The Bill Simmons Podcast - Part 2: The Mysterious 49ers, NFL Draft Props, and Washington’s Sleeper-dom With Warren Sharp

Episode Date: April 15, 2021

The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Warren Sharp to discuss quarterback Justin Fields's draft stock seemingly dropping, what the 49ers will do with the third pick in the 2021 NFL draft, the Dolphins' win-win situation with the sixth pick, NFL draft prop bets, future bets, the NFL Hall of Fame, and more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, you know, it's a great thing to have when the Yankees are collapsing in mid-April, which seems to be happening right now. It's a New York sports podcast. It's called New York, New York with John Jastrzemski. He is on there at least three times a week. Plus he's doing some emergency podcasts too. You know, like this week when, I don't know, say the Yankees are already collapsing and it's mid-April. Oh my God. I love it so much. New York, New York with John Jastrzemski. You can find it on the Ringer Podcast Network. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite. I've been a big fan of Miller Lite, man, since college days when I was allowed to have beer. I think nephew Kyle is a fan too.

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and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus and present in select states. Gambling problem called Win 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com. All right, you're listening to part two of our special two-part podcast

that we taped during, basically over the course of April 14th. Jackie Mack was part one talking NBA. This to part two of our special two-part podcast that we taped during, basically over the course of April 14th, Jackie Mack was part one talking NBA. This is part two with Warren sharp, which has every kind of NFL angle you're looking for. It was great to see him again. First let's, let's bring in our friends from Pearl jam.

One more time. Pearl jam. Come back. Warren Sharp is here. He was a crucial addition to our Ringer NFL show last season. He's coming back this season as well. And also you can find him on sharpfootball.com. And he loves this time of year.

The draft is, we're two weeks away. People are making trades. There's weird things happening. What storyline are you monitoring the most right now? What's number one for you? Well, I guess it's what's going to happen at number three. That's the biggest question that's still out there because people still want to debate it. I think another one is tied into that is the fall of Justin Fields with some of the rumors that are circulating about him.

So those are probably the two biggest. We wrote about Justin Fields today. Caitlin Jones had a really good piece about basically how stupid this whole thing is, because one of the narratives that took hold was, ah, he's bad at re if his first reads out there, he falls apart. And then a lot of people started crunching the numbers on this. And I think the consensus was like, this is just not a real narrative. What is this? What is going on here? Because I, you know, you had your mock draft guy and one of them on sharp football had the Pats trading up to seven, getting fields from Detroit flop and picks with them.

I've been on this pod for a couple of weeks, kind of praying that the Pats could land him somehow. I think he's clearly either the second or third best quarterback. I would have him second, but what what's happening in your opinion with him and why, why is he dropping? It is possible that, you know, certain analysts talk to teams that indicated that there was some concerns about one element or the other with him. That is possible. I can't say that those teams, no team would say that, but there are also going to be other teams that really like him. And I can also tell you that there are teams that have massive questions about some of the other quarterback, other potential quarterbacks in the draft who would be taken by the 49ers

in that same position, Mac Jones. I mean, Mac Jones was aided tremendously by the offensive scheme of Sarkeesian and all the different read option type things that they were utilizing in Alabama. Well, and the weapons he had. The weapons were phenomenal. We also saw Tua struggle a little bit in the NFL last season. And the same types of things in terms of looks and comfort could end up occurring for Mac Jones. But I will say this in general with regard to the 49ers and their move

up to three, because I don't know why I haven't talked to the teams who believe that there are issues with fields. So I can't speak to that. But what I can say is that the 49ers traded a massive draft haul in order to move up to number three. It's very rare that teams will trade three first rounders. Obviously, they get a first rounder back to move up to three. But what's even more interesting is you're not even getting the first or second best quarterback. You're giving up this massive haul to add a ceiling, get the third best quarterback. So why are you giving up this haul? Well, for me, there's only a couple of things that make sense here. First, there's no chance they did this without knowing exactly who they were taking all these rumors that came out of,

well, they're open to multiple quarterbacks that cannot be true whatsoever. They absolutely know who they're taking.. They knew that before they gave up this hall. Second, no chance they did this thinking the guy that they really like is the third best quarterback in this draft class. They have to be doing this because they identified a quarterback who is not Trevor Lawrence, who is not Zach Wilson, who they think is better than those guys they think will be their franchise defining quarterback. And that's who they're going after. And, you know, guys like Adam Schefter, he came out really strongly to suggest that this was going to be the pick, that the pick was

absolutely going to be Mac Jones and then backpedaled a little bit. But I actually don't really think it was necessarily a strong backpedal. I think people are reading into that too much. I think the reason he went so hard on it initially is because there was all this, well, they're open to anybody. We're not sure who they're going to take. And he's like, no, it's absolutely going to be Mac Jones. And then probably there was a little bit of pushback like, hey, why are you saying this so strongly? So he toned it down a little bit. I would still lean towards them taking Mac Jones at this point sitting here today though. Is it crazy to you that somebody gave up three first round picks for the chance to take

Mac Jones when they're already paying Jimmy Garoppolo over 20 million a year? I think it is crazy because I think Mac Jones with everything that he was aided by with the Alabama offense. Now, not saying Kyle Shanahan doesn't aid his quarterbacks. He obviously does. But if you go back and you look at who has won for Kyle Shanahan and you look at this laundry list, I mean, he's granted he's had to deal with a lot of backup quarterbacks. He had to coach a lot of guys that don't have as much talent as the third overall pick would have, or Jimmy G would have, but there's only a couple of guys that he's actually won with in the NFL. Most of the quarterbacks that he's coached have not won. So his system is the best in the NFL. As far as I'm concerned, I think he's the most creative mind in the NFL on the offensive side of the football. I love Kyle Shanahan, but to suggest that Kyle can win with anybody is wrong. They absolutely have to nail this pick. And it's just surprising to me that it would be Mac Jones giving up all that much because there are certain things that Mac does really well that he benefited from a

great offense at Alabama, but he's really good at a certain select things. But I don't think he has the ceiling nor the width of skillset like some of the other options in the draft. This doesn't pass the spaceship test to me, where if I was on a spaceship for four years and I just landed and you were updating me on the NFL draft and you were like, yeah, So the Niners, they traded up. There's this guy fields, you know, we're thinking he could be the first or second pick during,

during the college football season. And now he's dropped. There are no real reasons for it. And this other guy who barely played until what the last year at Alabama, um, we're going to, he's, he's going to end up being the third pick. We don't really have a lot of game

experience with him. He's not as athletically talented as Fields. He doesn't have the ceiling that Fields has, and he hasn't produced in big games the way Fields did, but he's going to be the third pick. I would just be like, what the fuck is going on? Wait a second. What? Why? And that's the part I don't get. I don't get the part why, how Mac Jones is a massive upgrade from Garoppolo who almost won the Super Bowl. Yeah. I mean, if you go back and look at that 2019 season, I think a lot of people, because I was on the opposite side of this entering the Super Bowl. I was on Jimmy G is being underrated with the season that he had in 2019. Everybody's thinking that

Kyle's going to have to, because remember the NFC championship game where they called a million run plays and it was like, oh, are they just, are they scared of what Jimmy G could do? But the reality is Jimmy G had some great statistics that season. They were the most explosive passing offense in the NFL over the last four years with Jimmy G there. I'm talking about plays that get percentage of plays that gain 20 plus yards. I'm not suggesting that he's like an upper echelon, great quarterback. His biggest issue is he can't stay healthy. And that could be why Kyle's like, look, I got to get a guy, Kyle. He's been there four years. I think people, because they had the 2019 Super Bowl appearance,

people think that Kyle has done more with this team than what they've really done. This is a team that's gone four and 12, six and 10, six and 10, and then the Super Bowl season of 13 and three. They have not been very good, but Jimmy G has started more than six games, only one of those four years, even though he's been their starting quarterback, like three of the years, he started three, five and six games. So he has not been able to stay healthy. And that could be why they're like, look, we like Jimmy G when Jimmy G is healthy, we can win. He can run this offense, but we need somebody new who maybe has a higher ceiling than Jimmy and who can potentially

stay a little bit healthier for us. Maybe they think that's Mac Jones. I agree with your spaceship theory, though. It just seems crazy to me that that would be the guy that you've identified studying the NFL. And you're like, oh, my God, there is a quarterback in this. I think about this before last season, Bill. There's a quarterback in this draft. We are so excited. We're going to give up three first round picks to go get this guy. And then it's Mac Jones.

It doesn't make any sense before the season started that that would even be a discussion. And I think several years from now, there's a chance Kyle could elevate his play, but is he worth this amount of draft capital? I tend to think no. Well, from a durability standpoint, who's a better bet than Fields? The guy's built like a brick shithouse. I mean, when he's like 26, 27 years old, he'll probably be even 20 pounds heavier than he

is now. And he's just got one of those bodies. I think there's like a Roethlisberger kind of physical element to him that, you know, if you're comparing him to the quote unquote athletic quarterbacks over the years, I guess Josh Allen was another one that just seemed like, oh, that guy's, that guy's got a, got a body that's going to last versus when we go with like the RG3, Lamar, Josh Allen, like those kind of like skinnier guys. I just think like field's going to be there. I I'm stupefied by all of this,

but did you feel like just in general, if they do feel like that's a franchise QB at three, just quickly, was that too much to give up? I have the, when they do start doing the draft charts and shit like that, and you're basically giving three first round picks to move up, like really perennially in NFL history, you're only doing that if it's a guaranteed superstar. And it doesn't seem like at three, I don't think there's a guy with the kind of pedigree like that, unless it's fields. I think that they gave up too much to get Mac. But in general, if they've identified, like I said, if they've identified this guy and they think this guy is the best in this class, and they would take him number one, if they had that pick giving up three ones to get him.

And if they think it's going to work, I think, I think it's, it's, it's okay. It's a lot, but it's okay. What would a lot, but it's okay. What would you have given up for Russell Wilson? I know the Seahawks and Niners would never trade each other, but what if Wilson was on the table? How many first-rounders is he worth? If an unknown guy at number three is worth three first-rounders, how much is Russell Wilson?

How much would Watson have been before all the troubles that he had? Is that five? Yeah, I don't know. I don't really know. But those guys are known commodities that are great. And like you said, we're projecting that Mac would be great if that's their choice. We're projecting this guy would be great. I still find it very hard to believe. Is it possible we overrate first rounders? Because the NBA has had a great reckoning with this over the last few years, where they've just, the value of first rounders for trades when you're getting like a top 10, top 15, top 20 guy has just gone through the roof. Now teams are willing to give up

five or six first rounders and swaps and stuff like that if they feel like they can get an actual blue chip guy. In football, we haven't seen that necessarily happen. But you had some stuff on your Twitter feed the other day about, or maybe it was yesterday, about the Raiders and how many swings they had in the first and second round versus how badly they did with the picks. And you think like, all right, if I'm trading all of this draft capital, but I'm getting Russell Wilson versus I just take all of those picks, what is it, a 50% chance you're going to do well on the picks?

I know with the Patriots the last few years, their drafts completely fell apart. They could have traded every pick they had for established guys and probably done better. So do you think teams, the Rams kind of started this, but do you feel like there's a real trend happening now? I think the picks are worth what the models are suggesting. There's a variety of different models now that we're using that are better evaluation tools than the Jimmy Johnson methodology, the old one, which tried to value,

you know, the number one pick would be worth X and number two pick would be with Y. But in general, I think it's just a very difficult job to evaluate kids that are 19, 20, 21 years old, try to project them into your offense. Um, when they played such different caliber of competition in college with different teams and different strategies and to project them into an NFL system. And if you just go back, I'll just throw out a list of names. I mean, this is a crazy list, but probably don't remember this guy. Jason Smith from St. Louis. This was 2009. You got RG3 in 2012, Luke Jokel in 2013, Greg Robinson, 2014, Marcus Mariota, 2015, Carson Wentz, 2016,

Mitchell Trubisky, 2017, and Saquon Barkley in 2018. You know what that's a list of? The number two picks in the NFL draft. So we're not even talking like the 13th or the 25th, we're talking about the number two picks in the NFL draft. Only two of them got an additional deal with their team that drafted them. And both those guys got shipped out of town. Marcus Mariota was down in the Raiders. Carson Wentz now went to the Colts. Those are the two guys. Everybody else, we don't know what's going to happen with Saquon, but none of the other guys got additional deals with the team that drafted it. And that's the number two pick. These are like the can't miss type prospects.

The NBA is the same thing with the number two pick. It's always a bad luck pick. It's so funny with the top five picks, how actually secretly unreliable they are. But then you see a guy like Kyle Pitts and you're like, that guy's got a hundred percent chance he's going to be a monster NFL player unless he gets hurt. The only scenario where he's not a monster is if he has some terrible, you know, knee injury or like some of the stuff that, that played Gronk. But it's weird that they don't just gravitate toward the sure things. That guy has a sure thing, but he might go like sixth. Yeah. I would be surprised. He definitely could go sixth. I think that I thought that that draft that, uh, now Kuyper came up with where some tradebacks was ridiculous. But I do think that Atlanta at four, they actually give themselves a longer leash.

New coach, new GM. They give themselves a longer leash if they go pits there. Because I do think he's a generational talent. Rather than drafting the fourth best quarterback of this draft class, even if Matt Ryan is bad next season, you probably are going to get better than the fourth best quarterback of 2022 class or 2023 class if you end up being pretty bad. And if Matt Ryan is good under Arthur Smith, which I think he will be, Arthur Smith's offense and his philosophy is going to be

raising Matt Ryan ceiling this year. I think that offense is going to look better pits or no pits. If you use a backup quarterback there and all of a sudden Matt Ryan looks even better. What are you going to do? Not play the guy that you drafted fourth overall the next year in 2022. No, you're going to have to stick Matt Ryan on the bench or trade Matt Ryan. And I just think that I would much rather Atlanta go with pits at four. It buys their GM more time. To be honest, I think it's a better move.

But the cool thing that I like about pits that sometimes wide receivers, if you look back at the history of wide receivers drafted in the top 10, it's not very good. It's not very pretty list of guys that have had success once they've been drafted that high. But Pitts, because he can line up at a tight end and because he can do enough with blocking, this is the old Bill Belichick philosophy, like I don't need a great tight end to block,

even though Gronk became a great blocker as a tight end. I just need somebody who can do enough to get in the way. But I want a guy who can create mismatches all over the field to line up with guys that aren't used to defending him. And that's what Pitts would deliver. And I just can't wait to see who he goes to. And I really do hope he gets to work with Arthur Smith and Matt Ryan. Well, if he just gives you the last seven Travis Kelsey years,

that's worth the fourth pick in this draft. Absolutely. And that, just athletically, physically, talent-wise, the whole thing, that's worth the fourth pick in this draft. Absolutely. Just athletically, physically, talent-wise, the whole thing, that seems like a really fair comp. Could he be someday as good as Gronk? I don't know if he's the blocker that Gronk is,

but I think those tight ends... I've been talking about this for a couple weeks on the pod. I just think if you have a chance to get a once-in-a-decade tight end in the top five, top 10, wherever it is, that's the hardest thing to find. And those are the hardest guys to match up with. You can put speed guys around him.

Kelsey, assuming he stays healthy, he's going to do this for another six, seven years. He's going to own every tight end receiving record we have by 2027. The thing with pits, that would be really fun. Atlanta. I agree with you. That would be a good one. I still find it hard to believe a quarterback's not going to go there

because I think they'll be able to flip that pick. And there's so many assets that you'd really have to look at and be like, is Pittsburgh. We moved back four spot, five spots to Denver. We moved back 11 spots to Denver. We moved back 11 spots to the Pats, but we're also getting all this other equity when we kind of are in a pseudo-rebuild

anyway. I think that's what they would have the big reckoning with. But the fun scenario to me would be if they traded that pick for four and then he dropped to Miami at six. And I wonder if this was Miami's plan all along when they went back to 12 and then traded back up to six.

Pitts was the guy they wanted. They just didn't want to take him at three. So I think he goes four, five, or six. There's a prop on, maybe it's not even there anymore. Maybe it's positions. I think it's the first non-offensiveensive player taking the under five and a half is his draft prop right now. I can't find it on.

Oh, the player over under. Yeah. Kyle Pitts over under five and a half right now. I think he goes in the, I think he goes one through five. And by the way, why wouldn't the Bengals take him? They're not attached to him. It's always like either they're taking the tackle Sewell or they're going to take an impact receiver. Why wouldn't they take Pitts? Pitts is the best receiver in this draft.

Right. If you're talking about pure receiver, Daniel Jeremiah had a great analogy. It's like, if you're scared to draft a tight end this high, just write wide receiver next to his name. He'll be an excellent wide receiver for you if that's how you choose to utilize him. And a lot of the mocks that I'm seeing are mocking Atlanta at four. And I do agree with you that the two strongest options for them are take pits or trade down. I really don't think it's going to be take a quarterback, although for them, like maybe somebody else moves up to take a quarterback and potentially once Mac Jones goes at three, that would be the situation where their phones might start ringing, right?

Like for teams that had interest in any of the other top quarterback candidates out there like Trey Lance, like Justin Fields, like that's when their phones might start ringing and they can work a deal at that point in time. But otherwise, I think it's, it's, it's straight back or draft, uh, draft Kyle pits. But I agree Cincinnati, if he falls to the five, I think that's where they should be taking him. Um, I, I would prefer having Kyle pits. He gives you more options as a offensive play caller than having Jamar Chase. I know there's relationship with Cincinnati Joe Burrow's familiarity.

In addition, there are people that want Cincy to take an offensive lineman instead to help protect Joe Burrow who ended the season on IR. But I think Pitts would be an excellent candidate to go either four or five. Well, it also depends on

how good you think Sewell is, right? Because some people think Pencilman for six all-pro teams. I don't feel like he's got the kind of buzz that a typical franchise tackle would get. It seems like he's like one level below. But if the Bengals decided, we think this guy is a franchise tackle for us

and this is what we need even more than, you know, a toy for Joe Burrow. I could see it. Where do you feel on Sewell? You think he's that good or is he level below? I think he's great. And I think that what Miami is looking to do is they are looking...

So for many, many years, Miami and Chris Greer have drafted just outside the top 10, right? They got to a last year, but most of the other years they're trying to make some mood, build their team. They're drafting just outside the top 10. And many of those picks haven't really hit. And, and I think what they did, people are looking at it as two separate moves. The trade, it was basically a three-team trade that was organized prior to when it was announced. And that's why the secondary part of that came so close in proximity to being announced. It wasn't like, oh, well, we just did this trade. Is anybody? No, it was all

done at the same time. And the decision for Miami to move back up, that was part of the original move. So I know people are like separating them out and grading them as separate moves. Miami would not have made the initial trade with San Francisco to just stay where they would have been picking. They wanted the whole part of the move and the whole trade in general was to come back up to this point at six to get a major difference maker for this team, a blue chip prospect who is clear difference maker, a franchise caliber, not quarterback, but caliber type player. I think it probably would be Sewell or if they felt like it's one of those receivers,

like if Chase falls to them or if it pits falls to them, I could see that too. But they're looking to get somebody who they really think will be able to help define them on offense for several years to come. And to me, it's got to be Sewell or maybe it's Pitts. Well, you talk about what Miami did. They didn't want to take quarterback at three. They figured that if we end up at six, we're getting either the best tackle, the best receiver, or a generational tight end. We know we have one of those three things. And if somebody goes QB at four, if Atlanta trades

out of there, now we're going to have two of those three guys left at six, right? Exactly. I was really impressed with Miami. I thought the way they've handled everything has been like kind of the way when guys like us go on podcasts and we talk about how dumb everyone is and why don't they do this? Why don't they do that? Miami was like one of the few teams where it's like, oh, cool. They're actually operating like, like we always wonder why teams don't do it this way. I've been very impressed by Chris Greer, that whole front office staff with what they've been doing and how they've been building this roster, how they finally have solid draft

capital. I think we overlook the fact that last year was so difficult for rookies to make an impact. The Miami Dolphins had the most draft capital of the 2020 season in terms of rookies that weren't able to contribute like they would have in a normal season. They're going to have a benefit from all those rookies playing in 2021. And now if you look at the last two years combined, they have the most overall draft capital over these last couple of years. I think they're positioning themselves really well. Yeah, they could unravel with two is not good.

That's like, that's the whole thing. He's holding all the strings together. One guy. And the same is true with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Philadelphia Eagles have the number one most capital next year. I think they're like top three over this year and next year combined.

But it all hinges around the quarterback actually working. And I think from their perspective, it's actually not the worst scenario in the world, right? You need your quarterback to work. And so if Tua or Hertz doesn't end up working, that's a negative. But the positive is you've reinforced your team with a lot of other talent over the last couple of years, and then you can go get another quarterback. Not that it's easy to find a franchise quarterback, but you're plugging him into a team that's built and able to support a quarterback coming in and winning. It's like the last one that stands in my mind is like a Ben Roethlisberger where that team went, what, like 15 and one, I think his rookie season with a great defense and an offense. And it was built around the wrong

end. They had a lot of good players on that team. They didn't need him to do very much. That's what either Miami or Philly, Philly's got a ways to go, but could be in a position to do something like that if those guys don't work. But I 100% agree, neither of those teams will reach any type of ceiling over the next two years if the guy that they have right now in the building is QB1 doesn't pan out. We'll take a break. I want to throw some draft props at you. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis

Kelsey. Before he rocked that Super Bowl ring, he rocked that super soup strainer. Grow a mustache for Movember. You'll do great things too. You won't win the Super Bowl, but your fundraising will support mental health, suicide prevention, and prostate and testicular cancer research. And if you don't want to grow a mustache, you could still walk or run 60 kilometers, host an event, or set your own goal and mow your own way. Do great things this November. Sign up now. Just search Movember. Coming back, just a couple fun draft props. Fields, his over-under on Fando is 4.5.

So, if you're betting he'll be a top four pick, it's minus 146. I think that's how this works. If it's under, that means it'll be under 4.5. Yep. I find it hard to believe he's dropping out of the top four.

But I also wouldn't bet it because I think we've learned that the NFL is just ridiculously dumb sometimes. People do dumb stuff. And it feels like this is going to get fucked up.

And to me, this is like the greatest thing that could have ever happened to Fields. Him dropping out of the top four, him having a huge chip on his shoulder. Like this is like everything you'd want if you're getting a franchise QB who's also mad he didn't go higher. Sign me up.

I'm in on that. But would you go over or under for him? I kind of want to stay as far away as possible from somebody like that, because I just don't know. And we really don't know. Somebody in San Francisco knows what they're doing at three, and that could trigger what happens at four

with a trade down. But if Atlanta's there at four, I just don't see them going that direction. Could be wrong, but I don't see them going that direction. Jalen Watto is 11 and a half for his over-under. And I don't really see a scenario where he goes in the top 11. I think that's a guy who conceivably could fall to the Patriots, which somebody, I was texting with Mina Kimes and Danny Keller today, and they were asking me, what would be my dream scenario for the Pats? And I said, my number one dream scenario is Fields, that we somehow get him

and the price isn't prohibitive. My number three scenario would be a Jimmy G trade. But my number two scenario is Waddle falling to 15 and the Pats signing Minshew. And people think I'm kidding with this Minshew thing. I think Minshew is better than decent. And I think if they gave him a ton of weapons, I would rather throw the dart at the board on that than pay a ton of capital to keep my fingers crossed that I'm getting a QB unless it's fields, but I certainly wouldn't do it for the other two guys. Are you in on Minshew at all?

Or am I insane? Tell me if I'm insane. I don't think you're insane I think he is still a very underdeveloped prospect and I think because he didn't play a ton at Washington State he obviously had experience prior to that he had a little bit of experience in Jacksonville so far but I still think that there's something to minchu beyond the allure of his mulleted mustache that could be interesting in the nfl as a starting quarterback how about 37 his arm 37 tds 11 picks career and he was hurt last year his arm and his passing ability is above Cam Newton, which was what you were working with last year, in my opinion.

Yeah, so I think he would raise the ceiling of your roster to bring him in at probably a lower cost option. So I would not be, I would be in favor of that. I can see why you are liking that. So if you like that, I would be in favor of that. I could see why you're liking that. But I do. So if you like that, I'm happy. Cause I think with Jimmy G, like, I don't think they're getting him for a second round pick

and you raise the durability concerns, which are the valid concerns with him. He's an expensive guy who has not been able to stay in the field. So why do I have to trade a first round pick for that? I would just rather roll the dice with Minshew. And if he's not good, then I'm back, you know, next year I'm back finding QB. Why do I have to trade a first round pick for that? I would just rather roll the dice with Minshew. And if he's not good, then I'm back, you know, next year I'm back finding QB. Anyway, Jalen Waddle is 11 and a half.

I think he falls out because of the broken ankle. Um, I think he's pretty much the consensus third guy. I just don't see three receivers going on the top 12. Do you? I don't. Um, I think that there are a couple of teams that need offensive line help. There are obviously a lot of QBs that are going to be going, and there's a couple of other stud receivers that would be above him, especially with all the news that we've been hearing about the Giants locking in on Devonta Smith. And Dave Gettleman has not been difficult

to read two of the last three drafts. The whatever circulating around what he's interested in has been what he ends up selecting. And the rumors right now are Devonta Smith to help Daniel Jones and not Waddle. Wait, hold on. Hold that thought, because I know you have opinions on this. So this is a common NFL NBA mistake. You make a mistake. Which in this case, it's Daniel Jones. You then to try to salvage the mistake, you double down and push more assets toward the mistake to try to save it.

Or as it's more commonly known, the Trubisky. So in this scenario, you have the Giants. And by the way, that taking a receiver there, I mean, he might be really good. That might be the right pick. But the reason to take him can't be, we got to get Daniel Jones more weapons because they already spent a shitload of money on Kenny Galladay.

And it's not like, you can keep buying incredible appliances for your house, but if the house has a rotted foundation and there's rats in the attic and the toilet keeps busting, like that just is what it is. You can doesn't matter how nice your TV is. So what what do you think of the concept of giving Daniel Jones more assets? Well, I do think that there's something to compounding the problem when you double down, as you're suggesting. The Giants are an interesting case scenario because it's not as if the Giants last year, right? And I know Daniel Jones wasn't

there the whole season, but it's not as if the Giants had terrible turnover luck in games and that's how they lost. Or it's not as if, well, they lost all these one score games. No, they went five and five in one score games. They were plus zero overall in turnover margin on the season. These are the things that tend to cause teams to lose versus win is because they get too many turnovers. You know, uh, they lose too many one score games on variance. That really isn't the case. This team is being limited by Daniel Jones and they will forever be limited in my opinion by where Daniel Jones is. Um, but they're not, they're not going for a quarterback here. Uh, they obviously are going to be going for some other asset. And I agree. They just got Kenny Galladay, which is,

which is a, a nice plug into their offense. Um, But developing another young wide receiver to go with Daniel Jones or whoever potentially follows him is not the worst thing in the world, in my opinion. That's another team that should trade for Minshew, honestly. Minshew's had way more success

than Daniel Jones. Way more. In two years. He just has. Trey Lance is seven and a half for his over-under. He seems to be the wild card of this. Like if you told me right now, Atlanta's going to take Trey Lance is seven and a half for his over under. He seems to be the wild card of this. Like if you told me right now,

Atlanta is going to take Trey Lance. I'd be like, oh, all right. Makes sense. They bury him for a year, get one more year out of Matt Ryan, whatever. But he's also the guy that could easily fall to Denver at nine. I think Denver is going to take a quarterback if one lands there.

The question for me is the trade-up possibilities of if the Pats really got excited for somebody, could they move up to Dallas at 10? Could they move up to Detroit at 7, et cetera? But where would you bet on Trey Lance or would you stay away from that one? So we've got two guys that came in to the website, Sharp Football Analysis, and are great at

mocking their track record over the last four or five years has been the best in the industry with some of the sites that measure it. And one of the guys has Trey Lance going to the Patriots at 15, falling all the way to 15. Oh, I think I think that would be a stretch. I think that to me, Trey Lance could be the interesting prospect for Kyle Shanahan at three. That being said, I really think that there's such a wide range of uncertainty with all these great quarterbacks that right now I've got a short list of props that I'm looking at for

the draft and none of them are, you know, where will this quarterback go? Because it's just so difficult and so many dominoes are going to fall based upon one move that a team makes or doesn't make that will then trigger a lot of other things. I think that a team will trade up to get Trey Lance. I would be surprised if he falls to New England at 15 without them having to do anything. The other thing I'm curious from your perspective, you know, New England was abnormally aggressive in free agency. Do you see them being abnormally aggressive in the draft in terms of trying to move up and get some impact players?

Because that's obviously something that they haven't been doing. The NFL tries to make things equitable so that the best teams have the worst picks and the worst teams have the best picks. And New England has been one of the best teams for so many years, but they've still managed to have above average draft capital almost every single year for what their record was because they trade down so much and accumulate a lot of roster capital, draft capital. But do you see them going the opposite direction this year after the free agency splurge? He doesn't trade up usually. No. I can only remember two cases of it ever. So I'm not expecting them to trade up. But it

goes back to your trade chart analysis. Let's say they could move up to nine or 10. I don't think that costs another first round pick the way the trades have gone. Once we get past the top five, maybe that's a second, a third, and a swap of fours, something like that. I don't know if you'd necessarily need a number one. So for me, he just loves having picks. I think he looks at it as like, he's almost like a guy playing six spots at a blackjack table, just trying to get a blackjack. I would be surprised if they traded up.

But I will say with the aggressive free agency thing, we should mention to the listeners, you did hurt my feelings on a text chain with House about Nelson Aguilar. You were not a fan of that signing. You said we overpaid. I tried to make the points that he was open really for the entire season. Last season on the Raiders, he was open constantly and he's a speed guy.

It was low risk. It was a two year deal. And I really liked the trade. And you just, you, you just threw cold water all over me and I didn't appreciate it. Yeah. Well, there was the other time of what were we talking about the other day? It was Edelman. I wanted to save that for the end. Edelman's Hall of Fame. Can't see. But yeah, Nelson Aguilar. So you're not a fan. You didn't love what the Pats did in the free agency. I didn't love what they did. I thought that they, the tight ends I like, but they, by signing the guys when they did, you could tell like a guy's not going to sign day one, a free agency to play

with Cam Newton or whoever the quarterback was going to be in new England. Like it's not Brady, right? So you're not taking discounts day one. So if the Patriots are signing these guys day four, day five, you know, okay. Some of these guys couldn't get their money elsewhere. They ended up deciding to come and play with the Patriots. Maybe they got a good deal. They're out the gate signing all these guys the first day. You know they're giving them top dollar deals. That's what gets signed on day one

is teams that are willing to overspend to ensure that they're getting their players. And doubling down on the tight end, I can't wait for the Patriots to use two tight end sets. I love when the Patriots use 21 personnel or 12 personnel or these non-traditional sets at a very high level compared to the league average because I think it's a massive edge

and more teams need to try to play outside the lines a little bit with some of the different personnel groupings on offense to make themselves very unique and difficult for a defense to defend on a given week because they rarely see stuff like that as frequently as an offense might throw at it. So but they spent a lot on those tight ends and Aguilar in particular. I mean, he showed I know that last year was his best year. He played for a one million dollar contract because that's all he could get for the Raiders last year was the veteran minimum. Wake up call. Maybe it changed his career.

It could be, and I could be wrong, but I just saw a guy who was not very consistent with his performance. He played, I think it was 10 of 16 games in a dome. Okay. With the Raiders last season, because they're now a dome team. I didn't like that part. A lot of games in a dome, a lot, a lot of, a lot of great weather conditions.

New England's a totally different scenario there. You're going to have to judge the flight of the ball a lot differently. Very few dome games. So, um, I, I just, I didn't love the signing.

I thought that they overspent for him. If they could have gotten him for less price, I would be more open to it. I think they just spent a little bit too much. Listen, don't piss on my dream of Jalen Waddle, Aguilar, speed guys on the sides, my two tight ends, Damien Harris, the most underrated running back

in the league, and Minshew. And the magic is back. Just sign me up. I feel like that's 13 and three. I don't know what you have there. What you definitely have there is you don't have, I mean, you never will without Brady anymore, but like the consistency and the level of expectation and like, okay, today's going to be a great day. Sunday morning. Today's a great day because we've got this level of expectation. Every single Sunday that you wake up with Minshew as your quarterback and the talent that you've said. Sounds great.

It'll be an exciting Sunday. I'll be on the edge of my toes. It will be exciting, but there's a lot of variance. You never know what's going to, you have much less confidence. It's just like, what's going to happen today? I hope it's going to be great. It would be exciting, much less consistent, but certainly not does not mean that you would lose with that strategy. Coward was on his radio show. I was driving around

the other day saying that the Browns have a top three talent roster heading into the 2021 season. He thinks they're in the top three and that if they don't make the Super Bowl, it will basically be because Mayfield failed them. Do you think the Browns have a top three talent roster heading into next year? With the defense improving as they are and returns of various different players who missed last season, it is hard to find a starting roster that's substantially more talented because I like the O-line is one of the best in the NFL. You've got a support system for Baker as the run game when you need to utilize it. They've got some very talented running backs there. We already know what the wide receivers are. I love the way that Stefanski utilizes his tight ends.

And therefore, they have a higher threshold of not needing to get as much out of the wide receivers because they don't use as much 11 personnel and they've got talent at the tight end position. So it sounds like you're in a little bit then. I'm I'm I don't know that I'd go top three. And I don't know that I would say if it's not a Super Bowl because, you know, I'm, I don't know that I'd go top three. Um, and I don't know that I would say if it's not a Superbowl, cause you know, I think some of the things get said just to like set things up so that it could be, I told you so afterwards, but like, there's a lot of things that would have to go right for them to win a Superbowl.

And it's not just that Baker couldn't be the guy that delivered. There would be some other quarterbacks who may not be able to deliver a Superbowl. Only one of 32 teams is eventually going to win that thing. A lot of things went right for them last year. I mean, on one of the shows before the season, I talked about my only long shot prop for the season was Kevin Stefanski to win coach of the year. And that ended up hitting. I loved Kevin Stefanski last year. I still love him this year. He provides so much to this team. They did go seven and two in one score games. They did finish plus five in turnover margin last year. They were plus 12 in sack margin. They did lose Beckham. They did lose Beckham during the season. And I project that they will face an easier than

average schedule this season. One of the easier schedules in the NFL this year, if you consider that Pittsburgh really was sort of a facade with their 12 wins last year, right? We saw that that easier schedules in the NFL this year. If you consider that, hey, could Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh really was sort of a facade with their 12 wins last year, right? Like we saw that that team at the end of the year really wasn't that level. Baltimore's lost some pieces. Cincinnati is going to be better, but how much better? And then you look at the other teams that they're playing, they're playing the AFC West, which Denver could be good if they get a quarterback, but I still think that they're a little ways away from making that work. How long has Denver been the could be good team

now? Like five, is this year five of Denver could be good. It is. It's at least three. I know that for sure. This would be the fourth, but they need, they need consistency at the wide receiver position. They had way too many drops last year. And then obviously they need Locke. They need to get somebody other than Locke, in my opinion, in there. Me too. I completely agree. Yeah, I think they do. But I like Cleveland this year. I think they're over under, win total is nine and a half right now. I think that that's a team that should win double digit games. Well, can I give you a bet that I really liked?

Browns? Yeah. Browns to win the AFC North is plus 170 because Baltimore is still favored at plus 110. And there's a lot of Baltimore pedigree stuff with gambling every year.

It's just because of... They're basically like the Pats. People just have a ton of respect for them. They're always in contention. They're always between 10 and 12 wins. And I just think Cleveland's more talented than Baltimore. I really do. Now, whether that will translate to more wins,

I guess we'll see. But I was shocked that Baltimore was plus 110 and Cleveland was plus 170. I would have thought it would have been the other way around. Yeah, Baltimore needs help at the receiver position. They've also lost some talent at other levels of their deep of their roster their defenses is obviously been their strength and it still probably is their strength this year Lamar needs a guy to throw to Lamar needs to develop himself

a little bit more Lamar needs to get more consistent but I think that the Browns should be in the driver's seat in this division I don't disagree with you in terms of their talent level is the best in the AFC North, for sure. I'm going to give you a couple of long shot division bets. We should mention you've been known to place a bet from time to time. Oh, yeah. You futures, you've had a lot of success over the last few years. Now, 100%, a lot of success.

But one thing, I tend not to try to jump out in front of the market too early. Although I did dabble on one thing. I like to get all my ducks in a row, have a lot of confidence. And that's why, you know, a month, like in July, I'll start really thinking about it and high level of accuracy with those, but it's rare I'm going this early, but I do have one. We'll see if you hit on it. Well, I like value and I think you do too. So I'm looking at AFC's Dolphins plus 320. Browns plus 170, we mentioned. The Washington football team is plus 270 to win their division. That just seems way out of whack. I don't understand why they're the favorites.

And this goes back to the pedigree thing. Dallas just gets way too much respect every year with gambling stuff. Last year, I think they had the best odds for this team will be, will win the most games in the NFL. I think Dallas was like the number one team for that. Anyway, I have them. And then who's the other one? Oh, Atlanta plus 850 to win their division.

Seems really out of whack if they just take pits and get some guys back. And their coaching situation is going to be 100 times better. And they had terrible luck in close games. And meanwhile, we have Tampa, which is running it back, which we've seen mixed results with that over the years. We see a Saints team that's turned their team over to Jameis and kind of was built to go all in last year.

We see Carolina crossing their fingers with Sam, with Sam Darnold. So I was just like Atlanta plus eight 50. I thought it was pretty tasty. And then the other one was Arizona plus five 50, which I would not do because I have real concerns about Kyler Murray after watching him all year, but that maybe he's a better fantasy guy than a real guy. But those were my, the ones that jumped out. Did I hit the one that you liked? Yeah, you hit one that I liked. I thought the value was off on Washington. I really do. A lot of people think Ryan Fitzpatrick is completely overrated, but I like some of the very delicate. They didn't go too over the top in free agency, spend a ton of money. But I think there are concerns on the defensive side of the football. Can that be as consistent? Because we know defense tends to primarily be a factor of what type of offenses are you going to be playing?

But I do feel like Washington, they have a slightly difficult schedule this season, but I because they finished in first. But but I think that they have the talent there. And with Fitzpatrick, if he can minimize his mistakes, he definitely will provide how many passes. What was the percentage? If you remember just watching the games that the Washington quarterbacks were just throwing the ball to running backs. I mean, they really did not have a lot of talent at the receiver position at the tight end position. I think that they're going to get some players in this draft that are going

to continue to impact that team. Um, so of you mentioned, the only one I agree with you on the Atlanta, sorry, on the Arizona one, I don't really have much interest there. The Atlanta one is tough for me because you're right. They did do poorly in one score games and that should level off a little bit. But this was not a team that was like overly injured. In fact, they were the third most healthy team in the NFL last year. They were actually plus three in turnover margin overall last season. They had terrible luck in one score games. But to win that division, I do think that it's the prime opportunity to come in second place in that division for them. But to me, yes, Brady or somebody else critical could get injured. And yes, most teams who end up winning the Super Bowl have a lot of luck with health,

and they had a lot of luck with health last year as well. But that team looked a lot different than they did the first month of the season. And I think having the off season and then having the fresh start for this season plans to run it back, much better, hopefully, success for them. When Brady does need to dump the ball off to a running

back, he did that a ton in new England. He did that almost none at all in Tampa last year. And when he did, it was horribly inefficient. So getting a guy like Giovanni Bernard, it sounds like a small thing, but I think that that could benefit them as well. And in terms of not having those attempts be so disastrous, I just think that this team is really built out well to have another nice run and probably win the NFC South. Although I don't see there being value in betting it. I just don't know that I would want to bet Atlanta. The odds aren't terrible, right?

The percentage chance could end up hitting for them. But, um, and I do like Casey, you barely mentioned was every year there's, Oh, this coach is actually good. We've had a lot of troubles at the coaching position. Just bringing in this competent, inventive coaches worth four wins. We saw last year was Stefanski. Yeah. Now the, the, the only concern that I have, I love Arthur Smith. I can't get into details, but Arthur Smith is a really good coach. The one thing that scares me a little bit, though, is some of these guys that are around Derrick Henry.

We saw it with Matt LaFleur early on when he left. Like, they're just so used to calling plays a certain way with Derrick Henry there and feeding him at the high level. He's good for five yards every time. Right. And so, is he just going to shift back? I mean, Atlanta's one of the highest pass rates in the NFL.

When they got Todd Gurley, they tried to change and it was terrible. And so, they shifted back more towards the pass. Is he going to call his offense? Is he of the mindset, even though I think no coach in the NFL should be, that I have to set up play action by actually running the football? Because we know Arthur Smith liked to use a lot of motion and a lot of play action when he did pass the ball and he had a very high run rate. His run rate can't possibly be that high in Atlanta. So that's going to drop. But

will he say, I can't use too many play action dropbacks because I haven't established the ground game enough yet. And when he does try to establish the ground game, it's not going to have much success. I don't know exactly how he's going to navigate those waters, but he is no doubt his scheme and his philosophy in general is far superior to what they've had before. I just don't think he's as big of a slam dunk as Stefanski was with Baker. That's fair. You did a lot of stuff last year. You liked the Browns last year.

And your case was, you know this stat better than me, but you were basically like every year, what was it? 50 to one or worse. Somebody from that group ends up becoming a playoff contender, winning 10 games. What would you tell the audience? Cause I can't remember. I forget the stat too. Uh, it was something in that, that vein, like, wasn't it like 50 to one or worse? Somebody always hits. Yeah, there was, there was exactly, there was a threshold and they were one of the teams that was in there. All right.

So here are all the 50 to 1 teams or worse. Carolina, Vegas, Washington. Those are all 50 to 1. Chicago, Denver, 55 to 1.

Falcons, 60 to 1. Jets, 65. Bengals, 80. I'm sorry, Giants, 65. Bengals, 80. Jets, 80. Eagles, 85 to 1. Jags, Texans, Detroit are on the hundreds.

Anybody jump out to you as a possible value team? Yeah. The two, the two closest to me would be Washington and Denver. Uh, the two closest to me in that range. I think, you know, the giants, there's limitations at QB. Um, Cincinnati is not talented enough yet. The jets are on the right track. I like what Joe Douglas is doing there, but I think that they're still, I mean, you've got a

rookie quarterback. It's not this season. This is not going to be the season for them. The Eagles are interesting because if Hurts ends up working out for them, but they still need a lot of work with that roster. They've got a lot of weaponry finally this year in the draft that they're going to finally be able to utilize to address some of those needs. But their win total is extremely low for what we are used to seeing from the Eagles. And so much stuff went wrong for them last year.

But in terms of being a longer shot bet to actually win it all this year, I think that I'm still not quite on board with that. And the other teams that are further down the list, I also don't love Chicago. And we've already discussed Atlanta. So to me, Washington and Denver, if they get their quarterback, are two great long shot teams from a thought process that this team could make some noise in their division and probably would have a good shot of making the postseason. And from that point onward, you can easily hedge out of anything that you've laid, you know, so much to, to so little to

win so much on Denver's the most enticing with the odds because they could just jump from nine to four, nine to seven, wherever, and just all of a sudden have fields as their QB next year. Right. And I don't think either of us are lock believers. So, you know, if you're just thinking about how these odds might change after the draft, I think Denver has the biggest variance swing and maybe Atlanta a little bit too. But, uh, so too. So I do a lot of work on strength of schedule and I'm just getting into it for this season. And we'll be talking about it in future pods and break it down in a lot more detail. Denver played the fourth most difficult schedule of overall teams last year. I show them playing the number one easiest schedule of teams this

year with the opponents that they're going to be facing, including the Jets, the Jaguars, and the Detroit Lions are all out of division games that they get to play that nobody else in the AFC West gets to play. So that's going to give them an advantage right there. They also were the seventh most injured team in the NFL last year and were minus 16 in turnover margin. So if those things regress a little bit more to the mean, plus a much easier schedule, you give me a good quarterback,

a respectable quarterback who can at least operate the offense at a certain threshold, this is a team that certainly would exceed what their current odds are right now. I agree. Before we go, you trashed Edelman's Hall of Fame candidacy on Twitter.

It was just a drive-by shooting of it. Here's my case for Edelman, not as a Hall of Famer, but just how I thought the reception of when he retired should have been handled because it immediately turned into this weird Hall of Fame debate and I didn't really understand it.

He's an unbelievable rags-to-riches success story. I don't personally think he's a Hall of Famer just because it's so hard to get in the Hall of Fame. Stanley Morgan's not in there. I was texting you. Stanley Morgan basically averaged 20 yards a catch for his whole career during an era when, first of all, guys didn't do that.

Second of all, every quarterback he played with was average to below average to terrible and was really the dominant speed guy for a long stretch there. And if he's not it, I don't see how Edelman is it. But the case for Edelman is this, not even as a Hall of Famer, just in general. Rags to riches, his seventh round pick,

he doesn't play for like four or five years. He's a converted quarterback. And when Welker leaves, he comes in and he has one of the best big game playoff stretches of any receiver skill position guy ever. You could make a case that he's the second best playoff receiver of all time. You really could. His five post seasons, 2014 to 17, and then 2019 are just unassailably, unbelievably great. And his performance in big games and some of the plays he made the Seattle super bowl when they're down 10, it seems like he got concussed at midfield held on. It made him stronger. Um,

the Baltimore game when that, that they needed to just beat Seattle, throws a touchdown. He's all over the place. The Atlanta game makes the famous catch. The Rams game, I think he had like 10, 11 catches. This dude's one of the best big game athletes in the history of Boston sports. And that's how I'm going to remember him. And to me, it doesn't really matter that he makes the Hall of Fame or not because it's an unbelievable Cinderella story.

And I can't believe that people miss that piece of it. What other seventh round converted quarterback was going to have the career that he had where now you look at it and it's like playoff stats, it's rice. And then it's like him and Michael Irvin and John Stallworth. And like, he's there with all those dudes. And I think to me, that's the case. Well, I don't think to me, it's not the case. What I say is that is an unbelievable story. And I think he should forever be proud of it. I think the Patriots fans should forever be able to think back to what he was able to do for that team and how paramount and instrumental he was in winning those Super Bowls. And there's no doubt about it. He played outstanding for

several years. The one thing that I can say is that he plays with the best quarterback of all time on a pass heavy offense. And when you put those two things together, of course, the slot guy is going to have massive upside. I mean, how many times is Brady coming to line of scrimmage and the defense is completely confused or the defense might be expecting run and he, or he motions Edelman around gets the matchups he wants. I mean, this is Brady at the peak performance of his career, being able to go after the guy. Now I totally agree with you that his retirement day should have been just what a great story this was. I can't believe, I mean, I went back actually and watched part of his

documentary. I think it was on Showtime and watched some of that story of how he came back to be able to play in the Super Bowl. It was basically, you know, the story of that. And they talked about how much he overcame and how close he was with his father and how his father was helping him along the way. And it was really great family story. And those are the things, I don't think Edelman, when he sat on that chair at Foxborough, was thinking like, man, I hope people are talking about me going to the Hall of Fame. I think he was just really happy with his career. He probably wished he could have played longer, but was satisfied with what he was able to do. I felt like that's how we should have remembered him, but instantly it turned into

people suggesting, is this guy a hall of fame player for what he did? It came out of Boston and you know, the Boston's not going to be rational about it, but the reality is the football hall of fame is incredibly picky. Basketball is the other way. Basketball is not picky enough. The football hall of fame is ridiculously, ludicrously picky and he's not going to make it. And it's stupid to even argue it. He, he's not getting in. It's not happening. I wish that, I wish we weren't even talking about the hall of fame in the NFL, because I totally agree with you. Not only is it picky, like the standards seem very bizarre. The guys that should have been first ballot hall of famers

don't get in for a while. They have to like, sort of like apologize for things and get into better. Like, I just don't get that hall of fame at all. It seems like the worst room too, when they got, they all go in and they're all arguing. and it's like these 40 dudes with this incredible power basically but like to me it was invalidated when ray guy didn't make it and i don't even know if he's in or not but there were ray guy when i was growing up was so much better at punting than anyone else was at anything special teams wise he was like like honestly a weapon and he was so far ahead of whatever that position was at the time. Now, now I think there's probably a better guy, but it's like, if he's not going to make it, what, what's the point of hall of fame? That guy's the best punter I've ever seen in my

life. He was 25% better than everybody else. So I don't know what the purpose of it is. I was surprised when Aikman made it so quickly when it was like Aikman basically had an eight year career, but was in a lot of playoff games because he was on a monster team. And it's like, all right. So the criteria there is, is basically playoff performance, but with other guys, if they don't have the playoff performance, but it wasn't their fault, we're going to penalize them. And I just don't get it. I don't know what the hall of fame is. Yeah. I'm, I think we're all better off for just kind of letting them decide it. But the problem, what frustrates me a little bit is it matters a lot for those players, right? The guys that felt like they should get in.

Some of these guys are getting older and older and, you know, on their deathbed, like it's just, it's just a little bit extreme, like because those guys care about it because they played the game and, and felt like they matter to them. That's why I think it matters a little bit to me. But aside from that, you know, I really think based upon the standards and everything, it's, it's a little bit screwed. Well, you made the point about Heinz Ward and I was like, wow, Heinz Ward isn't in. I was surprised that, that, that he wasn't in, but I was like, I guess he shouldn't be in. Heinz Ward hasn't even, Heinz Ward has, I mean, the stats are up there on Twitter. I'm not going to go through them,

but Heinz Ward has not even made the final ballot for voting to get into the hall of fame for five straight years. He has been like the, the semifinals elite eight, whatever they call it. Then he moves up to semis and he never gets to like the last ballot, which still has a ton of names on it. Like the last one still has a ton of names on it. Like the last one still has a lot of guys on it. He's not on that and he hasn't been for the last five years. So it's just a really high, really, really high standard. I did want to leave you with a draft prop.

I've got another one or two. Good farewell. Let's do it. I'll float your way closer to the draft because I want to make sure we can get down everything that we can on these first. But one that I like that we've already dabbled on is over six and a half offensive linemen in the first round. It's plus 110.

I think that just looking at some of the mocks and listening to some of my guys that we are going to be seeing more offensive players than defensive players taken. And yes, I think there's going to be their fair share of quarterbacks going, but we saw the super bowl this past year. And what did we see in that super bowl? We saw a team with the Kansas city chiefs who lost offensive lineman to injury and could not protect the best quarterback in the game right now, the most talented guy who can make all the throws. They couldn't protect him and it cost them potentially the Super Bowl. Whereas Tom Brady had some of the best protection. They went up,

they got worse, some of the best protection in the NFL and was able to deliver. There are a lot of teams. The one thing you have to look at is the bottom five, bottom seven teams in the, in the first round, look at those teams and who they are and think, what could this team use? You know, are one of those teams really going to go for a running back or one of those teams, but, or could they actually go for another one offensive lineman or two? And that's what I think a couple of those teams would do to push you over to at least seven offensive linemen. So that's what I like. But like I said, I'll float another couple to you

close to the draft and you can share them with the listeners if you want. Yeah, it does seem like that makes sense to me that we've seen the draft shift with priorities over the last few years. We're like running backs now. Unless you're superhuman, you're just not going in the top 15.

That's never happening. Quarterbacks, bigger priority than ever. Offensive linemen, bigger priority than ever. Brandon Bean for the Buffalo Bills, really smart general manager of a really smart organization, came out and said, we need to run the ball better next year. But then he also followed it up by saying, we need to be better at run blocking. That's how we're going to run the ball better next year. But then he also followed it up by saying, we need to be better at run blocking. That's how we're going to run the ball better. So, you know, in years past, some guy like Brandon B might, and who knows what they're going to do. He might've gone out

and just drafted a running back because quote unquote, we need to run the ball better. But the reality is if you get better at run blocking, you will be able to run the ball better. And so like, that's a team who could use a running back, but I think that they are definitely more likely to draft an offensive lineman there and, and to improve their overall run game. Also higher percentage of success and of, with the blue chip guys versus some of those other positions. It's pretty, it's pretty hard to like whiff on a first round lineman. You can do it, but- And there's actually, you can do it. And there's actually a great exercise

where we don't have to debate it. We can know for certain. And that is whether or not a team gives the 50-year option or extends a first round draft pick, because now that was the rule from the prior CBA. And I've been tracking it. And I go through every single year.

I update the list. I tweeted out, we'll probably do a podcast on it where I can come in and talk about which teams are the best at hitting their first round picks, because we can look at the percentages of guys that they extend or give an extra a year in the fifth year option to, and offensive linemen have the highest hit rate. They have the highest hit rate of getting extended of having extra, you know, a fifth year option or getting their extension. So teams get, not all of them will hit, right. But they will hit at a higher rate than running backs.

That is for certain. All right. Warren sharp. He'll be, uh, he'll be back doing a lot of stuff with us this fall. I know you miss house. I know you just probably text house just to check in. You guys said something really special there on Fridays, but I don't know what house is doing. Our house has lost his mind. He was in Mexico for the Masters.

He's unraveled. I love hearing from you. I will definitely grab that draft prop. Good to see you. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, Bill. All right. That's it for our two-part podcast. Thanks to see you. Thanks for coming on. Thanks, Bill. All right, that's it for our two-part podcast. Thanks to Jackie Mack.

Thanks to Warren Sharpe. Don't forget to check out the rewatchables. We did Manhunter. And I hope you have a good rest of the week. I hope the Red Sox keep winning. I hope the Yankees keep losing. I hope the Red Sox keep winning. I hope the Yankees continue to lose.

And I will see you on Sunday night. Me and Marcelo will be back. I'm sure there'll be plenty to talk about. Enjoy the rest of the week. I don't have feelings within On the wayside I'm a person never lost I don't have feelings within