been a lot of bad year ones of TV shows, technological products, you name it. This is a pretty good start. The courts made it feel different. We all made fun of them, but you are aware of, oh, this is actually an in-season. So from that piece, it worked.

The way they matched up all the teams seems to have worked for the most part. It's not really totally divisions, but it feels like people are in the same vicinity. And then I actually kind of understand the brackets. Like I was looking at them on ESPN, Orlando today, they're trying to win their game. And it's like, oh, maybe they should win by more points

in case they don't end up winning their bracket. They want to get one of the two wildcard spots. So they've checked a win their game. And it's like, oh, maybe they should win by more points in case they don't end up winning their bracket. They want to get one of the two wildcard spots. So they've checked a lot of boxes. What's missing for you so far about, like going into year two, what do you wish was in here that we don't have yet? It's a great question. Honestly, it's working for me for the most part.

I think some of the courts can be tamed down a smidge. Some of the reds are quite red, quite intense. And if we get a little closer to what we saw in Atlanta's court tonight, for example, I think that's the best court to sign this beautiful baby blue number. It works really well for having actual basketball players on the court playing on it. The more we can get in that range, I think the better off we'll be. But I like the distinctive look. I like the fact that guys are caring about this.

And right now they're caring about it on more of a cerebral level. It's LeBron saying, I want to win $500,000 for my teammates. It's Damian Lillard saying, I want to win this for the guys who are not making as much as I am. But you're right. Once you get into the third quarter of some

of these elimination games and your team is down 12, where normally in the regular season, you might just kind of coast it out and see what happens. Maybe you take your stars out if it gets away from you. Now, I think a lot of these teams are going to be cranking it up and you're getting to that point in those competitive games where it's not just about, as you're saying,

these guys want to win. They really don't want to lose. They really don't want to lose. And the fact that I think we have the currency of attention on the tournament right now, right? There is a lot of push media-wise, advertising-wise to make this a thing.

And the more the league succeeds in getting people to care about this on the outside, the more it's going to feel like a real lost opportunity for the guys in the teams who get eliminated. Yeah, and I thought Doc Rivers,

that was when I started to get sucked in when he was talking about it in my podcast last week and explaining from a coach's perspective why he liked it and how it's just added stakes that now you can test your team in certain ways and cut your rotation and do things to kind of prepare yourself

for what it's going to look like in April. So that part's fun. I think when we get to Vegas, you think like this was a league that just stopped battering in December for the most part, unless somebody scored 60 points or, you know, there was a really awesome Friday ESPN game or something for the most part.

There was talk two years ago, like, should we just start the season on Christmas? And should we just remember years ago, like, should we just start the season on Christmas? And should we just, remember, like everybody was like, why doesn't the NBA matter more the first eight weeks? Like, why does it feel like the season starts on Christmas? I think the league was terrified.

You look at some of the stuff that they've done the last couple of years where even moving the TNT games to Tuesday nights just to avoid the NFL completely. It was a league that was a little bit on the ropes here this first part of the season. And now the Vegas thing will be something. Everyone's going to care.

I feel like all the NBA people will be there. And I feel like we're like, we sound like we're drinking the Kool-Aid, but I was fully prepared to be shitting on this and like, oh, this didn't work. What should the stakes be? I think if I had to add one thing, I think it would be cool if the team that won was guaranteed a playoff spot. Yeah. So, and whether that's the six seed.

So let's say Indiana actually wins this whole thing and you're just guaranteed no lower than the six seed. That's something. Now you're really playing for something. Maybe that means less to the Celtics because the Celtics know they're going to be good. But I think for some of the other teams like in Orlando, like in Indiana, that's a real thing. You're going full tilt now for that. If they guaranteed the eight seed, that's not bad either. And maybe you say the plan is for seven seed only in one of the conferences. There's ways to rig that. But I do wish they added

that stake. Are you for or against that? I'm for maybe a modified version of that. I think what I'd like to see is maybe you get a bump up from wherever you end up. So if you're in the bottom four of the standings, you're automatically in the play-in. If you end up in the play-in, you're automatically guaranteed a top eight.

Oh, that's good. Yeah, yeah. If you're a top 16, maybe you're guaranteed home court advantage for a certain number of rounds or a certain number of opponents. That way, we're not getting the Portland Trailblazers, with all due respect, in a first round series just getting absolutely wrecked by the Nuggets or something. Right. Everything is still above board and competitive, but it's a real reward for these teams who are vying for it. Rob, I don't think we have to worry about the Portland Trailblazers in any sort of scenario this season that doesn't involve deep, deep, deep embedded lottery. Can we talk about the game of the year? Please. We officially had a game of the year with the Indiana Atlanta game was a cross between like a late eighties, early nineties,

all-star game with just some shot making where I don't think anybody missed for 15 minutes. Everything was going in. Both teams shot 60%. And it wasn't an easy 60%. These were 28 footers. These were threes with a hand in your face. These were double clutch layups in traffic. I had that on the small TV initially on one of the two small TVs and then the big TV I had Philly Cleveland. Immediate switch at halftime. It takes over. I was like,

we got to see if this can be 300 points combined. This was, I looked this up during the game only the night time. One team has had 157 plus and the other team has had 150 plus in the history of the league.

And I would have, these would have been two of the suspects, I think, for a game like that. I think so, yeah. Indiana-Dallas might honestly get to like 170 to 165, but what struck you watching the game today?

I think the Pacers, to kind of bring our conversation full circle, are just the perfect tournament team, right? They are explosive offensively. They're relentless in a way that's really dangerous. You know, Atlanta is technically a better defensive team than the Pacers are.

I don't think anyone can argue that based on the numbers of what Indiana has allowed this season. But the Pacers put so much pressure on you with how consistently they score. Every game, they're going to have at least one maybe multiple 40-point quarters. And if you can't keep up with that,

if you get a little sloppy with the ball, if your threes stop falling, they're just going to run you over. And the fact that a team like that is going to go now guaranteed, clinched a spot into the in-season tournament. Congratulations to the Indiana Pacers. Yeah, you did it.

A team like that is going to be in there with one of the most exciting and charismatic young stars in the league in Tyrese Halliburton. This is exactly what the tournament should be about. Introducing the basketball world at large to a team like this, to a player like this.

It's the March Madness concept, right? It's like the wacky, the Loyola Marymount in 1991. Like, oh my god, look at this team. They just scored 150 points the other day. And if you're only playing them once, it's way harder than if you're playing them seven times over the course of two weeks.

I was thinking watching the game, they took 94 shots, they took 45 threes, and they took 28 free throws, which is just in a non-overtime game is just kind of dumbfounding to also shoot 60%. Their splits were 60.6, 48.9, 75.

I was thinking 20 years ago at this time was the 0-3-0-4 season. Yeah. Which was one of the darkest seasons in the history of the league. Some real medieval shit going on in the league at that point. Yeah, this was just rock fight after rock fight.

Feel free to go look up some of the box scores from that era. And it was so bad that they actually had like a crisis that summer. And they're like, how do we fix this? We had like the Pistons won the title. God bless the Pistons. But they just, they did it old school defense, super physical. Every game was 82 to 80, 87 to 80.

And the league was like, we got to fix this. So they made a couple of changes. That gave birth to the Steve Nash Suns and then some more fun things that came down the road. But 20 years later, if you took this Pacers team and just dropped that into that season from a time machine,

I think people would think the aliens had landed. What's happening? No ability to fathom an offense like this. Bless both of these teams because down the stretch, they both just dispensed with the idea of trying to guard each other. They took their centers out. Jalen Johnson, Obi Toppin,

you're our fives now and we're just going to cook and cook and cook and space things out. Man, it was incredible to watch. It felt very maybe this is Thanksgiving on the brain of me, but it felt very Thanksgiving starches. Your mashed very, maybe this is Thanksgiving on the brain of me, but it felt very Thanksgiving starches. Your mashed potatoes, your mac and cheese, your cornbread dressing.

I'm not going to pretend anything that happened in this game was good for me to watch, but if I'm being honest, it's all I want at all times is to consume games like this just straight into my veins. Halliburton finished with 37-16. He's headed toward... First of all, I think he's already

locked the assist title up. I bet on Jokic on that, but I think that one's a wrap. Trey's within range, at least. Trey's in range, you're right. It's going to be a fight, but Halliburton, and in particular, the number of games he has like this

with 16 or so assists and also one or zero turnovers. Absolutely nutty. And it's another reason why Indiana is so dangerous. They play so fast and they basically never turn the ball over. Well, it feels like he has a feel for his team now that we're 13-14 in. So I feel like

the 37-16 is something we might see again and again. I mean, a brutal night for Warriors fans. That Wiseman pick and just in general and all the different ways that goes where Minnesota actually does the right thing and takes the right guy, Edwards. And then just thinking of Halliburton

on that Warriors team compared to, you know, they basically turned it into reacquiring Gary Payton is what they turned the second pick into. Especially living out here in the Bay Area, it really is just a carousel of angst. Whether Edwards or LaMelo or Halliburton has a great game,

there is always some grousing going on about one of those three guys. And it's just going to be that way perpetually. I mean, you're going to have to watch all three of those players grow up and into even greater stardom and success knowing that you could add any of them. Stretching out what we now see to be

a team that is very Steph-reliant. As Steph-reliant as it's ever been in Golden State. Yeah. Well, one of the things that's interesting about Indiana, who by the way, are they 8-5? Yeah, 8-5. So they had the 8th pick in the draft and he doesn't play.

And I don't even know if it was a good pick or not, but they kind of just don't need him. But when you think of, like, they signed Bruce Brown, they do this sneaky top-end trade that I think everybody I think everybody was kind of in on top and just going to a new situation. He showed enough flashes on the Knicks

that it's like, this guy is something. He plays the exact same position as Julius Randle, and you can't play them together. Those are the type of guys you want to trade for. But just adding those two, and then they don't trade Buddy Hield. And it's like he wants to go, oh,

Buddy Hield wants to go. Well, now he stays. He was 9 for 11, hit all six of his threes today. Yeah, huge in crunch time for them, too. This team is just, I like the way it's constructed. I actually am wondering, could they be like a buyer at the trade deadline? They have a lot of assets.

Walker is somebody who I think a lot of people like coming out of college. Maybe he just doesn't fit for the style they're trying to play. But we're about to hit trade deadline time. And I just wonder, is this a team that's like, no, we're good. We just want to be young and frisky. Or is this a team like, holy shit, we have a chance to add Zach Levine to this. And maybe we should just go grab them at a discount.

I was actually just out there for a story on Tyrese Halliburton talking with a bunch of their, their staff and their coaching staff and people there. I get the sense that they are definitely in the market for some big moves. I don't know if Zach Levine is quite to their needs if not necessarily their taste. Yeah, I was just thinking of some veteran that's available. Right. For sure. Jairus Walker, he does fit their style. He's just so raw. He's just

not ready for games like this one. For example, he would be making mistakes all over the place for as athletic and explosive as he could potentially be. He's just not ready. But this was an interesting game in the push toward maybe being more of a buyer in this market because kind of quietly, the Pacers changed

up their starting lineup in a way that reflects a bit more of an urgency and a win-now sensibility. Ben Mathurin had been starting for them, and they quietly went back to basically what they had been doing last season, which is Buddy Heald in the starting lineup, Aaron Neesmith in the starting lineup, something

a little more familiar, something that they have proof of concept for that worked for them last year. When they're doing things like that, rather than valuing the reps of Mather and Halliburton on the floor together as a starting pair, that says to me that they're really trying to win these games. They're really trying to push

now to be as competitive as they can. And there are limits to that, of course, with a team this games. They're really trying to push now to be as competitive as they can. And there are limits to that, of course, with a team this young. They're not going to do anything too crazy. But there is a want in Tyrese's case, as you pointed out. That guy just wants desperately to win. He's never played for a winning NBA team. He wants to do that. He wants to check that box

and get to the playoffs. And this whole franchise does, frankly. It's very similar to the OKC situation, where if you have a really special guard and you have some nice pieces around him, and the league's pretty wide open once you get past Boston and Denver and Giannis and Embiid, basically, and then whatever the Lakers are going to be at the table.

That's a lot to get around, in fairness. It's a fairly wide-open league to at least say, hey, could we make round two? Yes. And I think they could. You know, like you even look at the East, like they're, Orlando is the five seed and Indiana is the six seed right now. And it's not surprising.

Orlando has played the best defense in the league, at least by all the advanced metrics for the first 14 games. I don't know if it's sustainable, but when you watch them, they're long everywhere. They're really active. They're just kind of funky to play. And over a seven game series, you'd figure it out. But when they're just showing up and every guard is either going 120 miles an hour, like Cole Anthony or six, eight with long arms, like the rest of the guys, like

they're just a weird team and they can score at the end of games. I mean, the funny thing about them is they've almost blown some of the worst wins of the year. So there's been some crunch time stuff. It's a great time to be a weird team, though. I think you're absolutely right. If you are one of these weird teams that either has a distinct style that maybe has some warts to it, or maybe your players are a little younger than you might expect out of a real playoff contender, this is the kind of season where maybe you do push forward a little bit

more. And man, Orlando-Indiana would be such a fascinating stylistic contrast. And we saw the magic just absolutely destroy the Pacers in a regular season matchup earlier this week. So I would love to see that kind of situation again. But really, I'd

love to see any team grapple with the Pacers for seven games and see how they try to deny Tyrese, how they try to take them out of situation again. But really, I'd love to see any team grapple with the Pacers for seven games and see how they try to deny Tyrese, how they try to take them out of their pace. Because right now, Indiana's offense, even in the half court, is still really effective.

Orlando killed Toronto tonight. And that was a game I thought was going to be really fun. And that game was over within an hour. One thing I remember saying last year that, and I remember Russell and I talked about

on one of our Sunday pods, like just getting concerned about every team playing the same way, every team looking the same stylistically, just like, all right, and then he's going to slash out and somebody's going to take a three. And just, that's why we loved Jokic so much.

It was like, all right, at least we have this guy. He's different. But for the most part, all the styles seem to be the same. This year, I feel like the teams are, it's like professional wrestling. Everybody's got like a gimmick.

The Magic are like, we're fucking weird and long and young and, you know, there's just nobody like them. Indiana's like, we're going to shoot 90, we're going to take 90

to 95 shots a game. And Dallas is like, we don't care about interior defense at all, but we have Luka and Kyrie and that's what we're what we do. And you go on down the line and there's, the teams actually feel different to me. Even Milwaukee is kind of weird this year. It's like, they can't guard any perimeter guys anymore, but the honest damn thing's great. And they keep stealing these close games. Miami is like the typical weird Miami team, but you go on down the line, everybody's

got a gimmick. The Knicks are weird. Like just Brunson and Randall and a bunch of shooters. I don't even really know how to describe them. So I think from a eclecticness category, we're way better than we were last year. Don't you think? Yeah, I think the diversity of thought

and approach around the NBA, we're definitely seeing some fork in the road stuff with that. And a lot of it comes down to what prospects can you realistically get? And how does that inform the totally different trajectory your franchise can take? Having Paolo Bancaro puts you on a certain path. And once you get him and Franz Wagner, then it's like, okay, now we have an identity. Now we have something to work with. And is it kind of similar to what is going on in OKC, for example? Maybe in the sense

that those are both big wings, but Orlando's big wings are like 6'10 versus 6'8. And those two inches make an absolute world of difference. And so even the styles that are kind of technically similar by shot profile or by philosophy on the court feel totally different. The matchups feel completely different. So I'm with you. It puts the league in a really interesting place even in just a like, how do we advance out of the first round capacity? A first round matchup against Sacramento is just totally different than one against

the Lakers. And how you reckon with those challenges and those teams, you may be incredibly well suited for one and just horrifically outmatched in the other. And it seems like teams have more small ball options now than they used to. With guys at the 5 who seem more like Obi Thompson

and Jalen Johnson on the Hawks who's been kind of a revelation this year. He's only 21 years old, I think. But I think if you're doing trade assets on Atlanta, he'd be a little higher on the list than I think people would expect. But there's a lot of these teams seem to have one guy like that

who's like, oh, this isn't somebody I would have ever thought would be a small ball five, but unless you're playing Jokic or Embiid or one of the giant centers, you can kind of get away with this, which is what we saw in that Atlanta game. It's the people, it's the Clint Capella types who seem

like they're in more danger than ever now. Those guys are in no man's land because they're not quite gigantic enough to stop the Jokic and B types, but they're also not awesome enough offensively to take advantage of like, Oh really? You're going to play Palo at the five and they can't destroy that either. So there are no man's land. And then there's Porzingis who's in a category onto himself.

Chet feels like where the, that feels like the prototype of whatever is going to happen. Where it's like, all right,

this guy's kind of, seems like a center. He can protect the rim, but now he has guard skills at the top and he matches up against basically everybody except Jokic.

Anyway, I'm rambling, but I like that the variety we have now in that spot. I agree that Chet is a really interesting figure in this conversation and kind of unlocking the future of what the center

is going to be because we're seeing if you do play small against the Thunder, I mean, look what he did to the Warriors, right? They just had no one who could match his length, who could really contest his shot, who could really get into his in-between game because he has little turnarounds and little floaters.

He's got great touch. And when you have a player like that who's also as long as he is, he's in such a different conversation from Victor Webinyama, but he presents a lot of similar challenges in terms of what he does to you matchup-wise. Let's take a quick break

and then I want to talk about three old guys. This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. You know me, I can't go a day without sports. I really can't. And now Monday nights are all about hockey. That's right. There's a new exclusive home for streaming Monday night NHL hockey. And it's on Prime. All season long, Watch prime Monday night

hockey deliver unreal plays. The biggest goals can't miss moments. Matthews, McDavid, Crosby, the NHL's best. They're all on prime prime Monday night hockey. It's on Monday. It's on prime. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl,

but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you can still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. All right. So we have three geezers who are in the MVP conversation, Rob. Just three old guys. Three old guys like me. Yeah, three old guys. I think like me,

LeBron, KD, Curry, like we're just the old guard trying to hold on. So are we just reckoning with our own mortality on this podcast now? Is that what's happening? Yeah, I look at LeBron, I'm like year 21 for him, year 17 for my podcast. There's a lot of parallels. I can see what he's going through. We both

spend a lot on our bodies. Billions of dollars a year trying to... Finally choose machines. Trying to stay at the top. The MVP odds on FanDuel where Jokic is the prohibitive favorite now, two to one, and he should be because he is a one-man wrecking machine

and the greatest offensive player I think I've ever seen. But we have three old guys in the mix. We have Duran at 23 to one and probably dropping, who is brilliant again tonight, who is now, I mean, it's only 14 games,

but nobody has ever averaged 30 points a game and shot 50% from three before. I don't think he's going to end up doing that, but that's what he's doing now. You have Curry. Who's also 23 to one who put the word, who's basically holding the words together with scotch tape and thumbtacks. And then you have LeBron who is all the way down right now at 75-1,

but has been more effective than I was expecting. And you saw it last night. He's kind of destroying the bad teams at the very least. And he'll have the occasional pull-up 19-footer that barely hits the rim and looks awful. But him going to the rim is still pretty unstoppable. It feels like he was the smartest guy in the league for the last five, six years. It just feels like he's gaining intelligence.

I don't know how. I'm not taking them out of my top five to win the title just with their size and with him. I'm just not removing them. Let's start there. What do you see from the Lakers? Because it was a little choppy early, but what are we seeing now? I think it's still

choppy sometimes, in particular when LeBron's off the court. But that kind of speaks to this season as a greater affirmation of what LeBron can still accomplish at 38. What kind of power he still has, because I agree with you. The way he processes the game, the way he controls matchups, none of that stuff has fallen off at all. And I know we are all running to praise the young players who are coming up, these emerging stars and the way that they... This guy

is one of the best passers in the league. This guy is one of the brightest players in the league. LeBron is still here. Attention, everyone. And Jokic. Those two guys are operating on another plane than the rest of the league. Completely. And look, I know the NBA discourse

more broadly reduces everything, like reduces every team really to its stars. And I wish the Lakers were more complicated than that, but they're not. And that's kind of their problem is that they really still are so dependent on what LeBron can make happen. And this game against the Jazz was an exception to the rule and dare to dream everybody because we just watched the Lakers without LeBron actually carry those minutes for basically the first time all season.

But those are always going to be a worry to me. when LeBron is off the court, are embarrassing. For a team that made so many moves at the deadline and in the offseason, did so much to ostensibly improve this roster, that we're still having this conversation. Again, kudos to LeBron for being as good when he's on the floor, but I have no idea what to make of the Lakers when he's off it.

And he kept his streak alive because I think this is the eighth straight season we didn't even get to Thanksgiving and there were trade rumors involving Lakers people and things that they might do. Trades they can't even make yet because none of the signings are official until December 15th.

But it's just so weird to me. Why would that stuff come out at this point? Why would you want it to come out if you're the Lakers? Like, oh, Zach Levine, interested in him. Like, I just wouldn't say anything to anybody at this point. You're trying to build like cohesion. You're trying to build teamwork and chemistry. And this is a team that over and over again

has just bailed on people left and right. So if I'm Russell, if I'm Hachimura, if who, oh, Gabe Vincent, all these dudes who like don't have solid footing yet, I'd be like, wait, am I getting traded? I just got here. I don't know why that soap opera always has to happen around these LeBron teams. I don't know whether footing yet. I'd be like, wait, am I getting traded? I just got here. I don't know why that soap opera always has to happen around these LeBron teams.

I don't know whether they're just hyper-covered or whether he's just on huge teams that have leaks everywhere, but it's not awesome. I don't think it's a great way to do team building. With that said, I do think they're going to take a big trade. I think they're going to go package three guys

and get one bigger guy, whether it's, whether they wait for Dallas to go south and it's Kyrie, whether they say, fuck it, Zach Levine, whether they're like, oh, DeRozan, let's bring him home. It does feel like they're already greasing the skids for we are going to make one big deal here. And they should.

Right? Like, Cam Reddish left his game against the Jazz with a groin injury, so he wasn't really a factor in it, but he's been playing really well. And that's obviously a good thing for the Lakers, but it's a huge red flag that Cam Reddish playing well is a big factor for this team. It really matters. And you could say the same

thing for the nights where D'Lo hit shots or the games where AD has a big scoring impact. Austin Reeves started the season a little bit slow, and it was a crisis level storyline. So yeah, you should be having the Zach Levine conversation. It's just, it's a combination of LeBron's teams have always been quite mercenary. I feel like in terms of cobbling together the roster around him and the Lakers, as we all know, are a notoriously mercenary

organization for everyone who's not named Kobe Bryant. Yeah. So when those two things have collided, all options are on the table. Every player is potentially up and available to be moved at any time if it benefits kind of the larger mission here, which, to be fair, is the mission of improving the roster and one of the greatest players of all time. I can't even begrudge them that. Me neither, which is what makes the Warriors conversation we're about to have so interesting because this is a team that's just been loath to make big deals and clearly needs to make a big deal.

I mean, I don't want to pile on Klay Thompson, but he's just at a different point of his career, it seems like. Whether he can rally back, we'll see. We've thought guys looked old or had hit a different point in their career before, and sometimes they rallied. It even happened to him in the 22 finals to some degree, but he had two major leg injuries, you know? And I just think he's not clay anymore. He's a version of clay, but it's, it's, he's in a dangerous spot where he's still carrying himself. Like he's 2016 clay.

He's still going to the nightclub in the outfit that he wore eight years ago when he could fit into it and he can't fit into the outfit anymore. The buttons are popping a little bit. Yeah. It's getting a little tight. Yeah. It's like, whoa, man, you want to get that taken out? And he's a free agent at the end of the year.

I also don't think they would have the balls to trade him. But if you were just telling me in a vacuum, Kaminga, who still doesn't totally make sense with the team that they have when it's like this high hoops, IQ movement, whatever. And it's just like, let's also have this raw guy who's still trying to figure out who he is as a basketball player. We're just going to throw him into the middle of this.

They're too small, just point blank. They're too small for the way talked about this last week on the pod. They're just, they get, they're not only getting overpowered by Yoko, who just completely owns them at this point or any big center, but even the Chet Holmgren types can just eviscerate them.

They just seem small and too much is on Curry. And it too much depends on, can Andrew Wiggins have an awesome game? I thought they were going to be better, Rob. I thought this was going to be like a high 40s win team. And now I wonder, is this a play-in team? This might just be the destiny. It might be.

And you're right to identify Clay and Wiggins as kind of the two pieces here that are huge question marks on really a nightly basis. They've shown a little bit more lately, but I think expecting a few games of Clay shooting well to be a legitimate turning point, given the injury history you talked about, the difficulty he has creating separation.

I'm just not really expecting that. And you can hope that Andrew Wiggins, he was a little closer to like the guy he was against Oklahoma City versus the guy he's been against every other team on the schedule this year. I don't think there's a lot of evidence to suggest he is since their championship run.

And so I'm looking at this team and it's bigger than a basketball issue because they have easily the best and most successful bench of any of these kind of old guy teams that we're talking about here. Relative to the Lakers, the Warriors bench with Chris Paul is highly functional. The problem is their starting lineup, the thing they've depended on on every run they've been on, has been a total train wreck because Klay and Wiggins aren't holding up their end of the offensive bargain. So much is falling on Steph's shoulders. And when that's happening, that's existential. That's the Warriors confronting the one thing they've always been and they can't deliver on that front right now. That's a huge problem. And the 22 finals where Wiggins was like 10 rebounds a game and gave them size and length in a way that if he doesn't do that, they don't win the series. As great as Steph was, Wiggins was the other piece. He was the second best part in the team. He's just not the same guy. I mean, this year, he's 12 points a game. He's four rebounds a game.

25% from three. Like he's a shell of where he was in the finals. So you take that and then you take the clay piece of it too. And they're in a lot of trouble. They've been really hesitant to make big trades. I personally don't think they'll have the balls to trade clay.

That would be one of the most dramatic trades in recent NBA history for what the reaction would be. And yet, over and over again, teams have done trades like that when they've hit these fork in the road points. They're at a fork in the road in the career right now because he's 35. I don't know how many of these seasons he has left.

And if LeBron was in the same situation, what the fuck do you think would happen? Everybody in the team would be available. And that's been, in some ways, the best way to criticize LeBron was in the same situation. What the fuck do you think would happen? Yeah. Everybody on the team would be available. And, you know, that's been, in some ways, the best way to criticize LeBron. And another way that's been his superpower. He'll do whatever it takes to make his team better. And he has no loyalty to anybody.

And I think the Warriors have probably been too loyal to some of these guys. And Draymond too. They gave Draymond that big contract. And I just don't know if he can behave himself for long periods of time anymore. The Gobert thing was insane. That was honestly like five games

was fair, but the behavior was just irrational. That was one of the weirdest things I've seen in a basketball game and he's I think been a little bit unhinged here for a couple years. I don't know how much

you can count on him either. He was working some stuff out in that headlock, clearly. But the Clay conversation is always so interesting because you're right. A LeBron team, a team built around another star

might behave totally differently. But Clay has been so instrumental to everything that they've built and really their whole ethos as an organization being centered around Clay and Steph and Draymond, it makes it a totally different conversation. I would love to pretend we can have a cold, removed basketball conversation about what

behooves the Warriors, but it's not a cold, removed basketball conversation. The sentimentality of who Clay Thompson is to the Warriors, I think, matters as much as anything. And it's another reason why I'm kind of in agreement. I just, I don't believe they will trade him, basically ever, unless it goes absolutely in the tank where he is on the brink of retirement and technically a contract you could move,

but he's never going to play basketball again. I just don't think they're ever going to opt in to putting him in another uniform based on the importance he's had to that franchise. I just don't believe it. Yeah, because the case against it would be, okay, we traded Clay and Kaminga and a future top four protected first

for Zach Levine. Did that change our destiny? Is that helping us not get our ass kicked by Jokic? I mean, what they really need is to get a big guy with some size who can fill in some of the blanks with them. And those guys don't exist. Like a James Wiseman type.

Like a good James Wiseman. Yeah. Could you go get, I don't know, one of the Detroit 70 big men? Could you try to get Isaiah Stewart? Could you try to steal somebody like that? I still don't know if it totally changes your destiny. Even you watch them play a team like Houston and Houston just seems like, Shangoon just seems like he has too much size for them. And Draymond, who made a lot more sense in the mid 2010s, the way basketball is played now with the size and skill of these big guys, he just doesn't have the same impact anymore. He's not going to be able to stop Nicole Leokic. Like, sorry, nobody is. It's not going to be able to stop Nicole Leokic. Like, sorry, nobody is.

It's not happening. So I don't know. You might be right. You're closer to the Warriors situation than I am. It might be one of those things where they just say, you know what? These are our three guys. And if we have to go down in flames with them, so be it. The Celtics were in a similar situation in the early 90s with Bird and McHale and Parrish.

And they just basically resisted all or just trade them. They tried to build with young people around them. They got Reggie Lewis, Brian Shaw, Dee Brown. They made some runs, but the older guys ironically couldn't hold up. But I think that was really informative for Danny. I think that's why Danny was so cut throat as a GM because he was there and he was like, we should trade to McHale. And in this case, you're not even going to get that much for Clay. He's more of a salary cap figure at this point. But when you hear somebody like Draymond say, we're going to have a statue of the three of us outside the arena, I think that's how they feel. But if that's going to determine how you approach a season, that these three guys are going to be in a statue someday. If that's your

mentality, guess what? You're going to be in the play-in because the team's not good enough. You might well be. And it's one thing to consider, are you going to trade Klay Thompson? And it's quite another thing to consider. Klay Thompson wants a max contract or a gigantic contract in the offseason.

What are you willing to pony up for this version of Klay? And that's a much thornier conversation to have, statue or not. That that's a much thornier conversation to have, statue or not. That contract's not happening. Just, I don't know if Klay realizes it. Our last old guy is Kevin Durant, who at age 35, the last time we talked, he looked a little gamey on opening night.

We were like, oh, what was that? That was weird. And since then, he became Kevin Durant again. And it's still a weird team. I can't get a feel for them. I think they're too small. I think there's too many guys who could just bully ball them in a seven-game series. But then we also haven't really seen Booker cooking.

Nurkic has miraculously managed to stay healthy for four weeks. We'll see if that can keep going. Spoiler, it will not. It will not. But he's been good and it's just enough to seduce Suns people into thinking, we turned Aiton into Nurkic

and she's put up the same stats. He's actually a little bit of a better passer. I think he'll get hurt. Are the Suns higher or lower or exactly the same from where you thought they were going to be just for you watching them before the season? About the same. I would

say I've been very concerned about their overall injury risk across the roster and the fact that we have not seen a single minute of Durant and Beal and Booker together is kind of why I've been on that wavelength. But at least for Kevin Durant's sake, like Devin Booker has been back

as a regular part of the rotation again because KD is third in the league in minutes per game. He is putting everything he can on his back and on his shoulders. And man, he has been absolutely incredible. I know a lot of people have been a little checked out on the Suns

because their stars haven't all been playing, but he's been killer. Like 34.7 and seven over the last six games. Considering the circumstances of who he's playing with in terms of the just like cast of role players in a lot of these occasions the quality of shots he's able to get and the fact that he isn't taking the fact that he can shoot over everyone as a reason to settle for that shot at all times i think it's just been incredible he's been getting to the

basket he's been getting anywhere he wants on the floor. He's been awesome. It's just they have a really high-powered offense and they are just bleeding points in some of these games, like sweating them out defensively because they can't get any stops, in part because they are so small, in part because their bigs are who they are and have the limitations that they have.

It's going to be that kind of season until they get all their star power back, but who knows when that will be and for how long. I mean, will those guys even have time to really form a coherent bond on the court? Right now, it's a team that a couple nights ago, Grayson Allen played 43 minutes

in a basketball game. I think he's behind Durant. Durant's highest scoring teammates this season, I believe, at least going into tonight, were Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen. That is the state of affairs in Phoenix. And they're at least winning or at least winning a fair number of these games with that going on. One thing about Durant, we're talking about LeBron and how it seems like he gets a little smarter every year. I feel like Durant is

offensively is at a whole other level intellectually with what he's trying to do and how he's dissecting teams. Because one thing I was thinking about tonight watching, it's like, is this really a better situation than what you had with the Nets? When you were with Kyrie and you had Claxton and you had Dinwiddie, and it was basically the same team. It was just for whatever reason,

he's like, get me out of here. Bring me over to the Suns. And now he's playing with Booker instead of Kyrie. Beal is about as untrustworthy as any, whoever the third net was last year. But for the most part, he just kind of switched coasts, but he's in the same situation where they're relying on him a ton. And this is why I wanted to lump Curry and Durant and LeBron together because I just think the workload for those three guys, for what we're expecting coming into the season, is pretty intense. And you're talking about three older guys. For me, I could do seven podcasts a week. But Spotify is like, you know what? We want three good ones. We want you to rest. We don't want you to break down. But that's because they're Swedish, right? The American economy.

That's not what we're built for. Totally. We have wellness week, all kinds of stuff. 100%. We're going to work until our bones turn to dust in this country for the most part. And I suspect that's what's going to happen to Kevin Durant and LeBron James and Steph Curry as well. Well, but it's concerning. One of those guys is going to get hurt soon. And I say that not to jinx them. I'm just saying it's the law of the NBA. And these guys all have a ton of miles and seasons on them. They're playing too many minutes. And they're taking too much of a workload that, frankly, is pretty dangerous. And Durant specifically, I think, is the most dangerous.

LeBron picks his spots. You can watch it. And he's usually straight line. He gets some pounding. He takes some hits when he drives to the basket. Durant's going two ways like he did in 2016. He's been really good defensively this year. Yeah, he's rim protecting.

Doing everything he can. Yeah, and it just makes me nervous because if you're the Suns, you're trying to win in months eight and nine of this season, and you're putting incredible miles on him in month one, and I don't like it. There's the heavy physical toll, and then there's the mental attrition of all this too, right? If you

are LeBron, as we said, when you're out of the game, your team is losing leads every time. When you're Steph, and you're trying to carry the starting lineup that historically has buoyed you and carried you, and it's been a collaborative thing, but this year it isn't. And in Durant's case, you start in this game against Portland, a team

that they should be able to dispatch pretty handily. He has a tough second quarter and misses some shots. And the Suns basically blow a 17-point lead. That's kind of what the situation is for Phoenix right now. They've gone in stretches this season where he's dropping basically 40 a game and they're

losing those games. Or their three-point overtime wins in Utah. And he's got 39 and 14 or whatever he had that game. And that's where having Devin Booker on the floor, if anything, it's like a psychological outlet, a psychological release of, I just don't have to have the ball in my hands

on this possession. I can trust this other guy to create, to work out of a trap, to find the open man so I don't necessarily have to, much less set me up for more opportune scoring situations. I think just having that is worth its weight in gold. But man, if you're doing that for a sustained period of time, and the physical toll is this great, over the course of 82, that's really hard. Even over the course of 50 games or 40 games or 30 or whatever it takes before Brad Beal comes back, the rest of

this team's just not built to accommodate taking things off of Kevin Durant's plate and that's the construction of the way this team was laid out to begin with he needs Beal desperately and Beal gets hurt every year but I think until we see what we get with Beal it's hard to judge this but by the time Beal comes back they might have put too many miles on Durant

but if I was going to say what's the magic elixir for each guy the Suns need Beal to come back and they need those three and they need to give Durant quarters off and maybe occasionally nights off. Curry needs 2022 finals Wiggins to come out of the attic and show up again. I don't know what he's getting from Clay and I'm not even going to put expectations on that because I think the ship, I'm not saying it's sailed, but I definitely think they just took one of those giant ropes off that's tied to the shore. And they might be kind of heading out to sea.

They're swapping the deck at minimum. Yeah, they're definitely like, they're getting ready for a voyage, it feels like. And then the Draymond piece, that's the other one. Draymond could come back and we've seen him do it and have one of those crazy Draymond stretches where he's just the best defensive player in the world for four weeks and is just a maniac

and all over the place and by his intensity and his sheer force and charisma turns their season around. It's also likely that he could shove a ref or get an altercation on a bench with an assistant coach. Like I just, all bets are kind of, he's like entered the Tyson zone in some way. The Gobert headlock, like that was just weird.

And then from on the Lakers side, you know, it's going to come down to Davis. Can he just put them on his back some of these nights so LeBron doesn't have to? And Davis is in his 30s now. I think he kind of is who he is too, don't you think? He definitely is who he is too, don't you think? He definitely is who he is, and man, it just contributes to

a cycle of conversation around him where I would love for us all to be in the space where we can accept together that Anthony Davis is not an every night, huge impact scorer on an every night basis. Yeah. It's just not who he's been. It's not who his game profiles him to be.

And yet, because of the Lakers' specific needs, there's just a spotlight put on those deficiencies on such a consistent basis. I wish they had someone to do more. I love the Levine fit for that reason. I love that trade scenario because I think even just having a guy who can fill it up

and have those explosive scoring nights plus be such an incredible spacer, an incredible movement shooter, that makes all the sense in the world. And then AD is just, oh, you're a defensive player of the year candidate who's also going off for some huge nights now and again. It just puts everything in such a healthier context for him, for them, for God knows our larger sports media apparatus. We could leave on this note. The way you were laying out the Davis thing, it made me think of the seven stages of superstar grief

when you realize somebody doesn't have it. I think Vince Carter was a great example for this. They were Vince Carter. It's going to happen. This guy is still going to be the next Jordan. Really all the way through when he got traded to the Nets. And then it's like, here it comes.

And then it's like, oh, and then Orlando got him for the 2010 season. It's like, Vincent Dwight Howard, it's going to be a problem. And then around 2011, people just kind of give up on it. And I think where this is the year with Davis, where if he can't just throw the Lakers on his back, it's not like Anthony Davis is the player of the week. He averaged 39 points and 19 rebounds in three Lakers wins.

I don't know if he's that guy anymore. I think he can do it once a week. But not for long stretches. I love this idea of the seven stages, though. Stage one, acceptance that your guy does not have that dog in him. Stage two, bargaining to try to get that dog. Can we bring in a Pat Beverly, a PJ Tucker?

Can we light a fire under him somehow? But eventually, we all have to come around to the realities of these situations with these guys. It could be with lesser players too. I think Mavs fans went through the seven stages with Roddy Bubois, who they didn't trade for three years. That was an accelerated timeline.

Yeah, as they kept holding out for Roddy to make it and just turning down these alleged trades that they were being offered for him. Step five is reluctantly admitting that your guy should not be untradeable, in fact. Right. I'm trying to think of some other ones. I'll have to think about that one some more.

The Mikael Bridges as a number one guy, I think I might be entering the grief room pretty soon. Did you see some of the advanced metrics with him? Did that one even fully start? Do we ever get fully on board? There was some buzz over the summer like this guy could be a number one on a really good team and I think he has the worst

isolation offense stats in the league. He was like, what was it, like.69 per 100 possessions. Pretty alarming. It was a little concerning when Cam Thomas started going off and Mikael Bridges seemed, I mean, all was it, like 0.69 per 100 possessions. It's pretty alarming. It was a little concerning when Cam Thomas started going off and Mikael Bridges seemed, I mean, all too willing. Ideal. He was like, this is great. Sounds great.

Do your thing, Cam. Knock yourself out, Cam. Are you doing a Ringer NBA show? Are you doing group chat this week? Tomorrow? Group chat this week. We got a Wednesday show. We got a Sunday show.

We're here for you on this holiday weekend. Heavy rumors. You might be doing Fargo recaps on the Prestige TV podcast with Joanna too. I've heard something about that. I read something in the trades about that. I don't know if it was true. It's me or Zach Levine. One of the two of us will be on that podcast. All right. Happy Thanksgiving. Good to see you, Rob. Likewise. Thanks, Bill.

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when you sign up at youtube.com slash BS. Offer ends 11-27. Terms of bargo's device and content restrictions apply. No cancellations. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives

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through the season. Ruiz, you had a tweet about just being outraged at the Jalen Hurts odds, which hurt my feelings for a second because I have him at 12 to one and it was like one of the only future bets I made that might actually win. He's down to plus 250 as a favorite. But your point was, well, you say your point. Yeah, my question was, what does this award become? And it was less a tweet about Jalen Hurts and more so about the environment that allows a quarterback coming off a game where I think he threw for 150 yards and a touchdown and had a quarterback rating of 69, where that kind of performance propels you into the MVP leader spot.

I mean, by all accounts, he played like a bad game yesterday by stats, by just watching it. The reason why they won that game is because the defense and the run game kept them in it. Jalen Hurts is a part of that run game, obviously. But as a passer, he's the reason why the Chiefs defense looked so good last night. And it's just insane to me that after that performance, that's when you see the line move.

If it happened before this week, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But the fact that he won the game and that's what got him up to the top spot, that's what upset me most about this. Not Jalen Hurts specifically. It was almost like his competitors, they fell backwards.

So he kind of climbed up just because his team won. Danny, we haven't had a non-QB win since famously Adrian Peterson in 12. And then Tomlinson won in 06. And Alexander wrote he won it in 05, which I had a problem with at the time. But somehow over the last 10 years, we've decided only quarterbacks can win this award. Why? How did this happen? For obvious reasons, because they're by far the most important player on the field, I guess.

And it's funny because now we're talking about Jalen Hurts, and my argument for Hurts is not even necessarily that he's the best quarterback or the best passer, the best pure passer anyway. It's like what he does as a runner is incredibly valuable. And so, you know, I guess like my pushback

to Steven would be like, well, what he does as a runner is really valuable. But then you can start talking about like, maybe it's actually Chris McCaffrey is the MVP in the league if we're really talking about running value. But looking at some of the numbers for Jalen Hurts right now,

he has the most total EPA as a rusher in the NFL. And that includes all running backs. He's third in EPA per rush. 53% success rate is first among all ball carriers. First down rate, first. He has nine rushing touchdowns, which is the same as Christian McCaffrey. And he also passes the football. So that would be, I think, the argument, even though I don't know if I necessarily believe

that makes him the most valuable player. You know what I mean? So I think that would be sort of the pushback you'd have. I have one more piece to the argument. The tush push is the most unstoppable play in football this year. And they talk openly about, we feel like it's first down and nine,

not first down and 10 for us. It is the biggest weapon I think that any quarterback has. Mahomes shouldn't win because his receivers aren't good enough. Lamar has been up and down. I guess my question is, I personally vote for Tyreek Hill. I think he was the most impactful player this year. I think I'm still not, the Tua fans get furious every time I say this, but I'm still not sure how good Tua is. And Tyreek solves so many problems for whoever your quarterback is.

I just think he's been the most impactful, scariest, most dominant offensive player and really player on either end. Why can't Tyreek Hill win this, Ruiz? I don't know. I think he's the key to that offense. He's the reason the offense is able to function the way that it does. They do

stuff with like motion that no other team is capable of doing. Like when they motion him and have him run a dig route 15 yards downfield like that's not viable for any other team except for the team that has Tyreek Hill. And I'm not exaggerating when I say that their

offense is built around like four plays and how they dress up those plays. And all those plays are built around him and Waddle and their speed. Every time I watch the Dolphins play, there are times when I'm like, am I wrong about Tua? Like, am I hating on him? Am I not giving him enough credit? And then I watch him play and I'm like, no, I'm not. Like, if anything, I'm overrating him by having him where I am. I'm at the point where I'm almost willing to put Brock Purdy over Tua in the MVP discussion. I think he does more for that offense, for that 49ers offense, outside of the stars on the team, than Tua does for his offense. I think he makes all the same anticipatory throws over the middle. He's doing all that stuff.

What does Tua do that Brock Purdy doesn't do? Brock Purdy scrambles, at least. Well, it seems like a big part of Miami's offense is just to have Tua get rid of the ball as fast as possible so he doesn't get hit. You know, we have enough cool advanced stats now. They're like first and hits allowed on their quarterback, right? He gets hit less than any other quarterback in the league.

Their sack rate is way down, partly because he gets rid of it fast. But you can also do that when you have Tyreek Hill on your team. If he was playing with Marquise Valdez-Scantling, Juju Smith-Schuster, and I'm trying to think of, oh, Devontae Parker, you're not getting rid of the ball in two seconds.

But with Tyreek Hill, he's in motion. They're using him all these different ways. The defenses are terrified of him. And I think to me, that's a big part of the MVP candidacy for Tyreek. It's like, who is the other team the most scared of heading into a week? Lombardi has been on this for years about how he felt like Tyreek was, he called him the field tilter. And I remember last year I was talking about how him with Steph Curry, where Steph Curry can have 22 points in a game, but still dramatically affect the game because all his motion

in the game is just affecting and opening doors for other guys. I do feel Danny, I feel like Tyreek does that not only for Tua, but for Miami. It's because of his speed that they're good. Absolutely. He's the word I use. I like the field tilting thing,

even though that's a little bit hard to picture. I do think he's a force multiplier. And that's a variable that you can come in and affects everything else. It multiplies everyone else on the field. The defense has to tilt to Tyreek because he has so much speed. He can score from anywhere, anytime he touches the football.

So you have to account for that. That opens up room for the run game. It opens up room for the other receivers and gives them an opportunity to have more space and get rid of the ball quicker. There's a snowball effect with what he can do, I think, in the secondary. There's more... I just

like to picture Tyreek Hill. There's more plays where it's like... You know how they do a still image? like to picture Tyreek Hill there's more plays where it's like you know how they do a still image it's like Tyreek Hill scored on this play he's like got six guys all around you know it's like how the hell did he get through the defense he's just like so much faster than everybody else in the field which is of course like it's a field

full of the elite athletes in the world you know and so I would probably lean Tyreek to if it's definitely if it's not going to be a quarterback, I would lead Tyreek. But isn't that the same argument you're essentially making for Jalen Hurts is like the value he presents the Eagles is like the space thing. Like you have to account for this. And I think Tyreek Hill does it in a more unique way. Like an example, before Josh Dobbs got traded from the Cardinals, the Cardinals were like 10th in offensive EPA in run game.

Yeah. Because they ran zone read and they did RPO. Like Jalen Hurts does help the Eagles offense, but it's not in a way where any other option quarter. And let me say the run game, not the pass game. It's not in a way that any other mobile quarterback wouldn't help the run game.

Like not only were the Cardinals really good at running the ball, like just zone read and doing all that stuff that the Eagles do, by the way, they have the same coaching. They have like a similar coaching staff. So there's a lot of overlap in the offense. But they were also really, really, really good at the tush push. They're one of the teams that were doing the tush push. They were doing it even better than the Eagles at one point in the season.

I haven't checked the stats since then. I wrote an article about the tush push like a month ago. But at that point, they had a perfect success rate. They were averaging more yards per EPA, better success rate than Philadelphia. So I don't think it's like a Jalen Hurts thing. I think there's more to it than just the quarterback being able to squat 600 pounds or whatever it is.

Yeah, I think with, I mean, even you look at like how they value the MVP odds, where Tua is five to one and Tyreek is 60 to one. And I want to find the one person in America who thinks Tua is more valuable to Miami than Tyreek. Like that's just insane, you know? And so if you're making the case for Jalen, you know, it's what you just laid out.

It's like, oh, he does this, he does this, he does this. The counter to all of it is, I'm not sure he's played that well this year for him, for what his ceiling is. It's weird to think somebody could win the MVP, but it's like a B-plus season for them. I wouldn't even say it's an A-minus season. I think he's missed throws.

He was terrible in that Jets game. I thought in the Chiefs game yesterday, I thought he missed open guys. And in general, he didn't seem 100% healthy to me. What do you think of just how he played last night, Danny? Yeah, I would agree. And even in the run game where he's so valuable, he looked a little bit gimpy at times.

He's still, I think, coming back from that knee injury, didn't look as explosive as normal. There was a couple of design runs where it just blew up in the hangar. It just didn't get anywhere. So it is a weird feeling. Like you said, it's a great point that it doesn't even feel like he's playing that well,

especially even relative for what he can do, like what we've seen him do. To give him the MVP in a season where he's not even playing at his best is a little bit weird. I would contrast that with Lamar Jackson, who is probably playing his best football right now. But there's, I think, just some recent stuff.

He had a really bad pick against the Browns. That kind of narrative-wise is going to make him hard to win that. But I think overall, he's passing. And Steven, maybe you could speak on this. He's passing, I think, better than he has in the past at any point in his career. Yeah, I would agree with that. I think he gets better as a passer every year.

I just think like some people just jumped a little too far ahead with him and like put him in like the top five elite passer. I think collectively, like everything he does on the football field makes him a top 10 talent, maybe a top five player at the position. But like as a passer, it's clear to anyone who watched. I don't know how you watch and don't come away with the feeling that he can improve a lot as a passer. Every time I watch him, I'm like, there's

a lot of meat being left on the bone here. So, the two guys that could jump over the next couple weeks, Prescott is at 15-1. And I don't think they have a good win yet. Have they beaten a team with a winning record? Probably not. But they're a team with a winning record? Probably not.

But they're going to play Washington on Thanksgiving. And I could see him having like a 370-yard, four TD, runs for a TD. And then all of a sudden, why can't Dak be the MVP? That momentum will start. Could see that. The other one, ironically, is Mahomes.

Because yesterday cemented the narrative of, oh my God, poor Mahomes. He's got nothing to work with. And sometimes those are the greatest years that QB can have. I always mentioned the Brady 2006 season, but Brady was amazing that season when none of our receivers could get open and we almost made the Superbowl. And you know, what if Casey ends up being a one seed and it's going to be all because of Mahomes, right? Because of the fact that he can just basically grab all these spare parts and Kelsey and turn them into something. But I could see that happen. I still feel like Tyreek is the value though, because even you look at, he's got 200 yards more than anyone else in the league receiving. He's got nine touchdowns. He has a chance. I had it wrong. Sal and I talked about it on Sunday, and I was looking at the numbers, had it been updated. He has a real chance for 2000. I mean, I actually would bet on him getting to 2000 versus not getting 2000. He needs 778 more yards in seven games.

And you figure one of those games will be 200 yards. So it's basically 500 plus for the other six. But I'm trying to think of the media narratives and how they unfold, especially over the last couple of weeks. And you'd think it'd be like, why can't it be Dak? You don't understand how much Jalen Hurts does.

Tyreek Hill, 2,000 yards. He's the real MVP of that team, especially if they go 14 and three. Lamar, if he has like a strong finish and can get a one or a two seed. What other narratives would be out there, Danny? Is there a Brock Purdy narrative you're buying? To me, there's just too much talent around him.

It's like the antithesis of what's going on with Mahomes. Mahomes is dragging this offense. It's like a top 10 offense by DVOA, at least last time I checked. And he's dragging that offense into being good. And then on the other hand, you've got Brock Purdy who has all this talent around him. It's like literally maybe the most perfect situation for any quarterback ever. And so

that to me is where I don't know if I buy that. It is kind of tough to argue with his numbers in terms of if you're talking about narratives, though. His numbers, he literally just had a perfect pass rating. They're talking about for the first time since Steve Young and Joe Montana, it's like, well, this is where narratives start to kind of take over. But going back to the Tyreek thing, like when you were talking about how you like that value, my first thought was like, are they really going to give it to this guy?

You know, like there's, this is just a, you know, the media is obsessed with quarterbacks, but you make a great point where if he gets over 2,000 yards, everyone's going to be obsessed with that. It's going to be like, wow, this is unprecedented. Basically, that could be enough, I think, to propel him into the real conversation there.

Well, you could also, he could have the one crazy game always helps. If he has the 240-yard game with two 80-yard touchdowns, then it's like, all right, what are we doing? He's got to be the MVP. Or if he gets hurt. If he gets hurt for like two games,

that's all that he needs, really. Mike White. Yeah. We talked about Brock Purdy without talking to America's number one Brock Purdy critic, Steven Ruiz. We're in national news stories

about being critical of him, but he's done a little better for you. Where is he in the rankings now? Where do you have him? After this week, he's going to be 20th, I think. It gets hard because we've added so many people to the list like Tom Brady's in the list.

Caleb Williams, Drake May. This guy named Tommy DeVito, some Italian man from New York is in the rankings now. I don't know. But yeah, the intro to the quarterback rings. I write one every week is actually about Brock Purdy and about how I've been silent during like his little cold streak.

I wasn't talking too much. I'd sent out like a joke tweet about the record since Peter King asked about it. But I honestly thought those were some of the more impressive games outside of the turn over. It's like you started to see him become more decisive as playmaker. I think he's been more comfortable in the pocket. He doesn't panic as much as he used to, especially last year. Last year, he was just like a chicken with his head cut off.

This year, I think he's more calm. So I'm giving him that credit. I just think that we need to pump the brakes. That was always my argument. I always felt like I wasn't being the weird one with the birdie discourse. It was the people trying to propel this Mr. Irrelevant into this elite quarterback conversation,

this MVP discussion. I thought I was being normal by saying the guy that was drafted with the 200th pick a year ago is the 20th best quarterback in the world right now. That's a pretty big accomplishment to me. I don't know. But these performances are all in the range of outcomes

for a quarterback, talented like he is, in an offense like he is. Him playing like he did against the Browns, that's in the range of outcomes. Him playing like he did against the Bucs or playing like he did against the Jaguars, that's in the range of outcomes. So I'm not really surprised. I just, I don't know. The needle on Brock Purdy hasn't moved much for me over the past month. Can you answer this question? If we flip Tua and Purdy, what happens this season? I think both offenses look different, but I think Miami's offense is better. Like I said, I'm getting close to the point where I think Brock Purdy is a better player than Tua.

What do you think, Danny? That's a really good question. Um, I, I very fascinated to see what Tua would look like in the Shanahan scheme. Cause like you'd mentioned earlier, like he's just such a quick processor. I think that's one of Brock Purdy's strengths is that,

you know, decisive and he, and he basically goes where he's supposed to go. You know, he's like usually making the right calls. Um, and that's, I think the strength of Tua.

So I'd be very fascinated to see him in that offense. You hate the 49ers and you have to root against them. Does Brock Purdy scare you? Dan is a Seahawks fan. No, if I'm being totally honest, no, it's the talent around him that scares me.

It's Christian McCaffrey. It's Brandon Ayuk. It's George Kittle. It's all the talent they have. The offensive line is really good. Their defense is one of the more intimidating units in the NFL. That, as a whole, is what makes the 49ers, I think, such a scary proposition to play.

It's not like, oh, Brock Purdy is going to slice and dice us. That's maybe true, but it's I believe more like, because Kyle Shanahan's, it's the Rui's like the microscope meme. It's like, I'm worried about who he's going to pick on on our defense more. It's not necessarily Purdy, but

maybe that's unfair, honestly. I don't know. Well, I feel like Brock Purdy with this podcast because I'm just surrounded by talent. I'm just trying to move the ball forward. I felt like AJ Brown wasn't out of the MVP race until last week when he put up 0.8 fantasy points and absolutely murdered me.

But that was, and there was one throw and he was wide open and Hurts missed him. But for the most part, it seemed like KC was very determined to not let him beat them. But I think the ship sailed for that. And then from a running back standpoint,

McCaffrey's at 825 yards, nine touchdowns, plus all the receiving stuff. And that could be another big game guy. There's going to be a big game guy over the next two weeks that will get MVP momentum. The bigger question for me, Ruiz,

does anyone care about the NFL MVP the way we care about the NBA MVP? If I asked you to name the last 10 NFL MVPs, could you do it? No, I couldn't. And I don't think they do. I don't think it's the same type of award. Could you do it, Danny? Could you name 10? No.

The last 10? No, I feel like I could guess. I can name the names. Like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady. But no, I couldn't do it in order, I don't think. Matt Ryan won the 2016 MVP. Oh, yeah. Anyway, I interrupted you, Rhys.

I was going to say, I think it's just a different award. It's even given out at different times. The NBA award is given out before the playoffs start. The NFL award is given out before the Super Bowl. And I think part of the reason

why it doesn't matter as much is because it's become a quarterback award. I don't know when exactly that happened. I would say it was around 2012. But I remember the year when I realized that one, a defensive player was never going to win the award and probably a quarterback,

a non quarterback would never win it again. And that was that year. TJ Watt like started playing offense and scored a bunch of touchdowns. It was carrying the Texans and they made the playoffs. And I think Brian Horry was the quarterback. And I think he received like one or two votes. Yeah. They've just decided, defenders, I can't win this, basically.

What would you have to do? Have 30 sacks and two pick sixes? He was literally playing offense. He had like 25 sacks, 100 pressures. He scored three times as a tight end. I think he had a couple of defensive touchdowns. And no, not even close.

So, I don't know. I just don't even think any other position has a chance. And that's kind of what I'm lamenting. I think it would be a more interesting award. And I think people would care about it more if more guys could win it. Maybe this should be something Goodell. I mean, God forbid he ever does anything for the fans, but maybe he should just be like, you know what? I looked in the mirror and we're not doing a good enough job with the MVP. I really want to, let's all figure this out. It's because as you know, I care about the MVP way too much. And especially in basketball, I care about the MVP and the NBA. Cause I think it's a good way to have a snapshot of who mattered during a specific season. You can look back, you know, 2019.

Oh yeah, that was the Lamar season. You go back to the Cam Newton. Oh, that was the Cam Newton season. When we get to like Matt Ryan winning in 2016, it's like, I just don't know. I remember he had an awesome season and Atlanta was really good, but I don't think there was ever a moment

where anybody was like, that's the best player in the league. He should win. So I don't really, not really sure what we're trying to do with this award. And this is going to be the worst year yet. Unless somebody can stretch themselves, then we're just like, all right, we couldn't think of anyone. Here's a quarterback. Let's just move on. That's why it's got to be Tyreek. It's got to be Tyreek because I think Tyreek is that guy. This has been a season where it's like, holy shit, how do you stop this guy? Every week.

To me, it's always a little bit watered down and confusing because there's an offensive player of the year too. I feel like we need to get rid of that or something and then that would make it easier for a receiver or running back to win. But usually I feel like people are going to

default to being like, oh, Tyreek will be the offensive player of the year, and then we'll give the MVP to a quarterback. What do you want to happen, Danny? Do you have a vote? None of us have votes. No. Who votes for this? Nora does. Nora has a vote.

Nora has a vote. Yeah. Gotta start lobbying to Nora then. Why do you think I'm railing against Purdy so much on the pod? I'm just trying to get it through her head. It's an inception situation. Last thing on Tyreek, and then we'll go.

I think he's moved up to three on my all-time receivers I've seen in my lifetime list. I have... Let's talk two. Rice is always going to be number one for me. Somebody's going to have to be really... Almost like a cross between Tyreek

and AJ Brown for me to kick Rice out. Just the shit he was doing compared to the other receivers when he was doing it, it was unbelievable. The all-time money receiver I've ever seen in my life and just was always open and always not only open, but running full speed and was just completely terrifying at all times and was amazing. And it didn't matter who his quarterback was. And Moss is two for me because there were some highs and some lows. And he certainly was a handful at times,

but I've just never seen somebody more dominant at that position. There was just no way to basically defend him. And you could just throw it up for him and there were three people there and he'd catch it anyway. But I think Tyreek might be three for me. So you guys are younger than me.

What is your list if it has to be people you remember seeing in your lifetime? I saw the end of Jerry Rice, but my older brother was a 49ers fan, so I knew a lot about Jerry Rice growing up. And he's number one for me. I know everyone in my generation thinks he's overrated and he wouldn't make it in this era, but I've seen his stats. That's number one for me. I know like everyone in my generation thinks he's like overrated and he wouldn't make it in this era,

but I, I've seen his stats, the worst ever. I saw him as a 40 year old man, like go for a thousand yards with rich can and throw into him. I don't like, I he's the best, he's the best player ever.

He's not the best receiver ever. He's the best player for me. I think I'm with you. I think I would put Moss second. And I think I, I'm getting close to putting Tyreek third. My comparison for Tyreek is it's Steve Smith. And it's not Steve Smith over the course of his career.

It's 2005 Steve Smith. Oh, that one Panther season, Steve Smith. 2005 Steve Smith. When it was Jake DeLone throws a screen pass to him and he takes it for 80 yards and he scores. That's what the Panthers offense was. But with Tyreek, it's not one year. It's been every year for the past couple of years. And the fact that he's done it twice in a row in a new offense without Patrick Mahomes,

with a quarterback that we all think is limited and is especially limited when throwing downfield in certain ways. I'm not going to do the Stephen A. Smith thing where I say he doesn't throw downfield, but driving the ball downfield into tight windows. He doesn't do that well. And a quarterback like that would get more out of Tyreek Hill, I think. And the fact that he's still producing with that type of quarterback, he's probably

one of the top five offensive threats in the history of the league in terms of game plan. Danny, some people throw T.O. in this conversation, and I go nuts. T.O. is a fucking cancer on multiple teams. Literally submarine seasons, he was so hard to deal with. A lot of drops too? over the middle of the Packers. And then, oh, he played a broken leg in the Super Bowl. But he was really detrimental multiple seasons. And I just think that has to matter if we're talking about like the all-time, all-timers.

So who do you have? Who's your top three? I think so. Like Jerry Rice was a little bit before my time. I mean, obviously I watched him, but I would say the guys that immediately come to mind for me are like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald. Um,

Larry Fitzgerald to me is like as close to like the Jerry Rice in terms of like overall career, just the excellence from start to finish. He put up more numbers. Like I think he's second or third at all time in receiving yards and catches. So he's, he's like up there with the longevity and like total numbers, but just watching him play

so dominant, so big, so strong, and he just did it for so long. And I got to see him, obviously. He was with the Cardinals for a long time, and so like playing against my Seahawks always just like demoralizing. I actually have him fourth. I

could not agree with you more. And he also had the weird, just didn't have a quarterback for like five important years of his career. Nobody to throw it to him. Like in basketball, you never have that situation where it's like, I couldn't put up stats that year.

We only had four guys. We're only allowed to play four guys against five. In football, you can literally lose half your career because you didn't have a quarterback. And that definitely happened to him. Yeah. And then, you know, Calvin Johnson, just in terms of uniqueness. I like

a lot of these guys that think Tyreek, unique player in terms of pure explosiveness, the most explosive player I've ever seen on the field. Yeah. I have them five. And then Calvin Johnson, just the way he moved at that size and what he could do, the catches he could make, like the difficulty of catches.

You could throw it anywhere in his area and he would come down with that kind of deal. I think Julio Jones had a little bit of that too, though. He never scores enough touchdowns, I think, to be in that conversation. And then the other guy, of course, is Antonio Brown, who was just incredible. He's definitely in the top 10.

Yeah, there's another baggage guy. If T.O. is not in it, Antonio Brown can't be in it, but he was very good. T.O. is in the, if you're doing the top 10, top 12 for me. The guy that got lost at the time was Sterling Sharp because he got hurt, but for four or five years there,

he was just as good as any of these guys ever, and then he just had a neck injury and that was it. All right, so right now our recommendation on FanDuel was just as good as any of these guys ever. And then he just had a neck injury and that was it. Right now, our recommendation on FanDuel would be Tyreek Hill 60-1.

But, can I throw one long shot at you? Take a flyer on this. Danny's old friend, Russell Wilson, 201. Just for fun. People are talking about him.

You know, their four game winning streak can't be ruled out. Would you take a flyer on him, Ruiz? No, but I would bet Sean Payton for coach of the year. I was on that train a couple of weeks ago.

I think I had him before the year. I can't remember off the top of my head, but yeah. Danny, your guy Gino's still at 20-1. He's the exact same as Russell Wilson. That feels like a win in some weird way. Everybody's guy, Justin Herbert,

he's free-fall to 150-1. He went down after Sunday. He went down after Sunday when he played a perfect game. Tough times. I don't know. The football nerd community is just running out of ways to keep lifting him up. Now it's got to be, if Brandon Staley

could just leave and the defense could take the pressure off him, what are the next three excuses we're going to use? He's on the Chargers. Come on. Mike Williams, he's out. It's every year with Herbert. Excuses galore. Is he over 500?

This year? No, I don't think. Career-wise, is he? They won 10 games each of the last two years. I know they missed the playoffs two years ago, but they won 10 games when they missed it. Brandon Staley is above 500 coach.

Jesus. Well, that just goes to show you. Ron Rivera is above 500 coach. Jesus. Well, that just goes to show you. Ron Rivera is still over 500. He said 10 losing seasons out of 13 and is still somehow over 500 because he had that 151 season. Herbert's 29 and 30, according to PFR. Oh, Ruiz.

Tough beat. He was 500 last week. What's Brock Purdy? He's like 30 and 2? Let me pull this up. 31 and 3? Him and Jalen Hurts are like a combined 60 and 4 over the last couple of years.

And those are the quarterbacks I choose to shit on. I'm pulling it up. Hold on. He is 12 and 3. 12 and 3 is solid. Well, Tim Boyle is going to be own one after this week

and we're going to talk about him after the break Ruiz we can read the QB rankings and everything else you're doing on the ringer.com

plus you're with Nora twice a week on the ringer NFL show good to see you thanks for having me all right we're going to do some million dollardollar picks.

It's rare that we bring somebody back two weeks in a row, but dangerous Danny Kelly, who barely knows anything about gambling. All I know is we went 4-0 last week in the million-dollar picks. The train is in the positive. We won $1.2 million last week. We're up to $270,000 for the season.

This is one of the most fun gambling weeks because we have three Thursday games. We somehow have a Friday game and a bunch of Sunday games. And more importantly, we have enough data now that you can start comparing holes on teams against holes on other teams. This is just...

I felt super optimistic the last couple weeks. I feel optimistic again this week. Let's talk Thanksgiving really quick, though. Yeah. So the most obvious parlay ever, which, by the way, I really like, and you can get on Fando, I think it's plus 100, is just take Detroit over Green Bay in the early game

and take the Cowboys just to beat Washington and take the 49ers to beat your beloved Seahawks in Seattle. And those are even odds. And just all three favorites are going to win. They all need the games and just drive that one home. Who screws that up? Who's the party crasher for that one? Is it the Packers?

Is it the Washington Commanders? Or is it your Seahawks at home trying to send a message to the Niners? I think, and this is not the Homer in me talking, this is more just looking at history, the Seahawks could play spoiler to that. Even though they were one of the teams I picked that I think I would want the 49ers in this case.

But if any of these teams will play spoiler, I think the Seahawks could do it. Looking past, before last season, Seahawks actually had pretty much dominated the head-to-head matchup between these two teams

for a long time. These are really, really big rivals. They hate each other. The Seahawks fans are going to be massively fired up in this game. So, you know,

there's a little bit of maybe the noise and the home field advantage going there. I think that could be the reason why the Seahawks could do it, but I don't think they will. I think the 49ers will win this one. I do as well. I watched your team for three hours lose for the Rams last week.

We had the Rams and million-dollar picks. I had some money on the Rams. The Seahawks just aren't that good. And now you'd lost Walker. So you're down to basically one competent running back. Geno hasn't been great. And defense, holy shit. So looking at the stats,

like the Niners are third and first downs this year. They're sixth on third down in the league. Seattle's 30th. Their defense is 30th on first down. They're 29th on third down. Yeah, yeah. You think somehow your offense is also 30th. And then you think San Francisco's third against the rush defensively,

and you have the 25th rushing offense. That was with Walker. Right. This feels like a mismatch in all these different ways where I can actually see San Francisco killing Seattle, and I'm trying to figure out, how does this game go where that doesn't happen? And that would either be some purdy mistakes,

or you just get lucky with the, not lucky, but every once in a while, Lockett will have one of those two long catches games. What's the roadmap for them even doing well in this game, Seattle? I mean, really, the only thing that comes to mind is just that they know each other so well. These teams know each other so well. They've played

so many times. It's like a divisional matchup. They're always kind of close, although I will say... So the 49ers won the last three matchups. They beat Seahawks at home. Last year, they destroyed them at home. They won a touchdown, or sorry, eight points in Seattle late in the season,

and then they absolutely destroyed them in the playoffs. And so they are clearly the better team right now. I think that's the main thing. The 49ers are really ridiculously good. Like you said, Seahawks are kind of I don't know what they are. They're not very good right now. Yeah, you think even the 49ers' really ridiculously good. Like you said, Seahawks are kind of... I don't know what they are. They're not very good right now.

Yeah, you think even the 49ers, Funk, Trent Williams is out, Debo's out. They have seven, eight really good players in their team and they lost two of them. They just lost Sofango, which isn't awesome. But they picked up the pass rusher. Yeah, Chase Young. Your team feels like a pretty flimsy 6-4.

Yeah. Even that game yesterday, I thought Stafford was just... He was like watching a car try to make it at the end of a cross-country trip. I don't know how many more weeks he has, but what do you think, less than three as a starter? It just seems like he's just breaking down. And somehow he was able to pull that one out.

So I'm probably... I am personally the most afraid of the Packers in that scenario. That game, the Lions are favored by seven and a half. The Packers, it looks like Aaron Jones is out. And it looks like the Lions will be able to run the ball in this game because they have a top five rushing offense. Green Bay's 28th against the run. But I do think the Packers have found a little something

with throwing the ball the last couple weeks. Yeah. And maybe that helps with who they were playing. But, you know, Watson, they finally got him going a little bit. They got Reed going the rookie a little bit. And Love just feels a little friskier. He was to me a complete write-off.

There is something that worries me about the Packers just throwing the ball in this game because we've seen two straight weeks teams moving the ball on the Lions. The Bears did it with their run game. The Chargers were able to throw on them. Could the Packers just throw on them? That worries me more for the minus 7.5

than just the Lions winning. I still believe in this Lions team. And I thought they showed a lot of character scoring 17 in the last six minutes. On the other hand, they shouldn't have been in that position in the first place. But I think they can run the ball in the Packers. But I wanted to fight that.

Did you see anything you liked from the Packers the last couple weeks? I mean, I'm with you. I think Jordan Love had a really tough sort of middle part of the season. And then over the last three weeks, I've seen that he's had, I think, seven big-time throws over the last three weeks, which is one of the top numbers in the NFL. He's made some really nice deep throws.

His accuracy down the field has improved dramatically because that was a big part of some of his struggles early on. It's like they would take these shots. It's a big part of their offense is they do play action. They run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, and then take a play action shot downfield, and he'd just overthrow the guy by five feet. And now I think he's getting more in sync with his receivers,

and that's another big part of this is this receiver core is all 22, 23 years old. And so it's like they're all growing together. Yeah, you know, Jayaden Reed definitely showed up. I think he could be another guy. He was on the injury report today, so hopefully he'll play. But he's another guy that can kind of play that Randall Cobb-style role where they were giving him runs. They were giving him end-of-round-type plays.

He can move in space, kind of, you know, hybrid sort of running back receiver-type guy. So he could help with Aaron Jones out. But yeah, I agree they're frisky. This was another... I thought the option that I thought about was maybe teasing the 49ers and the Lions together. So I looked at that long and hard too.

There's a couple ways to go here. We haven't talked about the Dolphins yet either. Yeah. And the Dolphins are minus nine and a half against the Jets in the first Black Friday game. And the Dolphins are minus nine and a half against the Jets in the first Black Friday game. And the Tim Boyle stats, I was on a flight for six hours just researching million dollar picks and just killing time and watching Liam Neeson movies. I had no idea Tim Boyle was like that devastatingly bad of a quarterback. The college resume is awful. The pro resume is

non-existent. Somehow they found somebody who's worse than Zach Wilson, which seems impossible. And he's going against a Dolphins defense that I think has gotten better as the seasons went along. Even if you just look at the most simple stats possible, Miami has scored 305 points this year and the Jets have scored 150. They've scored twice as many points as the Jets. So I just feel like this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to bet on the worst offense in the league, adding Tim Boyle on Black Friday against Miami,

who is going to at least get to 20 points. And if you put all four of those money together, Lions, Cowboys, Niners, Dolphins, and you do a little Thursday, Friday combo parlay money line. That's plus 135. Alright. Which is fairly enticing. Is there anything you've seen from the Jets that would make you

pause on that one? I mean, just the basic idea that the Jets defense is still really good. But... Is it really good though? Is it? Are we sure? I think that I think they're good enough because they're 30th

against the rush so that has to matter like a tiny bit, right? Yeah, what I was going to kind of get to I think is like they're good but at the same time I can see the Dolphins

just like wearing them out long enough and this is not like the Jets are going to struggle it feels like to score on the Dolphins team so they can just keep at it they can keep doing their thing

with the run game it'll be interesting to see if Devon A. Chan comes back it feels like to score on the Stealth and Steams. So they can just keep at it. They can keep doing their thing with the run game. It'll be interesting to see if Devon Achan comes back. It's unclear if he's really hurt bad because he only played a couple of plays and then he re-injured his knee. So we'll see. But Raheem Mostert is still out there. He's good.

And they still have Jeff Wilson. I think they can really just continue to run and just kind of wear down the opposing team. I don't think they really have to worry too much about the Jets scoring a bunch of points. So yeah, I'm with you. I think it's money line's safe on this one, I think. Well, one way we could do it

is we could tease the Lions and the 49ers and that could be one bet. And then we could also do the four-team money parlay for the plus 135 to get all four of them involved. There's also, this will drive Raheem. Raheem just is going to drive into traffic if he hears this, but there's a 14, 13-point tease you could do.

So you could take the Lions to plus five and a half, the Cowboys to plus two and a half, the 49ers to plus six, and the Dolphins to plus three and a half, the Cowboys to plus two and a half, the 49ers to plus six, and the Dolphins to plus three and a half. The reason not to do that is it doesn't help you enough with the Cowboys game. To tease somebody to plus two and a half. By the way, people would say don't do that anyway, but I did hit a 13-pointer last week. All right, let's move to the Sunday games. I asked you to come up with at least two that you love. So give me one of them. All right. So the first one I want to talk about is the Saints versus the Falcons.

Oh, I had this one too. Okay, let's hear it. So hopefully we're on the same page here. The Saints have beaten the Falcons nine of their last 11 games. And Desmond Ritter is back. I feel like the Falcons, just across the board,

are a pretty bad team. They're 29th in overall DVLA, 25th offense, 26th defense, 28th special teams. The Saints have more talent. I think the reason the line is where it is probably is because the uncertainty at quarterback. Is it going to be Jameis Winston? Is it going to be Derek Carr? I kind of don't care. Like, honestly, I kind of hope it's Jameis Winston. That's kind of where I am.

So Jameis or Carr, I kind of feel like the Saints should win this game. The counter would be is Ritter bad or did he play bad? What do you think is the difference? I think he throws a good long ball,

which I enjoy. I did think their offense moved, and a lot of it was the self-inflicted wounds around the end zone and stupid red zone shit and just kind of bad clock management and bad strategy and things that had nothing to do with

whether he might be okay. I did feel like at least he could throw the ball. So he's better than Heineke, but I'm with you. Like, could the saints defense just shut him down? I worried the, the reason I was looking at it was because of the Jameis piece of it.

Yeah. Where, where, uh, just Jameis starting against a team that has a pretty decent defense this year. They're 7th against 1st down. They're 4th on 3rd downs. They're 6th in red zone.

They're 9th against the pass. The Falcons' defense isn't horrific. And could they get a couple picks on Jameis? The game's in Atlanta. I had it marked, but I'm not sure if it's a stay away or not. Is it fun to, is it the right move to bet on Jameis Winston?

I guess that's my question. Is it the right move? No. So you're out on the Falcons. It sounds like. I'm kind of out on the Falcons. You do bring up a good point that the red zone stuff has been a factor. And then it feels like Arthur Smith kind of finally got bullied into using

B. John Robinson in the red zone finally. And so that could be like a difference. But I don't know. I think this is probably logically a stay away with Jameis. But for whatever reason, I was drawn to that. I want to bet on Jameis for some reason. All right. So here's the first one I was looking at.

Browns getting two and a half points in Denver. This would be a straight 100% Cleveland defense bet. Just a pure I don't think Denver will be able to move the ball against this team wager. Cleveland's defense

first in basically everything, especially first against the pass. I don't think Denver can throw the ball. And when they do, it's either Russ scrambling out of the pocket and then just throwing some lob screen pass or the two times a game when he just throws it up for grabs with Courtland Sutton.

I don't think they're going to be able to move the ball. And I don't think they've ever seen anything like what they're about to see next week. And then on the flip side, Cleveland's rushing game is good. It doesn't seem to matter that they don't have Nick Chubb. They're third in rushing right now. And Denver's defense is 32nd against the run. So could Denver just take a three-nothing lead, run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, and then that's it? And is Denver really going to win five games in a row? This just seems off to me. I think this game

should be a pick-em. You could also take the Browns at plus 116. You could get a little funky, potentially, and take the Browns' laying points. You could do Browns minus two and a half as plus 140.

Could get wacky doing that. But what do you think of the Browns? I think this is a great one. You've convinced me. I agree with you. I think the Browns and the Broncos are going to have the same game plan in this game. It's going to be trying to run the ball,

control it, don't turn the ball over, and play that bully ball style of game. And I think the Browns are just better at it. And they'll control this game. And I think that pass rush is going to make life very difficult for Russell Wilson, who's for a long time sort of subsisted on his ability to scramble around and make plays out of structure.

And they just have so many guys on that front and so many guys that can chase him and make life hard on him. So I kind of like this. It's like, yeah, I don't think either team is going to throw a lot. Do you think the under is a, it's over under 35 and a half? What do you think about that? The under seems almost too easy,

but you could potentially. Right. No, I'm with you because you could potentially do the, you could do Cleveland plus three and a half and then you could do an all total points under. So what do you, so it's at 35 right now.

So we could jack it up to like 44 and a half is minus four 60. What are the ads that these teams score 45 points? I think it would be like an extremely weird game if they did that. So, so you could do, yeah, yeah, you could do that.

And then you could go to Cleveland plus three and a half. That gets us to minus 105. We could buy the half point with Cleveland. Or you could just go bold and you just say Cleveland's winning this game and nobody is scoring. Oh, that gets us to plus 142, Danny. Okay. Cleveland to win under 44 and a half.

So they would have to have 45 points to beat us. That would be 24 to 21. Yeah. Does that seem conceivable? I mean, no. For the people who can't see this, Danny's just grinning. I mean, no. For the people who can't see this, Danny's just grinning. I mean, anything can

happen, of course, but it doesn't feel likely at all. I feel like this is going to be a 9-6 game where it's just a couple of field goals. Right. So then, you could jack it up to 40. Oh, wow. You jack it up to 46.5. That still gets us plus

132. It's going to be two teams running. They have to score 47 points to beat us? Yeah. There's not going to be enough clock. They're both going to be running the clock constantly. Yeah, all right. We're going to do something in that, Rainn.

All right, what was your second one? The other game I was looking at was the Rams at Cardinals. Let's hear it. Again, the Rams have dominated this matchup over the years. They've won, let's see, 12 of the last 14 matchups, including one of those games they lost,

John Walford was the starter. So that doesn't really count. I understand that Cooper Cup may not play, but I feel like their passing game was still good enough when they had Atwell and a couple other guys going. Pukunukua is a baller. They're getting Kyron Williams back this week.

In theory, Matt Stafford will be maybe a little bit healthier. And the Cardinals' defense is still really bad. They are giving up the sixth most points per game, 25.8. They've given up the fifth most passing touchdowns and the third most rushing touchdowns this year. They have the 31st ranked defense by DVOA. So obviously the Kyler variable is big here. But the Rams has just dominated the Cardinals over the years.

And I don't think this is like an especially good Cardinals team outside of Kyler. So this line right now is still Rams plus one and a half. I thought Kyler looked pretty good the last two weeks. I actually thought he looked as fast as he did before he got hurt. I was surprised. But yet they only scored 16. Would they score 16

points against Houston? Yeah, I think so. Here's my fear with this bet. How many more healthy weeks is Stafford going to have realistically? It's funny. The whole team, it just feels like they're so beat up right now. Every time Puka Nakua catches the ball, he's slow to get up. It's like we make the joke.

He looks like John Wick at the end of the movie. He's just bleeding, limping. That kind of feels like Stafford and Puka and Cup and whoever. I agree with you. That is a concern. But I don't know. Stafford is one of the toughest guys out there. Puka and Cup and whoever. I agree with you that that is a concern. But I don't know. Stafford is one of the toughest guys out there.

Well, they also need the game. And I guess one of the things to watch for with the Cardinals is I know we don't have tanking in the NFL, but last week was the perfect outcome for them, right? They lost the game, but Kyler was good. Yeah, they're competitive, the whole thing.

The next one I had for you. Wow, I can't believe I'm going to even bring this up, but the Steelers against the Bengals. The Steelers are favored by, right now, it's one and a half against Jake Browning. Washington's own. You're from Washington. How many Jake Browning conversations were you in?

Uh, there's quite a few going around in the text chains. Uh, you know, I think the general gist is people don't have a ton of faith in him right now. Yeah. Okay. That's it.

That, that, uh, joins with my beliefs as well. Pittsburgh. I just think the defense can win. Here's the sneaky thing about Cincy. We've had enough games now.

Their defense just hasn't been that good. They're 22nd in DVOA. They're 31st in yards per play. 29th on first down, 28th on third down. Steelers fire their offensive coordinator finally this week. I don't know if that's going to be necessarily the new coach bump,

but it'll be a little better. They're also realizing that Jalen Warren should just play. Austin talked about that in part one. Just feed Jalen Warren. And I think this feels like the death of the Bengals season. Yeah.

I do think I'm a believer in the new coach bump in this specific case for when it comes to coordinator. So many of the team just did not like Canada. Like the players that come out and talked about it, like the scheme, like the lack of imagination. I think that there's a, as I described it, a kids jumping up on the desk and dancing type atmosphere

right now, probably. Like the teachers out of the classroom, the kids are all just super stoked. And so I do think there's a bump there and like you said with Warren he's I think he is literally the most explosive running back in the NFL right now if you look at all the all the advanced stats explosive play

rate yards over expected all that stuff he's like elite in that area and so that's at least an advantage I mean I'm very interested to see if they can figure out a way to get Kenny Pickett going but but yeah I don't love the Bengals in this one I think this is a good call at least an advantage. I'm very interested to see if they can figure out a way to get Kenny Pickett going. I don't love the Bengals in this one.

I think this is a good call. Steelers minus one and a half. The only other one I wanted to throw at you. Ravens at the Chargers. The Chargers defense is just legendarily bad. They're either last or almost last in

any category you want to look at. Including 28th in yards per play. And Baltimore's first in yards per play. And they're third on first downs. Third in passing. And just, when you watch them, when it's going well for them, it looks a lot

like what Detroit looked like two weeks ago against the Chargers, where it's just like, oh, we'll do this. That'll get eight yards. Oh, let's do this. That'll get 12. And the Staley thing, it just feels like this is basically the last chance they bet against Brandon Staley. So the Lions four, which I don't love because especially with the cheap touchdown potential, but I do love the Ravens in this game. And I think it's going to be I think a last stand for Staley. What do you think about the Ravens? This game is

I've called the Ravens Chargers East a couple times this year just because I feel like they are so unpredictable at the end of games. For whatever reason, they have this magic ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. They're not to the level of the Chargers, though. And I do agree.

They're like one of the best teams, if not the best team in the NFL. So I like this one. It's just to me, they're a little bit chaotic. But maybe this is like betting on Jameis. Maybe we just get a little wacky because it's unpredictable. But I do think just they're a better team overall. What if I did this with you? What if we did a little Ravens

Saints tease? Or a parlay. We brought the Saints to plus three and a half. That's minus 180. And then we combine that with

the Ravens. The Ravens are down to minus three and a that with the Ravens. The Ravens are down to minus 3.5 now. Ravens minus 190. That combo is plus 137. Not really great odds on that, to be honest. Let me check one more thing here. If we do the alternate, maybe the alternate spread with the Ravens,

let's bring that down to two and a half. And that will get us to minus 160. Oh yeah. Plus 151. That's a little more exciting. Saints plus three and a half Ravens minus two and a half plus 151. What are your thoughts? I like that.

I like that a lot. All right. The million dollar picks for week 12, Thanksgiving week. Dangerous Danny Kelly helped us get to 4-0 last week. We're going to open it up. We're doing the worst possible thing is making all our bets on Tuesday, not knowing the injuries. So listen, if any of the weekend games, if there's some major injury, like if we have the Ravens in this. If Lamar gets scratched on a Friday, guess what? Voiding the bet.

I can make my own rules here on Million Dollar Picks, but it has to be a big scratch. So it would have to be Stafford or Lamar or, that's really it out of anybody we have. All right.

Million Dollar Picks. Week 12. We are going to jump all over Thanksgiving. We have a little Lions-Niners tees. Lions tees them down to one and a half against the Packers. Slightly worried about Jordan Love, but not 100% worried. And then we're teasing the Niners down to one against Danny's beloved Seahawks.

This is a talent mismatch, unfortunately. I don't know if we're going to have a very fun time on Thursday night with that game. We're going to tease that. We're going to put 250K on that. And then we're going to do the most obvious bet of all time that I actually think is going to win. Lions, Dallas, San Francisco, all the favorites on Thursday combined just to win with the Miami Dolphins against, tell them who the

opposing quarterback is going to be one more time, Danny. Tim Boyle, who I know a lot about. Tim Boyle, one touchdown, 13 picks at UConn. He's starting on the first Black Friday game. It's going to be a Black Friday for him. This is the guy they found to replace Zach Wilson. Yeah, his credentials are

he's friends with Aaron Rodgers. So anyway, this all sounds great. Those four favorites together, plus 135. We are putting 200K on that as well. And then we go to the weekend games. Ravens money line. We like the efficient Ravens offense against the inefficient, confusing, disturbing Chargers defense.

We're going to take that, the Ravens money line. against the inefficient, confusing, disturbing Chargers defense. Yeah. We're going to take that, the Ravens' bunny line. Danny loves the Saints. Make the Saints case quickly one more time. Saints against the Falcons. I just think the Saints have dominated this matchup. They have a more talented team. They have a more balanced team.

And I don't even care whether it's Derek Carr or Jameis Winston. I think either guy is going to be better. So I don't trust care whether it's Derek Carr or Jameis Winston. I think either guy is going to be better. So I don't trust the Falcons. I care because I'd rather watch Jameis Winston and I can't watch Carr check down for three hours. I mean, from a fantasy point of view, rooting for Jameis, no offense, Derek. Yeah.

So we're going to do Ravens money line with the Saints adjusted line plus seven and a half. The line for that bet is minus 105 and we're putting 300k on that. Next one. We both love the Browns. The Browns, they're playing the Broncos. I don't see

Denver winning 5-0. I don't think Denver's offense has any chance against this Cleveland defense. It is a full full-fledged back in the Cleveland defense bet. I also don't mind DTR. I think he can actually move around. He's not a disaster.

He's not like Zach Wilson level. We're going to tease that up a tiny bit or move it up to Browns plus 3.5 parlayed with the under of 46.5. They would have to score 47 points to beat us. That line is minus 116. We're putting

300K on that. Steelers minus one and a half against Jake Browning and the Bengals. This feels like the official end of the Bengals season. More importantly, Matt Canada, new coach theory. Danny Kelly says qualifies. Great vibes. Excellent, excellent vibes. The kids are loving it. They're dancing on the desks.

The teachers are gone. They're throwing toilet paper out the window. Everything. All right. George Pickens, they might actually call more than two plays for him. Maybe run him over the middle of the field or something like that. Who knows? Jayla Morin, who you said was the most explosive back in the league right now. Maybe he'll get more than 15

touches. We're taking the Steelers minus one and a half. We're putting 300K on that. And then last but not least, Rams to win the first half against the Cardinals. Rams to win the game against the Cardinals. Plus 170. We're going to throw a token 150 on that.

150K. See how that goes. And those are the million dollar picks for week 12. What's your favorite side for Thanksgiving by the way? Good question. I was looking at recipes today.

I got to say like a pecan pie. Is that count or is that dessert? I guess that's dessert. That's dessert. Come on. The sweet potato, like a sweet potato something or other. That's fine. Sweet potato casserole. That's what I was looking for. I was literally looking at

just recipes online today and my mouth started watering. I was like, I'm kind of getting excited for this. So yeah. Yeah, there you go. This is why we're undefeated on Million Dollar Picks together.

Hopefully it keeps going. Danny Kelly, happy holidays. Thanks for doing with us. Thank you. All right, that's it for the two-parter. Thanks to Danny Kelly and Stephen Ruiz and Rob Mahoney. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti as well.

Have a great holiday. Enjoy yourselves. I'm going to be back on this feed on Sunday with the Cuz. Can't wait. Happy holidays. Must be 21 plus and president select states. I don't have to. in Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. You can call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona. Call 1-888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. 1-800-9WITH-IT in Indiana.

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