The Bill Simmons Podcast - Paul George’s MVP Run, the Kooky West, Odell to L.A., and Baker vs. Belichick With Jonathan Tjarks and Peter Schrager

Episode Date: November 12, 2021

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Jonathan Tjarks to discuss Paul George and the Clippers, Coach of the Year candidate Ty Lue, the Mavericks’ continued struggles, the impressive Bulls, best NBA rookies, and more (3:30). Then Bill talks with NFL Network’s Peter Schrager about WR Odell Beckham Jr. signing with the Rams and upcoming “kitchen-sink games” for the 49ers, Raiders, Chiefs, and Vikings, before making their Million-Dollar Picks for NFL Week 10 (49:32). Host: Bill Simmons Guests: Jonathan Tjarks and Peter Schrager Producer: Kyle Crichton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm Derek Thompson, longtime writer with The Atlantic magazine on tech, culture, and politics. There is a lot of noise out there, and my goal is to cut through the headlines, loud tweets, and hot takes in my new podcast, Plain English. I'll talk to some of the smartest people I know to give you clear viewpoints and memorable takeaways. Plain English starts November 16th. Listen for free on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode is brought to you by my old friend, Miller Lite.

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Network, where if you're not listening to the Prestige TV podcast, you are missing out, my friends. Me and Chris Ryan and Ryan Rossello, we went on there Wednesday night. We broke down the season premiere, two hours, 20 minutes of Yellowstone. It was really two episodes. What a show. I don't know if it's technically a prestige show, but for me it is. It feels prestigious. It's certainly the most watched cable show that we have. It had like Game of Thrones numbers for that first episode. But we talked about a lot of the plots on that thing. You'll enjoy it if you like that show. And I think going forward every week, Chris and Ryan are going to break it down, maybe with a couple of special guests like myself. Natalie Rubin watches that show.

So stay tuned on that. We got Succession going on there twice a week as well. Doing some Curb, doing some Dexter. Dexter was really good. The comeback Dexter episode, I was not expecting to enjoy it as much as I did. So there's a lot of good stuff coming too. Check it out, the Prestige TV pod.

Don't forget about Plain English with Derek Thompson. Mentioned it. You might've heard the trailer at the top. He's been on this podcast many times. One of the smartest guests we've ever had in this pod. Made sense for him to finally host his own thing. He's going to have a rotating cast of regulars and we're hoping that's going to be one of the smartest podcasts on the internets. So check that one out. Don't forget about the Ringard Gambling Show as well, where you can hear Warren Sharpe and Joe House and Chris Vernon and Ben Solak. He's going to be with House there on Friday if you want some gambling stuff.

We're going to be doing stuff later here with Peter Schrager, Million Dollar Picks, as always. Coming up first, our guy Jonathan Charks talking Paul George and best rookies and what's going on in the Western Conference and a whole lot more. This is a really good podcast. You know who we should bring in? You know, I'm thinking about music lately because we're only a week away from the Music Box series. HBO, Thursday, November 18th, Patriots Falcons going head to head with my Music Box series. That's fine because guess what? You can just watch it on HBO Max. You don't have to watch it right away on HBO at eight o'clock, but if you really want to, that'd be great because we're running Jagged, the first film about Alanis Morissette that we did. First of five straight Thursdays,

the Music Box series. I spent, I don't know, three and a half years of my life on this. You might as well just, it's seven hours of your life. You could watch. They're all excellent. Really, really proud of this series. You might've seen the Woodstock 99 one that we did, that we ran this summer as a sneak preview. Five more coming. Atlantis is first.

Next Thursday, we are now a week away. And if you don't get to see it live on HBO, it's going to be right on HBO Max. So there you go. Speaking of great music, Projeb! All right, taping this. It's a little past noon Pacific time on Thursday, so before the games tonight.

Jonathan Charks is here from The Ringer. We're going to talk a bunch of stuff. We're going to start with Paul George. I think we have both noticed the Paul George thing that's happening this year. It's only 10 games, but if you think in 2018 when he made first-team All-N NBA, he was 28-8-4. 44%, 39%, 86% were the percentages.

He's basically there this year with the Clippers, 27-8-5. Relatively close percentages. What's interesting is this is the top six playoff team, Charks. Here are their next four best players. This might be debatable.

This is just what I wrote down. Reggie Jackson is clearly their number two. But Toome might have the case for number three because of the two-way stuff. And then fourth place is a tie between Luke Kennard and Terrence Mann, I would say. And somehow Paul George has lifted these guys and has gone to a level that

we saw in the playoffs last year that we've seen from him in the past. To me, he's one of the six best guys in the league right now, plus LeBron when LeBron comes back. What are you watching? What are you seeing? I think it's funny you mentioned, we were talking about this too. It all goes back to, it's easy to forget sometimes how hard it is to be the number two on a team, right? It takes a lot of sacrifice. When Paul George is playing with Kawhi, he cannot be the Paul George we're seeing now. He's off the ball a lot more. He's playing off someone else. It's just not his team. When it's your team, it's just you get into your stuff a little easier.

Right? Like Paul George right now, he can get into his whole bag. He can get to the post-ups, pick and rolls, spot-ups, pull-ups. When Kawhi's out there, Kawhi's the man. He's playing off Kawhi a lot of the game. And maybe he only gets like, you know, 12 minutes when Kawhi's out. And now it's my turn to run the team. Hard to get into a rhythm.

Whereas now, if Paul George is a slow start to the game, he knows, okay, I'll still get like 12 more shots. Like I have time to get back to what I do. And now I think, and you saw last year in the playoffs, as soon as Kawhi went off, went down, all of a sudden Paul George went back up. And it's just a good reminder of how much role impacts even the best players.

Yeah, it's funny And it's just a good reminder of how much role impacts even the best players. Yeah, it's funny because it ties into a situation that's happened with the Celtics right now with Tatum and Brown, where for the first time, it's really been the whole season, the Celtic fans are kind of looking at each other going, does this make sense? Do these two guys bring the best out of each other? Should we trade one of them? And it's not like we have to trade one of them, but it's a conversation. And it's not the question of do these two guys make sense together? To me, it's what you just laid out. Does the situation make sense really for Jalen Brown?

Is he overqualified to be in that Robin spot? And this is what we've seen Paul George kind of vacillate where we saw in Indiana, he was carrying them. Didn't know if he had the personality to be anything more than the best guy on like a 45 win team. Goes to OKC, same thing, not a ton of playoff success, but we kind of pigeonholed him as he's a little overqualified to be the second banana, but not quite good enough to be the main guy. I thought in the playoffs last year, he shed that at least for me. And the only reason that they lost to the Sun sons, I think was just, they were so worn down. They, to, to do what they did, they were limited roster anyway. Um,

I think he just wore down a little and they didn't have the horses, but I look big picture. He's doing stuff as the focal point of an offense. And as somebody who's creating and picking his spots and really does make other guys better. And this is like, this is what I want from Tatum, right? As selfishly, this is where I want Tatum to get to where two, three years from now, he's somebody that can feel out of game, pick his spots, take good shots, kind of no one to ease back and take over and things like that. Paul George is there. And to me, he's clearly a first team

all NBA guy through 10 games. Yeah. That's what we were talking about the other day is because there's the versatility of his game. It's that he could impact the game in so many ways. And then you go back to the fact that, oh yeah, he's six foot eight. And then there's so many games where like against the Grizzlies or the Blazers, they're putting six, three guys on them. It's like, oh yeah, I can just score over those guys at will. And then I can make the double team off the pass, pass the double team, I mean. And yeah, he's a very versatile game.

And I think the Celtics thing is a great, and here's the difference, right? When Paul George goes to the Clippers, he has already been the man somewhere else. He's like, I've lived that life. I've had my chance as the guy. And as much fun as it is, I can accept, I can look at the fact

that Kawhi Leonard is a two-time finals MVP. Okay, like, I love myself. I can respect the reality that Kawhi's better than me. Whereas I don't think Jalen Brown is like, oh my god, Jason Tatum is the best player ever. I've got to get behind him. Jalen Brown's a young guy who's coming

up himself. He's like, I've made an all-star team. We won the East Coast Finals together three years ago. We're the same guy. I'm not necessarily going to stand behind you because I got to see who I can be as my own personal player. And I don't think it's like him being selfish, really. It's just kind of, he's a young guy. If he was like 28, maybe it'd be different. He's 23. Right. And Paul George, when he was 23, Jalen Brown's age now, that was 2014,

the Pacers. That was when the second year when they went toe-to-toe with LeBron and Wade and those guys and really had established himself

as the next up-and-coming two-way forward after LeBron and Durant. I think his defense isn't where it was seven years ago. I don't think there's any question. The big appeal with him seven, eight years ago was the athleticism and the two-way stuff,

which is a lot like Jalen. And when Jalen got thrown in different stuff, and I remember there was the year Kawhi was being shopped and Toronto ended up getting him. And it was a big debate in Boston about why wouldn't they give up Jalen Brown for Kawhi? And I was against it. And I was on this podcast saying,

if you look at him versus Paul George, the career arc is very similar. Like the stuff Jalen's been able to do in his first two seasons versus Paul George. The difference is Paul George eventually, once Granger was officially done, which was pretty fast, the team had to run through him and he kind of learned and he got the reps. And that's what

Jalen hasn't gotten. But it's also why I'm so afraid to even think about trading them and that why I don't want them to trade them. Because I do feel like what you laid out at the top, we're seeing kind of 80 to 85% of what Jalen can do. And with Paul George last year as the Clippers, right, it was 80 to 85%. Right now we're seeing the 100% and it stands out. He's got the swagger. I also feel this happens in hoops sometimes. He had a pivotal moment in the playoffs last year where it's weird to say this, but it feels like his career could have gone either way. You know what I mean? Where it was like he he sucked in the bubble. It became a whole thing. And that was threatening to kind of become who he was, right? I remember

this happened to Chris Weber to some degree in the 0-2, 0-3, 0-4 range where he was one of the best players in the league. But in the playoffs, there was something missing, especially in the big moments. And he had a couple of fork in the road moments and he just, he was who he was. He wasn't like at that KG Duncan level. He's right below. For George, when Kawhi went out, it seemed like this moment where it was either going to, he was going to crater or he was going to rise up. I felt like he rose up. I thought he was amazing, you know, and he just kind of ran out of gas. But you know, don't you feel like sometimes there's like a career gut check moment with some of these guys? Well, I mean, I think too, it's the chances aren't always there forever, right? You only

get so many chances at this thing when you're the guy on a team around you and a chance to win. And either you make the best of them or you don't. And for as good as Paul George is, if Kawhi comes back in four months and is healthy, guess what? Paul George is going to have to go back to that spot up role. We're not talking about first team all NBA anymore. And that's just the reality of a zero sum thing. Don't you think he'll, if Kawhi does come back, they'll ease him into it. And in a weird way, he'll become the one B and he'll be playing like 25 minutes a game and they'll be kind of easing him in and, you know, kind of dabbing with him. Would this be the 95 bulls where Scotty gets the one year and Jordan's coming back for the comeback,

right? That'd be the one year where that's kind of like that, I suppose. Yeah. Yeah. I think you're right. Paul George's career is way more interesting than I think I realized. I deep dove him last night and today. First of all, he's made one first team all NBA and five third teams. I tried to think who are the best 21st century small forwards. So the cutoff would be 2000 on. And you make the list and it's like, obviously LeBron, then Durant, then Kawhi. That has to be the top three.

Pierce versus McGrady is a debate for four. To me, it's like a no brainer. It's Pierce. He was way more durable. He was a better two way player. He like a no-brainer. It's Pierce. He was way more durable. He was a better two-way player. He had a winning pedigree. You would say that, though. Right. Other people are like,

oh my God, TMAC. But to me, it's Pierce. And Pierce also came through on big stages. He out-dueled LeBron in a game seven. Like, he had real moments, you know.

I'd have McGrady sixth. And then George is clearly seventh. And Sean Marion is eighth. And then it drops off. But when you think of it in that context, we're 21 years into the century. And Paul George is one of the seven best small forwards we've had this century. I don't know if people would think that. Yeah. So much of it is perception. He played on a small market they were good early as he got better the team tanked around him he went to okc right so much of that paul george is at that level right below the truly historically great players right kawaii you mean like the braun lebron kawaii

durant those guys are going to be historically great regardless it doesn't even matter paul george is right below that where it's all about the situation he's put in. Right. But on the other hand, he made back-to-back Eastern Conference finals. Last year, he made the Western Conference finals after they lost their best guy with a team that was really built around those two guys and then a bunch of minimum guys and

cross-your-finger guys. So, three Western finals. That's better than anything TM-mac ever did for sure and i mean talking about the series last year like for as great as donathan mitchell is you start looking at skills oh paul george is seven inches taller he's a better distributor he's a little more steady steady in terms of running the team and he's just a better player and donovan is a great player because there's just very very few guys who can do as many things as what Paul George can do. And that's what I always try to come back to is skill sets, ultimately.

Yeah. Situations come and go. It's like, okay, how many different things can this guy do and at what level? And when you start stacking skills, there's just not very many guys. It's funny when you're doing a lot of draft stuff, you often to young wings and the guy they always bring up is paul george i remember talking to mikhail mikhail bridges when he came out a friend of mine did a piece on him he's like who do you see yourself like the guy was like i want to be like paul george and i did a piece a couple years ago on josh richardson and i'm asking him about who does he kind of want to be

like and he's like yeah i want to be paul George. And it made sense to me because I was like, okay, no one's saying to themselves, well, I can be Kevin Durant. Like I'm a seven foot freak who just, you know, no one's saying I can be LeBron James. No one's saying even Kawhi, the strongest man alive, basically. These guys are like, but Paul George is like the best version of a good player. You know what I mean? So like even every good player can say, maybe I can become him one day. That's like an actual goal for me.

Like Mikael Bridges could say, I want to be Sean Marion. I was watching the 2007 Suns on ESPN Classic and that's who I should be on a really good playoff team. I said George was 76. So the list again, LeBron, Durant, Kawhi,

Pierce, McGrady, Paul George, Marion. And then it drops. Then you go into like Peja, Jamal Mashburn, stuff like that. In terms of current players, the guy, I think it's PG and Jimmy Butler. Those are the kind of guys in that same level. Very different kinds of players. They're both right below the superstar elites.

I think those two guys are kind of the comparison point. I had Butler at eighth. He needs to bank two more years. He weirdly doesn't have the resume yet, other than like that one finals thing. And he had a couple of fun playoff series. The other thing with Paul George,

I was trying to think of another player kind of after the Chris Paul LeBron generation, the rant generation, who's had more what ifs, right? Because like he fucking broke his leg. That was basically an 18 month injury and he broke his leg at the worst possible point like right as he's about to hit his prime and has this injury that is no different than the Gordon Hayward injury and stuff like that so comes back from that it felt

like he wasn't ever going to be quite the same and then he was all of a sudden he was kind of better than he ever was so he has that early on in the Neander thing. What if Danny Granger never gets hurt is a great, what if, because Danny Granger was the best guy in that team. Like he averaged 26 games in a season and they were supposed to have this kind of double barreled Kawhi Paul George kind of thing. And he's just, his knees gave out and that was it. And you look at like 2013, 14, I feel like they could have stolen 14 with a healthy Granger because that heat team was dying to lose to somebody. And, but Gr like they could have stolen 14 with a healthy Granger because that Heat team was dying to lose to somebody. But Granger didn't have them. You have this Celtics summer 2017 trade where the Celtics think they're getting them. They really do. That wasn't like bullshit. They

thought they were getting them. And then all of a sudden he's going to OKC for what turned out to be an awesome trade. Oladipo and Sabonis. At the time, everybody was like, what? You know, and I was one of them. I was like, what? Why didn't they take our picks that might never turn into great players? And they ended up getting two really good guys. But if they go to the Celtics, if he goes to the Celtics,

Kyrie never happens. You have Paul George, you have Hayward, you have Horford, Jaylen, like that's a whole slide into it. I've got a what if for you too.ward, you have Horford, Jalen. That's a whole slide into it. I've got a what if for you two. Also, what if the Lakers trade Ingram for him in that summer? He gets to LA first. Oh, that's a good one.

You're right. He plants his flag there. And I think really for Paul George, it seems silly to say, but if he was playing with LeBron, I think him and LeBron have more complementary skill sets than him and Kawhi. I think they'd be even better together. Well, that leads to my next what if. Because the reason they didn't trade Brandon Ingram for him was because I think they thought they were getting him down the road. Because there was all these smoke signals being sent.

Why do we have to trade Brandon Ingram for him? We'll keep him. We'll get Paul George later. And then that summer when it seemed like Paul George was going to sign with them, when he spent the one year in OKC. Oh, yeah, the party in OKC. Yeah, unfinished business. Summer of 2018.

I will go to my grave thinking something fishy happened with that. I think the Lakers thought they were getting him and LeBron. And something weird happened. I don't know if there was like a tampering thing or something. It just never added up to me. He ends up re-signing out of nowhere. And then that becomes a what if, because he could have gone LeBron.

They still would have had enough to trade for Anthony Davis. It could have been LeBron and Anthony Davis. It was that thing. Remember that thing Jason did for us where he was making fun of their decision? And he's like, I don't know. And that has always been the knock on him. It's like, whoever's in the room last with Paul George

can convince him. Right, can convince him, whatever. So like, Russ kind of convinced him to stay and that's the other part

of it too, I guess, hard to get into is like, I don't know. Well, there's three more what ifs. What if Kawhi just stays

in Toronto? Totally conceivable that could have happened, right? They win the title and if he stays there, so then, Paul George just stays

in OKC with Westbrook. Now Westbrook for Chris Paul never happens. Now there's like seven other what-ifs coming off that. You have the what if Kawhi doesn't get hurt last summer because I think they make the finals. I think they would have beaten the Suns with Kawhi. I really do. I think that was a bad matchup for the Suns. And then the last one is a what if that's in motion right now. What if Kawhi can come back in time this season? Because the West is open. The Warriors, I think, are the safest pick. Utah is the best regular season team. I don't think anyone trusts them in the playoffs. Phoenix seems like they're in motion. And then the Lakers are the wildcard team. But it is open.

If Kawhi comes back in time, I think that's a what if in motion. Yeah. I'm actually working on a Clippers piece. I think there's two other things that really makes me kind of sneakily confident in them. Number one, if the West is fairly even, and if these playoff series are super tight, and it becomes coaches playing chess, I'll take Ty Lue over any coach in the league in terms of playing chess. So here's a funny story with that. So the other day, the Clippers played the Wolves coaches playing chess. I'll take Ty Lue over any coach in the league in terms of playing chess. So here's a funny story with that. So the other day, the Clippers played the Wolves. The Wolves had been like kind of going, they're like three and one. They beat the Bucks. Everyone's really excited about the Wolves for like whatever. They play the Clippers twice. Ty Lue says,

okay, I see you're playing Cat and Josh Okoji together. What I'm going to do is I'm sticking my center on Josh Okoji because he can't score and I'm double teaming Cat everywhere. He does that. The Wolves lose both games. I think they basically haven't won a game since because the rest of the league was like, oh, that's a good idea.

What Ty Lue just did, like the Wolves are done. Ty Lue wrote a book, the book's out and the Wolves are done. That's the kind of coach Ty Lue is. That man, he might make a mistake in a playoff series, but he will correct it fast.

And he's got some versatile pieces. And I think the second smart thing the Clippers have done, which kind of hides their value. So they traded for Eric Bledsoe, who obviously has a ton of warts. I mean, we don't want to sit here and talk about that. One thing he is, he is better when he's in a small ball situation

where he's the one non-shooter, right? Bledsoe can kind of be like this weird Bruce Brown kind of player, point center, crazy athletic, four shooters around him. So the Clippers know we have this kind of wild card, but during the regular season, we're going to play Zubac, play Hardenstein. And if you look at the on-off numbers- I like Hardenstein, by the way. He's been pretty good. Bledsoe plays with those guys. They're not very good because it's two non-shooters. But we know in a playoff series, we're going to bench them. If we bench them against the Jazz, all of a sudden, Bledsoe becomes valuable in a five-out situation.

So I think that those two pieces for me are why I'm like, the Clippers have a shot at this, even if Kawhi isn't himself when he comes back. Interesting Ty Lue point. He definitely cemented that to some degree last year. I mean, his 2016 finals performance was just tremendous. You know, that became a battle of wills. He had the right guys out there. I really like watching some of the games from that series

because game four from 2016, I think, is a fascinating one because the Warriors kind of solve and break the Cavs and it's over. And then they don't realize they're going to lose Draymond for game five yet, but the series is done. They've solved them. And then the will of that Cavs team to come back. And then you watch that last game,

which is basically a rock fight and a dick measuring contest. And Ty just had the right guys out there in a matter. And I thought last rock fight and a dick measuring contest. And Ty just had the right guys out there in a matter. And I thought last year he did a great job too. That Utah comeback, which I went to, I went to both of the last two home games. I thought he was amazing in those games because they were overmatched. That should

not have been, you know, Mitchell was a little banged up, but that Utah should have gotten out of that series. It's kind of nuts that they didn't win that series. It's why I can't take them seriously this year. It's because Ty was like, oh, we can go small against them. We'll pull Gilbert out of the paint. And then there's no other defensive players. And while Terrence man scored 40, even in that first round series against the Mavs and like Ty Lue. So I would say in that series against the Mavs, he probably stayed big a little too long, but when he had to make the move,

he made the move. And it's like crazy. You look at the minutes from game one against the Mavs, like game five, Tyloo basically changed his entire team. Like the rotation got completely flipped super, super fast. And it's like,

okay, this isn't working. I'm onto the next thing. I'm not wasting around. And that, that's like, man, there's very few coaches where you're like,

not only, because the other part of it too, when you make adjustments, right? These sample sizes are so small. You almost throw the numbers out the window because you're talking about like eight minute samples. It's purely your instincts and your conviction on what's right. And you just kind of go with it. And he seems to write more often than not. It's a team that probably has a trade to make if they need to do it too, right? They have Bledsoe at 18 million. They have Marcus Morris at 15.6. Canards at 13.3.

They have the Ibaka expiring at 9.7. So they can package stuff together and swing it if there becomes a guy available. I want to talk about coaches, but let's take a quick break. This episode is brought to you by Movember. The mustache is back with a vengeance. Look at Travis Kelsey.

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now. Just search Movember. You mentioned Ty Liu before. It's funny. I'd been thinking about him this week because I think he's a coach of the year candidate. I know it's only 10 games. It's stupid to be like, this guy's MVP. This guy's coach of the year. I've been really impressed by him. I've been really impressed by Wes Onseld on the Wizards because it's not just that that team is, I think, better than a lot of us thought they were going to be, but they've added so many new pieces. And I don't think people realize how hard it is to just throw all these dudes together and then have it seem coherent. The stuff they're doing defensively, I think, has been really smart. Their out-of-bounds plays have been good. I think

he's been probably my favorite new coach. And then you have, obviously, Spolster. I think Kerr's done a great job in Golden State with just the movement they have and their ability now to win if Steph doesn't even play well. Any other coaches stand out to you? Because we always rip on coaches here. I thought we'd have two nice minutes about coaches.

I have to look at a list. I think what I love about a coach, like with Kerr, Kerr. Kerr's example, he's found a role for Gary Payton too. Where the same role, the Eric Bledsoe role we're talking about, where we're going to have this super athletic guy in a small ball situation where his lack of a jumper becomes less of an issue. And what I look for in coaches is like, can you find roles for players that make sense to fit their games?

And I think that's like the fundamental part of coaching. A lot of the other stuff, you can get assistance, run up the right schemes, like run, you know, however you want to do it. But it's identifying roles for players. And being in Dallas for so long, Rick Carlisle, we can talk chapter and verse about his off, but he handles people. One thing he was always really good at was defining roles for limited players that made them better than who they are. And that to me is the number one hallmark of a great coach.

Stevens was great. I follow this Instagram account that's called, I think like Boston Sports Throwback. And they put all these fun clips up from the past, half of which I don't forget. I didn't even remember because I'm old. But they ran a clip from Stevens' first... Remember that first year

when it was like Evan Turner, Kelly Olenek, Jordan Crawford? Was that the Isaiah Thomas team? It was before Isaiah Thomas showed up. Okay. It was like the island

of misfit toys. And it was all these guys who people had kind of liked but couldn't find a home. And then Stevens just kind of figured out like, oh, use Evan Turner this way. And, oh, Jordan Crawford's this. And he just kind of solved five guys' careers, use Evan Turner this way. And oh, Jordan Crawford's this.

And he just kind of solved five guys' careers. He made Evan Turner a lot of money, that's for sure. Yeah, he really did. But you're right. That's a good point about coaches that, like Hartenstein. Ty Lue says something in Hartenstein. He's like, all right, this is what you are.

The best players right now list. I talked about this a little with Jackie. I think right now it's Giannis, KD, Jokic, and Curry. And then Luka's kind of knocking at the door. But his team is so weird that I don't even know how to judge Luka. You're right there. He's had a tough start. I mean, I would say Luka's definitely in the I play my way into shape school.

It's a bummer. No, honestly, it's a bummer. He's playing his way into shape. And it doesn't always look great, I'll tell you that. And the team itself is really kind of, oh gosh, talking about the Mavs, they're still figuring out who they are. And I think right now, like Dallas,

we talked about in the pod a few months ago, and they were trying, I was right now, like Dallas, we talked about in the pod a few months ago, and they're trying, I was holding optimistic, okay, P got a whole off season to be healthy, etc, etc. And then he comes in the year and gets lower back tightness almost immediately. And Dallas right now is trapped in a situation where they don't think they can play KP at the five full time and keep him healthy, which is a fair thought. The problem is if you're playing KP at the four, who is your five? And their other big men are very, very limited, especially because Maxi Kleber is out.

So now it's like you're playing KP and Dwight Powell or it's like Willie Cauley Stein or Boban. And it's like these lineups with these two relatively unskilled bigs who don't move very well, very hard to win, but you're stuck with these lineups because KP can't play the five full time. And it's just kind of depressing. It's just,

I mean, the KP thing is, oh God, I don't even know anymore. Yeah, it feels like it's hitting the last couple laps. But who would they trade him for? Trade with him at some point we were like i was talking some of the mavs writers like john wall like who would he trade kp for oh my god john wall houston basically they they they basically have announced we're not even going to play him and we're just going to spend 80 million dollars on this guy for one draft pick that we got for trading with Westbrook.

That's probably KP's trade value right now, unfortunately. So this brings us to the West, because I feel the same way. The Mavs, I think the league is more talented. I was talking to somebody about that today, where it's just like, it's fucking loaded. You look at Marvin Bagley in Sacramento, who's not playing and he's unhappy,

and they clearly have to trade him. In the old days, there were always like four or five teams that would be like, ah, fuck it. We'll take a, we'll roll the dice with Marvin. Sounds great. Bring them in. This year, everybody's kind of got guys, you know, nobody has that 20 minutes. The only team that I think would have the 20 minutes for him is OKC, but they're just hell bent on proving that Poku is in a catastrophe, even though there's not a lot of evidence. He's just bad, but okay. So he is a team that maybe could roll the dice to the mother and that we

have so much talent that people don't even have the 20, 25 minutes to roll the dice with somebody like that. Maybe new Orleans could do it. I don't know, but yeah, I mean, there's three or four tanking teams and everything. That's pretty competitive.

Yeah. So when I think about that and or four tanking teams, and other than that, it's pretty competitive. Yeah. So when I think about that and the Porzingis piece, and should Dallas start taking flyers on guys? Are they at that stage where you're just a wink and a prayer? It can't be worse than what we have now? Because I look at the West. Golden State, Utah, and Phoenix are the top three. Clips, Nuggets, L State, Utah, and Phoenix are top three. Clips,

Nuggets, Lakers, in some order, next three. And the Lakers obviously when LeBron comes back, we'll see where it goes with Westbrook. I'm done talking about Westbrook. I just think he's a disaster. I don't care what happened last night. And then Grizz, Mavericks would be the third tier. And then it drops

again to Sacramento, Portland, Minnesota, San Antonio. But my question is, should the Mavs even be on the Grizz tier? Are they a tier lower even with Luka? There's things they can do. They've got to move things. The other thing I think is hard with Dallas because the time for Carlisle was clearly over. But the one thing he was really

good at was trying new things. He wasn't just going to do the same thing over. And we'll see how Kidd does. Kidd's going to have to make some adjustments. They've got a road trip coming up where they play Phoenix twice on the road and the Clippers twice on the road. We'll see. My guess would be after that road trip, adjustments start happening, unless they start playing a heck of a bit than they have so far. So you have like six in the West, then it drops. In the East,

the East is bizarre because Brooklyn, who knows what they're going to look like in May? Who knows what Milwaukee is going to look like when they have all their guys back. I could see them winning 20 straight. Who knows how long Miami can stay healthy. And then who knows with Philly how the Simmons thing plays out. But you figure that's the top four, at least on paper. But then you could argue Chicago is probably a safer bet than every team I just mentioned, except Milwaukee and Miami, because that team can score.

I got that one wrong. I thought they were going to be a fantasy team. When you watch them, they make sense. Sometimes just rosters make sense. They did a really nice job of like Ken Lonzo, DeMar DeRozan, Zach Levine, and Vooch all make sense together, and who would be the perfect fifth guy? Pat Williams gets hurt. Caruso is the perfect fifth guy. The perfect fifth guy.

Literally perfect. So now they have this five-man rotation that when I watch basketball on a Wednesday night like last night, I like their five guys as much as anybody I'm watching. Are you seeing the same thing? I think the way to look at it with the Bulls, as we're talking about skill sets, it's about finding roles. Okay, in Chicago, I've got Zach Levine, primary scorer.

Derrida Rosen, primary playmaker. Lonzo and Caruso, elite defensively spot-up guys. Vooch, high post, passer, secondary scorer. Mismatch destroyer, Vooch. Certain teams where it's like, I got this, guys. Yeah, the Mavs played KP on him and it didn't work very well, but

anyways. And so not only do all five of those guys have their own role, it's like within those roles, okay, Lonzo and Caruso, not the best shooters. Lonzo actually is shooting pretty well. But okay, Levine's a great shooter. DeRozan, same thing. So it's like when skill sets

intersect like that, it allows guys to play bigger than what they are. It's a sum is better than their parts, right? I think that's the biggest thing is all their top five players have roles to where they can all be good without taking away from anybody else, right? Of those top five guys,

the only guy who's really taking a step back is Vooch, basically. Everyone else is the best version of themselves in this team and all their skill sets align. And that's when you can kind of get magic happening. And that's what's happening in Chicago right now. Yeah. One of the things I love to look at is just like, what kind of shots are you getting in the last six minutes of a game? Just what are you getting? And that's why I have trouble with guys like De'Aaron Fox and Colin Sexton, who ironically goes out last night and you watch the Cavs in that Wizards game. They end up losing at the tail end

because Kuzma made two threes. But clearly their best backcourt is Garland with Rubio together. Because those guys get, Garland gets good shots for himself. Rubio can create shots for all kinds of guys. And it's just the team flows better. When I watch the Bulls, they just seem to have real options at all kinds of guys. And it's just the team flows better. When I watch the Bulls,

they just seem to have real options at the end of games. Like they're hard to play. When you're going against them, you're like, damn it. Like, all right, Levine has the ball, but you don't really want to go one-on-one with Levine. You want to at least shade somebody over. But then if DeRozan has any sort of space at all, it's done. He makes everything from 15 to

20 feet. You got Vucevic lurking around and then Caruso, who's made big shots for three years now. Yeah. And then Lonzo is just really fun to play with. Like there was a play last night that I think Zach got a technical foul on, but he thought he got fouled and went back the other way. They get a stop. And did you see Lonzo just zings like a 58-yard line drive right to Levine? He had the double reverse. Yeah, he did the 360. It's like Lonzo's fun to play with.

And I'll never understand why New Orleans didn't want him. I'm going to always be bummed out Boston couldn't get him last summer. It seemed like it was called in. But yeah, I was wrong on the Bulls. I didn't expect this. I know for the Mavs, you're like, man, Lonzo and Caruso, those are two killers to have next to a guy who doesn't play defense in Levine. That's who Luka needs. And if there's one thing, to last Mavs point, Frank Milikina could be one of those guys. That to me is the one thing

for Dallas. You got to find these guys who can guard multiple positions. And they've got two, and that's covering up DeRozan and Levine on defense. And it's like finding these, you got to find these guys who can guard multiple positions. And they've got two and that's covering up DeRozan and Levine on defense. And it's like that intersection, everybody just fits together. It looks good. So they lost to the Knicks by one in a really good game. They lost two to Philly.

Basically four days away from each other. And other than that, they've beaten anybody. And they have a couple of good wins. Like they beat Utah. They beat Brooklyn. They beat the Toronto Cincinnati Bob Huggins 1993 Toronto Raptors.

What do you think of that team? That team should just full-court press. Seems like that would be the final piece for them. They just, they're like a full-court press away from being the single most annoying team for another team to play that we've had in like 20 years. They've got to figure out the Siakam thing because they were playing well without him.

They're bringing him back. I'm very curious if they can play Siakam, OG, and Barnes together. That, to me, is a really interesting frontcourt. But Siakam, I think, has played two games and looked kind of up and down. He's got to get back into a rhythm. So for them, you kind of got to wait and see how he looks and how he's going to fit in with the rest of these new guys.

Or if that's a trade. Yeah, I watched the whole Celtic game last night. There were four TVs going. They were at one point trying to play Siakam at center. And to your point, like just going with the centerless, super athletic lineup, didn't really work. They lost by like 16, but Barnes has been a delight. And I shout out to some of our ringer people because I couldn't see it.

I don't follow college nearly the way you guys do, but I, it certainly seemed like it was going to be a project. I could see like the end result at age 25. I didn't see a world where he was going to come in right away and be a two-way guy like this. He's got, he's just got it. You can see it. And I thought it was really telling when Durant, who doesn't usually do this, but when he does it, he means it and it matters in that press conference after you played him where he, he had like a minute long monologue about Scottie Barnes, how good he was.

And it's like, that's, you know, you're good when you're a rookie and KD is going to do a monologue after the game about you. Yeah. I wasn't a huge Barnes guy. I was, I think I was too caught up in the lack of a jumper, but he's just so big and fast. And I think that the early rookie thing is Scotty Barnes, Franz Wagner, Josh Giddy less than Evan Mobley. It's like really, really big, really fast guys who are pretty smart and skilled. And that skill set, those three, the first three for sure, they've come in like gangbusters

and just been great at the start of the season. Well, Mobley was a huge win for us. We were pretty adamant about that one. I tried to tell people. That was a good one. I'm kind of actually shocked by how advanced he is. We talked about it already in the pod, but I just don't see if there's a redraft.

I don't see how he doesn't go first. From just even what we've seen in 10 games, and people are going to be like, oh, Cade's playing his way back. He looked good last night. I just think it's so much harder to find somebody like Mobley. For sure. It's like a once every five years situation,

whereas there's a guard every year in the draft. And that's what we were talking, I remember we were doing that pod with us and Kyle and KOC back for the draft with Mobley. I think the thing people got caught up with Mobley, what happened was he played on this really poorly put together USC team with no guards. And like, oh, well, he's in like limited offensive. He's got, it's like, yes, he's a seven foot guy with some guard skills, but he needs some guards. And at college, well he's in like limited offensive. He's got, it's like, yes, he's a seven foot guy with some guard skills, but he needs some guards. And at college he didn't have them. He had no guards and no shooting and his true abilities are somewhat hidden.

But it was like, when you look at his actual traits, it's like absolutely huge, absolutely fat, very, very rare to have that, that size, that speed,

that skill. And with Mobley, the thing was truly, truly crazy about this guy is this is a guy who could be a defensive player of the year and also average a triple-double.

That's his ceiling. He's got the elite passing plus the elite defense. And you just never see it at a player that size. I think, I'll just go ahead and say, I think Ed Mobley has a chance

to be the best player in the NBA one day. I think that's the kind of thing we're looking at as a guy who's truly that level, that kind of big man, who's really a guard. It's like there's never been a guy with his size and speed and his feel for the game. That combined together has allowed him to just do things that are really, I mean, for a 19-year-old, they're playing three seven-footers together and it's still working. Because Mobley's just that good. I 100% agree.

I think out of, if you look at the guys who have come into the last five or six drafts, really since Giannis, oh, Luca. So Luca, Luca would be the last one. Who has a chance to be the most impactful guy in the league?

I, I, instead of best, I would use more impactful. Like who has the best chance to just be on winning teams and to be the most impactful guy in the league. I, I, instead of best, I would use more impactful, like who has the best chance to just be on winning teams and to be on teams that contend for titles and win titles. Moby's, I think the safest bet of anybody from at least the last three drafts. And then if you're going to go last 10 years, he's on that list just because we know, like, if he hits the ceiling of all the stuff that we can see already,

those guys win titles. Those guys are in conference finals. Those guys, year after year, are going to be in the mix because you can so easily build around those skills. Yeah, and I wrote a big piece about this before the start of the season. And I think the big trend right now, and I think the next few years of the league, and you're seeing it also with the two guys in this year's draft, Paolo and Chet, is I think the next few years of the league, and you're seeing it also with the two guys in this year's draft, Paolo and Chet, is I think the worm is completely turned now where big men, the best big men are just guards

who happen to have the size of big men. And it's like Bonchero, I don't know if you've seen him yet. It looks ridiculous. Have you watched the Duke game the other night? I didn't see it. It's very fun to watch. But he's basically like, what if a center played like Carmelo Anthony? And they're like, you know what? Don't even be a center. Just do like

face up to dribble pull-ups. Oh, I'm 6'10", 235 and I'm doing this. And to me, that's where the game is going. I think the reason Cade went above Mowgli is because people were still caught up in the big wing thing. Okay. It's a big wing and play point. And yes, that was the thing for a while, but the new thing is just seven footers who play like guards. And yes, that was the thing for a while. But the new thing is just seven footers who play like guards. And I look at like Giannis, KD, Anthony Davis. To me, those are the kind of players who win championships. Mobley can be in that category as he gets older. Those are the kind of guys I want at the top of the draft. Those are the ones. If I have a seven footer who can be a guard, I'm going to beat you. I don't care about your guards.

My guard is seven feet tall. Right. You can find the guards. There's a million guards now that are really good. It's an embarrassment of riches. I just, just quick tangent, like Giannis, I watched the last two Bucks games where he was kind of like, I'm tired of losing.

I'm just, I'm just going to have to try harder, even though I try really hard every game. And he's basically, he's basically a center now. He's like a 2021 version of a center. But the way he protects the rim and his confidence on both ends and just all the stuff he learned from the playoffs last year, it's just mesmerizing to watch. I think he's at the peak of his powers.

I've got a take for you, actually. I'm going to run this by you. Let's hear it. I'm thinking, I'm looking, I'm Giannis, and I'm saying, okay, this team with me, Drew, and Chris, this is the team for next year or two, but I'm 26. I have a long career ahead of me. I've got to start thinking like KD and LeBron. What do those guys do? They try to find

the other star who fits their game. They recruit them to their team. To me, if I'm Giannis, the guy I'm texting right now is Carl Anthony Towns. I'm telling him, Minnesota, this is over. You're never going to win there. You come here, I got you on defense and you got me on offense. How is anybody ever going to guard Giannis at the rim and Kat three-point line? That's not defensible. And then your defensive issues, I got you.

It's cool. And if I have those two seven-footers together, we're running through the league. That's my move if I'm Giannis right now. But they have no picks left. Just for three years from now? Yeah. It's a long-term thing. How long did LeBron talk to Anthony Davis?

True. How long did Katie talk to Kyrie and James Harden? These things go, they take years. It's time to play the long game. Okay. Katie should have picked different guys to talk to. Well, that's the game at the highest level, right? I tweeted last night,

my three favorite rookies were Mobley, Barnes, and Wagner. My guy, Franz, he's been killing it too. So it leads to a bummer. And look, the Warriors are having an awesome season. I wish they had taken Wagner over Kaminga. For sure. It's actually like a shame. And we were saying that when we did our pre-draft special.

He was kind of the perfect Warriors pick because the hoops IQ and just his ability to fit in and play multiple positions. It's a shame they didn't take him on top of everything else that they have going. I really think he would have fit in nicely. Well, you know what's crazy? You could run it back if they had just taken... I mean, obviously, hindsight

is 20-20, but we did say it beforehand, too. We did. They could have just taken LaMelo and Franz. They could have went Steph, Clay, Lamello, Franz, Green. That five, forget about it. It's over. It's too bad. It feels like they took Kaminga because

they got seduced by the upside and really because he's probably they thought a better trade asset. If they're trying to make a move in January, February, who has more trade value? Seems like that was the reason for that pick. But Wagner would have been really nice.

A couple other guys that I mentioned on Twitter last night. Shengun has been as advertised. I don't know what he is, but he's something. He's definitely something. Things are going to happen with him. It's a shame he didn't end up on the Spurs.

I wish they had taken him. I think he would have been a really fun Spur with their weird team. And Giddy, obviously, the ball just... I like the way the ball kind of moves when he's involved. He just seems like he'd be fun to play with. Those guys always make it. And then, just random

dudes. Dawson Mew on Chicago. I might have seen his best game, but he was impressive as like a possible 3 and D guy. And then I like Herb Jones. I thought Herb Jones was like the one bright spot of the most terrible New Orleans season possible so far. But they got him, was it the 35th pick?

He seems like an actual NBA player to me. And then obviously, you know, everybody else, I need more time. Duarte looks fine, but we're not surprising. Duarte is old as me and you. Right. Nobody's surprised by that. Suggs is in a weird

spot only because with Cole Anthony, I think it's clearly Cole Anthony's team. I'll be interested to see. But that five-man lineup, somebody posted that yesterday about the Bamba, Carter, Wagner, Suggs, and Anthony is

the best five-man lineup by plus minus right now. So I thought that was a good sign. But I like this draft. I like Davey Mitchell. I think we ended up with 12 or 13 good ones, right? Yeah. And what it really comes down to, it's all about, like I was saying, how these guys are

being put on teams and like with giddy what makes you really interested in that is like i feel like you can make an sga giddy thing work where sga is the primary scorer yep and can guard a lot of positions giddy can do like a secondary passing thing well sga gets buckets i think that's what excites me is when you get combinations of players i'd say with Suggs I think it's possible like my comp for him was like as like the ceiling was probably Drew Holiday like we all want him to be like a Damian Lillard type but maybe his best scenario

is kind of being the secondary combo guy who kind of does things and guards and I think that might work in Orlando too maybe we'll see yeah it's a good draft alright I think we hit everything Sharks how you doing people always want to know how you feeling these days think that might work in Orlando too. Maybe we'll see. Yeah, it's a good draft. Um, all right. I think we hit everything. Sharks. How you doing? People always want to know how you feeling these days. Good news is I finished chemo last week, which is like unbelievable. I can't even,

I can't even talk about it. So that's good. It's like, it's just been such a crazy journey for me. I was telling my wife, so me and my wife, we had our first kid right before the pandemic and then the pandemic hits. And then as that's starting to ease up, I get cancer. And then I'm going through chemo for like six months. And so it's like in this two year journey where I'm like, and now I'm getting out of like, where the hell even am I? Like what is going on? So I think like things are going well. Um, the one thing is it's really hard for me with my, what my situation is, is because I have like my, my cancer is a very rare kind where it's a lot of very, very small tumors.

So the doctors are never going to be able to say, Oh, like your cancer is gone. We took it out of your body. Life goes on. Like I'm always going to have to have like to deal with this and worry if it comes back. But all I can do now is just live the best life I can. And my doctor told me, he says, he goes, you know, I don't know if it will come back. I am not the person who decides these things. And I said, yeah, you're not. There's not much I can do about it, but trust in God and just live the best life I can

and watch some basketball, man. Well, you've been incredible to work with, an incredible guy to get to know and an inspiration, I think, to everybody. But it's been awesome to see how you've handled this the last year or so. Well, thanks. I really appreciate that.

And I appreciate all the support. Everyone's been awesome. All right. Great to see you Charks next time we'll do this with Kyle we'll do a little three way we can do a redraft or something we'll get him to talk about Poku who is the last

person at the ringer who believes in Poku I think even KOC has given up right Kyle's fading on him too but maybe Kyle and KOC I'm not sure well Poku's gonna have this second career in some country Kyle Kyle's fading on him too, but well, maybe Kyle Kyle and KOC. I'm not sure. Well, Poco is going to have this second career in some country that will be getting clips of him five years from now. They Poco 48 in Russia last night. Here we go.

All right. Good to see you. All right. Have a good one. All right. He joins us every Thursday. Peter Schrager is here from Good Morning Football and from Fox Sports. We had another kind of lousy week last week. We lost $345,000 on million dollar

picks, but we're still up $579,000 for the season. This is going to be our biggest week of the year. I'm telling you now. Remember, are you old enough to remember Crazy Eddie? Of course. He's going to sell you all of this stuff. This is the biggest sale I've had all year. This is going to be the biggest week we've had. I like a ton of games. There's some underdog stuff I like. It's just every once in a while,

the schedule just comes your way with a bunch of things, a bunch of presents. It's like Santa Claus coming down the chimney. Before we do that though, tell us how you're Odell stuff. You went to the Rams today. I don't want to spend too much time on this because he honestly has not been an impact

player in five years and I want to calm down on it at the same time. It's, but he's better than Josh Reynolds. The Rams needed a third receiver. Like this is a good thing for them. It's so funny. You say Josh Reynolds. So Bill, when Josh Reynolds was released, I got from my sources in the, in the Rams organization, like, all right, I think we're going to make a play for Josh Reynolds. And I he was traded to Cleveland. At the end of the day, Odell and McVay had seen each other out in LA. They connected. There was no tampering. It was just one of those deals like, all right, this guy's cool. This guy's cool. Someday I'll play for you. Ha ha ha. Like one of that stuff, whatever. Turns out it never got very far because Cleveland and the Giants, Cleveland offered first round pick. The Rams weren't

going to offer that. So this thing comes around and McVay got on the phone himself and he made a call to Odell and was basically like, what are you looking for? Because you can come here and be a part of a team and it's for eight weeks or maybe more, whatever it is. You can A, have a great time with a bunch of these veterans, B, rehab your image, do whatever you want with that. And C, we're going to get you the rock. Like, don't worry, this isn't Deshaun Jackson. Deshaun Jackson is a different type of player than Odell Beckham. And what they're looking at is, let's go four wide.

Let's get Cooper Cup. Let's get Robert Woods. Let's get Van Jefferson. And let's get Odell out there. And they view Odell as a different type of receiver as Deshaun Jackson or Josh Reynolds. Jefferson and let's get Odell out there. And they view Odell as a different type of receiver as Deshaun Jackson or Josh Reynolds. And the pitch was basically like, come and join this ride and you're going to enjoy this. You're going to be in LA. It'll be you and me. It'll be these guys.

And then once McVay got going, then it became Jalen Ramsey, FaceTiming him. It became Vaughn Miller. Vaughn Miller hasn't been around yet. By the way, this was your basketball prediction. You said this was the February buyout Brooklyn Nets move. This was it. Going all in. This is the Brooklyn Nets going out and getting LaMarcus Aldridge when they already just got Blake Griffin. This is what it was. And the last point that I love, and this comes from someone else other than McVay, but it's

Jalen Ramsey's FaceTiming him. And apparently Odell asks Jalen, like, Hey, I just want to make sure, do you think the rest of the wide receivers are going to be cool? I just want to, I don't want to upset an Apple cart. Like if I'm coming in, trust me, I'm coming in. So Jalen Ramsey brings his phone with Odell on FaceTime and brings it into the wide receivers room and basically faces it at them. And it's like, are you guys cool with Odell? And they're all like, yeah, let's go. Let's bring him in. So Odell's coming.

And like the fact that like Vaughn Miller's recruiting him and he's like, dude, we need you. Like they're all in. And it's one of these deals where we talked about last week with Vaughn Miller, but the other veterans feed off it. And for this one, they're paying him basically what they were going to pay to Sean Jackson. It's a rental.

If it works out and they can resign-sign him, that's great. If not, let's see where it goes. But they don't view this as, oh my God, here comes Oda Beckham. He's going to throw Matt Stafford under the bus like he did to Baker or to Eli. This is a different deal right here. It's a bunch of veterans who all very much acknowledge that this is the best shot I have at winning a Super Bowl and we're all in for this one season.

Well, they can also cut him if it doesn't work out. Exactly right. Yeah, it's not a lot of money going on here. I was wondering, what do you think he was holding out for? Because I thought, I don't know if it was attention

or he didn't find the right team or it seemed like he was milking it. At one point I was thinking, is he waiting until Sunday's games to see who's in the playoff picture? Because there's so many things in motion on Sunday and Monday for the playoffs that we're really going to have a, by Tuesday, we're really going to have a feeling for the playoff picture. I was wondering, was he looking at that? What do you think? I think he's always wanted to play in LA. He's always wanted to play for McVay and,

you know, right out of the gates and you've got good NFL reporters, but you heard the teams, Packers, Chiefs, Patriots, Saints, who I can tell you, Saints actually tried trading for them before the trade deadline. Like they were actually, but you know, it was, do you want to be the number one on the New Orleans Saints and get 30 receptions and maybe, you know, or, or do you want to be here and like play in the playoffs and maybe win a Superbowl and you can still be yourself and do the whole thing. And be in a giant city where you can just disappear and be a celebrity.

Yes. And not Odell Beckham in New Orleans where, you know, he grew up in Louisiana. Or Kansas City. The last point that was made to him, which I loved, was basically the pitch

that the Rams made realized like, you know, since you went to LSU, you've never gotten to choose where you could play. Like this is the first time ever you can choose. He's never been a free agent. he's never had the opportunity to do that so they really put it to him like would you choose to play anywhere else than here like it's up to you what do you want and they play it to his i you know because the one thing with odell and i covered him when

he's at the giants i've gotten to know a lot of people like teammates love him aside from the situations with baker and eli which are major like he's never not two quarterbacks he's actually thrown his both his quarterbacks under a bus yeah other than that the confidence is that like the rest of the team they all look at him he works hard he's not he's not an a-hole and like whatever went down with his seem like an a-hole yeah look i guess i guess maybe i'm talking out of both sides of my mouth because you you do a sit-down with Josina Anderson and Lil Wayne and say, Eli can't get you the ball in week seven, that's actually not great teammate stuff.

But they're optimistic that this thing is going to work out. But this is a football thing. We've seen this with receivers. When they feel like either the supporting cast or the QB isn't to their standards, there's a history of meltdowns with this. I think it's a good risk for them. I actually really think they needed a third receiver.

And you think of like the Madden quality they have now, where it's like just the four-ride receiver Madden play. That's just like, do I have four receivers? Do I have to illegally trade for somebody so I can stack my team as I'm trying to win a title in Madden? And this is kind of what they did. It's 10 personnel.

It's like, let's just go. Let's do it. Spread it out. Spread it out. Helps the running game. Yeah. I think it's going to be a hard team to coach

would be the one thing I would say. I know McVay was your co-host once upon a time. But you have these big personalities. Yeah. It becomes like the, it becomes like, I don't know.

You're basically running a movie set that has 20 big actors on it and everybody's going to want their moment. And we saw it a couple weeks ago. I thought they lost their composure a little bit. Or was it last week? I can't remember. One of those games last week. Yeah, they lost their composure.

And Jalen Ramsey specifically. I don't know. Everyone wants to say, oh, this could be like the dream team Eagles, right? And I would counter, I think it feels more like the 95 Niners when it was like free agency started and Dion's coming and Ken Norton's coming and Charles Haley's coming. And it's like, oh, we've already got Ricky Waters and bar none Floyd. Like, let's add another guy. Let's add another guy.

And it was just veterans. And the circle on that is that McVeigh's grandfather was the GM of that team. And it was like, talent can be put together. It will not, if these guys are all committed

to the cause, we can do it. I hear what you're saying. I hated those Gary Marshall, like Valentine's Day movies and New Year's Day and all those things where it was just like,

here's Seth Meyers and 11 other stars. It's a Gary Marshall movie. I still think Tampa's the team to beat. We have a couple things that tie into this Rams thing. There's a couple teams this week, and this is a small segue into Million Dollar Picks, but not

really. There's a couple teams this week that are at the fork in the road point of the season. Oh, yeah. It's kitchen sink time. Do you like kitchen sink time? I think the Niners are a kitchen sink team. Okay.

I think this Raiders-Chiefs game is a kitchen sink game on both sides. Monster game. Monster game. I think we should... And Vikings-Chargers, I think for the Vikings,

is a kitchen sink game. The Vikings are still in it. They're in it. So let's talk about these three because Raiders Chiefs, just a multi-year history now of the Raiders getting up for these

games where usually the Chiefs had way more talent. This time around, the Chiefs do not have more talent. Right now, they're 17th in DVOA. The Vegas is 21st. I think I test Vegas is probably slightly better. But I was trying to look. I was trying to think of other teams we've had

where we just kind of wait for the light bulb to go on and it just never happens, right? Just in recent history. Good point. Because last year, the Bucs, it did happen, right? The Bucs, it did happen. It happened, yeah. So here's a couple.

The Colts in 2010. Okay. After they make the Superbowl, it's kind of the last mania area gets hurt the year after Colts in 2010 start six and six. Okay. We're waiting. We're waiting. We're waiting. What is this? They're not covering what's going on. Going a little four game winning streak near the end. Chargers wild bad teams lose to the jets in the wildcard jets in the wildcard. Jets in the wildcard round. But it had, the whole season had kind of an odor to it. And you kind of knew by week eight, week nine.

2012 Saints, the Bounty Gate year when Peyton suspended. They started at 0-4. Yep, rallied. Is it going to come on? They have so much talent. I can't, nope, didn't happen. They finished 7-9. 2014 Niners, after the Super Bowl,

they still have Kaepernick. Start out four and two, doesn't feel right. Finish eight and eight. Okay. 2019 Pats, this is the weirdest one. They start out eight and oh, soft schedule, great defense. They finished 12 and five. They go four and five over their last nine. And there was this point during it where people are looking at each other going, is this team good? Wait a second. Are you like, are we just doing past performance?

Yeah. And do you remember assessing that they're good? And then that the Steelers last year, they beat the Bills on a Saturday night. Everyone's like, all right, they're back. They're back.

They're back. We wanted it so bad, but then we lost week 17 to the Dolphins. You're like, wait, what? And then they lost in the, obviously in the, in the track record was there. And the Steelers is the last one. The to the Dolphins. You're like, wait, what? And then they lost obviously in the playoffs.

Track record was there and the Steelers is the last one. The Steelers started out great, 11-0. Yeah. But then like we hit that week 15, 16, 17 mark

and we're all looking at each other and we're going, that's not, that's not it. Yeah, lost to Bengals, lost to Washington. This is not happening.

Yeah. I feel like the Chiefs have hit that point. I know. And I want to bet against them accordingly. They're 5-4. Their last two games, they should have lost the Giants game.

That was stupid. And then last week, they get Jordan Love, who they just decide, we're just going to blitz every play. They only scored 13 points against the Packers. And it's a whole gimmick that they get by us. So they're 5-4. I think it's really deceiving. I think the Raiders can win this game. It's in Vegas, which I don't care because home field

advantage has been kind of garbage all over the place this year. But I just, you would pencil this in and think, oh, Chiefs, easy. I don't, not even positive why they're favored in this game. I feel like we're getting points. I think this should be a pick them. I think the Raiders last week was a real reason for concern. You look at that team, they came out flat against the Giants. We know what they've been through these last few weeks. It looked like they were an exhausted team, both physically and emotionally.

And Henry Ruggs is not coming back. And Henry Ruggs was the one player that they absolutely went to against Kansas City and Arrowhead last year. He had those huge plays and he was their speed threat. So he's not coming back. So you say, okay, well, he shouldn't be coming back. All right, well, we've got Zay Jones. We've got Brian Edwards, who's a big body.

We've got Hunter Renfro, who's an underneath guy. They had nothing going on last week. And there were turnovers again. They had no deep anything. Yeah, and some turnovers. So it's like, if this is a shootout, I don't know, based on what we saw last week and based on what personnel they have on the field, like Waller's great and we can get to all these other wide receivers and Foster Moreau and whatever. But I don't know, man, that was a big loss. And I think the combination of the actual player not being there, but then the psychological and the emotional and the just the wear of this season on this team, I'd find it hard to bet for the Raiders. I would bet against the Chiefs, no problem,

but to bet for the Raiders is hard for me right now. I think last week you throw out because of the Ruggs thing. Okay. It had just happened. It was yet another thing they have to deal with in this season of that. And I think now, I like the history of these Raiders-Chiefs games. I also like the fact that the Chiefs offensive line is really banged up now. Yeah, there are injuries.

There's injuries all over the place. And you think that's one of the things the Raiders can do is rush the passer. Now on the other side, the Chiefs D-line is getting a little healthy, but this feels like a pick-em game. The reason I'm looking at it is I just feel like I'm getting two and a half points with the Raiders. Okay, let's go Raiders. And I'm potentially getting a plus 124. Let's mark it down. Okay. Because this is a long-term anti-Chiefs play that we have to look at.

I haven't liked anything that's come out of Kansas City. It's like they're under siege, basically. And it's a take-quick against the Chiefs. They're under siege. Dude, five days a week. Did you feel good about any of the stuff that they said? No. No, no. We'res. They're under siege. Dude, did you feel good about any of the stuff that they said? No, no, we're fine.

We've got this. They're out there trying to get Odell. They're trying to figure out who their second receiver is, how to unlock Kelsey. They want Clyde Edwards to come back

so they have a better running game. Is he going to help their running game? Give me a break. So many things to look at. Like last week, Hardman drops that

third down pass. You're like, gosh, like if you just you just catch that like and then but that's who he is kelsey drops that pass it's so like and then i'm third and ten and everything going like here it is all the marbles mahomes hits tyreek for about 15 they get the first down they put the game on ice and then you see mahomes like pumping his fist and like fired up and like there's a glimmer. There's such a glimmer where you're like, oh my God, that's the team. Those are the guys. And yet it's so bad to beat that Packers team by just six

points at home. Jordan Love was so, so, so underwhelming. Yeah, that was a bad win. I know. I heard Solak talk about this with Sharp yesterday and it triggered and I went and I looked at it. Because he was saying how he didn't think Kelsey looked the same this year. He doesn't.

Now, the stats don't back that up, but I feel the exact same way, eye test-wise. He doesn't seem like a lock. In the old days, it's like, we need 12, go to Kelsey, 38, Kelsey. I went back and I looked at just targets. So guys that have had tight ends that have had 115 plus targets. And you think like, oh, Kelsey's going to do this forever. He's had five straight years where he's had 115 targets or more.

I just picked 115 because it seemed it was able to whittle away some guys. Gonzalez had 10 years over his career where he had 115 targets. Now, I don't even... He was really a wide receiver. He was awesome, but yeah. Yeah, he was awesome. But if you think of him more in a wide receiver context, that makes more sense.

Witten had 7. Kelsey had 5. Jimmy Graham, 4. Kellen Winslow, 4. Gates, 3. Gronk, three. Olsen and Shockey, three. That's it for 115 target seasons. I saw this happen with Coates and I saw this happen with Gronk

where these tight ends that over and over, it's eight, 10, 12, 13 chances a game. It's a shelf life. It's not different than running backs. I don't feel like he's 100% there. With Ben Coates, you could see it. Like overnight, he just lost half a step. Well, Ben Coates was a first-team all-pro two years in a row.

He was incredible. He was amazing. And then all of a sudden, he wasn't as amazing because I think that's one of the hardest. Gronk, same thing. He had a bunch of injuries. I don't feel like Kelsey's there yet, but I'm going to really watch for it this week.

Because it's something worth following because here's the other part. Mahomes is amazing. yet, but I'm going to really watch for it this week. Because it's something worth following because, you know, here's the other part. Mahomes is amazing. You're waiting for it to click, but it doesn't seem like he's reading the coverages as well as some of the other best quarterbacks in the NFL. He always had Kelsey as that security

blanket. If Kelsey's having drops and fumbles... If he's 80% Kelsey, then some of this makes sense, right? If Reid's not on it like he used to be, teams are taking away Tyreek. They can't really run the ball. And none of their other receivers have stepped up, I don't think. Not one guy.

We had LaShawn McCoy on Good Morning Football, who is, by the way, awesome. Yeah, I like LaShawn McCoy. Just add him to the cast. I know. He was great. Sign him. Lock him down. We all were very positive with Shady's good. Yeah, I like LeSean McCoy. Just add him to the cast. I know. He was great. Sign him. Lock him down. We all were very positive with Shady's performance.

He's good. And what he was saying about that Kansas City offense, he's like, never count out Tyreek and Kelsey. I'm like, but what if Kelsey? He's like, yeah. I'm like, well, is Hardman going to step up all of a sudden? Is Robinson suddenly in year five going to be that guy? And Shady's kind of shrugging. He's like, those are good dudes, but you know, I was there for a year and

it's, it's going to come down to Kelsey and Hill. And if Kelsey's not Kelsey, they're not the chiefs. He's in his thirties and he's got a lot of miles on him. So now it's, you know, we, we've talked over and over again about performance and athletes and how you can extend it, but the tight end position is pretty unforgiving. All right, so that's one team. Niners, Rams. I'm on the fence for whether we should include them. The Rams have the toughest schedule the rest of the way. Tampa Bay has the second easiest schedule the rest of the way. And I just think Tampa is going to win that conference.

Their offensive line last week, I thought, got just demolished by Tennessee. It was a demolition. Stafford doesn't seem healthy to me. It seems like he's at the I'm nursing four different injuries stage. That part makes me nervous. Kitchen sink game for the Niners.

And then it's weird. The Niners, who I don't really like that much, but they're ninth in DVOA somehow. The nerds like them for some reason. They've played the fourth hardest schedule so far. And this is a referendum game. This is a game now, like we ran a piece, Solak wrote a piece on the ringer this week about how Shanahan, the personnel guy has kind of crippled Shanahan, the coach, which is a great

angle and pretty true. But this is one of those, like, if you get blown out in this game and your seasons, that's it. What do you do? Like, do you, do you really have to start looking at, is this deeper than just, we haven't had talent and we had some injuries the last couple of years. Like, does this whole philosophy work? So that's why I think it's a kitchen sink game for them. Yeah. I, you know, the Niners, the craziest stat I, I have, and it's, it's one that I've been adding to every time they do it. They have lost their last eight home games. Now, three of those were played in Arizona. In the Silicon Elysium.

They have not won a home game since the NFC Championship game against the Packers. And that feels like it was pre-pandemic. It was so long ago. Is that true? Yes. And it's this weird thing where it's like that crowd who loves their Niners. Don't get me wrong.

Yeah. But they turn on that team very quickly if things don't go wrong. And it's a very, have you seen, have you been, I know you said you went to a wrestling event there once, but have you been to a game there? It's not necessarily like this. Candlestick was such a home field advantage. This thing isn't. And this team does not play well there. they were grilling shanahan all week like is it something about the

pregame routine and he was very curt with reporters as he is uh want to be sometimes but he was like no we do the same thing every time it's not about pregame thing we stay at the hotel because that's what we do like he was there's they don't like What do you do when your team just cannot perform at home? It's a very odd situation. It's not like it's the opposing fans that are in the building. It's diehard Niners fans. They're just frustrated. Well, I think Kittle's playing this week.

Yeah. Elijah Mitchell seems like he's healthier. McClinchy's out, who is a really good tackle. McClinchy's out. That's a bad one. This feels like the game where, like, Debo Sabo throws a pass. Yeah. And there's a reverse on the punt. And you're just doing everything

you can in this game. Well, you mentioned the personnel. It's like, you know, Brandon Ayuk, not only was he a first-round pick, but, like, Shanahan with a kind of chest puffed out is, like, we had him number one on our list. Yeah. He was our number one wide receiver. And that's a draft with Justin Jefferson. And it's a draft with justin jefferson and it's a draft with obviously you know you've got all the you know judy and cd lamb and he's like no no brandon iuk's our number one guy brandon iuk is

barely on the field and when he is seems like he's hurting the team then there's yeah you go right down to this quarterback situation where every week mac jones seems to be putting more and more together and they're still in purgatory with Jimmy or a kid who's not ready yet when everyone thought they were going to be all in this season. Fields. Fields had some moments. Fields looked awesome. Second half.

He's, man. Turns out maybe producing on the big stage might matter sometimes. The other kitchen sink team we have is the Vikings. So I like them more before this really ugly Dalvin Cook saga, which I'm sure is going to take a few weeks to untangle. It seems like he's playing. But you can run on the Chargers. You can run until the cows come home.

Bill, what are we talking about? We lost on them again last week. We had them in the underdog parlay, and they were up by 14 points in the first half. I know. They hurt us. They hurt our feelings. I don't know how you could back them again. Chargers have injuries in the secondary.

Okay. Teams have just figured out how to take out Mike Williams completely. Yep, he is. Six catches last three games. He's done nothing last three games. The Patriots are just like, you're not beating us. And I'm not sure the Chargers are good. Because I didn't think the Pats played well.

And I still feel like they could have won by 20 if a couple good things. I mean, both running backs got concussed. Yeah. You know, it turned out they needed a pick six at some point in that game. But I just, they won last week. Great win.

Great win for them, though. Great win. It didn't blow my socks off, though. I know, but 24 to 24, six minutes left, and Herbert has the ball, and they go and they convert two different fourth down conversions.

They bleed it like it's a cool win. I'll say this. Teams can run all over the Chargers. And the one thing that Minnesota can do, whether it's Cook and it's Madison, they get the run game going. You're right. Kitchen sink game times 100.

But last week was a kitchen sink game. And Kirk Cousins has this great drive with 40 seconds left to tie the game. And they found a way to go to overtime and all this stuff. And they still lose. They had the ball in overtime. They got the ball back on the Anthony Barr pick and then have the most... I think you tweeted out the drive summary.

It was three plays for one yard. Look, the Chargers were 4-1. They got killed by the Baltimore. They had a bye week. They lose to the Pats in a game that I didn't feel like was even as close as a score. And then they barely beat Philly, who I just don't think is good. And we're going to get to them in a split that I didn't feel like was even as close as the score. And then they barely beat Philly, who I just don't think is good.

And we're going to get to them in a split second, but I don't think the Chargers are good. You go back, they lose to Dallas by three. They beat the Chiefs, and we're all excited about that. They win a shootout against the Browns, which was just a weird win. I don't think, I'm just off on them.

And I think Minnesota can beat them. I don't trust Minnesota. I'd rather do the plus three than put them in an underdog thing. But quickly on Philly, and then we'll take a break. Because they're another team that I have in here.

The Broncos are minus two and a half against the Eagles. They completely shut down Dallas' receivers last week. Now, Sertain is out, which is a bummer. It's a bummer. He's been good.

But there's two things. I think they're going to have the ball this entire game, Denver. Like they did last week. So, Javante Williams, who they've been carefully... Yeah.

I have him on every fantasy team, so I've been, obviously, I'm as focused as possible on this. But they finally, he got on Kyle Brandt's angry runs. Yep. He got 17 carries last this, but they finally, he got on Kyle Brandt's angry runs.

He got 17 carries last week, but the history of rookie running back second half of the year, they started unleashing them. We saw Jonathan Taylor was a good example of that. Denver has completed almost 70% of their passes. It's like, all right,

that's a dumb stat, but that's what Bridgewater does, right? He moves the ball. Sure. Short pass is accurate. They're second in the league just in completion accuracy. Phillies last defensively. Their teams are 75.5% completion percentage against Philly. Guys are just open the whole game. I just think this game where Denver has the ball for 40 minutes and that's it and whatever. I don't think Philly's

good. They're playing with $35 million less than the cap. So I like Broncos minus two and a half a lot. You know, I watched that game. Obviously, you did too. And it was from go. It was like every time

you turned it on, they had the ball. And then they didn't just dominated them, just pounding the ball. So it wasn't only Javante. It was Melvin Gordon. And they're running behind

Cush and Barry and Quinn Miners, the rookie. And it was like they were beating the crap outenberry and Quinn Miners, the rookie. And it was like, they were beating the crap out of teams. And they did it the last week against Washington too. It's funny, like Vaughn Miller was having a good season for them before the ankle injury, but it almost feels like something clicked. Like once they traded Vaughn, like the nobody believes in us card suddenly like checked in with the entire locker room because they had lost four in a row. I'd written them off. like they beat terrible teams they lose to good teams i don't think philly's good either i think denver's really really sound they don't make mistakes

fangio has a good defense no matter who's out there and it's in denver which is one of the few places we have a home field advantage philly's two and six in their last eight. The two wins where they beat Carolina by three. No McCaffrey. And then they killed Detroit. Congratulations. Detroit's 0-8. That's it. Those are their only wins. I don't get why this line isn't higher, but I'm not going to ask questions.

Alright. We're going to take a break and talk about the other two games. Let's talk P's Browns. Pat's minus one and a half. We've been riding the Patriots. I don't think Harris is going to play. I think Ramondre will play. I think we'll see some JJ Taylor and some Brandon Bolden.

Look, the Browns, it's a team that if they can make a couple of big plays, it feels a little different than if Baker has to go down the field on you. And I think Belichick is just going to make sure that Baker slowly methodically has to go down the field. He knows, he knows what to do. Keep hitting Baker. Keep knocking him around. Keep trying to put them in third and five, third and six. We're not going to have Chubb in this game, which it doesn't sound like. Well, if there's a chance tomorrow and Saturday or Sunday, he gets the job. I'm going to bank on no Chubb. I just think they're going to beat them. I'm in on this

Pats team. I'm in on the front seven. I think it's a good team. And I think to get less than a field goal at home against the Browns, I'm taking it. A couple of questions. Who do you think has more at stake in this game? Mack or Baker? I think the Patriots have more at stake in this game because they have to

play Atlanta on Thursday night. Yep. So they've got Buffalo twice coming up. This is, this is the biggest 120 hours of the season for them because you figure best case scenario, they split the Buffalo games, but they're five and four.

They could legitimately be five and six in 120 hours. You're right. So this is, can't fuck around with the Browns. I think they can run on them. I think they can control the ball and move the ball. The Garrett part scares me. Like there's no question. Garrett could control the ball and move the ball. The Garrett part scares me. There's no question. Garrett could hit the shit out of Mac Jones. Did you hear Belichick talking

about him? Belichick was talking about Garrett as if it was LT. That's how he was talking about him, and I think he's being honest with that. That's the big X factor, and I think Trent Brown might be coming back. That's the word, and that helps. There's some decent Isaiah Wynn

stuff. Evan Lazar, who is a good Pats beat writer, was tweeting out some Isaiah Wynn numbers this week. And I was like, alright. Only one sack allowed. Might not have been a spot. I feel good. But I think

this is a Baker game. I think this is a Baker versus Belichick game. And I think Belichick will game. I think this is a Baker versus Belichick game. And I think Belichick will figure out how to basically defang Baker in this game. I think Baker is a limited quarterback. You know, back in 2018, and I reported it for NFL Network on the draft and everyone was like,

it was a big story at the time. I'm like, it was the day after, but Baker went one, so it was whatever. But if Baker had slipped out of one, I know that the Patriots were very interested in moving up with Brady on the roster to go get Baker. So they had this great feeling of respect for him. I wonder if Baker elevates his game on this stage

with everyone wondering about his future. Because here's the deal. Baker, if they lose, they're five and five. They'll figure it out. Whatever. Maybe they're a wild card. Maybe they're not. Like, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield to me

were the two most interesting quarterbacks going into this season because there are these looming contracts. And it's like, what do you pay Lamar Jackson, who, you know, if we don't pay him, like, what's his value? Lamar's been amazing. Baker?

Can Baker Mayfield demand $35 million this off season? No, it's not happening. So what do you do if you're Cleveland? Do you just say, we'll go for a fifth year and we'll ride this out? If he wins these type of games though, he can make a real argument for himself that like, yeah, my stats aren't the best and my physical stature is not Josh Allen or Lamar, but I win those games. I get them done for you. Going into New England? I would tell him to settle down

if he gave me that argument. How many times do you think he's thrown for 250 yards this season? Against the Chargers, maybe? Twice. Chargers and Cardinals? I just think, I think there's certain guys in the league

that when the team is up early and they're playing with a lead, it's completely different to have them as the QB. Then everything falls into place for them. If it's a nail-biter game, if it's a dogfight, if it's, uh-oh, we're down seven, if the QB actually has to make some plays, I'm sorry, but Baker's playing with one arm.

The Pats are going to hit the shit out of them. Their front seven's really good. They're going to hit the shit out of him in this game. Nick Chubb's one of the top 10 players in the league. I can't imagine he's playing. He legitimately had COVID. It's not like he had COVID proximity. He had COVID.

So the rule is, if he can have two straight negative tests and has no symptoms, he can play. Now, the honor code on the symptoms part, but if he has two straight negative tests, he can play. And he's got a few days for that. But he's that good. And Ernest Johnson has been fine as a number two, but... I like him. He's all right. Felton's out

because of COVID. Chubb and then obviously Hunt. So it's like, all right, Baker, you might have to go win this game on your own, on offense. Jarvis, you're just not catching anything today. Belichick will take him out. They won't let Peoples Jones go deep. You don't get to go deep in this game.

And then they're going to hit the shit out of Baker. And I think the defense wins this game. I like the Pats. How about the Pats being red hot with everyone crapping all over us, dude? Isn't it great? We'll have the last laugh. Last game.

The Falcons. Plus nine against the Cowboys. Last game. The Falcons plus nine against the Cowboys. Explain this one to me. Yeah. Cowboys they lose Gregory this week. Yeah.

They've already lost to Marcus Lawrence. They had two pass rushers of the entire team. Last week part of the problem with that Broncos game was they had no pass rush at all.

Like Bridgewater had time. They were running the ball down their throats. And I think that defense, which was able to get some turnovers in the first four or five weeks of the season, which always kind of throw it off. But the longer we're going with this team, defense just isn't that good. And I think the Dan Quinn stuff, teams, whatever, they obviously had some game tape to look at. Now, I really like their offense. But, you know,

Matt Ryan's been pretty good the last few weeks. They can move the ball. I'm looking at that plus nine. I'm looking at the, even if it's like, all right, Dallas is up 14 last two minutes. I can get a cheap touchdown. I think they can hang around in this game, though,

and I like the plus nine. I think they can win this game. Yeah, I do, too. I honestly do. And I like the plus nine. I think they can win this game. Yeah, I did too. I honestly do. And you mentioned the defensive injuries, you know, Michael Parsons had a big game last week, but a lot of that was two and a half sacks and like 11 tackles. But in a game where you lose by 30 points, it's not, you know, it's hard to hang your hat on that. Yeah. I guess Parsons is there still the pass rusher. Yeah. So they had three pass rushers. They're down to one. I'm sorry. I'm sorry Dallas fans. It's all right. So the Dan Quinn piece is interesting because obviously he's a defensive

coordinator, but what team knows Dan Quinn better than the Atlanta Falcons? Right. Right? So in comes Matt Ryan, who's looking at the Dan Quinn defense, which, okay, it's this for inferior players than what I was against in Atlanta. He's like, I saw this every single practice for years. There's a weird stat. There's never been a head coach who took a team to the Super Bowl play against that team

who's been a defensive coordinator. So he's had offensive coordinators come back. Interesting. But there's never been a defensive coordinator. I think, I don't know, maybe I'm being Pollyanna on this and Matt Ryan is, but I feel like he's a really cerebral quarterback,

knows that defense inside and out, knows that scheme, and I think he could pick it apart. And guess what? Patterson is really good. It's one of the weirdest later career resurgences I can remember. It's a little like Julius Randle-ish.

That's it, with the Knicks. Like if Julius Randle did this three years from now, not like last year. He you're going nine here in the league and he he's like and he's also like like a little chirpy like they interviewed him um James Palmer from the NFL Network interviewed him after the game and he's like oh there's no sweeter feeling and there's no better sound than a silent superdome and you're like whoa yeah, where'd you come from? Nine years in, he's their go-to guy. Pitts is fine. Gage is fine. They don't have Ridley for now. We'll see what happens with Ridley, but like this team is, can move the ball on offense. And Matt Ryan is a veteran quarterback

who knows that defense. I like, I might take them outright. I like it. And who's covering Pitts on the Cowboys? I don't know. I like that game. But I like it more if we can push that. We can nudge the Falcons up to 10 and a half. Come on, let's go. Minus 130, which means we would have to put them with a big favorite to try to even out the money, which we like to do from time to time. We could do Falcons to plus 10 and a half with Bucks

just to win minus 450. Love it. That's plus 116. Or we could do Falcons plus 10 and a half with cards minus 500. That's plus 112. I'm more partial to the Bucks.

I say that knowing that there's some receiver stuff. Now, this is where I give you my fantasy sleeper for this weekend because I picked him up in two leagues. I think it's Tyler Johnson week. Kyle, turn the camera on. Let's go.

It's Tyler Johnson week. Here we go. I think Brady likes him. I've seen him make good plays in big spots. Two of the clutchest plays last year against the Saints. Third and eight. They go to Tyler Johnson. Yeah.

We don't have Chris Godwin. I think they're okay. I think Tyler Johnson can do a Chris Godwin impersonation. And I think Brady sniffs it. He's very aware of

what their schedule is, what's going on with the Rams, the Rodgers stuff, MVP possibilities. I think they run the slate. I don't think they lose again. I think this is it

and it starts this week. They did it last year. They went on their bye. They came out. They beat Minnesota in kind of a slugfest and then they never lost a single game

after the bye. This is usually when he gets going too. So plus 116 for that combo. I also would say Washington's defense, it's amazing.

They're last in the league in past defense. Apparently, Chase Young has been not the greatest guy to be wearing the C on his Jersey this year, as far as like leadership of the defensive unit, there's a disconnect between the defensive coordinator Del Rio and, uh, and the players. I, I think that this is the perfect game for Tampa Bay. They come out there and Tyler Johnson, Cyril Grayson, who had a big touchdown two weeks ago against the Saints.

There's going to be some unlikely names, but Brady's got it. I trust Brady. There's a world also with the Falcons where they could be six and four in 120 hours. Oh, yeah. Or in a week. They could upset with the Cowboys. Oh, my God. Let's go to Dallas where Atlanta scored again.

And then all of a sudden they're beating the Pats four days later. Or I could see them being four and six in a week. Hey, remember when we thought the Falcons might make the playoffs? Remember when we did the whole Falcon spiel? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Underdog parlays.

Falcons are plus 320. 49ers are plus 162. The Raiders are plus 124 against the Chiefs. And the Seahawks, who we have not mentioned, who I think we should stay away from, are plus 154. I just don't know what Rodgers' status is. I think we crossed them off. We'll wipe them out.

So we could do Falcons, Raiders, plus 840. Wow. And I have good news for you. FanDuel is going to boost that over 10-1 for us. Falcons Raiders 10-1. Both have to win. Were the FanDuel people happy that we lost at the end with the Ravens beating... I think they were. I think they were relieved.

We came so close. We were up 10 in both games. We had the Falcons, and then we were waiting for the Vikings. They get the ball back, and it's like, just get to field goal range. They didn't even give our guy Greg Joseph a chance. Raiders-Vikings is plus 455. Both have to win. Those are two small dogs.

Bum mentioned that. I'm going to throw this at you. Give me something crazy, Bill. Falcons. Yeah. Vikings. Yeah. Raiders.

Yes. Plus 2,223. Bet 100, you win $2,200 basically. 22 to 1 odds, a little higher. Falcons $2,200 basically. 22 to 1 odds, a little higher. Falcons, Vikings, Raiders. It's the mega dog parlay. This is the MDP. We haven't done one of those.

We could put a little 10K flyer on it. Oh my God, I love MDP. The mega dog parlay. The mega dog parlay. We're looking for, Fando asked me if we could figure out a way to nickname Underdog Parlay of the Week

because on their little boost site, because they love the boost, but call it like the Mega Dog or whatever. So if anybody has any suggestions, send it to Schrager's Twitter replies. Send it to me. All to my Twitter. I check it all day. And then you can yell at him for saying let's go too much. That's the other

thing. Although you cut back. This is your lowest let's go too much. That's the other thing. Although you come back, this is your lowest let's go rate you've had in a while. I don't kiss your ass on the Patriots. I toned it down. Let's just go. Meanwhile, we're taking the Patriots again. Of course. By the way, two things on the Patriots. 10th in DVOA last five weeks.

Okay. Plus 60 point differential for the season. Evil Mac Jones. I know. What's the twist thing? Evil Mac Jones. What'd you make of it? Wrestling Evil Mac Jones. I know. What's the twist thing? Evil Mac Jones. What'd you make of it? Wrestling heel Mac Jones.

I think he needed an identity. He was like just the guy who was pretty steady. Did he give himself to you guys? Like the Patriots? I loved it. I loved it. Did you?

I love that Brian Burns wanted an apology. You're a fucking football player. You knocked out two of our running backs. Are you going to apologize to them? Burns was like, it's crazy.

I look at the NBA and the Jokic's. I read that Jokic's brothers are going to a game. Oh, going to Miami. That's amazing. I thought he just didn't want Burns to get the fumble, so he grabbed his leg. I don't know his intentions. I know it only adds to the myth of the evil

empire. Oh, gosh. I love it. Of course you're leaning into it. The heel. Mac Jones. All right. When we come back, we're going to give you our million-dollar picks for week 10. Hey, before we do

million-dollar picks, I read something about home field advantage this year. I remember when I was, even before Grantland, I'm going to say 2008, 2009 for ESPN, I wrote a big piece about home field advantage was starting to change. Because when I was growing up, the home team would win like 70% of the time, 75% of the time.

It was a lot. There was a real home field advantage. It started to shift in the mid 2000s. I spent like three days working on this piece. I was looking at records and coming up with all these theories, like whether it was people just like being at home with their TVs or they didn't want to be out and had all these theories. And home field shifted a little bit. And then it kind of stabilized. Now it's even, right? If anything, I think road wins more than home. It's unbelievable. Last year, 2020, so COVID, road teams won more than home teams. I'm not talking about covering the spread. I'm talking about winning. That's crazy.

It started to happen in 2019. The home teams were 132 and 123 and one. So there were only nine games over 500. This is pre-COVID. Yeah. By far the worst record we've had. This year, after Sunday's games, home teams were 65 and 70. And then Pittsburgh won at home. So now it's 66 and 70. We're taping this before we see who wins the Miami game. So home teams, just to win, are underins. So home teams just to win are under 500. So weird. And what's happening, I did some research on it. Um, the, the old rule of you get three points if you're home, Vegas has basically thrown that out. And I think that's kind of thrown off my internal calibration. Now it's like one to one and a half points for being home. It's

really interesting. So like the Broncos in the old days is just like, oh, there's Broncos three and a half. Now it's Broncos two and a half. Cause they don't really feel like home. It doesn't even matter where the game's being played. So I tried to factor that into some of these picks this week, but here we go.

The million dollar picks. Oh, wait, before we do this, we didn't talk about Tennessee and the Saints. Tennessee's favored by three against the Saints. I wanted to take the Titans. Kamara might not play, who knows?

Trevor Simeon looks too easy. It's fishy. There's a fishiness to that line. Titans playing great. Kicked the Rams ass last week. Defense looking awesome. They figured I had to play with Derrick Henry. Something scares me about it.

I'm staying away. I don't know. This is a Michael Conrad, let's be careful out there game. I'm staying away. Too fishy. Too easy. You mentioned it though.

Is it fishy when your defense is just awesome? Because that's the one thing I would say. Jeffrey Simmons and Danico Autry and Kevin Byard playing playing like a defensive player like the offense you could say what their defense is really good don't you think their defense could just dominate that saints depleted offense there and all very possibly i'm staying away okay i don't know why the line's not three and a half or four i can't figure it out because this is Trevor Simeon injured Camara. Michael Thomas is never coming back apparently. And I just think it seems like the Titans, they seem so easy.

Anyway, stay anyway. Here we go. The million dollar picks for week 10. We are up 579,000 for the season. We've had two losing weeks in a row. Schrager, we've lost almost a million dollars the last three weeks. It hurts.

And we're going to win all of it back this week. We're opening up a little bit. Let's go. Patriots minus one and a half against the Browns. Bill Belichick unlocking Baker Mayfield,

putting him in a body bag and sending him back to Cleveland. We're putting 400K on this. 400K? The Atlanta Falcons. We are nudging them. They're plus nine in Dallas. We're going to nudge that over the 10 mark. Plus 10 and a half.

Yeah. Minus 130. Well, we need something to put with it, a little chaser, like a cranberry and vodka, like a nice martini. Bucks minus 450. Bucks just have to beat Washington. Washington, disarray. Get them out of here. You put those two together, plus 116. I like that. Falcons plus 10 and a half bucks just to win. Grabbing that. What makes you nervous out of that between those two?

The Falcons, I just, you know. The Falcons just getting demolished. Yeah, I'm in though. I'm in. I've seen Matt Ryan win a lot of big games and then the next week, not win a big game. They call him Matty Ice. He's really Matty Garbage Time.

There's nobody you want more when you're down 13. Third one, a possible one of the locks of the year for me. Broncos at home. Let's go big on this. We're going to do 400K. We're putting that with the other two. Broncos, 400K, minus two and a half against this crappy Philly team

that's two and six in their last eight that desperately wants to be one of the worst 10 teams in the league because they have three first-round picks. They're so excited to see the draft board. People are like, oh, my God. The Eagles, they got 3-7-9. Jesus. Holy mackerel.

They don't care about this game. If they cared, they'd be playing my guy Minshew. Now they're throwing out Jalen Hurts again. Teddy Bridgewater reigning all over them. Just completions, completions, completions. Javante Williams. A Kyle Brandt

angry run special. Two weeks in a row. So that's it. Broncos, 400K, 2.5. Now we're going to do two more. Whoa, Bill. 200K Vikings, plus three over the Chargers. 200K Raiders plus two and a half over the Chiefs. Okay.

And then the underdog parlay boosted up by FanDuel, our friends at FanDuel, who we burned once. We cost them $2.5 million two weeks ago. It almost happened again. We almost cost them like $4 million last weekend. And now we're going to do it again. Falcons, Raiders boosted from plus 840 to 10 to 1.

Love it. We're going to be putting 33K on that. And just for fun, just for shits and giggles. Just a little bit of this. 10K, a little sprinkle, splash the pot. Hey, your favorite number is 33, obviously. My favorite number, I'm a Walt Frazier guy. Do you know Walt Frazier's number?

12K? Is it 12? What was Frazier, 10 or 12? I think it's 10. Who was 12? Is Earl Monroe 10? Yeah, Earl Monroe was 10. 12?

Who was, what number was Walt Frazier? Oh no, we have to look this up. It's a million dollar Picks monkey wrench. Walt Frazier. This is so funny Look at these images Coming up Oh he was number 10

10 I thought 10 Well Earl Monroe Was 15 right Right Earl Monroe was 15 Little 10k splash Why not Falcons

Vikings Raiders The mega dog parlay 10k Plus Two Two thousand Twenty

I We went Two hundred twenty two Thousand I, we went two hundred twenty two thousand dollars if we win this. I'll get Walt Frazier to do a cameo for you if we hit this. Let's go.

Well, Walt would say this was an audacious parlay. Stupendous. All right. Hey, what's, which one are you most

excited about of all those million dollar picks? I love it all. I love the big one. And I think that the Falcons beating the Cowboys. Dan Quinn coming in there. Matt Ryan looking at it laughing and saying,

I know this defense. You know what's going to be hilarious about that Falcons game? They're going to be up 20 to 7 in the third quarter. And we're going to be texting each other. And then Matty Ice is going to start doing the stuff he does. We know this going in. We know he might hurt our feelings. I don't know what your text chains are like with Hench

and with Mina Kimes and Danny Kelly, but all Bill and I text, it's just the name of the team and an exclamation mark. Like, we'll go, Falcons! Exclamation mark. That's it. That's the entire text chain. It's just team! Exclamation mark. And it's like, oh, something happened in that game. Let's toss it on. Yeah, that's it that's the entire text chain it's just team! it's like oh something happened

in that game let's toss it on yeah that's it those were the million dollar picks for week 10 can't believe we're in week 10 already

we can see Peter Schrager on Good Morning Football with Kyle Brandt Kyle and I and Kay Adams and LaShawn McCoy the new America's New Dream Team

we hope Kyle and I are doing a little Wall Streeters action on Friday morning. So if you're listening, wake up. It's going to hopefully

be the best one yet. We play two Wall Street idiots and we have a blast with it. Excellent. All right. And you see you on Fox as well. Thanks for coming on as always. You're the man.

All right. That's it for the podcast. Thanks to Jonathan Sharks. Thanks to Peter Schrager. Don't forget about the Music Box series coming on HBO and HBO Max November 18th. That's a week away. Don't forget to follow on Spotify the new Plain English podcast with Derek Thompson. And don't forget, if you love Taylor Swift, we spun out every single

album with Nathan Hubbard and Nora Princiati. And they're going to be when Red Taylor's version comes out, I think late night tonight, they're going to have a pod ready to go on Friday as well. Lots of good stuff happening at the Ringer Podcast Network. Enjoy the rest of the week. I will see you here on Sunday. I don't have.